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Sample records for adult survival probability

  1. Estimates of annual survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, C.A.; O'Shea, T.J.; Pradel, R.; Beck, C.A.

    1998-01-01

    The population dynamics of large, long-lived mammals are particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Understanding factors affecting survival patterns is therefore critical for developing and testing theories of population dynamics and for developing management strategies aimed at preventing declines or extinction in such taxa. Few studies have used modern analytical approaches for analyzing variation and testing hypotheses about survival probabilities in large mammals. This paper reports a detailed analysis of annual adult survival in the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), an endangered marine mammal, based on a mark-recapture approach. Natural and boat-inflicted scars distinctively 'marked' individual manatees that were cataloged in a computer-based photographic system. Photo-documented resightings provided 'recaptures.' Using open population models, annual adult-survival probabilities were estimated for manatees observed in winter in three areas of Florida: Blue Spring, Crystal River, and the Atlantic coast. After using goodness-of-fit tests in Program RELEASE to search for violations of the assumptions of mark-recapture analysis, survival and sighting probabilities were modeled under several different biological hypotheses with Program SURGE. Estimates of mean annual probability of sighting varied from 0.948 for Blue Spring to 0.737 for Crystal River and 0.507 for the Atlantic coast. At Crystal River and Blue Spring, annual survival probabilities were best estimated as constant over the study period at 0.96 (95% CI = 0.951-0.975 and 0.900-0.985, respectively). On the Atlantic coast, where manatees are impacted more by human activities, annual survival probabilities had a significantly lower mean estimate of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.887-0.926) and varied unpredictably over the study period. For each study area, survival did not differ between sexes and was independent of relative adult age. The high constant adult-survival probabilities estimated

  2. Lower survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees in years with intense coastal storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.

    2003-01-01

    The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) inhabits the subtropical waters of the southeastern United States, where hurricanes are a regular occurrence. Using mark-resighting statistical models, we analyzed 19 years of photo-identification data and detected significant annual variation in adult survival for a subpopulation in northwest Florida where human impact is low. That variation coincided with years when intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and a major winter storm occurred in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean survival probability during years with no or low intensity storms was 0.972 (approximate 95% confidence interval = 0.961-0.980) but dropped to 0.936 (0.864-0.971) in 1985 with Hurricanes Elena, Kate, and Juan; to 0.909 (0.837-0.951) in 1993 with the March "Storm of the Century"; and to 0.817 (0.735-0.878) in 1995 with Hurricanes Opal, Erin, and Allison. These drops in survival probability were not catastrophic in magnitude and were detected because of the use of state-of-the-art statistical techniques and the quality of the data. Because individuals of this small population range extensively along the north Gulf coast of Florida, it was possible to resolve storm effects on a regional scale rather than the site-specific local scale common to studies of more sedentary species. This is the first empirical evidence in support of storm effects on manatee survival and suggests a cause-effect relationship. The decreases in survival could be due to direct mortality, indirect mortality, and/or emigration from the region as a consequence of storms. Future impacts to the population by a single catastrophic hurricane, or series of smaller hurricanes, could increase the probability of extinction. With the advent in 1995 of a new 25- to 50-yr cycle of greater hurricane activity, and longer term change possible with global climate change, it becomes all the more important to reduce mortality and injury

  3. Retrieve Tether Survival Probability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    cuts of the tether by meteorites and orbital debris , is calculated to be 99.934% for the planned experiment duration of six months or less. This is...due to the unlikely event of a strike by a large piece of orbital debris greater than 1 meter in size cutting all the lines of the tether at once. The...probability of the tether surviving multiple cuts by meteoroid and orbital debris impactors smaller than 5 cm in diameter is 99.9993% at six months

  4. Robust satisficing and the probability of survival

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2014-01-01

    Concepts of robustness are sometimes employed when decisions under uncertainty are made without probabilistic information. We present a theorem that establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for non-probabilistic robustness to be equivalent to the probability of satisfying the specified outcome requirements. When this holds, probability is enhanced (or maximised) by enhancing (or maximising) robustness. Two further theorems establish important special cases. These theorems have implications for success or survival under uncertainty. Applications to foraging and finance are discussed.

  5. Bacteria survival probability in bactericidal filter paper.

    PubMed

    Mansur-Azzam, Nura; Hosseinidoust, Zeinab; Woo, Su Gyeong; Vyhnalkova, Renata; Eisenberg, Adi; van de Ven, Theo G M

    2014-05-01

    Bactericidal filter papers offer the simplicity of gravity filtration to simultaneously eradicate microbial contaminants and particulates. We previously detailed the development of biocidal block copolymer micelles that could be immobilized on a filter paper to actively eradicate bacteria. Despite the many advantages offered by this system, its widespread use is hindered by its unknown mechanism of action which can result in non-reproducible outcomes. In this work, we sought to investigate the mechanism by which a certain percentage of Escherichia coli cells survived when passing through the bactericidal filter paper. Through the process of elimination, the possibility that the bacterial survival probability was controlled by the initial bacterial load or the existence of resistant sub-populations of E. coli was dismissed. It was observed that increasing the thickness or the number of layers of the filter significantly decreased bacterial survival probability for the biocidal filter paper but did not affect the efficiency of the blank filter paper (no biocide). The survival probability of bacteria passing through the antibacterial filter paper appeared to depend strongly on the number of collision between each bacterium and the biocide-loaded micelles. It was thus hypothesized that during each collision a certain number of biocide molecules were directly transferred from the hydrophobic core of the micelle to the bacterial lipid bilayer membrane. Therefore, each bacterium must encounter a certain number of collisions to take up enough biocide to kill the cell and cells that do not undergo the threshold number of collisions are expected to survive.

  6. Adult Survival Skills Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walsko, Gregory M.

    The purpose of this instrument is to supplement data from the Adult Basic Learning Examination in assessing the functional level of adults in daily situations. It may also be used as a teaching tool for adults requesting tutoring in specific concepts and skills presented in the instrument. This instrument is an informal assessment instrument and…

  7. COUNTRY-LEVEL SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS ASSOCIATED WITH SURVIVAL PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A CENTENARIAN AMONG OLDER EUROPEAN ADULTS: GENDER INEQUALITY, MALE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND PROPORTIONS OF WOMEN IN PARLIAMENTS.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jong In; Kim, Gukbin

    2017-03-01

    This study confirms an association between survival probability of becoming a centenarian (SPBC) for those aged 65 to 69 and country-level socioeconomic indicators in Europe: the gender inequality index (GII), male labour force participation (MLP) rates and proportions of seats held by women in national parliaments (PWP). The analysis was based on SPBC data from 34 countries obtained from the United Nations (UN). Country-level socioeconomic indicator data were obtained from the UN and World Bank databases. The associations between socioeconomic indicators and SPBC were assessed using correlation coefficients and multivariate regression models. The findings show significant correlations between the SPBC for women and men aged 65 to 69 and country-level socioeconomic indicators: GII (r=-0.674, p=0.001), MLP (r=0.514, p=0.002) and PWP (r=0.498, p=0.003). The SPBC predictors for women and men were lower GIIs and higher MLP and PWP (R 2=0.508, p=0.001). Country-level socioeconomic indicators appear to have an important effect on the probability of becoming a centenarian in European adults aged 65 to 69. Country-level gender equality policies in European counties may decrease the risk of unhealthy old age and increase longevity in elders through greater national gender equality; disparities in GII and other country-level socioeconomic indicators impact longevity probability. National longevity strategies should target country-level gender inequality.

  8. Differential Survival in Europe and the United States: Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival

    PubMed Central

    Delavande, Adeline; Rohwedder, Susann

    2013-01-01

    Cross-country comparisons of differential survival by socioeconomic status (SES) are useful in many domains. Yet, to date, such studies have been rare. Reliably estimating differential survival in a single country has been challenging because it requires rich panel data with a large sample size. Cross-country estimates have proven even more difficult because the measures of SES need to be comparable internationally. We present an alternative method for acquiring information on differential survival by SES. Rather than using observations of actual survival, we relate individuals’ subjective probabilities of survival to SES variables in cross section. To show that subjective survival probabilities are informative proxies for actual survival when estimating differential survival, we compare estimates of differential survival based on actual survival with estimates based on subjective probabilities of survival for the same sample. The results are remarkably similar. We then use this approach to compare differential survival by SES for 10 European countries and the United States. Wealthier people have higher survival probabilities than those who are less wealthy, but the strength of the association differs across countries. Nations with a smaller gradient appear to be Belgium, France, and Italy, while the United States, England, and Sweden appear to have a larger gradient. PMID:22042664

  9. Survival Probability of Beneficial Mutations in Bacterial Batch Culture

    PubMed Central

    Wahl, Lindi M.; Zhu, Anna Dai

    2015-01-01

    The survival of rare beneficial mutations can be extremely sensitive to the organism’s life history and the trait affected by the mutation. Given the tremendous impact of bacteria in batch culture as a model system for the study of adaptation, it is important to understand the survival probability of beneficial mutations in these populations. Here we develop a life-history model for bacterial populations in batch culture and predict the survival of mutations that increase fitness through their effects on specific traits: lag time, fission time, viability, and the timing of stationary phase. We find that if beneficial mutations are present in the founding population at the beginning of culture growth, mutations that reduce the mortality of daughter cells are the most likely to survive drift. In contrast, of mutations that occur de novo during growth, those that delay the onset of stationary phase are the most likely to survive. Our model predicts that approximately fivefold population growth between bottlenecks will optimize the occurrence and survival of beneficial mutations of all four types. This prediction is relatively insensitive to other model parameters, such as the lag time, fission time, or mortality rate of the population. We further estimate that bottlenecks that are more severe than this optimal prediction substantially reduce the occurrence and survival of adaptive mutations. PMID:25758382

  10. Survival probability of beneficial mutations in bacterial batch culture.

    PubMed

    Wahl, Lindi M; Zhu, Anna Dai

    2015-05-01

    The survival of rare beneficial mutations can be extremely sensitive to the organism's life history and the trait affected by the mutation. Given the tremendous impact of bacteria in batch culture as a model system for the study of adaptation, it is important to understand the survival probability of beneficial mutations in these populations. Here we develop a life-history model for bacterial populations in batch culture and predict the survival of mutations that increase fitness through their effects on specific traits: lag time, fission time, viability, and the timing of stationary phase. We find that if beneficial mutations are present in the founding population at the beginning of culture growth, mutations that reduce the mortality of daughter cells are the most likely to survive drift. In contrast, of mutations that occur de novo during growth, those that delay the onset of stationary phase are the most likely to survive. Our model predicts that approximately fivefold population growth between bottlenecks will optimize the occurrence and survival of beneficial mutations of all four types. This prediction is relatively insensitive to other model parameters, such as the lag time, fission time, or mortality rate of the population. We further estimate that bottlenecks that are more severe than this optimal prediction substantially reduce the occurrence and survival of adaptive mutations.

  11. Finite-size scaling of survival probability in branching processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia-Millan, Rosalba; Font-Clos, Francesc; Corral, Álvaro

    2015-04-01

    Branching processes pervade many models in statistical physics. We investigate the survival probability of a Galton-Watson branching process after a finite number of generations. We derive analytically the existence of finite-size scaling for the survival probability as a function of the control parameter and the maximum number of generations, obtaining the critical exponents as well as the exact scaling function, which is G (y ) =2 y ey /(ey-1 ) , with y the rescaled distance to the critical point. Our findings are valid for any branching process of the Galton-Watson type, independently of the distribution of the number of offspring, provided its variance is finite. This proves the universal behavior of the finite-size effects in branching processes, including the universality of the metric factors. The direct relation to mean-field percolation is also discussed.

  12. Probability of moraine survival in a succession of glacial advances.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gibbons, A.B.; Megeath, J.D.; Pierce, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    Emplacement of glacial moraines normally results in obliteration of older moraines deposited by less extensive glacial advances, a process we call 'obliterative overlap'. Assuming randomness and obliterative overlap, after 10 glacial episodes the most likely number of surviving moraines is only three. The record of the Pleistocene is in agreement with the probability analysis: the 10 glaciations during the past 0.9 Myr inferred from the deep-sea record resulted in moraine sequences in which only two or three different-aged moraine belts can generally be distinguished. -from Authors

  13. Reproductive ecology of Emperor Geese: Survival of adult females

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Petersen, Margaret R.

    1992-01-01

    Life history theory predicts a decrease in survival with increased reproductive effort of individuals. This relationship, however, is highly variable among and within species. I studied the nesting success and survival of adult female Emperor Geese during 1982-1986 and found no direct evidence that differential reproductive effort as measured by the number of eggs laid or hatching success had a significant negative effect on survival to the next breeding season. Incubated clutch size, hatched clutch size, number of parasitic eggs, nest initiation date, hatch date, and mass at hatch were not related to subsequent survival. Of the factors I examined, only an attempt to nest the previous season was related to survival of a female. I suggest that the higher probability of survival among non-nesting adult female Emperor Geese was primarily related to hunting pressure on the nesting area between spring and fall migration. The probability of survival was increased for females with larger clutches, suggesting a positive relationship between brood size and survival.

  14. Do Chinese Adult Immigrants Need Survival English?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Shelley Diane

    A survey of 211 adult Chinese immigrants in a community school in Los Angeles, California reports on the adults' need and desire for survival English instruction. The study investigated: the situations and contexts for which English instruction was needed; individuals' desire to increase the range of transactions in which they can function in…

  15. Survival probability of diffusion with trapping in cellular neurobiology.

    PubMed

    Holcman, David; Marchewka, Avi; Schuss, Zeev

    2005-09-01

    The problem of diffusion with absorption and trapping sites arises in the theory of molecular signaling inside and on the membranes of biological cells. In particular, this problem arises in the case of spine-dendrite communication, where the number of calcium ions, modeled as random particles, is regulated across the spine microstructure by pumps, which play the role of killing sites, while the end of the dendritic shaft is an absorbing boundary. We develop a general mathematical framework for diffusion in the presence of absorption and killing sites and apply it to the computation of the time-dependent survival probability of ions. We also compute the ratio of the number of absorbed particles at a specific location to the number of killed particles. We show that the ratio depends on the distribution of killing sites. The biological consequence is that the position of the pumps regulates the fraction of calcium ions that reach the dendrite.

  16. Survival probability of diffusion with trapping in cellular neurobiology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holcman, David; Marchewka, Avi; Schuss, Zeev

    2005-09-01

    The problem of diffusion with absorption and trapping sites arises in the theory of molecular signaling inside and on the membranes of biological cells. In particular, this problem arises in the case of spine-dendrite communication, where the number of calcium ions, modeled as random particles, is regulated across the spine microstructure by pumps, which play the role of killing sites, while the end of the dendritic shaft is an absorbing boundary. We develop a general mathematical framework for diffusion in the presence of absorption and killing sites and apply it to the computation of the time-dependent survival probability of ions. We also compute the ratio of the number of absorbed particles at a specific location to the number of killed particles. We show that the ratio depends on the distribution of killing sites. The biological consequence is that the position of the pumps regulates the fraction of calcium ions that reach the dendrite.

  17. Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Saracco, James F.; Royle, J. Andrew; DeSante, David F.; Gardner, Beth

    2010-01-01

    The importance of understanding spatial variation in processes driving animal population dynamics is widely recognized. Yet little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of vital rates. Here we describe a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to provide spatially explicit year-specific estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities from capture-recapture data. We apply the model to data collected on a declining bird species, Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), as part of a broad-scale bird-banding network, the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. The Wood Thrush analysis showed variability in both phi and pi among years and across space. Spatial heterogeneity in residency probability was particularly striking, suggesting the importance of understanding the role of transients in local populations. We found broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi that lend insight into population trends and can direct conservation and research. The spatial model developed here represents a significant advance over approaches to investigating spatial pattern in vital rates that aggregate data at coarse spatial scales and do not explicitly incorporate spatial information in the model. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models offers the opportunity to more fully investigate spatiotemporal variation in the processes that drive population changes.

  18. Survival probability and order statistics of diffusion on disordered media.

    PubMed

    Acedo, L; Yuste, S B

    2002-07-01

    We investigate the first passage time t(j,N) to a given chemical or Euclidean distance of the first j of a set of N>1 independent random walkers all initially placed on a site of a disordered medium. To solve this order-statistics problem we assume that, for short times, the survival probability (the probability that a single random walker is not absorbed by a hyperspherical surface during some time interval) decays for disordered media in the same way as for Euclidean and some class of deterministic fractal lattices. This conjecture is checked by simulation on the incipient percolation aggregate embedded in two dimensions. Arbitrary moments of t(j,N) are expressed in terms of an asymptotic series in powers of 1/ln N, which is formally identical to those found for Euclidean and (some class of) deterministic fractal lattices. The agreement of the asymptotic expressions with simulation results for the two-dimensional percolation aggregate is good when the boundary is defined in terms of the chemical distance. The agreement worsens slightly when the Euclidean distance is used.

  19. Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

    2010-01-01

    Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

  20. Estimating survival and breeding probability for pond-breeding amphibians: a modified robust design

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, L.L.; Kendall, W.L.; Church, D.R.; Wilbur, H.M.

    2004-01-01

    Many studies of pond-breeding amphibians involve sampling individuals during migration to and from breeding habitats. Interpreting population processes and dynamics from these studies is difficult because (1) only a proportion of the population is observable each season, while an unknown proportion remains unobservable (e.g., non-breeding adults) and (2) not all observable animals are captured. Imperfect capture probability can be easily accommodated in capture?recapture models, but temporary transitions between observable and unobservable states, often referred to as temporary emigration, is known to cause problems in both open- and closed-population models. We develop a multistate mark?recapture (MSMR) model, using an open-robust design that permits one entry and one exit from the study area per season. Our method extends previous temporary emigration models (MSMR with an unobservable state) in two ways. First, we relax the assumption of demographic closure (no mortality) between consecutive (secondary) samples, allowing estimation of within-pond survival. Also, we add the flexibility to express survival probability of unobservable individuals (e.g., ?non-breeders?) as a function of the survival probability of observable animals while in the same, terrestrial habitat. This allows for potentially different annual survival probabilities for observable and unobservable animals. We apply our model to a relictual population of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum). Despite small sample sizes, demographic parameters were estimated with reasonable precision. We tested several a priori biological hypotheses and found evidence for seasonal differences in pond survival. Our methods could be applied to a variety of pond-breeding species and other taxa where individuals are captured entering or exiting a common area (e.g., spawning or roosting area, hibernacula).

  1. Basic & Survival Consumer Economics for Adult Refugees.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carlston, Peter G.

    Prepared to help teachers address the basic and survival level consumer needs of adult Vietnamese and Laotian refugees, this instructional guide consists of five units of instructional materials. Topics of the individual units are (1) how the monetary system works (cash, checks, postal money orders, banking); (2) the family consumer (personal and…

  2. Mean exit time and survival probability within the CTRW formalism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montero, M.; Masoliver, J.

    2007-05-01

    An intense research on financial market microstructure is presently in progress. Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are general models capable to capture the small-scale properties that high frequency data series show. The use of CTRW models in the analysis of financial problems is quite recent and their potentials have not been fully developed. Here we present two (closely related) applications of great interest in risk control. In the first place, we will review the problem of modelling the behaviour of the mean exit time (MET) of a process out of a given region of fixed size. The surveyed stochastic processes are the cumulative returns of asset prices. The link between the value of the MET and the timescale of the market fluctuations of a certain degree is crystal clear. In this sense, MET value may help, for instance, in deciding the optimal time horizon for the investment. The MET is, however, one among the statistics of a distribution of bigger interest: the survival probability (SP), the likelihood that after some lapse of time a process remains inside the given region without having crossed its boundaries. The final part of the manuscript is devoted to the study of this quantity. Note that the use of SPs may outperform the standard “Value at Risk" (VaR) method for two reasons: we can consider other market dynamics than the limited Wiener process and, even in this case, a risk level derived from the SP will ensure (within the desired quintile) that the quoted value of the portfolio will not leave the safety zone. We present some preliminary theoretical and applied results concerning this topic.

  3. Refinement of Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-03-01

    Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PSDA predicts the impact of hypothermia and dehydration on survival time during exposure for a wide...thus will have a minimal impact on the heat loss from the body to the environment. survival, model, hypothermia , dehydration, immersion...Decision Aid (PSDA v1.0). PSDA predicts the impact of hypothermia and dehydration on survival time during exposure for a wide range of conditions in

  4. A K-nearest neighbors survival probability prediction method.

    PubMed

    Lowsky, D J; Ding, Y; Lee, D K K; McCulloch, C E; Ross, L F; Thistlethwaite, J R; Zenios, S A

    2013-05-30

    We introduce a nonparametric survival prediction method for right-censored data. The method generates a survival curve prediction by constructing a (weighted) Kaplan-Meier estimator using the outcomes of the K most similar training observations. Each observation has an associated set of covariates, and a metric on the covariate space is used to measure similarity between observations. We apply our method to a kidney transplantation data set to generate patient-specific distributions of graft survival and to a simulated data set in which the proportional hazards assumption is explicitly violated. We compare the performance of our method with the standard Cox model and the random survival forests method.

  5. Model and test in a fungus of the probability that beneficial mutations survive drift.

    PubMed

    Gifford, Danna R; de Visser, J Arjan G M; Wahl, Lindi M

    2013-02-23

    Determining the probability of fixation of beneficial mutations is critically important for building predictive models of adaptive evolution. Despite considerable theoretical work, models of fixation probability have stood untested for nearly a century. However, recent advances in experimental and theoretical techniques permit the development of models with testable predictions. We developed a new model for the probability of surviving genetic drift, a major component of fixation probability, for novel beneficial mutations in the fungus Aspergillus nidulans, based on the life-history characteristics of its colony growth on a solid surface. We tested the model by measuring the probability of surviving drift in 11 adapted strains introduced into wild-type populations of different densities. We found that the probability of surviving drift increased with mutant invasion fitness, and decreased with wild-type density, as expected. The model accurately predicted the survival probability for the majority of mutants, yielding one of the first direct tests of the extinction probability of beneficial mutations.

  6. Survival Prognosis in Very Old Adults

    PubMed Central

    Thinggaard, Mikael; McGue, Matt; Jeune, Bernard; Osler, Merete; Vaupel, James W.; Christensen, Kaare

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To determine whether simple functional indicators are predictors of survival prognosis in very old adults. DESIGN In-person survey conducted over a 3-month period in 1998; assessment of survival over a 15-year follow-up period. SETTING Denmark. PARTICIPANTS All 3,600 Danes born in 1905 and living in Denmark in 1998, were invited to participate regardless of residence and health; 2,262 (63%) participated in the survey: 1,814 (80.2%) in person and 448 (19.8%) through a proxy. MEASUREMENTS Socioeconomic factors, medications and diseases, activities of daily living, physical performance, cognition, depression symptomatology, self-rated health, and all-cause mortality, evaluated as average remaining lifespan and chance of surviving to 100 years. RESULTS Men aged 92 to 93 had an overall 6.0% chance of surviving to 100 years, whereas the chance for women was 11.4%. Being able to rise without use of hands increased the chance for men to 11.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 7.7–14.7) and for women to 22.0% (95% CI = 18.9–25.1). When combining this with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from 28 to 30, the chances were 21.7% (95% CI = 11.5–31.9) for men and 34.2% (95% CI = 24.8–43.5) for women. CONCLUSION Chair stand score combined with MMSE score is a quick and easy way to estimate overall chance of survival in very old adults, which is particularly relevant when treatment with potential side effects for nonacute diseases is considered. J Am Geriatr Soc 64:81–88, 2016. PMID:26782855

  7. Differentiating Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density in Adult Word Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Storkel, Holly L.; Armbruster, Jonna; Hogan, Tiffany P.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to differentiate effects of phonotactic probability, the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence, and neighborhood density, the number of words that sound similar to a given word, on adult word learning. A second purpose was to determine what aspect of word learning (viz., triggering learning, formation…

  8. Recruitment in a Colorado population of big brown bats: Breeding probabilities, litter size, and first-year survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Reynolds, C.A.; Bowen, R.A.

    2010-01-01

    We used markrecapture estimation techniques and radiography to test hypotheses about 3 important aspects of recruitment in big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado: adult breeding probabilities, litter size, and 1st-year survival of young. We marked 2,968 females with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags at multiple sites during 2001-2005 and based our assessments on direct recaptures (breeding probabilities) and passive detection with automated PIT tag readers (1st-year survival). We interpreted our data in relation to hypotheses regarding demographic influences of bat age, roost, and effects of years with unusual environmental conditions: extreme drought (2002) and arrival of a West Nile virus epizootic (2003). Conditional breeding probabilities at 6 roosts sampled in 2002-2005 were estimated as 0.64 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.530.73) in 1-year-old females, but were consistently high (95% CI = 0.940.96) and did not vary by roost, year, or prior year breeding status in older adults. Mean litter size was 1.11 (95% CI = 1.051.17), based on examination of 112 pregnant females by radiography. Litter size was not higher in older or larger females and was similar to results of other studies in western North America despite wide variation in latitude. First-year survival was estimated as 0.67 (95% CI = 0.610.73) for weaned females at 5 maternity roosts over 5 consecutive years, was lower than adult survival (0.79; 95% CI = 0.770.81), and varied by roost. Based on model selection criteria, strong evidence exists for complex roost and year effects on 1st-year survival. First-year survival was lowest in bats born during the drought year. Juvenile females that did not return to roosts as 1-year-olds had lower body condition indices in late summer of their natal year than those known to survive. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

  9. Survival of spectacled eider adult females and ducklings during brood rearing

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.

    1997-01-01

    We studied survival of adult female and duckling spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri) during brood rearing on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska from 1993 to 1995. Duckling survival to 30 days of age averaged 34% with a 95% confidence interval from 25 to 47%. Half (49%) of radiomarked adult females had lost all their ducklings by 30 days after hatch. Most (74%) duckling mortality occurred in the first 10 days. Adult female survival during the first 30 days of brood rearing was 93 ± 3% (SE). Females died from lead poisoning, as a result of ingesting lead shot, and predation. Mortality of adult females during brood rearing is probably higher than during other times of the year. Low adult female survival during the breeding season may be contributing to the overall population decline of spectacled eiders.

  10. Age-specific survival and reproductive probabilities: evidence for senescence in male fallow deer (Dama dama).

    PubMed Central

    McElligott, Alan G; Altwegg, Res; Hayden, Thomas J

    2002-01-01

    Survival and reproduction are key features in the evolution of life-history strategies. In this study, we use capture-mark-resighting and multi-state models to examine survival senescence and reproductive senescence in six successive cohorts of fallow bucks that were studied for 16 years. We found that the overall age-specific survival probabilities of males were highly variable and the best-fitting model revealed that fallow bucks have four life-history stages: yearling, pre-reproductive, prime-age and senescent. Pre-reproductive males (2 and 3 years old) had the highest survival. Survival declined sharply after the age of 9 years, indicating that senescence had begun. When we considered reproducing and non-reproducing males separately, there was no evidence of senescence in the former, and steadily decreasing survival after the onset of social maturity in the latter. Reproduction probability also declined in older males, and thus we provide very strong evidence of senescence. Reproducers had a greater chance of reproducing again in the following year than non-reproducers. Furthermore, there were differences in the survival probabilities, with reproducers consistently surviving better than non-reproducers. In our study population, reproducers allocate more to the effort to reproduce than non-reproducers. Therefore our results indicate the generally higher phenotypic quality of reproducing males. These results, along with earlier studies on the same population, could indicate positive relationships between fitness correlates. PMID:12061956

  11. 30-Day Survival Probabilities as a Quality Indicator for Norwegian Hospitals: Data Management and Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hassani, Sahar; Lindman, Anja Schou; Kristoffersen, Doris Tove; Tomic, Oliver; Helgeland, Jon

    2015-01-01

    Background The Norwegian Knowledge Centre for the Health Services (NOKC) reports 30-day survival as a quality indicator for Norwegian hospitals. The indicators have been published annually since 2011 on the website of the Norwegian Directorate of Health (www.helsenorge.no), as part of the Norwegian Quality Indicator System authorized by the Ministry of Health. Openness regarding calculation of quality indicators is important, as it provides the opportunity to critically review and discuss the method. The purpose of this article is to describe the data collection, data pre-processing, and data analyses, as carried out by NOKC, for the calculation of 30-day risk-adjusted survival probability as a quality indicator. Methods and Findings Three diagnosis-specific 30-day survival indicators (first time acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke and hip fracture) are estimated based on all-cause deaths, occurring in-hospital or out-of-hospital, within 30 days counting from the first day of hospitalization. Furthermore, a hospital-wide (i.e. overall) 30-day survival indicator is calculated. Patient administrative data from all Norwegian hospitals and information from the Norwegian Population Register are retrieved annually, and linked to datasets for previous years. The outcome (alive/death within 30 days) is attributed to every hospital by the fraction of time spent in each hospital. A logistic regression followed by a hierarchical Bayesian analysis is used for the estimation of risk-adjusted survival probabilities. A multiple testing procedure with a false discovery rate of 5% is used to identify hospitals, hospital trusts and regional health authorities with significantly higher/lower survival than the reference. In addition, estimated risk-adjusted survival probabilities are published per hospital, hospital trust and regional health authority. The variation in risk-adjusted survival probabilities across hospitals for AMI shows a decreasing trend over time: estimated

  12. Effects of amphibian chytrid fungus on individual survival probability in wild boreal toads.

    PubMed

    Pilliod, David S; Muths, Erin; Scherer, Rick D; Bartelt, Paul E; Corn, Paul Stephen; Hossack, Blake R; Lambert, Brad A; McCaffery, Rebecca; Gaughan, Christopher

    2010-10-01

    Chytridiomycosis is linked to the worldwide decline of amphibians, yet little is known about the demographic effects of the disease. We collected capture-recapture data on three populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas [Bufo = Anaxyrus]) in the Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.). Two of the populations were infected with chytridiomycosis and one was not. We examined the effect of the presence of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]; the agent of chytridiomycosis) on survival probability and population growth rate. Toads that were infected with Bd had lower average annual survival probability than uninfected individuals at sites where Bd was detected, which suggests chytridiomycosis may reduce survival by 31-42% in wild boreal toads. Toads that were negative for Bd at infected sites had survival probabilities comparable to toads at the uninfected site. Evidence that environmental covariates (particularly cold temperatures during the breeding season) influenced toad survival was weak. The number of individuals in diseased populations declined by 5-7%/year over the 6 years of the study, whereas the uninfected population had comparatively stable population growth. Our data suggest that the presence of Bd in these toad populations is not causing rapid population declines. Rather, chytridiomycosis appears to be functioning as a low-level, chronic disease whereby some infected individuals survive but the overall population effects are still negative. Our results show that some amphibian populations may be coexisting with Bd and highlight the importance of quantitative assessments of survival in diseased animal populations.

  13. A Model-Free Machine Learning Method for Risk Classification and Survival Probability Prediction.

    PubMed

    Geng, Yuan; Lu, Wenbin; Zhang, Hao Helen

    2014-01-01

    Risk classification and survival probability prediction are two major goals in survival data analysis since they play an important role in patients' risk stratification, long-term diagnosis, and treatment selection. In this article, we propose a new model-free machine learning framework for risk classification and survival probability prediction based on weighted support vector machines. The new procedure does not require any specific parametric or semiparametric model assumption on data, and is therefore capable of capturing nonlinear covariate effects. We use numerous simulation examples to demonstrate finite sample performance of the proposed method under various settings. Applications to a glioma tumor data and a breast cancer gene expression survival data are shown to illustrate the new methodology in real data analysis.

  14. Parent–offspring resemblance in colony-specific adult survival of cliff swallows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, Charles R.; Roche, Erin A.; Brown, Mary Bomberger

    2015-01-01

    Survival is a key component of fitness. Species that occupy discrete breeding colonies with different characteristics are often exposed to varying costs and benefits associated with group size or environmental conditions, and survival is an integrative net measure of these effects. We investigated the extent to which survival probability of adult (≥1-year old) cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) occupying different colonies resembled that of their parental cohort and thus whether the natal colony had long-term effects on individuals. Individuals were cross-fostered between colonies soon after hatching and their presence as breeders monitored at colonies in the western Nebraska study area for the subsequent decade. Colony-specific adult survival probabilities of offspring born and reared in the same colony, and those cross-fostered away from their natal colony soon after birth, were positively and significantly related to subsequent adult survival of the parental cohort from the natal colony. This result held when controlling for the effect of natal colony size and the age composition of the parental cohort. In contrast, colony-specific adult survival of offspring cross-fostered to a site was unrelated to that of their foster parent cohort or to the cohort of non-fostered offspring with whom they were reared. Adult survival at a colony varied inversely with fecundity, as measured by mean brood size, providing evidence for a survival–fecundity trade-off in this species. The results suggest some heritable variation in adult survival, likely maintained by negative correlations between fitness components. The study provides additional evidence that colonies represent non-random collections of individuals.

  15. Pore size distribution, survival probability, and relaxation time in random and ordered arrays of fibers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomadakis, Manolis M.; Robertson, Teri J.

    2003-07-01

    We present a random walk based investigation of the pore size probability distribution and its moments, the survival probability and mean survival time, and the principal relaxation time, for random and ordered arrays of cylindrical fibers of various orientation distributions. The dimensionless mean survival time, principal relaxation time, mean pore size, and mean square pore size are found to increase with porosity, remain practically independent of the directionality of random fiber beds, and attain lower values for ordered arrays. Wide pore size distributions are obtained for random fiber structures and relatively narrow for ordered square arrays, all in very good agreement with theoretically predicted limiting values. Analytical results derived for the pore size probability and its lower moments for square arrays of fibers practically coincide with the corresponding simulation results. Earlier variational bounds on the mean survival time and principal relaxation time are obeyed by our numerical results in all cases, and are found to be quite sharp up to very high porosities. Dimensionless groups representing the deviation of such bounds from our simulation results vary in practically the same range as the corresponding values reported earlier for beds of spherical particles. A universal scaling expression of the literature relating the mean survival time to the mean pore size [S. Torquato and C. L. Y. Yeong, J. Chem. Phys. 106, 8814 (1997)] agrees very well with our results for all types of fiber structures, thus validated for the first time for anisotropic porous media.

  16. Effects of amphibian chytrid fungus on individual survival probability in wild boreal toads

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pilliod, D.S.; Muths, E.; Scherer, R. D.; Bartelt, P.E.; Corn, P.S.; Hossack, B.R.; Lambert, B.A.; Mccaffery, R.; Gaughan, C.

    2010-01-01

    Chytridiomycosis is linked to the worldwide decline of amphibians, yet little is known about the demographic effects of the disease. We collected capture-recapture data on three populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas [Bufo = Anaxyrus]) in the Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.). Two of the populations were infected with chytridiomycosis and one was not. We examined the effect of the presence of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]; the agent of chytridiomycosis) on survival probability and population growth rate. Toads that were infected with Bd had lower average annual survival probability than uninfected individuals at sites where Bd was detected, which suggests chytridiomycosis may reduce survival by 31-42% in wild boreal toads. Toads that were negative for Bd at infected sites had survival probabilities comparable to toads at the uninfected site. Evidence that environmental covariates (particularly cold temperatures during the breeding season) influenced toad survival was weak. The number of individuals in diseased populations declined by 5-7%/year over the 6 years of the study, whereas the uninfected population had comparatively stable population growth. Our data suggest that the presence of Bd in these toad populations is not causing rapid population declines. Rather, chytridiomycosis appears to be functioning as a low-level, chronic disease whereby some infected individuals survive but the overall population effects are still negative. Our results show that some amphibian populations may be coexisting with Bd and highlight the importance of quantitative assessments of survival in diseased animal populations. Journal compilation. ?? 2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

  17. Nonlinear effects of winter sea ice on the survival probabilities of Adélie penguins.

    PubMed

    Ballerini, Tosca; Tavecchia, Giacomo; Olmastroni, Silvia; Pezzo, Francesco; Focardi, Silvano

    2009-08-01

    The population dynamics of Antarctic seabirds are influenced by variations in winter sea ice extent and persistence; however, the type of relationship differs according to the region and the demographic parameter considered. We used annual presence/absence data obtained from 1,138 individually marked birds to study the influence of environmental and individual characteristics on the survival of Adélie penguins Pygoscelis adeliae at Edmonson Point (Ross Sea, Antarctica) between 1994 and 2005. About 25% of 600 birds marked as chicks were reobserved at the natal colony. The capture and survival rates of Adélie penguins at this colony increased with the age of individuals, and five age classes were identified for both parameters. Mean adult survival was 0.85 (SE = 0.01), and no effect of sex on survival was evident. Breeding propensity, as measured by adult capture rates, was close to one, indicating a constant breeding effort through time. Temporal variations in survival were best explained by a quadratic relationship with winter sea ice extent anomalies in the Ross Sea, suggesting that for this region optimal conditions are intermediate between too much and too little winter sea ice. This is likely the result of a balance between suitable wintering habitat and food availability. Survival rates were not correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index. Low adult survival after a season characterized by severe environmental conditions at breeding but favorable conditions during winter suggested an additional mortality mediated by the reproductive effort. Adélie penguins are sensitive indicators of environmental changes in the Antarctic, and the results from this study provide insights into regional responses of this species to variability in winter sea ice habitat.

  18. Fingerprints of exceptional points in the survival probability of resonances in atomic spectra

    SciTech Connect

    Cartarius, Holger; Moiseyev, Nimrod

    2011-07-15

    The unique time signature of the survival probability exactly at the exceptional point parameters is studied here for the hydrogen atom in strong static magnetic and electric fields. We show that indeed the survival probability S(t)=|<{psi}(0)|{psi}(t)>|{sup 2} decays exactly as |1-at|{sup 2}e{sup -{Gamma}{sub E}{sub P}t/({Dirac_h}/2{pi})}, where {Gamma}{sub EP} is associated with the decay rate at the exceptional point and a is a complex constant depending solely on the initial wave packet that populates exclusively the two almost degenerate states of the non-Hermitian Hamiltonian. This may open the possibility for a first experimental detection of exceptional points in a quantum system.

  19. Passage and survival probabilities of juvenile Chinook salmon at Cougar Dam, Oregon, 2012

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beeman, John W.; Evans, Scott D.; Haner, Philip V.; Hansel, Hal C.; Hansen, Amy C.; Smith, Collin D.; Sprando, Jamie M.

    2014-01-01

    This report describes studies of juvenile-salmon dam passage and apparent survival at Cougar Dam, Oregon, during two operating conditions in 2012. Cougar Dam is a 158-meter tall rock-fill dam used primarily for flood control, and passes water through a temperature control tower to either a powerhouse penstock or to a regulating outlet (RO). The temperature control tower has moveable weir gates to enable water of different elevations and temperatures to be drawn through the dam to control water temperatures downstream. A series of studies of downstream dam passage of juvenile salmonids were begun after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration determined that Cougar Dam was impacting the viability of anadromous fish stocks. The primary objectives of the studies described in this report were to estimate the route-specific fish passage probabilities at the dam and to estimate the survival probabilities of fish passing through the RO. The first set of dam operating conditions, studied in November, consisted of (1) a mean reservoir elevation of 1,589 feet, (2) water entering the temperature control tower through the weir gates, (3) most water routed through the turbines during the day and through the RO during the night, and (4) mean RO gate openings of 1.2 feet during the day and 3.2 feet during the night. The second set of dam operating conditions, studied in December, consisted of (1) a mean reservoir elevation of 1,507 ft, (2) water entering the temperature control tower through the RO bypass, (3) all water passing through the RO, and (4) mean RO gate openings of 7.3 feet during the day and 7.5 feet during the night. The studies were based on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) surgically implanted with radio transmitters and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags. Inferences about general dam passage percentage and timing of volitional migrants were based on surface-acclimated fish released in the reservoir. Dam passage and apparent

  20. Do ducks and songbirds initiate more nests when the probability of survival is greater?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, Todd A.; Shaffer, Terry L.

    2015-01-01

    Nesting chronology in grassland birds can vary by species, locality, and year. The date a nest is initiated can influence the subsequent probability of its survival in some grassland bird species. Because predation is the most significant cause of nest loss in grassland birds, we examined the relation between timing of nesting and nest survival. Periods of high nest survival that correspond with the peak of nesting activity might reflect long-term adaptations to specific predation pressures commonly recurring during certain periods of the nesting cycle. We evaluated this theory by comparing timing of nesting with date-specific nest survival rates for several duck and passerine species breeding in north-central North Dakota during 1998–2003. Nest survival decreased seasonally with date for five of the seven species we studied. We found little evidence to support consistent relations between timing of nesting, the number of nest initiations, and nest survival for any species we studied, suggesting that factors other than nest predation may better explain nesting chronology for these species. The apparent mismatch between date-specific patterns of nest survival and nest initiation underscores uncertainty about the process of avian nest site selection driven mainly by predation. Although timing of nesting differed among species, the general nesting period was fairly predictable across all years of study, suggesting the potential for research activities or management actions to be timed to take advantage of known periods when nests are active (or inactive). However, our results do not support the notion that biologists can take advantage of periods when many nests are active and survival is also high.

  1. Estimating annual survival and movement rates of adults within a metapopulation of roseate terns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hays, H.; Cormons, G.D.; Burger, J.; Safina, C.; Hines, J.E.; Gochfeld, M.

    1995-01-01

    Several multistratum capture-recapture models were used to test various hypotheses about possible geographic and temporal variation in survival, movement, and recapture/resighting probabilities of 2399 adult Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) color-banded from 1988 to 1992 at the sites of the four largest breeding colonies of this species in the northeastern USA. Linear-logistic ultrastructural models also were developed to investigate possible correlates of geographic variation in movement probabilities. Based on goodness-of-fit tests and comparisons of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) values, the fully parameterized model (Model A) with time- and location-specific survival, movement, and capture probabilities, was selected as the most appropriate model for this metapopulation structure. With almost all movement accounted for, on average gt 90% of the surviving adults from each colony site returned to the same site the following year. Variations in movement probabilities were more closely associated with the identity of the destination colony site than with either the identity of the colony site of origin or the distance between colony sites. The average annual survival estimates (0.740.84) of terns from all four sites indicate a high rate of annual mortality relative to that of other species of marine birds.

  2. Survival of adult female northern pintails in Sacramento Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, Michael R.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Orthmeyer, Dennis L.; Newton, Wesley E.; Gilmer, David S.

    1995-01-01

    North American populations of northern pintails (Anas acuta) declined between 1979 and the early 1990s. To determine if low survival during winter contributed to declines, we estimated winter (last week of Aug-Feb 1987-90) survival for 190 adult (after hatching yr [AHY]) female radio-tagged pintails in late summer in Sacramento Valley (SACV), California. Survival rates did not vary by winter (P = 0.808), among preseason, hunting season, or postseason intervals (P = 0.579), or by body mass at time of capture (P = 0.127). Premolt (wing) pintails (n = 10) tended to survive at a lower rate (0.622, SE = 0.178) than pintails that had already replaced flight feathers (0.887, SE = 0.030) (P = 0.091). The pooled survival (all years) estimate for the 180-day winter was 0.874 (SE = 0.031). Hunting mortality rate (0.041-0.087) and nonhunting mortality rate (0.013-0.076) did not differ among years (P = 0.332) or within years (all P > 0.149). Legal hunting (n = 7), predation (n = 4), cholera (n = 2), illegal shooting (n = 2), botulism (n = 1), and unknown cause (n = 1) accounted for all mortality. Nonwintering survival (annu. survival/winter survival = 0.748) was lower than winter survival; thus, if gains in annual survival are desired for this population, managers should first examine the breeding-migration period for opportunities to achieve increases.

  3. Lesser scaup breeding probability and female survival on the yukon flats, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, K.H.; Lindberg, M.S.; Schmutz, J.A.; Bertram, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    Information on the ecology of waterfowl breeding in the boreal forest is lacking, despite the boreal region's importance to continental waterfowl populations and to duck species that are currently declining, such as lesser scaup (Aythya affinis). We estimated breeding probability and breeding season survival of female lesser scaup on the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA, in 2005 and 2006. We captured and marked 93 lesser scaup with radiotransmitters during prelaying and nesting periods. Although all marked lesser scaup females were paired throughout prelaying and incubation periods, we estimated breeding probability over both years as 0.12 (SE = 0.05, n = 67) using telemetry. Proportion of lesser scaup females undergoing rapid follicle growth at capture in 2006 was 0.46 (SE = 0.11, n = 37), based on concentration of yolk precursors in blood plasma. By combining methods based on telemetry, yolk precursors, and postovulatory follicles, we estimated maximum breeding probability as 0.68 (SE = 0.08, n = 37) in 2006. Notably, breeding probability was positively related to female body mass. Survival of female lesser scaup during the nesting and brood-rearing periods was 0.92 (SE = 0.05) in 2005 and 0.86 (SE = 0.08) in 2006. Our results suggest that breeding probability is lower than expected for lesser scaup. In addition, the implicit assumption of continental duck-monitoring programs that all paired females attempt to breed should be reevaluated. Recruitment estimates based on annual breeding-pair surveys may overestimate productivity of scaup pairs in the boreal forest. ?? The Wildlife Society.

  4. The survival probability of a branching random walk in presence of an absorbing wall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derrida, B.; Simon, D.

    2007-06-01

    A branching random walk in presence of an absorbing wall moving at a constant velocity v undergoes a phase transition as v varies. The problem can be analyzed using the properties of the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscounov (F-KPP) equation. We find that the survival probability of the branching random walk vanishes at a critical velocity vc of the wall with an essential singularity and we characterize the divergences of the relaxation times for vvc. At v=vc the survival probability decays like a stretched exponential. Using the F-KPP equation, one can also calculate the distribution of the population size at time t conditioned by the survival of one individual at a later time T>t. Our numerical results indicate that the size of the population diverges like the exponential of (vc-v)-1/2 in the quasi-stationary regime below vc. Moreover for v>vc, our data indicate that there is no quasi-stationary regime.

  5. Breeding productivity and adult survival in nongame birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Thomas E.; DeSante, David F.; Paine, Charles R.; Donovan, Therese M.; Dettmers, Randy; Manolis, J.C.; Burton, K.

    1995-01-01

    Demographic data (breeding productivity and adult survival) provide the kind of early warning signal that allows detection of unhealthy populations in terms of productivity or survival problems (Martin and Guepel 1993). In addition, demographic data can help determine whether population declines are the result of low breeding productivity or low survival in migration or winter. Breeding productivity data also can help identify habitat conditions associated with successful and failed breeding attempts. Such information is critical for developing habitat- and land-management practices (Martin 1992). Here, we provide examples of the kinds of information that can be obtained by broad-scale demographic studies.

  6. Corticosterone levels predict survival probabilities of Galapagos marine iguanas during El Nino events.

    PubMed

    Romero, L M; Wikelski, M

    2001-06-19

    Plasma levels of corticosterone are often used as a measure of "stress" in wild animal populations. However, we lack conclusive evidence that different stress levels reflect different survival probabilities between populations. Galápagos marine iguanas offer an ideal test case because island populations are affected differently by recurring El Niño famine events, and population-level survival can be quantified by counting iguanas locally. We surveyed corticosterone levels in six populations during the 1998 El Niño famine and the 1999 La Niña feast period. Iguanas had higher baseline and handling stress-induced corticosterone concentrations during famine than feast conditions. Corticosterone levels differed between islands and predicted survival through an El Niño period. However, among individuals, baseline corticosterone was only elevated when body condition dropped below a critical threshold. Thus, the population-level corticosterone response was variable but nevertheless predicted overall population health. Our results lend support to the use of corticosterone as a rapid quantitative predictor of survival in wild animal populations.

  7. Modeling and estimation of stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, T.R.

    2000-01-01

    In studies of avian nesting success, it is often of interest to estimate stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests. When data can be partitioned by nesting stage (e.g., incubation stage, nestling stage), piecewise application of the Mayfield method or Johnsona??s method is appropriate. However, when the data contain nests where the transition from one stage to the next occurred during the interval between visits, piecewise approaches are inappropriate. In this paper, I present a model that allows joint estimation of stage-specific daily survival probabilities even when the time of transition between stages is unknown. The model allows interval lengths between visits to nests to vary, and the exact time of failure of nests does not need to be known. The performance of the model at various sample sizes and interval lengths between visits was investigated using Monte Carlo simulations, and it was found that the model performed quite well: bias was small and confidence-interval coverage was at the nominal 95% rate. A SAS program for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and their standard errors, is provided in the Appendix.

  8. Decussion geometrics in the goldfish nervous system: correlation with probability of survival.

    PubMed Central

    Roth, R L

    1979-01-01

    In the goldfish, the optic nerve decussation occurs without intermingling of fibers from the two eyes. In two-thirds of juvenile and adult specimens, the left optic nerve is dorsal at the midline. In about 60% of the specimens, the decussation of Mauthner's neuron also has a left-dorsal-to-right (L/R) configuration. Concordance for decussation geometry is greater than 80%, with smaller specimens accounting for a disproportionate number of discordant cases. In embryos and very young larvae, the L/R configuration occurs in slightly less than 50% of optic chiasmata and in slightly more than 50% of Mauthner's cell chiasmata, and there is no significant tendency toward concordance. However, larval specimens that survive 1 month after hatching are markedly skewed toward adult decussation patterns and somewhat skewed toward concordance. These observations, together with results of cannibalization and predation experiments, suggest that the adult population pattern can be achieved through selection pressures against discordant individuals and, perhaps separately, against individuals with right-dorsal-to-left (R/L) chiasmatic configurations. Decussation patterns correlate with embryonic postures, larval orientation preferences, and growth rates after hatching, which may themselves serve as a basis for selection. PMID:291070

  9. Gender, literacy, and survival among Ethiopian adults, 1987 - 96.

    PubMed Central

    Berhane, Yemane; Hogberg, Ulf; Byass, Peter; Wall, Stig

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine relationships between gender, literacy and survival among adults in Meskan and Mareko district, Ethiopia. METHODS: On the basis of an established demographic surveillance system, an open-cohort analysis of 172726 person-years covering the period January 1987 to December 1996 was conducted in 10 randomly selected local communities. FINDINGS: The crude mortality rate was 11.2 per 1000 person-years among adults aged > or =15 years; the values for males and females were 11.9 and 10.6 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Kaplan - Meier estimates showed that literacy and being female were both favourable for survival throughout adulthood. Cox's regression models showed that age, gender, literacy and area (rural lowland, rural highland and urban) were significant factors in survival: younger, female, literate urban dwellers were the most favoured. Gender differences in mortality were small in the rural areas, possibly because of the harsh living conditions and the marginalization of women. Literacy was a more significant factor for survival in the rural areas, where mortality was highest, while gender was more important in the one urban area studied. The levels of literacy were lowest among rural females. CONCLUSION: Special attention should be given to raising literacy levels among rural women with a view to improving their survival. PMID:12378289

  10. Transgender Demographics: A Household Probability Sample of US Adults, 2014

    PubMed Central

    Berger, Mitchell B.; Graham, Louis F.; Dalton, Vanessa K.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives. To estimate the proportion of US adults who identify as transgender and to compare the demographics of the transgender and nontransgender populations. Methods. We conducted a secondary analysis of data from states and territories in the 2014 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System that asked about transgender status. The proportion of adults identified as transgender was calculated from affirmative and negative responses (n = 151 456). We analyzed data with a design-adjusted χ2 test. We also explored differences between male-to-female and nontransgender females and female-to-male and nontransgender males. Results. Transgender individuals made up 0.53% (95% confidence interval = 0.46, 0.61) of the population and were more likely to be non-White (40.0% vs 27.3%) and below the poverty line (26.0% vs 15.5%); as likely to be married (50.5% vs 47.7%), living in a rural area (28.7% vs 22.6%), and employed (54.3% vs 57.7%); and less likely to attend college (35.6% vs 56.6%) compared with nontransgender individuals. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that the transgender population is a racially diverse population present across US communities. Inequalities in the education and socioeconomic status have negative implications for the health of the transgender population. PMID:27997239

  11. Cluster geometry and survival probability in systems driven by reaction diffusion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Windus, Alastair; Jensen, Henrik J.

    2008-11-01

    We consider a reaction-diffusion model incorporating the reactions A→phi, A→2A and 2A→3A. Depending on the relative rates for sexual and asexual reproduction of the quantity A, the model exhibits either a continuous or first-order absorbing phase transition to an extinct state. A tricritical point separates the two phase lines. While we comment on this critical behaviour, the main focus of the paper is on the geometry of the population clusters that form. We observe the different cluster structures that arise at criticality for the three different types of critical behaviour and show that there exists a linear relationship for the survival probability against initial cluster size at the tricritical point only.

  12. Optimal estimation for regression models on τ-year survival probability.

    PubMed

    Kwak, Minjung; Kim, Jinseog; Jung, Sin-Ho

    2015-01-01

    A logistic regression method can be applied to regressing the [Formula: see text]-year survival probability to covariates, if there are no censored observations before time [Formula: see text]. But if some observations are incomplete due to censoring before time [Formula: see text], then the logistic regression cannot be applied. Jung (1996) proposed to modify the score function for logistic regression to accommodate the right-censored observations. His modified score function, motivated for a consistent estimation of regression parameters, becomes a regular logistic score function if no observations are censored before time [Formula: see text]. In this article, we propose a modification of Jung's estimating function for an optimal estimation for the regression parameters in addition to consistency. We prove that the optimal estimator is more efficient than Jung's estimator. This theoretical comparison is illustrated with a real example data analysis and simulations.

  13. Time-Dependence of the Survival Probability of Quarkonia in Quark-Gluon Plasma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mah Hussin, Noor Sabrina; Shalaby, Asmaa; Petridis, Athanasios

    2015-10-01

    The time-dependent Schrödinger equation is used to study the formation of quarkonia and their propagation in Quark-Gluon Plasma (QGP). The initial bound (ground) state is computed using imaginary-time propagation in a confining potential. The QGP is simulated with a confining potential of an extended asymptotic freedom region. The interior of the QGP potential may correspond to a vacuum that differs from that of the exterior region. The initial state propagates through this potential in real time. The survival probability is calculated versus time for various potential parameters and relative momenta of the quarkonium by projecting the interacting wavefunction onto its freely-propagating counterpart. In these calculations the staggered-leap frog method is used with special attention paid to the issue of stability. It is found that quarkonium decay is typically non-exponential. Fast moving states decay faster. Connection with experimental results is done by means of cross-section ratios.

  14. Comment on "Finite-size scaling of survival probability in branching processes"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Nanxin; Pruessner, Gunnar

    2016-12-01

    R. Garcia-Millan et al. [Phys. Rev. E 91, 042122 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevE.91.042122] reported a universal finite-size scaling form of the survival probability in discrete time branching processes. In this comment, we generalize the argument to a wide range of continuous time branching processes. Owing to the continuity, the resulting differential (rather than difference) equations can be solved in closed form, rendering some approximations by R. Garcia-Millan et al. superfluous, although we work along similar lines. In the case of binary branching, our results are in fact exact. Demonstrating that discrete time and continuous time models have their leading order asymptotics in common, raises the question to what extent corrections are identical.

  15. Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt, Annie E.; Dybala, Kristen E.; Botsford, Louis W.; Eadie, John M.; Bradley, Russell W.; Jahncke, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    With a rapidly changing climate, there is an increasing need to predict how species will respond to changes in the physical environment. One approach is to use historic data to estimate the past influence of environmental variation on important demographic parameters and then use these relationships to project the abundance of a population or species under future climate scenarios. However, as novel climate conditions emerge, novel species responses may also appear. In some systems, environmental conditions beyond the range of those observed during the course of most long-term ecological studies are already evident. Yet little attention has been given to how these novel conditions may be influencing previously established environment–species relationships. Here, we model the relationships between ocean conditions and the demography of a long-lived seabird, Brandt’s cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatusI), in central California and show that these relationships have changed in recent years. Beginning in 2007/2008, the response of Brandt’s cormorant, an upper trophic level predator, to ocean conditions shifted, resulting in lower than predicted survival and breeding probability. Survival was generally less variable than breeding probability and was initially best predicted by the basin-scale forcing of the El Niño Southern Oscillation rather than local ocean conditions. The shifting response of Brandt’s cormorant to ocean conditions may be just a proximate indication of altered dynamics in the food web and that important forage fish are not responding to the physical ocean environment as expected. These changing relationships have important implications for our ability to project the effects of future climate change for species and communities. PMID:26168050

  16. Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Annie E; Dybala, Kristen E; Botsford, Louis W; Eadie, John M; Bradley, Russell W; Jahncke, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    With a rapidly changing climate, there is an increasing need to predict how species will respond to changes in the physical environment. One approach is to use historic data to estimate the past influence of environmental variation on important demographic parameters and then use these relationships to project the abundance of a population or species under future climate scenarios. However, as novel climate conditions emerge, novel species responses may also appear. In some systems, environmental conditions beyond the range of those observed during the course of most long-term ecological studies are already evident. Yet little attention has been given to how these novel conditions may be influencing previously established environment-species relationships. Here, we model the relationships between ocean conditions and the demography of a long-lived seabird, Brandt's cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatusI), in central California and show that these relationships have changed in recent years. Beginning in 2007/2008, the response of Brandt's cormorant, an upper trophic level predator, to ocean conditions shifted, resulting in lower than predicted survival and breeding probability. Survival was generally less variable than breeding probability and was initially best predicted by the basin-scale forcing of the El Niño Southern Oscillation rather than local ocean conditions. The shifting response of Brandt's cormorant to ocean conditions may be just a proximate indication of altered dynamics in the food web and that important forage fish are not responding to the physical ocean environment as expected. These changing relationships have important implications for our ability to project the effects of future climate change for species and communities.

  17. Control of Cell Survival in Adult Mammalian Neurogenesis.

    PubMed

    Kuhn, H Georg

    2015-10-28

    The fact that continuous proliferation of stem cells and progenitors, as well as the production of new neurons, occurs in the adult mammalian central nervous system (CNS) raises several basic questions concerning the number of neurons required in a particular system. Can we observe continued growth of brain regions that sustain neurogenesis? Or does an elimination mechanism exist to maintain a constant number of cells? If so, are old neurons replaced, or are the new neurons competing for limited network access among each other? What signals support their survival and integration and what factors are responsible for their elimination? This review will address these and other questions regarding regulatory mechanisms that control cell-death and cell-survival mechanisms during neurogenesis in the intact adult mammalian brain.

  18. Estimation of survival of adult Florida manatees in the Crystal River, at Blue Spring, and on the Atlantic Coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, Thomas J.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

    1995-01-01

    We applied Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models to manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) photo-identification databases to estimate adult survival probabilities. The computer programs JOLLY and RECAPCO were used to estimate survival of 677 individuals in three study areas: Crystal River (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), Blue Spring (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), and the Atlantic Coast (winters 1984-85 to 1990-91). We also estimated annual survival from observations of 111 manatees tagged for studies with radiotelemetry. Survival estimated from observations with telemetry had broader confidence intervals than survival estimated with the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Annual probabilities of capture based on photo-identification records were generally high. The mean annual adult survival estimated from sighting-resighting records was 0.959-0.962 in the Crystal River and 0.936-0.948 at Blue Spring and may be high enough to permit population growth, given the values of other life-history parameters. On the Atlantic Coast, the estimated annual adult survival (range of means = 0.877-0.885) may signify a declining population. However, for several reasons, interpretation of data from the latter study group should be tempered with caution. Adult survivorship seems to be constant with age in all three study groups. No strong differences were apparent between adult survival ofmales and females in the Crystal River or at Blue Spring; the basis of significant differences between sexes on the Atlantic Coast is unclear. Future research into estimating survival with photo-identification and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models should be vigorously pursued. Estimates of annual survival can provide an additional indication of Florida manatee population status with a stronger statistical basis than aerial counts and carcass totals.

  19. Survival probability of precipitations and rain attenuation in tropical and equatorial regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohebbi Nia, Masoud; Din, Jafri; Panagopoulos, Athanasios D.; Lam, Hong Yin

    2015-08-01

    This contribution presents a stochastic model useful for the generation of a long-term tropospheric rain attenuation time series for Earth space or a terrestrial radio link in tropical and equatorial heavy rain regions based on the well-known Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model previously employed in research in the fields of finance and economics. This model assumes typical gamma distribution for rain attenuation in heavy rain climatic regions and utilises the temporal dynamic of precipitation collected in equatorial Johor, Malaysia. Different formations of survival probability are also discussed. Furthermore, the correlation between these probabilities and the Markov process is determined, and information on the variance and autocorrelation function of rain events with respect to the particular characteristics of precipitation in this area is presented. The proposed technique proved to preserve the peculiarities of precipitation for an equatorial region and reproduce fairly good statistics of the rain attenuation correlation function that could help to improve the prediction of dynamic characteristics of rain fade events.

  20. Adult Rhabdomyosarcoma Survival Improved With Treatment on Multimodality Protocols

    SciTech Connect

    Gerber, Naamit Kurshan; Wexler, Leonard H.; Singer, Samuel; Alektiar, Kaled M.; Keohan, Mary Louise; Shi, Weiji; Zhang, Zhigang; Wolden, Suzanne

    2013-05-01

    Purpose: Rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) is a pediatric sarcoma rarely occurring in adults. For unknown reasons, adults with RMS have worse outcomes than do children. Methods and Materials: We analyzed data from all patients who presented to Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between 1990 and 2011 with RMS diagnosed at age 16 or older. One hundred forty-eight patients met the study criteria. Ten were excluded for lack of adequate data. Results: The median age was 28 years. The histologic diagnoses were as follows: embryonal 54%, alveolar 33%, pleomorphic 12%, and not otherwise specified 2%. The tumor site was unfavorable in 67% of patients. Thirty-three patients (24%) were at low risk, 61 (44%) at intermediate risk, and 44 (32%) at high risk. Forty-six percent were treated on or according to a prospective RMS protocol. The 5-year rate of overall survival (OS) was 45% for patients with nonmetastatic disease. The failure rates at 5 years for patients with nonmetastatic disease were 34% for local failure and 42% for distant failure. Among patients with nonmetastatic disease (n=94), significant factors associated with OS were histologic diagnosis, site, risk group, age, and protocol treatment. On multivariate analysis, risk group and protocol treatment were significant after adjustment for age. The 5-year OS was 54% for protocol patients versus 36% for nonprotocol patients. Conclusions: Survival in adult patients with nonmetastatic disease was significantly improved for those treated on RMS protocols, most of which are now open to adults.

  1. Survival of adult female elk in yellowstone following wolf restoration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Evans, S.B.; Mech, L.D.; White, P.J.; Sargeant, G.A.

    2006-01-01

    Counts of northern Yellowstone elk (Cervus elaphus) in northwestern Wyoming and adjacent Montana, USA, have decreased at an average rate of 6-8% per year since wolves (Canis lupus) were reintroduced in 1995. Population growth rates of elk are typically sensitive to variations in adult female survival; populations that are stable or increasing exhibit high adult female survival. We used survival records for 85 radiocollared adult female elk 1-19 years old to estimate annual survival from March 2000 to February 2004. Weighted average annual survival rates were approximately 0.83 (95% CI = 0.77-0.89) for females 1-15 years old and 0.80 (95% CI = 0.73-0.86) for all females. Our estimates were much lower than the rate of 0.99 observed during 1969-1975 when fewer elk were harvested by hunters, wolves were not present, and other predators were less numerous. Of 33 documented deaths included in our analysis, we attributed 11 to hunter harvest, 14 to predation (10 wolf, 2 unknown, 1 cougar [Puma concolor], and 1 bear [Ursus sp.]), 6 to unknown causes, and 2 to winter-kill. Most deaths occurred from December through March. Estimates of cause-specific annual mortality rates were 0.09 (0.05-0.14) for all predators, 0.08 (0.04-0.13) for hunting, and 0.07 (0.03-0.11) for wolves specifically. Wolf-killed elk were typically older (median = 12 yr) than hunter-killed elk (median = 9 yr, P = 0.03). However, elk that winter outside the park where they were exposed to hunting were also younger (median = 7 yr) than elk that we did not observe outside the park (median = 9 yr, P < 0.01). Consequently, differences in ages of elk killed by wolves and hunters may reflect characteristics of elk exposed to various causes of mortality, as well as differences in susceptibility. Unless survival rates of adult females increase, elk numbers are likely to continue declining. Hunter harvest is the only cause of mortality that is amenable to management at the present time.

  2. Adult survival and productivity of Northern Fulmars in Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatch, Scott A.

    1987-01-01

    The population dynamics of Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) were studied at the Semidi Islands in the western Gulf of Alaska. Fulmars occurred in a broad range of color phases, and annual survival was estimated from the return of birds in the rarer plumage classes. A raw estimate of mean annual survival over a 5-year period was 0.963, but a removal experiment indicated the raw value was probably biased downward. The estimate of annual survival adjusted accordingly was 0.969. Mortality during the breeding season was less than 10% of the annual total, and postbreeding mortality of failed breeders was three to four times higher than that of successful breeders. Breeding success averaged 41% over 9 years. About 5% of experienced birds failed to breed each year due to physical destruction of their breeding sites, mate-loss, or other causes. An estimated 30% of the birds near the colony in one year were of prebreeding age. A comparison of population parameters in Pacific and Atlantic fulmars indicates that higher survival in the prebreeding years is the likely basis for population growth in the northeastern Atlantic. The correlation of breeding success and survival suggests both parameters may decline with age.

  3. Reproduction, preweaning survival, and survival of adult sea otters at Kodiak Island, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monson, Daniel H.; DeGange, Anthony R.

    1995-01-01

    Radiotelemetry methods were used to examine the demographic characteristics of sea otters inhabiting the leading edge of an expanding population on Kodiak Island, Alaska. Fifteen male and 30 female sea otters were instrumented and followed from 1986 to 1990. Twenty-one percent of females were sexually mature (had pupped) at age 2, 57% by age 3, 88% by age 4, and 100% by age 5. Fifteen females produced 26 pups, an overall reproduction rate of 94% for mature females. The reproduction rate was 17, 45, 66, and 100% for 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds, respectively. Eighty-five percent of observed pups survived to weaning (120 days), and the percentage of pups weaned ranged from 34% for pups of 2-year-olds to 100% for pups of 5-year-olds. At least three of four known pup losses occurred within a month of parturition. The mean pup dependency period for weaned pups was 153 days and the mean gestation period was 218 days. No synchrony in pupping activity was observed. Mean annual survival of adults was high. Estimates of survival ranged from 89 to 96% for females and 86 to 91% for males. Human harvest was the primary source of known mortality of adults. Our estimates of reproductive rates and survival of adults are at the high end of those reported for sea otters, but preweaning survival stands out as being particularly high. Abundant food resources and the availability of protected water presumably contributed to the high reproductive success observed in this recently established sea otter population.

  4. Notes on the Lumped Backward Master Equation for the Neutron Extinction/Survival Probability

    SciTech Connect

    Prinja, Anil K

    2012-07-02

    chains (a fission chain is defined as the initial source neutron and all its subsequent progeny) in which some chains are short lived while others propagate for unusually long times. Under these conditions, fission chains do not overlap strongly and this precludes the cancellation of neutron number fluctuations necessary for the mean to become established as the dominant measure of the neutron population. The fate of individual chains then plays a defining role in the evolution of the neutron population in strongly stochastic systems, and of particular interest and importance in supercritical systems is the extinction probability, defined as the probability that the neutron chain (initiating neutron and its progeny) will be extinguished at a particular time, or its complement, the time-dependent survival probability. The time-asymptotic limit of the latter, the probability of divergence, gives the probability that the neutron population will grow without bound, and is more commonly known as the probability of initiation or just POI. The ability to numerically compute these probabilities, with high accuracy and without overly restricting the underlying physics (e.g., fission neutron multiplicity, reactivity variation) is clearly essential in developing an understanding of the behavior of strongly stochastic systems.

  5. Probability of people survival in a nuclear weapon blast environment. Final report 17 Apr 79-24 Apr 80

    SciTech Connect

    Longinow, A.

    1980-05-01

    This study was concerned with predicting the probability of survival of people located in personnel shelters when subjected to the blast effects produced by the detonation of a 1-MT weapon near the ground surface. Personnel shelters analyzed re buried or with the roof slab at grade. The roof slab is the weakest structural component. Its partial or total collapse results in casualties. When the shelter is thus breached, casualties can also be produced by the blast loading when overpressures are sufficiently high. The analysis formulated predicts the probability of roof slab survival when subjected to an airblast loading. Probability of people survival against slab collapse is estimated based on the fraction of shelter area unaffected by collapse. Probability of survival against blast pressure entering the shelter area is determined using available casualty data. Results are combined to yield the probability of survival against both effects. The analysis considers the variability of selected geometric parameters of the roof slab, material properties and airblast parameters.

  6. Variance estimation when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) with survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C

    2016-12-30

    Propensity score methods are used to reduce the effects of observed confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments or exposures. A popular method of using the propensity score is inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). When using this method, a weight is calculated for each subject that is equal to the inverse of the probability of receiving the treatment that was actually received. These weights are then incorporated into the analyses to minimize the effects of observed confounding. Previous research has found that these methods result in unbiased estimation when estimating the effect of treatment on survival outcomes. However, conventional methods of variance estimation were shown to result in biased estimates of standard error. In this study, we conducted an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations to examine different methods of variance estimation when using a weighted Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the effect of treatment. We considered three variance estimation methods: (i) a naïve model-based variance estimator; (ii) a robust sandwich-type variance estimator; and (iii) a bootstrap variance estimator. We considered estimation of both the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect in the treated. We found that the use of a bootstrap estimator resulted in approximately correct estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with the correct coverage rates. The other estimators resulted in biased estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with incorrect coverage rates. Our simulations were informed by a case study examining the effect of statin prescribing on mortality. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Seasonal and annual survival of adult Pacific brant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, David H.; Rexstad, Eric A.; Sedinger, James S.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Dawe, Neil K.

    1997-01-01

    Declining mid-winter counts of Pacific brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) and reduced numbers of nesting birds on their main breeding grounds prompted us to assess factors that may be limiting recovery of this population. We estimated seasonal and annual survival rates of adult brant in 1986-93 from resightings of leg-banded birds. Brant were banded at a major colony on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska (Y-K Delta) in 1986-92, and resighted there in 1987-93 as well as at major fall and spring migration and wintering areas in 1990-93. Seasonal survival was the same for males and females. Mean monthly survival rate was lowest (P ≤ 0.05) in late spring migration (15 Apr-1 Jun), the period of greatest subsistence harvest on the breeding grounds, and highest in winter (1 Jan-1 Mar), the period of greatest sport harvest. Annual survival rate did not vary among years (F = 0.51; 5, 718 df; P = 0.91) and averaged 0.840 (SE = 0.031) from 1986 to 1993. Subsistence harvest has contributed to low population levels of Pacific brant.

  8. Posttournament survival and dispersal of adult striped bass

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Young, S.P.; Isely, J.J.

    2006-01-01

    We conducted a telemetry study from November 2004 to June 2005 at J. Strom Thurmond Reservoir in South Carolina and Georgia to quantify posttournament survival of striped bass and their dispersal from tournament weigh-in sites. During November-December 2004, 30 adult striped bass weighing 1.0-10.0 kg were angled, held in "striped bass tube" live-holding systems for 2-5 h, transported to a predetermined weigh-in and release site, and surgically implanted with telemetry transmitters. All striped bass survived transport, recovered from the surgical procedure, and were immediately released. The postrelease survival rate after 120 d was 87%. Surviving striped bass dispersed from the release site within 2-9 d. Fifty-four percent returned to their capture sites. Capture, holding, displacement, and weigh-in appeared to have no long-term adverse affects on behavior. Live release of striped bass may now be a viable option after tournaments during periods of cool water temperatures. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  9. Effects of ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall on annual survival of adult little penguins Eudyptula minor in southeastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganendran, L. B.; Sidhu, L. A.; Catchpole, E. A.; Chambers, L. E.; Dann, P.

    2016-08-01

    Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based activities such as breeding and, for some species, moult; particularly if they undergo a catastrophic moult (complete simultaneous moult) as do penguins. We investigated potential relationships between adult penguin survival and land-based climate variables (ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall) using 46 years of mark-recapture data of little penguins Eudyptula minor gathered at a breeding colony on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia. Our results showed that adult penguin survival had a stronger association with land-based climate variables during the moult period, when birds were unable to go to sea for up to 3 weeks, than during the breeding period, when birds could sacrifice breeding success in favour of survival. Annual adult survival probability was positively associated with humidity during moult and negatively associated with rainfall during moult. Prolonged heat during breeding and moult had a negative association with annual adult survival. Local climate projections suggest increasing days of high temperatures, fewer days of rainfall which will result in more droughts (and by implication, lower humidity) and more extreme rainfall events. All of these predicted climate changes are expected to have a negative impact on adult penguin survival.

  10. Transcriptomic and Proteomic Analysis of Arion vulgaris—Proteins for Probably Successful Survival Strategies?

    PubMed Central

    Bulat, Tanja; Smidak, Roman; Sialana, Fernando J.; Jung, Gangsoo; Rattei, Thomas; Bilban, Martin; Sattmann, Helmut; Lubec, Gert; Aradska, Jana

    2016-01-01

    The Spanish slug, Arion vulgaris, is considered one of the hundred most invasive species in Central Europe. The immense and very successful adaptation and spreading of A. vulgaris suggest that it developed highly effective mechanisms to deal with infections and natural predators. Current transcriptomic and proteomic studies on gastropods have been restricted mainly to marine and freshwater gastropods. No transcriptomic or proteomic study on A. vulgaris has been carried out so far, and in the current study, the first transcriptomic database from adult specimen of A. vulgaris is reported. To facilitate and enable proteomics in this non-model organism, a mRNA-derived protein database was constructed for protein identification. A gel-based proteomic approach was used to obtain the first generation of a comprehensive slug mantle proteome. A total of 2128 proteins were unambiguously identified; 48 proteins represent novel proteins with no significant homology in NCBI non-redundant database. Combined transcriptomic and proteomic analysis revealed an extensive repertoire of novel proteins with a role in innate immunity including many associated pattern recognition, effector proteins and cytokine-like proteins. The number and diversity in gene families encoding lectins point to a complex defense system, probably as a result of adaptation to a pathogen-rich environment. These results are providing a fundamental and important resource for subsequent studies on molluscs as well as for putative antimicrobial compounds for drug discovery and biomedical applications. PMID:26986963

  11. Transcriptomic and Proteomic Analysis of Arion vulgaris--Proteins for Probably Successful Survival Strategies?

    PubMed

    Bulat, Tanja; Smidak, Roman; Sialana, Fernando J; Jung, Gangsoo; Rattei, Thomas; Bilban, Martin; Sattmann, Helmut; Lubec, Gert; Aradska, Jana

    2016-01-01

    The Spanish slug, Arion vulgaris, is considered one of the hundred most invasive species in Central Europe. The immense and very successful adaptation and spreading of A. vulgaris suggest that it developed highly effective mechanisms to deal with infections and natural predators. Current transcriptomic and proteomic studies on gastropods have been restricted mainly to marine and freshwater gastropods. No transcriptomic or proteomic study on A. vulgaris has been carried out so far, and in the current study, the first transcriptomic database from adult specimen of A. vulgaris is reported. To facilitate and enable proteomics in this non-model organism, a mRNA-derived protein database was constructed for protein identification. A gel-based proteomic approach was used to obtain the first generation of a comprehensive slug mantle proteome. A total of 2128 proteins were unambiguously identified; 48 proteins represent novel proteins with no significant homology in NCBI non-redundant database. Combined transcriptomic and proteomic analysis revealed an extensive repertoire of novel proteins with a role in innate immunity including many associated pattern recognition, effector proteins and cytokine-like proteins. The number and diversity in gene families encoding lectins point to a complex defense system, probably as a result of adaptation to a pathogen-rich environment. These results are providing a fundamental and important resource for subsequent studies on molluscs as well as for putative antimicrobial compounds for drug discovery and biomedical applications.

  12. Quantifying the impact of longline fisheries on adult survival in the black-footed albatross

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Veran, S.; Gimenez, O.; Flint, E.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; Lebreton, J.D.

    2007-01-01

    1. Industrial longline fishing has been suspected to impact upon black-footed albatross populations Phoebastria nigripes by increasing mortality, but no precise estimates of bycatch mortality are available to ascertain this statement. We present a general framework for quantifying the relationship between albatross population and longline fishing in absence of reliable estimates of bycatch rate. 2. We analysed capture?recapture data of a population of black-footed albatross to obtain estimates of survival probability for this population using several alternative models to adequately take into account heterogeneity in the recapture process. Instead of trying to estimate the number of birds killed by using various extrapolations and unchecked assumptions, we investigate the potential relationship between annual adult survival and several measures of fishing effort. Although we considered a large number of covariates, we used principal component analysis to generate a few uncorrelated synthetic variables from the set and thus we maintained both power and robustness. 3. The average survival for 1997?2002 was 92%, a low value compared to estimates available for other albatross species. We found that one of the synthetic variables used to summarize industrial longline fishing significantly explained more than 40% of the variation in adult survival over 11 years, suggesting an impact by longline fishing on albatross? survival. 4. Our analysis provides some evidence of non-linear variation in survival with fishing effort. This could indicate that below a certain level of fishing effort, deaths due to incidental catch can be partially or totally compensated for by a decrease in natural mortality. Another possible explanation is the existence of a strong interspecific competition for accessing the baits, reducing the risk of being accidentally hooked. 5. Synthesis and applications. The suspicion of a significant impact of longline fishing on the black-footed albatross

  13. INCLUDING TRANSITION PROBABILITIES IN NEST SURVIVAL ESTIMATION: A MAYFIELD MARKOV CHAIN

    EPA Science Inventory

    This manuscript is primarily an exploration of the statistical properties of nest-survival estimates for terrestrial songbirds. The Mayfield formulation described herein should allow researchers to test for complicated effects of stressors on daily survival and overall success, i...

  14. How the probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates: a European survey using vignettes

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Michael; Frey, Peter; Esteva, Magdalena; Gašparović Babić, Svjetlana; Marzo-Castillejo, Mercè; Petek, Davorina; Petek Ster, Marija; Thulesius, Hans

    2017-01-01

    Objective European cancer survival rates vary widely. System factors, including whether or not primary care physicians (PCPs) are gatekeepers, may account for some of these differences. This study explores where patients who may have cancer are likely to present for medical care in different European countries, and how probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates. Design Seventy-eight PCPs in a range of European countries assessed four vignettes representing patients who might have cancer, and consensus groups agreed how likely those patients were to present to different clinicians in their own countries. These data were compared with national cancer survival rates. Setting A total of 14 countries. Subjects Consensus groups of PCPs. Main outcome measures Probability of initial presentation to a PCP for four clinical vignettes. Results There was no significant correlation between overall national 1-year relative cancer survival rates and the probability of initial presentation to a PCP (r  = −0.16, 95% CI −0.39 to 0.08). Within that there was large variation depending on the type of cancer, with a significantly poorer lung cancer survival in countries where patients were more likely to initially consult a PCP (lung r = −0.57, 95% CI −0.83 to −0.12; ovary: r = −0.13, 95% CI −0.57 to 0.38; breast r = 0.14, 95% CI −0.36 to 0.58; bowel: r = 0.20, 95% CI −0.31 to 0.62). Conclusions There were wide variations in the degree of gatekeeping between countries, with no simple binary model as to whether or not a country has a “PCP-as-gatekeeper” system. While there was case-by-case variation, there was no overall evidence of a link between a higher probability of initial consultation with a PCP and poorer cancer survival. Key points European cancer survival rates vary widely, and health system factors may account for some of these differences. The data from 14 European

  15. Annual survival rates of adult and immature eastern population tundra swans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Bart, J.; Limpert, R.J.; Sladen, William J. L.; Hines, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    Tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus ) of the eastern population were neckbanded in Maryland, North Carolina, and Alaska from 1966 through 1990. These swans were resighted and recaptured during autumn, winter, and spring, 1966-1990. Although the original motivation for this study involved swan movements, we wanted to use the resulting data to test hypotheses about sources of variation in swan survival rates. Recaptures of legbanded and neckbanded swans permitted us to estimate neckband loss rates, which were found to vary with age and sex of swans, and number of years since initial application. Estimates of annual neckband retention rate ranged from about 0.50 for adult male swans greater than or equal to 2 years after initial neckbanding to > 0.96 for immature swans and adult females the first year following neckbanding. This variation in neckband loss rates prevented the simple correction of survival estimates to account for such loss. Consequently, we developed a series of multinomial models parameterized with survival, sighting, and neckband retention probabilities for use with the recapture and resighting data.

  16. Variations in the survival probabilities of the PVC-protected red mangrove propagules: testing the encased replanting technique.

    PubMed

    López-Ortiz, M I; Pérez, C M; Suárez, E; Ríos-Dávila, R

    1999-12-01

    The EcoEléctrica Mangrove Planting Project, a five-year voluntary effort, has the purpose of testing a recently developed mangrove planting technique at the EcoEléctrica site in Peñuelas, Puerto Rico. The goal of the project is to provide empirical validation to promote or improve the technique to be used in recovering mangrove ecosystems in Puerto Rico and United States. The research presented herein analyzed the information collected on the first two years of the project. The proportions of remaining casings and seeds per study zone were compared using the chi-square distribution. Zone 1 had the least pipes lost while Zone 4 had the most (p < 0.05). Forty-three percent of the seeds in Zone 1 remained in the casing, while 26% remained in Zone 2 (p = 0.03). Median growth rates of seeds per study zone showed that Zone 1 had the highest median growth rates. Survival analysis described the survival experience of the seeds, and differences in survival probabilities were compared with the log-rank test. Zone 1 seeds had a better survival experience compared to Zones 2, 3 and 4 (p < 0.0001). Survival probabilities for being free of spots were over 60% during the whole study period. No significant differences were observed in the survival experience with the use-or-no use of casing extensions (p = 0.40), and the use-or-no use of nursed seeds (p = 0.26). Differences in survival probabilities might be attributed to variations in wave energy, depth or substrate conditions. This hypothesis will be evaluated in the second phase of the study.

  17. A comparison of conventional capture versus PIT reader techniques for estimating survival and capture probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellison, L.E.; O'Shea, T.J.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Pearce, R.D.; Bowen, R.A.

    2007-01-01

    We compared conventional capture (primarily mist nets and harp traps) and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging techniques for estimating capture and survival probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) roosting in buildings in Fort Collins, Colorado. A total of 987 female adult and juvenile bats were captured and marked by subdermal injection of PIT tags during the summers of 2001-2005 at five maternity colonies in buildings. Openings to roosts were equipped with PIT hoop-style readers, and exit and entry of bats were passively monitored on a daily basis throughout the summers of 2002-2005. PIT readers 'recaptured' adult and juvenile females more often than conventional capture events at each roost. Estimates of annual capture probabilities for all five colonies were on average twice as high when estimated from PIT reader data (P?? = 0.93-1.00) than when derived from conventional techniques (P?? = 0.26-0.66), and as a consequence annual survival estimates were more precisely estimated when using PIT reader encounters. Short-term, daily capture estimates were also higher using PIT readers than conventional captures. We discuss the advantages and limitations of using PIT tags and passive encounters with hoop readers vs. conventional capture techniques for estimating these vital parameters in big brown bats. ?? Museum and Institute of Zoology PAS.

  18. Sugar administration to newly emerged Aedes albopictus males increases their survival probability and mating performance.

    PubMed

    Bellini, Romeo; Puggioli, Arianna; Balestrino, Fabrizio; Brunelli, Paolo; Medici, Anna; Urbanelli, Sandra; Carrieri, Marco

    2014-04-01

    Aedes albopictus male survival in laboratory cages is no more than 4-5 days when kept without any access to sugar indicating their need to feed on a sugar source soon after emergence. We therefore developed a device to administer energetic substances to newly emerged males when released as pupae as part of a sterile insect technique (SIT) programme, made with a polyurethane sponge 4 cm thick and perforated with holes 2 cm in diameter. The sponge was imbibed with the required sugar solution and due to its high retention capacity the sugar solution was available for males to feed for at least 48 h. When evaluated in lab cages, comparing adults emerged from the device with sugar solution vs the device with water only (as negative control), about half of the males tested positive for fructose using the Van Handel anthrone test, compared to none of males in the control cage. We then tested the tool in semi-field and in field conditions with different sugar concentrations (10%, 15%, and 20%) and compared results to the controls fed with water only. Males were recaptured by a battery operated manual aspirator at 24 and 48 h after pupae release. Rather high share 10-25% of captured males tested positive for fructose in recollections in the vicinity of the control stations, while in the vicinity of the sugar stations around 40-55% of males were positive, though variability between replicates was large. The sugar positive males in the control test may have been released males that had access to natural sugar sources found close to the release station and/or wild males present in the environment. Only a slight increase in the proportion of positive males was obtained by increasing the sugar concentration in the feeding device from 10% to 20%. Surprisingly, modification of the device to add a black plastic inverted funnel above the container reduced rather than increased the proportion of fructose positive males collected around the station. No evidence of difference in the

  19. Effects of food restriction across stages of juvenile and early adult development on body weight, survival and adult life history.

    PubMed

    Wong, J W Y; Kölliker, M

    2014-11-01

    Organisms have to allocate limited resources among multiple life-history traits, which can result in physiological trade-offs, and variation in environmental conditions experienced during ontogeny can influence reproduction later in life. Food restriction may lead to an adaptive reallocation of the limited resources among traits as a phenotypically plastic adjustment, or it can act as an overall constraint with detrimental effects throughout reproductive life. In this study, we investigated experimentally the effects of food restriction during different stages of the juvenile and early adult development on body weight, survival and reproductive success in females and males of the European earwig Forficula auricularia. Individuals either received limited or unlimited access to food across three different stages of development (fully crossed) allowing us to identify sensitive periods during development and to test both additive and interactive effects of food limitation across stages on development and reproduction. Food restriction during the early and late juvenile stage had additive negative effects on juvenile survival and adult body weight. With regard to reproductive success of females which produce up to two clutches in their lifetime, restriction specifically in the late juvenile stage led to smaller first and second clutch size, lower probability of second clutch production and reduced hatching success in the second clutch. Reproductive success of females was not significantly affected when their male mates experienced food restriction during their development. Our findings in general support the 'silver-spoon' hypothesis in that food restriction during juvenile development poses constraints on development and reproduction throughout life.

  20. Survival and other observations of adult female northern pintails molting in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, M.R.; Fleskes, J.P.; Orthmeyer, D.L.; Gilmer, D.S.

    1992-01-01

    Survival rates of nine adult female Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) that became flightless after being radio-marked in the Sacramento Valley, California in August 1987-1989 were estimated. Seven of the radio-marked pintails molted in the Sacramento Valley, a nontraditional molting region, and two flew 280 km north to the Klamath Basin to molt. Molting marshes were dominated by emergent vegetation in both locations. Two ducks, while flightless in the Sacramento Valley, were killed by predators. Molting pintails remained sedentary (did not fly) for an average of 36 d, and the daily survival rate during this period was 0.9934. The resulting sedentary-period survival rate was 0.79. Primary feather 9 on two captive ducks grew an average of 4.2 mm per day. Mean body mass of molting ducks that died was lower than that for molting ducks that survived (P < 0.10). The number of pintails molting on Sacramento Valley refuges is probably <200.

  1. Probabilities for survival of glassy-winged sharpshooter and olive fruit fly pests in urban yard waste piles.

    PubMed

    Crohn, David M; Faber, Ben; Downer, A James; Daugovish, Oleg

    2008-03-01

    Glassy-winged sharpshooter (Homolodisca coagulate) and olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae) were introduced into unturned, chipped yard waste piles to evaluate their survival with time and depth within the piles. In all three trials, no pests lasted more than 14 d, and in no trial did pests survive more than 4d at the 30 and 100 cm depths. No survivors were found after 14 d in any of the treatments at any depth. Neither of the pests survived 100 cm after 2d. A mathematical model for describing pest survival probabilities is described. The model modifies time according to the Arrhenius equation in order to include heat effects on pest survival and can be used to determine exposure times necessary to eliminate these pests with a determined statistical probability. Model projections suggest that for conditions similar to this study, there is 99% confidence that all glassy-winged sharpshooter eggs would be eliminated from 1000 infected leaves in 6.1d at 15 cm depth and in 4.8d at 30 cm or below. Olive fruit fly larvae at these depths would require 4.8 and 4.1d, respectively, for 1000 infected olive fruits. Projected elimination times at the surface were longer, 6.5d for sharpshooter eggs and 14.3d for fruit fly larvae.

  2. Measuring Adult Mortality Using Sibling Survival: A New Analytical Method and New Results for 44 Countries, 1974–2006

    PubMed Central

    Obermeyer, Ziad; Rajaratnam, Julie Knoll; Park, Chang H.; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Hogan, Margaret C.; Lopez, Alan D.; Murray, Christopher J. L.

    2010-01-01

    Background For several decades, global public health efforts have focused on the development and application of disease control programs to improve child survival in developing populations. The need to reliably monitor the impact of such intervention programs in countries has led to significant advances in demographic methods and data sources, particularly with large-scale, cross-national survey programs such as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Although no comparable effort has been undertaken for adult mortality, the availability of large datasets with information on adult survival from censuses and household surveys offers an important opportunity to dramatically improve our knowledge about levels and trends in adult mortality in countries without good vital registration. To date, attempts to measure adult mortality from questions in censuses and surveys have generally led to implausibly low levels of adult mortality owing to biases inherent in survey data such as survival and recall bias. Recent methodological developments and the increasing availability of large surveys with information on sibling survival suggest that it may well be timely to reassess the pessimism that has prevailed around the use of sibling histories to measure adult mortality. Methods and Findings We present the Corrected Sibling Survival (CSS) method, which addresses both the survival and recall biases that have plagued the use of survey data to estimate adult mortality. Using logistic regression, our method directly estimates the probability of dying in a given country, by age, sex, and time period from sibling history data. The logistic regression framework borrows strength across surveys and time periods for the estimation of the age patterns of mortality, and facilitates the implementation of solutions for the underrepresentation of high-mortality families and recall bias. We apply the method to generate estimates of and trends in adult mortality, using the summary measure 45q

  3. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  4. A dynamic Bayesian network approach for time-specific survival probability prediction in patients after ventricular assist device implantation.

    PubMed

    Exarchos, Themis P; Rigas, George; Goletsis, Yorgos; Stefanou, Kostas; Jacobs, Steven; Trivella, Maria-Giovanna; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I

    2014-01-01

    In this work we present a decision support tool for the calculation of time-dependent survival probability for patients after ventricular assist device implantation. Two different models have been developed, a short term one which predicts survival for the first three months and a long term one that predicts survival for one year after implantation. In order to model the time dependencies between the different time slices of the problem, a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) approach has been employed. DBNs order to capture the temporal events of the patient disease and the temporal data availability. High accuracy results have been reported for both models. The short and long term DBNs reached an accuracy of 96.97% and 93.55% respectively.

  5. Predictors of the new criteria for probable PTSD among older adults.

    PubMed

    Palgi, Yuval

    2015-12-30

    The definition of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) changed in the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-5) and it is yet unclear how these changes affect the diagnosis of PTSD among older adults. The present study examined the contribution of demographic characteristics, functioning status, health related factors, as well as exposure to rocket attacks to prediction of probable PTSD in older adults. Three-hundred and thirty-nine community-dwelling adults (age range 50-90; M=65.44, SD=9.77) were sampled through random dialing to Jewish residents in the south of Israel. Participants completed a phone-questionnaire that collected background information and reports of relevant symptoms. Analyses showed that self-rated health, incidence of depression episodes, and exposure to rocket attacks predicted the DSM-5 definition of PTSD as well as the subscale of negative alternations in cognition and mood. The current study delineates the unique set of predictors of probable PTSD in older adults, with an emphasis on negative alternations in cognition and mood. Greater attention to unique predictors of PTSD in the second half of life is called for.

  6. White matter alterations in adults with probable developmental coordination disorder: an MRI diffusion tensor imaging study.

    PubMed

    Williams, Jacqueline; Kashuk, Saman R; Wilson, Peter H; Thorpe, Graham; Egan, Gary F

    2017-01-18

    Movement skill difficulties in children [or developmental coordination disorder (DCD)] often persist into adulthood (in up to 70% of cases). The suggestion of white matter microstructure alterations in children with DCD raises the question of whether similar alterations are present in adults with probable DCD (pDCD). Twelve adults with pDCD and 11 adults without pDCD underwent diffusion tensor imaging. The results showed that the pDCD group had significantly lower fractional anisotropy in the corticospinal tract and superior longitudinal fasciculus and lower mean diffusivity in the internal capsule and inferior longitudinal fasciculus. This suggests reduced white matter integrity in parietofrontal and corticospinal tracts, with possible compensatory increases in white matter integrity along the visual ventral stream and front-occipital networks. These findings support recent neuroimaging studies in children with DCD and suggest persistent neurobiological alterations along white matter tracts that are known to support motor planning, cognition and their association.

  7. One step forward: contrasting the effects of Toe clipping and PIT tagging on frog survival and recapture probability.

    PubMed

    Guimarães, Murilo; Corrêa, Décio T; Filho, Sérgio S; Oliveira, Thiago A L; Doherty, Paul F; Sawaya, Ricardo J

    2014-04-01

    Amphibians have been declining worldwide and the comprehension of the threats that they face could be improved by using mark-recapture models to estimate vital rates of natural populations. Recently, the consequences of marking amphibians have been under discussion and the effects of toe clipping on survival are debatable, although it is still the most common technique for individually identifying amphibians. The passive integrated transponder (PIT tag) is an alternative technique, but comparisons among marking techniques in free-ranging populations are still lacking. We compared these two marking techniques using mark-recapture models to estimate apparent survival and recapture probability of a neotropical population of the blacksmith tree frog, Hypsiboas faber. We tested the effects of marking technique and number of toe pads removed while controlling for sex. Survival was similar among groups, although slightly decreased from individuals with one toe pad removed, to individuals with two and three toe pads removed, and finally to PIT-tagged individuals. No sex differences were detected. Recapture probability slightly increased with the number of toe pads removed and was the lowest for PIT-tagged individuals. Sex was an important predictor for recapture probability, with males being nearly five times more likely to be recaptured. Potential negative effects of both techniques may include reduced locomotion and high stress levels. We recommend the use of covariates in models to better understand the effects of marking techniques on frogs. Accounting for the effect of the technique on the results should be considered, because most techniques may reduce survival. Based on our results, but also on logistical and cost issues associated with PIT tagging, we suggest the use of toe clipping with anurans like the blacksmith tree frog.

  8. One step forward: contrasting the effects of Toe clipping and PIT tagging on frog survival and recapture probability

    PubMed Central

    Guimarães, Murilo; Corrêa, Décio T; Filho, Sérgio S; Oliveira, Thiago A L; Doherty, Paul F; Sawaya, Ricardo J

    2014-01-01

    Amphibians have been declining worldwide and the comprehension of the threats that they face could be improved by using mark–recapture models to estimate vital rates of natural populations. Recently, the consequences of marking amphibians have been under discussion and the effects of toe clipping on survival are debatable, although it is still the most common technique for individually identifying amphibians. The passive integrated transponder (PIT tag) is an alternative technique, but comparisons among marking techniques in free-ranging populations are still lacking. We compared these two marking techniques using mark–recapture models to estimate apparent survival and recapture probability of a neotropical population of the blacksmith tree frog, Hypsiboas faber. We tested the effects of marking technique and number of toe pads removed while controlling for sex. Survival was similar among groups, although slightly decreased from individuals with one toe pad removed, to individuals with two and three toe pads removed, and finally to PIT-tagged individuals. No sex differences were detected. Recapture probability slightly increased with the number of toe pads removed and was the lowest for PIT-tagged individuals. Sex was an important predictor for recapture probability, with males being nearly five times more likely to be recaptured. Potential negative effects of both techniques may include reduced locomotion and high stress levels. We recommend the use of covariates in models to better understand the effects of marking techniques on frogs. Accounting for the effect of the technique on the results should be considered, because most techniques may reduce survival. Based on our results, but also on logistical and cost issues associated with PIT tagging, we suggest the use of toe clipping with anurans like the blacksmith tree frog. PMID:24834342

  9. Intraseasonal variation in survival and probable causes of mortality in greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Blomberg, Erik J.; Gibson, Daniel; Sedinger, James S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.

    2013-01-01

    The mortality process is a key component of avian population dynamics, and understanding factors that affect mortality is central to grouse conservation. Populations of greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus have declined across their range in western North America. We studied cause-specific mortality of radio-marked sage-grouse in Eureka County, Nevada, USA, during two seasons, nesting (2008-2012) and fall (2008-2010), when survival was known to be lower compared to other times of the year. We used known-fate and cumulative incidence function models to estimate weekly survival rates and cumulative risk of cause-specific mortalities, respectively. These methods allowed us to account for temporal variation in sample size and staggered entry of marked individuals into the sample to obtain robust estimates of survival and cause-specific mortality. We monitored 376 individual sage-grouse during the course of our study, and investigated 87 deaths. Predation was the major source of mortality, and accounted for 90% of all mortalities during our study. During the nesting season (1 April - 31 May), the cumulative risk of predation by raptors (0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.16) and mammals (0.08; 95% CI: 0.03-013) was relatively equal. In the fall (15 August - 31 October), the cumulative risk of mammal predation was greater (M(mam) = 0.12; 95% CI: 0.04-0.19) than either predation by raptors (M(rap) = 0.05; 95% CI: 0.00-0.10) or hunting harvest (M(hunt) = 0.02; 95% CI: 0.0-0.06). During both seasons, we observed relatively few additional sources of mortality (e.g. collision) and observed no evidence of disease-related mortality (e.g. West Nile Virus). In general, we found little evidence for intraseasonal temporal variation in survival, suggesting that the nesting and fall seasons represent biologically meaningful time intervals with respect to sage-grouse survival.

  10. Favourable ten-year overall survival in a Caucasian population with high probability of hereditary breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The purpose of our study was to compare differences in the prognosis of breast cancer (BC) patients at high (H) risk or intermediate slightly (IS) increased risk based on family history and those without a family history of BC, and to evaluate whether ten-year overall survival can be considered a good indicator of BRCA1 gene mutation. Methods We classified 5923 breast cancer patients registered between 1988 and 2006 at the Department of Oncology and Haematology in Modena, Italy, into one of three different risk categories according to Modena criteria. One thousand eleven patients at H and IS increased risk were tested for BRCA1/2 mutations. The overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) were the study end-points. Results Eighty BRCA1 carriers were identified. A statistically significantly better prognosis was observed for patients belonging to the H risk category with respect to women in the IS and sporadic groups (82% vs.75% vs.73%, respectively; p < 0.0001). Comparing only BRCA1 carriers with BRCA-negative and sporadic BC (77% vs.77% vs.73%, respectively; p < 0.001) an advantage in OS was seen. Conclusions Patients belonging to a population with a high probability of being BRCA1 carriers had a better prognosis than those with sporadic BC. Considering these results, women who previously had BC and had survived ten years could be selected for BRCA1 analysis among family members at high risk of hereditary BC during genetic counselling. Since only 30% of patients with a high probability of having hereditary BC have BRCA1 mutations, selecting women with a long term survival among this population could increase the rate of positive analyses, avoiding the use of expensive tests. PMID:20219108

  11. Adaptive Memory: Survival Processing Increases Both True and False Memory in Adults and Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otgaar, Henry; Smeets, Tom

    2010-01-01

    Research has shown that processing information in a survival context can enhance the information's memorability. The current study examined whether survival processing can also decrease the susceptibility to false memories and whether the survival advantage can be found in children. In Experiment 1, adults rated semantically related words in a…

  12. Competing events influence estimated survival probability: when is Kaplan-Meier analysis appropriate?

    PubMed

    Biau, David Jean; Latouche, Aurélien; Porcher, Raphaël

    2007-09-01

    The Kaplan-Meier estimator is the current method for estimating the probability of an event to occur with time in orthopaedics. However, the Kaplan-Meier estimator was designed to estimate the probability of an event that eventually will occur for all patients, ie, death, and this does not hold for other outcomes. For example, not all patients will experience hip arthroplasty loosening because some may die first, and some may have their implant removed to treat infection or recurrent hip dislocation. Such events that preclude the observation of the event of interest are called competing events. We suggest the Kaplan-Meier estimator is inappropriate in the presence of competing events and show that it overestimates the probability of the event of interest to occur with time. The cumulative incidence estimator is an alternative approach to Kaplan-Meier in situations where competing risks are likely. Three common situations include revision for implant loosening in the long-term followup of arthroplasties or implant failure in the context of limb-salvage surgery or femoral neck fracture.

  13. The tumor control probability model for transperineal permanent prostate brachytherapy and prostate-specific antigen failure free survival

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prete, James John

    1999-12-01

    The studies proposed were designed to investigate the relationship between transperineal permanent prostate implant quality, as modeled by the radiobiologicalquantifier of implant quality, tumor control probability (TCP), and treatment efficacy, as measured by prostatespecific antigen (PSA) failure free survival. It was hypothesized that TCP could be useful in identifying which patients, or group of patients, might be at an increased risk for treatment failure among patients receiving 125I transperineal permanent prostate brachytherapy (TPPB) as the sole modality of treatment for early or intermediate stage prostatic carcinoma. The formal statement of hypothesis was that the linear- quadratic tumor control probability model for monotherapeutic 125I transperineal permanent prostate brahytherapy correlates with prostate- specific antigen failure free survival. The specific aims were: [i]to implement the TCP model in a computerized treatment planning system for TPPB, using the recently recommended dose calculation formalism and benchmark data presented in AAPM TG43 and validate it, [ii]to compute and examine the relationship between TCP and PSA failure free survival for patients receiving monotherapeutic 125I TPPB, [iii]to investigate the influence of the definition of PSA failure on the relationship between TCP and PSA failure free survival rates, and [iv]to develop a method for improving the TCP model. The conclusions were: [i]the model as implemented using AAPM TG43 formalism, produced results which were similar to that calculated by the original model. TCP was demonstrated to correlate strongly and similarly with underdosed prostate volume in comparison to data published from the original model, [ii]an analysis of 125I implants demonstrated that patients stratified into the high TCP group had PSA failure free survival rates which were superior to the rates for patients in the low TCP group, regardless of which of the five definitions of PSA failure was applied to

  14. Immunohistochemical and ultrastructural changes in the brain in probable adult glycogenosis type IV: adult polyglucosan body disease.

    PubMed

    Wierzba-Bobrowicz, Teresa; Lewandowska, Eliza; Stepień, Tomasz; Modzelewska, Joanna

    2008-01-01

    Glycogenosis type IV is caused by a deficiency of glycogen branching enzyme (alpha-1,4 glucan 6-transglucosylase). Adult polyglucosan body disease (APBD) may represent a neuropathological hallmark of the adult form of this storage disease of the central nervous system. We analysed a case of a 45-year-old unconscious woman who died three days after admission to the hospital. Neuropathological examination revealed massive accumulation of polyglucosan bodies (PBs) in the cortex and white matter of the whole brain. PBs were located in the processes of neurons, astrocytes and microglial cells. The storage material in the cytoplasm of neurons and glial cells was visible as fine granules. Ultrastructurally, PBs consisted of non-membrane-bound deposits of branched and densely packed filaments, measuring about 7-10 nm in diameter, typical of polyglucosan bodies. APBD patients develop upper and lower neuron disease and dementia, probably secondary to the disruption of neuron and astrocyte functions.

  15. MORBIDITY AND SURVIVAL PROBABILITY IN BURN PATIENTS IN MODERN BURN CARE

    PubMed Central

    Jeschke, Marc G.; Pinto, Ruxandra; Kraft, Robert; Nathens, Avery B.; Finnerty, Celeste C.; Gamelli, Richard L.; Gibran, Nicole S.; Klein, Matthew B.; Arnoldo, Brett D.; Tompkins, Ronald G.; Herndon, David N.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Characterizing burn sizes that are associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity is critical because it would allow identifying patients who might derive the greatest benefit from individualized, experimental, or innovative therapies. Although scores have been established to predict mortality, few data addressing other outcomes exist. The objective of this study was to determine burn sizes that are associated with increased mortality and morbidity after burn. Design and Patients Burn patients were prospectively enrolled as part of the multicenter prospective cohort study, Inflammation and the Host Response to Injury Glue Grant, with the following inclusion criteria: 0–99 years of age, admission within 96 hours after injury, and >20% total body surface area burns requiring at least one surgical intervention. Setting Six major burn centers in North America. Measurements and Main Results Burn size cutoff values were determined for mortality, burn wound infection (at least two infections), sepsis (as defined by ABA sepsis criteria), pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and multiple organ failure (DENVER2 score >3) for both children (<16 years) and adults (16–65 years). Five-hundred seventy-three patients were enrolled, of which 226 patients were children. Twenty-three patients were older than 65 years and were excluded from the cutoff analysis. In children, the cutoff burn size for mortality, sepsis, infection, and multiple organ failure was approximately 60% total body surface area burned. In adults, the cutoff for these outcomes was lower, at approximately 40% total body surface area burned. Conclusions In the modern burn care setting, adults with over 40% total body surface area burned and children with over 60% total body surface area burned are at high risk for morbidity and mortality, even in highly specialized centers. PMID:25559438

  16. Oil droplets do not affect assimilation and survival probability of first feeding larvae of North-East Arctic cod.

    PubMed

    Nordtug, Trond; Olsen, Anders Johny; Altin, Dag; Overrein, Ingrid; Storøy, Werner; Hansen, Bjørn Henrik; De Laender, Frederik

    2011-12-15

    Oil exploration and production in the Atlantic moves northwards towards spawning and nursery areas of fish species that sustain some of the world's largest fisheries. Models are therefore needed that can simulate the effects of accidental oil spills on early life stages of these fish. In this study, we combined an individual based model and a microcosm approach to infer effects of the water soluble fraction (WSF) and of an oil dispersion (WSF and droplets) on two key endpoints of North East Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) larvae: food assimilation rate and survival probability. Both exposure types (WSF and dispersion) decreased assimilation rate (control: 0.4 d(-1)) and survival probability (control: 0.96) in a concentration-dependent fashion, with EC(50)s of about 2 (feeding) and 40 μg/L ∑PAH in the WSF (survival probability). No consistent differences were found between the ECs from the two exposure types indicating no additional oil droplet effects in the oil dispersion. During post exposure, effects on the two endpoints disappeared, which was confirmed by an image analyses we performed of gut content fluorescence. Our results also show that the larvae model fitted the experimental data from the two exposure types equally well, indicating that the presence of oil droplets did not affect model performance. More complex models that explicitly consider possible mechanisms of oil droplet toxicity - in addition to the toxicity of the WSF - on the two examined endpoints during a 17 day time frame do therefore not have a higher accuracy than simpler models that neglect oil droplet toxicity.

  17. Sox9 modulates cell survival and adipogenic differentiation of multipotent adult rat mesenchymal stem cells.

    PubMed

    Stöckl, Sabine; Bauer, Richard J; Bosserhoff, Anja K; Göttl, Claudia; Grifka, Joachim; Grässel, Susanne

    2013-07-01

    Sox9 is a key transcription factor in early chondrogenesis with distinct roles in differentiation processes and during embryonic development. Here, we report that Sox9 modulates cell survival and contributes to the commitment of mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) to adipogenic or osteogenic differentiation lineages. We found that the Sox9 activity level affects the expression of the key transcription factor in adipogenic differentiation, C/EBPβ, and that cyclin D1 mediates the expression of the osteogenic marker osteocalcin in undifferentiated adult bone-marrow-derived rat MSC. Introducing a stable Sox9 knockdown into undifferentiated rat MSC resulted in a marked decrease in proliferation rate and an increase in apoptotic activity. This was linked to a profound upregulation of p21 and cyclin D1 gene and protein expression accompanied by an induction of caspase 3/7 activity and an inhibition of Bcl-2. We observed that Sox9 silencing provoked a delayed S-phase progression and an increased nuclear localization of p21. The protein stability of cyclin D1 was induced in the absence of Sox9 presumably as a function of altered p38 signalling. In addition, the major transcription factor for adipogenic differentiation, C/EBPβ, was repressed after silencing Sox9. The nearly complete absence of C/EBPβ protein as a result of increased destabilization of the C/EBPβ mRNA and the impact on osteocalcin gene expression and protein synthesis, suggests that a delicate balance of Sox9 level is not only imperative for proper chondrogenic differentiation of progenitor cells, but also affects the adipogenic and probably osteogenic differentiation pathways of MSC. Our results identified Sox9 as an important link between differentiation, proliferation and apoptosis in undifferentiated adult rat mesenchymal stem cells, emphasizing the importance of the delicate balance of a precisely regulated Sox9 activity in MSC not only for proper skeletal development during embryogenesis but probably also

  18. More than words: Adults learn probabilities over categories and relationships between them

    PubMed Central

    Hudson Kam, Carla L.

    2009-01-01

    This study examines whether human learners can acquire statistics over abstract categories and their relationships to each other. Adult learners were exposed to miniature artificial languages containing variation in the ordering of the Subject, Object, and Verb constituents. Different orders (e.g. SOV, VSO) occurred in the input with different frequencies, but the occurrence of one order versus another was not predictable. Importantly, the language was constructed such that participants could only match the overall input probabilities if they were tracking statistics over abstract categories, not over individual words. At test, participants reproduced the probabilities present in the input with a high degree of accuracy. Closer examination revealed that learner’s were matching the probabilities associated with individual verbs rather than the category as a whole. However, individual nouns had no impact on word orders produced. Thus, participants learned the probabilities of a particular ordering of the abstract grammatical categories Subject and Object associated with each verb. Results suggest that statistical learning mechanisms are capable of tracking relationships between abstract linguistic categories in addition to individual items. PMID:20161375

  19. A method for estimating fall adult sex ratios from production and survival data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wight, H.M.; Heath, R.G.; Geis, A.D.

    1965-01-01

    This paper presents a method of utilizing data relating to the production and survival of a bird population to estimate a basic fall adult sex ratio. This basic adult sex ratio is an average value derived from average production and survival rates. It is an estimate of the average sex ratio about which the fall adult ratios will fluctuate according to annual variations in production and survival. The basic fall adult sex ratio has been calculated as an asymptotic value which is the limit of an infinite series wherein average population characteristics are used as constants. Graphs are provided that allow the determination of basic sex ratios from production and survival data of a population. Where the respective asymptote has been determined, it may be possible to estimate various production and survival rates by use of variations of the formula for estimating the asymptote.

  20. Postrelease movements and survival of adult and young black-footed ferrets

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Biggins, Dean E.; Godbey, Jerry L.; Livieri, Travis M.; Matchett, Marc R.; Bibles, Brent D.

    2006-01-01

    A successful captive breeding program for highly endangered black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes) has resulted in surplus animals that have been released at multiple sites since 1991. Because reproductive output of captive ferrets declines after several years, many adult ferrets must be removed from captive breeding facilities annually to keep total production high. Adults are routinely released, with young-of-the-year, on prairie dog (Cynomys spp.) colonies. We evaluated postrelease movements and survival rates for 94 radio-tagged young and adult ferrets. Radio-tagged adult ferrets made longer movements than young ferrets during the night of release and had significantly lower survival rates for the first 14 days. Coyotes (Canis latrans) caused the largest number of ferret losses. A larger data set of 623 ferrets represented adults and young that were individually marked with passive integrated transponders but were not radio tagged. Minimum survival rates, calculated primarily from ferrets detected during spotlight searches and identified with tag readers, again were significantly lower for adults than for young ferrets at 30 days postrelease (10.1 percent and 45.5 percent survival, respectively) and at 150 days postrelease (5.7 percent and 25.9 percent). Assessment of known survival time by using linear modeling demonstrated a significant interaction between age and sex, with greater disparity between adults and kits for females than for males. Postrelease survival of adult ferrets might be increased if animals were given earlier and longer exposure to the quasinatural environments of preconditioning pens. 

  1. SynCAM 1 improves survival of adult-born neurons by accelerating synapse maturation.

    PubMed

    Doengi, Michael; Krupp, Alexander J; Körber, Nils; Stein, Valentin

    2016-03-01

    The survival of adult-born dentate gyrus granule cells critically depends on their synaptic integration into the existing neuronal network. Excitatory inputs are thought to increase the survival rate of adult born neurons. Therefore, whether enhancing the stability of newly formed excitatory synapses by overexpressing the synaptic cell adhesion molecule SynCAM 1 improves the survival of adult-born neurons was tested. Here it is shown that overexpression of SynCAM 1 improves survival of adult-born neurons, but has no effect on the proliferation rate of precursor cells. As expected, overexpression of SynCAM 1 increased the synapse density in adult-born granule neurons. While adult-born granule neurons have very few functional synapses 15 days after birth, it was found that at this age adult-born neurons in SynCAM 1 overexpressing mice exhibited around three times more excitatory synapses, which were stronger than synapses of adult-born neurons of control littermates. In summary, the data indicated that additional SynCAM 1 accelerated synapse maturation, which improved the stability of newly formed synapses and in turn increased the likelihood of survival of adult-born neurons.

  2. Geographic Variation in Adult Survival and Reproductive Tactics of the Mosquito Aedes albopictus

    PubMed Central

    LEISNHAM, P. T.; SALA, L. M.; JULIANO, S. A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate differences across latitude can result in seasonal constraints and selection on life history characters. Since Aedes albopictus (Skuse) invaded North America in the mid-1980s, it has spread across a range of ≈14° latitude and populations in the north experience complete adult mortality due to cold winter temperatures that are absent in the south. Life table experiments were conducted to test for differences in the adult survival and reproductive schedules of Ae. albopictus females from two populations from the northern (Bloomington, IN [BL] and Manassas, VA [VA]; ≈39° N) and southern (Tampa, FL and Fort Myers, FL; ≈27–28° N) extremes of the species distribution in North America. Regardless of population origin, age-specific hazard rate increased with reproductive output and decreased with number of bloodmeals. Larger females took fewer bloodmeals, and they had greater hazard rates than did smaller females. There were no consistent differences between northern versus southern populations in resource allocation between reproduction and maintenance, reproduction over time, and reproductive investment among offspring, suggesting that latitudinal variation in climate is probably not a main selective factor impinging on adult mortality and reproductive schedules. One possible effect of climate on geographic differences in life history was detected. BL had lower survivorship, lower lifetime reproductive output, and lower adult reproductive rate than did all other populations. This result may be an indirect result of lower egg survivorship due to the severity of winter in BL compared with other populations, including VA at approximately the same latitude. Such a scenario may make the BL population more prone to extinction, irregularly recolonized from more favorable sites, and thus more susceptible to founder effects, genetic drift, and inbreeding, resulting in lower mean values of fitness-related traits. PMID:18402136

  3. Survival improvements in adolescents and young adults after myeloablative allogeneic transplantation for acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Wood, William A; Lee, Stephanie J; Brazauskas, Ruta; Wang, Zhiwei; Aljurf, Mahmoud D; Ballen, Karen K; Buchbinder, David K; Dehn, Jason; Freytes, Cesar O; Lazarus, Hillard M; Lemaistre, Charles F; Mehta, Paulette; Szwajcer, David; Joffe, Steven; Majhail, Navneet S

    2014-06-01

    Adolescents and young adults (AYAs, ages 15 to 40 years) with cancer have not experienced survival improvements to the same extent as younger and older patients. We compared changes in survival after myeloablative allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) among children (n = 981), AYAs (n = 1218), and older adults (n = 469) who underwent transplantation over 3 time periods: 1990 to 1995, 1996 to 2001, and 2002 to 2007. Five-year survival varied inversely with age group. Survival improved over time in AYAs and paralleled that seen in children; however, overall survival did not change over time for older adults. Survival improvements were primarily related to lower rates of early treatment-related mortality in the most recent era. For all cohorts, relapse rates did not change over time. A subset of 222 AYAs between the ages of 15 and 25 at 46 pediatric or 49 adult centers were also analyzed to describe differences by center type. In this subgroup, there were differences in transplantation practices among pediatric and adult centers, although HCT outcomes did not differ by center type. Survival for AYAs undergoing myeloablative allogeneic HCT for ALL improved at a similar rate as survival for children.

  4. Inference for the effect of treatment on survival probability in randomized trials with noncompliance and administrative censoring.

    PubMed

    Nie, Hui; Cheng, Jing; Small, Dylan S

    2011-12-01

    In many clinical studies with a survival outcome, administrative censoring occurs when follow-up ends at a prespecified date and many subjects are still alive. An additional complication in some trials is that there is noncompliance with the assigned treatment. For this setting, we study the estimation of the causal effect of treatment on survival probability up to a given time point among those subjects who would comply with the assignment to both treatment and control. We first discuss the standard instrumental variable (IV) method for survival outcomes and parametric maximum likelihood methods, and then develop an efficient plug-in nonparametric empirical maximum likelihood estimation (PNEMLE) approach. The PNEMLE method does not make any assumptions on outcome distributions, and makes use of the mixture structure in the data to gain efficiency over the standard IV method. Theoretical results of the PNEMLE are derived and the method is illustrated by an analysis of data from a breast cancer screening trial. From our limited mortality analysis with administrative censoring times 10 years into the follow-up, we find a significant benefit of screening is present after 4 years (at the 5% level) and this persists at 10 years follow-up.

  5. Comparison of survival of adolescents and young adults with hematologic malignancies in Osaka, Japan.

    PubMed

    Nakata-Yamada, Kayo; Inoue, Masami; Ioka, Akiko; Ito, Yuri; Tabuchi, Takahiro; Miyashiro, Isao; Masaie, Hiroaki; Ishikawa, Jun; Hino, Masayuki; Tsukuma, Hideaki

    2016-01-01

    The survival gap between adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with hematological malignancies persists in many countries. To determine to what extent it does in Japan, we investigated survival and treatment regimens in 211 Japanese AYAs (15-29 years) in the Osaka Cancer Registry diagnosed during 2001-2005 with hematological malignancies, and compared adolescents (15-19 years) with young adults (20-29 years). AYAs with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) had a poor 5-year survival (44%), particularly young adults (29% vs. 64% in adolescents, p = 0.01). Additional investigation for patients with ALL revealed that only 19% of young adults were treated with pediatric treatment regimens compared with 45% of adolescents (p = 0.05). Our data indicate that we need to focus on young adults with ALL and to consider establishing appropriate cancer care system and guidelines for them in Japan.

  6. Predictors of survival among older adults with ependymoma.

    PubMed

    Amirian, E Susan; Armstrong, Terri S; Gilbert, Mark R; Scheurer, Michael E

    2012-03-01

    The biological process of aging encompasses a multitude of complex physiological and lifestyle changes that may alter the way typical prognostic factors affect survival among older ependymoma patients. Because very little is known about the clinical significance of traditional prognostic factors and the magnitude of their effects among older individuals, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the associations between survival and demographic and tumor characteristics among patients with ependymoma who were 60 years of age or older. Using the 1973-2007 dataset from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program, we evaluated the impact of several factors on both overall and ependymoma-specific survival, utilizing multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. We identified 367 ependymoma cases who were 60 years of age or older at diagnosis and had complete data from SEER. Of these, 19 (5.2%) had anaplastic tumors; all others were low-grade tumors. Age, tumor site, extent of surgery, and tumor histology were found to be significant predictors of ependymoma prognosis. The strongest predictor of poor outcome was supratentorial tumor location (adjusted HR: 6.94, 95% CI: 3.19-15.08, compared to spinal cord tumors). Our study suggests that tumor location, tumor histology, and surgical margin may be key predictors of survival among older ependymoma patients. We believe our study is one of the first to assess the prognostic value of these factors for ependymoma survival exclusively in an older patient population.

  7. Long-Term Survival in Adult Neuroblastoma with Multiple Recurrences

    PubMed Central

    Vénat-Bouvet, L.; Le Brun-Ly, V.; Martin, J.; Gasnier, O.; Falkowsky, S.; Tubiana-Mathieu, N.

    2010-01-01

    Neuroblastoma (NB) rarely occurs in adults, and less than 10% of the cases occur in patients older than 10 years. Currently, there are no standard treatment guidelines for adult NB patients. We report the case of a young man suffering from NB in adulthood with multiple recurrences. Treatment included multiple resections, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. This patient remains free of clinical disease more than 7 years after diagnosis. PMID:20740158

  8. High expression of costimulatory molecules correlates with low relapse-free survival probability in acute myeloid leukemia (AML).

    PubMed

    Graf, M; Reif, S; Hecht, K; Pelka-Fleischer, R; Kroell, T; Pfister, K; Schmetzer, H

    2005-05-01

    Costimulatory molecules such as lymphocyte function-associated antigen (LFA)-1 (CD11a), LFA-3 (CD58), intercellular adhesion molecule (ICAM)-1 (CD54), neuronal cell adhesion molecule (NCAM) (CD56), B7-1 (CD80), or B7-2 (CD86) are important regulatory elements in healthy immunological cascades, but their role in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) has only been rarely investigated. We studied their expression on mononuclear bone marrow (BM) cells from 105 patients with AML at initial diagnosis and evaluated their prognostic significance. Fluorescence-activated cell sorter (FACS) analyses were performed using antibodies directly conjugated with fluorescein. A BM sample was considered positive if more than 20% of the cells in the blast containing gate expressed the respective marker. The surface expression of CD11a (27 of 29 cases positive with an average of 71% positive blasts; 27(+)/29, 71%), CD54 (23(+)/33, 37%), CD56 (24(+)/93, 20%), CD58 (29(+)/29, 95%), CD80 (13(+)/28, 30%), and CD86 (19(+)/29, 39%) was measured. The expression of these markers in different French-American-British (FAB) classification types (M0-M5) was heterogeneous, except for CD56, which showed a higher proportion of positive cells in monocytic subtypes of AML. In addition, cases with a "poor risk" karyotype as well as patients succumbing to "early death" after double induction therapy according to the AML Cooperative Group (CG) protocol were characterized by a high expression of CD56. Relapse-free survival analyses demonstrated that patients with more than 8% CD56(+) cells in the BM relapsed significantly sooner. CD54 was preferentially expressed in AML M4(eo) and in addition in "favorable" cytogenetic risk groups and in cases that had responded to AML-CG therapy. Only very high proportions (>60%) of CD54(+) cells were associated with a lower probability for relapse-free survival. CD80 and CD86 expressions were similar in all FAB types. Patients who had responded to AML-CG therapy showed higher CD80

  9. Time for College: The Adult Student's Guide to Survival and Success! Second Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Siebert, Al; Gilpin, Bernadine

    This guide is designed to help adult students survive and succeed in their college studies. Its 15 chapters contain practical advice on the following topics: obtaining the help available to adult students, confronting and overcoming fears and concerns, enrolling in a program and financing its costs, getting acquainted with the campus during…

  10. Optimizing Survival Outcomes For Adult Patients With Nontraumatic Cardiac Arrest.

    PubMed

    Jung, Julianna

    2016-10-01

    Patient survival after cardiac arrest can be improved significantly with prompt and effective resuscitative care. This systematic review analyzes the basic life support factors that improve survival outcome, including chest compression technique and rapid defibrillation of shockable rhythms. For patients who are successfully resuscitated, comprehensive postresuscitation care is essential. Targeted temperature management is recommended for all patients who remain comatose, in addition to careful monitoring of oxygenation, hemodynamics, and cardiac rhythm. Management of cardiac arrest in circumstances such as pregnancy, pulmonary embolism, opioid overdose and other toxicologic causes, hypothermia, and coronary ischemia are also reviewed.

  11. Effects of yearling, juvenile and adult survival on reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) demography

    PubMed Central

    van der Ouderaa, Isabelle B.C.; Tibiriçá, Yara

    2016-01-01

    Background The trade in manta ray gill plates has considerably increased over the last two decades. The resulting increases in ray mortality, in addition to mortality caused by by-catch, has caused many ray populations to decrease in size. The aim of this study was to ascertain how yearling and juvenile growth and survival, and adult survival and reproduction affect reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) population change, to increase our understanding of manta ray demography and thereby improve conservation research and measures for these fish. Methods We developed a population projection model for reef manta rays, and used published life history data on yearling and juvenile growth and adult reproduction to parameterise the model. Because little is known about reef manta ray yearling and juvenile survival, we conducted our analyses using a range of plausible survival rate values for yearlings, juveniles and adults. Results The model accurately captured observed variation in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time in different reef manta ray populations. Our demographic analyses revealed a range of population consequences in response to variation in demographic rates. For example, an increase in yearling or adult survival rates always elicited greater responses in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time than the same increase in juvenile survival rate. The population growth rate increased linearly, but lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time increased at an accelerating rate with increasing yearling or adult survival rates. Hence, even a small increase in survival rate could increase lifetime reproductive success by one pup, and cohort generation time by several years. Elasticity analyses revealed that, depending on survival rate values of all life stages, the population growth rate is either most sensitive to changes in the rate with which juveniles survive but stay

  12. Precambrian animal life: probable developmental and adult cnidarian forms from Southwest China

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Jun-Yuan; Oliveri, Paola; Gao, Feng; Dornbos, Stephen Q.; Li, Chia-Wei; Bottjer, David J.; Davidson, Eric H.

    2002-01-01

    The evolutionary divergence of cnidarian and bilaterian lineages from their remote metazoan ancestor occurred at an unknown depth in time before the Cambrian, since crown group representatives of each are found in Lower Cambrian fossil assemblages. We report here a variety of putative embryonic, larval, and adult microfossils deriving from Precambrian phosphorite deposits of Southwest China, which may predate the Cambrian radiation by 25-45 million years. These are most probably of cnidarian affinity. Large numbers of fossilized early planula-like larvae were observed under the microscope in sections. Though several forms are represented, the majority display remarkable conformity, which is inconsistent with the alternative that they are artifactual mineral inclusions. Some of these fossils are preserved in such high resolution that individual cells can be discerned. We confirm in detail an earlier report of the presence in the same deposits of tabulates, an extinct crown group anthozoan form. Other sections reveal structures that most closely resemble sections of basal modern corals. A large number of fossils similar to modern hydrozoan gastrulae were also observed. These again displayed great morphological consistency. Though only a single example is available, a microscopic animal remarkably similar to a modern adult hydrozoan is also presented. Taken together, the new observations reported in this paper indicate the existence of a diverse and already differentiated cnidarian fauna, long before the Cambrian evolutionary event. It follows that at least stem group bilaterians must also have been present at this time.

  13. Violence victimization after HIV infection in a US probability sample of adult patients in primary care.

    PubMed Central

    Zierler, S; Cunningham, W E; Andersen, R; Shapiro, M F; Nakazono, T; Morton, S; Crystal, S; Stein, M; Turner, B; St Clair, P; Bozzette, S A

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This study estimated the proportion of HIV-infected adults who have been assaulted by a partner or someone important to them since their HIV diagnosis and the extent to which they reported HIV-seropositive status as a cause of the violence. METHODS: Study participants were from a nationally representative probability sample of 2864 HIV-infected adults who were receiving medical care and were enrolled in the HIV Costs and Service Utilization Study. All interviews (91% in person, 9% by telephone) were conducted with computer-assisted personal interviewing instruments. Interviews began in January 1996 and ended 15 months later. RESULTS: Overall, 20.5% of the women, 11.5% of the men who reported having sex with men, and 7.5% of the heterosexual men reported physical harm since diagnosis, of whom nearly half reported HIV-seropositive status as a cause of violent episodes. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-related care is an appropriate setting for routine assessment of violence. Programs to cross-train staff in antiviolence agencies and HIV care facilities need to be developed for men and women with HIV infection. PMID:10667181

  14. Precambrian animal life: probable developmental and adult cnidarian forms from Southwest China.

    PubMed

    Chen, Jun-Yuan; Oliveri, Paola; Gao, Feng; Dornbos, Stephen Q; Li, Chia-Wei; Bottjer, David J; Davidson, Eric H

    2002-08-01

    The evolutionary divergence of cnidarian and bilaterian lineages from their remote metazoan ancestor occurred at an unknown depth in time before the Cambrian, since crown group representatives of each are found in Lower Cambrian fossil assemblages. We report here a variety of putative embryonic, larval, and adult microfossils deriving from Precambrian phosphorite deposits of Southwest China, which may predate the Cambrian radiation by 25-45 million years. These are most probably of cnidarian affinity. Large numbers of fossilized early planula-like larvae were observed under the microscope in sections. Though several forms are represented, the majority display remarkable conformity, which is inconsistent with the alternative that they are artifactual mineral inclusions. Some of these fossils are preserved in such high resolution that individual cells can be discerned. We confirm in detail an earlier report of the presence in the same deposits of tabulates, an extinct crown group anthozoan form. Other sections reveal structures that most closely resemble sections of basal modern corals. A large number of fossils similar to modern hydrozoan gastrulae were also observed. These again displayed great morphological consistency. Though only a single example is available, a microscopic animal remarkably similar to a modern adult hydrozoan is also presented. Taken together, the new observations reported in this paper indicate the existence of a diverse and already differentiated cnidarian fauna, long before the Cambrian evolutionary event. It follows that at least stem group bilaterians must also have been present at this time.

  15. Survival Analysis and Actuarial Parameters of Sternechus subsignatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Adults.

    PubMed

    Guillermina Socías, María; Van Nieuwenhove, Guido; Murúa, María Gabriela; Willink, Eduardo; Liljesthröm, Gerardo Gustavo

    2016-04-01

    The soybean stalk weevil, Sternechus subsignatus Boheman 1836 (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is a very serious soybean pest in the Neotropical region. Both adults and larvae feed on soybean, causing significant yield losses. Adult survival was evaluated during three soybean growing seasons under controlled environmental conditions. A survival analysis was performed using a parametric survival fit approach in order to generate survival curves and obtain information that could help optimize integrated management strategies for this weevil pest. Sex of the weevils, crop season, fortnight in which weevils emerged, and their interaction were studied regarding their effect on adult survival. The results showed that females lived longer than males, but both genders were actually long-lived, reaching 224 and 176 d, respectively. Mean lifetime (l50) was 121.88±4.56 d for females and 89.58±2.72 d for males. Although variations were observed in adult longevities among emergence fortnights and soybean seasons, only in December and January fortnights of the 2007–2008 season and December fortnights of 2009–2010 did the statistically longest and shortest longevities occur, respectively. Survivorship data (lx) of adult females and males were fitted to the Weibull frequency distribution model. The survival curve was type I for both sexes, which indicated that mortality corresponded mostly to old individuals.

  16. How Long Do the Dead Survive on the Road? Carcass Persistence Probability and Implications for Road-Kill Monitoring Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Sara M.; Carvalho, Filipe; Mira, António

    2011-01-01

    Background Road mortality is probably the best-known and visible impact of roads upon wildlife. Although several factors influence road-kill counts, carcass persistence time is considered the most important determinant underlying underestimates of road mortality. The present study aims to describe and model carcass persistence variability on the road for different taxonomic groups under different environmental conditions throughout the year; and also to assess the effect of sampling frequency on the relative variation in road-kill estimates registered within a survey. Methodology/Principal Findings Daily surveys of road-killed vertebrates were conducted over one year along four road sections with different traffic volumes. Survival analysis was then used to i) describe carcass persistence timings for overall and for specific animal groups; ii) assess optimal sampling designs according to research objectives; and iii) model the influence of road, animal and weather factors on carcass persistence probabilities. Most animal carcasses persisted on the road for the first day only, with some groups disappearing at very high rates. The advisable periodicity of road monitoring that minimizes bias in road mortality estimates is daily monitoring for bats (in the morning) and lizards (in the afternoon), daily monitoring for toads, small birds, small mammals, snakes, salamanders, and lagomorphs; 1 day-interval (alternate days) for large birds, birds of prey, hedgehogs, and freshwater turtles; and 2 day-interval for carnivores. Multiple factors influenced the persistence probabilities of vertebrate carcasses on the road. Overall, the persistence was much lower for small animals, on roads with lower traffic volumes, for carcasses located on road lanes, and during humid conditions and high temperatures during the wet season and dry seasons, respectively. Conclusion/Significance The guidance given here on monitoring frequencies is particularly relevant to provide conservation and

  17. Adaptive memory: Survival processing increases both true and false memory in adults and children.

    PubMed

    Otgaar, Henry; Smeets, Tom

    2010-07-01

    Research has shown that processing information in a survival context can enhance the information's memorability. The current study examined whether survival processing can also decrease the susceptibility to false memories and whether the survival advantage can be found in children. In Experiment 1, adults rated semantically related words in a survival, moving, or pleasantness scenario. Even though the survival advantage was demonstrated for true recall, there also was an unexpected increase in false memories in the survival condition. Similarly, younger and older children in Experiment 2 displayed superior true recall but also higher rates of false memories in a survival condition. Experiment 3 showed that in adults false memories were also more likely to occur in the survival condition when categorized lists instead of Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM)-like word lists were used. In all three experiments, no survival recall advantage was found when net accuracy scores that take the total output into account were used. These findings question whether survival processing is an adaptive memory strategy per se, as such processing not only enriches true recall but simultaneously amplifies the vulnerability to false memories.

  18. PERSONAL AND FAMILY SURVIVAL, CIVIL DEFENSE ADULT EDUCATION.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Office of Education (DHEW), Washington, DC.

    TEN BASIC LESSON PLANS THAT CAN BE ADAPTED TO SUIT THE NEEDS OF THE STUDENTS AND EXPANDED TO FIT LOCAL SITUATIONS SERVE AS A GUIDE TO CIVIL DEFENSE ADULT EDUCATION TEACHERS AND REPRESENT THE STATE OF CIVIL DEFENSE AS OF PUBLICATION DATE. THE LESSONS ARE DESIGNED TO BE USED WITH SLIDES OR FILMSTRIPS, A MINIATURE ILLUSTRATION OF WHICH APPEARS AT THE…

  19. Personal and Family Survival. Civil Defense Adult Education; Teacher's Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Office of Civil Defense (DOD), Washington, DC.

    A manual intended as an instructor's aid in presenting a Civil Defense Adult Education Course is presented. It contains 10 lesson plans: Course Introduction, Modern Weapons and Radioactive Fallout (Effects), Modern Weapons and Radioactive Fallout (Protection), National Civil Defense Program, National Shelter Program (Community Shelters), National…

  20. Equal nonbreeding period survival in adults and juveniles of a long-distant migrant bird

    PubMed Central

    Grüebler, Martin U; Korner-Nievergelt, Fränzi; Naef-Daenzer, Beat

    2014-01-01

    In migrant birds, survival estimates for the different life-history stages between fledging and first breeding are scarce. First-year survival is shown to be strongly reduced compared with annual survival of adult birds. However, it remains unclear whether the main bottleneck in juvenile long-distant migrants occurs in the postfledging period within the breeding ranges or en route. Quantifying survival rates during different life-history stages and during different periods of the migration cycle is crucial to understand forces driving the evolution of optimal life histories in migrant birds. Here, we estimate survival rates of adult and juvenile barn swallows (Hirundo rusticaL.) in the breeding and nonbreeding areas using a population model integrating survival estimates in the breeding ranges based on a large radio-telemetry data set and published estimates of demographic parameters from large-scale population-monitoring projects across Switzerland. Input parameters included the country-wide population trend, annual productivity estimates of the double-brooded species, and year-to-year survival corrected for breeding dispersal. Juvenile survival in the 3-week postfledging period was low (S = 0.32; SE = 0.05), whereas in the rest of the annual cycle survival estimates of adults and juveniles were similarly high (S > 0.957). Thus, the postfledging period was the main survival bottleneck, revealing the striking result that nonbreeding period mortality (including migration) is not higher for juveniles than for adult birds. Therefore, focusing future research on sources of variation in postfledging mortality can provide new insights into determinants of population dynamics and life-history evolution of migrant birds. PMID:24683458

  1. Surviving Parents' Influence on Adult Children's Depressive Symptoms Following the Death of a First Parent.

    PubMed

    Stokes, Jeffrey E

    2016-10-01

    Parents and children are linked across the life course, and they share common experiences. This article focuses on the bereavement experience of adult children's loss of a first parent during adulthood and examines the downward influence of emotional closeness with a surviving parent on adult children's depressive symptoms following loss. Analyses are based on adult children who experienced the death of a first parent (N = 227), drawn from the Longitudinal Study of Generations, a study of three-and four-generation families from Southern California. Multilevel lagged dependent variable models indicate that an emotionally close relationship with a surviving parent is related with fewer post-bereavement depressive symptoms when a mother survives a father, but not vice versa. This analysis extends the theory of linked lives and highlights the mutual influence parents and children exert, as well as the complex role of gender in shaping family relationships.

  2. Exact calculations of survival probability for diffusion on growing lines, disks, and spheres: The role of dimension.

    PubMed

    Simpson, Matthew J; Baker, Ruth E

    2015-09-07

    Unlike standard applications of transport theory, the transport of molecules and cells during embryonic development often takes place within growing multidimensional tissues. In this work, we consider a model of diffusion on uniformly growing lines, disks, and spheres. An exact solution of the partial differential equation governing the diffusion of a population of individuals on the growing domain is derived. Using this solution, we study the survival probability, S(t). For the standard non-growing case with an absorbing boundary, we observe that S(t) decays to zero in the long time limit. In contrast, when the domain grows linearly or exponentially with time, we show that S(t) decays to a constant, positive value, indicating that a proportion of the diffusing substance remains on the growing domain indefinitely. Comparing S(t) for diffusion on lines, disks, and spheres indicates that there are minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of zero growth and minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of fast growth. In contrast, for intermediate growth rates, we observe modest differences in S(t) between different geometries. These differences can be quantified by evaluating the exact expressions derived and presented here.

  3. Does Glucagon Improve Survival in a Porcine (Sus Scrofa) of Adult Asphyxial Cardiac Arrest in Addition to Standard Epinephrine Therapy?

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-01-17

    UDIIILI: oa. I..UN I ItA!.. I NUMDI:It Does Glucagon improve survival in a porcine (Sus Scrofa ) of adult asphyxial cardiac arrest in addition to...EXPIRATION DATE: 25 Mar 13 PROTOCOL TITLE: Does Glucagon Improve Survival in a Porcine (Sus scrofa ) Model of Adult Asphyxial Cardiac Arrest in Addition...Additions: Deletions: 2 Protocol No: A-2007-03 Protocol Title: Does Glucagon Improve Survival in a Porcine (Sus scrofa ) Model of Adult Asphyxial

  4. A childhood chemotherapy protocol improves overall survival among adults with T-lymphoblastic lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Zhong-jun; Chen, Xiao-qin; Geng, Qi-rong; Wang, Wei-da; Wang, Liang; Lu, Yue

    2016-01-01

    A broadly accepted standard treatment for adult T-lymphoblastic lymphoma (T-LBL) has not yet been defined. To address that issue, we retrospectively compared three chemotherapy regimens used to treat 110 adult patients with newly diagnosed T-LBL. These included two adult regimens (ECOG2993 and hyper-CVAD) and a childhood regimen (BFM-90). These intensive drug regimens are mainly used to treat childhood and adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia. They included induction, consolidation, and maintenance chemotherapy protocols and were administered over the course of 2 years. Seventy-five patients (80%) achieved a complete remission (CR). Within a median follow-up time of 31 months (range: 5–152 months), the 5-year overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) rates were 47.7% (95% CI, 35.0–69.8%) and 45.7% (95% CI, 27.6–56.6%), respectively. Shorter survival was associated with age > 40 years, poor ECOG PS and bone marrow involvement. Elevated lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) level, Ann Arbor stage and International Prognostic Index (IPI) score had no prognostic value. The childhood chemotherapy regimen improved CR and the overall survival rate more than the adult regimen in patients aged < 40 years. PMID:27150061

  5. Population dynamics in a long-lived seabird: I. Impact of breeding activity on survival and breeding probability in unbanded king penguins.

    PubMed

    Le Bohec, Céline; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Grémillet, David; Pradel, Roger; Béchet, Arnaud; Gendner, Jean-Paul; Le Maho, Yvon

    2007-11-01

    Understanding the trade-off between current reproductive effort, future survival and future breeding attempts is crucial for demographic analyses and life history studies. We investigated this trade-off in a population of king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) marked individually with transponders using multistate capture-recapture models. This colonial seabird species has a low annual proportion of non-breeders (13%), despite a breeding cycle which lasts over 1 year. To draw inferences about the consequences of non-breeding, we tested for an effect of reproductive activity on survival and on the probability of subsequent breeding. We found that birds non-breeding in year t show the same survival rate as breeders (two-states analysis: breeding and non-breeding). However, breeders had a lower probability of breeding again the following year. This negative phenotypic correlation suggests the existence of reproductive costs affecting future breeding probability, but it might also be strengthened by late arrival for courtship in year t. A three-state analysis including breeding success revealed that failed breeders in year t have a lower probability to reproduce successfully in year t + 1 than non-breeders in year t, providing some evidence for the existence of reproductive costs. Moreover, successful breeders showed higher survival probability. This positive phenotypic correlation between current reproduction and subsequent survival supports the hypothesis of an heterogeneity in individual quality. Males breeding in year t had a lower probability to breed again in year t + 1 than females, suggesting higher reproductive costs for this sex. Such additional costs might be due to higher male parental investment in the final phase of chick-rearing, which also delays the arrival of males in year t + 1, and decreases their breeding probability. Our study is the first to explore the breeding biology and the demography of penguins without the disturbance of flipper-bands.

  6. Booster Sessions Enhance the Long-Term Effectiveness of Spaced Retrieval in Older Adults with Probable Alzheimer's Disease

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cherry, Katie E.; Hawley, Karri S.; Jackson, Erin M.; Boudreaux, Emily O.

    2009-01-01

    Six older adults with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) were trained to recall a name-face association using the spaced retrieval technique. In this study, we retested these persons in a 6-month follow-up program. For half of the participants, three booster sessions were administered at 6, 12, and 18 weeks after original training to promote…

  7. Spaced Retrieval Enhances Memory for a Name-Face-Occupation Association in Older Adults with Probable Alzheimer's Disease

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cherry, Katie E.; Walvoord, Ashley A. G.; Hawley, Karri S.

    2010-01-01

    The authors trained 4 older adults with probable Alzheimer's disease to recall a name-face-occupation association using the spaced retrieval technique. Six training sessions were administered over a 2-week period. On each trial, participants selected a target photograph and stated the target name and occupation at increasingly longer retention…

  8. Intra-annual patterns in adult band-tailed pigeon survival estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.; Overton, Cory T.; Howe, Kristy H.

    2015-01-01

    Implications: We present the first inter-seasonal analysis of survival probability of the Pacific coast race of band-tailed pigeons and illustrate important temporal patterns that may influence future species management including harvest strategies and disease monitoring.

  9. Effects of highly active antiretroviral therapy on the survival of HIV-infected adult patients in urban slums of Kenya.

    PubMed

    Muhula, Samuel Opondo; Peter, Memiah; Sibhatu, Biadgilign; Meshack, Ndirangu; Lennie, Kyomuhangi

    2015-01-01

    Recent improvements in access to Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) have radically reduced hospitalizations and deaths associated with HIV infection in both developed countries and sub-Saharan Africa. Not much is known about survival of patients on ART in slums. The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with mortality among adult patients on ART in resource poor, urban, sub-Saharan African setting. A prospective open cohort study was conducted with adult patients on ART at a clinic in Kibera slums, Nairobi, Kenya. The patients' enrollment to care was between March 2005 and November 2011. Descriptive statistics were computed and Kaplan-Meier (KM) methods used to estimate survival time while Cox's proportional hazards (CPH) model fitted to determine mortality predictors. A total of 2,011 adult patients were studied, 69% being female. Female gender (p=0.0016), zidovudine-based regimen patients (p<0.0001), CD4 count>351 patients (p<0.0001), WHO stage I patients (p<0.0001) and "Working" functional status patients recorded better survival probability on ART. In CPH analysis, the hazard of dying was higher in patients on Stavudine-based regimen(hazard ratio (HR)=.8; 95% CI, 1.5-2.2; p<0.0001),CD4 count<50 cells/µl (HR=1.6; 95% CI, 1.5-1.7;p<0.0001), WHO Stage IV at ART initiation (HR=1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6; p=0.016) and bedridden patients (HR=2.7; 95% CI, 1.7-4.4;p<0.0001). There was increased mortality among the males, those with advanced Immunosuppression, late WHO stage and bedridden patients. The findings further justify the need to switch patients on Stavudine-based regimen as per the WHO recommendations.

  10. Teaching Community Survival Skills to Mentally Retarded Adults: A Review and Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martin, James E.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    The article reviews research on training mentally retarded adults in the following community survival skills: travel training, money management, meal preparation, clothing and personal care, telephone skill, housekeeping, self-medication, leisure skills, social skills, and conversation. Results are said to indicate the value of behavioral…

  11. Impact of Vapor Pressure Deficit on the Performance of Bemisia tabaci: Adult, Nymphal, and Egg Survival

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The B-biotype sweetpotato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, is a serious global pest with varying population dynamics among different ecosystems. An experiment was conducted to assess the impact of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on the survival of adults, nymphs and eggs of B. tabaci. The insects were reared...

  12. Eszopiclone and fluoxetine enhance the survival of newborn neurons in the adult rat hippocampus.

    PubMed

    Su, Xiaowei W; Li, Xiao-Yuan; Banasr, Mounira; Duman, Ronald S

    2009-11-01

    Clinical research has shown that co-administration of eszopiclone, a sedative-hypnotic sleeping agent, and fluoxetine, a serotonin uptake inhibitor, exerts an additive antidepressant action in treating patients with both depression and insomnia. Preclinical studies demonstrate that the behavioural actions of antidepressants are linked to neurogenesis in the adult hippocampus. To test the hypothesis that the additive effects of eszopiclone and fluoxetine could act via such a mechanism, the influence of combined administration of these agents on the proliferation and survival of bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU)-labelled newborn cells in the hippocampus of adult rats was determined. Chronic eszopiclone+fluoxetine co-administration significantly increased the survival, but not proliferation, of newborn neurons in dorsal hippocampus by approximately 50%, an effect greater than either drug alone. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that eszopiclone enhances the antidepressant action of fluoxetine, in part via a novel mechanism that increases the survival of newborn neurons.

  13. Survival of glucose phosphate isomerase null somatic cells and germ cells in adult mouse chimaeras.

    PubMed

    Keighren, Margaret A; Flockhart, Jean H; West, John D

    2016-05-15

    The mouse Gpi1 gene encodes the glycolytic enzyme glucose phosphate isomerase. Homozygous Gpi1(-/-) null mouse embryos die but a previous study showed that some homozygous Gpi1(-/-) null cells survived when combined with wild-type cells in fetal chimaeras. One adult female Gpi1(-/-)↔Gpi1(c/c) chimaera with functional Gpi1(-/-) null oocytes was also identified in a preliminary study. The aims were to characterise the survival of Gpi1(-/-) null cells in adult Gpi1(-/-)↔Gpi1(c/c) chimaeras and determine if Gpi1(-/-) null germ cells are functional. Analysis of adult Gpi1(-/-)↔Gpi1(c/c) chimaeras with pigment and a reiterated transgenic lineage marker showed that low numbers of homozygous Gpi1(-/-) null cells could survive in many tissues of adult chimaeras, including oocytes. Breeding experiments confirmed that Gpi1(-/-) null oocytes in one female Gpi1(-/-)↔Gpi1(c/c) chimaera were functional and provided preliminary evidence that one male putative Gpi1(-/-)↔Gpi1(c/c) chimaera produced functional spermatozoa from homozygous Gpi1(-/-) null germ cells. Although the male chimaera was almost certainly Gpi1(-/-)↔Gpi1(c/c), this part of the study is considered preliminary because only blood was typed for GPI. Gpi1(-/-) null germ cells should survive in a chimaeric testis if they are supported by wild-type Sertoli cells. It is also feasible that spermatozoa could bypass a block at GPI, but not blocks at some later steps in glycolysis, by using fructose, rather than glucose, as the substrate for glycolysis. Although chimaera analysis proved inefficient for studying the fate of Gpi1(-/-) null germ cells, it successfully identified functional Gpi1(-/-) null oocytes and revealed that some Gpi1(-/-) null cells could survive in many adult tissues.

  14. Intentional genetic introgression influences survival of adults and subadults in a small, inbred felid population.

    PubMed

    Benson, John F; Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Onorato, David P; Johnson, Warren E; Roelke, Melody E; O'Brien, Stephen J; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K

    2011-09-01

    1. Inbreeding and low genetic diversity can cause reductions in individual fitness and increase extinction risk in animal populations. Intentional introgression, achieved by releasing genetically diverse individuals into inbred populations, has been used as a conservation tool to improve demographic performance in endangered populations. 2. By the 1980s, Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi) had been reduced to a small, inbred population that appeared to be on the brink of extinction. In 1995, female pumas from Texas (P. c. stanleyana) were released in occupied panther range as part of an intentional introgression programme to restore genetic variability and improve demographic performance of panthers. 3. We used 25 years (1981-2006) of continuous radiotelemetry and genetic data to estimate and model subadult and adult panther survival and cause-specific mortality to provide rigorous sex and age class-specific survival estimates and evaluate the effect of the introgression programme on these parameters. 4. Genetic ancestry influenced annual survival of subadults and adults after introgression, as F(1) generation admixed panthers ( = 0·98) survived better than pre-introgression type panthers ( = 0·77) and other admixed individuals ( = 0·82). Furthermore, heterozygosity was higher for admixed panthers relative to pre-introgression type panthers and positively influenced survival. 5. Our results are consistent with hybrid vigour; however, extrinsic factors such as low density of males in some areas of panther range may also have contributed to higher survival of F(1) panthers. Regardless, improved survival of F(1) subadults and adults likely contributed to the numerical increase in panthers following introgression, and our results indicate that intentional admixture, achieved here by releasing individuals from another population, appears to have been successful in improving demographic performance in this highly endangered population.

  15. Incidence and Survival of Pediatric Soft Tissue Sarcomas: Comparison between Adults and Children

    PubMed Central

    Lim, Sun Min; Yoo, Cheol Joo; Han, Jung Woo; Cho, Yong Jin; Kim, Soo Hee; Ahn, Joong Bae; Rha, Sun Young; Shin, Sang Joon; Chung, Hyun Cheol; Yang, Woo Ick; Shin, Kyoo-Ho; Rho, Jae Kyung; Kim, Hyo Song

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Pediatric-type sarcomas such as rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS), Ewing sarcoma (EWS), primitive neuroectodermal tumor (PNET), and desmoplastic small round-cell tumor (DSRCT) are rare in adults, with limited studies on their prognosis and optimal treatment strategies. We aimed to examine the outcome of children and adult patients with RMS, EWS, PNET, and DSRCT and relevant prognostic factors. Materials and Methods We retrospectively reviewed 220 pediatric-type sarcoma patients at a single institution between 1985 and 2011. Comparisons were made in order to examine differences in demographics, disease characteristics, and survival. Survival analyses were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank tests and Cox proportional hazards models. Results A total of 220 consecutive patients were identified at our institute. Median age was 15.6 years (range, 0 to 81 years) and there were 108 children (49%) and 112 adult patients (51%). According to histological classification, 106 patients (48.2%) had RMS, 60 (27.3%) had EWS, 50 (22.7%) had PNET, and 4 (1.8%) had DSRCT. With a median follow-up period of 6.6 years, the estimated median overall survival (OS) of all patients was 75 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 27.2 to 122.8 months) and median event-free survival (EFS) for all patients was 11 months (95% CI, 8.8 to 13.2 months). No significant difference in OS and EFS was observed between adults and children. In multivariate analysis, distant metastasis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.617; 95% CI, 1.022 to 2.557; p=0.040) and no debulking surgery (HR, 1.443; 95% CI, 1.104 to 1.812; p=0.012) showed independent association with worse OS. Conclusion Metastatic disease and no surgical treatment are poor prognostic factors for OS among pediatric-type sarcomas for both adults and children. PMID:25143049

  16. Factors Associated with Survival in a Contemporary Adult Sickle Cell Disease Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Elmariah, Hany; Garrett, Melanie E.; De Castro, Laura M.; Jonassaint, Jude; Ataga, Kenneth I.; Eckman, James; Ashley-Koch, Allison E.; Telen, Marilyn J.

    2014-01-01

    We examined the relationship of clinical differences among sickle cell disease (SCD) patients in order to understand the major contributors to early mortality in a contemporary cohort. Survival data were obtained for 542 adult subjects who were enrolled since 2002 at three university hospitals in the southeast United States. Subjects were followed for a median of 9.3 years. At enrollment, clinical parameters were collected, including hemoglobin (Hb) genotype, baseline laboratory values, comorbidities, and medication usage. Levels of soluble adhesion molecules were measured for a subset of 87 subjects. The relationship of clinical characteristics to survival was determined using regression analysis. Median age at enrollment was 32 years. Median survival was 61 years for all subjects. Median survival for Hb SS and Sβ0 was 58 years and for Hb SC and Sβ+ was 66 years. Elevated white blood count, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, proteinuria, frequency of pain crises, pulmonary hypertension, cerebrovascular events, seizures, stroke, sVCAM-1 and short-acting narcotics use were significantly associated with decreased survival. 42% of subjects were on hydroxyurea therapy, which was not associated with survival. SCD continues to reduce life expectancy for affected individuals, particularly those with Hb Sβ0 and SS. Not only were comorbidities individually associated with decreased survival, but an additive effect was observed, so that those with a greater number of negative endpoints had worse survival (p<0.0001). The association of higher sVCAM-1 levels with decreased survival suggests that targeted therapies to reduce endothelial damage and inflammation may also be beneficial. PMID:24478166

  17. Novel estimates of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult survival based on Wolbachia releases.

    PubMed

    Ritchie, Scott A; Montgomery, Brian L; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2013-05-01

    The size of Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito populations and adult survival rates have proven difficult to estimate because of a lack of consistent quantitative measures to equate sampling methods, such as adult trapping, to actual population size. However, such estimates are critical for devising control methods and for modeling the transmission of dengue and other infectious agents carried by this species. Here we take advantage of recent releases of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti coupled with the results of ongoing monitoring to estimate the size of adult Ae. aegypti populations around Cairns in far north Queensland, Australia. Based on the association between released adults infected with Wolbachia and data from Biogents Sentinel traps, we show that data from two locations are consistent with population estimates of approximately 5-10 females per house and daily survival rates of 0.7-0.9 for the released Wolbachia-infected females. Moreover, we estimate that networks of Biogents Sentinel traps at a density of one per 15 houses capture around 5-10% of the adult population per week, and provide a rapid estimate of the absolute population size of Ae. aegypti. These data are discussed with respect to release rates and monitoring in future Wolbachia releases and also the levels of suppression required to reduce dengue transmission.

  18. Genomic analysis of adult B-ALL identifies potential markers of shorter survival.

    PubMed

    Patel, Shiven; Mason, Clinton C; Glenn, Martha J; Paxton, Christian N; South, Sara T; Cessna, Melissa H; Asch, Julie; Cobain, Erin F; Bixby, Dale L; Smith, Lauren B; Reshmi, Shalini; Gastier-Foster, Julie M; Schiffman, Joshua D; Miles, Rodney R

    2017-05-01

    B lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL) in adults has a higher risk of relapse and lower long-term survival than pediatric B-ALL, but data regarding genetic prognostic biomarkers are much more limited for adult patients. We identified 70 adult B-ALL patients from three institutions and performed genome-wide analysis via single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays on DNA isolated from their initial diagnostic sample and, when available, relapse bone marrow specimens to identify recurring copy number alterations (CNA). As B-cell developmental genes play a crucial role in this leukemia, we assessed such for recurrent deletions in diagnostic and relapse samples. We confirmed previous findings that the most prevalent deletions of these genes occur in CDKN2A, IKZF1, and PAX5, with several others at lower frequencies. Of the 16 samples having paired diagnostic and relapse samples, 5 showed new deletions in these recurrent B-cell related genes and 8 showed abolishment. Deletion of EBF1 heralded a significant negative prognostic impact on relapse free survival in univariate and multivariate analyses. The combination of both a CDKN2A/B deletion and an IKZF1 alteration (26% of cases) also showed a trend toward predicting worse overall survival compared to having only one or neither of these deletions. These findings add to the understanding of genomic influences on this comparably understudied disease cohort that upon further validation may help identify patients who would benefit from upfront treatment intensification.

  19. Simulation Study of Estimators for the Survival Probability of a First Passage Time for a Semi-Markov Process Using Censored Data

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-09-01

    Finite state space semi-Markov process find application in many areas. Often interest centers on whether or not the process has hit a particular state before a time t. This thesis reports results of a simulation study of the small behavior for three estimators of the survival probability of a first passage time for a semi-Markov process using censored data. Keywords: Semi- Markov; Kaplan Meier estimator; Confidence interval ; Jackknife; Problem; Theses.

  20. Survival probability of an edge Majorana in a one-dimensional p-wave superconducting chain under sudden quenching of parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajak, Atanu; Dutta, Amit

    2014-04-01

    We consider the temporal evolution of a zero-energy edge Majorana of a spinless p-wave superconducting chain following a sudden change of a parameter of the Hamiltonian. Starting from one of the topological phases that has an edge Majorana, the system is suddenly driven to the other topological phase or to the (topologically) trivial phases and to the quantum critical points (QCPs) separating these phases. The survival probability of the initial edge Majorana as a function of time is studied following the quench. Interestingly when the chain is quenched to the QCP, we find a nearly perfect oscillation of the survival probability, indicating that the Majorana travels back and forth between two ends, with a time period that scales with the system size. We also generalize to the situation when there is a next-nearest-neighbor hopping in a superconducting chain and there results in a pair of edge Majorana at each end of the chain in the topological phase. We show that the frequency of oscillation of the survival probability gets doubled in this case. We also perform an instantaneous quenching of the Hamiltonian (with two Majorana modes at each end of the chain) to an another Hamiltonian which has only one Majorana mode in equilibrium; the MSP shows oscillations as a function of time with a noticeable decay in the amplitude. On the other hand for a quenching which is reverse to the previous one, the MSP decays rapidly and stays close to zero with fluctuations in amplitude.

  1. Adult survival selection in relation to multilocus heterozygosity and body size in a tropical bird species, the Zenaida dove, Zenaida aurita.

    PubMed

    Cézilly, Frank; Quinard, Aurélie; Motreuil, Sébastien; Pradel, Roger

    2016-01-01

    Both phenotypic and genetic quality can influence the survival of individuals through time, although their relative influences are rarely addressed simultaneously. Here we used capture-mark-recapture modelling to assess the influence of both multilocus heterozygosity (MLH) and body size on apparent adult survival in a tropical bird species, the Zenaida dove, Zenaida aurita, using a sample of 391 individuals genotyped at 11 microsatellites, while controlling for the effects of sex. No effect of body size on either adult survival or capture rate was found. In the best model, survival was a logit linear function of MLH, whereas detection probability was a sex-dependent logit linear function of the logarithm of field effort, increasing with time and affected by a random individual effect. Using a Bayesian approach, we found that MLH explained 1.14% of the total deviance, as expected from theory and previous studies of heterozygosity-fitness correlations, with no evidence for local effects. However, results from capture-mark-recapture modelling indicated that expected longevity varied from 4.8 years in the least heterozygous individuals (MLH = 0.37) to 10.6 years in the most heterozygous ones (MLH = 1), thus suggesting that MLH had potentially a substantial effect on survival. We discuss our results in relation to current hypotheses about the origin of heterozygosity-fitness correlations.

  2. Stress, Social Support, and Outcomes in Two Probability Samples of Homeless Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Toro, Paul A.; Tulloch, Elizabeth; Ouellette, Nicole

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated the main effects of social support measures and their stress-buffering effects in two samples of homeless adults (Ns =249 and 219) obtained in the same large county (surrounding Detroit) at different points in time over an 8-year period (1992-1994 and 2000-2002). The findings suggest that the construct of social support,…

  3. Application of Survival Analysis to Study Timing and Probability of Outcome Attainment by a Community College Student Cohort

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mourad, Roger; Hong, Ji-Hee

    2008-01-01

    This study applies competing risks survival analysis to describe outcome attainment for an entire cohort of students who first attended a Midwestern community college in the Fall Semester 2001. Outcome attainment included transfer to a four-year institution, degree/ certificate attainment from the community college under study, and transfer to a…

  4. Adult tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) survival on the polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated Housatonic River, Massachusetts, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Custer, Christine M.; Custer, T.W.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Dummer, P.M.

    2007-01-01

    Tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) were captured and banded at six sites that differed in polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination levels in the Housatonic River watershed, western Massachusetts, USA, from 2000 through 2004 to test the prediction that apparent survival rates of females in more contaminated areas were lower than those from less contaminated areas. We also tested whether plumage coloration affected over-winter survival and whether concentrations of PCBs in eggs differed between birds that did and that did not return the following year. Apparent survival rates were calculated using mark?recapture methods and compared using Akaike's Information Criterion. Model-adjusted survival rates ranged from 0.365 to 0.467 for PCB-contaminated females and between 0.404 and 0.476 for reference females. Models with either survival or capture probability modeled as functions of treatment (degree of PCB contamination), year, and age received some support. The model-averaged parameter estimate reflecting a treatment effect for high-PCB birds was negative ( = -0.046, SE() = 0.0939). Fifty-four percent of the total model weights involved models in which survival was a function of PCB treatment. Eggs were collected for contaminant analyses from a random sample of females that did and that did not return the following year. Concentrations of total PCBs were the same or higher in the eggs of females that returned compared to the eggs of those that did not return at both the highly and the moderately contaminated PCB sites. This may have resulted from higher-quality females with higher lipid reserves being more likely than lower-quality females to return the following year. Percentage lipid was positively correlated with total PCBs in eggs. Survival rates were similar among swallows with brown versus blue plumage.

  5. The probability distribution of the amount of an individual`s genome surviving to the following generation

    SciTech Connect

    Bickeboeller, H.; Thompson, E.A.

    1996-06-01

    The results of this probability study concerning the heredity of the human genome state that it is very likely that an individual with at least 4 children passes on at least 90% of his genome. These results occur when an important assumption - the genomic continuum model - is made. 12 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  6. Exploring Heterozygosity-Survival Correlations in a Wild Songbird Population: Contrasting Effects between Juvenile and Adult Stages

    PubMed Central

    Canal, David; Serrano, David; Potti, Jaime

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between genetic diversity and fitness, a major issue in evolutionary and conservation biology, is expected to be stronger in traits affected by many loci and those directly influencing fitness. Here we explore the influence of heterozygosity measured at 15 neutral markers on individual survival, one of the most important parameters determining individual fitness. We followed individual survival up to recruitment and during subsequent adult life of 863 fledgling pied flycatchers born in two consecutive breeding seasons. Mark-recapture analyses showed that individual heterozygosity did not influence juvenile or adult survival. In contrast, the genetic relatedness of parents was negatively associated with the offspring’s survival during the adult life, but this effect was not apparent in the juvenile (from fledgling to recruitment) stage. Stochastic factors experienced during the first year of life in this long-distance migratory species may have swamped a relationship between heterozygosity and survival up to recruitment. PMID:25122217

  7. Survival of adult Tiphia vernalis (Hymenoptera: Tiphiidae) after insecticide, fungicide, and herbicide exposure in laboratory bioassays.

    PubMed

    Oliver, Jason B; Reding, Michael E; Moyseenko, James J; Klein, Michael G; Mannion, Catharine M; Bishop, Bert

    2006-04-01

    Tiphia vernalis Rohwer is a hymenopteran ectoparasitoid of Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica Newman, larvae. The adult wasps feed on nectar or honeydew between mid-April and late June. Adults may contact pesticides when landing on foliage or when females hunt for grubs in the soil. The lethal effect of nursery, turf, and landscape pesticides was determined by exposing wasps to treated foliage in the laboratory. Pesticides tested at labeled rates were the insecticides bifenthrin, carbaryl, chlorpyrifos, halofenozide, and imidacloprid; the herbicides oryzalin, pendimethalin, and a combination product with 2,4-D, dicamba, and mecoprop (multiherbicide); and the fungicides chlorothalonil and thiophanate-methyl. During 2001 and 2002, male and female T. vernalis were exposed to pesticides by using turf cores. For both years, bifenthrin, chlorpyrifos, and imidacloprid treatments lowered adult survival relative to the control, but halofenozide had minimal effect on mortality of males and females. More males than females died after exposure to carbaryl treatments. Survival of females was not reduced by exposure to herbicides or fungicides. Females were apparently more tolerant of pesticides than males. Mortality of males in response to herbicides and fungicides was more variable than for females; in 2002 trials, male mortality was higher after exposure to multiherbicide, oryzalin, pendimethalin, and thiophanate-methyl than the control. The fungicide chlorothalonil did not increase mortality of males or females in either year. Sublethal effects were not evaluated. The study indicates the choice of pesticide may be important for conserving T. vernalis in nursery, landscape, and turf settings.

  8. Active vision task and postural control in healthy, young adults: Synergy and probably not duality.

    PubMed

    Bonnet, Cédrick T; Baudry, Stéphane

    2016-07-01

    In upright stance, individuals sway continuously and the sway pattern in dual tasks (e.g., a cognitive task performed in upright stance) differs significantly from that observed during the control quiet stance task. The cognitive approach has generated models (limited attentional resources, U-shaped nonlinear interaction) to explain such patterns based on competitive sharing of attentional resources. The objective of the current manuscript was to review these cognitive models in the specific context of visual tasks involving gaze shifts toward precise targets (here called active vision tasks). The selection excluded the effects of early and late stages of life or disease, external perturbations, active vision tasks requiring head and body motions and the combination of two tasks performed together (e.g., a visual task in addition to a computation in one's head). The selection included studies performed by healthy, young adults with control and active - difficult - vision tasks. Over 174 studies found in Pubmed and Mendeley databases, nine were selected. In these studies, young adults exhibited significantly lower amplitude of body displacement (center of pressure and/or body marker) under active vision tasks than under the control task. Furthermore, the more difficult the active vision tasks were, the better the postural control was. This underscores that postural control during active vision tasks may rely on synergistic relations between the postural and visual systems rather than on competitive or dual relations. In contrast, in the control task, there would not be any synergistic or competitive relations.

  9. Adult survival of Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in a Pacific colony

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatch, Scott A.; Roberts, Bay D.; Fadely, Brian S.

    1993-01-01

    Breeding Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla survived at a mean annual rate of 0.926 in four years at a colony in Alaska. Survival rates observed in sexed males (0.930) and females (0.937) did not differ significantly. The rate of return among nonbreeding Kittiwakes (0.839) was lower than that of known breeders, presumably because more nonbreeders moved away from the study plots where they were marked. Individual nonbreeders frequented sites up to 5 km apart on the same island, while a few established breeders moved up to 2.5 km between years. Mate retention in breeding Kittiwakes averaged 69% in three years. Among pairs that split, the cause of changing mates was about equally divided between death (46%) and divorce (54%). Average adult life expectancy was estimated at 13.0 years. Combined with annual productivity averaging 0.17 chick per nest, the observed survival was insufficient for maintaining population size. Rather, an irregular decline observed in the study colony since 1981 is consistent with the model of a closed population with little or no recruitment. Compared to their Atlantic counterparts, Pacific Kittiwakes have low productivity and high survival. The question arises whether differences reflect phenotypic plasticity or genetically determined variation in population parameters.

  10. Production and survival of projection neurons in a forebrain vocal center of adult male canaries

    SciTech Connect

    Kirn, J.R.; Alvarez-Buylla, A.; Nottebohm, F. )

    1991-06-01

    Neurons are produced in the adult canary telencephalon. Many of these cells are incorporated into the high vocal center (nucleus HVC), which participates in the control of learned song. In the present work, 3H-thymidine and fluorogold were employed to follow the differentiation and survival of HVC neurons born in adulthood. We found that many HVC neurons born in September grow long axons to the robust nucleus of the archistriatum (nucleus RA) and thus become part of the efferent pathway for song control. Many of these new neurons have already established their connections with RA by 30 d after their birth. By 240 d, 75-80% of the September-born HVC neurons project to RA. Most of these new projection neurons survive at least 8 months. The longevity of HVC neurons born in September suggests that these cells remain part of the vocal control circuit long enough to participate in the yearly renewal of the song repertoire.

  11. Cancer incidence and survival in adolescents and young adults in France, 2000-2008.

    PubMed

    Desandes, Emmanuel; Lacour, Brigitte; Belot, Aurélien; Molinie, Florence; Delafosse, Patricia; Tretarre, Brigitte; Velten, Michel; Sauleau, Erik-André; Woronoff, Anne-Sophie; Guizard, Anne-Valérie; Ganry, Olivier; Bara, Simona; Grosclaude, Pascale; Troussard, Xavier; Bouvier, Véronique; Brugieres, Laurence; Clavel, Jacqueline

    2013-05-01

    This study aimed to describe cancer incidence (2000-2008) and survival (2000-2004) in France in adolescents and young adults (AYA). All cases of cancer diagnosed in 15-24 years, recorded by all French population-based registries (14% of the French population), over the 2000-2008 period, were included. Incidence change over time was described with the conventional annual percentage change (cAPC). The survival of cases diagnosed (2000-2004) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method. A total of 1022 in adolescents and 1396 in young adults were diagnosed. Overall incidence rates were 219.4/10(6) in 15-19 year olds and 293.1/10(6) in 20-24 year olds. The most frequently diagnosed cancers in male AYA were malignant gonadal germ-cell tumors and Hodgkin's disease, and were melanoma, thyroid carcinoma, and Hodgkin's disease in females. The age-standardized rates appeared stable over time in AYA, with a cAPC of +2.0% (P = 0.68). The 5-year overall survival for all cancers was different between genders and age groups, with 78.8% (95%CI: 75.6-82.0) for males and 85.2% (95%CI: 82.2-88.1) for females (P = 0.01), and 78.5% (95%CI: 75.0-82.1) in 15-19 year olds and 84.3% (95% CI: 81.6-87.0) in 20-24 year olds (P = 0.02). Noteworthy, the frequency and the distribution of tumor types in AYA are unique and different from the observed at any other age group. Survival in French AYA has improved over time. Epidemiological data might reflect major trends in the risk factors and preventive interventions. Thus, further research into etiology of cancers affecting AYA should become key priorities for cancer control among AYA.

  12. Impact injuries and probability of survival in a large semiurban endemic pigeon in New Zealand, Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae.

    PubMed

    Cousins, Rachael A; Battley, Phil F; Gartrell, Brett D; Powlesland, Ralph G

    2012-07-01

    The New Zealand Pigeon or kereru (Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae) frequently collides with windows and vehicles. In this study of 146 kereru collected from 1996 to 2009, we used 118 radiographs and 91 necropsies to determine skeletal and soft tissue injuries. Vehicle collisions resulted in more damage to the extremities (wing and femur), whereas collisions with windows resulted in trauma to the head, fractures/dislocations of the coracoids and clavicles, and ruptured internal organs. Soft tissue injuries included damage to the flight muscles and heart ruptures caused by fractured coracoid bones, as well as extensive bruising of pectoral muscles and hemorrhaging of the lungs. Rehabilitation time was not related to number of skeletal injuries sustained, nor was the time until death for those that did not survive. In general, kereru with greater numbers of injuries were less likely to survive rehabilitation. Flight speed and force calculations suggest that a 570-g kereru would collide with 3-70 times the force of smaller birds (5-180 g); this may explain the discrepancies between the injuries characterized here and those reported for North American passerines. The differences in injuries sustained from collisions with windows and cars can be used to inform rehabilitators about the possible nature of injuries if the source of impact is known.

  13. Survival and migration route probabilities of juvenile Chinook salmon in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta during the winter of 2009-10

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Romine, Jason G.; Brewer, Scott J.; LaCivita, Peter E.; Brostoff, William N.; Chapman, Eric D.

    2012-01-01

    Juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) emigrating from natal tributaries of the Sacramento River may use a number of migration routes to negotiate the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (hereafter, "the Delta"), each of which may influence their probability of surviving. We applied a mark-recapture model to data from acoustically tagged juvenile late-fall Chinook salmon that migrated through the Delta during the winter of 2009-10 (hereafter, 2010). This report presents findings from our fourth year of research. We estimated route-specific survival for four release groups: two release groups that migrated through the Delta in December 2009 and January 2010, and two release groups that migrated during February 2010. Population-level survival through the Delta (SDelta) ranged from 0.374 (SE = 0.040) to 0.524 (SE = 0.034) among releases. Although river flows for the February release groups were substantially higher (20,000-40,000 ft3/s at Freeport) than for the December release groups (about 10,000 ft3/s), SDelta did not differ considerably between release groups. Among migration routes, fish migrating through the Sacramento River exhibited the highest survival, and fish entering the interior Delta exhibited the lowest survival. Fish entering Sutter and Steamboat Sloughs had lower survival than fish entering the Sacramento River during December, but similar survival during February. These patterns were consistent among release groups, and strikingly similar to patterns observed in previous years. Migration routing varied among release groups partly because of differences in river discharge between releases. For the two December release groups, 26.5 and 28.9 percent of fish entered the interior Delta; for the two February release groups, 10.4 and 17.9 percent of fish entered the interior Delta. Differences in routing probabilities between December and February are partly related to the inverse relationship between flow and the fraction of discharge entering

  14. Cell survival fraction estimation based on the probability densities of domain and cell nucleus specific energies using improved microdosimetric kinetic models.

    PubMed

    Sato, Tatsuhiko; Furusawa, Yoshiya

    2012-10-01

    Estimation of the survival fractions of cells irradiated with various particles over a wide linear energy transfer (LET) range is of great importance in the treatment planning of charged-particle therapy. Two computational models were developed for estimating survival fractions based on the concept of the microdosimetric kinetic model. They were designated as the double-stochastic microdosimetric kinetic and stochastic microdosimetric kinetic models. The former model takes into account the stochastic natures of both domain and cell nucleus specific energies, whereas the latter model represents the stochastic nature of domain specific energy by its approximated mean value and variance to reduce the computational time. The probability densities of the domain and cell nucleus specific energies are the fundamental quantities for expressing survival fractions in these models. These densities are calculated using the microdosimetric and LET-estimator functions implemented in the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS) in combination with the convolution or database method. Both the double-stochastic microdosimetric kinetic and stochastic microdosimetric kinetic models can reproduce the measured survival fractions for high-LET and high-dose irradiations, whereas a previously proposed microdosimetric kinetic model predicts lower values for these fractions, mainly due to intrinsic ignorance of the stochastic nature of cell nucleus specific energies in the calculation. The models we developed should contribute to a better understanding of the mechanism of cell inactivation, as well as improve the accuracy of treatment planning of charged-particle therapy.

  15. Epithelial magnesium transport by TRPM6 is essential for prenatal development and adult survival

    PubMed Central

    Chubanov, Vladimir; Ferioli, Silvia; Wisnowsky, Annika; Simmons, David G; Leitzinger, Christin; Einer, Claudia; Jonas, Wenke; Shymkiv, Yuriy; Bartsch, Harald; Braun, Attila; Akdogan, Banu; Mittermeier, Lorenz; Sytik, Ludmila; Torben, Friedrich; Jurinovic, Vindi; van der Vorst, Emiel PC; Weber, Christian; Yildirim, Önder A; Sotlar, Karl; Schürmann, Annette; Zierler, Susanna; Zischka, Hans; Ryazanov, Alexey G; Gudermann, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Mg2+ regulates many physiological processes and signalling pathways. However, little is known about the mechanisms underlying the organismal balance of Mg2+. Capitalizing on a set of newly generated mouse models, we provide an integrated mechanistic model of the regulation of organismal Mg2+ balance during prenatal development and in adult mice by the ion channel TRPM6. We show that TRPM6 activity in the placenta and yolk sac is essential for embryonic development. In adult mice, TRPM6 is required in the intestine to maintain organismal Mg2+ balance, but is dispensable in the kidney. Trpm6 inactivation in adult mice leads to a shortened lifespan, growth deficit and metabolic alterations indicative of impaired energy balance. Dietary Mg2+ supplementation not only rescues all phenotypes displayed by Trpm6-deficient adult mice, but also may extend the lifespan of wildtype mice. Hence, maintenance of organismal Mg2+ balance by TRPM6 is crucial for prenatal development and survival to adulthood. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.20914.001 PMID:27991852

  16. Survival Trends After Surgery for Acute Subdural Hematoma in Adults Over a 20-year Period

    PubMed Central

    Fountain, Daniel M.; Kolias, Angelos G.; Lecky, Fiona E.; Bouamra, Omar; Lawrence, Thomas; Adams, Hadie; Bond, Simon J.; Hutchinson, Peter J.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: We sought to determine 30-day survival trends and prognostic factors following surgery for acute subdural hematomas (ASDHs) in England and Wales over a 20-year period. Summary of Background Data: ASDHs are still considered the most lethal type of traumatic brain injury. It remains unclear whether the adjusted odds of survival have improved significantly over time. Methods: Using the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) database, we analyzed ASDH cases in the adult population (>16 yrs) treated surgically between 1994 and 2013. Two thousand four hundred ninety-eight eligible cases were identified. Univariable and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed, using multiple imputation for missing data. Results: The cohort was 74% male with a median age of 48.9 years. Over half of patients were comatose at presentation (53%). Mechanism of injury was due to a fall (<2 m 34%, >2 m 24%), road traffic collision (25%), and other (17%). Thirty-six per cent of patients presented with polytrauma. Gross survival increased from 59% in 1994 to 1998 to 73% in 2009 to 2013. Under multivariable analysis, variables independently associated with survival were year of injury, Glasgow Coma Scale, Injury Severity Score, age, and pupil reactivity. The time interval from injury to craniotomy and direct admission to a neurosurgical unit were not found to be significant prognostic factors. Conclusions: A significant improvement in survival over the last 20 years was observed after controlling for multiple prognostic factors. Prospective trials and cohort studies are expected to elucidate the distribution of functional outcome in survivors. PMID:27172128

  17. Knockout of Atg5 delays the maturation and reduces the survival of adult-generated neurons in the hippocampus

    PubMed Central

    Xi, Y; Dhaliwal, J S; Ceizar, M; Vaculik, M; Kumar, K L; Lagace, D C

    2016-01-01

    Autophagy is an evolutionarily conserved lysosomal degradation pathway that plays important roles in cell maintenance, expansion and differentiation. Removal of genes essential for autophagy from embryonic neural stem and precursor cells reduces the survival and inhibits neuronal differentiation of adult-generated neurons. No study has modified autophagy within the adult precursor cells, leaving the cell-autonomous role of autophagy in adult neurogenesis unknown. Here we demonstrate that autophagic flux exists in the adult dividing progenitor cells and their progeny in the dentate gyrus. To investigate the role of autophagy in adult hippocampal neurogenesis, we genetically deleted Autophagy-related gene 5 (Atg5) that reduced autophagic flux and the survival of the progeny of dividing progenitor cells. This significant reduction in survival of adult-generated neurons is accompanied by a delay in neuronal maturation, including a transient reduction in spine density in the absence of a change in differentiation. The delay in cell maturation and loss of progeny of the Atg5-null cells was not present in mice that lacked the essential pro-apoptotic protein Bax (Bcl-2-associated X protein), suggesting that Atg5-deficient cells die through a Bax-dependent mechanism. In addition, there was a loss of Atg5-null cells following exposure to running, suggesting that Atg5 is required for running-induced increases in neurogenesis. These findings highlight the cell-autonomous requirement of Atg5 in the survival of adult-generated neurons. PMID:26938300

  18. Evidence of reduced individual heterogeneity in adult survival of long-lived species.

    PubMed

    Péron, Guillaume; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Barbraud, Christophe; Bonenfant, Christophe; Charmantier, Anne; Choquet, Rémi; Coulson, Tim; Grosbois, Vladimir; Loison, Anne; Marzolin, Gilbert; Owen-Smith, Norman; Pardo, Déborah; Plard, Floriane; Pradel, Roger; Toïgo, Carole; Gimenez, Olivier

    2016-12-01

    The canalization hypothesis postulates that the rate at which trait variation generates variation in the average individual fitness in a population determines how buffered traits are against environmental and genetic factors. The ranking of a species on the slow-fast continuum - the covariation among life-history traits describing species-specific life cycles along a gradient going from a long life, slow maturity, and low annual reproductive output, to a short life, fast maturity, and high annual reproductive output - strongly correlates with the relative fitness impact of a given amount of variation in adult survival. Under the canalization hypothesis, long-lived species are thus expected to display less individual heterogeneity in survival at the onset of adulthood, when reproductive values peak, than short-lived species. We tested this life-history prediction by analysing long-term time series of individual-based data in nine species of birds and mammals using capture-recapture models. We found that individual heterogeneity in survival was higher in species with short-generation time (< 3 years) than in species with long generation time (> 4 years). Our findings provide the first piece of empirical evidence for the canalization hypothesis at the individual level from the wild.

  19. Multicenter study on caries risk assessment in adults using survival Classification and Regression Trees

    PubMed Central

    Arino, Masumi; Ito, Ataru; Fujiki, Shozo; Sugiyama, Seiichi; Hayashi, Mikako

    2016-01-01

    Dental caries is an important public health problem worldwide. This study aims to prove how preventive therapies reduce the onset of caries in adult patients, and to identify patients with high or low risk of caries by using Classification and Regression Trees based survival analysis (survival CART). A clinical data set of 732 patients aged 20 to 64 years in nine Japanese general practices was analyzed with the following parameters: age, DMFT, number of mutans streptococci (SM) and Lactobacilli (LB), secretion rate and buffer capacity of saliva, and compliance with a preventive program. Results showed the incidence of primary carious lesion was affected by SM, LB and compliance with a preventive program; secondary carious lesion was affected by DMFT, SM and LB. Survival CART identified high-risk patients for primary carious lesion according to their poor compliance with a preventive program and SM (≥106 CFU/ml) with a hazard ratio of 3.66 (p = 0.0002). In the case of secondary caries, patients with LB (≥105 CFU/ml) and DMFT (>15) were identified as high risk with a hazard ratio of 3.50 (p < 0.0001). We conclude that preventive programs can be effective in limiting the incidence of primary carious lesion. PMID:27381750

  20. Attitudes toward Bisexual Men and Women among a Nationally Representative Probability Sample of Adults in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Herbenick, Debby; Friedman, M. Reuel; Schick, Vanessa; Fu, Tsung-Chieh (Jane); Bostwick, Wendy; Bartelt, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel; Pletta, David; Reece, Michael; Sandfort, Theo G. M.

    2016-01-01

    As bisexual individuals in the United States (U.S.) face significant health disparities, researchers have posited that these differences may be fueled, at least in part, by negative attitudes, prejudice, stigma, and discrimination toward bisexual individuals from heterosexual and gay/lesbian individuals. Previous studies of individual and social attitudes toward bisexual men and women have been conducted almost exclusively with convenience samples, with limited generalizability to the broader U.S. population. Our study provides an assessment of attitudes toward bisexual men and women among a nationally representative probability sample of heterosexual, gay, lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. Data were collected from the 2015 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior (NSSHB), via an online questionnaire with a probability sample of adults (18 years and over) from throughout the U.S. We included two modified 5-item versions of the Bisexualities: Indiana Attitudes Scale (BIAS), validated sub-scales that were developed to measure attitudes toward bisexual men and women. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, gamma regression, and paired t-tests. Gender, sexual identity, age, race/ethnicity, income, and educational attainment were all significantly associated with participants' attitudes toward bisexual individuals. In terms of responses to individual scale items, participants were most likely to “neither agree nor disagree” with all attitudinal statements. Across sexual identities, self-identified other participants reported the most positive attitudes, while heterosexual male participants reported the least positive attitudes. As in previous research on convenience samples, we found a wide range of demographic characteristics were related with attitudes toward bisexual individuals in our nationally-representative study of heterosexual, gay/lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. In particular, gender emerged as a significant

  1. Estimating the effect of hunting on annual survival rates of adult mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burnham, Kenneth P.; White, Gary C.; Anderson, David R.

    1984-01-01

    Management programs for waterfowl populations include rationale for, and establishment of, hunting regulations. These programs rest partially on the results of scientific studies on the effect of harvest rates on annual survival rates. The evidence of this relationship has changed markedly since the mid-1970's, and it is not widely believed that a largely compensatory relationship exists between hunting mortality and other forms of mortality for the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). This paper employs a general probabilistic model formulated to include a parameter (b) representing a continuum between complete compensation (b=0) and total additivity (b=1). Maximum likelihood estimates of this parameter were computer for 47 data sets of adult mallards banded throughout North American before hunting commenced. We found additional evidence of a highly compensatory mortality process for adult male mallards, while the evidence for adults female mallards remains inconclusive. Effective harvest, land acquisition, and land management programs depend upon additional information on the chronology and mechanisms underlying a compensatory mortality process.

  2. First estimates of the probability of survival in a small-bodied, high-elevation frog (Boreal Chorus Frog, Pseudacris maculata), or how historical data can be useful

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Muths, Erin L.; Scherer, R. D.; Amburgey, S. M.; Matthews, T.; Spencer, A. W.; Corn, P.S.

    2016-01-01

    In an era of shrinking budgets yet increasing demands for conservation, the value of existing (i.e., historical) data are elevated. Lengthy time series on common, or previously common, species are particularly valuable and may be available only through the use of historical information. We provide first estimates of the probability of survival and longevity (0.67–0.79 and 5–7 years, respectively) for a subalpine population of a small-bodied, ostensibly common amphibian, the Boreal Chorus Frog (Pseudacris maculata (Agassiz, 1850)), using historical data and contemporary, hypothesis-driven information–theoretic analyses. We also test a priori hypotheses about the effects of color morph (as suggested by early reports) and of drought (as suggested by recent climate predictions) on survival. Using robust mark–recapture models, we find some support for early hypotheses regarding the effect of color on survival, but we find no effect of drought. The congruence between early findings and our analyses highlights the usefulness of historical information in providing raw data for contemporary analyses and context for conservation and management decisions.

  3. Long-term survival in laparoscopic vs open resection for colorectal liver metastases: inverse probability of treatment weighting using propensity scores

    PubMed Central

    Lewin, Joel W.; O'Rourke, Nicholas A.; Chiow, Adrian K.H.; Bryant, Richard; Martin, Ian; Nathanson, Leslie K.; Cavallucci, David J.

    2015-01-01

    Background This study compares long-term outcomes between intention-to-treat laparoscopic and open approaches to colorectal liver metastases (CLM), using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) based on propensity scores to control for selection bias. Method Patients undergoing liver resection for CLM by 5 surgeons at 3 institutions from 2000 to early 2014 were analysed. IPTW based on propensity scores were generated and used to assess the marginal treatment effect of the laparoscopic approach via a weighted Cox proportional hazards model. Results A total of 298 operations were performed in 256 patients. 7 patients with planned two-stage resections were excluded leaving 284 operations in 249 patients for analysis. After IPTW, the population was well balanced. With a median follow up of 36 months, 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) for the cohort were 59% and 38%. 146 laparoscopic procedures were performed in 140 patients, with weighted 5-year OS and RFS of 54% and 36% respectively. In the open group, 138 procedures were performed in 122 patients, with a weighted 5-year OS and RFS of 63% and 38% respectively. There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of OS or RFS. Conclusion In the Brisbane experience, after accounting for bias in treatment assignment, long term survival after LLR for CLM is equivalent to outcomes in open surgery. PMID:26902138

  4. Doublecortin (DCX) is not Essential for Survival and Differentiation of Newborn Neurons in the Adult Mouse Dentate Gyrus

    PubMed Central

    Dhaliwal, Jagroop; Xi, Yanwei; Bruel-Jungerman, Elodie; Germain, Johanne; Francis, Fiona; Lagace, Diane C.

    2016-01-01

    In the adult brain, expression of the microtubule-associated protein Doublecortin (DCX) is associated with neural progenitor cells (NPCs) that give rise to new neurons in the dentate gyrus. Many studies quantify the number of DCX-expressing cells as a proxy for the level of adult neurogenesis, yet no study has determined the effect of removing DCX from adult hippocampal NPCs. Here, we use a retroviral and inducible mouse transgenic approach to either knockdown or knockout DCX from adult NPCs in the dentate gyrus and examine how this affects cell survival and neuronal maturation. Our results demonstrate that shRNA-mediated knockdown of DCX or Cre-mediated recombination in floxed DCX mice does not alter hippocampal neurogenesis and does not change the neuronal fate of the NPCs. Together these findings show that the survival and maturation of adult-generated hippocampal neurons does not require DCX. PMID:26793044

  5. Early-life disease exposure and associations with adult survival, cause of death, and reproductive success in preindustrial humans

    PubMed Central

    Hayward, Adam D.; Rigby, Francesca L.; Lummaa, Virpi

    2016-01-01

    A leading hypothesis proposes that increased human life span since 1850 has resulted from decreased exposure to childhood infections, which has reduced chronic inflammation and later-life mortality rates, particularly from cardiovascular disease, stroke, and cancer. Early-life cohort mortality rate often predicts later-life survival in humans, but such associations could arise from factors other than disease exposure. Additionally, the impact of early-life disease exposure on reproduction remains unknown, and thus previous work ignores a major component of fitness through which selection acts upon life-history strategy. We collected data from seven 18th- and 19th-century Finnish populations experiencing naturally varying mortality and fertility levels. We quantified early-life disease exposure as the detrended child mortality rate from infectious diseases during an individual’s first 5 y, controlling for important social factors. We found no support for an association between early-life disease exposure and all-cause mortality risk after age 15 or 50. We also found no link between early-life disease exposure and probability of death specifically from cardiovascular disease, stroke, or cancer. Independent of survival, there was no evidence to support associations between early-life disease exposure and any of several aspects of reproductive performance, including lifetime reproductive success and age at first birth, in either males or females. Our results do not support the prevailing assertion that exposure to infectious diseases in early life has long-lasting associations with later-life all-cause mortality risk or mortality putatively linked to chronic inflammation. Variation in adulthood conditions could therefore be the most likely source of recent increases in adult life span. PMID:27457937

  6. Cancer Incidence and Survival among Adolescents and Young Adults in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Moon, Eun-Kyeong; Park, Hyeon Jin; Oh, Chang-Mo; Jung, Kyu-Won; Shin, Hee Young; Park, Byung Kiu; Won, Young-Joo

    2014-01-01

    Background In Korea, cancer is the third leading cause of death among adolescents and young adults (AYAs). However, cancer incidence and survival trends among AYAs (15–29 years) have never been studied in Korea. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the incidence and relative survival rates and their trends among AYAs in Korea. Materials and Methods Cancer incidence data from 1999–2010 were obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry (KCCR). Each cancer was classified into subgroups according to the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) AYA site recode. Percent distributions, age-specific incidence rates, age-standardized incidence rates per million, and annual percent changes (APCs) were calculated for AYAs according to sex. Five-year relative survival rates were estimated for cases diagnosed between 1993 and 2010 and followed up to 2011. Results The age-standardized incidence rates of all cancers combined were 196.4 and 367.8 per million for males and females, respectively (male-to-female (M/F) ratio: 0.5). The age-standardized incidence rates increased from 208.7 per million in 1999 to 396.4 per million in 2010, and the APC was 6.3% (P<0.001). The five most common cancers among AYAs were thyroid carcinoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, stomach carcinoma, breast carcinoma, and acute myeloid leukemia. In males, the 5-year relative survival rate improved, from 46.5% in 1993–1995 to 75.9% in 2006–2010. In females, the 5-year relative survival rate also improved, from 66.7% in 1993–1995 to 89.1% in 2006–2010. Conclusions Our study showed increases in cancer incidence and improvements in the 5-year relative survival rate among Korean AYAs. This study also provides additional data regarding temporal and geographic trends in cancer that may enhance future efforts to identify factors affecting cancer incidence and responses to treatment among AYAs. PMID:24789075

  7. Global divergence in critical income for adult and childhood survival: analyses of mortality using Michaelis-Menten.

    PubMed

    Hum, Ryan J; Jha, Prabhat; McGahan, Anita M; Cheng, Yu-Ling

    2012-12-13

    Life expectancy has risen sharply in the last 50 years. We applied the classic Michaelis-Menten enzyme kinetics to demonstrate a novel mathematical relationship of income to childhood (aged 0-5 years) and adult (aged 15-60 years) survival. We treat income as a substrate that is catalyzed to increase survival (from technologies that income buys) for 180 countries from 1970 and 2007. Michaelis-Menten kinetics permit estimates of maximal survival and, uniquely, the critical income needed to achieve half of the period-specific maximum. Maximum child and adult survival rose by about 1% per year. Critical incomes fell by half for children, but doubled for men. HIV infection and smoking account for some, but not all, of the rising critical incomes for adult survival. Altering the future cost curve for adult survival will require more widespread use of current interventions, most notably tobacco control, but also research to identify practicable low-cost drugs, diagnostics, and strategies.DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00051.001.

  8. High juvenile mortality is associated with sex-specific adult survival and lifespan in wild roe deer.

    PubMed

    Garratt, Michael; Lemaître, Jean-François; Douhard, Mathieu; Bonenfant, Christophe; Capron, Gilles; Warnant, Claude; Klein, François; Brooks, Robert C; Gaillard, Jean-Michel

    2015-03-16

    Male mammals typically have shorter lifespans than females [1]. Sex differences in survival may result, in part, from sex-specific optima in investment in reproduction, with higher male mortality rates from sexual competition selecting for a "live-fast die-young" strategy in this sex [2]. In the wild, lifespan is also influenced by environmental conditions experienced early in life. Poor conditions elevate juvenile mortality, which may selectively remove individuals with a particular phenotype or genotype from a cohort [3], and can alter the subsequent phenotypic condition and fate of those that survive to adulthood [4]. Males and females can respond differently to the same early-life environmental experiences [5, 6], but whether such environmental pressures generate sex differences in lifespan has rarely been considered. We show that sex differences in adult survival and lifespan in cohorts of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) range from virtually absent in some years to females living 30% longer than males in others. The extent of this sex difference in adult longevity is strongly linked to the level of mortality each cohort experiences as juveniles, with high juvenile mortality generating a strong sex difference in both adult survival and lifespan. In females, high juvenile mortality leads to increased adult survival for those remaining individuals, whereas in males survival is actually reduced. Early environmental conditions and the selective pressures they impose may help to explain variability in sex-specific aging across animal taxa.

  9. Cancer incidence and survival (1997-2006) among adolescents and young adults in the north of Portugal.

    PubMed

    Carreira, Helena; Antunes, Luís; Castro, Clara; Lunet, Nuno; Bento, Maria José

    2012-10-01

    Cancer is the first cause of natural death among young subjects. Population-based statistics are important to evaluate the burden of disease and the effectiveness of healthcare provision. We aimed to describe cancer incidence and survival among adolescents (15-19 years) and young adults (20-24 years) in the north of Portugal. Data on the cancers diagnosed between 1997 and 2006 were obtained from the Portuguese North Region Cancer Registry, and incidence rates were computed. Vital status was determined until December 2010. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier survival function. Trends on cancer incidence were assessed using the Joinpoint regression analysis. A total of 1223 cases were diagnosed: 441 among adolescents and 782 among young adults. Overall incidence rate was 198.3 per million adolescents [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 135.7-260.9] and 306.2 per million young adults (95% CI: 262.3-350.0). The most frequent tumors were Hodgkin lymphoma (adolescents: 21.0%; young adults: 14.8%), thyroid carcinoma (adolescents: 11.5%; young adults: 16.2%), and germ cell tumors (adolescents: 11.1%; young adults: 16.3%). Cancer incidence significantly increased among young adults [annual average percent change: 3.6%, (95% CI: 1.7-5.4)], while appears to vary randomly among adolescents. Overall five-year observed survival was 77.2% (95% CI: 72.9%-80.8%) among adolescents and 81.3% (95% CI: 78.4%-83.9%) among young adults, lower in males. In conclusion, cancer incidence among adolescents and young adults is higher in the north of Portugal than in other European countries, especially of thyroid tumors. Between 1997 and 2006, the incidence increased significantly in young adults.

  10. Demographic, Psychological, and Social Characteristics of Self-Identified Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Adults in a US Probability Sample

    PubMed Central

    Norton, Aaron T.; Allen, Thomas J.; Sims, Charles L.

    2010-01-01

    Using data from a US national probability sample of self-identified lesbian, gay, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports population parameter estimates for a variety of demographic, psychological, and social variables. Special emphasis is given to information with relevance to public policy and law. Compared with the US adult population, respondents were younger, more highly educated, and less likely to be non-Hispanic White, but differences were observed between gender and sexual orientation groups on all of these variables. Overall, respondents tended to be politically liberal, not highly religious, and supportive of marriage equality for same-sex couples. Women were more likely than men to be in a committed relationship. Virtually all coupled gay men and lesbians had a same-sex partner, whereas the vast majority of coupled bisexuals were in a heterosexual relationship. Compared with bisexuals, gay men and lesbians reported stronger commitment to a sexual-minority identity, greater community identification and involvement, and more extensive disclosure of their sexual orientation to others. Most respondents reported experiencing little or no choice about their sexual orientation. The importance of distinguishing among lesbians, gay men, bisexual women, and bisexual men in behavioral and social research is discussed. PMID:20835383

  11. Conspecific Leaf Litter-Mediated Effect of Conspecific Adult Neighborhood on Early-Stage Seedling Survival in A Subtropical Forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Heming; Shen, Guochun; Ma, Zunping; Yang, Qingsong; Xia, Jianyang; Fang, Xiaofeng; Wang, Xihua

    2016-11-01

    Conspecific adults have strong negative effect on the survival of nearby early-stage seedlings and thus can promote species coexistence by providing space for the regeneration of heterospecifics. The leaf litter fall from the conspecific adults, and it could mediate this conspecific negative adult effect. However, field evidence for such effect of conspecific leaf litter remains absent. In this study, we used generalized linear mixed models to assess the effects of conspecific leaf litter on the early-stage seedling survival of four dominant species (Machilus leptophylla, Litsea elongate, Acer pubinerve and Distylium myricoides) in early-stage seedlings in a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in eastern China. Our results consistently showed that the conspecific leaf litter of three species negatively affected the seedling survival. Meanwhile, the traditional conspecific adult neighborhood indices failed to detect this negative conspecific adult effect. Our study revealed that the accumulation of conspecific leaf litter around adults can largely reduce the survival rate of nearby seedlings. Ignoring it could result in underestimation of the importance of negative density dependence and negative species interactions in the natural forest communities.

  12. Conspecific Leaf Litter-Mediated Effect of Conspecific Adult Neighborhood on Early-Stage Seedling Survival in A Subtropical Forest

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Heming; Shen, Guochun; Ma, Zunping; Yang, Qingsong; Xia, Jianyang; Fang, Xiaofeng; Wang, Xihua

    2016-01-01

    Conspecific adults have strong negative effect on the survival of nearby early-stage seedlings and thus can promote species coexistence by providing space for the regeneration of heterospecifics. The leaf litter fall from the conspecific adults, and it could mediate this conspecific negative adult effect. However, field evidence for such effect of conspecific leaf litter remains absent. In this study, we used generalized linear mixed models to assess the effects of conspecific leaf litter on the early-stage seedling survival of four dominant species (Machilus leptophylla, Litsea elongate, Acer pubinerve and Distylium myricoides) in early-stage seedlings in a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in eastern China. Our results consistently showed that the conspecific leaf litter of three species negatively affected the seedling survival. Meanwhile, the traditional conspecific adult neighborhood indices failed to detect this negative conspecific adult effect. Our study revealed that the accumulation of conspecific leaf litter around adults can largely reduce the survival rate of nearby seedlings. Ignoring it could result in underestimation of the importance of negative density dependence and negative species interactions in the natural forest communities. PMID:27886275

  13. Copulating with multiple mates enhances female fecundity but not egg-to-adult survival in the bruchid beetle Callosobruchus maculatus.

    PubMed

    Eady, P E; Wilson, N; Jackson, M

    2000-12-01

    Postcopulatory sexual selection theory has come a long way since the evolutionary implications of sperm competition were first spelled out by Parker (1970). However, one of the most enduring questions remains: why do females copulate with multiple males? Here we show that females copulating with multiple males lay more eggs than those copulating repeatedly with the same male. We also show egg-to-adult survival to be more variable when females copulate multiply with different males and less variable when they copulate multiply with the same male. This supports the notion that egg-to-adult survival may depend on the genetic compatibility of males and females. However, pre-adult survival was highest when females copulated repeatedly with the same male rather than with different males. Thus, it would appear that polyandry in this species does not function to reduce the risk of embryo failure resulting from fertilization by genetically incompatible sperm.

  14. Childhood cancer camps: their role in adults surviving childhood cancers lives.

    PubMed

    Beckwitt, Asher E

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the role that childhood cancer camps continue to play in the lives of adults surviving childhood cancers (ASCCs). Specifically, the purpose of this study is to understand the roles these camps play in enhancing ASCCs' psychosocial and emotional well-being and access to information. Twenty-three ASCCs participated in this study. Illness narratives were used to understand ASCCs' camp experiences. Three themes emerged from the data analysis to reflect ASCCs' experiences: (1) normalcy, (2) meaningful camp experiences, and (3) access to information. Results show that in the years following camp participation, childhood cancer camps continue to play an important role in ASCCs' lives, providing them with ongoing social and emotional support and access to resources.

  15. Role for protein geranylgeranylation in adult T-cell leukemia cell survival

    SciTech Connect

    Nonaka, Mizuho; Uota, Shin; Saitoh, Yasunori; Takahashi, Mayumi; Sugimoto, Haruyo; Amet, Tohti; Arai, Ayako; Miura, Osamu; Yamamoto, Naoki; Yamaoka, Shoji

    2009-01-15

    Adult T-cell leukemia (ATL) is a fatal lymphoproliferative disease that develops in human T-cell leukemia virus type I (HTLV-I)-infected individuals. Despite the accumulating knowledge of the molecular biology of HTLV-I-infected cells, effective therapeutic strategies remain to be established. Recent reports showed that the hydroxyl-3-methylglutaryl (HMG)-CoA reductase inhibitor statins have anti-proliferative and apoptotic effects on certain tumor cells through inhibition of protein prenylation. Here, we report that statins hinder the survival of ATL cells and induce apoptotic cell death. Inhibition of protein geranylgeranylation is responsible for these effects, since simultaneous treatment with isoprenoid precursors, geranylgeranyl pyrophosphate or farnesyl pyrophosphate, but not a cholesterol precursor squalene, restored the viability of ATL cells. Simvastatin inhibited geranylgeranylation of small GTPases Rab5B and Rac1 in ATL cells, and a geranylgeranyl transferase inhibitor GGTI-298 reduced ATL cell viability more efficiently than a farnesyl transferase inhibitor FTI-277. These results not only unveil an important role for protein geranylgeranylation in ATL cell survival, but also implicate therapeutic potentials of statins in the treatment of ATL.

  16. Global assessment of cancer incidence and survival in adolescents and young adults.

    PubMed

    Bleyer, Archie; Ferrari, Andrea; Whelan, Jeremy; Barr, Ronald D

    2017-02-28

    In high-income countries, cancer remains the commonest cause of disease-related death in adolescents and young adults (AYAs) despite survival improvements. With more than 1,000,000 new diagnoses of cancer in AYAs annually worldwide, and their number of life-years affected by cancer being greatest of all ages, the global burden of cancer in AYAs exceeds that in all other ages. In low- and middle-income countries, where the great majority of the world's 3 billion AYAs reside, the needs of those with cancer have been identified and demand attention. Unique to the age group but universal, the psychosocial challenges they face are the utmost across life's spectrum. This lead-off article of a new series in Pediatric Blood and Cancer on AYA oncology attempts to assess the global status of this emerging discipline. The review includes the changing incidence and survival of the common cancers in AYAs-there is no other age group with a similar array of malignancies-and the specific challenges to quality and quantity of life that compromise their lives.

  17. Social Structural Influences on Healthy Aging: Community-Level Socioeconomic Conditions and Survival Probability of Becoming a Centenarian for Those Aged 65 to 69 in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jong In; Kim, Gukbin

    2015-10-01

    This study estimated the associations between community-level socioeconomic conditions and survival probability of becoming a centenarian (SPBC) for those aged 65 to 69 in South Korea to determine the social structural influences on healthy aging. The indicators of socioeconomic and data of centenarians were obtained from Statistics Korea database 2014: population census and social survey. Significant positive correlations were found between SPBC and community-level socioeconomic conditions (minimum cost of living and economically active population, water supply and sewerage, pave a road with asphalt, and urbanization). SPBC male and female predictors had higher economic level and base facilities (R2)=0.578, p<.001). The study provides evidence that community-level socioeconomic conditions are important correlates of SPBC for those aged 65 to 69 in South Korea. These strategies should include social structural influences on successful aging in the overall socioeconomic conditions.

  18. Live or let die - retinal ganglion cell death and survival during development and in the lesioned adult CNS.

    PubMed

    Bähr, M

    2000-10-01

    Programmed cell death or apoptosis is a common and widespread phenomenon that is important for proper development of the nervous system. In the adult CNS, however, apoptosis contributes to secondary cell loss after various types of lesions. The retino-tectal system has been successfully used as a convenient model system to study the molecular mechanisms of neuronal apoptosis and survival during development and in the lesioned adult CNS. This review describes the current knowledge about the interactions of cell death and survival pathways in general and for retinal ganglion cells specifically.

  19. Movement disorders in adult surviving patients with maple syrup urine disease.

    PubMed

    Carecchio, Miryam; Schneider, Susanne A; Chan, Heidi; Lachmann, Robin; Lee, Philip J; Murphy, Elaine; Bhatia, Kailash P

    2011-06-01

    Maple syrup urine disease is a rare metabolic disorder caused by mutations in the branched-chain α-keto acid dehydrogenase complex gene. Patients generally present early in life with a toxic encephalopathy because of the accumulation of the branched-chain amino acids leucine, isoleucine, and valine and the corresponding ketoacids. Movement disorders in maple syrup urine disease have typically been described during decompensation episodes or at presentation in the context of a toxic encephalopathy, with complete resolution after appropriate dietary treatment. Movement disorders in patients surviving childhood are not well documented. We assessed 17 adult patients with maple syrup urine disease (mean age, 27.5 years) with a special focus on movement disorders. Twelve (70.6%) had a movement disorder on clinical examination, mainly tremor and dystonia or a combination of both. Parkinsonism and simple motor tics were also observed. Pyramidal signs were present in 11 patients (64.7%), and a spastic-dystonic gait was observed in 6 patients (35.2%). In summary, movement disorders are common in treated adult patients with maple syrup urine disease, and careful neurological examination is advisable to identify those who may benefit from specific therapy. © 2011 Movement Disorder Society.

  20. Adult tree swallow survival on the polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated Hudson River, New York, USA, between 2006 and 2010.

    PubMed

    Custer, Christine M; Custer, Thomas W; Hines, James E

    2012-08-01

    The upper Hudson River basin in east central New York, USA, is highly contaminated, primarily with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Reduced adult survival has been documented in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) at a similarly PCB-contaminated river system in western Massachusetts. The purpose of the present study was to assess whether adult survival of tree swallows was likewise affected in the Hudson River basin. Between 2006 and 2010, a total of 521 female tree swallows were banded, of which 148 were retrapped at least once. The authors used Program MARK and an information theoretic approach to test the hypothesis that PCB contamination reduced annual survival of female tree swallows. The model that best described the processes that generated the capture history data included covariate effects of year and female plumage coloration on survival but not PCB/river. Annual survival rates of brown-plumaged females (mostly one year old) were generally lower (mean phi=0.39) than those of blue-plumaged females (mean phi=0.50, one year or older). Poor early spring weather in 2007 was associated with reduced survival in both plumage-color groups compared to later years. Models with the effects of PCB exposure on survival (all ΔAICc values >5.0) received little support.

  1. Adult tree swallow survival on the polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated Hudson River, New York, USA, between 2006 and 2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Custer, Christine M.; Custer, Thomas W.; Hines, James E.

    2012-01-01

    The upper Hudson River basin in east central New York, USA, is highly contaminated, primarily with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Reduced adult survival has been documented in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) at a similarly PCB-contaminated river system in western Massachusetts. The purpose of the present study was to assess whether adult survival of tree swallows was likewise affected in the Hudson River basin. Between 2006 and 2010, a total of 521 female tree swallows were banded, of which 148 were retrapped at least once. The authors used Program MARK and an information theoretic approach to test the hypothesis that PCB contamination reduced annual survival of female tree swallows. The model that best described the processes that generated the capture history data included covariate effects of year and female plumage coloration on survival but not PCB/river. Annual survival rates of brown-plumaged females (mostly one year old) were generally lower (mean phi = 0.39) than those of blue-plumaged females (mean phi = 0.50, one year or older). Poor early spring weather in 2007 was associated with reduced survival in both plumage-color groups compared to later years. Models with the effects of PCB exposure on survival (all ΔAICc values >5.0) received little support.

  2. Relative abundance, site fidelity, and survival of adult lake trout in Lake Michigan from 1999 to 2001: Implications for future restoration strategies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bronte, C.R.; Holey, M.E.; Madenjian, C.P.; Jonas, J.L.; Claramunt, R.M.; McKee, P.C.; Toneys, M.L.; Ebener, M.P.; Breidert, B.; Fleischer, G.W.; Hess, R.; Martell, A.W.; Olsen, E.J.

    2007-01-01

    We compared the relative abundance of lake trout Salvelinus namaycush spawners in gill nets during fall 1999–2001 in Lake Michigan at 19 stocked spawning sites with that at 25 unstocked sites to evaluate how effective site-specific stocking was in recolonizing historically important spawning reefs. The abundance of adult fish was higher at stocked onshore and offshore sites than at unstocked sites. This suggests that site-specific stocking is more effective at establishing spawning aggregations than relying on the ability of hatchery-reared lake trout to find spawning reefs, especially those offshore. Spawner densities were generally too low and too young at most sites to expect significant natural reproduction. However, densities were sufficiently high at some sites for reproduction to occur and therefore the lack of recruitment was attributable to other factors. Less than 3% of all spawners could have been wild fish, which indicates that little natural reproduction occurred in past years. Wounding by sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus was generally lower for Seneca Lake strain fish and highest for strains from Lake Superior. Fish captured at offshore sites in southern Lake Michigan had the lowest probability of wounding, while fish at onshore sites in northern Lake Michigan had the highest probability. The relative survival of the Seneca Lake strain was higher than that of the Lewis Lake or the Marquette strains for the older year-classes examined. Survival differences among strains were less evident for younger year-classes. Recaptures of coded-wire-tagged fish of five strains indicated that most fish returned to their stocking site or to a nearby site and that dispersal from stocking sites during spawning was about 100 km. Restoration strategies should rely on site-specific stocking of lake trout strains with good survival at selected historically important offshore spawning sites to increase egg deposition and the probability of natural reproduction in Lake

  3. Late summer survival of adult female and juvenile spectacled eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Barry, Grand J.; Morse, J.A.; Fondell, T.F.

    2000-01-01

    We used radio-telemetry to examine survival of adult female and juvenile Spectacled Eiders (Somateria fischeri) from 30 days after hatch until departure from the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) during 1997-1999. Juvenile survival was 71.4%; adult female survival was 88.5%. Mink (Mustella vison) were the most common predator identified for both adults and juveniles. Detectable levels of lead were found in bones of 74% of juvenile carcasses recovered and 21% had levels indicative of acute exposure. Average age at departure was 59 ?? 1 days old for juveniles and 56 ?? 1 days after hatch for adults. Most broods (60.5%) departed the YKD synchronously. Overall our data indicate that mortality during the latter half of brood-rearing is higher than previously thought. We conclude that brood rearing is a period of high mortality for brood-rearing females and that lead poisoning is responsible for reductions in juvenile survival to fledging. Received 15 February 2000, accepted 1 April 2000.

  4. Postnatal growth rates covary weakly with embryonic development rates and do not explain adult mortality probability among songbirds on four continents

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Thomas E.; Oteyza, Juan C.; Mitchell, Adam E.; Potticary, Ahva L.; Lloyd, P.

    2016-01-01

    Growth and development rates may result from genetic programming of intrinsic processes that yield correlated rates between life stages. These intrinsic rates are thought to affect adult mortality probability and longevity. However, if proximate extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, food) influence development rates differently between stages and yield low covariance between stages, then development rates may not explain adult mortality probability. We examined these issues based on study of 90 songbird species on four continents to capture the diverse life-history strategies observed across geographic space. The length of the embryonic period explained little variation (ca. 13%) in nestling periods and growth rates among species. This low covariance suggests that the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic influences on growth and development rates differs between stages. Consequently, nestling period durations and nestling growth rates were not related to annual adult mortality probability among diverse songbird species within or among sites. The absence of a clear effect of faster growth on adult mortality when examined in an evolutionary framework across species may indicate that species that evolve faster growth also evolve physiological mechanisms for ameliorating costs on adult mortality. Instead, adult mortality rates of species in the wild may be determined more strongly by extrinsic environmental causes.

  5. Postnatal growth rates covary weakly with embryonic development rates and do not explain adult mortality probability among songbirds on four continents.

    PubMed

    Martin, Thomas E; Oteyza, Juan C; Mitchell, Adam E; Potticary, Ahva L; Lloyd, Penn

    2015-03-01

    Growth and development rates may result from genetic programming of intrinsic processes that yield correlated rates between life stages. These intrinsic rates are thought to affect adult mortality probability and longevity. However, if proximate extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, food) influence development rates differently between stages and yield low covariance between stages, then development rates may not explain adult mortality probability. We examined these issues based on study of 90 songbird species on four continents to capture the diverse life-history strategies observed across geographic space. The length of the embryonic period explained little variation (ca. 13%) in nestling periods and growth rates among species. This low covariance suggests that the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic influences on growth and development rates differs between stages. Consequently, nestling period durations and nestling growth rates were not related to annual adult mortality probability among diverse songbird species within or among sites. The absence of a clear effect of faster growth on adult mortality when examined in an evolutionary framework across species may indicate that species that evolve faster growth also evolve physiological mechanisms for ameliorating costs on adult mortality. Instead, adult mortality rates of species in the wild may be determined more strongly by extrinsic environmental causes.

  6. Annual adult survival of Least Auklets (Aves, Alcidae) varies with large-scale climatic conditions of the North Pacific Ocean.

    PubMed

    Jones, Ian L; Hunter, Fiona M; Robertson, Gregory J

    2002-09-01

    We evaluated whether annual adult survival of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla), a small planktivorous seabird, covaried with large-scale oceanographic conditions in the North Pacific ocean during 1990-2000. Adult Least Auklets (n=358 total) were captured near their nest sites, marked with plastic color bands, and survival estimates were based on color band resightings at their breeding colony. Survival estimates and relationships between survival and three large-scale indices of climatic conditions that correlate with oceanography: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO), Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALPI), and North Pacific Index (NPI) were evaluated using program MARK. The best models included: (1) two groups of birds, defined by ease of resighting, that differed in recapture rate (p) but not survival rate (φ); and (2) models that allowed for survival rates to differ in the year immediately after first capture from all subsequent years (structurally an age-model). Both of these model structures effectively explained (i.e. removed) sources of heterogeneity in the data set. For Least Auklet survival, the best fitting model was a two-age model incorporating the covariate NPI (average value for the period auklets were at sea, August - April), [φ(age1, age2×NPI), p(g)]. The annual survival rate varied from 0.747±0.075 SE in 1992-1993 to 0.953±0.052 in 1991-1992 (based on the model [φ(age1, age2×t), p(g)]) and averaged 0.873±0.037 over the study period. Least Auklet annual survival covaried with continuous variation in large-scale climatic conditions. Our results point to oceanographic conditions that relate to climate change as crucial to the status of auklet populations, notwithstanding conservation measures taken to control introduced predators, oil spills, human disturbance and other anthropogenic sources of mortality.

  7. Determining Risk of Falls in Community Dwelling Older Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Using Posttest Probability

    PubMed Central

    Fritz, Stacy; Middleton, Addie; Allison, Leslie; Wingood, Mariana; Phillips, Emma; Criss, Michelle; Verma, Sangita; Osborne, Jackie; Chui, Kevin K.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Falls and their consequences are significant concerns for older adults, caregivers, and health care providers. Identification of fall risk is crucial for appropriate referral to preventive interventions. Falls are multifactorial; no single measure is an accurate diagnostic tool. There is limited information on which history question, self-report measure, or performance-based measure, or combination of measures, best predicts future falls. Purpose: First, to evaluate the predictive ability of history questions, self-report measures, and performance-based measures for assessing fall risk of community-dwelling older adults by calculating and comparing posttest probability (PoTP) values for individual test/measures. Second, to evaluate usefulness of cumulative PoTP for measures in combination. Data Sources: To be included, a study must have used fall status as an outcome or classification variable, have a sample size of at least 30 ambulatory community-living older adults (≥65 years), and track falls occurrence for a minimum of 6 months. Studies in acute or long-term care settings, as well as those including participants with significant cognitive or neuromuscular conditions related to increased fall risk, were excluded. Searches of Medline/PubMED and Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health (CINAHL) from January 1990 through September 2013 identified 2294 abstracts concerned with fall risk assessment in community-dwelling older adults. Study Selection: Because the number of prospective studies of fall risk assessment was limited, retrospective studies that classified participants (faller/nonfallers) were also included. Ninety-five full-text articles met inclusion criteria; 59 contained necessary data for calculation of PoTP. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) was used to assess each study's methodological quality. Data Extraction: Study design and QUADAS score determined the level of evidence. Data for calculation

  8. Modeling the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in apple cider using probability distribution functions for quantitative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Duffy, S; Schaffner, D W

    2001-05-01

    Outbreaks of foodborne illness from apple cider have prompted research on the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in this food. Published results vary widely, potentially due to differences in E. coli O157:H7 strains, enumeration media, and other experimental considerations. We developed probability distribution functions for the change in concentration of E. coli O157:H7 (log CFU/day) in cider using data from scientific publications for use in a quantitative risk assessment. Six storage conditions (refrigeration [4 to 5 degrees C]; temperature abuse [6 to 10 degrees C]; room temperature [20 to 25 degrees C]; refrigerated with 0.1% sodium benzoate, 0.1% potassium sorbate, or both) were modeled. E. coli survival rate data for all three unpreserved cider storage conditions were highly peaked, and these data were fit to logistic distributions: ideal refrigeration, logistic (-0.061, 0.13); temperature abuse, logistic (-0.0982, 0.23); room temperature, logistic (-0.1, 0.29) and uniform (-4.3, -1.8), to model the very small chance of extremely high log CFU reductions. There were fewer published studies on refrigerated, preserved cider, and these smaller data sets were modeled with beta (4.27, 2.37) x 2.2 - 1.6, normal (-0.2, 0.13), and gamma (1.45, 0.6) distributions, respectively. Simulations were run to show the effect of storage on E. coli O157:H7 during the shelf life of apple cider. Under every storage condition, with and without preservatives, there was an overall decline in E. coli O157:H7 populations in cider, although a small fraction of the time a slight increase was seen.

  9. Hate Crimes and Stigma-Related Experiences among Sexual Minority Adults in the United States: Prevalence Estimates from a National Probability Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herek, Gregory M.

    2009-01-01

    Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or…

  10. Clinical features and outcome of T-lineage acute lymphoblastic leukemia in adults: a low initial white blood cell count, as well as a high count predict decreased survival rates.

    PubMed

    Yanada, Masamitsu; Jinnai, Itsuro; Takeuchi, Jin; Ueda, Takanori; Miyawaki, Shuichi; Tsuzuki, Motohiro; Hatta, Yoshihiro; Usui, Noriko; Wada, Hideho; Morii, Takeshi; Matsuda, Mitsuhiro; Kiyoi, Hitoshi; Okada, Masaya; Honda, Sumihisa; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Ohno, Ryuzo; Naoe, Tomoki

    2007-07-01

    Although biological and clinical features differ between B-lineage acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and T-lineage ALL (T-ALL), there have been few reports that focused on the prognosis for T-ALL in adults, primarily due to its rarity. Here, we studied the long-term outcomes and prognostic factors specific for adult T-ALL by combining patient data from the three prospective trials conducted by the Japan Adult Leukemia Study Group (JALSG). Among 559 patients whose immunophenotypes could be evaluated, 87 (15.6%) were identified as T-ALL. Of them, 66 patients (75.8%) achieved complete remission, and relapse occurred in 41 patients. With a median follow-up for surviving patients of 7.5 years, the probability of overall survival was 35.0% at 5 years. Risk factor analysis revealed that serum albumin levels, initial white blood cell (WBC) counts, and age had independent values for predicting survival. For WBC, not only the high-count group (50 x 10(9)l(-1) or higher), but also the low-count group (less than 3 x 10(9)l(-1)) showed a significantly lower survival rates than the intermediate-count group (p=0.0055 and 0.0037, respectively). Although our findings need confirmation, these results will be helpful in the identification of prognostically distinct subgroups within adult T-ALL.

  11. Geriatric assessment predicts survival for older adults receiving induction chemotherapy for acute myelogenous leukemia.

    PubMed

    Klepin, Heidi D; Geiger, Ann M; Tooze, Janet A; Kritchevsky, Stephen B; Williamson, Jeff D; Pardee, Timothy S; Ellis, Leslie R; Powell, Bayard L

    2013-05-23

    We investigated the predictive value of geriatric assessment (GA) on overall survival (OS) for older adults with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML). Consecutive patients ≥ 60 years with newly diagnosed AML and planned intensive chemotherapy were enrolled at a single institution. Pretreatment GA included evaluation of cognition, depression, distress, physical function (PF) (self-reported and objectively measured), and comorbidity. Objective PF was assessed using the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB, timed 4-m walk, chair stands, standing balance) and grip strength. Cox proportional hazards models were fit for each GA measure as a predictor of OS. Among 74 patients, the mean age was 70 years, and 78.4% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score ≤ 1. OS was significantly shorter for participants who screened positive for impairment in cognition and objectively measured PF. Adjusting for age, gender, ECOG score, cytogenetic risk group, myelodysplastic syndrome, and hemoglobin, impaired cognition (Modified Mini-Mental State Exam < 77) and impaired objective PF (SPPB < 9) were associated with worse OS. GA methods, with a focus on cognitive and PF, improve risk stratification and may inform interventions to improve outcomes for older AML patients.

  12. Geriatric assessment predicts survival for older adults receiving induction chemotherapy for acute myelogenous leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Geiger, Ann M.; Tooze, Janet A.; Kritchevsky, Stephen B.; Williamson, Jeff D.; Pardee, Timothy S.; Ellis, Leslie R.; Powell, Bayard L.

    2013-01-01

    We investigated the predictive value of geriatric assessment (GA) on overall survival (OS) for older adults with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML). Consecutive patients ≥ 60 years with newly diagnosed AML and planned intensive chemotherapy were enrolled at a single institution. Pretreatment GA included evaluation of cognition, depression, distress, physical function (PF) (self-reported and objectively measured), and comorbidity. Objective PF was assessed using the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB, timed 4-m walk, chair stands, standing balance) and grip strength. Cox proportional hazards models were fit for each GA measure as a predictor of OS. Among 74 patients, the mean age was 70 years, and 78.4% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score ≤ 1. OS was significantly shorter for participants who screened positive for impairment in cognition and objectively measured PF. Adjusting for age, gender, ECOG score, cytogenetic risk group, myelodysplastic syndrome, and hemoglobin, impaired cognition (Modified Mini-Mental State Exam < 77) and impaired objective PF (SPPB < 9) were associated with worse OS. GA methods, with a focus on cognitive and PF, improve risk stratification and may inform interventions to improve outcomes for older AML patients. PMID:23550038

  13. Determination of the compound nucleus survival probability Psurv for various "hot" fusion reactions based on the dynamical cluster-decay model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chopra, Sahila; Kaur, Arshdeep; Gupta, Raj K.

    2015-03-01

    After a successful attempt to define and determine recently the compound nucleus (CN) fusion/ formation probability PCN within the dynamical cluster-decay model (DCM), we introduce and estimate here for the first time the survival probability Psurv of CN against fission, again within the DCM. Calculated as the dynamical fragmentation process, Psurv is defined as the ratio of the evaporation residue (ER) cross section σER and the sum of σER and fusion-fission (ff) cross section σff, the CN formation cross section σCN, where each contributing fragmentation cross section is determined in terms of its formation and barrier penetration probabilities P0 and P . In DCM, the deformations up to hexadecapole and "compact" orientations for both in-plane (coplanar) and out-of-plane (noncoplanar) configurations are allowed. Some 16 "hot" fusion reactions, forming a CN of mass number ACN˜100 to superheavy nuclei, are analyzed for various different nuclear interaction potentials, and the variation of Psurv on CN excitation energy E*, fissility parameter χ , CN mass ACN, and Coulomb parameter Z1Z2 is investigated. Interesting results are that three groups, namely, weakly fissioning, radioactive, and strongly fissioning superheavy nuclei, are identified with Psurv, respectively, ˜1 ,˜10-6 , and ˜10-10 . For the weakly fissioning group (100

  14. Ingestion of Bt rice pollen does not reduce the survival or hypopharyngeal gland development of Apis mellifera adults.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuanyuan; Dai, Pingli; Chen, Xiuping; Romeis, Jörg; Shi, Jianrong; Peng, Yufa; Li, Yunhe

    2016-10-07

    Because of its ecological and economic importance, the honey bee Apis mellifera is commonly used to assess the environmental risk of insect-resistant, genetically modified plants. In the current laboratory study, feeding-exposure experiments were used to determine whether pollen from transgenic rice harms A. mellifera worker bee. In one experiment, the survival and mean acinus diameter of hypopharyngeal glands of adult bees were similar when bees were fed on pollen from Bt rice lines or from a non-Bt rice line, but bee survival was significantly reduced when they received pollen that was mixed with potassium arsenate as a positive control. In a second experiment, bee survival and hypopharyngeal gland development were not reduced when adult bees were fed on non-Bt pollen and a sucrose solution supplemented with Cry2A at 400 µg/g, Cry1C at 50 µg/g, or bovine serum albumin (BSA) at 400 µg/g diet, but bee survival and hypopharyngeal gland development were reduced when the diet was supplemented with soybean trypsin inhibitor (SBTI) as a positive control. In both experiments, the uptake of Cry proteins by adult bees was confirmed. Overall, the results indicate that the planting of Bt rice lines expressing Cry2A or Cry1C protein poses a negligible risk to A. mellifera worker bees. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  15. Surviving submerged--Setal tracheal gills for gas exchange in adult rheophilic diving beetles.

    PubMed

    Kehl, Siegfried; Dettner, Konrad

    2009-11-01

    The gas exchange in adult diving beetles (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae) relies on a subelytral air store, which has to be renewed in regular intervals at the water surface. The dive duration varies from a few minutes to 24 h depending on the species, activity, and temperature. However, some species remain submerged for several weeks. Stygobiont species do not ascend to the surface and gas exchange of these species remains unclear, but it is assumed that they require air filled voids for respiration or they use cutaneous respiration. In this study, we investigate the gas exchange in the running water diving beetle Deronectes aubei, which survive submerged for over 6 weeks. The diffusion distance through the cuticle is too great for cutaneous respiration. Therefore, the dissolved oxygen uptake of submerged beetles was determined and an oxygen uptake via the rich tracheated elytra was observed. Fine structure analyses (SEM and TEM) of the beetles showed tracheated setae mainly on the elytral surface, which acts as tracheal gills. Prevention of the air bubble formation at the tip of the abdomen, which normally act as physical gill in Dytiscidae, resulted in no effect in oxygen uptake in D. aubei, but this was the sole way for a submerged Hydroporus palustris to get oxygen. The setal gas exchange technique explains the restriction of D. aubei to rivers and brooks with high oxygen concentration and it may also be used by subterran living diving beetles, which lack access to atmospheric oxygen. The existence of setal tracheal gills in species in running water which are often found in the hyporheic zone and in stygobiont species supports the known evolution of stygobiont Dytiscidae from species of the hyporheic zone. For species in running water, setal tracheal gills could be seen as an adaptation to avoid drifting downstream by the current.

  16. Specific inhibition of TRPV4 enhances retinal ganglion cell survival in adult porcine retinal explants.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Linnéa; Arnér, Karin; Ghosh, Fredrik

    2017-01-01

    Signaling through the polymodal cation channel Transient Receptor Potential Vanilloid 4 (TRPV4) has been implicated in retinal neuronal degeneration. To further outline the involvement of this channel in this process, we here explore modulation of Transient Receptor Potential Vanilloid 4 (TRPV4) activity on neuronal health and glial activation in an in vitro model of retinal degeneration. For this purpose, adult porcine retinal explants were cultured using a previously established standard protocol for up to 5 days with specific TRPV4 agonist GSK1016790A (GSK), or specific antagonist RN-1734, or culture medium only. Glial and neuronal cell health were evaluated by a battery of immunohistochemical markers, as well as morphological staining. Specific inhibition of TRPV4 by RN-1734 significantly enhanced ganglion cell survival, improved the maintenance of the retinal laminar architecture, reduced apoptotic cell death and attenuated the gliotic response as well as preserved the expression of TRPV4 in the plexiform layers and ganglion cells. In contrast, culture controls, as well as specimens treated with GSK, displayed rapid remodeling and neurodegeneration as well as a downregulation of TRPV4 and the Müller cell homeostatic mediator glutamine synthetase. Our results indicate that TRPV4 signaling is an important contributor to the retinal degeneration in this model, affecting neuronal cell health and glial homeostasis. The finding that pharmacological inhibition of the receptor significantly attenuates neuronal degeneration and gliosis in vitro, suggests that TRPV4 signaling may be an interesting pharmaceutical target to explore for treatment of retinal degenerative disease.

  17. Behavioural Effects of Adult Vitamin D Deficiency in BALB/c Mice Are not Associated with Proliferation or Survival of Neurons in the Adult Hippocampus

    PubMed Central

    Groves, Natalie J.; Bradford, DanaKai; Sullivan, Robert K. P.; Conn, Kyna-Anne; Aljelaify, Rasha Fahad; McGrath, John J.; Burne, Thomas H. J.

    2016-01-01

    Epidemiological studies have shown that up to one third of adults have insufficient levels of vitamin D and there is an association between low vitamin D concentrations and adverse brain outcomes, such as depression. Vitamin D has been shown to be involved in processes associated with neurogenesis during development. Therefore, the aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that adult vitamin D (AVD) deficiency in BALB/c mice was associated with (a) adult hippocampal neurogenesis at baseline, b) following 6 weeks of voluntary wheel running and (c) a depressive-like phenotype on the forced swim test (FST), which may be linked to alterations in hippocampal neurogenesis. We assessed proliferation and survival of adult born hippocampal neurons by counting the number of cells positive for Ki67 and doublecortin (DCX), and incorporation of 5-Bromo-2’-Deoxyuridine (BrdU) within newly born mature neurons using immunohistochemistry. There were no significant effects of diet on number of Ki67+, DCX+ or BrdU+ cells in the dentate gyrus. All mice showed significantly increased number of Ki67+ cells and BrdU incorporation, and decreased immobility time in the FST, after voluntary wheel running. A significant correlation was found in control mice between immobility time in the FST and level of hippocampal neurogenesis, however, no such correlation was found for AVD-deficient mice. We conclude that AVD deficiency was not associated with impaired proliferation or survival of adult born neurons in BALB/c mice and that the impact on rodent behaviour may not be due to altered neurogenesis per se, but to altered function of new hippocampal neurons or processes independent of adult neurogenesis. PMID:27043014

  18. Behavioural Effects of Adult Vitamin D Deficiency in BALB/c Mice Are not Associated with Proliferation or Survival of Neurons in the Adult Hippocampus.

    PubMed

    Groves, Natalie J; Bradford, DanaKai; Sullivan, Robert K P; Conn, Kyna-Anne; Aljelaify, Rasha Fahad; McGrath, John J; Burne, Thomas H J

    2016-01-01

    Epidemiological studies have shown that up to one third of adults have insufficient levels of vitamin D and there is an association between low vitamin D concentrations and adverse brain outcomes, such as depression. Vitamin D has been shown to be involved in processes associated with neurogenesis during development. Therefore, the aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that adult vitamin D (AVD) deficiency in BALB/c mice was associated with (a) adult hippocampal neurogenesis at baseline, b) following 6 weeks of voluntary wheel running and (c) a depressive-like phenotype on the forced swim test (FST), which may be linked to alterations in hippocampal neurogenesis. We assessed proliferation and survival of adult born hippocampal neurons by counting the number of cells positive for Ki67 and doublecortin (DCX), and incorporation of 5-Bromo-2'-Deoxyuridine (BrdU) within newly born mature neurons using immunohistochemistry. There were no significant effects of diet on number of Ki67+, DCX+ or BrdU+ cells in the dentate gyrus. All mice showed significantly increased number of Ki67+ cells and BrdU incorporation, and decreased immobility time in the FST, after voluntary wheel running. A significant correlation was found in control mice between immobility time in the FST and level of hippocampal neurogenesis, however, no such correlation was found for AVD-deficient mice. We conclude that AVD deficiency was not associated with impaired proliferation or survival of adult born neurons in BALB/c mice and that the impact on rodent behaviour may not be due to altered neurogenesis per se, but to altered function of new hippocampal neurons or processes independent of adult neurogenesis.

  19. Methoprene effects on survival and reproductive performance of adult female and male Aedes aegypti.

    PubMed

    Brabant, Peter Joseph; Dobson, Stephen L

    2013-12-01

    Methoprene is a juvenile hormone analog commonly used for the control of mosquito larvae. It acts through interference with normal metamorphosis, resulting in mortality prior to and during adult emergence. Methoprene is not commonly used for the control of adult mosquitoes, due to an absence of acute effects. Here, we have evaluated for chronic effects caused by the exposure of adult Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to methoprene. We applied methoprene to adults, both through 1) topical application to the abdomen and 2) as an aerosol, examining for treatment effects on ovary development, adult longevity, and fecundity. The results demonstrate that relatively high doses are required to affect adult survivorship. In contrast, significant impacts on both fecundity and egg hatch were observed in females treated at the lower dosages. We discuss the results in relation to autocidal strategies for mosquito control in which the release of fecund females is to be avoided.

  20. Supratentorial hemispheric ependymomas: an analysis of 109 adults for survival and prognostic factors.

    PubMed

    Hollon, Todd; Nguyen, Vincent; Smith, Brandon W; Lewis, Spencer; Junck, Larry; Orringer, Daniel A

    2016-08-01

    OBJECTIVE Survival rates and prognostic factors for supratentorial hemispheric ependymomas have not been determined. The authors therefore designed a retrospective study to determine progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and prognostic factors for hemispheric ependymomas. METHODS The study population consisted of 8 patients from our institution and 101 patients from the literature with disaggregated survival information (n = 109). Patient age, sex, tumor side, tumor location, extent of resection (EOR), tumor grade, postoperative chemotherapy, radiation, time to recurrence, and survival were recorded. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were completed to determine survival rates and prognostic factors. RESULTS Anaplastic histology/WHO Grade III tumors were identified in 62% of cases and correlated with older age. Three-, 5-, and 10-year PFS rates were 57%, 51%, and 42%, respectively. Three-, 5-, and 10-year OS rates were 77%, 71%, and 58%, respectively. EOR and tumor grade were identified on both Kaplan-Meier log-rank testing and univariate Cox proportional hazard models as prognostic for PFS and OS. Both EOR and tumor grade remained prognostic on multivariate analysis. Subtotal resection (STR) predicted a worse PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 4.764, p = 0.001) and OS (HR 4.216, p = 0.008). Subgroup survival analysis of patients with STR demonstrated a 5- and 10-year OS of 28% and 0%, respectively. WHO Grade III tumors also had worse PFS (HR 10.2, p = 0.004) and OS (HR 9.1, p = 0.035). Patients with WHO Grade III tumors demonstrated 5- and 10-year OS of 61% and 46%, respectively. Postoperative radiation was not prognostic for PFS or OS. CONCLUSIONS A high incidence of anaplastic histology was found in hemispheric ependymomas and was associated with older age. EOR and tumor grade were prognostic factors for PFS and OS on multivariate analysis. STR or WHO Grade III pathology, or both, predicted worse overall prognosis in patients

  1. Tissue Mercury Concentrations and Survival of Tree Swallow Embryos, Nestlings and Young Adult Females on a Contaminated Site.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Capwell E; Cristol, Daniel A

    2015-10-01

    Tree swallows nesting on mercury-contaminated sites along the South River in Virginia, USA were monitored for reproductive success. The bodies of nestlings found deceased in their nest boxes were collected, along with blood and feather samples from the adult parents and surviving siblings. We also measured hatching and fledging success of the clutches and the annual recapture rate of adults. We found that the body feathers of deceased nestlings contained significantly higher concentrations of mercury (12.89 ± 8.42 μg/g, n = 15) than those of nestlings that survived to fledge (7.41 ± 4.79 μg/g, n = 15). However, mothers of more successful clutches (>75 % hatching) did not differ in mercury concentrations from females with less successful clutches (<50 % hatching). Additionally, adult females breeding for the first time that returned to breed the following year did not differ in blood mercury from females of the same age that bred once but never returned. Our results suggest that mercury had its greatest effect on these songbirds during the nestling stage, whereas for embryos or first-time breeding females, other factors likely played larger roles in mortality.

  2. Sex disparity in childhood and young adult acute myeloid leukemia (AML) survival: Evidence from US population data.

    PubMed

    Hossain, Md Jobayer; Xie, Li

    2015-12-01

    Sex variation has been persistently investigated in studies concerning acute myeloid leukemia (AML) survival outcomes but has not been fully explored among pediatric and young adult AML patients. We detected sex difference in the survival of AML patients diagnosed at ages 0-24 years and explored distinct effects of sex across subgroups of age at diagnosis, race-ethnicity and AML subtypes utilizing the United States Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) population based dataset of 4865 patients diagnosed with AML between 1973 and 2012. Kaplan-Meier survival function, propensity scores and stratified Cox proportional hazards regression were used for data analyses. After controlling for other prognostic factors, females showed a significant survival advantage over their male counterparts, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.00-1.18). Compared to females, male patients had substantially increased risk of mortality in the following subgroups of: ages 20-24 years at diagnosis (aHR1.30), Caucasian (1.14), acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) (1.35), acute erythroid leukemia (AEL) (1.39), AML with inv(16)(p13.1q22) (2.57), AML with minimum differentiation (1.47); and had substantially decreased aHR in AML t(9;11)(p22;q23) (0.57) and AML with maturation (0.82). Overall, females demonstrated increased survival over males and this disparity was considerably large in patients ages 20-24 years at diagnosis, Caucasians, and in AML subtypes of AML inv(16), APL and AEL. In contrast, males with AML t(9;11)(p22;q23), AML with maturation and age at diagnosis of 10-14 years showed survival benefit. Further investigations are needed to detect the biological processes influencing the mechanisms of these interactions.

  3. Reduced Long-Term Relative Survival in Females and Younger Adults Undergoing Cardiac Surgery: A Prospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Enger, Tone Bull; Pleym, Hilde; Stenseth, Roar; Greiff, Guri; Wahba, Alexander; Videm, Vibeke

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To assess long-term survival and mortality in adult cardiac surgery patients. Methods 8,564 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery in Trondheim, Norway from 2000 until censoring 31.12.2014 were prospectively followed. Observed long-term mortality following surgery was compared to the expected mortality in the Norwegian population, matched on gender, age and calendar year. This enabled assessment of relative survival (observed/expected survival rates) and relative mortality (observed/expected deaths). Long-term mortality was compared across gender, age and surgical procedure. Predictors of reduced survival were assessed with multivariate analyses of observed and relative mortality. Results During follow-up (median 6.4 years), 2,044 patients (23.9%) died. The observed 30-day, 1-, 3- and 5-year mortality rates were 2.2%, 4.4%, 8.2% and 13.8%, respectively, and remained constant throughout the study period. Comparing observed mortality to that expected in a matched sample from the general population, patients undergoing cardiac surgery showed excellent survival throughout the first seven years of follow-up (relative survival ≥ 1). Subsequently, survival decreased, which was more pronounced in females and patients undergoing other procedures than isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Relative mortality was higher in younger age groups, females and patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR). The female survival advantage in the general population was obliterated (relative mortality ratio (RMR) 1.35 (1.19–1.54), p<0.001). Increasing observed long-term mortality seen with ageing was due to population risk, and younger age was independently associated with increased relative mortality (RMR per 5 years 0.81 (0.79–0.84), p<0.001)). Conclusions Cardiac surgery patients showed comparable survival to that expected in the general Norwegian population, underlining the benefits of cardiac surgery in appropriately selected patients. The

  4. Species differences in behavior and cell proliferation/survival in the adult brains of female meadow and prairie voles.

    PubMed

    Pan, Y; Liu, Y; Lieberwirth, C; Zhang, Z; Wang, Z

    2016-02-19

    Microtine rodents display diverse patterns of social organization and behaviors, and thus provide a useful model for studying the effects of the social environment on physiology and behavior. The current study compared the species differences and the effects of oxytocin (OT) on anxiety-like, social affiliation, and social recognition behaviors in female meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) and prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster). Furthermore, cell proliferation and survival in the brains of adult female meadow and prairie voles were compared. We found that female meadow voles displayed a higher level of anxiety-like behavior but lower levels of social affiliation and social recognition compared to female prairie voles. In addition, meadow voles showed lower levels of cell proliferation (measured by Ki67 staining) and cell survival (measured by BrdU staining) in the ventromedial hypothalamus (VMH) and amygdala (AMY), but not the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus (DG), than prairie voles. Interestingly, the numbers of new cells in the VMH and AMY, but not DG, also correlated with anxiety-like, social affiliation, and social recognition behaviors in a brain region-specific manner. Finally, central OT treatment (200 ng/kg, icv) did not lead to changes in behavior or cell proliferation/survival in the brain. Together, these data indicate a potential role of cell proliferation/survival in selected brain areas on different behaviors between vole species with distinct life strategies.

  5. Species differences in behavior and cell proliferation/survival in the adult brains of female meadow and prairie voles

    PubMed Central

    Pan, Yongliang; Liu, Yan; Lieberwirth, Claudia; Zhang, Zhibin; Wang, Zuoxin

    2016-01-01

    Microtine rodents display diverse patterns of social organization and behaviors, and thus provide a useful model for studying the effects of the social environment on physiology and behavior. The current study compared the species differences and the effects of oxytocin (OT) on anxiety-like, social affiliation, and social recognition behaviors in female meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) and prairie voles (M. ochrogaster). Furthermore, cell proliferation and survival in the brains of adult female meadow and prairie voles were compared. We found that female meadow voles displayed a higher level of anxiety-like behavior but lower levels of social affiliation and social recognition compared to female prairie voles. In addition, meadow voles showed lower levels of cell proliferation (measured by Ki67 staining) and cell survival (measured by BrdU staining) in the ventromedial hypothalamus (VMH) and amygdala (AMY), but not the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus (DG), than prairie voles. Interestingly, the numbers of new cells in the VMH and AMY, but not DG, also correlated with anxiety-like, social affiliation, and social recognition behaviors in a brain region-specific manner. Finally, central OT treatment (200 ng/kg, icv) did not lead to changes in behavior or cell proliferation/survival in the brain. Together, these data indicate a potential role of cell proliferation/survival in selected brain areas on different behaviors between vole species with distinct life strategies. PMID:26708743

  6. No survival benefit to gaining private health insurance coverage for post-lung transplant care in adults with cystic fibrosis.

    PubMed

    Tumin, Dmitry; Foraker, Randi E; Tobias, Joseph D; Hayes, Don

    2016-03-01

    The use of public insurance is associated with diminished survival in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) following lung transplantation. No data exist on benefits of gaining private health insurance for post-transplant care among such patients previously using public insurance. The United Network for Organ Sharing database was used to identify first-time lung transplant recipients participating in Medicare or Medicaid, diagnosed with CF, and transplanted between 2005 and 2015. Survival outcomes were compared between recipients gaining private insurance after transplantation and those maintaining public coverage throughout follow-up. Since implementation of the lung allocation score, 575 adults with CF received lung transplantation funded by Medicare or Medicaid and contributed data on insurance status post-transplant. There were 128 (22%) patients who gained private insurance. Multivariable analysis of time-varying insurance status found no survival benefit of gaining private insurance (HR = 0.822; 95% CI = 0.525, 1.286; p = 0.390). Further analysis demonstrated that resuming public insurance coverage was detrimental, relative to gaining and keeping private insurance (HR = 2.315; 95% CI = 1.020, 5.258; p = 0.045). Survival disadvantages of lung transplant recipients with CF who have public health insurance were not ameliorated by a switch to private coverage for post-transplant care.

  7. Clinical and pathological prognostic markers for survival in adult patients with post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorders in solid transplant.

    PubMed

    Oton, Ana B; Wang, Hong; Leleu, Xavier; Melhem, Mona F; George, Diane; Lacasce, Ann; Foon, Kenneth; Ghobrial, Irene M

    2008-09-01

    We sought to determine the clinical and immunohistopathological prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in adult patients with post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorders (PTLDs). Eighty-four patients diagnosed with PTLDs between 1980 and 2004 at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center were identified. Immunohistochemical staining was performed on tumor tissue at the time of diagnosis for the following proteins: Bcl-2, Bcl-6, c-myc and p53. The median survival for all patients was 20.8 months, 95% CI: (7.4-77.6). On univariate analysis for OS, the following poor prognostic factors were identified: age at transplant >60 years (p = 0.024), multiorgan transplant (p = 0.019), ECOG > 2 (p < 0.0001), grafted organ involvement (p < 0.0001), extranodal disease (p = 0.011), early (<1 year) PTLDs (p < 0.0001), stage IV (p = 0.0017), EBV positive (p = 0.012) and elevated white blood count (p = 0.010). Good prognostic factors included ECOG<2 (p < 0.0001), late (>1 year) PTLDs (p = 0.002), early stage at diagnosis (stages I and II, p = 0.005), nodal disease (p = 0.0053), monomorphic disease (0.0034), initial immunosuppression reduction (p = 0.0015) and use of rituximab (p = 0.045). Bcl-2 but not Bcl-6, c-myc, or p53 correlated with poor survival, p = 0.0036. This study identifies new clinical and pathological markers for poor survival in PTLDs.

  8. Gene polymorphisms in folate metabolizing enzymes in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia: effects on methotrexate-related toxicity and survival

    PubMed Central

    Ongaro, Alessia; De Mattei, Monica; Della Porta, Matteo Giovanni; Rigolin, GianMatteo; Ambrosio, Cristina; Di Raimondo, Francesco; Pellati, Agnese; Masieri, Federica Francesca; Caruso, Angelo; Catozzi, Linda; Gemmati, Donato

    2009-01-01

    Background The antifolate agent methotrexate is an important component of maintenance therapy in acute lymphoblastic leukemia, although methotrexate-related toxicity is often a reason for interruption of chemotherapy. Prediction of toxicity is difficult because of inter-individual variability susceptibility to antileukemic agents. Methotrexate interferes with folate metabolism leading to depletion of reduced folates. Design and Methods The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of polymorphisms for folate metabolizing enzymes with respect to toxicity and survival in adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated with methotrexate maintenance therapy. To this purpose, we evaluated possible associations between genotype and hematologic and non-hematologic toxicity and effects on survival at 2 years of follow-up in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Results Polymorphisms in the genes encoding for methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR 677C>T) and in dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR 19 bp deletion) significantly increased the risk of hepatotoxicity in single (odds ratio 5.23, 95% confidence interval 1.13–21.95 and odds ratio 4.57, 95% confidence interval 1.01–20.77, respectively) and in combined analysis (odds ratio 6.82, 95% confidence interval 1.38–33.59). MTHFR 677C>T also increased the risk of leukopenia and gastrointestinal toxicity, whilst thymidylate synthase 28 bp repeat polymorphism increased the risk of anemia (odds ratio 8.48, 95% confidence interval 2.00–36.09). Finally, patients with MTHFR 677TT had a decreased overall survival rate (hazard ratio 2.37, 95% confidence interval 1.46–8.45). Conclusions Genotyping of folate polymorphisms might be useful in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia to optimize methotrexate therapy, reducing the associated toxicity with possible effects on survival. PMID:19648163

  9. The Impact of Physical, Intellectual and Social Impairments on Survival in Adults with Intellectual Disability: A Population-Based Register Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tyrer, Freya; Smith, Lucy K.; McGrother, Catherine W.; Taub, Nicholas A.

    2007-01-01

    Background: Research into factors associated with survival in adults with intellectual disability is limited and no studies have controlled for changes in these factors over time. Material and Methods: All adults aged greater than or equal to 20 years with moderate to profound intellectual disability (approximate IQ less than 50) using specialist…

  10. Winter survival of adult female harlequin ducks in relation to history of contamination by the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esler, Daniel; Schmutz, J.A.; Jarvis, R.L.; Mulcahy, D.M.

    2000-01-01

    Harlequin duck (Histrionicus histrionicus) life-history characteristics make their populations particularly vulnerable to perturbations during nonbreeding periods. The 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill was a major perturbation to nonbreeding habitats of harlequin ducks in Prince William Sound, Alaska, which resulted in population injury. To assess the status of population recovery from the oil spill and to evaluate factors potentially constraining full recovery, we used radiotelemetry to examine survival of adult female harlequin ducks during winters of 1995-96, 1996-97, and 1997-98. We implanted 294 harlequin ducks (154 and 140 in oiled and unoiled areas, respectively) with transmitters and tracked their signals from aircraft during October through March. We examined variation in survival rates relative to area and season (early, mid, and late winter) through comparisons of models using Akaike's information criterion (AIC(c)) values. The 3 models best supported by the data indicated that survival of birds in oiled areas was lower than in unoiled areas. Inclusion of standardized body mass during wing molt in the 3 best models did not improve their fit, indicating that body mass during wing molt did not affect subsequent winter survival. In the model that best fit our data, survival was high in early winter for both areas, lower during mid and late winter seasons, and lowest in oiled areas during mid winter. Cumulative winter survival estimated from this model was 78.0% (SE = 3.3%) in oiled areas and 83.7% (SE = 2.9%) in unoiled areas. We determined that area differences in survival were more likely related to oiling history than intrinsic geographic differences. Based on a demographic model, area differences in survival offer a likely mechanism for observed declines in populations on oiled areas. Concurrent studies indicated that harlequin ducks continued to be exposed to residual Exxon Valdez oil as much as 9 years after the spill. We suggest that oil exposure

  11. Factors Affecting the Survival of Upstream Migrant Adult Salmonids in the Columbia River Basin : Recovery Issues for Threatened and Endangered Snake River Salmon : Technical Report 9 of 11.

    SciTech Connect

    Dauble, Dennis D.; Mueller, Robert P.

    1993-06-01

    The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) is developing conservation planning documentation to support the National Marine Fisheries Service`s (NMFS) recovery plan for Columbia Basin salmonid stocks that are currently listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Information from the conservation planning documentation will be used as a partial scientific basis for identifying alternative conservation strategies and to make recommendations toward conserving, rebuilding, and ultimately removing these salmon stocks from the list of endangered species. This report describes the adult upstream survival study, a synthesis of biological analyses related to conditions affecting the survival of adult upstream migrant salmonids in the Columbia River system. The objective of the adult upstream survival study was to analyze existing data related to increasing the survival of adult migrant salmonids returning to the Snake River system. The fate and accountability of each stock during its upstream migration period and the uncertainties associated with measurements of escapement and survival were evaluated. Operational measures that affected the survival of adult salmon were evaluated including existing conditions, augmented flows from upstream storage release, and drawdown of mainstem reservoirs. The potential impacts and benefits of these measures to each ESA stock were, also described based on considerations of species behavior and run timing.

  12. RB regulates the production and the survival of newborn neurons in the embryonic and adult dentate gyrus.

    PubMed

    Vandenbosch, Renaud; Clark, Alysen; Fong, Bensun C; Omais, Saad; Jaafar, Carine; Dugal-Tessier, Delphie; Dhaliwal, Jagroop; Lagace, Diane C; Park, David S; Ghanem, Noël; Slack, Ruth S

    2016-11-01

    In mammals, hippocampal dentate gyrus granule cells (DGCs) constitute a particular neuronal population produced both during embryogenesis and adult life, and play key roles in neural plasticity and memory. However, the molecular mechanisms regulating neurogenesis in the dentate lineage throughout development and adulthood are still not well understood. The Retinoblastoma protein (RB), a transcriptional repressor primarily involved in cell cycle control and cell death, plays crucial roles during cortical development but its function in the formation and maintenance of DGCs remains unknown. Here, we show that loss of RB during embryogenesis induces massive ectopic proliferation and delayed cell cycle exit of young DGCs specifically at late developmental stages but without affecting stem cells. This phenotype was partially counterbalanced by increased cell death. Similarly, during adulthood, loss of RB causes ectopic proliferation of newborn DGCs and dramatically impairs their survival. These results demonstrate a crucial role for RB in the generation and the survival of DGCs in the embryonic and the adult brain. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. In vitro cultivation of anisakis simplex: pepsin increases survival and moulting from fourth larval to adult stage.

    PubMed

    Iglesias, L; Valero, A; Benítez, R; Adroher, F J

    2001-09-01

    This paper describes the in vitro cultivation of the 3rd-larval stage (L3) of Anisakis simplex to adulthood in a much simpler and easier to prepare medium than those described to date. The adult males obtained are between 3.8 and 6.5 cm long and the females between 4.5 and 8.0 cm. Some individually cultivated females laid eggs which had an average size of 44.4 x 50.5 microm. The culture conditions were as follows: medium RPMI-1640 supplemented with 20% heat-inactivated fetal bovine serum and 1% commercial pepsin, at pH 4.0 and a temperature of 37 degrees C, and in air atmosphere with 5% CO2. The pepsin was found to be the key to the success of the culture. The average survival of the worms in the culture increased from 50 to 88 days, due to the fact that the survival of the adults practically doubled (increasing by 1.9 times). Furthermore, the number of worms that completed the 4th moulting (M4) increased by 4.2 times, from 22.9 to 95.6%. This culture medium may facilitate, due to its simplicity, the study of anisakids, or at least of A. simplex, constituting another step towards achieving a complete in vitro life-cycle for these parasites.

  14. Lmx1a and Lmx1b regulate mitochondrial functions and survival of adult midbrain dopaminergic neurons

    PubMed Central

    Doucet-Beaupré, Hélène; Gilbert, Catherine; Profes, Marcos Schaan; Chabrat, Audrey; Pacelli, Consiglia; Giguère, Nicolas; Rioux, Véronique; Deng, Qiaolin; Laguna, Ariadna; Ericson, Johan; Perlmann, Thomas; Ang, Siew-Lan; Cicchetti, Francesca; Parent, Martin; Trudeau, Louis-Eric; Lévesque, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The LIM-homeodomain transcription factors Lmx1a and Lmx1b play critical roles during the development of midbrain dopaminergic progenitors, but their functions in the adult brain remain poorly understood. We show here that sustained expression of Lmx1a and Lmx1b is required for the survival of adult midbrain dopaminergic neurons. Strikingly, inactivation of Lmx1a and Lmx1b recreates cellular features observed in Parkinson’s disease. We found that Lmx1a/b control the expression of key genes involved in mitochondrial functions, and their ablation results in impaired respiratory chain activity, increased oxidative stress, and mitochondrial DNA damage. Lmx1a/b deficiency caused axonal pathology characterized by α-synuclein+ inclusions, followed by a progressive loss of dopaminergic neurons. These results reveal the key role of these transcription factors beyond the early developmental stages and provide mechanistic links between mitochondrial dysfunctions, α-synuclein aggregation, and the survival of dopaminergic neurons. PMID:27407143

  15. Anopheles gambiae densovirus (AgDNV) has negligible effects on adult survival and transcriptome of its mosquito host.

    PubMed

    Ren, Xiaoxia; Hughes, Grant L; Niu, Guodong; Suzuki, Yasutsugu; Rasgon, Jason L

    2014-01-01

    Mosquito densoviruses (DNVs) are candidate agents for paratransgenic control of malaria and other vector-borne diseases. Unlike other mosquito DNVs, the Anopheles gambiae DNV (AgDNV) is non-pathogenic to larval mosquitoes. However, the cost of infection upon adults and the molecular mechanisms underpinning infection in the mosquito host are unknown. Using life table analysis, we show that AgDNV infection has minimal effects on An. gambiae survival (no significant effect in 2 replicates and a slight 2 day survival decrease in the third replicate). Using microarrays, we show that AgDNV has very minimal effect on the adult mosquito transcriptome, with only 4-15 genes differentially regulated depending on the statistical criteria imposed. The minimal impact upon global transcription provides some mechanistic understanding of lack of virus pathogenicity, suggesting a long co-evolutionary history that has shifted towards avirulence. From an applied standpoint, lack of strong induced fitness costs makes AgDNV an attractive agent for paratransgenic malaria control.

  16. Anopheles gambiae densovirus (AgDNV) has negligible effects on adult survival and transcriptome of its mosquito host

    PubMed Central

    Niu, Guodong; Suzuki, Yasutsugu

    2014-01-01

    Mosquito densoviruses (DNVs) are candidate agents for paratransgenic control of malaria and other vector-borne diseases. Unlike other mosquito DNVs, the Anopheles gambiae DNV (AgDNV) is non-pathogenic to larval mosquitoes. However, the cost of infection upon adults and the molecular mechanisms underpinning infection in the mosquito host are unknown. Using life table analysis, we show that AgDNV infection has minimal effects on An. gambiae survival (no significant effect in 2 replicates and a slight 2 day survival decrease in the third replicate). Using microarrays, we show that AgDNV has very minimal effect on the adult mosquito transcriptome, with only 4–15 genes differentially regulated depending on the statistical criteria imposed. The minimal impact upon global transcription provides some mechanistic understanding of lack of virus pathogenicity, suggesting a long co-evolutionary history that has shifted towards avirulence. From an applied standpoint, lack of strong induced fitness costs makes AgDNV an attractive agent for paratransgenic malaria control. PMID:25279264

  17. The effect of larval and adult nutrition on survival and fecundity of dengue vector Aedes albopictus Skuse (Diptera: Culicidae).

    PubMed

    Yamany, Abeer S; Adham, Fatma K

    2014-08-01

    The effect of larval and adult nutrition on survival and fecundity of the dengue vector Aedes albopictus Skuse (Diptera: Culicidae) were studied under laboratory conditions, the energy for the physiological activities for both male and female mosquitoes is provided largely by their reserves during larval stage and affected by adult diets. Two groups of larvae (A, B) were reared at 27 ± 3 degrees C, 70-80% R.H. and DL. 12: 12. Group (A) with 200 larvae (high larval diet) and Group (B) with 600 larvae (low larval diet). Ae. albopictus exhibited increased fecundity and egg hatch success. Immature development was quick. Immature survival was high, with lowest rate in the pupal stage. Highest longevity was observed in large females fed water + 10% sucrose solution (29.571 ± 0.415 days) while the lowest one was (1.3 ± 0.132 days) in starved small females. Large females have significantly (P < 0.001) higher fecundity than smaller females, regardless of whether the females were provided 10% sucrose solution or not (524 ± 0.203 eggs/group 159.714 ± 0.1997 eggs/group), respectively. The addition of 10% sucrose solution significantly (P < 0.001) increase the fecundity regardless of whether large or small females (657.9 ± 0.2198 eggs/group, 242.429 ± 0.119 eggs/group), respectively.

  18. Nuclear factor of activated T cells (NFATc4) is required for BDNF-dependent survival of adult-born neurons and spatial memory formation in the hippocampus.

    PubMed

    Quadrato, Giorgia; Benevento, Marco; Alber, Stefanie; Jacob, Carolin; Floriddia, Elisa M; Nguyen, Tuan; Elnaggar, Mohamed Y; Pedroarena, Christine M; Molkentin, Jeffrey D; Di Giovanni, Simone

    2012-06-05

    New neurons generated in the adult dentate gyrus are constantly integrated into the hippocampal circuitry and activated during encoding and recall of new memories. Despite identification of extracellular signals that regulate survival and integration of adult-born neurons such as neurotrophins and neurotransmitters, the nature of the intracellular modulators required to transduce those signals remains elusive. Here, we provide evidence of the expression and transcriptional activity of nuclear factor of activated T cell c4 (NFATc4) in hippocampal progenitor cells. We show that NFATc4 calcineurin-dependent activity is required selectively for survival of adult-born neurons in response to BDNF signaling. Indeed, cyclosporin A injection and stereotaxic delivery of the BDNF scavenger TrkB-Fc in the mouse dentate gyrus reduce the survival of hippocampal adult-born neurons in wild-type but not in NFATc4(-/-) mice and do not affect the net rate of neural precursor proliferation and their fate commitment. Furthermore, associated with the reduced survival of adult-born neurons, the absence of NFATc4 leads to selective defects in LTP and in the encoding of hippocampal-dependent spatial memories. Thus, our data demonstrate that NFATc4 is essential in the regulation of adult hippocampal neurogenesis and identify NFATc4 as a central player of BDNF-driven prosurvival signaling in hippocampal adult-born neurons.

  19. Giant aorto-pulmonary collaterals in pulmonary atresia and ventricular septal defect: long-term survival in unoperated adults.

    PubMed

    Spaziani, Gaia; Favilli, Silvia; Fonda, Claudio; Chiappa, Enrico

    2013-08-01

    The association of pulmonary atresia and ventricular septal defect (PA/VSD) can be considered the most severe form of tetralogy of Fallot. The main feature of this congenital heart disease is represented by discontinuity between the right ventricle and pulmonary trunk or its branches; the anatomy of central pulmonary arteries is often abnormal, consequently the type and the amount of sources of pulmonary blood flow are variable. Due to evolution in surgical techniques, definitive correction is now also considered in more complex cases. A small rate of unoperated patients with PA/VSD can survive until adulthood and the arterial blood supply to the lungs, provided by major aorto-pulmonary collateral arteries (MAPCAs), is one of the main determinants of survival. We report two unoperated cases of PA/VSD and MAPCAs with long-term survival. Giant MAPCAs can occasionally be found by chest radiography in adults with unrepaired PA/VSD. Moreover, non-invasive assessment of the pulmonary arterial bed with computer tomography or MRI is helpful in these patients during follow-up. Finally, we discuss the use of oral anticoagulants and/or 5-phosphodiesterase inhibitors in these patients.

  20. Adding chemo after radiation treatment improves survival for adults with a type of brain tumor

    Cancer.gov

    Adults with low-grade gliomas, a form of brain tumor, who received chemotherapy following completion of radiation therapy lived longer than patients who received radiation therapy alone, according to long-term follow-up results from a NIH-supported random

  1. Impact of floral feeding on adult Drosophila suzukii survival and nutrient status

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Drosophila suzukii, spotted wing drosophila, is a serious pest of small fruits and cherries in many regions of the world. While host usage has been well studied at the ovipositional and larval feeding stages, little is known about the feeding ecology of adults. This study addressed the impact of fee...

  2. Personal and Family Survival. Civil Defense Adult Education Course Student Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Office of Civil Defense (DOD), Washington, DC.

    A manual providing general orientation on the subject of United States civil defense is presented. It can serve as a home reference and as a tool for an adult education class. The nine chapters are: U.S. Civil Defense, Modern Weapons and Radioactive Fallout, Public Fallout Shelters, Fallout Shelter Occupancy, Fallout Protection at Home, Community…

  3. Probability and amounts of yogurt intake are differently affected by sociodemographic, economic, and lifestyle factors in adults and the elderly-results from a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Possa, Gabriela; de Castro, Michelle Alessandra; Marchioni, Dirce Maria Lobo; Fisberg, Regina Mara; Fisberg, Mauro

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this population-based cross-sectional health survey (N = 532) was to investigate the factors associated with the probability and amounts of yogurt intake in Brazilian adults and the elderly. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain data on demographics, socioeconomic information, presence of morbidities and lifestyle and anthropometric characteristics. Food intake was evaluated using two nonconsecutive 24-hour dietary recalls and a Food Frequency Questionnaire. Approximately 60% of the subjects were classified as yogurt consumers. In the logistic regression model, yogurt intake was associated with smoking (odds ratio [OR], 1.98), female sex (OR, 2.12), and age 20 to 39 years (OR, 3.11). Per capita family income and being a nonsmoker were factors positively associated with the amount of yogurt consumption (coefficients, 0.61 and 3.73, respectively), whereas the level of education of the head of household was inversely associated (coefficient, 0.61). In this study, probability and amounts of yogurt intake are differently affected by demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle factors in adults and the elderly.

  4. Human affection exchange: VI. Further tests of reproductive probability as a predictor of men's affection with their adult sons.

    PubMed

    Floyd, Kory; Sargent, Jack E; Di Corcia, Mark

    2004-04-01

    The authors examined the communication of affection in men's relationships with their fathers. Drawing from Affection Exchange Theory, the authors advanced four predictions: (a) heterosexual men receive more affection from their own fathers than do homosexual or bisexual men, (b) fathers communicate affection to their sons more through supportive activities than through direct verbal statements or nonverbal gestures, (c) affectionate communication between fathers and sons is linearly related to closeness and interpersonal involvement between them, and (d) fathers' awareness of their sons' sexual orientation is associated with the amount of affection that the fathers communicate to them. Participants were 170 adult men who completed questionnaires regarding affectionate communication in their relationships with their fathers. Half of the men were self-identified as exclusively heterosexual, and the other half were self-identified as exclusively homosexual or bisexual. The results supported all predictions substantially.

  5. Exogenous Modulation of Retinoic Acid Signaling Affects Adult RGC Survival in the Frog Visual System after Optic Nerve Injury

    PubMed Central

    Duprey-Díaz, Mildred V.; Blagburn, Jonathan M.; Blanco, Rosa E.

    2016-01-01

    After lesions to the mammalian optic nerve, the great majority of retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) die before their axons have even had a chance to regenerate. Frog RGCs, on the other hand, suffer only an approximately 50% cell loss, and we have previously investigated the mechanisms by which the application of growth factors can increase their survival rate. Retinoic acid (RA) is a vitamin A-derived lipophilic molecule that plays major roles during development of the nervous system. The RA signaling pathway is also present in parts of the adult nervous system, and components of it are upregulated after injury in peripheral nerves but not in the CNS. Here we investigate whether RA signaling affects long-term RGC survival at 6 weeks after axotomy. Intraocular injection of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), the retinoic acid receptor (RAR) type-α agonist AM80, the RARβ agonist CD2314, or the RARγ agonist CD1530, returned axotomized RGC numbers to almost normal levels. On the other hand, inhibition of RA synthesis with disulfiram, or of RAR receptors with the pan-RAR antagonist Ro-41-5253, or the RARβ antagonist LE135E, greatly reduced the survival of the axotomized neurons. Axotomy elicited a strong activation of the MAPK, STAT3 and AKT pathways; this activation was prevented by disulfiram or by RAR antagonists. Finally, addition of exogenous ATRA stimulated the activation of the first two of these pathways. Future experiments will investigate whether these strong survival-promoting effects of RA are mediated via the upregulation of neurotrophins. PMID:27611191

  6. Age-Associated ALU Element Instability in White Blood Cells Is Linked to Lower Survival in Elderly Adults: A Preliminary Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Venturelli, Massimo; Gross, Cole; Tarperi, Cantor; Schena, Federico; Reggiani, Carlo; Naro, Fabio; Pedrinolla, Anna; Monaco, Lucia; Richardson, Russell S.; Donato, Anthony J.

    2017-01-01

    Background ALU element instability could contribute to gene function variance in aging, and may partly explain variation in human lifespan. Objective To assess the role of ALU element instability in human aging and the potential efficacy of ALU element content as a marker of biological aging and survival. Design Preliminary cohort study. Methods We measured two high frequency ALU element subfamilies, ALU-J and ALU-Sx, by a single qPCR assay and compared ALU-J/Sx content in white blood cell (WBCs) and skeletal muscle cell (SMCs) biopsies from twenty-three elderly adults with sixteen healthy sex-balanced young adults; all-cause survival rates of elderly adults predicted by ALU-J/Sx content in both tissues; and cardiovascular disease (CVD)- and cancer-specific survival rates of elderly adults predicted by ALU-J/Sx content in both tissues, as planned subgroup analyses. Results We found greater ALU-J/Sx content variance in WBCs from elderly adults than young adults (P < 0.001) with no difference in SMCs (P = 0.94). Elderly adults with low WBC ALU-J/Sx content had worse four-year all-cause and CVD-associated survival than those with high ALU-J/Sx content (both P = 0.03 and hazard ratios (HR) ≥ 3.40), while WBC ALU-J/Sx content had no influence on cancer-associated survival (P = 0.42 and HR = 0.74). SMC ALU-J/Sx content had no influence on all-cause, CVD- or cancer -associated survival (all P ≥ 0.26; HR ≤ 2.07). Conclusions These initial findings demonstrate that ALU element instability occurs with advanced age in WBCs, but not SMCs, and imparts greater risk of all-cause mortality that is likely driven by an increased risk for CVD and not cancer. PMID:28060910

  7. Discovery of a Partner Affair and Major Depressive Episode in a Probability Sample of Married or Cohabiting Adults.

    PubMed

    Whisman, Mark A

    2016-12-01

    Prior research has found that humiliating marital events are associated with depression. Building on this research, the current study investigated the association between one specific humiliating marital event-discovering that one's partner had an affair-and past-year major depressive episode (MDE) in a probability sample of married or cohabiting men and women who were at high risk for depression based on the criterion that they scored below the midpoint on a measure of marital satisfaction (N = 227). Results indicate that (i) women were more likely than men to report discovering their partner had an affair in the prior 12 months; (ii) discovering a partner affair was associated with a higher prevalence of past-year MDE and a lower level of marital adjustment; and (iii) the association between discovering a partner affair and MDE remained statistically significant when holding constant demographic variables and marital adjustment. These results support continued investigation into the impact that finding out about an affair has on the mental health of the person discovering a partner affair.

  8. Hydroxyurea-Increased Fetal Hemoglobin Is Associated with Less Organ Damage and Longer Survival in Adults with Sickle Cell Anemia

    PubMed Central

    Fitzhugh, Courtney D.; Hsieh, Matthew M.; Allen, Darlene; Coles, Wynona A.; Seamon, Cassie; Ring, Michael; Zhao, Xiongce; Minniti, Caterina P.; Rodgers, Griffin P.; Schechter, Alan N.; Tisdale, John F.; Taylor, James G.

    2015-01-01

    Background Adults with sickle cell anemia (HbSS) are inconsistently treated with hydroxyurea. Objectives We retrospectively evaluated the effects of elevating fetal hemoglobin with hydroxyurea on organ damage and survival in patients enrolled in our screening study between 2001 and 2010. Methods An electronic medical record facilitated development of a database for comparison of study parameters based on hydroxyurea exposure and dose. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00011648. Results Three hundred eighty-three adults with homozygous sickle cell disease were analyzed with 59 deaths during study follow-up. Cox regression analysis revealed deceased subjects had more hepatic dysfunction (elevated alkaline phosphatase, Hazard Ratio = 1.005, 95% CI 1.003–1.006, p<0.0.0001), kidney dysfunction (elevated creatinine, Hazard Ratio = 1.13, 95% CI 1.00–1.27, p = 0.043), and cardiopulmonary dysfunction (elevated tricuspid jet velocity on echocardiogram, Hazard Ratio = 2.22, 1.23–4.02, p = 0.0082). Sixty-six percent of subjects were treated with hydroxyurea, although only 66% of those received a dose within the recommended therapeutic range. Hydroxyurea use was associated with improved survival (Hazard Ratio = 0.58, 95% CI 0.34–0.97, p = 0.040). This effect was most pronounced in those taking the recommended dose of 15–35 mg/kg/day (Hazard Ratio 0.36, 95% CI 0.17–0.73, p = 0.0050). Hydroxyurea use was not associated with changes in organ function over time. Further, subjects with higher fetal hemoglobin responses to hydroxyurea were more likely to survive (p = 0.0004). While alkaline phosphatase was lowest in patients with the best fetal hemoglobin response (95.4 versus 123.6, p = 0.0065 and 96.1 versus 113.6U/L, p = 0.041 at first and last visits, respectively), other markers of organ damage were not consistently improved over time in patients with the highest fetal hemoglobin levels. Conclusions Our data suggest that adults should be

  9. Spawning areas of eastern Baltic cod revisited: Using hydrodynamic modelling to reveal spawning habitat suitability, egg survival probability, and connectivity patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinrichsen, H.-H.; Lehmann, A.; Petereit, C.; Nissling, A.; Ustups, D.; Bergström, U.; Hüssy, K.

    2016-04-01

    In the highly variable environment of the Baltic Sea two genetically distinct cod stocks exist, one west of the island of Bornholm, which is referred to as the western stock, and one to the east of Bornholm, the eastern stock. A hydrodynamic model combined with a Lagrangian particle tracking technique was utilised to provide spatially and temporally resolved long-term information on environmentally-related (i) spawning habitat size, (ii) egg/yolk-sac larval survival, (iii) separation of causes of mortality, and (iv) connectivity between spawning areas of eastern Baltic cod. Simulations were performed to quantify processes generating heterogeneity in spatial distribution of cod eggs and yolk sac larvae up to the first-feeding stage. The spatial extent of cod eggs represented as virtual drifters is primarily determined by oxygen and salinity conditions at spawning, which define the habitat requirement to which cod's physiology is suited for egg development. The highest habitat suitability occurred in the Bornholm Basin, followed by the Gdansk Deep, while relatively low habitat suitability was obtained for the Arkona and the Gotland Basin. During drift egg and yolk sac larval survival is to a large extent affected by sedimentation. Eggs initially released in the western spawning grounds (Arkona and Bornholm Basin) were more affected by sedimentation than those released in the eastern spawning grounds (Gdansk Deep and Gotland Basin). Highest relative survival of eastern Baltic cod eggs occurred in the Bornholm Basin, with a pronounced decrease towards the Gdansk Deep and the Gotland Basin. Relatively low survival rates in the Gdansk Deep and in the Gotland Basin were attributable to oxygen-dependent mortality. Low oxygen content had almost no impact on survival in the Arkona Basin. For all spawning areas temperature dependent mortality was only evident after severe winters. Egg buoyancy in relation to topographic features like bottom sills and strong bottom slopes

  10. Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brodie, Jedediah; Johnson, Heather; Mitchell, Michael; Zager, Peter; Proffitt, Kelly; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kauffman, Matthew; Johnson, Bruce; Bissonette, John; Bishop, Chad; Gude, Justin; Herbert, Jeff; Hersey, Kent; Hurley, Mark; Lukacs, Paul M.; McCorquodale, Scott; McIntire, Eliot; Nowak, Josh; Sawyer, Hall; Smith, Douglas; White, P.J.

    2013-01-01

    Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. Proportional hazard analysis revealed that 'baseline' (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by <2%. When human factors were included, ‘total’ adult mortality was solely related to harvest; the influence of native carnivores was compensatory. Annual total mortality rates were lowest in populations sympatric with both pumas and wolves because managers reduced female harvest in areas with abundant or diverse carnivores. Mortality from native carnivores peaked in late winter and early spring, while harvest-induced mortality peaked in autumn. The strong peak in harvest-induced mortality during the autumn hunting season decreased as the number of native carnivore species increased. Synthesis and applications. Elevated baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as

  11. Divorce is a part of my life... resilience, survival, and vulnerability: young adults' perception of the implications of parental divorce.

    PubMed

    Eldar-Avidan, Dorit; Haj-Yahia, Muhammad M; Greenbaum, Charles W

    2009-01-01

    A qualitative study among 22 young adults (20-25 years old) whose parents divorced during their childhood was conducted in Israel, using semi-structured, in-depth, open-ended interviews. Qualitative data analysis led to identification of three profiles, aiming at a grounded theoretical conceptualization. Three core themes were identified: the centrality of the family; short- and long-term implications of parental divorce and its relations to supportive coping resources; and perspective at young adulthood. Further analysis led to typifying participants by three profiles, which represent the grounded theoretical conceptualizations: resilience, survival, and vulnerability. The most prominent difference among the profiles was the relationships between participants and their parents, and their perception of ongoing parental responsibility. A thorough discussion of the results and their implications for future research, theory development, and practice are presented.

  12. Gestational immune activation and Tsc2 haploinsufficiency cooperate to disrupt fetal survival and may perturb social behavior in adult mice.

    PubMed

    Ehninger, D; Sano, Y; de Vries, P J; Dies, K; Franz, D; Geschwind, D H; Kaur, M; Lee, Y-S; Li, W; Lowe, J K; Nakagawa, J A; Sahin, M; Smith, K; Whittemore, V; Silva, A J

    2012-01-01

    Approximately 40-50% of individuals affected by tuberous sclerosis (TSC) develop autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). One possible explanation for this partial penetrance is an interaction between TSC gene mutations and other risk factors such as gestational immune activation. In this study, we report the interactive effects of these two ASD risk factors in a mouse model of TSC. Combined, but not single, exposure had adverse effects on intrauterine survival. Additionally, provisional results suggest that these factors synergize to disrupt social approach behavior in adult mice. Moreover, studies in human populations are consistent with an interaction between high seasonal flu activity in late gestation and TSC mutations in ASD. Taken together, our studies raise the possibility of a gene × environment interaction between heterozygous TSC gene mutations and gestational immune activation in the pathogenesis of TSC-related ASD.

  13. Serotonin Depletion Hampers Survival and Proliferation in Neurospheres Derived from Adult Neural Stem Cells

    PubMed Central

    Benninghoff, Jens; Gritti, Angela; Rizzi, Matteo; LaMorte, Giuseppe; Schloesser, Robert J; Schmitt, Angelika; Robel, Stefanie; Genius, Just; Moessner, Rainald; Riederer, Peter; Manji, Husseini K; Grunze, Heinz; Rujescu, Dan; Moeller, Hans-Juergen; Lesch, Klaus-Peter; Vescovi, Angelo Luigi

    2010-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) and the serotonergic system have recently been indicated as modulators of adult hippocampal neurogenesis. In this study, we evaluated the role of 5-HT on the functional features in neurospheres derived from adult neural stem cells (ANSC). We cultured neurospheres derived from mouse hippocampus in serum-free medium containing epidermal (EGF) and type-2 fibroblast growth factor (FGF2). Under these conditions ANSC expressed both isoforms of tryptophane-hydroxylase (TPH) and produced 5-HT. Blocking TPH function by para-chlorophenylalanine (PCPA) reduced ANSC proliferation, which was rescued by exogenous 5-HT. 5-HT action on ANSC was mediated predominantly by the serotonin receptor subtype 5-HT1A and, to a lesser extent, through the 5-HT2C (receptor) subtype, as shown by selectively antagonizing these receptors. Finally, we documented a 5-HT-induced increase of ANSC migration activity. In summary, we demonstrated a powerful serotonergic impact on ANSC functional features, which was mainly mediated by 5-HT1A receptors. PMID:20010549

  14. Serotonin depletion hampers survival and proliferation in neurospheres derived from adult neural stem cells.

    PubMed

    Benninghoff, Jens; Gritti, Angela; Rizzi, Matteo; Lamorte, Giuseppe; Schloesser, Robert J; Schmitt, Angelika; Robel, Stefanie; Genius, Just; Moessner, Rainald; Riederer, Peter; Manji, Husseini K; Grunze, Heinz; Rujescu, Dan; Moeller, Hans-Juergen; Lesch, Klaus-Peter; Vescovi, Angelo Luigi

    2010-03-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) and the serotonergic system have recently been indicated as modulators of adult hippocampal neurogenesis. In this study, we evaluated the role of 5-HT on the functional features in neurospheres derived from adult neural stem cells (ANSC). We cultured neurospheres derived from mouse hippocampus in serum-free medium containing epidermal (EGF) and type-2 fibroblast growth factor (FGF2). Under these conditions ANSC expressed both isoforms of tryptophane-hydroxylase (TPH) and produced 5-HT. Blocking TPH function by para-chlorophenylalanine (PCPA) reduced ANSC proliferation, which was rescued by exogenous 5-HT. 5-HT action on ANSC was mediated predominantly by the serotonin receptor subtype 5-HT1A and, to a lesser extent, through the 5-HT2C (receptor) subtype, as shown by selectively antagonizing these receptors. Finally, we documented a 5-HT-induced increase of ANSC migration activity. In summary, we demonstrated a powerful serotonergic impact on ANSC functional features, which was mainly mediated by 5-HT1A receptors.

  15. Colon Cancer Staging in Vulnerable Older Adults: Adherence to National Guidelines and Impact on Survival

    PubMed Central

    Leal, TB; Holden, T; Cavalcante, L; Allen, GO; Schumacher, JR; Smith, MA; Weiss, JM; Neuman, HB; LoConte, NK

    2015-01-01

    Background There is concern that elders are not adequately evaluated prior to colon cancer surgery. We sought to determine adherence with ACOVE-3 (Assessing Care of Vulnerable Elders) quality indicators for pre-operative staging prior to colectomy for colon cancer utilizing the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database (1992–2005). Methods We determined the proportion of patients aged 75 and older who had preoperative staging prior to colectomy for colon adenocarcinoma. Preoperative staging was defined as abdominopelvic computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging scan (SCAN) and colonoscopy or flexible sigmoidoscopy (SCOPE). Multivariate logistic regression identified predictors of adherence. Odds ratios were adjusted for comorbidity, socioeconomic status, and disease severity. The association of adherence to ACOVE-3 and survival was quantified. Results Of the 37,862 patients, the majority were 75–84 years, 28% of the patients were ≥85 years. Regarding preoperative staging in the 6-month interval prior to surgical resection, 8% had neither SCAN nor SCOPE, 6% had only SCAN, 43% had only SCOPE, and 43% had both SCAN and SCOPE. Compared to patients who were not staged, those evaluated with either SCOPE alone or SCAN plus SCOPE had lower odds of 3-year mortality. Patients who were staged with SCAN alone had an increased odds of death compared to those who had neither SCAN or SCOPE. Conclusions These data demonstrate that the majority of vulnerable elders with colon cancer did not receive appropriate preoperative staging prior to resection. The findings also confirm that adherence to ACOVE-3 guidelines is associated with improved long-term survival. PMID:25914900

  16. Association between helicopter with physician versus ground emergency medical services and survival of adults with major trauma in Japan

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Helicopter emergency medical services with a physician (HEMS) has been provided in Japan since 2001. However, HEMS and its possible effect on outcomes for severe trauma patients have still been debated as helicopter services require expensive and limited resources. Our aim was to analyze the association between the use of helicopters with a physician versus ground services and survival among adults with serious traumatic injuries. Methods This multicenter prospective observational study involved 24,293 patients. All patients were older than 15 years of age, had sustained blunt or penetrating trauma and had an Injury Severity Score (ISS) higher than 15. All of the patient data were recorded between 2004 and 2011 in the Japan Trauma Data Bank, which includes data from 114 major emergency hospitals in Japan. The primary outcome was survival to discharge from hospitals. The intervention was either transport by helicopter with a physician or ground emergency services. Results A total of 2,090 patients in the sample were transported by helicopter, and 22,203 were transported by ground. Overall, 546 patients (26.1%) transported by helicopter died compared to 5,765 patients (26.0%) transported by ground emergency services. Patients transported by helicopter had higher ISSs than those transported by ground. In multivariable logistic regression, helicopter transport had an odds ratio (OR) for survival to discharge of 1.277 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.049 to 1.556) after adjusting for age, sex, mechanism of injury, type of trauma, initial vital signs (including systolic blood pressure, heart rate and respiratory rate), ISS and prehospital treatment (including intubation, airway protection maneuver and intravenous fluid). In the propensity score–matched cohort, helicopter transport was associated with improved odds of survival compared to ground transport (OR, 1.446; 95% CI, 1.220 to 1.714). In conditional logistic regression, after adjusting for

  17. Self-perceptions of young adults who survived severe childhood burn injury.

    PubMed

    Russell, William; Robert, Rhonda S; Thomas, Christopher R; Holzer, Charles E; Blakeney, Patricia; Meyer, Walter J

    2013-01-01

    The transition of pediatric burn survivors into adulthood is accompanied by a reformulation of their self-concept. To anticipate the need for and guide development of appropriate psychosocial interventions, this study examines how young adults who were burned as children perceive themselves and how this perception might affect their self-esteem. Eighty-two young adult burn survivors (45 male, 37 female) were assessed using the Tennessee Self-Concept Scale, 2nd edition (TSCS2) to determine how the participants perceive themselves and their interaction with society. To gain insight into the possible effects of these self-concept scores, relationships were analyzed between self-concept, a behavioral assessment (Young Adult Self-Report [YASR]), and a psychiatric symptom assessment (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders [SCID I]). This group of burn survivors scored significantly lower in self-concepts, reflected in TSCS2 subscale scores of physical function, appearance, and sexuality, moral conduct, personal values, academics and work, and identity, than did the reference population. Pearson correlation coefficients showed that as moral, personal, family, and social aspects of self-concept decreased, clinical problems endorsed on the YASR subscales increased, including anxiety, somatic, attention, intrusive, and aggressive. Persons with lower self-concept scores on the TSCS2 personal, family, and social scales were more withdrawn on the YASR. Similarly, those with lower TSCS2 scores on the personal and family scales endorsed significantly more thought problems on the YASR. TSCS2 total self-concept, personal, and all of the supplementary scale scores were significantly lower for the group with an affective disorder. Those whose SCID I scores were consistent with a current anxiety disorder had significantly lower scores for the TSCS2 total self-concept and personal. Lower self-concept was associated with endorsement of SCID symptoms. In summary, the

  18. Low-dose dexamethasone treatment promotes the pro-survival signalling pathway in the adult rat prefrontal cortex.

    PubMed

    Drakulić, D; Veličković, N; Stanojlović, M; Grković, I; Mitrović, N; Lavrnja, I; Horvat, A

    2013-07-01

    Synthetic glucocorticoid dexamethasone (DEX), a highly potent anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive agent, is widely used in the treatment of brain cancer, as well as for inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. The present study aimed to determine whether low-dose subchronic DEX treatment (100 μg/kg for eight consecutive days) exerts long-term effects on apoptosis in the adult rat prefrontal cortex (PFC) by examining the expression of cell death-promoting molecules [poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP), p53, procaspase 3, cleaved caspase 3, Bax] and cell-survival molecules (AKT, Bcl-2). The results obtained revealed that body, thymus and adrenal gland weights, as well corticosterone levels, in the serum and PFC were reduced 1 day after the last DEX injection. In the PFC, DEX caused activation of AKT, augmentation of pro-survival Bcl-2 protein and an enhanced Bcl-2/Bax protein ratio, as well Bcl-2 translocation to the mitochondria. An unaltered profile with respect to the protein expression of apoptotic molecules PARP, procaspase 3 and Bax was detected, whereas p53 protein was decreased. Reverse transcriptase -polymerase chain reaction analysis showed a decrease of p53 mRNA levels and no significant difference in Bcl-2 and Bax mRNA expression in DEX-treated rats. Finally, a DNA fragmentation assay and Fluoro-Jade staining demonstrated no considerable changes in apoptosis in the rat PFC. Our findings support the concept that low-dose DEX creates a hypocorticoid state in the brain and also indicate that subchronic DEX treatment activates the pro-survival signalling pathway but does not change apoptotic markers in the rat PFC. This mechanism might be relevant for the DEX-induced apoptosis resistance observed during and after chemotherapy of patients with brain tumours.

  19. A Single Hot Event Stimulates Adult Performance but Reduces Egg Survival in the Oriental Fruit Moth, Grapholitha molesta

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Gang; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Ma, Chun-Sen

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to increase the exposure of insects to hot events (involving a few hours at extreme high temperatures). These events are unlikely to cause widespread mortality but may modify population dynamics via impacting life history traits such as adult fecundity and egg hatching. These effects and their potential impact on population predictions are still largely unknown. In this study, we simulated a single hot event (maximum of 38°C lasting for 4 h) of a magnitude increasingly found under field conditions and examined its effect in the oriental fruit moth, Grapholitha molesta. This hot event had no impact on the survival of G. molesta adults, copulation periods or male longevity. However, the event increased female lifespan and the length of the oviposition period, leading to a potential increase in lifetime fecundity and suggesting hormesis. In contrast, exposure of males to this event markedly reduced the net reproductive value. Male heat treatment delayed the onset of oviposition in the females they mated with, as well as causing a decrease in the duration of oviposition period and lifetime fecundity. Both male and female stress also reduced egg hatch. Our findings of hormetic effects on female performance but concurrent detrimental effects on egg hatch suggest that hot events have unpredictable consequences on the population dynamics of this pest species with implications for likely effects associated with climate warming. PMID:25551751

  20. Hate crimes and stigma-related experiences among sexual minority adults in the United States: prevalence estimates from a national probability sample.

    PubMed

    Herek, Gregory M

    2009-01-01

    Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or property crime based on their sexual orientation; about half had experienced verbal harassment, and more than 1 in 10 reported having experienced employment or housing discrimination. Gay men were significantly more likely than lesbians or bisexuals to experience violence and property crimes. Employment and housing discrimination were significantly more likely among gay men and lesbians than among bisexual men and women. Implications for future research and policy are discussed.

  1. Glial glycine transporter 1 function is essential for early postnatal survival but dispensable in adult mice.

    PubMed

    Eulenburg, Volker; Retiounskaia, Marina; Papadopoulos, Theofilos; Gomeza, Jesús; Betz, Heinrich

    2010-07-01

    The glycine transporter 1 (GlyT1) is expressed in astrocytes and selected neurons of the mammalian CNS. In newborn mice, GlyT1 is crucial for efficient termination of glycine-mediated inhibitory neurotransmission. Furthermore, GlyT1 has been implicated in the regulation of excitatory N-methyl-D-asparate (NMDA) receptors. To evaluate whether glial and neuronal GlyT1 have distinct roles at inhibitory synapses, we inactivated the GlyT1 gene cell type-specifically using mice carrying floxed GlyT1 alleles GlyT1((+)/+)). GlyT1((+)/(+)) mice expressing Cre recombinase in glial cells developed severe neuromotor deficits during the first postnatal week, which mimicked the phenotype of conventional GlyT1 knock-out mice and are consistent with glycinergic over-inhibition. In contrast, Cre-mediated inactivation of the GlyT1 gene in neuronal cells did not result in detectable motor impairment. Notably, some animals deficient for glial GlyT1 survived the first postnatal week and did not develop neuromotor deficits throughout adulthood, although GlyT1 expression was efficiently reduced. Thus, glial GlyT1 is critical for the regulation of glycine levels at inhibitory synapses only during early postnatal life.

  2. Probability Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaynes, E. T.; Bretthorst, G. Larry

    2003-04-01

    Foreword; Preface; Part I. Principles and Elementary Applications: 1. Plausible reasoning; 2. The quantitative rules; 3. Elementary sampling theory; 4. Elementary hypothesis testing; 5. Queer uses for probability theory; 6. Elementary parameter estimation; 7. The central, Gaussian or normal distribution; 8. Sufficiency, ancillarity, and all that; 9. Repetitive experiments, probability and frequency; 10. Physics of 'random experiments'; Part II. Advanced Applications: 11. Discrete prior probabilities, the entropy principle; 12. Ignorance priors and transformation groups; 13. Decision theory: historical background; 14. Simple applications of decision theory; 15. Paradoxes of probability theory; 16. Orthodox methods: historical background; 17. Principles and pathology of orthodox statistics; 18. The Ap distribution and rule of succession; 19. Physical measurements; 20. Model comparison; 21. Outliers and robustness; 22. Introduction to communication theory; References; Appendix A. Other approaches to probability theory; Appendix B. Mathematical formalities and style; Appendix C. Convolutions and cumulants.

  3. Divergences in trends in child and adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: survey evidence on the survival of children and siblings.

    PubMed

    Masquelier, Bruno; Reniers, Georges; Pison, Gilles

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of trends in mortality in children aged under 5 and adults between the ages of 15 and 60 in sub-Saharan Africa, using data on the survival of the children and siblings collected in Demographic and Health Surveys. If conspicuous stalls in the 1990s are disregarded, child mortality levels have generally declined and converged over the last 30-40 years. In contrast, adult mortality in many East and Southern African countries has increased markedly, echoing earlier increases in the incidence of HIV. In recent years, adult mortality levels have begun to decline once again in East Africa, in some instances before the large-scale expansion of antiretroviral therapy programmes. More surprising is the lack of sustained improvements in adult survival in some countries that have not experienced severe HIV epidemics. Because trends in child and adult mortality do not always evolve in tandem, we argue that model-based estimates, inferred by matching indices of child survival onto standard mortality schedules, can be very misleading.

  4. Heat-stress survival in the pre-adult stage of the life cycle in an intercontinental set of recombinant inbred lines of Drosophila melanogaster.

    PubMed

    Sambucetti, P; Scannapieco, A C; Loeschcke, V; Norry, F M

    2013-08-01

    In insects, pre-adult stages of the life cycle are exposed to variation in temperature that may differ from that in adults. However, the genetic basis for adaptation to environmental temperature could be similar between the pre-adult and the adult stages of the life cycle. Here, we tested quantitative trait loci (QTL) for heat-stress survival in larvae of Drosophila melanogaster, with and without a mild-heat-stress pre-treatment. Two sets of recombinant inbred lines derived from lines artificially selected for high and low levels of knockdown resistance to high temperature in young flies were used as the mapping population. There was no apparent increase in heat-shock survival between heat-pretreated and non-pretreated larvae. There was a positive correlation between the two experimental conditions of heat-shock survival (with and without a heat pre-treatment) except for males from one set of lines. Several QTL were identified involving all three major chromosomes. Most QTL for larval thermotolerance overlapped with thermotolerance QTL identified in previous studies for adults, indicating that heat-stress resistance is not genetically independent between life cycle stages because of either linkage or pleiotropy. The sign of the effects of some QTL alleles differed both between the sexes and between life stages.

  5. Recent trends in survival of adult patients with acute leukemia: overall improvements, but persistent and partly increasing disparity in survival of patients from minority groups.

    PubMed

    Pulte, Dianne; Redaniel, Maria Theresa; Jansen, Lina; Brenner, Hermann; Jeffreys, Mona

    2013-02-01

    The survival of younger patients with acute leukemia has improved in the early 21(st) century, but it is unknown whether people of all ethnic and racial backgrounds have benefited equally. Using cancer registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program, we assessed trends in 5-year relative survival for patients aged 15 years or more with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and acute myeloblastic leukemia divided by racial and ethnic group, including non-Hispanic whites, African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asian-Pacific Islanders in the 1990s and the early 21(st) century. Modeled period analysis was used to obtain the most up-to-date estimates of survival. Overall, the 5-year survival increased from 31.6% in 1997-2002 to 39.0% in 2003-2008 for patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and from 15.5% in 1991-1996 to 22.5% in 2003-2008 for those with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Nevertheless, among patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, age-adjusted 5-year relative survival rates remained lower for African-Americans and Hispanics than for non-Hispanic whites. Among patients with acute myeloblastic leukemia, the increase in survival was greatest (from 32.6% in 1991-1996 to 47.1% in 2003-2008) for younger patients (15-54 years), and was more pronounced for non-Hispanic whites (+16.4% units) than for other patients (+10.8% units). Increases in survival are observed in all ethnic or racial groups. Nevertheless, among patients with acute leukemias, disparities in survival persist between non-Hispanic white people and people of other ethnic or racial groups. Disparities are increasing in younger patients with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Improvements in access to treatment, especially for minority patients, may improve outcomes.

  6. Retinoic acid signaling controls the formation, proliferation and survival of the blastema during adult zebrafish fin regeneration.

    PubMed

    Blum, Nicola; Begemann, Gerrit

    2012-01-01

    Adult teleosts rebuild amputated fins through a proliferation-dependent process called epimorphic regeneration, in which a blastema of cycling progenitor cells replaces the lost fin tissue. The genetic networks that control formation of blastema cells from formerly quiescent stump tissue and subsequent blastema function are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated the cellular and molecular consequences of genetically interfering with retinoic acid (RA) signaling for the formation of the zebrafish blastema. We show that RA signaling is upregulated within the first few hours after fin amputation in the stump mesenchyme, where it controls Fgf, Wnt/β-catenin and Igf signaling. Genetic inhibition of the RA pathway at this stage blocks blastema formation by inhibiting cell cycle entry of stump cells and impairs the formation of the basal epidermal layer, a signaling center in the wound epidermis. In the established blastema, RA signaling remains active to ensure the survival of the highly proliferative blastemal population by controlling expression of the anti-apoptotic factor bcl2. In addition, RA signaling maintains blastema proliferation through the activation of growth-stimulatory signals mediated by Fgf and Wnt/β-catenin signaling, as well as by reducing signaling through the growth-inhibitory non-canonical Wnt pathway. The endogenous roles of RA in adult vertebrate appendage regeneration are uncovered here for the first time. They provide a mechanistic framework to understand previous observations in salamanders that link endogenous sources of RA to the regeneration process itself and support the hypothesis that the RA signaling pathway is an essential component of vertebrate tissue regeneration.

  7. Survival analysis of banding and bonding molar tubes in adult patients over a 12-month period: a split-mouth randomized clinical trial.

    PubMed

    Oeiras, Valéria Jacques; Silva, Valéria Assis Almeida E; Azevedo, Leidiana Aguiar; Lobato, Vanessa Soares; Normando, David

    2016-12-22

    This split-mouth randomized clinical trial aimed to compare the survival rate of bonding and banding molar tubes in adult orthodontic patients. Eligibility criteria included adults (aged >18 years), no active caries, restorations, or fractures in the upper and lower molars. The main outcome was any type of first-time failure in molar tubes. A computer-generated randomization scheme was used in a 1:1 ratio. The survival rate was estimated for 32 adult patients, in whom a tube was bonded to a molar tooth using composite resin on one side and a band was cemented with glass ionomer onto the same tooth in the contralateral arch. A total of 59 banded and 59 bonded molars were followed up for 12 months. Blinding was not applicable. Survival analysis including Cox regression was used at p < 0.05. The survival rate of bonded molars was not statistically different from that of banded molars (log-rank test, p = 0.97). Hazard ratio (HR) was 0.72 (95%CI, 0.38-1.31). Bonded upper molars yielded a survival rate of 81.25% (26 out of 32) compared to 71.87% (23 out of 32) for banded upper molars. The survival rate was 66.66% (18 out of 27) for banded lower molars and 59.25% for bonded lower molars (16 out of 27). The HR for lower vs. upper arch was 2.16 (95%CI, 1.18-3.98). No serious problem was observed other than gingivitis associated with plaque accumulation. In contrast to previous studies in young patients, in adults, bonding orthodontic tubes to molars is similar to molar banding. However, both procedures had a high failure rate in the lower arch.

  8. Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama.

    PubMed

    Neira, Marco; Lacroix, Renaud; Cáceres, Lorenzo; Kaiser, Paul E; Young, Josue; Pineda, Lleysa; Black, Isaac; Sosa, Nestor; Nimmo, Derric; Alphey, Luke; McKemey, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed.

  9. Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama

    PubMed Central

    Neira, Marco; Lacroix, Renaud; Cáceres, Lorenzo; Kaiser, Paul E; Young, Josue; Pineda, Lleysa; Black, Isaac; Sosa, Nestor; Nimmo, Derric; Alphey, Luke; McKemey, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed. PMID:25410991

  10. Induced neural stem cells achieve long-term survival and functional integration in the adult mouse brain.

    PubMed

    Hemmer, Kathrin; Zhang, Mingyue; van Wüllen, Thea; Sakalem, Marna; Tapia, Natalia; Baumuratov, Aidos; Kaltschmidt, Christian; Kaltschmidt, Barbara; Schöler, Hans R; Zhang, Weiqi; Schwamborn, Jens C

    2014-09-09

    Differentiated cells can be converted directly into multipotent neural stem cells (i.e., induced neural stem cells [iNSCs]). iNSCs offer an attractive alternative to induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) technology with regard to regenerative therapies. Here, we show an in vivo long-term analysis of transplanted iNSCs in the adult mouse brain. iNSCs showed sound in vivo long-term survival rates without graft overgrowths. The cells displayed a neural multilineage potential with a clear bias toward astrocytes and a permanent downregulation of progenitor and cell-cycle markers, indicating that iNSCs are not predisposed to tumor formation. Furthermore, the formation of synaptic connections as well as neuronal and glial electrophysiological properties demonstrated that differentiated iNSCs migrated, functionally integrated, and interacted with the existing neuronal circuitry. We conclude that iNSC long-term transplantation is a safe procedure; moreover, it might represent an interesting tool for future personalized regenerative applications.

  11. Effects of low level laser treatment on the survival of axotomized retinal ganglion cells in adult Hamsters

    PubMed Central

    So, Kwok-Fai; Leung, Mason Chin Pang; Cui, Qi

    2014-01-01

    Injury to axons close to the neuronal bodies in the mammalian central nervous system causes a large proportion of parenting neurons to degenerate. It is known that optic nerve transection close to the eye in rodents leads to a loss of about half of retinal ganglion cells in 1 week and about 90% in 2 weeks. Using low level laser treatment in the present study, we demonstrated that treatment with helium-neon (660 nm) laser with 15 mW power could delay retinal ganglion cell death after optic nerve axotomy in adult hamsters. The effect was most apparent in the first week with a short period of treatment time (5 minutes) in which 65–66% of retinal ganglion cells survived the optic nerve axotomy whereas 45–47% of retinal ganglion cells did so in optic nerve axotomy controls. We also found that single dose and early commencement of laser irradiation were important in protecting retinal ganglion cells following optic nerve axotomy. These findings thus convincingly show that appropriate laser treatment may be neuroprotective to retinal ganglion cells. PMID:25558230

  12. Disparities in Adolescent and Young Adult Survival After Testicular Cancer Vary by Histologic Subtype: A Population-Based Study in California 1988–2010

    PubMed Central

    Mujahid, Mahasin; Srinivas, Sandy; Keegan, Theresa H.M.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Testicular cancer is the most common cancer among adolescent and young adult (AYA) men 15–39 years of age. This study aims to determine whether race/ethnicity and/or neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) contribute independently to survival of AYAs with testicular cancer. Methods: Data on 14,249 eligible AYAs with testicular cancer diagnosed in California between 1988 and 2010 were obtained from the population-based California Cancer Registry. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine overall and testicular cancer-specific survival and survival for the seminoma and nonseminoma histologic subtypes according to race/ethnicity, census-tract level neighborhood SES, and other patient and clinical characteristics. Results: Compared with White AYAs, Hispanic AYAs had worse overall and testicular cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07–1.37) and Black AYAs had worse overall survival (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.01–1.97), independent of neighborhood SES and other demographic and clinical factors. Racial/ethnic disparities in survival were more pronounced for nonseminoma than for seminoma. AYAs residing in middle and low SES neighborhoods experienced worse survival across both histologic subtypes independent of race/ethnicity and other factors, while improvements in survival over time were more pronounced for seminoma. Longer time to treatment was also associated with worse survival, particularly for AYAs with nonseminoma. Conclusion: Among AYAs, race/ethnicity, and neighborhood SES are independently associated with survival after testicular cancer. Variation in disparities by histologic type according to demographic factors, year of diagnosis, and time to treatment may reflect differences in prognosis and extent of treatment for the two histologies. PMID:26812451

  13. Lexicographic Probability, Conditional Probability, and Nonstandard Probability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-11-11

    the following conditions: CP1. µ(U |U) = 1 if U ∈ F ′. CP2 . µ(V1 ∪ V2 |U) = µ(V1 |U) + µ(V2 |U) if V1 ∩ V2 = ∅, U ∈ F ′, and V1, V2 ∈ F . CP3. µ(V |U...µ(V |X)× µ(X |U) if V ⊆ X ⊆ U , U,X ∈ F ′, V ∈ F . Note that it follows from CP1 and CP2 that µ(· |U) is a probability measure on (W,F) (and, in... CP2 hold. This is easily seen to determine µ. Moreover, µ vaciously satisfies CP3, since there do not exist distinct sets U and X in F ′ such that U

  14. Sexual Dysfunction among Older Adults: Prevalence and Risk Factors from a Nationally Representative U.S. Probability Sample of Men and Women 57–85 Years of Age

    PubMed Central

    Laumann, Edward O.; Das, Aniruddha; Waite, Linda J.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Despite increasing demand for clinical interventions into sexual problems in an aging population, epidemiological data on the subject are scarce. Aims To examine the prevalence of sexual problems across different sociodemographic groups, and risk factors for these problems in multiple domains of life. Methods Statistical analysis of data from the 2005–2006 National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP), a nationally representative U.S. probability sample of 1,550 women and 1,455 men aged 57–85 at the time of interview. Main Outcome Measures Likelihood of experiencing sexual dysfunction in the preceding 12 months. Results Sexual problems among the elderly are not an inevitable consequence of aging, but instead are responses to the presence of stressors in multiple life domains. This impact may partly be gender differentiated, with older women's sexual health more sensitive to their physical health than is true for men. The mechanism linking life stress with sexual problems is likely to be poor mental health and relationship dissatisfaction. The NSHAP results demonstrate the consistent impact of poor mental health on women's reports of sexual problems and the less consistent association with men's problems. Conclusions The results point to a need for physicians who are treating older adults experiencing sexual problems to take into account not simply their physical health, but also their psychosocial health and satisfaction with their intimate relationship. PMID:18702640

  15. A case of low success of blind vaccination campaigns against myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease on survival of adult European wild rabbits.

    PubMed

    Rouco, Carlos; Moreno, Sacramento; Santoro, Simone

    2016-10-01

    Vaccination campaigns against myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) are commonly used in translocation programs conducted for the purpose of recovering wild European rabbit populations in Iberian Mediterranean ecosystems. In most cases rabbits are vaccinated 'blind' (i.e. without assessing their prior immunological status) for economic and logistic reasons. However, there is conflicting evidence on the effectiveness of such an approach. We tested whether blind vaccination against myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease improved rabbit survival in a rabbit translocation program where wild rabbits were kept in semi-natural conditions in three enclosures. We conducted nine capture sessions over two years (2008-2010) and used the information collected to compare the survival of vaccinated (n=511) versus unvaccinated (n=161) adult wild rabbits using capture-mark-recapture analysis. Average monthly survival was no different for vaccinated versus unvaccinated individuals, both in the period between release and first capture (short-term) and after the first capture onward (long-term). Rabbit survival was lower in the short term than in the long term regardless of whether rabbits were vaccinated or not. Lower survival in the short-term could be due to the stress induced by the translocation process itself (e.g. handling stress). However, we did not find any overall effect of vaccination on survival which could be explained by two non-exclusive reasons. First, interference of the vaccine with the natural antibodies in the donor population. Due to donor populations have high density of rabbits with, likely, high prevalence of antibodies as a result of previous natural exposure to these diseases. Second, the lack of severe outbreaks during the study period. Based on our findings we argue that blind vaccination of adult rabbits in translocation programs may be often mostly ineffective and unnecessarily costly. In particular, since outbreaks are hard to predict

  16. Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dybala, Kristen E.; Eadie, John M.; Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Herzog, Mark P.

    2013-01-01

    Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.

  17. Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population.

    PubMed

    Dybala, Kristen E; Eadie, John M; Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Herzog, Mark P

    2013-09-01

    Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.

  18. Ratios of T lymphocyte subpopulations predict survival of cadaveric renal allografts in adult patients on low dose corticosteroid therapy.

    PubMed

    Van Es, A; Tanke, H J; Baldwin, W M; Oljans, P J; Ploem, J S; Vanes, L A

    1983-04-01

    Peripheral blood T lymphocyte subpopulations were monitored in 45 consecutive adult recipients of cadaveric renal allografts by using monoclonal antibodies and flow cytometrie. All patients were treated with low dose corticosteroids and azathioprine. In 37 patients pre-transplant OKT4/OKT8 ratios were available. Six of 26 patients (23%) with pre-transplant OKT4/OKT8 ratios greater than 1.6 and seven of 11 patients (64%) with pre-transplant OKT4/OKT8 ratio less than or equal to 1.6 lost their graft due to rejection within 6 months. The difference in transplant survival between patients with pre-transplant OKT4/OKT8 ratios greater than 1.6 and less than or equal to 1.6i is just significant (P = 0 . 049 Fishers test). No correlation was found between post-transplant values of individual lymphocyte subpopulations or OKT4/OKT8 ratios and the incidence of subsequent rejection episodes. Forty out of 45 patients suffered one or more rejection episodes which were treated by raising the dosage of prednisone. In 24 of these patients the rejection episode was reversed, leading to a transplant survival of at least 6 months. In these 24 patients the OKT4/OKT8 ratio was greater than 1.6 for at least 3 days before the institution of any rejection treatments. Sixteen patients lost their graft due to rejection within 6 months after transplantation. In 11 of these 16 patients OKT4/OKT8 ratios less than or equal to 1.6 preceded the institution of all rejection treatments for at least 3 days, while in three patients the OKT4/OKT8 ratio was greater than 1.6 before the first rejection episode but this ratio was less than or equal to 1.6 before subsequent rejection episodes. Thus, OKT4/OKT8 ratios greater than 1.i6 correlated with reversible rejection episodes and OKT4/OKT8 ratios less than or equal to 1.6 correlated with irreversible rejection (P less than 0 . 001).

  19. Improving the Quality of Adult Mortality Data Collected in Demographic Surveys: Validation Study of a New Siblings' Survival Questionnaire in Niakhar, Senegal

    PubMed Central

    Helleringer, Stéphane; Pison, Gilles; Masquelier, Bruno; Kanté, Almamy Malick; Douillot, Laetitia; Duthé, Géraldine; Sokhna, Cheikh; Delaunay, Valérie

    2014-01-01

    Background In countries with limited vital registration, adult mortality is frequently estimated using siblings' survival histories (SSHs) collected during Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). These data are affected by reporting errors. We developed a new SSH questionnaire, the siblings' survival calendar (SSC). It incorporates supplementary interviewing techniques to limit omissions of siblings and uses an event history calendar to improve reports of dates and ages. We hypothesized that the SSC would improve the quality of adult mortality data. Methods and Findings We conducted a retrospective validation study among the population of the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Senegal. We randomly assigned men and women aged 15–59 y to an interview with either the DHS questionnaire or the SSC. We compared SSHs collected in each group to prospective data on adult mortality collected in Niakhar. The SSC reduced respondents' tendency to round reports of dates and ages to the nearest multiple of five or ten (“heaping”). The SSC also had higher sensitivity in recording adult female deaths: among respondents whose sister(s) had died at an adult age in the past 15 y, 89.6% reported an adult female death during SSC interviews versus 75.6% in DHS interviews (p = 0.027). The specificity of the SSC was similar to that of the DHS questionnaire, i.e., it did not increase the number of false reports of deaths. However, the SSC did not improve the reporting of adult deaths among the brothers of respondents. Study limitations include sample selectivity, limited external validity, and multiple testing. Conclusions The SSC has the potential to collect more accurate SSHs than the questionnaire used in DHS. Further research is needed to assess the effects of the SSC on estimates of adult mortality rates. Additional validation studies should be conducted in different social and epidemiological settings. Trial Registration Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN06849961

  20. Confidence Probability versus Detection Probability

    SciTech Connect

    Axelrod, M

    2005-08-18

    In a discovery sampling activity the auditor seeks to vet an inventory by measuring (or inspecting) a random sample of items from the inventory. When the auditor finds every sample item in compliance, he must then make a confidence statement about the whole inventory. For example, the auditor might say: ''We believe that this inventory of 100 items contains no more than 5 defectives with 95% confidence.'' Note this is a retrospective statement in that it asserts something about the inventory after the sample was selected and measured. Contrast this to the prospective statement: ''We will detect the existence of more than 5 defective items in this inventory with 95% probability.'' The former uses confidence probability while the latter uses detection probability. For a given sample size, the two probabilities need not be equal, indeed they could differ significantly. Both these probabilities critically depend on the auditor's prior belief about the number of defectives in the inventory and how he defines non-compliance. In other words, the answer strongly depends on how the question is framed.

  1. The performance of inverse probability of treatment weighting and full matching on the propensity score in the presence of model misspecification when estimating the effect of treatment on survival outcomes.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C; Stuart, Elizabeth A

    2015-04-30

    There is increasing interest in estimating the causal effects of treatments using observational data. Propensity-score matching methods are frequently used to adjust for differences in observed characteristics between treated and control individuals in observational studies. Survival or time-to-event outcomes occur frequently in the medical literature, but the use of propensity score methods in survival analysis has not been thoroughly investigated. This paper compares two approaches for estimating the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) on survival outcomes: Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (IPTW) and full matching. The performance of these methods was compared in an extensive set of simulations that varied the extent of confounding and the amount of misspecification of the propensity score model. We found that both IPTW and full matching resulted in estimation of marginal hazard ratios with negligible bias when the ATE was the target estimand and the treatment-selection process was weak to moderate. However, when the treatment-selection process was strong, both methods resulted in biased estimation of the true marginal hazard ratio, even when the propensity score model was correctly specified. When the propensity score model was correctly specified, bias tended to be lower for full matching than for IPTW. The reasons for these biases and for the differences between the two methods appeared to be due to some extreme weights generated for each method. Both methods tended to produce more extreme weights as the magnitude of the effects of covariates on treatment selection increased. Furthermore, more extreme weights were observed for IPTW than for full matching. However, the poorer performance of both methods in the presence of a strong treatment-selection process was mitigated by the use of IPTW with restriction and full matching with a caliper restriction when the propensity score model was correctly specified.

  2. Age-specific survival of reintroduced swift fox in Badlands National Park and surrounding lands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sasmal, Indrani; Klaver, Robert W.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Schroeder, Greg M.

    2016-01-01

    In 2003, a reintroduction program was initiated at Badlands National Park (BNP), South Dakota, USA, with swift foxes (Vulpes velox) translocated from Colorado and Wyoming, USA, as part of a restoration effort to recover declining swift fox populations throughout its historical range. Estimates of age-specific survival are necessary to evaluate the potential for population growth of reintroduced populations. We used 7 years (2003–2009) of capture–recapture data of 243 pups, 29 yearlings, and 69 adult swift foxes at BNP and the surrounding area to construct Cormack–Jolly–Seber model estimates of apparent survival within a capture–mark–recapture framework using Program MARK. The best model for estimating recapture probabilities included no differences among age classes, greater recapture probabilities during early years of the monitoring effort than later years, and variation among spring, winter, and summer. Our top ranked survival model indicated pup survival differed from that of yearlings and adults and varied by month and year. The apparent annual survival probability of pups (0.47, SE = 0.10) in our study area was greater than the apparent annual survival probability of yearlings and adults (0.27, SE = 0.08). Our results indicate low survival probabilities for a reintroduced population of swift foxes in the BNP and surrounding areas. Management of reintroduced populations and future reintroductions of swift foxes should consider the effects of relative low annual survival on population demography.

  3. Effects of crude oil exposure on bioaccumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and survival of adult and larval stages of gelatinous zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Almeda, Rodrigo; Wambaugh, Zoe; Chai, Chao; Wang, Zucheng; Liu, Zhanfei; Buskey, Edward J

    2013-01-01

    Gelatinous zooplankton play an important role in marine food webs both as major consumers of metazooplankton and as prey of apex predators (e.g., tuna, sunfish, sea turtles). However, little is known about the effects of crude oil spills on these important components of planktonic communities. We determined the effects of Louisiana light sweet crude oil exposure on survival and bioaccumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in adult stages of the scyphozoans Pelagia noctiluca and Aurelia aurita and the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi, and on survival of ephyra larvae of A. aurita and cydippid larvae of M. leidyi, in the laboratory. Adult P. noctiluca showed 100% mortality at oil concentration ≥20 µL L(-1) after 16 h. In contrast, low or non-lethal effects were observed on adult stages of A. aurita and M. leidyi exposed at oil concentration ≤25 µL L(-1) after 6 days. Survival of ephyra and cydippid larva decreased with increasing crude oil concentration and exposition time. The median lethal concentration (LC50) for ephyra larvae ranged from 14.41 to 0.15 µL L(-1) after 1 and 3 days, respectively. LC50 for cydippid larvae ranged from 14.52 to 8.94 µL L(-1) after 3 and 6 days, respectively. We observed selective bioaccumulation of chrysene, phenanthrene and pyrene in A. aurita and chrysene, pyrene, benzo[a]pyrene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, and benzo[a]anthracene in M. leidyi. Overall, our results indicate that (1) A. aurita and M. leidyi adults had a high tolerance to crude oil exposure compared to other zooplankton, whereas P. noctiluca was highly sensitive to crude oil, (2) larval stages of gelatinous zooplankton were more sensitive to crude oil than adult stages, and (3) some of the most toxic PAHs of crude oil can be bioaccumulated in gelatinous zooplankton and potentially be transferred up the food web and contaminate apex predators.

  4. Atypical Teratoid/Rhabdoid Tumor of the Sellar Region in an Adult With Long Survival: Case Report and Review of the Literature

    PubMed Central

    Almalki, Mussa Hussain; Alrogi, Ashjan; Al-Rabie, Abdulkarim; Al-Dandan, Sadeq; Altwairgi, Abdullah; Orz, Yasser

    2017-01-01

    Atypical teratoid/rhabdoid tumor (AT/RT) is a highly malignant central nervous system neoplasm usually diagnosed in young children, although it can occur in adults. Prognosis for AT/RT is poor, with a median survival of 10 - 11 months. We report a rare case of adult sellar and suprasellar AT/RT in a 36-year-old female patient. She was treated with multi-modalities including surgery, chemotherapy and radiation. She markedly improved following treatment with no recurrence in 3 years follow-up. To our knowledge, this is the 11th case of an adult-onset AT/RT in the sellar or suprasellar region with favorable long-term outcome. PMID:28179970

  5. Dispersal and survival of a polygynandrous passerine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Craig, Heather R.; Kendall, Steve J.; Wild, Teri C.; Powell, Abby N.

    2015-01-01

    Although sex biases in survival and dispersal are thought to be linked to avian mating systems, little is known about these demographic patterns in less common mating strategies such as polygynandry. We investigated breeding-site fidelity, natal philopatry, and apparent survival of the polygynandrous Smith's Longspur (Calcarius pictus) over a 7-yr period at 2 areas in Alaska's Brooks Range. We used capture–recapture histories of 243 color-banded adults and 431 juveniles to estimate annual survival and determined dispersal patterns from 34 adults that were found breeding within the study areas over multiple years. Most adults (88%) returned to nest in the same breeding neighborhood as in previous years; mean dispersal distance was 300.9 ± 74.2 m and did not differ between sexes. Juveniles exhibited low natal philopatry; only 4% of banded hatch-year birds were resighted as adults during subsequent years. Those that did return dispersed, on average, 1,674.4 ± 465.8 m from their natal nests (n = 6). Model-averaged survival estimates indicated that annual survival of adult females (50–58%) was only slightly lower than that of males (60–63%); juvenile survival was 41% but was paired with a low (13%) encounter probability. We attribute the lack of sex bias in adult dispersal to this species' polygynandrous mating strategy. Within this system, there are multiple mates within a breeding neighborhood. We argue that natural selection may favor females that remain on the same, familiar breeding site, because they do not have to disperse to a new area to find a suitable mate. Dispersal among breeding populations most likely occurs by juveniles returning as adults. Our findings support hypotheses that suggest a relationship between dispersal and mating strategy and provide some of the first insight into the demographic patterns of a polygynandrous passerine.

  6. Size-sex variation in survival rates and abundance of pig frogs, Rana grylio, in northern Florida wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, K.V.; Nichols, J.D.; Percival, H.F.; Hines, J.E.

    1998-01-01

    During 1991-1993, we conducted capture-recapture studies on pig frogs, Rana grylio, in seven study locations in northcentral Florida. Resulting data were used to test hypotheses about variation in survival probability over different size-sex classes of pig frogs. We developed multistate capture-recapture models for the resulting data and used them to estimate survival rates and frog abundance. Tests provided strong evidence of survival differences among size-sex classes, with adult females showing the highest survival probabilities. Adult males and juvenile frogs had lower survival rates that were similar to each other. Adult females were more abundant than adult males in most locations at most sampling occasions. We recommended probabilistic capture-recapture models in general, and multistate models in particular, for robust estimation of demographic parameters in amphibian populations.

  7. Bimolecular recombination reactions: K-adiabatic and K-active forms of RRKM theory, nonstatistical aspects, low-pressure rates, and time-dependent survival probabilities with application to ozone. 2.

    PubMed

    Ghaderi, Nima; Marcus, R A

    2014-11-06

    We consider for bimolecular recombination reactions the K-adiabatic versus the K-active forms of RRKM theory, where K is the component of the total angular momentum along the axis of least moment of inertia of the recombination product. When that product is approximately a prolate symmetric top, with two moments of inertia of the product substantially larger than the third, K becomes a dynamically slowly varying quantity and the K-adiabatic form of RRKM theory is the appropriate version to use. Using classical trajectory results for the rate constant for ozone formation in the low-pressure region as an example, excellent agreement for the recombination rate constant k(rec) with the K-adiabatic RRKM theory is observed. Use of a two transition state (inner, outer TS) formalism also obviates any need for assessing recrossings in the exit channel. In contrast, the K-active form of RRKM theory for this system disagrees with the trajectory results by a factor of about 2.5. In this study we also consider the distribution of the (E, J) resolved time-dependent survival probabilities P(E, J, t) of the intermediate O3* formed from O + O2. It is calculated using classical trajectories. The initial conditions for classical trajectories were selected using action-angle variables and a total J representation for (E, J) resolved systems, as described in Part I.1 The difference between K-active and K-adiabatic treatments is reflected also in a difference of the K-active RRKM survival probability P(E, J, t) from its trajectory-based value and from its often non-single-exponential decay. It is shown analytically that krec (K-active) ≥ k(rec) (K-adiabatic), independent of the details of the TS (e.g., variational or fixed RRKM theory, 1-TS or 2-TS). Nonstatistical effects for O3* formation include a small initial recrossing of the transition state, a slow (several picoseconds) equipartitioning of energy among the two O-O bonds of the newly formed O3*, and a small nondissociation (a

  8. The effects of acute and chronic administration of phosphatidylserine on cell proliferation and survival in the dentate gyrus of adult and middle-aged rats.

    PubMed

    Maragno, Heloisa; Rodella, Patricia; Silva Freitas, Josiane da; Fernando Takase, Luiz

    2015-06-03

    Phosphatidylserine (PS) is an acidic phospholipid that is widely used as an alternative and/or complementary treatment of cognitive impairments. We hypothesize that these changes may be attributable, at least in part, to alterations in hippocampal neurogenesis. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of acute and chronic PS administration on hippocampal cell proliferation and survival in adult (5 months old) and middle-aged (12 months old) male Wistar rats. PS was injected daily (50mg/kg, i.p.) during 7 days (acute experiment) or 21 days (chronic experiment). To label newly generated cells, rats received a single BrdU injection (200mg/kg, i.p.) one day before PS treatment. The object recognition test was performed, and the rats were perfused. The brains were removed and processed with immunohistochemistry techniques for Ki-67 (cell proliferation) and BrdU (cell survival). The acute and chronic regimens were unable to promote cognitive improvement in either age group in the object recognition test. The analysis of cell proliferation showed a significant increase in the number of Ki-67-positive cells after acute and chronic PS administration in both age groups. The analysis of cell survival showed that acute and chronic PS administration increased the number of BrdU-positive cells only in adult animals.

  9. Frequency of p190 and p210 BCR-ABL rearrangements and survival in Brazilian adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

    PubMed Central

    de França Azevedo, Ilana; da Silva Júnior, Rui Milton Patrício; de Vasconcelos, Audrey Violeta Martins; das Neves, Washington Batista; de Barros Correia Melo, Fárida Coeli; Melo, Raul Antônio Morais

    2014-01-01

    Objective This study investigated the occurrence of the p190 and p210 breakpoint cluster region-Abelson (BCR-ABL) rearrangements in adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and possible associations with clinical and laboratory characteristics and survival. Methods Forty-one over 18-year-old patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia of both genders followed-up between January 2008 and May 2012 were included in this study. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained from the medical charts of the patients. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using specific primers was employed to identify molecular rearrangements. Results At diagnosis, the median age was 33 years, and there was a predominance of males (61%). The most common immunophenotype was B lineage (76%). BCR-ABL rearrangements was detected in 14 (34%) patients with the following distribution: p190 (28%), p210 (50%) and double positive (22%). Overall survival of patients with a mean/median of 331/246 days of follow up was 39%, respectively, negative BCR-ABL (44%) and positive BCR-ABL (28%). Conclusion These results confirm the high frequency of BCR-ABL rearrangements and the low survival rate of adult Brazilian patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. PMID:25305168

  10. Systemic insecticides reduce feeding, survival, and fecundity of adult black vine weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) on a variety of ornamental nursery crops.

    PubMed

    Reding, Michael E; Ranger, Christopher M

    2011-04-01

    Systemic activity of the neonicotinoids clothianidin, dinotefuran, and thiamethoxam and the anthranilic diamide chlorantraniliprole was tested against adult black vine weevils, Otiorhynchus sulcatus (F.) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), on Astilbe, Euonymus, Heuchera, Rhododendron, Sedum, and Taxus. Insecticide treatments were applied to the soilless substrate of containerized plants. Bioassays were conducted 12 or 13, 26, and 42 d after treatment (DAT) and ran for 7 d; and feeding, mortality, and weight gain or loss by weevils were evaluated. Foliage was removed from test plants and then placed in arenas with adult black vine weevils. The neonicotinoids reduced feeding and weight gain by adult black vine weevils on most plant species with residual activity 42 DAT on some plant species. At 12 DAT, mortality was caused by the three neonicotinoids on Astilbe and by thiamethoxam on Sedum; and at 26 DAT dinotefuran caused mortality on Astilbe. Chlorantraniliprole reduced feeding on Taxus at 12 DAT, with no activity detected in other bioassays. Another set of bioassays was conducted to examine survival and fecundity of adult black vine weevils during prolonged feeding on Heuchera and Taxus systemically treated with dinotefuran or thiamethoxam. Bioassay procedures were similar to those described above, except they ran continuously for 56 d. Prolonged feeding on dinotefuran and thiamethoxam treated Heuchera and Taxus resulted in high mortality of adult black vine weevils and reduced fecundity. These studies show that the systemic activity of neonicotinoids is influenced by plant species and that systemic neonicotinoids have the potential to suppress black vine weevil populations in containerized nursery crops.

  11. Survivability Versus Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2014-01-01

    Develop Survivability vs Time Model as a decision-evaluation tool to assess various emergency egress methods used at Launch Complex 39B (LC 39B) and in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) on NASAs Kennedy Space Center. For each hazard scenario, develop probability distributions to address statistical uncertainty resulting in survivability plots over time and composite survivability plots encompassing multiple hazard scenarios.

  12. Patterns of practice and survival in a retrospective analysis of 1722 adult astrocytoma patients treated between 1985 and 2001 in 12 Italian radiation oncology centers

    SciTech Connect

    Magrini, Stefano Maria . E-mail: magrini@med.unibs.it; Ricardi, Umberto; Santoni, Riccardo; Krengli, Marco; Lupattelli, Marco; Cafaro, Ines; Scoccianti, Silvia; Menichelli, Claudia; Bertoni, Filippo; Enrici, Riccardo Maurizi; Tombolini, Vincenzo; Buglione, Michela; Pirtoli, Luigi

    2006-07-01

    Purpose: To analyze the patterns of practice and survival in a series of 1722 adult astrocytoma patients treated in 12 Italian radiotherapy centers. Methods and Materials: A total of 1722 patients were treated with postoperative radiotherapy (90% World Health Organization [WHO] Grade 3-4, 62% male, 44% aged >60 years, 25% with severe neurologic deficits, 44% after gross total resection, 52% with high-dose radiotherapy, and 16% with chemotherapy). Variations in the clinical-therapeutic features in three subsequent periods (1985 through 2001) were evaluated, along with overall survival for the different subgroups. Results: The proportion of women, of older patients, of those with worse neurologic performance status (NPS), with WHO Grade 4, and with smaller tumors increased with time, as did the proportion of those treated with radical surgery, hypofractionated radiotherapy, and more sophisticated radiotherapy techniques, after staging procedures progressively became more accurate. The main prognostic factors for overall survival were age, sex, neurologic performance status, WHO grade, extent of surgery, and radiation dose. Conclusions: Recently, broader selection criteria for radiotherapy were adopted, together with simpler techniques, smaller total doses, and larger fraction sizes for the worse prognostic categories. Younger, fit patients are treated more aggressively, more often in association with chemotherapy. Survival did not change over time. The accurate evaluation of neurologic status is therefore of utmost importance before the best treatment option for the individual patient is chosen.

  13. Androgens increase survival of adult-born neurons in the dentate gyrus by an androgen receptor-dependent mechanism in male rats.

    PubMed

    Hamson, D K; Wainwright, S R; Taylor, J R; Jones, B A; Watson, N V; Galea, L A M

    2013-09-01

    Gonadal steroids are potent regulators of adult neurogenesis. We previously reported that androgens, such as testosterone (T) and dihydrotestosterone (DHT), but not estradiol, increased the survival of new neurons in the dentate gyrus of the male rat. These results suggest androgens regulate hippocampal neurogenesis via the androgen receptor (AR). To test this supposition, we examined the role of ARs in hippocampal neurogenesis using 2 different approaches. In experiment 1, we examined neurogenesis in male rats insensitive to androgens due to a naturally occurring mutation in the gene encoding the AR (termed testicular feminization mutation) compared with wild-type males. In experiment 2, we injected the AR antagonist, flutamide, into castrated male rats and compared neurogenesis levels in the dentate gyrus of DHT and oil-treated controls. In experiment 1, chronic T increased hippocampal neurogenesis in wild-type males but not in androgen-insensitive testicular feminization mutation males. In experiment 2, DHT increased hippocampal neurogenesis via cell survival, an effect that was blocked by concurrent treatment with flutamide. DHT, however, did not affect cell proliferation. Interestingly, cells expressing doublecortin, a marker of immature neurons, did not colabel with ARs in the dentate gyrus, but ARs were robustly expressed in other regions of the hippocampus. Together these studies provide complementary evidence that androgens regulate adult neurogenesis in the hippocampus via the AR but at a site other than the dentate gyrus. Understanding where in the brain androgens act to increase the survival of new neurons in the adult brain may have implications for neurodegenerative disorders.

  14. Green tea compound epigallo-catechin-3-gallate (EGCG) increases neuronal survival in adult hippocampal neurogenesis in vivo and in vitro.

    PubMed

    Ortiz-López, L; Márquez-Valadez, B; Gómez-Sánchez, A; Silva-Lucero, M D C; Torres-Pérez, M; Téllez-Ballesteros, R I; Ichwan, M; Meraz-Ríos, M A; Kempermann, G; Ramírez-Rodríguez, G B

    2016-05-13

    Epigallo-catechin-3-gallate (EGCG), found in the leaves of Camellia sinensis (green tea), has antioxidant- and scavenger-functions and acts neuroprotectively. It has been publicized as anti-aging remedy but data on potential cellular mechanisms are scarce. Recent studies claimed that EGCG specifically promotes neural precursor cell proliferation in the dentate gyrus of C57Bl/6 mice, without changes at the level of immature and mature new neurons. We here analyzed the effects of EGCG on adult hippocampal neurogenesis in male Balb/C mice and saw a different pattern. Two weeks of treatment with EGCG (0, 0.625, 1.25, 2.5, 5 and 10mg/kg) showed a dose-response curve that peaked at 2.5mg/kg of EGCG with significantly increased cell survival without affecting cell proliferation but decreasing apoptotic cells. Also, EGCG increased the population of doublecortin-(DCX)-expressing cells that comprises the late intermediate progenitor cells (type-2b and -3) as well as immature neurons. After EGCG treatment, the young DCX-positive neurons showed more elaborated dendritic trees. EGCG also significantly increased net neurogenesis in the adult hippocampus and increased the hippocampal levels of phospho-Akt. Ex vivo, EGCG exerted a direct effect on survival and neuronal differentiation of adult hippocampal precursor cells, which was absent, when PI3K, a protein upstream of Akt, was blocked. Our results thus support a pro-survival and a pro-neurogenic role of EGCG. In the context of the conflicting published results, however, potential genetic modifiers must be assumed. These might help to explain the overall variability of study results with EGCG. Our data do indicate, however, that natural compounds such as EGCG can in principle modulate brain plasticity.

  15. Temperature seasonality during fry out-migration influences the survival of hatchery-reared chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta.

    PubMed

    Morita, K; Nakashima, A

    2015-10-01

    Among years, fry-to-adult survival of hatchery-reared chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta was positively correlated with the length (in days) of the fry out-migration period with temperatures suitable for migration. Furthermore, survival decreased with increasing difference in mean temperature between May and June. Thus, prolonged out-migration periods increased the probability of survival from fry to adult, lending support to the hypothesis that long migration periods decrease the risk of mortality (bet-hedging), and increase the probability of migration when environmental conditions in fresh water and the ocean are suitable (match-mismatch).

  16. Effects of Crude Oil Exposure on Bioaccumulation of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Survival of Adult and Larval Stages of Gelatinous Zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Almeda, Rodrigo; Wambaugh, Zoe; Chai, Chao; Wang, Zucheng; Liu, Zhanfei; Buskey, Edward J.

    2013-01-01

    Gelatinous zooplankton play an important role in marine food webs both as major consumers of metazooplankton and as prey of apex predators (e.g., tuna, sunfish, sea turtles). However, little is known about the effects of crude oil spills on these important components of planktonic communities. We determined the effects of Louisiana light sweet crude oil exposure on survival and bioaccumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in adult stages of the scyphozoans Pelagia noctiluca and Aurelia aurita and the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi, and on survival of ephyra larvae of A. aurita and cydippid larvae of M. leidyi, in the laboratory. Adult P. noctiluca showed 100% mortality at oil concentration ≥20 µL L−1 after 16 h. In contrast, low or non-lethal effects were observed on adult stages of A. aurita and M. leidyi exposed at oil concentration ≤25 µL L−1 after 6 days. Survival of ephyra and cydippid larva decreased with increasing crude oil concentration and exposition time. The median lethal concentration (LC50) for ephyra larvae ranged from 14.41 to 0.15 µL L−1 after 1 and 3 days, respectively. LC50 for cydippid larvae ranged from 14.52 to 8.94 µL L−1 after 3 and 6 days, respectively. We observed selective bioaccumulation of chrysene, phenanthrene and pyrene in A. aurita and chrysene, pyrene, benzo[a]pyrene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, and benzo[a]anthracene in M. leidyi. Overall, our results indicate that (1) A. aurita and M. leidyi adults had a high tolerance to crude oil exposure compared to other zooplankton, whereas P. noctiluca was highly sensitive to crude oil, (2) larval stages of gelatinous zooplankton were more sensitive to crude oil than adult stages, and (3) some of the most toxic PAHs of crude oil can be bioaccumulated in gelatinous zooplankton and potentially be transferred up the food web and contaminate apex predators. PMID:24116004

  17. Anthropogenic host plant expansion leads a nettle-feeding butterfly out of the forest: consequences for larval survival and developmental plasticity in adult morphology

    PubMed Central

    Merckx, Thomas; Serruys, Mélanie; Van Dyck, Hans

    2015-01-01

    Recent anthropogenic eutrophication has meant that host plants of nettle-feeding insects became quasi-omnipresent in fertile regions of Western Europe. However, host plant resource quality – in terms of microclimate and nutritional value – may vary considerably between the ‘original’ forest habitat and ‘recent’ agricultural habitat. Here, we compared development in both environmental settings using a split-brood design, so as to explore to what extent larval survival and adult morphology in the nettle-feeding butterfly Aglais urticae are influenced by the anthropogenic environment. Nettles along field margins had higher C/N ratios and provided warmer microclimates to larvae. Larvae developed 20% faster and tended to improve their survival rates, on the agricultural land compared to woodland. Our split-brood approach indicated plastic responses within families, but also family effects in the phenotypic responses. Adult males and females had darker wing pigmentation in the drier and warmer agricultural environment, which contrasts with the thermal melanism hypothesis. Developmental plasticity in response to this microclimatically different and more variable habitat was associated with a broader phenotypic parameter space for the species. Both habitat expansion and developmental plasticity are likely contributors to the ecological and evolutionary success of these nettle-feeding insects in anthropogenic environments under high nitrogen load. PMID:25926881

  18. Adult-onset deficiency in growth hormone and insulin-like growth factor-I decreases survival of dentate granule neurons: insights into the regulation of adult hippocampal neurogenesis.

    PubMed

    Lichtenwalner, Robin J; Forbes, M Elizabeth; Sonntag, William E; Riddle, David R

    2006-02-01

    Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), long thought to provide critical trophic support during development, also has emerged as a candidate for regulating ongoing neuronal production in adulthood. Whether and how IGF-I influences each phase of neurogenesis, however, remains unclear. In the current study, we used a selective model of growth hormone (GH) and plasma IGF-I deficiency to evaluate the role of GH and IGF-I in regulating cell proliferation, survival, and neuronal differentiation in the adult dentate gyrus. GH/IGF-I-deficient dwarf rats of the Lewis strain were made GH/IGF-I replete throughout development via twice daily injections of GH, and then GH/IGF-I deficiency was initiated in adulthood by removing animals from GH treatment. Bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) labeling revealed no effect of GH/IGF-I deficiency on cell proliferation, but adult-onset depletion of GH and plasma IGF-I significantly reduced the survival of newly generated cells in the dentate gyrus. Colabeling for BrdU and markers of immature and mature neurons revealed a selective effect of GH/IGF-I deficiency on the survival of more mature new neurons. The number of BrdU-labeled cells expressing the immature neuronal marker TUC-4 did not differ between GH/IGF-I-deficient and -replete animals, but the number expressing only the marker of maturity NeuN was lower in depleted animals. Taken together, results from the present study suggest that, under conditions of short-term GH/IGF-I deficiency during adulthood, dentate granule cells continue to be produced, to commit to a neuronal fate, and to begin the process of neuronal maturation, whereas survival of the new neurons is impaired.

  19. Allogeneic, but not autologous, hematopoietic cell transplantation improves survival only among younger adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in first remission: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Vikas; Richards, Sue; Rowe, Jacob

    2013-01-10

    Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) and prolonged chemotherapy are standard postremission strategies for adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia in first complete remission, but the optimal strategy remains controversial. There are no randomized trials of allogeneic HCT. In the present study, updated individual patient data were collected and analyzed from studies with information on availability of matched sibling donor (used to mimic randomization) and from randomized trials of autograft versus chemotherapy. Data from 13 studies including 2962 patients, excluding Philadelphia chromosome-positive patients, showed a survival benefit for having a matched sibling donor for patients < 35 years of age (OR = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70-0.90, P = .0003) but not for those ≥ 35 years of age (OR = 1.01; 95% CI, 0.85-1.19, P = .9; heterogeneity P = .03) because of the higher absolute risk of nonrelapse mortality for older patients. No differences were seen by risk group. There was a trend toward inferior survival for autograft versus chemotherapy (OR = 1.18; 95% CI, 0.99-1.41; P = .06). No beneficial effect of autografting was seen compared with chemotherapy in this analysis. We conclude that matched sibling donor myeloablative HCT improves survival only for younger patients, with an absolute benefit of approximately 10% at 5 years. Improved chemotherapy outcomes and reduced nonrelapse mortality associated with allogeneic HCT may change the relative effects of these treatments in the future.

  20. Possible benefit of consolidation therapy with high-dose cytarabine on overall survival of adults with non-promyelocytic acute myeloid leukemia.

    PubMed

    Azevedo, M C; Velloso, E D R P; Buccheri, V; Chamone, D A F; Dorlhiac-Llacer, P E

    2015-02-01

    In adults with non-promyelocytic acute myeloid leukemia (AML), high-dose cytarabine consolidation therapy has been shown to influence survival in selected patients, although the appropriate doses and schemes have not been defined. We evaluated survival after calculating the actual dose of cytarabine that patients received for consolidation therapy and divided them into 3 groups according to dose. We conducted a single-center, retrospective study involving 311 non-promyelocytic AML patients with a median age of 36 years (16-79 years) who received curative treatment between 1978 and 2007. The 131 patients who received cytarabine consolidation were assigned to study groups by their cytarabine dose protocol. Group 1 (n=69) received <1.5 g/m2 every 12 h on 3 alternate days for up to 4 cycles. The remaining patients received high-dose cytarabine (≥1.5 g/m2 every 12 h on 3 alternate days for up to 4 cycles). The actual dose received during the entire consolidation period in these patients was calculated, allowing us to divide these patients into 2 additional groups. Group 2 (n=27) received an intermediate-high-dose (<27 g/m2), and group 3 (n=35) received a very-high-dose (≥27 g/m2). Among the 311 patients receiving curative treatment, the 5-year survival rate was 20.2% (63 patients). The cytarabine consolidation dose was an independent determinant of survival in multivariate analysis; age, karyotype, induction protocol, French-American-British classification, and de novo leukemia were not. Comparisons showed that the risk of death was higher in the intermediate-high-dose group 2 (hazard ratio [HR]=4.51; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.81-11.21) and the low-dose group 1 (HR=4.43; 95% CI: 1.97-9.96) than in the very-high-dose group 3, with no significant difference between those two groups. Our findings indicated that very-high-dose cytarabine during consolidation in adults with non-promyelocytic AML may improve survival.

  1. Possible benefit of consolidation therapy with high-dose cytarabine on overall survival of adults with non-promyelocytic acute myeloid leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Azevedo, M.C.; Velloso, E.D.R.P.; Buccheri, V.; Chamone, D.A.F.; Dorlhiac-Llacer, P.E.

    2014-01-01

    In adults with non-promyelocytic acute myeloid leukemia (AML), high-dose cytarabine consolidation therapy has been shown to influence survival in selected patients, although the appropriate doses and schemes have not been defined. We evaluated survival after calculating the actual dose of cytarabine that patients received for consolidation therapy and divided them into 3 groups according to dose. We conducted a single-center, retrospective study involving 311 non-promyelocytic AML patients with a median age of 36 years (16-79 years) who received curative treatment between 1978 and 2007. The 131 patients who received cytarabine consolidation were assigned to study groups by their cytarabine dose protocol. Group 1 (n=69) received <1.5 g/m2 every 12 h on 3 alternate days for up to 4 cycles. The remaining patients received high-dose cytarabine (≥1.5 g/m2 every 12 h on 3 alternate days for up to 4 cycles). The actual dose received during the entire consolidation period in these patients was calculated, allowing us to divide these patients into 2 additional groups. Group 2 (n=27) received an intermediate-high-dose (<27 g/m2), and group 3 (n=35) received a very-high-dose (≥27 g/m2). Among the 311 patients receiving curative treatment, the 5-year survival rate was 20.2% (63 patients). The cytarabine consolidation dose was an independent determinant of survival in multivariate analysis; age, karyotype, induction protocol, French-American-British classification, and de novo leukemia were not. Comparisons showed that the risk of death was higher in the intermediate-high-dose group 2 (hazard ratio [HR]=4.51; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.81-11.21) and the low-dose group 1 (HR=4.43; 95% CI: 1.97-9.96) than in the very-high-dose group 3, with no significant difference between those two groups. Our findings indicated that very-high-dose cytarabine during consolidation in adults with non-promyelocytic AML may improve survival. PMID:25517921

  2. Effects of Antiretroviral Therapy on the Survival of Human Immunodeficiency Virus-positive Adult Patients in Andhra Pradesh, India: A Retrospective Cohort Study, 2007-2013

    PubMed Central

    Chaturvedi, Himanshu; Jayaseelan, Lakshmanan; Harvey, Pauline; Seguy, Nicole; Chavan, Laxmikant; Raj, Pinnamaneni; Pandey, Arvind

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The survival outcomes of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs have not been systematically evaluated at the state level in India. This retrospective study assessed the survival rates and factors associated with survival among adult human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients in Andhra Pradesh, India. Methods The present study used data from 139 679 HIV patients aged ≥15 years on ART who were registered from 2007 to 2011 and were followed up through December 2013. The primary end point was death of the patient. Mortality densities (per 1000 person-years) were calculated. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression models were used to estimate survival and explore the factors associated with survival. Results The overall median follow-up time was 16.0 months (2.0 months for the deceased and 14.0 months for those lost to follow-up). Approximately 13.2% of those newly initiated on ART died during follow-up. Of those deaths, 56% occurred in the first three months. The crude mortality rate was 80.9 per 1000 person-years at risk. The CD4 count (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR],4.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.36 to 5.46 for <100 cells/mm3 vs. >350 cells/mm3), functional status (aHR, 3.05; 95% CI, 2.82 to 3.30 for bedridden vs. normal), and body weight (aHR, 3.69; 95% CI, 3.42 to 3.97 for <45 kg vs. >60 kg) were strongly associated with the survival of HIV patients. Conclusions The study findings revealed that high mortality was observed within the first three months of ART initiation. Patients with poor baseline clinical characteristics had a higher risk of mortality. Expanded testing and counseling should be encouraged, with the goal of ensuring early enrollment into the program followed by the initiation of ART in HIV-infected patients. PMID:27951632

  3. Young adult donor bone marrow infusions into female mice postpone age-related reproductive failure and improve offspring survival.

    PubMed

    Selesniemi, Kaisa; Lee, Ho-Joon; Niikura, Teruko; Tilly, Jonathan L

    2008-11-14

    The female reproductive axis is the first major organ system of the body to fail with advancing age. In addition to a permanent cessation of fertile potential, the loss of cyclic ovarian function in humans heralds the onset of menopause, which in turn underlies the emergence of a diverse spectrum of health issues in aging women. Recently, it was reported that bone marrow (BM) transplantation (BMT) into adult female mice conditioned a week earlier with highly cytotoxic drugs rescues ovarian function and fertility. Herein we show in mice receiving no prior conditioning regimen that once-monthly infusions of BM-derived cells retrieved from young adult female donors bearing an enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) transgene sustain the fertile potential of aging wild-type females long past their time of normal reproductive senescence. The fertility-promoting effects of female donor BM are observed regardless whether the infusions are initiated in young adult or middle-aged females. Although the mechanism by which BM infusions benefit the reproductive performance of aging females remains to be elucidated, the absence of EGFP-expressing offspring suggests that it does not depend on development of mature eggs derived from germline-committed cells in the donor marrow. However, donor BM-derived somatic cells accumulate in the recipients, indicating efficient donor cell engraftment without prior conditioning. These findings provide a strong impetus to further explore development of adult stem cell-based technologies to safely extend function of the female reproductive axis into advanced age without the need for toxic pre-conditioning protocols routinely used in other models of stem cell delivery.

  4. Determinants of survival in adult HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in Eastern Uttar Pradesh: A prospective study

    PubMed Central

    Chakravarty, Jaya; Tiwary, Narendra K.; Prasad, Shashi Ranjan; Shukla, Saurabh; Tiwari, Anurag; Mishra, Rabindra Nath; Sundar, Shyam

    2014-01-01

    Background & objectives: The National AIDS Control Organization (NACO) of India has been providing free ARV (antiretroviral) drugs since 2004. By 2012, 486,173 patients had received treatment through the antiretroviral therapy (ART) centres. The objective of this observational study was to assess the factors determining survival of patients on ART under routine programme conditions in an ART centre in north India five years after its inception. Methods: Treatment naive HIV positive patients who were enrolled in the ART centre between May 2009 and May 2010 and started on ART as per the Revised NACO guidelines 2009, were included in the study and outcome was assessed after two years of follow up. Results: A total of 1689 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 272 (16.10%) expired, 205 (12.13%) were lost to follow up (LFU), 526 (31.14%) were transferred out to other facilities and 686 (40.63%) were alive at the end of two years. Majority (92%) of the deaths occurred in the first six months of therapy. Age >30 yr, male gender, poor functional status, haemoglobin level <11 g/dl, body weight <45 kg and CD4 count <100/μl at baseline had significantly higher relative hazard of death. Most LFU also occurred in the first six months and these patients had significantly low CD4 count, weight, haemoglobin level and higher number of patients in Stages III and IV as compared to those who survived. Interpretation & conclusions: The study findings revealed poor survival in the first six months of therapy especially in those with severe immunosuppression. This emphasizes the need for early enrolment into the programme. The high LFU occurring early after initiation of therapy suggests the urgent need to build an efficient patient retrieval system in the programme. PMID:25488442

  5. Extent of resection of peritumoral diffusion tensor imaging-detected abnormality as a predictor of survival in adult glioblastoma patients.

    PubMed

    Yan, Jiun-Lin; van der Hoorn, Anouk; Larkin, Timothy J; Boonzaier, Natalie R; Matys, Tomasz; Price, Stephen J

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) has been shown to detect tumor invasion in glioblastoma patients and has been applied in surgical planning. However, the clinical value of the extent of resection based on DTI is unclear. Therefore, the correlation between the extent of resection of DTI abnormalities and patients' outcome was retrospectively reviewed. METHODS A review was conducted of 31 patients with newly diagnosed supratentorial glioblastoma who underwent standard 5-aminolevulinic acid-aided surgery with the aim of maximal resection of the enhancing tumor component. All patients underwent presurgical MRI, including volumetric postcontrast T1-weighted imaging, DTI, and FLAIR. Postsurgical anatomical MR images were obtained within 72 hours of resection. The diffusion tensor was split into an isotropic (p) and anisotropic (q) component. The extent of resection was measured for the abnormal area on the p, q, FLAIR, and postcontrast T1-weighted images. Data were analyzed in relation to patients' outcome using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models controlling for possible confounding factors including age, O(6)-methylguanine-DNA-methyltrans-ferase methylation status, and isocitrate dehydrogenase-1 mutation. RESULTS Complete resection of the enhanced tumor shown on the postcontrast T1-weighted images was achieved in 24 of 31 patients (77%). The mean extent of resection of the abnormal p, q, and FLAIR areas was 57%, 83%, and 59%, respectively. Increased resection of the abnormal p and q areas correlated positively with progression-free survival (p = 0.009 and p = 0.006, respectively). Additionally, a larger, residual, abnormal q volume predicted significantly shorter time to progression (p = 0.008). More extensive resection of the abnormal q and contrast-enhanced area improved overall survival (p = 0.041 and 0.050, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Longer progression-free survival and overall survival were seen in glioblastoma patients in whom more DTI

  6. TGF-β Is Required for Vascular Barrier Function, Endothelial Survival and Homeostasis of the Adult Microvasculature

    PubMed Central

    Maharaj, Arindel S. R.; Sekiyama, Eiichi; Maldonado, Angel E.; D'Amore, Patricia A.

    2009-01-01

    Pericyte-endothelial cell (EC) interactions are critical to both vascular development and vessel stability. We have previously shown that TGF-β signaling between EC and mural cells participates in vessel stabilization in vitro. We therefore investigated the role of TGF-β signaling in maintaining microvessel structure and function in the adult mouse retinal microvasculature. TGF-β signaling was inhibited by systemic expression of soluble endoglin (sEng) and inhibition was demonstrated by reduced phospho-smad2 in the adult retina. Blockade of TGF-β signaling led to increased vascular and neural cell apoptosis in the retina, which was associated with decreased retinal function, as measured by electroretinogram (ERG). Perfusion of the inner retinal vasculature was impaired and was accompanied by defective autoregulation and loss of capillary integrity. Fundus angiography and Evans blue permeability assay revealed a breakdown of the blood-retinal-barrier that was characterized by decreased association between the tight junction proteins zo-1 and occludin. Inhibition of TGF-β signaling in cocultures of EC and 10T1/2 cells corroborated the in vivo findings, with impaired EC barrier function, dissociation of EC from 10T1/2 cells, and endothelial cell death, supporting the role of EC-mesenchymal interactions in TGF-β signaling. These results implicate constitutive TGF-β signaling in maintaining the integrity and function of the adult microvasculature and shed light on the potential role of TGF-β signaling in vasoproliferative and vascular degenerative retinal diseases. PMID:19340291

  7. Risk Factors for Mortality among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Following Antiretroviral Therapy in Southwestern Ethiopia: An Assessment through Survival Models

    PubMed Central

    Seyoum, Dinberu; Degryse, Jean-Marie; Kifle, Yehenew Getachew; Taye, Ayele; Tadesse, Mulualem; Birlie, Belay; Banbeta, Akalu; Rosas-Aguirre, Angel; Duchateau, Luc; Speybroeck, Niko

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Efforts have been made to reduce HIV/AIDS-related mortality by delivering antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment. However, HIV patients in resource-poor settings are still dying, even if they are on ART treatment. This study aimed to explore the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Southwestern Ethiopia. Method: A non-concurrent retrospective cohort study which collected data from the clinical records of adult HIV/AIDS patients, who initiated ART treatment and were followed between January 2006 and December 2010, was conducted, to explore the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality at Jimma University Specialized Hospital (JUSH). Survival times (i.e., the time from the onset of ART treatment to the death or censoring) and different characteristics of patients were retrospectively examined. A best-fit model was chosen for the survival data, after the comparison between native semi-parametric Cox regression and parametric survival models (i.e., exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic). Result: A total of 456 HIV patients were included in the study, mostly females (312, 68.4%), with a median age of 30 years (inter-quartile range (IQR): 23–37 years). Estimated follow-up until December 2010 accounted for 1245 person-years at risk (PYAR) and resulted in 66 (14.5%) deaths and 390 censored individuals, representing a median survival time of 34.0 months ( IQR: 22.8–42.0 months). The overall mortality rate was 5.3/100 PYAR: 6.5/100 PYAR for males and 4.8/100 PYAR for females. The Weibull survival model was the best model for fitting the data (lowest AIC). The main factors associated with mortality were: baseline age (>35 years old, AHR = 3.8, 95% CI: 1.6–9.1), baseline weight (AHR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.90–0.97), baseline WHO stage IV (AHR = 6.2, 95% CI: 2.2–14.2), and low adherence to ART treatment (AHR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.5–7.1). Conclusion: An effective reduction in HIV/AIDS mortality could be achieved through timely ART

  8. Long-term survival and regeneration of neuronal and vasculature cells inside the core region after ischemic stroke in adult mice.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Michael Qize; Zhao, Ying-Ying; Cao, Wenyuan; Wei, Zheng Zachory; Gu, Xiaohuan; Wei, Ling; Yu, Shan Ping

    2016-08-11

    Focal cerebral ischemia results in an ischemic core surrounded by the peri-infarct region (penumbra). Most research attention has been focused on penumbra while the pattern of cell fates inside the ischemic core is poorly defined. In the present investigation, we tested the hypothesis that, inside the ischemic core, some neuronal and vascular cells could survive the initial ischemic insult while regenerative niches might exist many days after stroke in the adult brain. Adult mice were subjected to focal cerebral ischemia induced by permanent occlusion of distal branches of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) plus transient ligations of bilateral common carotid artery (CCA). The ischemic insult uniformly reduced the local cerebral blood flow (LCBF) by 90%. Massive cell death occurred due to multiple mechanisms and a significant infarction was cultivated in the ischemic cortex 24 h later. Nevertheless, normal or even higher levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) persistently remained in the core tissue, some NeuN-positive and Glut-1/College IV-positive cells with intact ultrastructural features resided in the core 7-14 days post stroke. BrdU-positive but TUNEL-negative neuronal and endothelial cells were detected in the core where extensive extracellular matrix infrastructure developed. Meanwhile, GFAP-positive astrocytes accumulated in the penumbra and Iba-1-positive microglial/macrophages invaded the core several days after stroke. The long term survival of neuronal and vascular cells inside the ischemic core was also seen after a severe ischemic stroke induced by permanent embolic occlusion of the MCA. We demonstrate that a therapeutic intervention of pharmacological hypothermia could save neurons/endothelial cells inside the core. These data suggest that the ischemic core is an actively regulated brain region with residual and newly formed viable neuronal and vascular cells acutely and chronically after at

  9. Survival estimates for Florida manatees from the photo-identification of individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Edwards, H.H.; Fick-Child, K. J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Barton, S.L.; Hartley, W.C.

    2004-01-01

    We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four regional populations using photo-identification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727-0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827-0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946-0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.

  10. Reporting errors in siblings' survival histories and their impact on adult mortality estimates: results from a record linkage study in Senegal.

    PubMed

    Helleringer, Stéphane; Pison, Gilles; Kanté, Almamy M; Duthé, Géraldine; Andro, Armelle

    2014-04-01

    Estimates of adult mortality in countries with limited vital registration (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa) are often derived from information about the survival of a respondent's siblings. We evaluated the completeness and accuracy of such data through a record linkage study conducted in Bandafassi, located in southeastern Senegal. We linked at the individual level retrospective siblings' survival histories (SSH) reported by female respondents (n = 268) to prospective mortality data and genealogies collected through a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS). Respondents often reported inaccurate lists of siblings. Additions to these lists were uncommon, but omissions were frequent: respondents omitted 3.8 % of their live sisters, 9.1 % of their deceased sisters, and 16.6 % of their sisters who had migrated out of the DSS area. Respondents underestimated the age at death of the siblings they reported during the interview, particularly among siblings who had died at older ages (≥45 years). Restricting SSH data to person-years and events having occurred during a recent reference period reduced list errors but not age and date errors. Overall, SSH data led to a 20 % underestimate of 45 q 15 relative to HDSS data. Our study suggests new quality improvement strategies for SSH data and demonstrates the potential use of HDSS data for the validation of "unconventional" demographic techniques.

  11. Effects of salinity on egg and fecal pellet production, development and survival, adult sex ratio and total life span in the calanoid copepod, Acartia tonsa: a laboratory study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shayegan, Majid; Esmaeili Fereidouni, Abolghasem; Agh, Naser; Jani Khalili, Khosrow

    2016-07-01

    The effects of salinity on the copepod, Acartia tonsa in terms of daily egg production rate (EPR), hatching success, fecal pellet production rate (FPR), naupliar development time and survival, sex ratio, and total life span were determined in laboratory conditions through three experiments. In experiment 1, EPR, hatching success, and FPR of individual females were monitored at salinities of 13, 20, 35 and 45 during short-periods (seven consecutive days). Results show EPR was affected by salinity with the highest outputs recorded at 20 and 35, respectively, which were considerably higher than those at 13 and 45. Mean FPR was also higher in 35 and 20. In experiment 2, the same parameters were evaluated over total life span of females (long-term study). The best EPR and FPR were observed in 35, which was statistically higher than at 13 and 20. In experiment 3, survival rates of early nauplii until adult stage were lowest at a salinity of 13. The development time increased with increasing of salinity. Female percentage clearly decreased with increasing salinity. Higher female percentages (56.7% and 52.2%, respectively) were significantly observed at two salinities of 13 and 20 compared to that at 35 (25%). Total longevity of females was not affected by salinity increment. Based on our results, for mass culture we recommend that a salinity of 35 be adopted due to higher reproductive performances, better feeding, and faster development of A. tonsa.

  12. Survival and behavioral effects of exposure to a hydrokinetic turbine on juvenile Atlantic salmon and adult American shad

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Castro-Santos, Theodore R.; Haro, Alex

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a series of experiments designed to measure the effect of exposure to a full-scale, vertical axis hydrokinetic turbine on downstream migrating juvenile Atlantic salmon (N=75) and upstream migrating adult American shad (N=208). Controlled studies were performed in a large-scale, open-channel flume, and all individuals approached the turbine under volitional control. No injuries were observed, and there was no measurable increase in mortality associated with turbine passage. Exposure to the turbine elicited behavioral responses from both species, however, with salmon passing primarily over the downrunning blades. Shad movement was impeded by the device, as indicated by fewer attempts of shorter duration and reduced distance of ascent up the flume. More work should be performed in both laboratory and field conditions to determine to what extent these effects are likely to influence free-swimming fish.

  13. Postfledging survival of European starlings

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1989-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that mass at fledging and fledge date within the breeding season affect postfledging survival in European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Nestlings were weighed on day 18 after hatch and tagged with individually identifiable patagial tags. Fledge date was recorded. Marked fledglings were resighted during weekly two-day intensive observation periods for 9 weeks postfledging. Post-fledging survival and sighting probabilities were estimated for each of four groups (early or late fledging by heavy or light fledging mass). Body mass was related to post-fledging survival for birds that fledged early. Results were not clear-cut for relative fledge date, although there was weak evidence that this also influenced survival. Highest survival probability estimates occurred in the EARLY-HEAVY group, while the lowest survival estimate occurred in the LATE-LIGHT group. Sighting probabilities differed significantly among groups, emphasizing the need to estimate and compare survival using models which explicitly incorporate sighting probabilities.

  14. A New Harmonized Approach to Estimate Busulfan Exposure Predicts Survival and Toxicity after Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Children and Young Adults: a Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Bartelink, I.H.; Lalmohamed, Arief; van Reij, Elisabeth M.L.; Dvorak, Chris C.; Savic, Rada M.; Zwaveling, Juliette; Bredius, Robbert. G.M.; Egberts, Antoine C.G.; Bierings, M.; Kletzel, M.; Shaw, Peter J.; Nath, Christa E.; Hempel, George; Ansari, M.; Krajinovic, M.; Theoret, Yves; Duval, Michel; Keizer, Ron J.; Bittencourt, Henriette; Hassan, Moustapha; Güngör, Tayfun; Wynn, Robert F.; Veys, Paul; Cuvelier, Geoff D.E.; Marktel, Sarah; Chiesa, Robert; Cowan, Morton J.; Slatter, Mary A.; Stricherz, Melisa K.; Jennissen, Cathryn; Long-Boyle, Janel R.; Boelens, Jaap Jan

    2016-01-01

    Background Intravenous-busulfan (IV-busulfan) combined with therapeutic drug monitoring to guide dosing improves outcomes after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT). The best method to estimate busulfan exposure and the optimal exposure in children/young adults remains unclear. We therefore evaluated three approaches to estimate IV-Bu exposure (expressed as cumulative-area-under-the-curve; AUC) and associated busulfan-AUC with clinical outcomes in children/young adults undergoing allo-HCT. Methods In this retrospective analysis, patients (0.1–30.4 years) receiving busulfan-based conditioning regimen from 15 centers were included. Cumulative AUC was calculated by numerical integration using non-linear mixed effect modeling (AUCNONMEM), non-compartmental analysis (AUC0-infinity and AUC to the end of the dose interval AUC0-tau) and by individual centers using a variety of approaches (AUCcenter). Main outcome of interest was event-free survival (EFS). Other outcomes of interest were overall survival, graft-failure, relapse, transplantation related mortality (TRM), acute toxicity (veno-occlusive disease (VOD) and/or acute graft versus-host disease (aGvHD), chronic GvHD (cGvHD) and cGVHD-free event-free survival (GEFS). Propensity score adjusted cox proportional hazard models, Weibull models, and Fine-Gray competing risk regressions were used. Results 674 patients were included (41% malignant, 59% non-malignant) Estimated 2-year EFS was 69.7%. The median busulfan AUCNONMEM was 74.4 mg*h/L (CI95% 31.1–104.6 mg*h/L). The median AUCNONMEM correlated poorly with AUCcenter (R2 = 0.254). Patients with optimal IV-busulfan AUC of 78–101 mg*h/L showed 81% EFS at 2 years compared to 66.1% and 49.5% in the low (<78 mg*h/L) and high (>101 mg*h/L) busulfan AUC group respectively (P=0.011). Graft-failure/relapse occurred more frequently in the low AUC group (HR=1.75 P<0.001). Acute toxicity, cGvHD and TRM was significantly higher in the high AUC group (HR 1

  15. Attraction, Oviposition and Larval Survival of the Fungus Gnat, Lycoriella ingenua, on Fungal Species Isolated from Adults, Larvae, and Mushroom Compost

    PubMed Central

    Cloonan, Kevin R.; Andreadis, Stefanos S.; Chen, Haibin; Jenkins, Nina E.; Baker, Thomas C.

    2016-01-01

    We previously showed that the females of the mushroom sciarid, Lycoriella ingenua (Dufour, 1839) (Diptera: Sciaridae), one of the most severe pests of the cultivated white button mushroom, Agaricus bisporus (J.E. Lange) Emil J. Imbach (Agaricales: Agaricaceae), are attracted to the mushroom compost that mushrooms are grown on and not to the mushrooms themselves. We also showed that females are attracted to the parasitic green mold, Trichoderma aggressivum. In an attempt to identify what is in the mushroom compost that attracts female L. ingenua, we isolated several species of fungi from adult males and females, third instar larvae, and mushroom compost itself. We then analyzed the attraction of females to these substrates using a static-flow two choice olfactometer, as well as their oviposition tendencies in another type of assay under choice and no-choice conditions. We also assessed the survival of larvae to adulthood when first instar larvae were placed on each of the isolated fungal species. We found that female flies were attracted most to the mycoparasitic green mold, T. aggressivum, to Penicilium citrinum isolated from adult female bodies, and to Scatylidium thermophilium isolated from the mushroom compost. Gravid female flies laid the most eggs on T. aggressivum, Aspergillus flavus isolated from third instar larval frass, Aspergillus fumigatus isolated from adult male bodies, and on P. citrinum. This egg-laying trend remained consistent under no-choice conditions as females aged. First instar larvae developed to adulthood only on S. thermophilium and Chaetomium sp. isolated from mushroom compost, and on P. citrinum. Our results indicate that the volatiles from a suite of different fungal species act in tandem in the natural setting of mushroom compost, with some first attracting gravid female flies and then others causing them to oviposit. The ecological context of these findings is important for creating an optimal strategy for using possible

  16. A prognostic model for survival after salvage treatment with FLAG-Ida +/- gemtuzumab-ozogamicine in adult patients with refractory/relapsed acute myeloid leukaemia.

    PubMed

    Bergua, Juan M; Montesinos, Pau; Martinez-Cuadrón, David; Fernández-Abellán, Pascual; Serrano, Josefina; Sayas, María J; Prieto-Fernandez, Julio; García, Raimundo; García-Huerta, Ana J; Barrios, Manuel; Benavente, Celina; Pérez-Encinas, Manuel; Simiele, Adriana; Rodríguez-Macias, Gabriela; Herrera-Puente, Pilar; Rodríguez-Veiga, Rebeca; Martínez-Sánchez, María P; Amador-Barciela, María L; Riaza-Grau, Rosalía; Sanz, Miguel A

    2016-09-01

    The combination of fludarabine, cytarabine, idarubicin, and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (FLAG-Ida) is widely used in relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). We retrospectively analysed the results of 259 adult AML patients treated as first salvage with FLAG-Ida or FLAG-Ida plus Gentuzumab-Ozogamicin (FLAGO-Ida) of the Programa Español de Tratamientos en Hematología (PETHEMA) database, developing a prognostic score system of survival in this setting (SALFLAGE score). Overall, 221 patients received FLAG-Ida and 38 FLAGO-Ida; 92 were older than 60 years. The complete remission (CR)/CR with incomplete blood count recovery (CRi) rate was 51%, with 9% of induction deaths. Three covariates were associated with lower CR/CRi: high-risk cytogenetics and t(8;21) at diagnosis, no previous allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT) and relapse-free interval <1 year. Allo-SCT was performed in second CR in 60 patients (23%). The median overall survival (OS) of the entire cohort was 0·7 years, with 22% OS at 5-years. Four independent variables were used to construct the score: cytogenetics, FLT3-internal tandem duplication, length of relapse-free interval and previous allo-SCT. Using this stratification system, three groups were defined: favourable (26% of patients), intermediate (29%) and poor-risk (45%), with an expected 5-year OS of 52%, 26% and 7%, respectively. The SALFLAGE score discriminated a subset of patients with an acceptable long-term outcome using FLAG-Ida/FLAGO-Ida regimen. The results of this retrospective analysis should be validated in independent external cohorts.

  17. 17β-Estradiol, but not estrone, increases the survival and activation of new neurons in the hippocampus in response to spatial memory in adult female rats.

    PubMed

    McClure, Robyn E S; Barha, Cindy K; Galea, Liisa A M

    2013-01-01

    Estrogens fluctuate across the lifespan in women, with circulating 17β-estradiol levels higher pre-menopause than estrone and circulating estrone levels higher postmenopause than 17β-estradiol. Estrone is a common component of hormone replacement therapies, but research shows that 17β-estradiol may have a greater positive impact on cognition. Previous studies show that acute estrone and 17β-estradiol impact hippocampus-dependent learning and cell proliferation in the dentate gyrus in a dose-dependent manner in adult female rats. The current study explores how chronic treatment with estrone and 17β-estradiol differentially influences spatial learning, hippocampal neurogenesis and activation of new neurons in response to spatial memory. Adult female rats received daily injections of vehicle (sesame oil), or a 10 μg dose of either 17β-estradiol or estrone for 20 days. One day following the first hormone injection all rats were injected with the DNA synthesis marker, bromodeoxyuridine. On days 11-15 after BrdU injection rats were trained on a spatial reference version of the Morris water maze, and five days later (day 20 of estrogens treatment) were given a probe trial to assess memory retention. Cell proliferation was assessed by the endogenous cell cycle marker, Ki67, cell survival was assessed by counting the number and density of BrdU-ir cells in the dentate gyrus and cell activation was assessed by the percentage of BrdU-ir cells that were co-labelled with the immediate early gene product zif268. There were no significant differences between groups in acquisition or retention of Morris water maze. However, the 17β-estradiol group had significantly higher, while the estrone group had significantly lower, levels of cell survival (BrdU-ir cells) in the dentate gyrus compared to controls. Furthermore, rats injected with 17β-estradiol showed significantly higher levels of activation of new neurons in response to spatial memory compared to controls. These

  18. Pop-up satellite archival tag effects on the diving behaviour, growth and survival of adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar at sea.

    PubMed

    Hedger, R D; Rikardsen, A H; Thorstad, E B

    2017-01-01

    The effects of large, externally attached pop-up satellite archival tags (PSATs) were compared with those of small implanted data storage tags (DSTs) on adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar during their ocean migration in regards to depth utilization, diving depth, diving rate, diving speed and temperatures experienced. Additionally the return rate and growth of individuals tagged with PSATs was compared with those of small acoustic tags and DSTs. Overall, the depth distribution of individuals tagged with PSATs was similar to that of those tagged with DSTs, reflecting the pelagic nature of S. salar at sea. Individuals tagged with PSATs, however, dived less frequently and to shallower depths, and dived and surfaced at slower velocities. Sea surface temperatures experienced by individuals tagged with PSATs were similar to those experienced by those tagged with DSTs for the same time of year, suggesting that there were no large differences in the ocean migration. Return rates did not depend on whether individuals were tagged with PSATs or not, indicating that survival at sea was not impacted by PSATs in comparison to small internal tags. Individuals tagged with PSATs, however, had a smaller increase in body mass than those tagged with acoustic tags or DSTs. It was concluded that PSATs are suitable for use in researching large-scale migratory behaviour of adult S. salar at sea, but that some effects on their behaviour from tagging must be expected. Effects of PSATs may be largest in the short term when S. salar are swimming in bursts at high speeds. Even though individuals tagged with PSATs performed deep and frequent dives, the results of this study suggest that untagged individuals would perform even deeper and more frequent dives than tagged individuals.

  19. Probability 1/e

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  20. Social and ecological factors influencing offspring survival in wild macaques

    PubMed Central

    Kerhoas, Daphne; Perwitasari-Farajallah, Dyah; Agil, Muhammad; Widdig, Anja

    2014-01-01

    Premature loss of offspring decreases direct fitness of parents. In gregarious mammals, both ecological and social variables impact offspring survival and may interact with each other in this regard. Although a number of studies have investigated factors influencing offspring loss in mammals, we still know very little on how different factors interact with one another. We therefore investigated fetal and infant mortality in 3 large groups of wild crested macaques (Macaca nigra) over a period of up to 5 years by including potential social causes such as maternal dominance rank, male immigration, between group encounters, and ecological conditions such as rainfall in a multivariate survival analysis using Cox proportional hazards model. Infant but not fetal survival was most impaired after a recent takeover of the alpha-male position by an immigrant male. Furthermore, infant survival probability increased when there was an increase in number of group adult females and rainfall. Fetal survival probability also increased with an increase of these 2 factors, but more in high-ranking than low-ranking females. Fetal survival, unlike that of infants, was also improved by an increase of intergroup encounter rates. Our study thus stresses the importance of survival analyses using a multivariate approach and encompassing more than a single offspring stage to investigate the determinants of female direct fitness. We further provide evidence for fitness costs and benefits of group living, possibly deriving from high pressures of both within- and between-group competition, in a wild primate population. PMID:25214754

  1. Larval food quantity affects development time, survival and adult biological traits that influence the vectorial capacity of Anopheles darlingi under laboratory conditions

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The incidence of malaria in the Amazon is seasonal and mosquito vectorial capacity parameters, including abundance and longevity, depend on quantitative and qualitative aspects of the larval diet. Anopheles darlingi is a major malaria vector in the Amazon, representing >95% of total Anopheles population present in the Porto Velho region. Despite its importance in the transmission of the Plasmodium parasite, knowledge of the larval biology and ecology is limited. Studies regarding aspects of adult population ecology are more common than studies on larval ecology. However, in order develop effective control strategies and laboratory breeding conditions for this species, more data on the factors affecting vector biology is needed. The aim of the present study is to assess the effects of larval food quantity on the vectorial capacity of An. darling under laboratory conditions. Methods Anopheles darlingi was maintained at 28°C, 80% humidity and exposed to a daily photoperiod of 12 h. Larvae were divided into three experimental groups that were fed either a low, medium, or high food supply (based on the food amounts consumed by other species of culicids). Each experiment was replicated for six times. A cohort of adults were also exposed to each type of diet and assessed for several biological characteristics (e.g. longevity, bite frequency and survivorship), which were used to estimate the vectorial capacity of each experimental group. Results The group supplied with higher food amounts observed a reduction in development time while larval survival increased. In addition to enhanced longevity, increasing larval food quantity was positively correlated with increasing frequency of bites, longer blood meal duration and wing length, resulting in greater vectorial capacity. However, females had greater longevity than males despite having smaller wings. Conclusions Overall, several larval and adult biological traits were significantly affected by larval food

  2. Delayed plumage maturation increases overwinter survival in North Island robins.

    PubMed Central

    Berggren, Asa; Armstrong, Doug P.; Lewis, Rebecca M.

    2004-01-01

    Many bird species show delayed plumage maturation (DPM), retaining sub-adult plumage until after their first breeding season. Most explanations assume that DPM increases fitness over the breeding season. However, unless birds undergo a full moult before breeding, DPM could also be an adaptation to increase survival over the previous winter. The winter adaptation hypothesis has never been tested owing to the difficulty of measuring overwinter survival. We experimentally tested this hypothesis in North Island robins (Petroica longipes) using a closed island population where we could accurately estimate survival. The experiment involved dyeing 41 juveniles to mimic adult males, and comparing their survival with 41 control juveniles treated with the same peroxide base minus the pigment. The population was monitored with a series of resighting surveys, and mark-recapture analysis used to estimate overwinter survival. Survival probability was estimated to be 10% for dyed birds versus 61% for control birds in 2001, and 29% for dyed birds versus 40% for control birds in the winter of 2002, supporting the winter adaptation hypothesis for DPM. Access to suitable habitat is the key factor limiting juvenile survival in this population, and the locations where dyed juveniles were sighted suggest that they were often excluded from suitable areas. PMID:15475331

  3. Survival of mountain quail translocated from two distinct source populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Troy, Ronald J.; Coates, Peter S.; Connelly, John W.; Gillette, Gifford; Delehanty, David J.

    2013-01-01

    Translocation of mountain quail (Oreortyx pictus) to restore viable populations to their former range has become a common practice. Because differences in post-release vital rates between animals from multiple source populations has not been well studied, wildlife and land managers may arbitrarily choose the source population or base the source population on immediate availability when planning translocation projects. Similarly, an understanding of the optimal proportion of individuals from different age and sex classes for translocation would benefit translocation planning. During 2006 and 2007, we captured and translocated 125 mountain quail from 2 ecologically distinct areas: 38 from southern California and 87 from southwestern Oregon. We released mountain quail in the Bennett Hills of south-central Idaho. We radio-marked and monitored a subsample of 58 quail and used them for a 2-part survival analysis. Cumulative survival probability was 0.23 ± 0.05 (SE) at 150 days post-release. We first examined an a priori hypothesis (model) that survival varied between the 2 distinct source populations. We found that source population did not explain variation in survival. This result suggests that wildlife managers have flexibility in selecting source populations for mountain quail translocation efforts. In a post hoc examination, we pooled the quail across source populations and evaluated differences in survival probabilities between sex and age classes. The most parsimonious model indicated that adult male survival was substantially less than survival rates of other mountain quail age and sex classes (i.e., interaction between sex and age). This result suggests that translocation success could benefit by translocating yearling males rather than adult males, perhaps because adult male breeding behavior results in vulnerability to predators

  4. Factors affecting breeding season survival of Red-Headed Woodpeckers in South Carolina.

    SciTech Connect

    Kilgo, John, C.; Vukovich, Mark

    2011-11-18

    Red-headed woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus) populations have declined in the United States and Canada over the past 40 years. However, few demographic studies have been published on the species and none have addressed adult survival. During 2006-2007, we estimated survival probabilities of 80 radio-tagged red-headed woodpeckers during the breeding season in mature loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) forests in South Carolina. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to estimate survival within and between years and to evaluate the effects of foliar cover (number of available cover patches), snag density treatment (high density vs. low density), and sex and age of woodpeckers. Weekly survival probabilities followed a quadratic time trend, being lowest during mid-summer, which coincided with the late nestling and fledgling period. Avian predation, particularly by Cooper's (Accipiter cooperii) and sharp-shinned hawks (A. striatus), accounted for 85% of all mortalities. Our best-supported model estimated an 18-week breeding season survival probability of 0.72 (95% CI = 0.54-0.85) and indicated that the number of cover patches interacted with sex of woodpeckers to affect survival; females with few available cover patches had a lower probability of survival than either males or females with more cover patches. At the median number of cover patches available (n = 6), breeding season survival of females was 0.82 (95% CI = 0.54-0.94) and of males was 0.60 (95% CI = 0.42-0.76). The number of cover patches available to woodpeckers appeared in all 3 of our top models predicting weekly survival, providing further evidence that woodpecker survival was positively associated with availability of cover. Woodpecker survival was not associated with snag density. Our results suggest that protection of {ge}0.7 cover patches per ha during vegetation control activities in mature pine forests will benefit survival of this Partners In Flight Watch List species.

  5. The effects of body size and climate on post-weaning survival of elephant seals at Heard Island

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McMahon, Clive R; New, Leslie; Fairley, E.J.; Hindell, M.A.; Burton, H.R.

    2015-01-01

    The population size of southern elephant seals in the southern Indian and Pacific Oceans decreased precipitously between the 1950s and 1990s. To investigate the reasons behind this, we studied the population of southern elephant seals at Heard Island between 1949 and 1954, using data collected by the early Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions. Seals were marked and measured (lengths) as weaned pups, and resighted at Heard and Marion islands and in the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica in subsequent years. Bayesian state-space mark-recapture models were used to determine post-weaning survival. Yearling survival was consistently lower (ϕy: 0.28–0.40) than sub-adult survival (ϕs: 0.79–0.83). We found evidence for constant sub-adult survival and time-dependent resight probabilities. Weaning length was an important determinate of yearling survival, with the probability of survival increasing with individual length. There was some suggestion that the Southern Annular Mode influenced yearling survival but this evidence was not strong. Nonetheless, our results provide further support showing that size at independence affects yearling survival. Given the known sensitivity of southern elephant seal populations to survival early in life, it is possible that the decline in population size at Heard Island between the 1950s and 1990s like that at Macquarie Island was due to low yearling survival mediated through maternal ability to produce large pups and the dominant environmental conditions mothers experience during pregnancy.

  6. Assessing survival in a multi-population system: a case study on bat populations.

    PubMed

    Papadatou, Eleni; Ibáñez, Carlos; Pradel, Roger; Juste, Javier; Gimenez, Olivier

    2011-04-01

    In long-lived animals, adult survival is among the most important determinants of population dynamics. Although it may show considerable variation both in time and among populations and sites, a single survival estimate per species is often used in comparative evolutionary studies or in conservation management to identify threatened populations. We estimated adult survival of the isabelline serotine bat Eptesicus isabellinus using capture-recapture data collected on six maternity colonies scattered over a large area (distance 8-103 km) during periods varying from 8 to 26 years. We modelled temporal and inter-colony variations as random effects in a Bayesian framework and estimated mean annual adult survival of females on two scales and a single survival value across all colonies. On a coarse scale, we grouped colonies according to two different habitat types and investigated the effect on survival. A difference in adult survival was detected between the two habitat types [posterior mean of annual survival probability 0.71; 95% credible interval (CI) 0.51-0.86 vs. 0.60; 0.28-0.89], but it was not statistically supported. On a fine scale, survival of the six colonies ranged between 0.58 (95% CI 0.23-0.92) and 0.81 (0.73-0.88), with variation between only two colonies being statistically supported. Overall survival was 0.72 (95% CI 0.57-0.93) with important inter-colony variability (on a logit scale 0.98; 95% CI 0.00-8.16). Survival varied temporally in a random fashion across colonies. Our results show that inference based solely on single colonies should be treated with caution and that a representative unbiased estimate of survival for any species should ideally be based on multiple populations.

  7. Linking habitat selection and predation risk to spatial variation in survival.

    PubMed

    DeCesare, Nicholas J; Hebblewhite, Mark; Bradley, Mark; Hervieux, David; Neufeld, Lalenia; Musiani, Marco

    2014-03-01

    A central assumption underlying the study of habitat selection is that selected habitats confer enhanced fitness. Unfortunately, this assumption is rarely tested, and in some systems, gradients of predation risk may more accurately characterize spatial variation in vital rates than gradients described by habitat selection studies. Here, we separately measured spatial patterns of both resource selection and predation risk and tested their relationships with a key demographic trait, adult female survival, for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou Gmelin). We also evaluated whether exposure to gradients in both predation risk and resource selection value was manifested temporally through instantaneous or seasonal effects on survival outcomes. We used Cox proportional hazards spatial survival modelling to assess the relative support for 5 selection- and risk-based definitions of habitat quality, as quantified by woodland caribou adult female survival. These hypotheses included scenarios in which selection ideally mirrored survival, risk entirely drove survival, non-ideal selection correlated with survival but with additive risk effects, an ecological trap with maladaptive selection and a non-spatial effect of annual variation in weather. Indeed, we found positive relationships between the predicted values of a resource selection function (RSF) and survival, yet subsequently incorporating an additional negative effect of predation risk greatly improved models further. This revealed a positive, but non-ideal relationship between selection and survival. Gradients in these covariates were also shown to affect individual survival probability at multiple temporal scales. Exposure to increased predation risk had a relatively instantaneous effect on survival outcomes, whereas variation in habitat suitability predicted by an RSF had both instantaneous and longer-term seasonal effects on survival. Predation risk was an additive source of hazard

  8. Probability and Relative Frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drieschner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The concept of probability seems to have been inexplicable since its invention in the seventeenth century. In its use in science, probability is closely related with relative frequency. So the task seems to be interpreting that relation. In this paper, we start with predicted relative frequency and show that its structure is the same as that of probability. I propose to call that the `prediction interpretation' of probability. The consequences of that definition are discussed. The "ladder"-structure of the probability calculus is analyzed. The expectation of the relative frequency is shown to be equal to the predicted relative frequency. Probability is shown to be the most general empirically testable prediction.

  9. Clinical signs, pathology and dose-dependent survival of adult wood frogs, Rana sylvatica, inoculated orally with frog virus 3 Ranavirus sp., Iridoviridae.

    PubMed

    Forzn, Mara J; Jones, Kathleen M; Vanderstichel, Raphal V; Wood, John; Kibenge, Frederick S B; Kuiken, Thijs; Wirth, Wytamma; Ariel, Ellen; Daoust, Pierre-Yves

    2015-05-01

    Amphibian populations suffer massive mortalities from infection with frog virus 3 FV3, genus Ranavirus, family Iridoviridae, a pathogen also involved in mortalities of fish and reptiles. Experimental oral infection with FV3 in captive-raised adult wood frogs, Rana sylvatica Lithobates sylvaticus, was performed as the first step in establishing a native North American animal model of ranaviral disease to study pathogenesis and host response. Oral dosing was successful LD50 was 10(2.93 2.423.44) p.f.u. for frogs averaging 35mm in length. Onset of clinical signs occurred 614days post-infection p.i. median 11 days p.i. and time to death was 1014 days p.i. median 12 days p.i.. Each tenfold increase in virus dose increased the odds of dying by 23-fold and accelerated onset of clinical signs and death by approximately 15. Ranavirus DNA was demonstrated in skin and liver of all frogs that died or were euthanized because of severe clinical signs. Shedding of virus occurred in faeces 710 days p.i. 34.5days before death and skin sheds 10 days p.i. 01.5days before death of some frogs dead from infection. Most common lesions were dermal erosion and haemorrhages haematopoietic necrosis in bone marrow, kidney, spleen and liver and necrosis in renal glomeruli, tongue, gastrointestinal tract and urinary bladder mucosa. Presence of ranavirus in lesions was confirmed by immunohistochemistry. Intracytoplasmic inclusion bodies probably viral were present in the bone marrow and the epithelia of the oral cavity, gastrointestinal tract, renal tubules and urinary bladder. Our work describes a ranaviruswood frog model and provides estimates that can be incorporated into ranavirus disease ecology models.

  10. Survival of dusky Canada goose goslings in relation to weather and annual nest success

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fondell, T.F.; Miller, David A.; Grand, J.B.; Michael, Anthony R.

    2008-01-01

    The dusky Canada goose (Branta canadensis occidentalis) population has been in long-term decline, likely due to reduced breeding productivity, but gosling survival of this population had not been examined. We studied gosling survival in broods of radiomarked adult females on the western Copper River Delta, Alaska, USA, during 1997-1999 and 2001-2003. Survival estimates for dusky Canada goose goslings to 45 days (x- = 0.32) were below estimates from most previous studies of geese. Daily survival of goslings increased with age and decreased with date of hatch. Precipitation during the first 3 days post-hatch was negatively related to gosling survival and this effect increased with date. Annual estimates of gosling survival were positively correlated with annual estimates of nest success, suggesting overlap in factors affecting nest and gosling survival. Nest success probably also directly affected gosling survival, because survival decreased with hatch date and more broods hatched from renests during years with low nest success. Gosling survival appears to play an important role in limiting current productivity of this population. Management directed at increasing nest success would likely also improve gosling survival. We recommend additional research directed at examining sources of gosling mortality and the link between nest success and gosling survival.

  11. What Are Probability Surveys?

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

  12. Natal location influences movement and survival of a spatially structured population of snail kites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Hines, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    Despite the accepted importance of the need to better understand how natal location affects movement decisions and survival of animals, robust estimates of movement and survival in relation to the natal location are lacking. Our study focuses on movement and survival related to the natal location of snail kites in Florida and shows that kites, in addition to exhibiting a high level of site tenacity to breeding regions, also exhibit particular attraction to their natal region. More specifically, we found that estimates of movement from post-dispersal regions were greater toward natal regions than toward non-natal regions (differences were significant for three of four regions). We also found that estimates of natal philopatry were greater than estimates of philopatry to non-natal regions (differences were statistically significant for two of four regions). A previous study indicated an effect of natal region on juvenile survival; in this study, we show an effect of natal region on adult survival. Estimates of adult survival varied among kites that were hatched in different regions. Adults experienced mortality rates characteristic of the region occupied at the time when survival was measured, but because there is a greater probability that kites will return to their natal region than to any other regions, their survival was ultimately influenced by their natal region. In most years, kites hatched in southern regions had greater survival probabilities than did kites hatched in northern regions. However, during a multiregional drought, one of the northern regions served as a refuge from drought, and during this perturbation, survival was greater for birds hatched in the north. Our study shows that natal location may be important in influencing the ecological dynamics of kites but also highlights the importance of considering temporal variation in habitat conditions of spatially structured systems when attempting to evaluate the conservation value of habitats.

  13. Dependent Probability Spaces

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris

    2008-01-01

    The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…

  14. Dynamical Simulation of Probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices(such as random number generators). Self-orgainizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed. Special attention was focused upon coupled stochastic processes, defined in terms of conditional probabilities, for which joint probability does not exist. Simulations of quantum probabilities are also discussed.

  15. Annual recapture and survival rates of two non-breeding adult populations of Roseate Terns Stema dougallii captured on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and estimates of their population sizes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Neill, P.; Minton, C.D.T.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hines, J.E.

    2008-01-01

    Capture-recapture data from two disparate breeding populations of Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) captured together as non-breeding individuals from 2002 to 2007 in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Australia were analyzed for both survival rate and recapture rate. The average annual survival rate for the birds from the Asian population (S. d. bangsi) (0.901) is higher than that of the other population of unknown breeding origin (0.819). There was large variability in survival in both populations among years, but the average survival rate of 0.85 is similar to estimates for the same species in North America. The Cormack-Jolly-Seber models used in program MARK to estimate survival rates also produced estimated of recapture probabilities and population sizes. These estimates of population size were 29,000 for S. D. bangsi and 8,300 for the study area and much larger than the documented numbers in the likely breeding areas, suggesting that many breeding sites are currently unknown.

  16. Native American Prison Survival Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    French, Laurence

    1980-01-01

    Describes the adaptation of the "survival schools" concept and adult education techniques to the incarcerated Indian, teaching both the acceptance of "Indianism" and the skills and attitudes for coping with the dominant culture. (SK)

  17. Lead decreases cell survival, proliferation, and neuronal differentiation of primary cultured adult neural precursor cells through activation of the JNK and p38 MAP kinases

    PubMed Central

    Engstrom, Anna; Wang, Hao; Xia, Zhengui

    2015-01-01

    Adult hippocampal neurogenesis is the process whereby adult neural precursor cells (aNPCs) in the subgranular zone (SGZ) of the dentate gyrus (DG) generate adult-born, functional neurons in the hippocampus. This process is modulated by various extracellular and intracellular stimuli, and the adult-born neurons have been implicated in hippocampus-dependent learning and memory. However, studies on how neurotoxic agents affect this process and the underlying mechanisms are limited. The goal of this study was to determine whether lead, a heavy metal, directly impairs critical processes in adult neurogenesis and to characterize the underlying signaling pathways using primary cultured SGZ-aNPCs isolated from adult mice. We report here that lead significantly increases apoptosis and inhibits proliferation in SGZ-aNPCs. In addition, lead significantly impairs spontaneous neuronal differentiation and maturation. Furthermore, we found that activation of the c-Jun NH2-terminal kinase (JNK) and p38 mitogen activated protein (MAP) kinase signaling pathways are important for lead cytotoxicity. Our data suggest that lead can directly act on adult neural stem cells and impair critical processes in adult hippocampal neurogenesis, which may contribute to its neurotoxicity and adverse effects on cognition in adults. PMID:25967738

  18. Statistical description for survival data

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Statistical description is always the first step in data analysis. It gives investigator a general impression of the data at hand. Traditionally, data are described as central tendency and deviation. However, this framework does not fit to the survival data (also termed time-to-event data). Such data type contains two components. One is the survival time and the other is the status. Researchers are usually interested in the probability of event at a given survival time point. Hazard function, cumulative hazard function and survival function are commonly used to describe survival data. Survival function can be estimated using Kaplan-Meier estimator, which is also the default method in most statistical packages. Alternatively, Nelson-Aalen estimator is available to estimate survival function. Survival functions of subgroups can be compared using log-rank test. Furthermore, the article also introduces how to describe time-to-event data with parametric modeling. PMID:27867953

  19. Probability and radical behaviorism

    PubMed Central

    Espinosa, James M.

    1992-01-01

    The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforcement and extinction, respectively. PMID:22478114

  20. Statistics and Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laktineh, Imad

    2010-04-01

    This ourse constitutes a brief introduction to probability applications in high energy physis. First the mathematical tools related to the diferent probability conepts are introduced. The probability distributions which are commonly used in high energy physics and their characteristics are then shown and commented. The central limit theorem and its consequences are analysed. Finally some numerical methods used to produce diferent kinds of probability distribution are presented. The full article (17 p.) corresponding to this lecture is written in french and is provided in the proceedings of the book SOS 2008.

  1. Probability of satellite collision

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  2. PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, REPORTS), (*PROBABILITY, REPORTS), INFORMATION THEORY, DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, DISTRIBUTION THEORY , DECISION THEORY, MEASURE THEORY, OPTIMIZATION

  3. Testing for handling bias in survival estimation for black brant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sedinger, J.S.; Lindberg, M.S.; Rexstad, E.A.; Chelgren, N.D.; Ward, D.H.

    1997-01-01

    We used an ultrastructure approach in program SURVIV to test for, and remove, bias in survival estimates for the year following mass banding of female black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). We used relative banding-drive size as the independent variable to control for handling effects in our ultrastructure models, which took the form: S = S0(1 - ??D), where ?? was handling effect and D was the ratio of banding-drive size to the largest banding drive. Brant were divided into 3 classes: goslings, initial captures, and recaptures, based on their state at the time of banding, because we anticipated the potential for heterogeneity in model parameters among classes of brant. Among models examined, for which ?? was not constrained, a model with ?? constant across classes of brant and years, constant survival rates among years for initially captured brant but year-specific survival rates for goslings and recaptures, and year- and class-specific detection probabilities had the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Handling effect, ??, was -0.47 ?? 0.13 SE, -0.14 ?? 0.057, and -0.12 ?? 0.049 for goslings, initially released adults, and recaptured adults. Gosling annual survival in the first year ranged from 0.738 ?? 0.072 for the 1986 cohort to 0.260 ?? 0.025 for the 1991 cohort. Inclusion of winter observations increased estimates of first-year survival rates by an average of 30%, suggesting that permanent emigration had an important influence on apparent survival, especially for later cohorts. We estimated annual survival for initially captured brant as 0.782 ?? 0.013, while that for recaptures varied from 0.726 ?? 0.034 to 0.900 ?? 0.062. Our analyses failed to detect a negative effect of handling on survival of brant, which is consistent with an hypothesis of substantial inherent heterogeneity in post-fledging survival rates, such that individuals most likely to die as a result of handling also have lower inherent survival probabilities.

  4. Probability and Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, Bernis, Ed.; And Others

    This teacher's guide to probability and statistics contains three major sections. The first section on elementary combinatorial principles includes activities, student problems, and suggested teaching procedures for the multiplication principle, permutations, and combinations. Section two develops an intuitive approach to probability through…

  5. Teachers' Understandings of Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Yan; Thompson, Patrick

    2007-01-01

    Probability is an important idea with a remarkably wide range of applications. However, psychological and instructional studies conducted in the last two decades have consistently documented poor understanding of probability among different populations across different settings. The purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical framework for…

  6. Estimating Survival and Recruitment in a Freshwater Mussel Population Using Mark-recapture Techniques

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Villella, R.F.; Smith, D.R.; Lemarie, D.P.

    2004-01-01

    We used a mark-recapture method and model averaging to estimate apparent survival, recruitment and rate of population growth in a native freshwater mussel population at a site on the Cacapon River, which is a tributary to the Potomac River. Over 2200 Elliptio complanata, E. fisheriana and Lampsilis cariosa were uniquely tagged over a period of 4 y. Recapture probabilities were higher in spring and summer than in winter except for L. cariosa which had a low probability of recapture regardless of time of year. All three species had high annual adult survival rates (>90%) with lower estimated survival of small (???55 mm) mussels (43%-69%). The variation in apparent survival over time was similar for all three species. This suggests that whatever environmental variables affect survival of mussels in this site affected all three species the same. Recruitment rates were low (1-4%) for both E. complanata and L. cariosa, with E. fisheriana having several periods of high (15-23%) recruitment. Distribution within the site was affected by both downstream and upstream movement, though movement rates were generally <1%. Average population growth rates for E. complanata (?? = 0.996, SE = 0.053), L. cariosa (?? = 0.993, SE = 0.076) and E. fisheriana (?? = 1.084, SE = 0.276) indicated static populations. Population growth rate approximating 1.0 suggests this site supports a stable freshwater mussel population through a life history strategy of low but constant recruitment and high annual adult survival.

  7. Systemic Insecticides Reduce Feeding, Survival and Fecundity of Adult Black Vine Weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) on a Variety of Ornamental Nursery Crops

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A series of bioassays were conducted to test the systemic activity of clothianidin, chlorantraniliprole, dinotefuran, and thiamethoxam against adult black vine weevils (Otiorhynchus sulcatus F.) on Taxus, Heuchera, Astilbe, Sedum, Euonymus, and Rhododendron grown in containers. The insecticides wer...

  8. Guide star probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soneira, R. M.; Bahcall, J. N.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilities are calculated for acquiring suitable guide stars (GS) with the fine guidance system (FGS) of the space telescope. A number of the considerations and techniques described are also relevant for other space astronomy missions. The constraints of the FGS are reviewed. The available data on bright star densities are summarized and a previous error in the literature is corrected. Separate analytic and Monte Carlo calculations of the probabilities are described. A simulation of space telescope pointing is carried out using the Weistrop north galactic pole catalog of bright stars. Sufficient information is presented so that the probabilities of acquisition can be estimated as a function of position in the sky. The probability of acquiring suitable guide stars is greatly increased if the FGS can allow an appreciable difference between the (bright) primary GS limiting magnitude and the (fainter) secondary GS limiting magnitude.

  9. Quantum computing and probability.

    PubMed

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  10. Rationalizing Hybrid Earthquake Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomberg, J.; Reasenberg, P.; Beeler, N.; Cocco, M.; Belardinelli, M.

    2003-12-01

    An approach to including stress transfer and frictional effects in estimates of the probability of failure of a single fault affected by a nearby earthquake has been suggested in Stein et al. (1997). This `hybrid' approach combines conditional probabilities, which depend on the time elapsed since the last earthquake on the affected fault, with Poissonian probabilities that account for friction and depend only on the time since the perturbing earthquake. The latter are based on the seismicity rate change model developed by Dieterich (1994) to explain the temporal behavior of aftershock sequences in terms of rate-state frictional processes. The model assumes an infinite population of nucleation sites that are near failure at the time of the perturbing earthquake. In the hybrid approach, assuming the Dieterich model can lead to significant transient increases in failure probability. We explore some of the implications of applying the Dieterich model to a single fault and its impact on the hybrid probabilities. We present two interpretations that we believe can rationalize the use of the hybrid approach. In the first, a statistical distribution representing uncertainties in elapsed and/or mean recurrence time on the fault serves as a proxy for Dieterich's population of nucleation sites. In the second, we imagine a population of nucleation patches distributed over the fault with a distribution of maturities. In both cases we find that the probability depends on the time since the last earthquake. In particular, the size of the transient probability increase may only be significant for faults already close to failure. Neglecting the maturity of a fault may lead to overestimated rate and probability increases.

  11. Asteroidal collision probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bottke, W. F.; Greenberg, R.

    1993-05-01

    Several past calculations of collision probabilities between pairs of bodies on independent orbits have yielded inconsistent results. We review the methodologies and identify their various problems. Greenberg's (1982) collision probability formalism (now with a corrected symmetry assumption) is equivalent to Wetherill's (1967) approach, except that it includes a way to avoid singularities near apsides. That method shows that the procedure by Namiki and Binzel (1991) was accurate for those cases where singularities did not arise.

  12. Probabilities in implicit learning.

    PubMed

    Tseng, Philip; Hsu, Tzu-Yu; Tzeng, Ovid J L; Hung, Daisy L; Juan, Chi-Hung

    2011-01-01

    The visual system possesses a remarkable ability in learning regularities from the environment. In the case of contextual cuing, predictive visual contexts such as spatial configurations are implicitly learned, retained, and used to facilitate visual search-all without one's subjective awareness and conscious effort. Here we investigated whether implicit learning and its facilitatory effects are sensitive to the statistical property of such implicit knowledge. In other words, are highly probable events learned better than less probable ones even when such learning is implicit? We systematically varied the frequencies of context repetition to alter the degrees of learning. Our results showed that search efficiency increased consistently as contextual probabilities increased. Thus, the visual contexts, along with their probability of occurrences, were both picked up by the visual system. Furthermore, even when the total number of exposures was held constant between each probability, the highest probability still enjoyed a greater cuing effect, suggesting that the temporal aspect of implicit learning is also an important factor to consider in addition to the effect of mere frequency. Together, these findings suggest that implicit learning, although bypassing observers' conscious encoding and retrieval effort, behaves much like explicit learning in the sense that its facilitatory effect also varies as a function of its associative strengths.

  13. Launch Collision Probability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bollenbacher, Gary; Guptill, James D.

    1999-01-01

    This report analyzes the probability of a launch vehicle colliding with one of the nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the Earth, given that an object on a near-collision course with the launch vehicle has been identified. Knowledge of the probability of collision throughout the launch window can be used to avoid launching at times when the probability of collision is unacceptably high. The analysis in this report assumes that the positions of the orbiting objects and the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time and therefore that any tracked object which comes close to the launch vehicle can be identified. The analysis further assumes that the position uncertainty of the launch vehicle and the approaching space object can be described with position covariance matrices. With these and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution is developed using two approaches. The solution shows that the probability of collision is a function of position uncertainties, the size of the two potentially colliding objects, and the nominal separation distance at the point of closest approach. ne impact of the simplifying assumptions on the accuracy of the final result is assessed and the application of the results to the Cassini mission, launched in October 1997, is described. Other factors that affect the probability of collision are also discussed. Finally, the report offers alternative approaches that can be used to evaluate the probability of collision.

  14. Demographics and 2008 Run Timing of Adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and Shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) Suckers in Upper Klamath Lake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Hewitt, David A.; Barry, Patrick M.; Scott, Alta; Koller, Justin; Johnson, Mark; Blackwood, Greta

    2009-01-01

    We used capture-recapture data to assess population dynamics of endangered Lost River suckers (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose suckers (Chasmistes brevirostris) in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. The Cormack-Jolly-Seber method was used to estimate apparent survival probabilities, and a temporal symmetry model was used to estimate annual seniority probabilities. Information theoretic modeling was used to assess variation in parameter estimates due to time, gender, and species. In addition, length data were used to detect multiple year-class failures and events of high recruitment into adult spawning populations. Survival of adult Lost River and shortnose suckers varied substantially across years. Relatively high annual mortality was observed for the lakeshore-spawning Lost River sucker subpopulation in 2002 and for the river spawning subpopulation in 2001. Shortnose suckers experienced high mortality in 2001 and 2004. This indicates that high mortality events are not only species specific, but also are specific to subpopulations for Lost River suckers. Seniority probability estimates and length composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into adult sucker populations has been sparse. The overall fitness of Upper Klamath Lake sucker populations are of concern given the low observed survival in some years and the paucity of recent recruitment. During most years, estimates of survival probabilities were lower than seniority probabilities, indicating net losses in adult sucker population abundances. The evidence for decline was more marked for shortnose suckers than for Lost River suckers. Our data indicated that sucker survival for both species, but especially shortnose suckers, was sometimes low in years without any observed fish kills. This indicates that high mortality can occur over a protracted period, resulting in poor annual survival, but will not necessarily be observed in association with a fish kill. A better understanding of the factors

  15. Probability in biology: overview of a comprehensive theory of probability in living systems.

    PubMed

    Nakajima, Toshiyuki

    2013-09-01

    Probability is closely related to biological organization and adaptation to the environment. Living systems need to maintain their organizational order by producing specific internal events non-randomly, and must cope with the uncertain environments. These processes involve increases in the probability of favorable events for these systems by reducing the degree of uncertainty of events. Systems with this ability will survive and reproduce more than those that have less of this ability. Probabilistic phenomena have been deeply explored using the mathematical theory of probability since Kolmogorov's axiomatization provided mathematical consistency for the theory. However, the interpretation of the concept of probability remains both unresolved and controversial, which creates problems when the mathematical theory is applied to problems in real systems. In this article, recent advances in the study of the foundations of probability from a biological viewpoint are reviewed, and a new perspective is discussed toward a comprehensive theory of probability for understanding the organization and adaptation of living systems.

  16. High temperature effects on water loss and survival examining the hardiness of female adults of the spider beetles, Mezium affine and Gibbium aequinoctiale.

    PubMed

    Yoder, Jay A; Chambers, Michael J; Tank, Justin L; Keeney, George D

    2009-01-01

    A remarkable ability to tolerate temperatures as high as 52 degrees C for Mezium affine Boieldieu and 56 degrees C for Gibbium aequinoctiale Boieldieu (Coleoptera: Anobiidae) was discovered as part of a water balance study that was conducted to determine whether desiccation-resistance (xerophilic water balance classification) is linked to survival at high temperature. Characteristics of the heat shock response were an intermediate, reversible level of injury, appearing as though dead; greater recovery from heat shock by G. aequinoctiale (57%) than M. affine (30%) that supplemented higher temperature survival by G. aequinoctiale; and lack of protection generated by conditioning at sublethal temperature. Heatinduced mortality is attributed to an abrupt, accelerated water loss at 50 degrees C for M. affine and 54 degrees C for G. aequinoctiale, not to the species (M. affine) that loses water the slowest and has the lower activation energy, E(a) as a measure of cuticular boundary effectiveness. These temperatures where water loss increases sharply are not critical transition temperatures because Arrhenius analysis causes them to be erased (uninterrupted Boltzmann function) and E(a) fails to change when cuticular lipid from these beetles is removed. Our conclusion is that the temperature thresholds for survival and accelerated water loss closely match, and the key survival element in hot and dry environments contributing to wide distribution of G. aequinoctiale and M. affine derives from rising temperature prompting entry into quiescence and a resistance in cuticular lipid fluidity.

  17. Habitat fragmentation lowers survival of a tropical forest bird.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Gutiérrez, Viviana; Gavin, Thomas A; Dhondt, André A

    2008-06-01

    Population ecology research has long been focused on linking environmental features with the viability of populations. The majority of this work has largely been carried out in temperate systems and, until recently, has examined the effects of habitat fragmentation on survival. In contrast, we looked at the effect of forest fragmentation on apparent survival of individuals of the White-ruffed Manakin (Corapipo altera) in southern Costa Rica. Survival and recapture rates were estimated using mark-recapture analyses, based on capture histories from 1993 to 2006. We sampled four forest patches ranging in size from 0.9 to 25 ha, and four sites in the larger 227-ha Las Cruces Biological Station Forest Reserve (LCBSFR). We found a significant difference in annual adult apparent survival rates for individuals marked and recaptured in forest fragments vs. individuals marked and recaptured in the larger LCBSFR. Contrary to our expectation, survival and recapture probabilities did not differ between male and female manakins. Also, there was no support for the existence of annual variation in survival within each study site. Our results suggest that forest fragmentation is likely having an effect on population dynamics for the White-ruffed Manakin in this landscape. Therefore, populations that appear to be persisting in fragmented landscapes might still be at risk of local extinction, and conservation action for tropical birds should be aimed at identifying and reducing sources of adult mortality. Future studies in fragmentation effects on reproductive success and survival, across broad geographical scales, will be needed before it is possible to achieve a clear understanding of the effects of habitat fragmentation on populations for both tropical and temperate regions.

  18. The perception of probability.

    PubMed

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making.

  19. Surviving a gender-variant childhood: the views of transgender adults on the needs of gender-variant children and their parents.

    PubMed

    Riley, Elizabeth Anne; Clemson, Lindy; Sitharthan, Gomathi; Diamond, Milton

    2013-01-01

    Adults with gender-variant childhoods have often lived traumatic lives because of the attitudes and limited understanding that people in their environment had of the concept of gender variance. This study explores the childhoods of transgender adults with the aim to understand their gender-related difficulties as children, in order to identify their needs and the needs of their parents at that time. The authors conducted a semi-structured survey with 110 transgender adults in order to explore their retrospective childhood experiences. Responses were analyzed through content and thematic coding. Their needs most commonly identified as children were for educated authority figures; acceptance and support to discuss their gender variance; freedom of identity expression; validation; and recognition. The needs most commonly allocated to their parents were access to information, education to increase other's awareness, peer support, and access to educated professionals.

  20. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  1. Survival of adult Tamarixia radiata subjected to different short-term storage methods prior to field releases for biological control of Asian citrus psyllid

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Tamarixia radiata is regarded as one of the Asian citrus psyllid’s most important natural enemies and is thus currently being mass-reared and released by a number of laboratories in North America. It may not always be possible to immediately release newly-emerged adults, in which case it would be a...

  2. Good Ol' Boys, Mean Girls, and Tyrants: A Phenomenological Study of the Lived Experiences and Survival Strategies of Bullied Women Adult Educators

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sedivy-Benton, Amy; Strohschen, Gabriele; Cavazos, Nora; Boden-McGill, Carrie

    2015-01-01

    Bullying in higher education is an increasingly common phenomenon that negatively affects organizational climate, completed work's quality and quantity, and students' educational experiences. The purpose of this phenomenological study was to investigate the lived experiences of women adult educators who were targets of bullying. Six…

  3. Estimating tail probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Carr, D.B.; Tolley, H.D.

    1982-12-01

    This paper investigates procedures for univariate nonparametric estimation of tail probabilities. Extrapolated values for tail probabilities beyond the data are also obtained based on the shape of the density in the tail. Several estimators which use exponential weighting are described. These are compared in a Monte Carlo study to nonweighted estimators, to the empirical cdf, to an integrated kernel, to a Fourier series estimate, to a penalized likelihood estimate and a maximum likelihood estimate. Selected weighted estimators are shown to compare favorably to many of these standard estimators for the sampling distributions investigated.

  4. A Unifying Probability Example.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.

    2002-01-01

    Presents an example from probability and statistics that ties together several topics including the mean and variance of a discrete random variable, the binomial distribution and its particular mean and variance, the sum of independent random variables, the mean and variance of the sum, and the central limit theorem. Uses Excel to illustrate these…

  5. Varga: On Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Varga, Tamas

    This booklet resulted from a 1980 visit by the author, a Hungarian mathematics educator, to the Teachers' Center Project at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville. Included are activities and problems that make probablility concepts accessible to young children. The topics considered are: two probability games; choosing two beads; matching…

  6. Univariate Probability Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leemis, Lawrence M.; Luckett, Daniel J.; Powell, Austin G.; Vermeer, Peter E.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a web-based interactive graphic that can be used as a resource in introductory classes in mathematical statistics. This interactive graphic presents 76 common univariate distributions and gives details on (a) various features of the distribution such as the functional form of the probability density function and cumulative distribution…

  7. Approximating Integrals Using Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.; Caudle, Kyle A.

    2005-01-01

    As part of a discussion on Monte Carlo methods, which outlines how to use probability expectations to approximate the value of a definite integral. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on this technique and then to show several examples using visual basic as a programming tool. It is an interesting method because it combines two branches of…

  8. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin, Volume XV; Appraisal of the Relationship between Tag Detection Efficiency at Bonneville Dam and the Precision of In-River Survival Estimates of Returning PIT-Tagged Chinook Salmon, 2000 Technical Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Perez-Comas, Joes A.; Skalski, John R.

    2000-07-01

    In the advent of the installation of a PIT-tag interrogation system in the Cascades Island fish ladder at Bonneville Dam, this report provides guidance on the anticipated precision of in-river survival estimates for returning adult salmonids, between Bonneville and Lower Granite dams, for various levels of system-wide adult detection probability at Bonneville Dam. Precision was characterized by the standard error of the survival estimates and the coefficient of variation of the survival estimates. The anticipated precision of in-river survival estimates for returning adult salmonids was directly proportional to the number of PIT-tagged smolts released and to the system-wide adult detection efficiency at Bonneville Dam, as well as to the in-river juvenile survival above Lower Granite Dam. Moreover, for a given release size and system-wide adult detection efficiency at Bonneville Dam, higher estuarine and marine survival rates also produced more precise survival estimates. With a system-wide detection probability of P{sub BA} = 1 at Bonneville Dam, the anticipated CVs for in-river survival estimate ranged between 9.4 and 20% with release sizes of 10,000 smolts. Moreover, if the system-wide adult detection efficiency at Bonneville Dam is less than maximum (i.e., P{sub BA} < 1), precision of CV {le} 20% could still be attained. For example, for releases of 10,000 PIT-tagged fish a CV of 20% in the estimates of in-river survival for returning adult salmon could be reach with system-wide detection probabilities of 0.2 {le} P{sub BA} {le} 0.6, depending on the tagging scenario.

  9. Detection and apparent survival of PIT-tagged stream fish in winter.

    PubMed

    Weber, Christine; Scheuber, Hannes; Nilsson, Christer; Alfredsen, Knut T

    2016-04-01

    Environmental fluctuations exert strong control on behavior, survival, and fitness of stream biota. Technical improvements increasingly allow for tracking the response of large numbers of individuals to environmental fluctuations, for instance, by remote detection of animals equipped with PIT (passive integrated transponder) tags. PIT tags were implanted into 393 juvenile and adult brown trout Salmo trutta L. and European sculpin Cottus gobio L. in a boreal stream subjected to considerable ice formation. With weekly trackings over 6 months, we quantified apparent survival and detection probability in relation to biological, environmental, and methodological factors. Individuals with a higher physical condition in autumn showed a higher apparent survival; this pattern was consistent across all species and age classes. Detection probability decreased with increasing thickness of the surface ice layer; this effect was most pronounced for juvenile trout and benthic-living sculpin, both tagged with smaller-sized tags. Detection probability was reduced in structurally complex habitats. Our study demonstrates that apparent survival and particularly detection probability may show pronounced spatiotemporal variation. In order to compare results from different sampling occasions and sites, a good knowledge of the study site and of the regulating factors is crucial.

  10. Age-specificity of black-capped chickadee survival rates: Analysis of capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Loery, G.; Pollock, K.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1987-01-01

    The ornithological literature indicates a widespread belief in two generalizations about the age-specificity of avian survival rates: (1) survival rates of young birds for some period following fledging are lower than those of adults, and (2) after reaching adulthood survival rates are constant for birds of all ages. There is a growing body of evidence in support of the first generalization, although little is known about how long the survival difference between young and adults lasts. This latter question can be addressed with capture-recapture or band recovery studies based on birds marked in the winter, but the inability to determine age in many species during winter has prevented the use of standard methods. There is very little evidence supporting the second generalization, and we are in need of methods and actual analyses that address this question. In the present paper we restate the two generalizations as hypotheses and test them using data from a wintering Black-capped Chickadee (Parus atricapillus) population in Connecticut, which has been studied by Loery for 26 yr. We use a cohort-based Jolly-Seber approach, which should be useful in other investigations of this nature. We found strong evidence of lower survival rates in 1st-yr birds than in adults, but could not determine whether this was the result of higher mortality rates, higher emigration rates, or a combination of the two. We also found evidence that survival rates of adult birds were not constant with age but decreased at a rate of ? 3.5%/yr. As adult birds are very faithful to their wintering areas, we believe that almost all this decrease can be attributed to an increase in mortality with age. Simulation results suggest that heterogeneity of capture probabilities could not explain the magnitude of the decrease in survival with age. Age-dependent tag loss is also discussed as an alternative explanation, but is dismissed as very unlikely in this situation. This analysis thus provides some of the

  11. Habitat fragmentation effects on annual survival of the federally protected eastern indigo snake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breininger, D.R.; Mazerolle, M.J.; Bolt, M.R.; Legare, M.L.; Drese, J.H.; Hines, J.E.

    2012-01-01

    The eastern indigo snake (Drymarchon couperi) is a federally listed species, most recently threatened by habitat loss and habitat degradation. In an effort to estimate snake survival, a total of 103 individuals (59 males, 44 females) were followed using radio-tracking from January 1998 to March 2004 in three landscape types that had increasing levels of habitat fragmentation: (1) conservation cores; (2) conservation areas along highways; (3) suburbs. Because of a large number of radio-tracking locations underground for which the state of snakes (i.e. alive or dead) could not be assessed, we employed a multistate approach to model snake apparent survival and encounter probability of live and dead snakes. We predicted that male snakes in suburbs would have the lowest annual survival. We found a transmitter implantation effect on snake encounter probability, as snakes implanted on a given occasion had a lower encounter probability on the next visit compared with snakes not implanted on the previous occasion. Our results indicated that adult eastern indigo snakes have relatively high survival in conservation core areas, but greatly reduced survival in conservation areas along highways and in suburbs. These findings indicate that habitat fragmentation is likely to be the critical factor for species' persistence.

  12. Bayesian Probability Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  13. Superpositions of probability distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen

    2008-09-01

    Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=σ2 play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.

  14. Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

    2015-12-01

    Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

  15. Statistical Survival Analysis of Fish and Wildlife Tagging Studies; SURPH.1 Manual - Analysis of Release-Recapture Data for Survival Studies, 1994 Technical Manual.

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven G.; Skalski, John R.; Schelechte, J. Warren

    1994-12-01

    Program SURPH is the culmination of several years of research to develop a comprehensive computer program to analyze survival studies of fish and wildlife populations. Development of this software was motivated by the advent of the PIT-tag (Passive Integrated Transponder) technology that permits the detection of salmonid smolt as they pass through hydroelectric facilities on the Snake and Columbia Rivers in the Pacific Northwest. Repeated detections of individually tagged smolt and analysis of their capture-histories permits estimates of downriver survival probabilities. Eventual installation of detection facilities at adult fish ladders will also permit estimation of ocean survival and upstream survival of returning salmon using the statistical methods incorporated in SURPH.1. However, the utility of SURPH.1 far exceeds solely the analysis of salmonid tagging studies. Release-recapture and radiotelemetry studies from a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic species have been analyzed using SURPH.1 to estimate discrete time survival probabilities and investigate survival relationships. The interactive computing environment of SURPH.1 was specifically developed to allow researchers to investigate the relationship between survival and capture processes and environmental, experimental and individual-based covariates. Program SURPH.1 represents a significant advancement in the ability of ecologists to investigate the interplay between morphologic, genetic, environmental and anthropogenic factors on the survival of wild species. It is hoped that this better understanding of risk factors affecting survival will lead to greater appreciation of the intricacies of nature and to improvements in the management of wild resources. This technical report is an introduction to SURPH.1 and provides a user guide for both the UNIX and MS-Windows{reg_sign} applications of the SURPH software.

  16. Efficient Probability Sequences

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-08-18

    Ungar (2014), to produce a distinct forecasting system. The system consists of the method for eliciting individual subjective forecasts together with...E. Stone, and L. H. Ungar (2014). Two reasons to make aggregated probability forecasts more extreme. Decision Analysis 11 (2), 133–145. Bickel, J. E...Letters 91 (3), 425–429. Mellers, B., L. Ungar , J. Baron, J. Ramos, B. Gurcay, K. Fincher, S. E. Scott, D. Moore, P. Atanasov, S. A. Swift, et al. (2014

  17. Searching with Probabilities

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-07-26

    DeGroot , Morris H. Probability and Statistic. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, Massachusetts, 1975. [Gillogly 78] Gillogly, J.J. Performance...distribution [ DeGroot 751 has just begun. The beta distribution has several features that might make it a more reasonable choice. As with the normal-based...1982. [Cooley 65] Cooley, J.M. and Tukey, J.W. An algorithm for the machine calculation of complex Fourier series. Math. Comp. 19, 1965. [ DeGroot 75

  18. Regional flood probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Troutman, B.M.; Karlinger, M.R.

    2003-01-01

    The T-year annual maximum flood at a site is defined to be that streamflow, that has probability 1/T of being exceeded in any given year, and for a group of sites the corresponding regional flood probability (RFP) is the probability that at least one site will experience a T-year flood in any given year. The RFP depends on the number of sites of interest and on the spatial correlation of flows among the sites. We present a Monte Carlo method for obtaining the RFP and demonstrate that spatial correlation estimates used in this method may be obtained with rank transformed data and therefore that knowledge of the at-site peak flow distribution is not necessary. We examine the extent to which the estimates depend on specification of a parametric form for the spatial correlation function, which is known to be nonstationary for peak flows. It is shown in a simulation study that use of a stationary correlation function to compute RFPs yields satisfactory estimates for certain nonstationary processes. Application of asymptotic extreme value theory is examined, and a methodology for separating channel network and rainfall effects on RFPs is suggested. A case study is presented using peak flow data from the state of Washington. For 193 sites in the Puget Sound region it is estimated that a 100-year flood will occur on the average every 4,5 years.

  19. Annual survival and site fidelity of Stellar's Eiders molting along the Alaska Peninsula

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Petersen, M.R.; Dau, C.P.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    2000-01-01

    Populations of Steller?s eiders (Polysticta stelleri) molting and wintering along the Alaska Peninsula have declined since the 1960's. We captured and marked a large sample of Steller's eiders molting in 2 lagoons along the Alaska Peninsula between 1975-97. We used mark-recapture analysis techniques to estimate annual survival and movement probabilities within and among lagoons for male and female eiders. Estimates of annual survival (?SE) were 0.899 ? 0.032 for females and 0.765 ? 0.044 for males. Both sexes showed high rates of fidelity to specific molting locations (>95%) within lagoons; yet we found no evidence that annual probability of survival differed among groups molting in different locations either within or among lagoons. We found weak evidence that annual survival decreased between the periods 1975-81 and 1991-97. The lower survival of males compared to females is unusual for waterfowl and may result in a female-biased sex ratio. We conclude that a decrease in adult survival may have initiated the long-term population decline. Further, a shortage of males may be limiting reproductive potential.

  20. Annual survival and site fidelity of Steller's eiders molting along the Alaska Peninsula

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Petersen, M.R.; Dau, C.P.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    2000-01-01

    Populations of Steller's eiders (Polysticta stelleri) molting and wintering along the Alaska Peninsula have declined since the 1960's. We captured and marked a large sample of Steller's eiders molting in 2 lagoons along the Alaska Peninsula between 1975-97. We used mark-recapture analysis techniques to estimate annual survival and movement probabilities within and among lagoons for male and female eiders. Estimates of annual survival (??SE) were 0.899 ?? 0.032 for females and 0.765 ?? 0.044 for males. Both sexes showed high rates of fidelity to specific molting locations (>95%) within lagoons; yet we found no evidence that annual probability of survival differed among groups molting in different locations either within or among lagoons. We found weak evidence that annual survival decreased between the periods 1975-81 and 1991-97. The lower survival of males compared to females is unusual for waterfowl and may result in a female-biased sex ratio. We conclude that a decrease in adult survival may have initiated the long-term population decline. Further, a shortage of males may be limiting reproductive potential.

  1. Population size, survival, and movements of white-cheeked pintails in Eastern Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collazo, J.A.; Bonilla-Martinez, G.

    2001-01-01

    We estimated numbers and survival of White-cheeked Pintails (Anas bahamensis) in eastern Puerto Rico during 1996-1999. We also quantified their movements between Culebra Island and the Humacao Wildlife Refuge, Puerto Rico. Mark-resight population size estimates averaged 1020 pintails during nine, 3-month sampling periods from January 1997 to June 1999. On average, minimum regional counts were 38 % lower than mark-resight estimates (mean = 631). Adult survival was 0.51 ?? 0.09 (SE). This estimate is similar for other anatids of similar size but broader geographic distribution. The probability of pintails surviving and staying in Humacao was hiher (67 %) than for counterparts on Culebra (31 %). The probability of surviving and moving from Culebra to Humacao (41 %) was higher than from Humacao to Culebra (20 %). These findings, and available information on reproduction, indicate that the Humacao Wildlife Refuge refuge has an important role in the regional demography of pintails. Our findings on population numbers and regional survival are encouraging, given concerns about the species' status due to habitat loss and hunting. However, our outlook for the species is tempered by the remaining gaps in the population dynamics of pintails; for examples, survival estimates of broods and fledglings (age 0-1) are needed for a comprehensive status assessment. Until additional data are obtianed, White-cheeked Pintails should continue to be protectd from hunting in Puerto Rico.

  2. Effects of radio marking on prairie falcons: Attachment failures provide insights about survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steenhof, Karen; Bates, Kirk K.; Fuller, Mark R.; Kochert, Michael N.; McKinley, J.O.; Lukacs, Paul M.

    2006-01-01

    From 1999-2002, we attached satellite-received platform transmitter terminals (PTTs) to 40 adult female prairie falcons (Falco mexicanus) on their nesting grounds in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) in southwest Idaho. We used 3 variations of a backpack harness design that had been used previously on raptors. Each radiomarked falcon also received a color leg band with a unique alphanumeric code. We monitored survival of birds using radiotelemetry and searched for marked birds on their nesting grounds during breeding seasons after marking. Because 6 falcons removed their harnesses during the first year, we were able to compare survival rates of birds that shed PTTs with those that retained them. We describe a harness design that failed prematurely as well as designs that proved successful for long-term PTT attachment. We resighted 21 marked individuals on nesting areas 1-5 years after they were radiomarked and documented 13 mortalities of satellite-tracked falcons. We used a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate apparent survival probability based on band resighting and telemetry data. Platform transmitter terminals had no short-term effects on falcons or their nesting success during the nesting season they were marked, but birds that shed their transmitters increased their probability of survival. Estimated annual survival for birds that shed their transmitters was 87% compared to 49% for birds wearing transmitters. We discuss possible reasons for differences in apparent survival rates and offer recommendations for future marking of falcons.

  3. Age-dependent survival of island vs. mainland populations of two avian scavengers: delving into migration costs.

    PubMed

    Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; De Pablo, Félix; Donázar, José Antonio

    2015-10-01

    Large terrestrial long-lived birds (including raptors) are typically sedentary on islands, even when they are migratory on the mainland. Density-dependent variation in the age at first breeding has been described as responsible for the long-term persistence of long-lived bird populations on islands. However, sedentary island populations may also benefit from higher survival rates derived from the absence of migration costs, especially for young individuals. Thus, sedentary island populations can mimic a natural experiment to study migration costs. We estimated the age-dependent survival of two sedentary raptors on the island of Menorca (Egyptian vultures Neophron percnopterus and red kites Milvus milvus) and compared these estimates with those reported for other migratory and sedentary populations. In Menorca, Egyptian vultures, but not red kites, showed low levels of human-related mortality resulting in extremely high survival probabilities, probably due to different diet choices and behavioral patterns. Juvenile Egyptian vultures and red kites in the studied population had lower survival probabilities than adults. This difference, however, was smaller than those reported for mainland migrant populations, which showed a lower juvenile survival rate. In fact, between-population comparisons suggested that survival of the young in migrant populations may be triggered by mortality factors in wintering areas. In contrast, adult survival may respond to mortality factors in breeding areas. Our results suggest that raptor species that become sedentary on islands may benefit from higher pre-breeder survival prospects in comparison with their mainland migrant counterparts. This fact, in combination with an earlier age at first reproduction, may facilitate their persistence.

  4. Critical role of astrocytic interleukin-17 A in post-stroke survival and neuronal differentiation of neural precursor cells in adult mice

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Y; Zhang, J-C; Yao, C-Y; Wu, Y; Abdelgawad, A F; Yao, S-L; Yuan, S-Y

    2016-01-01

    The brain and the immune system interact in complex ways after ischemic stroke, and the long-term effects of immune response associated with stroke remain controversial. As a linkage between innate and adaptive immunity, interleukin-17 A (IL-17 A) secreted from gamma delta (γδ) T cells has detrimental roles in the pathogenesis of acute ischemic stroke. However, to date, the long-term actions of IL-17 A after stroke have not been investigated. Here, we found that IL-17 A showed two distinct peaks of expression in the ischemic hemisphere: the first occurring within 3 days and the second on day 28 after stroke. Our data also showed that astrocyte was the major cellular source of IL-17 A that maintained and augmented subventricular zone (SVZ) neural precursor cells (NPCs) survival, neuronal differentiation, and subsequent synaptogenesis and functional recovery after stroke. IL-17 A also promoted neuronal differentiation in cultured NPCs from the ischemic SVZ. Furthermore, our in vitro data revealed that in primary astrocyte cultures activated astrocytes released IL-17 A via p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK). Culture media from reactive astrocytes increased neuronal differentiation of NSCs in vitro. Blockade of IL-17 A with neutralizing antibody prevented this effect. In addition, after screening for multiple signaling pathways, we revealed that the p38 MAPK/calpain 1 signaling pathway was involved in IL-17 A-mediated neurogenesis in vivo and in vitro. Thus, our results reveal a previously uncharacterized property of astrocytic IL-17 A in the maintenance and augment of survival and neuronal differentiation of NPCs, and subsequent synaptogenesis and spontaneous recovery after ischemic stroke. PMID:27336717

  5. Allogeneic stem cell transplantation for adult Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphocytic leukemia: comparable survival rates but different risk factors between related and unrelated transplantation in first complete remission.

    PubMed

    Nishiwaki, Satoshi; Inamoto, Yoshihiro; Sakamaki, Hisashi; Kurokawa, Mineo; Iida, Hiroatsu; Ogawa, Hiroyasu; Fukuda, Takahiro; Ozawa, Yukiyasu; Kobayashi, Naoki; Kasai, Masanobu; Mori, Takehiko; Iwato, Koji; Yoshida, Takashi; Onizuka, Makoto; Kawa, Keisei; Morishima, Yasuo; Suzuki, Ritsuro; Atsuta, Yoshiko; Miyamura, Koichi

    2010-11-18

    To identify factors to improve the outcomes of related and unrelated allogeneic stem cell transplantations (allo-SCT) for Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphocytic leukemia (Ph(-) ALL) in the first complete remission (CR1), we retrospectively analyzed 1139 Ph(-) ALL patients using the registry data, particularly the details of 641 patients transplanted in CR1. Overall survival was significantly superior among patients transplanted in CR1, but no significant difference was observed between related and unrelated allo-SCTs (related vs unrelated: 65% vs 62% at 4 years, respectively; P = .19). Among patients transplanted in CR1, relapse rates were significantly higher in related allo-SCT compared with unrelated allo-SCT, and multivariate analysis demonstrated that less than 6 months from diagnosis to allo-SCT alone was associated with relapse. On the other hand, nonrelapse mortality (NRM) was significantly higher in unrelated allo-SCT compared with related allo-SCT, and multivariate analysis demonstrated that 10 months or longer from diagnosis to allo-SCT, human leukocyte antigen mismatch, and abnormal karyotype were associated with NRM. In conclusion, our study showed comparable survival rates but different relapse rates, NRM rates, and risk factors between related and unrelated allo-SCTs. After a close consideration of these factors, the outcome of allo-SCT for adult Ph(-) ALL in CR1 could be improved.

  6. Probability Learning: Changes in Behavior Across Time and Development.

    PubMed

    Plate, Rista C; Fulvio, Jacqueline M; Shutts, Kristin; Green, C Shawn; Pollak, Seth D

    2017-01-25

    Individuals track probabilities, such as associations between events in their environments, but less is known about the degree to which experience-within a learning session and over development-influences people's use of incoming probabilistic information to guide behavior in real time. In two experiments, children (4-11 years) and adults searched for rewards hidden in locations with predetermined probabilities. In Experiment 1, children (n = 42) and adults (n = 32) changed strategies to maximize reward receipt over time. However, adults demonstrated greater strategy change efficiency. Making the predetermined probabilities more difficult to learn (Experiment 2) delayed effective strategy change for children (n = 39) and adults (n = 33). Taken together, these data characterize how children and adults alike react flexibly and change behavior according to incoming information.

  7. Think Fast, Feel Fine, Live Long: A 29-Year Study of Cognition, Health, and Survival in Middle-Aged and Older Adults.

    PubMed

    Aichele, Stephen; Rabbitt, Patrick; Ghisletta, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    In a 29-year study of 6,203 individuals ranging in age from 41 to 96 years at initial assessment, we evaluated the relative and combined influence of 65 mortality risk factors, which included sociodemographic variables, lifestyle attributes, medical indices, and multiple cognitive abilities. Reductions in mortality risk were most associated with higher self-rated health, female gender, fewer years as a smoker, and smaller decrements in processing speed with age. Thus, two psychological variables-subjective health status and processing speed-were among the top predictors of survival. We suggest that these psychological attributes, unlike risk factors that are more narrowly defined, reflect (and are influenced by) a broad range of health-related behaviors and characteristics. Information about these attributes can be obtained with relatively little effort or cost and-given the tractability of these measures in different cultural contexts-may prove expedient for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of conditions related to increased mortality risk in diverse human populations.

  8. ENDOCRINE DISRUPTIVE ACTIONS OF INHALED BENZO(a)PYRENE ON OVARIAN FUNCTION AND FETAL SURVIVAL IN FISHER F-344 ADULT RATS

    PubMed Central

    Archibong, Anthony E.; Ramesh, Aramandla; Inyang, Frank; Niaz, Mohammad S.; Hood, Darryl B.; Kopsombut, Prapaporn

    2012-01-01

    This study evaluated the effect of inhaled BaP on female reproductive function. Rats were exposed to 50, or 75 or 100 μg BaP/m3, four hours a day for 14 days via inhalation. Plasma E2, P4, LH and FSH concentrations were determined. Ovarian BaP metabolism and aryl hydrocarbon hydrolase (AHH) activity at proestrus were determined and fertility evaluations were conducted. Ovulation rate and number of pups/litter were reduced in rats exposed to 100 μg BaP/m3 compared with other treatment and control groups. Plasma concentrations of E2, and LH were significantly reduced at proestrus in BaP-exposed versus those of controls whereas those of P4 were significantly reduced at diestrus I. The activity of AHH in ovarian and liver tissues and concentrations of BaP 7,8-diol and BaP 3,6-dione metabolites increased in an exposure concentration-dependent manner. These data suggest that exposure of rats to BaP prior to mating contributes to reduced ovarian function and fetal survival. PMID:23059060

  9. Linking habitat selection and predation risk to spatial variation in survival

    PubMed Central

    DeCesare, Nicholas J; Hebblewhite, Mark; Bradley, Mark; Hervieux, David; Neufeld, Lalenia; Musiani, Marco; Mysterud, Atle

    2014-01-01

    1. A central assumption underlying the study of habitat selection is that selected habitats confer enhanced fitness. Unfortunately, this assumption is rarely tested, and in some systems, gradients of predation risk may more accurately characterize spatial variation in vital rates than gradients described by habitat selection studies. 2. Here, we separately measured spatial patterns of both resource selection and predation risk and tested their relationships with a key demographic trait, adult female survival, for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou Gmelin). We also evaluated whether exposure to gradients in both predation risk and resource selection value was manifested temporally through instantaneous or seasonal effects on survival outcomes. 3. We used Cox proportional hazards spatial survival modelling to assess the relative support for 5 selection- and risk-based definitions of habitat quality, as quantified by woodland caribou adult female survival. These hypotheses included scenarios in which selection ideally mirrored survival, risk entirely drove survival, non-ideal selection correlated with survival but with additive risk effects, an ecological trap with maladaptive selection and a non-spatial effect of annual variation in weather. 4. Indeed, we found positive relationships between the predicted values of a resource selection function (RSF) and survival, yet subsequently incorporating an additional negative effect of predation risk greatly improved models further. This revealed a positive, but non-ideal relationship between selection and survival. Gradients in these covariates were also shown to affect individual survival probability at multiple temporal scales. Exposure to increased predation risk had a relatively instantaneous effect on survival outcomes, whereas variation in habitat suitability predicted by an RSF had both instantaneous and longer-term seasonal effects on survival. 5. Predation risk was an additive source

  10. People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).

    PubMed

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2016-09-01

    A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various 'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people's conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people's estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or 'direct' probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities.

  11. Soil-Applied Imidacloprid Translocates to Ornamental Flowers and Reduces Survival of Adult Coleomegilla maculata, Harmonia axyridis, and Hippodamia convergens Lady Beetles, and Larval Danaus plexippus and Vanessa cardui Butterflies

    PubMed Central

    Krischik, Vera; Rogers, Mary; Gupta, Garima; Varshney, Aruna

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Pest Management (IPM) is a decision making process used to manage pests that relies on many tactics, including cultural and biological control, which are practices that conserve beneficial insects and mites, and when needed, the use of conventional insecticides. However, systemic, soil-applied neonicotinoid insecticides are translocated to pollen and nectar of flowers, often for months, and may reduce survival of flower-feeding beneficial insects. Imidacloprid seed-treated crops (0.05 mg AI (active ingredient) /canola seed and 1.2 mg AI/corn seed) translocate less than 10 ppb to pollen and nectar. However, higher rates of soil-applied imidacloprid are used in nurseries and urban landscapes, such as 300 mg AI/10 L (3 gallon) pot and 69 g AI applied to the soil under a 61 (24 in) cm diam. tree. Translocation of imidacloprid from soil (300 mg AI) to flowers of Asclepias curassavica resulted in 6,030 ppb in 1X and 10,400 ppb in 2X treatments, which are similar to imidacloprid residues found in another plant species we studied. A second imidacloprid soil application 7 months later resulted in 21,000 ppb in 1X and 45,000 ppb in 2X treatments. Consequently, greenhouse/nursery use of imidacloprid applied to flowering plants can result in 793 to 1,368 times higher concentration compared to an imidacloprid seed treatment (7.6 ppb pollen in seed- treated canola), where most research has focused. These higher imidacloprid levels caused significant mortality in both 1X and 2X treatments in 3 lady beetle species, Coleomegilla maculata, Harmonia axyridis, and Hippodamia convergens, but not a fourth species, Coccinella septempunctata. Adult survival were not reduced for monarch, Danaus plexippus and painted lady, Vanessa cardui, butterflies, but larval survival was significantly reduced. The use of the neonicotinoid imidacloprid at greenhouse/nursery rates reduced survival of beneficial insects feeding on pollen and nectar and is incompatible with the principles of IPM

  12. Soil-applied imidacloprid translocates to ornamental flowers and reduces survival of adult Coleomegilla maculata, Harmonia axyridis, and Hippodamia convergens lady beetles, and larval Danaus plexippus and Vanessa cardui butterflies.

    PubMed

    Krischik, Vera; Rogers, Mary; Gupta, Garima; Varshney, Aruna

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Pest Management (IPM) is a decision making process used to manage pests that relies on many tactics, including cultural and biological control, which are practices that conserve beneficial insects and mites, and when needed, the use of conventional insecticides. However, systemic, soil-applied neonicotinoid insecticides are translocated to pollen and nectar of flowers, often for months, and may reduce survival of flower-feeding beneficial insects. Imidacloprid seed-treated crops (0.05 mg AI (active ingredient) /canola seed and 1.2 mg AI/corn seed) translocate less than 10 ppb to pollen and nectar. However, higher rates of soil-applied imidacloprid are used in nurseries and urban landscapes, such as 300 mg AI/10 L (3 gallon) pot and 69 g AI applied to the soil under a 61 (24 in) cm diam. tree. Translocation of imidacloprid from soil (300 mg AI) to flowers of Asclepias curassavica resulted in 6,030 ppb in 1X and 10,400 ppb in 2X treatments, which are similar to imidacloprid residues found in another plant species we studied. A second imidacloprid soil application 7 months later resulted in 21,000 ppb in 1X and 45,000 ppb in 2X treatments. Consequently, greenhouse/nursery use of imidacloprid applied to flowering plants can result in 793 to 1,368 times higher concentration compared to an imidacloprid seed treatment (7.6 ppb pollen in seed- treated canola), where most research has focused. These higher imidacloprid levels caused significant mortality in both 1X and 2X treatments in 3 lady beetle species, Coleomegilla maculata, Harmonia axyridis, and Hippodamia convergens, but not a fourth species, Coccinella septempunctata. Adult survival were not reduced for monarch, Danaus plexippus and painted lady, Vanessa cardui, butterflies, but larval survival was significantly reduced. The use of the neonicotinoid imidacloprid at greenhouse/nursery rates reduced survival of beneficial insects feeding on pollen and nectar and is incompatible with the principles of IPM.

  13. Quality of Survival and Growth in Children and Young Adults in the PNET4 European Controlled Trial of Hyperfractionated Versus Conventional Radiation Therapy for Standard-Risk Medulloblastoma

    SciTech Connect

    Kennedy, Colin; Bull, Kim; Chevignard, Mathilde; Culliford, David; Dörr, Helmuth G.; Doz, François; Kortmann, Rolf-Dieter; Lannering, Birgitta; Massimino, Maura; Navajas Gutiérrez, Aurora; Rutkowski, Stefan; Spoudeas, Helen A.; Calaminus, Gabriele

    2014-02-01

    Purpose: To compare quality of survival in “standard-risk” medulloblastoma after hyperfractionated radiation therapy of the central nervous system with that after standard radiation therapy, combined with a chemotherapy regimen common to both treatment arms, in the PNET4 randomised controlled trial. Methods and Materials: Participants in the PNET4 trial and their parents/caregivers in 7 participating anonymized countries completed standardized questionnaires in their own language on executive function, health status, behavior, health-related quality of life, and medical, educational, employment, and social information. Pre- and postoperative neurologic status and serial heights and weights were also recorded. Results: Data were provided by 151 of 244 eligible survivors (62%) at a median age at assessment of 15.2 years and median interval from diagnosis of 5.8 years. Compared with standard radiation therapy, hyperfractionated radiation therapy was associated with lower (ie, better) z-scores for executive function in all participants (mean intergroup difference 0.48 SDs, 95% confidence interval 0.16-0.81, P=.004), but health status, behavioral difficulties, and health-related quality of life z-scores were similar in the 2 treatment arms. Data on hearing impairment were equivocal. Hyperfractionated radiation therapy was also associated with greater decrement in height z-scores (mean intergroup difference 0.43 SDs, 95% confidence interval 0.10-0.76, P=.011). Conclusions: Hyperfractionated radiation therapy was associated with better executive function and worse growth but without accompanying change in health status, behavior, or quality of life.

  14. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin, Volume XIV; Appraisal of the Relationship between Tag Detection Efficiency at Bonneville Dam and the Precision in Estuarine and Marine Survival Estimates on Returning PIT Tagged Chinook Salmon, 2000 Technical Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Perez-Comas, Jose A.; Skalski, John R.

    2000-07-01

    In the advent of the installation of a PIT-tag interrogation system in the Cascades Island fish ladder at Bonneville Dam, this report provides guidance on the anticipated precision of salmonid estuarine and marine survival estimates, for various levels of system-wide adult detection probability at Bonneville Dam. Precision was characterized by the standard error of the survival estimates and the coefficient of variation of the survival estimates. The anticipated precision of salmonid estuarine and marine survival estimates was directly proportional to the number of PIT-tagged smolts released and to the system-wide adult detection efficiency at Bonneville Dam, as well as to the in-river juvenile survival above Lower Granite Dam. Moreover, for a given release size and system-wide adult detection efficiency, higher estuarine and marine survivals did also produce more precise survival estimates. With a system-wide detection probability of P{sub BA} = 1 at Bonneville Dam, the anticipated CVs for the estuarine and marine survival ranged between 41 and 88% with release sizes of 10,000 smolts. Only with the 55,000 smolts being released from sites close to Lower Granite Dam and under high estuarine and marine survival, could CVs of 20% be attained with system detection efficiencies of less than perfect detection (i.e., P{sub BA} < 1).

  15. Survival of radio-implanted drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake) in relation to body size and sex

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hyslop, N.L.; Meyers, J.M.; Cooper, R.J.; Norton, Terry M.

    2009-01-01

    Drymarchon couperi (eastern indigo snake) has experienced population declines across its range primarily as a result of extensive habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation. Conservation efforts for D. couperi have been hindered, in part, because of informational gaps regarding the species, including a lack of data on population ecology and estimates of demographic parameters such as survival. We conducted a 2- year radiotelemetry study of D. couperi on Fort Stewart Military Reservation and adjacent private lands located in southeastern Georgia to assess individual characteristics associated with probability of survival. We used known-fate modeling to estimate survival, and an information-theoretic approach, based on a priori hypotheses, to examine intraspecific differences in survival probabilities relative to individual covariates (sex, size, size standardized by sex, and overwintering location). Annual survival in 2003 and 2004 was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.73-0.97, n = 25) and 0.72 (95% CI = 0.52-0.86; n = 27), respectively. Results indicated that body size, standardized by sex, was the most important covariate determining survival of adult D. couperi, suggesting lower survival for larger individuals within each sex. We are uncertain of the mechanisms underlying this result, but possibilities may include greater resource needs for larger individuals within each sex, necessitating larger or more frequent movements, or a population with older individuals. Our results may also have been influenced by analysis limitations because of sample size, other sources of individual variation, or environmental conditions. ?? 2009 by The Herpetologists' League, Inc.

  16. Negative effects of habitat loss on survival of migrant Warblers in a forest mosaic.

    PubMed

    Zitske, B P; Betts, M G; Diamond, A W

    2011-10-01

    Habitat loss and fragmentation in forested landscapes often negatively affect animal abundance; however, whether these factors also affect fitness is not well known. We hypothesized that observed decreases in bird occurrence and abundance in landscapes with harvested forests are associated with reduced apparent survival of adults. We defined apparent survival as an estimate of survival that accounts for an imperfect resighting probability, but not permanent emigration (i.e., dispersal). We examined the association between spatially extensive habitat loss and apparent survival of males of 2 Neotropical migrant species, Blackburnian Warbler (Dendroica fusca) and Black-Throated Green Warbler (D. virens), over 7 years in the Greater Fundy Ecosystem, New Brunswick, Canada. We estimated apparent survival among and within breeding seasons. We quantified amount of habitat in the context of individual species. In this landscape, boundaries between land-cover types are gradual rather than clearly identifiable and abrupt. Estimated apparent within-season survival of both species decreased as a function of amount of habitat within a 2000-m radius; survival was approximately 12 times (95% CI 3.43-14) greater in landscapes with 85% habitat than in landscapes with 10% habitat. Apparent annual survival also decreased as a function of amount of habitat within a 100-m radius. Over the range of habitat amount, apparent annual survival decreased 15% (95% CI 7-29%) as the amount of habitat decreased. Our results suggest that reduced species occurrence in landscapes with low proportions of habitat is due partly to lower apparent survival at these sites. This mechanism operates both directly (i.e., via effects on mortality or dispersal during breeding) and possibly through indirect effects during the nonbreeding season. Habitat loss was associated not only with a lower number of individuals, but also with lower survival of those individuals.

  17. MPTP Impairs Dopamine D1 Receptor-Mediated Survival of Newborn Neurons in Ventral Hippocampus to Cause Depressive-Like Behaviors in Adult Mice

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Tingting; Hong, Juan; Di, Tingting; Chen, Ling

    2016-01-01

    Parkinson’s disease (PD) is characterized by motor symptoms with depression. We evaluated the influence of dopaminergic depletion on hippocampal neurogenesis process to explore mechanisms of depression production. Five consecutive days of 1-Methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) injection in mice (MPTP-mice) reduced dopaminergic fibers in hippocampal dentate gyrus (DG). MPTP-mice exhibited depressive-like behaviors later for 2–3 weeks. BrdU was injected 4 h after last-injection of MPTP. BrdU-positive (BrdU+) cells in dorsal (d-DG) and ventral (v-DG) DG were examined on day 1 (D1), 7 (D7), 14 (D14) and 21 (D21) after BrdU injection. Fewer D7-, D14- and D21-BrdU+ cells or BrdU+/NeuN+ cells, but not D1-BrdU+ cells, were found in v-DG of MPTP-mice than in controls. However, the number of BrdU+ cells in d-DG did not differ between the both. Loss of doublecortin-positive (DCX+) cells was observed in v-DG of MPTP-mice. Protein kinase A (PKA) and Ca2+/cAMP-response element binding protein (CREB) phosphorylation were reduced in v-DG of MPTP-mice, which were reversed by D1-like receptor (D1R) agonist SKF38393, but not D2R agonist quinpirole. The treatment of MPTP-mice with SKF38393 on days 2–7 after BrdU-injection reduced the loss of D7- and D21-BrdU+ cells in v-DG and improved the depressive-like behaviors; these changes were sensitive to PKA inhibitor H89. Moreover, the v-DG injection of SKF38393 in MPTP-mice could reduce the loss of D21-BrdU+ cells and relieve the depressive-like behaviors. In control mice, the blockade of D1R by SCH23390 caused the reduction of D21-BrdU+ cells in v-DG and the depressive-like behaviors. Our results indicate that MPTP-reduced dopaminergic depletion impairs the D1R-mediated early survival of newborn neurons in v-DG, producing depressive-like behaviors. PMID:27790091

  18. Probability state modeling theory.

    PubMed

    Bagwell, C Bruce; Hunsberger, Benjamin C; Herbert, Donald J; Munson, Mark E; Hill, Beth L; Bray, Chris M; Preffer, Frederic I

    2015-07-01

    As the technology of cytometry matures, there is mounting pressure to address two major issues with data analyses. The first issue is to develop new analysis methods for high-dimensional data that can directly reveal and quantify important characteristics associated with complex cellular biology. The other issue is to replace subjective and inaccurate gating with automated methods that objectively define subpopulations and account for population overlap due to measurement uncertainty. Probability state modeling (PSM) is a technique that addresses both of these issues. The theory and important algorithms associated with PSM are presented along with simple examples and general strategies for autonomous analyses. PSM is leveraged to better understand B-cell ontogeny in bone marrow in a companion Cytometry Part B manuscript. Three short relevant videos are available in the online supporting information for both of these papers. PSM avoids the dimensionality barrier normally associated with high-dimensionality modeling by using broadened quantile functions instead of frequency functions to represent the modulation of cellular epitopes as cells differentiate. Since modeling programs ultimately minimize or maximize one or more objective functions, they are particularly amenable to automation and, therefore, represent a viable alternative to subjective and inaccurate gating approaches.

  19. Local survival of Dunlin wintering in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Warnock, N.; Page, G.W.; Sandercock, B.K.

    1997-01-01

    We estimated local annual survival of 1,051 individually color-banded Dunlin (Calidris alpina) at Bolinas Lagoon, California from 1979 to 1992. Resighting rates for birds banded as adults varied significantly among years, and resighting rates for first-year birds varied by sex and year. No significant differences in local survival rates were found between males and females in any age classes. First-year birds had lower local survival rates than adults. We suspect that raptor predation accounted for much of this difference and other variation in survival rates. Adult Dunlin had lower local survival rates in the year of capture than in subsequent years. Variation in resighting of some groups of individuals including transient Dunlin may account for some differences. However, capture and release of Dunlin may induce short-term behavioral changes that increase the risk of depredation by avian predators within the first few days after capture.

  20. Postfledging survival of Laysan ducks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Citta, John J.

    2007-01-01

    Precise and unbiased estimates of demographic parameters are necessary for effective population monitoring and to parameterize population models (e.g., population viability analyses). This is especially important for endangered species, where recovery planning and managers' decisions can influence species persistence. In this study, we used mark–recapture methods to estimate survival of fledged juveniles (hatch-yr [HY]) and adult (after-hatch-yr [AHY]) Laysan ducks (Anas laysanensis), an endangered anatid restricted to Laysan Island in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. To better understand population dynamics, we examined how survival varied as a function of Laysan duck density during 1998–2004. Using random effects models, we also quantified process variation in survival, thereby quantifying the appropriate source of variation for future population models. The dataset supported variation in survival that was time (yr), age (AHY vs. HY), and sex specific. Due to small sample sizes, we did not examine time specificity in the survival of HY ducks. Survival of HY ducks was 0.832 (SE = 0.087) for females (n = 21) and 0.999 (SE < 0.001) for males (n = 15) during 1998–2001. Trends in time and density lacked support as sources of variation in the survival of AHY ducks during 1998–2004. After-hatch-year survival ranged from 0.792 (SE = 0.033) to 0.999 (SE < 0.001). Where we modeled survival as a random effect, annual survival for AHY females was 0.881 (SE = 0.017) and process variation (σS) was 0.034. For AHY males, annual survival (μS) was 0.906 (SE = 0.019) and process variation (σS) was 0.040. This information will improve existing population viability analysis models for Laysan ducks. We believe that monitoring the source and translocation populations will be paramount for increasing our understanding of Laysan duck dynamics, recovery planning, and population management.

  1. Long-term maintenance combination chemotherapy with OPEC/MPEC (vincristine or methotrexate, prednisolone, etoposide and cyclophosphamide) or with daily oral etoposide and prednisolone can improve survival and quality of life in adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Matsushita, K; Matsumoto, T; Ohtsubo, H; Fujiwara, H; Imamura, N; Hidaka, S; Kukita, T; Tei, C; Matsumoto, M; Arima, N

    1999-12-01

    Acute leukemia and lymphoma varieties of adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (ATL) usually carry a poor prognosis. While etoposide is generally useful for treating ATL, especially as a daily oral maintenance regimen, etoposide has not proven effective in severe types of ATL efficient in some patients. Of 87 ATL patients whom we have treated, 51 had acute leukemia, 22 lymphoma and 14 progressive chronic leukemia. Seventy-nine patients were treated with a long term maintenance combination protocol, OPEC/MPEC (weekly doses of vincristine, 0.7 mg/m2 or methotrexate, 14 mg/m2; prednisolone, 20 mg/m2; etoposide, 70 mg/m2 and cyclophosphamide, 200 mg/m2). The other 8 patients, 3 with acute leukemia, 2 with lymphoma and 3 with progressive chronic leukemia, were treated with daily oral administration of 25 mg of etoposide and 10 mg of prednisolone (DOEP). The dose administered was modified in individual cases to maintain the granulocyte count and reduce the number of ATL cells. Considering both protocols, a complete response and a partial response were achieved in 31.0% and 58.6% patients, respectively. Median survival times (MST) of all patients and, acute leukemia, lymphoma and progressive chronic leukemia types were 7.5, 6.7, 9.6 and 12.4 months, respectively. Respective MST of patients treated with OPEC/MPEC or DOEP protocols were 7.1 and 18.0 months. Relatively normal WBC counts, lower lactate dehydrogenase concentration and normal calcium concentration, limited numbers of anatomic sites involved, good performance status and good response to chemotherapy were significantly associated with long survival time. Drug toxicity was not apparent, and about half of patients were treated in an outpatient setting.

  2. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  3. Coherent Assessment of Subjective Probability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-03-01

    known results of de Finetti (1937, 1972, 1974), Smith (1961), and Savage (1971) and some recent results of Lind- ley (1980) concerning the use of...provides the motivation for de Finettis definition of subjective probabilities as coherent bet prices. From the definition of the probability measure...subjective probability, the probability laws which are traditionally stated as axioms or definitions are obtained instead as theorems. (De Finetti F -7

  4. Age-specific survival and philopatry in three species of European ducks: a long-term study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Blums, P.; Mednis, A.; Bauga, I.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1996-01-01

    Capture-recapture and band recovery models were used to estimate age-specific survival probabilities for female Northern Shovelers (Anas clypeata), Common Pochards (Aythya ferina), and Tufted Ducks (Aythya.fuligula) at Engure Marsh, Latvia, in 1964-1993. We banded more than 65,100 day-old ducklings of both sexes and captured 10,211 incubating females (3,713 new bandings and 6,498 recaptures). We developed a set of 3-age capture-recapture models to estimate annual survival rates for female ducklings, yearlings (SY), and adults (ASY) using programs SURGE and SURVIV and selected parsimonious models using a method developed bv Akaike (1973). Survival rates of SY and ASY females were highest-for Tufted Ducks intermediate for Common Pochards, and lowest for Northern Shovelers. Survival rates of SY and ASY females varied in parallel for shovelers and pochards. We believe that much of the difference in survival estimates between SY and ASY birds was caused by mortality rather than permanent emigration. Estimates of day-old duckling survival, reflecting both mortality and permanent emigration, were 0.12 for shoveler, 0.06 for pochard, and 0.03 for Tufted Duck. For all species, duckling survival varied over years, but the pattern of variation was not similar to that of the other age classes. Estimates of survival using band recovery data for SY + ASY female pochards and Tufted Ducks were similar to the capture-recapturee stimates, suggestingt hat surviving females returned to the breeding marsh with probabilities approaching 1.

  5. Probabilities of transversions and transitions.

    PubMed

    Vol'kenshtein, M V

    1976-01-01

    The values of the mean relative probabilities of transversions and transitions have been refined on the basis of the data collected by Jukes and found to be equal to 0.34 and 0.66, respectively. Evolutionary factors increase the probability of transversions to 0.44. The relative probabilities of individual substitutions have been determined, and a detailed classification of the nonsense mutations has been given. Such mutations are especially probable in the UGG (Trp) codon. The highest probability of AG, GA transitions correlates with the lowest mean change in the hydrophobic nature of the amino acids coded.

  6. Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

  7. Survival of translocated sharp-tailed grouse: Temporal threshold and age effects

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mathews, Steven; Coates, Peter S.; Delehanty, David J.

    2016-01-01

    Context: The Columbian sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus columbianus) is a subspecies of conservation concern in the western United States, currently occupying ≤10% of its historic range. Land and management agencies are employing translocation techniques to restore Columbian sharp-tailed grouse (CSTG) populations. However, establishing self-sustaining populations by translocating grouse often is unsuccessful, owing, in part, to low survivorship of translocated grouse following release.Aims: We measured and modelled patterns of CSTG mortality for 150 days following translocation into historic range, to better understand patterns and causes of success or failure in conservation efforts to re-establish grouse populations.Methods: We conducted two independent multi-year translocations and evaluated individual and temporal factors associated with CSTG survival up to 150 days following their release. Both translocations were reintroduction attempts in Nevada, USA, to establish viable populations of CSTG into their historic range.Key results: We observed a clear temporal threshold in survival probability, with CSTG mortality substantially higher during the first 50 days following release than during the subsequent 100 days. Additionally, translocated yearling grouse exhibited higher overall survival (0.669 ± 0.062) than did adults (0.420 ± 0.052) across the 150-day period and higher survival than adults both before and after the 50-day temporal threshold.Conclusions: Translocated CSTG are especially vulnerable to mortality for 50 days following release, whereas translocated yearling grouse are more resistant to mortality than are adult grouse. On the basis of the likelihood of survival, yearling CSTG are better candidates for population restoration through translocation than are adult grouse.Implications: Management actions that ameliorate mortality factors for 50 days following translocation and translocations that employ yearling grouse will

  8. Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

    PubMed

    Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

    2012-03-01

    1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States.

  9. Survival of Children With Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Siffel, Csaba; Riehle-Colarusso, Tiffany; Oster, Matthew E.; Correa, Adolfo

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To examine the survival of infants with hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) and potential influence of demographic and clinical characteristics on survival using population-based data. METHODS Infants with nonsyndromic HLHS (n = 212) born between 1979 and 2005 were identified through the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program. Vital status was ascertained through 2009 based on linkage with vital records. We estimated Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities stratified by select demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS The overall survival probability to 2009 was 24% and significantly improved over time: from 0% in 1979–1984 to 42% in 1999–2005. Survival probability was 66% during the first week, 27% during the first year of life, and 24% during the first 10 years. Survival of very low and low birth weight or preterm infants and those born in high-poverty neighborhoods was significantly poorer. For children with information on surgical intervention (n = 88), the overall survival was 52%, and preterm infants had significantly poorer survival (31%) compared with term infants (56%). For children who survived to 1 year of age, long-term survival was ~90%. CONCLUSIONS Survival to adolescence of children with nonsyndromic HLHS born in metropolitan Atlanta has significantly improved in recent years, with those born full term, with normal birth weight, or in a low-poverty neighborhood having a higher survival probability. Survival beyond infancy to adolescence is high. A better understanding of the growing population of survivors with HLHS is needed to inform resource planning. PMID:26391936

  10. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  11. Can spores survive in interstellar space?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weber, P.; Greenberg, J. M.

    1985-01-01

    Experimental evidence is presented for the effects of very low temperature and UV radiation, characteristic of the interstellar medium, on the survival of bacteria. In the most general space environment, 10 percent survival times are only of the order of hundreds of years, too short for panspermia to work. In a substantial fraction of space within dark clouds, however, it is shown that, even with conservative figures, survival times as long as millions to tens of millions of years are attainable. In such conditions, clouds could transport organisms from one solar system to another in times significantly shorter than the mean survival time. This occurs with significant probability.

  12. The Probabilities of Unique Events

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-08-30

    probabilities into quantum mechanics, and some psychologists have argued that they have a role to play in accounting for errors in judgment [30]. But, in...Discussion The mechanisms underlying naive estimates of the probabilities of unique events are largely inaccessible to consciousness , but they...Can quantum probability provide a new direc- tion for cognitive modeling? Behavioral and Brain Sciences (in press). 31. Paolacci G, Chandler J

  13. Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  14. PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

  15. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  16. Information Processing Using Quantum Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behera, Laxmidhar

    2006-11-01

    This paper presents an information processing paradigm that introduces collective response of multiple agents (computational units) while the level of intelligence associated with the information processing has been increased manifold. It is shown that if the potential field of the Schroedinger wave equation is modulated using a self-organized learning scheme, then the probability density function associated with the stochastic data is transferred to the probability amplitude function which is the response of the Schroedinger wave equation. This approach illustrates that information processing of data with stochastic behavior can be efficiently done using quantum probability instead of classical probability. The proposed scheme has been demonstrated through two applications: denoising and adaptive control.

  17. Age-specific survival of tundra swans on the lower Alaska Peninsula

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meixell, Brandt W.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Conn, Paul B.; Dau, Christian P.; Sarvis, John E.; Sowl, Kristine M.

    2013-01-01

    The population of Tundra Swans (Cygnus columbianus columbianus) breeding on the lower Alaska Peninsula represents the southern extremity of the species' range and is uniquely nonmigratory. We used data on recaptures, resightings, and recoveries of neck-collared Tundra Swans on the lower Alaska Peninsula to estimate collar loss, annual apparent survival, and other demographic parameters for the years 1978–1989. Annual collar loss was greater for adult males fitted with either the thinner collar type (0.34) or the thicker collar type (0.15) than for other age/sex classes (thinner: 0.10, thicker: 0.04). The apparent mean probability of survival of adults (0.61) was higher than that of immatures (0.41) and for both age classes varied considerably by year (adult range: 0.44–0.95, immature range: 0.25–0.90). To assess effects of permanent emigration by age and breeding class, we analyzed post hoc the encounter histories of swans known to breed in our study area. The apparent mean survival of known breeders (0.65) was generally higher than that of the entire marked sample but still varied considerably by year (range 0.26–1.00) and indicated that permanent emigration of breeding swans was likely. We suggest that reductions in apparent survival probability were influenced primarily by high and variable rates of permanent emigration and that immigration by swans from elsewhere may be important in sustaining a breeding population at and near Izembek National Wildlife Refuge.

  18. Dispersion as a Survival Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junior, Valdivino Vargas; Machado, Fábio Prates; Roldán-Correa, Alejandro

    2016-08-01

    We consider stochastic growth models to represent population subject to catastrophes. We analyze the subject from different set ups considering or not spatial restrictions, whether dispersion is a good strategy to increase the population viability. We find out it strongly depends on the effect of a catastrophic event, the spatial constraints of the environment and the probability that each exposed individual survives when a disaster strikes.

  19. The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

    2004-01-01

    In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

  20. The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

    2004-01-01

    In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are <1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

  1. Annual survival of Snail Kites in Florida: Radio telemetry versus capture-resighting data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bennetts, R.E.; Dreitz, V.J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    1999-01-01

    We estimated annual survival of Snail Kites (Rostrhamus sociabilis) in Florida using the Kaplan-Meier estimator with data from 271 radio-tagged birds over a three-year period and capture-recapture (resighting) models with data from 1,319 banded birds over a six-year period. We tested the hypothesis that survival differed among three age classes using both data sources. We tested additional hypotheses about spatial and temporal variation using a combination of data from radio telemetry and single- and multistrata capture-recapture models. Results from these data sets were similar in their indications of the sources of variation in survival, but they differed in some parameter estimates. Both data sources indicated that survival was higher for adults than for juveniles, but they did not support delineation of a subadult age class. Our data also indicated that survival differed among years and regions for juveniles but not for adults. Estimates of juvenile survival using radio telemetry data were higher than estimates using capture-recapture models for two of three years (1992 and 1993). Ancillary evidence based on censored birds indicated that some mortality of radio-tagged juveniles went undetected during those years, resulting in biased estimates. Thus, we have greater confidence in our estimates of juvenile survival using capture-recapture models. Precision of estimates reflected the number of parameters estimated and was surprisingly similar between radio telemetry and single-stratum capture-recapture models, given the substantial differences in sample sizes. Not having to estimate resighting probability likely offsets, to some degree, the smaller sample sizes from our radio telemetry data. Precision of capture-recapture models was lower using multistrata models where region-specific parameters were estimated than using single-stratum models, where spatial variation in parameters was not taken into account.

  2. Capture probabilities for secondary resonances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malhotra, Renu

    1990-01-01

    A perturbed pendulum model is used to analyze secondary resonances, and it is shown that a self-similarity between secondary and primary resonances exists. Henrard's (1982) theory is used to obtain formulas for the capture probability into secondary resonances. The tidal evolution of Miranda and Umbriel is considered as an example, and significant probabilities of capture into secondary resonances are found.

  3. Nestling telomere shortening, but not telomere length, reflects developmental stress and predicts survival in wild birds

    PubMed Central

    Boonekamp, Jelle J.; Mulder, G. A.; Salomons, H. Martijn; Dijkstra, Cor; Verhulst, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Developmental stressors often have long-term fitness consequences, but linking offspring traits to fitness prospects has remained a challenge. Telomere length predicts mortality in adult birds, and may provide a link between developmental conditions and fitness prospects. Here, we examine the effects of manipulated brood size on growth, telomere dynamics and post-fledging survival in free-living jackdaws. Nestlings in enlarged broods achieved lower mass and lost 21% more telomere repeats relative to nestlings in reduced broods, showing that developmental stress accelerates telomere shortening. Adult telomere length was positively correlated with their telomere length as nestling (r = 0.83). Thus, an advantage of long telomeres in nestlings is carried through to adulthood. Nestling telomere shortening predicted post-fledging survival and recruitment independent of manipulation and fledgling mass. This effect was strong, with a threefold difference in recruitment probability over the telomere shortening range. By contrast, absolute telomere length was neither affected by brood size manipulation nor related to survival. We conclude that telomere loss, but not absolute telomere length, links developmental conditions to subsequent survival and suggest that telomere shortening may provide a key to unravelling the physiological causes of developmental effects on fitness. PMID:24789893

  4. Vancomycin pharmacodynamics and survival in patients with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus-associated septic shock.

    PubMed

    Zelenitsky, Sheryl; Rubinstein, Ethan; Ariano, Robert; Iacovides, Harris; Dodek, Peter; Mirzanejad, Yazdan; Kumar, Anand

    2013-03-01

    Given the lack of clinical data to guide optimal dosing of vancomycin in critically ill patients with life-threatening infections, the objective was to characterise vancomycin pharmacodynamics in MRSA-associated septic shock. Cases were extracted from an observational, multicentre study in Canadian Intensive Care Units and included 35 adult patients with MRSA-associated septic shock who received vancomycin and had a measured serum concentration within the first 72 h of therapy. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to assess variables predictive of in-hospital mortality. Patients who survived were significantly younger and had better renal function, lower probability of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, higher probability of intravenous drug use, lower probability of healthcare-associated infection and lower APACHE II score. Survivors also received higher vancomycin doses and had higher serum troughs and AUC₂₄/MIC values. The survival rate was 2.5-fold greater in patients who had vancomycin troughs ≥15 mg/L [70.6% (12/17) vs. 27.8% (5/18); P=0.001]. Two significant AUC₂₄/MIC thresholds for survival, ≥451 (P=0.006) and ≥578 (P=0.012), were identified by CART analysis. Only younger age (P=0.028) and higher vancomycin AUC₂₄/MIC (P=0.045) were significant in multivariate analyses of survival. This study of vancomycin in critically ill patients supports the current recommendation for serum troughs of at least 15 mg/L and, in patients with septic shock, an AUC₂₄/MIC threshold higher than the conventional 400. Improved survival was observed with the attainment of these pharmacodynamic targets.

  5. How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants.

    PubMed

    Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

    2016-07-01

    In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected.

  6. Definition of the Neutrosophic Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smarandache, Florentin

    2014-03-01

    Neutrosophic probability (or likelihood) [1995] is a particular case of the neutrosophic measure. It is an estimation of an event (different from indeterminacy) to occur, together with an estimation that some indeterminacy may occur, and the estimation that the event does not occur. The classical probability deals with fair dice, coins, roulettes, spinners, decks of cards, random works, while neutrosophic probability deals with unfair, imperfect such objects and processes. For example, if we toss a regular die on an irregular surface which has cracks, then it is possible to get the die stuck on one of its edges or vertices in a crack (indeterminate outcome). The sample space is in this case: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, indeterminacy}. So, the probability of getting, for example 1, is less than 1/6. Since there are seven outcomes. The neutrosophic probability is a generalization of the classical probability because, when the chance of determinacy of a stochastic process is zero, these two probabilities coincide. The Neutrosophic Probability that of an event A occurs is NP (A) = (ch (A) , ch (indetA) , ch (A ̲)) = (T , I , F) , where T , I , F are subsets of [0,1], and T is the chance that A occurs, denoted ch(A); I is the indeterminate chance related to A, ch(indetermA) ; and F is the chance that A does not occur, ch (A ̲) . So, NP is a generalization of the Imprecise Probability as well. If T, I, and F are crisp numbers then: - 0 <= T + I + F <=3+ . We used the same notations (T,I,F) as in neutrosophic logic and set.

  7. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications.

  8. Cluster membership probability: polarimetric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medhi, Biman J.; Tamura, Motohide

    2013-04-01

    Interstellar polarimetric data of the six open clusters Hogg 15, NGC 6611, NGC 5606, NGC 6231, NGC 5749 and NGC 6250 have been used to estimate the membership probability for the stars within them. For proper-motion member stars, the membership probability estimated using the polarimetric data is in good agreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. However, for proper-motion non-member stars, the membership probability estimated by the polarimetric method is in total disagreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. The inconsistencies in the determined memberships may be because of the fundamental differences between the two methods of determination: one is based on stellar proper motion in space and the other is based on selective extinction of the stellar output by the asymmetric aligned dust grains present in the interstellar medium. The results and analysis suggest that the scatter of the Stokes vectors q (per cent) and u (per cent) for the proper-motion member stars depends on the interstellar and intracluster differential reddening in the open cluster. It is found that this method could be used to estimate the cluster membership probability if we have additional polarimetric and photometric information for a star to identify it as a probable member/non-member of a particular cluster, such as the maximum wavelength value (λmax), the unit weight error of the fit (σ1), the dispersion in the polarimetric position angles (overline{ɛ }), reddening (E(B - V)) or the differential intracluster reddening (ΔE(B - V)). This method could also be used to estimate the membership probability of known member stars having no membership probability as well as to resolve disagreements about membership among different proper-motion surveys.

  9. Juvenile survival in a tropical population of roseate terns: Interannual variation and effect of tick parasitism

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monticelli, David; Ramos, Jaime A.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.

    2008-01-01

    Many demographic studies on long-lived seabirds have focused on the estimation of adult survival, but much less is known about survival during the early years of life, especially in tropical species. We report analyses of a capture–recapture dataset of 685 roseate terns ringed as fledglings and adults between 1998 and 2005 on Aride Island, Seychelles, and recaptured/resighted at the same colony site over a 5 yr (2002 to 2006) period. A multistate model was used to estimate survival for different age classes, including juvenile (first-year) birds returning as non-breeding prospectors. The effect of infestation by parasites (ticks) on survival was also examined. Overall, the estimated return of first-year individuals to the natal colony was very variable, ranging from 2 to 22%. Conditioned on survival, the probability of returning from Age 2 yr onwards increased to 70%. Survival rates were best modeled as time-specific, with estimates varying from 0.02 to 1.00 (mean 0.69) in first-year birds with a marked negative effect of tick infestation. In older birds (minimum age of 2 yr), the annual estimates fell between 0.69 and 0.86 (mean 0.77). Using a components of variance approach for estimation of year-to-year variation, we found high temporal variability for first-year individuals (coefficient of variation [CV] = 65%) compared to much less variation in the survival rate of older birds (CV = 9%). These findings agree with the life-history prediction that demographic rates of juveniles are usually lower and more variable than those of older individuals. Our results are also consistent with the predicted negative effect of tick parasitism on juvenile survival. Compared with data from other roseate tern populations, survival over the first 2 yr (Age 0 to 2 yr) was 18 to 40% higher in this study, suggesting that a high ‘young’ survival rate may be an important demographic trait in this tropical population to compensate for the low annual reproductive success. Our

  10. Holographic Probabilities in Eternal Inflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bousso, Raphael

    2006-11-01

    In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.

  11. Survival analysis and Cox regression.

    PubMed

    Benítez-Parejo, N; Rodríguez del Águila, M M; Pérez-Vicente, S

    2011-01-01

    The data provided by clinical trials are often expressed in terms of survival. The analysis of survival comprises a series of statistical analytical techniques in which the measurements analysed represent the time elapsed between a given exposure and the outcome of a certain event. Despite the name of these techniques, the outcome in question does not necessarily have to be either survival or death, and may be healing versus no healing, relief versus pain, complication versus no complication, relapse versus no relapse, etc. The present article describes the analysis of survival from both a descriptive perspective, based on the Kaplan-Meier estimation method, and in terms of bivariate comparisons using the log-rank statistic. Likewise, a description is provided of the Cox regression models for the study of risk factors or covariables associated to the probability of survival. These models are defined in both simple and multiple forms, and a description is provided of how they are calculated and how the postulates for application are checked - accompanied by illustrating examples with the shareware application R.

  12. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    PubMed

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction.

  13. Dinosaurs, Dinosaur Eggs, and Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Teppo, Anne R.; Hodgson, Ted

    2001-01-01

    Outlines several recommendations for teaching probability in the secondary school. Offers an activity that employs simulation by hand and using a programmable calculator in which geometry, analytical geometry, and discrete mathematics are explored. (KHR)

  14. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, J. Acacio

    2012-12-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  15. Social class and survival on the S.S. Titanic.

    PubMed

    Hall, W

    1986-01-01

    Passengers' chances of surviving the sinking of the S.S. Titanic were related to their sex and their social class: females were more likely to survive than males, and the chances of survival declined with social class as measured by the class in which the passenger travelled. The probable reasons for these differences in rates of survival are discussed as are the reasons accepted by the Mersey Committee of Inquiry into the sinking.

  16. Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2015-01-01

    This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

  17. Survival of cackling Canada geese, 1982-1988

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Raveling, D.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Zezulak, D.S.; Silveira, J.G.; Johnson, J.C.; Aldrich, T.W.; Weldon, J.A.

    1992-01-01

    We estimated seasonal and annual survival rates of cackling Canada geese (Branta canadensis minima ) for the period 1982-1989 to identify periods of high mortality and assess effects of harvest management decisions. We tested hypotheses about age- and sex-specific variation in survival, seasonal variation in survival rates, and variation in survival between years in which hunting seasons were open and closed. Geese were marked with individually identifiable neckbands and observed from autumn through spring. We used these data to estimate survival rates for 3-month periods in early (EW) and late (LW) winter and a 6-month period in summer (SU). Mean annual survival rates of immature females were lower than those of adults over the entire study. Survival rates of immature males were lower than those of adults during the 2 years with sport hunting seasons. We found no evidence of sex-specific differences in seasonal or annual survival rates of immature geese.

  18. Cohort variation in offspring growth and survival: prenatal and postnatal factors in a late-maturing viviparous snake.

    PubMed

    Baron, Jean-Pierre; Le Galliard, Jean-François; Tully, Thomas; Ferrière, Régis

    2010-05-01

    1. Recruitment to adulthood plays an important role in the population dynamics of late-maturing organisms as it is usually variable. Compared to birds and mammals, few studies assessing the contributions to this variation of environmental factors, offspring traits and maternal traits have been carried out for late-maturing snakes. 2. Cohort variation in recruitment through offspring growth and survival in the meadow viper (Vipera ursinii ursinii) was evaluated from 13 years of mark-recapture data collected at Mont Ventoux, France. In this species, females are mature at the age of 4-6 years and adult survival and fecundity rates are high and constant over time. 3. Offspring were difficult to catch during the first 3 years of their lives, but their mean annual probability of survival was reasonably high (0.48 +/- 0.11 SE). Mass and body condition at birth (mass residuals) varied significantly between years, decreased with litter size, and increased with maternal length. 4. Cohorts of offspring in better condition at birth grew faster, but offspring growth was not affected by sex, habitat or maternal traits. 5. Survival varied considerably between birth cohorts, some cohorts having a high-survival rate and others having essentially no survivors. No difference in mass or body condition at birth was found between cohorts with 'no survival' and 'good survival'. However, offspring survival in cohorts with good survival was positively correlated with mass at birth and negatively correlated with body condition at birth. 6. Thus, variation in offspring performance was influenced by direct environmental effects on survival and indirect environmental effects on growth, mediated by body condition at birth. Effects of maternal traits were entirely channelled through offspring traits.

  19. Persistence with Chytridiomycosis does not assure survival of direct-developing frogs.

    PubMed

    Longo, Ana V; Burrowes, Patricia A

    2010-06-01

    The chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has been linked to extinction and decline of numerous amphibians. We studied the population-level effects of Bd in two post-decline anuran species, Eleutherodactylus coqui and E. portoricensis, at El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico. Data on amphibian abundance was updated to report long-term population trends. Mark-recapture data was used to monitor Bd-infection status and estimate survival probabilities of infected versus uninfected adults. Prevalence of Bd (number of infected/total sampled) and individual infection level (number of zoospores) were compared among age classes at Palo Colorado Forest (661 m) and Elfin Forest (850 m). Results revealed that both species continued to decrease in Palo Colorado Forest, while in the Elfin Forest, E. portoricensis recuperated from drastic declines. Age class, season, and locality significantly predicted zoospore load. Age was also significantly associated with high zoospores loads among Bd-positive frogs, and the prevalence of Bd was higher in juveniles than adults in all populations studied. We suggest that early age represents a critical life stage in the survival of direct-developing frogs infected by this fungus. Survival probability was always higher for uninfected frogs, but recapture rates of infected versus uninfected adults were significantly different only in Palo Colorado, alerting that the negative effect of Bd infection under enzootic conditions is greater at mid-elevations. This work contributes to our understanding of how direct-developing amphibians persist with Bd, pointing to critical life stages and synergistic interactions that may induce fluctuations and/or declines in the wild.

  20. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    PubMed

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods.

  1. Detonation probabilities of high explosives

    SciTech Connect

    Eisenhawer, S.W.; Bott, T.F.; Bement, T.R.

    1995-07-01

    The probability of a high explosive violent reaction (HEVR) following various events is an extremely important aspect of estimating accident-sequence frequency for nuclear weapons dismantlement. In this paper, we describe the development of response curves for insults to PBX 9404, a conventional high-performance explosive used in US weapons. The insults during dismantlement include drops of high explosive (HE), strikes of tools and components on HE, and abrasion of the explosive. In the case of drops, we combine available test data on HEVRs and the results of flooring certification tests to estimate the HEVR probability. For other insults, it was necessary to use expert opinion. We describe the expert solicitation process and the methods used to consolidate the responses. The HEVR probabilities obtained from both approaches are compared.

  2. Probability and delay discounting of erotic stimuli.

    PubMed

    Lawyer, Steven R

    2008-09-01

    Adult undergraduate men (n=38) and women (n=33) were categorized as erotica "users" (n=34) and "non-users" (n=37) based on their responses to screening questions and completed computerized delay and probability discounting tasks concerning hypothetical money and erotica. Erotica users discounted the value of erotica similarly to money on three of the four erotica tasks; erotica non-users discounted the value of money consistent with erotica users, but not the value of erotica. Erotica users were disproportionately male, scored higher on several psychometric measures of sexuality-related constructs, and exhibited more impulsive choice patterns on the delay discounting for money task than erotica non-users did. These findings suggest that discounting processes generalize to erotic outcomes for some individuals.

  3. Interference of probabilities in dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Zak, Michail

    2014-08-15

    A new class of dynamical systems with a preset type of interference of probabilities is introduced. It is obtained from the extension of the Madelung equation by replacing the quantum potential with a specially selected feedback from the Liouville equation. It has been proved that these systems are different from both Newtonian and quantum systems, but they can be useful for modeling spontaneous collective novelty phenomena when emerging outputs are qualitatively different from the weighted sum of individual inputs. Formation of language and fast decision-making process as potential applications of the probability interference is discussed.

  4. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, G. D.; Zucker, L. J.

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  5. A thalassemic child becomes adult.

    PubMed

    Galanello, Renzo

    2003-03-01

    In the last decades, treatment of patients with beta-thalassemia has changed considerably, with advances in red cell transfusion and the introduction of iron chelation therapy. This progress has greatly increased the probability for a thalassemic child to reach adult age with a good quality of life. At present, the prognosis for thalassemia major patients is "open-ended". Compliance with the conventional treatment and psychological support are critical to obtain good results. The expectancy of a long survival of good quality encourages the patients to plan their future life, having a job, a family and often children. Optimal treatment of thalassemia major is expensive and for this reason, unfortunately, available only for a minority of patients in the world. Despite the significant advances, other progresses are expected to further improve survival and quality of life. The major aim is the cure of the disease, increasing the possibility of bone marrow transplantation using HLA-matched unrelated donors, and hopefully, in the future, gene therapy. However, even the conventional treatment and in particular iron chelation is expected to improve. Efforts should be made by the Western countries, and by the international health and economic organizations to provide continuous and concrete support for achieving a high standard of management for thalassemia in all places of the world.

  6. Window survivability in endoatmospheric environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lumb, Stewart B.; Majeski, Judith A.; Mills, J. S.

    1993-06-01

    An optical seeker window has been shown to survive hypersonic, endoatmospheric environments such as those encountered during Theater Defense or National Missile Defense engagements. The two periods most critical to the window are shroud removal and the subsequent cooling during acquisition and homing. The loads encountered during shroud removal are predicted by applying scaling functions to wind tunnel data. A nonlinear dynamic transient stress analysis is shown to match the wind tunnel strain measurements. The predicted stresses are then input into a Weibull statistical method to predict the probability of window survival during shroud separation. After the shroud is away, the window requires cooling to prevent excessive distortion caused by rapid heating. Analyses show that deflections of the window are small. The thermally induced stresses are low compared to stresses during shroud removal.

  7. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  8. Risk estimation using probability machines

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  9. On probability-possibility transformations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

    1992-01-01

    Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

  10. Children's Understanding of Posterior Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Girotto, Vittorio; Gonzalez, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Do young children have a basic intuition of posterior probability? Do they update their decisions and judgments in the light of new evidence? We hypothesized that they can do so extensionally, by considering and counting the various ways in which an event may or may not occur. The results reported in this paper showed that from the age of five,…

  11. Comments on quantum probability theory.

    PubMed

    Sloman, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Quantum probability theory (QP) is the best formal representation available of the most common form of judgment involving attribute comparison (inside judgment). People are capable, however, of judgments that involve proportions over sets of instances (outside judgment). Here, the theory does not do so well. I discuss the theory both in terms of descriptive adequacy and normative appropriateness.

  12. Probability Simulation in Middle School.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lappan, Glenda; Winter, M. J.

    1980-01-01

    Two simulations designed to teach probability to middle-school age pupils are presented. The first simulates the one-on-one foul shot simulation in basketball; the second deals with collecting a set of six cereal box prizes by buying boxes containing one toy each. (MP)

  13. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  14. Time-dependent earthquake probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.; Belardinelli, M.E.; Cocco, M.; Reasenberg, P.

    2005-01-01

    We have attempted to provide a careful examination of a class of approaches for estimating the conditional probability of failure of a single large earthquake, particularly approaches that account for static stress perturbations to tectonic loading as in the approaches of Stein et al. (1997) and Hardebeck (2004). We have loading as in the framework based on a simple, generalized rate change formulation and applied it to these two approaches to show how they relate to one another. We also have attempted to show the connection between models of seismicity rate changes applied to (1) populations of independent faults as in background and aftershock seismicity and (2) changes in estimates of the conditional probability of failures of different members of a the notion of failure rate corresponds to successive failures of different members of a population of faults. The latter application requires specification of some probability distribution (density function of PDF) that describes some population of potential recurrence times. This PDF may reflect our imperfect knowledge of when past earthquakes have occurred on a fault (epistemic uncertainty), the true natural variability in failure times, or some combination of both. We suggest two end-member conceptual single-fault models that may explain natural variability in recurrence times and suggest how they might be distinguished observationally. When viewed deterministically, these single-fault patch models differ significantly in their physical attributes, and when faults are immature, they differ in their responses to stress perturbations. Estimates of conditional failure probabilities effectively integrate over a range of possible deterministic fault models, usually with ranges that correspond to mature faults. Thus conditional failure probability estimates usually should not differ significantly for these models. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  15. Testing assumptions for unbiased estimation of survival of radiomarked harlequin ducks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esler, Daniel; Mulcahy, Daniel M.; Jarvis, Robert L.

    2000-01-01

    Unbiased estimates of survival based on individuals outfitted with radiotransmitters require meeting the assumptions that radios do not affect survival, and animals for which the radio signal is lost have the same survival probability as those for which fate is known. In most survival studies, researchers have made these assumptions without testing their validity. We tested these assumptions by comparing interannual recapture rates (and, by inference, survival) between radioed and unradioed adult female harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus), and for radioed females, between right-censored birds (i.e., those for which the radio signal was lost during the telemetry monitoring period) and birds with known fates. We found that recapture rates of birds equipped with implanted radiotransmitters (21.6 ± 3.0%; x̄ ± SE) were similar to unradioed birds (21.7 ± 8.6%), suggesting that radios did not affect survival. Recapture rates also were similar between right-censored (20.6 ± 5.1%) and known-fate individuals (22.1 ± 3.8%), suggesting that missing birds were not subject to differential mortality. We also determined that capture and handling resulted in short-term loss of body mass for both radioed and unradioed females and that this effect was more pronounced for radioed birds (the difference between groups was 15.4 ± 7.1 g). However, no difference existed in body mass after recapture 1 year later. Our study suggests that implanted radios are an unbiased method for estimating survival of harlequin ducks and likely other species under similar circumstances.

  16. Understanding Y haplotype matching probability.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Charles H

    2014-01-01

    The Y haplotype population-genetic terrain is better explored from a fresh perspective rather than by analogy with the more familiar autosomal ideas. For haplotype matching probabilities, versus for autosomal matching probabilities, explicit attention to modelling - such as how evolution got us where we are - is much more important while consideration of population frequency is much less so. This paper explores, extends, and explains some of the concepts of "Fundamental problem of forensic mathematics - the evidential strength of a rare haplotype match". That earlier paper presented and validated a "kappa method" formula for the evidential strength when a suspect matches a previously unseen haplotype (such as a Y-haplotype) at the crime scene. Mathematical implications of the kappa method are intuitive and reasonable. Suspicions to the contrary raised in rest on elementary errors. Critical to deriving the kappa method or any sensible evidential calculation is understanding that thinking about haplotype population frequency is a red herring; the pivotal question is one of matching probability. But confusion between the two is unfortunately institutionalized in much of the forensic world. Examples make clear why (matching) probability is not (population) frequency and why uncertainty intervals on matching probabilities are merely confused thinking. Forensic matching calculations should be based on a model, on stipulated premises. The model inevitably only approximates reality, and any error in the results comes only from error in the model, the inexactness of the approximation. Sampling variation does not measure that inexactness and hence is not helpful in explaining evidence and is in fact an impediment. Alternative haplotype matching probability approaches that various authors have considered are reviewed. Some are based on no model and cannot be taken seriously. For the others, some evaluation of the models is discussed. Recent evidence supports the adequacy of

  17. On the probability of cure for heavy-ion radiotherapy.

    PubMed

    Hanin, Leonid; Zaider, Marco

    2014-07-21

    The probability of a cure in radiation therapy (RT)-viewed as the probability of eventual extinction of all cancer cells-is unobservable, and the only way to compute it is through modeling the dynamics of cancer cell population during and post-treatment. The conundrum at the heart of biophysical models aimed at such prospective calculations is the absence of information on the initial size of the subpopulation of clonogenic cancer cells (also called stem-like cancer cells), that largely determines the outcome of RT, both in an individual and population settings. Other relevant parameters (e.g. potential doubling time, cell loss factor and survival probability as a function of dose) are, at least in principle, amenable to empirical determination. In this article we demonstrate that, for heavy-ion RT, microdosimetric considerations (justifiably ignored in conventional RT) combined with an expression for the clone extinction probability obtained from a mechanistic model of radiation cell survival lead to useful upper bounds on the size of the pre-treatment population of clonogenic cancer cells as well as upper and lower bounds on the cure probability. The main practical impact of these limiting values is the ability to make predictions about the probability of a cure for a given population of patients treated to newer, still unexplored treatment modalities from the empirically determined probability of a cure for the same or similar population resulting from conventional low linear energy transfer (typically photon/electron) RT. We also propose that the current trend to deliver a lower total dose in a smaller number of fractions with larger-than-conventional doses per fraction has physical limits that must be understood before embarking on a particular treatment schedule.

  18. On the probability of cure for heavy-ion radiotherapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanin, Leonid; Zaider, Marco

    2014-07-01

    The probability of a cure in radiation therapy (RT)—viewed as the probability of eventual extinction of all cancer cells—is unobservable, and the only way to compute it is through modeling the dynamics of cancer cell population during and post-treatment. The conundrum at the heart of biophysical models aimed at such prospective calculations is the absence of information on the initial size of the subpopulation of clonogenic cancer cells (also called stem-like cancer cells), that largely determines the outcome of RT, both in an individual and population settings. Other relevant parameters (e.g. potential doubling time, cell loss factor and survival probability as a function of dose) are, at least in principle, amenable to empirical determination. In this article we demonstrate that, for heavy-ion RT, microdosimetric considerations (justifiably ignored in conventional RT) combined with an expression for the clone extinction probability obtained from a mechanistic model of radiation cell survival lead to useful upper bounds on the size of the pre-treatment population of clonogenic cancer cells as well as upper and lower bounds on the cure probability. The main practical impact of these limiting values is the ability to make predictions about the probability of a cure for a given population of patients treated to newer, still unexplored treatment modalities from the empirically determined probability of a cure for the same or similar population resulting from conventional low linear energy transfer (typically photon/electron) RT. We also propose that the current trend to deliver a lower total dose in a smaller number of fractions with larger-than-conventional doses per fraction has physical limits that must be understood before embarking on a particular treatment schedule.

  19. Habitat use and survival rates of wintering American woodcocks in coastal South Carolina and Georgia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Seginak, J.T.; Longcore, Jerry R.; Sepik, Greg F.

    1993-01-01

    Habitat use and survival rates of radio-marked American woodcocks (Scolopax minor) were studied during the winter in coastal South Carolina (1988-89) and Georgia (1989-90). Soon after they arrived, woodcocks were captured in mist nets or in modified shorebird traps or by nightlighting. Each bird was weighed, aged, sexed, and fitted with a 4-g radio transmitter and monitored daily until it died or could not be located or until its radio failed. During the day, the woodcocks in South Carolina frequented seasonally flooded stands of gum-oak-willow (Liquidambar-Quercus-Salix) > 75% of the time and <15-year-old pine (Pinus spp.) plantations during the remaining time. The predominantly used understory vegetation was switch cane (Arundinaria gigantica). In Georgia, woodcocks used bottomland hardwoods, young pine plantations (<15-years-old), mature pine-hardwood stands, and clear-cuttings that had regenerated naturally. Wax myrtle (Myrica cerifera) dominated the used understory species at these sites. The woodcocks in South Carolina rarely made daily moves between daytime and nighttime cover, whereas the birds in Georgia made regular flights. At both sites, the daily survival rates of females were low, especially in the absence of losses from hunting. Daily survival rates of females ranged from 0.992 in adults to 0.994 in young. Daily survival rates of males ranged from 1.0 in adults to 0.996 in young. We determined no significant differences in the daily survival rates of woodcocks by age or sex in either South Carolina or Georgia. Probable predators of radio-marked woodcocks included bobcats (Lynx rufus), gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), and barred owls (Strix varia).

  20. Probability summation--a critique.

    PubMed

    Laming, Donald

    2013-03-01

    This Discussion Paper seeks to kill off probability summation, specifically the high-threshold assumption, as an explanatory idea in visual science. In combination with a Weibull function of a parameter of about 4, probability summation can accommodate, to within the limits of experimental error, the shape of the detectability function for contrast, the reduction in threshold that results from the combination of widely separated grating components, summation with respect to duration at threshold, and some instances, but not all, of spatial summation. But it has repeated difficulty with stimuli below threshold, because it denies the availability of input from such stimuli. All the phenomena listed above, and many more, can be accommodated equally accurately by signal-detection theory combined with an accelerated nonlinear transform of small, near-threshold, contrasts. This is illustrated with a transform that is the fourth power for the smallest contrasts, but tends to linear above threshold. Moreover, this particular transform can be derived from elementary properties of sensory neurons. Probability summation cannot be regarded as a special case of a more general theory, because it depends essentially on the 19th-century notion of a high fixed threshold. It is simply an obstruction to further progress.

  1. Objective Probability and Quantum Fuzziness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohrhoff, U.

    2009-02-01

    This paper offers a critique of the Bayesian interpretation of quantum mechanics with particular focus on a paper by Caves, Fuchs, and Schack containing a critique of the “objective preparations view” or OPV. It also aims to carry the discussion beyond the hardened positions of Bayesians and proponents of the OPV. Several claims made by Caves et al. are rebutted, including the claim that different pure states may legitimately be assigned to the same system at the same time, and the claim that the quantum nature of a preparation device cannot legitimately be ignored. Both Bayesians and proponents of the OPV regard the time dependence of a quantum state as the continuous dependence on time of an evolving state of some kind. This leads to a false dilemma: quantum states are either objective states of nature or subjective states of belief. In reality they are neither. The present paper views the aforesaid dependence as a dependence on the time of the measurement to whose possible outcomes the quantum state serves to assign probabilities. This makes it possible to recognize the full implications of the only testable feature of the theory, viz., the probabilities it assigns to measurement outcomes. Most important among these are the objective fuzziness of all relative positions and momenta and the consequent incomplete spatiotemporal differentiation of the physical world. The latter makes it possible to draw a clear distinction between the macroscopic and the microscopic. This in turn makes it possible to understand the special status of measurements in all standard formulations of the theory. Whereas Bayesians have written contemptuously about the “folly” of conjoining “objective” to “probability,” there are various reasons why quantum-mechanical probabilities can be considered objective, not least the fact that they are needed to quantify an objective fuzziness. But this cannot be appreciated without giving thought to the makeup of the world, which

  2. A Winter Survival Unit.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Ronald E.

    1979-01-01

    The article is a condensation of materials from the winter survival unit of a Canadian snow ecology course. The unit covers: cold physiology, frostbite, snowblindness, hypothermia, winter campout, and survival strategies. (SB)

  3. Contact and contagion: Bighorn sheep demographic states vary in probability of transmission given contact.

    PubMed

    Manlove, Kezia R; Cassirer, E Frances; Plowright, Raina K; Cross, Paul C; Hudson, Peter J

    2017-03-20

    1.Understanding both contact and probability of transmission given contact are key to managing wildlife disease. However, wildlife disease research tends to focus on contact heterogeneity, in part because probability of transmission given contact is notoriously difficult to measure. Here we present a first step toward empirically investigating probability of transmission given contact in free-ranging wildlife. 2.We used measured contact networks to test whether bighorn sheep demographic states vary systematically in infectiousness or susceptibility to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, an agent responsible for bighorn sheep pneumonia. 3.We built covariates using contact network metrics, demographic information, and infection status, and used logistic regression to relate those covariates to lamb survival. The covariate set contained degree, a classic network metric describing node centrality, but also included covariates breaking the network metrics into subsets that differentiated between contacts with yearlings, ewes with lambs, and ewes without lambs, and animals with and without active infections. 4.Yearlings, ewes with lambs, and ewes without lambs showed similar group membership patterns, but direct interactions involving touch occurred at a rate two orders of magnitude higher between lambs and reproductive ewes than between any classes of adults or yearlings, and one order of magnitude higher than direct interactions between lambs. 5.Although yearlings and non-reproductive bighorn ewes regularly carried Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, our models suggest that a contact with an infected reproductive ewe had approximately five times the odds of producing a lamb mortality event of an identical contact with an infected dry ewe or yearling. Consequently, management actions targeting infected animals might lead to unnecessary removal of young animals who carry pathogens but rarely transmit. 6.This analysis demonstrates a simple logistic regression approach for testing a priori

  4. Understanding survival analysis: Kaplan-Meier estimate

    PubMed Central

    Goel, Manish Kumar; Khanna, Pardeep; Kishore, Jugal

    2010-01-01

    Kaplan-Meier estimate is one of the best options to be used to measure the fraction of subjects living for a certain amount of time after treatment. In clinical trials or community trials, the effect of an intervention is assessed by measuring the number of subjects survived or saved after that intervention over a period of time. The time starting from a defined point to the occurrence of a given event, for example death is called as survival time and the analysis of group data as survival analysis. This can be affected by subjects under study that are uncooperative and refused to be remained in the study or when some of the subjects may not experience the event or death before the end of the study, although they would have experienced or died if observation continued, or we lose touch with them midway in the study. We label these situations as censored observations. The Kaplan-Meier estimate is the simplest way of computing the survival over time in spite of all these difficulties associated with subjects or situations. The survival curve can be created assuming various situations. It involves computing of probabilities of occurrence of event at a certain point of time and multiplying these successive probabilities by any earlier computed probabilities to get the final estimate. This can be calculated for two groups of subjects and also their statistical difference in the survivals. This can be used in Ayurveda research when they are comparing two drugs and looking for survival of subjects. PMID:21455458

  5. Spatial patterns of coral survivorship: impacts of adult proximity versus other drivers of localized mortality

    PubMed Central

    Gibbs, David A.

    2015-01-01

    Species-specific enemies may promote prey coexistence through negative distance- and density-dependent survival of juveniles near conspecific adults. We tested this mechanism by transplanting juvenile-sized fragments of the brooding corals Pocillopora damicornis and Seriatopora hystrix 3, 12, 24 and 182 cm up- and down-current of conspecific adults and monitoring their survival and condition over time. We also characterized the spatial distribution of P. damicornis and S. hystrix within replicate plots on three Fijian reef flats and measured the distribution of small colonies within 2 m of larger colonies of each species. Juvenile-sized transplants exhibited no differences in survivorship as a function of distance from adult P. damicornis or S. hystrix. Additionally, both P. damicornis and S. hystrix were aggregated rather than overdispersed on natural reefs. However, a pattern of juveniles being aggregated near adults while larger (and probably older) colonies were not suggests that greater mortality near large adults could occur over longer periods of time or that size-dependent mortality was occurring. While we found minimal evidence of greater mortality of small colonies near adult conspecifics in our transplant experiments, we did document hot-spots of species-specific corallivory. We detected spatially localized and temporally persistent predation on P. damicornis by the territorial triggerfish Balistapus undulatus. This patchy predation did not occur for S. hystrix. This variable selective regime in an otherwise more uniform environment could be one mechanism maintaining diversity of corals on Indo-Pacific reefs. PMID:26623193

  6. Age-specific survival of male golden-cheeked warblers on the Fort Hood Military Reservation, Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Duarte, Adam; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Hatfield, Jeffrey S.; Weckerly, Floyd W.

    2014-01-01

    Population models are essential components of large-scale conservation and management plans for the federally endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia; hereafter GCWA). However, existing models are based on vital rate estimates calculated using relatively small data sets that are now more than a decade old. We estimated more current, precise adult and juvenile apparent survival (Φ) probabilities and their associated variances for male GCWAs. In addition to providing estimates for use in population modeling, we tested hypotheses about spatial and temporal variation in Φ. We assessed whether a linear trend in Φ or a change in the overall mean Φ corresponded to an observed increase in GCWA abundance during 1992-2000 and if Φ varied among study plots. To accomplish these objectives, we analyzed long-term GCWA capture-resight data from 1992 through 2011, collected across seven study plots on the Fort Hood Military Reservation using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model structure within program MARK. We also estimated Φ process and sampling variances using a variance-components approach. Our results did not provide evidence of site-specific variation in adult Φ on the installation. Because of a lack of data, we could not assess whether juvenile Φ varied spatially. We did not detect a strong temporal association between GCWA abundance and Φ. Mean estimates of Φ for adult and juvenile male GCWAs for all years analyzed were 0.47 with a process variance of 0.0120 and a sampling variance of 0.0113 and 0.28 with a process variance of 0.0076 and a sampling variance of 0.0149, respectively. Although juvenile Φ did not differ greatly from previous estimates, our adult Φ estimate suggests previous GCWA population models were overly optimistic with respect to adult survival. These updated Φ probabilities and their associated variances will be incorporated into new population models to assist with GCWA conservation decision making.

  7. Probability for Weather and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  8. On estimating the fracture probability of nuclear graphite components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srinivasan, Makuteswara

    2008-10-01

    The properties of nuclear grade graphites exhibit anisotropy and could vary considerably within a manufactured block. Graphite strength is affected by the direction of alignment of the constituent coke particles, which is dictated by the forming method, coke particle size, and the size, shape, and orientation distribution of pores in the structure. In this paper, a Weibull failure probability analysis for components is presented using the American Society of Testing Materials strength specification for nuclear grade graphites for core components in advanced high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. The risk of rupture (probability of fracture) and survival probability (reliability) of large graphite blocks are calculated for varying and discrete values of service tensile stresses. The limitations in these calculations are discussed from considerations of actual reactor environmental conditions that could potentially degrade the specification properties because of damage due to complex interactions between irradiation, temperature, stress, and variability in reactor operation.

  9. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clausen, Drew R.; Piro, Anthony; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-01-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. Using the observed BH mass distribution from Galactic X-ray binaries, we investigate the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass. Although the shape of the black hole formation probability function is poorly constrained by current measurements, we believe that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. We also consider some of the implications of this probability distribution, from its impact on the chemical enrichment from massive stars, to its connection with the structure of the core at the time of collapse, to the birth kicks that black holes receive. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be a useful input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  10. Trisomy 13 (Patau syndrome) with an 11-year survival.

    PubMed

    Zoll, B; Wolf, J; Lensing-Hebben, D; Pruggmayer, M; Thorpe, B

    1993-01-01

    Trisomy 13 is very rare in live-born children. Only a small number of these children survive the first year and very few cases are reported to live longer. Survival time depends partly on the cytogenetic findings--full trisomy 13 or trisomy 13 mosaicism--and partly on the existence of serious somatic malformations. We report on a 11-year-old girl with full trisomy 13. In this case, missing cerebral and cardiovascular malformations probably allowed the long survival.

  11. The role of HLA-matched unrelated transplantation in adult patients with Ph chromosome-negative ALL in first remission. A decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Kako, S; Morita, S; Sakamaki, H; Iida, H; Kurokawa, M; Miyamura, K; Kanamori, H; Hara, M; Kobayashi, N; Morishima, Y; Kawa, K; Kyo, T; Sakura, T; Jinnai, I; Takeuchi, J; Miyazaki, Y; Miyawaki, S; Ohnishi, K; Naoe, T; Kanda, Y

    2013-08-01

    The efficacy of unrelated transplantation for patients with ALL who lack an HLA-matched sibling remains unclear. We performed a decision analysis to determine the efficacy of myeloablative transplantation from a genetically HLA-A, -B, -DRB1 allele-matched unrelated donor for patients with Ph chromosome-negative ALL aged 21-54 years. The transition probabilities were estimated from the Japan Adult Leukemia Study Group studies (ALL93; n=80, ALL97; n=82), and the Japan Marrow Donor Program database (transplantation in first CR (CR1): n=177). The primary outcome measure was the 10-year survival probability with or without quality of life (QOL) adjustment. Subgroup analyses were performed according to risk stratification based on the WBC count and cytogenetics, and according to age stratification. In all patients, unrelated transplantation in CR1 was shown to be superior in analyses both with and without QOL adjustment (40.8 vs 28.4% and 43.9 vs 29.0%, respectively). A similar tendency was observed in all subgroups. The decision model was sensitive to the probability of leukemia-free survival following chemotherapy and the probability of survival after transplantation in standard-risk and higher-aged patients. Unrelated transplantation in CR1 improves the long-term survival probability in patients who lack an HLA-matched sibling. However, recent improvements in treatment strategies may change this result.

  12. Survival and complications in thalassemia.

    PubMed

    Borgna-Pignatti, C; Cappellini, M D; De Stefano, P; Del Vecchio, G C; Forni, G L; Gamberini, M R; Ghilardi, R; Origa, R; Piga, A; Romeo, M A; Zhao, H; Cnaan, A

    2005-01-01

    The life expectancy of patients with thalassemia major has significantly increased in recent years, as reported by several groups in different countries. However, complications are still frequent and affect the patients' quality of life. In a recent study from the United Kingdom, it was found that 50% of the patients had died before age 35. At that age, 65% of the patients from an Italian long-term study were still alive. Heart disease is responsible for more than half of the deaths. The prevalence of complications in Italian patients born after 1970 includes heart failure in 7%, hypogonadism in 55%, hypothyroidism in 11%, and diabetes in 6%. Similar data were reported in patients from the United States. In the Italian study, lower ferritin levels were associated with a lower probability of experiencing heart failure and with prolonged survival. Osteoporosis and osteopenia are common and affect virtually all patients. Hepatitis C virus antibodies are present in 85% of multitransfused Italian patients, 23% of patients in the United Kingdom, 35% in the United States, 34% in France, and 21% in India. Hepatocellular carcinoma can complicate the course of hepatitis. A survey of Italian centers has identified 23 such cases in patients with a thalassemia syndrome. In conclusion, rates of survival and complication-free survival continue to improve, due to better treatment strategies. New complications are appearing in long-term survivors. Iron overload of the heart remains the main cause of morbidity and mortality.

  13. Surviving Atmospheric Spacecraft Breakup

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Szewczyk, Nathaniel J.; Conley, Catharine A.

    2003-01-01

    In essence, to survival a spacecraft breakup an animal must not experience a lethal event. Much as with surviving aircraft breakup, dissipation of lethal forces via breakup of the craft around the organism is likely to greatly increase the odds of survival. As spacecraft can travel higher and faster than aircraft, it is often assumed that spacecraft breakup is not a survivable event. Similarly, the belief that aircraft breakup or crashes are not survivable events is still prevalent in the general population. As those of us involved in search and rescue know, it is possible to survive both aircraft breakup and crashes. Here we make the first report of an animal, C. elegans, surviving atmospheric breakup of the spacecraft supporting it and discuss both the lethal events these animals had to escape and the implications implied for search and rescue following spacecraft breakup.

  14. Lectures on probability and statistics

    SciTech Connect

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another.

  15. Modality, probability, and mental models.

    PubMed

    Hinterecker, Thomas; Knauff, Markus; Johnson-Laird, P N

    2016-10-01

    We report 3 experiments investigating novel sorts of inference, such as: A or B or both. Therefore, possibly (A and B). Where the contents were sensible assertions, for example, Space tourism will achieve widespread popularity in the next 50 years or advances in material science will lead to the development of antigravity materials in the next 50 years, or both. Most participants accepted the inferences as valid, though they are invalid in modal logic and in probabilistic logic too. But, the theory of mental models predicts that individuals should accept them. In contrast, inferences of this sort—A or B but not both. Therefore, A or B or both—are both logically valid and probabilistically valid. Yet, as the model theory also predicts, most reasoners rejected them. The participants’ estimates of probabilities showed that their inferences tended not to be based on probabilistic validity, but that they did rate acceptable conclusions as more probable than unacceptable conclusions. We discuss the implications of the results for current theories of reasoning.

  16. Quality of life-adjusted survival analysis of high-dose therapy with autologous bone marrow transplantation versus sequential chemotherapy for patients with aggressive lymphoma in first complete remission. Groupe d'Etude les Lymphomes de l'Adulte (GELA).

    PubMed

    Mounier, N; Haioun, C; Cole, B F; Gisselbrecht, C; Sebban, C; Morel, P; Marit, G; Bouabdallah, R; Ravoet, C; Salles, G; Reyes, F; Lepage, E

    2000-06-15

    Evaluating high-dose therapy (HDT) with autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) in term of both duration and quality of life (QOL) presents major interests for patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The quality-adjusted time without symptom and toxicity (Q-TWiST) methodology was applied to the LNH87-2 trial comparing HDT with ASCT versus sequential chemotherapy in 541 patients in first complete remission (CR). Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) curves were used to estimate duration of 4 health states: acute short-term toxicity (Tox1), secondary toxicity (Tox2), time without symptom and toxicity (TWiST), and relapse (Rel). Areas under survival curves (AUC) were retrospectively weighted according to QOL coefficients. HDT increased, but not significantly, TWiST (+2. 4 months in AUC, P =.17) and decreased Rel (-3 months, P <.01). Survival estimates did not differ between the 2 treatments (AUC 47.7 months for OS, 39.7 months for DFS). High-risk patients treated by HDT versus chemotherapy had a significant benefit in DFS (AUC 28.8 versus 24.9 months, P <.01) but not in OS (AUC 37.3 versus 36 months, P =.27). Sensitivity analysis, performed by varying QOL coefficients, demonstrated significant quality-adjusted survival gain in high-risk patients treated by HDT. In low-risk patients, a diagram provided an aid to clinical decision-making. This analysis supports the use of HDT in these patients with adverse prognostic factors in the first CR, even after adjusting for QOL using the Q-TWiST method. (Blood. 2000;95:3687-3692)

  17. Neyman, Markov processes and survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Yang, Grace

    2013-07-01

    J. Neyman used stochastic processes extensively in his applied work. One example is the Fix and Neyman (F-N) competing risks model (1951) that uses finite homogeneous Markov processes to analyse clinical trials with breast cancer patients. We revisit the F-N model, and compare it with the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) formulation for right censored data. The comparison offers a way to generalize the K-M formulation to include risks of recovery and relapses in the calculation of a patient's survival probability. The generalization is to extend the F-N model to a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Closed-form solutions of the survival probability are available in special cases of the nonhomogeneous processes, like the popular multiple decrement model (including the K-M model) and Chiang's staging model, but these models do not consider recovery and relapses while the F-N model does. An analysis of sero-epidemiology current status data with recurrent events is illustrated. Fix and Neyman used Neyman's RBAN (regular best asymptotic normal) estimates for the risks, and provided a numerical example showing the importance of considering both the survival probability and the length of time of a patient living a normal life in the evaluation of clinical trials. The said extension would result in a complicated model and it is unlikely to find analytical closed-form solutions for survival analysis. With ever increasing computing power, numerical methods offer a viable way of investigating the problem.

  18. Functional Status, Time to Transplantation, and Survival Benefit of Kidney Transplantation Among Wait-Listed Candidates

    PubMed Central

    Reese, Peter P.; Shults, Justine; Bloom, Roy D.; Mussell, Adam; Harhay, Meera N.; Abt, Peter; Levine, Matthew; Johansen, Kirsten L.; Karlawish, Jason T.; Feldman, Harold I.

    2015-01-01

    Background In the context of an aging end-stage renal disease population with multiple comorbidities, transplantation professionals face challenges in evaluating the global health of patients awaiting kidney transplantation. Functional status might be useful for identifying which patients will derive a survival benefit from transplantation versus dialysis. Study Design Retrospective cohort study of wait-listed patients using data on functional status from a national dialysis provider linked to United Network for Organ Sharing registry data. Setting & Participants Adult kidney transplant candidates added to the waiting list between the years 2000 and 2006. Predictor Physical function scale of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form Healthy Survey, analyzed as a time-varying covariate. Outcomes Kidney transplantation; Survival benefit of transplantation versus remaining wait-listed. Measurements We used multivariable Cox regression to assess the association between physical function with study outcomes. In survival benefit analyses, transplant status was modeled as a time-varying covariate. Results The cohort comprised 19,242 kidney transplant candidates (median age, 51 years; 36% black race) receiving maintenance dialysis. Candidates in the lowest baseline physical function quartile were more likely to be inactivated (adjusted HR vs. highest quartile, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.21-1.39) and less likely to undergo transplantation (adjusted HR vs. highest quartile, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.61-0.68). After transplantation, worse physical function was associated with shorter 3-year survival (84% vs. 92% for the lowest vs. highest function quartiles). However, compared to dialysis, transplantation was associated with a statistically significant survival benefit by 9 months for patients in every function quartile. Limitations Functional status is self-reported. Conclusions Even patients with low function appear to live longer with kidney transplantation versus dialysis. For waitlisted

  19. Synergistic interactions within disturbed habitats between temperature, relative humidity and UVB radiation on egg survival in a diadromous fish.

    PubMed

    Hickford, Michael J H; Schiel, David R

    2011-01-01

    Anthropogenic impacts, including urbanization, deforestation, farming, and livestock grazing have altered riparian margins worldwide. One effect of changes to riparian vegetation is that the ground-level light, temperature, and humidity environment has also been altered. Galaxias maculatus, one of the most widely distributed fishes of the southern hemisphere, lays eggs almost exclusively beneath riparian vegetation in tidally influenced reaches of rivers. We hypothesized that the survival of these eggs is greatly affected by the micro-environment afforded by vegetation, particularly relating to temperature, humidity and UVB radiation. We experimentally reduced riparian vegetation height and altered shading characteristics, tracked egg survival, and used small ground-level temperature, humidity and UVB sensors to relate survival to ground-level effects around egg masses. The ground-level physical environment was markedly different from the surrounding ambient conditions. Tall dense riparian vegetation modified ambient conditions to produce a buffered temperature regime with constant high relative humidity, generally above 90%, and negligible UVB radiation at ground-level. Where vegetation height was reduced, frequent high temperatures, low humidity, and high UVB irradiances reduced egg survival by up to 95%. Temperature effects on egg survival were probably indirect, through reduced humidity, because developing eggs are known to survive in a wide range of temperatures. In this study, it was remarkable how such small variations in relatively small sites could have such a large effect on egg survival. It appears that modifications to riparian vegetation and the associated changes in the physical conditions of egg laying sites are major mechanisms affecting egg survival. The impacts associated with vegetational changes through human-induced disturbances are complex yet potentially devastating. These effects are particularly important because they affect a very small

  20. A Survival Kit for Teaching English to Refugees. TECHNIQUES.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Overbeck, Carla

    1984-01-01

    Adult basic education and English as a second language teachers, as well as volunteer tutors, can help new refugees acquire functional English through the use of a survival kit. The Literacy Volunteers of America's guide to teaching conversational English recommends these items for a survival kit: a written copy of student's name, address, and…

  1. MSPI False Indication Probability Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Dana Kelly; Kurt Vedros; Robert Youngblood

    2011-03-01

    This paper examines false indication probabilities in the context of the Mitigating System Performance Index (MSPI), in order to investigate the pros and cons of different approaches to resolving two coupled issues: (1) sensitivity to the prior distribution used in calculating the Bayesian-corrected unreliability contribution to the MSPI, and (2) whether (in a particular plant configuration) to model the fuel oil transfer pump (FOTP) as a separate component, or integrally to its emergency diesel generator (EDG). False indication probabilities were calculate