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Sample records for adult population size

  1. Novel estimates of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult survival based on Wolbachia releases.

    PubMed

    Ritchie, Scott A; Montgomery, Brian L; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2013-05-01

    The size of Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito populations and adult survival rates have proven difficult to estimate because of a lack of consistent quantitative measures to equate sampling methods, such as adult trapping, to actual population size. However, such estimates are critical for devising control methods and for modeling the transmission of dengue and other infectious agents carried by this species. Here we take advantage of recent releases of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti coupled with the results of ongoing monitoring to estimate the size of adult Ae. aegypti populations around Cairns in far north Queensland, Australia. Based on the association between released adults infected with Wolbachia and data from Biogents Sentinel traps, we show that data from two locations are consistent with population estimates of approximately 5-10 females per house and daily survival rates of 0.7-0.9 for the released Wolbachia-infected females. Moreover, we estimate that networks of Biogents Sentinel traps at a density of one per 15 houses capture around 5-10% of the adult population per week, and provide a rapid estimate of the absolute population size of Ae. aegypti. These data are discussed with respect to release rates and monitoring in future Wolbachia releases and also the levels of suppression required to reduce dengue transmission.

  2. Estimating total population size for adult female sea turtles: Accounting for non-nesters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kendall, W.L.; Richardson, J.I.; Rees, Alan F.

    2008-01-01

    Assessment of population size and changes therein is important to sea turtle management and population or life history research. Investigators might be interested in testing hypotheses about the effect of current population size or density (number of animals per unit resource) on future population processes. Decision makers might want to determine a level of allowable take of individual turtles of specified life stage. Nevertheless, monitoring most stages of sea turtle life histories is difficult, because obtaining access to individuals is difficult. Although in-water assessments are becoming more common, nesting females and their hatchlings remain the most accessible life stages. In some cases adult females of a given nesting population are sufficiently philopatric that the population itself can be well defined. If a well designed tagging study is conducted on this population, survival, breeding probability, and the size of the nesting population in a given year can be estimated. However, with published statistical methodology the size of the entire breeding population (including those females skipping nesting in that year) cannot be estimated without assuming that each adult female in this population has the same probability of nesting in a given year (even those that had just nested in the previous year). We present a method for estimating the total size of a breeding population (including nesters those skipping nesting) from a tagging study limited to the nesting population, allowing for the probability of nesting in a given year to depend on an individual's nesting status in the previous year (i.e., a Markov process). From this we further develop estimators for rate of growth from year to year in both nesting population and total breeding population, and the proportion of the breeding population that is breeding in a given year. We also discuss assumptions and apply these methods to a breeding population of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) from

  3. Breeding durations as estimators of adult sex ratios and population size.

    PubMed

    Payne, Nicholas Leslie; Gillanders, Bronwyn May; Semmens, Jayson

    2011-02-01

    Adult sex ratios (ASRs) and population size are two of the most fundamental parameters in population biology, as they are the main determinants of genetic and demographic viability, and vulnerability of a population to stochastic events. Underpinning the application of population viability analysis for predicting the extinction risk of populations is the need to accurately estimate parameters that determine the viability of populations (i.e. the ASR and population size). Here we demonstrate that a lack of temporal information can confound estimation of both parameters. Using acoustic telemetry, we compared differences in breeding durations of both sexes for a giant Australian cuttlefish Sepia apama breeding aggregation to the strongly male-biased operational sex ratio (4:1), in order to estimate the population ASR. The ratio of breeding durations between sexes was equal to the operational sex ratio, suggesting that the ASR is not strongly male-biased, but balanced. Furthermore, the short residence times of individuals at the breeding aggregation suggests that previous density-based abundance estimates have significantly underestimated population size. With the current wide application of population viability analysis for predicting the extinction risk of populations, tools to improve the accuracy of such predictions are vital. Here we provide a new approach to estimating the fundamental ASR parameter, and call for temporal considerations when estimating population size.

  4. Deformable adult human phantoms for radiation protection dosimetry: anthropometric data representing size distributions of adult worker populations and software algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hum Na, Yong; Zhang, Binquan; Zhang, Juying; Caracappa, Peter F.; Xu, X. George

    2010-07-01

    Computational phantoms representing workers and patients are essential in estimating organ doses from various occupational radiation exposures and medical procedures. Nearly all existing phantoms, however, were purposely designed to match internal and external anatomical features of the Reference Man as defined by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). To reduce uncertainty in dose calculations caused by anatomical variations, a new generation of phantoms of varying organ and body sizes is needed. This paper presents detailed anatomical data in tables and graphs that are used to design such size-adjustable phantoms representing a range of adult individuals in terms of the body height, body weight and internal organ volume/mass. Two different sets of information are used to derive the phantom sets: (1) individual internal organ size and volume/mass distribution data derived from the recommendations of the ICRP in Publications 23 and 89 and (2) whole-body height and weight percentile data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999-2002). The NHANES height and weight data for 19 year old males and females are used to estimate the distributions of individuals' size, which is unknown, that corresponds to the ICRP organ and tissue distributions. This paper then demonstrates the usage of these anthropometric data in the development of deformable anatomical phantoms. A pair of phantoms—modeled entirely in mesh surfaces—of the adult male and female, RPI-adult male (AM) and RPI-adult female (AF) are used as the base for size-adjustable phantoms. To create percentile-specific phantoms from these two base phantoms, organ surface boundaries are carefully altered according to the tabulated anthropometric data. Software algorithms are developed to automatically match the organ volumes and masses with desired values. Finally, these mesh-based, percentile-specific phantoms are converted into voxel-based phantoms for Monte

  5. Deformable adult human phantoms for radiation protection dosimetry: anthropometric data representing size distributions of adult worker populations and software algorithms.

    PubMed

    Na, Yong Hum; Zhang, Binquan; Zhang, Juying; Caracappa, Peter F; Xu, X George

    2010-07-07

    Computational phantoms representing workers and patients are essential in estimating organ doses from various occupational radiation exposures and medical procedures. Nearly all existing phantoms, however, were purposely designed to match internal and external anatomical features of the Reference Man as defined by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). To reduce uncertainty in dose calculations caused by anatomical variations, a new generation of phantoms of varying organ and body sizes is needed. This paper presents detailed anatomical data in tables and graphs that are used to design such size-adjustable phantoms representing a range of adult individuals in terms of the body height, body weight and internal organ volume/mass. Two different sets of information are used to derive the phantom sets: (1) individual internal organ size and volume/mass distribution data derived from the recommendations of the ICRP in Publications 23 and 89 and (2) whole-body height and weight percentile data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999-2002). The NHANES height and weight data for 19 year old males and females are used to estimate the distributions of individuals' size, which is unknown, that corresponds to the ICRP organ and tissue distributions. This paper then demonstrates the usage of these anthropometric data in the development of deformable anatomical phantoms. A pair of phantoms--modeled entirely in mesh surfaces--of the adult male and female, RPI-adult male (AM) and RPI-adult female (AF) are used as the base for size-adjustable phantoms. To create percentile-specific phantoms from these two base phantoms, organ surface boundaries are carefully altered according to the tabulated anthropometric data. Software algorithms are developed to automatically match the organ volumes and masses with desired values. Finally, these mesh-based, percentile-specific phantoms are converted into voxel-based phantoms for Monte Carlo

  6. Life-history traits and effective population size in species with overlapping generations revisited: the importance of adult mortality.

    PubMed

    Waples, R S

    2016-10-01

    The relationship between life-history traits and the key eco-evolutionary parameters effective population size (Ne) and Ne/N is revisited for iteroparous species with overlapping generations, with a focus on the annual rate of adult mortality (d). Analytical methods based on populations with arbitrarily long adult lifespans are used to evaluate the influence of d on Ne, Ne/N and the factors that determine these parameters: adult abundance (N), generation length (T), age at maturity (α), the ratio of variance to mean reproductive success in one season by individuals of the same age (φ) and lifetime variance in reproductive success of individuals in a cohort (Vk•). Although the resulting estimators of N, T and Vk• are upwardly biased for species with short adult lifespans, the estimate of Ne/N is largely unbiased because biases in T are compensated for by biases in Vk• and N. For the first time, the contrasting effects of T and Vk• on Ne and Ne/N are jointly considered with respect to d and φ. A simple function of d and α based on the assumption of constant vital rates is shown to be a robust predictor (R(2)=0.78) of Ne/N in an empirical data set of life tables for 63 animal and plant species with diverse life histories. Results presented here should provide important context for interpreting the surge of genetically based estimates of Ne that has been fueled by the genomics revolution.

  7. Population Genetics with Fluctuating Population Sizes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2017-02-01

    Standard neutral population genetics theory with a strictly fixed population size has important limitations. An alternative model that allows independently fluctuating population sizes and reproduces the standard neutral evolution is reviewed. We then study a situation such that the competing species are neutral at the equilibrium population size but population size fluctuations nevertheless favor fixation of one species over the other. In this case, a separation of timescales emerges naturally and allows adiabatic elimination of a fast population size variable to deduce the fluctuation-induced selection dynamics near the equilibrium population size. The results highlight the incompleteness of the standard population genetics with a strictly fixed population size.

  8. Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama.

    PubMed

    Neira, Marco; Lacroix, Renaud; Cáceres, Lorenzo; Kaiser, Paul E; Young, Josue; Pineda, Lleysa; Black, Isaac; Sosa, Nestor; Nimmo, Derric; Alphey, Luke; McKemey, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed.

  9. Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama

    PubMed Central

    Neira, Marco; Lacroix, Renaud; Cáceres, Lorenzo; Kaiser, Paul E; Young, Josue; Pineda, Lleysa; Black, Isaac; Sosa, Nestor; Nimmo, Derric; Alphey, Luke; McKemey, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed. PMID:25410991

  10. An estimate of the historic population size of adult pallid sturgeon in the upper Missouri river basin, Montana and North Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Braaten, P.J.; Fuller, D.B.; Lott, R.D.; Jordan, G.R.

    2009-01-01

    Juvenile pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus raised in hatcheries and stocked in the wild are used to augment critically imperiled populations of this federally endangered species in the United States. For pallid sturgeon in recovery priority management area 2 (RPMA 2) of the Missouri River and lower Yellowstone River where natural recruitment has not occurred for decades, restoration programs aim to stock an annual minimum of 9000 juvenile pallid sturgeon for 20 years to re-establish a minimum population of 1700 adults. However, establishment of this target was based on general guidelines for maintaining the genetic integrity of populations rather than pallid sturgeon-specific demographic information because data on the historical population size was lacking. In this study, information from a recent population estimate (158 wild adults in 2004, 95% confidence interval 129-193 adults) and an empirically derived adult mortality rate (5%) was used in a cohort population model to back-estimate the historic abundance of adult pallid sturgeon in RPMA 2. Three back-estimation age models were developed, and assumed that adults alive during 2004 were 30-, 40-, or 50-years old. Based on these age assumptions, population sizes [??95% confidence intervals; (CI)] were back-estimated to 1989, 1979, and 1969 to approximate size of the population when individuals would have been sexually mature (15 years old) and capable of spawning. Back-estimations yielded predictions of 344 adults in 1989 (95% CI 281-420), 577 adults in 1979 (95% CI 471-704), and 968 adults in 1969 (95% CI 790-1182) for the 30-, 40-, and 50-year age models, respectively. Although several assumptions are inherent in the back-estimation models, results suggest the juvenile stocking program for pallid sturgeon will likely re-establish an adult population that equals in the short-term and exceeds in the long-term the predicted population numbers that occurred during past decades in RPMA 2. However, re

  11. Relationship between effective population size, inbreeding and adult fitness-related traits in a steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) population released in the wild.

    PubMed

    Naish, K A; Seamons, T R; Dauer, M B; Hauser, L; Quinn, T P

    2013-03-01

    Inbreeding is of concern in supportive breeding programmes in Pacific salmonids, Oncorhynchus spp, where the number of breeding adults is limited by rearing space or poor survival to adulthood, and large numbers are released to supplement wild stocks and fisheries. We reconstructed the pedigree of 6602 migratory hatchery steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) over four generations, to determine the incidence and fitness consequences of inbreeding in a northwest USA programme. The hatchery maintained an effective population size, Ñ(e) = 107.9 from F(0) to F(2), despite an increasing census size (N), which resulted in a decreasing N(e)/N ratio (0.35 in F(0) to 0.08 in F(2)). The reduced ratio was attributed to a small broodstock size, nonrandom transfers and high variance in reproductive success (particularly in males). We observed accumulation of inbreeding from the founder generation (in F(4), percentage individuals with inbreeding coefficients Δf > 0 = 15.7%). Generalized linear mixed models showed that body length and weight decreased significantly with increasing Δf, and inbred fish returned later to spawn in a model that included father identity. However, there was no significant correlation between Δf and age at return, female fecundity or gonad weight. Similarly, there was no relationship between Δf and reproductive success of F(2) and F(3) individuals, which might be explained by the fact that reproductive success is partially controlled by hatchery mating protocols. This study is one of the first to show that small changes in inbreeding coefficient can affect some fitness-related traits in a monitored population propagated and released to the wild.

  12. Effective Sizes for Subdivided Populations

    PubMed Central

    Chesser, R. K.; Rhodes-Jr., O. E.; Sugg, D. W.; Schnabel, A.

    1993-01-01

    Many derivations of effective population sizes have been suggested in the literature; however, few account for the breeding structure and none can readily be expanded to subdivided populations. Breeding structures influence gene correlations through their effects on the number of breeding individuals of each sex, the mean number of progeny per female, and the variance in the number of progeny produced by males and females. Additionally, hierarchical structuring in a population is determined by the number of breeding groups and the migration rates of males and females among such groups. This study derives analytical solutions for effective sizes that can be applied to subdivided populations. Parameters that encapsulate breeding structure and subdivision are utilized to derive the traditional inbreeding and variance effective sizes. Also, it is shown that effective sizes can be determined for any hierarchical level of population structure for which gene correlations can accrue. Derivations of effective sizes for the accumulation of gene correlations within breeding groups (coancestral effective size) and among breeding groups (intergroup effective size) are given. The results converge to traditional, single population measures when similar assumptions are applied. In particular, inbreeding and intergroup effective sizes are shown to be special cases of the coancestral effective size, and intergroup and variance effective sizes will be equal if the population census remains constant. Instantaneous solutions for effective sizes, at any time after gene correlation begins to accrue, are given in terms of traditional F statistics or transition equations. All effective sizes are shown to converge upon a common asymptotic value when breeding tactics and migration rates are constant. The asymptotic effective size can be expressed in terms of the fixation indices and the number of breeding groups; however, the rate of approach to the asymptote is dependent upon dispersal

  13. Effective sizes for subdivided populations

    SciTech Connect

    Chesser, R.K. Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA ); Rhodes, O.E. Jr.; Sugg, D.W.; Schnabel, A. )

    1993-12-01

    Many derivations of effective population sizes have been suggested in the literature; however, few account for the breeding structure and none can readily be expanded to subdivided populations. Breeding structures influence gene correlations through their effects on the number of breeding individuals of each sex, the mean number of progeny per female, and the variance in the number of progeny produced by males and females. Additionally, hierarchical structuring in a population is determined by the number of breeding groups and the migration rates of males and females among such groups. This study derives analytical solutions for effective sizes that can be applied to subdivided populations. Parameters that encapsulate breeding structure and subdivision are utilized to derive the traditional inbreeding and variance effective sizes. Also, it is shown that effective sizes can be determined for any hierarchical level of population structure for which gene correlations can accrue. Derivations of effective sizes for the accumulation of gene correlations within breeding groups (coancestral effective size) and among breeding groups (intergroup effective size) are given. The results converge to traditional single population measures when similar assumptions are applied. In particular, inbreeding and intergroup effective sizes are shown to be special cases of the coancestral effective size, and intergroup and variance effective sizes will be equal if the population census remains constant. Instantaneous solutions for effective size, at any time after gene correlation begins to accrue, are given in terms of traditional F statistics or transition equations. All effective sizes are shown to converge upon a common asymptotic value when breeding tactics and migration rates are constant. The asymptotic effective size can be expressed in terms of the fixation indices and the number of breeding groups; however, the rate of approach to the asymptote is dependent upon dispersal rates.

  14. Complex genetic architecture of population differences in adult lifespan of a beetle: nonadditive inheritance, gender differences, body size and a large maternal effect.

    PubMed

    Fox, C W; Czesak, M E; Wallin, W G

    2004-09-01

    Evolutionary responses to selection can be complicated when there is substantial nonadditivity, which limits our ability to extrapolate from simple models of selection to population differentiation and speciation. Studies of Drosophila melanogaster indicate that lifespan and the rate of senescence are influenced by many genes that have environment- and sex-specific effects. These studies also demonstrate that interactions among alleles (dominance) and loci (epistasis) are common, with the degree of interaction differing between the sexes and among environments. However, little is known about the genetic architecture of lifespan or mortality rates for organisms other than D. melanogaster. We studied genetic architecture of differences in lifespan and shapes of mortality curves between two populations of the seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus (South India and Burkina Faso populations). These two populations differ in various traits (such as body size and adult lifespan) that have likely evolved via host-specific selection. We found that the genetic architecture of lifespan differences between populations differs substantially between males and females; there was a large maternal effect on male lifespan (but not on female lifespan), and substantial dominance of long-life alleles in females (but not males). The large maternal effect in males was genetically based (there was no significant cytoplasmic effect) likely due to population differences in maternal effects genes that influence lifespan of progeny. Rearing host did not affect the genetic architecture of lifespan, and there was no evidence that genes on the Y-chromosome influence the population differences in lifespan. Epistatic interactions among loci were detectable for the mortality rate of both males and females, but were detectable for lifespan only after controlling for body size variation among lines. The detection of epistasis, dominance, and sex-specific genetic effects on C. maculatus lifespan is

  15. Eating habits of a population undergoing a rapid dietary transition: portion sizes of traditional and non-traditional foods and beverages consumed by Inuit adults in Nunavut, Canada

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background To determine the portion sizes of traditional and non-traditional foods being consumed by Inuit adults in three remote communities in Nunavut, Canada. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out between June and October, 2008. Trained field workers collected dietary data using a culturally appropriate, validated quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) developed specifically for the study population. Results Caribou, muktuk (whale blubber and skin) and Arctic char (salmon family), were the most commonly consumed traditional foods; mean portion sizes for traditional foods ranged from 10 g for fermented seal fat to 424 g for fried caribou. Fried bannock and white bread were consumed by >85% of participants; mean portion sizes for these foods were 189 g and 70 g, respectively. Sugar-sweetened beverages and energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods were also widely consumed. Mean portion sizes for regular pop and sweetened juices with added sugar were 663 g and 572 g, respectively. Mean portion sizes for potato chips, pilot biscuits, cakes, chocolate and cookies were 59 g, 59 g, 106 g, 59 g, and 46 g, respectively. Conclusions The present study provides further evidence of the nutrition transition that is occurring among Inuit in the Canadian Arctic. It also highlights a number of foods and beverages that could be targeted in future nutritional intervention programs aimed at obesity and diet-related chronic disease prevention in these and other Inuit communities. PMID:23724920

  16. Effective Population Sizes with Multiple Paternity

    PubMed Central

    Sugg, D. W.; Chesser, R. K.

    1994-01-01

    While the concept of effective population size is of obvious applicability to many questions in population genetics and conservation biology, its utility has suffered due to a lack of agreement among its various formulations. Often, mathematical formulations for effective sizes apply restrictive assumptions that limit their applicability. Herein, expressions for effective sizes of populations that account for mating tactics, biases in sex ratios, and differential dispersal rates (among other parameters) are developed. Of primary interest is the influence of multiple paternity on the maintenance of genetic variation in a population. In addition to the standard inbreeding and variance effective sizes, intragroup (coancestral) and intergroup effective sizes also are developed. Expressions for effective sizes are developed for the beginning of nonrandom gene exchanges (initial effective sizes), the transition of gene correlations (instantaneous effective sizes), and the steady-state (asymptotic effective size). Results indicate that systems of mating that incorporate more than one male mate per female increase all effective sizes above those expected from polygyny and monogamy. Instantaneous and asymptotic sizes can be expressed relative to the fixation indices. The parameters presented herein can be utilized in models of effective sizes for the study of evolutionary biology and conservation genetics. PMID:7982568

  17. Determining the Population Size of Pond Phytoplankton.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hummer, Paul J.

    1980-01-01

    Discusses methods for determining the population size of pond phytoplankton, including water sampling techniques, laboratory analysis of samples, and additional studies worthy of investigation in class or as individual projects. (CS)

  18. Detecting past changes of effective population size

    PubMed Central

    Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

    2014-01-01

    Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff. PMID:25067949

  19. Annual recapture and survival rates of two non-breeding adult populations of Roseate Terns Stema dougallii captured on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and estimates of their population sizes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Neill, P.; Minton, C.D.T.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hines, J.E.

    2008-01-01

    Capture-recapture data from two disparate breeding populations of Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) captured together as non-breeding individuals from 2002 to 2007 in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Australia were analyzed for both survival rate and recapture rate. The average annual survival rate for the birds from the Asian population (S. d. bangsi) (0.901) is higher than that of the other population of unknown breeding origin (0.819). There was large variability in survival in both populations among years, but the average survival rate of 0.85 is similar to estimates for the same species in North America. The Cormack-Jolly-Seber models used in program MARK to estimate survival rates also produced estimated of recapture probabilities and population sizes. These estimates of population size were 29,000 for S. D. bangsi and 8,300 for the study area and much larger than the documented numbers in the likely breeding areas, suggesting that many breeding sites are currently unknown.

  20. Innovativeness, population size and cumulative cultural evolution.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Aoki, Kenichi

    2012-08-01

    Henrich [Henrich, J., 2004. Demography and cultural evolution: how adaptive cultural processes can produce maladaptive losses-the Tasmanian case. Am. Antiquity 69, 197-214] proposed a model designed to show that larger population size facilitates cumulative cultural evolution toward higher skill levels. In this model, each newborn attempts to imitate the most highly skilled individual of the parental generation by directly-biased social learning, but the skill level he/she acquires deviates probabilistically from that of the exemplar (cultural parent). The probability that the skill level of the imitator exceeds that of the exemplar can be regarded as the innovation rate. After reformulating Henrich's model rigorously, we introduce an overlapping-generations analog based on the Moran model and derive an approximate formula for the expected change per generation of the highest skill level in the population. For large population size, our overlapping-generations model predicts a much larger effect of population size than Henrich's discrete-generations model. We then investigate by way of Monte Carlo simulations the case where each newborn chooses as his/her exemplar the most highly skilled individual from among a limited number of acquaintances. When the number of acquaintances is small relative to the population size, we find that a change in the innovation rate contributes more than a proportional change in population size to the cumulative cultural evolution of skill level.

  1. Estimating population size by genotyping faeces.

    PubMed

    Kohn, M H; York, E C; Kamradt, D A; Haught, G; Sauvajot, R M; Wayne, R K

    1999-04-07

    Population size is a fundamental biological parameter that is difficult to estimate. By genotyping coyote (Canis latrans) faeces systematically collected in the Santa Monica Mountains near Los Angeles, California, we exemplify a general, non-invasive method to census large mammals. Four steps are involved in the estimation. First, presumed coyote faeces are collected along paths or roadways where coyotes, like most carnivores, often defaecate and mark territorial boundaries. Second, DNA is extracted from the faeces and species identity and sex is determined by mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosome typing. Third, hypervariable microsatellite loci are typed from the faeces. Lastly, rarefaction analysis is used to estimate population size from faecal genotypes. This method readily provides a point count estimate of population size and sex ratio. Additionally, we show that home range use paternity and kinship can be inferred from the distribution and relatedness patterns of faecal genotypes.

  2. The Effective Size of a Subdivided Population

    PubMed Central

    Whitlock, M. C.; Barton, N. H.

    1997-01-01

    This paper derives the long-term effective size, N(e), for a general model of population subdivision, allowing for differential deme fitness, variable emigration and immigration rates, extinction, colonization, and correlations across generations in these processes. We show that various long-term measures of N(e) are equivalent. The effective size of a metapopulation can be expressed in a variety of ways. At a demographic equilibrium, N(e) can be derived from the demography by combining information about the ultimate contribution of each deme to the future genetic make-up of the population and Wright's F(ST)'s. The effective size is given by N(e) = 1/(1 + var ( &))<(1 - f(STi))/N(i)n>, where n is the number of demes, &(i) is the eventual contribution of individuals in deme i to the whole population (scaled such that σ(i) &(i) = n), and < > denotes an average weighted by &(i)(2). This formula is applied to a catastrophic extinction model (where sites are either empty or at carrying capacity) and to a metapopulation model with explicit dynamics, where extinction is caused by demographic stochasticity and by chaos. Contrary to the expectation from the standard island model, the usual effect of population subdivision is to decrease the effective size relative to a panmictic population living on the same resource. PMID:9136031

  3. Territorial defense, territory size, and population regulation.

    PubMed

    López-Sepulcre, Andrés; Kokko, Hanna

    2005-09-01

    The carrying capacity of an environment is determined partly by how individuals compete over the available resources. To territorial animals, space is an important resource, leading to conflict over its use. We build a model where the carrying capacity for an organism in a given environment results from the evolution of territorial defense effort and the consequent space use. The same evolutionary process can yield two completely different modes of population regulation. Density dependence arises through expanding and shrinking territories if fecundity is low, breeding success increases gradually with territory size, and/or defense is cheap. By contrast, when fecundity is high, breeding success sharply saturates with territory size, and/or defense is costly, we predict fixed territory sizes and regulation by floaters. These "surplus" individuals form a buffer against population fluctuations. Yet floaters can also harm breeder performance, and by comparing population growth of a territorial population to a nonterritorial (and individually suboptimal) alternative, we can quantify the harmful effect of evolutionary conflict on population performance. Territoriality has often been found to increase population stability, but this may come at a cost of reduced equilibrium densities.

  4. Family size and effective population size in a hatchery stock of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simon, R.C.; McIntyre, J.D.; Hemmingsen, A.R.

    1986-01-01

    Means and variances of family size measured in five year-classes of wire-tagged coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) were linearly related. Population effective size was calculated by using estimated means and variances of family size in a 25-yr data set. Although numbers of age 3 adults returning to the hatchery appeared to be large enough to avoid inbreeding problems (the 25-yr mean exceeded 4500), the numbers actually contributing to the hatchery production may be too low. Several strategies are proposed to correct the problem perceived. Argument is given to support the contention that the problem of effective size is fairly general and is not confined to the present study population.

  5. Estimating avian population size using Bowden's estimator

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diefenbach, D.R.

    2009-01-01

    Avian researchers often uniquely mark birds, and multiple estimators could be used to estimate population size using individually identified birds. However, most estimators of population size require that all sightings of marked birds be uniquely identified, and many assume homogeneous detection probabilities. Bowden's estimator can incorporate sightings of marked birds that are not uniquely identified and relax assumptions required of other estimators. I used computer simulation to evaluate the performance of Bowden's estimator for situations likely to be encountered in bird studies. When the assumptions of the estimator were met, abundance and variance estimates and confidence-interval coverage were accurate. However, precision was poor for small population sizes (N ??? 50) unless a large percentage of the population was marked (>75%) and multiple (???8) sighting surveys were conducted. If additional birds are marked after sighting surveys begin, it is important to initially mark a large proportion of the population (pm ??? 0.5 if N ??? 100 or pm > 0.1 if N ??? 250) and minimize sightings in which birds are not uniquely identified; otherwise, most population estimates will be overestimated by >10%. Bowden's estimator can be useful for avian studies because birds can be resighted multiple times during a single survey, not all sightings of marked birds have to uniquely identify individuals, detection probabilities among birds can vary, and the complete study area does not have to be surveyed. I provide computer code for use with pilot data to design mark-resight surveys to meet desired precision for abundance estimates. ?? 2009 by The American Ornithologists' Union. All rights reserved.

  6. Efficient and Unbiased Estimation of Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Cruz, Marcos; Gómez, Domingo; Cruz-Orive, Luis M.

    2015-01-01

    Population sizing from still aerial pictures is of wide applicability in ecological and social sciences. The problem is long standing because current automatic detection and counting algorithms are known to fail in most cases, and exhaustive manual counting is tedious, slow, difficult to verify and unfeasible for large populations. An alternative is to multiply population density with some reference area but, unfortunately, sampling details, handling of edge effects, etc., are seldom described. For the first time we address the problem using principles of geometric sampling. These principles are old and solid, but largely unknown outside the areas of three dimensional microscopy and stereology. Here we adapt them to estimate the size of any population of individuals lying on an essentially planar area, e.g. people, animals, trees on a savanna, etc. The proposed design is unbiased irrespective of population size, pattern, perspective artifacts, etc. The implementation is very simple—it is based on the random superimposition of coarse quadrat grids. Also, an objective error assessment is often lacking. For the latter purpose the quadrat counts are often assumed to be independent. We demonstrate that this approach can perform very poorly, and we propose (and check via Monte Carlo resampling) a new theoretical error prediction formula. As far as efficiency, counting about 50 (100) individuals in 20 quadrats, can yield relative standard errors of about 8% (5%) in typical cases. This fact effectively breaks the barrier hitherto imposed by the current lack of automatic face detection algorithms, because semiautomatic sampling and manual counting becomes an attractive option. PMID:26535587

  7. Genetic diversity, population structure, effective population size and demographic history of the Finnish wolf population.

    PubMed

    Aspi, J; Roininen, E; Ruokonen, M; Kojola, I; Vilà, C

    2006-05-01

    The Finnish wolf population (Canis lupus) was sampled during three different periods (1996-1998, 1999-2001 and 2002-2004), and 118 individuals were genotyped with 10 microsatellite markers. Large genetic variation was found in the population despite a recent demographic bottleneck. No spatial population subdivision was found even though a significant negative relationship between genetic relatedness and geographic distance suggested isolation by distance. Very few individuals did not belong to the local wolf population as determined by assignment analyses, suggesting a low level of immigration in the population. We used the temporal approach and several statistical methods to estimate the variance effective size of the population. All methods gave similar estimates of effective population size, approximately 40 wolves. These estimates were slightly larger than the estimated census size of breeding individuals. A Bayesian model based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations indicated strong evidence for a long-term population decline. These results suggest that the contemporary wolf population size is roughly 8% of its historical size, and that the population decline dates back to late 19th century or early 20th century. Despite an increase of over 50% in the census size of the population during the whole study period, there was only weak evidence that the effective population size during the last period was higher than during the first. This may be caused by increased inbreeding, diminished dispersal within the population, and decreased immigration to the population during the last study period.

  8. Population-regulating processes during the adult phase in flatfish

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rijnsdorp, A. D.

    Flatfish support major fisheries and the study of regulatory processes are of paramount importance for evaluating the resilience of the resource to exploitation. This paper reviews the evidence for processes operating during the adult phase that may 1. generate interannual variability in recruitment; 2. contribute to population regulation through density-dependent growth, density-dependent ripening of adults and density-dependent egg production. With regard to (1), there is evidence that in the adult phase processes do occur that may generate recruitment variability through variation in size-specific fecundity, contraction of spawning season, reduction in egg quality, change in sex ratio and size composition of the adult population. However, time series of recruitment do not provide support for this hypothesis. With regard to (2), there is ample evidence that exploitation of flatfish coincides with an increase in growth, although the mechanisms involved are not always clear. The presence of density-dependent growth in the adult phase of unexploited populations appears to be the most likely explanation in some cases. From the early years of exploitation of flatfish stocks inhabiting cold waters, evidence exists that adult fish do not spawn each year. Fecundity schedules show annual variations, but the available information suggests that size-specific fecundity is stable over a broad range of population abundance and may only decrease at high population abundance. The analysis is complicated by the possibility of a trade-off between egg numbers and egg size. Nevertheless, a density-dependent decrease in growth will automatically result in a decrease in absolute fecundity because of the reduced body size. The potential contribution of these regulatory effects on population regulation is explored. Results indicate that density-dependent ripening and absolute fecundity, mediated through density-dependent growth, may control recruitment at high levels of population

  9. Adult height, nutrition, and population health

    PubMed Central

    Perkins, Jessica M.; Subramanian, S.V.; Davey Smith, George

    2016-01-01

    In this review, the potential causes and consequences of adult height, a measure of cumulative net nutrition, in modern populations are summarized. The mechanisms linking adult height and health are examined, with a focus on the role of potential confounders. Evidence across studies indicates that short adult height (reflecting growth retardation) in low- and middle-income countries is driven by environmental conditions, especially net nutrition during early years. Some of the associations of height with health and social outcomes potentially reflect the association between these environmental factors and such outcomes. These conditions are manifested in the substantial differences in adult height that exist between and within countries and over time. This review suggests that adult height is a useful marker of variation in cumulative net nutrition, biological deprivation, and standard of living between and within populations and should be routinely measured. Linkages between adult height and health, within and across generations, suggest that adult height may be a potential tool for monitoring health conditions and that programs focused on offspring outcomes may consider maternal height as a potentially important influence. PMID:26928678

  10. Adult height, nutrition, and population health.

    PubMed

    Perkins, Jessica M; Subramanian, S V; Davey Smith, George; Özaltin, Emre

    2016-03-01

    In this review, the potential causes and consequences of adult height, a measure of cumulative net nutrition, in modern populations are summarized. The mechanisms linking adult height and health are examined, with a focus on the role of potential confounders. Evidence across studies indicates that short adult height (reflecting growth retardation) in low- and middle-income countries is driven by environmental conditions, especially net nutrition during early years. Some of the associations of height with health and social outcomes potentially reflect the association between these environmental factors and such outcomes. These conditions are manifested in the substantial differences in adult height that exist between and within countries and over time. This review suggests that adult height is a useful marker of variation in cumulative net nutrition, biological deprivation, and standard of living between and within populations and should be routinely measured. Linkages between adult height and health, within and across generations, suggest that adult height may be a potential tool for monitoring health conditions and that programs focused on offspring outcomes may consider maternal height as a potentially important influence.

  11. Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2012-01-01

    American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

  12. Effective Size of Populations under Selection

    PubMed Central

    Santiago, E.; Caballero, A.

    1995-01-01

    Equations to approximate the effective size (N(e)) of populations under continued selection are obtained that include the possibility of partial full-sib mating and other systems such as assortative mating. The general equation for the case of equal number of sexes and constant number of breeding individuals (N) is N(e) = 4N/[2(1 - α(I)) + (S(k)(2) + 4Q(2)C(2)) (1 + α(I) + 2α(O))], where S(k)(2) is the variance of family size due to sampling without selection, C(2) is the variance of selective advantages among families (the squared coefficient of variation of the expected number of offspring per family), α(I) is the deviation from Hardy-Weinberg proportions, α(O) is the correlation between genes of male and female parents, and Q(2) is the term accounting for the cumulative effect of selection on an inherited trait. This is obtained as Q = 2/[2 - G(1 + r)], where G is the remaining proportion of genetic variance in selected individuals and r is the correlation of the expected selective values of male and female parents. The method is also extended to the general case of different numbers of male and female parents. The predictive value of the formulae is tested under a model of truncation selection with the infinitesimal model of gene effects, where C(2) and G are a function of the selection intensity, the heritability and the intraclass correlation of sibs. Under random mating r = α(I) = -1/(N - 1) and α(O) = 0. Under partial full-sib mating with an average proportion β of full-sib matings per generation, r & β and α(O) & α(I) & β/ (4 - 3β). The prediction equation is compared to other approximations based on the long-term contributions of ancestors to descendants. Finally, based on the approach followed, a system of mating (compensatory mating) is proposed to reduce rates of inbreeding without loss of response in selection programs in which selected individuals from the largest families are mated to those from the smallest families. PMID:7713405

  13. Population pharmacokinetics of micafungin in adult patients.

    PubMed

    Gumbo, Tawanda; Hiemenz, John; Ma, Lei; Keirns, James J; Buell, Donald N; Drusano, George L

    2008-03-01

    We performed population pharmacokinetic analysis of micafungin in adult patients treated with doses between 12.5 and 200 mg/day. Our analysis identified a breakpoint patient weight of 66.3 kg above which serum clearance increased by approximately 50%. Patients with weight >66.3 kg may need larger doses to achieve similar exposures to those <66.3 kg. However, the clinical implications are still unknown.

  14. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  15. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  16. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  17. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  18. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  19. Estimates and Projections of the Limited English Proficient Adult Population in Need of Employment Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willette, JoAnne; And Others

    A study estimated the size of the population of adults and out-of-school youth with limited English proficiency (LEP) who need vocational education and related employment services and projected the size of this population from the time of the study to the year 2000. Research procedures included a literature review, an analysis of 1980 U.S. census…

  20. Inferring Past Effective Population Size from Distributions of Coalescent Times

    PubMed Central

    Gattepaille, Lucie; Günther, Torsten; Jakobsson, Mattias

    2016-01-01

    Inferring and understanding changes in effective population size over time is a major challenge for population genetics. Here we investigate some theoretical properties of random-mating populations with varying size over time. In particular, we present an exact solution to compute the population size as a function of time, Ne(t), based on distributions of coalescent times of samples of any size. This result reduces the problem of population size inference to a problem of estimating coalescent time distributions. To illustrate the analytic results, we design a heuristic method using a tree-inference algorithm and investigate simulated and empirical population-genetic data. We investigate the effects of a range of conditions associated with empirical data, for instance number of loci, sample size, mutation rate, and cryptic recombination. We show that our approach performs well with genomic data (≥ 10,000 loci) and that increasing the sample size from 2 to 10 greatly improves the inference of Ne(t) whereas further increase in sample size results in modest improvements, even under a scenario of exponential growth. We also investigate the impact of recombination and characterize the potential biases in inference of Ne(t). The approach can handle large sample sizes and the computations are fast. We apply our method to human genomes from four populations and reconstruct population size profiles that are coherent with previous finds, including the Out-of-Africa bottleneck. Additionally, we uncover a potential difference in population size between African and non-African populations as early as 400 KYA. In summary, we provide an analytic relationship between distributions of coalescent times and Ne(t), which can be incorporated into powerful approaches for inferring past population sizes from population-genomic data. PMID:27638421

  1. A phylogenetic analysis of egg size, clutch size, spawning mode, adult body size, and latitude in reef fishes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimatis, Katja; Riginos, Cynthia

    2016-06-01

    Theoretical treatments of egg size in fishes suggest that constraints on reproductive output should create trade-offs between the size and number of eggs produced per spawn. For marine reef fishes, the observation of distinct reproductive care strategies (demersal guarding, egg scattering, and pelagic spawning) has additionally prompted speculation that these strategies reflect alternative fitness optima with selection on egg size differing by reproductive mode and perhaps latitude. Here, we aggregate data from 278 reef fish species and test whether clutch size, reproductive care, adult body size, and latitudinal bands (i.e., tropical, subtropical, and temperate) predict egg size, using a statistically unified framework that accounts for phylogenetic correlations among traits. We find no inverse relationship between species egg size and clutch size, but rather that egg size differs by reproductive mode (mean volume for demersal eggs = 1.22 mm3, scattered eggs = 0.18 mm3, pelagic eggs = 0.52 mm3) and that clutch size is strongly correlated with adult body size. Larger eggs were found in temperate species compared with tropical species in both demersal guarders and pelagic spawners, but this difference was not strong when accounting for phylogenetic correlations, suggesting that differences in species composition underlies regional differences in egg size. In summary, demersal guarders are generally small fishes with small clutch sizes that produce large eggs. Pelagic spawners and egg scatterers are variable in adult and clutch size. Although pelagic spawned eggs are variable in size, those of scatterers are consistently small.

  2. Comparing population size estimators for plethodontid salamanders

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, L.L.; Simons, T.R.; Pollock, K.H.

    2004-01-01

    Despite concern over amphibian declines, few studies estimate absolute abundances because of logistic and economic constraints and previously poor estimator performance. Two estimation approaches recommended for amphibian studies are mark-recapture and depletion (or removal) sampling. We compared abundance estimation via various mark-recapture and depletion methods, using data from a three-year study of terrestrial salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Our results indicate that short-term closed-population, robust design, and depletion methods estimate surface population of salamanders (i.e., those near the surface and available for capture during a given sampling occasion). In longer duration studies, temporary emigration violates assumptions of both open- and closed-population mark-recapture estimation models. However, if the temporary emigration is completely random, these models should yield unbiased estimates of the total population (superpopulation) of salamanders in the sampled area. We recommend using Pollock's robust design in mark-recapture studies because of its flexibility to incorporate variation in capture probabilities and to estimate temporary emigration probabilities.

  3. Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size.

    PubMed

    Schrey, Aaron W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; McCoy, Earl D; Mushinsky, Henry R

    2016-07-01

    Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub.

  4. Effective number of breeders, effective population size and their relationship with census size in an iteroparous species, Salvelinus fontinalis

    PubMed Central

    Ruzzante, Daniel E.; McCracken, Gregory R.; Parmelee, Samantha; Hill, Kristen; Corrigan, Amelia; MacMillan, John; Walde, Sandra J.

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between the effective number of breeders (Nb) and the generational effective size (Ne) has rarely been examined empirically in species with overlapping generations and iteroparity. Based on a suite of 11 microsatellite markers, we examine the relationship between Nb, Ne and census population size (Nc) in 14 brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations inhabiting 12 small streams in Nova Scotia and sampled at least twice between 2009 and 2015. Unbiased estimates of Nb obtained with individuals of a single cohort, adjusted on the basis of age at first maturation (α) and adult lifespan (AL), were from 1.66 to 0.24 times the average estimates of Ne obtained with random samples of individuals of mixed ages (i.e. ). In turn, these differences led to adjusted Ne estimates that were from nearly five to 0.7 times the estimates derived from mixed-aged individuals. These differences translate into the same range of variation in the ratio of effective to census population size within populations. Adopting as the more precise and unbiased estimates, we found that these brook trout populations differ markedly in their effective to census population sizes (range approx. 0.3 to approx. 0.01). Using AgeNe, we then showed that the variance in reproductive success or reproductive skew varied among populations by a factor of 40, from Vk/k ≈ 5 to 200. These results suggest wide differences in population dynamics, probably resulting from differences in productivity affecting the intensity of competition for access to mates or redds, and thus reproductive skew. Understanding the relationship between Ne, Nb and Nc, and how these relate to population dynamics and fluctuations in population size, are important for the design of robust conservation strategies in small populations with overlapping generations and iteroparity. PMID:26817773

  5. Estimating hidden population size using Respondent-Driven Sampling data

    PubMed Central

    Handcock, Mark S.; Gile, Krista J.; Mar, Corinne M.

    2015-01-01

    Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) is n approach to sampling design and inference in hard-to-reach human populations. It is often used in situations where the target population is rare and/or stigmatized in the larger population, so that it is prohibitively expensive to contact them through the available frames. Common examples include injecting drug users, men who have sex with men, and female sex workers. Most analysis of RDS data has focused on estimating aggregate characteristics, such as disease prevalence. However, RDS is often conducted in settings where the population size is unknown and of great independent interest. This paper presents an approach to estimating the size of a target population based on data collected through RDS. The proposed approach uses a successive sampling approximation to RDS to leverage information in the ordered sequence of observed personal network sizes. The inference uses the Bayesian framework, allowing for the incorporation of prior knowledge. A flexible class of priors for the population size is used that aids elicitation. An extensive simulation study provides insight into the performance of the method for estimating population size under a broad range of conditions. A further study shows the approach also improves estimation of aggregate characteristics. Finally, the method demonstrates sensible results when used to estimate the size of known networked populations from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, and when used to estimate the size of a hard-to-reach population at high risk for HIV. PMID:26180577

  6. Population size, pollination and phenotypic trait selection in Phyteuma spicatum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weber, Anne; Kolb, Annette

    2013-02-01

    Plants in small populations may receive fewer visits, smaller pollen loads or pollen of poorer quality and suffer from reduced reproductive success compared to plants in larger populations. Consequently, pollen limitation of plants in small populations has been suggested to result in the evolution of reduced reliance on pollinators or the enhancement of traits that attract pollinators. The main aim of this study was to experimentally quantify the strength of pollinator-mediated selection on floral display size and flowering phenology in populations of varying size, using the self-incompatible, perennial herb Phyteuma spicatum as study species. We conducted supplementary hand pollinations in six populations (ranging in size between ca. 20-3000 flowering individuals) over two consecutive years and assessed selection gradients (i.e., trait-fitness relationships) in open- and hand-pollinated plants. Our results show that some populations are pollen limited in some years, but, contrary to our expectation, the degree of pollen limitation was not significantly related to population size. We found phenotypic selection for increased inflorescence size (in most populations and in both years), but we obtained no or no strong evidence that selection was pollinator-mediated or that the strength of selection was related to population size. This may have been the result of low statistical power, an inherent problem of studies examining effects of population size that require the inclusion of populations with only few individuals. In addition, given that selection appeared to be spatially and temporally variable, abiotic or biotic factors other than pollinators may have contributed to selection on inflorescence size.

  7. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

    PubMed Central

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

  8. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

    PubMed

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

  9. Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2001-01-01

    One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

  10. On the Meaning and Existence of an Effective Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Sjödin, P.; Kaj, I.; Krone, S.; Lascoux, M.; Nordborg, M.

    2005-01-01

    We investigate conditions under which a model with stochastic demography or population structure converges to the coalescent with a linear change in timescale. We argue that this is a necessary condition for the existence of a meaningful effective population size. We find that such a linear timescale change is obtained when demographic fluctuations and coalescence events occur on different timescales. Simple models of population structure and randomly fluctuating population size are used to exemplify the ideas and provide an intuitive feel for the meaning of the conditions. PMID:15489538

  11. Size & Flow: Adult Education Issues in the Senate Immigration Bill

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Garrett; Spangenberg, Gail

    2014-01-01

    In this essay Garrett Murphy and Gail Spangenberg report on the need for understanding better than in the past, the number of undocumented immigrants likely to need adult education services under provisions of Senate Immigration Bill S.744. The essay looks at why the issues of "size and flow" are important for planners, providers, and…

  12. A Meta-Analysis of Dunn and Dunn Model Correlational Research with Adult Populations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mangino, Christine

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to conduct a quantitative synthesis of correlational research that focused on the Dunn and Dunn Learning-Style Model and was concerned with adult populations. A total of 8,661 participants from the 47 original investigations provided 386 individual effect sizes for this meta-analysis. The mean effect size was…

  13. The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations

    PubMed Central

    Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Whiteley, Andrew R; Kuparinen, Anna; Matsumura, Shuichi; Venturelli, Paul A; Wolter, Christian; Slate, Jon; Primmer, Craig R; Meinelt, Thomas; Killen, Shaun S; Bierbach, David; Polverino, Giovanni; Ludwig, Arne; Arlinghaus, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size. PMID:26136825

  14. Nightmares: Risk Factors Among the Finnish General Adult Population

    PubMed Central

    Sandman, Nils; Valli, Katja; Kronholm, Erkki; Revonsuo, Antti; Laatikainen, Tiina; Paunio, Tiina

    2015-01-01

    Study Objectives: To identify risk factors for experiencing nightmares among the Finnish general adult population. The study aimed to both test whether previously reported correlates of frequent nightmares could be reproduced in a large population sample and to explore previously unreported associations. Design: Two independent cross-sectional population surveys of the National FINRISK Study. Setting: Age- and sex-stratified random samples of the Finnish population in 2007 and 2012. Participants: A total of 13,922 participants (6,515 men and 7,407 women) aged 25–74 y. Interventions: N/A. Measurements and results: Nightmare frequency as well as several items related to socioeconomic status, sleep, mental well-being, life satisfaction, alcohol use, medication, and physical well-being were recorded with a questionnaire. In multinomial logistic regression analysis, a depression-related negative attitude toward the self (odds ratio [OR] 1.32 per 1-point increase), insomnia (OR 6.90), and exhaustion and fatigue (OR 6.86) were the strongest risk factors for experiencing frequent nightmares (P < 0.001 for all). Sex, age, a self-reported impaired ability to work, low life satisfaction, the use of antidepressants or hypnotics, and frequent heavy use of alcohol were also strongly associated with frequent nightmares (P < 0.001 for all). Conclusions: Symptoms of depression and insomnia were the strongest predictors of frequent nightmares in this dataset. Additionally, a wide variety of factors related to psychological and physical well-being were associated with nightmare frequency with modest effect sizes. Hence, nightmare frequency appears to have a strong connection with sleep and mood problems, but is also associated with a variety of measures of psychological and physical well-being. Citation: Sandman N, Valli K, Kronholm E, Revonsuo A, Laatikainen T, Paunio T. Nightmares: risk factors among the finnish general adult population. SLEEP 2015;38(4):507–514. PMID:25325474

  15. Adult and larval traits as determinants of geographic range size among tropical reef fishes

    PubMed Central

    Luiz, Osmar J.; Allen, Andrew P.; Robertson, D. Ross; Floeter, Sergio R.; Kulbicki, Michel; Vigliola, Laurent; Becheler, Ronan; Madin, Joshua S.

    2013-01-01

    Most marine organisms disperse via ocean currents as larvae, so it is often assumed that larval-stage duration is the primary determinant of geographic range size. However, empirical tests of this relationship have yielded mixed results, and alternative hypotheses have rarely been considered. Here we assess the relative influence of adult and larval-traits on geographic range size using a global dataset encompassing 590 species of tropical reef fishes in 47 families, the largest compilation of such data to date for any marine group. We analyze this database using linear mixed-effect models to control for phylogeny and geographical limits on range size. Our analysis indicates that three adult traits likely to affect the capacity of new colonizers to survive and establish reproductive populations (body size, schooling behavior, and nocturnal activity) are equal or better predictors of geographic range size than pelagic larval duration. We conclude that adult life-history traits that affect the postdispersal persistence of new populations are primary determinants of successful range extension and, consequently, of geographic range size among tropical reef fishes. PMID:24065830

  16. Rate of language evolution is affected by population size.

    PubMed

    Bromham, Lindell; Hua, Xia; Fitzpatrick, Thomas G; Greenhill, Simon J

    2015-02-17

    The effect of population size on patterns and rates of language evolution is controversial. Do languages with larger speaker populations change faster due to a greater capacity for innovation, or do smaller populations change faster due to more efficient diffusion of innovations? Do smaller populations suffer greater loss of language elements through founder effects or drift, or do languages with more speakers lose features due to a process of simplification? Revealing the influence of population size on the tempo and mode of language evolution not only will clarify underlying mechanisms of language change but also has practical implications for the way that language data are used to reconstruct the history of human cultures. Here, we provide, to our knowledge, the first empirical, statistically robust test of the influence of population size on rates of language evolution, controlling for the evolutionary history of the populations and formally comparing the fit of different models of language evolution. We compare rates of gain and loss of cognate words for basic vocabulary in Polynesian languages, an ideal test case with a well-defined history. We demonstrate that larger populations have higher rates of gain of new words whereas smaller populations have higher rates of word loss. These results show that demographic factors can influence rates of language evolution and that rates of gain and loss are affected differently. These findings are strikingly consistent with general predictions of evolutionary models.

  17. Small body size in an insect shifts development, prior to adult eclosion, towards early reproduction

    PubMed Central

    Thorne, Ashley D; Pexton, John J; Dytham, Calvin; Mayhew, Peter J

    2006-01-01

    Life-history theory has suggested that individual body size can strongly affect the allocation of resources to reproduction and away from other traits such as survival. In many insects, adults eclose with a proportion of their potential lifetime egg production that is already mature (the ovigeny index). We establish for the solitary parasitoid wasp Aphaereta genevensis that the ovigeny index decreases with adult body size, despite both initial egg load and potential lifetime fecundity increasing with body size. This outcome is predicted by adaptive models and is the first unequivocal intraspecific demonstration. Evidence suggests that a high ovigeny index carries a cost of reduced longevity in insects. Our results therefore contribute to the emerging evidence that small body size can favour a developmental shift in juveniles that favours early reproduction, but which has adverse late-life consequences. These findings are likely to have important implications for developmental biologists and population biologists. PMID:16600887

  18. Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples

    PubMed Central

    Sevelius, Jae M.

    2017-01-01

    Background. Transgender individuals have a gender identity that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. The population size of transgender individuals in the United States is not well-known, in part because official records, including the US Census, do not include data on gender identity. Population surveys today more often collect transgender-inclusive gender-identity data, and secular trends in culture and the media have created a somewhat more favorable environment for transgender people. Objectives. To estimate the current population size of transgender individuals in the United States and evaluate any trend over time. Search methods. In June and July 2016, we searched PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Web of Science for national surveys, as well as “gray” literature, through an Internet search. We limited the search to 2006 through 2016. Selection criteria. We selected population-based surveys that used probability sampling and included self-reported transgender-identity data. Data collection and analysis. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool eligible surveys and used meta-regression to address our hypothesis that the transgender population size estimate would increase over time. We used subsample and leave-one-out analysis to assess for bias. Main results. Our meta-regression model, based on 12 surveys covering 2007 to 2015, explained 62.5% of model heterogeneity, with a significant effect for each unit increase in survey year (F = 17.122; df = 1,10; b = 0.026%; P = .002). Extrapolating these results to 2016 suggested a current US population size of 390 adults per 100 000, or almost 1 million adults nationally. This estimate may be more indicative for younger adults, who represented more than 50% of the respondents in our analysis. Authors’ conclusions. Future national surveys are likely to observe higher numbers of transgender people. The large variety in questions used to ask

  19. Empty Niches after Extinctions Increase Population Sizes of Modern Corals.

    PubMed

    Prada, Carlos; Hanna, Bishoy; Budd, Ann F; Woodley, Cheryl M; Schmutz, Jeremy; Grimwood, Jane; Iglesias-Prieto, Roberto; Pandolfi, John M; Levitan, Don; Johnson, Kenneth G; Knowlton, Nancy; Kitano, Hiroaki; DeGiorgio, Michael; Medina, Mónica

    2016-12-05

    Large environmental fluctuations often cause mass extinctions, extirpating species and transforming communities [1, 2]. While the effects on community structure are evident in the fossil record, demographic consequences for populations of individual species are harder to evaluate because fossils reveal relative, but not absolute, abundances. However, genomic analyses of living species that have survived a mass extinction event offer the potential for understanding the demographic effects of such environmental fluctuations on extant species. Here, we show how environmental variation since the Pliocene has shaped demographic changes in extant corals of the genus Orbicella, major extant reef builders in the Caribbean that today are endangered. We use genomic approaches to estimate previously unknown current and past population sizes over the last 3 million years. Populations of all three Orbicella declined around 2-1 million years ago, coincident with the extinction of at least 50% of Caribbean coral species. The estimated changes in population size are consistent across the three species despite their ecological differences. Subsequently, two shallow-water specialists expanded their population sizes at least 2-fold, over a time that overlaps with the disappearance of their sister competitor species O. nancyi (the organ-pipe Orbicella). Our study suggests that populations of Orbicella species are capable of rebounding from reductions in population size under suitable conditions and that the effective population size of modern corals provides rich standing genetic variation for corals to adapt to climate change. For conservation genetics, our study suggests the need to evaluate genetic variation under appropriate demographic models.

  20. Population size and time since island isolation determine genetic diversity loss in insular frog populations.

    PubMed

    Wang, Supen; Zhu, Wei; Gao, Xu; Li, Xianping; Yan, Shaofei; Liu, Xuan; Yang, Ji; Gao, Zengxiang; Li, Yiming

    2014-02-01

    Understanding the factors that contribute to loss of genetic diversity in fragmented populations is crucial for conservation measurements. Land-bridge archipelagoes offer ideal model systems for identifying the long-term effects of these factors on genetic variations in wild populations. In this study, we used nine microsatellite markers to quantify genetic diversity and differentiation of 810 pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus) from 24 islands of the Zhoushan Archipelago and three sites on nearby mainland China and estimated the effects of the island area, population size, time since island isolation, distance to the mainland and distance to the nearest larger island on reduced genetic diversity of insular populations. The mainland populations displayed higher genetic diversity than insular populations. Genetic differentiations and no obvious gene flow were detected among the frog populations on the islands. Hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that only time since island isolation (square-root-transformed) and population size (log-transformed) significantly contributed to insular genetic diversity. These results suggest that decreased genetic diversity and genetic differentiations among insular populations may have been caused by random genetic drift following isolation by rising sea levels during the Holocene. The results provide strong evidence for a relationship between retained genetic diversity and population size and time since island isolation for pond frogs on the islands, consistent with the prediction of the neutral theory for finite populations. Our study highlights the importance of the size and estimated isolation time of populations in understanding the mechanisms of genetic diversity loss and differentiation in fragmented wild populations.

  1. The Population Size of the Lesser Bandicoot (Bandicota bengalensis) in Three Markets in Penang, Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Khairuddin, Nurul Liyana; Raghazli, Razlina; Sah, Shahrul Anuar Mohd; Shafie, Nur Juliani; Azman, Nur Munira

    2011-01-01

    A study of the population size of Bandicota bengalensis rats in three markets in Penang was conducted from April 2004 through May 2005. Taman Tun Sardon Market (TTS), Batu Lanchang Market (BTLG) and Bayan Lepas Market (BYNLP) were surveyed. Six sampling sessions were conducted in each market for four consecutive nights per session. The total captures of B. bengalensis in TTS, BTLG and BYNLP were 92%, 73% and 89% respectively. The total population of B. bengalensis in TTS was estimated as 265.4 (with a 95% confidence interval of 180.9–424.2). The total population at BTLG was estimated as 69.9 (with a 95% confidence interval of 35.5–148.9). At BYNLP, the total population was estimated as 134.7 (with a 95% confidence interval of 77.8–278.4). In general, adult male rats were captured most frequently at each site (55.19%), followed by adult females (31.69%), juvenile males (9.84%) and juvenile females (3.27%). The results showed that the number of rats captured at each site differed significantly according to sex ratio and maturity (χ2 = 121.45, df = 3, p<0.01). Our results suggest that the population sizes found by the study may not represent the actual population size in each market owing to the low numbers of rats recaptured. This finding might have resulted from the variety of foods available in the markets. PMID:24575219

  2. Can estimates of genetic effective population size contribute to fisheries stock assessments?

    PubMed

    Ovenden, J R; Leigh, G M; Blower, D C; Jones, A T; Moore, A; Bustamante, C; Buckworth, R C; Bennett, M B; Dudgeon, C L

    2016-12-01

    Sustainable exploitation of fisheries populations is challenging to achieve when the size of the population prior to exploitation and the actual numbers removed over time and across fishing zones are not clearly known. Quantitative fisheries' modeling is able to address this problem, but accurate and reliable model outcomes depend on high quality input data. Much of this information is obtained through the operation of the fishery under consideration, but while this seems appropriate, biases may occur. For example, poorly quantified changes in fishing methods that increase catch rates can erroneously suggest that the overall population size is increasing. Hence, the incorporation of estimates of abundance derived from independent data sources is preferable. We review and evaluate a fisheries-independent method of indexing population size; inferring adult abundance from estimates of the genetic effective size of a population (Ne ). Recent studies of elasmobranch species have shown correspondence between Ne and ecologically determined estimates of the population size (N). Simulation studies have flagged the possibility that the range of Ne /N ratios across species may be more restricted than previously thought, and also show that declines in Ne track declines in the abundance of model fisheries species. These key developments bring this new technology closer to implementation in fisheries science, particularly for data-poor fisheries or species of conservation interest.

  3. Bayesian Optimization Algorithm, Population Sizing, and Time to Convergence

    SciTech Connect

    Pelikan, M.; Goldberg, D.E.; Cantu-Paz, E.

    2000-01-19

    This paper analyzes convergence properties of the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA). It settles the BOA into the framework of problem decomposition used frequently in order to model and understand the behavior of simple genetic algorithms. The growth of the population size and the number of generations until convergence with respect to the size of a problem is theoretically analyzed. The theoretical results are supported by a number of experiments.

  4. Dispatch centres: what is the right population catchment size?

    PubMed

    Dami, Fabrice; Fuchs, Vincent; Hugli, Olivier

    2015-04-09

    Literature on medical dispatch is growing, focusing mainly on efficiency (under and overtriage) and dispatch-assisted CPR. But the issue of population catchment size, functional costs and rationalization is rarely addressed. If we can observe a trend toward a decreasing number of dispatch centres in many European countries, there is today no evidence on what is the right catchment size to reach the best balance between quality of services and costs.

  5. Population size, survival, growth, and movements of Rana sierrae

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A. W.; Halstead, Brian J.; Link, William

    2013-01-01

    Based on 2431 captures of 757 individual frogs over a 9-yr period, we found that the population of R. sierrae in one meadow–stream complex in Yosemite National Park ranged from an estimated 45 to 115 adult frogs. Rana sierrae at our relatively low elevation site (2200 m) grew at a fast rate (K = 0.73–0.78), had high overwintering survival rates (44.6–95%), lived a long time (up to 16 yr), and tended to be fairly sedentary during the summer (100% minimum convex polygon annual home ranges of 139 m2) but had low year-to-year site fidelity. Even though the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) has been present in the population for at least 13 yr, there was no clear downward trend as might be expected from reports of R. sierrae population declines associated with Bd or from reports of widespread population decline of R. sierrae throughout its range.

  6. The elusive minimum viable population size for white sturgeon

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, Yetta; Lepla, Ken B.; Van Winkle, Webb; James, Mr Brad; McAdam, Dr Steve

    2010-01-01

    Biological conservation of sturgeon populations is a concern for many species. Those responsible for managing the white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) and similar species are interested in identifying extinction thresholds to avoid. Two thresholds that exist in theory are the minimum viable population size (MVP) and minimum amount of suitable habitat. In this paper, we present both model and empirical estimates of these thresholds. We modified a population viability analysis (PVA) model for white sturgeon to include two new Allee mechanisms. Despite this, PVA-based MVP estimates were unrealistically low compared with empirical estimates unless opportunities for spawning were assumed to be less frequent. PVA results revealed a trade-off between MVP and habitat thresholds; smaller populations persisted in longer river segments and vice versa. Our empirical analyses suggested (1) a MVP range based on population trends from 1,194 to 27,700 individuals, and (2) a MVP estimate of 4,000 individuals based on recruitment. Long-term historical population surveys are needed for more populations to pinpoint an MVP based on trends, whereas the available data were sufficient to estimate MVP based on recruitment. Beyond the MVP, we developed a hierarchical model for population status based on empirical data. Metapopulation support was the most important predictor of population health, followed by the length of free-flowing habitat, with habitat thresholds at 26 and 150 km. Together, these results suggest that habitat and connectivity are important determinants of population status that likely influence the site-specific MVP thresholds.

  7. Geographical variations in adult body size and reproductive life history traits in an invasive anuran, Discoglossus pictus.

    PubMed

    Oromi, Neus; Pujol-Buxó, Eudald; San Sebastián, Olatz; Llorente, Gustavo A; Hammou, Mohamed Aït; Sanuy, Delfi

    2016-06-01

    Variability in life history traits positively affects the establishment and expansive potential of invasive species. In the present study, we analysed the variation of body size in seven populations - two native and five invasive - of the painted frog (Discoglossus pictus, Anura: Discoglossidae), native to North Africa and introduced in southern France and the north-east of the Iberian Peninsula. Other life history traits (age at maturity, size at maturity, longevity, median age and potential reproductive lifespan) were analysed in a native and an invasive population. We observed geographic variations in adult body size, related mainly to mean annual precipitation. Thus, populations had greater body size as mean annual precipitation increased, resulting in bigger specimens in the invasive populations. Adult body size and growth rates also varied between sexes in all studied populations, with males significantly larger than females. Age distribution varied between native (1-5 years) and invasive populations (2-4 years) and also between sexes. Our results suggest that higher precipitation promotes faster growth rates and larger adult body size that could facilitate the successful establishment of invasive populations.

  8. Recent divergences and size decreases of eastern gorilla populations.

    PubMed

    Roy, Justin; Arandjelovic, Mimi; Bradley, Brenda J; Guschanski, Katerina; Stephens, Colleen R; Bucknell, Dan; Cirhuza, Henry; Kusamba, Chifundera; Kyungu, Jean Claude; Smith, Vince; Robbins, Martha M; Vigilant, Linda

    2014-11-01

    Compared with other African apes, eastern gorillas (Gorilla beringei) have been little studied genetically. We used analysis of autosomal DNA genotypes obtained from non-invasively collected faecal samples to estimate the evolutionary histories of the two extant mountain gorilla populations and the closely related eastern lowland gorillas. Our results suggest that eastern lowland gorillas and mountain gorillas split beginning some 10 000 years ago, followed 5000 years ago by the split of the two mountain gorilla populations of Bwindi Impenetrable National Park and the Virungas Massif. All three populations have decreased in effective population size, with particularly substantial 10-fold decreases for the mountain gorillas. These dynamics probably reflect responses to habitat changes resulting from climate fluctuations over the past 20 000 years as well as increasing human influence in this densely populated region in the last several thousand years.

  9. Overdominant alleles in a population of variable size.

    PubMed Central

    Slatkin, M; Muirhead, C A

    1999-01-01

    An approximate method is developed to predict the number of strongly overdominant alleles in a population of which the size varies with time. The approximation relies on the strong-selection weak-mutation (SSWM) method introduced by J. H. Gillespie and leads to a Markov chain model that describes the number of common alleles in the population. The parameters of the transition matrix of the Markov chain depend in a simple way on the population size. For a population of constant size, the Markov chain leads to results that are nearly the same as those of N. Takahata. The Markov chain allows the prediction of the numbers of common alleles during and after a population bottleneck and the numbers of alleles surviving from before a bottleneck. This method is also adapted to modeling the case in which there are two classes of alleles, with one class causing a reduction in fitness relative to the other class. Very slight selection against one class can strongly affect the relative frequencies of the two classes and the relative ages of alleles in each class. PMID:10353917

  10. Historical analysis of genetic variation reveals low effective population size in a northern pike (Esox lucius) population.

    PubMed

    Miller, L M; Kapuscinski, A R

    1997-11-01

    Effective population size (Ne) of a natural fish population was estimated from temporal changes in allele frequencies at seven microsatellite loci. Use of a historical collection of fish scales made it possible to increase the precision of estimates by increasing the time interval between samples and to use an equation developed for discrete generations without correcting for demographic parameters. Estimates of Ne for the time intervals 1961-1977 and 1977-1993 were 35 and 72, respectively. For the entire interval, 1961-1993, the estimate of Ne was 48 when based on a weighted mean derived from the above two estimates or 125 when calculated from 1961 and 1993 samples only. Corresponding ratios of effective size to adult census size ranged from 0.03 to 0.14. An Ne of 48 over a 32-year period would imply that this population lost as much as 8% of its heterozygosity in that time. Results suggest the potential for using genetic methods based on microsatellite loci data to compare historical trends in Ne with population dynamic parameters. Such comparisons will help to evaluate the relationship between genetic diversity and long-term persistence of natural populations.

  11. Historical Analysis of Genetic Variation Reveals Low Effective Population Size in a Northern Pike (Esox Lucius) Population

    PubMed Central

    Miller, L. M.; Kapuscinski, A. R.

    1997-01-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) of a natural fish population was estimated from temporal changes in allele frequencies at seven microsatellite loci. Use of a historical collection of fish scales made it possible to increase the precision of estimates by increasing the time interval between samples and to use an equation developed for discrete generations without correcting for demographic parameters. Estimates of N(e) for the time intervals 1961-1977 and 1977-1993 were 35 and 72, respectively. For the entire interval, 1961-1993, the estimate of N(e) was 48 when based on a weighted mean derived from the above two estimates or 125 when calculated from 1961 and 1993 samples only. Corresponding ratios of effective size to adult census size ranged from 0.03 to 0.14. An N(e) of 48 over a 32-year period would imply that this population lost as much as 8% of its heterozygosity in that time. Results suggest the potential for using genetic methods based on microsatellite loci data to compare historical trends in N(e) with population dynamic parameters. Such comparisons will help to evaluate the relationship between genetic diversity and long-term persistence of natural populations. PMID:9383067

  12. Critical mutation rate has an exponential dependence on population size in haploid and diploid populations.

    PubMed

    Aston, Elizabeth; Channon, Alastair; Day, Charles; Knight, Christopher G

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the exponential model has

  13. Size-specific sensitivity: Applying a new structured population model

    SciTech Connect

    Easterling, M.R.; Ellner, S.P.; Dixon, P.M.

    2000-03-01

    Matrix population models require the population to be divided into discrete stage classes. In many cases, especially when classes are defined by a continuous variable, such as length or mass, there are no natural breakpoints, and the division is artificial. The authors introduce the integral projection model, which eliminates the need for division into discrete classes, without requiring any additional biological assumptions. Like a traditional matrix model, the integral projection model provides estimates of the asymptotic growth rate, stable size distribution, reproductive values, and sensitivities of the growth rate to changes in vital rates. However, where the matrix model represents the size distributions, reproductive value, and sensitivities as step functions (constant within a stage class), the integral projection model yields smooth curves for each of these as a function of individual size. The authors describe a method for fitting the model to data, and they apply this method to data on an endangered plant species, northern monkshood (Aconitum noveboracense), with individuals classified by stem diameter. The matrix and integral models yield similar estimates of the asymptotic growth rate, but the reproductive values and sensitivities in the matrix model are sensitive to the choice of stage classes. The integral projection model avoids this problem and yields size-specific sensitivities that are not affected by stage duration. These general properties of the integral projection model will make it advantageous for other populations where there is no natural division of individuals into stage classes.

  14. Effects of body size and temperature on population growth.

    PubMed

    Savage, Van M; Gilloly, James F; Brown, James H; Charnov, Eric L

    2004-03-01

    For at least 200 years, since the time of Malthus, population growth has been recognized as providing a critical link between the performance of individual organisms and the ecology and evolution of species. We present a theory that shows how the intrinsic rate of exponential population growth, rmax, and the carrying capacity, K, depend on individual metabolic rate and resource supply rate. To do this, we construct equations for the metabolic rates of entire populations by summing over individuals, and then we combine these population-level equations with Malthusian growth. Thus, the theory makes explicit the relationship between rates of resource supply in the environment and rates of production of new biomass and individuals. These individual-level and population-level processes are inextricably linked because metabolism sets both the demand for environmental resources and the resource allocation to survival, growth, and reproduction. We use the theory to make explicit how and why rmax exhibits its characteristic dependence on body size and temperature. Data for aerobic eukaryotes, including algae, protists, insects, zooplankton, fishes, and mammals, support these predicted scalings for rmax. The metabolic flux of energy and materials also dictates that the carrying capacity or equilibrium density of populations should decrease with increasing body size and increasing temperature. Finally, we argue that body mass and body temperature, through their effects on metabolic rate, can explain most of the variation in fecundity and mortality rates. Data for marine fishes in the field support these predictions for instantaneous rates of mortality. This theory links the rates of metabolism and resource use of individuals to life-history attributes and population dynamics for a broad assortment of organisms, from unicellular organisms to mammals.

  15. Ochre star mortality during the 2014 wasting disease epizootic: role of population size structure and temperature

    PubMed Central

    Eisenlord, Morgan E.; Yoshioka, Reyn M.; Elliott, Joel; Maynard, Jeffrey; Fradkin, Steven; Turner, Margaret; Pyne, Katie; Rivlin, Natalie; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Harvell, C. Drew

    2016-01-01

    Over 20 species of asteroids were devastated by a sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epizootic, linked to a densovirus, from Mexico to Alaska in 2013 and 2014. For Pisaster ochraceus from the San Juan Islands, South Puget Sound and Washington outer coast, time-series monitoring showed rapid disease spread, high mortality rates in 2014, and continuing levels of wasting in the survivors in 2015. Peak prevalence of disease at 16 sites ranged to 100%, with an overall mean of 61%. Analysis of longitudinal data showed disease risk was correlated with both size and temperature and resulted in shifts in population size structure; adult populations fell to one quarter of pre-outbreak abundances. In laboratory experiments, time between development of disease signs and death was influenced by temperature in adults but not juveniles and adult mortality was 18% higher in the 19°C treatment compared to the lower temperature treatments. While larger ochre stars developed disease signs sooner than juveniles, diseased juveniles died more quickly than diseased adults. Unusual 2–3°C warm temperature anomalies were coincident with the summer 2014 mortalities. We suggest these warm waters could have increased the disease progression and mortality rates of SSWD in Washington State. PMID:26880844

  16. Ochre star mortality during the 2014 wasting disease epizootic: role of population size structure and temperature.

    PubMed

    Eisenlord, Morgan E; Groner, Maya L; Yoshioka, Reyn M; Elliott, Joel; Maynard, Jeffrey; Fradkin, Steven; Turner, Margaret; Pyne, Katie; Rivlin, Natalie; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Harvell, C Drew

    2016-03-05

    Over 20 species of asteroids were devastated by a sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epizootic, linked to a densovirus, from Mexico to Alaska in 2013 and 2014. For Pisaster ochraceus from the San Juan Islands, South Puget Sound and Washington outer coast, time-series monitoring showed rapid disease spread, high mortality rates in 2014, and continuing levels of wasting in the survivors in 2015. Peak prevalence of disease at 16 sites ranged to 100%, with an overall mean of 61%. Analysis of longitudinal data showed disease risk was correlated with both size and temperature and resulted in shifts in population size structure; adult populations fell to one quarter of pre-outbreak abundances. In laboratory experiments, time between development of disease signs and death was influenced by temperature in adults but not juveniles and adult mortality was 18% higher in the 19 °C treatment compared to the lower temperature treatments. While larger ochre stars developed disease signs sooner than juveniles, diseased juveniles died more quickly than diseased adults. Unusual 2-3 °C warm temperature anomalies were coincident with the summer 2014 mortalities. We suggest these warm waters could have increased the disease progression and mortality rates of SSWD in Washington State.

  17. Association of Overweight with Food Portion Size among Adults of São Paulo – Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Mendes, Aline; Crispim, Sandra Patricia; Marchioni, Dirce Maria; Fisberg, Regina Mara

    2016-01-01

    Background Although studies show that portion size affects energy intake, few have demonstrated a link between portion size and weight status, especially in free-living populations. The objective of the present study was to assess the relationship between food portion sizes and overweight in a representative population of adults of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods Cross-sectional population-based study with 1005 adults from São Paulo, Brazil. Dietary data were obtained from two 24-hour recalls. Reported foods were classified into groups and energy contribution, prevalence of consumers and portion sizes were calculated. Individuals were classified according to BMI in with and without overweight. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between food portion sizes and being overweight. Results The most consumed food groups were: beans, breads/rolls, coffee/tea, milk, rice, and sugar. Rice, red meat, breads/rolls, and white meat were the groups with the highest percentage of contribution to total energy intake. Butter/margarine, toasts/biscuits, sugar, and cakes were the groups with the highest energy density. After adjustment for confounding variables, overweight was associated with larger portions of pizza (OR = 1.052; p = 0.048), red meat (OR = 1.025; p = 0.043), rice (OR = 1.033; p<0.001), salted snacks (OR = 1.078; p = 0.022), and soft drinks (OR = 1.016; p = 0.007). Conclusions Larger portions of few food groups with different energy densities were associated with being overweight, suggesting that overweight may be related to the consumption of larger portion sizes of a series of food groups, not a food group alone. Additionally, we highlight the importance of considering underreporting as a confounding factor in these associations. PMID:27706222

  18. Determining population size of territorial red-winged blackbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Albers, P.H.

    1976-01-01

    Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

  19. Interference versus exploitative competition in the regulation of size-structured populations.

    PubMed

    Le Bourlot, Vincent; Tully, Thomas; Claessen, David

    2014-11-01

    Competition is a major regulatory factor in population and community dynamics. Its effects can be either direct in interference competition or indirect in exploitative competition. The impact of exploitative competition on population dynamics has been extensively studied from empirical and theoretical points of view, but the consequences of interference competition remain poorly understood. Here we study the effect of different levels of intraspecific interference competition on the dynamics of a size-structured population. We study a physiologically structured population model accounting for direct individual interactions, allowing for a gradient from exploitative competition to interference competition. We parameterize our model with data on experimental populations of the collembolan Folsomia candida. Our model predicts contrasting dynamics, depending on the level of interference competition. With low interference, our model predicts juvenile-driven generation cycles, but interference competition tends to dampen these cycles. With intermediate interference, giant individuals emerge and start dominating the population. Finally, strong interference competition causes a novel kind of adult-driven generation cycles referred to as interference-induced cycles. Our results shed new light on the interpretation of the size-structured dynamics of natural and experimental populations.

  20. Naturalization of plant populations: the role of cultivation and population size and density.

    PubMed

    Minton, Mark S; Mack, Richard N

    2010-10-01

    Field experimentation is required to assess the effects of environmental stochasticity on small immigrant plant populations-a widely understood but largely unexplored aspect of predicting any species' likelihood of naturalization and potential invasion. Cultivation can mitigate this stochasticity, although the outcome for a population under cultivation nevertheless varies enormously from extinction to persistence. Using factorial experiments, we investigated the effects of population size, density, and cultivation (irrigation) on the fate of founder populations for four alien species with different life history characteristics (Echinochloa frumentacea, Fagopyrum esculentum, Helianthus annuus, and Trifolium incarnatum) in eastern Washington, USA. The fate of founder populations was highly variable within and among the 3 years of experimentation and illustrates the often precarious environment encountered by plant immigrants. Larger founder populations produced more seeds (P < 0.001); the role of founder population size, however, differed among years. Irrigation resulted in higher percent survival (P < 0.001) and correspondingly larger net reproductive rate (R(0); P < 0.001). But the minimum level of irrigation for establishment, R(0) > 1, differed among years and species. Sowing density did not affect the likelihood of establishment for any species. Our results underscore the importance of environmental stochasticity in determining the fate of founder populations and the potential of cultivation and large population size in countering the long odds against naturalization. Any implementation of often proposed post-immigration field trials to assess the risk of an alien species becoming naturalized, a requisite step toward invasion, will need to assess different sizes of founder populations and the extent and character of cultivation (intentional or unintentional) that the immigrants might receive.

  1. A Re-Evaluation of the Size of the White Shark (Carcharodon carcharias) Population off California, USA

    PubMed Central

    Burgess, George H.; Bruce, Barry D.; Cailliet, Gregor M.; Goldman, Kenneth J.; Grubbs, R. Dean; Lowe, Christopher G.; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Mollet, Henry F.; Weng, Kevin C.; O'Sullivan, John B.

    2014-01-01

    White sharks are highly migratory and segregate by sex, age and size. Unlike marine mammals, they neither surface to breathe nor frequent haul-out sites, hindering generation of abundance data required to estimate population size. A recent tag-recapture study used photographic identifications of white sharks at two aggregation sites to estimate abundance in “central California” at 219 mature and sub-adult individuals. They concluded this represented approximately one-half of the total abundance of mature and sub-adult sharks in the entire eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP). This low estimate generated great concern within the conservation community, prompting petitions for governmental endangered species designations. We critically examine that study and find violations of model assumptions that, when considered in total, lead to population underestimates. We also use a Bayesian mixture model to demonstrate that the inclusion of transient sharks, characteristic of white shark aggregation sites, would substantially increase abundance estimates for the adults and sub-adults in the surveyed sub-population. Using a dataset obtained from the same sampling locations and widely accepted demographic methodology, our analysis indicates a minimum all-life stages population size of >2000 individuals in the California subpopulation is required to account for the number and size range of individual sharks observed at the two sampled sites. Even accounting for methodological and conceptual biases, an extrapolation of these data to estimate the white shark population size throughout the ENP is inappropriate. The true ENP white shark population size is likely several-fold greater as both our study and the original published estimate exclude non-aggregating sharks and those that independently aggregate at other important ENP sites. Accurately estimating the central California and ENP white shark population size requires methodologies that account for biases introduced by

  2. A re-evaluation of the size of the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) population off California, USA.

    PubMed

    Burgess, George H; Bruce, Barry D; Cailliet, Gregor M; Goldman, Kenneth J; Grubbs, R Dean; Lowe, Christopher G; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mollet, Henry F; Weng, Kevin C; O'Sullivan, John B

    2014-01-01

    White sharks are highly migratory and segregate by sex, age and size. Unlike marine mammals, they neither surface to breathe nor frequent haul-out sites, hindering generation of abundance data required to estimate population size. A recent tag-recapture study used photographic identifications of white sharks at two aggregation sites to estimate abundance in "central California" at 219 mature and sub-adult individuals. They concluded this represented approximately one-half of the total abundance of mature and sub-adult sharks in the entire eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP). This low estimate generated great concern within the conservation community, prompting petitions for governmental endangered species designations. We critically examine that study and find violations of model assumptions that, when considered in total, lead to population underestimates. We also use a Bayesian mixture model to demonstrate that the inclusion of transient sharks, characteristic of white shark aggregation sites, would substantially increase abundance estimates for the adults and sub-adults in the surveyed sub-population. Using a dataset obtained from the same sampling locations and widely accepted demographic methodology, our analysis indicates a minimum all-life stages population size of >2000 individuals in the California subpopulation is required to account for the number and size range of individual sharks observed at the two sampled sites. Even accounting for methodological and conceptual biases, an extrapolation of these data to estimate the white shark population size throughout the ENP is inappropriate. The true ENP white shark population size is likely several-fold greater as both our study and the original published estimate exclude non-aggregating sharks and those that independently aggregate at other important ENP sites. Accurately estimating the central California and ENP white shark population size requires methodologies that account for biases introduced by sampling a

  3. Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tbilisi, Georgia; Multiple Methods and Triangulation of Findings

    PubMed Central

    Sulaberidze, Lela; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Chikovani, Ivdity; Shengelia, Natia; Tsereteli, Nino; Gotsadze, George

    2016-01-01

    Introduction An accurate estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) is critical to the success of HIV program planning and to monitoring of the response to epidemic as a whole, but is quite often missing. In this study, our aim was to estimate the population size of MSM in Tbilisi, Georgia and compare it with other estimates in the region. Methods In the absence of a gold standard for estimating the population size of MSM, this study reports a range of methods, including network scale-up, mobile/web apps multiplier, service and unique object multiplier, network-based capture-recapture, Handcock RDS-based and Wisdom of Crowds methods. To apply all these methods, two surveys were conducted: first, a household survey among 1,015 adults from the general population, and second, a respondent driven sample of 210 MSM. We also conducted a literature review of MSM size estimation in Eastern European and Central Asian countries. Results The median population size of MSM generated from all previously mentioned methods was estimated to be 5,100 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3,243 ~ 9,088). This corresponds to 1.42% (95%CI: 0.9% ~ 2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi. Conclusion Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.42% (95%CI: 0.9% ~ 2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi) fall within ranges reported in other Eastern European and Central Asian countries. These estimates can provide valuable information for country level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe, that our results will narrow the gap in data availability on the estimates of the population size of MSM in the region. PMID:26828366

  4. Effect of population structure and size on aggregation behavior of Cimex lectularius (Hemiptera: Cimicidae).

    PubMed

    Pfiester, Margie; Koehler, Philip G; Pereira, Roberto M

    2009-09-01

    The bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), occurs in aggregations until the conditions are no longer beneficial, leading to dispersal. Active and passive bed bug dispersal causes migrations from main aggregations either within a room, from room to room within a building, or from building to building. Because bed bug movement is an important factor in the spread of infestations, we wanted to determine how population structure and size affect bed bug aggregations. Engorged bed bugs were placed in glass petri dish arenas at varying densities, sex ratios, and population compositions. Nymphs had a high tendency to aggregate, varying between 94 and 98%, and therefore were not the likely dispersal stage of the bed bug. At densities of 10 and 40 adults at a 1:1 sex ratio, there were significantly more lone females than lone males. When the population composition was varied, the percentage of lone females was significantly higher than that of males and nymphs at population compositions of 40 and 80% adults. When the sex ratio of adults was varied, there were significantly more lone females than males in arenas with 20, 50, and 80% males. Females, being found away from aggregations significantly more often than any other life stage, are potentially the dispersal stage of the bed bug. Active female dispersal away from main aggregations can potentially lead to treatment failures and should be taken into account when using control methods.

  5. Description and validation of a method for simultaneous estimation of effective population size and mutation rate from human population data.

    PubMed Central

    Chakraborty, R; Neel, J V

    1989-01-01

    A method is presented for utilizing population data on electrophoretic variants of proteins to estimate simultaneously the effective sizes (Ne values) of the populations in question and the rate of mutation resulting in electromorphs at the loci whose products were surveyed. The method is applied to data from 12 relatively unacculturated Amerindian tribes for whom census data and independent estimates of the number of different electrophoretic variants at 27 loci are available. Because of tribal demographic structure, Ne should be less than the current number of reproductive-aged adults. In fact, it is substantially greater for 7 tribes, most likely due to intertribal migration and a recent decrease in tribal size. Estimates of locus mutation rates for the 27 loci vary by more than a factor of 20, with an average of 1.1 x 10(-5) per locus per generation. This latter estimate is in satisfactory agreement with the results of other indirect approaches to the estimation of mutation rates in these tribes but about two times higher than the results of direct estimates based on these same loci in studies on civilized populations. This discrepancy could be due to the above-hypothesized migration and to decreases in tribal size. PMID:2594777

  6. Size matters: How population size influences genotype–phenotype association studies in anonymized data

    PubMed Central

    Denny, Joshua C.; Haines, Jonathan L.; Roden, Dan M.; Malin, Bradley A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Electronic medical records (EMRs) data is increasingly incorporated into genome-phenome association studies. Investigators hope to share data, but there are concerns it may be “re-identified” through the exploitation of various features, such as combinations of standardized clinical codes. Formal anonymization algorithms (e.g., k-anonymization) can prevent such violations, but prior studies suggest that the size of the population available for anonymization may influence the utility of the resulting data. We systematically investigate this issue using a large-scale biorepository and EMR system through which we evaluate the ability of researchers to learn from anonymized data for genome- phenome association studies under various conditions. Methods We use a k-anonymization strategy to simulate a data protection process (on data sets containing clinical codes) for resources of similar size to those found at nine academic medical institutions within the United States. Following the protection process, we replicate an existing genome-phenome association study and compare the discoveries using the protected data and the original data through the correlation (r2) of the p-values of association significance. Results Our investigation shows that anonymizing an entire dataset with respect to the population from which it is derived yields significantly more utility than small study-specific datasets anonymized unto themselves. When evaluated using the correlation of genome-phenome association strengths on anonymized data versus original data, all nine simulated sites, results from largest-scale anonymizations (population ∼ 100;000) retained better utility to those on smaller sizes (population ∼ 6000—75;000). We observed a general trend of increasing r2 for larger data set sizes: r2 = 0.9481 for small-sized datasets, r2 = 0.9493 for moderately-sized datasets, r2 = 0.9934 for large-sized datasets. Conclusions This research implies that regardless of the

  7. Bacterial finite-size effects for population expansion under flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toschi, Federico; Tesser, Francesca; Zeegers, Jos C. H.; Clercx, Herman J. H.; Brunsveld, Luc

    2016-11-01

    For organisms living in a liquid ecosystem, flow and flow gradients have a dual role as they transport nutrient while, at the same time, dispersing the individuals. In absence of flow and under homogeneous conditions, the growth of a population towards an empty region is usually described by a reaction-diffusion equation. The effect of fluid flow is not yet well understood and the interplay between transport of individuals and growth opens a wide scenario of possible behaviors. In this work, we study experimentally the dynamics of non-motile E. coli bacteria colonies spreading inside rectangular channels, in PDMS microfluidic devices. By use of a fluorescent microscope we analyze the dynamics of the population density subjected to different co- and counter-flow conditions and shear rates. A simple model incorporating growth, dispersion and drift of finite size beads is able to explain the experimental findings. This indicates that models based on the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscounov equation (FKPP) may have to be supplemented with bacterial finite-size effects in order to be able to accurately reproduce experimental results for population spatial growth.

  8. Evolution of increased adult longevity in Drosophila melanogaster populations selected for adaptation to larval crowding.

    PubMed

    Shenoi, V N; Ali, S Z; Prasad, N G

    2016-02-01

    In holometabolous animals such as Drosophila melanogaster, larval crowding can affect a wide range of larval and adult traits. Adults emerging from high larval density cultures have smaller body size and increased mean life span compared to flies emerging from low larval density cultures. Therefore, adaptation to larval crowding could potentially affect adult longevity as a correlated response. We addressed this issue by studying a set of large, outbred populations of D. melanogaster, experimentally evolved for adaptation to larval crowding for 83 generations. We assayed longevity of adult flies from both selected (MCUs) and control populations (MBs) after growing them at different larval densities. We found that MCUs have evolved increased mean longevity compared to MBs at all larval densities. The interaction between selection regime and larval density was not significant, indicating that the density dependence of mean longevity had not evolved in the MCU populations. The increase in longevity in MCUs can be partially attributed to their lower rates of ageing. It is also noteworthy that reaction norm of dry body weight, a trait probably under direct selection in our populations, has indeed evolved in MCU populations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of the evolution of adult longevity as a correlated response of adaptation to larval crowding.

  9. Physiological responses to increased brood size and ectoparasite infestation: Adult great tits favour self-maintenance.

    PubMed

    Wegmann, Michele; Voegeli, Beatrice; Richner, Heinz

    2015-03-15

    Different types of stressors trigger responses of different physiological systems, and these responses may contribute differentially to the maintenance of homeostasis, to trade-offs and the evolution of life-history traits. To manipulate two common stressors during reproduction, we infested half of the nests in a naturally breeding great tit population with ectoparasites and simultaneously manipulated brood size, using a 2×2 experimental design. Parents in this model species commonly compensate for ectoparasites by an increase in food provisioning. We assessed parental responses to these concurrent stressors by measuring several physiological stress parameters such as changes in metabolic rate, oxidative stress and expression of heat-shock proteins (Hsp), and explored how these stressors affect the trade-off between self-maintenance and reproduction. Neither flea infestation nor brood size manipulation affected adult metabolic rate, oxidative damage or Hsp levels. Furthermore, we found no interactive effect of the two treatments on adults. However, nestlings in infested nests had lower body mass and lower survival. Nestlings in enlarged broods were lighter and had lower survival, although parents of enlarged broods increased food provisioning rate. The findings suggest that adults favour maintenance of cellular homeostasis, and physiological equilibrium over current reproduction, and that the costs induced by both stressors, flea infestation and increased brood size, are carried by the offspring. It emphasizes the importance of self-maintenance over reproduction in life-history decisions, and more generally the need of including physiological traits for understanding the evolution of life-histories.

  10. Population size does not explain past changes in cultural complexity

    PubMed Central

    Vaesen, Krist; Collard, Mark; Cosgrove, Richard; Roebroeks, Wil

    2016-01-01

    Demography is increasingly being invoked to account for features of the archaeological record, such as the technological conservatism of the Lower and Middle Pleistocene, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition, and cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania. Such explanations are commonly justified in relation to population dynamic models developed by Henrich [Henrich J (2004) Am Antiq 69:197–214] and Powell et al. [Powell A, et al. (2009) Science 324(5932):1298–1301], which appear to demonstrate that population size is the crucial determinant of cultural complexity. Here, we show that these models fail in two important respects. First, they only support a relationship between demography and culture in implausible conditions. Second, their predictions conflict with the available archaeological and ethnographic evidence. We conclude that new theoretical and empirical research is required to identify the factors that drove the changes in cultural complexity that are documented by the archaeological record. PMID:27044082

  11. Asymmetric competition causes multimodal size distributions in spatially structured populations.

    PubMed

    Velázquez, Jorge; Allen, Robert B; Coomes, David A; Eichhorn, Markus P

    2016-01-27

    Plant sizes within populations often exhibit multimodal distributions, even when all individuals are the same age and have experienced identical conditions. To establish the causes of this, we created an individual-based model simulating the growth of trees in a spatially explicit framework, which was parametrized using data from a long-term study of forest stands in New Zealand. First, we demonstrate that asymmetric resource competition is a necessary condition for the formation of multimodal size distributions within cohorts. By contrast, the legacy of small-scale clustering during recruitment is transient and quickly overwhelmed by density-dependent mortality. Complex multi-layered size distributions are generated when established individuals are restricted in the spatial domain within which they can capture resources. The number of modes reveals the effective number of direct competitors, while the separation and spread of modes are influenced by distances among established individuals. Asymmetric competition within local neighbourhoods can therefore generate a range of complex size distributions within even-aged cohorts.

  12. Asymmetric competition causes multimodal size distributions in spatially structured populations

    PubMed Central

    Velázquez, Jorge; Allen, Robert B.; Coomes, David A.; Eichhorn, Markus P.

    2016-01-01

    Plant sizes within populations often exhibit multimodal distributions, even when all individuals are the same age and have experienced identical conditions. To establish the causes of this, we created an individual-based model simulating the growth of trees in a spatially explicit framework, which was parametrized using data from a long-term study of forest stands in New Zealand. First, we demonstrate that asymmetric resource competition is a necessary condition for the formation of multimodal size distributions within cohorts. By contrast, the legacy of small-scale clustering during recruitment is transient and quickly overwhelmed by density-dependent mortality. Complex multi-layered size distributions are generated when established individuals are restricted in the spatial domain within which they can capture resources. The number of modes reveals the effective number of direct competitors, while the separation and spread of modes are influenced by distances among established individuals. Asymmetric competition within local neighbourhoods can therefore generate a range of complex size distributions within even-aged cohorts. PMID:26817778

  13. Population reference range for developmental lumbar spinal canal size

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Junbin; Law, Sheung-Wai; Xiao, Fan; Leung, Jason Chi Shun; Wang, Defeng; Shi, Lin

    2016-01-01

    Background Considerable variability exists in normal developmental lumbar spinal canal size. This impacts the likelihood of neural compromise. Spinal canal development is complete by 17 years. As diseases incurred thereafter do not knowingly affect the developmental size of the spinal canal, it is reasonable to use a selected population undergoing abdominopelvic computed tomography (CT) examination to determine developmental lumbar spinal canal size. Methods Study approval was granted by the Clinical Research Ethics Committee. Between Feb 2014 and Jan 2015, mid-vertebral spinal canal cross-sectional area (CSA), depth, width, and vertebral body CSA at each level from L1–L5 was measured, using a semi-automated computerized method in 1,080 ambulatory patients (540 males, 540 females, mean age, 50.5±17 years). Patient height and weight was measured. Results A reference range for developmental lumbar spinal canal dimensions was developed at each lumbar level for each sex. There was a 34% variation in spinal canal CSA between smallest and largest quartiles. Developmental spinal canal CSA and depth were consistently smallest at L3, enlarging cranially and caudally. Taller people had slightly larger lumbar spinal canals (P<0.0001). Males had larger spinal canal CSAs than females though relative to vertebral body CSA, spinal canal CSA was larger in females. There was no change in spinal canal CSA with age, weight or BMI (P<0.05). Conclusions A population reference range for developmental lumbar spinal canal size was developed. This allows one to objectively determine the degree of developmental spinal canal stenosis present on an individual patient basis. PMID:28090445

  14. Effective population size and inbreeding depression on litter size in rabbits. A case study.

    PubMed

    Ragab, M; Sánchez, J P; Baselga, M

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to use demographic and litter size data on four Spanish maternal lines of rabbits (A, V, H and LP), as a case study, in order to: (i) estimate the effective population size of the lines, as a measure of the rate of increase of inbreeding, and (ii) study whether the inbreeding effect on litter size traits depends on the pattern of its accumulation over time. The lines are being selected for litter size at weaning and are kept closed at the same selection nucleus under the same selection and management programme. The study considered 47,794 l and a pedigree of 14,622 animals. Some practices in mating and selection management allow an increase of the inbreeding coefficient lower than 0.01 per generation in these lines of around 25 males and 125 females. Their effective population size (Ne) was around 57.3, showing that the effect of selection, increasing the inbreeding, was counterbalanced by the management practices, intended to reduce the rate of inbreeding increase. The inbreeding of each individual was broken down into three components: old, intermediate and new inbreeding. The coefficients of regression of the old, intermediate and new inbreeding on total born (TB), number born alive (NBA) and number weaned (NW) per litter showed a decreasing trend from positive to negative values. Regression coefficients significantly different from zero were those for the old inbreeding on TB (6.79 ± 2.37) and NBA (5.92 ± 2.37). The contrast between the coefficients of regression between the old and new inbreeding were significant for the three litter size traits: 7.57 ± 1.72 for TB; 6.66 ± 1.73 for NBA and 5.13 ± 1.67 for NW. These results have been interpreted as the combined action of purging unfavourable genes and artificial selection favoured by the inbreeding throughout the generations of selection.

  15. Estimating the number of sex workers in South Africa: rapid population size estimation.

    PubMed

    Konstant, Tracey L; Rangasami, Jerushah; Stacey, Maria J; Stewart, Michelle L; Nogoduka, Coceka

    2015-02-01

    Although recognized as a vulnerable population, there is no national population size estimate for sex workers in South Africa. A rapid sex worker enumeration exercise was undertaken in twelve locations across the country based on principles of participatory mapping and Wisdom of the Crowd. Sites with a range of characteristics were selected, focusing on level of urbanisation, trucking, mining and borders. At each site, sex worker focus groups mapped local hotspots. Interviews with sex workers at identified hotspots were used to estimate the numbers and genders of sex workers working in each. Estimates provided in the literature were combined with enumeration exercise results to define assumptions that could be applied to a national extrapolation. A working estimate was reached of between 131,000 and 182,000 sex worker in South Africa, or between 0.76 and 1 % of the adult female population. The success of the exercise depended on integral involvement of sex worker peer educators and strong ethical considerations.

  16. Early detection of population declines: high power of genetic monitoring using effective population size estimators

    PubMed Central

    Antao, Tiago; Pérez-Figueroa, Andrés; Luikart, Gordon

    2011-01-01

    Early detection of population declines is essential to prevent extinctions and to ensure sustainable harvest. We evaluated the performance of two Ne estimators to detect population declines: the two-sample temporal method and a one-sample method based on linkage disequilibrium (LD). We used simulated data representing a wide range of population sizes, sample sizes and number of loci. Both methods usually detect a population decline only one generation after it occurs if Ne drops to less than approximately 100, and 40 microsatellite loci and 50 individuals are sampled. However, the LD method often out performed the temporal method by allowing earlier detection of less severe population declines (Ne approximately 200). Power for early detection increased more rapidly with the number of individuals sampled than with the number of loci genotyped, primarily for the LD method. The number of samples available is therefore an important criterion when choosing between the LD and temporal methods. We provide guidelines regarding design of studies targeted at monitoring for population declines. We also report that 40 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers give slightly lower precision than 10 microsatellite markers. Our results suggest that conservation management and monitoring strategies can reliably use genetic based methods for early detection of population declines. PMID:25567959

  17. Assessment of crown angulations, crown inclinations, and tooth size discrepancies in a South Indian population

    PubMed Central

    Doodamani, Geeta Maruti; Khala, Anmol S; Manohar, Mala; Umashankar

    2011-01-01

    Aims and Objective: The aim of this study was to assess crown angulations, crown inclinations, and tooth size discrepancy in a sample population from Davangere, South India. Materials and Methods: One hundred adults (50 male and 50 female) of age 18–30 years, with Angle's class I ideal occlusion and balanced profiles, were selected for the study. Study models were prepared and crown angulations and crown inclinations were measured using a customized protractor device. Bolton's analysis was used to measure the tooth size discrepancies. Results: Maxillary and mandibular teeth had less crown angulations. Maxillary and mandibular incisors and maxillary molars showed increased crown inclinations, whereas mandibular molars and premolars had less crown inclinations than the original Andrews sample. The mean maxillary and mandibular tooth size ratios, overall and anterior, were similar to Bolton's ratios. Conclusions: The finding of this study indicates that there are possible racial and ethnic factors contributing to variations in crown angulations and crown inclinations. PMID:22090760

  18. Increasing the Success of Adults from Diverse Populations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sheckley, Barry G.; Keeton, Morris T.

    1995-01-01

    The following methods can increase the academic success of adults from diverse populations: focus on how educational circumstances are experienced by individuals, not broad groups; maximize time spent on tasks related to course/degree requirements; and reduce student costs in terms of time, money, frustration, and stress. (SK)

  19. Estimated Full Scale IQ in an Adult Heroin Addict Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chastain, Robert L.; And Others

    The research concerning intellectual functioning in addict populations has not addressed basic questions concerning why and how intelligence quotients (IQ) might be related to drug addiction. A study was undertaken to estimate intellectual functioning based upon a demographic profile for Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised (WAIS-R) Full…

  20. Development of an online database of typical food portion sizes in Irish population groups.

    PubMed

    Lyons, Jacqueline; Walton, Janette; Flynn, Albert

    2013-01-01

    The Irish Food Portion Sizes Database (available at www.iuna.net) describes typical portion weights for an extensive range of foods and beverages for Irish children, adolescents and adults. The present paper describes the methodologies used to develop the database and some key characteristics of the portion weight data contained therein. The data are derived from three large, cross-sectional food consumption surveys carried out in Ireland over the last decade: the National Children's Food Survey (2003-2004), National Teens' Food Survey (2005-2006) and National Adult Nutrition Survey (2008-2010). Median, 25th and 75th percentile portion weights are described for a total of 545 items across the three survey groups, split by age group or sex as appropriate. The typical (median) portion weights reported for adolescents and adults are similar for many foods, while those reported for children are notably smaller. Adolescent and adult males generally consume larger portions than their female counterparts, though similar portion weights may be consumed where foods are packaged in unit amounts (for example, pots of yoghurt). The inclusion of energy under-reporters makes little difference to the estimation of typical portion weights in adults. The data have wide-ranging applications in dietary assessment and food labelling, and will serve as a useful reference against which to compare future portion size data from the Irish population. The present paper provides a useful context for researchers and others wishing to use the Irish Food Portion Sizes Database, and may guide researchers in other countries in establishing similar databases of their own.

  1. Demographic and genetic estimates of effective population size (Ne) reveals genetic compensation in steelhead trout.

    PubMed

    Ardren, William R; Kapuscinski, Anne R

    2003-01-01

    Estimates of effective population size (Ne) are required to predict the impacts of genetic drift and inbreeding on the evolutionary dynamics of populations. How the ratio of Ne to the number of sexually mature adults (N) varies in natural vertebrate populations has not been addressed. We examined the sensitivity of Ne/N to fluctuations of N and determined the major variables responsible for changing the ratio over a period of 17 years in a population of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from Washington State. Demographic and genetic methods were used to estimate Ne. Genetic estimates of Ne were gained via temporal and linkage disequilibrium methods using data from eight microsatellite loci. DNA for genetic analysis was amplified from archived smolt scales. The Ne/N from 1977 to 1994, estimated using the temporal method, was 0.73 and the comprehensive demographic estimate of Ne/N over the same time period was 0.53. Demographic estimates of Ne indicated that variance in reproductive success had the most substantial impact on reducing Ne in this population, followed by fluctuations in population size. We found increased Ne/N ratios at low N, which we identified as genetic compensation. Combining the information from the demographic and genetic methods of estimating Ne allowed us to determine that a reduction in variance in reproductive success must be responsible for this compensation effect. Understanding genetic compensation in natural populations will be valuable for predicting the effects of changes in N (i.e. periods of high population density and bottlenecks) on the fitness and genetic variation of natural populations.

  2. Migratory divides and their consequences for dispersal, population size and parasite-host interactions.

    PubMed

    Møller, A P; Garamszegi, L Z; Peralta-Sánchez, J M; Soler, J J

    2011-08-01

    Populations of migratory birds differ in their direction of migration with neighbouring populations often migrating in divergent directions separated by migratory divides. A total of 26% of 103 passerine bird species in Europe had migratory divides that were located disproportionately often along a longitudinal gradient in Central Europe, consistent with the assumption of a Quaternary glacial origin of such divides in the Iberian and Balkan peninsulas followed by recolonization. Given that studies have shown significant genetic differentiation and reduced gene flow across migratory divides, we hypothesized that an absence of migratory divides would result in elevated rates of gene flow and hence a reduced level of local adaptation. In a comparative study, species with migratory divides had larger population sizes and population densities and longer dispersal distances than species without migratory divides. Species with migratory divides tended to be habitat generalists. Bird species with migratory divides had higher richness of blood parasites and higher growth rates of Staphylococcus on their eggs during the incubation period. There was weaker cell-mediated immunity in adults and stronger cell lysis in species with migratory divides. These findings may suggest that migratory divides constitute barriers to dispersal with consequences for ecology and evolution of distributions, population sizes, habitats and parasite-host interactions. They also suggest that migratory divides may play a role in local adaptation in host-parasite interactions.

  3. Genotypic structure of a Drosophila population for adult locomotor activity

    SciTech Connect

    Grechanyi, G.V.; Korzun, V.M.

    1995-01-01

    Analysis of the variation of adult locomotor activity in four samples taken at different times from a natural population of Drosophila melanogaster showed that the total variation of this trait is relatively stable in time and has a substantial genetic component. Genotypic structure of the population for locomotor activity is characterized by the presence of large groups of genotypes with high and low values of this trait. A possible explanation for the presence of such groups in a population is cyclic density-dependent selection.

  4. Variability levels, population size and structure of American and European Drosophila montana populations.

    PubMed

    Vieira, J; Hoikkala, A

    2001-04-01

    The level and patterns of nucleotide diversity have been characterized for two X-linked loci, fused (fu; a region of 2362 bp) and suppressor of sable (su(s); a region of 413 bp), in one European and one American D. montana population. Sequence variation at these loci shows that the two populations are divergent, although they may not be completely isolated. Data on the level of silent site variability at su(s) (1.1% and 0.5% for the European and American populations, respectively) suggest that the effective population sizes of the two populations may be similar. At the fused locus, one European sequence was highly divergent and may have resulted from gene conversion, and was excluded from the analysis. With this sequence removed, the level of silent site variability was significantly lower in the European population (0.28%) than in the American population (2.3%), which suggests a selective sweep at or near fu in the former population.

  5. Population size and winter distribution of eastern American oystercatchers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, S.C.; Schulte, Shiloh A.; Harrington, B.; Winn, Brad; Bart, J.; Howe, M.

    2005-01-01

    Conservation of the eastern subspecies of the American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus palliatus) is a high priority in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan, but previous population estimates were unreliable, information on distribution and habitat associations during winter was incomplete, and methods for long-term monitoring had not been developed prior to this survey. We completed the aerial survey proposed in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan to determine population size, winter distribution, and habitat associations. We conducted coastal aerial surveys from New Jersey to Texas during November 2002 to February 2003. This area comprised the entire wintering range of the eastern American oystercatcher within the United States. Surveys covered all suitable habitat in the United States for the subspecies, partitioned into 3 survey strata: known roost sites, high-use habitat, and inter-coastal tidal habitat. We determined known roost sites from extensive consultation with biologists and local experts in each state. High-use habitat included sand islands, sand spits at inlets, shell rakes, and oyster reefs. Partner organizations conducted ground counts in most states. We used high resolution still photography to determine detection rates for estimates of the number of birds in particular flocks, and we used ground counts to determine detection rates of flocks. Using a combination of ground and aerial counts, we estimated the population of eastern American oystercatchers to be 10,971 +/- 298. Aerial surveys can serve an important management function for shorebirds and possibly other coastal waterbirds by providing population status and trend information across a wide geographic scale.

  6. Population genomics of eusocial insects: the costs of a vertebrate-like effective population size.

    PubMed

    Romiguier, J; Lourenco, J; Gayral, P; Faivre, N; Weinert, L A; Ravel, S; Ballenghien, M; Cahais, V; Bernard, A; Loire, E; Keller, L; Galtier, N

    2014-03-01

    The evolution of reproductive division of labour and social life in social insects has lead to the emergence of several life-history traits and adaptations typical of larger organisms: social insect colonies can reach masses of several kilograms, they start reproducing only when they are several years old, and can live for decades. These features and the monopolization of reproduction by only one or few individuals in a colony should affect molecular evolution by reducing the effective population size. We tested this prediction by analysing genome-wide patterns of coding sequence polymorphism and divergence in eusocial vs. noneusocial insects based on newly generated RNA-seq data. We report very low amounts of genetic polymorphism and an elevated ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous changes – a marker of the effective population size – in four distinct species of eusocial insects, which were more similar to vertebrates than to solitary insects regarding molecular evolutionary processes. Moreover, the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions was positively correlated with the level of social complexity across ant species. These results are fully consistent with the hypothesis of a reduced effective population size and an increased genetic load in eusocial insects, indicating that the evolution of social life has important consequences at both the genomic and population levels.

  7. Genome-wide estimates of coancestry, inbreeding and effective population size in the Spanish Holstein population.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Ramilo, Silvia Teresa; Fernández, Jesús; Toro, Miguel Angel; Hernández, Delfino; Villanueva, Beatriz

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of effective population size in the Holstein cattle breed have usually been low despite the large number of animals that constitute this breed. Effective population size is inversely related to the rates at which coancestry and inbreeding increase and these rates have been high as a consequence of intense and accurate selection. Traditionally, coancestry and inbreeding coefficients have been calculated from pedigree data. However, the development of genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms has increased the interest of calculating these coefficients from molecular data in order to improve their accuracy. In this study, genomic estimates of coancestry, inbreeding and effective population size were obtained in the Spanish Holstein population and then compared with pedigree-based estimates. A total of 11,135 animals genotyped with the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip were available for the study. After applying filtering criteria, the final genomic dataset included 36,693 autosomal SNPs and 10,569 animals. Pedigree data from those genotyped animals included 31,203 animals. These individuals represented only the last five generations in order to homogenise the amount of pedigree information across animals. Genomic estimates of coancestry and inbreeding were obtained from identity by descent segments (coancestry) or runs of homozygosity (inbreeding). The results indicate that the percentage of variance of pedigree-based coancestry estimates explained by genomic coancestry estimates was higher than that for inbreeding. Estimates of effective population size obtained from genome-wide and pedigree information were consistent and ranged from about 66 to 79. These low values emphasize the need of controlling the rate of increase of coancestry and inbreeding in Holstein selection programmes.

  8. Birth size and adult size in same-sex siblings discordant for fetal growth in the Early Determinants of Adult Health study

    PubMed Central

    Lumey, L. H.; Susser, E.; Andrews, H.; Gillman, M. W.

    2014-01-01

    Many studies have reported on relations between birth size and adult size but the findings to date are hard to compare due to the lack of uniform measures across studies. Interpretation of findings is also hampered by potential confounding by ethnic, socioeconomic and family factors. The purpose of this study is to explore these relationships in a comprehensive fashion, with multiple measures of birth size and adult size, using same-sex sibling controls discordant in birth weight to address potential confounding at the family level. Study subjects include pregnant women enrolled during 1959–1966 in the Child Health and Development Study in Oakland, CA and the Boston, MA, and providence, RI, sites of the Collaborative Perinatal Project in New England, currently combined into the New England Family Study. We assessed 392 offspring (mean age 43 years), the great majority as sibships as available. Our analyses confirm the positive association between birth weight and adult length reported in other studies, with a change in adult height of 1.25 cm (95% CI: 0.79 to 1.70 cm) for each quintile change in standardized birth weight. No associations were seen between birth weight and adult fatness for which findings in other studies are highly variable. As adult weight is likely to reflect recent variations in the adult nutritional environment rather than the early environment, it may be more useful for studies of birth size and adult size to focus on adult length rather than weight measures in evaluating the role of early influences on adult health. PMID:24683446

  9. One size does not fit all: older adults benefit from redundant text in multimedia instruction

    PubMed Central

    Fenesi, Barbara; Vandermorris, Susan; Kim, Joseph A.; Shore, David I.; Heisz, Jennifer J.

    2015-01-01

    The multimedia design of presentations typically ignores that younger and older adults have varying cognitive strengths and weaknesses. We examined whether differential instructional design may enhance learning in these populations. Younger and older participants viewed one of three computer-based presentations: Audio only (narration), Redundant (audio narration with redundant text), or Complementary (audio narration with non-redundant text and images). Younger participants learned better when audio narration was paired with relevant images compared to when audio narration was paired with redundant text. However, older participants learned best when audio narration was paired with redundant text. Younger adults, who presumably have a higher working memory capacity (WMC), appear to benefit more from complementary information that may drive deeper conceptual processing. In contrast, older adults learn better from presentations that support redundant coding across modalities, which may help mitigate the effects of age-related decline in WMC. Additionally, several misconceptions of design quality appeared across age groups: both younger and older participants positively rated less effective designs. Findings suggest that one-size does not fit all, with older adults requiring unique multimedia design tailored to their cognitive abilities for effective learning. PMID:26284000

  10. Dynamics of stochastic SEIS epidemic model with varying population size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jiamin; Wei, Fengying

    2016-12-01

    We introduce the stochasticity into a deterministic model which has state variables susceptible-exposed-infected with varying population size in this paper. The infected individuals could return into susceptible compartment after recovering. We show that the stochastic model possesses a unique global solution under building up a suitable Lyapunov function and using generalized Itô's formula. The densities of the exposed and infected tend to extinction when some conditions are being valid. Moreover, the conditions of persistence to a global solution are derived when the parameters are subject to some simple criteria. The stochastic model admits a stationary distribution around the endemic equilibrium, which means that the disease will prevail. To check the validity of the main results, numerical simulations are demonstrated as end of this contribution.

  11. THE MASSIVE SATELLITE POPULATION OF MILKY-WAY-SIZED GALAXIES

    SciTech Connect

    Rodriguez-Puebla, Aldo; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Drory, Niv

    2013-08-20

    subhalos should agree with the abundance of massive satellites in all MW-sized hosts, i.e., there is not a missing (massive) satellite problem for the {Lambda}CDM cosmology. However, we confirm that the maximum circular velocity, v{sub max}, of the subhalos of satellites smaller than m{sub *} {approx} 10{sup 8} M{sub Sun} is systematically larger than the v{sub max} inferred from current observational studies of the MW bright dwarf satellites; different from previous works, this conclusion is based on an analysis of the overall population of MW-sized galaxies. Some pieces of evidence suggest that the issue could refer only to satellite dwarfs but not to central dwarfs, then environmental processes associated with dwarfs inside host halos combined with supernova-driven core expansion should be on the basis of the lowering of v{sub max}.

  12. Scale-dependent habitat selection and size-based dominance in adult male American alligators

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Strickland, Bradley A.; Vilella, Francisco; Belant, Jerrold L.

    2016-01-01

    Habitat selection is an active behavioral process that may vary across spatial and temporal scales. Animals choose an area of primary utilization (i.e., home range) then make decisions focused on resource needs within patches. Dominance may affect the spatial distribution of conspecifics and concomitant habitat selection. Size-dependent social dominance hierarchies have been documented in captive alligators, but evidence is lacking from wild populations. We studied habitat selection for adult male American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis; n = 17) on the Pearl River in central Mississippi, USA, to test whether habitat selection was scale-dependent and individual resource selectivity was a function of conspecific body size. We used K-select analysis to quantify selection at the home range scale and patches within the home range to determine selection congruency and important habitat variables. In addition, we used linear models to determine if body size was related to selection patterns and strengths. Our results indicated habitat selection of adult male alligators was a scale-dependent process. Alligators demonstrated greater overall selection for habitat variables at the patch level and less at the home range level, suggesting resources may not be limited when selecting a home range for animals in our study area. Further, diurnal habitat selection patterns may depend on thermoregulatory needs. There was no relationship between resource selection or home range size and body size, suggesting size-dependent dominance hierarchies may not have influenced alligator resource selection or space use in our sample. Though apparent habitat suitability and low alligator density did not manifest in an observed dominance hierarchy, we hypothesize that a change in either could increase intraspecific interactions, facilitating a dominance hierarchy. Due to the broad and diverse ecological roles of alligators, understanding the factors that influence their social dominance

  13. Scale-Dependent Habitat Selection and Size-Based Dominance in Adult Male American Alligators

    PubMed Central

    Strickland, Bradley A.; Vilella, Francisco J.; Belant, Jerrold L.

    2016-01-01

    Habitat selection is an active behavioral process that may vary across spatial and temporal scales. Animals choose an area of primary utilization (i.e., home range) then make decisions focused on resource needs within patches. Dominance may affect the spatial distribution of conspecifics and concomitant habitat selection. Size-dependent social dominance hierarchies have been documented in captive alligators, but evidence is lacking from wild populations. We studied habitat selection for adult male American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis; n = 17) on the Pearl River in central Mississippi, USA, to test whether habitat selection was scale-dependent and individual resource selectivity was a function of conspecific body size. We used K-select analysis to quantify selection at the home range scale and patches within the home range to determine selection congruency and important habitat variables. In addition, we used linear models to determine if body size was related to selection patterns and strengths. Our results indicated habitat selection of adult male alligators was a scale-dependent process. Alligators demonstrated greater overall selection for habitat variables at the patch level and less at the home range level, suggesting resources may not be limited when selecting a home range for animals in our study area. Further, diurnal habitat selection patterns may depend on thermoregulatory needs. There was no relationship between resource selection or home range size and body size, suggesting size-dependent dominance hierarchies may not have influenced alligator resource selection or space use in our sample. Though apparent habitat suitability and low alligator density did not manifest in an observed dominance hierarchy, we hypothesize that a change in either could increase intraspecific interactions, facilitating a dominance hierarchy. Due to the broad and diverse ecological roles of alligators, understanding the factors that influence their social dominance

  14. Population size and incidence of virus infection in free-living populations of Cucurbita pepo.

    PubMed

    Quemada, Hector; Strehlow, Laura; Decker-Walters, Deena S; Staub, Jack E

    2008-01-01

    Impact assessments of virus resistance transgene introgression into wild, free-living populations are important for determining whether these transgenes present a risk to agriculture or the environment. Transgenic virus-resistant Cucurbita pepo ssp. ovifera var. ovifera L. (squash) cultivars have been commercialized, and may be cultivated in close proximity to cross-compatible wild, free-living relatives (C. pepo subsp. pepo vars. ozarkana and texana). Therefore, the potential impact of these virus resistance transgenes was studied by surveying the incidence and fluctuations of virus infection (as assayed by ELISA), virus symptoms (which may not be seen in an infected plant) and population size in forty-three free-living C. pepo populations in Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. Ten of these populations were studied over three consecutive seasons. Depending on the year, 61% to 78% percent of the populations had at least one individual infected by at CMV, ZYMV or WMV2, but the median incidence of infection within populations was 13%. The observed infection level in free-living populations was consistent with levels defined as "low" in field plot experiments conducted by others, leading to the conclusion that transgenic virus resistance should not provide a significant fitness advantage to the free-living populations examined. Viral symptoms were detected in only 2% of plants observed, indicating that severity of viral infection was low. CMV, ZYMV, and WMV2 were not the only viruses infecting these populations, further reducing the likelihood that resistance to these viruses would release populations from constraints imposed by virus diseases.

  15. Retrotransposon populations of Vicia species with varying genome size.

    PubMed

    Hill, Pamela; Burford, Debbie; Martin, David M A; Flavell, Andrew J

    2005-06-01

    The (non-LTR) LINE and Ty3-gypsy-type LTR retrotransposon populations of three Vicia species that differ in genome size (Vicia faba, Vicia melanops and Vicia sativa) have been characterised. In each species the LINE retrotransposons comprise a complex, very heterogeneous set of sequences, while the Ty3-gypsy elements are much more homogeneous. Copy numbers of all three retrotransposon groups (Ty1-copia, Ty3-gypsy and LINE) in these species have been estimated by random genomic sequencing and Southern hybridisation analysis. The Ty3-gypsy elements are extremely numerous in all species, accounting for 18-35% of their genomes. The Ty1-copia group elements are somewhat less abundant and LINE elements are present in still lower amounts. Collectively, 20-45% of the genomes of these three Vicia species are comprised of retrotransposons. These data show that the three retrotransposon groups have proliferated to different extents in members of the Vicia genus and high proliferation has been associated with homogenisation of the retrotransposon population.

  16. Small Effective Population Sizes and Rare Nonsynonymous Variants in Potyviruses

    PubMed Central

    Hughes, Austin L.

    2009-01-01

    Analysis of nucleotide sequence polymorphism in complete genomes of 12 species of potyviruses (single-stranded, positive-sense RNA viruses, family Potyviridae) revealed evidence that long-term effective population sizes of these viruses are on the order of 104. Comparison of nucleotide diversity in non-coding regions and at synonymous and nonsynonymous sites in coding regions showed that purifying selection has acted to eliminate numerous deleterious mutations both at nonsynonymous sites and in non-coding regions. The ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous polymorphic sites increased as a function of the number of genomes sampled, whereas mean gene diversity at nonsynonymous polymorphic sites decreased with increasing sample size at a substantially faster rate than does mean gene diversity at synonymous polymorphic sites. Very similar relationships were observed both in available genomic sequences of 12 potyvirus species and in subsets created by randomly sampling from among 98 TuMV genomes. Taken together, these observations imply that a greater proportion of nonsynonymous than of synonymous variants are relatively rare as the result of ongoing purifying selection, and thus many nonsynonymous variants are unlikely to be discovered without extensive sampling. PMID:19695658

  17. Seasonal variation in environmental DNA in relation to population size and environmental factors

    PubMed Central

    Buxton, Andrew S.; Groombridge, Jim J.; Zakaria, Nurulhuda B.; Griffiths, Richard A.

    2017-01-01

    Analysing DNA that organisms release into the environment (environmental DNA, or eDNA) has enormous potential for assessing rare and cryptic species. At present the method is only reliably used to assess the presence-absence of species in natural environments, as seasonal influences on eDNA in relation to presence, abundance, life stages and seasonal behaviours are poorly understood. A naturally colonised, replicated pond system was used to show how seasonal changes in eDNA were influenced by abundance of adults and larvae of great crested newts (Triturus cristatus). Peaks in eDNA were observed in early June when adult breeding was coming to an end, and between mid-July and mid-August corresponding to a peak in newt larval abundance. Changes in adult body condition associated with reproduction also influenced eDNA concentrations, as did temperature (but not rainfall or UV). eDNA concentration fell rapidly as larvae metamorphosed and left the ponds. eDNA concentration may therefore reflect relative abundance in different ponds, although environmental factors can affect the concentrations observed. Nevertheless, eDNA surveys may still represent an improvement over unadjusted counts which are widely used in population assessments but have unreliable relationships with population size. PMID:28393885

  18. Effective size of a wild salmonid population is greatly reduced by hatchery supplementation

    PubMed Central

    Christie, M R; Marine, M L; French, R A; Waples, R S; Blouin, M S

    2012-01-01

    Many declining and commercially important populations are supplemented with captive-born individuals that are intentionally released into the wild. These supplementation programs often create large numbers of offspring from relatively few breeding adults, which can have substantial population-level effects. We examined the genetic effects of supplementation on a wild population of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from the Hood River, Oregon, by matching 12 run-years of hatchery steelhead back to their broodstock parents. We show that the effective number of breeders producing the hatchery fish (broodstock parents; Nb) was quite small (harmonic mean Nb=25 fish per brood-year vs 373 for wild fish), and was exacerbated by a high variance in broodstock reproductive success among individuals within years. The low Nb caused hatchery fish to have decreased allelic richness, increased average relatedness, more loci in linkage disequilibrium and substantial levels of genetic drift in comparison with their wild-born counterparts. We also documented a substantial Ryman–Laikre effect whereby the additional hatchery fish doubled the total number of adult fish on the spawning grounds each year, but cut the effective population size of the total population (wild and hatchery fish combined) by nearly two-thirds. We further demonstrate that the Ryman–Laikre effect is most severe in this population when (1) >10% of fish allowed onto spawning grounds are from hatcheries and (2) the hatchery fish have high reproductive success in the wild. These results emphasize the trade-offs that arise when supplementation programs attempt to balance disparate goals (increasing production while maintaining genetic diversity and fitness). PMID:22805657

  19. Habitat-specific size structure variations in periwinkle populations ( Littorina littorea) caused by biotic factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eschweiler, Nina; Molis, Markus; Buschbaum, Christian

    2009-06-01

    Shell size distribution patterns of marine gastropod populations may vary considerably across different environments. We investigated the size and density structure of genetically continuous periwinkle populations ( Littorina littorea) on an exposed rocky and a sheltered sedimentary environment on two nearby islands in the south-eastern North Sea (German Bight). On the sedimentary shore, periwinkle density (917 ± 722 individuals m-2) was about three times higher than on the rocky shore (296 ± 168 individuals m-2). Mean (9.8 ± 3.9 mm) and maximum (22 mm) shell size of L. littorea on the sedimentary shore were smaller than on the rocky shore (21.5 ± 4.2 and 32 mm, respectively), where only few small snails were found. Additionally, periwinkle shells were thicker and stronger on the rocky than on the sedimentary shore. To ascertain mechanisms responsible for differences in population structures, we examined periwinkles in both environments for growth rate, predation pressure, infection with a shell boring polychaete ( Polydora ciliata) and parasitic infestation by trematodes. A crosswise transplantation experiment revealed better growth conditions on the sedimentary than on the rocky shore. However, crab abundance and prevalence of parasites and P. ciliata in adult snails were higher on the sedimentary shore. Previous investigations showed that crabs prefer large periwinkles infested with P. ciliata. Thus, we suggest that parasites and shell boring P. ciliata in conjunction with an increased crab predation pressure are responsible for low abundances of large periwinkles on the sedimentary shore while high wave exposure may explain low densities of juvenile L. littorea on the rocky shore. We conclude that biotic factors may strongly contribute to observed differences in size structure of the L. littorea populations studied on rocky and sedimentary shores.

  20. Empirical Bayes procedure for estimating genetic distance between populations and effective population size.

    PubMed Central

    Kitada, S; Hayashi, T; Kishino, H

    2000-01-01

    We developed an empirical Bayes procedure to estimate genetic distances between populations using allele frequencies. This procedure makes it possible to describe the skewness of the genetic distance while taking full account of the uncertainty of the sample allele frequencies. Dirichlet priors of the allele frequencies are specified, and the posterior distributions of the various composite parameters are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. To avoid overdependence on subjective priors, we adopt a hierarchical model and estimate hyperparameters by maximizing the joint marginal-likelihood function. Taking advantage of the empirical Bayesian procedure, we extend the method to estimate the effective population size using temporal changes in allele frequencies. The method is applied to data sets on red sea bream, herring, northern pike, and ayu broodstock. It is shown that overdispersion overestimates the genetic distance and underestimates the effective population size, if it is not taken into account during the analysis. The joint marginal-likelihood function also estimates the rate of gene flow into island populations. PMID:11102396

  1. Comparative estimation of effective population sizes and temporal gene flow in two contrasting population systems.

    PubMed

    Fraser, Dylan J; Hansen, Michael M; Ostergaard, Siri; Tessier, Nathalie; Legault, Michel; Bernatchez, Louis

    2007-09-01

    Estimation of effective population sizes (N(e)) and temporal gene flow (N(e)m, m) has many implications for understanding population structure in evolutionary and conservation biology. However, comparative studies that gauge the relative performance of N(e), N(e)m or m methods are few. Using temporal genetic data from two salmonid fish population systems with disparate population structure, we (i) evaluated the congruence in estimates and precision of long- and short-term N(e), N(e)m and m from six methods; (ii) explored the effects of metapopulation structure on N(e) estimation in one system with spatiotemporally linked subpopulations, using three approaches; and (iii) determined to what degree interpopulation gene flow was asymmetric over time. We found that long-term N(e) estimates exceeded short-term N(e) within populations by 2-10 times; the two were correlated in the system with temporally stable structure (Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar) but not in the highly dynamic system (brown trout, Salmo trutta). Four temporal methods yielded short-term N(e) estimates within populations that were strongly correlated, and these were higher but more variable within salmon populations than within trout populations. In trout populations, however, these short-term N(e) estimates were always lower when assuming gene flow than when assuming no gene flow. Linkage disequilibrium data generally yielded short-term N(e) estimates of the same magnitude as temporal methods in both systems, but the two were uncorrelated. Correlations between long- and short-term geneflow estimates were inconsistent between methods, and their relative size varied up to eightfold within systems. While asymmetries in gene flow were common in both systems (58-63% of population-pair comparisons), they were only temporally stable in direction within certain salmon population pairs, suggesting that gene flow between particular populations is often intermittent and/or variable. Exploratory metapopulation N

  2. Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

    PubMed

    Deutsch, Madeline B

    2016-06-01

    An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities.

  3. Accurate Non-parametric Estimation of Recent Effective Population Size from Segments of Identity by Descent.

    PubMed

    Browning, Sharon R; Browning, Brian L

    2015-09-03

    Existing methods for estimating historical effective population size from genetic data have been unable to accurately estimate effective population size during the most recent past. We present a non-parametric method for accurately estimating recent effective population size by using inferred long segments of identity by descent (IBD). We found that inferred segments of IBD contain information about effective population size from around 4 generations to around 50 generations ago for SNP array data and to over 200 generations ago for sequence data. In human populations that we examined, the estimates of effective size were approximately one-third of the census size. We estimate the effective population size of European-ancestry individuals in the UK four generations ago to be eight million and the effective population size of Finland four generations ago to be 0.7 million. Our method is implemented in the open-source IBDNe software package.

  4. Accurate Non-parametric Estimation of Recent Effective Population Size from Segments of Identity by Descent

    PubMed Central

    Browning, Sharon R.; Browning, Brian L.

    2015-01-01

    Existing methods for estimating historical effective population size from genetic data have been unable to accurately estimate effective population size during the most recent past. We present a non-parametric method for accurately estimating recent effective population size by using inferred long segments of identity by descent (IBD). We found that inferred segments of IBD contain information about effective population size from around 4 generations to around 50 generations ago for SNP array data and to over 200 generations ago for sequence data. In human populations that we examined, the estimates of effective size were approximately one-third of the census size. We estimate the effective population size of European-ancestry individuals in the UK four generations ago to be eight million and the effective population size of Finland four generations ago to be 0.7 million. Our method is implemented in the open-source IBDNe software package. PMID:26299365

  5. A survey of FRAXE allele sizes in three populations

    SciTech Connect

    Zhong, N.; Ju, W.; Curley, D.

    1996-08-09

    FRAXE is a fragile site located at Xq27-8, which contains polymorphic triplet GCC repeats associated with a CpG island. Similar to FRAXA, expansion of the GCC repeats results in an abnormal methylation of the CpG island and is associated with a mild mental retardation syndrome (FRAXE-MR). We surveyed the GCC repeat alleles of FRAXE from 3 populations. A total of 665 X chromosomes including 416 from a New York Euro-American sample (259 normal and 157 with FRAXA mutations), 157 from a Chinese sample (144 normal and 13 FRAXA), and 92 from a Finnish sample (56 normal and 36 FRAXA) were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction. Twenty-seven alleles, ranging from 4 to 39 GCC repeats, were observed. The modal repeat number was 16 in the New York and Finnish samples and accounted for 24% of all the chromosomes tested (162/665). The modal repeat number in the Chinese sample was 18. A founder effect for FRAXA was suggested among the Finnish FRAXA samples in that 75% had the FRAXE 16 repeat allele versus only 30% of controls. Sequencing of the FRAXE region showed no imperfections within the GCC repeat region, such as those commonly seen in FRAXA. The smaller size and limited range of repeats and the lack of imperfections suggests the molecular mechanisms underlying FRAXE triplet mutations may be different from those underlying FRAXA. 27 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  6. Evolutionary divergence of adult body size and juvenile growth in sympatric subpopulations of a top predator in aquatic ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Tibblin, Petter; Forsman, Anders; Koch-Schmidt, Per; Nordahl, Oscar; Johannessen, Peter; Nilsson, Jonas; Larsson, Per

    2015-07-01

    Evolutionary theory predicts that different selective regimes may contribute to divergent evolution of body size and growth rate among populations, but most studies have focused on allopatric populations. Here, we studied five sympatric subpopulations of anadromous northern pike (Esox lucius) in the Baltic Sea subjected to allopatric habitats for a short period of their life cycle due to homing behavior. We report differences in adult body size among subpopulations that were in part due to variation in growth rate. Body size of emigrating juveniles also differed among subpopulations, and differences remained when individuals were reared in a common environment, thus indicating evolutionary divergence among subpopulations. Furthermore, a QST-FST comparison indicated that differences had evolved due to divergent selection rather than genetic drift, possibly in response to differences in selective mortality among spawning habitats during the allopatric life stage. Adult and juvenile size were negatively correlated across subpopulations, and reconstruction of growth trajectories of adult fishes suggested that body size differences developed gradually and became accentuated throughout the first years of life. These results represent rare evidence that sympatric subpopulations can evolve differences in key life-history traits despite being subjected to allopatric habitats during only a very short fraction of their life.

  7. Effective/census population size ratio estimation: a compendium and appraisal

    PubMed Central

    Palstra, Friso P; Fraser, Dylan J

    2012-01-01

    With an ecological-evolutionary perspective increasingly applied toward the conservation and management of endangered or exploited species, the genetic estimation of effective population size (Ne) has proliferated. Based on a comprehensive analysis of empirical literature from the past two decades, we asked: (i) how often do studies link Ne to the adult census population size (N)? (ii) To what extent is Ne correctly linked to N? (iii) How readily is uncertainty accounted for in both Ne and N when quantifying Ne/N ratios? and (iv) how frequently and to what degree might errors in the estimation of Ne or N affect inferences of Ne/N ratios? We found that only 20% of available Ne estimates (508 of 2617; 233 studies) explicitly attempted to link Ne and N; of these, only 31% (160 of 508) correctly linked Ne and N. Moreover, only 7% (41 of 508) of Ne/N ratios (correctly linked or not) reported confidence intervals for both Ne and N; for those cases where confidence intervals were reported for Ne only, 31% of Ne/N ratios overlapped with 1, of which more than half also reached below Ne/N = 0.01. Uncertainty in Ne/N ratios thus sometimes spanned at least two orders of magnitude. We conclude that the estimation of Ne/N ratios in natural populations could be significantly improved, discuss several options for doing so, and briefly outline some future research directions. PMID:23139893

  8. Population size, survival, and movements of white-cheeked pintails in Eastern Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collazo, J.A.; Bonilla-Martinez, G.

    2001-01-01

    We estimated numbers and survival of White-cheeked Pintails (Anas bahamensis) in eastern Puerto Rico during 1996-1999. We also quantified their movements between Culebra Island and the Humacao Wildlife Refuge, Puerto Rico. Mark-resight population size estimates averaged 1020 pintails during nine, 3-month sampling periods from January 1997 to June 1999. On average, minimum regional counts were 38 % lower than mark-resight estimates (mean = 631). Adult survival was 0.51 ?? 0.09 (SE). This estimate is similar for other anatids of similar size but broader geographic distribution. The probability of pintails surviving and staying in Humacao was hiher (67 %) than for counterparts on Culebra (31 %). The probability of surviving and moving from Culebra to Humacao (41 %) was higher than from Humacao to Culebra (20 %). These findings, and available information on reproduction, indicate that the Humacao Wildlife Refuge refuge has an important role in the regional demography of pintails. Our findings on population numbers and regional survival are encouraging, given concerns about the species' status due to habitat loss and hunting. However, our outlook for the species is tempered by the remaining gaps in the population dynamics of pintails; for examples, survival estimates of broods and fledglings (age 0-1) are needed for a comprehensive status assessment. Until additional data are obtianed, White-cheeked Pintails should continue to be protectd from hunting in Puerto Rico.

  9. Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

    PubMed

    Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

    2012-03-01

    1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States.

  10. The Prevalence of Tooth Wear in the Dutch Adult Population

    PubMed Central

    Wetselaar, Peter; Vermaire, Jan H.; Visscher, Corine M.; Lobbezoo, Frank; Schuller, Annemarie A.

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to assess the prevalence of tooth wear in different age groups of the Dutch adult population and to determine this tooth wear distribution by gender, socioeconomic class, and type of teeth. Results were compared with the outcomes of a previous study in a comparable population. As part of a comprehensive investigation of the oral health of the general Dutch adult population in 2013, tooth wear was assessed among 1,125 subjects in the city of ‘s-Hertogenbosch. The data collected were subjected to stratified analysis by 5 age groups (25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65-74 years), gender, socioeconomic class, and type of teeth. Tooth wear was assessed using a 5-point ordinal occlusal/incisal grading scale. The number of teeth affected was higher in older age groups. Men showed more tooth wear than women, and subjects with low socioeconomic status (low SES) showed on average higher scores than those with high SES. Tooth wear prevalence found in this study was higher in all age groups than in the previous study. The present study found prevalences of 13% for mild tooth wear and 80% for moderate tooth wear, leading to the conclusion that these are common conditions in the Dutch adult population. Severe tooth wear (prevalence 6%) may however be characterized as rare. A tendency was found for there to be more tooth wear in older age groups, in men as compared with women, in persons with lower SES, and in the present survey as compared with the previous one. PMID:27694757

  11. Same size--same niche? Foraging niche separation between sympatric juvenile Galapagos sea lions and adult Galapagos fur seals.

    PubMed

    Jeglinski, Jana W E; Goetz, Kimberley T; Werner, Christiane; Costa, Daniel P; Trillmich, Fritz

    2013-05-01

    1. In vertebrates, patterns of resource utilization change throughout development according to age- and or size-specific abilities and requirements. Thus, interspecific competition affects different age classes differently. 2. Adults of sympatric species often show distinct foraging niche segregation, but juvenile resource use might overlap with adult competitors of similar body size. Resultant negative effects on juveniles can have important consequences for population dynamics, yet such interactions have received little attention in studies of mammalian communities. 3. Using GPS tracking devices, time-depth recorders and stable isotope data, we compared diving depth, activity time, trophic position and foraging habitat characteristics to investigate foraging niche overlap between similar-sized sympatric juvenile Galapagos sea lions (Zalophus wollebaeki) and adult Galapagos fur seals (Arctocephalus galapagoensis) and compared each group with much larger-bodied adult Galapagos sea lions. 4. We found little indication for direct competition but a complex pattern of foraging niche segregation: juvenile sea lions and adult fur seals dived to shallow depths at night, but foraged in different habitats with limited spatial overlap. Conversely, juvenile and adult sea lions employed different foraging patterns, but their foraging areas overlapped almost completely. 5. Consistency of foraging habitat characteristics between juvenile and adult sea lions suggests that avoidance of competition may be important in shaping foraging habitat utilization. Resultant specialization on a limited habitat could contribute to low sea lion numbers that contrast with high fur seal abundance. Our data suggest that exploitation by multiple predators within spatially restricted foraging ranges of juveniles might negatively impact juvenile foraging success and ultimately influence population dynamics.

  12. Morphometric Evaluation of Adult Acromion Process in North Indian Population

    PubMed Central

    Vasudeva, Neelam

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Dimensions of acromion process are important to show linkage to the shoulder girdle pathologies. Also morphometric analysis of acromion process would be helpful for surgeons while performing surgical procedures on the shoulder joint. Aim The purpose of this present study was to observe the detailed morphometric evaluation of adult acromion processes in North Indian population because different morphometric dimensions play an important role in various disorders of the shoulder, particularly sub acromial impingement syndrome. Materials and Methods Two hundred adult dry scapulae from the osteology museum of MAMC, New Delhi, were obtained for evaluation of various measurement of acromion process. The length, width, thickness of acromion, coraco-acromial (C-A) distance and acromio-glenoid (Ac-g) distance were measured. The measurements were compared with other osteological studies performed on different population group. Data was analysed using SPSS version 12.0 and mean values with standard deviation for each dimension were presented. Results The mean values of each measurement were: length: 41.007 mm; width: 21.82 mm; thickness: 6.58 mm; C-A distance: 28.34 mm and Ac-g distance: 26.21 mm. Conclusion It is expected that various dimensions of adult acromion process will serve as a reference base and will assist the surgeon in the approach to be used and precision of the operative technique. So, the study will provide a vital support for planning and executing acromioplasty in the treatment of impingement syndrome. PMID:28273959

  13. How many steps/day are enough? For older adults and special populations

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Older adults and special populations (living with disability and/or chronic illness that may limit mobility and/or physical endurance) can benefit from practicing a more physically active lifestyle, typically by increasing ambulatory activity. Step counting devices (accelerometers and pedometers) offer an opportunity to monitor daily ambulatory activity; however, an appropriate translation of public health guidelines in terms of steps/day is unknown. Therefore this review was conducted to translate public health recommendations in terms of steps/day. Normative data indicates that 1) healthy older adults average 2,000-9,000 steps/day, and 2) special populations average 1,200-8,800 steps/day. Pedometer-based interventions in older adults and special populations elicit a weighted increase of approximately 775 steps/day (or an effect size of 0.26) and 2,215 steps/day (or an effect size of 0.67), respectively. There is no evidence to inform a moderate intensity cadence (i.e., steps/minute) in older adults at this time. However, using the adult cadence of 100 steps/minute to demark the lower end of an absolutely-defined moderate intensity (i.e., 3 METs), and multiplying this by 30 minutes produces a reasonable heuristic (i.e., guiding) value of 3,000 steps. However, this cadence may be unattainable in some frail/diseased populations. Regardless, to truly translate public health guidelines, these steps should be taken over and above activities performed in the course of daily living, be of at least moderate intensity accumulated in minimally 10 minute bouts, and add up to at least 150 minutes over the week. Considering a daily background of 5,000 steps/day (which may actually be too high for some older adults and/or special populations), a computed translation approximates 8,000 steps on days that include a target of achieving 30 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), and approximately 7,100 steps/day if averaged over a week. Measured directly and

  14. Extinction risk of a density-dependent population estimated from a time series of population size.

    PubMed

    Hakoyama, H; Iwasa, Y

    2000-06-07

    Environmental threats, such as habitat size reduction or environmental pollution, may not cause immediate extinction of a population but shorten the expected time to extinction. We develop a method to estimate the mean time to extinction for a density-dependent population with environmental fluctuation. We first derive a formula for a stochastic differential equation model (canonical model) of a population with logistic growth with environmental and demographic stochasticities. We then study an approximate maximum likelihood (AML) estimate of three parameters (intrinsic growth rate r, carrying capacity K, and environmental stochasticity sigma(2)(e)) from a time series of population size. The AML estimate of r has a significant bias, but by adopting the Monte Carlo method, we can remove the bias very effectively (bias-corrected estimate). We can also determine the confidence interval of the parameter based on the Monte Carlo method. If the length of the time series is moderately long (with 40-50 data points), parameter estimation with the Monte Carlo sampling bias correction has a relatively small variance. However, if the time series is short (less than or equal to 10 data points), the estimate has a large variance and is not reliable. If we know the intrinsic growth rate r, however, the estimate of K and sigma(2)(e)and the mean extinction time T are reliable even if only a short time series is available. We illustrate the method using data for a freshwater fish, Japanese crucian carp (Carassius auratus subsp.) in Lake Biwa, in which the growth rate and environmental noise of crucian carp are estimated using fishery records.

  15. Adaptive evolution and effective population size in wild house mice.

    PubMed

    Phifer-Rixey, Megan; Bonhomme, François; Boursot, Pierre; Churchill, Gary A; Piálek, Jaroslav; Tucker, Priscilla K; Nachman, Michael W

    2012-10-01

    Estimates of the proportion of amino acid substitutions that have been fixed by selection (α) vary widely among taxa, ranging from zero in humans to over 50% in Drosophila. This wide range may reflect differences in the efficacy of selection due to differences in the effective population size (N(e)). However, most comparisons have been made among distantly related organisms that differ not only in N(e) but also in many other aspects of their biology. Here, we estimate α in three closely related lineages of house mice that have a similar ecology but differ widely in N(e): Mus musculus musculus (N(e) ∼ 25,000-120,000), M. m. domesticus (N(e) ∼ 58,000-200,000), and M. m. castaneus (N(e) ∼ 200,000-733,000). Mice were genotyped using a high-density single nucleotide polymorphism array, and the proportions of replacement and silent mutations within subspecies were compared with those fixed between each subspecies and an outgroup, Mus spretus. There was significant evidence of positive selection in M. m. castaneus, the lineage with the largest N(e), with α estimated to be approximately 40%. In contrast, estimates of α for M. m. domesticus (α = 13%) and for M. m. musculus (α = 12 %) were much smaller. Interestingly, the higher estimate of α for M. m. castaneus appears to reflect not only more adaptive fixations but also more effective purifying selection. These results support the hypothesis that differences in N(e) contribute to differences among species in the efficacy of selection.

  16. The Effect of Nonindependent Mate Pairing on the Effective Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Ben J.; Charlesworth, Brian

    2013-01-01

    The effective population size (Ne) quantifies the effectiveness of genetic drift in finite populations. When generations overlap, theoretical expectations for Ne typically assume that the sampling of offspring genotypes from a given individual is independent among successive breeding events, even though this is not true in many species, including humans. To explore the effects on Ne of nonindependent mate pairing across breeding events, we simulated the genetic drift of mitochondrial DNA, autosomal DNA, and sex chromosome DNA under three mating systems. Nonindependent mate pairing across breeding seasons has no effect when all adults mate pair for life, a small or moderate effect when females reuse stored sperm, and a large effect when there is intense male–male competition for reproduction in a harem social system. If adult females reproduce at a constant rate irrespective of the type of mate pairing, the general effect of nonindependent mate pairing is to decrease Ne for paternally inherited components of the genome. These findings have significant implications for the relative Ne values of different genomic regions, and hence for the expected levels of DNA sequence diversity in these regions. PMID:23183666

  17. Elevational variation in adult body size and growth rate but not in metabolic rate in the tree weta Hemideina crassidens.

    PubMed

    Bulgarella, Mariana; Trewick, Steven A; Godfrey, A Jonathan R; Sinclair, Brent J; Morgan-Richards, Mary

    2015-04-01

    Populations of the same species inhabiting distinct localities experience different ecological and climatic pressures that might result in differentiation in traits, particularly those related to temperature. We compared metabolic rate (and its thermal sensitivity), growth rate, and body size among nine high- and low-elevation populations of the Wellington tree weta, Hemideina crassidens, distributed from 9 to 1171 m a.s.l across New Zealand. Our results did not indicate elevational compensation in metabolic rates (metabolic cold adaptation). Cold acclimation decreased metabolic rate compared to warm-acclimated individuals from both high- and low-elevation populations. However, we did find countergradient variation in growth rates, with individuals from high-elevation populations growing faster and to a larger final size than individuals from low-elevation populations. Females grew faster to a larger size than males, although as adults their metabolic rates did not differ significantly. The combined physiological and morphological data suggest that high-elevation individuals grow quickly and achieve larger size while maintaining metabolic rates at levels not significantly different from low-elevation individuals. Thus, morphological differentiation among tree weta populations, in concert with genetic variation, might provide the material required for adaptation to changing conditions.

  18. Small population size and extremely low levels of genetic diversity in island populations of the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus

    PubMed Central

    Furlan, Elise; Stoklosa, J; Griffiths, J; Gust, N; Ellis, R; Huggins, R M; Weeks, A R

    2012-01-01

    Genetic diversity generally underpins population resilience and persistence. Reductions in population size and absence of gene flow can lead to reductions in genetic diversity, reproductive fitness, and a limited ability to adapt to environmental change increasing the risk of extinction. Island populations are typically small and isolated, and as a result, inbreeding and reduced genetic diversity elevate their extinction risk. Two island populations of the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus, exist; a naturally occurring population on King Island in Bass Strait and a recently introduced population on Kangaroo Island off the coast of South Australia. Here we assessed the genetic diversity within these two island populations and contrasted these patterns with genetic diversity estimates in areas from which the populations are likely to have been founded. On Kangaroo Island, we also modeled live capture data to determine estimates of population size. Levels of genetic diversity in King Island platypuses are perilously low, with eight of 13 microsatellite loci fixed, likely reflecting their small population size and prolonged isolation. Estimates of heterozygosity detected by microsatellites (HE= 0.032) are among the lowest level of genetic diversity recorded by this method in a naturally outbreeding vertebrate population. In contrast, estimates of genetic diversity on Kangaroo Island are somewhat higher. However, estimates of small population size and the limited founders combined with genetic isolation are likely to lead to further losses of genetic diversity through time for the Kangaroo Island platypus population. Implications for the future of these and similarly isolated or genetically depauperate populations are discussed. PMID:22837830

  19. Population genetic structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population size of conserved and extensively raised village chicken populations of Southern Africa.

    PubMed

    Khanyile, Khulekani S; Dzomba, Edgar F; Muchadeyi, Farai C

    2015-01-01

    Extensively raised village chickens are considered a valuable source of biodiversity, with genetic variability developed over thousands of years that ought to be characterized and utilized. Surveys that can reveal a population's genetic structure and provide an insight into its demographic history will give valuable information that can be used to manage and conserve important indigenous animal genetic resources. This study reports population diversity and structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population sizes of Southern African village chickens and conservation flocks from South Africa. DNA samples from 312 chickens from South African village and conservation flocks (n = 146), Malawi (n = 30) and Zimbabwe (n = 136) were genotyped using the Illumina iSelect chicken SNP60K BeadChip. Population genetic structure analysis distinguished the four conservation flocks from the village chicken populations. Of the four flocks, the Ovambo clustered closer to the village chickens particularly those sampled from South Africa. Clustering of the village chickens followed a geographic gradient whereby South African chickens were closer to those from Zimbabwe than to chickens from Malawi. Different conservation flocks seemed to have maintained different components of the ancestral genomes with a higher proportion of village chicken diversity found in the Ovambo population. Overall population LD averaged over chromosomes ranged from 0.03 ± 0.07 to 0.58 ± 0.41 and averaged 0.15 ± 0.16. Higher LD, ranging from 0.29 to 0.36, was observed between SNP markers that were less than 10 kb apart in the conservation flocks. LD in the conservation flocks steadily decreased to 0.15 (PK) and 0.24 (VD) at SNP marker interval of 500 kb. Genomewide LD decay in the village chickens from Malawi, Zimbabwe and South Africa followed a similar trend as the conservation flocks although the mean LD values for the investigated SNP intervals were lower. The results suggest low effective

  20. Population genetic structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population size of conserved and extensively raised village chicken populations of Southern Africa

    PubMed Central

    Khanyile, Khulekani S.; Dzomba, Edgar F.; Muchadeyi, Farai C.

    2015-01-01

    Extensively raised village chickens are considered a valuable source of biodiversity, with genetic variability developed over thousands of years that ought to be characterized and utilized. Surveys that can reveal a population's genetic structure and provide an insight into its demographic history will give valuable information that can be used to manage and conserve important indigenous animal genetic resources. This study reports population diversity and structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population sizes of Southern African village chickens and conservation flocks from South Africa. DNA samples from 312 chickens from South African village and conservation flocks (n = 146), Malawi (n = 30) and Zimbabwe (n = 136) were genotyped using the Illumina iSelect chicken SNP60K BeadChip. Population genetic structure analysis distinguished the four conservation flocks from the village chicken populations. Of the four flocks, the Ovambo clustered closer to the village chickens particularly those sampled from South Africa. Clustering of the village chickens followed a geographic gradient whereby South African chickens were closer to those from Zimbabwe than to chickens from Malawi. Different conservation flocks seemed to have maintained different components of the ancestral genomes with a higher proportion of village chicken diversity found in the Ovambo population. Overall population LD averaged over chromosomes ranged from 0.03 ± 0.07 to 0.58 ± 0.41 and averaged 0.15 ± 0.16. Higher LD, ranging from 0.29 to 0.36, was observed between SNP markers that were less than 10 kb apart in the conservation flocks. LD in the conservation flocks steadily decreased to 0.15 (PK) and 0.24 (VD) at SNP marker interval of 500 kb. Genomewide LD decay in the village chickens from Malawi, Zimbabwe and South Africa followed a similar trend as the conservation flocks although the mean LD values for the investigated SNP intervals were lower. The results suggest low effective

  1. [Obesity in adults: a population based study in a small town in South of Brazil, 2005].

    PubMed

    Sarturi, Juliana Barbosa; das Neves, Janaina; Peres, Karen Glazer

    2010-01-01

    Changes in nutritional pattern in Brazilian population have been observed mainly in relation to obesity increase. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of obesity and associated factors in adult population in Santo Angelo, Rio Grande do Sul State, 2005. A cross sectional study was carried out involving adult subjects from 20 to 59 years old (n=434), of both sexes. People with Body Mass Index equal to or higher than 30 kg/m(2) were considered obese. A questionnaire was applied to collect data related to socioeconomic, demographic, and behavioral conditions. The multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the associated factors. The response rate was 95.0% and the prevalence of obesity was equal to 16.6% (CI 95% 13.120.1). Presence of obesity was positively associated with lack of physical activity, none feeding habits care, and some individuals that mentioned current health problems regardless of sex. The prevalence of obesity found was similar to other Brazilian population based studies. The results may support planning and implementing prevention actions as well as obesity control in adult population taking into account the relevant details of a small size town.

  2. Landscape Simplification Constrains Adult Size in a Native Ground-Nesting Bee

    PubMed Central

    Renauld, Miles; Hutchinson, Alena; Loeb, Gregory; Poveda, Katja; Connelly, Heather

    2016-01-01

    Bees provide critical pollination services to 87% of angiosperm plants; however, the reliability of these services may become threatened as bee populations decline. Agricultural intensification, resulting in the simplification of environments at the landscape scale, greatly changes the quality and quantity of resources available for female bees to provision their offspring. These changes may alter or constrain the tradeoffs in maternal investment allocation between offspring size, number and sex required to maximize fitness. Here we investigate the relationship between landscape scale agricultural intensification and the size and number of individuals within a wild ground nesting bee species, Andrena nasonii. We show that agricultural intensification at the landscape scale was associated with a reduction in the average size of field collected A. nasonii adults in highly agricultural landscapes but not with the number of individuals collected. Small females carried significantly smaller (40%) pollen loads than large females, which is likely to have consequences for subsequent offspring production and fitness. Thus, landscape simplification is likely to constrain allocation of resources to offspring through a reduction in the overall quantity, quality and distribution of resources. PMID:26943127

  3. Founding population size of an aquatic invasive species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kalinowski, Steven T.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Guy, Christopher S.; Benjamin Cox,

    2010-01-01

    Non-native species of fish threaten native fishes throughout North America, and in the Rocky Mountains, introduced populations of lake trout threaten native populations of bull trout. Effective management of lake trout and other exotic species require understanding the dynamics of invasion in order to either suppress non-native populations or to prevent their spread. In this study, we used microsatellite genetic data to estimate the number of lake trout that invaded a population of bull trout in Swan Lake, MT. Examination of genetic diversity and allele frequencies within the Swan Lake populations showed that most of the genes in the lake trout population are descended from two founders. This emphasizes the importance of preventing even a few lake trout from colonizing new territory.

  4. Four types of interference competition and their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Lai; Andersen, Ken H; Dieckmann, Ulf; Brännström, Åke

    2015-09-07

    We investigate how four types of interference competition - which alternatively affect foraging, metabolism, survival, and reproduction - impact the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations. Even though all four types of interference competition reduce population biomass, interference competition at intermediate intensity sometimes significantly increases the abundance of adult individuals and the population׳s reproduction rate. We find that foraging and metabolic interference evolutionarily favor smaller maturation size when interference is weak and larger maturation size when interference is strong. The evolutionary response to survival interference and reproductive interference is always larger maturation size. We also investigate how the four types of interference competition impact the evolutionary dynamics and resultant diversity and trophic structure of size-structured communities. Like other types of trait-mediated competition, all four types of interference competition can induce disruptive selection and thus promote initial diversification. Even though foraging interference and reproductive interference are more potent in promoting initial diversification, they catalyze the formation of diverse communities with complex trophic structure only at high levels of interference intensity. By contrast, survival interference does so already at intermediate levels, while reproductive interference can only support relatively smaller communities with simpler trophic structure. Taken together, our results show how the type and intensity of interference competition jointly affect coexistence patterns in structured population models.

  5. Functional significance of mononuclear phagocyte populations generated through adult hematopoiesis

    PubMed Central

    Gutknecht, Michael F.; Bouton, Amy H.

    2014-01-01

    Tissue homeostasis requires a complete repertoire of functional macrophages in peripheral tissues. Recent evidence indicates that many resident tissue macrophages are seeded during embryonic development and persist through adulthood as a consequence of localized proliferation. Mononuclear phagocytes are also produced during adult hematopoiesis; these cells are then recruited to sites throughout the body, where they function in tissue repair and remodeling, resolution of inflammation, maintenance of homeostasis, and disease progression. The focus of this review is on mononuclear phagocytes that comprise the nonresident monocyte/macrophage populations in the body. Key features of monocyte differentiation are presented, focusing primarily on the developmental hierarchy that is established through this process, the markers used to identify discrete cell populations, and novel, functional attributes of these cells. These features are then explored in the context of the tumor microenvironment, where mononuclear phagocytes exhibit extensive plasticity in phenotype and function. PMID:25225678

  6. Measuring a hidden population: A novel technique to estimate the population size of women with sexual violence-related pregnancies in South Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo.

    PubMed

    Johnston, Lisa G; McLaughlin, Katherine R; Rouhani, Shada A; Bartels, Susan A

    2017-03-01

    Successive sampling (SS)-population size estimation (PSE) is a technique used to estimate the sizes of hidden populations using data collected in respondent-driven sampling (RDS) surveys. We assess past estimations and use new data from an RDS survey to calculate a new PSE. In 2012, 852 adult women in South Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo, who self-identified as survivors of sexual violence, resulting in a pregnancy, since the start of the war (in 1996) were sampled using RDS. We used imputed visibility, enrollment order, and prior estimates for PSE using SS-PSE in RDS Analyst. Prior estimates varied between Congolese local experts and researchers. We calculated the PSE of women with a sexual violence-related pregnancy in South Kivu using researchers' priors to be approximately 17,400. SS-PSE is an effective method for estimating the population sizes of hidden populations, useful for providing evidence for services and resource allocation. SS-PSE is beneficial because population sizes can be calculated after conducting the survey and do not rely on separate studies or additional data (as in network scale-up, multiplier, and capture-recapture methods).

  7. Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M.

    2015-07-01

    The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann’s cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann’s rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution.

  8. Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population

    PubMed Central

    Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M.

    2015-01-01

    The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann’s cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann’s rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution. PMID:26197998

  9. Microhabitat use, population densities, and size distributions of sulfur cave-dwelling Poecilia mexicana

    PubMed Central

    Bierbach, David; Riesch, Rüdiger; Schießl, Angela; Wigh, Adriana; Arias-Rodriguez, Lenin; Indy, Jeane Rimber; Klaus, Sebastian; Zimmer, Claudia; Plath, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The Cueva del Azufre in Tabasco, Mexico, is a nutrient-rich cave and its inhabitants need to cope with high levels of dissolved hydrogen sulfide and extreme hypoxia. One of the successful colonizers of this cave is the poeciliid fish Poecilia mexicana, which has received considerable attention as a model organism to examine evolutionary adaptations to extreme environmental conditions. Nonetheless, basic ecological data on the endemic cave molly population are still missing; here we aim to provide data on population densities, size class compositions and use of different microhabitats. We found high overall densities in the cave and highest densities at the middle part of the cave with more than 200 individuals per square meter. These sites have lower H2S concentrations compared to the inner parts where most large sulfide sources are located, but they are annually exposed to a religious harvesting ceremony of local Zoque people called La Pesca. We found a marked shift in size/age compositions towards an overabundance of smaller, juvenile fish at those sites. We discuss these findings in relation to several environmental gradients within the cave (i.e., differences in toxicity and lighting conditions), but we also tentatively argue that the annual fish harvest during a religious ceremony (La Pesca) locally diminishes competition (and possibly, cannibalism by large adults), which is followed by a phase of overcompensation of fish densities. PMID:25083351

  10. Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rauter, Claudia M.

    2010-01-01

    This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

  11. Temporal genetic variation of mitochondrial DNA and the female effective population size of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

    PubMed

    1999-07-01

    We studied genetic drift of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotype frequencies in a natural population of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) from the northern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The amount of genetic drift observed across temporally adjacent year classes (1986-89) was used to estimate variance effective (female) population size (Nef). Nef was estimated to be 14 308 and the ratio of female effective size to adult female census size was approximately 0.004, which is among the lowest value reported for vertebrate animals. Low effective size relative to census size among red drum in the northern Gulf may result from yearly fluctuations in the number of breeding females, high variance in female reproductive success, or both. Despite low genetic effective size relative to census size, the genetic effective population size of red drum in the northern Gulf appears sufficiently large to preclude potentially deleterious effects of inbreeding.

  12. Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

    PubMed

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

    2014-11-01

    Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean

  13. Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

    PubMed

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-01-07

    Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

  14. Antarctic krill population genomics: apparent panmixia, but genome complexity and large population size muddy the water.

    PubMed

    Deagle, Bruce E; Faux, Cassandra; Kawaguchi, So; Meyer, Bettina; Jarman, Simon N

    2015-10-01

    Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) are an incredibly abundant pelagic crustacean which has a wide, but patchy, distribution in the Southern Ocean. Several studies have examined the potential for population genetic structuring in krill, but DNA-based analyses have focused on a limited number of markers and have covered only part of their circum-Antarctic range. We used mitochondrial DNA and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) to investigate genetic differences between krill from five sites, including two from East Antarctica. Our mtDNA results show no discernible genetic structuring between sites separated by thousands of kilometres, which is consistent with previous studies. Using standard RAD-seq methodology, we obtained over a billion sequences from >140 krill, and thousands of variable nucleotides were identified at hundreds of loci. However, downstream analysis found that markers with sufficient coverage were primarily from multicopy genomic regions. Careful examination of these data highlights the complexity of the RAD-seq approach in organisms with very large genomes. To characterize the multicopy markers, we recorded sequence counts from variable nucleotide sites rather than the derived genotypes; we also examined a small number of manually curated genotypes. Although these analyses effectively fingerprinted individuals, and uncovered a minor laboratory batch effect, no population structuring was observed. Overall, our results are consistent with panmixia of krill throughout their distribution. This result may indicate ongoing gene flow. However, krill's enormous population size creates substantial panmictic inertia, so genetic differentiation may not occur on an ecologically relevant timescale even if demographically separate populations exist.

  15. [Alimentation dependent health disorders among adult population of Bashkortostan Republic and their relation with nutritional traits].

    PubMed

    Takaev, R M; Kondrova, N S; Baĭkina, I M; Larionova, T K

    2008-01-01

    The authors demonstrated relationship between alimentation dependent diseases among adult population of the Republic and nutritional traits of the population, defined major directions of program to optimize nutrition of the population.

  16. Determining size and dispersion of minimum viable populations for land management planning and species conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehmkuhl, John F.

    1984-03-01

    The concept of minimum populations of wildlife and plants has only recently been discussed in the literature. Population genetics has emerged as a basic underlying criterion for determining minimum population size. This paper presents a genetic framework and procedure for determining minimum viable population size and dispersion strategies in the context of multiple-use land management planning. A procedure is presented for determining minimum population size based on maintenance of genetic heterozygosity and reduction of inbreeding. A minimum effective population size ( N e ) of 50 breeding animals is taken from the literature as the minimum shortterm size to keep inbreeding below 1% per generation. Steps in the procedure adjust N e to account for variance in progeny number, unequal sex ratios, overlapping generations, population fluctuations, and period of habitat/population constraint. The result is an approximate census number that falls within a range of effective population size of 50 500 individuals. This population range defines the time range of short- to long-term population fitness and evolutionary potential. The length of the term is a relative function of the species generation time. Two population dispersion strategies are proposed: core population and dispersed population.

  17. Predictors of Septic Arthritis in the Adult Population.

    PubMed

    Borzio, Robert; Mulchandani, Neil; Pivec, Robert; Kapadia, Bhaveen H; Leven, Dante; Harwin, Steven F; Urban, William P

    2016-07-01

    Septic arthritis is a devastating condition; well-established criteria for diagnosis exist in the pediatric population, but not for adults. This study evaluated patient factors and laboratory parameters that may be associated with the diagnosis of septic arthritis in adults. A total of 458 knee aspirates for suspected septic arthritis were evaluated with serum and synovial leukocyte counts and differentials as well as Kocher criteria for pediatric septic arthritis. Twenty-two patients (4.8%) had septic arthritis confirmed by a positive synovial fluid culture. Erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and serum white blood cell (WBC) counts were not statistically different between the 2 groups, with 64% of septic arthritis patients having a normal serum WBC count and 77% being afebrile. Mean synovial fluid WBC count was 26,758 cells/µL and 70,581 cells/µL in the nonseptic and septic groups, respectively. The likelihood ratio for a synovial fluid WBC count greater than 65,000 cells/µL was 2.8 (95% confidence interval, 1.2-6.7). Evaluation receiver operating characteristic curves using synovial WBC counts resulted in a significant area under the curve of 0.66 (P=.02). To achieve 90% specificity, a WBC cutoff of 64,000 cells/µL was required with a corresponding sensitivity of 40%. There was no significant difference in the synovial cell differential of 80% vs 90% in diagnosing infection. Synovial fluid WBC count greater than 64,000 cells/µL yielded the optimal combination of sensitivity and specificity. Polymorphonuclear leukocytes, ESR, serum WBC count, fever, and weight-bearing status were not significant predictors of septic arthritis. This study demonstrates the limited utility of Kocher criteria in the adult population and the importance of synovial leukocyte counts. [Orthopedics. 2016; 39(4):e657-e663.].

  18. The Effect of HIFA Waiver Expansions on Uninsurance Rates in Adult Populations

    PubMed Central

    Atherly, Adam; Dowd, Bryan E; Coulam, Robert F; Guy, Gery

    2012-01-01

    Research Objective To evaluate the effect of the Health Insurance Flexibility and Accountability (HIFA) demonstrations on the rate of uninsured. The policy purpose of the HIFA demonstrations is to encourage “new comprehensive state approaches” that will increase the number of insured. HIFA interventions include changes in benefit packages, eligibility rules for public programs, and state subsidization of private health insurance premiums. Some states emphasized private insurance (premium assistance), whereas others placed greater emphasis on expanded eligibility for public insurance. Data Sources/Study Setting Data were drawn from the Current Population Survey from 2000 to 2007. The target populations for the HIFA waiver demonstrations consisted of individuals who were eligible for the HIFA waiver demonstrations in demonstration states. Study Design The estimation approach was a probit model using a difference-in-differences approach. Principal Findings In states that fully implemented their HIFA waiver, HIFA increased the rate of insurance coverage by 6.4 percentage points on average in the targeted adult population, suggesting that approximately 118,848 adults gained health insurance due to HIFA. Total HIFA adult enrollment in the six states studied was 280,739. The effect size varied by state, with Maine having the largest effect and Illinois the smallest. The results were robust to different specifications of the control group. Conclusions Our findings suggest that public insurance initiatives that provide states with flexibility regarding eligibility and plan design are a viable policy approach to reducing uninsurance rates. PMID:22299673

  19. Young adults' trajectories of Ecstasy use: a population based study.

    PubMed

    Smirnov, Andrew; Najman, Jake M; Hayatbakhsh, Reza; Plotnikova, Maria; Wells, Helene; Legosz, Margot; Kemp, Robert

    2013-11-01

    Young adults' Ecstasy use trajectories have important implications for individual and population-level consequences of Ecstasy use, but little relevant research has been conducted. This study prospectively examines Ecstasy trajectories in a population-based sample. Data are from the Natural History Study of Drug Use, a retrospective/prospective cohort study conducted in Australia. Population screening identified a probability sample of Ecstasy users aged 19-23 years. Complete data for 30 months of follow-up, comprising 4 time intervals, were available for 297 participants (88.4% of sample). Trajectories were derived using cluster analysis based on recent Ecstasy use at each interval. Trajectory predictors were examined using a generalized ordered logit model and included Ecstasy dependence (World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Instrument), psychological distress (Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale), aggression (Young Adult Self Report) and contextual factors (e.g. attendance at electronic/dance music events). Three Ecstasy trajectories were identified (low, intermediate and high use). At its peak, the high-use trajectory involved 1-2 days Ecstasy use per week. Decreasing frequency of use was observed for intermediate and high-use trajectories from 12 months, independently of market factors. Intermediate and high-use trajectory membership was predicted by past Ecstasy consumption (>70 pills) and attendance at electronic/dance music events. High-use trajectory members were unlikely to have used Ecstasy for more than 3 years and tended to report consistently positive subjective effects at baseline. Given the social context and temporal course of Ecstasy use, Ecstasy trajectories might be better understood in terms of instrumental rather than addictive drug use patterns.

  20. Age and Time Population Differences: Young Adults, Gen Xers, and Millennials

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menard, Lauren A.

    2013-01-01

    Age and Time disparities in young adult research populations are common because young adults are defined by varying age spans; members of Generation X and Millennial generations may both be considered young adults; study years vary, affecting populations; and qualitative methods with limited age/year samples are frequently utilized. The current…

  1. Prey size selection and distance estimation in foraging adult dragonflies.

    PubMed

    Olberg, R M; Worthington, A H; Fox, J L; Bessette, C E; Loosemore, M P

    2005-09-01

    To determine whether perching dragonflies visually assess the distance to potential prey items, we presented artificial prey, glass beads suspended from fine wires, to perching dragonflies in the field. We videotaped the responses of freely foraging dragonflies (Libellula luctuosa and Sympetrum vicinum-Odonata, suborder Anisoptera) to beads ranging from 0.5 mm to 8 mm in diameter, recording whether or not the dragonflies took off after the beads, and if so, at what distance. Our results indicated that dragonflies were highly selective for bead size. Furthermore, the smaller Sympetrum preferred beads of smaller size and the larger Libellula preferred larger beads. Each species rejected beads as large or larger than their heads, even when the beads subtended the same visual angles as the smaller, attractive beads. Since bead size cannot be determined without reference to distance, we conclude that dragonflies are able to estimate the distance to potential prey items. The range over which they estimate distance is about 1 m for the larger Libellula and 70 cm for the smaller Sympetrum. The mechanism of distance estimation is unknown, but it probably includes both stereopsis and the motion parallax produced by head movements.

  2. Birth weight, Early Life Course BMI, and Body Size Change: Chains of Risk to Adult Inflammation?

    PubMed Central

    Goosby, Bridget J.; Cheadle, Jacob E.; McDade, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how body size changes over the early life course predict high-sensitivity C-reactive protein in a U.S. based sample. Using three waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), we test the chronic disease epidemiological models of fetal origins, sensitive periods, and chains of risk from birth into adulthood. Few studies link birth weight and changes in obesity status over adolescence and early adulthood to adult obesity and inflammation. Consistent with fetal origins and sensitive periods hypotheses, body size and obesity status at each developmental period, along with increasing body size between periods, are highly correlated with adult CRP. However, the predictive power of earlier life course periods is mediated by body size and body size change at later periods in a pattern consistent with the chains of risk model. Adult increases in obesity had effect sizes of nearly .3sd, and effect sizes from overweight to the largest obesity categories were between .3–1sd. There was also evidence that risk can be offset by weight loss, which suggests that interventions can reduce inflammation and cardiovascular risk, that females are more sensitive to body size changes, and that body size trajectories over the early life course account for African American-and Hispanic-white disparities in adult inflammation. PMID:26685708

  3. An aerial sightability model for estimating ferruginous hawk population size

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ayers, L.W.; Anderson, S.H.

    1999-01-01

    Most raptor aerial survey projects have focused on numeric description of visibility bias without identifying the contributing factors or developing predictive models to account for imperfect detection rates. Our goal was to develop a sightability model for nesting ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) that could account for nests missed during aerial surveys and provide more accurate population estimates. Eighteen observers, all unfamiliar with nest locations in a known population, searched for nests within 300 m of flight transects via a Maule fixed-wing aircraft. Flight variables tested for their influence on nest-detection rates included aircraft speed, height, direction of travel, time of day, light condition, distance to nest, and observer experience level. Nest variables included status (active vs. inactive), condition (i.e., excellent, good, fair, poor, bad), substrate type, topography, and tree density. A multiple logistic regression model identified nest substrate type, distance to nest, and observer experience level as significant predictors of detection rates (P < 0.05). The overall model was significant (??26 = 124.4, P < 0.001, n = 255 nest observations), and the correct classification rate was 78.4%. During 2 validation surveys, observers saw 23.7% (14/59) and 36.5% (23/63) of the actual population. Sightability model predictions, with 90% confidence intervals, captured the true population in both tests. Our results indicate standardized aerial surveys, when used in conjunction with the predictive sightability model, can provide unbiased population estimates for nesting ferruginous hawks.

  4. The influence of body size on adult skeletal age estimation methods.

    PubMed

    Merritt, Catherine E

    2015-01-01

    Accurate age estimations are essential to archaeological and forensic analyses. However, reliability for adult skeletal age estimations is poor, especially for individuals over the age of 40 years. This is the first study to show that body size influences skeletal age estimation. The İşcan et al., Lovejoy et al., Buckberry and Chamberlain, and Suchey-Brooks age methods were tested on 764 adult skeletons from the Hamann-Todd and William Bass Collections. Statures ranged from 1.30 to 1.93 m and body masses ranged from 24.0 to 99.8 kg. Transition analysis was used to evaluate the differences in the age estimations. For all four methods, the smallest individuals have the lowest ages at transition and the largest individuals have the highest ages at transition. Short and light individuals are consistently underaged, while tall and heavy individuals are consistently overaged. When femoral length and femoral head diameter are compared with the log-age model, results show the same trend as the known stature and body mass measurements. The skeletal remains of underweight individuals have fewer age markers while those of obese individuals have increased surface degeneration and osteophytic lipping. Tissue type and mechanical loading have been shown to affect bone turnover rates, and may explain the differing patterns of skeletal aging. From an archaeological perspective, the underaging of light, short individuals suggests the need to revisit the current research consensus on the young mortality rates of past populations. From a forensic perspective, understanding the influence of body size will impact efforts to identify victims of mass disasters, genocides, and homicides.

  5. Loss of microsatellite diversity and low effective population size in an overexploited population of New Zealand snapper (Pagrus auratus)

    PubMed Central

    Hauser, Lorenz; Adcock, Greg J.; Smith, Peter J.; Bernal Ramírez, Julio H.; Carvalho, Gary R.

    2002-01-01

    Although the effects of overfishing on species diversity and abundance are well documented, threats to the genetic diversity of marine fish populations have so far been largely neglected. Indeed, there seems to be little cause for concern, as even “collapsed” stocks usually consist of several million individuals, whereas population genetics theory suggests that only very small populations suffer significant loss of genetic diversity. On the other hand, in many marine species the genetically effective population size (Ne), which determines the genetic properties of a population, may be orders of magnitude smaller than the census population size (N). Here, microsatellite analyses of a time series of archived scales demonstrated a significant decline in genetic diversity in a New Zealand snapper population during its exploitation history. Effective population sizes estimated both from the decline in heterozygosity and from temporal fluctuations in allele frequency were five orders of magnitude smaller than census population sizes from fishery data. If such low Ne/N ratios are commonplace in marine species, many exploited marine fish stocks may be in danger of losing genetic variability, potentially resulting in reduced adaptability, population persistence, and productivity. PMID:12185245

  6. Estimating population size of Pygoscelid Penguins from TM data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Olson, Charles E., Jr.; Schwaller, Mathew R.; Dahmer, Paul A.

    1987-01-01

    An estimate was made toward a continent wide population of penguins. The results indicate that Thematic Mapper data can be used to identify penguin rookeries due to the unique reflectance properties of guano. Strong correlations exist between nesting populations and rookery area occupied by the birds. These correlations allow estimation of the number of nesting pairs in colonies. The success of remote sensing and biometric analyses leads one to believe that a continent wide estimate of penguin populations is possible based on a timely sample employing ground based and remote sensing techniques. Satellite remote sensing along the coastline may well locate previously undiscovered penguin nesting sites, or locate rookeries which have been assumed to exist for over a half century, but never located. Observations which found that penguins are one of the most sensitive elements in the complex of Southern Ocean ecosystems motivated this study.

  7. Differences in absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion of xenobiotics between the paediatric and adult populations.

    PubMed

    Strolin Benedetti, M; Whomsley, R; Baltes, E L

    2005-10-01

    In children, the therapeutic benefits and potential risks associated with drug treatment may be different from those in adults and will depend on the exposure, receptor sensitivity and relationship between effect and exposure. In this paper, key factors undergoing maturational changes accounting for differences in drug metabolism and disposition in the paediatric population compared with adults are reviewed. Gastric and duodenal pH, gastric emptying time, intestinal transit time, secretion and activity of bile and pancreatic fluid, bacterial colonisation and transporters, such as P-glycoprotein (P-gp), are important factors for drug absorption, whereas key factors explaining differences in drug distribution between the paediatric population and adults are organ size, membrane permeability, plasma protein concentration and characteristics, endogenous substances in plasma, total body and extracellular water, fat content, regional blood flow and transporters such as P-gp, which is present not only in the gut, but also in liver, kidney, brain and other tissues. As far as drug metabolism is concerned, important differences have been found in the paediatric population compared with adults both for phase I enzymes (oxidative [e.g., cytochrome P450 (CYP)1A2, and CYP3A7 versus -3A4], reductive and hydrolytic enzymes) and phase II enzymes (e.g., N-methyltransferases and glucuronosyltransferases). Generally, the major enzyme differences observed in comparison with the adult age are in newborn infants, although for some enzymes (e.g., glucuronosyltransferases and other phase II enzymes) important differences still exist between infants and toddlers and adults. Finally, key factors undergoing maturational changes accounting for differences in renal excretion in the paediatric population compared with adults are glomerular filtration and tubular secretion. The ranking of the key factors varies according to the chemical structure and physicochemical properties of the drug

  8. Using target population specification, effect size, and reach to estimate and compare the population impact of two PTSD preventive interventions.

    PubMed

    Zatzick, Douglas F; Koepsell, Thomas; Rivara, Frederick P

    2009-01-01

    The population impact of a preventive intervention depends on two factors: what proportion of the full population at risk receives the intervention and how large a reduction in risk occurs among those who receive it. We sought to illustrate how information from a cognitive behavioral psychotherapy (CBT) trial and stepped collaborative care (CC) trial could be used to estimate the population impact of two contrasting approaches to PTSD prevention. We first specified trauma center target populations represented by participants in each trial. Patient characteristics were compared, as were effect size and reach indices and population-level reductions in PTSD incidence. The CBT trial demonstrated a larger effect size (50% PTSD prevention), but minimal reach (27/10,000), while the CC trial demonstrated a smaller effect size (7% PTSD prevention) but greater reach (1762/10,000). Modeling of the population impact suggested that a 9.5-fold greater cumulative reduction in the incidence of PTSD would result from the dissemination of the CC broad reach prevention strategy. A reciprocal relationship between effect size and reach was evident in these two trials. By specifying a target population, effect size and reach could be combined to project the overall population impact of each PTSD prevention approach.

  9. Population size of snowy plovers breeding in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Susan M.; Lyons, James E.; Andres, Brad A.; T-Smith, Elise Elliot; Palacios, Eduardo; Cavitt, John F.; Royle, J. Andrew; Fellows, Suzanne D.; Maty, Kendra; Howe, William H.; Mellink, Eric; Melvin, Stefani; Zimmerman, Tara

    2012-01-01

    Snowy Plovers (Charadrius nivosus) may be one of the rarest shorebirds in North America yet a comprehensive assessment of their abundance and distribution has not been completed. During 2007 and 2008, 557 discrete wetlands were surveyed and nine additional large wetland complexes sampled in México and the USA. From these surveys, a population of 23,555 (95% CI = 17,299 – 29,859) breeding Snowy Plovers was estimated. Combining the estimate with information from areas not surveyed, the total North American population was assessed at 25,869 (95% CI = 18,917 – 32,173). Approximately 42% of all breeding Snowy Plovers in North America resided at two sites (Great Salt Lake, Utah, and Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge, Oklahoma), and 33% of all these were on wetlands in the Great Basin (including Great Salt Lake). Also, coastal habitats in central and southern Texas supported large numbers of breeding plovers. New breeding sites were discovered in interior deserts and highlands and along the Pacific coast of México; approximately 9% of the North American breeding population occurred in México. Because of uncertainties about effects of climate change and current stresses to breeding habitats, the species should be a management and conservation priority. Periodic monitoring should be undertaken at important sites to ensure high quality habitat is available to support the Snowy Plover population.

  10. Cohort Size and Migration in a West Indian Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brittain, Ann W.

    1990-01-01

    Data from St. Barthelemy (French West Indies) show that, for people born from 1878 to 1967, neither cohort size nor fluctuations in external demands for labor had a lasting effect on the probability of eventual migration. Emigration slowed only after development of local tourism brought prosperity to the island. (AF)

  11. The size distribution of conspecific populations: the peoples of New Guinea.

    PubMed Central

    Novotny, V; Drozd, P

    2000-01-01

    The size distribution of the language populations in New Guinea, which represent over 15% of the world's languages, is analysed using models analogous to the resource division models of species abundance distribution in ecological communities. A model distribution of resource segments reflecting population size is created by repeated selection of an existing resource segment and its division into two. We found that any dependency of the selection probability on the size of the segment generated negatively skewed abundance distributions after log transformation. Asymmetric segment division further exacerbated the negative skewness. Size-independent selection produced lognormal abundance distributions, irrespective of the segment division method. Size-dependent selection and asymmetric division were deemed reasonable assumptions since large language populations are more likely to generate isolates, which develop into new populations, than small ones, and these isolates are likely to be small relative to the progenitor population. A negatively skewed distribution of the log-transformed population sizes was therefore expected. However, the observed distributions were lognormal, scale invariant for areas containing between 100 and over 1000 language populations. The dynamics of language differentiation, as reflected by the models, may therefore be unimportant relative to the effect of variable growth rates among populations. All lognormal distributions from resource division models had a higher variance than the observed one, where half of the 1053 populations had between 350 and 3000 individuals. The possible mechanisms maintaining such a low variance around a modal population size of 1000 are discussed. PMID:10853740

  12. Life and health satisfaction in the adult population of Iran

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES Increasing interest has emerged in the use of subjective well-being as a development indicator and for the evaluation of public policies. The aim of this study was to assess life and health satisfaction and their determinants in the adult population of Iran. METHODS We conducted a survey of a sample of 3,150 adults at least 18 years of age in Tehran, the capital of Iran. The subjects were selected using a stratified random sampling method, and they were interviewed face-to-face at their usual residence by trained interviewers. Life satisfaction was used as a measure of subjective well-being. We used ordinary least square regression models to assess the associations of life and health satisfaction with socio-demographic variables. RESULTS On a 0-10 scale, the mean (standard deviation) scores for life and health satisfaction were 6.93 (2.54) and 7.18 (1.97), respectively. The average score for life satisfaction in females was 0.52 points higher than in males. A U-shaped relationship was found between age and life satisfaction, with respondents 35 to 44 years of age having the lowest average level of life satisfaction. Satisfaction with life and health among divorced respondents was significantly lower than among never-married and married participants. The scores for life satisfaction in respondents who rated their health status as poor were 3.83 points lower than in those who rated their health status as excellent. CONCLUSIONS The majority of the population of Tehran was satisfied with their life and health. Self-rated health status had the greatest impact on life satisfaction. PMID:27809456

  13. Potential environmental influences on variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism among Arizona populations of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amarello, Melissa; Nowak, Erica M.; Taylor, Emily N.; Schuett, Gordon W.; Repp, Roger A.; Rosen, Philip C.; Hardy, David L.

    2010-01-01

    Differences in resource availability and quality along environmental gradients are important influences contributing to intraspecific variation in body size, which influences numerous life-history traits. Here, we examined variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in relation to temperature, seasonality, and precipitation among 10 populations located throughout Arizona of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox). Specifically, in our analyses we addressed the following questions: (i) Are adult males larger in cooler, wetter areas? (ii) Does female body size respond differently to environmental variation? (iii) Is seasonality a better predictor of body size variation? (iv) Is SSD positively correlated with increased resources? We demonstrate that male and female C. atrox are larger in body size in cooler (i.e., lower average annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperature) and wetter areas (i.e., higher average annual precipitation, more variable precipitation, and available surface water). Although SSD in C. atrox appeared to be more pronounced in cooler, wetter areas, this relationship did not achieve statistical significance.

  14. Inter-class competition in stage-structured populations: effects of adult density on life-history traits of adult and juvenile common lizards.

    PubMed

    San-Jose, Luis M; Peñalver-Alcázar, Miguel; Huyghe, Katleen; Breedveld, Merel C; Fitze, Patrick S

    2016-12-01

    Ecological and evolutionary processes in natural populations are largely influenced by the population's stage-structure. Commonly, different classes have different competitive abilities, e.g., due to differences in body size, suggesting that inter-class competition may be important and largely asymmetric. However, experimental evidence states that inter-class competition, which is important, is rare and restricted to marine fish. Here, we manipulated the adult density in six semi-natural populations of the European common lizard, Zootoca vivipara, while holding juvenile density constant. Adult density affected juveniles, but not adults, in line with inter-class competition. High adult density led to lower juvenile survival and growth before hibernation. In contrast, juvenile survival after hibernation was higher in populations with high adult density, pointing to relaxed inter-class competition. As a result, annual survival was not affected by adult density, showing that differences in pre- and post-hibernation survival balanced each other out. The intensity of inter-class competition affected reproduction, performance, and body size in juveniles. Path analyses unravelled direct treatment effects on early growth (pre-hibernation) and no direct treatment effects on the parameters measured after hibernation. This points to allometry of treatment-induced differences in early growth, and it suggests that inter-class competition mainly affects the early growth of the competitively inferior class and thereby their future performance and reproduction. These results are in contrast with previous findings and, together with results in marine fish, suggest that the strength and direction of density dependence may depend on the degree of inter-class competition, and thus on the availability of resources used by the competing classes.

  15. The Relationship between the Proportional Size of the Special Education Population and Academic Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harper, Patricia Kenner

    2013-01-01

    This investigation addressed the hypothesized effects of the proportional size of a district's special education population on the overall student achievement in selected school districts in Texas. The size of a district's special education population (independent variable) was compared to districts' achievement (dependent variables) in order to…

  16. Effect of reference population size and available ancestor genotypes on imputation of Mexican Holstein genotypes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The effects of reference population size and the availability of information from genotyped ancestors on the accuracy of imputation of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were investigated for Mexican Holstein cattle. Three scenarios for reference population size were examined: (1) a local popula...

  17. Prevalence of Dental Caries in Kosovar Adult Population

    PubMed Central

    Begzati, Agim; Kelmendi, Jeta; Ilijazi, Donika; Kqiku, Lumnije

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of dental caries in the Kosovar adult population. Materials and Methods. A cross-sectional study in Kosovo was conducted examining 9387 patients, aged 18 upwards, between January 2010 and December 2011. Clinical evaluation was done using WHO criteria for evaluation of dental health status and data collection. Results. The prevalence of caries for the whole study was 72.80%. The mean DMFT index was 9.61 (±5.12) in the 18–34-year age group, 11.6 (±6.42) in the 35–44-year age group, 13.68 (±8.12) among the 45–64-year age group, 17.98 (±9.81) in the 65–74-year age group, and 23.19 (±9.41) in the age group of 75+ years, respectively. A significant difference of mean DMFT and its each component was observed between the ages (P < 0.001). Conclusion. This study comes out with the significant levels of dental caries among young Kosovar population (18–34 years old). PMID:27516774

  18. Noninvasive genetics provides insights into the population size and genetic diversity of an Amur tiger population in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Dan; Hu, Yibo; Ma, Tianxiao; Nie, Yonggang; Xie, Yan; Wei, Fuwen

    2016-01-01

    Understanding population size and genetic diversity is critical for effective conservation of endangered species. The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is the largest felid and a flagship species for wildlife conservation. Due to habitat loss and human activities, available habitat and population size are continuously shrinking. However, little is known about the true population size and genetic diversity of wild tiger populations in China. In this study, we collected 55 fecal samples and 1 hair sample to investigate the population size and genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers in Hunchun National Nature Reserve, Jilin Province, China. From the samples, we determined that 23 fecal samples and 1 hair sample were from 7 Amur tigers: 2 males, 4 females and 1 individual of unknown sex. Interestingly, 2 fecal samples that were presumed to be from tigers were from Amur leopards, highlighting the significant advantages of noninvasive genetics over traditional methods in studying rare and elusive animals. Analyses from this sample suggested that the genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers is much lower than that of Bengal tigers, consistent with previous findings. Furthermore, the genetic diversity of this Hunchun population in China was lower than that of the adjoining subpopulation in southwest Primorye Russia, likely due to sampling bias. Considering the small population size and relatively low genetic diversity, it is urgent to protect this endangered local subpopulation in China.

  19. Genetic effective size is three orders of magnitude smaller than adult census size in an abundant, Estuarine-dependent marine fish (Sciaenops ocellatus).

    PubMed

    Turner, Thomas F; Wares, John P; Gold, John R

    2002-11-01

    Using eight microsatellite loci and a variety of analytical methods, we estimated genetic effective size (N(e)) of an abundant and long-lived marine fish species, the red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus), in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The ratio N(e)/N, where short-term variance N(e) was estimated via the temporal method from shifts in allele-frequency data over four cohorts and where N reflected a current estimate of adult census size in the northern Gulf, was approximately 0.001. In an idealized population, this ratio should approximate unity. The extraordinarily low value of N(e)/N appears to arise from high variance in individual reproductive success and perhaps more importantly from variance in productivity of critical spawning and nursery habitats located in spatially discrete bays and estuaries throughout the northern Gulf. An estimate of N(e) based on a coalescent approach, which measures long-term, inbreeding effective size, was four orders of magnitude lower than the estimate of current census size, suggesting that factors presently driving N(e)/N to low values among red drum in the northern Gulf may have operated similarly in the past. Models that predict N(e)/N exclusively from demographic and life-history features will seriously overestimate N(e) if variance in reproductive success and variance in productivity among spatially discrete demes is underestimated. Our results indicate that these variances, especially variance in productivity among demes, must be large for red drum. Moreover, our study indicates that vertebrate populations with enormous adult census numbers may still be at risk relative to decline and extinction from genetic factors.

  20. Genetic effective size is three orders of magnitude smaller than adult census size in an abundant, Estuarine-dependent marine fish (Sciaenops ocellatus).

    PubMed Central

    Turner, Thomas F; Wares, John P; Gold, John R

    2002-01-01

    Using eight microsatellite loci and a variety of analytical methods, we estimated genetic effective size (N(e)) of an abundant and long-lived marine fish species, the red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus), in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The ratio N(e)/N, where short-term variance N(e) was estimated via the temporal method from shifts in allele-frequency data over four cohorts and where N reflected a current estimate of adult census size in the northern Gulf, was approximately 0.001. In an idealized population, this ratio should approximate unity. The extraordinarily low value of N(e)/N appears to arise from high variance in individual reproductive success and perhaps more importantly from variance in productivity of critical spawning and nursery habitats located in spatially discrete bays and estuaries throughout the northern Gulf. An estimate of N(e) based on a coalescent approach, which measures long-term, inbreeding effective size, was four orders of magnitude lower than the estimate of current census size, suggesting that factors presently driving N(e)/N to low values among red drum in the northern Gulf may have operated similarly in the past. Models that predict N(e)/N exclusively from demographic and life-history features will seriously overestimate N(e) if variance in reproductive success and variance in productivity among spatially discrete demes is underestimated. Our results indicate that these variances, especially variance in productivity among demes, must be large for red drum. Moreover, our study indicates that vertebrate populations with enormous adult census numbers may still be at risk relative to decline and extinction from genetic factors. PMID:12454077

  1. Testing mechanisms of Bergmann's rule: phenotypic decline but no genetic change in body size in three passerine bird populations.

    PubMed

    Husby, Arild; Hille, Sabine M; Visser, Marcel E

    2011-08-01

    Bergmann's rule predicts a decrease in body size with increasing temperature and has much empirical support. Surprisingly, we know very little about whether "Bergmann size clines" are due to a genetic response or are a consequence of phenotypic plasticity. Here, we use data on body size (mass and tarsus length) from three long-term (1979-2008) study populations of great tits (Parus major) that experienced a temperature increase to examine mechanisms behind Bergmann's rule. We show that adult body mass decreased over the study period in all populations and that tarsus length increased in one population. Both body mass and tarsus length were heritable and under weak positive directional selection, predicting an increase, rather than a decrease, in body mass. There was no support for microevolutionary change, and thus the observed declines in body mass were likely a result of phenotypic plasticity. Interestingly, this plasticity was not in direct response to temperature changes but seemed to be due to changes in prey dynamics. Our results caution against interpreting recent phenotypic body size declines as adaptive evolutionary responses to temperature changes and highlight the importance of considering alternative environmental factors when testing size clines.

  2. A computer program for estimating fish population sizes and annual production rates

    SciTech Connect

    Railsback, S.F.; Holcomb, B.D.; Ryon, M.G.

    1989-10-01

    This report documents a program that estimates fish population sizes and annual production rates in small streams from multiple-pass sampling data. A maximum weighted likelihood method is used to estimate population sizes (Carle and Strub, 1978), and a size-frequency method is used to estimate production (Garman and Waters, 1983). The program performs the following steps: (1) reads in the data and performs error checking; (2) where required, uses length-weight regression to fill in missing weights; (3) assigns length classes to the fish; (4) for each date, species, and length class, estimates the population size and its variance; (5) for each date and species, estimates the total population size and its variance; and (6) for each species, estimates the annual production rate and its variance between sampling dates selected by the user. If data from only date are used, only populations are estimated. 9 refs.

  3. Airway responsiveness to sulfur dioxide in an adult population sample.

    PubMed

    Nowak, D; Jörres, R; Berger, J; Claussen, M; Magnussen, H

    1997-10-01

    We determined the prevalence of airway hyperresponsiveness to sulfur dioxide (SO2) in an adult population sample of 790 subjects 20 to 44 yr of age. Subjects were drawn randomly from the population of Hamburg, Northern Germany, within the framework of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey. In addition, we analyzed the relationship between SO2 responsiveness and a number of risk factors, such as a history of respiratory symptoms, methacholine responsiveness, and atopy derived from skin-prick test results. SO2 inhalation challenges were performed during isocapnic hyperventilation at constant rate (40 L x min(-1), for 3 min) with doubling concentrations of SO2 up to a maximum concentration of 2.0 ppm. If subjects achieved a 20% decrease in FEV1 from baseline during the challenge, they were considered to be hyperresponsive to SO2. The raw prevalence of SO2 hyperresponsiveness within the population sample studied was 3.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.3 to 5.0%). Adjustment for nonparticipation led to an estimated prevalence of SO2 hyperresponsiveness of 5.4%. Among subjects with hyperresponsiveness to methacholine, 22.4% (95% CI: 20.1 to 25.3) demonstrated hyperresponsiveness to SO2. There was no significant correlation between the degrees of hyperresponsiveness to methacholine and SO2. Predictors of a positive SO2 response were hyperresponsiveness to methacholine (p < 0.0001), a positive history of respiratory symptoms (p < 0.05), and a positive skin-prick test to at least one common allergen (p < 0.05). We conclude from these data that airway hyperresponsiveness to SO2 can be found in about 20 to 25% of subjects within the 20- to 44-yr age range who are hyperresponsive to methacholine.

  4. Does population size affect genetic diversity? A test with sympatric lizard species

    PubMed Central

    Hague, M T J; Routman, E J

    2016-01-01

    Genetic diversity is a fundamental requirement for evolution and adaptation. Nonetheless, the forces that maintain patterns of genetic variation in wild populations are not completely understood. Neutral theory posits that genetic diversity will increase with a larger effective population size and the decreasing effects of drift. However, the lack of compelling evidence for a relationship between genetic diversity and population size in comparative studies has generated some skepticism over the degree that neutral sequence evolution drives overall patterns of diversity. The goal of this study was to measure genetic diversity among sympatric populations of related lizard species that differ in population size and other ecological factors. By sampling related species from a single geographic location, we aimed to reduce nuisance variance in genetic diversity owing to species differences, for example, in mutation rates or historical biogeography. We compared populations of zebra-tailed lizards and western banded geckos, which are abundant and short-lived, to chuckwallas and desert iguanas, which are less common and long-lived. We assessed population genetic diversity at three protein-coding loci for each species. Our results were consistent with the predictions of neutral theory, as the abundant species almost always had higher levels of haplotype diversity than the less common species. Higher population genetic diversity in the abundant species is likely due to a combination of demographic factors, including larger local population sizes (and presumably effective population sizes), faster generation times and high rates of gene flow with other populations. PMID:26306730

  5. Stage-specific biomass overcompensation by juveniles in response to increased adult mortality in a wild fish population.

    PubMed

    Ohlberger, Jan; Langangen, Øystein; Edeline, Eric; Claessen, David; Winfield, Ian J; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn

    2011-12-01

    Recently developed theoretical models of stage-structured consumer-resource systems have shown that stage-specific biomass overcompensation can arise in response to increased mortality rates. We parameterized a stage-structured population model to simulate the effects of increased adult mortality caused by a pathogen outbreak in the perch (Perca fluviatilis) population of Windermere (UK) in 1976. The model predicts biomass overcompensation by juveniles in response to increased adult mortality due to a shift in food-dependent growth and reproduction rates. Considering cannibalism between life stages in the model reinforces this compensatory response due to the release from predation on juveniles at high mortality rates. These model predictions are matched by our analysis of a 60-year time series of scientific monitoring of Windermere perch, which shows that the pathogen outbreak induced a strong decrease in adult biomass and a corresponding increase in juvenile biomass. Age-specific adult fecundity and size at age were higher after than before the disease outbreak, suggesting that the pathogen-induced mortality released adult perch from competition, thereby increasing somatic and reproductive growth. Higher juvenile survival after the pathogen outbreak due to a release from cannibalism likely contributed to the observed biomass overcompensation. Our findings have general implications for predicting population- and community-level responses to increased size-selective mortality caused by exploitation or disease outbreaks.

  6. Precision of recombination frequency estimates after random intermating with finite population sizes.

    PubMed

    Frisch, Matthias; Melchinger, Albrecht E

    2008-01-01

    Random intermating of F2 populations has been suggested for obtaining precise estimates of recombination frequencies between tightly linked loci. In a simulation study, sampling effects due to small population sizes in the intermating generations were found to abolish the advantages of random intermating that were reported in previous theoretical studies considering an infinite population size. We propose a mating scheme for intermating with planned crosses that yields more precise estimates than those under random intermating.

  7. The effect of Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibility on host population size in natural and manipulated systems.

    PubMed Central

    Dobson, Stephen L; Fox, Charles W; Jiggins, Francis M

    2002-01-01

    Obligate, intracellular bacteria of the genus Wolbachia often behave as reproductive parasites by manipulating host reproduction to enhance their vertical transmission. One of these reproductive manipulations, cytoplasmic incompatibility, causes a reduction in egg-hatch rate in crosses between individuals with differing infections. Applied strategies based upon cytoplasmic incompatibility have been proposed for both the suppression and replacement of host populations. As Wolbachia infections occur within a broad range of invertebrates, these strategies are potentially applicable to a variety of medically and economically important insects. Here, we examine the interaction between Wolbachia infection frequency and host population size. We use a model to describe natural invasions of Wolbachia infections, artificial releases of infected hosts and releases of sterile males, as part of a traditional sterile insect technique programme. Model simulations demonstrate the importance of understanding the reproductive rate and intraspecific competition type of the targeted population, showing that releases of sterile or incompatible individuals may cause an undesired increase in the adult number. In addition, the model suggests a novel applied strategy that employs Wolbachia infections to suppress host populations. Releases of Wolbachia-infected hosts can be used to sustain artificially an unstable coexistence of multiple incompatible infections within a host population, allowing the host population size to be reduced, maintained at low levels, or eliminated. PMID:11886634

  8. The 1p13.3 LDL (C)-Associated Locus Shows Large Effect Sizes in Young Populations

    PubMed Central

    Devaney, Joseph M.; Thompson, Paul D.; Visich, Paul S.; Saltarelli, William A.; Gordon, Paul M.; Orkunoglu-Suer, E. Funda; Gordish-Dressman, Heather; Harmon, Brennan T.; Bradbury, Margaret K.; Panchapakesan, Karuna; Khianey, Rahul; Hubal, Monica J.; Clarkson, Priscilla M.; Pescatello, Linda S.; Zoeller, Robert F.; Moyna, Niall M.; Angelopoulos, Theodore J.; Kraus, William E.; Hoffman, Eric P.

    2013-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified polymorphic loci associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors (i. e. serum lipids) in adult populations (42–69 yrs). We hypothesized that younger populations would show a greater relative genetic component due to fewer confounding variables. We examined the influence of 20 GWAS loci associated with serum lipids and insulin metabolism, in a university student cohort (n=548; mean age= 24 yrs), and replicated statistically associated results in a second study cohort of primary school students (n=810, mean age= 11.5 yrs). 19 loci showed no relationship with studied risk factors in young adults. However, the ancestral allele of the rs646776 (SORT1) locus was strongly associated with increased low density lipoprotein cholesterol {LDL (C)} in young adults (TT: 97.6 ± 1.0 mg/dL {n=345}, vs. CT/CC: 87.3 ± 1.0 mg/dL {n=203}; p = 3 × 10−6) and children (TT: 94.0 ± 1.3 mg/dL {n=551}, vs. CT/CC: 84.7 ± 1.4 mg/dL {n=259}; p = 4 × 10−6). This locus is responsible for 3.6% of population variance in young adults and 2.5% of population variance in children. The effect size of the SORT1 locus is considerably higher in young populations (2.5%–4.1%) compared to older subjects (1%). PMID:21297524

  9. The Effective Population Size of Malaria Mosquitoes: Large Impact of Vector Control

    PubMed Central

    Athrey, Giridhar; Hodges, Theresa K.; Reddy, Michael R.; Overgaard, Hans J.; Matias, Abrahan; Ridl, Frances C.; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Caccone, Adalgisa; Slotman, Michel A.

    2012-01-01

    Malaria vectors in sub-Saharan Africa have proven themselves very difficult adversaries in the global struggle against malaria. Decades of anti-vector interventions have yielded mixed results—with successful reductions in transmission in some areas and limited impacts in others. These varying successes can be ascribed to a lack of universally effective vector control tools, as well as the development of insecticide resistance in mosquito populations. Understanding the impact of vector control on mosquito populations is crucial for planning new interventions and evaluating existing ones. However, estimates of population size changes in response to control efforts are often inaccurate because of limitations and biases in collection methods. Attempts to evaluate the impact of vector control on mosquito effective population size (Ne) have produced inconclusive results thus far. Therefore, we obtained data for 13–15 microsatellite markers for more than 1,500 mosquitoes representing multiple time points for seven populations of three important vector species—Anopheles gambiae, An. melas, and An. moucheti—in Equatorial Guinea. These populations were exposed to indoor residual spraying or long-lasting insecticidal nets in recent years. For comparison, we also analyzed data from two populations that have no history of organized vector control. We used Approximate Bayesian Computation to reconstruct their demographic history, allowing us to evaluate the impact of these interventions on the effective population size. In six of the seven study populations, vector control had a dramatic impact on the effective population size, reducing Ne between 55%–87%, the exception being a single An. melas population. In contrast, the two negative control populations did not experience a reduction in effective population size. This study is the first to conclusively link anti-vector intervention programs in Africa to sharply reduced effective population sizes of malaria vectors

  10. Effects of population size and mutation rate on the evolution of mutational robustness.

    PubMed

    Elena, Santiago F; Wilke, Claus O; Ofria, Charles; Lenski, Richard E

    2007-03-01

    It is often assumed that the efficiency of selection for mutational robustness would be proportional to mutation rate and population size, thus being inefficient in small populations. However, Krakauer and Plotkin (2002) hypothesized that selection in small populations would favor robustness mechanisms, such as redundancy, that mask the effect of deleterious mutations. In large populations, by contrast, selection is more effective at removing deleterious mutants and fitness would be improved by eliminating mechanisms that mask the effect of deleterious mutations and thus impede their removal. Here, we test whether these predictions are supported in experiments with evolving populations of digital organisms. Digital organisms are self-replicating programs that inhabit a virtual world inside a computer. Like their organic counterparts, digital organisms mutate, compete, evolve, and adapt by natural selection to their environment. In this study, 160 populations evolved at different combinations of mutation rate and population size. After 10(4) generations, we measured the mutational robustness of the most abundant genotype in each population. Mutational robustness tended to increase with mutation rate and to decline with population size, although the dependence with population size was in part mediated by a negative relationship between fitness and robustness. These results are independent of whether genomes were constrained to their original length or allowed to change in size.

  11. Can adult and juvenile European rabbits be differentiated by their pellet sizes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delibes-Mateos, Miguel; Rouco, Carlos; Villafuerte, Rafael

    2009-03-01

    Recently, a new method for differentiating juvenile and adult rabbits based on faecal pellet size was published. According to this method, pellets >6 mm diameter are inferred to be deposited by adults, while those <6 mm are inferred to be from juveniles or kittens. In this study, we designed a simple experiment to test the accuracy of this methodology. Twelve adult rabbits were housed in individual outdoor cages and their pellets were removed every day for 10 consecutive days. Pellets were separated using a sieve according to their size and counted. Results showed that adult rabbits produce pellets >6 mm diameter in the same proportion as those <6 mm. We also observed a strong influence of the individual rabbit on pellet size; some rabbits produce a high proportion of pellets >6 mm, whereas others deposit mostly pellets <6 mm in size. Our findings demonstrate that pellet size is unsuitable for aging wild rabbits. Field biologists should therefore be cautious when employing the pellet size method of age determination in other wild animals in the absence of validating studies.

  12. Impact of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill on population size and genetic structure of horse flies in Louisiana marshes.

    PubMed

    Husseneder, Claudia; Donaldson, Jennifer R; Foil, Lane D

    2016-01-12

    The greenhead horse fly, Tabanus nigrovittatus Macquart, is frequently found in coastal marshes of the Eastern United States. The greenhead horse fly larvae are top predators in the marsh and thus vulnerable to changes in the environment, and the adults potentially are attracted to polarized surfaces like oil. Therefore, horse fly populations could serve as bioindicators of marsh health and toxic effects of oil intrusion. In this study, we describe the impact of the April 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on tabanid population abundance and genetics as well as mating structure. Horse fly populations were sampled biweekly from oiled and unaffected locations immediately after the oil spill in June 2010 until October 2011. Horse fly abundance estimates showed severe crashes of tabanid populations in oiled areas. Microsatellite genotyping of six pristine and seven oiled populations at ten polymorphic loci detected genetic bottlenecks in six of the oiled populations in association with fewer breeding parents, reduced effective population size, lower number of family clusters and fewer migrants among populations. This is the first study assessing the impact of oil contamination at the level of a top arthropod predator of the invertebrate community in salt marshes.

  13. Impact of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill on population size and genetic structure of horse flies in Louisiana marshes

    PubMed Central

    Husseneder, Claudia; Donaldson, Jennifer R.; Foil, Lane D.

    2016-01-01

    The greenhead horse fly, Tabanus nigrovittatus Macquart, is frequently found in coastal marshes of the Eastern United States. The greenhead horse fly larvae are top predators in the marsh and thus vulnerable to changes in the environment, and the adults potentially are attracted to polarized surfaces like oil. Therefore, horse fly populations could serve as bioindicators of marsh health and toxic effects of oil intrusion. In this study, we describe the impact of the April 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on tabanid population abundance and genetics as well as mating structure. Horse fly populations were sampled biweekly from oiled and unaffected locations immediately after the oil spill in June 2010 until October 2011. Horse fly abundance estimates showed severe crashes of tabanid populations in oiled areas. Microsatellite genotyping of six pristine and seven oiled populations at ten polymorphic loci detected genetic bottlenecks in six of the oiled populations in association with fewer breeding parents, reduced effective population size, lower number of family clusters and fewer migrants among populations. This is the first study assessing the impact of oil contamination at the level of a top arthropod predator of the invertebrate community in salt marshes. PMID:26755069

  14. Impact of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill on population size and genetic structure of horse flies in Louisiana marshes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Husseneder, Claudia; Donaldson, Jennifer R.; Foil, Lane D.

    2016-01-01

    The greenhead horse fly, Tabanus nigrovittatus Macquart, is frequently found in coastal marshes of the Eastern United States. The greenhead horse fly larvae are top predators in the marsh and thus vulnerable to changes in the environment, and the adults potentially are attracted to polarized surfaces like oil. Therefore, horse fly populations could serve as bioindicators of marsh health and toxic effects of oil intrusion. In this study, we describe the impact of the April 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on tabanid population abundance and genetics as well as mating structure. Horse fly populations were sampled biweekly from oiled and unaffected locations immediately after the oil spill in June 2010 until October 2011. Horse fly abundance estimates showed severe crashes of tabanid populations in oiled areas. Microsatellite genotyping of six pristine and seven oiled populations at ten polymorphic loci detected genetic bottlenecks in six of the oiled populations in association with fewer breeding parents, reduced effective population size, lower number of family clusters and fewer migrants among populations. This is the first study assessing the impact of oil contamination at the level of a top arthropod predator of the invertebrate community in salt marshes.

  15. Place and type of meals consumed by adults in medium sized cities

    PubMed Central

    Carús, Juliana Pires; França, Giovanny V A; Barros, Aluísio J D

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To describe the meals consumed by adults living in a midsize city in the South of Brazil, according to the place and preparation. METHODS A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 2012. The two-stage sampling design used the 2010 census tracts as primary sampling units. Data were collected on the place of meals (at home or out) and on the kind of preparations consumed at home (homemade, snacks, take away food) covering the two days prior to the interview, using a standardized questionnaire. RESULTS The study included 2,927 adults, of which 59.0% were female, 60.0% were below 50 years of age and 58.0% were in work. Data were collected on 11,581 meals consumed on the two days preceding the interview, 25.0% were consumed outside of the home at lunchtime, and 10.0% at dinnertime. Considering home meals, most participants reported eating food prepared at home at both lunch and dinner. The majority of out-of-home meals (64.0% for lunch and 61.0% for dinner) were consumed in the work place, mostly based on food prepared at home. Individuals eating out of home were mostly male, young and highly educated. The occupational categories that ate at restaurants more often were trade workers, businessmen, teachers and graduate professionals. CONCLUSIONS Despite the changes in eating patterns described in Brazil in recent years, residents of medium-sized towns still mostly eat at home, consuming homemade food. PMID:24789639

  16. Population Pharmacokinetics of Benznidazole in Adult Patients with Chagas Disease

    PubMed Central

    Aldasoro, E.; Guerrero, L.; Posada, E.; Serret, N.; Mejía, T.; Urbina, J. A.; Gascón, J.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to build a population pharmacokinetic (popPK) model to characterize benznidazole (BNZ) pharmacokinetics in adults with chronic Chagas disease. This study was a prospective, open-label, single-center clinical trial approved by the local ethics committee. Patients received BNZ at 2.5 mg/kg of body weight/12 h (Abarax, Elea Laboratory, Argentina) for 60 days. Plasma BNZ samples were taken several times during the study and analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography with UV-visible detection (HPLC-UV). The popPK analysis was done with NONMEMv.7.3. Demographic and biological data were tested as covariates. Intraindividual, interoccasion, and residual variabilities were modeled. Internal and external validations were completed to assess the robustness of the model. Later on, simulations were performed to generate BNZ concentration-time course profiles for different dosage regimens. A total of 358 plasma BNZ concentrations from 39 patients were included in the analysis. A one-compartment PK model characterized by clearance (CL/F) and the apparent volume of distribution (V/F), with first-order absorption (Ka) and elimination, adequately described the data (CL/F, 1.73 liters/h; V/F, 89.6 liters; and Ka, 1.15 h−1). No covariates were found to be significant for CL/F and V/F. Internal and external validations of the final model showed adequate results. Data from simulations revealed that a dose of 2.5 mg/kg/12 h might lead to overexposure in most patients. A lower dose (2.5 mg/kg/24 h) was able to achieve trough BNZ plasma concentrations within the accepted therapeutic range of 3 to 6 mg/liter. In summary, we developed a population PK model for BNZ in adults with chronic Chagas disease. Dosing simulations showed that a BNZ dose of 2.5 mg/kg/24 h will adequately keep BNZ trough plasma concentrations within the recommended target range for the majority of patients. (This study has been registered at EudraCT under number 2011

  17. Recombination gives a new insight in the effective population size and the history of the old world human populations.

    PubMed

    Melé, Marta; Javed, Asif; Pybus, Marc; Zalloua, Pierre; Haber, Marc; Comas, David; Netea, Mihai G; Balanovsky, Oleg; Balanovska, Elena; Jin, Li; Yang, Yajun; Pitchappan, R M; Arunkumar, G; Parida, Laxmi; Calafell, Francesc; Bertranpetit, Jaume

    2012-01-01

    The information left by recombination in our genomes can be used to make inferences on our recent evolutionary history. Specifically, the number of past recombination events in a population sample is a function of its effective population size (Ne). We have applied a method, Identifying Recombination in Sequences (IRiS), to detect specific past recombination events in 30 Old World populations to infer their Ne. We have found that sub-Saharan African populations have an Ne that is approximately four times greater than those of non-African populations and that outside of Africa, South Asian populations had the largest Ne. We also observe that the patterns of recombinational diversity of these populations correlate with distance out of Africa if that distance is measured along a path crossing South Arabia. No such correlation is found through a Sinai route, suggesting that anatomically modern humans first left Africa through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait rather than through present Egypt.

  18. Small effective population size and genetic homogeneity in the Val Borbera isolate

    PubMed Central

    Colonna, Vincenza; Pistis, Giorgio; Bomba, Lorenzo; Mona, Stefano; Matullo, Giuseppe; Boano, Rosa; Sala, Cinzia; Viganò, Fiammetta; Torroni, Antonio; Achilli, Alessandro; Hooshiar Kashani, Baharak; Malerba, Giovanni; Gambaro, Giovanni; Soranzo, Nicole; Toniolo, Daniela

    2013-01-01

    Population isolates are a valuable resource for medical genetics because of their reduced genetic, phenotypic and environmental heterogeneity. Further, extended linkage disequilibrium (LD) allows accurate haplotyping and imputation. In this study, we use nuclear and mitochondrial DNA data to determine to what extent the geographically isolated population of the Val Borbera valley also presents features of genetic isolation. We performed a comparative analysis of population structure and estimated effective population size exploiting LD data. We also evaluated haplotype sharing through the analysis of segments of autozygosity. Our findings reveal that the valley has features characteristic of a genetic isolate, including reduced genetic heterogeneity and reduced effective population size. We show that this population has been subject to prolonged genetic drift and thus we expect many variants that are rare in the general population to reach significant frequency values in the valley, making this population suitable for the identification of rare variants underlying complex traits. PMID:22713810

  19. Effects of habitat quality and size on extinction in experimental populations.

    PubMed

    Griffen, Blaine D; Drake, John M

    2008-10-07

    Stochastic population theory makes clear predictions about the effects of reproductive potential and carrying capacity on characteristic time-scales of extinction. At the same time, the effects of habitat size and quality on reproduction and regulation have been hotly debated. To trace the causal relationships among these factors, we looked at the effects of habitat size and quality on extinction time in experimental populations of Daphnia magna. Replicate model systems representative of a broad-spectrum consumer foraging on a continuously supplied resource were established under crossed treatments of habitat size (two levels) and habitat quality (three levels) and monitored until eventual extinction of all populations. Using statistically derived estimates of key parameters, we related experimental treatments to persistence time through their effect on carrying capacity and the population growth rate. We found that carrying capacity and the intrinsic rate of increase were each influenced similarly by habitat size and quality, and that carrying capacity and the intrinsic rate of increase were in turn both correlated with time to population extinction. We expected habitat quality to have a greater influence on extinction. However, owing to an unexpected effect of habitat size on reproductive potential, habitat size and quality were similarly important for population persistence. These results support the idea that improving the population growth rate or carrying capacity will reduce extinction risk and demonstrate that both are possible by improving habitat quality or increasing habitat size.

  20. Estimation of the ancestral effective population sizes of African great apes under different selection regimes.

    PubMed

    Schrago, Carlos G

    2014-08-01

    Reliable estimates of ancestral effective population sizes are necessary to unveil the population-level phenomena that shaped the phylogeny and molecular evolution of the African great apes. Although several methods have previously been applied to infer ancestral effective population sizes, an analysis of the influence of the selective regime on the estimates of ancestral demography has not been thoroughly conducted. In this study, three independent data sets under different selective regimes were used were composed to tackle this issue. The results showed that selection had a significant impact on the estimates of ancestral effective population sizes of the African great apes. The inference of the ancestral demography of African great apes was affected by the selection regime. The effects, however, were not homogeneous along the ancestral populations of great apes. The effective population size of the ancestor of humans and chimpanzees was more impacted by the selection regime when compared to the same parameter in the ancestor of humans, chimpanzees and gorillas. Because the selection regime influenced the estimates of ancestral effective population size, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the discrepancy found in previous studies that inferred the ancestral effective population size may be attributable to the differential action of selection on the genes sampled.

  1. Genome size differentiates co-occurring populations of the planktonic diatom Ditylum brightwellii (Bacillariophyta)

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Diatoms are one of the most species-rich groups of eukaryotic microbes known. Diatoms are also the only group of eukaryotic micro-algae with a diplontic life history, suggesting that the ancestral diatom switched to a life history dominated by a duplicated genome. A key mechanism of speciation among diatoms could be a propensity for additional stable genome duplications. Across eukaryotic taxa, genome size is directly correlated to cell size and inversely correlated to physiological rates. Differences in relative genome size, cell size, and acclimated growth rates were analyzed in isolates of the diatom Ditylum brightwellii. Ditylum brightwellii consists of two main populations with identical 18s rDNA sequences; one population is distributed globally at temperate latitudes and the second appears to be localized to the Pacific Northwest coast of the USA. These two populations co-occur within the Puget Sound estuary of WA, USA, although their peak abundances differ depending on local conditions. Results All isolates from the more regionally-localized population (population 2) possessed 1.94 ± 0.74 times the amount of DNA, grew more slowly, and were generally larger than isolates from the more globally distributed population (population 1). The ITS1 sequences, cell sizes, and genome sizes of isolates from New Zealand were the same as population 1 isolates from Puget Sound, but their growth rates were within the range of the slower-growing population 2 isolates. Importantly, the observed genome size difference between isolates from the two populations was stable regardless of time in culture or the changes in cell size that accompany the diatom life history. Conclusions The observed two-fold difference in genome size between the D. brightwellii populations suggests that whole genome duplication occurred within cells of population 1 ultimately giving rise to population 2 cells. The apparent regional localization of population 2 is consistent with a recent

  2. The adaptive significance of population differentiation in offspring size of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa

    PubMed Central

    Leips, Jeff; Helen Rodd, F; Travis, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that density-dependent competition influences the evolution of offspring size. We studied two populations of the least killifish (Heterandria formosa) that differ dramatically in population density; these populations are genetically differentiated for offspring size, and females from both populations produce larger offspring when they experience higher social densities. To look at the influences of population of origin and relative body size on competitive ability, we held females from the high-density population at two different densities to create large and small offspring with the same genetic background. We measured the competitive ability of those offspring in mesocosms that contained either pure or mixed population treatments at either high or low density. High density increased competition, which was most evident in greatly reduced individual growth rates. Larger offspring from the high-density population significantly delayed the onset of maturity of fish from the low-density population. From our results, we infer that competitive conditions in nature have contributed to the evolution of genetically based interpopulation differences in offspring size as well as plasticity in offspring size in response to conspecific density. PMID:23610636

  3. Respiratory pattern in an adult population of dystrophic patients.

    PubMed

    D'Angelo, M G; Romei, M; Lo Mauro, A; Marchi, E; Gandossini, S; Bonato, S; Comi, G P; Magri, F; Turconi, A C; Pedotti, A; Bresolin, N; Aliverti, A

    2011-07-15

    We studied respiratory function and Chest Wall kinematics in a large population of adult patients affected by slow course muscular dystrophies such as Limb-Girdle Muscular Dystrophy (LGMD, n=38), Becker Muscular Dystrophy (BMD, n=20) and Facio-Scapulo Humeral Dystrophy (FSHD, n=30), through standard spirometry and through the Optoelectronic Plethysmography, to measure the thoraco-abdominal motion during Quiet Breathing and Slow Vital Capacity maneuvers. Within the restrictive pulmonary syndrome characterizing LGMD and FSHD, several different thoraco-abdominal patterns compared to those of healthy subjects were present in the more advanced stages of the disease. These differences were present in the seated position, during the execution of a maximal maneuver such as Slow Vital Capacity. A global respiratory (both inspiratory and expiratory) muscle involvement was more pronounced in the LGMD and FSHD than in the BMD patients, and a significant reduction of abdominal contribution in wheelchair bound patients was observed. In conclusion, OEP technique is able to reveal mild initial modifications in the respiratory muscles in FSHD and LGMD patients, which could be helpful for functional and new therapeutic strategy evaluation.

  4. Perceived stress and mortality in a Taiwanese older adult population.

    PubMed

    Vasunilashorn, Sarinnapha; Glei, Dana A; Weinstein, Maxine; Goldman, Noreen

    2013-11-01

    Perceived stress is associated with poor health outcomes including negative affect, increased susceptibility to the common cold and cardiovascular disease; the consequences of perceived stress for mortality, however, have received less attention. This study characterizes the relationship between perceived stress and 11-year mortality in a population of Taiwanese adults aged 53+ years. Using the Survey of Health and Living Status of the Near Elderly and Elderly of Taiwan, we calculated a composite measure of perceived stress based on six items pertaining to the health, financial situation, and occupation of the respondents and their families. Proportional hazard models were used to determine whether perceived stress predicted mortality. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors only, we found that a one standard deviation increase in perceived stress was associated with a 19% increase in all-cause mortality risk during the 11-year follow-up period (hazard ratio, HR = 1.19, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.13-1.26). The relationship was greatly attenuated when perceptions of stress regarding health were excluded, and was not significant after adjusting for medical conditions, mobility limitations and depressive symptoms. We conclude that the association between perceived stress and mortality is explained by an individual's current health; however, our data do not allow us to distinguish between two possible interpretations of this conclusion: (a) the relationship between perceived stress and mortality is spurious, or (b) poor health acts as the mediator.

  5. Population variation and individual maximum size in two leech populations: energy extraction from cannibalism or niche widening?

    PubMed

    Persson, Lennart; Elliott, J Malcolm

    2013-05-01

    The theory of cannibal dynamics predicts a link between population dynamics and individual life history. In particular, increased individual growth has, in both modeling and empirical studies, been shown to result from a destabilization of population dynamics. We used data from a long-term study of the dynamics of two leech (Erpobdella octoculata) populations to test the hypothesis that maximum size should be higher in a cycling population; one of the study populations exhibited a delayed feedback cycle while the other population showed no sign of cyclicity. A hump-shaped relationship between individual mass of 1-year-old leeches and offspring density the previous year was present in both populations. As predicted from the theory, the maximum mass of individuals was much larger in the fluctuating population. In contrast to predictions, the higher growth rate was not related to energy extraction from cannibalism. Instead, the higher individual mass is suggested to be due to increased availability of resources due to a niche widening with increased individual body mass. The larger individual mass in the fluctuating population was related to a stronger correlation between the densities of 1-year-old individuals and 2-year-old individuals the following year in this population. Although cannibalism was the major mechanism regulating population dynamics, its importance was negligible in terms of providing cannibalizing individuals with energy subsequently increasing their fecundity. Instead, the study identifies a need for theoretical and empirical studies on the largely unstudied interplay between ontogenetic niche shifts and cannibalistic population dynamics.

  6. Reductive genome evolution at both ends of the bacterial population size spectrum.

    PubMed

    Batut, Bérénice; Knibbe, Carole; Marais, Gabriel; Daubin, Vincent

    2014-12-01

    Bacterial genomes show substantial variations in size. The smallest bacterial genomes are those of endocellular symbionts of eukaryotic hosts, which have undergone massive genome reduction and show patterns that are consistent with the degenerative processes that are predicted to occur in species with small effective population sizes. However, similar genome reduction is found in some free-living marine cyanobacteria that are characterized by extremely large populations. In this Opinion article, we discuss the different hypotheses that have been proposed to account for this reductive genome evolution at both ends of the bacterial population size spectrum.

  7. Population size, group composition and behavioural ecology of geladas (Theropithecus gelada) and human-gelada conflict in Wonchit Valley, Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Kifle, Zewdu; Belay, Gurja; Bekele, Afework

    2013-11-01

    Primates that live in protected areas are intensively studied; however, those that live outside protected areas are less studied by primatologists. Therefore, the present study was carried out outside protected areas on the endemic gelada (Theropithecus gelada) to estimate the population size and group composition and human-gelada conflict in Wonchit Valley, Ethiopia from August 2008-March 2009. Total count method was used to determine the population size and group composition of geladas. A band of geladas was selected to carry out behavioural research. Data were collected on activity, diet and ranging patterns for one band of geladas using scan samples at 15 min intervals. Data on human-gelada conflict was gathered using questionnaire interview method. The total number of geladas in the study area was 1525. The average size of one-male unit was 16.96. Adult male to adult female sex ratio was 1.00:6.61. The average size of the band was 58.03. Group size ranged from 3 to 220. Geladas spent 65.2% of their time feeding, 16.3% moving, 4.6% resting and 13.9% socializing. The total time spent feeding on grass blades was 83.8% and 11.8% for bulbs and roots. The home range size was 1.5 km2 during the dry season and 0.2 km2 during the wet season. Geladas in the study area caused crop damage and shared pasture and drinking water with livestock. They consume crops during harvesting stage more than the seedling and vegetative stages. The study has immense contribution for the conservation and management of this endemic primate in unprotected areas.

  8. Gaussian process-based Bayesian nonparametric inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies.

    PubMed

    Palacios, Julia A; Minin, Vladimir N

    2013-03-01

    Changes in population size influence genetic diversity of the population and, as a result, leave a signature of these changes in individual genomes in the population. We are interested in the inverse problem of reconstructing past population dynamics from genomic data. We start with a standard framework based on the coalescent, a stochastic process that generates genealogies connecting randomly sampled individuals from the population of interest. These genealogies serve as a glue between the population demographic history and genomic sequences. It turns out that only the times of genealogical lineage coalescences contain information about population size dynamics. Viewing these coalescent times as a point process, estimating population size trajectories is equivalent to estimating a conditional intensity of this point process. Therefore, our inverse problem is similar to estimating an inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity function. We demonstrate how recent advances in Gaussian process-based nonparametric inference for Poisson processes can be extended to Bayesian nonparametric estimation of population size dynamics under the coalescent. We compare our Gaussian process (GP) approach to one of the state-of-the-art Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) methods for estimating population trajectories. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that our method has better accuracy and precision. Next, we analyze two genealogies reconstructed from real sequences of hepatitis C and human Influenza A viruses. In both cases, we recover more believed aspects of the viral demographic histories than the GMRF approach. We also find that our GP method produces more reasonable uncertainty estimates than the GMRF method.

  9. Effective population size of natural populations of Drosophila buzzatii, with a comparative evaluation of nine methods of estimation.

    PubMed

    Barker, J S F

    2011-11-01

    Allozyme and microsatellite data from numerous populations of Drosophila buzzatii have been used (i) to determine to what degree N(e) varies among generations within populations, and among populations, and (ii) to evaluate the congruence of four temporal and five single-sample estimators of N(e) . Effective size of different populations varied over two orders of magnitude, most populations are not temporally stable in genetic composition, and N(e) showed large variation over generations in some populations. Short-term N(e) estimates from the temporal methods were highly correlated, but the smallest estimates were the most precise for all four methods, and the most consistent across methods. Except for one population, N(e) estimates were lower when assuming gene flow than when assuming populations that were closed. However, attempts to jointly estimate N(e) and immigration rate were of little value because the source of migrants was unknown. Correlations among the estimates from the single-sample methods generally were not significant although, as for the temporal methods, estimates were most consistent when they were small. These single-sample estimates of current N(e) are generally smaller than the short-term temporal estimates. Nevertheless, population genetic variation is not being depleted, presumably because of past or ongoing migration. A clearer picture of current and short-term effective population sizes will only follow with better knowledge of migration rates between populations. Different methods are not necessarily estimating the same N(e) , they are subject to different bias, and the biology, demography and history of the population(s) may affect different estimators differently.

  10. Levels of Engagement and Barriers to Physical Activity in a Population of Adults with Learning Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hawkins, Andrew; Look, Roger

    2006-01-01

    This study examined levels of, and barriers to, physical activity in a population of 19 adults with learning disabilities living in community supported accommodation, using diary records and semi-structured interviews with staff. The levels of physical activity were higher in the sample population than previous figures for adults with learning…

  11. Crisis Model for Older Adults: Special Considerations for an Aging Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jungers, Christin M.; Slagel, Leslie

    2009-01-01

    As the U.S. population ages, counselors must begin structuring their interactions to meet the unique needs of older adults, especially in the area of crisis intervention. The purposes of this article are to draw attention to the rapidly growing, often disregarded older population and to introduce the Crisis Model for Older Adults (CM-OA), an…

  12. Finite population size effects in quasispecies models with single-peak fitness landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saakian, David B.; Deem, Michael W.; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2012-04-01

    We consider finite population size effects for Crow-Kimura and Eigen quasispecies models with single-peak fitness landscape. We formulate accurately the iteration procedure for the finite population models, then derive the Hamilton-Jacobi equation (HJE) to describe the dynamic of the probability distribution. The steady-state solution of HJE gives the variance of the mean fitness. Our results are useful for understanding the population sizes of viruses in which the infinite population models can give reliable results for biological evolution problems.

  13. Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker.

    PubMed

    Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

    2012-04-01

    Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species.

  14. Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

    PubMed

    Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

    2011-02-01

    Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

  15. Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods.

    PubMed

    Mutagoma, Mwumvaneza; Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

    2015-10-01

    HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture-recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture-recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998-3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916-2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture-recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture-recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes.

  16. Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

    PubMed

    Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of

  17. Effects of Insecticide Exposure on Movement and Population Size Estimates of Predatory Ground Beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae)

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Population size estimates of arthropod predators and parasitoids may paradoxically increase following insecticide applications. Previous research with ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) suggests such unusual results reflect increased arthropod movement and capture in traps rather than real chang...

  18. Increased Selection Response in Larger Populations. I. Selection for Wing-Tip Height in Drosophila Melanogaster at Three Population Sizes

    PubMed Central

    Weber, K. E.

    1990-01-01

    The effect of population size on selection response was investigated with replicated selection lines of 40, 200 and 1000 selected parents, using Drosophila melanogaster homozygous for the mutant raised. Selection for increased wing-tip height was carried out for 55 generations, with an average selection intensity of 0.6 standard deviation. The rank order of responses in the seven individual lines was significantly in order of population size, and the variance of response among lines showed a significant effect of population size. The final mean responses (selected - controls, +/- standard errors) in the three treatments, in order of increasing population size, were 8.6 +/- 1.8 mils (three small lines), 15.1 +/- 1.3 mils (two medium lines), and 19.8 +/- 1.5 mils (two large lines). The differences between treatments seem to have emerged too rapidly to be the result of mutations, and are probably due mainly to the utilization of existing variation with greater efficiency by selection in larger populations. PMID:2116358

  19. First molar size and wear within and among modern hunter-gatherers and agricultural populations.

    PubMed

    Górka, Katarzyna; Romero, Alejandro; Pérez-Pérez, Alejandro

    2015-08-01

    Apart from reflecting modern human dental variation, differences in dental size among populations provide a means for studying continuous evolutionary processes and their mechanisms. Dental wear, on the other hand, has been widely used to infer dietary adaptations and variability among or within diverse ancient human populations. Few such studies have focused on modern foragers and farmers, however, and diverse methods have been used. This research aimed to apply a single, standardized, and systematic quantitative procedure to measure dental size and dentin exposure in order to analyze differences among several hunter-gatherer and agricultural populations from various environments and geographic origins. In particular, we focused on sexual dimorphism and intergroup differences in the upper and lower first molars. Results indicated no sexual dimorphism in molar size and wear within the studied populations. Despite the great ethnographic variation in subsistence strategies among these populations, our findings suggest that differences in sexual division of labor do not affect dietary wear patterns.

  20. Effects of Overlapping Generations on Linkage Disequilibrium Estimates of Effective Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Waples, Robin S.; Antao, Tiago; Luikart, Gordon

    2014-01-01

    Use of single-sample genetic methods to estimate effective population size has skyrocketed in recent years. Although the underlying models assume discrete generations, they are widely applied to age-structured species. We simulated genetic data for 21 iteroparous animal and plant species to evaluate two untested hypotheses regarding performance of the single-sample method based on linkage disequilibrium (LD): (1) estimates based on single-cohort samples reflect the effective number of breeders in one reproductive cycle (Nb), and (2) mixed-age samples reflect the effective size per generation (Ne). We calculated true Ne and Nb, using the model species’ vital rates, and verified these with individual-based simulations. We show that single-cohort samples should be equally influenced by Nb and Ne and confirm this with simulated results: N^b was a linear (r2 = 0.98) function of the harmonic mean of Ne and Nb. We provide a quantitative bias correction for raw N^b based on the ratio Nb/Ne, which can be estimated from two or three simple life history traits. Bias-adjusted estimates were within 5% of true Nb for all 21 study species and proved robust when challenged with new data. Mixed-age adult samples produced downwardly biased estimates in all species, which we attribute to a two-locus Wahlund effect (mixture LD) caused by combining parents from different cohorts in a single sample. Results from this study will facilitate interpretation of rapidly accumulating genetic estimates in terms of both Ne (which influences long-term evolutionary processes) and Nb (which is more important for understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics and mating systems). PMID:24717176

  1. Temporal variation in population size of European bird species: effects of latitude and marginality of distribution.

    PubMed

    Cuervo, José J; Møller, Anders P

    2013-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, global warming has been shown to affect animal populations in different ways, with southern populations in general suffering more from increased temperatures than northern populations of the same species. However, southern populations are also often marginal populations relative to the entire breeding range, and marginality may also have negative effects on populations. To disentangle the effects of latitude (possibly due to global warming) and marginality on temporal variation in population size, we investigated European breeding bird species across a latitudinal gradient. Population size estimates were regressed on years, and from these regressions we obtained the slope (a proxy for population trend) and the standard error of the estimate (SEE) (a proxy for population fluctuations). The possible relationships between marginality or latitude on one hand and slopes or SEE on the other were tested among populations within species. Potentially confounding factors such as census method, sampling effort, density-dependence, habitat fragmentation and number of sampling years were controlled statistically. Population latitude was positively related to regression slopes independent of marginality, with more positive slopes (i.e., trends) in northern than in southern populations. The degree of marginality was positively related to SEE independent of latitude, with marginal populations showing larger SEE (i.e., fluctuations) than central ones. Regression slopes were also significantly related to our estimate of density-dependence and SEE was significantly affected by the census method. These results are consistent with a scenario in which southern and northern populations of European bird species are negatively affected by marginality, with southern populations benefitting less from global warming than northern populations, thus potentially making southern populations more vulnerable to extinction.

  2. Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Hill, . M.; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.

    2010-01-01

    The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm

  3. A parametric ribcage geometry model accounting for variations among the adult population.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yulong; Cao, Libo; Bai, Zhonghao; Reed, Matthew P; Rupp, Jonathan D; Hoff, Carrie N; Hu, Jingwen

    2016-09-06

    The objective of this study is to develop a parametric ribcage model that can account for morphological variations among the adult population. Ribcage geometries, including 12 pair of ribs, sternum, and thoracic spine, were collected from CT scans of 101 adult subjects through image segmentation, landmark identification (1016 for each subject), symmetry adjustment, and template mesh mapping (26,180 elements for each subject). Generalized procrustes analysis (GPA), principal component analysis (PCA), and regression analysis were used to develop a parametric ribcage model, which can predict nodal locations of the template mesh according to age, sex, height, and body mass index (BMI). Two regression models, a quadratic model for estimating the ribcage size and a linear model for estimating the ribcage shape, were developed. The results showed that the ribcage size was dominated by the height (p=0.000) and age-sex-interaction (p=0.007) and the ribcage shape was significantly affected by the age (p=0.0005), sex (p=0.0002), height (p=0.0064) and BMI (p=0.0000). Along with proper assignment of cortical bone thickness, material properties and failure properties, this parametric ribcage model can directly serve as the mesh of finite element ribcage models for quantifying effects of human characteristics on thoracic injury risks.

  4. 46 CFR 160.171-17 - Approval testing for adult size immersion suit.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... Approval testing for adult size immersion suit. Caution: During each of the in-water tests prescribed in this section, a person ready to render assistance when needed should be near each subject in the water... being immersed in water at 5 °C (41 °F) for a period of one hour, each subject must be able to pick up...

  5. 46 CFR 160.171-17 - Approval testing for adult size immersion suit.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... Approval testing for adult size immersion suit. Caution: During each of the in-water tests prescribed in this section, a person ready to render assistance when needed should be near each subject in the water... being immersed in water at 5 °C (41 °F) for a period of one hour, each subject must be able to pick up...

  6. Correlation of Osteoporosis and Calcium Urolithiasis in Adult Population

    PubMed Central

    Bijelic, Radojka; Milicevic, Snjezana; Balaban, Jagoda

    2016-01-01

    , the share of those who do not have normal findings is higher in the elderly population. Conclusion: Our study has just shown that in adult patients with calcium urolithiasis osteoporosis is more prevalent in older patients and more pronounced in patients with calcium urolithiasis in relation to the population without the same. PMID:26980936

  7. Joint effects of population size and isolation on genetic erosion in fragmented populations: finding fragmentation thresholds for management

    PubMed Central

    Méndez, María; Vögeli, Matthias; Tella, José L; Godoy, José A

    2014-01-01

    Size and isolation of local populations are main parameters of interest when assessing the genetic consequences of habitat fragmentation. However, their relative influence on the genetic erosion of local populations remains unclear. In this study, we first analysed how size and isolation of habitat patches influence the genetic variation of local populations of the Dupont's lark (Chersophilus duponti), an endangered songbird. An information-theoretic approach to model selection allowed us to address the importance of interactions between habitat variables, an aspect seldom considered in fragmentation studies, but which explained up to 65% of the variance in genetic parameters. Genetic diversity and inbreeding were influenced by the size of local populations depending on their degree of isolation, and genetic differentiation was positively related to isolation. We then identified a minimum local population of 19 male territories and a maximum distance of 30 km to the nearest population as thresholds from which genetic erosion becomes apparent. Our results alert on possibly misleading conclusions and suboptimal management recommendations when only additive effects are taken into account and encourage the use of most explanatory but easy-to-measure variables for the evaluation of genetic risks in conservation programmes. PMID:24822084

  8. Estimate of intake of sulfites in the Belgian adult population.

    PubMed

    Vandevijvere, S; Temme, E; Andjelkovic, M; De Wil, M; Vinkx, C; Goeyens, L; Van Loco, J

    2010-08-01

    An exposure assessment was performed to estimate the usual daily intake of sulfites in the Belgian adult population. Food consumption data were retrieved from the national food consumption survey. In a first step, individual food consumption data were multiplied with the maximum permitted use levels for sulfites, expressed as sulphur dioxide, per food group (Tier 2). In a second step, on the basis of a literature review of the occurrence of sulfites in different foods, the results of the Tier 2 exposure assessment and available occurrence data from the control programme of the competent authority, a refined list of foods was drafted for the quantification of sulphite. Quantification of sulphite was performed by a high-performance ion chromatography method with eluent conductivity detector in beers and potato products. Individual food consumption data were then multiplied with the actual average concentrations of sulfite per food group, or the maximum permitted levels in case actual levels were not available (partial Tier 3). Usual intakes were calculated using the Nusser method. The mean intake of sulfites was 0.34 mg kg(-1) bw day(-1) (Tier 2), corresponding to 49% of the acceptable daily intake (ADI) and 0.19 mg kg(-1) bw day(-1), corresponding to 27% of the ADI (partial Tier 3). The food group contributing most to the intake of sulfites was wines. The results showed that the intake of sulfites is likely to be below the ADI in Belgium. However, there are indications that high consumers of wine have an intake around the ADI.

  9. Population structure among octocoral adults and recruits identifies scale dependent patterns of population isolation in The Bahamas

    PubMed Central

    Porto-Hannes, Isabel

    2015-01-01

    Patterns of dispersal and connectivity of the Caribbean gorgonian Antillogorgia elisabethae in The Bahamas were assessed in both adults and recently settled recruits from 13 sites using microsatellite loci. Adult populations along the Little Bahama Bank (LBB) exhibited a clear pattern of isolation by distance (IBD) which described 86% of the variance in pairwise genetic distances. Estimates of dispersal based on the IBD model suggested dispersal distances along the LBB on the order of 100 m. Increasing the spatial scale to include sites separated by open ocean generated an apparent IBD signal but the relationship had a greater slope and explained less of the variance. This relationship with distance reflected both stepping stone based IBD and regional differentiation probably created by ocean currents and barriers to dispersal that are correlated with geographic distance. Analysis of recruits from 4 sites on the LBB from up to 6 years did not detect differences between years nor differences with adult populations. The result suggests that neither selection on recruits nor inter-annual variation in dispersal affected adult population structure. Assignment tests of recruits indicated the most likely sources of the recruits were the local or adjacent populations. Most of the patterning in population structure in the northern Bahamas can be explained by geographic distance and oceanographic connectivity. Recognition of these complex patterns is important in developing management plans for A. elisabethae and in understanding the effects of disturbance to adult populations of A. elisabethae and similar species with limited dispersal. PMID:26157606

  10. Effective population size is positively correlated with levels of adaptive divergence among annual sunflowers.

    PubMed

    Strasburg, Jared L; Kane, Nolan C; Raduski, Andrew R; Bonin, Aurélie; Michelmore, Richard; Rieseberg, Loren H

    2011-05-01

    The role of adaptation in the divergence of lineages has long been a central question in evolutionary biology, and as multilocus sequence data sets have become available for a wide range of taxa, empirical estimates of levels of adaptive molecular evolution are increasingly common. Estimates vary widely among taxa, with high levels of adaptive evolution in Drosophila, bacteria, and viruses but very little evidence of widespread adaptive evolution in hominids. Although estimates in plants are more limited, some recent work has suggested that rates of adaptive evolution in a range of plant taxa are surprisingly low and that there is little association between adaptive evolution and effective population size in contrast to patterns seen in other taxa. Here, we analyze data from 35 loci for six sunflower species that vary dramatically in effective population size. We find that rates of adaptive evolution are positively correlated with effective population size in these species, with a significant fraction of amino acid substitutions driven by positive selection in the species with the largest effective population sizes but little or no evidence of adaptive evolution in species with smaller effective population sizes. Although other factors likely contribute as well, in sunflowers effective population size appears to be an important determinant of rates of adaptive evolution.

  11. Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y. -l; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J. -C; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.; Stokely, C. L.; Whitlock, D.

    2008-01-01

    Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

  12. Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yu-Lin; Horstman, Matthew; Krisko, Paula; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, Mark; Stansbery, Eugene; Stokely, Christopher; Whitlock, David

    Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better-quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (≥1 m and ≥10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of ≥3.3 cm, ≥1 cm, ≥100 µm, and ≥10 µm. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

  13. Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

    PubMed

    Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

    2013-07-01

    The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more

  14. Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species

    PubMed Central

    Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

    2013-01-01

    1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). 2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. 3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. 4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. 5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory

  15. Concurrent habitat and life history influences on effective/census population size ratios in stream-dwelling trout

    PubMed Central

    Belmar-Lucero, Sebastian; Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Scott, Sherylyne; Harbicht, Andrew B; Hutchings, Jeffrey A; Fraser, Dylan J

    2012-01-01

    Lower effective sizes (Ne) than census sizes (N) are routinely documented in natural populations, but knowledge of how multiple factors interact to lower Ne/N ratios is often limited. We show how combined habitat and life-history influences drive a 2.4- to 6.1-fold difference in Ne/N ratios between two pristine brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations occupying streams separated by only 750 m. Local habitat features, particularly drainage area and stream depth, govern trout biomass produced in each stream. They also generate higher trout densities in the shallower stream by favoring smaller body size and earlier age-at-maturity. The combination of higher densities and reduced breeding site availability in the shallower stream likely leads to more competition among breeding trout, which results in greater variance in individual reproductive success and a greater reduction in Ne relative to N. A similar disparity between juvenile or adult densities and breeding habitat availability is reported for other species and hence may also result in divergent Ne/N ratios elsewhere. These divergent Ne/N ratios between adjacent populations are also an instructive reminder for species conservation programs that genetic and demographic parameters may differ dramatically within species. PMID:22822435

  16. Population Size and Suicide in U.S. Cities: A Static and Dynamic Exploration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCall, Patricia L.; Tittle, Charles R.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between city population size and suicide rates rarely has been examined directly, though scholars often assume such a relationship exists based on studies of the association between suicide rates and urbanization (percent of the population living in cities) in various social contexts. In an effort to determine the basic…

  17. People of New Mexico: Size, Growth and Hispanic Population from the 1980 Census. Research Report 482.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, James D.

    New Mexico, while small, is a state of great diversity in terms of size, growth, and Hispanic concentration of population. Data from the 1980 census indicate New Mexico is the 37th largest state with slightly more than 1.3 million persons and is ninth among the states in percentage of population growth. Growth comes from two demographic sources:…

  18. Time and size at metamorphosis related to adult fitness in Ambystoma talpoideum

    SciTech Connect

    Semlitsch, R.D.; Scott, D.E.; Pechmann, J.H.K.

    1988-02-01

    The relationships among timing of metamorphosis, size at metamorphosis, and traits related to adult fitness were studied for 8 yr in the salamander Ambystoma talpoideum at a temporary pond. Among years, the modal time of metamorphosis and mean body size at metamorphosis were positively correlated with the date the pond dried. In years that the pond dried late, one group of larvae metamorphosed well before the pond dried, whereas the other group metamorphosed just before pond drying. Mean body size of late-metamorphosing individuals was not greater than that of individuals metamorphosing early. Early-metamorphosing males and females were larger at first and second reproduction than were late-metamorphosing individuals. Independent of timing of metamorphosis, larger juveniles at metamorphosis were also larger adults at first reproduction. Age at first reproduction for males was not associated with timing of or size at metamorphosis but large early-metamorphosing females reproduced at a younger age than did small early-metamorphosing females. Neither time of metamorphosis nor size at metamorphosis was associated with survival to first reproduction. These results demonstrate a direct relationship between phenotypic variation generated in the larval stage and adult traits closely associated with an individual's fitness.

  19. Reduction of feral cat (Felis catus Linnaeus 1758) colony size following hysterectomy of adult female cats.

    PubMed

    Mendes-de-Almeida, Flavya; Remy, Gabriella L; Gershony, Liza C; Rodrigues, Daniela P; Chame, Marcia; Labarthe, Norma V

    2011-06-01

    The size of urban cat colonies is limited only by the availability of food and shelter; therefore, their population growth challenges all known population control programs. To test a new population control method, a free-roaming feral cat colony at the Zoological Park in the city of Rio de Janeiro was studied, beginning in 2001. The novel method consisted of performing a hysterectomy on all captured female cats over 6 months of age. To estimate the size of the colony and compare population from year to year, a method of capture-mark-release-recapture was used. The aim was to capture as many individuals as possible, including cats of all ages and gender to estimate numbers of cats in all population categories. Results indicated that the feral cat population remained constant from 2001 to 2004. From 2004 to 2008, the hysterectomy program and population estimates were performed every other year (2006 and 2008). The population was estimated to be 40 cats in 2004, 26 in 2006, and 17 cats in 2008. Although pathogens tend to infect more individuals as the population grows older and maintains natural behavior, these results show that free-roaming feral cat colonies could have their population controlled by a biannual program that focuses on hysterectomy of sexually active female cats.

  20. Demographic Demise: The Declining Young Adult Population in New England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gittell, Ross

    2007-01-01

    Young adult workers provide businesses with the dynamic labor force and fresh ideas they need to innovate and grow. With their contributions to cultural, intellectual and social life, young adults also make New England a vibrant and interesting place to live. Young families support local schools and demand a strong educational system. Yet New…

  1. Organ dose conversion coefficients for tube current modulated CT protocols for an adult population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Wanyi; Tian, Xiaoyu; Sahbaee, Pooyan; Zhang, Yakun; Segars, William Paul; Samei, Ehsan

    2016-03-01

    In computed tomography (CT), patient-specific organ dose can be estimated using pre-calculated organ dose conversion coefficients (organ dose normalized by CTDIvol, h factor) database, taking into account patient size and scan coverage. The conversion coefficients have been previously estimated for routine body protocol classes, grouped by scan coverage, across an adult population for fixed tube current modulated CT. The coefficients, however, do not include the widely utilized tube current (mA) modulation scheme, which significantly impacts organ dose. This study aims to extend the h factors and the corresponding dose length product (DLP) to create effective dose conversion coefficients (k factor) database incorporating various tube current modulation strengths. Fifty-eight extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) phantoms were included in this study representing population anatomy variation in clinical practice. Four mA profiles, representing weak to strong mA dependency on body attenuation, were generated for each phantom and protocol class. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate the organ dose. The organ dose and effective dose was further normalized by CTDIvol and DLP to derive the h factors and k factors, respectively. The h factors and k factors were summarized in an exponential regression model as a function of body size. Such a population-based mathematical model can provide a comprehensive organ dose estimation given body size and CTDIvol. The model was integrated into an iPhone app XCATdose version 2, enhancing the 1st version based upon fixed tube current modulation. With the organ dose calculator, physicists, physicians, and patients can conveniently estimate organ dose.

  2. Factors and Mechanisms for Pharmacokinetic Differences between Pediatric Population and Adults

    PubMed Central

    Fernandez, Eva; Perez, Raul; Hernandez, Alfredo; Tejada, Pilar; Arteta, Marta; Ramos, Jose T.

    2011-01-01

    Many physiologic differences between children and adults may result in age-related changes in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. Factors such as gastric pH and emptying time, intestinal transit time, immaturity of secretion and activity of bile and pancreatic fluid among other factors determine the oral bioavailability of pediatric and adult populations. Anatomical, physiological and biochemical characteristics in children also affect the bioavailability of other routes of administration. Key factors explaining differences in drug distribution between the pediatric population and adults are membrane permeability, plasma protein binding and total body water. As far as drug metabolism is concerned, important differences have been found in the pediatric population compared with adults both for phase I and phase II metabolic enzymes. Immaturity of glomerular filtration, renal tubular secretion and tubular reabsorption at birth and their maturation determine the different excretion of drugs in the pediatric population compared to adults. PMID:24310425

  3. When bigger is not better: intraspecific competition for pollination increases with population size in invasive milkweeds.

    PubMed

    Ward, Megan; Johnson, Steven D; Zalucki, Myron P

    2013-04-01

    One of the essential requirements for an introduced plant species to become invasive is an ability to reproduce outside the native range, particularly when initial populations are small. If a reproductive Allee effect is operating, plants in small populations will have reduced reproductive success relative to plants in larger populations. Alternatively, if plants in small populations experience less competition for pollination than those in large populations, they may actually have higher levels of reproductive success than plants in large populations. To resolve this uncertainty, we investigated how the per capita fecundity of plants was affected by population size in three invasive milkweed species. Field surveys of seed production in natural populations of different sizes but similar densities were conducted for three pollinator-dependent invasive species, namely Asclepias curassavica, Gomphocarpus fruticosus and G. physocarpus. Additionally, supplemental hand-pollinations were performed in small and large populations in order to determine whether reproductive output was limited by pollinator activity in these populations. Reproductive Allee effects were not detected in any of the study species. Instead, plants in small populations exhibited remarkably high levels of reproductive output compared to those in large populations. Increased fruit production following supplemental hand-pollinations suggested that the lower reproductive output of naturally pollinated plants in large populations is a consequence of pollen limitation rather than limitation due to abiotic resources. This is consistent with increased intraspecific competition for pollination amongst plants in large populations. It is likely that the invasion of these milkweed species in Australia has been enhanced because plants in small founding populations experience less intraspecific competition for pollinators than those in large populations, and thus have the ability to produce copious amounts of

  4. Slow-fast stochastic diffusion dynamics and quasi-stationarity for diploid populations with varying size.

    PubMed

    Coron, Camille

    2016-01-01

    We are interested in the long-time behavior of a diploid population with sexual reproduction and randomly varying population size, characterized by its genotype composition at one bi-allelic locus. The population is modeled by a 3-dimensional birth-and-death process with competition, weak cooperation and Mendelian reproduction. This stochastic process is indexed by a scaling parameter K that goes to infinity, following a large population assumption. When the individual birth and natural death rates are of order K, the sequence of stochastic processes indexed by K converges toward a new slow-fast dynamics with variable population size. We indeed prove the convergence toward 0 of a fast variable giving the deviation of the population from quasi Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, while the sequence of slow variables giving the respective numbers of occurrences of each allele converges toward a 2-dimensional diffusion process that reaches (0,0) almost surely in finite time. The population size and the proportion of a given allele converge toward a Wright-Fisher diffusion with stochastically varying population size and diploid selection. We insist on differences between haploid and diploid populations due to population size stochastic variability. Using a non trivial change of variables, we study the absorption of this diffusion and its long time behavior conditioned on non-extinction. In particular we prove that this diffusion starting from any non-trivial state and conditioned on not hitting (0,0) admits a unique quasi-stationary distribution. We give numerical approximations of this quasi-stationary behavior in three biologically relevant cases: neutrality, overdominance, and separate niches.

  5. Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.

    2003-01-01

    Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. The problem is illustrated with models for closed and open populations.

  6. Relation of adult size to movements and distribution of smallmouth bass in a central Maine Lake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cole, M.B.; Moring, J.R.

    1997-01-01

    Forty-four smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu of three size-classes were radiotracked in Green Lake, Maine, during summer 1993 (10 June-1 September) to determine whether adult size influenced distribution and movement. Large smallmouth bass (>406 mm) used deep water (>8 m) more often than did small (248-279 mm) or medium-sized (305-356 mm) smallmouth bass during the late summer (15 July-1 September). Large smallmouth bass also were found at middepths (4-8 m) significantly more often than were small individuals during late summer. Small fish used cover more frequently than large ones during early summer (10 June-13 July). Both small and medium-sized individuals were associated with cover more frequently than large smallmouth bass were during the late summer. Small smallmouth bass exhibited significantly smaller summer total ranges than did large individuals, and mean active displacement differed among all three size-classes.

  7. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  8. Using pedigree reconstruction to estimate population size: genotypes are more than individually unique marks

    PubMed Central

    Creel, Scott; Rosenblatt, Elias

    2013-01-01

    Estimates of population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates are difficult to obtain for many species. Noninvasive genetic methods are increasingly used to estimate population size, particularly in elusive species such as large carnivores, which are difficult to count by most other methods. In most such studies, genotypes are treated simply as unique individual identifiers. Here, we develop a new estimator of population size based on pedigree reconstruction. The estimator accounts for individuals that were directly sampled, individuals that were not sampled but whose genotype could be inferred by pedigree reconstruction, and individuals that were not detected by either of these methods. Monte Carlo simulations show that the population estimate is unbiased and precise if sampling is of sufficient intensity and duration. Simulations also identified sampling conditions that can cause the method to overestimate or underestimate true population size; we present and discuss methods to correct these potential biases. The method detected 2–21% more individuals than were directly sampled across a broad range of simulated sampling schemes. Genotypes are more than unique identifiers, and the information about relationships in a set of genotypes can improve estimates of population size. PMID:23762516

  9. Impact characteristics of female children running in adult versus youth shoes of the same size.

    PubMed

    Forrest, Dana; Dufek, Janet S; Mercer, John A

    2012-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if ground reaction forces were influenced by shoe design (adult vs. youth) for female children when running. Subjects (n = 10, 12.0 ± 1.1 years old; 154 ± 4.9 cm; 46.2 ± 14.3 kg; shoe size 3.5-7 youth) were fit with a shoe model available in youth and adult sizes. Subjects ran 10 trials per shoe condition across a force platform placed in the middle of a 9-m runway. Impact force, second maximum force, loading rate, stance time and average vertical ground reaction forces were recorded for each trial. Shoes underwent a mechanical impact test with peak force, peak acceleration, and percent energy returned recorded. Each variable was compared between shoe conditions. From the impact testing, it was determined that peak force, peak acceleration and percent energy return were 7.1%, 7.1%, and 18.9% greater, respectively, for the youth vs. adult shoe (p < .001). From the running tests, it was determined that loading rate was different (p = .009) between shoe conditions whereas impact force, second maximum force, average force and stance time were not different between shoes (p > .01). Young girls had a greater loading rate when running in youth vs. adult shoes even though the shoe size was the same.

  10. Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations

    PubMed Central

    Anufriieva, Elena V.; Shadrin, Nickolai V.

    2014-01-01

    Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, asignificant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuatedbetween 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the paritiesof these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales. PMID:24668656

  11. Population size and cultural evolution in nonindustrial food-producing societies.

    PubMed

    Collard, Mark; Ruttle, April; Buchanan, Briggs; O'Brien, Michael J

    2013-01-01

    Modeling work suggests that population size affects cultural evolution such that larger populations can be expected to have richer and more complex cultural repertoires than smaller populations. Empirical tests of this hypothesis, however, have yielded conflicting results. Here, we report a study in which we investigated whether the subsistence toolkits of small-scale food-producers are influenced by population size in the manner the hypothesis predicts. We applied simple linear and standard multiple regression analysis to data from 40 nonindustrial farming and pastoralist groups to test the hypothesis. Results were consistent with predictions of the hypothesis: both the richness and the complexity of the toolkits of the food-producers were positively and significantly influenced by population size in the simple linear regression analyses. The multiple regression analyses demonstrated that these relationships are independent of the effects of risk of resource failure, which is the other main factor that has been found to influence toolkit richness and complexity in nonindustrial groups. Thus, our study strongly suggests that population size influences cultural evolution in nonindustrial food-producing populations.

  12. Widespread rapid reductions in body size of adult salamanders in response to climate change.

    PubMed

    Caruso, Nicholas M; Sears, Michael W; Adams, Dean C; Lips, Karen R

    2014-06-01

    Reduction in body size is a major response to climate change, yet evidence in globally imperiled amphibians is lacking. Shifts in average population body size could indicate either plasticity in the growth response to changing climates through changes in allocation and energetics, or through selection for decreased size where energy is limiting. We compared historic and contemporary size measurements in 15 Plethodon species from 102 populations (9450 individuals) and found that six species exhibited significant reductions in body size over 55 years. Biophysical models, accounting for actual changes in moisture and air temperature over that period, showed a 7.1-7.9% increase in metabolic expenditure at three latitudes but showed no change in annual duration of activity. Reduced size was greatest at southern latitudes in regions experiencing the greatest drying and warming. Our results are consistent with a plastic response of body size to climate change through reductions in body size as mediated through increased metabolism. These rapid reductions in body size over the past few decades have significance for the susceptibility of amphibians to environmental change, and relevance for whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change in the future.

  13. Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yu-Lin; Matney, Mark; Liou, J.-C.; Hyde, James; Prior, Thomas G.

    The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version -ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 µm and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris popu-lations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input popu-lations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact con-ditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satis-factorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 µm.

  14. Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T.; Matney, Mark

    2010-01-01

    The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

  15. Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Matney, M.; Liou, J.-C.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T. G.

    2010-01-01

    The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

  16. Diphyllobothrium nihonkaiense: wide egg size variation in 32 molecularly confirmed adult specimens from Korea.

    PubMed

    Choi, Seoyun; Cho, Jaeeun; Jung, Bong-Kwang; Kim, Deok-Gyu; Jeon, Sarah Jiyoun; Jeon, Hyeong-Kyu; Eom, Keeseon S; Chai, Jong-Yil

    2015-06-01

    The eggs of Diphyllobothrium nihonkaiense were reported to be smaller than those of the classical Diphyllobothrium latum in general. However, verification using a large number of adult tapeworms is required. We assessed the egg size variation in 32 adult specimens of D. nihonkaiense recovered from Korean patients in 1975-2014. The diagnosis of individual specimens was based on analysis of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase 1 gene sequence. Uterine eggs (n = 10) were obtained from each specimen, and their length and width were measured by micrometry. The results indicated that the egg size of D. nihonkaiense (total number of eggs measured, 320) was widely variable according to individual specimens, 54-76 μm long (mean 64) and 35-58 μm wide (mean 45), with a length-width ratio of 1.32-1.70 (mean 1.46). The worm showing the smallest egg size had a length range of 54-62 μm, whereas the one showing the largest egg size had a length range of 68-76 μm. The two ranges did not overlap, and a similar pattern was observed for the egg width. Mapping of each egg size (n = 320) showed a wide variation in length and width. The widely variable egg size of D. nihonkaiense cannot be used for specific diagnosis of diphyllobothriid tapeworm infections in human patients.

  17. Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size.

    PubMed

    DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar

    2015-01-01

    The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system.

  18. Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk for HIV Using Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

    PubMed Central

    Handcock, Mark S.; Gile, Krista J.; Mar, Corinne M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary The study of hard-to-reach populations presents significant challenges. Typically, a sampling frame is not available, and population members are difficult to identify or recruit from broader sampling frames. This is especially true of populations at high risk for HIV/AIDS. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is often used in such settings with the primary goal of estimating the prevalence of infection. In such populations, the number of people at risk for infection and the number of people infected are of fundamental importance. This article presents a case-study of the estimation of the size of the hard-to-reach population based on data collected through RDS. We study two populations of female sex workers and men-who-have-sex-with-men in El Salvador. The approach is Bayesian and we consider different forms of prior information, including using the UNAIDS population size guidelines for this region. We show that the method is able to quantify the amount of information on population size available in RDS samples. As separate validation, we compare our results to those estimated by extrapolating from a capture–recapture study of El Salvadorian cities. The results of our case-study are largely comparable to those of the capture–recapture study when they differ from the UNAIDS guidelines. Our method is widely applicable to data from RDS studies and we provide a software package to facilitate this. PMID:25585794

  19. When phenology matters: age-size truncation alters population response to trophic mismatch.

    PubMed

    Ohlberger, Jan; Thackeray, Stephen J; Winfield, Ian J; Maberly, Stephen C; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn

    2014-10-22

    Climate-induced shifts in the timing of life-history events are a worldwide phenomenon, and these shifts can de-synchronize species interactions such as predator-prey relationships. In order to understand the ecological implications of altered seasonality, we need to consider how shifts in phenology interact with other agents of environmental change such as exploitation and disease spread, which commonly act to erode the demographic structure of wild populations. Using long-term observational data on the phenology and dynamics of a model predator-prey system (fish and zooplankton in Windermere, UK), we show that age-size truncation of the predator population alters the consequences of phenological mismatch for offspring survival and population abundance. Specifically, age-size truncation reduces intraspecific density regulation due to competition and cannibalism, and thereby amplifies the population sensitivity to climate-induced predator-prey asynchrony, which increases variability in predator abundance. High population variability poses major ecological and economic challenges as it can diminish sustainable harvest rates and increase the risk of population collapse. Our results stress the importance of maintaining within-population age-size diversity in order to buffer populations against phenological asynchrony, and highlight the need to consider interactive effects of environmental impacts if we are to understand and project complex ecological outcomes.

  20. Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

    PubMed Central

    DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

    2015-01-01

    The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

  1. Population regulation in Magellanic penguins: what determines changes in colony size?

    PubMed

    Pozzi, Luciana M; García Borboroglu, Pablo; Boersma, P Dee; Pascual, Miguel A

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds are often studied at individual colonies, but the confounding effects of emigration and mortality processes in open populations may lead to inappropriate conclusions on the mechanisms underlying population changes. Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) colonies of variable population sizes are distributed along the Argentine coastline. In recent decades, several population and distributional changes have occurred, with some colonies declining and others newly established or increasing. We integrated data of eight colonies scattered along ∼600 km in Northern Patagonia (from 41°26´S, 65°01´W to 45°11´S, 66°30´W, Rio Negro and Chubut provinces) and conducted analysis in terms of their growth rates, production of young and of the dependence of those vital rates on colony age, size, and location. We contrasted population trends estimated from abundance data with those derived from population modeling to understand if observed growth rates were attainable under closed population scenarios. Population trends were inversely related to colony size, suggesting a density dependent growth pattern. All colonies located in the north--which were established during the last decades--increased at high rates, with the smallest, recently established colonies growing at the fastest rate. In central-southern Chubut, where colonies are the oldest, the largest breeding aggregations declined, but smaller colonies remained relatively stable. Results provided strong evidence that dispersal played a major role in driving local trends. Breeding success was higher in northern colonies, likely mediated by favorable oceanographic conditions. However, mean foraging distance and body condition of chicks at fledging were influenced by colony size. Recruitment of penguins in the northern area may have been triggered by a combination of density dependence, likely exacerbated by less favorable oceanographic conditions in the southern sector. Our results reaffirm the idea that

  2. Population Regulation in Magellanic Penguins: What Determines Changes in Colony Size?

    PubMed Central

    Pozzi, Luciana M.; Borboroglu, Pablo García; Boersma, P. Dee; Pascual, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds are often studied at individual colonies, but the confounding effects of emigration and mortality processes in open populations may lead to inappropriate conclusions on the mechanisms underlying population changes. Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) colonies of variable population sizes are distributed along the Argentine coastline. In recent decades, several population and distributional changes have occurred, with some colonies declining and others newly established or increasing. We integrated data of eight colonies scattered along ∼ 600 km in Northern Patagonia (from 41°26´S, 65°01´W to 45°11´S, 66°30´W, Rio Negro and Chubut provinces) and conducted analysis in terms of their growth rates, production of young and of the dependence of those vital rates on colony age, size, and location. We contrasted population trends estimated from abundance data with those derived from population modeling to understand if observed growth rates were attainable under closed population scenarios. Population trends were inversely related to colony size, suggesting a density dependent growth pattern. All colonies located in the north—which were established during the last decades—increased at high rates, with the smallest, recently established colonies growing at the fastest rate. In central-southern Chubut, where colonies are the oldest, the largest breeding aggregations declined, but smaller colonies remained relatively stable. Results provided strong evidence that dispersal played a major role in driving local trends. Breeding success was higher in northern colonies, likely mediated by favorable oceanographic conditions. However, mean foraging distance and body condition of chicks at fledging were influenced by colony size. Recruitment of penguins in the northern area may have been triggered by a combination of density dependence, likely exacerbated by less favorable oceanographic conditions in the southern sector. Our results reaffirm the idea

  3. Sampling biases of the BG-sentinel trap with respect to physiology, age, and body size of adult Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae).

    PubMed

    Ball, Tamara S; Ritchie, Scott R

    2010-07-01

    Currently, Aedes aegypti (L.) control strategies are being developed that involve manipulation of the vector at the adult stage (e.g., the use of the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia to shorten the life span of the vector population). These novel strategies demand adult sampling methods to measure changes in population size, structure (age, sex ratio), and, ultimately, the success of the program. Each sampling method presents certain biases. Once these biases are defined, methods used to estimate population size and structure can be calibrated accordingly, resulting in more accurate and complex estimates of the vector population. A series of mark-release-recapture experiments with adult Ae. aegypti were conducted in a large outdoor flight cage and an indoor setting in far north Queensland, Australia. The biases of the BG-Sentinel trap (BGS) were investigated across several categories, as follows: 1) mosquito age; 2) sex; 3) physiological status; and 4) body size. Biases were not detected across age groups or body sizes. A significant bias was detected across physiological groups: nulliparous females were recaptured at a significantly lower rate than all other groups except blood-fed parous females, which were also recaptured at a low rate by the BGS. Males were recaptured at a higher rate than all groups, but only a significant difference in recapture rates was observed between males and nulliparous females. Previous studies show that the BGS is a highly effective tool for Ae. aegypti surveillance. The BGS proves to be a reliable tool in Ae. aegypti surveillance with consistent sampling outcomes. The sampling bias of the BGS is measurable and can be used to generate more accurate estimates of the adult population and its attributes.

  4. Inter-annual variability in spring abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus from the overwintering population in the southeastern Norwegian Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dupont, Nicolas; Bagøien, Espen; Melle, Webjørn

    2017-03-01

    Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea, where it plays a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This paper analyses a 17-year time series, 1996-2012, on C. finmarchicus collected within the Atlantic Water mass along the Svinøy transect in the southeastern Norwegian Sea. We use the spring abundance of adult as a proxy for the size of C. finmarchicus' overwintered population. The inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus in the 200-0 m depth-stratum is assessed while accounting for spring population development to the adult stage represented by day of year for sampling, inter-annual changes in timing of population development, and spatial differences. For the most oceanic stations, a significant inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus was revealed using generalized additive models (GAM). This trend primarily consists in an increase prior to year 2000 and a decrease between years 2000 and ca. 2011. For the stations closer to the coast, the identified inter-annual trend is a decrease during a longer period from the late 90s until ca. 2011. From 2000 to 2011, our estimates suggest a 50% decrease for the most oceanic stations, and as much as an 81% decrease for the stations closer to the coast. In addition the results suggest a consistent change in phenology over the years and the stations. The predicted spring peak of overwintered adult population abundance is suggested to become shorter by 3 days, and the predicted maximum of abundance to take place 4 days earlier over the 17 years of the time-series. The results highlight significant changes in intensity and timing of the overwintered population of a key zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea that may have important implications on the scale of an entire ecosystem.

  5. Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

  6. Accounting for missing data in the estimation of contemporary genetic effective population size (N(e) ).

    PubMed

    Peel, D; Waples, R S; Macbeth, G M; Do, C; Ovenden, J R

    2013-03-01

    Theoretical models are often applied to population genetic data sets without fully considering the effect of missing data. Researchers can deal with missing data by removing individuals that have failed to yield genotypes and/or by removing loci that have failed to yield allelic determinations, but despite their best efforts, most data sets still contain some missing data. As a consequence, realized sample size differs among loci, and this poses a problem for unbiased methods that must explicitly account for random sampling error. One commonly used solution for the calculation of contemporary effective population size (N(e) ) is to calculate the effective sample size as an unweighted mean or harmonic mean across loci. This is not ideal because it fails to account for the fact that loci with different numbers of alleles have different information content. Here we consider this problem for genetic estimators of contemporary effective population size (N(e) ). To evaluate bias and precision of several statistical approaches for dealing with missing data, we simulated populations with known N(e) and various degrees of missing data. Across all scenarios, one method of correcting for missing data (fixed-inverse variance-weighted harmonic mean) consistently performed the best for both single-sample and two-sample (temporal) methods of estimating N(e) and outperformed some methods currently in widespread use. The approach adopted here may be a starting point to adjust other population genetics methods that include per-locus sample size components.

  7. Predicting the size of the progeny mapping population required to positionally clone a gene.

    PubMed

    Dinka, Stephen J; Campbell, Matthew A; Demers, Tyler; Raizada, Manish N

    2007-08-01

    A key frustration during positional gene cloning (map-based cloning) is that the size of the progeny mapping population is difficult to predict, because the meiotic recombination frequency varies along chromosomes. We describe a detailed methodology to improve this prediction using rice (Oryza sativa L.) as a model system. We derived and/or validated, then fine-tuned, equations that estimate the mapping population size by comparing these theoretical estimates to 41 successful positional cloning attempts. We then used each validated equation to test whether neighborhood meiotic recombination frequencies extracted from a reference RFLP map can help researchers predict the mapping population size. We developed a meiotic recombination frequency map (MRFM) for approximately 1400 marker intervals in rice and anchored each published allele onto an interval on this map. We show that neighborhood recombination frequencies (R-map, >280-kb segments) extracted from the MRFM, in conjunction with the validated formulas, better predicted the mapping population size than the genome-wide average recombination frequency (R-avg), with improved results whether the recombination frequency was calculated as genes/cM or kb/cM. Our results offer a detailed road map for better predicting mapping population size in diverse eukaryotes, but useful predictions will require robust recombination frequency maps based on sampling more progeny.

  8. Embryonic IGF2 Expression Is Not Associated with Offspring Size among Populations of a Placental Fish

    PubMed Central

    Schrader, Matthew; Travis, Joseph

    2012-01-01

    In organisms that provision young between fertilization and birth, mothers and their developing embryos are expected to be in conflict over embryonic growth. In mammalian embryos, the expression of Insulin-like growth factor II (IGF2) plays a key role in maternal-fetal interactions and is thought to be a focus of maternal-fetal conflict. Recent studies have suggested that IGF2 is also a focus of maternal-fetal conflict in placental fish in the family Poeciliidae. However, whether the expression of IGF2 influences offspring size, the trait over which mothers and embryos are likely to be in conflict, has not been assessed in a poeciliid. We tested whether embryonic IGF2 expression varied among four populations of a placental poeciliid that display large and consistent differences in offspring size at birth. We found that IGF2 expression varied significantly among embryonic stages with expression being 50% higher in early stage embryos than late stage embryos. There were no significant differences among populations in IGF2 expression; small differences in expression between population pairs with different offspring sizes were comparable in magnitude to those between population pairs with the same offspring sizes. Our results indicate that variation in IGF2 transcript abundance does not contribute to differences in offspring size among H. formosa populations. PMID:23029026

  9. Population size vs. social connectedness - A gene-culture coevolutionary approach to cumulative cultural evolution.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Wakano, Joe Y

    2016-10-01

    It has long been debated if population size is a crucial determinant of the level of culture. While empirical results are mixed, recent theoretical studies suggest that social connectedness between people may be a more important factor than the size of the entire population. These models, however, do not take into account evolutionary responses of learning strategies determining the mode of transmission and innovation and are hence not suitable for predicting the long-term implications of parameters of interest. In the present paper, to address this issue, we provide a gene-culture coevolution model, in which the microscopic learning process of each individual is explicitly described as a continuous-time stochastic process and time allocation to social and individual learning is allowed to evolve. We have found that social connectedness has a larger impact on the equilibrium level of culture than population size especially when connectedness is weak and population size is large. This result, combined with those of previous culture-only models, points to the importance of studying separate effects of population size and internal social structure to better understand spatiotemporal variation in the level of culture.

  10. Variation in the fitness effects of mutations with population density and size in Escherichia coli.

    PubMed

    Cao, Huansheng; Butler, Kevin; Hossain, Mithi; Lewis, James D

    2014-01-01

    The fitness effects of mutations are context specific and depend on both external (e.g., environment) and internal (e.g., cellular stress, genetic background) factors. The influence of population size and density on fitness effects are unknown, despite the central role population size plays in the supply and fixation of mutations. We addressed this issue by comparing the fitness of 92 Keio strains (Escherichia coli K12 single gene knockouts) at comparatively high (1.2×10(7) CFUs/mL) and low (2.5×10(2) CFUs/mL) densities, which also differed in population size (high: 1.2×10(8); low: 1.25×10(3)). Twenty-eight gene deletions (30%) exhibited a fitness difference, ranging from 5 to 174% (median: 35%), between the high and low densities. Our analyses suggest this variation among gene deletions in fitness responses reflected in part both gene orientation and function, of the gene properties we examined (genomic position, length, orientation, and function). Although we could not determine the relative effects of population density and size, our results suggest fitness effects of mutations vary with these two factors, and this variation is gene-specific. Besides being a mechanism for density-dependent selection (r-K selection), the dependence of fitness effects on population density and size has implications for any population that varies in size over time, including populations undergoing evolutionary rescue, species invasions into novel habitats, and cancer progression and metastasis. Further, combined with recent advances in understanding the roles of other context-specific factors in the fitness effects of mutations, our results will help address theoretical and applied biological questions more realistically.

  11. Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish.

    PubMed

    Huijbers, Chantal M; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Debrot, Adolphe O; Jongejans, Eelke

    2013-08-01

    Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived differently by animals belonging to different life stages. In this study, we used a dual approach to understand how stage-structured habitat use and dispersal ability of adults shape the population of a marine fish species. Our study area and focal species provided us with the unique opportunity to study a closed island population. A spatial simulation model was used to estimate dispersal distances along a coral reef that surrounds the island, while contributions of different nursery bays were determined based on otolith stable isotope signatures of adult reef fish. The model showed that adult dispersal away from reef areas near nursery bays is limited. The results further show that different bays contributed unequally to the adult population on the coral reef, with productivity of juveniles in bay nursery habitat determining the degree of mixing among local populations on the reef and with one highly productive area contributing most to the island's reef fish population. The contribution of the coral reef as a nursery habitat was minimal, even though it had a much larger surface area. These findings indicate that the geographic distribution of nursery areas and their productivity are important drivers for the spatial distribution patterns of adults on coral reefs. We suggest that limited dispersal of adults on reefs can lead to a source-sink structure in the adult stage, where reefs close to nurseries replenish more isolated reef areas. Understanding these spatial population dynamics of the demersal phase of marine animals is of major importance for the design and placement of marine reserves, as nursery areas contribute differently to maintain adult populations.

  12. Population Variation Reveals Independent Selection toward Small Body Size in Chinese Debao Pony

    PubMed Central

    Kader, Adiljan; Li, Yan; Dong, Kunzhe; Irwin, David M.; Zhao, Qianjun; He, Xiaohong; Liu, Jianfeng; Pu, Yabin; Gorkhali, Neena Amatya; Liu, Xuexue; Jiang, Lin; Li, Xiangchen; Guan, Weijun; Zhang, Yaping; Wu, Dong-Dong; Ma, Yuehui

    2016-01-01

    Body size, one of the most important quantitative traits under evolutionary scrutiny, varies considerably among species and among populations within species. Revealing the genetic basis underlying this variation is very important, particularly in humans where there is a close relationship with diseases and in domestic animals as the selective patterns are associated with improvements in production traits. The Debao pony is a horse breed with small body size that is unique to China; however, it is unknown whether the size-related candidate genes identified in Western breeds also account for the small body size of the Debao pony. Here, we compared individual horses from the Debao population with other two Chinese horse populations using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified with the Equine SNP 65 Bead Chip. The previously reported size-related candidate gene HMGA2 showed a significant signature for selection, consistent with its role observed in human populations. More interestingly, we found a candidate gene TBX3, which had not been observed in previous studies on horse body size that displayed the highest differentiation and most significant association, and thus likely is the dominating factor for the small stature of the Debao pony. Further comparison between the Debao pony and other breeds of horses from around the world demonstrated that TBX3 was selected independently in the Debao pony, suggesting that there were multiple origins of small stature in the horse. PMID:26637467

  13. Role of media and peers on body change strategies among adult men: is body size important?

    PubMed

    McCabe, Marita P; McGreevy, Shauna J

    2011-01-01

    There has been limited previous research that has examined the role of sociocultural influences on body change strategies among adult men. The current study investigated the role of specific types of messages (encouragement, teasing and modelling) from peers and the media on the strategies to change weight among adult men. Differences were evaluated between 526 men aged from 18 to 60 years from three groups (normal weight, overweight and obese) on body image, body change strategies and messages about their body received from peers and the media. Men were primarily drawn from United States, Australia and Europe. Results showed that messages received by men regarding losing weight or increasing muscle size differed according to weight. Body image and media messages were the strongest predictors of losing weight, whereas body image importance and messages from peers were the strongest predictors of increasing muscles. These findings highlight the importance of sociocultural influences on body change strategies among adult males.

  14. Flow management and fish density regulate salmonid recruitment and adult size in tailwaters across western North America.

    PubMed

    Dibble, Kimberly L; Yackulic, Charles B; Kennedy, Theodore A; Budy, Phaedra

    2015-12-01

    Rainbow and brown trout have been intentionally introduced into tailwaters downriver of dams globally and provide billions of dollars in economic benefits. At the same time, recruitment and maximum length of trout populations in tailwaters often fluctuate erratically, which negatively affects the value of fisheries. Large recruitment events may increase dispersal downriver where other fish species may be a priority (e.g., endangered species). There is an urgent need to understand the drivers of trout population dynamics in tailwaters, in particular the role of flow management. Here, we evaluate how flow, fish density, and other physical factors of the river influence recruitment and mean adult length in tailwaters across western North America, using data from 29 dams spanning 1-19 years. Rainbow trout recruitment was negatively correlated with high annual, summer, and spring flow and dam latitude, and positively correlated with high winter flow, subadult brown trout catch, and reservoir storage capacity. Brown trout recruitment was negatively correlated with high water velocity and daily fluctuations in flow (i.e., hydropeaking) and positively correlated with adult rainbow trout catch. Among these many drivers, rainbow trout recruitment was primarily correlated with high winter flow combined with low spring flow, whereas brown trout recruitment was most related to high water velocity. The mean lengths of adult rainbow and brown trout were influenced by similar flow and catch metrics. Length in both species was positively correlated with high annual flow but declined in tailwaters with high daily fluctuations in flow, high catch rates of conspecifics, and when large cohorts recruited to adult size. Whereas brown trout did not respond to the proportion of water allocated between seasons, rainbow trout length increased in rivers that released more water during winter than in spring. Rainbow trout length was primarily related to high catch rates of conspecifics

  15. Population size estimation in Yellowstone wolves with error-prone noninvasive microsatellite genotypes.

    PubMed

    Creel, Scott; Spong, Goran; Sands, Jennifer L; Rotella, Jay; Zeigle, Janet; Joe, Lawrence; Murphy, Kerry M; Smith, Douglas

    2003-07-01

    Determining population sizes can be difficult, but is essential for conservation. By counting distinct microsatellite genotypes, DNA from noninvasive samples (hair, faeces) allows estimation of population size. Problems arise because genotypes from noninvasive samples are error-prone, but genotyping errors can be reduced by multiple polymerase chain reaction (PCR). For faecal genotypes from wolves in Yellowstone National Park, error rates varied substantially among samples, often above the 'worst-case threshold' suggested by simulation. Consequently, a substantial proportion of multilocus genotypes held one or more errors, despite multiple PCR. These genotyping errors created several genotypes per individual and caused overestimation (up to 5.5-fold) of population size. We propose a 'matching approach' to eliminate this overestimation bias.

  16. Prevalence of Chronic Medical Conditions in Adults with Mental Retardation: Comparison with the General Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kapell, Deborah; Nightingale, Beryle; Rodriguez, Ana; Lee, Joseph H.; Zigman, Warren B.; Schupf, Nicole

    1998-01-01

    A study interviewed caregivers and reviewed medical records of 278 adults with mental retardation with and without Down syndrome. The adults with mental retardation had age-related disorders comparable to those in the general population, but there was an increased frequency of thyroid disorders, nonischemic heart disorders, and sensory impairment.…

  17. The National Blueprint for Promoting Physical Activity in the Mid-Life and Older Adult Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chodzko-Zajko, Wojtek; Sheppard, Lisa; Senior, Jane; Park, Chae-Hee; Mockenhaupt, Robin; Bazzarre, Terry

    2005-01-01

    The National Blueprint: Increasing Physical Activity Among Adults Age 50 and Older was designed to develop a national strategy for the promotion of physically active lifestyles among the mid-life and older adult population. The Blueprint identifies barriers to physical activity in the areas of research, home and community programs, medical…

  18. Host Plant Determines the Population Size of an Obligate Symbiont (Buchnera aphidicola) in Aphids

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yuan-Chen; Cao, Wen-Jie; Zhong, Le-Rong; Godfray, H. Charles J.

    2016-01-01

    Buchnera aphidicola is an obligate endosymbiont that provides aphids with several essential nutrients. Though much is known about aphid-Buchnera interactions, the effect of the host plant on Buchnera population size remains unclear. Here we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) techniques to explore the effects of the host plant on Buchnera densities in the cotton-melon aphid, Aphis gossypii. Buchnera titers were significantly higher in populations that had been reared on cucumber for over 10 years than in populations maintained on cotton for a similar length of time. Aphids collected in the wild from hibiscus and zucchini harbored more Buchnera symbionts than those collected from cucumber and cotton. The effect of aphid genotype on the population size of Buchnera depended on the host plant upon which they fed. When aphids from populations maintained on cucumber or cotton were transferred to novel host plants, host survival and Buchnera population size fluctuated markedly for the first two generations before becoming relatively stable in the third and later generations. Host plant extracts from cucumber, pumpkin, zucchini, and cowpea added to artificial diets led to a significant increase in Buchnera titers in the aphids from the population reared on cotton, while plant extracts from cotton and zucchini led to a decrease in Buchnera titers in the aphids reared on cucumber. Gossypol, a secondary metabolite from cotton, suppressed Buchnera populations in populations from both cotton and cucumber, while cucurbitacin from cucurbit plants led to higher densities. Together, the results suggest that host plants influence Buchnera population processes and that this may provide phenotypic plasticity in host plant use for clonal aphids. PMID:26850304

  19. Host Plant Determines the Population Size of an Obligate Symbiont (Buchnera aphidicola) in Aphids.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yuan-Chen; Cao, Wen-Jie; Zhong, Le-Rong; Godfray, H Charles J; Liu, Xiang-Dong

    2016-04-01

    Buchnera aphidicolais an obligate endosymbiont that provides aphids with several essential nutrients. Though much is known about aphid-Buchnera interactions, the effect of the host plant on Buchnera population size remains unclear. Here we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) techniques to explore the effects of the host plant on Buchnera densities in the cotton-melon aphid, Aphis gossypii Buchneratiters were significantly higher in populations that had been reared on cucumber for over 10 years than in populations maintained on cotton for a similar length of time. Aphids collected in the wild from hibiscus and zucchini harbored more Buchnera symbionts than those collected from cucumber and cotton. The effect of aphid genotype on the population size of Buchnera depended on the host plant upon which they fed. When aphids from populations maintained on cucumber or cotton were transferred to novel host plants, host survival and Buchnera population size fluctuated markedly for the first two generations before becoming relatively stable in the third and later generations. Host plant extracts from cucumber, pumpkin, zucchini, and cowpea added to artificial diets led to a significant increase in Buchnera titers in the aphids from the population reared on cotton, while plant extracts from cotton and zucchini led to a decrease in Buchnera titers in the aphids reared on cucumber. Gossypol, a secondary metabolite from cotton, suppressed Buchnera populations in populations from both cotton and cucumber, while cucurbitacin from cucurbit plants led to higher densities. Together, the results suggest that host plants influence Buchnera population processes and that this may provide phenotypic plasticity in host plant use for clonal aphids.

  20. Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population

    PubMed Central

    Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

    2016-01-01

    The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5–10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase. PMID:27328654

  1. Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population.

    PubMed

    Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

    2016-10-01

    The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5-10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase.

  2. A fitness trade-off between seasons causes multigenerational cycles in phenotype and population size

    PubMed Central

    Betini, Gustavo S; McAdam, Andrew G; Griswold, Cortland K; Norris, D Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Although seasonality is widespread and can cause fluctuations in the intensity and direction of natural selection, we have little information about the consequences of seasonal fitness trade-offs for population dynamics. Here we exposed populations of Drosophila melanogaster to repeated seasonal changes in resources across 58 generations and used experimental and mathematical approaches to investigate how viability selection on body size in the non-breeding season could affect demography. We show that opposing seasonal episodes of natural selection on body size interacted with both direct and delayed density dependence to cause populations to undergo predictable multigenerational density cycles. Our results provide evidence that seasonality can set the conditions for life-history trade-offs and density dependence, which can, in turn, interact to cause multigenerational population cycles. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18770.001 PMID:28164780

  3. Nautilus at Risk – Estimating Population Size and Demography of Nautilus pompilius

    PubMed Central

    Dunstan, Andrew; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Marshall, Justin

    2011-01-01

    The low fecundity, late maturity, long gestation and long life span of Nautilus suggest that this species is vulnerable to over-exploitation. Demand from the ornamental shell trade has contributed to their rapid decline in localized populations. More data from wild populations are needed to design management plans which ensure Nautilus persistence. We used a variety of techniques including capture-mark-recapture, baited remote underwater video systems, ultrasonic telemetry and remotely operated vehicles to estimate population size, growth rates, distribution and demographic characteristics of an unexploited Nautilus pompilius population at Osprey Reef (Coral Sea, Australia). We estimated a small and dispersed population of between 844 and 4467 individuals (14.6–77.4 km−2) dominated by males (83∶17 male∶female) and comprised of few juveniles (<10%).These results provide the first Nautilid population and density estimates which are essential elements for long-term management of populations via sustainable catch models. Results from baited remote underwater video systems provide confidence for their more widespread use to assess efficiently the size and density of exploited and unexploited Nautilus populations worldwide. PMID:21347360

  4. Effective Size and F-Statistics of Subdivided Populations. I. Monoecious Species with Partial Selfing

    PubMed Central

    Wang, J.

    1997-01-01

    Assuming discrete generations and autosomal inheritance involving genes that do not affect viability or reproductive ability, we have derived recurrence equations for the inbreeding coefficient and coancestry between individuals within and among subpopulations for a subdivided monoecious population with arbitrary distributions of male and female gametes per family, variable pollen and seed migration rates, and partial selfing. From the equations, formulas for effective size and expressions for F-statistics are obtained. For the special case of a single unsubdivided population, our equations reduce to the simple expressions derived by previous authors. It is shown that population structure (subdivision and migration) is important in determining the inbreeding coefficient and effective size. Failure to recognize internal structures of populations may lead to considerable bias in predicting effective size. Inbreeding coefficient, coancestry between individuals within and among subpopulations accrue at different and variable rates over initial generations before they converge to the same asymptotic rate of increase. For a given population, the smaller the pollen and seed migration rates, the more generations are required to attain the asymptotic rate and the larger the asymptotic effective size. The equations presented herein can be used for the study of evolutionary biology and conservation genetics. PMID:9258687

  5. Genetic evidence for larger African population size during recent human evolution.

    PubMed

    Relethford, J H; Jorde, L B

    1999-03-01

    Genetic evidence suggests that the long-term average effective size of sub-Saharan Africa is larger than other geographic regions. A method is described that allows estimation of relative long-term regional population sizes. This method is applied to 60 microsatellite DNA loci from a sample of 72 sub-Saharan Africans, 63 East Asians, and 120 Europeans. Average heterozygosity is significantly higher in the sub-Saharan African sample. Expected heterozygosity was computed for each region and locus using a population genetic model based on the null hypothesis of equal long-term population sizes. Average residual heterozygosity is significantly higher in the sub-Saharan African sample, indicating that African population size was larger than other regions during recent human evolution. The best fit of the model is with relative population weights of 0.73 for sub-Saharan Africa, 0.09 for East Asia, and 0.18 for Europe. These results are similar to those obtained using craniometric variation for these three geographic regions. These results, combined with inferences from other genetic studies, support a major role of Africa in the origin of modern humans. It is less clear, however, whether complete African replacement is the most appropriate model. An alternative is an African origin with non-African gene flow. While Africa is an important region in recent human evolution, it is not clear whether the gene pool of our species is completely out of Africa or predominately out of Africa.

  6. Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

    2003-01-01

    Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.

  7. Determining proportions of lunar crater populations by fitting crater size distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Nan; Zhou, Ji-Lin

    2016-12-01

    We determine the proportions of two mixed crater populations distinguishable by size distributions on the Moon. A “multiple power-law” model is built to formulate crater size distribution N(D) ∝ D-α whose slope α varies with crater diameter D. This model is then used to fit size distributions of lunar highland craters and Class 1 craters. The former is characterized by α = 1.17 ± 0.04, 1.88 ± 0.07, 3.17 ± 0.10 and 1.40 ± 0.15 for D ranges ˜ 10 - 49, 49 - 120, 120 - 251 and ˜ 251 - 2500 km, while the latter has a single slope α = 1.96 ± 0.14 for about 10 - 100 km. They are considered as Population 1 and 2 crater size distributions, whose sum is then fitted to the global size distribution of lunar craters with D between 10 and 100 km. Estimated crater densities of Population 1 and 2 are 44 × 10-5 and 5 × 10-5 km-2 respectively, leading to the proportion of the latter being 10%. This result underlines the need for more thoroughly investigating Population 1 craters and their related impactors, the primordial main-belt asteroids, which dominated the late heavy bombardment.

  8. Visual Function and Visual Acuity in an Urban Adult Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katz, J.; Tielsch, J. M.

    1996-01-01

    A survey of 6,850 adults age 40 or over concerning the effects of poor vision found that difficulties with reading or other near-vision activities were the most common complaint. One-fourth reported limitations in activities because of poor vision. Factors associated with loss of visual function were general health status, educational level, and…

  9. Busulfan in infants to adult hematopoietic cell transplant recipients: A population pharmacokinetic model for initial and Bayesian dose personalization

    PubMed Central

    McCune, Jeannine S.; Bemer, Meagan J.; Barrett, Jeffrey S.; Baker, K. Scott; Gamis, Alan S.; Holford, Nicholas H.G.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Personalizing intravenous (IV) busulfan doses to a target plasma concentration at steady state (Css) is an essential component of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We sought to develop a population pharmacokinetic model to predict IV busulfan doses over a wide age spectrum (0.1 – 66 years) that accounts for differences in age and body size. Experimental design A population pharmacokinetic model based on normal fat mass and maturation based on post-menstrual age was built from 12,380 busulfan concentration-time points obtained after IV busulfan administration in 1,610 HCT recipients. Subsequently, simulation results of the initial dose necessary to achieve a target Css with this model were compared with pediatric-only models. Results A two-compartment model with first-order elimination best fit the data. The population busulfan clearance was 12.4 L/h for an adult male with 62kg normal fat mass (equivalent to 70kg total body weight). Busulfan clearance, scaled to body size – specifically normal fat mass, is predicted to be 95% of the adult clearance at 2.5 years post-natal age. With a target Css of 770 ng/mL, a higher proportion of initial doses achieved the therapeutic window with this age- and size-dependent model (72%) compared to dosing recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (57%) or the European Medicines Agency (70%). Conclusion This is the first population pharmacokinetic model developed to predict initial IV busulfan doses and personalize to a target Css over a wide age spectrum, ranging from infants to adults. PMID:24218510

  10. Estimation of the size of a closed population when capture probabilities vary among animals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burnham, K.P.; Overton, W.S.

    1978-01-01

    A model which allows capture probabilities to vary by individuals is introduced for multiple recapture studies n closed populations. The set of individual capture probabilities is modelled as a random sample from an arbitrary probability distribution over the unit interval. We show that the capture frequencies are a sufficient statistic. A nonparametric estimator of population size is developed based on the generalized jackknife; this estimator is found to be a linear combination of the capture frequencies. Finally, tests of underlying assumptions are presented.

  11. Children and Adults Use Physical Size and Numerical Alliances in Third-Party Judgments of Dominance

    PubMed Central

    Lourenco, Stella F.; Bonny, Justin W.; Schwartz, Bari L.

    2016-01-01

    Humans and other social animals interact regularly with conspecifics as part of affiliative groups. Many of these interactions are cooperative, but many others involve competition for resources. Competitive exchanges are often resolved on the basis of dominance relationships, with higher-ranking individuals receiving priority access to desired goods. Although no single cue can establish permanent dominance relationships, there are some cues that predict dominance fairly reliably across context. In the present study, we focused on two such cues relevant to competing groups: (i) the physical sizes of individual members, and (ii) their relative number. Using a social competition task, we examined whether, and how, preschool-aged children and adults used differences in physical size and numerical alliances to judge which of two groups should prevail in a competitive exchange for a desired object. These judgments were made when either physical size or number differed between groups (Experiment 1), and when both were available but pitted against each other (Experiments 1 and 2). Our findings revealed that by 3 years of age, humans use multiple perceptible cues in third-party judgments of dominance. Our findings also revealed that 3-year-olds, like adults, weighted these cues flexibly according to the additional factor of overall group size, with the physical sizes of individuals determining dominance in smaller groups (e.g., 2 vs. 4 characters) and the relative number of individuals determining dominance in larger groups (e.g., 15 vs. 30 characters). Taken together, our findings suggest that a basic formula for determining dominance in competitive exchanges, which weights physical size of individuals and numerical alliances as a function of overall group size, is available to young children and appears fairly stable through to adulthood. PMID:26793158

  12. Linkage Disequilibrium Estimation of Effective Population Size with Immigrants from Divergent Populations: A Case Study on Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson).

    PubMed

    Macbeth, Gilbert Michael; Broderick, Damien; Buckworth, Rik C; Ovenden, Jennifer R

    2013-04-09

    Estimates of genetic effective population size (Ne) using molecular markers are a potentially useful tool for the management of endangered through to commercial species. However, pitfalls are predicted when the effective size is large because estimates require large numbers of samples from wild populations for statistical validity. Our simulations showed that linkage disequilibrium estimates of Ne up to 10,000 with finite confidence limits can be achieved with sample sizes of approximately 5000. This number was deduced from empirical allele frequencies of seven polymorphic microsatellite loci in a commercially harvested fisheries species, the narrow-barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson). As expected, the smallest SD of Ne estimates occurred when low-frequency alleles were excluded. Additional simulations indicated that the linkage disequilibrium method was sensitive to small numbers of genotypes from cryptic species or conspecific immigrants. A correspondence analysis algorithm was developed to detect and remove outlier genotypes that could possibly be inadvertently sampled from cryptic species or nonbreeding immigrants from genetically separate populations. Simulations demonstrated the value of this approach in Spanish mackerel data. When putative immigrants were removed from the empirical data, 95% of the Ne estimates from jacknife resampling were greater than 24,000.

  13. Diminishing Returns of Population Size in the Rate of RNA Virus Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Miralles, Rosario; Moya, Andrés; Elena, Santiago F.

    2000-01-01

    Whenever an asexual viral population evolves by adapting to new environmental conditions, beneficial mutations, the ultimate cause of adaptation, are randomly produced and then fixed in the population. The larger the population size and the higher the mutation rate, the more beneficial mutations can be produced per unit time. With the usually high mutation rate of RNA viruses and in a large enough population, several beneficial mutations could arise at the same time but in different genetic backgrounds, and if the virus is asexual, they will never be brought together through recombination. Thus, the best of these genotypes must outcompete each other on their way to fixation. This competition among beneficial mutations has the effect of slowing the overall rate of adaptation. This phenomenon is known as clonal interference. Clonal interference predicts a speed limit for adaptation as the population size increases. In the present report, by varying the size of evolving vesicular stomatitis virus populations, we found evidence clearly demonstrating this speed limit and thus indicating that clonal interference might be an important factor modulating the rate of adaptation to an in vitro cell system. Several evolutionary and epidemiological implications of the clonal interference model applied to RNA viruses are discussed. PMID:10729131

  14. Minimum sample sizes for population genomics: an empirical study from an Amazonian plant species.

    PubMed

    Nazareno, Alison G; Bemmels, Jordan B; Dick, Christopher W; Lohmann, Lúcia G

    2017-01-12

    High-throughput DNA sequencing facilitates the analysis of large portions of the genome in nonmodel organisms, ensuring high accuracy of population genetic parameters. However, empirical studies evaluating the appropriate sample size for these kinds of studies are still scarce. In this study, we use double-digest restriction-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) to recover thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for two physically isolated populations of Amphirrhox longifolia (Violaceae), a nonmodel plant species for which no reference genome is available. We used resampling techniques to construct simulated populations with a random subset of individuals and SNPs to determine how many individuals and biallelic markers should be sampled for accurate estimates of intra- and interpopulation genetic diversity. We identified 3646 and 4900 polymorphic SNPs for the two populations of A. longifolia, respectively. Our simulations show that, overall, a sample size greater than eight individuals has little impact on estimates of genetic diversity within A. longifolia populations, when 1000 SNPs or higher are used. Our results also show that even at a very small sample size (i.e. two individuals), accurate estimates of FST can be obtained with a large number of SNPs (≥1500). These results highlight the potential of high-throughput genomic sequencing approaches to address questions related to evolutionary biology in nonmodel organisms. Furthermore, our findings also provide insights into the optimization of sampling strategies in the era of population genomics.

  15. Surprising migration and population size dynamics in ancient Iberian brown bears (Ursus arctos)

    PubMed Central

    Valdiosera, Cristina E.; García-Garitagoitia, José Luis; Garcia, Nuria; Doadrio, Ignacio; Thomas, Mark G.; Hänni, Catherine; Arsuaga, Juan-Luis; Barnes, Ian; Hofreiter, Michael; Orlando, Ludovic; Götherström, Anders

    2008-01-01

    The endangered brown bear populations (Ursus arctos) in Iberia have been suggested to be the last fragments of the brown bear population that served as recolonization stock for large parts of Europe during the Pleistocene. Conservation efforts are intense, and results are closely monitored. However, the efforts are based on the assumption that the Iberian bears are a unique unit that has evolved locally for an extended period. We have sequenced mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from ancient Iberian bear remains and analyzed them as a serial dataset, monitoring changes in diversity and occurrence of European haplogroups over time. Using these data, we show that the Iberian bear population has experienced a dynamic, recent evolutionary history. Not only has the population undergone mitochondrial gene flow from other European brown bears, but the effective population size also has fluctuated substantially. We conclude that the Iberian bear population has been a fluid evolutionary unit, developed by gene flow from other populations and population bottlenecks, far from being in genetic equilibrium or isolated from other brown bear populations. Thus, the current situation is highly unusual and the population may in fact be isolated for the first time in its history. PMID:18347332

  16. Stages of change for physical activity in adults from Southern Brazil: a population-based survey

    PubMed Central

    Dumith, Samuel C; Gigante, Denise P; Domingues, Marlos R

    2007-01-01

    Background There is evidence that physical activity (PA) interventions tailored to individual's stages of change (SoC) are more effective in promote behavior change than "one-size-fits-all" interventions. However, only a few researches have investigated these stages towards PA behavior in representative samples of the population. Thus, the purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence and factors associated with the SoC for PA in a probabilistic sample of adults aged 20 years or over. Methods A population-based survey was undertaken in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 2005. An algorithm was applied to evaluate the SoC for PA, and PA was defined as being engaged in moderate-to-vigorous PA for at least 20 minutes on three times per week. The covariates collected in the questionnaire were: sex, age, skin color, marital status, education level, economic status, family income, smoking, body mass index (BMI) and self-reported health status. Data analyses were performed through Poisson and multinomial regression, taking the sampling design into account. Results Face-to-face interviews were applied to 3136 individuals, corresponding to a response rate of 93.5%. The prevalence across the stages was as follows: 38.3% in precontemplation, 13.0% in contemplation, 19.5% in preparation, 5.2% in action and 24.0% in maintenance. The elderly, married, smokers, and those with lower socioeconomic status were less likely to adopt, initiate and maintain regular PA. Conclusion Despite the all benefits of PA, a high proportion of adults from Southern Brazil are physically inactive and do not present intention to engage in regular PA. The profile of those who are inactive but intend to do PA resembles those who are physically active. The findings of the present study can contribute to improve health behaviors and to plan health promotion strategies aimed at increasing the level of PA in the community. PMID:17555603

  17. Interactions between size-structured predator and prey populations: Experimental test and model comparison

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, J.A.; Crowder, L.B. ); Rose, K.A. )

    1993-05-01

    Because predation mortality is often size-dependent, the survival and size structure of prey populations may vary substantially depending on the size structure of the predator assemblage. We tested this hypothesis in a replicated pond experiment in which a bimodal size distribution of young-of-year spot Leiostomus xanthurus was exposed to two sizes of southern flounder Paralichthys lethostigma, each predator size-group present alone or together, at densities providing equal predation pressure. After 3 weeks, we examined cohort survival and size distributions of remaining spot. In the non-predator controls, spot size-frequency distributions were essentially unchanged, and survival of the large- and small-spot cohorts was similar. However, the size distribution of survivors, and the relative survival of large- and small-spot cohorts, differed markedly with the size structure of the predator assemblage. In the presence of small southern flounders, the large-spot cohort survived 4 times better than the small-spot cohort. In the large-flounder-only treatment, small spot survived 2.4 times better than large spot. When both large and small southern flounders were present, large spot had a net advantage, exceeding small spot survival by 2.4 times. We developed an individual-based model of the flounder-spot size-dependent predation interaction based on data from independent laboratory observations on size-based prey profit-ability, and used it to simulate the results of our experimental treatments. Model predictions of spot survival and size distributions agreed well with the pond experimental results when encounter rates were assumed to scale with spot size and density and with southern flounder density. 37 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

  18. The effect of life-history variation on the population size structure of a rocky intertidal snail ( Littorina sitkana)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rochette, Rémy; Dunmall, Karen; Dill, Lawrence M.

    2003-03-01

    On wave-sheltered shores of the northeastern Pacific, the population size structure of Littorina sitkana varies with intertidal height, as larger snails are mostly found only in the upper intertidal. This pattern has been attributed to high predation rates by crabs (and perhaps fish) on large snails inhabiting low-intertidal areas; i.e., large snails are presumed to be rare there simply because predators kill them. In this study we investigate the hypothesis that predation contributes to the shore-level size gradient displayed by L. sitkana by selecting for (or inducing) earlier sexual maturation and reduced somatic growth in low-shore snails relative to high-shore individuals. In the first part of our study, we carried out laboratory dissections, field experiments (mark-release-recapture and caging), and field surveys on a wave-protected shore in Bamfield Inlet, Barkley Sound (British Columbia, Canada). The principal results were: (1) adult survivorship was greater at higher, than at lower, intertidal level, (2) snails displayed a preference for their shore level of origin, (3) immature adults from the high intertidal displayed greater rates of somatic growth relative to immature adults from the low intertidal, and (4) low-shore snails matured at a smaller size than high-shore individuals. In the second part of the study, a large-scale survey showed intra-specific variation in size at sexual maturity (point 4 above) to be relatively consistent over time (winter of 1999 and 2001 for snails from our main study site) and space (13 different sites in winter 2001), although the magnitude of these differences varied greatly from shore to shore. Our results indicate that L. sitkana individuals inhabiting upper and lower parts of their intertidal range allocate resources differently to somatic and gonadal growth, an intra-specific difference that is best interpreted as a response to spatial and size-dependent variation in predation pressure. Taken together, results of

  19. Size of spawning population, residence time, and territory shifts of individuals in the spawning aggregation of a riverine catostomid

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grabowski, T.B.; Isely, J.J.

    2008-01-01

    Little is known about the behavior of individual fish in a spawning aggregation, specifically how long an individual remains in an aggregation. We monitored Moxostoma robustum (Cope) (Robust Redhorse) in a Savannah River spawning aggregation during spring 2004 and 2005 to provide an estimate of the total number of adults and the number of males comprising the aggregation and to determine male residence time and movements within a spawning aggregation. Robust Redhorse were captured using prepostioned grid electrofishers, identified to sex, weighed, measured, and implanted with a passive integrated transponder. Spawning aggregation size was estimated using a multiple census mark-and-recapture procedure. The spawning aggregation seemed to consist of approximately the same number of individuals (82-85) and males (50-56) during both years of this study. Individual males were present for a mean of 3.6 ?? 0.24 days (?? SE) during the 12-day spawning period. The mean distance between successive recaptures of individual males was 15.9 ?? 1.29 m (?? SE). We conclude that males establish spawning territories on a daily basis and are present within the spawning aggregation for at least 3-4 days. The relatively short duration of the aggregation may be the result of an extremely small population of adults. However, the behavior of individuals has the potential to influence population estimates made while fish are aggregated for spawning.

  20. The establishment of tocopherol reference intervals for Hungarian adult population using a validated HPLC method.

    PubMed

    Veres, Gábor; Szpisjak, László; Bajtai, Attila; Siska, Andrea; Klivényi, Péter; Ilisz, István; Földesi, Imre; Vécsei, László; Zádori, Dénes

    2017-02-09

    Evidence suggests that decreased α-tocopherol (the most biologically active substance in the vitamin E group) level can cause neurological symptoms, most likely ataxia. The aim of the current study was to first provide reference intervals for serum tocopherols in the adult Hungarian population with appropriate sample size, recruiting healthy control subjects and neurological patients suffering from conditions without symptoms of ataxia, myopathy or cognitive deficiency. A validated HPLC method applying a diode array detector and rac-tocol as internal standard was utilized for that purpose. Furthermore, serum cholesterol levels were determined as well for data normalization. The calculated 2.5-97.5% reference intervals for α-, β/γ- and δ-tocopherols were 24.62-54.67, 0.81-3.69 and 0.29-1.07 μm, respectively, whereas the tocopherol/cholesterol ratios were 5.11-11.27, 0.14-0.72 and 0.06-0.22 μmol/mmol, respectively. The establishment of these reference intervals may improve the diagnostic accuracy of tocopherol measurements in certain neurological conditions with decreased tocopherol levels. Moreover, the current study draws special attention to the possible pitfalls in the complex process of the determination of reference intervals as well, including the selection of study population, the application of internal standard and method validation and the calculation of tocopherol/cholesterol ratios.

  1. Correlation between diet and gut bacteria in a population of young adults.

    PubMed

    Mayorga Reyes, Lino; González Vázquez, Raquel; Cruz Arroyo, Schahrasad M; Melendez Avalos, Araceli; Reyes Castillo, Pedro A; Chavaro Pérez, David A; Ramos Terrones, Idalia; Ramos Ibáñez, Norma; Rodríguez Magallanes, Magdalena M; Langella, Philippe; Bermúdez Humarán, Luis; Azaola Espinosa, Alejandro

    2016-06-01

    Dietary habits strongly influence gut microbiota. The aim of this study was to compare and correlated the abundance of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes phyla, some representative bacteria of these phyla such as Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron, Prevotella, Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, Clostridium leptum and Bifidobacterium longum as a member of Actinobacteria phylum in young adults with their food intake. Faecal samples used came from lean subjects (BMI = 19.83 ± 0.94 kg/m(2)), overweight (BMI = 27.17 ± 0.51 kg/m(2)) and obese (BMI = 41.33 ± 5.25 kg/m(2)). There were significant differences in total studied gut microbiota between the overweight and lean groups. Members of the Firmicutes phylum, and Bifidobacterium longum, were more abundant in the lean group. The results suggest that diet rich in unsaturated fatty acids and fibre promote an abundant population of beneficial bacteria such as B. longum and Bacteroidetes. However, it has been considered that the results may be biased due to the size of the individuals studied; therefore the results could be only valid for the studied population.

  2. Well-Being in an Adult Swedish Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hansson, Anna; Hilleras, Pernilla; Forsell, Yvonne

    2005-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of this study was to see if earlier findings about factors associated with well-being could be replicated in a large population-based sample in Sweden. To the best of our knowledge, no research on well-being has been conducted on such a large population in a country, which by most standards is regarded as one of the most…

  3. Using maximum likelihood to estimate population size from temporal changes in allele frequencies.

    PubMed Central

    Williamson, E G; Slatkin, M

    1999-01-01

    We develop a maximum-likelihood framework for using temporal changes in allele frequencies to estimate the number of breeding individuals in a population. We use simulations to compare the performance of this estimator to an F-statistic estimator of variance effective population size. The maximum-likelihood estimator had a lower variance and smaller bias. Taking advantage of the likelihood framework, we extend the model to include exponential growth and show that temporal allele frequency data from three or more sampling events can be used to test for population growth. PMID:10353915

  4. Quantifying the Variation in the Effective Population Size Within a Genome

    PubMed Central

    Gossmann, Toni I.; Woolfit, Megan; Eyre-Walker, Adam

    2011-01-01

    The effective population size (Ne) is one of the most fundamental parameters in population genetics. It is thought to vary across the genome as a consequence of differences in the rate of recombination and the density of selected sites due to the processes of genetic hitchhiking and background selection. Although it is known that there is intragenomic variation in the effective population size in some species, it is not known whether this is widespread or how much variation in the effective population size there is. Here, we test whether the effective population size varies across the genome, between protein-coding genes, in 10 eukaryotic species by considering whether there is significant variation in neutral diversity, taking into account differences in the mutation rate between loci by using the divergence between species. In most species we find significant evidence of variation. We investigate whether the variation in Ne is correlated to recombination rate and the density of selected sites in four species, for which these data are available. We find that Ne is positively correlated to recombination rate in one species, Drosophila melanogaster, and negatively correlated to a measure of the density of selected sites in two others, humans and Arabidopsis thaliana. However, much of the variation remains unexplained. We use a hierarchical Bayesian analysis to quantify the amount of variation in the effective population size and show that it is quite modest in all species—most genes have an Ne that is within a few fold of all other genes. Nonetheless we show that this modest variation in Ne is sufficient to cause significant differences in the efficiency of natural selection across the genome, by demonstrating that the ratio of the number of nonsynonymous to synonymous polymorphisms is significantly correlated to synonymous diversity and estimates of Ne, even taking into account the obvious nonindependence between these measures. PMID:21954163

  5. Dissociative Symptoms and Mother's Marital Status in Young Adult Population

    PubMed Central

    Bob, Petr; Selesova, Petra; Raboch, Jiri; Kukla, Lubomir

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Current findings suggest that mother's marital status indicating father's absence or conflicting relationship to father may be specifically related to dissociation and other stress-related symptoms. We have assessed relationships of mother's marital status, dissociative symptoms, and other psychopathological manifestations in a sample of 19 years’ old young adults (N = 364) participating in European longitudinal study (European Longitudinal Study of Parenthood and Childhood). The results show clinically significant manifestations of dissociative symptoms in young adult men whose mothers were fatherless and in women whose mothers were re-married. Other psychopathological symptoms did not reach clinically significant manifestations. The results suggest that significant factor related to high level of dissociative symptoms in men growing in fatherless families might be linked with disturbed and conflicting attachment to a father's figure and pathological dependent attachment to mother. In women dissociative symptoms likely are linked to conflicting relationship between mother and daughter associated with stepfather’ presence in the family. PMID:25590849

  6. Methods used to estimate the size of the owned cat and dog population: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background There are a number of different methods that can be used when estimating the size of the owned cat and dog population in a region, leading to varying population estimates. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review to evaluate the methods that have been used for estimating the sizes of owned cat and dog populations and to assess the biases associated with those methods. A comprehensive, systematic search of seven electronic bibliographic databases and the Google search engine was carried out using a range of different search terms for cats, dogs and population. The inclusion criteria were that the studies had involved owned or pet domestic dogs and/or cats, provided an estimate of the size of the owned dog or cat population, collected raw data on dog and cat ownership, and analysed primary data. Data relating to study methodology were extracted and assessed for biases. Results Seven papers were included in the final analysis. Collection methods used to select participants in the included studies were: mailed surveys using a commercial list of contacts, door to door surveys, random digit dialled telephone surveys, and randomised telephone surveys using a commercial list of numbers. Analytical and statistical methods used to estimate the pet population size were: mean number of dogs/cats per household multiplied by the number of households in an area, human density multiplied by number of dogs per human, and calculations using predictors of pet ownership. Conclusion The main biases of the studies included selection bias, non-response bias, measurement bias and biases associated with length of sampling time. Careful design and planning of studies is a necessity before executing a study to estimate pet populations. PMID:23777563

  7. Grammatical Class Effects Across Impaired Child and Adult Populations

    PubMed Central

    Kambanaros, Maria; Grohmann, Kleanthes K.

    2015-01-01

    The aims of this study are to compare quantitative and qualitative differences for noun/verb retrieval across language-impaired groups, examine naming errors with reference to psycholinguistic models of word processing, and shed light on the nature of the naming deficit as well as determine relevant group commonalities and differences. This includes an attempt to establish whether error types differentiate language-impaired children from adults, to determine effects of psycholinguistic variables on naming accuracies, and to link the results to genetic mechanisms and/or neural circuitry in the brain. A total of 89 (language-)impaired participants took part in this report: 24 adults with acquired aphasia, 20 adults with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder, 31 adults with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, and 14 children with specific language impairment. The results of simultaneous multiple regression analyses for the errors in verb naming compared to the psycholinguistic variables for all language-impaired groups are reported and discussed in relation to models of lexical processing. This discussion will lead to considerations of genetic and/or neurobiological underpinnings: Presence of the noun–verb dissociation in focal and non-focal brain impairment make localization theories redundant, but support for wider neural network involvement.The patterns reported cannot be reduced to any one level of language processing, suggesting multiple interactions at different levels (e.g., receptive vs. expressive language abilities).Semantic-conceptual properties constrain syntactic properties with implications for phonological word form retrieval.Competition needs to be resolved at both conceptual and phonological levels of representation. Moreover, this study may provide a cross-pathological baseline that can be probed further with respect to recent suggestions concerning a reconsideration of open- vs. closed-class items, according to which verbs may actually fall into the

  8. Estimating population size in wastewater-based epidemiology. Valencia metropolitan area as a case study.

    PubMed

    Rico, María; Andrés-Costa, María Jesús; Picó, Yolanda

    2017-02-05

    Wastewater can provide a wealth of epidemiologic data on common drugs consumed and on health and nutritional problems based on the biomarkers excreted into community sewage systems. One of the biggest uncertainties of these studies is the estimation of the number of inhabitants served by the treatment plants. Twelve human urine biomarkers -5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA), acesulfame, atenolol, caffeine, carbamazepine, codeine, cotinine, creatinine, hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ), naproxen, salicylic acid (SA) and hydroxycotinine (OHCOT)- were determined by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to estimate population size. The results reveal that populations calculated from cotinine, 5-HIAA and caffeine are commonly in agreement with those calculated by the hydrochemical parameters. Creatinine is too unstable to be applicable. HCTZ, naproxen, codeine, OHCOT and carbamazepine, under or overestimate the population compared to the hydrochemical population estimates but showed constant results through the weekdays. The consumption of cannabis, cocaine, heroin and bufotenine in Valencia was estimated for a week using different population calculations.

  9. Population structure and effective/census population size ratio in threatened three-spined stickleback populations from an isolated river basin in northwest Spain.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Figueroa, A; Fernández, C; Amaro, R; Hermida, M; San Miguel, E

    2015-08-01

    Variability at 20 microsatellite loci was examined to assess the population genetic structure, gene flow, and effective population size (N(e)) in three populations of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from the upper basin of the Miño River in Galicia, NW Spain, where this species is threatened. The three populations showed similar levels of genetic diversity. There is a significant genetic differentiation between the three populations, but also significant gene flow. N(e) estimates based on linkage disequilibrium yielded values of 355 for the Miño River population and 241 and 311 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively, although we expect that these are overestimates. N(e) estimates based on temporal methods, considering gene flow or not, for the tributaries yielded values of 30-56 and 47-56 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively. Estimated census size (N(c)) for the Rato River was 880 individuals. This yielded a N(e)/N(c) estimate of 3-6 % for temporal estimation of N(e), which is within the empirical range observed in freshwater fishes. We suggest that the three populations analyzed have a sufficient level of genetic diversity with some genetic structure. Additionally, the absence of physical barriers suggests that conservation efforts and monitoring should focus in the whole basin as a unit.

  10. METER-SIZED MOONLET POPULATION IN SATURN'S C RING AND CASSINI DIVISION

    SciTech Connect

    Baillie, Kevin; Colwell, Joshua E.; Esposito, Larry W.; Lewis, Mark C.

    2013-06-01

    Stellar occultations observed by the Cassini Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph reveal the presence of transparent holes a few meters to a few tens of meters in radial extent in otherwise optically thick regions of the C ring and the Cassini Division. We attribute the holes to gravitational disturbances generated by a population of {approx}10 m boulders in the rings that is intermediate in size between the background ring particle size distribution and the previously observed {approx}100 m propeller moonlets in the A ring. The size distribution of these boulders is described by a shallower power-law than the one that describes the ring particle size distribution. The number and size distribution of these boulders could be explained by limited accretion processes deep within Saturn's Roche zone.

  11. Quantitative ultrasound estimates from populations of scatterers with continuous size distributions - Effects of the size estimator algorithm

    PubMed Central

    Oelze, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative ultrasonic techniques using backscatter coefficients (BSCs) may fail to produce physically meaningful estimates of effective scatterer diameter (ESD) when the analysis media contains scatterers of different sizes. In this work, three different estimator algorithms were used to produce estimates of ESD. The performance of the three estimators was compared over different frequency bands using simulations and experiments with physical phantoms. All estimators produced ESD estimates by comparing the estimated BSCs with a scattering model based on the backscattering cross-section of a single spherical fluid scatterer. The first estimator consisted of minimizing the average square deviation of the ratio between the estimated BSCs and the scattering model with both expressed in decibels. The second and third estimators consisted of minimizing the mean square error between the estimated BSCs and a linear transformation of the scattering model with and without considering an intercept, respectively. Simulations were conducted over several analysis bandwidths between 1 and 40 MHz from populations of scatterers with either a uniform size distribution or a distribution based on the inverse cubic of the size. Diameters of the distributions ranged between [25, 100], [25, 50], [50, 100], and [50, 75] μm. Experimental results were obtained from two gelatin phantoms containing Sephadex spheres ranging in diameter from 28 to 130 μm and 70 to 130 μm, respectively, and 5, 7.5, 10, and 13 MHz focused transducers. Significant differences in the performances of the ESD estimator algorithms as a function of the analysis frequency were observed. Specifically, the third estimator exhibited potential to produce physically meaningful ESD estimates even for large ka values when using a single-size scattering model if sufficient analysis bandwidth was available. PMID:23007782

  12. Quantitative ultrasound estimates from populations of scatterers with continuous size distributions: effects of the size estimator algorithm.

    PubMed

    Lavarello, Roberto; Oelze, Michael

    2012-09-01

    Quantitative ultrasonic techniques using backscatter coefficients (BSCs) may fail to produce physically meaningful estimates of effective scatterer diameter (ESD) when the analysis media contains scatterers of different sizes. In this work, three different estimator algorithms were used to produce estimates of ESD. The performance of the three estimators was compared over different frequency bands using simulations and experiments with physical phantoms. All estimators produced ESD estimates by comparing the estimated BSCs with a scattering model based on the backscattering cross section of a single spherical fluid scatterer. The first estimator consisted of minimizing the average square deviation of the logarithmically compressed ratio between the estimated BSCs and the scattering model. The second and third estimators consisted of minimizing the mean square error between the estimated BSCs and a linear transformation of the scattering model with and without considering an intercept, respectively. Simulations were conducted over several analysis bandwidths between 1 and 40 MHz from populations of scatterers with either a uniform size distribution or a distribution based on the inverse cubic of the size. Diameters of the distributions ranged between [25, 100], [25, 50], [50, 100], and [50, 75] μm. Experimental results were obtained from two gelatin phantoms containing cross-linked dextran gel spheres ranging in diameter from 28 to 130 μm and 70 to 130 μm, respectively, and 5-, 7.5-, 10-, and 13-MHz focused transducers. Significant differences in the performances of the ESD estimator algorithms as a function of the analysis frequency were observed. Specifically, the third estimator exhibited potential to produce physically meaningful ESD estimates even for large ka values when using a single-size scattering model if sufficient analysis bandwidth was available.

  13. Dynamics of a stochastic tuberculosis model with constant recruitment and varying total population size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Shi, Ningzhong; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for a tuberculosis model with constant recruitment and varying total population size by incorporating stochastic perturbations. By constructing suitable stochastic Lyapunov functions, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution as well as extinction of the disease to the stochastic system.

  14. Effective size of two feral domestic cat populations (Felis catus L): effect of the mating system.

    PubMed

    Kaeuffer, R; Pontier, D; Devillard, S; Perrin, N

    2004-02-01

    A variety of behavioural traits have substantial effects on the gene dynamics and genetic structure of local populations. The mating system is a plastic trait that varies with environmental conditions in the domestic cat (Felis catus) allowing an intraspecific comparison of the impact of this feature on genetic characteristics of the population. To assess the potential effect of the heterogenity of males' contribution to the next generation on variance effective size, we applied the ecological approach of Nunney & Elam (1994) based upon a demographic and behavioural study, and the genetic 'temporal methods' of Waples (1989) and Berthier et al. (2002) using microsatellite markers. The two cat populations studied were nearly closed, similar in size and survival parameters, but differed in their mating system. Immigration appeared extremely restricted in both cases due to environmental and social constraints. As expected, the ratio of effective size to census number (Ne/N) was higher in the promiscuous cat population (harmonic mean = 42%) than in the polygynous one (33%), when Ne was calculated from the ecological method. Only the genetic results based on Waples' estimator were consistent with the ecological results, but failed to evidence an effect of the mating system. Results based on the estimation of Berthier et al. (2002) were extremely variable, with Ne sometimes exceeding census size. Such low reliability in the genetic results should retain attention for conservation purposes.

  15. Joint Prediction of the Effective Population Size and the Rate of Fixation of Deleterious Mutations.

    PubMed

    Santiago, Enrique; Caballero, Armando

    2016-11-01

    Mutation, genetic drift, and selection are considered the main factors shaping genetic variation in nature. There is a lack, however, of general predictions accounting for the mutual interrelation between these factors. In the context of the background selection model, we provide a set of equations for the joint prediction of the effective population size and the rate of fixation of deleterious mutations, which are applicable both to sexual and asexual species. For a population of N haploid individuals and a model of deleterious mutations with effect s appearing with rate U in a genome L Morgans long, the asymptotic effective population size (Ne) and the average number of generations (T) between consecutive fixations can be approximated by [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] The solution is applicable to Muller's ratchet, providing satisfactory approximations to the rate of accumulation of mutations for a wide range of parameters. We also obtain predictions of the effective size accounting for the expected nucleotide diversity. Predictions for sexual populations allow for outlining the general conditions where mutational meltdown occurs. The equations can be extended to any distribution of mutational effects and the consideration of hotspots of recombination, showing that Ne is rather insensitive and not proportional to changes in N for many combinations of parameters. This could contribute to explain the observed small differences in levels of polymorphism between species with very different census sizes.

  16. Short-Term Genetic Changes: Evaluating Effective Population Size Estimates in a Comprehensively Described Brown Trout (Salmo trutta) Population

    PubMed Central

    Serbezov, Dimitar; Jorde, Per Erik; Bernatchez, Louis; Olsen, Esben Moland; Vøllestad, L. Asbjørn

    2012-01-01

    The effective population size (Ne) is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate in wild populations as it is influenced by a number of parameters that are difficult to delineate in natural systems. The different methods that are used to estimate Ne are affected variously by different processes at the population level, such as the life-history characteristics of the organism, gene flow, and population substructure, as well as by the frequency patterns of genetic markers used and the sampling design. Here, we compare Ne estimates obtained by different genetic methods and from demographic data and elucidate how the estimates are affected by various factors in an exhaustively sampled and comprehensively described natural brown trout (Salmo trutta) system. In general, the methods yielded rather congruent estimates, and we ascribe that to the adequate genotyping and exhaustive sampling. Effects of violating the assumptions of the different methods were nevertheless apparent. In accordance with theoretical studies, skewed allele frequencies would underestimate temporal allele frequency changes and thereby upwardly bias Ne if not accounted for. Overlapping generations and iteroparity would also upwardly bias Ne when applied to temporal samples taken over short time spans. Gene flow from a genetically not very dissimilar source population decreases temporal allele frequency changes and thereby acts to increase estimates of Ne. Our study reiterates the importance of adequate sampling, quantification of life-history parameters and gene flow, and incorporating these data into the Ne estimation. PMID:22466040

  17. The influence of persistent individual differences and age at maturity on effective population size

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

    2011-01-01

    Ratios of effective populations size, Ne, to census population size, N, are used as a measure of genetic drift in populations. Several life-history parameters have been shown to affect these ratios, including mating system and age at sexual maturation. Using a stochastic matrix model, we examine how different levels of persistent individual differences in mating success among males may affect Ne/N, and how this relates to generation time. Individual differences of this type are shown to cause a lower Ne/N ratio than would be expected when mating is independent among seasons. Examining the way in which age at maturity affects Ne/N, we find that both the direction and magnitude of the effect depends on the survival rate of juveniles in the population. In particular, when maturation is delayed, lowered juvenile survival causes higher levels of genetic drift. In addition, predicted shifts in Ne/N with changing age at maturity are shown to be dependent on which of the commonly used definitions of census population size, N, is employed. Our results demonstrate that patterns of mating success, as well as juvenile survival probabilities, have substantial effects on rates of genetic drift. PMID:21436183

  18. Multiple aspects of plasticity in clutch size vary among populations of a globally distributed songbird.

    PubMed

    Westneat, David F; Bókony, Veronika; Burke, Terry; Chastel, Olivier; Jensen, Henrik; Kvalnes, Thomas; Lendvai, Ádám Z; Liker, András; Mock, Douglas; Schroeder, Julia; Schwagmeyer, P L; Sorci, Gabriele; Stewart, Ian R K

    2014-07-01

    Plasticity in life-history characteristics can influence many ecological and evolutionary phenomena, including how invading organisms cope with novel conditions in new locations or how environmental change affects organisms in native locations. Variation in reaction norm attributes is a critical element to understanding plasticity in life history, yet we know relatively little about the ways in which reaction norms vary within and among populations. We amassed data on clutch size from marked females in eight populations of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from North America and Europe. We exploited repeated measures of clutch size to assess both the extent of within-individual phenotypic plasticity and among-individual variation and to test alternative hypotheses about the underlying causes of reaction norm shape, particularly the decline in clutch size with date. Across all populations, females of this multibrooded species altered their clutch size with respect to date, attempt order, and the interaction of date and order, producing a reaction norm in multidimensional environmental space. The reaction norm fits that predicted by a model in which optimal clutch size is driven by a decline with date hatched in the ability of offspring to recruit. Our results do not fit those predicted for other proposed causes of a seasonal decline in clutch size. We also found significant differences between populations in response to date and the date by attempt order interaction. We tested the prediction that the relationship with date should be increasingly negative as breeding season becomes shorter but found steeper declines in clutch size with date in populations with longer seasons, contrary to the prediction. Populations also differed in the level of among-individual variation in reaction norm intercept, but we found no evidence of among-individual variation in reaction norm slope. We show that complex reaction norms in life-history characters exhibit within- and among-population

  19. Size-Structured Population Model with Distributed States in The Recruitment: Approximation and Parameter Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xinyu

    We consider a size-structured population model where individuals may be recruited into the population at different sizes. First and second order finite difference schemes are developed to approximate the solution of the model. The convergence of the approximations to a unique weak solution is proved. We then show that as the distribution of the new recruits become concentrated at the smallest size, the weak solution of the distributed states-at-birth model converges to the weak solution of the classical Sinko-Streifer type size-structured model in the weak* topology. Numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the achievement of the desired accuracy of the two methods for smooth solutions as well as the superior performance of the second-order method in resolving solution-discontinuities. A least-squares method is developed for estimating parameters in a size-structured population model with distributed states-at-birth from field data. The first and second order finite difference schemes for approximating solution of the model are utilized in the least-squares problem. Convergence results for the computed parameters are established. Numerical results demonstrating the efficiency of the technique are provided.

  20. The sexual identity of adult intestinal stem cells controls organ size and plasticity

    PubMed Central

    Hudry, Bruno; Khadayate, Sanjay; Miguel-Aliaga, Irene

    2016-01-01

    SUMMARY Sex differences in physiology and disease susceptibility are commonly attributed to developmental and/or hormonal factors, but there is increasing realisation that cell-intrinsic mechanisms play important and persistent roles1,2. Here we use the Drosophila melanogaster intestine to investigate the nature and significance of cellular sex in an adult somatic organ in vivo. We find that the adult intestinal epithelium is a cellular mosaic of different sex differentiation pathways, and displays extensive sex differences in expression of genes with roles in growth and metabolism. Cell-specific reversals of the sexual identity of adult intestinal stem cells uncover its key roles in controlling organ size, its reproductive plasticity and its response to genetically induced tumours. Unlike previous examples of sexually dimorphic somatic stem cell activity, the sex differences in intestinal stem cell behaviour arise from intrinsic mechanisms, which control cell cycle duration and involve a new doublesex- and fruitless-independent branch of the sex differentiation pathway downstream of transformer. Together, our findings indicate that the plasticity of an adult somatic organ is reversibly controlled by its sexual identity, imparted by a new mechanism that may be active in more tissues than previously recognised. PMID:26887495

  1. Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Earnst, Susan L.; Stehn, R.A.; Platte, Robert; Larned, W.W.; Mallek, E.J.

    2005-01-01

    The Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986a??2003 and 1992a??2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of a??0.9% (95% CI of a??3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206a??3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910a??4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

  2. Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: An example in asynchronously breeding birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, K.A.; Frederick, P.C.; Nichols, J.D.

    2011-01-01

    Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  3. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    PubMed

    Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  4. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

    PubMed Central

    Dunn, Michael J.; Jackson, Jennifer A.; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S.; Briggs, Dirk R.; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M.

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  5. Dispersal, niche breadth and population extinction: colonization ratios predict range size in North American dragonflies.

    PubMed

    McCauley, Shannon J; Davis, Christopher J; Werner, Earl E; Robeson, Michael S

    2014-07-01

    Species' range sizes are shaped by fundamental differences in species' ecological and evolutionary characteristics, and understanding the mechanisms determining range size can shed light on the factors responsible for generating and structuring biological diversity. Moreover, because geographic range size is associated with a species' risk of extinction and their ability to respond to global changes in climate and land use, understanding these mechanisms has important conservation implications. Despite the hypotheses that dispersal behaviour is a strong determinant of species range areas, few data are available to directly compare the relationship between dispersal behaviour and range size. Here, we overcome this limitation by combining data from a multispecies dispersal experiment with additional species-level trait data that are commonly hypothesized to affect range size (e.g. niche breadth, local abundance and body size.). This enables us to examine the relationship between these species-level traits and range size across North America for fifteen dragonfly species. Ten models based on a priori predictions about the relationship between species traits and range size were evaluated and two models were identified as good predictors of species range size. These models indicated that only two species' level traits, dispersal behaviour and niche breadth were strongly related to range size. The evidence from these two models indicated that dragonfly species that disperse more often and further had larger North American ranges. Extinction and colonization dynamics are expected to be a key linkage between dispersal behaviour and range size in dragonflies. To evaluate how extinction and colonization dynamics among dragonflies were related to range size we used an independent data set of extinction and colonization rates for eleven dragonfly species and assessed the relationship between these populations rates and North American range areas for these species. We found a

  6. Status and trends of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2014

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hewitt, David A.; Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Harris, Alta C.

    2015-10-02

    Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, especially for shortnose suckers. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

  7. Increased juvenile predation is not associated with evolved differences in adult brain size in Trinidadian killifish (Rivulus hartii).

    PubMed

    Beston, Shannon M; Broyles, Whitnee; Walsh, Matthew R

    2017-02-01

    Vertebrates exhibit extensive variation in brain size. The long-standing assumption is that this variation is driven by ecologically mediated selection. Recent work has shown that an increase in predator-induced mortality is associated with evolved increases and decreases in brain size. Thus, the manner in which predators induce shifts in brain size remains unclear. Increased predation early in life is a key driver of many adult traits, including life-history and behavioral traits. Such results foreshadow a connection between age-specific mortality and selection on adult brain size. Trinidadian killifish, Rivulus hartii, are found in sites with and without guppies, Poecilia reticulata. The densities of Rivulus drop dramatically in sites with guppies because guppies prey upon juvenile Rivulus. Previous work has shown that guppy predation is associated with the evolution of adult life-history traits in Rivulus. In this study, we compared second-generation laboratory-born Rivulus from sites with and without guppies for differences in brain size and associated trade-offs between brain size and other components of fitness. Despite the large amount of existing research on the importance of early-life events on the evolution of adult traits, and the role of predation on both behavior and brain size, we did not find an association between the presence of guppies and evolutionary shifts in Rivulus brain size. Such results argue that increased rates of juvenile mortality may not alter selection on adult brain size.

  8. Evaluating methods for estimating local effective population size with and without migration.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, Kimberly J; Whitlock, Michael C

    2015-08-01

    Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, evolutionary biology, and conservation biology, yet its estimation can be fraught with difficulties. Several methods to estimate Ne from genetic data have been developed that take advantage of various approaches for inferring Ne . The ability of these methods to accurately estimate Ne , however, has not been comprehensively examined. In this study, we employ seven of the most cited methods for estimating Ne from genetic data (Colony2, CoNe, Estim, MLNe, ONeSAMP, TMVP, and NeEstimator including LDNe) across simulated datasets with populations experiencing migration or no migration. The simulated population demographies are an isolated population with no immigration, an island model metapopulation with a sink population receiving immigrants, and an isolation by distance stepping stone model of populations. We find considerable variance in performance of these methods, both within and across demographic scenarios, with some methods performing very poorly. The most accurate estimates of Ne can be obtained by using LDNe, MLNe, or TMVP; however each of these approaches is outperformed by another in a differing demographic scenario. Knowledge of the approximate demography of population as well as the availability of temporal data largely improves Ne estimates.

  9. Reduced productivity in adult yellowfever mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) populations

    SciTech Connect

    Rodriguez, P.H.; Hamm, W.J.; Garcia, F.; Garcia, M.; Schirf, V.

    1989-04-01

    Male and female Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquitoes of the laboratory strain ROCK were irradiated with 130 mw of argon 514.5 nm laser microbeams for 0.04, 0.25, 0.4, and 0.5 s, respectively. Egg production, percentage hatch, and productivity (average number of adults surviving after 3 wk) were used to assess mutagenic effects. Mortality was high for males in all laser radiation groups and increased with time of exposure. Except for the group treated for 0.25 s, significant reductions in total F1 progeny also were demonstrated for all other experimentals when male parents were exposed to laser radiation. Females showed a high mortality when subjected to 0.4- and 0.5-s laser radiation. No F1 progeny were produced when parental females were exposed for 0.25, 0.4, and 0.5 s. Numbers of F1 progeny from females exposed to 0.04 s of laser radiation were significantly reduced. A comparison of weekly mean number of progeny showed that the important differences in productivity occurred during the first and second week, respectively, when either male or female adult parents were subjected to laser radiation.

  10. Adult hippocampal neurogenesis in natural populations of mammals.

    PubMed

    Amrein, Irmgard

    2015-05-01

    This review will discuss adult hippocampal neurogenesis in wild mammals of different taxa and outline similarities with and differences from laboratory animals. It begins with a review of evidence for hippocampal neurogenesis in various mammals, and shows the similar patterns of age-dependent decline in cell proliferation in wild and domesticated mammals. In contrast, the pool of immature neurons that originate from proliferative activity varies between species, implying a selective advantage for mammals that can make use of a large number of these functionally special neurons. Furthermore, rapid adaptation of hippocampal neurogenesis to experimental challenges appears to be a characteristic of laboratory rodents. Wild mammals show species-specific, rather stable hippocampal neurogenesis, which appears related to demands that characterize the niche exploited by a species rather than to acute events in the life of its members. Studies that investigate adult neurogenesis in wild mammals are not numerous, but the findings of neurogenesis under natural conditions can provide new insights, and thereby also address the question to which cognitive demands neurogenesis may respond during selection.

  11. The Role of Body Size in Mate Selection among African American Young Adults

    PubMed Central

    Simons, Leslie G.; Simons, Ronald L.

    2016-01-01

    A profusion of studies have demonstrated that body size is a major factor in mate selection for both men and women. The particular role played by weight, however, has been subject to some debate, particularly with respect to the types of body sizes deemed most attractive, and scholars have questioned the degree to which body size preferences are constant across groups. In this paper, we drew from two perspectives on this issue, Sexual Strategies Theory and what we termed the cultural variability perspective, and used survey data to examine how body size was associated with both casual dating and serious romantic relationships. We used a United States sample of 386 African American adolescents and young adults between ages 16 and 21, living in the Midwest and Southeast, and who were enrolled in either high school or college. Results showed that overweight women were more likely to report casually dating than women in the thinnest weight category. Body size was not related to dating status among men. Among women, the results suggest stronger support for the cultural variability argument than for Sexual Strategies Theory. Potential explanations for these findings are discussed. PMID:26973377

  12. Health effects of ambient levels of respirable particulate matter (PM) on healthy, young-adult population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaughnessy, William J.; Venigalla, Mohan M.; Trump, David

    2015-12-01

    There is an absence of studies that define the relationship between ambient particulate matter (PM) levels and adverse health outcomes among the young and healthy adult sub-group. In this research, the relationship between exposures to ambient levels of PM in the 10 micron (PM10) and 2.5 micron (PM2.5) size fractions and health outcomes in members of the healthy, young-adult subgroup who are 18-39 years of age was examined. Active duty military personnel populations at three strategically selected military bases in the United States were used as a surrogate to the control group. Health outcome data, which consists of the number of diagnoses for each of nine International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision (ICD-9) categories related to respiratory illness, were derived from outpatient visits at each of the three military bases. Data on ambient concentrations of particulate matter, specifically PM10 and PM2.5, were obtained for these sites. The health outcome data were correlated and regressed with the PM10 and PM2.5 data, and other air quality and weather-related data on a daily and weekly basis for the period 1998 to 2004. Results indicate that at Fort Bliss, which is a US Environmental Protection Agency designated non-attainment area for PM10, a statistically significant association exists between the weekly-averaged number of adverse health effects in the young and healthy adult population and the corresponding weekly-average ambient PM10 concentration. A least squares regression analysis was performed on the Fort Bliss data sets indicated that the health outcome data is related to several environmental parameters in addition to PM10. Overall, the analysis estimates a .6% increase in the weekly rate of emergency room visits for upper respiratory infections for every 10 μg/m3 increase in the weekly-averaged PM10 concentration above the mean. The findings support the development of policy and guidance opportunities that can be developed to mitigate exposures

  13. Reduced size and starvation resistance in adult mosquitoes, Aedes notoscriptus, exposed to predation cues as larvae.

    PubMed

    van Uitregt, Vincent O; Hurst, Timothy P; Wilson, Robbie S

    2012-01-01

    1. Many prey organisms exhibit adaptive phenotypic plasticity in life-history traits that facilitate a better chance of survival in the presence of predators. The evolution of such plastic traits requires that the defensive phenotype incurs a cost in the absence of predation. 2. Model systems that are used to examine predator-induced defences are often organisms with complex life histories that only induce defences during the larval stage. While many studies have detected costs of inducible defences during the larval stage, detecting the costs of larval defences after metamorphosis is also important. 3. We examine the benefits and costs of inducible larval defences in the urban mosquito, Aedes notoscriptus, by rearing them in the presence and absence of predation cues. We compared survival of larvae inducing behavioural defences, when exposed to predation cues, in predation trials with predatory fish Hypseleotris galii to that of larvae reared in the absence predation cues. We also compared life-history traits of predator-exposed larvae to larvae reared in control conditions. 4. Larvae exposed to chemical predation cues limited activity and were able to avoid predation for longer in trials with H. galii. However, predator-exposed larvae suffered retarded larval growth and development, were smaller at metamorphosis and less resistant to starvation as adults. 5. While it is difficult to understand the 'fitness costs' that poorer starvation resistance might confer to adult mosquitoes, it is likely that smaller adult size of predator-exposed individuals would reduce fitness, particularly for females where body size limits the size of blood meal they could take to facilitate egg production. We suggest that the demonstrable costs of inducible defences in mosquito larvae make this a good system for testing theoretical models for the evolutionary maintenance of adaptive phenotypic plasticity.

  14. Does cannibalism of larvae by adults affect settlement and connectivity of mussel populations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porri, Francesca; Jordaan, Tembisa; McQuaid, Christopher D.

    2008-09-01

    Intertidal population dynamics are driven by a complex series of processes, including larval supply and the possibility of larval predation by benthic animals such as filter-feeders. We hypothesised that cannibalism by adults could play a major role in the population connectivity of mussel populations by removing larvae as they attempt to settle in the adult habitat. Specifically, we tested hypotheses that consumption of mussel larvae by adults removes a significant proportion of potential settlers and is influenced by both settlement intensity and tidal state (flooding or ebbing). Predation of mussel larvae by adult mussels was investigated on incoming and ebbing tides during four spring tides by analysing the gut contents of adult Perna perna and Mytilus galloprovincialis collected from the low intertidal mussel zone between October 2005 and January 2006. Consumption rates were then compared with estimates of successful settler densities on natural beds. The results showed that mortality of competent mussel larvae through adult ingestion removes up to 77% a of potential settlers. Rates of larval consumption were highest during months of intense settlement, suggesting that mussels feed opportunistically, filtering a relatively fixed volume of water and removing particles, including larvae, in proportion to their densities in the water. Rates of larviphagy were also higher during receding than incoming tides. We suggest that this is due to changes in larval density or, more probably, in adult filtration efficiency that are related to the state of the tide. Despite significant effects of both tidal state and settlement intensity on rates of larval ingestion, neither had a significant effect on the proportion of potential settlers removed. During settlement more than half of all potential settlers are lost through cannibalism, with potentially serious consequences for population maintenance. The results highlight the paradoxical nature of the evolution of settlement

  15. How to control chaotic behaviour and population size with proportional feedback

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liz, Eduardo

    2010-01-01

    We study the control of chaos in one-dimensional discrete maps as they often occur in modelling population dynamics. For managing the population, we seek to suppress any possible chaotic behavior, leading the system to a stable equilibrium. In this Letter, we make a rigorous analysis of the proportional feedback method under certain conditions fulfilled by a wide family of maps. We show that it is possible to stabilize the chaotic dynamics towards a globally stable positive equilibrium, that can be chosen among a broad range of possible values. In particular, the size of the population can be enhanced by control in form of population reduction. This paradoxical phenomenon is known as the hydra effect, and it has important implications in the design of strategies in such areas as fishing, pest management, and conservation biology.

  16. Signaling among neighboring plants and the development of size inequalities in plant populations

    SciTech Connect

    Ballare, C.L. |; Scopel, A.L. |; Jordan, E.T.; Vierstra, R.D.

    1994-10-11

    Transgenic tobacco plants that express an oat phytochrome gene (phyA) under control of the cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV) 35S promoter and display altered photophysiology were used to test the role of light as a vehicle of information in dominance relationships between neighboring plants. Compared with the isogenic wild type, phyA-overexpressing plants showed dramatically reduced morphological responsivity to changes in the red/far red ratio of the incident light and to the proximity of neighboring plants in spacing experiments. In transgenic canopies an increase in stand density caused the small plants of the population to be rapidly suppressed by their neighbors. In wild-type canopies, plants responded to increased density with large morphological changes, and there appeared to be an inverse relationship between the magnitude of this morphological response and the ranking of the individual plant in the population size hierarchy. In these wild-type populations, size inequality increased only moderately with density within the time frame of the experiments. The results suggest that, in crowded stands, the ability of individual plants to acquire information about their light environment via phytochrome plays a central role in driving architectural changes that, at the population level, delay the development of size differences between neighbors.

  17. Sexual dimorphism in human cranial trait scores: effects of population, age, and body size.

    PubMed

    Garvin, Heather M; Sholts, Sabrina B; Mosca, Laurel A

    2014-06-01

    Sex estimation from the skull is commonly performed by physical and forensic anthropologists using a five-trait scoring system developed by Walker. Despite the popularity of this method, validation studies evaluating its accuracy across a variety of samples are lacking. Furthermore, it remains unclear what other intrinsic or extrinsic variables are related to the expression of these traits. In this study, cranial trait scores and postcranial measurements were collected from four diverse population groups (U.S. Whites, U.S. Blacks, medieval Nubians, and Arikara Native Americans) following Walker's protocols (total n = 499). Univariate and multivariate analyses were utilized to evaluate the accuracy of these traits in sex estimation, and to test for the effects of population, age, and body size on trait expressions. Results revealed significant effects of population on all trait scores. Sample-specific correct sex classification rates ranged from 74% to 94%, with an overall accuracy of 85% for the pooled sample. Classification performance varied among the traits (best for glabella and mastoid scores and worst for nuchal scores). Furthermore, correlations between traits were weak or nonsignificant, suggesting that different factors may influence individual traits. Some traits displayed correlations with age and/or postcranial size that were significant but weak, and within-population analyses did not reveal any consistent relationships between these traits across all groups. These results indicate that neither age nor body size plays a large role in trait expression, and thus does not need to be incorporated into sex estimation methods.

  18. Climate change influenced female population sizes through time across the Indonesian archipelago.

    PubMed

    Guillot, Elsa G; Tumonggor, Meryanne K; Lansing, J Stephen; Sudoyo, Herawati; Cox, Murray P

    2013-01-01

    Lying at the crossroads of Asia and the Pacific world, the Indonesian archipelago hosts one of the world's richest accumulations of cultural, linguistic, and genetic variation. While the role of human migration into and around the archipelago is now known in some detail, other aspects of Indonesia's complex history are less understood. Here, we focus on population size changes from the first settlement of Indonesia nearly 50 kya up to the historic era. We reconstructed the past effective population sizes of Indonesian women using mitochondrial DNA sequences from 2,104 individuals in 55 village communities on four islands spanning the Indonesian archipelago (Bali, Flores, Sumba, and Timor). We found little evidence for large fluctuations in effective population size. Most communities grew slowly during the late Pleistocene, peaked 15-20 kya, and subsequently declined slowly into the Holocene. This unexpected pattern may reflect population declines caused by the flooding of lowland hunter/gatherer habitat during sea-level rises following the last glacial maximum.

  19. Caregiver Abuse of Chicago Chinese Older Adults in a Community-Dwelling Population

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Xin Qi; Li, Ge

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study aimed to examine the prevalence and correlates of elder abuse reported by adult children among U.S Chinese populations. Method A community-based participatory research approach was implemented. A total of 548 Chinese adult children aged 21 years and over participated in this study. Elder abuse reported by adult children was assessed using Caregiver Abuse Screen (CASE). Results This study found a prevalence of 59.8%for elder abuse among 548 adult children. Younger age (r = −0.10, p < .05), higher level of education (r = 0.20, p < .001), higher income (r = 0.14, p < .01), more years in the U.S. (r = 0.12, p < .05), not born in Mainland China (r = −0.13, p < .01), and English-speaking (r = 0.16, p < .001) were positively correlated with elder abuse reported by adult children. Discussion Elder abuse by adult children is prevalent among U.S. Chinese populations. It is necessary for researchers, health care providers and policy makers to put more attention on elder abuse by adult children. Longitudinal research is needed to explore the risk factors associated with elder abuse by adult children. Health care providers should improve detection of elder abuse and support at-risk caregivers. Policy makers may consider cultural sensitive approaches to address elder abuse. PMID:27606358

  20. DNA evidence for historic population size and past ecosystem impacts of gray whales

    PubMed Central

    Alter, S. Elizabeth; Rynes, Eric; Palumbi, Stephen R.

    2007-01-01

    Ecosystem restoration may require returning threatened populations of ecologically pivotal species to near their former abundances, but it is often difficult to estimate historic population size of species that have been heavily exploited. Eastern Pacific gray whales play a key ecological role in their Arctic feeding grounds and are widely thought to have returned to their prewhaling abundance. Recent mortality spikes might signal that the population has reached long-term carrying capacity, but an alternative is that this decline was due to shifting climatic conditions on Arctic feeding grounds. We used a genetic approach to estimate prewhaling abundance of gray whales and report DNA variability at 10 loci that is typical of a population of ≈76,000–118,000 individuals, approximately three to five times more numerous than today's average census size of 22,000. Coalescent simulations indicate these estimates may include the entire Pacific metapopulation, suggesting that our average measurement of ≈96,000 individuals was probably distributed between the eastern and currently endangered western Pacific populations. These levels of genetic variation suggest the eastern population is at most at 28–56% of its historical abundance and should be considered depleted. If used to inform management, this would halve acceptable human-caused mortality for this population from 417 to 208 per year. Potentially profound ecosystem impacts may have resulted from a decline from 96,000 gray whales to the current population. At previous levels, gray whales may have seasonally resuspended 700 million cubic meters of sediment, as much as 12 Yukon Rivers, and provided food to a million sea birds. PMID:17848511

  1. Effect of reference population size and available ancestor genotypes on imputation of Mexican Holstein genotypes.

    PubMed

    García-Ruiz, A; Ruiz-Lopez, F J; Wiggans, G R; Van Tassell, C P; Montaldo, H H

    2015-05-01

    The effects of reference population size and the availability of information from genotyped ancestors on the accuracy of imputation of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) were investigated for Mexican Holstein cattle. Three scenarios for reference population size were examined: (1) a local population of 2,011 genotyped Mexican Holsteins, (2) animals in scenario 1 plus 866 Holsteins in the US genotype database (GDB) with genotyped Mexican daughters, and (3) animals in scenario 1 and all US GDB Holsteins (338,073). Genotypes from 4 chip densities (2 low density, 1 mid density, and 1 high density) were imputed using findhap (version 3) to the 45,195 markers on the mid-density chip. Imputation success was determined by comparing the numbers of SNP with 1 or 2 alleles missing and the numbers of differently predicted SNP (conflicts) among the 3 scenarios. Imputation accuracy improved as chip density and numbers of genotyped ancestors increased, and the percentage of SNP with 1 missing allele was greater than that for 2 missing alleles for all scenarios. The largest numbers of conflicts were found between scenarios 1 and 3. The inclusion of information from direct ancestors (dam or sire) with US GDB genotypes in the imputation of Mexican Holstein genotypes increased imputation accuracy by 1 percentage point for low-density genotypes and by 0.5 percentage points for high-density genotypes, which was about half the gain found with information from all US GDB Holsteins. A larger reference population and the availability of genotyped ancestors improved imputation; animals with genotyped parents in a large reference population had higher imputation accuracy than those with no or few genotyped relatives in a small reference population. For small local populations, including genotypes from other related populations can aid in improving imputation accuracy.

  2. The Estimation of Active Social Network Size of the Iranian Population

    PubMed Central

    Rastegari, Azam; Haji-Maghsoudi, Saiedeh; Haghdoost, Aliakbar; Shatti, Mohsen; Tarjoman, Termeh; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: The size of active network (C) of Iranian population is a very important parameter to estimate the size of unknown population using Network Scale Up (NSU) technique. However, there is little information about this parameter not only in Iran but also in other countries in Middle East region. Based on these needs, the aim of this paper is to estimate C for the Iranian population. Methods: Based on available national statistics, 23 reference groups, with known population sizes were selected. Using multistage sampling method, 7454 individuals were recruited randomly around the country. We asked from our samples how many people they knew from each of the reference groups. Using NSU formulae, we maximized the goodness of fit of our estimation about the size of the reference groups by fitting the best C. However, the final C was set by excluding some of the reference groups with no added information; these inappropriate groups were selected by two techniques; regression, and ratio based approaches. Results: Applying regression and ratio based approaches the estimated C was 308 and 380 respectively. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the real and estimated size of reference groups (based on our C) in both methods was above 0.95. However, results of ratio based had better performance. We saw that the network of males, singles, younger age groups, and those with higher education was larger than those in other groups. Conclusion: It seems that C in Iran is higher than that in developed countries, possibly because of its social structure. Because of cultural and social similarities in Middle East courtiers, C in other countries also might be higher than that in developed countries. PMID:23777738

  3. Estimation of effective population size using single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data in Jeju horse.

    PubMed

    Do, Kyoung-Tag; Lee, Joon-Ho; Lee, Hak-Kyo; Kim, Jun; Park, Kyung-Do

    2014-01-01

    This study was conducted to estimate the effective population size using SNPs data of 240 Jeju horses that had raced at the Jeju racing park. Of the total 61,746 genotyped autosomal SNPs, 17,320 (28.1%) SNPs (missing genotype rate of >10%, minor allele frequency of <0.05 and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium test P-value of <10(-6)) were excluded after quality control processes. SNPs on the X and Y chromosomes and genotyped individuals with missing genotype rate over 10% were also excluded, and finally, 44,426 (71.9%) SNPs were selected and used for the analysis. The measures of the LD, square of correlation coefficient (r(2)) between SNP pairs, were calculated for each allele and the effective population size was determined based on r(2) measures. The polymorphism information contents (PIC) and expected heterozygosity (HE) were 0.27 and 0.34, respectively. In LD, the most rapid decline was observed over the first 1 Mb. But r(2) decreased more slowly with increasing distance and was constant after 2 Mb of distance and the decline was almost linear with log-transformed distance. The average r(2) between adjacent SNP pairs ranged from 0.20 to 0.31 in each chromosome and whole average was 0.26, while the whole average r(2) between all SNP pairs was 0.02. We observed an initial pattern of decreasing Ne and estimated values were closer to 41 at 1 ~ 5 generations ago. The effective population size (41 heads) estimated in this study seems to be large considering Jeju horse's population size (about 2,000 heads), but it should be interpreted with caution because of the technical limitations of the methods and sample size.

  4. Body size variation of four latitudinally-separated populations of a toad species: age and growth rate as the proximate determinants.

    PubMed

    Yu, Tonglei; Lu, Xin

    2013-09-01

    Age and growth rate are critical parameters determining the body size of adult anurans, which grow indeterminately. Therefore, evaluating their relative importance and selective pressures acting on them may help to explain variation in body size of anurans across geographical populations. Based on the data on body size and skeletochronological age of 4 Asiatic toad (Bufo gargarizans) populations that are widely separated in latitude, the present study showed that toads at the northern extremity of the range were the oldest, on average, and grew relatively fast, toads at the southern end of the range were relatively old but grew fastest, whereas mid-latitude toads were intermediate in both traits. These results indicated that relative contributions of age and growth rate to body size differed among populations. From a life history perspective, greater age attained by toads at higher latitudes should result from delayed maturation, and faster growth from an adaptive response to strong seasonal time constraints; in contrast, selective pressures on the 2 parameters at lower latitudes might be associated, respectively, with low adult death rates and longer favorable growing seasons.

  5. Extent of linkage disequilibrium and effective population size in Finnish Landrace and Finnish Yorkshire pig breeds.

    PubMed

    Uimari, P; Tapio, M

    2011-03-01

    The extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD) and effective population size in Finnish Landrace and Finnish Yorkshire pig populations were studied using a whole genome SNP panel (Illumina PorcineSNP60 BeadChip) and pedigree data. Genotypic data included 86 Finnish Landrace and 32 Finnish Yorkshire boars. Pedigree data included 608,138 Finnish Landrace 554,237 and Finnish Yorkshire pigs, and on average 15 ancestral generations were known for the reference animals, born in 2005 to 2009. The breeding animals of the 2 populations have been kept separate in the breeding programs. Based on the pedigree data, the current effective population size for Finnish Landrace is 91 and for Finnish Yorkshire 61. Linkage disequilibrium measures (D' and r(2)) were estimated for over 1.5 million pairs of SNP. Average r(2) for SNP 30 kb apart was 0.47 and 0.49 and for SNP 5 Mb apart 0.09 and 0.12 for Finnish Landrace and Finnish Yorkshire, respectively. Average LD (r(2)) between adjacent SNP in the Illumina PorcineSNP60 BeadChip was 0.43 (57% of the adjacent SNP pairs had r(2) > 0.2) for Finnish Landrace and 0.46 (60% of the adjacent SNP pairs had r(2) > 0.2) for Finnish Yorkshire, and average r(2) > 0.2 extended to 1.0 and 1.5 Mb for Finnish Landrace and Finnish Yorkshire, respectively. Effective population size estimates based on the decay of r(2) with distance were similar to those based on the pedigree data: 80 and 55 for Finnish Landrace and Finnish Yorkshire, respectively. Thus, the results indicate that the effective population size of Finnish Yorkshire is smaller than of Finnish Landrace and has a clear effect on the extent of LD. The current effective population size of both breeds is above the recommended minimum of 50 but may get smaller than that in the near future, if no action is taken to balance the inbreeding rate and selection response. Because a moderate level of LD extends over a long distance, selection based on whole genome SNP markers (genomic selection) is expected

  6. Pollinator population size and pollination ecosystem service responses to enhancing floral and nesting resources.

    PubMed

    Häussler, Johanna; Sahlin, Ullrika; Baey, Charlotte; Smith, Henrik G; Clough, Yann

    2017-03-01

    Modeling pollination ecosystem services requires a spatially explicit, process-based approach because they depend on both the behavioral responses of pollinators to the amount and spatial arrangement of habitat and on the within- and between-season dynamics of pollinator populations in response to land use. We describe a novel pollinator model predicting flower visitation rates by wild central-place foragers (e.g., nesting bees) in spatially explicit landscapes. The model goes beyond existing approaches by: (1) integrating preferential use of more rewarding floral and nesting resources; (2) considering population growth over time; (3) allowing different dispersal distances for workers and reproductives; (4) providing visitation rates for use in crop pollination models. We use the model to estimate the effect of establishing grassy field margins offering nesting resources and a low quantity of flower resources, and/or late-flowering flower strips offering no nesting resources but abundant flowers, on bumble bee populations and visitation rates to flowers in landscapes that differ in amounts of linear seminatural habitats and early mass-flowering crops. Flower strips were three times more effective in increasing pollinator populations and visitation rates than field margins, and this effect increased over time. Late-blooming flower strips increased early-season visitation rates, but decreased visitation rates in other late-season flowers. Increases in population size over time in response to flower strips and amounts of linear seminatural habitats reduced this apparent competition for pollinators. Our spatially explicit, process-based model generates emergent patterns reflecting empirical observations, such that adding flower resources may have contrasting short- and long-term effects due to apparent competition for pollinators and pollinator population size increase. It allows exploring these effects and comparing effect sizes in ways not possible with other

  7. Size distribution of retrovirally marked lineages matches prediction from population measurements of cell cycle behavior

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cai, Li; Hayes, Nancy L.; Takahashi, Takao; Caviness, Verne S Jr; Nowakowski, Richard S.

    2002-01-01

    Mechanisms that regulate neuron production in the developing mouse neocortex were examined by using a retroviral lineage marking method to determine the sizes of the lineages remaining in the proliferating population of the ventricular zone during the period of neuron production. The distribution of clade sizes obtained experimentally in four different injection-survival paradigms (E11-E13, E11-E14, E11-E15, and E12-E15) from a total of over 500 labeled lineages was compared with that obtained from three models in which the average behavior of the proliferating population [i.e., the proportion of cells remaining in the proliferative population (P) vs. that exiting the proliferative population (Q)] was quantitatively related to lineage size distribution. In model 1, different proportions of asymmetric, symmetric terminal, and symmetric nonterminal cell divisions coexisted during the entire developmental period. In model 2, the developmental period was divided into two epochs: During the first, asymmetric and symmetric nonterminal cell divisions occurred, but, during the second, asymmetric and symmetric terminal cell divisions occurred. In model 3, the shifts in P and Q are accounted for by changes in the proportions of the two types of symmetric cell divisions without the inclusion of any asymmetric cell divisions. The results obtained from the retroviral experiments were well accounted for by model 1 but not by model 2 or 3. These findings demonstrate that: 1) asymmetric and both types of symmetric cell divisions coexist during the entire period of neurogenesis in the mouse, 2) neuron production is regulated in the proliferative population by the independent decisions of the two daughter cells to reenter S phase, and 3) neurons are produced by both asymmetric and symmetric terminal cell divisions. In addition, the findings mean that cell death and/or tangential movements of cells in the proliferative population occur at only a low rate and that there are no

  8. Knowledge and psychosocial effects of the film super size me on young adults.

    PubMed

    Cottone, Ellen; Byrd-Bredbenner, Carol

    2007-07-01

    The prevalence of overweight and obesity has risen dramatically over the past 2 decades. Among the many contributing factors is increased consumption of fast foods. Mass media outlets have cited the potential of the film Super Size Me to alter this behavior. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of this film on young adults' fast-food knowledge and psychosocial measures (ie, attitudes, self-efficacy, healthy weight locus of control, and stage of change) and evaluate the effectiveness of this film as a form of emotional arousal and consciousness-raising. A pretest-posttest follow-up control group design with random assignment was used. Young adults (n=135; 54% female) completed the pretest; approximately 10 days later viewed a film then completed the posttest; and about 9 days later completed the follow-up test. The experimental group (n=80) viewed Super Size Me. The control group (n=55) viewed an unrelated film. Unpaired t tests revealed that the study groups did not differ significantly (P>0.05) at pretest on any measure. Analysis of covariance, with pretest score as the covariate, revealed the experimental group scored substantially better than the control group at posttest on knowledge and nearly all psychosocial measures. In addition, the experimental group continued to score substantially higher than the control group at follow-up on knowledge, stage of change, and consciousness-raising and lower on external: chance health locus of control. Super Size Me represents a potentially powerful tool for nutrition education. Nutrition practitioners should consider using Super Size Me as a consciousness-raising and emotional arousal change process with patients in pre-action stages of change for reducing fast-food intake.

  9. The evolution of harm--effect of sexual conflicts and population size.

    PubMed

    Gay, Laurène; Hosken, David J; Eady, Paul; Vasudev, Ram; Tregenza, Tom

    2011-03-01

    Conflicts of interest between mates can promote the evolution of male traits that reduce female fitness and that drive coevolution between the sexes. The rate of adaptation depends on the intensity of selection and its efficiency, which depends on drift and genetic variability. This leads to the largely untested prediction that coevolutionary adaptations such as those driven by sexual conflict should evolve faster in large populations. We tested this using the bruchid beetle Callosobruchus maculatus, a species where harm inflicted by males is well documented. Although most experimental evolution studies remove sexual conflict, we reintroduced it in populations in which it had been experimentally removed. Both population size and standing genetic variability were manipulated in a factorial experimental design. After 90 generations of relaxed conflict (monogamy), the reintroduction of sexual conflicts for 30 generations favored males that harmed females and females that were more resistant to the genital damage inflicted by males. Males evolved to become more harmful when population size was large rather than when initial genetic variation was enriched. Our study shows that sexual selection can create conditions in which males can benefit from harming females and that selection may tend to be more intense and effective in larger populations.

  10. Resources, key traits and the size of fungal epidemics in Daphnia populations.

    PubMed

    Civitello, David J; Penczykowski, Rachel M; Smith, Aimee N; Shocket, Marta S; Duffy, Meghan A; Hall, Spencer R

    2015-07-01

    Parasites can profoundly affect host populations and ecological communities. Thus, it remains critical to identify mechanisms that drive variation in epidemics. Resource availability can drive epidemics via traits of hosts and parasites that govern disease spread. Here, we map resource-trait-epidemic connections to explain variation in fungal outbreaks (Metschnikowia bicuspidata) in a zooplankton host (Daphnia dentifera) among lakes. We predicted epidemics would grow larger in lakes with more phytoplankton via three energetic mechanisms. First, resources should stimulate Daphnia reproduction, potentially elevating host density. Secondly, resources should boost body size of hosts, enhancing exposure to environmentally distributed propagules through size-dependent feeding. Thirdly, resources should fuel parasite reproduction within hosts. To test these predictions, we sampled 12 natural epidemics and tracked edible algae, fungal infection prevalence, body size, fecundity and density of hosts, as well as within-host parasite loads. Epidemics grew larger in lakes with more algal resources. Structural equation modelling revealed that resource availability stimulated all three traits (host fecundity, host size and parasite load). However, only parasite load connected resources to epidemic size. Epidemics grew larger in more dense Daphnia populations, but host density was unrelated to host fecundity (thus breaking its link to resources). Thus, via energetic mechanisms, resource availability can stimulate key trait(s) governing epidemics in nature. A synthetic focus on resources and resource-trait links could yield powerful insights into epidemics.

  11. Critique and lessons learned from using multiple methods to estimate population size of men who have sex with men in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Quaye, Silas; Fisher Raymond, H; Atuahene, Kyeremeh; Amenyah, Richard; Aberle-Grasse, John; McFarland, Willi; El-Adas, Angela

    2015-02-01

    Population size estimation of key populations at risk of HIV is essential to every national response. We implemented population size estimation of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ghana using a three-stage approach within the 2011 Ghana Men's Study: during the study's formative assessment, the larger integrated bio-behavioral surveillance (IBBS) survey; and during the stakeholder meeting. We used six methods in combination within the three-stage approach (literature review, mapping with census, unique object multiplier, service multiplier, wisdom of the crowd, and modified Delphi) to generate size estimates from 16 locations (4 IBBS survey sites and 12 other locations) and used the estimates from the 16 sites to extrapolate the total MSM population size of Ghana. We estimated the number of MSM in Ghana to be 30,579 with a plausible range of 21,645-34,470. The overall estimate suggests that the prevalence of MSM in Ghana is 0.48 % of the adult male population. Lessons learned are shared to inform and improve applications of the methods in future studies.

  12. Bronchodilator Responsiveness and Reported Respiratory Symptoms in an Adult Population

    PubMed Central

    Tan, Wan C.; Bourbeau, Jean; Hernandez, Paul; Chapman, Kenneth R.; Cowie, Robert; FitzGerald, J. Mark; Aaron, Shawn; Marciniuk, Darcy D.; Maltais, Francois; Buist, A. Sonia; O’Donnell, Denis E.; Sin, Don D.

    2013-01-01

    Background The relationship between patient-reported symptoms and objective measures of lung function is poorly understood. Aim To determine the association between responsiveness to bronchodilator and respiratory symptoms in random population samples. Methods 4669 people aged 40 years and older from 8 sites in Canada completed interviewer-administered respiratory questionnaires and performed spirometry before and after administration of 200 ug of inhaled salbutamol. The effect of anthropometric variables, smoking exposure and doctor-diagnosed asthma (DDA) on bronchodilator responsiveness in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and in forced vital capacity (FVC) were evaluated. Multiple logistic regression was used to test for association between quintiles of increasing changes in FEV1 and in FVC after bronchodilator and several respiratory symptoms. Results Determinants of bronchodilator change in FEV1 and FVC included age, DDA, smoking, respiratory drug use and female gender [p<0.005 to p<0.0001 ]. In subjects without doctor-diagnosed asthma or COPD, bronchodilator response in FEV1 was associated with wheezing [p for trend<0.0001], while bronchodilator response for FVC was associated with breathlessness. [p for trend <0.0001]. Conclusions Bronchodilator responsiveness in FEV1 or FVC are associated with different respiratory symptoms in the community. Both flow and volume bronchodilator responses are useful parameters which together can be predictive of both wheezing and breathlessness in the general population. PMID:23554960

  13. The REVEILLE Clock Genes Inhibit Growth of Juvenile and Adult Plants by Control of Cell Size.

    PubMed

    Gray, Jennifer A; Shalit-Kaneh, Akiva; Chu, Dalena Nhu; Hsu, Polly Yingshan; Harmer, Stacey L

    2017-04-01

    The circadian clock is a complex regulatory network that enhances plant growth and fitness in a constantly changing environment. In Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana), the clock is composed of numerous regulatory feedback loops in which REVEILLE8 (RVE8) and its homologs RVE4 and RVE6 act in a partially redundant manner to promote clock pace. Here, we report that the remaining members of the RVE8 clade, RVE3 and RVE5, play only minor roles in the regulation of clock function. However, we find that RVE8 clade proteins have unexpected functions in the modulation of light input to the clock and the control of plant growth at multiple stages of development. In seedlings, these proteins repress hypocotyl elongation in a daylength- and sucrose-dependent manner. Strikingly, adult rve4 6 8 and rve3 4 5 6 8 mutants are much larger than wild-type plants, with both increased leaf area and biomass. This size phenotype is associated with a faster growth rate and larger cell size and is not simply due to a delay in the transition to flowering. Gene expression and epistasis analysis reveal that the growth phenotypes of rve mutants are due to the misregulation of PHYTOCHROME INTERACTING FACTOR4 (PIF4) and PIF5 expression. Our results show that even small changes in PIF gene expression caused by the perturbation of clock gene function can have large effects on the growth of adult plants.

  14. Pharmacological Stimulation of Edar Signaling in the Adult Enhances Sebaceous Gland Size and Function

    PubMed Central

    Kowalczyk-Quintas, Christine; Schuepbach-Mallepell, Sonia; Willen, Laure; Smith, Terry K.; Huttner, Kenneth; Kirby, Neil; Headon, Denis J.; Schneider, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    Impaired Ectodysplasin A (EDA) – EDA receptor (EDAR) signaling affects ectodermally derived structures including teeth, hair follicles and cutaneous glands. X-linked hypohidrotic ectodermal dysplasia (XLHED), resulting from EDA deficiency, can be rescued with lifelong benefits in animal models by stimulation of ectodermal appendage development with EDAR agonists. Treatments initiated later in the developmental period restore progressively fewer of the affected structures. It is unknown whether EDAR stimulation in adults with XLHED might have beneficial effects. In adult Eda mutant mice treated for several weeks with agonist anti-EDAR antibodies, we find that sebaceous glands size and function can be restored to wild type levels. This effect is maintained upon chronic treatment but reverses slowly upon cessation of treatment. Sebaceous glands in all skin regions respond to treatment, though to varying degrees, and this is accompanied in both Eda mutant and wild type mice by sebum secretion to levels higher than those observed in untreated controls. Edar is expressed at the periphery of the glands, suggesting a direct homeostatic effect of Edar stimulation on the sebaceous gland. Sebaceous gland size and sebum production may serve as biomarkers for EDAR stimulation, and EDAR agonists may improve skin dryness and eczema frequently observed in XLHED. PMID:25207818

  15. The relationship between organ dose and patient size in tube current modulated adult thoracic CT scans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khatonabadi, Maryam; Zhang, Di; Yang, Jeffrey; DeMarco, John J.; Cagnon, Chris C.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F.

    2012-03-01

    Recently published AAPM Task Group 204 developed conversion coefficients that use scanner reported CTDIvol to estimate dose to the center of patient undergoing fixed tube current body exam. However, most performed CT exams use TCM to reduce dose to patients. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between organ dose and a variety of patient size metrics in adult chest CT scans that use tube current modulation (TCM). Monte Carlo simulations were performed for 32 voxelized models with contoured lungs and glandular breasts tissue, consisting of females and males. These simulations made use of patient's actual TCM data to estimate organ dose. Using image data, different size metrics were calculated, these measurements were all performed on one slice, at the level of patient's nipple. Estimated doses were normalized by scanner-reported CTDIvol and plotted versus different metrics. CTDIvol values were plotted versus different metrics to look at scanner's output versus size. The metrics performed similarly in terms of correlating with organ dose. Looking at each gender separately, for male models normalized lung dose showed a better linear correlation (r2=0.91) with effective diameter, while female models showed higher correlation (r2=0.59) with the anterior-posterior measurement. There was essentially no correlation observed between size and CTDIvol-normalized breast dose. However, a linear relationship was observed between absolute breast dose and size. Dose to lungs and breasts were consistently higher in females with similar size as males which could be due to shape and composition differences between genders in the thoracic region.

  16. Effective population size of steelhead trout: influence of variance in reproductive success, hatchery programs, and genetic compensation between life-history forms.

    PubMed

    Araki, Hitoshi; Waples, Robin S; Ardren, William R; Cooper, Becky; Blouin, Michael S

    2007-03-01

    The effective population size is influenced by many biological factors in natural populations. To evaluate their relative importance, we estimated the effective number of breeders per year (Nb) and effective population size per generation (Ne) in anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Hood River, Oregon (USA). Using demographic data and genetic parentage analysis on an almost complete sample of all adults that returned to the river over 15 years (>15,000 individuals), we estimated Nb for 13 run years and Ne for three entire generations. The results are as follows: (i) the ratio of Ne to the estimated census population size (N) was 0.17-0.40, with large variance in reproductive success among individuals being the primary cause of the reduction in Ne/N; (ii) fish from a traditional hatchery program (Htrad: nonlocal, multiple generations in a hatchery) had negative effects on Nb, not only by reducing mean reproductive success but also by increasing variance in reproductive success among breeding parents, whereas no sign of such effects was found in fish from supplementation hatchery programs (Hsupp: local, single generation in a hatchery); and (iii) Nb was relatively stable among run years, despite the widely fluctuating annual run sizes of anadromous adults. We found high levels of reproductive contribution of nonanadromous parents to anadromous offspring when anadromous run size is small, suggesting a genetic compensation between life-history forms (anadromous and nonanadromous). This is the first study showing that reproductive interaction between different life-history forms can buffer the genetic impact of fluctuating census size on Ne.

  17. Initial size of cleft does not correlate with size and function of nasal airway in adults with unilateral cleft lip and palate.

    PubMed

    Reiser, Erika; Andlin-Sobocki, Anna; Mani, Maria; Holmström, Mats

    2011-06-01

    The noses of patients with clefts are often functionally inadequate. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the correlation between size of the maxillary cleft in infancy and size and function of the nasal airway in adults with unilateral cleft lip and palate (UCLP). This is a long-term follow up study including 53 patients with UCLP born between 1960 and 1987 and treated at the Cleft Lip and Palate Centre, Uppsala University Hospital, Sweden. Lip repair was performed at 3-4 months of age followed by either a one-stage or a two-stage palatal closure. The size of the cleft was measured on infant maxillary dental casts. Nasal minimum cross-sectional area (cm(2)) and volume (cm(3)) (acoustic rhinometry), air flow resistance (Pa s/cm(3)) (rhinomanometry), peak inspiratory flow (l/min) (peak nasal inspiratory flow) and number of identified odours (Scandinavian odor-identification test) were assessed in adulthood. The size of the maxillary cleft varied considerably at infancy. The size of the nasal airway and its function on the cleft side in adulthood were reduced compared with the non-cleft side, but no correlations were found between size of the initial cleft in infancy and size and function of the nasal airway in adulthood. In adults born with UCLP, therefore, size of the maxillary cleft in infancy does not seem to affect size and function of the nasal airway in adulthood.

  18. Temperament profiles in personality disorders among a young adult population.

    PubMed

    Kantojärvi, Liisa; Miettunen, Jouko; Veijola, Juha; Läksy, Kristian; Karvonen, Juha T; Ekelund, Jesper; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lichtermann, Dirk; Joukamaa, Matti

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this study was to describe the temperament dimension profiles assessed by the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI) among young adults with the DSM-III-R personality disorder (PD). Our hypothesis was that PD clusters and separate PDs can be distinguished from one another by their specific temperament profiles. As a part of the 31-year follow-up survey of the prospective Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort, the cohort members living in the city of Oulu at the age of 31 years (n=1609) were invited to participate in a two-phase field study. The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-III-R for PDs (SCID-II) was used as diagnostic instrument. The final study sample consisted of the 1311 subjects who had completed the Hopkins Symptom Check List-25 questionnaire for screening and had given a written informed consent. Of the 321 SCID interviewed subjects, 74 met the criteria for at least one PD and had completed the TCI. The mean TCI scores of subjects with PD and control subjects without PD (n=910) were compared. Low Novelty Seeking, high Harm Avoidance and low Reward Dependence characterized cluster A and C PDs. Subjects with a cluster B PD did not differ from controls, except for Novelty Seeking, which was high. The temperament dimensions could not distinguish different PDs very well, with the only exception of persons with obsessive-compulsive PD. PD clusters were associated with different profiles of temperament, lending some support for Cloninger's typology.

  19. Mortality Among Adults With Intellectual Disability in England: Comparisons With the General Population

    PubMed Central

    Hosking, Fay J.; Shah, Sunil M.; Harris, Tess; DeWilde, Stephen; Beighton, Carole; Cook, Derek G.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To describe mortality among adults with intellectual disability in England in comparison with the general population. Methods. We conducted a cohort study from 2009 to 2013 using data from 343 general practices. Adults with intellectual disability (n = 16 666; 656 deaths) were compared with age-, gender-, and practice-matched controls (n = 113 562; 1358 deaths). Results. Adults with intellectual disability had higher mortality rates than controls (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.3, 3.9). This risk remained high after adjustment for comorbidity, smoking, and deprivation (HR = 3.1; 95% CI = 2.7, 3.4); it was even higher among adults with intellectual disability and Down syndrome or epilepsy. A total of 37.0% of all deaths among adults with intellectual disability were classified as being amenable to health care intervention, compared with 22.5% in the general population (HR = 5.9; 95% CI = 5.1, 6.8). Conclusions. Mortality among adults with intellectual disability is markedly elevated in comparison with the general population, with more than a third of deaths potentially amenable to health care interventions. This mortality disparity suggests the need to improve access to, and quality of, health care among people with intellectual disability. PMID:27310347

  20. What Is the Prevalence of Adult ADHD? Results of a Population Screen of 966 Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faraone, Stephen V.; Biederman, Joseph

    2005-01-01

    To provide a better estimate of the prevalence of ADHD in adulthood, the authors complete a telephone survey of 966 randomly selected adults. They compute two diagnoses from the survey data. Participants meeting "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed.) criteria for both childhood and adulthood are defined as narrow ADHD.…

  1. Asymptotic Distributions of Coalescence Times and Ancestral Lineage Numbers for Populations with Temporally Varying Size

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Hua; Chen, Kun

    2013-01-01

    The distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers play an essential role in coalescent modeling and ancestral inference. Both exact distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers are expressed as the sum of alternating series, and the terms in the series become numerically intractable for large samples. More computationally attractive are their asymptotic distributions, which were derived in Griffiths (1984) for populations with constant size. In this article, we derive the asymptotic distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers for populations with temporally varying size. For a sample of size n, denote by Tm the mth coalescent time, when m + 1 lineages coalesce into m lineages, and An(t) the number of ancestral lineages at time t back from the current generation. Similar to the results in Griffiths (1984), the number of ancestral lineages, An(t), and the coalescence times, Tm, are asymptotically normal, with the mean and variance of these distributions depending on the population size function, N(t). At the very early stage of the coalescent, when t → 0, the number of coalesced lineages n − An(t) follows a Poisson distribution, and as m → n, n(n−1)Tm/2N(0) follows a gamma distribution. We demonstrate the accuracy of the asymptotic approximations by comparing to both exact distributions and coalescent simulations. Several applications of the theoretical results are also shown: deriving statistics related to the properties of gene genealogies, such as the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) and the total branch length (TBL) of the genealogy, and deriving the allele frequency spectrum for large genealogies. With the advent of genomic-level sequencing data for large samples, the asymptotic distributions are expected to have wide applications in theoretical and methodological development for population genetic inference. PMID:23666939

  2. Asymptotic distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers for populations with temporally varying size.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hua; Chen, Kun

    2013-07-01

    The distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers play an essential role in coalescent modeling and ancestral inference. Both exact distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers are expressed as the sum of alternating series, and the terms in the series become numerically intractable for large samples. More computationally attractive are their asymptotic distributions, which were derived in Griffiths (1984) for populations with constant size. In this article, we derive the asymptotic distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers for populations with temporally varying size. For a sample of size n, denote by Tm the mth coalescent time, when m + 1 lineages coalesce into m lineages, and An(t) the number of ancestral lineages at time t back from the current generation. Similar to the results in Griffiths (1984), the number of ancestral lineages, An(t), and the coalescence times, Tm, are asymptotically normal, with the mean and variance of these distributions depending on the population size function, N(t). At the very early stage of the coalescent, when t → 0, the number of coalesced lineages n - An(t) follows a Poisson distribution, and as m → n, $$n\\left(n-1\\right){T}_{m}/2N\\left(0\\right)$$ follows a gamma distribution. We demonstrate the accuracy of the asymptotic approximations by comparing to both exact distributions and coalescent simulations. Several applications of the theoretical results are also shown: deriving statistics related to the properties of gene genealogies, such as the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) and the total branch length (TBL) of the genealogy, and deriving the allele frequency spectrum for large genealogies. With the advent of genomic-level sequencing data for large samples, the asymptotic distributions are expected to have wide applications in theoretical and methodological development for population genetic inference.

  3. Parameter Estimation in a Coupled System of Nonlinear Size-Structured Populations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-11-22

    applications including cellular level HIV modelling [7], hys- teresis in viscoelastic materials [8, 9], shear waves in biotissue [10], and electromagnetic...Philadelphia, PA, 2003, 129-154. [7] H.T. Banks, D.M. Bortz and S.E. Holte, Incorporation of variability into the modeling of viral delays in HIV infection...Academic Press, New York, 1980. [34] W. Huyer, A size stuctured population model with dispersion, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 181 (1994), 716-754. [35] B.G

  4. Experimental selection for body size at age modifies early life-history traits and muscle gene expression in adult zebrafish.

    PubMed

    Amaral, Ian P G; Johnston, Ian A

    2012-11-15

    The short generation time of the zebrafish (Danio rerio) was exploited to investigate the effects of selection for body size at age on early life-history traits and on the transcriptional response to a growth stimulus in skeletal muscle of adult fish. Replicate populations were either unselected (U-lineage) or subjected to four generations of experimental selection for small (S-lineage) or large (L-lineage) body size at 90 days post-fertilization. Body mass was on average 16.3% and 41.0% higher in the L- than in the U- and S-lineages, respectively. Egg diameter was 6.4% lower with 13% less yolk in the S-lineage compared with the other lineages. Maternal transcripts for igf2r, bmpr1aa, igf1ar, igf2a, igfbp5a, ghra and igfbp3 in 2-4 cell stage embryos were higher in the L- than in the S-lineage. Larvae from the L-lineage were significantly larger, but survivorship at the end of the first month was similar between lineages. Gene expression was measured in the fast muscle of adult fish fasted for 7 days and then re-fed to satiation for 48 h. The expression of 11 insulin-like growth factor pathway genes and 12 other nutritionally responsive genes was similar for the S- and L-lineages as was gut fullness with feeding. Transcript abundance for four genes (igf1a, igf2r, igfbp1a and igfbp1b) showed either regulated or constitutive differences between the S- and L-lineages. For example, igf2 receptor transcript abundance was higher and igbp1a/b transcript abundance was lower in the L- than in the S-lineage, consistent with an effect of selection on insulin-like growth factor signalling.

  5. Mixture models for estimating the size of a closed population when capture rates vary among individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, R.M.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2003-01-01

    We develop a parameterization of the beta-binomial mixture that provides sensible inferences about the size of a closed population when probabilities of capture or detection vary among individuals. Three classes of mixture models (beta-binomial, logistic-normal, and latent-class) are fitted to recaptures of snowshoe hares for estimating abundance and to counts of bird species for estimating species richness. In both sets of data, rates of detection appear to vary more among individuals (animals or species) than among sampling occasions or locations. The estimates of population size and species richness are sensitive to model-specific assumptions about the latent distribution of individual rates of detection. We demonstrate using simulation experiments that conventional diagnostics for assessing model adequacy, such as deviance, cannot be relied on for selecting classes of mixture models that produce valid inferences about population size. Prior knowledge about sources of individual heterogeneity in detection rates, if available, should be used to help select among classes of mixture models that are to be used for inference.

  6. N-mixture models for estimating population size from spatially replicated counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Spatial replication is a common theme in count surveys of animals. Such surveys often generate sparse count data from which it is difficult to estimate population size while formally accounting for detection probability. In this article, i describe a class of models (n-mixture models) which allow for estimation of population size from such data. The key idea is to view site-specific population sizes, n, as independent random variables distributed according to some mixing distribution (e.g., Poisson). Prior parameters are estimated from the marginal likelihood of the data, having integrated over the prior distribution for n. Carroll and lombard (1985, journal of american statistical association 80, 423-426) proposed a class of estimators based on mixing over a prior distribution for detection probability. Their estimator can be applied in limited settings, but is sensitive to prior parameter values that are fixed a priori. Spatial replication provides additional information regarding the parameters of the prior distribution on n that is exploited by the n-mixture models and which leads to reasonable estimates of abundance from sparse data. A simulation study demonstrates superior operating characteristics (bias, confidence interval coverage) of the n-mixture estimator compared to the caroll and lombard estimator. Both estimators are applied to point count data on six species of birds illustrating the sensitivity to choice of prior on p and substantially different estimates of abundance as a consequence.

  7. High-frequency audiometric assessment of a young adult population.

    PubMed

    Green, D M; Kidd, G; Stevens, K N

    1987-02-01

    The hearing thresholds of 37 young adults (18-26 years) were measured at 13 frequencies (8, 9,10,...,20 kHz) using a newly developed high-frequency audiometer. All subjects were screened at 15 dB HL at the low audiometric frequencies, had tympanometry within normal limits, and had no history of significant hearing problems. The audiometer delivers sound from a driver unit to the ear canal through a lossy tube and earpiece providing a source impedance essentially equal to the characteristic impedance of the tube. A small microphone located within the earpiece is used to measure the response of the ear canal when an impulse is applied at the driver unit. From this response, a gain function is calculated relating the equivalent sound-pressure level of the source to the SPL at the medial end of the ear canal. For the subjects tested, this gain function showed a gradual increase from 2 to 12 dB over the frequency range. The standard deviation of the gain function was about 2.5 dB across subjects in the lower frequency region (8-14 kHz) and about 4 dB at the higher frequencies. Cross modes and poor fit of the earpiece to the ear canal prevented accurate calibration for some subjects at the highest frequencies. The average SPL at threshold was 23 dB at 8 kHz, 30 dB at 12 kHz, and 87 dB at 18 kHz. Despite the homogeneous nature of the sample, the younger subjects in the sample had reliably better thresholds than the older subjects. Repeated measurements of threshold over an interval as long as 1 month showed a standard deviation of 2.5 dB at the lower frequencies (8-14 kHz) and 4.5 dB at the higher frequencies.

  8. Multidimensional Clinical Phenotyping of an Adult Cystic Fibrosis Patient Population

    PubMed Central

    Conrad, Douglas J.; Bailey, Barbara A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Cystic Fibrosis (CF) is a multi-systemic disease resulting from mutations in the Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane Regulator (CFTR) gene and has major manifestations in the sino-pulmonary, and gastro-intestinal tracts. Clinical phenotypes were generated using 26 common clinical variables to generate classes that overlapped quantiles of lung function and were based on multiple aspects of CF systemic disease. Methods The variables included age, gender, CFTR mutations, FEV1% predicted, FVC% predicted, height, weight, Brasfield chest xray score, pancreatic sufficiency status and clinical microbiology results. Complete datasets were compiled on 211 subjects. Phenotypes were identified using a proximity matrix generated by the unsupervised Random Forests algorithm and subsequent clustering by the Partitioning around Medoids (PAM) algorithm. The final phenotypic classes were then characterized and compared to a similar dataset obtained three years earlier. Findings Clinical phenotypes were identified using a clustering strategy that generated four and five phenotypes. Each strategy identified 1) a low lung health scores phenotype, 2) a younger, well-nourished, male-dominated class, 3) various high lung health score phenotypes that varied in terms of age, gender and nutritional status. This multidimensional clinical phenotyping strategy identified classes with expected microbiology results and low risk clinical phenotypes with pancreatic sufficiency. Interpretation This study demonstrated regional adult CF clinical phenotypes using non-parametric, continuous, ordinal and categorical data with a minimal amount of subjective data to identify clinically relevant phenotypes. These studies identified the relative stability of the phenotypes, demonstrated specific phenotypes consistent with published findings and identified others needing further study. PMID:25822311

  9. Selection on incremental variation of eye size in a wild population of Daphnia.

    PubMed

    Brandon, C S; James, T; Dudycha, J L

    2015-11-01

    Several studies of eye morphology have analysed macroevolutionary patterns in the diversity of eyes, and although these studies are often linked to environment or behaviour, they provide only indirect evidence of selection. Specific data to show the microevolutionary potential for adaptation by natural selection in eye morphology have been lacking. We document directional selection on eye size, an important determinant of visual capabilities, in a wild population of the freshwater microcrustacean Daphnia. We show that even slight changes in eye size may have major consequences for fitness. An increase in eye diameter of 19.9 μm - slightly more than one standard deviation - is associated with an increase in clutch size of one egg, or an increase of nearly 20% of the mean clutch size. Furthermore, relative eye size is genetically variable and thus could evolve in response to the observed selective pressure. We conclude that selection on incremental variation in eye size may have led to differences observed on broader taxonomic scales.

  10. The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

    PubMed Central

    Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

    2016-01-01

    Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

  11. Reconstructing the size distribution of the small body population in the Solar System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lambrechts, Michiel; Morbidelli, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The size distributions of the populations of small bodies in the solar system (the asteroid belt, the hot Kuiper belt and the cold Kuiper belt) show a striking similarity: they all show an elbow at a diameter of about D=100km. At D<100km, all size distributions have the same slope, dictated by collisional equilibrium. At D>100km, the slopes are different, the cold Kuiper belt having the steepest slope, while the hot Kuiper belt and the asteroid belt have progressively more shallow slopes. Moreover, the asteroid belt and hot Kuiper belt show a turnover to a shallow size distribution at sizes larger than D=300-500km. Johansen et al. (2015) explained the elbow and the transition to a steeper slope assuming that the original planetesimals had D<100km and that they grew further by the process of pebble accretion, the sweep up of small particles aided by gas drag. However, the origin of the differences between the slopes of the three populations remained unclear.Here we investigate the problem using a particle-in-a-box code, that treats collisional coagulation, fragmentation, dynamical stirring and damping, to which we have added growth by pebble accretion for objects with possibly eccentric and inclined orbits.We show that the size distribution above D=100km is set by a combination of planetesimal collisions and the sweeping up of pebbles. Thus, the final slopes are diagnostic of the collisionial rate and the initial total mass of the planetesimal population. The size distribution for the largest asteroids and hot Kuiper belt objects are consistent with growth dominated by the accretion of pebbles. The observed size distributions also places constraints on the dominant particle size, the level of midplane turbulence and nebular conditions at different orbital radii in the Solar nebula. Our findings hint that the asteroid belt largely formed close to the dissipation of the gas disc and that its final total mass was comparable to that of the Earth.

  12. Evidence that the rate of strong selective sweeps increases with population size in the great apes

    PubMed Central

    Nam, Kiwoong; Munch, Kasper; Mailund, Thomas; Nater, Alexander; Greminger, Maja Patricia; Krützen, Michael; Marquès-Bonet, Tomàs; Schierup, Mikkel Heide

    2017-01-01

    Quantifying the number of selective sweeps and their combined effects on genomic diversity in humans and other great apes is notoriously difficult. Here we address the question using a comparative approach to contrast diversity patterns according to the distance from genes in all great ape taxa. The extent of diversity reduction near genes compared with the rest of intergenic sequences is greater in a species with larger effective population size. Also, the maximum distance from genes at which the diversity reduction is observed is larger in species with large effective population size. In Sumatran orangutans, the overall genomic diversity is ∼30% smaller than diversity levels far from genes, whereas this reduction is only 9% in humans. We show by simulation that selection against deleterious mutations in the form of background selection is not expected to cause these differences in diversity among species. Instead, selective sweeps caused by positive selection can reduce diversity level more severely in a large population if there is a higher number of selective sweeps per unit time. We discuss what can cause such a correlation, including the possibility that more frequent sweeps in larger populations are due to a shorter waiting time for the right mutations to arise. PMID:28137852

  13. Low effective population size and evidence for inbreeding in an overexploited flatfish, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.)

    PubMed Central

    Hoarau, Galice; Boon, Eva; Jongma, Dorris N; Ferber, Steven; Palsson, Jonbjorn; Van der Veer, Henk W; Rijnsdorp, Adriaan D; Stam, Wytze T; Olsen, Jeanine L

    2005-01-01

    Overexploitation and subsequent collapse of major worldwide fisheries has made it clear that marine stocks are not inexhaustible. Unfortunately, the perception remains that marine fishes are resilient to large population reductions, as even a commercially ‘collapsed’ stock will still consist of millions of individuals. Coupled with this notion is the idea that fisheries can, therefore, have little effect on the genetic diversity of stocks. We used DNA from archived otoliths collected between 1924 and 1972 together with 2002 juvenile's tissue to estimate effective population size (Ne) in plaice (Pleuronectes platessa). Ne was estimated at 20 000 in the North Sea and 2000 in Iceland. These values are five orders of magnitude smaller than the estimated census size for the two locations. Populations examined between 1924 and 1960 were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, whereas populations examined after approximately 1970 were not. Extensive testing was performed to rule out genotyping artefacts and Wahlund effects. The significant heterozygote deficiencies found from 1970 onward were attributed to inbreeding. The emergence of inbreeding between 1950 and 1970 coincides with the increase in fishing mortality after World War II. Although the biological mechanisms remain speculative, our demonstration of inbreeding signals the need for understanding the social and mating behaviour in commercially important fishes. PMID:15799945

  14. Evidence that the rate of strong selective sweeps increases with population size in the great apes.

    PubMed

    Nam, Kiwoong; Munch, Kasper; Mailund, Thomas; Nater, Alexander; Greminger, Maja Patricia; Krützen, Michael; Marquès-Bonet, Tomàs; Schierup, Mikkel Heide

    2017-02-14

    Quantifying the number of selective sweeps and their combined effects on genomic diversity in humans and other great apes is notoriously difficult. Here we address the question using a comparative approach to contrast diversity patterns according to the distance from genes in all great ape taxa. The extent of diversity reduction near genes compared with the rest of intergenic sequences is greater in a species with larger effective population size. Also, the maximum distance from genes at which the diversity reduction is observed is larger in species with large effective population size. In Sumatran orangutans, the overall genomic diversity is ∼30% smaller than diversity levels far from genes, whereas this reduction is only 9% in humans. We show by simulation that selection against deleterious mutations in the form of background selection is not expected to cause these differences in diversity among species. Instead, selective sweeps caused by positive selection can reduce diversity level more severely in a large population if there is a higher number of selective sweeps per unit time. We discuss what can cause such a correlation, including the possibility that more frequent sweeps in larger populations are due to a shorter waiting time for the right mutations to arise.

  15. Effects of season and population size on pollination and reproductive output in a Mediterranean shrub.

    PubMed

    Sánchez, A M; Rodríguez, M; Albert, M J; Escudero, A

    2017-01-30

    Pollinator guilds may change throughout extended flowering periods, affecting plant reproductive output, especially in seasonal climates. We hypothesised a seasonal shift in pollinator guild and an autumn reduction in pollinator abundance, especially in small and sparse populations. We recorded pollinator identity, abundance and behaviour in relation to flower density from plant to population throughout the extended flowering of Ononis tridentata. We evaluated female reproductive output by recording pollination success and pre-dispersal seed predation in eight populations of contrasting size and density. Offspring quality was also characterised through seed weight and germination. A diverse guild of insects visited O. tridentata in spring, while only Apis mellifera was observed in autumn. Visitation frequency did not vary seasonally, but the number of flowers per foraging bout was lower, and seeds were heavier and had a higher germination rate in autumn. Plant and neighbourhood flowering display were not related to pollinator visitation frequency or behaviour. However, the rate of fertilised ovules, seed set and autumn flowering display size were positively related to population density. The maintenance of pollination in autumn enhances the reproductive performance of O. tridentata due to higher quality of autumn seed, and to a large reduction in seed predator pressure. We also suggest that observed changes in pollinator behaviour could be one of the processes behind seasonal variation in seed performance, since geitonogamous crosses were less likely to occur in autumn.

  16. Recent Evolution in Rattus norvegicus Is Shaped by Declining Effective Population Size.

    PubMed

    Deinum, Eva E; Halligan, Daniel L; Ness, Rob W; Zhang, Yao-Hua; Cong, Lin; Zhang, Jian-Xu; Keightley, Peter D

    2015-10-01

    The brown rat, Rattus norvegicus, is both a notorious pest and a frequently used model in biomedical research. By analyzing genome sequences of 12 wild-caught brown rats from their presumed ancestral range in NE China, along with the sequence of a black rat, Rattus rattus, we investigate the selective and demographic forces shaping variation in the genome. We estimate that the recent effective population size (Ne) of this species = [Formula: see text], based on silent site diversity. We compare patterns of diversity in these genomes with patterns in multiple genome sequences of the house mouse (Mus musculus castaneus), which has a much larger Ne. This reveals an important role for variation in the strength of genetic drift in mammalian genome evolution. By a Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent analysis of demographic history, we infer that there has been a recent population size bottleneck in wild rats, which we date to approximately 20,000 years ago. Consistent with this, wild rat populations have experienced an increased flux of mildly deleterious mutations, which segregate at higher frequencies in protein-coding genes and conserved noncoding elements. This leads to negative estimates of the rate of adaptive evolution (α) in proteins and conserved noncoding elements, a result which we discuss in relation to the strongly positive estimates observed in wild house mice. As a consequence of the population bottleneck, wild rats also show a markedly slower decay of linkage disequilibrium with physical distance than wild house mice.

  17. Legacy lost: genetic variability and population size of extirpated US grey wolves (Canis lupus).

    PubMed

    Leonard, Jennifer A; Vilà, Carles; Wayne, Robert K

    2005-01-01

    By the mid 20th century, the grey wolf (Canis lupus) was exterminated from most of the conterminous United States (cUS) and Mexico. However, because wolves disperse over long distances, extant populations in Canada and Alaska might have retained a substantial proportion of the genetic diversity once found in the cUS. We analysed mitochondrial DNA sequences of 34 pre-extermination wolves and found that they had more than twice the diversity of their modern conspecifics, implying a historic population size of several hundred thousand wolves in the western cUS and Mexico. Further, two-thirds of the haplotypes found in the historic sample are unique. Sequences from Mexican grey wolves (C. l. baileyi) and some historic grey wolves defined a unique southern clade supporting a much wider geographical mandate for the reintroduction of Mexican wolves than currently planned. Our results highlight the genetic consequences of population extinction within Ice Age refugia and imply that restoration goals for grey wolves in the western cUS include far less area and target vastly lower population sizes than existed historically.

  18. Bolton tooth size ratio among Sudanese Population sample: A preliminary study

    PubMed Central

    Abdalla Hashim, Ala’a Hayder; Eldin, AL-Hadi Mohi; Hashim, Hayder Abdalla

    2015-01-01

    Background: The study of the mesiodistal size, the morphology of teeth and dental arch may play an important role in clinical dentistry, as well as other sciences such as Forensic Dentistry and Anthropology. Aims: The aims of the present study were to establish tooth-size ratio in Sudanese sample with Class I normal occlusion, to compare the tooth-size ratio between the present study and Bolton's study and between genders. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of dental casts of 60 subjects (30 males and 30 females). Bolton formula was used to compute the overall and anterior ratio. The correlation coefficient between the anterior ratio and overall ratio was tested, and Student's t-test was used to compare tooth-size ratios between males and females, and between the present study and Bolton's result. Results: The results of the overall and anterior ratio was relatively similar to the mean values reported by Bolton, and there were no statistically significant differences between the mean values of the anterior ratio and the overall ratio between males and females. The correlation coefficient was (r = 0.79). Conclusions: The result obtained was similar to the Caucasian race. However, the reality indicates that the Sudanese population consisted of different racial groups; therefore, the firm conclusion is difficult to draw. Since this sample is not representative for the Sudanese population, hence, a further study with a large sample collected from the different parts of the Sudan is required. PMID:26229948

  19. Finite difference approximations for a size-structured population model with distributed states in the recruitment.

    PubMed

    Ackleh, Azmy S; Farkas, József Z; Li, Xinyu; Ma, Baoling

    2015-01-01

    We consider a size-structured population model where individuals may be recruited into the population at different sizes. First- and second-order finite difference schemes are developed to approximate the solution of the model. The convergence of the approximations to a unique weak solution is proved. We then show that as the distribution of the new recruits become concentrated at the smallest size, the weak solution of the distributed states-at-birth model converges to the weak solution of the classical Gurtin-McCamy-type size-structured model in the weak* topology. Numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the achievement of the desired accuracy of the two methods for smooth solutions as well as the superior performance of the second-order method in resolving solution-discontinuities. Finally, we provide an example where supercritical Hopf-bifurcation occurs in the limiting single state-at-birth model and we apply the second-order numerical scheme to show that such bifurcation also occurs in the distributed model.

  20. Extent of Linkage Disequilibrium and Effective Population Size in Four South African Sanga Cattle Breeds.

    PubMed

    Makina, Sithembile O; Taylor, Jeremy F; van Marle-Köster, Este; Muchadeyi, Farai C; Makgahlela, Mahlako L; MacNeil, Michael D; Maiwashe, Azwihangwisi

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge on the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in livestock populations is essential to determine the minimum distance between markers required for effective coverage when conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This study evaluated the extent of LD, persistence of allelic phase and effective population size (Ne) for four Sanga cattle breeds in South Africa including the Afrikaner (n = 44), Nguni (n = 54), Drakensberger (n = 47), and Bonsmara breeds (n = 46), using Angus (n = 31) and Holstein (n = 29) as reference populations. We found that moderate LD extends up to inter-marker distances of 40-60 kb in Angus (0.21) and Holstein (0.21) and up to 100 kb in Afrikaner (0.20). This suggests that genomic selection and association studies performed within these breeds using an average inter-marker r (2)≥ 0.20 would require about 30,000-50,000 SNPs. However, r (2)≥ 0.20 extended only up to 10-20 kb in the Nguni and Drakensberger and 20-40 kb in the Bonsmara indicating that 75,000 to 150,000 SNPs would be necessary for GWAS in these breeds. Correlation between alleles at contiguous loci indicated that phase was not strongly preserved between breeds. This suggests the need for breed-specific reference populations in which a much greater density of markers should be scored to identify breed specific haplotypes which may then be imputed into multi-breed commercial populations. Analysis of effective population size based on the extent of LD, revealed Ne = 95 (Nguni), Ne = 87 (Drakensberger), Ne = 77 (Bonsmara), and Ne = 41 (Afrikaner). Results of this study form the basis for implementation of genomic selection programs in the Sanga breeds of South Africa.

  1. Genetic structure and AFLP variation of remnant populations in the rare plant Pedicularis palustris (Scrophulariaceae) and its relation to population size and reproductive components.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, K; Jensen, K

    2000-05-01

    We investigated plant reproduction in relation to genetic structure, population size, and habitat quality in 13 populations of the rare biennial plant Pedicularis palustris with 3-28500 flowering individuals. We used AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) profiles to analyze genetic similarities among 129 individuals (3-15 per population). In a cluster analysis of genetic similarities most individuals (67%) were arranged in population-specific clusters. Analysis of molecular variance indicated significant genetic differentiation among populations and among and within subpopulations (P < 0.001). Gene flow (N(e) m) was low (0.298). On average, plants produced 55 capsules, 17 seeds per fruit, and 42 seedlings in the following growing season. The number of seeds per capsule was independent of population size and of genetic variability. In contrast, the number of capsules per plant (P < 0.05) and the number of seedlings per plant (P < 0.05) were positively correlated with population size. The relation between population size and the number of seeds per plant was not significant (P = 0.075). The number of capsules and of seeds and seedlings per plant (P < 0.01) were positively correlated with genetic variability. Genetic variability was independent of actual population size, suggesting that historical population processes have to be taken into account, too. Stepwise multiple regressions revealed additional significant relationships of habitat parameters (soil pH, C:N ratio), vegetation composition, and standing crop on reproductive components. We conclude that populations of P. palustris are genetically isolated and that reproductive success most likely is influenced by population size, genetic variability, and habitat quality. Management strategies such as moderate grazing, mowing, and artificial gene flow should endeavor to increase population size as well as genetic variation.

  2. Albedo, Size and Taxonomy of the Small Body Populations Outside the Main Belt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grav, Tommy; Mainzer, A.; Bauer, J. M.; Masiero, J. R.; Nugent, C. R.; Stevenson, R. A.

    2013-10-01

    Using the data from the WISE/NEOWISE mission we have derived albedo and size distribution of more than ~1200 Cybeles, ~1000 Hildas, ~1700 Jovian Trojans and a dozen irregular satellites of Jupiter and Saturn. This dataset increases by an order of magnitude our knowledge of the makeup of the small body populations between the Main Belt and Saturn. We find that all these populations are dominated by low albedo objects, with only the Cybele and Hilda populations having a small (less than 10% among the Cybeles and less than 1% among the Hildas, Trojans and irregular satellites) fraction of objects with albedos higher than 15%. Using the near-infrared albedos (in the 3.4 and 4.6 micron bands) we were also able to derive the taxonomic classifications of the largest objects in each populations, showing that they are dominated by C-, P- and D-type surfaces. The dominance of these dark bodies indicate two possible formation scenarios. The small body populations may have been formed in situ beyond the snow line, potentially serving as primitive bodies that can provide significant insight into the composition of the early Solar Nebula in the region of the Giant Planets. Alternatively, they may be captured bodies that were perturbed from the region outside the Giant Planets as the planets migrated during the early stages of Solar System formation. This allows for insight into the composition of the Trans-Neptunian population by study of populations that are closer, brighter and more accessible. The low percentages of the more stony objects common in the Main Asteroid Belt indicates that few of these objects were embedded in the populations, imposing significant constraints on the migration of Jupiter inside its current orbit.

  3. The coefficient of error of optical fractionator population size estimates: a computer simulation comparing three estimators.

    PubMed

    Glaser, E M; Wilson, P D

    1998-11-01

    The optical fractionator is a design-based two-stage systematic sampling method that is used to estimate the number of cells in a specified region of an organ when the population is too large to count exhaustively. The fractionator counts the cells found in optical disectors that have been systematically sampled in serial sections. Heretofore, evaluations of optical fractionator performance have been made by performing tests on actual tissue sections, but it is difficult to evaluate the coefficient of error (CE), i.e. the precision of a population size estimate, by using biological tissue samples because they do not permit a comparison of an estimated CE with the true CE. However, computer simulation does permit making such comparisons while avoiding the observational biases inherent in working with biological tissue. This study is the first instance in which computer simulation has been applied to population size estimation by the optical fractionator. We used computer simulation to evaluate the performance of three CE estimators. The estimated CEs were evaluated in tests of three types of non-random cell population distribution and one random cell population distribution. The non-random population distributions varied by differences in 'intensity', i.e. the expected cell counts per disector, according to both section and disector location within the section. Two distributions were sinusoidal and one was linearly increasing; in all three there was a six-fold difference between the high and low intensities. The sinusoidal distributions produced either a peak or a depression of cell intensity at the centre of the simulated region. The linear cell intensity gradually increased from the beginning to the end of the region that contained the cells. The random population distribution had a constant intensity over the region. A 'test condition' was defined by its population distribution, the period between consecutive sampled sections and the spacing between consecutive

  4. Spatial homogeneity and temporal heterogeneity of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) microsatellites: effective population sizes and management implications.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Robert W; Ball, A O; Mash, Lisa R

    2002-12-01

    The red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) is one of a number of species that occupy estuarine waters as juveniles and migrate to open ocean waters as adults. This species has experienced dramatic declines in population numbers over the past 2 decades, which has prompted increasing fishery restriction. In addition, hatchery augmentation has been initiated by several states to increase the abundance of juveniles in local areas. In South Carolina hatchery-reared fish have made significant (20%) contributions to the juvenile population on very local scales. As hatchery-reared fish are typically produced by a small number of individuals, the genetic consequences of augmentation programs are of concern. In this article we assess genetic variation at 5 microsatellite loci in S. ocellatus. The data indicate little geographic differentiation among samples collected along the Atlantic Coast of the United States, but substantial differences among year classes taken from South Carolina. The gene frequency differences among year classes were used to estimate the effective population size (Nc) of S. ocellatus in South Carolina and suggested that Ne was less than 300 from 1990 to 1993 and increased to about 1000 in 1994 and 1995. Whether this increase reflects the effectiveness of management regulations or simply a random fluctuation in S. ocellatus populations is not clear. The data suggest that a limited number of individuals produce the bulk of a given year class and support the sweepstakes hypothesis. Given the small Ne and estimates of the contribution of hatchery-reared fish to the wild stock, it is suggested that programs have the potential to increase, rather than decrease; Ne in the wild.

  5. Relationships among vocabulary size, nonverbal cognition, and spoken word recognition in adults with cochlear implants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collison, Elizabeth A.; Munson, Benjamin; Carney, Arlene E.

    2002-05-01

    Recent research has attempted to identify the factors that predict speech perception performance among users of cochlear implants (CIs). Studies have found that approximately 20%-60% of the variance in speech perception scores can be accounted for by factors including duration of deafness, etiology, type of device, and length of implant use, leaving approximately 50% of the variance unaccounted for. The current study examines the extent to which vocabulary size and nonverbal cognitive ability predict CI listeners' spoken word recognition. Fifteen postlingually deafened adults with nucleus or clarion CIs were given standardized assessments of nonverbal cognitive ability and expressive vocabulary size: the Expressive Vocabulary Test, the Test of Nonverbal Intelligence-III, and the Woodcock-Johnson-III Test of Cognitive Ability, Verbal Comprehension subtest. Two spoken word recognition tasks were administered. In the first, listeners identified isophonemic CVC words. In the second, listeners identified gated words varying in lexical frequency and neighborhood density. Analyses will examine the influence of lexical frequency and neighborhood density on the uniqueness point in the gating task, as well as relationships among nonverbal cognitive ability, vocabulary size, and the two spoken word recognition measures. [Work supported by NIH Grant P01 DC00110 and by the Lions 3M Hearing Foundation.

  6. Components of the metabolic syndrome differ between young and old adults in the US population.

    PubMed

    Sumner, Andrew D; Sardi, Gabriel L; Reed, James F

    2012-08-01

    Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is high in the United States and is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. The authors examined whether the prevalence of the MetS and its components differs across age groups. Data were analyzed from 4 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys between the years 1999 and 2006. Prevalence of MetS as defined by the Third Report of the Adult Treatment Panel criteria and prevalence of associated cardiac risk factors were determined in 41,474 participants aged 18 years and older without a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD). All estimates were weighted. Prevalence of MetS among asymptomatic adults without CVD was 20.5% and remained stable for the total population during survey periods. Prevalence of MetS increased with age: 6.6% in young adults (age 18-29 years) and 34.6% in older adults (70 and older). Components of MetS differed between young and old adults. Young adults had lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, less glucose intolerance, and less hypertension. This study provides an estimate of MetS prevalence in asymptomatic adults in the United States during an 8-year period revealing that MetS affects a large number of Americans. Components of MetS differ between young and old adults and may have important implications in their clinical management.

  7. Periodontal status in an urban adult population in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Söder, P O; Jin, L J; Söder, B; Wikner, S

    1994-04-01

    The purpose was to describe the current periodontal status in a Swedish urban population aged 31-40 yr. 1681 individuals, 840 men and 841 women, participated in the study. 68.5% of the subjects had low amount of plaque, 82.8% low level of calculus and 28.9% healthy gingiva or mild gingivitis. 82.8% of the subjects had no pockets with probing depth (PD) > or = 5 mm. 4.9% of the subjects had one tooth with PD > or = 5 mm, 6.7% 2-5 teeth, 2.4% 6-9 teeth and 3.2% > or = 10 teeth with pockets. 55.8% of the subjects had no missing teeth, third molars excluded. 16.5% had one tooth missing, 23.8% 2-5 teeth, 2.7% 6-9 teeth and 1.2% > or = 10 teeth. 8.6% of the subjects had at least one front tooth missing, 28.7% one premolar and 24.1% one molar missing. Men had significantly higher scores than women for plaque (DI-S), calculus (CI-S), gingivitis (GI-M), and number and percent of remaining teeth with PD > or = 5 mm. Smokers had significantly higher scores than non-smokers for DI-S, CI-S, GI-M, number and percent of remaining teeth with PD > or = 5 mm, and number of missing teeth. The individuals who visited the dentist every year had better oral hygiene and gingival status than those who attended for > 3 yr. The multiple regression analysis showed that calculus (P = 0.0001) smoking (P = 0.001), and dental visits (P = 0.0284) were significantly correlated to the number of teeth with PD > or = 5 mm.

  8. Size at birth and adult fat mass in twin sheep are determined in early gestation

    PubMed Central

    Hancock, S N; Oliver, M H; McLean, C; Jaquiery, A L; Bloomfield, F H

    2012-01-01

    Size at birth is related to adult health outcomes. Twins are born smaller than singletons; this has been assumed to be secondary to limited nutrient supply in late gestation. We hypothesised that growth trajectory in twins, and the adult consequences of being conceived a twin, are determined in early gestation. Twin pregnancies in sheep were randomised to reduction of one twin on day 42 of a 148 day pregnancy by intra-thoracic KCl (Reductions, n = 46) or a sham procedure (Twins, n = 22). Singleton-bearing ewes also underwent a sham procedure (n = 27). Ewes lambed spontaneously. Linear measures of size at birth were similar in Twins and Reductions, and significantly less than in Singletons. Birthweight was lower in Twins and Reductions than in Singletons, and less in Twins than in Reductions (means (SEM): Singletons, liveborn n = 23: 6.59 (0.17) kg; Twins, liveborn n = 36: 5.23 (0.16) kg; Reductions, liveborn n = 27: 5.76 (0.15) kg; all comparisons P < 0.05). Reductions grew most rapidly between birth and weaning (Singletons, 20.0 (0.4) g kg−1 day−1; Twins, 20.0 (0.3) g kg−1 day−1; Reductions, 21.0 (0.3) g kg−1 day−1, P < 0.05) and were of similar weight as Singletons by weaning; Twins remained smaller by weaning but grew most rapidly thereafter (Singletons, 1.6 (0.1) g kg−1 day−1; Twins, 2.1 (0.1) g kg−1 day−1; Reductions, 1.6 (0.1) g kg−1 day−1, P < 0.01), so that all groups had similar weight at 2 years. However, Twins and Reductions had greater percentage fat mass than Singletons at 2 years (Singletons, 11.1 (1.1)%; Twins, 14.8 (1.2)%; Reductions, 15.5 (1.1)%, P < 0.05). Thus, in twins, fetal growth trajectory, linear size at birth and adult fat mass are largely determined in early gestation. If this is also true in humans, there are important implications for interventions aimed at optimising fetal growth and pregnancy outcome. PMID:22183720

  9. The Temporal Spectrum of Adult Mosquito Population Fluctuations: Conceptual and Modeling Implications

    PubMed Central

    Jian, Yun; Silvestri, Sonia; Brown, Jeff; Hickman, Rick; Marani, Marco

    2014-01-01

    An improved understanding of mosquito population dynamics under natural environmental forcing requires adequate field observations spanning the full range of temporal scales over which mosquito abundance fluctuates in natural conditions. Here we analyze a 9-year daily time series of uninterrupted observations of adult mosquito abundance for multiple mosquito species in North Carolina to identify characteristic scales of temporal variability, the processes generating them, and the representativeness of observations at different sampling resolutions. We focus in particular on Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura and, using a combination of spectral analysis and modeling, we find significant population fluctuations with characteristic periodicity between 2 days and several years. Population dynamical modelling suggests that the observed fast fluctuations scales (2 days-weeks) are importantly affected by a varying mosquito activity in response to rapid changes in meteorological conditions, a process neglected in most representations of mosquito population dynamics. We further suggest that the range of time scales over which adult mosquito population variability takes place can be divided into three main parts. At small time scales (indicatively 2 days-1 month) observed population fluctuations are mainly driven by behavioral responses to rapid changes in weather conditions. At intermediate scales (1 to several month) environmentally-forced fluctuations in generation times, mortality rates, and density dependence determine the population characteristic response times. At longer scales (annual to multi-annual) mosquito populations follow seasonal and inter-annual environmental changes. We conclude that observations of adult mosquito populations should be based on a sub-weekly sampling frequency and that predictive models of mosquito abundance must include behavioral dynamics to separate the effects of a varying mosquito activity from actual changes in the abundance of the

  10. The temporal spectrum of adult mosquito population fluctuations: conceptual and modeling implications.

    PubMed

    Jian, Yun; Silvestri, Sonia; Brown, Jeff; Hickman, Rick; Marani, Marco

    2014-01-01

    An improved understanding of mosquito population dynamics under natural environmental forcing requires adequate field observations spanning the full range of temporal scales over which mosquito abundance fluctuates in natural conditions. Here we analyze a 9-year daily time series of uninterrupted observations of adult mosquito abundance for multiple mosquito species in North Carolina to identify characteristic scales of temporal variability, the processes generating them, and the representativeness of observations at different sampling resolutions. We focus in particular on Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura and, using a combination of spectral analysis and modeling, we find significant population fluctuations with characteristic periodicity between 2 days and several years. Population dynamical modelling suggests that the observed fast fluctuations scales (2 days-weeks) are importantly affected by a varying mosquito activity in response to rapid changes in meteorological conditions, a process neglected in most representations of mosquito population dynamics. We further suggest that the range of time scales over which adult mosquito population variability takes place can be divided into three main parts. At small time scales (indicatively 2 days-1 month) observed population fluctuations are mainly driven by behavioral responses to rapid changes in weather conditions. At intermediate scales (1 to several month) environmentally-forced fluctuations in generation times, mortality rates, and density dependence determine the population characteristic response times. At longer scales (annual to multi-annual) mosquito populations follow seasonal and inter-annual environmental changes. We conclude that observations of adult mosquito populations should be based on a sub-weekly sampling frequency and that predictive models of mosquito abundance must include behavioral dynamics to separate the effects of a varying mosquito activity from actual changes in the abundance of the

  11. Effect of distance-related heterogeneity on population size estimates from point counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Efford, Murray G.; Dawson, Deanna K.

    2009-01-01

    Point counts are used widely to index bird populations. Variation in the proportion of birds counted is a known source of error, and for robust inference it has been advocated that counts be converted to estimates of absolute population size. We used simulation to assess nine methods for the conduct and analysis of point counts when the data included distance-related heterogeneity of individual detection probability. Distance from the observer is a ubiquitous source of heterogeneity, because nearby birds are more easily detected than distant ones. Several recent methods (dependent double-observer, time of first detection, time of detection, independent multiple-observer, and repeated counts) do not account for distance-related heterogeneity, at least in their simpler forms. We assessed bias in estimates of population size by simulating counts with fixed radius w over four time intervals (occasions). Detection probability per occasion was modeled as a half-normal function of distance with scale parameter sigma and intercept g(0) = 1.0. Bias varied with sigma/w; values of sigma inferred from published studies were often 50% for a 100-m fixed-radius count. More critically, the bias of adjusted counts sometimes varied more than that of unadjusted counts, and inference from adjusted counts would be less robust. The problem was not solved by using mixture models or including distance as a covariate. Conventional distance sampling performed well in simulations, but its assumptions are difficult to meet in the field. We conclude that no existing method allows effective estimation of population size from point counts.

  12. Associations among depressive symptoms, childhood abuse, neuroticism, and adult stressful life events in the general adult population

    PubMed Central

    Ono, Kotaro; Takaesu, Yoshikazu; Nakai, Yukiei; Shimura, Akiyoshi; Ono, Yasuyuki; Murakoshi, Akiko; Matsumoto, Yasunori; Tanabe, Hajime; Kusumi, Ichiro; Inoue, Takeshi

    2017-01-01

    Background Recent studies have suggested that the interactions among several factors affect the onset, progression, and prognosis of major depressive disorder. This study investigated how childhood abuse, neuroticism, and adult stressful life events interact with one another and affect depressive symptoms in the general adult population. Subjects and methods A total of 413 participants from the nonclinical general adult population completed the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, the Child Abuse and Trauma Scale, the neuroticism subscale of the shortened Eysenck Personality Questionnaire – Revised, and the Life Experiences Survey, which are self-report scales. Structural equation modeling (Mplus version 7.3) and single and multiple regressions were used to analyze the data. Results Childhood abuse, neuroticism, and negative evaluation of life events increased the severity of the depressive symptoms directly. Childhood abuse also indirectly increased the negative appraisal of life events and the severity of the depressive symptoms through enhanced neuroticism in the structural equation modeling. Limitations There was recall bias in this study. The causal relationship was not clear because this study was conducted using a cross-sectional design. Conclusion This study suggested that neuroticism is the mediating factor for the two effects of childhood abuse on adulthood depressive symptoms and negative evaluation of life events. Childhood abuse directly and indirectly predicted the severity of depressive symptoms. PMID:28243100

  13. Reduction of egg size in natural populations of threespine stickleback infected with a cestode macroparasite.

    PubMed

    Heins, David C; Baker, John A

    2003-02-01

    Manifestations of infectious disease may represent host adaptations to avoid or reduce the effects of infection on host fitness, parasite manipulations that benefit the pathogen's fitness, or nonadaptive side effects of parasitism. Threespine stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from Alaska and the cestode macroparasite Schistocephalus solidus provide an excellent system for study of the effects of parasitism on host egg size because females in populations there are capable of producing clutches of eggs in the face of substantial infection, contrary to the inhibition of reproduction that has been observed in other stickleback populations or other species of fish. A side effect resulting in reduction of mean ovummass among infected females was predicted based on the egg production process in female stickleback, the considerable energy and resource demands of S. solidus, and the chronic and progressive nature of the effects the macroparasite should have on the host fish. In each of 9 populations of G. aculeatus representing replicate natural experiments in lakes scattered across the Matanuska-Susitna Valley and the Kenai Peninsula of south-central Alaska and among all populations combined, the mean ovum mass of infected female fish is significantly reduced in comparison with that of uninfected females taken from the same population at the same time. Reduction in mean female egg mass ranged from 8 to 32% across all populations. To examine whether reduction in mean female ovum mass was a nonadaptive side effect or an adaptation, relatively large data sets from 2 of the populations were used. Mean ovum mass of infected females was predicted to decrease directly in relation to parasite index (PI) if the diminution in mean egg mass were the result of a nonadaptive side effect resulting from host nutrient loss. Alternatively, the absence of a relationship between PI and reduction in ovum mass is predicted if decreases in mean female ovum mass result from host or

  14. Rapid evolution in the wild: changes in body size, life-history traits, and behavior in hunted populations of the Japanese mamushi snake.

    PubMed

    Sasaki, Kiyoshi; Fox, Stanley F; Duvall, David

    2009-02-01

    Rapid evolution caused by human exploitation of wildlife is not usually addressed in studies of the impacts of such exploitation despite its direct relevance to population persistence. Japanese mamushi (Gloydius blomhoffii), an endemic venomous snake of the Japanese archipelago, has been heavily hunted by humans, and many populations appear to be declining or are already extirpated. We compared local populations that have been hunted regularly with populations that have not been hunted. Mamushi in hunted populations were smaller, had fewer vertebrae, produced more and smaller offspring, had increased reproductive effort among smaller females, and in nature fled at greater distances from an approaching human and were less defensive than mamushi in unhunted populations, as predicted from life-history theory. Heritability estimates for body size, number of vertebrae, and antipredator behavior were statistically significant, and neonates from hunted sites showed the same distribution of altered characters (compared with those from unhunted sites) as adults. Thus, distribution of the divergent trait between hunted and unhunted sites appeared in part to be genetically based, which suggests rapid evolution to human predation pressures. Trait distributions in hunted populations probably deviate from naturally (as opposed to anthropogenically) selected optima and, therefore, may have long-term negative repercussions on population persistence. Because rapid evolution affects a suite of parameters that characterize exploited populations, accurate understanding of the impacts of exploitation and effective resource management and conservation can only be achieved if evolutionary consequences are considered explicitly.

  15. The cultural evolution of human communication systems in different sized populations: usability trumps learnability.

    PubMed

    Fay, Nicolas; Ellison, T Mark

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both), and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity), but harder to learn (identification accuracy) for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs) is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability.

  16. Using Wolbachia Releases to Estimate Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size and Survival

    PubMed Central

    Garcia, Gabriela de Azambuja; dos Santos, Lilha Maria Barbosa; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Mosquitoes carrying the endosymbiont bacterium Wolbachia have been deployed in field trials as a biological control intervention due to Wolbachia effects on reducing transmission of arboviruses. We performed mark, release and recapture (MRR) experiments using Wolbachia as an internal marker with daily collections with BG-Traps during the first two weeks of releases in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The MRR design allowed us to investigate two critical parameters that determine whether Wolbachia would successful invade a field population: the probability of daily survival (PDS) of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti females, and the wild population density during releases. Released females had a PDS of 0.82 and 0.89 in the first and second weeks, respectively, immediately after releases, which is well within the range of previous estimates of survivorship of wild mosquitoes in Rio de Janeiro. Abundance estimation of wild population varied up to 10-fold higher depending on the estimation method used (634–3565 females on the average-difference model to 6365–16188 females according to Lincoln-Petersen). Wolbachia-released mosquitoes were lower than the density estimation of their wild counterparts, irrespectively of the model used. Individually screening mosquitoes for the presence of Wolbachia reduced uncertainty on abundance estimations due to fluctuation in capturing per week. A successful invasion into local population requires Ae. aegypti fitness is unaffected by Wolbachia presence, but also reliable estimates on the population size of wild mosquitoes. PMID:27479050

  17. From intracellular signaling to population oscillations: bridging size- and time-scales in collective behavior

    PubMed Central

    Sgro, Allyson E; Schwab, David J; Noorbakhsh, Javad; Mestler, Troy; Mehta, Pankaj; Gregor, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Collective behavior in cellular populations is coordinated by biochemical signaling networks within individual cells. Connecting the dynamics of these intracellular networks to the population phenomena they control poses a considerable challenge because of network complexity and our limited knowledge of kinetic parameters. However, from physical systems, we know that behavioral changes in the individual constituents of a collectively behaving system occur in a limited number of well-defined classes, and these can be described using simple models. Here, we apply such an approach to the emergence of collective oscillations in cellular populations of the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Through direct tests of our model with quantitative in vivo measurements of single-cell and population signaling dynamics, we show how a simple model can effectively describe a complex molecular signaling network at multiple size and temporal scales. The model predicts novel noise-driven single-cell and population-level signaling phenomena that we then experimentally observe. Our results suggest that like physical systems, collective behavior in biology may be universal and described using simple mathematical models. PMID:25617347

  18. Preferred habitat and effective population size drive landscape genetic patterns in an endangered species

    PubMed Central

    Weckworth, Byron V.; Musiani, Marco; DeCesare, Nicholas J.; McDevitt, Allan D.; Hebblewhite, Mark; Mariani, Stefano

    2013-01-01

    Landscape genetics provides a framework for pinpointing environmental features that determine the important exchange of migrants among populations. These studies usually test the significance of environmental variables on gene flow, yet ignore one fundamental driver of genetic variation in small populations, effective population size, Ne. We combined both approaches in evaluating genetic connectivity of a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou. We used least-cost paths to calculate matrices of resistance distance for landscape variables (preferred habitat, anthropogenic features and predation risk) and population-pairwise harmonic means of Ne, and correlated them with genetic distances, FST and Dc. Results showed that spatial configuration of preferred habitat and Ne were the two best predictors of genetic relationships. Additionally, controlling for the effect of Ne increased the strength of correlations of environmental variables with genetic distance, highlighting the significant underlying effect of Ne in modulating genetic drift and perceived spatial connectivity. We therefore have provided empirical support to emphasize preventing increased habitat loss and promoting population growth to ensure metapopulation viability. PMID:24004939

  19. The Cultural Evolution of Human Communication Systems in Different Sized Populations: Usability Trumps Learnability

    PubMed Central

    Fay, Nicolas; Ellison, T. Mark

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both), and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity), but harder to learn (identification accuracy) for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs) is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability. PMID:23967243

  20. Matrix models for size-structured populations: unrealistic fast growth or simply diffusion?

    PubMed

    Picard, Nicolas; Liang, Jingjing

    2014-01-01

    Matrix population models are widely used to study population dynamics but have been criticized because their outputs are sensitive to the dimension of the matrix (or, equivalently, to the class width). This sensitivity is concerning for the population growth rate (λ) because this is an intrinsic characteristic of the population that should not depend on the model specification. It has been suggested that the sensitivity of λ to matrix dimension was linked to the existence of fast pathways (i.e. the fraction of individuals that systematically move up a class), whose proportion increases when class width increases. We showed that for matrix population models with growth transition only from class i to class i + 1, λ was independent of the class width when the mortality and the recruitment rates were constant, irrespective of the growth rate. We also showed that if there were indeed fast pathways, there were also in about the same proportion slow pathways (i.e. the fraction of individuals that systematically remained in the same class), and that they jointly act as a diffusion process (where diffusion here is the movement in size of an individual whose size increments are random according to a normal distribution with mean zero). For 53 tree species from a tropical rain forest in the Central African Republic, the diffusion resulting from common matrix dimensions was much stronger than would be realistic. Yet, the sensitivity of λ to matrix dimension for a class width in the range 1-10 cm was small, much smaller than the sampling uncertainty on the value of λ. Moreover, λ could either increase or decrease when class width increased depending on the species. Overall, even if the class width should be kept small enough to limit diffusion, it had little impact on the estimate of λ for tree species.

  1. Size-frequency distribution of different secondary crater populations: 1. Equilibrium caused by secondary impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Zhiyong

    2016-12-01

    Accumulation of impact craters is the major reason causing equilibrium of crater populations on airless planetary surfaces. Besides primary craters, the effect of widespread secondaries on the equilibrium of local crater populations is little studied. Here the different secondary crater populations formed by the Hokusai crater on Mercury are systematically studied, and they are compared with those on the Moon to investigate their contribution to the evolution of local crater populations. Self-secondaries cause equilibrium on continuous ejecta deposits in a short time, and the equilibrium crater population has a differential size-frequency distribution (SFD) slope of about -3. Background secondaries are abundant on Mercury, and equilibrium caused by a combination of primaries and potential background secondaries follows the same pattern on the Moon and Mercury. The spatial dispersion of fragments that form both near-field and distant secondaries is the major factor affecting the degree of mutual destruction and thus the final crater SFD. Some clustered distant secondaries on Mercury are likely formed by individual fragments considering their large spatial dispersion and identical morphology with same-sized primaries, and the SFD rollovers of these secondaries possibly reflect the inherent SFD rollovers of the impact fragments. Near-field secondaries and many other distant secondaries have morphology and spatial distribution that are consistent with being formed by clustered fragments, and mutual destruction of secondaries may be the major reason causing the observed SFD rollovers. Heterogeneous secondary impacts are a potential explanation for both different crater densities within the equilibrium diameter range and different regolith thicknesses on coeval surfaces.

  2. Albedo, Size and Taxonomy of the Small Body Populations Outside the Main Belt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grav, Tommy; Mainzer, Amy; Bauer, James; Masiero, Joseph R.; Cutri, Roc; Nugent, Carrie; Sonnett, Sarah; Kramer, Emily A.

    2015-11-01

    Using the data from the WISE/NEOWISE mission we have derived albedo and size distributions of ~1200 Cybeles, ~1000 Hildas, ~1700 Jovian Trojans and a dozen irregular satellites of Jupiter and Saturn. These data increases by an order of magnitude our knowledge of the makeup of the small body populations between the Main Belt and Saturn. We find that all these populations are dominated by low albedo objects, with only the Cybeles (with less than 10%) having any significant fraction of possible interloper objects with albedo higher than 15%. Using the near-infrared albedos (in the 3.4 and 4.6μm bands, denoted W1 and W2 respectively) we were able to derive the taxonomic classifications of the largest objects in each population, showing that they are dominated by surfaces that are similar to C-, P- and D-type asteroids. The dominance of these dark, primitive surfaces indicate two possible formation scenarios. These small body populations may have been formed in situ beyond the snow line, potentially serving as bodies that can provide significant insight into the composition of the early Solar Nebula in the region of the current Giant Planets. Alternatively, they may be captured bodies that were perturbed from the region outside the Giant Planets as the planets migrated during the early stages of Solar System formation. This allows for insight into the composition of the Trans-Neptunian population by study of populations that are significantly closer, brighter and more accessible. The low percentages of potentially higher albedo, stony objects common in the Main Asteroid Belt indicates that only a few of these objects have embedded themselves into these populations, potentially imposing significant constraints on the migration of Jupiter inside its current orbit.

  3. Effective population size dynamics and the demographic collapse of Bornean orang-utans.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Reeta; Arora, Natasha; Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W; Van Schaik, Carel P; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200-2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess

  4. Effective Population Size Dynamics and the Demographic Collapse of Bornean Orang-Utans

    PubMed Central

    Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W.; Van Schaik, Carel P.; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200–2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess

  5. Hunting, pet trade, and forest size effects on population viability of a critically endangered Neotropical primate, Sapajus xanthosternos (Wied-Neuwied, 1826).

    PubMed

    da Silva, Fabiana Araújo; Canale, Gustavo Rodrigues; Kierulff, Maria Cecília M; Duarte, Gabriela Teixeira; Paglia, Adriano Pereira; Bernardo, Christine S S

    2016-09-01

    The yellow-breasted capuchin monkey (Sapajus xanthosternos) is one of the seven Brazilian primates that are currently threatened with extinction. Although the species is known to be threatened by habitat loss, hunting, and illegal pet trade, few data exist on how these threats influence its long-term population persistence. We conducted population viability analyses (PVAs) to estimate minimum viable populations of S. xanthosternos under 10 threat scenarios (i.e., varying hunting pressure and varying number of infants captured for the pet trade) for five forest fragments with different estimated carrying capacities (K). We also estimated the minimum forest fragment size required to sustain viable populations living under the same 10 threat scenarios, based on critical numbers of K obtained in sensitivity tests, below which the population would be unviable. Our PVAs suggests that hunting has a higher impact on population viability in comparison to threats from the pet trade. Annual losses of adult and young females from hunting had the most detrimental effect on population persistence under all forest fragment sizes. Such hunting pressure is not sustainable for populations living in areas ≤3,460 ha, since these areas may not support populations of ≥84 individuals. The seven largest of the 13 protected areas currently harboring capuchins should be effective at maintaining viable populations in the long term even under the greatest threat scenarios we modeled. Other large forest patches, mainly in the western part of the species distribution, are recommended as priority areas for protection to increase the chances of capuchins' survival for the long term. In addition, forest fragments of ≤782.8 ha cannot maintain viable populations, even when there are no threats from hunting or from captures for the pet trade. Increased law enforcement is necessary to prevent the hunting and capture of capuchins, especially within larger forest fragments. Am. J. Primatol. 78

  6. Population-Based Surveillance for Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Homeless Adults in Toronto

    PubMed Central

    Plevneshi, Agron; Svoboda, Tomislav; Armstrong, Irene; Tyrrell, Gregory J.; Miranda, Anna; Green, Karen; Low, Donald; McGeer, Allison

    2009-01-01

    Background Identification of high-risk populations for serious infection due to S. pneumoniae will permit appropriately targeted prevention programs. Methods We conducted prospective, population-based surveillance for invasive pneumococcal disease and laboratory confirmed pneumococcal pneumonia in homeless adults in Toronto, a Canadian city with a total population of 2.5 M, from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2006. Results We identified 69 cases of invasive pneumococcal disease and 27 cases of laboratory confirmed pneumococcal pneumonia in an estimated population of 5050 homeless adults. The incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in homeless adults was 273 infections per 100,000 persons per year, compared to 9 per 100,000 persons per year in the general adult population. Homeless persons with invasive pneumococcal disease were younger than other adults (median age 46 years vs 67 years, P<.001), and more likely than other adults to be smokers (95% vs. 31%, P<.001), to abuse alcohol (62% vs 15%, P<.001), and to use intravenous drugs (42% vs 4%, P<.001). Relative to age matched controls, they were more likely to have underlying lung disease (12/69, 17% vs 17/272, 6%, P = .006), but not more likely to be HIV infected (17/69, 25% vs 58/282, 21%, P = .73). The proportion of patients with recurrent disease was five fold higher for homeless than other adults (7/58, 12% vs. 24/943, 2.5%, P<.001). In homeless adults, 28 (32%) of pneumococcal isolates were of serotypes included in the 7-valent conjugate vaccine, 42 (48%) of serotypes included in the 13-valent conjugate vaccine, and 72 (83%) of serotypes included in the 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine. Although no outbreaks of disease were identified in shelters, there was evidence of clustering of serotypes suggestive of transmission of pathogenic strains within the homeless population. Conclusions Homeless persons are at high risk of serious pneumococcal infection. Vaccination, physical structure changes or

  7. HIV/AIDS Misconceptions among Latinos: Findings from a Population-Based Survey of California Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ritieni, Assunta; Moskowitz, Joel; Tholandi, Maya

    2008-01-01

    Misconceptions about HIV/AIDS among Latino adults (N=454) in California were examined using data from a population-based telephone survey conducted in 2000. Common misconceptions concerning modes of HIV transmission included transmission via mosquito or animal bite (64.1%), public facilities (48.3%), or kissing someone on the cheek (24.8%). A…

  8. Eysenck Personality Inventory: A Normative Study on an Adult Industrial Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hester, Reid K.; Brown, William R.

    1980-01-01

    Developed norms for an adult industrial population for the Eysenck Personality Inventory. An analysis of scale scores by age, sex, marital status, and occupational category revealed significant differences in extraversion scale scores by age and sex. Norm tables are presented by sex. (Author)

  9. The Contributions of Phonological and Morphological Awareness to Literacy Skills in the Adult Basic Education Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fracasso, Lucille E.; Bangs, Kathryn; Binder, Katherine S.

    2016-01-01

    The Adult Basic Education (ABE) population consists of a wide range of abilities with needs that may be unique to this set of learners. The purpose of this study was to better understand the relative contributions of phonological decoding and morphological awareness to spelling, vocabulary, and comprehension across a sample of ABE students. In…

  10. "Subtypes" in the Presentation of Autistic Traits in the General Adult Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmer, Colin J.; Paton, Bryan; Enticott, Peter G.; Hohwy, Jakob

    2015-01-01

    The present study examined the presentation of autistic traits in a large adult population sample (n = 2,343). Cluster analysis indicated two subgroups with clearly distinguishable trait profiles. One group (n = 1,059) reported greater social difficulties and lower detail orientation, while the second group (n = 1,284) reported lesser social…

  11. Meeting the Needs of Older Adult Refugee Populations With Home Health Services.

    PubMed

    Miner, Sarah M; Liebel, Dianne; Wilde, Mary H; Carroll, Jennifer K; Zicari, Elizabeth; Chalupa, Stephanie

    2015-12-27

    The United States resettles close to 70,000 refugees each year more than any other country in the world. Adult refugees are at risk for negative health outcomes and inefficient health resource use, and meeting the multiple health needs of this vulnerable population is a challenge. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of a home health care (HHC) pilot project on meeting the needs of older adult refugee patients. A retrospective chart review of 40 refugee adult patients who participated in an HHC pilot was done to analyze their health outcomes using OASIS-C data. Participants' pain level, anxiety level, medication management, and activities of daily living management all significantly improved over the course of their HHC episode. Results of this study indicate that HHC has great potential to improve the health of vulnerable refugee populations and assist the families involved in their care.

  12. Lepidium meyenii (Maca) increases litter size in normal adult female mice

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz-Luna, Ana C; Salazar, Stephanie; Aspajo, Norma J; Rubio, Julio; Gasco, Manuel; Gonzales, Gustavo F

    2005-01-01

    Background Lepidium meyenii, known as Maca, grows exclusively in the Peruvian Andes over 4000 m altitude. It has been used traditionally to increase fertility. Previous scientific studies have demonstrated that Maca increases spermatogenesis and epididymal sperm count. The present study was aimed to investigate the effects of Maca on several fertility parameters of female mice at reproductive age. Methods Adult female Balb/C mice were divided at random into three main groups: i) Reproductive indexes group, ii) Implantation sites group and iii) Assessment of uterine weight in ovariectomized mice. Animals received an aqueous extract of lyophilized Yellow Maca (1 g/Kg BW) or vehicle orally as treatment. In the fertility indexes study, animals received the treatment before, during and after gestation. The fertility index, gestation index, post-natal viability index, weaning viability index and sex ratio were calculated. Sexual maturation was evaluated in the female pups by the vaginal opening (VO) day. In the implantation study, females were checked for implantation sites at gestation day 7 and the embryos were counted. In ovariectomized mice, the uterine weight was recorded at the end of treatment. Results Implantation sites were similar in mice treated with Maca and in controls. All reproductive indexes were similar in both groups of treatment. The number of pups per dam at birth and at postnatal day 4 was significantly higher in the group treated with Maca. VO day occurred earlier as litter size was smaller. Maca did not affect VO day. In ovariectomized mice, the treatment with Maca increased significantly the uterine weights in comparison to their respective control group. Conclusion Administration of aqueous extract of Yellow Maca to adult female mice increases the litter size. Moreover, this treatment increases the uterine weight in ovariectomized animals. Our study confirms for the first time some of the traditional uses of Maca to enhance female fertility. PMID

  13. Movement and population size of American shad near a low-head lock and dam

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, M.M.; Isely, J.J.; Bridges, W.C.

    2004-01-01

    We investigated the population size and the proportion of the population of American shad Alosa sapidissima that passed through the New Savannah Bluff Lock and Dam, a low-head lock and dam on the Savannah River in South Carolina and Georgia. We fitted 110 American shad with radio transmitters in 2001 and 2002. All but two fish moved downstream after transmitter implantation. In 2001, a smaller proportion of American shad implanted with radio transmitters earlier in the season returned to the dam than fish released later. Of the fish that returned to the dam, over 50% in 2001 and 9% in 2002 passed through the lock and continued migrating upstream. In both years, the modal daily movement distance was less than 1 km. Movements greater than 5 km/d were generally associated with fish rapidly returning upstream after their initial downstream movement. Continuous diel monitoring indicated that movements greater than 0.1 km/h were more frequent at night than during the day. In both years, American shad were not uniformly distributed over the study area but were predominantly grouped just below the dam and in a relatively large pool approximately 6 km below the dam. We estimated the population size of American shad that reached the New Savannah Bluff Lock and Dam at 157,685 in 2001 and 217,077 in 2002.

  14. Population Size Estimates for Men who Have Sex with Men and Persons who Inject Drugs.

    PubMed

    Oster, Alexandra M; Sternberg, Maya; Lansky, Amy; Broz, Dita; Wejnert, Cyprian; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

    2015-08-01

    Understanding geographic variation in the numbers of men who have sex with men (MSM) and persons who inject drugs (PWID) is critical to targeting and scaling up HIV prevention programs, but population size estimates are not available at generalizable sub-national levels. We analyzed 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data on persons aged 18-59 years. We estimated weighted prevalence of recent (past 12 month) male-male sex and injection drug use by urbanicity (the degree to which a geographic area is urban) and US census region and calculated population sizes. Large metro areas (population ≥1,000,000) had higher prevalence of male-male sex (central areas, 4.4% of men; fringe areas, 2.5%) compared with medium/small metro areas (1.4%) and nonmetro areas (1.1%). Injection drug use did not vary by urbanicity and neither varied by census region. Three-quarters of MSM, but only half of PWID, resided in large metro areas. Two-thirds of MSM and two-thirds of PWID resided in the South and West. Efforts to reach MSM would benefit from being focused in large metro areas, while efforts to reach PWID should be delivered more broadly. These data allow for more effective allocation of funds for prevention programs.

  15. [Characteristics of pedigree cat breeding in the Netherlands: breeds, population increase and litter size].

    PubMed

    Gerrits, P O; Huisman, T; Knol, B W

    1999-03-01

    A survey of the Dutch Cat Fancy was carried out to determine reproductive, patterns of pedigree cats. The data of the present study were obtained by questioning the pedigree registers of the cat clubs participating in the foundation 'Overleg Platform van de Nederlandse Cat Fancy'. The Dutch Cat Fancy registers 34 different cat breeds. From 1992 up to 1996 a total of 25.985 litters were registered. Over this period the number of litters increased from 4989 to 5313. Litters from Longhair and Exotic Shorthair cats comprised the biggest group and accounted for 55% of the total number of litters. However, over this period, the number of Longhair and Exotic Shorthair litters decreased by 9%. Litters from British Shorthair, Birman, Maine Coon and Norwegian Forrest Cat increased in number as did litters from small breeds such as Ragdoll, Bengal and Sphynx. Litters from Abyssinian, Siamese, Oriental Shorthair cats remained relatively the same. The average litter size of the total cat population, based on pedigree certificates, was calculated at 3.3 kittens per litter. For different breeds litter size varied from 2.7 (Longhair and Exotic Shorthair) to 4.3 (Burmese and Maine Coon). Taking into account an average age of 14 years, the total Dutch pedigree cat population was estimated at 240,000 viz. about 10% of the total cat population.

  16. Genetic factors associated with population size may increase extinction risks and decrease colonization potential in a keystone tropical pine

    PubMed Central

    del Castillo, Rafael F; Trujillo-Argueta, Sonia; Sánchez-Vargas, Nahúm; Newton, Adrian C

    2011-01-01

    Pioneer species are essential for forest regeneration and ecosystem resilience. Pinus chiapensis is an endangered pioneer key species for tropical montane cloud forest regeneration in Mesoamerica. Human activities have severely reduced some P. chiapensis populations, which exhibited a small or null colonization potential suggesting the involvement of genetic factors associated with small populations. We explored the relationships between (i) population genetic diversity (allozymes) and population size, including sampling size effects, (ii) fitness estimates associated with colonization potential (seed viability and seedling performance) in a common environment and population size, and (iii) fitness estimates and observed heterozygosity in populations with sizes spanning five orders of magnitude. All the estimates of genetic diversity and fitness increased significantly with population size. Low fitness was detected in progenies of small populations of disturbed and undisturbed habitats. Progenies with the lowest observed heterozygosity displayed the lowest fitness estimates, which, in turn, increased with heterozygosity, but seed viability peaked at intermediate heterozygosity values suggesting inbreeding and outbreeding depression. Inbreeding depression appears to be the most immediate genetic factor in population decline. Conservation efforts should try to maintain large and genetically diverse populations, enhance gene flow by restoring connectivity between adjacent populations, and avoid genetically distant individuals. PMID:25568006

  17. Effect of reaction-step-size noise on the switching dynamics of stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Be'er, Shay; Heller-Algazi, Metar; Assaf, Michael

    2016-05-01

    In genetic circuits, when the messenger RNA lifetime is short compared to the cell cycle, proteins are produced in geometrically distributed bursts, which greatly affects the cellular switching dynamics between different metastable phenotypic states. Motivated by this scenario, we study a general problem of switching or escape in stochastic populations, where influx of particles occurs in groups or bursts, sampled from an arbitrary distribution. The fact that the step size of the influx reaction is a priori unknown and, in general, may fluctuate in time with a given correlation time and statistics, introduces an additional nondemographic reaction-step-size noise into the system. Employing the probability-generating function technique in conjunction with Hamiltonian formulation, we are able to map the problem in the leading order onto solving a stationary Hamilton-Jacobi equation. We show that compared to the "usual case" of single-step influx, bursty influx exponentially decreases the population's mean escape time from its long-lived metastable state. In particular, close to bifurcation we find a simple analytical expression for the mean escape time which solely depends on the mean and variance of the burst-size distribution. Our results are demonstrated on several realistic distributions and compare well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations.

  18. Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Regehr, E.V.; Lunn, N.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

    2007-01-01

    Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5-19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as

  19. Brain system size and adult-adult play in primates: a comparative analysis of the roles of the non-visual neocortex and the amygdala.

    PubMed

    Pellis, Sergio M; Iwaniuk, Andrew N

    2002-08-21

    Recent studies have shown that contrary to expectation, larger-brained species within mammalian orders are not more likely to engage in play. This is true for juvenile rodents, juvenile marsupials and adult primates. Neither does the relative size of the neocortex predict the prevalence of play in species of marsupials and primates. Two methodological limitations may account for the lack of such relationships. Firstly, play may only vary systematically with specific brain areas, not overall size increases in brain tissue. Secondly, the play indices used to measure the variation in play across species may be insufficiently sensitive to the effects of changes in brain size. In this study, we attempt to deal with the first methodological problem. The adult-adult play fighting among species of primates was correlated with the relative size of the non-visual cortex and the amygdala. The statistical analyses used took into account the problems of scaling and corrected for degree of phylogenetic relatedness among the species. The size of the non-visual cortex failed to predict the prevalence of play fighting occurring in either sexual or non-sexual contexts. In contrast, the size of the amygdala significantly predicted the prevalence of sexual play, but not non-sexual play. That is, species with larger sized amygdala are more likely to engage in sexual play. These findings provide new insights into the role of different brain systems in the regulation of play behavior.

  20. Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators

    PubMed Central

    Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T. N. C.

    2017-01-01

    Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the

  1. Long-term sedative use among community-dwelling adults: a population-based analysis

    PubMed Central

    Weymann, Deirdre; Gladstone, Emilie J.; Smolina, Kate; Morgan, Steven G.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Chronic use of benzodiazepines and benzodiazepine-like sedatives (z-drugs) presents substantial risks to people of all ages. We sought to assess trends in long-term sedative use among community-dwelling adults in British Columbia. Methods: Using population-based linked administrative databases, we examined longitudinal trends in age-standardized rates of sedative use among different age groups of community-dwelling adults (age ≥ 18 yr), from 2004 to 2013. For each calendar year, we classified adults as nonusers, short-term users, or long-term users of sedatives based on their patterns of sedative dispensation. For calendar year 2013, we applied cross-sectional analysis and estimated logistic regression models to identify health and socioeconomic risk factors associated with long-term sedative use. Results: More than half (53.4%) of long-term users of sedatives in British Columbia are between ages 18 and 64 years (young and middle-aged adults). From 2004 to 2013, long-term sedative use remained stable among adults more than 65 years of age (older adults) and increased slightly among young and middle-aged adults. Although the use of benzodiazepines decreased during the study period, the trend was offset by equal or greater increases in long-term use of z-drugs. Being an older adult, sick, poor and single were associated with increased odds of long-term sedative use. Interpretation: Despite efforts to stem such patterns of medication use, long-term use of sedatives increased in British Columbia between 2004 and 2013. This increase was driven largely by increased use among middle-aged adults. Future deprescribing efforts that target adults of all ages may help curb this trend.

  2. Effects of population size and isolation on heterosis, mean fitness, and inbreeding depression in a perennial plant.

    PubMed

    Oakley, Christopher G; Winn, Alice A

    2012-10-01

    • In small isolated populations, genetic drift is expected to increase chance fixation of partly recessive, mildly deleterious mutations, reducing mean fitness and inbreeding depression within populations and increasing heterosis in outcrosses between populations. • We estimated relative effective sizes and migration among populations and compared mean fitness, heterosis, and inbreeding depression for eight large and eight small populations of a perennial plant on the basis of fitness of progeny produced by hand pollinations within and between populations. • Migration was limited, and, consistent with expectations for drift, mean fitness was 68% lower in small populations; heterosis was significantly greater for small (mean = 70%, SE = 14) than for large populations (mean = 7%, SE = 27); and inbreeding depression was lower, although not significantly so, in small (mean = -0.29%, SE = 28) than in large (mean = 0.28%, SE = 23) populations. • Genetic drift promotes fixation of deleterious mutations in small populations, which could threaten their persistence. Limited migration will exacerbate drift, but data on migration and effective population sizes in natural populations are scarce. Theory incorporating realistic variation in population size and patterns of migration could better predict genetic threats to small population persistence.

  3. Recognizing the prevalence of changing adult foot size: an opportunity to prevent diabetic foot ulcers?

    PubMed

    Connolly, John E; Wrobel, James S

    2014-01-01

    Ill-fitting shoes may precipitate up to half of all diabetes-related amputations and are often cited as a leading cause of diabetic foot ulcers (DFU), with those patients being 5 to 10 times more likely to present wearing improperly fitting shoes. Among patients with prior DFU, those who self-select their shoe wear are at a three-fold risk for reulceration at 3 years versus those patients wearing prescribed shoes. Properly designed and fitted shoes should then address much of this problem, but evidence supporting the benefit of therapeutic shoe programs is inconclusive. The current study, performed in a male veteran population, is the first such effort to examine the prevalence and extent of change in foot length affecting individuals following skeletal maturity. Nearly half of all participants in our study experienced a ≥1 shoe size change in foot length during adulthood. We suggest that these often unrecognized changes may explain the broad use of improperly sized shoe wear, and its associated sequelae such as DFU and amputation. Regular clinical assessment of shoe fit in at-risk populations is therefore also strongly recommended as part of a comprehensive amputation prevention program.

  4. Factors Affecting Tooth Retention among Adult Population of Dharwad District, India

    PubMed Central

    Inamdar, Nurul Ameen; Prasad, K V V

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Oral health in relation to general health is influen-ced by the retention of teeth. Understanding factors affecting tooth retention will help health and social policy-makers to translate the knowledge on tooth retention into action programs for improving oral health of the people and hence enhance tooth retention. Aim The aim of the present study was to determine the factors affecting tooth retention among adult population of Dharwad district, India. Materials and Methods A cross-sectional survey of 1100 subjects (616 urban and 484 rural) residing in Dharwad district, Karnataka, India, was conducted. Self-designed questionnaire was prepared and data were collected on socio-demographic factors, oral hygiene practices, diet practices, adverse oral habits and frequency of dental visits by the interview method and clinical examination. Statistical analysis was carried out by applying one way analysis of variance (ANOVA), unpaired t-test and backward stepwise multiple regression. Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to test the correlation between the two quantitative variables. Results A total of 66.72% subjects retained all 28 teeth and mean number of teeth retained by the study subjects were 25.33 (90.46%). There was gradual reduction in tooth retention with increase in age. Males (95.8%) compared to females (94.07%), unmarried (98.8%) than married subjects (93.3%) and subjects with intermediate or post high school diploma (97.5%) than those who were illiterate (89.5%) and other low educational level study subjects retained more teeth. Further mean values of tooth retention for other socio demographic factors i.e., occupation, income and family size were not statistically significant (p≤0.05). In addition, subjects using tooth brush (96.6%) and tooth paste (96.6%) for cleaning the teeth, subjects practicing mixed diet (96.6%) and subjects who never visited the dentist (96.5%) in their lifetime showed statistically significant greater tooth

  5. Effect of population size on the estimation of QTL: a test using resistance to barley stripe rust.

    PubMed

    Vales, M I; Schön, C C; Capettini, F; Chen, X M; Corey, A E; Mather, D E; Mundt, C C; Richardson, K L; Sandoval-Islas, J S; Utz, H F; Hayes, P M

    2005-11-01

    The limited population sizes used in many quantitative trait locus (QTL) detection experiments can lead to underestimation of QTL number, overestimation of QTL effects, and failure to quantify QTL interactions. We used the barley/barley stripe rust pathosystem to evaluate the effect of population size on the estimation of QTL parameters. We generated a large (n = 409) population of doubled haploid lines derived from the cross of two inbred lines, BCD47 and Baronesse. This population was evaluated for barley stripe rust severity in the Toluca Valley, Mexico, and in Washington State, USA, under field conditions. BCD47 was the principal donor of resistance QTL alleles, but the susceptible parent also contributed some resistance alleles. The major QTL, located on the long arm of chromosome 4H, close to the Mlo gene, accounted for up to 34% of the phenotypic variance. Subpopulations of different sizes were generated using three methods-resampling, selective genotyping, and selective phenotyping-to evaluate the effect of population size on the estimation of QTL parameters. In all cases, the number of QTL detected increased with population size. QTL with large effects were detected even in small populations, but QTL with small effects were detected only by increasing population size. Selective genotyping and/or selective phenotyping approaches could be effective strategies for reducing the costs associated with conducting QTL analysis in large populations. The method of choice will depend on the relative costs of genotyping versus phenotyping.

  6. Effective Population Size, Extended Linkage Disequilibrium and Signatures of Selection in the Rare Dog Breed Lundehund

    PubMed Central

    Pfahler, Sophia; Distl, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    The Lundehund is an old dog breed with remarkable anatomical features including polydactyly in all four limbs and extraordinary flexibility of the spine. We genotyped 28 Lundehund using the canine Illumina high density beadchip to estimate the effective population size (Ne) and inbreeding coefficients as well as to identify potential regions of positive selection. The decay of linkage disequilibrium was slow with r2 = 0.95 in 50 kb distance. The last 7-200 generations ago, Ne was at 10-13. An increase of Ne was noted in the very recent generations with a peak value of 19 for Ne at generation 4. The FROH estimated for 50-, 65- and 358-SNP windows were 0.87, 087 and 0.81, respectively. The most likely estimates for FROH after removing identical-by-state segments due to linkage disequilibria were at 0.80-0.81. The extreme loss of heterozygosity has been accumulated through continued inbreeding over 200 generations within a probably closed population with a small effective population size. The mean inbreeding coefficient based on pedigree data for the last 11 generations (FPed = 0.10) was strongly biased downwards due to the unknown coancestry of the founders in this pedigree data. The long-range haplotype test identified regions with genes involved in processes of immunity, olfaction, woundhealing and neuronal development as potential targets of selection. The genes QSOX2, BMPR1B and PRRX2 as well as MYOM1 are candidates for selection on the Lundehund characteristics small body size, increased number of digits per paw and extraordinary mobility, respectively. PMID:25860808

  7. The relationship between settlement population size and sustainable development measured by two sustainability metrics

    SciTech Connect

    O'Regan, Bernadette Morrissey, John; Foley, Walter; Moles, Richard

    2009-04-15

    This paper reports on a study of the relative sustainability of 79 Irish villages, towns and a small city (collectively called 'settlements') classified by population size. Quantitative data on more than 300 economic, social and environmental attributes of each settlement were assembled into a database. Two aggregated metrics were selected to model the relative sustainability of settlements: Ecological Footprint (EF) and Sustainable Development Index (SDI). Subsequently these were aggregated to create a single Combined Sustainable Development Index. Creation of this database meant that metric calculations did not rely on prox