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Sample records for adult survival probability

  1. Estimates of annual survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, C.A.; O'Shea, T.J.; Pradel, R.; Beck, C.A.

    1998-01-01

    The population dynamics of large, long-lived mammals are particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Understanding factors affecting survival patterns is therefore critical for developing and testing theories of population dynamics and for developing management strategies aimed at preventing declines or extinction in such taxa. Few studies have used modern analytical approaches for analyzing variation and testing hypotheses about survival probabilities in large mammals. This paper reports a detailed analysis of annual adult survival in the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), an endangered marine mammal, based on a mark-recapture approach. Natural and boat-inflicted scars distinctively 'marked' individual manatees that were cataloged in a computer-based photographic system. Photo-documented resightings provided 'recaptures.' Using open population models, annual adult-survival probabilities were estimated for manatees observed in winter in three areas of Florida: Blue Spring, Crystal River, and the Atlantic coast. After using goodness-of-fit tests in Program RELEASE to search for violations of the assumptions of mark-recapture analysis, survival and sighting probabilities were modeled under several different biological hypotheses with Program SURGE. Estimates of mean annual probability of sighting varied from 0.948 for Blue Spring to 0.737 for Crystal River and 0.507 for the Atlantic coast. At Crystal River and Blue Spring, annual survival probabilities were best estimated as constant over the study period at 0.96 (95% CI = 0.951-0.975 and 0.900-0.985, respectively). On the Atlantic coast, where manatees are impacted more by human activities, annual survival probabilities had a significantly lower mean estimate of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.887-0.926) and varied unpredictably over the study period. For each study area, survival did not differ between sexes and was independent of relative adult age. The high constant adult-survival probabilities estimated

  2. Lower survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees in years with intense coastal storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.

    2003-01-01

    The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) inhabits the subtropical waters of the southeastern United States, where hurricanes are a regular occurrence. Using mark-resighting statistical models, we analyzed 19 years of photo-identification data and detected significant annual variation in adult survival for a subpopulation in northwest Florida where human impact is low. That variation coincided with years when intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and a major winter storm occurred in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean survival probability during years with no or low intensity storms was 0.972 (approximate 95% confidence interval = 0.961-0.980) but dropped to 0.936 (0.864-0.971) in 1985 with Hurricanes Elena, Kate, and Juan; to 0.909 (0.837-0.951) in 1993 with the March "Storm of the Century"; and to 0.817 (0.735-0.878) in 1995 with Hurricanes Opal, Erin, and Allison. These drops in survival probability were not catastrophic in magnitude and were detected because of the use of state-of-the-art statistical techniques and the quality of the data. Because individuals of this small population range extensively along the north Gulf coast of Florida, it was possible to resolve storm effects on a regional scale rather than the site-specific local scale common to studies of more sedentary species. This is the first empirical evidence in support of storm effects on manatee survival and suggests a cause-effect relationship. The decreases in survival could be due to direct mortality, indirect mortality, and/or emigration from the region as a consequence of storms. Future impacts to the population by a single catastrophic hurricane, or series of smaller hurricanes, could increase the probability of extinction. With the advent in 1995 of a new 25- to 50-yr cycle of greater hurricane activity, and longer term change possible with global climate change, it becomes all the more important to reduce mortality and injury

  3. Survival probability in patients with liver trauma.

    PubMed

    Buci, Skender; Kukeli, Agim

    2016-08-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to assess the survival probability among patients with liver trauma injury using the anatomical and psychological scores of conditions, characteristics and treatment modes. Design/methodology/approach - A logistic model is used to estimate 173 patients' survival probability. Data are taken from patient records. Only emergency room patients admitted to University Hospital of Trauma (former Military Hospital) in Tirana are included. Data are recorded anonymously, preserving the patients' privacy. Findings - When correctly predicted, the logistic models show that survival probability varies from 70.5 percent up to 95.4 percent. The degree of trauma injury, trauma with liver and other organs, total days the patient was hospitalized, and treatment method (conservative vs intervention) are statistically important in explaining survival probability. Practical implications - The study gives patients, their relatives and physicians ample and sound information they can use to predict survival chances, the best treatment and resource management. Originality/value - This study, which has not been done previously, explores survival probability, success probability for conservative and non-conservative treatment, and success probability for single vs multiple injuries from liver trauma.

  4. Survival probability in patients with liver trauma.

    PubMed

    Buci, Skender; Kukeli, Agim

    2016-08-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to assess the survival probability among patients with liver trauma injury using the anatomical and psychological scores of conditions, characteristics and treatment modes. Design/methodology/approach - A logistic model is used to estimate 173 patients' survival probability. Data are taken from patient records. Only emergency room patients admitted to University Hospital of Trauma (former Military Hospital) in Tirana are included. Data are recorded anonymously, preserving the patients' privacy. Findings - When correctly predicted, the logistic models show that survival probability varies from 70.5 percent up to 95.4 percent. The degree of trauma injury, trauma with liver and other organs, total days the patient was hospitalized, and treatment method (conservative vs intervention) are statistically important in explaining survival probability. Practical implications - The study gives patients, their relatives and physicians ample and sound information they can use to predict survival chances, the best treatment and resource management. Originality/value - This study, which has not been done previously, explores survival probability, success probability for conservative and non-conservative treatment, and success probability for single vs multiple injuries from liver trauma. PMID:27477933

  5. Survival probability for the stadium billiard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dettmann, Carl P.; Georgiou, Orestis

    2009-12-01

    We consider the open stadium billiard, consisting of two semicircles joined by parallel straight sides with one hole situated somewhere on one of the sides. Due to the hyperbolic nature of the stadium billiard, the initial decay of trajectories, due to loss through the hole, appears exponential. However, some trajectories (bouncing ball orbits) persist and survive for long times and therefore form the main contribution to the survival probability function at long times. Using both numerical and analytical methods, we concur with previous studies that the long-time survival probability for a reasonably small hole drops like Constant×(; here we obtain an explicit expression for the Constant.

  6. Robust satisficing and the probability of survival

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2014-01-01

    Concepts of robustness are sometimes employed when decisions under uncertainty are made without probabilistic information. We present a theorem that establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for non-probabilistic robustness to be equivalent to the probability of satisfying the specified outcome requirements. When this holds, probability is enhanced (or maximised) by enhancing (or maximising) robustness. Two further theorems establish important special cases. These theorems have implications for success or survival under uncertainty. Applications to foraging and finance are discussed.

  7. Bacteria survival probability in bactericidal filter paper.

    PubMed

    Mansur-Azzam, Nura; Hosseinidoust, Zeinab; Woo, Su Gyeong; Vyhnalkova, Renata; Eisenberg, Adi; van de Ven, Theo G M

    2014-05-01

    Bactericidal filter papers offer the simplicity of gravity filtration to simultaneously eradicate microbial contaminants and particulates. We previously detailed the development of biocidal block copolymer micelles that could be immobilized on a filter paper to actively eradicate bacteria. Despite the many advantages offered by this system, its widespread use is hindered by its unknown mechanism of action which can result in non-reproducible outcomes. In this work, we sought to investigate the mechanism by which a certain percentage of Escherichia coli cells survived when passing through the bactericidal filter paper. Through the process of elimination, the possibility that the bacterial survival probability was controlled by the initial bacterial load or the existence of resistant sub-populations of E. coli was dismissed. It was observed that increasing the thickness or the number of layers of the filter significantly decreased bacterial survival probability for the biocidal filter paper but did not affect the efficiency of the blank filter paper (no biocide). The survival probability of bacteria passing through the antibacterial filter paper appeared to depend strongly on the number of collision between each bacterium and the biocide-loaded micelles. It was thus hypothesized that during each collision a certain number of biocide molecules were directly transferred from the hydrophobic core of the micelle to the bacterial lipid bilayer membrane. Therefore, each bacterium must encounter a certain number of collisions to take up enough biocide to kill the cell and cells that do not undergo the threshold number of collisions are expected to survive.

  8. Adult Survival Skills Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walsko, Gregory M.

    The purpose of this instrument is to supplement data from the Adult Basic Learning Examination in assessing the functional level of adults in daily situations. It may also be used as a teaching tool for adults requesting tutoring in specific concepts and skills presented in the instrument. This instrument is an informal assessment instrument and…

  9. Conditional Probability of Survival in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Polley, Mei-Yin C.; Lamborn, Kathleen R.; Chang, Susan M.; Butowski, Nicholas; Clarke, Jennifer L.; Prados, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The disease outcome for patients with cancer is typically described in terms of estimated survival from diagnosis. Conditional probability offers more relevant information regarding survival for patients once they have survived for some time. We report conditional survival probabilities on the basis of 498 patients with glioblastoma multiforme receiving radiation and chemotherapy. For 1-year survivors, we evaluated variables that may inform subsequent survival. Motivated by the trend in data, we also evaluated the assumption of constant hazard. Patients and Methods Patients enrolled onto seven phase II protocols between 1975 and 2007 were included. Conditional survival probabilities and 95% CIs were calculated. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate prognostic values of age, Karnofsky performance score (KPS), and prior progression 1-year post diagnosis. To assess the constant hazard assumption, we used a likelihood-ratio test to compare the Weibull and exponential distributions. Results The probabilities of surviving an additional year given survival to 1, 2, 3, and 4 years were 35%, 49%, 69%, and 93%, respectively. For patients who survived for 1 year, lower KPS and progression were significantly predictive of shorter survival (both P < .001), but age was not (hazard ratio, 1.22 for a 10-year increase; P = .25). The Weibull distribution fits the data significantly better than exponential (P = .02), suggesting nonconstant hazard. Conclusion Conditional probabilities provide encouraging information regarding life expectancy to survivors of glioblastoma multiforme. Our data also showed that the constant hazard assumption may be violated in modern brain tumor trials. For single-arm trials, we advise using individual patient data from historical data sets for efficacy comparisons. PMID:21969507

  10. Differential Survival in Europe and the United States: Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival

    PubMed Central

    Delavande, Adeline; Rohwedder, Susann

    2013-01-01

    Cross-country comparisons of differential survival by socioeconomic status (SES) are useful in many domains. Yet, to date, such studies have been rare. Reliably estimating differential survival in a single country has been challenging because it requires rich panel data with a large sample size. Cross-country estimates have proven even more difficult because the measures of SES need to be comparable internationally. We present an alternative method for acquiring information on differential survival by SES. Rather than using observations of actual survival, we relate individuals’ subjective probabilities of survival to SES variables in cross section. To show that subjective survival probabilities are informative proxies for actual survival when estimating differential survival, we compare estimates of differential survival based on actual survival with estimates based on subjective probabilities of survival for the same sample. The results are remarkably similar. We then use this approach to compare differential survival by SES for 10 European countries and the United States. Wealthier people have higher survival probabilities than those who are less wealthy, but the strength of the association differs across countries. Nations with a smaller gradient appear to be Belgium, France, and Italy, while the United States, England, and Sweden appear to have a larger gradient. PMID:22042664

  11. Estimating survival rates from banding of adult and juvenile birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1974-01-01

    The restrictive assumptions required by most available methods for estimating survival probabilities render them unsuitable for analyzing real banding data. A model is proposed which allows survival rates and recovery rates to vary with the calendar year, and also allows juveniles to have rates different from adults. In addition to survival rates and recovery rates, the differential vulnerability factors of juveniles relative to adults are estimated. Minimum values of the variances of the estimators are also given. The new procedure is applied to sets of duck and goose data in which reasonably large numbers of adult and juvenile birds were banded. The results are shown to be generally comparable to those procured by other methods, but, in addition, insight into the extent of annual variation is gained. Combining data from adults and juveniles also increases the effective sample size, since the juveniles are assumed to enter the adult age class after surviving their initial year.

  12. Survival probability of beneficial mutations in bacterial batch culture.

    PubMed

    Wahl, Lindi M; Zhu, Anna Dai

    2015-05-01

    The survival of rare beneficial mutations can be extremely sensitive to the organism's life history and the trait affected by the mutation. Given the tremendous impact of bacteria in batch culture as a model system for the study of adaptation, it is important to understand the survival probability of beneficial mutations in these populations. Here we develop a life-history model for bacterial populations in batch culture and predict the survival of mutations that increase fitness through their effects on specific traits: lag time, fission time, viability, and the timing of stationary phase. We find that if beneficial mutations are present in the founding population at the beginning of culture growth, mutations that reduce the mortality of daughter cells are the most likely to survive drift. In contrast, of mutations that occur de novo during growth, those that delay the onset of stationary phase are the most likely to survive. Our model predicts that approximately fivefold population growth between bottlenecks will optimize the occurrence and survival of beneficial mutations of all four types. This prediction is relatively insensitive to other model parameters, such as the lag time, fission time, or mortality rate of the population. We further estimate that bottlenecks that are more severe than this optimal prediction substantially reduce the occurrence and survival of adaptive mutations.

  13. Declining survival probability threatens the North Atlantic right whale.

    PubMed

    Caswell, H; Fujiwara, M; Brault, S

    1999-03-16

    The North Atlantic northern right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) is considered the most endangered large whale species. Its population has recovered only slowly since the cessation of commercial whaling and numbers about 300 individuals. We applied mark-recapture statistics to a catalog of photographically identified individuals to obtain the first statistically rigorous estimates of survival probability for this population. Crude survival decreased from about 0.99 per year in 1980 to about 0.94 in 1994. We combined this survival trend with a reported decrease in reproductive rate into a branching process model to compute population growth rate and extinction probability. Population growth rate declined from about 1. 053 in 1980 to about 0.976 in 1994. Under current conditions the population is doomed to extinction; an upper bound on the expected time to extinction is 191 years. The most effective way to improve the prospects of the population is to reduce mortality. The right whale is at risk from entanglement in fishing gear and from collisions with ships. Reducing this human-caused mortality is essential to the viability of this population. PMID:10077680

  14. Seasonal Survival Probabilities Suggest Low Migration Mortality in Migrating Bats

    PubMed Central

    Giavi, Simone; Moretti, Marco; Bontadina, Fabio; Zambelli, Nicola; Schaub, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Migration is adaptive if survival benefits are larger than costs of residency. Many aspects of bat migration ecology such as migratory costs, stopover site use and fidelity are largely unknown. Since many migrating bats are endangered, such information is urgently needed to promote conservation. We selected the migrating Leisler's bat (Nyctalus leisleri) as model species and collected capture-recapture data in southern Switzerland year round during 6 years. We estimated seasonal survival and site fidelity with Cormack-Jolly-Seber models that accounted for the presence of transients fitted with Bayesian methods and assessed differences between sexes and seasons. Activity peaked in autumn and spring, whereas very few individuals were caught during summer. We hypothesize that the study site is a migratory stopover site used during fall and spring migration for most individuals, but there is also evidence for wintering. Additionally, we found strong clues for mating during fall. Summer survival that included two major migratory journeys was identical to winter survival in males and slightly higher in females, suggesting that the migratory journeys did not bear significant costs in terms of survival. Transience probability was in both seasons higher in males than in females. Our results suggest that, similarly to birds, Leisler's bat also use stopover sites during migration with high site fidelity. In contrast to most birds, the stopover site was also used for mating and migratory costs in terms of survival seemed to be low. Transients' analyses highlighted strong individual variation in site use which makes particularly challenging the study and modelling of their populations as well as their conservation. PMID:24454906

  15. Seasonal survival probabilities suggest low migration mortality in migrating bats.

    PubMed

    Giavi, Simone; Moretti, Marco; Bontadina, Fabio; Zambelli, Nicola; Schaub, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Migration is adaptive if survival benefits are larger than costs of residency. Many aspects of bat migration ecology such as migratory costs, stopover site use and fidelity are largely unknown. Since many migrating bats are endangered, such information is urgently needed to promote conservation. We selected the migrating Leisler's bat (Nyctalus leisleri) as model species and collected capture-recapture data in southern Switzerland year round during 6 years. We estimated seasonal survival and site fidelity with Cormack-Jolly-Seber models that accounted for the presence of transients fitted with Bayesian methods and assessed differences between sexes and seasons. Activity peaked in autumn and spring, whereas very few individuals were caught during summer. We hypothesize that the study site is a migratory stopover site used during fall and spring migration for most individuals, but there is also evidence for wintering. Additionally, we found strong clues for mating during fall. Summer survival that included two major migratory journeys was identical to winter survival in males and slightly higher in females, suggesting that the migratory journeys did not bear significant costs in terms of survival. Transience probability was in both seasons higher in males than in females. Our results suggest that, similarly to birds, Leisler's bat also use stopover sites during migration with high site fidelity. In contrast to most birds, the stopover site was also used for mating and migratory costs in terms of survival seemed to be low. Transients' analyses highlighted strong individual variation in site use which makes particularly challenging the study and modelling of their populations as well as their conservation.

  16. Probability of moraine survival in a succession of glacial advances.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gibbons, A.B.; Megeath, J.D.; Pierce, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    Emplacement of glacial moraines normally results in obliteration of older moraines deposited by less extensive glacial advances, a process we call 'obliterative overlap'. Assuming randomness and obliterative overlap, after 10 glacial episodes the most likely number of surviving moraines is only three. The record of the Pleistocene is in agreement with the probability analysis: the 10 glaciations during the past 0.9 Myr inferred from the deep-sea record resulted in moraine sequences in which only two or three different-aged moraine belts can generally be distinguished. -from Authors

  17. Survival Probabilities in Coherent Exciton Transfer with Trapping

    SciTech Connect

    Muelken, Oliver; Blumen, Alexander; Amthor, Thomas; Giese, Christian; Reetz-Lamour, Markus; Weidemueller, Matthias

    2007-08-31

    In the quest for signatures of coherent transport we consider exciton trapping in the continuous-time quantum walk framework. The survival probability displays different decay domains, related to distinct regions of the spectrum of the Hamiltonian. For linear systems and at intermediate times the decay obeys a power law, in contrast with the corresponding exponential decay found in incoherent continuous-time random walk situations. To differentiate between the coherent and incoherent mechanisms, we present an experimental protocol based on a frozen Rydberg gas structured by optical dipole traps.

  18. Annual survival rates of breeding adult roseate terns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.

    1989-01-01

    Analyses of the capture-recapture data on 0 individual roseate terns (Sterna dougallii) trapped from 1978-1987 as breeding adults on nests on Falkner Island, Connecticut, estimate the average annual minimum adult survival rate to be 0.74-0.75. There was weak evidence of year-to-year variation in annual survival rates during the study period. The Jolly-Seber models used to estimate survival rates also generated estimates of population size and capture probabilities. To determine the relative importance of adult mortality and permanent emigration in contribuuting to the estimated annual loss of one-fourth of the breeding population will require further study of intercolony movemnet between all the major colony cities.

  19. Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Saracco, James F.; Royle, J. Andrew; DeSante, David F.; Gardner, Beth

    2010-01-01

    The importance of understanding spatial variation in processes driving animal population dynamics is widely recognized. Yet little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of vital rates. Here we describe a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to provide spatially explicit year-specific estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities from capture-recapture data. We apply the model to data collected on a declining bird species, Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), as part of a broad-scale bird-banding network, the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. The Wood Thrush analysis showed variability in both phi and pi among years and across space. Spatial heterogeneity in residency probability was particularly striking, suggesting the importance of understanding the role of transients in local populations. We found broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi that lend insight into population trends and can direct conservation and research. The spatial model developed here represents a significant advance over approaches to investigating spatial pattern in vital rates that aggregate data at coarse spatial scales and do not explicitly incorporate spatial information in the model. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models offers the opportunity to more fully investigate spatiotemporal variation in the processes that drive population changes.

  20. Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

    2010-01-01

    Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

  1. Estimating survival and breeding probability for pond-breeding amphibians: a modified robust design

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, L.L.; Kendall, W.L.; Church, D.R.; Wilbur, H.M.

    2004-01-01

    Many studies of pond-breeding amphibians involve sampling individuals during migration to and from breeding habitats. Interpreting population processes and dynamics from these studies is difficult because (1) only a proportion of the population is observable each season, while an unknown proportion remains unobservable (e.g., non-breeding adults) and (2) not all observable animals are captured. Imperfect capture probability can be easily accommodated in capture?recapture models, but temporary transitions between observable and unobservable states, often referred to as temporary emigration, is known to cause problems in both open- and closed-population models. We develop a multistate mark?recapture (MSMR) model, using an open-robust design that permits one entry and one exit from the study area per season. Our method extends previous temporary emigration models (MSMR with an unobservable state) in two ways. First, we relax the assumption of demographic closure (no mortality) between consecutive (secondary) samples, allowing estimation of within-pond survival. Also, we add the flexibility to express survival probability of unobservable individuals (e.g., ?non-breeders?) as a function of the survival probability of observable animals while in the same, terrestrial habitat. This allows for potentially different annual survival probabilities for observable and unobservable animals. We apply our model to a relictual population of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum). Despite small sample sizes, demographic parameters were estimated with reasonable precision. We tested several a priori biological hypotheses and found evidence for seasonal differences in pond survival. Our methods could be applied to a variety of pond-breeding species and other taxa where individuals are captured entering or exiting a common area (e.g., spawning or roosting area, hibernacula).

  2. Survival probability for a diffusive process on a growing domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simpson, Matthew J.; Sharp, Jesse A.; Baker, Ruth E.

    2015-04-01

    We consider the motion of a diffusive population on a growing domain, 0 survival probability, S (t ) , and an accurate approximation for the long-time limit, S =limt→∞S (t ) . Unlike traditional analyses on a nongrowing domain, where S ≡0 , we show that domain growth leads to a very different situation where S can be positive. The theoretical tools developed and validated in this study allow us to distinguish between situations where the diffusive population reaches the moving boundary at x =L (t ) from other situations where the diffusive population never reaches the moving boundary at x =L (t ) . Making this distinction is relevant to certain applications in developmental biology, such as the development of the enteric nervous system (ENS). All theoretical predictions are verified by implementing a discrete stochastic model.

  3. Basic & Survival Consumer Economics for Adult Refugees.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carlston, Peter G.

    Prepared to help teachers address the basic and survival level consumer needs of adult Vietnamese and Laotian refugees, this instructional guide consists of five units of instructional materials. Topics of the individual units are (1) how the monetary system works (cash, checks, postal money orders, banking); (2) the family consumer (personal and…

  4. Kernel mixture survival models for identifying cancer subtypes, predicting patient's cancer types and survival probabilities.

    PubMed

    Ando, Tomohiro; Imoto, Seiya; Miyano, Satoru

    2004-01-01

    One important application of microarray gene expression data is to study the relationship between the clinical phenotype of cancer patients and gene expression profiles on the whole-genome scale. The clinical phenotype includes several different types of cancers, survival times, relapse times, drug responses and so on. Under the situation that the subtypes of cancer have not been previously identified or known to exist, we develop a new kernel mixture modeling method that performs simultaneously identification of the subtype of cancer, prediction of the probabilities of both cancer type and patient's survival, and detection of a set of marker genes on which to base a diagnosis. The proposed method is successfully performed on real data analysis and simulation studies.

  5. Mean exit time and survival probability within the CTRW formalism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montero, M.; Masoliver, J.

    2007-05-01

    An intense research on financial market microstructure is presently in progress. Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are general models capable to capture the small-scale properties that high frequency data series show. The use of CTRW models in the analysis of financial problems is quite recent and their potentials have not been fully developed. Here we present two (closely related) applications of great interest in risk control. In the first place, we will review the problem of modelling the behaviour of the mean exit time (MET) of a process out of a given region of fixed size. The surveyed stochastic processes are the cumulative returns of asset prices. The link between the value of the MET and the timescale of the market fluctuations of a certain degree is crystal clear. In this sense, MET value may help, for instance, in deciding the optimal time horizon for the investment. The MET is, however, one among the statistics of a distribution of bigger interest: the survival probability (SP), the likelihood that after some lapse of time a process remains inside the given region without having crossed its boundaries. The final part of the manuscript is devoted to the study of this quantity. Note that the use of SPs may outperform the standard “Value at Risk" (VaR) method for two reasons: we can consider other market dynamics than the limited Wiener process and, even in this case, a risk level derived from the SP will ensure (within the desired quintile) that the quoted value of the portfolio will not leave the safety zone. We present some preliminary theoretical and applied results concerning this topic.

  6. Adolescent and Young Adult Cancer Survival

    PubMed Central

    Seibel, Nita L.; Smith, Ashley Wilder; Stedman, Margaret R.

    2014-01-01

    Adolescent and young adults (AYAs) face challenges in having their cancers recognized, diagnosed, treated, and monitored. Monitoring AYA cancer survival is of interest because of the lack of improvement in outcome previously documented for these patients as compared with younger and older patient outcomes. AYA patients 15–39 years old, diagnosed during 2000–2008 with malignant cancers were selected from the SEER 17 registries data. Selected cancers were analyzed for incidence and five-year relative survival by histology, stage, and receptor subtypes. Hazard ratios were estimated for cancer death risk among younger and older ages relative to the AYA group. AYA survival was worse for female breast cancer (regardless of estrogen receptor status), acute lymphoid leukemia (ALL), and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). AYA survival for AML was lowest for a subtype associated with a mutation of the nucleophosmin 1 gene (NPM1). AYA survival for breast cancer and leukemia remain poor as compared with younger and older survivors. Research is needed to address disparities and improve survival in this age group. PMID:25417236

  7. Model and test in a fungus of the probability that beneficial mutations survive drift.

    PubMed

    Gifford, Danna R; de Visser, J Arjan G M; Wahl, Lindi M

    2013-02-23

    Determining the probability of fixation of beneficial mutations is critically important for building predictive models of adaptive evolution. Despite considerable theoretical work, models of fixation probability have stood untested for nearly a century. However, recent advances in experimental and theoretical techniques permit the development of models with testable predictions. We developed a new model for the probability of surviving genetic drift, a major component of fixation probability, for novel beneficial mutations in the fungus Aspergillus nidulans, based on the life-history characteristics of its colony growth on a solid surface. We tested the model by measuring the probability of surviving drift in 11 adapted strains introduced into wild-type populations of different densities. We found that the probability of surviving drift increased with mutant invasion fitness, and decreased with wild-type density, as expected. The model accurately predicted the survival probability for the majority of mutants, yielding one of the first direct tests of the extinction probability of beneficial mutations.

  8. The Effect of Maternal Healthcare on the Probability of Child Survival in Azerbaijan

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Lida

    2014-01-01

    This study assesses the effects of maternal healthcare on child survival by using nonrandomized data from a cross-sectional survey in Azerbaijan. Using 2SLS and simultaneous equation bivariate probit models, we estimate the effects of delivering in healthcare facility on probability of child survival taking into account self-selection into the treatment. For women who delivered at healthcare facilities, the probability of child survival increases by approximately 18%. Furthermore, if every woman had the opportunity to deliver in healthcare facility, then the probability of child survival in Azerbaijan as a whole would have increased by approximately 16%. PMID:25110673

  9. Recruitment in a Colorado population of big brown bats: Breeding probabilities, litter size, and first-year survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Reynolds, C.A.; Bowen, R.A.

    2010-01-01

    We used markrecapture estimation techniques and radiography to test hypotheses about 3 important aspects of recruitment in big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado: adult breeding probabilities, litter size, and 1st-year survival of young. We marked 2,968 females with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags at multiple sites during 2001-2005 and based our assessments on direct recaptures (breeding probabilities) and passive detection with automated PIT tag readers (1st-year survival). We interpreted our data in relation to hypotheses regarding demographic influences of bat age, roost, and effects of years with unusual environmental conditions: extreme drought (2002) and arrival of a West Nile virus epizootic (2003). Conditional breeding probabilities at 6 roosts sampled in 2002-2005 were estimated as 0.64 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.530.73) in 1-year-old females, but were consistently high (95% CI = 0.940.96) and did not vary by roost, year, or prior year breeding status in older adults. Mean litter size was 1.11 (95% CI = 1.051.17), based on examination of 112 pregnant females by radiography. Litter size was not higher in older or larger females and was similar to results of other studies in western North America despite wide variation in latitude. First-year survival was estimated as 0.67 (95% CI = 0.610.73) for weaned females at 5 maternity roosts over 5 consecutive years, was lower than adult survival (0.79; 95% CI = 0.770.81), and varied by roost. Based on model selection criteria, strong evidence exists for complex roost and year effects on 1st-year survival. First-year survival was lowest in bats born during the drought year. Juvenile females that did not return to roosts as 1-year-olds had lower body condition indices in late summer of their natal year than those known to survive. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

  10. Time preference and its relationship with age, health, and survival probability

    PubMed Central

    Chao, Li-Wei; Szrek, Helena; Pereira, Nuno Sousa; Pauly, Mark V.

    2009-01-01

    Although theories from economics and evolutionary biology predict that one's age, health, and survival probability should be associated with one's subjective discount rate (SDR), few studies have empirically tested for these links. Our study analyzes in detail how the SDR is related to age, health, and survival probability, by surveying a sample of individuals in townships around Durban, South Africa. In contrast to previous studies, we find that age is not significantly related to the SDR, but both physical health and survival expectations have a U-shaped relationship with the SDR. Individuals in very poor health have high discount rates, and those in very good health also have high discount rates. Similarly, those with expected survival probability on the extremes have high discount rates. Therefore, health and survival probability, and not age, seem to be predictors of one's SDR in an area of the world with high morbidity and mortality. PMID:20376300

  11. Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

    PubMed

    Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

    2016-04-01

    A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

  12. Survival of Common Eider Somateria mollissima adult females and ducklings during brood rearing

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Moran, C.L.; Schamber, J.L.

    1998-01-01

    We studied survival of adult female and duckling Common Eiders during brood rearing at two sites on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, in 1997. Duckling survival to 30 days of age was 19% ?? 10% (95% CI). Seventy-three percent of radio-marked adult females had lost all their ducklings by 30 days after hatch. Duckling survival was not related to hatch date. We estimate an average of 0.84 ducklings fledged per adult female radio-marked at hatch. Most broods moved to salt water within 15 days of hatch. Adult female survival during the first 30 days of brood rearing was 96 ?? 6% (95% CI). Mortality of adult females during brood rearing is probably higher than during other times of the year.

  13. Tests for senescent decline in annual survival probabilities of common pochards, Aythya ferina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Blums, P.

    1997-01-01

    Senescent decline in survival probabilities of animals is a topic about which much has been written but little is known. Here, we present formal tests of senescence hypotheses, using 1373 recaptures from 8877 duckling (age 0) and 504 yearling Common Pochards (Aythya ferina) banded at a Latvian study site, 1975-1992. The tests are based on capture-recapture models that explicitly incorporate sampling probabilities that, themselves, may exhibit timeand age-specific variation. The tests provided no evidence of senescent decline in survival probabilities for this species. Power of the most useful test was low for gradual declines in annual survival probability with age, but good for steeper declines. We recommend use of this type of capture-recapture modeling and analysis for other investigations of senescence in animal survival rates.

  14. Effects of amphibian chytrid fungus on individual survival probability in wild boreal toads.

    PubMed

    Pilliod, David S; Muths, Erin; Scherer, Rick D; Bartelt, Paul E; Corn, Paul Stephen; Hossack, Blake R; Lambert, Brad A; McCaffery, Rebecca; Gaughan, Christopher

    2010-10-01

    Chytridiomycosis is linked to the worldwide decline of amphibians, yet little is known about the demographic effects of the disease. We collected capture-recapture data on three populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas [Bufo = Anaxyrus]) in the Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.). Two of the populations were infected with chytridiomycosis and one was not. We examined the effect of the presence of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]; the agent of chytridiomycosis) on survival probability and population growth rate. Toads that were infected with Bd had lower average annual survival probability than uninfected individuals at sites where Bd was detected, which suggests chytridiomycosis may reduce survival by 31-42% in wild boreal toads. Toads that were negative for Bd at infected sites had survival probabilities comparable to toads at the uninfected site. Evidence that environmental covariates (particularly cold temperatures during the breeding season) influenced toad survival was weak. The number of individuals in diseased populations declined by 5-7%/year over the 6 years of the study, whereas the uninfected population had comparatively stable population growth. Our data suggest that the presence of Bd in these toad populations is not causing rapid population declines. Rather, chytridiomycosis appears to be functioning as a low-level, chronic disease whereby some infected individuals survive but the overall population effects are still negative. Our results show that some amphibian populations may be coexisting with Bd and highlight the importance of quantitative assessments of survival in diseased animal populations. PMID:20412086

  15. Effects of amphibian chytrid fungus on individual survival probability in wild boreal toads.

    PubMed

    Pilliod, David S; Muths, Erin; Scherer, Rick D; Bartelt, Paul E; Corn, Paul Stephen; Hossack, Blake R; Lambert, Brad A; McCaffery, Rebecca; Gaughan, Christopher

    2010-10-01

    Chytridiomycosis is linked to the worldwide decline of amphibians, yet little is known about the demographic effects of the disease. We collected capture-recapture data on three populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas [Bufo = Anaxyrus]) in the Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.). Two of the populations were infected with chytridiomycosis and one was not. We examined the effect of the presence of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]; the agent of chytridiomycosis) on survival probability and population growth rate. Toads that were infected with Bd had lower average annual survival probability than uninfected individuals at sites where Bd was detected, which suggests chytridiomycosis may reduce survival by 31-42% in wild boreal toads. Toads that were negative for Bd at infected sites had survival probabilities comparable to toads at the uninfected site. Evidence that environmental covariates (particularly cold temperatures during the breeding season) influenced toad survival was weak. The number of individuals in diseased populations declined by 5-7%/year over the 6 years of the study, whereas the uninfected population had comparatively stable population growth. Our data suggest that the presence of Bd in these toad populations is not causing rapid population declines. Rather, chytridiomycosis appears to be functioning as a low-level, chronic disease whereby some infected individuals survive but the overall population effects are still negative. Our results show that some amphibian populations may be coexisting with Bd and highlight the importance of quantitative assessments of survival in diseased animal populations.

  16. Parent–offspring resemblance in colony-specific adult survival of cliff swallows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, Charles R.; Roche, Erin A.; Brown, Mary Bomberger

    2015-01-01

    Survival is a key component of fitness. Species that occupy discrete breeding colonies with different characteristics are often exposed to varying costs and benefits associated with group size or environmental conditions, and survival is an integrative net measure of these effects. We investigated the extent to which survival probability of adult (≥1-year old) cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) occupying different colonies resembled that of their parental cohort and thus whether the natal colony had long-term effects on individuals. Individuals were cross-fostered between colonies soon after hatching and their presence as breeders monitored at colonies in the western Nebraska study area for the subsequent decade. Colony-specific adult survival probabilities of offspring born and reared in the same colony, and those cross-fostered away from their natal colony soon after birth, were positively and significantly related to subsequent adult survival of the parental cohort from the natal colony. This result held when controlling for the effect of natal colony size and the age composition of the parental cohort. In contrast, colony-specific adult survival of offspring cross-fostered to a site was unrelated to that of their foster parent cohort or to the cohort of non-fostered offspring with whom they were reared. Adult survival at a colony varied inversely with fecundity, as measured by mean brood size, providing evidence for a survival–fecundity trade-off in this species. The results suggest some heritable variation in adult survival, likely maintained by negative correlations between fitness components. The study provides additional evidence that colonies represent non-random collections of individuals.

  17. Survival Probability of the Néel State in Clean and Disordered Systems: An Overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torres-Herrera, E. J.; Távora, Marco; Santos, Lea F.

    2016-06-01

    In this work we provide an overview of our recent results about the quench dynamics of one-dimensional many-body quantum systems described by spin-1/2 models. To illustrate those general results, here we employ a particular and experimentally accessible initial state, namely the Néel state. Both cases are considered: clean chains without any disorder and disordered systems with static random on-site magnetic fields. The quantity used for the analysis is the probability for finding the initial state later in time, the so-called survival probability. At short times, the survival probability may decay faster than exponentially, Gaussian behaviors and even the limit established by the energy-time uncertainty relation are displayed. The dynamics at long times slows down significantly and shows a powerlaw behavior. For both scenarios, we provide analytical expressions that agree very well with our numerical results.

  18. Effects of amphibian chytrid fungus on individual survival probability in wild boreal toads

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pilliod, D.S.; Muths, E.; Scherer, R. D.; Bartelt, P.E.; Corn, P.S.; Hossack, B.R.; Lambert, B.A.; Mccaffery, R.; Gaughan, C.

    2010-01-01

    Chytridiomycosis is linked to the worldwide decline of amphibians, yet little is known about the demographic effects of the disease. We collected capture-recapture data on three populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas [Bufo = Anaxyrus]) in the Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.). Two of the populations were infected with chytridiomycosis and one was not. We examined the effect of the presence of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]; the agent of chytridiomycosis) on survival probability and population growth rate. Toads that were infected with Bd had lower average annual survival probability than uninfected individuals at sites where Bd was detected, which suggests chytridiomycosis may reduce survival by 31-42% in wild boreal toads. Toads that were negative for Bd at infected sites had survival probabilities comparable to toads at the uninfected site. Evidence that environmental covariates (particularly cold temperatures during the breeding season) influenced toad survival was weak. The number of individuals in diseased populations declined by 5-7%/year over the 6 years of the study, whereas the uninfected population had comparatively stable population growth. Our data suggest that the presence of Bd in these toad populations is not causing rapid population declines. Rather, chytridiomycosis appears to be functioning as a low-level, chronic disease whereby some infected individuals survive but the overall population effects are still negative. Our results show that some amphibian populations may be coexisting with Bd and highlight the importance of quantitative assessments of survival in diseased animal populations. Journal compilation. ?? 2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

  19. Asymptotic form for random walk survival probabilities on three-dimensional lattices with traps

    PubMed Central

    Weiss, George H.

    1980-01-01

    The problem of calculating statistics of time-to-trapping of a random walker on a trap-filled lattice is of interest in solid state physics. Several authors have suggested approximate methods for calculating the average survival probabilities. Here, an exact asymptotic form for the probability that an n step random walk visits Sn distinct sites is used to ascertain the validity of a simple approximation suggested by Rosenstock. For trap concentrations below 0.05, the relative error in using Rosenstock's approximation is less than 10%. PMID:16592853

  20. Fingerprints of exceptional points in the survival probability of resonances in atomic spectra

    SciTech Connect

    Cartarius, Holger; Moiseyev, Nimrod

    2011-07-15

    The unique time signature of the survival probability exactly at the exceptional point parameters is studied here for the hydrogen atom in strong static magnetic and electric fields. We show that indeed the survival probability S(t)=|<{psi}(0)|{psi}(t)>|{sup 2} decays exactly as |1-at|{sup 2}e{sup -{Gamma}{sub E}{sub P}t/({Dirac_h}/2{pi})}, where {Gamma}{sub EP} is associated with the decay rate at the exceptional point and a is a complex constant depending solely on the initial wave packet that populates exclusively the two almost degenerate states of the non-Hermitian Hamiltonian. This may open the possibility for a first experimental detection of exceptional points in a quantum system.

  1. Passage and survival probabilities of juvenile Chinook salmon at Cougar Dam, Oregon, 2012

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beeman, John W.; Evans, Scott D.; Haner, Philip V.; Hansel, Hal C.; Hansen, Amy C.; Smith, Collin D.; Sprando, Jamie M.

    2014-01-01

    This report describes studies of juvenile-salmon dam passage and apparent survival at Cougar Dam, Oregon, during two operating conditions in 2012. Cougar Dam is a 158-meter tall rock-fill dam used primarily for flood control, and passes water through a temperature control tower to either a powerhouse penstock or to a regulating outlet (RO). The temperature control tower has moveable weir gates to enable water of different elevations and temperatures to be drawn through the dam to control water temperatures downstream. A series of studies of downstream dam passage of juvenile salmonids were begun after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration determined that Cougar Dam was impacting the viability of anadromous fish stocks. The primary objectives of the studies described in this report were to estimate the route-specific fish passage probabilities at the dam and to estimate the survival probabilities of fish passing through the RO. The first set of dam operating conditions, studied in November, consisted of (1) a mean reservoir elevation of 1,589 feet, (2) water entering the temperature control tower through the weir gates, (3) most water routed through the turbines during the day and through the RO during the night, and (4) mean RO gate openings of 1.2 feet during the day and 3.2 feet during the night. The second set of dam operating conditions, studied in December, consisted of (1) a mean reservoir elevation of 1,507 ft, (2) water entering the temperature control tower through the RO bypass, (3) all water passing through the RO, and (4) mean RO gate openings of 7.3 feet during the day and 7.5 feet during the night. The studies were based on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) surgically implanted with radio transmitters and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags. Inferences about general dam passage percentage and timing of volitional migrants were based on surface-acclimated fish released in the reservoir. Dam passage and apparent

  2. Estimating annual survival and movement rates of adults within a metapopulation of roseate terns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hays, H.; Cormons, G.D.; Burger, J.; Safina, C.; Hines, J.E.; Gochfeld, M.

    1995-01-01

    Several multistratum capture-recapture models were used to test various hypotheses about possible geographic and temporal variation in survival, movement, and recapture/resighting probabilities of 2399 adult Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) color-banded from 1988 to 1992 at the sites of the four largest breeding colonies of this species in the northeastern USA. Linear-logistic ultrastructural models also were developed to investigate possible correlates of geographic variation in movement probabilities. Based on goodness-of-fit tests and comparisons of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) values, the fully parameterized model (Model A) with time- and location-specific survival, movement, and capture probabilities, was selected as the most appropriate model for this metapopulation structure. With almost all movement accounted for, on average gt 90% of the surviving adults from each colony site returned to the same site the following year. Variations in movement probabilities were more closely associated with the identity of the destination colony site than with either the identity of the colony site of origin or the distance between colony sites. The average annual survival estimates (0.740.84) of terns from all four sites indicate a high rate of annual mortality relative to that of other species of marine birds.

  3. The evolution of HPV-related anogenital cancers reported in Quebec - incidence rates and survival probabilities.

    PubMed

    Louchini, R; Goggin, P; Steben, M

    2008-01-01

    Non-cervical anogenital cancers (i.e. anal, vulvar, vaginal and penile cancers) associated with the human papillomavirus (HPV), for which HPV is known to be the necessary cause of carcinogenesis, are poorly documented due to their relatively low incidence rate. The aim of this study is to describe the incidence rates of these cancers between 1984 and 2001, and their relative survival probabilities, in Quebec (Canada) between 1984 and 1998. The incidence of these cancers is on the rise, particularly anal cancer in women and, more recently (since 1993-95), vulvar cancer. Between 1984-86 and 1993-95, the 5-year relative survival probability for men with anal cancer decreased from 57% to 46%, while that for penile cancer dropped from 75% to 59%. However, during the same period, the 5-year relative survival probability for women with anal cancer rose from 56% to 65%, and remained stable for cervical and vulvar cancers, at 74% and 82%, respectively. PMID:18341764

  4. Do ducks and songbirds initiate more nests when the probability of survival is greater?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, Todd A.; Shaffer, Terry L.

    2015-01-01

    Nesting chronology in grassland birds can vary by species, locality, and year. The date a nest is initiated can influence the subsequent probability of its survival in some grassland bird species. Because predation is the most significant cause of nest loss in grassland birds, we examined the relation between timing of nesting and nest survival. Periods of high nest survival that correspond with the peak of nesting activity might reflect long-term adaptations to specific predation pressures commonly recurring during certain periods of the nesting cycle. We evaluated this theory by comparing timing of nesting with date-specific nest survival rates for several duck and passerine species breeding in north-central North Dakota during 1998–2003. Nest survival decreased seasonally with date for five of the seven species we studied. We found little evidence to support consistent relations between timing of nesting, the number of nest initiations, and nest survival for any species we studied, suggesting that factors other than nest predation may better explain nesting chronology for these species. The apparent mismatch between date-specific patterns of nest survival and nest initiation underscores uncertainty about the process of avian nest site selection driven mainly by predation. Although timing of nesting differed among species, the general nesting period was fairly predictable across all years of study, suggesting the potential for research activities or management actions to be timed to take advantage of known periods when nests are active (or inactive). However, our results do not support the notion that biologists can take advantage of periods when many nests are active and survival is also high.

  5. Analysis of feedbacks between nucleation rate, survival probability and cloud condensation nuclei formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Pierce, J. R.; Adams, P. J.

    2014-06-01

    Aerosol nucleation is an important source of particle number in the atmosphere. However, in order to become cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), freshly nucleated particles must undergo significant condensational growth while avoiding coagulational scavenging. In an effort to quantify the contribution of nucleation to CCN, this work uses the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS global aerosol model to calculate changes in CCN concentrations against a broad range of nucleation rates and mechanisms. We then quantify the factors that control CCN formation from nucleation, including daily nucleation rates, growth rates, coagulation sinks, condensation sinks, survival probabilities, and CCN formation rates, in order to examine feedbacks that may limit growth of nucleated particles to CCN. Nucleation rate parameterizations tested in GEOS-Chem-TOMAS include ternary nucleation (with multiple tuning factors), activation nucleation (with two pre-factors), binary nucleation, and ion-mediated nucleation. We find that nucleation makes a significant contribution to boundary layer CCN(0.2%), but this contribution is only modestly sensitive to the choice of nucleation scheme, ranging from 49 to 78% increase in concentrations over a control simulation with no nucleation. Moreover, a two order-of-magnitude increase in the globally averaged nucleation rate (via changes to tuning factors) results in small changes (less than 10%) to global CCN(0.2%) concentrations. To explain this, we present a simple theory showing that survival probability has an exponentially decreasing dependence on the square of the condensation sink. This functional form stems from a negative correlation between condensation sink and growth rate and a positive correlation between condensation sink and coagulational scavenging. Conceptually, with a fixed condensable vapor budget (sulfuric acid and organics), any increase in CCN concentrations due to higher nucleation rates necessarily entails an increased aerosol surface area in the

  6. Survival of adult female northern pintails in Sacramento Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, Michael R.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Orthmeyer, Dennis L.; Newton, Wesley E.; Gilmer, David S.

    1995-01-01

    North American populations of northern pintails (Anas acuta) declined between 1979 and the early 1990s. To determine if low survival during winter contributed to declines, we estimated winter (last week of Aug-Feb 1987-90) survival for 190 adult (after hatching yr [AHY]) female radio-tagged pintails in late summer in Sacramento Valley (SACV), California. Survival rates did not vary by winter (P = 0.808), among preseason, hunting season, or postseason intervals (P = 0.579), or by body mass at time of capture (P = 0.127). Premolt (wing) pintails (n = 10) tended to survive at a lower rate (0.622, SE = 0.178) than pintails that had already replaced flight feathers (0.887, SE = 0.030) (P = 0.091). The pooled survival (all years) estimate for the 180-day winter was 0.874 (SE = 0.031). Hunting mortality rate (0.041-0.087) and nonhunting mortality rate (0.013-0.076) did not differ among years (P = 0.332) or within years (all P > 0.149). Legal hunting (n = 7), predation (n = 4), cholera (n = 2), illegal shooting (n = 2), botulism (n = 1), and unknown cause (n = 1) accounted for all mortality. Nonwintering survival (annu. survival/winter survival = 0.748) was lower than winter survival; thus, if gains in annual survival are desired for this population, managers should first examine the breeding-migration period for opportunities to achieve increases.

  7. Modelling postfledging survival and age- specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: A case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

    2002-01-01

    We modelled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-year-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-year-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-year maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected to be due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

  8. Modelling postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: a case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Pradel, R.

    2002-01-01

    We modeled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-yr-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-yr-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation in age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-yr maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

  9. Breeding productivity and adult survival in nongame birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Thomas E.; DeSante, David F.; Paine, Charles R.; Donovan, Therese M.; Dettmers, Randy; Manolis, J.C.; Burton, K.

    1995-01-01

    Demographic data (breeding productivity and adult survival) provide the kind of early warning signal that allows detection of unhealthy populations in terms of productivity or survival problems (Martin and Guepel 1993). In addition, demographic data can help determine whether population declines are the result of low breeding productivity or low survival in migration or winter. Breeding productivity data also can help identify habitat conditions associated with successful and failed breeding attempts. Such information is critical for developing habitat- and land-management practices (Martin 1992). Here, we provide examples of the kinds of information that can be obtained by broad-scale demographic studies.

  10. Lesser scaup breeding probability and female survival on the yukon flats, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, K.H.; Lindberg, M.S.; Schmutz, J.A.; Bertram, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    Information on the ecology of waterfowl breeding in the boreal forest is lacking, despite the boreal region's importance to continental waterfowl populations and to duck species that are currently declining, such as lesser scaup (Aythya affinis). We estimated breeding probability and breeding season survival of female lesser scaup on the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA, in 2005 and 2006. We captured and marked 93 lesser scaup with radiotransmitters during prelaying and nesting periods. Although all marked lesser scaup females were paired throughout prelaying and incubation periods, we estimated breeding probability over both years as 0.12 (SE = 0.05, n = 67) using telemetry. Proportion of lesser scaup females undergoing rapid follicle growth at capture in 2006 was 0.46 (SE = 0.11, n = 37), based on concentration of yolk precursors in blood plasma. By combining methods based on telemetry, yolk precursors, and postovulatory follicles, we estimated maximum breeding probability as 0.68 (SE = 0.08, n = 37) in 2006. Notably, breeding probability was positively related to female body mass. Survival of female lesser scaup during the nesting and brood-rearing periods was 0.92 (SE = 0.05) in 2005 and 0.86 (SE = 0.08) in 2006. Our results suggest that breeding probability is lower than expected for lesser scaup. In addition, the implicit assumption of continental duck-monitoring programs that all paired females attempt to breed should be reevaluated. Recruitment estimates based on annual breeding-pair surveys may overestimate productivity of scaup pairs in the boreal forest. ?? The Wildlife Society.

  11. Colony size selection determines adult survival and dispersal preferences: allee effects in a colonial bird.

    PubMed

    Serrano, David; Oro, Daniel; Ursua, Esperanza; Tella, José L

    2005-08-01

    Avian coloniality traditionally has been investigated by examining how breeding success varies with colony size, but other crucial fitness components rarely have been examined. This may lead to wrong conclusions because unmeasured parameters may change the final fitness balance. We used multistate capture-recapture models to investigate adult survival and dispersal in relation to colony size within a long-term monitored population of lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni). Nest predation probability decreases with colony size, and adult survival is predicted to show the same trend because adults are exposed to the same suite of predators. As expected, survival probability was higher in large colonies (0.72+/-0.015; mean+/-SE) than in medium or small colonies (0.65+/-0.02). Additionally, dispersal probabilities were higher going from small to large colonies (0.20+/-0.01) than from large to small (0.08+/-0.01), as predicted by theory of habitat selection shaped by fitness maximization. These asymmetries are likely to generate size-specific colony population dynamics, so they should be taken into account in studies of colonial birds and other metapopulation-like systems. Allee effects, that is, positive density dependence, appear to be the cause of the evolution of dispersal behavior and may explain the maintenance of coloniality in this species. PMID:16032568

  12. Modeling and estimation of stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, T.R.

    2000-01-01

    In studies of avian nesting success, it is often of interest to estimate stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests. When data can be partitioned by nesting stage (e.g., incubation stage, nestling stage), piecewise application of the Mayfield method or Johnsona??s method is appropriate. However, when the data contain nests where the transition from one stage to the next occurred during the interval between visits, piecewise approaches are inappropriate. In this paper, I present a model that allows joint estimation of stage-specific daily survival probabilities even when the time of transition between stages is unknown. The model allows interval lengths between visits to nests to vary, and the exact time of failure of nests does not need to be known. The performance of the model at various sample sizes and interval lengths between visits was investigated using Monte Carlo simulations, and it was found that the model performed quite well: bias was small and confidence-interval coverage was at the nominal 95% rate. A SAS program for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and their standard errors, is provided in the Appendix.

  13. Survival probability of a particle in a sea of mobile traps: a tale of tails.

    PubMed

    Yuste, S B; Oshanin, G; Lindenberg, K; Bénichou, O; Klafter, J

    2008-08-01

    We study the long-time tails of the survival probability P(t) of an A particle diffusing in d-dimensional media in the presence of a concentration rho of traps B that move subdiffusively, such that the mean square displacement of each trap grows as tgamma with 0 < or = gamma < or =1. Starting from a continuous time random walk description of the motion of the particle and of the traps, we derive lower and upper bounds for P(t) and show that for gamma < or =2/(d+2) these bounds coincide asymptotically, thus determining asymptotically exact results. The asymptotic decay law in this regime is exactly that obtained for immobile traps. This means that for sufficiently subdiffusive traps, the moving A particle sees the traps as essentially immobile, and Lifshitz or trapping tails remain unchanged. For gamma >2/(d+2) and d< or =2 the upper and lower bounds again coincide, leading to a decay law equal to that of a stationary particle. Thus, in this regime the moving traps see the particle as essentially immobile. For d>2 , however, the upper and lower bounds in this gamma regime no longer coincide, and the decay law for the survival probability of the A particle remains ambiguous.

  14. Gender, literacy, and survival among Ethiopian adults, 1987 - 96.

    PubMed Central

    Berhane, Yemane; Hogberg, Ulf; Byass, Peter; Wall, Stig

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine relationships between gender, literacy and survival among adults in Meskan and Mareko district, Ethiopia. METHODS: On the basis of an established demographic surveillance system, an open-cohort analysis of 172726 person-years covering the period January 1987 to December 1996 was conducted in 10 randomly selected local communities. FINDINGS: The crude mortality rate was 11.2 per 1000 person-years among adults aged > or =15 years; the values for males and females were 11.9 and 10.6 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Kaplan - Meier estimates showed that literacy and being female were both favourable for survival throughout adulthood. Cox's regression models showed that age, gender, literacy and area (rural lowland, rural highland and urban) were significant factors in survival: younger, female, literate urban dwellers were the most favoured. Gender differences in mortality were small in the rural areas, possibly because of the harsh living conditions and the marginalization of women. Literacy was a more significant factor for survival in the rural areas, where mortality was highest, while gender was more important in the one urban area studied. The levels of literacy were lowest among rural females. CONCLUSION: Special attention should be given to raising literacy levels among rural women with a view to improving their survival. PMID:12378289

  15. Dietary variety increases the probability of nutrient adequacy among adults.

    PubMed

    Foote, Janet A; Murphy, Suzanne P; Wilkens, Lynne R; Basiotis, P Peter; Carlson, Andrea

    2004-07-01

    Despite guidance to consume a variety of foods, the role of dietary variety in ensuring nutrient adequacy is unclear. The aim of this study was to determine whether a commodity-based measure of dietary variety was associated with the probability of nutrient adequacy after adjusting for energy and food group intakes. Subjects were 4969 men and 4800 women >/= 19 y old who participated in the Continuing Survey of Food Intakes for Individuals 1994-1996. Using 24-h recall data, the mean probability of adequacy across 15 nutrients was calculated using the Dietary Reference Intakes. Dietary variety was defined using a commodity-based method similar to that used for the Healthy Eating Index (HEI). Associations were examined in gender-specific multivariate regression models. Energy intake was a strong predictor of the mean probability of adequacy in models controlled for age, BMI, education level, and ethnicity (model R(2) = 0.60 and 0.54 for men and women, respectively). Adding the number of servings from each of the 5 Food Guide Pyramid (FGP) groups to the models significantly improved the model fit (R(2) = 0.69 and 0.66 for men and women). Adding dietary variety again significantly improved the model fit for both men and women (R(2) = 0.73 and 0.70, respectively). Variety counts within the dairy and grain groups were most strongly associated with improved nutrient adequacy. Dietary variety as defined by the HEI contributes an additional component of dietary quality that is not captured by FGP servings or energy intake. PMID:15226469

  16. Passage and survival probabilities of juvenile Chinook salmon at Cougar Dam, Oregon, 2012

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beeman, John W.; Evans, Scott D.; Haner, Philip V.; Hansel, Hal C.; Hansen, Amy C.; Smith, Collin D.; Sprando, Jamie M.

    2014-01-01

    This report describes studies of juvenile-salmon dam passage and apparent survival at Cougar Dam, Oregon, during two operating conditions in 2012. Cougar Dam is a 158-meter tall rock-fill dam used primarily for flood control, and passes water through a temperature control tower to either a powerhouse penstock or to a regulating outlet (RO). The temperature control tower has moveable weir gates to enable water of different elevations and temperatures to be drawn through the dam to control water temperatures downstream. A series of studies of downstream dam passage of juvenile salmonids were begun after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration determined that Cougar Dam was impacting the viability of anadromous fish stocks. The primary objectives of the studies described in this report were to estimate the route-specific fish passage probabilities at the dam and to estimate the survival probabilities of fish passing through the RO. The first set of dam operating conditions, studied in November, consisted of (1) a mean reservoir elevation of 1,589 feet, (2) water entering the temperature control tower through the weir gates, (3) most water routed through the turbines during the day and through the RO during the night, and (4) mean RO gate openings of 1.2 feet during the day and 3.2 feet during the night. The second set of dam operating conditions, studied in December, consisted of (1) a mean reservoir elevation of 1,507 ft, (2) water entering the temperature control tower through the RO bypass, (3) all water passing through the RO, and (4) mean RO gate openings of 7.3 feet during the day and 7.5 feet during the night. The studies were based on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) surgically implanted with radio transmitters and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags. Inferences about general dam passage percentage and timing of volitional migrants were based on surface-acclimated fish released in the reservoir. Dam passage and apparent

  17. Estimation of survival of adult Florida manatees in the Crystal River, at Blue Spring, and on the Atlantic Coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, Thomas J.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

    1995-01-01

    We applied Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models to manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) photo-identification databases to estimate adult survival probabilities. The computer programs JOLLY and RECAPCO were used to estimate survival of 677 individuals in three study areas: Crystal River (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), Blue Spring (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), and the Atlantic Coast (winters 1984-85 to 1990-91). We also estimated annual survival from observations of 111 manatees tagged for studies with radiotelemetry. Survival estimated from observations with telemetry had broader confidence intervals than survival estimated with the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Annual probabilities of capture based on photo-identification records were generally high. The mean annual adult survival estimated from sighting-resighting records was 0.959-0.962 in the Crystal River and 0.936-0.948 at Blue Spring and may be high enough to permit population growth, given the values of other life-history parameters. On the Atlantic Coast, the estimated annual adult survival (range of means = 0.877-0.885) may signify a declining population. However, for several reasons, interpretation of data from the latter study group should be tempered with caution. Adult survivorship seems to be constant with age in all three study groups. No strong differences were apparent between adult survival ofmales and females in the Crystal River or at Blue Spring; the basis of significant differences between sexes on the Atlantic Coast is unclear. Future research into estimating survival with photo-identification and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models should be vigorously pursued. Estimates of annual survival can provide an additional indication of Florida manatee population status with a stronger statistical basis than aerial counts and carcass totals.

  18. Cluster geometry and survival probability in systems driven by reaction diffusion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Windus, Alastair; Jensen, Henrik J.

    2008-11-01

    We consider a reaction-diffusion model incorporating the reactions A→phi, A→2A and 2A→3A. Depending on the relative rates for sexual and asexual reproduction of the quantity A, the model exhibits either a continuous or first-order absorbing phase transition to an extinct state. A tricritical point separates the two phase lines. While we comment on this critical behaviour, the main focus of the paper is on the geometry of the population clusters that form. We observe the different cluster structures that arise at criticality for the three different types of critical behaviour and show that there exists a linear relationship for the survival probability against initial cluster size at the tricritical point only.

  19. Time-Dependence of the Survival Probability of Quarkonia in Quark-Gluon Plasma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mah Hussin, Noor Sabrina; Shalaby, Asmaa; Petridis, Athanasios

    2015-10-01

    The time-dependent Schrödinger equation is used to study the formation of quarkonia and their propagation in Quark-Gluon Plasma (QGP). The initial bound (ground) state is computed using imaginary-time propagation in a confining potential. The QGP is simulated with a confining potential of an extended asymptotic freedom region. The interior of the QGP potential may correspond to a vacuum that differs from that of the exterior region. The initial state propagates through this potential in real time. The survival probability is calculated versus time for various potential parameters and relative momenta of the quarkonium by projecting the interacting wavefunction onto its freely-propagating counterpart. In these calculations the staggered-leap frog method is used with special attention paid to the issue of stability. It is found that quarkonium decay is typically non-exponential. Fast moving states decay faster. Connection with experimental results is done by means of cross-section ratios.

  20. Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt, Annie E.; Dybala, Kristen E.; Botsford, Louis W.; Eadie, John M.; Bradley, Russell W.; Jahncke, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    With a rapidly changing climate, there is an increasing need to predict how species will respond to changes in the physical environment. One approach is to use historic data to estimate the past influence of environmental variation on important demographic parameters and then use these relationships to project the abundance of a population or species under future climate scenarios. However, as novel climate conditions emerge, novel species responses may also appear. In some systems, environmental conditions beyond the range of those observed during the course of most long-term ecological studies are already evident. Yet little attention has been given to how these novel conditions may be influencing previously established environment–species relationships. Here, we model the relationships between ocean conditions and the demography of a long-lived seabird, Brandt’s cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatusI), in central California and show that these relationships have changed in recent years. Beginning in 2007/2008, the response of Brandt’s cormorant, an upper trophic level predator, to ocean conditions shifted, resulting in lower than predicted survival and breeding probability. Survival was generally less variable than breeding probability and was initially best predicted by the basin-scale forcing of the El Niño Southern Oscillation rather than local ocean conditions. The shifting response of Brandt’s cormorant to ocean conditions may be just a proximate indication of altered dynamics in the food web and that important forage fish are not responding to the physical ocean environment as expected. These changing relationships have important implications for our ability to project the effects of future climate change for species and communities. PMID:26168050

  1. Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Annie E; Dybala, Kristen E; Botsford, Louis W; Eadie, John M; Bradley, Russell W; Jahncke, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    With a rapidly changing climate, there is an increasing need to predict how species will respond to changes in the physical environment. One approach is to use historic data to estimate the past influence of environmental variation on important demographic parameters and then use these relationships to project the abundance of a population or species under future climate scenarios. However, as novel climate conditions emerge, novel species responses may also appear. In some systems, environmental conditions beyond the range of those observed during the course of most long-term ecological studies are already evident. Yet little attention has been given to how these novel conditions may be influencing previously established environment-species relationships. Here, we model the relationships between ocean conditions and the demography of a long-lived seabird, Brandt's cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatusI), in central California and show that these relationships have changed in recent years. Beginning in 2007/2008, the response of Brandt's cormorant, an upper trophic level predator, to ocean conditions shifted, resulting in lower than predicted survival and breeding probability. Survival was generally less variable than breeding probability and was initially best predicted by the basin-scale forcing of the El Niño Southern Oscillation rather than local ocean conditions. The shifting response of Brandt's cormorant to ocean conditions may be just a proximate indication of altered dynamics in the food web and that important forage fish are not responding to the physical ocean environment as expected. These changing relationships have important implications for our ability to project the effects of future climate change for species and communities.

  2. Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Annie E; Dybala, Kristen E; Botsford, Louis W; Eadie, John M; Bradley, Russell W; Jahncke, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    With a rapidly changing climate, there is an increasing need to predict how species will respond to changes in the physical environment. One approach is to use historic data to estimate the past influence of environmental variation on important demographic parameters and then use these relationships to project the abundance of a population or species under future climate scenarios. However, as novel climate conditions emerge, novel species responses may also appear. In some systems, environmental conditions beyond the range of those observed during the course of most long-term ecological studies are already evident. Yet little attention has been given to how these novel conditions may be influencing previously established environment-species relationships. Here, we model the relationships between ocean conditions and the demography of a long-lived seabird, Brandt's cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatusI), in central California and show that these relationships have changed in recent years. Beginning in 2007/2008, the response of Brandt's cormorant, an upper trophic level predator, to ocean conditions shifted, resulting in lower than predicted survival and breeding probability. Survival was generally less variable than breeding probability and was initially best predicted by the basin-scale forcing of the El Niño Southern Oscillation rather than local ocean conditions. The shifting response of Brandt's cormorant to ocean conditions may be just a proximate indication of altered dynamics in the food web and that important forage fish are not responding to the physical ocean environment as expected. These changing relationships have important implications for our ability to project the effects of future climate change for species and communities. PMID:26168050

  3. Adult Rhabdomyosarcoma Survival Improved With Treatment on Multimodality Protocols

    SciTech Connect

    Gerber, Naamit Kurshan; Wexler, Leonard H.; Singer, Samuel; Alektiar, Kaled M.; Keohan, Mary Louise; Shi, Weiji; Zhang, Zhigang; Wolden, Suzanne

    2013-05-01

    Purpose: Rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) is a pediatric sarcoma rarely occurring in adults. For unknown reasons, adults with RMS have worse outcomes than do children. Methods and Materials: We analyzed data from all patients who presented to Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between 1990 and 2011 with RMS diagnosed at age 16 or older. One hundred forty-eight patients met the study criteria. Ten were excluded for lack of adequate data. Results: The median age was 28 years. The histologic diagnoses were as follows: embryonal 54%, alveolar 33%, pleomorphic 12%, and not otherwise specified 2%. The tumor site was unfavorable in 67% of patients. Thirty-three patients (24%) were at low risk, 61 (44%) at intermediate risk, and 44 (32%) at high risk. Forty-six percent were treated on or according to a prospective RMS protocol. The 5-year rate of overall survival (OS) was 45% for patients with nonmetastatic disease. The failure rates at 5 years for patients with nonmetastatic disease were 34% for local failure and 42% for distant failure. Among patients with nonmetastatic disease (n=94), significant factors associated with OS were histologic diagnosis, site, risk group, age, and protocol treatment. On multivariate analysis, risk group and protocol treatment were significant after adjustment for age. The 5-year OS was 54% for protocol patients versus 36% for nonprotocol patients. Conclusions: Survival in adult patients with nonmetastatic disease was significantly improved for those treated on RMS protocols, most of which are now open to adults.

  4. Survival of adult female elk in yellowstone following wolf restoration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Evans, S.B.; Mech, L.D.; White, P.J.; Sargeant, G.A.

    2006-01-01

    Counts of northern Yellowstone elk (Cervus elaphus) in northwestern Wyoming and adjacent Montana, USA, have decreased at an average rate of 6-8% per year since wolves (Canis lupus) were reintroduced in 1995. Population growth rates of elk are typically sensitive to variations in adult female survival; populations that are stable or increasing exhibit high adult female survival. We used survival records for 85 radiocollared adult female elk 1-19 years old to estimate annual survival from March 2000 to February 2004. Weighted average annual survival rates were approximately 0.83 (95% CI = 0.77-0.89) for females 1-15 years old and 0.80 (95% CI = 0.73-0.86) for all females. Our estimates were much lower than the rate of 0.99 observed during 1969-1975 when fewer elk were harvested by hunters, wolves were not present, and other predators were less numerous. Of 33 documented deaths included in our analysis, we attributed 11 to hunter harvest, 14 to predation (10 wolf, 2 unknown, 1 cougar [Puma concolor], and 1 bear [Ursus sp.]), 6 to unknown causes, and 2 to winter-kill. Most deaths occurred from December through March. Estimates of cause-specific annual mortality rates were 0.09 (0.05-0.14) for all predators, 0.08 (0.04-0.13) for hunting, and 0.07 (0.03-0.11) for wolves specifically. Wolf-killed elk were typically older (median = 12 yr) than hunter-killed elk (median = 9 yr, P = 0.03). However, elk that winter outside the park where they were exposed to hunting were also younger (median = 7 yr) than elk that we did not observe outside the park (median = 9 yr, P < 0.01). Consequently, differences in ages of elk killed by wolves and hunters may reflect characteristics of elk exposed to various causes of mortality, as well as differences in susceptibility. Unless survival rates of adult females increase, elk numbers are likely to continue declining. Hunter harvest is the only cause of mortality that is amenable to management at the present time.

  5. Survival probability of precipitations and rain attenuation in tropical and equatorial regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohebbi Nia, Masoud; Din, Jafri; Panagopoulos, Athanasios D.; Lam, Hong Yin

    2015-08-01

    This contribution presents a stochastic model useful for the generation of a long-term tropospheric rain attenuation time series for Earth space or a terrestrial radio link in tropical and equatorial heavy rain regions based on the well-known Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model previously employed in research in the fields of finance and economics. This model assumes typical gamma distribution for rain attenuation in heavy rain climatic regions and utilises the temporal dynamic of precipitation collected in equatorial Johor, Malaysia. Different formations of survival probability are also discussed. Furthermore, the correlation between these probabilities and the Markov process is determined, and information on the variance and autocorrelation function of rain events with respect to the particular characteristics of precipitation in this area is presented. The proposed technique proved to preserve the peculiarities of precipitation for an equatorial region and reproduce fairly good statistics of the rain attenuation correlation function that could help to improve the prediction of dynamic characteristics of rain fade events.

  6. Flexible regression model selection for survival probabilities: with application to AIDS.

    PubMed

    DiRienzo, A Gregory

    2009-12-01

    Clinicians are often interested in the effect of covariates on survival probabilities at prespecified study times. Because different factors can be associated with the risk of short- and long-term failure, a flexible modeling strategy is pursued. Given a set of multiple candidate working models, an objective methodology is proposed that aims to construct consistent and asymptotically normal estimators of regression coefficients and average prediction error for each working model, that are free from the nuisance censoring variable. It requires the conditional distribution of censoring given covariates to be modeled. The model selection strategy uses stepup or stepdown multiple hypothesis testing procedures that control either the proportion of false positives or generalized familywise error rate when comparing models based on estimates of average prediction error. The context can actually be cast as a missing data problem, where augmented inverse probability weighted complete case estimators of regression coefficients and prediction error can be used (Tsiatis, 2006, Semiparametric Theory and Missing Data). A simulation study and an interesting analysis of a recent AIDS trial are provided. PMID:19173693

  7. Notes on the Lumped Backward Master Equation for the Neutron Extinction/Survival Probability

    SciTech Connect

    Prinja, Anil K

    2012-07-02

    chains (a fission chain is defined as the initial source neutron and all its subsequent progeny) in which some chains are short lived while others propagate for unusually long times. Under these conditions, fission chains do not overlap strongly and this precludes the cancellation of neutron number fluctuations necessary for the mean to become established as the dominant measure of the neutron population. The fate of individual chains then plays a defining role in the evolution of the neutron population in strongly stochastic systems, and of particular interest and importance in supercritical systems is the extinction probability, defined as the probability that the neutron chain (initiating neutron and its progeny) will be extinguished at a particular time, or its complement, the time-dependent survival probability. The time-asymptotic limit of the latter, the probability of divergence, gives the probability that the neutron population will grow without bound, and is more commonly known as the probability of initiation or just POI. The ability to numerically compute these probabilities, with high accuracy and without overly restricting the underlying physics (e.g., fission neutron multiplicity, reactivity variation) is clearly essential in developing an understanding of the behavior of strongly stochastic systems.

  8. Posttournament survival and dispersal of adult striped bass

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Young, S.P.; Isely, J.J.

    2006-01-01

    We conducted a telemetry study from November 2004 to June 2005 at J. Strom Thurmond Reservoir in South Carolina and Georgia to quantify posttournament survival of striped bass and their dispersal from tournament weigh-in sites. During November-December 2004, 30 adult striped bass weighing 1.0-10.0 kg were angled, held in "striped bass tube" live-holding systems for 2-5 h, transported to a predetermined weigh-in and release site, and surgically implanted with telemetry transmitters. All striped bass survived transport, recovered from the surgical procedure, and were immediately released. The postrelease survival rate after 120 d was 87%. Surviving striped bass dispersed from the release site within 2-9 d. Fifty-four percent returned to their capture sites. Capture, holding, displacement, and weigh-in appeared to have no long-term adverse affects on behavior. Live release of striped bass may now be a viable option after tournaments during periods of cool water temperatures. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  9. Effects of ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall on annual survival of adult little penguins Eudyptula minor in southeastern Australia.

    PubMed

    Ganendran, L B; Sidhu, L A; Catchpole, E A; Chambers, L E; Dann, P

    2016-08-01

    Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based activities such as breeding and, for some species, moult; particularly if they undergo a catastrophic moult (complete simultaneous moult) as do penguins. We investigated potential relationships between adult penguin survival and land-based climate variables (ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall) using 46 years of mark-recapture data of little penguins Eudyptula minor gathered at a breeding colony on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia. Our results showed that adult penguin survival had a stronger association with land-based climate variables during the moult period, when birds were unable to go to sea for up to 3 weeks, than during the breeding period, when birds could sacrifice breeding success in favour of survival. Annual adult survival probability was positively associated with humidity during moult and negatively associated with rainfall during moult. Prolonged heat during breeding and moult had a negative association with annual adult survival. Local climate projections suggest increasing days of high temperatures, fewer days of rainfall which will result in more droughts (and by implication, lower humidity) and more extreme rainfall events. All of these predicted climate changes are expected to have a negative impact on adult penguin survival.

  10. Effects of ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall on annual survival of adult little penguins Eudyptula minor in southeastern Australia.

    PubMed

    Ganendran, L B; Sidhu, L A; Catchpole, E A; Chambers, L E; Dann, P

    2016-08-01

    Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based activities such as breeding and, for some species, moult; particularly if they undergo a catastrophic moult (complete simultaneous moult) as do penguins. We investigated potential relationships between adult penguin survival and land-based climate variables (ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall) using 46 years of mark-recapture data of little penguins Eudyptula minor gathered at a breeding colony on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia. Our results showed that adult penguin survival had a stronger association with land-based climate variables during the moult period, when birds were unable to go to sea for up to 3 weeks, than during the breeding period, when birds could sacrifice breeding success in favour of survival. Annual adult survival probability was positively associated with humidity during moult and negatively associated with rainfall during moult. Prolonged heat during breeding and moult had a negative association with annual adult survival. Local climate projections suggest increasing days of high temperatures, fewer days of rainfall which will result in more droughts (and by implication, lower humidity) and more extreme rainfall events. All of these predicted climate changes are expected to have a negative impact on adult penguin survival. PMID:26698160

  11. Effects of ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall on annual survival of adult little penguins Eudyptula minor in southeastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganendran, L. B.; Sidhu, L. A.; Catchpole, E. A.; Chambers, L. E.; Dann, P.

    2016-08-01

    Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based activities such as breeding and, for some species, moult; particularly if they undergo a catastrophic moult (complete simultaneous moult) as do penguins. We investigated potential relationships between adult penguin survival and land-based climate variables (ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall) using 46 years of mark-recapture data of little penguins Eudyptula minor gathered at a breeding colony on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia. Our results showed that adult penguin survival had a stronger association with land-based climate variables during the moult period, when birds were unable to go to sea for up to 3 weeks, than during the breeding period, when birds could sacrifice breeding success in favour of survival. Annual adult survival probability was positively associated with humidity during moult and negatively associated with rainfall during moult. Prolonged heat during breeding and moult had a negative association with annual adult survival. Local climate projections suggest increasing days of high temperatures, fewer days of rainfall which will result in more droughts (and by implication, lower humidity) and more extreme rainfall events. All of these predicted climate changes are expected to have a negative impact on adult penguin survival.

  12. Quantifying the impact of longline fisheries on adult survival in the black-footed albatross

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Veran, S.; Gimenez, O.; Flint, E.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; Lebreton, J.D.

    2007-01-01

    1. Industrial longline fishing has been suspected to impact upon black-footed albatross populations Phoebastria nigripes by increasing mortality, but no precise estimates of bycatch mortality are available to ascertain this statement. We present a general framework for quantifying the relationship between albatross population and longline fishing in absence of reliable estimates of bycatch rate. 2. We analysed capture?recapture data of a population of black-footed albatross to obtain estimates of survival probability for this population using several alternative models to adequately take into account heterogeneity in the recapture process. Instead of trying to estimate the number of birds killed by using various extrapolations and unchecked assumptions, we investigate the potential relationship between annual adult survival and several measures of fishing effort. Although we considered a large number of covariates, we used principal component analysis to generate a few uncorrelated synthetic variables from the set and thus we maintained both power and robustness. 3. The average survival for 1997?2002 was 92%, a low value compared to estimates available for other albatross species. We found that one of the synthetic variables used to summarize industrial longline fishing significantly explained more than 40% of the variation in adult survival over 11 years, suggesting an impact by longline fishing on albatross? survival. 4. Our analysis provides some evidence of non-linear variation in survival with fishing effort. This could indicate that below a certain level of fishing effort, deaths due to incidental catch can be partially or totally compensated for by a decrease in natural mortality. Another possible explanation is the existence of a strong interspecific competition for accessing the baits, reducing the risk of being accidentally hooked. 5. Synthesis and applications. The suspicion of a significant impact of longline fishing on the black-footed albatross

  13. Quantitative survival model for short-term survival after adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation.

    PubMed

    Tsunematsu, Ichiro; Ogura, Yasuhiro; Inoue, Kayoko; Koizumi, Akio; Tanigawa, Nobuhiko; Tanaka, Koichi

    2006-06-01

    Adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation (ALDLT) has been accepted as an important option for end-stage liver disease, but information regarding the risk factors remains fragmentary. We aimed to establish a predictive model for 90-day survival. In the first step, a total of 286 cases who had received primary ALDLT using a right lobe graft between 1998 and 2004 were randomly divided into 2 cohorts at a ratio of 2:1 (191 vs. 95 recipients). The larger cohort of patients was used to develop a model. The outcome was defined as 90-day survival, and a total of 39 preoperative and operative variables, including the period of surgery (1998-2001 vs. 2002-2004), were included using Cox's proportional hazard regression model. Two mismatches of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) type DR (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.45; confidence interval [CI] = 1.96-10.1), log(e)[blood loss volume] (HR = 2.43; CI = 1.64-3.60), period of surgery (1998-2001 vs. 2002-2004) (HR = 2.41; CI = 1.04-5.57), and log(e)[serum C-reactive protein or CRP] (HR = 1.64; CI = 1.13-2.38) were found to be independent risk factors. In the second step, we tried to establish a realistic survival model. In this step, we created 2 models, 1 that used all 4 variables (model 1) and 1 (model 2) in which blood loss volume was replaced with the past history of upper abdominal surgery and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (> or =25), both of which showed associations with blood loss volume. These models were applied to the smaller cohort of 95 patients. Receiver operating characteristic analyses demonstrated that both models showed similar significant c-statistics (0.63 and 0.62, respectively). In conclusion, model 2 can provide a rough estimation of the 90-day survival after ALDLT.

  14. Transcriptomic and Proteomic Analysis of Arion vulgaris--Proteins for Probably Successful Survival Strategies?

    PubMed

    Bulat, Tanja; Smidak, Roman; Sialana, Fernando J; Jung, Gangsoo; Rattei, Thomas; Bilban, Martin; Sattmann, Helmut; Lubec, Gert; Aradska, Jana

    2016-01-01

    The Spanish slug, Arion vulgaris, is considered one of the hundred most invasive species in Central Europe. The immense and very successful adaptation and spreading of A. vulgaris suggest that it developed highly effective mechanisms to deal with infections and natural predators. Current transcriptomic and proteomic studies on gastropods have been restricted mainly to marine and freshwater gastropods. No transcriptomic or proteomic study on A. vulgaris has been carried out so far, and in the current study, the first transcriptomic database from adult specimen of A. vulgaris is reported. To facilitate and enable proteomics in this non-model organism, a mRNA-derived protein database was constructed for protein identification. A gel-based proteomic approach was used to obtain the first generation of a comprehensive slug mantle proteome. A total of 2128 proteins were unambiguously identified; 48 proteins represent novel proteins with no significant homology in NCBI non-redundant database. Combined transcriptomic and proteomic analysis revealed an extensive repertoire of novel proteins with a role in innate immunity including many associated pattern recognition, effector proteins and cytokine-like proteins. The number and diversity in gene families encoding lectins point to a complex defense system, probably as a result of adaptation to a pathogen-rich environment. These results are providing a fundamental and important resource for subsequent studies on molluscs as well as for putative antimicrobial compounds for drug discovery and biomedical applications. PMID:26986963

  15. Transcriptomic and Proteomic Analysis of Arion vulgaris—Proteins for Probably Successful Survival Strategies?

    PubMed Central

    Bulat, Tanja; Smidak, Roman; Sialana, Fernando J.; Jung, Gangsoo; Rattei, Thomas; Bilban, Martin; Sattmann, Helmut; Lubec, Gert; Aradska, Jana

    2016-01-01

    The Spanish slug, Arion vulgaris, is considered one of the hundred most invasive species in Central Europe. The immense and very successful adaptation and spreading of A. vulgaris suggest that it developed highly effective mechanisms to deal with infections and natural predators. Current transcriptomic and proteomic studies on gastropods have been restricted mainly to marine and freshwater gastropods. No transcriptomic or proteomic study on A. vulgaris has been carried out so far, and in the current study, the first transcriptomic database from adult specimen of A. vulgaris is reported. To facilitate and enable proteomics in this non-model organism, a mRNA-derived protein database was constructed for protein identification. A gel-based proteomic approach was used to obtain the first generation of a comprehensive slug mantle proteome. A total of 2128 proteins were unambiguously identified; 48 proteins represent novel proteins with no significant homology in NCBI non-redundant database. Combined transcriptomic and proteomic analysis revealed an extensive repertoire of novel proteins with a role in innate immunity including many associated pattern recognition, effector proteins and cytokine-like proteins. The number and diversity in gene families encoding lectins point to a complex defense system, probably as a result of adaptation to a pathogen-rich environment. These results are providing a fundamental and important resource for subsequent studies on molluscs as well as for putative antimicrobial compounds for drug discovery and biomedical applications. PMID:26986963

  16. Transcriptomic and Proteomic Analysis of Arion vulgaris--Proteins for Probably Successful Survival Strategies?

    PubMed

    Bulat, Tanja; Smidak, Roman; Sialana, Fernando J; Jung, Gangsoo; Rattei, Thomas; Bilban, Martin; Sattmann, Helmut; Lubec, Gert; Aradska, Jana

    2016-01-01

    The Spanish slug, Arion vulgaris, is considered one of the hundred most invasive species in Central Europe. The immense and very successful adaptation and spreading of A. vulgaris suggest that it developed highly effective mechanisms to deal with infections and natural predators. Current transcriptomic and proteomic studies on gastropods have been restricted mainly to marine and freshwater gastropods. No transcriptomic or proteomic study on A. vulgaris has been carried out so far, and in the current study, the first transcriptomic database from adult specimen of A. vulgaris is reported. To facilitate and enable proteomics in this non-model organism, a mRNA-derived protein database was constructed for protein identification. A gel-based proteomic approach was used to obtain the first generation of a comprehensive slug mantle proteome. A total of 2128 proteins were unambiguously identified; 48 proteins represent novel proteins with no significant homology in NCBI non-redundant database. Combined transcriptomic and proteomic analysis revealed an extensive repertoire of novel proteins with a role in innate immunity including many associated pattern recognition, effector proteins and cytokine-like proteins. The number and diversity in gene families encoding lectins point to a complex defense system, probably as a result of adaptation to a pathogen-rich environment. These results are providing a fundamental and important resource for subsequent studies on molluscs as well as for putative antimicrobial compounds for drug discovery and biomedical applications.

  17. Annual survival rates of adult and immature eastern population tundra swans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Bart, J.; Limpert, R.J.; Sladen, William J. L.; Hines, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    Tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus ) of the eastern population were neckbanded in Maryland, North Carolina, and Alaska from 1966 through 1990. These swans were resighted and recaptured during autumn, winter, and spring, 1966-1990. Although the original motivation for this study involved swan movements, we wanted to use the resulting data to test hypotheses about sources of variation in swan survival rates. Recaptures of legbanded and neckbanded swans permitted us to estimate neckband loss rates, which were found to vary with age and sex of swans, and number of years since initial application. Estimates of annual neckband retention rate ranged from about 0.50 for adult male swans greater than or equal to 2 years after initial neckbanding to > 0.96 for immature swans and adult females the first year following neckbanding. This variation in neckband loss rates prevented the simple correction of survival estimates to account for such loss. Consequently, we developed a series of multinomial models parameterized with survival, sighting, and neckband retention probabilities for use with the recapture and resighting data.

  18. Spaced-Retrieval Effects on Name-Face Recognition in Older Adults with Probable Alzheimer's Disease

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hawley, Karri S.; Cherry, Katie E.

    2004-01-01

    Six older adults with probable Alzheimers disease (AD) were trained to recall a name-face association using the spaced-retrieval method. We administered six training sessions over a 2-week period. On each trial, participants selected a target photograph and stated the target name, from eight other photographs, at increasingly longer retention…

  19. Factors affecting ventriculoperitoneal shunt survival in adult patients

    PubMed Central

    Khan, Farid; Rehman, Abdul; Shamim, Muhammad S.; Bari, Muhammad E.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt insertion remains the mainstay of treatment for hydrocephalus despite a high rate of complications. The predictors of shunt malfunction have been studied mostly in pediatric patients. In this study, we report our 11-year experience with VP shunts in adult patients with hydrocephalus. We also assess the various factors affecting shunt survival in a developing country setting. Methods: A retrospective chart analysis was conducted for all adult patients who had undergone shunt placement between the years 2001 and 2011. Kaplan–Meier curves were used to determine the duration from shunt placement to first malfunction and log-rank (Cox–Mantel) tests were used to determine the factors affecting shunt survival. Results: A total of 227 patients aged 18–85 years (mean: 45.8 years) were included in the study. The top four etiologies of hydrocephalus included post-cranial surgery (23.3%), brain tumor or cyst (22.9%), normal pressure hydrocephalus (15%), and intracranial hemorrhage (13.7%). The overall incidence of shunt malfunction was 15.4% with the median time to first shunt failure being 120 days. Etiology of hydrocephalus (P = 0.030) had a significant association with the development of shunt malfunction. Early shunt failure was associated with age (P < 0.001), duration of hospital stay (P < 0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score less than 13 (P = 0.010), excision of brain tumors (P = 0.008), and placement of extra-ventricular drains (P = 0.033). Conclusions: Patients with increased age, prolonged hospital stay, GCS score of less than 13, extra-ventricular drains in situ, or excision of brain tumors were more likely to experience early shunt malfunction. PMID:25722930

  20. A comparison of conventional capture versus PIT reader techniques for estimating survival and capture probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellison, L.E.; O'Shea, T.J.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Pearce, R.D.; Bowen, R.A.

    2007-01-01

    We compared conventional capture (primarily mist nets and harp traps) and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging techniques for estimating capture and survival probabilities of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) roosting in buildings in Fort Collins, Colorado. A total of 987 female adult and juvenile bats were captured and marked by subdermal injection of PIT tags during the summers of 2001-2005 at five maternity colonies in buildings. Openings to roosts were equipped with PIT hoop-style readers, and exit and entry of bats were passively monitored on a daily basis throughout the summers of 2002-2005. PIT readers 'recaptured' adult and juvenile females more often than conventional capture events at each roost. Estimates of annual capture probabilities for all five colonies were on average twice as high when estimated from PIT reader data (P?? = 0.93-1.00) than when derived from conventional techniques (P?? = 0.26-0.66), and as a consequence annual survival estimates were more precisely estimated when using PIT reader encounters. Short-term, daily capture estimates were also higher using PIT readers than conventional captures. We discuss the advantages and limitations of using PIT tags and passive encounters with hoop readers vs. conventional capture techniques for estimating these vital parameters in big brown bats. ?? Museum and Institute of Zoology PAS.

  1. Variations in the survival probabilities of the PVC-protected red mangrove propagules: testing the encased replanting technique.

    PubMed

    López-Ortiz, M I; Pérez, C M; Suárez, E; Ríos-Dávila, R

    1999-12-01

    The EcoEléctrica Mangrove Planting Project, a five-year voluntary effort, has the purpose of testing a recently developed mangrove planting technique at the EcoEléctrica site in Peñuelas, Puerto Rico. The goal of the project is to provide empirical validation to promote or improve the technique to be used in recovering mangrove ecosystems in Puerto Rico and United States. The research presented herein analyzed the information collected on the first two years of the project. The proportions of remaining casings and seeds per study zone were compared using the chi-square distribution. Zone 1 had the least pipes lost while Zone 4 had the most (p < 0.05). Forty-three percent of the seeds in Zone 1 remained in the casing, while 26% remained in Zone 2 (p = 0.03). Median growth rates of seeds per study zone showed that Zone 1 had the highest median growth rates. Survival analysis described the survival experience of the seeds, and differences in survival probabilities were compared with the log-rank test. Zone 1 seeds had a better survival experience compared to Zones 2, 3 and 4 (p < 0.0001). Survival probabilities for being free of spots were over 60% during the whole study period. No significant differences were observed in the survival experience with the use-or-no use of casing extensions (p = 0.40), and the use-or-no use of nursed seeds (p = 0.26). Differences in survival probabilities might be attributed to variations in wave energy, depth or substrate conditions. This hypothesis will be evaluated in the second phase of the study. PMID:10730307

  2. Survival and other observations of adult female northern pintails molting in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, M.R.; Fleskes, J.P.; Orthmeyer, D.L.; Gilmer, D.S.

    1992-01-01

    Survival rates of nine adult female Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) that became flightless after being radio-marked in the Sacramento Valley, California in August 1987-1989 were estimated. Seven of the radio-marked pintails molted in the Sacramento Valley, a nontraditional molting region, and two flew 280 km north to the Klamath Basin to molt. Molting marshes were dominated by emergent vegetation in both locations. Two ducks, while flightless in the Sacramento Valley, were killed by predators. Molting pintails remained sedentary (did not fly) for an average of 36 d, and the daily survival rate during this period was 0.9934. The resulting sedentary-period survival rate was 0.79. Primary feather 9 on two captive ducks grew an average of 4.2 mm per day. Mean body mass of molting ducks that died was lower than that for molting ducks that survived (P < 0.10). The number of pintails molting on Sacramento Valley refuges is probably <200.

  3. Sugar administration to newly emerged Aedes albopictus males increases their survival probability and mating performance.

    PubMed

    Bellini, Romeo; Puggioli, Arianna; Balestrino, Fabrizio; Brunelli, Paolo; Medici, Anna; Urbanelli, Sandra; Carrieri, Marco

    2014-04-01

    Aedes albopictus male survival in laboratory cages is no more than 4-5 days when kept without any access to sugar indicating their need to feed on a sugar source soon after emergence. We therefore developed a device to administer energetic substances to newly emerged males when released as pupae as part of a sterile insect technique (SIT) programme, made with a polyurethane sponge 4 cm thick and perforated with holes 2 cm in diameter. The sponge was imbibed with the required sugar solution and due to its high retention capacity the sugar solution was available for males to feed for at least 48 h. When evaluated in lab cages, comparing adults emerged from the device with sugar solution vs the device with water only (as negative control), about half of the males tested positive for fructose using the Van Handel anthrone test, compared to none of males in the control cage. We then tested the tool in semi-field and in field conditions with different sugar concentrations (10%, 15%, and 20%) and compared results to the controls fed with water only. Males were recaptured by a battery operated manual aspirator at 24 and 48 h after pupae release. Rather high share 10-25% of captured males tested positive for fructose in recollections in the vicinity of the control stations, while in the vicinity of the sugar stations around 40-55% of males were positive, though variability between replicates was large. The sugar positive males in the control test may have been released males that had access to natural sugar sources found close to the release station and/or wild males present in the environment. Only a slight increase in the proportion of positive males was obtained by increasing the sugar concentration in the feeding device from 10% to 20%. Surprisingly, modification of the device to add a black plastic inverted funnel above the container reduced rather than increased the proportion of fructose positive males collected around the station. No evidence of difference in the

  4. Sugar administration to newly emerged Aedes albopictus males increases their survival probability and mating performance.

    PubMed

    Bellini, Romeo; Puggioli, Arianna; Balestrino, Fabrizio; Brunelli, Paolo; Medici, Anna; Urbanelli, Sandra; Carrieri, Marco

    2014-04-01

    Aedes albopictus male survival in laboratory cages is no more than 4-5 days when kept without any access to sugar indicating their need to feed on a sugar source soon after emergence. We therefore developed a device to administer energetic substances to newly emerged males when released as pupae as part of a sterile insect technique (SIT) programme, made with a polyurethane sponge 4 cm thick and perforated with holes 2 cm in diameter. The sponge was imbibed with the required sugar solution and due to its high retention capacity the sugar solution was available for males to feed for at least 48 h. When evaluated in lab cages, comparing adults emerged from the device with sugar solution vs the device with water only (as negative control), about half of the males tested positive for fructose using the Van Handel anthrone test, compared to none of males in the control cage. We then tested the tool in semi-field and in field conditions with different sugar concentrations (10%, 15%, and 20%) and compared results to the controls fed with water only. Males were recaptured by a battery operated manual aspirator at 24 and 48 h after pupae release. Rather high share 10-25% of captured males tested positive for fructose in recollections in the vicinity of the control stations, while in the vicinity of the sugar stations around 40-55% of males were positive, though variability between replicates was large. The sugar positive males in the control test may have been released males that had access to natural sugar sources found close to the release station and/or wild males present in the environment. Only a slight increase in the proportion of positive males was obtained by increasing the sugar concentration in the feeding device from 10% to 20%. Surprisingly, modification of the device to add a black plastic inverted funnel above the container reduced rather than increased the proportion of fructose positive males collected around the station. No evidence of difference in the

  5. Survival probability of an immobile target in a sea of evanescent diffusive or subdiffusive traps: A fractional equation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abad, E.; Yuste, S. B.; Lindenberg, Katja

    2012-12-01

    We calculate the survival probability of an immobile target surrounded by a sea of uncorrelated diffusive or subdiffusive evanescent traps (i.e., traps that disappear in the course of their motion). Our calculation is based on a fractional reaction-subdiffusion equation derived from a continuous time random walk model of the system. Contrary to an earlier method valid only in one dimension (d=1), the equation is applicable in any Euclidean dimension d and elucidates the interplay between anomalous subdiffusive transport, the irreversible evanescence reaction, and the dimension in which both the traps and the target are embedded. Explicit results for the survival probability of the target are obtained for a density ρ(t) of traps which decays (i) exponentially and (ii) as a power law. In the former case, the target has a finite asymptotic survival probability in all integer dimensions, whereas in the latter case there are several regimes where the values of the decay exponent for ρ(t) and the anomalous diffusion exponent of the traps determine whether or not the target has a chance of eternal survival in one, two, and three dimensions.

  6. Overwintering Survival of Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae) and the Effect of Food on Adult Survival in California's San Joaquin Valley.

    PubMed

    Kaçar, Gülay; Wang, Xin-Geng; Stewart, Thomas J; Daane, Kent M

    2016-08-01

    The overwintering survival and development of Drosophila suzukii Matsumura were investigated in California's San Joaquin Valley. Drosophila suzukii were exposed to overwintering conditions in cages hung in a citrus orchard, and the pupae were buried in the soil. Eggs exposed from late November to January did not survive; a low percentage (<3%) of larvae and pupae developed into adults. Survival of pupae was significantly higher when buried in the soil than on the citrus tree. From late January to March, all life stages developed into adults and overwintered adult female D. suzukii produced eggs when provided with 10% honey-water and sliced oranges. Adult survival varied among fruit juice provision treatments and overwintering exposure periods, ranging from 3.4 ± 0.9 d (water) to 44.1 ± 3.0 d (10% honey-water). Fruit juices of apple, cherry, grape, orange, and pomegranate were tested as adult food sources; results showed that adult female and male D. suzukii lived only 2 d with water only, whereas adults survived from 14.2 to 34.8 d with fruit juice treatments and the 10% honey-water control. An unexpected event was the oviposition and immature development of D. suzukii with the fruit juice. In a follow-up laboratory trial, when 10% honey-water or orange juice were provided along with an artificial diet for oviposition and immature development, female D. suzukii survived for 21.6 ± 2.4 or 21.6 ± 1.5 d, and produced 106.8 ± 14.1 or 98.5 ± 13.1 offspring, respectively. We discuss factors potentially influencing overwintering survival of D. suzukii. PMID:26654917

  7. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  8. The BFKL pomeron calculus in zero transverse dimensions: Diffractive processes and survival probability for central diffractive production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozlov, M.; Levin, E.; Khachatryan, V.; Miller, J.

    2007-07-01

    In this paper we discuss the processes of diffractive production in the framework of the BFKL pomeron calculus in zero transverse dimension. Considering the diffractive production of a bunch of particles with not very large masses, namely, ln(M/m)≪1/αln(Nc2α¯S2), we found explicit formulae for calculation of the cross sections for the single and double diffractive production as well as for the value of the survival probability for the diffractive central production. These formulae include the influence of the correlations due to so-called pomeron loops on the values of all discussed observables. The comparison with the other approaches on the market is given. The main conclusion of this comparison: the Mueller-Patel-Salam-Iancu approximation gives sufficiently good descriptions and close to the exact result for elastic and diffractive cross section but considerable overshoot the value of the survival probability.

  9. A dynamic Bayesian network approach for time-specific survival probability prediction in patients after ventricular assist device implantation.

    PubMed

    Exarchos, Themis P; Rigas, George; Goletsis, Yorgos; Stefanou, Kostas; Jacobs, Steven; Trivella, Maria-Giovanna; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I

    2014-01-01

    In this work we present a decision support tool for the calculation of time-dependent survival probability for patients after ventricular assist device implantation. Two different models have been developed, a short term one which predicts survival for the first three months and a long term one that predicts survival for one year after implantation. In order to model the time dependencies between the different time slices of the problem, a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) approach has been employed. DBNs order to capture the temporal events of the patient disease and the temporal data availability. High accuracy results have been reported for both models. The short and long term DBNs reached an accuracy of 96.97% and 93.55% respectively. PMID:25570664

  10. Predictors of the new criteria for probable PTSD among older adults.

    PubMed

    Palgi, Yuval

    2015-12-30

    The definition of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) changed in the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-5) and it is yet unclear how these changes affect the diagnosis of PTSD among older adults. The present study examined the contribution of demographic characteristics, functioning status, health related factors, as well as exposure to rocket attacks to prediction of probable PTSD in older adults. Three-hundred and thirty-nine community-dwelling adults (age range 50-90; M=65.44, SD=9.77) were sampled through random dialing to Jewish residents in the south of Israel. Participants completed a phone-questionnaire that collected background information and reports of relevant symptoms. Analyses showed that self-rated health, incidence of depression episodes, and exposure to rocket attacks predicted the DSM-5 definition of PTSD as well as the subscale of negative alternations in cognition and mood. The current study delineates the unique set of predictors of probable PTSD in older adults, with an emphasis on negative alternations in cognition and mood. Greater attention to unique predictors of PTSD in the second half of life is called for.

  11. Predictors of the new criteria for probable PTSD among older adults.

    PubMed

    Palgi, Yuval

    2015-12-30

    The definition of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) changed in the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-5) and it is yet unclear how these changes affect the diagnosis of PTSD among older adults. The present study examined the contribution of demographic characteristics, functioning status, health related factors, as well as exposure to rocket attacks to prediction of probable PTSD in older adults. Three-hundred and thirty-nine community-dwelling adults (age range 50-90; M=65.44, SD=9.77) were sampled through random dialing to Jewish residents in the south of Israel. Participants completed a phone-questionnaire that collected background information and reports of relevant symptoms. Analyses showed that self-rated health, incidence of depression episodes, and exposure to rocket attacks predicted the DSM-5 definition of PTSD as well as the subscale of negative alternations in cognition and mood. The current study delineates the unique set of predictors of probable PTSD in older adults, with an emphasis on negative alternations in cognition and mood. Greater attention to unique predictors of PTSD in the second half of life is called for. PMID:26586141

  12. Biophysical calculation of cell survival probabilities using amorphous track structure models for heavy-ion irradiation.

    PubMed

    Kase, Yuki; Kanai, Tatsuaki; Matsufuji, Naruhiro; Furusawa, Yoshiya; Elsässer, Thilo; Scholz, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Both the microdosimetric kinetic model (MKM) and the local effect model (LEM) can be used to calculate the surviving fraction of cells irradiated by high-energy ion beams. In this study, amorphous track structure models instead of the stochastic energy deposition are used for the MKM calculation, and it is found that the MKM calculation is useful for predicting the survival curves of the mammalian cells in vitro for (3)He-, (12)C- and (20)Ne-ion beams. The survival curves are also calculated by two different implementations of the LEM, which inherently used an amorphous track structure model. The results calculated in this manner show good agreement with the experimental results especially for the modified LEM. These results are compared to those calculated by the MKM. Comparison of the two models reveals that both models require three basic constituents: target geometry, photon survival curve and track structure, although the implementation of each model is significantly different. In the context of the amorphous track structure model, the difference between the MKM and LEM is primarily the result of different approaches calculating the biological effects of the extremely high local dose in the center of the ion track. PMID:18182686

  13. Adaptive Memory: Survival Processing Increases Both True and False Memory in Adults and Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otgaar, Henry; Smeets, Tom

    2010-01-01

    Research has shown that processing information in a survival context can enhance the information's memorability. The current study examined whether survival processing can also decrease the susceptibility to false memories and whether the survival advantage can be found in children. In Experiment 1, adults rated semantically related words in a…

  14. One step forward: contrasting the effects of Toe clipping and PIT tagging on frog survival and recapture probability.

    PubMed

    Guimarães, Murilo; Corrêa, Décio T; Filho, Sérgio S; Oliveira, Thiago A L; Doherty, Paul F; Sawaya, Ricardo J

    2014-04-01

    Amphibians have been declining worldwide and the comprehension of the threats that they face could be improved by using mark-recapture models to estimate vital rates of natural populations. Recently, the consequences of marking amphibians have been under discussion and the effects of toe clipping on survival are debatable, although it is still the most common technique for individually identifying amphibians. The passive integrated transponder (PIT tag) is an alternative technique, but comparisons among marking techniques in free-ranging populations are still lacking. We compared these two marking techniques using mark-recapture models to estimate apparent survival and recapture probability of a neotropical population of the blacksmith tree frog, Hypsiboas faber. We tested the effects of marking technique and number of toe pads removed while controlling for sex. Survival was similar among groups, although slightly decreased from individuals with one toe pad removed, to individuals with two and three toe pads removed, and finally to PIT-tagged individuals. No sex differences were detected. Recapture probability slightly increased with the number of toe pads removed and was the lowest for PIT-tagged individuals. Sex was an important predictor for recapture probability, with males being nearly five times more likely to be recaptured. Potential negative effects of both techniques may include reduced locomotion and high stress levels. We recommend the use of covariates in models to better understand the effects of marking techniques on frogs. Accounting for the effect of the technique on the results should be considered, because most techniques may reduce survival. Based on our results, but also on logistical and cost issues associated with PIT tagging, we suggest the use of toe clipping with anurans like the blacksmith tree frog. PMID:24834342

  15. One step forward: contrasting the effects of Toe clipping and PIT tagging on frog survival and recapture probability

    PubMed Central

    Guimarães, Murilo; Corrêa, Décio T; Filho, Sérgio S; Oliveira, Thiago A L; Doherty, Paul F; Sawaya, Ricardo J

    2014-01-01

    Amphibians have been declining worldwide and the comprehension of the threats that they face could be improved by using mark–recapture models to estimate vital rates of natural populations. Recently, the consequences of marking amphibians have been under discussion and the effects of toe clipping on survival are debatable, although it is still the most common technique for individually identifying amphibians. The passive integrated transponder (PIT tag) is an alternative technique, but comparisons among marking techniques in free-ranging populations are still lacking. We compared these two marking techniques using mark–recapture models to estimate apparent survival and recapture probability of a neotropical population of the blacksmith tree frog, Hypsiboas faber. We tested the effects of marking technique and number of toe pads removed while controlling for sex. Survival was similar among groups, although slightly decreased from individuals with one toe pad removed, to individuals with two and three toe pads removed, and finally to PIT-tagged individuals. No sex differences were detected. Recapture probability slightly increased with the number of toe pads removed and was the lowest for PIT-tagged individuals. Sex was an important predictor for recapture probability, with males being nearly five times more likely to be recaptured. Potential negative effects of both techniques may include reduced locomotion and high stress levels. We recommend the use of covariates in models to better understand the effects of marking techniques on frogs. Accounting for the effect of the technique on the results should be considered, because most techniques may reduce survival. Based on our results, but also on logistical and cost issues associated with PIT tagging, we suggest the use of toe clipping with anurans like the blacksmith tree frog. PMID:24834342

  16. Conditional Probability of Survival Nomogram for 1-, 2-, and 3-Year Survivors After an R0 Resection for Gastric Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Dikken, Johan L.; Baser, Raymond E.; Gonen, Mithat; Kattan, Michael W.; Shah, Manish A.; Verheij, Marcel; van de Velde, Cornelis J. H.; Brennan, Murray F.; Coit, Daniel G.

    2014-01-01

    Background Survival estimates after curative surgery for gastric cancer are based on AJCC staging, or on more accurate multivariable nomograms. However, the risk of dying of gastric cancer is not constant over time, with most deaths occurring in the first 2 years after resection. Therefore, the prognosis for a patient who survives this critical period improves. This improvement over time is termed conditional probability of survival (CPS). Objectives of this study were to develop a CPS nomogram predicting 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) from the day of surgery for patients surviving a specified period of time after a curative gastrectomy and to explore whether variables available with follow-up improve the nomogram in the follow-up setting. Methods A CPS nomogram was developed from a combined US-Dutch dataset, containing 1,642 patients who underwent an R0 resection with or without chemotherapy/ radiotherapy for gastric cancer. Weight loss, performance status, hemoglobin, and albumin 1 year after resection were added to the baseline variables of this nomogram. Results The CPS nomogram was highly discriminating (concordance index: 0.772). Surviving 1, 2, or 3 years gives a median improvement of 5-year DSS from surgery of 7.2, 19.1, and 31.6 %, compared with the baseline prediction directly after surgery. Introduction of variables available at 1-year follow-up did not improve the nomogram. Conclusions A robust gastric cancer nomogram was developed to predict survival for patients alive at time points after surgery. Introduction of additional variables available after 1 year of follow-up did not further improve this nomogram. PMID:23143591

  17. Intraseasonal variation in survival and probable causes of mortality in greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Blomberg, Erik J.; Gibson, Daniel; Sedinger, James S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.

    2013-01-01

    The mortality process is a key component of avian population dynamics, and understanding factors that affect mortality is central to grouse conservation. Populations of greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus have declined across their range in western North America. We studied cause-specific mortality of radio-marked sage-grouse in Eureka County, Nevada, USA, during two seasons, nesting (2008-2012) and fall (2008-2010), when survival was known to be lower compared to other times of the year. We used known-fate and cumulative incidence function models to estimate weekly survival rates and cumulative risk of cause-specific mortalities, respectively. These methods allowed us to account for temporal variation in sample size and staggered entry of marked individuals into the sample to obtain robust estimates of survival and cause-specific mortality. We monitored 376 individual sage-grouse during the course of our study, and investigated 87 deaths. Predation was the major source of mortality, and accounted for 90% of all mortalities during our study. During the nesting season (1 April - 31 May), the cumulative risk of predation by raptors (0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.16) and mammals (0.08; 95% CI: 0.03-013) was relatively equal. In the fall (15 August - 31 October), the cumulative risk of mammal predation was greater (M(mam) = 0.12; 95% CI: 0.04-0.19) than either predation by raptors (M(rap) = 0.05; 95% CI: 0.00-0.10) or hunting harvest (M(hunt) = 0.02; 95% CI: 0.0-0.06). During both seasons, we observed relatively few additional sources of mortality (e.g. collision) and observed no evidence of disease-related mortality (e.g. West Nile Virus). In general, we found little evidence for intraseasonal temporal variation in survival, suggesting that the nesting and fall seasons represent biologically meaningful time intervals with respect to sage-grouse survival.

  18. A method for estimating fall adult sex ratios from production and survival data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wight, H.M.; Heath, R.G.; Geis, A.D.

    1965-01-01

    This paper presents a method of utilizing data relating to the production and survival of a bird population to estimate a basic fall adult sex ratio. This basic adult sex ratio is an average value derived from average production and survival rates. It is an estimate of the average sex ratio about which the fall adult ratios will fluctuate according to annual variations in production and survival. The basic fall adult sex ratio has been calculated as an asymptotic value which is the limit of an infinite series wherein average population characteristics are used as constants. Graphs are provided that allow the determination of basic sex ratios from production and survival data of a population. Where the respective asymptote has been determined, it may be possible to estimate various production and survival rates by use of variations of the formula for estimating the asymptote.

  19. MORBIDITY AND SURVIVAL PROBABILITY IN BURN PATIENTS IN MODERN BURN CARE

    PubMed Central

    Jeschke, Marc G.; Pinto, Ruxandra; Kraft, Robert; Nathens, Avery B.; Finnerty, Celeste C.; Gamelli, Richard L.; Gibran, Nicole S.; Klein, Matthew B.; Arnoldo, Brett D.; Tompkins, Ronald G.; Herndon, David N.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Characterizing burn sizes that are associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity is critical because it would allow identifying patients who might derive the greatest benefit from individualized, experimental, or innovative therapies. Although scores have been established to predict mortality, few data addressing other outcomes exist. The objective of this study was to determine burn sizes that are associated with increased mortality and morbidity after burn. Design and Patients Burn patients were prospectively enrolled as part of the multicenter prospective cohort study, Inflammation and the Host Response to Injury Glue Grant, with the following inclusion criteria: 0–99 years of age, admission within 96 hours after injury, and >20% total body surface area burns requiring at least one surgical intervention. Setting Six major burn centers in North America. Measurements and Main Results Burn size cutoff values were determined for mortality, burn wound infection (at least two infections), sepsis (as defined by ABA sepsis criteria), pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and multiple organ failure (DENVER2 score >3) for both children (<16 years) and adults (16–65 years). Five-hundred seventy-three patients were enrolled, of which 226 patients were children. Twenty-three patients were older than 65 years and were excluded from the cutoff analysis. In children, the cutoff burn size for mortality, sepsis, infection, and multiple organ failure was approximately 60% total body surface area burned. In adults, the cutoff for these outcomes was lower, at approximately 40% total body surface area burned. Conclusions In the modern burn care setting, adults with over 40% total body surface area burned and children with over 60% total body surface area burned are at high risk for morbidity and mortality, even in highly specialized centers. PMID:25559438

  20. More than words: Adults learn probabilities over categories and relationships between them

    PubMed Central

    Hudson Kam, Carla L.

    2009-01-01

    This study examines whether human learners can acquire statistics over abstract categories and their relationships to each other. Adult learners were exposed to miniature artificial languages containing variation in the ordering of the Subject, Object, and Verb constituents. Different orders (e.g. SOV, VSO) occurred in the input with different frequencies, but the occurrence of one order versus another was not predictable. Importantly, the language was constructed such that participants could only match the overall input probabilities if they were tracking statistics over abstract categories, not over individual words. At test, participants reproduced the probabilities present in the input with a high degree of accuracy. Closer examination revealed that learner’s were matching the probabilities associated with individual verbs rather than the category as a whole. However, individual nouns had no impact on word orders produced. Thus, participants learned the probabilities of a particular ordering of the abstract grammatical categories Subject and Object associated with each verb. Results suggest that statistical learning mechanisms are capable of tracking relationships between abstract linguistic categories in addition to individual items. PMID:20161375

  1. Predicting the probability of abortion in dairy cows: a hierarchical Bayesian logistic-survival model using sequential pregnancy data.

    PubMed

    Thurmond, M C; Branscum, A J; Johnson, W O; Bedrick, E J; Hanson, T E

    2005-05-10

    Although abortion contributes substantially to poor reproductive health of dairy herds, little is known about the predictability of abortion based on age, previous abortion or gravidity (number of previous pregnancies). A poor understanding of effects of maternal factors on abortion risk exists, in part, because of methodological difficulties related to non-independence of multiple pregnancies of the same cow in analysis of fetal survival data. We prospectively examined sequential pregnancies to investigate relationships between fetal survival and putative dam risk factors for 2991 abortions from 24,706 pregnancies of 13,145 cows in nine California dairy herds. Relative risks and predicted probabilities of abortion (PPA) were estimated using a previously described hierarchical Bayesian logistic-survival model generalized to incorporate longitudinal data of multiple pregnancies from a single cow. The PPA increased with increasing dam age at conception, with increasing number of previous abortions, and if the previous pregnancy was aborted >60 days in gestation. The PPA decreased with increasing gravidity and with increasing number of days open. For cows that aborted, the median time to fetal death decreased slightly as gravidity increased. The study considers several methodological issues faced in epidemiologic investigations of fetal health, including multi-modal hazard functions, extensive censoring and non-independence of multiple pregnancies. The model improves our ability to predict bovine abortion and to characterize fetal survival, which have important applications to herd health management.

  2. SynCAM 1 improves survival of adult-born neurons by accelerating synapse maturation.

    PubMed

    Doengi, Michael; Krupp, Alexander J; Körber, Nils; Stein, Valentin

    2016-03-01

    The survival of adult-born dentate gyrus granule cells critically depends on their synaptic integration into the existing neuronal network. Excitatory inputs are thought to increase the survival rate of adult born neurons. Therefore, whether enhancing the stability of newly formed excitatory synapses by overexpressing the synaptic cell adhesion molecule SynCAM 1 improves the survival of adult-born neurons was tested. Here it is shown that overexpression of SynCAM 1 improves survival of adult-born neurons, but has no effect on the proliferation rate of precursor cells. As expected, overexpression of SynCAM 1 increased the synapse density in adult-born granule neurons. While adult-born granule neurons have very few functional synapses 15 days after birth, it was found that at this age adult-born neurons in SynCAM 1 overexpressing mice exhibited around three times more excitatory synapses, which were stronger than synapses of adult-born neurons of control littermates. In summary, the data indicated that additional SynCAM 1 accelerated synapse maturation, which improved the stability of newly formed synapses and in turn increased the likelihood of survival of adult-born neurons.

  3. Interaction Cross Sections and Survival Probabilities for Proposed Solar System Member Planet Nine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, Fred C.; Li, Gongjie

    2016-05-01

    Motivated by the report of a possible new planetary member of the Solar System, this work calculates cross sections for interactions between passing stars and this proposed Planet Nine. Evidence for the new planet is provided by the orbital alignment of Kuiper Belt objects, and other Solar System properties, which suggest a Neptune-mass object on an eccentric orbit with semimajor axis \\anine = 400 - 1500 AU. With such a wide orbit, Planet Nine has a large interaction cross section, and is susceptible to disruption by passing stars. Using a large ensemble of numerical simulations, and Monte Carlo sampling, we calculate the cross sections for different classes of orbit-altering events: [A] scattering the planet into its proposed orbit from a smaller orbit, [B] ejecting it from the Solar System from its current orbit, [C] capturing the planet from another system, and [D] capturing a free-floating planet. Results are presented for a range of orbital elements with planetary mass of 10 Earth masses. Removing Planet Nine from the Solar System is the most likely outcome. Specifically, we obtain ejection cross sections σ=4.2×10^6 AU^2 (4.3×10^4 AU^2) for environments corresponding to the birth cluster (field). With these cross sections, Planet Nine is likely to be ejected if the Sun resides within its birth cluster longer than Δ{t} > 100 Myr. The probability of ejecting Planet Nine due to passing field stars is of order 1 percent over the age of the Sun. Probabilities for producing the inferred Planet Nine orbit are comparable (a few percent).

  4. Survival improvements in adolescents and young adults after myeloablative allogeneic transplantation for acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Wood, William A; Lee, Stephanie J; Brazauskas, Ruta; Wang, Zhiwei; Aljurf, Mahmoud D; Ballen, Karen K; Buchbinder, David K; Dehn, Jason; Freytes, Cesar O; Lazarus, Hillard M; Lemaistre, Charles F; Mehta, Paulette; Szwajcer, David; Joffe, Steven; Majhail, Navneet S

    2014-06-01

    Adolescents and young adults (AYAs, ages 15 to 40 years) with cancer have not experienced survival improvements to the same extent as younger and older patients. We compared changes in survival after myeloablative allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) among children (n = 981), AYAs (n = 1218), and older adults (n = 469) who underwent transplantation over 3 time periods: 1990 to 1995, 1996 to 2001, and 2002 to 2007. Five-year survival varied inversely with age group. Survival improved over time in AYAs and paralleled that seen in children; however, overall survival did not change over time for older adults. Survival improvements were primarily related to lower rates of early treatment-related mortality in the most recent era. For all cohorts, relapse rates did not change over time. A subset of 222 AYAs between the ages of 15 and 25 at 46 pediatric or 49 adult centers were also analyzed to describe differences by center type. In this subgroup, there were differences in transplantation practices among pediatric and adult centers, although HCT outcomes did not differ by center type. Survival for AYAs undergoing myeloablative allogeneic HCT for ALL improved at a similar rate as survival for children. PMID:24607554

  5. The Rate of Osmotic Downshock Determines the Survival Probability of Bacterial Mechanosensitive Channel Mutants

    PubMed Central

    Bialecka-Fornal, Maja; Lee, Heun Jin

    2014-01-01

    Mechanosensitive (MS) channels allow cells to sense and respond to environmental changes. In bacteria, these channels are believed to protect against an osmotic shock. The physiological function of these channels has been characterized primarily by a standardized assay, where aliquots of batch-cultured cells are rapidly pipetted into a hypotonic medium. Under this method, it has been inferred many types of MS channels (MscS homologs in Escherichia coli) demonstrate limited effectiveness against shock, typically rescuing less than 10% of the cells when expressed at native levels. We introduce a single-cell-based assay which allows us to control how fast the osmolarity changes, over time scales ranging from a fraction of a second to several minutes. We find that the protection provided by MS channels depends strongly on the rate of osmotic change, revealing that, under a slow enough osmotic drop, MscS homologs can lead to survival rates comparable to those found in wild-type strains. Further, after the osmotic downshift, we observe multiple death phenotypes, which are inconsistent with the prevailing paradigm of how cells lyse. Both of these findings require a reevaluation of our basic understanding of the physiology of MS channels. PMID:25349158

  6. Comparison of survival of adolescents and young adults with hematologic malignancies in Osaka, Japan.

    PubMed

    Nakata-Yamada, Kayo; Inoue, Masami; Ioka, Akiko; Ito, Yuri; Tabuchi, Takahiro; Miyashiro, Isao; Masaie, Hiroaki; Ishikawa, Jun; Hino, Masayuki; Tsukuma, Hideaki

    2016-01-01

    The survival gap between adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with hematological malignancies persists in many countries. To determine to what extent it does in Japan, we investigated survival and treatment regimens in 211 Japanese AYAs (15-29 years) in the Osaka Cancer Registry diagnosed during 2001-2005 with hematological malignancies, and compared adolescents (15-19 years) with young adults (20-29 years). AYAs with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) had a poor 5-year survival (44%), particularly young adults (29% vs. 64% in adolescents, p = 0.01). Additional investigation for patients with ALL revealed that only 19% of young adults were treated with pediatric treatment regimens compared with 45% of adolescents (p = 0.05). Our data indicate that we need to focus on young adults with ALL and to consider establishing appropriate cancer care system and guidelines for them in Japan.

  7. Pneumococcal disease in HIV-infected Malawian adults: acute mortality and long-term survival

    PubMed Central

    Gordon, Stephen B.; Chaponda, Mas; Walsh, Amanda L.; Whitty, Christopher J.M.; Gordon, Melita A.; Machili, C. Edward; Gilks, Charles F.; Boeree, Martin J.; Kampondeni, Sam; Read, Robert C.; Molyneux, Malcolm E.

    2016-01-01

    Objective HIV-infected patients in Africa are vulnerable to severe recurrent infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae, but no effective preventive strategy has been developed. We set out to determine which factors influence in-hospital mortality and long-term survival of Malawians with invasive pneumococcal disease. Design, setting and patients Acute clinical features, inpatient mortality and long-term survival were described among consecutively admitted hospital patients with S. pneumoniae in the blood or cerebrospinal fluid. Factors associated with inpatient mortality were determined, and patients surviving to discharge were followed to determine their long-term outcome. Results A total of 217 patients with pneumococcal disease were studied over an 18-month period. Among these, 158 out of 167 consenting to testing (95%) were HIV positive. Inpatient mortality was 65% for pneumococcal meningitis (n = 64), 20% for pneumococcaemic pneumonia (n = 92), 26% for patients with pneumococcaemia without localizing signs (n = 43), and 76% in patients with probable meningitis (n = 17). Lowered consciousness level, hypotension, and age exceeding 55 years at presentation were associated with inpatient death, but not long-term outcome in survivors. Hospital survivors were followed for a median of 414 days; 39% died in the community during the study period. Outpatient death was associated with multilobar chest signs, oral candidiasis, and severe anaemia as an inpatient. Conclusion Most patients with pneumococcal disease in Malawi have HIV co-infection. They have severe disease with a high mortality rate. At discharge, all HIV-infected adults have a poor prognosis but patients with multilobar chest signs or anaemia are at particular risk. PMID:12131218

  8. Survival of European children and young adults with cancer diagnosed 1995-2002.

    PubMed

    Gatta, Gemma; Zigon, Giulia; Capocaccia, Riccardo; Coebergh, Jan Willem; Desandes, Emmanuel; Kaatsch, Peter; Pastore, Guido; Peris-Bonet, Rafael; Stiller, Charles A

    2009-04-01

    This study analyses survival in 40,392 children (age 0-14 years) and 30,187 adolescents/young adults (age 15-24 years) diagnosed with cancer between 1995 and 2002. The cases were from 83 European population-based cancer registries in 23 countries participating in EUROCARE-4. Five-year survival in countries and in regional groupings of countries was compared for all cancers combined and for major cancers. Survival for 15 rare cancers in children was also analysed. Five-year survival for all cancers combined was 81% in children and 87% in adolescents/young adults. Between-country survival differences narrowed for both children and adolescents/young adults. Relative risk of death reduced significantly, by 8% in children and by 13% in adolescents/young adults, from 1995-1999 to 2000-2002. Survival improved significantly over time for acute lymphoid leukaemia and primitive neuroectodermal tumours in children and for non-Hodgkin lymphoma in adolescents/young adults. Cancer survival in patients <25 years is poorly documented in Eastern European countries. Complete cancer registration should be a priority for these countries as an essential part of a policy for effective cancer control in Europe.

  9. Beyond Survival: Curriculum Models for Senior Adult Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bramwell, R. D.

    1992-01-01

    Rather than Tyler-style transmission models, process or transaction models are more appropriate for teaching older adults. Whereas Tyler models focus on achieving rigidly defined objectives, process models view education as activities worthwhile in themselves. (SK)

  10. Effects of yearling, juvenile and adult survival on reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) demography

    PubMed Central

    van der Ouderaa, Isabelle B.C.; Tibiriçá, Yara

    2016-01-01

    Background The trade in manta ray gill plates has considerably increased over the last two decades. The resulting increases in ray mortality, in addition to mortality caused by by-catch, has caused many ray populations to decrease in size. The aim of this study was to ascertain how yearling and juvenile growth and survival, and adult survival and reproduction affect reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) population change, to increase our understanding of manta ray demography and thereby improve conservation research and measures for these fish. Methods We developed a population projection model for reef manta rays, and used published life history data on yearling and juvenile growth and adult reproduction to parameterise the model. Because little is known about reef manta ray yearling and juvenile survival, we conducted our analyses using a range of plausible survival rate values for yearlings, juveniles and adults. Results The model accurately captured observed variation in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time in different reef manta ray populations. Our demographic analyses revealed a range of population consequences in response to variation in demographic rates. For example, an increase in yearling or adult survival rates always elicited greater responses in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time than the same increase in juvenile survival rate. The population growth rate increased linearly, but lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time increased at an accelerating rate with increasing yearling or adult survival rates. Hence, even a small increase in survival rate could increase lifetime reproductive success by one pup, and cohort generation time by several years. Elasticity analyses revealed that, depending on survival rate values of all life stages, the population growth rate is either most sensitive to changes in the rate with which juveniles survive but stay

  11. Effects of yearling, juvenile and adult survival on reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) demography

    PubMed Central

    van der Ouderaa, Isabelle B.C.; Tibiriçá, Yara

    2016-01-01

    Background The trade in manta ray gill plates has considerably increased over the last two decades. The resulting increases in ray mortality, in addition to mortality caused by by-catch, has caused many ray populations to decrease in size. The aim of this study was to ascertain how yearling and juvenile growth and survival, and adult survival and reproduction affect reef manta ray (Manta alfredi) population change, to increase our understanding of manta ray demography and thereby improve conservation research and measures for these fish. Methods We developed a population projection model for reef manta rays, and used published life history data on yearling and juvenile growth and adult reproduction to parameterise the model. Because little is known about reef manta ray yearling and juvenile survival, we conducted our analyses using a range of plausible survival rate values for yearlings, juveniles and adults. Results The model accurately captured observed variation in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time in different reef manta ray populations. Our demographic analyses revealed a range of population consequences in response to variation in demographic rates. For example, an increase in yearling or adult survival rates always elicited greater responses in population growth rate, lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time than the same increase in juvenile survival rate. The population growth rate increased linearly, but lifetime reproductive success and cohort generation time increased at an accelerating rate with increasing yearling or adult survival rates. Hence, even a small increase in survival rate could increase lifetime reproductive success by one pup, and cohort generation time by several years. Elasticity analyses revealed that, depending on survival rate values of all life stages, the population growth rate is either most sensitive to changes in the rate with which juveniles survive but stay

  12. Optimizing Survival Outcomes For Adult Patients With Nontraumatic Cardiac Arrest.

    PubMed

    Jung, Julianna

    2016-10-01

    Patient survival after cardiac arrest can be improved significantly with prompt and effective resuscitative care. This systematic review analyzes the basic life support factors that improve survival outcome, including chest compression technique and rapid defibrillation of shockable rhythms. For patients who are successfully resuscitated, comprehensive postresuscitation care is essential. Targeted temperature management is recommended for all patients who remain comatose, in addition to careful monitoring of oxygenation, hemodynamics, and cardiac rhythm. Management of cardiac arrest in circumstances such as pregnancy, pulmonary embolism, opioid overdose and other toxicologic causes, hypothermia, and coronary ischemia are also reviewed.

  13. Precambrian animal life: probable developmental and adult cnidarian forms from Southwest China.

    PubMed

    Chen, Jun-Yuan; Oliveri, Paola; Gao, Feng; Dornbos, Stephen Q; Li, Chia-Wei; Bottjer, David J; Davidson, Eric H

    2002-08-01

    The evolutionary divergence of cnidarian and bilaterian lineages from their remote metazoan ancestor occurred at an unknown depth in time before the Cambrian, since crown group representatives of each are found in Lower Cambrian fossil assemblages. We report here a variety of putative embryonic, larval, and adult microfossils deriving from Precambrian phosphorite deposits of Southwest China, which may predate the Cambrian radiation by 25-45 million years. These are most probably of cnidarian affinity. Large numbers of fossilized early planula-like larvae were observed under the microscope in sections. Though several forms are represented, the majority display remarkable conformity, which is inconsistent with the alternative that they are artifactual mineral inclusions. Some of these fossils are preserved in such high resolution that individual cells can be discerned. We confirm in detail an earlier report of the presence in the same deposits of tabulates, an extinct crown group anthozoan form. Other sections reveal structures that most closely resemble sections of basal modern corals. A large number of fossils similar to modern hydrozoan gastrulae were also observed. These again displayed great morphological consistency. Though only a single example is available, a microscopic animal remarkably similar to a modern adult hydrozoan is also presented. Taken together, the new observations reported in this paper indicate the existence of a diverse and already differentiated cnidarian fauna, long before the Cambrian evolutionary event. It follows that at least stem group bilaterians must also have been present at this time.

  14. Violence victimization after HIV infection in a US probability sample of adult patients in primary care.

    PubMed Central

    Zierler, S; Cunningham, W E; Andersen, R; Shapiro, M F; Nakazono, T; Morton, S; Crystal, S; Stein, M; Turner, B; St Clair, P; Bozzette, S A

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This study estimated the proportion of HIV-infected adults who have been assaulted by a partner or someone important to them since their HIV diagnosis and the extent to which they reported HIV-seropositive status as a cause of the violence. METHODS: Study participants were from a nationally representative probability sample of 2864 HIV-infected adults who were receiving medical care and were enrolled in the HIV Costs and Service Utilization Study. All interviews (91% in person, 9% by telephone) were conducted with computer-assisted personal interviewing instruments. Interviews began in January 1996 and ended 15 months later. RESULTS: Overall, 20.5% of the women, 11.5% of the men who reported having sex with men, and 7.5% of the heterosexual men reported physical harm since diagnosis, of whom nearly half reported HIV-seropositive status as a cause of violent episodes. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-related care is an appropriate setting for routine assessment of violence. Programs to cross-train staff in antiviolence agencies and HIV care facilities need to be developed for men and women with HIV infection. PMID:10667181

  15. Precambrian animal life: probable developmental and adult cnidarian forms from Southwest China

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Jun-Yuan; Oliveri, Paola; Gao, Feng; Dornbos, Stephen Q.; Li, Chia-Wei; Bottjer, David J.; Davidson, Eric H.

    2002-01-01

    The evolutionary divergence of cnidarian and bilaterian lineages from their remote metazoan ancestor occurred at an unknown depth in time before the Cambrian, since crown group representatives of each are found in Lower Cambrian fossil assemblages. We report here a variety of putative embryonic, larval, and adult microfossils deriving from Precambrian phosphorite deposits of Southwest China, which may predate the Cambrian radiation by 25-45 million years. These are most probably of cnidarian affinity. Large numbers of fossilized early planula-like larvae were observed under the microscope in sections. Though several forms are represented, the majority display remarkable conformity, which is inconsistent with the alternative that they are artifactual mineral inclusions. Some of these fossils are preserved in such high resolution that individual cells can be discerned. We confirm in detail an earlier report of the presence in the same deposits of tabulates, an extinct crown group anthozoan form. Other sections reveal structures that most closely resemble sections of basal modern corals. A large number of fossils similar to modern hydrozoan gastrulae were also observed. These again displayed great morphological consistency. Though only a single example is available, a microscopic animal remarkably similar to a modern adult hydrozoan is also presented. Taken together, the new observations reported in this paper indicate the existence of a diverse and already differentiated cnidarian fauna, long before the Cambrian evolutionary event. It follows that at least stem group bilaterians must also have been present at this time.

  16. Model assembly for estimating cell surviving fraction for both targeted and nontargeted effects based on microdosimetric probability densities.

    PubMed

    Sato, Tatsuhiko; Hamada, Nobuyuki

    2014-01-01

    We here propose a new model assembly for estimating the surviving fraction of cells irradiated with various types of ionizing radiation, considering both targeted and nontargeted effects in the same framework. The probability densities of specific energies in two scales, which are the cell nucleus and its substructure called a domain, were employed as the physical index for characterizing the radiation fields. In the model assembly, our previously established double stochastic microdosimetric kinetic (DSMK) model was used to express the targeted effect, whereas a newly developed model was used to express the nontargeted effect. The radioresistance caused by overexpression of anti-apoptotic protein Bcl-2 known to frequently occur in human cancer was also considered by introducing the concept of the adaptive response in the DSMK model. The accuracy of the model assembly was examined by comparing the computationally and experimentally determined surviving fraction of Bcl-2 cells (Bcl-2 overexpressing HeLa cells) and Neo cells (neomycin resistant gene-expressing HeLa cells) irradiated with microbeam or broadbeam of energetic heavy ions, as well as the WI-38 normal human fibroblasts irradiated with X-ray microbeam. The model assembly reproduced very well the experimentally determined surviving fraction over a wide range of dose and linear energy transfer (LET) values. Our newly established model assembly will be worth being incorporated into treatment planning systems for heavy-ion therapy, brachytherapy, and boron neutron capture therapy, given critical roles of the frequent Bcl-2 overexpression and the nontargeted effect in estimating therapeutic outcomes and harmful effects of such advanced therapeutic modalities.

  17. PERSONAL AND FAMILY SURVIVAL, CIVIL DEFENSE ADULT EDUCATION.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Office of Education (DHEW), Washington, DC.

    TEN BASIC LESSON PLANS THAT CAN BE ADAPTED TO SUIT THE NEEDS OF THE STUDENTS AND EXPANDED TO FIT LOCAL SITUATIONS SERVE AS A GUIDE TO CIVIL DEFENSE ADULT EDUCATION TEACHERS AND REPRESENT THE STATE OF CIVIL DEFENSE AS OF PUBLICATION DATE. THE LESSONS ARE DESIGNED TO BE USED WITH SLIDES OR FILMSTRIPS, A MINIATURE ILLUSTRATION OF WHICH APPEARS AT THE…

  18. Personal and Family Survival. Civil Defense Adult Education; Teacher's Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Office of Civil Defense (DOD), Washington, DC.

    A manual intended as an instructor's aid in presenting a Civil Defense Adult Education Course is presented. It contains 10 lesson plans: Course Introduction, Modern Weapons and Radioactive Fallout (Effects), Modern Weapons and Radioactive Fallout (Protection), National Civil Defense Program, National Shelter Program (Community Shelters), National…

  19. Equal nonbreeding period survival in adults and juveniles of a long-distant migrant bird

    PubMed Central

    Grüebler, Martin U; Korner-Nievergelt, Fränzi; Naef-Daenzer, Beat

    2014-01-01

    In migrant birds, survival estimates for the different life-history stages between fledging and first breeding are scarce. First-year survival is shown to be strongly reduced compared with annual survival of adult birds. However, it remains unclear whether the main bottleneck in juvenile long-distant migrants occurs in the postfledging period within the breeding ranges or en route. Quantifying survival rates during different life-history stages and during different periods of the migration cycle is crucial to understand forces driving the evolution of optimal life histories in migrant birds. Here, we estimate survival rates of adult and juvenile barn swallows (Hirundo rusticaL.) in the breeding and nonbreeding areas using a population model integrating survival estimates in the breeding ranges based on a large radio-telemetry data set and published estimates of demographic parameters from large-scale population-monitoring projects across Switzerland. Input parameters included the country-wide population trend, annual productivity estimates of the double-brooded species, and year-to-year survival corrected for breeding dispersal. Juvenile survival in the 3-week postfledging period was low (S = 0.32; SE = 0.05), whereas in the rest of the annual cycle survival estimates of adults and juveniles were similarly high (S > 0.957). Thus, the postfledging period was the main survival bottleneck, revealing the striking result that nonbreeding period mortality (including migration) is not higher for juveniles than for adult birds. Therefore, focusing future research on sources of variation in postfledging mortality can provide new insights into determinants of population dynamics and life-history evolution of migrant birds. PMID:24683458

  20. How Long Do the Dead Survive on the Road? Carcass Persistence Probability and Implications for Road-Kill Monitoring Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Sara M.; Carvalho, Filipe; Mira, António

    2011-01-01

    Background Road mortality is probably the best-known and visible impact of roads upon wildlife. Although several factors influence road-kill counts, carcass persistence time is considered the most important determinant underlying underestimates of road mortality. The present study aims to describe and model carcass persistence variability on the road for different taxonomic groups under different environmental conditions throughout the year; and also to assess the effect of sampling frequency on the relative variation in road-kill estimates registered within a survey. Methodology/Principal Findings Daily surveys of road-killed vertebrates were conducted over one year along four road sections with different traffic volumes. Survival analysis was then used to i) describe carcass persistence timings for overall and for specific animal groups; ii) assess optimal sampling designs according to research objectives; and iii) model the influence of road, animal and weather factors on carcass persistence probabilities. Most animal carcasses persisted on the road for the first day only, with some groups disappearing at very high rates. The advisable periodicity of road monitoring that minimizes bias in road mortality estimates is daily monitoring for bats (in the morning) and lizards (in the afternoon), daily monitoring for toads, small birds, small mammals, snakes, salamanders, and lagomorphs; 1 day-interval (alternate days) for large birds, birds of prey, hedgehogs, and freshwater turtles; and 2 day-interval for carnivores. Multiple factors influenced the persistence probabilities of vertebrate carcasses on the road. Overall, the persistence was much lower for small animals, on roads with lower traffic volumes, for carcasses located on road lanes, and during humid conditions and high temperatures during the wet season and dry seasons, respectively. Conclusion/Significance The guidance given here on monitoring frequencies is particularly relevant to provide conservation and

  1. Survival rates of adult lake trout in northwestern Lake Michigan, 1983-1993

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Holey, Mark E.; McKee, Patrick C.; Toneys, Michael L.

    1997-01-01

    The restoration of lake trout Salvelinus namaycush in Lake Michigan has been an elusive goal of resource management agencies in the Great Lakes region. In this study, we estimated annual survival rates of adult lake trout from an area in northwestern Lake Michigan known as the Clay Banks refuge. We tagged and recaptured fish with gill nets during the fall spawning season (N = 12,175; 1983–1989 and 1991–1993) and with pound nets in the spring (N = 52,035; 1984–1990 and 1992–1993). We fit Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to the two sets of data. We had insufficient data to analyze annual differences in survival rates of fall-tagged fish, but we were able to estimate an overall annual survival rate of 0.67. Annual survival rates of spring-tagged fish varied between 0.53 and 0.88 and increased after 1987–1988. In addition to the mark–recapture studies, we analyzed catch rates of lake trout from gill-net and pound-net surveys to estimate survival rates using catch curve analyses; these annual rates were generally lower than those estimated from mark–recapture analyses of tagged fish. However, survival rates of lake trout from the Clay Banks refuge appeared to meet the minimum rate believed necessary for restoration of this species in Lake Michigan. Furthermore, adult survival rates have been increasing in recent years, and lake trout restoration in Lake Michigan is not hampered by low survival of adult fish. We hypothesize that the recent decrease in abundance of adult lake trout is primarily due to decreases in survival rates of lake trout younger than 6 years.

  2. IF THEY GROW UP: EXPLORING THE NEIGHBORHOOD CONTEXT OF ADOLESCENT AND YOUNG ADULT SURVIVAL EXPECTATIONS

    PubMed Central

    Swisher, Raymond R.; Warner, Tara D.

    2013-01-01

    Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, this paper examines individual and neighborhood predictors of adolescent and young adult survival expectations — their confidence of surviving to age 35. Analyses revealed that within-person increases in depression and violent perpetration decreased the odds of expecting to survive. Individuals who rated themselves in good health and received routine physical care had greater survival expectations. Consistent with documented health disparities, Black and Hispanic youth had lower survival expectations than did their White peers. Neighborhood poverty was linked to diminished survival expectations both within and between persons, with the between person association remaining significant controlling for mental and physical health, exposure to violence, own violence, and a wide range of socio-demographic factors. PMID:24273393

  3. Surviving Parents' Influence on Adult Children's Depressive Symptoms Following the Death of a First Parent.

    PubMed

    Stokes, Jeffrey E

    2016-10-01

    Parents and children are linked across the life course, and they share common experiences. This article focuses on the bereavement experience of adult children's loss of a first parent during adulthood and examines the downward influence of emotional closeness with a surviving parent on adult children's depressive symptoms following loss. Analyses are based on adult children who experienced the death of a first parent (N = 227), drawn from the Longitudinal Study of Generations, a study of three-and four-generation families from Southern California. Multilevel lagged dependent variable models indicate that an emotionally close relationship with a surviving parent is related with fewer post-bereavement depressive symptoms when a mother survives a father, but not vice versa. This analysis extends the theory of linked lives and highlights the mutual influence parents and children exert, as well as the complex role of gender in shaping family relationships.

  4. Prewinter management affects Megachile rotundata (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) prepupal physiology and adult emergence and survival.

    PubMed

    Pitts-Singer, Theresa L; James, Rosalind R

    2009-08-01

    The alfalfa leafcutting bee, Megachile rotundata F. (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), is widely used as a pollinator for production of alfalfa, Medicago sativa L., seed, and populations of these bees can be maintained by alfalfa seed growers or can be purchased from mostly Canadian bee providers. M. rotundata raised in Canada have higher survival rates during the incubation that occurs after winter storage than do bees produced in the northwestern United States, but no reason has been found for this difference. We investigated whether storing immature M. rotundata for various time periods at a warm temperature (16 degrees C) before winter or allowing them to remain unmanaged at ambient temperatures affects physiological aspects of prepupae during the winter as well as the survival and longevity of adult bees after spring or summer incubation. Our results show that the timing of the onset of winter storage and incubation does affect prepupal weights, prepupal lipid and water contents, adult emergence, and adult female longevity. Winter storage of prepupae in November or December with a late June incubation resulted in heavier adults that emerged more readily than bees incubated in late May. However, adult females incubated in May thrived longer than June-incubated bees if fed a honey-water diet. Thus, some prewinter management regimes for M. rotundata commercial stocks may be more effective than others for achieving optimal adult emergence synchrony, as well as adult survival and longevity for pollination of a summer crop. PMID:19736750

  5. Epidemiology of undiagnosed trichomoniasis in a probability sample of urban young adults.

    PubMed

    Rogers, Susan M; Turner, Charles F; Hobbs, Marcia; Miller, William C; Tan, Sylvia; Roman, Anthony M; Eggleston, Elizabeth; Villarroel, Maria A; Ganapathi, Laxminarayana; Chromy, James R; Erbelding, Emily

    2014-01-01

    T. vaginalis infection (trichomoniasis) is the most common curable sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the U.S. It is associated with increased HIV risk and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Trichomoniasis surveillance data do not exist for either national or local populations. The Monitoring STIs Survey Program (MSSP) collected survey data and specimens which were tested using nucleic acid amplification tests to monitor trichomoniasis and other STIs in 2006-09 among a probability sample of young adults (N = 2,936) in Baltimore, Maryland--an urban area with high rates of reported STIs. The estimated prevalence of trichomoniasis was 7.5% (95% CI 6.3, 9.1) in the overall population and 16.1% (95% CI 13.0, 19.8) among Black women. The overwhelming majority of infected men (98.5%) and women (73.3%) were asymptomatic. Infections were more common in both women (OR = 3.6, 95% CI 1.6, 8.2) and men (OR = 9.0, 95% CI 1.8, 44.3) with concurrent chlamydial infection. Trichomoniasis did not vary significantly by age for either men or women. Women with two or more partners in the past year and women with a history of personal or partner incarceration were more likely to have an infection. Overall, these results suggest that routine T vaginalis screening in populations at elevated risk of infection should be considered.

  6. A TRPV Channel Modulates C. elegans Neurosecretion, Larval Starvation Survival, and Adult Lifespan

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Brian H.; Ashrafi, Kaveh

    2008-01-01

    For most organisms, food is only intermittently available; therefore, molecular mechanisms that couple sensation of nutrient availability to growth and development are critical for survival. These mechanisms, however, remain poorly defined. In the absence of nutrients, newly hatched first larval (L1) stage Caenorhabditis elegans halt development and survive in this state for several weeks. We isolated mutations in unc-31, encoding a calcium-activated regulator of neural dense-core vesicle release, which conferred enhanced starvation survival. This extended survival was reminiscent of that seen in daf-2 insulin-signaling deficient mutants and was ultimately dependent on daf-16, which encodes a FOXO transcription factor whose activity is inhibited by insulin signaling. While insulin signaling modulates metabolism, adult lifespan, and dauer formation, insulin-independent mechanisms that also regulate these processes did not promote starvation survival, indicating that regulation of starvation survival is a distinct program. Cell-specific rescue experiments identified a small subset of primary sensory neurons where unc-31 reconstitution modulated starvation survival, suggesting that these neurons mediate perception of food availability. We found that OCR-2, a transient receptor potential vanilloid (TRPV) channel that localizes to the cilia of this subset of neurons, regulates peptide-hormone secretion and L1 starvation survival. Moreover, inactivation of ocr-2 caused a significant extension in adult lifespan. These findings indicate that TRPV channels, which mediate sensation of diverse noxious, thermal, osmotic, and mechanical stimuli, couple nutrient availability to larval starvation survival and adult lifespan through modulation of neural dense-core vesicle secretion. PMID:18846209

  7. Exact calculations of survival probability for diffusion on growing lines, disks, and spheres: The role of dimension

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simpson, Matthew J.; Baker, Ruth E.

    2015-09-01

    Unlike standard applications of transport theory, the transport of molecules and cells during embryonic development often takes place within growing multidimensional tissues. In this work, we consider a model of diffusion on uniformly growing lines, disks, and spheres. An exact solution of the partial differential equation governing the diffusion of a population of individuals on the growing domain is derived. Using this solution, we study the survival probability, S(t). For the standard non-growing case with an absorbing boundary, we observe that S(t) decays to zero in the long time limit. In contrast, when the domain grows linearly or exponentially with time, we show that S(t) decays to a constant, positive value, indicating that a proportion of the diffusing substance remains on the growing domain indefinitely. Comparing S(t) for diffusion on lines, disks, and spheres indicates that there are minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of zero growth and minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of fast growth. In contrast, for intermediate growth rates, we observe modest differences in S(t) between different geometries. These differences can be quantified by evaluating the exact expressions derived and presented here.

  8. Are Global and Regional Improvements in Life Expectancy and in Child, Adult and Senior Survival Slowing?

    PubMed Central

    Hum, Ryan J.; Verguet, Stéphane; Cheng, Yu-Ling; McGahan, Anita M.; Jha, Prabhat

    2015-01-01

    Improvements in life expectancy have been considerable over the past hundred years. Forecasters have taken to applying historical trends under an assumption of continuing improvements in life expectancy in the future. A linear mixed effects model was used to estimate the trends in global and regional rates of improvements in life expectancy, child, adult, and senior survival, in 166 countries between 1950 and 2010. Global improvements in life expectancy, including both child and adult survival rates, decelerated significantly over the study period. Overall life expectancy gains were estimated to have declined from 5.9 to 4.0 months per year for a mean deceleration of -0.07 months/year2; annual child survival gains declined from 4.4 to 1.6 deaths averted per 1000 for a mean deceleration of -0.06 deaths/1000/year2; adult survival gains were estimated to decline from 4.8 to 3.7 deaths averted per 1000 per year for a mean deceleration of -0.08 deaths/1000/year2. Senior survival gains however increased from 2.4 to 4.2 deaths averted per 1000 per year for an acceleration of 0.03 deaths/1000/year2. Regional variation in the four measures was substantial. The rates of global improvements in life expectancy, child survival, and adult survival have declined since 1950 despite an increase in the rate of improvements among seniors. We postulate that low-cost innovation, related to the last half-century progress in health–primarily devoted to children and middle age, is reaping diminishing returns on its investments. Trends are uneven across regions and measures, which may be due in part to the state of epidemiological transition between countries and regions and disparities in the diffusion of innovation, accessible only in high-income countries where life expectancy is already highest. PMID:25992949

  9. Population dynamics in a long-lived seabird: I. Impact of breeding activity on survival and breeding probability in unbanded king penguins.

    PubMed

    Le Bohec, Céline; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Grémillet, David; Pradel, Roger; Béchet, Arnaud; Gendner, Jean-Paul; Le Maho, Yvon

    2007-11-01

    Understanding the trade-off between current reproductive effort, future survival and future breeding attempts is crucial for demographic analyses and life history studies. We investigated this trade-off in a population of king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) marked individually with transponders using multistate capture-recapture models. This colonial seabird species has a low annual proportion of non-breeders (13%), despite a breeding cycle which lasts over 1 year. To draw inferences about the consequences of non-breeding, we tested for an effect of reproductive activity on survival and on the probability of subsequent breeding. We found that birds non-breeding in year t show the same survival rate as breeders (two-states analysis: breeding and non-breeding). However, breeders had a lower probability of breeding again the following year. This negative phenotypic correlation suggests the existence of reproductive costs affecting future breeding probability, but it might also be strengthened by late arrival for courtship in year t. A three-state analysis including breeding success revealed that failed breeders in year t have a lower probability to reproduce successfully in year t + 1 than non-breeders in year t, providing some evidence for the existence of reproductive costs. Moreover, successful breeders showed higher survival probability. This positive phenotypic correlation between current reproduction and subsequent survival supports the hypothesis of an heterogeneity in individual quality. Males breeding in year t had a lower probability to breed again in year t + 1 than females, suggesting higher reproductive costs for this sex. Such additional costs might be due to higher male parental investment in the final phase of chick-rearing, which also delays the arrival of males in year t + 1, and decreases their breeding probability. Our study is the first to explore the breeding biology and the demography of penguins without the disturbance of flipper

  10. Booster Sessions Enhance the Long-Term Effectiveness of Spaced Retrieval in Older Adults with Probable Alzheimer's Disease

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cherry, Katie E.; Hawley, Karri S.; Jackson, Erin M.; Boudreaux, Emily O.

    2009-01-01

    Six older adults with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) were trained to recall a name-face association using the spaced retrieval technique. In this study, we retested these persons in a 6-month follow-up program. For half of the participants, three booster sessions were administered at 6, 12, and 18 weeks after original training to promote…

  11. Spaced Retrieval Enhances Memory for a Name-Face-Occupation Association in Older Adults with Probable Alzheimer's Disease

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cherry, Katie E.; Walvoord, Ashley A. G.; Hawley, Karri S.

    2010-01-01

    The authors trained 4 older adults with probable Alzheimer's disease to recall a name-face-occupation association using the spaced retrieval technique. Six training sessions were administered over a 2-week period. On each trial, participants selected a target photograph and stated the target name and occupation at increasingly longer retention…

  12. Intra-annual patterns in adult band-tailed pigeon survival estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.; Overton, Cory T.; Howe, Kristy H.

    2015-01-01

    Implications: We present the first inter-seasonal analysis of survival probability of the Pacific coast race of band-tailed pigeons and illustrate important temporal patterns that may influence future species management including harvest strategies and disease monitoring.

  13. Impact of Vapor Pressure Deficit on the Performance of Bemisia tabaci: Adult, Nymphal, and Egg Survival

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The B-biotype sweetpotato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, is a serious global pest with varying population dynamics among different ecosystems. An experiment was conducted to assess the impact of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on the survival of adults, nymphs and eggs of B. tabaci. The insects were reared...

  14. Teaching Community Survival Skills to Mentally Retarded Adults: A Review and Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martin, James E.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    The article reviews research on training mentally retarded adults in the following community survival skills: travel training, money management, meal preparation, clothing and personal care, telephone skill, housekeeping, self-medication, leisure skills, social skills, and conversation. Results are said to indicate the value of behavioral…

  15. Survival Skills Curriculum in Language Arts for 0-4 Level Adult Basic Education Student.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leopold, Joan Y.; Anstine, Carolyn G.; Greene, Margaret P.

    A project was undertaken to develop a realistic survival skills curriculum in language arts for adult basic education (ABE) students that could be used with predischarge residents in institutions for mentally ill individuals in Pennsylvania. After identifying 28 predischarge residents at the Harrisburg State Hospital in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania,…

  16. Survival of glucose phosphate isomerase null somatic cells and germ cells in adult mouse chimaeras.

    PubMed

    Keighren, Margaret A; Flockhart, Jean H; West, John D

    2016-05-15

    The mouse Gpi1 gene encodes the glycolytic enzyme glucose phosphate isomerase. Homozygous Gpi1(-/-) null mouse embryos die but a previous study showed that some homozygous Gpi1(-/-) null cells survived when combined with wild-type cells in fetal chimaeras. One adult female Gpi1(-/-)↔Gpi1(c/c) chimaera with functional Gpi1(-/-) null oocytes was also identified in a preliminary study. The aims were to characterise the survival of Gpi1(-/-) null cells in adult Gpi1(-/-)↔Gpi1(c/c) chimaeras and determine if Gpi1(-/-) null germ cells are functional. Analysis of adult Gpi1(-/-)↔Gpi1(c/c) chimaeras with pigment and a reiterated transgenic lineage marker showed that low numbers of homozygous Gpi1(-/-) null cells could survive in many tissues of adult chimaeras, including oocytes. Breeding experiments confirmed that Gpi1(-/-) null oocytes in one female Gpi1(-/-)↔Gpi1(c/c) chimaera were functional and provided preliminary evidence that one male putative Gpi1(-/-)↔Gpi1(c/c) chimaera produced functional spermatozoa from homozygous Gpi1(-/-) null germ cells. Although the male chimaera was almost certainly Gpi1(-/-)↔Gpi1(c/c), this part of the study is considered preliminary because only blood was typed for GPI. Gpi1(-/-) null germ cells should survive in a chimaeric testis if they are supported by wild-type Sertoli cells. It is also feasible that spermatozoa could bypass a block at GPI, but not blocks at some later steps in glycolysis, by using fructose, rather than glucose, as the substrate for glycolysis. Although chimaera analysis proved inefficient for studying the fate of Gpi1(-/-) null germ cells, it successfully identified functional Gpi1(-/-) null oocytes and revealed that some Gpi1(-/-) null cells could survive in many adult tissues.

  17. Physical skill training increases the number of surviving new cells in the adult hippocampus.

    PubMed

    Curlik, Daniel M; Maeng, Lisa Y; Agarwal, Prateek R; Shors, Tracey J

    2013-01-01

    The dentate gyrus is a major site of plasticity in the adult brain, giving rise to thousands of new neurons every day, through the process of adult neurogenesis. Although the majority of these cells die within two weeks of their birth, they can be rescued from death by various forms of learning. Successful acquisition of select types of associative and spatial memories increases the number of these cells that survive. Here, we investigated the possibility that an entirely different form of learning, physical skill learning, could rescue new hippocampal cells from death. To test this possibility, rats were trained with a physically-demanding and technically-difficult version of a rotarod procedure. Acquisition of the physical skill greatly increased the number of new hippocampal cells that survived. The number of surviving cells positively correlated with performance on the task. Only animals that successfully mastered the task retained the cells that would have otherwise died. Animals that failed to learn, and those that did not learn well did not retain any more cells than those that were untrained. Importantly, acute voluntary exercise in activity wheels did not increase the number of surviving cells. These data suggest that acquisition of a physical skill can increase the number of surviving hippocampal cells. Moreover, learning an easier version of the task did not increase cell survival. These results are consistent with previous reports revealing that learning only rescues new neurons from death when acquisition is sufficiently difficult to achieve. Finally, complete hippocampal lesions did not disrupt acquisition of this physical skill. Therefore, physical skill training that does not depend on the hippocampus can effectively increase the number of surviving cells in the adult hippocampus, the vast majority of which become mature neurons.

  18. Intentional genetic introgression influences survival of adults and subadults in a small, inbred felid population.

    PubMed

    Benson, John F; Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Onorato, David P; Johnson, Warren E; Roelke, Melody E; O'Brien, Stephen J; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K

    2011-09-01

    1. Inbreeding and low genetic diversity can cause reductions in individual fitness and increase extinction risk in animal populations. Intentional introgression, achieved by releasing genetically diverse individuals into inbred populations, has been used as a conservation tool to improve demographic performance in endangered populations. 2. By the 1980s, Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi) had been reduced to a small, inbred population that appeared to be on the brink of extinction. In 1995, female pumas from Texas (P. c. stanleyana) were released in occupied panther range as part of an intentional introgression programme to restore genetic variability and improve demographic performance of panthers. 3. We used 25 years (1981-2006) of continuous radiotelemetry and genetic data to estimate and model subadult and adult panther survival and cause-specific mortality to provide rigorous sex and age class-specific survival estimates and evaluate the effect of the introgression programme on these parameters. 4. Genetic ancestry influenced annual survival of subadults and adults after introgression, as F(1) generation admixed panthers ( = 0·98) survived better than pre-introgression type panthers ( = 0·77) and other admixed individuals ( = 0·82). Furthermore, heterozygosity was higher for admixed panthers relative to pre-introgression type panthers and positively influenced survival. 5. Our results are consistent with hybrid vigour; however, extrinsic factors such as low density of males in some areas of panther range may also have contributed to higher survival of F(1) panthers. Regardless, improved survival of F(1) subadults and adults likely contributed to the numerical increase in panthers following introgression, and our results indicate that intentional admixture, achieved here by releasing individuals from another population, appears to have been successful in improving demographic performance in this highly endangered population. PMID:21338353

  19. Intentional genetic introgression influences survival of adults and subadults in a small, inbred felid population.

    PubMed

    Benson, John F; Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Onorato, David P; Johnson, Warren E; Roelke, Melody E; O'Brien, Stephen J; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K

    2011-09-01

    1. Inbreeding and low genetic diversity can cause reductions in individual fitness and increase extinction risk in animal populations. Intentional introgression, achieved by releasing genetically diverse individuals into inbred populations, has been used as a conservation tool to improve demographic performance in endangered populations. 2. By the 1980s, Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi) had been reduced to a small, inbred population that appeared to be on the brink of extinction. In 1995, female pumas from Texas (P. c. stanleyana) were released in occupied panther range as part of an intentional introgression programme to restore genetic variability and improve demographic performance of panthers. 3. We used 25 years (1981-2006) of continuous radiotelemetry and genetic data to estimate and model subadult and adult panther survival and cause-specific mortality to provide rigorous sex and age class-specific survival estimates and evaluate the effect of the introgression programme on these parameters. 4. Genetic ancestry influenced annual survival of subadults and adults after introgression, as F(1) generation admixed panthers ( = 0·98) survived better than pre-introgression type panthers ( = 0·77) and other admixed individuals ( = 0·82). Furthermore, heterozygosity was higher for admixed panthers relative to pre-introgression type panthers and positively influenced survival. 5. Our results are consistent with hybrid vigour; however, extrinsic factors such as low density of males in some areas of panther range may also have contributed to higher survival of F(1) panthers. Regardless, improved survival of F(1) subadults and adults likely contributed to the numerical increase in panthers following introgression, and our results indicate that intentional admixture, achieved here by releasing individuals from another population, appears to have been successful in improving demographic performance in this highly endangered population.

  20. Survival and water-balance characteristics of unfed adult Amblyomma cajennense (Acari: Ixodidae).

    PubMed

    Strey, O F; Teel, P D; Longnecker, M T; Needham, G R

    1996-01-01

    Off-host survival, water balance, and cold tolerance of unfed adult, Cayenne ticks, Amblyomma cajennense (F.), were examined to evaluate species characteristics important to zoogeography and off-host ecology. Survivorship decreased when males and females were subjected to progressively drier constant environmental conditions. Average maximum survival was 641.2 and 682.5 d at 85% RH and 23 degrees C (2.98 mm Hg) for males and females, respectively. Mean survival in both sexes was progressively less variable in drier conditions. Slopes of log-linear models of survival days based on saturation deficit (mm Hg) were significantly different between males and females at 50%, but not at 25 or 0%. Whole-body water loss rates for 4-wk-old adults were measured at 0% RH and 23 degrees C until ticks became nonambulatory. The mean whole-body water loss rate of females, 0.06128% h-1, was 11.3% less than for males, 0.06914% h-1. Although nonambulatory ticks appeared dead, >1/2 of the individuals from each sex regained ambulatory status after they were removed from 0% RH and exposed to 96% RH for 24 h. Among these, male ticks averaged 0.44 more recuperative (ambulatory) cycles than females, although, the duration encompassing all recuperative cycles was generally longer for females and on average, females gained 8.16% more weight than males upon each rehydration. Estimates of the mean critical equilibrium activity for males and females were 0.74 av and 0.79 av, respectively. A. cajennense adults were found to be less tolerant to -12.5 degrees C than adult lone star ticks, Amblyomma americanum (L.), whose distribution encompasses more temperate regions. Although A. cajennense exhibit little host preference and are capable of extended off-host survival, the establishment of populations beyond this species zoogeographic distribution may be constrained by an intolerance to cold.

  1. Long Term Non-Invasive Ventilation in Children: Impact on Survival and Transition to Adult Care

    PubMed Central

    Chatwin, Michelle; Tan, Hui-Leng; Bush, Andrew; Rosenthal, Mark; Simonds, Anita Kay

    2015-01-01

    Background The number of children receiving domiciliary ventilatory support has grown over the last few decades driven largely by the introduction and widening applications of non-invasive ventilation. Ventilatory support may be used with the intention of increasing survival, or to facilitate discharge home and/or to palliate symptoms. However, the outcome of this intervention and the number of children transitioning to adult care as a consequence of longer survival is not yet clear. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we analysed the outcome in children (<17 years) started on home NIV at Royal Brompton Hospital over an 18 year period 1993-2011. The aim was to establish for different diagnostic groups: survival rate, likelihood of early death depending on diagnosis or discontinuation of ventilation, and the proportion transitioning to adult care. Results 496 children were commenced on home non invasive ventilation; follow-up data were available in 449 (91%). Fifty six per cent (n=254) had neuromuscular disease. Ventilation was started at a median age (IQR) 10 (3-15) years. Thirteen percent (n=59) were less than 1 year old. Forty percent (n=181) have transitioned to adult care. Twenty four percent (n=109) of patients have died, and nine percent (n=42) were able to discontinue ventilatory support. Conclusion Long term ventilation is associated with an increase in survival in a range of conditions leading to ventilatory failure in children, resulting in increasing numbers surviving to adulthood. This has significant implications for planning transition and adult care facilities. PMID:25933065

  2. Dicer expression is essential for adult midbrain dopaminergic neuron maintenance and survival.

    PubMed

    Pang, Xueyan; Hogan, Eric M; Casserly, Alison; Gao, Guangping; Gardner, Paul D; Tapper, Andrew R

    2014-01-01

    The type III RNAse, Dicer, is responsible for the processing of microRNA (miRNA) precursors into functional miRNA molecules, non-coding RNAs that bind to and target messenger RNAs for repression. Dicer expression is essential for mouse midbrain development and dopaminergic (DAergic) neuron maintenance and survival during the early post-natal period. However, the role of Dicer in adult mouse DAergic neuron maintenance and survival is unknown. To bridge this gap in knowledge, we selectively knocked-down Dicer expression in individual DAergic midbrain areas, including the ventral tegmental area (VTA) and substantia nigra pars compacta (SNpc) via viral-mediated expression of Cre in adult floxed Dicer knock-in mice (Dicer(flox/flox)). Bilateral Dicer loss in the VTA resulted in progressive hyperactivity that was significantly reduced by the dopamine agonist, amphetamine. In contrast, decreased Dicer expression in the SNpc did not affect locomotor activity but did induce motor-learning impairment on an accelerating rotarod. Knock-down of Dicer in both midbrain regions of adult Dicer(flox/flox) mice resulted in preferential, progressive loss of DAergic neurons likely explaining motor behavior phenotypes. In addition, knock-down of Dicer in midbrain areas triggered neuronal death via apoptosis. Together, these data indicate that Dicer expression and, as a consequence, miRNA function, are essential for DAergic neuronal maintenance and survival in adult midbrain DAergic neuron brain areas.

  3. Validation of probability equation and decision tree in predicting subsequent dengue hemorrhagic fever in adult dengue inpatients in Singapore.

    PubMed

    Thein, Tun L; Leo, Yee-Sin; Lee, Vernon J; Sun, Yan; Lye, David C

    2011-11-01

    We developed a probability equation and a decision tree from 1,973 predominantly dengue serotype 1 hospitalized adult dengue patients in 2004 to predict progression to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), applied in our clinic since March 2007. The parameters predicting DHF were clinical bleeding, high serum urea, low serum protein, and low lymphocyte proportion. This study validated these in a predominantly dengue serotype 2 cohort in 2007. The 1,017 adult dengue patients admitted to Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore had a median age of 35 years. Of 933 patients without DHF on admission, 131 progressed to DHF. The probability equation predicted DHF with a sensitivity (Sn) of 94%, specificity (Sp) 17%, positive predictive value (PPV) 16%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 94%. The decision tree predicted DHF with a Sn of 99%, Sp 12%, PPV 16%, and NPV 99%. Both tools performed well despite a switch in predominant dengue serotypes.

  4. Treatment and survival of supratentorial and posterior fossa ependymomas in adults.

    PubMed

    Nuño, Miriam; Yu, Jeffrey J; Varshneya, Kunal; Alexander, Julia; Mukherjee, Debraj; Black, Keith L; Patil, Chirag G

    2016-06-01

    Ependymoma is a rare primary brain or spinal cord tumor that arises from the ependyma, a tissue of the central nervous system. This study analyzed a large cohort of adult supratentorial and posterior fossa ependymoma tumors in order to elucidate factors associated with overall survival. We utilized the USA National Cancer Database to study adult World Health Organization grade II/III supratentorial and posterior fossa ependymoma patients treated between 1998 and 2011. Overall survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and factors associated with survival were determined using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Among 1318 patients, 1055 (80.0%) had grade II and 263 (20.0%) anaplastic tumors located in the posterior fossa (64.3%) and supratentorial region (35.7%). Overall average age was 44.3years, 48.0% of patients were female, 86.5% were Caucasian, and 36.8% underwent near/gross total surgical resection. Radiotherapy was given to 662 patients (50.8%) and 75 (5.9%) received chemotherapy. Older age at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.51, p<0.0001), high tumor grade (HR 1.82, p=0.005), and large tumor size (HR 1.66, p=0.008) were associated with poor survival. Females compared to males (HR 0.67, p=0.03) and patients with posterior fossa tumors versus supratentorial (HR 0.64, p=0.04) had a survival advantage. Our study showed that older patients, with supratentorial tumors, and high histological grade had an increased risk of mortality. A survival benefit was captured in females and patients with posterior fossa tumors. Adjuvant radiotherapy and chemotherapy did not confer a survival benefit among all patients, even after stratification by tumor grade or anatomical location. PMID:26810473

  5. Novel estimates of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult survival based on Wolbachia releases.

    PubMed

    Ritchie, Scott A; Montgomery, Brian L; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2013-05-01

    The size of Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito populations and adult survival rates have proven difficult to estimate because of a lack of consistent quantitative measures to equate sampling methods, such as adult trapping, to actual population size. However, such estimates are critical for devising control methods and for modeling the transmission of dengue and other infectious agents carried by this species. Here we take advantage of recent releases of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti coupled with the results of ongoing monitoring to estimate the size of adult Ae. aegypti populations around Cairns in far north Queensland, Australia. Based on the association between released adults infected with Wolbachia and data from Biogents Sentinel traps, we show that data from two locations are consistent with population estimates of approximately 5-10 females per house and daily survival rates of 0.7-0.9 for the released Wolbachia-infected females. Moreover, we estimate that networks of Biogents Sentinel traps at a density of one per 15 houses capture around 5-10% of the adult population per week, and provide a rapid estimate of the absolute population size of Ae. aegypti. These data are discussed with respect to release rates and monitoring in future Wolbachia releases and also the levels of suppression required to reduce dengue transmission. PMID:23802459

  6. Hatching asynchrony, survival, and the fitness of alternative adult morphs in Ambystoma talpoideum.

    PubMed

    Ryan, Travis J; Plague, Gordon R

    2004-06-01

    The mole salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum, exhibits both aquatic (gilled) and terrestrial (metamorphosed) adult morphologies. Previous studies have shown the existence of body-size advantages associated with the terrestrial morph in A. talpoideum and other polymorphic salamanders (e.g., A. tigrinum). However, aquatic adult A. talpoideum mature at a younger age and often breed earlier than terrestrial adults. We tested the hypothesis that early maturation and reproduction in aquatic adults increase fitness (irrespective of body size). We reared larval A. talpoideum in mesocosms and varied the timing of hatching, with early-hatching larvae representing the offspring from early-breeding aquatic adults, and late-hatching larvae representing the offspring of later-breeding terrestrial adults. Our results demonstrate significantly higher survival rates among early-hatchlings relative to late-hatching conspecifics, supporting the hypothesis that early reproduction may be an important mechanism mediating the polymorphism in A. talpoideum. We discuss our results within the context of size-based models of the fitness of alternative life-cycles. PMID:15127287

  7. Effect of noise and detector sensitivity on a dynamical process: inverse power law and Mittag-Leffler interevent time survival probabilities.

    PubMed

    Pramukkul, Pensri; Svenkeson, Adam; Grigolini, Paolo

    2014-02-01

    We study the combined effects of noise and detector sensitivity on a dynamical process that generates intermittent events mimicking the behavior of complex systems. By varying the sensitivity level of the detector we move between two forms of complexity, from inverse power law to Mittag-Leffler interevent time survival probabilities. Here fluctuations fight against complexity, causing an exponential truncation to the survival probability. We show that fluctuations of relatively weak intensity have a strong effect on the generation of Mittag-Leffler complexity, providing a reason why stretched exponentials are frequently found in nature. Our results afford a more unified picture of complexity resting on the Mittag-Leffler function and encompassing the standard inverse power law definition. PMID:25353422

  8. Effect of noise and detector sensitivity on a dynamical process: Inverse power law and Mittag-Leffler interevent time survival probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pramukkul, Pensri; Svenkeson, Adam; Grigolini, Paolo

    2014-02-01

    We study the combined effects of noise and detector sensitivity on a dynamical process that generates intermittent events mimicking the behavior of complex systems. By varying the sensitivity level of the detector we move between two forms of complexity, from inverse power law to Mittag-Leffler interevent time survival probabilities. Here fluctuations fight against complexity, causing an exponential truncation to the survival probability. We show that fluctuations of relatively weak intensity have a strong effect on the generation of Mittag-Leffler complexity, providing a reason why stretched exponentials are frequently found in nature. Our results afford a more unified picture of complexity resting on the Mittag-Leffler function and encompassing the standard inverse power law definition.

  9. Survival of glucose phosphate isomerase null somatic cells and germ cells in adult mouse chimaeras

    PubMed Central

    Keighren, Margaret A.; Flockhart, Jean H.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The mouse Gpi1 gene encodes the glycolytic enzyme glucose phosphate isomerase. Homozygous Gpi1−/− null mouse embryos die but a previous study showed that some homozygous Gpi1−/− null cells survived when combined with wild-type cells in fetal chimaeras. One adult female Gpi1−/−↔Gpi1c/c chimaera with functional Gpi1−/− null oocytes was also identified in a preliminary study. The aims were to characterise the survival of Gpi1−/− null cells in adult Gpi1−/−↔Gpi1c/c chimaeras and determine if Gpi1−/− null germ cells are functional. Analysis of adult Gpi1−/−↔Gpi1c/c chimaeras with pigment and a reiterated transgenic lineage marker showed that low numbers of homozygous Gpi1−/− null cells could survive in many tissues of adult chimaeras, including oocytes. Breeding experiments confirmed that Gpi1−/− null oocytes in one female Gpi1−/−↔Gpi1c/c chimaera were functional and provided preliminary evidence that one male putative Gpi1−/−↔Gpi1c/c chimaera produced functional spermatozoa from homozygous Gpi1−/− null germ cells. Although the male chimaera was almost certainly Gpi1−/−↔Gpi1c/c, this part of the study is considered preliminary because only blood was typed for GPI. Gpi1−/− null germ cells should survive in a chimaeric testis if they are supported by wild-type Sertoli cells. It is also feasible that spermatozoa could bypass a block at GPI, but not blocks at some later steps in glycolysis, by using fructose, rather than glucose, as the substrate for glycolysis. Although chimaera analysis proved inefficient for studying the fate of Gpi1−/− null germ cells, it successfully identified functional Gpi1−/− null oocytes and revealed that some Gpi1−/− null cells could survive in many adult tissues. PMID:27103217

  10. Adult tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) survival on the polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated Housatonic River, Massachusetts, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Custer, Christine M.; Custer, T.W.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Dummer, P.M.

    2007-01-01

    Tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) were captured and banded at six sites that differed in polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination levels in the Housatonic River watershed, western Massachusetts, USA, from 2000 through 2004 to test the prediction that apparent survival rates of females in more contaminated areas were lower than those from less contaminated areas. We also tested whether plumage coloration affected over-winter survival and whether concentrations of PCBs in eggs differed between birds that did and that did not return the following year. Apparent survival rates were calculated using mark?recapture methods and compared using Akaike's Information Criterion. Model-adjusted survival rates ranged from 0.365 to 0.467 for PCB-contaminated females and between 0.404 and 0.476 for reference females. Models with either survival or capture probability modeled as functions of treatment (degree of PCB contamination), year, and age received some support. The model-averaged parameter estimate reflecting a treatment effect for high-PCB birds was negative ( = -0.046, SE() = 0.0939). Fifty-four percent of the total model weights involved models in which survival was a function of PCB treatment. Eggs were collected for contaminant analyses from a random sample of females that did and that did not return the following year. Concentrations of total PCBs were the same or higher in the eggs of females that returned compared to the eggs of those that did not return at both the highly and the moderately contaminated PCB sites. This may have resulted from higher-quality females with higher lipid reserves being more likely than lower-quality females to return the following year. Percentage lipid was positively correlated with total PCBs in eggs. Survival rates were similar among swallows with brown versus blue plumage.

  11. Stress, Social Support, and Outcomes in Two Probability Samples of Homeless Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Toro, Paul A.; Tulloch, Elizabeth; Ouellette, Nicole

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated the main effects of social support measures and their stress-buffering effects in two samples of homeless adults (Ns =249 and 219) obtained in the same large county (surrounding Detroit) at different points in time over an 8-year period (1992-1994 and 2000-2002). The findings suggest that the construct of social support,…

  12. Increasing the Probability of Stimulus Equivalence with Adults with Mild Mental Retardation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saunders, Richard R.; McEntee, Julie, E.

    2004-01-01

    In Experiment 1, 6 adults with mild mental retardation were taught 3 overlapping conditional discriminations in a linear series structure, establishing the possibility of the emergence of 2 stimulus equivalence classes of 4 stimuli per class. Training employed balanced trial types in which the discriminative stimuli were presented in fixed pairs…

  13. The Mineralocorticoid Agonist Fludrocortisone Promotes Survival and Proliferation of Adult Hippocampal Progenitors

    PubMed Central

    Gesmundo, Iacopo; Villanova, Tania; Gargantini, Eleonora; Arvat, Emanuela; Ghigo, Ezio; Granata, Riccarda

    2016-01-01

    Glucocorticoid receptor (GR) activation has been shown to reduce adult hippocampal progenitor cell proliferation and neurogenesis. By contrast, mineralocorticoid receptor (MR) signaling is associated with neuronal survival in the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, and impairment of hippocampal MR has been linked to pathological conditions, such as depression or neurodegenerative disorders. Here, we aimed to further clarify the protective role of MR in adult hippocampal neurons by studying the survival and proliferative effects of the highly potent MR agonist fludrocortisone (Fludro) in adult rat hippocampal progenitor cells (AHPs), along with the associated signaling mechanisms. Fludro, which upregulated MR but not GR expression, increased survival and proliferation and prevented apoptosis in AHPs cultured in growth factor-deprived medium. These effects were blunted by the MR antagonist spironolactone and by high doses of the GR agonist dexamethasone. Moreover, they involved signaling through cAMP/protein kinase A (PKA)/cAMP response element-binding protein, phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)/Akt and its downstream targets glycogen synthase kinase-3β (GSK-3β) and mammalian target of rapamycin. Furthermore, Fludro attenuated the detrimental effects of amyloid-β peptide 1–42 (Aβ1–42) on cell survival, proliferation, and apoptosis in AHPs, and increased the phosphorylation of both PI3K/Akt and GSK-3β, which was reduced by Aβ1–42. Finally, Fludro blocked Aβ1–42-induced hyperphosphorylation of Tau protein, which is a main feature of Alzheimer’s disease. Overall, these results are the first to show the protective and proliferative role of Fludro in AHPs, suggesting the potential therapeutic importance of targeting MR for increasing hippocampal neurogenesis and for treating neurodegenerative diseases. PMID:27379018

  14. Exploring Heterozygosity-Survival Correlations in a Wild Songbird Population: Contrasting Effects between Juvenile and Adult Stages

    PubMed Central

    Canal, David; Serrano, David; Potti, Jaime

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between genetic diversity and fitness, a major issue in evolutionary and conservation biology, is expected to be stronger in traits affected by many loci and those directly influencing fitness. Here we explore the influence of heterozygosity measured at 15 neutral markers on individual survival, one of the most important parameters determining individual fitness. We followed individual survival up to recruitment and during subsequent adult life of 863 fledgling pied flycatchers born in two consecutive breeding seasons. Mark-recapture analyses showed that individual heterozygosity did not influence juvenile or adult survival. In contrast, the genetic relatedness of parents was negatively associated with the offspring’s survival during the adult life, but this effect was not apparent in the juvenile (from fledgling to recruitment) stage. Stochastic factors experienced during the first year of life in this long-distance migratory species may have swamped a relationship between heterozygosity and survival up to recruitment. PMID:25122217

  15. The probability distribution of the amount of an individual`s genome surviving to the following generation

    SciTech Connect

    Bickeboeller, H.; Thompson, E.A.

    1996-06-01

    The results of this probability study concerning the heredity of the human genome state that it is very likely that an individual with at least 4 children passes on at least 90% of his genome. These results occur when an important assumption - the genomic continuum model - is made. 12 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Active vision task and postural control in healthy, young adults: Synergy and probably not duality.

    PubMed

    Bonnet, Cédrick T; Baudry, Stéphane

    2016-07-01

    In upright stance, individuals sway continuously and the sway pattern in dual tasks (e.g., a cognitive task performed in upright stance) differs significantly from that observed during the control quiet stance task. The cognitive approach has generated models (limited attentional resources, U-shaped nonlinear interaction) to explain such patterns based on competitive sharing of attentional resources. The objective of the current manuscript was to review these cognitive models in the specific context of visual tasks involving gaze shifts toward precise targets (here called active vision tasks). The selection excluded the effects of early and late stages of life or disease, external perturbations, active vision tasks requiring head and body motions and the combination of two tasks performed together (e.g., a visual task in addition to a computation in one's head). The selection included studies performed by healthy, young adults with control and active - difficult - vision tasks. Over 174 studies found in Pubmed and Mendeley databases, nine were selected. In these studies, young adults exhibited significantly lower amplitude of body displacement (center of pressure and/or body marker) under active vision tasks than under the control task. Furthermore, the more difficult the active vision tasks were, the better the postural control was. This underscores that postural control during active vision tasks may rely on synergistic relations between the postural and visual systems rather than on competitive or dual relations. In contrast, in the control task, there would not be any synergistic or competitive relations.

  17. Survival and migration route probabilities of juvenile Chinook salmon in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta during the winter of 2009-10

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Romine, Jason G.; Brewer, Scott J.; LaCivita, Peter E.; Brostoff, William N.; Chapman, Eric D.

    2012-01-01

    Juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) emigrating from natal tributaries of the Sacramento River may use a number of migration routes to negotiate the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (hereafter, "the Delta"), each of which may influence their probability of surviving. We applied a mark-recapture model to data from acoustically tagged juvenile late-fall Chinook salmon that migrated through the Delta during the winter of 2009-10 (hereafter, 2010). This report presents findings from our fourth year of research. We estimated route-specific survival for four release groups: two release groups that migrated through the Delta in December 2009 and January 2010, and two release groups that migrated during February 2010. Population-level survival through the Delta (SDelta) ranged from 0.374 (SE = 0.040) to 0.524 (SE = 0.034) among releases. Although river flows for the February release groups were substantially higher (20,000-40,000 ft3/s at Freeport) than for the December release groups (about 10,000 ft3/s), SDelta did not differ considerably between release groups. Among migration routes, fish migrating through the Sacramento River exhibited the highest survival, and fish entering the interior Delta exhibited the lowest survival. Fish entering Sutter and Steamboat Sloughs had lower survival than fish entering the Sacramento River during December, but similar survival during February. These patterns were consistent among release groups, and strikingly similar to patterns observed in previous years. Migration routing varied among release groups partly because of differences in river discharge between releases. For the two December release groups, 26.5 and 28.9 percent of fish entered the interior Delta; for the two February release groups, 10.4 and 17.9 percent of fish entered the interior Delta. Differences in routing probabilities between December and February are partly related to the inverse relationship between flow and the fraction of discharge entering

  18. The Relationship Between Risk Factors and Survival in Adult Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Allahyari, Abolghasem; Hashemi, Seyed-Mehdi; Nazemian, Fahimeh; Karimi, Mohammad; Kazemi, Mohammad-Reza; Sadeghi, Masoud

    2016-01-01

    Background Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is aggressive cancer, especially in adults as only 20-40% is cured with current treatment regimens. Objectives The aim of this study is to evaluate prognostic factors and their effects on survival in ALL patients in the Northeast of Iran. Methods In a descriptive and retrospective study from 2009 to 2015, 48 ALL patients referred to hematology-oncology clinic. Age, sex, fever, blood group, type of ALL and consumption of amphotericin B, forms of cytogenetic, survival in the patients, WBC, hemoglobin, and platelet were checked in the first referral for every patient. The mean follow-up was 27.3 months in which 28 patients (59.3%) died. overall survival (OS) was plotted by GraphPad Prism 5 and the Log-rank test was used for analysis of survival with risk factors. Results The mean age for all the ALL patients at diagnosis was 32.3 years (range, 15-71 years), and 81.3% were male. Of all patients, 62.5% had fever and 25% consumed amphotericin B. 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-year OS rates were 62.2%, 52.7%, 40.6%, 39.1%, 22.2%, respectively. 75%, 29.2% and 39.6% of patients had WBC < 20 × 103/μl, Hb < 7 g/dL and platelet < 30 × 103/μL, respectively. There was a significant difference in survival based on age (P = 0.000). Conclusions Based on the results, age > 35 years is the most prognostic factor in ALL patients. Also, patients who received amphotericin B had lower life expectancy because these patients were suffering from fungal infection or due to lack of response to antibacterial drugs, they have been treated with amphotericin B.

  19. Adjuvant Therapies and Patient and Tumor Characteristics Associated With Survival of Adult Patients With Adrenocortical Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Andrew R.; Sabolch, Aaron; Jolly, Shruti; Miller, Barbra S.; Hammer, Gary D.

    2014-01-01

    Context: Adrenocortical carcinoma is a rare malignant endocrine neoplasia. Studies regarding outcome and prognostic factors rely on fairly small studies. Here we summarize the experience with patients with a diagnosis of adrenocortical carcinoma from a large tertiary referral center. Objective: The objective of the study was to identify prognostic factors in patients with adrenocortical carcinoma and evaluate adjuvant treatment strategies. Design: Patient data were collected in a retrospective single-center study. Epidemiological, patient, and tumor characteristics were analyzed for prognostic factors regarding overall and recurrence-free survival in Cox regression models (multivariable and univariable). Results: Three hundred ninety-one adult patients with the diagnosis of adrenocortical carcinoma were identified. Median overall survival was 35.2 months. Cortisol production [hazard ratio (HR) 1.4, HR 1.5], tumor stage (HR stage 3 of 2.1 and 2.1, HR stage 4 of 4.8), and tumor grade (HR 2.4 and 2.0) were identified as negative prognostic factors (HR for death, HR for recurrence). Mitotane therapy increases recurrence-free survival, an effect that was significantly further improved by adjuvant radiation therapy but did not impact overall survival. Patients with open adrenalectomy had improved overall survival. Conclusions: This study increases the evidence for adverse risk factors (cortisol production, high tumor stage, and high tumor grade) and suggests the following therapy approach: adrenocortical carcinoma patients should be treated with open adrenalectomy. Adjuvant therapy, particularly mitotane therapy in conjunction with radiation, should be considered to delay tumor recurrence. PMID:24302750

  20. Knockout of Atg5 delays the maturation and reduces the survival of adult-generated neurons in the hippocampus

    PubMed Central

    Xi, Y; Dhaliwal, J S; Ceizar, M; Vaculik, M; Kumar, K L; Lagace, D C

    2016-01-01

    Autophagy is an evolutionarily conserved lysosomal degradation pathway that plays important roles in cell maintenance, expansion and differentiation. Removal of genes essential for autophagy from embryonic neural stem and precursor cells reduces the survival and inhibits neuronal differentiation of adult-generated neurons. No study has modified autophagy within the adult precursor cells, leaving the cell-autonomous role of autophagy in adult neurogenesis unknown. Here we demonstrate that autophagic flux exists in the adult dividing progenitor cells and their progeny in the dentate gyrus. To investigate the role of autophagy in adult hippocampal neurogenesis, we genetically deleted Autophagy-related gene 5 (Atg5) that reduced autophagic flux and the survival of the progeny of dividing progenitor cells. This significant reduction in survival of adult-generated neurons is accompanied by a delay in neuronal maturation, including a transient reduction in spine density in the absence of a change in differentiation. The delay in cell maturation and loss of progeny of the Atg5-null cells was not present in mice that lacked the essential pro-apoptotic protein Bax (Bcl-2-associated X protein), suggesting that Atg5-deficient cells die through a Bax-dependent mechanism. In addition, there was a loss of Atg5-null cells following exposure to running, suggesting that Atg5 is required for running-induced increases in neurogenesis. These findings highlight the cell-autonomous requirement of Atg5 in the survival of adult-generated neurons. PMID:26938300

  1. Multicenter study on caries risk assessment in adults using survival Classification and Regression Trees.

    PubMed

    Arino, Masumi; Ito, Ataru; Fujiki, Shozo; Sugiyama, Seiichi; Hayashi, Mikako

    2016-01-01

    Dental caries is an important public health problem worldwide. This study aims to prove how preventive therapies reduce the onset of caries in adult patients, and to identify patients with high or low risk of caries by using Classification and Regression Trees based survival analysis (survival CART). A clinical data set of 732 patients aged 20 to 64 years in nine Japanese general practices was analyzed with the following parameters: age, DMFT, number of mutans streptococci (SM) and Lactobacilli (LB), secretion rate and buffer capacity of saliva, and compliance with a preventive program. Results showed the incidence of primary carious lesion was affected by SM, LB and compliance with a preventive program; secondary carious lesion was affected by DMFT, SM and LB. Survival CART identified high-risk patients for primary carious lesion according to their poor compliance with a preventive program and SM (≥10(6) CFU/ml) with a hazard ratio of 3.66 (p = 0.0002). In the case of secondary caries, patients with LB (≥10(5) CFU/ml) and DMFT (>15) were identified as high risk with a hazard ratio of 3.50 (p < 0.0001). We conclude that preventive programs can be effective in limiting the incidence of primary carious lesion. PMID:27381750

  2. Multicenter study on caries risk assessment in adults using survival Classification and Regression Trees

    PubMed Central

    Arino, Masumi; Ito, Ataru; Fujiki, Shozo; Sugiyama, Seiichi; Hayashi, Mikako

    2016-01-01

    Dental caries is an important public health problem worldwide. This study aims to prove how preventive therapies reduce the onset of caries in adult patients, and to identify patients with high or low risk of caries by using Classification and Regression Trees based survival analysis (survival CART). A clinical data set of 732 patients aged 20 to 64 years in nine Japanese general practices was analyzed with the following parameters: age, DMFT, number of mutans streptococci (SM) and Lactobacilli (LB), secretion rate and buffer capacity of saliva, and compliance with a preventive program. Results showed the incidence of primary carious lesion was affected by SM, LB and compliance with a preventive program; secondary carious lesion was affected by DMFT, SM and LB. Survival CART identified high-risk patients for primary carious lesion according to their poor compliance with a preventive program and SM (≥106 CFU/ml) with a hazard ratio of 3.66 (p = 0.0002). In the case of secondary caries, patients with LB (≥105 CFU/ml) and DMFT (>15) were identified as high risk with a hazard ratio of 3.50 (p < 0.0001). We conclude that preventive programs can be effective in limiting the incidence of primary carious lesion. PMID:27381750

  3. Estimating the effect of hunting on annual survival rates of adult mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burnham, Kenneth P.; White, Gary C.; Anderson, David R.

    1984-01-01

    Management programs for waterfowl populations include rationale for, and establishment of, hunting regulations. These programs rest partially on the results of scientific studies on the effect of harvest rates on annual survival rates. The evidence of this relationship has changed markedly since the mid-1970's, and it is not widely believed that a largely compensatory relationship exists between hunting mortality and other forms of mortality for the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). This paper employs a general probabilistic model formulated to include a parameter (b) representing a continuum between complete compensation (b=0) and total additivity (b=1). Maximum likelihood estimates of this parameter were computer for 47 data sets of adult mallards banded throughout North American before hunting commenced. We found additional evidence of a highly compensatory mortality process for adult male mallards, while the evidence for adults female mallards remains inconclusive. Effective harvest, land acquisition, and land management programs depend upon additional information on the chronology and mechanisms underlying a compensatory mortality process.

  4. Doublecortin (DCX) is not Essential for Survival and Differentiation of Newborn Neurons in the Adult Mouse Dentate Gyrus

    PubMed Central

    Dhaliwal, Jagroop; Xi, Yanwei; Bruel-Jungerman, Elodie; Germain, Johanne; Francis, Fiona; Lagace, Diane C.

    2016-01-01

    In the adult brain, expression of the microtubule-associated protein Doublecortin (DCX) is associated with neural progenitor cells (NPCs) that give rise to new neurons in the dentate gyrus. Many studies quantify the number of DCX-expressing cells as a proxy for the level of adult neurogenesis, yet no study has determined the effect of removing DCX from adult hippocampal NPCs. Here, we use a retroviral and inducible mouse transgenic approach to either knockdown or knockout DCX from adult NPCs in the dentate gyrus and examine how this affects cell survival and neuronal maturation. Our results demonstrate that shRNA-mediated knockdown of DCX or Cre-mediated recombination in floxed DCX mice does not alter hippocampal neurogenesis and does not change the neuronal fate of the NPCs. Together these findings show that the survival and maturation of adult-generated hippocampal neurons does not require DCX. PMID:26793044

  5. Attitudes toward Bisexual Men and Women among a Nationally Representative Probability Sample of Adults in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Herbenick, Debby; Friedman, M. Reuel; Schick, Vanessa; Fu, Tsung-Chieh (Jane); Bostwick, Wendy; Bartelt, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel; Pletta, David; Reece, Michael; Sandfort, Theo G. M.

    2016-01-01

    As bisexual individuals in the United States (U.S.) face significant health disparities, researchers have posited that these differences may be fueled, at least in part, by negative attitudes, prejudice, stigma, and discrimination toward bisexual individuals from heterosexual and gay/lesbian individuals. Previous studies of individual and social attitudes toward bisexual men and women have been conducted almost exclusively with convenience samples, with limited generalizability to the broader U.S. population. Our study provides an assessment of attitudes toward bisexual men and women among a nationally representative probability sample of heterosexual, gay, lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. Data were collected from the 2015 National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior (NSSHB), via an online questionnaire with a probability sample of adults (18 years and over) from throughout the U.S. We included two modified 5-item versions of the Bisexualities: Indiana Attitudes Scale (BIAS), validated sub-scales that were developed to measure attitudes toward bisexual men and women. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, gamma regression, and paired t-tests. Gender, sexual identity, age, race/ethnicity, income, and educational attainment were all significantly associated with participants' attitudes toward bisexual individuals. In terms of responses to individual scale items, participants were most likely to “neither agree nor disagree” with all attitudinal statements. Across sexual identities, self-identified other participants reported the most positive attitudes, while heterosexual male participants reported the least positive attitudes. As in previous research on convenience samples, we found a wide range of demographic characteristics were related with attitudes toward bisexual individuals in our nationally-representative study of heterosexual, gay/lesbian, and other-identified adults in the U.S. In particular, gender emerged as a significant

  6. Early-life disease exposure and associations with adult survival, cause of death, and reproductive success in preindustrial humans.

    PubMed

    Hayward, Adam D; Rigby, Francesca L; Lummaa, Virpi

    2016-08-01

    A leading hypothesis proposes that increased human life span since 1850 has resulted from decreased exposure to childhood infections, which has reduced chronic inflammation and later-life mortality rates, particularly from cardiovascular disease, stroke, and cancer. Early-life cohort mortality rate often predicts later-life survival in humans, but such associations could arise from factors other than disease exposure. Additionally, the impact of early-life disease exposure on reproduction remains unknown, and thus previous work ignores a major component of fitness through which selection acts upon life-history strategy. We collected data from seven 18th- and 19th-century Finnish populations experiencing naturally varying mortality and fertility levels. We quantified early-life disease exposure as the detrended child mortality rate from infectious diseases during an individual's first 5 y, controlling for important social factors. We found no support for an association between early-life disease exposure and all-cause mortality risk after age 15 or 50. We also found no link between early-life disease exposure and probability of death specifically from cardiovascular disease, stroke, or cancer. Independent of survival, there was no evidence to support associations between early-life disease exposure and any of several aspects of reproductive performance, including lifetime reproductive success and age at first birth, in either males or females. Our results do not support the prevailing assertion that exposure to infectious diseases in early life has long-lasting associations with later-life all-cause mortality risk or mortality putatively linked to chronic inflammation. Variation in adulthood conditions could therefore be the most likely source of recent increases in adult life span. PMID:27457937

  7. Early-life disease exposure and associations with adult survival, cause of death, and reproductive success in preindustrial humans.

    PubMed

    Hayward, Adam D; Rigby, Francesca L; Lummaa, Virpi

    2016-08-01

    A leading hypothesis proposes that increased human life span since 1850 has resulted from decreased exposure to childhood infections, which has reduced chronic inflammation and later-life mortality rates, particularly from cardiovascular disease, stroke, and cancer. Early-life cohort mortality rate often predicts later-life survival in humans, but such associations could arise from factors other than disease exposure. Additionally, the impact of early-life disease exposure on reproduction remains unknown, and thus previous work ignores a major component of fitness through which selection acts upon life-history strategy. We collected data from seven 18th- and 19th-century Finnish populations experiencing naturally varying mortality and fertility levels. We quantified early-life disease exposure as the detrended child mortality rate from infectious diseases during an individual's first 5 y, controlling for important social factors. We found no support for an association between early-life disease exposure and all-cause mortality risk after age 15 or 50. We also found no link between early-life disease exposure and probability of death specifically from cardiovascular disease, stroke, or cancer. Independent of survival, there was no evidence to support associations between early-life disease exposure and any of several aspects of reproductive performance, including lifetime reproductive success and age at first birth, in either males or females. Our results do not support the prevailing assertion that exposure to infectious diseases in early life has long-lasting associations with later-life all-cause mortality risk or mortality putatively linked to chronic inflammation. Variation in adulthood conditions could therefore be the most likely source of recent increases in adult life span.

  8. First estimates of the probability of survival in a small-bodied, high-elevation frog (Boreal Chorus Frog, Pseudacris maculata), or how historical data can be useful

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Muths, Erin L.; Scherer, R. D.; Amburgey, S. M.; Matthews, T.; Spencer, A. W.; Corn, P.S.

    2016-01-01

    In an era of shrinking budgets yet increasing demands for conservation, the value of existing (i.e., historical) data are elevated. Lengthy time series on common, or previously common, species are particularly valuable and may be available only through the use of historical information. We provide first estimates of the probability of survival and longevity (0.67–0.79 and 5–7 years, respectively) for a subalpine population of a small-bodied, ostensibly common amphibian, the Boreal Chorus Frog (Pseudacris maculata (Agassiz, 1850)), using historical data and contemporary, hypothesis-driven information–theoretic analyses. We also test a priori hypotheses about the effects of color morph (as suggested by early reports) and of drought (as suggested by recent climate predictions) on survival. Using robust mark–recapture models, we find some support for early hypotheses regarding the effect of color on survival, but we find no effect of drought. The congruence between early findings and our analyses highlights the usefulness of historical information in providing raw data for contemporary analyses and context for conservation and management decisions.

  9. Long-term survival in laparoscopic vs open resection for colorectal liver metastases: inverse probability of treatment weighting using propensity scores

    PubMed Central

    Lewin, Joel W.; O'Rourke, Nicholas A.; Chiow, Adrian K.H.; Bryant, Richard; Martin, Ian; Nathanson, Leslie K.; Cavallucci, David J.

    2015-01-01

    Background This study compares long-term outcomes between intention-to-treat laparoscopic and open approaches to colorectal liver metastases (CLM), using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) based on propensity scores to control for selection bias. Method Patients undergoing liver resection for CLM by 5 surgeons at 3 institutions from 2000 to early 2014 were analysed. IPTW based on propensity scores were generated and used to assess the marginal treatment effect of the laparoscopic approach via a weighted Cox proportional hazards model. Results A total of 298 operations were performed in 256 patients. 7 patients with planned two-stage resections were excluded leaving 284 operations in 249 patients for analysis. After IPTW, the population was well balanced. With a median follow up of 36 months, 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) for the cohort were 59% and 38%. 146 laparoscopic procedures were performed in 140 patients, with weighted 5-year OS and RFS of 54% and 36% respectively. In the open group, 138 procedures were performed in 122 patients, with a weighted 5-year OS and RFS of 63% and 38% respectively. There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of OS or RFS. Conclusion In the Brisbane experience, after accounting for bias in treatment assignment, long term survival after LLR for CLM is equivalent to outcomes in open surgery. PMID:26902138

  10. Demographic, Psychological, and Social Characteristics of Self-Identified Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Adults in a US Probability Sample

    PubMed Central

    Norton, Aaron T.; Allen, Thomas J.; Sims, Charles L.

    2010-01-01

    Using data from a US national probability sample of self-identified lesbian, gay, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports population parameter estimates for a variety of demographic, psychological, and social variables. Special emphasis is given to information with relevance to public policy and law. Compared with the US adult population, respondents were younger, more highly educated, and less likely to be non-Hispanic White, but differences were observed between gender and sexual orientation groups on all of these variables. Overall, respondents tended to be politically liberal, not highly religious, and supportive of marriage equality for same-sex couples. Women were more likely than men to be in a committed relationship. Virtually all coupled gay men and lesbians had a same-sex partner, whereas the vast majority of coupled bisexuals were in a heterosexual relationship. Compared with bisexuals, gay men and lesbians reported stronger commitment to a sexual-minority identity, greater community identification and involvement, and more extensive disclosure of their sexual orientation to others. Most respondents reported experiencing little or no choice about their sexual orientation. The importance of distinguishing among lesbians, gay men, bisexual women, and bisexual men in behavioral and social research is discussed. PMID:20835383

  11. Role for protein geranylgeranylation in adult T-cell leukemia cell survival

    SciTech Connect

    Nonaka, Mizuho; Uota, Shin; Saitoh, Yasunori; Takahashi, Mayumi; Sugimoto, Haruyo; Amet, Tohti; Arai, Ayako; Miura, Osamu; Yamamoto, Naoki; Yamaoka, Shoji

    2009-01-15

    Adult T-cell leukemia (ATL) is a fatal lymphoproliferative disease that develops in human T-cell leukemia virus type I (HTLV-I)-infected individuals. Despite the accumulating knowledge of the molecular biology of HTLV-I-infected cells, effective therapeutic strategies remain to be established. Recent reports showed that the hydroxyl-3-methylglutaryl (HMG)-CoA reductase inhibitor statins have anti-proliferative and apoptotic effects on certain tumor cells through inhibition of protein prenylation. Here, we report that statins hinder the survival of ATL cells and induce apoptotic cell death. Inhibition of protein geranylgeranylation is responsible for these effects, since simultaneous treatment with isoprenoid precursors, geranylgeranyl pyrophosphate or farnesyl pyrophosphate, but not a cholesterol precursor squalene, restored the viability of ATL cells. Simvastatin inhibited geranylgeranylation of small GTPases Rab5B and Rac1 in ATL cells, and a geranylgeranyl transferase inhibitor GGTI-298 reduced ATL cell viability more efficiently than a farnesyl transferase inhibitor FTI-277. These results not only unveil an important role for protein geranylgeranylation in ATL cell survival, but also implicate therapeutic potentials of statins in the treatment of ATL.

  12. Survival of adult generated hippocampal neurons is altered in circadian arrhythmic mice.

    PubMed

    Rakai, Brooke D; Chrusch, Michael J; Spanswick, Simon C; Dyck, Richard H; Antle, Michael C

    2014-01-01

    The subgranular zone of the hippocampal formation gives rise to new neurons that populate the dentate gyrus throughout life. Cells in the hippocampus exhibit rhythmic clock gene expression and the circadian clock is known to regulate the cycle of cell division in other areas of the body. These facts suggest that the circadian clock may regulate adult neurogenesis in the hippocampus as well. In the present study, neurogenesis in the hippocampal subgranular zone was examined in arrhythmic Bmal1 knockout (-KO) mice and their rhythmic heterozygous and wildtype littermates. Proliferation and survival of newly generated subgranular zone cells were examined using bromodeoxyuridine labelling, while pyknosis (a measure of cell death) and hippocampal volume were examined in cresyl violet stained sections. There was no significant difference in cellular proliferation between any of the groups, yet survival of proliferating cells, 6 weeks after the bromodeoxyuridine injection, was significantly greater in the BMAL1-KO animals. The number of pyknotic cells was significantly decreased in Bmal1-KO animals, yet hippocampal volume remained the same across genotypes. These findings suggest that while a functional circadian clock is not necessary for normal proliferation of neuronal precursor cells, the normal pruning of newly generated neurons in the hippocampus may require a functional circadian clock. PMID:24941219

  13. Prediction of a Required Log Reduction with Probability for Enterobacter sakazakii during High-Pressure Processing, Using a Survival/Death Interface Model▿

    PubMed Central

    Koseki, Shige; Matsubara, Maki; Yamamoto, Kazutaka

    2009-01-01

    A probabilistic model for predicting Enterobacter sakazakii inactivation in trypticase soy broth (TSB) and infant formula (IF) by high-pressure processing was developed. The modeling procedure is based on a previous model (S. Koseki and K. Yamamoto, Int. J. Food Microbiol. 116:136-143, 2007) that describes the probability of death of bacteria. The model developed in this study consists of a total of 300 combinations of pressure (400, 450, 500, 550, or 600 MPa), pressure-holding time (1, 3, 5, 10, or 20 min), temperature (25 or 40°C), inoculum level (3, 5, or 7 log10 CFU/ml), and medium (TSB or IF), with each combination tested in triplicate. For each replicate response of E. sakazakii, survival and death were scored with values of 0 and 1, respectively. Data were fitted to a logistic regression model in which the medium was treated as a dummy variable. The model predicted that the required pressure-holding times at 500 MPa for a 5-log reduction in IF with 90% achievement probability were 26.3 and 7.9 min at 25 and 40°C, respectively. The probabilities of achieving 5-log reductions in TSB and IF by treatment with 400 MPa at 25°C for 10 min were 92 and 3%, respectively. The model enabled the identification of a minimum processing condition for a required log reduction, regardless of the underlying inactivation kinetics pattern. Simultaneously, the probability of an inactivation effect under the predicted processing condition was also provided by taking into account the environmental factors mentioned above. PMID:19201951

  14. Prediction of a required log reduction with probability for Enterobacter sakazakii during high-pressure processing, using a survival/death interface model.

    PubMed

    Koseki, Shige; Matsubara, Maki; Yamamoto, Kazutaka

    2009-04-01

    A probabilistic model for predicting Enterobacter sakazakii inactivation in trypticase soy broth (TSB) and infant formula (IF) by high-pressure processing was developed. The modeling procedure is based on a previous model (S. Koseki and K. Yamamoto, Int. J. Food Microbiol. 116:136-143, 2007) that describes the probability of death of bacteria. The model developed in this study consists of a total of 300 combinations of pressure (400, 450, 500, 550, or 600 MPa), pressure-holding time (1, 3, 5, 10, or 20 min), temperature (25 or 40 degrees C), inoculum level (3, 5, or 7 log(10) CFU/ml), and medium (TSB or IF), with each combination tested in triplicate. For each replicate response of E. sakazakii, survival and death were scored with values of 0 and 1, respectively. Data were fitted to a logistic regression model in which the medium was treated as a dummy variable. The model predicted that the required pressure-holding times at 500 MPa for a 5-log reduction in IF with 90% achievement probability were 26.3 and 7.9 min at 25 and 40 degrees C, respectively. The probabilities of achieving 5-log reductions in TSB and IF by treatment with 400 MPa at 25 degrees C for 10 min were 92 and 3%, respectively. The model enabled the identification of a minimum processing condition for a required log reduction, regardless of the underlying inactivation kinetics pattern. Simultaneously, the probability of an inactivation effect under the predicted processing condition was also provided by taking into account the environmental factors mentioned above.

  15. Adult tree swallow survival on the polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated Hudson River, New York, USA, between 2006 and 2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Custer, Christine M.; Custer, Thomas W.; Hines, James E.

    2012-01-01

    The upper Hudson River basin in east central New York, USA, is highly contaminated, primarily with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Reduced adult survival has been documented in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) at a similarly PCB-contaminated river system in western Massachusetts. The purpose of the present study was to assess whether adult survival of tree swallows was likewise affected in the Hudson River basin. Between 2006 and 2010, a total of 521 female tree swallows were banded, of which 148 were retrapped at least once. The authors used Program MARK and an information theoretic approach to test the hypothesis that PCB contamination reduced annual survival of female tree swallows. The model that best described the processes that generated the capture history data included covariate effects of year and female plumage coloration on survival but not PCB/river. Annual survival rates of brown-plumaged females (mostly one year old) were generally lower (mean phi = 0.39) than those of blue-plumaged females (mean phi = 0.50, one year or older). Poor early spring weather in 2007 was associated with reduced survival in both plumage-color groups compared to later years. Models with the effects of PCB exposure on survival (all ΔAICc values >5.0) received little support.

  16. Persistent organic pollution in a high-Arctic top predator: sex-dependent thresholds in adult survival

    PubMed Central

    Erikstad, Kjell Einar; Sandvik, Hanno; Reiertsen, Tone Kristin; Bustnes, Jan Ove; Strøm, Hallvard

    2013-01-01

    In long-lived species, any negative effect of pollution on adult survival may pose serious hazards to breeding populations. In this study, we measured concentrations of various organochlorines (OCs) (polychlorinated biphenyl and OC pesticides) in the blood of a large number of adult glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus) breeding on Bjørnøya (Bear Island) in the Norwegian Arctic, and modelled their local survival using capture–recapture analysis. Survival was negatively associated with concentrations of OCs in the blood. The effect of OCs was nonlinear and evident only among birds with the highest concentrations (the uppermost deciles of contamination). The threshold for depressed survival differed between the sexes, with females being more sensitive to contamination. For birds with lower OC concentration, survival was very high, i.e. at the upper range of survival rates reported from glaucous and other large gull species in other, presumably less contaminated populations. We propose two non-exclusive explanations. First, at some threshold of OC concentration, parents (especially males) may abandon reproduction to maximize their own survival. Second, high contamination of OC may eliminate the most sensitive individuals from the population (especially among females), inducing a strong selection towards high-quality and less sensitive phenotypes. PMID:23966640

  17. Adult tree swallow survival on the polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated Hudson River, New York, USA, between 2006 and 2010.

    PubMed

    Custer, Christine M; Custer, Thomas W; Hines, James E

    2012-08-01

    The upper Hudson River basin in east central New York, USA, is highly contaminated, primarily with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Reduced adult survival has been documented in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) at a similarly PCB-contaminated river system in western Massachusetts. The purpose of the present study was to assess whether adult survival of tree swallows was likewise affected in the Hudson River basin. Between 2006 and 2010, a total of 521 female tree swallows were banded, of which 148 were retrapped at least once. The authors used Program MARK and an information theoretic approach to test the hypothesis that PCB contamination reduced annual survival of female tree swallows. The model that best described the processes that generated the capture history data included covariate effects of year and female plumage coloration on survival but not PCB/river. Annual survival rates of brown-plumaged females (mostly one year old) were generally lower (mean phi=0.39) than those of blue-plumaged females (mean phi=0.50, one year or older). Poor early spring weather in 2007 was associated with reduced survival in both plumage-color groups compared to later years. Models with the effects of PCB exposure on survival (all ΔAICc values >5.0) received little support.

  18. Social Structural Influences on Healthy Aging: Community-Level Socioeconomic Conditions and Survival Probability of Becoming a Centenarian for Those Aged 65 to 69 in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jong In; Kim, Gukbin

    2015-10-01

    This study estimated the associations between community-level socioeconomic conditions and survival probability of becoming a centenarian (SPBC) for those aged 65 to 69 in South Korea to determine the social structural influences on healthy aging. The indicators of socioeconomic and data of centenarians were obtained from Statistics Korea database 2014: population census and social survey. Significant positive correlations were found between SPBC and community-level socioeconomic conditions (minimum cost of living and economically active population, water supply and sewerage, pave a road with asphalt, and urbanization). SPBC male and female predictors had higher economic level and base facilities (R2)=0.578, p<.001). The study provides evidence that community-level socioeconomic conditions are important correlates of SPBC for those aged 65 to 69 in South Korea. These strategies should include social structural influences on successful aging in the overall socioeconomic conditions. PMID:26769915

  19. Social Structural Influences on Healthy Aging: Community-Level Socioeconomic Conditions and Survival Probability of Becoming a Centenarian for Those Aged 65 to 69 in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jong In; Kim, Gukbin

    2015-10-01

    This study estimated the associations between community-level socioeconomic conditions and survival probability of becoming a centenarian (SPBC) for those aged 65 to 69 in South Korea to determine the social structural influences on healthy aging. The indicators of socioeconomic and data of centenarians were obtained from Statistics Korea database 2014: population census and social survey. Significant positive correlations were found between SPBC and community-level socioeconomic conditions (minimum cost of living and economically active population, water supply and sewerage, pave a road with asphalt, and urbanization). SPBC male and female predictors had higher economic level and base facilities (R2)=0.578, p<.001). The study provides evidence that community-level socioeconomic conditions are important correlates of SPBC for those aged 65 to 69 in South Korea. These strategies should include social structural influences on successful aging in the overall socioeconomic conditions.

  20. Relative abundance, site fidelity, and survival of adult lake trout in Lake Michigan from 1999 to 2001: Implications for future restoration strategies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bronte, C.R.; Holey, M.E.; Madenjian, C.P.; Jonas, J.L.; Claramunt, R.M.; McKee, P.C.; Toneys, M.L.; Ebener, M.P.; Breidert, B.; Fleischer, G.W.; Hess, R.; Martell, A.W.; Olsen, E.J.

    2007-01-01

    We compared the relative abundance of lake trout Salvelinus namaycush spawners in gill nets during fall 1999–2001 in Lake Michigan at 19 stocked spawning sites with that at 25 unstocked sites to evaluate how effective site-specific stocking was in recolonizing historically important spawning reefs. The abundance of adult fish was higher at stocked onshore and offshore sites than at unstocked sites. This suggests that site-specific stocking is more effective at establishing spawning aggregations than relying on the ability of hatchery-reared lake trout to find spawning reefs, especially those offshore. Spawner densities were generally too low and too young at most sites to expect significant natural reproduction. However, densities were sufficiently high at some sites for reproduction to occur and therefore the lack of recruitment was attributable to other factors. Less than 3% of all spawners could have been wild fish, which indicates that little natural reproduction occurred in past years. Wounding by sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus was generally lower for Seneca Lake strain fish and highest for strains from Lake Superior. Fish captured at offshore sites in southern Lake Michigan had the lowest probability of wounding, while fish at onshore sites in northern Lake Michigan had the highest probability. The relative survival of the Seneca Lake strain was higher than that of the Lewis Lake or the Marquette strains for the older year-classes examined. Survival differences among strains were less evident for younger year-classes. Recaptures of coded-wire-tagged fish of five strains indicated that most fish returned to their stocking site or to a nearby site and that dispersal from stocking sites during spawning was about 100 km. Restoration strategies should rely on site-specific stocking of lake trout strains with good survival at selected historically important offshore spawning sites to increase egg deposition and the probability of natural reproduction in Lake

  1. Studies on survival and water balance of unfed adult Dermacentor marginatus and D. reticulatus ticks (Acari: Ixodidae).

    PubMed

    Meyer-König, A; Zahler, M; Gothe, R

    2001-01-01

    The water content, the survival time at various relative humidities (r.h.) and the critical equilibrium activity of unfed adult Dermacentor marginatus and D. reticulatus ticks were investigated at a constant temperature of 20 degrees C. It was also examined whether these ticks use liquid water to compensate water loss. Both Dermacentor spp. showed no significant differences in water content in relation to body mass. The mean water content of D. marginatus and D. reticulatus was 54.6% and 54.7%, respectively, in females and 56.3% and 57.0%, respectively, in males. The survival time of unfed adults prolonged with decreasing saturation deficits. On average, males survived longer than females and D. marginatus ticks survived mostly longer than D. reticulatus ticks. The 50% mortality period ranged between 40 d at 33% r.h. and 420 d at 95% r.h. in D. marginatus, and between 43 d at 33 r.h. and 366 d at 95% r.h. in D. reticulatus. The critical equilibrium activity of unfed adults was estimated to be 0.84 for both species and was independent of sex. When dehydrated adult D. marginatus and D. reticulatus ticks were offered liquid water, only a few slightly gained weight while most further lost weight. Liquid water was not attractive for dehydrated or non-dehydrated ticks and drinking was not observed. After submerging in water for 2 d, most of the dehydrated ticks had gained weight.

  2. Late summer survival of adult female and juvenile spectacled eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Barry, Grand J.; Morse, J.A.; Fondell, T.F.

    2000-01-01

    We used radio-telemetry to examine survival of adult female and juvenile Spectacled Eiders (Somateria fischeri) from 30 days after hatch until departure from the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) during 1997-1999. Juvenile survival was 71.4%; adult female survival was 88.5%. Mink (Mustella vison) were the most common predator identified for both adults and juveniles. Detectable levels of lead were found in bones of 74% of juvenile carcasses recovered and 21% had levels indicative of acute exposure. Average age at departure was 59 ?? 1 days old for juveniles and 56 ?? 1 days after hatch for adults. Most broods (60.5%) departed the YKD synchronously. Overall our data indicate that mortality during the latter half of brood-rearing is higher than previously thought. We conclude that brood rearing is a period of high mortality for brood-rearing females and that lead poisoning is responsible for reductions in juvenile survival to fledging. Received 15 February 2000, accepted 1 April 2000.

  3. Postnatal growth rates covary weakly with embryonic development rates and do not explain adult mortality probability among songbirds on four continents

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Thomas E.; Oteyza, Juan C.; Mitchell, Adam E.; Potticary, Ahva L.; Lloyd, P.

    2016-01-01

    Growth and development rates may result from genetic programming of intrinsic processes that yield correlated rates between life stages. These intrinsic rates are thought to affect adult mortality probability and longevity. However, if proximate extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, food) influence development rates differently between stages and yield low covariance between stages, then development rates may not explain adult mortality probability. We examined these issues based on study of 90 songbird species on four continents to capture the diverse life-history strategies observed across geographic space. The length of the embryonic period explained little variation (ca. 13%) in nestling periods and growth rates among species. This low covariance suggests that the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic influences on growth and development rates differs between stages. Consequently, nestling period durations and nestling growth rates were not related to annual adult mortality probability among diverse songbird species within or among sites. The absence of a clear effect of faster growth on adult mortality when examined in an evolutionary framework across species may indicate that species that evolve faster growth also evolve physiological mechanisms for ameliorating costs on adult mortality. Instead, adult mortality rates of species in the wild may be determined more strongly by extrinsic environmental causes.

  4. Postnatal growth rates covary weakly with embryonic development rates and do not explain adult mortality probability among songbirds on four continents.

    PubMed

    Martin, Thomas E; Oteyza, Juan C; Mitchell, Adam E; Potticary, Ahva L; Lloyd, Penn

    2015-03-01

    Growth and development rates may result from genetic programming of intrinsic processes that yield correlated rates between life stages. These intrinsic rates are thought to affect adult mortality probability and longevity. However, if proximate extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, food) influence development rates differently between stages and yield low covariance between stages, then development rates may not explain adult mortality probability. We examined these issues based on study of 90 songbird species on four continents to capture the diverse life-history strategies observed across geographic space. The length of the embryonic period explained little variation (ca. 13%) in nestling periods and growth rates among species. This low covariance suggests that the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic influences on growth and development rates differs between stages. Consequently, nestling period durations and nestling growth rates were not related to annual adult mortality probability among diverse songbird species within or among sites. The absence of a clear effect of faster growth on adult mortality when examined in an evolutionary framework across species may indicate that species that evolve faster growth also evolve physiological mechanisms for ameliorating costs on adult mortality. Instead, adult mortality rates of species in the wild may be determined more strongly by extrinsic environmental causes.

  5. Sustained Survival and Maturation of Adult Neural Stem/Progenitor Cells after Transplantation into the Injured Brain

    PubMed Central

    Gugliotta, Marinella; Rolfe, Andrew; Reid, Wendy; McQuiston, A. Rory; Hu, Wenhui; Young, Harold

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Multipotent neural stem/progenitor cells (NS/NPCs) that are capable of generating neurons and glia offer enormous potential for treating neurological diseases. Adult NS/NPCs that reside in the mature mammalian brain can be isolated and expanded in vitro, and could be a potential source for autologous transplantation to replace cells lost to brain injury or disease. When these cells are transplanted into the normal brain, they can survive and become region-specific cells. However, it has not been reported whether these cells can survive for an extended period and become functional cells in an injured heterotypic environment. In this study, we tested survival, maturation fate, and electrophysiological properties of adult NS/NPCs after transplantation into the injured rat brain. NS/NPCs were isolated from the subventricular zone of adult Fisher 344 rats and cultured as a monolayer. Recipient adult Fisher 344 rats were first subjected to a moderate fluid percussive injury. Two days later, cultured NS/NPCs were injected into the injured brain in an area between the white matter tracts and peri-cortical region directly underneath the injury impact. The animals were sacrificed 2 or 4 weeks after transplantation for immunohistochemical staining or patch-clamp recording. We found that transplanted cells survived well at 2 and 4 weeks. Many cells migrated out of the injection site into surrounding areas expressing astrocyte or oligodendrocyte markers. Whole cell patch-clamp recording at 4 weeks showed that transplanted cells possessed typical mature glial cell properties. These data demonstrate that adult NS/NPCs can survive in an injured heterotypic environment for an extended period and become functional cells. PMID:21332258

  6. Survival and preference of cotton boll weevil adults for alternative food sources.

    PubMed

    Pimenta, M; Mata, R A; Venzon, M; Cunha, D N C; Fontes, E M G; Pires, C S S; Sujii, E R

    2016-06-01

    Plants that have potential as alternative food source (floral nectar, pollen and plant tissues) to the boll weevil during the intercropping season were evaluated considering the prevalent conditions of Cerrado in the Central Brazil. Initially, we tested the nutritional adequacy for the survival of the insect of flower resource (pollen and nectar) provided by eight plant species (fennel, mexican sunflower, castor bean, okra, hibiscus, sorghum, pigeonpea and sunn hemp). Subsequently, we tested if the resources provided by the selected plants continued to be exploited by the boll weevil in the presence of cotton plant, its main food source average longevity of boll weevil adults was significantly longer when they were fed on hibiscus' flowers (166.6 ± 74.4) and okra flowers (34.7 ± 28.9) than when they fed on flowers of other six species. Subsequently, the preference of the boll weevil in the use of resources was compared between okra or hibiscus and cotton plants, in dual choice experiments. Boll weevils preferred plants of the three species in the reproductive stages than those in vegetative stages. Although the cotton plant in the reproductive stage was the most preferred plant of all, boll weevils preferred flowering okra and hibiscus than cotton at the vegetative stage. PMID:26934148

  7. Hate Crimes and Stigma-Related Experiences among Sexual Minority Adults in the United States: Prevalence Estimates from a National Probability Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herek, Gregory M.

    2009-01-01

    Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or…

  8. Prognostic factors and survival in late adolescent and adult patients with small round cell tumors.

    PubMed

    Eralp, Yeşim; Bavbek, Sevil; Başaran, Mert; Kaytan, Esra; Yaman, Fulya; Bilgiç, Bilge; Darendeliler, Emin; Onat, Haluk

    2002-08-01

    The primary objective of this study is to review the clinical characteristics of 25 patients in the adult and late adolescent age group, diagnosed and treated with small round cell tumors involving soft tissues (extraosseous Ewing sarcoma, rhabdo-myosarcoma, primitive neuroectodermal tumor, and undiffer-entiated small round cell tumors). Additionally, survival and prognostic factors influencing the outcome with multimodality treatment are evaluated. There were 19 males (76%) and 6 females (24%). The median age was 26 years (range: 15-56 years). In 9 patients (36%), the tumor was located at an extremity, whereas 16 patients (64%) had central localizations. Tumor size was larger than 10 cm in 7 patients (29.2%). Six patients (24%) had metastatic disease. Twelve patients (48%) received radiation and 16 patients (64%) underwent surgery. Among the resected tumors, 2 were resected with contaminated margins (12.5%), whereas 2 were radically resected and 12 (75%) were resected with wide margins. All patients were given a median of 4 cycles of multiagent chemotherapy (1-14 cycles). With preoperative chemotherapy, complete regression (CR) of the tumor was achieved in 6 patients (24%). In 4 patients (16%), a partial response was obtained. After the completion of multimodality treatment, 12 patients (48%) had a CR. Progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for the entire group was 25.0 +/- 10.8% at 1 year and 30.5 +/- 15.5% at 3 years, respectively. Nonmetastatic disease, wide and radical resection, and presence of CR to multimodality treatment were associated with a significantly longer PFS and OS by univariate analysis. By multivariate analysis, CR to multimodality treat-ment was the only independent predictive factor for a longer OS (p: 0.0036, relative risk [RR]: 23.6, 95% CI: 2.8; 198.7) and metastatic presentation was the only independent factor predic-tive for a shorter PFS (p: 0.017, RR. 15, 95% CI: 1.6; 141.2). Large-scale, multicenter studies are required for

  9. Determination of the compound nucleus survival probability Psurv for various "hot" fusion reactions based on the dynamical cluster-decay model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chopra, Sahila; Kaur, Arshdeep; Gupta, Raj K.

    2015-03-01

    After a successful attempt to define and determine recently the compound nucleus (CN) fusion/ formation probability PCN within the dynamical cluster-decay model (DCM), we introduce and estimate here for the first time the survival probability Psurv of CN against fission, again within the DCM. Calculated as the dynamical fragmentation process, Psurv is defined as the ratio of the evaporation residue (ER) cross section σER and the sum of σER and fusion-fission (ff) cross section σff, the CN formation cross section σCN, where each contributing fragmentation cross section is determined in terms of its formation and barrier penetration probabilities P0 and P . In DCM, the deformations up to hexadecapole and "compact" orientations for both in-plane (coplanar) and out-of-plane (noncoplanar) configurations are allowed. Some 16 "hot" fusion reactions, forming a CN of mass number ACN˜100 to superheavy nuclei, are analyzed for various different nuclear interaction potentials, and the variation of Psurv on CN excitation energy E*, fissility parameter χ , CN mass ACN, and Coulomb parameter Z1Z2 is investigated. Interesting results are that three groups, namely, weakly fissioning, radioactive, and strongly fissioning superheavy nuclei, are identified with Psurv, respectively, ˜1 ,˜10-6 , and ˜10-10 . For the weakly fissioning group (100

  10. Surviving submerged--Setal tracheal gills for gas exchange in adult rheophilic diving beetles.

    PubMed

    Kehl, Siegfried; Dettner, Konrad

    2009-11-01

    The gas exchange in adult diving beetles (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae) relies on a subelytral air store, which has to be renewed in regular intervals at the water surface. The dive duration varies from a few minutes to 24 h depending on the species, activity, and temperature. However, some species remain submerged for several weeks. Stygobiont species do not ascend to the surface and gas exchange of these species remains unclear, but it is assumed that they require air filled voids for respiration or they use cutaneous respiration. In this study, we investigate the gas exchange in the running water diving beetle Deronectes aubei, which survive submerged for over 6 weeks. The diffusion distance through the cuticle is too great for cutaneous respiration. Therefore, the dissolved oxygen uptake of submerged beetles was determined and an oxygen uptake via the rich tracheated elytra was observed. Fine structure analyses (SEM and TEM) of the beetles showed tracheated setae mainly on the elytral surface, which acts as tracheal gills. Prevention of the air bubble formation at the tip of the abdomen, which normally act as physical gill in Dytiscidae, resulted in no effect in oxygen uptake in D. aubei, but this was the sole way for a submerged Hydroporus palustris to get oxygen. The setal gas exchange technique explains the restriction of D. aubei to rivers and brooks with high oxygen concentration and it may also be used by subterran living diving beetles, which lack access to atmospheric oxygen. The existence of setal tracheal gills in species in running water which are often found in the hyporheic zone and in stygobiont species supports the known evolution of stygobiont Dytiscidae from species of the hyporheic zone. For species in running water, setal tracheal gills could be seen as an adaptation to avoid drifting downstream by the current.

  11. Epinephrine, but not vasopressin, improves survival rates in an adult rabbit model of asphyxia cardiac arrest.

    PubMed

    Chen, Meng-Hua; Xie, Lu; Liu, Tang-Wei; Song, Feng-Qing; He, Tao; Zeng, Zhi-yu; Mo, Shu-Rong

    2007-06-01

    Although vasopressin has been reported to be more effective than epinephrine for cardiopulmonary resuscitation in ventricular fibrillation animal models, its efficacy in asphyxia model remains controversy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of vasopressin vs epinephrine on restoration of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) in a rabbit model of asphyxia cardiac arrest. Cardiac arrest was induced by clamping endotracheal tube. After 5 minutes of basic life-support cardiopulmonary resuscitation, animals who had no ROSC were randomly assigned to receive either epinephrine alone (epinephrine group; 200 microg/kg) or vasopressin alone (vasopressin group; 0.8 U/kg). The coronary perfusion pressure (CPP) was calculated as the difference between the minimal diastolic aortic and simultaneously recorded right atrial pressure. Restoration of spontaneous circulation was defined as an unassisted pulse with a systolic arterial pressure of 60 mm Hg or higher for 5 minutes or longer. We induced arrest in 62 rabbits, 15 of whom had ROSC before drug administration and were excluded from analysis. The remaining 47 rabbits were randomized to epinephrine group (n = 24) and vasopressin group (n = 23). Before and after drug administration, CPP in epinephrine group increased significantly (from -4 +/- 4 to 36 +/- 9 mm Hg at peak value, P = .000), whereas CPP in vasopressin group increased only slightly (from 9 +/- 5 to 18 +/- 6 mm Hg at peak value, P = .20). After drug administration, 13 of 24 epinephrine rabbit had ROSC, and only 2 of 23 vasopressin rabbit had ROSC (P < .01). Consequently, we conclude that epinephrine, but not vasopressin, increases survival rates in this adult rabbit asphyxia model.

  12. Overwintering, Oviposition, and Larval Survival of Hunting Billbugs (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) and Implications for Adult Damage in North Carolina Turfgrass.

    PubMed

    Reynolds, Diane Silcox; Reynolds, William Casey; Brandenburg, Rick L

    2016-02-01

    The hunting billbug, Sphenophorus venatus vestitus Chittenden, is one of the most widely recognized billbug turfgrass pests. Since 2000, damage to warm-season turfgrass caused by hunting bill bugs has increased and a need for information on hunting billbug biology is necessary for the development of management plans. Field and laboratory studies were conducted to collect data on overwintering, oviposition behavior, larval survival at various levels of soil moisture, and adult damage. Turfgrass samples from ‘Tifway 419’ bermudagrass(Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers x Cynodon transvaalensis Burtt Davy) on golf courses were collected to determine overwintering behavior, and 10 female adult billbugs were collected weekly to determine oviposition behavior.Survival of medium-sized larvae (head capsule width: 1.0 and 1.7 mm) was evaluated in containers with 20, 40,60, or 80% of the total pore space occupied by water. Zero, two, four, or six adult billbugs were placed in bermudagrass, zoysiagrass, or tall fescue containers and images were collected for 4 weeks to determine adult damage. We observed that hunting billbugs overwinter as adults and all larval sizes. Adults became active in March and began to oviposit, which continued through October. Larval mortality was lowest with 20% of the total pores pace occupied by water, while increases in moisture caused significant mortality. Adults caused a greater reduction in warm-season turfgrass cover than cool-season turfgrass cover. This research builds on the existing biological information for the hunting billbug biology in transition zones and will be pivotal in developing practical and sustainable management plans.

  13. Overwintering, Oviposition, and Larval Survival of Hunting Billbugs (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) and Implications for Adult Damage in North Carolina Turfgrass.

    PubMed

    Reynolds, Diane Silcox; Reynolds, William Casey; Brandenburg, Rick L

    2016-02-01

    The hunting billbug, Sphenophorus venatus vestitus Chittenden, is one of the most widely recognized billbug turfgrass pests. Since 2000, damage to warm-season turfgrass caused by hunting bill bugs has increased and a need for information on hunting billbug biology is necessary for the development of management plans. Field and laboratory studies were conducted to collect data on overwintering, oviposition behavior, larval survival at various levels of soil moisture, and adult damage. Turfgrass samples from ‘Tifway 419’ bermudagrass(Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers x Cynodon transvaalensis Burtt Davy) on golf courses were collected to determine overwintering behavior, and 10 female adult billbugs were collected weekly to determine oviposition behavior.Survival of medium-sized larvae (head capsule width: 1.0 and 1.7 mm) was evaluated in containers with 20, 40,60, or 80% of the total pore space occupied by water. Zero, two, four, or six adult billbugs were placed in bermudagrass, zoysiagrass, or tall fescue containers and images were collected for 4 weeks to determine adult damage. We observed that hunting billbugs overwinter as adults and all larval sizes. Adults became active in March and began to oviposit, which continued through October. Larval mortality was lowest with 20% of the total pores pace occupied by water, while increases in moisture caused significant mortality. Adults caused a greater reduction in warm-season turfgrass cover than cool-season turfgrass cover. This research builds on the existing biological information for the hunting billbug biology in transition zones and will be pivotal in developing practical and sustainable management plans. PMID:26567333

  14. Behavioural Effects of Adult Vitamin D Deficiency in BALB/c Mice Are not Associated with Proliferation or Survival of Neurons in the Adult Hippocampus.

    PubMed

    Groves, Natalie J; Bradford, DanaKai; Sullivan, Robert K P; Conn, Kyna-Anne; Aljelaify, Rasha Fahad; McGrath, John J; Burne, Thomas H J

    2016-01-01

    Epidemiological studies have shown that up to one third of adults have insufficient levels of vitamin D and there is an association between low vitamin D concentrations and adverse brain outcomes, such as depression. Vitamin D has been shown to be involved in processes associated with neurogenesis during development. Therefore, the aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that adult vitamin D (AVD) deficiency in BALB/c mice was associated with (a) adult hippocampal neurogenesis at baseline, b) following 6 weeks of voluntary wheel running and (c) a depressive-like phenotype on the forced swim test (FST), which may be linked to alterations in hippocampal neurogenesis. We assessed proliferation and survival of adult born hippocampal neurons by counting the number of cells positive for Ki67 and doublecortin (DCX), and incorporation of 5-Bromo-2'-Deoxyuridine (BrdU) within newly born mature neurons using immunohistochemistry. There were no significant effects of diet on number of Ki67+, DCX+ or BrdU+ cells in the dentate gyrus. All mice showed significantly increased number of Ki67+ cells and BrdU incorporation, and decreased immobility time in the FST, after voluntary wheel running. A significant correlation was found in control mice between immobility time in the FST and level of hippocampal neurogenesis, however, no such correlation was found for AVD-deficient mice. We conclude that AVD deficiency was not associated with impaired proliferation or survival of adult born neurons in BALB/c mice and that the impact on rodent behaviour may not be due to altered neurogenesis per se, but to altered function of new hippocampal neurons or processes independent of adult neurogenesis. PMID:27043014

  15. Behavioural Effects of Adult Vitamin D Deficiency in BALB/c Mice Are not Associated with Proliferation or Survival of Neurons in the Adult Hippocampus

    PubMed Central

    Groves, Natalie J.; Bradford, DanaKai; Sullivan, Robert K. P.; Conn, Kyna-Anne; Aljelaify, Rasha Fahad; McGrath, John J.; Burne, Thomas H. J.

    2016-01-01

    Epidemiological studies have shown that up to one third of adults have insufficient levels of vitamin D and there is an association between low vitamin D concentrations and adverse brain outcomes, such as depression. Vitamin D has been shown to be involved in processes associated with neurogenesis during development. Therefore, the aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that adult vitamin D (AVD) deficiency in BALB/c mice was associated with (a) adult hippocampal neurogenesis at baseline, b) following 6 weeks of voluntary wheel running and (c) a depressive-like phenotype on the forced swim test (FST), which may be linked to alterations in hippocampal neurogenesis. We assessed proliferation and survival of adult born hippocampal neurons by counting the number of cells positive for Ki67 and doublecortin (DCX), and incorporation of 5-Bromo-2’-Deoxyuridine (BrdU) within newly born mature neurons using immunohistochemistry. There were no significant effects of diet on number of Ki67+, DCX+ or BrdU+ cells in the dentate gyrus. All mice showed significantly increased number of Ki67+ cells and BrdU incorporation, and decreased immobility time in the FST, after voluntary wheel running. A significant correlation was found in control mice between immobility time in the FST and level of hippocampal neurogenesis, however, no such correlation was found for AVD-deficient mice. We conclude that AVD deficiency was not associated with impaired proliferation or survival of adult born neurons in BALB/c mice and that the impact on rodent behaviour may not be due to altered neurogenesis per se, but to altered function of new hippocampal neurons or processes independent of adult neurogenesis. PMID:27043014

  16. Behenoyl cytosine arabinoside, daunorubicin, 6-mercaptopurine, and prednisolone combination therapy for acute myelogenous leukemia in adults and prognostic factors related to remission duration and survival length.

    PubMed

    Ohno, R; Kato, Y; Nagura, E; Murase, T; Okumura, M; Yamada, H; Ogura, M; Minami, S; Suzuki, H; Morishima, Y

    1986-12-01

    Fifty-one consecutive previously untreated adult patients with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) were treated with BHAC-DMP (N4-behenoyl-I-beta-D-arabinofuranosyl-cytosine, daunorubicin, 6-mercaptopurine, and prednisolone) therapy. Forty-two patients (82.4%) achieved complete remission (CR). The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a probability for remaining in remission of 14% and for survival of 23% at 6 years. Pretreatment factors related to the achievement of CR, such as age, French-American-British (FAB) classification and WBC at the start of treatment, were not identified. Factors related to the CR duration and survival time of the patients who had achieved CR were first analyzed by a univariate analysis with the generalized Wilcoxon test. WBC count at the start of treatment, percent of blasts in the marrow at 1 and 2 weeks after the initiation of therapy, days required until CR, number of courses of induction therapy required until CR, and days required for the disappearance of circulating blasts were identified as statistically significant prognostic factors. When these characteristics were further analyzed by the Cox multivariate regression model, the percent of blasts in the bone marrow at 2 weeks was the most important prognostic factor with a statistical significance, and WBC count at the start of treatment and days required until CR (or number of courses required to achieve CR) were also important factors, with borderline significance. PMID:3465875

  17. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin, Volume VIII; New Model for Estimating Survival Probabilities and Residualization from a Release-Recapture Study of Fall Chinook Salmon Smolts in the Snake River, 1995 Technical Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Lowther, Alan B.; Skalski, John R.

    1997-09-01

    Standard release-recapture analysis using Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models to estimate survival probabilities between hydroelectric facilities for Snake River fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) ignore the possibility of individual fish residualizing and completing their migration in the year following tagging.

  18. Exposure of black-legged kittiwakes to Lyme disease spirochetes: dynamics of the immune status of adult hosts and effects on their survival.

    PubMed

    Chambert, Thierry; Staszewski, Vincent; Lobato, Elisa; Choquet, Rémi; Carrie, Cécile; McCoy, Karen D; Tveraa, Torkild; Boulinier, Thierry

    2012-09-01

    1. Despite a growing interest in wildlife disease ecology, there is a surprising lack of knowledge about the exposure dynamics of individual animals to naturally circulating infectious agents and the impact of such agents on host life-history traits. 2. The exploration of these questions requires detailed longitudinal data on individual animals that can be captured multiple times during their life but also requires being able to account for several sources of uncertainty, notably the partial observation or recapture of individuals at each sampling occasion. 3. We use a multi-year dataset to (i) assess the potential effect of exposure to the tick-borne agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (Bbsl), on adult apparent survival for one of its natural long-lived hosts, the Black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), and (ii) investigate the temporal dynamics of individual immunological status in kittiwakes to infer the rate of new exposure and the persistence of the immune response. Using a multi-event modelling approach, potential uncertainties arising from partial observations were explicitly taken into account. 4. The potential impact of Bbsl on kittiwake survival was also evaluated via an experimental approach: the apparent survival of a group of breeding birds treated with an antibiotic was compared with that of a control group. 5. No impact of exposure to Bbsl was detected on adult survival in kittiwakes, in either observational or experimental data. 6. An annual seroconversion rate (from negative to positive) of 1·5% was estimated, but once an individual became seropositive, it remained so with a probability of 1, suggesting that detectable levels of anti-Bbsl antibodies persist for multiple years. 7. These results, in combination with knowledge on patterns of exposure to the tick vector of Bbsl, provide important information for understanding the spatio-temporal nature of the interaction between this host and several of its parasites. Furthermore

  19. Supratentorial hemispheric ependymomas: an analysis of 109 adults for survival and prognostic factors.

    PubMed

    Hollon, Todd; Nguyen, Vincent; Smith, Brandon W; Lewis, Spencer; Junck, Larry; Orringer, Daniel A

    2016-08-01

    OBJECTIVE Survival rates and prognostic factors for supratentorial hemispheric ependymomas have not been determined. The authors therefore designed a retrospective study to determine progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and prognostic factors for hemispheric ependymomas. METHODS The study population consisted of 8 patients from our institution and 101 patients from the literature with disaggregated survival information (n = 109). Patient age, sex, tumor side, tumor location, extent of resection (EOR), tumor grade, postoperative chemotherapy, radiation, time to recurrence, and survival were recorded. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were completed to determine survival rates and prognostic factors. RESULTS Anaplastic histology/WHO Grade III tumors were identified in 62% of cases and correlated with older age. Three-, 5-, and 10-year PFS rates were 57%, 51%, and 42%, respectively. Three-, 5-, and 10-year OS rates were 77%, 71%, and 58%, respectively. EOR and tumor grade were identified on both Kaplan-Meier log-rank testing and univariate Cox proportional hazard models as prognostic for PFS and OS. Both EOR and tumor grade remained prognostic on multivariate analysis. Subtotal resection (STR) predicted a worse PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 4.764, p = 0.001) and OS (HR 4.216, p = 0.008). Subgroup survival analysis of patients with STR demonstrated a 5- and 10-year OS of 28% and 0%, respectively. WHO Grade III tumors also had worse PFS (HR 10.2, p = 0.004) and OS (HR 9.1, p = 0.035). Patients with WHO Grade III tumors demonstrated 5- and 10-year OS of 61% and 46%, respectively. Postoperative radiation was not prognostic for PFS or OS. CONCLUSIONS A high incidence of anaplastic histology was found in hemispheric ependymomas and was associated with older age. EOR and tumor grade were prognostic factors for PFS and OS on multivariate analysis. STR or WHO Grade III pathology, or both, predicted worse overall prognosis in patients

  20. Tissue Mercury Concentrations and Survival of Tree Swallow Embryos, Nestlings and Young Adult Females on a Contaminated Site.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Capwell E; Cristol, Daniel A

    2015-10-01

    Tree swallows nesting on mercury-contaminated sites along the South River in Virginia, USA were monitored for reproductive success. The bodies of nestlings found deceased in their nest boxes were collected, along with blood and feather samples from the adult parents and surviving siblings. We also measured hatching and fledging success of the clutches and the annual recapture rate of adults. We found that the body feathers of deceased nestlings contained significantly higher concentrations of mercury (12.89 ± 8.42 μg/g, n = 15) than those of nestlings that survived to fledge (7.41 ± 4.79 μg/g, n = 15). However, mothers of more successful clutches (>75 % hatching) did not differ in mercury concentrations from females with less successful clutches (<50 % hatching). Additionally, adult females breeding for the first time that returned to breed the following year did not differ in blood mercury from females of the same age that bred once but never returned. Our results suggest that mercury had its greatest effect on these songbirds during the nestling stage, whereas for embryos or first-time breeding females, other factors likely played larger roles in mortality.

  1. Spring-summer survival rates of yearling versus adult mallard females

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reynolds, R.E.; Blohm, R.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1995-01-01

    Knowledge of the timing, magnitude, and cause of mortality in wildlife populations is imperative for developing management strategies that protect or improve the status of these populations. Age- and sex-specific population parameter estimates provide the most useful information for this purpose. Numerous studies have provided information about survival rates in mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), but little is known about age-related differences in female survival during the breeding period. We examined band-recovery data for female mallards banded in southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba during spring and summer 1981-85. We used band-recovery models to test the hypothesis that yearling females would exhibit higher survival compared with that of older females during spring-summer. There was evidence (P = 0.08) that spring-summer survival rates of yearling females (0.728) were higher than that of older females (0.574). These findings support the hypothesis that age-specific differences in nesting behavior (e.g., later nest initiation and fewer nesting attempts by yearlings) influence losses to predators and are responsible for the difference in spring-summer survival. Management treatments that increase nest success, and consequently reduce the need for prolonged nesting, will increase mallard survival during spring-summer.

  2. Sex disparity in childhood and young adult acute myeloid leukemia (AML) survival: Evidence from US population data.

    PubMed

    Hossain, Md Jobayer; Xie, Li

    2015-12-01

    Sex variation has been persistently investigated in studies concerning acute myeloid leukemia (AML) survival outcomes but has not been fully explored among pediatric and young adult AML patients. We detected sex difference in the survival of AML patients diagnosed at ages 0-24 years and explored distinct effects of sex across subgroups of age at diagnosis, race-ethnicity and AML subtypes utilizing the United States Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) population based dataset of 4865 patients diagnosed with AML between 1973 and 2012. Kaplan-Meier survival function, propensity scores and stratified Cox proportional hazards regression were used for data analyses. After controlling for other prognostic factors, females showed a significant survival advantage over their male counterparts, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.00-1.18). Compared to females, male patients had substantially increased risk of mortality in the following subgroups of: ages 20-24 years at diagnosis (aHR1.30), Caucasian (1.14), acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) (1.35), acute erythroid leukemia (AEL) (1.39), AML with inv(16)(p13.1q22) (2.57), AML with minimum differentiation (1.47); and had substantially decreased aHR in AML t(9;11)(p22;q23) (0.57) and AML with maturation (0.82). Overall, females demonstrated increased survival over males and this disparity was considerably large in patients ages 20-24 years at diagnosis, Caucasians, and in AML subtypes of AML inv(16), APL and AEL. In contrast, males with AML t(9;11)(p22;q23), AML with maturation and age at diagnosis of 10-14 years showed survival benefit. Further investigations are needed to detect the biological processes influencing the mechanisms of these interactions.

  3. Reduced Long-Term Relative Survival in Females and Younger Adults Undergoing Cardiac Surgery: A Prospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Enger, Tone Bull; Pleym, Hilde; Stenseth, Roar; Greiff, Guri; Wahba, Alexander; Videm, Vibeke

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To assess long-term survival and mortality in adult cardiac surgery patients. Methods 8,564 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery in Trondheim, Norway from 2000 until censoring 31.12.2014 were prospectively followed. Observed long-term mortality following surgery was compared to the expected mortality in the Norwegian population, matched on gender, age and calendar year. This enabled assessment of relative survival (observed/expected survival rates) and relative mortality (observed/expected deaths). Long-term mortality was compared across gender, age and surgical procedure. Predictors of reduced survival were assessed with multivariate analyses of observed and relative mortality. Results During follow-up (median 6.4 years), 2,044 patients (23.9%) died. The observed 30-day, 1-, 3- and 5-year mortality rates were 2.2%, 4.4%, 8.2% and 13.8%, respectively, and remained constant throughout the study period. Comparing observed mortality to that expected in a matched sample from the general population, patients undergoing cardiac surgery showed excellent survival throughout the first seven years of follow-up (relative survival ≥ 1). Subsequently, survival decreased, which was more pronounced in females and patients undergoing other procedures than isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Relative mortality was higher in younger age groups, females and patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR). The female survival advantage in the general population was obliterated (relative mortality ratio (RMR) 1.35 (1.19–1.54), p<0.001). Increasing observed long-term mortality seen with ageing was due to population risk, and younger age was independently associated with increased relative mortality (RMR per 5 years 0.81 (0.79–0.84), p<0.001)). Conclusions Cardiac surgery patients showed comparable survival to that expected in the general Norwegian population, underlining the benefits of cardiac surgery in appropriately selected patients. The

  4. Species differences in behavior and cell proliferation/survival in the adult brains of female meadow and prairie voles.

    PubMed

    Pan, Y; Liu, Y; Lieberwirth, C; Zhang, Z; Wang, Z

    2016-02-19

    Microtine rodents display diverse patterns of social organization and behaviors, and thus provide a useful model for studying the effects of the social environment on physiology and behavior. The current study compared the species differences and the effects of oxytocin (OT) on anxiety-like, social affiliation, and social recognition behaviors in female meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) and prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster). Furthermore, cell proliferation and survival in the brains of adult female meadow and prairie voles were compared. We found that female meadow voles displayed a higher level of anxiety-like behavior but lower levels of social affiliation and social recognition compared to female prairie voles. In addition, meadow voles showed lower levels of cell proliferation (measured by Ki67 staining) and cell survival (measured by BrdU staining) in the ventromedial hypothalamus (VMH) and amygdala (AMY), but not the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus (DG), than prairie voles. Interestingly, the numbers of new cells in the VMH and AMY, but not DG, also correlated with anxiety-like, social affiliation, and social recognition behaviors in a brain region-specific manner. Finally, central OT treatment (200 ng/kg, icv) did not lead to changes in behavior or cell proliferation/survival in the brain. Together, these data indicate a potential role of cell proliferation/survival in selected brain areas on different behaviors between vole species with distinct life strategies. PMID:26708743

  5. Physical and Psychological Symptom Profiling and Event-Free Survival in Adults with Moderate to Advanced Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Christopher S.; Gelow, Jill M.; Denfeld, Quin E.; Mudd, James O.; Burgess, Donna; Green, Jennifer K.; Hiatt, Shirin O.; Jurgens, Corrine Y.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Heart failure (HF) is a heterogeneous symptomatic disorder. The goal of this study was to identify and link common profiles of physical and psychological symptoms to 1-year event-free survival in adults with moderate to advanced HF. Methods Multiple valid, reliable, and domain-specific measures were used to assess physical and psychological symptoms. Latent class mixture modeling was used to identify distinct symptom profiles. Associations between observed symptom profiles and 1-year event-free survival were quantified using Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results The mean age (n=202) was 57±13 years, 50% were male, and 60% had class III/IV HF. Three distinct profiles, mild (41.7%), moderate (30.2%), and severe (28.1%), were identified that captured a gradient of both physical and psychological symptom burden (p<0.001 for all comparisons). Controlling for the Seattle HF Score, adults with the “moderate” symptom profile were 82% more likely (hazard ratio 1.82 (95% confidence interval 1.07–3.11), p=0.028), and adults with the “severe” symptom profile were more than twice as likely (hazard ratio 2.06 (95% confidence interval 1.21–3.52), p=0.001) to have a clinical event within one year than patients with the “mild” symptom profile. Conclusions Profiling patterns among physical and psychological symptoms identifies HF patient subgroups with significantly worse 1-year event-free survival independent of prognostication based on objective clinical HF data. PMID:23416942

  6. The Impact of Physical, Intellectual and Social Impairments on Survival in Adults with Intellectual Disability: A Population-Based Register Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tyrer, Freya; Smith, Lucy K.; McGrother, Catherine W.; Taub, Nicholas A.

    2007-01-01

    Background: Research into factors associated with survival in adults with intellectual disability is limited and no studies have controlled for changes in these factors over time. Material and Methods: All adults aged greater than or equal to 20 years with moderate to profound intellectual disability (approximate IQ less than 50) using specialist…

  7. Intertwining extracellular nucleotides and their receptors with Ca2+ in determining adult neural stem cell survival, proliferation and final fate.

    PubMed

    Lecca, Davide; Fumagalli, Marta; Ceruti, Stefania; Abbracchio, Maria P

    2016-08-01

    In the central nervous system (CNS), during both brain and spinal cord development, purinergic and pyrimidinergic signalling molecules (ATP, UTP and adenosine) act synergistically with peptidic growth factors in regulating the synchronized proliferation and final specification of multipotent neural stem cells (NSCs) to neurons, astrocytes or oligodendrocytes, the myelin-forming cells. Some NSCs still persist throughout adulthood in both specific 'neurogenic' areas and in brain and spinal cord parenchyma, retaining the potentiality to generate all the three main types of adult CNS cells. Once CNS anatomical structures are defined, purinergic molecules participate in calcium-dependent neuron-to-glia communication and also control the behaviour of adult NSCs. After development, some purinergic mechanisms are silenced, but can be resumed after injury, suggesting a role for purinergic signalling in regeneration and self-repair also via the reactivation of adult NSCs. In this respect, at least three different types of adult NSCs participate in the response of the adult brain and spinal cord to insults: stem-like cells residing in classical neurogenic niches, in particular, in the ventricular-subventricular zone (V-SVZ), parenchymal oligodendrocyte precursor cells (OPCs, also known as NG2-glia) and parenchymal injury-activated astrocytes (reactive astrocytes). Here, we shall review and discuss the purinergic regulation of these three main adult NSCs, with particular focus on how and to what extent modulation of intracellular calcium levels by purinoceptors is mandatory to determine their survival, proliferation and final fate.This article is part of the themed issue 'Evolution brings Ca(2+) and ATP together to control life and death'. PMID:27377726

  8. Winter survival of adult female harlequin ducks in relation to history of contamination by the Exxon Valdez oil spill

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esler, Daniel; Schmutz, J.A.; Jarvis, R.L.; Mulcahy, D.M.

    2000-01-01

    Harlequin duck (Histrionicus histrionicus) life-history characteristics make their populations particularly vulnerable to perturbations during nonbreeding periods. The 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill was a major perturbation to nonbreeding habitats of harlequin ducks in Prince William Sound, Alaska, which resulted in population injury. To assess the status of population recovery from the oil spill and to evaluate factors potentially constraining full recovery, we used radiotelemetry to examine survival of adult female harlequin ducks during winters of 1995-96, 1996-97, and 1997-98. We implanted 294 harlequin ducks (154 and 140 in oiled and unoiled areas, respectively) with transmitters and tracked their signals from aircraft during October through March. We examined variation in survival rates relative to area and season (early, mid, and late winter) through comparisons of models using Akaike's information criterion (AIC(c)) values. The 3 models best supported by the data indicated that survival of birds in oiled areas was lower than in unoiled areas. Inclusion of standardized body mass during wing molt in the 3 best models did not improve their fit, indicating that body mass during wing molt did not affect subsequent winter survival. In the model that best fit our data, survival was high in early winter for both areas, lower during mid and late winter seasons, and lowest in oiled areas during mid winter. Cumulative winter survival estimated from this model was 78.0% (SE = 3.3%) in oiled areas and 83.7% (SE = 2.9%) in unoiled areas. We determined that area differences in survival were more likely related to oiling history than intrinsic geographic differences. Based on a demographic model, area differences in survival offer a likely mechanism for observed declines in populations on oiled areas. Concurrent studies indicated that harlequin ducks continued to be exposed to residual Exxon Valdez oil as much as 9 years after the spill. We suggest that oil exposure

  9. Factors Affecting the Survival of Upstream Migrant Adult Salmonids in the Columbia River Basin : Recovery Issues for Threatened and Endangered Snake River Salmon : Technical Report 9 of 11.

    SciTech Connect

    Dauble, Dennis D.; Mueller, Robert P.

    1993-06-01

    The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) is developing conservation planning documentation to support the National Marine Fisheries Service`s (NMFS) recovery plan for Columbia Basin salmonid stocks that are currently listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Information from the conservation planning documentation will be used as a partial scientific basis for identifying alternative conservation strategies and to make recommendations toward conserving, rebuilding, and ultimately removing these salmon stocks from the list of endangered species. This report describes the adult upstream survival study, a synthesis of biological analyses related to conditions affecting the survival of adult upstream migrant salmonids in the Columbia River system. The objective of the adult upstream survival study was to analyze existing data related to increasing the survival of adult migrant salmonids returning to the Snake River system. The fate and accountability of each stock during its upstream migration period and the uncertainties associated with measurements of escapement and survival were evaluated. Operational measures that affected the survival of adult salmon were evaluated including existing conditions, augmented flows from upstream storage release, and drawdown of mainstem reservoirs. The potential impacts and benefits of these measures to each ESA stock were, also described based on considerations of species behavior and run timing.

  10. Lmx1a and Lmx1b regulate mitochondrial functions and survival of adult midbrain dopaminergic neurons.

    PubMed

    Doucet-Beaupré, Hélène; Gilbert, Catherine; Profes, Marcos Schaan; Chabrat, Audrey; Pacelli, Consiglia; Giguère, Nicolas; Rioux, Véronique; Charest, Julien; Deng, Qiaolin; Laguna, Ariadna; Ericson, Johan; Perlmann, Thomas; Ang, Siew-Lan; Cicchetti, Francesca; Parent, Martin; Trudeau, Louis-Eric; Lévesque, Martin

    2016-07-26

    The LIM-homeodomain transcription factors Lmx1a and Lmx1b play critical roles during the development of midbrain dopaminergic progenitors, but their functions in the adult brain remain poorly understood. We show here that sustained expression of Lmx1a and Lmx1b is required for the survival of adult midbrain dopaminergic neurons. Strikingly, inactivation of Lmx1a and Lmx1b recreates cellular features observed in Parkinson's disease. We found that Lmx1a/b control the expression of key genes involved in mitochondrial functions, and their ablation results in impaired respiratory chain activity, increased oxidative stress, and mitochondrial DNA damage. Lmx1a/b deficiency caused axonal pathology characterized by α-synuclein(+) inclusions, followed by a progressive loss of dopaminergic neurons. These results reveal the key role of these transcription factors beyond the early developmental stages and provide mechanistic links between mitochondrial dysfunctions, α-synuclein aggregation, and the survival of dopaminergic neurons. PMID:27407143

  11. Transcriptomics of environmental acclimatization and survival in wild adult Pacific sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during spawning migration.

    PubMed

    Evans, Tyler G; Hammill, Edd; Kaukinen, Karia; Schulze, Angela D; Patterson, David A; English, Karl K; Curtis, Janelle M R; Miller, Kristina M

    2011-11-01

    Environmental shifts accompanying salmon spawning migrations from ocean feeding grounds to natal freshwater streams can be severe, with the underlying stress often cited as a cause of increased mortality. Here, a salmonid microarray was used to characterize changes in gene expression occurring between ocean and river habitats in gill and liver tissues of wild migrating sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka Walbaum) returning to spawn in the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada. Expression profiles indicate that the transcriptome of migrating salmon is strongly affected by shifting abiotic and biotic conditions encountered along migration routes. Conspicuous shifts in gene expression associated with changing salinity, temperature, pathogen exposure and dissolved oxygen indicate that these environmental variables most strongly impact physiology during spawning migrations. Notably, transcriptional changes related to osmoregulation were largely preparatory and occurred well before salmon encountered freshwater. In the river environment, differential expression of genes linked with elevated temperatures indicated that thermal regimes within the Fraser River are approaching tolerance limits for adult salmon. To empirically correlate gene expression with survival, biopsy sampling of gill tissue and transcriptomic profiling were combined with telemetry. Many genes correlated with environmental variables were differentially expressed between premature mortalities and successful migrants. Parametric survival analyses demonstrated a broad-scale transcriptional regulator, cofactor required for Sp1 transcriptional activation (CRSP), to be significantly predictive of survival. As the environmental characteristics of salmon habitats continue to change, establishing how current environmental conditions influence salmon physiology under natural conditions is critical to conserving this ecologically and economically important fish species.

  12. Orthodenticle is necessary for survival of a cluster of clonally related dopaminergic neurons in the Drosophila larval and adult brain

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The dopaminergic (DA) neurons present in the central brain of the Drosophila larva are spatially arranged in stereotyped groups that define clusters of bilaterally symmetrical neurons. These clusters have been classified according to anatomical criteria (position of the cell bodies within the cortex and/or projection pattern of the axonal tracts). However, information pertaining to the developmental biology, such as lineage relationship of clustered DA neurons and differential cell subtype-specific molecular markers and mechanisms of differentiation and/or survival, is currently not available. Results Using MARCM and twin-spot MARCM techniques together with anti-tyrosine hydroxylase immunoreactivity, we have analyzed the larval central brain DA neurons from a developmental point of view and determined their time of birth, their maturation into a DA neurotransmitter phenotype as well as their lineage relationships. In addition, we have found that the homeodomain containing transcription factor Orthodenticle (Otd) is present in a cluster of clonally related DA neurons in both the larval and adult brain. Taking advantage of the otd hypomorphic mutation ocelliless (oc) and the oc2-Gal4 reporter line, we have studied the involvement of orthodenticle (otd) in the survival and/or cell fate specification of these post-mitotic neurons. Conclusions Our findings provide evidence of the presence of seven neuroblast lineages responsible for the generation of the larval central brain DA neurons during embryogenesis. otd is expressed in a defined group of clonally related DA neurons from first instar larvae to adulthood, making it possible to establish an identity relationship between the larval DL2a and the adult PPL2 DA clusters. This poses otd as a lineage-specific and differential marker of a subset of clonally related DA neurons. Finally, we show that otd is required in those DA neurons for their survival. PMID:21999236

  13. Impact of floral feeding on adult Drosophila suzukii survival and nutrient status

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Drosophila suzukii, spotted wing drosophila, is a serious pest of small fruits and cherries in many regions of the world. While host usage has been well studied at the ovipositional and larval feeding stages, little is known about the feeding ecology of adults. This study addressed the impact of fee...

  14. Adding chemo after radiation treatment improves survival for adults with a type of brain tumor

    Cancer.gov

    Adults with low-grade gliomas, a form of brain tumor, who received chemotherapy following completion of radiation therapy lived longer than patients who received radiation therapy alone, according to long-term follow-up results from a NIH-supported random

  15. Sex-biased survival predicts adult sex ratio variation in wild birds

    PubMed Central

    Székely, Tamás; Liker, András; Freckleton, Robert P.; Fichtel, Claudia; Kappeler, Peter M.

    2014-01-01

    Adult sex ratio (ASR) is a central concept in population demography and breeding system evolution, and has implications for population viability and biodiversity conservation. ASR exhibits immense interspecific variation in wild populations, although the causes of this variation have remained elusive. Using phylogenetic analyses of 187 avian species from 59 families, we show that neither hatching sex ratios nor fledging sex ratios correlate with ASR. However, sex-biased adult mortality is a significant predictor of ASR, and this relationship is robust to 100 alternative phylogenetic hypotheses, and potential ecological and life-history confounds. A significant component of adult mortality bias is sexual selection acting on males, whereas increased reproductive output predicts higher mortality in females. These results provide the most comprehensive insights into ASR variation to date, and suggest that ASR is an outcome of selective processes operating differentially on adult males and females. Therefore, revealing the causes of ASR variation in wild populations is essential for understanding breeding systems and population dynamics. PMID:24966308

  16. Effect of methoprene application, adult food and feeding duration on male melon fly starvation survival

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The application of methoprene and access to protein in adult diet has been shown to enhance mating success in male melon fly Bactrocera cucurbitae Coquillett (Diptera: Tephritidae), supporting their incorporation into operational area-wide programmes integrating the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT). T...

  17. Personal and Family Survival. Civil Defense Adult Education Course Student Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Office of Civil Defense (DOD), Washington, DC.

    A manual providing general orientation on the subject of United States civil defense is presented. It can serve as a home reference and as a tool for an adult education class. The nine chapters are: U.S. Civil Defense, Modern Weapons and Radioactive Fallout, Public Fallout Shelters, Fallout Shelter Occupancy, Fallout Protection at Home, Community…

  18. PM2.5 and survival among older adults: Effect modification by particulate composition

    PubMed Central

    Kioumourtzoglou, Marianthi-Anna; Austin, Elena; Koutrakis, Petros; Dominici, Francesca; Schwartz, Joel; Zanobetti, Antonella

    2015-01-01

    Background Fine particulate (PM2.5) air pollution has been consistently linked to survival, but reported effect estimates are geographically heterogeneous. Exposure to different types of particle mixtures may explain some of this variation. Methods We used k-means cluster analyses to identify cities with similar pollution profiles, (i.e. PM2.5 composition) across the US. We examined the impact of PM2.5 on survival, and its variation across clusters of cities with similar PM2.5 composition, among Medicare enrollees in 81 US cities (2000–2010). We used time-varying annual PM2.5 averages, measured at ambient central monitoring sites, as the exposure of interest. We ran by-city Cox models, adjusting for individual data on previous cardiopulmonary-related hospitalizations and stratifying by follow-up time, age, gender and race. This eliminates confounding by factors varying across cities and long-term trends, focusing on year-to-year variations of air pollution around its city-specific mean and trend. We then pooled the city-specific effects using a random effects meta-regression. In this second stage, we also assessed effect modification by cluster membership and estimated cluster-specific PM2.5 effects. Results We followed more than 19 million subjects and observed more than 6 million deaths. We found a harmful impact of annual PM2.5 concentrations on survival (HR = 1.11 [95% confidence interval = 1.01–1.23] per 10 µg/m3). This effect was modified by particulate composition, with higher effects observed in clusters containing high concentrations of nickel, vanadium and sulfate. For instance, our highest effect estimate was observed in cities with harbors in the Northwest, characterized by high nickel, vanadium and elemental carbon concentrations (1.9 [1.1–3.3]). We observed null or negative associations in clusters with high oceanic and crustal particles. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the association between PM2.5 composition

  19. Roles of young serine-endopeptidase genes in survival and reproduction revealed rapid evolution of phenotypic effects at adult stages.

    PubMed

    Chen, Sidi; Yang, Haiwang; Krinsky, Benjamin H; Zhang, Anthony; Long, Manyuan

    2011-01-01

    Our recent study found that 30% of young genes were essential for viability that determines development through stages from embryo to pupae in Drosophila melanogaster, revealing rapidly evolving genetic components involved in the evolution of development. Meanwhile, many young genes did not produce complete lethal phenotype upon constitutive knockdown, suggesting that they may not be essential for viability. These genes, nevertheless, were fixed by natural selection, and might play an important functional role in their adult stage. Here we present a detailed demonstration that a newly duplicated serine-type endopeptidase gene that originated in the common ancestor in the D. melanogaster subgroup 6~11 million years ago, named Slfc, revealing a strong effect in post-eclosion. Although animals survived constitutive knockdown of Slfc to adult stage, however, their life span reduced significantly by two-thirds compared to wildtype. Furthermore, the Slfc-RNAi males dropped their fertility to less than 10% of the wildtype level, with over 80% of these males being sterile. The Slfc-RNAi females, on the other hand, showed a slight reduction in fertility. This case study demonstrates that a young gene can contribute to fitness on the three important traits of life history in adults, including the life expectancy, male fertility and female fertility, suggesting that new genes can quickly evolve and impact multiple phenotypes.

  20. Examining the Racial Crossover in Mortality between African American and White Older Adults: A Multilevel Survival Analysis of Race, Individual Socioeconomic Status, and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Context.

    PubMed

    Yao, Li; Robert, Stephanie A

    2011-01-01

    We examine whether individual and neighborhood socioeconomic context contributes to black/white disparities in mortality among USA older adults. Using national longitudinal data from the Americans' Changing Lives study, along with census tract information for each respondent, we conduct multilevel survival analyses. Results show that black older adults are disadvantaged in mortality in younger old age, but older black adults have lower mortality risk than whites after about age 80. Both individual SES and neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage contribute to the mortality risk of older adults but do not completely explain race differences in mortality. The racial mortality crossover persists even after controlling for multilevel SES, suggesting that black older adults experience selective survival at very old ages. Addressing the individual and neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage of blacks is necessary to reduce mortality disparities that culminate in older adulthood.

  1. Exogenous Modulation of Retinoic Acid Signaling Affects Adult RGC Survival in the Frog Visual System after Optic Nerve Injury

    PubMed Central

    Duprey-Díaz, Mildred V.; Blagburn, Jonathan M.; Blanco, Rosa E.

    2016-01-01

    After lesions to the mammalian optic nerve, the great majority of retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) die before their axons have even had a chance to regenerate. Frog RGCs, on the other hand, suffer only an approximately 50% cell loss, and we have previously investigated the mechanisms by which the application of growth factors can increase their survival rate. Retinoic acid (RA) is a vitamin A-derived lipophilic molecule that plays major roles during development of the nervous system. The RA signaling pathway is also present in parts of the adult nervous system, and components of it are upregulated after injury in peripheral nerves but not in the CNS. Here we investigate whether RA signaling affects long-term RGC survival at 6 weeks after axotomy. Intraocular injection of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), the retinoic acid receptor (RAR) type-α agonist AM80, the RARβ agonist CD2314, or the RARγ agonist CD1530, returned axotomized RGC numbers to almost normal levels. On the other hand, inhibition of RA synthesis with disulfiram, or of RAR receptors with the pan-RAR antagonist Ro-41-5253, or the RARβ antagonist LE135E, greatly reduced the survival of the axotomized neurons. Axotomy elicited a strong activation of the MAPK, STAT3 and AKT pathways; this activation was prevented by disulfiram or by RAR antagonists. Finally, addition of exogenous ATRA stimulated the activation of the first two of these pathways. Future experiments will investigate whether these strong survival-promoting effects of RA are mediated via the upregulation of neurotrophins. PMID:27611191

  2. Exogenous Modulation of Retinoic Acid Signaling Affects Adult RGC Survival in the Frog Visual System after Optic Nerve Injury.

    PubMed

    Duprey-Díaz, Mildred V; Blagburn, Jonathan M; Blanco, Rosa E

    2016-01-01

    After lesions to the mammalian optic nerve, the great majority of retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) die before their axons have even had a chance to regenerate. Frog RGCs, on the other hand, suffer only an approximately 50% cell loss, and we have previously investigated the mechanisms by which the application of growth factors can increase their survival rate. Retinoic acid (RA) is a vitamin A-derived lipophilic molecule that plays major roles during development of the nervous system. The RA signaling pathway is also present in parts of the adult nervous system, and components of it are upregulated after injury in peripheral nerves but not in the CNS. Here we investigate whether RA signaling affects long-term RGC survival at 6 weeks after axotomy. Intraocular injection of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), the retinoic acid receptor (RAR) type-α agonist AM80, the RARβ agonist CD2314, or the RARγ agonist CD1530, returned axotomized RGC numbers to almost normal levels. On the other hand, inhibition of RA synthesis with disulfiram, or of RAR receptors with the pan-RAR antagonist Ro-41-5253, or the RARβ antagonist LE135E, greatly reduced the survival of the axotomized neurons. Axotomy elicited a strong activation of the MAPK, STAT3 and AKT pathways; this activation was prevented by disulfiram or by RAR antagonists. Finally, addition of exogenous ATRA stimulated the activation of the first two of these pathways. Future experiments will investigate whether these strong survival-promoting effects of RA are mediated via the upregulation of neurotrophins. PMID:27611191

  3. Probability and amounts of yogurt intake are differently affected by sociodemographic, economic, and lifestyle factors in adults and the elderly-results from a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Possa, Gabriela; de Castro, Michelle Alessandra; Marchioni, Dirce Maria Lobo; Fisberg, Regina Mara; Fisberg, Mauro

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this population-based cross-sectional health survey (N = 532) was to investigate the factors associated with the probability and amounts of yogurt intake in Brazilian adults and the elderly. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain data on demographics, socioeconomic information, presence of morbidities and lifestyle and anthropometric characteristics. Food intake was evaluated using two nonconsecutive 24-hour dietary recalls and a Food Frequency Questionnaire. Approximately 60% of the subjects were classified as yogurt consumers. In the logistic regression model, yogurt intake was associated with smoking (odds ratio [OR], 1.98), female sex (OR, 2.12), and age 20 to 39 years (OR, 3.11). Per capita family income and being a nonsmoker were factors positively associated with the amount of yogurt consumption (coefficients, 0.61 and 3.73, respectively), whereas the level of education of the head of household was inversely associated (coefficient, 0.61). In this study, probability and amounts of yogurt intake are differently affected by demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle factors in adults and the elderly.

  4. Hydroxyurea-Increased Fetal Hemoglobin Is Associated with Less Organ Damage and Longer Survival in Adults with Sickle Cell Anemia

    PubMed Central

    Fitzhugh, Courtney D.; Hsieh, Matthew M.; Allen, Darlene; Coles, Wynona A.; Seamon, Cassie; Ring, Michael; Zhao, Xiongce; Minniti, Caterina P.; Rodgers, Griffin P.; Schechter, Alan N.; Tisdale, John F.; Taylor, James G.

    2015-01-01

    Background Adults with sickle cell anemia (HbSS) are inconsistently treated with hydroxyurea. Objectives We retrospectively evaluated the effects of elevating fetal hemoglobin with hydroxyurea on organ damage and survival in patients enrolled in our screening study between 2001 and 2010. Methods An electronic medical record facilitated development of a database for comparison of study parameters based on hydroxyurea exposure and dose. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00011648. Results Three hundred eighty-three adults with homozygous sickle cell disease were analyzed with 59 deaths during study follow-up. Cox regression analysis revealed deceased subjects had more hepatic dysfunction (elevated alkaline phosphatase, Hazard Ratio = 1.005, 95% CI 1.003–1.006, p<0.0.0001), kidney dysfunction (elevated creatinine, Hazard Ratio = 1.13, 95% CI 1.00–1.27, p = 0.043), and cardiopulmonary dysfunction (elevated tricuspid jet velocity on echocardiogram, Hazard Ratio = 2.22, 1.23–4.02, p = 0.0082). Sixty-six percent of subjects were treated with hydroxyurea, although only 66% of those received a dose within the recommended therapeutic range. Hydroxyurea use was associated with improved survival (Hazard Ratio = 0.58, 95% CI 0.34–0.97, p = 0.040). This effect was most pronounced in those taking the recommended dose of 15–35 mg/kg/day (Hazard Ratio 0.36, 95% CI 0.17–0.73, p = 0.0050). Hydroxyurea use was not associated with changes in organ function over time. Further, subjects with higher fetal hemoglobin responses to hydroxyurea were more likely to survive (p = 0.0004). While alkaline phosphatase was lowest in patients with the best fetal hemoglobin response (95.4 versus 123.6, p = 0.0065 and 96.1 versus 113.6U/L, p = 0.041 at first and last visits, respectively), other markers of organ damage were not consistently improved over time in patients with the highest fetal hemoglobin levels. Conclusions Our data suggest that adults should be

  5. Acquired genomic copy number aberrations and survival in adult acute myelogenous leukemia.

    PubMed

    Parkin, Brian; Erba, Harry; Ouillette, Peter; Roulston, Diane; Purkayastha, Anjali; Karp, Judith; Talpaz, Moshe; Kujawski, Lisa; Shakhan, Sajid; Li, Cheng; Shedden, Kerby; Malek, Sami N

    2010-12-01

    Genomic aberrations are of predominant importance to the biology and clinical outcome of patients with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML), and conventional karyotype-based risk classifications are routinely used in clinical decision making in AML. One of the known limitations of cytogenetic analysis is the inability to detect genomic abnormalities less than 5 Mb in size, and it is currently unclear whether overcoming this limitation with high-resolution genomic single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array analysis would be clinically relevant. Furthermore, given the heterogeneity of molecular mechanisms/aberrations that underlie the conventional karyotype-based risk classifications, it is likely that further refinements in genomic risk prognostication can be achieved. In this study, we analyzed flow cytometer-sorted, AML blast-derived, and paired, buccal DNA from 114 previously untreated prospectively enrolled AML patients for acquired genomic copy number changes and loss of heterozygosity using Affymetrix SNP 6.0 arrays, and we correlated genomic lesion load and specific chromosomal abnormalities with patient survival. Using multivariate analyses, we found that having ≥ 2 genomic lesions detected through SNP 6.0 array profiling approximately doubles the risk of death when controlling for age- and karyotype-based risk. Finally, we identified an independent negative prognostic impact of p53 mutations, or p53 mutations and 17p-loss of heterozygosity combined on survival in AML.

  6. An estimate of the survival benefit of improving vitamin D status in the adult german population

    PubMed Central

    von Helden, Raimund; Grant, William; Kipshoven, Christoph; Ringe, Johann D

    2009-01-01

    Background Inadequate vitamin D status is a worldwide problem. Evidence is accumulating that individuals with low vitamin D status have excess mortality rates. We calculated to which extent annual mortality rates can be reduced in the German population by optimizing vitamin D status. Results Mean serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D in the DEVID study cohort were 41 nmol/l (SD: 22 nmol/l). More than 90% of individuals had 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations below the threshold that was associated with lowest mortality risk in the two aforementioned trials (75 nmol/l). According to conservative estimations, at least 2.2% of all deaths or 18,300 lives annually can be saved by achieving 25(OH)D concentrations of at least 75 nmol/l in the entire adult German population. Available data provide evidence for an exponential increase in total mortality with deficient 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations. Methods Our calculations are based on (1) an annual mortality rate of 1.34% in the adult German population as provided by the Statistical Yearbook, (2) the actual vitamin D status in German adults with a high mortality risk as assessed in 1,343 individuals from 264 general practitioners in different German regions (DEVID study), and (3) data from two very large prospective cohorts (Dobnig et al. 2008; Melamed et al. 2008) about the excess mortality in individuals with inadequate vitamin D status. Conclusion Improving vitamin D status in a population with inadequate vitamin D status might be an effective strategy to reduce annual mortality rates. PMID:21572875

  7. Relative influence of human harvest, carnivores, and weather on adult female elk survival across western North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brodie, Jedediah; Johnson, Heather; Mitchell, Michael; Zager, Peter; Proffitt, Kelly; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kauffman, Matthew; Johnson, Bruce; Bissonette, John; Bishop, Chad; Gude, Justin; Herbert, Jeff; Hersey, Kent; Hurley, Mark; Lukacs, Paul M.; McCorquodale, Scott; McIntire, Eliot; Nowak, Josh; Sawyer, Hall; Smith, Douglas; White, P.J.

    2013-01-01

    Well-informed management of harvested species requires understanding how changing ecological conditions affect demography and population dynamics, information that is lacking for many species. We have limited understanding of the relative influence of carnivores, harvest, weather and forage availability on elk Cervus elaphus demography, despite the ecological and economic importance of this species. We assessed adult female survival, a key vital rate for population dynamics, from 2746 radio-collared elk in 45 populations across western North America that experience wide variation in carnivore assemblage, harvest, weather and habitat conditions. Proportional hazard analysis revealed that 'baseline' (i.e. not related to human factors) mortality was higher with very high winter precipitation, particularly in populations sympatric with wolves Canis lupus. Mortality may increase via nutritional stress and heightened vulnerability to predation in snowy winters. Baseline mortality was unrelated to puma Puma concolor presence, forest cover or summer forage productivity. Cause-specific mortality analyses showed that wolves and all carnivore species combined had additive effects on baseline elk mortality, but only reduced survival by <2%. When human factors were included, ‘total’ adult mortality was solely related to harvest; the influence of native carnivores was compensatory. Annual total mortality rates were lowest in populations sympatric with both pumas and wolves because managers reduced female harvest in areas with abundant or diverse carnivores. Mortality from native carnivores peaked in late winter and early spring, while harvest-induced mortality peaked in autumn. The strong peak in harvest-induced mortality during the autumn hunting season decreased as the number of native carnivore species increased. Synthesis and applications. Elevated baseline adult female elk mortality from wolves in years with high winter precipitation could affect elk abundance as

  8. Effect of sucrose octanoate on survival of nymphal and adult Diaphorina citri (Homoptera: Psyllidae).

    PubMed

    McKenzie, C L; Puterka, Gary J

    2004-06-01

    Asian citrus psylla, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Homoptera: Psyllidae) was detected for the first time in the United States near Delray Beach, FL, on 2 June 1998 and is continuing to spread and multiply throughout southern Florida. This psyllid is the vector of Liberobacter asiaticum, a phloem-limited bacterium that causes citrus greening disease. This pathogen has not been found in the Western Hemisphere to date. Furthermore, high infestation levels of D. citri can impact citrus plant health, fruit quality, or yield. Replicated laboratory and spray booth bioassays were conducted to determine the insecticidal activity of a synthetic analog of natural sugar esters found in leaf trichomes of wild tobacco, Nicotiatna gossei Domin, to nymphal and adult D. citri. Field trials were initiated in Fort Pierce, FL, in 2000 to determine activity of the sugar ester formulation (sucrose octanoate) on D. citri and other citrus pests, including immature Asian citrus leafminer, Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton and mites. Sucrose octanoate rates tested ranged from 400 to 8000 ppm (0.1-2% formulated product). Our data suggest that both nymphal and adult D. citri as well as the mite complex tested would be equally controlled to levels of >90% at the higher concentrations of sucrose octanoate and that good coverage is key to efficacy.

  9. Lesion-induced accumulation of platelets promotes survival of adult neural stem / progenitor cells.

    PubMed

    Kazanis, Ilias; Feichtner, Martina; Lange, Simona; Rotheneichner, Peter; Hainzl, Stefan; Öller, Michaela; Schallmoser, Katharina; Rohde, Eva; Reitsamer, Herbert A; Couillard-Despres, Sebastien; Bauer, Hans-Christian; Franklin, Robin J M; Aigner, Ludwig; Rivera, Francisco J

    2015-07-01

    The presence of neural stem/progenitor cells (NSPCs) in specific areas of the central nervous system (CNS) supports tissue maintenance as well as regeneration. The subependymal zone (SEZ), located at the lateral ventricle's wall, represents a niche for NSPCs and in response to stroke or demyelination becomes activated with progenitors migrating towards the lesion and differentiating into neurons and glia. The mechanisms that underlie this phenomenon remain largely unknown. The vascular niche and in particular blood-derived elements such as platelets, has been shown to contribute to CNS regeneration in different pathological conditions. Indeed, intracerebroventricularly administrated platelet lysate (PL) stimulates angiogenesis, neurogenesis and neuroprotection in the damaged CNS. Here, we explored the presence of platelets in the activated SEZ after a focal demyelinating lesion in the corpus callosum of mice and we studied the effects of PL on proliferating SEZ-derived NSPCs in vitro. We showed that the lesion-induced increase in the size of the SEZ and in the number of proliferating SEZ-resident NSPCs correlates with the accumulation of platelets specifically along the activated SEZ vasculature. Expanding on this finding, we demonstrated that exposure of NSPCs to PL in vitro led to increased numbers of cells by enhanced cell survival and reduced apoptosis without differences in proliferation and in the differentiation potential of NSPCs. Finally, we demonstrate that the accumulation of platelets within the SEZ is spatially correlated with reduced numbers of apoptotic cells when compared to other periventricular areas. In conclusion, our results show that platelet-derived compounds specifically promote SEZ-derived NSPC survival and suggest that platelets might contribute to the enlargement of the pool of SEZ NSPCs that are available for CNS repair in response to injury.

  10. Lesion-induced accumulation of platelets promotes survival of adult neural stem / progenitor cells.

    PubMed

    Kazanis, Ilias; Feichtner, Martina; Lange, Simona; Rotheneichner, Peter; Hainzl, Stefan; Öller, Michaela; Schallmoser, Katharina; Rohde, Eva; Reitsamer, Herbert A; Couillard-Despres, Sebastien; Bauer, Hans-Christian; Franklin, Robin J M; Aigner, Ludwig; Rivera, Francisco J

    2015-07-01

    The presence of neural stem/progenitor cells (NSPCs) in specific areas of the central nervous system (CNS) supports tissue maintenance as well as regeneration. The subependymal zone (SEZ), located at the lateral ventricle's wall, represents a niche for NSPCs and in response to stroke or demyelination becomes activated with progenitors migrating towards the lesion and differentiating into neurons and glia. The mechanisms that underlie this phenomenon remain largely unknown. The vascular niche and in particular blood-derived elements such as platelets, has been shown to contribute to CNS regeneration in different pathological conditions. Indeed, intracerebroventricularly administrated platelet lysate (PL) stimulates angiogenesis, neurogenesis and neuroprotection in the damaged CNS. Here, we explored the presence of platelets in the activated SEZ after a focal demyelinating lesion in the corpus callosum of mice and we studied the effects of PL on proliferating SEZ-derived NSPCs in vitro. We showed that the lesion-induced increase in the size of the SEZ and in the number of proliferating SEZ-resident NSPCs correlates with the accumulation of platelets specifically along the activated SEZ vasculature. Expanding on this finding, we demonstrated that exposure of NSPCs to PL in vitro led to increased numbers of cells by enhanced cell survival and reduced apoptosis without differences in proliferation and in the differentiation potential of NSPCs. Finally, we demonstrate that the accumulation of platelets within the SEZ is spatially correlated with reduced numbers of apoptotic cells when compared to other periventricular areas. In conclusion, our results show that platelet-derived compounds specifically promote SEZ-derived NSPC survival and suggest that platelets might contribute to the enlargement of the pool of SEZ NSPCs that are available for CNS repair in response to injury. PMID:25819103

  11. Spawning areas of eastern Baltic cod revisited: Using hydrodynamic modelling to reveal spawning habitat suitability, egg survival probability, and connectivity patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinrichsen, H.-H.; Lehmann, A.; Petereit, C.; Nissling, A.; Ustups, D.; Bergström, U.; Hüssy, K.

    2016-04-01

    In the highly variable environment of the Baltic Sea two genetically distinct cod stocks exist, one west of the island of Bornholm, which is referred to as the western stock, and one to the east of Bornholm, the eastern stock. A hydrodynamic model combined with a Lagrangian particle tracking technique was utilised to provide spatially and temporally resolved long-term information on environmentally-related (i) spawning habitat size, (ii) egg/yolk-sac larval survival, (iii) separation of causes of mortality, and (iv) connectivity between spawning areas of eastern Baltic cod. Simulations were performed to quantify processes generating heterogeneity in spatial distribution of cod eggs and yolk sac larvae up to the first-feeding stage. The spatial extent of cod eggs represented as virtual drifters is primarily determined by oxygen and salinity conditions at spawning, which define the habitat requirement to which cod's physiology is suited for egg development. The highest habitat suitability occurred in the Bornholm Basin, followed by the Gdansk Deep, while relatively low habitat suitability was obtained for the Arkona and the Gotland Basin. During drift egg and yolk sac larval survival is to a large extent affected by sedimentation. Eggs initially released in the western spawning grounds (Arkona and Bornholm Basin) were more affected by sedimentation than those released in the eastern spawning grounds (Gdansk Deep and Gotland Basin). Highest relative survival of eastern Baltic cod eggs occurred in the Bornholm Basin, with a pronounced decrease towards the Gdansk Deep and the Gotland Basin. Relatively low survival rates in the Gdansk Deep and in the Gotland Basin were attributable to oxygen-dependent mortality. Low oxygen content had almost no impact on survival in the Arkona Basin. For all spawning areas temperature dependent mortality was only evident after severe winters. Egg buoyancy in relation to topographic features like bottom sills and strong bottom slopes

  12. Self Perceptions of Young Adults who Survived Severe Childhood Burn Injury

    PubMed Central

    Russell, W; Robert, RS; Thomas, CR; Holzer, CE; Blakeney, P; Meyer, WJ

    2012-01-01

    Objective The transition of pediatric burn survivors into adulthood is accompanied by a reformulation of their self concept. In order to anticipate the need for and guide development of appropriate psychosocial interventions, this study examines how young adults who were burned as children perceive themselves and how this perception might affect their self-esteem. Method 82 young adult burn survivors (45 males, 37 females) were assessed using the Tennessee Self-Concept, 2nd Edition (TSCS2) to determine how the participants perceive themselves and their interaction with society. To gain insight into the possible effects of these self-concept scores, relationships were analyzed between self-concept, a behavioral assessment (Young Adult Self-Report, YASR) and a psychiatric symptom assessment (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders, SCID I). Results This group of burn survivors scored significantly lower in self-concepts, reflected in TSCS2 sub-scale scores of Physical function, appearance, and sexuality, Moral conduct, Personal values, Academics and work, and Identity than did the reference population. Pearson correlation coefficients showed that as Moral, Personal, Family and Social aspects of self concept decreased, clinical problems endorsed on the YASR sub-scales increased, including Anxiety Somatic, Attention, Intrusive and Aggressive. Persons with lower self-concept scores on the TSCS2 Personal, Family, and Social Scales, were more withdrawn on the YASR. Similarly those with lower TSCS2 scores on the Personal and Family Scales endorsed significantly more Thought Problems on the YASR. Affective distress on the SCID I was associated with significantly lower self concept. TSCS2 Total Self Concept, Personal, and all of the Supplementary Scale scores were significantly lower for the group with an affective disorder. Those whose SCID I scores were consistent with a current anxiety disorder had significantly lower scores for the TSCS2 Total Self

  13. Self-perceptions of young adults who survived severe childhood burn injury.

    PubMed

    Russell, William; Robert, Rhonda S; Thomas, Christopher R; Holzer, Charles E; Blakeney, Patricia; Meyer, Walter J

    2013-01-01

    The transition of pediatric burn survivors into adulthood is accompanied by a reformulation of their self-concept. To anticipate the need for and guide development of appropriate psychosocial interventions, this study examines how young adults who were burned as children perceive themselves and how this perception might affect their self-esteem. Eighty-two young adult burn survivors (45 male, 37 female) were assessed using the Tennessee Self-Concept Scale, 2nd edition (TSCS2) to determine how the participants perceive themselves and their interaction with society. To gain insight into the possible effects of these self-concept scores, relationships were analyzed between self-concept, a behavioral assessment (Young Adult Self-Report [YASR]), and a psychiatric symptom assessment (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders [SCID I]). This group of burn survivors scored significantly lower in self-concepts, reflected in TSCS2 subscale scores of physical function, appearance, and sexuality, moral conduct, personal values, academics and work, and identity, than did the reference population. Pearson correlation coefficients showed that as moral, personal, family, and social aspects of self-concept decreased, clinical problems endorsed on the YASR subscales increased, including anxiety, somatic, attention, intrusive, and aggressive. Persons with lower self-concept scores on the TSCS2 personal, family, and social scales were more withdrawn on the YASR. Similarly, those with lower TSCS2 scores on the personal and family scales endorsed significantly more thought problems on the YASR. TSCS2 total self-concept, personal, and all of the supplementary scale scores were significantly lower for the group with an affective disorder. Those whose SCID I scores were consistent with a current anxiety disorder had significantly lower scores for the TSCS2 total self-concept and personal. Lower self-concept was associated with endorsement of SCID symptoms. In summary, the

  14. Self-perceptions of young adults who survived severe childhood burn injury.

    PubMed

    Russell, William; Robert, Rhonda S; Thomas, Christopher R; Holzer, Charles E; Blakeney, Patricia; Meyer, Walter J

    2013-01-01

    The transition of pediatric burn survivors into adulthood is accompanied by a reformulation of their self-concept. To anticipate the need for and guide development of appropriate psychosocial interventions, this study examines how young adults who were burned as children perceive themselves and how this perception might affect their self-esteem. Eighty-two young adult burn survivors (45 male, 37 female) were assessed using the Tennessee Self-Concept Scale, 2nd edition (TSCS2) to determine how the participants perceive themselves and their interaction with society. To gain insight into the possible effects of these self-concept scores, relationships were analyzed between self-concept, a behavioral assessment (Young Adult Self-Report [YASR]), and a psychiatric symptom assessment (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders [SCID I]). This group of burn survivors scored significantly lower in self-concepts, reflected in TSCS2 subscale scores of physical function, appearance, and sexuality, moral conduct, personal values, academics and work, and identity, than did the reference population. Pearson correlation coefficients showed that as moral, personal, family, and social aspects of self-concept decreased, clinical problems endorsed on the YASR subscales increased, including anxiety, somatic, attention, intrusive, and aggressive. Persons with lower self-concept scores on the TSCS2 personal, family, and social scales were more withdrawn on the YASR. Similarly, those with lower TSCS2 scores on the personal and family scales endorsed significantly more thought problems on the YASR. TSCS2 total self-concept, personal, and all of the supplementary scale scores were significantly lower for the group with an affective disorder. Those whose SCID I scores were consistent with a current anxiety disorder had significantly lower scores for the TSCS2 total self-concept and personal. Lower self-concept was associated with endorsement of SCID symptoms. In summary, the

  15. Retinal Microvasculature Is Associated With Long-Term Survival in the General Adult Dutch Population.

    PubMed

    Mutlu, Unal; Ikram, M Kamran; Wolters, Frank J; Hofman, Albert; Klaver, Caroline C W; Ikram, M Arfan

    2016-02-01

    Retinal vascular diameters are associated with (sub)clinical cardiovascular disease and short-term cardiovascular mortality, but their association with long-term mortality is uncertain. We studied the association of retinal vascular diameters with cause-specific mortality in the general adult Dutch population during 25 years of follow-up. From 1990 to 1993, arteriolar and venular diameters were measured semiautomatically on digitized images in 5674 persons (mean age 68.0 years, 59% women) from the population-based Rotterdam study. Follow-up for mortality was complete till March 2015. Associations between vascular diameters and mortality were examined using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, and the fellow vessel diameter. During 85 770 person-years (mean±SD: 15.1±6.67), 3794 (66.8%) persons died, of whom 1034 due to cardiovascular causes. We found that narrower arterioles and wider venules were associated with higher risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] per SD decrease 1.04 [1.00-1.08] and increase 1.07 [1.03-1.12], respectively). For arterioles, these associations were strongest for cardiovascular mortality, whereas venules showed consistent associations for cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality. Importantly, these associations remained unchanged after excluding the first 10 years of follow-up as immortal person-time. We found evidence for effect modification with stronger associations in persons <70 years (venules only) and smokers (P value for interaction<0.01). We replicated our findings in another independent cohort from the Rotterdam Study of 3106 persons with 19 880 person-years of follow-up and 144 deaths (hazard ratio for venules 1.22 [1.00-1.49]). Markers of retinal microvasculature are associated with long-term mortality in the general adult Dutch population. PMID:26628677

  16. A Single Hot Event Stimulates Adult Performance but Reduces Egg Survival in the Oriental Fruit Moth, Grapholitha molesta

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Gang; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Ma, Chun-Sen

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to increase the exposure of insects to hot events (involving a few hours at extreme high temperatures). These events are unlikely to cause widespread mortality but may modify population dynamics via impacting life history traits such as adult fecundity and egg hatching. These effects and their potential impact on population predictions are still largely unknown. In this study, we simulated a single hot event (maximum of 38°C lasting for 4 h) of a magnitude increasingly found under field conditions and examined its effect in the oriental fruit moth, Grapholitha molesta. This hot event had no impact on the survival of G. molesta adults, copulation periods or male longevity. However, the event increased female lifespan and the length of the oviposition period, leading to a potential increase in lifetime fecundity and suggesting hormesis. In contrast, exposure of males to this event markedly reduced the net reproductive value. Male heat treatment delayed the onset of oviposition in the females they mated with, as well as causing a decrease in the duration of oviposition period and lifetime fecundity. Both male and female stress also reduced egg hatch. Our findings of hormetic effects on female performance but concurrent detrimental effects on egg hatch suggest that hot events have unpredictable consequences on the population dynamics of this pest species with implications for likely effects associated with climate warming. PMID:25551751

  17. Induced Probabilities.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neel, John H.

    Induced probabilities have been largely ignored by educational researchers. Simply stated, if a new or random variable is defined in terms of a first random variable, then induced probability is the probability or density of the new random variable that can be found by summation or integration over the appropriate domains of the original random…

  18. Hate crimes and stigma-related experiences among sexual minority adults in the United States: prevalence estimates from a national probability sample.

    PubMed

    Herek, Gregory M

    2009-01-01

    Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or property crime based on their sexual orientation; about half had experienced verbal harassment, and more than 1 in 10 reported having experienced employment or housing discrimination. Gay men were significantly more likely than lesbians or bisexuals to experience violence and property crimes. Employment and housing discrimination were significantly more likely among gay men and lesbians than among bisexual men and women. Implications for future research and policy are discussed.

  19. Social Cohesion and Mortality: A Survival Analysis of Older Adults in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Yorifuji, Takashi; Takao, Soshi; Doi, Hiroyuki; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2013-01-01

    Objectives. We examined the association between social cohesion and mortality in a sample of older adults in Japan. Methods. Data were derived from a cohort study of elderly individuals (65–84 years) in Shizuoka Prefecture; 14 001 participants were enrolled at baseline (1999) and followed up in 2002, 2006, and 2009. Among the 11 092 participants for whom we had complete data, 1427 had died during follow-up. We examined the association between social cohesion (assessed at both the community and individual levels) and subsequent mortality after control for baseline and time-varying covariates. We used clustered proportional hazard regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs). Results. After control for individual characteristics, individual perceptions of community cohesion were associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.73, 0.84) as well as mortality from cardiovascular disease (HR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.67, 0.84), pulmonary disease (HR = 0.66; 95% CI = 0.58, 0.75), and all other causes (HR = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.66, 0.89). However, no statistically significant relationship was found between community cohesion and mortality risk. Conclusions. Among the elderly in Japan, more positive individual perceptions of community cohesion are associated with reduced risks of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. PMID:24134379

  20. Home Economics Semester Modules: Adult Living, Bachelor Survival, Foods and You, Home Decor, Personal Finance, Teen Clothing, Young Child. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lehighton Area School District, PA.

    This curriculum guide consists of course modules for instruction at the secondary level. Each module contains a concept title, major generalization, behavioral objective, subgeneralizations, list of learning experiences, and resources. The courses are entitled: Adult Living, Bachelor Survival, Foods and You, Home Decor, Personal Finance, Teen…

  1. Divergences in trends in child and adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: survey evidence on the survival of children and siblings.

    PubMed

    Masquelier, Bruno; Reniers, Georges; Pison, Gilles

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of trends in mortality in children aged under 5 and adults between the ages of 15 and 60 in sub-Saharan Africa, using data on the survival of the children and siblings collected in Demographic and Health Surveys. If conspicuous stalls in the 1990s are disregarded, child mortality levels have generally declined and converged over the last 30-40 years. In contrast, adult mortality in many East and Southern African countries has increased markedly, echoing earlier increases in the incidence of HIV. In recent years, adult mortality levels have begun to decline once again in East Africa, in some instances before the large-scale expansion of antiretroviral therapy programmes. More surprising is the lack of sustained improvements in adult survival in some countries that have not experienced severe HIV epidemics. Because trends in child and adult mortality do not always evolve in tandem, we argue that model-based estimates, inferred by matching indices of child survival onto standard mortality schedules, can be very misleading.

  2. Genetic control of adult neurogenesis: interplay of differentiation, proliferation and survival modulates new neurons function, and memory circuits

    PubMed Central

    Tirone, Felice; Farioli-Vecchioli, Stefano; Micheli, Laura; Ceccarelli, Manuela; Leonardi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Within the hippocampal circuitry, the basic function of the dentate gyrus is to transform the memory input coming from the enthorinal cortex into sparse and categorized outputs to CA3, in this way separating related memory information. New neurons generated in the dentate gyrus during adulthood appear to facilitate this process, allowing a better separation between closely spaced memories (pattern separation). The evidence underlying this model has been gathered essentially by ablating the newly adult-generated neurons. This approach, however, does not allow monitoring of the integration of new neurons into memory circuits and is likely to set in motion compensatory circuits, possibly leading to an underestimation of the role of new neurons. Here we review the background of the basic function of the hippocampus and of the known properties of new adult-generated neurons. In this context, we analyze the cognitive performance in mouse models generated by us and others, with modified expression of the genes Btg2 (PC3/Tis21), Btg1, Pten, BMP4, etc., where new neurons underwent a change in their differentiation rate or a partial decrease of their proliferation or survival rate rather than ablation. The effects of these modifications are equal or greater than full ablation, suggesting that the architecture of circuits, as it unfolds from the interaction between existing and new neurons, can have a greater functional impact than the sheer number of new neurons. We propose a model which attempts to measure and correlate the set of cellular changes in the process of neurogenesis with the memory function. PMID:23734097

  3. Recent trends in survival of adult patients with acute leukemia: overall improvements, but persistent and partly increasing disparity in survival of patients from minority groups.

    PubMed

    Pulte, Dianne; Redaniel, Maria Theresa; Jansen, Lina; Brenner, Hermann; Jeffreys, Mona

    2013-02-01

    The survival of younger patients with acute leukemia has improved in the early 21(st) century, but it is unknown whether people of all ethnic and racial backgrounds have benefited equally. Using cancer registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program, we assessed trends in 5-year relative survival for patients aged 15 years or more with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and acute myeloblastic leukemia divided by racial and ethnic group, including non-Hispanic whites, African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asian-Pacific Islanders in the 1990s and the early 21(st) century. Modeled period analysis was used to obtain the most up-to-date estimates of survival. Overall, the 5-year survival increased from 31.6% in 1997-2002 to 39.0% in 2003-2008 for patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and from 15.5% in 1991-1996 to 22.5% in 2003-2008 for those with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Nevertheless, among patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, age-adjusted 5-year relative survival rates remained lower for African-Americans and Hispanics than for non-Hispanic whites. Among patients with acute myeloblastic leukemia, the increase in survival was greatest (from 32.6% in 1991-1996 to 47.1% in 2003-2008) for younger patients (15-54 years), and was more pronounced for non-Hispanic whites (+16.4% units) than for other patients (+10.8% units). Increases in survival are observed in all ethnic or racial groups. Nevertheless, among patients with acute leukemias, disparities in survival persist between non-Hispanic white people and people of other ethnic or racial groups. Disparities are increasing in younger patients with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Improvements in access to treatment, especially for minority patients, may improve outcomes.

  4. Recent trends in survival of adult patients with acute leukemia: overall improvements, but persistent and partly increasing disparity in survival of patients from minority groups

    PubMed Central

    Pulte, Dianne; Redaniel, Maria Theresa; Jansen, Lina; Brenner, Hermann; Jeffreys, Mona

    2013-01-01

    The survival of younger patients with acute leukemia has improved in the early 21st century, but it is unknown whether people of all ethnic and racial backgrounds have benefited equally. Using cancer registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program, we assessed trends in 5-year relative survival for patients aged 15 years or more with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and acute myeloblastic leukemia divided by racial and ethnic group, including non-Hispanic whites, African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asian-Pacific Islanders in the 1990s and the early 21st century. Modeled period analysis was used to obtain the most up-to-date estimates of survival. Overall, the 5-year survival increased from 31.6% in 1997-2002 to 39.0% in 2003-2008 for patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and from 15.5% in 1991-1996 to 22.5% in 2003-2008 for those with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Nevertheless, among patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, age-adjusted 5-year relative survival rates remained lower for African-Americans and Hispanics than for non-Hispanic whites. Among patients with acute myeloblastic leukemia, the increase in survival was greatest (from 32.6% in 1991-1996 to 47.1% in 2003-2008) for younger patients (15-54 years), and was more pronounced for non-Hispanic whites (+16.4% units) than for other patients (+10.8% units). Increases in survival are observed in all ethnic or racial groups. Nevertheless, among patients with acute leukemias, disparities in survival persist between non-Hispanic white people and people of other ethnic or racial groups. Disparities are increasing in younger patients with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Improvements in access to treatment, especially for minority patients, may improve outcomes. PMID:22929974

  5. Improved graft-versus-host disease-free, relapse-free survival associated with bone marrow as the stem cell source in adults

    PubMed Central

    Mehta, Rohtesh S.; de Latour, Regis Peffault; DeFor, Todd E; Robin, Marie; Lazaryan, Aleksandr; Xhaard, Aliénor; Bejanyan, Nelli; de Fontbrune, Flore Sicre; Arora, Mukta; Brunstein, Claudio G.; Blazar, Bruce R.; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; MacMillan, Margaret L.; Socie, Gerard; Holtan, Shernan G.

    2016-01-01

    We previously reported that bone marrow grafts from matched sibling donors resulted in best graft-versus-host disease-free, relapse-free survival at 1-year post allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation. However, pediatric patients comprised the majority of bone marrow graft recipients in that study. To better define this outcome in adults and pediatric patients at 1- and 2-years post- allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation, we pooled data from the University of Minnesota and the Hôpital Saint-Louis in Paris, France (n=1901). Graft-versus-host disease-free, relapse-free survival was defined as the absence of grade III–IV acute graft-versus-host disease, chronic graft-versus-host disease (requiring systemic therapy or extensive stage), relapse and death. In adults, bone marrow from matched sibling donors (n=123) had best graft-versus-host disease-free, relapse-free survival at 1- and 2-years, compared with peripheral blood stem cell from matched sibling donors (n=540) or other graft/donor types. In multivariate analysis, peripheral blood stem cells from matched sibling donors resulted in a 50% increased risk of events contributing to graft-versus-host disease-free, relapse-free survival at 1- and 2-years than bone marrow from matched sibling donors. With limited numbers of peripheral blood stem cell grafts in pediatric patients (n=12), graft-versus-host disease-free, relapse-free survival did not differ between bone marrow and peripheral blood stem cell graft from any donor. While not all patients have a matched sibling donor, graft-versus-host disease-free, relapse-free survival may be improved by the preferential use of bone marrow for adults with malignant diseases. Alternatively, novel graft-versus-host disease prophylaxis regimens are needed to substantially impact graft-versus-host disease-free, relapse-free survival with the use of peripheral blood stem cell. PMID:27036159

  6. Probability Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaynes, E. T.; Bretthorst, G. Larry

    2003-04-01

    Foreword; Preface; Part I. Principles and Elementary Applications: 1. Plausible reasoning; 2. The quantitative rules; 3. Elementary sampling theory; 4. Elementary hypothesis testing; 5. Queer uses for probability theory; 6. Elementary parameter estimation; 7. The central, Gaussian or normal distribution; 8. Sufficiency, ancillarity, and all that; 9. Repetitive experiments, probability and frequency; 10. Physics of 'random experiments'; Part II. Advanced Applications: 11. Discrete prior probabilities, the entropy principle; 12. Ignorance priors and transformation groups; 13. Decision theory: historical background; 14. Simple applications of decision theory; 15. Paradoxes of probability theory; 16. Orthodox methods: historical background; 17. Principles and pathology of orthodox statistics; 18. The Ap distribution and rule of succession; 19. Physical measurements; 20. Model comparison; 21. Outliers and robustness; 22. Introduction to communication theory; References; Appendix A. Other approaches to probability theory; Appendix B. Mathematical formalities and style; Appendix C. Convolutions and cumulants.

  7. Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama

    PubMed Central

    Neira, Marco; Lacroix, Renaud; Cáceres, Lorenzo; Kaiser, Paul E; Young, Josue; Pineda, Lleysa; Black, Isaac; Sosa, Nestor; Nimmo, Derric; Alphey, Luke; McKemey, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed. PMID:25410991

  8. Effects of low level laser treatment on the survival of axotomized retinal ganglion cells in adult Hamsters

    PubMed Central

    So, Kwok-Fai; Leung, Mason Chin Pang; Cui, Qi

    2014-01-01

    Injury to axons close to the neuronal bodies in the mammalian central nervous system causes a large proportion of parenting neurons to degenerate. It is known that optic nerve transection close to the eye in rodents leads to a loss of about half of retinal ganglion cells in 1 week and about 90% in 2 weeks. Using low level laser treatment in the present study, we demonstrated that treatment with helium-neon (660 nm) laser with 15 mW power could delay retinal ganglion cell death after optic nerve axotomy in adult hamsters. The effect was most apparent in the first week with a short period of treatment time (5 minutes) in which 65–66% of retinal ganglion cells survived the optic nerve axotomy whereas 45–47% of retinal ganglion cells did so in optic nerve axotomy controls. We also found that single dose and early commencement of laser irradiation were important in protecting retinal ganglion cells following optic nerve axotomy. These findings thus convincingly show that appropriate laser treatment may be neuroprotective to retinal ganglion cells. PMID:25558230

  9. Effects of low level laser treatment on the survival of axotomized retinal ganglion cells in adult Hamsters.

    PubMed

    So, Kwok-Fai; Leung, Mason Chin Pang; Cui, Qi

    2014-11-01

    Injury to axons close to the neuronal bodies in the mammalian central nervous system causes a large proportion of parenting neurons to degenerate. It is known that optic nerve transection close to the eye in rodents leads to a loss of about half of retinal ganglion cells in 1 week and about 90% in 2 weeks. Using low level laser treatment in the present study, we demonstrated that treatment with helium-neon (660 nm) laser with 15 mW power could delay retinal ganglion cell death after optic nerve axotomy in adult hamsters. The effect was most apparent in the first week with a short period of treatment time (5 minutes) in which 65-66% of retinal ganglion cells survived the optic nerve axotomy whereas 45-47% of retinal ganglion cells did so in optic nerve axotomy controls. We also found that single dose and early commencement of laser irradiation were important in protecting retinal ganglion cells following optic nerve axotomy. These findings thus convincingly show that appropriate laser treatment may be neuroprotective to retinal ganglion cells. PMID:25558230

  10. Induced neural stem cells achieve long-term survival and functional integration in the adult mouse brain.

    PubMed

    Hemmer, Kathrin; Zhang, Mingyue; van Wüllen, Thea; Sakalem, Marna; Tapia, Natalia; Baumuratov, Aidos; Kaltschmidt, Christian; Kaltschmidt, Barbara; Schöler, Hans R; Zhang, Weiqi; Schwamborn, Jens C

    2014-09-01

    Differentiated cells can be converted directly into multipotent neural stem cells (i.e., induced neural stem cells [iNSCs]). iNSCs offer an attractive alternative to induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) technology with regard to regenerative therapies. Here, we show an in vivo long-term analysis of transplanted iNSCs in the adult mouse brain. iNSCs showed sound in vivo long-term survival rates without graft overgrowths. The cells displayed a neural multilineage potential with a clear bias toward astrocytes and a permanent downregulation of progenitor and cell-cycle markers, indicating that iNSCs are not predisposed to tumor formation. Furthermore, the formation of synaptic connections as well as neuronal and glial electrophysiological properties demonstrated that differentiated iNSCs migrated, functionally integrated, and interacted with the existing neuronal circuitry. We conclude that iNSC long-term transplantation is a safe procedure; moreover, it might represent an interesting tool for future personalized regenerative applications. PMID:25241741

  11. Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dybala, Kristen E.; Eadie, John M.; Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Herzog, Mark P.

    2013-01-01

    Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.

  12. Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population.

    PubMed

    Dybala, Kristen E; Eadie, John M; Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Herzog, Mark P

    2013-09-01

    Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.

  13. Sexual Dysfunction among Older Adults: Prevalence and Risk Factors from a Nationally Representative U.S. Probability Sample of Men and Women 57–85 Years of Age

    PubMed Central

    Laumann, Edward O.; Das, Aniruddha; Waite, Linda J.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Despite increasing demand for clinical interventions into sexual problems in an aging population, epidemiological data on the subject are scarce. Aims To examine the prevalence of sexual problems across different sociodemographic groups, and risk factors for these problems in multiple domains of life. Methods Statistical analysis of data from the 2005–2006 National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP), a nationally representative U.S. probability sample of 1,550 women and 1,455 men aged 57–85 at the time of interview. Main Outcome Measures Likelihood of experiencing sexual dysfunction in the preceding 12 months. Results Sexual problems among the elderly are not an inevitable consequence of aging, but instead are responses to the presence of stressors in multiple life domains. This impact may partly be gender differentiated, with older women's sexual health more sensitive to their physical health than is true for men. The mechanism linking life stress with sexual problems is likely to be poor mental health and relationship dissatisfaction. The NSHAP results demonstrate the consistent impact of poor mental health on women's reports of sexual problems and the less consistent association with men's problems. Conclusions The results point to a need for physicians who are treating older adults experiencing sexual problems to take into account not simply their physical health, but also their psychosocial health and satisfaction with their intimate relationship. PMID:18702640

  14. Improving the Quality of Adult Mortality Data Collected in Demographic Surveys: Validation Study of a New Siblings' Survival Questionnaire in Niakhar, Senegal

    PubMed Central

    Helleringer, Stéphane; Pison, Gilles; Masquelier, Bruno; Kanté, Almamy Malick; Douillot, Laetitia; Duthé, Géraldine; Sokhna, Cheikh; Delaunay, Valérie

    2014-01-01

    Background In countries with limited vital registration, adult mortality is frequently estimated using siblings' survival histories (SSHs) collected during Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). These data are affected by reporting errors. We developed a new SSH questionnaire, the siblings' survival calendar (SSC). It incorporates supplementary interviewing techniques to limit omissions of siblings and uses an event history calendar to improve reports of dates and ages. We hypothesized that the SSC would improve the quality of adult mortality data. Methods and Findings We conducted a retrospective validation study among the population of the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Senegal. We randomly assigned men and women aged 15–59 y to an interview with either the DHS questionnaire or the SSC. We compared SSHs collected in each group to prospective data on adult mortality collected in Niakhar. The SSC reduced respondents' tendency to round reports of dates and ages to the nearest multiple of five or ten (“heaping”). The SSC also had higher sensitivity in recording adult female deaths: among respondents whose sister(s) had died at an adult age in the past 15 y, 89.6% reported an adult female death during SSC interviews versus 75.6% in DHS interviews (p = 0.027). The specificity of the SSC was similar to that of the DHS questionnaire, i.e., it did not increase the number of false reports of deaths. However, the SSC did not improve the reporting of adult deaths among the brothers of respondents. Study limitations include sample selectivity, limited external validity, and multiple testing. Conclusions The SSC has the potential to collect more accurate SSHs than the questionnaire used in DHS. Further research is needed to assess the effects of the SSC on estimates of adult mortality rates. Additional validation studies should be conducted in different social and epidemiological settings. Trial Registration Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN06849961

  15. Age-specific survival of reintroduced swift fox in Badlands National Park and surrounding lands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sasmal, Indrani; Klaver, Robert W.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Schroeder, Greg M.

    2016-01-01

    In 2003, a reintroduction program was initiated at Badlands National Park (BNP), South Dakota, USA, with swift foxes (Vulpes velox) translocated from Colorado and Wyoming, USA, as part of a restoration effort to recover declining swift fox populations throughout its historical range. Estimates of age-specific survival are necessary to evaluate the potential for population growth of reintroduced populations. We used 7 years (2003–2009) of capture–recapture data of 243 pups, 29 yearlings, and 69 adult swift foxes at BNP and the surrounding area to construct Cormack–Jolly–Seber model estimates of apparent survival within a capture–mark–recapture framework using Program MARK. The best model for estimating recapture probabilities included no differences among age classes, greater recapture probabilities during early years of the monitoring effort than later years, and variation among spring, winter, and summer. Our top ranked survival model indicated pup survival differed from that of yearlings and adults and varied by month and year. The apparent annual survival probability of pups (0.47, SE = 0.10) in our study area was greater than the apparent annual survival probability of yearlings and adults (0.27, SE = 0.08). Our results indicate low survival probabilities for a reintroduced population of swift foxes in the BNP and surrounding areas. Management of reintroduced populations and future reintroductions of swift foxes should consider the effects of relative low annual survival on population demography.

  16. GABA-cAMP response element-binding protein signaling regulates maturation and survival of newly generated neurons in the adult hippocampus.

    PubMed

    Jagasia, Ravi; Steib, Kathrin; Englberger, Elisabeth; Herold, Sabine; Faus-Kessler, Theresa; Saxe, Michael; Gage, Fred H; Song, Hongjun; Lie, D Chichung

    2009-06-24

    Survival and integration of new neurons in the hippocampal circuit are rate-limiting steps in adult hippocampal neurogenesis. Neuronal network activity is a major regulator of these processes, yet little is known about the respective downstream signaling pathways. Here, we investigate the role of cAMP response element-binding protein (CREB) signaling in adult hippocampal neurogenesis. CREB is activated in new granule neurons during a distinct developmental period. Loss of CREB function in a cell-autonomous manner impairs dendritic development, decreases the expression of the neurogenic transcription factor NeuroD and of the neuronal microtubule-associated protein, doublecortin (DCX), and compromises the survival of newborn neurons. In addition, GABA-mediated excitation regulates CREB activation at early developmental stages. Importantly, developmental defects after loss of GABA-mediated excitation can be compensated by enhanced CREB signaling. These results indicate that CREB signaling is a central pathway in adult hippocampal neurogenesis, regulating the development and survival of new hippocampal neurons downstream of GABA-mediated excitation.

  17. Effects of crude oil exposure on bioaccumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and survival of adult and larval stages of gelatinous zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Almeda, Rodrigo; Wambaugh, Zoe; Chai, Chao; Wang, Zucheng; Liu, Zhanfei; Buskey, Edward J

    2013-01-01

    Gelatinous zooplankton play an important role in marine food webs both as major consumers of metazooplankton and as prey of apex predators (e.g., tuna, sunfish, sea turtles). However, little is known about the effects of crude oil spills on these important components of planktonic communities. We determined the effects of Louisiana light sweet crude oil exposure on survival and bioaccumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in adult stages of the scyphozoans Pelagia noctiluca and Aurelia aurita and the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi, and on survival of ephyra larvae of A. aurita and cydippid larvae of M. leidyi, in the laboratory. Adult P. noctiluca showed 100% mortality at oil concentration ≥20 µL L(-1) after 16 h. In contrast, low or non-lethal effects were observed on adult stages of A. aurita and M. leidyi exposed at oil concentration ≤25 µL L(-1) after 6 days. Survival of ephyra and cydippid larva decreased with increasing crude oil concentration and exposition time. The median lethal concentration (LC50) for ephyra larvae ranged from 14.41 to 0.15 µL L(-1) after 1 and 3 days, respectively. LC50 for cydippid larvae ranged from 14.52 to 8.94 µL L(-1) after 3 and 6 days, respectively. We observed selective bioaccumulation of chrysene, phenanthrene and pyrene in A. aurita and chrysene, pyrene, benzo[a]pyrene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, and benzo[a]anthracene in M. leidyi. Overall, our results indicate that (1) A. aurita and M. leidyi adults had a high tolerance to crude oil exposure compared to other zooplankton, whereas P. noctiluca was highly sensitive to crude oil, (2) larval stages of gelatinous zooplankton were more sensitive to crude oil than adult stages, and (3) some of the most toxic PAHs of crude oil can be bioaccumulated in gelatinous zooplankton and potentially be transferred up the food web and contaminate apex predators.

  18. HIV-1 Disease Progression and Survival in an Adult Population in Zimbabwe: Is There an Effect of the Mannose Binding Lectin Deficiency?

    PubMed

    Zinyama-Gutsire, Rutendo B L; Chasela, Charles; Kallestrup, Per; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Christiansen, Michael; Ngara, Bernard; Gomo, Exnevia; Ullum, Henrik; Erikstrup, Christian; Madsen, Hans O; Stray-Pedersen, Babill; Garred, Peter; Mduluza, Takafira

    2015-09-01

    HIV infection remains a major global health burden since its discovery in 1983. Sub-Saharan Africa is the region hardest hit by the HIV/AIDS pandemic where 63% of the 33 million infected people live. While there is marked person-to-person variability in susceptibility, progression, and survival with HIV infection, there is a paucity of predictive diagnostics associated with these clinical endpoints. In this regard, the deficiency in plasma Mannose Binding Lectin (MBL) is a common opsonic defect reported to increase susceptibility infections, including HIV. To the best of our knowledge, we report here the first study on the putative role of MBL deficiency on HIV progression and survival in an African adult population. We hypothesized that MBL deficiency has a role to play in HIV infection by increasing HIV disease progression and decreasing survival. We assessed the role of MBL deficiency on HIV disease progression and survival in a Zimbabwean adult population enrolled in the Mupfure Schistosomiasis and HIV (MUSH) cohort. We analyzed blood samples for MBL levels, MBL2 genotypes, HIV-1 status, viral load, and CD4(+) T cell counts. Participants were followed for 3 years wherein the endpoints were measured at baseline, 6 weeks, and 3, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months. Disease progression was measured as the rate of decline in CD4(+) T cell counts and the rate of increase in HIV viral load. We assessed 197 HIV positive adults where 83% (164) were women with a median age of 31 years. Prevalence of plasma MBL deficiency (less than 100 μg/L) and MBL2 deficient genetic variants (A/O and O/O genotypes) was 21% (42 out of 197) and 39% (74 out of 190), respectively. We did not observe a significant role to explain individual variation in mortality, change of CD4(+) T cell count, and viral load by MBL plasma deficiency or MBL2 genetic variants from baseline to 3 years follow up period in this adult population. We suggest the need for global OMICS research and that the present

  19. HIV-1 Disease Progression and Survival in an Adult Population in Zimbabwe: Is There an Effect of the Mannose Binding Lectin Deficiency?

    PubMed Central

    Chasela, Charles; Kallestrup, Per; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Christiansen, Michael; Ngara, Bernard; Gomo, Exnevia; Ullum, Henrik; Erikstrup, Christian; Madsen, Hans O.; Stray-Pedersen, Babill; Garred, Peter; Mduluza, Takafira

    2015-01-01

    Abstract HIV infection remains a major global health burden since its discovery in 1983. Sub-Saharan Africa is the region hardest hit by the HIV/AIDS pandemic where 63% of the 33 million infected people live. While there is marked person-to-person variability in susceptibility, progression, and survival with HIV infection, there is a paucity of predictive diagnostics associated with these clinical endpoints. In this regard, the deficiency in plasma Mannose Binding Lectin (MBL) is a common opsonic defect reported to increase susceptibility infections, including HIV. To the best of our knowledge, we report here the first study on the putative role of MBL deficiency on HIV progression and survival in an African adult population. We hypothesized that MBL deficiency has a role to play in HIV infection by increasing HIV disease progression and decreasing survival. We assessed the role of MBL deficiency on HIV disease progression and survival in a Zimbabwean adult population enrolled in the Mupfure Schistosomiasis and HIV (MUSH) cohort. We analyzed blood samples for MBL levels, MBL2 genotypes, HIV-1 status, viral load, and CD4+ T cell counts. Participants were followed for 3 years wherein the endpoints were measured at baseline, 6 weeks, and 3, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months. Disease progression was measured as the rate of decline in CD4+ T cell counts and the rate of increase in HIV viral load. We assessed 197 HIV positive adults where 83% (164) were women with a median age of 31 years. Prevalence of plasma MBL deficiency (less than 100 μg/L) and MBL2 deficient genetic variants (A/O and O/O genotypes) was 21% (42 out of 197) and 39% (74 out of 190), respectively. We did not observe a significant role to explain individual variation in mortality, change of CD4+ T cell count, and viral load by MBL plasma deficiency or MBL2 genetic variants from baseline to 3 years follow up period in this adult population. We suggest the need for global OMICS research and that the present

  20. Event-free survival and cost-effectiveness in adult acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in first remission treated with allogeneic transplantation.

    PubMed

    Orsi, C; Bartolozzi, B; Messori, A; Bosi, A

    2007-10-01

    Allogeneic transplantation in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in first remission (ALL-CR1) has been studied in several clinical trials. However, no pooled survival analysis has yet been done. We conducted a survival meta-analysis to compare allogeneic transplantation vs chemotherapy or autologous transplantation using an intention-to-treat approach. Our study included the controlled clinical trials, wherein allocation to allogeneic transplant was based on donor availability. The event-free individual survival data were reconstructed on the basis of published information and Kaplan-Meier graphs. We then generated the meta-analytic event-free survival curves for the two treatments. The mean survival gain per patient was estimated and a simplified cost-effectiveness assessment was carried out. In the allogeneic transplantation group, 293 patients were examined and 479 as controls (four trials). The event-free survival difference was statistically significant (P=0.011). The relative risk for event occurrence was 0.79 for the experimental group vs the controls (95% CI: 0.66-0.96; P=0.017). The mean survival gain was 1 year per patient. The cost per life-year gained was less than the conventional threshold of 50,000 euros. Allogeneic transplantation in ALL-CR1 improves event-free survival as compared to chemotherapy or autologous transplantation. Its cost-effectiveness profile is acceptable. PMID:17660839

  1. Dispersal and survival of a polygynandrous passerine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Craig, Heather R.; Kendall, Steve J.; Wild, Teri C.; Powell, Abby N.

    2015-01-01

    Although sex biases in survival and dispersal are thought to be linked to avian mating systems, little is known about these demographic patterns in less common mating strategies such as polygynandry. We investigated breeding-site fidelity, natal philopatry, and apparent survival of the polygynandrous Smith's Longspur (Calcarius pictus) over a 7-yr period at 2 areas in Alaska's Brooks Range. We used capture–recapture histories of 243 color-banded adults and 431 juveniles to estimate annual survival and determined dispersal patterns from 34 adults that were found breeding within the study areas over multiple years. Most adults (88%) returned to nest in the same breeding neighborhood as in previous years; mean dispersal distance was 300.9 ± 74.2 m and did not differ between sexes. Juveniles exhibited low natal philopatry; only 4% of banded hatch-year birds were resighted as adults during subsequent years. Those that did return dispersed, on average, 1,674.4 ± 465.8 m from their natal nests (n = 6). Model-averaged survival estimates indicated that annual survival of adult females (50–58%) was only slightly lower than that of males (60–63%); juvenile survival was 41% but was paired with a low (13%) encounter probability. We attribute the lack of sex bias in adult dispersal to this species' polygynandrous mating strategy. Within this system, there are multiple mates within a breeding neighborhood. We argue that natural selection may favor females that remain on the same, familiar breeding site, because they do not have to disperse to a new area to find a suitable mate. Dispersal among breeding populations most likely occurs by juveniles returning as adults. Our findings support hypotheses that suggest a relationship between dispersal and mating strategy and provide some of the first insight into the demographic patterns of a polygynandrous passerine.

  2. Size-sex variation in survival rates and abundance of pig frogs, Rana grylio, in northern Florida wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, K.V.; Nichols, J.D.; Percival, H.F.; Hines, J.E.

    1998-01-01

    During 1991-1993, we conducted capture-recapture studies on pig frogs, Rana grylio, in seven study locations in northcentral Florida. Resulting data were used to test hypotheses about variation in survival probability over different size-sex classes of pig frogs. We developed multistate capture-recapture models for the resulting data and used them to estimate survival rates and frog abundance. Tests provided strong evidence of survival differences among size-sex classes, with adult females showing the highest survival probabilities. Adult males and juvenile frogs had lower survival rates that were similar to each other. Adult females were more abundant than adult males in most locations at most sampling occasions. We recommended probabilistic capture-recapture models in general, and multistate models in particular, for robust estimation of demographic parameters in amphibian populations.

  3. Diagnostic, treatment, and demographic factors influencing survival in a population-based study of adult glioma patients in the San Francisco Bay Area.

    PubMed

    Wrensch, Margaret; Rice, Terri; Miike, Rei; McMillan, Alex; Lamborn, Kathleen R; Aldape, Kenneth; Prados, Michael D

    2006-01-01

    We compare survival estimates for population-based glioma cases by using two diagnostic coding schemes, (1) the International Classification of Diseases, Oncology, second edition (ICD-O-2) as reported by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and (2) central neuropathology review diagnosis based on the World Health Organization II classification. In addition, among review categories, we estimate survival in relation to several patient demographic and treatment factors. Eligible cases included adults residing in the San Francisco Bay SEER Area with newly diagnosed, histologically confirmed glioma during the years 1991-1994 and 1997-1999. The study group included participating subjects for whom subsequent central neuropathology review confirmed glioma. We determined treatments, vital status, and other factors by using registry, interview, medical record, and active follow-up data. Survival differences between anaplastic astrocytoma (AA) and astrocytoma were apparent from review diagnoses (median months of survival for AA, 13.0 [95% CI, 9.9-19.5], and astrocytoma, 101.3 [95% CI lower limit, 42.1; upper limit not yet reached]), but not with ICD-O-2 diagnoses reported by SEER (median months of survival for AA, 16.6 [95% CI, 12.0-20.7], and astrocytoma, not otherwise specified, 17.2 [95% CI, 10.6-71.6]). This finding emphasizes the need for improvements in coding for nonglioblastoma astrocytomas to provide better population survival estimates. When review diagnosis was used, younger age and resection (vs. biopsy) were statistically significant for all histology groups analyzed by multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. Additional statistically significant variables were as follows: among 517 glioblastoma patients, radiation treatment and being married; among 105 AA patients, inclusion of chemotherapy in the initial treatment; and among 106 patients with nonanaplastic oligodendroglial tumors, college education. Further consideration of impact

  4. Diagnostic, treatment, and demographic factors influencing survival in a population-based study of adult glioma patients in the San Francisco Bay Area1

    PubMed Central

    Wrensch, Margaret; Rice, Terri; Miike, Rei; McMillan, Alex; Lamborn, Kathleen R.; Aldape, Kenneth; Prados, Michael D.

    2006-01-01

    We compare survival estimates for population-based glioma cases by using two diagnostic coding schemes, (1) the International Classification of Diseases, Oncology, second edition (ICD-O-2) as reported by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and (2) central neuropathology review diagnosis based on the World Health Organization II classification. In addition, among review categories, we estimate survival in relation to several patient demographic and treatment factors. Eligible cases included adults residing in the San Francisco Bay SEER Area with newly diagnosed, histologically confirmed glioma during the years 1991–1994 and 1997–1999. The study group included participating subjects for whom subsequent central neuropathology review confirmed glioma. We determined treatments, vital status, and other factors by using registry, interview, medical record, and active follow-up data. Survival differences between anaplastic astrocytoma (AA) and astrocytoma were apparent from review diagnoses (median months of survival for AA, 13.0 [95% CI, 9.9–19.5], and astrocytoma, 101.3 [95% CI lower limit, 42.1; upper limit not yet reached]), but not with ICD-O-2 diagnoses reported by SEER (median months of survival for AA, 16.6 [95% CI, 12.0–20.7], and astrocytoma, not otherwise specified, 17.2 [95% CI, 10.6–71.6]). This finding emphasizes the need for improvements in coding for nonglioblastoma astrocytomas to provide better population survival estimates. When review diagnosis was used, younger age and resection (vs. biopsy) were statistically significant for all histology groups analyzed by multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. Additional statistically significant variables were as follows: among 517 glioblastoma patients, radiation treatment and being married; among 105 AA patients, inclusion of chemotherapy in the initial treatment; and among 106 patients with nonanaplastic oligodendroglial tumors, college education. Further consideration

  5. Relationship of race/ethnicity and survival after single umbilical cord blood transplantation for adults and children with leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes.

    PubMed

    Ballen, Karen K; Klein, John P; Pedersen, Tanya L; Bhatla, Deepika; Duerst, Reggie; Kurtzberg, Joanne; Lazarus, Hillard M; LeMaistre, Charles F; McCarthy, Phillip; Mehta, Paulette; Palmer, Jeanne; Setterholm, Michelle; Wingard, John R; Joffe, Steven; Parsons, Susan K; Switzer, Galen E; Lee, Stephanie J; Rizzo, J Douglas; Majhail, Navneet S

    2012-06-01

    The relationship of race/ethnicity with outcomes of umbilical cord blood transplantation (UCBT) is not well known. We analyzed the association between race/ethnicity and outcomes of unrelated single UCBT for leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes. Our retrospective cohort study consisted of 885 adults and children (612 whites, 145 blacks, and 128 Hispanics) who received unrelated single UCBT for leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes between 1995 and 2006 and were reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. A 5-6/6 HLA-matched unit with a total nucleated cell count infused of ≥2.5 × 10(7)/kg was given to 40% white and 42% Hispanic, but only 21% black patients. Overall survival at 2 years was 44% for whites, 34% for blacks, and 46% for Hispanics (P = .008). In multivariate analysis adjusting for patient, disease, and treatment factors (including HLA match and cell dose), blacks had inferior overall survival (relative risk of death, 1.31; P = .02), whereas overall survival of Hispanics was similar (relative risk, 1.03; P = .81) to that of whites. For all patients, younger age, early-stage disease, use of units with higher cell dose, and performance status ≥80 were independent predictors of improved survival. Black patients and white patients infused with well-matched cords had comparable survival; similarly, black and white patients receiving units with adequate cell dose had similar survival. These results suggest that blacks have inferior survival to whites after single UCBT, but outcomes are improved when units with a higher cell dose are used.

  6. Bimolecular recombination reactions: K-adiabatic and K-active forms of RRKM theory, nonstatistical aspects, low-pressure rates, and time-dependent survival probabilities with application to ozone. 2.

    PubMed

    Ghaderi, Nima; Marcus, R A

    2014-11-01

    We consider for bimolecular recombination reactions the K-adiabatic versus the K-active forms of RRKM theory, where K is the component of the total angular momentum along the axis of least moment of inertia of the recombination product. When that product is approximately a prolate symmetric top, with two moments of inertia of the product substantially larger than the third, K becomes a dynamically slowly varying quantity and the K-adiabatic form of RRKM theory is the appropriate version to use. Using classical trajectory results for the rate constant for ozone formation in the low-pressure region as an example, excellent agreement for the recombination rate constant k(rec) with the K-adiabatic RRKM theory is observed. Use of a two transition state (inner, outer TS) formalism also obviates any need for assessing recrossings in the exit channel. In contrast, the K-active form of RRKM theory for this system disagrees with the trajectory results by a factor of about 2.5. In this study we also consider the distribution of the (E, J) resolved time-dependent survival probabilities P(E, J, t) of the intermediate O3* formed from O + O2. It is calculated using classical trajectories. The initial conditions for classical trajectories were selected using action-angle variables and a total J representation for (E, J) resolved systems, as described in Part I.1 The difference between K-active and K-adiabatic treatments is reflected also in a difference of the K-active RRKM survival probability P(E, J, t) from its trajectory-based value and from its often non-single-exponential decay. It is shown analytically that krec (K-active) ≥ k(rec) (K-adiabatic), independent of the details of the TS (e.g., variational or fixed RRKM theory, 1-TS or 2-TS). Nonstatistical effects for O3* formation include a small initial recrossing of the transition state, a slow (several picoseconds) equipartitioning of energy among the two O-O bonds of the newly formed O3*, and a small nondissociation (a

  7. Frequency of p190 and p210 BCR-ABL rearrangements and survival in Brazilian adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

    PubMed Central

    de França Azevedo, Ilana; da Silva Júnior, Rui Milton Patrício; de Vasconcelos, Audrey Violeta Martins; das Neves, Washington Batista; de Barros Correia Melo, Fárida Coeli; Melo, Raul Antônio Morais

    2014-01-01

    Objective This study investigated the occurrence of the p190 and p210 breakpoint cluster region-Abelson (BCR-ABL) rearrangements in adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and possible associations with clinical and laboratory characteristics and survival. Methods Forty-one over 18-year-old patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia of both genders followed-up between January 2008 and May 2012 were included in this study. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained from the medical charts of the patients. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using specific primers was employed to identify molecular rearrangements. Results At diagnosis, the median age was 33 years, and there was a predominance of males (61%). The most common immunophenotype was B lineage (76%). BCR-ABL rearrangements was detected in 14 (34%) patients with the following distribution: p190 (28%), p210 (50%) and double positive (22%). Overall survival of patients with a mean/median of 331/246 days of follow up was 39%, respectively, negative BCR-ABL (44%) and positive BCR-ABL (28%). Conclusion These results confirm the high frequency of BCR-ABL rearrangements and the low survival rate of adult Brazilian patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. PMID:25305168

  8. The effect of replacement of methionine by homocystine on survival of malignant and normal adult mammalian cells in culture.

    PubMed

    Halpern, B C; Clark, B R; Hardy, D N; Halpern, R M; Smith, R A

    1974-04-01

    In tissue cultures of normal adult and malignant mammalian cells, homocystine has been substituted for methionine in a medium rich in folic acid and cyanocobalamin. Normal adult cells thrive. Three highly malignant cell types from three different species, including man, die.

  9. Academic Survival Skills. The Career Life Assessment Skills Series, Booklet Five. A Program to Meet Adult Developmental Needs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curtin, Bernadette M.; Hecklinger, Fred J.

    As part of a series on career and life planning for adults, this booklet examines strategies and academic skills that can help reentry adult students. Part I discusses factors to be considered in planning a return to school: determining the motivation for returning, choosing an appropriate educational program, investigating nontraditional methods…

  10. Long-term survival of individuals with myelomeningocele.

    PubMed

    Davis, Beth Ellen; Daley, Colleen M; Shurtleff, David B; Duguay, Sharon; Seidel, Kristy; Loeser, John D; Ellenbogan, Richard G

    2005-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to extend survival analysis into adulthood for patients with myelomeningocele (MM) and to compare survival curves for patients born with varying defect severity before and after 1975. We have reviewed existing data for 904 patients with MM seen in a large multidisciplinary children's clinic over 43 years. Before 1975, a major contributor to decreased survival is death during infancy. The presence of cerebral spinal fluid shunting is a major contributor to increased survival. After 1975, survival to adolescence is similar regardless of shunt status (p = 0.17). For all patients alive at age 16, a significant decrease in survival probability after age 34 years was found for individuals with shunted hydrocephalus compared to those without a shunt (p = 0.03). Although childhood survival for individuals born after 1975 is not related to shunt status, adults with MM and shunted hydrocephalus may be at risk for decreased longevity.

  11. Trends in Esophageal Cancer Survival in United States Adults from 1973 to 2009: A SEER Database Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Njei, Basile; McCarty, Thomas R.; Birk, John W.

    2016-01-01

    Background The rise in incidence of esophageal cancer (EC) in the United States (U.S.) over the last four decades has been well documented; however, data on trends in long-term survival and impact on modern therapies associated with survival is lacking. Methods The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was queried to identify patients with confirmed EC. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine independent mortality factors. Results Of 93,167 patients diagnosed with EC between 1973 and 2009, 49% had a histologic diagnosis of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). There was an increase (almost double) in the proportion of patients with adenocarcinoma from the 1970's to 2000's (n = 2,350; 35% to n = 32,212; 61%, p<0.001). Surgery was performed for localized disease in a majority of EC regardless of type (n = 46,683; 89%). Use of surgical treatment increased significantly over the study period (49% to 64%, p<0.001). There was also an increase in overall median survival (6 months versus 10 months, p<0.001) and 5-year survival rate (9% to 22%, p<0.001). Median survival increased consistently for EAC and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) until the 1990's. After this period, median survival of EAC continued to increase more rapidly while SCC remained relatively stable. Conclusion A significant survival improvement in esophageal cancer was seen from 1973 to 2009, largely due to earlier detection at a curative stage and greater utilization of treatment modalities (especially surgery). Despite the rising prevalence, patients with EAC have better long-term survival outcomes than those SCC. PMID:26749521

  12. Survivability Versus Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2014-01-01

    Develop Survivability vs Time Model as a decision-evaluation tool to assess various emergency egress methods used at Launch Complex 39B (LC 39B) and in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) on NASAs Kennedy Space Center. For each hazard scenario, develop probability distributions to address statistical uncertainty resulting in survivability plots over time and composite survivability plots encompassing multiple hazard scenarios.

  13. Fatherhood reduces the survival of adult-generated cells and affects various types of behavior in the prairie vole (Microtus ochrogaster ).

    PubMed

    Lieberwirth, Claudia; Wang, Yue; Jia, Xixi; Liu, Yan; Wang, Zuoxin

    2013-11-01

    Motherhood has profound effects on physiology, neuronal plasticity, and behavior. We conducted a series of experiments to test the hypothesis that fatherhood, similarly to motherhood, affects brain plasticity (such as cell proliferation and survival) and various behaviors in the highly social prairie vole (Microtus ochrogaster). In Experiment 1, adult males were housed with their same-sex cage mate (control), single-housed (isolation), or housed with a receptive female to mate and produce offspring (father) for 6 weeks. Fatherhood significantly reduced cell survival (assessed by bromodeoxyuridine labeling), but not cell proliferation (assessed by Ki67-labeling), in the amygdala, dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, and ventromedial hypothalamus, suggesting that fatherhood affects brain plasticity. In Experiment 2, neither acute (20 min) nor chronic (20 min daily for 10 consecutive days) pup exposure altered cell proliferation or survival in the brain, but chronic pup exposure increased circulating corticosterone levels. These data suggest that reduced cell survival in the brain of prairie vole fathers was unlikely to be due to the level of pup exposure and display of paternal behavior, and may not be mediated by circulating corticosterone. The effects of fatherhood on various behaviors (including anxiety-like, depression-like, and social behaviors) were examined in Experiment 3. The data indicated that fatherhood increased anxiety- and depression-like behaviors as well as altered aggression and social recognition memory in male prairie voles. These results warrant further investigation of a possible link between brain plasticity and behavioral changes observed due to fatherhood.

  14. Patterns of practice and survival in a retrospective analysis of 1722 adult astrocytoma patients treated between 1985 and 2001 in 12 Italian radiation oncology centers

    SciTech Connect

    Magrini, Stefano Maria . E-mail: magrini@med.unibs.it; Ricardi, Umberto; Santoni, Riccardo; Krengli, Marco; Lupattelli, Marco; Cafaro, Ines; Scoccianti, Silvia; Menichelli, Claudia; Bertoni, Filippo; Enrici, Riccardo Maurizi; Tombolini, Vincenzo; Buglione, Michela; Pirtoli, Luigi

    2006-07-01

    Purpose: To analyze the patterns of practice and survival in a series of 1722 adult astrocytoma patients treated in 12 Italian radiotherapy centers. Methods and Materials: A total of 1722 patients were treated with postoperative radiotherapy (90% World Health Organization [WHO] Grade 3-4, 62% male, 44% aged >60 years, 25% with severe neurologic deficits, 44% after gross total resection, 52% with high-dose radiotherapy, and 16% with chemotherapy). Variations in the clinical-therapeutic features in three subsequent periods (1985 through 2001) were evaluated, along with overall survival for the different subgroups. Results: The proportion of women, of older patients, of those with worse neurologic performance status (NPS), with WHO Grade 4, and with smaller tumors increased with time, as did the proportion of those treated with radical surgery, hypofractionated radiotherapy, and more sophisticated radiotherapy techniques, after staging procedures progressively became more accurate. The main prognostic factors for overall survival were age, sex, neurologic performance status, WHO grade, extent of surgery, and radiation dose. Conclusions: Recently, broader selection criteria for radiotherapy were adopted, together with simpler techniques, smaller total doses, and larger fraction sizes for the worse prognostic categories. Younger, fit patients are treated more aggressively, more often in association with chemotherapy. Survival did not change over time. The accurate evaluation of neurologic status is therefore of utmost importance before the best treatment option for the individual patient is chosen.

  15. Androgens increase survival of adult-born neurons in the dentate gyrus by an androgen receptor-dependent mechanism in male rats.

    PubMed

    Hamson, D K; Wainwright, S R; Taylor, J R; Jones, B A; Watson, N V; Galea, L A M

    2013-09-01

    Gonadal steroids are potent regulators of adult neurogenesis. We previously reported that androgens, such as testosterone (T) and dihydrotestosterone (DHT), but not estradiol, increased the survival of new neurons in the dentate gyrus of the male rat. These results suggest androgens regulate hippocampal neurogenesis via the androgen receptor (AR). To test this supposition, we examined the role of ARs in hippocampal neurogenesis using 2 different approaches. In experiment 1, we examined neurogenesis in male rats insensitive to androgens due to a naturally occurring mutation in the gene encoding the AR (termed testicular feminization mutation) compared with wild-type males. In experiment 2, we injected the AR antagonist, flutamide, into castrated male rats and compared neurogenesis levels in the dentate gyrus of DHT and oil-treated controls. In experiment 1, chronic T increased hippocampal neurogenesis in wild-type males but not in androgen-insensitive testicular feminization mutation males. In experiment 2, DHT increased hippocampal neurogenesis via cell survival, an effect that was blocked by concurrent treatment with flutamide. DHT, however, did not affect cell proliferation. Interestingly, cells expressing doublecortin, a marker of immature neurons, did not colabel with ARs in the dentate gyrus, but ARs were robustly expressed in other regions of the hippocampus. Together these studies provide complementary evidence that androgens regulate adult neurogenesis in the hippocampus via the AR but at a site other than the dentate gyrus. Understanding where in the brain androgens act to increase the survival of new neurons in the adult brain may have implications for neurodegenerative disorders.

  16. Temperature seasonality during fry out-migration influences the survival of hatchery-reared chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta.

    PubMed

    Morita, K; Nakashima, A

    2015-10-01

    Among years, fry-to-adult survival of hatchery-reared chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta was positively correlated with the length (in days) of the fry out-migration period with temperatures suitable for migration. Furthermore, survival decreased with increasing difference in mean temperature between May and June. Thus, prolonged out-migration periods increased the probability of survival from fry to adult, lending support to the hypothesis that long migration periods decrease the risk of mortality (bet-hedging), and increase the probability of migration when environmental conditions in fresh water and the ocean are suitable (match-mismatch).

  17. Effects of crude oil exposure on bioaccumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and survival of adult and larval stages of gelatinous zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Almeda, Rodrigo; Wambaugh, Zoe; Chai, Chao; Wang, Zucheng; Liu, Zhanfei; Buskey, Edward J

    2013-01-01

    Gelatinous zooplankton play an important role in marine food webs both as major consumers of metazooplankton and as prey of apex predators (e.g., tuna, sunfish, sea turtles). However, little is known about the effects of crude oil spills on these important components of planktonic communities. We determined the effects of Louisiana light sweet crude oil exposure on survival and bioaccumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in adult stages of the scyphozoans Pelagia noctiluca and Aurelia aurita and the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi, and on survival of ephyra larvae of A. aurita and cydippid larvae of M. leidyi, in the laboratory. Adult P. noctiluca showed 100% mortality at oil concentration ≥20 µL L(-1) after 16 h. In contrast, low or non-lethal effects were observed on adult stages of A. aurita and M. leidyi exposed at oil concentration ≤25 µL L(-1) after 6 days. Survival of ephyra and cydippid larva decreased with increasing crude oil concentration and exposition time. The median lethal concentration (LC50) for ephyra larvae ranged from 14.41 to 0.15 µL L(-1) after 1 and 3 days, respectively. LC50 for cydippid larvae ranged from 14.52 to 8.94 µL L(-1) after 3 and 6 days, respectively. We observed selective bioaccumulation of chrysene, phenanthrene and pyrene in A. aurita and chrysene, pyrene, benzo[a]pyrene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, and benzo[a]anthracene in M. leidyi. Overall, our results indicate that (1) A. aurita and M. leidyi adults had a high tolerance to crude oil exposure compared to other zooplankton, whereas P. noctiluca was highly sensitive to crude oil, (2) larval stages of gelatinous zooplankton were more sensitive to crude oil than adult stages, and (3) some of the most toxic PAHs of crude oil can be bioaccumulated in gelatinous zooplankton and potentially be transferred up the food web and contaminate apex predators. PMID:24116004

  18. Effects of Crude Oil Exposure on Bioaccumulation of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Survival of Adult and Larval Stages of Gelatinous Zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Almeda, Rodrigo; Wambaugh, Zoe; Chai, Chao; Wang, Zucheng; Liu, Zhanfei; Buskey, Edward J.

    2013-01-01

    Gelatinous zooplankton play an important role in marine food webs both as major consumers of metazooplankton and as prey of apex predators (e.g., tuna, sunfish, sea turtles). However, little is known about the effects of crude oil spills on these important components of planktonic communities. We determined the effects of Louisiana light sweet crude oil exposure on survival and bioaccumulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in adult stages of the scyphozoans Pelagia noctiluca and Aurelia aurita and the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi, and on survival of ephyra larvae of A. aurita and cydippid larvae of M. leidyi, in the laboratory. Adult P. noctiluca showed 100% mortality at oil concentration ≥20 µL L−1 after 16 h. In contrast, low or non-lethal effects were observed on adult stages of A. aurita and M. leidyi exposed at oil concentration ≤25 µL L−1 after 6 days. Survival of ephyra and cydippid larva decreased with increasing crude oil concentration and exposition time. The median lethal concentration (LC50) for ephyra larvae ranged from 14.41 to 0.15 µL L−1 after 1 and 3 days, respectively. LC50 for cydippid larvae ranged from 14.52 to 8.94 µL L−1 after 3 and 6 days, respectively. We observed selective bioaccumulation of chrysene, phenanthrene and pyrene in A. aurita and chrysene, pyrene, benzo[a]pyrene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, and benzo[a]anthracene in M. leidyi. Overall, our results indicate that (1) A. aurita and M. leidyi adults had a high tolerance to crude oil exposure compared to other zooplankton, whereas P. noctiluca was highly sensitive to crude oil, (2) larval stages of gelatinous zooplankton were more sensitive to crude oil than adult stages, and (3) some of the most toxic PAHs of crude oil can be bioaccumulated in gelatinous zooplankton and potentially be transferred up the food web and contaminate apex predators. PMID:24116004

  19. Are adult nonbreeders prudent parents? The kittiwake model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cam, E.; Hines, J.E.; Monnat, J.-Y.; Nichols, J.D.; Danchin, E.

    1998-01-01

    Understanding evolutionary consequences of intermittent breeding (non-breeding in individuals that previously bred) requires investigation of the relationships between adult breeding state and two demographic parameters: survival probability and subsequent breeding probability. One major difficulty raised by comparing the demographic features of breeders and nonbreeders as estimated from capture-recapture data is that breeding state is often suspected to influence recapture or resighting probability. We used multistate capture-recapture models to test the hypothesis of equal recapture probabilities for breeding and nonbreeding Kittiwakes and found no evidence of an effect of breeding state on this parameter. The same method was used to test whether reproductive state affects survival probability. Nonbreeding individuals have lower survival rates than breeders. Moreover, nonbreeders have a higher probability of being nonbreeders the following year than do breeders. State-specific survival rates and transition probabilities vary from year to year, but temporal variations of survival and transition probabilities of breeders and nonbreeders are in parallel (on a logit scale). These inferences led us to conclude that nonbreeders tend to be lower quality individuals. The effect of sex was also investigated: males and females do not differ with respect to survival probabilities when reproductive state is taken into account. Similarly, there is no effect of sex on transition probabilities between reproductive states.

  20. Anthropogenic host plant expansion leads a nettle-feeding butterfly out of the forest: consequences for larval survival and developmental plasticity in adult morphology

    PubMed Central

    Merckx, Thomas; Serruys, Mélanie; Van Dyck, Hans

    2015-01-01

    Recent anthropogenic eutrophication has meant that host plants of nettle-feeding insects became quasi-omnipresent in fertile regions of Western Europe. However, host plant resource quality – in terms of microclimate and nutritional value – may vary considerably between the ‘original’ forest habitat and ‘recent’ agricultural habitat. Here, we compared development in both environmental settings using a split-brood design, so as to explore to what extent larval survival and adult morphology in the nettle-feeding butterfly Aglais urticae are influenced by the anthropogenic environment. Nettles along field margins had higher C/N ratios and provided warmer microclimates to larvae. Larvae developed 20% faster and tended to improve their survival rates, on the agricultural land compared to woodland. Our split-brood approach indicated plastic responses within families, but also family effects in the phenotypic responses. Adult males and females had darker wing pigmentation in the drier and warmer agricultural environment, which contrasts with the thermal melanism hypothesis. Developmental plasticity in response to this microclimatically different and more variable habitat was associated with a broader phenotypic parameter space for the species. Both habitat expansion and developmental plasticity are likely contributors to the ecological and evolutionary success of these nettle-feeding insects in anthropogenic environments under high nitrogen load. PMID:25926881

  1. Anthropogenic host plant expansion leads a nettle-feeding butterfly out of the forest: consequences for larval survival and developmental plasticity in adult morphology.

    PubMed

    Merckx, Thomas; Serruys, Mélanie; Van Dyck, Hans

    2015-04-01

    Recent anthropogenic eutrophication has meant that host plants of nettle-feeding insects became quasi-omnipresent in fertile regions of Western Europe. However, host plant resource quality - in terms of microclimate and nutritional value - may vary considerably between the 'original' forest habitat and 'recent' agricultural habitat. Here, we compared development in both environmental settings using a split-brood design, so as to explore to what extent larval survival and adult morphology in the nettle-feeding butterfly Aglais urticae are influenced by the anthropogenic environment. Nettles along field margins had higher C/N ratios and provided warmer microclimates to larvae. Larvae developed 20% faster and tended to improve their survival rates, on the agricultural land compared to woodland. Our split-brood approach indicated plastic responses within families, but also family effects in the phenotypic responses. Adult males and females had darker wing pigmentation in the drier and warmer agricultural environment, which contrasts with the thermal melanism hypothesis. Developmental plasticity in response to this microclimatically different and more variable habitat was associated with a broader phenotypic parameter space for the species. Both habitat expansion and developmental plasticity are likely contributors to the ecological and evolutionary success of these nettle-feeding insects in anthropogenic environments under high nitrogen load. PMID:25926881

  2. Neuron-enriched cultures of adult rat dorsal root ganglia: establishment, characterization, survival, and neuropeptide expression in response to trophic factors.

    PubMed

    Grothe, C; Unsicker, K

    1987-01-01

    It is unknown whether adult dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neurons require trophic factors for their survival and maintenance of neuropeptide phenotypes. We have established and characterized neuron-enriched cultures of adult rat DRGs and investigated their responses to nerve growth factor (NGF), ciliary neuronotrophic factor (CNTF), pig brain extract (PBE, crude fraction of brain-derived neuronotrophic factor, BDNF), and laminin (LN). DRGs were dissected from levels C1 through L6 and dissociated and freed from myelin fragments and most satellite (S-100-immunoreactive) cells by centrifugation on Percoll and preplating. The enriched neurons, characterized by their morphology and immunoreactivity for neuron-specific enolase, constituted a population representative of the in vivo situation with regard to expression of substance P (SP), somatostatin (SOM), and cholecystokinin-8 (CCK) immunoreactivities. In the absence of trophic factors and using polyornithine (PORN) as a substratum, 60-70% of the neurons present initially (0.5 days) had died after 7 days. LN as a substratum did not prevent a 30% loss of neurons up to day 4.5, but it subsequently maintained DRG neurons at a plateau. This behavior might reflect a cotrophic effect of LN and factors provided by non-neuronal cells, whose proliferation between 4.5 and 7 days could not be prevented by addition of mitotic inhibitors of gamma-irradiation. CNTF, but not NGF, slightly enhanced survival at 7 days on either PORN or LN. No neuronal losses were found in non-enriched cultures or when enriched neurons were supplemented with PBE, indicating that non-neuronal cells and PBE provide factor(s) essential for adult DRG neuron survival. Proportions of SP-, SOM-, and CCK-immunoreactive cells were unaltered under any experimental condition, with the exception of a numerical decline in SP cells in 7-day cultures with LN, but not PORN, as the substratum. Our data, considered in the context of recent in vivo and vitro studies, suggest

  3. Neuron-enriched cultures of adult rat dorsal root ganglia: establishment, characterization, survival, and neuropeptide expression in response to trophic factors.

    PubMed

    Grothe, C; Unsicker, K

    1987-01-01

    It is unknown whether adult dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neurons require trophic factors for their survival and maintenance of neuropeptide phenotypes. We have established and characterized neuron-enriched cultures of adult rat DRGs and investigated their responses to nerve growth factor (NGF), ciliary neuronotrophic factor (CNTF), pig brain extract (PBE, crude fraction of brain-derived neuronotrophic factor, BDNF), and laminin (LN). DRGs were dissected from levels C1 through L6 and dissociated and freed from myelin fragments and most satellite (S-100-immunoreactive) cells by centrifugation on Percoll and preplating. The enriched neurons, characterized by their morphology and immunoreactivity for neuron-specific enolase, constituted a population representative of the in vivo situation with regard to expression of substance P (SP), somatostatin (SOM), and cholecystokinin-8 (CCK) immunoreactivities. In the absence of trophic factors and using polyornithine (PORN) as a substratum, 60-70% of the neurons present initially (0.5 days) had died after 7 days. LN as a substratum did not prevent a 30% loss of neurons up to day 4.5, but it subsequently maintained DRG neurons at a plateau. This behavior might reflect a cotrophic effect of LN and factors provided by non-neuronal cells, whose proliferation between 4.5 and 7 days could not be prevented by addition of mitotic inhibitors of gamma-irradiation. CNTF, but not NGF, slightly enhanced survival at 7 days on either PORN or LN. No neuronal losses were found in non-enriched cultures or when enriched neurons were supplemented with PBE, indicating that non-neuronal cells and PBE provide factor(s) essential for adult DRG neuron survival. Proportions of SP-, SOM-, and CCK-immunoreactive cells were unaltered under any experimental condition, with the exception of a numerical decline in SP cells in 7-day cultures with LN, but not PORN, as the substratum. Our data, considered in the context of recent in vivo and vitro studies, suggest

  4. The Bone Morphogenetic Protein Type Ib Receptor Is a Major Mediator of Glial Differentiation and Cell Survival in Adult Hippocampal Progenitor Cell Culture

    PubMed Central

    Brederlau, A.; Faigle, R.; Elmi, M.; Zarebski, A.; Sjöberg, S.; Fujii, M.; Miyazono, K.; Funa, K.

    2004-01-01

    Bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) act as growth regulators and inducers of differentiation. They transduce their signal via three different type I receptors, termed activin receptor-like kinase 2 (Alk2), Alk3, or bone morphogenetic protein receptor Ia (BMPRIa) and Alk6 or BMPRIb. Little is known about functional differences between the three type I receptors. Here, we have investigated consequences of constitutively active (ca) and dominant negative (dn) type I receptor overexpression in adult-derived hippocampal progenitor cells (AHPs). The dn receptors have a nonfunctional intracellular but functional extracellular domain. They thus trap BMPs that are endogenously produced by AHPs. We found that effects obtained by overexpression of dnAlk2 and dnAlk6 were similar, suggesting similar ligand binding patterns for these receptors. Thus, cell survival was decreased, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) expression was reduced, whereas the number of oligodendrocytes increased. No effect on neuronal differentiation was seen. Whereas the expression of Alk2 and Alk3 mRNA remained unchanged, the Alk6 mRNA was induced after impaired BMP signaling. After dnAlk3 overexpression, cell survival and astroglial differentiation increased in parallel to augmented Alk6 receptor signaling. We conclude that endogenous BMPs mediate cell survival, astroglial differentiation and the suppression of oligodendrocytic cell fate mainly via the Alk6 receptor in AHP culture. PMID:15194807

  5. Possible benefit of consolidation therapy with high-dose cytarabine on overall survival of adults with non-promyelocytic acute myeloid leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Azevedo, M.C.; Velloso, E.D.R.P.; Buccheri, V.; Chamone, D.A.F.; Dorlhiac-Llacer, P.E.

    2014-01-01

    In adults with non-promyelocytic acute myeloid leukemia (AML), high-dose cytarabine consolidation therapy has been shown to influence survival in selected patients, although the appropriate doses and schemes have not been defined. We evaluated survival after calculating the actual dose of cytarabine that patients received for consolidation therapy and divided them into 3 groups according to dose. We conducted a single-center, retrospective study involving 311 non-promyelocytic AML patients with a median age of 36 years (16-79 years) who received curative treatment between 1978 and 2007. The 131 patients who received cytarabine consolidation were assigned to study groups by their cytarabine dose protocol. Group 1 (n=69) received <1.5 g/m2 every 12 h on 3 alternate days for up to 4 cycles. The remaining patients received high-dose cytarabine (≥1.5 g/m2 every 12 h on 3 alternate days for up to 4 cycles). The actual dose received during the entire consolidation period in these patients was calculated, allowing us to divide these patients into 2 additional groups. Group 2 (n=27) received an intermediate-high-dose (<27 g/m2), and group 3 (n=35) received a very-high-dose (≥27 g/m2). Among the 311 patients receiving curative treatment, the 5-year survival rate was 20.2% (63 patients). The cytarabine consolidation dose was an independent determinant of survival in multivariate analysis; age, karyotype, induction protocol, French-American-British classification, and de novo leukemia were not. Comparisons showed that the risk of death was higher in the intermediate-high-dose group 2 (hazard ratio [HR]=4.51; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.81-11.21) and the low-dose group 1 (HR=4.43; 95% CI: 1.97-9.96) than in the very-high-dose group 3, with no significant difference between those two groups. Our findings indicated that very-high-dose cytarabine during consolidation in adults with non-promyelocytic AML may improve survival. PMID:25517921

  6. Divorce Is a Part of My Life . . . Resilience, Survival, and Vulnerability: Young Adults' Perception of the Implications of Parental Divorce

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eldar-Avidan, Dorit; Haj-Yahia, Muhammad M.; Greenbaum, Charles W.

    2009-01-01

    A qualitative study among 22 young adults (20-25 years old) whose parents divorced during their childhood was conducted in Israel, using semi-structured, in-depth, open-ended interviews. Qualitative data analysis led to identification of three profiles, aiming at a grounded theoretical conceptualization. Three core themes were identified: the…

  7. Effects of pyriproxyfen on off-host water-balance and survival of adult lone star ticks (Acari: Ixodidae).

    PubMed

    Strey, O F; Teel, P D; Longnecker, M T

    2001-07-01

    Newly engorged nymphs of the lone star tick, Amblyoma americanum (L.), were continuously exposed to 4 microg/cm2 of pyriproxyfen residues in glass vials. Treatment of engorged nymphs (n = 285) resulted in significant molting inhibition, with more than one-fourth (26.7%, n = 76) of nymphs dying before or during ecdysis. Treatment effects were evident among ticks that molted to the adult stage, with 26.7% (n = 76) of females, and 17.9% (n = 51) of males exhibiting moribund physical characteristics (i.e., lethargy; dull, discolored and desiccated cuticles; lacking full locomotor competency). A few molted adult ticks (10 males, four females) were dead upon inspection. Only 11.2% of pyriproxyfen treated, emergent females (n = 32), and 11.5% of treated emergent males (n = 25) from 285 ticks treated as engorged nymphs, exhibited normal physical appearance and possessed a full range of locomotor activity. Treated adult ticks maintained within a desiccating environmental chamber at 0% RH and 23 degrees C, had significantly accelerated whole-body water loss rates in comparison to untreated males and females maintained under the same environmental conditions. Additionally, treated adult ticks maintained under optimal environmental conditions (23 degrees C and >95% RH) sustained 100% mortality within 32 d following assignment to these conditions (or 79 d posttreatment as engorged nymphs), whereas untreated ticks had 0% mortality for the same duration of time. Results demonstrate that continuous exposure of nymphs to pyriproxyfen disrupted molting, and accelerated both whole-body water loss and subsequent mortality among emergent adult ticks.

  8. Geographic Variation of Photoperiodic Diapause but Not Adult Survival or Reproduction of the Invasive Mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in North America

    PubMed Central

    Leisnham, P. T.; Towler, L.; Juliano, S. A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate differences across latitude can result in seasonal constraints and selection on life-history characters. Because Aedes albopictus (Skuse) invaded North America in the mid-1980s, it has spread across a range of ≈14° latitude and populations in the north experience complete adult mortality because of cold winter temperatures that are absent in the south. Life-table experiments were conducted to test for differences in the adult survival and reproductive schedules of Ae. albopictus females from three populations from the northern (Salem, NJ; Springfield, IL; Eureka, MO; ≈39° N) and southern (Palm Beach, Palmetto, Tampa, FL; ≈27–28° N) extremes of the species distribution in North America. There were consistent differences between northern and southern populations in incidence of photoperiodically-induced egg diapause. Under short daylength, diapause eggs constituted twice the proportion of total viable eggs from northern females (81.9–92.1%) than southern females (35.9–42.7%). There were no consistent differences between northern and southern populations in resource allocation between reproduction and maintenance, reproduction over time, and reproductive investment among offspring, and no apparent trade-offs between diapause incidence with reproduction or longevity. Our results suggest that the main response of North American Ae. albopictus to unfavorable winter climates is via the life history strategy of producing diapausing eggs, rather than quantitative variation in reproduction, and that there are no detectable costs to adult survival. Inherent geographic variation in the expression of diapause, consistent with the latitudinal extremes of A. albopictus, indicates evolutionary loss of diapause response in southern populations because of the invasion of A. albopictus in North America. PMID:22707762

  9. Irradiation of the potential cancer stem cell niches in the adult brain improves progression-free survival of patients with malignant glioma

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Glioblastoma is the most common brain tumor in adults. The mechanisms leading to glioblastoma are not well understood but animal studies support that inactivation of tumor suppressor genes in neural stem cells (NSC) is required and sufficient to induce glial cancers. This suggests that the NSC niches in the brain may harbor cancer stem cells (CSCs), Thus providing novel therapy targets. We hypothesize that higher radiation doses to these NSC niches improve patient survival by eradicating CSCs. Methods 55 adult patients with Grade 3 or Grade 4 glial cancer treated with radiotherapy at UCLA between February of 2003 and May of 2009 were included in this retrospective study. Using radiation planning software and patient radiological records, the SVZ and SGL were reconstructed for each of these patients and dosimetry data for these structures was calculated. Results Using Kaplan-Meier analysis we show that patients whose bilateral subventricular zone (SVZ) received greater than the median SVZ dose (= 43 Gy) had a significant improvement in progression-free survival if compared to patients who received less than the median dose (15.0 vs 7.2 months PFS; P = 0.028). Furthermore, a mean dose >43 Gy to the bilateral SVZ yielded a hazard ratio of 0.73 (P = 0.019). Importantly, similarly analyzing total prescription dose failed to illustrate a statistically significant impact. Conclusions Our study leads us to hypothesize that in glioma targeted radiotherapy of the stem cell niches in the adult brain could yield significant benefits over radiotherapy of the primary tumor mass alone and that damage caused by smaller fractions of radiation maybe less efficiently detected by the DNA repair mechanisms in CSCs. PMID:20663133

  10. Religion and survival in a secular region. A twenty year follow-up of 734 Danish adults born in 1914.

    PubMed

    la Cour, Peter; Avlund, Kirsten; Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the study was to analyse associations of religiosity and mortality in a secular region. The sample consisted of 734 Danish, community dwelling elderly persons, living in a secular culture, and all aged 70 when primary data were collected. Secondary data consisted of a 20 year follow-up on vital status or exact age of death. The study was designed to be highly comparable to studies conducted in more religious environments in order to compare results. Three variables of religion were investigated in relation to survival: importance of affiliation, church attendance and listening to religious media. Relative hazards (RH) of dying were controlled in models including gender, education, medical and mental health, social relations, help given and received, and health behaviour. The results showed significant and positive associations between claiming religious affiliation important and survival (relative hazard of dying=RH .70; 95% CI .58-.85) and church attendance and survival (RH .73; 95% CI .64-.87). Results decreased and only stayed significant regarding church attendance when controlled for covariates. Nearly all significant effects were seen in women, but not in men. The effect size of the full sample is less than in more religious environments in United States samples. Although the positive overall RHs are comparable to those of other studies, the mediating variables and pathways of effects seem dissimilar in this sample from a secular environment. Receiving and especially giving help to others are suggested as variables of explanatory value.

  11. EGFR is dispensable for c-Met-mediated proliferation and survival activities in mouse adult liver oval cells.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Palacián, A; del Castillo, G; Herrera, B; Fernández, M; Roncero, C; Fabregat, I; Sánchez, A

    2012-02-01

    Liver progenitor cells rise as potential critical players in hepatic regeneration but also carcinogenesis. It is therefore mandatory to define the signals controlling their activation and expansion. Recently, by using a novel in vitro model of oval cell lines expressing a mutant tyrosine kinase-inactive form of c-Met we demonstrated that autocrine c-Met signalling plays an essential role in promoting oval cell survival. Here, we investigated the significance of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signalling in oval cell proliferation and survival, as well as a potential functional crosstalk between the c-Met and the EGFR pathways. We found an autocrine activation of the EGFR-triggered pathway in Met(flx/flx) and Met(-/-) oval cells as judged by constitutive expression of the EGFR ligands, transforming growth factor-alpha (TGF-α) and heparin-binding EGF like growth factor (HB-EGF), and activation of EGFR. On the other hand, treatment with AG1478, a specific inhibitor of EGFR, effectively blocked endogenous and EGF-induced proliferation, while increased serum withdrawal and transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-β)-induced apoptosis. These results suggest that constitutively activated EGFR might promote oval cell proliferation and survival. We found that hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) does not transactivate EGFR nor EGF transactivates c-Met. Furthermore, treatment with AG1478 or EGFR gene silencing did not interfere with HGF-mediated activation of target signals, such as protein kinase B (AKT/PKB), and extracellular signal-regulated kinases 1/2 (ERK 1/2), nor did it have any effect on HGF-induced proliferative and antiapoptotic activities in Met(flx/flx) cells, showing that HGF does not require EGFR activation to mediate such responses. EGF induced proliferation and survival equally in Met(flx/flx) and Met(-/-) oval cells, proving that EGFR signalling does not depend on c-Met tyrosine kinase activity. Together, our results provide strong evidence that in

  12. Reproductive effects and duckling survivability following chronic dosing with tungsten-iron and tungsten-polymer shot in adult game-farm mallards.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, R R; Fitzgerald, S D; Aulerich, R J; Balander, R J; Powell, D C; Tempelmen, R J; Stevens, W; Bursia, S J

    2001-07-01

    Tungsten-iron and tungsten-polymer shot were given conditional approval for waterfowl hunting by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service based partly on the results of a 30-day acute toxicity trial utilizing mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). Final approval of the two tungsten-containing shot was contingent on the results of a 150-day study that assessed the health and reproductive effects of tungsten-iron and tungsten-polymer shot in adult mallards. Reproductive data are presented in this paper. Sixteen male and 16 female adult mallards were dosed orally with eight #4 steel shot (control), eight #4 tungsten-iron shot, or eight #4 tungsten-polymer shot on days 0, 30, 60, 90, and 120 of a 150-day trial (26 January 1998 to 25 June 1998). Reproductive performance was assessed during the last 90 days (day 61 to day 150) of the trial. There were no significant differences in egg production and fertility and hatchability of eggs from tungsten-iron- and tungsten-polymer-dosed ducks compared to control ducks. There was no evidence of differences in percent survivability and body weight of ducklings from tungsten-iron and tungsten-polymer mallards compared to ducklings from control ducks. Tungsten-iron or tungsten-polymer shot repeatedly administered to adult mallards during the 150 day trial did not adversely affect reproduction or their offspring.

  13. Brain metastasis of ALK positive anaplastic large cell lymphoma after a long-term disease free survival in an old adult

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Cai-Xia; Wang, Hai; Li, Jie; Ma, Heng-Hui; Yu, Bo; Shi, Shan-Shan; Zhou, Xiao-Jun; Shi, Qun-Li

    2014-01-01

    Anaplastic large cell lymphoma (ALCL) is a subtype of non-Hodgkin lymphoma composed of CD30-positive cells and now recognized as three different entities: primary cutaneous ALCL, primary systemic anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)-positive (ALK+) ALCL and primary ALK-negative (ALK-) ALCL. ALK+ ALCL is supposed to have a better prognosis than ALK- ALCL. It is rarely metastasized to other sites, especially to the central nervous system (CNS). Herein, we present a rare case of systemic ALK+ ALCL which metastasized to the brain after a long-term disease free survival in an adult. Neuroimaging revealed a well-enhanced mass in the left frontal lobe. And it was completely resected. The results of the pathological and immunohistochemical studies were consistent with the metastasized ALK+ ALCL. The clinical findings, pathologic characteristics and treatment are described. PMID:24696735

  14. Conditional Deletion of NF-κB-Inducing Kinase (NIK) in Adult Mice Disrupts Mature B Cell Survival and Activation.

    PubMed

    Brightbill, Hans D; Jackman, Janet K; Suto, Eric; Kennedy, Heather; Jones, Charles; Chalasani, Sreedevi; Lin, Zhonghua; Tam, Lucinda; Roose-Girma, Meron; Balazs, Mercedesz; Austin, Cary D; Lee, Wyne P; Wu, Lawren C

    2015-08-01

    NF-κB-inducing kinase (NIK) is a primary regulator of the noncanonical NF-κB signaling pathway, which plays a vital role downstream of BAFF, CD40L, lymphotoxin, and other inflammatory mediators. Germline deletion or inactivation of NIK in mice results in the defective development of B cells and secondary lymphoid organs, but the role of NIK in adult animals has not been studied. To address this, we generated mice containing a conditional allele of NIK. Deletion of NIK in adult mice results in decreases in B cell populations in lymph nodes and spleen, similar to what is observed upon blockade of BAFF. Consistent with this, B cells from mice in which NIK is acutely deleted fail to respond to BAFF stimulation in vitro and in vivo. In addition, mice with induced NIK deletion exhibit a significant decrease in germinal center B cells and serum IgA, which is indicative of roles for NIK in additional pathways beyond BAFF signaling. Our conditional NIK-knockout mice may be broadly useful for assessing the postdevelopmental and cell-specific roles of NIK and the noncanonical NF-κB pathway in mice.

  15. Effects of salinity on egg and fecal pellet production, development and survival, adult sex ratio and total life span in the calanoid copepod, Acartia tonsa: a laboratory study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shayegan, Majid; Esmaeili Fereidouni, Abolghasem; Agh, Naser; Jani Khalili, Khosrow

    2016-07-01

    The effects of salinity on the copepod, Acartia tonsa in terms of daily egg production rate (EPR), hatching success, fecal pellet production rate (FPR), naupliar development time and survival, sex ratio, and total life span were determined in laboratory conditions through three experiments. In experiment 1, EPR, hatching success, and FPR of individual females were monitored at salinities of 13, 20, 35 and 45 during short-periods (seven consecutive days). Results show EPR was affected by salinity with the highest outputs recorded at 20 and 35, respectively, which were considerably higher than those at 13 and 45. Mean FPR was also higher in 35 and 20. In experiment 2, the same parameters were evaluated over total life span of females (long-term study). The best EPR and FPR were observed in 35, which was statistically higher than at 13 and 20. In experiment 3, survival rates of early nauplii until adult stage were lowest at a salinity of 13. The development time increased with increasing of salinity. Female percentage clearly decreased with increasing salinity. Higher female percentages (56.7% and 52.2%, respectively) were significantly observed at two salinities of 13 and 20 compared to that at 35 (25%). Total longevity of females was not affected by salinity increment. Based on our results, for mass culture we recommend that a salinity of 35 be adopted due to higher reproductive performances, better feeding, and faster development of A. tonsa.

  16. Survival estimates for Florida manatees from the photo-identification of individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Edwards, H.H.; Fick-Child, K. J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Barton, S.L.; Hartley, W.C.

    2004-01-01

    We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four regional populations using photo-identification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727-0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827-0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946-0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.

  17. Survival and behavioral effects of exposure to a hydrokinetic turbine on juvenile Atlantic salmon and adult American shad

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Castro-Santos, Theodore R.; Haro, Alex

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a series of experiments designed to measure the effect of exposure to a full-scale, vertical axis hydrokinetic turbine on downstream migrating juvenile Atlantic salmon (N=75) and upstream migrating adult American shad (N=208). Controlled studies were performed in a large-scale, open-channel flume, and all individuals approached the turbine under volitional control. No injuries were observed, and there was no measurable increase in mortality associated with turbine passage. Exposure to the turbine elicited behavioral responses from both species, however, with salmon passing primarily over the downrunning blades. Shad movement was impeded by the device, as indicated by fewer attempts of shorter duration and reduced distance of ascent up the flume. More work should be performed in both laboratory and field conditions to determine to what extent these effects are likely to influence free-swimming fish.

  18. Limited Lung Function: Impact of Reduced Peak Expiratory Flow on Health Status, Health-Care Utilization, and Expected Survival in Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Roberts, Melissa H.; Mapel, Douglas W.

    2012-01-01

    The authors examined whether peak expiratory flow (PEF) is a valid measure of health status in older adults. Survey and test data from the 2006 and 2008 cycles of the Health and Retirement Study, a longitudinal study of US adults over age 50 years (with biennial surveys initiated in 1992), were used to develop predicted PEF regression models and to examine relations between low PEF values and other clinical factors. Low PEF (<80% of predicted value) was prevalent among persons with chronic conditions, including frequent pain, obstructive lung disease, heart disease, diabetes, and psychological distress. Persons with higher physical disability scores had substantially higher adjusted odds of having low PEF, on par with those for conditions known to be associated with poor health (cancer, heart disease, and stroke). In a multivariate regression model for difficulty with mobility, PEF remained an independent factor (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.53, 1.86). Persons with low PEF in 2006 were more likely to be hospitalized (OR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.43) within the subsequent 2 years and to estimate their chances of surviving for 10 or more years at less than 50% (OR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.30). PEF is a valid measure of health status in older persons, and low PEF is an independent predictor of hospitalization and poor subjective mortality assessment. PMID:22759722

  19. Multidimensional Geriatric Prognostic Index, Based on a Geriatric Assessment, for Long-Term Survival in Older Adults in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Hee-Won; Han, Ji Won; Kim, Kayoung; Kim, Jee Hyun; Kim, Kwang-Il; Kim, Cheol-Ho

    2016-01-01

    The patient´s survival estimate is important for clinical decision-making, especially in frail patients with multimorbidities. We aimed to develop a multidimensional geriatric prognosis index (GPI) for 3- and 5-year mortality in community-dwelling elderly and to validate the GPI in a separate hospital-based population. The GPI was constructed using data for 988 participants in the Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging (KLoSHA) and cross-validated with 1109 patients who underwent a geriatric assessment at the Seoul National University Bundang Hospital (SNUBH). The GPI, with a total possible score of 8, included age, gender, activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, comorbidities, mood, cognitive function, and nutritional status. During the 5-year observation period, 179 KLoSHA participants (18.1%) and 340 SNUBH patients (30.7%) died. The c-indices for 3- and 5-year mortality were 0.78 and 0.80, respectively, in the KLoSHA group and 0.73 and 0.80, respectively, in the SNUBH group. Positive linear trends were observed for GPI scores and both 3- and 5-year mortality in both groups. In conclusions, using common components of a geriatric assessment, the GPI can stratify the risk of 3- and 5-year mortality in Korean elderly people both in the community and hospital. PMID:26771562

  20. Postfledging survival of European starlings

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1989-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that mass at fledging and fledge date within the breeding season affect postfledging survival in European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Nestlings were weighed on day 18 after hatch and tagged with individually identifiable patagial tags. Fledge date was recorded. Marked fledglings were resighted during weekly two-day intensive observation periods for 9 weeks postfledging. Post-fledging survival and sighting probabilities were estimated for each of four groups (early or late fledging by heavy or light fledging mass). Body mass was related to post-fledging survival for birds that fledged early. Results were not clear-cut for relative fledge date, although there was weak evidence that this also influenced survival. Highest survival probability estimates occurred in the EARLY-HEAVY group, while the lowest survival estimate occurred in the LATE-LIGHT group. Sighting probabilities differed significantly among groups, emphasizing the need to estimate and compare survival using models which explicitly incorporate sighting probabilities.

  1. A prognostic model for survival after salvage treatment with FLAG-Ida +/- gemtuzumab-ozogamicine in adult patients with refractory/relapsed acute myeloid leukaemia.

    PubMed

    Bergua, Juan M; Montesinos, Pau; Martinez-Cuadrón, David; Fernández-Abellán, Pascual; Serrano, Josefina; Sayas, María J; Prieto-Fernandez, Julio; García, Raimundo; García-Huerta, Ana J; Barrios, Manuel; Benavente, Celina; Pérez-Encinas, Manuel; Simiele, Adriana; Rodríguez-Macias, Gabriela; Herrera-Puente, Pilar; Rodríguez-Veiga, Rebeca; Martínez-Sánchez, María P; Amador-Barciela, María L; Riaza-Grau, Rosalía; Sanz, Miguel A

    2016-09-01

    The combination of fludarabine, cytarabine, idarubicin, and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (FLAG-Ida) is widely used in relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). We retrospectively analysed the results of 259 adult AML patients treated as first salvage with FLAG-Ida or FLAG-Ida plus Gentuzumab-Ozogamicin (FLAGO-Ida) of the Programa Español de Tratamientos en Hematología (PETHEMA) database, developing a prognostic score system of survival in this setting (SALFLAGE score). Overall, 221 patients received FLAG-Ida and 38 FLAGO-Ida; 92 were older than 60 years. The complete remission (CR)/CR with incomplete blood count recovery (CRi) rate was 51%, with 9% of induction deaths. Three covariates were associated with lower CR/CRi: high-risk cytogenetics and t(8;21) at diagnosis, no previous allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT) and relapse-free interval <1 year. Allo-SCT was performed in second CR in 60 patients (23%). The median overall survival (OS) of the entire cohort was 0·7 years, with 22% OS at 5-years. Four independent variables were used to construct the score: cytogenetics, FLT3-internal tandem duplication, length of relapse-free interval and previous allo-SCT. Using this stratification system, three groups were defined: favourable (26% of patients), intermediate (29%) and poor-risk (45%), with an expected 5-year OS of 52%, 26% and 7%, respectively. The SALFLAGE score discriminated a subset of patients with an acceptable long-term outcome using FLAG-Ida/FLAGO-Ida regimen. The results of this retrospective analysis should be validated in independent external cohorts.

  2. A prognostic model for survival after salvage treatment with FLAG-Ida +/- gemtuzumab-ozogamicine in adult patients with refractory/relapsed acute myeloid leukaemia.

    PubMed

    Bergua, Juan M; Montesinos, Pau; Martinez-Cuadrón, David; Fernández-Abellán, Pascual; Serrano, Josefina; Sayas, María J; Prieto-Fernandez, Julio; García, Raimundo; García-Huerta, Ana J; Barrios, Manuel; Benavente, Celina; Pérez-Encinas, Manuel; Simiele, Adriana; Rodríguez-Macias, Gabriela; Herrera-Puente, Pilar; Rodríguez-Veiga, Rebeca; Martínez-Sánchez, María P; Amador-Barciela, María L; Riaza-Grau, Rosalía; Sanz, Miguel A

    2016-09-01

    The combination of fludarabine, cytarabine, idarubicin, and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (FLAG-Ida) is widely used in relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). We retrospectively analysed the results of 259 adult AML patients treated as first salvage with FLAG-Ida or FLAG-Ida plus Gentuzumab-Ozogamicin (FLAGO-Ida) of the Programa Español de Tratamientos en Hematología (PETHEMA) database, developing a prognostic score system of survival in this setting (SALFLAGE score). Overall, 221 patients received FLAG-Ida and 38 FLAGO-Ida; 92 were older than 60 years. The complete remission (CR)/CR with incomplete blood count recovery (CRi) rate was 51%, with 9% of induction deaths. Three covariates were associated with lower CR/CRi: high-risk cytogenetics and t(8;21) at diagnosis, no previous allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT) and relapse-free interval <1 year. Allo-SCT was performed in second CR in 60 patients (23%). The median overall survival (OS) of the entire cohort was 0·7 years, with 22% OS at 5-years. Four independent variables were used to construct the score: cytogenetics, FLT3-internal tandem duplication, length of relapse-free interval and previous allo-SCT. Using this stratification system, three groups were defined: favourable (26% of patients), intermediate (29%) and poor-risk (45%), with an expected 5-year OS of 52%, 26% and 7%, respectively. The SALFLAGE score discriminated a subset of patients with an acceptable long-term outcome using FLAG-Ida/FLAGO-Ida regimen. The results of this retrospective analysis should be validated in independent external cohorts. PMID:27118319

  3. Social and ecological factors influencing offspring survival in wild macaques

    PubMed Central

    Kerhoas, Daphne; Perwitasari-Farajallah, Dyah; Agil, Muhammad; Widdig, Anja

    2014-01-01

    Premature loss of offspring decreases direct fitness of parents. In gregarious mammals, both ecological and social variables impact offspring survival and may interact with each other in this regard. Although a number of studies have investigated factors influencing offspring loss in mammals, we still know very little on how different factors interact with one another. We therefore investigated fetal and infant mortality in 3 large groups of wild crested macaques (Macaca nigra) over a period of up to 5 years by including potential social causes such as maternal dominance rank, male immigration, between group encounters, and ecological conditions such as rainfall in a multivariate survival analysis using Cox proportional hazards model. Infant but not fetal survival was most impaired after a recent takeover of the alpha-male position by an immigrant male. Furthermore, infant survival probability increased when there was an increase in number of group adult females and rainfall. Fetal survival probability also increased with an increase of these 2 factors, but more in high-ranking than low-ranking females. Fetal survival, unlike that of infants, was also improved by an increase of intergroup encounter rates. Our study thus stresses the importance of survival analyses using a multivariate approach and encompassing more than a single offspring stage to investigate the determinants of female direct fitness. We further provide evidence for fitness costs and benefits of group living, possibly deriving from high pressures of both within- and between-group competition, in a wild primate population. PMID:25214754

  4. Delayed plumage maturation increases overwinter survival in North Island robins.

    PubMed Central

    Berggren, Asa; Armstrong, Doug P.; Lewis, Rebecca M.

    2004-01-01

    Many bird species show delayed plumage maturation (DPM), retaining sub-adult plumage until after their first breeding season. Most explanations assume that DPM increases fitness over the breeding season. However, unless birds undergo a full moult before breeding, DPM could also be an adaptation to increase survival over the previous winter. The winter adaptation hypothesis has never been tested owing to the difficulty of measuring overwinter survival. We experimentally tested this hypothesis in North Island robins (Petroica longipes) using a closed island population where we could accurately estimate survival. The experiment involved dyeing 41 juveniles to mimic adult males, and comparing their survival with 41 control juveniles treated with the same peroxide base minus the pigment. The population was monitored with a series of resighting surveys, and mark-recapture analysis used to estimate overwinter survival. Survival probability was estimated to be 10% for dyed birds versus 61% for control birds in 2001, and 29% for dyed birds versus 40% for control birds in the winter of 2002, supporting the winter adaptation hypothesis for DPM. Access to suitable habitat is the key factor limiting juvenile survival in this population, and the locations where dyed juveniles were sighted suggest that they were often excluded from suitable areas. PMID:15475331

  5. Survival of mountain quail translocated from two distinct source populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Troy, Ronald J.; Coates, Peter S.; Connelly, John W.; Gillette, Gifford; Delehanty, David J.

    2013-01-01

    Translocation of mountain quail (Oreortyx pictus) to restore viable populations to their former range has become a common practice. Because differences in post-release vital rates between animals from multiple source populations has not been well studied, wildlife and land managers may arbitrarily choose the source population or base the source population on immediate availability when planning translocation projects. Similarly, an understanding of the optimal proportion of individuals from different age and sex classes for translocation would benefit translocation planning. During 2006 and 2007, we captured and translocated 125 mountain quail from 2 ecologically distinct areas: 38 from southern California and 87 from southwestern Oregon. We released mountain quail in the Bennett Hills of south-central Idaho. We radio-marked and monitored a subsample of 58 quail and used them for a 2-part survival analysis. Cumulative survival probability was 0.23 ± 0.05 (SE) at 150 days post-release. We first examined an a priori hypothesis (model) that survival varied between the 2 distinct source populations. We found that source population did not explain variation in survival. This result suggests that wildlife managers have flexibility in selecting source populations for mountain quail translocation efforts. In a post hoc examination, we pooled the quail across source populations and evaluated differences in survival probabilities between sex and age classes. The most parsimonious model indicated that adult male survival was substantially less than survival rates of other mountain quail age and sex classes (i.e., interaction between sex and age). This result suggests that translocation success could benefit by translocating yearling males rather than adult males, perhaps because adult male breeding behavior results in vulnerability to predators

  6. Probability 1/e

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  7. Factors affecting breeding season survival of Red-Headed Woodpeckers in South Carolina.

    SciTech Connect

    Kilgo, John, C.; Vukovich, Mark

    2011-11-18

    Red-headed woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus) populations have declined in the United States and Canada over the past 40 years. However, few demographic studies have been published on the species and none have addressed adult survival. During 2006-2007, we estimated survival probabilities of 80 radio-tagged red-headed woodpeckers during the breeding season in mature loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) forests in South Carolina. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to estimate survival within and between years and to evaluate the effects of foliar cover (number of available cover patches), snag density treatment (high density vs. low density), and sex and age of woodpeckers. Weekly survival probabilities followed a quadratic time trend, being lowest during mid-summer, which coincided with the late nestling and fledgling period. Avian predation, particularly by Cooper's (Accipiter cooperii) and sharp-shinned hawks (A. striatus), accounted for 85% of all mortalities. Our best-supported model estimated an 18-week breeding season survival probability of 0.72 (95% CI = 0.54-0.85) and indicated that the number of cover patches interacted with sex of woodpeckers to affect survival; females with few available cover patches had a lower probability of survival than either males or females with more cover patches. At the median number of cover patches available (n = 6), breeding season survival of females was 0.82 (95% CI = 0.54-0.94) and of males was 0.60 (95% CI = 0.42-0.76). The number of cover patches available to woodpeckers appeared in all 3 of our top models predicting weekly survival, providing further evidence that woodpecker survival was positively associated with availability of cover. Woodpecker survival was not associated with snag density. Our results suggest that protection of {ge}0.7 cover patches per ha during vegetation control activities in mature pine forests will benefit survival of this Partners In Flight Watch List species.

  8. Survival on antiretroviral treatment among adult HIV-infected patients in Nepal: a retrospective cohort study in far-western Region, 2006–2011

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Though financial and policy level efforts are made to expand antiretroviral treatment (ART) service free of cost, survival outcome of ART program has not been systematically evaluated in Nepal. This study assesses the mortality rates and determinants among adult HIV-infected patients on ART in Far-western region of Nepal. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 1024 (51.2% men) HIV-infected patients aged ≥15 years, who started ART between May 15th 2006 and May 15th 2011 in five ART sites in the Far-western region, Nepal. Follow-up time was calculated from the date of ART initiation to date of death or censoring (loss to follow-up, transferred out, or 15 November 2011). Mortality rates (per 100 person-years) were calculated. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression models were used to estimate survival and explore determinants of mortality. Results The median follow-up time was 19.1 months. The crude mortality rate was 6.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.6) but more than three-times higher in first 3 months after ART initiation (21.9 (95% CI 16.6- 28.8)). About 12% (83% men) of those newly initiated on ART died during follow-up. The independent determinants of mortality were male sex (hazard ratio (HR) 4.55, 95% CI 2.43-8.51), poor baseline performance scale (bedridden <50% of the day during the past month, HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.19-3.52; bedridden >50% of the day during the past month, HR 3.41, 95% CI 1.67-6.98 compared to normal activity), one standard deviation decrease in baseline bodyweight (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07), and poor WHO clinical stage (stage III, HR 2.96, 95% CI 1.31-6.69; stage IV, HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.30-8.29 compared to WHO clinical stage I or II). Conclusions High mortality was observed within the first 3 months of ART initiation. Patients with poor baseline clinical characteristics had higher mortality, especially men. Earlier initiation of ART through expanded testing and counselling should be encouraged in HIV-infected patients. PMID

  9. The effects of body size and climate on post-weaning survival of elephant seals at Heard Island

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McMahon, Clive R; New, Leslie; Fairley, E.J.; Hindell, M.A.; Burton, H.R.

    2015-01-01

    The population size of southern elephant seals in the southern Indian and Pacific Oceans decreased precipitously between the 1950s and 1990s. To investigate the reasons behind this, we studied the population of southern elephant seals at Heard Island between 1949 and 1954, using data collected by the early Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions. Seals were marked and measured (lengths) as weaned pups, and resighted at Heard and Marion islands and in the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica in subsequent years. Bayesian state-space mark-recapture models were used to determine post-weaning survival. Yearling survival was consistently lower (ϕy: 0.28–0.40) than sub-adult survival (ϕs: 0.79–0.83). We found evidence for constant sub-adult survival and time-dependent resight probabilities. Weaning length was an important determinate of yearling survival, with the probability of survival increasing with individual length. There was some suggestion that the Southern Annular Mode influenced yearling survival but this evidence was not strong. Nonetheless, our results provide further support showing that size at independence affects yearling survival. Given the known sensitivity of southern elephant seal populations to survival early in life, it is possible that the decline in population size at Heard Island between the 1950s and 1990s like that at Macquarie Island was due to low yearling survival mediated through maternal ability to produce large pups and the dominant environmental conditions mothers experience during pregnancy.

  10. On Probability Domains III

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

    2015-12-01

    Domains of generalized probability have been introduced in order to provide a general construction of random events, observables and states. It is based on the notion of a cogenerator and the properties of product. We continue our previous study and show how some other quantum structures fit our categorical approach. We discuss how various epireflections implicitly used in the classical probability theory are related to the transition to fuzzy probability theory and describe the latter probability theory as a genuine categorical extension of the former. We show that the IF-probability can be studied via the fuzzy probability theory. We outline a "tensor modification" of the fuzzy probability theory.

  11. Linking habitat selection and predation risk to spatial variation in survival.

    PubMed

    DeCesare, Nicholas J; Hebblewhite, Mark; Bradley, Mark; Hervieux, David; Neufeld, Lalenia; Musiani, Marco

    2014-03-01

    A central assumption underlying the study of habitat selection is that selected habitats confer enhanced fitness. Unfortunately, this assumption is rarely tested, and in some systems, gradients of predation risk may more accurately characterize spatial variation in vital rates than gradients described by habitat selection studies. Here, we separately measured spatial patterns of both resource selection and predation risk and tested their relationships with a key demographic trait, adult female survival, for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou Gmelin). We also evaluated whether exposure to gradients in both predation risk and resource selection value was manifested temporally through instantaneous or seasonal effects on survival outcomes. We used Cox proportional hazards spatial survival modelling to assess the relative support for 5 selection- and risk-based definitions of habitat quality, as quantified by woodland caribou adult female survival. These hypotheses included scenarios in which selection ideally mirrored survival, risk entirely drove survival, non-ideal selection correlated with survival but with additive risk effects, an ecological trap with maladaptive selection and a non-spatial effect of annual variation in weather. Indeed, we found positive relationships between the predicted values of a resource selection function (RSF) and survival, yet subsequently incorporating an additional negative effect of predation risk greatly improved models further. This revealed a positive, but non-ideal relationship between selection and survival. Gradients in these covariates were also shown to affect individual survival probability at multiple temporal scales. Exposure to increased predation risk had a relatively instantaneous effect on survival outcomes, whereas variation in habitat suitability predicted by an RSF had both instantaneous and longer-term seasonal effects on survival. Predation risk was an additive source of hazard

  12. Clinical signs, pathology and dose-dependent survival of adult wood frogs, Rana sylvatica, inoculated orally with frog virus 3 Ranavirus sp., Iridoviridae.

    PubMed

    Forzn, Mara J; Jones, Kathleen M; Vanderstichel, Raphal V; Wood, John; Kibenge, Frederick S B; Kuiken, Thijs; Wirth, Wytamma; Ariel, Ellen; Daoust, Pierre-Yves

    2015-05-01

    Amphibian populations suffer massive mortalities from infection with frog virus 3 FV3, genus Ranavirus, family Iridoviridae, a pathogen also involved in mortalities of fish and reptiles. Experimental oral infection with FV3 in captive-raised adult wood frogs, Rana sylvatica Lithobates sylvaticus, was performed as the first step in establishing a native North American animal model of ranaviral disease to study pathogenesis and host response. Oral dosing was successful LD50 was 10(2.93 2.423.44) p.f.u. for frogs averaging 35mm in length. Onset of clinical signs occurred 614days post-infection p.i. median 11 days p.i. and time to death was 1014 days p.i. median 12 days p.i.. Each tenfold increase in virus dose increased the odds of dying by 23-fold and accelerated onset of clinical signs and death by approximately 15. Ranavirus DNA was demonstrated in skin and liver of all frogs that died or were euthanized because of severe clinical signs. Shedding of virus occurred in faeces 710 days p.i. 34.5days before death and skin sheds 10 days p.i. 01.5days before death of some frogs dead from infection. Most common lesions were dermal erosion and haemorrhages haematopoietic necrosis in bone marrow, kidney, spleen and liver and necrosis in renal glomeruli, tongue, gastrointestinal tract and urinary bladder mucosa. Presence of ranavirus in lesions was confirmed by immunohistochemistry. Intracytoplasmic inclusion bodies probably viral were present in the bone marrow and the epithelia of the oral cavity, gastrointestinal tract, renal tubules and urinary bladder. Our work describes a ranaviruswood frog model and provides estimates that can be incorporated into ranavirus disease ecology models.

  13. EUROCARE-4. Survival of cancer patients diagnosed in 1995-1999. Results and commentary.

    PubMed

    Sant, Milena; Allemani, Claudia; Santaquilani, Mariano; Knijn, Arnold; Marchesi, Francesca; Capocaccia, Riccardo

    2009-04-01

    EUROCARE-4 analysed about three million adult cancer cases from 82 cancer registries in 23 European countries, diagnosed in 1995-1999 and followed to December 2003. For each cancer site, the mean European area-weighted observed and relative survival at 1-, 3-, and 5-years by age and sex are presented. Country-specific 1- and 5-year relative survival is also shown, together with 5-year relative survival conditional to surviving 1-year. Within-country variation in survival is analysed for selected cancers. Survival for most solid cancers, whose prognosis depends largely on stage at diagnosis (breast, colorectum, stomach, skin melanoma), was highest in Finland, Sweden, Norway and Iceland, lower in the UK and Denmark, and lowest in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia. France, Switzerland and Italy generally had high survival, slightly below that in the northern countries. There were between-region differences in the survival for haematologic malignancies, possibly due to differences in the availability of effective treatments. Survival of elderly patients was low probably due to advanced stage at diagnosis, comorbidities, difficult access or lack of availability of appropriate care. For all cancers, 5-year survival conditional to surviving 1-year was higher and varied less with region, than the overall relative survival.

  14. Survival of dusky Canada goose goslings in relation to weather and annual nest success

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fondell, T.F.; Miller, David A.; Grand, J.B.; Michael, Anthony R.

    2008-01-01

    The dusky Canada goose (Branta canadensis occidentalis) population has been in long-term decline, likely due to reduced breeding productivity, but gosling survival of this population had not been examined. We studied gosling survival in broods of radiomarked adult females on the western Copper River Delta, Alaska, USA, during 1997-1999 and 2001-2003. Survival estimates for dusky Canada goose goslings to 45 days (x- = 0.32) were below estimates from most previous studies of geese. Daily survival of goslings increased with age and decreased with date of hatch. Precipitation during the first 3 days post-hatch was negatively related to gosling survival and this effect increased with date. Annual estimates of gosling survival were positively correlated with annual estimates of nest success, suggesting overlap in factors affecting nest and gosling survival. Nest success probably also directly affected gosling survival, because survival decreased with hatch date and more broods hatched from renests during years with low nest success. Gosling survival appears to play an important role in limiting current productivity of this population. Management directed at increasing nest success would likely also improve gosling survival. We recommend additional research directed at examining sources of gosling mortality and the link between nest success and gosling survival.

  15. Natal location influences movement and survival of a spatially structured population of snail kites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Hines, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    Despite the accepted importance of the need to better understand how natal location affects movement decisions and survival of animals, robust estimates of movement and survival in relation to the natal location are lacking. Our study focuses on movement and survival related to the natal location of snail kites in Florida and shows that kites, in addition to exhibiting a high level of site tenacity to breeding regions, also exhibit particular attraction to their natal region. More specifically, we found that estimates of movement from post-dispersal regions were greater toward natal regions than toward non-natal regions (differences were significant for three of four regions). We also found that estimates of natal philopatry were greater than estimates of philopatry to non-natal regions (differences were statistically significant for two of four regions). A previous study indicated an effect of natal region on juvenile survival; in this study, we show an effect of natal region on adult survival. Estimates of adult survival varied among kites that were hatched in different regions. Adults experienced mortality rates characteristic of the region occupied at the time when survival was measured, but because there is a greater probability that kites will return to their natal region than to any other regions, their survival was ultimately influenced by their natal region. In most years, kites hatched in southern regions had greater survival probabilities than did kites hatched in northern regions. However, during a multiregional drought, one of the northern regions served as a refuge from drought, and during this perturbation, survival was greater for birds hatched in the north. Our study shows that natal location may be important in influencing the ecological dynamics of kites but also highlights the importance of considering temporal variation in habitat conditions of spatially structured systems when attempting to evaluate the conservation value of habitats.

  16. Probability on a Budget.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ewbank, William A.; Ginther, John L.

    2002-01-01

    Describes how to use common dice numbered 1-6 for simple mathematical situations including probability. Presents a lesson using regular dice and specially marked dice to explore some of the concepts of probability. (KHR)

  17. Annual recapture and survival rates of two non-breeding adult populations of Roseate Terns Stema dougallii captured on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and estimates of their population sizes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Neill, P.; Minton, C.D.T.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hines, J.E.

    2008-01-01

    Capture-recapture data from two disparate breeding populations of Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) captured together as non-breeding individuals from 2002 to 2007 in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Australia were analyzed for both survival rate and recapture rate. The average annual survival rate for the birds from the Asian population (S. d. bangsi) (0.901) is higher than that of the other population of unknown breeding origin (0.819). There was large variability in survival in both populations among years, but the average survival rate of 0.85 is similar to estimates for the same species in North America. The Cormack-Jolly-Seber models used in program MARK to estimate survival rates also produced estimated of recapture probabilities and population sizes. These estimates of population size were 29,000 for S. D. bangsi and 8,300 for the study area and much larger than the documented numbers in the likely breeding areas, suggesting that many breeding sites are currently unknown.

  18. Is quantum probability rational?

    PubMed

    Houston, Alasdair I; Wiesner, Karoline

    2013-06-01

    We concentrate on two aspects of the article by Pothos & Busemeyer (P&B): the relationship between classical and quantum probability and quantum probability as a basis for rational decisions. We argue that the mathematical relationship between classical and quantum probability is not quite what the authors claim. Furthermore, it might be premature to regard quantum probability as the best practical rational scheme for decision making.

  19. Predicted probabilities' relationship to inclusion probabilities.

    PubMed

    Fang, Di; Chong, Jenny; Wilson, Jeffrey R

    2015-05-01

    It has been shown that under a general multiplicative intercept model for risk, case-control (retrospective) data can be analyzed by maximum likelihood as if they had arisen prospectively, up to an unknown multiplicative constant, which depends on the relative sampling fraction. (1) With suitable auxiliary information, retrospective data can also be used to estimate response probabilities. (2) In other words, predictive probabilities obtained without adjustments from retrospective data will likely be different from those obtained from prospective data. We highlighted this using binary data from Medicare to determine the probability of readmission into the hospital within 30 days of discharge, which is particularly timely because Medicare has begun penalizing hospitals for certain readmissions. (3).

  20. Racing To Understand Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van Zoest, Laura R.; Walker, Rebecca K.

    1997-01-01

    Describes a series of lessons designed to supplement textbook instruction of probability by addressing the ideas of "equally likely,""not equally likely," and "fairness," as well as to introduce the difference between theoretical and experimental probability. Presents four lessons using The Wind Racer games to study probability. (ASK)

  1. Dependent Probability Spaces

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris

    2008-01-01

    The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…

  2. Searching with probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Palay, A.J.

    1985-01-01

    This book examines how probability distributions can be used as a knowledge representation technique. It presents a mechanism that can be used to guide a selective search algorithm to solve a variety of tactical chess problems. Topics covered include probabilities and searching the B algorithm and chess probabilities - in practice, examples, results, and future work.

  3. In All Probability, Probability is not All

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Helman, Danny

    2004-01-01

    The national lottery is often portrayed as a game of pure chance with no room for strategy. This misperception seems to stem from the application of probability instead of expectancy considerations, and can be utilized to introduce the statistical concept of expectation.

  4. Lead decreases cell survival, proliferation, and neuronal differentiation of primary cultured adult neural precursor cells through activation of the JNK and p38 MAP kinases.

    PubMed

    Engstrom, Anna; Wang, Hao; Xia, Zhengui

    2015-08-01

    Adult hippocampal neurogenesis is the process whereby adult neural precursor cells (aNPCs) in the subgranular zone (SGZ) of the dentate gyrus (DG) generate adult-born, functional neurons in the hippocampus. This process is modulated by various extracellular and intracellular stimuli, and the adult-born neurons have been implicated in hippocampus-dependent learning and memory. However, studies on how neurotoxic agents affect this process and the underlying mechanisms are limited. The goal of this study was to determine whether lead, a heavy metal, directly impairs critical processes in adult neurogenesis and to characterize the underlying signaling pathways using primary cultured SGZ-aNPCs isolated from adult mice. We report here that lead significantly increases apoptosis and inhibits proliferation in SGZ-aNPCs. In addition, lead significantly impairs spontaneous neuronal differentiation and maturation. Furthermore, we found that activation of the c-Jun NH2-terminal kinase (JNK) and p38 mitogen activated protein (MAP) kinase signaling pathways are important for lead cytotoxicity. Our data suggest that lead can directly act on adult neural stem cells and impair critical processes in adult hippocampal neurogenesis, which may contribute to its neurotoxicity and adverse effects on cognition in adults.

  5. Glutamate Increases In Vitro Survival and Proliferation and Attenuates Oxidative Stress-Induced Cell Death in Adult Spinal Cord-Derived Neural Stem/Progenitor Cells via Non-NMDA Ionotropic Glutamate Receptors.

    PubMed

    Hachem, Laureen D; Mothe, Andrea J; Tator, Charles H

    2016-08-15

    Traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) leads to a cascade of secondary chemical insults, including oxidative stress and glutamate excitotoxicity, which damage host neurons and glia. Transplantation of exogenous neural stem/progenitor cells (NSPCs) has shown promise in enhancing regeneration after SCI, although survival of transplanted cells remains poor. Understanding the response of NSPCs to the chemical mediators of secondary injury is essential in finding therapies to enhance survival. We examined the in vitro effects of glutamate and glutamate receptor agonists on adult rat spinal cord-derived NSPCs. NSPCs isolated from the periventricular region of the adult rat spinal cord were exposed to various concentrations of glutamate for 96 h. We found that glutamate treatment (500 μM) for 96 h significantly increased live cell numbers, reduced cell death, and increased proliferation, but did not significantly alter cell phenotype. Concurrent glutamate treatment (500 μM) in the setting of H2O2 exposure (500 μM) for 10 h increased NSPC survival compared to H2O2 exposure alone. The effects of glutamate on NSPCs were blocked by the α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid (AMPA)/kainate receptor antagonist GYKI-52466, but not by the N-methyl-D-aspartic acid receptor antagonist MK-801 or DL-AP5, or the mGluR3 antagonist LY-341495. Furthermore, treatment of NSPCs with AMPA, kainic acid, or the kainate receptor-specific agonist (RS)-2-amino-3-(3-hydroxy-5-tert-butylisoxazol-4-yl)propanoic acid mimicked the responses seen with glutamate both alone and in the setting of oxidative stress. These findings offer important insights into potential mechanisms to enhance NSPC survival and implicate a potential role for glutamate in promoting NSPC survival and proliferation after traumatic SCI.

  6. Testing for handling bias in survival estimation for black brant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sedinger, J.S.; Lindberg, M.S.; Rexstad, E.A.; Chelgren, N.D.; Ward, D.H.

    1997-01-01

    We used an ultrastructure approach in program SURVIV to test for, and remove, bias in survival estimates for the year following mass banding of female black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). We used relative banding-drive size as the independent variable to control for handling effects in our ultrastructure models, which took the form: S = S0(1 - ??D), where ?? was handling effect and D was the ratio of banding-drive size to the largest banding drive. Brant were divided into 3 classes: goslings, initial captures, and recaptures, based on their state at the time of banding, because we anticipated the potential for heterogeneity in model parameters among classes of brant. Among models examined, for which ?? was not constrained, a model with ?? constant across classes of brant and years, constant survival rates among years for initially captured brant but year-specific survival rates for goslings and recaptures, and year- and class-specific detection probabilities had the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Handling effect, ??, was -0.47 ?? 0.13 SE, -0.14 ?? 0.057, and -0.12 ?? 0.049 for goslings, initially released adults, and recaptured adults. Gosling annual survival in the first year ranged from 0.738 ?? 0.072 for the 1986 cohort to 0.260 ?? 0.025 for the 1991 cohort. Inclusion of winter observations increased estimates of first-year survival rates by an average of 30%, suggesting that permanent emigration had an important influence on apparent survival, especially for later cohorts. We estimated annual survival for initially captured brant as 0.782 ?? 0.013, while that for recaptures varied from 0.726 ?? 0.034 to 0.900 ?? 0.062. Our analyses failed to detect a negative effect of handling on survival of brant, which is consistent with an hypothesis of substantial inherent heterogeneity in post-fledging survival rates, such that individuals most likely to die as a result of handling also have lower inherent survival probabilities.

  7. Probability of satellite collision

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  8. Adult Congenital Heart Association

    MedlinePlus

    ... survivable, manageable, yet in the routine years between infancy and adulthood, sometimes forgettable. The Adult Congenital Heart ... understand the continuum of the disease from its infancy. The Adult Congential Heart Association brings together valuable ...

  9. Systemic Insecticides Reduce Feeding, Survival and Fecundity of Adult Black Vine Weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) on a Variety of Ornamental Nursery Crops

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A series of bioassays were conducted to test the systemic activity of clothianidin, chlorantraniliprole, dinotefuran, and thiamethoxam against adult black vine weevils (Otiorhynchus sulcatus F.) on Taxus, Heuchera, Astilbe, Sedum, Euonymus, and Rhododendron grown in containers. The insecticides wer...

  10. Abstract Models of Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maximov, V. M.

    2001-12-01

    Probability theory presents a mathematical formalization of intuitive ideas of independent events and a probability as a measure of randomness. It is based on axioms 1-5 of A.N. Kolmogorov 1 and their generalizations 2. Different formalized refinements were proposed for such notions as events, independence, random value etc., 2,3, whereas the measure of randomness, i.e. numbers from [0,1], remained unchanged. To be precise we mention some attempts of generalization of the probability theory with negative probabilities 4. From another side the physicists tryed to use the negative and even complex values of probability to explain some paradoxes in quantum mechanics 5,6,7. Only recently, the necessity of formalization of quantum mechanics and their foundations 8 led to the construction of p-adic probabilities 9,10,11, which essentially extended our concept of probability and randomness. Therefore, a natural question arises how to describe algebraic structures whose elements can be used as a measure of randomness. As consequence, a necessity arises to define the types of randomness corresponding to every such algebraic structure. Possibly, this leads to another concept of randomness that has another nature different from combinatorical - metric conception of Kolmogorov. Apparenly, discrepancy of real type of randomness corresponding to some experimental data lead to paradoxes, if we use another model of randomness for data processing 12. Algebraic structure whose elements can be used to estimate some randomness will be called a probability set Φ. Naturally, the elements of Φ are the probabilities.

  11. Demographics and 2008 Run Timing of Adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and Shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) Suckers in Upper Klamath Lake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Hewitt, David A.; Barry, Patrick M.; Scott, Alta; Koller, Justin; Johnson, Mark; Blackwood, Greta

    2009-01-01

    We used capture-recapture data to assess population dynamics of endangered Lost River suckers (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose suckers (Chasmistes brevirostris) in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. The Cormack-Jolly-Seber method was used to estimate apparent survival probabilities, and a temporal symmetry model was used to estimate annual seniority probabilities. Information theoretic modeling was used to assess variation in parameter estimates due to time, gender, and species. In addition, length data were used to detect multiple year-class failures and events of high recruitment into adult spawning populations. Survival of adult Lost River and shortnose suckers varied substantially across years. Relatively high annual mortality was observed for the lakeshore-spawning Lost River sucker subpopulation in 2002 and for the river spawning subpopulation in 2001. Shortnose suckers experienced high mortality in 2001 and 2004. This indicates that high mortality events are not only species specific, but also are specific to subpopulations for Lost River suckers. Seniority probability estimates and length composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into adult sucker populations has been sparse. The overall fitness of Upper Klamath Lake sucker populations are of concern given the low observed survival in some years and the paucity of recent recruitment. During most years, estimates of survival probabilities were lower than seniority probabilities, indicating net losses in adult sucker population abundances. The evidence for decline was more marked for shortnose suckers than for Lost River suckers. Our data indicated that sucker survival for both species, but especially shortnose suckers, was sometimes low in years without any observed fish kills. This indicates that high mortality can occur over a protracted period, resulting in poor annual survival, but will not necessarily be observed in association with a fish kill. A better understanding of the factors

  12. No effect of blood sampling or phytohaemagglutinin injection on postfledging survival in a wild songbird.

    PubMed

    Bowers, Emerson Keith; Sakaluk, Scott K; Thompson, Charles F

    2016-05-01

    The injection of phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) and sampling of blood are widely used in studies of wild vertebrates to assess components of immune and endocrine function and health state and to obtain genetic material. Despite the pervasive use of these techniques in the life sciences, their potential effects on survival are rarely considered. For example, whether injection of the immunogen PHA into body parts critical for locomotion (e.g., the prepatagium, or wing web, in birds) affects survival has not been tested. Here, we test whether injection of PHA into the wing web and blood sampling from nestling house wrens affects their subsequent recruitment and survival as breeding adults. Capture-mark-recapture analysis on a large sample of young (N = 20,152 fledglings from 3959 broods) treated over 10 years revealed that neither PHA injection nor blood sampling affected individual survival and detection probability. Recruitment as a breeder varied among years, but this variation was not attributable to sampling effort, or the percent of all adults identified at the nest during a given year. Variation in the percent of adults identified was primarily attributable to the effect of nest depredation on our ability to capture nesting pairs. Our results indicating lack of an effect of blood sampling and immune stimulation on survival are encouraging, but we recommend further work to assess the potential negative effects of all commonly used techniques on the survival of study subjects in the wild, including the potential costs associated with mounting various immunological responses.

  13. High temperature effects on water loss and survival examining the hardiness of female adults of the spider beetles, Mezium affine and Gibbium aequinoctiale.

    PubMed

    Yoder, Jay A; Chambers, Michael J; Tank, Justin L; Keeney, George D

    2009-01-01

    A remarkable ability to tolerate temperatures as high as 52 degrees C for Mezium affine Boieldieu and 56 degrees C for Gibbium aequinoctiale Boieldieu (Coleoptera: Anobiidae) was discovered as part of a water balance study that was conducted to determine whether desiccation-resistance (xerophilic water balance classification) is linked to survival at high temperature. Characteristics of the heat shock response were an intermediate, reversible level of injury, appearing as though dead; greater recovery from heat shock by G. aequinoctiale (57%) than M. affine (30%) that supplemented higher temperature survival by G. aequinoctiale; and lack of protection generated by conditioning at sublethal temperature. Heatinduced mortality is attributed to an abrupt, accelerated water loss at 50 degrees C for M. affine and 54 degrees C for G. aequinoctiale, not to the species (M. affine) that loses water the slowest and has the lower activation energy, E(a) as a measure of cuticular boundary effectiveness. These temperatures where water loss increases sharply are not critical transition temperatures because Arrhenius analysis causes them to be erased (uninterrupted Boltzmann function) and E(a) fails to change when cuticular lipid from these beetles is removed. Our conclusion is that the temperature thresholds for survival and accelerated water loss closely match, and the key survival element in hot and dry environments contributing to wide distribution of G. aequinoctiale and M. affine derives from rising temperature prompting entry into quiescence and a resistance in cuticular lipid fluidity.

  14. Adult immunization

    PubMed Central

    Mehta, Bharti; Chawla, Sumit; Kumar Dharma, Vijay; Jindal, Harashish; Bhatt, Bhumika

    2014-01-01

    Vaccination is recommended throughout life to prevent vaccine-preventable diseases and their sequel. The primary focus of vaccination programs has historically been directed to childhood immunizations. For adults, chronic diseases have been the primary focus of preventive and medical health care, though there has been increased emphasis on preventing infectious diseases. Adult vaccination coverage, however, remains low for most of the routinely recommended vaccines. Though adults are less susceptible to fall prey to traditional infectious agents, the probability of exposure to infectious agents has increased manifold owing to globalization and increasing travel opportunities both within and across the countries. Thus, there is an urgent need to address the problem of adult immunization. The adult immunization enterprise is more complex, encompassing a wide variety of vaccines and a very diverse target population. There is no coordinated public health infrastructure to support an adult immunization program as there is for children. Moreover, there is little coordination among adult healthcare providers in terms of vaccine provision. Substantial improvement in adult vaccination is needed to reduce the health consequences of vaccine-preventable diseases among adults. Routine assessment of adult patient vaccination needs, recommendation, and offer of needed vaccines for adults should be incorporated into routine clinical care of adults. PMID:24128707

  15. Surviving a gender-variant childhood: the views of transgender adults on the needs of gender-variant children and their parents.

    PubMed

    Riley, Elizabeth Anne; Clemson, Lindy; Sitharthan, Gomathi; Diamond, Milton

    2013-01-01

    Adults with gender-variant childhoods have often lived traumatic lives because of the attitudes and limited understanding that people in their environment had of the concept of gender variance. This study explores the childhoods of transgender adults with the aim to understand their gender-related difficulties as children, in order to identify their needs and the needs of their parents at that time. The authors conducted a semi-structured survey with 110 transgender adults in order to explore their retrospective childhood experiences. Responses were analyzed through content and thematic coding. Their needs most commonly identified as children were for educated authority figures; acceptance and support to discuss their gender variance; freedom of identity expression; validation; and recognition. The needs most commonly allocated to their parents were access to information, education to increase other's awareness, peer support, and access to educated professionals.

  16. Probability with Roulette

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall, Jennings B.

    2007-01-01

    This article describes how roulette can be used to teach basic concepts of probability. Various bets are used to illustrate the computation of expected value. A betting system shows variations in patterns that often appear in random events.

  17. Habitat fragmentation lowers survival of a tropical forest bird.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Gutiérrez, Viviana; Gavin, Thomas A; Dhondt, André A

    2008-06-01

    Population ecology research has long been focused on linking environmental features with the viability of populations. The majority of this work has largely been carried out in temperate systems and, until recently, has examined the effects of habitat fragmentation on survival. In contrast, we looked at the effect of forest fragmentation on apparent survival of individuals of the White-ruffed Manakin (Corapipo altera) in southern Costa Rica. Survival and recapture rates were estimated using mark-recapture analyses, based on capture histories from 1993 to 2006. We sampled four forest patches ranging in size from 0.9 to 25 ha, and four sites in the larger 227-ha Las Cruces Biological Station Forest Reserve (LCBSFR). We found a significant difference in annual adult apparent survival rates for individuals marked and recaptured in forest fragments vs. individuals marked and recaptured in the larger LCBSFR. Contrary to our expectation, survival and recapture probabilities did not differ between male and female manakins. Also, there was no support for the existence of annual variation in survival within each study site. Our results suggest that forest fragmentation is likely having an effect on population dynamics for the White-ruffed Manakin in this landscape. Therefore, populations that appear to be persisting in fragmented landscapes might still be at risk of local extinction, and conservation action for tropical birds should be aimed at identifying and reducing sources of adult mortality. Future studies in fragmentation effects on reproductive success and survival, across broad geographical scales, will be needed before it is possible to achieve a clear understanding of the effects of habitat fragmentation on populations for both tropical and temperate regions. PMID:18536246

  18. Habitat fragmentation lowers survival of a tropical forest bird.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Gutiérrez, Viviana; Gavin, Thomas A; Dhondt, André A

    2008-06-01

    Population ecology research has long been focused on linking environmental features with the viability of populations. The majority of this work has largely been carried out in temperate systems and, until recently, has examined the effects of habitat fragmentation on survival. In contrast, we looked at the effect of forest fragmentation on apparent survival of individuals of the White-ruffed Manakin (Corapipo altera) in southern Costa Rica. Survival and recapture rates were estimated using mark-recapture analyses, based on capture histories from 1993 to 2006. We sampled four forest patches ranging in size from 0.9 to 25 ha, and four sites in the larger 227-ha Las Cruces Biological Station Forest Reserve (LCBSFR). We found a significant difference in annual adult apparent survival rates for individuals marked and recaptured in forest fragments vs. individuals marked and recaptured in the larger LCBSFR. Contrary to our expectation, survival and recapture probabilities did not differ between male and female manakins. Also, there was no support for the existence of annual variation in survival within each study site. Our results suggest that forest fragmentation is likely having an effect on population dynamics for the White-ruffed Manakin in this landscape. Therefore, populations that appear to be persisting in fragmented landscapes might still be at risk of local extinction, and conservation action for tropical birds should be aimed at identifying and reducing sources of adult mortality. Future studies in fragmentation effects on reproductive success and survival, across broad geographical scales, will be needed before it is possible to achieve a clear understanding of the effects of habitat fragmentation on populations for both tropical and temperate regions.

  19. Quantum computing and probability.

    PubMed

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  20. Higher Early Monocyte and Total Lymphocyte Counts Are Associated with Better Overall Survival after Standard Total Body Irradiation, Cyclophosphamide, and Fludarabine Reduced-Intensity Conditioning Double Umbilical Cord Blood Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation in Adults.

    PubMed

    Le Bourgeois, Amandine; Peterlin, Pierre; Guillaume, Thierry; Delaunay, Jacques; Duquesne, Alix; Le Gouill, Steven; Moreau, Philippe; Mohty, Mohamad; Campion, Loïc; Chevallier, Patrice

    2016-08-01

    This single-center retrospective study aimed to report the impact of early hematopoietic and immune recoveries after a standard total body irradiation, cyclophosphamide, and fludarabine (TCF) reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) regimen for double umbilical cord blood (dUCB) allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT) in adults. We analyzed 47 consecutive patients older than 17 years who engrafted after a dUCB TCF allo-SCT performed between January 2006 and April 2013 in our department. Median times for neutrophil and platelet recoveries were 17 (range, 6 to 59) and 37 days (range, 0 to 164), respectively. The 3-year overall (OS) and disease-free survivals, relapse incidence, and nonrelapse mortality were 65.7%, 57.2%, 27.1%, and 19%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, higher day +30 monocyte (≥615/mm(3); hazard ratio [HR], .04; 95% confidence interval [CI], .004 to .36; P < .01) and day +42 lymphocyte (≥395/mm(3); HR, .16; 95% CI, .03 to .78; P = .02) counts were independently associated with better OS. These results suggest that early higher hematopoietic and immune recovery is predictive of survival after dUCB TCF RIC allo-SCT in adults. Factors other than granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, which was used in all cases, favoring expansion of monocytes or lymphocytes, should be tested in the future as part of the UCB transplantation procedure. PMID:27118570

  1. Launch Collision Probability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bollenbacher, Gary; Guptill, James D.

    1999-01-01

    This report analyzes the probability of a launch vehicle colliding with one of the nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the Earth, given that an object on a near-collision course with the launch vehicle has been identified. Knowledge of the probability of collision throughout the launch window can be used to avoid launching at times when the probability of collision is unacceptably high. The analysis in this report assumes that the positions of the orbiting objects and the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time and therefore that any tracked object which comes close to the launch vehicle can be identified. The analysis further assumes that the position uncertainty of the launch vehicle and the approaching space object can be described with position covariance matrices. With these and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution is developed using two approaches. The solution shows that the probability of collision is a function of position uncertainties, the size of the two potentially colliding objects, and the nominal separation distance at the point of closest approach. ne impact of the simplifying assumptions on the accuracy of the final result is assessed and the application of the results to the Cassini mission, launched in October 1997, is described. Other factors that affect the probability of collision are also discussed. Finally, the report offers alternative approaches that can be used to evaluate the probability of collision.

  2. Good Ol' Boys, Mean Girls, and Tyrants: A Phenomenological Study of the Lived Experiences and Survival Strategies of Bullied Women Adult Educators

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sedivy-Benton, Amy; Strohschen, Gabriele; Cavazos, Nora; Boden-McGill, Carrie

    2015-01-01

    Bullying in higher education is an increasingly common phenomenon that negatively affects organizational climate, completed work's quality and quantity, and students' educational experiences. The purpose of this phenomenological study was to investigate the lived experiences of women adult educators who were targets of bullying. Six…

  3. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  4. Survived spondyloptosis of the thoracic spine in the Early Middle Ages (Czech Republic).

    PubMed

    Kalová, K; Drozdová, E; Smrčka, V

    2013-12-01

    At a Slavic site Pohansko near Břeclav (Czech Republic), at the burial ground around the church (9th-10th century) 757 skeletons (208 males, 159 females, 354 sub-adults and 36 undetermined individuals), were excavated. More or less complete vertebral column was preserved in 109 adults. Among those, in the grave number 403, the skeletal remains of an adult male were found with the deformity of the spine probably caused by severe trauma (spondyloptosis). Due to the poor preservation of the caudal part of the spine, we cannot exclude diagnoses including spondylitis tuberculosa and developmental defects of the spine such as the persistence of neurocentral synchondroses, or the retrosomatic cleft. Considering the first possible diagnosis to be the most probable, it would be the first survived case of spondyloptosis identified in the palaeopathological literature. PMID:24083937

  5. The effect of maternal care on child survival: a demographic, genetic, and evolutionary perspective.

    PubMed

    Pavard, S; Sibert, A; Heyer, E

    2007-05-01

    Models of population dynamics generally assume that child survival is independent of maternal survival. However, in humans, the death of a mother compromises her immature children's survival because children require postnatal care. A child's survival therefore depends on her mother's survival in years following her birth. Here, we provide a model incorporating this relationship and providing the number of children surviving until maturity achieved by females at each age. Using estimates of the effect that a mother's death has on her child's survival until maturity, we explore the effect of the model on population dynamics. Compared to a model that includes a uniform child survival probability, our model slightly raises the finite rate of increase lambda and modifies generation time and the stable age structure. We also provide estimates of selection on alleles that change the survival of females. Selection is higher at all adult ages in our model and remains significant after menopause (at ages for which the usual models predict neutrality of such alleles). Finally, the effect of secondary caregivers who compensate maternal care after the death of a mother is also emphasized. We show that allocare (as an alternative to maternal care) can have a major effect on population dynamics and is likely to have played an important role during human evolution.

  6. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin, Volume XV; Appraisal of the Relationship between Tag Detection Efficiency at Bonneville Dam and the Precision of In-River Survival Estimates of Returning PIT-Tagged Chinook Salmon, 2000 Technical Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Perez-Comas, Joes A.; Skalski, John R.

    2000-07-01

    In the advent of the installation of a PIT-tag interrogation system in the Cascades Island fish ladder at Bonneville Dam, this report provides guidance on the anticipated precision of in-river survival estimates for returning adult salmonids, between Bonneville and Lower Granite dams, for various levels of system-wide adult detection probability at Bonneville Dam. Precision was characterized by the standard error of the survival estimates and the coefficient of variation of the survival estimates. The anticipated precision of in-river survival estimates for returning adult salmonids was directly proportional to the number of PIT-tagged smolts released and to the system-wide adult detection efficiency at Bonneville Dam, as well as to the in-river juvenile survival above Lower Granite Dam. Moreover, for a given release size and system-wide adult detection efficiency at Bonneville Dam, higher estuarine and marine survival rates also produced more precise survival estimates. With a system-wide detection probability of P{sub BA} = 1 at Bonneville Dam, the anticipated CVs for in-river survival estimate ranged between 9.4 and 20% with release sizes of 10,000 smolts. Moreover, if the system-wide adult detection efficiency at Bonneville Dam is less than maximum (i.e., P{sub BA} < 1), precision of CV {le} 20% could still be attained. For example, for releases of 10,000 PIT-tagged fish a CV of 20% in the estimates of in-river survival for returning adult salmon could be reach with system-wide detection probabilities of 0.2 {le} P{sub BA} {le} 0.6, depending on the tagging scenario.

  7. Univariate Probability Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leemis, Lawrence M.; Luckett, Daniel J.; Powell, Austin G.; Vermeer, Peter E.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a web-based interactive graphic that can be used as a resource in introductory classes in mathematical statistics. This interactive graphic presents 76 common univariate distributions and gives details on (a) various features of the distribution such as the functional form of the probability density function and cumulative distribution…

  8. Approximating Integrals Using Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.; Caudle, Kyle A.

    2005-01-01

    As part of a discussion on Monte Carlo methods, which outlines how to use probability expectations to approximate the value of a definite integral. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on this technique and then to show several examples using visual basic as a programming tool. It is an interesting method because it combines two branches of…

  9. A Unifying Probability Example.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.

    2002-01-01

    Presents an example from probability and statistics that ties together several topics including the mean and variance of a discrete random variable, the binomial distribution and its particular mean and variance, the sum of independent random variables, the mean and variance of the sum, and the central limit theorem. Uses Excel to illustrate these…

  10. Age-specificity of black-capped chickadee survival rates: Analysis of capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Loery, G.; Pollock, K.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1987-01-01

    The ornithological literature indicates a widespread belief in two generalizations about the age-specificity of avian survival rates: (1) survival rates of young birds for some period following fledging are lower than those of adults, and (2) after reaching adulthood survival rates are constant for birds of all ages. There is a growing body of evidence in support of the first generalization, although little is known about how long the survival difference between young and adults lasts. This latter question can be addressed with capture-recapture or band recovery studies based on birds marked in the winter, but the inability to determine age in many species during winter has prevented the use of standard methods. There is very little evidence supporting the second generalization, and we are in need of methods and actual analyses that address this question. In the present paper we restate the two generalizations as hypotheses and test them using data from a wintering Black-capped Chickadee (Parus atricapillus) population in Connecticut, which has been studied by Loery for 26 yr. We use a cohort-based Jolly-Seber approach, which should be useful in other investigations of this nature. We found strong evidence of lower survival rates in 1st-yr birds than in adults, but could not determine whether this was the result of higher mortality rates, higher emigration rates, or a combination of the two. We also found evidence that survival rates of adult birds were not constant with age but decreased at a rate of ? 3.5%/yr. As adult birds are very faithful to their wintering areas, we believe that almost all this decrease can be attributed to an increase in mortality with age. Simulation results suggest that heterogeneity of capture probabilities could not explain the magnitude of the decrease in survival with age. Age-dependent tag loss is also discussed as an alternative explanation, but is dismissed as very unlikely in this situation. This analysis thus provides some of the

  11. Detection and apparent survival of PIT-tagged stream fish in winter.

    PubMed

    Weber, Christine; Scheuber, Hannes; Nilsson, Christer; Alfredsen, Knut T

    2016-04-01

    Environmental fluctuations exert strong control on behavior, survival, and fitness of stream biota. Technical improvements increasingly allow for tracking the response of large numbers of individuals to environmental fluctuations, for instance, by remote detection of animals equipped with PIT (passive integrated transponder) tags. PIT tags were implanted into 393 juvenile and adult brown trout Salmo trutta L. and European sculpin Cottus gobio L. in a boreal stream subjected to considerable ice formation. With weekly trackings over 6 months, we quantified apparent survival and detection probability in relation to biological, environmental, and methodological factors. Individuals with a higher physical condition in autumn showed a higher apparent survival; this pattern was consistent across all species and age classes. Detection probability decreased with increasing thickness of the surface ice layer; this effect was most pronounced for juvenile trout and benthic-living sculpin, both tagged with smaller-sized tags. Detection probability was reduced in structurally complex habitats. Our study demonstrates that apparent survival and particularly detection probability may show pronounced spatiotemporal variation. In order to compare results from different sampling occasions and sites, a good knowledge of the study site and of the regulating factors is crucial.

  12. Detection and apparent survival of PIT-tagged stream fish in winter.

    PubMed

    Weber, Christine; Scheuber, Hannes; Nilsson, Christer; Alfredsen, Knut T

    2016-04-01

    Environmental fluctuations exert strong control on behavior, survival, and fitness of stream biota. Technical improvements increasingly allow for tracking the response of large numbers of individuals to environmental fluctuations, for instance, by remote detection of animals equipped with PIT (passive integrated transponder) tags. PIT tags were implanted into 393 juvenile and adult brown trout Salmo trutta L. and European sculpin Cottus gobio L. in a boreal stream subjected to considerable ice formation. With weekly trackings over 6 months, we quantified apparent survival and detection probability in relation to biological, environmental, and methodological factors. Individuals with a higher physical condition in autumn showed a higher apparent survival; this pattern was consistent across all species and age classes. Detection probability decreased with increasing thickness of the surface ice layer; this effect was most pronounced for juvenile trout and benthic-living sculpin, both tagged with smaller-sized tags. Detection probability was reduced in structurally complex habitats. Our study demonstrates that apparent survival and particularly detection probability may show pronounced spatiotemporal variation. In order to compare results from different sampling occasions and sites, a good knowledge of the study site and of the regulating factors is crucial. PMID:27066238

  13. Temporal variation of juvenile survival in a long-lived species: the role of parasites and body condition.

    PubMed

    Souchay, Guillaume; Gauthier, Gilles; Pradel, Roger

    2013-09-01

    Studies of population dynamics of long-lived species have generally focused on adult survival because population growth should be most sensitive to this parameter. However, actual variations in population size can often be driven by other demographic parameters, such as juvenile survival, when they show high temporal variability. We used capture-recapture data from a long-term study of a hunted, migratory species, the greater snow goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica), to assess temporal variability in first-year survival and the relative importance of natural and hunting mortality. We also conducted a parasite-removal experiment to determine the effect of internal parasites and body condition on temporal variation in juvenile survival. We found that juvenile survival showed a higher temporal variability than adult survival and that natural mortality was more important than hunting mortality, unlike in adults. Parasite removal increased first-year survival and reduced its annual variability in females only. Body condition at fledging was also positively correlated with first-year survival in treated females. With reduced parasite load, females, which are thought to invest more in their immune system than males according to Bateman's principle, could probably reallocate more energy to growth than males, leading to a higher survival. Treated birds also had a higher survival than control ones during their second year, suggesting a developmental effect that manifested later in life. Our study shows that natural factors such as internal parasites may be a major source of variation in juvenile survival of a long-lived, migratory bird, which has implications for its population dynamics. PMID:23456200

  14. Habitat fragmentation effects on annual survival of the federally protected eastern indigo snake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breininger, D.R.; Mazerolle, M.J.; Bolt, M.R.; Legare, M.L.; Drese, J.H.; Hines, J.E.

    2012-01-01

    The eastern indigo snake (Drymarchon couperi) is a federally listed species, most recently threatened by habitat loss and habitat degradation. In an effort to estimate snake survival, a total of 103 individuals (59 males, 44 females) were followed using radio-tracking from January 1998 to March 2004 in three landscape types that had increasing levels of habitat fragmentation: (1) conservation cores; (2) conservation areas along highways; (3) suburbs. Because of a large number of radio-tracking locations underground for which the state of snakes (i.e. alive or dead) could not be assessed, we employed a multistate approach to model snake apparent survival and encounter probability of live and dead snakes. We predicted that male snakes in suburbs would have the lowest annual survival. We found a transmitter implantation effect on snake encounter probability, as snakes implanted on a given occasion had a lower encounter probability on the next visit compared with snakes not implanted on the previous occasion. Our results indicated that adult eastern indigo snakes have relatively high survival in conservation core areas, but greatly reduced survival in conservation areas along highways and in suburbs. These findings indicate that habitat fragmentation is likely to be the critical factor for species' persistence.

  15. On Probability Domains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

    2010-12-01

    Motivated by IF-probability theory (intuitionistic fuzzy), we study n-component probability domains in which each event represents a body of competing components and the range of a state represents a simplex S n of n-tuples of possible rewards-the sum of the rewards is a number from [0,1]. For n=1 we get fuzzy events, for example a bold algebra, and the corresponding fuzzy probability theory can be developed within the category ID of D-posets (equivalently effect algebras) of fuzzy sets and sequentially continuous D-homomorphisms. For n=2 we get IF-events, i.e., pairs ( μ, ν) of fuzzy sets μ, ν∈[0,1] X such that μ( x)+ ν( x)≤1 for all x∈ X, but we order our pairs (events) coordinatewise. Hence the structure of IF-events (where ( μ 1, ν 1)≤( μ 2, ν 2) whenever μ 1≤ μ 2 and ν 2≤ ν 1) is different and, consequently, the resulting IF-probability theory models a different principle. The category ID is cogenerated by I=[0,1] (objects of ID are subobjects of powers I X ), has nice properties and basic probabilistic notions and constructions are categorical. For example, states are morphisms. We introduce the category S n D cogenerated by Sn=\\{(x1,x2,ldots ,xn)in In;sum_{i=1}nxi≤ 1\\} carrying the coordinatewise partial order, difference, and sequential convergence and we show how basic probability notions can be defined within S n D.

  16. Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

    2015-12-01

    Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

  17. Statistical Survival Analysis of Fish and Wildlife Tagging Studies; SURPH.1 Manual - Analysis of Release-Recapture Data for Survival Studies, 1994 Technical Manual.

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven G.; Skalski, John R.; Schelechte, J. Warren

    1994-12-01

    Program SURPH is the culmination of several years of research to develop a comprehensive computer program to analyze survival studies of fish and wildlife populations. Development of this software was motivated by the advent of the PIT-tag (Passive Integrated Transponder) technology that permits the detection of salmonid smolt as they pass through hydroelectric facilities on the Snake and Columbia Rivers in the Pacific Northwest. Repeated detections of individually tagged smolt and analysis of their capture-histories permits estimates of downriver survival probabilities. Eventual installation of detection facilities at adult fish ladders will also permit estimation of ocean survival and upstream survival of returning salmon using the statistical methods incorporated in SURPH.1. However, the utility of SURPH.1 far exceeds solely the analysis of salmonid tagging studies. Release-recapture and radiotelemetry studies from a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic species have been analyzed using SURPH.1 to estimate discrete time survival probabilities and investigate survival relationships. The interactive computing environment of SURPH.1 was specifically developed to allow researchers to investigate the relationship between survival and capture processes and environmental, experimental and individual-based covariates. Program SURPH.1 represents a significant advancement in the ability of ecologists to investigate the interplay between morphologic, genetic, environmental and anthropogenic factors on the survival of wild species. It is hoped that this better understanding of risk factors affecting survival will lead to greater appreciation of the intricacies of nature and to improvements in the management of wild resources. This technical report is an introduction to SURPH.1 and provides a user guide for both the UNIX and MS-Windows{reg_sign} applications of the SURPH software.

  18. Carbonaceous Survivability on Impact

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bunch, T. E.; Becker, Luann; Morrison, David (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    In order to gain knowledge about the potential contributions of comets and cosmic dust to the origin of life on Earth, we need to explore the survivability of their potential organic compounds on impact and the formation of secondary products that may have arisen from the chaotic events sustained by the carriers as they fell to Earth. We have performed a series of hypervelocity impact experiments using carbon-bearing impactors (diamond, graphite, kerogens, PAH crystals, and Murchison and Nogoya meteorites) into Al plate targets at velocities - 6 km/s. Estimated peak shock pressures probably did not exceed 120 GPa and peak shock temperatures were probably less than 4000 K for times of nano- to microsecs. Nominal crater dia. are less than one mm. The most significant results of these experiments are the preservation of the higher mass PAHs (e. g., pyrene relative to napthalene) and the formation of additional alkylated PAHs. We have also examined the residues of polystyrene projectiles impacted by a microparticle accelerator into targets at velocities up to 15 km/s. This talk will discuss the results of these experiments and their implications with respect to the survival of carbonaceous deliverables to early Earth. The prospects of survivability of organic molecules on "intact" capture of cosmic dust in space via soft: and hard cosmic dust collectors will also be discussed.

  19. Bayesian Probability Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  20. Fractal probability laws.

    PubMed

    Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

    2008-06-01

    We explore six classes of fractal probability laws defined on the positive half-line: Weibull, Frechét, Lévy, hyper Pareto, hyper beta, and hyper shot noise. Each of these classes admits a unique statistical power-law structure, and is uniquely associated with a certain operation of renormalization. All six classes turn out to be one-dimensional projections of underlying Poisson processes which, in turn, are the unique fixed points of Poissonian renormalizations. The first three classes correspond to linear Poissonian renormalizations and are intimately related to extreme value theory (Weibull, Frechét) and to the central limit theorem (Lévy). The other three classes correspond to nonlinear Poissonian renormalizations. Pareto's law--commonly perceived as the "universal fractal probability distribution"--is merely a special case of the hyper Pareto class.

  1. Waste Package Misload Probability

    SciTech Connect

    J.K. Knudsen

    2001-11-20

    The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a.

  2. Effect of Hepatitis C Positivity on Survival in Adult Patients Undergoing Heart Transplantation (from the United Network for Organ Sharing Database).

    PubMed

    Kumar, Sachin; Deo, Salil V; Altarabsheh, Salah E; Dunlay, Shannon M; Sarabu, Nagaraju; Sareyyupoglu, Basar; Elgudin, Yakov; Medalion, Benjamin; ElAmm, Chantal; Ginwalla, Mahazarin; Zacharias, Michael; Benatti, Rodolpho; Oliveira, Guilherme H; Kilic, Ahmet; Fonarow, Gregg C; Park, Soon J

    2016-07-01

    Concerns exist regarding orthotropic heart transplantation in hepatitis C virus (HCV) seropositive recipients. Thus, a national registry was accessed to evaluate early and late outcome in HCV seropositive recipients undergoing heart transplant. Retrospective analysis of the United Network for Organ Sharing registry (1991 to 2014) was performed to evaluate recipient profile and clinical outcome of patients with HCV seropositive (HCV +ve) and seronegative (HCV -ve). Adjusted results of early mortality and late survival were compared between cohorts. From 23,507 patients (mean age 52 years; 75% men), 481 (2%) were HCV +ve (mean age 52 years; 77% men). Annual proportion of HCV +ve recipients was comparable over the study period (range 1.3% to 2.7%; p = 0.2). The HCV +ve cohort had more African-American (22% vs 17%; p = 0.01), previous left ventricular assist device utilization (21% vs 14%; p <0.01) and more hepatitis B core Ag+ve recipients (17% vs 5%; p <0.01). However, both cohorts were comparable in terms of extracorporeal membrane oxygenator usage (p = 0.7), inotropic support (p = 0.2), intraaortic balloon pump (p = 0.7) support, serum creatinine (p = 0.7), and serum bilirubin (p = 0.7). Proportion of status 1A patients was similar (24% HCV + vs 21% HCV -); however, wait time for HCV +ve recipients were longer (mean 23 vs 19 days; p <0.01). Among donor variables, age (p = 0.8), hepatitis B status (p = 0.4), and Center for Diseases Control high-risk status (p = 0.9) were comparable in both cohorts. At a median follow-up of 4 years, 67% patients were alive, 28% died, and 1.1% were retransplanted (3.4% missing). Overall survival was worse in the HCV+ cohort (64.3% vs 72.9% and 43.2% vs 55% at 5 and 10 years; p <0.01), respectively. Late renal (odds ratio [OR] 1.2 [1 to 1.6]; p = 0.02) and liver dysfunction (odds ratio 4.5 [1.2 to 15.7]; p = 0.01) occurs more frequently in HCV +ve recipients. On adjusted analysis, HCV seropositivity is

  3. Regional flood probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Troutman, B.M.; Karlinger, M.R.

    2003-01-01

    The T-year annual maximum flood at a site is defined to be that streamflow, that has probability 1/T of being exceeded in any given year, and for a group of sites the corresponding regional flood probability (RFP) is the probability that at least one site will experience a T-year flood in any given year. The RFP depends on the number of sites of interest and on the spatial correlation of flows among the sites. We present a Monte Carlo method for obtaining the RFP and demonstrate that spatial correlation estimates used in this method may be obtained with rank transformed data and therefore that knowledge of the at-site peak flow distribution is not necessary. We examine the extent to which the estimates depend on specification of a parametric form for the spatial correlation function, which is known to be nonstationary for peak flows. It is shown in a simulation study that use of a stationary correlation function to compute RFPs yields satisfactory estimates for certain nonstationary processes. Application of asymptotic extreme value theory is examined, and a methodology for separating channel network and rainfall effects on RFPs is suggested. A case study is presented using peak flow data from the state of Washington. For 193 sites in the Puget Sound region it is estimated that a 100-year flood will occur on the average every 4,5 years.

  4. Age-dependent survival of island vs. mainland populations of two avian scavengers: delving into migration costs.

    PubMed

    Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; De Pablo, Félix; Donázar, José Antonio

    2015-10-01

    Large terrestrial long-lived birds (including raptors) are typically sedentary on islands, even when they are migratory on the mainland. Density-dependent variation in the age at first breeding has been described as responsible for the long-term persistence of long-lived bird populations on islands. However, sedentary island populations may also benefit from higher survival rates derived from the absence of migration costs, especially for young individuals. Thus, sedentary island populations can mimic a natural experiment to study migration costs. We estimated the age-dependent survival of two sedentary raptors on the island of Menorca (Egyptian vultures Neophron percnopterus and red kites Milvus milvus) and compared these estimates with those reported for other migratory and sedentary populations. In Menorca, Egyptian vultures, but not red kites, showed low levels of human-related mortality resulting in extremely high survival probabilities, probably due to different diet choices and behavioral patterns. Juvenile Egyptian vultures and red kites in the studied population had lower survival probabilities than adults. This difference, however, was smaller than those reported for mainland migrant populations, which showed a lower juvenile survival rate. In fact, between-population comparisons suggested that survival of the young in migrant populations may be triggered by mortality factors in wintering areas. In contrast, adult survival may respond to mortality factors in breeding areas. Our results suggest that raptor species that become sedentary on islands may benefit from higher pre-breeder survival prospects in comparison with their mainland migrant counterparts. This fact, in combination with an earlier age at first reproduction, may facilitate their persistence. PMID:26013875

  5. Age-dependent survival of island vs. mainland populations of two avian scavengers: delving into migration costs.

    PubMed

    Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; De Pablo, Félix; Donázar, José Antonio

    2015-10-01

    Large terrestrial long-lived birds (including raptors) are typically sedentary on islands, even when they are migratory on the mainland. Density-dependent variation in the age at first breeding has been described as responsible for the long-term persistence of long-lived bird populations on islands. However, sedentary island populations may also benefit from higher survival rates derived from the absence of migration costs, especially for young individuals. Thus, sedentary island populations can mimic a natural experiment to study migration costs. We estimated the age-dependent survival of two sedentary raptors on the island of Menorca (Egyptian vultures Neophron percnopterus and red kites Milvus milvus) and compared these estimates with those reported for other migratory and sedentary populations. In Menorca, Egyptian vultures, but not red kites, showed low levels of human-related mortality resulting in extremely high survival probabilities, probably due to different diet choices and behavioral patterns. Juvenile Egyptian vultures and red kites in the studied population had lower survival probabilities than adults. This difference, however, was smaller than those reported for mainland migrant populations, which showed a lower juvenile survival rate. In fact, between-population comparisons suggested that survival of the young in migrant populations may be triggered by mortality factors in wintering areas. In contrast, adult survival may respond to mortality factors in breeding areas. Our results suggest that raptor species that become sedentary on islands may benefit from higher pre-breeder survival prospects in comparison with their mainland migrant counterparts. This fact, in combination with an earlier age at first reproduction, may facilitate their persistence.

  6. Annual survival and site fidelity of Steller's eiders molting along the Alaska Peninsula

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Petersen, M.R.; Dau, C.P.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    2000-01-01

    Populations of Steller's eiders (Polysticta stelleri) molting and wintering along the Alaska Peninsula have declined since the 1960's. We captured and marked a large sample of Steller's eiders molting in 2 lagoons along the Alaska Peninsula between 1975-97. We used mark-recapture analysis techniques to estimate annual survival and movement probabilities within and among lagoons for male and female eiders. Estimates of annual survival (??SE) were 0.899 ?? 0.032 for females and 0.765 ?? 0.044 for males. Both sexes showed high rates of fidelity to specific molting locations (>95%) within lagoons; yet we found no evidence that annual probability of survival differed among groups molting in different locations either within or among lagoons. We found weak evidence that annual survival decreased between the periods 1975-81 and 1991-97. The lower survival of males compared to females is unusual for waterfowl and may result in a female-biased sex ratio. We conclude that a decrease in adult survival may have initiated the long-term population decline. Further, a shortage of males may be limiting reproductive potential.

  7. Annual survival and site fidelity of Stellar's Eiders molting along the Alaska Peninsula

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Petersen, M.R.; Dau, C.P.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    2000-01-01

    Populations of Steller?s eiders (Polysticta stelleri) molting and wintering along the Alaska Peninsula have declined since the 1960's. We captured and marked a large sample of Steller's eiders molting in 2 lagoons along the Alaska Peninsula between 1975-97. We used mark-recapture analysis techniques to estimate annual survival and movement probabilities within and among lagoons for male and female eiders. Estimates of annual survival (?SE) were 0.899 ? 0.032 for females and 0.765 ? 0.044 for males. Both sexes showed high rates of fidelity to specific molting locations (>95%) within lagoons; yet we found no evidence that annual probability of survival differed among groups molting in different locations either within or among lagoons. We found weak evidence that annual survival decreased between the periods 1975-81 and 1991-97. The lower survival of males compared to females is unusual for waterfowl and may result in a female-biased sex ratio. We conclude that a decrease in adult survival may have initiated the long-term population decline. Further, a shortage of males may be limiting reproductive potential.

  8. Population size, survival, and movements of white-cheeked pintails in Eastern Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collazo, J.A.; Bonilla-Martinez, G.

    2001-01-01

    We estimated numbers and survival of White-cheeked Pintails (Anas bahamensis) in eastern Puerto Rico during 1996-1999. We also quantified their movements between Culebra Island and the Humacao Wildlife Refuge, Puerto Rico. Mark-resight population size estimates averaged 1020 pintails during nine, 3-month sampling periods from January 1997 to June 1999. On average, minimum regional counts were 38 % lower than mark-resight estimates (mean = 631). Adult survival was 0.51 ?? 0.09 (SE). This estimate is similar for other anatids of similar size but broader geographic distribution. The probability of pintails surviving and staying in Humacao was hiher (67 %) than for counterparts on Culebra (31 %). The probability of surviving and moving from Culebra to Humacao (41 %) was higher than from Humacao to Culebra (20 %). These findings, and available information on reproduction, indicate that the Humacao Wildlife Refuge refuge has an important role in the regional demography of pintails. Our findings on population numbers and regional survival are encouraging, given concerns about the species' status due to habitat loss and hunting. However, our outlook for the species is tempered by the remaining gaps in the population dynamics of pintails; for examples, survival estimates of broods and fledglings (age 0-1) are needed for a comprehensive status assessment. Until additional data are obtianed, White-cheeked Pintails should continue to be protectd from hunting in Puerto Rico.

  9. Effects of radio marking on prairie falcons: Attachment failures provide insights about survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steenhof, Karen; Bates, Kirk K.; Fuller, Mark R.; Kochert, Michael N.; McKinley, J.O.; Lukacs, Paul M.

    2006-01-01

    From 1999-2002, we attached satellite-received platform transmitter terminals (PTTs) to 40 adult female prairie falcons (Falco mexicanus) on their nesting grounds in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) in southwest Idaho. We used 3 variations of a backpack harness design that had been used previously on raptors. Each radiomarked falcon also received a color leg band with a unique alphanumeric code. We monitored survival of birds using radiotelemetry and searched for marked birds on their nesting grounds during breeding seasons after marking. Because 6 falcons removed their harnesses during the first year, we were able to compare survival rates of birds that shed PTTs with those that retained them. We describe a harness design that failed prematurely as well as designs that proved successful for long-term PTT attachment. We resighted 21 marked individuals on nesting areas 1-5 years after they were radiomarked and documented 13 mortalities of satellite-tracked falcons. We used a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate apparent survival probability based on band resighting and telemetry data. Platform transmitter terminals had no short-term effects on falcons or their nesting success during the nesting season they were marked, but birds that shed their transmitters increased their probability of survival. Estimated annual survival for birds that shed their transmitters was 87% compared to 49% for birds wearing transmitters. We discuss possible reasons for differences in apparent survival rates and offer recommendations for future marking of falcons.

  10. Beyond Survival

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steffenson, Dave

    1975-01-01

    The author argues that environmentalists need to realize that the present ecological crisis is essentially a value crisis, not merely a fight for survival alone. He envisions a complete value change for the human population and advocates the incorporation of value strategies into all environmental education programs immediately. (MA)

  11. Low temperature survival in different life stages of the Iberian slug, Arion lusitanicus.

    PubMed

    Slotsbo, Stine; Hansen, Lars Monrad; Holmstrup, Martin

    2011-02-01

    The slug Arion lusitanicus Mabille (Gastropoda: Pulmonata: Arionidae) is an invasive species which has spread to most parts of Europe. The area of origin is unknown, but A. lusitanicus seems to cope well with the local conditions in the countries to which it has migrated. It spreads rapidly, occurs often in high densities and has become a serious pest in most European countries. Therefore there is an urgent need for better knowledge of the ecophysiology of A. lusitanicus, such as the influence of climatic conditions, in order to develop prognostic models and strategies for novel pest management practises. The aim of our study was to investigate the influence of subzero temperatures in relation to winter survival. A. lusitanicus is shown to be freeze-tolerant in some life stages. Most juveniles and some adult slugs survived being frozen at -1.3°C for 3days, but none of the slugs survived freezing at -3°C. The eggs survived subzero temperatures (down to -2°C) probably by supercooling. Juveniles and adults may also survive in a supercooled state (down to -3°C) but are generally poor supercoolers. Therefore, the winter survival of A. lusitanicus depends to a high degree on migration to habitats protected from low winter temperatures, e.g. under plant litter, buried in the soil or in compost heaps.

  12. Problems in estimating age-specific survival rates from recovery data of birds ringed as young

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; White, Gary C.

    1985-01-01

    (1) The life table model is frequently employed in the analysis of ringer samples of young in bird populations. The basic model is biologically unrealistic and of little use in making inferences concerning age-specific survival probabilities. (2) This model rests on a number of restrictive assumptions, the failure of which causes serious biases. Several important assumptions are not met with real data and the estimators of age-specific survival are not robust enough to these failures. (3) Five major problems in the use of the life table method are reviewed. Examples are provided to illustrate several of the problems involved in using this method in making inferences about survival rates and its age-specific nature. (4) We conclude that this is an invalid procedure and it should not be used. Furthermore, ringing studies involving only young birds are pointless as regards survival estimation because no valid method exists for estimating age-specific or time-specific survival rates from such data. (5) In our view, inferences about age-specific survival rates are possible only if both young and adult (or young, subadult and adult) age classes are ringed each year for k years (k ≥ 2).

  13. Hypertabastic survival model.

    PubMed

    Tabatabai, Mohammad A; Bursac, Zoran; Williams, David K; Singh, Karan P

    2007-10-26

    A new two-parameter probability distribution called hypertabastic is introduced to model the survival or time-to-event data. A simulation study was carried out to evaluate the performance of the hypertabastic distribution in comparison with popular distributions. We then demonstrate the application of the hypertabastic survival model by applying it to data from two motivating studies. The first one demonstrates the proportional hazards version of the model by applying it to a data set from multiple myeloma study. The second one demonstrates an accelerated failure time version of the model by applying it to data from a randomized study of glioma patients who underwent radiotherapy treatment with and without radiosensitizer misonidazole. Based on the results from the simulation study and two applications, the proposed model shows to be a flexible and promising alternative to practitioners in this field.

  14. Doubly robust survival trees.

    PubMed

    Steingrimsson, Jon Arni; Diao, Liqun; Molinaro, Annette M; Strawderman, Robert L

    2016-09-10

    Estimating a patient's mortality risk is important in making treatment decisions. Survival trees are a useful tool and employ recursive partitioning to separate patients into different risk groups. Existing 'loss based' recursive partitioning procedures that would be used in the absence of censoring have previously been extended to the setting of right censored outcomes using inverse probability censoring weighted estimators of loss functions. In this paper, we propose new 'doubly robust' extensions of these loss estimators motivated by semiparametric efficiency theory for missing data that better utilize available data. Simulations and a data analysis demonstrate strong performance of the doubly robust survival trees compared with previously used methods. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:27037609

  15. Endocrine disruptive actions of inhaled benzo(a)pyrene on ovarian function and fetal survival in fisher F-344 adult rats.

    PubMed

    Archibong, Anthony E; Ramesh, Aramandla; Inyang, Frank; Niaz, Mohammad S; Hood, Darryl B; Kopsombut, Prapaporn

    2012-12-01

    This study evaluated the effect of inhaled BaP on female reproductive function. Rats were exposed to 50, or 75 or 100 μg BaP/m(3), 4 h a day for 14 days via inhalation. Plasma E(2), P(4), LH and FSH concentrations were determined. Ovarian BaP metabolism and aryl hydrocarbon hydrolase (AHH) activity at proestrus were determined and fertility evaluations were conducted. Ovulation rate and number of pups/litter were reduced in rats exposed to 100 μg BaP/m(3) compared with other treatment and control groups. Plasma concentrations of E(2), and LH were significantly reduced at proestrus in BaP-exposed versus those of controls whereas those of P(4) were significantly reduced at diestrus I. The activity of AHH in ovarian and liver tissues and concentrations of BaP 7,8-diol and BaP 3,6-dione metabolites increased in an exposure concentration-dependent manner. These data suggest that exposure of rats to BaP prior to mating contributes to reduced ovarian function and fetal survival.

  16. Think Fast, Feel Fine, Live Long: A 29-Year Study of Cognition, Health, and Survival in Middle-Aged and Older Adults.

    PubMed

    Aichele, Stephen; Rabbitt, Patrick; Ghisletta, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    In a 29-year study of 6,203 individuals ranging in age from 41 to 96 years at initial assessment, we evaluated the relative and combined influence of 65 mortality risk factors, which included sociodemographic variables, lifestyle attributes, medical indices, and multiple cognitive abilities. Reductions in mortality risk were most associated with higher self-rated health, female gender, fewer years as a smoker, and smaller decrements in processing speed with age. Thus, two psychological variables-subjective health status and processing speed-were among the top predictors of survival. We suggest that these psychological attributes, unlike risk factors that are more narrowly defined, reflect (and are influenced by) a broad range of health-related behaviors and characteristics. Information about these attributes can be obtained with relatively little effort or cost and-given the tractability of these measures in different cultural contexts-may prove expedient for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of conditions related to increased mortality risk in diverse human populations. PMID:26917212

  17. Linking habitat selection and predation risk to spatial variation in survival.

    PubMed

    DeCesare, Nicholas J; Hebblewhite, Mark; Bradley, Mark; Hervieux, David; Neufeld, Lalenia; Musiani, Marco

    2014-03-01

    A central assumption underlying the study of habitat selection is that selected habitats confer enhanced fitness. Unfortunately, this assumption is rarely tested, and in some systems, gradients of predation risk may more accurately characterize spatial variation in vital rates than gradients described by habitat selection studies. Here, we separately measured spatial patterns of both resource selection and predation risk and tested their relationships with a key demographic trait, adult female survival, for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou Gmelin). We also evaluated whether exposure to gradients in both predation risk and resource selection value was manifested temporally through instantaneous or seasonal effects on survival outcomes. We used Cox proportional hazards spatial survival modelling to assess the relative support for 5 selection- and risk-based definitions of habitat quality, as quantified by woodland caribou adult female survival. These hypotheses included scenarios in which selection ideally mirrored survival, risk entirely drove survival, non-ideal selection correlated with survival but with additive risk effects, an ecological trap with maladaptive selection and a non-spatial effect of annual variation in weather. Indeed, we found positive relationships between the predicted values of a resource selection function (RSF) and survival, yet subsequently incorporating an additional negative effect of predation risk greatly improved models further. This revealed a positive, but non-ideal relationship between selection and survival. Gradients in these covariates were also shown to affect individual survival probability at multiple temporal scales. Exposure to increased predation risk had a relatively instantaneous effect on survival outcomes, whereas variation in habitat suitability predicted by an RSF had both instantaneous and longer-term seasonal effects on survival. Predation risk was an additive source of hazard

  18. Linking habitat selection and predation risk to spatial variation in survival

    PubMed Central

    DeCesare, Nicholas J; Hebblewhite, Mark; Bradley, Mark; Hervieux, David; Neufeld, Lalenia; Musiani, Marco; Mysterud, Atle

    2014-01-01

    1. A central assumption underlying the study of habitat selection is that selected habitats confer enhanced fitness. Unfortunately, this assumption is rarely tested, and in some systems, gradients of predation risk may more accurately characterize spatial variation in vital rates than gradients described by habitat selection studies. 2. Here, we separately measured spatial patterns of both resource selection and predation risk and tested their relationships with a key demographic trait, adult female survival, for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou Gmelin). We also evaluated whether exposure to gradients in both predation risk and resource selection value was manifested temporally through instantaneous or seasonal effects on survival outcomes. 3. We used Cox proportional hazards spatial survival modelling to assess the relative support for 5 selection- and risk-based definitions of habitat quality, as quantified by woodland caribou adult female survival. These hypotheses included scenarios in which selection ideally mirrored survival, risk entirely drove survival, non-ideal selection correlated with survival but with additive risk effects, an ecological trap with maladaptive selection and a non-spatial effect of annual variation in weather. 4. Indeed, we found positive relationships between the predicted values of a resource selection function (RSF) and survival, yet subsequently incorporating an additional negative effect of predation risk greatly improved models further. This revealed a positive, but non-ideal relationship between selection and survival. Gradients in these covariates were also shown to affect individual survival probability at multiple temporal scales. Exposure to increased predation risk had a relatively instantaneous effect on survival outcomes, whereas variation in habitat suitability predicted by an RSF had both instantaneous and longer-term seasonal effects on survival. 5. Predation risk was an additive source

  19. Soil-Applied Imidacloprid Translocates to Ornamental Flowers and Reduces Survival of Adult Coleomegilla maculata, Harmonia axyridis, and Hippodamia convergens Lady Beetles, and Larval Danaus plexippus and Vanessa cardui Butterflies

    PubMed Central

    Krischik, Vera; Rogers, Mary; Gupta, Garima; Varshney, Aruna

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Pest Management (IPM) is a decision making process used to manage pests that relies on many tactics, including cultural and biological control, which are practices that conserve beneficial insects and mites, and when needed, the use of conventional insecticides. However, systemic, soil-applied neonicotinoid insecticides are translocated to pollen and nectar of flowers, often for months, and may reduce survival of flower-feeding beneficial insects. Imidacloprid seed-treated crops (0.05 mg AI (active ingredient) /canola seed and 1.2 mg AI/corn seed) translocate less than 10 ppb to pollen and nectar. However, higher rates of soil-applied imidacloprid are used in nurseries and urban landscapes, such as 300 mg AI/10 L (3 gallon) pot and 69 g AI applied to the soil under a 61 (24 in) cm diam. tree. Translocation of imidacloprid from soil (300 mg AI) to flowers of Asclepias curassavica resulted in 6,030 ppb in 1X and 10,400 ppb in 2X treatments, which are similar to imidacloprid residues found in another plant species we studied. A second imidacloprid soil application 7 months later resulted in 21,000 ppb in 1X and 45,000 ppb in 2X treatments. Consequently, greenhouse/nursery use of imidacloprid applied to flowering plants can result in 793 to 1,368 times higher concentration compared to an imidacloprid seed treatment (7.6 ppb pollen in seed- treated canola), where most research has focused. These higher imidacloprid levels caused significant mortality in both 1X and 2X treatments in 3 lady beetle species, Coleomegilla maculata, Harmonia axyridis, and Hippodamia convergens, but not a fourth species, Coccinella septempunctata. Adult survival were not reduced for monarch, Danaus plexippus and painted lady, Vanessa cardui, butterflies, but larval survival was significantly reduced. The use of the neonicotinoid imidacloprid at greenhouse/nursery rates reduced survival of beneficial insects feeding on pollen and nectar and is incompatible with the principles of IPM

  20. Quality of Survival and Growth in Children and Young Adults in the PNET4 European Controlled Trial of Hyperfractionated Versus Conventional Radiation Therapy for Standard-Risk Medulloblastoma

    SciTech Connect

    Kennedy, Colin; Bull, Kim; Chevignard, Mathilde; Culliford, David; Dörr, Helmuth G.; Doz, François; Kortmann, Rolf-Dieter; Lannering, Birgitta; Massimino, Maura; Navajas Gutiérrez, Aurora; Rutkowski, Stefan; Spoudeas, Helen A.; Calaminus, Gabriele

    2014-02-01

    Purpose: To compare quality of survival in “standard-risk” medulloblastoma after hyperfractionated radiation therapy of the central nervous system with that after standard radiation therapy, combined with a chemotherapy regimen common to both treatment arms, in the PNET4 randomised controlled trial. Methods and Materials: Participants in the PNET4 trial and their parents/caregivers in 7 participating anonymized countries completed standardized questionnaires in their own language on executive function, health status, behavior, health-related quality of life, and medical, educational, employment, and social information. Pre- and postoperative neurologic status and serial heights and weights were also recorded. Results: Data were provided by 151 of 244 eligible survivors (62%) at a median age at assessment of 15.2 years and median interval from diagnosis of 5.8 years. Compared with standard radiation therapy, hyperfractionated radiation therapy was associated with lower (ie, better) z-scores for executive function in all participants (mean intergroup difference 0.48 SDs, 95% confidence interval 0.16-0.81, P=.004), but health status, behavioral difficulties, and health-related quality of life z-scores were similar in the 2 treatment arms. Data on hearing impairment were equivocal. Hyperfractionated radiation therapy was also associated with greater decrement in height z-scores (mean intergroup difference 0.43 SDs, 95% confidence interval 0.10-0.76, P=.011). Conclusions: Hyperfractionated radiation therapy was associated with better executive function and worse growth but without accompanying change in health status, behavior, or quality of life.

  1. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin, Volume XIV; Appraisal of the Relationship between Tag Detection Efficiency at Bonneville Dam and the Precision in Estuarine and Marine Survival Estimates on Returning PIT Tagged Chinook Salmon, 2000 Technical Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Perez-Comas, Jose A.; Skalski, John R.

    2000-07-01

    In the advent of the installation of a PIT-tag interrogation system in the Cascades Island fish ladder at Bonneville Dam, this report provides guidance on the anticipated precision of salmonid estuarine and marine survival estimates, for various levels of system-wide adult detection probability at Bonneville Dam. Precision was characterized by the standard error of the survival estimates and the coefficient of variation of the survival estimates. The anticipated precision of salmonid estuarine and marine survival estimates was directly proportional to the number of PIT-tagged smolts released and to the system-wide adult detection efficiency at Bonneville Dam, as well as to the in-river juvenile survival above Lower Granite Dam. Moreover, for a given release size and system-wide adult detection efficiency, higher estuarine and marine survivals did also produce more precise survival estimates. With a system-wide detection probability of P{sub BA} = 1 at Bonneville Dam, the anticipated CVs for the estuarine and marine survival ranged between 41 and 88% with release sizes of 10,000 smolts. Only with the 55,000 smolts being released from sites close to Lower Granite Dam and under high estuarine and marine survival, could CVs of 20% be attained with system detection efficiencies of less than perfect detection (i.e., P{sub BA} < 1).

  2. Public Attitudes toward Stuttering in Turkey: Probability versus Convenience Sampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ozdemir, R. Sertan; St. Louis, Kenneth O.; Topbas, Seyhun

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: A Turkish translation of the "Public Opinion Survey of Human Attributes-Stuttering" ("POSHA-S") was used to compare probability versus convenience sampling to measure public attitudes toward stuttering. Method: A convenience sample of adults in Eskisehir, Turkey was compared with two replicates of a school-based, probability cluster…

  3. Decision-Making Processes: Sensitivity to Sequentially Experienced Outcome Probabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyer, Ty W.

    2007-01-01

    A computerized sequential event sampling decision-making task was administered to 187 5- to 10-year-olds and adults. Participants made a series of choices between alternatives that differed in win probability (Study 1) or win and loss probability (Study 2). Intuitive and more explicit measures were used. Study 1 revealed that, across ages,…

  4. Effects of individual quality, reproductive success and environmental variability on survival of a long-lived seabird.

    PubMed

    Lescroël, Amélie; Dugger, Katie M; Ballard, Grant; Ainley, David G

    2009-07-01

    1. Heterogeneity in individual quality (i.e. individuals having different performance levels that are consistent throughout life) can drive the demography of iteroparous species, but quality in the context of environmental variability has rarely been evaluated. 2. We investigated the demographic responses of a long-lived seabird, the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae), to contrasting environmental conditions as a function of reproductive success, breeding quality (BQ) and experience. A continuous index of BQ (BQI) was developed to reflect an individual's ability, relative to others, to produce viable offspring. 3. First, we assessed the relative importance of costs of reproduction vs. heterogeneity in quality by comparing survival and reproductive probabilities among deferred, successful and unsuccessful breeders under 'demanding' conditions using multistate capture-mark-recapture modelling. Then, we quantified the influence of BQI on adult survival among experienced breeders vs. the whole study population under both 'normal' and 'demanding' conditions. 4. Higher survival rates were exhibited by successful (74-76%) compared to unsuccessful breeders (64%); the former also more frequently reproduced successfully at year t + 1. 5. From 1997 to 2006, adult survival ranged from 64-79%, with BQI accounting for 91% of variability in the entire study population, but only 17% in experienced breeders. The weakened relationship between BQI and survival in experienced breeders supports the theory that selection during the first reproductive event accounts for a more homogeneous pool of experienced breeders. 6. No significant effect of environmental covariates on survival was evident, suggesting that what appeared to be demanding conditions were within the range that could be buffered by this species. 7. For the first time in seabirds, a quadratic relationship between adult survival and BQI showed that adult survival is shaped by both heterogeneity in quality and reproductive

  5. Survival of radio-implanted drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake) in relation to body size and sex

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hyslop, N.L.; Meyers, J.M.; Cooper, R.J.; Norton, Terry M.

    2009-01-01

    Drymarchon couperi (eastern indigo snake) has experienced population declines across its range primarily as a result of extensive habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation. Conservation efforts for D. couperi have been hindered, in part, because of informational gaps regarding the species, including a lack of data on population ecology and estimates of demographic parameters such as survival. We conducted a 2- year radiotelemetry study of D. couperi on Fort Stewart Military Reservation and adjacent private lands located in southeastern Georgia to assess individual characteristics associated with probability of survival. We used known-fate modeling to estimate survival, and an information-theoretic approach, based on a priori hypotheses, to examine intraspecific differences in survival probabilities relative to individual covariates (sex, size, size standardized by sex, and overwintering location). Annual survival in 2003 and 2004 was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.73-0.97, n = 25) and 0.72 (95% CI = 0.52-0.86; n = 27), respectively. Results indicated that body size, standardized by sex, was the most important covariate determining survival of adult D. couperi, suggesting lower survival for larger individuals within each sex. We are uncertain of the mechanisms underlying this result, but possibilities may include greater resource needs for larger individuals within each sex, necessitating larger or more frequent movements, or a population with older individuals. Our results may also have been influenced by analysis limitations because of sample size, other sources of individual variation, or environmental conditions. ?? 2009 by The Herpetologists' League, Inc.

  6. Emptiness Formation Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crawford, Nicholas; Ng, Stephen; Starr, Shannon

    2016-08-01

    We present rigorous upper and lower bounds on the emptiness formation probability for the ground state of a spin-1/2 Heisenberg XXZ quantum spin system. For a d-dimensional system we find a rate of decay of the order {exp(-c L^{d+1})} where L is the sidelength of the box in which we ask for the emptiness formation event to occur. In the {d=1} case this confirms previous predictions made in the integrable systems community, though our bounds do not achieve the precision predicted by Bethe ansatz calculations. On the other hand, our bounds in the case {d ≥ 2} are new. The main tools we use are reflection positivity and a rigorous path integral expansion, which is a variation on those previously introduced by Toth, Aizenman-Nachtergaele and Ueltschi.

  7. MPTP Impairs Dopamine D1 Receptor-Mediated Survival of Newborn Neurons in Ventral Hippocampus to Cause Depressive-Like Behaviors in Adult Mice

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Tingting; Hong, Juan; Di, Tingting; Chen, Ling

    2016-01-01

    Parkinson’s disease (PD) is characterized by motor symptoms with depression. We evaluated the influence of dopaminergic depletion on hippocampal neurogenesis process to explore mechanisms of depression production. Five consecutive days of 1-Methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) injection in mice (MPTP-mice) reduced dopaminergic fibers in hippocampal dentate gyrus (DG). MPTP-mice exhibited depressive-like behaviors later for 2–3 weeks. BrdU was injected 4 h after last-injection of MPTP. BrdU-positive (BrdU+) cells in dorsal (d-DG) and ventral (v-DG) DG were examined on day 1 (D1), 7 (D7), 14 (D14) and 21 (D21) after BrdU injection. Fewer D7-, D14- and D21-BrdU+ cells or BrdU+/NeuN+ cells, but not D1-BrdU+ cells, were found in v-DG of MPTP-mice than in controls. However, the number of BrdU+ cells in d-DG did not differ between the both. Loss of doublecortin-positive (DCX+) cells was observed in v-DG of MPTP-mice. Protein kinase A (PKA) and Ca2+/cAMP-response element binding protein (CREB) phosphorylation were reduced in v-DG of MPTP-mice, which were reversed by D1-like receptor (D1R) agonist SKF38393, but not D2R agonist quinpirole. The treatment of MPTP-mice with SKF38393 on days 2–7 after BrdU-injection reduced the loss of D7- and D21-BrdU+ cells in v-DG and improved the depressive-like behaviors; these changes were sensitive to PKA inhibitor H89. Moreover, the v-DG injection of SKF38393 in MPTP-mice could reduce the loss of D21-BrdU+ cells and relieve the depressive-like behaviors. In control mice, the blockade of D1R by SCH23390 caused the reduction of D21-BrdU+ cells in v-DG and the depressive-like behaviors. Our results indicate that MPTP-reduced dopaminergic depletion impairs the D1R-mediated early survival of newborn neurons in v-DG, producing depressive-like behaviors. PMID:27790091

  8. People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).

    PubMed

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2016-09-01

    A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various 'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people's conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people's estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or 'direct' probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities.

  9. People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).

    PubMed

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2016-09-01

    A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various 'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people's conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people's estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or 'direct' probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities. PMID:27570097

  10. Negative effects of habitat loss on survival of migrant Warblers in a forest mosaic.

    PubMed

    Zitske, B P; Betts, M G; Diamond, A W

    2011-10-01

    Habitat loss and fragmentation in forested landscapes often negatively affect animal abundance; however, whether these factors also affect fitness is not well known. We hypothesized that observed decreases in bird occurrence and abundance in landscapes with harvested forests are associated with reduced apparent survival of adults. We defined apparent survival as an estimate of survival that accounts for an imperfect resighting probability, but not permanent emigration (i.e., dispersal). We examined the association between spatially extensive habitat loss and apparent survival of males of 2 Neotropical migrant species, Blackburnian Warbler (Dendroica fusca) and Black-Throated Green Warbler (D. virens), over 7 years in the Greater Fundy Ecosystem, New Brunswick, Canada. We estimated apparent survival among and within breeding seasons. We quantified amount of habitat in the context of individual species. In this landscape, boundaries between land-cover types are gradual rather than clearly identifiable and abrupt. Estimated apparent within-season survival of both species decreased as a function of amount of habitat within a 2000-m radius; survival was approximately 12 times (95% CI 3.43-14) greater in landscapes with 85% habitat than in landscapes with 10% habitat. Apparent annual survival also decreased as a function of amount of habitat within a 100-m radius. Over the range of habitat amount, apparent annual survival decreased 15% (95% CI 7-29%) as the amount of habitat decreased. Our results suggest that reduced species occurrence in landscapes with low proportions of habitat is due partly to lower apparent survival at these sites. This mechanism operates both directly (i.e., via effects on mortality or dispersal during breeding) and possibly through indirect effects during the nonbreeding season. Habitat loss was associated not only with a lower number of individuals, but also with lower survival of those individuals.

  11. Hyperprolinemic larvae of the drosophilid fly, Chymomyza costata, survive cryopreservation in liquid nitrogen

    PubMed Central

    Koštál, Vladimír; Zahradníčková, Helena; Šimek, Petr

    2011-01-01

    The larva of the drosophilid fly, Chymomyza costata, is probably the most complex metazoan organism that can survive submergence in liquid nitrogen (-196 °C) in a fully hydrated state. We examined the associations between the physiological and biochemical parameters of differently acclimated larvae and their freeze tolerance. Entering diapause is an essential and sufficient prerequisite for attaining high levels of survival in liquid nitrogen (23% survival to adult stage), although cold acclimation further improves this capacity (62% survival). Profiling of 61 different metabolites identified proline as a prominent compound whose concentration increased from 20 to 147 mM during diapause transition and subsequent cold acclimation. This study provides direct evidence for the essential role of proline in high freeze tolerance. We increased the levels of proline in the larval tissues by feeding larvae proline-augmented diets and found that this simple treatment dramatically improved their freeze tolerance. Cell and tissue survival following exposure to liquid nitrogen was evident in proline-fed nondiapause larvae, and survival to adult stage increased from 0% to 36% in proline-fed diapause-destined larvae. A significant statistical correlation was found between the whole-body concentration of proline, either natural or artificial, and survival to the adult stage in liquid nitrogen for diapause larvae. Differential scanning calorimetry analysis suggested that high proline levels, in combination with a relatively low content of osmotically active water and freeze dehydration, increased the propensity of the remaining unfrozen water to undergo a glass-like transition (vitrification) and thus facilitated the prevention of cryoinjury. PMID:21788482

  12. Long-term maintenance combination chemotherapy with OPEC/MPEC (vincristine or methotrexate, prednisolone, etoposide and cyclophosphamide) or with daily oral etoposide and prednisolone can improve survival and quality of life in adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Matsushita, K; Matsumoto, T; Ohtsubo, H; Fujiwara, H; Imamura, N; Hidaka, S; Kukita, T; Tei, C; Matsumoto, M; Arima, N

    1999-12-01

    Acute leukemia and lymphoma varieties of adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (ATL) usually carry a poor prognosis. While etoposide is generally useful for treating ATL, especially as a daily oral maintenance regimen, etoposide has not proven effective in severe types of ATL efficient in some patients. Of 87 ATL patients whom we have treated, 51 had acute leukemia, 22 lymphoma and 14 progressive chronic leukemia. Seventy-nine patients were treated with a long term maintenance combination protocol, OPEC/MPEC (weekly doses of vincristine, 0.7 mg/m2 or methotrexate, 14 mg/m2; prednisolone, 20 mg/m2; etoposide, 70 mg/m2 and cyclophosphamide, 200 mg/m2). The other 8 patients, 3 with acute leukemia, 2 with lymphoma and 3 with progressive chronic leukemia, were treated with daily oral administration of 25 mg of etoposide and 10 mg of prednisolone (DOEP). The dose administered was modified in individual cases to maintain the granulocyte count and reduce the number of ATL cells. Considering both protocols, a complete response and a partial response were achieved in 31.0% and 58.6% patients, respectively. Median survival times (MST) of all patients and, acute leukemia, lymphoma and progressive chronic leukemia types were 7.5, 6.7, 9.6 and 12.4 months, respectively. Respective MST of patients treated with OPEC/MPEC or DOEP protocols were 7.1 and 18.0 months. Relatively normal WBC counts, lower lactate dehydrogenase concentration and normal calcium concentration, limited numbers of anatomic sites involved, good performance status and good response to chemotherapy were significantly associated with long survival time. Drug toxicity was not apparent, and about half of patients were treated in an outpatient setting. PMID:10613451

  13. Probability distributions for magnetotellurics

    SciTech Connect

    Stodt, John A.

    1982-11-01

    Estimates of the magnetotelluric transfer functions can be viewed as ratios of two complex random variables. It is assumed that the numerator and denominator are governed approximately by a joint complex normal distribution. Under this assumption, probability distributions are obtained for the magnitude, squared magnitude, logarithm of the squared magnitude, and the phase of the estimates. Normal approximations to the distributions are obtained by calculating mean values and variances from error propagation, and the distributions are plotted with their normal approximations for different percentage errors in the numerator and denominator of the estimates, ranging from 10% to 75%. The distribution of the phase is approximated well by a normal distribution for the range of errors considered, while the distribution of the logarithm of the squared magnitude is approximated by a normal distribution for a much larger range of errors than is the distribution of the squared magnitude. The distribution of the squared magnitude is most sensitive to the presence of noise in the denominator of the estimate, in which case the true distribution deviates significantly from normal behavior as the percentage errors exceed 10%. In contrast, the normal approximation to the distribution of the logarithm of the magnitude is useful for errors as large as 75%.

  14. Catastrophic reproductive failure, terrestrial survival, and persistence of the marbled salamander.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Barbara E; Scott, David E; Gibbons, J Whitfield

    2006-06-01

    Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander (Ambystoma opacum) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (< 1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander (A. cingulatum). PMID:16909572

  15. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  16. Decision-making processes: sensitivity to sequentially experienced outcome probabilities.

    PubMed

    Boyer, Ty W

    2007-05-01

    A computerized sequential event sampling decision-making task was administered to 187 5- to 10-year-olds and adults Participants made a series of choices between alternatives that differed in win probability (Study 1) or win and loss probability (Study 2). Intuitive and more explicit measures were used. Study 1 revealed that, across ages, participants demonstrated intuitive sensitivity to probability; however, adult participants evidenced greater sensitivity than did children, and younger children failed to demonstrate more explicit understanding of probability. Study 2 also revealed that children were intuitively sensitive to probability; however, the inclusion of loss had limited impact on decision processes. These findings and their relevance to cognitive developmental theory are discussed.

  17. Age-specific survival and philopatry in three species of European ducks: a long-term study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Blums, P.; Mednis, A.; Bauga, I.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1996-01-01

    Capture-recapture and band recovery models were used to estimate age-specific survival probabilities for female Northern Shovelers (Anas clypeata), Common Pochards (Aythya ferina), and Tufted Ducks (Aythya.fuligula) at Engure Marsh, Latvia, in 1964-1993. We banded more than 65,100 day-old ducklings of both sexes and captured 10,211 incubating females (3,713 new bandings and 6,498 recaptures). We developed a set of 3-age capture-recapture models to estimate annual survival rates for female ducklings, yearlings (SY), and adults (ASY) using programs SURGE and SURVIV and selected parsimonious models using a method developed bv Akaike (1973). Survival rates of SY and ASY females were highest-for Tufted Ducks intermediate for Common Pochards, and lowest for Northern Shovelers. Survival rates of SY and ASY females varied in parallel for shovelers and pochards. We believe that much of the difference in survival estimates between SY and ASY birds was caused by mortality rather than permanent emigration. Estimates of day-old duckling survival, reflecting both mortality and permanent emigration, were 0.12 for shoveler, 0.06 for pochard, and 0.03 for Tufted Duck. For all species, duckling survival varied over years, but the pattern of variation was not similar to that of the other age classes. Estimates of survival using band recovery data for SY + ASY female pochards and Tufted Ducks were similar to the capture-recapturee stimates, suggestingt hat surviving females returned to the breeding marsh with probabilities approaching 1.

  18. The Probability of Causal Conditionals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Over, David E.; Hadjichristidis, Constantinos; Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.; Handley, Simon J.; Sloman, Steven A.

    2007-01-01

    Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional probability hypothesis: that the subjective probability of a natural language conditional, P(if p then q), is the conditional subjective probability, P(q [such that] p). We report three experiments on…

  19. Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

    PubMed

    Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

    2012-03-01

    1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States.

  20. Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

    PubMed

    Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

    2012-03-01

    1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States. PMID:22010811

  1. Survival of Children With Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Siffel, Csaba; Riehle-Colarusso, Tiffany; Oster, Matthew E.; Correa, Adolfo

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To examine the survival of infants with hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) and potential influence of demographic and clinical characteristics on survival using population-based data. METHODS Infants with nonsyndromic HLHS (n = 212) born between 1979 and 2005 were identified through the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program. Vital status was ascertained through 2009 based on linkage with vital records. We estimated Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities stratified by select demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS The overall survival probability to 2009 was 24% and significantly improved over time: from 0% in 1979–1984 to 42% in 1999–2005. Survival probability was 66% during the first week, 27% during the first year of life, and 24% during the first 10 years. Survival of very low and low birth weight or preterm infants and those born in high-poverty neighborhoods was significantly poorer. For children with information on surgical intervention (n = 88), the overall survival was 52%, and preterm infants had significantly poorer survival (31%) compared with term infants (56%). For children who survived to 1 year of age, long-term survival was ~90%. CONCLUSIONS Survival to adolescence of children with nonsyndromic HLHS born in metropolitan Atlanta has significantly improved in recent years, with those born full term, with normal birth weight, or in a low-poverty neighborhood having a higher survival probability. Survival beyond infancy to adolescence is high. A better understanding of the growing population of survivors with HLHS is needed to inform resource planning. PMID:26391936

  2. Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

  3. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  4. Age-specific survival of tundra swans on the lower Alaska Peninsula

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meixell, Brandt W.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Conn, Paul B.; Dau, Christian P.; Sarvis, John E.; Sowl, Kristine M.

    2013-01-01

    The population of Tundra Swans (Cygnus columbianus columbianus) breeding on the lower Alaska Peninsula represents the southern extremity of the species' range and is uniquely nonmigratory. We used data on recaptures, resightings, and recoveries of neck-collared Tundra Swans on the lower Alaska Peninsula to estimate collar loss, annual apparent survival, and other demographic parameters for the years 1978–1989. Annual collar loss was greater for adult males fitted with either the thinner collar type (0.34) or the thicker collar type (0.15) than for other age/sex classes (thinner: 0.10, thicker: 0.04). The apparent mean probability of survival of adults (0.61) was higher than that of immatures (0.41) and for both age classes varied considerably by year (adult range: 0.44–0.95, immature range: 0.25–0.90). To assess effects of permanent emigration by age and breeding class, we analyzed post hoc the encounter histories of swans known to breed in our study area. The apparent mean survival of known breeders (0.65) was generally higher than that of the entire marked sample but still varied considerably by year (range 0.26–1.00) and indicated that permanent emigration of breeding swans was likely. We suggest that reductions in apparent survival probability were influenced primarily by high and variable rates of permanent emigration and that immigration by swans from elsewhere may be important in sustaining a breeding population at and near Izembek National Wildlife Refuge.

  5. Dispersion as a Survival Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junior, Valdivino Vargas; Machado, Fábio Prates; Roldán-Correa, Alejandro

    2016-08-01

    We consider stochastic growth models to represent population subject to catastrophes. We analyze the subject from different set ups considering or not spatial restrictions, whether dispersion is a good strategy to increase the population viability. We find out it strongly depends on the effect of a catastrophic event, the spatial constraints of the environment and the probability that each exposed individual survives when a disaster strikes.

  6. Annual survival of Snail Kites in Florida: Radio telemetry versus capture-resighting data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bennetts, R.E.; Dreitz, V.J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    1999-01-01

    We estimated annual survival of Snail Kites (Rostrhamus sociabilis) in Florida using the Kaplan-Meier estimator with data from 271 radio-tagged birds over a three-year period and capture-recapture (resighting) models with data from 1,319 banded birds over a six-year period. We tested the hypothesis that survival differed among three age classes using both data sources. We tested additional hypotheses about spatial and temporal variation using a combination of data from radio telemetry and single- and multistrata capture-recapture models. Results from these data sets were similar in their indications of the sources of variation in survival, but they differed in some parameter estimates. Both data sources indicated that survival was higher for adults than for juveniles, but they did not support delineation of a subadult age class. Our data also indicated that survival differed among years and regions for juveniles but not for adults. Estimates of juvenile survival using radio telemetry data were higher than estimates using capture-recapture models for two of three years (1992 and 1993). Ancillary evidence based on censored birds indicated that some mortality of radio-tagged juveniles went undetected during those years, resulting in biased estimates. Thus, we have greater confidence in our estimates of juvenile survival using capture-recapture models. Precision of estimates reflected the number of parameters estimated and was surprisingly similar between radio telemetry and single-stratum capture-recapture models, given the substantial differences in sample sizes. Not having to estimate resighting probability likely offsets, to some degree, the smaller sample sizes from our radio telemetry data. Precision of capture-recapture models was lower using multistrata models where region-specific parameters were estimated than using single-stratum models, where spatial variation in parameters was not taken into account.

  7. PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

  8. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  9. Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  10. The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

    2004-01-01

    In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are <1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

  11. Quantum correlations in terms of neutrino oscillation probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alok, Ashutosh Kumar; Banerjee, Subhashish; Uma Sankar, S.

    2016-08-01

    Neutrino oscillations provide evidence for the mode entanglement of neutrino mass eigenstates in a given flavour eigenstate. Given this mode entanglement, it is pertinent to consider the relation between the oscillation probabilities and other quantum correlations. In this work, we show that all the well-known quantum correlations, such as the Bell's inequality, are directly related to the neutrino oscillation probabilities. The results of the neutrino oscillation experiments, which measure the neutrino survival probability to be less than unity, imply Bell's inequality violation.

  12. Nestling telomere shortening, but not telomere length, reflects developmental stress and predicts survival in wild birds.

    PubMed

    Boonekamp, Jelle J; Mulder, G A; Salomons, H Martijn; Dijkstra, Cor; Verhulst, Simon

    2014-06-22

    Developmental stressors often have long-term fitness consequences, but linking offspring traits to fitness prospects has remained a challenge. Telomere length predicts mortality in adult birds, and may provide a link between developmental conditions and fitness prospects. Here, we examine the effects of manipulated brood size on growth, telomere dynamics and post-fledging survival in free-living jackdaws. Nestlings in enlarged broods achieved lower mass and lost 21% more telomere repeats relative to nestlings in reduced broods, showing that developmental stress accelerates telomere shortening. Adult telomere length was positively correlated with their telomere length as nestling (r = 0.83). Thus, an advantage of long telomeres in nestlings is carried through to adulthood. Nestling telomere shortening predicted post-fledging survival and recruitment independent of manipulation and fledgling mass. This effect was strong, with a threefold difference in recruitment probability over the telomere shortening range. By contrast, absolute telomere length was neither affected by brood size manipulation nor related to survival. We conclude that telomere loss, but not absolute telomere length, links developmental conditions to subsequent survival and suggest that telomere shortening may provide a key to unravelling the physiological causes of developmental effects on fitness.

  13. Probability Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newton, Roger G.

    1980-01-01

    This paper draws attention to the frequency meaning of the probability concept and its implications for quantum mechanics. It emphasizes that the very meaning of probability implies the ensemble interpretation of both pure and mixed states. As a result some of the "paradoxical" aspects of quantum mechanics lose their counterintuitive character.…

  14. The Probabilities of Conditionals Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Douven, Igor; Verbrugge, Sara

    2013-01-01

    According to what is now commonly referred to as "the Equation" in the literature on indicative conditionals, the probability of any indicative conditional equals the probability of its consequent of the conditional given the antecedent of the conditional. Philosophers widely agree in their assessment that the triviality arguments of…

  15. Minimizing the probable maximum flood

    SciTech Connect

    Woodbury, M.S.; Pansic, N. ); Eberlein, D.T. )

    1994-06-01

    This article examines Wisconsin Electric Power Company's efforts to determine an economical way to comply with Federal Energy Regulatory Commission requirements at two hydroelectric developments on the Michigamme River. Their efforts included refinement of the area's probable maximum flood model based, in part, on a newly developed probable maximum precipitation estimate.

  16. Juvenile survival in a tropical population of roseate terns: Interannual variation and effect of tick parasitism

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monticelli, D.; Ramos, J.A.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Spendelow, J.A.

    2008-01-01

    Many demographic studies on long-lived seabirds have focused on the estimation of adult survival, but much less is known about survival during the early years of life, especially in tropical species. We report analyses of a capture?recapture dataset of 685 roseate terns ringed as fledglings and adults between 1998 and 2005 on Aride Island, Seychelles, and recaptured/resighted at the same colony site over a 5 yr (2002 to 2006) period. A multistate model was used to estimate survival for different age classes, including juvenile (first-year) birds returning as non-breeding prospectors. The effect of infestation by parasites (ticks) on survival was also examined. Overall, the estimated return of first-year individuals to the natal colony was very variable, ranging from 2 to 22%. Conditioned on survival, the probability of returning from Age 2 yr onwards increased to 70%. Survival rates were best modeled as time-specific, with estimates varying from 0.02 to 1.00 (mean 0.69) in first-year birds with a marked negative effect of tick infestation. In older birds (minimum age of 2 yr), the annual estimates fell between 0.69 and 0.86 (mean 0.77). Using a components of variance approach for estimation of year-to-year variation, we found high temporal variability for first-year individuals (coefficient of variation [CV] = 65%) compared to much less variation in the survival rate of older birds (CV = 9%). These findings agree with the life-history prediction that demographic rates of juveniles are usually lower and more variable than those of older individuals. Our results are also consistent with the predicted negative effect of tick parasitism on juvenile survival. Compared with data from other roseate tern populations, survival over the first 2 yr (Age 0 to 2 yr) was 18 to 40% higher in this study, suggesting that a high `young? survival rate may be an important demographic trait in this tropical population to compensate for the low annual reproductive success. Our data show

  17. Juvenile survival in a tropical population of roseate terns: Interannual variation and effect of tick parasitism

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monticelli, D.; Ramos, J.A.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Spendelow, J.A.

    2008-01-01

    Many demographic studies on long-lived seabirds have focused on the estimation of adult survival, but much less is known about survival during the early years of life, especially in tropical species. We report analyses of a capture-recapture dataset of 685 roseate terns ringed as fledglings and adults between 1998 and 2005 on Aride Island, Seychelles, and recaptured/resighted at the same colony site over a 5 yr (2002 to 2006) period. A multistate model was used to estimate survival for different age classes, including juvenile (first-year) birds returning as non-breeding prospectors. The effect of infestation by parasites (ticks) on survival was also examined. Overall, the estimated return of first-year individuals to the natal colony was very variable, ranging from 2 to 22%. Conditioned on survival, the probability of returning from Age 2 yr onwards increased to 70%. Survival rates were best modeled as time-specific, with estimates varying from 0.02 to 1.00 (mean 0.69) in first-year birds with a marked negative effect of tick infestation. In older birds (minimum age of 2 yr), the annual estimates fell between 0.69 and 0.86 (mean 0.77). Using a components of variance approach for estimation of year-to-year variation, we found high temporal variability for first-year individuals (coefficient of variation [CV] = 65%) compared to much less variation in the survival rate of older birds (CV = 9 %). These findings agree with the life-history prediction that demographic rates of juveniles are usually lower and more variable than those of older individuals. Our results are also consistent with the predicted negative effect of tick parasitism on juvenile survival. Compared with data from other roseate tern populations, survival over the first 2 yr (Age 0 to 2 yr) was 18 to 40% higher in this study, suggesting that a high 'young' survival rate may be an important demographic trait in this tropical population to compensate for the low annual reproductive success. Our data

  18. Juvenile survival in a tropical population of roseate terns: Interannual variation and effect of tick parasitism

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monticelli, David; Ramos, Jaime A.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.

    2008-01-01

    Many demographic studies on long-lived seabirds have focused on the estimation of adult survival, but much less is known about survival during the early years of life, especially in tropical species. We report analyses of a capture–recapture dataset of 685 roseate terns ringed as fledglings and adults between 1998 and 2005 on Aride Island, Seychelles, and recaptured/resighted at the same colony site over a 5 yr (2002 to 2006) period. A multistate model was used to estimate survival for different age classes, including juvenile (first-year) birds returning as non-breeding prospectors. The effect of infestation by parasites (ticks) on survival was also examined. Overall, the estimated return of first-year individuals to the natal colony was very variable, ranging from 2 to 22%. Conditioned on survival, the probability of returning from Age 2 yr onwards increased to 70%. Survival rates were best modeled as time-specific, with estimates varying from 0.02 to 1.00 (mean 0.69) in first-year birds with a marked negative effect of tick infestation. In older birds (minimum age of 2 yr), the annual estimates fell between 0.69 and 0.86 (mean 0.77). Using a components of variance approach for estimation of year-to-year variation, we found high temporal variability for first-year individuals (coefficient of variation [CV] = 65%) compared to much less variation in the survival rate of older birds (CV = 9%). These findings agree with the life-history prediction that demographic rates of juveniles are usually lower and more variable than those of older individuals. Our results are also consistent with the predicted negative effect of tick parasitism on juvenile survival. Compared with data from other roseate tern populations, survival over the first 2 yr (Age 0 to 2 yr) was 18 to 40% higher in this study, suggesting that a high ‘young’ survival rate may be an important demographic trait in this tropical population to compensate for the low annual reproductive success. Our

  19. Holographic probabilities in eternal inflation.

    PubMed

    Bousso, Raphael

    2006-11-10

    In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.

  20. Social class and survival on the S.S. Titanic.

    PubMed

    Hall, W

    1986-01-01

    Passengers' chances of surviving the sinking of the S.S. Titanic were related to their sex and their social class: females were more likely to survive than males, and the chances of survival declined with social class as measured by the class in which the passenger travelled. The probable reasons for these differences in rates of survival are discussed as are the reasons accepted by the Mersey Committee of Inquiry into the sinking.

  1. Survival of cackling Canada geese, 1982-1988

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Raveling, D.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Zezulak, D.S.; Silveira, J.G.; Johnson, J.C.; Aldrich, T.W.; Weldon, J.A.

    1992-01-01

    We estimated seasonal and annual survival rates of cackling Canada geese (Branta canadensis minima ) for the period 1982-1989 to identify periods of high mortality and assess effects of harvest management decisions. We tested hypotheses about age- and sex-specific variation in survival, seasonal variation in survival rates, and variation in survival between years in which hunting seasons were open and closed. Geese were marked with individually identifiable neckbands and observed from autumn through spring. We used these data to estimate survival rates for 3-month periods in early (EW) and late (LW) winter and a 6-month period in summer (SU). Mean annual survival rates of immature females were lower than those of adults over the entire study. Survival rates of immature males were lower than those of adults during the 2 years with sport hunting seasons. We found no evidence of sex-specific differences in seasonal or annual survival rates of immature geese.

  2. Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2015-01-01

    This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

  3. Multiple tumours in survival estimates.

    PubMed

    Rosso, Stefano; De Angelis, Roberta; Ciccolallo, Laura; Carrani, Eugenio; Soerjomataram, Isabelle; Grande, Enrico; Zigon, Giulia; Brenner, Hermann

    2009-04-01

    In international comparisons of cancer registry based survival it is common practice to restrict the analysis to first primary tumours and exclude multiple cancers. The probability of correctly detecting subsequent cancers depends on the registry's running time, which results in different proportions of excluded patients and may lead to biased comparisons. We evaluated the impact on the age-standardised relative survival estimates of also including multiple primary tumours. Data from 2,919,023 malignant cancers from 69 European cancer registries participating in the EUROCARE-4 collaborative study were used. A total of 183,683 multiple primary tumours were found, with an overall proportion of 6.3% over all the considered cancers, ranging from 0.4% (Naples, Italy) to 12.9% (Iceland). The proportion of multiple tumours varied greatly by type of tumour, being higher for those with high incidence and long survival (breast, prostate and colon-rectum). Five-year relative survival was lower when including patients with multiple cancers. For all cancers combined the average difference was -0.4 percentage points in women and -0.7 percentage points in men, and was greater for older registries. Inclusion of multiple tumours led to lower survival in 44 out of 45 cancer sites analysed, with the greatest differences found for larynx (-1.9%), oropharynx (-1.5%), and penis (-1.3%). Including multiple primary tumours in survival estimates for international comparison is advisable because it reduces the bias due to different observation periods, age, registration quality and completeness of registration. The general effect of inclusion is to reduce survival estimates by a variable amount depending on the proportion of multiple primaries and cancer site.

  4. Survival of male Tengmalm's owls increases with cover of old forest in their territory.

    PubMed

    Hakkarainen, Harri; Korpimäki, Erkki; Laaksonen, Toni; Nikula, Ari; Suorsa, Petri

    2008-03-01

    The loss and fragmentation of forest habitats have been considered to pose a worldwide threat to the viability of forest-dwelling animals, especially to species that occupy old forests. We investigated whether the annual survival of sedentary male Tengmalm's owls Aegolius funereus was associated with the cover of old coniferous forests in Finland. Survival and recapture probabilities varied annually with density changes in populations of the main prey (Microtus voles). When this variation was controlled for, and relationships between survival and proportions of the three different forest age classes (old-growth, middle-aged, and young) were modeled separately, the old-growth model was the most parsimonious. Survival increased with the cover of old forest, although the extent of old forest within owl territories was relatively small (mean approximately 12%, range 2-37%). This association, however, varied among years and appeared especially in years of increasing vole abundance. At such times, old forests may sustain high populations of bank voles Clethrionomys glareolus, shrews and small passerines. In addition, old forests may serve as refuges against large avian predator species, such as Ural owls Strix uralensis and goshawks Accipiter gentilis. Our results suggest that changes in habitat quality created by agriculture and forestry may have the potential to reduce adult survival, an essential component of fitness and population viability. PMID:18080142

  5. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    PubMed

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction.

  6. Dinosaurs, Dinosaur Eggs, and Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Teppo, Anne R.; Hodgson, Ted

    2001-01-01

    Outlines several recommendations for teaching probability in the secondary school. Offers an activity that employs simulation by hand and using a programmable calculator in which geometry, analytical geometry, and discrete mathematics are explored. (KHR)

  7. The Probabilities of Unique Events

    PubMed Central

    Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Phil

    2012-01-01

    Many theorists argue that the probabilities of unique events, even real possibilities such as President Obama's re-election, are meaningless. As a consequence, psychologists have seldom investigated them. We propose a new theory (implemented in a computer program) in which such estimates depend on an intuitive non-numerical system capable only of simple procedures, and a deliberative system that maps intuitions into numbers. The theory predicts that estimates of the probabilities of conjunctions should often tend to split the difference between the probabilities of the two conjuncts. We report two experiments showing that individuals commit such violations of the probability calculus, and corroborating other predictions of the theory, e.g., individuals err in the same way even when they make non-numerical verbal estimates, such as that an event is highly improbable. PMID:23056224

  8. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    SciTech Connect

    Acacio de Barros, J.

    2012-12-18

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  9. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, J. Acacio

    2012-12-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  10. Persistence with Chytridiomycosis does not assure survival of direct-developing frogs.

    PubMed

    Longo, Ana V; Burrowes, Patricia A

    2010-06-01

    The chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has been linked to extinction and decline of numerous amphibians. We studied the population-level effects of Bd in two post-decline anuran species, Eleutherodactylus coqui and E. portoricensis, at El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico. Data on amphibian abundance was updated to report long-term population trends. Mark-recapture data was used to monitor Bd-infection status and estimate survival probabilities of infected versus uninfected adults. Prevalence of Bd (number of infected/total sampled) and individual infection level (number of zoospores) were compared among age classes at Palo Colorado Forest (661 m) and Elfin Forest (850 m). Results revealed that both species continued to decrease in Palo Colorado Forest, while in the Elfin Forest, E. portoricensis recuperated from drastic declines. Age class, season, and locality significantly predicted zoospore load. Age was also significantly associated with high zoospores loads among Bd-positive frogs, and the prevalence of Bd was higher in juveniles than adults in all populations studied. We suggest that early age represents a critical life stage in the survival of direct-developing frogs infected by this fungus. Survival probability was always higher for uninfected frogs, but recapture rates of infected versus uninfected adults were significantly different only in Palo Colorado, alerting that the negative effect of Bd infection under enzootic conditions is greater at mid-elevations. This work contributes to our understanding of how direct-developing amphibians persist with Bd, pointing to critical life stages and synergistic interactions that may induce fluctuations and/or declines in the wild.

  11. Joint probability distributions for projection probabilities of random orthonormal states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alonso, L.; Gorin, T.

    2016-04-01

    The quantum chaos conjecture applied to a finite dimensional quantum system implies that such a system has eigenstates that show similar statistical properties as the column vectors of random orthogonal or unitary matrices. Here, we consider the different probabilities for obtaining a specific outcome in a projective measurement, provided the system is in one of its eigenstates. We then give analytic expressions for the joint probability density for these probabilities, with respect to the ensemble of random matrices. In the case of the unitary group, our results can be applied, also, to the phenomenon of universal conductance fluctuations, where the same mathematical quantities describe partial conductances in a two-terminal mesoscopic scattering problem with a finite number of modes in each terminal.

  12. On the Survival Stage.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callahan, Steven

    1997-01-01

    Presents a survival expert's model of survival. Characterizes survival in terms of being prepared for a crisis, escaping the immediate threat, avoiding disorientation and fear, and the survival routine, which includes hope, flexibility, and humor. Notes the impact of posttrauma situations and the need for continued vigilance. (RJM)

  13. Imprecise probabilities in engineering analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beer, Michael; Ferson, Scott; Kreinovich, Vladik

    2013-05-01

    Probabilistic uncertainty and imprecision in structural parameters and in environmental conditions and loads are challenging phenomena in engineering analyses. They require appropriate mathematical modeling and quantification to obtain realistic results when predicting the behavior and reliability of engineering structures and systems. But the modeling and quantification is complicated by the characteristics of the available information, which involves, for example, sparse data, poor measurements and subjective information. This raises the question whether the available information is sufficient for probabilistic modeling or rather suggests a set-theoretical approach. The framework of imprecise probabilities provides a mathematical basis to deal with these problems which involve both probabilistic and non-probabilistic information. A common feature of the various concepts of imprecise probabilities is the consideration of an entire set of probabilistic models in one analysis. The theoretical differences between the concepts mainly concern the mathematical description of the set of probabilistic models and the connection to the probabilistic models involved. This paper provides an overview on developments which involve imprecise probabilities for the solution of engineering problems. Evidence theory, probability bounds analysis with p-boxes, and fuzzy probabilities are discussed with emphasis on their key features and on their relationships to one another. This paper was especially prepared for this special issue and reflects, in various ways, the thinking and presentation preferences of the authors, who are also the guest editors for this special issue.

  14. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    PubMed

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods.

  15. Children's understanding of posterior probability.

    PubMed

    Girotto, Vittorio; Gonzalez, Michel

    2008-01-01

    Do young children have a basic intuition of posterior probability? Do they update their decisions and judgments in the light of new evidence? We hypothesized that they can do so extensionally, by considering and counting the various ways in which an event may or may not occur. The results reported in this paper showed that from the age of five, children's decisions under uncertainty (Study 1) and judgments about random outcomes (Study 2) are correctly affected by posterior information. From the same age, children correctly revise their decisions in situations in which they face a single, uncertain event, produced by an intentional agent (Study 3). The finding that young children have some understanding of posterior probability supports the theory of naive extensional reasoning, and contravenes some pessimistic views of probabilistic reasoning, in particular the evolutionary claim that the human mind cannot deal with single-case probability. PMID:17391661

  16. Interference of probabilities in dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Zak, Michail

    2014-08-15

    A new class of dynamical systems with a preset type of interference of probabilities is introduced. It is obtained from the extension of the Madelung equation by replacing the quantum potential with a specially selected feedback from the Liouville equation. It has been proved that these systems are different from both Newtonian and quantum systems, but they can be useful for modeling spontaneous collective novelty phenomena when emerging outputs are qualitatively different from the weighted sum of individual inputs. Formation of language and fast decision-making process as potential applications of the probability interference is discussed.

  17. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, G. D.; Zucker, L. J.

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  18. Public perception of cancer survival rankings.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Jakob D; Scherr, Courtney L; Brown, Natasha; Jones, Christina; Christy, Katheryn

    2013-12-01

    Past research has observed that certain subgroups (e.g., individuals who are overweight/obese) have inaccurate estimates of survival rates for particular cancers (e.g., colon cancer). However, no study has examined whether the lay public can accurately rank cancer survival rates in comparison with one another (i.e., rank cancers from most deadly to least deadly). A sample of 400 Indiana adults aged 18 to 89 years (M = 33.88 years) completed a survey with questions regarding perceived cancer survival rates. Most cancers were ranked accurately; however, breast and stomach cancer survival rankings were highly distorted such that breast cancer was perceived to be significantly more deadly and stomach cancer significantly less deadly than reality. Younger participants also overestimated the survival rate for pancreatic cancer. These distortions mirror past content analytic work demonstrating that breast, stomach, and pancreatic cancers are misrepresented in the news. PMID:23463791

  19. Progression free survival and functional outcome after surgical resection of intramedullary ependymomas.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, Kalil G; Lubelski, Daniel; Miller, Jacob; Steinmetz, Michael P; Shin, John H; Krishnaney, Ajit; Mroz, Thomas E; Benzel, Edward C

    2015-12-01

    We present a 15 year institutional analysis of the factors affecting progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients undergoing attempted resection of adult intramedullary spinal cord ependymomas. Intramedullary spinal cord tumors are rare but important clinical entities, and ependymomas are the most commonly encountered intramedullary tumor. In total, 53 adult patients over the span of 15 years were analyzed for OS, PFS, and the effects of plane of dissection (POD) and gross total resection (GTR) on functional and long term outcomes. The mean age was 45 years and median follow-up was 54 months. The follow-up neurological outcome and modified McCormick scale were used to determine the functional outcome. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to calculate progression and survival. The overall ability to achieve GTR was significantly correlated to identification of an intraoperative POD (p<0.001). There was a trend towards increased PFS with the ability to achieve a GTR. There was no significant difference in the pre- and postoperative functional outcome scores. The ability to achieve a GTR is strongly correlated to the identification of a POD in ependymomas. There is a trend towards an increased probability of PFS in intramedullary spinal cord tumors when GTR is achieved. The resection of these tumors is likely to halt, but not reverse, neurological deterioration. PMID:26234635

  20. Quantifying Extinction Probabilities from Sighting Records: Inference and Uncertainties

    PubMed Central

    Caley, Peter; Barry, Simon C.

    2014-01-01

    Methods are needed to estimate the probability that a population is extinct, whether to underpin decisions regarding the continuation of a invasive species eradication program, or to decide whether further searches for a rare and endangered species could be warranted. Current models for inferring extinction probability based on sighting data typically assume a constant or declining sighting rate. We develop methods to analyse these models in a Bayesian framework to estimate detection and survival probabilities of a population conditional on sighting data. We note, however, that the assumption of a constant or declining sighting rate may be hard to justify, especially for incursions of invasive species with potentially positive population growth rates. We therefore explored introducing additional process complexity via density-dependent survival and detection probabilities, with population density no longer constrained to be constant or decreasing. These models were applied to sparse carcass discoveries associated with the recent incursion of the European red fox (Vulpes vulpes) into Tasmania, Australia. While a simple model provided apparently precise estimates of parameters and extinction probability, estimates arising from the more complex model were much more uncertain, with the sparse data unable to clearly resolve the underlying population processes. The outcome of this analysis was a much higher possibility of population persistence. We conclude that if it is safe to assume detection and survival parameters are constant, then existing models can be readily applied to sighting data to estimate extinction probability. If not, methods reliant on these simple assumptions are likely overstating their accuracy, and their use to underpin decision-making potentially fraught. Instead, researchers will need to more carefully specify priors about possible population processes. PMID:24788945

  1. Quantifying extinction probabilities from sighting records: inference and uncertainties.

    PubMed

    Caley, Peter; Barry, Simon C

    2014-01-01

    Methods are needed to estimate the probability that a population is extinct, whether to underpin decisions regarding the continuation of a invasive species eradication program, or to decide whether further searches for a rare and endangered species could be warranted. Current models for inferring extinction probability based on sighting data typically assume a constant or declining sighting rate. We develop methods to analyse these models in a Bayesian framework to estimate detection and survival probabilities of a population conditional on sighting data. We note, however, that the assumption of a constant or declining sighting rate may be hard to justify, especially for incursions of invasive species with potentially positive population growth rates. We therefore explored introducing additional process complexity via density-dependent survival and detection probabilities, with population density no longer constrained to be constant or decreasing. These models were applied to sparse carcass discoveries associated with the recent incursion of the European red fox (Vulpes vulpes) into Tasmania, Australia. While a simple model provided apparently precise estimates of parameters and extinction probability, estimates arising from the more complex model were much more uncertain, with the sparse data unable to clearly resolve the underlying population processes. The outcome of this analysis was a much higher possibility of population persistence. We conclude that if it is safe to assume detection and survival parameters are constant, then existing models can be readily applied to sighting data to estimate extinction probability. If not, methods reliant on these simple assumptions are likely overstating their accuracy, and their use to underpin decision-making potentially fraught. Instead, researchers will need to more carefully specify priors about possible population processes. PMID:24788945

  2. Testing assumptions for unbiased estimation of survival of radiomarked harlequin ducks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esler, Daniel; Mulcahy, D.M.; Jarvis, R.L.

    2000-01-01

    Unbiased estimates of survival based on individuals outfitted with radiotransmitters require meeting the assumptions that radios do not affect survival, and animals for which the radio signal is lost have the same survival probability as those for which fate is known. In most survival studies, researchers have made these assumptions without testing their validity. We tested these assumptions by comparing interannual recapture rates (and, by inference, survival) between radioed and unradioed adult female harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus), and for radioed females, between right-censored birds (i.e., those for which the radio signal was lost during the telemetry monitoring period) and birds with known fates. We found that recapture rates of birds equipped with implanted radiotransmitters (21.6 ?? 3.0%; x?? ?? SE) were similar to unradioed birds (21.7 ?? 8.6%), suggesting that radios did not affect survival. Recapture rates also were similar between right-censored (20.6 ?? 5.1%) and known-fate individuals (22.1 ?? 3.8%), suggesting that missing birds were not subject to differential mortality. We also determined that capture and handling resulted in short-term loss of body mass for both radioed and unradioed females and that this effect was more pronounced for radioed birds (the difference between groups was 15.4 ?? 7.1 g). However, no difference existed in body mass after recapture 1 year later. Our study suggests that implanted radios are an unbiased method for estimating survival of harlequin ducks and likely other species under similar circumstances.

  3. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  4. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  5. Some Surprising Probabilities from Bingo.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mercer, Joseph O.

    1993-01-01

    Investigates the probability of winning the largest prize at Bingo through a series of five simpler problems. Investigations are conducted with the aid of either BASIC computer programs, spreadsheets, or a computer algebra system such as Mathematica. Provides sample data tables to illustrate findings. (MDH)

  6. Probability Simulation in Middle School.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lappan, Glenda; Winter, M. J.

    1980-01-01

    Two simulations designed to teach probability to middle-school age pupils are presented. The first simulates the one-on-one foul shot simulation in basketball; the second deals with collecting a set of six cereal box prizes by buying boxes containing one toy each. (MP)

  7. Comments on quantum probability theory.

    PubMed

    Sloman, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Quantum probability theory (QP) is the best formal representation available of the most common form of judgment involving attribute comparison (inside judgment). People are capable, however, of judgments that involve proportions over sets of instances (outside judgment). Here, the theory does not do so well. I discuss the theory both in terms of descriptive adequacy and normative appropriateness.

  8. Understanding Y haplotype matching probability.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Charles H

    2014-01-01

    The Y haplotype population-genetic terrain is better explored from a fresh perspective rather than by analogy with the more familiar autosomal ideas. For haplotype matching probabilities, versus for autosomal matching probabilities, explicit attention to modelling - such as how evolution got us where we are - is much more important while consideration of population frequency is much less so. This paper explores, extends, and explains some of the concepts of "Fundamental problem of forensic mathematics - the evidential strength of a rare haplotype match". That earlier paper presented and validated a "kappa method" formula for the evidential strength when a suspect matches a previously unseen haplotype (such as a Y-haplotype) at the crime scene. Mathematical implications of the kappa method are intuitive and reasonable. Suspicions to the contrary raised in rest on elementary errors. Critical to deriving the kappa method or any sensible evidential calculation is understanding that thinking about haplotype population frequency is a red herring; the pivotal question is one of matching probability. But confusion between the two is unfortunately institutionalized in much of the forensic world. Examples make clear why (matching) probability is not (population) frequency and why uncertainty intervals on matching probabilities are merely confused thinking. Forensic matching calculations should be based on a model, on stipulated premises. The model inevitably only approximates reality, and any error in the results comes only from error in the model, the inexactness of the approximation. Sampling variation does not measure that inexactness and hence is not helpful in explaining evidence and is in fact an impediment. Alternative haplotype matching probability approaches that various authors have considered are reviewed. Some are based on no model and cannot be taken seriously. For the others, some evaluation of the models is discussed. Recent evidence supports the adequacy of

  9. On the probability of cure for heavy-ion radiotherapy.

    PubMed

    Hanin, Leonid; Zaider, Marco

    2014-07-21

    The probability of a cure in radiation therapy (RT)-viewed as the probability of eventual extinction of all cancer cells-is unobservable, and the only way to compute it is through modeling the dynamics of cancer cell population during and post-treatment. The conundrum at the heart of biophysical models aimed at such prospective calculations is the absence of information on the initial size of the subpopulation of clonogenic cancer cells (also called stem-like cancer cells), that largely determines the outcome of RT, both in an individual and population settings. Other relevant parameters (e.g. potential doubling time, cell loss factor and survival probability as a function of dose) are, at least in principle, amenable to empirical determination. In this article we demonstrate that, for heavy-ion RT, microdosimetric considerations (justifiably ignored in conventional RT) combined with an expression for the clone extinction probability obtained from a mechanistic model of radiation cell survival lead to useful upper bounds on the size of the pre-treatment population of clonogenic cancer cells as well as upper and lower bounds on the cure probability. The main practical impact of these limiting values is the ability to make predictions about the probability of a cure for a given population of patients treated to newer, still unexplored treatment modalities from the empirically determined probability of a cure for the same or similar population resulting from conventional low linear energy transfer (typically photon/electron) RT. We also propose that the current trend to deliver a lower total dose in a smaller number of fractions with larger-than-conventional doses per fraction has physical limits that must be understood before embarking on a particular treatment schedule.

  10. On the probability of cure for heavy-ion radiotherapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanin, Leonid; Zaider, Marco

    2014-07-01

    The probability of a cure in radiation therapy (RT)—viewed as the probability of eventual extinction of all cancer cells—is unobservable, and the only way to compute it is through modeling the dynamics of cancer cell population during and post-treatment. The conundrum at the heart of biophysical models aimed at such prospective calculations is the absence of information on the initial size of the subpopulation of clonogenic cancer cells (also called stem-like cancer cells), that largely determines the outcome of RT, both in an individual and population settings. Other relevant parameters (e.g. potential doubling time, cell loss factor and survival probability as a function of dose) are, at least in principle, amenable to empirical determination. In this article we demonstrate that, for heavy-ion RT, microdosimetric considerations (justifiably ignored in conventional RT) combined with an expression for the clone extinction probability obtained from a mechanistic model of radiation cell survival lead to useful upper bounds on the size of the pre-treatment population of clonogenic cancer cells as well as upper and lower bounds on the cure probability. The main practical impact of these limiting values is the ability to make predictions about the probability of a cure for a given population of patients treated to newer, still unexplored treatment modalities from the empirically determined probability of a cure for the same or similar population resulting from conventional low linear energy transfer (typically photon/electron) RT. We also propose that the current trend to deliver a lower total dose in a smaller number of fractions with larger-than-conventional doses per fraction has physical limits that must be understood before embarking on a particular treatment schedule.

  11. Spatial patterns of coral survivorship: impacts of adult proximity versus other drivers of localized mortality.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, David A; Hay, Mark E

    2015-01-01

    Species-specific enemies may promote prey coexistence through negative distance- and density-dependent survival of juveniles near conspecific adults. We tested this mechanism by transplanting juvenile-sized fragments of the brooding corals Pocillopora damicornis and Seriatopora hystrix 3, 12, 24 and 182 cm up- and down-current of conspecific adults and monitoring their survival and condition over time. We also characterized the spatial distribution of P. damicornis and S. hystrix within replicate plots on three Fijian reef flats and measured the distribution of small colonies within 2 m of larger colonies of each species. Juvenile-sized transplants exhibited no differences in survivorship as a function of distance from adult P. damicornis or S. hystrix. Additionally, both P. damicornis and S. hystrix were aggregated rather than overdispersed on natural reefs. However, a pattern of juveniles being aggregated near adults while larger (and probably older) colonies were not suggests that greater mortality near large adults could occur over longer periods of time or that size-dependent mortality was occurring. While we found minimal evidence of greater mortality of small colonies near adult conspecifics in our transplant experiments, we did document hot-spots of species-specific corallivory. We detected spatially localized and temporally persistent predation on P. damicornis by the territorial triggerfish Balistapus undulatus. This patchy predation did not occur for S. hystrix. This variable selective regime in an otherwise more uniform environment could be one mechanism maintaining diversity of corals on Indo-Pacific reefs. PMID:26623193

  12. Spatial patterns of coral survivorship: impacts of adult proximity versus other drivers of localized mortality

    PubMed Central

    Gibbs, David A.

    2015-01-01

    Species-specific enemies may promote prey coexistence through negative distance- and density-dependent survival of juveniles near conspecific adults. We tested this mechanism by transplanting juvenile-sized fragments of the brooding corals Pocillopora damicornis and Seriatopora hystrix 3, 12, 24 and 182 cm up- and down-current of conspecific adults and monitoring their survival and condition over time. We also characterized the spatial distribution of P. damicornis and S. hystrix within replicate plots on three Fijian reef flats and measured the distribution of small colonies within 2 m of larger colonies of each species. Juvenile-sized transplants exhibited no differences in survivorship as a function of distance from adult P. damicornis or S. hystrix. Additionally, both P. damicornis and S. hystrix were aggregated rather than overdispersed on natural reefs. However, a pattern of juveniles being aggregated near adults while larger (and probably older) colonies were not suggests that greater mortality near large adults could occur over longer periods of time or that size-dependent mortality was occurring. While we found minimal evidence of greater mortality of small colonies near adult conspecifics in our transplant experiments, we did document hot-spots of species-specific corallivory. We detected spatially localized and temporally persistent predation on P. damicornis by the territorial triggerfish Balistapus undulatus. This patchy predation did not occur for S. hystrix. This variable selective regime in an otherwise more uniform environment could be one mechanism maintaining diversity of corals on Indo-Pacific reefs. PMID:26623193

  13. Knot probabilities in random diagrams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cantarella, Jason; Chapman, Harrison; Mastin, Matt

    2016-10-01

    We consider a natural model of random knotting—choose a knot diagram at random from the finite set of diagrams with n crossings. We tabulate diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings and classify the diagrams by knot type, allowing us to compute exact probabilities for knots in this model. As expected, most diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings are unknots (about 78% of the roughly 1.6 billion 10 crossing diagrams). For these crossing numbers, the unknot fraction is mostly explained by the prevalence of ‘tree-like’ diagrams which are unknots for any assignment of over/under information at crossings. The data shows a roughly linear relationship between the log of knot type probability and the log of the frequency rank of the knot type, analogous to Zipf’s law for word frequency. The complete tabulation and all knot frequencies are included as supplementary data.

  14. Probability distributions for multimeric systems.

    PubMed

    Albert, Jaroslav; Rooman, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    We propose a fast and accurate method of obtaining the equilibrium mono-modal joint probability distributions for multimeric systems. The method necessitates only two assumptions: the copy number of all species of molecule may be treated as continuous; and, the probability density functions (pdf) are well-approximated by multivariate skew normal distributions (MSND). Starting from the master equation, we convert the problem into a set of equations for the statistical moments which are then expressed in terms of the parameters intrinsic to the MSND. Using an optimization package on Mathematica, we minimize a Euclidian distance function comprising of a sum of the squared difference between the left and the right hand sides of these equations. Comparison of results obtained via our method with those rendered by the Gillespie algorithm demonstrates our method to be highly accurate as well as efficient.

  15. Probability, Information and Statistical Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuzemsky, A. L.

    2016-03-01

    In this short survey review we discuss foundational issues of the probabilistic approach to information theory and statistical mechanics from a unified standpoint. Emphasis is on the inter-relations between theories. The basic aim is tutorial, i.e. to carry out a basic introduction to the analysis and applications of probabilistic concepts to the description of various aspects of complexity and stochasticity. We consider probability as a foundational concept in statistical mechanics and review selected advances in the theoretical understanding of interrelation of the probability, information and statistical description with regard to basic notions of statistical mechanics of complex systems. It includes also a synthesis of past and present researches and a survey of methodology. The purpose of this terse overview is to discuss and partially describe those probabilistic methods and approaches that are used in statistical mechanics with the purpose of making these ideas easier to understanding and to apply.

  16. A Winter Survival Unit.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Ronald E.

    1979-01-01

    The article is a condensation of materials from the winter survival unit of a Canadian snow ecology course. The unit covers: cold physiology, frostbite, snowblindness, hypothermia, winter campout, and survival strategies. (SB)

  17. Age-specific survival of male golden-cheeked warblers on the Fort Hood Military Reservation, Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Duarte, Adam; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Hatfield, Jeffrey S.; Weckerly, Floyd W.

    2014-01-01

    Population models are essential components of large-scale conservation and management plans for the federally endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia; hereafter GCWA). However, existing models are based on vital rate estimates calculated using relatively small data sets that are now more than a decade old. We estimated more current, precise adult and juvenile apparent survival (Φ) probabilities and their associated variances for male GCWAs. In addition to providing estimates for use in population modeling, we tested hypotheses about spatial and temporal variation in Φ. We assessed whether a linear trend in Φ or a change in the overall mean Φ corresponded to an observed increase in GCWA abundance during 1992-2000 and if Φ varied among study plots. To accomplish these objectives, we analyzed long-term GCWA capture-resight data from 1992 through 2011, collected across seven study plots on the Fort Hood Military Reservation using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model structure within program MARK. We also estimated Φ process and sampling variances using a variance-components approach. Our results did not provide evidence of site-specific variation in adult Φ on the installation. Because of a lack of data, we could not assess whether juvenile Φ varied spatially. We did not detect a strong temporal association between GCWA abundance and Φ. Mean estimates of Φ for adult and juvenile male GCWAs for all years analyzed were 0.47 with a process variance of 0.0120 and a sampling variance of 0.0113 and 0.28 with a process variance of 0.0076 and a sampling variance of 0.0149, respectively. Although juvenile Φ did not differ greatly from previous estimates, our adult Φ estimate suggests previous GCWA population models were overly optimistic with respect to adult survival. These updated Φ probabilities and their associated variances will be incorporated into new population models to assist with GCWA conservation decision making.

  18. Objective Probability and Quantum Fuzziness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohrhoff, U.

    2009-02-01

    This paper offers a critique of the Bayesian interpretation of quantum mechanics with particular focus on a paper by Caves, Fuchs, and Schack containing a critique of the “objective preparations view” or OPV. It also aims to carry the discussion beyond the hardened positions of Bayesians and proponents of the OPV. Several claims made by Caves et al. are rebutted, including the claim that different pure states may legitimately be assigned to the same system at the same time, and the claim that the quantum nature of a preparation device cannot legitimately be ignored. Both Bayesians and proponents of the OPV regard the time dependence of a quantum state as the continuous dependence on time of an evolving state of some kind. This leads to a false dilemma: quantum states are either objective states of nature or subjective states of belief. In reality they are neither. The present paper views the aforesaid dependence as a dependence on the time of the measurement to whose possible outcomes the quantum state serves to assign probabilities. This makes it possible to recognize the full implications of the only testable feature of the theory, viz., the probabilities it assigns to measurement outcomes. Most important among these are the objective fuzziness of all relative positions and momenta and the consequent incomplete spatiotemporal differentiation of the physical world. The latter makes it possible to draw a clear distinction between the macroscopic and the microscopic. This in turn makes it possible to understand the special status of measurements in all standard formulations of the theory. Whereas Bayesians have written contemptuously about the “folly” of conjoining “objective” to “probability,” there are various reasons why quantum-mechanical probabilities can be considered objective, not least the fact that they are needed to quantify an objective fuzziness. But this cannot be appreciated without giving thought to the makeup of the world, which

  19. High intestinal lactase concentrations in adult Arbs in Saudi Arabia.

    PubMed

    Cook, G C; al-Torki, M T

    1975-07-19

    The maximum rise in blood glucose after 50 g lactose by mouth was determined in 40 adult Arabs. Out of 30 Bedouin, urban Saudi, and Yemeni and 9 of mixed ancestry (usually partly African), 25 (83%) and 2 (22%) respectively showed an increase of over 1-1 mmol/1 (20 mg/100 ml). In common with most northern Europeans and Hamitic people of northern Africa, Arabs in Saudi Arabia usually have high intestinal lactase concentrations in adult life. This persistence of high levels probably originated in the Arabian peninsula. Its selective advantage may have been associated with the fluid and calorie content of camels' milk, which is important for survival in desert nomads. PMID:1170003

  20. Adult Books for Young Adults.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Betty

    1997-01-01

    Considers the differences between young adult and adult books and maintains that teachers must be familiar with young adults' tastes for both. Suggests that traffic between these publishing divisions is a two-way street, with young adults reading adult books and adults reading young adult books. (TB)

  1. Probability for Weather and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  2. Surviving Atmospheric Spacecraft Breakup

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Szewczyk, Nathaniel J.; Conley, Catharine A.

    2003-01-01

    In essence, to survival a spacecraft breakup an animal must not experience a lethal event. Much as with surviving aircraft breakup, dissipation of lethal forces via breakup of the craft around the organism is likely to greatly increase the odds of survival. As spacecraft can travel higher and faster than aircraft, it is often assumed that spacecraft breakup is not a survivable event. Similarly, the belief that aircraft breakup or crashes are not survivable events is still prevalent in the general population. As those of us involved in search and rescue know, it is possible to survive both aircraft breakup and crashes. Here we make the first report of an animal, C. elegans, surviving atmospheric breakup of the spacecraft supporting it and discuss both the lethal events these animals had to escape and the implications implied for search and rescue following spacecraft breakup.

  3. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clausen, Drew R.; Piro, Anthony; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-01-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. Using the observed BH mass distribution from Galactic X-ray binaries, we investigate the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass. Although the shape of the black hole formation probability function is poorly constrained by current measurements, we believe that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. We also consider some of the implications of this probability distribution, from its impact on the chemical enrichment from massive stars, to its connection with the structure of the core at the time of collapse, to the birth kicks that black holes receive. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be a useful input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  4. Probability, statistics, and computational science.

    PubMed

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.

  5. A Survival Kit for Teaching English to Refugees. TECHNIQUES.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Overbeck, Carla

    1984-01-01

    Adult basic education and English as a second language teachers, as well as volunteer tutors, can help new refugees acquire functional English through the use of a survival kit. The Literacy Volunteers of America's guide to teaching conversational English recommends these items for a survival kit: a written copy of student's name, address, and…

  6. Persistence probabilities for stream populations.

    PubMed

    Samia, Yasmine; Lutscher, Frithjof

    2012-07-01

    Individuals in streams and rivers are constantly at risk of being washed downstream and thereby lost to their population. The possibility of diffusion-mediated persistence of populations in advective environments has been the focus of a multitude of recent modeling efforts. Most of these recent models are deterministic, and they predict the existence of a critical advection velocity, above which a population cannot persist. In this work, we present a stochastic approach to the persistence problem in streams and rivers. We use the dominant eigenvalue of the advection-diffusion operator to transition from a spatially explicit description to a spatially implicit birth-death process, in which individual washout from the domain appears as an additional death term. We find that the deterministic persistence threshold is replaced by a smooth transition from almost sure persistence to extinction as advection velocity increases. More interestingly, we explore how temporal variation in flow rate and other parameters affect the persistence probability. In line with general expectations, we find that temporal variation often decreases the persistence probability, and we focus on a few examples of how variation can increase population persistence.

  7. Lectures on probability and statistics

    SciTech Connect

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another.

  8. Factors affecting settling, survival, and viability of black bears reintroduced to Felsenthal National Wildlife Refuge, Arkansas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wear, B.J.; Eastridge, R.; Clark, J.D.

    2005-01-01

    We used radiotelemetry and population modeling techniques to examine factors related to population establishment of black bears (Ursus americanus) reintroduced to Felsenthal National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), Arkansas. Our objectives were to determine whether settling (i.e., establishment of a home range at or near the release site), survival, recruitment, and population viability were related to age class of reintroduced bears, presence of cubs, time since release, or number of translocated animals. We removed 23 adult female black bears with 56 cubs from their winter dens at White River NWR and transported them 160 km to man-made den structures at Felsenthal NWR during spring 2000–2002. Total movement and average circuity of adult females decreased from 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year post-emergence (F2,14 =19.7, P < 0.001 and F2,14 =5.76, P=0.015, respectively). Mean first-year post-release survival of adult female bears was 0.624 (SE = 0.110, SEinterannual = 0.144), and the survival rate of their cubs was 0.750 (SE = 0.088, SEinterannual = 0.109). The homing rate (i.e., the proportion of bears that returned to White River NWR) was 13%. Annual survival for female bears that remained at the release site and survived >1-year post-release increased to 0.909 (SE = 0.097, SEinterannual=0.067; Z=3.5, P < 0.001). Based on stochastic population growth simulations, the average annual growth rate (λ) was 1.093 (SD = 0.053) and the probability of extinction with no additional stockings ranged from 0.56-1.30%. The bear population at Felsenthal NWR is at or above the number after which extinction risk declines dramatically, although additional releases of bears could significantly decrease time to population reestablishment. Poaching accounted for at least 3 of the 8 adult mortalities that we documented; illegal kills could be a significant impediment to population re-establishment at Felsenthal NWR should poaching rates escalate.

  9. Life in varying environments: experimental evidence for delayed effects of juvenile environment on adult life history.

    PubMed

    Helle, Heikki; Koskela, Esa; Mappes, Tapio

    2012-05-01

    1. The effects of environment experienced during early development on phenotype as an adult has started to gain vast amounts of interest in various taxa. Some evidence on long-term effects of juvenile environment is available, but replicated experimental studies in wild animals are still lacking. 2. Here we report the first replicated experiment in wild mammals which examines the long-term effects of juvenile and adult environments on individual fitness (reproduction, survival and health). The early development of bank vole (Myodes glareolus) individuals took place in either food-supplemented or un-supplemented outdoor enclosures. After the summer, adult individuals were reciprocally changed to either a similar or opposite resource environment to overwinter. 3. Adult environment had an overriding effect on reproductive success of females so that females overwintering in food-supplemented enclosures had a higher probability of breeding and advanced the initiation of breeding. However, the characteristics of their litters were determined by juvenile environment: females initially grown in food-supplemented conditions subsequently produced larger litters with bigger pups and a male-biased sex ratio. 4. In males, individuals growing in un-supplemented conditions had the highest survival irrespective of adult environment during winter, whereas in females, neither the juvenile nor adult environments affected their survival significantly. The physiological condition of voles in spring, as determined by haematological parameters, was also differentially affected by juvenile (plasma proteins and male testosterone) and adult (haematocrit) environments. 5. Our results suggest that (i) life-history trajectories of voles are not strictly specialized to a certain environment and (ii) the plastic life-history responses to present conditions can actually be caused by delayed effects of the juvenile environment. More generally, the results are important for understanding

  10. Gender Dysphoria in Adults.

    PubMed

    Zucker, Kenneth J; Lawrence, Anne A; Kreukels, Baudewijntje P C

    2016-01-01

    Gender dysphoria (GD), a term that denotes persistent discomfort with one's biologic sex or assigned gender, replaced the diagnosis of gender identity disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders in 2013. Subtypes of GD in adults, defined by sexual orientation and age of onset, have been described; these display different developmental trajectories and prognoses. Prevalence studies conclude that fewer than 1 in 10,000 adult natal males and 1 in 30,000 adult natal females experience GD, but such estimates vary widely. GD in adults is associated with an elevated prevalence of comorbid psychopathology, especially mood disorders, anxiety disorders, and suicidality. Causal mechanisms in GD are incompletely understood, but genetic, neurodevelopmental, and psychosocial factors probably all contribute. Treatment of GD in adults, although largely standardized, is likely to evolve in response to the increasing diversity of persons seeking treatment, demands for greater client autonomy, and improved understanding of the benefits and limitations of current treatment modalities. PMID:26788901

  11. A new approach to the "apparent survival" problem: estimating true survival rates from mark-recapture studies.

    PubMed

    Gilroy, James J; Virzi, Thomas; Boulton, Rebecca L; Lockwood, Julie L

    2012-07-01

    Survival estimates generated from live capture-mark-recapture studies may be negatively biased due to the permanent emigration of marked individuals from the study area. In the absence of a robust analytical solution, researchers typically sidestep this problem by simply reporting estimates using the term "apparent survival." Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian multistate model designed to estimate true survival by accounting for predicted rates of permanent emigration. Initially we use dispersal kernels to generate spatial projections of dispersal probability around each capture location. From these projections, we estimate emigration probability for each marked individual and use the resulting values to generate bias-adjusted survival estimates from individual capture histories. When tested using simulated data sets featuring variable detection probabilities, survival rates, and dispersal patterns, the model consistently eliminated negative biases shown by apparent survival estimates from standard models. When applied to a case study concerning juvenile survival in the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), bias-adjusted survival estimates increased more than twofold above apparent survival estimates. Our approach is applicable to any capture-mark-recapture study design and should be particularly valuable for organisms with dispersive juvenile life stages. PMID:22919897

  12. Ephrin-B3 decreases the survival of adult rat spinal cord-derived neural stem/progenitor cells in vitro and after transplantation into the injured rat spinal cord.

    PubMed

    Fan, Xin Yan Susan; Mothe, Andrea J; Tator, Charles H

    2013-02-01

    Although transplantation of neural stem/progenitor cells (NSPC) encourages regeneration and repair after spinal cord injury (SCI), the survival of transplanted NSPC is limited. Ephrin-B3 has been shown to reduce the death of endogenous NSPC in the subventricular zone of the mouse brain without inducing uncontrolled proliferation. Due to similarities in the environment of the brain and spinal cord, we hypothesized that ephrin-B3 might reduce the death of both transplanted and endogenous spinal cord-derived NSPC. Both normal and injured (26 g clip compression) spinal cords were examined. Ephrin-B3-Fc was tested, and Fc fragments and phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) were used as controls. We found that EphA4 receptors were expressed by spinal cord-derived NSPC and expressed in the normal and injured rat spinal cord (higher expression in the latter). In vitro, ephrin-B3-Fc did not significantly reduce the survival of NSPC except at 1 μg/mL (P<0.05), but Fc fragments alone reduced NSPC survival at all doses in a dose-dependent fashion. In vivo, intrathecal infusion of ephrin-B3-Fc increased the proliferation of endogenous ependymal cells and the proportion of proliferating cells that expressed the glial fibrillary acidic protein astrocytic marker in the injured spinal cord compared with the infusion of PBS (P<0.05). However, in the injured spinal cord, the infusion of either ephrin-B3-Fc or Fc fragments alone caused a 20-fold reduction in the survival of transplanted NSPC (P<0.001). Thus, after SCI, ephrin-B3-Fc and Fc fragments are toxic to transplanted NSPC.

  13. MSPI False Indication Probability Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Dana Kelly; Kurt Vedros; Robert Youngblood

    2011-03-01

    This paper examines false indication probabilities in the context of the Mitigating System Performance Index (MSPI), in order to investigate the pros and cons of different approaches to resolving two coupled issues: (1) sensitivity to the prior distribution used in calculating the Bayesian-corrected unreliability contribution to the MSPI, and (2) whether (in a particular plant configuration) to model the fuel oil transfer pump (FOTP) as a separate component, or integrally to its emergency diesel generator (EDG). False indication probabilities were calculated for the following situations: (1) all component reliability parameters at their baseline values, so that the true indication is green, meaning that an indication of white or above would be false positive; (2) one or more components degraded to the extent that the true indication would be (mid) white, and “false” would be green (negative) or yellow (negative) or red (negative). In key respects, this was the approach taken in NUREG-1753. The prior distributions examined were the constrained noninformative (CNI) prior used currently by the MSPI, a mixture of conjugate priors, the Jeffreys noninformative prior, a nonconjugate log(istic)-normal prior, and the minimally informative prior investigated in (Kelly et al., 2010). The mid-white performance state was set at ?CDF = ?10 ? 10-6/yr. For each simulated time history, a check is made of whether the calculated ?CDF is above or below 10-6/yr. If the parameters were at their baseline values, and ?CDF > 10-6/yr, this is counted as a false positive. Conversely, if one or all of the parameters are set to values corresponding to ?CDF > 10-6/yr but that time history’s ?CDF < 10-6/yr, this is counted as a false negative indication. The false indication (positive or negative) probability is then estimated as the number of false positive or negative counts divided by the number of time histories (100,000). Results are presented for a set of base case parameter values

  14. Strengths and Satisfaction across the Adult Lifespan

    ERIC Educational Resour