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Sample records for adult mortality risk

  1. Cardiometabolic Risk Factors Among US Adolescents and Young Adults and Risk of Early Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Saydah, Sharon; Bullard, Kai McKeever; Imperatore, Giuseppina; Geiss, Linda; Gregg, Edward W.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To determine the risk of mortality associated with cardiometabolic risk factors in a national sample of adolescents and young adults. METHODS Prospective study of participants in the third NHANES (1988–1994), aged 12 to 39 years at the time of the survey (n = 9245). Risk factors included 3 measures of adiposity, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level, cholesterol levels, blood pressure, self-reported smoking status, and cotinine level. Death before age 55 (n = 298) was determined by linkage to the National Death Index through 2006. Proportional hazards models, with age as the time scale, were used to determine the risk of death before age 55 years after adjusting for gender, race/ethnicity, and presence of comorbid conditions. RESULTS After adjusting for age, gender, and race/ethnicity, results of categorical analyses showed that current smokers were at 86% greater risk for early death than those classified as never smokers; that those with a waist-to-height ratio >0.65 were at 139% greater risk than those with a WHR <0.5; and that those with an HbA1c level >6.5% were at 281% greater risk than those with an HbA1c level <5.7%. Neither high-density lipoprotein nor non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol measures were associated with risk for early death. CONCLUSIONS Our finding that risk for death before age 55 among US adolescents and young adults was associated with central obesity, smoking, and hyperglycemia supports reducing the prevalence of these risk factors among younger US residents. PMID:23420920

  2. Variability modifies life satisfaction's association with mortality risk in older adults

    PubMed Central

    Boehm, Julia K.; Winning, Ashley; Segerstrom, Suzanne; Kubzansky, Laura D.

    2015-01-01

    Life satisfaction is associated with greater longevity, but its variability across time has not been examined relative to longevity. We investigated whether mean levels of life satisfaction across time, variability in life satisfaction across time, and their interaction were associated with mortality over 9 years of follow-up. Participants were 4,458 Australians initially ≥50 years old. During the follow-up, 546 people died. Adjusting for age, greater mean life satisfaction was associated with reduced risk and greater variability in life satisfaction was associated with increased risk of mortality. These findings were qualified by a significant interaction such that individuals with low mean satisfaction and high variability in satisfaction had the greatest risk of mortality over the follow-up period. In combination with mean levels of life satisfaction, variability in life satisfaction is relevant for mortality risk among older adults. Considering intraindividual variability provides additional insight into associations between psychological characteristics and health. PMID:26048888

  3. Dietary magnesium intake is inversely associated with mortality in adults at high cardiovascular disease risk.

    PubMed

    Guasch-Ferré, Marta; Bulló, Mònica; Estruch, Ramon; Corella, Dolores; Martínez-González, Miguel A; Ros, Emilio; Covas, Maribel; Arós, Fernando; Gómez-Gracia, Enrique; Fiol, Miquel; Lapetra, José; Muñoz, Miguel Ángel; Serra-Majem, Lluís; Babio, Nancy; Pintó, Xavier; Lamuela-Raventós, Rosa M; Ruiz-Gutiérrez, Valentina; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi

    2014-01-01

    The relation between dietary magnesium intake and cardiovascular disease (CVD) or mortality was evaluated in several prospective studies, but few of them have assessed the risk of all-cause mortality, which has never been evaluated in Mediterranean adults at high cardiovascular risk. The aim of this study was to assess the association between magnesium intake and CVD and mortality risk in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk with high average magnesium intake. The present study included 7216 men and women aged 55-80 y from the PREDIMED (Prevención con Dieta Mediterránea) study, a randomized clinical trial. Participants were assigned to 1 of 2 Mediterranean diets (supplemented with nuts or olive oil) or to a control diet (advice on a low-fat diet). Mortality was ascertained by linkage to the National Death Index and medical records. We fitted multivariable-adjusted Cox regressions to assess associations between baseline energy-adjusted tertiles of magnesium intake and relative risk of CVD and mortality. Multivariable analyses with generalized estimating equation models were used to assess the associations between yearly repeated measurements of magnesium intake and mortality. After a median follow-up of 4.8 y, 323 total deaths, 81 cardiovascular deaths, 130 cancer deaths, and 277 cardiovascular events occurred. Energy-adjusted baseline magnesium intake was inversely associated with cardiovascular, cancer, and all-cause mortality. Compared with lower consumers, individuals in the highest tertile of magnesium intake had a 34% reduction in mortality risk (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.45, 0.95; P < 0.01). Dietary magnesium intake was inversely associated with mortality risk in Mediterranean individuals at high risk of CVD. This trial was registered at controlled-trials.com as ISRCTN35739639. PMID:24259558

  4. Positive affect and mortality risk in older adults: A meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yujing; Han, Buxin

    2016-06-01

    We performed a meta-analysis on the relationship between positive affect (PA) and mortality risk in older adults (55 years and older) and reviewed evidence on the Main Effect Model and the Stress-buffering Model of PA. Four databases (ISI Web of Knowledge, APA PsycNET, PubMed, and Embase) were used to identify potential studies. Three types of effect sizes (ESs), odds ratio, relative risk, and hazard ratio (OR, RR, and HR), were calculated and analyzed within a random effects model. The analysis of the studies in which the effects of other variables were not controlled indicated that older adults with higher levels of positive affect had lower mortality risk (75%, HR = 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66-0.85) than those with lower positive affect. In studies in which the effects of covariates were controlled, this rate was 85% (HR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.81-0.89), which was still significant. These results suggest that higher positive affect is associated with lower mortality risk in community-dwelling older adults, even after controlling for medical, psychological, and social factors. The results point to potential methods of improving longevity, and to achieving healthy aging in older adults. PMID:27113246

  5. Abnormal Heart Rate Turbulence Predicts Cardiac Mortality in Low, Intermediate and High Risk Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Stein, Phyllis K.; Barzilay, Joshua I.

    2011-01-01

    Introduction We examined whether heart rate turbulence (HRT) adds to traditional risk factors for cardiac mortality in older adults at low, intermediate and high risk. Methods and Results N=1298, age ≥65 years, with 24-hour Holter recordings were studied. HRT, which quantifies heart rate response to ventricular premature contractions, was categorized as: both turbulence onset (TO) and turbulence slope (TS) normal; TO abnormal; TS abnormal; or both abnormal. Independent risks for cardiac mortality associated with HRT or, for comparison, elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) (>3.0 mg/L), were calculated using Cox regression analysis adjusted for traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors and stratified by the presence of no, isolated subclinical (i.e., intermediate risk) or clinical CVD. Having both TS and TO abnormal compared to both normal was associated with cardiac mortality in the low risk group [HR 7.9, 95% CI 2.8–22.5, (p<0.001)]. In the high and intermediate risk groups, abnormal TS and TO ([HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.5–4.0, p=0.016] and [HR 2.7, 95% CI 1.2–5.9, p=0.012]), respectively, were also significantly associated with cardiac mortality. In contrast, elevated CRP was associated with increased cardiac mortality risk only in low risk individuals [HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3–5.1, p=0.009]. In the low risk group, the c-statistic was 0.706 for the base model, 0.725 for the base model with CRP, and 0.767 for the base model with HRT. Conclusions Abnormal HRT independently adds to risk stratification of low, intermediate and high risk individuals but appears to add especially to the stratification of those considered at low risk. PMID:21134026

  6. Dying in their prime: determinants and space-time risk of adult mortality in rural South Africa

    PubMed Central

    Sartorius, Benn; Kahn, Kathleen; Collinson, Mark A.; Sartorius, Kurt; Tollman, Stephen M.

    2013-01-01

    A longitudinal dataset was used to investigate adult mortality in rural South Africa in order to determine location, trends, high impact determinants and policy implications. Adult (15-59 years) mortality data for the period 1993-2010 were extracted from the health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in the rural sub-district of Agincourt. A Bayesian geostatistical frailty survival model was used to quantify significant associations between adult mortality and various multilevel (individual, household and community) variables. It was found that adult mortality significantly increased over time with a reduction observed late in the study period. Non-communicable disease mortality appeared to increase and decrease in parallel with communicable mortality, whilst deaths due to external causes remained constant. Male gender, unemployment, circular (labour) migrant status, age and gender of household heads, partner and/or other household death, low education and low household socioeconomic status (SES) were identified as significant and highly attributable determinants of adult mortality. Health facility remoteness was also a risk for adult mortality and households falling outside a critical buffering zone were identified. Spatial foci of higher adult mortality risk were observed indicating a strong non-random pattern. Communicable diseases differed from non-communicable diseases with respect to spatial distribution of mortality. Areas with significant excess mortality risk (hotspots) were found to be part of a complex interaction of highly attributable factors that continues to drive differential space-time risk patterns of communicable (HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis) mortality in Agincourt. The impact of HIV mortality and its subsequent lowering due to the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) was found to be clearly evident in this rural population. PMID:23733287

  7. Body Mass Index Categories and Mortality Risk in US Adults: The Effect of Overweight and Obesity on Advancing Death

    PubMed Central

    Samuel, Lalitha

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. We examined the association of body mass index with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD)–specific mortality risks among US adults and calculated the rate advancement period by which death is advanced among the exposed groups. Methods. We used data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988–1994) linked to the National Death Index mortality file with follow-up to 2006 (n = 16 868). We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the rate of dying and rate advancement period for all-cause and CVD-specific mortality for overweight and obese adults relative to their normal-weight counterparts. Results. Compared with normal-weight adults, obese adults had at least 20% significantly higher rate of dying of all-cause or CVD. These rates advanced death by 3.7 years (grades II and III obesity) for all-cause mortality and between 1.6 (grade I obesity) and 5.0 years (grade III obesity) for CVD-specific mortality. The burden of obesity was greatest among adults aged 45 to 64 years for all-cause and CVD-specific mortality and among women for all-cause mortality. Conclusions. These findings highlight the impact of the obesity epidemic on mortality risk and premature deaths among US adults. PMID:24432921

  8. Risk of Mortality during Four Years after Substance Detoxification in Urban Adults

    PubMed Central

    Gaeta, Jessie; Cheng, Debbie M.; Richardson, Jessica M.; Larson, Mary Jo; Samet, Jeffrey H.

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this analysis was to assess the mortality rate and risk factors in adults, with substance dependence, who are not receiving primary medical care (PC). Date and cause of death were identified using the National Death Index data and death certificates for 470 adults without PC over a period of almost 4 years after detailed clinical assessment after detoxification. Factors associated with risk of mortality were determined using stepwise Cox proportional hazards models. Subjects were 76% male, 47% homeless, and 47% with chronic medical illness; 40% reported alcohol, 27% heroin, and 33% cocaine as substance of choice. Median age was 35. During a period of up to 4 years, 27 (6%) subjects died. Median age at death was 39. Causes included: poisoning by any substance (40.9% of deaths), trauma (13%), cardiovascular disease (13.6%), and exposure to cold (9.1%). The age adjusted mortality rate was 4.4 times that of the general population in the same city. Among these individuals without PC in a detoxification unit, risk factors associated with death were the following: drug of choice [heroin: hazard ratio (HR) 6.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6–31.1]; alcohol: HR 3.7 (95% CI 0.79–16.9) compared to cocaine); past suicide attempt (HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.96–4.5); persistent homelessness (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.1–5.3); and history of any chronic medical illness (HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.93–4.7). Receipt of primary care was not significantly associated with death (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.34–2.1). Risk of mortality is high in patients with addictions and risk factors identifiable when these patients seek help from the health care system (i.e., for detoxification) may help identify those at highest risk for whom interventions could be targeted. PMID:17221296

  9. Adult Mortality Attributable to Preventable Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries in Japan: A Comparative Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Ikeda, Nayu; Inoue, Manami; Iso, Hiroyasu; Ikeda, Shunya; Satoh, Toshihiko; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Imano, Hironori; Saito, Eiko; Katanoda, Kota; Sobue, Tomotaka; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Naghavi, Mohsen; Ezzati, Majid; Shibuya, Kenji

    2012-01-01

    Tobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the two major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan. There is a large potential population health gain if multiple risk factors are jointly controlled. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22291576

  10. Association between risk factors for coronary heart disease in schoolboys and adult mortality rates in the same localities.

    PubMed Central

    Freeman, W; Weir, D C; Whitehead, J E; Rogers, D I; Sapiano, S B; Floyd, C A; Kirk, P M; Stalker, C R; Field, N J; Cayton, R M

    1990-01-01

    Risk factors for coronary heart disease were compared in fifth year boys (15-16 years old) from two schools that were chosen from localities with a fourfold difference in adult mortality from coronary heart disease. One school was in an underprivileged urban locality in the area of increased incidence of heart disease ('high risk') and the other in a semi-rural affluent locality with an incidence of heart disease similar to the national average ('low risk'). Smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, obesity, physical fitness, and inactivity were evaluated as risk factors for coronary heart disease. Smoking, increased body fat, poor diet, and physical inactivity were found increased among pupils from the school in the high risk area compared with those in the low risk area. Lipids, maximum oxygen uptake, and hypertension were similar in both schools. The risk of coronary heart disease seems to reflect the adult mortality rates in the area. To reduce the overall incidence of coronary heart disease, health education should be directed towards prevention of smoking, improving diets, and increasing amounts of activity among school children, with special attention directed toward children in regions where there is a high mortality from coronary heart disease among adults. PMID:2301987

  11. Isolated Systolic Hypertension in Young and Middle-Aged Adults and 31-Year Risk for Cardiovascular Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Yano, Yuichiro; Stamler, Jeremiah; Garside, Daniel B.; Daviglus, Martha L.; Franklin, Stanley S.; Carnethon, Mercedes R.; Liu, Kiang; Greenland, Philip; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Isolated systolic hypertension (ISH), defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥140 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) <90 mm Hg, in younger and middle-aged adults is increasing in prevalence. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to assess the risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) with ISH in younger and middle-aged adults. METHODS CVD risks were explored in 15,868 men and 11,213 women 18 to 49 years of age (mean age 34 years) at baseline, 85% non-Hispanic white, free of coronary heart disease (CHD) and antihypertensive therapy, from the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry study. Participant classifications were as follows: 1) optimal-normal blood pressure (BP) (SBP <130 mm Hg and DBP <85 mm Hg); 2) high-normal BP (130 to 139/85 to 89 mm Hg); 3) ISH; 4) isolated diastolic hypertension (SBP <140 mm Hg and DBP ≥90 mm Hg); and 5) systolic diastolic hypertension (SBP ≥140 mm Hg and DBP ≥90 mm Hg). RESULTS During a 31-year average follow-up period (842,600 person-years), there were 1,728 deaths from CVD, 1,168 from CHD, and 223 from stroke. Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for age, race, education, body mass index, current smoking, total cholesterol, and diabetes. In men, with optimal-normal BP as the reference stratum, hazard ratios for CVD and CHD mortality risk for those with ISH were 1.23 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03 to 1.46) and 1.28 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.58), respectively. ISH risks were similar to those with high-normal BP and less than those associated with isolated diastolic hypertension and systolic diastolic hypertension. In women with ISH, hazard ratios for CVD and CHD mortality risk were 1.55 (95% CI: 1.18 to 2.05) and 2.12 (95% CI: 1.49 to 3.01), respectively. ISH risks were higher than in those with high-normal BP or isolated diastolic hypertension and less than those associated with systolic diastolic hypertension. CONCLUSIONS Over long-term follow-up, younger and middle-aged adults with ISH

  12. Dietary Sodium Content, Mortality, and Risk for Cardiovascular Events in Older Adults: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

    PubMed Central

    Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P.; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V.; Murphy, Rachel A.; Newman, Anne B.; Bauer, Douglas C.; Harris, Tamara B.; Yang, Zhou; Applegate, William B.; Kritchevsky, Stephen B.

    2016-01-01

    Importance Additional information is needed on the role of dietary sodium on health outcomes in older adults. Objective To examine the association between dietary sodium intake and mortality, incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), and incident heart failure (HF) in older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants We analyzed 10-year follow-up data from 2,642 older adults (age 71-80) participating in a community-based, prospective cohort study (inception 1997-98). Exposure Dietary sodium intake at baseline was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). We examined sodium intake both as a continuous and as a categorical variable (<1500mg/d [N=291; 11.0%]; 1500–2300mg/d [N=779; 29.5%]; and >2300mg/d [N=1572; 59.5%]. Main Outcomes Adjudicated death, incident CVD, and incident HF over 10-years of follow-up. Analysis of incident CVD was restricted to those without prevalent CVD (N=1981) at baseline. Results Average age of participants was 73.6±2.9 years; 51.2% were women; 61.7% white; and 38.3% black. After 10 years, 881 participants had died, 572 developed CVD and 398 developed HF. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, sodium intake was not associated with mortality (HR per 1g, 1.03; 95%CI 0.98–1.09; P=0.27). Ten-year mortality was nonsignificantly lower in the 1500–2300-mg group (30.7%) compared to the <1500-mg (33.8%) and >2300-mg (35.2%) groups; P=0.074. Sodium intake >2300mg/d was associated with nonsignificantly higher mortality in adjusted models (HR vs. 1500–2300 mg/d, 1.15; 95%CI 0.99–1.35; P=0.072). Indexing sodium intake for caloric intake and body mass index did not materially affect the results. Adjusted HR for mortality was 1.20 (95%CI 0.93–1.54; P=0.16) per mg/kcal sodium and 1.11 (95%CI 0.96–1.28; P=0.17) per 100mg/kg/m2 sodium. In adjusted models accounting for the competing risk of death, sodium intake was not associated with risk for CVD (HR per 1g, 1.03; 95%CI 0.95–1.11; P=0.47) or HF (HR per 1g, 1.00; 95%CI 0.92–1

  13. Risk Factors for Increased Hospital Resource Utilization and In-Hospital Mortality in Adults With Single Ventricle Congenital Heart Disease.

    PubMed

    Collins, Ronnie Thomas; Doshi, Pratik; Onukwube, Jennifer; Fram, Ricki Y; Robbins, James M

    2016-08-01

    Most patients with single ventricle congenital heart disease are now expected to survive to adulthood. Co-morbid medical conditions (CMCs) are common. We sought to identify risk factors for increased hospital resource utilization and in-hospital mortality in adults with single ventricle. We analyzed data from the 2001 to 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample database in patients aged ≥18 years admitted to nonteaching general hospitals (NTGHs), TGHs, and pediatric hospitals (PHs) with either hypoplastic left heart syndrome, tricuspid atresia or common ventricle. National estimates of hospitalizations were calculated. Elixhauser CMCs were identified. Length of stay (LOS), total hospital costs, and effect of CMCs were determined. Age was greater in NTGH (41.5 ± 1.3 years) than in TGH (32.8 ± 0.5) and PH (25.0 ± 0.6; p <0.0001). Adjusted LOS was shorter in NTGH (5.6 days) than in PH (9.7 days; p <0.0001). Adjusted costs were higher in PH ($56,671) than in TGH ($31,934) and NTGH ($18,255; p <0.0001). CMCs are associated with increased LOS (p <0.0001) and costs (p <0.0001). Risk factors for in-hospital mortality included increasing age (odds ratio [OR] 5.250, CI 2.825 to 9.758 for 45- to 64-year old vs 18- to 30-year old), male gender (OR 2.72, CI 1.804 to 4.103]), and the presence of CMC (OR 4.55, CI 2.193 to 9.436) for 2 vs none). No differences in mortality were found among NTGH, TGH, and PH. Cardiovascular procedures were more common in PH hospitalizations and were associated with higher costs and LOS. CMCs increase costs and mortality. In-hospital mortality is increased with age, male gender, and the presence of hypoplastic left heart syndrome. PMID:27291967

  14. Caregiving and risk of mortality and functional decline in white and black elderly adults: findings from the Health ABC study

    PubMed Central

    Fredman, Lisa; Cauley, Jane A.; Satterfield, Suzanne; Simonsick, Eleanor; Spencer, S. Melinda; Ayonayon, Hilsa N.; Harris, Tamara B.

    2012-01-01

    Context Although caregivers report more stress than non-caregivers, few studies have found greater health decline in older caregivers. We hypothesized that caregivers may be more physically active than non-caregivers, which may protect them from health decline. Objective To evaluate total, and race- and gender-specific risk of mortality and functional decline in elderly caregivers versus non-caregivers, and whether these associations were mediated by total physical activity (including daily routine, leisure-time exercise, and caregiving activity). Design and setting The Health, Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) study, a cohort study of 3075 healthy adults, aged 70–79 years in 1997–1998 who resided in Memphis, Tennessee or Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and were followed through their eighth year of participation. Participants Participants were classified as caregivers (n=680, 22%) or non-caregivers (n=2369) if they reported providing “regular care or assistance for a child or a disabled or sick adult”. Main Outcome Measure All-cause mortality and incident mobility limitation, defined as reported difficulty walking ¼ mile or climbing 10 steps on two consecutive semi-annual contacts. Results Overall, 20.6% of caregivers died and 50.9% developed mobility limitation, versus 22.0% and 48.9% of non-caregivers, respectively. Associations with health outcomes differed by race and gender. Mortality and mobility limitation rates were 1.5 times higher in white caregivers compared to non-caregivers (e.g., among white females, adjusted hazards ratio for mortality, HR = 1.6, 1.0–2.5), but were lower in black female caregivers versus non-caregivers (e.g., HR for mortality = 0.9, 0.5–1.4). Physical activity mediated these associations in most race-gender groups. High-intensity caregivers (i.e., spending ≥ 24 hours/week caregiving) had elevated rates of decline when adjusted for physical activity, but lower rates when not adjusted for it. Conclusion Older white

  15. Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and adult mortality.

    PubMed

    London, Andrew S; Landes, Scott D

    2016-09-01

    This study examines the relationship between self-reported ADHD and adult mortality over a four-year period, and whether ADHD is associated with underlying cause of death (accidents versus all others). If ADHD increases mortality risk through accidents, then interventions may be designed and implemented to reduce risk and prevent premature death. We estimate descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression models using data from the 2007 U.S. National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) Sample Adult File linked to National Death Index (NDI) data through 2011 (N=23,352). Analyses are weighted and standard errors are adjusted for the complex sampling design. We find that the odds of dying are significantly higher among those with ADHD than among those without ADHD net of exogenous sociodemographic controls (adjusted odds ratio=1.78, 95% confidence interval=1.01, 3.12). Although marginally non-significant, accidental death is more common among those with ADHD than among those without ADHD (13.2% versus 4.3%, p=0.052). Few population-representative studies examine the relationship between ADHD and adult mortality due to data limitations. Using NHIS data linked to the NDI, we are only able to observe a few deaths among adults with ADHD. However, ADHD is associated with significantly higher odds of dying for adults and results suggest that accidents may be an underlying cause of death more often for decedents with ADHD. Future research should further examine the mechanisms linking ADHD to adult mortality and the extent to which mortality among persons with ADHD is preventable. Regular measurement of ADHD among adults in the NHIS is warranted. PMID:27343403

  16. Anemia, Blood Transfusion Requirements and Mortality Risk in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Adults Requiring Acute Medical Admission to Hospital in South Africa

    PubMed Central

    Kerkhoff, Andrew D.; Lawn, Stephen D.; Schutz, Charlotte; Burton, Rosie; Boulle, Andrew; Cobelens, Frank J.; Meintjes, Graeme

    2015-01-01

    Background. Morbidity and mortality remain high among hospitalized patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in sub-Saharan Africa despite widespread availability of antiretroviral therapy. Severe anemia is likely one important driver, and some evidence suggests that blood transfusions may accelerate HIV progression and paradoxically increase short-term mortality. We investigated the relationship between anemia, blood transfusions, and mortality in a South African district hospital. Methods. Unselected consecutive HIV-infected adults requiring acute medical admission to a Cape Town township district hospital were recruited. Admission hemoglobin concentrations were used to classify anemia severity according to World Health Organization/AIDS Clinical Trials Group criteria. Vital status was determined at 90 days, and Cox regression analyses were used to determine independent predictors of mortality. Results. Of 585 HIV-infected patients enrolled, 578 (98.8%) were included in the analysis. Anemia was detected in 84.8% of patients and was severe (hemoglobin, 6.5–7.9 g/dL) or life-threatening (hemoglobin, <6.5 g/dL) in 17.3% and 13.3%, respectively. Within 90 days of the date of admission, 13.5% (n = 78) patients received at least 1 blood transfusion with red cell concentrate and 77 (13.3%) patients died. In univariable analysis, baseline hemoglobin and receipt of blood transfusion were associated with increased mortality risk. However, in multivariable analysis, neither hemoglobin nor receipt of a blood transfusion were independently associated with greater mortality risk. Acquired immune deficiency syndrome-defining illnesses other than tuberculosis and impaired renal function independently predicted mortality. Conclusions. Newly admitted HIV-infected adults had a high prevalence of severe or life-threatening anemia and blood transfusions were frequently required. However, after adjustment for confounders, blood transfusions did not confer an

  17. Marital Trajectories and Mortality Among US Adults

    PubMed Central

    Beck, Audrey N.; Meadows, Sarah O.

    2009-01-01

    More than a century of empirical evidence links marital status to mortality. However, the hazards of dying associated with long-term marital trajectories and contributing risk factors are largely unknown. The authors used 1992–2006 prospective data from a cohort of US adults to investigate the impact of current marital status, marriage timing, divorce and widow transitions, and marital durations on mortality. Multivariate hazard ratios were significantly higher for adults currently divorced and widowed, married at young ages (≤18 years), who accumulated divorce and widow transitions (among women), and who were divorced for 1–4 years. Results also showed significantly lower risks of mortality for men married after age 25 years compared with on time (ages 19–25 years) and among women experiencing ≥10 years of divorce and ≥5 years of widowhood relative to those without exposure to these statuses. For both sexes, accumulation of marriage duration was the most robust predictor of survival. Results from risk-adjusted models indicated that socioeconomic resources, health behaviors, and health status attenuated the associations in different ways for men and women. The study demonstrates that traditional measures oversimplify the relation between marital status and mortality and that sex differences are related to a nexus of marital experiences and associated health risks. PMID:19584130

  18. All-cause, drug-related, and HIV-related mortality risk by trajectories of jail incarceration and homelessness among adults in New York City.

    PubMed

    Lim, Sungwoo; Harris, Tiffany G; Nash, Denis; Lennon, Mary Clare; Thorpe, Lorna E

    2015-02-15

    We studied a cohort of 15,620 adults who had experienced at least 1 jail incarceration and 1 homeless shelter stay in 2001-2003 in New York City to identify trajectories of these events and tested whether a particular trajectory was associated with all-cause, drug-related, or human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related mortality risk in 2004-2005. Using matched data on jail time, homeless shelter stays, and vital statistics, we performed sequence analysis and assessed mortality risk using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and marginal structural modeling. We identified 6 trajectories. Sixty percent of the cohort members had a temporary pattern, which was characterized by sporadic experiences of brief incarceration and homelessness, whereas the rest had the other 5 patterns, which reflected experiences of increasing, decreasing, or persistent jail or shelter stays. Mortality risk among individuals with a temporary pattern was significantly higher than those of adults who had not been incarcerated or stayed in a homeless shelter during the study period (all-cause SMR: 1.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14, 1.59; drug-related SMR: 4.60, 95% CI: 3.17, 6.46; HIV-related SMR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.21); all-cause and HIV-related SMRs in other patterns were not statistically significantly different. When we compared all 6 trajectories, the temporary pattern was more strongly associated with higher mortality risk than was the continuously homelessness pattern. Institutional interventions to reduce recurrent cycles of incarceration and homelessness are needed to augment behavioral interventions to reduce mortality risk. PMID:25660082

  19. Comatose and noncomatose adult diabetic ketoacidosis patients at the University Teaching Hospital, Zambia: Clinical profiles, risk factors, and mortality outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Kakusa, Mwanja; Kamanga, Brown; Ngalamika, Owen; Nyirenda, Soka

    2016-01-01

    Background: Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is one of the commonly encountered diabetes mellitus emergencies. Aim: This study aimed at describing the clinical profiles and hospitalization outcomes of DKA patients at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH) in Lusaka, Zambia and to investigate the role of coma on mortality outcome. Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional analytical study of hospitalized DKA patients at UTH. The data collected included clinical presentation, precipitating factors, laboratory profiles, complications, and hospitalization outcomes. Primary outcome measured was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Results: The median age was 40 years. Treatment noncompliance was the single highest identified risk factor for development of DKA, followed by new detection of diabetes, then infections. Comatose patients were significantly younger, had lower baseline blood pressure readings, and higher baseline respiratory rates compared to noncomatose patients. In addition, comatose patients had higher baseline admission random blood glucose readings. Their baseline sodium and chloride levels were also higher. The prevalences of hypokalemia, hypernatremia, and hyperchloremia were also higher among comatose patients compared to noncomatose patients. Development of aspiration during admission with DKA, pneumonia at baseline, development of renal failure, and altered mental status were associated with an increased risk of mortality. Development of renal failure was independently predictive of mortality. Conclusion: The mortality rate from DKA hospitalizations is high at UTH. Treatment noncompliance is the single highest identifiable precipitant of DKA. Aspiration, development of renal failure, altered sensorium, and pneumonia at baseline are associated with an increased risk of mortality. Development of renal failure during admission is predictive of mortality. PMID:27042416

  20. Development of a Modified BODE Index as a Mortality Risk Measure Among Older Adults With and Without Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

    PubMed Central

    Roberts, Melissa H.; Mapel, Douglas W.; Bruse, Shannon; Petersen, Hans; Nyunoya, Toru

    2013-01-01

    The BODE index was developed as a prognostic mortality risk tool for persons with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). It incorporates 4 measures: body mass index, lung obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity. The intent of this study was to examine how well a BODE-like index constructed using a simpler lung function measure, peak expiratory flow, in combination with physical functioning and symptom information more readily found in survey data (a quasi-BODE index), performs in identifying persons at higher risk of mortality and whether it may be extended as an assessment of mortality risk to persons without diagnosed COPD. Using US national survey data from the Health Retirement Study for 2006–2010, each unit increase in the quasi-BODE index score was associated with a multiplicative 50% increase in mortality risk (odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval: 1.41, 1.59). The quasi-BODE index is a multidimensional health status instrument based on the BODE index, which is a good predictor of mortality. The quasi-BODE index was compiled using simple measures of physical and respiratory function. It is a potentially useful prognostic instrument for older adult populations with or without COPD, including those with severe physical limitations, particularly when combined with demographic factors and comorbid conditions. PMID:23928262

  1. Second Cancer Risk and Late Mortality in Adult Australians Receiving Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Vajdic, Claire M; Mayson, Eleni; Dodds, Anthony J; O'Brien, Tracey; Wilcox, Leonie; Nivison-Smith, Ian; Le Marsney, Renate; Daniels, Benjamin; Ashton, Lesley J

    2016-05-01

    We quantified the risk of second cancer and late mortality in a population-based Australian cohort of 3273 adult (≥15 years) allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients (1992 to 2007). Most recipients received nonradiation-based conditioning and a peripheral blood graft from a matched related donor. Using record linkage with death and cancer registries, 79 second cancers were identified a median of 3.5 years after transplantation. The competing-risk adjusted cumulative incidence of second cancers was 3.35% (95% CI, 2.59 to 4.24) at 10 years, and the cancer risk relative to the matched general population was 2.10 (95% CI, 1.65 to 2.56). We observed an excess risk of melanoma and lip, tongue, esophagus, and soft tissue cancers. Cancer risk relative to the general population was elevated for those transplanted for lymphoma, some leukemia subtypes, and severe aplastic anemia, recipients who developed chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) and irrespective of radiation-based conditioning or stem cell source. In those alive 2 years after transplantation (n = 1463), the cumulative incidence of late mortality was 22.2% (95% CI, 19.7 to 24.9) at 10 years, and the risk of death relative to the matched general population was 13.8 (95% CI, 12.2 to 15.6). In multivariable modeling, risk of late death was reduced for females compared with males and those transplanted for chronic myeloid leukemia compared with acute myeloid leukemia; risk was increased for recipients with discordant sex donors, cGVHD, those undergoing second transplants, and disease relapse. Adults undergoing allogeneic transplantation have unique cancer and mortality risk profiles that continue to warrant prevention and surveillance activities targeted at high-risk subgroups. PMID:26860637

  2. Traditional and Emerging Lifestyle Risk Behaviors and All-Cause Mortality in Middle-Aged and Older Adults: Evidence from a Large Population-Based Australian Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Ding, Ding; Rogers, Kris; van der Ploeg, Hidde; Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Bauman, Adrian E.

    2015-01-01

    Background Lifestyle risk behaviors are responsible for a large proportion of disease burden worldwide. Behavioral risk factors, such as smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity, tend to cluster within populations and may have synergistic effects on health. As evidence continues to accumulate on emerging lifestyle risk factors, such as prolonged sitting and unhealthy sleep patterns, incorporating these new risk factors will provide clinically relevant information on combinations of lifestyle risk factors. Methods and Findings Using data from a large Australian cohort of middle-aged and older adults, this is the first study to our knowledge to examine a lifestyle risk index incorporating sedentary behavior and sleep in relation to all-cause mortality. Baseline data (February 2006– April 2009) were linked to mortality registration data until June 15, 2014. Smoking, high alcohol intake, poor diet, physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, and unhealthy (short/long) sleep duration were measured by questionnaires and summed into an index score. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used with the index score and each unique risk combination as exposure variables, adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics. During 6 y of follow-up of 231,048 participants for 1,409,591 person-years, 15,635 deaths were registered. Of all participants, 31.2%, 36.9%, 21.4%, and 10.6% reported 0, 1, 2, and 3+ risk factors, respectively. There was a strong relationship between the lifestyle risk index score and all-cause mortality. The index score had good predictive validity (c index = 0.763), and the partial population attributable risk was 31.3%. Out of all 96 possible risk combinations, the 30 most commonly occurring combinations accounted for more than 90% of the participants. Among those, combinations involving physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, and/or long sleep duration and combinations involving smoking and high alcohol intake had the strongest associations with all

  3. THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ADULT MORTALITY RISK AND FAMILY HISTORY OF LONGEVITY: THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

    PubMed Central

    TEMBY, OWEN F.; SMITH, KEN R.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Studies consistently show that increasing levels of socioeconomic status (SES) and having a familial history of longevity reduce the risk of mortality. But do these two variables interact, such that individuals with lower levels of SES, for example, may experience an attenuated longevity penalty by virtue of having long-lived relatives? This article examines this interaction by analysing survival past age 40 based on data from the Utah Population Database on an extinct cohort of men born from the years 1840 to 1909. Cox proportional hazards regression and logistic regression are used to test for the main and interaction mortality effects of SES and familial excess longevity (FEL), a summary measure of an individual’s history of longevity among his or her relatives. This research finds that the mortality hazard rate for men in the top 15th percentile of occupational status decreases more as FEL increases than it does among men in the bottom 15th percentile. In addition, the mortality hazard rate among farmers decreases more as FEL increases than it does for non-farmers. With a strong family history of longevity as a proxy for a genetic predisposition, this research suggests that a gene–environment interaction occurs whereby the benefits of familial excess longevity are more available to those who have occupations with more autonomy and greater economic resources and/or opportunities for physical activity. PMID:24103415

  4. Subclinical Hypothyroidism Is Associated with Increased Risk for Cancer Mortality in Adult Taiwanese—A 10 Years Population-Based Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Tseng, Fen-Yu; Lin, Wen-Yuan; Li, Chia-Ing; Li, Tsai-Chung; Lin, Cheng-Chieh; Huang, Kuo-Chin

    2015-01-01

    Background The association between subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) and cancer mortality is seldom discussed. Methods A total of 115,746 participants without thyroid disease history, aged 20 and above, were recruited from four nationwide health screening centers in Taiwan from 1998 to 1999. SCH was defined as a serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) level of 5.0–19.96 mIU/L with normal total thyroxine concentrations. Euthyroidism was defined as a serum TSH level of 0.47–4.9 mIU/L. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of death from cancer for adults with SCH during a 10-year follow-up period. Results Among 115,746 adults, 1,841 had SCH (1.6%) and 113,905 (98.4%) had euthyroidism. There were 1,532 cancer deaths during the 1,034,082 person-years follow-up period. Adjusted for age, gender, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking, alcohol drinking, betel nut chewing, physical activity, income, and education level, the RRs (95% confidence interval) of cancer deaths among subjects with SCH versus euthyroid subjects were 1.51 (1.06 to 2.15). Cancer site analysis revealed a significant increased risk of bone, skin and breast cancer among SCH subjects (RR 2.79, (1.01, 7.70)). The risks of total cancer deaths were more prominent in the aged (RR 1.71, (1.02 to 2.87)), in females (RR 1.69 (1.08 to 2.65)), and in heavy smokers (RR 2.24, (1.19 to 4.21)). Conclusions Subjects with SCH had a significantly increased risk for cancer mortality among adult Taiwanese. This is the first report to demonstrate the association between SCH and cancer mortality. PMID:25830770

  5. RACE/ETHNICITY AND U.S. ADULT MORTALITY

    PubMed Central

    Hummer, Robert A.; Chinn, Juanita J.

    2011-01-01

    Although there have been significant decreases in U.S. mortality rates, racial/ethnic disparities persist. The goals of this study are to: (1) elucidate a conceptual framework for the study of racial/ethnic differences in U.S. adult mortality, (2) estimate current racial/ethnic differences in adult mortality, (3) examine empirically the extent to which measures of socioeconomic status and other risk factors impact the mortality differences across groups, and (4) utilize findings to inform the policy community with regard to eliminating racial/ethnic disparities in mortality. Relative Black-White differences are modestly narrower when compared to a decade or so ago, but remain very wide. The majority of the Black-White adult mortality gap can be accounted for by measures of socioeconomic resources that reflect the historical and continuing significance of racial socioeconomic stratification. Further, when controlling for socioeconomic resources, MexicanAmericans and Mexican immigrants exhibit significantly lower mortality risk than non-Hispanic Whites. Without aggressive efforts to create equality in socioeconomic and social resources, Black-White disparities in mortality will remain wide, and mortality among the Mexican-origin population will remain higher than what would be the case if that population achieved socioeconomic equality with Whites. PMID:21687782

  6. Infant Mortality Risk and Paternity Certainty Are Associated with Postnatal Maternal Behavior toward Adult Male Mountain Gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei).

    PubMed

    Rosenbaum, Stacy; Hirwa, Jean Paul; Silk, Joan B; Vigilant, Linda; Stoinski, Tara S

    2016-01-01

    Sexually selected infanticide is an important source of infant mortality in many mammalian species. In species with long-term male-female associations, females may benefit from male protection against infanticidal outsiders. We tested whether mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei) mothers in single and multi-male groups monitored by the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund's Karisoke Research Center actively facilitated interactions between their infants and a potentially protective male. We also evaluated the criteria mothers in multi-male groups used to choose a preferred male social partner. In single male groups, where infanticide risk and paternity certainty are high, females with infants <1 year old spent more time near and affiliated more with males than females without young infants. In multi-male groups, where infanticide rates and paternity certainty are lower, mothers with new infants exhibited few behavioral changes toward males. The sole notable change was that females with young infants proportionally increased their time near males they previously spent little time near when compared to males they had previously preferred, perhaps to encourage paternity uncertainty and deter aggression. Rank was a much better predictor of females' social partner choice than paternity. Older infants (2-3 years) in multi-male groups mirrored their mothers' preferences for individual male social partners; 89% spent the most time in close proximity to the male their mother had spent the most time near when they were <1 year old. Observed discrepancies between female behavior in single and multi-male groups likely reflect different levels of postpartum intersexual conflict; in groups where paternity certainty and infanticide risk are both high, male-female interests align and females behave accordingly. This highlights the importance of considering individual and group-level variation when evaluating intersexual conflict across the reproductive cycle. PMID:26863300

  7. Infant Mortality Risk and Paternity Certainty Are Associated with Postnatal Maternal Behavior toward Adult Male Mountain Gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei)

    PubMed Central

    Rosenbaum, Stacy; Hirwa, Jean Paul; Silk, Joan B.; Vigilant, Linda; Stoinski, Tara S.

    2016-01-01

    Sexually selected infanticide is an important source of infant mortality in many mammalian species. In species with long-term male-female associations, females may benefit from male protection against infanticidal outsiders. We tested whether mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei) mothers in single and multi-male groups monitored by the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund’s Karisoke Research Center actively facilitated interactions between their infants and a potentially protective male. We also evaluated the criteria mothers in multi-male groups used to choose a preferred male social partner. In single male groups, where infanticide risk and paternity certainty are high, females with infants <1 year old spent more time near and affiliated more with males than females without young infants. In multi-male groups, where infanticide rates and paternity certainty are lower, mothers with new infants exhibited few behavioral changes toward males. The sole notable change was that females with young infants proportionally increased their time near males they previously spent little time near when compared to males they had previously preferred, perhaps to encourage paternity uncertainty and deter aggression. Rank was a much better predictor of females’ social partner choice than paternity. Older infants (2–3 years) in multi-male groups mirrored their mothers’ preferences for individual male social partners; 89% spent the most time in close proximity to the male their mother had spent the most time near when they were <1 year old. Observed discrepancies between female behavior in single and multi-male groups likely reflect different levels of postpartum intersexual conflict; in groups where paternity certainty and infanticide risk are both high, male-female interests align and females behave accordingly. This highlights the importance of considering individual and group-level variation when evaluating intersexual conflict across the reproductive cycle. PMID:26863300

  8. Recessions, Job Loss, and Mortality Among Older US Adults

    PubMed Central

    Beckfield, Jason

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. We analyzed how recessions and job loss jointly shape mortality risks among older US adults. Methods. We used data for 50 states from the Health and Retirement Study and selected individuals who were employed at ages 45 to 66 years during 1992 to 2011. We assessed whether job loss affects mortality risks, whether recessions moderate the effect of job loss on mortality, and whether individuals who do and do not experience job loss are differentially affected by recessions. Results. Compared with individuals not experiencing job loss, mortality risks among individuals losing their job in a recession were strongly elevated (hazard ratio = 1.6; 95% confidence interval = 1.1, 2.3). Job loss during normal times or booms is not associated with mortality. For employed workers, we found a reduction in mortality risks if local labor market conditions were depressed, but this result was not consistent across different model specifications. Conclusions. Recessions increase mortality risks among older US adults who experience job loss. Health professionals and policymakers should target resources to this group during recessions. Future research should clarify which health conditions are affected by job loss during recessions and whether access to health care following job loss moderates this relation. PMID:25211731

  9. Prediabetes is not an independent risk factor for incident heart failure, other cardiovascular events or mortality in older adults: Findings from a population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Deedwania, Prakash; Patel, Kanan; Fonarow, Gregg C.; Desai, Ravi V.; Zhang, Yan; Feller, Margaret A.; Ovalle, Fernando; Love, Thomas E.; Aban, Inmaculada B.; Mujib, Marjan; Ahmed, Mustafa I.; Anker, Stefan D.; Ahmed, Ali

    2013-01-01

    Background Whether prediabetes is an independent risk factor for incident heart failure (HF) in non-diabetic older adults remains unclear. Methods Of the 4602 Cardiovascular Health Study participants, age ≥ 65 years, without baseline HF and diabetes, 2157 had prediabetes, defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) 100–125 mg/dL. Propensity scores for prediabetes, estimated for each of the 4602 participants, were used to assemble a cohort of 1421 pairs of individuals with and without prediabetes, balanced on 44 baseline characteristics. Results Participants had a mean age of 73 years, 57% were women, and 13% African American. Incident HF occurred in 18% and 20% of matched participants with and without prediabetes, respectively (hazard ratio {HR} associated with prediabetes, 0.90; 95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.76–1.07; p = 0.239). Unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for incident HF associated with prediabetes among 4602 pre-match participants were 1.22 (95% CI, 1.07–1.40; p = 0.003) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.85–1.14; p = 0.826), respectively. Among matched individuals, prediabetes had no independent association with incident acute myocardial infarction (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.81–1.28; p = 0.875), angina pectoris (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.77–1.12; p = 0.451), stroke (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.70–1.06; p = 0.151) or all-cause mortality (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.88–1.11; p = 0.840). Conclusions We found no evidence that prediabetes is an independent risk factor for incident HF, other cardiovascular events or mortality in community-dwelling older adults. These findings question the wisdom of routine screening for prediabetes in older adults and targeted interventions to prevent adverse outcomes in older adults with prediabetes. PMID:23731526

  10. The Association of Serum Leptin with Mortality in Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Tamara B.; Hsueh, Wen-Chi; Hue, Trisha; Leak, Tennille S.; Li, Rongling; Mehta, Mira; Vaisse, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Objective Elevated levels of serum leptin are associated with increased adiposity and production of pro-inflammatory cytokines. Both cytokines and body adiposity have been shown to predict cardiovascular events and mortality. The primary objective of the present study is to explore the associations between serum leptin and all-cause mortality and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) over a span of 10 years, controlling for body adiposity and proinflammatory cytokines. Methods The Health, Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) study is a prospective cohort of 3,075 older adults aged 70 to 79 years. This analysis includes 2,919 men and women with complete serum leptin and vital status data. Data on all-cause mortality and incident cardiovascular events (including Coronary Heart Disease and Congestive Heart Failure) were collected over 10 years of follow-up (mean 8.4 years). Results Women with leptin in quartile 2 and 3 were at lower risk of all-cause mortality, and those with leptin in quartile 2 were at lower risk of mortality from CVD as compared to women with lowest leptin values when adjusted for age, race, site, years of education, alcohol use, smoking, and physical activity. When these associations were additionally adjusted for body fat, C-reactive protein and pro-inflammatory cytokines, women with leptin values in quartile 3 were at lower risk of all-cause mortality and women with leptin in quartile 2 and 3 were at lower risk of mortality from CVD than women with lowest leptin values. These associations were not significant among men after adjusting for body fat and cytokines. Conclusions The present study suggests that moderately elevated concentrations of serum leptin are independently associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality and CVD-related mortality among older women. Among men, serum leptin is not associated with reduced risk of all-cause and CVD mortality after controlling for body fat and cytokines. PMID:26473487

  11. Network Type and Mortality Risk in Later Life

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Litwin, Howard; Shiovitz-Ezra, Sharon

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the association of baseline network type and 7-year mortality risk in later life. Design and Methods: We executed secondary analysis of all-cause mortality in Israel using data from a 1997 national survey of adults aged 60 and older (N = 5,055) that was linked to records from the National Death…

  12. Is birth order associated with adult mortality?

    PubMed

    O'Leary, S R; Wingard, D L; Edelstein, S L; Criqui, M H; Tucker, J S; Friedman, H S

    1996-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine whether birth order is associated with total or cause-specific adult mortality and whether the association differed by sex, was confounded by age, number of siblings, or socioeconomic status, or was mediated by personality, education, or health behaviors. Teachers throughout California identified intellectually gifted children as part of a prospective study begun in the 1920s by Lewis Terman. Information on birth order was available on 1162 subjects (85% of cohort) who have since been followed for over 70 years. Cox proportional hazards models indicated that birth order was not associated with adult all-cause, cardiovascular, or cancer mortality. Among women, middle children were more likely than oldest children to die from causes of death other than cardiovascular disease or cancer, although the numbers in this category were small. This study did not provide evidence that birth order is associated with adult mortality in this highly intelligent, middle-class cohort. PMID:8680622

  13. Multi-model inference of adult and childhood leukaemia excess relative risks based on the Japanese A-bomb survivors mortality data (1950-2000).

    PubMed

    Walsh, Linda; Kaiser, Jan Christian

    2011-03-01

    Some relatively new issues that augment the usual practice of ignoring model uncertainty, when making inference about parameters of a specific model, are brought to the attention of the radiation protection community here. Nine recently published leukaemia risk models, developed with the Japanese A-bomb epidemiological mortality data, have been included in a model-averaging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model or statistical test. The models have been centred here at various adult and young ages at exposure, for some short times since exposure, in order to obtain specially computed childhood Excess Relative Risks (ERR) with uncertainties that account for correlations in the fitted parameters associated with the ERR dose-response. The model-averaged ERR at 1 Sv was not found to be statistically significant for attained ages of 7 and 12 years but was statistically significant for attained ages of 17, 22 and 55 years. Consequently, such risks when applied to other situations, such as children in the vicinity of nuclear installations or in estimates of the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence attributable to background radiation (i.e. low doses for young ages and short times since exposure), are only of very limited value, with uncertainty ranges that include zero risk. For example, assuming a total radiation dose to a 5-year-old child of 10 mSv and applying the model-averaged risk at 10 mSv for a 7-year-old exposed at 2 years of age would result in an ERR=0.33, 95% CI: -0.51 to 1.22. One model (United Nations scientific committee on the effects of atomic radiation report. Volume 1. Annex A: epidemiological studies of radiation and cancer, United Nations, New York, 2006) weighted model-averaged risks of leukaemia most strongly by half of the total unity weighting and is recommended for application in future leukaemia risk assessments that continue to ignore model uncertainty. However, on the basis of the analysis

  14. Independent analysis of the radiation risk for leukaemia in children and adults with mortality data (1950-2003) of Japanese A-bomb survivors.

    PubMed

    Kaiser, Jan Christian; Walsh, Linda

    2013-03-01

    A recent analysis of leukaemia mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors has applied descriptive models, collected together from previous studies, to derive a joint excess relative risk estimate (ERR) by multi-model inference (MMI) (Walsh and Kaiser in Radiat Environ Biophys 50:21-35, 2011). The models use a linear-quadratic dose response with differing dose effect modifiers. In the present study, a set of more than 40 models has been submitted to a rigorous statistical selection procedure which fosters the parsimonious deployment of model parameters based on pairwise likelihood ratio tests. Nested models were consequently excluded from risk assessment. The set comprises models of the excess absolute risk (EAR) and two types of non-standard ERR models with sigmoidal responses or two line spline functions with a changing slope at a break point. Due to clearly higher values of the Akaike Information Criterion, none of the EAR models has been selected, but two non-standard ERR models qualified for MMI. The preferred ERR model applies a purely quadratic dose response which is slightly damped by an exponential factor at high doses and modified by a power function for attained age. Compared to the previous analysis, the present study reports similar point estimates and confidence intervals (CI) of the ERR from MMI for doses between 0.5 and 2.5 Sv. However, at lower doses, the point estimates are markedly reduced by factors between two and five, although the reduction was not statistically significant. The 2.5 % percentiles of the ERR from the preferred quadratic-exponential model did not fall below zero risk in exposure scenarios for children, adolescents and adults at very low doses down to 10 mSv. Yet, MMI produced risk estimates with a positive 2.5 % percentile only above doses of some 300 mSv. Compared to CI from a single model of choice, CI from MMI are broadened in cohort strata with low statistical power by a combination of risk extrapolations from several

  15. Childhood Sleep Duration and Lifelong Mortality Risk

    PubMed Central

    Duggan, Katherine A.; Reynolds, Chandra A.; Kern, Margaret L.; Friedman, Howard S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Sleep duration is known to significantly affect health in adults and children, but little is understood about long-term associations. This prospective cohort study is the first to examine whether childhood sleep duration is associated with lifelong mortality risk. Methods Data from childhood were refined and mortality data collected for 1,145 participants from the Terman Life Cycle Study. Participants were born between 1904 and 1915, lived to at least 1940, and had complete age, bedtime, and waketime data at initial data collection (1917–1926). Homogeneity of the cohort sample (intelligent, mostly white) limits generality but provides natural control of common confounds. Through 2009, 1,039 participants had confirmed deaths. Sleep duration was calculated as the difference between each child’s bed and wake times. Age-adjusted sleep (deviation from that predicted by age) was computed. Cox proportional hazards survival models evaluated childhood sleep duration as a predictor of mortality separately by sex, controlling for baseline age. Results For males, a quadratic relation emerged: male children who under-slept or over-slept compared to peers were at increased risk of lifelong all-cause mortality (HR = 1.15, CI = 1.05 – 1.27). Effect sizes were smaller and non-significant in females (HR = 1.02, CI = 0.91 – 1.14). Conclusions Male children with shorter or longer sleep durations than expected for their age were at increased risk of death at any given age in adulthood. The findings suggest that sleep may be a core biobehavioral trait, with implications for new models of sleep and health throughout the entire lifespan. PMID:24588628

  16. Identifying and Targeting Mortality Disparities: A Framework for Sub-Saharan Africa Using Adult Mortality Data from South Africa

    PubMed Central

    Sartorius, Benn; Sartorius, Kurt

    2013-01-01

    Background Health inequities in developing countries are difficult to eradicate because of limited resources. The neglect of adult mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a particular concern. Advances in data availability, software and analytic methods have created opportunities to address this challenge and tailor interventions to small areas. This study demonstrates how a generic framework can be applied to guide policy interventions to reduce adult mortality in high risk areas. The framework, therefore, incorporates the spatial clustering of adult mortality, estimates the impact of a range of determinants and quantifies the impact of their removal to ensure optimal returns on scarce resources. Methods Data from a national cross-sectional survey in 2007 were used to illustrate the use of the generic framework for SSA and elsewhere. Adult mortality proportions were analyzed at four administrative levels and spatial analyses were used to identify areas with significant excess mortality. An ecological approach was then used to assess the relationship between mortality “hotspots” and various determinants. Population attributable fractions were calculated to quantify the reduction in mortality as a result of targeted removal of high-impact determinants. Results Overall adult mortality rate was 145 per 10,000. Spatial disaggregation identified a highly non-random pattern and 67 significant high risk local municipalities were identified. The most prominent determinants of adult mortality included HIV antenatal sero-prevalence, low SES and lack of formal marital union status. The removal of the most attributable factors, based on local area prevalence, suggest that overall adult mortality could be potentially reduced by ∼90 deaths per 10,000. Conclusions The innovative use of secondary data and advanced epidemiological techniques can be combined in a generic framework to identify and map mortality to the lowest administration level. The identification of high

  17. Body mass index versus waist circumference as predictors of mortality in Canadian adults

    PubMed Central

    Staiano, AE; Reeder, BA; Elliott, S; Joffres, MR; Pahwa, P; Kirkland, SA; Paradis, G; Katzmarzyk, PT

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND Elevated body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) are associated with increased mortality risk, but it is unclear which anthropometric measurement most highly relates to mortality. We examined single and combined associations between BMI, WC, waist–hip ratio (WHR) and all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality. METHODS We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate relative risks of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 8061 adults (aged 18–74 years) in the Canadian Heart Health Follow-Up Study (1986–2004). Models controlled for age, sex, exam year, smoking, alcohol use and education. RESULTS There were 887 deaths over a mean 13 (SD 3.1) years follow-up. Increased risk of death from all-causes, CVD and cancer were associated with elevated BMI, WC and WHR (P < 0.05). Risk of death was consistently higher from elevated WC versus BMI or WHR. Ascending tertiles of each anthropometric measure predicted increased CVD mortality risk. In contrast, all-cause mortality risk was only predicted by ascending WC and WHR tertiles and cancer mortality risk by ascending WC tertiles. Higher risk of all-cause death was associated with WC in overweight and obese adults and with WHR in obese adults. Compared with non-obese adults with a low WC, adults with high WC had higher all-cause mortality risk regardless of BMI status. CONCULSION BMI and WC predicted higher all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and WC predicted the highest risk for death overall and among overweight and obese adults. Elevated WC has clinical significance in predicting mortality risk beyond BMI. PMID:22249224

  18. Mortality and morbidity risks and economic behavior.

    PubMed

    Stoler, Avraham; Meltzer, David

    2013-02-01

    There are theoretical reasons to expect that high risk of mortality or morbidity during young adulthood decreases investment in human capital. However, investigation of this hypothesis is complicated by a variety of empirical challenges, including difficulties in inferring causation due to omitted variables and reverse causation. For example, to compare two groups with substantially different mortality rates, one typically has to use samples from different countries or periods, making it difficult to control for other relevant variables. Reverse causation is important because human capital investment can affect mortality and morbidity. To counter these problems, we collected data on human capital investments, fertility decisions, and other economic choices of people at risk for Huntington's disease. Huntington's disease is a fatal genetic disorder that introduces a large and exogenous risk of early mortality and morbidity. We find a strong negative relation between mortality and morbidity risks and human capital investment. PMID:22308067

  19. ANALYSIS OF LAMB MORTALITY USING COMPETING RISKS

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A competing risks model was used to describe lamb mortality up to four weeks of age in a composite sheep flock with 8,642 lamb records. Discrete survival methods were applied using sire and animal models. The results indicated that substantial variation exists in the risk of lambs dying from diffe...

  20. Musculoskeletal Fitness and Risk of Mortality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzmarzyk, Peter T.; Craig, Cora L.

    2002-01-01

    Quantified the relationship between musculoskeletal fitness and all-cause mortality in Canada, using measures of musculoskeletal fitness (situps, pushups, grip strength, and sit- and-reach trunk flexibility) from adult male and female participants in the Canadian Fitness Survey. Results indicated that some components of musculoskeletal fitness,…

  1. NONDRINKER MORTALITY RISK IN THE UNITED STATES

    PubMed Central

    Rogers, Richard G.; Krueger, Patrick M.; Miech, Richard; Lawrence, Elizabeth M.; Kemp, Robert

    2014-01-01

    The literature has shown that people who do not drink alcohol are at greater risk for death than light to moderate drinkers, yet the reasons for this remain largely unexplained. We examine whether variation in people's reasons for nondrinking explains the increased mortality. Our data come from the 1988-2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality File (N= 41,076 individuals age 21 and above, of whom 10,421 died over the follow-up period). The results indicate that nondrinkers include several different groups that have unique mortality risks. Among abstainers and light drinkers the risk of mortality is the same as light drinkers for a subgroup who report that they do not drink because of their family upbringing, and moral/religious reasons. In contrast, the risk of mortality is higher than light drinkers for former drinkers who cite health problems or who report problematic drinking behaviors. Our findings address a notable gap in the literature and may inform social policies to reduce or prevent alcohol abuse, increase health, and lengthen life. PMID:25045194

  2. Educational Differences in U.S. Adult Mortality: A Cohort Perspective*

    PubMed Central

    Masters, Ryan K.; Hummer, Robert A.; Powers, Daniel A.

    2014-01-01

    We use hierarchical cross-classified random-effects models to simultaneously measure age, period, and cohort patterns of mortality risk between 1986 and 2006 for non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black men and women with less than a high school education, a high school education, and more than a high school education. We examine all-cause mortality risk and mortality risk from heart disease, lung cancer, and unpreventable cancers. Findings reveal that temporal reductions in black and white men’s and women’s mortality rates were driven entirely by cohort changes in mortality. Findings also demonstrate that disparate cohort effects between education groups widened the education gap in all-cause mortality risk and mortality risk from heart disease and lung cancer across this time period. Educational disparities in mortality risk from unpreventable cancers, however, did not change. This research uncovers widening educational differences in adult mortality and demonstrates that a cohort perspective provides valuable insights for understanding recent temporal changes in U.S. mortality risk. PMID:25346542

  3. MARKET EVIDENCE OF MISPERCEIVED MORTALITY RISK *

    PubMed Central

    Bhattacharya, Jay; Goldman, Dana; Sood, Neeraj

    2013-01-01

    We construct and implement a test of rational consumer behavior in a high-stakes financial market. In particular, we test whether consumers make systematic mistakes in perceiving their mortality risks. We implement this test using data from secondary life insurance markets where consumers with a life-threatening illness sell their life insurance policies to firms in return for an up-front payment. We compare predictions from two models: one with consumers who correctly perceive their mortality risk, and one with consumers who are misguided about their life expectancy, and find that our data are most consistent with the predictions made by the second model. PMID:23606779

  4. Weight Discrimination and Risk of Mortality.

    PubMed

    Sutin, Angelina R; Stephan, Yannick; Terracciano, Antonio

    2015-11-01

    Discrimination based on weight is a stressful social experience linked to declines in physical and mental health. We examined whether this harmful association extends to risk of mortality. Participants in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS; N = 13,692) and the Midlife in the United States Study (MIDUS; N = 5,079) reported on perceived discriminatory experiences and attributed those experiences to a number of personal characteristics, including weight. Weight discrimination was associated with an increase in mortality risk of nearly 60% in both HRS participants (hazard ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval = [1.34, 1.84]) and MIDUS participants (hazard ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval = [1.09, 2.31]). This increased risk was not accounted for by common physical and psychological risk factors. The association between mortality and weight discrimination was generally stronger than that between mortality and other attributions for discrimination. In addition to its association with poor health outcomes, weight discrimination may shorten life expectancy. PMID:26420442

  5. Added sugar intake and cardiovascular diseases mortality among US adults.

    PubMed

    Yang, Quanhe; Zhang, Zefeng; Gregg, Edward W; Flanders, W Dana; Merritt, Robert; Hu, Frank B

    2014-04-01

    IMPORTANCE Epidemiologic studies have suggested that higher intake of added sugar is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. Few prospective studies have examined the association of added sugar intake with CVD mortality. OBJECTIVE To examine time trends of added sugar consumption as percentage of daily calories in the United States and investigate the association of this consumption with CVD mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 1988-1994 [III], 1999-2004, and 2005-2010 [n = 31,147]) for the time trend analysis and NHANES III Linked Mortality cohort (1988-2006 [n = 11 733]), a prospective cohort of a nationally representative sample of US adults for the association study. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Cardiovascular disease mortality. RESULTS Among US adults, the adjusted mean percentage of daily calories from added sugar increased from 15.7% (95% CI, 15.0%-16.4%) in 1988-1994 to 16.8% (16.0%-17.7%; P = .02) in 1999-2004 and decreased to 14.9% (14.2%-15.5%; P < .001) in 2005-2010. Most adults consumed 10% or more of calories from added sugar (71.4%) and approximately 10% consumed 25% or more in 2005-2010. During a median follow-up period of 14.6 years, we documented 831 CVD deaths during 163,039 person-years. Age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of CVD mortality across quintiles of the percentage of daily calories consumed from added sugar were 1.00 (reference), 1.09 (95% CI, 1.05-1.13), 1.23 (1.12-1.34), 1.49 (1.24-1.78), and 2.43 (1.63-3.62; P < .001), respectively. After additional adjustment for sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical characteristics, HRs were 1.00 (reference), 1.07 (1.02-1.12), 1.18 (1.06-1.31), 1.38 (1.11-1.70), and 2.03 (1.26-3.27; P = .004), respectively. Adjusted HRs were 1.30 (95% CI, 1.09-1.55) and 2.75 (1.40-5.42; P = .004), respectively, comparing participants who consumed 10.0% to 24.9% or 25.0% or

  6. [Causes of adult mortality in developing and developed countries with low mortality rates].

    PubMed

    Vallin, J

    1995-06-01

    "In a certain number of developing countries, life expectancy levels now approach those of the developed world. But, though life expectancies at birth may be similar, the infant mortality rate in developing countries remains higher, but is compensated by a lower rate of mortality for adults. Is it to be expected that as infant mortality rates continue to decline, the developing countries will maintain their advantageous adult mortality rates and that life expectancy will forge ahead of the level achieved in developed countries?... To answer this question, recent trends in adult cause-specific mortality rates in four developing countries (Chile, Hong Kong, Mexico, and Costa Rica) were compared with those in three industrialized countries (France, Germany and Japan). The results were inconclusive. Whilst life expectancies in some of these countries may be expected to forge ahead (Chile, Hong Kong), in others the margin between their life expectancies and those of developed countries have already narrowed." (SUMMARY IN ENG) PMID:12347045

  7. A Comparison of Methods for Assessing Mortality Risk

    PubMed Central

    Levine, ME; Crimmins, EM

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Concepts such as Allostatic Load, Framingham Risk Score, and Biological Age were developed to combine information from multiple measures into a single latent variable that can be used to quantify a person's biological state. Given these varying approaches, the goal of this paper is to compare how well these three measures predict subsequent all-cause and disease-specific mortality within a large nationally representative U.S. sample. Methods Our study population consisted of 9,942 adults, ages 30 and above from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and Cox Proportional Hazard models for the whole sample and for stratified age groups were used to compare how well Allostatic Load, Framingham Risk Score, and Biological Age predict ten-year all-cause and disease-specific mortality in the sample, for whom there were 1,076 deaths over 96,420 person years of exposure. Results Overall, Biological Age predicted 10-year mortality more accurately than other measures for the full age range, as well as for participants ages 50-69 and 70 +. Additionally, out of the three measures, Biological Age had the strongest association with all-cause and cancer mortality, while the Framingham Risk Score had the strongest association with CVD mortality. Conclusions Methods for quantifying biological risk provide important approaches to improving our understanding of the causes and consequences of changes in physiological function and dysregulation. Biological Age offers an alternative and, in some cases more accurate summary approach to the traditionally used methods, such as Allostatic Load and Framingham Risk Score. PMID:25088793

  8. Socioeconomic Determinants of Adult Mortality in Namibia Using an Event History Analysis.

    PubMed

    Kandjimbi, Alina; Nickanor, Ndeyapo; Kazembe, Lawrence N

    2014-01-01

    Adult mortality remains a neglected public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, with most policy instruments concentrated on child and maternal health. In developed countries, adult mortality is negatively associated with socioeconomic factors. A similar pattern is expected in developing countries, but has not been extensively demonstrated, because of dearth of data. Understanding the hazard and factors associated with adult mortality is crucial for informing policies and for implementation of interventions aimed at improving adult survival. This paper applied a geo-additive survival model to elucidate effects of socioeconomic factors on adult mortality in Namibia, controlling for spatial frailties. Results show a clear disadvantage for adults in rural areas, for those not married and from poor households or in female-headed households. The hazard of adult mortality was highly variable with a 1.5-fold difference between areas, with highest hazard recorded in north eastern, central west and southern west parts of the country. The analysis emphasizes that, for Namibia to achieve its national development goals, targeted interventions should be aimed at poor-resourced adults, particularly in high-risk areas. PMID:26208512

  9. Obesity, metabolic health, and mortality in adults: a nationwide population-based study in Korea.

    PubMed

    Yang, Hae Kyung; Han, Kyungdo; Kwon, Hyuk-Sang; Park, Yong-Moon; Cho, Jae-Hyoung; Yoon, Kun-Ho; Kang, Moo-Il; Cha, Bong-Yun; Lee, Seung-Hwan

    2016-01-01

    BMI, metabolic health status, and their interactions should be considered for estimating mortality risk; however, the data are controversial and unknown in Asians. We aimed to investigate this issue in Korean population. Total 323175 adults were followed-up for 96 (60-120) (median [5-95%]) months in a nationwide population-based cohort study. Participants were classified as "obese" (O) or "non-obese" (NO) using a BMI cut-off of 25 kg/m(2). People who developed ≥1 metabolic disease component (hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia) in the index year were considered "metabolically unhealthy" (MU), while those with none were considered "metabolically healthy" (MH). The MUNO group had a significantly higher risk of all-cause (hazard ratio, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.21-1.35]) and cardiovascular (1.88 [1.63-2.16]) mortality, whereas the MHO group had a lower mortality risk (all-cause: 0.81 [0.74-0.88]), cardiovascular: 0.73 [0.57-0.95]), compared to the MHNO group. A similar pattern was noted for cancer and other-cause mortality. Metabolically unhealthy status was associated with higher risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality regardless of BMI levels, and there was a dose-response relationship between the number of incident metabolic diseases and mortality risk. In conclusion, poor metabolic health status contributed more to mortality than high BMI did, in Korean adults. PMID:27445194

  10. Variations of Radon Risk with Changing Mortality Rates

    SciTech Connect

    Chen Jing

    2008-08-07

    This study examines the variation of radon risks with changing mortality rates. The Canadian age-specific mortality rates averaged over five year periods from 1986 to 1990 and from 1996 to 2000 were used in the risk calculations. Because of the synergistic interaction between smoking and radon, the risk of radon induced lung cancer for Canadian men decreased with the declining lung cancer mortality rates while for Canadian women the radon risks increased with the rising lung cancer mortality rates.

  11. Variations of Radon Risk with Changing Mortality Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Jing

    2008-08-01

    This study examines the variation of radon risks with changing mortality rates. The Canadian age-specific mortality rates averaged over five year periods from 1986 to 1990 and from 1996 to 2000 were used in the risk calculations. Because of the synergistic interaction between smoking and radon, the risk of radon induced lung cancer for Canadian men decreased with the declining lung cancer mortality rates while for Canadian women the radon risks increased with the rising lung cancer mortality rates

  12. Asthma, airflow limitation, and mortality risk in the general population

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Shuang; Vasquez, Monica M; Halonen, Marilyn; Martinez, Fernando D; Guerra, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease co-exist in a significant proportion of patients. Whether asthma increases mortality risk among subjects with airflow limitation remains controversial. We used data from 2121 adult participants in the population-based TESAOD cohort. At enrollment (1972–73), participants completed questionnaires and lung function tests. Participants were categorized into four groups based on the combination of airflow limitation (AL: FEV1/FVC<70%) and physician-confirmed asthma at baseline. Vital status as of January 2011 was assessed through the National Death Index. Cox proportional hazards models were used to test differences in mortality risk across the four AL/Asthma groups. In multivariate Cox models, the AL+/Asthma+ group had a 114% increased mortality risk over the follow-up as compared with the AL-/Asthma- group (adjHR: 2.14, 1.64–2.79). The corresponding Hazard Ratios were 1.09 (0.89–1.34) and 1.34 (1.14–1.57) for the AL-/Asthma+ and AL+/Asthma- groups, respectively. Among subjects with AL, asthma was associated with increased mortality risk (1.58, 1.17–2.12). However, this increased risk was substantially reduced and no longer significant after further adjustment for baseline FEV1 levels. Similar results were obtained when AL was defined as FEV1/FVCrisk of dying, which was mainly related to their baseline lung function deficits. PMID:25323227

  13. Rosa damascena decreased mortality in adult Drosophila.

    PubMed

    Jafari, Mahtab; Zarban, Asghar; Pham, Steven; Wang, Thomas

    2008-03-01

    The effects of a rose-flower extract, Rosa damascena, on the mortality rate of Drosophila melanogaster was evaluated in this study. R. damascena is a potent antioxidant that has many therapeutic uses in addition to its perfuming effects. Supplementing Drosophila with this rose extract resulted in a statistically significant decrease in mortality rate in male and female flies. Moreover, the observed anti-aging effects were not associated with common confounds of anti-aging properties, such as a decrease in fecundity or metabolic rate. PMID:18361732

  14. Analysis of exogenous components of mortality risks.

    PubMed

    Blinkin, V L

    1998-04-01

    A new technique for deriving exogenous components of mortality risks from national vital statistics has been developed. Each observed death rate Dij (where i corresponds to calendar time (year or interval of years) and j denotes the number of corresponding age group) was represented as Dij = Aj + BiCj, and unknown quantities Aj, Bi, and Cj were estimated by a special procedure using the least-squares principle. The coefficients of variation do not exceed 10%. It is shown that the term Aj can be interpreted as the endogenous and the second term BiCj as the exogenous components of the death rate. The aggregate of endogenous components Aj can be described by a regression function, corresponding to the Gompertz-Makeham law, A(tau) = gamma + beta x e alpha tau, where gamma, beta, and alpha are constants, tau is age, A(tau) [symbol: see text] tau = tau j identical to A(tau j) identical to Aj and tau j is the value of age tau in jth age group. The coefficients of variation for such a representation does not exceed 4%. An analysis of exogenous risk levels in the Moscow and Russian populations during 1980-1995 shows that since 1992 all components of exogenous risk in the Moscow population had been increasing up to 1994. The greatest contribution to the total level of exogenous risk was lethal diseases, and their death rate was 387 deaths per 100,000 persons in 1994, i.e., 61.9% of all deaths. The dynamics of exogenous mortality risk change during 1990-1994 in the Moscow population and in the Russian population without Moscow had been identical: the risk had been increasing and its value in the Russian population had been higher than that in the Moscow population. PMID:9637078

  15. Age Differential Effects of Severity of Visual Impairment on Mortality among Older Adults in China

    PubMed Central

    Gu, Danan; Zhou, Junshan; Yong, Vanessa; Sautter, Jessica; Saito, Yasuhiko

    2015-01-01

    We use a population-based longitudinal survey in China from 2002 to 2005 to examine age differentials in the association between severity of visual impairment and mortality risk in older adults. Controlling for numerous factors and baseline health, a substantial age difference is found. Young-old women and men aged 65–79 with severe visual impairments have 161% (hazard ratio=2.61) and 52% (hazard ratio =1.52) higher risk of death respectively as compared to their unimpaired counterparts. Mild impairment does not increase mortality risk among young-old adults, while both mild and severe impairment increase mortality risk by 33% and 32% for women and 24% and 34% for men among the oldest-old as a whole when all factors are controlled for. We conclude that visual impairment is an independent predictor of mortality and severe visual impairment likely plays a stronger role in determining mortality risk among young-old adults than among the oldest-old. PMID:25474802

  16. Individual Joblessness, Contextual Unemployment, and Mortality Risk

    PubMed Central

    Tapia Granados, José A.; House, James S.; Ionides, Edward L.; Burgard, Sarah; Schoeni, Robert S.

    2014-01-01

    Longitudinal studies at the level of individuals find that employees who lose their jobs are at increased risk of death. However, analyses of aggregate data find that as unemployment rates increase during recessions, population mortality actually declines. We addressed this paradox by using data from the US Department of Labor and annual survey data (1979–1997) from a nationally representative longitudinal study of individuals—the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Using proportional hazards (Cox) regression, we analyzed how the hazard of death depended on 1) individual joblessness and 2) state unemployment rates, as indicators of contextual economic conditions. We found that 1) compared with the employed, for the unemployed the hazard of death was increased by an amount equivalent to 10 extra years of age, and 2) each percentage-point increase in the state unemployment rate reduced the mortality hazard in all individuals by an amount equivalent to a reduction of 1 year of age. Our results provide evidence that 1) joblessness strongly and significantly raises the risk of death among those suffering it, and 2) periods of higher unemployment rates, that is, recessions, are associated with a moderate but significant reduction in the risk of death among the entire population. PMID:24993734

  17. Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

    PubMed

    Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

    2014-09-01

    Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health. PMID:24990431

  18. Bone Mineral Density and Parathyroid Hormone as Independent Risk Factors for Mortality in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Brazil. The São Paulo Ageing & Health (SPAH) Study.

    PubMed

    Domiciano, Diogo S; Machado, Luana G; Lopes, Jaqueline B; Figueiredo, Camille P; Caparbo, Valéria F; Oliveira, Ricardo M; Scazufca, Márcia; McClung, Michael R; Pereira, Rosa Mr

    2016-06-01

    risk of cardiovascular death (HR 3.09; 95% CI, 1.36 to 6.99; p = 0.007) compared with the subjects in the lowest quartile (<26 pg/mL). Low BMD and higher PTH were significantly associated with mortality in community-dwelling older adults. These findings support the notion that careful screening of these bone parameters might lead to better management of older patients and improve outcomes in this population. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. PMID:26814375

  19. Assessing adult mortality in HIV-1-afflicted Zimbabwe (1998 -2003).

    PubMed Central

    Lopman, Ben A.; Barnabas, Ruanne; Hallett, Timothy B.; Nyamukapa, Constance; Mundandi, Costa; Mushati, Phyllis; Garnett, Geoff P.; Gregson, Simon

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare alternative methods to vital registration systems for estimating adult mortality, and describe patterns of mortality in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, which has been severely affected by HIV. METHODS: We compared estimates of adult mortality from (1) a single question on household mortality, (2) repeated household censuses, and (3) an adult cohort study with linked HIV testing from Manicaland, with a mathematical model fitted to local age-specific HIV prevalence (1998 -2000). FINDINGS: The crude death rate from the single question (29 per 1000 person-years) was roughly consistent with that from the mathematical model (22 -25 per 1000 person-years), but much higher than that from the household censuses (12 per 1000 person-years). Adult mortality in the household censuses (males 0.65; females 0.51) was lower than in the cohort study (males 0.77; females 0.57), while mathematical models gave a much higher estimate, especially for females (males 0.80 -0.83; females 0.75 -0.80). The population attributable fraction of adult deaths due to HIV was 0.61 for men and 0.70 for women, with life expectancy estimated to be 34.3 years for males and 38.2 years for females. CONCLUSION: Each method for estimating adult mortality had limitations in terms of loss to follow-up (cohort study), under-ascertainment (household censuses), transparency of underlying processes (single question), and sensitivity to parameterization (mathematical model). However, these analyses make clear the advantages of longitudinal cohort data, which provide more complete ascertainment than household censuses, highlight possible inaccuracies in model assumptions, and allow direct quantification of the impact of HIV. PMID:16583077

  20. [Adult mortality from chronic diseases in Chile, 1968-1990].

    PubMed

    Taucher, E; Albala, C; Icaza, G

    1994-12-01

    "The paper starts with a brief analysis of the sources and the quality of the data and the mortality indices [for trends in adult mortality from chronic diseases in Chile]....A comparison is made of mortality among the 13 regions of the country and an attempt is made to relate the observed differences to some environmental and life-style factors. Rural-urban and educational differences of mortality by cause of death are also analyzed. The paper ends by comparing mortality by chronic disease in Chile with that of other countries of the Latin American region, noting some difficulties [in] such a comparison and proposing hypotheses for future studies." (SUMMARY IN ENG) PMID:12290226

  1. Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status, Race, and Mortality in Young Adult Dialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Estrella, Michelle M.; Crews, Deidra C.; Appel, Lawrence J.; Anderson, Cheryl A.M.; Ephraim, Patti L.; Cook, Courtney; Boulware, L. Ebony

    2014-01-01

    Young blacks receiving dialysis have an increased risk of death compared with whites in the United States. Factors influencing this disparity among the young adult dialysis population have not been well explored. Our study examined the relation of neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) and racial differences in mortality in United States young adults receiving dialysis. We merged US Renal Data System patient-level data from 11,027 black and white patients ages 18–30 years old initiating dialysis between 2006 and 2009 with US Census data to obtain neighborhood poverty information for each patient. We defined low SES neighborhoods as those neighborhoods in US Census zip codes with ≥20% of residents living below the federal poverty level and quantified race differences in mortality risk by level of neighborhood SES. Among patients residing in low SES neighborhoods, blacks had greater mortality than whites after adjusting for baseline demographics, clinical characteristics, rurality, and access to care factors. This difference in mortality between blacks and whites was significantly attenuated in higher SES neighborhoods. In the United States, survival between young adult blacks and whites receiving dialysis differs by neighborhood SES. Additional studies are needed to identify modifiable factors contributing to the greater mortality among young adult black dialysis patients residing in low SES neighborhoods. PMID:24925723

  2. Associations between health-related quality of life and mortality in older adults.

    PubMed

    Brown, Derek S; Thompson, William W; Zack, Matthew M; Arnold, Sarah E; Barile, John P

    2015-01-01

    This study measures the use and relative importance of different measures of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) as predictors of mortality in a large sample of older US adults. We used Cox proportional hazards models to analyze the association between general self-reported health and three "healthy days" (HDs) measures of HRQOL and mortality at short-term (90-day) and long-term (2.5 years) follow-up. The data were from Cohorts 6 through 8 of the Medicare Health Outcomes Survey, a national sample of older adults who completed baseline surveys in 2003-2005. At the long term, reduced HRQOL in general health and all categories of the HDs were separately and significantly associated with greater mortality (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis of long-term mortality, at least one HD category remained significant for each measure, but the associations between mental health and mortality were inconsistent. For short-term mortality, the physical health measures had larger hazard ratios, but fewer categories were significant. Hazard ratios decreased over time for all measures of HRQOL except mental health. In conclusion, HRQOL measures were shown to be significant predictors of short- and long-term mortality, further supporting their value in health surveillance and as markers of risk for targeted prevention efforts. Although all four measures of HRQOL significantly predicted mortality, general self-rated health and age were more important predictors than the HDs. PMID:24189743

  3. Mortality Among Adults With Intellectual Disability in England: Comparisons With the General Population

    PubMed Central

    Hosking, Fay J.; Shah, Sunil M.; Harris, Tess; DeWilde, Stephen; Beighton, Carole; Cook, Derek G.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To describe mortality among adults with intellectual disability in England in comparison with the general population. Methods. We conducted a cohort study from 2009 to 2013 using data from 343 general practices. Adults with intellectual disability (n = 16 666; 656 deaths) were compared with age-, gender-, and practice-matched controls (n = 113 562; 1358 deaths). Results. Adults with intellectual disability had higher mortality rates than controls (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.3, 3.9). This risk remained high after adjustment for comorbidity, smoking, and deprivation (HR = 3.1; 95% CI = 2.7, 3.4); it was even higher among adults with intellectual disability and Down syndrome or epilepsy. A total of 37.0% of all deaths among adults with intellectual disability were classified as being amenable to health care intervention, compared with 22.5% in the general population (HR = 5.9; 95% CI = 5.1, 6.8). Conclusions. Mortality among adults with intellectual disability is markedly elevated in comparison with the general population, with more than a third of deaths potentially amenable to health care interventions. This mortality disparity suggests the need to improve access to, and quality of, health care among people with intellectual disability. PMID:27310347

  4. Obesity, metabolic health, and mortality in adults: a nationwide population-based study in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Hae Kyung; Han, Kyungdo; Kwon, Hyuk-Sang; Park, Yong-Moon; Cho, Jae-Hyoung; Yoon, Kun-Ho; Kang, Moo-Il; Cha, Bong-Yun; Lee, Seung-Hwan

    2016-01-01

    BMI, metabolic health status, and their interactions should be considered for estimating mortality risk; however, the data are controversial and unknown in Asians. We aimed to investigate this issue in Korean population. Total 323175 adults were followed-up for 96 (60–120) (median [5–95%]) months in a nationwide population-based cohort study. Participants were classified as “obese” (O) or “non-obese” (NO) using a BMI cut-off of 25 kg/m2. People who developed ≥1 metabolic disease component (hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia) in the index year were considered “metabolically unhealthy” (MU), while those with none were considered “metabolically healthy” (MH). The MUNO group had a significantly higher risk of all-cause (hazard ratio, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.21–1.35]) and cardiovascular (1.88 [1.63–2.16]) mortality, whereas the MHO group had a lower mortality risk (all-cause: 0.81 [0.74–0.88]), cardiovascular: 0.73 [0.57–0.95]), compared to the MHNO group. A similar pattern was noted for cancer and other-cause mortality. Metabolically unhealthy status was associated with higher risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality regardless of BMI levels, and there was a dose-response relationship between the number of incident metabolic diseases and mortality risk. In conclusion, poor metabolic health status contributed more to mortality than high BMI did, in Korean adults. PMID:27445194

  5. Childhood-Onset Disease Predicts Mortality in an Adult Cohort of Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

    PubMed Central

    Hersh, Aimee O.; Trupin, Laura; Yazdany, Jinoos; Panopalis, Peter; Julian, Laura; Katz, Patricia; Criswell, Lindsey A.; Yelin, Edward

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine childhood-onset disease as a predictor of mortality in a cohort of adult patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods Data were derived from the University of California Lupus Outcomes Study, a longitudinal cohort of 957 adult subjects with SLE that includes 98 subjects with childhood-onset SLE. Baseline and follow-up data were obtained via telephone interviews conducted between 2002-2007. The number of deaths during 5 years of follow-up was determined and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for the cohort, and across age groups, were calculated. Kaplan-Meier life table analysis was used to compare mortality rates between childhood (defined as SLE diagnosis <18 years) and adult-onset SLE. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine predictors of mortality. Results During the median follow-up period of 48 months, 72 deaths (7.5% of subjects) occurred, including 9 (12.5%) among those with childhood-onset SLE. The overall SMR was 2.5 (CI 2.0-3.2). In Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, after adjusting for age, childhood-onset subjects were at increased risk for mortality throughout the follow-up period (p<0.0001). In a multivariate model adjusting for age, disease duration and other covariates, childhood-onset SLE was independently associated with an increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3-7.3), as was low socioeconomic status measured by education (HR: 1.9; 95% CI 1.1-3.2) and end stage renal disease (HR: 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-4.0). Conclusion Childhood-onset SLE was a strong predictor of mortality in this cohort. Interventions are needed to prevent early mortality in this population. PMID:20235215

  6. Beverage Habits and Mortality in Chinese Adults12

    PubMed Central

    Odegaard, Andrew O; Koh, Woon-Puay; Yuan, Jian-Min; Pereira, Mark A

    2015-01-01

    Background: There is limited research examining beverage habits, one of the most habitual dietary behaviors, with mortality risk. Objective: This study examined the association between coffee, black and green tea, sugar-sweetened beverages (soft drinks and juice), and alcohol and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Methods: A prospective data analysis was conducted with the use of the Singapore Chinese Health Study, including 52,584 Chinese men and women (aged 45–74 y) free of diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer at baseline (1993–1998) and followed through 2011 with 10,029 deaths. Beverages were examined with all-cause and cause-specific (cancer, CVD, and respiratory disease) mortality risk with the use of Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: The associations between coffee, black tea, and alcohol intake and all-cause mortality were modified by smoking status. Among never-smokers there was an inverse dose-response association between higher amounts of coffee and black tea intake and all-cause, respiratory-related, and CVD mortality (black tea only). The fully adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality for coffee for <1/d, 1/d, and ≥2/d relative to no coffee intake were 0.89, 0.86, and 0.83, respectively (P-trend = 0.0003). For the same black tea categories the HRs were 0.95, 0.90, and 0.72, respectively (P-trend = 0.0005). Among ever-smokers there was no association between coffee or black tea and the outcomes. Relative to no alcohol, light to moderate intake was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.96) in never-smokers with a similar magnitude of association in ever-smokers. There was no association between heavy alcohol intake and all-cause mortality in never-smokers and a strong positive association in ever-smokers (HR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.40, 1.74). Green tea and sugar-sweetened beverages were not associated with all-cause or cause-specific mortality. Conclusions: Higher coffee and black tea intake was

  7. Twentieth century surge of excess adult male mortality

    PubMed Central

    Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram; Finch, Caleb E.; Crimmins, Eileen M.

    2015-01-01

    Using historical data from 1,763 birth cohorts from 1800 to 1935 in 13 developed countries, we show that what is now seen as normal—a large excess of female life expectancy in adulthood—is a demographic phenomenon that emerged among people born in the late 1800s. We show that excess adult male mortality is clearly rooted in specific age groups, 50–70, and that the sex asymmetry emerged in cohorts born after 1880 when male:female mortality ratios increased by as much as 50% from a baseline of about 1.1. Heart disease is the main condition associated with increased excess male mortality for those born after 1900. We further show that smoking-attributable deaths account for about 30% of excess male mortality at ages 50–70 for cohorts born in 1900–1935. However, after accounting for smoking, substantial excess male mortality at ages 50–70 remained, particularly from cardiovascular disease. The greater male vulnerability to cardiovascular conditions emerged with the reduction in infectious mortality and changes in health-related behaviors. PMID:26150507

  8. Social Cohesion and Mortality: A Survival Analysis of Older Adults in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Yorifuji, Takashi; Takao, Soshi; Doi, Hiroyuki; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2013-01-01

    Objectives. We examined the association between social cohesion and mortality in a sample of older adults in Japan. Methods. Data were derived from a cohort study of elderly individuals (65–84 years) in Shizuoka Prefecture; 14 001 participants were enrolled at baseline (1999) and followed up in 2002, 2006, and 2009. Among the 11 092 participants for whom we had complete data, 1427 had died during follow-up. We examined the association between social cohesion (assessed at both the community and individual levels) and subsequent mortality after control for baseline and time-varying covariates. We used clustered proportional hazard regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs). Results. After control for individual characteristics, individual perceptions of community cohesion were associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.73, 0.84) as well as mortality from cardiovascular disease (HR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.67, 0.84), pulmonary disease (HR = 0.66; 95% CI = 0.58, 0.75), and all other causes (HR = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.66, 0.89). However, no statistically significant relationship was found between community cohesion and mortality risk. Conclusions. Among the elderly in Japan, more positive individual perceptions of community cohesion are associated with reduced risks of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. PMID:24134379

  9. Estimated mortality of adult HIV-infected patients starting treatment with combination antiretroviral therapy

    PubMed Central

    Yiannoutsos, Constantin Theodore; Johnson, Leigh Francis; Boulle, Andrew; Musick, Beverly Sue; Gsponer, Thomas; Balestre, Eric; Law, Matthew; Shepherd, Bryan E; Egger, Matthias

    2012-01-01

    Objective To provide estimates of mortality among HIV-infected patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy. Methods We report on the death rates from 122 925 adult HIV-infected patients aged 15 years or older from East, Southern and West Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America. We use two methods to adjust for biases in mortality estimation resulting from loss from follow-up, based on double-sampling methods applied to patient outreach (Kenya) and linkage with vital registries (South Africa), and apply these to mortality estimates in the other three regions. Age, gender and CD4 count at the initiation of therapy were the factors considered as predictors of mortality at 6, 12, 24 and >24 months after the start of treatment. Results Patient mortality was high during the first 6 months after therapy for all patient subgroups and exceeded 40 per 100 patient years among patients who started treatment at low CD4 count. This trend was seen regardless of region, demographic or disease-related risk factor. Mortality was under-reported by up to or exceeding 100% when comparing estimates obtained from passive monitoring of patient vital status. Conclusions Despite advances in antiretroviral treatment coverage many patients start treatment at very low CD4 counts and experience significant mortality during the first 6 months after treatment initiation. Active patient tracing and linkage with vital registries are critical in adjusting estimates of mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income settings. PMID:23172344

  10. Which factors are associated with mortality in institutionalized older adults with dementia?

    PubMed

    Navarro-Gil, Patricia; González-Vélez, Abel E; Ayala, Alba; Martín-García, Salomé; Martínez-Martín, Pablo; Forjaz, Maria João

    2014-01-01

    Residential facilities are increasingly used as a resource for dependent older adults and a high percentage of patients with dementia die there. Information about the leading medical causes and exposures to risk factors of mortality in institutionalized older patients with dementia could guide the development of clinical management interventions. The data of 387 institutionalized adults aged over 60, diagnosed with dementia, was analyzed retrospectively. Information about sociodemographic, comorbidities, quality of life and leisure and free time variables was collected in a survey answered by caregivers; after 19 months, information was collected on the result variable (living vs. deceased). A multivariate logistic regression model was created to determine the factors associated with mortality, which were: age (odds ratio (OR)=1.986; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.229-3.209); diabetes (OR=2.322; 1.350-3.996); hypertension (OR=1.695; 1.044-2.752); diseases of the genitourinary system (OR=2.455;1.419-4.248), worsening of health over last twelve months (OR=1.653; 1.018-2.685) and not performing passive (OR=1.616; 0.968-2.700) or social (OR=2.242; 1.170-4.299) leisure activities. Besides age, the number of comorbid illnesses and the inability to perform leisure activities predicted mortality in institutionalized adults with dementia. These predictors might be useful clinical markers for identifying patients at increased risk for mortality. PMID:25103852

  11. Healthy lifestyle behaviors and all-cause mortality among adults in the United States✩

    PubMed Central

    Ford, Earl S.; Bergmann, Manuela M.; Boeing, Heiner; Li, Chaoyang; Capewell, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Objective To examine the links between three fundamental healthy lifestyle behaviors (not smoking, healthy diet, and adequate physical activity) and all-cause mortality in a national sample of adults in the United States. Method We used data from 8375 U.S. participants aged ≥ 20 years of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2002 who were followed through 2006. Results During a mean follow-up of 5.7 years, 745 deaths occurred. Compared with their counterparts, the risk for all-cause mortality was reduced by 56% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 35%–70%) among adults who were nonsmokers, 47% (95% CI: 36%, 57%) among adults who were physically active, and 26% (95% CI: 4%, 42%) among adults who consumed a healthy diet. Compared with participants who had no healthy behaviors, the risk decreased progressively as the number of healthy behaviors increased. Adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval were 0.60 (0.38, 0.95), 0.45 (0.30, 0.67), and 0.18 (0.11, 0.29) for 1, 2, and 3 healthy behaviors, respectively. Conclusion Adults who do not smoke, consume a healthy diet, and engage in sufficient physical activity can substantially reduce their risk for early death. PMID:22564893

  12. Mortality from duck plague virus in immunosuppressed adult mallard ducks

    SciTech Connect

    Goldberg, D.R.; Yuill, T.M.; Burgess, E.C. )

    1990-07-01

    Environmental contaminants contain chemicals that, if ingested, could affect the immunological status of wild birds, and in particular, their resistance to infectious disease. Immunosuppression caused by environmental contaminants, could have a major impact on waterfowl populations, resulting in increased susceptibility to contagious disease agents. Duck plague virus has caused repeated outbreaks in waterfowl resulting in mortality. In this study, several doses of cyclophosphamide (CY), a known immunosuppressant, were administered to adult mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) to determine if a resultant decrease in resistance to a normally sub-lethal strain of duck plague virus would occur, and induce mortality in these birds. Death occurred in birds given CY only, and in birds given virus and CY, but not in those given virus only. There was significantly greater mortality and more rapid deaths in the duck plague virus-infected groups than in groups receiving only the immunosuppressant. A positively correlated dose-response effect was observed with CY mortalities, irrespective of virus exposure. A fuel oil and a crude oil, common environmental contaminants with immunosuppressive capabilities, were tested to determine if they could produce an effect similar to that of CY. Following 28 days of oral oil administration, the birds were challenged with a sub-lethal dose of duck plague virus. No alteration in resistance to the virus (as measured by mortality) was observed, except in the positive CY control group.

  13. Mortality from duck plague virus in immunosuppressed adult mallard ducks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Goldberg, D.R.; Yuill, Thomas M.; Burgess, E.C.

    1990-01-01

    Environmental contaminants contain chemicals that, if ingested, could affect the immunological status of wild birds, and in particular, their resistance to infectious disease. Immunosuppression caused by environmental contaminants, could have a major impact on waterfowl populations, resulting in increased susceptibility to contagious disease agents. Duck plague virus has caused repeated outbreaks in waterfowl resulting in mortality. In this study, several doses of cyclophosphamide (CY), a known immunosuppressant, were administered to adult mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) to determine if a resultant decrease in resistance to a normally sub-lethal strain of duck plague virus would occur, and induce mortality in these birds. Death occurred in birds given CY only, and in birds given virus and CY, but not in those given virus only. There was significantly greater mortality and more rapid deaths in the duck plague virus-infected groups than in groups receiving only the immunosuppressant. A positively correlated dose-response effect was observed with CY mortalities, irrespective of virus exposure. A fuel oil and a crude oil, common environmental contaminants with immunosuppressive capabilities, were tested to determine if they could produce an effect similar to that of CY. Following 28 days of oral oil administration, the birds were challenged with a sub-lethal dose of duck plague virus. No alteration in resistance to the virus (as measured by mortality) was observed, except in the positive CY control group.

  14. Socioeconomic Disparity in Inpatient Mortality Following Traumatic Injury in Adults

    PubMed Central

    Ali, Mays T.; Hui, Xuan; Hashmi, Zain G.; Dhiman, Nitasha; Scott, Valerie K.; Efron, David; Schneider, Eric B.; Haider, Adil H.

    2013-01-01

    Background Prior studies have demonstrated that race and insurance status predict inpatient trauma mortality, but have been limited by their inability to adjust for direct measures of socioeconomic status (SES) and comorbidities. Our study aims to identify whether a relationship exists between SES and inpatient trauma mortality, after adjusting for known confounders. Methods Trauma patients aged 18–65 years with Injury Severity Scores (ISS) ≥ 9 were identified using the 2003–2009 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Median household income (MHI) by zip code, available by quartiles, was used to measure SES. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to determine odds of inpatient mortality by MHI quartile, adjusting for ISS, type of injury, comorbidities, and patient demographics. Results 267,621 patients met inclusion criteria. Patients in lower wealth quartiles had significantly higher unadjusted inpatient mortality compared with the wealthiest quartile. Adjusted odds of death were also higher compared with the wealthiest quartile for Q1 (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06–1.20), Q2 (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02–1.17), and Q3 (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04–1.19). Conclusions Median household income predicts inpatient mortality after adult trauma, even after adjusting for race, insurance status, and comorbidities. Efforts to mitigate trauma disparities should address SES as an independent predictor of outcomes. PMID:23972652

  15. Dietary Fiber, Kidney Function, Inflammation, and Mortality Risk

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Hong; Huang, Xiaoyan; Risérus, Ulf; Krishnamurthy, Vidya M.; Cederholm, Tommy; Ärnlöv, Johan; Lindholm, Bengt; Sjögren, Per

    2014-01-01

    Background and objectives In the United States population, high dietary fiber intake has been associated with a lower risk of inflammation and mortality in individuals with kidney dysfunction. This study aimed to expand such findings to a Northern European population. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Dietary fiber intake was calculated from 7-day dietary records in 1110 participants aged 70–71 years from the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (examinations performed during 1991–1995). Dietary fiber was adjusted for total energy intake by the residual method. Renal function was estimated from the concentration of serum cystatin C, and deaths were registered prospectively during a median follow-up of 10.0 years. Results Dietary fiber independently and directly associated with eGFR (adjusted difference, 2.6 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per 10 g/d higher; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.3 to 4.9). The odds of C-reactive protein >3 mg/L were lower (linear trend, P=0.002) with higher fiber quartiles. During follow-up, 300 participants died (incidence rate of 2.87 per 100 person-years at risk). Multiplicative interactions were observed between dietary fiber intake and kidney dysfunction in the prediction of mortality. Higher dietary fiber was associated with lower mortality in unadjusted analysis. These associations were stronger in participants with kidney dysfunction (eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) (hazard ratio [HR], 0.58; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.98) than in those without (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.76 to 2.22; P value for interaction, P=0.04), and were mainly explained by a lower incidence of cancer-related deaths (0.25; 95% CI, 0.10 to 0.65) in individuals with kidney dysfunction versus individuals with an eGFR≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (1.61; 95% CI, 0.69 to 3.74; P value for interaction, P=0.01). Conclusions High dietary fiber was associated with better kidney function and lower inflammation in community-dwelling elderly men from Sweden. High dietary fiber was also

  16. Leisure-Time Running Reduces All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality Risk

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Duck-chul; Pate, Russell R.; Lavie, Carl J.; Sui, Xuemei; Church, Timothy S.; Blair, Steven N.

    2014-01-01

    Background Although running is a popular leisure-time physical activity, little is known about the long-term effects of running on mortality. The dose-response relations between running, as well as the change in running behaviors over time and mortality remain uncertain. Objectives We examined the associations of running with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks in 55,137 adults, aged 18 to 100 years (mean age, 44). Methods Running was assessed on the medical history questionnaire by leisure-time activity. Results During a mean follow-up of 15 years, 3,413 all-cause and 1,217 cardiovascular deaths occurred. Approximately, 24% of adults participated in running in this population. Compared with non-runners, runners had 30% and 45% lower adjusted risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, with a 3-year life expectancy benefit. In dose-response analyses, the mortality benefits in runners were similar across quintiles of running time, distance, frequency, amount, and speed, compared with non-runners. Weekly running even <51 minutes, <6 miles, 1-2 times, <506 metabolic equivalent-minutes, or <6 mph was sufficient to reduce risk of mortality, compared with not running. In the analyses of change in running behaviors and mortality, persistent runners had the most significant benefits with 29% and 50% lower risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, compared with never-runners. Conclusions Running, even 5-10 minutes per day and slow speeds <6 mph, is associated with markedly reduced risks of death from all causes and cardiovascular disease. This study may motivate healthy but sedentary individuals to begin and continue running for substantial and attainable mortality benefits. PMID:25082581

  17. Risk factors for death among adults with severe asthma

    PubMed Central

    Omachi, Theodore A; Iribarren, Carlos; Sarkar, Urmimala; Tolstykh, Irina; Yelin, Edward H.; Katz, Patricia P.; Blanc, Paul D.; Eisner, Mark D.

    2009-01-01

    Background Mortality risk in adult asthma is poorly understood, especially the interplay between race, disease severity, and health-care access. Objective To examine mortality risk factors in adult asthma. Methods In a prospective cohort study of 865 adults with severe asthma in a closed-panel managed-care organization, we used structured interviews to assess baseline sociodemographics, asthma history, and health status. Subjects were followed until death or end of study, with a two-year average follow-up time. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate the impact of sociodemographics, cigarette smoking, and validated measures of perceived asthma control, physical health status, and severity-of-asthma on the risk of death. Results We confirmed 123 deaths, a mortality rate of 6.7 per 100 person-years. In analysis adjusted for sociodemographics and tobacco history, higher severity-of-asthma scores (hazard ratios [HR], 1.11 per ½ standard deviation increase in severity-of-asthma score; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 - 1.23) and lower perceived asthma control scores (HR, 0.91 per ½ standard deviation increase in perceived asthma control score, 95% CI, 0.83 - 0.99) were each associated with risk of all-cause mortality. In the same adjusted analysis, African American race was not associated with an increased mortality risk relative to white race (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.35 - 1.12). Conclusions In a large managed-care organization in which access to care is unlikely to vary widely, greater severity-of-asthma scores and poorer perceived asthma control scores are each associated with increased mortality risk among adults with severe asthma, but African Americans are not at increased risk of death relative to whites. PMID:18727467

  18. Body mass index and mortality in nonsmoking older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

    PubMed Central

    Diehr, P; Bild, D E; Harris, T B; Duxbury, A; Siscovick, D; Rossi, M

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This study assesses the relationship of body mass index to 5-year mortality in a cohort of 4317 nonsmoking men and women aged 65 to 100 years. METHODS: Logistic regression analyses were conducted to predict mortality as a function of baseline body mass index, adjusting for demographic, clinical, and laboratory covariates. RESULTS: There was an inverse relationship between body mass index and mortality; death rates were higher for those who weighed the least. Inclusion of covariates had trivial effects on these results. People who had lost 10% or more of their body weight since age 50 had a relatively high death rate. When that group was excluded, there was no remaining relationship between body mass index and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The association between higher body mass index and mortality often found in middle-aged populations was not observed in this large cohort of older adults. Over-weight does not seem to be a risk factor for 5-year mortality in this age group. Rather, the risks associated with significant weight loss should be the primary concern. PMID:9551005

  19. Mortality from treatable illnesses in marginally housed adults: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Andrea A; Vila-Rodriguez, Fidel; Leonova, Olga; Langheimer, Verena; Lang, Donna J; Barr, Alasdair M; Procyshyn, Ric M; Smith, Geoffrey N; Schultz, Krista; Buchanan, Tari; Krausz, Michael; Montaner, Julio S; MacEwan, G William; Rauscher, Alexander; Panenka, William J; Thornton, Allen E; Honer, William G

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Socially disadvantaged people experience greater risk for illnesses that may contribute to premature death. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of treatable illnesses on mortality among adults living in precarious housing. Design A prospective cohort based in a community sample. Setting A socially disadvantaged neighbourhood in Vancouver, Canada. Participants Adults (N=371) living in single room occupancy hotels or recruited from the Downtown Community Court and followed for median 3.8 years. Main outcome measures Participants were assessed for physical and mental illnesses for which treatment is currently available. We compared cohort mortality rates with 2009 Canadian rates. Left-truncated Cox proportional hazards modelling with age as the time scale was used to assess risk factors for earlier mortality. Results During 1269 person-years of observation, 31/371 (8%) of participants died. Compared with age-matched and sex-matched Canadians, the standardised mortality ratio was 8.29 (95% CI 5.83 to 11.79). Compared with those that had cleared the virus, active hepatitis C infection was a significant predictor for hepatic fibrosis adjusting for alcohol dependence and age (OR=2.96, CI 1.37 to 7.08). Among participants <55 years of age, psychosis (HR=8.12, CI 1.55 to 42.47) and hepatic fibrosis (HR=13.01, CI 3.56 to 47.57) were associated with earlier mortality. Treatment rates for these illnesses were low (psychosis: 32%, hepatitis C virus: 0%) compared with other common disorders (HIV: 57%, opioid dependence: 61%) in this population. Conclusions Hepatic fibrosis and psychosis are associated with increased mortality in people living in marginal conditions. Timely diagnosis and intervention could reduce the high mortality in marginalised inner city populations. PMID:26297373

  20. HIV-associated adult mortality in a rural Tanzanian population.

    PubMed

    Todd, J; Balira, R; Grosskurth, H; Mayaud, P; Mosha, F; ka-Gina, G; Klokke, A; Gabone, R; Gavyole, A; Mabey, D; Hayes, R

    1997-05-01

    A cohort of 12,501 adults aged 15-54 years was randomly selected from 12 rural communities in Mwanza region, Tanzania, in 1991-92 and followed for 2 years to assess the contribution of HIV/AIDS to mortality in the region. HIV seroprevalence in the sample was 4% at baseline. 73 of the 196 deaths recorded over the period occurred among HIV-positive individuals. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 6.0 among the HIV-seronegative and 93.5 among the HIV-seropositive. The age-adjusted mortality rate ratio was 15.68 overall. 35% of overall mortality was attributed to HIV infection, 53% among those age 20-29 years. Verbal autopsies administered for each death reported showed that HIV-positive deaths were significantly associated with fever, rash, weight loss, anemia, cough, chest pain, abdominal pain, and headache. The specificity of individual symptoms, however, was low. The World Health Organization clinical case definition of AIDS was satisfied for only 13 deaths, of which seven were HIV-positive at baseline. HIV/AIDS was mentioned during the verbal autopsy interview by only seven respondents as being associated with a given death. PMID:9143613

  1. Performance of Multiple Risk Assessment Tools to Predict Mortality for Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Therapy: An External Validation Study Based on Chinese Single-center Data

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Lei; Li, Tong; Xu, Lei; Hu, Xiao-Min; Duan, Da-Wei; Li, Zhi-Bo; Gao, Xin-Jing; Li, Jun; Wu, Peng; Liu, Ying-Wu; Wang, Song; Lang, Yu-Heng

    2016-01-01

    Background: There has been no external validation of survival prediction models for severe adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) therapy in China. The aim of study was to compare the performance of multiple models recently developed for patients with ARDS undergoing ECMO based on Chinese single-center data. Methods: A retrospective case study was performed, including twenty-three severe ARDS patients who received ECMO from January 2009 to July 2015. The PRESERVE (Predicting death for severe ARDS on VV-ECMO), ECMOnet, Respiratory Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Survival Prediction (RESP) score, a center-specific model developed for inter-hospital transfers receiving ECMO, and the classical risk-prediction scores of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) were calculated. In-hospital and six-month mortality were regarded as the endpoints and model performance was evaluated by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: The RESP and APACHE II scores showed excellent discriminate performance in predicting survival with AUC of 0.835 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.659–1.010, P = 0.007) and 0.762 (95% CI, 0.558–0.965, P = 0.035), respectively. The optimal cutoff values were risk class 3.5 for RESP and 35.5 for APACHE II score, and both showed 70.0% sensitivity and 84.6% specificity. The excellent performance of these models was also evident for the pneumonia etiological subgroup, for which the SOFA score was also shown to be predictive, with an AUC of 0.790 (95% CI, 0.571–1.009, P = 0.038). However, the ECMOnet and the score developed for externally retrieved ECMO patients failed to demonstrate significant discriminate power for the overall cohort. The PRESERVE model was unable to be evaluated fully since only one patient died six months postdischarge. Conclusions: The RESP, APCHAE II, and SOFA scorings

  2. Late Pleistocene adult mortality patterns and modern human establishment

    PubMed Central

    Trinkaus, Erik

    2011-01-01

    The establishment of modern humans in the Late Pleistocene, subsequent to their emergence in eastern Africa, is likely to have involved substantial population increases, during their initial dispersal across southern Asia and their subsequent expansions throughout Africa and into more northern Eurasia. An assessment of younger (20–40 y) versus older (>40 y) adult mortality distributions for late archaic humans (principally Neandertals) and two samples of early modern humans (Middle Paleolithic and earlier Upper Paleolithic) provides little difference across the samples. All three Late Pleistocene samples have a dearth of older individuals compared with Holocene ethnographic/historical samples. They also lack older adults compared with Holocene paleodemographic profiles that have been critiqued for having too few older individuals for subsistence, social, and demographic viability. Although biased, probably through a combination of preservation, age assessment, and especially Pleistocene mobility requirements, these adult mortality distributions suggest low life expectancy and demographic instability across these Late Pleistocene human groups. They indicate only subtle and paleontologically invisible changes in human paleodemographics with the establishment of modern humans; they provide no support for a life history advantage among early modern humans. PMID:21220336

  3. Mortality Risk Prediction by Application of Pediatric Risk of Mortality Scoring System in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Khajeh, Ali; Noori, Noor Mohammad; Reisi, Mohsen; Fayyazi, Afshin; Mohammadi, Mahdi; Miri-Aliabad, Ghasem

    2013-01-01

    Objective The Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) score is one of the scores used by many pediatricians for prediction of the mortality risk in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Herein, we intend to evaluate the efficacy of PRISM score in prediction of mortality rate in PICU. Methods In this cohort study, 221 children admitted during an 18-month period to PICU, were enrolled. PRISM score and mortality risk were calculated. Follow up was noted as death or discharge. Results were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curve, ROC curve, Log Rank (Mantel-Cox), Logistic regression model using SPSS 15. Findings Totally, 57% of the patients were males. Forty seven patients died during the study period. The PRISM score was 0-10 in 71%, 11-20 in 20.4% and 21-30 in 8.6%. PRISM score showed an increase of mortality from 10.2% in 0-10 score patients to 73.8% in 21-30 score ones. The survival time significantly decreased as PRISM score increased (P≤0.001). A 7.2 fold mortality risk was present in patients with score 21-30 compared with score 0-10. ROC curve analysis for mortality according to PRISM score showed an under curve area of 80.3%. Conclusion PRISM score is a good predictor for evaluation of mortality risk in PICU. PMID:24800015

  4. Effect of physical activity on mortality risk among Americans with retinopathy

    PubMed Central

    Loprinzi, Paul D.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Previous work demonstrates that retinopathy is associated with increased mortality risk, with physical activity inversely associated with retinopathy and all-cause mortality. However, no study has evaluated the effects of physical activity on mortality among those with existing retinopathy, which was this study’s purpose. Methods: Data from the 2005-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were utilized, with follow-up through 2011. Retinopathy was objectively-measured using the Canon Non-Mydriatic Retinal Camera CR6-45NM. Physical activity was objectively-measured via up to 7 days of accelerometry assessment. Results: Six-hundred and seventy one adults (40-85 years) with complete data on the study variables constituted the analytic sample. During the follow-up period, 91 deaths occurred. In the sample, 35 886 person-months occurred with a mortality incidence rate of 2.5 deaths per1000 person-months. Among participants with mild retinopathy, those who met physical activity guidelines at baseline had a 63% reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR adjusted = 0.37; 95% CI:0.18-0.75; P = 0.007). Notably, physical activity was not associated with mortality risk among those with moderate/severe retinopathy (HR adjusted = 0.371.72; 95% CI: 0.62-4.76; P = 0.27). Conclusion: Physical activity is associated with reduced mortality risk among those with mild retinopathy, but not among those with moderate/severe retinopathy. PMID:27579262

  5. Risk factors for early infant mortality in Sarlahi district, Nepal.

    PubMed Central

    Katz, Joanne; West, Keith P.; Khatry, Subarna K.; Christian, Parul; LeClerq, Steven C.; Pradhan, Elizabeth Kimbrough; Shrestha, Sharada Ram

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Early infant mortality has not declined as rapidly as child mortality in many countries. Identification of risk factors for early infant mortality may help inform the design of intervention strategies. METHODS: Over the period 1994-97, 15,469 live-born, singleton infants in rural Nepal were followed to 24 weeks of age to identify risk factors for mortality within 0-7 days, 8-28 days, and 4-24 weeks after the birth. FINDINGS: In multivariate models, maternal and paternal education reduced mortality between 4 and 24 weeks only: odds ratios (OR) 0.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12-0.66) and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.44-0.88), respectively. Miscarriage in the previous pregnancy predicted mortality in the first week of life (OR = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.37-2.87), whereas prior child deaths increased the risk of post-neonatal death (OR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.24-2.75). A larger maternal mid-upper arm circumference reduced the risk of infant death during the first week of life (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.81-0.95). Infants of women who did not receive any tetanus vaccinations during pregnancy or who had severe illness during the third trimester were more likely to die in the neonatal period. Maternal mortality was strongly associated with infant mortality (OR = 6.43, 95% CI = 2.35-17.56 at 0-7 days; OR = 11.73, 95% CI = 3.82-36.00 at 8-28 days; and OR = 51.68, 95% CI = 20.26-131.80 at 4-24 weeks). CONCLUSION: Risk factors for early infant mortality varied with the age of the infant. Factors amenable to intervention included efforts aimed at maternal morbidity and mortality and increased arm circumference during pregnancy. PMID:14758431

  6. Inflammatory bowel disease and risk of mortality in COPD.

    PubMed

    Vutcovici, Maria; Bitton, Alain; Ernst, Pierre; Kezouh, Abbas; Suissa, Samy; Brassard, Paul

    2016-05-01

    Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have higher incidence and prevalence of other chronic inflammatory diseases, including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We assessed whether IBD onset increases mortality risk in patients with COPD or asthma-associated COPD.Two population-based cohorts of COPD and asthma-COPD subjects were identified using the administrative health databases in Québec, Canada, 1990-2007. Death records were retrieved from the death certificate registry. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the impact of newly developed IBD on mortality risk.The COPD and asthma-COPD cohorts included 273 208 and 26 575 patients, respectively, of which 697 and 119 developed IBD. IBD increased the risk of all-cause mortality in both COPD (hazard ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.09-1.4) and asthma-COPD (hazard ratio 1.65, 95% CI 1.23-2.22). In asthma-COPD patients, IBD increased the risk of mortality from respiratory conditions (hazard ratio 2.18, 95% CI 1.31-3.64); in COPD patients, IBD increased the risk of death from digestive conditions (hazard ratio 4.45, 95% CI 2.39-8.30).IBD is a risk factor for mortality in patients with pre-existing COPD or asthma-COPD. IBD increased mortality by respiratory and digestive conditions in patients with asthma-COPD and COPD, respectively. PMID:26869671

  7. Risk factors and predictors of mortality for proximal humeral fractures

    PubMed Central

    Gooding, Benjamin WT; Manning, Paul A; Wallace, W Angus; Geoghegan, John M

    2014-01-01

    Background Risk factors for mortality after proximal humeral fracture, including socioeconomic status, are poorly defined. This retrospective review of prospectively collected data defines the epidemiology and predictors of mortality in association with proximal humeral fractures. Methods Patients who sustained proximal humeral fractures were identified from fragility fracture and trauma databases between May 2001 and September 2012. Results In total, 1880 patients with a mean age of 69 years and a male to female ratio of 2 : 3 were identified. Socioeconomic distribution is skewed towards the lowest and highest quintiles. Low-energy mechanisms caused 88% of fractures. Men sustain fractures when they are aged 10 years younger and via higher-energy mechanisms. In total, 536 patients (29%) died within the study period with a 1-year mortality of 9.8%, rising to 28.2% at 5 years. Female gender, increasing age, pathological fracture and increased number of co-morbidities were independent variables for increased mortality. Conclusions The present study, which was conducted over an 11-year period, is the first to combine the epidemiology and risk factors for mortality with socioeconomic rank. One-year mortality risk is twice that of the background matched population. Patient counselling with respect to increased mortality should be considered, especially in higher-risk elderly females with multiple co-morbidities.

  8. Pain and mortality risk among elderly persons in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Kåreholt, I; Brattberg, G

    1998-09-01

    The aim of this study is to analyse how the mortality risk varies with mild or severe pain in different locations: chest, back and hips, shoulders, the extremities, abdomen, rectum and head. A Swedish nationally representative sample of 1930 persons born 1892-1915 were interviewed in 1968 (ages 53-76). Survivors were also interviewed in 1974 and 1981 if they had not passed the age of 75 years. Proportional hazard regression was used to analyze mortality risk among persons ages 53-98 years for the period 1968-1991. Relationships were found between mortality risk and headache, chest pain, abdominal pain, pain in the extremities and rectal pain. No relationships were found between mortality and pain in back and hips or in shoulders. There was a correlation between chest pain and increased mortality among both men and women, but the association was significantly stronger among men. There was a significant association between severe rectal pain and mortality among men but no similar association among women. Significant associations between mortality and chest pain and abdominal pain were found among persons younger than 80 years, but not among those older than 80 years. Pain is an indicator of the quality of life and a symptom of underlying medical conditions. The finding that there are relationships between mortality risk and pain in the chest, abdomen, rectum, the extremities and head may be of clinical relevance. These results, however, must be further investigated since the relationships between reported pain and mortality do not imply that pain in these locations is necessarily symptomatic of lethal diseases. Abdominal pain, rectal pain and headache may be indicators of diseases but can also be side effects of treatments for other diseases correlated with higher mortality. PMID:9808352

  9. Measuring Adult Mortality Using Sibling Survival: A New Analytical Method and New Results for 44 Countries, 1974–2006

    PubMed Central

    Obermeyer, Ziad; Rajaratnam, Julie Knoll; Park, Chang H.; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Hogan, Margaret C.; Lopez, Alan D.; Murray, Christopher J. L.

    2010-01-01

    15—the probability of a 15-y old dying before his or her 60th birthday—for 44 countries with DHS sibling survival data. Our findings suggest that levels of adult mortality prevailing in many developing countries are substantially higher than previously suggested by other analyses of sibling history data. Generally, our estimates show the risk of adult death between ages 15 and 60 y to be about 20%–35% for females and 25%–45% for males in sub-Saharan African populations largely unaffected by HIV. In countries of Southern Africa, where the HIV epidemic has been most pronounced, as many as eight out of ten men alive at age 15 y will be dead by age 60, as will six out of ten women. Adult mortality levels in populations of Asia and Latin America are generally lower than in Africa, particularly for women. The exceptions are Haiti and Cambodia, where mortality risks are comparable to many countries in Africa. In all other countries with data, the probability of dying between ages 15 and 60 y was typically around 10% for women and 20% for men, not much higher than the levels prevailing in several more developed countries. Conclusions Our results represent an expansion of direct knowledge of levels and trends in adult mortality in the developing world. The CSS method provides grounds for renewed optimism in collecting sibling survival data. We suggest that all nationally representative survey programs with adequate sample size ought to implement this critical module for tracking adult mortality in order to more reliably understand the levels and patterns of adult mortality, and how they are changing. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20405004

  10. Determinants of mortality among older adults with pressure ulcers.

    PubMed

    Khor, Hui Min; Tan, Juan; Saedon, Nor Izzati; Kamaruzzaman, Shahrul B; Chin, Ai Vyrn; Poi, Philip J H; Tan, Maw Pin

    2014-01-01

    The presence of pressure ulcers imposes a huge burden on the older person's quality of life and significantly increases their risk of dying. The objective of this study was to determine patient characteristics associated with the presence of pressure ulcers and to evaluate the risk factors associated with mortality among older patients with pressure ulcers. A prospective observational study was performed between Oct 2012 and May 2013. Patients with preexisting pressure ulcers on admission and those with hospital acquired pressure ulcers were recruited into the study. Information on patient demographics, functional status, nutritional level, stages of pressure ulcer and their complications were obtained. Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to assess the risk of death in all patients. 76/684 (11.1%) patients had pre-existing pressure ulcers on admission and 30/684 (4.4%) developed pressure ulcers in hospital. There were 68 (66%) deaths by the end of the median follow-up period of 12 (IQR 2.5-14) weeks. Our Cox regression model revealed that nursing home residence (Hazard Ratio, HR=2.33, 95% confidence interval, CI=1.30, 4.17; p=0.005), infected deep pressure ulcers (HR=2.21, 95% CI=1.26, 3.87; p=0.006) and neutrophilia (HR=1.76; 95% CI 1.05, 2.94; p=0.031) were independent predictors of mortality in our elderly patients with pressure ulcers. The prevalence of pressure ulcers in our setting is comparable to previously reported figures in Europe and North America. Mortality in patients with pressure ulcer was high, and was predicted by institutionalization, concurrent infection and high neutrophil counts. PMID:25091603

  11. Causes of Mortality and Risk Factors for Injury Mortality among Children in the Agricultural Health Study.

    PubMed

    Flower, Kori B; Hoppin, Jane A; Shore, David L; Lynch, Charles F; Blair, Aaron; Knott, Charles; Alavanja, Michael C R; Sandler, Dale P

    2007-06-01

    Farm children face unique health risks due to sharing their residential environment with hazardous machinery and materials. Causes of mortality among farm children have not been comprehensively described. OBJECTIVE: In the Agricultural Health Study (AHS) cohort, we examined causes of mortality among 21,360 children in Iowa and North Carolina between 1975 and 1998. METHODS: We matched identifying information for children provided by mothers on self-administered questionnaires to state death registries (1975-1998). Data on farm and family characteristics were provided by parents via enrollment questionnaires (1993-1997). Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated, using state mortality data to generate expected deaths. We used logistic regression to examine parent, child and farm characteristics associated with injury mortality. RESULTS: There were 162 deaths in Iowa (SMR=0.69; 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.60, 0.81) and 26 deaths in North Carolina (SMR=0.42; 95%CI=0.28, 0.61) in children aged 0-19 years. This deficit was largely due to deaths in the first year of life. Although deaths from overall unintentional injury were not increased, excess agricultural machinery mortality was observed in Iowa (SMR=9.25; 95% CI=5.12, 16.70). In case-control comparisons, maternal age less than 25 years at child's birth (OR=2.17; 95%CI=1.05, 4.49) and having more than 2 children in the family (OR=2.79; 95%CI=1.47, 5.30) were associated with increased child injury mortality. For children under 14 years, participation in farm work was associated with increased risk of agricultural machine-related mortality (OR=3.92; 95% CI=1.04, 14.78). CONCLUSIONS: Parent and child characteristics associated with child injury mortality could be used to target farm safety interventions. PMID:18535666

  12. Risk of flood-related mortality in Nepal.

    PubMed

    Pradhan, Elizabeth Kimbrough; West, Keith P; Katz, Joanne; LeClerq, Steven C; Khatry, Subarna K; Shrestha, Sharada Ram

    2007-03-01

    In July 1993, severe flooding devastated Sarlahi district in Nepal. The next month, a follow-up study of a large population cohort was undertaken. The study is unique in that a prospective research database was used to verify residency prior to the flood and to confirm vital status afterwards. It evaluated 41,501 children aged between two and nine years and adults aged 15-70 in 7,252 households. Flood-related fatality rates were 13.3 per 1,000 for girls and 9.4 per 1,000 for boys, 6.1 per 1,000 for women and 4.1 per 1,000 for men. Flood-related fatality rates for children were six times higher than mortality rates in the same villages a year before the flood (relative risk (RR) = 5.9, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 5.0-6.8). Flood-related fatality was associated with low socio-economic status preflood (RR = 6.4, 95 per cent CI 2.7-20.0), and having a house constructed of thatch (RR = 5.1, 95 per cent CI 1.7-24.5). PMID:17367374

  13. Weight Change and All-Cause Mortality in Older Adults: A Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Feon W; Gao, Xiang; Jensen, Gordon L

    2015-01-01

    This meta-analysis of observational cohort studies examined the association between weight change (weight loss, weight gain, and weight fluctuation) and all-cause mortality among older adults. We used Pub Med (MEDLINE), Web of Science, and Cochrane Library to identify prospective studies published in English from inception to November 2014. Seventeen prospective studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. Higher all-cause mortality risks were noted with weight change: weight loss (pooled RR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.51-1.85; p < 0.001 for heterogeneity), weight gain (pooled RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09-1.33; p = 0.03 for heterogeneity), and weight fluctuation (pooled RR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.36-1.72; p = 0.43 for heterogeneity). Similar results were observed with stricter criteria for sensitivity analyses. None of the study characteristics had statistically significant effects on the pooled RR, except for study quality on weight loss. Weight change is associated with higher mortality risk among community-dwelling adults 60 years and older. PMID:26571354

  14. Physical Activity, Sitting Time and Mortality in Older Adults with Diabetes.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Gómez, D; Guallar-Castillon, P; Mota, J; Lopez-Garcia, E; Rodriguez-Artalejo, F

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the independent and combined association of physical activity (PA) and sitting time (ST) with all-cause mortality in older adults with diabetes. A total of 611 individuals representative of the Spanish diabetic population aged ≥ 60 years. Participants were selected in 2000/2001 and were prospectively followed-up through 2011. PA and ST were self-reported at baseline. Study associations were summarized as hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence interval (CI). During a mean follow-up of 8.3 years, 282 deaths occurred. The HR (95% CI) of mortality for very/moderately active individuals compared to those who were inactive/less active was 0.59 (0.45, 0.78). The association between ST and mortality was non-linear (P<0.001 in spline analysis), and mortality was increased only among individuals who reported a ST>8 h/day (HR=1.77, 95% CI 1.25, 2.52). The HR (95% CI) of mortality was 0.50 (0.32, 0.77) in participants who either were very/moderately active or had ST≤8 h/day, and 0.32 (0.20, 0.50) in those with both health behaviors, compared to those with none of these behaviors. In conclusion, among older adults with diabetes, high PA and less ST are independently and jointly associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality. PMID:26332898

  15. Time Preferences Predict Mortality among HIV-Infected Adults Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Thirumurthy, Harsha; Hayashi, Kami; Linnemayr, Sebastian; Vreeman, Rachel C.; Levin, Irwin P.; Bangsberg, David R.; Brewer, Noel T.

    2015-01-01

    Background Identifying characteristics of HIV-infected adults likely to have poor treatment outcomes can be useful for targeting interventions efficiently. Research in economics and psychology suggests that individuals’ intertemporal time preferences, which indicate the extent to which they trade-off immediate vs. future cost and benefits, can influence various health behaviors. While there is empirical support for the association between time preferences and various non-HIV health behaviors and outcomes, the extent to which time preferences predict outcomes of those receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) has not been examined previously. Methods HIV-infected adults initiating ART were enrolled at a health facility in Kenya. Participants’ time preferences were measured at enrollment and used to classify them as having either a low or high discount rate for future benefits. At 48 weeks, we assessed mortality and ART adherence, as measured by Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS). Logistic regression models adjusting for socio-economic characteristics and risk factors were used to determine the association between time preferences and mortality as well as MEMS adherence ≥90%. Results Overall, 44% (96/220) of participants were classified as having high discount rates. Participants with high discount rates had significantly higher 48-week mortality than participants with low discount rates (9.3% vs. 3.1%; adjusted odds ratio 3.84; 95% CI 1.03, 14.50). MEMS adherence ≥90% was similar for participants with high vs. low discount rates (42.3% vs. 49.6%, AOR 0.70; 95% CI 0.40, 1.25). Conclusion High discount rates were associated with significantly higher risk of mortality among HIV-infected patients initiating ART. Greater use of time preference measures may improve identification of patients at risk of poor clinical outcomes. More research is needed to further identify mechanisms of action and also to build upon and test the generalizability of this finding

  16. Association of Religious Participation With Mortality Among Chinese Old Adults

    PubMed Central

    Zeng, Yi; Gu, Danan; George, Linda K.

    2012-01-01

    This research examines the association of religious participation with mortality using a longitudinal data set collected from 9,017 oldest-old aged 85+ and 6,956 younger elders aged 65 to 84 in China in 2002 and 2005 and hazard models. Results show that adjusted for demographics, family/social support, and health practices, risk of dying was 24% (p < 0.001) and 12% (p < 0.01) lower among frequent and infrequent religious participants than among nonparticipants for all elders aged 65+. After baseline health was adjusted, the corresponding risk of dying declined to 21% (p < 0.001) and 6% (not significant), respectively. The authors also conducted hazard models analysis for men versus women and for young-old versus oldest-old, respectively, adjusted for single-year age; the authors found that gender differentials of association of religious participation with mortality among all elderly aged 65+ were not significant; association among young-old men was significantly stronger than among oldest-old men, but no such significant young-old versus oldest-old differentials in women were found. PMID:22448080

  17. Prison structure, inmate mortality and suicide risk in Europe.

    PubMed

    Rabe, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    Suicide presents a major complication during imprisonment and greatly contributes to the high mortality rate of prisoners. All international studies have found increased suicide rates among prisoners compared to the general population. This study examines risk factors for suicide and mortality in prisoners using supranational data from the Council of Europe Annual Penal Statistics (Statistiques Penales Annuelles du Conseil du L'Europe or SPACE) from 1997 to 2008. Macrostructural risk factors for prison suicide are analyzed from this supranational data set and the identified indicators are further evaluated on the single country level. Sexual offenders, offenders charged with violent crimes and prisoners sentenced for short- and long-term imprisonment are considered to be at an elevated risk for suicide. In addition, prison mortality is associated with overcrowding. PMID:22445577

  18. Leading Causes of Unintentional Injury and Suicide Mortality in Canadian Adults Across the Urban-Rural Continuum

    PubMed Central

    Auger, Nathalie; Gamache, Philippe; Hamel, Denis

    2013-01-01

    Objective We examined the leading causes of unintentional injury and suicide mortality in adults across the urban-rural continuum. Methods Injury mortality data were drawn from a representative cohort of 2,735,152 Canadians aged ≥25 years at baseline, who were followed for mortality from 1991 to 2001. We estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for urban-rural continuum and cause-specific unintentional injury (i.e., motor vehicle, falls, poisoning, drowning, suffocation, and fire/burn) and suicide (i.e., hanging, poisoning, firearm, and jumping) mortality, adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Results Rates of unintentional injury mortality were elevated in less urbanized areas for both males and females. We found an urban-rural gradient for motor vehicle, drowning, and fire/burn deaths, but not for fall, poisoning, or suffocation deaths. Urban-rural differences in suicide risk were observed for males but not females. Declining urbanization was associated with higher risks of firearm suicides and lower risks of jumping suicides, but there was no apparent trend in hanging and poisoning suicides. Conclusion Urban-rural gradients in adults were more pronounced for unintentional motor vehicle, drowning, and fire/burn deaths, as well as for firearm and jumping suicide deaths than for other causes of injury mortality. These results suggest that the degree of urbanization may be an important consideration in guiding prevention efforts for many causes of injury fatality. PMID:24179256

  19. Risk factors for mortality in users of ibopamine

    PubMed Central

    Feenstra, J; in′t Veld, B A; van der Linden, P D; Grobbee, D E; Stricker, B H Ch

    1998-01-01

    Aims In September 1995, the indication for the oral dopamine agonist ibopamine was restricted in the Netherlands and in several other European countries to patients with NYHA-class II heart failure as a result of an interim analysis of the PRIME-II trial. This trial demonstrated an increased risk of mortality in patients with NYHA-class III/IV heart failure on ibopamine. In September 1995, we initiated an assessment of the effects of ibopamine under everyday circumstances in a cohort of users of ibopamine in all NYHA-classes. Methods In a nationwide retrospective cohort study all 2147 community pharmacies and drug dispensing general practitioners received a request to list all patients to whom they had dispensed ibopamine in the preceding years. All responding drug dispensing outlets (DDO) received a questionnaire on cardiovascular risk factors and mortality for the general practitioner of a random sample of these patients. DDO were also requested to send an anonymised printout of the complete medication record. On the end-date of follow-up, February 15th 1996, mortality rates were compared across categories of ibopamine use, adjusted for potential confounders. To assess medication use, drug exposure was compared in a 3 months’ period before date of death in the deceased, and before a random date in those patients who were still alive. Results In patients with NYHA-class III/IV heart failure, multivariate analysis indicated that current use of ibopamine was significantly associated with mortality (RR 1.37;95% CI: 1.15–1.64). In patients with NYHA-class I/II heart failure, however, multivariate analysis showed a 2.03 (95% CI: 1.10–3.72) risk of mortality in current users of ibopamine. Apart from current use of ibopamine, male gender and increased serum creatinine were also independent risk factors for mortality in all NYHA-classes. No statistically significant association was found between mortality and current use of amiodarone or use of amiodarone at

  20. Surprising SES Gradients in Mortality, Health, and Biomarkers in a Latin American Population of Adults

    PubMed Central

    Dow, William H.

    2009-01-01

    Background To determine socioeconomic status (SES) gradients in the different dimensions of health among elderly Costa Ricans. Hypothesis: SES disparities in adult health are minimal in Costa Rican society. Methods Data from the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging study: 8,000 elderly Costa Ricans to determine mortality in the period 2000–2007 and a subsample of 3,000 to determine prevalence of several health conditions and biomarkers from anthropometry and blood and urine specimens. Results The ultimate health indicator, mortality, as well as the metabolic syndrome, reveals that better educated and wealthier individuals are worse off. In contrast, quality of life–related measures such as functional and cognitive disabilities, physical frailty, and depression all clearly worsen with lower SES. Overall self-reported health (SRH) also shows a strong positive SES gradient. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors such as diabetes and cholesterol are not significantly related to SES, but hypertension and obesity are worse among high-SES individuals. Reflecting mixed SES gradients in behaviors, smoking and lack of exercise are more common among low SES, but high calorie diets are more common among high SES. Conclusions Negative modern behaviors among high-SES groups may be reversing cardiovascular risks across SES groups, hence reversing mortality risks. But negative SES gradients in healthy years of life persist. PMID:19196695

  1. Risk factors for mortality in patients with Stenotrophomonas maltophilia bacteremia

    PubMed Central

    Jeon, Yong Duk; Jeong, Woo Yong; Kim, Moo Hyun; Jung, In Young; Ahn, Mi Young; Ann, Hea Won; Ahn, Jin Young; Han, Sang Hoon; Choi, Jun Yong; Song, Young Goo; Kim, June Myung; Ku, Nam Su

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Stenotrophomonas maltophilia is a nosocomial pathogen associated with high morbidity and mortality, particularly in immunocompromised or critically ill patients. In this study, we investigated the risk factors for mortality in patients with S. maltophilia bacteremia. Retrospectively, medical records from all patients with S. maltophilia bacteremia between December 2005 and 2014 at Severance Hospital, a 2000-bed tertiary care hospital in Seoul, Korea, were reviewed. Analysis was performed to identify factors associated with 28-day mortality. In total, 142 bacteremia patients were enrolled in this study. The overall 28-day mortality rate was 36.6%. Based on the univariate analysis, hematologic malignancy (P = 0.015), Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (P < 0.001) and the removal of a central venous catheter (CVC) (P = 0.040) were significantly related to mortality. In the intensive care unit patients, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (P = 0.001) also had significance. Based on the multivariate analysis, the SOFA score (odds ratio [OR] = 1.323; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.159, 1.509; P < 0.001) and removal of the CVC (OR = 0.330; 95% CI: 0.109, 0.996; P = 0.049) were independent factors associated with mortality. Our results suggest that removing a CVC may considerably reduce mortality in patients with S. maltophilia bacteremia. PMID:27495046

  2. Adult non-communicable disease mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites

    PubMed Central

    Streatfield, P. Kim; Khan, Wasif A.; Bhuiya, Abbas; Hanifi, Syed M.A.; Alam, Nurul; Bagagnan, Cheik H.; Sié, Ali; Zabré, Pascal; Lankoandé, Bruno; Rossier, Clementine; Soura, Abdramane B.; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Kone, Siaka; Ngoran, Eliezer K.; Utzinger, Juerg; Haile, Fisaha; Melaku, Yohannes A.; Weldearegawi, Berhe; Gomez, Pierre; Jasseh, Momodou; Ansah, Patrick; Debpuur, Cornelius; Oduro, Abraham; Wak, George; Adjei, Alexander; Gyapong, Margaret; Sarpong, Doris; Kant, Shashi; Misra, Puneet; Rai, Sanjay K.; Juvekar, Sanjay; Lele, Pallavi; Bauni, Evasius; Mochamah, George; Ndila, Carolyne; Williams, Thomas N.; Laserson, Kayla F.; Nyaguara, Amek; Odhiambo, Frank O.; Phillips-Howard, Penelope; Ezeh, Alex; Kyobutungi, Catherine; Oti, Samuel; Crampin, Amelia; Nyirenda, Moffat; Price, Alison; Delaunay, Valérie; Diallo, Aldiouma; Douillot, Laetitia; Sokhna, Cheikh; Gómez-Olivé, F. Xavier; Kahn, Kathleen; Tollman, Stephen M.; Herbst, Kobus; Mossong, Joël; Chuc, Nguyen T.K.; Bangha, Martin; Sankoh, Osman A.; Byass, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Background Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organization's Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15–64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. Design All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15–64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Conclusions These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality

  3. Blood Lead and Other Metal Biomarkers as Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Aoki, Yutaka; Brody, Debra J.; Flegal, Katherine M.; Fakhouri, Tala H.I.; Parker, Jennifer D.; Axelrad, Daniel A.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Analyses of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) in 1988 to 1994 found an association of increasing blood lead levels <10 μg/dL with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. The potential need to correct blood lead for hematocrit/hemoglobin and adjust for biomarkers for other metals, for example, cadmium and iron, had not been addressed in the previous NHANES III-based studies on blood lead-CVD mortality association. We analyzed 1999 to 2010 NHANES data for 18,602 participants who had a blood lead measurement, were ≥40 years of age at the baseline examination and were followed for mortality through 2011. We calculated the relative risk for CVD mortality as a function of hemoglobin- or hematocrit-corrected log-transformed blood lead through Cox proportional hazard regression analysis with adjustment for serum iron, blood cadmium, serum C-reactive protein, serum calcium, smoking, alcohol intake, race/Hispanic origin, and sex. The adjusted relative risk for CVD mortality was 1.44 (95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.98) per 10-fold increase in hematocrit-corrected blood lead with little evidence of nonlinearity. Similar results were obtained with hemoglobin-corrected blood lead. Not correcting blood lead for hematocrit/hemoglobin resulted in underestimation of the lead-CVD mortality association while not adjusting for iron status and blood cadmium resulted in overestimation of the lead-CVD mortality association. In a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults, log-transformed blood lead was linearly associated with increased CVD mortality. Correcting blood lead for hematocrit/hemoglobin and adjustments for some biomarkers affected the association. PMID:26735529

  4. MORTALITY RISK VALUATION AND STATED PREFERENCE METHODS: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The purposes of this project are: (1) to improve understanding of cognitive processes involved in the valuation of mortality risk reductions that occur in an environmental pollution context, and (2) to translate this understanding into survey language appropriate for future stat...

  5. Psychosocial Distress and Stroke Risk in Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Henderson, Kimberly M.; Clark, Cari J.; Lewis, Tené T.; Aggarwal, Neelum T.; Beck, Todd; Guo, Hongfei; Lunos, Scott; Brearley, Ann; Mendes de Leon, Carlos F.; Evans, Denis A.; Everson-Rose, Susan A.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose To investigate the association of psychosocial distress with risk of stroke mortality and incident stroke in older adults. Methods Data were from the Chicago Health and Aging Project, a longitudinal population-based study conducted in three contiguous neighborhoods on the south side of Chicago, Illinois. Participants were community-dwelling black and non-Hispanic white adults, age 65 and older (N=4,120 for stroke mortality; N=2,649 for incident stroke). Psychosocial distress was an analytically-derived composite measure of depressive symptoms, perceived stress, neuroticism, and life dissatisfaction. Cox proportional hazards models examined the association of distress with stroke mortality and incident stroke over 6 years of follow-up. Results 151 stroke deaths and 452 incident strokes were identified. Adjusting for age, race, and sex, the hazard ratio (HR) for each 1-SD increase in distress was 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.28–1.70) for stroke mortality and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.07–1.30) for incident stroke. Associations were reduced following adjustment for stroke risk factors and remained significant for stroke mortality (HR=1.29; 95% CI=1.10–1.52) but not for incident stroke (HR=1.09; 95% CI=0.98–1.21). Secondary analyses of stroke subtypes showed that distress was strongly related to incident hemorrhagic strokes (HR=1.70; 95% CI=1.28–2.25) but not ischemic strokes (HR=1.02; 95% CI=0.91–1.15) in fully adjusted models. Conclusions Increasing levels of psychosocial distress are related to excess risk of both fatal and nonfatal stroke in older black and white adults. Additional research is needed to examine pathways linking psychosocial distress to cerebrovascular disease risk. PMID:23238864

  6. Increased Mortality Risk among the Visually Impaired: The Roles of Mental Well-Being and Preventive Care Practices

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, D. Diane; Christ, Sharon L.; Lam, Byron L.; Arheart, Kristopher L.; Galor, Anat; Lee, David J.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose. Mechanisms by which visual impairment (VI) increases mortality risk are poorly understood. We estimated the direct and indirect effects of self-rated VI on risk of mortality through mental well-being and preventive care practice mechanisms. Methods. Using complete data from 12,987 adult participants of the 2000 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey with mortality linkage through 2006, we undertook structural equation modeling using two latent variables representing mental well-being and poor preventive care to examine multiple effect pathways of self-rated VI on all-cause mortality. Generalized linear structural equation modeling was used to simultaneously estimate pathways including the latent variables and Cox regression model, with adjustment for controls and the complex sample survey design. Results. VI increased the risk of mortality directly after adjusting for mental well-being and other covariates (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25 [95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.55]). Poor preventive care practices were unrelated to VI and to mortality. Mental well-being decreased mortality risk (HR = 0.68 [0.64, 0.74], P < 0.001). VI adversely affected mental well-being (β = −0.54 [−0.65, −0.43]; P < 0.001). VI also increased mortality risk indirectly through mental well-being (HR = 1.23 [1.16, 1.30]). The total effect of VI on mortality including its influence through mental well-being was HR 1.53 [1.24, 1.90]. Similar but slightly stronger patterns of association were found when examining cardiovascular disease-related mortality, but not cancer-related mortality. Conclusions. VI increases the risk of mortality directly and indirectly through its adverse impact on mental well-being. Prevention of disabling ocular conditions remains a public health priority along with more aggressive diagnosis and treatment of depression and other mental health conditions in those living with VI. PMID:22427599

  7. Mortality among adults: gender and socioeconomic differences in a Brazilian city

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Population groups living in deprived areas are more exposed to several risk factors for diseases and injuries and die prematurely when compared with their better-off counterparts. The strength and patterning of the relationships between socioeconomic status and mortality differ depending on age, gender, and diseases or injuries. The objective of this study was to identify the magnitude of social differences in mortality among adult residents in a city of one million people in Southeastern Brazil in 2004-2008. Methods Forty-nine health care unit areas were classified into three homogeneous strata using 2000 Census small-area socioeconomic indicators. Mortality rates by age group, sex, and cause of death were calculated for each socioeconomic stratum. Mortality rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for the low and middle socioeconomic strata compared with the high stratum. Results In general, age-specific mortality rates showed a social gradient of increasing risks of death with decreasing socioeconomic status. The highest mortality rate ratios between low and high strata were observed in the 30-39 age group for males (RR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.59-1.89), and females (RR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.65-2.15). Concerning specific diseases and injuries, the greatest inequalities between low and high strata were found for homicides (RR = 2.44, 95% CI 2.27-2.61) and traffic accidents (RR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.45-1.83) among males. For women, the highest inequalities between the low and high strata were for chronic respiratory diseases (RR = 2.19, 95% CI 1.94-2.45) and acute myocardial infarction (RR = 1.93, 95% CI 1.79-2.07). Only breast cancer showed a reversed social gradient (RR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.48-0.92). Inequalities in circulatory and respiratory diseases mortality were greater among females than among males. Conclusions Substandard living conditions are related to unhealthy behaviors, as well as difficulties in accessing health care. Therefore, the

  8. Leisure Time Spent Sitting in Relation to Total Mortality in a Prospective Cohort of US Adults

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Alpa V.; Bernstein, Leslie; Deka, Anusila; Feigelson, Heather Spencer; Campbell, Peter T.; Gapstur, Susan M.; Colditz, Graham A.; Thun, Michael J.

    2010-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is attributed in part to reduced physical activity. Evidence supports that reducing time spent sitting, regardless of activity, may improve the metabolic consequences of obesity. Analyses were conducted in a large prospective study of US adults enrolled by the American Cancer Society to examine leisure time spent sitting and physical activity in relation to mortality. Time spent sitting and physical activity were queried by questionnaire on 53,440 men and 69,776 women who were disease free at enrollment. The authors identified 11,307 deaths in men and 7,923 deaths in women during the 14-year follow-up. After adjustment for smoking, body mass index, and other factors, time spent sitting (≥6 vs. <3 hours/day) was associated with mortality in both women (relative risk = 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25, 1.44) and men (relative risk = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.24). Relative risks for sitting (≥6 hours/day) and physical activity (<24.5 metabolic equivalent (MET)-hours/week) combined were 1.94 (95% CI: 1.70, 2.20) for women and 1.48 (95% CI: 1.33, 1.65) for men, compared with those with the least time sitting and most activity. Associations were strongest for cardiovascular disease mortality. The time spent sitting was independently associated with total mortality, regardless of physical activity level. Public health messages should include both being physically active and reducing time spent sitting. PMID:20650954

  9. Social Relationships and Mortality Risk: A Meta-analytic Review

    PubMed Central

    Layton, J. Bradley

    2010-01-01

    Background The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. Objectives This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data Extraction Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Results Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (p<0.001); the association was strongest for complex measures of social integration (OR = 1.91; 95% CI 1.63 to 2.23) and lowest for binary indicators of residential status (living alone versus with others) (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.44). Conclusions The influence of social relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20668659

  10. Declines in Coronary Heart Disease Incidence and Mortality among Middle-Aged Adults with and without Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Carson, April P.; Tanner, Rikki M.; Yun, Huifeng; Glasser, Stephen P.; Woolley, J. Michael; Thacker, Evan L.; Levitan, Emily B.; Farkouh, Michael E.; Rosenson, Robert S.; Brown, Todd M.; Howard, George; Safford, Monika M.; Muntner, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To investigate secular changes in CHD incidence and mortality among adults with and without diabetes and determine the effect of increased lipid-lowering medication use and reductions in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels on these changes. Methods We analyzed data on participants aged 45–64 years from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study in 1987–1996 (early time period) and the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study in 2003–2009 (late time period). Hazard ratios (HR) for the association of diabetes and time period with incident CHD and CHD mortality were obtained after adjustment for socio-demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, lipid-lowering medication use, and LDL-C. Results After multivariable adjustment, diabetes was associated with an increased CHD risk during the early (HR=1.99,95% CI=1.59,2.49) and late (HR=2.39,95% CI=1.69,3.35) time periods. CHD incidence and mortality declined between the early and late time periods for individuals with and without diabetes. Increased use of lipid-lowering medication and lower LDL-C explained 33.6% and 27.2% of the decline in CHD incidence and CHD mortality, respectively, for those with diabetes. Conclusions Although rates have declined, diabetes remains associated with an increased risk of CHD incidence and mortality, highlighting the need for continuing diabetes prevention and cardiovascular risk factor management. PMID:24970491

  11. PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR APPROXIMATING RELATIVE RISK BY THE STANDARDIZED MORTALITY RATIO

    EPA Science Inventory

    The standardized mortality ratio is a widely used and often criticized summary statistic for studies of occupational mortality. In the paper the authors discuss practical conditions under which relative risk can reasonably be approximated by the standardized mortality ratio. When...

  12. Stature and frailty during the Black Death: the effect of stature on risks of epidemic mortality in London, A.D. 1348–1350

    PubMed Central

    DeWitte, Sharon N.; Hughes-Morey, Gail

    2013-01-01

    Recent research has shown that preexisting health condition affected an individual’s risk of dying during the 14th-century Black Death. However, a previous study of the effect of adult stature on risk of mortality during the epidemic failed to find a relationship between the two; this result is perhaps surprising given the well-documented inverse association between stature and mortality in human populations. We suggest that the previous study used an analytical approach that was more complex than was necessary for an assessment of the effect of adult stature on risk of mortality. This study presents a reanalysis of data on adult stature and age-at-death during the Black Death in London, 1348–1350 AD. The results indicate that short stature increased risks of mortality during the medieval epidemic, consistent with previous work that revealed a negative effect of poor health on risk of mortality during the Black Death. However, the results from a normal, non-epidemic mortality comparison sample do not show an association between stature and risks of mortality among adults under conditions of normal mortality. Fisher’s exact tests, used to determine whether individuals who were growing during the Great Famine of 1315–1322 were more likely to be of short stature than those who did not endure the famine, revealed no differences between the two groups, suggesting that the famine was not a source of variation in stature among those who died during the Black Death. PMID:24363485

  13. Nutrition deficiency increases the risk of stomach cancer mortality

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The purpose of the study is to determine whether exposure to malnutrition during early life is associated with increased risk of stomach cancer in later life. Methods The design protocol included analyzing the trend of gastric cancer mortality and nutrition and evaluating the association between nutrient deficiency in early life and the risk of gastric cancer by hierarchical age–period–birth cohort (APC) analysis using general log-linear Poisson models and to compare the difference between birth cohorts who were exposed to the 1959–1961 Chinese famine and those who were not exposed to the famine. Data on stomach cancer mortality from 1970 to 2009 and the dietary patterns from 1955 to 1985 which included the 1959–1961 Chinese famine period in the Zhaoyuan County population were obtained. The nutrition information was collected 15 years prior to the mortality data as based on the latest reference of disease incubation. Results APC analysis revealed that severe nutrition deficiency during early life may increase the risk of stomach cancer. Compared with the 1960–1964 birth cohort, the risk for stomach cancer in all birth cohorts from 1900 to 1959 significantly increased; compared with the 1970–1974 cohort, the risk for stomach cancer in the 1975–1979 cohort significantly increased, whereas the others had a steadily decreased risk; compared with 85–89 age group in the 2005–2009 death survey, the ORs decreased with younger age and reached significant levels for the 50–54 age group after adjusting the confounding factors. The 1930 to 1964 group (exposed to famine) had a higher mortality rate than the 1965 to 1999 group (not exposed to famine). For males, the relative risk (RR) was 2.39 and the 95% confidence interval (CI) was 1.51 to 3.77. For females, RR was 1.64 and 95% CI was 1.02 to 2.62. Conclusion The results of the present study suggested that prolonged malnutrition during early life may increase the risk of stomach cancer

  14. The Moderating Role of Executive Functioning in Older Adults' Responses to a Reminder of Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Maxfield, Molly; Pyszczynski, Tom; Greenberg, Jeff; Pepin, Renee; Davis, Hasker P.

    2011-01-01

    In previous research, older adults responded to mortality salience (MS) with increased tolerance, whereas younger persons responded with increased punitiveness. One possible explanation for this is that many older adults adapt to challenges of later life, such as the prospect of mortality, by becoming more flexible. Recent studies suggest that positively-oriented adaptation is more likely for older adults with high levels of executive functioning. We thus hypothesized that the better an older adult's executive functioning, the more likely MS would result in increased tolerance. Older and younger adults were randomly assigned to MS or control conditions, and then evaluated moral transgressors. As in previous research, younger adults were more punitive following reminders of mortality; executive functioning did not affect their responses. Among older adults, high functioning individuals responded to MS with increased tolerance rather than intolerance, whereas those low in functioning became more punitive. PMID:21728445

  15. Coal use, stove improvement, and adult pneumonia mortality in Xuanwei, China: a retrospective cohort study

    SciTech Connect

    Shen, M.; Chapman, R.S.; Vermeulen, R.; Tian, L.W.; Zheng, T.Z.; Chen, B.E.; Engels, E.A.; He, X.Z.; Blair, A.; Lan, Q.

    2009-02-15

    In Xuanwei County, China, unvented indoor coal burning is strongly associated with increased risk of lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. However, the impact of coal burning and stove improvement on risk of pneumonia is not clear. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among all farmers born 1917 through 1951 and living in Xuanwei as of 1 January 1976. The analysis included a total of 42,422 cohort members. Follow-up identified all deaths in the cohort from 1976 through 1996. Ages at entry into and at exit from follow-up ranged from 24 to 59 years and from 25 to 80 years, respectively. The record search detected 225 deaths from pneumonia, and 32,332 (76%) were alive as of 31 December 1996. We constructed multivariable Cox models (time variable = age) to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Use of coal, especially smokeless coal, was positively associated with pneumonia mortality. Annual tonnage and lifetime duration of smoky and smokeless coal use were positively associated with pneumonia mortality. Stove improvement was associated with a 50% reduction in pneumonia deaths (smoky coal users: HR, 0.521; 95% CI, 0.340-0.798; smokeless coal users: HR, 0.449; 95% CI, 0.215-0.937). Our analysis is the first to suggest that indoor air pollution from unvented coal burning is an important risk factor for pneumonia death in adults and that improving ventilation by installing a chimney is an effective measure to decrease it.

  16. Plasma IL-6 and IL-10 Concentrations Predict AKI and Long-Term Mortality in Adults after Cardiac Surgery.

    PubMed

    Zhang, William R; Garg, Amit X; Coca, Steven G; Devereaux, Philip J; Eikelboom, John; Kavsak, Peter; McArthur, Eric; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Shortt, Colleen; Shlipak, Michael; Whitlock, Richard; Parikh, Chirag R

    2015-12-01

    Inflammation has an integral role in the pathophysiology of AKI. We investigated the associations of two biomarkers of inflammation, plasma IL-6 and IL-10, with AKI and mortality in adults undergoing cardiac surgery. Patients were enrolled at six academic centers (n = 960). AKI was defined as a ≥ 50% or ≥ 0.3-mg/dl increase in serum creatinine from baseline. Pre- and postoperative IL-6 and IL-10 concentrations were categorized into tertiles and evaluated for associations with outcomes of in-hospital AKI or postdischarge all-cause mortality at a median of 3 years after surgery. Preoperative concentrations of IL-6 and IL-10 were not significantly associated with AKI or mortality. Elevated first postoperative IL-6 concentration was significantly associated with higher risk of AKI, and the risk increased in a dose-dependent manner (second tertile adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.61 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.10 to 2.36]; third tertile adjusted OR, 2.13 [95% CI, 1.45 to 3.13]). First postoperative IL-6 concentration was not associated with risk of mortality; however, the second tertile of peak IL-6 concentration was significantly associated with lower risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.57 to 0.99]). Elevated first postoperative IL-10 concentration was significantly associated with higher risk of AKI (adjusted OR, 1.57 [95% CI, 1.04 to 2.38]) and lower risk of mortality (adjusted HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.56 to 0.93]). There was a significant interaction between the concentration of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, an established AKI biomarker, and the association of IL-10 concentration with mortality (P = 0.01). These findings suggest plasma IL-6 and IL-10 may serve as biomarkers for perioperative outcomes. PMID:25855775

  17. Inequality in mortality decreased among the young while increasing for older adults, 1990-2010.

    PubMed

    Currie, J; Schwandt, H

    2016-05-01

    Many recent studies point to increasing inequality in mortality in the United States over the past 20 years. These studies often use mortality rates in middle and old age. We used poverty level rankings of groups of U.S. counties as a basis for analyzing inequality in mortality for all age groups in 1990, 2000, and 2010. Consistent with previous studies, we found increasing inequality in mortality at older ages. For children and young adults below age 20, however, we found strong mortality improvements that were most pronounced in poorer counties, implying a strong decrease in mortality inequality. These younger cohorts will form the future adult U.S. population, so this research suggests that inequality in old-age mortality is likely to decline. PMID:27103667

  18. Mortality Risk of Hypnotics: Strengths and Limits of Evidence.

    PubMed

    Kripke, Daniel F

    2016-02-01

    Sleeping pills, more formally defined as hypnotics, are sedatives used to induce and maintain sleep. In a review of publications for the past 30 years, descriptive epidemiologic studies were identified that examined the mortality risk of hypnotics and related sedative-anxiolytics. Of the 34 studies estimating risk ratios, odds ratios, or hazard ratios, excess mortality associated with hypnotics was significant (p < 0.05) in 24 studies including all 14 of the largest, contrasted with no studies at all suggesting that hypnotics ever prolong life. The studies had many limitations: possibly tending to overestimate risk, such as possible confounding by indication with other risk factors; confusing hypnotics with drugs having other indications; possible genetic confounders; and too much heterogeneity of studies for meta-analyses. There were balancing limitations possibly tending towards underestimates of risk such as limited power, excessive follow-up intervals with possible follow-up mixing of participants taking hypnotics with controls, missing dosage data for most studies, and over-adjustment of confounders. Epidemiologic association in itself is not adequate proof of causality, but there is proof that hypnotics cause death in overdoses; there is thorough understanding of how hypnotics euthanize animals and execute humans; and there is proof that hypnotics cause potentially lethal morbidities such as depression, infection, poor driving, suppressed respiration, and possibly cancer. Combining these proofs with consistent evidence of association, the great weight of evidence is that hypnotics cause huge risks of decreasing a patient's duration of survival. PMID:26563222

  19. Inadequate Exercise as a Risk Factor for Sepsis Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Paul T.

    2013-01-01

    Objective Test whether inadequate exercise is related to sepsis mortality. Research Design and Methods Mortality surveillance of an epidemiological cohort of 155,484 National Walkers' and Runners' Health Study participants residing in the United States. Deaths were monitored for an average of 11.6-years using the National Death index through December 31, 2008. Cox proportional hazard analyses were used to compare sepsis mortality (ICD-10 A40-41) to inadequate exercise (<1.07 METh/d run or walked) as measured on their baseline questionnaires. Deaths occurring within one year of the baseline survey were excluded. Results Sepsis was the underlying cause in 54 deaths (sepsisunderlying) and a contributing cause in 184 deaths (sepsiscontributing), or 238 total sepsis-related deaths (sepsistotal). Inadequate exercise was associated with 2.24-fold increased risk for sepsisunderlying (95%CI: 1.21 to 4.07-fold, P = 0.01), 2.11-fold increased risk for sepsiscontributing (95%CI: 1.51- to 2.92-fold, P<10−4), and 2.13-fold increased risk for sepsistotal (95%CI: 1.59- to 2.84-fold, P<10−6) when adjusted for age, sex, race, and cohort. The risk increase did not differ significantly between runners and walkers, by sex, or by age. Sepsistotal risk was greater in diabetics (P = 10−5), cancer survivors (P = 0.0001), and heart attack survivors (P = 0.003) and increased with waist circumference (P = 0.0004). The sepsistotal risk associated with inadequate exercise persisted when further adjusted for diabetes, prior cancer, prior heart attack and waist circumference, and when excluding deaths with cancer, or cardiovascular, respiratory, or genitourinary disease as the underlying cause. Inadequate exercise also increased sepsistotal risk in 2163 baseline diabetics (4.78-fold, 95%CI: 2.1- to 13.8-fold, P = 0.0001) when adjusted, which was significantly greater (P = 0.03) than the adjusted risk increase in non-diabetics (1.80-fold, 95%CI: 1.30- to 2.46-fold

  20. Associations between urinary kidney injury biomarkers and cardiovascular mortality risk in elderly men with diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Tonkonogi, Aleksandra; Carlsson, Axel C.; Helmersson-Karlqvist, Johanna; Larsson, Anders; Ärnlöv, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Aim Three urinary biomarkers, kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), and cystatin C, have been suggested as clinically relevant highly specific biomarkers of acute kidney tubular damage. Yet, the utility of these biomarkers in the prognostication of diabetic nephropathy has been less studied. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between these urinary biomarkers and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes. Methods The study sample consisted of participants with diabetes in the community-based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (n = 91; mean age 77.8 years). During follow-up (median 8.3 years, interval 0.7–13.4 years), 33 participants died of cardiovascular causes. Results In a multivariable Cox regression model adjusting for age, glomerular filtration rate, and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, higher urinary KIM-1/creatinine was associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular mortality (HR per SD increase 1.51, 95% confidence intervals 1.03–2.24, P = 0.03). Neither urinary NGAL/creatinine nor urinary cystatin C/creatinine were independently associated with an increased cardiovascular mortality risk. Conclusion In elderly men with diabetes, higher urinary KIM-1/creatinine was associated with an increased long-term risk of cardiovascular mortality independently of established markers of diabetic nephropathy. Our data provide support for kidney tubular damage as an important aspect of diabetic nephropathy that merits further investigation. PMID:27321055

  1. Risk factors of morbidity and mortality following hip fracture surgery

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Seung Dong; Park, Sang Jin; Lee, Deok Hee

    2013-01-01

    Background The preoperative coexisting chronic systemic illness, delay in surgery, gender, and age were considered as risk factors for the complications after hip fracture surgery. The wider range of surgical delay and immobility-related pulmonary morbidity may affect postoperative complications and mortality. This study examined the risk factors for morbidity and mortality following the hip fracture surgery. Methods The patient data was collected retrospectively. The consecutive 506 patients with hip fracture surgery, aged 60 years or older, were included. The patients' age, gender, preexisting diseases, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, delay in surgical repair, duration of surgical procedure, and methods of anesthesia were noted. The thirty-day postoperative complications were reviewed, and cardiac complications, pulmonary complications, delirium, and death were recorded. The data was analyzed for postoperative complications and risk factors. Results Atelectasis was associated with postoperative pulmonary complications. Male gender and age ≥ 80 years were associated with an increased incidence of postoperative delirium. ASA classification 3 was associated with death. A delay in surgery was not associated with any complications. Preexisting diseases and methods of anesthesia did not affect mortality and postoperative complications. Conclusions The results suggest that a delay in surgery did not affect the postoperative complications and morbidity. PMID:23814650

  2. Low serum testosterone increases mortality risk among male dialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Carrero, Juan Jesús; Qureshi, Abdul Rashid; Parini, Paolo; Arver, Stefan; Lindholm, Bengt; Bárány, Peter; Heimbürger, Olof; Stenvinkel, Peter

    2009-03-01

    Men treated with hemodialysis (HD) have a very poor prognosis and an elevated risk of premature cardiovascular disease (CVD). In the general population, associations between low testosterone concentrations and cardiovascular risk have been suggested. We performed a prospective observational study involving a well characterized cohort of 126 men treated with HD to examine the relationship between testosterone concentration and subsequent mortality during a mean follow-up period of 41 mo. Independent of age, serum creatinine, and sexual hormone binding globulin (SHBG), testosterone levels inversely and strongly associated with the inflammatory markers IL-6 and CRP. Patients with a clinical history of CVD had significantly lower testosterone levels. During follow up, 65 deaths occurred, 58% of which were a result of CVD. Men with testosterone values in the lowest tertile had increased all-cause and CVD mortality (crude hazard ratios [HRs] 2.03 [95% CI 1.24 to 3.31] and 3.19 [1.49 to 6.83], respectively), which persisted after adjustment for age, SHBG, previous CVD, diabetes, ACEi/ARB treatment, albumin, and inflammatory markers, but was lost after adjustment for creatinine. In summary, among men treated with HD, testosterone concentrations inversely correlate with all-cause and CVD-related mortality, as well as with markers of inflammation. Hypogonadism may be an additional treatable risk factor for patients with chronic kidney disease. PMID:19144759

  3. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2009. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Surveillance Summaries. Volume 59, Number SS-5

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eaton, Danice K.; Kann, Laura; Kinchen, Steve; Shanklin, Shari; Ross, James; Hawkins, Joseph; Harris, William A.; Lowry, Richard; McManus, Tim; Chyen, David; Lim, Connie; Whittle, Lisa; Brener, Nancy D.; Wechsler, Howell

    2010-01-01

    Problem: Priority health-risk behaviors, which are behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among youth and adults, often are established during childhood and adolescence, extend into adulthood, and are interrelated and preventable. Reporting Period Covered: September 2008-December 2009. Description of the…

  4. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2005. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Surveillance Summaries. Volume 55, Number SS-5

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eaton, Danice K.; Kann, Laura; Kinchen, Steve; Ross, James; Hawkins, Joseph; Harris, William A.; Lowry, Richard; McManus, Tim; Chyen, David; Shanklin, Shari; Lim, Connie; Grunbaum, Jo Anne; Wechsler, Howell

    2006-01-01

    Problem: Priority health-risk behaviors, which contribute to the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among youth and adults, often are established during childhood and adolescence, extend into adulthood, are interrelated, and are preventable. Reporting Period Covered: October 2004-January 2006. Description of the System: The Youth Risk…

  5. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2007. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Surveillance Summaries. Volume 57, Number SS-4

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eaton, Danice K.; Kann, Laura; Kinchen, Steve; Shanklin, Shari; Ross, James; Hawkins, Joseph; Harris, William A.; Lowry, Richard; McManus, Tim; Chyen, David; Lim, Connie; Brener, Nancy D.; Wechsler, Howell

    2008-01-01

    Problem: Priority health-risk behaviors, which are behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among youth and adults, often are established during childhood and adolescence, extend into adulthood, are interrelated, and are preventable. Reporting Period Covered: January-December 2007. Description of the System: The…

  6. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2011. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Surveillance Summaries. Volume 61, Number 4

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eaton, Danice K.; Kann, Laura; Kinchen, Steve; Shanklin, Shari; Flint, Katherine H.; Hawkins, Joseph; Harris, William A.; Lowry, Richard; McManus, Tim; Chyen, David; Whittle, Lisa; Lim, Connie; Wechsler, Howell

    2012-01-01

    Problem: Priority health-risk behaviors, which are behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among youth and adults, often are established during childhood and adolescence, extend into adulthood, and are interrelated and preventable. Reporting Period Covered: September 2010-December 2011. Description of the…

  7. Past and present: conditions of life during childhood and mortality of older adults

    PubMed Central

    Gomes, Marília Miranda Forte; Turra, Cássio Maldonado; Fígoli, Moema Gonçalves Bueno; Duarte, Yeda A O; Lebrão, Maria Lúcia

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze whether socioeconomic and health conditions during childhood are associated with mortality during old age. METHODS Data were extracted from the SABE Study (Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento – Health, Welfare and Aging), which were performed in 2000 and 2006. The sample consisted of 2004 (1,355 living and 649 dead) older adults. The statistical analysis was performed based on Poisson regression models, taking into account the time variation of risk observed. Older adults’ demographic characteristics and life conditions were evaluated, as were the socioeconomic and lifestyle conditions they acquired during their adult life. RESULTS Only the area of residence during childhood (rural or urban) remained as a factor associated with mortality at advanced ages. However, this association lost significance when the variables acquired during adulthood were added to the model. CONCLUSIONS Despite the information regarding the conditions during childhood being limited and perhaps not accurately measure the socioeconomic status and health in the first years of life, the findings of this study suggest that improving the environmental conditions of children and creating opportunities during early adulthood may contribute to greater survival rates for those of more advanced years. PMID:26786474

  8. Adolescent and Young Adult Mortality by Cause: Age, Gender, and Country, 1955 to 1994

    PubMed Central

    HEUVELINE, PATRICK; SLAP, GAIL B.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To compare mortality rates from motor vehicle accidents (MVA), homicide, and suicide across countries, age groups, and time. Methods The World Health Organization Mortality Database was used to construct age- and gender-specific rates in 26 countries for individuals aged 15 to 34 years during the period 1955 to 1994. The rates were adjusted for differences among countries in the age-and-gender distributions of their populations. Cause-specific rates were compared by country, 4-year age groups, 8-year time blocks, and male/female ratios. Results The proportion of deaths in 15–34-year-olds owing to MVA, homicide, and suicide increased from 26% to 43% over the 40-year study period. Mortality rates differ by country more than time block, peak at ages 15–29 years, and are higher in males than females. Compared to the United States, 24 countries had lower homicide rates and 23 had lower MVA-death rates. Conclusions Despite declining rates of death from other causes, the rates of adolescent and young adult death from MVA, homicide, and suicide remain high in countries throughout the world. The proportion of deaths attributable to these causes increased steadily during the latter half of the 20th century. Fatal risk behaviors begin to increase during adolescence but do not peak until age 30 years, suggesting that the target population for prevention extends well beyond the teenage years. PMID:11755798

  9. Risk assessment for adult butterflies exposed to the mosquito control pesticide naled

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bargar, Timothy A.

    2012-01-01

    A prospective risk assessment was conducted for adult butterflies potentially exposed to the mosquito control insecticide naled. Published acute mortality data, exposure data collected during field studies, and morphometric data (total surface area and fresh body weight) for adult butterflies were combined in a probabilistic estimate of the likelihood that adult butterfly exposure to naled following aerial applications would exceed levels associated with acute mortality. Adult butterfly exposure was estimated based on the product of (1) naled residues on samplers and (2) an exposure metric that normalized total surface area for adult butterflies to their fresh weight. The likelihood that the 10th percentile refined effect estimate for adult butterflies exposed to naled would be exceeded following aerial naled applications was 67 to 80%. The greatest risk would be for butterflies in the family Lycaenidae, and the lowest risk would be for those in the family Hesperidae, assuming equivalent sensitivity to naled. A range of potential guideline naled deposition levels is presented that, if not exceeded, would reduce the risk of adult butterfly mortality. The results for this risk assessment were compared with other risk estimates for butterflies, and the implications for adult butterflies in areas targeted by aerial naled applications are discussed.

  10. Risk assessment for adult butterflies exposed to the mosquito control pesticide naled.

    PubMed

    Bargar, Timothy A

    2012-04-01

    A prospective risk assessment was conducted for adult butterflies potentially exposed to the mosquito control insecticide naled. Published acute mortality data, exposure data collected during field studies, and morphometric data (total surface area and fresh body weight) for adult butterflies were combined in a probabilistic estimate of the likelihood that adult butterfly exposure to naled following aerial applications would exceed levels associated with acute mortality. Adult butterfly exposure was estimated based on the product of (1) naled residues on samplers and (2) an exposure metric that normalized total surface area for adult butterflies to their fresh weight. The likelihood that the 10th percentile refined effect estimate for adult butterflies exposed to naled would be exceeded following aerial naled applications was 67 to 80%. The greatest risk would be for butterflies in the family Lycaenidae, and the lowest risk would be for those in the family Hesperidae, assuming equivalent sensitivity to naled. A range of potential guideline naled deposition levels is presented that, if not exceeded, would reduce the risk of adult butterfly mortality. The results for this risk assessment were compared with other risk estimates for butterflies, and the implications for adult butterflies in areas targeted by aerial naled applications are discussed. PMID:22278732

  11. Mortality salience effects on the life expectancy estimates of older adults as a function of neuroticism.

    PubMed

    Maxfield, Molly; Solomon, Sheldon; Pyszczynski, Tom; Greenberg, Jeff

    2010-01-01

    Research has shown that reminders of mortality lead people to engage in defenses to minimize the anxiety such thoughts could arouse. In accord with this notion, younger adults reminded of mortality engage in behaviors aimed at denying vulnerability to death. However, little is known about the effects of mortality reminders on older adults. The present study examined the effect of reminders of death on older adults' subjective life expectancy. Mortality reminders did not significantly impact the life expectancy estimates of old-old adults. Reminders of death did however lead to shorter life expectancy estimates among young-old participants low in neuroticism but longer life expectancy estimates among young-old participants high in neuroticism, suggesting that this group was most defensive in response to reminders of death. PMID:21151516

  12. Measuring the value of mortality risk reductions in Turkey.

    PubMed

    Tekeşin, Cem; Ara, Shihomi

    2014-07-01

    The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30-39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey's compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150

  13. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    PubMed Central

    Tekeşin, Cem; Ara, Shihomi

    2014-01-01

    The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150

  14. Childhood abuse, parental warmth, and adult multisystem biological risk in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Judith E; Gruenewald, Tara L; Taylor, Shelley E; Janicki-Deverts, Denise; Matthews, Karen A; Seeman, Teresa E

    2013-10-15

    Childhood abuse increases adult risk for morbidity and mortality. Less clear is how this "toxic" stress becomes embedded to influence health decades later, and whether protective factors guard against these effects. Early biological embedding is hypothesized to occur through programming of the neural circuitry that influences physiological response patterns to subsequent stress, causing wear and tear across multiple regulatory systems. To examine this hypothesis, we related reports of childhood abuse to a comprehensive 18-biomarker measure of multisystem risk and also examined whether presence of a loving parental figure buffers against the impact of childhood abuse on adult risk. A total of 756 subjects (45.8% white, 42.7% male) participated in this ancillary substudy of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study. Childhood stress was determined by using the Risky Families Questionnaire, a well-validated retrospective self-report scale. Linear regression models adjusting for age, sex, race, parental education, and oral contraceptive use found a significant positive relationship between reports of childhood abuse and multisystem health risks [B (SE) = 0.68 (0.16); P < 0.001]. Inversely, higher amounts of reported parental warmth and affection during childhood was associated with lower multisystem health risks [B (SE) = -0.40 (0.14); P < 0.005]. A significant interaction of abuse and warmth (P < 0.05) was found, such that individuals reporting low levels of love and affection and high levels of abuse in childhood had the highest multisystem risk in adulthood. PMID:24062432

  15. Risk factors for mortality during antiretroviral therapy in older populations in resource-limited settings

    PubMed Central

    O'Brien, Daniel; Spelman, Tim; Greig, Jane; McMahon, James; Ssonko, Charles; Casas, Esther; Mesic, Anita; Du Cros, Philipp; Ford, Nathan

    2016-01-01

    Introduction An increasing proportion of adult patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings are aged >50 years. Older populations on ART appear to have heightened risk of death, but little is known about factors influencing mortality in this population. Methods We performed a retrospective observational multisite cohort study including all adult patients (≥15 years) initiating ART between 2003 and 2013 in programmes supported by Médecins Sans Frontières across 12 countries in Asia, Africa and Europe. Patients were stratified into two age groups, >50 years and 15 to 50 years. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to explore factors associated with mortality. Results The study included 41,088 patients: 2591 (6.3%) were aged >50 years and 38,497 (93.7%) were aged 15 to 50 years. The mortality rate was significantly higher in the age group >50 years [367 (14.2%) deaths; mortality rate 7.67 deaths per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval, CI: 6.93 to 8.50)] compared to the age group 15 to 50 years [3788 (9.8%) deaths; mortality rate 4.18 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI: 4.05 to 4.31)], p<0.0001. Higher CD4 levels at baseline were associated with significantly reduced mortality rates in the 15 to 50 age group but this association was not seen in the >50 age group. WHO Stage 4 conditions were more strongly associated with increased mortality rates in the 15 to 50 age group compared to populations >50 years. WHO Stage 3 conditions were associated with an increased mortality rate in the 15 to 50 age group but not in the >50 age group. Programme region did not affect mortality rates in the >50 age group; however being in an Asian programme was associated with a 36% reduced mortality rate in populations aged 15 to 50 years compared to being in an African programme. There was a higher overall incidence of Stage 3 WHO conditions in people >50 years (12.8/100 person-years) compared to those 15 to 50 years (8.1/100 person

  16. Cohabitation and U.S Adult Mortality: An Examination by Gender and Race

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Hui; Reczek, Corinne

    2012-01-01

    This study is the first to explore the relationship between cohabitation and U.S. adult mortality using a nationally representative sample. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey-Longitudinal Mortality Follow-up files 1997-2004 (N = 193,851), the authors found that divorced, widowed, and never-married White men had higher mortality…

  17. Cause-Specific Mortality and Death Certificate Reporting in Adults with Moderate to Profound Intellectual Disability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tyrer, F.; McGrother, C.

    2009-01-01

    Background: The study of premature deaths in people with intellectual disability (ID) has become the focus of recent policy initiatives in England. This is the first UK population-based study to explore cause-specific mortality in adults with ID compared with the general population. Methods: Cause-specific standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and…

  18. Caregiving Behavior Is Associated With Decreased Mortality Risk

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Stephanie L.; Smith, Dylan M.; Schulz, Richard; Kabeto, Mohammed U.; Ubel, Peter A.; Poulin, Michael; Yi, Jaehee; Kim, Catherine; Langa, Kenneth M.

    2010-01-01

    Traditional investigations of caregiving link it to increased caregiver morbidity and mortality, but do not disentangle the effects of providing care from those of being continuously exposed to an ailing loved one with serious health problems. We explored this possible confound in a national, longitudinal survey of elderly married individuals (N = 3,376). Results showed that spending at least 14 hr per week providing care to a spouse predicted decreased mortality for the caregiver, independently of behavioral and cognitive limitations of the care recipient (spouse), and of other demographic and health variables. These findings suggest that it may be premature to conclude that health risks for caregivers are due to providing active help. Indeed, under some circumstances, caregivers may actually benefit from providing care. PMID:19320860

  19. An International Comparison of Adolescent and Young Adult Mortality

    PubMed Central

    HEUVELINE, PATRICK

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyzes mortality rates for 3 of the main causes of deaths between the ages of 15 and 34 (motor vehicle injuries, homicide, and suicide) from 1950 to 1996, and across 26 countries. Average sex ratios and age patterns and the trends in age- and sex-standardized mortality rates are analyzed for each cause. Overall, youth violent mortality levels have been remarkably stable since the 1950s. As mortality due to other causes has receded, the contribution of these three causes has increased from 25 to 40 percent between the 1950s and the mid-1970s, and has remained above 40 percent since. Last, a principal component analysis is performed to summarize the variance in age-, sex-, and cause-specific rates over time and across countries. This summary representation of international differences displays regional clusters and emphasizes the “outlying” position of the United States among industrialized nations. PMID:24587489

  20. Recipient Age and Mortality Risk after Liver Transplantation: A Population-Based Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Hsiu-Pin; Tsai, Yung-Fong; Lin, Jr-Rung; Liu, Fu-Chao; Yu, Huang-Ping

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the present large population-based cohort study is to explore the risk factors of age-related mortality in liver transplant recipients in Taiwan. Basic information and data on medical comorbidities for 2938 patients who received liver transplants between July 1, 1998, and December 31, 2012, were extracted from the National Health Insurance Research Database on the basis of ICD-9-codes. Mortality risks were analyzed after adjusting for preoperative comorbidities and compared among age cohorts. All patients were followed up until the study endpoint or death. This study finally included 2588 adults and 350 children [2068 (70.4%) male and 870 (29.6%) female patients]. The median age at transplantation was 52 (interquartile range, 43–58) years. Recipients were categorized into the following age cohorts: <20 (n = 350, 11.9%), 20–39 (n = 254, 8.6%), 40–59 (n = 1860, 63.3%), and ≥60 (n = 474, 16.1%) years. In the total population, 428 deaths occurred after liver transplantation, and the median follow-up period was 2.85 years (interquartile range, 1.2–5.5 years). Dialysis patients showed the highest risk of mortality irrespective of age. Further, the risk of death increased with an increase in the age at transplantation. Older liver transplant recipients (≥60 years), especially dialysis patients, have a higher mortality rate, possibly because they have more medical comorbidities. Our findings should make clinicians aware of the need for better risk stratification among elderly liver transplantation candidates. PMID:27019189

  1. Status and health in Roman Dorset: the effect of status on risk of mortality in post-conquest populations.

    PubMed

    Redfern, Rebecca C; Dewitte, Sharon N

    2011-10-01

    The Roman conquest of Britain was previously shown to have negatively impacted health, particularly for children, older adults, and men. We build upon this previous research by investigating the effect that status had on risks of mortality within the Roman Britain populations of Dorset. This study incorporates a sample of 291 individuals excavated from several cemeteries in the county of Dorset dating between the first to early fifth centuries AD. To assess the effect of status on risks of mortality, burial type was used as a proxy for status and modeled as a covariate affecting the Siler and Gompertz-Makeham models of mortality. The results of these analyses indicate that high-status individuals, particularly children, had a lower mortality risk compared to lower-status groups; and for those buried in urban cemeteries, higher-status individuals of all age-groups had a lower mortality risk. As with our previous study (Redfern and DeWitte: Am J Phys Anthropol 144 (2011) 269-285), we found that male mortality risk was higher than females, which we consider to reflect underlying sex-differences in immunity and disease response. PMID:21826637

  2. Pesticide sales and adult male cancer mortality in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Chrisman, Juliana de Rezende; Koifman, Sérgio; de Novaes Sarcinelli, Paula; Moreira, Josino Costa; Koifman, Rosalina Jorge; Meyer, Armando

    2009-05-01

    In Brazil, where the use of pesticide grows rapidly, studies that evaluate the impact of pesticide exposure on cancer incidence and mortality are very scarce. In this study, we evaluated the degree of correlation between pesticide sales in 1985 in eleven Brazilian states and cancer mortality rates during 1996-1998. Information of all cancer deaths occurred in men 30-69 years old from 1996 to 1998 were collected from National Mortality System. Single and multiple linear regression coefficients were obtained to assess the relationship between per capita sales of pesticides in 1985, specific-site cancer mortality rates (prostate, soft tissue, larynx, leukemia, lip, esophagus, lung, pancreas, bladder, liver, testis, stomach, brain, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, and multiple myeloma) during 1996-1998, and several covariates. In addition, states were stratified into three groups according to tertiles of pesticides sales and cancer mortality rate ratios (MRR) were then calculated using first tertile as reference. Finally, a factor analysis was performed to reveal unapparent relationships between pesticide use and cancer mortality. Pesticide sales showed statistically significant correlation with the mortality rates for the cancers of prostate (r=0.69; p=0.019), soft tissue (r=0.71; p=0.015), leukemia (r=0.68; p=0.021), lip (r=0.73; p=0.010), esophagus (r=0.61; p=0.046), and pancreas (r=0.63; p=0.040). Moderate to weak correlations were observed for the cancers of larynx, lung, testis, bladder, liver, stomach, brain, and NHL and multiple myeloma. In addition, correlation between pesticide sales and specific-site cancer mortality rates was reinforced by multiple regression analysis. For all specific-sites, cancer mortality rates were significantly higher in the states of moderate (2nd tertile) and high (3rd tertile) pesticide sales, with MRR ranging from 1.11 to 5.61. Exploring hidden relationships between pesticide sales and cancer mortality in Brazil, through a factor analysis

  3. Using HIV-attributable mortality to assess the impact of antiretroviral therapy on adult mortality in rural Tanzania

    PubMed Central

    Kanjala, Chifundo; Michael, Denna; Todd, Jim; Slaymaker, Emma; Calvert, Clara; Isingo, Raphael; Wringe, Alison; Zaba, Basia; Urassa, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Background The Tanzanian national HIV care and treatment programme has provided free antiretroviral therapy (ART) to HIV-positive persons since 2004. ART has been available to participants of the Kisesa open cohort study since 2005, but data to 2007 showed a slow uptake of ART and a modest impact on mortality. Additional data from the 2010 HIV serological survey provide an opportunity to update the estimated impact of ART in this setting. Methods The Kisesa Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) has collected HIV serological data and demographic data, including verbal autopsy (VA) interviews since 1994. Serological data to the end of 2010 were used to make two estimates of HIV-attributable mortality, the first among HIV positives using the difference in mortality between HIV positives and HIV negatives, and the second in the population using the difference between the observed mortality rate in the whole population and the mortality rate among the HIV negatives. Four time periods (1994–1999, 2000–2004, 2005–2007, and 2008–2010) were used and HIV-attributable mortality estimates were analysed in detail for trends over time. A computer algorithm, InterVA-4, was applied to VA data to estimate the HIV-attributable mortality for the population, and this was compared to the estimates from the serological survey data. Results Among HIV-positive adults aged 45–59 years, high mortality rates were observed across all time periods in both males and females. In HIV-positive men, the HIV-attributable mortality was 91.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 84.6%–95.3%) in 2000–2004 and 86.3% (95% CI: 71.1%–93.3%) in 2008–2010, while among women, the HIV-attributable mortality was 87.8% (95% CI: 71.1%–94.3%) in 2000–2004 and 85.8% (95% CI: 59.6%–94.4%) in 2008–2010. In the whole population, using the serological data, the HIV-attributable mortality among men aged 30–44 years decreased from 57.2% (95% CI: 46.9%–65.3%) in 2000–2004 to 36.5% (95

  4. Risk factors for mortality in the Bangladesh cyclone of 1991.

    PubMed Central

    Bern, C.; Sniezek, J.; Mathbor, G. M.; Siddiqi, M. S.; Ronsmans, C.; Chowdhury, A. M.; Choudhury, A. E.; Islam, K.; Bennish, M.; Noji, E.

    1993-01-01

    Cyclones continue to pose a dangerous threat to the coastal populations of Bangladesh, despite improvements in disaster control procedures. After 138,000 persons died in the April 1991 cyclone, we carried out a rapid epidemiological assessment to determine factors associated with cyclone-related mortality and to identify prevention strategies. A nonrandom survey of 45 housing clusters comprising 1123 persons showed that mortality was greatest among under-10-year-olds (26%) and women older than 40 years (31%). Nearly 22% of persons who did not reach a concrete or brick structure died, whereas all persons who sought refuge in such structures survived. Future cyclone-associated mortality in Bangladesh could be prevented by more effective warnings leading to an earlier response, better access to designated cyclone shelters, and improved preparedness in high-risk communities. In particular, deaths among women and under-10-year-olds could be reduced by ensuring that they are given special attention by families, neighbours, local authorities, and especially those in charge of early warnings and emergency evacuation. PMID:8440041

  5. Risk Factors for Interstage Mortality Following the Norwood Procedure: Impact of Sociodemographic Factors.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Laura C; Burke, Brendan; Donohue, Janet E; Yu, Sunkyung; Hirsch-Romano, Jennifer C; Ohye, Richard G; Goldberg, Caren S

    2016-01-01

    Interstage mortality remains significant for patients undergoing staged palliation for hypoplastic left heart syndrome and other related single right ventricle malformations (HLV). The purpose of this study was to identify factors related to demographics, socioeconomic position, and perioperative course associated with post-Norwood hospital discharge, pre-stage 2, interstage mortality (ISM). Medical record review was conducted for patients with HLV, born from 1/2000 to 7/2009 and discharged alive following the Norwood procedure. Sociodemographic and perioperative factors were reviewed. Patients were determined to have ISM if they died between Norwood procedure hospital discharge and stage 2 palliation. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were performed to identify risk factors associated with ISM. A total of 273 patients were included in the analysis; ISM occurred in 32 patients (12%). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that independent risk factors for interstage mortality included teen mothers [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 6.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9-22.5], single adult caregivers (AOR 4.1, 95% CI 1.2-14.4), postoperative dysrhythmia (AOR 2.7, 95% CI 1.1-6.4), and longer ICU stay (AOR 2.7, 95% CI 1.2-6.1). Anatomic and surgical course variables were not associated with ISM in multivariable analysis. Patients with HLV are at increased risk of ISM if born to a teen mother, if they lived in a home with only one adult caregiver, suffered a postoperative dysrhythmia, or experienced a prolonged ICU stay. These risk factors are identifiable, and thus these infants may be targeted for interventions to reduce ISM. PMID:26260093

  6. Individual Spatial Responses towards Roads: Implications for Mortality Risk

    PubMed Central

    Grilo, Clara; Sousa, Joana; Ascensão, Fernando; Matos, Hugo; Leitão, Inês; Pinheiro, Paula; Costa, Monica; Bernardo, João; Reto, Dyana; Lourenço, Rui; Santos-Reis, Margarida; Revilla, Eloy

    2012-01-01

    Background Understanding the ecological consequences of roads and developing ways to mitigate their negative effects has become an important goal for many conservation biologists. Most mitigation measures are based on road mortality and barrier effects data. However, studying fine-scale individual spatial responses in roaded landscapes may help develop more cohesive road planning strategies for wildlife conservation. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated how individuals respond in their spatial behavior toward a highway and its traffic intensity by radio-tracking two common species particularly vulnerable to road mortality (barn owl Tyto alba and stone marten Martes foina). We addressed the following questions: 1) how highways affected home-range location and size in the immediate vicinity of these structures, 2) which road-related features influenced habitat selection, 3) what was the role of different road-related features on movement properties, and 4) which characteristics were associated with crossing events and road-kills. The main findings were: 1) if there was available habitat, barn owls and stone martens may not avoid highways and may even include highways within their home-ranges; 2) both species avoided using areas near the highway when traffic was high, but tended to move toward the highway when streams were in close proximity and where verges offered suitable habitat; and 3) barn owls tended to cross above-grade highway sections while stone martens tended to avoid crossing at leveled highway sections. Conclusions Mortality may be the main road-mediated mechanism that affects barn owl and stone marten populations. Fine-scale movements strongly indicated that a decrease in road mortality risk can be realized by reducing sources of attraction, and by increasing road permeability through measures that promote safe crossings. PMID:22970143

  7. Mortality Attributable to Excess Body Mass Index in Iran: Implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment Methodology

    PubMed Central

    Djalalinia, Shirin; Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi; Peykari, Niloofar; Kasaeian, Amir; Sheidaei, Ali; Mansouri, Anita; Mohammadi, Younes; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Mehdipour, Parinaz; Larijani, Bagher; Farzadfar, Farshad

    2015-01-01

    Background: The prevalence of obesity continues to rise worldwide with alarming rates in most of the world countries. Our aim was to compare the mortality of fatal disease attributable to excess body mass index (BMI) in Iran in 2005 and 2011. Methods: Using standards implementation comparative risk assessment methodology, we estimated mortality attributable to excess BMI in Iranian adults of 25–65 years old, at the national and sub-national levels for 9 attributable outcomes including; ischemic heart diseases (IHDs), stroke, hypertensive heart diseases, diabetes mellitus (DM), colon cancer, cancer of the body of the uterus, breast cancer, kidney cancer, and pancreatic cancer. Results: In 2011, in adults of 25–65 years old, at the national level, excess BMI was responsible for 39.5% of total deaths that were attributed to 9 BMI paired outcomes. From them, 55.0% were males. The highest mortality was attributed to IHD (55.7%) which was followed by stroke (19.3%), and DM (12.0%). Based on the population attributed fractions estimations of 2011, except for colon cancer, the remaining 6 common outcomes were higher for women than men. Conclusions: Despite the priority of the problem, there is currently no comprehensive program to prevention or control obesity in Iran. The present results show a growing need to comprehensive implications for national and sub-national health policies and interventional programs in Iran. PMID:26644906

  8. Coal Use, Stove Improvement, and Adult Pneumonia Mortality in Xuanwei, China: A Retrospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Min; Chapman, Robert S.; Vermeulen, Roel; Tian, Linwei; Zheng, Tongzhang; Chen, Bingshu E.; Engels, Eric A.; He, Xingzhou; Blair, Aaron; Lan, Qing

    2009-01-01

    Background In Xuanwei County, China, unvented indoor coal burning is strongly associated with increased risk of lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. However, the impact of coal burning and stove improvement on risk of pneumonia is not clear. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study among all farmers born 1917 through 1951 and living in Xuanwei as of 1 January 1976. The analysis included a total of 42,422 cohort members. Follow-up identified all deaths in the cohort from 1976 through 1996. Ages at entry into and at exit from follow-up ranged from 24 to 59 years and from 25 to 80 years, respectively. The record search detected 225 deaths from pneumonia, and 32,332 (76%) were alive as of 31 December 1996. We constructed multivariable Cox models (time variable = age) to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results Use of coal, especially smokeless coal, was positively associated with pneumonia mortality. Annual tonnage and lifetime duration of smoky and smokeless coal use were positively associated with pneumonia mortality. Stove improvement was associated with a 50% reduction in pneumonia deaths (smoky coal users: HR, 0.521; 95% CI, 0.340–0.798; smokeless coal users: HR, 0.449; 95% CI, 0.215–0.937). Conclusions Our analysis is the first to suggest that indoor air pollution from unvented coal burning is an important risk factor for pneumonia death in adults and that improving ventilation by installing a chimney is an effective measure to decrease it. PMID:19270797

  9. Risk factors for mortality in patients with septic pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Oh, Hong Geun; Cha, Seung-Ick; Shin, Kyung-Min; Lim, Jae-Kwang; Kim, Hyun Jung; Yoo, Seung-Soo; Lee, Jaehee; Lee, Shin-Yup; Kim, Chang-Ho; Park, Jae-Yong

    2016-08-01

    Data regarding prognostic factors for patients with septic pulmonary embolism (SPE) are lacking. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the clinical features of SPE and to ascertain the risk factors for mortality in patients with this condition. Patients with SPE, whose data were retrospectively collected from a tertiary referral center in Korea, were categorized by the presence or absence of in-hospital death into two groups: death and survival groups. The two groups were compared for clinical and radiologic parameters. SPE was community-acquired in most patients (78%). The most common focus of primary infection was that of bone, joint, or soft tissue (33%), followed by liver abscess (17%). The in-hospital mortality was 12%. Multivariate analysis showed that tachypnea (odds ratio [OR] 4.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-20.53, p = 0.038) and segmental or lobar consolidation on computed tomography (CT) scan (OR 10.79, 95% CI 2.51-46.43, p = 0.001) were independent predictors of in-hospital death in SPE patients. Taken together, the primary infectious foci of SPE in Korea are different from those reported in Western countries. Tachypnea and segmental or lobar consolidation on CT scan may be independent risk factors for in-hospital death in these patients. PMID:27346380

  10. Longitudinal study of dental caries, tooth mortality and interproximal bone loss in adults with intellectual disability.

    PubMed

    Gabre, P; Martinsson, T; Gahnberg, L

    2001-02-01

    The investigation focused on longitudinal changes of oral health in a group of adults with intellectual disability. A number of 124 individuals, aged 21-40 yr in 1990, were followed during 8.5 yr. The incidence and prevalence of caries, incidence of tooth mortality, and interproximal bone loss were registered from clinical examinations and bite-wing radiographs. The subjects visited the dental clinic for preventive dental care on average every third month during the period. The caries incidence was low, on average 0.51 new lesions per yr. Persons with mild intellectual disability experienced more caries than other subjects. During the 8.5 yr, the subjects had lost on average 1.82 teeth, with periodontitis dominating as the reason for tooth mortality. Individuals who cooperated poorly with dental treatment had lost the most teeth. The average annual bone loss in all subjects was 0.03 mm. Subjects with Down syndrome had a higher bone loss compared to those with other diagnoses of intellectual disability. Thus, the major part of the persons with intellectual disability showed satisfactory oral health. However, subjects with poor ability to cooperate with dental treatment and subjects with Down syndrome showed an increased risk for impaired oral health. PMID:11330930

  11. Correlates of the incidence of disability and mortality among older adult Brazilians with and without diabetes mellitus and stroke

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The combined effect of diabetes and stroke on disability and mortality remains largely unexplored in Brazil and Latin America. Previous studies have been based primarily on data from developed countries. This study addresses the empirical gap by evaluating the combined impact of diabetes and stroke on disability and mortality in Brazil. Methods The sample was drawn from two waves of the Survey on Health and Well-being of the Elderly, which followed 2,143 older adults in São Paulo, Brazil, from 2000 to 2006. Disability was assessed via measures of activities of daily living (ADL) limitations, severe ADL limitations, and receiving assistance to perform these activities. Logistic and multinomial regression models controlling for sociodemographic and health conditions were used to address the influence of diabetes and stroke on disability and mortality. Results By itself, the presence of diabetes did not increase the risk of disability or the need for assistance; however, diabetes was related to increased risks when assessed in combination with stroke. After controlling for demographic, social and health conditions, individuals who had experienced stroke but not diabetes were 3.4 times more likely to have ADL limitations than those with neither condition (95% CI 2.26-5.04). This elevated risk more than doubled for those suffering from a combination of diabetes and stroke (OR 7.34, 95% CI 3.73-14.46). Similar effects from the combination of diabetes and stroke were observed for severe ADL limitations (OR 19.75, 95% CI 9.81- 39.76) and receiving ADL assistance (OR 16.57, 95% CI 8.39-32.73). Over time, older adults who had experienced a stroke were at higher risk of remaining disabled (RRR 4.28, 95% CI 1.53,11.95) and of mortality (RRR 3.42, 95% CI 1.65,7.09). However, risks were even higher for those who had experienced both diabetes and stroke. Diabetes was associated with higher mortality. Conclusions Findings indicate that a combined history of stroke and

  12. Duration of depressive symptoms and mortality risk: the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA)

    PubMed Central

    White, James; Zaninotto, Paola; Walters, Kate; Kivimäki, Mika; Demakakos, Panayotes; Biddulph, Jane; Kumari, Meena; De Oliveira, Cesar; Gallacher, John; Batty, G. David

    2016-01-01

    Background The relationship between the duration of depressive symptoms and mortality remains poorly understood. Aims To examine whether the duration of depressive symptoms is associated with mortality risk. Method Data (n = 9560) came from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We assessed depressive symptom duration as the sum of examinations with an eight-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale score of ⩾3; we ascertained mortality from linking our data to a national register. Results Relative to those participants who never reported symptoms, the age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratios for elevated depressive symptoms over 1, 2, 3 and 4 examinations were 1.41 (95% CI 1.15–1.74), 1.80 (95% CI 1.44–2.26), 1.97 (95% CI 1.57–2.47) and 2.48 (95% CI 1.90–3.23), respectively (P for trend <0.001). This graded association can be explained largely by differences in physical activity, cognitive function, functional impairments and physical illness. Conclusions In this cohort of older adults, the duration of depressive symptoms was associated with mortality in a dose–response manner. PMID:26795425

  13. Resveratrol levels and all-cause mortality in older community-dwelling adults

    PubMed Central

    Semba, Richard D.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Bartali, Benedetta; Urpí-Sarda, Mireia; Zamora-Ros, Raul; Sun, Kai; Cherubini, Antonio; Bandinelli, Stefania; Andres-Lacueva, Cristina

    2015-01-01

    Importance Resveratrol, a polyphenol found in grapes, red wine, chocolate, and certain berries and roots, is considered to have antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anti-cancer effects in humans and is related to longevity in some lower organisms. Objective To determine whether resveratrol levels achieved with diet are associated with inflammation, cancer, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in humans. Design Prospective cohort study, the Invecchiare in Chianti (InCHIANTI) Study (“Aging in the Chianti Region”), 1998-2009. Setting Two villages in the Chianti area, Tuscany region of Italy. Participants Population-based sample of 783 community-dwelling men and women, ≥65 y Exposure 24-h urinary resveratrol metabolites Main outcomes and measures Primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were markers of inflammation (serum C-reactive protein [CRP], interleukin [IL]-6, IL-1β, and tumor necrosis factor [TNF]-α), and prevalent and incident cancer and cardiovascular disease Results Mean (95% Confidence Interval) log total urinary resveratrol metabolite concentrations were 7.08 (6.69, 7.48) nmol/g creatinine. During nine years of follow-up, 268 (34.3%) of the participants died. From the lowest to the highest quartile of baseline total urinary resveratrol metabolites, the proportion of participants who died from all causes was 34.4, 31.6, 33.5, and 37.4%, respectively (P = 0.67). Participants in the lowest quartile had a hazards ratio for mortality of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.54, 1.17) when compared with those in the highest quartile of total urinary resveratrol in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model that adjusted for potential confounders. Resveratrol levels were not significantly associated with serum CRP, IL-6, IL-1β, TNF-α, prevalent or incident cardiovascular disease or cancer. Conclusions: In older community-dwelling adults, total urinary resveratrol metabolite concentration was not associated with inflammatory

  14. Multivitamin-Mineral Use Is Associated with Reduced Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality among Women in the United States1234

    PubMed Central

    Bailey, Regan L; Fakhouri, Tala H; Park, Yikyung; Dwyer, Johanna T; Thomas, Paul R; Gahche, Jaime J; Miller, Paige E; Dodd, Kevin W; Sempos, Christopher T; Murray, David M

    2015-01-01

    Background: Multivitamin-mineral (MVM) products are the most commonly used supplements in the United States, followed by multivitamin (MV) products. Two randomized clinical trials (RCTs) did not show an effect of MVMs or MVs on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality; however, no clinical trial data are available for women with MVM supplement use and CVD mortality. Objective: The objective of this research was to examine the association between MVM and MV use and CVD-specific mortality among US adults without CVD. Methods: A nationally representative sample of adults from the restricted data NHANES III (1988–1994; n = 8678; age ≥40 y) were matched with mortality data reported by the National Death Index through 2011 to examine associations between MVM and MV use and CVD mortality by using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for multiple potential confounders. Results: We observed no significant association between CVD mortality and users of MVMs or MVs compared with nonusers; however, when users were classified by the reported length of time products were used, a significant association was found with MVM use of >3 y compared with nonusers (HR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.49, 0.85). This finding was largely driven by the significant association among women (HR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.37, 0.85) but not men (HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.44, 1.42). No significant association was observed for MV products and CVD mortality in fully adjusted models. Conclusions: In this nationally representative data set with detailed information on supplement use and CVD mortality data ∼20 y later, we found an association between MVM use of >3 y and reduced CVD mortality risk for women when models controlled for age, race, education, body mass index, alcohol, aspirin use, serum lipids, blood pressure, and blood glucose/glycated hemoglobin. Our results are consistent with the 1 available RCT in men, indicating no relation with MVM use and CVD mortality. PMID:25733474

  15. A population-based cohort study of late mortality in adult autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients in Australia.

    PubMed

    Ashton, Lesley J; Le Marsney, Renate E; Dodds, Anthony J; Nivison-Smith, Ian; Wilcox, Leonie; O'Brien, Tracey A; Vajdic, Claire M

    2014-07-01

    We assessed overall and cause-specific mortality and risk factors for late mortality in a nation-wide population-based cohort of 4547 adult cancer patients who survived 2 or more years after receiving an autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) in Australia between 1992 and 2005. Deaths after HSCT were identified from the Australasian Bone Marrow Transplant Recipient Registry and through data linkage with the National Death Index. Overall, the survival probability was 56% at 10 years from HSCT, ranging from 34% for patients with multiple myeloma to 90% for patients with testicular cancer. Mortality rates moved closer to rates observed in the age- and sex-matched Australian general population over time but remained significantly increased 11 or more years from HSCT (standardized mortality ratio, 5.9). Although the proportion of deaths from nonrelapse causes increased over time, relapse remained the most frequent cause of death for all diagnoses, 10 or more years after autologous HSCT. Our findings show that prevention of disease recurrence remains 1 of the greatest challenges for autologous HSCT recipients, while the increasing rates of nonrelapse deaths due to the emergence of second cancers, circulatory diseases, and respiratory diseases highlight the long-term health issues faced by adult survivors of autologous HSCT. PMID:24631736

  16. Variations in APOE genotype distribution in children from areas with different adult cardiovascular disease mortality in Spain.

    PubMed

    Garcés, C; Cantos, M; Benavente, M; Granizo, J J; Cano, B; Viturro, E; De Oya, M

    2004-08-01

    We investigate whether a varying distribution of the APOE genotype could help explain regional differences in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in Spain. APOE genotypes were examined by PCR in 1,274 randomly selected healthy children from four Spanish regions with different adult IHD mortality rates (northwest and central Spain with low rates and southeast and southern Spain with high rates). In the population as a whole the prevalence of the higher risk APOE*3/*4 genotype is 16.8% and the prevalence of the APOE*4 allele is 10.1%. In northwest Spain the frequencies of the APOE*3/*4 genotype (12.9%) and of the APOE*4 allele (8.3%) are smaller than in the other regions. The southeast region shows statistically higher frequencies of the APOE*3/*4 genotype (22.5%) and of the APOE*4 allele (13.2%) than in the other regions or in the group as a whole. We can conclude that Spain is not homogeneous in terms of APOE genotype distribution. Although the prevalence of the APOE*4 allele is generally low, there are areas with higher prevalence of the APOE*4 allele and a higher incidence of adult IHD mortality. This allows us to conclude that in Spain this genetic determinant can be associated with IHD mortality in relatively isolated populations. PMID:15754976

  17. Mortality and reproductive effects of ingested spinosad on adult bollworm

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Bollworm adults (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) upon emergence from their pupal cells actively seek and feed on plant exudates before they disperse and reproduce on suitable host plants. This nocturnal behavior of the bollworm may be exploited as a pest management strategy for suppression of the insect. Th...

  18. National and subnational mortality effects of metabolic risk factors and smoking in Iran: a comparative risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases has increased in Iran. Our aim was to estimate the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC), and high body mass index (BMI) on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and subnationally, using representative data and comparable methods. Methods We used data from the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey to estimate means and standard deviations for the metabolic risk factors, nationally and by region. Lung cancer mortality was used to measure cumulative exposure to smoking. We used data from the death registration system to estimate age-, sex-, and disease-specific numbers of deaths in 2005, adjusted for incompleteness using demographic methods. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain the effect of risk factors on disease-specific mortality. We estimated deaths and life expectancy loss attributable to risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework. Results In 2005, high SBP was responsible for 41,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 38,000, 44,000) deaths in men and 39,000 (36,000, 42,000) deaths in women in Iran. High FPG, BMI, and TC were responsible for about one-third to one-half of deaths attributable to SBP in men and/or women. Smoking was responsible for 9,000 deaths among men and 2,000 among women. If SBP were reduced to optimal levels, life expectancy at birth would increase by 3.2 years (2.6, 3.9) and 4.1 years (3.2, 4.9) in men and women, respectively; the life expectancy gains ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years for TC, BMI, and FPG. SBP was also responsible for the largest number of deaths in every region, with age-standardized attributable mortality ranging from 257 to 333 deaths per 100,000 adults in different regions. Discussion Management of blood pressure through diet, lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions should be a priority in Iran. Interventions for

  19. Factors predicting mortality in invasive pneumococcal disease in adults in Alberta.

    PubMed

    Marrie, Thomas James; Tyrrell, Gregory J; Garg, Sipi; Vanderkooi, Otto G

    2011-05-01

    To define the factors associated with 30-day mortality among adult patients with invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), we conducted a retrospective review of all cases of IPD in Alberta from 2000 to 2004. We hypothesized that multiple factors would be predictive of such mortality. We also examined the factors predictive of early (within 5 days of admission) mortality. We identified 1154 patients who met our inclusion criteria, 163 (14.1%) of whom died within 30 days. Over half (62.6%) of the deaths occurred within 5 days of admission. Ten factors were independently associated with increased 30-day mortality: 3 comorbidity factors-cancer within 5 years of diagnosis of IPD, diabetes, and cirrhosis; 4 complications-requirement for supplemental oxygen, mechanical ventilation, alteration of mental status, and cardiac arrest; 2 microorganism-related factors-infection with high- or infection with intermediate-mortality serotypes; and 1 treatment-related factor-treatment with a single antibiotic. Age 18-40 years and treatment with 2 antibiotics concurrently were associated with lower 30-day mortality. Comorbid illnesses were not contributory to early mortality (within 5 days of admission); instead, complications (alteration of mental status, requirement for supplemental oxygen, mechanical ventilation, and cardiac arrest) as well as infection with high-mortality serotypes and treatment with a single antibiotic were important. Age 18-40 years, infection with serotypes in the polysaccharide vaccine, and treatment with 2 or more than 2 antibiotics were associated with decreased early mortality. Early mortality accounted for 62.6% of the deaths. In conclusion, we found that mortality in IPD is multifactorial, the factors differ for 5- and 30-day mortality, and mortality is associated with host (age and complications), microorganism (pneumococcal serotypes), and therapeutic factors. Our data indicate that treatment with 2 or more antibiotics effective against Streptococcus

  20. Premature adult mortality in urban Zambia: a repeated population-based cross-sectional study

    PubMed Central

    Timæus, Ian M; Banda, Richard; Thankian, Kusanthan; Banda, Andrew; Lemba, Musonda; Stringer, Jeffrey S A; Chi, Benjamin H

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To measure the sex-specific and community-specific mortality rates for adults in Lusaka, Zambia, and to identify potential individual-level, household-level and community-level correlates of premature mortality. We conducted 12 survey rounds of a population-based cross-sectional study between 2004 and 2011, and collected data via a structured interview with a household head. Setting Households in Lusaka District, Zambia, 2004–2011. Participants 43 064 household heads (88% female) who enumerated 123 807 adult household members aged between 15 and 60 years. Primary outcome Premature adult mortality. Results The overall mortality rate was 16.2/1000 person-years for men and 12.3/1000 person-years for women. The conditional probability of dying between age 15 and 60 (45q15) was 0.626 for men and 0.537 for women. The top three causes of death for men and women were infectious in origin (ie, tuberculosis, HIV and malaria). We observed an over twofold variation of mortality rates between communities. The mortality rate was 1.98 times higher (95% CI 1.57 to 2.51) in households where a family member required nursing care, 1.44 times higher (95% CI 1.22 to 1.71) during the cool dry season, and 1.28 times higher (95% CI 1.06 to 1.54) in communities with low-cost housing. Conclusions To meet Zambia's development goals, further investigation is needed into the factors associated with adult mortality. Mortality can potentially be reduced through focus on high-need households and communities, and improved infectious disease prevention and treatment services. PMID:26940113

  1. Trends in Heart Disease Mortality among Mississippi Adults over Three Decades, 1980-2013

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Heart disease (HD) remains the leading cause of death among Mississippians; however, despite the importance of the condition, trends in HD mortality in Mississippi have not been adequately explored. This study examined trends in HD mortality among adults in Mississippi from 1980 through 2013 and further examined these trends by race and sex. We used data from Mississippi Vital Statistics (1980–2013) to calculate age-adjusted HD mortality rates for Mississippians age 25 or older. Cases were identified using underlying cause of death codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9: 390–398, 402, 404–429) and Tenth Revision (ICD-10), including I00-I09, I11, I13, and I20-I51. Joinpoint software was used to calculate the average annual percent change in HD mortality rates for the overall population and by race and sex. Overall, the age-adjusted HD mortality rate among Mississippi adults decreased by 36.5% between 1980 and 2013, with an average annual percent change of -1.60% (95% CI -2.00 to -1.30). This trend varied across subgroups: HD mortality rates experienced an average annual change of -1.34% (95% CI -1.98 to -0.69) for black adults; -1.60% (95% CI -1.74 to -1.46) for white adults; -1.30% (95% CI -1.50 to -1.10) for all women, and -1.90% (95% -2.20 to -1.50) for all men. From 1980 to 2013, there was a continuous decrease in HD mortality among adult Mississippians. However, the magnitude of this reduction differed by race and sex. PMID:27518895

  2. Adult Growth Hormone Deficiency – Benefits, Side Effects, and Risks of Growth Hormone Replacement

    PubMed Central

    Reed, Mary L.; Merriam, George R.; Kargi, Atil Y.

    2013-01-01

    Deficiency of growth hormone (GH) in adults results in a syndrome characterized by decreased muscle mass and exercise capacity, increased visceral fat, impaired quality of life, unfavorable alterations in lipid profile and markers of cardiovascular risk, decrease in bone mass and integrity, and increased mortality. When dosed appropriately, GH replacement therapy (GHRT) is well tolerated, with a low incidence of side effects, and improves most of the alterations observed in GH deficiency (GHD); beneficial effects on mortality, cardiovascular events, and fracture rates, however, remain to be conclusively demonstrated. The potential of GH to act as a mitogen has resulted in concern over the possibility of increased de novo tumors or recurrence of pre-existing malignancies in individuals treated with GH. Though studies of adults who received GHRT in childhood have produced conflicting reports in this regard, long-term surveillance of adult GHRT has not demonstrated increased cancer risk or mortality. PMID:23761782

  3. Health Human Capital in Sub-Saharan Africa: Conflicting Evidence from Infant Mortality Rates and Adult Heights

    PubMed Central

    Akachi, Yoko; Canning, David

    2011-01-01

    We investigate trends in cohort infant mortality rates and adult heights in 39 developing countries since 1960. In most regions of the world improved nutrition, and reduced childhood exposure to disease, have lead to improvements in both infant mortality and adult stature. In Sub-Saharan Africa, however, despite declining infant mortality rates, adult heights have not increased. We argue that in Sub-Saharan Africa the decline in infant mortality may have been due to interventions that prevent infant deaths rather than improved nutrition and childhood morbidity. Despite declining infant mortality, Sub-Saharan Africa may not be experiencing increases in health human capital. PMID:20634153

  4. Smoking trajectories, health, and mortality across the adult lifespan.

    PubMed

    Frosch, Zachary A K; Dierker, Lisa C; Rose, Jennifer S; Waldinger, Robert J

    2009-08-01

    This study extends research on the association between smoking behavior and chronic disease by following a cohort from the time of initiation of regular smoking patterns into old age and by examining the association of lifetime smoking trajectories with chronic disease and mortality. Participants consisted of 232 males selected from the Harvard classes of 1942-1944 and followed biennially through 2003. Five distinct smoking trajectories were identified based on the age at which participants quit daily smoking. Participants following smoking trajectories with later cessation had a higher likelihood of developing lung disease and lived shorter lives than those who quit smoking at an earlier age. This study confirms that the earlier a smoker quits, the greater the health benefits, and that these benefits are observed even decades after smoking cessation. Additionally, by showing different survival rates between trajectory groups 25 and 40 years after quitting, the results run counter to previous work that has found no difference in mortality between smokers and non-smokers 15 years after cessation. PMID:19428188

  5. Prenatal famine exposure and adult mortality from cancer, cardiovascular disease, and other causes through age 63 years.

    PubMed

    Ekamper, Peter; van Poppel, Frans; Stein, Aryeh D; Bijwaard, Govert E; Lumey, L H

    2015-02-15

    Nutritional conditions in early life may affect adult health, but prior studies of mortality have been limited to small samples. We evaluated the relationship between pre-/perinatal famine exposure during the Dutch Hunger Winter of 1944-1945 and mortality through age 63 years among 41,096 men born in 1944-1947 and examined at age 18 years for universal military service in the Netherlands. Of these men, 22,952 had been born around the time of the Dutch famine in 6 affected cities; the remainder served as unexposed controls. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for death from cancer, heart disease, other natural causes, and external causes. After 1,853,023 person-years of follow-up, we recorded 1,938 deaths from cancer, 1,040 from heart disease, 1,418 from other natural causes, and 523 from external causes. We found no increase in mortality from cancer or cardiovascular disease after prenatal famine exposure. However, there were increases in mortality from other natural causes (hazard ratio = 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.49) and external causes (hazard ratio = 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.09, 1.97) after famine exposure in the first trimester of gestation. Further follow-up of the cohort is needed to provide more accurate risk estimates of mortality from specific causes of death after nutritional disturbances during gestation and very early life. PMID:25632050

  6. Risk factors for mortality in patients with bloodstream infections during the pre-engraftment period after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Karpov, Igor; Milanovich, Natalia; Uss, Anatoly; Iskrov, Igor

    2016-01-01

    Background Bloodstream infections (BSI) remain a frequent complication during the pre-engraftment period after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), resulting in high mortality rates. This study evaluated risk factors for mortality in hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients with BSI in the pre-engraftment period. Methods This prospective case control study was performed at the Center of Hematology and Bone Marrow Transplantation in Minsk, Republic of Belarus. Data relating to patient age and gender, date and type of transplantation, conditioning chemotherapy regimen, microorganisms isolated from blood, and antibacterial therapy were prospectively collected from all hematopoietic stem cell recipients with microbiologically proven cases of BSI in the pre-engraftment period. The primary outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality after onset of febrile neutropenia. Results A total of 135 adult patients with microbiologically proven BSI after HSCT were studied, with 65.2% of cases caused by gram-negative microorganisms and 21.5% by non-fermenting bacteria. Inadequate empiric antibacterial therapy and isolation of carbapenem-resistant non-fermenting gram-negative bacteria (Acinetobacter baumannii and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were independently associated with increased all-cause 30-day mortality in these patients. Conclusion The risk factors for mortality in adult patients with BSI in the pre-engraftment period after HSCT were inadequacy of empirical antibacterial therapy and isolation of carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii or P. aeruginosa. PMID:27382554

  7. Geographical Detector-Based Risk Assessment of the Under-Five Mortality in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, China

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Zhu, Jun

    2011-01-01

    On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers. PMID:21738660

  8. Geographical detector-based risk assessment of the under-five mortality in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China.

    PubMed

    Hu, Yi; Wang, Jinfeng; Li, Xiaohong; Ren, Dan; Zhu, Jun

    2011-01-01

    On 12 May, 2008, a devastating earthquake registering 8.0 on the Richter scale occurred in Sichuan Province, China, taking tens of thousands of lives and destroying the homes of millions of people. Many of the deceased were children, particular children less than five years old who were more vulnerable to such a huge disaster than the adult. In order to obtain information specifically relevant to further researches and future preventive measures, potential risk factors associated with earthquake-related child mortality need to be identified. We used four geographical detectors (risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector, and interaction detector) based on spatial variation analysis of some potential factors to assess their effects on the under-five mortality. It was found that three factors are responsible for child mortality: earthquake intensity, collapsed house, and slope. The study, despite some limitations, has important implications for both researchers and policy makers. PMID:21738660

  9. Depression or anxiety and all-cause mortality in adults with atrial fibrillation - A cohort study in Swedish primary care.

    PubMed

    Wändell, Per; Carlsson, Axel C; Gasevic, Danijela; Wahlström, Lars; Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina

    2016-02-01

    Objective Our aim was to study depression and anxiety in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients as risk factors for all-cause mortality in a primary care setting. Methods The study population included adults (n = 12 283) of 45 years and older diagnosed with AF in 75 primary care centres in Sweden. The association between depression or anxiety and all-cause mortality was explored using Cox regression analysis, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Analyses were conducted in men and women, adjusted for age, educational level, marital status, neighborhood socio-economic status (SES), change of neighborhood status and anxiety or depression, respectively, and cardiovascular co-morbidities. As a secondary analysis, background factors and their association with depression or anxiety were explored. Results The risk of all-cause mortality was higher among men with depression compared to their counterparts without depression even after full adjustment (HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.08-1.53). For anxiety among men and anxiety or depression among women with AF, no associations were found. Cerebrovascular disease was more common among depressed AF patients. Conclusions Increased awareness of the higher mortality among men with AF and subsequent depression is called for. We suggest a tight follow-up and treatment of both ailments in clinical practice. PMID:26758363

  10. Global Mortality Risk Atlas: A comparison of two global disaster risk benchamrking projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosquera-Machado, S. D.

    2005-12-01

    Natural disasters occur all over the globe due to the impact of a variety of physical phenomena on a vulnerable population. Disaster risk management has become central in socioeconomic research and policy planning in order to ensure sustainable development. This paper provides an overview of two global natural disaster risk benchmarking initiatives: the Disaster Risk Index (DRI) developed by UNEP/GRID for UNDP's global report, Reducing Disaster Risk: a Challenge for Development; and the Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots, implemented by Columbia University and the World Bank. The objectives of this paper are three-fold: (1) to summarize current understanding of global mortality disaster risk with reference to geophysical and hydro-meteorological hazards; (2) to help stakeholders, government and the international community to understand how these two risk benchmarking reports and their results can be interpreted individually and in relation to one another; and (3) to produce a forward looking evaluation of the current state of the art, usefulness and complementarity of the methods and results of these analyses. The underlying philosophy of the two reviewed projects is based on the idea that disasters are caused not only by hazardous events, but rather by the interaction between them and infrastructure, economic activities and society. In this conception, these projects are reaffirming the intimate connection between natural disaster causality and the processes of human development. The approach of this paper is to use the two mortality risk indices produced by the projects and to transform it using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in such a way, that the obtained figures facilitate global, inter-country and inter-regional comparisons. The comparison is done in a hazard by hazard basis as well as for the multi-hazards mortality risk. This paper analyses the strengths and weaknesses of each project and highlights the potential synergies and contributions to

  11. Association between body mass index and mortality in a prospective cohort of Chinese adults.

    PubMed

    Sun, Hao; Ren, Xiaoxia; Chen, Zhichao; Li, Chunsheng; Chen, Shuohua; Wu, Shouling; Chen, Youren; Yang, Xinchun

    2016-08-01

    Obesity is associated with an increased risk of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and coronary artery disease; however, the relation between body mass index (BMI) and the risk of all-cause mortality is controversial. We prospectively examined the relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality in 123,384 Chinese men and women who participated in the Kailuan health examination study from 2006 to 2007 and 2008 to 2009. Cases included 6218 deaths (5770 men and 448 women) that occurred during a mean follow-up period of 7.39 years. Relative risk was adjusted for factors such as age, serum lipid levels (ie, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol), history of smoking and drinking, and physical activity, as well as a medical history of hypertension, diabetes, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Within the cohort, the lowest risk of all-cause mortality was seen among persons with a BMI of 24 to 28 kg/m in male, and the risk was elevated among persons with BMI levels lower or higher than that range. Moreover, all-cause mortality was greatest in the group with a BMI of <18.5 kg/m. In contrast, in female, a high BMI was associated with increased mortality, and a BMI of <18.5 kg/m was associated with the lowest risk. Further, a U-shaped association was seen between BMI and the risk of death from any cause among men and women, even after adjusting for confounding factors. In conclusion, underweight was associated with a substantially increased risk of all-cause mortality in males. The excess risk of all-cause mortality with a high BMI, however, was seen among females. PMID:27512844

  12. Association between body mass index and mortality in a prospective cohort of Chinese adults

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Hao; Ren, Xiaoxia; Chen, Zhichao; Li, Chunsheng; Chen, Shuohua; Wu, Shouling; Chen, Youren; Yang, Xinchun

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Obesity is associated with an increased risk of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and coronary artery disease; however, the relation between body mass index (BMI) and the risk of all-cause mortality is controversial. We prospectively examined the relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality in 123,384 Chinese men and women who participated in the Kailuan health examination study from 2006 to 2007 and 2008 to 2009. Cases included 6218 deaths (5770 men and 448 women) that occurred during a mean follow-up period of 7.39 years. Relative risk was adjusted for factors such as age, serum lipid levels (ie, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol), history of smoking and drinking, and physical activity, as well as a medical history of hypertension, diabetes, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Within the cohort, the lowest risk of all-cause mortality was seen among persons with a BMI of 24 to 28 kg/m2 in male, and the risk was elevated among persons with BMI levels lower or higher than that range. Moreover, all-cause mortality was greatest in the group with a BMI of <18.5 kg/m2. In contrast, in female, a high BMI was associated with increased mortality, and a BMI of <18.5 kg/m2 was associated with the lowest risk. Further, a U-shaped association was seen between BMI and the risk of death from any cause among men and women, even after adjusting for confounding factors. In conclusion, underweight was associated with a substantially increased risk of all-cause mortality in males. The excess risk of all-cause mortality with a high BMI, however, was seen among females. PMID:27512844

  13. Childhood abuse, parental warmth, and adult multisystem biological risk in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study

    PubMed Central

    Carroll, Judith E.; Gruenewald, Tara L.; Taylor, Shelley E.; Janicki-Deverts, Denise; Matthews, Karen A.; Seeman, Teresa E.

    2013-01-01

    Childhood abuse increases adult risk for morbidity and mortality. Less clear is how this “toxic” stress becomes embedded to influence health decades later, and whether protective factors guard against these effects. Early biological embedding is hypothesized to occur through programming of the neural circuitry that influences physiological response patterns to subsequent stress, causing wear and tear across multiple regulatory systems. To examine this hypothesis, we related reports of childhood abuse to a comprehensive 18-biomarker measure of multisystem risk and also examined whether presence of a loving parental figure buffers against the impact of childhood abuse on adult risk. A total of 756 subjects (45.8% white, 42.7% male) participated in this ancillary substudy of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study. Childhood stress was determined by using the Risky Families Questionnaire, a well-validated retrospective self-report scale. Linear regression models adjusting for age, sex, race, parental education, and oral contraceptive use found a significant positive relationship between reports of childhood abuse and multisystem health risks [B (SE) = 0.68 (0.16); P < 0.001]. Inversely, higher amounts of reported parental warmth and affection during childhood was associated with lower multisystem health risks [B (SE) = −0.40 (0.14); P < 0.005]. A significant interaction of abuse and warmth (P < 0.05) was found, such that individuals reporting low levels of love and affection and high levels of abuse in childhood had the highest multisystem risk in adulthood. PMID:24062432

  14. Fatty liver disease: Disparate predictive ability for cardiometabolic risk and all-cause mortality

    PubMed Central

    Onat, Altan; Can, Günay; Kaya, Ayşem; Akbaş, Tuğba; Özpamuk-Karadeniz, Fatma; Şimşek, Barış; Çakır, Hakan; Yüksel, Hüsniye

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To assess the association of a surrogate of fatty liver disease (FLD) with incident type-2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, and all-cause mortality. METHODS: In a prospective population-based study on 1822 middle-aged adults, stratified to gender, we used an algorithm of fatty liver index (FLI) to identify associations with outcomes. An index ≥ 60 indicated the presence of FLD. In Cox regression models, adjusted for age, smoking status, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure, we assessed the predictive value of FLI for incident diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: At a mean 8 year follow-up, 218 and 285 incident cases of diabetes and CHD, respectively, and 193 deaths were recorded. FLD was significantly associated in each gender with blood pressure, total cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, uric acid, and C-reactive protein; weakly with fasting glucose; and inversely with high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and sex hormone-binding globulin. In adjusted Cox models, FLD was (with a 5-fold HR) the major determinant of diabetes development. Analyses further disclosed significant independent prediction of CHD by FLD in combined gender [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.72, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17-2.53] and men (HR = 2.35, 95%CI: 1.25-4.43). Similarly-adjusted models for all-cause mortality proved, however, not to confer risk, except for a tendency in prediabetics and diabetic women. CONCLUSION: A surrogate of FLD conferred significant high risk of diabetes and coronary heart disease, independent of some metabolic syndrome traits. All-cause mortality was not associated with FLD, except likely in the prediabetic state. Such a FLI may reliably be used in epidemiologic studies. PMID:26730168

  15. Mortality Risk and Survival in the Aftermath of the Medieval Black Death

    PubMed Central

    DeWitte, Sharon N.

    2014-01-01

    The medieval Black Death (c. 1347-1351) was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history. It killed tens of millions of Europeans, and recent analyses have shown that the disease targeted elderly adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. Following the epidemic, there were improvements in standards of living, particularly in dietary quality for all socioeconomic strata. This study investigates whether the combination of the selective mortality of the Black Death and post-epidemic improvements in standards of living had detectable effects on survival and mortality in London. Samples are drawn from several pre- and post-Black Death London cemeteries. The pre-Black Death sample comes from the Guildhall Yard (n = 75) and St. Nicholas Shambles (n = 246) cemeteries, which date to the 11th–12th centuries, and from two phases within the St. Mary Spital cemetery, which date to between 1120-1300 (n = 143). The St. Mary Graces cemetery (n = 133) was in use from 1350–1538 and thus represents post-epidemic demographic conditions. By applying Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Gompertz hazard model to transition analysis age estimates, and controlling for changes in birth rates, this study examines differences in survivorship and mortality risk between the pre- and post-Black Death populations of London. The results indicate that there are significant differences in survival and mortality risk, but not birth rates, between the two time periods, which suggest improvements in health following the Black Death, despite repeated outbreaks of plague in the centuries after the Black Death. PMID:24806459

  16. Prehospital risk factors of mortality and impaired consciousness after severe traumatic brain injury: an epidemiological study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant health concern and a major burden for society. The period between trauma event and hospital admission in an emergency department (ED) could be a determinant for secondary brain injury and early survival. The aim was to investigate the relationship between prehospital factors associated with secondary brain injury (arterial hypotension, hypoxemia, hypothermia) and the outcomes of mortality and impaired consciousness of survivors at 14 days. Methods A multicenter, prospective cohort study was performed in dedicated trauma centres of Switzerland. Adults with severe TBI (Abbreviated Injury Scale score of head region (HAIS) >3) were included. Main outcome measures were death and impaired consciousness (Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤13) at 14 days. The associations between risk factors and outcome were assessed with univariate and multivariate regression models. Results 589 patients were included, median age was 55 years (IQR 33, 70). The median GCS in ED was 4 (IQR 3-14), with abnormal pupil reaction in 167 patients (29.2%). Median ISS was 25 (IQR 21, 34). Three hundred seven patients sustained their TBI from falls (52.1%) and 190 from a road traffic accidents (32.3%). Median time from Out-of-hospital Emergency Medical Service (OHEMS) departure on scene to arrival in ED was 50 minutes (IQR 37-72); 451 patients had a direct admission (76.6%). Prehospital hypotension was observed in 24 (4.1%) patients, hypoxemia in 73 (12.6%) patients and hypothermia in 146 (24.8%). Prehospital hypotension and hypothermia (apart of age and trauma severity) was associated with mortality. Prehospital hypoxemia (apart of trauma severity) was associated with impaired consciousness; indirect admission was a protective factor. Conclusion Mortality and impaired consciousness at 14 days do not have the same prehospital risk factors; prehospital hypotension and hypothermia is associated with mortality, and prehospital hypoxemia with

  17. Mortality risk and survival in the aftermath of the medieval Black Death.

    PubMed

    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2014-01-01

    The medieval Black Death (c. 1347-1351) was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history. It killed tens of millions of Europeans, and recent analyses have shown that the disease targeted elderly adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. Following the epidemic, there were improvements in standards of living, particularly in dietary quality for all socioeconomic strata. This study investigates whether the combination of the selective mortality of the Black Death and post-epidemic improvements in standards of living had detectable effects on survival and mortality in London. Samples are drawn from several pre- and post-Black Death London cemeteries. The pre-Black Death sample comes from the Guildhall Yard (n = 75) and St. Nicholas Shambles (n = 246) cemeteries, which date to the 11th-12th centuries, and from two phases within the St. Mary Spital cemetery, which date to between 1120-1300 (n = 143). The St. Mary Graces cemetery (n = 133) was in use from 1350-1538 and thus represents post-epidemic demographic conditions. By applying Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Gompertz hazard model to transition analysis age estimates, and controlling for changes in birth rates, this study examines differences in survivorship and mortality risk between the pre- and post-Black Death populations of London. The results indicate that there are significant differences in survival and mortality risk, but not birth rates, between the two time periods, which suggest improvements in health following the Black Death, despite repeated outbreaks of plague in the centuries after the Black Death. PMID:24806459

  18. Mortality among adults transferred and lost to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy programmes in South Africa: a multicentre cohort study

    PubMed Central

    CORNELL, Morna; LESSELLS, Richard; FOX, Matthew P.; GARONE, Daniela Belen; GIDDY, Janet; FENNER, Lukas; MYER, Landon; BOULLE, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Background & objectives Little is known about outcomes after transfer out (TFO) and loss to follow-up (LTF) and how differential outcomes might bias mortality estimates, as analyses generally censor or exclude TFOs/LTF. Using data linked to the National Population Register (NPR), we explored mortality among patients TFO and LTF compared with patients retained and investigated how linkage impacted on mortality estimates. Methods A cohort analysis of routine data on adults with civil-identification numbers starting ART 2004–2009 in four large South African ART cohorts. The number, proportion, timing and mortality of TFOs and LTF were reported. Mortality was compared using Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox’s proportional hazards and competing risks regression. Results Before linkage, 1207 patients (6%) had died, 2624 (13%) were LTF, 1067 (5%) were TFO and 14583 (75%) were retained. Compared with retained, mortality risk was three times higher among TFOs (aHR 3.11, 95% CI 2.42–3.99) and 20 times higher among LTF patients (aHR 22.03, 95% CI 20.05–24.21). Excluding early deaths after TFO or LTF, the risk was comparable among TFOs and retained (aHR 0.75, 95% CI 0.54–1.03) and higher among LTF (aHR 2.85, 95% CI 2.43–3.33). After linkage, corrected mortality was higher than site-reported mortality. Censoring did not however lead to substantial underestimation of mortality among TFOs. Conclusions While TFO and LTF predicted mortality, the lower incidence of TFO and subsequent death compared with LTF meant that censoring TFOs did not bias mortality estimates. Future cohort analyses should explicitly consider proportions TFO/LTF and mortality event rates. PMID:24977471

  19. Impact of weight cycling on risk of morbidity and mortality.

    PubMed

    Mehta, T; Smith, D L; Muhammad, J; Casazza, K

    2014-11-01

    Unintentional weight gain is commonly observed in adult humans, often provoking intentional weight loss attempts followed by unintentional weight regain. This episodic variation in body weight over a period of time has been referred to as 'weight cycling'. Over the last two decades, weight cycling has been associated with a number of morbid health conditions and increased mortality. This article provides a comprehensive evaluation of recent weight-cycling evidence, looks to understand design differences between studies and study outcomes, assesses the need for further research on particular health outcomes, and proposes alternative methodologies that will bridge the needs and capabilities of research. Searches were conducted per PRISMA guidelines. Articles on weight cycling in the literature were initially identified using search strings in PubMed. Eligibility assessment of the remaining articles was performed independently by three reviewers to identify publications that presented direct evidence. Twenty human studies (in addition to seven animal studies) were selected and retained; 12 accounted for the intentionality of weight loss. Although weight regain following successful weight loss remains one of the most challenging aspects of body-weight regulation, evidence for an adverse effect of weight cycling appears sparse, if it exists at all. PMID:25263568

  20. Epidemiology, outcomes, and predictors of mortality in hospitalized adults with Clostridium difficile infection.

    PubMed

    Khanna, Sahil; Gupta, Arjun; Baddour, Larry M; Pardi, Darrell S

    2016-08-01

    Studies have demonstrated an increasing Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) incidence in hospitals and the community, with increasing morbidity and mortality. In this study, we analyzed data from the National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS) to evaluate CDI epidemiology, outcomes, and predictors of mortality in hospitalized adults. We identified cases of CDI (and associated comorbid conditions) from NHDS data from 2005 through 2009 using ICD-9 codes. Weighted univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to ascertain CDI incidence, associations between CDI and outcomes [length of stay (LOS), colectomy, all-cause in-hospital mortality, and discharge to a care facility], and predictors of all-cause in-hospital mortality. Of an estimated 162 million adult inpatients, 1.26 million (0.8 %) had CDI. The overall CDI incidence is 77.8/10,000 hospitalizations, with no statistically significant change over the study period. On multivariate analysis, after adjusting for age, gender, and comorbid conditions, CDI is an independent predictor of longer LOS (mean difference, 2.35 days), all-cause mortality [odds ratio (OR) 1.45], colectomy (OR 1.41), and discharge to a care facility (OR 2.12) (all P < 0.001). Elderly patients have a higher CDI incidence and worse outcomes than younger adults. The strongest predictors of all-cause mortality in patients with CDI include age 65 years or older, colectomy, and coagulation abnormalities. Despite stable CDI incidence and advances in management, CDI is associated with increased LOS, colectomy, all-cause in-hospital mortality, and discharge to a care facility in hospitalized, especially elderly, adults. Age older than 65 years should be added to the severity criteria for CDI. PMID:26694494

  1. Associations between antioxidants and all-cause mortality among US adults with obstructive lung function.

    PubMed

    Ford, Earl S; Li, Chaoyang; Cunningham, Timothy J; Croft, Janet B

    2014-11-28

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is characterised by oxidative stress, but little is known about the associations between antioxidant status and all-cause mortality in adults with this disease. The objective of the present study was to examine the prospective associations between concentrations of α- and β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lutein/zeaxanthin, lycopene, Se, vitamin C and α-tocopherol and all-cause mortality among US adults with obstructive lung function. Data collected from 1492 adults aged 20-79 years with obstructive lung function in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (1988-94) were used. Through 2006, 629 deaths were identified during a median follow-up period of 14 years. After adjustment for demographic variables, the concentrations of the following antioxidants modelled as continuous variables were found to be inversely associated with all-cause mortality among adults with obstructive lung function: α-carotene (P= 0·037); β-carotene (P= 0·022); cryptoxanthin (P= 0·022); lutein/zeaxanthin (P= 0·004); total carotenoids (P= 0·001); vitamin C (P< 0·001). In maximally adjusted models, only the concentrations of lycopene (P= 0·013) and vitamin C (P= 0·046) were found to be significantly and inversely associated with all-cause mortality. No effect modification by sex was detected, but the association between lutein/zeaxanthin concentrations and all-cause mortality varied by smoking status (P interaction= 0·048). The concentrations of lycopene and vitamin C were inversely associated with all-cause mortality in this cohort of adults with obstructive lung function. PMID:25315508

  2. Mortality in Young Adults following in Utero and Childhood Exposure to Arsenic in Drinking Water

    PubMed Central

    Marshall, Guillermo; Liaw, Jane; Yuan, Yan; Ferreccio, Catterina; Steinmaus, Craig

    2012-01-01

    Background: Beginning in 1958, the city of Antofagasta in northern Chile was exposed to high arsenic concentrations (870 µg/L) when it switched water sources. The exposure abruptly stopped in 1970 when an arsenic-removal plant commenced operations. A unique exposure scenario like this—with an abrupt start, clear end, and large population (125,000 in 1970), all with essentially the same exposure—is rare in environmental epidemiology. Evidence of increased mortality from lung cancer, bronchiectasis, myocardial infarction, and kidney cancer has been reported among young adults who were in utero or children during the high-exposure period. Objective: We investigated other causes of mortality in Antofagasta among 30- to 49-year-old adults who were in utero or ≤ 18 years of age during the high-exposure period. Methods: We compared mortality data between Antofagasta and the rest of Chile for people 30–49 years of age during 1989–2000. We estimated expected deaths from mortality rates in all of Chile, excluding Region II where Antofagasta is located, and calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Results: We found evidence of increased mortality from bladder cancer [SMR = 18.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 11.3, 27.4], laryngeal cancer (SMR = 8.1; 95% CI: 3.5, 16.0), liver cancer (SMR = 2.5; 95% CI: 1.6, 3.7), and chronic renal disease (SMR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.5, 2.8). Conclusions: Taking together our findings in the present study and previous evidence of increased mortality from other causes of death, we conclude that arsenic in Antofagasta drinking water has resulted in the greatest increases in mortality in adults < 50 years of age ever associated with early-life environmental exposure. PMID:22949133

  3. Noise sensitivity and future risk of illness and mortality.

    PubMed

    Stansfeld, S A; Shipley, M

    2015-07-01

    Aircraft and road traffic noise exposure increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Noise annoyance is the most frequent response to environmental noise. Noise annoyance has been shown to modify the association of transport noise exposure on CVD and noise sensitivity moderates the annoyance response to noise. This study uses prospective data from phases 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9 in 3630 male and female civil servants from the UK Whitehall II Study to examine whether a single question on noise sensitivity measured by annoyance responses to noise in general predicts physical and mental ill-health and mortality. Non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke morbidity over the follow-up were defined by MONICA criteria based on study ECGs, hospital records, hospital admission statistics or General Practitioner confirmation. Depressive symptoms were measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and psychological distress by the General Health questionnaire (GHQ). There was no association between noise sensitivity and CVD morbidity or mortality except in people from lower employment grades where there was an association with angina. Noise sensitivity was a consistent predictor of depressive symptoms and psychological distress at phases 3, 5 and 7. High noise sensitivity scores at baseline predicted GHQ caseness at phase 3 adjusting for age, sex, employment grade, self-rated health and GHQ caseness at baseline (OR=1.56 95% CI 1.29-1.88). Noise sensitivity has been identified as a predictor of mental ill-health. More longitudinal research is needed including measures of noise exposure. PMID:25804878

  4. Risks from Worldwide Terrorism: Mortality and Morbidity Patterns and Trends

    SciTech Connect

    Bogen, K T; Jones, E D

    2005-01-25

    Worldwide data on terrorist incidents between 1968 and 2004 gathered by the RAND corporation and the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) were assessed for patterns and trends in morbidity/mortality. The data involve a total of 19,828 events, 7,401 ''adverse'' events (each causing {ge}1 victim), 91,346 cases of casualty (either injury or death) and 25,408 deaths. Analyses revealed a number of interesting patterns and apparently significant trends. Most terror-related adverse events, casualties and deaths involved bombs and guns. Weapon-specific patterns and terror-related risk levels in Israel (ISR) have differed markedly from those of all other regions combined (AOR). ISR had a fatal fraction of casualties about half that of AOR, but has experienced relatively constant lifetime terror-related casualty risks on the order of 0.5%--a level 2 to 3 orders of magnitude more than those experienced in AOR, which have increased {approx}100-fold over the same period. Individual event fatality has increased steadily, the median increasing from 14 to 50%. Lorenz curves obtained indicate substantial dispersion among victim/event rates: about half of all victims were caused by the top 2% (10%) of harm-ranked events in OAR (ISR). Extreme values of victim/event rates were found to be well modeled by classic or generalized Pareto distributions, indicating that these rates have been as predictable as similarly extreme phenomena such as rainfall, sea levels, earthquakes, etc. This observation suggests that these extreme-value patterns may be used to improve strategies to prevent and manage risks associated with terror-related consequences.

  5. Spatial patterns of coral survivorship: impacts of adult proximity versus other drivers of localized mortality.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, David A; Hay, Mark E

    2015-01-01

    Species-specific enemies may promote prey coexistence through negative distance- and density-dependent survival of juveniles near conspecific adults. We tested this mechanism by transplanting juvenile-sized fragments of the brooding corals Pocillopora damicornis and Seriatopora hystrix 3, 12, 24 and 182 cm up- and down-current of conspecific adults and monitoring their survival and condition over time. We also characterized the spatial distribution of P. damicornis and S. hystrix within replicate plots on three Fijian reef flats and measured the distribution of small colonies within 2 m of larger colonies of each species. Juvenile-sized transplants exhibited no differences in survivorship as a function of distance from adult P. damicornis or S. hystrix. Additionally, both P. damicornis and S. hystrix were aggregated rather than overdispersed on natural reefs. However, a pattern of juveniles being aggregated near adults while larger (and probably older) colonies were not suggests that greater mortality near large adults could occur over longer periods of time or that size-dependent mortality was occurring. While we found minimal evidence of greater mortality of small colonies near adult conspecifics in our transplant experiments, we did document hot-spots of species-specific corallivory. We detected spatially localized and temporally persistent predation on P. damicornis by the territorial triggerfish Balistapus undulatus. This patchy predation did not occur for S. hystrix. This variable selective regime in an otherwise more uniform environment could be one mechanism maintaining diversity of corals on Indo-Pacific reefs. PMID:26623193

  6. Spatial patterns of coral survivorship: impacts of adult proximity versus other drivers of localized mortality

    PubMed Central

    Gibbs, David A.

    2015-01-01

    Species-specific enemies may promote prey coexistence through negative distance- and density-dependent survival of juveniles near conspecific adults. We tested this mechanism by transplanting juvenile-sized fragments of the brooding corals Pocillopora damicornis and Seriatopora hystrix 3, 12, 24 and 182 cm up- and down-current of conspecific adults and monitoring their survival and condition over time. We also characterized the spatial distribution of P. damicornis and S. hystrix within replicate plots on three Fijian reef flats and measured the distribution of small colonies within 2 m of larger colonies of each species. Juvenile-sized transplants exhibited no differences in survivorship as a function of distance from adult P. damicornis or S. hystrix. Additionally, both P. damicornis and S. hystrix were aggregated rather than overdispersed on natural reefs. However, a pattern of juveniles being aggregated near adults while larger (and probably older) colonies were not suggests that greater mortality near large adults could occur over longer periods of time or that size-dependent mortality was occurring. While we found minimal evidence of greater mortality of small colonies near adult conspecifics in our transplant experiments, we did document hot-spots of species-specific corallivory. We detected spatially localized and temporally persistent predation on P. damicornis by the territorial triggerfish Balistapus undulatus. This patchy predation did not occur for S. hystrix. This variable selective regime in an otherwise more uniform environment could be one mechanism maintaining diversity of corals on Indo-Pacific reefs. PMID:26623193

  7. Association of sarcopenic obesity with the risk of all-cause mortality: A meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Tian, Simiao; Xu, Yang

    2016-02-01

    Many prospective studies have investigated the relationship between sarcopenic obesity (SO) and risk of mortality. However, the results have been controversial. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the association between SO and all-cause mortality in adults by a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. A systematic literature search was carried out through electronic databases up to September 2014. A total of nine articles with 12 prospective cohort studies, including 35 287 participants and 14 306 deaths, were included in the meta-analysis. Overall, compared with healthy subjects, subjects with SO had a significant increased risk of all-cause mortality (pooled HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.12-1.37, P < 0.001), with significant heterogeneity among studies (I(2)  = 53.18%, P = 0.0188), but no indication for publication bias (P = 0.7373). Heterogeneity became low and no longer significant in the subgroup analyses by three SO definitions. More importantly, SO, defined by mid-arm muscle circumference and muscle strength criteria, significantly increased the risk of mortality (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.23-1.73 and 1.23, 1.09-1.38, respectively). The risk of all-cause mortality did not appreciably change considering the geography (USA cohorts and non-USA cohorts) or the duration of follow up (≥10 years and <10 years). However, the risk estimate was only significant in men (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.08-1.41, P = 0.0017), not in women (HR 1.16, P = 0.1332). The results of the present study show that subjects with SO are associated with a 24% increase risk of all-cause mortality, compared with those without SO, in particular in men; the significant association was found independent of geographical location and duration of follow up. PMID:26271226

  8. Using passive acoustic telemetry to infer mortality events in adult herbivorous coral reef fishes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, J. A.; Welsh, J. Q.; Bellwood, D. R.

    2016-06-01

    Mortality is considered to be an important factor shaping the structure of coral reef fish communities, but data on the rate and nature of mortality of adult coral reef fishes are sparse. Mortality on coral reefs is intrinsically linked with predation, with most evidence suggesting that predation is highest during crepuscular periods. We tested this hypothesis using passive acoustic telemetry data to determine the time of day of potential mortality events (PMEs) of adult herbivorous reef fishes. A total of 94 fishes were tagged with acoustic transmitters, of which 43 exhibited a PME. Furthermore, we identified five categories of PMEs based on the nature of change in acoustic signal detections from tagged fishes. The majority of PMEs were characterised by an abrupt stop in detections, possibly as a result of a large, mobile predator. Overall, mortality rates were estimated to be approximately 59 % per year using passive acoustic telemetry. The time of day of PMEs suggests that predation was highest during the day and crepuscular periods and lowest at night, offering only partial support for the crepuscular predation hypothesis. Visually oriented, diurnal and crepuscular predators appear to be more important than their nocturnal counterparts in terms of predation on adult reef fishes. By timing PMEs, passive acoustic telemetry may offer an important new tool for investigating the nature of predation on coral reefs.

  9. Weight change and all-cause mortality in older adults: A meta-analysis

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This meta-analysis of observational cohort studies examined the association between weight change (weight loss, weight gain, and weight fluctuation) and all-cause mortality among older adults. We used PubMed (MEDLINE), Web of Science, and Cochrane Library to identify prospective studies published in...

  10. Residential Characteristics, Social Factors, and Mortality among Adults with Intellectual Disabilities: Transitions out of Nursing Homes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hsieh, Kelly; Heller, Tamar; Freels, Sally

    2009-01-01

    The present study examined the degree to which residential characteristics and social factors are associated with mortality, after controlling for personal characteristics, among adults with intellectual disabilities who have resided in nursing homes (facilities providing skilled care and related services) at baseline in the Chicago area. Initial…

  11. Education and occupational social class: which is the more important indicator of mortality risk?

    PubMed Central

    Davey, S; Hart, C.; Hole, D.; MacKinnon, P.; Gillis, C.; Watt, G.; Blane, D.; Hawthorne, V.

    1998-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVES: In the UK, studies of socioeconomic differentials in mortality have generally relied upon occupational social class as the index of socioeconomic position, while in the US, measures based upon education have been widely used. These two measures have different characteristics; for example, social class can change throughout adult life, while education is unlikely to alter after early adulthood. Therefore different interpretations can be given to the mortality differentials that are seen. The objective of this analysis is to demonstrate the profile of mortality differentials, and the factors underlying these differentials, which are associated with the two socioeconomic measures. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: 27 work places in the west of Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 5749 men aged 35-64 who completed questionnaires and were examined between 1970 and 1973. FINDINGS: At baseline, similar gradients between socioeconomic position and blood pressure, height, lung function, and smoking behaviour were seen, regardless of whether the education or social class measure was used. Manual social class and early termination of full time education were associated with higher blood pressure, shorter height, poorer lung function, and a higher prevalence of smoking. Within education strata, the graded association between smoking and social class remains strong, whereas within social class groups the relation between education and smoking is attenuated. Over 21 years of follow up, 1639 of the men died. Mortality from all causes and from three broad cause of death groups (cardiovascular disease, malignant disease, and other causes) showed similar associations with social class and education. For all cause of death groups, men in manual social classes and men who terminated full time education at an early age had higher death rates. Cardiovascular disease was the cause of death group most strongly associated with education, while the non- cardiovascular

  12. Latino risk-adjusted mortality in the men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Avis J; Eberly, Lynn E; Neaton, James D; Smith, George Davey

    2005-09-15

    Latinos are now the largest minority in the United States, but their distinctive health needs and mortality patterns remain poorly understood. Proportional hazards regressions were used to compare Latino versus White risk- and income-adjusted mortality over 25 years' follow-up from 5,846 Latino and 300,647 White men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial. Men were aged 35-57 years and residing in 14 states when screened in 1973-1975. Data on coronary heart disease risk factors, self-reported race/ethnicity, and home addresses were obtained at baseline; income was estimated by linking addresses to census data. Mortality follow-up through 1999 was obtained using the National Death Index. The fully adjusted Latino/White hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77, 0.87), based on 1,085 Latino and 73,807 White deaths; this pattern prevailed over time and across states (thus, likely across Latino subgroups). Hazard ratios were significantly greater than one for stroke (hazard ratio = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.68), liver cancer (hazard ratio = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.37), and infection (hazard ratio = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.32). A substudy found only minor racial/ethnic differences in the quality of Social Security numbers, birth dates, soundex-adjusted names, and National Death Index searches. Results were not likely an artifact of return migration or incomplete mortality data. PMID:16076831

  13. Increased Cancer Mortality Risk for NASA's ISS Astronauts: The Contribution of Diagnostic Radiological Examinations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dodge, C.W.; Picco, C. E.; Gonzalez, S. M.; Johnston, S. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Shavers, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the radiation exposures and risks associated with long-term spaceflight on the International Space Station. NASA's risk model of cancer mortality is also presented.

  14. Temporal Changes in Postdischarge Mortality Risk After Hospitalization for Heart Failure (from the EVEREST Trial).

    PubMed

    Cook, Thomas D; Greene, Stephen J; Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P; Fonarow, Gregg C; Zea, Ryan; Swedberg, Karl; Zannad, Faiez; Maggioni, Aldo P; Konstam, Marvin A; Gheorghiade, Mihai; Butler, Javed

    2016-02-15

    In observational studies of patients hospitalized for heart failure (HHF), risk of death is highest immediately after discharge and decreases over time. It is unclear whether this population risk trajectory reflects (1) lowering of individual patient mortality risk with increasing time from index hospitalization or (2) temporal changes in population case-mix with earlier postdischarge death for "sicker" patients. Survival rate and longitudinal models were used to estimate temporal changes in postdischarge all-cause mortality risk in 3,993 HHF patients discharged alive in the Efficacy of Vasopressin Antagonism in Heart Failure Outcome Study with Tolvaptan (EVEREST) trial. After median follow-up of 9.9 months, 971 patients died (24.2%). Predicted mortality rate decreased from 15.9 per 100 patient-years immediately after discharge to 13.4 at 30 days and 12.8 at 90 days; mortality rate increased steadily thereafter. Risk variation between quintiles of risk was considerably larger than the temporal variation within risk strata. In a longitudinal model serially reassessing predicted patient mortality risk after each follow-up visit using data collected at these visits, predicted mortality risk increased during the 90 days preceding subsequent heart failure readmission and then followed a postdischarge trajectory similar to the index admission. In conclusion, although there is transiently elevated individual patient risk in the 90 days before and after discharge, the patient's individual risk profile, rather than temporal change in risk relative to hospitalization, remains the main determinant of mortality. For purposes of reducing all-cause mortality in HF patients, preventative and therapeutic measures may be best implemented as long-term interventions for high mortality risk patients based on serial risk assessments, irrespective of recent hospitalization. PMID:26742474

  15. Incidence of, and reasons for, tooth mortality among mentally retarded adults during a 10-year period.

    PubMed

    Gabre, P; Martinsson, T; Gahnberg, L

    1999-02-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate the reasons for, and incidence of, tooth mortality over a 10-year period in mentally retarded adults receiving regular dental care. The number of teeth present in 115 individuals (mean age in 1984 was 41.0, range 19-83 years) was registered in 1984 and 1994. The reasons for tooth mortality, medication utilization, frequency of dental care visits and cooperation during dental treatment were registered and related to tooth loss. The average incidence of tooth mortality was 3.72 teeth during the 10-year period. The mean number of dental care visits per year was 6.6. Most of the 428 teeth (58%) were lost due to periodontal disease. The preventive dental care given was not sufficient to arrest oral diseases. The data indicate, however, that achievement of cooperation in dental care situations not only makes dental treatment possible, but also leads to a decreased incidence of tooth mortality. PMID:10207537

  16. High diet quality is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in older men.

    PubMed

    Atkins, Janice L; Whincup, Peter H; Morris, Richard W; Lennon, Lucy T; Papacosta, Olia; Wannamethee, S Goya

    2014-05-01

    Although diet quality is implicated in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, few studies have investigated the relation between diet quality and the risks of CVD and mortality in older adults. This study examined the prospective associations between dietary scores and risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in older British men. A total of 3328 men (aged 60-79 y) from the British Regional Heart Study, free from CVD at baseline, were followed up for 11.3 y for CVD and mortality. Baseline food-frequency questionnaire data were used to generate 2 dietary scores: the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI), based on WHO dietary guidelines, and the Elderly Dietary Index (EDI), based on a Mediterranean-style dietary intake, with higher scores indicating greater compliance with dietary recommendations. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses assessed associations between quartiles of HDI and EDI and risk of all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, CVD events, and coronary heart disease (CHD) events. During follow-up, 933 deaths, 327 CVD deaths, 582 CVD events, and 307 CHD events occurred. Men in the highest compared with the lowest EDI quartile had significantly lower risks of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.94; P-trend = 0.03), CVD mortality (HR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.42, 0.94; P-trend = 0.03), and CHD events (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.45, 0.97; P-trend = 0.05) but not CVD events (HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.60, 1.05; P-trend = 0.16) after adjustment for sociodemographic, behavioral, and cardiovascular risk factors. The HDI was not significantly associated with any of the outcomes. The EDI appears to be more useful than the HDI for assessing diet quality in relation to CVD and morality risk in older men. Encouraging older adults to adhere to the guidelines inherent in the EDI criteria may have public health benefits. PMID:24572037

  17. Submaximal fitness and mortality risk reduction in coronary heart disease: a retrospective cohort study of community-based exercise rehabilitation

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Claire; Tsakirides, Costas; Moxon, James; Moxon, James William; Dudfield, Michael; Witte, Klaus K; Ingle, Lee; Carroll, Sean

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To examine the association between submaximal cardiorespiratory fitness (sCRF) and all-cause mortality in a cardiac rehabilitation (CR) cohort. Design Retrospective cohort study of participants entering CR between 26 May 1993 and 16 October 2006, followed up to 1 November 2013 (median 14 years, range 1.2–19.4 years). Setting A community-based CR exercise programme in Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK. Participants A cohort of 534 men (76%) and 136 women with a clinical diagnosis of coronary heart disease (CHD), aged 22–82 years, attending CR were evaluated for the association between baseline sCRF and all-cause mortality. 416 participants with an exercise test following CR (median 14 weeks) were examined for changes in sCRF and all-cause mortality. Main outcome measures All-cause mortality and change in sCRF expressed in estimated metabolic equivalents (METs). Results Baseline sCRF was a strong predictor of all-cause mortality; compared to the lowest sCRF group (<5 METs for women and <6 METs for men), mortality risk was 41% lower in those with moderate sCRF (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.42 to 0.83) and 60% lower (HR 0.40; 95% CI 0.25 to 0.64) in those with higher sCRF levels (≥7 METs women and ≥8 METs for men). Although improvement in sCRF at 14 weeks was not associated with a significant mortality risk reduction (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.79 to 1.06) for the whole cohort, in those with the lowest sCRF (and highest all-cause mortality) at baseline, each 1-MET improvement was associated with a 27% age-adjusted reduction in mortality risk (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.57 to 0.94). Conclusions Higher baseline sCRF is associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality over 14 years in adults with CHD. Improving fitness through exercise-based CR is associated with significant risk reduction for the least fit. PMID:27363816

  18. The effect of sex on risk of mortality during the Black Death in London, A.D. 1349-1350.

    PubMed

    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2009-06-01

    The Black Death of 1347-1351 was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history, and though it is frequently assumed that the epidemic killed indiscriminately, recent research suggests that the disease was selective, at least with respect to frailty. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the Black Death was similarly selective with respect to biological sex-that is, did either sex face an elevated risk during the epidemic or were men and women at equal risk of dying? A sample of 298 victims of the Black Death, from the East Smithfield cemetery in London, is compared to a pre-Black Death normal mortality sample of 194 individuals from two Danish urban cemeteries, St Mikkel Church (Viborg) and St Albani Church (Odense). To assess the effect of sex on risk of death, sex is modeled as a covariate affecting the Gompertz-Makeham model of adult mortality. The results suggest that sex did not strongly affect risk of death in either the normal mortality or Black Death samples. These results are important for improving our understanding of Black Death mortality patterns. This is essential for understanding the effects the Black Death had on European populations, and the methods used here can potentially be informatively applied to investigations of other episodes of epidemic diseases in past populations. PMID:19140182

  19. Ageism and Risk-Taking in Young Adults: Evidence for a Link between Death Anxiety and Ageism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Popham, Lauren E.; Kennison, Shelia M.; Bradley, Kristopher I.

    2011-01-01

    The authors investigated the relationship between ageism and risk-taking in young adults. They hypothesized that young adults may attempt to distance themselves from their future older selves and from an awareness of their mortality by seeking out experiences that make them feel strong, energetic, and invulnerable (i.e., experiences involving…

  20. Desiccation as a mitigation tool to manage biofouling risks: trials on temperate taxa to elucidate factors influencing mortality rates.

    PubMed

    Hopkins, Grant A; Prince, Madeleine; Cahill, Patrick L; Fletcher, Lauren M; Atalah, Javier

    2016-01-01

    The desiccation tolerance of biofouling taxa (adults and early life-stages) was determined under both controlled and 'realistic' field conditions. Adults of the ascidian Ciona spp. died within 24 h. Mortality in the adult blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis occurred within 11 d under controlled conditions, compared with 7 d when held outside. The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas was the most desiccation-tolerant taxon tested (up to 34 d under controlled conditions). Biofouling orientated to direct sunlight showed faster mortality rates for all the taxa tested. Mortality in Mytilus juveniles took up to 24 h, compared with 8 h for Ciona, with greater survival at the higher temperature (18.5°C) and humidity (~95% RH) treatment combination. This study demonstrated that desiccation can be an effective mitigation method for a broad range of fouling taxa, especially their early life-stages. Further work is necessary to assess risks from other high-risk species such as algae and cyst forming species. PMID:26691450

  1. Low serum carotenoid concentrations and carotenoid interactions predict mortality in US adults: The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III)

    PubMed Central

    Shardell, Michelle D; Alley, Dawn E; Hicks, Gregory E; El-Kamary, Samer S; Miller, Ram R; Semba, Richard D; Ferrucci, Luigi

    2011-01-01

    Evidence regarding the health benefits of carotenoids is controversial. Effects of serum carotenoids and their interactions on mortality have not been examined in a representative sample of US adults. The objective was to examine whether serum carotenoid concentrations predict mortality among US adults. The study consisted of adults aged ≥20 years enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III, 1988–1994, with measured serum carotenoids and mortality follow-up through 2006 (N=13,293). Outcomes were all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer mortality. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, participants in the lowest total carotenoid quartile (<1.01µmol/L) had significantly higher all-cause mortality (mortality rate ratio=1.38; 95% confidence interval:1.15—1.65; P=0.005) than those in the highest total carotenoid quartile (>1.75µmol/L). For alpha-carotene, the highest quartile (>0.11µmol/L) had the lowest all-cause mortality rates (P<0.001). For lycopene, the middle two quartiles (0.29–0.58µmol/L) had the lowest all-cause mortality rates (P=0.047). Analyses with continuous carotenoids confirmed associations of serum total carotenoids, alpha-carotene, and lycopene with all-cause mortality (P<0.001). In a random survival forest analysis, very low lycopene was the carotenoid most strongly predictive of all-cause mortality, followed by very low total carotenoids. Alpha-carotene/beta-cryptoxanthin, alpha-carotene/lutein+zeaxanthin and lycopene/lutein+zeaxanthin interactions were significantly related to all-cause mortality (P<0.05). Low alpha-carotene was the only carotenoid associated with CVD mortality (P=0.002). No carotenoids were significantly associated with cancer mortality. Very low serum total carotenoid, alpha-carotene, and lycopene concentrations may be risk factors for mortality, but carotenoids show interaction effects on mortality. Interventions of balanced carotenoid combinations are needed for

  2. Mortality in eating disorders: a follow-up study of adult eating disorder patients treated in tertiary care, 1995-2010.

    PubMed

    Suokas, Jaana T; Suvisaari, Jaana M; Gissler, Mika; Löfman, Rasmus; Linna, Milla S; Raevuori, Anu; Haukka, Jari

    2013-12-30

    Elevated mortality risk in anorexia nervosa has been established, but less is known about the outcomes of bulimia nervosa and binge eating disorder. In this follow-up study we determined mortality in adults (N=2450, 95% women) admitted to the eating disorder clinic of the Helsinki University Central Hospital in the period 1995-2010. Most of the patients (80.7%) were outpatients. For each patient four controls were selected and matched for age, sex and place of residence. The matching was taken into account by modelling end-point events using Cox's proportional hazard model. The hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality was 6.51 (95% CI 3.46-12.26) in broad anorexia nervosa (AN), 2.97 (95% CI 1.90-4.65) in broad bulimia nervosa (BN), and 1.77 (95% CI 0.60-5.27) in binge eating disorder (BED). Mortality risk in broad AN was highest during the first years after admission but declined thereafter, while in broad BN the mortality risk started to rise two years after the first admission. The HR for suicide was elevated both in broad AN (HR 5.07; 95% CI 1.37-18.84) and in broad BN (HR 6.07; 95% CI 2.47-14.89). Results show that eating disorders are associated with increased mortality risk even when specialised treatment is available. PMID:23958333

  3. Risk factors for mortality among patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia: a single-centre retrospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Jegatheswaran, Januvi; Pepe, Daniel Luke; Priestap, Fran; Delport, Johan; Haeryfar, S.M. Mansour; McCormick, John K.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Given the paucity of recent Canadian data, we estimated the mortality rate associated with S. aureus bacteremia in a tertiary care hospital and identified risk factors associated with mortality. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the records of adults with S. aureus bacteremia admitted to a tertiary care centre in southwestern Ontario between 2008 and 2012. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate associations between predictor variables and all-cause, in-hospital, and 90-day postdischarge mortality. Results Of the 925 patients involved in the study, 196 (21.2%) died in hospital and 62 (6.7%) died within 90 days after discharge. Risk factors associated with in-hospital and all-cause mortality included age, sepsis (adjusted hazard ratio [adjusted HR] 1.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08–2.06, p = 0.02), admission to the intensive care unit (adjusted HR 3.78, 95% CI 2.85–5.02, p < 0.0001), hepatic failure (adjusted HR 3.36, 95% CI 1.91–5.90, p < 0.0001) and metastatic cancer (adjusted HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.77–3.75, p < 0.0001). Methicillin resistance, hepatic failure, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and metastatic cancer were associated with postdischarge mortality. Interpretation The all-cause mortality rate in our cohort was 27.9%. Identification of predictors of mortality may guide empiric therapy and provide prognostic clarity for patients with S. aureus bacteremia. PMID:25553328

  4. Mortality Trends from 2003 to 2009 among Adolescents and Young Adults in Rural Western Kenya Using a Health and Demographic Surveillance System

    PubMed Central

    Phillips-Howard, Penelope A.; Odhiambo, Frank O.; Hamel, Mary; Ackers, Marta; van Eijk, Anne M.; Orimba, Vincent; Hoog, Anja van’t; Beynon, Caryl; Vulule, John; Bellis, Mark A.; Slutsker, Laurence; deCock, Kevin; Breiman, Robert; Laserson, Kayla F.

    2012-01-01

    Background Targeted global efforts to improve survival of young adults need information on mortality trends; contributions from health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) are required. Methods and Findings This study aimed to explore changing trends in deaths among adolescents (15–19 years) and young adults (20–24 years), using census and verbal autopsy data in rural western Kenya using a HDSS. Mid-year population estimates were used to generate all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 population by age and gender, by communicable (CD) and non-communicable disease (NCD) causes. Linear trends from 2003 to 2009 were examined. In 2003, all-cause mortality rates of adolescents and young adults were 403 and 1,613 per 100,000 population, respectively, among females; and 217 and 716 per 100,000, respectively, among males. CD mortality rates among females and males 15–24 years were 500 and 191 per 100,000 (relative risk [RR] 2.6; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.7–4.0; p<0.001). NCD mortality rates in same aged females and males were similar (141 and 128 per 100,000, respectively; p = 0.76). By 2009, young adult female all-cause mortality rates fell 53% (χ2 for linear trend 30.4; p<0.001) and 61.5% among adolescent females (χ2 for linear trend 11.9; p<0.001). No significant CD mortality reductions occurred among males or for NCD mortality in either gender. By 2009, all-cause, CD, and NCD mortality rates were not significantly different between males and females, and among males, injuries equalled HIV as the top cause of death. Conclusions This study found significant reductions in adolescent and young adult female mortality rates, evidencing the effects of targeted public health programmes, however, all-cause and CD mortality rates among females remain alarmingly high. These data underscore the need to strengthen programmes and target strategies to reach both males and females, and to promote NCD as well as CD initiatives to reduce the mortality burden

  5. Association between dietary quality and mortality in older adults: a review of the epidemiological evidence.

    PubMed

    Ford, Dara Wheeler; Jensen, Gordon L; Hartman, Terryl J; Wray, Linda; Smiciklas-Wright, Helen

    2013-01-01

    The population is aging worldwide. Delayed mortality is associated with an increased burden of chronic health conditions, many of which have a dietary component. A literature search was conducted to retrieve and review relevant articles considering quality of diets in association with mortality in older adults aged 60 years and older. In the studies we reviewed, diet quality defined using either a priori methods, which characterize dietary patterns based on existing dietary guidelines, or a posteriori methods, which define dietary patterns through statistical methods met review criteria. Sixteen articles met criteria for review. Generally, dietary patterns that demonstrated greater adherence to diets that emphasized whole fruits and vegetables, whole grains, low-fat dairy, lean meats, and legumes and nuts were inversely associated with mortality. However, a priori methods have not yet demonstrated associations between diet and mortality in older adults in the United States. Development of new methods based on regional variations in dietary intake may offer the best approach to assess associations with mortality. PMID:23663210

  6. Predicting Early Mortality in Adult Trauma Patients Admitted to Three Public University Hospitals in Urban India: A Prospective Multicentre Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Gerdin, Martin; Roy, Nobhojit; Khajanchi, Monty; Kumar, Vineet; Dharap, Satish; Felländer-Tsai, Li; Petzold, Max; Bhoi, Sanjeev; Saha, Makhan Lal; von Schreeb, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Background In India alone, more than one million people die yearly due to trauma. Identification of patients at risk of early mortality is crucial to guide clinical management and explain prognosis. Prediction models can support clinical judgement, but existing models have methodological limitations. The aim of this study was to derive a vital sign based prediction model for early mortality among adult trauma patients admitted to three public university hospitals in urban India. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study of adult trauma patients admitted to three urban university hospitals in India between October 2013 and January 2014. The outcome measure was mortality within 24 hours. We used logistic regression with restricted cubic splines to derive our model. We assessed model performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, and optimism. Results A total of 1629 patients were included. Median age was 35, 80% were males. Mortality between admission and 24 hours was 6%. Our final model included systolic blood pressure, heart rate, and Glasgow coma scale. Our model displayed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCC) of 0.85. Predicted mortality corresponded well with observed mortality, indicating good calibration. Conclusion This study showed that routinely recorded systolic blood pressure, heart rate, and Glasgow coma scale predicted early hospital mortality in trauma patients admitted to three public university hospitals in urban India. Our model needs to be externally validated before it can be applied in the clinical setting. PMID:25180494

  7. Low-Temperature Stress during Capped Brood Stage Increases Pupal Mortality, Misorientation and Adult Mortality in Honey Bees

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Qing; Xu, Xinjian; Zhu, Xiangjie; Chen, Lin; Zhou, Shujing; Huang, Zachary Y.; Zhou, Bingfeng

    2016-01-01

    Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are key pollinators, playing a vital role in ecosystem maintenance and stability of crop yields. Recently, reduced honey bee survival has attracted intensive attention. Among all other honey bee stresses, temperature is a fundamental ecological factor that has been shown to affect honey bee survival. Yet, the impact of low temperature stress during capped brood on brood mortality has not been systematically investigated. In addition, little was known about how low temperature exposure during capped brood affects subsequent adult longevity. In this study, capped worker broods at 12 different developmental stages were exposed to 20°C for 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84 and 96 hours, followed by incubation at 35°C until emergence. We found that longer durations of low temperature during capped brood led to higher mortality, higher incidences of misorientation inside cells and shorter worker longevity. Capped brood as prepupae and near emergence were more sensitive to low-temperature exposure, while capped larvae and mid-pupal stages showed the highest resistance to low-temperature stress. Our results suggest that prepupae and pupae prior to eclosion are the most sensitive stages to low temperature stress, as they are to other stresses, presumably due to many physiological changes related to metamorphosis happening during these two stages. Understanding how low-temperature stress affects honey bee physiology and longevity can improve honey bee management strategies. PMID:27149383

  8. Low-Temperature Stress during Capped Brood Stage Increases Pupal Mortality, Misorientation and Adult Mortality in Honey Bees.

    PubMed

    Wang, Qing; Xu, Xinjian; Zhu, Xiangjie; Chen, Lin; Zhou, Shujing; Huang, Zachary Y; Zhou, Bingfeng

    2016-01-01

    Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are key pollinators, playing a vital role in ecosystem maintenance and stability of crop yields. Recently, reduced honey bee survival has attracted intensive attention. Among all other honey bee stresses, temperature is a fundamental ecological factor that has been shown to affect honey bee survival. Yet, the impact of low temperature stress during capped brood on brood mortality has not been systematically investigated. In addition, little was known about how low temperature exposure during capped brood affects subsequent adult longevity. In this study, capped worker broods at 12 different developmental stages were exposed to 20°C for 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84 and 96 hours, followed by incubation at 35°C until emergence. We found that longer durations of low temperature during capped brood led to higher mortality, higher incidences of misorientation inside cells and shorter worker longevity. Capped brood as prepupae and near emergence were more sensitive to low-temperature exposure, while capped larvae and mid-pupal stages showed the highest resistance to low-temperature stress. Our results suggest that prepupae and pupae prior to eclosion are the most sensitive stages to low temperature stress, as they are to other stresses, presumably due to many physiological changes related to metamorphosis happening during these two stages. Understanding how low-temperature stress affects honey bee physiology and longevity can improve honey bee management strategies. PMID:27149383

  9. Cruciferous vegetable consumption is associated with a reduced risk of total and cardiovascular disease mortality1234

    PubMed Central

    Shu, Xiao-Ou; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Yang, Gong; Li, Honglan; Gao, Jing; Cai, Hui; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei

    2011-01-01

    Background: Asian populations habitually consume a large amount of cruciferous vegetables and other plant-based foods. Few epidemiologic investigations have evaluated the potential health effects of these foods in Asian populations. Objective: We aimed to examine the associations of cruciferous vegetables, noncruciferous vegetables, total vegetables, and total fruit intake with risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Design: The analysis included 134,796 Chinese adults who participated in 2 population-based, prospective cohort studies: the Shanghai Women's Health Study and the Shanghai Men's Health Study. Dietary intakes were assessed at baseline through in-person interviews by using validated food-frequency questionnaires. Deaths were ascertained by biennial home visits and linkage with vital statistics registries. Results: We identified 3442 deaths among women during a mean follow-up of 10.2 y and 1951 deaths among men during a mean follow-up of 4.6 y. Overall, fruit and vegetable intake was inversely associated with risk of total mortality in both women and men, and a dose-response pattern was particularly evident for cruciferous vegetable intake. The pooled multivariate hazard ratios (95% CIs) for total mortality across increasing quintiles of intake were 1 (reference), 0.91 (0.84, 0.98), 0.88 (0.77, 1.00), 0.85 (0.76, 0.96), and 0.78 (0.71, 0.85) for cruciferous vegetables (P < 0.0001 for trend) and 0.88 (0.79, 0.97), 0.88 (0.79, 0.98), 0.76 (0.62, 0.92), and 0.84 (0.69, 1.00) for total vegetables (P = 0.03 for trend). The inverse associations were primarily related to cardiovascular disease mortality but not to cancer mortality. Conclusion: Our findings support recommendations to increase consumption of vegetables, particularly cruciferous vegetables, and fruit to promote cardiovascular health and overall longevity. PMID:21593509

  10. Inflammatory markers and mortality among US adults with obstructive lung function

    PubMed Central

    FORD, Earl S.; CUNNINGHAM, Timothy J.; MANNINO, David M.

    2015-01-01

    Background and objective Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is characterized by an inflammatory state of uncertain significance. The objective of this study was to examine the association between elevated inflammatory marker count (white blood cell count, C-reactive protein and fibrinogen) on all-cause mortality in a national sample of US adults with obstructive lung function (OLF). Methods Data for 1144 adults aged 40–79 years in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III Linked Mortality Study were analysed. Participants entered the study from 1988 to 1994, and mortality surveillance was conducted through 2006. White blood cell count and fibrinogen were dichotomized at their medians, and C-reactive protein was divided into >3 and ≤3 g/L. The number of elevated inflammatory markers was summed to create a score of 0–3. Results The age-adjusted distribution of the number of elevated inflammatory markers differed significantly among participants with normal lung function, mild OLF, and moderate or worse OLF. Of the three dichotomized markers, only fibrinogen was significantly associated with mortality among adults with any OLF (maximally adjusted hazard ratio 1.49; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17–1.91). The maximally adjusted hazard ratios for having 1, 2 or 3 elevated markers were 1.17 (95% CI: 0.71–1.94), 1.44 (95% CI: 0.89–2.32) and 2.08 (95% CI: 1.29–3.37), respectively (P = 0.003). Conclusions An index of elevated inflammatory markers predicted all-cause mortality among adults with OLF. PMID:25739826

  11. Mortality in Adult Offspring of Immigrants: A Swedish National Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Manhica, Hélio; Toivanen, Susanna; Hjern, Anders; Rostila, Mikael

    2015-01-01

    Background Higher risks of psychiatric disorders and lower-than-average subjective health in adulthood have been demonstrated in offspring of immigrants in Sweden compared with offspring of native Swedes, and linked to relative socioeconomic disadvantage. The present study investigated mortality rates in relation to this inequity from a gender perspective. Methods We used data from national registers covering the entire Swedish population aged 18-65 years. Offspring of foreign-born parents who were either Swedish born or had received residency in Sweden before school age (<7 years) were defined as “offspring of immigrants.” We used Cox regression models to examine the association between parental country of birth and mortality between 1990 and 2008, with adjustment for education, income, age and family type. Results Male offspring of immigrants from the Middle East (HR:2.00, CI:1.66-2.26), other non-European countries (HR:1.80, CI:1.36-2.36) and Finland (HR:1.56, CI:1.48-1.65) showed an age-adjusted excess mortality risk from all causes of death when compared to offspring with Swedish-born parents. Income, but not education, greatly attenuated these increased mortality risks. No excess mortality rates were found among female offspring of immigrants, with the exception of external cause of death among offspring of Finnish immigrants. Conclusion The study demonstrates high mortality rates in male offspring of immigrants from Finland and non-European countries that are associated with economic, but not educational, disadvantage. No increased mortality rates were found among female offspring of immigrants. Future studies are needed to explain this gender differential and why income, but not education, predicts mortality in male offspring of immigrants. PMID:25706297

  12. Intraurban Variations in Adult Mortality in a Large Latin American City

    PubMed Central

    Green Franklin, Tracy; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo

    2007-01-01

    Urbanization is high and growing in low- and middle-income countries, but intraurban variations in adult health have been infrequently examined. We used spatial analysis methods to investigate spatial variation in total, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and neoplasm adult mortality in Buenos Aires, Argentina, a large city within a middle-income country in Latin America. Conditional autoregressive models were used to examine the contribution of socioeconomic inequalities to the spatial patterning observed. Spatial autocorrelation was present in both men and women for total deaths, cardiovascular deaths, and other causes of death (Moran’s Is ranging from 0.15 to 0.37). There was some spatial autocorrelation for respiratory deaths, which was stronger in men than in women. Neoplasm deaths were not spatially patterned. Socioeconomic disadvantage explained some of this spatial patterning and was strongly associated with death from all causes except respiratory deaths in women and neoplasms in men and women [relative rates (RR) for 90th vs 10th percentile of percent of adults with incomplete high school and 95% confidence intervals: 1.23 and 1.09–1.39 vs 1.24 and 1.08–1.42 for total deaths in men and women, respectively; 1.36 and 1.15–1.60 vs 1.22 and 1.01–1.47 for cardiovascular deaths; 1.21 and 0.97–1.52 vs 1.07 and 0.85–1.34 for respiratory deaths; 0.94 and 0.85–1.04 vs 1.03 and 0.87–1.22 for neoplasms; and 1.49 and 1.20–1.85 vs 1.63 and 1.31–2.03 for other deaths].There is substantial intraurban variation in risk of death within cities. This spatial variability was present for multiple causes of death and is partly explained by the spatial patterning of socioeconomic disadvantage. Our results highlight the pervasive role of space and social inequalities in shaping life and death within large cities. PMID:17357849

  13. Mortality Risk Among Black and White Working Women: The Role of Perceived Work Trajectories

    PubMed Central

    Shippee, Tetyana P.; Rinaldo, Lindsay; Ferraro, Kenneth F.

    2012-01-01

    Objective Drawing from cumulative inequality theory, the authors examine the relationship between perceived work trajectories and mortality risk among Black and White women over 36 years. Method Panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Women (1967-2003) are used to evaluate how objective and subjective elements of work shape mortality risk for Black and White women born between 1923 and 1937. Results Estimates from Cox proportional hazards models reveal that Black working women manifest higher mortality risk than White working women even after accounting for occupation, personal income, and household wealth. Perceived work trajectories were also associated with mortality risk for Black women but not for White women. Discussion The findings reveal the imprint of women’s work life on mortality, especially for Black women, and illustrate the importance of considering personal meanings associated with objective work characteristics. PMID:21956101

  14. The effect of modifiable risk factors on geographic mortality differentials: a modelling study

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown. Methods We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy. Results Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas--accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men) and 35.6% (women) of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men-- accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively-- and only smoking contributing to the difference in women--accounting for 12.3%. Conclusions These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas. PMID:22276576

  15. Risks of all-cause and suicide mortality in mental disorders: a meta-review.

    PubMed

    Chesney, Edward; Goodwin, Guy M; Fazel, Seena

    2014-06-01

    A meta-review, or review of systematic reviews, was conducted to explore the risks of all-cause and suicide mortality in major mental disorders. A systematic search generated 407 relevant reviews, of which 20 reported mortality risks in 20 different mental disorders and included over 1.7 million patients and over a quarter of a million deaths. All disorders had an increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with the general population, and many had mortality risks larger than or comparable to heavy smoking. Those with the highest all-cause mortality ratios were substance use disorders and anorexia nervosa. These higher mortality risks translate into substantial (10-20 years) reductions in life expectancy. Borderline personality disorder, anorexia nervosa, depression and bipolar disorder had the highest suicide risks. Notable gaps were identified in the review literature, and the quality of the included reviews was typically low. The excess risks of mortality and suicide in all mental disorders justify a higher priority for the research, prevention, and treatment of the determinants of premature death in psychiatric patients. PMID:24890068

  16. Risks of all-cause and suicide mortality in mental disorders: a meta-review

    PubMed Central

    Chesney, Edward; Goodwin, Guy M; Fazel, Seena

    2014-01-01

    A meta-review, or review of systematic reviews, was conducted to explore the risks of all-cause and suicide mortality in major mental disorders. A systematic search generated 407 relevant reviews, of which 20 reported mortality risks in 20 different mental disorders and included over 1.7 million patients and over a quarter of a million deaths. All disorders had an increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with the general population, and many had mortality risks larger than or comparable to heavy smoking. Those with the highest all-cause mortality ratios were substance use disorders and anorexia nervosa. These higher mortality risks translate into substantial (10-20 years) reductions in life expectancy. Borderline personality disorder, anorexia nervosa, depression and bipolar disorder had the highest suicide risks. Notable gaps were identified in the review literature, and the quality of the included reviews was typically low. The excess risks of mortality and suicide in all mental disorders justify a higher priority for the research, prevention, and treatment of the determinants of premature death in psychiatric patients. PMID:24890068

  17. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance--United States, 2013. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). Surveillance Summaries. Volume 63, Number SS-4

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kann, Laura; Kinchen, Steve; Shanklin, Shari L.; Flint, Katherine H.; Hawkins, Joseph; Harris, William A.; Lowry, Richard; Olsen, Emily O'Malley; McManus, Tim; Chyen, David; Whittle, Lisa; Taylor, Eboni; Demissie, Zewditu; Brener, Nancy; Thornton, Jemekia; Moore, John; Zaza, Stephanie

    2014-01-01

    Problem: Priority health-risk behaviors contribute to the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among youth and adults. Population-based data on these behaviors at the national, state, and local levels can help monitor the effectiveness of public health interventions designed to protect and promote the health of youth nationwide. Reporting…

  18. Apolipoprotein E Epsilon 4 Allele Interacts with Sex and Cognitive Status to Influence All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Among US Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Beydoun, May A.; Beydoun, Hind A.; Kaufman, Jay S.; An, Yang; Resnick, Susan M.; O'Brien, Richard; Ferrucci, Luigi; Zonderman, Alan B.

    2012-01-01

    Background Apolipoprotein E ε4 (ApoE4 carrier) status, sex and cognitive impairment may interact to affect all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk. Objectives To confirm associations of ApoE4 carrier status, sex and time-dependent cognitive status with mortality risk, and investigate these associations' joint effects in a cohort of community-dwelling US adults. Design & Setting Data from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging were used. Participants Of n=3,047 (First-visit Age:17–98y, 60.1% men), we selected a sample with complete genetic data and with ≥1 visit at age≥50y (n=1,461). Measurements Time-to-death from all, cardiovascular or non-cardiovascular causes. Results Survival probability was lower for ApoE4 carriers, particularly at oldest ages. Cox proportional hazards model for all-cause mortality yielded a hazard ratio (HR) for ApoE4 carrier vs. non-carriers of 1.31,95%CI:1.02–1.68. This association was also found for cardiovascular mortality. Time-dependent all-cause dementia (HR=1.73, 95%CI:1.33–2.26) and mild cognitive impairment (HR=1.95,95%CI:1.42–2.67) increased all-cause mortality risk, associations also detected for non-cardiovascular mortality. When individuals were free of cognitive impairment, a dose-response relationship with ε4 alleles was found for all-cause mortality (HR=1.40,95%CI:0.94–2.07 for 1 ε4, and HR=2.61; 95%CI:1.12–6.07 for 2 ε4). After Alzheimer's Disease-type (AD) dementia onset, carrying only 1 ε4 allele increased all-cause mortality risk by ~77% compared to non-carriers. ApoE4 carrier status increased all-cause mortality risk in men and interacted with time-dependent AD to increase the risk of this outcome (RERI=2.15; 95% CI:1.22–3.07). Conclusion We found that ApoE4 carrier status increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks, while interacting with sex and time-dependent AD status to affect all-cause mortality. PMID:23581910

  19. Changes in self-perceived economic satisfaction and mortality at old ages: evidence from a survey of middle-aged and elderly adults in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Lee, Miaw-Chwen; Huang, Nicole

    2015-04-01

    Experiencing a low socioeconomic status (SES) throughout the life course has been reported to be correlated with poor health outcomes. Several studies have suggested that income, wealth, and perceptions of economic status are associated with increased risk of death among elderly people. Few studies have investigated the association between lifetime SES and mortality among elderly adults. The analysis in this study was based on 2310 elderly adults for whom SES data from the four phases of the longitudinal survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly in Taiwan (1989, 1993, 1996, and 1999) were available, and who were alive in 1999. The SES measures included in the analysis were annual income, the household wealth, and the self-perceived economic satisfaction. A group-based trajectory modelling approach was employed to create SES trajectories. Cox proportional hazard models were employed to examine the association between SES trajectories and 8-year all-cause mortality (1999-2007). Irrespective of whether income, wealth, or self-perceived economic satisfaction was used, the elderly adults with consistently low SES trajectory throughout early old age were independently and significantly associated with higher hazards of mortality than were those in a consistently high SES trajectory. Downward or upward mobility of income and wealth were associated with increased hazard of mortality. However, decreased self-perceived economic satisfaction was not significantly associated with increased hazard of mortality. According to the results, the strong distinction between trajectory patterns of income, wealth, and self-perceived economic satisfaction among elderly adults indicate that neither should be overlooked when investigating the role of SES mobility in mortality. Retirement policies or strategies for maintaining and promoting favorable SES in early old age may benefit the health of elderly adults later in life. PMID:25656417

  20. Educational Differences in U.S. Adult Mortality: A Cohort Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Masters, Ryan K.; Hummer, Robert A.; Powers, Daniel A.

    2012-01-01

    We use hierarchical cross-classified random-effects models to simultaneously measure age, period, and cohort patterns of mortality risk between 1986 and 2006 for non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black men and women with less than a high school education, a high school education, and more than a high school education. We examine all-cause…

  1. Estimating mortality rates of adult fish from entrainment through the propellers of river towboats

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutreuter, S.; Dettmers, J.M.; Wahl, David H.

    2003-01-01

    We developed a method to estimate mortality rates of adult fish caused by entrainment through the propellers of commercial towboats operating in river channels. The method combines trawling while following towboats (to recover a fraction of the kills) and application of a hydrodynamic model of diffusion (to estimate the fraction of the total kills collected in the trawls). The sampling problem is unusual and required quantifying relatively rare events. We first examined key statistical properties of the entrainment mortality rate estimators using Monte Carlo simulation, which demonstrated that a design-based estimator and a new ad hoc estimator are both unbiased and converge to the true value as the sample size becomes large. Next, we estimated the entrainment mortality rates of adult fishes in Pool 26 of the Mississippi River and the Alton Pool of the Illinois River, where we observed kills that we attributed to entrainment. Our estimates of entrainment mortality rates were 2.52 fish/km of towboat travel (80% confidence interval, 1.00-6.09 fish/km) for gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum, 0.13 fish/km (0.00-0.41) for skipjack herring Alosa chrysochloris, and 0.53 fish/km (0.00-1.33) for both shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus and smallmouth buffalo Ictiobus bubalus. Our approach applies more broadly to commercial vessels operating in confined channels, including other large rivers and intracoastal waterways.

  2. Policing and risk of overdose mortality in urban neighborhoods

    PubMed Central

    Bohnert, Amy S.B.; Nandi, Arijit; Tracy, Melissa; Cerdá, Magdalena; Tardiff, Kenneth J; Vlahov, David; Galea, Sandro

    2010-01-01

    Background Accidental drug overdose is a major cause of mortality among drug users. Fears of police arrest may deter witnesses of drug overdose from calling for medical help and may be a determinant of drug overdose mortality. To our knowledge, no studies have empirically assessed the relation between levels of policing and drug overdose mortality. We hypothesized that levels of police activity, congruent with fears of police arrest, are positively associated with drug overdose mortality. Methods We assembled cross-sectional time-series data for 74 New York City (NYC) police precincts over the period 1990–1999 using data collected from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner of NYC, the NYC Police Department, and the US Census Bureau. Misdemeanor arrest rate—reflecting police activity—was our primary independent variable of interest, and overdose rate our primary dependent variable of interest. Results The mean overdose rate per 100,000 among police precincts in NYC between 1990 and 1999 was 10.8 (standard deviation = 10.0). In a Bayesian hierarchical model that included random spatial and temporal effects and a space-time interaction, the misdemeanor arrest rate per 1,000 was associated with higher overdose mortality (posterior median = 0.003, 95% Credible Interval = 0.001, 0.005) after adjustment for overall drug use in the precinct and demographic characteristics. Conclusions Levels of police activity in a precinct are associated with accidental drug overdose mortality. Future research should examine aspects of police-community interactions that contribute to higher overdose mortality. PMID:20727684

  3. Diabetes and Cause-Specific Mortality in a Prospective Cohort of One Million U.S. Adults

    PubMed Central

    Campbell, Peter T.; Newton, Christina C.; Patel, Alpa V.; Jacobs, Eric J.; Gapstur, Susan M.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Diabetes is a major predictor of death from heart disease and stroke; its impact on nonvascular mortality, including specific cancers, is less understood. We examined the association of diabetes with cause-specific mortality, including deaths from specific cancers. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A prospective cohort of 1,053,831 U.S. adults, without cancer at baseline, enrolled in the Cancer Prevention Study-II in 1982 and was followed for mortality until December 2008. At baseline, participants completed a self-administered questionnaire that included information on diabetes, smoking, physical activity, height, and weight. Multivariable-adjusted relative risks (RRs) (95% CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS During 26 years of follow-up, 243,051 men and 222,109 women died. In multivariable models that controlled for age, BMI, and other variables, diabetes was associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (women RR 1.90 [95% CI 1.87–1.93]; men 1.73 [1.70–1.75]). Among women, diabetes was associated with higher risk of death from cancers of the liver (1.40 [1.05–1.86]), pancreas (1.31 [1.14–1.51]), endometrium (1.33 [1.08–1.65]), colon (1.18 [1.04–1.33]), and breast (1.16 [1.03–1.29]). Among men, diabetes was associated with risk of death from cancers of the breast (4.20 [2.20–8.04]), liver (2.26 [1.89–2.70]), oral cavity and pharynx (1.44 [1.07–1.94]), pancreas (1.40 [1.23–1.59]), bladder (1.22 [1.01–1.47]), colon (1.15 [1.03–1.29]), and (inversely) prostate (0.88 [0.79–0.97]). Diabetes was also associated with higher risks of death involving the circulatory system, respiratory system, digestive system, genitourinary system, and external causes/accidental deaths. CONCLUSIONS Diabetes is associated with higher risk of death for many diseases, including several specific forms of cancer. PMID:22699290

  4. Air Pollution and Mortality in Seven Million Adults: The Dutch Environmental Longitudinal Study (DUELS)

    PubMed Central

    Marra, Marten; Ameling, Caroline B.; Hoek, Gerard; Beelen, Rob; de Hoogh, Kees; Breugelmans, Oscar; Kruize, Hanneke; Janssen, Nicole A.H.; Houthuijs, Danny

    2015-01-01

    Hoogh K, Breugelmans O, Kruize H, Janssen NA, Houthuijs D. 2015. Air pollution and mortality in seven million adults: the Dutch Environmental Longitudinal Study (DUELS). Environ Health Perspect 123:697–704; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408254 PMID:25760672

  5. Blood-Borne Biomarkers of Mortality Risk: Systematic Review of Cohort Studies

    PubMed Central

    Barron, Evelyn; Lara, Jose; White, Martin; Mathers, John C.

    2015-01-01

    Background Lifespan and the proportion of older people in the population are increasing, with far reaching consequences for the social, political and economic landscape. Unless accompanied by an increase in health span, increases in age-related diseases will increase the burden on health care resources. Intervention studies to enhance healthy ageing need appropriate outcome measures, such as blood-borne biomarkers, which are easily obtainable, cost-effective, and widely accepted. To date there have been no systematic reviews of blood-borne biomarkers of mortality. Aim To conduct a systematic review to identify available blood-borne biomarkers of mortality that can be used to predict healthy ageing post-retirement. Methods Four databases (Medline, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science) were searched. We included prospective cohort studies with a minimum of two years follow up and data available for participants with a mean age of 50 to 75 years at baseline. Results From a total of 11,555 studies identified in initial searches, 23 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Fifty-one blood borne biomarkers potentially predictive of mortality risk were identified. In total, 20 biomarkers were associated with mortality risk. Meta-analyses of mortality risk showed significant associations with C-reactive protein (Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality 1.42, p<0.001; Cancer-mortality 1.62, p<0.009; CVD-mortality 1.31, p = 0.033), N Terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide (Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality 1.43, p<0.001; CHD-mortality 1.58, p<0.001; CVD-mortality 1.67, p<0.001) and white blood cell count (Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality 1.36, p = 0.001). There was also evidence that brain natriuretic peptide, cholesterol fractions, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, fibrinogen, granulocytes, homocysteine, intercellular adhesion molecule-1, neutrophils, osteoprotegerin, procollagen type III aminoterminal peptide, serum uric acid, soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor

  6. Space-Time Analysis to Identify Areas at Risk of Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Poliany C. O.; Santos, Emerson S.; Ignotti, Eliane; Hacon, Sandra S.

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed at identifying areas that were at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in residents aged 45 years or older of the cities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande between 2009 and 2011. We conducted an ecological study of mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. Mortality rates were calculated for each census tract by the Local Empirical Bayes estimator. High- and low-risk clusters were identified by retrospective space-time scans for each year using the Poisson probability model. We defined the year and month as the temporal analysis unit and the census tracts as the spatial analysis units adjusted by age and sex. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the socioeconomic and environmental variables by risk classification. High-risk clusters showed higher income ratios than low-risk clusters, as did temperature range and atmospheric particulate matter. Low-risk clusters showed higher humidity than high-risk clusters. The Eastern region of Várzea Grande and the central region of Cuiabá were identified as areas at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in individuals aged 45 years or older. High mortality risk was associated with socioeconomic and environmental factors. More high-risk clusters were observed at the end of the dry season. PMID:26504836

  7. Does the Hispanic Paradox in U.S. Adult Mortality Extend to Disability?

    PubMed Central

    Hummer, Robert A.; Chiu, Chi-Tsun; González-González, César; Wong, Rebeca

    2015-01-01

    Studies consistently document a Hispanic paradox in U.S. adult mortality, whereby Hispanics have similar or lower mortality rates than non-Hispanic whites despite lower socioeconomic status. This study extends this line of inquiry to disability, especially among foreign-born Hispanics, since their advantaged mortality seemingly should be paired with health advantages more generally. We also assess whether the paradox extends to U.S.-born Hispanics to evaluate the effect of nativity. We calculate multistate life tables of life expectancy with disability to assess whether racial/ethnic and nativity differences in the length of disability-free life parallel differences in overall life expectancy. Our results document a Hispanic paradox in mortality for foreign-born and U.S.-born Hispanics. However, Hispanics’ low mortality rates are not matched by low disability rates. Their disability rates are substantially higher than those of non-Hispanic whites and generally similar to those of non-Hispanic blacks. The result is a protracted period of disabled life expectancy for Hispanics, both foreign- and U.S.-born. PMID:25821283

  8. Human-caused mortality influences spatial population dynamics: pumas in landscapes with varying mortality risks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Newby, Jesse R.; Mills, L. Scott; Ruth, Toni K.; Pletscher, Daniel H.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Quigley, Howard B.; Murphy, Kerry M.; DeSimone, Rich

    2013-01-01

    An understanding of how stressors affect dispersal attributes and the contribution of local populations to multi-population dynamics are of immediate value to basic and applied ecology. Puma (Puma concolor) populations are expected to be influenced by inter-population movements and susceptible to human-induced source–sink dynamics. Using long-term datasets we quantified the contribution of two puma populations to operationally define them as sources or sinks. The puma population in the Northern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (NGYE) was largely insulated from human-induced mortality by Yellowstone National Park. Pumas in the western Montana Garnet Mountain system were exposed to greater human-induced mortality, which changed over the study due to the closure of a 915 km2 area to hunting. The NGYE’s population growth depended on inter-population movements, as did its ability to act as a source to the larger region. The heavily hunted Garnet area was a sink with a declining population until the hunting closure, after which it became a source with positive intrinsic growth and a 16× increase in emigration. We also examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of individual dispersal attributes (emigration, dispersal distance, establishment success) of subadult pumas (N = 126). Human-caused mortality was found to negatively impact all three dispersal components. Our results demonstrate the influence of human-induced mortality on not only within population vital rates, but also inter-population vital rates, affecting the magnitude and mechanisms of local population’s contribution to the larger metapopulation.

  9. Development of a Prognostic Model for Six-Month Mortality in Older Adults with Declining Health

    PubMed Central

    Han, Paul K.J.; Lee, Minjung; Reeve, Bryce B.; Mariotto, Angela B.; Wang, Zhuoqiao; Hays, Ron D.; Yabroff, K. Robin; Topor, Marie; Feuer, Eric J.

    2011-01-01

    Context Estimation of six-month prognosis is essential in hospice referral decisions, but accurate, evidence-based tools to assist in this task are lacking. Objectives To develop a new prognostic model, the Patient-Reported Outcome Mortality Prediction Tool (PROMPT), for six-month mortality in community-dwelling elderly patients. Methods We used data from the Medicare Health Outcomes Survey (MHOS) linked to vital status information. Respondents were 65 years old or older, with self-reported declining health over the past year (n=21,870), identified from four MHOS cohorts (1998–2000, 1999–2001, 2000–2002, and 2001–2003). A logistic regression model was derived to predict six-month mortality, using sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL), ascertained by measures of activities of daily living (ADLs) and the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36®); k-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate model performance, which was compared to existing prognostic tools. Results The PROMPT incorporated 11 variables including four HRQOL domains: general health perceptions, ADLs, social functioning, and energy/fatigue. The model demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic=0.75) and calibration. Overall diagnostic accuracy was superior to existing tools. At cutpoints of 10%–70%, estimated six-month mortality risk sensitivity and specificity ranged from 0.8%–83.4% and 51.1%–99.9%, respectively, and positive likelihood ratios at all mortality risk cut-points ≥40% exceeded 5.0. Corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 23.1%–64.1% and 85.3%–94.5%. Over 50% of patients with estimated six-month mortality risk ≥30% died within 12 months. Conclusion The PROMPT, a new prognostic model incorporating HRQOL, demonstrates promising performance and potential value for hospice referral decisions. More work is needed to evaluate the model. PMID:22071167

  10. Patients' perceptions of mortality risk for localized prostate cancer vary markedly depending on their treatment strategy.

    PubMed

    Kendel, Friederike; Helbig, Lukas; Neumann, Konrad; Herden, Jan; Stephan, Carsten; Schrader, Mark; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

    2016-08-15

    Treatment choice for localized prostate cancer (PCa) is a controversial issue, and mortality risk is probably the most decisive factor in this regard. The study aimed to compare prostate-cancer-specific mortality risk estimates for different treatment options assigned by patients managed with active surveillance (AS), radical prostatectomy (RP) and patients who had discontinued AS (DAS). Patients initially managed with AS or RP (N = 370) were matched according to length of therapy. All patients completed mailed questionnaires assessing their mortality risk estimates (in %) and prostate-cancer-specific anxiety. Differences in risk estimates among the three treatment groups were analyzed using ANOVA, relationships of clinical and psychosocial variables with risk estimates using standard multiple regression. In all treatment groups, the prostate- cancer-specific mortality risk was overestimated. This applied whether it was the patient's own treatment or the alternative treatment option. RP patients assigned a mortality risk to AS that was almost three times higher than that assigned to RP (50.9 ± 25.0 vs. 17.8 ± 19.7, d = 1.48; p < 0.001). Anxiety was significantly associated with risk estimates for AS (p = 0.008) and RP (p = 0.001). Compared with clinical data that suggest that the prostate-cancer-specific mortality risk for AS is low and does not significantly differ from that for RP, patients strongly overestimated the mortality risk. This was most markedly so in RP patients, who drastically overestimated the benefits of RP compared to the risk of AS. This overestimation could increase overtreatment and should therefore be corrected by better patient education. PMID:27038059

  11. Host Immunological Factors Enhancing Mortality of Young Adults during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic

    PubMed Central

    McAuley, Julie L.; Kedzierska, Katherine; Brown, Lorena E.; Shanks, G. Dennis

    2015-01-01

    During the 1918 influenza pandemic, healthy young adults unusually succumbed to infection and were considered more vulnerable than young children and the elderly. The pathogenesis of this pandemic in the young adult population remains poorly understood. As this population is normally the least likely to die during seasonal influenza outbreaks, thought to be due to their appropriate pre-existing and robust immune responses protecting them from infection, we sought to review existing literature for immunological reasons for excessive mortality during the 1918 pandemic. We propose the novelty of the H1N1 pandemic virus to an H1N1 naïve immune system, the virulence of this virus, and dysfunctional host inflammatory and immunological responses, shaped by past influenza infections could have each contributed to their overall susceptibility. Additionally, in the young adult population, pre-exposure to past influenza infection of different subtypes, such as a H3N8 virus, during their infancy in 1889–1892, may have shaped immunological responses and enhanced vulnerability via humoral immunity effects with cross-reactive or non-neutralizing antibodies; excessive and/or ineffective cellular immunity from memory T lymphocytes; and innate dysfunctional inflammation. Multiple mechanisms likely contributed to the increased young adult mortality in 1918 and are the focus of this review. PMID:26347742

  12. Trials in adult critical care that show increased mortality of the new intervention: Inevitable or preventable mishaps?

    PubMed

    Russell, James A; Williams, Mark D

    2016-12-01

    Several promising therapies assessed in the adult critically ill in large, multicenter randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were associated with significantly increased mortality in the intervention arms. Our hypothesis was that there would be wide ranges in sponsorship (industry or not), type(s) of intervention(s), use of DSMBs, presence of interim analyses and early stopping rules, absolute risk increase (ARI), and whether or not adequate prior proof-of-principle Phase II studies were done of RCTs that found increased mortality rates of the intervention compared to control groups. We reviewed RCTs that showed a statistically significant increased mortality rate in the intervention compared to control group(s). We recorded source of sponsorship, sample sizes, types of interventions, mortality rates, ARI (as well as odds ratios, relative risks and number needed to harm), whether there were pre-specified interim analyses and early stopping rules, and whether or not there were prior proof-of-principle (also known as Phase II) RCTs. Ten RCTs (four industry sponsored) of many interventions (high oxygen delivery, diaspirin cross-linked hemoglobin, growth hormone, methylprednisolone, hetastarch, high-frequency oscillation ventilation, intensive insulin, NOS inhibition, and beta-2 adrenergic agonist, TNF-α receptor) included 19,126 patients and were associated with wide ranges of intervention versus control group mortality rates (25.7-59 %, mean 29.9 vs 17-49 %, mean 25 %, respectively) yielding ARIs of 2.6-29 % (mean 5 %). All but two RCTs had pre-specified interim analyses, and seven RCTs were stopped early. All RCTs were preceded by published proof-of-principle RCT(s), two by the same group. Seven interventions (except diaspirin cross-linked hemoglobin and the NOS inhibitor) were available for use clinically at the time of the pivotal RCT. Common, clinically available interventions used in the critically ill were associated with increased mortality in large

  13. Body Composition and Mortality after Adult Lung Transplantation in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Singer, Jonathan P.; Peterson, Eric R.; Snyder, Mark E.; Katz, Patricia P.; Golden, Jeffrey A.; D’Ovidio, Frank; Bacchetta, Matthew; Sonett, Joshua R.; Kukreja, Jasleen; Shah, Lori; Robbins, Hilary; Van Horn, Kristin; Shah, Rupal J.; Diamond, Joshua M.; Wickersham, Nancy; Sun, Li; Hays, Steven; Arcasoy, Selim M.; Palmer, Scott M.; Ware, Lorraine B.; Christie, Jason D.

    2014-01-01

    Rationale: Obesity and underweight are contraindications to lung transplantation based on their associations with mortality in studies performed before implementation of the lung allocation score (LAS)–based organ allocation system in the United States Objectives: To determine the associations of body mass index (BMI) and plasma leptin levels with survival after lung transplantation. Methods: We used multivariable-adjusted regression models to examine associations between BMI and 1-year mortality in 9,073 adults who underwent lung transplantation in the United States between May 2005 and June 2011, and plasma leptin and mortality in 599 Lung Transplant Outcomes Group study participants. We measured body fat and skeletal muscle mass using whole-body dual X-ray absorptiometry in 142 adult lung transplant candidates. Measurements and Main Results: Adjusted mortality rates were similar among normal weight (BMI 18.5–24.9 kg/m2), overweight (BMI 25.0–29.9), and class I obese (BMI 30–34.9) transplant recipients. Underweight (BMI < 18.5) was associated with a 35% increased rate of death (95% confidence interval, 10–66%). Class II–III obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) was associated with a nearly twofold increase in mortality (hazard ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.3–2.8). Higher leptin levels were associated with increased mortality after transplant surgery performed without cardiopulmonary bypass (P for interaction = 0.03). A BMI greater than or equal to 30 kg/m2 was 26% sensitive and 97% specific for total body fat–defined obesity. Conclusions: A BMI of 30.0–34.9 kg/m2 is not associated with 1-year mortality after lung transplantation in the LAS era, perhaps because of its low sensitivity for obesity. The association between leptin and mortality suggests the need to validate alternative methods to measure obesity in candidates for lung transplantation. A BMI greater than or equal to 30 kg/m2 may no longer contraindicate lung transplantation. PMID

  14. Fitness versus Fatness: Which Influences Health and Mortality Risk the Most?

    PubMed

    Gaesser, Glenn A; Tucker, Wesley J; Jarrett, Catherine L; Angadi, Siddhartha S

    2015-01-01

    Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a more powerful predictor of mortality than body mass index or adiposity, and improving CRF is more important than losing body fat for reducing risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. Data on reduced morbidity and mortality associated with increased CRF are strong and consistent. By contrast, data on intentional weight loss and mortality are uncertain, and weight loss-induced risk factor modification may be largely transient. Because weight loss maintenance is poor and considering the health risks associated with chronic weight instability ( "yo-yo" dieting), we propose an alternative paradigm that focuses on improving CRF rather than reducing body weight. We contend that this is a safer alternative for management of obesity and the associated comorbidities. Exercise adherence may improve if clinicians emphasized to their patients the importance of CRF compared with weight loss in improving health and reducing the risk of chronic diseases. PMID:26166058

  15. Assessing uncertainty in published risk estimates using hexavalent chromium and lung cancer mortality as an example

    EPA Science Inventory

    Introduction: The National Research Council recommended quantitative evaluation of uncertainty in effect estimates for risk assessment. This analysis considers uncertainty across model forms and model parameterizations with hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] and lung cancer mortality a...

  16. The Life-Long Mortality Risks Of World War II Experiences

    PubMed Central

    Elder, Glen H.; Brown, James Scott; Martin, Leslie R.; Friedman, Howard W.

    2009-01-01

    Objective This longitudinal study of American veterans investigated the mortality risks of five World War II military experiences (i.e., combat exposure) and their variation among veterans in the post-war years. Methods The male subjects (N=854) are members of the Stanford-Terman study, and 38 percent served in World War II. Cox models (proportional hazards regressions) compared the relative mortality risk associated with each military experience. Results Overseas duty, service in the Pacific and exposure to combat significantly increased the mortality risks of veterans in the study. Individual differences in education, mental health in 1950, and age at entry into the military, as well as personality factors made no difference in these results. Conclusions A gradient is observable such that active duty on the home front, followed by overseas duty, service in the Pacific, and combat exposure markedly increased the risk of relatively early mortality. Potential linking mechanisms include heavy drinking. PMID:20161074

  17. Mortality Resulting From Congenital Heart Disease Among Children and Adults in the United States, 1999 to 2006

    PubMed Central

    Gilboa, Suzanne M.; Salemi, Jason L.; Nembhard, Wendy N.; Fixler, David E.; Correa, Adolfo

    2016-01-01

    Background Previous reports suggest that mortality resulting from congenital heart disease (CHD) among infants and young children has been decreasing. There is little population-based information on CHD mortality trends and patterns among older children and adults. Methods and Results We used data from death certificates filed in the United States from 1999 to 2006 to calculate annual CHD mortality by age at death, race-ethnicity, and sex. To calculate mortality rates for individuals ≥1 year of age, population counts from the US Census were used in the denominator; for infant mortality, live birth counts were used. From 1999 to 2006, there were 41 494 CHD-related deaths and 27 960 deaths resulting from CHD (age-standardized mortality rates, 1.78 and 1.20 per 100 000, respectively). During this period, mortality resulting from CHD declined 24.1% overall. Mortality resulting from CHD significantly declined among all race-ethnicities studied. However, disparities persisted; overall and among infants, mortality resulting from CHD was consistently higher among non-Hispanic blacks compared with non-Hispanic whites. Infant mortality accounted for 48.1% of all mortality resulting from CHD; among those who survived the first year of life, 76.1% of deaths occurred during adulthood (≥18 years of age). Conclusions CHD mortality continued to decline among both children and adults; however, differences between race-ethnicities persisted. A large proportion of CHD-related mortality occurred during infancy, although significant CHD mortality occurred during adulthood, indicating the need for adult CHD specialty management. PMID:21098447

  18. Infant mortality, season of birth and the health of older Puerto Rican adults.

    PubMed

    McEniry, Mary

    2011-03-01

    The increasing prevalence of heart disease and diabetes among aging populations in low and middle income countries leads to questions regarding the degree to which endogenous early life exposures (exposures in utero) are important determinants of these health conditions. We devised a test using infant mortality (IMR) to verify if season of birth is a good indicator of early life (in utero) conditions that precipitate adult onset of disease. We linked annual IMR at the municipality (municipio) level from the late 1920s to early 1940s with individual birth year and place using a representative sample of older Puerto Rican adults (n = 1447) from the Puerto Rican Elderly: Health Conditions (PREHCO) study. We estimated the effects of season of birth on adult heart disease and diabetes for all respondents and then for respondents according to whether they were born when IMR was lower or higher, controlling for age, gender, obesity, respondent's educational level, adult behavior (smoking and exercise) and other early life exposures (childhood health, knee height and childhood socioeconomic status (SES)). The pattern of effects suggests that season of birth reflects endogenous causes: (1) odds of heart disease and diabetes were strong and significant for those born during the lean season in years when IMR was lower; (2) effects remained consistent even after controlling for other childhood conditions and adult behavior; but (3) no seasonality effects on adult health for adults born when IMR was higher. We conclude that in this population of older Puerto Rican adults there is continued support that the timing of adverse endogenous (in utero) conditions such as poor nutrition and infectious diseases is associated with adult heart disease and diabetes. It will be important to test the validity of these findings in other similar populations in the developing world. PMID:20980087

  19. Morbidity, mortality, and categorization of the risk of perioperative complications in lung cancer patients*

    PubMed Central

    Stanzani, Fabiana; Paisani, Denise de Moraes; de Oliveira, Anderson; de Souza, Rodrigo Caetano; Perfeito, João Aléssio Juliano; Faresin, Sonia Maria

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine morbidity and mortality rates by risk category in accordance with the American College of Chest Physicians guidelines, to determine what role pulmonary function tests play in this categorization process, and to identify risk factors for perioperative complications (PCs). METHODS: This was a historical cohort study based on preoperative and postoperative data collected for cases of lung cancer diagnosed or suspected between 2001 and 2010. RESULTS: Of the 239 patients evaluated, only 13 (5.4%) were classified as being at high risk of PCs. Predicted postoperative FEV1 (FEV1ppo) was sufficient to define the risk level in 156 patients (65.3%); however, cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) was necessary for identifying those at high risk. Lung resection was performed in 145 patients. Overall morbidity and mortality rates were similar to those reported in other studies. However, morbidity and mortality rates for patients at an acceptable risk of PCs were 31.6% and 4.3%, respectively, whereas those for patients at high risk were 83.3% and 33.3%. Advanced age, COPD, lobe resection, and lower FEV1ppo were correlated with PCs. CONCLUSIONS: Although spirometry was sufficient for risk assessment in the majority of the population studied, CPET played a key role in the identification of high-risk patients, among whom the mortality rate was seven times higher than was that observed for those at an acceptable risk of PCs. The risk factors related to PCs coincided with those reported in previous studies. PMID:24626266

  20. Number of Coronary Heart Disease Risk Factors and Mortality in Patients With First Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Canto, John G.; Kiefe, Catarina I.; Rogers, William J.; Peterson, Eric D.; Frederick, Paul D.; French, William J.; Gibson, C. Michael; Pollack, Charles V.; Ornato, Joseph P.; Zalenski, Robert J.; Penney, Jan; Tiefenbrunn, Alan J.; Greenland, Philip

    2013-01-01

    Context Few studies have examined the association between the number of coronary heart disease risk factors and outcomes of acute myocardial infarction in community practice. Objective To determine the association between the number of coronary heart disease risk factors in patients with first myocardial infarction and hospital mortality. Design Observational study from the National Registry of Myocardial Infarction, 1994-2006. Patients We examined the presence and absence of 5 major traditional coronary heart disease risk factors (hypertension, smoking, dyslipidemia, diabetes, and family history of coronary heart disease) and hospital mortality among 542 008 patients with first myocardial infarction and without prior cardiovascular disease. Main Outcome Measure All-cause in-hospital mortality. Results A majority (85.6%) of patients who presented with initial myocardial infarction had at least 1 of the 5 coronary heart disease risk factors, and 14.4% had none of the 5 risk factors. Age varied inversely with the number of coronary heart disease risk factors, from a mean age of 71.5 years with 0 risk factors to 56.7 years with 5 risk factors (P for trend <.001). The total number of in-hospital deaths for all causes was 50 788. Unadjusted in-hospital mortality rates were 14.9%, 10.9%, 7.9%, 5.3%, 4.2%, and 3.6% for patients with 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 risk factors, respectively. After adjusting for age and other clinical factors, there was an inverse association between the number of coronary heart disease risk factors and hospital mortality adjusted odds ratio (1.54; 95% CI, 1.23-1.94) among individuals with 0 vs 5 risk factors. This association was consistent among several age strata and important patient subgroups. Conclusion Among patients with incident acute myocardial infarction without prior cardiovascular disease, in-hospital mortality was inversely related to the number of coronary heart disease risk factors. PMID:22089719

  1. Mortality Risk amongst Nursing Home Residents Evacuated after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident: A Retrospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Nomura, Shuhei; Gilmour, Stuart; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Yoneoka, Daisuke; Sugimoto, Amina; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Kami, Masahiro; Shibuya, Kenji

    2013-01-01

    Background Safety of evacuation is of paramount importance in disaster planning for elderly people; however, little effort has been made to investigate evacuation-related mortality risks. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident we conducted a retrospective cohort survival survey of elderly evacuees. Methods A total of 715 residents admitted to five nursing homes in Minamisoma city, Fukushima Prefecture in the five years before 11th March 2011 joined this retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were drawn from facility medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until the end of 2011. The evacuation's impact on mortality was assessed using mortality incidence density and hazard ratios in Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Overall relative mortality risk before and after the earthquake was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.04–3.49). There was a substantial variation in mortality risks across the facilities ranging from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.34–1.76) to 2.88 (95% CI: 1.74–4.76). No meaningful influence of evacuation distance on mortality was observed although the first evacuation from the original facility caused significantly higher mortality than subsequent evacuations, with a hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.07–3.49). Conclusion High mortality, due to initial evacuation, suggests that evacuation of the elderly was not the best life-saving strategy for the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Careful consideration of the relative risks of radiation exposure and the risks and benefits of evacuation is essential. Facility-specific disaster response strategies, including in-site relief and care, may have a strong influence on survival. Where evacuation is necessary, careful planning and coordination with other nursing homes, evacuation sites and government disaster agencies is essential to reduce the risk of mortality. PMID:23555921

  2. Associations of Bowel Movement Frequency with Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality among US Women.

    PubMed

    Ma, Wenjie; Li, Yanping; Heianza, Yoriko; Staller, Kyle D; Chan, Andrew T; Rimm, Eric B; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Qi, Lu

    2016-01-01

    Emerging evidence suggests a potential impact of gastrointestinal function on cardiometabolic risk. Abnormal bowel movements have been related to various cardiovascular risk factors such as dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, and altered metabolism of bile acids and gut microbiota. However, little is known about whether bowel movement frequency affects risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. In the Nurses' Health Study, bowel movement frequency was self-reported in 1982 by 86,289 women free from CVD and cancer. During up to 30 years of follow-up, we documented 7,628 incident CVD cases and 21,084 deaths. After adjustment for dietary intake, lifestyle, medication use, and other risk factors, as compared with women with daily bowel movement, having bowel movements more than once daily was significantly associated with increased risk of CVD (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.21), total mortality (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.12-1.22), and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.07-1.28). With further adjustment for body mass index and diabetes status, the association with total mortality remained significant (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.06-1.15), whereas the associations with incident CVD and cardiovascular mortality were no longer significant. Our results suggest increased bowel movement frequency is a potential risk factor for premature mortality. PMID:27596972

  3. Associations of Bowel Movement Frequency with Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality among US Women

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Wenjie; Li, Yanping; Heianza, Yoriko; Staller, Kyle D.; Chan, Andrew T.; Rimm, Eric B.; Rexrode, Kathryn M.; Qi, Lu

    2016-01-01

    Emerging evidence suggests a potential impact of gastrointestinal function on cardiometabolic risk. Abnormal bowel movements have been related to various cardiovascular risk factors such as dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, and altered metabolism of bile acids and gut microbiota. However, little is known about whether bowel movement frequency affects risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. In the Nurses’ Health Study, bowel movement frequency was self-reported in 1982 by 86,289 women free from CVD and cancer. During up to 30 years of follow-up, we documented 7,628 incident CVD cases and 21,084 deaths. After adjustment for dietary intake, lifestyle, medication use, and other risk factors, as compared with women with daily bowel movement, having bowel movements more than once daily was significantly associated with increased risk of CVD (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05–1.21), total mortality (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.12–1.22), and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.07–1.28). With further adjustment for body mass index and diabetes status, the association with total mortality remained significant (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.06–1.15), whereas the associations with incident CVD and cardiovascular mortality were no longer significant. Our results suggest increased bowel movement frequency is a potential risk factor for premature mortality. PMID:27596972

  4. A photovoice study of older adults' conceptualizations of risk.

    PubMed

    Rush, Kathy L; Murphy, Mary Ann; Kozak, Jean Francois

    2012-12-01

    Risk is a multifaceted and complex concept that mediates quality of life through the balance between risk taking and risk avoidance. Society expects older adults to identify and manage their personal risks yet little is known about the meaning of risk in their daily lives and how they balance the tensions between taking and avoiding risks. Therefore the purpose of this study was to explore how older adults construe risk. A qualitative exploratory study that incorporated photovoice methodology was used. Seventeen older adults, over a weeklong period, took pictures and kept a log of the places, spaces, events, activities, or situations that best represented risk. Subsequently, they participated in a follow-up individual interview. Older adults viewed risk both positively and negatively, judging the saliency of a risk according to criteria that related both to the risk itself and to personal characteristics. Although risk was avoided in specific situations, risk taking was participants' primary approach to risk, which assumed three forms: adaptive, opportunistic, and/or unjustifiable. Contrary to societal views, older adults view risk as constructive and personally relevant, and as something to be taken and need to be supported in risk taking rather than risk avoidance. PMID:22939541

  5. Are passive smoking, air pollution and obesity a greater mortality risk than major radiation incidents?

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Jim T

    2007-01-01

    Background Following a nuclear incident, the communication and perception of radiation risk becomes a (perhaps the) major public health issue. In response to such incidents it is therefore crucial to communicate radiation health risks in the context of other more common environmental and lifestyle risk factors. This study compares the risk of mortality from past radiation exposures (to people who survived the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs and those exposed after the Chernobyl accident) with risks arising from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Methods A comparative assessment of mortality risks from ionising radiation was carried out by estimating radiation risks for realistic exposure scenarios and assessing those risks in comparison with risks from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Results The mortality risk to populations exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident may be no higher than that for other more common risk factors such as air pollution or passive smoking. Radiation exposures experienced by the most exposed group of survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to an average loss of life expectancy significantly lower than that caused by severe obesity or active smoking. Conclusion Population-averaged risks from exposures following major radiation incidents are clearly significant, but may be no greater than those from other much more common environmental and lifestyle factors. This comparative analysis, whilst highlighting inevitable uncertainties in risk quantification and comparison, helps place the potential consequences of radiation exposures in the context of other public health risks. PMID:17407581

  6. Physical activity compensates for increased mortality risk among older people with poor muscle strength.

    PubMed

    Portegijs, E; Rantanen, T; Sipilä, S; Laukkanen, P; Heikkinen, E

    2007-10-01

    The aim of the study was to determine whether habitual physical activity can compensate for the increased mortality risk among older people with poor muscle strength. Mortality was followed up for 10 years after laboratory examination in 558 community dwelling 75- and 80-year-old men and women. Maximal isometric strength of five muscle groups was measured and tertile cut-off points were used to categorize participants. Participants, who reported moderate physical activity for at least 4 h a week, were categorized as physically active and the others as sedentary. High muscle strength and physical activity both protected from mortality, but their effect was not additive. Within each muscle strength tertile, physically active people had a lower mortality risk than sedentary people, the effect being most pronounced among those with lower strength in all muscle groups. A high level of physical activity may thus compensate for the increased mortality associated with low muscle strength. PMID:17166169

  7. Persistently Elevated Serum Interleukin-6 Predicts Mortality Among Adults Receiving Combination Antiretroviral Therapy in Botswana: Results from a Clinical Trial

    PubMed Central

    McDonald, Bethan; Moyo, Sikhulile; Gabaitiri, Lesego; Gaseitsiwe, Simani; Bussmann, Hermann; Koethe, John R.; Musonda, Rosemary; Makhema, Joseph; Novitsky, Vladimir; Marlink, Richard G.; Wester, C. William

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Elevated serum levels of inflammatory biomarkers have been associated with increased mortality and morbidity among HIV-infected individuals receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in European and U.S. cohorts. Few similar data are available from sub-Saharan Africa, where most cART-treated adults reside and the prevalence of advanced immunosuppression and opportunistic infections (OIs) at cART initiation is higher. This was a retrospective nested case-control analysis of clinical trial data from the completed Adult Antiretroviral Treatment and Drug Resistance (“Tshepo”) study, 2002–2007, Gaborone, Botswana. We measured pretreatment serum levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), high sensitivity C-reactive protein, and D-dimer in stored plasma samples from 32 deceased participants (cases) and 64 survivors (controls), matched for age, sex, baseline CD4+ cell count, and plasma HIV-1 RNA. Multivariate conditional logistic regression analyses were used to compare inflammatory biomarker levels, adjusting for pretreatment body mass index (BMI) and the presence of OIs. A total of 37 (5.7%) of 650 patients died on study, for a crude mortality rate of 20.6/1,000 person-years. Of 37 (86%) study participants who died on study 32 were included in this analysis. Causes of death (n=32) included non-AIDS-defining events (31.3%), HIV-related OIs (28.1%), cART/toxicity-related (21.9%), other infectious etiologies (15.6%), and unknown (3.1%). Median time to death was 31 weeks [interquartile range (IQR) 14–64]. Median baseline levels of all three biomarkers were higher in cases compared to matched controls. After adjusting for BMI and the presence of OIs, only baseline and most recent (near time of event) levels of IL-6 remained as significant predictors of all-cause mortality [adjusted OR (aOR)=1.25, 95% CI (1.05–1.48); p=0.012; and aOR=1.48 (1.05–2.09); p=0.027, respectively]. Serum IL-6 levels are important predictors of all-cause mortality in this adult

  8. The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

    PubMed Central

    Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A

    2016-01-01

    Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

  9. Dietary Fiber, Carbohydrate Quality and Quantity, and Mortality Risk of Individuals with Diabetes Mellitus

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Koert N. J.; Beulens, Joline W. J.; van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Sluijs, Ivonne; Spijkerman, Annemieke M. W.; Sluik, Diewertje; Boeing, Heiner; Kaaks, Rudolf; Teucher, Birgit; Dethlefsen, Claus; Overvad, Kim; Tjønneland, Anne; Kyrø, Cecilie; Barricarte, Aurelio; Bendinelli, Benedetta; Krogh, Vittorio; Tumino, Rosario; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Mattiello, Amalia; Nilsson, Peter M.; Orho-Melander, Marju; Rolandsson, Olov; Huerta, José María; Crowe, Francesca; Allen, Naomi; Nöthlings, Ute

    2012-01-01

    Background Dietary fiber, carbohydrate quality and quantity are associated with mortality risk in the general population. Whether this is also the case among diabetes patients is unknown. Objective To assess the associations of dietary fiber, glycemic load, glycemic index, carbohydrate, sugar, and starch intake with mortality risk in individuals with diabetes. Methods This study was a prospective cohort study among 6,192 individuals with confirmed diabetes mellitus (mean age of 57.4 years, and median diabetes duration of 4.4 years at baseline) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at baseline (1992–2000) with validated dietary questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, while adjusting for CVD-related, diabetes-related, and nutritional factors. Results During a median follow-up of 9.2 y, 791 deaths were recorded, 306 due to CVD. Dietary fiber was inversely associated with all-cause mortality risk (adjusted HR per SD increase, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.75–0.91]) and CVD mortality risk (0.76[0.64–0.89]). No significant associations were observed for glycemic load, glycemic index, carbohydrate, sugar, or starch. Glycemic load (1.42[1.07–1.88]), carbohydrate (1.67[1.18–2.37]) and sugar intake (1.53[1.12–2.09]) were associated with an increased total mortality risk among normal weight individuals (BMI≤25 kg/m2; 22% of study population) but not among overweight individuals (P interaction≤0.04). These associations became stronger after exclusion of energy misreporters. Conclusions High fiber intake was associated with a decreased mortality risk. High glycemic load, carbohydrate and sugar intake were associated with an increased mortality risk in normal weight individuals with diabetes. PMID:22927948

  10. Association of socioeconomic and behavioral factors with adult mortality: analysis of data from verbal autopsy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Changes in socioeconomic status, lifestyle and behavioral factors among the urban population in Ethiopia is resulting in a shift in the causes of mortality. We used verbal autopsy data from 2006 to 2009 to measure the association of socioeconomic and behavioral factors with causes of mortality in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods A total of 49,309 deaths from burial surveillance were eligible for verbal autopsy for the years 2006 to 2009. Among these, 10% (4,931) were drawn randomly for verbal autopsy of which 91% (4,494) were adults of age ≥15 years. Verbal autopsies, used to identify causes of death and frequency of risk factors, were completed for 3,709 (83%) of the drawn sample. Results According to the results of the verbal autopsy, non-communicable diseases caused 1,915 (51%) of the total adult deaths, while communicable diseases and injuries caused 1,566 (42%) and 233 (6%) of the deaths respectively. Overall, frequent alcohol (12%) and tobacco consumption (7%) were highly prevalent among the deceased individuals; both because of communicable diseases (HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) as well as due to non-communicable diseases (malignancy, cardiovascular and chronic liver diseases). HIV/AIDS (AOR = 2.14, 95% CI [1.52-3.00], p < 0.001) and chronic liver diseases (AOR = 3.09, 95% CI [1.95-4.89], p < 0.001) were significantly associated with frequent alcohol consumption, while tuberculosis was associated with both frequent alcohol (AOR = 1.61, 95% CI [1.15-2.24], p = 0.005) and tobacco consumption (AOR = 1.67, 95% CI [1.13-2.47], p < 0.010). Having low educational status, being female and being within the age range of 25 to 44 years were positively associated with HIV/AIDS related mortality. Individuals aged 45 years and above were 3 to 6 times more likely to have died due to cardiovascular diseases compared with those within the 15 to 24 years age group. Conclusion The findings from the analysis suggest that public health

  11. Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in adult respiratory failure: Scores for mortality prediction.

    PubMed

    Hsin, Chun-Hsien; Wu, Meng-Yu; Huang, Chung-Chi; Kao, Kuo-Chin; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-06-01

    Despite a potentially effective therapy for adult respiratory failure, a general agreement on venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) has not been reached among institutions due to its invasiveness and high resource usage. To establish consensus on the timing of intervention, large ECMO organizations have published the respiratory extracorporeal membrane oxygenation survival prediction (RESP) score and the ECMOnet score, which allow users to predict hospital mortality for candidates with their pre-ECMO presentations. This study was aimed to test the predictive powers of these published scores in a medium-sized cohort enrolling adults treated with VV-ECMO for acute respiratory failure, and develop an institutional prediction model under the framework of the 3 scores if a superior predictive power could be achieved. This retrospective study included 107 adults who received VV-ECMO for severe acute respiratory failure (a PaO2/FiO2 ratio <70 mm Hg) in a tertiary referral center from 2007 to 2015. Essential demographic and clinical data were collected to calculate the RESP score, the ECMOnet score, and the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score before VV-ECMO. The predictive power of hospital mortality of each score was presented as the area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The multivariate logistic regression was used to develop an institutional prediction model. The surviving to discharge rate was 55% (n = 59). All of the 3 published scores had a real but poor predictive power of hospital mortality in this study. The AUROCs of RESP score, ECMOnet score, and SOFA score were 0.662 (P = 0.004), 0.616 (P = 0.04), and 0.667 (P = 0.003), respectively. An institutional prediction model was established from these score parameters and presented as follows: hospital mortality (Y) = -3.173 + 0.208 × (pre-ECMO SOFA score) + 0.148 × (pre-ECMO mechanical ventilation day) + 1.021

  12. Role of co-trimoxazole prophylaxis in reducing mortality in HIV infected adults being treated for tuberculosis: randomised clinical trial

    PubMed Central

    Mwaba, Peter; Chintu, Chifumbe; Mwinga, Alwyn; Darbyshire, Janet H; Zumla, Alimuddin

    2008-01-01

    Objective To assess the impact of prophylactic oral co-trimoxazole in reducing mortality in HIV positive Zambian adults being treated for pulmonary tuberculosis. Design Double blind placebo controlled randomised clinical trial. Participants Two groups of antiretroviral treatment naive adults with HIV infection: patients newly diagnosed as having tuberculosis and receiving tuberculosis treatment either for the first time or for retreatment after relapse; previously treated patients not receiving treatment. Intervention Oral co-trimoxazole or matching placebo daily. Primary outcome measures Time to death and occurrence of serious adverse events related to study drug. Results 1003 patients were randomised: 835 (416 co-trimoxazole, 419 placebo) were receiving treatment for tuberculosis, 762 (376 co-trimoxazole, 386 placebo) of them newly diagnosed previously untreated patients and 73 (40 co-trimoxazole, 33 placebo) receiving a retreatment regimen; 168 (84 co-trimoxazole, 84 placebo) were not on treatment but had received treatment in the past. Of 835 participants receiving tuberculosis treatment, follow-up information was available for 757, with a total of 1012.6 person years of follow-up. A total of 310 (147 co-trimoxazole, 163 placebo) participants died, corresponding to death rates of 27.3 and 34.4 per 100 person years. In the Cox regression analysis, the hazard ratio for death (co-trimoxazole:placebo) was 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.99). The effect of co-trimoxazole waned with time, possibly owing to falling adherence levels; in a per protocol analysis based on patients who spent at least 90% of their time at risk supplied with study drug, the hazard ratio was 0.65 (0.45 to 0.93). Conclusions Prophylaxis with co-trimoxazole reduces mortality in HIV infected adults with pulmonary tuberculosis. Co-trimoxazole was generally safe and well tolerated. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15281875. PMID:18617486

  13. Sleep Duration and the Risk of Mortality From Stroke in Japan: The Takayama Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Kawachi, Toshiaki; Wada, Keiko; Nakamura, Kozue; Tsuji, Michiko; Tamura, Takashi; Konishi, Kie; Nagata, Chisato

    2016-01-01

    Background Few studies have assessed the associations between sleep duration and stroke subtypes. We examined whether sleep duration is associated with mortality from total stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke in a population-based cohort of Japanese men and women. Methods Subjects included 12 875 men and 15 021 women aged 35 years or older in 1992, who were followed until 2008. The outcome variable was stroke death (ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and total stroke). Results During follow-up, 611 stroke deaths (354 from ischemic stroke, 217 from hemorrhagic stroke, and 40 from undetermined stroke) were identified. Compared with 7 h of sleep, ≥9 h of sleep was significantly associated with an increased risk of total stroke and ischemic stroke mortality after controlling for covariates. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were 1.51 (95% CI, 1.16–1.97) and 1.65 (95% CI, 1.16–2.35) for total stroke mortality and ischemic stroke mortality, respectively. Short sleep duration (≤6 h of sleep) was associated with a decreased risk of mortality from total stroke (HR 0.77; 95% CI, 0.59–1.01), although this association was of borderline significance (P = 0.06). The trends for total stroke and ischemic stroke mortality were also significant (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.0002, respectively). There was a significant risk reduction of hemorrhagic stroke mortality for ≤6 h of sleep as compared with 7 h of sleep (HR 0.64; 95% CI, 0.42–0.98; P for trend = 0.08). The risk reduction was pronounced for men (HR 0.31; 95% CI, 0.16–0.64). Conclusions Data suggest that longer sleep duration is associated with increased mortality from total and ischemic stroke. Short sleep duration may be associated with a decreased risk of mortality from hemorrhagic stroke in men. PMID:26521720

  14. Socio-Ecological Risk Factors for Prime-Age Adult Death in Two Coastal Areas of Vietnam

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Deok Ryun; Ali, Mohammad; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Wierzba, Thomas F.

    2014-01-01

    Background Hierarchical spatial models enable the geographic and ecological analysis of health data thereby providing useful information for designing effective health interventions. In this study, we used a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to evaluate mortality data in Vietnam. The model enabled identification of socio-ecological risk factors and generation of risk maps to better understand the causes and geographic implications of prime-age (15 to less than 45 years) adult death. Methods and Findings The study was conducted in two sites: Nha Trang and Hue in Vietnam. The study areas were split into 500×500 meter cells to define neighborhoods. We first extracted socio-demographic data from population databases of the two sites, and then aggregated the data by neighborhood. We used spatial hierarchical model that borrows strength from neighbors for evaluating risk factors and for creating spatially smoothed risk map after adjusting for neighborhood level covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure was used to estimate the parameters. Male mortality was more than twice the female mortality. The rates also varied by age and sex. The most frequent cause of mortality was traffic accidents and drowning for men and traffic accidents and suicide for women. Lower education of household heads in the neighborhood was an important risk factor for increased mortality. The mortality was highly variable in space and the socio-ecological risk factors are sensitive to study site and sex. Conclusion Our study suggests that lower education of the household head is an important predictor for prime age adult mortality. Variability in socio-ecological risk factors and in risk areas by sex make it challenging to design appropriate intervention strategies aimed at decreasing prime-age adult deaths in Vietnam. PMID:24587031

  15. Labour complications remain the most important risk factors for perinatal mortality in rural Kenya.

    PubMed Central

    Weiner, Renay; Ronsmans, Carine; Dorman, Ed; Jilo, Hilton; Muhoro, Anne; Shulman, Caroline

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To identify and quantify risk factors for perinatal mortality in a Kenyan district hospital and to assess the proportion of perinatal deaths attributable to labour complications, maternal undernutrition, malaria, anaemia and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 910 births was conducted between January 1996 and July 1997 and risk factors for perinatal mortality were analysed. FINDINGS: The perinatal mortality rate was 118 per 1000 births. Complications of labour such as haemorrhage, premature rupture of membranes/premature labour, and obstructed labour/ malpresentation increased the risk of death between 8- and 62-fold, and 53% of all perinatal deaths were attributable to labour complications. Placental malaria and maternal HIV, on the other hand, were not associated with perinatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Greater attention needs to be given to the quality of obstetric care provided in the rural district-hospital setting. PMID:14576887

  16. The association between advanced maternal and paternal ages and increased adult mortality is explained by early parental loss

    PubMed Central

    Elo, Irma T.; Kohler, Iliana; Martikainen, Pekka

    2015-01-01

    The association between advanced maternal and paternal ages at birth and increased mortality among adult offspring is often attributed to parental reproductive ageing, e.g., declining oocyte or sperm quality. Less attention has been paid to alternative mechanisms, including parental socio-demographic characteristics or the timing of parental death. Moreover, it is not known if the parental age-adult mortality association is mediated by socioeconomic attainment of the children, or if it varies over the lifecourse of the adult children. We used register-based data drawn from the Finnish 1950 census (sample size 89,737; mortality follow-up 1971–2008) and discrete-time survival regression with logit link to analyze these alternative mechanisms in the parental age-offspring mortality association when the children were aged 35–49 and 50–72. Consistent with prior literature, we found that adult children of older parents had increased mortality relative to adults whose parents were aged 25–29 at the time of birth. For example, maternal and paternal ages 40–49 were associated with mortality odds ratios (ORs)of 1.31 (p<.001) and 1.22 (p<.01), respectively, for offspring mortality at ages 35–49. At ages 50–72 advanced parental age also predicted higher mortality, though not as strongly. Adjustment for parental socio-demographic characteristics (education, occupation, family size, household crowding, language) weakened the associations only slightly. Adjustment for parental survival, measured by whether the parents were alive when the child reached age 35, reduced the advanced parental age coefficients substantially and to statistically insignificant levels. These results indicate that the mechanism behind the advanced parental age-adult offspring mortality association is mainly social, reflecting early parental loss and parental characteristics, rather than physiological mechanisms reflecting reproductive ageing. PMID:24997641

  17. The association between advanced maternal and paternal ages and increased adult mortality is explained by early parental loss.

    PubMed

    Myrskylä, Mikko; Elo, Irma T; Kohler, Iliana V; Martikainen, Pekka

    2014-10-01

    The association between advanced maternal and paternal ages at birth and increased mortality among adult offspring is often attributed to parental reproductive aging, e.g., declining oocyte or sperm quality. Less attention has been paid to alternative mechanisms, including parental socio-demographic characteristics or the timing of parental death. Moreover, it is not known if the parental age-adult mortality association is mediated by socioeconomic attainment of the children, or if it varies over the lifecourse of the adult children. We used register-based data drawn from the Finnish 1950 census (sample size 89,737; mortality follow-up 1971-2008) and discrete-time survival regression with logit link to analyze these alternative mechanisms in the parental age-offspring mortality association when the children were aged 35-49 and 50-72. Consistent with prior literature, we found that adult children of older parents had increased mortality relative to adults whose parents were aged 25-29 at the time of birth. For example, maternal and paternal ages 40-49 were associated with mortality odds ratios (ORs) of 1.31 (p<.001) and 1.22 (p<.01), respectively, for offspring mortality at ages 35-49. At ages 50-72 advanced parental age also predicted higher mortality, though not as strongly. Adjustment for parental socio-demographic characteristics (education, occupation, family size, household crowding, language) weakened the associations only slightly. Adjustment for parental survival, measured by whether the parents were alive when the child reached age 35, reduced the advanced parental age coefficients substantially and to statistically insignificant levels. These results indicate that the mechanism behind the advanced parental age-adult offspring mortality association is mainly social, reflecting early parental loss and parental characteristics, rather than physiological mechanisms reflecting reproductive aging. PMID:24997641

  18. Outcomes and Risk Factors Affecting Mortality in Patients Who Underwent Colorectal Emergency Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Oh, Nam Ho

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Emergency colorectal surgery has a high risk of mortality and morbidity because of incomplete bowel preparation, bacterial proliferation, and contamination. In this study, we investigated the outcomes and the risk factors affecting mortality in patients who had undergone emergency surgery for the treatment of various colorectal diseases. Methods This study is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data to survey the clinical results for patients who had undergone emergency colorectal surgery from January 2014 to December 2014. We analyzed various clinicopathologic factors, which were divided into 3 categories: preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative. Results A total of 50 patients had undergone emergency colorectal surgery during the time period covered by this study. Among them, 10 patients (20%) died during the postoperative period. A simple linear regression analysis showed that the risk factors for mortality were old age, preoperative hypotension, and a high American Society of Anesthesiologist (ASA) score. Moreover, a multiple linear regression analysis showed a high ASA score and preoperative hypotension to be independent risk factors. Conclusion In this study, emergency colorectal surgery showed a relatively high mortality rate. Furthermore, the independent risk factors for mortality were preoperative hypotension and high ASA score; thus, patients with these characteristics need to be evaluated more carefully and receive better care if the mortality rate is to be reduced.

  19. Under-nutrition at baseline and health services utilization and mortality over a one-year period in older adults receiving Medicare home health services

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Yongbin; Brown, Cynthia J.; Burgio, Kathryn L.; Kilgore, Meredith L.; Ritchie, Christine S.; Roth, David L.; West, Delia Smith; Locher, Julie L.

    2010-01-01

    Objective Older adults receiving Medicare home health services who experience under-nutrition may be at increased risk of experiencing adverse outcomes. We sought to identify the association between baseline nutritional status and subsequent health service utilization and mortality over a one-year period in older adults receiving Medicare home health services. Design This was a longitudinal study using questionnaires and anthropometric measures designed to assess nutritional status (Mini-Nutritional Assessment [MNA]) at baseline and health services utilization and mortality status at six-month and one-year follow-ups. Setting Participants were evaluated in their homes. Participants 198 older adults who were receiving Medicare home health services. Results Based upon MNA, 12.0% of patients were Malnourished, 51.0% were At Risk for Malnourishment, and 36.9% had Normal Nutrition Status. Based upon body mass index (BMI), 8.1% of participants were underweight, 37.9% were normal weight, 25.3% were overweight, and 28.8% were obese. Using multivariate binary logistic regression analyses, participants who were Malnourished or At Risk for Malnourishment were more likely to experience subsequent hospitalization, emergency room visit, home health aide use, and mortality for the entire sample and hospitalization and nursing home stay for overweight and obese participants. Conclusions Experiencing under-nutrition at the time of receipt of Medicare home health services was associated with increased health services utilization and mortality for the entire sample, and with increased health services utilization only for the overweight and obese subsample. Opportunities exist to address risk of under-nutrition in patients receiving home health services, including those who are overweight or obese, to prevent subsequent adverse health outcomes. PMID:21527170

  20. Risk factors for community-acquired pneumonia in adults in Europe: a literature review

    PubMed Central

    Torres, Antoni; Peetermans, Willy E; Viegi, Giovanni; Blasi, Francesco

    2013-01-01

    Background Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) causes considerable morbidity and mortality in adults, particularly in the elderly. Methods Structured searches of PubMed were conducted to identify up-to-date information on the incidence of CAP in adults in Europe, as well as data on lifestyle and medical risk factors for CAP. Results The overall annual incidence of CAP in adults ranged between 1.07 to 1.2 per 1000 person-years and 1.54 to 1.7 per 1000 population and increased with age (14 per 1000 person-years in adults aged ≥65 years). Incidence was also higher in men than in women and in patients with chronic respiratory disease or HIV infection. Lifestyle factors associated with an increased risk of CAP included smoking, alcohol abuse, being underweight, having regular contact with children and poor dental hygiene. The presence of comorbid conditions, including chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular disease, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, dementia, dysphagia, HIV or chronic renal or liver disease all increased the risk of CAP by twofold to fourfold. Conclusion A range of lifestyle factors and underlying medical conditions are associated with an increased risk of CAP in European adults. Understanding of the types of individual at greatest risk of CAP can help to ensure that interventions to reduce the risk of infection and burden of disease are targeted appropriately. PMID:24130229

  1. Biologic score and mortality based on a 30-year mortality follow-up: radiation effects research foundation adult health study.

    PubMed

    Kasagi, Fumiyoshi; Yamada, Michiko; Sasaki, Hideo; Fujita, Shoichiro

    2009-08-01

    This study aimed to test whether scored biologic functions can predict individual life expectancies and to investigate the disease-related and time-related differences in evaluated associations. A biologic score was defined as the first principal component score of the five physiological tests. Study participants were 4,871 people aged 35-74 years at baseline examination in 1970-1972 and followed until the end of 1999. We evaluated the prognostic value of the biologic score by Cox proportional hazard analysis. In all age and sex groups, increasing trends of mortality for all diseases by increment of biologic score were observed after adjustment for potential risk factors. The validity of the biologic score was significant throughout the entire study period. Each disease except cancer showed a significant association with biologic score at baseline examination. In conclusion, the biologic score is a valid predictor of life span in this large-scale prospective study of middle-aged and elderly Japanese. PMID:19435953

  2. The impact of dietary habits and metabolic risk factors on cardiovascular and diabetes mortality in countries of the Middle East and North Africa in 2010: a comparative risk assessment analysis

    PubMed Central

    Afshin, Ashkan; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Fahimi, Saman; Shi, Peilin; Powles, John; Singh, Gitanjali; Yakoob, Mohammad Yawar; Abdollahi, Morteza; Al-Hooti, Suad; Farzadfar, Farshad; Houshiar-rad, Anahita; Hwalla, Nahla; Koksal, Eda; Musaiger, Abdulrahman; Pekcan, Gulden; Sibai, Abla Mehio; Zaghloul, Sahar; Danaei, Goodarz; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2015-01-01

    Objective/design We conducted a comparative risk assessment analysis to estimate the cardiometabolic disease (CMD) mortality attributable to 11 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors in 20 countries of the Middle East by age, sex and time. The national exposure distributions were obtained from a systematic search of multiple databases. Missing exposure data were estimated using a multilevel Bayesian hierarchical model. The aetiological effect of each risk factor on disease-specific mortality was obtained from clinical trials and observational studies. The number of disease-specific deaths was obtained from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease mortality database. Mortality due to each risk factor was determined using the population attributable fraction and total number of disease-specific deaths. Setting/population Adult population in the Middle East by age, sex, country and time. Results Suboptimal diet was the leading risk factor for CMD mortality in 11 countries accounting for 48% (in Morocco) to 72% (in the United Arab Emirates) of CMD deaths. Non-optimal systolic blood pressure was the leading risk factor for CMD deaths in eight countries causing 45% (in Bahrain) to 68% (in Libya) of CMD deaths. Non-optimal body mass index and fasting plasma glucose were the third and fourth leading risk factors for CMD mortality in most countries. Among individual dietary factors, low intake of fruits accounted for 8% (in Jordan) to 21% (in Palestine) of CMD deaths and low intake of whole grains was responsible for 7% (in Palestine) to 22% (in the United Arab Emirates) of CMD deaths. Between 1990 and 2010, the CMD mortality attributable to most risk factors had decreased except for body mass index and trans-fatty acids. Conclusions Our findings highlight key similarities and differences in the impact of the dietary and metabolic risk factors on CMD mortality in the countries of the Middle East and inform priorities for policy measures to prevent CMD. PMID:25995236

  3. A biological approach to the interspecies prediction of radiation-induced mortality risk

    SciTech Connect

    Carnes, B.A.; Grahn, D.; Olshansky, S.J.

    1997-08-01

    Evolutionary explanations for why sexually reproducing organisms grow old suggest that the forces of natural selection affect the ages when diseases occur that are subject to a genetic influence (referred to here as intrinsic diseases). When extended to the population level for a species, this logic leads to the general prediction that age-specific death rates from intrinsic causes should begin to rise as the force of selection wanes once the characteristic age of sexual maturity is attained. Results consistent with these predictions have been found for laboratory mice, beagles, and humans where, after adjusting for differences in life span, it was demonstrated that these species share a common age pattern of mortality for intrinsic causes of death. In quantitative models used to predict radiation-induced mortality, risks are often expressed as multiples of those observed in a control population. A control population, however, is an aging population. As such, mortality risks related to exposure must be interpreted relative to the age-specific risk of death associated with aging. Given the previous success in making interspecies predictions of age-related mortality, the purpose of this study was to determine whether radiation-induced mortality observed in one species could also be predicted quantitatively from a model used to describe the mortality consequences of exposure to radiation in a different species. Mortality data for B6CF{sub 1} mice and beagles exposed to {sup 60}Co {gamma}-rays for the duration of life were used for analysis.

  4. The Heartmate Risk Score Predicts Morbidity and Mortality in Unselected LVAD Recipients and Risk Stratifies INTERMACS Class 1 Patients

    PubMed Central

    Adamo, Luigi; Nassif, Michael; Tibrewala, Anjan; Novak, Eric; Vader, Justin; Silvestry, Scott C.; Itoh, Akinobu; Ewald, Gregory A.; Mann, Douglas L.; LaRue, Shane J.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Evaluation of the Heartmate Risk Score and of its potential benefits in clinical practice. Background The Heartmate Risk Score (HMRS) has been shown to correlate with mortality in the cohort of patients enrolled in the Heartmate II trials but its validity in unselected, “real world” populations remains unclear. Methods We identified a cohort of 269 consecutive patients who received a Heartmate II left ventricular assist device at our institution between June 2005 and June 2013. 90-day and two year mortality rates as well as frequency of several morbid events were compared by retrospectively assigned HMRS category groups. The analysis was repeated within the subgroup of INTERMACS class 1 patients. Results Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) analysis showed that the HMRS correlated with 90-day mortality with an AUC of 0.70. Stratification in low, mid and high HMRS groups identified patients with increasing hazard of 90-day mortality, increasing long term mortality, increasing rate of GI bleeding events and increasing median number of days spent in the hospital in the first year post implant. Within INTERMACS class 1 patients, those in the highest HMRS group were found to have a relative risk of 90-day mortality 5.7 times higher than those in the lowest HMRS group (39.1% vs 6.9%, p=0.029). Conclusions HMRS is a valid clinical tool to stratify risk of morbidity and mortality after implant of Heartmate II devices in unselected patients and can be used to predict short term mortality risk in INTERMACS class 1 patients. PMID:25770410

  5. Blood pressure and risk of cancer incidence and mortality in the Metabolic Syndrome and Cancer Project.

    PubMed

    Stocks, Tanja; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke; Manjer, Jonas; Bjørge, Tone; Ulmer, Hanno; Hallmans, Göran; Lindkvist, Björn; Selmer, Randi; Nagel, Gabriele; Tretli, Steinar; Concin, Hans; Engeland, Anders; Jonsson, Håkan; Stattin, Pär

    2012-04-01

    Observational studies have shown inconsistent results for the association between blood pressure and cancer risk. We investigated the association in 7 cohorts from Norway, Austria, and Sweden. In total, 577799 adults with a mean age of 44 years were followed for, on average, 12 years. Incident cancers were 22184 in men and 14744 in women, and cancer deaths were 8724 and 4525, respectively. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios of cancer per 10-mmHg increments of midblood pressure, which corresponded with 0.7 SDs and, for example, an increment of systolic/diastolic blood pressure of 130/80 to 142/88 mmHg. All of the models used age as the time scale and were adjusted for possible confounders, including body mass index and smoking status. In men, midblood pressure was positively related to total incident cancer (hazard ratio per 10 mmHg increment: 1.07 [95% CI: 1.04-1.09]) and to cancer of the oropharynx, colon, rectum, lung, bladder, kidney, malignant melanoma, and nonmelanoma skin cancer. In women, midblood pressure was not related to total incident cancer but was positively related to cancer of the liver, pancreas, cervix, uterine corpus, and malignant melanoma. A positive association was also found for cancer mortality, with HRs per 10-mmHg increment of 1.12 (95% CI: 1.08-1.15) for men and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.11) for women. These results suggest a small increased cancer risk overall in men with elevated blood pressure level and a higher risk for cancer death in men and women. PMID:22353615

  6. Risks associated with preweaning mortality in 855 litters on 39 commercial outdoor pig farms in England

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A prospective longitudinal study was carried out on 39 outdoor breeding pig farms in England to investigate the risks associated with mortality in preweaning piglets. Risk factor data were collected from a questionnaire with the farmer and observations of the farm made by the researcher. Prospectiv...

  7. Development and validation of a predictive mortality risk score from a European hemodialysis cohort

    PubMed Central

    Floege, Jürgen; Gillespie, Iain A; Kronenberg, Florian; Anker, Stefan D; Gioni, Ioanna; Richards, Sharon; Pisoni, Ronald L; Robinson, Bruce M; Marcelli, Daniele; Froissart, Marc; Eckardt, Kai-Uwe

    2015-01-01

    Although mortality risk scores for chronic hemodialysis (HD) patients should have an important role in clinical decision-making, those currently available have limited applicability, robustness, and generalizability. Here we applied a modified Framingham Heart Study approach to derive 1- and 2-year all-cause mortality risk scores using a 11,508 European incident HD patient database (AROii) recruited between 2007 and 2009. This scoring model was validated externally using similar-sized Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Survey (DOPPS) data. For AROii, the observed 1- and 2-year mortality rates were 13.0 (95% confidence interval (CI; 12.3–13.8)) and 11.2 (10.4–12.1)/100 patient years, respectively. Increasing age, low body mass index, history of cardiovascular disease or cancer, and use of a vascular access catheter during baseline were consistent predictors of mortality. Among baseline laboratory markers, hemoglobin, ferritin, C-reactive protein, serum albumin, and creatinine predicted death within 1 and 2 years. When applied to the DOPPS population, the predictive risk score models were highly discriminatory, and generalizability remained high when restricted by incidence/prevalence and geographic location (C-statistics 0.68–0.79). This new model offers improved predictive power over age/comorbidity-based models and also predicted early mortality (C-statistic 0.71). Our new model delivers a robust and reproducible mortality risk score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data. PMID:25651366

  8. Development and validation of a risk calculator for prediction of mortality after infrainguinal bypass surgery

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Prateek K.; Ramanan, Bala; Lynch, Thomas G.; Sundaram, Abhishek; MacTaggart, Jason N.; Gupta, Himani; Fang, Xiang; Pipinos, Iraklis I.

    2012-01-01

    Objective For peripheral arterial disease, infrainguinal bypass grafting (BPG) carries a higher perioperative risk compared with peripheral endovascular procedures. The choice between the open and endovascular therapies is to an extent dependent on the expected periprocedural risk associated with each. Tools for estimating the periprocedural risk in patients undergoing BPG have not been reported in the literature. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a calculator to estimate the risk of perioperative mortality ≤30 days of elective BPG. Methods We identified 9556 patients (63.9% men) who underwent elective BPG from the 2007 to 2009 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data sets. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with 30-day perioperative mortality. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. The risk factors were subsequently used to develop a risk calculator. Results Patients had a median age of 68 years. The 30-day mortality rate was 1.8% (n = 170). Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified seven preoperative predictors of 30-day mortality: increasing age, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, chronic corticosteroid use, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dependent functional status, dialysis dependence, and lower extremity rest pain. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. The model demonstrated excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.81; bias-corrected C statistic, 0.81) and calibration. The validated risk model was used to develop an interactive risk calculator using the logistic regression equation. Conclusions The validated risk calculator has excellent predictive ability for 30-day mortality in a patient after an elective BPG. It is anticipated to aid in surgical decision making, informed patient consent, preoperative optimization, and consequently, risk reduction. PMID:22632800

  9. Cardiovascular Risk Factor Levels in Adults with Mental Retardation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rimmer, James H.; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Comparison of cardiovascular risk factors (blood lipids, obesity, and smoking) in 329 adults with mental retardation residing in various settings with subjects in the Framingham Offspring Study found that adults with mental retardation had cardiovascular risk profiles similar to those of individuals without mental retardation. (Author/DB)

  10. Association between Body Mass Index and All-Cause Mortality in Hypertensive Adults: Results from the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial (CSPPT).

    PubMed

    Yang, Wei; Li, Jian-Ping; Zhang, Yan; Fan, Fang-Fang; Xu, Xi-Ping; Wang, Bin-Yan; Xu, Xin; Qin, Xian-Hui; Xing, Hou-Xun; Tang, Gen-Fu; Zhou, Zi-Yi; Gu, Dong-Feng; Zhao, Dong; Huo, Yong

    2016-01-01

    The association between elevated body mass index (BMI) and risk of death has been reported in many studies. However, the association between BMI and all-cause mortality for hypertensive Chinese adults remains unclear. We conducted a post-hoc analysis using data from the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial (CSPPT). Cox regression analysis was performed to determine the significance of the association of BMI with all-cause mortality. During a mean follow-up duration of 4.5 years, 622 deaths (3.0%) occurred among the 20,694 participants aged 45-75 years. A reversed J-shaped relationship was observed between BMI and all-cause mortality. The hazard ratios (HRs) for underweight (<18.5 kg/m²), overweight (24.0-27.9 kg/m²), and obesity (≥28.0 kg/m²) were calculated relative to normal weight (18.5-23.9 kg/m²). The summary HRs were 1.56 (95% CI, 1.11-2.18) for underweight, 0.78 (95% CI 0.64-0.95) for overweight and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.48-0.85) for obesity. In sex-age-specific analyses, participants over 60 years of age had optimal BMI in the obesity classification and the results were consistent in both males and females. Relative to normal weight, underweight was associated with significantly higher mortality. Excessive weight was not associated with increased risk of mortality. Chinese hypertensive adults had the lowest mortality in grade 1 obesity. PMID:27338470

  11. Association between Body Mass Index and All-Cause Mortality in Hypertensive Adults: Results from the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial (CSPPT)

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Wei; Li, Jian-Ping; Zhang, Yan; Fan, Fang-Fang; Xu, Xi-Ping; Wang, Bin-Yan; Xu, Xin; Qin, Xian-Hui; Xing, Hou-Xun; Tang, Gen-Fu; Zhou, Zi-Yi; Gu, Dong-Feng; Zhao, Dong; Huo, Yong

    2016-01-01

    The association between elevated body mass index (BMI) and risk of death has been reported in many studies. However, the association between BMI and all-cause mortality for hypertensive Chinese adults remains unclear. We conducted a post-hoc analysis using data from the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial (CSPPT). Cox regression analysis was performed to determine the significance of the association of BMI with all-cause mortality. During a mean follow-up duration of 4.5 years, 622 deaths (3.0%) occurred among the 20,694 participants aged 45–75 years. A reversed J-shaped relationship was observed between BMI and all-cause mortality. The hazard ratios (HRs) for underweight (<18.5 kg/m2), overweight (24.0–27.9 kg/m2), and obesity (≥28.0 kg/m2) were calculated relative to normal weight (18.5–23.9 kg/m2). The summary HRs were 1.56 (95% CI, 1.11–2.18) for underweight, 0.78 (95% CI 0.64–0.95) for overweight and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.48–0.85) for obesity. In sex-age-specific analyses, participants over 60 years of age had optimal BMI in the obesity classification and the results were consistent in both males and females. Relative to normal weight, underweight was associated with significantly higher mortality. Excessive weight was not associated with increased risk of mortality. Chinese hypertensive adults had the lowest mortality in grade 1 obesity. PMID:27338470

  12. Mortality and Risk Stratification of HIV Infected Individuals.

    PubMed

    Heltemes, Bradley R

    2015-01-01

    For the first decade and a half after the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) was first identified, the prognosis for most people infected with HIV was quite poor. Life insurance companies responded accordingly and insurance laboratories developed new means to test for the infection. However, it is now clear that people with HIV infection are living longer and that the majority of deaths occurring among those on treatment are now no longer due to AIDS-defining illnesses. This review examines the results of selected studies which analyzed mortality outcomes in those with HIV infection, the many factors which influence those outcomes, and the limitations in the data and in their applicability to an insurance population. PMID:27584921

  13. Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy: Identifying risk and preventing mortality

    PubMed Central

    Lhatoo, Samden; Noebels, Jeffrey; Whittemore, Vicky

    2016-01-01

    Summary Premature death among individuals with epilepsy is higher than in the general population, and sudden unexpected death is the most common cause of this mortality. A new multisite collaborative research consortium, the Center for sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) Research (CSR), has received major funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to examine the possible biologic mechanisms underlying this potentially preventable comorbidity and develop predictive biomarkers for interventions that could lower SUDEP incidence. This inaugural report describes the structure of the CSR, its priorities for human and experimental research, and the strategic collaborations and advanced tools under development to reduce this catastrophic outcome of epilepsy. The CSR Partners Program will work closely with committed volunteer agencies, industry, and academic institutions to accelerate and communicate these advances to the professional and lay community. PMID:26494436

  14. Alcohol Consumption and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in Women: Potential Mediating Mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Djoussé, Luc; Lee, I-Min; Buring, Julie E; Gaziano, J. Michael

    2009-01-01

    Background: Although an association between moderate alcohol consumption and decreased cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality has been reported, limited data are available on potential mediating mechanisms. We examined the association between alcohol and CVD and mortality in 26,399 women and estimated the proportion of reduced risk of CVD/mortality explained by a series of intermediate factors. Methods and Results: Alcohol consumption was self-reported at baseline and CVD events and deaths were ascertained via follow-up questionnaires and medical records. Baseline levels of hemoglobin A1c, inflammatory markers, hemostatic factors, and lipids were measured. Blood pressure and hypercholesterolemia; and treatment for lipids were self-reported. During a mean follow up of 12.2 years, 1039 CVD events, 785 deaths (153 CVD deaths) occurred. There was a J-shaped relation between alcohol consumption and incident CVD, total and CVD mortality in a multivariable model. Compared with abstainers, alcohol intake of 5-14.9 g/d was associated with 26%, 35%, and 51% lower risk of CVD, total and CVD mortality, respectively, in a multivariable model. For CVD risk reduction, lipids made the largest contribution to the lower risk of CVD (28.7%), followed by hemoglobin A1c/diabetes (25.3%), inflammatory/hemostatic factors (5%), and blood pressure factors (4.6%). All these mediating factors together explained 86.3%, 18.7%, and 21.8% of the observed lower risk of CVD, total and CVD mortality, respectively. Conclusions: These data suggest that alcohol effects on lipids and insulin sensitivity may account for a large proportion of the lower risk of CVD/mortality observed with moderate drinking under the assumption that the alcohol-CVD association is causal. PMID:19597054

  15. Preexisting Diabetes and Risks of Morbidity and Mortality After Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Tsai, Ming-Shian; Wang, Yu-Chiao; Kao, Yin-Hsien; Jeng, Long-Bin; Kao, Chia-Hung

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The purpose of this study was to determine the risk of surgical mortality and morbidity in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) undergoing a gastrectomy for gastric cancer (GC). Using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, we identified 6284 patients who underwent gastrectomy for GC from 1999 to 2010. In addition, we created a non-DM control cohort consisting of 6268 patients who received gastrectomy during the same period. Compared with the non-DM cohort, the DM cohort exhibited a higher prevalence of preoperative coexisting medical conditions, namely hypertension, hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic pulmonary disease, stroke, and cirrhosis. The odds ratio (OR) of 30-day postoperative mortality after gastrectomy in the DM cohort was 1.04 (95% confidence interval 0.78–1.40) after we adjusted for covariates. The DM cohort did not exhibit a significantly higher risk of 30-day postoperative morbidities. Further analysis revealed that only patients with a history of a DM-related coma exhibited a higher risk of 30-day postoperative mortality (adjusted OR 2.46, 95% confidence interval 1.10 − 5.54). Moreover, the risk of 90-day postoperative mortality was significantly higher in patients with DM-related eye involvement, coma, peripheral circulatory disease, and renal manifestations, in comparison with the non-DM cohort. The risk of 90-day mortality after gastrectomy for GC is higher in patients with DM-related manifestations than those without DM. PMID:26376386

  16. Does Parsonnet scoring model predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery in India?

    PubMed Central

    Srilata, Moningi; Padhy, Narmada; Padmaja, Durga; Gopinath, Ramachandran

    2015-01-01

    Aims and Objectives: To validate the Parsonnet scoring model to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery in Indian scenario. Materials and Methods: A total of 889 consecutive patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery between January 2010 and April 2011 were included in the study. The Parsonnet score was determined for each patient and its predictive ability for in-hospital mortality was evaluated. The validation of Parsonnet score was performed for the total data and separately for the sub-groups coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), valve surgery and combined procedures (CABG with valve surgery). The model calibration was performed using Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis for discrimination. Independent predictors of mortality were assessed from the variables used in the Parsonnet score by multivariate regression analysis. Results: The overall mortality was 6.3% (56 patients), 7.1% (34 patients) for CABG, 4.3% (16 patients) for valve surgery and 16.2% (6 patients) for combined procedures. The Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic was <0.05 for the total data and also within the sub-groups suggesting that the predicted outcome using Parsonnet score did not match the observed outcome. The area under the ROC curve for the total data was 0.699 (95% confidence interval 0.62–0.77) and when tested separately, it was 0.73 (0.64–0.81) for CABG, 0.79 (0.63–0.92) for valve surgery (good discriminatory ability) and only 0.55 (0.26–0.83) for combined procedures. The independent predictors of mortality determined for the total data were low ejection fraction (odds ratio [OR] - 1.7), preoperative intra-aortic balloon pump (OR - 10.7), combined procedures (OR - 5.1), dialysis dependency (OR - 23.4), and re-operation (OR - 9.4). Conclusions: The Parsonnet score yielded a good predictive value for valve surgeries, moderate predictive value for the total data and for CABG and poor predictive value for combined

  17. Frailty and cardiovascular disease: potential role of gait speed in surgical risk stratification in older adults

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Michael A.

    2015-01-01

    Frailty is a state of late life decline and vulnerability, typified by physical weakness and decreased physiologic reserve. The epidemiology and pathophysiology of frailty share features with those of cardiovascular disease. Gait speed can be used as a measure of frailty and is a powerful predictor of mortality. Advancing age is a potent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and has been associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Older adults comprise approximately half of cardiac surgery patients, and account for nearly 80% of the major complications and deaths following surgery. The ability of traditional risk models to predict mortality and major morbidity in older patients being considered for cardiac surgery may improve if frailty, as measured by gait speed, is included in their assessment. It is possible that in the future frailty assessment may assist in choosing among therapies (e.g., surgical vs. percutaneous aortic valve replacement for patients with aortic stenosis). PMID:25678904

  18. Risk Factors for Acute Kidney Injury and In-Hospital Mortality in Patients Receiving Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Sung Woo; Yu, Mi-yeon; Lee, Hajeong; Ahn, Shin Young; Kim, Sejoong; Chin, Ho Jun; Na, Ki Young

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objectives Although acute kidney injury (AKI) is the most frequent complication in patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), few studies have been conducted on the risk factors of AKI. We performed this study to identify the risk factors of AKI associated with in-hospital mortality. Methods Data from 322 adult patients receiving ECMO were analyzed. AKI and its stages were defined according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) classifications. Variables within 24 h before ECMO insertion were collected and analyzed for the associations with AKI and in-hospital mortality. Results Stage 3 AKI was associated with in-hospital mortality, with a hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) of 2.690 (1.472–4.915) compared to non-AKI (p = 0.001). The simplified acute physiology score 2 (SAPS2) and serum sodium level were also associated with in-hospital mortality, with HRs of 1.02 (1.004–1.035) per 1 score increase (p = 0.01) and 1.042 (1.014–1.070) per 1 mmol/L increase (p = 0.003). The initial pump speed of ECMO was significantly related to in-hospital mortality with a HR of 1.333 (1.020–1.742) per 1,000 rpm increase (p = 0.04). The pump speed was also associated with AKI (p = 0.02) and stage 3 AKI (p = 0.03) with ORs (95% CI) of 2.018 (1.129–3.609) and 1.576 (1.058–2.348), respectively. We also found that the red cell distribution width (RDW) above 14.1% was significantly related to stage 3 AKI. Conclusion The initial pump speed of ECMO was a significant risk factor of in-hospital mortality and AKI in patients receiving ECMO. The RDW was a risk factor of stage 3 AKI. PMID:26469793

  19. A review of methods to estimate cause-specific mortality in presence of competing risks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heisey, Dennis M.; Patterson, Brent R.

    2006-01-01

    Estimating cause-specific mortality is often of central importance for understanding the dynamics of wildlife populations. Despite such importance, methodology for estimating and analyzing cause-specific mortality has received little attention in wildlife ecology during the past 20 years. The issue of analyzing cause-specific, mutually exclusive events in time is not unique to wildlife. In fact, this general problem has received substantial attention in human biomedical applications within the context of biostatistical survival analysis. Here, we consider cause-specific mortality from a modern biostatistical perspective. This requires carefully defining what we mean by cause-specific mortality and then providing an appropriate hazard-based representation as a competing risks problem. This leads to the general solution of cause-specific mortality as the cumulative incidence function (CIF). We describe the appropriate generalization of the fully nonparametric staggered-entry Kaplan–Meier survival estimator to cause-specific mortality via the nonparametric CIF estimator (NPCIFE), which in many situations offers an attractive alternative to the Heisey–Fuller estimator. An advantage of the NPCIFE is that it lends itself readily to risk factors analysis with standard software for Cox proportional hazards model. The competing risks–based approach also clarifies issues regarding another intuitive but erroneous "cause-specific mortality" estimator based on the Kaplan–Meier survival estimator and commonly seen in the life sciences literature.

  20. The Impact of Dietary and Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Type 2 Diabetes Mortality in Brazil

    PubMed Central

    de Oliveira Otto, Marcia C.; Afshin, Ashkan; Micha, Renata; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Fahimi, Saman; Singh, Gitanjali; Danaei, Goodarz; Sichieri, Rosely; Monteiro, Carlos A; Louzada, Maria L. C.; Ezzati, Majid; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2016-01-01

    Background Trends in food availability and metabolic risk factors in Brazil suggest a shift toward unhealthy dietary patterns and increased cardiometabolic disease risk, yet little is known about the impact of dietary and metabolic risk factors on cardiometabolic mortality in Brazil. Methods Based on data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we used comparative risk assessment to estimate the burden of 11 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors on mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in Brazil in 2010. Information on national diets and metabolic risks were obtained from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey, the Food and Agriculture Organization database, and large observational studies including Brazilian adults. Relative risks for each risk factor were obtained from meta-analyses of randomized trials or prospective cohort studies; and disease-specific mortality from the GBD 2010 database. We quantified uncertainty using probabilistic simulation analyses, incorporating uncertainty in dietary and metabolic data and relative risks by age and sex. Robustness of findings was evaluated by sensitivity to varying feasible optimal levels of each risk factor. Results In 2010, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and suboptimal diet were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths in Brazil, responsible for 214,263 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 195,073 to 233,936) and 202,949 deaths (95% UI: 194,322 to 211,747), respectively. Among individual dietary factors, low intakes of fruits and whole grains and high intakes of sodium were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths. For premature cardiometabolic deaths (before age 70 years, representing 40% of cardiometabolic deaths), the leading risk factors were suboptimal diet (104,169 deaths; 95% UI: 99,964 to 108,002), high SBP (98,923 deaths; 95%UI: 92,912 to 104,609) and high body-mass index (BMI) (42,643 deaths; 95%UI: 40,161 to 45,111). Conclusion suboptimal diet, high SBP, and high

  1. Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

    PubMed Central

    Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

  2. Are Our Buildings Safe Enough for Controlling Earthquake Mortality Risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsang, Hing-Ho; Wenzel, Friedemann; Daniell, James

    2016-04-01

    Structural engineers design buildings strictly according to the earthquake actions (demand) specified in code of practice, whilst the rationale behind such requirement is commonly untold. In fact, even if a structure is designed strictly in accordance to the best standard and practice in the world, there is still a (small) chance of failure or collapse in an extreme earthquake event, due to the uncertainties in material properties and actual ground motion characteristics. This is called the residual risk, which is unavoidable, and should be taken as a governing parameter for determining the performance goals of seismic design. Eurocode 8 is not a risk targeted code as its design requirements refer to return periods of ground motion rather than to collapse probabilities and/or probability of fatalities. The US International Building Code (IBC 2012) and the 2010 structural design standards of ASCE 7-10 target collapse probabilities for all levels of ground motion and accept a 1% collapse probability in 50 years as acceptable for design. Consequently, the input ground motion to design is no longer a hazard map for a uniform return period. However, we show that this risk target is not generally compatible with the intention to keep the fatality risk below the 10-6 per year threshold in code-compliant buildings. Moreover, the metric of individual fatality risk may not be appropriate as for (technological) incidents many regulations define requirements for the F-N curve so that loss events with, for instance, 100 fatalities in one event should occur much less frequently than events with 10 or more fatalities.

  3. Survival and determinants of mortality in adult HIV/Aids patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in Somali Region, Eastern Ethiopia

    PubMed Central

    Damtew, Bereket; Mengistie, Bezatu; Alemayehu, Tadesse

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Studies have shown high initial mortality in Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) programs from resource-limited settings. However, there is dearth of evidence on treatment outcomes and associated determinant factors in public hospitals. Therefore, the objective of this study is to assess survival and identify predictors of death in adult HIV-infected patients initiating ART at a public hospital in Eastern Ethiopia. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted by reviewing baseline and follow-up records of patients who started ART between December 1, 2007 and December 31, 2011 at Kharamara hospital. Time to death was the main outcome measure. Kaplan-Meier models were used to estimate mortality and Cox proportional hazards models to identify predictors of mortality. Results A total of 784 patients (58.4% females) were followed for a median of 60 months. There were 87 (11.1%) deaths yielding an overall mortality rate of 5.15/100 PYO (95% CI: 4.73-6.37). The estimated mortality was 8.4%, 9.8%, 11.3%, 12.7% and 14.1% at 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 months respectively. The independent predictors of death were single marital status (AHR: 2.31; 95%CI: 1.18-4.50), a bedridden functional status (AHR: 5.91; 95%CI: 2.87-12.16), advanced WHO stage (AHR: 7.36; 95%CI: 3.17-17.12), BMI < 18.5 Kg/m2 (AHR: 2.20; 95%CI: 1.18-4.09), CD4 count < 50 cells/µL (AHR: 2.70; 95%CI: 1.26-5.80), severe anemia (AHR: 4.57; 95%CI: 2.30-9.10), and TB co-infection (AHR: 2.30; 95%CI: 1.28-4.11). Conclusion Improved survival was observed in patients taking ART in Somali region of Ethiopia. The risk for death was higher in patients with advanced WHO stage, low CD4 count, low Hgb, low BMI, and concomitant TB infection. Intensive case management is recommended for patients with the prognostic factors. Optimal immunologic and weight recoveries in the first 6 months suggest increased effort to retain patients in care at this period. PMID:26889319

  4. Late mortality, secondary malignancy and hospitalisation in teenage and young adult survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma: report of the Childhood/Adolescent/Young Adult Cancer Survivors Research Program and the BC Cancer Agency Centre for Lymphoid Cancer.

    PubMed

    Bhuller, Kaljit S; Zhang, Yang; Li, Dongdong; Sehn, Laurie H; Goddard, Karen; McBride, Mary L; Rogers, Paul C

    2016-03-01

    Late complications affecting Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors are well described in paediatric and adult-based publications. This study determined the late morbidity and mortality risk for 442 teenage and young adult (TYAs) 5-year HL survivors, diagnosed at 15-24 years of age between 1970 and 1999, identified from the British Columbia Cancer Registry. Treatment details were abstracted from charts. Survivors and a matched comparison cohort were linked to provincial administrative health datasets until December 2006 and regression analysis was performed, providing risk ratios regarding mortality, secondary malignancy and morbidity causing hospitalisation. Sixty (13·6%) survivors experienced late mortality with excess deaths from secondary cancer [standardised mortality ratio (SMR) 18·6; 95% confidence interval (CI) 11-29·4] and non-malignant disease (SMR 3·6; 95% CI 2·2-5·5). Excess secondary cancers (standardised incidence ratio 7·8; 95% CI 5·6-10·5) were associated with radiotherapy [Hazard ratio (HR) 2·7; 95% CI 1-7·7] and female gender (HR 1·8; 95% CI 1-3·4). Of 281 survivors treated between 1981 and 1999, 143 (51%) had morbidity resulting in hospitalisation (relative risk 1·45; 95% CI 1·22-1·73). Hospitalisation significantly increased with combined modality therapy, chemotherapy alone and recent treatment era. TYA HL survivors have excess risk of mortality and secondary malignancy continuing 30 years from diagnosis. Radiotherapy is associated with secondary malignancy and current response-adapted protocols attempt to minimise exposure, but late morbidity causing hospitalisation remains significant. PMID:26727959

  5. Elder Self-neglect and Abuse and Mortality Risk in a Community-Dwelling Population

    PubMed Central

    Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa; de Leon, Carlos Mendes; Fulmer, Terry; Beck, Todd; Hebert, Liesi; Dyer, Carmel; Paveza, Gregory; Evans, Denis

    2010-01-01

    Context Both elder self-neglect and abuse have become increasingly prominent public health issues. The association of either elder self-neglect or abuse with mortality remains unclear. Objective To examine the relationship of elder self-neglect or abuse reported to social services agencies with all-cause mortality among a community-dwelling elderly population. Design, Setting, and Participants Prospective, population-based cohort study (conducted from 1993 to 2005) of residents living in a geographically defined community of 3 adjacent neighborhoods in Chicago, Illinois, who were participating in the Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP; a longitudinal, population-based, epidemiological study of residents aged ≥65 years). A subset of these participants had suspected elder self-neglect or abuse reported to social services agencies. Main Outcome Measures Mortality ascertained during follow-up and by use of the National Death Index. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess independent associations of self-neglect or elder abuse reporting with the risk of all-cause mortality using time-varying covariate analyses. Results Of 9318 CHAP participants, 1544 participants were reported for elder self-neglect and 113 participants were reported for elder abuse from 1993 to 2005. All CHAP participants were followed up for a median of 6.9 years (interquartile range, 7.4 years), during which 4306 deaths occurred. In multivariable analyses, reported elder self-neglect was associated with a significantly increased risk of 1-year mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 5.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.20–6.51). Mortality risk was lower but still elevated after 1 year (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.67–2.14). Reported elder abuse also was associated with significantly increased risk of overall mortality (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.07–1.84). Confirmed elder self-neglect or abuse also was associated with mortality. Increased mortality risks associated with either elder self-neglect or

  6. Frequency of nut consumption and mortality risk in the PREDIMED nutrition intervention trial

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Prospective studies in non-Mediterranean populations have consistently related increasing nut consumption to lower coronary heart disease mortality. A small protective effect on all-cause and cancer mortality has also been suggested. To examine the association between frequency of nut consumption and mortality in individuals at high cardiovascular risk from Spain, a Mediterranean country with a relatively high average nut intake per person. Methods We evaluated 7,216 men and women aged 55 to 80 years randomized to 1 of 3 interventions (Mediterranean diets supplemented with nuts or olive oil and control diet) in the PREDIMED (‘PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea’) study. Nut consumption was assessed at baseline and mortality was ascertained by medical records and linkage to the National Death Index. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression and multivariable analyses with generalized estimating equation models were used to assess the association between yearly repeated measurements of nut consumption and mortality. Results During a median follow-up of 4.8 years, 323 total deaths, 81 cardiovascular deaths and 130 cancer deaths occurred. Nut consumption was associated with a significantly reduced risk of all-cause mortality (P for trend <0.05, all). Compared to non-consumers, subjects consuming nuts >3 servings/week (32% of the cohort) had a 39% lower mortality risk (hazard ratio (HR) 0.61; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.83). A similar protective effect against cardiovascular and cancer mortality was observed. Participants allocated to the Mediterranean diet with nuts group who consumed nuts >3 servings/week at baseline had the lowest total mortality risk (HR 0.37; 95% CI 0.22 to 0.66). Conclusions Increased frequency of nut consumption was associated with a significantly reduced risk of mortality in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Please see related commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/11/165. Trial registration Clinicaltrials

  7. Randomized-Control Screening Trials to Lower Gall Bladder Cancer Mortality in High Risk Populations.

    PubMed

    Krishnatreya, Manigreeva; Kataki, Amal Chandra

    2016-01-01

    Gall bladder cancer is generally fatal. The high morbidity and mortality due to gall bladder cancer exerts a significant impact on efforts towards cancer control in high risk populations of the World and a rationale program for control of gall bladder cancer mortality has remained as an unmet need in these populations. Currently there are no effective strategies for controlling gall bladder cancer mortality. This mini review is to highlight the need and feasibility for secondary prevention of gall bladder cancer by screening in high risk populations. A way forward is to assess the role of secondary prevention of gall bladder cancers by conducting randomized- controlled screening trials in high risk populations. PMID:27221939

  8. Occupational career and risk of mortality among US Civil War veterans.

    PubMed

    Su, Dejun

    2009-08-01

    Previous studies have extended the traditional framework on occupational disparities in health by examining mortality differentials from a career perspective. Few studies, however, have examined the relation between career and mortality in a historical U.S. population. This study explores the relation between occupational career and risk of mortality in old age among 7096 Union Army veterans who fought the American Civil War in the 1860s. Occupational mobility was commonplace among the veterans in the postbellum period, with 54% of them changing occupations from the time of enlistment to 1900. Among veterans who were farmers at enlistment, 46% of them changed to a non-farming occupation by the time of 1900. Results from the Cox Proportional Hazard analysis suggest that relative to the average mortality risk of the sample, being a farmer at enlistment or circa 1900 are both associated with a lower risk of mortality in old age, although the effect is more salient for veterans who were farmers at enlistment. Occupational immobility for manual labors poses a serious threat to chance of survival in old age. These findings still hold after adjusting for the effects of selected variables characterizing risk exposures during early life, wartime, and old age. The robustness of the survival advantage associated with being a farmer at enlistment highlights the importance of socioeconomic conditions early in life in chance of survival at older ages. PMID:19552993

  9. Perioperative risk factors for in-hospital mortality after emergency gastrointestinal surgery.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jin Young; Lee, Seung Hwan; Jung, Myung Jae; Lee, Jae Gil

    2016-08-01

    Few studies have evaluated the risk factors for in-hospital mortality in critically ill surgical patients who have undergone emergency gastrointestinal (GI) surgery. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality in critically ill surgical patients after emergency GI surgery.The medical records of 362 critically ill surgical patients who underwent emergency GI surgery, admitted to intensive care unit between January 2007 and December 2011, were reviewed retrospectively. Perioperative biochemical and clinical parameters of survivors and nonsurvivors were compared. Logistic regression multivariate analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors of mortality.The in-hospital mortality rate was 15.2% (55 patients). Multivariate analyses revealed cancer-related perforation (odds ratio [OR] 16.671, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.629-105.721, P = 0.003), preoperative anemia (hemoglobin <10 g/dL; OR 6.976, 95% CI 1.376-35.360, P = 0.019), and preoperative hypoalbuminemia (albumin <2.7 g/dL; OR 9.954, 95% CI 1.603-61.811, P = 0.014) were independent risk factors of in-hospital mortality after emergency GI surgery.The findings of this study suggest that in critically ill patients undergoing emergency GI surgery, cancer-related peritonitis, preoperative anemia, and preoperative hypoalbuminemia are associated with in-hospital mortality. Recognizing risk factors at an early stage could aid risk stratification and the provision of optimal perioperative care. PMID:27583863

  10. Perioperative risk factors for in-hospital mortality after emergency gastrointestinal surgery

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jin Young; Lee, Seung Hwan; Jung, Myung Jae; Lee, Jae Gil

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Few studies have evaluated the risk factors for in-hospital mortality in critically ill surgical patients who have undergone emergency gastrointestinal (GI) surgery. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality in critically ill surgical patients after emergency GI surgery. The medical records of 362 critically ill surgical patients who underwent emergency GI surgery, admitted to intensive care unit between January 2007 and December 2011, were reviewed retrospectively. Perioperative biochemical and clinical parameters of survivors and nonsurvivors were compared. Logistic regression multivariate analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors of mortality. The in-hospital mortality rate was 15.2% (55 patients). Multivariate analyses revealed cancer-related perforation (odds ratio [OR] 16.671, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.629–105.721, P = 0.003), preoperative anemia (hemoglobin <10 g/dL; OR 6.976, 95% CI 1.376–35.360, P = 0.019), and preoperative hypoalbuminemia (albumin <2.7 g/dL; OR 9.954, 95% CI 1.603–61.811, P = 0.014) were independent risk factors of in-hospital mortality after emergency GI surgery. The findings of this study suggest that in critically ill patients undergoing emergency GI surgery, cancer-related peritonitis, preoperative anemia, and preoperative hypoalbuminemia are associated with in-hospital mortality. Recognizing risk factors at an early stage could aid risk stratification and the provision of optimal perioperative care. PMID:27583863

  11. Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent Mortality Risk.

    PubMed

    Naimark, David M J; Grams, Morgan E; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Black, Corri; Drion, Iefke; Fox, Caroline S; Inker, Lesley A; Ishani, Areef; Jee, Sun Ha; Kitamura, Akihiko; Lea, Janice P; Nally, Joseph; Peralta, Carmen Alicia; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Ryu, Seungho; Tonelli, Marcello; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Coresh, Josef; Gansevoort, Ron T; Warnock, David G; Woodward, Mark; de Jong, Paul E

    2016-08-01

    A single determination of eGFR associates with subsequent mortality risk. Prior decline in eGFR indicates loss of kidney function, but the relationship to mortality risk is uncertain. We conducted an individual-level meta-analysis of the risk of mortality associated with antecedent eGFR slope, adjusting for established risk factors, including last eGFR, among 1.2 million subjects from 12 CKD and 22 other cohorts within the CKD Prognosis Consortium. Over a 3-year antecedent period, 12% of participants in the CKD cohorts and 11% in the other cohorts had an eGFR slope <-5 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year, whereas 7% and 4% had a slope >5 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year, respectively. Compared with a slope of 0 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year, a slope of -6 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year associated with adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality of 1.25 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.09 to 1.44) among CKD cohorts and 1.15 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.31) among other cohorts during a follow-up of 3.2 years. A slope of +6 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year also associated with higher all-cause mortality risk, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.58 (95% CI, 1.29 to 1.95) among CKD cohorts and 1.43 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.84) among other cohorts. Results were similar for cardiovascular and noncardiovascular causes of death and stronger for longer antecedent periods (3 versus <3 years). We conclude that prior decline or rise in eGFR associates with an increased risk of mortality, independent of current eGFR. PMID:26657865

  12. Interhospital transfer: an independent risk factor for mortality in the surgical intensive care unit.

    PubMed

    Arthur, Katherine R; Kelz, Rachel R; Mills, Angela M; Reinke, Caroline E; Robertson, Mathew P; Sims, Carrie A; Pascual, Jose L; Reilly, Patrick M; Holena, Daniel N

    2013-09-01

    Interhospital transfer (IHT) is associated with mortality in medical and mixed intensive care units (ICUs), but few studies have examined this relationship in a surgical ICU (SICU) setting. We hypothesized that IHT is associated with increased mortality in SICU patients relative to ICU patients admitted within the hospital. We reviewed SICU and transfer center databases from a tertiary academic center over a 2-year period. Inclusion criteria included age 18 years or older and SICU admission 24 hours or greater. Demographic data, admission service, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores were captured. The primary end point was ICU mortality. Univariate logistic regression was used to test the association between variables and mortality. Factors found to be associated with mortality at P < 0.1 were entered into a multivariable model. Of 4542 admissions, 416 arrived by IHT. Compared with the non-IHT group, the IHT group was older (age 58.3 years [interquartile range, 47.8 to 70.6] vs. 57.8 years [interquartile range, 44.1 to 68.8] years, P = 0.036), sicker (APACHE II score 16.5 [interquartile range, 12 to 23] vs. 14 [interquartile range, 10 to 20], P < 0.001), and more likely to be white (82% [n = 341] vs. 69% [n = 2865], P < 0.001). Mortality rates in IHT patients were highest on the emergency surgery (18%), transplant surgery (16%), and gastrointestinal surgery (8%) services. After adjusting for age and APACHE II score, IHT remained a risk factor for ICU mortality (odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.45; P = 0.032) in SICU patients. Interhospital transfer is an independent risk factor for mortality in the SICU population; this risk is unevenly distributed through service lines. Further efforts to determine the cause of this association are warranted. PMID:24069990

  13. Developing a simple preinterventional score to predict hospital mortality in adult venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: A pilot study.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Yu-Ting; Wu, Meng-Yu; Chang, Yu-Sheng; Huang, Chung-Chi; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-07-01

    Despite gaining popularity, venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) remains a controversial therapy for acute respiratory failure (ARF) in adult patients due to its equivocal survival benefits. The study was aimed at identifying the preinterventional prognostic predictors of hospital mortality in adult VV-ECMO patients and developing a practical mortality prediction score to facilitate clinical decision-making.This retrospective study included 116 adult patients who received VV-ECMO for severe ARF in a tertiary referral center, from 2007 to 2015. The definition of severe ARF was PaO2/ FiO2 ratio < 70 mm Hg under advanced mechanical ventilation (MV). Preinterventional variables including demographic characteristics, ventilatory parameters, and severity of organ dysfunction were collected for analysis. The prognostic predictors of hospital mortality were generated with multivariate logistic regression and transformed into a scoring system. The discriminative power on hospital mortality of the scoring system was presented as the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).The overall hospital mortality rate was 47% (n = 54). Pre-ECMO MV day > 4 (OR: 4.71; 95% CI: 1.98-11.23; P < 0.001), pre-ECMO sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score >9 (OR: 3.16; 95% CI: 1.36-7.36; P = 0.01), and immunocompromised status (OR: 2.91; 95% CI: 1.07-7.89; P = 0.04) were independent predictors of hospital mortality of adult VV-ECMO. A mortality prediction score comprising of the 3 binary predictors was developed and named VV-ECMO mortality score. The total score was estimated as follows: VV-ECMO mortality score = 2 × (Pre-ECMO MV day > 4) + 1 × (Pre-ECMO SOFA score >9) + 1 × (immunocompromised status). The AUROC of VV-ECMO mortality score was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.67-0.85; P < 0.001). The corresponding hospital mortality rates to VV-ECMO mortality scores were 18% (Score 0), 35% (Score 1), 56% (Score 2), 75% (Score

  14. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database Mortality Risk Model: Part 2—Clinical Application

    PubMed Central

    Jacobs, Jeffrey P.; O’Brien, Sean M.; Pasquali, Sara K.; Gaynor, J. William; Mayer, John E.; Karamlou, Tara; Welke, Karl F.; Filardo, Giovanni; Han, Jane M.; Kim, Sunghee; Quintessenza, James A.; Pizarro, Christian; Tchervenkov, Christo I.; Lacour-Gayet, Francois; Mavroudis, Constantine; Backer, Carl L.; Austin, Erle H.; Fraser, Charles D.; Tweddell, James S.; Jonas, Richard A.; Edwards, Fred H.; Grover, Frederick L.; Prager, Richard L.; Shahian, David M.; Jacobs, Marshall L.

    2016-01-01

    Background The empirically derived 2014 Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database Mortality Risk Model incorporates adjustment for procedure type and patient-specific factors. The purpose of this report is to describe this model and its application in the assessment of variation in outcomes across centers. Methods All index cardiac operations in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database (January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2013) were eligible for inclusion. Isolated patent ductus arteriosus closures in patients weighing less than or equal to 2.5 kg were excluded, as were centers with more than 10% missing data and patients with missing data for key variables. The model includes the following covariates: primary procedure, age, any prior cardiovascular operation, any noncardiac abnormality, any chromosomal abnormality or syndrome, important preoperative factors (mechanical circulatory support, shock persisting at time of operation, mechanical ventilation, renal failure requiring dialysis or renal dysfunction (or both), and neurological deficit), any other preoperative factor, prematurity (neonates and infants), and weight (neonates and infants). Variation across centers was assessed. Centers for which the 95% confidence interval for the observed-to-expected mortality ratio does not include unity are identified as lower-performing or higher-performing programs with respect to operative mortality. Results Included were 52,224 operations from 86 centers. Overall discharge mortality was 3.7% (1,931 of 52,224). Discharge mortality by age category was neonates, 10.1% (1,129 of 11,144); infants, 3.0% (564 of 18,554), children, 0.9% (167 of 18,407), and adults, 1.7% (71 of 4,119). For all patients, 12 of 86 centers (14%) were lower-performing programs, 67 (78%) were not outliers, and 7 (8%) were higher-performing programs. Conclusions The 2014 Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database Mortality Risk Model

  15. Dietary intake of vitamin K is inversely associated with mortality risk.

    PubMed

    Juanola-Falgarona, Martí; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Martínez-González, Miguel Ángel; Corella, Dolores; Estruch, Ramón; Ros, Emili; Fitó, Montserrat; Arós, Fernando; Gómez-Gracia, Enrique; Fiol, Miquel; Lapetra, José; Basora, Josep; Lamuela-Raventós, Rosa María; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Pintó, Xavier; Muñoz, Miguel Ángel; Ruiz-Gutiérrez, Valentina; Fernández-Ballart, Joan; Bulló, Mònica

    2014-05-01

    Vitamin K has been related to cardiovascular disease and cancer risk. However, data on total mortality are scarce. The aim of the present study was to assess the association between the dietary intake of different types of vitamin K and mortality in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular disease risk. A prospective cohort analysis was conducted in 7216 participants from the PREDIMED (Prevención con Dieta Mediterránea) study (median follow-up of 4.8 y). Energy and nutrient intakes were evaluated using a validated 137-item food frequency questionnaire. Dietary vitamin K intake was calculated annually using the USDA food composition database and other published sources. Deaths were ascertained by an end-point adjudication committee unaware of the dietary habits of participants after they had reviewed medical records and linked up to the National Death Index. Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to assess the RR of mortality. Energy-adjusted baseline dietary phylloquinone intake was inversely associated with a significantly reduced risk of cancer and all-cause mortality after controlling for potential confounders (HR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.30, 0.96; and HR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.45, 0.90, respectively). In longitudinal assessments, individuals who increased their intake of phylloquinone or menaquinone during follow-up had a lower risk of cancer (HR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.43, 0.95; and HR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.26, 0.64, respectively) and all-cause mortality (HR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.44, 0.73; and HR: 0.55; 95% CI: 0.42, 0.73, respectively) than individuals who decreased or did not change their intake. Also, individuals who increased their intake of dietary phylloquinone had a lower risk of cardiovascular mortality risk (HR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.31, 0.86). However, no association between changes in menaquinone intake and cardiovascular mortality was observed (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.44, 1.29). An increase in dietary intake of vitamin K is associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular

  16. Association of pesticide exposure and risk of breast cancer mortality in Mississippi.

    PubMed

    Abdalla, Mohamed H; Gutierrez-Mohamed, Mary Lou; Farah, Ibrahim O

    2003-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common form of cancer among women in the United States. Established risk factors include advancing age, early menarche, late menopause, positive first relative, late age of first birth and socioeconomic status. Mississippi has a combination of risk factors making it suitable for studying the pathways of breast cancer etiology. The purpose of this study was to analyze pesticide exposure and the risk of breast cancer mortality. Data for this study consisted of secondary analyses of the Mississippi age-adjusted breast cancer mortality aggregated by period (1970-1994). The total number of acres planted during 1997-2000 for each Statistical Economic Area (SEA) and by type of crop was used as proxy measure for pesticide exposure. Analyses by SEA revealed potential evidence for an association between pesticide exposure and risk of breast cancer mortality in three areas: Greenville, Corinth and Yazoo. The total number of acres planted was positively and significantly associated with female breast cancer mortality rate, and these associations differed by race and type of crop. The strongest correlation was between breast cancer mortality rate for white women and rice crops planted in Yazoo (rho = 0.674, p < 0.030). Moderate correlations were found between African-American breast cancer mortality rates and total acres planted in Corinth (rho = 0.667, p < 0.049), catfish crops in Greenville (rho = 0.648, p < 0.031), and although not statistically significant (p < 0.066) also with total planted acres in Greenville (rho = 0.573). In conclusion, there are moderate statistically significant associations between number of acres of crops planted and the mortality rate from breast cancer in Mississippi. The association varies by state economic area, race and type of crop planted. PMID:12724926

  17. Autonomic Nervous System Dysfunction and Inflammation Contribute to the Increased Cardiovascular Mortality Risk Associated With Depression

    PubMed Central

    Kop, Willem J.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Tracy, Russell P.; Barzilay, Joshua I.; Schulz, Richard; Gottdiener, John S.

    2011-01-01

    Objective To investigate prospectively whether autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysfunction and inflammation play a role in the increased cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality risk associated with depression. Methods Participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (n = 907; mean age, 71.3 ± 4.6 years; 59.1% women) were evaluated for ANS indices derived from heart rate variability (HRV) analysis (frequency and time domain HRV, and nonlinear indices, including detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA1) and heart rate turbulence). Inflammation markers included C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, fibrinogen, and white blood cell count). Depressive symptoms were assessed, using the 10-item Centers for Epidemiological Studies Depression scale. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the mortality risk associated with depression, ANS, and inflammation markers, adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Results Depression was associated with ANS dysfunction (DFA1, p = .018), and increased inflammation markers (white blood cell count, p = .012, fibrinogen p = .043) adjusting for covariates. CVD-related mortality occurred in 121 participants during a median follow-up of 13.3 years. Depression was associated with an increased CVD mortality risk (hazard ratio, 1.88; 95% confidence interval, 1.23–2.86). Multivariable analyses showed that depression was an independent predictor of CVD mortality (hazard ratio, 1.72; 95% confidence interval, 1.05–2.83) when adjusting for independent HRV and inflammation predictors (DFA1, heart rate turbulence, interleukin-6), attenuating the depression-CVD mortality association by 12.7% (p < .001). Conclusion Autonomic dysfunction and inflammation contribute to the increased cardiovascular mortality risk associated with depression, but a large portion of the predictive value of depression remains unexplained by these neuroimmunological measures. PMID:20639389

  18. Recurrent, severe wheezing is associated with morbidity and mortality in adults with sickle cell disease

    PubMed Central

    Cohen, Robyn T.; Madadi, Anusha; Blinder, Morey A.; DeBaun, Michael R.; Strunk, Robert C.; Field, Joshua J.

    2014-01-01

    Prior studies of asthma in children with sickle cell disease (SCD) were based on reports of a doctor-diagnosis of asthma with limited description of asthma features. Doctor-diagnoses of asthma may represent asthma or wheezing unrelated to asthma. Objectives of this study were to determine if asthma characteristics are present in adults with a doctor-diagnosis of asthma and/or wheezing, and to examine the relationship between doctor-diagnosis of asthma, wheezing and SCD morbidity. This was an observational cohort study of 114 adults with SCD who completed respiratory symptom questionnaires and had serum IgE measurements. A subset of 79 participants completed pulmonary function testing. Survival analysis was based on a mean prospective follow-up of 28 months and data were censored at the time of death or loss to follow-up. Adults reporting a doctor-diagnosis of asthma (N = 34) were more likely to have features of asthma including wheeze, eczema, family history of asthma, and an elevated IgE level (all P < 0.05). However, there was no difference in pain or ACS rate, lung function, or risk of death between adults with and without a doctor-diagnosis of asthma. In contrast, adults who reported recurrent, severe episodes of wheezing (N = 34), regardless of asthma, had twice the rates of pain and ACS, decreased lung function and increased risk of death compared with adults without recurrent, severe wheezing. Asthma features were not associated with recurrent, severe wheezing. Our data suggest that wheezing in SCD may occur independently of asthma and is a marker of disease severity. PMID:21809369

  19. Prognostic Factors of Postoperative Morbidity and Mortality of Adult Strangulated Groin Hernia.

    PubMed

    Lebeau, Roger; Traoré, Mamadou; Anzoua, Kouakou Ibrahim; Kalou, Ismael Leh Bi; N'Dri, Ahou Bernadette; Aguia, Brice; Kakou, Aka Gérard; Diané, Bamourou

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this work is provide the results of the surgical treatment of strangulated groin hernias and determine morbidity and mortality risk factors. It is a retrospective study related to the 288 records of patients aged 15 years and more, who underwent emergency surgery for strangulated groin hernia from January 2007 to December 2012. Postoperative evolution was assessed on the morbidity, mortality, and length of hospital stay. Mortality and morbidity risk factors were studied. The statistical analysis was conducted with the chi-square test and Fischer's exact test with a significance level of 5 %. Strangulated groin hernias account for 42.2 % of the overall groin hernia operations conducted during the study period (288/697). Necroses were present in 59 (20.5 %) patients. The mortality rate was 6.2 % (n = 18). Admission time superior or equal to 48 h (p = 0.002), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class superior or equal to III (p = 0.002), presence of preoperative strangulated groin hernia complication (peritonitis, occlusion, hernia abscesses) (p = 0.001), bowel necrosis (p = 0.000), and bowel resection (p = 0.000) were statistically related to a high risk of death. Forty-two (n = 42) postoperative complications were recorded in 34 (11.8 %) patients. These complications were outnumbered by postoperative parietal suppuration (n = 26) which led to three cases of evisceration. Bowel necrosis was related to a high risk of postoperative complications (p = 0.002). Reoperation was necessary for 13 patients. The length of stay in hospital was 4 days (range between 1 and 28 days). The average follow-up period was 7 months. No recurrence was noticed during this period. Delay in consultation, high ASA class, and moreover, bowel necrosis requiring bowel resection are the factors of unfavorable postoperative results. Groin hernias are an avoidable death cause provided that early treatment of strangulated hernias and

  20. Non-Communicable Disease Mortality and Risk Factors in Formal and Informal Neighborhoods, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso: Evidence from a Health and Demographic Surveillance System

    PubMed Central

    Rossier, Clémentine; Soura, Abdramane Bassiahi; Duthé, Géraldine; Findley, Sally

    2014-01-01

    The expected growth in NCDs in cities is one of the most important health challenges of the coming decades in Sub-Saharan countries. This paper aims to fill the gap in our understanding of socio-economic differentials in NCD mortality and risk in low and middle income neighborhoods in urban Africa. We use data collected in the Ouagadougou Health and Demographic Surveillance System. 409 deaths were recorded between 2009–2011 among 20,836 individuals aged 35 years and older; verbal autopsies and the InterVA program were used to determine the probable cause of death. A random survey asked in 2011 1,039 adults aged 35 and over about tobacco use, heavy alcohol consumption, lack of physical activity and measured their weight, height, and blood pressure. These data reveal a high level of premature mortality due to NCDs in all neighborhoods: NCD mortality increases substantially by age 50. NCD mortality is greater in formal neighborhoods, while adult communicable disease mortality remains high, especially in informal neighborhoods. There is a high prevalence of risk factors for NCDs in the studied neighborhoods, with over one-fourth of the adults being overweight and over one-fourth having hypertension. Better-off residents are more prone to physical inactivity and excessive weight, while vulnerable populations such as widows/divorced individuals and migrants suffer more from higher blood pressure. Females have a significantly lower risk of being smokers or heavy drinkers, while they are more likely to be physically inactive or overweight, especially when married. Muslim individuals are less likely to be smokers or heavy drinkers, but have a higher blood pressure. Everything else being constant, individuals living in formal neighborhoods are more often overweight. The data presented make clear the pressing need to develop effective programs to reduce NCD risk across all types of neighborhoods in African cities, and suggest several entry points for community

  1. Non-Communicable Disease Mortality and Risk Factors in Formal and Informal Neighborhoods, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso: Evidence from a Health and Demographic Surveillance System.

    PubMed

    Rossier, Clémentine; Soura, Abdramane Bassiahi; Duthé, Géraldine; Findley, Sally

    2014-01-01

    The expected growth in NCDs in cities is one of the most important health challenges of the coming decades in Sub-Saharan countries. This paper aims to fill the gap in our understanding of socio-economic differentials in NCD mortality and risk in low and middle income neighborhoods in urban Africa. We use data collected in the Ouagadougou Health and Demographic Surveillance System. 409 deaths were recorded between 2009-2011 among 20,836 individuals aged 35 years and older; verbal autopsies and the InterVA program were used to determine the probable cause of death. A random survey asked in 2011 1,039 adults aged 35 and over about tobacco use, heavy alcohol consumption, lack of physical activity and measured their weight, height, and blood pressure. These data reveal a high level of premature mortality due to NCDs in all neighborhoods: NCD mortality increases substantially by age 50. NCD mortality is greater in formal neighborhoods, while adult communicable disease mortality remains high, especially in informal neighborhoods. There is a high prevalence of risk factors for NCDs in the studied neighborhoods, with over one-fourth of the adults being overweight and over one-fourth having hypertension. Better-off residents are more prone to physical inactivity and excessive weight, while vulnerable populations such as widows/divorced individuals and migrants suffer more from higher blood pressure. Females have a significantly lower risk of being smokers or heavy drinkers, while they are more likely to be physically inactive or overweight, especially when married. Muslim individuals are less likely to be smokers or heavy drinkers, but have a higher blood pressure. Everything else being constant, individuals living in formal neighborhoods are more often overweight. The data presented make clear the pressing need to develop effective programs to reduce NCD risk across all types of neighborhoods in African cities, and suggest several entry points for community

  2. Falls Risk and Simulated Driving Performance in Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Gaspar, John G.; Neider, Mark B.; Kramer, Arthur F.

    2013-01-01

    Declines in executive function and dual-task performance have been related to falls in older adults, and recent research suggests that older adults at risk for falls also show impairments on real-world tasks, such as crossing a street. The present study examined whether falls risk was associated with driving performance in a high-fidelity simulator. Participants were classified as high or low falls risk using the Physiological Profile Assessment and completed a number of challenging simulated driving assessments in which they responded quickly to unexpected events. High falls risk drivers had slower response times (~2.1 seconds) to unexpected events compared to low falls risk drivers (~1.7 seconds). Furthermore, when asked to perform a concurrent cognitive task while driving, high falls risk drivers showed greater costs to secondary task performance than did low falls risk drivers, and low falls risk older adults also outperformed high falls risk older adults on a computer-based measure of dual-task performance. Our results suggest that attentional differences between high and low falls risk older adults extend to simulated driving performance. PMID:23509627

  3. Clustering of Risk Behaviours among African American Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baruth, M.; Addy, C. L.; Wilcox, S.; Dowda, M.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: Individuals may engage in more than one risk behaviour at any given time. The extent to which risk behaviours cluster among African American adults has been largely unexplored. This study examined the prevalence and clustering of three risk behaviours among African American church members: smoking; low moderate-to-vigorous intensity…

  4. Prevalence and Correlates of At-Risk Drinking Among Older Adults: The Project SHARE Study

    PubMed Central

    Moore, Alison A.; Xu, Haiyong; Ang, Alfonso; Tallen, Louise; Mirkin, Michelle; Ettner, Susan L.

    2010-01-01

    ABSTRACT BACKGROUND At-risk drinking, excessive or potentially harmful alcohol use in combination with select comorbidities or medication use, affects about 10% of elderly adults and is associated with higher mortality. Yet, our knowledge is incomplete regarding the prevalence of different categories of at-risk drinking and their associations with patient demographics. OBJECTIVE To examine the prevalence and correlates of different categories of at-risk drinking among older adults. DESIGN Cross-sectional analysis of survey data. SUBJECTS Current drinkers ages 60 and older accessing primary care clinics around Santa Barbara, California (n = 3,308). MEASUREMENTS At-risk drinkers were identified using the Comorbidity Alcohol Risk Evaluation Tool (CARET). At-risk alcohol use was categorized as alcohol use in the setting of 1) high-risk comorbidities or 2) high-risk medication use, and 3) excessive alcohol use alone. Adjusted associations of participant characteristics with at-risk drinking in each of the three at-risk categories and with at-risk drinking of any kind were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS Over one-third of our sample (34.7%) was at risk. Among at-risk individuals, 61.9% had alcohol use in the context of high-risk comorbidities, 61.0% had high-risk medication use, and 64.3% had high-risk alcohol behaviors. The adjusted odds of at-risk drinking of any kind were decreased and significant for women (odds ratio, OR = 0.41; 95% confidence interval: 0.35-0.48; p-value < 0.001), adults over age 80 (OR = 0.55; CI: 0.43-0.72; p < 0.001 vs. ages 60-64), Asians (OR = 0.40; CI: 0.20-0.80; p = 0.01 vs. Caucasians) and individuals with higher education levels. Similar associations were observed in all three categories of at-risk drinking. CONCLUSIONS High-risk alcohol use was common among older adults in this large sample of primary care patients, and male Caucasians, those ages 60-64, and those with lower levels of education

  5. Perinatal mortality in rural India with special reference to high risk pregnancies.

    PubMed

    Misra, P K; Thakur, S; Kumar, A; Tandon, S

    1993-02-01

    One-thousand-and-sixty-five pregnant mothers among a rural population of 30,000 in Uttar Pradesh were followed for 1 year. A still birth rate of 26.1 and perinatal mortality rate of 121.1 per thousand births were registered. Early neonatal mortality rate was found to be 97.4 per thousand live births. Twenty per cent of the women were identified with high risk factors. Inadequate or no antenatal care, bad obstetric history, and prolonged labour attributed to 13, 20, and 27 per cent of the risk, respectively, with a respective relative risk of 2.23, 3.1, and 4.09 times. These three factors were found to be the major and significant contributors to high perinatal mortality amongst the 'high risk' group. Selective extension of comprehensive M.C.H. Care to this group using the high risk approach is expected to lower perinatal mortality in rural community where M.C.H. services are far from optimum. PMID:8445688

  6. The effects of 3 environmental risks on mortality disparities across Mexican communities.

    PubMed

    Stevens, Gretchen A; Dias, Rodrigo H; Ezzati, Majid

    2008-11-01

    The disparities in the burden of ill health caused by environmental risks should be an important consideration beyond their aggregate population effects. We used comparative risk assessment methods to calculate the mortality effects of unsafe water and sanitation, indoor air pollution from household solid fuel use, and ambient urban particulate matter pollution in Mexico. We also estimated the disparities in mortality caused by each risk factor, across municipios (counties) of residence and by municipio socioeconomic status (SES). Data sources for the analysis were the national census, population-representative health surveys, and air quality monitoring for risk factor exposure; systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies for risk factor effects; and vital statistics for disease-specific mortality. During 2001-2005, unsafe water and sanitation, household solid fuel use, and urban particulate matter pollution were responsible for 3,000, 3,600, and 7,600 annual deaths, respectively. Annual child mortality rates would decrease by 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 per 1,000 children, and life expectancy would increase by 1.0, 1.2, and 2.4 months, respectively, in the absence of these environmental exposures. Together, these risk factors caused 10.6% of child deaths in the lowest-SES communities (0.9 deaths per 1,000 children), but only 4.0% in communities in the highest-SES ones (0.1 per 1,000). In the 50 most-affected municipios, these 3 exposures were responsible for 3.2 deaths per 1,000 children and a 10-month loss of life expectancy. The large disparities in the mortality effects of these 3 environmental risks should form the basis of interventions and environmental monitoring programs. PMID:18974224

  7. The effects of 3 environmental risks on mortality disparities across Mexican communities

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, Gretchen A.; Dias, Rodrigo H.; Ezzati, Majid

    2008-01-01

    The disparities in the burden of ill health caused by environmental risks should be an important consideration beyond their aggregate population effects. We used comparative risk assessment methods to calculate the mortality effects of unsafe water and sanitation, indoor air pollution from household solid fuel use, and ambient urban particulate matter pollution in Mexico. We also estimated the disparities in mortality caused by each risk factor, across municipios (counties) of residence and by municipio socioeconomic status (SES). Data sources for the analysis were the national census, population-representative health surveys, and air quality monitoring for risk factor exposure; systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies for risk factor effects; and vital statistics for disease-specific mortality. During 2001–2005, unsafe water and sanitation, household solid fuel use, and urban particulate matter pollution were responsible for 3,000, 3,600, and 7,600 annual deaths, respectively. Annual child mortality rates would decrease by 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 per 1,000 children, and life expectancy would increase by 1.0, 1.2, and 2.4 months, respectively, in the absence of these environmental exposures. Together, these risk factors caused 10.6% of child deaths in the lowest-SES communities (0.9 deaths per 1,000 children), but only 4.0% in communities in the highest-SES ones (0.1 per 1,000). In the 50 most-affected municipios, these 3 exposures were responsible for 3.2 deaths per 1,000 children and a 10-month loss of life expectancy. The large disparities in the mortality effects of these 3 environmental risks should form the basis of interventions and environmental monitoring programs. PMID:18974224

  8. A Prospective Study of Mortality and Trauma-Related Risk Factors Among a Nationally Representative Sample of Vietnam Veterans.

    PubMed

    Schlenger, William E; Corry, Nida H; Williams, Christianna S; Kulka, Richard A; Mulvaney-Day, Norah; DeBakey, Samar; Murphy, Catherine M; Marmar, Charles R

    2015-12-15

    Because Vietnam veterans comprise the majority of all living veterans and most are now older adults, the urgency and potential value of studying the long-term health effects of service in the Vietnam War, including effects on mortality, is increasing. The present study is the first prospective mortality assessment of a representative sample of Vietnam veterans. We used one of the longest follow-up periods to date (spanning older adulthood) and conducted one of the most comprehensive assessments of potential risk factors. Vital status and cause of death were ascertained for the 1,632 veterans who fought in the Vietnam theater (hereafter referred to as theater veterans) and for 716 Vietnam War-era veterans (hereafter referred to as era veterans) who participated in the National Vietnam Veterans Readjustment Study (1987-2011). As of April 2011, 16.0% (95% confidence interval: 13.1, 19.0) of all Vietnam veterans who were alive in the 1980s were deceased. Male theater veterans with a high probability of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) were nearly 2 times more likely to have died than were those without PTSD, even after adjustment for sociodemographic and other characteristics. A high level of exposure to war zone stress was independently associated with mortality for both male and female theater veterans after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, PTSD, and physical comorbid conditions. Theater veterans with a high level of exposure to war zone stress and a high probability of PTSD had the greatest mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.24, 4.43). PMID:26634285

  9. Olive oil intake and risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in the PREDIMED Study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background It is unknown whether individuals at high cardiovascular risk sustain a benefit in cardiovascular disease from increased olive oil consumption. The aim was to assess the association between total olive oil intake, its varieties (extra virgin and common olive oil) and the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Methods We included 7,216 men and women at high cardiovascular risk, aged 55 to 80 years, from the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) study, a multicenter, randomized, controlled, clinical trial. Participants were randomized to one of three interventions: Mediterranean Diets supplemented with nuts or extra-virgin olive oil, or a control low-fat diet. The present analysis was conducted as an observational prospective cohort study. The median follow-up was 4.8 years. Cardiovascular disease (stroke, myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death) and mortality were ascertained by medical records and National Death Index. Olive oil consumption was evaluated with validated food frequency questionnaires. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards and generalized estimating equations were used to assess the association between baseline and yearly repeated measurements of olive oil intake, cardiovascular disease and mortality. Results During follow-up, 277 cardiovascular events and 323 deaths occurred. Participants in the highest energy-adjusted tertile of baseline total olive oil and extra-virgin olive oil consumption had 35% (HR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.89) and 39% (HR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.44 to 0.85) cardiovascular disease risk reduction, respectively, compared to the reference. Higher baseline total olive oil consumption was associated with 48% (HR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.93) reduced risk of cardiovascular mortality. For each 10 g/d increase in extra-virgin olive oil consumption, cardiovascular disease and mortality risk decreased by 10% and 7%, respectively. No significant

  10. High Basal Metabolic Rate Is a Risk Factor for Mortality: The Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging

    PubMed Central

    Ruggiero, Carmelinda; Metter, E. Jeffrey; Melenovsky, Vojtech; Cherubini, Antonio; Najjar, Samer S.; Ble, Alessandro; Senin, Umberto; Longo, Dan L.; Ferrucci, Luigi

    2016-01-01

    Background Despite longstanding controversies from animal studies on the relationship between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and longevity, whether BMR is a risk factor for mortality has never been tested in humans. We evaluate the longitudinal changes in BMR and the relationship between BMR and mortality in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) participants. Methods BMR and medical information were collected at the study entry and approximately every 2 years in 1227 participants (972 men) over a 40-year follow-up. BMR, expressed as kcal/m2/h, was estimated from the basal O2 consumption and CO2 production measured by open-circuit method. Data on all-cause and specific-cause mortality were also obtained. Result BMR declined with age at a rate that accelerated at older ages. Independent of age, participants who died had a higher BMR compared to those who survived. BMR was a significant risk factor for mortality independent of secular trends in mortality and other well-recognized risk factors for mortality, such as age, body mass index, smoking, white blood cell count, and diabetes. BMR was nonlinearly associated with mortality. The lowest mortality rate was found in the BMR range 31.3–33.9 kcal/m2/h. Participants with BMR in the range 33.9–36.4 kcal/m2/h and above the threshold of 36.4 kcal/m2/h experienced 28% (hazard ratio: 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.02–1.61) and 53% (hazard ratio: 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.19–1.96) higher mortality risk compared to participants with BMR 31.3–33.9 kcal/m2/h. Conclusion We confirm previous findings of an age-related decline of BMR. In our study, a blunted age-related decline in BMR was associated with higher mortality, suggesting that such condition reflects poor health status. PMID:18693224

  11. Risk factors associated with the incidence of foal mortality in an extensively managed mare herd.

    PubMed Central

    Haas, S D; Bristol, F; Card, C E

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of neonatal mortality in a large, extensively managed mare herd and what risk factors were involved in foal mortality. For a 6 wk period between April 18, 1994, and May 31, 1994, 334 foals were born, of which 74 died before reaching 10 d of age, giving an overall mortality of 22% for this period. Seventy four percent of the foal deaths occurred within 48 h of parturition. The major causes of foal mortality included starvation/exposure 27%, septicemia 26%, and dystocia 20%. Weekly incidences varied significantly, ranging from 67% for week 1 to 14% for week 5 (P < 0.01). Other risk factors that were associated with foal death included failure of passive transfer (P < 0.0001), poor mothering ability (P < 0.0001), the presence of dystocia (P < 0.0001), low birth weight (p < 0.05), lack of rainfall (P < 0.01), and low temperatures (P < 0.1). The effect of sire, mare age, mare body condition, and foal sex were not significant risk factors for foal survival (P > 0.1). Further studies are required to determine if changing management procedures will be effective in reducing the incidence of neonatal foal mortality in this extensively managed herd. PMID:8640655

  12. Are major behavioral and sociodemographic risk factors for mortality additive or multiplicative in their effects?

    PubMed

    Mehta, Neil; Preston, Samuel

    2016-04-01

    All individuals are subject to multiple risk factors for mortality. In this paper, we consider the nature of interactions between certain major sociodemographic and behavioral risk factors associated with all-cause mortality in the United States. We develop the formal logic pertaining to two forms of interaction between risk factors, additive and multiplicative relations. We then consider the general circumstances in which additive or multiplicative relations might be expected. We argue that expectations about interactions among socio-demographic variables, and their relation to behavioral variables, have been stated in terms of additivity. However, the statistical models typically used to estimate the relation between risk factors and mortality assume that risk factors act multiplicatively. We examine empirically the nature of interactions among five major risk factors associated with all-cause mortality: smoking, obesity, race, sex, and educational attainment. Data were drawn from the cross-sectional NHANES III (1988-1994) and NHANES 1999-2010 surveys, linked to death records through December 31, 2011. Our analytic sample comprised 35,604 respondents and 5369 deaths. We find that obesity is additive with each of the remaining four variables. We speculate that its additivity is a reflection of the fact that obese status is generally achieved later in life. For all pairings of socio-demographic variables, risks are multiplicative. For survival chances, it is much more dangerous to be poorly educated if you are black or if you are male. And it is much riskier to be a male if you are black. These traits, established at birth or during childhood, literally result in deadly combinations. We conclude that the identification of interactions among risk factors can cast valuable light on the nature of the process being studied. It also has public health implications by identifying especially vulnerable groups and by properly identifying the proportion of deaths

  13. The State of Health in Older Adults in Japan: Trends in Disability, Chronic Medical Conditions and Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Ishii, Shinya; Ogawa, Sumito; Akishita, Masahiro

    2015-01-01

    Both life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in Japan have been increasing and are among the highest in the world, but the gap between them has also been widening. To examine the recent trends in old age disability, chronic medical conditions and mortality in Japan, we retrospectively analyzed three nationally representative datasets: Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions (2001–2013), Patient Survey (1996–2011) and Vital Statistics (1995–2010). We obtained the sex- and age-stratified trends in disability rate, treatment rates of nine selected chronic medical conditions (cerebrovascular diseases, joint disorders, fractures, osteoporosis, ischemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, pneumonia and malignant neoplasms), total mortality rate and mortality rates from specific causes (cerebrovascular diseases, heart diseases, pneumonia and malignant neoplasms) in both sexes in four age strata (65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84 years). Disability rates declined significantly in both sexes. Treatment rates of all selected medical conditions also decreased significantly, except for fractures in women and pneumonia. Both total mortality rate and cause-specific mortality rates decreased in both sexes. We concluded that the recent decline in disability rates, treatment rates of chronic medical conditions and mortality rates points toward overall improvement in health conditions in adults over the age of 65 years in Japan. Nonetheless, considering the increase in the number of older adults, the absolute number of older adults with disability or chronic medical conditions will continue to increase and challenge medical and long-term care systems. PMID:26431468

  14. Estimate of the effects of ultraviolet radiation on the mortality of Artemia franciscana in naupliar and adult stages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dattilo, Arduino M.; Bracchini, Luca; Carlini, Laura; Loiselle, Steven; Rossi, Claudio

    2005-07-01

    The impact of different doses of artificial ultraviolet (UV) radiation on the growth stages of a marine zooplankton was investigated using laboratory microcosms. Mortality percentages of naupliar and adult samples of Artemia franciscana were recorded in relation to different UV doses (single exposure: 75, 150, 300, 600, 1,200, 2,400, 3,900, 7,800 J m-2) at specific observation times after exposure (24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h). The relationship between mortality percentage and UV dose showed significant differences in relation to the zooplankton growth stage. The elevated susceptibility of the naupliar samples to UV radiation is described through a mortality model based on a logistic equation. The data analysis shows that the slope of mortality versus dose remains the same for the two growth stages while the lethal dose in the naupliar stage was 3.3 smaller than that determined for the adult stage. The slope of the UV mortality rate versus post-incubation time was found to be significantly different (P<0.05) at low UV doses for the two life stages examined, i.e. naupliar and adult. The lower value of LD50 in naupliar stages compared to that for adults confirms that in the early growth stage this marine zooplankton is more susceptible to UV radiation.

  15. Depression or anxiety and all-cause mortality in adults with atrial fibrillation – A cohort study in Swedish primary care

    PubMed Central

    Wändell, Per; Carlsson, Axel C.; Gasevic, Danijela; Wahlsträm, Lars; Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina

    2016-01-01

    Objective Our aim was to study depression and anxiety in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients as risk factors for all-cause mortality in a primary care setting. Methods The study population included adults (n = 12 283) of 45 years and older diagnosed with AF in 75 primary care centres in Sweden. The association between depression or anxiety and all-cause mortality was explored using Cox regression analysis, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Analyses were conducted in men and women, adjusted for age, educational level, marital status, neighborhood socio-economic status (SES), change of neighborhood status and anxiety or depression, respectively, and cardiovascular co-morbidities. As a secondary analysis, background factors and their association with depression or anxiety were explored. Results The risk of all-cause mortality was higher among men with depression compared to their counterparts without depression even after full adjustment (HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.08–1.53). For anxiety among men and anxiety or depression among women with AF, no associations were found. Cerebrovascular disease was more common among depressed AF patients. Conclusions Increased awareness of the higher mortality among men with AF and subsequent depression is called for. We suggest a tight follow-up and treatment of both ailments in clinical practice. PMID:26758363

  16. Predictive Validity of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations in Predicting All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease-Specific Mortality in a National Prospective Cohort Study of Adults in the United States.

    PubMed

    Loprinzi, Paul D; Addoh, Ovuokerie

    2016-06-01

    The predictive validity of the Pooled Cohort risk (PCR) equations for cardiovascular disease (CVD)-specific and all-cause mortality among a national sample of US adults has yet to be evaluated, which was this study's purpose. Data from the 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, with participants followed up through December 31, 2011, to ascertain mortality status via the National Death Index probabilistic algorithm. The analyzed sample included 11,171 CVD-free adults (40-79 years of age). The 10-year risk of a first atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event was determined from the PCR equations. For the entire sample encompassing 849,202 person-months, we found an incidence rate of 1.00 (95% CI, 0.93-1.07) all-cause deaths per 1000 person-months and an incidence rate of 0.15 (95% CI, 0.12-0.17) CVD-specific deaths per 1000 person-months. The unweighted median follow-up duration was 72 months. For nearly all analyses (unadjusted and adjusted models with ASCVD expressed as a continuous variable as well as dichotomized at 7.5% and 20%), the ASCVD risk score was significantly associated with all-cause and CVD-specific mortality (P<.05). In the adjusted model, the increased all-cause mortality risk ranged from 47% to 77% based on an ASCVD risk of 20% or higher and 7.5% or higher, respectively. Those with an ASCVD score of 7.5% or higher had a 3-fold increased risk of CVD-specific mortality. The 10-year predicted risk of a first ASCVD event via the PCR equations was associated with all-cause and CVD-specific mortality among those free of CVD at baseline. In this American adult sample, the PCR equations provide evidence of predictive validity. PMID:27180122

  17. Time-dependent changes in mortality and transformation risk in MDS.

    PubMed

    Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Tuechler, Heinz; Sanz, Guillermo; Schanz, Julie; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Solé, Francesc; Bennett, John M; Bowen, David; Fenaux, Pierre; Dreyfus, Francois; Kantarjian, Hagop; Kuendgen, Andrea; Malcovati, Luca; Cazzola, Mario; Cermak, Jaroslav; Fonatsch, Christa; Le Beau, Michelle M; Slovak, Marilyn L; Levis, Alessandro; Luebbert, Michael; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw; Machherndl-Spandl, Sigrid; Magalhaes, Silvia M M; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Sekeres, Mikkael A; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Stauder, Reinhard; Tauro, Sudhir; Valent, Peter; Vallespi, Teresa; van de Loosdrecht, Arjan A; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef; Greenberg, Peter L

    2016-08-18

    In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs), the evolution of risk for disease progression or death has not been systematically investigated despite being crucial for correct interpretation of prognostic risk scores. In a multicenter retrospective study, we described changes in risk over time, the consequences for basal prognostic scores, and their potential clinical implications. Major MDS prognostic risk scoring systems and their constituent individual predictors were analyzed in 7212 primary untreated MDS patients from the International Working Group for Prognosis in MDS database. Changes in risk of mortality and of leukemic transformation over time from diagnosis were described. Hazards regarding mortality and acute myeloid leukemia transformation diminished over time from diagnosis in higher-risk MDS patients, whereas they remained stable in lower-risk patients. After approximately 3.5 years, hazards in the separate risk groups became similar and were essentially equivalent after 5 years. This fact led to loss of prognostic power of different scoring systems considered, which was more pronounced for survival. Inclusion of age resulted in increased initial prognostic power for survival and less attenuation in hazards. If needed for practicability in clinical management, the differing development of risks suggested a reasonable division into lower- and higher-risk MDS based on the IPSS-R at a cutoff of 3.5 points. Our data regarding time-dependent performance of prognostic scores reflect the disparate change of risks in MDS subpopulations. Lower-risk patients at diagnosis remain lower risk whereas initially high-risk patients demonstrate decreasing risk over time. This change of risk should be considered in clinical decision making. PMID:27335276

  18. Serum carotenoid levels and risk of lung cancer death in US adults

    PubMed Central

    Min, Kyoung-bok; Min, Jin-young

    2014-01-01

    Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers worldwide and is the leading cause of cancer-induced death in the USA. Although much attention has been focused on the anti-carcinogenic effect of consuming carotenoid-containing food or supplements, the results have been inconsistent. We investigated whether serum carotenoid levels were associated with the mortality risk of lung cancer in US adults using data from a nationally representative sample. The data were obtained from the Third Nutrition and Health Examination Survey (NHANES III) database and the NHANES III Linked Mortality File. A total of 10 382 participants aged over 20 years with available serum carotenoid levels and no other missing information on questionnaires and biomarkers at baseline (NHANES III) were included in the present study. Of the 10 382 participants, 161 subjects died due to lung cancer. We found that high serum levels of alpha-carotene and beta-cryptoxanthin at baseline were significantly associated with a lower risk of lung cancer death. When we stratified the risk by current smoking status, the risk of death of current smokers was significantly decreased to 46% (95% confidence interval, 31–94%) for alpha-carotene and 61% (95% confidence interval, 19–80%) for beta-cryptoxanthin. By contrast, no association was observed among never/former smokers at baseline. High serum levels of alpha-carotene and beta-cryptoxanthin are associated with a lower risk of lung cancer death in US adults. PMID:24673770

  19. Neonatal endotoxin exposure changes neuroendocrine, cardiovascular function and mortality during polymicrobial sepsis in adult rats.

    PubMed

    Saia, Rafael Simone; Oliveira-Pelegrin, Gabriela Ravanelli; da Silva, Maria Emília Nadaletto Bonifácio; Aguila, Fábio Alves; Antunes-Rodrigues, José; Rocha, Maria José Alves; Cárnio, Evelin Capellari

    2011-08-01

    Our aim was to investigate whether neonatal LPS challenge may improve hormonal, cardiovascular response and mortality, this being a beneficial adaptation when adult rats are submitted to polymicrobial sepsis by cecal ligation and puncture (CLP). Fourteen days after birth, pups received an intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 100μg/kg) or saline. After 8-12 weeks, they were submitted to CLP, decapitated 4, 6 or 24h after surgery and blood was collected for vasopressin (AVP), corticosterone and nitrate measurement, while AVP contents were measured in neurohypophysis, supra-optic (SON) and paraventricular (PVN) nuclei. Moreover, rats had their mean arterial pressure (MAP) and heart rate (HR) evaluated, and mortality and bacteremia were determined at 24h. Septic animals with neonatal LPS exposure had higher plasma AVP and corticosterone levels, and higher c-Fos expression in SON and PVN at 24h after surgery when compared to saline treated rats. The LPS pretreated group showed increased AVP content in SON and PVN at 6h, while we did not observe any change in neurohypophyseal AVP content. The nitrate levels were significantly reduced in plasma at 6 and 24h after surgery, and in both hypothalamic nuclei only at 6h. Septic animals with neonatal LPS exposure showed increase in MAP during the initial phase of sepsis, but HR was not different from the neonatal saline group. Furthermore, neonatally LPS exposed rats showed a significant decrease in mortality rate as well as in bacteremia. These data suggest that neonatal LPS challenge is able to promote beneficial effects on neuroendocrine and cardiovascular responses to polymicrobial sepsis in adulthood. PMID:21549159

  20. Sociodemographic and psychosocial factors in childhood as predictors of adult mortality.

    PubMed Central

    Schwartz, J E; Friedman, H S; Tucker, J S; Tomlinson-Keasey, C; Wingard, D L; Criqui, M H

    1995-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Childhood sociodemographic, psychosocial, and environmental factors are often assumed to affect adult health and longevity. These relationships were prospectively tested by using the 7-decade Terman Life Cycle Study of Children With High Ability (n = 1285). METHODS: Parental socioeconomic status, childhood health, objective childhood stressors (e.g., death or divorce of parents), and childhood personality were considered as potential predictors in hazard regression analyses of longevity through 1991. RESULTS: Parental divorce during childhood predicted decreased longevity, with sex controlled. Other potential social predictors failed to show significant associations with longevity. Three dimensions of childhood personality--conscientiousness, lack of cheerfulness, and permanency of mood (males only)--predicted increased longevity. The effects of parental divorce and childhood personality were largely independent and did not account for any of the gender difference in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: A small number of childhood factors significantly predicted mortality across the life span in this sample. Further research should focus on how these psychosocial factors influence longevity. PMID:7661231

  1. High Fasting Plasma Glucose Mortality Effect: A Comparative Risk Assessment in 25–64 Years Old Iranian Population

    PubMed Central

    Peykari, Niloofar; Saeedi, Moghaddam Sahar; Djalalinia, Shirin; Kasaeian, Amir; Sheidaei, Ali; Mansouri, Anita; Mohammadi, Younes; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Mehdipour, Parinaz; Larijani, Bagher; Farzadfar, Farshad

    2016-01-01

    Background: High fasting plasma glucose (FPG) is one of the main leading risk factors of ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and chronic kidney diseases (CKDs). We estimated population attributable fraction (PAF) and attributed death of these fatal outcomes of high FPG at national and subnational levels in 25–64 years old Iranian adult. Methods: We used national and subnational data of the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey for exposure to risk factors in 2005 and 2011 among Iranian adults of 25–64 years old. For estimating the attributed death, using the death registration system data of Iran, we multiply the cause-specific PAFs by the number of outcome-specific deaths. Results: In Iran, high FPG was responsible for about 31% of attributed total deaths of IHD, stroke, and CKD in 2011. The related attributed deaths had increased from 2005 to 2011. In females, the PAFs for the effect of high FPG on IHD, stroke, and CKD were higher in 2011 than 2005 in all age groups. In males, this increase has occurred in over 45 years old. The highest PAFs of high FPG outcomes mostly related to central provinces of Iran. The central region of Iran had the highest and the southeast of the country had the lowest levels of attributed deaths. Conclusions: Considering the global 25 × 25 targets for noncommunicable disease mortality reduction, high FPG as a leading risk factor of fatal outcomes should be more targeted through the dietary, behavioral, and pharmacological interventions in Iran. PMID:27280011

  2. Past Exposure to Hepatitis B: A Risk Factor for Increase in Mortality?

    PubMed Central

    Jinjuvadia, Raxitkumar; Liangpunsakul, Suthat; Antaki, Fadi

    2013-01-01

    Background Chronic hepatitis B has been shown to increase mortality, but association of past exposure to hepatitis B and mortality has not been studied well. The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk of overall and liver-related mortality in individuals with past exposure to hepatitis B. Methods The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES III) and its related public linked mortality files were used for this study. The participants with presence of anti-HBc ± anti-HBs, in absence of HBsAg were considered to have previous exposure to hepatitis B. The overall mortality from past exposure to hepatitis B was assessed in participants without any chronic liver diseases (CLD) and in participants with chronic hepatitis C (CHC), alcoholic liver disease (ALD) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The cox proportional regression analysis was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios. Results 15650 individuals were included in the analyses. Past exposure to hepatitis B was an independent predictor of increase in overall mortality in individuals without CLD (aHR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.06–1.56, p=0.012) and those with ALD (aHR = 2.25, 95% CI 1.20–4.23, p=0.013). It was also an independent predictor of liver-related mortality in ALD cohort (aHR = 7.75, 95% CI 2.56–23.48, p<0.001). Past exposure to hepatitis B did not correlate with a significant increase in overall or liver-related mortality in CHC or NAFLD cohorts. Conclusion Past exposure to hepatitis B is associated with significant increase in overall mortality among individuals with ALD and those without CLD. PMID:23751854

  3. Hyperuricemia as risk factor for coronary heart disease incidence and mortality in the general population: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Braga, Federica; Pasqualetti, Sara; Ferraro, Simona; Panteghini, Mauro

    2016-01-01

    Previous meta-analyses reported no significant or weak association between hyperuricemia (HU) and coronary heart disease (CHD). We updated the literature search, systematically reviewing retrieved papers. The peer-reviewed literature published from 1965 to December 2014 was searched using Medline and Embase. We included prospective cohort studies involving adults (sample size ≥100) with no cardiovascular disease (CVD) and a follow-up of at least 1 year. Studies were excluded if they considered as outcome the CVD incidence/mortality without separately reporting data on CHD, did not adjusted for major confounders and if the 95% confidence interval (CI) for risk ratio (RR) was not available. Relative risk or hazard ratio estimates, with the corresponding CIs, were obtained. For CHD incidence 12 populations were included (457,915 subjects [53.7% males]). For CHD mortality seven populations were included (237,433 subjects [66.3% males]). The overall combined RR were 1.206 (CI 1.066-1.364, p=0.003) for CHD incidence and 1.209 (CI 1.003-1.457, p=0.047) for CHD mortality, respectively. Subgroup analysis showed a marginal (incidence) and not significant (mortality) association between HU and CHD in men, but an increased risk for CHD incidence and mortality in hyperuricemic women (RR 1.446, CI 1.323-1.581, p<0.0001, and RR 1.830, CI 1.066-3.139, p=0.028, respectively). The risk markedly increases for urate concentrations >7.0 mg/dL. HU appears to increase the risk of CHD events in the general population, mainly in adult women. This finding requires, however, further investigation. PMID:26351943

  4. Increased Risk of Post-Transplant Malignancy and Mortality in Transplant Tourists

    PubMed Central

    Chung, Mu-Chi; Wu, Ming-Ju; Chang, Chao-Hsiang; Muo, Chih-Hsin; Yu, Tung-Min; Ho, Hao-Chung; Shu, Kuo-Hsiung; Chung, Chi-Jung

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Information on post-transplant malignancy and mortality risk in kidney transplant tourists remains controversial and is an important concern. The present study aimed to evaluate the incidence of post-transplant malignancy and mortality risk between tourists and domestic transplant recipients using the claims data from Taiwan's universal health insurance. A retrospective study was performed on 2394 tourists and 1956 domestic recipients. Post-transplant malignancy and mortality were defined from the catastrophic illness patient registry by using the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision. Cox proportional hazard regression and Kaplan–Meier curves were used for the analyses. The incidence for post-transplant de novo malignancy in the tourist group was 1.8-fold higher than that of the domestic group (21.8 vs 12.1 per 1000 person-years). The overall cancer recurrence rate was approximately 11%. The top 3 post-transplant malignancies, in decreasing order, were urinary tract, kidney, and liver cancers, regardless of the recipient type. Compared with domestic recipients, there was significant higher mortality risk in transplant tourists (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.0–1.5). In addition, those with either pre-transplant or post-transplant malignancies were associated with increased mortality risk. We suggest that a sufficient waiting period for patients with pre-transplant malignancies should be better emphasized to eliminate recurrence, and transplant tourists should be discouraged because of the possibility of higher post-transplant de novo malignancy occurrence and mortality. PMID:25546686

  5. Local avian density influences risk of mortality from window strikes.

    PubMed

    Sabo, Ann M; Hagemeyer, Natasha D G; Lahey, Ally S; Walters, Eric L

    2016-01-01

    Up to a billion birds die per year in North America as a result of striking windows. Both transparent and reflective glass panes are a cause for concern, misleading birds by either acting as invisible, impenetrable barriers to desired resources, or reflecting those resources over a large surface area. A high number of window strikes occur during migration, but little is known about the factors of susceptibility, or whether particular avian taxa are more vulnerable than others. We report on a study of window strikes and mist-netting data at the Virginia Zoological Park (Norfolk, Virginia, USA), conducted in the autumn of 2013 and 2014. We focused on three factors likely to contribute to an individual's predisposition to collide with windows: (i) taxonomic classification, (ii) age, and (iii) migrant vs. resident status. Thrushes, dominated by the partial migrant American Robin (Turdus migratorius), were significantly less likely to strike glass than be sampled in mist nets (χ(2) = 9.21, p = 0.002), while wood-warblers (Parulidae) were more likely to strike than expected (χ(2) = 13.55, p < 0.001). The proportion of juveniles striking windows (45.4%) was not significantly different (χ(2) = 0.05, p = 0.827) than the population of juvenile birds naturally occurring at the zoo (48.8%). Migrants, however, were significantly more susceptible to window strikes than residents (χ(2) = 6.35, p = 0.012). Our results suggest that resident birds are able to learn to avoid and thus reduce their likelihood of striking windows; this intrinsic risk factor may help explain the apparent susceptibility of certain taxa to window strikes. PMID:27366656

  6. Local avian density influences risk of mortality from window strikes

    PubMed Central

    Sabo, Ann M.; Hagemeyer, Natasha D.G.; Lahey, Ally S.

    2016-01-01

    Up to a billion birds die per year in North America as a result of striking windows. Both transparent and reflective glass panes are a cause for concern, misleading birds by either acting as invisible, impenetrable barriers to desired resources, or reflecting those resources over a large surface area. A high number of window strikes occur during migration, but little is known about the factors of susceptibility, or whether particular avian taxa are more vulnerable than others. We report on a study of window strikes and mist-netting data at the Virginia Zoological Park (Norfolk, Virginia, USA), conducted in the autumn of 2013 and 2014. We focused on three factors likely to contribute to an individual’s predisposition to collide with windows: (i) taxonomic classification, (ii) age, and (iii) migrant vs. resident status. Thrushes, dominated by the partial migrant American Robin (Turdus migratorius), were significantly less likely to strike glass than be sampled in mist nets (χ2 = 9.21, p = 0.002), while wood-warblers (Parulidae) were more likely to strike than expected (χ2 = 13.55, p < 0.001). The proportion of juveniles striking windows (45.4%) was not significantly different (χ2 = 0.05, p = 0.827) than the population of juvenile birds naturally occurring at the zoo (48.8%). Migrants, however, were significantly more susceptible to window strikes than residents (χ2 = 6.35, p = 0.012). Our results suggest that resident birds are able to learn to avoid and thus reduce their likelihood of striking windows; this intrinsic risk factor may help explain the apparent susceptibility of certain taxa to window strikes. PMID:27366656

  7. COPD and risk of venous thromboembolism and mortality in a general population.

    PubMed

    Børvik, Trond; Brækkan, Sigrid K; Enga, Kristin; Schirmer, Henrik; Brodin, Ellen E; Melbye, Hasse; Hansen, John-Bjarne

    2016-02-01

    The relationship between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been scarcely studied in the general population. We aimed to investigate the association between COPD and risk of VTE and mortality in a population-based cohort.Spirometry was conducted in 8646 males and females, participating in the fifth (2001-02) and sixth (2007-08) surveys of the Tromsø Study. Incident VTE events during follow-up were registered from the date of inclusion to December 31, 2011. Cox-regression models with COPD stages and confounders as time varying covariates were used to calculate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for VTE and all-cause mortality.During a median follow-up of 6.2 years, 215 subjects developed VTE. Subjects with COPD stage III/IV had a two-fold higher risk of secondary VTE compared to subjects with normal airflow (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.02-4.10). COPD patients, particularly those with stage III/IV disease, with VTE had a higher mortality rate than COPD patients without VTE (50.2% versus 5.6% per year).Our findings suggest that patients with severe COPD may have increased risk of secondary VTE, and that COPD patients with VTE have a higher mortality rate than COPD patients without VTE. PMID:26585434

  8. Developing a genetic fuzzy system for risk assessment of mortality after cardiac surgery.

    PubMed

    Nouei, Mahyar Taghizadeh; Kamyad, Ali Vahidian; Sarzaeem, MahmoodReza; Ghazalbash, Somayeh

    2014-10-01

    Cardiac events could be taken into account as the leading causes of death throughout the globe. Such events also trigger an undesirable increase in what treatment procedures cost. Despite the giant leaps in technological development in heart surgery, coronary surgery still carries the high risk of the mortality. Besides, there is still a long way ahead to accurately predict and assess the mortality risk. This study is an attempt to develop an expert system for the risk assessment of mortality following the cardiac surgery. The developed system involves three main steps. In the first step, a filtering feature selection method is applied to select the best features. In the second step, an ad hoc data-driven method is utilized to generate the preliminary fuzzy inference system. Finally, a hybrid optimization method is presented to select the optimum subset of the rules. The study relies on 1,811 samples to evaluate the diagnosis performance of the proposed system. The obtained classification accuracy is very promising with regard to other benchmark classification methods including binary logistic regression (LR) and multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) with the same attributes. The developed system leads to 100% sensitivity and 84.7% specificity, while LR and MLP methods statistically come up with lower figures (65, 78.6 and 65%, 75.8%), respectively. Now, a fuzzy supportive tool can be potentially taken as an alternative for the current mortality risk assessment system that are applied in coronary surgeries, and are chiefly based on crisp database. PMID:25119238

  9. Life span decrements in fluid intelligence and processing speed predict mortality risk.

    PubMed

    Aichele, Stephen; Rabbitt, Patrick; Ghisletta, Paolo

    2015-09-01

    We examined life span changes in 5 domains of cognitive performance as predictive of mortality risk. Data came from the Manchester Longitudinal Study of Cognition, a 20-plus-year investigation of 6,203 individuals ages 42-97 years. Cognitive domains were general crystallized intelligence, general fluid intelligence, verbal memory, visuospatial memory, and processing speed. Life span decrements were evident across these domains, controlling for baseline performance at age 70 and adjusting for retest effects. Survival analyses stratified by sex and conducted independently by cognitive domain showed that lower baseline performance levels in all domains-and larger life span decrements in general fluid intelligence and processing speed-were predictive of increased mortality risk for both women and men. Critically, analyses of the combined predictive power of cognitive performance variables showed that baseline levels of processing speed (in women) and general fluid intelligence (in men), and decrements in processing speed (in women and in men) and general fluid intelligence (in women), accounted for most of the explained variation in mortality risk. In light of recent evidence from brain-imaging studies, we speculate that cognitive abilities closely linked to cerebral white matter integrity (such as processing speed and general fluid intelligence) may represent particularly sensitive markers of mortality risk. In addition, we presume that greater complexity in cognition-survival associations observed in women (in analyses incorporating all cognitive predictors) may be a consequence of longer and more variable cognitive declines in women relative to men. PMID:26098167

  10. Pathways to Health Risk Exposure in Adult Film Performers

    PubMed Central

    Ryan, Gery; Margold, William; Torres, Jacqueline; Gelberg, Lillian

    2008-01-01

    Despite being part of a large and legal industry in Los Angeles, little is known about adult film performers’ exposure to health risks and when and how these risks might occur. The objective was to identify exposure to physical, mental, and social health risks and the pathways to such risks among adult film performers and to determine how risks differ between different types of performers, such as men and women. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 18 female and ten male performers as well as two key informants from the industry. Performers and key informants were recruited through Protecting Adult Welfare, adult film venues, and snowball sampling. Performers engaged in risky health behaviors that included high-risk sexual acts that are unprotected, substance abuse, and body enhancement. They are exposed to physical trauma on the film set. Many entered and left the industry with financial insecurity and suffered from mental health problems. Women were more likely than men to be exposed to health risks. Adult film performers, especially women, are exposed to health risks that accumulate over time and that are not limited to sexually transmitted diseases. PMID:18709554

  11. Pathways to health risk exposure in adult film performers.

    PubMed

    Grudzen, Corita R; Ryan, Gery; Margold, William; Torres, Jacqueline; Gelberg, Lillian

    2009-01-01

    Despite being part of a large and legal industry in Los Angeles, little is known about adult film performers' exposure to health risks and when and how these risks might occur. The objective was to identify exposure to physical, mental, and social health risks and the pathways to such risks among adult film performers and to determine how risks differ between different types of performers, such as men and women. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 18 female and ten male performers as well as two key informants from the industry. Performers and key informants were recruited through Protecting Adult Welfare, adult film venues, and snowball sampling. Performers engaged in risky health behaviors that included high-risk sexual acts that are unprotected, substance abuse, and body enhancement. They are exposed to physical trauma on the film set. Many entered and left the industry with financial insecurity and suffered from mental health problems. Women were more likely than men to be exposed to health risks. Adult film performers, especially women, are exposed to health risks that accumulate over time and that are not limited to sexually transmitted diseases. PMID:18709554

  12. Estimating adult mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure in China with assimilated PM2.5 concentrations based on a ground monitoring network.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jun; Han, Yiqun; Tang, Xiao; Zhu, Jiang; Zhu, Tong

    2016-10-15

    Estimates of mortality attributable to air pollution in China showed large differences among various studies, mainly arising from differences in exposure assessments and choice of the concentration-response function. The Chinese national monitoring network recently has included direct measurements of PM2.5 (particulates with aerodynamic diameter≤2.5μm), providing a potentially more reliable exposure assessment. We estimated adult premature mortalities due to PM2.5 across China in 2013 and mortality benefits for scenarios in which China meets the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) and three interim targets (ITs) for PM2.5. Attributable adult mortalities were estimated with assimilated spatial PM2.5 concentrations across China based on direct PM2.5 measurements from 506 PM2.5 monitoring sites and a regional air quality model, and using the integrated exposure-response model. Our results show that in China, 83% of the population lived in areas where PM2.5 concentrations exceeded the Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard of 35μgm(-3). Premature mortalities attributed to PM2.5 nationwide were 1.37 million in total, and 0.69, 0.38, 0.13, and 0.17 million for stroke, ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, respectively. High population density areas exhibited the highest health risks attributed to air pollution. The mortality benefits will be 23%, 39%, 66%, and 83% of the total present premature mortalities (1.37 million mortalities) when PM2.5 concentrations in China meet the WHO IT-1, IT-2, IT-3, and AQG, respectively. Our study shows that integrating PM2.5 concentrations based on the national monitoring network with the regional air quality model provides an advanced exposure estimate method with potentials to further improve the accuracy for mortality estimate; much higher health benefits could be achieved if China adopted more stringent WHO guidelines for PM2.5. PMID:27266521

  13. Macrolide antibiotics and the risk of ventricular arrhythmia in older adults

    PubMed Central

    Trac, Mai H.; McArthur, Eric; Jandoc, Racquel; Dixon, Stephanie N.; Nash, Danielle M.; Hackam, Daniel G.; Garg, Amit X.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Many respiratory tract infections are treated with macrolide antibiotics. Regulatory agencies warn that these antibiotics increase the risk of ventricular arrhythmia. We examined the 30-day risk of ventricular arrhythmia and all-cause mortality associated with macrolide antibiotics relative to nonmacrolide antibiotics. Methods: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study involving older adults (age > 65 yr) with a new prescription for an oral macrolide antibiotic (azithromycin, clarithromycin or erythromycin) in Ontario from 2002 to 2013. Our primary outcome was a hospital encounter with ventricular arrhythmia within 30 days after a new prescription. Our secondary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. We matched patients 1:1 using propensity scores to patients prescribed nonmacrolide antibiotics (amoxicillin, cefuroxime or levofloxacin). We used conditional logistic regression to measure the association between macrolide exposure and outcomes, and repeated the analysis in 4 subgroups defined by the presence or absence of chronic kidney disease, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease and concurrent use of a drug known to prolong the QT interval. Results: Compared with nonmacrolide antibiotics, macrolide antibiotics were not associated with a higher risk of ventricular arrhythmia (0.03% v. 0.03%; relative risk [RR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83–1.36) and were associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (0.62% v. 0.76%; RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.78–0.86). These associations were similar in all subgroups. Interpretation: Among older adults, macrolide antibiotics were not associated with a higher 30-day risk of ventricular arrhythmia than nonmacrolide antibiotics. These findings suggest that current warnings from the US Food and Drug Administration may be overstated. PMID:26903359

  14. Number of Teeth and Mortality Risk in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging

    PubMed Central

    Padilha, Dalva Maria Pereira; Hilgert, Juliana Balbinot; Hugo, Fernando Neves; Bós, Ângelo José Gonçalves; Ferrucci, Luigi

    2016-01-01

    Background Findings from several studies suggested an association between oral health and several health outcomes including cardiovascular disease, aspiration pneumonia, malnutrition, poor quality of life, and mortality. Using data from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA), we tested the hypothesis that number of teeth is indicative of mortality risk independent of other confounders. Methods Dentists conducted a standardized oral examination that included tooth count, tooth with coronal and cervical caries count, and gingival and periodontal index. Blood tests used in the analysis included fasting glucose, oral glucose tolerance test, serum low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, and white blood cell counts. Physical activity, skin fold thickness, body mass index and chronic diseases were also evaluated. Results Of the 500 BLSA participants evaluated, 198 died an average of 130 (±75) months postdental evaluation, and 302 survivors were followed for a mean of 185 (±90) months. Based on multivariate Cox regression models, being edentulous or having than 20 teeth was independently associated with mortality. Conclusion The results of this study support the notion that number of teeth is a significant and independent risk indicator for early mortality. These findings suggest that the improvement of oral health may have a positive impact on general health and may delay mortality. PMID:18693229

  15. Emotion Suppression and Mortality Risk Over a 12-Year Follow-up

    PubMed Central

    Chapman, Benjamin P.; Fiscella, Kevin; Kawachi, Ichiro; Duberstein, Paul; Muennig, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objective Suppression of emotion has long been suspected to have a role in health, but empirical work has yielded mixed findings. We examined the association between emotion suppression and all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality over 12 years of follow-up in a nationally representative US sample. Methods We used the 2008 General Social Survey-National Death Index (NDI) cohort, which included an emotion suppression scale administered to 729 people in 1996. Prospective mortality follow up between 1996 and 2008 of 111 deaths (37 by cardiovascular disease, 34 by cancer) was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, gender, education, and minority race/ethnicity. Results The 75th vs. 25th percentile on the emotional suppression score was associated with hazard ratio (HR) of 1.35 (95% Confidence Interval [95% CI] = 1.00, 1.82; p = .049) for all-cause mortality. For cancer and cardiovascular disease mortality, the HRs were 1.70 (95% CI = 1.01, 2.88, p = 0.049) and 1.47 (95% CI = .87, 2.47, p = 0.148) respectively. Conclusions Emotion suppression may convey risk for earlier death, including death from cancer. Further work is needed to better understand the biopsychosocial mechanisms for this risk, as well as the nature of associations between suppression and different forms of mortality. PMID:24119947

  16. Practical prediction model for the risk of 2-year mortality of individuals in the general population.

    PubMed

    Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander; Gautam, Shiva; Brown, Robert S

    2016-04-01

    This study proposed to validate a prediction model and risk-stratification tool of 2-year mortality rates of individuals in the general population suitable for office practice use. A risk indicator (R) derived from data in the literature was based on only 6 variables: to calculate R for an individual, starting with 0, for each year of age above 60, add 0.14; for a male, add 0.9; for diabetes mellitus, add 0.7; for albuminuria >30 mg/g of creatinine, add 0.7; for stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), add 0.9; for cardiovascular disease (CVD), add 1.4; or for both CKD and CVD, add 1.7. We developed a univariate logistic regression model predicting 2-year individual mortality rates. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data set (1999-2004 with deaths through 2006) was used as the target for validation. These 12,515 subjects had a mean age of 48.9±18.1 years, 48% males, 9.5% diabetes, 11.7% albuminuria, 6.8% CVD, 5.4% CKD, and 2.8% both CKD and CVD. Using the risk indicator R alone to predict mortality demonstrated good performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.84. Dividing subjects into low-risk (R=0-1.0), low intermediate risk (R>1.0-3.0), high intermediate risk (R>3.0-5.0) or high-risk (R>5.0) categories predicted 2-year mortality rates of 0.52%, 1.44%, 5.19% and 15.24%, respectively, by the prediction model compared with actual mortality rates of 0.29%, 2.48%, 5.13% and 13.40%, respectively. We have validated a model of risk stratification using easily identified clinical characteristics to predict 2-year mortality rates of individuals in the general population. The model demonstrated performance adequate for its potential use for clinical practice and research decisions. PMID:26951378

  17. Childhood Cumulative Risk Exposure and Adult Amygdala Volume and Function.

    PubMed

    Evans, Gary W; Swain, James E; King, Anthony P; Wang, Xin; Javanbakht, Arash; Ho, S Shaun; Angstadt, Michael; Phan, K Luan; Xie, Hong; Liberzon, Israel

    2016-06-01

    Considerable work indicates that early cumulative risk exposure is aversive to human development, but very little research has examined the neurological underpinnings of these robust findings. This study investigates amygdala volume and reactivity to facial stimuli among adults (mean 23.7 years of age, n = 54) as a function of cumulative risk exposure during childhood (9 and 13 years of age). In addition, we test to determine whether expected cumulative risk elevations in amygdala volume would mediate functional reactivity of the amygdala during socioemotional processing. Risks included substandard housing quality, noise, crowding, family turmoil, child separation from family, and violence. Total and left hemisphere adult amygdala volumes were positively related to cumulative risk exposure during childhood. The links between childhood cumulative risk exposure and elevated amygdala responses to emotionally neutral facial stimuli in adulthood were mediated by the corresponding amygdala volumes. Cumulative risk exposure in later adolescence (17 years of age), however, was unrelated to subsequent adult amygdala volume or function. Physical and socioemotional risk exposures early in life appear to alter amygdala development, rendering adults more reactive to ambiguous stimuli such as neutral faces. These stress-related differences in childhood amygdala development might contribute to the well-documented psychological distress as a function of early risk exposure. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26469872

  18. Lifestyle Modification for the Prevention of Morbidity and Mortality in Adult Congenital Heart Disease.

    PubMed

    Rosenthal, Todd M; Leung, Steven T; Ahmad, Raza; Young, Thomas; Lavie, Carl J; Moodie, Douglas S; Shah, Sangeeta

    2016-01-01

    Patients with adult congenital heart disease are now living longer due to the advancements in medicine. As such, these patients are now experiencing morbidities that are commonly seen in the general population such as myocardial infarction, heart failure, and arrhythmias. Often times these problems can be attributed to the underlying adult congenital heart disease; however, a patient making poor lifestyle choices only compounds their risk for these life-threatening comorbidities. The aim of this article is to propose recommendations for health care providers to follow with this specific patient population. These recommendations encompass the importance of proper caloric intake, methods of weight loss (including behavioral therapy, drugs, and surgeries), practical recommendations for physical activity, and the implications of substance abuse. Being proactive and addressing important lifestyle choices in this population can reduce comorbidities and, therefore, medical cost. PMID:26931766

  19. The Huge Reduction in Adult Male Mortality in Belarus and Russia: Is It Attributable to Anti-Alcohol Measures?

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aim Harmful alcohol consumption has long been recognized as being the major determinant of male premature mortality in the European countries of the former USSR. Our focus here is on Belarus and Russia, two Slavic countries which continue to suffer enormously from the burden of the harmful consumption of alcohol. However, after a long period of deterioration, mortality trends in these countries have been improving over the past decade. We aim to investigate to what extent the recent declines in adult mortality in Belarus and Russia are attributable to the anti-alcohol measures introduced in these two countries in the 2000s. Data and Methods We rely on the detailed cause-specific mortality series for the period 1980–2013. Our analysis focuses on the male population, and considers only a limited number of causes of death which we label as being alcohol-related: accidental poisoning by alcohol, liver cirrhosis, ischemic heart diseases, stroke, transportation accidents, and other external causes. For each of these causes we computed age-standardized death rates. The life table decomposition method was used to determine the age groups and the causes of death responsible for changes in life expectancy over time. Conclusion Our results do not lead us to conclude that the schedule of anti-alcohol measures corresponds to the schedule of mortality changes. The continuous reduction in adult male mortality seen in Belarus and Russia cannot be fully explained by the anti-alcohol policies implemented in these countries, although these policies likely contributed to the large mortality reductions observed in Belarus and Russia in 2005–2006 and in Belarus in 2012. Thus, the effects of these policies appear to have been modest. We argue that the anti-alcohol measures implemented in Belarus and Russia simply coincided with fluctuations in alcohol-related mortality which originated in the past. If these trends had not been underway already, these huge mortality

  20. Outcomes and Risk Factors for Mortality among Patients Treated with Carbapenems for Klebsiella spp. Bacteremia

    PubMed Central

    Biehle, Lauren R.; Cottreau, Jessica M.; Thompson, David J.; Filipek, Rachel L.; O’Donnell, J. Nicholas; Lasco, Todd M.; Mahoney, Monica V.; Hirsch, Elizabeth B.

    2015-01-01

    Background Extensive dissemination of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae has led to increased resistance among Klebsiella species. Carbapenems are used as a last resort against resistant pathogens, but carbapenemase production can lead to therapy failure. Identification of risk factors for mortality and assessment of current susceptibility breakpoints are valuable for improving patient outcomes. Aim The objective of this study was to evaluate outcomes and risk factors for mortality among patients treated with carbapenems for Klebsiella spp. bacteremia. Methods Patients hospitalized between 2006 and 2012 with blood cultures positive for Klebsiella spp. who received ≥ 48 hours of carbapenem treatment within 72 hours of positive culture were included in this retrospective study. Patient data were retrieved from electronic medical records. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for 30-day hospital mortality. Results One hundred seven patients were included. The mean patient age was 61.5 years and the median APACHE II score was 13 ± 6.2. Overall, 30-day hospital mortality was 9.3%. After adjusting for confounding variables, 30-day mortality was associated with baseline APACHE II score (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.01–1.35; P = 0.03), length of stay prior to index culture (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00–1.06; P = 0.04), and carbapenem non-susceptible (imipenem or meropenem MIC > 1 mg/L) infection (OR, 9.08; 95% CI, 1.17–70.51; P = 0.04). Conclusions Baseline severity of illness and length of stay prior to culture were associated with 30-day mortality and should be considered when treating patients with Klebsiella bacteremia. These data support the change in carbapenem breakpoints for Klebsiella species. PMID:26618357

  1. Air pollution and mortality in The Netherlands: are the elderly more at risk?

    PubMed

    Fischer, P; Hoek, G; Brunekreef, B; Verhoeff, A; van Wijnen, J

    2003-05-01

    The association between daily mortality and short-term variations in the ambient levels of ozone (O3), black smoke (BS), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter was studied in The Netherlands. Daily total and cause-specific mortality counts (cardiovascular, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and pneumonia), air quality, temperature, relative humidity and influenza data were obtained from 1986-1994. The relationship between daily mortality and air pollution was modelled using Poisson regression analysis. All pollution mortality associations were adjusted for potential confounding due to long-term trends, seasonal trends, influenza epidemics, ambient temperature, ambient relative humidity, day of the week and holidays, using generalised additive models. Statistically significant associations were mostly found in the elderly, that is the age categories of 65-74 and > or = 75 yrs for the pollutants PM10 (particles with a 50%, cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 microm), BS, SO2, NO2 and CO. This may partly be due to a better precision of relative risk (RR) estimates for the larger numbers of deaths in these age groups. Significant associations for those < 65 yrs were found for O3 (total and COPD mortality), PM10 (pneumonia), NO2 (pneumonia) and CO (pneumonia). RR estimates for deaths between 45-65 yrs tended to be smaller than those in > 65 yrs, with the exception of ozone; for cardiovascular mortality the RR for PM10, O3 and CO were similar in these age groups. In conclusion, larger relative risks for air pollution were mostly found in the elderly except for ozone and for death-cause pneumonia which showed larger relative risk in younger age groups. PMID:12762572

  2. Association of Age, Systolic Blood Pressure, and Heart Rate with Adult Morbidity and Mortality after Urgent Care Visits

    PubMed Central

    Hart, James; Woodruff, Michael; Joy, Elizabeth; Dalto, Joseph; Snow, Gregory; Srivastava, Rajendu; Isaacson, Brad; Allen, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Little data exists to help urgent care (UC) clinicians predict morbidity and mortality risk. Age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and heart rate (HR) are easily obtainable and have been used in other settings to predict short-term risk of deterioration. We hypothesized that there is a relationship between advancing age, SBP, HR, and short-term health outcomes in the UC setting. Methods We collected retrospective data from 28 UC clinics and 22 hospitals in the Intermountain Healthcare system between years 2008–2013. Adult patients (≥18 years) were included if they had a unique UC visit and HR or SBP data. Three endpoints following UC visit were assessed: emergency department (ED) visit within three days, hospitalization within three days, and death within seven days. We analyzed associations between age, SBP, HR and endpoints using local regression with a binomial likelihood. Five age groups were chosen from previously published national surveys. Vital sign (VS) distributions were determined for each age group, and the central tendency was compared against previously published norms (90–120mmHg for SBP and 60–100bpm for HR.) Results A total of 1,720,207 encounters (714,339 unique patients) met the inclusion criteria; 51,446 encounters (2.99%) had ED visit within three days; 12,397 (0.72%) experienced hospitalization within three days; 302 (0.02%) died within seven days of UC visit. Heart rate and SBP combined with advanced age predicted the probability of ED visit (p<0.0001) and hospitalization (p<0.0001) following UC visit. Significant associations between advancing age and death (p<0.0001), and VS and death (p<0.0001) were observed. Odds ratios of risk were highest for elderly patients with lower SBP or higher HR. Observed distributions of SBP were higher than published normal ranges for all age groups. Conclusion Among adults seeking care in the UC, associations between HR and SBP and likelihood of ED visits and hospitalization were more

  3. Obesity Indexes and Total Mortality among Elderly Subjects at High Cardiovascular Risk: The PREDIMED Study

    PubMed Central

    Martínez-González, Miguel A.; García-Arellano, Ana; Toledo, Estefanía; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Bulló, Mónica; Corella, Dolores; Fito, Montserrat; Ros, Emilio; Lamuela-Raventós, Rosa Maria; Rekondo, Javier; Gómez-Gracia, Enrique; Fiol, Miquel; Santos-Lozano, Jose Manuel; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Martínez, J. Alfredo; Eguaras, Sonia; Sáez-Tormo, Guillermo; Pintó, Xavier; Estruch, Ramon

    2014-01-01

    Background Different indexes of regional adiposity have been proposed for identifying persons at higher risk of death. Studies specifically assessing these indexes in large cohorts are scarce. It would also be interesting to know whether a dietary intervention may counterbalance the adverse effects of adiposity on mortality. Methods We assessed the association of four different anthropometric indexes (waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI) and height) with all-cause mortality in 7447 participants at high cardiovascular risk from the PREDIMED trial. Forty three percent of them were men (55 to 80 years) and 57% were women (60 to 80 years). All of them were initially free of cardiovascular disease. The recruitment took place in 11 recruiting centers between 2003 and 2009. Results After adjusting for age, sex, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, intervention group, family history of coronary heart disease, and leisure-time physical activity, WC and WHtR were found to be directly associated with a higher mortality after 4.8 years median follow-up. The multivariable-adjusted HRs for mortality of WHtR (cut-off points: 0.60, 0.65, 0.70) were 1.02 (0.78–1.34), 1.30 (0.97–1.75) and 1.55 (1.06–2.26). When we used WC (cut-off points: 100, 105 and 110 cm), the multivariable adjusted Hazard Ratios (HRs) for mortality were 1.18 (0.88–1.59), 1.02 (0.74–1.41) and 1.57 (1.19–2.08). In all analyses, BMI exhibited weaker associations with mortality than WC or WHtR. The direct association between WHtR and overall mortality was consistent within each of the three intervention arms of the trial. Conclusions Our study adds further support to a stronger association of abdominal obesity than BMI with total mortality among elderly subjects at high risk of cardiovascular disease. We did not find evidence to support that the PREDIMED intervention was able to counterbalance the harmful effects of increased adiposity on total mortality. Trial

  4. Depression and Psychosocial Risk Factors among Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Singapore.

    PubMed

    Li, Jinhui; Theng, Yin-Leng; Foo, Schubert

    2015-12-01

    Depression is the most common mental and emotional disorder that emerges in the late stages of life. It is closely associated with poor health, disability, mortality, and suicide. The study examines the risk factors of depression in late life, especially the psychosocial factors, among a sample comprising 162 community-dwelling Singaporean adults aged 65 years and above. An interview-based structured survey was conducted in multiple senior activity centers located in different parts of Singapore. Results from the hierarchical regression analysis show that 32.9% of the variance in geriatric depression can be explained by the three psychosocial factors, among which loneliness, perceived social support, and the emotional regulation component of resilience are significantly associated with depression in older adults. Large-scale studies should be conducted to confirm the findings of the present study, and to further examine the predictive effects of these psychosocial factors on depression among older adults. PMID:26428668

  5. Chronic arsenic exposure and risk of infant mortality in two areas of Chile.

    PubMed Central

    Hopenhayn-Rich, C; Browning, S R; Hertz-Picciotto, I; Ferreccio, C; Peralta, C; Gibb, H

    2000-01-01

    Chronic arsenic exposure has been associated with a range of neurologic, vascular, dermatologic, and carcinogenic effects. However, limited research has been directed at the association of arsenic exposure and human reproductive health outcomes. The principal aim of this study was to investigate the trends in infant mortality between two geographic locations in Chile: Antofagasta, which has a well-documented history of arsenic exposure from naturally contaminated water, and Valparaíso, a comparable low-exposure city. The arsenic concentration in Antofagasta's public drinking water supply rose substantially in 1958 with the introduction of a new water source, and remained elevated until 1970. We used a retrospective study design to examine time and location patterns in infant mortality between 1950 and 1996, using univariate statistics, graphical techniques, and Poisson regression analysis. Results of the study document the general declines in late fetal and infant mortality over the study period in both locations. The data also indicate an elevation of the late fetal, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality rates for Antofagasta, relative to Valparaíso, for specific time periods, which generally coincide with the period of highest arsenic concentration in the drinking water of Antofagasta. Poisson regression analysis yielded an elevated and significant association between arsenic exposure and late fetal mortality [rate ratio (RR) = 1.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.5-1.9], neonatal mortality (RR = 1.53; CI, 1.4-1.7), and postneonatal mortality (RR = 1.26; CI, 1.2-1.3) after adjustment for location and calendar time. The findings from this investigation may support a role for arsenic exposure in increasing the risk of late fetal and infant mortality. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 PMID:10903622

  6. Risk Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Patients with Cardiac Arrhythmias Using Random Survival Forest

    PubMed Central

    Miao, Fen; Cai, Yun-Peng; Zhang, Yu-Xiao; Li, Ye; Zhang, Yuan-Ting

    2015-01-01

    Existing models for predicting mortality based on traditional Cox proportional hazard approach (CPH) often have low prediction accuracy. This paper aims to develop a clinical risk model with good accuracy for predicting 1-year mortality in cardiac arrhythmias patients using random survival forest (RSF), a robust approach for survival analysis. 10,488 cardiac arrhythmias patients available in the public MIMIC II clinical database were investigated, with 3,452 deaths occurring within 1-year followups. Forty risk factors including demographics and clinical and laboratory information and antiarrhythmic agents were analyzed as potential predictors of all-cause mortality. RSF was adopted to build a comprehensive survival model and a simplified risk model composed of 14 top risk factors. The built comprehensive model achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.81 measured by c-statistic with 10-fold cross validation. The simplified risk model also achieved a good accuracy of 0.799. Both results outperformed traditional CPH (which achieved a c-statistic of 0.733 for the comprehensive model and 0.718 for the simplified model). Moreover, various factors are observed to have nonlinear impact on cardiac arrhythmias prognosis. As a result, RSF based model which took nonlinearity into account significantly outperformed traditional Cox proportional hazard model and has great potential to be a more effective approach for survival analysis. PMID:26379761

  7. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of hexavalent chromium based on updated mortality for Painesville chromate production workers.

    PubMed

    Proctor, Deborah M; Suh, Mina; Mittal, Liz; Hirsch, Shawn; Valdes Salgado, Raydel; Bartlett, Chris; Van Landingham, Cynthia; Rohr, Annette; Crump, Kenny

    2016-01-01

    The exposure-response for hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI))-induced lung cancer among workers of the Painesville Ohio chromate production facility has been used internationally for quantitative risk assessment of environmental and occupational exposures to airborne Cr(VI). We updated the mortality of 714 Painesville workers (including 198 short-term workers) through December 2011, reconstructed exposures, and conducted exposure-response modeling using Poisson and Cox regressions to provide quantitative lung cancer risk estimates. The average length of follow-up was 34.4 years with 24,535 person-years at risk. Lung cancer was significantly increased for the cohort (standardized mortality ratio (SMR)=186; 95% confidence interval (CI) 145-228), for those hired before 1959, those with >30-year tenure, and those with cumulative exposure >1.41 mg/m(3)-years or highest monthly exposures >0.26 mg/m(3). Of the models assessed, the linear Cox model with unlagged cumulative exposure provided the best fit and was preferred. Smoking and age at hire were also significant predictors of lung cancer mortality. Adjusting for these variables, the occupational unit risk was 0.00166 (95% CI 0.000713-0.00349), and the environmental unit risk was 0.00832 (95% CI 0.00359-0.0174), which are 20% and 15% lower, respectively, than values developed in a previous study of this cohort. PMID:26669850

  8. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of hexavalent chromium based on updated mortality for Painesville chromate production workers

    PubMed Central

    Proctor, Deborah M; Suh, Mina; Mittal, Liz; Hirsch, Shawn; Valdes Salgado, Raydel; Bartlett, Chris; Van Landingham, Cynthia; Rohr, Annette; Crump, Kenny

    2016-01-01

    The exposure-response for hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI))-induced lung cancer among workers of the Painesville Ohio chromate production facility has been used internationally for quantitative risk assessment of environmental and occupational exposures to airborne Cr(VI). We updated the mortality of 714 Painesville workers (including 198 short-term workers) through December 2011, reconstructed exposures, and conducted exposure-response modeling using Poisson and Cox regressions to provide quantitative lung cancer risk estimates. The average length of follow-up was 34.4 years with 24,535 person-years at risk. Lung cancer was significantly increased for the cohort (standardized mortality ratio (SMR)=186; 95% confidence interval (CI) 145–228), for those hired before 1959, those with >30-year tenure, and those with cumulative exposure >1.41 mg/m3-years or highest monthly exposures >0.26 mg/m3. Of the models assessed, the linear Cox model with unlagged cumulative exposure provided the best fit and was preferred. Smoking and age at hire were also significant predictors of lung cancer mortality. Adjusting for these variables, the occupational unit risk was 0.00166 (95% CI 0.000713–0.00349), and the environmental unit risk was 0.00832 (95% CI 0.00359–0.0174), which are 20% and 15% lower, respectively, than values developed in a previous study of this cohort. PMID:26669850

  9. Fatty acids linked to cardiovascular mortality are associated with risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Ebbesson, Sven O. E.; Voruganti, Venkata S.; Higgins, Paul B.; Fabsitz, Richard R.; Ebbesson, Lars O.; Laston, Sandra; Harris, William S.; Kennish, John; Umans, Benjamin D.; Wang, Hong; Devereux, Richard B.; Okin, Peter M.; Weissman, Neil J.; MacCluer, Jean W.; Umans, Jason G.; Howard, Barbara V.

    2015-01-01

    Background Although saturated fatty acids (FAs) have been linked to cardiovascular mortality, it is not clear whether this outcome is attributable solely to their effects on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) or whether other risk factors are also associated with FAs. The Western Alaskan Native population, with its rapidly changing lifestyles, shift in diet from unsaturated to saturated fatty acids and dramatic increase in cardiovascular disease (CVD), presents an opportunity to elucidate any associations between specific FAs and known CVD risk factors. Objective We tested the hypothesis that the specific FAs previously identified as related to CVD mortality are also associated with individual CVD risk factors. Methods In this community-based, cross-sectional study, relative proportions of FAs in plasma and red blood cell membranes were compared with CVD risk factors in a sample of 758 men and women aged ≥35 years. Linear regression analyses were used to analyze relations between specific FAs and CVD risk factors (LDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, body mass index, fasting glucose and fasting insulin, 2-hour glucose and 2-hour insulin). Results The specific saturated FAs previously identified as related to CVD mortality, the palmitic and myristic acids, were adversely associated with most CVD risk factors, whereas unsaturated linoleic acid (18:2n-6) and the marine n-3 FAs were not associated or were beneficially associated with CVD risk factors. Conclusions The results suggest that CVD risk factors are more extensively affected by individual FAs than hitherto recognized, and that risk for CVD, MI and stroke can be reduced by reducing the intake of palmitate, myristic acid and simple carbohydrates and improved by greater intake of linoleic acid and marine n-3 FAs. PMID:26274054

  10. Depression and Risk of Mortality in Individuals with Diabetes: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Park, Mijung; Katon, Wayne J.; Wolf, Fredric M.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To estimate risk of comorbid depression on all-cause mortality over time among individuals with diabetes METHODS Medline, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Embase, and Science Direct database were searched through September. 30, 2012. We limited our search to longitudinal or prospective studies reporting all-cause mortality among those having depression and diabetes, compared with those having diabetes alone that used hazard ratios as the main outcome. Two reviewers independently extracted primary data and evaluated quality of studies using predetermined criteria. The pooled random effects adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using meta-analysis. The impact of moderator variables on study effect size was examined with meta-regression. RESULTS A total of 42,363 respondents from 10 studies were included in the analysis. Depression was significantly associated with risk of mortality (Pooled HRs: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.35, 1.66). Little evidence for heterogeneity was found across the studies (Cochran Q: 13.52, p-value: 0.20, I2: 26.03). No significant possibility of publication bias was detected (Egger’s regression intercept: 0.98, p-value: 0.23). CONCLUSION Depression significantly increases the risk of mortality among individuals with diabetes. Early detection and treatment of depression may improve health outcomes in this population. PMID:23415577

  11. Canopy foliation and area as predictors of mortality risk from episodic drought for individual trees of Ashe juniper

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Drought is killing an increasing number of trees globally, yet mortality risk remains difficult to predict at fine spatial scales. We sought to identify readily-measureable metrics of living individuals that could be used to estimate mortality risk of Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei) trees under episo...

  12. Risk factors for mortality from diarrhea in beef calves in Alberta.

    PubMed Central

    Schumann, F J; Townsend, H G; Naylor, J M

    1990-01-01

    A case-study involving 56 randomly selected beef herds in Alberta was conducted to assess the association of a number of suspected risk factors upon the odds of a high mortality from diarrhea among calves less than 30 days of age. Using stepwise logistic regression it was found that an increased percentage of heifers calving in the herd, poor drainage in the nursing area, providing limited shelter in the nursing area, a large calving area, and wintering cows and heifers on the same ground were conditionally associated with an increase in the odds of high mortality from neonatal diarrhea. PMID:2379116

  13. Hispanic older adult mortality in the United States: new estimates and an assessment of factors shaping the Hispanic paradox.

    PubMed

    Lariscy, Joseph T; Hummer, Robert A; Hayward, Mark D

    2015-02-01

    Hispanics make up a rapidly growing proportion of the U.S. older adult population, so a firm grasp of their mortality patterns is paramount for identifying racial/ethnic differences in life chances in the population as a whole. Documentation of Hispanic mortality is also essential for assessing whether the Hispanic paradox--the similarity in death rates between Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites despite Hispanics' socioeconomic disadvantage--characterizes all adult Hispanics or just some age, gender, nativity, or national-origin subgroups. We estimate age-/sex- and cause-specific mortality rate ratios and life expectancy for foreign-born and U.S.-born Hispanics, foreign-born and U.S.-born Mexican Americans, non-Hispanic blacks, and non-Hispanic whites ages 65 and older using the 1989-2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files. Results affirm that Hispanic mortality estimates are favorable relative to those of blacks and whites, but particularly so for foreign-born Hispanics and smoking-related causes. However, if not for Hispanics' socioeconomic disadvantage, their mortality levels would be even more favorable. PMID:25550142

  14. Application and Validation of a GIS Model for Local Tsunami Vulnerability and Mortality Risk Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbitz, C. B.; Frauenfelder, R.; Kaiser, G.; Glimsdal, S.; Sverdrup-thygeson, K.; Løvholt, F.; Gruenburg, L.; Mc Adoo, B. G.

    2015-12-01

    The 2011 Tōhoku tsunami caused a high number of fatalities and massive destruction. Data collected after the event allow for retrospective analyses. Since 2009, NGI has developed a generic GIS model for local analyses of tsunami vulnerability and mortality risk. The mortality risk convolves the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The hazard is represented by the maximum tsunami flow depth (with a corresponding likelihood), the exposure is described by the population density in time and space, while the vulnerability is expressed by the probability of being killed as a function of flow depth and building class. The analysis is further based on high-resolution DEMs. Normally a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period is applied for vulnerability and mortality risk analysis. Hence, the model was first employed for a tsunami forecast scenario affecting Bridgetown, Barbados, and further developed in a forecast study for the city of Batangas in the Philippines. Subsequently, the model was tested by hindcasting the 2009 South Pacific tsunami in American Samoa. This hindcast was based on post-tsunami information. The GIS model was adapted for optimal use of the available data and successfully estimated the degree of mortality.For further validation and development, the model was recently applied in the RAPSODI project for hindcasting the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami in Sendai and Ishinomaki. With reasonable choices of building vulnerability, the estimated expected number of fatalities agree well with the reported death toll. The results of the mortality hindcast for the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami substantiate that the GIS model can help to identify high tsunami mortality risk areas, as well as identify the main risk drivers.The research leading to these results has received funding from CONCERT-Japan Joint Call on Efficient Energy Storage and Distribution/Resilience against Disasters (http://www.concertjapan.eu; project RAPSODI - Risk Assessment and design of

  15. Height Loss in Older Women: Risk of Hip Fracture and Mortality Independent of Vertebral Fractures

    PubMed Central

    Hillier, Teresa A.; Lui, Li-Yung; Kado, Deborah M.; LeBlanc, ES; Vesco, Kimberly K; Bauer, Douglas C.; Cauley, Jane A.; Ensrud, Kristine E.; Black, Dennis M.; Hochberg, Marc C.; Cummings, Steven R.

    2013-01-01

    We examined if height loss in older women predicts risk of hip fractures, other non-spine fractures, and mortality, and whether this risk is independent of both vertebral fractures (VFx) and bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Among 3,124 women age 65 and older in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures, we assessed the association with measured height change between Year 0 (1986–1988) and Year 15 (2002–2004) and subsequent risk of radiologically confirmed hip fractures, other non-spine fractures, and mortality assessed via death certificates. Follow-up occurred every 4 months for fractures and vital status (>95% contacts complete). Cox proportional hazards models assessed risk of hip fracture, non-spine fracture, and mortality over a mean of 5 years after height change was assessed (i.e, after final height measurement). After adjustment for VFx, BMD and other potential covariates, height loss >5 cm was associated with a marked increased risk of hip fracture (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.06, 2.12), non-spine fracture (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.20, 1.83), and mortality (1.45; 95% CI 1.21, 1.73). Although primary analyses were a subset of 3,124 survivors healthy enough to return for a Year 15 height measurement, a sensitivity analysis in the entire cohort (n=9,677) using initial height in earlier adulthood (self-reported height at age 25 [−40 years] to measured height age >65 years [Year 0]) demonstrated consistent results. Height loss >5 cm (2”) in older women was associated with a nearly 50% increased risk of hip fracture, non-spine fracture, and mortality—independent of incident VFx and BMD. PMID:22072593

  16. Risk of Mortality According to Body Mass Index and Body Composition Among Postmenopausal Women.

    PubMed

    Bea, Jennifer W; Thomson, Cynthia A; Wertheim, Betsy C; Nicholas, J Skye; Ernst, Kacey C; Hu, Chengcheng; Jackson, Rebecca D; Cauley, Jane A; Lewis, Cora E; Caan, Bette; Roe, Denise J; Chen, Zhao

    2015-10-01

    Obesity, often defined as a body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) of 30 or higher, has been associated with mortality, but age-related body composition changes can be masked by stable BMI. A subset of Women's Health Initiative participants (postmenopausal women aged 50-79 years) enrolled between 1993 and 1998 who had received dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scans for estimation of total body fat (TBF) and lean body mass (LBM) (n = 10,525) were followed for 13.6 (standard deviation, 4.6) years to test associations between BMI, body composition, and incident mortality. Overall, BMI ≥35 was associated with increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.82), while TBF and LBM were not. However, an interaction between age and body composition (P < 0.001) necessitated age stratification. Among women aged 50-59 years, higher %TBF increased risk of death (HR = 2.44, 95% CI: 1.38, 4.34) and higher %LBM decreased risk of death (HR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.74), despite broad-ranging BMIs (16.4-69.1). However, the relationships were reversed among women aged 70-79 years (P < 0.05). BMI did not adequately capture mortality risk in this sample of postmenopausal women. Our data suggest the clinical utility of evaluating body composition by age group to more robustly assess mortality risk among postmenopausal women. PMID:26350478

  17. The Folate-Vitamin B12 Interaction, Low Hemoglobin, and the Mortality Risk from Alzheimer's Disease.

    PubMed

    Min, Jin-Young; Min, Kyoung-Bok

    2016-03-21

    Abnormal hemoglobin levels are a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Although the mechanism underlying these associations is elusive, inadequate micronutrients, particularly folate and vitamin B12, may increase the risk for anemia, cognitive impairment, and AD. In this study, we investigated whether the nutritional status of folate and vitamin B12 is involved in the association between low hemoglobin levels and the risk of AD mortality. Data were obtained from the 1999-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the NHANES (1999-2006) Linked Mortality File. A total of 4,688 participants aged ≥60 years with available baseline data were included in this study. We categorized three groups based on the quartiles of folate and vitamin B12 as follows: Group I (low folate and vitamin B12); Group II (high folate and low vitamin B12 or low folate and high vitamin B12); and Group III (high folate and vitamin B12). Of 4,688 participants, 49 subjects died due to AD. After adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, education, smoking history, body mass index, the presence of diabetes or hypertension, and dietary intake of iron, significant increases in the AD mortality were observed in Quartile1 for hemoglobin (HR: 8.4, 95% CI: 1.4-50.8), and the overall risk of AD mortality was significantly reduced with increases in the quartile of hemoglobin (p for trend = 0.0200), in subjects with low levels of both folate and vitamin B12 at baseline. This association did not exist in subjects with at least one high level of folate and vitamin B12. Our finding shows the relationship between folate and vitamin B12 levels with respect to the association between hemoglobin levels and AD mortality. PMID:27003215

  18. Risk factors for outbreaks of infectious pancreatic necrosis (IPN) and associated mortality in Norwegian salmonid farming.

    PubMed

    Bang Jensen, Britt; Kristoffersen, Anja B

    2015-06-01

    Infectious pancreatic necrosis (IPN) has for many years been considered one of the most important restraints to the production of salmonids in European aquaculture. In Norway, the disease is responsible for high losses in post-smolts in the first few weeks after sea transfer. Despite the importance of IPN, there are few epidemiological studies on risk factors and mitigation strategies. In this paper, we present analyses of data from all cohorts put to sea in 2009 to 2012 on Norwegian marine salmonid farms. The data used were obtained from national registers on salmonid production and disease outbreaks. The results showed that the risk of IPN outbreak was higher for spring versus autumn cohorts, Atlantic salmon versus rainbow trout and for cohorts on farms with previous history of IPN. The risk increased with increasing cohort size and infection pressure, whereas increasing temperature and weight at sea transfer decreased the risk. Estimations from a model of cumulative mortality within the first 6 mo after sea transfer showed that mortality in cohorts with IPN increased to approximately 7.2% as compared to a 'baseline' cohort with a mortality of 3.4%. If the cohort had both IPN and pancreas disease (PD), the estimated mortality increased to 12.9%, and cohorts with both IPN, PD and heart and skeletal muscle inflammation (HSMI) had an estimated mortality of 16.6%, when all other significant factors were kept constant (these were cohort type, year, temperature at sea transfer and weight at sea transfer). Our results provide valuable inputs for mitigation strategies and for economic modelling of consequences of disease. PMID:26036825

  19. Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Leonardo Sinnott; Caramori, Paulo Ricardo Avancini; Nunes Filho, Antonio Carlos Bacelar; Katz, Marcelo; Guaragna, João Carlos Vieira da Costa; Lemos, Pedro; Lima, Valter; Abizaid, Alexandre; Tarasoutchi, Flavio; de Brito Jr, Fabio S.

    2015-01-01

    Background Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains a challenge. Objectives To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI), EuroSCORE II (ESII), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, Ambler score (AS) and Guaragna score (GS). The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test) and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC)]. Results The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic) was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42) for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16) for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68) for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64) for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05). Conclusions In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required. PMID:26247244

  20. Polyphenol intake and mortality risk: a re-analysis of the PREDIMED trial

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Polyphenols may lower the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and other chronic diseases due to their antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, as well as their beneficial effects on blood pressure, lipids and insulin resistance. However, no previous epidemiological studies have evaluated the relationship between the intake of total polyphenols intake and polyphenol subclasses with overall mortality. Our aim was to evaluate whether polyphenol intake is associated with all-cause mortality in subjects at high cardiovascular risk. Methods We used data from the PREDIMED study, a 7,447-participant, parallel-group, randomized, multicenter, controlled five-year feeding trial aimed at assessing the effects of the Mediterranean Diet in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Polyphenol intake was calculated by matching food consumption data from repeated food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) with the Phenol-Explorer database on the polyphenol content of each reported food. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) between polyphenol intake and mortality were estimated using time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models. Results Over an average of 4.8 years of follow-up, we observed 327 deaths. After multivariate adjustment, we found a 37% relative reduction in all-cause mortality comparing the highest versus the lowest quintiles of total polyphenol intake (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.63; 95% CI 0.41 to 0.97; P for trend = 0.12). Among the polyphenol subclasses, stilbenes and lignans were significantly associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR =0.48; 95% CI 0.25 to 0.91; P for trend = 0.04 and HR = 0.60; 95% CI 0.37 to 0.97; P for trend = 0.03, respectively), with no significant associations apparent in the rest (flavonoids or phenolic acids). Conclusions Among high-risk subjects, those who reported a high polyphenol intake, especially of stilbenes and lignans, showed a reduced risk of overall mortality compared to those

  1. Comparative Mortality and Risk Factors for Death among US Supreme Court Justices (1789-2013).

    PubMed

    Reynolds, Robert J; Kush, Scott J; Day, Steven M; Vachon, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Objectives .- To compare the mortality experience of 112 justices of the US Supreme Court with that expected in the general population. To identify variables associated with mortality within this cohort. Background .- Supreme Court justices are a select occupational cohort. High socio-economic status, advanced education, lifetime appointment, and the healthy worker effect suggest lower mortality. Sedentary work, stress, and a tendency to work beyond typical retirement age may attenuate this. Methods .- Standardized mortality ratios compare the observed mortality rates of justices with those expected in age- and sex-matched contemporary general populations. Poisson regression analyzes variables associated with mortality within the cohort. Results .- From 1789 to 2013, 112 justices (108 male) contributed 2,355 person-years of exposure. Mean age (standard deviation) at appointment was 53.1 years (6.7); at retirement 69.7 years (9.9); at death (n = 100) 74.4 years (10.3); and at end of the study for those alive (n = 12) 72.1 years (11.8). Standardized mortality ratios (95% ci) were: overall 0.87 (0.70-1.05); prior to 1950 0.92 (0.61-1.33); and from 1950 to 2013 0.66 (0.42-0.99). Variables in the final Poisson model and their associated mortality rate ratios (95% ci) were: age 1.06 (1.03-1.09); calendar year 0.99 (0.99-1.00); active status 0.41 (0.25-0.68); career length 1.04 (1.01-1.07); and chief justice 1.08 (0.59-1.84). Conclusions .- Supreme Court mortality was lower than that of the general population in the period from 1950 to the present, but was on par prior to 1950. Increasing age and career length were associated with greater mortality, while active status and later calendar year with lower. These results may add to a body of knowledge that may help to develop or refine models of mortality risk in increasingly aged working populations. PMID:27584804

  2. Psychosocial Predictors of Emerging Adults' Risk and Reckless Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bradley, Graham; Wildman, Karen

    2002-01-01

    Studied risk and reckless behavior in 375 emerging adults using self-report measures and a cross-sectional design. Risk behaviors were found to be reliably predicted by sensation seeking, but not by antisocial peer pressure, while the reverse pattern was more true in relation to "reckless" behaviors. (SLD)

  3. EVALUATING RISK IN OLDER ADULTS USING PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The rapid growth in the number of older Americans has many implications for public health, including the need to better understand the risks posed by environmental exposures to older adults. An important element for evaluating risk is the understanding of the doses of environment...

  4. Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Emerging Adults in College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abshire, Demetrius Alexander

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this dissertation was to examine factors associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among emerging adults in college aged 18-25 years. CVD risks that develop during this period often persist into adulthood making it an ideal time to target CVD prevention. The specific aims of this dissertation were to 1) explore perceptions…

  5. Weight, dietary behavior, and physical activity in childhood and adolescence: implications for adult cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Fuemmeler, Bernard F; Pendzich, Margaret K; Tercyak, Kenneth P

    2009-01-01

    Lifestyle factors related to energy balance, including weight, dietary behavior and physical activity, are associated with cancer risk. The period of childhood and growth into adolescence and early adulthood may re-present a 'cumulative risk' for later adult-onset cancers. We review a number of epidemiologic studies that have examined associations among childhood and adolescent body size, diet, and physical activity with adult cancer risk. These studies suggest that unhealthy behaviors that develop early in life and persist over time may increase the risk of some cancer types, such as premenopausal breast, ovarian, endometrial, colon and renal cancer, adversely affect cancer-related morbidities, and increase mortality. Continued research is needed to further determine and refine how timing and degree of such exposures in early childhood and adolescence relate to adult cancer risk. Presently, sufficient evidence suggests a continued need for stronger primary prevention in cancer and obesity research via modified lifestyle behaviors earlier in the developmental spectrum, i.e. during childhood and adolescence. PMID:20054223

  6. Adolescent and adult risk-taking in virtual social contexts

    PubMed Central

    Haddad, Anneke D. M.; Norman, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    There is a paucity of experimental data addressing how peers influence adolescent risk-taking. Here, we examined peer effects on risky decision-making in adults and adolescents using a virtual social context that enabled experimental control over the peer “interactions.” 40 adolescents (age 11–18) and 28 adults (age 20–38) completed a risk-taking (Wheel of Fortune) task under four conditions: in private; while being observed by (fictitious) peers; and after receiving ‘risky’ or ‘safe’ advice from the peers. For high-risk gambles (but not medium-risk or even gambles), adolescents made more risky decisions under peer observation than adults. Adolescents, but not adults, tended to resist ‘safe’ advice for high-risk gambles. Although both groups tended to follow ‘risky’ advice for high-risk gambles, adults did so more than adolescents. These findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between the effects of peer observation and peer advice on risky decision-making. PMID:25566150

  7. Providing perspective for interpreting cardiovascular mortality risks associated with ozone exposures.

    PubMed

    Petito Boyce, Catherine; Goodman, Julie E; Sax, Sonja N; Loftus, Christine T

    2015-06-01

    When identifying standards for air pollutants based on uncertain evidence, both science and policy judgments play critical roles. Consequently, critical contextual factors are important for understanding the strengths, limitations, and appropriate interpretation of available science, and potential benefits of risk mitigation alternatives. These factors include the relative magnitude and certainty of the risks posed by various factors and the impacts of other risk factors on air pollutant epidemiology study findings. This commentary explores ozone's status as a risk factor for cardiovascular mortality in contrast with decades of strong and consistent evidence for other established risk factors. By comparison, the ozone evidence is less conclusive, more heterogeneous, and subject to substantial uncertainty; ozone's potential effects, if any, are small and challenging to discern. Moreover, the absence of a demonstrated causal relationship calls into question efforts to quantify cardiovascular mortality risks attributed to ozone exposures on a population level and highlights the need to explicitly acknowledge this uncertainty if such calculations are performed. These concerns are relevant for other similar policy contexts - where multiple established risk factors contribute to the health impact of interest; exposure-effect associations are relatively small, weak, and uncertain; and a causal relationship has not been clearly established. PMID:25817736

  8. Association of selected risk factors with variation in child and adolescent firearm mortality by state.

    PubMed

    Murnan, Judy; Dake, Joseph A; Price, James H

    2004-10-01

    This study examined relationships between variation in child and adolescent firearm mortality by state and the following variables: childhood poverty rate, percent single parent families, percent population that is African American, percent population that is Hispanic, percent students carrying a gun, percent students carrying a weapon, percent students feeling unsafe, percent students feeling sad/hopeless, percent students academically at-risk, percent students involved infighting, percent students engaging in binge drinking behavior, violent crime rate for youths, individual gun laws in each state, prevalence of firearm ownership, and percent residing in urban area. Stepwise regression was calculated and one independent variable, prevalence of firearm ownership in the state, emerged as a significant predictor of child and adolescent firearm mortality. This variable predicted 47% of the variance from state to state in the child and adolescent firearm mortality. Schools need to address firearm safety and advocate for elimination of firearms accessible to youth. PMID:15554120

  9. Adoption Does Not Increase the Risk of Mortality among Taiwanese Girls in a Longitudinal Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Mattison, Siobhán M.; Brown, Melissa J.; Floyd, Bruce; Feldman, Marcus W.

    2015-01-01

    Adopted children often experience health and well-being disadvantages compared to biological children remaining in their natal households. The degree of genetic relatedness is thought to mediate the level of parental investment in children, leading to poorer outcomes of biologically unrelated children. We explore whether mortality is related to adoption in a historical Taiwanese population where adoption rarely occurred among kin. Using Cox proportional hazards models in which adoption is included as a time-dependent covariate, we show that adoption of girls does not increase the risk of mortality, as previously suggested; in fact, it is either protective or neutral with respect to mortality. These results suggest that socio-structural variables may produce positive outcomes for adopted children, even compared to biological children who remain in the care of their parents. PMID:25923106

  10. Sugars and risk of mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study1234

    PubMed Central

    Tasevska, Natasha; Park, Yikyung; Jiao, Li; Hollenbeck, Albert; Subar, Amy F; Potischman, Nancy

    2014-01-01

    Background: Although previous studies have linked intake of sugars with incidence of cancer and other chronic diseases, its association with mortality remains unknown. Objective: We investigated the association of total sugars, added sugars, total fructose, added fructose, sucrose, and added sucrose with the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other-cause mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. Design: The participants (n = 353,751), aged 50–71 y, were followed for up to 13 y. Intake of individual sugars over the previous 12 mo was assessed at baseline by using a 124-item NIH Diet History Questionnaire. Results: In fully adjusted models (fifth quartile compared with first quartile), all-cause mortality was positively associated with the intake of total sugars [HR (95% CI): 1.13 (1.06, 1.20); P-trend < 0.0001], total fructose [1.10 (1.04, 1.17); P-trend < 0.0001], and added fructose [1.07 (1.01, 1.13); P-trend = 0.005) in women and total fructose [1.06 (1.01, 1.10); P-trend = 0.002] in men. In men, a weak inverse association was found between other-cause mortality and dietary added sugars (P-trend = 0.04), sucrose (P-trend = 0.03), and added sucrose (P-trend = 0.006). Investigation of consumption of sugars by source showed that the positive association with mortality risk was confined only to sugars from beverages, whereas the inverse association was confined to sugars from solid foods. Conclusions: In this large prospective study, total fructose intake was weakly positively associated with all-cause mortality in both women and men, whereas added sugar, sucrose, and added sucrose intakes were inversely associated with other-cause mortality in men. In our analyses, intake of added sugars was not associated with an increased risk of mortality. The NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00340015. PMID:24552754

  11. Risk Factors among Adult Children of Alcoholics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Cathy W.; Webster, Raymond E.

    2007-01-01

    Family patterns of dysfunction that often reinforce maladaptive behaviors and cognitions of children growing up in an alcoholic home environment are often difficult to overcome. Adjustment issues associated with being an adult child of an alcoholic (ACOA) are presented along with factors that have been identified as being important in developing…

  12. What doesn't kill you makes you poorer: Adult wages and early-life mortality in India.

    PubMed

    Lawson, Nicholas; Spears, Dean

    2016-05-01

    A growing literature indicates that effects of early-life health on adult economic outcomes could be substantial in developing countries, but the magnitude of this effect is debated. We document a robust gradient between the early-life mortality environment to which men in India were locally exposed in their district and year of birth and the wages that they earn as adults. A 1 percentage point reduction in infant mortality (or 10 point reduction in IMR) in an infant's district and year of birth is associated with an approximately 2 percent increase in his subsequent adult wages. Consistent with theories and evidence in the literature, we find that the level of schooling chosen for a child does not mediate this association. Because of its consequences for subsequent wages, early-life health could also have considerable fiscal externalities; if so, public health investments could come at very low net present cost. PMID:26706689

  13. Independent and additive association of prenatal famine exposure and intermediary life conditions with adult mortality age 18–63 years

    PubMed Central

    Ekamper, P.; van Poppel, F.; Stein, A.D.; Lumey, L.H.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To quantify the relation between prenatal famine exposure and adult mortality, taking into account mediating effects of intermediary life conditions. Design Historical follow-up study. Setting The Dutch famine (Hunger Winter) of 1944–1945 which occurred towards the end of WWII in occupied Netherlands. Study population From 408,015 Dutch male births born 1944–1947, examined for military service at age 18, we selected for follow-up all men born at the time of the famine in six affected cities in the Western Netherlands (n=25,283), and a sample of unexposed time (n=10,667) and place (n=9,087) controls. These men were traced and followed for mortality through the national population and death record systems. Outcome measure All-cause mortality between ages 18 and 63 years using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for intermediary life conditions. Results An increase in mortality was seen after famine exposure in early gestation (HR 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01 to 1.24) but not late gestation (HR 1.04; 95% CI: 0.96 to 1.13). Among intermediary life conditions at age 18 years, educational level was inversely associated with mortality and mortality was elevated in men with fathers with a manual versus non-manual occupations (HR 1.08; CI: 1.02 to 1.16) and in men who were declared unfit for military service (HR 1.44; CI: 1.31 to 1.58). Associations of intermediate factors with mortality were independent of famine exposure in early life and associations between prenatal famine exposure and adult mortality were independent of social class and education at age 18. Conclusions Timing of exposure in relation to the stage of pregnancy may be of critical importance for later health outcomes independent of intermediary life conditions. PMID:24262812

  14. Portable stove use is associated with lower lung cancer mortality risk in lifetime smoky coal users

    PubMed Central

    Hosgood, H D; Chapman, R; Shen, M; Blair, A; Chen, E; Zheng, T; Lee, K-M; He, X; Lan, Q

    2008-01-01

    Domestic fuel combustion from cooking and heating, to which about 3 billion people worldwide are exposed, is associated with increased lung cancer risk. Lung cancer incidence in Xuanwei is the highest in China, and the attributable risk of lung cancer from unvented smoky coal burning is greater than 90%. To evaluate any lung cancer mortality reduction after changing from unvented stoves to portable stoves, we used lifetime smoky coal users in a retrospective cohort of all farmers born during 1917–1951 and residing in Xuanwei in 1976. Of the 42 422 enrolled farmers, 4054 lifetime smoky coal users changed to portable stoves, 4364 did not change, and 1074 died of lung cancer. Lung cancer morality associated with stove change was assessed by product-limit survival curves and multivariate Cox regression models. Both men (P<0.0001) and women (P<0.0001) who changed to portable stoves had a significantly increased probability of survival compared with those who did not change. Portable stoves were associated with decreased risk of lung cancer mortality in male participants (hazard ratio (HR)=0.62, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.46–0.82) and female participants (HR=0.41, 95% CI=0.29–0.57). Portable stove use is associated with reduced lung cancer mortality risk, highlighting a cost-effective intervention that could substantially benefit health in developing countries. PMID:19034286

  15. [Psychosis, cardiovascular risk and associated mortality: are we on the right track?].

    PubMed

    Castillo Sánchez, Miguel; Fàbregas Escurriola, Mireia; Bergè Baquero, Daniel; Goday Arno, Albert; Vallès Callol, Joan Antoni

    2014-01-01

    Patients with psychotic disorders have a higher risk of early mortality. In addition to unnatural causes (accidents, suicide), death due to cardiovascular (CV) reasons is two to four times more prevalent in these patients than in the general population. This non-systematic review of MEDLINE aims to clarify the role of all the determining factors are involved. Psychotic disorders are related to unhealthy life habits such as smoking, poor diet and physical inactivity. Neuroleptic drugs have also been studied as triggers of obesity and metabolic syndrome. Therefore, psychotic patients seem predisposed to suffer from several of the «classic» CV risk factors. It is not surprising that their scores on the CV risk scales (Framingham, SCORE) are higher than the general population. We also found publications that showed poorer management of primary and secondary prevention of CV disease. In addition, some biochemical factors (plasma levels of cortisol, ACTH, homocysteine, PCR) may indicate a vulnerability in psychosis per se, as well as the findings on hyperglycemia and insulin resistance in psychotic "drug naive" patients. These "non-classical" factors could alter the validity of CV risk scales designed for the general population. Furthermore, antipsychotic drugs could control intrinsic factors of psychosis (they have shown to reduce global mortality), and their role in CV mortality is not clear. PMID:23890424

  16. Mortality, Rehospitalisation and Violent Crime in Forensic Psychiatric Patients Discharged from Hospital: Rates and Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Fazel, Seena; Wolf, Achim; Fimińska, Zuzanna; Larsson, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To determine rates and risk factors for adverse outcomes in patients discharged from forensic psychiatric services. Method We conducted a historical cohort study of all 6,520 psychiatric patients discharged from forensic psychiatric hospitals between 1973 and 2009 in Sweden. We calculated hazard ratios for mortality, rehospitalisation, and violent crime using Cox regression to investigate the effect of different psychiatric diagnoses and two comorbidities (personality or substance use disorder) on outcomes. Results Over mean follow-up of 15.6 years, 30% of patients died (n = 1,949) after discharge with an average age at death of 52 years. Over two-thirds were rehospitalised (n = 4,472, 69%), and 40% violently offended after discharge (n = 2,613) with a mean time to violent crime of 4.2 years. The association between psychiatric diagnosis and outcome varied—substance use disorder as a primary diagnosis was associated with highest risk of mortality and rehospitalisation, and personality disorder was linked with the highest risk of violent offending. Furthermore comorbid substance use disorder typically increased risk of adverse outcomes. Conclusion Violent offending, premature mortality and rehospitalisation are prevalent in patients discharged from forensic psychiatric hospitals. Individualised treatment plans for such patients should take into account primary and comorbid psychiatric diagnoses. PMID:27196309

  17. Elevated Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 is a Risk Factor for Kidney Transplant Loss and Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Molnar, Miklos Z.; Amaral, Ansel P.; Czira, Maria E.; Rudas, Anna; Ujszaszi, Akos; Kiss, Istvan; Rosivall, Laszlo; Kosa, Janos; Lakatos, Peter; Kovesdy, Csaba P.; Mucsi, Istvan

    2011-01-01

    An increased circulating level of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is an independent risk factor for mortality, cardiovascular disease, and progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD), but its role in transplant allograft and patient survival is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that increased FGF23 is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality and allograft loss in a prospective cohort of 984 stable kidney transplant recipients. At enrollment, estimated GFR (eGFR) was 51 ± 21 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and median C-terminal FGF23 was 28 RU/ml (interquartile range, 20 to 43 RU/ml). Higher FGF23 levels independently associated with increased risk of the composite outcome of all-cause mortality and allograft loss (full model hazard ratio: 1.46 per SD increase in logFGF23, 95% confidence interval: 1.28 to 1.68, P < 0.001). The results were similar for each component of the composite outcome and in all sensitivity analyses, including prespecified analyses of patients with baseline eGFR of 30 to 90 ml/min per 1.73 m2. In contrast, other measures of phosphorus metabolism, including serum phosphate and parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels, did not consistently associate with outcomes. We conclude that a high (or elevated) FGF23 is an independent risk factor for death and allograft loss in kidney transplant recipients. PMID:21436289

  18. Mortality rates and risk factors for asymptomatic deep vein thrombosis in medical patients.

    PubMed

    Vaitkus, Paul T; Leizorovicz, Alain; Cohen, Alexander T; Turpie, Alexander G G; Olsson, Carl-Gustav; Goldhaber, Samuel Z

    2005-01-01

    The clinical importance of asymptomatic proximal and distal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) remains uncertain and controversial. The aim of this retrospective, post-hoc analysis was to examine mortality and risk factors for development of proximal DVT in hospitalized patients with acute medical illness who were recruited into a randomized, prospective clinical trial of thromboprophylaxis with dalteparin (PREVENT). We analyzed 1738 patients who had not sustained a symptomatic venous thromboembolic event by Day 21 and who had a complete compression ultrasound of the proximal and distal leg veins on Day 21. We examined the 90-day mortality rates in patients with asymptomatic proximal DVT (Group I, N=80), asymptomatic distal DVT (Group II, N=118) or no DVT (Group III, N=1540). The 90-day mortality rates were 13.75%, 3.39%, and 1.92% for Groups I-III, respectively. The difference in mortality between Group I and Group III was significant (hazard ratio 7.63, 95% CI=3.8-15.3; p <0.0001), whereas the difference between Groups II and III did not reach significance (hazard ratio 1.36, 95% CI=0.41-4.45). The association of asymptomatic proximal DVT with increased mortality remained highly significant after adjusting for differences in baseline demographics and clinical variables. Risk factors significantly associated with the development of proximal DVT included advanced age (p=0.0005), prior DVT (p=0.001), and varicose veins (p=0.04). In conclusion, the high mortality rate in patients with asymptomatic proximal DVT underscores its clinical relevance and supports targeting of asymptomatic proximal DVT as an appropriate endpoint in clinical trials of thromboprophylaxis. PMID:15630494

  19. Risk factors associated with on-farm mortality in Swedish dairy cows.

    PubMed

    Alvåsen, K; Jansson Mörk, M; Dohoo, I R; Sandgren, C Hallén; Thomsen, P T; Emanuelson, U

    2014-11-01

    Dairy cow mortality (unassisted death and euthanasia) has increased, worldwide and in Sweden. On-farm mortality indicates suboptimal herd health or welfare and causes financial loss for the dairy producer. The objective of this study was to identify cow-level risk factors associated with on-farm cow mortality. Cows with at least one calving between 1 July 2008 and 30 June 2009 from herds enrolled in the Swedish official milk recording scheme with >40 cow-years were included. Each cow was followed from the day of calving until she calved again or left the herd (died, slaughtered or sold). The effects of potential risk factors on on-farm cow mortality were analysed using a Weibull proportional hazard model with a gamma distributed frailty effect common to cows within herd. The event of interest (failure) was euthanasia or unassisted death. An observation was right censored if the cow was slaughtered, sold, calved again or had an on-going lactation at 500 days after calving. The lactations were split into seasons (January to April, May to August and September to December) and at 30 and 100 days in milk in order to evaluate seasonal effects and the effect of disease in different lactation stages. Primiparous and multiparous cows were analysed separately. The highest hazards for both primiparous and multiparous cows were found for traumatic events and diseases, both in the lactation stage in which the cow died and in the preceding stage. The hazard was higher in early lactation and lower in 2nd parity compared to higher parities. Increased age at first calving (for primiparous cows), calving between January and April, dystocia and stillbirth also increased the mortality hazard. Differences were also found between breeds, between milk production parameters at first test milking and between management types. The results from this study show the importance of good management and preventive health actions, especially around calving, to avoid mortality in dairy cows. PMID

  20. Nut consumption and risk of mortality in the Physicians’ Health Study1234

    PubMed Central

    Hshieh, Tammy T; Petrone, Andrew B; Gaziano, J Michael

    2015-01-01

    Background: Previous studies have suggested that nut consumption is associated with beneficial cardiovascular outcomes. However, limited data are available on the association between nut intake and all-cause mortality. Objective: Our aim was to test the hypothesis that nut consumption is inversely associated with the risk of all-cause mortality. Design: In this prospective cohort study in 20,742 male physicians, we assessed nut intake between 1999 and 2002 via a food-frequency questionnaire and ascertained deaths through an endpoint committee. We used Cox regression to estimate multivariable-adjusted HRs for death according to nut consumption. In secondary analyses, we evaluated associations of nut consumption with cause-specific mortality. Results: During a mean follow-up of 9.6 y, there were 2732 deaths. The mean (±SD) age at baseline was 66.6 ± 9.3 y. Median nut consumption was 1 serving/wk. Multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) were 1.0 (reference), 0.92 (0.83, 1.01), 0.85 (0.76, 0.96), 0.86 (0.75, 0.98), and 0.74 (0.63, 0.87) for nut consumption of never or <1 serving/mo, 1–3 servings/mo, 1 serving/wk, 2–4 servings/wk, and ≥5 servings/wk, respectively (P-linear trend < 0.0001), after adjustment for age, body mass index, alcohol use, smoking, exercise, prevalent diabetes and hypertension, and intakes of energy, saturated fat, fruit and vegetables, and red meat. In a secondary analysis, results were consistent for cardiovascular disease mortality but only suggestive and non–statistically significant for coronary artery disease and cancer mortality. Conclusion: Our data are consistent with an inverse association between nut consumption and the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in US male physicians. PMID:25646339

  1. Chronic low-dose exposure in the Techa River Cohort: risk of mortality from circulatory diseases.

    PubMed

    Krestinina, Lyudmila Yurievna; Epifanova, Svetlana; Silkin, Stanislav; Mikryukova, Lyudmila; Degteva, Marina; Shagina, Natalia; Akleyev, Alexander

    2013-03-01

    The aim of the present study was to analyze the mortality from circulatory diseases for about 30,000 members of the Techa River cohort over the period 1950-2003, and to investigate how these rates depend on radiation doses. This population received both external and internal exposures from (90)Sr, (89)Sr, (137)Cs, and other uranium fission products as a result of waterborne releases from the Mayak nuclear facility in the Southern Urals region of the Russian Federation. The analysis included individualized estimates of the total (external plus internal) absorbed dose in muscle calculated based on the Techa River Dosimetry System 2009. The cohort-average dose to muscle tissue was 35 mGy, and the maximum dose was 510 mGy. Between 1950 and 2003, 7,595 deaths from circulatory diseases were registered among cohort members with 901,563 person years at risk. Mortality rates in the cohort were analyzed using a simple parametric excess relative risk (ERR) model. For all circulatory diseases, the estimated excess relative risk per 100 mGy with a 15-year lag period was 3.6 % with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.2-7.5 %, and for ischemic heart disease it was 5.6 % with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.1-11.9 %. A linear ERR model provided the best fit. Analyses with a lag period shorter than 15 years from the beginning of exposure did not reveal any significant risk of mortality from either all circulatory diseases or ischemic heart disease. There was no evidence of an increased mortality risk from cerebrovascular disease (p > 0.5). These results should be regarded as preliminary, since they will be updated after adjustment for smoking and alcohol consumption. PMID:23124827

  2. Differences between Risk Factors Associated with Tuberculosis Treatment Abandonment and Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Gomes, Nathália Mota de Faria; Bastos, Meire Cardoso da Mota; Marins, Renata Magliano; Barbosa, Aline Alves; Soares, Luiz Clóvis Parente; de Abreu, Annelise Maria de Oliveira Wilken; Souto Filho, João Tadeu Damian

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. To identify the risk factors that were associated with abandonment of treatment and mortality in tuberculosis (TB) patients. Methods. This study was a retrospective longitudinal cohort study involving tuberculosis patients treated between 2002 and 2008 in a TB reference center. Results. A total of 1,257 patients were evaluated, with 69.1% men, 54.4% under 40 years of age, 18.9% with extrapulmonary disease, and 9.3% coinfected with HIV. The risk factors that were associated with abandonment of treatment included male gender (OR = 2.05; 95% CI = 1.15–3.65) and nonadherence to previous treatment (OR = 3.14; 95% CI = 1.96–5.96). In addition, the presence of extrapulmonary TB was a protective factor (OR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.14–0.76). The following risk factors were associated with mortality: age over 40 years (OR = 2.61, 95% CI = 1.76–3.85), coinfection with HIV (OR = 6.01, 95% CI = 3.78–9.56), illiteracy (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.27–2.75), the presence of severe extrapulmonary TB (OR = 2.33, 95% CI = 1.24–4.38), and retreatment after relapse (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.01–3.75). Conclusions. Male gender and retreatment after abandonment were independent risk factors for nonadherence to TB treatment. Furthermore, age over 40 years, coinfection with HIV, illiteracy, severe extrapulmonary TB, and retreatment after relapse were associated with higher TB mortality. Therefore, we suggest the implementation of direct measures that will control the identified risk factors to reduce the rates of treatment failure and TB-associated mortality. PMID:26600948

  3. Relative risks of Chronic Kidney Disease for mortality and End Stage Renal Disease across races is similar

    PubMed Central

    Wen, Chi-Pang; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Coresh, Josef; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Islam, Muhammad; Katz, Ronit; McClellan, William; Peralta, Carmen A; Wang, HaiYan; de Zeeuw, Dick; Astor, Brad C; Gansevoort, Ron T; Levey, Andrew S; Levin, Adeera

    2014-01-01

    Some suggest race-specific cutpoints for kidney measures to define and stage chronic kidney disease (CKD), but evidence for race-specific clinical impact is limited. To address this issue, we compared hazard ratios of estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) and albuminuria across races using meta-regression in 1.1 million adults (75% Asians, 21% whites, and 4% blacks) from 45 cohorts. Results came mainly from 25 general population cohorts comprising 0.9 million individuals. The associations of lower eGFR and higher albuminuria with mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were largely similar across races. For example, in Asians, whites, and blacks, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for eGFR 45–59 vs. 90–104 ml/min/1.73m2 were 1.3 (1.2–1.3), 1.1 (1.0–1.2) and 1.3 (1.1–1.7) for all-cause mortality, 1.6 (1.5–1.8), 1.4 (1.2–1.7), and 1.4 (0.7–2.9) for cardiovascular mortality, and 27.6 (11.1–68.7), 11.2 (6.0–20.9), and 4.1 (2.2–7.5) for ESRD, respectively. The corresponding hazard ratios for urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio 30–299 mg/g or dipstick 1-positive vs. an albumin-to-creatinine ratio under 10 or dipstick negative were 1.6 (1.4–1.8), 1.7 (1.5–1.9) and 1.8 (1.7–2.1) for all-cause mortality, 1.7 (1.4–2.0), 1.8 (1.5–2.1), and 2.8 (2.2–3.6) for cardiovascular mortality, and 7.4 (2.0–27.6), 4.0 (2.8–5.9), and 5.6 (3.4–9.2) for ESRD, respectively. Thus, the relative mortality or ESRD risks of lower eGFR and higher albuminuria were largely similar among three major races, supporting similar clinical approach to CKD definition and staging, across races. PMID:24522492

  4. Physical activity and all-cause mortality among older Brazilian adults: 11-year follow-up of the Bambuí Health and Aging Study

    PubMed Central

    Ramalho, Juciany RO; Mambrini, Juliana VM; César, Cibele C; de Oliveira, César M; Firmo, Josélia OA; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda; Peixoto, Sérgio V

    2015-01-01

    Objective To investigate the association between physical activity (eg, energy expenditure) and survival over 11 years of follow-up in a large representative community sample of older Brazilian adults with a low level of education. Furthermore, we assessed sex as a potential effect modifier of this association. Materials and methods A population-based prospective cohort study was conducted on all the ≥60-year-old residents in Bambuí city (Brazil). A total of 1,606 subjects (92.2% of the population) enrolled, and 1,378 (85.8%) were included in this study. Type, frequency, and duration of physical activity were assessed in the baseline survey questionnaire, and the metabolic equivalent task tertiles were estimated. The follow-up time was 11 years (1997–2007), and the end point was mortality. Deaths were reported by next of kin during the annual follow-up interview and ascertained through the Brazilian System of Information on Mortality, Brazilian Ministry of Health. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were estimated by Cox proportional-hazard models, and potential confounders were considered. Results A statistically significant interaction (P<0.03) was found between sex and energy expenditure. Among older men, increases in levels of physical activity were associated with reduced mortality risk. The hazard ratios were 0.59 (95% CI 0.43–0.81) and 0.47 (95% CI 0.34–0.66) for the second and third tertiles, respectively. Among older women, there was no significant association between physical activity and mortality. Conclusion It was possible to observe the effect of physical activity in reducing mortality risk, and there was a significant interaction between sex and energy expenditure, which should be considered in the analysis of this association in different populations. PMID:25931817

  5. Elevated AST-to-platelet ratio index is associated with increased all-cause mortality among HIV-infected adults in Zambia

    PubMed Central

    Vinikoor, Michael J.; Sinkala, Edford; Mweemba, Aggrey; Zanolini, Arianna; Mulenga, Lloyd; Sikazwe, Izukanji; Fried, Michael W.; Eron, Joseph J.; Wandeler, Gilles; Chi, Benjamin H.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims We investigated the association between significant liver fibrosis, determined by AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and all-cause mortality among HIV-infected patients prescribed antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Zambia Methods Among HIV-infected adults who initiated ART, we categorized baseline APRI scores according to established thresholds for significant hepatic fibrosis (APRI ≥1.5) and cirrhosis (APRI ≥2.0). Using multivariable logistic regression we identified risk factors for elevated APRI including demographic characteristics, body mass index (BMI), HIV clinical and immunologic status, and tuberculosis. In the subset tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), we investigated the association of hepatitis B virus co-infection with APRI score. Using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression we determined the association of elevated APRI with death during ART. Results Among 20,308 adults in the analysis cohort, 1,027 (5.1%) had significant liver fibrosis at ART initiation including 616 (3.0%) with cirrhosis. Risk factors for significant fibrosis or cirrhosis included male sex, BMI <18, WHO clinical stage 3 or 4, CD4+ count <200 cells/mm3, and tuberculosis. Among the 237 (1.2%) who were tested, HBsAg-positive patients had four times the odds (adjusted odds ratio, 4.15; 95% CI, 1.71–10.04) of significant fibrosis compared HBsAg-negatives. Both significant fibrosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.41, 95% CI, 1.21–1.64) and cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.57, 95% CI, 1.31–1.89) were associated with increased all-cause mortality. Conclusion Liver fibrosis may be a risk factor for mortality during ART among HIV-infected individuals in Africa. APRI is an inexpensive and potentially useful test for liver fibrosis in resource-constrained settings. PMID:25581487

  6. Long sleep duration in elders without dementia increases risk of dementia mortality (NEDICES)

    PubMed Central

    Louis, Elan D.; Villarejo-Galende, Alberto; Romero, Juan P.; Bermejo-Pareja, Félix

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To determine in a population-based study whether long sleep duration was associated with increased risk of dementia mortality. Methods: In this prospective, population-based study of 3,857 people without dementia aged 65 years and older (NEDICES [Neurological Disorders in Central Spain]), participants reported their daily sleep duration. The average daily total sleep duration was grouped into 3 categories: ≤5 hours (short sleepers), 6–8 hours (reference category), and ≥9 hours (long sleepers). Community-dwelling elders were followed for a median of 12.5 years, after which the death certificates of those who died were examined. Results: A total of 1,822 (47.2%) of 3,857 participants died, including 201 (11.0%) deaths among short sleepers, 832 (45.7%) among long sleepers, and 789 (43.3%) among those participants in the reference category. Of 1,822 deceased participants, 92 (5.1%) had a dementia condition reported on the death certificate (49 [53.3%] were long sleepers, 36 [39.1%] reported sleeping between 6 and 8 hours, and 7 [7.6%] were short sleepers). In an unadjusted Cox model, risk of dementia-specific mortality was increased in long sleepers (hazard ratio for dementia mortality in long sleepers = 1.58, p = 0.04) when compared with the reference group. In a Cox model that adjusted for numerous demographic factors and comorbidities, the hazard ratio for dementia mortality in long sleepers was 1.63 (p = 0.03). Conclusions: Self-reported long sleep duration was associated with 58% increased risk of dementia-specific mortality in this cohort of elders without dementia. Future studies are required to confirm these findings. PMID:25253755

  7. Low HbA1c and Increased Mortality Risk-is Frailty a Confounding Factor?

    PubMed Central

    Abdelhafiz, Ahmed H; Sinclair, Alan J

    2015-01-01

    Diabetes mellitus is increasingly becoming an older person disease due to the increased survival and aging of the population. Previous studies which showed benefits of tight glycemic control and a linear relationship between HbA1c and mortality have largely included younger patients newly diagnosed with diabetes and with less comorbidities. Recent studies, which included older population with diabetes, have shown a U-shaped relationship of increased mortality associated with low HbA1c. The mechanism of such relationship is unclear. There was no direct causal link between low HbA1c and mortality. It appears that malnutrition, inflammation and functional decline are characteristics shared by the populations that showed increased mortality and low HbA1c. In these studies functional status, disability or frailty was not routinely measured. Therefore, although adjustment for comorbidities was made there may be a residual confounding by unmeasured factors such as frailty. Thus, frailty or decline in functional reserve may be the main confounding factor explaining the relationship between increased mortality risk and low HbA1c. PMID:26236548

  8. Mortality risk stratification in elderly trauma patients based on initial arterial lactate and base deficit levels.

    PubMed

    Neville, Angela L; Nemtsev, Denis; Manasrah, Raed; Bricker, Scott D; Putnam, Brant A

    2011-10-01

    Elderly trauma patients have worse outcomes than their younger counterparts. Early risk stratification remains difficult, particularly because traditional vital signs are less reliable. We hypothesized that arrival lactate and base deficit (BD) could be used to predict mortality in elderly trauma patients with a normal admission blood pressure. We retrospectively evaluated the prospectively collected trauma registry at our urban Level I trauma center between 2003 and 2009. Patients sustaining blunt trauma, age 55 years or older, with a systolic blood pressure 90 mmHg or higher, and who had arterial lactate and/or BD measured within 4 hours of arrival comprised the study group. Primary outcomes were in-hospital and 24-hour mortality. There were 364 patients with a lactate and 324 with a BD drawn. Patients with a lactate 2.5 mmol or greater were 3.7 times more likely to die than those with a lactate less than 2.5 mmol (95% CI, 1.6 to 8.2; P = 0.0018). The OR for mortality was 5.2 (95% CI, 2.5 to 11.2; P < 0.0001) in patients with a BD -4 or less. Elevated lactate and BD were even stronger predictors of early mortality (within first 24 hours). After increasing the hypotension threshold to a systolic blood pressure 110 mmHg or greater, lactate and BD remained highly predictive of in-hospital and 24-hour mortality. PMID:22127083

  9. Predicting Prostate Cancer Mortality Among Men With Intermediate to High-Risk Disease and Multiple Unfavorable Risk Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Nguyen, Paul L. Chen Minghui; Catalona, William J.; Moul, Judd W.; Sun, Leon; D'Amico, Anthony V.

    2009-03-01

    Purpose: To determine whether the number of unfavorable risk factors could be used to predict the risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) among men with intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We studied 1,063 men who underwent radical prostatectomy (n = 559), external beam radiotherapy (n = 288), or radiotherapy plus androgen suppression therapy (n = 116) for prostate cancer between 1965 and 2002. Fine and Gray's regression analysis was used to determine whether an increasing number of unfavorable risk factors (prostate-specific antigen level >10 ng/mL, Gleason score of {>=}7, clinical Stage T2b or greater, or pretreatment prostate-specific antigen velocity >2.0 ng/mL/y) was associated with the interval to PCSM and all-cause mortality. Results: Median follow-up was 5.6 years. Compared with those with one risk factor, the adjusted hazard ratio for PCSM was 2.3 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.8; p = 0.03) for two risk factors, 5.4 (95% confidence interval 2.7-10.7; p < 0.0001) for three risk factors, and 13.6 (95% confidence interval 6.3-29.2; p < 0.0001) for all four risk factors. The 5-year cumulative incidence of PCSM was 2.4% for one factor, 2.4% for two factors, 7.0% for three factors, and 14.7% for all four factors. Prostate cancer deaths as a proportion of all deaths was 19% for one factor, 33% for two factors, 53% for three factors, and 80% for four factors. Conclusion: The number of unfavorable risk factors was significantly associated with PCSM. Prostate cancer was the major cause of death in men with at least three risk factors. Therefore, these men should be considered for clinical trials designed to assess whether survival is prolonged with the addition of novel agents to current standards of practice.

  10. Risks associated with preweaning mortality in 855 litters on 39 commercial outdoor pig farms in England.

    PubMed

    KilBride, A L; Mendl, M; Statham, P; Held, S; Harris, M; Marchant-Forde, J N; Booth, H; Green, L E

    2014-11-01

    A prospective longitudinal study was carried out on 39 outdoor breeding pig farms in England in 2003 and 2004 to investigate the risks associated with mortality in liveborn preweaning piglets. Researchers visited each farm and completed a questionnaire with the farmer and made observations of the paddocks, huts and pigs. The farmer recorded the number of piglets born alive and stillborn, fostered on and off and the number of piglets that died before weaning for 20 litters born after the visit. Data were analysed from a cohort of 9424 liveborn piglets from 855 litters. Overall 1274 liveborn piglets (13.5%) died before weaning. A mixed effect binomial model was used to investigate the associations between preweaning mortality and farm and litter level factors, controlling for litter size and number of piglets stillborn and fostered. Increased risk of mortality was associated with fostering piglets over 24h of age, organic certification or membership of an assurance scheme with higher welfare standards, farmer's perception that there was a problem with pest birds, use of medication to treat coccidiosis and presence of lame sows on the farm. Reduced mortality was associated with insulated farrowing huts and door flaps, women working on the farm and the farmer reporting a problem with foxes. PMID:25175675

  11. Rural residency and the risk of mortality while waiting for liver transplantation.

    PubMed

    Renfrew, Paul Douglas; Molinari, Michele

    2012-01-01

    Our liver transplant program services a region that has a prominent rural demographic. The influence of rural residency on liver transplant wait-list mortality has not been previously studied. We hypothesized that residence in a rural setting, by imposing challenges to medical care access, might be associated with inferior survival while waiting for liver transplantation. To test this hypothesis, multivariable time-to-event analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards and competing risks regression on data from a consecutive five-yr cohort of 159 primary liver transplant candidates, to derive covariate adjusted effect measures for the association between residence in a rural area and wait-list mortality. For the primary analysis, a standardized, census-based, definition was used to assign rural residency status. The Kaplan-Meier estimated 90-d and one-yr wait-list mortality for the cohort was 7.6% (95% CI: 4.2-13.8) and 15.6% (95% CI: 9.4-25.2). The covariate adjusted hazard ratio for the relationship between Rural and Small Town residency status and wait-list mortality was 0.497 (95% CI: 0.171-1.438, p = 0.197) for the Cox regression model and 0.628 (95% CI: 0.224-1.757, p = 0.376) for the competing risk regression model. As defined in this study, candidate residence in a rural setting was not found to be associated with inferior survival while awaiting liver transplantation. PMID:22211831

  12. Development and Validation of a Clinical Risk-Assessment Tool Predictive of All-Cause Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Bello, Ghalib A; Dumancas, Gerard G; Gennings, Chris

    2015-01-01

    In clinical settings, the diagnosis of medical conditions is often aided by measurement of various serum biomarkers through the use of laboratory tests. These biomarkers provide information about different aspects of a patient’s health and overall function of multiple organ systems. We have developed a statistical procedure that condenses the information from a variety of health biomarkers into a composite index, which could be used as a risk score for predicting all-cause mortality. It could also be viewed as a holistic measure of overall physiological health status. This health status metric is computed as a function of standardized values of each biomarker measurement, weighted according to their empirically determined relative strength of association with mortality. The underlying risk model was developed using the biomonitoring and mortality data of a large sample of US residents obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the National Death Index (NDI). Biomarker concentration levels were standardized using spline-based Cox regression models, and optimization algorithms were used to estimate the weights. The predictive accuracy of the tool was optimized by bootstrap aggregation. We also demonstrate how stacked generalization, a machine learning technique, can be used for further enhancement of the prediction power. The index was shown to be highly predictive of all-cause mortality and long-term outcomes for specific health conditions. It also exhibited a robust association with concurrent chronic conditions, recent hospital utilization, and current health status as assessed by self-rated health. PMID:26380550

  13. Statistical process control of mortality series in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database: implications of the data generating process

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Statistical process control (SPC), an industrial sphere initiative, has recently been applied in health care and public health surveillance. SPC methods assume independent observations and process autocorrelation has been associated with increase in false alarm frequency. Methods Monthly mean raw mortality (at hospital discharge) time series, 1995–2009, at the individual Intensive Care unit (ICU) level, were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Evidence for series (i) autocorrelation and seasonality was demonstrated using (partial)-autocorrelation ((P)ACF) function displays and classical series decomposition and (ii) “in-control” status was sought using risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits (3 sigma). Risk adjustment was achieved using a random coefficient (intercept as ICU site and slope as APACHE III score) logistic regression model, generating an expected mortality series. Application of time-series to an exemplar complete ICU series (1995-(end)2009) was via Box-Jenkins methodology: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and (G)ARCH ((Generalised) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models, the latter addressing volatility of the series variance. Results The overall data set, 1995-2009, consisted of 491324 records from 137 ICU sites; average raw mortality was 14.07%; average(SD) raw and expected mortalities ranged from 0.012(0.113) and 0.013(0.045) to 0.296(0.457) and 0.278(0.247) respectively. For the raw mortality series: 71 sites had continuous data for assessment up to or beyond lag40 and 35% had autocorrelation through to lag40; and of 36 sites with continuous data for ≥ 72 months, all demonstrated marked seasonality. Similar numbers and percentages were seen with the expected series. Out-of-control signalling was evident for the raw mortality series with respect to RA-EWMA control limits; a seasonal ARMA model, with GARCH effects

  14. The challenges of the first migration: movement and behaviour of juvenile vs. adult white storks with insights regarding juvenile mortality.

    PubMed

    Rotics, Shay; Kaatz, Michael; Resheff, Yehezkel S; Turjeman, Sondra Feldman; Zurell, Damaris; Sapir, Nir; Eggers, Ute; Flack, Andrea; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Jeltsch, Florian; Wikelski, Martin; Nathan, Ran

    2016-07-01

    Migration conveys an immense challenge, especially for juvenile birds coping with enduring and risky journeys shortly after fledging. Accordingly, juveniles exhibit considerably lower survival rates compared to adults, particularly during migration. Juvenile white storks (Ciconia ciconia), which are known to rely on adults during their first fall migration presumably for navigational purposes, also display much lower annual survival than adults. Using detailed GPS and body acceleration data, we examined the patterns and potential causes of age-related differences in fall migration properties of white storks by comparing first-year juveniles and adults. We compared juvenile and adult parameters of movement, behaviour and energy expenditure (estimated from overall dynamic body acceleration) and placed this in the context of the juveniles' lower survival rate. Juveniles used flapping flight vs. soaring flight 23% more than adults and were estimated to expend 14% more energy during flight. Juveniles did not compensate for their higher flight costs by increased refuelling or resting during migration. When juveniles and adults migrated together in the same flock, the juvenile flew mostly behind the adult and was left behind when they separated. Juveniles showed greater improvement in flight efficiency throughout migration compared to adults which appears crucial because juveniles exhibiting higher flight costs suffered increased mortality. Our findings demonstrate the conflict between the juveniles' inferior flight skills and their urge to keep up with mixed adult-juvenile flocks. We suggest that increased flight costs are an important proximate cause of juvenile mortality in white storks and likely in other soaring migrants and that natural selection is operating on juvenile variation in flight efficiency. PMID:27046512

  15. Phenotypes, Risk Factors, and Mechanisms of Adult-Onset Asthma

    PubMed Central

    Ilmarinen, Pinja; Tuomisto, Leena E.; Kankaanranta, Hannu

    2015-01-01

    Asthma is a heterogeneous disease with many phenotypes, and age at disease onset is an important factor in separating the phenotypes. Genetic factors, atopy, and early respiratory tract infections are well-recognized factors predisposing to childhood-onset asthma. Adult-onset asthma is more often associated with obesity, smoking, depression, or other life-style or environmental factors, even though genetic factors and respiratory tract infections may also play a role in adult-onset disease. Adult-onset asthma is characterized by absence of atopy and is often severe requiring treatment with high dose of inhaled and/or oral steroids. Variety of risk factors and nonatopic nature of adult-onset disease suggest that variety of mechanisms is involved in the disease pathogenesis and that these mechanisms differ from the pathobiology of childhood-onset asthma with prevailing Th2 airway inflammation. Recognition of the mechanisms and mediators that drive the adult-onset disease helps to develop novel strategies for the treatment. The aim of this review was to summarize the current knowledge on the pathogenesis of adult-onset asthma and to concentrate on the mechanisms and mediators involved in establishing adult-onset asthma in response to specific risk factors. We also discuss the involvement of these mechanisms in the currently recognized phenotypes of adult-onset asthma. PMID:26538828

  16. Differences in Risk Aversion between Young and Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Albert, Steven M.; Duffy, John

    2013-01-01

    Research on decision-making strategies among younger and older adults suggests that older adults may be more risk averse than younger people in the case of potential losses. These results mostly come from experimental studies involving gambling paradigms. Since these paradigms involve substantial demands on memory and learning, differences in risk aversion or other features of decision-making attributed to age may in fact reflect age-related declines in cognitive abilities. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a simpler, paired lottery choice task used in the experimental economics literature to elicit risk aversion. A similar approach was used to elicit participants' discount rates. The older adult group was more risk averse than younger adults (p < .05) and also had a higher discount rate (15.6-21.0% vs. 10.3-15.5%, p < .01), indicating lower expected utility from future income. Risk aversion and implied discount rates were weakly correlated. It may be valuable to investigate developmental changes in neural correlates of decision-making across the lifespan. PMID:24319671

  17. 40-Year CHD Mortality Trends and the Role of Risk Factors in Mortality Decline: The North Karelia Project Experience.

    PubMed

    Jousilahti, Pekka; Laatikainen, Tiina; Salomaa, Veikko; Pietilä, Arto; Vartiainen, Erkki; Puska, Pekka

    2016-06-01

    In the 1960s and early 1970s, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Finland was the highest in the world, and within Finland, mortality was particularly high in the eastern part of the country. The North Karelia Project, the first large community-based cardiovascular diseases prevention program was established in 1972 to reduce the extremely high CHD mortality through behavioral change and reduction of the main cardiovascular disease risk factors among the whole population of North Karelia, the easternmost province of Finland. During the 40-year period from 1972 to 2012, smoking prevalence, serum total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure declined markedly, except a small increase in serum cholesterol levels between 2007 and 2012. From the early 1970s to 2012, CHD mortality decreased by 82% (from 643 to 118 per 100,000) among working-age (35 to 64 years) men. Among working-age women, the decline was 84% (from 114 to 17 per 100,000). During the first 10 years, changes in these 3 target risk factors explained nearly all of the observed mortality reduction. Since the mid-1980s, the observed reduction in mortality has been larger than the predicted reduction. In the early 1970s, premature CHD mortality (35 to 74 years) was about 37% higher among Eastern Finnish men and 23% higher among Eastern Finnish women, compared with men and women in Southwestern Finland. During the last 40 years, premature CHD mortality declined markedly in both areas, but the decline was larger in Eastern Finland and the mortality gap between the two areas nearly disappeared. PMID:27242088

  18. Relationship between body mass index reference and all-cause mortality: evidence from a large cohort of Thai adults.

    PubMed

    Yiengprugsawan, Vasoontara; Banwell, Cathy; Zhao, Jiaying; Seubsman, Sam-ang; Sleigh, Adrian C

    2014-01-01

    We investigate variation in body mass index (BMI) reference and 5-year all-cause mortality using data from 87151 adult Open University students nationwide. Analyses focused on BMI reference bands: "normal" (≥18.5 to <23), "lower normal" (≥18.5 to <20.75), "upper normal" (≥20.75 to <23), and "narrow Western normal" (≥23 to <25). We report hazard ratios (HR) and 95% Confidence Intervals adjusting for covariates. Compared to lower normal, adults aged 35-65 years who were obese (BMI ≥ 30) were twice as likely to die during the follow-up (HR 2.37; 1.01-5.70). For the same group, when using narrow Western normal as the reference, the results were similar (HR 3.02; 1.26-7.22). However, different combinations of BMI exposure and reference band produce quite different results. Older age persons belonging to Asian overweight BMI category (≥23 to <25) were relatively protected from mortality (HR 0.57; 0.34-0.96 and HR 0.49; 0.28-0.84) when assessed using normal (≥18.5 to <23) and upper normal (≥20.75 to <23) as reference bands. Use of different "normal" reference produced varying mortality relationships in a large cohort of Thai adults. Caution is needed when interpreting BMI-mortality data. PMID:25485146

  19. Clinical risk predictors associated with cardiac mortality following vascular surgery in South African patients.

    PubMed

    Biccard, B M; Bandu, R

    2007-01-01

    Clinical risk prediction is important in the prognostication of peri-operative cardiac complications and the management of high-risk cardiac patients for major non-cardiac surgery. However, the current pre-operative clinical risk indices have been derived in European and American patients and not validated in South African patients. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of the clinical risk predictors identified in Lee's revised cardiac risk index and in the African arm of the INTERHEART study, in predicting cardiac mortality following vascular surgery in South African patients. A retrospective cohort study was conducted of all patients undergoing elective or urgent vascular surgery at Inkosi Albert Luthuli Central Hospital over a three-year period. All in-hospital deaths were identified and classified into cardiac or non-cardiac deaths by an investigator blinded to the patients' pre-operative clinical risk predicators. A second investigator blinded to the cause of death identified the following clinical risk predictors: history of ischaemic heart disease, congestive cardiac failure and cerebrovascular accident, presence of diabetes, hypertension and obesity (BMI > 30 kg.m(-2)), elevated serum creatinine (> 180 micromol.l(-1)), positive smoking history and ethnicity. The main finding was that a serum creatinine level of greater than 180 micromol.l(-1) and a positive smoking history were significantly associated with cardiac death (p = 0.012, p = 0.012, respectively). Multivariate analyses using a backward stepwise modeling technique found only a serum creatinine of > 180 micromol.l(-1) and a positive smoking history to be significantly associated with cardiac mortality (p = 0.038, 0.035, respectively) with an odds ratio and 95% confidence interval of 3.02 (1.06-8.59) and 3.40 (1.09-10.62), respectively. All other clinical predictors were not significantly different between the two groups. However, based on the sample size of this study, a type 2 or

  20. Symptomatic Atherosclerotic Disease and Decreased Risk of Cancer-Specific Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Benito-León, Julián; de la Aleja, Jesús González; Martínez-Salio, Antonio; Louis, Elan D.; Lichtman, Judith H.; Bermejo-Pareja, Félix

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The few studies that have assessed the association between symptomatic atherosclerotic disease and risk of cancer have had conflicting results. In addition, these studies ascertained participants either from treatment settings (ie, service-based studies) or by using a records linkage system (ie, medical records of patients evaluated at clinics or hospitals) and, therefore, were prone to selection bias. Our purpose was to estimate the risk of cancer mortality in a large population-based sample of elderly people, comparing participants with symptomatic atherosclerotic disease (atherosclerotic stroke and coronary disease) to their counterparts without symptomatic atherosclerotic disease (ie, controls) in the same population. In this population-based, prospective study (Neurological Disorders of Central Spain, NEDICES), 5262 elderly community-dwelling participants with and without symptomatic atherosclerotic disease were identified and followed for a median of 12.1 years, after which the death certificates of those who died were reviewed. A total of 2701 (53.3%) of 5262 participants died, including 314 (68.6%) of 458 participants with symptomatic atherosclerotic disease and 2387 (49.7%) of 4804 controls. Cancer mortality was reported significantly less often in those with symptomatic atherosclerotic disease (15.6%) than in controls (25.6%) (P < 0.001). In an unadjusted Cox model, risk of cancer-specific mortality was decreased in participants with symptomatic atherosclerotic disease (HR = 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55−0.98, P = 0.04) vs. those without symptomatic atherosclerotic disease (reference group). In an adjusted Cox model, HR = 0.58; 95% CI, 0.38−0.89; P = 0.01. This population-based, prospective study suggests that there is an inverse association between symptomatic atherosclerotic disease and risk of cancer mortality. PMID:26266364

  1. Spatial impacts of heat waves in mortality. Evaluating current risks and future threats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrade, H.; Canario, P.; Nogueira, H.

    2009-09-01

    Impacts of heat waves in morbidity and mortality are largely known. Climate Change is expected to increase the climate health impacts in summer while the winter will be probably favored. The health impacts of extreme thermal events are mainly studied at a national or regional level, considering macro or mesoscale thermal features. But it can be assumed that local variations in mortality must exist, associated, in one hand, with local climatic differences, due to features such as land use and urbanization and, in other hand, with vulnerability factors (depending on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of populations). A model of hazard - vulnerability - risk was developed, to analyze the spatial variations of mortality in extreme thermal events, at the level of city district, in the Lisbon metropolitan area (Portugal). In that model, risk is considered as the product of hazard and vulnerability. Daily mortality data by sex, age and cause of death was supplied by the Health National Authority. The research is yet on-going. In our model, hazard is represented mainly by temperature and air pollution (the influence of other atmospheric variables that affect the human energy balance, such as solar radiation and wind speed should be tested too). Small scale variation of meteorological features, in extreme thermal events, were simulated with a Regional Atmospheric Model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) and the results were validated and calibrated using observation data from an urban network of termo-higrometers placed in sites with different urban characteristics. Vulnerability is a result on personal sensitivity and exposure. Personal sensitivity is assessed considering individual constitutional and demographic factors as well as socio, cultural and economic variables. Daily mobility determines the population exposure to heat. Since many of these variables are redundant, a set of indicators, including a multiple deprivation index, was used. A

  2. Incidence, risk factors and mortality of tuberculosis in Danish HIV patients 1995-2007

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection predisposes to tuberculosis (TB). We described incidence, risk factors and prognosis of TB in HIV-1 infected patients during pre (1995-1996), early (1997-1999), and late Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) (2000-2007) periods. Methods We included patients from a population-based, multicenter, nationwide cohort. We calculated incidence rates (IRs) and mortality rates (MRs). Cox's regression analysis was used to estimate risk factors for TB infection with HAART initiation included as time updated variable. Kaplan-Meier was used to estimate mortality after TB. Results Among 2,668 patients identified, 120 patients developed TB during the follow-up period. The overall IR was 8.2 cases of TB/1,000 person-years of follow-up (PYR). IRs decreased during the pre-, early and late-HAART periods (37.1/1000 PYR, 12.9/1000 PYR and 6.5/1000 PYR respectively). African and Asian origin, low CD4 cell count and heterosexual and injection drug user route of HIV transmission were risk factors for TB and start of HAART reduced the risk substantially. The overall MR in TB patients was 34.4 deaths per 1,000 PYR (95% Confidence Interval: 22.0-54.0) and was highest in the first two years after the diagnosis of TB. Conclusions Incidence of TB still associated with conventional risk factors as country of birth, low CD4 count and route of HIV infection while HAART reduces the risk substantially. The mortality in this patient population is high in the first two years after TB diagnosis. PMID:21605366

  3. Risk Factors for Recurrence, Complications and Mortality in Clostridium difficile Infection: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Abou Chakra, Claire Nour; Pepin, Jacques; Sirard, Stephanie; Valiquette, Louis

    2014-01-01

    Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) can lead to complications, recurrence, and death. Numerous studies have assessed risk factors for these unfavourable outcomes, but systematic reviews or meta-analyses published so far were limited in scope or in quality. Methods A systematic review was completed according to PRISMA guidelines. An electronic search in five databases was performed. Studies published until October 2013 were included if risk factors for at least one CDI outcome were assessed with multivariate analyses. Results 68 studies were included: 24 assessed risk factors for recurrence, 18 for complicated CDI, 8 for treatment failure, and 30 for mortality. Most studies accounted for mortality in the definition of complicated CDI. Important variables were inconsistently reported, such as previous episodes and use of antibiotics. Substantial heterogeneity and methodological limitations were noted, mainly in the sample size, the definition of the outcomes and periods of follow-up, precluding a meta-analysis. Older age, use of antibiotics after diagnosis, use of proton pump inhibitors, and strain type were the most frequent risk factors for recurrence. Older age, leucocytosis, renal failure and co-morbidities were frequent risk factors for complicated CDI. When considered alone, mortality was associated with age, co-morbidities, hypo-albuminemia, leucocytosis, acute renal failure, and infection with ribotype 027. Conclusion Laboratory parameters currently used in European and American guidelines to define patients at risk of a complicated CDI are adequate. Strategies for the management of CDI should be tailored according to the age of the patient, biological markers of severity, and underlying co-morbidities. PMID:24897375

  4. Anemia increases the mortality risk in patients with stroke: A meta-analysis of cohort studies

    PubMed Central

    Li, Zhanzhan; Zhou, Tao; Li, Yanyan; Chen, Peng; Chen, Lizhang

    2016-01-01

    The impact of anemia on the outcome of patients with stroke remains inconsistent. We performed a meta-analysis of cohort studies to assess the mortality risk in stroke patients with and without anemia. Systematic searches were conducted in the PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Web of Science and Wanfang databases to identify relevant studies from inception to November 2015. The estimated odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval was pooled. subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were also conducted. We used Begg’s funnel plot and Egger’s test to detect the potential publication bias. Thirteen cohort studies with a total of 19239 patients with stroke were included in this meta-analysis. The heterogeneity among studies was slight (I2 = 59.0%, P = 0.031). The results from a random-effect model suggest that anemia is associated with an increased mortality risk in patients with stroke (adjusted odds ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.22–1.58, P < 0.001). The subgroup analyses are consistent with the total results. This meta-analysis of 13 cohort studies finds that anemia increases the mortality risk in patients with stroke. Future studies should perform longer follow-up to confirm this finding and explore its possible mechanism. PMID:27211606

  5. Anemia increases the mortality risk in patients with stroke: A meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Li, Zhanzhan; Zhou, Tao; Li, Yanyan; Chen, Peng; Chen, Lizhang

    2016-01-01

    The impact of anemia on the outcome of patients with stroke remains inconsistent. We performed a meta-analysis of cohort studies to assess the mortality risk in stroke patients with and without anemia. Systematic searches were conducted in the PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Web of Science and Wanfang databases to identify relevant studies from inception to November 2015. The estimated odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval was pooled. subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were also conducted. We used Begg's funnel plot and Egger's test to detect the potential publication bias. Thirteen cohort studies with a total of 19239 patients with stroke were included in this meta-analysis. The heterogeneity among studies was slight (I(2) = 59.0%, P = 0.031). The results from a random-effect model suggest that anemia is associated with an increased mortality risk in patients with stroke (adjusted odds ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.22-1.58, P < 0.001). The subgroup analyses are consistent with the total results. This meta-analysis of 13 cohort studies finds that anemia increases the mortality risk in patients with stroke. Future studies should perform longer follow-up to confirm this finding and explore its possible mechanism. PMID:27211606

  6. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    PubMed

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders. PMID:26781555

  7. Risk of All-Cause Mortality in Alcohol-Dependent Individuals: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis☆

    PubMed Central

    Laramée, Philippe; Leonard, Saoirse; Buchanan-Hughes, Amy; Warnakula, Samantha; Daeppen, Jean-Bernard; Rehm, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    Background Alcohol dependence (AD) carries a high mortality burden, which may be mitigated by reduced alcohol consumption. We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis investigating the risk of all-cause mortality in alcohol-dependent subjects. Methods MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, Embase and PsycINFO were searched from database conception through 26th June 2014. Eligible studies reported all-cause mortality in both alcohol-dependent subjects and a comparator population of interest. Two individuals independently reviewed studies. Of 4540 records identified, 39 observational studies were included in meta-analyses. Findings We identified a significant increase in mortality for alcohol-dependent subjects compared with the general population (27 studies; relative risk [RR] = 3.45; 95% CI [2.96, 4.02]; p < 0.0001). The mortality increase was also significant compared to subjects qualifying for a diagnosis of alcohol abuse or subjects without alcohol use disorders (AUDs). Alcohol-dependent subjects continuing to drink heavily had significantly greater mortality than alcohol-dependent subjects who reduced alcohol intake, even if abstainers were excluded (p < 0.05). Interpretation AD was found to significantly increase an individual's risk of all-cause mortality. While abstinence in alcohol-dependent subjects led to greater mortality reduction than non-abstinence, this study suggests that alcohol-dependent subjects can significantly reduce their mortality risk by reducing alcohol consumption. PMID:26629534

  8. Muscle Quality and Myosteatosis: Novel Associations With Mortality Risk: The Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik Study.

    PubMed

    Reinders, Ilse; Murphy, Rachel A; Brouwer, Ingeborg A; Visser, Marjolein; Launer, Lenore; Siggeirsdottir, Kristin; Eiriksdottir, Gudny; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Jonsson, Palmi V; Lang, Thomas F; Harris, Tamara B

    2016-01-01

    Muscle composition may affect mortality risk, but prior studies have been limited to specific samples or less precise determination of muscle composition. We evaluated associations of thigh muscle composition, determined using computed tomography imaging, and knee extension strength with mortality risk among 4,824 participants aged 76.4 (standard deviation (SD), 5.5) years from the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik Study (2002-2006). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios. After 8.8 years of follow-up, there were 1,942 deaths. For men, each SD-increment increase in muscle lean area, muscle quality, and strength was associated with lower mortality risk, with decreases ranging between 11% and 22%. Each SD-increment increase in intermuscular adipose tissue and intramuscular adipose tissue was associated with higher mortality risk (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.13 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.22) and HR = 1.23 (95% CI: 1.15, 1.30), respectively). For women, each SD-increment increase in muscle lean area, muscle quality, and strength was associated with lower mortality risk, with decreases ranging between 12% and 19%. Greater intramuscular adipose tissue was associated with an 8% higher mortality risk (HR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.16). This study shows that muscle composition is associated with mortality risk. These results also show the importance of improving muscle strength and area and lowering muscle adipose tissue infiltration. PMID:26643983

  9. A High Dietary Glycemic Index Increases Total Mortality in a Mediterranean Population at High Cardiovascular Risk

    PubMed Central

    Castro-Quezada, Itandehui; Sánchez-Villegas, Almudena; Estruch, Ramón; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Corella, Dolores; Schröder, Helmut; Álvarez-Pérez, Jacqueline; Ruiz-López, María Dolores; Artacho, Reyes; Ros, Emilio; Bulló, Mónica; Covas, María-Isabel; Ruiz-Gutiérrez, Valentina; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel; Buil-Cosiales, Pilar; Gómez-Gracia, Enrique; Lapetra, José; Pintó, Xavier; Arós, Fernando; Fiol, Miquel; Lamuela-Raventós, Rosa María; Martínez-González, Miguel Ángel; Serra-Majem, Lluís

    2014-01-01

    Objective Different types of carbohydrates have diverse glycemic response, thus glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) are used to assess this variation. The impact of dietary GI and GL in all-cause mortality is unknown. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between dietary GI and GL and risk of all-cause mortality in the PREDIMED study. Material and Methods The PREDIMED study is a randomized nutritional intervention trial for primary cardiovascular prevention based on community-dwelling men and women at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Dietary information was collected at baseline and yearly using a validated 137-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). We assigned GI values of each item by a 5-step methodology, using the International Tables of GI and GL Values. Deaths were ascertained through contact with families and general practitioners, review of medical records and consultation of the National Death Index. Cox regression models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% CI for mortality, according to quartiles of energy-adjusted dietary GI/GL. To assess repeated measures of exposure, we updated GI and GL intakes from the yearly FFQs and used Cox models with time-dependent exposures. Results We followed 3,583 non-diabetic subjects (4.7 years of follow-up, 123 deaths). As compared to participants in the lowest quartile of baseline dietary GI, those in the highest quartile showed an increased risk of all-cause mortality [HR = 2.15 (95% CI: 1.15–4.04); P for trend  = 0.012]. In the repeated-measures analyses using as exposure the yearly updated information on GI, we observed a similar association. Dietary GL was associated with all-cause mortality only when subjects were younger than 75 years. Conclusions High dietary GI was positively associated with all-cause mortality in elderly population at high cardiovascular risk. PMID:25250626

  10. Dietary Patterns and Relationship to Obesity-Related Health Outcomes and Mortality in Adults 75 Years of Age or Greater

    PubMed Central

    Hsiao, P.Y.; Mitchell, D.C.; Coffman, D.L.; Wood, G. Craig; Hartman, T.J.; Still, C.; Jensen, G.L.

    2015-01-01

    Background The prevalence of obesity-related adverse health outcomes is increasing among older adults. Because it is thought that nutrition plays an important role in successful aging, there has been considerable interest in the association between dietary patterns of older adults and obesity-related health outcomes. Objective This study examined the association between dietary patterns and mortality and prevalence of obesity-related health outcomes, namely cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and metabolic syndrome (MetSyn), over a 5-year follow-up period in adults aged 75 years or greater. Design A longitudinal observational study with cross-sectional dietary assessment. Setting Rural Central Pennsylvania. Participants Community-dwelling older adults (N = 449; 76.5 years old; 57% female). Measurements Multiple, unannounced, 24-hour dietary recalls were used to collect dietary intake. Cluster analysis was used to derive dietary patterns. Prevalence of CVD, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and MetSyn was extracted from outpatient electronic medical records. Logistic regression was used to examine the associations between dietary patterns and health outcomes and mortality. Results ‘Sweets and Dairy’, ‘Health-Conscious’ and ‘Western’ dietary patterns were identified. Compared to the ‘Health-Conscious’ pattern, those in the ‘Sweets and Dairy’ pattern had increased odds of hypertension over the follow-up period; adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) was 2.18 (1.11-4.30). No significant associations were found for CVD, diabetes mellitus, MetSyn or mortality with dietary patterns. Conclusions These findings support the potential value of healthy dietary patterns in the management of hypertension in older adults. We did not observe any other strong associations between dietary patterns and health outcomes or mortality in persons ≥ 75 years of age; thus failing to support the use of overly restrictive diet prescriptions for

  11. Vascular risk assessment in older adults without a history of cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Bambrick, P; Tan, W S; Mulcahy, R; Pope, G A; Cooke, J

    2016-06-15

    Modern cardiovascular risk prediction tools, which have their genesis in the Framingham Heart Study, have allowed more accurate risk stratification and targeting of treatments worldwide over the last seven decades. Better cardiovascular risk factor control during this time has led to a reduction in cardiovascular mortality and, at least in part, to improved life expectancy. As a result, western societies as a whole have seen a steady increase in the proportion of older persons in their populations. Unfortunately, several studies have shown that the same tools which have contributed to this increase cannot be reliably extrapolated for use in older generations. Recent work has allowed recalibration of existing models for use in older populations but these modified tools still require external validation before they can be confidently applied in clinical practice. Another complication is emerging evidence that aggressive risk factor modification in older adults, particularly more frail individuals, may actually be harmful. This review looks at currently available cardiovascular risk prediction models and the specific challenges faced with their use in older adults, followed by analysis of recent attempts at recalibration for this cohort. We discuss the issue of frailty, looking at our evolving understanding of its constituent features and various tools for its assessment. We also review work to date on the impact of frailty on cardiovascular risk modification and outline its potentially central role in determining the most sensible approach in older patients. We summarise the most promising novel markers of cardiovascular risk which may be of use in improving risk prediction in older adults in the future. These include markers of vascular compliance (such as aortic pulse wave velocity and pulse wave analysis), of endothelial function (such as flow mediated dilation, carotid intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcium scores), and also biochemical and

  12. Dietary Patterns and Risk of Esophageal Cancer Mortality: The Japan Collaborative Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Okada, Emiko; Nakamura, Koshi; Ukawa, Shigekazu; Sakata, Kiyomi; Date, Chigusa; Iso, Hiroyasu; Tamakoshi, Akiko

    2016-01-01

    Several case-control studies have associated dietary patterns with esophageal cancer (EC) risk, but prospective studies are scarce. We investigated dietary pattern and EC mortality risk associations by smoking status. Participants were 26,562 40- to 79-yr-old Japanese men, who enrolled in the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study between 1988 and 1990. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for EC mortality in nonsmokers and smokers were estimated using Cox proportional models. During follow-up (1988-2009), 132 participants died of EC. Using a baseline food frequency questionnaire and factor analysis, vegetable, animal, and dairy product food patterns were identified. EC risk decreased significantly with a higher factor score for the dairy product pattern (Ptrend = 0.042) and was more pronounced in smokers [multivariable HR (4th vs. 1st quartiles) = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.30, 1.09; Ptrend = 0.021]. Neither vegetable nor animal food patterns were significant overall; however, EC risk increased with a higher factor score for the animal food pattern in nonsmokers [multivariable HR (4th vs. 1st quartiles) = 6.01, 95% CI: 1.17, 30.88; Ptrend = 0.021], although the small number of events was a limitation. Our findings suggest a dairy product pattern may reduce EC risk in Japanese men, especially smokers. PMID:27366932

  13. Hypnotic drug risks of mortality, infection, depression, and cancer: but lack of benefit

    PubMed Central

    Kripke, Daniel F.

    2016-01-01

    This is a review of hypnotic drug risks and benefits, reassessing and updating advice presented to the Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (United States FDA). Almost every month, new information appears about the risks of hypnotics (sleeping pills). This review includes new information on the growing USA overdose epidemic, eight new epidemiologic studies of hypnotics’ mortality not available for previous compilations, and new emphasis on risks of short-term hypnotic prescription. The most important risks of hypnotics include excess mortality, especially overdose deaths, quiet deaths at night, infections, cancer, depression and suicide, automobile crashes, falls, and other accidents, and hypnotic-withdrawal insomnia. The short-term use of one-two prescriptions is associated with greater risk per dose than long-term use. Hypnotics are usually prescribed without approved indication, most often with specific contraindications, but even when indicated, there is little or no benefit. The recommended doses objectively increase sleep little if at all, daytime performance is often made worse, not better, and the lack of general health benefits is commonly misrepresented in advertising. Treatments such as the cognitive behavioral treatment of insomnia and bright light treatment of circadian rhythm disorders might offer safer and more effective alternative approaches to insomnia. PMID:27303633

  14. CIBMTR Chronic GVHD Risk Score Predicts Mortality in an Independent Validation Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Arora, Mukta; Hemmer, Michael T.; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Klein, John P.; Cutler, Corey S.; Urbano-Ispizua, Alvaro; Couriel, Daniel R.; Alousi, Amin M.; Gale, Robert Peter; Inamoto, Yoshihiro; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; Li, Peigang; Antin, Joseph H.; Bolwell, Brian J.; Boyiadzis, Michael; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Cairo, Mitchell S.; Isola, Luis M.; Jacobsohn, David A.; Jagasia, Madan; Klumpp, Thomas R.; Petersdorf, Effie W.; Santarone, Stella; Schouten, Harry C.; Wingard, John R.; Spellman, Stephen R.; Pavletic, Steven Z.; Lee, Stephanie J.; Horowitz, Mary M.; Flowers, Mary E.D.

    2015-01-01

    We previously reported a risk score that predicted mortality in patients with chronic graft-versus-host disease (CGVHD) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HCT) between 1995–2004 and reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Registry (CIBMTR). We sought to validate this risk score in an independent CIBMTR cohort of 1128 patients with CGVHD transplanted between 2005–2007 using the same inclusion criteria and risk-score calculations. According to the sum of the overall risk score (range 1 to 12), patients were assigned to 4 risk-groups (RGs): RG1 (0–2), RG2 (3–6), RG3 (7–8) and RG4 (9–10). RG3 and 4 were combined as RG4 comprised only 1% of the total cohort. Cumulative incidences of non relapse mortality (NRM) and probability of overall survival (OS) were significantly different between each RG (all p<0.01). NRM and OS at five years after CGVHD for each RG were 17% and 72% in RG1, 26% and 53% in RG2, and 44% and 25% in RG 3, respectively (all p<0.01). Our study validates the prognostic value of the CIBMTR CGVHD RGs for OS and NRM in a contemporary transplant population. The CIBMTR CGVHD RGs can be used to predict major outcomes, tailor treatment planning, and enrollment in clinical trials. PMID:25528390

  15. Hypnotic drug risks of mortality, infection, depression, and cancer: but lack of benefit.

    PubMed

    Kripke, Daniel F

    2016-01-01

    This is a review of hypnotic drug risks and benefits, reassessing and updating advice presented to the Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (United States FDA). Almost every month, new information appears about the risks of hypnotics (sleeping pills). This review includes new information on the growing USA overdose epidemic, eight new epidemiologic studies of hypnotics' mortality not available for previous compilations, and new emphasis on risks of short-term hypnotic prescription. The most important risks of hypnotics include excess mortality, especially overdose deaths, quiet deaths at night, infections, cancer, depression and suicide, automobile crashes, falls, and other accidents, and hypnotic-withdrawal insomnia. The short-term use of one-two prescriptions is associated with greater risk per dose than long-term use. Hypnotics are usually prescribed without approved indication, most often with specific contraindications, but even when indicated, there is little or no benefit. The recommended doses objectively increase sleep little if at all, daytime performance is often made worse, not better, and the lack of general health benefits is commonly misrepresented in advertising. Treatments such as the cognitive behavioral treatment of insomnia and bright light treatment of circadian rhythm disorders might offer safer and more effective alternative approaches to insomnia. PMID:27303633

  16. Cerebrovascular Diseases in Workers at Mayak PA: The Difference in Radiation Risk between Incidence and Mortality.

    PubMed

    Simonetto, Cristoforo; Schöllnberger, Helmut; Azizova, Tamara V; Grigoryeva, Evgenia S; Pikulina, Maria V; Eidemüller, Markus

    2015-01-01

    A detailed analysis of cerebrovascular diseases (CeVD) for the cohort of workers at Mayak Production Association (PA) is presented. This cohort is especially suitable for the analysis of radiation induced circulatory diseases, due to the detailed medical surveillance and information on several risk factors. The risk after external, typically protracted, gamma exposure is analysed, accounting for potential additional internal alpha exposure. Three different endpoints have been investigated: incidence and mortality from all cerebrovascular diseases and incidence of stroke. Particular emphasis was given to the form of the dose-response relationship and the time dependence of the radiation induced risk. Young attained age was observed to be an important, aggravating modifier of radiation risk for incidence of CeVD and stroke. For incidence of CeVD, our analysis supports a dose response sub-linear for low doses. Finally, the excess relative risk per dose was confirmed to be significantly higher for incidence of CeVD compared to CeVD mortality and incidence of stroke. Arguments are presented for this difference to be based on a true biological effect. PMID:25933038

  17. Cerebrovascular Diseases in Workers at Mayak PA: The Difference in Radiation Risk between Incidence and Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Simonetto, Cristoforo; Schöllnberger, Helmut; Azizova, Tamara V.; Grigoryeva, Evgenia S.; Pikulina, Maria V.; Eidemüller, Markus

    2015-01-01

    A detailed analysis of cerebrovascular diseases (CeVD) for the cohort of workers at Mayak Production Association (PA) is presented. This cohort is especially suitable for the analysis of radiation induced circulatory diseases, due to the detailed medical surveillance and information on several risk factors. The risk after external, typically protracted, gamma exposure is analysed, accounting for potential additional internal alpha exposure. Three different endpoints have been investigated: incidence and mortality from all cerebrovascular diseases and incidence of stroke. Particular emphasis was given to the form of the dose-response relationship and the time dependence of the radiation induced risk. Young attained age was observed to be an important, aggravating modifier of radiation risk for incidence of CeVD and stroke. For incidence of CeVD, our analysis supports a dose response sub-linear for low doses. Finally, the excess relative risk per dose was confirmed to be significantly higher for incidence of CeVD compared to CeVD mortality and incidence of stroke. Arguments are presented for this difference to be based on a true biological effect. PMID:25933038

  18. Levels of Urbanization and Parental Education in Relation to the Mortality Risk of Young Children

    PubMed Central

    Fang, Hsin-Sheng; Chen, Wei-Ling; Chen, Chiu-Ying; Jia, Chun-Hua; Li, Chung-Yi; Hou, Wen-Hsuan

    2015-01-01

    Background: The establishment of the National Health Insurance program in Taiwan in 1995 effectively removed the financial barrier to access health care services of Taiwanese people. This population-based cohort study aimed to determine the independent and joint effects of parental education and area urbanization on the mortality risk among children under the universal health insurance coverage in Taiwan since 1995. Methods: We linked 1,501,620 births from 1996 to 2000 to the Taiwan Death Registry to estimate the neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality rates, according to the levels of parental education and urbanization of residential areas. We used a logistic regression model that considers data clustering to estimate the independent and joint effects. Results: Lower levels of parental education and area urbanization exerted an independent effect of mortality on young children, with a stronger magnitude noted for areas with lower levels of urbanization. Children whose parents had lower levels of education and who were born in areas with lower levels of urbanization experienced the highest risk for neonatal (odds ratio (OR) = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.46–1.76), infant (OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.48–1.70), and under-five (OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.61–1.82) mortality. Conclusions: Even with universal health insurance coverage, lower levels of area urbanization and parental education still exerted independent and joint effects on mortality in young children. This finding implies the inadequate accessibility to health care resources for children from socially disadvantaged families and less urbanized areas. PMID:26184248

  19. Development of a metabolites risk score for one-year mortality risk prediction in pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients

    PubMed Central

    Fontana, Andrea; Mazza, Tommaso; Tavano, Francesca; Gioffreda, Domenica; Mattivi, Fulvio; Andriulli, Angelo; Vrhovsek, Urska; Pazienza, Valerio

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Survival among patients with adenocarcinoma pancreatic cancer (PDCA) is highly variable, which ranges from 0% to 20% at 5 years. Such a wide range is due to tumor size and stage, as well other patients' characteristics. We analyzed alterations in the metabolomic profile, of PDCA patients, which are potentially predictive of patient's one-year mortality. Experimental design A targeted metabolomic assay was conducted on serum samples of patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Statistical analyses were performed only for those 27 patients with information on vital status at follow-up and baseline clinical features. Random Forest analysis was performed to identify all metabolites and clinical variables with the best capability to predict patient's mortality risk at one year. Regression coefficients were estimated from multivariable Weibull survival model, which included