Science.gov

Sample records for advanced best-estimate predictions

  1. TRAC-PF1: an advanced best-estimate computer program for pressurized water reactor analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Liles, D.R.; Mahaffy, J.H.

    1984-02-01

    The Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) is being developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory to provide advanced best-estimate predictions of postulated accidents in light water reactors. The TRAC-PF1 program provides this capability for pressurized water reactors and for many thermal-hydraulic experimental facilities. The code features either a one-dimensional or a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and its associated internals; a two-phase, two-fluid nonequilibrium hydrodynamics model with a noncondensable gas field; flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment; optional reflood tracking capability for both bottom flood and falling-film quench fronts; and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions. This report describes the thermal-hydraulic models and the numerical solution methods used in the code. Detailed programming and user information also are provided.

  2. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology including advanced validation concepts to license evolving nuclear reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Unal, Cetin; Williams, Brian; Mc Clure, Patrick; Nelson, Ralph A

    2010-01-01

    Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for cost

  3. Ares I-X Best Estimated Trajectory and Comparison with Pre-Flight Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karlgaard, Christopher D.; Beck, Roger E.; Derry, Stephen D.; Brandon, Jay M.; Starr, Brett R.; Tartabini, Paul V.; Olds, Aaron D.

    2011-01-01

    The Ares I-X trajectory reconstruction produced best estimated trajectories of the flight test vehicle ascent through stage separation, and of the first and upper stage entries after separation. The trajectory reconstruction process combines on-board, ground-based, and atmospheric measurements to produce the trajectory estimates. The Ares I-X vehicle had a number of on-board and ground based sensors that were available, including inertial measurement units, radar, air- data, and weather balloons. However, due to problems with calibrations and/or data, not all of the sensor data were used. The trajectory estimate was generated using an Iterative Extended Kalman Filter algorithm, which is an industry standard processing algorithm for filtering and estimation applications. This paper describes the methodology and results of the trajectory reconstruction process, including flight data preprocessing and input uncertainties, trajectory estimation algorithms, output transformations, and comparisons with preflight predictions.

  4. TRAC-PF1/MOD1: an advanced best-estimate computer program for pressurized water reactor thermal-hydraulic analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Liles, D.R.; Mahaffy, J.H.

    1986-07-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory is developing the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) to provide advanced best-estimate predictions of postulated accidents in light-water reactors. The TRAC-PF1/MOD1 program provides this capability for pressurized water reactors and for many thermal-hydraulic test facilities. The code features either a one- or a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and its associated internals, a two-fluid nonequilibrium hydrodynamics model with a noncondensable gas field and solute tracking, flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment, optional reflood tracking capability for bottom-flood and falling-film quench fronts, and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions. The stability-enhancing two-step (SETS) numerical algorithm is used in the one-dimensional hydrodynamics and permits this portion of the fluid dynamics to violate the material Courant condition. This technique permits large time steps and, hence, reduced running time for slow transients.

  5. TRAC-BF1/MOD1: An advanced best-estimate computer program for BWR accident analysis: User's guide

    SciTech Connect

    Rettig, W.H.; Wade, N.L. )

    1992-06-01

    The TRAC-BWR code development program at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory has developed versions of the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the public. The TRAC-BF1/MODI version of the computer code provides a best-estimate analysis capability for analyzing the full range of postulated accidents in boiling water reactor (BWR) systems and related facilities. This version provides a consistent and unified analysis capability for analyzing all areas of a large- or small-break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), beginning with the blowdown phase and continuing through heatup, reflood with quenching, and, finally, the refill phase of the accident. Also provided is a basic capability for the analysis of operational transients up to and including anticipated transients without scram (ATWS). The TRAC-BF1/MOD1 version produces results consistent with previous versions. Assessment calculations using the two TRAC-BFI versions show overall improvements in agreement with data and computation times as compared to earlier versions of the TRAC-BWR series of computer codes.

  6. TRAC-BF1/MOD1: An advanced best-estimate computer program for BWR accident analysis, Model description

    SciTech Connect

    Borkowski, J.A.; Wade, N.L.; Giles, M.M.; Rouhani, S.Z.; Shumway, R.W.; Singer, G.L.; Taylor, D.D.; Weaver, W.L. )

    1992-08-01

    The TRAC-BWR code development program at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory has developed versions of the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the public. The TRAC-BF1/MODl version of the computer code provides a best-estimate analysis capability for analyzing the full range of postulated accidents in boiling water reactor (BWR) systems and related facilities. This version provides a consistent and unified analysis capability for analyzing all areas of a large- or small-break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), beginning with the blowdown phase and continuing through heatup, reflood with quenching, and, finally, the refill phase of the accident. Also provided is a basic capability for the analysis of operational transients up to and including anticipated transients without scram (ATWS). The TRAC-BF1/MODI version produces results consistent with previous versions. Assessment calculations using the two TRAC-BF1 versions show overall improvements in agreement with data and computation times as compared to earlier versions of the TRAC-BWR series of computer codes.

  7. On the extension of modern best-estimate plus uncertainy methodologies to future fast reactor and advanced fuel licensing - initial evaluation of issues

    SciTech Connect

    Unal, Cetin; Mcclure, Patrick R

    2009-01-01

    precedence in the NRC. The method is generically referred to as a 'Best Estimate plus Uncertainty' approach (BE+U), since the goal of the methodology is to compare the model value (best estimate) plus any uncertainty to a figure of merit like cladding temperature. The challenges for extending the BE+U (1) method for fuel qualification for an Advanced Reactor Fuel are driven by: schedule, the need for data, the data sufficiency, the identification of important phenomenon, the process of validation (with focus on the multi-scale model), and the need to produce and extended best estimate plus uncertainty methodology. This paper examines these issues an offers up a proposed set of methods that extend the current BE+U methodology address most if not all of these challenges.

  8. Benchmarking and qualification of the NUFREQ-NPW code for best estimate prediction of multi-channel core stability margins

    SciTech Connect

    Taleyarkhan, R.; Lahey, R.T. Jr.; McFarlane, A.F.; Podowski, M.Z.

    1988-01-01

    The NUFREQ-NPW code was modified and set up at Westinghouse, USA for mixed fuel type multi-channel core-wide stability analysis. The resulting code, NUFREQ-NPW, allows for variable axial power profiles between channel groups and can handle mixed fuel types. Various models incorporated into NUFREQ-NPW were systematically compared against the Westinghouse channel stability analysis code MAZDA-NF, for which the mathematical model was developed, in an entirely different manner. Excellent agreement was obtained which verified the thermal-hydraulic modeling and coding aspects. Detailed comparisons were also performed against nuclear-coupled reactor core stability data. All thirteen Peach Bottom-2 EOC-2/3 low flow stability tests were simulated. A key aspect for code qualification involved the development of a physically based empirical algorithm to correct for the effect of core inlet flow development on subcooled boiling. Various other modeling assumptions were tested and sensitivity studies performed. Good agreement was obtained between NUFREQ-NPW predictions and data. Moreover, predictions were generally on the conservative side. The results of detailed direct comparisons with experimental data using the NUFREQ-NPW code; have demonstrated that BWR core stability margins are conservatively predicted, and all data trends are captured with good accuracy. The methodology is thus suitable for BWR design and licensing purposes. 11 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. TRAC-BF1/MOD1: An advanced best-estimate computer program for BWR accident analysis, Model description. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect

    Borkowski, J.A.; Wade, N.L.; Giles, M.M.; Rouhani, S.Z.; Shumway, R.W.; Singer, G.L.; Taylor, D.D.; Weaver, W.L.

    1992-08-01

    The TRAC-BWR code development program at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory has developed versions of the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the public. The TRAC-BF1/MODl version of the computer code provides a best-estimate analysis capability for analyzing the full range of postulated accidents in boiling water reactor (BWR) systems and related facilities. This version provides a consistent and unified analysis capability for analyzing all areas of a large- or small-break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), beginning with the blowdown phase and continuing through heatup, reflood with quenching, and, finally, the refill phase of the accident. Also provided is a basic capability for the analysis of operational transients up to and including anticipated transients without scram (ATWS). The TRAC-BF1/MODI version produces results consistent with previous versions. Assessment calculations using the two TRAC-BF1 versions show overall improvements in agreement with data and computation times as compared to earlier versions of the TRAC-BWR series of computer codes.

  10. TRAC-BF1/MOD1: An advanced best-estimate computer program for BWR accident analysis: User`s guide. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Rettig, W.H.; Wade, N.L.

    1992-06-01

    The TRAC-BWR code development program at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory has developed versions of the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the public. The TRAC-BF1/MODI version of the computer code provides a best-estimate analysis capability for analyzing the full range of postulated accidents in boiling water reactor (BWR) systems and related facilities. This version provides a consistent and unified analysis capability for analyzing all areas of a large- or small-break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), beginning with the blowdown phase and continuing through heatup, reflood with quenching, and, finally, the refill phase of the accident. Also provided is a basic capability for the analysis of operational transients up to and including anticipated transients without scram (ATWS). The TRAC-BF1/MOD1 version produces results consistent with previous versions. Assessment calculations using the two TRAC-BFI versions show overall improvements in agreement with data and computation times as compared to earlier versions of the TRAC-BWR series of computer codes.

  11. Best-Estimate Analysis PWR LOCA.

    2005-11-11

    Version: 00 TRAC‑PF1 performs best estimate analyses of loss of coolant accidents and other transients in pressurized light water reactors. The program can also be used to model a wide range of thermal hydraulic experiments in reduced scale facilities. Models employed include reflood, multi‑dimensional two‑phase flow, nonequilibrium thermodynamics, generalized heat transfer, and reactor kinetics. Automatic steady‑state and dump/restart capabilities are provided. The changes reported in TRACNEWS issues through Number 7 are incorporated in this release.more » TRAC-PF1 was developed on a CDC computer at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The PC version of TRAC‑PF1 was converted at CNEN in 1989 and has not been updated since that time. The NRC no longer supports the TRAC codes. They currently develop and maintain the TRACE code system, which is the TRAC/RELAP Advanced Computational Engine. TRACE is a modernized thermal-hydraulics code designed to consolidate the capabilities of NRC's 3 legacy safety codes - TRAC-P, TRAC-B and RELAP. This is NRC's flagship thermal-hydraulics analysis tool. See the website for more information http://www.nrccodes.com/.« less

  12. Aerosol Best Estimate Value-Added Product

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, C; Turner, D; Koontz, A; Chand, D; Sivaraman, C

    2012-07-19

    The objective of the Aerosol Best Estimate (AEROSOLBE) value-added product (VAP) is to provide vertical profiles of aerosol extinction, single scatter albedo, asymmetry parameter, and Angstroem exponents for the atmospheric column above the Central Facility at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. We expect that AEROSOLBE will provide nearly continuous estimates of aerosol optical properties under a range of conditions (clear, broken clouds, overcast clouds, etc.). The primary requirement of this VAP was to provide an aerosol data set as continuous as possible in both time and height for the Broadband Heating Rate Profile (BBHRP) VAP in order to provide a structure for the comprehensive assessment of our ability to model atmospheric radiative transfer for all conditions. Even though BBHRP has been completed, AEROSOLBE results are very valuable for environmental, atmospheric, and climate research.

  13. Advanced hydrologic prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Connelly, Brian A.; Braatz, Dean T.; Halquist, John B.; Deweese, Michael M.; Larson, Lee; Ingram, John J.

    1999-08-01

    As our Nation's population and infrastructure grow, natural disasters are becoming a greater threat to our society's stability. In an average year, inland flooding claims 133 lives and resulting property losses exceed 4.0 billion. Last year, 1997, these losses totaled 8.7 billion. Because of this blossoming threat, the National Weather Service (NWS) has requested funding within its 2000 budget to begin national implementation of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS). With this system in place the NWS will be able to utilize precipitation and climate predictions to provide extended probabilistic river forecasts for risk-based decisions. In addition to flood and drought mitigation benefits, extended river forecasts will benefit water resource managers in decision making regarding water supply, agriculture, navigation, hydropower, and ecosystems. It's estimated that AHPS, if implemented nationwide, would save lives and provide $677 million per year in economic benefits. AHPS is used currently on the Des Moines River basin in Iowa and will be implemented soon on the Minnesota River basin in Minnesota. Experience gained from user interaction is leading to refined and enhanced product formats and displays. This discussion will elaborate on the technical requirements associated with AHPS implementation, its enhanced products and informational displays, and further refinements based on customer feedback.

  14. Ares I-X Best Estimated Trajectory Analysis and Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karlgaard, Christopher D.; Beck, Roger E.; Starr, Brett R.; Derry, Stephen D.; Brandon, Jay; Olds, Aaron D.

    2011-01-01

    The Ares I-X trajectory reconstruction produced best estimated trajectories of the flight test vehicle ascent through stage separation, and of the first and upper stage entries after separation. The trajectory reconstruction process combines on-board, ground-based, and atmospheric measurements to produce the trajectory estimates. The Ares I-X vehicle had a number of on-board and ground based sensors that were available, including inertial measurement units, radar, air-data, and weather balloons. However, due to problems with calibrations and/or data, not all of the sensor data were used. The trajectory estimate was generated using an Iterative Extended Kalman Filter algorithm, which is an industry standard processing algorithm for filtering and estimation applications. This paper describes the methodology and results of the trajectory reconstruction process, including flight data preprocessing and input uncertainties, trajectory estimation algorithms, output transformations, and comparisons with preflight predictions.

  15. Predicting Epileptic Seizures in Advance

    PubMed Central

    Moghim, Negin; Corne, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epilepsy is the second most common neurological disorder, affecting 0.6–0.8% of the world's population. In this neurological disorder, abnormal activity of the brain causes seizures, the nature of which tend to be sudden. Antiepileptic Drugs (AEDs) are used as long-term therapeutic solutions that control the condition. Of those treated with AEDs, 35% become resistant to medication. The unpredictable nature of seizures poses risks for the individual with epilepsy. It is clearly desirable to find more effective ways of preventing seizures for such patients. The automatic detection of oncoming seizures, before their actual onset, can facilitate timely intervention and hence minimize these risks. In addition, advance prediction of seizures can enrich our understanding of the epileptic brain. In this study, drawing on the body of work behind automatic seizure detection and prediction from digitised Invasive Electroencephalography (EEG) data, a prediction algorithm, ASPPR (Advance Seizure Prediction via Pre-ictal Relabeling), is described. ASPPR facilitates the learning of predictive models targeted at recognizing patterns in EEG activity that are in a specific time window in advance of a seizure. It then exploits advanced machine learning coupled with the design and selection of appropriate features from EEG signals. Results, from evaluating ASPPR independently on 21 different patients, suggest that seizures for many patients can be predicted up to 20 minutes in advance of their onset. Compared to benchmark performance represented by a mean S1-Score (harmonic mean of Sensitivity and Specificity) of 90.6% for predicting seizure onset between 0 and 5 minutes in advance, ASPPR achieves mean S1-Scores of: 96.30% for prediction between 1 and 6 minutes in advance, 96.13% for prediction between 8 and 13 minutes in advance, 94.5% for prediction between 14 and 19 minutes in advance, and 94.2% for prediction between 20 and 25 minutes in advance. PMID:24911316

  16. The ARM Best Estimate 2-dimensional Gridded Surface

    SciTech Connect

    Xie,Shaocheng; Qi, Tang

    2015-06-15

    The ARM Best Estimate 2-dimensional Gridded Surface (ARMBE2DGRID) data set merges together key surface measurements at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) sites and interpolates the data to a regular 2D grid to facilitate data application. Data from the original site locations can be found in the ARM Best Estimate Station-based Surface (ARMBESTNS) data set.

  17. The Best Estimated Trajectory Analysis for Pad Abort One

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kutty, Prasad; Noonan, Meghan; Karlgaard, Christopher; Beck, Roger

    2011-01-01

    I. Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) objective: a) Produce reconstructed trajectory of the PA-1 flight to understand vehicle dynamics and aid other post flight analyses. b) Leverage all measurement sources taken of vehicle during flight to produce the most accurate estimate of vehicle trajectory. c) Generate trajectory reconstructions of the Crew Module (CM), Launch Abort System (LAS), and Forward Bay Cover (FBC). II. BET analysis was started immediately following the PA-1 mission and was completed in September, 2010 a) Quick look version of BET released 5/25/2010: initial repackaging of SIGI data. b) Preliminary version of BET released 7/6/2010: first blended solution using available sources of external measurements. c) Final version of BET released 9/1/2010: final blended solution using all available sources of data.

  18. Use of a Best Estimate Power Monitoring Tool to Maximize Power Plant Generation

    SciTech Connect

    Dziuba, Lindsey L.

    2006-07-01

    The Best Estimate Power Monitor (BEPM) is a tool that was developed to maximize nuclear power plant generation, while ensuring regulatory compliance in the face of venturi fouling, industry ultra-sonic flowmeter issues and other technical challenges. The BEPM uses ASME approved 'best estimate' methodology described in PTC 19.1-1985, 'Measurement Uncertainty', Section 3.8, 'Weighting Method'. The BEPM method utilizes many different and independent indicators of core thermal power and independently computes the core thermal power (CTP) from each parameter. The uncertainty of each measurement is used to weight the results of the best estimate computation of CTP such that those with lower uncertainties are weighted more heavily in the computed result. The independence of these measurements is used to minimize the uncertainty of the aggregate result, and the overall uncertainty can be much lower than the uncertainties of any of the individual measured parameters. Examples of the Balance of Plant parameters used in the BEPM are turbine first stage pressure, venturi feedwater flow, condensate flow, main steam flow, high pressure turbine exhaust pressure, low pressure turbine inlet pressure, the two highest pressure feedwater heater extraction pressures, and final feedwater temperature. The BEPM typically makes use of installed plant instrumentation that provide data to the plant computer. Therefore, little or no plant modification is required. In order to compute core thermal power from the independent indicators, a set of baseline data is used for comparison. These baseline conditions are taken from a day when confidence in the value of core thermal power is high (i.e., immediately post outage when venturi fouling is not an issue or from a formal tracer test). This provides the reference point on which to base the core thermal power calculations for each of the independent parameters. The BEPM is effective only at the upper end of the power range, where the independent

  19. Predicting Career Advancement with Structural Equation Modelling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heimler, Ronald; Rosenberg, Stuart; Morote, Elsa-Sofia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to use the authors' prior findings concerning basic employability skills in order to determine which skills best predict career advancement potential. Design/methodology/approach: Utilizing survey responses of human resource managers, the employability skills showing the largest relationships to career…

  20. Best Estimate Radiation Flux Value-Added Procedure. Algorithm Operational Details and Explanations

    SciTech Connect

    Shi, Y.; Long, C. N.

    2002-10-01

    This document describes some specifics of the algorithm for best estimate evaluation of radiation fluxes at Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility (CF). It uses the data available from the three co-located surface radiometer platforms at the SGP CF to automatically determine the best estimate of the irradiance measurements available. The Best Estimate Flux (BEFlux) value-added procedure (VAP) was previously named Best Estimate ShortWave (BESW) VAP, which included all of the broadband and spectral shortwave (SW) measurements for the SGP CF. In BESW, multiple measurements of the same quantities were handled simply by designating one as the primary measurement and using all others to merely fill in any gaps. Thus, this “BESW” is better termed “most continuous,” since no additional quality assessment was applied. We modified the algorithm in BESW to use the average of the closest two measurements as the best estimate when possible, if these measurements pass all quality assessment criteria. Furthermore, we included longwave (LW) fields in the best estimate evaluation to include all major components of the surface radiative energy budget, and renamed the VAP to Best Estimate Flux (BEFLUX1LONG).

  1. Best Estimate Radiation Flux Value-Added Procedure: Algorithm Operational Details and Explanations

    SciTech Connect

    Shi, Y; Long, CN

    2002-10-01

    This document describes some specifics of the algorithm for best estimate evaluation of radiation fluxes at Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility (CF). It uses the data available from the three co-located surface radiometer platforms at the SGP CF to automatically determine the best estimate of the irradiance measurements available. The Best Estimate Flux (BEFlux) value-added procedure (VAP) was previously named Best Estimate ShortWave (BESW) VAP, which included all of the broadband and spectral shortwave (SW) measurements for the SGP CF. In BESW, multiple measurements of the same quantities were handled simply by designating one as the primary measurement and using all others to merely fill in any gaps. Thus, this “BESW” is better termed “most continuous,” since no additional quality assessment was applied. We modified the algorithm in BESW to use the average of the closest two measurements as the best estimate when possible, if these measurements pass all quality assessment criteria. Furthermore, we included longwave (LW) fields in the best estimate evaluation to include all major components of the surface radiative energy budget, and renamed the VAP to Best Estimate Flux (BEFLUX1LONG).

  2. Predictive Dynamic Security Assessment through Advanced Computing

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Zhenyu; Diao, Ruisheng; Jin, Shuangshuang; Chen, Yousu

    2014-11-30

    Abstract— Traditional dynamic security assessment is limited by several factors and thus falls short in providing real-time information to be predictive for power system operation. These factors include the steady-state assumption of current operating points, static transfer limits, and low computational speed. This addresses these factors and frames predictive dynamic security assessment. The primary objective of predictive dynamic security assessment is to enhance the functionality and computational process of dynamic security assessment through the use of high-speed phasor measurements and the application of advanced computing technologies for faster-than-real-time simulation. This paper presents algorithms, computing platforms, and simulation frameworks that constitute the predictive dynamic security assessment capability. Examples of phasor application and fast computation for dynamic security assessment are included to demonstrate the feasibility and speed enhancement for real-time applications.

  3. Predictive markers in advanced renal cell carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Michaelson, M Dror; Stadler, Walter M

    2013-08-01

    Predictive markers of response to therapy are increasingly important in advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) due to the proliferation of treatment options in recent years. Different types of potential predictive markers may include clinical, toxicity-based, serum, tissue, and radiologic biomarkers. Clinical factors are commonly used in overall prognostic models of RCC but have limited utility in predicting response to therapy. Correlation between development of particular toxicities and response to therapy has been noted, such as the correlation between hypertension and response to angiogenesis-targeted therapy. Serum and tissue biomarkers will be covered in detail elsewhere, but factors such as serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and circulating cytokines show promise in this regard. Finally, baseline or early treatment radiology studies may have predictive ability for longer term efficacy, with most studies to date focusing on functional imaging modalities such as positron emission tomography (PET) scans, dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and DCE ultrasound (US). The ultimate goal of developing predictive biomarkers is to enable rational and personalized treatment strategies for patients with advanced RCC. PMID:23972709

  4. Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem

  5. Stream temperature estimated in situ from thermal-infrared images: best estimate and uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iezzi, F.; Todisco, M. T.

    2015-11-01

    The paper aims to show a technique to estimate in situ the stream temperature from thermal-infrared images deepening its best estimate and uncertainty. Stream temperature is an important indicator of water quality and nowadays its assessment is important particularly for thermal pollution monitoring in water bodies. Stream temperature changes are especially due to the anthropogenic heat input from urban wastewater and from water used as a coolant by power plants and industrial manufacturers. The stream temperatures assessment using ordinary techniques (e.g. appropriate thermometers) is limited by sparse sampling in space due to a spatial discretization necessarily punctual. Latest and most advanced techniques assess the stream temperature using thermal-infrared remote sensing based on thermal imagers placed usually on aircrafts or using satellite images. These techniques assess only the surface water temperature and they are suitable to detect the temperature of vast water bodies but do not allow a detailed and precise surface water temperature assessment in limited areas of the water body. The technique shown in this research is based on the assessment of thermal-infrared images obtained in situ via portable thermal imager. As in all thermographic techniques, also in this technique, it is possible to estimate only the surface water temperature. A stream with the presence of a discharge of urban wastewater is proposed as case study to validate the technique and to show its application limits. Since the technique analyzes limited areas in extension of the water body, it allows a detailed and precise assessment of the water temperature. In general, the punctual and average stream temperatures are respectively uncorrected and corrected. An appropriate statistical method that minimizes the errors in the average stream temperature is proposed. The correct measurement of this temperature through the assessment of thermal- infrared images obtained in situ via portable

  6. The ARM Best Estimate Station-based Surface (ARMBESTNS) Data set

    DOE Data Explorer

    Qi,Tang; Xie,Shaocheng

    2015-08-06

    The ARM Best Estimate Station-based Surface (ARMBESTNS) data set merges together key surface measurements from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) sites. It is a twin data product of the ARM Best Estimate 2-dimensional Gridded Surface (ARMBE2DGRID) data set. Unlike the 2DGRID data set, the STNS data are reported at the original site locations and show the original information, except for the interpolation over time. Therefore, users have the flexibility to process the data with the approach more suitable for their applications.

  7. Best-estimate plus uncertainty thermal-hydraulic stability analysis of BWRs using TRACG code

    SciTech Connect

    Vedovi, J.; Yang, J.; Klebanov, L.; Vreeland, D. G.; Zino, J. F.

    2012-07-01

    on the Minimum Critical Power Ratio (MCPR) performance. The purpose of the DSS-CD TRACG analysis is to confirm the inherent MCPR margin afforded by the solution design. This paper presents the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) DSS-CD TRACG methodology and its application to BWR Thermal-Hydraulic (T-H) stability analyses. The statistical Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology (defined in NUREG/CR-5249) is used to calculate the MCPR uncertainty. The TRACG simulation includes a full core individual bundle model in which each fuel bundle is modeled as an individual T-H channel. The complete CSAU analysis of full core individual bundle model is an innovative solution represents the state-of-the-art stability analysis of BWRs and is the first ever full statistical analysis for stability safety analyses. The adoption of BEPU methodologies for stability analyses advances the understanding of the associated physical phenomena and maintains the safety of reactor plant operation in expanded operation domain with up-rated power. (authors)

  8. Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Best Estimate (CSSEFARMBE)

    SciTech Connect

    Riihimaki, Laura D.; Gaustad, Krista L.; McFarlane, Sally A.

    2012-09-28

    The Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) project is working to improve the representation of the hydrological cycle in global climate models, critical information necessary for decision-makers to respond appropriately to predictions of future climate. In order to accomplish this objective, CSSEF is building testbeds to implement uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques to objectively calibrate and diagnose climate model parameterizations and predictions with respect to local, process-scale observations. In order to quantify the agreement between models and observations accurately, uncertainty estimates on these observations are needed. The DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program takes atmospheric and climate related measurements at three permanent locations worldwide. The ARM VAP called the ARM Best Estimate (ARMBE) [Xie et al., 2010] collects a subset of ARM observations, performs quality control checks, averages them to one hour temporal resolution, and puts them in a standard format for ease of use by climate modelers. ARMBE has been widely used by the climate modeling community as a summary product of many of the ARM observations. However, the ARMBE product does not include uncertainty estimates on the data values. Thus, to meet the objectives of the CSSEF project and enable better use of this data with UQ techniques, we created the CSSEFARMBE data set. Only a subset of the variables contained in ARMBE is included in CSSEFARMBE. Currently only surface meteorological observations are included, though this may be expanded to include other variables in the future. The CSSEFARMBE VAP is produced for all extended facilities at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site that contain surface meteorological equipment. This extension of the ARMBE data set to multiple facilities at SGP allows for better comparison between model grid boxes and the ARM point observations. In the future, CSSEFARMBE may also be created for other ARM sites. As

  9. Techniques and Methods used to determine the Best Estimate of Radiation Fluxes at SGP Central Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Shi, Yan; Long, Charles N.

    2002-07-30

    The DOE ARM Program operates three independent surface radiation measurement systems co-located within a few meters at the Southern Great Plains Central Facility (SGP CF) site. This redundancy affords a unique opportunity for producing a high quality estimate of the actual continuous irradiance record. The Best Estimate Radiation Flux Value Added Product (VAP) currently being developed for ARM (beflux1long VAP) is attempting to determine the best estimate value for each radiation field from these multiple measurements as an operational product. In the development of this VAP, it is necessary to assess the nominal long-term unattended operational accuracy (as opposed to accuracy assessments based on calibrations or short term attended operation) to screen the data for quality assessment. We will present statistical results of this assessment, including our estimates of nominal operational accuracies, and the amount of data that pass the resultant data quality testing. Central to data quality assessment is the notion that having three pieces of information allows one not only to detect measurement problems, but to identify which of the three similar measurements is likely to be in error. We will discuss the techniques we have developed to use similar, but often differing, measurement data as comparison tools for operationally detecting measurement errors. We will also present statistical analyses of the resultant best estimate radiation climatology for the SGP CF.

  10. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site atmospheric state best estimates for Atmospheric Infrared Sounder temperature and water vapor retrieval validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobin, David C.; Revercomb, Henry E.; Knuteson, Robert O.; Lesht, Barry M.; Strow, L. Larrabee; Hannon, Scott E.; Feltz, Wayne F.; Moy, Leslie A.; Fetzer, Eric J.; Cress, Ted S.

    2006-05-01

    The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is the first of a new generation of advanced satellite-based atmospheric sounders with the capability of obtaining high-vertical resolution profiles of temperature and water vapor. The high-accuracy retrieval goals of AIRS (e.g., 1 K RMS in 1 km layers below 100 mbar for air temperature, 10% RMS in 2 km layers below 100 mbar for water vapor concentration), combined with the large temporal and spatial variability of the atmosphere and difficulties in making accurate measurements of the atmospheric state, necessitate careful and detailed validation using well-characterized ground-based sites. As part of ongoing AIRS Science Team efforts and a collaborative effort between the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) project and the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, data from various ARM and other observations are used to create best estimates of the atmospheric state at the Aqua overpass times. The resulting validation data set is an ensemble of temperature and water vapor profiles created from radiosondes launched at the approximate Aqua overpass times, interpolated to the exact overpass time using time continuous ground-based profiles, adjusted to account for spatial gradients within the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) footprints, and supplemented with limited cloud observations. Estimates of the spectral surface infrared emissivity and local skin temperatures are also constructed. Relying on the developed ARM infrastructure and previous and ongoing characterization studies of the ARM measurements, the data set provides a good combination of statistics and accuracy which is essential for assessment of the advanced sounder products. Combined with the collocated AIRS observations, the products are being used to study observed minus calculated AIRS spectra, aimed at evaluation of the AIRS forward radiative transfer model, AIRS observed radiances, and temperature and water vapor profile

  11. Advanced technology wind shear prediction system evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gering, Greg

    1992-01-01

    The program overviews: (1) American Airline (AA)/Turbulence Prediction Systems (TPS), which have installed forward looking infrared predictive windshear system on 3 MD-80 aircraft; (2) AA/TPS AWAS III evaluation, which is a joint effort and is installed in the noise landing gear (NLG) area and a data recorder installed in the E/E compartment.

  12. Radiatively Important Parameters Best Estimate (RIPBE): An ARM Value-Added Product

    SciTech Connect

    McFarlane, S; Shippert, T; Mather, J

    2011-06-30

    The Radiatively Important Parameters Best Estimate (RIPBE) VAP was developed to create a complete set of clearly identified set of parameters on a uniform vertical and temporal grid to use as input to a radiative transfer model. One of the main drivers for RIPBE was as input to the Broadband Heating Rate Profile (BBHRP) VAP, but we also envision using RIPBE files for user-run radiative transfer codes, as part of cloud/aerosol retrieval testbeds, and as input to averaged datastreams for model evaluation.

  13. Substrate Deformation Predicts Neuronal Growth Cone Advance

    PubMed Central

    Athamneh, Ahmad I.M.; Cartagena-Rivera, Alexander X.; Raman, Arvind; Suter, Daniel M.

    2015-01-01

    Although pulling forces have been observed in axonal growth for several decades, their underlying mechanisms, absolute magnitudes, and exact roles are not well understood. In this study, using two different experimental approaches, we quantified retrograde traction force in Aplysia californica neuronal growth cones as they develop over time in response to a new adhesion substrate. In the first approach, we developed a novel method, to our knowledge, for measuring traction forces using an atomic force microscope (AFM) with a cantilever that was modified with an Aplysia cell adhesion molecule (apCAM)-coated microbead. In the second approach, we used force-calibrated glass microneedles coated with apCAM ligands to guide growth cone advance. The traction force exerted by the growth cone was measured by monitoring the microneedle deflection using an optical microscope. Both approaches showed that Aplysia growth cones can develop traction forces in the 100–102 nN range during adhesion-mediated advance. Moreover, our results suggest that the level of traction force is directly correlated to the stiffness of the microneedle, which is consistent with a reinforcement mechanism previously observed in other cell types. Interestingly, the absolute level of traction force did not correlate with growth cone advance toward the adhesion site, but the amount of microneedle deflection did. In cases of adhesion-mediated growth cone advance, the mean needle deflection was 1.05 ± 0.07 μm. By contrast, the mean deflection was significantly lower (0.48 ± 0.06 μm) when the growth cones did not advance. Our data support a hypothesis that adhesion complexes, which can undergo micron-scale elastic deformation, regulate the coupling between the retrogradely flowing actin cytoskeleton and apCAM substrates, stimulating growth cone advance if sufficiently abundant. PMID:26445437

  14. Last menstrual period provides the best estimate of gestation length for women in rural Guatemala.

    PubMed

    Neufeld, Lynnette M; Haas, Jere D; Grajéda, Ruben; Martorell, Reynaldo

    2006-07-01

    The accurate estimation of gestational age in field studies in rural areas of developing countries continues to present difficulties for researchers. Our objective was to determine the best method for gestational age estimation in rural Guatemala. Women of childbearing age from four communities in rural Guatemala were invited to participate in a longitudinal study. Gestational age at birth was determined by an early second trimester measure of biparietal diameter, last menstrual period (LMP), the Capurro neonatal examination and symphysis-fundus height (SFH) for 171 women-infant pairs. Regression modelling was used to determine which method provided the best estimate of gestational age using ultrasound as the reference. Gestational age estimated by LMP was within +/-14 days of the ultrasound estimate for 94% of the sample. LMP-estimated gestational age explained 46% of the variance in gestational age estimated by ultrasound whereas the neonatal examination explained only 20%. The results of this study suggest that, when trained field personnel assist women to recall their date of LMP, this date provides the best estimate of gestational age. SFH measured during the second trimester may provide a reasonable alternative when LMP is unavailable. PMID:16879501

  15. Predicting impact factor one year in advance.

    PubMed

    Ketcham, Catherine M

    2007-06-01

    The first impact factor (IF) to reflect the sole efforts of a new editorial team occurs 4 years into what is usually a 5-year editorship, owing to the lag times of: paper accrual and publication, accumulation of citations in derivative literature, and compiling of such citations by the Thomson ISI Web of Knowledge service. Through weekly collection of citation data from the Web of Science over the past 2 years, we now demonstrate that the evolution of IF can be tracked weekly over the course of a calendar year, enabling prediction of the next year's IF beginning at the middle of the previous year. The methodology used to track the developing IF for Lab Invest is presented in this study and a prediction made for the 2006 IF, along with IF predictions for other general pathology journals (American Journal of Pathology, Journal of Pathology, Modern Pathology, American Journal of Surgical Pathology, and Human Pathology). Despite the fact that the 2006 IF for Lab Invest will not be issued until June 2007, it became apparent as early as July 2006 that the Lab Invest IF would be greatly improved over 2004 and 2005 by a predicted 0.5 units. However, as important as IF can be to a journal, it is vital not to let IF considerations influence every aspect of the editors' decisions. Rather, the significance of early prediction lies in earlier validation of editorial policies for journal management as a whole, and reassurance that the philosophy for journal operations is on track.

  16. Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bao, Han P.; Samareh, J. A.; Weston, R. P.

    2002-01-01

    For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This paper outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are soared according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this paper is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool.

  17. Code System for Best-Estimate Analysis of LOCA in BWR.

    2001-07-23

    Version 00 TRAC-BD1 performs best estimate analyses of loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA) and other transients in boiling water reactors (BWRs). The program provides LOCA analysis capability for BWRs and for many BWR-related thermal-hydraulic experimental facilities. The program features a three-dimensional treatment of the BWR pressure vessel, a detailed model of a BWR fuel bundle including multi-rod, multi-bundle, radiation heat transfer, and leakage path modeling capability; flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment; reflood tracking capability both for falling filmsmore » and bottom flood quench fronts; and consistent treatment of the entire accident sequence. Dump/restart capabilities are also provided.« less

  18. Best Estimate Code System to Calculate Thermal & Hydraulic Phenomena in a Nuclear Reactor or Related System.

    1999-05-19

    Version 00 RELAP4/MOD7/101 performs best estimate analyses of nuclear reactors or related systems undergoing a transient. Transient thermal-hydraulic, two-phase phenomena are calculated from formulations of one-dimensional, homogeneous, equilibrium conservation equations for water mass, momentum, and energy. Heat structures are modeled using a transient one-dimensional heat conduction solution that is coupled to the fluid through heat transfer relations. Various explicit models are used to calculate nonhomogeneous, nonequilibrium behavior including a phase separation model, a vertical slipmore » model, and a nonequilibrium model. Other models are used to represent critical flow, reactor kinetics, pressurized water reactor reflood behavior, nuclear fuel rod swelling and blockage, and components such as pumps, valves, and accumulators.« less

  19. Radiatively important parameters best estimate (RIPBE) value-added product (VAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Shippert,T.; Jensen,M.; McFarlane, S.; Mather, J.; Flynn, C.; Mlawer, E.; Delamere, J.; Oreopoulos, L.; Turner, D.; Xie, S.

    2010-03-15

    Currently, to calculate radiative heating rate profiles for the Broadband Heating Rate Profile (BBHRP) product, radiatively important parameters (water vapor, ozone, surface albedo, aerosol properties, and cloud properties) from multiple VAPs and datastreams are combined into input text files that are then used to run the RRTM radiative transfer codes. These input parameters have different temporal and spatial scales and are difficult to extract from the text files to be used for other purposes such as running other radiative transfer codes, analyzing results, or error tracking. The purpose of the Radiatively Important Parameters Best Estimate (RIPBE) VAP is to improve this process by creating a clearly identified set of inputs for BBHRP (and other radiation codes) on a uniform vertical and temporal grid. This process will decouple the input/output portion of the BBHRP from the core physics (the RRTM radiative transfer model) and will add error tracking and version information to the input data set. Critical parameters (which must exist for the radiation code to be run) will be designated; for other parameters, climatological or fixed values will be used when the preferred values are missing. This should increase the number of cases for which radiative transfer calculations can be run. In all cases, flags will clearly identify the source for each parameter. RIPBE will serve multiple functions: (1) it will provide a clearly identifiable set of inputs for BBHRP, (2) it will facilitate the use of BBHRP as a retrieval and radiation code development testbed by providing a vehicle for easily extracting and swapping input parameters needed to conduct radiative transfer calculations, and (3) it will be a complement to the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) VAP and will provide a significantly expanded set of parameters for model evaluation in a showcase data set form. At the ASR meeting, we will present examples and evaluation of the initial RIPBE dataset at SGP.

  20. Predicting Malignancy in Thyroid Nodules: Molecular Advances

    PubMed Central

    Melck, Adrienne L.; Yip, Linwah

    2016-01-01

    Over the last several years, a clearer understanding of the genetic alterations underlying thyroid carcinogenesis has developed. This knowledge can be utilized to tackle one of the greatest challenges facing thyroidologists: management of the indeterminate thyroid nodule. Despite the accuracy of fine needle aspiration cytology, many patients undergo invasive surgery in order to determine if a follicular or Hurthle cell neoplasm is malignant, and better diagnostic tools are required. A number of biomarkers have recently been studied and show promise in this setting. In particular, BRAF, RAS, PAX8-PPARγ, microRNAs and loss of heterozygosity have each been demonstrated as useful molecular tools for predicting malignancy and can thereby guide decisions regarding surgical management of nodular thyroid disease. This review summarizes the current literature surrounding each of these markers and highlights our institution’s prospective analysis of these markers and their subsequent incorporation into our management algorithms for thyroid nodules. PMID:21818817

  1. Advances in tilt rotor noise prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    George, A. R.; Coffen, C. D.; Ringler, T. D.

    1992-01-01

    The two most serious tilt rotor external noise problems, hover noise and blade-vortex interaction noise, are studied. The results of flow visualization and inflow velocity measurements document a complex, recirculating highly unsteady and turbulent flow due to the rotor-wing-body interactions characteristic of tilt rotors. The wing under the rotor is found to obstruct the inflow, causing a deficit in the inflow velocities over the inboard region of the rotor. Discrete frequency harmonic thickness and loading noise mechanisms in hover are examined by first modeling tilt rotor hover aerodynamics and then applying various noise prediction methods using the WOPWOP code. The analysis indicates that the partial ground plane created by the wing below the rotor results in a primary sound source for hover.

  2. Advances in tilt rotor noise prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    George, A. R.; Coffen, C. D.; Ringler, T. D.

    The two most serious tilt rotor external noise problems, hover noise and blade-vortex interaction noise, are studied. The results of flow visualization and inflow velocity measurements document a complex, recirculating highly unsteady and turbulent flow due to the rotor-wing-body interactions characteristic of tilt rotors. The wing under the rotor is found to obstruct the inflow, causing a deficit in the inflow velocities over the inboard region of the rotor. Discrete frequency harmonic thickness and loading noise mechanisms in hover are examined by first modeling tilt rotor hover aerodynamics and then applying various noise prediction methods using the WOPWOP code. The analysis indicates that the partial ground plane created by the wing below the rotor results in a primary sound source for hover.

  3. A Primer In Advanced Fatigue Life Prediction Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.

    2000-01-01

    Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelop is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelop as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

  4. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data - A new data product for climate modelers

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, Shaocheng; McCoy, Renata; Klein, Stephen A.; Cederwall, Richard T.; Wiscombe, Warren J.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Gaustad, Krista L.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Hall, Stefanie; Jensen, Michael; Johnson, Karen L.; Lin, Yanluan; Long, Charles N.; Mather, James H.; McCord, Raymond A.; McFarlane, Sally A.; Palanisamy, Giriprakash; Shi, Yan; Turner, David D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of a new data product, named the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) dataset, developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program in order to better serve the need of climate model developers and encourage greater use of ARM data by modelers. The CMBE dataset contains those quantities that are often used in model evaluation and reflect unique ARM measurements of clouds and radiation (e.g., cloud occurrence, liquid water path, and surface radiative fluxes) from the highest quality data that ARM has for many years. The data are averaged over one hour period, which is comparable to a typical temporal resolution used in climate model output. They are currently available at five ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF) sites located at the Southern Great Plains, North Slope of Alaska, and Tropic Western Pacific, and can be obtained from the ACRF data archive. The long-term continuous ARM data provide invaluable information to improve our understanding of the interaction between clouds and radiation and a solid observational basis for model validation and improvement. This paper shows some examples to demonstrate its unique values in studies of cloud processes, climate variability and change, and climate modeling. Plans for future enhancements of the CMBE product are also discussed.

  5. Raman Lidar Profiles Best Estimate Value-Added Product Technical Report

    SciTech Connect

    Newson, R

    2012-01-18

    The ARM Raman lidars are semi-autonomous ground-based systems that transmit at a wavelength of 355 nm with 300 mJ, {approx}5 ns pulses, and a pulse repetition frequency of 30Hz. Signals from the various detection channels are processed to produce time- and height-resolved estimates of several geophysical quantities, such as water vapor mixing ratio, relative humidity, aerosol scattering ratio, backscatter, optical depth, extinction, and depolarization ratio. Data processing is currently handled by a suite of six value-added product (VAP) processes. Collectively, these processes are known as the Raman Lidar Profiles VAP (RLPROF). The top-level best-estimate (BE) VAP process was introduced in order to bring together the most relevant information from the intermediate-level VAPs. As such, the BE process represents the final stage in data processing for the Raman lidar. Its principal function is to extract the primary variables from each of the intermediate-level VAPs, perform additional quality control, and combine all of this information into a single output file for the end-user. The focus of this document is to describe the processing performed by the BE VAP process.

  6. Orion Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) Best Estimated Trajectory Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holt, Greg N.; Brown, Aaron

    2016-01-01

    The Orion Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) mission successfully flew on Dec 5, 2014 atop a Delta IV Heavy launch vehicle. The goal of Orions maiden flight was to stress the system by placing an uncrewed vehicle on a high-energy trajectory replicating conditions similar to those that would be experienced when returning from an asteroid or a lunar mission. The Orion navigation team combined all trajectory data from the mission into a Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) product. There were significant challenges in data reconstruction and many lessons were learned for future missions. The team used an estimation filter incorporating radar tracking, onboard sensors (Global Positioning System and Inertial Measurement Unit), and day-of-flight weather balloons to evaluate the true trajectory flown by Orion. Data was published for the entire Orion EFT-1 flight, plus objects jettisoned during entry such as the Forward Bay Cover. The BET customers include approximately 20 disciplines within Orion who will use the information for evaluating vehicle performance and influencing future design decisions.

  7. Scalable three-dimensional thermal-hydraulic best-estimate code BAGIRA

    SciTech Connect

    Vasenin, V. A.; Krivchikov, M. A.; Kroshilin, V. E.; Kroshilin, A. E.; Roganov, V. A.

    2012-07-01

    The three-dimensional thermal-hydraulic best-estimate code BAGIRA for modeling of multi-phase flows was developed without any artificial physical assumptions or simplifications. The mathematical model is based on numerical approximations of exact three-dimensional equations, including effective multi-dimensional models for turbulent heat and mass transfer. With use of BAGIRA All-Russian Scientific Research Inst. of Nuclear Power Plants (VNIIAES) has developed a full-scope and analytical simulators using BAGIRA for a number of power plants with VVER-1000 and RBMK type design, which are being used in Kalinin, Kursk, Smolensk, Chernobyl, and Bilibino NPPs. The comparison of calculated and experimental results shows that BAGIRA can successfully reproduce the most important processes observed in experiments. BAGIRA is implemented in FORTRAN. It is a relatively complicated code that tends to decompose task by aspects. Such a style is welcoming for extensions, which can be added without code redesign. We would like to present an aspect-oriented mix-in approach for BAGIRA code extension. It allows to make it scalable in number of directions leaving original code base untouched. It is possible to add new effects/units, and even to produce a supercomputer version of the code. The last is a key point today due to availability of low-cost compact supercomputers, which makes building compact NPP simulators possible. (authors)

  8. Peach Bottom 2 Turbine Trip Simulation Using TRAC-BF1/COS3D, a Best-Estimate Coupled 3-D Core and Thermal-Hydraulic Code System

    SciTech Connect

    Ui, Atsushi; Miyaji, Takamasa

    2004-10-15

    The best-estimate coupled three-dimensional (3-D) core and thermal-hydraulic code system TRAC-BF1/COS3D has been developed. COS3D, based on a modified one-group neutronic model, is a 3-D core simulator used for licensing analyses and core management of commercial boiling water reactor (BWR) plants in Japan. TRAC-BF1 is a plant simulator based on a two-fluid model. TRAC-BF1/COS3D is a coupled system of both codes, which are connected using a parallel computing tool. This code system was applied to the OECD/NRC BWR Turbine Trip Benchmark. Since the two-group cross-section tables are provided by the benchmark team, COS3D was modified to apply to this specification. Three best-estimate scenarios and four hypothetical scenarios were calculated using this code system. In the best-estimate scenario, the predicted core power with TRAC-BF1/COS3D is slightly underestimated compared with the measured data. The reason seems to be a slight difference in the core boundary conditions, that is, pressure changes and the core inlet flow distribution, because the peak in this analysis is sensitive to them. However, the results of this benchmark analysis show that TRAC-BF1/COS3D gives good precision for the prediction of the actual BWR transient behavior on the whole. Furthermore, the results with the modified one-group model and the two-group model were compared to verify the application of the modified one-group model to this benchmark. This comparison shows that the results of the modified one-group model are appropriate and sufficiently precise.

  9. Advanced propeller noise prediction in the time domain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farassat, F.; Dunn, M. H.; Spence, P. L.

    1992-01-01

    The time domain code ASSPIN gives acousticians a powerful technique of advanced propeller noise prediction. Except for nonlinear effects, the code uses exact solutions of the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equation with exact blade geometry and kinematics. By including nonaxial inflow, periodic loading noise, and adaptive time steps to accelerate computer execution, the development of this code becomes complete.

  10. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, A New Data Product for Climate Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, Shaocheng; McCoy, Renata B.; Klein, Stephen A.; Cederwall, Richard T.; Wiscombe, Warren J.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Gaustad, Krista L.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Shamblin, Stefanie H; Jensen, Michael P.; Johnson, Karen L.; Lin, Yanluan; Long, Charles N.; Mather, James H.; McCord, Raymond A; McFarlane, Sally A.; Palanisamy, Giri; Shi, Yan; Turner, David D.

    2010-01-01

    can hamper the use of ACRF data by the climate community. To make ACRF data better serve the needs of climate studies and model development, ARM has developed a data product specifically tailored for use by the climate community. The new data product, named the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) dataset, assembles those quantities that are both well observed by ACRF over many years and are often used in model evaluation into one single dataset. The CMBE product consists of hourly averages and thus has temporal resolution comparable to a typical resolution used in climate model output. It also includes standard deviations within the averaged hour and quality control flags for the selected quantities to indicate the temporal variability and data quality. Since its initial release in February 2008, the new data product has quickly drawn the attention of the climate modeling community. It is being used for model evaluation by two major U.S. climate modeling centers, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of CMBE data and a few examples that demonstrate the potential value of CMBE data for climate modeling and in studies of cloud processes and climate variability and change.

  11. Predicting the acceptance of advanced rider assistance systems.

    PubMed

    Huth, Véronique; Gelau, Christhard

    2013-01-01

    The strong prevalence of human error as a crash causation factor in motorcycle accidents calls for countermeasures that help tackling this issue. Advanced rider assistance systems pursue this goal, providing the riders with support and thus contributing to the prevention of crashes. However, the systems can only enhance riding safety if the riders use them. For this reason, acceptance is a decisive aspect to be considered in the development process of such systems. In order to be able to improve behavioural acceptance, the factors that influence the intention to use the system need to be identified. This paper examines the particularities of motorcycle riding and the characteristics of this user group that should be considered when predicting the acceptance of advanced rider assistance systems. Founded on theories predicting behavioural intention, the acceptance of technologies and the acceptance of driver support systems, a model on the acceptance of advanced rider assistance systems is proposed, including the perceived safety when riding without support, the interface design and the social norm as determinants of the usage intention. Since actual usage cannot be measured in the development stage of the systems, the willingness to have the system installed on the own motorcycle and the willingness to pay for the system are analyzed, constituting relevant conditions that allow for actual usage at a later stage. Its validation with the results from user tests on four advanced rider assistance systems allows confirming the social norm and the interface design as powerful predictors of the acceptance of ARAS, while the extent of perceived safety when riding without support did not have any predictive value in the present study.

  12. Best Estimate Method vs Evaluation Method: a comparison of two techniques in evaluating seismic analysis and design

    SciTech Connect

    Bumpus, S.E.; Johnson, J.J.; Smith, P.D.

    1980-05-01

    The concept of how two techniques, Best Estimate Method and Evaluation Method, may be applied to the traditional seismic analysis and design of a nuclear power plant is introduced. Only the four links of the seismic analysis and design methodology chain (SMC) - seismic input, soil-structure interaction, major structural response, and subsystem response - are considered. The objective is to evaluate the compounding of conservatisms in the seismic analysis and design of nuclear power plants, to provide guidance for judgments in the SMC, and to concentrate the evaluation on that part of the seismic analysis and design which is familiar to the engineering community. An example applies the effects of three-dimensional excitations on a model of a nuclear power plant structure. The example demonstrates how conservatisms accrue by coupling two links in the SMC and comparing those results to the effects of one link alone. The utility of employing the Best Estimate Method vs the Evaluation Method is also demonstrated.

  13. Final STS-11 (41-B) best estimate trajectory products: Development and results from the first Cape landing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, G. M.; Mcconnell, J. G.; Findlay, J. T.; Heck, M. L.; Henry, M. W.

    1984-01-01

    The STS-11 (41-B) postflight data processing is completed and the results published. The final reconstructed entry trajectory is presented. The various atmospheric sources available for this flight are discussed. Aerodynamic Best Estimate of Trajectory BET generation and plots from this file are presented. A definition of the major maneuvers effected is given. Physical constants, including spacecraft mass properties; final residuals from the reconstruction process; trajectory parameter listings; and an archival section are included.

  14. 76 FR 52954 - Workshop: Advancing Research on Mixtures; New Perspectives and Approaches for Predicting Adverse...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-24

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Workshop: Advancing Research on Mixtures; New Perspectives and Approaches for Predicting... ``Advancing Research on Mixtures: New Perspectives and Approaches for Predicting Adverse Human Health...

  15. Predicting binary merger event rates for advanced LIGO/Virgo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holz, Daniel; Belczynski, Chris; O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Bulik, Tomek; LIGO Collaboration

    2016-03-01

    We discuss estimates of the rates of mergers of binary systems composed of neutron stars and/or stellar mass black holes. We use the StarTrack population synthesis code, and make predictions for the detection rate of compact binary coalescences with the advanced LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave detectors. Because these instruments are sensitive to massive (M > 20M⊙) stellar-mass binary black holes mergers out to high redshift (z > 1), we discuss the cosmological effects which must be taken into account when calculating LIGO detection rates, including a generalization of the calculation of the ``peanut factor'' and the sensitive time-volume.

  16. ASRM radiation and flowfield prediction status. [Advanced Solid Rocket Motor plume radiation prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reardon, J. E.; Everson, J.; Smith, S. D.; Sulyma, P. R.

    1991-01-01

    Existing and proposed methods for the prediction of plume radiation are discussed in terms of their application to the NASA Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM) and Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) projects. Extrapolations of the Solid Rocket Motor (SRM) are discussed with respect to preliminary predictions of the primary and secondary radiation environments. The methodology for radiation and initial plume property predictions are set forth, including a new code for scattering media and independent secondary source models based on flight data. The Monte Carlo code employs a reverse-evaluation approach which traces rays back to their point of absorption in the plume. The SRM sea-level plume model is modified to account for the increased radiation in the ASRM plume due to the ASRM's propellant chemistry. The ASRM cycle-1 environment predictions are shown to identify a potential reason for the shutdown spike identified with pre-SRM staging.

  17. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents recent thermal model results of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG). The three-dimensional (3D) ASRG thermal power model was built using the Thermal Desktop(trademark) thermal analyzer. The model was correlated with ASRG engineering unit test data and ASRG flight unit predictions from Lockheed Martin's (LM's) I-deas(trademark) TMG thermal model. The auxiliary cooling system (ACS) of the ASRG is also included in the ASRG thermal model. The ACS is designed to remove waste heat from the ASRG so that it can be used to heat spacecraft components. The performance of the ACS is reported under nominal conditions and during a Venus flyby scenario. The results for the nominal case are validated with data from Lockheed Martin. Transient thermal analysis results of ASRG for a Venus flyby with a representative trajectory are also presented. In addition, model results of an ASRG mounted on a Cassini-like spacecraft with a sunshade are presented to show a way to mitigate the high temperatures of a Venus flyby. It was predicted that the sunshade can lower the temperature of the ASRG alternator by 20 C for the representative Venus flyby trajectory. The 3D model also was modified to predict generator performance after a single Advanced Stirling Convertor failure. The geometry of the Microtherm HT insulation block on the outboard side was modified to match deformation and shrinkage observed during testing of a prototypic ASRG test fixture by LM. Test conditions and test data were used to correlate the model by adjusting the thermal conductivity of the deformed insulation to match the post-heat-dump steady state temperatures. Results for these conditions showed that the performance of the still-functioning inboard ACS was unaffected.

  18. The Italian experience on T/H best estimate codes: Achievements and perspectives

    SciTech Connect

    Alemberti, A.; D`Auria, F.; Fiorino, E.

    1997-07-01

    Themalhydraulic system codes are complex tools developed to simulate the power plants behavior during off-normal conditions. Among the objectives of the code calculations the evaluation of safety margins, the operator training, the optimization of the plant design and of the emergency operating procedures, are mostly considered in the field of the nuclear safety. The first generation of codes was developed in the United States at the end of `60s. Since that time, different research groups all over the world started the development of their own codes. At the beginning of the `80s, the second generation codes were proposed; these differ from the first generation codes owing to the number of balance equations solved (six instead of three), the sophistication of the constitutive models and of the adopted numerics. The capabilities of available computers have been fully exploited during the years. The authors then summarize some of the major steps in the process of developing, modifying, and advancing the capabilities of the codes. They touch on the fact that Italian, and for that matter non-American, researchers have not been intimately involved in much of this work. They then describe the application of these codes in Italy, even though there are no operating or under construction nuclear power plants at this time. Much of this effort is directed at the general question of plant safety in the face of transient type events.

  19. Prediction of Corrosion of Advanced Materials and Fabricated Components

    SciTech Connect

    A. Anderko; G. Engelhardt; M.M. Lencka; M.A. Jakab; G. Tormoen; N. Sridhar

    2007-09-29

    The goal of this project is to provide materials engineers, chemical engineers and plant operators with a software tool that will enable them to predict localized corrosion of process equipment including fabricated components as well as base alloys. For design and revamp purposes, the software predicts the occurrence of localized corrosion as a function of environment chemistry and assists the user in selecting the optimum alloy for a given environment. For the operation of existing plants, the software enables the users to predict the remaining life of equipment and help in scheduling maintenance activities. This project combined fundamental understanding of mechanisms of corrosion with focused experimental results to predict the corrosion of advanced, base or fabricated, alloys in real-world environments encountered in the chemical industry. At the heart of this approach is the development of models that predict the fundamental parameters that control the occurrence of localized corrosion as a function of environmental conditions and alloy composition. The fundamental parameters that dictate the occurrence of localized corrosion are the corrosion and repassivation potentials. The program team, OLI Systems and Southwest Research Institute, has developed theoretical models for these parameters. These theoretical models have been applied to predict the occurrence of localized corrosion of base materials and heat-treated components in a variety of environments containing aggressive and non-aggressive species. As a result of this project, a comprehensive model has been established and extensively verified for predicting the occurrence of localized corrosion as a function of environment chemistry and temperature by calculating the corrosion and repassivation potentials.To support and calibrate the model, an experimental database has been developed to elucidate (1) the effects of various inhibiting species as well as aggressive species on localized corrosion of nickel

  20. Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Post-Flight Navigation Performance Assessment Relative to the Best Estimated Trajectory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gay, Robert S.; Holt, Greg N.; Zanetti, Renato

    2016-01-01

    This paper details the post-flight navigation performance assessment of the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1). Results of each flight phase are presented: Ground Align, Ascent, Orbit, and Entry Descent and Landing. This study examines the on-board Kalman Filter uncertainty along with state deviations relative to the Best Estimated Trajectory (BET). Overall the results show that the Orion Navigation System performed as well or better than expected. Specifically, the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurement availability was significantly better than anticipated at high altitudes. In addition, attitude estimation via processing GPS measurements along with Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data performed very well and maintained good attitude throughout the mission.

  1. Best estimate method versus evaluation method: a comparison of two techniques in evaluating seismic analysis and design. Technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Bumpus, S.E.; Johnson, J.J.; Smith, P.D.

    1980-07-01

    The concept of how two techniques, Best Estimate Method and Evaluation Method, may be applied to the tradditional seismic analysis and design of a nuclear power plant is introduced. Only the four links of the seismic analysis and design methodology chain (SMC)--seismic input, soil-structure interaction, major structural response, and subsystem response--are considered. The objective is to evaluate the compounding of conservatisms in the seismic analysis and design of nuclear power plants, to provide guidance for judgments in the SMC, and to concentrate the evaluation on that part of the seismic analysis and design which is familiar to the engineering community. An example applies the effects of three-dimensional excitations on the model of a nuclear power plant structure. The example demonstrates how conservatisms accrue by coupling two links in the SMC and comparing those results to the effects of one link alone. The utility of employing the Best Estimate Method vs the Evauation Method is also demonstrated.

  2. Prediction of concurrent chemoradiotherapy outcome in advanced oropharyngeal cancer

    PubMed Central

    HASEGAWA, MASAHIRO; MAEDA, HIROYUKI; DENG, ZEYI; KIYUNA, ASANORI; GANAHA, AKIRA; YAMASHITA, YUKASHI; MATAYOSHI, SEN; AGENA, SHINYA; TOITA, TAKAFUMI; UEHARA, TAKAYUKI; SUZUKI, MIKIO

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate human papillomavirus (HPV) infection as a predictor of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) response and indicator of planned neck dissection (PND) for patients with advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC; stage III/IV). Overall, 39 OPSCC patients (32 men, 7 women; median age 61 years, range 39–79 years) were enrolled. The primary lesion and whole neck were irradiated up to 50.4 Gy, and subsequently the primary site and metastatic lymph nodes were boosted with a further 16.2 Gy. Although several chemotherapy regimens were employed, 82.1% of OPSCC patients received the combination of nedaplatin and 5-fluorouracil. HPV-related OPSCC (16 cases) was defined as both HPV DNA-positive status by polymerase chain reaction and p16INK4a overexpression by immunohistochemistry. Patients with N2 and N3 disease received PND 2–3 months after CCRT completion. Compared to non-responders, CCRT responders showed significantly lower nodal stage (N0 to N2b) and HPV-positive status in univariate analysis. Patients with HPV-related OPSCC had longer time to treatment failure (TTF) than those with HPV-unrelated OPSCC (p=0.040). Three-year TTF was 81.3 and 47.8% in the HPV-related and HPV-unrelated groups, respectively. There were also significant differences in disease-free survival (DFS) between the two OPSCC patient groups (p=0.042). Three-year DFS was 93.8 and 66.7% in patients with HPV-related and HPV-unrelated OPSCC, respectively. Multivariate logistic analysis showed a lower risk of TTF event occurrence in HPV-related OPSCC (p=0.041) than in HPV-unrelated OPSCC. Thus, HPV testing in addition to nodal stage was useful for predicting CCRT response, especially in advanced OPSCC. Because patients who received PND showed moderate locoregional control, PND is an effective surgical procedure for controlling neck lesions in patients with advanced HPV-unrelated disease. PMID:24969413

  3. Cancer Pharmacogenomics: Integrating Discoveries in Basic, Clinical and Population Sciences to Advance Predictive Cancer Care

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer Pharmacogenomics: Integrating Discoveries in Basic, Clinical and Population Sciences to Advance Predictive Cancer Care, a 2010 workshop sponsored by the Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program.

  4. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 1, Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Cuccio, J.C.; Brehm, P.; Fang, H.T.

    1995-03-01

    Emphasis of this program is to develop and demonstrate ceramics life prediction methods, including fast fracture, stress rupture, creep, oxidation, and nondestructive evaluation. Significant advancements were made in these methods and their predictive capabilities successfully demonstrated.

  5. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This presentation describes the capabilities of three-dimensional thermal power model of advanced stirling radioisotope generator (ASRG). The performance of the ASRG is presented for different scenario, such as Venus flyby with or without the auxiliary cooling system.

  6. Advances and computational tools towards predictable design in biological engineering.

    PubMed

    Pasotti, Lorenzo; Zucca, Susanna

    2014-01-01

    The design process of complex systems in all the fields of engineering requires a set of quantitatively characterized components and a method to predict the output of systems composed by such elements. This strategy relies on the modularity of the used components or the prediction of their context-dependent behaviour, when parts functioning depends on the specific context. Mathematical models usually support the whole process by guiding the selection of parts and by predicting the output of interconnected systems. Such bottom-up design process cannot be trivially adopted for biological systems engineering, since parts function is hard to predict when components are reused in different contexts. This issue and the intrinsic complexity of living systems limit the capability of synthetic biologists to predict the quantitative behaviour of biological systems. The high potential of synthetic biology strongly depends on the capability of mastering this issue. This review discusses the predictability issues of basic biological parts (promoters, ribosome binding sites, coding sequences, transcriptional terminators, and plasmids) when used to engineer simple and complex gene expression systems in Escherichia coli. A comparison between bottom-up and trial-and-error approaches is performed for all the discussed elements and mathematical models supporting the prediction of parts behaviour are illustrated.

  7. Advanced GIS Exercise: Predicting Rainfall Erosivity Index Using Regression Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Post, Christopher J.; Goddard, Megan A.; Mikhailova, Elena A.; Hall, Steven T.

    2006-01-01

    Graduate students from a variety of agricultural and natural resource fields are incorporating geographic information systems (GIS) analysis into their graduate research, creating a need for teaching methodologies that help students understand advanced GIS topics for use in their own research. Graduate-level GIS exercises help students understand…

  8. Factors that Predict Who Takes Advanced Courses in Cognitive Therapy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pehlivanidis, Artemios

    2007-01-01

    Training in Cognitive Therapy (CT) includes theoretical and didactic components combined with clinical supervision. An introductory course in CT might satisfy training needs in psychotherapy and help in the selection of those trainees who wish to continue to an advanced training level. Predictors of success at such an introductory course have been…

  9. Perceptions and Predictions of Expertise in Advanced Musical Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Papageorgi, Ioulia; Creech, Andrea; Haddon, Elizabeth; Morton, Frances; De Bezenac, Christophe; Himonides, Evangelos; Potter, John; Duffy, Celia; Whyton, Tony; Welch, Graham

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this article was to compare musicians' views on (a) the importance of musical skills and (b) the nature of expertise. Data were obtained from a specially devised web-based questionnaire completed by advanced musicians representing four musical genres (classical, popular, jazz, Scottish traditional) and varying degrees of professional…

  10. Advancements in decadal climate predictability: The role of nonoceanic drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellucci, A.; Haarsma, R.; Bellouin, N.; Booth, B.; Cagnazzo, C.; Hurk, B.; Keenlyside, N.; Koenigk, T.; Massonnet, F.; Materia, S.; Weiss, M.

    2015-06-01

    We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as "signal carriers," transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

  11. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    SciTech Connect

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A.

    1995-10-01

    Most of the studies on the low cycle fatigue life prediction have been reported under isothermal conditions where the deformation of the material is strain dependent. In the development of gas turbines, components such as blades and vanes are exposed to temperature variations in addition to strain cycling. As a result, the deformation process becomes temperature and strain dependent. Therefore, the life of the component becomes sensitive to temperature-strain cycling which produces a process known as {open_quotes}thermomechanical fatigue, or TMF{close_quotes}. The TMF fatigue failure phenomenon has been modeled using conventional fatigue life prediction methods, which are not sufficiently accurate to quantitatively establish an allowable design procedure. To add to the complexity of TMF life prediction, blade and vane substrates are normally coated with aluminide, overlay or thermal barrier type coatings (TBC) where the durability of the component is dominated by the coating/substrate constitutive response and by the fatigue behavior of the coating. A number of issues arise from TMF depending on the type of temperature/strain phase cycle: (1) time-dependent inelastic behavior can significantly affect the stress response. For example, creep relaxation during a tensile or compressive loading at elevated temperatures leads to a progressive increase in the mean stress level under cyclic loading. (2) the mismatch in elastic and thermal expansion properties between the coating and the substrate can lead to significant deviations in the coating stress levels due to changes in the elastic modulii. (3) the {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} corrosion resistance coatings applied to the substrate may act as primary crack initiation sites. Crack initiation in the coating is a function of the coating composition, its mechanical properties, creep relaxation behavior, thermal strain range and the strain/temperature phase relationship.

  12. Toward improved durability in advanced combustors and turbines: Progress in the prediction of thermomechanical loads

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sokolowski, Daniel E.; Ensign, C. Robert

    1986-01-01

    NASA is sponsoring the Turbine Engine Hot Section Technology (HOST) Project to address the need for improved durability in advanced combustors and turbines. Analytical and experimental activities aimed at more accurate prediction of the aerothermal environment, the thermomechanical loads, the material behavior and structural responses to such loading, and life predictions for high temperature cyclic operation have been underway for several years and are showing promising results. Progress is reported in the development of advanced instrumentation and in the improvement of combustor aerothermal and turbine heat transfer models that will lead to more accurate prediction of thermomechanical loads.

  13. Modelling Aerodynamically Generated Sound: Recent Advances in Rotor Noise Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brentner, Kenneth S.

    2000-01-01

    A great deal of progress has been made in the modeling of aerodynamically generated sound for rotors over the past decade. The Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H ) equation has been the foundation for much of the development. Both subsonic and supersonic quadrupole noise formulations have been developed for the prediction of high-speed impulsive noise. In an effort to eliminate the need to compute the quadrupole contribution, the FW-H has also been utilized on permeable surfaces surrounding all physical noise sources. Comparison of the Kirchhoff formulation for moving surfaces with the FW-H equation have shown that the Kirchhoff formulation for moving surfaces can give erroneous results for aeroacoustic problems.

  14. Recent advances using rodent models for predicting human allergenicity

    SciTech Connect

    Knippels, Leon M.J. . E-mail: Knippels@voeding.tno.nl; Penninks, Andre H.

    2005-09-01

    The potential allergenicity of newly introduced proteins in genetically engineered foods has become an important safety evaluation issue. However, to evaluate the potential allergenicity and the potency of new proteins in our food, there are still no widely accepted and reliable test systems. The best-known allergy assessment proposal for foods derived from genetically engineered plants was the careful stepwise process presented in the so-called ILSI/IFBC decision tree. A revision of this decision tree strategy was proposed by a FAO/WHO expert consultation. As prediction of the sensitizing potential of the novel introduced protein based on animal testing was considered to be very important, animal models were introduced as one of the new test items, despite the fact that non of the currently studied models has been widely accepted and validated yet. In this paper, recent results are summarized of promising models developed in rat and mouse.

  15. Investigation of advanced UQ for CRUD prediction with VIPRE.

    SciTech Connect

    Eldred, Michael Scott

    2011-09-01

    This document summarizes the results from a level 3 milestone study within the CASL VUQ effort. It demonstrates the application of 'advanced UQ,' in particular dimension-adaptive p-refinement for polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation. The study calculates statistics for several quantities of interest that are indicators for the formation of CRUD (Chalk River unidentified deposit), which can lead to CIPS (CRUD induced power shift). Stochastic expansion methods are attractive methods for uncertainty quantification due to their fast convergence properties. For smooth functions (i.e., analytic, infinitely-differentiable) in L{sup 2} (i.e., possessing finite variance), exponential convergence rates can be obtained under order refinement for integrated statistical quantities of interest such as mean, variance, and probability. Two stochastic expansion methods are of interest: nonintrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), which computes coefficients for a known basis of multivariate orthogonal polynomials, and stochastic collocation (SC), which forms multivariate interpolation polynomials for known coefficients. Within the DAKOTA project, recent research in stochastic expansion methods has focused on automated polynomial order refinement ('p-refinement') of expansions to support scalability to higher dimensional random input spaces [4, 3]. By preferentially refining only in the most important dimensions of the input space, the applicability of these methods can be extended from O(10{sup 0})-O(10{sup 1}) random variables to O(10{sup 2}) and beyond, depending on the degree of anisotropy (i.e., the extent to which randominput variables have differing degrees of influence on the statistical quantities of interest (QOIs)). Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the application of these adaptive stochastic expansion methods to the analysis of CRUD using the VIPRE simulation tools for two different plant models of differing random dimension, anisotropy, and

  16. Advance prediction of hypotension at cesarean delivery under spinal anesthesia.

    PubMed

    Kinsella, S M; Norris, M C

    1996-01-01

    Cardiovascular responses to supine inferior vena cava compression might predict hypotension risk during elective cesarean delivery using spinal anesthesia. In this pilot study we investigated 27 women before operation by taking blood pressure and heart rate measurements for 5 min in the left lateral position, 5 min supine, and then performed one further reading in the left lateral position and one sitting. Anesthesia with hyperbaric bupivacaine was rigorously standardised. A pre-operative 'supine stress test', combining an increase in maternal heart rate of greater than 10 beats/min or leg flexion movements while supine, was analysed. A positive supine stress test (SST) was 4.1 times more frequent in those with severe systolic hypotension below 70% of baseline (12 out of 16 women) than in those without (2 out of 11 women), with a sensitivity of 75% (95% C.I. 48% to 93%) and specificity of 82% (95% C.I. 48% to 98%). A positive test was associated with twice as much vasopressor use as a negative test (30.7 +/-/14.5 mg versus 13.5 +/-/ 9.9 mg; P = 0.0014). Unlike the SST, cardiovascular responses to the change from recumbent to sitting (tilt test) were not useful as a predictor of hypotension.

  17. Advance prediction of hypotension at cesarean delivery under spinal anesthesia.

    PubMed

    Kinsella, S M; Norris, M C

    1996-01-01

    Cardiovascular responses to supine inferior vena cava compression might predict hypotension risk during elective cesarean delivery using spinal anesthesia. In this pilot study we investigated 27 women before operation by taking blood pressure and heart rate measurements for 5 min in the left lateral position, 5 min supine, and then performed one further reading in the left lateral position and one sitting. Anesthesia with hyperbaric bupivacaine was rigorously standardised. A pre-operative 'supine stress test', combining an increase in maternal heart rate of greater than 10 beats/min or leg flexion movements while supine, was analysed. A positive supine stress test (SST) was 4.1 times more frequent in those with severe systolic hypotension below 70% of baseline (12 out of 16 women) than in those without (2 out of 11 women), with a sensitivity of 75% (95% C.I. 48% to 93%) and specificity of 82% (95% C.I. 48% to 98%). A positive test was associated with twice as much vasopressor use as a negative test (30.7 +/-/14.5 mg versus 13.5 +/-/ 9.9 mg; P = 0.0014). Unlike the SST, cardiovascular responses to the change from recumbent to sitting (tilt test) were not useful as a predictor of hypotension. PMID:15321375

  18. New best estimates for radionuclide solid-liquid distribution coefficients in soils. Part 2: naturally occurring radionuclides.

    PubMed

    Vandenhove, H; Gil-García, C; Rigol, A; Vidal, M

    2009-09-01

    Predicting the transfer of radionuclides in the environment for normal release, accidental, disposal or remediation scenarios in order to assess exposure requires the availability of an important number of generic parameter values. One of the key parameters in environmental assessment is the solid liquid distribution coefficient, K(d), which is used to predict radionuclide-soil interaction and subsequent radionuclide transport in the soil column. This article presents a review of K(d) values for uranium, radium, lead, polonium and thorium based on an extensive literature survey, including recent publications. The K(d) estimates were presented per soil groups defined by their texture and organic matter content (Sand, Loam, Clay and Organic), although the texture class seemed not to significantly affect K(d). Where relevant, other K(d) classification systems are proposed and correlations with soil parameters are highlighted. The K(d) values obtained in this compilation are compared with earlier review data.

  19. Genomic Prediction of Seed Quality Traits Using Advanced Barley Breeding Lines

    PubMed Central

    Nielsen, Nanna Hellum; Jahoor, Ahmed; Jensen, Jens Due; Orabi, Jihad; Cericola, Fabio; Edriss, Vahid; Jensen, Just

    2016-01-01

    Genomic selection was recently introduced in plant breeding. The objective of this study was to develop genomic prediction for important seed quality parameters in spring barley. The aim was to predict breeding values without expensive phenotyping of large sets of lines. A total number of 309 advanced spring barley lines tested at two locations each with three replicates were phenotyped and each line was genotyped by Illumina iSelect 9Kbarley chip. The population originated from two different breeding sets, which were phenotyped in two different years. Phenotypic measurements considered were: seed size, protein content, protein yield, test weight and ergosterol content. A leave-one-out cross-validation strategy revealed high prediction accuracies ranging between 0.40 and 0.83. Prediction across breeding sets resulted in reduced accuracies compared to the leave-one-out strategy. Furthermore, predicting across full and half-sib-families resulted in reduced prediction accuracies. Additionally, predictions were performed using reduced marker sets and reduced training population sets. In conclusion, using less than 200 lines in the training set can result in low prediction accuracy, and the accuracy will then be highly dependent on the family structure of the selected training set. However, the results also indicate that relatively small training sets (200 lines) are sufficient for genomic prediction in commercial barley breeding. In addition, our results indicate a minimum marker set of 1,000 to decrease the risk of low prediction accuracy for some traits or some families. PMID:27783639

  20. Proposal for new best estimates of the soil-to-plant transfer factor of U, Th, Ra, Pb and Po.

    PubMed

    Vandenhove, H; Olyslaegers, G; Sanzharova, N; Shubina, O; Reed, E; Shang, Z; Velasco, H

    2009-09-01

    There is increasing interest in radiological assessment of discharges of naturally occurring radionuclides into the terrestrial environment. Such assessments require parameter values for the pathways considered in predictive models. An important pathway for human exposure is via ingestion of food crops and animal products. One of the key parameters in environmental assessment is therefore the soil-to-plant transfer factor to food and fodder crops. The objective of this study was to compile data, based on an extensive literature survey, concerning soil-to-plant transfer factors for uranium, thorium, radium, lead, and polonium. Transfer factor estimates were presented for major crop groups (Cereals, Leafy vegetables, Non-leafy vegetables, Root crops, Tubers, Fruits, Herbs, Pastures/grasses, Fodder), and also for some compartments within crop groups. Transfer factors were also calculated per soil group, as defined by their texture and organic matter content (Sand, Loam, Clay and Organic), and evaluation of transfer factors' dependency on specific soil characteristics was performed following regression analysis. The derived estimates were compared with estimates currently in use.

  1. Urinary π-glutathione S-transferase Predicts Advanced Acute Kidney Injury Following Cardiovascular Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Shu, Kai-Hsiang; Wang, Chih-Hsien; Wu, Che-Hsiung; Huang, Tao-Min; Wu, Pei-Chen; Lai, Chien-Heng; Tseng, Li-Jung; Tsai, Pi-Ru; Connolly, Rory; Wu, Vin-Cent

    2016-01-01

    Urinary biomarkers augment the diagnosis of acute kidney injury (AKI), with AKI after cardiovascular surgeries being a prototype of prognosis scenario. Glutathione S-transferases (GST) were evaluated as biomarkers of AKI. Urine samples were collected in 141 cardiovascular surgical patients and analyzed for urinary alpha-(α-) and pi-(π-) GSTs. The outcomes of advanced AKI (KDIGO stage 2, 3) and all-cause in-patient mortality, as composite outcome, were recorded. Areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and multivariate generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to predict outcomes. Thirty-eight (26.9%) patients had AKI, while 12 (8.5%) were with advanced AKI. Urinary π-GST differentiated patients with/without advanced AKI or composite outcome after surgery (p < 0.05 by generalized estimating equation). Urinary π-GST predicted advanced AKI at 3 hrs post-surgery (p = 0.033) and composite outcome (p = 0.009), while the corresponding ROC curve had AUC of 0.784 and 0.783. Using GAM, the cutoff value of 14.7 μg/L for π-GST showed the best performance to predict composite outcome. The addition of π-GST to the SOFA score improved risk stratification (total net reclassification index = 0.47). Thus, urinary π-GST levels predict advanced AKI or hospital mortality after cardiovascular surgery and improve in SOFA outcome assessment specific to AKI. PMID:27527370

  2. Advancing monthly streamflow prediction accuracy of CART models using ensemble learning paradigms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdal, Halil Ibrahim; Karakurt, Onur

    2013-01-01

    SummaryStreamflow forecasting is one of the most important steps in the water resources planning and management. Ensemble techniques such as bagging, boosting and stacking have gained popularity in hydrological forecasting in the recent years. The study investigates the potential usage of two ensemble learning paradigms (i.e., bagging; stochastic gradient boosting) in building classification and regression trees (CARTs) ensembles to advance the streamflow prediction accuracy. The study, initially, investigates the use of classification and regression trees for monthly streamflow forecasting and employs a support vector regression (SVR) model as the benchmark model. The analytic results indicate that CART outperforms SVR in both training and testing phases. Although the obtained results of CART model in training phase are considerable, it is not in testing phase. Thus, to optimize the prediction accuracy of CART for monthly streamflow forecasting, we incorporate bagging and stochastic gradient boosting which are rooted in same philosophy, advancing the prediction accuracy of weak learners. Comparing with the results of bagged regression trees (BRTs) and stochastic gradient boosted regression trees (GBRTs) models possess satisfactory monthly streamflow forecasting performance than CART and SVR models. Overall, it is found that ensemble learning paradigms can remarkably advance the prediction accuracy of CART models in monthly streamflow forecasting.

  3. Advancing Satellite-Based Flood Prediction in Complex Terrain Using High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Bartsotas, N. S.

    2015-12-01

    Floods constitute one of the most significant and frequent natural hazard in mountainous regions. Satellite-based precipitation products offer in many cases the only available source of QPE. However, satellite-based QPE over complex terrain suffer from significant bias that limits their applicability for hydrologic modeling. In this work we investigate the potential of a new correction procedure, which involves the use of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model simulations to adjust satellite QPE. Adjustment is based on the pdf matching of satellite and NWP (used as reference) precipitation distribution. The impact of correction procedure on simulating the hydrologic response is examined for 15 storm events that generated floods over the mountainous Upper Adige region of Northern Italy. Atmospheric simulations were performed at 1-km resolution from a state-of-the-art atmospheric model (RAMS/ICLAMS). The proposed error correction procedure was then applied on the widely used TRMM 3B42 satellite precipitation product and the evaluation of the correction was based on independent in situ precipitation measurements from a dense rain gauge network (1 gauge / 70 km2) available in the study area. Satellite QPE, before and after correction, are used to simulate flood response using ARFFS (Adige River Flood Forecasting System), a semi-distributed hydrologic model, which is used for operational flood forecasting in the region. Results showed that bias in satellite QPE before correction was significant and had a tremendous impact on the simulation of flood peak, however the correction procedure was able to reduce bias in QPE and therefore improve considerably the simulated flood hydrograph.

  4. Computational methods in the prediction of advanced subsonic and supersonic propeller induced noise: ASSPIN users' manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunn, M. H.; Tarkenton, G. M.

    1992-01-01

    This document describes the computational aspects of propeller noise prediction in the time domain and the use of high speed propeller noise prediction program ASSPIN (Advanced Subsonic and Supersonic Propeller Induced Noise). These formulations are valid in both the near and far fields. Two formulations are utilized by ASSPIN: (1) one is used for subsonic portions of the propeller blade; and (2) the second is used for transonic and supersonic regions on the blade. Switching between the two formulations is done automatically. ASSPIN incorporates advanced blade geometry and surface pressure modelling, adaptive observer time grid strategies, and contains enhanced numerical algorithms that result in reduced computational time. In addition, the ability to treat the nonaxial inflow case has been included.

  5. Improved NASA-ANOPP Noise Prediction Computer Code for Advanced Subsonic Propulsion Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kontos, K. B.; Janardan, B. A.; Gliebe, P. R.

    1996-01-01

    Recent experience using ANOPP to predict turbofan engine flyover noise suggests that it over-predicts overall EPNL by a significant amount. An improvement in this prediction method is desired for system optimization and assessment studies of advanced UHB engines. An assessment of the ANOPP fan inlet, fan exhaust, jet, combustor, and turbine noise prediction methods is made using static engine component noise data from the CF6-8OC2, E(3), and QCSEE turbofan engines. It is shown that the ANOPP prediction results are generally higher than the measured GE data, and that the inlet noise prediction method (Heidmann method) is the most significant source of this overprediction. Fan noise spectral comparisons show that improvements to the fan tone, broadband, and combination tone noise models are required to yield results that more closely simulate the GE data. Suggested changes that yield improved fan noise predictions but preserve the Heidmann model structure are identified and described. These changes are based on the sets of engine data mentioned, as well as some CFM56 engine data that was used to expand the combination tone noise database. It should be noted that the recommended changes are based on an analysis of engines that are limited to single stage fans with design tip relative Mach numbers greater than one.

  6. Measured and predicted rotor performance for the SERI advanced wind turbine blades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tangler, J.; Smith, B.; Kelley, N.; Jager, D.

    1992-02-01

    Measured and predicted rotor performance for the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI) advanced wind turbine blades were compared to assess the accuracy of predictions and to identify the sources of error affecting both predictions and measurements. An awareness of these sources of error contributes to improved prediction and measurement methods that will ultimately benefit future rotor design efforts. Propeller/vane anemometers were found to underestimate the wind speed in turbulent environments such as the San Gorgonio Pass wind farm area. Using sonic or cup anemometers, good agreement was achieved between predicted and measured power output for wind speeds up to 8 m/sec. At higher wind speeds an optimistic predicted power output and the occurrence of peak power at wind speeds lower than measurements resulted from the omission of turbulence and yaw error. In addition, accurate two-dimensional (2-D) airfoil data prior to stall and a post stall airfoil data synthesization method that reflects three-dimensional (3-D) effects were found to be essential for accurate performance prediction.

  7. Comparison of Advection–Diffusion Models and Neural Networks for Prediction of Advanced Water Treatment Effluent

    PubMed Central

    Mortula, Mohammed Maruf; Abdalla, Jamal; Ghadban, Ahmad A.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract An artificial neural network (ANN) can help in the prediction of advanced water treatment effluent and thus facilitate design practices. In this study, sets of 225 experimental data were obtained from a wastewater treatment process for the removal of phosphorus using oven-dried alum residuals in fixed-bed adsorbers. Five input variables (pH, initial phosphorus concentration, wastewater flow rate, porosity, and time) were used to test the efficiency of phosphorus removal at different times, and ANNs were then used to predict the effluent phosphorus concentration. Results of experiments that were conducted for different values of the input parameters made up the data used to train and test a multilayer perceptron using the back-propagation algorithm of the ANN. Values predicted by the ANN and the experimentally measured values were compared, and the accuracy of the ANN was evaluated. When ANN results were compared to the experimental results, it was concluded that the ANN results were accurate, especially during conditions of high phosphorus concentration. While the ANN model was able to predict the breakthrough point with good accuracy, the conventional advection–diffusion equation was not as accurate. A parametric study conducted to examine the effect of the initial pH and initial phosphorus concentration on the effluent phosphorus concentration at different times showed that lower influent pH values are the most suitable for this advanced treatment system. PMID:22783063

  8. Unsteady blade surface pressures on a large-scale advanced propeller - Prediction and data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1990-01-01

    An unsteady three dimensional Euler analysis technique is employed to compute the flowfield of an advanced propeller operating at an angle of attack. The predicted blade pressure waveforms are compared with wind tunnel data at two Mach numbers, 0.5 and 0.2. The inflow angle is three degrees. For an inflow Mach number of 0.5, the predicted pressure response is in fair agreement with data: the predicted phases of the waveforms are in close agreement with data while the magnitudes are underpredicted. At the low Mach number of 0.2 (take-off) the numerical solution shows the formation of a leading edge vortex which is in qualitative agreement with measurements. However, the highly nonlinear pressure response measured on the blade suction surface is not captured in the present inviscid analysis.

  9. Unsteady blade-surface pressures on a large-scale advanced propeller: Prediction and data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1990-01-01

    An unsteady 3-D Euler analysis technique is employed to compute the flow field of an advanced propeller operating at an angle of attack. The predicted blade pressure waveforms are compared with wind tunnel data at two Mach numbers, 0.5 and 0.2. The inflow angle is three degrees. For an inflow Mach number of 0.5, the predicted pressure response is in fair agreement with data: the predicted phases of the waveforms are in close agreement with data while the magnitudes are underpredicted. At the low Mach number of 0.2 (takeoff), the numerical solution shows the formation of a leading edge vortex which is in qualitative agreement with measurements. However, the highly nonlinear pressure response measured on the blade suction surface is not captured in the present inviscid analysis.

  10. Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Spottiswoode, Claire N; Tøttrup, Anders P; Coppack, Timothy

    2006-01-01

    Global warming has led to earlier spring arrival of migratory birds, but the extent of this advancement varies greatly among species, and it remains uncertain to what degree these changes are phenotypically plastic responses or microevolutionary adaptations to changing environmental conditions. We suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation, since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection opposing sexual selection for early migration, which would predict greatest advancement in species with stronger female choice. We test this hypothesis comparatively by investigating the degree of long-term change in spring passage at two ringing stations in northern Europe in relation to a synthetic estimate of the strength of female choice, composed of degree of extra-pair paternity, relative testes size and degree of sexually dichromatic plumage colouration. We found that species with a stronger index of sexual selection have indeed advanced their date of spring passage to a greater extent. This relationship was stronger for the changes in the median passage date of the whole population than for changes in the timing of first-arriving individuals, suggesting that selection has not only acted on protandrous males. These results suggest that sexual selection may have an impact on the responses of organisms to climate change, and knowledge of a species' mating system might help to inform attempts at predicting these. PMID:17015341

  11. Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972-2002: Best estimates, uncertainties and research needs.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Jane; Shearman, Phil; Ash, Julian; Kirkpatrick, J B

    2010-01-01

    Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented, accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest, we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks, and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (+/-13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt (+/-18%). By applying a long-term forest change model, we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (+/-18%), rising from 24 Mt (+/-15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging, rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest, and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies. PMID:20040396

  12. REFIR - The operational FutureVolc multi-parameter system providing a best estimate of mass eruption rate during ongoing eruptions in near real-time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dürig, Tobias

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic ash injected into the atmosphere poses a serious threat for aviation. Forecasting the concentration of ash promptly requires detailed knowledge of eruption source parameters. However, monitoring an ongoing eruption and quantifying the mass flux in real-time is a considerable challenge. Due to the large uncertainties affecting present-day models, best estimates are often obtained by the application of integrated approaches. One example for this strategy is represented by the EU supersite project "FutureVolc" which aims to monitor eruptions of volcanoes in Iceland. A quasi-autonomous multi-parameter system, denoted "REFIR", has been developed. REFIR makes use of streaming data provided by a multitude of sensors, e.g. by C- and X-band radars, web-cam based plume height tracking systems, imaging ultra-violet and infrared cameras and electric field sensors. These observations are used with plume models that also consider the current local wind and other atmospheric conditions, and a best estimate of source parameters, including the mass eruption rate, is provided in near real-time (within a time interval of 5 minutes) as soon as an eruption has started. Since neither the time nor the location of the next Icelandic eruption is known the system has been developed with a guiding principle of maximum flexibility, and it can effortlessly be implemented elsewhere needing minimum adoption to local conditions. Moreover, it is designed to be easily upgraded, which allows future extension of the existing monitoring network, learning from new events, and incorporating new technologies and model improvements. Data-flow, features and integrated models within REFIR will be presented and strategies for implementing potential future research developments on ash plume dynamics will be discussed.

  13. Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry V.; Schifer, Nicholas A.; Briggs, Maxwell H.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASCs convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a particular operating frequency, hot end and cold end temperatures, and specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. Microporous bulk insulation is used in the ground support test hardware to minimize the loss of thermal energy from the electric heat source to the environment. The insulation package is characterized before operation to predict how much heat will be absorbed by the convertor and how much will be lost to the environment during operation. In an effort to validate these predictions, numerous tasks have been performed, which provided a more accurate value for net heat input into the ASCs. This test and modeling effort included: (a) making thermophysical property measurements of test setup materials to provide inputs to the numerical models, (b) acquiring additional test data that was collected during convertor tests to provide numerical models with temperature profiles of the test setup via thermocouple and infrared measurements, (c) using multidimensional numerical models (computational fluid dynamics code) to predict net heat input of an operating convertor, and (d) using validation test hardware to provide direct comparison of numerical results and validate the multidimensional numerical models used to predict convertor net heat input. This effort produced high fidelity ASC net heat input predictions, which were successfully validated using

  14. Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

    PubMed Central

    Shao, Yu-Yun; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

    2015-01-01

    Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC. PMID:26420960

  15. Comparison of two imaging programs in predicting the soft tissue changes with mandibular advancement surgery.

    PubMed

    Ravindranath, Sneha; Krishnaswamy, Nathamuni Rengarajan; Sundaram, Venkateswaran

    2011-01-01

    Establishing common objectives and expectations concerning the outcome of proposed surgical orthodontic therapy is a crucial part of the treatment planning process, which has been greatly simplified by imaging software. The purpose of this study was to investigate the reliability of two surgical imaging programs--Dolphin Imaging 10 and Vistadent OC--in simulating the actual outcome of mandibular advancement surgery by using a visual analog scale (VAS) judged by a panel of orthodontists, oral surgeons, and laypersons. The predictions were also analyzed with soft tissue cephalometric evaluation. The results of the study showed that in predicting the surgical outcome evaluated by the VAS, both programs received a mean rating of fair. One was marginally superior for the overall assessment among all three panelist groups. Region-wise, rating indicated the lower lip region to be the least accurate, and the submental region received the highest scores. The soft tissue cephalometric parameters showed minimal differences except for the lower lip parameters. Thus, Dolphin Imaging 10 and Vistadent OC are reliable in predicting mandibular advancement surgical outcomes with inaccuracies chiefly in the lower lip region. PMID:22299108

  16. Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

    PubMed

    Shao, Yu-Yun; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

    2015-09-28

    Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC.

  17. Simulation studies of the impact of advanced observing systems on numerical weather prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, R.; Kalnay, E.; Susskind, J.; Reuter, D.; Baker, W. E.; Halem, M.

    1984-01-01

    To study the potential impact of advanced passive sounders and lidar temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind observing systems on large-scale numerical weather prediction, a series of realistic simulation studies between the European Center for medium-range weather forecasts, the National Meteorological Center, and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences is conducted. The project attempts to avoid the unrealistic character of earlier simulation studies. The previous simulation studies and real-data impact tests are reviewed and the design of the current simulation system is described. Consideration is given to the simulation of observations of space-based sounding systems.

  18. A proposed predictive model for advanced fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B and its validation.

    PubMed

    Nishikawa, Hiroki; Hasegawa, Kunihiro; Ishii, Akio; Takata, Ryo; Enomoto, Hirayuki; Yoh, Kazunori; Kishino, Kyohei; Shimono, Yoshihiro; Iwata, Yoshinori; Nakano, Chikage; Nishimura, Takashi; Aizawa, Nobuhiro; Sakai, Yoshiyuki; Ikeda, Naoto; Takashima, Tomoyuki; Iijima, Hiroko; Nishiguchi, Shuhei

    2016-08-01

    We created a predictive model using serum-based biomarkers for advanced fibrosis (F3 or more) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and to confirm the accuracy in an independent cohort.A total of 249 CHB patients were analyzed. To achieve our study aim, a training group (n = 125) and a validation group (n = 124) were formed. In the training group, parameters related to the presence of advanced fibrosis in univariate and multivariate analyses were examined, and a formula for advanced fibrosis was created. Next, we verified the applicability of the predictive model in the validation group.Multivariate analysis identified that gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT, P = 0.0343) and platelet count (P = 0.0034) were significant predictors of the presence of advanced fibrosis, while Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein (WFA-M2BP, P = 0.0741) and hyaluronic acid (P = 0.0916) tended to be significant factors. Using these 4 parameters, we created the following formula: GMPH score = -0.755 - (0.015 × GGT) - (0.268 × WFA-M2BP) + (0.167 × platelet count) + (0.003 × hyaluronic acid). In 8 analyzed variables (WFA-M2BP, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, FIB-4 index, prothrombin time, platelet count, hyaluronic acid, Forns index, and GMPH score), GMPH score had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for advanced fibrosis with a value of 0.8064 in the training group and in the validation group, GMPH score also had the highest AUROC (0.7782). In all subgroup analyses of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) status (HB surface antigen quantification, HBV-DNA quantification, and HBe antigen seropositivity), GMPH score in F3 or F4 was significantly lower than that in F0 to F2. In the above mentioned 8 variables, differences between the liver fibrosis stages (F0 to F1 vs F2, F2 vs F3, F3 vs F4, F0 to F1 vs F3, F0 to F1 vs F4, and F2 vs F4) for the entire

  19. A proposed predictive model for advanced fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B and its validation

    PubMed Central

    Nishikawa, Hiroki; Hasegawa, Kunihiro; Ishii, Akio; Takata, Ryo; Enomoto, Hirayuki; Yoh, Kazunori; Kishino, Kyohei; Shimono, Yoshihiro; Iwata, Yoshinori; Nakano, Chikage; Nishimura, Takashi; Aizawa, Nobuhiro; Sakai, Yoshiyuki; Ikeda, Naoto; Takashima, Tomoyuki; Iijima, Hiroko; Nishiguchi, Shuhei

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We created a predictive model using serum-based biomarkers for advanced fibrosis (F3 or more) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and to confirm the accuracy in an independent cohort. A total of 249 CHB patients were analyzed. To achieve our study aim, a training group (n = 125) and a validation group (n = 124) were formed. In the training group, parameters related to the presence of advanced fibrosis in univariate and multivariate analyses were examined, and a formula for advanced fibrosis was created. Next, we verified the applicability of the predictive model in the validation group. Multivariate analysis identified that gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT, P = 0.0343) and platelet count (P = 0.0034) were significant predictors of the presence of advanced fibrosis, while Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein (WFA+-M2BP, P = 0.0741) and hyaluronic acid (P = 0.0916) tended to be significant factors. Using these 4 parameters, we created the following formula: GMPH score = −0.755 − (0.015 × GGT) − (0.268 × WFA+-M2BP) + (0.167 × platelet count) + (0.003 × hyaluronic acid). In 8 analyzed variables (WFA+-M2BP, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, FIB-4 index, prothrombin time, platelet count, hyaluronic acid, Forns index, and GMPH score), GMPH score had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for advanced fibrosis with a value of 0.8064 in the training group and in the validation group, GMPH score also had the highest AUROC (0.7782). In all subgroup analyses of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) status (HB surface antigen quantification, HBV-DNA quantification, and HBe antigen seropositivity), GMPH score in F3 or F4 was significantly lower than that in F0 to F2. In the above mentioned 8 variables, differences between the liver fibrosis stages (F0 to F1 vs F2, F2 vs F3, F3 vs F4, F0 to F1 vs F3, F0 to F1 vs F4, and F2 vs

  20. Predictive and preventive strategies to advance the treatments of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases: the Ukrainian context

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Despite great efforts in treatments of cardiovascular diseases, the field requires innovative strategies because of high rates of morbidity, mortality and disability, indicating evident deficits in predictive vascular diagnosis and individualized treatment approaches. Talking about the vascular system, currently, physicians are not provided with integrated medical approaches to diagnose and treat vascular diseases. Only an individual global approach to the analysis of all segments in the vascular system of a patient allows finding the optimal way for vascular disease treatment. As for the existing methodology, there is a dominance of static methods such as X-ray contrast angiography and magnetic resonance imaging in angiomode. Taking into account the world experience, this article deals with innovative strategies, aiming at predictive diagnosis in vascular system, personalization of the biomedical treatment approaches, and targeted prevention of individual patient cohorts. Clinical examples illustrate the advances in corresponding healthcare sectors. Recommendations are provided to promote the field. PMID:23083430

  1. Multiscale Modeling of Advanced Materials for Damage Prediction and Structural Health Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkowski, Luke

    Advanced aerospace materials, including fiber reinforced polymer and ceramic matrix composites, are increasingly being used in critical and demanding applications, challenging the current damage prediction, detection, and quantification methodologies. Multiscale computational models offer key advantages over traditional analysis techniques and can provide the necessary capabilities for the development of a comprehensive virtual structural health monitoring (SHM) framework. Virtual SHM has the potential to drastically improve the design and analysis of aerospace components through coupling the complementary capabilities of models able to predict the initiation and propagation of damage under a wide range of loading and environmental scenarios, simulate interrogation methods for damage detection and quantification, and assess the health of a structure. A major component of the virtual SHM framework involves having micromechanics-based multiscale composite models that can provide the elastic, inelastic, and damage behavior of composite material systems under mechanical and thermal loading conditions and in the presence of microstructural complexity and variability. Quantification of the role geometric and architectural variability in the composite microstructure plays in the local and global composite behavior is essential to the development of appropriate scale-dependent unit cells and boundary conditions for the multiscale model. Once the composite behavior is predicted and variability effects assessed, wave-based SHM simulation models serve to provide knowledge on the probability of detection and characterization accuracy of damage present in the composite. The research presented in this dissertation provides the foundation for a comprehensive SHM framework for advanced aerospace materials. The developed models enhance the prediction of damage formation as a result of ceramic matrix composite processing, improve the understanding of the effects of architectural and

  2. A Model to Predict Nitrogen Losses in Advanced Soil-Based Wastewater Treatment Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morales, I.; Cooper, J.; Loomis, G.; Kalen, D.; Amador, J.; Boving, T. B.

    2014-12-01

    Most of the non-point source Nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds are considered environmental pollutants because they deplete the oxygen availability in water bodies and produce eutrophication. The objective of this study was to simulate the fate and transport of Nitrogen in OWTS. The commercially-available 2D/3D HYDRUS software was used to develop a transport and fate model. Experimental data from a laboratory meso-cosm study included the soil moisture content, NH4 and NO3- data. That data set was used to calibrate the model. Three types of OWTS were simulated: (1) pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (SND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. To better understand the nitrogen removal mechanism and the performance of OWTS technologies, replicate (n = 3) intact soil mesocosms were used with 15N-labelled nitrogen inputs. As a result, it was estimated that N removal by denitrification was predominant in P&S. However, it is suggested that N was removed by nitrification in SND and GEO. The calibrated model was used to estimate Nitrogen fluxes for both conventional and advanced OWTS. Also, the model predicted the N losses from nitrification and denitrification in all OWTS. These findings help to provide practitioners with guidelines to estimate N removal efficiencies for OWTS, and predict N loads and spatial distribution for identifying non-point sources.

  3. Plasma genetic and genomic abnormalities predict treatment response and clinical outcome in advanced prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Du, Meijun; Dittmar, Rachel L.; Lee, Adam; Nandy, Debashis; Yuan, Tiezheng; Guo, Yongchen; Wang, Yuan; Tschannen, Michael R.; Worthey, Elizabeth; Jacob, Howard; See, William; Kilari, Deepak; Wang, Xuexia; Hovey, Raymond L.; Huang, Chiang-Ching; Wang, Liang

    2015-01-01

    Liquid biopsies, examinations of tumor components in body fluids, have shown promise for predicting clinical outcomes. To evaluate tumor-associated genomic and genetic variations in plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and their associations with treatment response and overall survival, we applied whole genome and targeted sequencing to examine the plasma cfDNAs derived from 20 patients with advanced prostate cancer. Sequencing-based genomic abnormality analysis revealed locus-specific gains or losses that were common in prostate cancer, such as 8q gains, AR amplifications, PTEN losses and TMPRSS2-ERG fusions. To estimate tumor burden in cfDNA, we developed a Plasma Genomic Abnormality (PGA) score by summing the most significant copy number variations. Cox regression analysis showed that PGA scores were significantly associated with overall survival (p < 0.04). After androgen deprivation therapy or chemotherapy, targeted sequencing showed significant mutational profile changes in genes involved in androgen biosynthesis, AR activation, DNA repair, and chemotherapy resistance. These changes may reflect the dynamic evolution of heterozygous tumor populations in response to these treatments. These results strongly support the feasibility of using non-invasive liquid biopsies as potential tools to study biological mechanisms underlying therapy-specific resistance and to predict disease progression in advanced prostate cancer. PMID:25915538

  4. Can primary optimal cytoreduction be predicted in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer preoperatively?

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Introduction Prediction of optimal cytoreduction in patients with advanced epithelial ovarian caner preoperatively. Methods Patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer who underwent surgery for the first time from Jan. to June 2008 at gynecologic oncology ward of TUMS (Tehran University of Medical Sciences) were eligible for this study. The possibility of predicting primary optimal cytoreduction considering multiple variables was evaluated. Variables were peritoneal carcinomatosis, serum CA125, ascites, pleural effusion, physical status and imaging findings. Univariate comparisons of patients underwent suboptimal cytoreduction carried out using Fisher's exact test for each of the potential predictors. The wilcoxon rank sum test was used to compare variables between patients with optimal versus suboptimal cytoreduction. Results 41 patients met study inclusion criteria. Statistically significant association was noted between peritoneal carcinomatosis and suboptimal cytoreduction. There were no statistically significant differences between physical status, pleural effusion, imaging findings, serum CA125 and ascites of individuals with optimal cytoreduction compared to those with suboptimal cytoreduction. Conclusions Because of small populations in our study the results are not reproducible in alternate populations. Only the patient who is most unlikely to undergo optimal cytoreduction should be offered neoadjuvant chemotherapy, unless her medical condition renders her unsuitable for primary surgery. PMID:20170515

  5. Predictive Modeling of Estrogen Receptor Binding Agents Using Advanced Cheminformatics Tools and Massive Public Data

    PubMed Central

    Ribay, Kathryn; Kim, Marlene T.; Wang, Wenyi; Pinolini, Daniel; Zhu, Hao

    2016-01-01

    Estrogen receptors (ERα) are a critical target for drug design as well as a potential source of toxicity when activated unintentionally. Thus, evaluating potential ERα binding agents is critical in both drug discovery and chemical toxicity areas. Using computational tools, e.g., Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models, can predict potential ERα binding agents before chemical synthesis. The purpose of this project was to develop enhanced predictive models of ERα binding agents by utilizing advanced cheminformatics tools that can integrate publicly available bioassay data. The initial ERα binding agent data set, consisting of 446 binders and 8307 non-binders, was obtained from the Tox21 Challenge project organized by the NIH Chemical Genomics Center (NCGC). After removing the duplicates and inorganic compounds, this data set was used to create a training set (259 binders and 259 non-binders). This training set was used to develop QSAR models using chemical descriptors. The resulting models were then used to predict the binding activity of 264 external compounds, which were available to us after the models were developed. The cross-validation results of training set [Correct Classification Rate (CCR) = 0.72] were much higher than the external predictivity of the unknown compounds (CCR = 0.59). To improve the conventional QSAR models, all compounds in the training set were used to search PubChem and generate a profile of their biological responses across thousands of bioassays. The most important bioassays were prioritized to generate a similarity index that was used to calculate the biosimilarity score between each two compounds. The nearest neighbors for each compound within the set were then identified and its ERα binding potential was predicted by its nearest neighbors in the training set. The hybrid model performance (CCR = 0.94 for cross validation; CCR = 0.68 for external prediction) showed significant improvement over the original QSAR

  6. Predictive Modeling of Estrogen Receptor Binding Agents Using Advanced Cheminformatics Tools and Massive Public Data

    PubMed Central

    Ribay, Kathryn; Kim, Marlene T.; Wang, Wenyi; Pinolini, Daniel; Zhu, Hao

    2016-01-01

    Estrogen receptors (ERα) are a critical target for drug design as well as a potential source of toxicity when activated unintentionally. Thus, evaluating potential ERα binding agents is critical in both drug discovery and chemical toxicity areas. Using computational tools, e.g., Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models, can predict potential ERα binding agents before chemical synthesis. The purpose of this project was to develop enhanced predictive models of ERα binding agents by utilizing advanced cheminformatics tools that can integrate publicly available bioassay data. The initial ERα binding agent data set, consisting of 446 binders and 8307 non-binders, was obtained from the Tox21 Challenge project organized by the NIH Chemical Genomics Center (NCGC). After removing the duplicates and inorganic compounds, this data set was used to create a training set (259 binders and 259 non-binders). This training set was used to develop QSAR models using chemical descriptors. The resulting models were then used to predict the binding activity of 264 external compounds, which were available to us after the models were developed. The cross-validation results of training set [Correct Classification Rate (CCR) = 0.72] were much higher than the external predictivity of the unknown compounds (CCR = 0.59). To improve the conventional QSAR models, all compounds in the training set were used to search PubChem and generate a profile of their biological responses across thousands of bioassays. The most important bioassays were prioritized to generate a similarity index that was used to calculate the biosimilarity score between each two compounds. The nearest neighbors for each compound within the set were then identified and its ERα binding potential was predicted by its nearest neighbors in the training set. The hybrid model performance (CCR = 0.94 for cross validation; CCR = 0.68 for external prediction) showed significant improvement over the original QSAR

  7. Early Identification of Students Predicted to Enroll in Advanced, Upper-Level High School Courses: An Examination of Validity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeRose, Diego S.; Clement, Russell W.

    2011-01-01

    Broward County Public Schools' Research Services department uses logistic regression analysis to compute an indicator to predict student enrollment in advanced high school courses, for students entering ninth grade for the first time. This prediction indicator, along with other student characteristics, supports high school guidance staffs in…

  8. Proposal for new best estimates for the soil solid-liquid distribution coefficient and soil-to-plant transfer of nickel.

    PubMed

    Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Van Hees, May; Olyslaegers, Geert; Vidal, Miquel

    2009-04-01

    The objective of this study was to compile data, based on an extensive literature survey, for the soil solid-liquid distribution coefficient (K(d)) and soil-to-plant transfer factor (TF) for nickel. The K(d) best estimates were calculated for soils grouped according to texture and organic matter content (sand, loam, clay and organic) and soil cofactors affecting soil-nickel interaction, such as pH, organic matter, and clay content. Variability in K(d) was better explained by pH than by soil texture. Nickel TF estimates were presented for major crop groups (cereals, leafy vegetables, non-leafy vegetables, root crops, tubers, fruits, herbs, pastures/grasses and fodder), and also for plant compartments within crop groups. Transfer factors were also calculated per soil group, as defined by their texture and organic matter content. Furthermore an evaluation of transfer factor dependency on specific soil characteristics was performed following regression analysis. The derived estimates were compared with parameter estimates currently in use.

  9. Proposal for new best estimates for the soil solid-liquid distribution coefficient and soil-to-plant transfer of nickel.

    PubMed

    Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Van Hees, May; Olyslaegers, Geert; Vidal, Miquel

    2009-04-01

    The objective of this study was to compile data, based on an extensive literature survey, for the soil solid-liquid distribution coefficient (K(d)) and soil-to-plant transfer factor (TF) for nickel. The K(d) best estimates were calculated for soils grouped according to texture and organic matter content (sand, loam, clay and organic) and soil cofactors affecting soil-nickel interaction, such as pH, organic matter, and clay content. Variability in K(d) was better explained by pH than by soil texture. Nickel TF estimates were presented for major crop groups (cereals, leafy vegetables, non-leafy vegetables, root crops, tubers, fruits, herbs, pastures/grasses and fodder), and also for plant compartments within crop groups. Transfer factors were also calculated per soil group, as defined by their texture and organic matter content. Furthermore an evaluation of transfer factor dependency on specific soil characteristics was performed following regression analysis. The derived estimates were compared with parameter estimates currently in use. PMID:19223096

  10. Advances in Rosetta structure prediction for difficult molecular-replacement problems

    SciTech Connect

    DiMaio, Frank

    2013-11-01

    Modeling advances using Rosetta structure prediction to aid in solving difficult molecular-replacement problems are discussed. Recent work has shown the effectiveness of structure-prediction methods in solving difficult molecular-replacement problems. The Rosetta protein structure modeling suite can aid in the solution of difficult molecular-replacement problems using templates from 15 to 25% sequence identity; Rosetta refinement guided by noisy density has consistently led to solved structures where other methods fail. In this paper, an overview of the use of Rosetta for these difficult molecular-replacement problems is provided and new modeling developments that further improve model quality are described. Several variations to the method are introduced that significantly reduce the time needed to generate a model and the sampling required to improve the starting template. The improvements are benchmarked on a set of nine difficult cases and it is shown that this improved method obtains consistently better models in less running time. Finally, strategies for best using Rosetta to solve difficult molecular-replacement problems are presented and future directions for the role of structure-prediction methods in crystallography are discussed.

  11. The prediction of the building precision in the Laser Engineered Net Shaping process using advanced networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Z. L.; Li, D. C.; Lu, B. H.; Zhang, A. F.; Zhu, G. X.; Pi, G.

    2010-05-01

    Laser Engineered Net Shaping (LENS) is an advanced manufacturing technology, but it is difficult to control the depositing height (DH) of the prototype because there are many technology parameters influencing the forming process. The effect of main parameters (laser power, scanning speed and powder feeding rate) on the DH of single track is firstly analyzed, and then it shows that there is the complex nonlinear intrinsic relationship between them. In order to predict the DH, the back propagation (BP) based network improved with Adaptive learning rate and Momentum coefficient (AM) algorithm, and the least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) network are both adopted. The mapping relationship between above parameters and the DH is constructed according to training samples collected by LENS experiments, and then their generalization ability, function-approximating ability and real-time are contrastively investigated. The results show that although the predicted result by the BP-AM approximates the experimental result, above performance index of the LS-SVM are better than those of the BP-AM. Finally, high-definition thin-walled parts of AISI316L are successfully fabricated. Hence, the LS-SVM network is more suitable for the prediction of the DH.

  12. Edge Fracture Prediction ofTraditional and Advanced Trimming Processes for AA6111-T4 Sheets

    SciTech Connect

    Hu, Xiaohua; Choi, Kyoo Sil; Sun, Xin; Golovashchenko, Segey F.

    2014-02-15

    This work examines the traditional and advanced trimming of AA6111-T4 aluminum sheets with finite element simulations. The Rice-Tracy damage model is used for the simulation with damage parameters estimated from experimental observation of grain aspect ratio near the fracture surface of trimmed parts. Fine meshes at the shearing zone, adaptive meshing, and adaptive contact techniques are used to accurately capture the contact interactions between the sharp corner of the trimming tools and the blank to be trimmed. To the knowledge of the authors, these are the first trimming simulations that can predict the effects of shearing clearance on burr heights with quantitative accuracy for AA6111-T4 aluminum sheets. In addition, the models have also accurately reproduced the crack initiation site as well as burr and sliver formation mechanisms observed experimentally.

  13. Prediction of response to preoperative chemoradiotherapy and establishment of individualized therapy in advanced rectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Nakao, Toshihiro; Iwata, Takashi; Hotchi, Masanori; Yoshikawa, Kozo; Higashijima, Jun; Nishi, Masaaki; Takasu, Chie; Eto, Shohei; Teraoku, Hiroki; Shimada, Mitsuo

    2015-10-01

    Preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) has become the standard treatment for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. However, no specific biomarker has been identified to predict a response to preoperative CRT. The aim of the present study was to assess the gene expression patterns of patients with advanced rectal cancer to predict their responses to preoperative CRT. Fifty-nine rectal cancer patients were subjected to preoperative CRT. Patients were randomly assigned to receive CRT with tegafur/gimeracil/oteracil (S-1 group, n=30) or tegafur-uracil (UFT group, n=29). Gene expression changes were studied with cDNA and miRNA microarray. The association between gene expression and response to CRT was evaluated. cDNA microarray showed that 184 genes were significantly differentially expressed between the responders and the non‑responders in the S-1 group. Comparatively, 193 genes were significantly differentially expressed in the responders in the UFT group. TBX18 upregulation was common to both groups whereas BTNL8, LOC375010, ADH1B, HRASLS2, LOC284232, GCNT3 and ALDH1A2 were significantly differentially lower in both groups when compared with the non-responders. Using miRNA microarray, we found that 7 and 16 genes were significantly differentially expressed between the responders and non-responders in the S-1 and UFT groups, respectively. miR-223 was significantly higher in the responders in the S-1 group and tended to be higher in the responders in the UFT group. The present study identified several genes likely to be useful for establishing individualized therapies for patients with rectal cancer.

  14. Surprise Questions for Survival Prediction in Patients With Advanced Cancer: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Hamano, Jun; Morita, Tatsuya; Inoue, Satoshi; Ikenaga, Masayuki; Matsumoto, Yoshihisa; Sekine, Ryuichi; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Hirohashi, Takeshi; Tajima, Tsukasa; Tatara, Ryohei; Watanabe, Hiroaki; Otani, Hiroyuki; Takigawa, Chizuko; Matsuda, Yoshinobu; Nagaoka, Hiroka; Mori, Masanori; Yamamoto, Naoki; Shimizu, Mie; Sasara, Takeshi

    2015-01-01

    Background. Predicting the short-term survival in cancer patients is an important issue for patients, family, and oncologists. Although the prognostic accuracy of the surprise question has value in 1-year mortality for cancer patients, the prognostic value for short-term survival has not been formally assessed. The primary aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic value of the surprise question for 7-day and 30-day survival in patients with advanced cancer. Patients and Methods. The present multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted in Japan from September 2012 through April 2014, involving 16 palliative care units, 19 hospital-based palliative care teams, and 23 home-based palliative care services. Results. We recruited 2,425 patients and included 2,361 for analysis: 912 from hospital-based palliative care teams, 895 from hospital palliative care units, and 554 from home-based palliative care services. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the 7-day survival surprise question were 84.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80.7%–88.0%), 68.0% (95% CI, 67.3%–68.5%), 30.3% (95% CI, 28.9%–31.5%), and 96.4% (95% CI, 95.5%–97.2%), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the 30-day surprise question were 95.6% (95% CI, 94.4%–96.6%), 37.0% (95% CI, 35.9%–37.9%), 57.6% (95% CI, 56.8%–58.2%), and 90.4% (95% CI, 87.7%–92.6%), respectively. Conclusion. Surprise questions are useful for screening patients for short survival. However, the high false-positive rates do not allow clinicians to provide definitive prognosis prediction. Implications for Practice: The findings of this study indicate that clinicians can screen patients for 7- or 30-day survival using surprise questions with 90% or more sensitivity. Clinicians cannot provide accurate prognosis estimation, and all patients will not always die within the defined periods. The

  15. Ductile damage prediction in metal forming processes: Advanced modeling and numerical simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saanouni, K.

    2013-05-01

    This paper describes the needs required in modern virtual metal forming including both sheet and bulk metal forming of mechanical components. These concern the advanced modeling of thermo-mechanical behavior including the multiphysical phenomena and their interaction or strong coupling, as well as the associated numerical aspects using fully adaptive simulation strategies. First a survey of advanced constitutive equations accounting for the main thermomechanical phenomena as the thermo-elasto-plastic finite strains with isotropic and kinematic hardenings fully coupled with ductile damage will be presented. Only the macroscopic phenomenological approach with state variables (monoscale approach) will be discussed in the general framework of the rational thermodynamics for generalized micromorphic continua. The micro-macro (multi-scales approach) in the framework of polycrystalline inelasticity is not presented here for the sake of shortness but will be presented during the oral presentation. The main numerical aspects related to the resolution of the associated initial and boundary value problem will be outlined. A fully adaptive numerical methodology will be briefly described and some numerical examples will be given in order to show the high predictive capabilities of this adaptive methodology for virtual metal forming simulations.

  16. Contribution to the development of DOE ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data (CMBE) products: Satellite data over the ARM permanent and AMF sites: Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, B; Dong, X; Xie, S

    2012-05-18

    To support the LLNL ARM infrastructure team Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) data development, the University of North Dakota (UND)'s group will provide the LLNL team the NASA CERES and ISCCP satellite retrieved cloud and radiative properties for the periods when they are available over the ARM permanent research sites. The current available datasets, to date, are as follows: the CERES/TERRA during 200003-200812; the CERES/AQUA during 200207-200712; and the ISCCP during 199601-200806. The detailed parameters list below: (1) CERES Shortwave radiative fluxes (net and downwelling); (2) CERES Longwave radiative fluxes (upwelling) - (items 1 & 2 include both all-sky and clear-sky fluxes); (3) CERES Layered clouds (total, high, middle, and low); (4) CERES Cloud thickness; (5) CERES Effective cloud height; (6) CERES cloud microphysical/optical properties; (7) ISCCP optical depth cloud top pressure matrix; (8) ISCCP derived cloud types (r.g., cirrus, stratus, etc.); and (9) ISCCP infrared derived cloud top pressures. (10) The UND group shall apply necessary quality checks to the original CERES and ISCCP data to remove suspicious data points. The temporal resolution for CERES data should be all available satellite overpasses over the ARM sites; for ISCCP data, it should be 3-hourly. The spatial resolution is the closest satellite field of view observations to the ARM surface sites. All the provided satellite data should be in a format that is consistent with the current ARM CMBE dataset so that the satellite data can be easily merged into the CMBE dataset.

  17. [Plasma Biomarkers as Predictive Factors for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Sorafenib].

    PubMed

    Shiozawa, Kazue; Watanabe, Manabu; Ikehara, Takashi; Matsukiyo, Yasushi; Kogame, Michio; Shinohara, Mie; Kikuchi, Yoshinori; Igarashi, Yoshinori; Sumino, Yasukiyo

    2016-07-01

    We examined plasma biomarkers as predictive factors for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma(ad-HCC)patients treated with sorafenib. We analyzed a-fetoprotein(AFP), AFP-L3, des-g-carboxy prothrombin(DCP), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio(PLR), and vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)before sorafenib therapy, and changes in AFP-L3, NLR, PLR, and VEGF 1 month after sorafenib therapy in 16 patients. High AFP-L3(hazard ratio: 1.058, 95%CI: 1.019-1.098, p=0.003)and high NLR(hazard ratio: 1.475, 95%CI: 1.045-2.082, p=0.027)were significantly associated with poor prognosis in ad-HCC patients treated with sorafenib. There were no significant differences in changes in AFP-L3, NLR, PLR, and VEGF 1 month after sorafenib therapy. We suggest that AFP-L3 and NLR levels before sorafenib therapy in patients with ad-HCC are an important predictive factor for the therapeutic effect of sorafenib and patient survival. PMID:27431630

  18. Longitudinal Temporal and Probabilistic Prediction of Survival in a Cohort of Patients With Advanced Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Perez-Cruz, Pedro E.; dos Santos, Renata; Silva, Thiago Buosi; Crovador, Camila Souza; Nascimento, Maria Salete de Angelis; Hall, Stacy; Fajardo, Julieta; Bruera, Eduardo; Hui, David

    2014-01-01

    Context Survival prognostication is important during end-of-life. The accuracy of clinician prediction of survival (CPS) over time has not been well characterized. Objectives To examine changes in prognostication accuracy during the last 14 days of life in a cohort of patients with advanced cancer admitted to two acute palliative care units and to compare the accuracy between the temporal and probabilistic approaches. Methods Physicians and nurses prognosticated survival daily for cancer patients in two hospitals until death/discharge using two prognostic approaches: temporal and probabilistic. We assessed accuracy for each method daily during the last 14 days of life comparing accuracy at day −14 (baseline) with accuracy at each time point using a test of proportions. Results 6718 temporal and 6621 probabilistic estimations were provided by physicians and nurses for 311 patients, respectively. Median (interquartile range) survival was 8 (4, 20) days. Temporal CPS had low accuracy (10–40%) and did not change over time. In contrast, probabilistic CPS was significantly more accurate (p<.05 at each time point) but decreased close to death. Conclusion Probabilistic CPS was consistently more accurate than temporal CPS over the last 14 days of life; however, its accuracy decreased as patients approached death. Our findings suggest that better tools to predict impending death are necessary. PMID:24746583

  19. Advanced error-prediction LDPC with temperature compensation for highly reliable SSDs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokutomi, Tsukasa; Tanakamaru, Shuhei; Iwasaki, Tomoko Ogura; Takeuchi, Ken

    2015-09-01

    To improve the reliability of NAND Flash memory based solid-state drives (SSDs), error-prediction LDPC (EP-LDPC) has been proposed for multi-level-cell (MLC) NAND Flash memory (Tanakamaru et al., 2012, 2013), which is effective for long retention times. However, EP-LDPC is not as effective for triple-level cell (TLC) NAND Flash memory, because TLC NAND Flash has higher error rates and is more sensitive to program-disturb error. Therefore, advanced error-prediction LDPC (AEP-LDPC) has been proposed for TLC NAND Flash memory (Tokutomi et al., 2014). AEP-LDPC can correct errors more accurately by precisely describing the error phenomena. In this paper, the effects of AEP-LDPC are investigated in a 2×nm TLC NAND Flash memory with temperature characterization. Compared with LDPC-with-BER-only, the SSD's data-retention time is increased by 3.4× and 9.5× at room-temperature (RT) and 85 °C, respectively. Similarly, the acceptable BER is increased by 1.8× and 2.3×, respectively. Moreover, AEP-LDPC can correct errors with pre-determined tables made at higher temperatures to shorten the measurement time before shipping. Furthermore, it is found that one table can cover behavior over a range of temperatures in AEP-LDPC. As a result, the total table size can be reduced to 777 kBytes, which makes this approach more practical.

  20. Investigation to advance prediction techniques of the low-speed aerodynamics of V/STOL aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maskew, B.; Strash, D.; Nathman, J.; Dvorak, F. A.

    1985-01-01

    A computer program, VSAERO, has been applied to a number of V/STOL configurations with a view to advancing prediction techniques for the low-speed aerodynamic characteristics. The program couples a low-order panel method with surface streamline calculation and integral boundary layer procedures. The panel method--which uses piecewise constant source and doublet panels-includes an iterative procedure for wake shape and models boundary layer displacement effect using the source transpiration technique. Certain improvements to a basic vortex tube jet model were installed in the code prior to evaluation. Very promising results were obtained for surface pressures near a jet issuing at 90 deg from a flat plate. A solid core model was used in the initial part of the jet with a simple entrainment model. Preliminary representation of the downstream separation zone significantly improve the correlation. The program accurately predicted the pressure distribution inside the inlet on the Grumman 698-411 design at a range of flight conditions. Furthermore, coupled viscous/potential flow calculations gave very close correlation with experimentally determined operational boundaries dictated by the onset of separation inside the inlet. Experimentally observed degradation of these operational boundaries between nacelle-alone tests and tests on the full configuration were also indicated by the calculation. Application of the program to the General Dynamics STOL fighter design were equally encouraging. Very close agreement was observed between experiment and calculation for the effects of power on pressure distribution, lift and lift curve slope.

  1. Advances and applications of binding affinity prediction methods in drug discovery.

    PubMed

    Parenti, Marco Daniele; Rastelli, Giulio

    2012-01-01

    Nowadays, the improvement of R&D productivity is the primary commitment in pharmaceutical research, both in big pharma and smaller biotech companies. To reduce costs, to speed up the discovery process and to increase the chance of success, advanced methods of rational drug design are very helpful, as demonstrated by several successful applications. Among these, computational methods able to predict the binding affinity of small molecules to specific biological targets are of special interest because they can accelerate the discovery of new hit compounds. Here we provide an overview of the most widely used methods in the field of binding affinity prediction, as well as of our own work in developing BEAR, an innovative methodology specifically devised to overtake some limitations in existing approaches. The BEAR method was successfully validated against different biological targets, and proved its efficacy in retrieving active compounds from virtual screening campaigns. The results obtained so far indicate that BEAR may become a leading tool in the drug discovery pipeline. We primarily discuss advantages and drawbacks of each technique and show relevant examples and applications in drug discovery.

  2. Development and Application of Advanced Weather Prediction Technologies for the Wind Energy Industry (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahoney, W. P.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.; Myers, W.; Johnson, D.

    2010-12-01

    Wind energy decision makers are required to make critical judgments on a daily basis with regard to energy generation, distribution, demand, storage, and integration. Accurate knowledge of the present and future state of the atmosphere is vital in making these decisions. As wind energy portfolios expand, this forecast problem is taking on new urgency because wind forecast inaccuracies frequently lead to substantial economic losses and constrain the national expansion of renewable energy. Improved weather prediction and precise spatial analysis of small-scale weather events are crucial for renewable energy management. In early 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began a collaborative project with Xcel Energy Services, Inc. to perform research and develop technologies to improve Xcel Energy's ability to increase the amount of wind energy in their generation portfolio. The agreement and scope of work was designed to provide highly detailed, localized wind energy forecasts to enable Xcel Energy to more efficiently integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid. The wind prediction technologies are designed to help Xcel Energy operators make critical decisions about powering down traditional coal and natural gas-powered plants when sufficient wind energy is predicted. The wind prediction technologies have been designed to cover Xcel Energy wind resources spanning a region from Wisconsin to New Mexico. The goal of the project is not only to improve Xcel Energy’s wind energy prediction capabilities, but also to make technological advancements in wind and wind energy prediction, expand our knowledge of boundary layer meteorology, and share the results across the renewable energy industry. To generate wind energy forecasts, NCAR is incorporating observations of current atmospheric conditions from a variety of sources including satellites, aircraft, weather radars, ground-based weather stations, wind profilers, and even wind sensors on

  3. Using Daily GCM Rainfall for Crop Yield Predictions: Advances and Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ines, A. M.; Hansen, J. W.; Robertson, A. W.; Baethgen, W.; Sun, L.; Indeje, M.

    2010-12-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) are promising for crop yield predictions not only because of their ability to simulate seasonal climate in advance of the growing season but also of their ability to simulate long-term climate changes. Despite this potential, a lot of challenges exist in using directly raw GCM data to crop models. First, because of the spatial scale mismatch between GCMs and crop models (10^2 km vs. 10^1 m), and second, due to biases and temporal structure mismatches in daily GCM rainfall relative to station observations. Crop growth is very sensitive to daily variations of rainfall thus any mismatch in daily rainfall statistics could adversely impact simulation of crop yields. In view of this, a lot of efforts have been made to correct biases in daily GCM rainfall relative to the climatology of a station or set of stations, and recently on some attempts to correct time structure in climate model rainfall. Here, we will present some advances in tailoring daily GCM rainfall for crop yield predictions and discuss some challenges underlying those methods. Specifically, we will present an improved nested GCM bias correction-stochastic disaggregation (BC-DisAg) method for improving the use of daily GCM rainfall for crop simulations and show some testing and evaluation results in different regions (Northeastern Kenya, Uruguay, Southern and Northeast Brazil). We also examined several ways of weighting GCM grid cells to better summarize their information contents for the nested approach, including inverse-distance weighting, arithmetic averaging, multiple linear regression and genetic algorithms. Finally, we will show a comparison between the GCM bias correction and Model Output Statistics (MOS)-correction downscaling in one of the selected sites at Katumani, Kenya. Our results showed that there is a significant improvement in the simulation of yields if the GCM bias correction (BC) is nested with stochastic disaggregation than just BC alone because of the

  4. In-Service Design & Performance Prediction of Advanced Fusion Material Systems by Computational Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    G. R. Odette; G. E. Lucas

    2005-11-15

    This final report on "In-Service Design & Performance Prediction of Advanced Fusion Material Systems by Computational Modeling and Simulation" (DE-FG03-01ER54632) consists of a series of summaries of work that has been published, or presented at meetings, or both. It briefly describes results on the following topics: 1) A Transport and Fate Model for Helium and Helium Management; 2) Atomistic Studies of Point Defect Energetics, Dynamics and Interactions; 3) Multiscale Modeling of Fracture consisting of: 3a) A Micromechanical Model of the Master Curve (MC) Universal Fracture Toughness-Temperature Curve Relation, KJc(T - To), 3b) An Embrittlement DTo Prediction Model for the Irradiation Hardening Dominated Regime, 3c) Non-hardening Irradiation Assisted Thermal and Helium Embrittlement of 8Cr Tempered Martensitic Steels: Compilation and Analysis of Existing Data, 3d) A Model for the KJc(T) of a High Strength NFA MA957, 3e) Cracked Body Size and Geometry Effects of Measured and Effective Fracture Toughness-Model Based MC and To Evaluations of F82H and Eurofer 97, 3-f) Size and Geometry Effects on the Effective Toughness of Cracked Fusion Structures; 4) Modeling the Multiscale Mechanics of Flow Localization-Ductility Loss in Irradiation Damaged BCC Alloys; and 5) A Universal Relation Between Indentation Hardness and True Stress-Strain Constitutive Behavior. Further details can be found in the cited references or presentations that generally can be accessed on the internet, or provided upon request to the authors. Finally, it is noted that this effort was integrated with our base program in fusion materials, also funded by the DOE OFES.

  5. Predicting compliance for mandible advancement splint therapy in 96 obstructive sleep apnea patients.

    PubMed

    Ingman, Tuula; Arte, Sirpa; Bachour, Adel; Bäck, Leif; Mäkitie, Antti

    2013-12-01

    The treatment of choice in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP). Mandible advancement splint (MAS) offers an option for patients with mild or moderate OSA, who refuse or are unable to tolerate CPAP. The aim of the study was to find predictive factors in OSA for MAS therapy. The study group comprised 96 consecutive OSA patients who were sent for MAS therapy during 2008. Data were collected on the patients' general and dental condition, diagnosis, and treatment for OSA. Panoramic and cephalometric radiographs were analysed. The treatment compliance rate and problems with the use of the MAS were recorded. This rate was 57% and the significant affecting factors were protrusion of the mandible with MAS during the adaptation to the appliance as well as shorter maxillary and mandible lengths. The compliance of the MAS therapy was best in patients with short maxilla and mandible, which should be taken into consideration when planning MAS therapy for OSA patients. Finally, a sleep study should be part of the follow-up in this patient population. PMID:23159421

  6. A Priori Attitudes Predict Amniocentesis Uptake in Women of Advanced Maternal Age: A Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Grinshpun-Cohen, Julia; Miron-Shatz, Talya; Rhee-Morris, Laila; Briscoe, Barbara; Pras, Elon; Towner, Dena

    2015-01-01

    Amniocentesis is an invasive procedure performed during pregnancy to determine, among other things, whether the fetus has Down syndrome. It is often preceded by screening, which gives a probabilistic risk assessment. Thus, ample information is conveyed to women with the goal to inform their decisions. This study examined the factors that predict amniocentesis uptake among pregnant women of advanced maternal age (older than 35 years old at the time of childbirth). Participants filled out a questionnaire regarding risk estimates, demographics, and attitudes on screening and pregnancy termination before their first genetic counseling appointment and were followed up to 24 weeks of gestation. Findings show that women's decisions are not always informed by screening results or having a medical indication. Psychological factors measured at the beginning of pregnancy: amniocentesis risk tolerance, pregnancy termination tolerance, and age risk perception affected amniocentesis uptake. Although most women thought that screening for Down syndrome risk would inform their decision, they later stated other reasons for screening, such as preparing for the possibility of a child with special needs. Findings suggest that women's decisions regarding amniocentesis are driven not only by medical factors, but also by a priori attitudes. The authors believe that these should be addressed in the dialogue on women's informed use of prenatal tests. PMID:26065331

  7. Methodological advances in predicting flow-induced dynamics of plants using mechanical-engineering theory.

    PubMed

    de Langre, Emmanuel

    2012-03-15

    The modeling of fluid-structure interactions, such as flow-induced vibrations, is a well-developed field of mechanical engineering. Many methods exist, and it seems natural to apply them to model the behavior of plants, and potentially other cantilever-like biological structures, under flow. Overcoming this disciplinary divide, and the application of such models to biological systems, will significantly advance our understanding of ecological patterns and processes and improve our predictive capabilities. Nonetheless, several methodological issues must first be addressed, which I describe here using two practical examples that have strong similarities: one from agricultural sciences and the other from nuclear engineering. Very similar issues arise in both: individual and collective behavior, small and large space and time scales, porous modeling, standard and extreme events, trade-off between the surface of exchange and individual or collective risk of damage, variability, hostile environments and, in some aspects, evolution. The conclusion is that, although similar issues do exist, which need to be exploited in some detail, there is a significant gap that requires new developments. It is obvious that living plants grow in and adapt to their environment, which certainly makes plant biomechanics fundamentally distinct from classical mechanical engineering. Moreover, the selection processes in biology and in human engineering are truly different, making the issue of safety different as well. A thorough understanding of these similarities and differences is needed to work efficiently in the application of a mechanistic approach to ecology.

  8. Predicting compliance for mandible advancement splint therapy in 96 obstructive sleep apnea patients.

    PubMed

    Ingman, Tuula; Arte, Sirpa; Bachour, Adel; Bäck, Leif; Mäkitie, Antti

    2013-12-01

    The treatment of choice in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP). Mandible advancement splint (MAS) offers an option for patients with mild or moderate OSA, who refuse or are unable to tolerate CPAP. The aim of the study was to find predictive factors in OSA for MAS therapy. The study group comprised 96 consecutive OSA patients who were sent for MAS therapy during 2008. Data were collected on the patients' general and dental condition, diagnosis, and treatment for OSA. Panoramic and cephalometric radiographs were analysed. The treatment compliance rate and problems with the use of the MAS were recorded. This rate was 57% and the significant affecting factors were protrusion of the mandible with MAS during the adaptation to the appliance as well as shorter maxillary and mandible lengths. The compliance of the MAS therapy was best in patients with short maxilla and mandible, which should be taken into consideration when planning MAS therapy for OSA patients. Finally, a sleep study should be part of the follow-up in this patient population.

  9. Accuracy of three-dimensional soft tissue predictions in orthognathic surgery after Le Fort I advancement osteotomies.

    PubMed

    Ullah, R; Turner, P J; Khambay, B S

    2015-02-01

    Prediction of postoperative facial appearance after orthognathic surgery can be used for communication, managing patients' expectations,avoiding postoperative dissatisfaction and exploring different treatment options. We have assessed the accuracy of 3dMD Vultus in predicting the final 3-dimensional soft tissue facial morphology after Le Fort I advancement osteotomy. We retrospectively studied 13 patients who were treated with a Le Fort I advancement osteotomy alone. We used routine cone-beam computed tomographic (CT) images taken immediately before and a minimum of 6 months after operation, and 3dMD Vultus to virtually reposition the preoperative maxilla and mandible in their post operative positions to generate a prediction of what the soft tissue would look like. Segmented anatomical areas of the predicted mesh were then compared with the actual soft tissue. The means of the absolute distance between the 90th percentile of the mesh points for each region were calculated, and a one-sample Student's t test was used to calculate if the difference differed significantly from 3 mm.The differences in the mean absolute distances between the actual soft tissue and the prediction were significantly below 3 mm for all segmented anatomical areas (p < 0.001), and ranged from 0.65 mm (chin) to 1.17 mm (upper lip). 3dMD Vultus produces clinically satisfactory 3-dimensional facial soft tissue predictions after Le Fort I advancement osteotomy. The mass-spring model for prediction seems to be able to predict the position of the lip and chin, but its ability to predict nasal and paranasal areas could be improved.

  10. Derivation and validation of a prediction rule for estimating advanced colorectal neoplasm risk in average-risk Chinese.

    PubMed

    Cai, Quan-Cai; Yu, En-Da; Xiao, Yi; Bai, Wen-Yuan; Chen, Xing; He, Li-Ping; Yang, Yu-Xiu; Zhou, Ping-Hong; Jiang, Xue-Liang; Xu, Hui-Min; Fan, Hong; Ge, Zhi-Zheng; Lv, Nong-Hua; Huang, Zhi-Gang; Li, You-Ming; Ma, Shu-Ren; Chen, Jie; Li, Yan-Qing; Xu, Jian-Ming; Xiang, Ping; Yang, Li; Lin, Fu-Lin; Li, Zhao-Shen

    2012-03-15

    No prediction rule is currently available for advanced colorectal neoplasms, defined as invasive cancer, an adenoma of 10 mm or more, a villous adenoma, or an adenoma with high-grade dysplasia, in average-risk Chinese. In this study between 2006 and 2008, a total of 7,541 average-risk Chinese persons aged 40 years or older who had complete colonoscopy were included. The derivation and validation cohorts consisted of 5,229 and 2,312 persons, respectively. A prediction rule was developed from a logistic regression model and then internally and externally validated. The prediction rule comprised 8 variables (age, sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, green vegetables, pickled food, fried food, and white meat), with scores ranging from 0 to 14. Among the participants with low-risk (≤3) or high-risk (>3) scores in the validation cohort, the risks of advanced neoplasms were 2.6% and 10.0% (P < 0.001), respectively. If colonoscopy was used only for persons with high risk, 80.3% of persons with advanced neoplasms would be detected while the number of colonoscopies would be reduced by 49.2%. The prediction rule had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74, 95% confidence interval: 0.70, 0.78) and calibration (P = 0.77) and, thus, provides accurate risk stratification for advanced neoplasms in average-risk Chinese. PMID:22328705

  11. APPLICATION OF ADVANCED IN VITRO TECHNIQUES TO MEASURE, UNDERSTAND AND PREDICT THE KINETICS AND MECHANISMS OF XENOBIOTIC METABOLISM

    EPA Science Inventory

    We have developed a research program in metabolism that involves numerous collaborators across EPA as well as other federal and academic labs. A primary goal is to develop and apply advanced in vitro techniques to measure, understand and predict the kinetics and mechanisms of xen...

  12. Development of a Measure for Predicting Learning Advancement through Cooperative Education: Reliability and Validity of the PLACE Scale.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parks, Donald K.; Onwuegbuzie, Anthony J.; Cash, Shannon H.

    2001-01-01

    Exploratory factor analysis of data from 2,309 cooperative education students tested a measure of co-op outcomes. Three factors were identified: work skills development, career development, and academic functions. The Predicting Learner Advancement through Cooperative Education Scale appeared to have good psychometric properties. (Contains 27…

  13. Development of Computational Capabilities to Predict the Corrosion Wastage of Boiler Tubes in Advanced Combustion Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Kung, Steven; Rapp, Robert

    2014-08-31

    coal-fired boilers resulting from the coexistence of sulfur and chlorine in the fuel. A new corrosion mechanism, i.e., “Active Sulfidation Corrosion Mechanism,” has been proposed to account for the accelerated corrosion wastage observed on the furnace walls of utility boilers burning coals containing sulfur and chlorine. In addition, a second corrosion mechanism, i.e., “Active Sulfide-to-Oxide Corrosion Mechanism,” has been identified to account for the rapid corrosion attack on superheaters and reheaters. Both of the newly discovered corrosion mechanisms involve the formation of iron chloride (FeCl2) vapor from iron sulfide (FeS) and HCl, followed by the decomposition of FeCl2 via self-sustaining cycling reactions. For higher alloys containing sufficient chromium, the attack on superheaters and reheaters is dominated by Hot Corrosion in the presence of a fused salt. Furthermore, two stages of the hot corrosion mechanism have been identified and characterized in detail. The initiation of hot corrosion attack induced by molten sulfate leads to Stage 1 “acidic” fluxing and re-precipitation of the protective scale formed initially on the deposit-covered alloy surfaces. Once the protective scale is penetrated, Stage 2 Hot Corrosion is initiated, which is dominated by “basic” fluxing and re-precipitation of the scale in the fused salt. Based on the extensive corrosion information generated from this project, corrosion modeling was performed using non-linear regression analysis. As a result of the modeling efforts, two predictive equations have been formulated, one for furnace walls and the other for superheaters and reheaters. These first-of-the-kind equations can be used to estimate the corrosion rates of boiler tubes based on coal chemistry, alloy compositions, and boiler operating conditions for advanced boiler systems.

  14. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  15. Abs-initio, Predictive Calculations for Optoelectronic and Advanced Materials Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagayoko, Diola

    2010-10-01

    Most density functional theory (DFT) calculations find band gaps that are 30-50 percent smaller than the experimental ones. Some explanations of this serious underestimation by theory include self-interaction and the derivative discontinuity of the exchange correlation energy. Several approaches have been developed in the search for a solution to this problem. Most of them entail some modification of DFT potentials. The Green function and screened Coulomb approximation (GWA) is a non-DFT formalism that has led to some improvements. Despite these efforts, the underestimation problem has mostly persisted in the literature. Using the Rayleigh theorem, we describe a basis set and variational effect inherently associated with calculations that employ a linear combination of atomic orbitals (LCAO) in a variational approach of the Rayleigh-Ritz type. This description concomitantly shows a source of large underestimation errors in calculated band gaps, i.e., an often dramatic lowering of some unoccupied energies on account of the Rayleigh theorem as opposed to a physical interaction. We present the Bagayoko, Zhao, and Williams (BZW) method [Phys. Rev. B 60, 1563 (1999); PRB 74, 245214 (2006); and J. Appl. Phys. 103, 096101 (2008)] that systematically avoids this effect and leads (a) to DFT and LDA calculated band gaps of semiconductors in agreement with experiment and (b) theoretical predictions of band gaps that are confirmed by experiment. Unlike most calculations, BZW computations solve, self-consistently, a system of two coupled equations. DFT-BZW calculated effective masses and optical properties (dielectric functions) also agree with measurements. We illustrate ten years of success of the BZW method with its results for GaN, C, Si, 3C-SIC, 4H-SiC, ZnO, AlAs, Ge, ZnSe, w-InN, c-InN, InAs, CdS, AlN and nanostructures. We conclude with potential applications of the BZW method in optoelectronic and advanced materials research.

  16. Early skin toxicity predicts better outcomes, and early tumor shrinkage predicts better response after cetuximab treatment in advanced colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Kogawa, T; Doi, A; Shimokawa, M; Fouad, T M; Osuga, T; Tamura, F; Mizushima, T; Kimura, T; Abe, S; Ihara, H; Kukitsu, T; Sumiyoshi, T; Yoshizaki, N; Hirayama, M; Sasaki, T; Kawarada, Y; Kitashiro, S; Okushiba, S; Kondo, H; Tsuji, Y

    2015-03-01

    Cetuximab-containing treatments for metastatic colorectal cancer have been shown to have higher overall response rates and longer progression-free and overall survival than other systemic therapies. Cetuximab-related manifestations, including severe skin toxicity and early tumor shrinkage, have been shown to be predictors of response to cetuximab. We hypothesized that early skin toxicity is a predictor of response and better outcomes in patients with advanced colorectal carcinoma. We retrospectively evaluated 62 patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma who had unresectable tumors and were treated with cetuximab in our institution. Skin toxicity grade was evaluated on each treatment day. Tumor size was evaluated using computed tomography prior to treatment and 4-8 weeks after the start of treatment with cetuximab.Patients with early tumor shrinkage after starting treatment with cetuximab had a significantly higher overall response rate (P = 0.0001). Patients with early skin toxicity showed significantly longer overall survival (P = 0.0305), and patients with higher skin toxicity grades had longer progression-free survival (P = 0.0168).We have shown that early tumor shrinkage, early onset of skin toxicity, and high skin toxicity grade are predictors of treatment efficacy and/or outcome in patients with advanced colorectal carcinoma treated with cetuximab.

  17. Predicting Advanced Placement Examination Success from FCAT Scores. Research Brief. Volume 0709

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Froman, Terry; Brown, Shelly; Tirado, Arleti

    2008-01-01

    Advanced Placement courses are offered at M-DCPS for students to acquire college credit or advanced college academic standing. A system has been developed in the past by the College Board to use the PSAT for 10th grade students to estimate their potential for AP Examination success. The same test has recently been applied in this district to 9th…

  18. Predicted reliability of aerospace electronics: Application of two advanced probabilistic concepts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suhir, E.

    Two advanced probabilistic design-for-reliability (PDfR) concepts are addressed and discussed in application to the prediction, quantification and assurance of the aerospace electronics reliability: 1) Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) model, which is an extension of the currently widely used Arrhenius model and, in combination with the exponential law of reliability, enables one to obtain a simple, easy-to-use and physically meaningful formula for the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF) of a material or a device after the given time in operation at the given temperature and under the given stress (not necessarily mechanical), and 2) Extreme Value Distribution (EVD) technique that can be used to assess the number of repetitive loadings that result in the material/device degradation and eventually lead to its failure by closing, in a step-wise fashion, the gap between the bearing capacity (stress-free activation energy) of the material or the device and the demand (loading). It is shown that the material degradation (aging, damage accumulation, flaw propagation, etc.) can be viewed, when BAZ model is considered, as a Markovian process, and that the BAZ model can be obtained as the ultimate steady-state solution to the well-known Fokker-Planck equation in the theory of Markovian processes. It is shown also that the BAZ model addresses the worst, but a reasonably conservative, situation. It is suggested therefore that the transient period preceding the condition addressed by the steady-state BAZ model need not be accounted for in engineering evaluations. However, when there is an interest in understanding the transient degradation process, the obtained solution to the Fokker-Planck equation can be used for this purpose. As to the EVD concept, it attributes the degradation process to the accumulation of damages caused by a train of repetitive high-level loadings, while loadings of levels that are considerably lower than their extreme values do not contribute

  19. Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry; Schifer, Nicholas; Briggs, Maxwell

    2011-01-01

    Past methods of predicting net heat input needed to be validated. Validation effort pursued with several paths including improving model inputs, using test hardware to provide validation data, and validating high fidelity models. Validation test hardware provided direct measurement of net heat input for comparison to predicted values. Predicted value of net heat input was 1.7 percent less than measured value and initial calculations of measurement uncertainty were 2.1 percent (under review). Lessons learned during validation effort were incorporated into convertor modeling approach which improved predictions of convertor efficiency.

  20. Advanced Methods for Determining Prediction Uncertainty in Model-Based Prognostics with Application to Planetary Rovers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Sankararaman, Shankar

    2013-01-01

    Prognostics is centered on predicting the time of and time until adverse events in components, subsystems, and systems. It typically involves both a state estimation phase, in which the current health state of a system is identified, and a prediction phase, in which the state is projected forward in time. Since prognostics is mainly a prediction problem, prognostic approaches cannot avoid uncertainty, which arises due to several sources. Prognostics algorithms must both characterize this uncertainty and incorporate it into the predictions so that informed decisions can be made about the system. In this paper, we describe three methods to solve these problems, including Monte Carlo-, unscented transform-, and first-order reliability-based methods. Using a planetary rover as a case study, we demonstrate and compare the different methods in simulation for battery end-of-discharge prediction.

  1. THERMAL PREDICTIONS OF NEW COMPOSITE MATERIAL DURING INPILE TESTING

    SciTech Connect

    Donna Post Guillen; W. David Swank; Heng Ban; Kurt Harris; Adam Zabriskie

    2011-09-01

    An inpile experiment is currently underway wherein specimens comprised of a newly developed material are being irradiated at Idaho National Laboratory's Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) in conjunction with Utah State University under the auspices of the ATR National Scientific User Facility. This paper provides the thermophysical properties of this new material measured prior to irradiation. After the irradiation campaign is complete, the thermophysical properties of the specimens will be measured and compared to the preirradiation values. A finite-element model was constructed to predict bounding specimen temperatures during irradiation. Results from the thermal hydraulic modeling, including the steady-state temperatures of the specimens within sealed capsules, are presented. After the irradiation campaign is completed, best-estimate thermal predictions will be performed for the individual specimens using the actual as-run irradiation power levels.

  2. Novel Pretreatment Scoring Incorporating C-reactive Protein to Predict Overall Survival in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Sorafenib Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Nakanishi, Hiroyuki; Kurosaki, Masayuki; Tsuchiya, Kaoru; Yasui, Yutaka; Higuchi, Mayu; Yoshida, Tsubasa; Komiyama, Yasuyuki; Takaura, Kenta; Hayashi, Tsuguru; Kuwabara, Konomi; Nakakuki, Natsuko; Takada, Hitomi; Ueda, Masako; Tamaki, Nobuharu; Suzuki, Shoko; Itakura, Jun; Takahashi, Yuka; Izumi, Namiki

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study aimed to build a prediction score of prognosis for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sorafenib treatment. Methods A total of 165 patients with advanced HCC who were treated with sorafenib were analyzed. Readily available baseline factors were used to establish a scoring system for the prediction of survival. Results The median survival time (MST) was 14.2 months. The independent prognostic factors were C-reactive protein (CRP) <1.0 mg/dL [hazard ratio (HR) =0.51], albumin >3.5 g/dL (HR =0.55), alpha-fetoprotein <200 ng/mL (HR =0.45), and a lack of major vascular invasion (HR =0.39). Each of these factors had a score of 1, and after classifying the patients into five groups, the total scores ranged from 0 to 4. Higher scores were linked to significantly longer survival (p<0.0001). Twenty-nine patients (17.6%) with a score of 4 had a MST as long as 36.5 months, whereas MST was as short as 2.4 and 3.7 months for seven (4.2%) and 22 (13.3%) patients with scores of 0 and 1, respectively. Conclusions A novel prognostic scoring system, which includes the CRP level, has the ability to stratify the prognosis of patients with advanced stage HCC after treatment with sorafenib. PMID:27781198

  3. An Integrated Theory for Predicting the Hydrothermomechanical Response of Advanced Composite Structural Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, C. C.; Lark, R. F.; Sinclair, J. H.

    1977-01-01

    An integrated theory is developed for predicting the hydrothermomechanical (HDTM) response of fiber composite components. The integrated theory is based on a combined theoretical and experimental investigation. In addition to predicting the HDTM response of components, the theory is structured to assess the combined hydrothermal effects on the mechanical properties of unidirectional composites loaded along the material axis and off-axis, and those of angleplied laminates. The theory developed predicts values which are in good agreement with measured data at the micromechanics, macromechanics, laminate analysis and structural analysis levels.

  4. How Prognostic and Predictive Biomarkers Are Transforming Our Understanding and Management of Advanced Gastric Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Mulder, Karen; Spratlin, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    Background. Gastric cancer (GC) is the second leading cause of cancer death worldwide. GC is a heterogeneous disease in terms of histology, anatomy, and epidemiology. There is also wide variability in how GC is treated in both the resectable and unresectable settings. Identification of prognostic and predictive biomarkers is critical to help direct and tailor therapy for this deadly disease. Methods. A literature search was done using Medline and MeSH terms for GC and predictive biomarkers and prognostic biomarkers. The search was limited to human subjects and the English language. There was no limit on dates. Published data and unpublished abstracts with clinical relevance were included. Results. Many potential prognostic and predictive biomarkers have been assessed for GC, some of which are becoming practice changing. This review is focused on clinically relevant biomarkers, including EGFR, HER2, various markers of angiogenesis, proto-oncogene MET, and the mammalian target of rapamycin. Conclusion. GC is a deadly and heterogeneous disease for which biomarkers are beginning to change our understanding of prognosis and management. The recognition of predictive biomarkers, such as HER2 and vascular endothelial growth factor, has been an exciting development in the management of GC, validating the use of targeted drugs trastuzumab and ramucirumab. MET is another potential predictive marker that may be targeted in GC with drugs such as rilotumumab, foretinib, and crizotinib. Further identification and validation of prognostic and predictive biomarkers has the potential transform how this deadly disease is managed. PMID:25142842

  5. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E.

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  6. Advanced validation of CFD-FDTD combined method using highly applicable solver for reentry blackout prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Yusuke

    2016-01-01

    An analysis model of plasma flow and electromagnetic waves around a reentry vehicle for radio frequency blackout prediction during aerodynamic heating was developed in this study. The model was validated based on experimental results from the radio attenuation measurement program. The plasma flow properties, such as electron number density, in the shock layer and wake region were obtained using a newly developed unstructured grid solver that incorporated real gas effect models and could treat thermochemically non-equilibrium flow. To predict the electromagnetic waves in plasma, a frequency-dependent finite-difference time-domain method was used. Moreover, the complicated behaviour of electromagnetic waves in the plasma layer during atmospheric reentry was clarified at several altitudes. The prediction performance of the combined model was evaluated with profiles and peak values of the electron number density in the plasma layer. In addition, to validate the models, the signal losses measured during communication with the reentry vehicle were directly compared with the predicted results. Based on the study, it was suggested that the present analysis model accurately predicts the radio frequency blackout and plasma attenuation of electromagnetic waves in plasma in communication.

  7. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

    PubMed

    Keenlyside, N S; Latif, M; Jungclaus, J; Kornblueh, L; Roeckner, E

    2008-05-01

    The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.

  8. Ideal MHD Stability Prediction and Required Power for EAST Advanced Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Junjie; Li, Guoqiang; Qian, Jinping; Liu, Zixi

    2012-11-01

    The Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) is the first fully superconducting tokamak with a D-shaped cross-sectional plasma presently in operation. The ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and required power for the EAST advanced tokamak (AT) scenario with negative central shear and double transport barrier (DTB) are investigated. With the equilibrium code TOQ and stability code GATO, the ideal MHD stability is analyzed. It is shown that a moderate ratio of edge transport barriers' (ETB) height to internal transport barriers' (ITBs) height is beneficial to ideal MHD stability. The normalized beta βN limit is about 2.20 (without wall) and 3.70 (with ideal wall). With the scaling law of energy confinement time, the required heating power for EAST AT scenario is calculated. The total heating power Pt increases as the toroidal magnetic field BT or the normalized beta βN is increased.

  9. Development of Predictive Models of Advanced Propulsion Concepts for Low Cost Space Transportation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morrell, Michael Randy

    2002-01-01

    This final report presents the Graduate Student Research Program (GSRP) work Mr. Morrell was able to complete as a summer intern at NASA MSFS during the summer of 2001, and represents work completed from inception through project termination. The topics include: 1) NASA TD40 Organization; 2) Combustion Physics Lab; 3) Advanced Hydrocarbon Fuels; 4) GSRP Summer Tasks; 5) High Pressure Facility Installation; 6) High Pressure Combustion Issues; 7) High Energy Density Matter (HEDM) Hydrocarbons; and 8) GSRP Summer Intern Summary.

  10. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 2, Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    This volume presents the following appendices: ceramic test specimen drawings and schematics, mixed-mode and biaxial stress fracture of structural ceramics for advanced vehicular heat engines (U. Utah), mode I/mode II fracture toughness and tension/torsion fracture strength of NT154 Si nitride (Brown U.), summary of strength test results and fractography, fractography photographs, derivations of statistical models, Weibull strength plots for fast fracture test specimens, and size functions.

  11. Advances and Challenges In Uncertainty Quantification with Application to Climate Prediction, ICF design and Science Stockpile Stewardship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, R.; Woodward, C. S.; Johannesson, G.; Domyancic, D.; Covey, C. C.; Lucas, D. D.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a critical field within 21st century simulation science that resides at the very center of the web of emerging predictive capabilities. The science of UQ holds the promise of giving much greater meaning to the results of complex large-scale simulations, allowing for quantifying and bounding uncertainties. This powerful capability will yield new insights into scientific predictions (e.g. Climate) of great impact on both national and international arenas, allow informed decisions on the design of critical experiments (e.g. ICF capsule design, MFE, NE) in many scientific fields, and assign confidence bounds to scientifically predictable outcomes (e.g. nuclear weapons design). In this talk I will discuss a major new strategic initiative (SI) we have developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to advance the science of Uncertainty Quantification at LLNL focusing in particular on (a) the research and development of new algorithms and methodologies of UQ as applied to multi-physics multi-scale codes, (b) incorporation of these advancements into a global UQ Pipeline (i.e. a computational superstructure) that will simplify user access to sophisticated tools for UQ studies as well as act as a self-guided, self-adapting UQ engine for UQ studies on extreme computing platforms and (c) use laboratory applications as a test bed for new algorithms and methodologies. The initial SI focus has been on applications for the quantification of uncertainty associated with Climate prediction, but the validated UQ methodologies we have developed are now being fed back into Science Based Stockpile Stewardship (SSS) and ICF UQ efforts. To make advancements in several of these UQ grand challenges, I will focus in talk on the following three research areas in our Strategic Initiative: Error Estimation in multi-physics and multi-scale codes ; Tackling the "Curse of High Dimensionality"; and development of an advanced UQ Computational Pipeline to enable

  12. Predicted and measured boundary layer refraction for advanced turboprop propeller noise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dittmar, James H.; Krejsa, Eugene A.

    1990-01-01

    Currently, boundary layer refraction presents a limitation to the measurement of forward arc propeller noise measured on an acoustic plate in the NASA Lewis 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel. The use of a validated boundary layer refraction model to adjust the data could remove this limitation. An existing boundary layer refraction model is used to predict the refraction for cases where boundary layer refraction was measured. In general, the model exhibits the same qualitative behavior as the measured refraction. However, the prediction method does not show quantitative agreement with the data. In general, it overpredicts the amount of refraction for the far forward angles at axial Mach number of 0.85 and 0.80 and underpredicts the refraction at axial Mach numbers of 0.75 and 0.70. A more complete propeller source description is suggested as a way to improve the prediction method.

  13. Machine learning and statistical methods for the prediction of maximal oxygen uptake: recent advances

    PubMed Central

    Abut, Fatih; Akay, Mehmet Fatih

    2015-01-01

    Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) indicates how many milliliters of oxygen the body can consume in a state of intense exercise per minute. VO2max plays an important role in both sport and medical sciences for different purposes, such as indicating the endurance capacity of athletes or serving as a metric in estimating the disease risk of a person. In general, the direct measurement of VO2max provides the most accurate assessment of aerobic power. However, despite a high level of accuracy, practical limitations associated with the direct measurement of VO2max, such as the requirement of expensive and sophisticated laboratory equipment or trained staff, have led to the development of various regression models for predicting VO2max. Consequently, a lot of studies have been conducted in the last years to predict VO2max of various target audiences, ranging from soccer athletes, nonexpert swimmers, cross-country skiers to healthy-fit adults, teenagers, and children. Numerous prediction models have been developed using different sets of predictor variables and a variety of machine learning and statistical methods, including support vector machine, multilayer perceptron, general regression neural network, and multiple linear regression. The purpose of this study is to give a detailed overview about the data-driven modeling studies for the prediction of VO2max conducted in recent years and to compare the performance of various VO2max prediction models reported in related literature in terms of two well-known metrics, namely, multiple correlation coefficient (R) and standard error of estimate. The survey results reveal that with respect to regression methods used to develop prediction models, support vector machine, in general, shows better performance than other methods, whereas multiple linear regression exhibits the worst performance. PMID:26346869

  14. Machine learning and statistical methods for the prediction of maximal oxygen uptake: recent advances.

    PubMed

    Abut, Fatih; Akay, Mehmet Fatih

    2015-01-01

    Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) indicates how many milliliters of oxygen the body can consume in a state of intense exercise per minute. VO2max plays an important role in both sport and medical sciences for different purposes, such as indicating the endurance capacity of athletes or serving as a metric in estimating the disease risk of a person. In general, the direct measurement of VO2max provides the most accurate assessment of aerobic power. However, despite a high level of accuracy, practical limitations associated with the direct measurement of VO2max, such as the requirement of expensive and sophisticated laboratory equipment or trained staff, have led to the development of various regression models for predicting VO2max. Consequently, a lot of studies have been conducted in the last years to predict VO2max of various target audiences, ranging from soccer athletes, nonexpert swimmers, cross-country skiers to healthy-fit adults, teenagers, and children. Numerous prediction models have been developed using different sets of predictor variables and a variety of machine learning and statistical methods, including support vector machine, multilayer perceptron, general regression neural network, and multiple linear regression. The purpose of this study is to give a detailed overview about the data-driven modeling studies for the prediction of VO2max conducted in recent years and to compare the performance of various VO2max prediction models reported in related literature in terms of two well-known metrics, namely, multiple correlation coefficient (R) and standard error of estimate. The survey results reveal that with respect to regression methods used to develop prediction models, support vector machine, in general, shows better performance than other methods, whereas multiple linear regression exhibits the worst performance.

  15. A hybrid approach to advancing quantitative prediction of tissue distribution of basic drugs in human

    SciTech Connect

    Poulin, Patrick; Ekins, Sean; Theil, Frank-Peter

    2011-01-15

    A general toxicity of basic drugs is related to phospholipidosis in tissues. Therefore, it is essential to predict the tissue distribution of basic drugs to facilitate an initial estimate of that toxicity. The objective of the present study was to further assess the original prediction method that consisted of using the binding to red blood cells measured in vitro for the unbound drug (RBCu) as a surrogate for tissue distribution, by correlating it to unbound tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kpu) of several tissues, and finally to predict volume of distribution at steady-state (V{sub ss}) in humans under in vivo conditions. This correlation method demonstrated inaccurate predictions of V{sub ss} for particular basic drugs that did not follow the original correlation principle. Therefore, the novelty of this study is to provide clarity on the actual hypotheses to identify i) the impact of pharmacological mode of action on the generic correlation of RBCu-Kpu, ii) additional mechanisms of tissue distribution for the outlier drugs, iii) molecular features and properties that differentiate compounds as outliers in the original correlation analysis in order to facilitate its applicability domain alongside the properties already used so far, and finally iv) to present a novel and refined correlation method that is superior to what has been previously published for the prediction of human V{sub ss} of basic drugs. Applying a refined correlation method after identifying outliers would facilitate the prediction of more accurate distribution parameters as key inputs used in physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) and phospholipidosis models.

  16. Multiaxial deformation and life prediction model and experimental data for advanced silicon nitride ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Ding, J.L.; Liu, K.C.; Brinkman, C.R.

    1993-06-01

    This paper summarizes recent experimental results on creep and creep rupture behavior of a commercial grade of Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} ceramic in the temperature range of 1150 to 1300C obtained at ORNL; and introduces a tentative multiaxial deformation and life prediction model for ceramic materials under general thermomechanical loadings. Issues related to the possible standardization of the data analysis methodology and possible future research needs for high temperature structural ceramics in the area of development of data base and life prediction methodology are also discussed.

  17. Advanced turboprop noise prediction: Development of a code at NASA Langley based on recent theoretical results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farassat, F.; Dunn, M. H.; Padula, S. L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of a high speed propeller noise prediction code at Langley Research Center is described. The code utilizes two recent acoustic formulations in the time domain for subsonic and supersonic sources. The structure and capabilities of the code are discussed. Grid size study for accuracy and speed of execution on a computer is also presented. The code is tested against an earlier Langley code. Considerable increase in accuracy and speed of execution are observed. Some examples of noise prediction of a high speed propeller for which acoustic test data are available are given. A brisk derivation of formulations used is given in an appendix.

  18. LiverTox: Advanced QSAR and Toxicogeomic Software for Hepatotoxicity Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, P-Y.; Yuracko, K.

    2011-02-25

    YAHSGS LLC and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) established a CRADA in an attempt to develop a predictive system using a pre-existing ORNL computational neural network and wavelets format. This was in the interest of addressing national needs for toxicity prediction system to help overcome the significant drain of resources (money and time) being directed toward developing chemical agents for commerce. The research project has been supported through an STTR mechanism and funded by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences beginning Phase I in 2004 (CRADA No. ORNL-04-0688) and extending Phase II through 2007 (ORNL NFE-06-00020). To attempt the research objectives and aims outlined under this CRADA, state-of-the-art computational neural network and wavelet methods were used in an effort to design a predictive toxicity system that used two independent areas on which to base the system’s predictions. These two areas were quantitative structure-activity relationships and gene-expression data obtained from microarrays. A third area, using the new Massively Parallel Signature Sequencing (MPSS) technology to assess gene expression, also was attempted but had to be dropped because the company holding the rights to this promising MPSS technology went out of business. A research-scale predictive toxicity database system called Multi-Intelligent System for Toxicogenomic Applications (MISTA) was developed and its feasibility for use as a predictor of toxicological activity was tested. The fundamental focus of the CRADA was an attempt and effort to operate the MISTA database using the ORNL neural network. This effort indicated the potential that such a fully developed system might be used to assist in predicting such biological endpoints as hepatotoxcity and neurotoxicity. The MISTA/LiverTox approach if eventually fully developed might also be useful for automatic processing of microarray data to predict modes of action. A technical paper describing the

  19. Advanced Models and Controls for Prediction and Extension of Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-02-01

    Predictive models of capacity and power fade must consider a multiplicity of degradation modes experienced by Li-ion batteries in the automotive environment. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must presently be absorbed by overdesign and excess warranty costs. To reduce these costs and extend life, degradation models are under development that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. The lifetime models provide engineering feedback for cell, pack and system designs and are being incorporated into real-time control strategies.

  20. Predicting Cost/Reliability/Maintainability of Advanced General Aviation Avionics Equipment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, M. R.; Kamins, M.; Mooz, W. E.

    1978-01-01

    A methodology is provided for assisting NASA in estimating the cost, reliability, and maintenance (CRM) requirements for general avionics equipment operating in the 1980's. Practical problems of predicting these factors are examined. The usefulness and short comings of different approaches for modeling coast and reliability estimates are discussed together with special problems caused by the lack of historical data on the cost of maintaining general aviation avionics. Suggestions are offered on how NASA might proceed in assessing cost reliability CRM implications in the absence of reliable generalized predictive models.

  1. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  2. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    1992-01-01

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  3. Advances in Toxico-Cheminformatics: Supporting a New Paradigm for Predictive Toxicology

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s National Center for Computational Toxicology is building capabilities to support a new paradigm for toxicity screening and prediction through the harnessing of legacy toxicity data, creation of data linkages, and generation of new high-throughput screening (HTS) data. The D...

  4. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Recent Program Advancements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.

    2015-12-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). The CVP Program currently supports multiple projects in areas that are aimed at improved representation of physical processes in global models. Some of the topics that are currently funded include: i) Improved Understanding of Intraseasonal Tropical Variability - DYNAMO field campaign and post -field projects, and the new climate model improvement teams focused on MJO processes; ii) Climate Process Teams (CPTs, co-funded with NSF) with projects focused on Cloud macrophysical parameterization and its application to aerosol indirect effects, and Internal-Wave Driven Mixing in Global Ocean Models; iii) Improved Understanding of Tropical Pacific Processes, Biases, and Climatology; iv) Understanding Arctic Sea Ice Mechanism and Predictability;v) AMOC Mechanisms and Decadal Predictability Recent results from CVP-funded projects will be summarized. Additional information can be found at http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP.

  5. In silico assessment of the acute toxicity of chemicals: recent advances and new model for multitasking prediction of toxic effect.

    PubMed

    Kleandrova, Valeria V; Luan, Feng; Speck-Planche, Alejandro; Cordeiro, M Natália D S

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of acute toxicity is one of the most important stages to ensure the safety of chemicals with potential applications in pharmaceutical sciences, biomedical research, or any other industrial branch. A huge and indiscriminate number of toxicity assays have been carried out on laboratory animals. In this sense, computational approaches involving models based on quantitative-structure activity/toxicity relationships (QSAR/QSTR) can help to rationalize time and financial costs. Here, we discuss the most significant advances in the last 6 years focused on the use of QSAR/QSTR models to predict acute toxicity of drugs/chemicals in laboratory animals, employing large and heterogeneous datasets. The advantages and drawbacks of the different QSAR/QSTR models are analyzed. As a contribution to the field, we introduce the first multitasking (mtk) QSTR model for simultaneous prediction of acute toxicity of compounds by considering different routes of administration, diverse breeds of laboratory animals, and the reliability of the experimental conditions. The mtk-QSTR model was based on artificial neural networks (ANN), allowing the classification of compounds as toxic or non-toxic. This model correctly classified more than 94% of the 1646 cases present in the whole dataset, and its applicability was demonstrated by performing predictions of different chemicals such as drugs, dietary supplements, and molecules which could serve as nanocarriers for drug delivery. The predictions given by the mtk-QSTR model are in very good agreement with the experimental results. PMID:25694074

  6. In silico assessment of the acute toxicity of chemicals: recent advances and new model for multitasking prediction of toxic effect.

    PubMed

    Kleandrova, Valeria V; Luan, Feng; Speck-Planche, Alejandro; Cordeiro, M Natália D S

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of acute toxicity is one of the most important stages to ensure the safety of chemicals with potential applications in pharmaceutical sciences, biomedical research, or any other industrial branch. A huge and indiscriminate number of toxicity assays have been carried out on laboratory animals. In this sense, computational approaches involving models based on quantitative-structure activity/toxicity relationships (QSAR/QSTR) can help to rationalize time and financial costs. Here, we discuss the most significant advances in the last 6 years focused on the use of QSAR/QSTR models to predict acute toxicity of drugs/chemicals in laboratory animals, employing large and heterogeneous datasets. The advantages and drawbacks of the different QSAR/QSTR models are analyzed. As a contribution to the field, we introduce the first multitasking (mtk) QSTR model for simultaneous prediction of acute toxicity of compounds by considering different routes of administration, diverse breeds of laboratory animals, and the reliability of the experimental conditions. The mtk-QSTR model was based on artificial neural networks (ANN), allowing the classification of compounds as toxic or non-toxic. This model correctly classified more than 94% of the 1646 cases present in the whole dataset, and its applicability was demonstrated by performing predictions of different chemicals such as drugs, dietary supplements, and molecules which could serve as nanocarriers for drug delivery. The predictions given by the mtk-QSTR model are in very good agreement with the experimental results.

  7. Advanced Predictive Model and Real-World Results for Medium Concentration CPV

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karney, Bruce; Finot, Marc

    2011-12-01

    Skyline Solar has developed a novel medium concentration PV product. The system is a linear concentrator that tracks the sun with a 1-axis horizontal tracker. Reflectors are used to concentrate sunlight 7-50x using non-imaging optics. The receivers use Silicon cells and passive cooling. The product's design has been guided by a detailed Performance Prediction Tool (PPT) that relates component characteristics and climate data to the overall energy production. In contrast with other tools, the PPT captures the non-linearity of conditions such as weather, system architecture (stringing, shadow management) and the value of energy as a function of time of day and season. This paper describes the key elements of the PPT and compares its predictions to real-world results from different locations with significantly different DNI. Moderate DNI sites are San Jose, California and Kona, Hawaii. The higher DNI site is Nipton, California (DNI ˜7.2). Skyline's PPT accurately predicts the energy harvest for two Skyline Solar systems including the HGS 1000 and the new Skyline Solar X14 System.

  8. Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science.

    PubMed

    Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

    2016-01-01

    One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets. PMID:27532883

  9. Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science

    PubMed Central

    Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

    2016-01-01

    One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets. PMID:27532883

  10. Prediction of Unsteady Blade Surface Pressures on an Advanced Propeller at an Angle of Attack

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1989-01-01

    The numerical solution of the unsteady, three-dimensional, Euler equations is considered in order to obtain the blade surface pressures of an advanced propeller at an angle of attack. The specific configuration considered is the SR7L propeller at cruise conditions with a 4.6 deg inflow angle corresponding to the plus 2 deg nacelle tilt of the Propeller Test Assessment (PTA) flight test condition. The results indicate nearly sinusoidal response of the blade loading, with angle of attack. For the first time, detailed variations of the chordwise loading as a function of azimuthal angle are presented. It is observed that the blade is lightly loaded for part of the revolution and shocks appear from hub to about 80 percent radial station for the highly loaded portion of the revolution.

  11. Predictive and prognostic biomarkers for neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Lim, S H; Chua, W; Henderson, C; Ng, W; Shin, J-S; Chantrill, L; Asghari, R; Lee, C S; Spring, K J; de Souza, P

    2015-10-01

    Locally advanced rectal cancer is regularly treated with trimodality therapy consisting of neoadjuvant chemoradiation, surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. There is a need for biomarkers to assess treatment response, and aid in stratification of patient risk to adapt and personalise components of the therapy. Currently, pathological stage and tumour regression grade are used to assess response. Experimental markers include proteins involved in cell proliferation, apoptosis, angiogenesis, the epithelial to mesenchymal transition and microsatellite instability. As yet, no single marker is sufficiently robust to have clinical utility. Microarrays that screen a tumour for multiple promising candidate markers, gene expression and microRNA profiling will likely have higher yield and it is expected that a combination or panel of markers would prove most useful. Moving forward, utilising serial samples of circulating tumour cells or circulating nucleic acids can potentially allow us to demonstrate tumour heterogeneity, document mutational changes and subsequently measure treatment response. PMID:26032919

  12. Performance Prediction for a Hockey-Puck Silicon Crystal Monochromator at the Advanced Photon Source

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zunping; Rosenbaum, Gerd; Navrotski, Gary

    2014-03-01

    One of the Key Performance Parameters of the upgrade of the Advanced Photon Source (APS) is the increase of the storage ring current from 100 to 150 mA. In order to anticipate the impact of this increased heat load on the X-ray optics of the beamlines, the APS has implemented a systematic review, by means of finite element analysis and computational fluid dynamics, of the thermal performance of the different types of monochromators installed at the highest-heat-load insertion device beamlines. We present here simulations of the performance of a directly liquid nitrogen-cooled silicon crystal, the hockey-puck design. Calculations of the temperature and slope error at multiple ring currents under multiple operational conditions, including the influence of power, cooling, and diffraction surface thickness are included.

  13. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - DYNAMO Recent Project Advancements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.; Higgins, W.

    2013-12-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within the Earth System Science (ESS) Division at NOAA's Climate Program Office. Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO): The Indian Ocean is one of Earth's most sensitive regions because the interactions between ocean and atmosphere there have a discernable effect on global climate patterns. The tropical weather that brews in that region can move eastward along the equator and reverberate around the globe, shaping weather and climate in far-off places. The vehicle for this variability is a phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. The MJO, which originates over the Indian Ocean roughly every 30 to 90 days, is known to influence the Asian and Australian monsoons. It can also enhance hurricane activity in the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, trigger torrential rainfall along the west coast of North America, and affect the onset of El Niño. CVP-funded scientists participated in the DYNAMO field campaign in 2011-12. Results from this international campaign are expected to improve researcher's insights into this influential phenomenon. A better understanding of the processes governing MJO is an essential step toward

  14. MicroRNA-31 Emerges as a Predictive Biomarker of Pathological Response and Outcome in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Caramés, Cristina; Cristobal, Ion; Moreno, Víctor; Marín, Juan P; González-Alonso, Paula; Torrejón, Blanca; Minguez, Pablo; Leon, Ana; Martín, José I; Hernández, Roberto; Pedregal, Manuel; Martín, María J; Cortés, Delia; García-Olmo, Damian; Fernández, María J; Rojo, Federico; García-Foncillas, Jesús

    2016-01-01

    Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision has emerged as the standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients. However, many cases do not respond to neoadjuvant CRT, suffering unnecessary toxicities and surgery delays. Thus, identification of predictive biomarkers for neoadjuvant CRT is a current clinical need. In the present study, microRNA-31 expression was measured in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) biopsies from 78 patients diagnosed with LARC who were treated with neoadjuvant CRT. Then, the obtained results were correlated with clinical and pathological characteristics and outcome. High microRNA-31 (miR-31) levels were found overexpressed in 34.2% of cases. Its overexpression significantly predicted poor pathological response (p = 0.018) and worse overall survival (OS) (p = 0.008). The odds ratio for no pathological response among patients with miR-31 overexpression was 0.18 (Confidence Interval = 0.06 to 0.57; p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis corroborated the clinical impact of miR-31 in determining pathological response to neoadjuvant CRT as well as OS. Altogether, miR-31 quantification emerges as a novel valuable clinical tool to predict both pathological response and outcome in LARC patients. PMID:27271609

  15. MicroRNA-31 Emerges as a Predictive Biomarker of Pathological Response and Outcome in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Caramés, Cristina; Cristobal, Ion; Moreno, Víctor; Marín, Juan P.; González-Alonso, Paula; Torrejón, Blanca; Minguez, Pablo; Leon, Ana; Martín, José I.; Hernández, Roberto; Pedregal, Manuel; Martín, María J.; Cortés, Delia; García-Olmo, Damian; Fernández, María J.; Rojo, Federico; García-Foncillas, Jesús

    2016-01-01

    Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision has emerged as the standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients. However, many cases do not respond to neoadjuvant CRT, suffering unnecessary toxicities and surgery delays. Thus, identification of predictive biomarkers for neoadjuvant CRT is a current clinical need. In the present study, microRNA-31 expression was measured in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) biopsies from 78 patients diagnosed with LARC who were treated with neoadjuvant CRT. Then, the obtained results were correlated with clinical and pathological characteristics and outcome. High microRNA-31 (miR-31) levels were found overexpressed in 34.2% of cases. Its overexpression significantly predicted poor pathological response (p = 0.018) and worse overall survival (OS) (p = 0.008). The odds ratio for no pathological response among patients with miR-31 overexpression was 0.18 (Confidence Interval = 0.06 to 0.57; p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis corroborated the clinical impact of miR-31 in determining pathological response to neoadjuvant CRT as well as OS. Altogether, miR-31 quantification emerges as a novel valuable clinical tool to predict both pathological response and outcome in LARC patients. PMID:27271609

  16. MicroRNA-31 Emerges as a Predictive Biomarker of Pathological Response and Outcome in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Caramés, Cristina; Cristobal, Ion; Moreno, Víctor; Marín, Juan P; González-Alonso, Paula; Torrejón, Blanca; Minguez, Pablo; Leon, Ana; Martín, José I; Hernández, Roberto; Pedregal, Manuel; Martín, María J; Cortés, Delia; García-Olmo, Damian; Fernández, María J; Rojo, Federico; García-Foncillas, Jesús

    2016-06-03

    Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision has emerged as the standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients. However, many cases do not respond to neoadjuvant CRT, suffering unnecessary toxicities and surgery delays. Thus, identification of predictive biomarkers for neoadjuvant CRT is a current clinical need. In the present study, microRNA-31 expression was measured in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) biopsies from 78 patients diagnosed with LARC who were treated with neoadjuvant CRT. Then, the obtained results were correlated with clinical and pathological characteristics and outcome. High microRNA-31 (miR-31) levels were found overexpressed in 34.2% of cases. Its overexpression significantly predicted poor pathological response (p = 0.018) and worse overall survival (OS) (p = 0.008). The odds ratio for no pathological response among patients with miR-31 overexpression was 0.18 (Confidence Interval = 0.06 to 0.57; p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis corroborated the clinical impact of miR-31 in determining pathological response to neoadjuvant CRT as well as OS. Altogether, miR-31 quantification emerges as a novel valuable clinical tool to predict both pathological response and outcome in LARC patients.

  17. Recovery Act. Development and Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Gutierrez, Marte

    2013-12-31

    This research project aims to develop and validate an advanced computer model that can be used in the planning and design of stimulation techniques to create engineered reservoirs for Enhanced Geothermal Systems. The specific objectives of the proposal are to; Develop a true three-dimensional hydro-thermal fracturing simulator that is particularly suited for EGS reservoir creation; Perform laboratory scale model tests of hydraulic fracturing and proppant flow/transport using a polyaxial loading device, and use the laboratory results to test and validate the 3D simulator; Perform discrete element/particulate modeling of proppant transport in hydraulic fractures, and use the results to improve understand of proppant flow and transport; Test and validate the 3D hydro-thermal fracturing simulator against case histories of EGS energy production; and Develop a plan to commercialize the 3D fracturing and proppant flow/transport simulator. The project is expected to yield several specific results and benefits. Major technical products from the proposal include; A true-3D hydro-thermal fracturing computer code that is particularly suited to EGS; Documented results of scale model tests on hydro-thermal fracturing and fracture propping in an analogue crystalline rock; Documented procedures and results of discrete element/particulate modeling of flow and transport of proppants for EGS applications; and Database of monitoring data, with focus of Acoustic Emissions (AE) from lab scale modeling and field case histories of EGS reservoir creation.

  18. Correlation of predicted and measured thermal stresses on an advanced aircraft structure with similar materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    A laboratory heating test simulating hypersonic heating was conducted on a heat-sink type structure to provide basic thermal stress measurements. Six NASTRAN models utilizing various combinations of bar, shear panel, membrane, and plate elements were used to develop calculated thermal stresses. Thermal stresses were also calculated using a beam model. For a given temperature distribution there was very little variation in NASTRAN calculated thermal stresses when element types were interchanged for a given grid system. Thermal stresses calculated for the beam model compared similarly to the values obtained for the NASTRAN models. Calculated thermal stresses compared generally well to laboratory measured thermal stresses. A discrepancy of signifiance occurred between the measured and predicted thermal stresses in the skin areas. A minor anomaly in the laboratory skin heating uniformity resulted in inadequate temperature input data for the structural models.

  19. [Advance in researches on vegetation cover and management factor in the soil erosion prediction model].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yan; Yuan, Jianping; Liu, Baoyuan

    2002-08-01

    Vegetation cover and land management are the main limiting factors of soil erosion, and quantitative evaluation on the effect of different vegetation on soil erosion is essential to land use and soil conservation planning. The vegetation cover and management factor (C) in the universal soil loss equation (USLE) is an index to evaluate this effect, which has been studied deeply and used widely. However, the C factor study is insufficient in China. In order to strengthen the research of C factor, this paper reviewed the developing progress of C factor, and compared the methods of estimating C value in different USLE versions. The relative studies in China were also summarized from the aspects of vegetation canopy coverage, soil surface cover, and root density. Three problems in C factor study were pointed out. The authors suggested that cropland C factor research should be furthered, and its methodology should be unified in China to represent reliable C values for soil loss prediction and conservation planning.

  20. Application of neural networks to prediction of advanced composite structures mechanical response and behavior

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cios, K. J.; Vary, A.; Berke, L.; Kautz, H. E.

    1992-01-01

    Two types of neural networks were used to evaluate acousto-ultrasonic (AU) data for material characterization and mechanical reponse prediction. The neural networks included a simple feedforward network (backpropagation) and a radial basis functions network. Comparisons of results in terms of accuracy and training time are given. Acousto-ultrasonic (AU) measurements were performed on a series of tensile specimens composed of eight laminated layers of continuous, SiC fiber reinforced Ti-15-3 matrix. The frequency spectrum was dominated by frequencies of longitudinal wave resonance through the thickness of the specimen at the sending transducer. The magnitude of the frequency spectrum of the AU signal was used for calculating a stress-wave factor based on integrating the spectral distribution function and used for comparison with neural networks results.

  1. Advanced Prediction of Tool Wear by Taking the Load History into Consideration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ersoy, K.; Nuernberg, G.; Herrmann, G.; Hoffmann, H.

    2007-04-01

    A disadvantage of the conventional methods of simulating the wear occurring in deep drawing processes is that the wear coefficient, and thus wear too, is considered to be constant along loading duration, which, in case of deep drawing, corresponds to sliding distance and number of punch strokes. However, in reality, it is a known fact that wear development is not constant over time. In former studies, the authors presented a method, which makes it possible to consider the number of punch strokes in the simulation of wear. Another enhancement of this method is introduced in this paper. It is proposed to consider wear as a function of wear work instead of the number of punch strokes. Using this approach, the wear coefficients are implemented as a function of wear work and fully take into account the load history of the respective node. This enhancement makes it possible to apply the variable wear coefficients to completely different geometries, where one punch stroke involves different sliding distance or pressure values than the experiments with which the wear coefficients were determined. In this study, deep drawing experiments with a cylindrical cup geometry were carried out, in which the characteristic wear coefficient values as well as their gradients along the life cycle were determined. In this case, the die was produced via rapid tooling techniques. The prediction of tool wear is carried out with REDSY, a wear simulation software which was developed at the Institute of Metal Forming and Casting, TU-Muenchen. The wear predictions made by this software are based on the results of a conventional deep drawing simulation. For the wear modelling a modified Archard model was used.

  2. Godunov-Based Model of Swash Zone Dynamics to Advance Coastal Flood Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shakeri Majd, M.; Sanders, B. F.

    2012-12-01

    Urbanized lowlands in southern California are defended against coastal flooding by sandy beaches that dynamically adjust to changes in water level and wave conditions, particularly during storm events. Recent research has shown that coastal flood impacts are scaled by the volume of beach overtopping flows, and an improved characterization of dynamic overtopping rates is needed to improve coastal flood forecasting (Gallien et al. 2012). However, uncertainty in the beach slope and height makes it difficult to predict the onset of overtopping and the magnitude of resulting flooding. That is, beaches may evolve significantly over a storm event. Sallenger (Sallenger, 2000) describes Impact Levels to distinguish different impact regimes (swash, collision, overwash and inundation) on dunes and barrier islands. Our goal is to model processes in different regimes as was described by him. Godunov-based models adopt a depth-integrated, two-phase approach and the shallow-water hypothesis to resolve flow and sediment transport in a tightly coupled manner that resolves shocks in the air/fluid and fluid/sediment interface. These models are best known in the context of debris flow modeling where the ability to predict the flow of highly concentrated sediment/fluid mixtures is required. Here, the approach is directed at the swash zone. Existing Godunov-based models are reviewed and shown to have drawbacks relative to wetting and drying and "avalanching"—important processes in the swash zone. This nonphysical erosion can be described as the natural tendency of the schemes to smear out steep bed slopes. To denote and reduce these numerical errors, new numerical methods are presented to address these limitations and the resulting model is applied to a set of laboratory-scale test problems. The shallow-water hypothesis limits the applicability of the model to the swash zone, so it is forced by a time series of water level and cross-shore velocity that accounts for surf zone wave

  3. Recent advances in computational predictions of NMR parameters for the structure elucidation of carbohydrates: methods and limitations.

    PubMed

    Toukach, Filip V; Ananikov, Valentine P

    2013-11-01

    All living systems are comprised of four fundamental classes of macromolecules--nucleic acids, proteins, lipids, and carbohydrates (glycans). Glycans play a unique role of joining three principal hierarchical levels of the living world: (1) the molecular level (pathogenic agents and vaccine recognition by the immune system, metabolic pathways involving saccharides that provide cells with energy, and energy accumulation via photosynthesis); (2) the nanoscale level (cell membrane mechanics, structural support of biomolecules, and the glycosylation of macromolecules); (3) the microscale and macroscale levels (polymeric materials, such as cellulose, starch, glycogen, and biomass). NMR spectroscopy is the most powerful research approach for getting insight into the solution structure and function of carbohydrates at all hierarchical levels, from monosaccharides to oligo- and polysaccharides. Recent progress in computational procedures has opened up novel opportunities to reveal the structural information available in the NMR spectra of saccharides and to advance our understanding of the corresponding biochemical processes. The ability to predict the molecular geometry and NMR parameters is crucial for the elucidation of carbohydrate structures. In the present paper, we review the major NMR spectrum simulation techniques with regard to chemical shifts, coupling constants, relaxation rates and nuclear Overhauser effect prediction applied to the three levels of glycomics. Outstanding development in the related fields of genomics and proteomics has clearly shown that it is the advancement of research tools (automated spectrum analysis, structure elucidation, synthesis, sequencing and amplification) that drives the large challenges in modern science. Combining NMR spectroscopy and the computational analysis of structural information encoded in the NMR spectra reveals a way to the automated elucidation of the structure of carbohydrates.

  4. Predictive biomarkers in advance of a companion drug: ahead of their time?

    PubMed

    Kelley, Robin K; Atreya, Chloe; Venook, Alan P; Febbo, Phillip G

    2012-03-01

    Because of a surge in molecular testing capabilities concurrent with the rising numbers of targeted therapies in clinical development, the commercial use of predictive biomarkers before clinical validation is available is a topic of growing relevance to medical oncologists. Increasingly, patients will present questions about, requests for, and results from commercial biomarker tests for their oncologists to address. The sheer numbers of tests reaching the market, along with forecasted American Medical Association reforms in current procedural terminology coding and increasing FDA oversight of in vitro companion diagnostic device development, are likely to draw intense scrutiny to the regulation of commercial molecular testing in the near future, which will also require clinicians to remain abreast of the level of clinical validation of the biomarker tests available in practice. In addition to the direct risks of novel biomarker testing, including financial cost and ethical issues, the indirect risks encompass those associated with any clinical decision based on the biomarker test results. A great need exists for comprehensive and dynamic practice guidelines for all types of biomarker testing according to tumor type. PMID:22393192

  5. The Fitness Landscape of HIV-1 Gag: Advanced Modeling Approaches and Validation of Model Predictions by In Vitro Testing

    PubMed Central

    Omarjee, Saleha; Walker, Bruce D.; Chakraborty, Arup; Ndung'u, Thumbi

    2014-01-01

    Viral immune evasion by sequence variation is a major hindrance to HIV-1 vaccine design. To address this challenge, our group has developed a computational model, rooted in physics, that aims to predict the fitness landscape of HIV-1 proteins in order to design vaccine immunogens that lead to impaired viral fitness, thus blocking viable escape routes. Here, we advance the computational models to address previous limitations, and directly test model predictions against in vitro fitness measurements of HIV-1 strains containing multiple Gag mutations. We incorporated regularization into the model fitting procedure to address finite sampling. Further, we developed a model that accounts for the specific identity of mutant amino acids (Potts model), generalizing our previous approach (Ising model) that is unable to distinguish between different mutant amino acids. Gag mutation combinations (17 pairs, 1 triple and 25 single mutations within these) predicted to be either harmful to HIV-1 viability or fitness-neutral were introduced into HIV-1 NL4-3 by site-directed mutagenesis and replication capacities of these mutants were assayed in vitro. The predicted and measured fitness of the corresponding mutants for the original Ising model (r = −0.74, p = 3.6×10−6) are strongly correlated, and this was further strengthened in the regularized Ising model (r = −0.83, p = 3.7×10−12). Performance of the Potts model (r = −0.73, p = 9.7×10−9) was similar to that of the Ising model, indicating that the binary approximation is sufficient for capturing fitness effects of common mutants at sites of low amino acid diversity. However, we show that the Potts model is expected to improve predictive power for more variable proteins. Overall, our results support the ability of the computational models to robustly predict the relative fitness of mutant viral strains, and indicate the potential value of this approach for understanding viral immune evasion

  6. Executive Summary of the 2015 ISCD Position Development Conference on Advanced Measures From DXA and QCT: Fracture Prediction Beyond BMD.

    PubMed

    Shepherd, John A; Schousboe, John T; Broy, Susan B; Engelke, Klaus; Leslie, William D

    2015-01-01

    There have been many scientific advances in fracture risk prediction beyond bone density. The International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) convened a Position Development Conference (PDC) on the use of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry beyond measurement of bone mineral density for fracture risk assessment, including trabecular bone score and hip geometry measures. Previously, no guidelines for nonbone mineral density DXA measures existed. Furthermore, there have been advances in the analysis of quantitative computed tomography (QCT) including finite element analysis, QCT of the hip, DXA-equivalent hip measurements, and opportunistic screening that were not included in the previous ISCD positions. The topics and questions for consideration were developed by the ISCD Board of Directors and the Scientific Advisory Committee and were designed to address the needs of clinical practitioners. Three task forces were created and asked to conduct comprehensive literature reviews to address specific questions. The task forces included participants from many countries and a variety of interests including academic institutions and private health care delivery organizations. Representatives from industry participated as consultants to the task forces. Task force reports with proposed position statements were then presented to an international panel of experts with backgrounds in bone densitometry. The PDC was held in Chicago, Illinois, USA, contemporaneously with the Annual Meeting of the ISCD, February 26 through February 28, 2015. This Executive Summary describes the methodology of the 2015 PDC on advanced measures from DXA and QCT and summarizes the approved official positions. Six separate articles in this issue will detail the rationale, discussion, and additional research topics for each question the task forces addressed.

  7. HPV Genotypes Predict Survival Benefits From Concurrent Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy in Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Cervix

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Chun-Chieh; Lai, Chyong-Huey; Huang, Yi-Ting; Chao, Angel; Chou, Hung-Hsueh; Hong, Ji-Hong

    2012-11-15

    Purpose: To study the prognostic value of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes in patients with advanced cervical cancer treated with radiation therapy (RT) alone or concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT). Methods and Materials: Between August 1993 and May 2000, 327 patients with advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage III/IVA or stage IIB with positive lymph nodes) were eligible for this study. HPV genotypes were determined using the Easychip Registered-Sign HPV genechip. Outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: We detected 22 HPV genotypes in 323 (98.8%) patients. The leading 4 types were HPV16, 58, 18, and 33. The 5-year overall and disease-specific survival estimates for the entire cohort were 41.9% and 51.4%, respectively. CCRT improved the 5-year disease-specific survival by an absolute 9.8%, but this was not statistically significant (P=.089). There was a significant improvement in disease-specific survival in the CCRT group for HPV18-positive (60.9% vs 30.4%, P=.019) and HPV58-positive (69.3% vs 48.9%, P=.026) patients compared with the RT alone group. In contrast, the differences in survival with CCRT compared with RT alone in the HPV16-positive and HPV-33 positive subgroups were not statistically significant (P=.86 and P=.53, respectively). An improved disease-specific survival was observed for CCRT treated patients infected with both HPV16 and HPV18, but these differenced also were not statistically significant. Conclusions: The HPV genotype may be a useful predictive factor for the effect of CCRT in patients with advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix. Verifying these results in prospective trials could have an impact on tailoring future treatment based on HPV genotype.

  8. The value of lactate dehydrogenase serum levels as a prognostic and predictive factor for advanced pancreatic cancer patients receiving sorafenib

    PubMed Central

    Faloppi, Luca; Bianconi, Maristella; Giampieri, Riccardo; Sobrero, Alberto; Labianca, Roberto; Ferrari, Daris; Barni, Sandro; Aitini, Enrico; Zaniboni, Alberto; Boni, Corrado; Caprioni, Francesco; Mosconi, Stefania; Fanello, Silvia; Berardi, Rossana; Bittoni, Alessandro; Andrikou, Kalliopi; Cinquini, Michela; Torri, Valter; Scartozzi, Mario; Cascinu, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    Although lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) serum levels, indirect markers of angiogenesis, are associated with a worse outcome in several tumours, their prognostic value is not defined in pancreatic cancer. Moreover, high levels are associated even with a lack of efficacy of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, contributing to explain negative results in clinical trials. We assessed the role of LDH in advanced pancreatic cancer receiving sorafenib. Seventy-one of 114 patients included in the randomised phase II trial MAPS (chemotherapy plus or not sorafenib) and with available serum LDH levels, were included in this analysis. Patients were categorized according to serum LDH levels (LDH ≤vs.> upper normal rate). A significant difference was found in progression free survival (PFS) and in overall survival (OS) between patients with LDH values under or above the cut-off (PFS: 5.2 vs. 2.7 months, p = 0.0287; OS: 10.7 vs. 5.9 months, p = 0.0021). After stratification according to LDH serum levels and sorafenib treatment, patients with low LDH serum levels treated with sorafenib showed an advantage in PFS (p = 0.05) and OS (p = 0.0012). LDH appears to be a reliable parameter to assess the prognosis of advanced pancreatic cancer patients, and it may be a predictive parameter to select patients candidate to receive sorafenib. PMID:26397228

  9. The value of lactate dehydrogenase serum levels as a prognostic and predictive factor for advanced pancreatic cancer patients receiving sorafenib.

    PubMed

    Faloppi, Luca; Bianconi, Maristella; Giampieri, Riccardo; Sobrero, Alberto; Labianca, Roberto; Ferrari, Daris; Barni, Sandro; Aitini, Enrico; Zaniboni, Alberto; Boni, Corrado; Caprioni, Francesco; Mosconi, Stefania; Fanello, Silvia; Berardi, Rossana; Bittoni, Alessandro; Andrikou, Kalliopi; Cinquini, Michela; Torri, Valter; Scartozzi, Mario; Cascinu, Stefano

    2015-10-27

    Although lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) serum levels, indirect markers of angiogenesis, are associated with a worse outcome in several tumours, their prognostic value is not defined in pancreatic cancer. Moreover, high levels are associated even with a lack of efficacy of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, contributing to explain negative results in clinical trials. We assessed the role of LDH in advanced pancreatic cancer receiving sorafenib. Seventy-one of 114 patients included in the randomised phase II trial MAPS (chemotherapy plus or not sorafenib) and with available serum LDH levels, were included in this analysis. Patients were categorized according to serum LDH levels (LDH ≤ vs.> upper normal rate). A significant difference was found in progression free survival (PFS) and in overall survival (OS) between patients with LDH values under or above the cut-off (PFS: 5.2 vs. 2.7 months, p = 0.0287; OS: 10.7 vs. 5.9 months, p = 0.0021). After stratification according to LDH serum levels and sorafenib treatment, patients with low LDH serum levels treated with sorafenib showed an advantage in PFS (p = 0.05) and OS (p = 0.0012). LDH appears to be a reliable parameter to assess the prognosis of advanced pancreatic cancer patients, and it may be a predictive parameter to select patients candidate to receive sorafenib. PMID:26397228

  10. Immunohistochemical prediction of lapatinib efficacy in advanced HER2-positive breast cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Duchnowska, Renata; Wysocki, Piotr J.; Korski, Konstanty; Czartoryska-Arłukowicz, Bogumiła; Niwińska, Anna; Orlikowska, Marlena; Radecka, Barbara; Studziński, Maciej; Demlova, Regina; Ziółkowska, Barbara; Merdalska, Monika; Hajac, Łukasz; Myśliwiec, Paulina; Zuziak, Dorota; Dębska-Szmich, Sylwia; Lang, Istvan; Foszczyńska-Kłoda, Małgorzata; Karczmarek-Borowska, Bożenna; Żawrocki, Anton; Kowalczyk, Anna; Biernat, Wojciech; Jassem, Jacek

    2016-01-01

    Molecular mechanisms of lapatinib resistance in breast cancer are not well understood. The aim of this study was to correlate expression of selected proteins involved in ErbB family signaling pathways with clinical efficacy of lapatinib. Study group included 270 HER2-positive advanced breast cancer patients treated with lapatinib and capecitabine. Immunohistochemical expression of phosphorylated adenosine monophosphate-activated protein (p-AMPK), mitogen-activated protein kinase (p-MAPK), phospho (p)-p70S6K, cyclin E, phosphatase and tensin homolog were analyzed in primary breast cancer samples. The best discriminative value for progression-free survival (PFS) was established for each biomarker and subjected to multivariate analysis. At least one biomarker was determined in 199 patients. Expression of p-p70S6K was independently associated with longer (HR 0.45; 95% CI: 0.25–0.81; p = 0.009), and cyclin E with shorter PFS (HR 1.83; 95% CI: 1.06–3.14; p = 0.029). Expression of p-MAPK (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.13–2.29; p = 0.009) and cyclin E (HR 2.99; 95% CI: 1.29–6.94; p = 0.011) was correlated with shorter, and expression of estrogen receptor (HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.43–0.98; p = 0.041) with longer overall survival. Expression of p-AMPK negatively impacted response to treatment (HR 3.31; 95% CI 1.48–7.44; p = 0.004) and disease control (HR 3.07; 95% CI 1.25–7.58; p = 0.015). In conclusion: the efficacy of lapatinib seems to be associated with the activity of downstream signaling pathways – AMPK/mTOR and Ras/Raf/MAPK. Further research is warranted to assess the clinical utility of these data and to determine a potential role of combining lapatinib with MAPK pathway inhibitors. PMID:26623720

  11. Numerical Simulations of Optical Turbulence Using an Advanced Atmospheric Prediction Model: Implications for Adaptive Optics Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alliss, R.

    2014-09-01

    Optical turbulence (OT) acts to distort light in the atmosphere, degrading imagery from astronomical telescopes and reducing the data quality of optical imaging and communication links. Some of the degradation due to turbulence can be corrected by adaptive optics. However, the severity of optical turbulence, and thus the amount of correction required, is largely dependent upon the turbulence at the location of interest. Therefore, it is vital to understand the climatology of optical turbulence at such locations. In many cases, it is impractical and expensive to setup instrumentation to characterize the climatology of OT, so numerical simulations become a less expensive and convenient alternative. The strength of OT is characterized by the refractive index structure function Cn2, which in turn is used to calculate atmospheric seeing parameters. While attempts have been made to characterize Cn2 using empirical models, Cn2 can be calculated more directly from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) simulations using pressure, temperature, thermal stability, vertical wind shear, turbulent Prandtl number, and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE). In this work we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) NWP model to generate Cn2 climatologies in the planetary boundary layer and free atmosphere, allowing for both point-to-point and ground-to-space seeing estimates of the Fried Coherence length (ro) and other seeing parameters. Simulations are performed using a multi-node linux cluster using the Intel chip architecture. The WRF model is configured to run at 1km horizontal resolution and centered on the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) of the Big Island. The vertical resolution varies from 25 meters in the boundary layer to 500 meters in the stratosphere. The model top is 20 km. The Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) TKE scheme has been modified to diagnose the turbulent Prandtl number as a function of the Richardson number, following observations by Kondo and others. This modification

  12. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    SciTech Connect

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  13. Advanced glycation end products and their circulating receptors predict cardiovascular disease mortality in older community-dwelling women

    PubMed Central

    Semba, Richard D.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Sun, Kai; Beck, Justine; Dalal, Mansi; Varadhan, Ravi; Walston, Jeremy; Guralnik, Jack M.; Fried, Linda P.

    2008-01-01

    Objective To characterize the relationship between advanced glycation end products (AGEs) and circulating receptors for AGEs (RAGE) with cardiovascular disease mortality. Methods The relationships between serum AGEs, total RAGE (sRAGE), and endogenous secretory RAGE (esRAGE), and mortality were characterized in 559 community-dwelling women, ≥65 years, in Baltimore, Maryland. Results During 4.5 years of follow-up, 123 (22%) women died, of whom 54 died with cardiovascular disease. The measure of serum AGEs was carboxymethyl-lysine (CML), a dominant AGE. Serum CML predicted cardiovascular disease mortality (Hazards Ratio [H.R.] for highest versus lower three quartiles 1.94, 95% Confidence Interval [C.I.] 1.08-3.48, P = 0.026), after adjusting for age, race, body mass index, and renal insufficiency. Serum sRAGE (ng/mL) and esRAGE (ng/mL) predicted cardiovascular disease mortality (H.R. per 1 Standard Deviation [S.D.] 1.27, 95% C.I. 0.98-1.65, P = 0.07; H.R. 1.28, 95% C.I. 1.02-1.63, P = 0.03), after adjusting for the same covariates. Among non-diabetic women, serum CML, sRAGE, and esRAGE, respectively, predicted cardiovascular disease mortality (H.R. for highest versus lower three quartiles, 2.29, 95% C.I. 1.21-4.34, P = 0.01; H.R. per 1 S.D., 1.24, 95% C.I. 0.92-1.65, P = 0.16; H.R. per 1 S.D. 1.45, 95% C.I. 1.08-1.93, P = 0.01), after adjusting for the same covariates. Conclusions High circulating AGEs and RAGE predict cardiovascular disease mortality among older community-dwelling women. AGEs are a potential target for interventions, as serum AGEs can be lowered by change in dietary pattern and pharmacological treatment. PMID:19448391

  14. Prognostic and Predictive Value of Baseline and Posttreatment Molecular Marker Expression in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Treated With Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Bertolini, Federica . E-mail: bertolini.federica@policlinico.mo.it; Bengala, Carmelo; Losi, Luisa; Pagano, Maria; Iachetta, Francesco; Dealis, Cristina; Jovic, Gordana; Depenni, Roberta; Zironi, Sandra; Falchi, Anna Maria; Luppi, Gabriele; Conte, Pier Franco

    2007-08-01

    Purpose: To evaluate expression of a panel of molecular markers, including p53, p21, MLH1, MSH2, MIB-1, thymidylate synthase, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), and tissue vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), before and after treatment in patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer, to correlate the constitutive profile and dynamics of expression with pathologic response and outcome. Methods and Materials: Expression of biomarkers was evaluated by immunohistochemistry in tumor samples from 91 patients with clinical Stage II and III rectal cancer treated with preoperative pelvic radiotherapy (50 Gy) plus concurrent 5-fluorouracil by continuous intravenous infusion. Results: A pathologic complete remission was observed in 14 patients (15.4%). Patients with MLH1-positive tumors had a higher pathologic complete response rate (24.3% vs. 9.4%; p = 0.055). Low expression of constitutive p21, absence of EGFR expression after chemoradiotherapy, and high Dworak's tumor regression grade (TRG) were significantly associated with improved disease-free survival and overall survival. A high MIB-1 value after chemoradiotherapy was significantly associated with worse overall survival. Multivariate analysis confirmed the prognostic value of constitutive p21 expression as well as EGFR expression and MIB-1 value after chemoradiotherapy among patients not achieving TRG 3-4. Conclusions: In our study, we observed the independent prognostic value of EGFR expression after chemoradiotherapy on disease-free survival. Moreover, our study suggests that a constitutive high p21 expression and a high MIB-1 value after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy treatment could predict worse outcome in locally advanced rectal cancer.

  15. Primary Tumor Necrosis Predicts Distant Control in Locally Advanced Soft-Tissue Sarcomas After Preoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    MacDermed, Dhara M.; Miller, Luke L.; Peabody, Terrance D.; Simon, Michael A.; Luu, Hue H.; Haydon, Rex C.; Montag, Anthony G.; Undevia, Samir D.

    2010-03-15

    Purpose: Various neoadjuvant approaches have been evaluated for the treatment of locally advanced soft-tissue sarcomas. This retrospective study describes a uniquely modified version of the Eilber regimen developed at the University of Chicago. Methods and Materials: We treated 34 patients (28 Stage III and 6 Stage IV) with locally advanced soft-tissue sarcomas of an extremity between 1995 and 2008. All patients received preoperative therapy including ifosfamide (2.5 g/m2 per day for 5 days) with concurrent radiation (28 Gy in 3.5-Gy daily fractions), sandwiched between various chemotherapy regimens. Postoperatively, 47% received further adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: Most tumors (94%) were Grade 3, and all were T2b, with a median size of 10.3 cm. Wide excision was performed in 29 patients (85%), and 5 required amputation. Of the resected tumor specimens, 50% exhibited high (>=90%) treatment-induced necrosis and 11.8% had a complete pathologic response. Surgical margins were negative in all patients. The 5-year survival rate was 42.3% for all patients and 45.2% for Stage III patients. For limb-preservation patients, the 5-year local control rate was 89.0% and reoperation was required for wound complications in 17.2%. The 5-year freedom-from-distant metastasis rate was 53.4% (Stage IV patients excluded), and freedom from distant metastasis was superior if treatment-induced tumor necrosis was 90% or greater (84.6% vs. 19.9%, p = 0.02). Conclusions: This well-tolerated concurrent chemoradiotherapy approach yields excellent rates of limb preservation and local control. The resulting treatment-induced necrosis rates are predictive of subsequent metastatic risk, and this information may provide an opportunity to guide postoperative systemic therapies.

  16. Temperature and Material Flow Prediction in Friction-Stir Spot Welding of Advanced High-Strength Steel

    SciTech Connect

    Miles, Michael; Karki, U.; Hovanski, Yuri

    2014-10-01

    Friction-stir spot welding (FSSW) has been shown to be capable of joining advanced high-strength steel, with its flexibility in controlling the heat of welding and the resulting microstructure of the joint. This makes FSSW a potential alternative to resistance spot welding if tool life is sufficiently high, and if machine spindle loads are sufficiently low that the process can be implemented on an industrial robot. Robots for spot welding can typically sustain vertical loads of about 8 kN, but FSSW at tool speeds of less than 3000 rpm cause loads that are too high, in the range of 11–14 kN. Therefore, in the current work, tool speeds of 5000 rpm were employed to generate heat more quickly and to reduce welding loads to acceptable levels. Si3N4 tools were used for the welding experiments on 1.2-mm DP 980 steel. The FSSW process was modeled with a finite element approach using the Forge* software. An updated Lagrangian scheme with explicit time integration was employed to predict the flow of the sheet material, subjected to boundary conditions of a rotating tool and a fixed backing plate. Material flow was calculated from a velocity field that is two-dimensional, but heat generated by friction was computed by a novel approach, where the rotational velocity component imparted to the sheet by the tool surface was included in the thermal boundary conditions. An isotropic, viscoplastic Norton-Hoff law was used to compute the material flow stress as a function of strain, strain rate, and temperature. The model predicted welding temperatures to within percent, and the position of the joint interface to within 10 percent, of the experimental results.

  17. Validity of APCS score as a risk prediction score for advanced colorectal neoplasia in Chinese asymptomatic subjects

    PubMed Central

    Li, Wenbin; Zhang, Lili; Hao, Jianyu; Wu, Yongdong; Lu, Di; Zhao, Haiying; Wang, Zhenjie; Xu, Tianming; Yang, Hong; Qian, Jiaming; Li, Jingnan

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS) score is a risk-stratification tool that helps predict the risk for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) in asymptomatic Asian populations, but has not yet been assessed for its validity of use in Mainland China. The aim of the study was to assess the validity of APCS score in asymptomatic Chinese population, and to identify other risk factors associated with ACN. Asymptomatic subjects (N = 1010) who underwent colonoscopy screening between 2012 and 2014 in Beijing were enrolled. APCS scores based on questionnaires were used to stratify subjects into high, moderate, and average-risk tiers. Cochran–Armitage test for trend was used to assess the association between ACN and risk tiers. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed with ACN as the outcome, adjusting for APCS score, body mass index, alcohol consumption, self-reported diabetes, and use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs as independent variables. The average age was 53.5 (standard deviation 8.4) years. The prevalence of ACN was 4.1% overall, and in the high, moderate, and average-risk tiers, the prevalence was 8.8%, 2.83%, and 1.55%, respectively (P < 0.001). High-risk tier had 3.3 and 6.1-fold increased risk of ACN as compared with those in the moderate and average-risk tiers, respectively. In univariate analysis, high-risk tier, obesity, diabetes, and alcohol consumption were associated with ACN. In multivariate analysis, only high-risk tier was an independent predictor of ACN. The APCS score can effectively identify a subset of asymptomatic Chinese population at high risk for ACN. Further studies are required to identify other risk factors, and the acceptability of the score to the general population will need to be further examined. PMID:27741134

  18. Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for Improved Regional Weather Prediction and Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pagano, Thomas S.; Chahine, Moustafa T.; Susskind, Joel

    2008-01-01

    Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g., the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on Met Op) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1 km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

  19. Iron Levels in Hepatocytes and Portal Tract Cells Predict Progression and Outcome of Patients with Advanced Chronic Hepatitis C1

    PubMed Central

    Lambrecht, Richard W.; Sterling, Richard K.; Naishadham, Deepa; Stoddard, Anne M.; Rogers, Thomas; Morishima, Chihiro; Morgan, Timothy R.; Bonkovsky, Herbert L.

    2011-01-01

    Background & Aims Iron might influence severity and progression of non-hemochromatotic liver diseases. We assessed the relationships between iron, variants in HFE, and progression and outcomes using data from the HALT-C Trial. We determined whether therapy with pegylated interferon (PegIFN) affects iron variables. Methods Participants were randomly assigned to groups given long-term therapy with PegIFN (n=400) or no therapy (n=413) for 3.5 y and followed for up to 8.7 y (median 6.0 y). Associations between patient characteristics and iron variables, at baseline and over time, were made using Kaplan-Meier analyses, Cox regression models, and repeated measures analysis of covariance. Iron was detected by Prussian blue staining. Results Patients with poor outcomes (increase in Child-Turcotte-Pugh score to ≥ 7, development of ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatocellular carcinoma, death) had significantly higher baseline scores for stainable iron in hepatocytes and cells in portal tracts than those without outcomes. Staining for iron in portal triads correlated with lobular and total Ishak inflammatory and fibrosis scores (P<0.0001). High baseline levels of iron in triads increased the risk for poor outcome (hazard ratio=1.35, P=0.02). Iron staining decreased in hepatocytes but increased in portal stromal cells over time (P<0.0001). Serum levels of iron and total iron binding capacity decreased significantly over time (P <0.0001), as did serum ferritin (P=0.0003). Long-term therapy with PegIFN did not affect levels of iron staining. Common variants in HFE did not correlate with outcomes, including development of hepatocellular carcinoma. Conclusions Degree of stainable iron in hepatocytes and portal tract cells predicts progression and clinical and histological outcomes of patients with advanced chronic hepatitis C. Long-term therapy with low-dose PegIFN did not improve outcomes or iron variables. PMID:21335007

  20. Systemic inflammatory status at baseline predicts bevacizumab benefit in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Botta, Cirino; Barbieri, Vito; Ciliberto, Domenico; Rossi, Antonio; Rocco, Danilo; Addeo, Raffaele; Staropoli, Nicoletta; Pastina, Pierpaolo; Marvaso, Giulia; Martellucci, Ignazio; Guglielmo, Annamaria; Pirtoli, Luigi; Sperlongano, Pasquale; Gridelli, Cesare; Caraglia, Michele; Tassone, Pierfrancesco; Tagliaferri, Pierosandro; Correale, Pierpaolo

    2013-01-01

    Bevacizumab is a humanized anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody able to produce clinical benefit in advanced non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients when combined to chemotherapy. At present, while there is a rising attention to bevacizumab-related adverse events and costs, no clinical or biological markers have been identified and validated for baseline patient selection. Preclinical findings suggest an important role for myeloid-derived inflammatory cells, such as neutrophils and monocytes, in the development of VEGF-independent angiogenesis. We conducted a retrospective analysis to investigate the role of peripheral blood cells count and of an inflammatory index, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), as predictors of clinical outcome in NSCLC patients treated with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy. One hundred twelve NSCLC patients treated with chemotherapy ± bevacizumab were retrospectively evaluated for the predictive value of clinical or laboratory parameters correlated with inflammatory status. Univariate analysis revealed that a high number of circulating neutrophils and monocytes as well as a high NLR were associated with shorter progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in bevacizumab-treated patients only. We have thus developed a model based on the absence or the presence of at least one of the above-mentioned inflammatory parameters. We found that the absence of all variables strongly correlated with longer PFS and OS (9.0 vs. 7.0 mo, HR: 0.39, p = 0.002; and 20.0 vs. 12.0 mo, HR: 0.29, p < 0.001 respectively) only in NSCLC patients treated with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy. Our results suggest that a baseline systemic inflammatory status is marker of resistance to bevacizumab treatment in NSCLC patients. PMID:23760488

  1. Comparison of the PLTEMP code flow instability predictions with measurements made with electrically heated channels for the advanced test reactor.

    SciTech Connect

    Feldman, E.

    2011-06-09

    When the University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR) was designed in the 1960s the potential for fuel element burnout by a phenomenon referred to at that time as 'autocatalytic vapor binding' was of serious concern. This type of burnout was observed to occur at power levels considerably lower than those that were known to cause critical heat flux. The conversion of the MURR from HEU fuel to LEU fuel will probably require significant design changes, such as changes in coolant channel thicknesses, that could affect the thermal-hydraulic behavior of the reactor core. Therefore, the redesign of the MURR to accommodate an LEU core must address the same issues of fuel element burnout that were of concern in the 1960s. The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) was designed at about the same time as the MURR and had similar concerns with regard to fuel element burnout. These concerns were addressed in the ATR by two groups of thermal-hydraulic tests that employed electrically heated simulated fuel channels. The Croft (1964), Reference 1, tests were performed at ANL. The Waters (1966), Reference 2, tests were performed at Hanford Laboratories in Richland Washington. Since fuel element surface temperatures rise rapidly as burnout conditions are approached, channel surface temperatures were carefully monitored in these experiments. For self-protection, the experimental facilities were designed to cut off the electric power when rapidly increasing surface temperatures were detected. In both the ATR reactor and in the tests with electrically heated channels, the heated length of the fuel plate was 48 inches, which is about twice that of the MURR. Whittle and Forgan (1967) independently conducted tests with electrically heated rectangular channels that were similar to the tests by Croft and by Walters. In the Whittle and Forgan tests the heated length of the channel varied among the tests and was between 16 and 24 inches. Both Waters and Whittle and Forgan show that the cause of the

  2. Soil-to-plant transfer factors of radioactive Ca, Sm and Pd isotopes: critical assessment of the use of analogies to derive best-estimates from existing non-specific data.

    PubMed

    Henner, Pascale; Hurtevent, Pierre; Thiry, Yves

    2014-10-01

    (45)Ca, (151)Sm and (107)Pd are three radionuclides present in low to intermediate in activity radioactive wastes for which no soil-to-plant Transfer Factors (TF) values are available to be used in biosphere models for Ecological Risk Assessment. In the absence of specific radioecological studies, this work reviews and analyzes the existing literature for stable isotopes of Pd, Sm and Ca in order to derive best estimates for TF values that could be used as Transfer Factors. Alternative methods of extrapolation are also critically assessed. The values have been classified according to climatic zone, plant class and soil type for each element. The overall geometric mean TF values (for all plants and conditions) was calculated as 8.4E-02 for Pd, for which the value of radioRu in TRS-472 is also available. The mean TF for Sm was 4.2E-04. This value was lower than the TF values for radioactive Ce that are proposed as alternative values for Sm in TRS-472. The former may be relevant for long term assessments and the latter could possibly used to describe the short term (151)Sm post-release behaviour. The mean value for Ca is 2.3E-01 but varies considerably among plants of a given class due to the variety of plant Ca uptake behaviors. Alternatively, to limit this variability, Ca data content for dry plant matter, as analyzed using the phylogenetic method, could be used to derive TF values if the conservation of isotopic ratio of (45)Ca to stable Ca in soils and in plants hypothesis is taken into account. The TF for Ca in sub-tropical zones is 10-fold lower than in temperate zones. There is a lot of data available about exchangeable Ca in soil, which mean that we could calculate an available TF. The analysis shows that Ca bioavailability is also a key factor within transfer.

  3. Soil-to-plant transfer factors of radioactive Ca, Sm and Pd isotopes: critical assessment of the use of analogies to derive best-estimates from existing non-specific data.

    PubMed

    Henner, Pascale; Hurtevent, Pierre; Thiry, Yves

    2014-10-01

    (45)Ca, (151)Sm and (107)Pd are three radionuclides present in low to intermediate in activity radioactive wastes for which no soil-to-plant Transfer Factors (TF) values are available to be used in biosphere models for Ecological Risk Assessment. In the absence of specific radioecological studies, this work reviews and analyzes the existing literature for stable isotopes of Pd, Sm and Ca in order to derive best estimates for TF values that could be used as Transfer Factors. Alternative methods of extrapolation are also critically assessed. The values have been classified according to climatic zone, plant class and soil type for each element. The overall geometric mean TF values (for all plants and conditions) was calculated as 8.4E-02 for Pd, for which the value of radioRu in TRS-472 is also available. The mean TF for Sm was 4.2E-04. This value was lower than the TF values for radioactive Ce that are proposed as alternative values for Sm in TRS-472. The former may be relevant for long term assessments and the latter could possibly used to describe the short term (151)Sm post-release behaviour. The mean value for Ca is 2.3E-01 but varies considerably among plants of a given class due to the variety of plant Ca uptake behaviors. Alternatively, to limit this variability, Ca data content for dry plant matter, as analyzed using the phylogenetic method, could be used to derive TF values if the conservation of isotopic ratio of (45)Ca to stable Ca in soils and in plants hypothesis is taken into account. The TF for Ca in sub-tropical zones is 10-fold lower than in temperate zones. There is a lot of data available about exchangeable Ca in soil, which mean that we could calculate an available TF. The analysis shows that Ca bioavailability is also a key factor within transfer. PMID:24956582

  4. The weather roulette: assessing the economic value of seasonal wind speed predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christel, Isadora; Cortesi, Nicola; Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Soret, Albert; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

    2016-04-01

    Climate prediction is an emerging and highly innovative research area. For the wind energy sector, predicting the future variability of wind resources over the coming weeks or seasons is especially relevant to quantify operation and maintenance logistic costs or to inform energy trading decision with potential cost savings and/or economic benefits. Recent advances in climate predictions have already shown that probabilistic forecasting can improve the current prediction practices, which are based in the use of retrospective climatology and the assumption that what happened in the past is the best estimation of future conditions. Energy decision makers now have this new set of climate services but, are they willing to use them? Our aim is to properly explain the potential economic benefits of adopting probabilistic predictions, compared with the current practice, by using the weather roulette methodology (Hagedorn & Smith, 2009). This methodology is a diagnostic tool created to inform in a more intuitive and relevant way about the skill and usefulness of a forecast in the decision making process, by providing an economic and financial oriented assessment of the benefits of using a particular forecast system. We have selected a region relevant to the energy stakeholders where the predictions of the EUPORIAS climate service prototype for the energy sector (RESILIENCE) are skillful. In this region, we have applied the weather roulette to compare the overall prediction success of RESILIENCE's predictions and climatology illustrating it as an effective interest rate, an economic term that is easier to understand for energy stakeholders.

  5. Linking Complex Problem Solving and General Mental Ability to Career Advancement: Does a Transversal Skill Reveal Incremental Predictive Validity?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mainert, Jakob; Kretzschmar, André; Neubert, Jonas C.; Greiff, Samuel

    2015-01-01

    Transversal skills, such as complex problem solving (CPS) are viewed as central twenty-first-century skills. Recent empirical findings have already supported the importance of CPS for early academic advancement. We wanted to determine whether CPS could also contribute to the understanding of career advancement later in life. Towards this end, we…

  6. NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena

    2010-01-01

    AIRS (Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder), was launched, in conjunction with AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) on the NASA polar orbiting research satellite EOS (Earth Observing System) Aqua satellite in May 2002 as a next generation atmospheric sounding system. Atmospheric sounders provide information primarily about the vertical distribution of atmospheric temperature and water vapor distribution. This is achieved by measuring outgoing radiation in discrete channels (spectral intervals) which are sensitive primarily to variations of these geophysical parameters. The primary objectives of AIRS/AMSU were to utilize such information in order to improve the skill of numerical weather prediction as well as to measure climate variability and trends. AIRS is a multi-detector array grating spectrometer with 2378 channels covering the spectral range 650/cm (15 microns) to 2660/cm (3.6 microns) with a resolving power (i/a i) of roughly 1200 where a i is the spectral channel bandpass. Atmospheric temperature profile can be determined from channel observations taken within the 15 micron (the long-wave CO2 absorption band) and within the 4.2 micron (the short-wave CO2 absorption band). Radiances in these (and all other) spectral intervals in the infrared are also sensitive to the presence of clouds in the instrument?s field of view (FOV), which are present about 95% of the time. AIRS was designed so as to allow for the ability to produce accurate Quality Controlled atmospheric soundings under most cloud conditions. This was achieved by having 1) extremely low channel noise values in the shortwave portion of the spectrum and 2) a very flat spatial response function within a channel?s FOV. IASI, the high spectral resolution IR interferometer flying on the European METOP satellite, does not contain either of these important characteristics. The AIRS instrument was also designed to be extremely stabile with regard to its spectral radiometric characteristics, which is

  7. Recent advances in analysis and prediction of Rock Falls, Rock Slides, and Rock Avalanches using 3D point clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abellan, A.; Carrea, D.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Riquelme, A.; Tomas, R.; Royan, M. J.; Vilaplana, J. M.; Gauvin, N.

    2014-12-01

    The acquisition of dense terrain information using well-established 3D techniques (e.g. LiDAR, photogrammetry) and the use of new mobile platforms (e.g. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) together with the increasingly efficient post-processing workflows for image treatment (e.g. Structure From Motion) are opening up new possibilities for analysing, modeling and predicting rock slope failures. Examples of applications at different scales ranging from the monitoring of small changes at unprecedented level of detail (e.g. sub millimeter-scale deformation under lab-scale conditions) to the detection of slope deformation at regional scale. In this communication we will show the main accomplishments of the Swiss National Foundation project "Characterizing and analysing 3D temporal slope evolution" carried out at Risk Analysis group (Univ. of Lausanne) in close collaboration with the RISKNAT and INTERES groups (Univ. of Barcelona and Univ. of Alicante, respectively). We have recently developed a series of innovative approaches for rock slope analysis using 3D point clouds, some examples include: the development of semi-automatic methodologies for the identification and extraction of rock-slope features such as discontinuities, type of material, rockfalls occurrence and deformation. Moreover, we have been improving our knowledge in progressive rupture characterization thanks to several algorithms, some examples include the computing of 3D deformation, the use of filtering techniques on permanently based TLS, the use of rock slope failure analogies at different scales (laboratory simulations, monitoring at glacier's front, etc.), the modelling of the influence of external forces such as precipitation on the acceleration of the deformation rate, etc. We have also been interested on the analysis of rock slope deformation prior to the occurrence of fragmental rockfalls and the interaction of this deformation with the spatial location of future events. In spite of these recent advances

  8. Low podoplanin expression in pretreatment biopsy material predicts poor prognosis in advanced-stage squamous cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix treated by primary radiation.

    PubMed

    Dumoff, Kimberly L; Chu, Christina S; Harris, Eleanor E; Holtz, David; Xu, Xiaowei; Zhang, Paul J; Acs, Geza

    2006-05-01

    Lymphatic invasion and nodal metastasis are predictors of poor outcome in cervix carcinoma. We have recently found that low podoplanin immunoreactivity in cervix carcinoma correlated with the presence of lymphatic invasion and nodal metastasis. In the current study, we examined whether podoplanin expression in pretreatment cervical biopsies can predict the presence lymphatic invasion, nodal metastasis, and outcome in advanced-stage tumors treated by nonsurgical means. Podoplanin expression was analyzed by immunohistochemistry in 48 cervical biopsies and corresponding hysterectomy specimens of early-stage invasive squamous cell carcinoma and in 74 pretreatment biopsies from advanced-stage tumors treated with primary radiation. We found a highly significant correlation between podoplanin expression obtained in biopsy and corresponding hysterectomy materials (r = 0.8962, P < 0.0001). Low podoplanin expression showed a significant correlation with lymphatic invasion (P < 0.0001) and nodal metastasis (P = 0.0058). Low podoplanin expression in pretreatment biopsy material showed a significant correlation with poor disease-free (P = 0.0009) and overall (P = 0.0002) survival in advanced-stage tumors. Our results suggest that in advanced-stage cervix carcinomas treated by radiation, when traditional prognostic indicators are not available and treatment decisions are based on biopsy material and clinical staging parameters, examination of podoplanin expression in pretreatment biopsy material may be a useful marker to predict lymphatic metastasis and patient outcome. Prospective studies involving larger numbers of patients are needed to further evaluate the clinical utility of examination of podoplanin expression in patients with cervix carcinoma.

  9. Integrative sensing and prediction of urban water for sustainable cities (iSPUW)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, D. J.; Fang, N. Z.; Yu, X.; Zink, M.; Gao, J.; Kerkez, B.

    2014-12-01

    We describe a newly launched project in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) area to develop a cyber-physical prototype system that integrates advanced sensing, modeling and prediction of urban water, to support its early adoption by a spectrum of users and stakeholders, and to educate a new generation of future sustainability scientists and engineers. The project utilizes the very high-resolution precipitation and other sensing capabilities uniquely available in DFW as well as crowdsourcing and cloud computing to advance understanding of the urban water cycle and to improve urban sustainability from transient shocks of heavy-to-extreme precipitation under climate change and urbanization. All available water information from observations and models will be fused objectively via advanced data assimilation to produce the best estimate of the state of the uncertain system. Modeling, prediction and decision support tools will be developed in the ensemble framework to increase the information content of the analysis and prediction and to support risk-based decision making.

  10. Prediction of plasma-induced damage distribution during silicon nitride etching using advanced three-dimensional voxel model

    SciTech Connect

    Kuboi, Nobuyuki Tatsumi, Tetsuya; Kinoshita, Takashi; Shigetoshi, Takushi; Fukasawa, Masanaga; Komachi, Jun; Ansai, Hisahiro

    2015-11-15

    The authors modeled SiN film etching with hydrofluorocarbon (CH{sub x}F{sub y}/Ar/O{sub 2}) plasma considering physical (ion bombardment) and chemical reactions in detail, including the reactivity of radicals (C, F, O, N, and H), the area ratio of Si dangling bonds, the outflux of N and H, the dependence of the H/N ratio on the polymer layer, and generation of by-products (HCN, C{sub 2}N{sub 2}, NH, HF, OH, and CH, in addition to CO, CF{sub 2}, SiF{sub 2}, and SiF{sub 4}) as ion assistance process parameters for the first time. The model was consistent with the measured C-F polymer layer thickness, etch rate, and selectivity dependence on process variation for SiN, SiO{sub 2}, and Si film etching. To analyze the three-dimensional (3D) damage distribution affected by the etched profile, the authors developed an advanced 3D voxel model that can predict the time-evolution of the etched profile and damage distribution. The model includes some new concepts for gas transportation in the pattern using a fluid model and the property of voxels called “smart voxels,” which contain details of the history of the etching situation. Using this 3D model, the authors demonstrated metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor SiN side-wall etching that consisted of the main-etch step with CF{sub 4}/Ar/O{sub 2} plasma and an over-etch step with CH{sub 3}F/Ar/O{sub 2} plasma under the assumption of a realistic process and pattern size. A large amount of Si damage induced by irradiated hydrogen occurred in the source/drain region, a Si recess depth of 5 nm was generated, and the dislocated Si was distributed in a 10 nm deeper region than the Si recess, which was consistent with experimental data for a capacitively coupled plasma. An especially large amount of Si damage was also found at the bottom edge region of the metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistors. Furthermore, our simulation results for bulk fin-type field-effect transistor side-wall etching

  11. The discriminatory capability of existing scores to predict advanced colorectal neoplasia: a prospective colonoscopy study of 5,899 screening participants

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Martin C. S.; Ching, Jessica Y. L.; Ng, Simpson; Lam, Thomas Y. T.; Luk, Arthur K. C.; Wong, Sunny H.; Ng, Siew C.; Ng, Simon S. M.; Wu, Justin C. Y.; Chan, Francis K. L.; Sung, Joseph J. Y.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of seven existing risk scoring systems in predicting advanced colorectal neoplasia in an asymptomatic Chinese cohort. We prospectively recruited 5,899 Chinese subjects aged 50–70 years in a colonoscopy screening programme(2008–2014). Scoring systems under evaluation included two scoring tools from the US; one each from Spain, Germany, and Poland; the Korean Colorectal Screening(KCS) scores; and the modified Asia Pacific Colorectal Screening(APCS) scores. The c-statistics, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values(PPVs), and negative predictive values(NPVs) of these systems were evaluated. The resources required were estimated based on the Number Needed to Screen(NNS) and the Number Needed to Refer for colonoscopy(NNR). Advanced neoplasia was detected in 364 (6.2%) subjects. The German system referred the least proportion of subjects (11.2%) for colonoscopy, whilst the KCS scoring system referred the highest (27.4%). The c-statistics of all systems ranged from 0.56–0.65, with sensitivities ranging from 0.04–0.44 and specificities from 0.74–0.99. The modified APCS scoring system had the highest c-statistics (0.65, 95% C.I. 0.58–0.72). The NNS (12–19) and NNR (5-10) were similar among the scoring systems. The existing scoring systems have variable capability to predict advanced neoplasia among asymptomatic Chinese subjects, and further external validation should be performed. PMID:26838178

  12. Improved NASA-ANOPP Noise Prediction Computer Code for Advanced Subsonic Propulsion Systems. Volume 2; Fan Suppression Model Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kontos, Karen B.; Kraft, Robert E.; Gliebe, Philip R.

    1996-01-01

    The Aircraft Noise Predication Program (ANOPP) is an industry-wide tool used to predict turbofan engine flyover noise in system noise optimization studies. Its goal is to provide the best currently available methods for source noise prediction. As part of a program to improve the Heidmann fan noise model, models for fan inlet and fan exhaust noise suppression estimation that are based on simple engine and acoustic geometry inputs have been developed. The models can be used to predict sound power level suppression and sound pressure level suppression at a position specified relative to the engine inlet.

  13. An Advanced Analytical Chemistry Experiment Using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry, MATLAB, and Chemometrics to Predict Biodiesel Blend Percent Composition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pierce, Karisa M.; Schale, Stephen P.; Le, Trang M.; Larson, Joel C.

    2011-01-01

    We present a laboratory experiment for an advanced analytical chemistry course where we first focus on the chemometric technique partial least-squares (PLS) analysis applied to one-dimensional (1D) total-ion-current gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-TIC) separations of biodiesel blends. Then, we focus on n-way PLS (n-PLS) applied to…

  14. Advanced prediction technique for the low speed aerodynamics of V/STOL aircraft. Volume 1: Technical discussion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beatty, T. D.; Worthey, M. K.

    1984-01-01

    The V/STOL Aircraft Propulsive Effects (VAPE) computerized prediction method is evaluated. The program analyzes viscous effects, various jet, inlet, and Short TakeOff and Landing (STOL) models, and examines the aerodynamic configurations of V/STOL aircraft.

  15. New utility of an old marker: serum low-density lipoprotein predicts histopathological response of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in locally advanced gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Ji-Chun; Guo, Ju-Feng; Teng, Rong-Yue; Wang, Qin-Chuan; Wang, Ji; Wei, Qun; Li, Zi-Duo; Shen, Jian-Guo; Wang, Lin-Bo

    2016-01-01

    Background Although the correlation between metabolic abnormality and gastric cancer has been extensively investigated, the question of whether metabolic parameters might influence the efficacy of chemotherapy in locally advanced gastric cancer is still unanswered. In our present study, we investigated the relationship between serum fasting glucose, lipid levels, and histopathological response of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in locally advanced gastric cancers. Patients and methods A total of 128 patients were identified from a prospectively maintained database of patients with locally advanced gastric cancer who received NAC between July 2004 and December 2012. Histopathological response after NAC was analyzed according to Becker’s tumor-regression grade. Univariate analyses and multivariable regression analyses were performed to determine the correlation between tumor size, differentiation, fasting glucose, lipid levels, and tumor histopathological response after NAC. Results Univariate analysis revealed that low-density lipoprotein level and total cholesterol, as well as tumor size and differentiation, correlated significantly with histopathological response. Low-density lipoprotein levels and tumor size were found to be independent predictors for histopathological response, according to multivariable regression analyses. Conclusion In this observational, hypothesis-generating study, serum low-density lipoprotein measurement was found to be useful in predicting chemosensitivity to locally advanced gastric cancer patients undergoing NAC. Incorporation of serum low-density lipoprotein levels into individualized treatment protocols could be considered in clinical practice. PMID:27574445

  16. A Combined Pharmacokinetic and Radiologic Assessment of Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Predicts Response to Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Semple, Scott Harry, Vanessa N. MRCOG.; Parkin, David E.; Gilbert, Fiona J.

    2009-10-01

    Purpose: To investigate the combination of pharmacokinetic and radiologic assessment of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as an early response indicator in women receiving chemoradiation for advanced cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: Twenty women with locally advanced cervical cancer were included in a prospective cohort study. Dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI was carried out before chemoradiation, after 2 weeks of therapy, and at the conclusion of therapy using a 1.5-T MRI scanner. Radiologic assessment of uptake parameters was obtained from resultant intensity curves. Pharmacokinetic analysis using a multicompartment model was also performed. General linear modeling was used to combine radiologic and pharmacokinetic parameters and correlated with eventual response as determined by change in MRI tumor size and conventional clinical response. A subgroup of 11 women underwent repeat pretherapy MRI to test pharmacokinetic reproducibility. Results: Pretherapy radiologic parameters and pharmacokinetic K{sup trans} correlated with response (p < 0.01). General linear modeling demonstrated that a combination of radiologic and pharmacokinetic assessments before therapy was able to predict more than 88% of variance of response. Reproducibility of pharmacokinetic modeling was confirmed. Conclusions: A combination of radiologic assessment with pharmacokinetic modeling applied to dynamic MRI before the start of chemoradiation improves the predictive power of either by more than 20%. The potential improvements in therapy response prediction using this type of combined analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI may aid in the development of more individualized, effective therapy regimens for this patient group.

  17. Development of a numerical scheme to predict geomagnetic storms after intense solar events and geomagnetic activity 27 days in advance. Final report, 6 Aug 86-16 Nov 90

    SciTech Connect

    Akasofu, S.I.; Lee, L.H.

    1991-02-01

    The modern geomagnetic storm prediction scheme should be based on a numerical simulation method, rather than on a statistical result. Furthermore, the scheme should be able to predict the geomagnetic storm indices, such as the Dst and AE indices, as a function of time. By recognizing that geomagnetic storms are powered by the solar wind-magnetosphere generator and that its power is given in terms of the solar wind speed, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and polar angle, the authors have made a major advance in predicting both flare-induced storms and recurrent storms. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the prediction scheme can be calibrated using the interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observation, when the solar disturbance advances about half-way to the earth. It is shown, however, that we are still far from a reliable prediction scheme. The prediction of the IMF polar angle requires future advance in understanding characteristics of magnetic clouds.

  18. Demonstrating Advancements in 3D Analysis and Prediction Tools for Space Weather Forecasting utilizing the Enlil Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, J. J.; Elkington, S. R.; Schmitt, P.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Baker, D. N.

    2012-12-01

    Simulation models of the heliospheric and geospace environments can provide key insights into the geoeffective potential of solar disturbances such as Coronal Mass Ejections and High Speed Solar Wind Streams. Analysis and prediction tools for post processing and visualizing simulation results greatly enhance the utility of these models in aiding space weather forecasters to predict the terrestrial consequences of these events. The Center For Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) Knowledge Transfer (KT) group is making significant progress on an integrated post-processing and analysis and prediction tool based on the ParaView open source visualization application for space weather prediction. These tools will provide space weather forecasters with the ability to use 3D situational awareness of the solar wind, CME, and eventually the geospace environments. Current work focuses on bringing new 3D analysis and prediction tools for the Enlil heliospheric model to space weather forecasters. In this effort we present a ParaView-based model interface that will provide forecasters with an interactive system for analyzing complete 3D datasets from modern space weather models.

  19. Predicting the Inflow Distortion Tone Noise of the NASA Glenn Advanced Noise Control Fan with a Combined Quadrupole-Dipole Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koch, L. Danielle

    2012-01-01

    A combined quadrupole-dipole model of fan inflow distortion tone noise has been extended to calculate tone sound power levels generated by obstructions arranged in circumferentially asymmetric locations upstream of a rotor. Trends in calculated sound power level agreed well with measurements from tests conducted in 2007 in the NASA Glenn Advanced Noise Control Fan. Calculated values of sound power levels radiated upstream were demonstrated to be sensitive to the accuracy of the modeled wakes from the cylindrical rods that were placed upstream of the fan to distort the inflow. Results indicate a continued need to obtain accurate aerodynamic predictions and measurements at the fan inlet plane as engineers work towards developing fan inflow distortion tone noise prediction tools.

  20. Feeling the Pulse of the Stratosphere: An Emerging Opportunity for Predicting Continental-Scale Cold Air Outbreaks One Month in Advance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Ming

    2016-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as cold air outbreaks (CAOs) pose great threats to human life and socioeconomic well-being of the modern society. In the past, our capability to predict their occurrences is constrained by the 2-week predictability limit for weather. We demonstrate here for the first time that a rapid increase of air mass transported into the polar stratosphere, referred to as "the pulse of the stratosphere (PULSE)", can often be predicted with a useful skill 4-6 weeks in advance by operational forecast models. We further show that the probability of the occurrence of continental-scale CAOs in mid-latitudes increases substantially above the normal condition within a short time period from one week before to 1‑2 weeks after the peak day of a PULSE event. In particular, we reveal that the three massive CAOs over North America in January and February of 2014 were preceded by three episodes of extreme mass transport into the polar stratosphere with peak intensities reaching a trillion tons per day, twice of that on an average winter day. Therefore, our capability to predict the PULSEs with operational forecast models, in conjunction with its linkage to continental-scale CAOs, opens up a new opportunity for 30‑day forecasts of continental-scale CAOs, such as those occurring over North America in the 2013-14 winter. A real time forecast experiment inaugurated in the winter of 2014-15 has given support to the idea that it is feasible to forecast CAOs one month in advance.

  1. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 1: Theoretical development and application to yearly predictions for selected cities in the United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1986-01-01

    A rain attenuation prediction model is described for use in calculating satellite communication link availability for any specific location in the world that is characterized by an extended record of rainfall. Such a formalism is necessary for the accurate assessment of such availability predictions in the case of the small user-terminal concept of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The model employs the theory of extreme value statistics to generate the necessary statistical rainrate parameters from rain data in the form compiled by the National Weather Service. These location dependent rain statistics are then applied to a rain attenuation model to obtain a yearly prediction of the occurrence of attenuation on any satellite link at that location. The predictions of this model are compared to those of the Crane Two-Component Rain Model and some empirical data and found to be very good. The model is then used to calculate rain attenuation statistics at 59 locations in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) for the 20 GHz downlinks and 30 GHz uplinks of the proposed ACTS system. The flexibility of this modeling formalism is such that it allows a complete and unified treatment of the temporal aspects of rain attenuation that leads to the design of an optimum stochastic power control algorithm, the purpose of which is to efficiently counter such rain fades on a satellite link.

  2. Nestin predicts a favorable prognosis in early ampullary adenocarcinoma and functions as a promoter of metastasis in advanced cancer.

    PubMed

    Shan, Yan-Shen; Chen, Yi-Ling; Lai, Ming-Derg; Hsu, Hui-Ping

    2015-01-01

    Nestin exhibits stemness characteristics and is overexpressed in several types of cancers. Downstream signaling of nestin [cyclin-dependent kinase 5 (CDK5) and Ras-related C3 botulinum toxin substrate 1 (Rac1)] functions in cancer to modulate cellular behaviors. We studied the function of nestin in ampullary adenocarcinoma. Immunohistochemistry (IHC), reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, and cDNA microarray of nestin in ampullary adenocarcinoma was compared with normal duodenum. CDK5 and Rac1 were assessed by western blotting. We hypothesized that nestin/CDK5/Rac1 signaling behaves different in early and advanced cancer. We found that the presence of nestin mRNA was increased in the early stages of cancer (T2N0 or T3N0) and advanced cancer with lymph node metastasis (T4N1). A total of 102 patients were enrolled in the IHC staining. Weak nestin expression was correlated with favorable characteristics of cancer, decreased incidence of local recurrence and lower risk of recurrence within 12 months after surgery. Patients with weak nestin expression had the most favorable recurrence‑free survival rates. Patients with mild to strong nestin expression exhibited an advanced behavior of cancer and increased possibility of cancer recurrence. The reciprocal expression of nestin and RAC1 were explored using a cDNA microarray analysis in the early stages of ampullary adenocarcinoma. Increased level of CDK5 with simultaneously decreased expression of Rac1 was detected by western blotting of ampullary adenocarcinoma in patients without cancer recurrence. The activation of multiple oncogenic pathways, combined with the stemness characteristics of nestin, formed a complex network in advanced ampullary adenocarcinoma. Our study demonstrated that nestin performs a dual role in ampullary adenocarcinoma. Appropriate amount of nestin enhances CDK5 function to suppress Rac1 and excessive nestin/CDK5 participates in multiple oncogenic pathways to promote cancer invasiveness

  3. Commercial-Scale Performance Predictions for High-Temperature Electrolysis Plants Coupled to Three Advanced Reactor Types

    SciTech Connect

    M. G. McKellar; J. E. O'Brien; J. S. Herring

    2007-09-01

    This report presents results of system analyses that have been developed to assess the hydrogen production performance of commercial-scale high-temperature electrolysis (HTE) plants driven by three different advanced reactor – power-cycle combinations: a high-temperature helium cooled reactor coupled to a direct Brayton power cycle, a supercritical CO2-cooled reactor coupled to a direct recompression cycle, and a sodium-cooled fast reactor coupled to a Rankine cycle. The system analyses were performed using UniSim software. The work described in this report represents a refinement of previous analyses in that the process flow diagrams include realistic representations of the three advanced reactors directly coupled to the power cycles and integrated with the high-temperature electrolysis process loops. In addition, this report includes parametric studies in which the performance of each HTE concept is determined over a wide range of operating conditions. Results of the study indicate that overall thermal-to- hydrogen production efficiencies (based on the low heating value of the produced hydrogen) in the 45 - 50% range can be achieved at reasonable production rates with the high-temperature helium cooled reactor concept, 42 - 44% with the supercritical CO2-cooled reactor and about 33 - 34% with the sodium-cooled reactor.

  4. Recent advances, and unresolved issues, in the application of computational modelling to the prediction of the biological effects of nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Winkler, David A

    2016-05-15

    Nanomaterials research is one of the fastest growing contemporary research areas. The unprecedented properties of these materials have meant that they are being incorporated into products very quickly. Regulatory agencies are concerned they cannot assess the potential hazards of these materials adequately, as data on the biological properties of nanomaterials are still relatively limited and expensive to acquire. Computational modelling methods have much to offer in helping understand the mechanisms by which toxicity may occur, and in predicting the likelihood of adverse biological impacts of materials not yet tested experimentally. This paper reviews the progress these methods, particularly those QSAR-based, have made in understanding and predicting potentially adverse biological effects of nanomaterials, and also the limitations and pitfalls of these methods.

  5. Numerical Modeling for Springback Predictions by Considering the Variations of Elastic Modulus in Stamping Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Hyunok; Kimchi, Menachem

    2011-08-01

    This paper presents a numerical modeling approach for predicting springback by considering the variations of elastic modulus on springback in stamping AHSS. Various stamping tests and finite-element method (FEM) simulation codes were used in this study. The cyclic loading-unloading tensile tests were conducted to determine the variations of elastic modulus for dual-phase (DP) 780 sheet steel. The biaxial bulge test was used to obtain plastic flow stress data. The non-linear reduction of elastic modulus for increasing the plastic strain was formulated by using the Yoshida model that was implemented in FEM simulations for springback. To understand the effects of material properties on springback, experiments were conducted with a simple geometry such as U-shape bending and the more complex geometry such as the curved flanging and S-rail stamping. Different measurement methods were used to confirm the final part geometry. Two different commercial FEM codes, LS-DYNA and DEFORM, were used to compare the experiments. The variable elastic modulus improved springback predictions in U-shape bending and curved flanging tests compared to FEM with the constant elastic modulus. However, in S-rail stamping tests, both FEM models with the isotropic hardening model showed limitations in predicting the sidewall curl of the S-rail part after springback. To consider the kinematic hardening and Bauschinger effects that result from material bending-unbending in S-rail stamping, the Yoshida model was used for FEM simulation of S-rail stamping and springback. The FEM predictions showed good improvement in correlating with experiments.

  6. Predictive lymphatic mapping: a method for mapping lymphatic channels in patients with advanced unilateral lymphedema using indocyanine green lymphography.

    PubMed

    Mihara, Makoto; Seki, Yukio; Hara, Hisako; Iida, Takuya; Oka, Aiko; Kikuchi, Kazuki; Narushima, Mitsunaga; Haragi, Makiko; Furniss, Dominic; Hin-Lun, Lawrence; Mitsui, Kito; Murai, Noriyuki; Koshima, Isao

    2014-01-01

    In severe lymphedema, indocyanine green lymphography cannot be used to map lymphatic channels before lymphaticovenular anastomosis (LVA) because linear lymphatics cannot be detected in a severely affected leg. Here, we describe a new method, which we refer to as predictive lymphatic mapping, to predict the location of lymphatics for anastomosis in unilateral lymphedema, thereby improving surgical accuracy and efficiency. The approach consists of marking anatomical landmarks and joining selected landmarks with fixed lines. The distance from these fixed lines to lymphatic channels mapped by indocyanine green lymphography in the unaffected leg is then measured, scaled up based on the difference in circumference between the legs, and transposed to the affected leg. To date, we have used this method in 5 cases of unilateral or asymmetric lymphedema of the lower extremities. In no cases have we failed to find a lymphatic channel suitable for LVA within a 2-cm incision. These results suggest that predictive lymphatic mapping is a useful additional tool for surgeons performing LVA under local anesthesia, which will help to improve the accuracy of incisions and the efficiency of surgery.

  7. Prediction of geomagnetic reversals using low-dimensional dynamical models and advanced data assimilation: a feasibility study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fournier, A.; Morzfeld, M.; Hulot, G.

    2013-12-01

    For a suitable choice of parameters, the system of three ordinary differential equations (ODE) presented by Gissinger [1] was shown to exhibit chaotic reversals whose statistics compared well with those from the paleomagnetic record. In order to further assess the geophysical relevance of this low-dimensional model, we resort to data assimilation methods to calibrate it using reconstructions of the fluctuation of the virtual axial dipole moment spanning the past 2 millions years. Moreover, we test to which extent a properly calibrated model could possibly be used to predict a reversal of the geomagnetic field. We calibrate the ODE model to the geomagnetic field over the past 2 Ma using the SINT data set of Valet et al. [2]. To this end, we consider four data assimilation algorithms: the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a variational method and two Monte Carlo (MC) schemes, prior importance sampling and implicit sampling. We observe that EnKF performs poorly and that prior importance sampling is inefficient. We obtain the most accurate reconstructions of the geomagnetic data using implicit sampling with five data points per assimilation sweep (of duration 5 kyr). The variational scheme performs equally well, but it does not provide us with quantitative information about the uncertainty of the estimates, which makes this method difficult to use for robust prediction under uncertainty. A calibration of the model using the PADM2M data set of Ziegler et al. [3] confirms these findings. We study the predictive capability of the ODE model using statistics computed from synthetic data experiments. For each experiment, we produce 2 Myr of synthetic data (with error levels similar to the ones found in real data), then calibrate the model to this record and then check if this calibrated model can correctly and reliably predict a reversal within the next 10 kyr (say). By performing 100 such experiments, we can assess how reliably our calibrated model can predict a (non

  8. Optimal tumor shrinkage predicts long-term outcome in advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with target therapy

    PubMed Central

    He, Xiaobo; Zhang, Yang; Ma, Yuxiang; Zhou, Ting; Zhang, Jianwei; Hong, Shaodong; Sheng, Jin; Zhang, Zhonghan; Yang, Yunpeng; Huang, Yan; Zhang, Li; Zhao, Hongyun

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are used as standard therapies for advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with EGFR mutation positive. Because these targeted therapies could cause tumor necrosis and shrinkage, the purpose of the study is to search for a value of optimal tumor shrinkage as an appropriate indicator of outcome for advanced NSCLC. A total of 88 NSCLC enrollees of 3 clinical trials (IRESSA registration clinical trial, TRUST study and ZD6474 study), who received Gefitinib (250 mg, QD), Erlotinib (150 mg, QD), and ZD6474 (100 mg, QD), respectively, during December 2003 and October 2007, were retrospectively analyzed. The response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST) were used to identify responders, who had complete response (CR) or partial responses (PR) and nonresponders who had stable disease (SD) or progressive disease (PD). Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was used to find the optimal tumor shrinkage as an indicator for tumor therapeutic outcome. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to compare the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) between responders and nonresponders stratified based on radiologic criteria. Among the 88 NSCLC patients, 26 were responders and 62 were nonresponders based on RECIST 1.0. ROC indicated that 8.32% tumor diameter shrinkage in the sum of the longest tumor diameter (SLD) was the cutoff point of tumor shrinkage outcomes, resulting in 46 responders (≤8.32%) and 42 nonresponders (≥8.32%). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that (1) the responders (≤8.32%) and nonresponders (≥ −8.32%) were significantly different in median PFS (13.40 vs 1.17 months, P < 0.001) and OS (19.80 vs 7.90 months, P < 0.001) and (2) –8.32% in SLD could be used as the optimal threshold for PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 8.11, 95% CI, 3.75 to 17.51, P < 0.001) and OS

  9. Slow Crack Growth Analysis of Advanced Structural Ceramics Under Combined Loading Conditions: Damage Assessment in Life Prediction Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2000-01-01

    Slow crack growth analysis was performed with three different loading histories including constant stress-rate/constant stress-rate testing (Case I loading), constant stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case II loading), and cyclic stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case III loading). Strength degradation due to slow crack growth arid/or damage accumulation was determined numerically as a Function of percentage of interruption time between the two loading sequences for a given loading history. The numerical solutions were examined with the experimental data determined at elevated temperatures using four different advanced ceramic materials, two silicon nitrides, one silicon carbide and one alumina for the Case I loading history, and alumina for the Case II loading history. The numerical solutions were in reasonable agreement with the experimental data, indicating that notwithstanding some degree of creep deformation presented for some test materials slow crack growth was a governing mechanism associated with failure for all the test material&

  10. Slow Crack Growth Analysis of Advanced Structural Ceramics Under Combined Loading Conditions: Damage Assessment in Life Prediction Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, S. R.; Gyekenyesi, J. P.

    2001-01-01

    Slow crack growth analysis was performed with three different loading histories including constant stress- rate/constant stress-rate testing (Case I loading), constant stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case II loading), and cyclic stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case III loading). Strength degradation due to slow crack growth and/or damage accumulation was determined numerically as a function of percentage of interruption time between the two loading sequences for a given loading history. The numerical solutions were examined with the experimental data determined at elevated temperatures using four different advanced ceramic materials, two silicon nitrides, one silicon carbide and one alumina for the Case I loading history, and alumina for the Case II loading history. The numerical solutions were in reasonable agreement with the experimental data, indicating that notwithstanding some degree of creep deformation presented for some test materials slow crack growth was a governing mechanism associated with failure for all the rest materials.

  11. Slow Crack Growth Analysis of Advanced Structural Ceramics Under Combined Loading Conditions: Damage Assessment in Life Prediction Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2000-01-01

    Slow crack growth analysis was performed with three different loading histories including constant stress-rate/constant stress-rate testing (Case 1 loading), constant stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case 2 loading), and cyclic stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case 2 loading). Strength degradation due to slow crack growth and/or damage accumulation was determined numerically as a function of percentage of interruption time between the two loading sequences for a given loading history. The numerical solutions were examined with the experimental data determined at elevated temperatures using four different advanced ceramic materials, two silicon nitrides, one silicon carbide and one alumina for the Case 1 loading history, and alumina for the Case 3 loading history. The numerical solutions were in reasonable agreement with the experimental data, indicating that notwithstanding some degree of creep deformation presented for some test materials slow crack growth was a governing mechanism associated with failure for all the test materials.

  12. Elevated Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Intermediate-Term Outcomes in Patients Who Have Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease with Peripheral Artery Disease Receiving Percutaneous Transluminal Angioplasty

    PubMed Central

    Chen, I-Chih; Yu, Chao-Chin; Wu, Yi-Hsuan; Chao, Ting-Hsing

    2016-01-01

    Background Inflammation plays an important role in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), an inflammatory biomarker, has not been evaluated in patients who have advanced CKD with peripheral artery disease (PAD) undergoing percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA), especially in Taiwan. Methods We retrospectively evaluated 148 advanced CKD (creatinine clearance rate ≤ 30 mL/min/1.73 m2) identified from a prospective registry in our hospital (303 PTA cases in total). Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank test was used to study event-free survival, and all univariables (p value < 0.1) were put into multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results During the mean follow-up time of 8.6 ± 7.8 months, 35.1% of the cases achieved primary composite endpoint (all-cause mortality or major amputation), 25.5% underwent death from any cause, and 14.9% underwent major or minor amputation. Rutherford grade 6, either NLR or NLR ≥ 3.76, and a history of hypertension had a positively prognostic impact on the occurrence of primary composite endpoint, whereas higher albumin level (≥ 3.0 mg/dL) and technical success had a significantly protective effect. History of hypertension, either NLR or NLR ≥ 3.76, and age were associated with all-cause mortality. In addition, Rutherford 6, higher albumin level (≥ 3.0 mg/dL), technical success, NLR, and age could predict the occurrence of major amputation. Conclusions NLR, but not C-reactive protein or platelet-lymphocyte ratio, is an important prognostic predictor of all major clinical outcomes in patients with advanced CKD and PAD receiving PTA. Further studies are warranted to establish a better strategy and healthcare program in this clinical setting. PMID:27713601

  13. One-Way Coupling of an Advanced CFD Multi-Physics Model to FEA for Predicting Stress-Strain in the Solidifying Shell during Continuous Casting of Steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svensson, Johan; Ramírez López, Pavel E.; Jalali, Pooria N.; Cervantes, Michel

    2015-06-01

    One of the main targets for Continuous Casting (CC) modelling is the actual prediction of defects during transient events. However, the majority of CC models are based on a statistical approach towards flow and powder performance, which is unable to capture the subtleties of small variations in casting conditions during real industrial operation or the combined effects of such changes leading eventually to defects. An advanced Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model; which accounts for transient changes on lubrication during casting due to turbulent flow dynamics and mould oscillation has been presented on MCWASP XIV (Austria) to address these issues. The model has been successfully applied to the industrial environment to tackle typical problems such as lack of lubrication or unstable flows. However, a direct application to cracking had proven elusive. The present paper describes how results from this advanced CFD-CC model have been successfully coupled to structural Finite Element Analysis (FEA) for prediction of stress-strains as a function of irregular lubrication conditions in the mould. The main challenge for coupling was the extraction of the solidified shell from CFD calculations (carried out with a hybrid structured mesh) and creating a geometry by using iso-surfaces, re-meshing and mapping loads (e.g. temperature, pressure and external body forces), which served as input to mechanical stress-strain calculations. Preliminary results for CC of slabs show that the temperature distribution within the shell causes shrinkage and thermal deformation; which are in turn, the main source of stress. Results also show reasonable stress levels of 10-20 MPa in regions, where the shell is thin and exposed to large temperature gradients. Finally, predictions are in good agreement with prior works where stresses indicate compression at the slab surface, while tension is observed at the interior; generating a characteristic stress-strain state during solidification in CC.

  14. Rapid and early α-fetoprotein and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin responses to initial arterial infusion chemotherapy predict treatment outcomes of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    OYAMA, KENJI; KODA, MASAHIKO; SUGIHARA, TAKAAKI; KISHINA, MANABU; MIYOSHI, KENICHI; OKAMOTO, TOSHIAKI; HODOTSUKA, MASANORI; FUJISE, YUKI; MATONO, TOMOMITSU; TOKUNAGA, SHIHO; OKAMOTO, KINYA; HOSHO, KEIKO; OKANO, JUNICHI; MURAWAKI, YOSHIKAZU

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to predict the effects of transarterial infusion (TAI) chemotherapy based on early changes in α-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Seventy-four patients who underwent TAI with cisplatin, 5-fluorouracil, mitomycin C and epirubicin for advanced HCC were enrolled. Antitumor responses were evaluated 6 months after TAI. Rapid and early responses were defined as the ratio of AFP or DCP after 1 week and 1 month compared to baseline. A total of 5, 10, 17 and 42 patients had complete response (CR), partial response (PR), stable disease (SD) or progressive disease (PD), respectively. Early AFP response was significantly lower in the CR+PR compared to the SD+PD groups (P<0.01). The early DCP response was significantly lower in the CR+PR compared to the SD+PD. The sensitivity and specificity of rapid and early AFP responses in the CR+PR were 0.78 and 0.72, and 0.80 and 0.73, respectively, and those of rapid and early DCP responses were 0.67 and 0.65, and 0.77 and 0.71, respectively. The combination of AFP and DCP responses had higher specificity compared to AFP or DCP alone responses. Patients were divided into responder and non-responder groups to evaluate the prediction of survival outcome. Early responders of AFP, DCP and AFP+DCP, who were divided based on the cut-off values of CR+PR survived significantly longer than the non-responders (P<0.05). In conclusion, rapid or early responses of AFP and/or DCP levels 1 and 4 weeks after TAI chemotherapy helped to predict the treatment effects. PMID:26137283

  15. The eTOX data-sharing project to advance in silico drug-induced toxicity prediction.

    PubMed

    Cases, Montserrat; Briggs, Katharine; Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Pognan, François; Marc, Philippe; Kleinöder, Thomas; Schwab, Christof H; Pastor, Manuel; Wichard, Jörg; Sanz, Ferran

    2014-01-01

    The high-quality in vivo preclinical safety data produced by the pharmaceutical industry during drug development, which follows numerous strict guidelines, are mostly not available in the public domain. These safety data are sometimes published as a condensed summary for the few compounds that reach the market, but the majority of studies are never made public and are often difficult to access in an automated way, even sometimes within the owning company itself. It is evident from many academic and industrial examples, that useful data mining and model development requires large and representative data sets and careful curation of the collected data. In 2010, under the auspices of the Innovative Medicines Initiative, the eTOX project started with the objective of extracting and sharing preclinical study data from paper or pdf archives of toxicology departments of the 13 participating pharmaceutical companies and using such data for establishing a detailed, well-curated database, which could then serve as source for read-across approaches (early assessment of the potential toxicity of a drug candidate by comparison of similar structure and/or effects) and training of predictive models. The paper describes the efforts undertaken to allow effective data sharing intellectual property (IP) protection and set up of adequate controlled vocabularies) and to establish the database (currently with over 4000 studies contributed by the pharma companies corresponding to more than 1400 compounds). In addition, the status of predictive models building and some specific features of the eTOX predictive system (eTOXsys) are presented as decision support knowledge-based tools for drug development process at an early stage. PMID:25405742

  16. The eTOX Data-Sharing Project to Advance in Silico Drug-Induced Toxicity Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Cases, Montserrat; Briggs, Katharine; Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Pognan, François; Marc, Philippe; Kleinöder, Thomas; Schwab, Christof H.; Pastor, Manuel; Wichard, Jörg; Sanz, Ferran

    2014-01-01

    The high-quality in vivo preclinical safety data produced by the pharmaceutical industry during drug development, which follows numerous strict guidelines, are mostly not available in the public domain. These safety data are sometimes published as a condensed summary for the few compounds that reach the market, but the majority of studies are never made public and are often difficult to access in an automated way, even sometimes within the owning company itself. It is evident from many academic and industrial examples, that useful data mining and model development requires large and representative data sets and careful curation of the collected data. In 2010, under the auspices of the Innovative Medicines Initiative, the eTOX project started with the objective of extracting and sharing preclinical study data from paper or pdf archives of toxicology departments of the 13 participating pharmaceutical companies and using such data for establishing a detailed, well-curated database, which could then serve as source for read-across approaches (early assessment of the potential toxicity of a drug candidate by comparison of similar structure and/or effects) and training of predictive models. The paper describes the efforts undertaken to allow effective data sharing intellectual property (IP) protection and set up of adequate controlled vocabularies) and to establish the database (currently with over 4000 studies contributed by the pharma companies corresponding to more than 1400 compounds). In addition, the status of predictive models building and some specific features of the eTOX predictive system (eTOXsys) are presented as decision support knowledge-based tools for drug development process at an early stage. PMID:25405742

  17. Advancing hydrometeorological prediction capabilities through standards-based cyberinfrastructure development: The community WRF-Hydro modeling system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    gochis, David; Parodi, Antonio; Hooper, Rick; Jha, Shantenu; Zaslavsky, Ilya

    2013-04-01

    The need for improved assessments and predictions of many key environmental variables is driving a multitude of model development efforts in the geosciences. The proliferation of weather and climate impacts research is driving a host of new environmental prediction model development efforts as society seeks to understand how climate does and will impact key societal activities and resources and, in turn, how human activities influence climate and the environment. This surge in model development has highlighted the role of model coupling as a fundamental activity itself and, at times, a significant bottleneck in weather and climate impacts research. This talk explores some of the recent activities and progress that has been made in assessing the attributes of various approaches to the coupling of physics-based process models for hydrometeorology. One example modeling system that is emerging from these efforts is the community 'WRF-Hydro' modeling system which is based on the modeling architecture of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). An overview of the structural components of WRF-Hydro will be presented as will results from several recent applications which include the prediction of flash flooding events in the Rocky Mountain Front Range region of the U.S. and along the Ligurian coastline in the northern Mediterranean. Efficient integration of the coupled modeling system with distributed infrastructure for collecting and sharing hydrometeorological observations is one of core themes of the work. Specifically, we aim to demonstrate how data management infrastructures used in the US and Europe, in particular data sharing technologies developed within the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System and UNIDATA, can interoperate based on international standards for data discovery and exchange, such as standards developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium and adopted by GEOSS. The data system we envision will help manage WRF-Hydro prediction model data flows, enabling

  18. Advanced prediction technique for the low speed aerodynamics of V/STOL aircraft. Volume 2: User's manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beatty, T. D.; Worthey, M. K.

    1984-01-01

    A computerized prediction method known as the Vought V/STOL Aircraft Propulsive Effects computer program (VAPE) for propulsive induced forces and moments in transition and Short TakeOff and Landing (STOL) flight is improved and evaluated. The VAPE program is capable of evaluating: (1) effects of relative wind about an aircraft, (2) effects of propulsive lift jet entrainment, vorticity and flow blockage, (3) effects of engine inlet flow on the aircraft flow field, (4) engine inlet forces and moments including inlet separation, (5) ground effects in the STOL region of flight, and (6) viscous effects on lifting surfaces.

  19. Advanced Models for Prediction of High Altitude Aero-Thermal Loads of a Space Re-entry Vehicle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Votta, R.; Schettino, A.; Bonfiglioli, A.

    2011-05-01

    The analysis of the rarefaction effects in predicting the main aero-thermal loads of a Space re-entry vehicle is presented. It is well known that the Navier-Stokes equations fail in rarefied regimes and other approaches must be used. In the present paper different configurations have been simulated by using the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method. Moreover, slip flow boundary conditions have been implemented in a Navier-Stokes code in order to extend the validity of the continuum approach to the transitional flow regime. Finally, bridging formulas for high altitude aerodynamics of winged bodies have been used. Firstly, two simple geometries have been analysed, specifically designed to study the phenomenon of shock wave boundary layer interaction: a hollow cylinder flare, for which some experiments are available; and a blunt-nosed flat plate/flap model designed and tested at the Italian Aerospace Research Centre. The other configurations taken into account are, respectively, an experimental winged re-entry vehicle and a capsule, for which global aerodynamic coefficients and local wall heating have been determined with different approaches. The Navier-Stokes code with slip flow boundary conditions has shown good predicting capabilities compared with experiments in the hollow cylinder flare case; however, for the winged vehicle and capsule cases, the CFD results are not fully satisfactory and the Monte Carlo method remains the most reliable approach, together with the bridging formula, that provides good results for the aerodynamic coefficients.

  20. Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, B.; Corbett, D. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Kemp, A.; Lin, N.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

    2013-12-01

    Future inundation of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. Through ongoing, collaborative research we are employing new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea level rise along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic variability. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers, and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. We produced new, high-resolution proxy sea-level reconstructions to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset spans the alternation between the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' and 'Little Ice Age'. Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from four study areas (Connecticut, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, future storm surges will be superimposed on background sea

  1. Uncertainty quantification approaches for advanced reactor analyses.

    SciTech Connect

    Briggs, L. L.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2009-03-24

    The original approach to nuclear reactor design or safety analyses was to make very conservative modeling assumptions so as to ensure meeting the required safety margins. Traditional regulation, as established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission required conservatisms which have subsequently been shown to be excessive. The commission has therefore moved away from excessively conservative evaluations and has determined best-estimate calculations to be an acceptable alternative to conservative models, provided the best-estimate results are accompanied by an uncertainty evaluation which can demonstrate that, when a set of analysis cases which statistically account for uncertainties of all types are generated, there is a 95% probability that at least 95% of the cases meet the safety margins. To date, nearly all published work addressing uncertainty evaluations of nuclear power plant calculations has focused on light water reactors and on large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) analyses. However, there is nothing in the uncertainty evaluation methodologies that is limited to a specific type of reactor or to specific types of plant scenarios. These same methodologies can be equally well applied to analyses for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and to liquid metal reactors, and they can be applied to steady-state calculations, operational transients, or severe accident scenarios. This report reviews and compares both statistical and deterministic uncertainty evaluation approaches. Recommendations are given for selection of an uncertainty methodology and for considerations to be factored into the process of evaluating uncertainties for advanced reactor best-estimate analyses.

  2. Advances in the use of vegetation structure metrics to predict biodiversity patterns and associated habitat use (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goetz, S. J.

    2010-12-01

    Ecologists have long sought to explain patterns of biodiversity based on latitude, area, environmental heterogeneity, evolutionary rates, and other factors. Canopy structural complexity influences the abundance and distribution of species by creating a greater variety of microclimates and microhabitats, which in turn produce more diverse food and cover for a broader range of species and greater numbers of individuals. Prior to the availability of satellite data, field-based studies at local spatial scales revealed the strong role of vegetation structure in driving biodiversity. Capabilities now exist to derive canopy structure information in great detail using a range of remote sensing observations. I will review some recent advances in this rapidly evolving field, focusing primarily but not exclusively on the use of laser remote sensing (light detection and ranging). These data sets are useful for deriving aspects of canopy structure that are related to habitat heterogeneity, vertical complexity and the associated patterns of habitat suitability and utilization by organisms. I will explore how different habitat attributes are related to aspects of biodiversity, i.e. species richness and abundance. I will focus primarily on birds, because they are the best studied organisms, but will also discuss other organisms, as well as the influence of scale and the relevance of this research to species range modeling and broader conservation efforts.

  3. Blood neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio predicts survival in locally advanced cancer stomach treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy FOLFOX 4.

    PubMed

    el Aziz, Lamiss Mohamed Abd

    2014-12-01

    Accurate predictors of survival for patients with advanced gastric cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy are currently lacking. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with stage III-IV gastric cancer who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy FOLFOX 4 as neoadjuvant chemotherapy. We enrolled 70 patients with stage III-IV cancer stomach in this study. Patients received FOLFOX 4 as neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Blood sample was collected before chemotherapy. The NLR was divided into two groups: high (>3) and low (≤ 3). Univariate analysis on progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was performed using the Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests, and multivariate analysis was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The toxicity was evaluated according to National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria. The univariate analysis showed that PFS and OS were both worse for patients with high NLR than for those with low NLR before chemotherapy (median PFS 28 and 44 months, respectively, P = 0.001; median OS 30 and 48 months, P = 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that NLRs before chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors of OS but not for progression-free survival. NLR may serve as a potential biomarker for survival prognosis in patients with stage III-IV gastric cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The FOLFOX 4 demonstrated an acceptable toxicity.

  4. Correlation of predicted and measured thermal stresses on an advanced aircraft structure with dissimilar materials. [hypersonic heating simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    Additional information was added to a growing data base from which estimates of finite element model complexities can be made with respect to thermal stress analysis. The manner in which temperatures were smeared to the finite element grid points was examined from the point of view of the impact on thermal stress calculations. The general comparison of calculated and measured thermal stresses is guite good and there is little doubt that the finite element approach provided by NASTRAN results in correct thermal stress calculations. Discrepancies did exist between measured and calculated values in the skin and the skin/frame junctures. The problems with predicting skin thermal stress were attributed to inadequate temperature inputs to the structural model rather than modeling insufficiencies. The discrepancies occurring at the skin/frame juncture were most likely due to insufficient modeling elements rather than temperature problems.

  5. NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel

    2010-01-01

    AIRS is a precision state of the art High Spectral Resolution Multi-detector IR grating array spectrometer that was launched into a polar orbit on EOS Aqua in 2002. AIRS measures most of the infra-red spectrum with very low noise from 650/cm to 2660/cm with a resolving power of 2400 at a spatial resolution of 13 km. The objectives of AIRS were to perform accurate determination of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in up to 90% partial cloud cover conditions for the purpose of improving numerical weather prediction and understanding climate processes. AIRS data has also been used to determine accurate trace gas profiles. A brief overview of the retrieval methodology used to analyze AIRS observations under partial cloud cover will be presented and sample results will be shown from the weather and climate perspectives.

  6. The GEO Water Strategy: Advances in Monitoring, Modeling, and Predicting Groundwater Variations at Regional to Local Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, N. L.; Heinrich, L.; Kukuri, N.; Plag, H.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Rodell, M.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater remains one of the most important freshwater resources, especially during droughts and as global warming increases. For informed decisions on managing these resources sustainably, it is important to have sound assessments of the current state of groundwater resources as well as future predictions. This requires reliable groundwater quantity and quality data. However global access to this data is limited. As part of the GEOSS Water Strategy, the International Groundwater Assessment Centre (IGRAC) is therefore implementing the Global Groundwater Monitoring Network (GGMN). The GGMN facilitates periodic assessments of changes in groundwater quantity and quality by aggregating data and information from existing groundwater monitoring networks and regional hydrogeological knowledge (Fig. 1). The GGMN is a participatory process that relies upon contributions from regional and national networks of groundwater experts. Such observation data, along with local well data, surface displacements observed by and GPS data and InSAR, and local in situ gravity data, are necessary for evaluation and simulation of groundwater, leading to improved understanding and prediction of groundwater variations. In conjunction with these observations, regional scale groundwater variations are derived as a residual from land surface-groundwater models through extraction of the total mass of water using geo-rectified Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. Such model-based studies have quantified overdraft and regions at risk of groundwater depletion in parts of Asia, US, and Africa (Fig. 2).We provide an overview of these systems, planned missions, and new model-based approaches toward local-scale methods for assimilation of well data for several regions.igure 1. Example of GGMN (Example of Botswana with fictitious data, with local precipitation map) igure 2. GRACE-derived groundwater storage in northwestern India for 2002 - 2008, relative to the mean. Deviations from

  7. Predictive Method for Correct Identification of Archaeological Charred Grape Seeds: Support for Advances in Knowledge of Grape Domestication Process

    PubMed Central

    Ucchesu, Mariano; Orrù, Martino; Grillo, Oscar; Venora, Gianfranco; Paglietti, Giacomo; Ardu, Andrea; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

    2016-01-01

    The identification of archaeological charred grape seeds is a difficult task due to the alteration of the morphological seeds shape. In archaeobotanical studies, for the correct discrimination between Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris and Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera grape seeds it is very important to understand the history and origin of the domesticated grapevine. In this work, different carbonisation experiments were carried out using a hearth to reproduce the same burning conditions that occurred in archaeological contexts. In addition, several carbonisation trials on modern wild and cultivated grape seeds were performed using a muffle furnace. For comparison with archaeological materials, modern grape seed samples were obtained using seven different temperatures of carbonisation ranging between 180 and 340ºC for 120 min. Analysing the grape seed size and shape by computer vision techniques, and applying the stepwise linear discriminant analysis (LDA) method, discrimination of the wild from the cultivated charred grape seeds was possible. An overall correct classification of 93.3% was achieved. Applying the same statistical procedure to compare modern charred with archaeological grape seeds, found in Sardinia and dating back to the Early Bronze Age (2017–1751 2σ cal. BC), allowed 75.0% of the cases to be identified as wild grape. The proposed method proved to be a useful and effective procedure in identifying, with high accuracy, the charred grape seeds found in archaeological sites. Moreover, it may be considered valid support for advances in the knowledge and comprehension of viticulture adoption and the grape domestication process. The same methodology may also be successful when applied to other plant remains, and provide important information about the history of domesticated plants. PMID:26901361

  8. Skin autofluorescence, a measure of cumulative metabolic stress and advanced glycation end products, predicts mortality in hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Meerwaldt, Robbert; Hartog, Jasper W L; Graaff, Reindert; Huisman, Roel J; Links, Thera P; den Hollander, Nynke C; Thorpe, Susan R; Baynes, John W; Navis, Gerjan; Gans, Rijk O B; Smit, Andries J

    2005-12-01

    Tissue advanced glycation end products (AGE) are a measure of cumulative metabolic stress and trigger cytokines driven inflammatory reactions. AGE are thought to contribute to the chronic complications of diabetes and ESRD. Tissue autofluorescence is related to the accumulation of AGE. Therefore, skin autofluorescence (AF) may provide prognostic information on mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Skin AF was measured noninvasively with an AF reader at baseline in 109 HD patients. Overall and cardiovascular mortality was monitored prospectively during a period of 3 yr. The AF reader was validated against AGE contents in skin biopsies from 29 dialysis patients. Forty-two of the 109 (38.5%) HD patients died. Cox regression analysis showed that AF was an independent predictor of overall and cardiovascular mortality (for overall mortality odds ratio [OR] 3.9), as were pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD; OR 3.1), C-reactive protein (OR 1.1), and serum albumin (OR 0.3). Multivariate analysis revealed that 65% of the variance in AF could be attributed to the independent effects of age, dialysis and renal failure duration, presence of diabetes, triglycerides levels, and C-reactive protein. AF was also independently linked to the presence of CVD at baseline (OR 8.8; P < 0.001). AF correlated with collagen-linked fluorescence (r = 0.71, P < 0.001), pentosidine (r = 0.75, P < 0.001), and carboxy(m)ethyllysine (both r = 0.45, P < 0.01). Skin AF is a strong and independent predictor of mortality in ESRD. This supports a role for AGE as a contributor to mortality and CVD and warrants interventions specifically aimed at AGE accumulation.

  9. Predictive Method for Correct Identification of Archaeological Charred Grape Seeds: Support for Advances in Knowledge of Grape Domestication Process.

    PubMed

    Ucchesu, Mariano; Orrù, Martino; Grillo, Oscar; Venora, Gianfranco; Paglietti, Giacomo; Ardu, Andrea; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

    2016-01-01

    The identification of archaeological charred grape seeds is a difficult task due to the alteration of the morphological seeds shape. In archaeobotanical studies, for the correct discrimination between Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris and Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera grape seeds it is very important to understand the history and origin of the domesticated grapevine. In this work, different carbonisation experiments were carried out using a hearth to reproduce the same burning conditions that occurred in archaeological contexts. In addition, several carbonisation trials on modern wild and cultivated grape seeds were performed using a muffle furnace. For comparison with archaeological materials, modern grape seed samples were obtained using seven different temperatures of carbonisation ranging between 180 and 340ºC for 120 min. Analysing the grape seed size and shape by computer vision techniques, and applying the stepwise linear discriminant analysis (LDA) method, discrimination of the wild from the cultivated charred grape seeds was possible. An overall correct classification of 93.3% was achieved. Applying the same statistical procedure to compare modern charred with archaeological grape seeds, found in Sardinia and dating back to the Early Bronze Age (2017-1751 2σ cal. BC), allowed 75.0% of the cases to be identified as wild grape. The proposed method proved to be a useful and effective procedure in identifying, with high accuracy, the charred grape seeds found in archaeological sites. Moreover, it may be considered valid support for advances in the knowledge and comprehension of viticulture adoption and the grape domestication process. The same methodology may also be successful when applied to other plant remains, and provide important information about the history of domesticated plants.

  10. Skin autofluorescence, a measure of cumulative metabolic stress and advanced glycation end products, predicts mortality in hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Meerwaldt, Robbert; Hartog, Jasper W L; Graaff, Reindert; Huisman, Roel J; Links, Thera P; den Hollander, Nynke C; Thorpe, Susan R; Baynes, John W; Navis, Gerjan; Gans, Rijk O B; Smit, Andries J

    2005-12-01

    Tissue advanced glycation end products (AGE) are a measure of cumulative metabolic stress and trigger cytokines driven inflammatory reactions. AGE are thought to contribute to the chronic complications of diabetes and ESRD. Tissue autofluorescence is related to the accumulation of AGE. Therefore, skin autofluorescence (AF) may provide prognostic information on mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Skin AF was measured noninvasively with an AF reader at baseline in 109 HD patients. Overall and cardiovascular mortality was monitored prospectively during a period of 3 yr. The AF reader was validated against AGE contents in skin biopsies from 29 dialysis patients. Forty-two of the 109 (38.5%) HD patients died. Cox regression analysis showed that AF was an independent predictor of overall and cardiovascular mortality (for overall mortality odds ratio [OR] 3.9), as were pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD; OR 3.1), C-reactive protein (OR 1.1), and serum albumin (OR 0.3). Multivariate analysis revealed that 65% of the variance in AF could be attributed to the independent effects of age, dialysis and renal failure duration, presence of diabetes, triglycerides levels, and C-reactive protein. AF was also independently linked to the presence of CVD at baseline (OR 8.8; P < 0.001). AF correlated with collagen-linked fluorescence (r = 0.71, P < 0.001), pentosidine (r = 0.75, P < 0.001), and carboxy(m)ethyllysine (both r = 0.45, P < 0.01). Skin AF is a strong and independent predictor of mortality in ESRD. This supports a role for AGE as a contributor to mortality and CVD and warrants interventions specifically aimed at AGE accumulation. PMID:16280473

  11. Predictive Method for Correct Identification of Archaeological Charred Grape Seeds: Support for Advances in Knowledge of Grape Domestication Process.

    PubMed

    Ucchesu, Mariano; Orrù, Martino; Grillo, Oscar; Venora, Gianfranco; Paglietti, Giacomo; Ardu, Andrea; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

    2016-01-01

    The identification of archaeological charred grape seeds is a difficult task due to the alteration of the morphological seeds shape. In archaeobotanical studies, for the correct discrimination between Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris and Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera grape seeds it is very important to understand the history and origin of the domesticated grapevine. In this work, different carbonisation experiments were carried out using a hearth to reproduce the same burning conditions that occurred in archaeological contexts. In addition, several carbonisation trials on modern wild and cultivated grape seeds were performed using a muffle furnace. For comparison with archaeological materials, modern grape seed samples were obtained using seven different temperatures of carbonisation ranging between 180 and 340ºC for 120 min. Analysing the grape seed size and shape by computer vision techniques, and applying the stepwise linear discriminant analysis (LDA) method, discrimination of the wild from the cultivated charred grape seeds was possible. An overall correct classification of 93.3% was achieved. Applying the same statistical procedure to compare modern charred with archaeological grape seeds, found in Sardinia and dating back to the Early Bronze Age (2017-1751 2σ cal. BC), allowed 75.0% of the cases to be identified as wild grape. The proposed method proved to be a useful and effective procedure in identifying, with high accuracy, the charred grape seeds found in archaeological sites. Moreover, it may be considered valid support for advances in the knowledge and comprehension of viticulture adoption and the grape domestication process. The same methodology may also be successful when applied to other plant remains, and provide important information about the history of domesticated plants. PMID:26901361

  12. Potential predictive role of chemotherapy-induced changes of soluble CD40 ligand in untreated advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Azzariti, Amalia; Brunetti, Oronzo; Porcelli, Letizia; Graziano, Giusi; Iacobazzi, Rosa Maria; Signorile, Michele; Scarpa, Aldo; Lorusso, Vito; Silvestris, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Pancreas ductal adenocarcinoma lacks predictive biomarkers. CD40 is a member of the tumor necrosis factor superfamily. CD40-sCD40L interaction is considered to contribute to the promotion of tumor cell growth and angiogenesis. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of serum sCD40L as a predictor in metastatic pancreatic cancer. We evaluated 27 consecutive pancreatic cancer patients treated with FOLFIRINOX (21 patients) or gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel combination (six patients). The sCD40L level was measured in serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at baseline, at first evaluation (all patients), and at time to progression (18 patients). The radiological response was evaluated according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors, Version 1.1. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare pre-post treatment sCD40L levels with respect to clinical response, while Pearson's correlation coefficient was used for the correlation between sCD40L and CA19.9 pre- and post-treatment. The Kruskal-Wallis test was also conducted for further comparisons. We observed a statistically significant reduction in the sCD40L level after 3 months of treatment in patients with partial response (11,718.05±7,097.13 pg/mL vs 4,689.42±5,409.96 pg/mL; P<0.01). Conversely, in patients with progressive disease, the biomarker statistically increased in the same time (9,351.51±7,356.91 pg/mL vs 22,282.92±11,629.35 pg/mL; P<0.01). This trend of sCD40L was confirmed in 18 patients at time to progression after the first evaluation. No differences were recorded within the stable disease group. Moreover, there was a positive correlation between the sCD40L and CA19.9 pre-post treatment variation percentage (Pearson's correlation coefficient =0.52; P<0.05). Our data suggest a possible predictive role of sCD40L in pancreatic cancer patients, similar to CA19.9. PMID:27555786

  13. Potential predictive role of chemotherapy-induced changes of soluble CD40 ligand in untreated advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Azzariti, Amalia; Brunetti, Oronzo; Porcelli, Letizia; Graziano, Giusi; Iacobazzi, Rosa Maria; Signorile, Michele; Scarpa, Aldo; Lorusso, Vito; Silvestris, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Pancreas ductal adenocarcinoma lacks predictive biomarkers. CD40 is a member of the tumor necrosis factor superfamily. CD40–sCD40L interaction is considered to contribute to the promotion of tumor cell growth and angiogenesis. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of serum sCD40L as a predictor in metastatic pancreatic cancer. We evaluated 27 consecutive pancreatic cancer patients treated with FOLFIRINOX (21 patients) or gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel combination (six patients). The sCD40L level was measured in serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at baseline, at first evaluation (all patients), and at time to progression (18 patients). The radiological response was evaluated according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors, Version 1.1. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare pre–post treatment sCD40L levels with respect to clinical response, while Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used for the correlation between sCD40L and CA19.9 pre- and post-treatment. The Kruskal–Wallis test was also conducted for further comparisons. We observed a statistically significant reduction in the sCD40L level after 3 months of treatment in patients with partial response (11,718.05±7,097.13 pg/mL vs 4,689.42±5,409.96 pg/mL; P<0.01). Conversely, in patients with progressive disease, the biomarker statistically increased in the same time (9,351.51±7,356.91 pg/mL vs 22,282.92±11,629.35 pg/mL; P<0.01). This trend of sCD40L was confirmed in 18 patients at time to progression after the first evaluation. No differences were recorded within the stable disease group. Moreover, there was a positive correlation between the sCD40L and CA19.9 pre–post treatment variation percentage (Pearson’s correlation coefficient =0.52; P<0.05). Our data suggest a possible predictive role of sCD40L in pancreatic cancer patients, similar to CA19.9. PMID:27555786

  14. Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Address the U.S. Priorities and Advance Capabilities for Arctic Climate Modeling and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Cassano, J. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Nijssen, B.; Osinski, R.; Zeng, X.; Brunke, M.; Duvivier, A.; Hamman, J.; Hossainzadeh, S.; Hughes, M.; Seefeldt, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic is undergoing some of the most coordinated rapid climatic changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth, including the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Earth System Models (ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in ESMs generally remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that relate to a combination of coarse resolution, inadequate parameterizations, under-represented processes and a limited knowledge of physical interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the ESM limitations in simulating observed variability and trends in arctic surface climate. RASM is a high resolution, pan-Arctic coupled climate model with the sea ice and ocean model components configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12o and the atmosphere and land hydrology model components at 50 km resolution, which are all coupled at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled ESM, which due to the constraints from boundary conditions facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with ESMs. The overall goal of RASM is to address key requirements published in the Navy Arctic Roadmap: 2014-2030 and in the Implementation Plan for the National Strategy for the Arctic Region, regarding the need for advanced modeling capabilities for operational forecasting and strategic climate predictions through 2030. The main science objectives of RASM are to advance understanding and model representation of critical physical processes and feedbacks of importance to sea ice thickness and area distribution. RASM results are presented to quantify relative contributions by (i) resolved processes and feedbacks as well as (ii) sensitivity to space dependent sub-grid parameterizations to better

  15. Advances in toponomics drug discovery: Imaging cycler microscopy correctly predicts a therapy method of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Schubert, Walter

    2015-01-01

    An imaging cycler microscope (ICM) is a fully automated (epi)fluorescence microscope which overcomes the spectral resolution limit resulting in parameter- and dimension-unlimited fluorescence imaging. This enables the spatial resolution of large molecular systems with their emergent topological properties (toponome) in morphologically intact cells and tissues displaying thousands of multi protein assemblies at a time. The resulting combinatorial geometry of these systems has been shown to be key for in-vivo/in-situ detection of lead proteins controlling protein network topology and (dys)function: If lead proteins are blocked or downregulated the corresponding disease protein network disassembles. Here, correct therapeutic predictions are exemplified for ALS. ICM drug target studies have discovered an 18-dimensional cell surface molecular system in ALS-PBMC with a lead drug target protein, whose therapeutic downregulation is now reported to show statistically significant effect with stop of disease progression in one third of the ALS patients. Together, this clinical and the earlier experimental validations of the ICM approach indicate that ICM readily discovers in vivo robustness nodes of disease with lead proteins controlling them. Breaking in vivo robustness nodes using drugs against their lead proteins is likely to overcome current high drug attrition rates. © 2015 The Author. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc, on behalf of ISAC. PMID:25869332

  16. Predictive value of EGFR overexpression and gene amplification on icotinib efficacy in patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Qingxia; Lu, Ping; Ma, Changwu; Liu, Wei; Liu, Ying; Li, Weiwei; Hu, Shaoxuan; Ling, Yun; Guo, Lei; Ying, Jianming; Huang, Jing

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to search for a molecular marker for targeted epithelial growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitor Icotinib by analyzing protein expression and amplification of EGFR proto-oncogene in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients. Immunohistochemistry and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) was used to assess EGFR expression and gene amplification status in 193 patients with ESCC. We also examined the association between EGFR overexpression and the efficacy of a novel EGFR TKI, icotinib, in 62 ESCC patients. Of the 193 patients, 95 (49.2%) patients showed EGFR overexpression (3+), and 47(24.4%) patients harbored EGFR FISH positivity. EGFR overexpression was significantly correlated with clinical stage and lymph node metastasis (p<0.05). In addition, EGFR overexpression was significantly correlated with EGFR FISH positivity (p<0.001). Among the 62 patients who received icotinib, the response rate was 17.6% for patients with high EGFR-expressing tumors, which was markedly higher than the rate (0%) for patients with low to moderate EGFR-expressing tumors (p=0.341). Furthermore, all cases responded to icotinib showed EGFR overexpression. In conclusion, our study suggests that EGFR overexpression might potentially be used in predicting the efficacy in patients treated with Icotinib. These data have implications for both clinical trial design and therapeutic strategies. PMID:27013591

  17. Development of an advanced, high-frequency GPR technique for the assessment of concrete structures: from modeling predictions to experimental results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheilakou, Eleni; Matikas, Theodore E.

    2016-04-01

    The main objective of this paper is to develop a portable, advanced and high operating frequency GPR prototype system, which will be able to provide an increased sensitivity and resolution in terms of defects detectability at a penetration depth range up to 40-50 cm in concrete. For this purpose, the theoretical assessment of multiple GPR antenna-frequency approaches was initially performed using electromagnetic wave simulation tools for the propagation of radar waves within concrete, aiming to predict the required antenna frequency and characteristics that are most effective in detecting internal concrete elements and defects of interest found in realistic structures. Form the modeling results obtained, which are described in this paper, a portable, advanced, single-channel GPR system was developed, which uses a highfrequency shielded dipole antenna in monostatic arrangement and operates at a central operating frequency of 2600 MHz. Finally, the evaluation of the performance of the developed GPR technology was carried out under laboratory conditions, where concrete samples of varying dimensions and with different embedded structural features of known characteristics were tested. The validation results produced from this study indicated the high potential and efficiency of the developed GPR device to accurately detect internal concrete features with superior resolution and with sufficient penetration for concrete to be adequately resolved in depths up to 40 cm.

  18. Researches on the Nankai trough mega thrust earthquake seismogenic zones using real time observing systems for advanced early warning systems and predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2015-04-01

    We recognized the importance of real time monitoring on Earthquakes and Tsunamis Based on lessons learned from 2004 Sumatra Earthquake/Tsunamis and 2011 East Japan Earthquake. We deployed DONET1 and are developing DONET2 as real time monitoring systems which are dense ocean floor networks around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone Southwestern Japan. Total observatories of DONE1 and DONET2 are 51 observatories equipped with multi kinds of sensors such as the accelerometer, broadband seismometer, pressure gauge, difference pressure gauge, hydrophone and thermometer in each observatory. These systems are indispensable for not only early warning of Earthquakes/ Tsunamis, but also researches on broadband crustal activities around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone for predictions. DONET1 detected offshore tsunamis 15 minutes earlier than onshore stations at the 2011 East Japan earthquake/tsunami. Furthermore, DONET1/DONET2 will be expected to monitor slow events such as low frequency tremors and slow earthquakes for the prediction researches. Finally, the integration of observations and simulation researches will contribute to estimate of seismic stage changes from the inter-seismic to pre seismic stage. I will introduce applications of DONET1/DONET2 data and advanced simulation researches.

  19. High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction (HD(CP)2): Large Eddy Simulation Study Over Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dipankar, A.; Stevens, B. B.; Zängl, G.; Pondkule, M.; Brdar, S.

    2014-12-01

    The effect of clouds on large scale dynamics is represented in climate models through parameterization of various processes, of which the parameterization of shallow and deep convection are particularly uncertain. The atmospheric boundary layer, which controls the coupling to the surface, and which defines the scale of shallow convection, is typically 1 km in depth. Thus, simulations on a O(100 m) grid largely obviate the need for such parameterizations. By crossing this threshold of O(100m) grid resolution one can begin thinking of large-eddy simulation (LES), wherein the sub-grid scale parameterization have a sounder theoretical foundation. Substantial initiatives have been taken internationally to approach this threshold. For example, Miura et al., 2007 and Mirakawa et al., 2014 approach this threshold by doing global simulations, with (gradually) decreasing grid resolution, to understand the effect of cloud-resolving scales on the general circulation. Our strategy, on the other hand, is to take a big leap forward by fixing the resolution at O(100 m), and gradually increasing the domain size. We believe that breaking this threshold would greatly help in improving the parameterization schemes and reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions. To take this forward, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research has initiated a project on HD(CP)2 that aims for a limited area LES at resolution O(100 m) using the new unified modeling system ICON (Zängl et al., 2014). In the talk, results from the HD(CP)2 evaluation simulation will be shown that targets high resolution simulation over a small domain around Jülich, Germany. This site is chosen because high resolution HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment took place in this region from 1.04.2013 to 31.05.2013, in order to critically evaluate the model. Nesting capabilities of ICON is used to gradually increase the resolution from the outermost domain, which is forced from the COSMO-DE data, to the

  20. Weight and cost forecasting for advanced manned space vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Raymond

    1989-01-01

    A mass and cost estimating computerized methology for predicting advanced manned space vehicle weights and costs was developed. The user friendly methology designated MERCER (Mass Estimating Relationship/Cost Estimating Relationship) organizes the predictive process according to major vehicle subsystem levels. Design, development, test, evaluation, and flight hardware cost forecasting is treated by the study. This methodology consists of a complete set of mass estimating relationships (MERs) which serve as the control components for the model and cost estimating relationships (CERs) which use MER output as input. To develop this model, numerous MER and CER studies were surveyed and modified where required. Additionally, relationships were regressed from raw data to accommodate the methology. The models and formulations which estimated the cost of historical vehicles to within 20 percent of the actual cost were selected. The result of the research, along with components of the MERCER Program, are reported. On the basis of the analysis, the following conclusions were established: (1) The cost of a spacecraft is best estimated by summing the cost of individual subsystems; (2) No one cost equation can be used for forecasting the cost of all spacecraft; (3) Spacecraft cost is highly correlated with its mass; (4) No study surveyed contained sufficient formulations to autonomously forecast the cost and weight of the entire advanced manned vehicle spacecraft program; (5) No user friendly program was found that linked MERs with CERs to produce spacecraft cost; and (6) The group accumulation weight estimation method (summing the estimated weights of the various subsystems) proved to be a useful method for finding total weight and cost of a spacecraft.

  1. Predictive role of microRNA-related genetic polymorphisms in the pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Dreussi, Eva; Pucciarelli, Salvatore; De Paoli, Antonino; Polesel, Jerry; Canzonieri, Vincenzo; Agostini, Marco; Friso, Maria Luisa; Belluco, Claudio; Buonadonna, Angela; Lonardi, Sara; Zanusso, Chiara; De Mattia, Elena; Toffoli, Giuseppe; Cecchin, Erika

    2016-01-01

    In rectal cancer, a pathologic complete response (pCR) to pre-operative treatment is a favourable prognostic marker, but is reported in a minority of the patients. We aimed at identifying microRNA-related host genetic polymorphisms predictive of pCR. A panel of 114 microRNA-related tagging polymorphisms was selected and analyzed on 265 locally advanced rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy. Patients were stratified in two subgroups according to the radiotherapy dose (50.4Gy for 202 patients, 55.0Gy for 78 patients). Interactions among genetic and clinical-pathological variants were investigated by recursive partitioning analysis. Only polymorphisms with a consistent significant effect in the two subgroups of patients were selected as predictive markers of pCR. The results were validated by bootstrap analysis. SMAD3-rs744910, SMAD3-rs745103, and TRBP-rs6088619 were associated to an increased chance of pCR (p=0.0153, p=0.0471, p=0.0125). DROSHA-rs10719 and SMAD3-rs17228212 had an opposite detrimental effect on pathological tumour response (p=0.0274, p=0.0049). Recursive partitioning analysis highlighted that a longer interval time between the end of radiotherapy and surgery increases the chance of pCR in patients with a specific combination of SMAD3-rs744910 and TRBP-rs6088619 genotypes. This study demonstrated that microRNA-related host genetic polymorphisms can predict pCR to neo-adjuvant chemo-radiotherapy, and could be used to personalize the interval time between the end of radiotherapy and surgery. PMID:26934318

  2. Development and validation of advanced CFD models for detailed predictions of void distribution in a BWR bundle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neykov, Boyan

    , it is important to extend validity of the current correlations for the lift coefficients to higher void (gas) phase fractions. After investigating the underlying physics and analyzing a large amount of experimental data, an improved model for lift force at different void fraction levels, including large bubbles and slug flow regime, is proposed. The model is implemented in STAR-CD and validated. The validation of the models is performed against five different experiments, characterized by different geometries at different boundary conditions. Comparison with the already existing models in STAR-CD code is performed and it is found that the newly integrated force models for drag and lift forces leads to more accurate void distribution predictions.

  3. Prediction of clinical toxicity in locally advanced head and neck cancer patients by radio-induced apoptosis in peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBLs)

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Head and neck cancer is treated mainly by surgery and radiotherapy. Normal tissue toxicity due to x-ray exposure is a limiting factor for treatment success. Many efforts have been employed to develop predictive tests applied to clinical practice. Determination of lymphocyte radio-sensitivity by radio-induced apoptosis arises as a possible method to predict tissue toxicity due to radiotherapy. The aim of the present study was to analyze radio-induced apoptosis of peripheral blood lymphocytes in head and neck cancer patients and to explore their role in predicting radiation induced toxicity. Seventy nine consecutive patients suffering from head and neck cancer, diagnosed and treated in our institution, were included in the study. Toxicity was evaluated using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group scale. Peripheral blood lymphocytes were isolated and irradiated at 0, 1, 2 and 8 Gy during 24 hours. Apoptosis was measured by flow cytometry using annexin V/propidium iodide. Lymphocytes were marked with CD45 APC-conjugated monoclonal antibody. Radiation-induced apoptosis increased in order to radiation dose and fitted to a semi logarithmic model defined by two constants: α and β. α, as the origin of the curve in the Y axis determining the percentage of spontaneous cell death, and β, as the slope of the curve determining the percentage of cell death induced at a determined radiation dose, were obtained. β value was statistically associated to normal tissue toxicity in terms of severe xerostomia, as higher levels of apoptosis were observed in patients with low toxicity (p = 0.035; Exp(B) 0.224, I.C.95% (0.060-0.904)). These data agree with our previous results and suggest that it is possible to estimate the radiosensitivity of peripheral blood lymphocytes from patients determining the radiation induced apoptosis with annexin V/propidium iodide staining. β values observed define an individual radiosensitivity profile that could predict late toxicity due to radiotherapy

  4. Early Clinical Response after 2 Weeks of Sorafenib Therapy Predicts Outcomes and Anti-Tumor Response in Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Kuzuya, Teiji; Ishigami, Masatoshi; Ishizu, Yoji; Honda, Takashi; Hayashi, Kazuhiko; Katano, Yoshiaki; Hirooka, Yoshiki; Ishikawa, Tetsuya; Nakano, Isao; Goto, Hidemi

    2015-01-01

    Background & Aims We evaluated the relationship between the early clinical response after 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy and the outcomes and anti-tumor response in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. Methods Fifty-seven patients who had intrahepatic hypervascular hepatocellular carcinoma and Child-Pugh (CP) class A disease at baseline were enrolled in this prospective, multicenter, observational, non-interventional study. As an early clinical response after 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy, changes in intra-tumor blood flow on contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, and remnant liver function were investigated. Results After 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy, there were 26 patients (45.6%) without disappearance of arterial tumor enhancement on CE-CT, 15 patients (26.3%) with an AFP ratio of >1.2, and seven patients (12.3%) with two or more increments in the CP score. Multivariate analysis showed that the absence of disappearance of arterial tumor enhancement on CE-CT, AFP ratio of >1.2, and two or more increments in the CP score after 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy were significant and independent predictors of worse survival. Upon scoring these three variables as "poor prognostic factors", patients with poor prognostic score 4, 3 or 2 (n = 17) had significantly worse outcomes and a significantly higher progressive disease (PD) rate based on modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors at 6 weeks after sorafenib therapy than those with poor prognostic score 1 or 0 (n = 40) (median overall survival: 194 days vs. 378 days; p = 0.0010, PD rate: 70.6% vs. 20.0%; p = 0.0003, respectively). Conclusions Changes in intra-tumor blood flow on CE-CT, AFP levels, and remnant liver function after 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy may be useful for predicting the outcomes and anti-tumor response to sorafenib in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. PMID:26421430

  5. FRAPTRAN Predictability of High Burnup Advanced Fuel Performance: Analysis of the CABRI CIP0-1 and CIP0-2 Experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Del Barrio, M.T.; Herranz, L.E.

    2007-07-01

    Adequacy of analytical tools to estimate advanced high burnup fuel during a power pulse need to be soundly proven. Most of models in codes dealing with transient are extrapolations of those developed for lower irradiations. In addition, lack of open information prevents often a proper account of mechanical properties of new advanced cladding material. These circumstances make experimental programs on high burnup fuel performance an indispensable tool to enhance safety codes predictability through building up sound databases on which models can be extended or developed and on which suitable code performance can be proven. The experiments CIP0-1 and CIP0-2, carried out on 2002 in the CABRI reactor, can be seen as reference tests to investigate high burnup fuel response to RIA transients. Fuel rods of up to 75 GWd/tU (average rod burnup) encapsulated in advanced cladding materials (ZIRLO and M5) were submitted to power pulses of about 30 ms of half maximum width that injected 90-100 cal/g after 1.2 s. None of the rodlets failed during the experiments, but they underwent deformation that was experimentally determined. The FRAPTRAN code has been used for the analysis of these RIA tests. The fuel rod characterization necessary for FRAPTRAN at the end of the base irradiation, prior to the transient, was provided by FRAPCON-3. An investigation of major deviations of fuel rod characterization at the end of the base irradiation has highlighted that thermal uncertainties could result in outstanding discrepancies in FGR estimates. Transient comparison with the available data shows that FRAPTRAN presents a relatively good agreement in permanent clad hoop strain and overestimates significantly the axial elongation of the cladding. The potential effect of approximations made in describing the cladding mechanical behavior, the fuel-to-clad relative movement and the pre-transient gap width, have been all discussed. Given existing uncertainties, a conclusive statement could not be

  6. Final Results of the Telaprevir Access Program: FibroScan Values Predict Safety and Efficacy in Hepatitis C Patients with Advanced Fibrosis or Cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Lepida, Antonia; Colombo, Massimo; Fernandez, Inmaculada; Abdurakhmanov, Djamal; Abrao Ferreira, Paulo; Strasser, Simone I.; Urbanek, Petr; Mangia, Alessandra; Calleja, José L.; Iraqi, Wafae; DeMasi, Ralph; Lonjon-Domanec, Isabelle

    2015-01-01

    Background Liver stiffness determined by transient elastography is correlated with hepatic fibrosis stage and has high accuracy for detecting severe fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C patients. We evaluated the clinical value of baseline FibroScan values for the prediction of safety and efficacy of telaprevir-based therapy in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in the telaprevir Early Access Program HEP3002. Methods 1,772 patients with HCV-1 and bridging fibrosis or cirrhosis were treated with telaprevir plus pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin (PR) for 12 weeks followed by PR alone, the total treatment duration depending on virological response and previous response type. Liver fibrosis stage was determined either by liver biopsy or by non-invasive markers. 1,282 patients (72%) had disease stage assessed by FibroScan; among those 46% were classified as Metavir F3 at baseline and 54% as F4. Results Overall, 1,139 patients (64%) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) by intention-to-treat analysis. Baseline FibroScan values were tested for association with SVR and the occurrence of adverse events. By univariate analysis, higher baseline FibroScan values were predictive of lower sustained virological response rates and treatment-related anemia. By multivariate analysis, FibroScan was no longer statistically significant as an independent predictor, but higher FibroScan values were correlated with the occurrence of infections and serious adverse events. Conclusions FibroScan has a limited utility as a predictor of safety and efficacy in patients treated with telaprevir-based triple therapy. Nevertheless it can be used in association with other clinical and biological parameters to help determine patients who will benefit from the triple regiments. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01508286 PMID:26398503

  7. Can an IL13 -1112 C/T (rs1800925) polymorphism predict responsiveness to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and survival of Chinese Han patients with locally advanced rectal cancer?

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Hui; Xi, Shaoyan; Xiao, Weiwei; Zeng, Zhifan; Zhang, Huizhong; Xu, Ruihua; Gao, Yuanhong

    2016-01-01

    We sought to determine whether a polymorphism in the Interleukin 13 gene (IL13), 1112 C/T (rs1800925) predicts responsiveness to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (neoCRT) and prognosis in Chinese Han patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Pre-treatment biopsies of primary rectal lesion and surgical specimens were collected from 58 patients with LARC, who were treated with neoCRT and surgery. Tumor DNA was extracted from these biopsies and sequenced to analyze the rs1800925 polymorphism. The tumor response to neoCRT was categorized using a tumor regression grade (TRG, 0-2 were poor responders; 3-4 were good responders). Analyses of progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were carried out using the Kaplan-Meier method. Of the forty-six patients for whom tumor DNA was successfully sequenced, 23 were good responders to neoCRT (11 patients with a pathological complete response, i.e. pCR) and the other 23 were poor responders. Good and poor responders were equally likely to have a C/C genotype at rs1800925 (73.9%) as a T/T or C/T genotype (26.1%). There were no differences between the C/C and T/T+C/T genotypes with respect to the ypT0-2 ratio (38.2% vs. 41.7%, P = 1.0), ypN0 nodal status (67.6% vs. 50.0%, P= 0.314), 6-year PFS (67.6% vs. 50%, P=0.274), or 6-year OS (76.5% vs. 66.7%, P=0.441). Thus, the IL13-1112 C/T (rs1800925) polymorphism does not predict responsiveness to neoCRT or prognosis of Chinese Han patients with LARC. PMID:27167201

  8. An internally and externally validated nomogram for predicting the risk of irinotecan-induced severe neutropenia in advanced colorectal cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Ichikawa, W; Uehara, K; Minamimura, K; Tanaka, C; Takii, Y; Miyauchi, H; Sadahiro, S; Fujita, K; Moriwaki, T; Nakamura, M; Takahashi, T; Tsuji, A; Shinozaki, K; Morita, S; Ando, Y; Okutani, Y; Sugihara, M; Sugiyama, T; Ohashi, Y; Sakata, Y

    2015-01-01

    Background: In Asians, the risk of irinotecan-induced severe toxicities is related in part to UGT1A1*6 (UGT, UDP glucuronosyltransferase) and UGT1A1*28, variant alleles that reduce the elimination of SN-38, the active metabolite of irinotecan. We prospectively studied the relation between the UGT1A1 genotype and the safety of irinotecan-based regimens in Japanese patients with advanced colorectal cancer, and then constructed a nomogram for predicting the risk of severe neutropenia in the first treatment cycle. Methods: Safety data were obtained from 1312 patients monitored during the first 3 cycles of irinotecan-based regimen in a prospective observational study. In development of the nomogram, multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to test the associations of candidate factors to severe neutropenia in the first cycle. The final nomogram based on the results of multivariable analysis was constructed and validated internally using a bootstrapping technique and externally in an independent data set (n=350). Results: The UGT1A1 genotype was confirmed to be associated with increased risks of irinotecan-induced grade 3 or 4 neutropenia and diarrhoea. The final nomogram included type of regimen, administered dose of irinotecan, gender, age, UGT1A1 genotype, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, pre-treatment absolute neutrophil count, and total bilirubin level. The model was validated both internally (bootstrap-adjusted concordance index, 0.69) and externally (concordance index, 0.70). Conclusions: Our nomogram can be used before treatment to accurately predict the probability of irinotecan-induced severe neutropenia in the first cycle of therapy. Additional studies should evaluate the effect of nomogram-guided dosing on efficacy in patients receiving irinotecan. PMID:25880011

  9. Recent advances in turbulence prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharya, Atreyee

    2012-08-01

    Turbulence in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (8-14 kilometers in altitude) is a well-known aviation hazard; it is the major cause of injuries and occasional fatalities to passengers and crew members on commercial aircraft. Jet streams, thunderstorms, flow over mountains, and even the passage of other aircraft cause turbulence. However, the lack of precise observational data (which is still mainly from pilots reporting turbulence) and a clear understanding of the processes that cause turbulence make it difficult to accurately forecast aviation-scale turbulence. Hence, upper troposphere and lower stratosphere turbulence forecasting is an area of active research.

  10. The value of forceps biopsy and core needle biopsy in prediction of pathologic complete remission in locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

    PubMed

    Tang, Jing-Hua; An, Xin; Lin, Xi; Gao, Yuan-Hong; Liu, Guo-Chen; Kong, Ling-Heng; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Ding, Pei-Rong

    2015-10-20

    Patients with pathological complete remission (pCR) after treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) have better long-term outcome and may receive conservative treatments in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). The study aimed to evaluate the value of forceps biopsy and core needle biopsy in prediction of pCR in LARC treated with nCRT. In total, 120 patients entered this study. Sixty-one consecutive patients received preoperative forceps biopsy during endoscopic examination. Ex vivo core needle biopsy was performed in resected specimens of another 43 consecutive patients. The accuracy for ex vivo core needle biopsy was significantly higher than forceps biopsy (76.7% vs. 36.1%; p < 0.001). The sensitivity for ex vivo core needle biopsy was significantly lower in good responder (TRG 3) than poor responder (TRG ≤ 2) (52.9% vs. 94.1%; p = 0.017). In vivo core needle biopsy was further performed in 16 patients with good response. Eleven patients had residual cancer cells in final resected specimens, among whom 4 (36.4%) patients were biopsy positive. In conclusion, routine forceps biopsy was of limited value in identifying pCR after nCRT. Although core needle biopsy might further identify a subset of patients with residual cancer cells, the accuracy was not substantially increased in good responders.

  11. Radiation dose to the tongue and velopharynx predicts acoustic-articulatory changes after chemo-IMRT treatment for advanced head and neck cancer.

    PubMed

    Jacobi, Irene; Navran, Arash; van der Molen, Lisette; Heemsbergen, Wilma D; Hilgers, Frans J M; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent changes in speech after C-IMRT treatment are related to mean doses to the tongue and velopharynx (VP). In 34 patients with advanced hypopharyngeal, nasopharyngeal, or oropharyngeal cancer, changes in speech from pretreatment to 10 weeks and 1 year posttreatment were correlated with mean doses to the base of tongue (BOT), oral cavity (OC) and tonsillar fossa/soft palate (VP). Differences in anteroposterior tongue position, dorsoventral degree of tongue to palate or pharynx constriction, grooving, strength, nasality, and laryngeal rise, were assessed by acoustic changes in three speech sounds that depend on a (post-) alveolar closure or narrowing (/t/, /s/, /z/), three with a tongue to palate/pharyngeal narrowing (/l/, /r/, /u/), and in vowel /a/ at comfortable and highest pitch. Acoustically assessed changes in tongue positioning, shape, velopharyngeal constriction, and laryngeal elevation were significantly related to mean doses to the tongue and velopharynx. The mean dose to BOT predicted changes in anteroposterior tongue positioning from pre- to 10-weeks posttreatment. From pretreatment to 1-year, mean doses to BOT, OC, and VP were related to changes in grooving, strength, laryngeal height, nasality, palatalization, and degree of pharyngeal constriction. Changes in speech are related to mean doses to the base of tongue and velopharynx. The outcome indicates that strength, motility, and the balance between agonist and antagonist muscle forces change significantly after radiotherapy.

  12. Ground-Based Cloud and Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observations for the Project: High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for Advancing Climate Prediction, HD(CP)2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirsikko, A.; Ebell, K.; Ulrich, U.; Schween, J. H.; Bohn, B.; Görsdorf, U.; Leinweber, R.; Päschke, E.; Baars, H.; Seifert, P.; Klein Baltink, H.

    2014-12-01

    The German research initiative ''High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction, HD(CP)2'' aims for an improved representation of clouds and precipitation in climate models. Model development and its evaluation require comprehensive observational datasets. A specific work package was established to create uniform and documented observational datasets for the HD(CP)2 data base. Datasets included ground-based remote-sensing (Doppler lidars, ceilometers, microwave radiometers, and cloud radars) and in-situ (meteorological and radiation sensors) measurements. Four supersites (Jülich ObservatorY for Cloud Evolution (JOYCE), Lindenberg Meteorological Observatory - Richard Assmann Observatory (RAO), and Leipzig Aerosol and Cloud Remote Observations System (LACROS) in Germany, and Cabauw experimental site for atmospheric research (Cesar) in the Netherlands) are finalizing the operational procedures to provide quality controlled (and calibrated if possible) remote-sensing and in-situ observations, retrievals on atmospheric boundary layer state (e.g. winds, mixing layer height, humidity and temperature), and cloud macro and micro physical properties with uncertainty estimations or at least quality flags. During the project new processing and retrieval methods were developed if no commonly agreed or satisfying methods were available. Especially, large progress was made concerning uncertainty estimation and automated quality control. Additionally, the data from JOYCE are used in a radiative closure studies under cloudy conditions to evaluate retrievals of cloud properties. The current status of work progress will be presented.

  13. KRAS and BRAF Mutations and PTEN Expression Do Not Predict Efficacy of Cetuximab-Based Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Erben, Philipp; Stroebel, Philipp; Horisberger, Karoline; Popa, Juliana; Bohn, Beatrice; Hanfstein, Benjamin; Kaehler, Georg; Kienle, Peter; Post, Stefan; Wenz, Frederik; Hochhaus, Andreas

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: Mutations in KRAS and BRAF genes as well as the loss of expression of phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) (deleted on chromosome 10) are associated with impaired activity of antibodies directed against epidermal growth factor receptor in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. The predictive and prognostic value of the KRAS and BRAF point mutations as well as PTEN expression in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with cetuximab-based neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy is unknown. Methods and Materials: We have conducted phase I and II trials of the combination of weekly administration of cetuximab and irinotecan and daily doses of capecitabine in conjunction with radiotherapy (45 Gy plus 5.4 Gy) in patients with LARC (stage uT3/4 or uN+). The status of KRAS and BRAF mutations was determined with direct sequencing, and PTEN expression status was determined with immunohistochemistry testing of diagnostic tumor biopsies. Tumor regression was evaluated by using standardized regression grading, and disease-free survival (DFS) was calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: A total of 57 patients were available for analyses. A total of 31.6% of patients carried mutations in the KRAS genes. No BRAF mutations were found, while the loss of PTEN expression was observed in 9.6% of patients. Six patients achieved complete remission, and the 3-year DFS rate was 73%. No correlation was seen between tumor regression or DFS rate and a single marker or a combination of all markers. Conclusions: In the present series, no BRAF mutation was detected. The presence of KRAS mutations and loss of PTEN expression were not associated with impaired response to cetuximab-based chemoradiotherapy and 3-year DFS.

  14. STAT3 polymorphisms may predict an unfavorable response to first-line platinum-based therapy for women with advanced serous epithelial ovarian cancer.

    PubMed

    Permuth-Wey, Jennifer; Fulp, William J; Reid, Brett M; Chen, Zhihua; Georgeades, Christina; Cheng, Jin Q; Magliocco, Anthony; Chen, Dung-Tsa; Lancaster, Johnathan M

    2016-02-01

    Cancer stem cells (CSC) contribute to epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) progression and therapeutic response. We hypothesized that germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CSC-related genes may predict an initial therapeutic response for women newly diagnosed with EOC. A nested case-control design was used to study 361 women with advanced-stage serous EOC treated with surgery followed by first-line platinum-based combination therapy at Moffitt Cancer Center or as part of The Cancer Genome Atlas Study. "Cases" included 102 incomplete responders (IRs) and "controls" included 259 complete clinical responders (CRs) to therapy. Using Illumina genotyping arrays and imputation, DNA samples were evaluated for 5,509 SNPs in 24 ovarian CSC-related genes. We also evaluated the overall significance of each CSC gene using the admixture maximum likelihood (AML) test, and correlated genotype with EOC tumor tissue expression. The strongest SNP-level associations with an IR to therapy were identified for correlated (r(2) > 0.80) SNPs within signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) [odds ratio (OR), 2.24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.32-3.78; p = 0.0027], after adjustment for age, population stratification, grade and residual disease. At the gene level, STAT3 was significantly associated with an IR to therapy (pAML = 0.006). rs1053004, a STAT3 SNP in a putative miRNA-binding site, was associated with STAT3 expression (p = 0.057). This is the first study to identify germline STAT3 variants as independent predictors of an unfavorable therapeutic response for EOC patients. Findings suggest that STAT3 genotype may identify high-risk women likely to respond more favorably to novel therapeutic combinations that include STAT3 inhibitors. PMID:26264211

  15. Pelvic Lymph Node Status Assessed by 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Predicts Low-Risk Group for Distant Recurrence in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer: A Prospective Study

    SciTech Connect

    Kang, Sokbom; Park, Jung-Yeol; Lim, Myung-Chul; Song, Yong-Joong; Park, Se-Hyun; Kim, Seok-Ki; Chung, Dae-Chul; Seo, Sang-Soo; Kim, Joo-Young; Park, Sang-Yoon

    2011-03-01

    Purpose: To develop a prediction model to identify a low-risk group for distant recurrence in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer treated by concurrent chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: Prospectively, 62 patients with locally advanced cervical cancer were recruited as a training cohort. Clinical variables and parameters obtained from positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging were analyzed by logistic regression. For the test set, 54 patients were recruited independently. To identify the low-risk group, negative likelihood ratio (LR) less than 0.2 was set to be a cutoff. Results: Among the training cohort, multivariate logistic analysis revealed that advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage and a high serum squamous cancer cell (SCC) antigen level were significant risk factors (p = 0.015 and 0.025, respectively). Using the two parameters, criteria to determine a low-risk subset for distant recurrence were postulated: (1) FIGO Stage IIB or less and (2) pretreatment SCC < 2.4 (Model A). Positive pelvic node on PET completely predicted all cases with distant recurrence and thus was considered as another prediction model (Model B). In the test cohort, although Model A did not showed diagnostic performance, Model B completely predicted all cases with distant recurrence and showed a sensitivity of 100% with negative LR of 0. Across the training and test cohort (n = 116), the false negative rate was 0 (95% confidence interval 0%-7.6%). Conclusions: Positive pelvic node on PET is a useful marker in prediction of distant recurrence in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer who are treated with concurrent chemoradiation.

  16. Depletion analysis of mixed-oxide fuel pins in light water reactors and the Advanced Test Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Chang, G.S.; Ryskamp, J.M.

    2000-03-01

    An experiment containing weapons-grade mixed-oxide (WG-MOX) fuel has been designed and is being irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). The ability to accurately predict fuel pin performance is an essential requirement for the MOX fuel test assembly design. Detailed radial fission power and temperature profile effects and fission gas release in the fuel pin are a function of the fuel pin's temperature, fission power, and fission product ad actinide concentration profiles. In addition, the burnup-dependent profile analyses in irradiated fuel pins is important for fuel performance analysis to support the potential licensing of the MOX fuel made from WG-plutonium and depleted uranium for use in US reactors. The MCNP Coupling With ORIGEN2 burnup calculation code (MCWO) can analyze the detailed burnup profiles of WG-MOX and reactor-grade mixed-oxide (RG-MOX) fuel pins. The validated code MCWO can provide the best-estimate neutronic characteristics of fuel burnup performance analysis. Applying this capability with a new minicell method allows calculation of detailed nuclide concentration and power distributions within the MOX pins as a function of burnup. This methodology was applied to MOX fuel in a commercial pressurized water reactor and in an experiment currently being irradiated in the ATR. The prediction of nuclide concentration profiles and power distributions in irradiated MOX plus via this new methodology can provide insights into MOX fuel performance.

  17. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1991-01-01

    The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

  18. Earth Observing System/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (EOS/AMSU-A): Reliability prediction report for module A1 (channels 3 through 15) and module A2 (channels 1 and 2)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geimer, W.

    1995-01-01

    This report documents the final reliability prediction performed on the Earth Observing System/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (EOS/AMSU-A). The A1 Module contains Channels 3 through 15, and is referred to herein as 'EOS/AMSU-A1'. The A2 Module contains Channels 1 and 2, and is referred herein as 'EOS/AMSU-A2'. The 'specified' figures were obtained from Aerojet Reports 8897-1 and 9116-1. The predicted reliability figure for the EOS/AMSU-A1 meets the specified value and provides a Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of 74,390 hours. The predicted reliability figure for the EOS/AMSU-A2 meets the specified value and provides a MTBF of 193,110 hours.

  19. Predictions of the Impacts of Future Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Development on Regional Ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, A.; Adams, P. J.; Robinson, A. L.

    2012-12-01

    Recent discovery of shale gas reserves, combined with advances in drilling and fracturing technology, are leading to extensive development of natural gas in the Marcellus Shale formation which underlies parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and New York. To assess the impacts of this development on regional air quality, we have constructed a VOC, NOx and PM2.5 emissions inventory for the development and production of gas from the Marcellus formation. In 2020, we estimate that Marcellus activities will contribute about 12% to both regional NOx and VOC emissions. These numbers were obtained as a best estimate (mean) from a distribution obtained through several Monte Carlo runs. We speciated these emissions for use in a 3-D chemical transport model (PMCAMx) to simulate their effects on regional ozone. The projected Marcellus emissions for 2020 were added to a 2007 base inventory developed from the NEI. We have performed multiple simulations to investigate the effects of Marcellus development on regional air quality. The model predicts significant ozone changes in the Marcellus region with a uniform increase of few ppb across a wide region of the Northeast. Sensitivity studies are being performed to investigate the effects of emissions controls and sensitivity to VOC and NOx emissions.

  20. A survey of factors contributing to accurate theoretical predictions of atomization energies and molecular structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feller, David; Peterson, Kirk A.; Dixon, David A.

    2008-11-01

    High level electronic structure predictions of thermochemical properties and molecular structure are capable of accuracy rivaling the very best experimental measurements as a result of rapid advances in hardware, software, and methodology. Despite the progress, real world limitations require practical approaches designed for handling general chemical systems that rely on composite strategies in which a single, intractable calculation is replaced by a series of smaller calculations. As typically implemented, these approaches produce a final, or "best," estimate that is constructed from one major component, fine-tuned by multiple corrections that are assumed to be additive. Though individually much smaller than the original, unmanageable computational problem, these corrections are nonetheless extremely costly. This study presents a survey of the widely varying magnitude of the most important components contributing to the atomization energies and structures of 106 small molecules. It combines large Gaussian basis sets and coupled cluster theory up to quadruple excitations for all systems. In selected cases, the effects of quintuple excitations and/or full configuration interaction were also considered. The availability of reliable experimental data for most of the molecules permits an expanded statistical analysis of the accuracy of the approach. In cases where reliable experimental information is currently unavailable, the present results are expected to provide some of the most accurate benchmark values available.

  1. Genetic variants of CHRNA5-A3 and CHRNB3-A6 predict survival of patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yang; Peng, Xiaonu; Zhu, Lijun; Hu, Likuan; Song, Yipeng

    2016-01-01

    Nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) play a key role in carcinogenesis and progression of lung cancer; and polymorphisms in CHRNA5-A3 and CHRNB3-A6, two gene clusters encoding nAChR subunits, have been associated with lung cancer risk. In this study, we investigated whether variants in the two gene clusters were associated with prognosis of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). A total of 165 stage IIIB–IV NSCLC patients were enrolled in this study. Three polymorphisms (rs667282 and rs3743073 in CHRNA5-A3 and rs13280604 in CHRNB3-A6) were genotyped using the TaqMan method. Overall survival (OS) was estimated using the log-rank test and the Cox models. Our results showed that patients with CHRNA5-A3 rs667282 TT or TC genotypes had a significantly shorter OS than those carrying the CC genotype (Log-rank, P = 0.043). Furthermore, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that rs667282 TT/TC genotypes are significantly associated with increased risk of overall deaths (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.7). However, the similar results were not observed for other two polymorphisms. Furthermore, no evident association was found between these variants and clinicopathologic features of advanced NSCLC. Our present study suggested that rs667282 in CHRNA5-A3 may modify the prognosis of patients with advanced NSCLC. PMID:27050379

  2. Steam-explosion safety considerations for the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Taleyarkhan, R.

    1990-02-01

    This report provides a perspective on steam-explosion safety and design issues for the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) reactor being designed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. A historical background along with a description of experiments and analytical work performed to date has been provided. Preliminary analyses (for the ANS) have been conducted to evaluate steam-explosion pressure- pulse loadings, the effects of reactor coolant system (RCS) overpressurization, and slug energetics. The method used for pressure-pulse magnitude evaluation was benchmarked with previous calculations, an aluminum-water steam-explosion experiment, and test reactor steam explosion data with good agreement. Predicted pressure-pulse magnitudes evaluated were found to be several orders of magnitude lower than corresponding values evaluated by correlating available energies with shock-wave pressures from equivalent chemical detonations. The preliminary best estimate, as well as conservative estimates for RCS volume-pressurization failure and slug energetics for RCS volume-pressurization failure and slug energetics, indicated that (1) steam explosions in the ANS have significant damage potential, and (2) steam-explosion issues must be considered during the design phase of the ANS Project. Recommendations are made for efficiently addressing this important safety and design issue. 38 refs., 17 figs., 11 tabs.

  3. Optimal tumor shrinkage predicts long-term outcome in advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with target therapy: Result from 3 clinical trials of advanced NSCLC by 1 institution.

    PubMed

    He, Xiaobo; Zhang, Yang; Ma, Yuxiang; Zhou, Ting; Zhang, Jianwei; Hong, Shaodong; Sheng, Jin; Zhang, Zhonghan; Yang, Yunpeng; Huang, Yan; Zhang, Li; Zhao, Hongyun

    2016-08-01

    Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are used as standard therapies for advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with EGFR mutation positive. Because these targeted therapies could cause tumor necrosis and shrinkage, the purpose of the study is to search for a value of optimal tumor shrinkage as an appropriate indicator of outcome for advanced NSCLC.A total of 88 NSCLC enrollees of 3 clinical trials (IRESSA registration clinical trial, TRUST study and ZD6474 study), who received Gefitinib (250 mg, QD), Erlotinib (150 mg, QD), and ZD6474 (100 mg, QD), respectively, during December 2003 and October 2007, were retrospectively analyzed. The response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST) were used to identify responders, who had complete response (CR) or partial responses (PR) and nonresponders who had stable disease (SD) or progressive disease (PD). Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was used to find the optimal tumor shrinkage as an indicator for tumor therapeutic outcome. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to compare the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) between responders and nonresponders stratified based on radiologic criteria.Among the 88 NSCLC patients, 26 were responders and 62 were nonresponders based on RECIST 1.0. ROC indicated that 8.32% tumor diameter shrinkage in the sum of the longest tumor diameter (SLD) was the cutoff point of tumor shrinkage outcomes, resulting in 46 responders (≤8.32%) and 42 nonresponders (≥8.32%). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that (1) the responders (≤8.32%) and nonresponders (≥ -8.32%) were significantly different in median PFS (13.40 vs 1.17 months, P < 0.001) and OS (19.80 vs 7.90 months, P < 0.001) and (2) -8.32% in SLD could be used as the optimal threshold for PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 8.11, 95% CI, 3.75 to 17.51, P < 0.001) and OS (HR, 2.36, 95

  4. Prognostic models to predict survival in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with first-line chemo- or targeted therapy

    PubMed Central

    Berardi, Rossana; Rinaldi, Silvia; Santoni, Matteo; Newsom-Davis, Thomas; Tiberi, Michela; Morgese, Francesca; Caramanti, Miriam; Savini, Agnese; Ferrini, Consuelo; Torniai, Mariangela; Fiordoliva, Ilaria; Bower, Marc; Cascinu, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    Background We aimed to assess the prognostic role of neutrophilia, lymphocytopenia and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and to design models to define the prognosis of patients receiving first-line chemo- or targeted therapy for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Materials and Methods We retrospectively analysed 401 consecutive patients with advanced NSCLC treated with first line chemo- or targeted therapy. Patients were stratified into two groups with pre-treatment NLR ≥ 3.7 (Group A) vs. < 3.7 (Group B). The best NLR cut-off was identified by ROC curve analysis. Results At baseline 264 patients had NLR≥3.7 (Group A), whilst 137 had lower NLR (Group B). Median OS was 10.8 months and 19.4 months in the two groups (p < 0.001), while median PFS was 3.6 months and 5.6 months, respectively (p = 0.012). At multivariate analysis, ECOG-PS≥2, stage IV cancer, non-adenocarcinoma histology, EGFR wild-type status and NLR were predictors of worse OS. Stage IV cancer, wild type EGFR status and NLR≥3.7 were independent prognostic factors for worse PFS. Patients were stratified according to the presence of 0-1 prognostic factors (8%), 2-3 factors (73%) and 4-5 factors (19%) and median OS in these groups was 33.7 months, 14.6 months and 6.6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). Similarly, patients were stratified for PFS based on the presence of 0-1 prognostic factor (15%), 2 factors (41%) and 3 factors (44%). The median PFS was 8.3 months, 4.6 months and 3.3 months respectively (p < 0.001). Conclusion Pre-treatment NLR is an independent prognostic factor for patients with advanced NSCLC treated with first-line therapies. PMID:27029035

  5. Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase C677T polymorphism predicts response and time to progression to gemcitabine-based chemotherapy for advanced non-small cell lung cancer in a Chinese Han population*

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Wei; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Yi-ping; Kou, Jun-yan; Hong, Dan; Su, Dan; Mao, Wei-min; Yu, Xin-min; Xie, Fa-jun; Wang, Xiao-jian

    2013-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T excision repair cross-complementation group 1 (ERCC1) genetic polymorphisms and the clinical efficacy of gemcitabine-based chemotherapy in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods: A total of 135 chemonaive patients with unresectable advanced NSCLC were treated with gemcitabine/platinum regimens. The polymorphisms of MTHFR C677T, ERCC1 C8092A, and ERCC1 C118T were genotyped using the TaqMan methods. Results: The overall response rate was 28.9%. Patients with MTHFR CC genotype had a higher rate of objective response than patients with variant genotype (TT or CT) (41.2% versus 19.1%, P=0.01). Median time to progression (TTP) of patients with MTHFR CC genotype was longer than that of patients with variant genotype (7.6 months versus 5.0 months, P=0.003). No significant associations were obtained between ERCC1 C118T and C8092A polymorphisms and both response and survival. Conclusions: Our data suggest the value of MTHFR C677T polymorphism as a possible predictive marker of response and TTP in advanced NSCLC patients treated with gemcitabine/platinum. PMID:23463763

  6. Karnofsky Performance Status and Lactate Dehydrogenase Predict the Benefit of Palliative Whole-Brain Irradiation in Patients With Advanced Intra- and Extracranial Metastases From Malignant Melanoma

    SciTech Connect

    Partl, Richard; Richtig, Erika; Avian, Alexander; Berghold, Andrea; Kapp, Karin S.

    2013-03-01

    Purpose: To determine prognostic factors that allow the selection of melanoma patients with advanced intra- and extracerebral metastatic disease for palliative whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) or best supportive care. Methods and Materials: This was a retrospective study of 87 patients who underwent palliative WBRT between 1988 and 2009 for progressive or multiple cerebral metastases at presentation. Uni- and multivariate analysis took into account the following patient- and tumor-associated factors: gender and age, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), neurologic symptoms, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, number of intracranial metastases, previous resection or stereotactic radiosurgery of brain metastases, number of extracranial metastasis sites, and local recurrences as well as regional lymph node metastases at the time of WBRT. Results: In univariate analysis, KPS, LDH, number of intracranial metastases, and neurologic symptoms had a significant influence on overall survival. In multivariate survival analysis, KPS and LDH remained as significant prognostic factors, with hazard ratios of 3.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-6.5) and 2.8 (95% CI 1.6-4.9), respectively. Patients with KPS ≥70 and LDH ≤240 U/L had a median survival of 191 days; patients with KPS ≥70 and LDH >240 U/L, 96 days; patients with KPS <70 and LDH ≤240 U/L, 47 days; and patients with KPS <70 and LDH >240 U/L, only 34 days. Conclusions: Karnofsky performance status and serum LDH values indicate whether patients with advanced intra- and extracranial tumor manifestations are candidates for palliative WBRT or best supportive care.

  7. The Value of 18F-FDG PET/CT Imaging Combined With Pretherapeutic Ki67 for Early Prediction of Pathologic Response After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced Breast Cancer.

    PubMed

    Luo, Jurui; Zhou, Zhirui; Yang, Zhaozhi; Chen, Xingxing; Cheng, Jinyi; Shao, Zhimin; Guo, Xiaomao; Tuan, Jeffrey; Fu, Xiaolong; Yu, Xiaoli

    2016-02-01

    To evaluate the value of F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography/computed tomography (F-FDG PET/CT) and pretherapeutic Ki67 in predicting pathologic response in locally advanced breast cancer (LABC) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC).As a training set, total 301 LABC patients treated with NAC were retrospectively analyzed to evaluate the potential predictive value of pretherapeutic Ki67 for pathologic complete response (pCR) after NAC. Another 60 LABC patients were prospectively included as a validation set to evaluate the value of Ki67 combined PET/CT as pCR predictors. Ki67 was assessed in pretherapy core needle biopsy specimens and PET/CT scans were performed at baseline (before initiating NAC), after the 2nd, and 4th cycle of NAC. Maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) and its changes relative to baseline (ΔSUVmax%) were used as parameters of PEC/CT.In the training set, Ki67 was a predictor of pCR to NAC, with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.624 (P = 0.003) in receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. In the validation set, Ki67 alone did not show significant value in predicting pCR in the validation set. ΔSUVmax% after then 2nd or 4th course are predictors of pCR to NAC with the AUC of 0.774 (P = 0.002) and 0.791 (P = 0.002), respectively. When combined with ΔSUVmax% after the 2nd and 4th course NAC, Ki67 increased the value of ΔSUVmax% in predicting pCR with the AUC of 0.824 (P = 0.001). Baseline SUVmax and after 2nd, 4th course NAC had no predictive value for pCR, but SUVmax after the 2nd and 4th course showed remarkable predictive value for nonpathologic response (Grade 1 in Miller-Payne Grading System) with the AUC of 0.898 (P = 0.0001) and 0.801 (P = 0.003).Both PET/CT and Ki67 can predict pCR to NAC in LABC patients in the early phases of treatment. PET/CT combined Ki67 is a better pCR predictor for response to NAC. This helps the physician to predict the probability of pCR, and facilitates the

  8. Predictive modeling of complications.

    PubMed

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  9. Predictive value of APAF-1 and COX-2 expression in pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for patients with locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Xi, Shaoyan; Zhang, Tian; Dong, Jun; Cai, Muyan; Wang, Chengtao; Zhang, Huizhong; Zhou, Tongchong; Gao, Yuanhong; Wen, Bixiu

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To investigate predictive value of APAF-1 and COX-2 expression in pathologic complete response (pCR) for patients with rectal adenocarcinoma (RAC) who were treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (neo-CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision (TME). Materials and Methods Immunohistochemistry assay was used to detect expression of APAF-1 and COX-2 in paraffin-wax embedded tissues obtained before neo-CRT for patients with RAC. A 5-point tumor-regression grade (TRG) based on the ratio of residual tumor to fibrosis according to Dworak's scoring system was used to assess neo-CRT response. The relationship between expression of APAF-1 and COX-2 genes and pCR was explored. Results pCR (TRG4) was observed in 23 patients (28.0%). pCR were more likely to be achieved for those with APAF-1 over-expression or lower expression of COX-2. pCR rate in patients with combination of high APAF-1 and low COX-2 expression was 56.0%, significantly higher than those with other combination of APAF1 and COX-2 expression. Multivariate analysis showed that over-expression of APAF-1 and suppressed expression of COX-2 were independent predictive factors for pCR. Conclusion Immunohistochemical evaluation of APAF-1 and COX-2 expression on pretreatment specimen may be used to predict pCR to neo-CRT in patients with RAC. The potential of the markers in monitoring pCR patient merits further investigation. PMID:27153549

  10. Quantification of dynamic contrast-enhanced ultrasound in HCC: prediction of response to a new combination therapy of sorafenib and panobinostat in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Knieling, Ferdinand; Waldner, Maximilian J; Goertz, Ruediger S; Strobel, Deike

    2012-01-01

    Here, we report the case of a patient, who showed an antitumour response to a new combination therapy of sorafenib and the histon deacetylase inhibitor panobinostat (LBH-589). D-CEUS (Dynamic contrast-enhanced ultrasonography) was able to predict response to the new therapy regime and may be an interesting tool in the early evaluation of response to therapy. It might be especially useful to differentiate between responders and non-responders of new-targeted pharmaceuticals like multikinase inhibitors in hepatocellular carcinomas. PMID:23257272

  11. Predictions of human tolerance to cold water immersion while wearing advanced integrated garment ensembles with and without survival rafts or exogenous heating. Final report, April-September 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Shender, B.S.; Kaufman, J.

    1993-12-30

    US Navy interest in garments providing integrated protection against chemical agents, hyperthermia, hypobaria, and hypothermia has led to fabrication of prototype multi-purpose garments. As part of the development process, these garments need to be tested for the protection they provide against these hazards. Mathematical modeling can be used to simulate the thermal protection provided by the various garment designs and minimize laboratory testing. It can also be used to establish guidelines on the amount of clothing insulation required to withstand exposures of various durations under conditions of thermal stress. This paper reports on the theoretical evaluation of hypothermia protection provided by various tactical aircrew garments during simulated head-out cold water immersion (CWI) using the Texas Human Thermal Model (10) (referred to THTM, below), as modified by the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division THTM for use with low CLO values (7). THTM can aid in clothing design by allowing specification of insulation values for up to fifteen body segments. This is an improvement over earlier work (8), in which researchers based their conclusions on an overall mean THTM value for garments. Also included in this paper is an algorithm to predict the effects of using open and closed survival rafts while wearing a CWU-62/P on rectal and mean skin temperature during survival scenarios. Lastly, THTM was used to predict the amount of exogenous heating required to survive 6 hour CWI while wearing CWU-27/P and CWU-62/P garment ensembles.

  12. Predictions of human tolerance to cold water immersion while wearning advanced integrated garment ensembles with and without survival rafts or exogenous heating. Final report, April-September 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Shender, B.S.; Kaufman, J.

    1993-12-30

    US Navy interest in garments providing integrated protection against chemical agents, hyperthermia, hypobaria, and hypothermia has led to fabrication of prototype multi-purpose garments. As part of the development process, these garments need to be tested for the protection they provide against these hazards. Mathematical modeling can be used to simulate the thermal protection provided by the various garment designs and minimize laboratory testing. It can also be used to establish guidelines on the amount of clothing insulation required to withstand exposures of various durations under conditions of thermal stress. This paper reports on the theoretical evaluation of hypothermia protection provided by various tactical aircrew garments during simulated head-out cold water immersion (CWI) using the Texas Human Thermal Model (10) (referred to THTM, below), as modified by the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division Warminster for use with low CLO values (7). THTM can aid in clothing design by allowing specification of insulation values for up to fifteen body segments. This is an improvement over earlier work (8), in which researchers based their conclusions on an overall mean CLO value for garments. Also included in this paper is an algorithm to predict the effects of using open and closed survival rafts while wearing a CWU-62/P on rectal and mean skin temperature during survival scenarios. Lastly, THTM was used to predict the amount of exogenous heating required to survive 6 hour CWI while wearing CWU-27YP and CWU-62/P garment ensembles.

  13. A Significant Statistical Advancement on the Predictive Values of ERCC1 Polymorphisms for Clinical Outcomes of Platinum-Based Chemotherapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: An Updated Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Han, Yali; Liu, Jie; Sun, Meili; Zhang, Zongpu; Liu, Chuanyong; Sun, Yuping

    2016-01-01

    Background. There is no definitive conclusion so far on the predictive values of ERCC1 polymorphisms for clinical outcomes of platinum-based chemotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We updated this meta-analysis with an expectation to obtain some statistical advancement on this issue. Methods. Relevant studies were identified by searching MEDLINE, EMBASE databases from inception to April 2015. Primary outcomes included objective response rate (ORR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). All analyses were performed using the Review Manager version 5.3 and the Stata version 12.0. Results. A total of 33 studies including 5373 patients were identified. ERCC1 C118T and C8092A could predict both ORR and OS for platinum-based chemotherapy in Asian NSCLC patients (CT + TT versus CC, ORR: OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.67–0.94; OS: HR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.01–1.53) (CA + AA versus CC, ORR: OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.60–0.96; OS: HR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.06–1.75). Conclusions. Current evidence strongly indicated the prospect of ERCC1 C118T and C8092A as predictive biomarkers for platinum-based chemotherapy in Asian NSCLC patients. However, the results should be interpreted with caution and large prospective studies are still required to further investigate these findings. PMID:27057082

  14. Advanced [18F]FDG and [11C]flumazenil PET analysis for individual outcome prediction after temporal lobe epilepsy surgery for hippocampal sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Yankam Njiwa, J.; Gray, K.R.; Costes, N.; Mauguiere, F.; Ryvlin, P.; Hammers, A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose We have previously shown that an imaging marker, increased periventricular [11C]flumazenil ([11C]FMZ) binding, is associated with failure to become seizure free (SF) after surgery for temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) with hippocampal sclerosis (HS). Here, we investigated whether increased preoperative periventricular white matter (WM) signal can be detected on clinical [18F]FDG-PET images. We then explored the potential of periventricular FDG WM increases, as well as whole-brain [11C]FMZ and [18F]FDG images analysed with random forest classifiers, for predicting surgery outcome. Methods Sixteen patients with MRI-defined HS had preoperative [18F]FDG and [11C]FMZ-PET. Fifty controls had [18F]FDG-PET (30), [11C]FMZ-PET (41), or both (21). Periventricular WM signal was analysed using Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM8), and whole-brain image classification was performed using random forests implemented in R (http://www.r-project.org). Surgery outcome was predicted at the group and individual levels. Results At the group level, non-seizure free (NSF) versus SF patients had periventricular increases with both tracers. Against controls, NSF patients showed more prominent periventricular [11C]FMZ and [18F]FDG signal increases than SF patients. All differences were more marked for [11C]FMZ. For individuals, periventricular WM signal increases were seen at optimized thresholds in 5/8 NSF patients for both tracers. For SF patients, 1/8 showed periventricular signal increases for [11C]FMZ, and 4/8 for [18F]FDG. Hence, [18F]FDG had relatively poor sensitivity and specificity. Random forest classification accurately identified 7/8 SF and 7/8 NSF patients using [11C]FMZ images, but only 4/8 SF and 6/8 NSF patients with [18F]FDG. Conclusion This study extends the association between periventricular WM increases and NSF outcome to clinical [18F]FDG-PET, but only at the group level. Whole-brain random forest classification increases [11C]FMZ-PET's performance for predicting

  15. Use of prediction equations to determine the accuracy of whole-body fat and fat-free mass and appendicular skeletal muscle mass measurements from a single abdominal image using computed tomography in advanced cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Kilgour, Robert D; Cardiff, Katrina; Rosenthall, Leonard; Lucar, Enriqueta; Trutschnigg, Barbara; Vigano, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Measurements of body composition using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and single abdominal images from computed tomography (CT) in advanced cancer patients (ACP) have important diagnostic and prognostic value. The question arises as to whether CT scans can serve as surrogates for DXA in terms of whole-body fat-free mass (FFM), whole-body fat mass (FM), and appendicular skeletal muscle (ASM) mass. Predictive equations to estimate body composition for ACP from CT images have been proposed (Mourtzakis et al. 2008; Appl. Physiol. Nutr. Metabol. 33(5): 997-1006); however, these equations have yet to be validated in an independent cohort of ACP. Thus, this study evaluated the accuracy of these equations in estimating FFM, FM, and ASM mass using CT images at the level of the third lumbar vertebrae and compared these values with DXA measurements. FFM, FM, and ASM mass were estimated from the prediction equations proposed by Mourtzakis and colleagues (2008) using single abdominal CT images from 43 ACP and were compared with whole-body DXA scans using Spearman correlations and Bland-Altman analyses. Despite a moderate to high correlation between the actual (DXA) and predicted (CT) values for FM (rho = 0.93; p ≤ 0.001), FFM (rho = 0.78; p ≤ 0.001), and ASM mass (rho = 0.70; p ≤ 0.001), Bland-Altman analyses revealed large range-of-agreement differences between the 2 methods (29.39 kg for FFM, 15.47 kg for FM, and 3.99 kg for ASM mass). Based on the magnitude of these differences, we concluded that prediction equations using single abdominal CT images have poor accuracy, cannot be considered as surrogates for DXA, and may have limited clinical utility. PMID:26695688

  16. HER-2, p53, p21 and hormonal receptors proteins expression as predictive factors of response and prognosis in locally advanced breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant docetaxel plus epirubicin combination

    PubMed Central

    Tiezzi, Daniel G; Andrade, Jurandyr M; Ribeiro-Silva, Alfredo; Zola, Fábio E; Marana, Heitor RC; Tiezzi, Marcelo G

    2007-01-01

    Background Neoadjuvant chemotherapy has been considered the standard care in locally advanced breast cancer. However, about 20% of the patients do not benefit from this clinical treatment and, predictive factors of response were not defined yet. This study was designed to evaluate the importance of biological markers to predict response and prognosis in stage II and III breast cancer patients treated with taxane and anthracycline combination as neoadjuvant setting. Methods Sixty patients received preoperative docetaxel (75 mg/m2) in combination with epirubicin (50 mg/m2) in i.v. infusion in D1 every 3 weeks after incisional biopsy. They received adjuvant chemotherapy with CMF or FEC, attaining axillary status following definitive breast surgery. Clinical and pathologic response rates were measured after preoperative therapy. We evaluated the response rate to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and the prognostic significance of clinicopathological and immunohistochemical parameters (ER, PR, p51, p21 and HER-2 protein expression). The median patient age was 50.5 years with a median follow up time 48 months after the time of diagnosis. Results Preoperative treatment achieved clinical response in 76.6% of patients and complete pathologic response in 5%. The clinical, pathological and immunohistochemical parameters were not able to predict response to therapy and, only HER2 protein overexpression was associated with a decrease in disease free and overall survival (P = 0.0007 and P = 0.003) as shown by multivariate analysis. Conclusion Immunohistochemical phenotypes were not able to predict response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Clinical response is inversely correlated with a risk of death in patients submitted to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and HER2 overexpression is the major prognostic factor in stage II and III breast cancer patients treated with a neoadjuvant docetaxel and epirubicin combination. PMID:17324279

  17. Total Soluble and Endogenous Secretory Receptor for Advanced Glycation End Products as Predictive Biomarkers of Coronary Heart Disease Risk in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Colhoun, Helen M.; Betteridge, D. John; Durrington, Paul; Hitman, Graham; Neil, Andrew; Livingstone, Shona; Charlton-Menys, Valentine; Bao, Weihang; DeMicco, David A.; Preston, Gregory M.; Deshmukh, Harshal; Tan, Kathryn; Fuller, John H.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Circulating levels of soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) likely comprise both a secreted isoform (esRAGE) and wild-type RAGE cleaved from the cell membrane. Both sRAGE and esRAGE have been proposed as biomarkers of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but prospective data are limited. We examined the relationship of sRAGE and esRAGE to incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in type 2 diabetic patients followed for 3.9 years in a trial of atorvastatin: the Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study (CARDS). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We used a nested case-control design sampling all incident cases of CVD with available plasma and randomly selecting three control subjects, who were free of CVD throughout follow-up, per case. Analysis was by Cox regression with adjustment for treatment allocation and relevant covariates. RESULTS sRAGE and esRAGE were strongly correlated (ρ = 0.88) and were both higher in those with lower BMI (P < 0.001), higher adiponectin (P < 0.001), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (P = 0.009), and white ethnicity (P < 0.001). Both sRAGE and esRAGE were associated with incident CHD events, independently of treatment allocation and the above factors; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.74 (95% CI 1.25–2.41; P = 0.002) for a doubling of the sRAGE level; HR = 1.45 (1.11–1.89; P = 0.006) for a doubling of the esRAGE level. There was no significant association with stroke; HR for sRAGE = 0.66 (0.38–1.14). Atorvastatin, 10 mg daily, did not alter sRAGE. CONCLUSIONS Higher levels of sRAGE and esRAGE are associated with incident CHD but not stroke in type 2 diabetes. PMID:21771973

  18. Predictive and Prognostic Value of Ribonucleotide Reductase Regulatory Subunit M1 and Excision Repair Cross-Complementation Group 1 in Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma (UC) Treated with First-Line Gemcitabine Plus Platinum Combination Chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Kim, Miso; Ku, Ja Hyeon; Kwak, Cheol; Kim, Hyeon Hoe; Lee, Eunsik; Keam, Bhumsuk; Kim, Tae Min; Heo, Dae Seog; Lee, Se-Hoon; Moon, Kyung Chul

    2015-01-01

    Preclinical and clinical studies have suggested that expression of ribonucleotide reductase regulatory subunit M1 (RRM1) and excision repair cross-complementation group 1 (ERCC1) is associated with resistance to gemcitabine and cisplatin, respectively. We evaluated the significance of RRM1 and ERCC1 expression to predict tumor response to gemcitabine plus platinum chemotherapy (GP) and survival in advanced UC. We retrospectively collected tumor samples and reviewed clinical data of 53 patients with unresectable or metastatic UC, who were treated with first-line GP. RRM1 and ERCC1 expression were measured by immunohistochemistry. Among 53 patients, 12 (22.6%) and 26 (49.1%) patients had tumors that demonstrated a high expression for RRM1 and ERCC1, respectively. Twenty-nine (70.7%) of 41 patients with low RRM1 expression achieved a clinical response (complete + partial responses), but only 3 (25.0%) of 12 patients with high RRM1 expression achieved a clinical response after GP (P=0.007). Nineteen (70.4%) of 27 patients with low ERCC1 expression achieved a clinical response, while 13 (50.0%) of 26 patients with high ERCC1 expression achieved a clinical response (P=0.130). High RRM1 expression was associated with shorter progression free survival and overall survival (PFS P=0.006, OS P=0.006). Multivariate analysis confirmed that patients with high RRM1 expression had a significantly greater risk of progression and death than those with low RRM1 expression. ERCC1 status was not a significant predictor for PFS and OS. RRM1 expression was predictive and prognostic of clinical outcome in advanced UC treated with gemcitabine plus platinum combination chemotherapy.

  19. An Application of Advanced Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Methods to Assess Potential Impacts of the 2015 - 2016 ENSO Event over the Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, W. P.; Lamb, K. W.; Piechota, T. C.; Lakshmi, V.; Santos, N. I.; Tootle, G. A.; Kalra, A.; Fayne, J.

    2015-12-01

    Water resource managers throughout the Western United States have struggled with persistent and severe drought since the early 2000s. In the Colorado River Basin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) provides forecasts of water supply conditions to resource managers throughout the basin using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) methods that are largely driven by historical observations of temperature and precipitation. Currently, the CBRFC does not have a way to incorporate information from climatic teleconnections such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO describes warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that typically correlate with cool and wet winter precipitation events in California and the Lower Colorado River Basin during an El Niño event. Past research indicates the potential to identify analog ENSO events to evaluate the impact to reservoir storage in the Colorado River Basin. Current forecasts indicate the potential for one of the strongest El Niño events on record this winter. In this study, information regarding the upcoming ENSO event is used to inform water supply forecasts over the Upper Colorado River Basin. These forecasts are then compared to traditionally derived water supply forecast in an attempt to evaluate the possible impact of the El Niño event to water supply over the Colorado River Basin.

  20. Circulating miR-22, miR-24 and miR-34a as novel predictive biomarkers to pemetrexed-based chemotherapy in advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Franchina, Tindara; Amodeo, Valeria; Bronte, Giuseppe; Savio, Giuseppina; Ricciardi, Giuseppina R R; Picciotto, Maria; Russo, Antonio; Giordano, Antonio; Adamo, Vincenzo

    2014-01-01

    Pemetrexed has been widely used in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The clinical relevance of polymorphisms of folate pathway genes for pemetrexed metabolism have not been fully elucidated yet. The aim of this study was to evaluate the expression levels of circulating miR-22, miR-24, and miR-34a, possibly involved in folate pathway, in NSCLC patients treated with pemetrexed compared with healthy controls and to investigate their impact on patient clinical outcomes. A total of 22 consecutive patients with advanced NSCLC, treated with pemetrexed-based chemotherapy and 27 age and sex matched healthy controls were included in this preliminary analysis. miR-22, miR-24, and miR-34a targets were identified by TargetScan 6.2 algorithm, validating the involvement of these microRNAs in folate pathway. MicroRNAs were isolated from whole blood and extracted with miRNAeasy Mini Kit (Qiagen). miRNA profiling was performed using Real-Time PCR. SPSS 17 was used to data analysis. miR-22, miR-24, and miR-34a were found upregulated (P<0.05) in NSCLC patients versus healthy controls. Higher expression levels were recorded for miR-34a. Nevertheless, significantly higher miR-22 expression was observed in patients developing progressive disease (P=0.03). No significant associations with clinical outcome were recorded for miR-24 and miR-34a. Albeit preliminary, these data support the involvement of miR-22, miR-24, and miR-34a in advanced NSCLC. The correlation between high expression of miR-22 in whole blood and the lack of response in pemetrexed treated NSCLC patients indicates that miR-22 could represent a novel predictive biomarker for pemetrexed-based treatment.

  1. Successful Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierrehumbert, R.

    2012-12-01

    reasons I shall discuss. During the dark ages of global change, between Arrhenius and Plass (punctuated by Callendar), work on planetary climate had not in fact ground to a halt, but developed vigorously in the astronomical community. This culminated in major discoveries about the atmospheres of Mars and Venus, notably Sagan's prediction that Venus has an extremely high surface temperature owing to an atmosphere extremely rich in greenhouse gases. The fertile interplay between astrophysics and terrestrial climate science continues in the current dawning era of exoplanet discovery. Early modeling work, notably by Manabe and co-workers, identified a number of spatial patterns of global change that were ultimately realized in data. These include: amplification of warming over land and in the Arctic, and the conjunction of stratospheric cooling with tropospheric warming. Additional examples I will discuss include the problem of tropical temperatures at the Last Glacial Maximum, water vapor feedback, Hansen's prediction of response to the Pinatubo eruption, and the prediction that ocean heat uptake would delay warming. While not all aspects of climate change were anticipated in advance (notably the interruption of warming around 1950-1970), examples of truly failed predictions are rare, and are overwhelmingly found among theories such as those of Angstrom or Lindzen which purport to show little sensitivity of climate to CO2.

  2. Advanced stellarators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlüter, Arnulf

    1983-03-01

    Toroidal confinement of a plasma by an external magnetic field is not compatible with axisymmetry, in contrast to confinement by the pinch effect of induced electric currents as in a tokomak or by the reversed field pinch configuration. The existence of magnetic surfaces throughout the region in which grad p ≠ 0 is therefore not guaranteed in such configurations, though it is necessary for MHD-equilibrium when the lines of force possess a finite twist (or "rotational transform"). These twisted equilibria are called stellarators. The other type of external confinement requires all lines of force to be closed upon themselves and p to be function of the well defined quantity Q = φ d l/ B only. The resulting "bumpy" tori are sometimes also referred to as being M + S like. By discussing specific examples it is shown that stellarator configurations exist which retain as much as possible the properties of M + S like configurations, combine these with the magnetic well, and with an approximation to the isodynamic requirement of D. Palumbo. These so-called Advanced Stellarators shown an improvement in predicted particle confinement and beta-limit compared to the classical stellarators. They can also be viewed as forming a system of linked stabilized mirrors of small mirror ratio. These fields can be produced by modular coils. A prototype of such a configuration is being designed by the stellarator division of IPP under the name of Wendelstein VII-AS. Expected physical data and technical details of W VII-AS are given.

  3. Geostatistics and remote sensing using NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery as predictive tools in tick distribution and habitat suitability estimations for Boophilus microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) in South America. National Oceanographic and Atmosphere Administration-Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer.

    PubMed

    Estrada-Peña, A

    1999-02-01

    Remote sensing based on NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmosphere Administration) satellite imagery was used, together with geostatistics (cokriging) to model the correlation between the temperature and vegetation variables and the distribution of the cattle tick, Boophilus microplus (Canestrini), in the Neotropical region. The results were used to map the B. microplus habitat suitability on a continental scale. A database of B. microplus capture localities was used, which was tabulated with the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) images from the NOAA satellite series. They were obtained at 10 days intervals between 1983 and 1994, with an 8 km resolution. A cokriging system was generated to extrapolate the results. The data for habitat suitability obtained through two vegetation and four temperature variables were strongly correlated with the known distribution of B. microplus (sensitivity 0.91; specificity 0.88) and provide a good estimation of the tick habitat suitability. This model could be used as a guide to the correct interpretation of the distribution limits of B. microplus. It can be also used to prepare eradication campaigns or to make predictions about the effects of global change on the distribution of the parasite.

  4. Prognosis Can Be Predicted More Accurately Using Pre- and Postchemoradiotherapy Carcinoembryonic Antigen Levels Compared to Only Prechemoradiotherapy Carcinoembryonic Antigen Level in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients Who Received Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Sung, SooYoon; Son, Seok Hyun; Kay, Chul Seung; Lee, Yoon Suk

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of a change in the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level during neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. A total of 110 patients with clinical T3/T4 or node-positive disease underwent nCRT and curative total mesorectal resection from February 2006 to December 2013. Serum CEA level was measured before nCRT, after nCRT, and then again after surgery. A cut-off value for CEA level to predict prognosis was determined using the maximally selected log-rank test. According to the test, patients were classified into 3 groups, based on their CEA levels (Group A: pre-CRT CEA ≤3.2; Group B: pre-CRT CEA level >3.2 and post-CRT CEA ≤2.8; and Group C: pre-CRT CEA >3.2 and post-CRT CEA >2.8). The median follow-up time was 31.1 months. The 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) rates of Group A and Group B were similar, while Group C showed a significantly lower 3-year DFS rate (82.5% vs. 89.5% vs. 55.1%, respectively, P = 0.001). Other clinicopathological factors that showed statistical significance on univariate analysis were pre-CRT CEA, post-CRT CEA, tumor distance from the anal verge, surgery type, downstage, pathologic N stage, margin status and perineural invasion. The CEA group (P = 0.001) and tumor distance from the anal verge (P = 0.044) were significant prognostic factors for DFS on multivariate analysis. Post-CRT CEA level may be a useful prognostic factor in patients whose prognosis cannot be predicted exactly by pre-CRT CEA levels alone in the neoadjuvant treatment era. Combined pre-CRT CEA and post-CRT CEA levels enable us to predict prognosis more accurately and determine treatment and follow-up policies. Further large-scale studies are necessary to validate the prognostic value of CEA levels. PMID:26962798

  5. Advance care directives

    MedlinePlus

    ... advance directive; Do-not-resuscitate - advance directive; Durable power of attorney - advance care directive; POA - advance care directive; Health care agent - advance care directive; Health care proxy - ...

  6. Characteristics of predictable MJOs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H. M.; Kim, D.; Vitart, F.; Toma, V. E.; Kug, J. S.; Webster, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been considered as a major potential source of global climate predictability on subseasonal time scales. Current operational forecasting systems are able to predict the MJO up to 3-4 weeks with the mean of ensembles, while the skill is still below the theoretical estimates of the predictability (6-7 weeks). It is well accepted that MJO prediction skill in operational systems is distinctly better when the MJO is well organized with having strong amplitude at the beginning of the forecast compared to when it starts with weak or nonexistent MJOs. However, while initially strong MJOs have better skill than weak/non MJOs, the 'initial amplitude-skill' relationship is not linear. It is not every initially strong MJO that has high skill, and not every weak/non MJO that has low skill. What physical mechanism drives some MJOs to be more predictable than others? Using dynamical MJO reforecasts, this study will show that the skill of highly predictable MJOs depends on the background environment that influence on MJO evolution. The favorable conditions for highly predictable MJOs (starting with moderate amplitude) support for stronger ocean-atmosphere coupling, and for sufficient heat and low-tropospheric moisture supply for better MJO propagation, particularly for the MJO crossing over the Maritime Continent. Understanding the characteristics of predictable MJOs may provide insights into the overall predictability of MJO, thus advance the prediction of 3-4 weeks towards its theoretical limit.

  7. Advances in Laryngoscopy.

    PubMed

    Aziz, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Recent technological advances have made airway management safer. Because difficult intubation remains challenging to predict, having tools readily available that can be used to manage a difficult airway in any setting is critical. Fortunately, video technology has resulted in improvements for intubation performance while using laryngoscopy by various means. These technologies have been applied to rigid optical stylets, flexible intubation scopes, and, most notably, rigid laryngoscopes. These tools have proven effective for the anticipated difficult airway as well as the unanticipated difficult airway.

  8. Advanced Microsensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    This video looks at a spinoff application of the technology from advanced microsensors -- those that monitor and determine conditions of spacecraft like the Space Shuttle. The application featured is concerned with the monitoring of the health of premature babies.

  9. Advanced Composition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sarantos, R. L.

    1974-01-01

    This is an excerpt from a course for advanced students, designed to teach proficiency in English composition by providing activities specifically geared to the elimination of native language interference. (LG)

  10. Predicting communities from functional traits.

    PubMed

    Cadotte, Marc W; Arnillas, Carlos A; Livingstone, Stuart W; Yasui, Simone-Louise E

    2015-09-01

    Species traits influence where species live and how they interact. While there have been many advances in describing the functional composition and diversity of communities, only recently do researchers have the ability to predict community composition and diversity. This predictive ability can offer fundamental insights into ecosystem resilience and restoration. PMID:26190136

  11. Climate prediction and predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Climate prediction is generally accepted to be one of the grand challenges of the Geophysical Sciences. What is less widely acknowledged is that fundamental issues have yet to be resolved concerning the nature of the challenge, even after decades of research in this area. How do we verify or falsify a probabilistic forecast of a singular event such as anthropogenic warming over the 21st century? How do we determine the information content of a climate forecast? What does it mean for a modelling system to be "good enough" to forecast a particular variable? How will we know when models and forecasting systems are "good enough" to provide detailed forecasts of weather at specific locations or, for example, the risks associated with global geo-engineering schemes. This talk will provide an overview of these questions in the light of recent developments in multi-decade climate forecasting, drawing on concepts from information theory, machine learning and statistics. I will draw extensively but not exclusively from the experience of the climateprediction.net project, running multiple versions of climate models on personal computers.

  12. [Prognostic and predictive value of koilocytosis, expression of e6 hpv types 16/18, p16ink4a, p53 in locally advanced squamous cell carcinomas of oral cavity and oropharynx, associated with human papillomavirus].

    PubMed

    Riaboshapka, A N

    2014-11-01

    To determine the predictive and prognostic value of koilocytosis, expression of E6 HPV types 16/18, p16INK4a, p53 in patients with locally advanced HPV-associated squamous cell carcinoma of oral cavity and oropharynx. In biopsy specimens of squamous cell carcinomas of oral cavity and oropharynx from 60 patients performed koylocytes count, immunohistochemical detection of HPV 16/18 types E6 protein, proteins p16INK4a and p53. Koilocytosis was detected in 50 patients (83.3%); in all 60 patients (100%) were simultaneous expression of p16INK4a and E6 HPV types 16/18; p53 expression was found in 37 patients (61.7%). After combined treatment (induction chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy) stable disease (SD) was detected in 11 patients (18.3%), partial response (PR) - in 25 patients (41.7%), complete response (CR) - in 24 patients (40.0%). There were no cases of disease progression. Treatment effect correlated with expression of p16INK4a (ρ = 0.3, p = 0.024) and expression of p53 (ρ = - 0.3, p = 0.019). Patients with a low expression of p16INK4a (2 points) and high expression of p53 (4 "+") had a high level of SD and had no CR. For all patients, the median of overall survival (OS) was 17 months, 1-year cumulative survival rate was 66.7%, 2-year cumulative survival rate - 35.0%. Median of overall survival was correlated with koilocytosis (ρ=0.5, p<0,001) and expression of E6 HPV types 16/18 (ρ=0.9, p<0.001), p16INK4a (ρ=0.9, p=0.037), p53 (ρ=-0.9; p<0.001). Patients with low expression of p53 (0 and 1 "+") had cumulative 1-year survival rates 87% and 90%, respectively (p<0.001), 2-year survival rates - 52% and 80%, respectively (p=0.015). In the Cox proportional hazards model the significant prognostic factors were prevalence of primary tumor (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.3 - 3.5, p=0.003) and p53 expression (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1=1.7, p=0.016). High expression of p16INK4a associated with a high effect of combined treatment, high expression of a p53 - with low effect of

  13. System analysis with improved thermo-mechanical fuel rod models for modeling current and advanced LWR materials in accident scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, Ian Edward

    A nuclear reactor systems code has the ability to model the system response in an accident scenario based on known initial conditions at the onset of the transient. However, there has been a tendency for these codes to lack the detailed thermo-mechanical fuel rod response models needed for accurate prediction of fuel rod failure. This proposed work will couple today's most widely used steady-state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAPTRAN) fuel rod models with a systems code TRACE for best-estimate modeling of system response in accident scenarios such as a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In doing so, code modifications will be made to model gamma heating in LWRs during steady-state and accident conditions and to improve fuel rod thermal/mechanical analysis by allowing axial nodalization of burnup-dependent phenomena such as swelling, cladding creep and oxidation. With the ability to model both burnup-dependent parameters and transient fuel rod response, a fuel dispersal study will be conducted using a hypothetical accident scenario under both PWR and BWR conditions to determine the amount of fuel dispersed under varying conditions. Due to the fuel fragmentation size and internal rod pressure both being dependent on burnup, this analysis will be conducted at beginning, middle and end of cycle to examine the effects that cycle time can play on fuel rod failure and dispersal. Current fuel rod and system codes used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are compilations of legacy codes with only commonly used light water reactor materials, Uranium Dioxide (UO2), Mixed Oxide (U/PuO 2) and zirconium alloys. However, the events at Fukushima Daiichi and Three Mile Island accident have shown the need for exploration into advanced materials possessing improved accident tolerance. This work looks to further modify the NRC codes to include silicon carbide (SiC), an advanced cladding material proposed by current DOE funded research on accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Several

  14. Recent advances in hypersonic technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dwoyer, Douglas L.

    1990-01-01

    This paper will focus on recent advances in hypersonic aerodynamic prediction techniques. Current capabilities of existing numerical methods for predicting high Mach number flows will be discussed and shortcomings will be identified. Physical models available for inclusion into modern codes for predicting the effects of transition and turbulence will also be outlined and their limitations identified. Chemical reaction models appropriate to high-speed flows will be addressed, and the impact of their inclusion in computational fluid dynamics codes will be discussed. Finally, the problem of validating predictive techniques for high Mach number flows will be addressed.

  15. Technological Advancements

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Mike

    2010-01-01

    The influx of technology has brought significant improvements to school facilities. Many of those advancements can be found in classrooms, but when students head down the hall to use the washrooms, they are likely to find a host of technological innovations that have improved conditions in that part of the building. This article describes modern…

  16. Research Advances

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Angela G.

    2004-01-01

    Research advances, a new feature in Journal of Chemical Engineering that brings information about innovations in current areas of research to high school and college science faculty with an intent to provide educators with timely descriptions of latest progress in research that can be integrated into existing courses to update course content and…

  17. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  18. Prediction of bull fertility.

    PubMed

    Utt, Matthew D

    2016-06-01

    Prediction of male fertility is an often sought-after endeavor for many species of domestic animals. This review will primarily focus on providing some examples of dependent and independent variables to stimulate thought about the approach and methodology of identifying the most appropriate of those variables to predict bull (bovine) fertility. Although the list of variables will continue to grow with advancements in science, the principles behind making predictions will likely not change significantly. The basic principle of prediction requires identifying a dependent variable that is an estimate of fertility and an independent variable or variables that may be useful in predicting the fertility estimate. Fertility estimates vary in which parts of the process leading to conception that they infer about and the amount of variation that influences the estimate and the uncertainty thereof. The list of potential independent variables can be divided into competence of sperm based on their performance in bioassays or direct measurement of sperm attributes. A good prediction will use a sample population of bulls that is representative of the population to which an inference will be made. Both dependent and independent variables should have a dynamic range in their values. Careful selection of independent variables includes reasonable measurement repeatability and minimal correlation among variables. Proper estimation and having an appreciation of the degree of uncertainty of dependent and independent variables are crucial for using predictions to make decisions regarding bull fertility. PMID:26791329

  19. Advanced far infrared detectors

    SciTech Connect

    Haller, E.E.

    1993-05-01

    Recent advances in photoconductive and bolometric semiconductor detectors for wavelength 1 mm > {lambda} > 50 {mu}m are reviewed. Progress in detector performance in this photon energy range has been stimulated by new and stringent requirements for ground based, high altitude and space-borne telescopes for astronomical and astrophysical observations. The paper consists of chapters dealing with the various types of detectors: Be and Ga doped Ge photoconductors, stressed Ge:Ga devices and neutron transmutation doped Ge thermistors. Advances in the understanding of basic detector physics and the introduction of modern semiconductor device technology have led to predictable and reliable fabrication techniques. Integration of detectors into functional arrays has become feasible and is vigorously pursued by groups worldwide.

  20. Advanced Combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Holcomb, Gordon R.

    2013-03-11

    The activity reported in this presentation is to provide the mechanical and physical property information needed to allow rational design, development and/or choice of alloys, manufacturing approaches, and environmental exposure and component life models to enable oxy-fuel combustion boilers to operate at Ultra-Supercritical (up to 650{degrees}C & between 22-30 MPa) and/or Advanced Ultra-Supercritical conditions (760{degrees}C & 35 MPa).

  1. Advanced computing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Advanced concepts in hardware, software and algorithms are being pursued for application in next generation space computers and for ground based analysis of space data. The research program focuses on massively parallel computation and neural networks, as well as optical processing and optical networking which are discussed under photonics. Also included are theoretical programs in neural and nonlinear science, and device development for magnetic and ferroelectric memories.

  2. Advanced Nanoemulsions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fryd, Michael M.; Mason, Thomas G.

    2012-05-01

    Recent advances in the growing field of nanoemulsions are opening up new applications in many areas such as pharmaceuticals, foods, and cosmetics. Moreover, highly controlled nanoemulsions can also serve as excellent model systems for investigating basic scientific questions about soft matter. Here, we highlight some of the most recent developments in nanoemulsions, focusing on methods of formation, surface modification, material properties, and characterization. These developments provide insight into the substantial advantages that nanoemulsions can offer over their microscale emulsion counterparts.

  3. Improved methodology for integral analysis of advanced reactors employing passive safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muftuoglu, A. Kursad

    After four decades of experience with pressurized water reactors, a new generation of nuclear plants are emerging. These advanced designs employ passive safety which relies on natural forces, such as gravity and natural circulation. The new concept of passive safety also necessitates improvement in computational tools available for best-estimate analyses. The system codes originally designed for high pressure conditions in the presence of strong momentum sources such as pumps are challenged in many ways. Increased interaction of the primary system with the containment necessitates a tool for integral analysis. This study addresses some of these concerns. An improved tool for integral analysis coupling primary system with containment calculation is also presented. The code package is based on RELAP5 and CONTAIN programs, best-estimate thermal-hydraulics code for primary system analysis and containment code for containment analysis, respectively. The suitability is demonstrated with a postulated small break loss of coolant accident analysis of Westinghouse AP600 plant. The thesis explains the details of the analysis including the coupling model.

  4. Advanced fuel chemistry for advanced engines.

    SciTech Connect

    Taatjes, Craig A.; Jusinski, Leonard E.; Zador, Judit; Fernandes, Ravi X.; Miller, James A.

    2009-09-01

    Autoignition chemistry is central to predictive modeling of many advanced engine designs that combine high efficiency and low inherent pollutant emissions. This chemistry, and especially its pressure dependence, is poorly known for fuels derived from heavy petroleum and for biofuels, both of which are becoming increasingly prominent in the nation's fuel stream. We have investigated the pressure dependence of key ignition reactions for a series of molecules representative of non-traditional and alternative fuels. These investigations combined experimental characterization of hydroxyl radical production in well-controlled photolytically initiated oxidation and a hybrid modeling strategy that linked detailed quantum chemistry and computational kinetics of critical reactions with rate-equation models of the global chemical system. Comprehensive mechanisms for autoignition generally ignore the pressure dependence of branching fractions in the important alkyl + O{sub 2} reaction systems; however we have demonstrated that pressure-dependent 'formally direct' pathways persist at in-cylinder pressures.

  5. Decadal Climate Prediction: Challenges and Opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurrell, J. W.

    2010-12-01

    The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to show that climate change from global warming is already upon us, and the rate of change as projected exceeds anything seen in nature in the past 10,000 years. Uncertainties remain, however, especially regarding how climate will change at regional and local scales where the signal of natural variability is large. Decision makers in diverse arenas, from water mangers in the U.S. Southwest to public health experts in Asia, need to know if the climate events they are seeing are the product of natural variability, and hence can be expected to reverse at some point, or are the result of potentially irreversible anthropogenic climate change. The climate science community will not be able to answer these questions and reduce the uncertainties in near-term climate projections without moving toward high resolution climate system predictions, with a blurring of the distinction between shorter-term predictions and longer-term climate projections. The key is the realization that climate system predictions of natural and forced change, regardless of timescale, will require initialization of coupled general circulation models with the best estimates of the current observed state of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface, a state influenced both by the current phases of modes of natural variability and by the accumulated impacts to date of anthropogenic radiative forcing. Formidable challenges exist: for instance, what is the best method of initialization given imperfect observations and systematic errors in models, what effect does initialization have on climate predictions, what predictions should be attempted and how would they be verified? Accurate initial conditions for the global oceans are especially important and could conceivably be provided by ARGO floats and existing ocean data assimilation exercises. However, performing hindcasts prior to the ARGO float era of near-global upper

  6. Decadal Climate Prediction: Opportunities and Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurrell, J. W.

    2011-12-01

    The scientific understanding of climate change is sufficiently clear to show that climate change from global warming is already upon us, and the rate of change as projected exceeds anything seen in nature in the past 10,000 years. Uncertainties remain, however, especially regarding how climate will change at regional and local scales where the signal of natural variability is large. Decision makers in diverse arenas, from water managers in the U.S. Southwest to public health experts in Asia, need to know if the climate events they are seeing are the product of natural variability, and hence can be expected to reverse at some point, or are the result of potentially irreversible anthropogenic climate change. The climate science community will not be able to answer these questions and reduce the uncertainties in near-term climate projections without moving toward high resolution climate system predictions, with a blurring of the distinction between shorter-term predictions and longer-term climate projections. The key is the realization that climate system predictions of natural and forced change, regardless of timescale, will require initialization of coupled general circulation models with the best estimates of the current observed state of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface, a state influenced both by the current phases of modes of natural variability and by the accumulated impacts to date of anthropogenic radiative forcing. Formidable challenges exist: for instance, what is the best method of initialization given imperfect observations and systematic errors in models, what effect does initialization have on climate predictions, what predictions should be attempted and how would they be verified? Accurate initial conditions for the global oceans are especially important and could conceivably be provided by ARGO floats and existing ocean data assimilation exercises. However, performing hindcasts prior to the ARGO float era of near-global upper ocean

  7. Emerging Approaches in Predictive Toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Luoping; McHale, Cliona M.; Greene, Nigel; Snyder, Ronald D.; Rich, Ivan N.; Aardema, Marilyn J.; Roy, Shambhu; Pfuhler, Stefan; Venkatactahalam, Sundaresan

    2016-01-01

    Predictive toxicology plays an important role in the assessment of toxicity of chemicals and the drug development process. While there are several well-established in vitro and in vivo assays that are suitable for predictive toxicology, recent advances in high-throughput analytical technologies and model systems are expected to have a major impact on the field of predictive toxicology. This commentary provides an overview of the state of the current science and a brief discussion on future perspectives for the field of predictive toxicology for human toxicity. Computational models for predictive toxicology, needs for further refinement and obstacles to expand computational models to include additional classes of chemical compounds are highlighted. Functional and comparative genomics approaches in predictive toxicology are discussed with an emphasis on successful utilization of recently developed model systems for high-throughput analysis. The advantages of three-dimensional model systems and stem cells and their use in predictive toxicology testing are also described. PMID:25044351

  8. Predicting neonatal pharmacokinetics from prior data using population pharmacokinetic modeling.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jian; Edginton, Andrea N; Avant, Debbie; Burckart, Gilbert J

    2015-10-01

    Selection of the first dose for neonates in clinical trials is very challenging. The objective of this analysis was to assess if a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model developed with data from infants to adults is predictive of neonatal clearance and to evaluate what age range of prior PK data is needed for informative modeling to predict neonate exposure. Two sources of pharmacokinetic data from 8 drugs were used to develop population models: (1) data from all patients > 2 years of age, and (2) data from all nonneonatal patients aged > 28 days. The prediction error based on the models using data from subjects > 2 years of age showed bias toward overprediction, with median average fold error (AFE) for CL predicted/CLobserved greater than 1.5. The bias for predicting neonatal PK was improved when using all prior PK data including infants as opposed to an assessment without infant PK data, with the median AFE 0.91. As an increased number of pediatric trials are conducted in neonates under the Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act, dose selection should be based on the best estimates of neonatal pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics prior to conducting efficacy and safety studies in neonates. PMID:25907280

  9. Advanced Chemistry Basins Model

    SciTech Connect

    William Goddard; Mario Blanco; Lawrence Cathles; Paul Manhardt; Peter Meulbroek; Yongchun Tang

    2002-11-10

    The DOE-funded Advanced Chemistry Basin model project is intended to develop a public domain, user-friendly basin modeling software under PC or low end workstation environment that predicts hydrocarbon generation, expulsion, migration and chemistry. The main features of the software are that it will: (1) afford users the most flexible way to choose or enter kinetic parameters for different maturity indicators; (2) afford users the most flexible way to choose or enter compositional kinetic parameters to predict hydrocarbon composition (e.g., gas/oil ratio (GOR), wax content, API gravity, etc.) at different kerogen maturities; (3) calculate the chemistry, fluxes and physical properties of all hydrocarbon phases (gas, liquid and solid) along the primary and secondary migration pathways of the basin and predict the location and intensity of phase fractionation, mixing, gas washing, etc.; and (4) predict the location and intensity of de-asphaltene processes. The project has be operative for 36 months, and is on schedule for a successful completion at the end of FY 2003.

  10. Do group-specific equations provide the best estimates of stature?

    PubMed

    Albanese, John; Osley, Stephanie E; Tuck, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    An estimate of stature can be used by a forensic anthropologist with the preliminary identification of an unknown individual when human skeletal remains are recovered. Fordisc is a computer application that can be used to estimate stature; like many other methods it requires the user to assign an unknown individual to a specific group defined by sex, race/ancestry, and century of birth before an equation is applied. The assumption is that a group-specific equation controls for group differences and should provide the best results most often. In this paper we assess the utility and benefits of using group-specific equations to estimate stature using Fordisc. Using the maximum length of the humerus and the maximum length of the femur from individuals with documented stature, we address the question: Do sex-, race/ancestry- and century-specific stature equations provide the best results when estimating stature? The data for our sample of 19th Century White males (n=28) were entered into Fordisc and stature was estimated using 22 different equation options for a total of 616 trials: 19th and 20th Century Black males, 19th and 20th Century Black females, 19th and 20th Century White females, 19th and 20th Century White males, 19th and 20th Century any, and 20th Century Hispanic males. The equations were assessed for utility in any one case (how many times the estimated range bracketed the documented stature) and in aggregate using 1-way ANOVA and other approaches. This group-specific equation that should have provided the best results was outperformed by several other equations for both the femur and humerus. These results suggest that group-specific equations do not provide better results for estimating stature while at the same time are more difficult to apply because an unknown must be allocated to a given group before stature can be estimated. PMID:26945108

  11. The Lifetime Prevalence of Anabolic-Androgenic Steroid Use and Dependence in Americans: Current Best Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Pope, Harrison G.; Kanayama, Gen; Athey, Alison; Ryan, Erin; Hudson, James I.; Baggish, Aaron

    2013-01-01

    Background and Objectives Although various surveys have tracked the prevalence of anabolic-androgenic steroid (AAS) use in American teenagers and young adults, no recent surveys have assessed the lifetime prevalence of AAS use in Americans overall. We therefore analyzed serial youth-survey data to derive estimates of the lifetime prevalence of AAS use in the current American general population. Methods We first determined the distribution of age of onset of AAS use, based on pooled data from nine studies. Using this distribution, we then developed equations to project the eventual lifetime prevalence of AAS use among young survey respondents, once they aged and completed the period of risk for initiating AAS. We similarly calculated the denominator of lifetimes of risk for AAS use in the total American population. We next applied these equations to four independent national youth datasets to derive current American general-population estimates for lifetime AAS use. Finally, using data from 10 pooled studies, we estimated the lifetime prevalence of AAS dependence among AAS users. Results Age-of-onset studies consistently showed that AAS use begins later than most drugs, with only 22% of users (95% confidence interval: 19%–25%) starting before age 20. Applying the age-of-onset findings to national youth datasets, we estimated that among Americans currently age 13 to 50 years, 2.9–4.0 million have used AAS. Within this group, roughly 1 million may have experienced AAS dependence. Conclusions and Scientific Significance Although subject to various limitations, our estimation techniques suggest a surprisinigly high prevalence of AAS use and dependence among Americans. PMID:24112239

  12. Clouds and more: ARM climate modeling best estimate data: A new data product for climate studies

    DOE PAGES

    Xie, Shaocheng; McCoy, Renata B.; Klein, Stephen A.; Cederwall, Richard T.; Wiscombe, Warren J.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Gaustad, Krista L.; Golaz, Jean -Christophe; Hall, Stephanie D.; Jensen, Michael P.; et al

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program (www.arm.gov) was created in 1989 to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation atmosphere. Here, a central activity is the acquisition of detailed observations of clouds and radiation, as well as related atmospheric variables for climate model evaluation and improvement.

  13. Challenger STS-17 (41-G) post-flight best estimate trajectory products: Development and summary results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, G. M.; Heck, M. L.; Mcconnell, J. G.; Waters, L. A.; Troutman, P. A.; Findlay, J. T.

    1985-01-01

    Results from the STS-17 (41-G) post-flight products are presented. Operational Instrumentation recorder gaps, coupled with the limited tracking coverage available for this high inclination entry profile, necessitated selection of an anchor epoch for reconstruction corresponding to an unusually low altitude of h approx. 297 kft. The final inertial trajectory obtained, BT17N26/UN=169750N, is discussed in Section I, i.e., relative to the problems encountered with the OI and ACIP recorded data on this Challenger flight. Atmospheric selection, again in view of the ground track displacement from the remote meteorological sites, constituted a major problem area as discussed in Section II. The LAIRS file provided by Langley was adopted, with NOAA data utilized over the lowermost approx. 7 kft. As discussed in Section II, the Extended BET, ST17BET/UN=274885C, suggests a limited upper altitude (H approx. 230 kft) for which meaningful flight extraction can be expected. This is further demonstrated, though not considered a limitation, in Section III wherein summary results from the AEROBET (NJ0333 with NJ0346 as duplicate) are presented. GTFILEs were generated only for the selected IMU (IMU2) and the Rate Gyro Assembly/Accelerometer Assembly data due to the loss of ACIP data. Appendices attached present inputs for the generation of the post-flight products (Appendix A), final residual plots (Appendix B), a two second spaced listing of the relevant parameters from the Extended BET (Appendix C), and an archival section (Appendix D) devoting input (source) and output files and/or physical reels.

  14. Best estimate of luminal cross-sectional area of coronary arteries from angiograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, P. L.; Selzer, R. H.

    1988-01-01

    We have reexamined the problem of estimating the luminal area of an elliptically-shaped coronary artery cross section from two or more radiographic diameter measurements. The expected error is found to be much smaller than the maximum potential error. In the cae of two orthogonal views, closed form expressions have been derived for calculating the area and the uncertainty. Assuming that the underlying ellipse has limited ellipticity (major/minor axis ratio less than five), it is shown that the average uncertainty in the area is less than 14 percent. When more than two views are available, we suggest using a least-squares fit method to extract all available information from the data.

  15. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-01-26

    Calculate monthly mean diurnal cycle based on the hourly CMBE data with qcflag >=-1 (>30% valid data within the averaged hour). For 2-D clouds, only data over the period when both MMCR and MPL were working are used.

  16. Subtitle-Based Word Frequencies as the Best Estimate of Reading Behavior: The Case of Greek

    PubMed Central

    Dimitropoulou, Maria; Duñabeitia, Jon Andoni; Avilés, Alberto; Corral, José; Carreiras, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    Previous evidence has shown that word frequencies calculated from corpora based on film and television subtitles can readily account for reading performance, since the language used in subtitles greatly approximates everyday language. The present study examines this issue in a society with increased exposure to subtitle reading. We compiled SUBTLEX-GR, a subtitled-based corpus consisting of more than 27 million Modern Greek words, and tested to what extent subtitle-based frequency estimates and those taken from a written corpus of Modern Greek account for the lexical decision performance of young Greek adults who are exposed to subtitle reading on a daily basis. Results showed that SUBTLEX-GR frequency estimates effectively accounted for participants’ reading performance in two different visual word recognition experiments. More importantly, different analyses showed that frequencies estimated from a subtitle corpus explained the obtained results significantly better than traditional frequencies derived from written corpora. PMID:21833273

  17. ARM Best Estimate Data (ARMBE) Products for Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Riihimaki, Laura; Gaustad, Krista; McFarlane, Sally

    2014-06-12

    This data set was created for the Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) model testbed project and is an extension of the hourly average ARMBE dataset to other extended facility sites and to include uncertainty estimates. Uncertainty estimates were needed in order to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques with the data.

  18. The ARM Southern Great Plains Central Facility Best Estimate Radiative Flux CD

    SciTech Connect

    Long, CN

    2002-04-01

    The BEFlux VAP directly compares data from the three Normal Incidence Perheliometers, shaded pyranometers, and shaded pyrgeometers at the SGP CF. Extensive analysis with several years of data has produced limits of typical ranges of agreement when these instruments are performing as expected. These limits are used to screen the data, and then the average is taken of the two that agree best, given that at least two instruments agree to within the established limits. This is done for the downwelling direct normal and diffuse shortwave, and the downwelling longwave. The total (global) downwelling shortwave is then the sum of the direct and diffuse components.

  19. Do group-specific equations provide the best estimates of stature?

    PubMed

    Albanese, John; Osley, Stephanie E; Tuck, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    An estimate of stature can be used by a forensic anthropologist with the preliminary identification of an unknown individual when human skeletal remains are recovered. Fordisc is a computer application that can be used to estimate stature; like many other methods it requires the user to assign an unknown individual to a specific group defined by sex, race/ancestry, and century of birth before an equation is applied. The assumption is that a group-specific equation controls for group differences and should provide the best results most often. In this paper we assess the utility and benefits of using group-specific equations to estimate stature using Fordisc. Using the maximum length of the humerus and the maximum length of the femur from individuals with documented stature, we address the question: Do sex-, race/ancestry- and century-specific stature equations provide the best results when estimating stature? The data for our sample of 19th Century White males (n=28) were entered into Fordisc and stature was estimated using 22 different equation options for a total of 616 trials: 19th and 20th Century Black males, 19th and 20th Century Black females, 19th and 20th Century White females, 19th and 20th Century White males, 19th and 20th Century any, and 20th Century Hispanic males. The equations were assessed for utility in any one case (how many times the estimated range bracketed the documented stature) and in aggregate using 1-way ANOVA and other approaches. This group-specific equation that should have provided the best results was outperformed by several other equations for both the femur and humerus. These results suggest that group-specific equations do not provide better results for estimating stature while at the same time are more difficult to apply because an unknown must be allocated to a given group before stature can be estimated.

  20. Enhancement/upgrade of Engine Structures Technology Best Estimator (EST/BEST) Software System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, Ashwin

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the work performed during the contract period and the capabilities included in the EST/BEST software system. The developed EST/BEST software system includes the integrated NESSUS, IPACS, COBSTRAN, and ALCCA computer codes required to perform the engine cycle mission and component structural analysis. Also, the interactive input generator for NESSUS, IPACS, and COBSTRAN computer codes have been developed and integrated with the EST/BEST software system. The input generator allows the user to create input from scratch as well as edit existing input files interactively. Since it has been integrated with the EST/BEST software system, it enables the user to modify EST/BEST generated files and perform the analysis to evaluate the benefits. Appendix A gives details of how to use the newly added features in the EST/BEST software system.

  1. Advanced LIGO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Aasi, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T.; Abernathy, M. R.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V.; Affeldt, C.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Alemic, A.; Allen, B.; Amariutei, D.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C.; Areeda, J. S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, S.; Aston, S. M.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Aylott, B. E.; Babak, S.; Baker, P. T.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barbet, M.; Barclay, S.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Bartlett, J.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Behnke, B.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C.; Benacquista, M.; Bergman, J.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Biscans, S.; Biwer, C.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bojtos, P.; Bond, C.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Bose, Sukanta; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Brau, J. E.; Bridges, D. O.; Brinkmann, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Buchman, S.; Buikema, A.; Buonanno, A.; Cadonati, L.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Caride, S.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cepeda, C.; Chakraborty, R.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chen, Y.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Collette, C.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Countryman, S.; Couvares, P.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cutler, C.; Dahl, K.; Dal Canton, T.; Damjanic, M.; Danilishin, S. L.; Danzmann, K.; Dartez, L.; Dave, I.; Daveloza, H.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; DeBra, D.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; D´ıaz, M.; Di Palma, I.; Dojcinoski, G.; Dominguez, E.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Dwyer, S.; Eberle, T.; Edo, T.; Edwards, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Essick, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Factourovich, M.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Feldbaum, D.; Ferreira, E. C.; Fisher, R. P.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fuentes-Tapia, S.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gair, J. R.; Gaonkar, S.; Gehrels, N.; Gergely, L. Á.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Gleason, J.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gordon, N.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S.; Goßler, S.; Gräf, C.; Graff, P. B.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guido, C. J.; Guo, X.; Gushwa, K.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Hanke, M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Hee, S.; Heintze, M.; Heinzel, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Hollitt, S. E.; Holt, K.; Hopkins, P.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Houston, E.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh, M.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Idrisy, A.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Islas, G.; Isler, J. C.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacobson, M.; Jang, H.; Jawahar, S.; Ji, Y.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Ju, L.; Haris, K.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, H.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kawazoe, F.; Keiser, G. M.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Key, J. S.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, C.; Kim, K.; Kim, N. G.; Kim, N.; Kim, Y.-M.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kline, J.; Koehlenbeck, S.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, P.; Kuo, L.; Landry, M.; Lantz, B.; Larson, S.; Lasky, P. D.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Le, J.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Leong, J. R.; Levin, Y.; Levine, B.; Lewis, J.; Li, T. G. F.; Libbrecht, K.; Libson, A.; Lin, A. C.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lockett, V.; Logue, J.; Lombardi, A. L.; Lormand, M.; Lough, J.; Lubinski, M. J.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macarthur, J.; MacDonald, T.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magee, R.; Mageswaran, M.; Maglione, C.; Mailand, K.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Maros, E.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martynov, D.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Massinger, T. J.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McLin, K.; McWilliams, S.; Meadors, G. D.; Meinders, M.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyers, P. M.; Miao, H.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Miller, A.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moe, B.; Mohanty, S. D.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moore, B.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nash, T.; Nayak, R. K.; Necula, V.; Nedkova, K.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A. H.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, R.; O'Reilly, B.; Ortega, W.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ott, C. D.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Padilla, C.; Pai, A.; Pai, S.; Palashov, O.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H.; Patrick, Z.; Pedraza, M.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Phelps, M.; Pierro, V.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poeld, J.; Post, A.; Poteomkin, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Premachandra, S.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Pürrer, M.; Qin, J.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E.; Quiroga, G.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajalakshmi, G.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramirez, K.; Raymond, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Reula, O.; Riles, K.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V.; Romano, J. D.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sannibale, V.; Santiago-Prieto, I.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Sawadsky, A.; Scheuer, J.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sergeev, A.; Serna, G.; Sevigny, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shao, Z.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sidery, T. L.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L.; Singh, R.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith-Lefebvre, N. D.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Souradeep, T.; Staley, A.; Stebbins, J.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Steplewski, S.; Stevenson, S.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sutton, P. J.; Szczepanczyk, M.; Szeifert, G.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Tellez, G.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, V.; Tomlinson, C.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Traylor, G.; Tse, M.; Tshilumba, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Vincent-Finley, R.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vorvick, C.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Wessels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Williams, L.; Williams, R.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Worden, J.; Xie, S.; Yablon, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yang, Q.; Zanolin, M.; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S.; Zweizig, J.

    2015-04-01

    The Advanced LIGO gravitational wave detectors are second-generation instruments designed and built for the two LIGO observatories in Hanford, WA and Livingston, LA, USA. The two instruments are identical in design, and are specialized versions of a Michelson interferometer with 4 km long arms. As in Initial LIGO, Fabry-Perot cavities are used in the arms to increase the interaction time with a gravitational wave, and power recycling is used to increase the effective laser power. Signal recycling has been added in Advanced LIGO to improve the frequency response. In the most sensitive frequency region around 100 Hz, the design strain sensitivity is a factor of 10 better than Initial LIGO. In addition, the low frequency end of the sensitivity band is moved from 40 Hz down to 10 Hz. All interferometer components have been replaced with improved technologies to achieve this sensitivity gain. Much better seismic isolation and test mass suspensions are responsible for the gains at lower frequencies. Higher laser power, larger test masses and improved mirror coatings lead to the improved sensitivity at mid and high frequencies. Data collecting runs with these new instruments are planned to begin in mid-2015.

  2. Graphing Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connery, Keely Flynn

    2007-01-01

    Graphing predictions is especially important in classes where relationships between variables need to be explored and derived. In this article, the author describes how his students sketch the graphs of their predictions before they begin their investigations on two laboratory activities: Distance Versus Time Cart Race Lab and Resistance; and…

  3. Aeroacoustics of advanced propellers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groeneweg, John F.

    1990-01-01

    The aeroacoustics of advanced, high speed propellers (propfans) are reviewed from the perspective of NASA research conducted in support of the Advanced Turboprop Program. Aerodynamic and acoustic components of prediction methods for near and far field noise are summarized for both single and counterrotation propellers in uninstalled and configurations. Experimental results from tests at both takeoff/approach and cruise conditions are reviewed with emphasis on: (1) single and counterrotation model tests in the NASA Lewis 9 by 15 (low speed) and 8 by 6 (high speed) wind tunnels, and (2) full scale flight tests of a 9 ft (2.74 m) diameter single rotation wing mounted tractor and a 11.7 ft (3.57 m) diameter counterrotation aft mounted pusher propeller. Comparisons of model data projected to flight with full scale flight data show good agreement validating the scale model wind tunnel approach. Likewise, comparisons of measured and predicted noise level show excellent agreement for both single and counterrotation propellers. Progress in describing angle of attack and installation effects is also summarized. Finally, the aeroacoustic issues associated with ducted propellers (very high bypass fans) are discussed.

  4. Nomograms Predicting Progression-Free Survival, Overall Survival, and Pelvic Recurrence in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer Developed From an Analysis of Identifiable Prognostic Factors in Patients From NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group Randomized Trials of Chemoradiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Rose, Peter G.; Java, James; Whitney, Charles W.; Stehman, Frederick B.; Lanciano, Rachelle; Thomas, Gillian M.; DiSilvestro, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the prognostic factors in locally advanced cervical cancer limited to the pelvis and develop nomograms for 2-year progression-free survival (PFS), 5-year overall survival (OS), and pelvic recurrence. Patients and Methods We retrospectively reviewed 2,042 patients with locally advanced cervical carcinoma enrolled onto Gynecologic Oncology Group clinical trials of concurrent cisplatin-based chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Nomograms for 2-year PFS, five-year OS, and pelvic recurrence were created as visualizations of Cox proportional hazards regression models. The models were validated by bootstrap-corrected, relatively unbiased estimates of discrimination and calibration. Results Multivariable analysis identified prognostic factors including histology, race/ethnicity, performance status, tumor size, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, tumor grade, pelvic node status, and treatment with concurrent cisplatin-based chemotherapy. PFS, OS, and pelvic recurrence nomograms had bootstrap-corrected concordance indices of 0.62, 0.64, and 0.73, respectively, and were well calibrated. Conclusion Prognostic factors were used to develop nomograms for 2-year PFS, 5-year OS, and pelvic recurrence for locally advanced cervical cancer clinically limited to the pelvis treated with concurrent cisplatin-based chemotherapy and radiotherapy. These nomograms can be used to better estimate individual and collective outcomes. PMID:25732170

  5. Advanced Pacemaker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Synchrony, developed by St. Jude Medical's Cardiac Rhythm Management Division (formerly known as Pacesetter Systems, Inc.) is an advanced state-of-the-art implantable pacemaker that closely matches the natural rhythm of the heart. The companion element of the Synchrony Pacemaker System is the Programmer Analyzer APS-II which allows a doctor to reprogram and fine tune the pacemaker to each user's special requirements without surgery. The two-way communications capability that allows the physician to instruct and query the pacemaker is accomplished by bidirectional telemetry. APS-II features 28 pacing functions and thousands of programming combinations to accommodate diverse lifestyles. Microprocessor unit also records and stores pertinent patient data up to a year.

  6. Visual prediction and perceptual expertise

    PubMed Central

    Cheung, Olivia S.; Bar, Moshe

    2012-01-01

    Making accurate predictions about what may happen in the environment requires analogies between perceptual input and associations in memory. These elements of predictions are based on cortical representations, but little is known about how these processes can be enhanced by experience and training. On the other hand, studies on perceptual expertise have revealed that the acquisition of expertise leads to strengthened associative processing among features or objects, suggesting that predictions and expertise may be tightly connected. Here we review the behavioral and neural findings regarding the mechanisms involving prediction and expert processing, and highlight important possible overlaps between them. Future investigation should examine the relations among perception, memory and prediction skills as a function of expertise. The knowledge gained by this line of research will have implications for visual cognition research, and will advance our understanding of how the human brain can improve its ability to predict by learning from experience. PMID:22123523

  7. Intra-and-Inter Species Biomass Prediction in a Plantation Forest: Testing the Utility of High Spatial Resolution Spaceborne Multispectral RapidEye Sensor and Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms

    PubMed Central

    Dube, Timothy; Mutanga, Onisimo; Adam, Elhadi; Ismail, Riyad

    2014-01-01

    The quantification of aboveground biomass using remote sensing is critical for better understanding the role of forests in carbon sequestration and for informed sustainable management. Although remote sensing techniques have been proven useful in assessing forest biomass in general, more is required to investigate their capabilities in predicting intra-and-inter species biomass which are mainly characterised by non-linear relationships. In this study, we tested two machine learning algorithms, Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) and Random Forest (RF) regression trees to predict intra-and-inter species biomass using high resolution RapidEye reflectance bands as well as the derived vegetation indices in a commercial plantation. The results showed that the SGB algorithm yielded the best performance for intra-and-inter species biomass prediction; using all the predictor variables as well as based on the most important selected variables. For example using the most important variables the algorithm produced an R2 of 0.80 and RMSE of 16.93 t·ha−1 for E. grandis; R2 of 0.79, RMSE of 17.27 t·ha−1 for P. taeda and R2 of 0.61, RMSE of 43.39 t·ha−1 for the combined species data sets. Comparatively, RF yielded plausible results only for E. dunii (R2 of 0.79; RMSE of 7.18 t·ha−1). We demonstrated that although the two statistical methods were able to predict biomass accurately, RF produced weaker results as compared to SGB when applied to combined species dataset. The result underscores the relevance of stochastic models in predicting biomass drawn from different species and genera using the new generation high resolution RapidEye sensor with strategically positioned bands. PMID:25140631

  8. Advanced capacitors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, R. D.; Buritz, R. S.; Taylor, A. R.; Bullwinkel, E. P.

    1982-11-01

    An experimental development program was conducted to develop and test advanced dielectric materials for capacitors for airborne power systems. High rep rate and low rate capacitors for use in pulse-forming networks, high voltage filter capacitors, and high frequency ac capacitors for series resonant inverters were considered. The initial goal was to develop an improved polysulfone film. Initially, low breakdown strength was thought to be related to inclusions of conductive particles. The effect of filtration of the casting solution was investigated. These experiments showed that more filtration was not the entire solution to low breakdown. The film samples were found to contain dissolved ionic impurities that move through the dielectric when voltage is applied and cause enhancement of the electric field. These contaminants enter the film via the resin and solvent, and can be partially removed. However, these treatments did not significantly improve the breakdown characteristics. A new material, Ultem, was proposed for use in high energy density capacitors. This new polyetherimide resin has properties similar to polysulfone and polyimide, with improvement in breakdown characteristics and temperature capability. The technique of casting films on a roughened drum was demonstrated, and found useful in preparing textured films. this is the first step toward a replacement for kraft paper.

  9. Advanced capacitors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ennis, J. B.; Buritz, R. S.

    1984-10-01

    This report describes an experimental program to develop and test advanced dielectric materials for capacitors for airborne power systems. Five classes of capacitors were considered: high rep rate and low rep rate pulse capacitors for use in pulse-forming networks, high voltage filter capacitors, high frequency AC capacitors for series resonant inverters, and AC filter capacitors. To meet these requirements, existing dielectric materials were modified, and new materials were developed. The initial goal was to develop an improved polysulfone film with fewer imperfections that could operate at significantly higher electrical stresses. It was shown that contaminants enter the film via the resin and solvent, and that they can be partially removed. As far as developed, however, these treatments did not significantly improved the breakdown characteristics. The technique of casting films on a roughened drum was demonstrated, and found useful in preparing textured films -- the first step toward a replacement for Kraft paper. A new material, Ultem, was proposed for use in high energy density capacitors. This new polyetherimide resin has properties similar to polysulfone and polyimide, with improvement in breakdown characteristics and temperature capability. This material was selected for further study in model capacitor designs.

  10. El Nino and climate prediction

    SciTech Connect

    1994-12-31

    This booklet describes how winds that flow from east to west across the equatorial Pacific Ocean are driven by the atmospheric-pressure differential between eastern and western Pacific, and goes on to discuss how this affects the ENSO cycle. Advances and successes in prediction of the ENSO are briefly describe in this NOAA publication.

  11. PREDICTIVE MODELS

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, R.M. )

    1986-12-01

    PREDICTIVE MODELS is a collection of five models - CFPM, CO2PM, ICPM, PFPM, and SFPM - used in the 1982-1984 National Petroleum Council study of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential. Each pertains to a specific EOR process designed to squeeze additional oil from aging or spent oil fields. The processes are: 1) chemical flooding, where soap-like surfactants are injected into the reservoir to wash out the oil; 2) carbon dioxide miscible flooding, where carbon dioxide mixes with the lighter hydrocarbons making the oil easier to displace; 3) in-situ combustion, which uses the heat from burning some of the underground oil to thin the product; 4) polymer flooding, where thick, cohesive material is pumped into a reservoir to push the oil through the underground rock; and 5) steamflood, where pressurized steam is injected underground to thin the oil. CFPM, the Chemical Flood Predictive Model, models micellar (surfactant)-polymer floods in reservoirs, which have been previously waterflooded to residual oil saturation. Thus, only true tertiary floods are considered. An option allows a rough estimate of oil recovery by caustic or caustic-polymer processes. CO2PM, the Carbon Dioxide miscible flooding Predictive Model, is applicable to both secondary (mobile oil) and tertiary (residual oil) floods, and to either continuous CO2 injection or water-alternating gas processes. ICPM, the In-situ Combustion Predictive Model, computes the recovery and profitability of an in-situ combustion project from generalized performance predictive algorithms. PFPM, the Polymer Flood Predictive Model, is switch-selectable for either polymer or waterflooding, and an option allows the calculation of the incremental oil recovery and economics of polymer relative to waterflooding. SFPM, the Steamflood Predictive Model, is applicable to the steam drive process, but not to cyclic steam injection (steam soak) processes.

  12. Reliability Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    RELAV, a NASA-developed computer program, enables Systems Control Technology, Inc. (SCT) to predict performance of aircraft subsystems. RELAV provides a system level evaluation of a technology. Systems, the mechanism of a landing gear for example, are first described as a set of components performing a specific function. RELAV analyzes the total system and the individual subsystem probabilities to predict success probability, and reliability. This information is then translated into operational support and maintenance requirements. SCT provides research and development services in support of government contracts.

  13. Early onset of hypertension and serum electrolyte changes as potential predictive factors of activity in advanced HCC patients treated with sorafenib: results from a retrospective analysis of the HCC-AVR group

    PubMed Central

    Gardini, Andrea Casadei; Scarpi, Emanuela; Marisi, Giorgia; Foschi, Francesco Giuseppe; Donati, Gabriele; Giampalma, Emanuela; Faloppi, Luca; Scartozzi, Mario; Silvestris, Nicola; Bisulli, Marcello; Corbelli, Jody; Gardini, Andrea; Barba, Giuliano La; Veneroni, Luigi; Tamberi, Stefano; Cascinu, Stefano; Frassineti, Giovanni Luca

    2016-01-01

    Hypertension (HTN) is frequently associated with the use of angiogenesis inhibitors targeting the vascular endothelial growth factor pathway and appears to be a generalized effect of this class of agent. We investigated the phenomenon in 61 patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving sorafenib. Blood pressure and plasma electrolytes were measured on days 1 and 15 of the treatment. Patients with sorafenib-induced HTN had a better outcome than those without HTN (disease control rate: 63.4% vs. 17.2% (p=0.001); progression-free survival 6.0 months (95% CI 3.2-10.1) vs. 2.5 months (95% CI 1.9-2.6) (p<0.001) and overall survival 14.6 months (95% CI9.7-19.0) vs. 3.9 months (95% CI 3.1-8.7) (p=0.003). Sodium levels were generally higher on day 15 than at baseline (+2.38, p<0.0001) in the group of responders (+4.95, p <0.0001) compared to patients who progressed (PD) (+0.28, p=0.607). In contrast, potassium was lower on day 14 (−0.30, p=0.0008) in the responder group (−0.58, p=0.003) than in those with progressive disease (−0.06, p=0.500). The early onset of hypertension is associated with improved clinical outcome in HCC patients treated with sorafenib. Our data are suggestive of an activation of the renin-angiotensin system in patients with advanced disease who developed HTN during sorafenib treatment. PMID:26893366

  14. Early Decreases in α-Fetoprotein and Des-γ-carboxy Prothrombin Predict the Antitumor Effects of Hepatic Transarterial Infusion Chemotherapy with Cisplatin (CDDP) Powder in Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Hatanaka, Takeshi; Kakizaki, Satoru; Shimada, Yasushi; Takizawa, Daichi; Katakai, Kenji; Yamazaki, Yuichi; Sato, Ken; Kusano, Motoyasu; Yamada, Masanobu

    2016-01-01

    Objective We retrospectively investigated the relationship between the tumor response and serial changes in α-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) during hepatic arterial infusion of a cisplatin powder formulation (CDDP powder) in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods Seventy-six advanced HCC patients were analyzed. All HCC patients received high-concentration cisplatin (1.43 mg/mL) via the haptic artery at a dose of 65 mg/m(2). AFP and DCP were measured at baseline and four to eight weeks after treatment, and the antitumor responses were evaluated according to the response evaluation criteria in solid tumours (RECIST) criteria after one or two courses of treatment. The patients were classified into two groups, a decreased group and a non-decreased group, according to the change in the serum levels of AFP and DCP at four to eight weeks compared to baseline. Results The response to treatment of the decreased group (n=16) and non-decreased group (n=60) was complete response/partial response/stable disease/progressive disease (CR/PR/SD/PD) in 4/4/5/3 and 1/11/8/40 patients, respectively. The response rate and disease control rate of the decreased group were significantly higher than those of the non-decreased group (p=0.016 and p<0.001, respectively). The median survival time (MST) of the decreased/non-decreased groups were 25.9/10.6 months, respectively. The cumulative survival rates for the decreased group were significantly higher than those of the non-decreased group (p=0.042). In the multivariate analysis, vascular invasion and the decreased group were significant factors that affected the therapeutic efficacy. Conclusion A decrease in the levels of AFP and DCP after the first treatment with CDDP powder is a good predictor for the antitumor effect and the prognosis. PMID:27522991

  15. ENSO predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larson, Sarah Michelle

    The overarching goal of this work is to explore seasonal El Nino -- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. More specifically, this work investigates how intrinsic variability affects ENSO predictability using a state-of-the-art climate model. Topics related to the effects of systematic model errors and external forcing are not included in this study. Intrinsic variability encompasses a hierarchy of temporal and spatial scales, from high frequency small-scale noise-driven processes including coupled instabilities to low frequency large-scale deterministic climate modes. The former exemplifies what can be considered intrinsic "noise" in the climate system that hinders predictability by promoting rapid error growth whereas the latter often provides the slow thermal ocean inertia that supplies the coupled ENSO system with predictability. These two ends of the spectrum essentially provide the lower and upper bounds of ENSO predictability that can be attributed to internal variability. The effects of noise-driven coupled instabilities on sea surface temperature (SST) predictability in the ENSO region is quantified by utilizing a novel coupled model methodology paired with an ensemble approach. The experimental design allows for rapid growth of intrinsic perturbations that are not prescribed. Several cases exhibit sufficiently rapid growth to produce ENSO-like final states that do not require a previous ENSO event, large-scale wind trigger, or subsurface heat content precursor. Results challenge conventional ENSO theory that considers the subsurface precursor as a necessary condition for ENSO. Noise-driven SST error growth exhibits strong seasonality and dependence on the initialization month. A dynamical analysis reveals that much of the error growth behavior is linked to the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback in the model, indicating that the noise-induced perturbations grow via an ENSO-like mechanism. The daily error fields reveal that persistent

  16. Prediction techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1981-12-01

    Prediction methods and related propagation results for the evaluation of Earth-space communication paths operating above 10 GHz are presented. Gaseous attenuation, rain, cloud, fog, sand, and dust attenuation, path diversity, signal fluctuations and low angle fading, depolarization effects, bandwidth coherence, and sky noise are considered.

  17. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. Part 2: Theoretical development of a dynamic model and application to rain fade durations and tolerable control delays for fade countermeasures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1987-01-01

    A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.

  18. Advanced Virgo phase cameras

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Schaaf, L.; Agatsuma, K.; van Beuzekom, M.; Gebyehu, M.; van den Brand, J.

    2016-05-01

    A century after the prediction of gravitational waves, detectors have reached the sensitivity needed to proof their existence. One of them, the Virgo interferometer in Pisa, is presently being upgraded to Advanced Virgo (AdV) and will come into operation in 2016. The power stored in the interferometer arms raises from 20 to 700 kW. This increase is expected to introduce higher order modes in the beam, which could reduce the circulating power in the interferometer, limiting the sensitivity of the instrument. To suppress these higher-order modes, the core optics of Advanced Virgo is equipped with a thermal compensation system. Phase cameras, monitoring the real-time status of the beam constitute a critical component of this compensation system. These cameras measure the phases and amplitudes of the laser-light fields at the frequencies selected to control the interferometer. The measurement combines heterodyne detection with a scan of the wave front over a photodetector with pin-hole aperture. Three cameras observe the phase front of these laser sidebands. Two of them monitor the in-and output of the interferometer arms and the third one is used in the control of the aberrations introduced by the power recycling cavity. In this paper the working principle of the phase cameras is explained and some characteristic parameters are described.

  19. Advancing empirical resilience research.

    PubMed

    Kalisch, Raffael; Müller, Marianne B; Tüscher, Oliver

    2015-01-01

    We are delighted by the broad, intense, and fruitful discussion in reaction to our target article. A major point we take from the many comments is a prevailing feeling in the research community that we need significantly and urgently to advance resilience research, both by sharpening concepts and theories and by conducting empirical studies at a much larger scale and with a much more extended and sophisticated methodological arsenal than is the case currently. This advancement can be achieved only in a concerted international collaborative effort. In our response, we try to argue that an explicitly atheoretical, purely observational definition of resilience and a transdiagnostic, quantitative study framework can provide a suitable basis for empirically testing different competing resilience theories (sects. R1, R2, R6, R7). We are confident that it should be possible to unite resilience researchers from different schools, including from sociology and social psychology, behind such a pragmatic and theoretically neutral research strategy. In sections R3 to R5, we further specify and explain the positive appraisal style theory of resilience (PASTOR). We defend PASTOR as a comparatively parsimonious and translational theory that makes sufficiently concrete predictions to be evaluated empirically. PMID:26815844

  20. Advanced Motors

    SciTech Connect

    Knoth, Edward A; Chelluri, Bhanumathi; Schumaker, Edward J

    2012-12-14

    vProject Summary Transportation energy usage is predicted to increase substantially by 2020. Hybrid vehicles and fuel cell powered vehicles are destined to become more prominent as fuel prices rise with the demand. Hybrid and fuel cell vehicle platforms are both dependent on high performance electric motors. Electric motors for transportation duty will require sizeable low-speed torque to accelerate the vehicle. As motor speed increases, the torque requirement decreases which results in a nearly constant power motor output. Interior permanent magnet synchronous motors (IPMSM) are well suited for this duty. , , These rotor geometries are configured in straight lines and semi circular arc shapes. These designs are of limited configurations because of the lack of availability of permanent magnets of any other shapes at present. We propose to fabricate rotors via a novel processing approach where we start with magnet powders and compact them into a net shape rotor in a single step. Using this approach, widely different rotor designs can be implemented for efficiency. The current limitation on magnet shape and thickness will be eliminated. This is accomplished by co-filling magnet and soft iron powders at specified locations in intricate shapes using specially designed dies and automatic powder filling station. The process fundamentals for accomplishing occurred under a previous Applied Technology Program titled, Motors and Generators for the 21st Century. New efficient motor designs that are not currently possible (or cost prohibitive) can be accomplished by this approach. Such an approach to motor fabrication opens up a new dimension in motor design. Feasibility Results We were able to optimize a IPMSM rotor to take advantage of the powder co-filling and DMC compaction processing methods. The minimum low speed torque requirement of 5 N-m can be met through an optimized design with magnet material having a Br capability of 0.2 T. This level of magnetic performance can

  1. SCIENCE BRIEF: ADVANCED CONCEPTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research on advanced concepts will evaluate and demonstrate the application of innovative infrastructure designs, management procedures and operational approaches. Advanced concepts go beyond simple asset management. The infusion of these advanced concepts into established wastew...

  2. 10% Tumor Diameter Shrinkage on the First Follow-Up Computed Tomography Predicts Clinical Outcome in Patients With Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma Treated With Angiogenesis Inhibitors: A Follow-Up Validation Study

    PubMed Central

    Franchetti, Yoko; Nishino, Mizuki; Fay, André P.; Ramaiya, Nikhil; Van den Abbeele, Annick D.; Choueiri, Toni K.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-targeted agents are standard therapies for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), associated with variable tumor shrinkage. Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) is of limited utility in this setting, and other imaging changes are sought to reliably predict outcome early. We aim to validate 10% tumor shrinkage as the best early indicator of outcome. Methods. In this institutional review board-approved, Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act-compliant study, 66 mRCC patients with 165 lesions on clinical trials of VEGF-targeted agents underwent thoracic and abdominal computed tomography at baseline and at first follow-up after therapy. Measurements were performed according to RECIST and tumor shrinkage of ≥10% decrease in sum of the longest diameter (−10%SLD). Correlation with time-to-treatment failure (TTF) and overall survival (OS) were compared and stratified by response to the radiologic criteria. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analysis yielded the optimal threshold change in SLD, defining patients with prolonged survival. Results. More than −10%SLD significantly differentiated responders from nonresponders (median TTF 8.4 vs. 4.1 months, p = .001), whereas partial response by RECIST did not (median TTF 6.9 vs. 5.5 months in responders vs. nonresponders, p = .34). −10%SLD was also significantly predictive of OS (median OS 35.1 vs. 15.0 months in responders vs. nonresponders, p = .003). ROC curve analysis yielded −9.3% in SLD as the optimal threshold for response/no response. Conclusion. Ten percent tumor shrinkage is validated as a reliable early predictor of outcome in mRCC patients receiving VEGF-targeted therapies and may provide a practical measure to guide therapeutic decisions. PMID:24755461

  3. New Advances in Chromosome Architecture.

    PubMed

    Leake, Mark C

    2016-01-01

    Our knowledge of the "architecture" of chromosomes has grown enormously in the past decade. This new insight has been enabled largely through advances in interdisciplinary research methods at the cutting-edge interface of the life and physical sciences. Importantly this has involved several state-of-the-art biophysical tools used in conjunction with molecular biology approaches which enable investigation of chromosome structure and function in living cells. Also, there are new and emerging interfacial science tools which enable significant improvements to the spatial and temporal resolution of quantitative measurements, such as in vivo super-resolution and powerful new single-molecule biophysics methods, which facilitate probing of dynamic chromosome processes hitherto impossible. And there are also important advances in the methods of theoretical biophysics which have enabled advances in predictive modeling of this high quality experimental data from molecular and physical biology to generate new understanding of the modes of operation of chromosomes, both in eukaryotic and prokaryotic cells. Here, I discuss these advances, and take stock on the current state of our knowledge of chromosome architecture and speculate where future advances may lead. PMID:27283297

  4. Regional Lymph Node Uptake of [18F]Fluorodeoxyglucose After Definitive Chemoradiation Therapy Predicts Local-Regional Failure of Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Results of ACRIN 6668/RTOG 0235

    PubMed Central

    Markovina, Stephanie; Duan, Fenghai; Snyder, Bradley S.; Siegel, Barry A.; Machtay, Mitchell; Bradley, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Purpose/Objective(s) ACRIN 6668/RTOG 0235 demonstrated that standardized uptake value (SUV) on post-treatment [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) correlates with survival in locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This secondary analysis determines if SUV of regional lymph nodes (RLNs) on post-treatment FDG-PET correlates with patient outcomes. Methods and Materials Included for analysis were patients treated with concurrent chemoradiation therapy using radiation doses ≥60 Gy, with identifiable FDG-avid RLNs (distinct from primary tumor) on pre-treatment FDG-PET, and post-treatment FDG-PET data. ACRIN Core Laboratory SUV measurements were used. Event time was calculated from the date of post-treatment FDG-PET. Local-regional failure was defined as failure within the treated RT volume and reported by the treating institution. Statistical analyses included Wilcoxon signed-rank test, Kaplan-Meier curves (log rank test), and Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. Results Of 234 trial-eligible patients, 139 (59%) had uptake in both primary tumor and RLNs on pre-treatment FDG-PET, and had SUV data from post-treatment FDG-PET. Maximum SUV was greater for primary tumor than for RLNs before treatment (p<0.001), but not different post-treatment (p=0.320). Post-treatment SUV of RLNs was not associated with overall survival. However, elevated post-treatment SUV of RLNs, both the absolute value and the percent residual activity compared to the pre-treatment SUV, were associated with inferior local-regional control (p<0.001). Conclusions High residual metabolic activity in RLNs on post-treatment FDG-PET is associated with worse local-regional control. Based on these data, future trials evaluating a radiotherapy boost should consider inclusion of both primary tumor and FDG-avid RLNs in the boost volume to maximize local-regional control. PMID:26461002

  5. Prospective Validation Obtained in a Similar Group of Patients and with Similar High Throughput Biological Tests Failed to Confirm Signatures for Prediction of Response to Chemotherapy and Survival in Advanced NSCLC: A Prospective Study from the European Lung Cancer Working Party

    PubMed Central

    Berghmans, Thierry; Ameye, Lieveke; Lafitte, Jean-Jacques; Colinet, Benoît; Cortot, Alexis; CsToth, Ingrid; Holbrechts, Stéphane; Lecomte, Jacques; Mascaux, Céline; Meert, Anne-Pascale; Paesmans, Marianne; Richez, Michel; Scherpereel, Arnaud; Tulippe, Christian; Willems, Luc; Dernies, Tiffany; Leclercq, Nathalie; Sculier, Jean-Paul

    2014-01-01

    Aim: Cisplatin doublets are standard 1st line treatment for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), without accurate predictor for response and survival, but important toxicity. Our aims were to identify predictive (for response) and prognostic (for survival) biological signatures in patients with NSCLC using messenger RNAs (mRNA) and miRNA expression. Methods: Patients with pathologically proven untreated NSCLC, receiving 1st line cisplatin–vinorelbine and with an assessable lesion were eligible. A bronchial biopsy was lysed into Tripure Isolation Reagent on ice, snap frozen, and stored at −80°C. mRNA expression was analyzed using microarrays Agilent Technologies. miRNA expression was assessed using TaqMan Low Density Arrays (756 human miR panel, Applied Biosystems). Validation was performed by RT-PCR on the selected genes. Survival was measured from the registration date and response assessed by WHO criteria. Results: Biopsies for transcriptomic analyses were obtained from 60 consecutive patients. No statistically significant differences were observed according to the main clinical characteristics, response rate (43 vs. 41%) or survival (median 25 vs. 29 months) between derivation and validation sets. In the derivation set (n = 38 patients), two mRNA and one miRNA predictive signatures for response were obtained. One mRNA and one miRNA prognostic signatures were derived from the first set, allowing an adequate distinction of patients with good and poor overall and progression-free survivals. None of these signatures could be validated in the validation set (n = 22 patients). Conclusion: In this prospective study with advanced NSCLC treated with cisplatin–vinorelbine, we were able to derive with high throughput techniques predictive and prognostic signatures based on transcriptomic analyses. However, these results could not be reproduced in an independent validation set. The role of miRNA and mRNA as predictive or prognostic factors remains a

  6. The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction.

    PubMed

    Bauer, Peter; Thorpe, Alan; Brunet, Gilbert

    2015-09-01

    Advances in numerical weather prediction represent a quiet revolution because they have resulted from a steady accumulation of scientific knowledge and technological advances over many years that, with only a few exceptions, have not been associated with the aura of fundamental physics breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the impact of numerical weather prediction is among the greatest of any area of physical science. As a computational problem, global weather prediction is comparable to the simulation of the human brain and of the evolution of the early Universe, and it is performed every day at major operational centres across the world.

  7. Eclipse prediction in Mesopotamia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steele, J. M.

    2000-02-01

    Among the many celestial phenomena observed in ancient Mesopotamia, eclipses, particularly eclipses of the Moon, were considered to be among the astrologically most significant events. In Babylon, by at least the middle of the seventh century BC, and probably as early as the middle of the eighth century BC, astronomical observations were being systematically conducted and recorded in a group of texts which we have come to call Astronomical Diaries. These Diaries contain many observations and predictions of eclipses. The predictions generally include the expected time of the eclipse, apparently calculated quite precisely. By the last three centuries BC, the Babylonian astronomers had developed highly advanced mathematical theories of the Moon and planets. This paper outlines the various methods which appear to have been formulated by the Mesopotamian astronomers to predict eclipses of the Sun and the Moon. It also considers the question of which of these methods were actually used in compiling the Astronomical Diaries, and speculates why these particular methods were used.

  8. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Advanced Seismic Soil Structure Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Bolisetti, Chandrakanth; Coleman, Justin Leigh

    2015-06-01

    Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in some instances the current SPRA approach has large uncertainties, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRA’s are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (this is the estimate of all likely damaging earthquakes at the site of interest) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, 2) fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and 3) systems analysis. Two areas where NLSSI effects may be important in SPRA calculations are, 1) when calculating in-structure response at the area of interest, and 2) calculation of seismic fragilities (current fragility calculations assume a lognormal distribution for probability of failure of components). Some important effects when using NLSSI in the SPRA calculation process include, 1) gapping and sliding, 2) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of foundations atop soil, 3) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of deeply embedded structures, 4) soil dilatancy, 5) soil liquefaction, 6) surface waves, 7) buoyancy, 8) concrete cracking and 9) seismic isolation The focus of the research task presented here-in is on implementation of NLSSI into the SPRA calculation process when calculating in-structure response at the area

  9. A Community Ice Sheet Model for Sea Level Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipscomb, William; Bindschadler, Robert; Bueler, Ed; Holland, David; Johnson, Jesse; Price, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Building a Next-Generation Community Ice Sheet Model; Los Alamos, New Mexico, 18-20 August 2008; Recent observations show that ice sheets can respond to climate change on annual to decadal timescales and that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. The current generation of ice sheet models cannot provide credible predictions of ice sheet retreat, as underscored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (2007). The IPCC provided neither a best estimate nor an upper bound for 21st-century sea level rise because of uncertainties in the dynamic response of ice sheets. In response to this need, a workshop was held at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The workshop was sponsored by the LANL Institute for Geophysics and Planetary Physics, with additional support from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Science Foundation. The workshop's goal was to create a detailed plan (including commitments from individual researchers) for developing, testing, and implementing a Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) to aid in predicting sea level rise. This model will be freely available to the glaciology and climate modeling communities and will be the ice sheet component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), a major contributor to IPCC assessments.

  10. ECLSS predictive monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.; Chien, Steve A.

    1991-01-01

    On Space Station Freedom (SSF), design iterations have made clear the need to keep the sensor complement small. Along with the unprecendented duration of the mission, it is imperative that decisions regarding placement of sensors be carefully examined and justified during the design phase. In the ECLSS Predictive Monitoring task, we are developing AI-based software to enable design engineers to evaluate alternate sensor configurations. Based on techniques from model-based reasoning and information theory, the software tool makes explicit the quantitative tradeoffs among competing sensor placements, and helps designers explore and justify placement decisions. This work is being applied to the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) testbed at MSFC to assist design personnel in placing sensors for test purposes to evaluate baseline configurations and ultimately to select advanced life support system technologies for evolutionary SSF.

  11. Challenges of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Colagrande, Stefano; Inghilesi, Andrea L; Aburas, Sami; Taliani, Gian G; Nardi, Cosimo; Marra, Fabio

    2016-09-14

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an aggressive malignancy, resulting as the third cause of death by cancer each year. The management of patients with HCC is complex, as both the tumour stage and any underlying liver disease must be considered conjointly. Although surveillance by imaging, clinical and biochemical parameters is routinely performed, a lot of patients suffering from cirrhosis have an advanced stage HCC at the first diagnosis. Advanced stage HCC includes heterogeneous groups of patients with different clinical condition and radiological features and sorafenib is the only approved treatment according to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer. Since the introduction of sorafenib in clinical practice, several phase III clinical trials have failed to demonstrate any superiority over sorafenib in the frontline setting. Loco-regional therapies have also been tested as first line treatment, but their role in advanced HCC is still matter of debate. No single agent or combination therapies have been shown to impact outcomes after sorafenib failure. Therefore this review will focus on the range of experimental therapeutics for patients with advanced HCC and highlights the successes and failures of these treatments as well as areas for future development. Specifics such as dose limiting toxicity and safety profile in patients with liver dysfunction related to the underlying chronic liver disease should be considered when developing therapies in HCC. Finally, robust validated and reproducible surrogate end-points as well as predictive biomarkers should be defined in future randomized trials. PMID:27678348

  12. Challenges of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Colagrande, Stefano; Inghilesi, Andrea L; Aburas, Sami; Taliani, Gian G; Nardi, Cosimo; Marra, Fabio

    2016-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an aggressive malignancy, resulting as the third cause of death by cancer each year. The management of patients with HCC is complex, as both the tumour stage and any underlying liver disease must be considered conjointly. Although surveillance by imaging, clinical and biochemical parameters is routinely performed, a lot of patients suffering from cirrhosis have an advanced stage HCC at the first diagnosis. Advanced stage HCC includes heterogeneous groups of patients with different clinical condition and radiological features and sorafenib is the only approved treatment according to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer. Since the introduction of sorafenib in clinical practice, several phase III clinical trials have failed to demonstrate any superiority over sorafenib in the frontline setting. Loco-regional therapies have also been tested as first line treatment, but their role in advanced HCC is still matter of debate. No single agent or combination therapies have been shown to impact outcomes after sorafenib failure. Therefore this review will focus on the range of experimental therapeutics for patients with advanced HCC and highlights the successes and failures of these treatments as well as areas for future development. Specifics such as dose limiting toxicity and safety profile in patients with liver dysfunction related to the underlying chronic liver disease should be considered when developing therapies in HCC. Finally, robust validated and reproducible surrogate end-points as well as predictive biomarkers should be defined in future randomized trials.

  13. Challenges of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Colagrande, Stefano; Inghilesi, Andrea L; Aburas, Sami; Taliani, Gian G; Nardi, Cosimo; Marra, Fabio

    2016-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an aggressive malignancy, resulting as the third cause of death by cancer each year. The management of patients with HCC is complex, as both the tumour stage and any underlying liver disease must be considered conjointly. Although surveillance by imaging, clinical and biochemical parameters is routinely performed, a lot of patients suffering from cirrhosis have an advanced stage HCC at the first diagnosis. Advanced stage HCC includes heterogeneous groups of patients with different clinical condition and radiological features and sorafenib is the only approved treatment according to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer. Since the introduction of sorafenib in clinical practice, several phase III clinical trials have failed to demonstrate any superiority over sorafenib in the frontline setting. Loco-regional therapies have also been tested as first line treatment, but their role in advanced HCC is still matter of debate. No single agent or combination therapies have been shown to impact outcomes after sorafenib failure. Therefore this review will focus on the range of experimental therapeutics for patients with advanced HCC and highlights the successes and failures of these treatments as well as areas for future development. Specifics such as dose limiting toxicity and safety profile in patients with liver dysfunction related to the underlying chronic liver disease should be considered when developing therapies in HCC. Finally, robust validated and reproducible surrogate end-points as well as predictive biomarkers should be defined in future randomized trials. PMID:27678348

  14. Advances in traction drive technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loewenthal, S. H.; Anderson, N. E.; Rohn, D. A.

    1983-01-01

    Traction drives are traced from early uses as main transmissions in automobiles at the turn of the century to modern, high-powered traction drives capable of transmitting hundreds of horsepower. Recent advances in technology are described which enable today's traction drive to be a serious candidate for off-highway vehicles and helicopter applications. Improvements in materials, traction fluids, design techniques, power loss and life prediction methods will be highlighted. Performance characteristics of the Nasvytis fixed-ratio drive are given. Promising future drive applications, such as helicopter main transmissions and servo-control positioning mechanisms are also addressed.

  15. Advanced flight control system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hartmann, G. L.; Wall, J. E., Jr.; Rang, E. R.; Lee, H. P.; Schulte, R. W.; Ng, W. K.

    1982-01-01

    A fly by wire flight control system architecture designed for high reliability includes spare sensor and computer elements to permit safe dispatch with failed elements, thereby reducing unscheduled maintenance. A methodology capable of demonstrating that the architecture does achieve the predicted performance characteristics consists of a hierarchy of activities ranging from analytical calculations of system reliability and formal methods of software verification to iron bird testing followed by flight evaluation. Interfacing this architecture to the Lockheed S-3A aircraft for flight test is discussed. This testbed vehicle can be expanded to support flight experiments in advanced aerodynamics, electromechanical actuators, secondary power systems, flight management, new displays, and air traffic control concepts.

  16. Aeroacoustic Prediction Codes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gliebe, P; Mani, R.; Shin, H.; Mitchell, B.; Ashford, G.; Salamah, S.; Connell, S.; Huff, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    This report describes work performed on Contract NAS3-27720AoI 13 as part of the NASA Advanced Subsonic Transport (AST) Noise Reduction Technology effort. Computer codes were developed to provide quantitative prediction, design, and analysis capability for several aircraft engine noise sources. The objective was to provide improved, physics-based tools for exploration of noise-reduction concepts and understanding of experimental results. Methods and codes focused on fan broadband and 'buzz saw' noise and on low-emissions combustor noise and compliment work done by other contractors under the NASA AST program to develop methods and codes for fan harmonic tone noise and jet noise. The methods and codes developed and reported herein employ a wide range of approaches, from the strictly empirical to the completely computational, with some being semiempirical analytical, and/or analytical/computational. Emphasis was on capturing the essential physics while still considering method or code utility as a practical design and analysis tool for everyday engineering use. Codes and prediction models were developed for: (1) an improved empirical correlation model for fan rotor exit flow mean and turbulence properties, for use in predicting broadband noise generated by rotor exit flow turbulence interaction with downstream stator vanes: (2) fan broadband noise models for rotor and stator/turbulence interaction sources including 3D effects, noncompact-source effects. directivity modeling, and extensions to the rotor supersonic tip-speed regime; (3) fan multiple-pure-tone in-duct sound pressure prediction methodology based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis; and (4) low-emissions combustor prediction methodology and computer code based on CFD and actuator disk theory. In addition. the relative importance of dipole and quadrupole source mechanisms was studied using direct CFD source computation for a simple cascadeigust interaction problem, and an empirical combustor

  17. Advanced planetary studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Results of planetary advanced studies and planning support are summarized. The scope of analyses includes cost estimation research, planetary mission performance, penetrator advanced studies, Mercury mission transport requirements, definition of super solar electric propulsion/solar sail mission discriminators, and advanced planning activities.

  18. Hybrid and Electric Advanced Vehicle Systems Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beach, R. F.; Hammond, R. A.; Mcgehee, R. K.

    1985-01-01

    Predefined components connected to represent wide variety of propulsion systems. Hybrid and Electric Advanced Vehicle System (HEAVY) computer program is flexible tool for evaluating performance and cost of electric and hybrid vehicle propulsion systems. Allows designer to quickly, conveniently, and economically predict performance of proposed drive train.

  19. Advancing Paternal Age and Simplex Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puleo, Connor Morrow; Schmeidler, James; Reichenberg, Abraham; Kolevzon, Alexander; Soorya, Latha V.; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Silverman, Jeremy M.

    2012-01-01

    De novo events appear more common in female and simplex autism spectrum disorder (ASD) cases and may underlie greater ASD risk in older fathers' offspring. This study examined whether advancing paternal age predicts an increase in simplex (n = 90) versus multiplex ASD cases (n = 587) in 677 participants (340 families). Whether or not controlling…

  20. Recent advances in computational aerodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agarwal, Ramesh K.; Desse, Jerry E.

    1991-04-01

    The current state of the art in computational aerodynamics is described. Recent advances in the discretization of surface geometry, grid generation, and flow simulation algorithms have led to flowfield predictions for increasingly complex and realistic configurations. As a result, computational aerodynamics is emerging as a crucial enabling technology for the development and design of flight vehicles. Examples illustrating the current capability for the prediction of aircraft, launch vehicle and helicopter flowfields are presented. Unfortunately, accurate modeling of turbulence remains a major difficulty in the analysis of viscosity-dominated flows. In the future inverse design methods, multidisciplinary design optimization methods, artificial intelligence technology and massively parallel computer technology will be incorporated into computational aerodynamics, opening up greater opportunities for improved product design at substantially reduced costs.

  1. Shock-loading response of advanced materials

    SciTech Connect

    Gray, G.T. III

    1993-08-01

    Advanced materials, such as composites (metal, ceramic, or polymer-matrix), intermetallics, foams (metallic or polymeric-based), laminated materials, and nanostructured materials are receiving increasing attention because their properties can be custom tailored specific applications. The high-rate/impact response of advanced materials is relevant to a broad range of service environments such as the crashworthiness of civilian/military vehicles, foreign-object-damage in aerospace, and light-weight armor. Increased utilization of these material classes under dynamic loading conditions requires an understanding of the relationship between high-rate/shock-wave response as a function of microstructure if we are to develop models to predict material behavior. In this paper the issues relevant to defect generation, storage, and the underlying physical basis needed in predictive models for several advanced materials will be reviewed.

  2. Advanced midwifery practice or advancing midwifery practice?

    PubMed

    Smith, Rachel; Leap, Nicky; Homer, Caroline

    2010-09-01

    Advanced midwifery practice is a controversial notion in midwifery, particularly at present in Australia. The proposed changes in legislation around access to the publicly funded Medical Benefits Scheme (MBS) and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) in 2009-2010 have meant that the issue of advanced midwifery practice has again taken prominence. Linking midwifery access to MBS and PBS to a safety and quality framework that includes an 'advanced midwifery credentialling framework' is particularly challenging. The Haxton and Fahy paper in the December 2009 edition of Women and Birth is timely as it enables a reflection upon these issues and encourages debate and discussion about exactly what is midwifery, what are we educating our students for and is working to the full scope of practice practising at advanced level? This paper seeks to address some of these questions and open up the topic for further debate.

  3. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  4. Resampling Gaged Networks to Provide Uncertainty Estimates for Daily Streamflow Predictions in Ungaged Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farmer, W. H.; Over, T. M.; Vogel, R. M.; Archfield, S. A.; Kiang, J. E.

    2014-12-01

    In ungaged basins, predictions of daily streamflow are essential to responsible and effective management and design of water resources systems. Transfer-based methods are widely used for prediction in ungaged basins (PUB) within a gaged network. Such methods rely on the transfer of information from an index gage to an ungaged site. In what is known as the nearest-neighbor algorithm, the index gage is selected based on geospatial proximity. The predictions offered by any PUB method can be highly uncertain, and it is often difficult to characterize this uncertainty. In the development of predicted streamflow records, understanding the uncertainty of estimates would greatly improve water resources management in ungaged basins. It is proposed that by resampling the sites of the gaged network, with replacement, a set of equally-probable streamflow predictions can be produced for any ungaged site. For a particular day in the record, the percentiles of the distribution of the resampled, predicted streamflows can be used to estimate confidence intervals of the original daily streamflow predictions. This approach is explored in the Southeast United States with a nearest-neighbor application of non-linear spatial interpolation using flow duration curves (QPPQ), a common PUB method. Though some interval re-centering is required to ensure that the best-case prediction falls within the confidence intervals, it is shown that this technique provides a reasonable first-order approximation of prediction uncertainty. Still, the best estimated confidence intervals are shown to consistently under-estimate the nominal confidence. It is hypothesized that this interval contraction is a result of temporal and spatial correlation within the gaged network. Additionally, implications of prediction uncertainty are explored and alternative estimators are considered.

  5. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  6. Recent advances in elastomer service-life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landel, R. F.; Fedors, R. F.; Moacanin, J.

    1973-01-01

    The mechanical properties of an elastomer, including rupture and its time dependence, are defined uniquely by a tensile property surface in normalized stress-strain-time coordinates. In practice, the property surface is determined from short-time constant strain-rate uniaxial tests. By using the time reduction properties of both temperature and cross-link density, an effective time scale of over ten decades of log time can be covered. Changes in cross-link density, filler content, or swelling do not affect the limits of the property surface when plotted in logarithmic coordinates but merely shift their positions. The shape, however, may be modified in certain cases. The service life of an elastomer in the absence of aging reactions can be estimated from the property surface and expected in-use conditions such as strains (static or dynamic).

  7. Advancing Prediction of Foster Placement Disruption Using Brief Behavioral Screening

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hurlburt, Michael S.; Chamberlain, Patricia; DeGarmo, David; Zhang, Jinjin; Price, Joe M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Behavioral difficulties increase the risk that children will experience negative placement disruptions while in foster care. Chamberlain et al. (2006) found that the Parent Daily Report (PDR), a brief measure of parent-reported child behaviors, was a strong predictor of negative placement changes over 1 year among children receiving…

  8. Recent advancements in toxicity prediction following prostate cancer radiotherapy.

    PubMed

    Ospina, J D; Fargeas, A; Dréan, G; Simon, A; Acosta, O; de Crevoisier, R

    2015-01-01

    In external beam radiotherapy for prostate cancer limiting toxicities for dose escalation are bladder and rectum toxicities. Normal tissue complication probability models aim at quantifying the risk of developping adverse events following radiotherapy. These models, originally proposed in the context of uniform irradiation, have evolved to implementations based on the state-of-the-art classification methods which are trained using empirical data. Recently, the use of image processing techniques combined with population analysis methods has led to a new generation of models to understand the risk of normal tissue complications following radiotherapy. This paper overviews those methods in the case of prostate cancer radiation therapy and propose some lines of future research.

  9. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    SciTech Connect

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A.

    1995-12-31

    Emphasis is placed on life characterization based on low cycle fatigue under isothermal conditions and thermomechanical fatigue. Microstructure of failed coated and uncoated specimens is being analyzed. IN 738 LC is the material; the coating is either overlay (NiCoCrAly) or NiAl-based aluminide.

  10. Advances in the analysis and prediction of turbulent viscoelastic flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gatski, T. B.; Thais, L.; Mompean, G.

    2014-08-01

    It has been well-known for over six decades that the addition of minute amounts of long polymer chains to organic solvents, or water, can lead to significant turbulent drag reduction. This discovery has had many practical applications such as in pipeline fluid transport, oil well operations, vehicle design and submersible vehicle projectiles, and more recently arteriosclerosis treatment. However, it has only been the last twenty-five years that the full utilization of direct numerical simulation of such turbulent viscoelastic flows has been achieved. The unique characteristics of viscoelastic fluid flow are dictated by the nonlinear differential relationship between the flow strain rate field and the extra-stress induced by the additive polymer. A primary motivation for the analysis of these turbulent fluid flows is the understanding of the effect on the dynamic transfer of energy in the turbulent flow due to the presence of the extra-stress field induced by the presence of the viscoelastic polymer chain. Such analyses now utilize direct numerical simulation data of fully developed channel flow for the FENE-P (Finite Extendable Nonlinear Elastic - Peterlin) fluid model. Such multi-scale dynamics suggests an analysis of the transfer of energy between the various component motions that include the turbulent kinetic energy, and the mean polymeric and elastic potential energies. It is shown that the primary effect of the interaction between the turbulent and polymeric fields is to transfer energy from the turbulence to the polymer.

  11. Damage Prediction Models for Advanced Materials and Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xie, Ming; Ahmad, Jalees; Grady, Joseph E. (Technical Monitor)

    2005-01-01

    In the present study, the assessment and evaluation of various acoustic tile designs were conducted using three-dimensional finite element analysis, which included static analysis, thermal analysis and modal analysis of integral and non-integral tile design options. Various benchmark specimens for acoustic tile designs, including CMC integral T-joint and notched CMC plate, were tested in both room and elevated temperature environment. Various candidate ceramic matrix composite materials were used in the numerical modeling and experimental study. The research effort in this program evolved from numerical modeling and concept design to a combined numerical analysis and experimental study. Many subjects associated with the design and performance of the acoustic tile in jet engine exhaust nozzle have been investigated.

  12. Measurement and modeling of advanced coal conversion processes

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, P.R.; Serio, M.A.; Hamblen, D.G.; Smoot, L.D.; Brewster, B.S. Brigham Young Univ., Provo, UT )

    1991-01-01

    The overall objective of this program is the development of predictive capability for the design, scale up, simulation, control and feedstock evaluation in advanced coal conversion devices. This program will merge significant advances made in measuring and quantitatively describing the mechanisms in coal conversion behavior. Comprehensive computer codes for mechanistic modeling of entrained-bed gasification. Additional capabilities in predicting pollutant formation will be implemented and the technology will be expanded to fixed-bed reactors.

  13. [Latest advances in chronic pancreatitis].

    PubMed

    Domínguez-Muñoz, J Enrique

    2014-09-01

    This article summarizes some of the recent and clinically relevant advances in chronic pancreatitis. These advances mainly concern the early diagnosis of the disease, the prediction of the fibrosis degree of the gland, the evaluation of patients with asymptomatic hyperenzimemia, the medical and surgical treatment of abdominal pain and the knowledge of the natural history of the autoimmune pancreatitis. In patients with indetermined EUS findings of chronic pancreatitis, a new endoscopic ultrasound examination in the follow-up is of help to confirm or to exclude the disease. Smoking, number of relapses, results of pancreatic function tests and EUS findings allow predicting the degree of pancreatic fibrosis in patients with chronic pancreatitis. Antioxidant therapy has shown to be effective in reducing pain secondary to chronic pancreatitis, although the type and optimal dose of antioxidants remains to be elucidated. Development of intestinal bacterial overgrowth is frequent in patients with chronic pancreatitis, but its impact on symptoms is unknown and deserves further investigations. Finally, autoimmune pancreatitis relapses in about half of the patients with either type 1 or type 2 disease; relapses frequently occur within the first two years of follow-up.

  14. A correlational approach to predicting operator status

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shingledecker, Clark A.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses a research approach for identifying and validating candidate physiological and behavioral parameters which can be used to predict the performance capabilities of aircrew and other system operators. In this methodology, concurrent and advance correlations are computed between predictor values and criterion performance measures. Continuous performance and sleep loss are used as stressors to promote performance variation. Preliminary data are presented which suggest dependence of prediction capability on the resource allocation policy of the operator.

  15. ADVANCED TURBINE SYSTEMS PROGRAM

    SciTech Connect

    Sy Ali

    2002-03-01

    The market for power generation equipment is undergoing a tremendous transformation. The traditional electric utility industry is restructuring, promising new opportunities and challenges for all facilities to meet their demands for electric and thermal energy. Now more than ever, facilities have a host of options to choose from, including new distributed generation (DG) technologies that are entering the market as well as existing DG options that are improving in cost and performance. The market is beginning to recognize that some of these users have needs beyond traditional grid-based power. Together, these changes are motivating commercial and industrial facilities to re-evaluate their current mix of energy services. One of the emerging generating options is a new breed of advanced fuel cells. While there are a variety of fuel cell technologies being developed, the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) and molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFC) are especially promising, with their electric efficiency expected around 50-60 percent and their ability to generate either hot water or high quality steam. In addition, they both have the attractive characteristics of all fuel cells--relatively small siting footprint, rapid response to changing loads, very low emissions, quiet operation, and an inherently modular design lending itself to capacity expansion at predictable unit cost with reasonably short lead times. The objectives of this project are to:(1) Estimate the market potential for high efficiency fuel cell hybrids in the U.S.;(2) Segment market size by commercial, industrial, and other key markets;(3) Identify and evaluate potential early adopters; and(4) Develop results that will help prioritize and target future R&D investments. The study focuses on high efficiency MCFC- and SOFC-based hybrids and competing systems such as gas turbines, reciprocating engines, fuel cells and traditional grid service. Specific regions in the country have been identified where these

  16. Atlantic opportunities for ENSO prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    del Rey, Marta Martin; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Polo, Irene

    2015-04-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical climate variability with worldwide impacts. Major advances in ENSO research have been done in the last decades, focusing on the mechanisms involved in its onset and development, as well as, its global climate teleconnections. Although modelling efforts have been made in ENSO forecast, the prediction of these episodes still remains a challenge for the scientific community. Recent studies put forward the role of extra-tropical and tropical regions as precursors of ENSO, but these teleconnections have changed along the 20th century. In particular, an Atlantic Niño precedes the development of a Pacific La Niña (and vice versa) 6 months in advance, taking part of an air-sea coupled mode of variability which only shows up during negative phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The non-stationarity of this mode opens window opportunities for ENSO forecast, using the Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the predictor field. Here, we present for the first time a statistical crossvalidated hindcast of ENSO events based on an Extended Multiple Maximum Covariance Analysis (EMMCA). This method considers a unique predictor field, the summer Atlantic SSTs, and a set of predictant fields in different regions and seasons, according to the Atlantic-Pacific mechanism. The predicted tropical Pacific variables involved in ENSO development, show a good agreement with the observed ones during negative AMO phases, with a remarkable increase of the predictability skill based on correlations. During those negative AMO decades, the hindcast reproduces quite well the observed Atlantic-modulated ENSO episodes, but with stronger signal than observations. This AMO-dependency of the ENSO predictability could help to resolve some open questions about the seasonal to decadal ENSO forecast and its impacts.

  17. Advance care planning.

    PubMed

    Lo, Bernard

    2004-01-01

    Advance directives allow patients to have some control over decisions even when they are no longer able to make decisions themselves. All states authorize written advance directives, such as the appointment of a health care proxy, but commonly impose procedural requirements. Some states have restricted the use of oral advance directives, although they are frequently used in everyday practice. Advance directives are limited because they are infrequently used, may not be informed, and may conflict with the patient's current best interests. Moreover, surrogates often cannot state patients' preferences accurately. Furthermore, discussions among physicians and patients about advance directives are flawed. Physicians can improve discussions about advance directives by asking the patient who should serve as proxy and by ascertaining the patient's values and general preferences before discussing specific clinical situations. PMID:15538068

  18. Hydromechanical Advanced Coal Excavator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estus, Jay M.; Summers, David

    1990-01-01

    Water-jet cutting reduces coal dust and its hazards. Advanced mining system utilizes full-face, hydromechanical, continuous miner. Coal excavator uses high-pressure water-jet lances, one in each of cutting heads and one in movable lance, to make cuts across top, bottom and middle height, respectively, of coal face. Wedge-shaped cutting heads advance into lower and upper cuts in turn, thereby breaking coal toward middle cut. Thrust cylinders and walking pads advance excavator toward coal face.

  19. Advanced Turbofan Duct Liner Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bielak, Gerald W.; Premo, John W.; Hersh, Alan S.

    1999-01-01

    The Advanced Subsonic Technology Noise Reduction Program goal is to reduce aircraft noise by 10 EPNdB by the year 2000 relative, to 1992 technology. The improvement goal for nacelle attenuation is 25% relative to 1992 technology by 1997 and 50% by 2000. The Advanced Turbofan Duct Liner Concepts Task work by Boeing presented in this document was in support of these goals. The basis for the technical approach was a Boeing study conducted in 1993-94 under NASA/FAA contract NAS1-19349, Task 6, investigating broadband acoustic liner concepts. As a result of this work, it was recommended that linear double layer, linear and perforate triple layer, parallel element, and bulk absorber liners be further investigated to improve nacelle attenuations. NASA LaRC also suggested that "adaptive" liner concepts that would allow "in-situ" acoustic impedance control also be considered. As a result, bias flow and high-temperature liner concepts were also added to the investigation. The major conclusion from the above studies is that improvements in nacelle liner average acoustic impedance characteristics alone will not result in 25% increased nacelle noise reduction relative to 1992 technology. Nacelle design advancements currently being developed by Boeing are expected to add 20-40% more acoustic lining to hardwall regions in current inlets, which is predicted to result in and additional 40-80% attenuation improvement. Similar advancements are expected to allow 10-30% more acoustic lining in current fan ducts with 10-30% more attenuation expected. In addition, Boeing is currently developing a scarf inlet concept which is expected to give an additional 40-80% attenuation improvement for equivalent lining areas.

  20. Advancing the educational agenda.

    PubMed

    Baker, Cynthia

    2010-12-01

    This timely paper provides a thought-provoking analysis of current advanced practice nursing education in Canada. It comes at a critical juncture in the evolution of Canadian healthcare services and the redefinition of nursing roles. Increasingly, multiple sectors of society are calling for more nurses with advanced practice preparation and for a wider range of advanced practice nursing specialties. Advanced practice nurses (APNs) are being proposed as a solution to a financially overburdened national healthcare system, the increasing complexity of healthcare services, and a crisis in access to primary healthcare. Thus, governments seeking greater fiscal efficiency, medical specialists needing sophisticated collaborative support, and healthcare consumers see APNs as the way forward.

  1. ADVANCED CUTTINGS TRANSPORT STUDY

    SciTech Connect

    Stefan Miska; Troy Reed; Ergun Kuru

    2004-09-30

    The Advanced Cuttings Transport Study (ACTS) was a 5-year JIP project undertaken at the University of Tulsa (TU). The project was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and JIP member companies. The objectives of the project were: (1) to develop and construct a new research facility that would allow three-phase (gas, liquid and cuttings) flow experiments under ambient and EPET (elevated pressure and temperature) conditions, and at different angle of inclinations and drill pipe rotation speeds; (2) to conduct experiments and develop a data base for the industry and academia; and (3) to develop mechanistic models for optimization of drilling hydraulics and cuttings transport. This project consisted of research studies, flow loop construction and instrumentation development. Following a one-year period for basic flow loop construction, a proposal was submitted by TU to the DOE for a five-year project that was organized in such a manner as to provide a logical progression of research experiments as well as additions to the basic flow loop. The flow loop additions and improvements included: (1) elevated temperature capability; (2) two-phase (gas and liquid, foam etc.) capability; (3) cuttings injection and removal system; (4) drill pipe rotation system; and (5) drilling section elevation system. In parallel with the flow loop construction, hydraulics and cuttings transport studies were preformed using drilling foams and aerated muds. In addition, hydraulics and rheology of synthetic drilling fluids were investigated. The studies were performed under ambient and EPET conditions. The effects of temperature and pressure on the hydraulics and cuttings transport were investigated. Mechanistic models were developed to predict frictional pressure loss and cuttings transport in horizontal and near-horizontal configurations. Model predictions were compared with the measured data. Predominantly, model predictions show satisfactory agreements with the measured data. As a

  2. Research needs in aircraft noise prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raney, J. P.

    1975-01-01

    Progress needed in understanding the mechanisms of aircraft noise generation and propagation is outlined using the focus provided by the need to predict accurately the noise produced and received at the ground by an aircraft operating in the vicinity of an airport. The components of internal engine noise generation, jet exhaust, airframe noise and shielding and configuration effects, and the roles of atmospheric propagation and ground noise attenuation are presented and related to the prediction problem. The role of NASA in providing the focus and direction for needed advances is discussed, and possible contributions of the academic community in helping to fulfill the needs for accurate aircraft noise prediction methods are suggested.

  3. Advanced direct methanol fuel cells. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hamdan, Monjid; Kosek, John A.

    1999-11-01

    The goal of the program was an advanced proton-exchange membrane (PEM) for use as the electrolyte in a liquid feed direct methanol fuel cell which provides reduced methanol crossover while simultaneously providing high conductivity and low membrane water content. The approach was to use a membrane containing precross-linked fluorinated base polymer films and subsequently to graft the base film with selected materials. Over 80 different membranes were prepared. The rate of methanol crossover through the advanced membranes was reduced 90%. A 5-cell stack provided stable performance over a 100-hour life test. Preliminary cost estimates predicted a manufacturing cost at $4 to $9 per kW.

  4. ADVANCED SEISMIC BASE ISOLATION METHODS FOR MODULAR REACTORS

    SciTech Connect

    E. Blanford; E. Keldrauk; M. Laufer; M. Mieler; J. Wei; B. Stojadinovic; P.F. Peterson

    2010-09-20

    Advanced technologies for structural design and construction have the potential for major impact not only on nuclear power plant construction time and cost, but also on the design process and on the safety, security and reliability of next generation of nuclear power plants. In future Generation IV (Gen IV) reactors, structural and seismic design should be much more closely integrated with the design of nuclear and industrial safety systems, physical security systems, and international safeguards systems. Overall reliability will be increased, through the use of replaceable and modular equipment, and through design to facilitate on-line monitoring, in-service inspection, maintenance, replacement, and decommissioning. Economics will also receive high design priority, through integrated engineering efforts to optimize building arrangements to minimize building heights and footprints. Finally, the licensing approach will be transformed by becoming increasingly performance based and technology neutral, using best-estimate simulation methods with uncertainty and margin quantification. In this context, two structural engineering technologies, seismic base isolation and modular steel-plate/concrete composite structural walls, are investigated. These technologies have major potential to (1) enable standardized reactor designs to be deployed across a wider range of sites, (2) reduce the impact of uncertainties related to site-specific seismic conditions, and (3) alleviate reactor equipment qualification requirements. For Gen IV reactors the potential for deliberate crashes of large aircraft must also be considered in design. This report concludes that base-isolated structures should be decoupled from the reactor external event exclusion system. As an example, a scoping analysis is performed for a rectangular, decoupled external event shell designed as a grillage. This report also reviews modular construction technology, particularly steel-plate/concrete construction using

  5. Vertical Lip Position and Thickness in Facial Reconstruction: A Validation of Commonly Used Methods for Predicting the Position and Size of Lips.

    PubMed

    Zednikova Mala, Pavla; Veleminska, Jana

    2016-07-01

    This study examined several methods used to estimate oral fissure position, lip margin position, and lip thickness recommended by Angel, George, Lebedinskaya, Taylor, Wilkinson et al., Balueva and Veselovskaya. A sample of 86 lateral head cephalograms of adult subjects from central Europe were measured and the actual and predicted dimensions were compared. The best estimation for oral fissure position was "opposite the lower ¾ mark of maxillary incisors" (error of 1.3 mm). Upper lip margin was predicted best by "upper ¼ mark of maxillary incisors" (error of 1.7 mm), and lower lip margin by "cementum-enamel junction of mandibular incisors" (error of 2.3 mm). The regression equations of Wilkinson et al. displayed least error (1.3 mm and 1.8 mm, respectively) for upper and lower lip thickness, and method of George (error of 3.4 mm) for total lip thickness. PMID:27364286

  6. Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Theresa F.

    In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

  7. Advanced Manufacturing Technologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fikes, John

    2016-01-01

    Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMT) is developing and maturing innovative and advanced manufacturing technologies that will enable more capable and lower-cost spacecraft, launch vehicles and infrastructure to enable exploration missions. The technologies will utilize cutting edge materials and emerging capabilities including metallic processes, additive manufacturing, composites, and digital manufacturing. The AMT project supports the National Manufacturing Initiative involving collaboration with other government agencies.

  8. Drilling at Advanced Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Case, Doug

    1977-01-01

    Instances where drilling is useful for advanced language are discussed. Several types of drills are recommended, with the philosophy that advanced level drills should have a lighter style and be regarded as a useful, occasional means of practicing individual new items. (CHK)

  9. ADVANCED PLACEMENT IN OHIO.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio Council on Advanced Placement, Columbus.

    THE DOCUMENT PRESENTS A DESCRIPTION OF THE ADVANCED PLACEMENT PROGRAM IN OHIO. ANSWERS ARE GIVEN TO KEY QUESTIONS ON THE FUNCTION OF ADVANCED PLACEMENT, ACADEMIC AREAS COVERED, PROGRAM ADMINISTRATION, COSTS, BENEFITS, VARIOUS ORGANIZATIONAL PATTERNS, STUDENT PARTICIPANTS, COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES IN OHIO AND REPRESENTATIVE NATIONAL INSTITUTIONS…

  10. Kansas Advanced Semiconductor Project

    SciTech Connect

    Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Bolton, T.; Horton-Smith, G.; Maravin, Y.; Ratra, B.; Stanton, N.; von Toerne, E.; Wilson, G.

    2007-09-21

    KASP (Kansas Advanced Semiconductor Project) completed the new Layer 0 upgrade for D0, assumed key electronics projects for the US CMS project, finished important new physics measurements with the D0 experiment at Fermilab, made substantial contributions to detector studies for the proposed e+e- international linear collider (ILC), and advanced key initiatives in non-accelerator-based neutrino physics.

  11. Advanced cryo propulsion systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tabata, William K.

    1991-01-01

    The following topics are presented in viewgraph form: (1) advanced space engine (ASE) chronology; (2) an ASE description; (3) a single expander; (4) a dual expander; (5) split expander; (6) launch vehicle start; (7) space start; (8) chemical transfer propulsion; and (9) an advanced expander test bed.

  12. Advanced Engineering Fibers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edie, Dan D.; Dunham, Michael G.

    1987-01-01

    Describes Clemson University's Advanced Engineered Fibers Laboratory, which was established to provide national leadership and expertise in developing the processing equipment and advance fibers necessary for the chemical, fiber, and textile industries to enter the composite materials market. Discusses some of the laboratory's activities in…

  13. Advanced Life Support

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chambliss, Joe

    2004-01-01

    Viewgraphs on Advanced Life Support (ALS) Systems are presented. The topics include: 1) Fundamental Need for Advanced Life Support; 2) ALS organization; 3) Requirements and Rationale; 4) Past Integrated tests; 5) The need for improvements in life support systems; 6) ALS approach to meet exploration goals; 7) ALS Projects showing promise to meet exploration goals; and 9) GRC involvement in ALS.

  14. THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF OHL'S PRECURSOR METHOD

    SciTech Connect

    Du, Z. L.; Wang, H. N.; Li, R.

    2009-12-15

    Using linear regression techniques and correlation analysis, the predictive power of Ohl's method is shown to satisfy one of the following relationships. Either a successful prediction of cycle amplitude can be obtained if the correlation between the minimum aa geomagnetic index in the declining phase of a solar cycle and the sunspot maximum of the succeeding cycle becomes stronger, or the prediction error exceeds the expected prediction error if the correlation becomes weaker. The correlation coefficient has a declining secular variation, which leads to a weakening trend in predictive power, as well as a 44 year periodicity that may explain why the prediction method did not work well for solar cycle 23. As this finding only emerged twice in the {approx}100 year period studied, this 44 year periodicity may occur with a degree of uncertainty and may therefore need to be checked in the future. Two quantities, namely a prediction parameter and the prediction index, are proposed to analyze predictive power. Using the above properties, the success probability of a prediction result can be analyzed in advance.

  15. Advanced Hydrogen Turbine Development

    SciTech Connect

    Joesph Fadok

    2008-01-01

    Siemens has developed a roadmap to achieve the DOE goals for efficiency, cost reduction, and emissions through innovative approaches and novel technologies which build upon worldwide IGCC operational experience, platform technology, and extensive experience in G-class operating conditions. In Phase 1, the technologies and concepts necessary to achieve the program goals were identified for the gas turbine components and supporting technology areas and testing plans were developed to mitigate identified risks. Multiple studies were conducted to evaluate the impact in plant performance of different gas turbine and plant technologies. 2015 gas turbine technologies showed a significant improvement in IGCC plant efficiency, however, a severe performance penalty was calculated for high carbon capture cases. Thermodynamic calculations showed that the DOE 2010 and 2015 efficiency targets can be met with a two step approach. A risk management process was instituted in Phase 1 to identify risk and develop mitigation plans. For the risks identified, testing and development programs are in place and the risks will be revisited periodically to determine if changes to the plan are necessary. A compressor performance prediction has shown that the design of the compressor for the engine can be achieved with additional stages added to the rear of the compressor. Tip clearance effects were studied as well as a range of flow and pressure ratios to evaluate the impacts to both performance and stability. Considerable data was obtained on the four candidate combustion systems: diffusion, catalytic, premix, and distributed combustion. Based on the results of Phase 1, the premixed combustion system and the distributed combustion system were chosen as having the most potential and will be the focus of Phase 2 of the program. Significant progress was also made in obtaining combustion kinetics data for high hydrogen fuels. The Phase 1 turbine studies indicate initial feasibility of the

  16. Advanced Chemical Propulsion Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woodcock, Gordon; Byers, Dave; Alexander, Leslie A.; Krebsbach, Al

    2004-01-01

    A study was performed of advanced chemical propulsion technology application to space science (Code S) missions. The purpose was to begin the process of selecting chemical propulsion technology advancement activities that would provide greatest benefits to Code S missions. Several missions were selected from Code S planning data, and a range of advanced chemical propulsion options was analyzed to assess capabilities and benefits re these missions. Selected beneficial applications were found for higher-performing bipropellants, gelled propellants, and cryogenic propellants. Technology advancement recommendations included cryocoolers and small turbopump engines for cryogenic propellants; space storable propellants such as LOX-hydrazine; and advanced monopropellants. It was noted that fluorine-bearing oxidizers offer performance gains over more benign oxidizers. Potential benefits were observed for gelled propellants that could be allowed to freeze, then thawed for use.

  17. FOREWORD: Focus on Advanced Ceramics Focus on Advanced Ceramics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohashi, Naoki

    2011-06-01

    Much research has been devoted recently to developing technologies for renewable energy and improving the efficiency of the processes and devices used in industry and everyday life. Efficient solutions have been found using novel materials such as platinum and palladium-based catalysts for car exhaust systems, samarium-cobalt and neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets for electrical motors, and so on. However, their realization has resulted in an increasing demand for rare elements and in their deficit, the development of new materials based on more abundant elements and new functionalities of traditional materials. Moreover, increasing environmental and health concerns demand substitution of toxic or hazardous substances with nature-friendly alternatives. In this context, this focus issue on advanced ceramics aims to review current trends in ceramics science and technology. It is related to the International Conference on Science and Technology of Advanced Ceramics (STAC) held annually to discuss the emerging issues in the field of ceramics. An important direction of ceramic science is the collaboration between experimental and theoretical sciences. Recent developments in density functional theory and computer technology have enabled the prediction of physical and chemical properties of ceramics, thereby assisting the design of new materials. Therefore, this focus issue includes articles devoted to theory and advanced characterization techniques. As mentioned above, the potential shortage of rare elements is becoming critical to the industry and has resulted in a Japanese government initiative called the 'Ubiquitous Element Strategy'. This focus issue also includes articles related to this strategy and to the associated topics of energy conversion, such as phosphors for high-efficiency lighting and photocatalysts for solar-energy harvesting. We hope that this focus issue will provide a timely overview of current trends and problems in ceramics science and

  18. Prediction of AVM obliteration after stereotactic radiotherapy using radiobiological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mavroidis, Panayiotis; Theodorou, Kyriaki; Lefkopoulos, Dimitrios; Nataf, François; Schlienger, Michel; Karlsson, Bengt; Lax, Ingmar; Kappas, Constantin; Lind, Bengt K.; Brahme, Anders

    2002-07-01

    This study was carried out in order to derive the radiobiological parameters of the dose-response relation for the obliteration of arteriovenous malformation (AVM) following single fraction stereotactic radiotherapy. Furthermore, the accuracy by which the linear Poisson model predicts the probability of obliteration and how the haemorrhage history, location and volume of the AVM influence its radiosensitivity are investigated. The study patient material consists of 85 patients who received radiation for AVM therapy. Radiation-induced AVM obliterations were assessed on the basis of post-irradiation angiographies and other radiological findings. For each patient the dose delivered to the clinical target volume and the clinical treatment outcome were available. These data were used in a maximum likelihood analysis to calculate the best estimates of the parameters of the linear Poisson model. The uncertainties of these parameters were also calculated and their individual influence on the dose-response curve was studied. AVM radiosensitivity was assumed to be the same for all the patients. The radiobiological model used was proved suitable for predicting the treatment outcome pattern of the studied patient material. The radiobiological parameters of the model were calculated for different AVM locations, bleeding histories and AVM sizes. The range of parameter variability had considerable effect on the dose-response curve of AVM. The correlation between the dosimetric data and their corresponding clinical effect could be accurately modelled using the linear Poisson model. The derived response parameters can be introduced into the clinical routine with the calculated accuracy assuming the same methodology in target definition and delineation. The known volume dependence of AVM radiosensitivity was confirmed. Moreover, a trend relating AVM location with its radiosensitivity was observed.

  19. Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Ex-Vessel Prediction: Core Concrete Interaction

    SciTech Connect

    Robb, Kevin R; Farmer, Mitchell; Francis, Matthew W

    2015-01-01

    Lower head failure and corium concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis was carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input. MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. The results of the MELTSPREAD analysis are reported in a companion paper. This information was used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH.

  20. Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

    DOEpatents

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

    2008-11-25

    A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

  1. Advanced electron microscopy for advanced materials.

    PubMed

    Van Tendeloo, Gustaaf; Bals, Sara; Van Aert, Sandra; Verbeeck, Jo; Van Dyck, Dirk

    2012-11-01

    The idea of this Review is to introduce newly developed possibilities of advanced electron microscopy to the materials science community. Over the last decade, electron microscopy has evolved into a full analytical tool, able to provide atomic scale information on the position, nature, and even the valency atoms. This information is classically obtained in two dimensions (2D), but can now also be obtained in 3D. We show examples of applications in the field of nanoparticles and interfaces.

  2. Advance Noise Control Fan II: Test Rig Fan Risk Management Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lucero, John

    2013-01-01

    Since 1995 the Advanced Noise Control Fan (ANCF) has significantly contributed to the advancement of the understanding of the physics of fan tonal noise generation. The 9'x15' WT has successfully tested multiple high speed fan designs over the last several decades. This advanced several tone noise reduction concepts to higher TRL and the validation of fan tone noise prediction codes.

  3. Advances and trends in computational structural mechanics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, A. K.

    1986-01-01

    Recent developments in computational structural mechanics are reviewed with reference to computational needs for future structures technology, advances in computational models for material behavior, discrete element technology, assessment and control of numerical simulations of structural response, hybrid analysis, and techniques for large-scale optimization. Research areas in computational structural mechanics which have high potential for meeting future technological needs are identified. These include prediction and analysis of the failure of structural components made of new materials, development of computational strategies and solution methodologies for large-scale structural calculations, and assessment of reliability and adaptive improvement of response predictions.

  4. Is there a single best estimator? selection of home range estimators using area- under- the-curve

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walter, William D.; Onorato, Dave P.; Fischer, Justin W.

    2015-01-01

    Comparisons of fit of home range contours with locations collected would suggest that use of VHF technology is not as accurate as GPS technology to estimate size of home range for large mammals. Estimators of home range collected with GPS technology performed better than those estimated with VHF technology regardless of estimator used. Furthermore, estimators that incorporate a temporal component (third-generation estimators) appeared to be the most reliable regardless of whether kernel-based or Brownian bridge-based algorithms were used and in comparison to first- and second-generation estimators. We defined third-generation estimators of home range as any estimator that incorporates time, space, animal-specific parameters, and habitat. Such estimators would include movement-based kernel density, Brownian bridge movement models, and dynamic Brownian bridge movement models among others that have yet to be evaluated.

  5. Ozone Vertical Distribution Best Estimate from Different Ground-Based Measurement Techniques at Haute-Provence Observatory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Godin-Beekmann, S.; Ancellet, G.; Khaykin, S.; Pazmiño, A.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; De Backer, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Within the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Changes (NDACC), various measurement techniques have been deployed for the monitoring of ozone vertical distribution at Observatoire de Haute-Provence (44°N, 6°E) in Southern France, since the end of the 1980s. These techniques include two ozone lidars for the measurement of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone vertical profiles, in situ ozone soundings and Dobson Umkehr measurements. The monitoring of ozone on such a long time span allows us to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the various techniques in terms of precision and vertical resolution for the evaluation of long-term trends. The present study focuses on the comparison of ozone profiles data series and explores the possibility of integrating the various measurements in order to provide stratospheric and tropospheric ozone partial columns, and ozone vertical distribution information. Long-term ozone trends are estimated in the stratosphere from the individual and merged data series and compared to those derived from merged satellite data sets. OHP ozone products are also compared to similar products obtained in nearby stations such as Hohenpeissenberg (Germany) or Bern (Switzerland).

  6. How do we best estimate fluvial flood risk in urban environments? : The case of the city of Eilenburg, Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Longo, Elisa; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Mukolwe, Micah

    2015-04-01

    Flooding is one of the most impactful natural hazards. In particular, by looking at the data of damages from natural hazards in Europe collected in the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) one can see a significant increase over the past four decades of both frequency of floods and associated economic damages. Similarly, dramatic trends are also found by analyzing other types of flood losses, such as the number of people affected by floods, homeless, injured or killed. To deal with the aforementioned increase of flood risk, more and more efforts are being made to promote integrated flood risk management, for instance, at the end of 2007, the European Community (EC) issued the Flood Directive (F.D.) 2007/60/EC. One of the major innovations was that the F.D. 2007/60/C requires Member State to carry out risk maps and then take appropriate measures to reduce the evaluated risk. The main goal of this research was to estimate flood damaging using a computer code based on a recently developed method (KULTURisk, www.kulturisk.eu) and to compare the estimated damage with the observed one. The study area was the municipality of Eilenburg, which in 2002 was subjected to a destructive flood event. Were produced flood damage maps with new procedures (e.g. KULTURisk) and compared the estimates with observed data. This study showed the possibility to extend the lesson learned with the Eilenburg case study in other similar contexts. The outcomes of this test provided interesting insights about the flood risk mapping, which are expected to contribute to raise awareness to the flooding issues,to plan (structural and/or non-structural) measures of flood risk reduction and to support better land-use and urban planning.

  7. Assessment Procedures for Narcissistic Personality Disorder: A Comparison of the Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire-4 and Best-Estimate Clinical Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Joshua D.; Campbell, W. Keith; Pilkonis, Paul A.; Morse, Jennifer Q.

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the degree of correspondence between two assessments for narcissistic personality disorder (NPD) in a mixed clinical and community sample--one using a self-report measure (Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire-4) and the other using clinical judgments derived from an assessment based on the longitudinal, expert, all data (LEAD)…

  8. Recent Advances in Conformal Gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Brien, James; Chaykov, Spasen

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, significant advances have been made in alternative gravitational theories. Although MOND remains the leading candidate among the alternative models, Conformal Gravity has been studied by Mannheim and O'Brien to solve the rotation curve problem without the need for dark matter. Recently, Mannheim, O'Brien and Chaykov have begun solving other gravitational questions in Conformal Gravity. In this presentation, we highlight the new work of Conformal Gravity's application to random motions of clusters (the original Zwicky problem), gravitational bending of light, gravitational lensing and a very recent survey of dwarf galaxy rotation curves. We will show in each case that Conformal Gravity can provide an accurate explanation and prediction of the data without the need for dark matter. Coupled with the fact that Conformal Gravity is a fully re-normalizable metric theory of gravity, these results help to push Conformal Gravity onto a competitive stage against other alternative models.

  9. Advanced biostack experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buecker, H.

    1981-01-01

    The Advanced Biostack Experiment is described. The objectives are: (1) to confirm, complement, and enlarge the information obtained from the previous experiments by applying improved and advanced methods of localization and physical and biological evaluation, performing advanced experiments based on these data, and including additional biological specimens and additional radiation detectors; (2) to determine the biological importance of nuclear disintegration stars; (3) to determine the interference of HZE particle induced effects with those of other space flight factors (e.g., weightlessness); and (4) to determine the distribution of HZE particles and of disintegration stars at different locations inside the module and on the pallet.

  10. The ADvanced SEParation (ADSEP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    The ADvanced SEParation (ADSEP) commercial payload is making use of major advances in separation technology: The Phase Partitioning Experiment (PPE); the Micorencapsulation experiment; and the Hemoglobin Separation Experiment (HSE). Using ADSEP, commercial researchers will attempt to determine the partition coefficients for model particles in a two-phase system. With this information, researchers can develop a higher resolution, more effective cell isolation procedure that can be used for many different types of research and for improved health care. The advanced separation technology is already being made available for use in ground-based laboratories.

  11. Advanced information society(7)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiba, Toshihiro

    Various threats are hiding in advanced informationalized society. As we see car accident problems in motorization society light aspects necessarily accompy shady ones. Under the changing circumstances of advanced informationalization added values of information has become much higher. It causes computer crime, hacker, computer virus to come to the surface. In addition it can be said that infringement of intellectual property and privacy are threats brought by advanced information. Against these threats legal, institutional and insurance measures have been progressed, and newly security industry has been established. However, they are not adequate individually or totally. The future vision should be clarified, and countermeasures according to the visions have to be considered.

  12. Advances in endoscopic imaging in ulcerative colitis.

    PubMed

    Tontini, Gian Eugenio; Pastorelli, Luca; Ishaq, Sauid; Neumann, Helmut

    2015-01-01

    Modern strategies for the treatment of ulcerative colitis require more accurate tools for gastrointestinal imaging to better assess mucosal disease activity and long-term prognostic clinical outcomes. Recent advances in gastrointestinal luminal endoscopy are radically changing the role of endoscopy in every-day clinical practice and research trials. Advanced endoscopic imaging techniques including high-definition endoscopes, optical magnification endoscopy, and various chromoendoscopy techniques have remarkably improved endoscopic assessment of ulcerative colitis. More recently, optical biopsy techniques with either endocytoscopy or confocal laser endomicroscopy have shown great potential in predicting several histological changes in real time during ongoing endoscopy. Here, we review current applications of advanced endoscopic imaging techniques in ulcerative colitis and present the most promising upcoming headways in this field. PMID:26365308

  13. Controlling air toxics through advanced coal preparation

    SciTech Connect

    Straszheim, W.E.; Buttermore, W.H.; Pollard, J.L.

    1995-11-01

    This project involves the assessment of advanced coal preparation methods for removing trace elements from coal to reduce the potential for air toxic emissions upon combustion. Scanning electron microscopy-based automated image analysis (SEM-AIA) and advanced washability analyses are being applied with state-of-the-art analytical procedures to predict the removal of elements of concern by advanced column flotation and to confirm the effectiveness of preparation on the quality of quantity of clean coal produced. Specific objectives are to maintain an acceptable recovery of combustible product, while improving the rejection of mineral-associated trace elements. Current work has focused on determining conditions for controlling column flotation system across its operating range and on selection and analysis of samples for determining trace element cleanability.

  14. Advanced Vadose Zone Simulations Using TOUGH

    SciTech Connect

    Finsterle, S.; Doughty, C.; Kowalsky, M.B.; Moridis, G.J.; Pan,L.; Xu, T.; Zhang, Y.; Pruess, K.

    2007-02-01

    The vadose zone can be characterized as a complex subsurfacesystem in which intricate physical and biogeochemical processes occur inresponse to a variety of natural forcings and human activities. Thismakes it difficult to describe, understand, and predict the behavior ofthis specific subsurface system. The TOUGH nonisothermal multiphase flowsimulators are well-suited to perform advanced vadose zone studies. Theconceptual models underlying the TOUGH simulators are capable ofrepresenting features specific to the vadose zone, and of addressing avariety of coupled phenomena. Moreover, the simulators are integratedinto software tools that enable advanced data analysis, optimization, andsystem-level modeling. We discuss fundamental and computationalchallenges in simulating vadose zone processes, review recent advances inmodeling such systems, and demonstrate some capabilities of the TOUGHsuite of codes using illustrative examples.

  15. Measuring Combustion Advance in Solid Propellants

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, L. C.

    1986-01-01

    Set of gauges on solid-propellant rocket motor with electrically insulating case measures advance of combustion front and local erosion rates of propellant and insulation. Data furnished by gauges aid in motor design, failure analysis, and performance prediction. Technique useful in determining propellant uniformity and electrical properties of exhaust plum. Gauges used both in flight and on ground. Foilgauge technique also useful in basic research on pulsed plasmas or combustion of solids.

  16. Experimental results on advanced rotary desiccant dehumidifiers

    SciTech Connect

    Bharathan, D; Parsons, J; Maclaine-cross, I

    1986-08-01

    The Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI) has developed the Cyclic Test Facility (CTF) to develop and validate analytical methods for evaluating and predicting the performance of advanced rotary dehumidifiers. This paper describes the CTF, the dehumidifiers tested at the CTF, and the analytical methods used. The results reported provide an engineering data base and a design tool for evaluating rotary dehumidifiers for desiccant cooling applications.

  17. Advanced space power PEM fuel cell systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vanderborgh, N. E.; Hedstrom, J.; Huff, J. R.

    1989-01-01

    A model showing mass and heat transfer in proton exchange membrane (PEM) single cells is presented. For space applications, stack operation requiring combined water and thermal management is needed. Advanced hardware designs able to combine these two techniques are available. Test results are shown for membrane materials which can operate with sufficiently fast diffusive water transport to sustain current densities of 300 ma per square centimeter. Higher power density levels are predicted to require active water removal.

  18. Delayed coker fractionator advanced control

    SciTech Connect

    Jaisinghani, R.; Minter, B. ); Tica, A.; Puglesi, A.; Ojeda, R. )

    1993-08-01

    In a delayed coking process, as coke drum switches are made, rapid changes occur in both the fractionator feed rate and composition. With conventional control, it is not unusual to see long transient behavior of large swings in both quality and flowrates of coker gas oils. This can extract a heavy economic toll, not only in coker operation, but in the operation of downstream units as the upset is propagated. An advanced process control application (APC) was recently implemented on the coker fractionator at the Yacimentos Petroliferos Fiscales (YPF), Lujan de Cuyo Refinery, in Mendoza, Argentina. This coker fractionator control design was unique as it handled two different operating objectives: control of product qualities via tower temperature profile during normal operation and control of gas oil product flow ratio during drum switch. This combination of control objectives in one multivariable predictive control program was achieved by including special logic to decouple the individual tuning requirements. Also, additional logic was included to unambiguously detect and identify drum switch and drum steam out as discrete events within 30 seconds of their actual occurrence. These discrete events were then used as disturbance variables to minimize fractionator transient behavior. As a performance measure, the overhead temperature was controlled within 2 C to 2.5 C of its target, gas oil flows were stabilized during drum switches and steam generation via pump around was maximized. Overall, implementing advanced control for the delayed coker fractionator resulted in substantial benefits from product quality control, product flow control and minimized energy consumption.

  19. Advances in cancer control

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, P.N. ); Engstrom, P.F. ); Mortenson, L.E. )

    1989-01-01

    This book contains the proceedings of the sixth annual meeting on Advances in Cancer Control. Included are the following articles: Barriers and facilitators to compliance with routine mammographic screening, Preliminary report of an intervention to improve mammography skills of radiologists.

  20. Descendants and advance directives.

    PubMed

    Buford, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Some of the concerns that have been raised in connection to the use of advance directives are of the epistemic variety. Such concerns highlight the possibility that adhering to an advance directive may conflict with what the author of the directive actually wants (or would want) at the time of treatment. However, at least one objection to the employment of advance directives is metaphysical in nature. The objection to be discussed here, first formulated by Rebecca Dresser and labeled by Allen Buchanan as the slavery argument and David DeGrazia the someone else problem, aims to undermine the legitimacy of certain uses of advance directives by concluding that such uses rest upon an incorrect assumption about the identity over time of those ostensibly governed by the directives. There have been numerous attempts to respond to this objection. This paper aims to assess two strategies that have been pursued to cope with the problem.

  1. Advances in Process Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, David L.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    Advances in electronics and computer science have enabled industries (pulp/paper, iron/steel, petroleum/chemical) to attain better control of their processes with resulting increases in quality, productivity, profitability, and compliance with government regulations. (JN)

  2. Advances in cell culture

    SciTech Connect

    Maramorosch, K. )

    1987-01-01

    This book presents papers on advances in cell culture. Topics covered include: Genetic changes in the influenza viruses during growth in cultured cells; The biochemistry and genetics of mosquito cells in culture; and Tree tissue culture applications.

  3. Advanced Process Control Experiments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deshpande, Pradeep B.; And Others

    1980-01-01

    Describes laboratory experiments of a chemistry course on advanced process control. The equipment for the process around which these experiments were developed by the University of Louisville was constructed from data provided by Exxon Oil Company. (HM)

  4. Recent Advances in Vibroacoustics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hughes, William O.; McNelis, Mark E.

    2002-01-01

    Numerous vibroacoustics advances and impacts in the aerospace industry have occurred over the last 15 years. This article addresses some of these that developed from engineering programmatic task-work at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field.

  5. Advanced information society(2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masuyama, Keiichi

    Our modern life is full of information and information infiltrates into our daily life. Networking of the telecommunication is extended to society, company, and individual level. Although we have just entered the advanced information society, business world and our daily life have been steadily transformed by the advancement of information network. This advancement of information brings a big influence on economy, and will play they the main role in the expansion of domestic demands. This paper tries to view the image of coming advanced information society, focusing on the transforming businessman's life and the situation of our daily life, which became wealthy by the spread of daily life information and the visual information by satellite system, in the development of the intelligent city.

  6. Advanced General Dentistry Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, Douglas M.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    A description of the University of Maryland at Baltimore's one-year postdoctoral program in advanced general dentistry focuses on its goals and objectives, curriculum design, patient population, faculty and staff, finances, and program evaluation measures. (MSE)

  7. Advanced Welding Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ding, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    Four advanced welding techniques and their use in NASA are briefly reviewed in this poster presentation. The welding techniques reviewed are: Solid State Welding, Friction Stir Welding (FSW), Thermal Stir Welding (TSW) and Ultrasonic Stir Welding.

  8. Descendants and advance directives.

    PubMed

    Buford, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Some of the concerns that have been raised in connection to the use of advance directives are of the epistemic variety. Such concerns highlight the possibility that adhering to an advance directive may conflict with what the author of the directive actually wants (or would want) at the time of treatment. However, at least one objection to the employment of advance directives is metaphysical in nature. The objection to be discussed here, first formulated by Rebecca Dresser and labeled by Allen Buchanan as the slavery argument and David DeGrazia the someone else problem, aims to undermine the legitimacy of certain uses of advance directives by concluding that such uses rest upon an incorrect assumption about the identity over time of those ostensibly governed by the directives. There have been numerous attempts to respond to this objection. This paper aims to assess two strategies that have been pursued to cope with the problem. PMID:25743056

  9. Advanced space propulsion concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lapointe, Michael R.

    1993-01-01

    The NASA Lewis Research Center has been actively involved in the evaluation and development of advanced spacecraft propulsion. Recent program elements have included high energy density propellants, electrode less plasma thruster concepts, and low power laser propulsion technology. A robust advanced technology program is necessary to develop new, cost-effective methods of spacecraft propulsion, and to continue to push the boundaries of human knowledge and technology.

  10. Advanced planetary studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    Results of planetary advanced studies and planning support provided by Science Applications, Inc. staff members to Earth and Planetary Exploration Division, OSSA/NASA, for the period 1 February 1981 to 30 April 1982 are summarized. The scope of analyses includes cost estimation, planetary missions performance, solar system exploration committee support, Mars program planning, Galilean satellite mission concepts, and advanced propulsion data base. The work covers 80 man-months of research. Study reports and related publications are included in a bibliography section.

  11. [Advances in hormonal contraception].

    PubMed

    Villanueva Egan, Luis Alberto; Pichardo Cuevas, Mauricio

    2007-01-01

    This review provides an update regarding newer options in hormonal contraception that include the progestin-releasing intrauterine system, the contraceptive patch and ring, the single rod progestin-releasing implant, extended and emergency oral contraception and recent advances in hormonal male contraception. These methods represent a major advancement in this field, allowing for the development of more acceptable, safety and effective birth control regimens.

  12. Advanced drilling systems study

    SciTech Connect

    Pierce, K.G.; Livesay, B.J.

    1995-03-01

    This work was initiated as part of the National Advanced Drilling and Excavation Technologies (NADET) Program. It is being performed through joint finding from the Department of Energy Geothermal Division and the Natural Gas Technology Branch, Morgantown Energy Technology Center. Interest in advanced drilling systems is high. The Geothermal Division of the Department of Energy has initiated a multi-year effort in the development of advanced drilling systems; the National Research Council completed a study of drilling and excavation technologies last year; and the MIT Energy Laboratory recently submitted a proposal for a national initiative in advanced drilling and excavation research. The primary reasons for this interest are financial. Worldwide expenditures on oil and gas drilling approach $75 billion per year. Also, drilling and well completion account for 25% to 50% of the cost of producing electricity from geothermal energy. There is incentive to search for methods to reduce the cost of drilling. Work on ideas to improve or replace rotary drilling technology dates back at least to the 1930`s. There was a significant amount of work in this area in the 1960`s and 1970`s; and there has been some continued effort through the 1980`s. Undoubtedly there are concepts for advanced drilling systems that have yet to be studied; however, it is almost certain that new efforts to initiate work on advanced drilling systems will build on an idea or a variation of an idea that has already been investigated. Therefore, a review of previous efforts coupled with a characterization of viable advanced drilling systems and the current state of technology as it applies to those systems provide the basis for the current study of advanced drilling.

  13. Advanced Welding Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ding, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    Some of the applications of advanced welding techniques are shown in this poster presentation. Included are brief explanations of the use on the Ares I and Ares V launch vehicle and on the Space Shuttle Launch vehicle. Also included are microstructural views from four advanced welding techniques: Variable Polarity Plasma Arc (VPPA) weld (fusion), self-reacting friction stir welding (SR-FSW), conventional FSW, and Tube Socket Weld (TSW) on aluminum.

  14. Predicting evolutionary dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balazsi, Gabor

    We developed an ordinary differential equation-based model to predict the evolutionary dynamics of yeast cells carrying a synthetic gene circuit. The predicted aspects included the speed at which the ancestral genotype disappears from the population; as well as the types of mutant alleles that establish in each environmental condition. We validated these predictions by experimental evolution. The agreement between our predictions and experimental findings suggests that cellular and population fitness landscapes can be useful to predict short-term evolution.

  15. Predictive Technologies: Can Smart Tools Augment the Brain's Predictive Abilities?

    PubMed

    Pezzulo, Giovanni; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Gaggioli, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The ability of "looking into the future"-namely, the capacity of anticipating future states of the environment or of the body-represents a fundamental function of human (and animal) brains. A goalkeeper who tries to guess the ball's direction; a chess player who attempts to anticipate the opponent's next move; or a man-in-love who tries to calculate what are the chances of her saying yes-in all these cases, people are simulating possible future states of the world, in order to maximize the success of their decisions or actions. Research in neuroscience is showing that our ability to predict the behavior of physical or social phenomena is largely dependent on the brain's ability to integrate current and past information to generate (probabilistic) simulations of the future. But could predictive processing be augmented using advanced technologies? In this contribution, we discuss how computational technologies may be used to support, facilitate or enhance the prediction of future events, by considering exemplificative scenarios across different domains, from simpler sensorimotor decisions to more complex cognitive tasks. We also examine the key scientific and technical challenges that must be faced to turn this vision into reality.

  16. Predictive Technologies: Can Smart Tools Augment the Brain's Predictive Abilities?

    PubMed Central

    Pezzulo, Giovanni; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Gaggioli, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The ability of “looking into the future”—namely, the capacity of anticipating future states of the environment or of the body—represents a fundamental function of human (and animal) brains. A goalkeeper who tries to guess the ball's direction; a chess player who attempts to anticipate the opponent's next move; or a man-in-love who tries to calculate what are the chances of her saying yes—in all these cases, people are simulating possible future states of the world, in order to maximize the success of their decisions or actions. Research in neuroscience is showing that our ability to predict the behavior of physical or social phenomena is largely dependent on the brain's ability to integrate current and past information to generate (probabilistic) simulations of the future. But could predictive processing be augmented using advanced technologies? In this contribution, we discuss how computational technologies may be used to support, facilitate or enhance the prediction of future events, by considering exemplificative scenarios across different domains, from simpler sensorimotor decisions to more complex cognitive tasks. We also examine the key scientific and technical challenges that must be faced to turn this vision into reality. PMID:27199648

  17. Predictive Technologies: Can Smart Tools Augment the Brain's Predictive Abilities?

    PubMed

    Pezzulo, Giovanni; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Gaggioli, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The ability of "looking into the future"-namely, the capacity of anticipating future states of the environment or of the body-represents a fundamental function of human (and animal) brains. A goalkeeper who tries to guess the ball's direction; a chess player who attempts to anticipate the opponent's next move; or a man-in-love who tries to calculate what are the chances of her saying yes-in all these cases, people are simulating possible future states of the world, in order to maximize the success of their decisions or actions. Research in neuroscience is showing that our ability to predict the behavior of physical or social phenomena is largely dependent on the brain's ability to integrate current and past information to generate (probabilistic) simulations of the future. But could predictive processing be augmented using advanced technologies? In this contribution, we discuss how computational technologies may be used to support, facilitate or enhance the prediction of future events, by considering exemplificative scenarios across different domains, from simpler sensorimotor decisions to more complex cognitive tasks. We also examine the key scientific and technical challenges that must be faced to turn this vision into reality. PMID:27199648

  18. THE ADVANCED CHEMISTRY BASINS PROJECT

    SciTech Connect

    William Goddard; Peter Meulbroek; Yongchun Tang; Lawrence Cathles III

    2004-04-05

    In the next decades, oil exploration by majors and independents will increasingly be in remote, inaccessible areas, or in areas where there has been extensive shallow exploration but deeper exploration potential may remain; areas where the collection of data is expensive, difficult, or even impossible, and where the most efficient use of existing data can drive the economics of the target. The ability to read hydrocarbon chemistry in terms of subsurface migration processes by relating it to the evolution of the basin and fluid migration is perhaps the single technological capability that could most improve our ability to explore effectively because it would allow us to use a vast store of existing or easily collected chemical data to determine the major migration pathways in a basin and to determine if there is deep exploration potential. To this end a the DOE funded a joint effort between California Institute of Technology, Cornell University, and GeoGroup Inc. to assemble a representative set of maturity and maturation kinetic models and develop an advanced basin model able to predict the chemistry of hydrocarbons in a basin from this input data. The four year project is now completed and has produced set of public domain maturity indicator and maturation kinetic data set, an oil chemistry and flash calculation tool operable under Excel, and a user friendly, graphically intuitive basin model that uses this data and flash tool, operates on a PC, and simulates hydrocarbon generation and migration and the chemical changes that can occur during migration (such as phase separation and gas washing). The DOE Advanced Chemistry Basin Model includes a number of new methods that represent advances over current technology. The model is built around the concept of handling arbitrarily detailed chemical composition of fluids in a robust finite-element 2-D grid. There are three themes on which the model focuses: chemical kinetic and equilibrium reaction parameters, chemical

  19. Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2011-01-01

    Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

  20. Ceramic Technology for Advanced Heat Engines Project

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-08-01

    The Ceramic Technology For Advanced Heat Engines Project was developed by the Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Systems (OTS) in Conservation and Renewable Energy. This project, part of the OTS's Advanced Materials Development Program, was developed to meet the ceramic technology requirements of the OTS's automotive technology programs. Significant accomplishments in fabricating ceramic components for the Department of Energy (DOE), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and Department of Defense (DOD) advanced heat engine programs have provided evidence that the operation of ceramic parts in high-temperature engine environments is feasible. However, these programs have also demonstrated that additional research is needed in materials and processing development, design methodology, and data base and life prediction before industry will have a sufficient technology base from which to produce reliable cost-effective ceramic engine components commercially. An assessment of needs was completed, and a five year project plan was developed with extensive input from private industry. The objective of the project is to develop the industrial technology base required for reliable ceramics for application in advanced automotive heat engines. The project approach includes determining the mechanisms controlling reliability, improving processes for fabricating existing ceramics, developing new materials with increased reliability, and testing these materials in simulated engine environments to confirm reliability. Although this is a generic materials project, the focus is on structural ceramics for advanced gas turbine and diesel engines, ceramic hearings and attachments, and ceramic coatings for thermal barrier and wear applications in these engines.

  1. A direct advance on advance directives.

    PubMed

    Shaw, David

    2012-06-01

    Advance directives (ADs), which are also sometimes referred to as 'living wills', are statements made by a person that indicate what treatment she should not be given in the event that she is not competent to consent or refuse at the future moment in question. As such, ADs provide a way for patients to make decisions in advance about what treatments they do not want to receive, without doctors having to find proxy decision-makers or having recourse to the doctrine of necessity. While patients can request particular treatments in an AD, only refusals are binding. This paper will examine whether ADs safeguard the autonomy and best interests of the incompetent patient, and whether legislating for the use of ADs is justified, using the specific context of the legal situation in the United Kingdom to illustrate the debate. The issue of whether the law should permit ADs is itself dependent on the issue of whether ADs are ethically justified; thus we must answer a normative question in order to answer the legislative one. It emerges that ADs suffer from two major problems, one related to autonomy and one to consent. First, ADs' emphasis on precedent autonomy effectively sentences some people who want to live to death. Second, many ADs might not meet the standard criteria for informed refusal of treatment, because they fail on the crucial criterion of sufficient information. Ultimately, it transpires that ADs are typically only appropriate for patients who temporarily lose physical or mental capacity.

  2. Recruit and ADVANCE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosser, Sue V.

    2007-04-01

    Beginning in 2001, the National Science Foundation launched the ADVANCE Initiative, which has now awarded more than 70 million to some thirty institutions for transformations to advance women. Results of studies on how to attract and retain women students and faculty underpinned our ADVANCE Institutional Transformation grant funded by the NSF for 3.7 million for five years, beginning in 2001. As co-principal investigator on this grant, I insured that this research informed the five major threads of the grant: 1) Four termed ADVANCE professors to mentor junior women faculty in each college; 2) Collection of MIT-Report-like data indicators to assess whether advancement of women really occurs during and after the institutional transformation undertaken through ADVANCE; 3) Family-friendly policies and practices to stop the tenure clock and provide active service, modified duties, lactation stations and day care; 4) Mini-retreats to facilitate access for tenure-track women faculty to male decision-makers and administrators for informal conversations and discussion on topics important to women faculty; 5) Removal of subtle gender, racial, and other biases in promotion and tenure. The dynamic changes resulting from the grant in quality of mentoring, new understanding of promotion and tenure, numbers of women retained and given endowed chairs, and emergence of new family friendly policies gave me hope for genuine diversification of leadership in science and technology. As the grant funding ends, the absence of NSF prestige and monitoring, coupled with a change in academic leadership at the top, provide new challenges for institutionalization, recruitment, and advancement of women into leadership positions in science and engineering.

  3. Effects of Moist Convection on Hurricane Predictability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Fuqing; Sippel, Jason A.

    2008-01-01

    This study exemplifies inherent uncertainties in deterministic prediction of hurricane formation and intensity. Such uncertainties could ultimately limit the predictability of hurricanes at all time scales. In particular, this study highlights the predictability limit due to the effects on moist convection of initial-condition errors with amplitudes far smaller than those of any observation or analysis system. Not only can small and arguably unobservable differences in the initial conditions result in different routes to tropical cyclogenesis, but they can also determine whether or not a tropical disturbance will significantly develop. The details of how the initial vortex is built can depend on chaotic interactions of mesoscale features, such as cold pools from moist convection, whose timing and placement may significantly vary with minute initial differences. Inherent uncertainties in hurricane forecasts illustrate the need for developing advanced ensemble prediction systems to provide event-dependent probabilistic forecasts and risk assessment.

  4. Advanced transmission studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coy, John J.; Bill, Robert C.

    1988-01-01

    The NASA Lewis Research Center and the U.S. Army Aviation Systems Command share an interest in advancing the technology for helicopter propulsion systems. In particular, this paper presents highlights from that portion of the program in drive train technology and the related mechanical components. The major goals of the program are to increase the life, reliability, and maintainability; reduce the weight, noise, and vibration; and maintain the relatively high mechanical efficiency of the gear train. The current activity emphasizes noise reduction technology and analytical code development followed by experimental verification. Selected significant advances in technology for transmissions are reviewed, including advanced configurations and new analytical tools. Finally, the plan for future transmission research is presented.

  5. Advanced Hydrogen Turbine Development

    SciTech Connect

    Marra, John

    2015-09-30

    Under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratories, Siemens has completed the Advanced Hydrogen Turbine Development Program to develop an advanced gas turbine for incorporation into future coal-based Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plants. All the scheduled DOE Milestones were completed and significant technical progress was made in the development of new technologies and concepts. Advanced computer simulations and modeling, as well as subscale, full scale laboratory, rig and engine testing were utilized to evaluate and select concepts for further development. Program Requirements of: A 3 to 5 percentage point improvement in overall plant combined cycle efficiency when compared to the reference baseline plant; 20 to 30 percent reduction in overall plant capital cost when compared to the reference baseline plant; and NOx emissions of 2 PPM out of the stack. were all met. The program was completed on schedule and within the allotted budget

  6. Advances in craniofacial surgery.

    PubMed

    Tatum, Sherard A; Losquadro, William D

    2008-01-01

    The past 10 years have witnessed many advances in craniofacial surgery. Advances in surgical techniques, such as distraction osteogenesis and endoscopic procedures, combined with refinements in surgical equipment, such as resorbable plating and distractors, have improved surgical outcomes, while minimizing morbidity. Technological advances in 3-dimensional imaging, computer simulation, and intraoperative navigation facilitate diagnosis, preoperative planning, and surgical execution. Rising cases of deformational plagiocephaly owing to increased supine infant sleep positioning necessitated the development of appropriate diagnosis and treatment and the avoidance of unnecessary surgery. A greater understanding of the genetic basis of craniofacial disorders has allowed better preoperative assessment and counseling. Finally, efforts to develop better bone graft substitutes with gene therapy and nanotechnology are ongoing. PMID:19018057

  7. Advanced thermionic energy conversion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Britt, E. J.; Fitzpatrick, G. D.; Hansen, L. K.; Rasor, N. S.

    1974-01-01

    Basic analytical and experimental exploration was conducted on several types of advanced thermionic energy converters, and preliminary analysis was performed on systems utilizing advanced converter performance. The Pt--Nb cylindrical diode which exhibited a suppressed arc drop, as described in the preceding report, was reassembled and the existence of the postulated hydrid mode of operation was tentatively confirmed. Initial data obtained on ignited and unignited triode operation in the demountable cesium vapor system essentially confirmed the design principles developed in earlier work, with a few exceptions. Three specific advanced converter concepts were selected as candidates for concentrated basic study and for practical evaluation in fixed-configuration converters. Test vehicles and test stands for these converters and a unique controlled-atmosphere station for converter assembly and processing were designed, and procurement was initiated.

  8. Advanced servomanipulator development

    SciTech Connect

    Kuban, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    The Advanced Servomanipulator (ASM) System consists of three major components: the ASM slave, the dual arm master controller (DAMC) or master, and the control system. The ASM is remotely maintainable force-reflecting servomanipulator developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as part of the Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program. This new manipulator addresses requirements of advanced nuclear fuel reprocessing with emphasis on force reflection, remote maintainability, reliability, radiation tolerance, and corrosion resistance. The advanced servomanipulator is uniquely subdivided into remotely replaceable modules which will permit in situ manipulator repair by spare module replacement. Manipulator modularization and increased reliability are accomplished through a force transmission system that uses gears and torque tubes. Digital control algorithms and mechanical precision are used to offset the increased backlash, friction, and inertia resulting from the gear drives. This results in the first remotely maintainable force-reflecting servomanipulator in the world.

  9. Advanced ramjet concepts program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leingang, J. L.

    1992-01-01

    Uniquely advantageous features, on both the performance and weight sides of the ledger, can be achieved through synergistic design integration of airbreathing and rocket technologies in the development of advanced orbital space transport propulsion systems of the combined cycle type. In the context of well understood advanced airbreathing and liquid rocket propulsion principles and practices, this precept of synergism is advanced mainly through six rather specific examples. These range from the detailed component level to the overall vehicle system level as follows: using jet compression; achieving a high area ratio rocket nozzle; ameliorating gas generator cycle rocket system deficiencies; using the in-duct special rocket thrust chamber assembly as the principal scramjet fuel injection operation; using the unstowed, covered fan as a duct closure for effecting high area ratio rocket mode operation; and creating a unique airbreathing rocket system via the onboard, cryogenic hydrogen induced air liquefaction process.

  10. CONDOR Advanced Visionics System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanahele, David L.; Buckanin, Robert M.

    1996-06-01

    The Covert Night/Day Operations for Rotorcraft (CONDOR) program is a collaborative research and development program between the governments of the United States and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to develop and demonstrate an advanced visionics concept coupled with an advanced flight control system to improve rotorcraft mission effectiveness during day, night, and adverse weather conditions in the Nap- of-the-Earth environment. The Advanced Visionics System for CONDOR is the flight- ruggedized head mounted display and computer graphics generator with the intended use of exploring, developing, and evaluating proposed visionic concepts for rotorcraft including; the application of color displays, wide field-of-view, enhanced imagery, virtual displays, mission symbology, stereo imagery, and other graphical interfaces.

  11. Advanced quantum noise correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogl, Ulrich; Glasser, Ryan T.; Clark, Jeremy B.; Glorieux, Quentin; Li, Tian; Corzo, Neil V.; Lett, Paul D.

    2014-01-01

    We use the quantum correlations of twin beams of light to investigate the fundamental addition of noise when one of the beams propagates through a fast-light medium based on phase-insensitive gain. The experiment is based on two successive four-wave mixing processes in rubidium vapor, which allow for the generation of bright two-mode-squeezed twin beams followed by a controlled advancement while maintaining the shared quantum correlations between the beams. The demonstrated effect allows the study of irreversible decoherence in a medium exhibiting anomalous dispersion, and for the first time shows the advancement of a bright nonclassical state of light. The advancement and corresponding degradation of the quantum correlations are found to be operating near the fundamental quantum limit imposed by using a phase-insensitive amplifier.

  12. Advanced Aerodynamic Control Effectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wood, Richard M.; Bauer, Steven X. S.

    1999-01-01

    A 1990 research program that focused on the development of advanced aerodynamic control effectors (AACE) for military aircraft has been reviewed and summarized. Data are presented for advanced planform, flow control, and surface contouring technologies. The data show significant increases in lift, reductions in drag, and increased control power, compared to typical aerodynamic designs. The results presented also highlighted the importance of planform selection in the design of a control effector suite. Planform data showed that dramatic increases in lift (greater than 25%) can be achieved with multiple wings and a sawtooth forebody. Passive porosity and micro drag generator control effector data showed control power levels exceeding that available from typical effectors (moving surfaces). Application of an advanced planform to a tailless concept showed benefits of similar magnitude as those observed in the generic studies.

  13. What is preexisting strength? Predicting free association probabilities, similarity ratings, and cued recall probabilities.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Douglas L; Dyrdal, Gunvor M; Goodmon, Leilani B

    2005-08-01

    Measuring lexical knowledge poses a challenge to the study of the influence of preexisting knowledge on the retrieval of new memories. Many tasks focus on word pairs, but words are embedded in associative networks, so how should preexisting pair strength be measured? It has been measured by free association, similarity ratings, and co-occurrence statistics. Researchers interpret free association response probabilities as unbiased estimates of forward cue-to-target strength. In Study 1, analyses of large free association and extralist cued recall databases indicate that this interpretation is incorrect. Competitor and backward strengths bias free association probabilities, and as with other recall tasks, preexisting strength is described by a ratio rule. In Study 2, associative similarity ratings are predicted by forward and backward, but not by competitor, strength. Preexisting strength is not a unitary construct, because its measurement varies with method. Furthermore, free association probabilities predict extralist cued recall better than do ratings and co-occurrence statistics. The measure that most closely matches the criterion task may provide the best estimate of the identity of preexisting strength. PMID:16447386

  14. Advanced Combustion and Fuels; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect

    Zigler, Brad

    2015-06-08

    Presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office 2015 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting, held June 8-12, 2015, in Arlington, Virginia. It addresses technical barriers of inadequate data and predictive tools for fuel and lubricant effects on advanced combustion engines, with the strategy being through collaboration, develop techniques, tools, and data to quantify critical fuel physico-chemical effects to enable development of advanced combustion engines that use alternative fuels.

  15. Battery Life Predictive Model

    2009-12-31

    The Software consists of a model used to predict battery capacity fade and resistance growth for arbitrary cycling and temperature profiles. It allows the user to extrapolate from experimental data to predict actual life cycle.

  16. Advanced solar dynamic technology program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Calogeras, James

    1990-01-01

    Viewgraphs and discussion on Advanced Solar Dynamic Technology Program are presented. Topics covered include: advanced solar dynamic technology program; advanced concentrators; advanced heat receivers; power conversion systems; dished all metal honeycomb sandwich panels; Stirling cavity heat pipe receiver; Brayton solar receiver; and thermal energy storage technology.

  17. MR Neurography: Advances

    PubMed Central

    Chhabra, Avneesh; Zhao, Lianxin; Carrino, John A.; Trueblood, Eo; Koceski, Saso; Shteriev, Filip; Lenkinski, Lionel; Sinclair, Christopher D. J.; Andreisek, Gustav

    2013-01-01

    High resolution and high field magnetic resonance neurography (MR neurography, MRN) is shown to have excellent anatomic capability. There have been considerable advances in the technology in the last few years leading to various feasibility studies using different structural and functional imaging approaches in both clinical and research settings. This paper is intended to be a useful seminar for readers who want to gain knowledge of the advancements in the MRN pulse sequences currently used in clinical practice as well as learn about the other techniques on the horizon aimed at better depiction of nerve anatomy, pathology, and potential noninvasive evaluation of nerve degeneration or regeneration. PMID:23589774

  18. Advances in attosecond science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calegari, Francesca; Sansone, Giuseppe; Stagira, Salvatore; Vozzi, Caterina; Nisoli, Mauro

    2016-03-01

    Attosecond science offers formidable tools for the investigation of electronic processes at the heart of important physical processes in atomic, molecular and solid-state physics. In the last 15 years impressive advances have been obtained from both the experimental and theoretical points of view. Attosecond pulses, in the form of isolated pulses or of trains of pulses, are now routinely available in various laboratories. In this review recent advances in attosecond science are reported and important applications are discussed. After a brief presentation of various techniques that can be employed for the generation and diagnosis of sub-femtosecond pulses, various applications are reported in atomic, molecular and condensed-matter physics.

  19. Advancing cardiovascular tissue engineering

    PubMed Central

    Truskey, George A.

    2016-01-01

    Cardiovascular tissue engineering offers the promise of biologically based repair of injured and damaged blood vessels, valves, and cardiac tissue. Major advances in cardiovascular tissue engineering over the past few years involve improved methods to promote the establishment and differentiation of induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs), scaffolds from decellularized tissue that may produce more highly differentiated tissues and advance clinical translation, improved methods to promote vascularization, and novel in vitro microphysiological systems to model normal and diseased tissue function. iPSC technology holds great promise, but robust methods are needed to further promote differentiation. Differentiation can be further enhanced with chemical, electrical, or mechanical stimuli. PMID:27303643

  20. Advanced engine study program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masters, A. I.; Galler, D. E.; Denman, T. F.; Shied, R. A.; Black, J. R.; Fierstein, A. R.; Clark, G. L.; Branstrom, B. R.

    1993-06-01

    A design and analysis study was conducted to provide advanced engine descriptions and parametric data for space transfer vehicles. The study was based on an advanced oxygen/hydrogen engine in the 7,500 to 50,000 lbf thrust range. Emphasis was placed on defining requirements for high-performance engines capable of achieving reliable and versatile operation in a space environment. Four variations on the expander cycle were compared, and the advantages and disadvantages of each were assessed. Parametric weight, envelope, and performance data were generated over a range of 7,500 to 50,000 lb thrust and a wide range of chamber pressure and nozzle expansion ratio.

  1. Advanced engine study program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Masters, A. I.; Galler, D. E.; Denman, T. F.; Shied, R. A.; Black, J. R.; Fierstein, A. R.; Clark, G. L.; Branstrom, B. R.

    1993-01-01

    A design and analysis study was conducted to provide advanced engine descriptions and parametric data for space transfer vehicles. The study was based on an advanced oxygen/hydrogen engine in the 7,500 to 50,000 lbf thrust range. Emphasis was placed on defining requirements for high-performance engines capable of achieving reliable and versatile operation in a space environment. Four variations on the expander cycle were compared, and the advantages and disadvantages of each were assessed. Parametric weight, envelope, and performance data were generated over a range of 7,500 to 50,000 lb thrust and a wide range of chamber pressure and nozzle expansion ratio.

  2. Avionics advanced development strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dyer, D.

    1990-01-01

    Discussed here is the problem of how to put together an integrated, phased, and affordable avionics advanced development program that links and applies to operational, evolving, and developing programs/vehicles, as well as those in the planning phases. Collecting technology needs from individual programs/vehicles and proposed technology items from individual developers usually results in a mismatch and something that is unaffordable. A strategy to address this problem is outlined with task definitions which will lead to avionics advanced development items that will fit within an overall framework, prioritized to support budgeting, and support the scope of NASA space transportations needs.

  3. Advanced Monitoring systems initiative

    SciTech Connect

    R.J. Venedam; E.O. Hohman; C.F. Lohrstorfer; S.J. Weeks; J.B. Jones; W.J. Haas

    2004-09-30

    The Advanced Monitoring Systems Initiative (AMSI) actively searches for promising technologies and aggressively moves them from the research bench into DOE/NNSA end-user applications. There is a large unfulfilled need for an active element that reaches out to identify and recruit emerging sensor technologies into the test and evaluation function. Sensor research is ubiquitous, with the seeds of many novel concepts originating in the university systems, but at present these novel concepts do not move quickly and efficiently into real test environments. AMSI is a widely recognized, self-sustaining ''business'' accelerating the selection, development, testing, evaluation, and deployment of advanced monitoring systems and components.

  4. Advanced sensors technology survey

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, Tommy G.; Costello, David J.; Davis, Jerry G.; Horst, Richard L.; Lessard, Charles S.; Peel, H. Herbert; Tolliver, Robert

    1992-01-01

    This project assesses the state-of-the-art in advanced or 'smart' sensors technology for NASA Life Sciences research applications with an emphasis on those sensors with potential applications on the space station freedom (SSF). The objectives are: (1) to conduct literature reviews on relevant advanced sensor technology; (2) to interview various scientists and engineers in industry, academia, and government who are knowledgeable on this topic; (3) to provide viewpoints and opinions regarding the potential applications of this technology on the SSF; and (4) to provide summary charts of relevant technologies and centers where these technologies are being developed.

  5. Advanced Neuroimaging of Tinnitus.

    PubMed

    Raghavan, Prashant; Steven, Andrew; Rath, Tanya; Gandhi, Dheeraj

    2016-05-01

    Although tinnitus may originate in damage to the peripheral auditory apparatus, its perception and distressing symptomatology are consequences of alterations to auditory, sensory, and limbic neural networks. This has been described in several studies, some using advanced structural MR imaging techniques such as diffusion tensor imaging. An understanding of these complex changes could enable development of targeted treatment. New MR imaging techniques enabling detailed depiction of the labyrinth may be useful when diagnosis of Meniere disease is equivocal. Advances in computed tomography and MR imaging have enabled noninvasive diagnosis of dural arteriovenous fistulae. PMID:27154611

  6. Advanced concepts for acceleration

    SciTech Connect

    Keefe, D.

    1986-07-01

    Selected examples of advanced accelerator concepts are reviewed. Such plasma accelerators as plasma beat wave accelerator, plasma wake field accelerator, and plasma grating accelerator are discussed particularly as examples of concepts for accelerating relativistic electrons or positrons. Also covered are the pulsed electron-beam, pulsed laser accelerator, inverse Cherenkov accelerator, inverse free-electron laser, switched radial-line accelerators, and two-beam accelerator. Advanced concepts for ion acceleration discussed include the electron ring accelerator, excitation of waves on intense electron beams, and two-wave combinations. (LEW)

  7. Advanced Solar Power Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atkinson, J. H.; Hobgood, J. M.

    1984-01-01

    The Advanced Solar Power System (ASPS) concentrator uses a technically sophisticated design and extensive tooling to produce very efficient (80 to 90%) and versatile energy supply equipment which is inexpensive to manufacture and requires little maintenance. The advanced optical design has two 10th order, generalized aspheric surfaces in a Cassegrainian configuration which gives outstanding performance and is relatively insensitive to temperature changes and wind loading. Manufacturing tolerances also have been achieved. The key to the ASPS is the direct absorption of concentrated sunlight in the working fluid by radiative transfers in a black body cavity. The basic ASPS design concepts, efficiency, optical system, and tracking and focusing controls are described.

  8. Advanced subsonic transport propulsion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nored, D. L.; Ciepluch, C. C.; Chamberlain, R.; Meleason, E. T.; Kraft, G. A.

    1981-01-01

    A brief review of the current NASA Energy Efficient Engine (E(3)) Project is presented. Included in this review are the factors that influenced the design of these turbofan engines and the advanced technology incorporated in them to reduce fuel consumption and improve environmental characteristics. In addition, factors such as the continuing spiral in fuel cost, that could influence future aircraft propulsion systems beyond those represented by the E(3) engines, are also discussed. Advanced technologies that will address these influencing factors and provide viable future propulsion systems are described. The potential importance of other propulsion system types, such as geared fans and turboshaft engines, is presented.

  9. Advances in surgery.

    PubMed

    Weder, W

    2012-09-01

    In the last decade, technological advances, new staging tools, better understanding the role of surgery within multimodal treatment concepts in advanced stages and progress in the functional assessment of surgical candidates improved the quality of surgery in the management of patients with lung cancer. Lung resection with video-assisted thoracoscopic access gained wide acceptance, the indication for lobectomy or sublobar resection in early stages was applied based on new data and selection for multimodal treatment in stage III is better understood based on the data. a major impact on the outcome of patients with lung cancer has the treatment in specialized high-volume centers.

  10. Prediction in Multiple Regression.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Osborne, Jason W.

    2000-01-01

    Presents the concept of prediction via multiple regression (MR) and discusses the assumptions underlying multiple regression analyses. Also discusses shrinkage, cross-validation, and double cross-validation of prediction equations and describes how to calculate confidence intervals around individual predictions. (SLD)

  11. Nonlinear Combustion Instability Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Flandro, Gary

    2010-01-01

    The liquid rocket engine stability prediction software (LCI) predicts combustion stability of systems using LOX-LH2 propellants. Both longitudinal and transverse mode stability characteristics are calculated. This software has the unique feature of being able to predict system limit amplitude.

  12. Prediction in Multilevel Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Afshartous, David; de Leeuw, Jan

    2005-01-01

    Multilevel modeling is an increasingly popular technique for analyzing hierarchical data. This article addresses the problem of predicting a future observable y[subscript *j] in the jth group of a hierarchical data set. Three prediction rules are considered and several analytical results on the relative performance of these prediction rules are…

  13. Combining Modeling and Gaming for Predictive Analytics

    SciTech Connect

    Riensche, Roderick M.; Whitney, Paul D.

    2012-08-22

    Many of our most significant challenges involve people. While human behavior has long been studied, there are recent advances in computational modeling of human behavior. With advances in computational capabilities come increases in the volume and complexity of data that humans must understand in order to make sense of and capitalize on these modeling advances. Ultimately, models represent an encapsulation of human knowledge. One inherent challenge in modeling is efficient and accurate transfer of knowledge from humans to models, and subsequent retrieval. The simulated real-world environment of games presents one avenue for these knowledge transfers. In this paper we describe our approach of combining modeling and gaming disciplines to develop predictive capabilities, using formal models to inform game development, and using games to provide data for modeling.

  14. Advanced chaos forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doerner, R.; Hübinger, B.; Martienssen, W.

    1994-07-01

    The exponential separation of initially adjacent trajectories restricts the predictability of deterministic chaotic motions. The predictability depends on the initial state from where the trajectory starts that shall be forecasted. By calculating the predictability simultaneously with the forecast, we are able to reject forecasts with low reliability immediately, thereby decreasing drastically the average forecast error. We test this scheme experimentally on Chua's circuit [Komuro, Tokunaga, Matsumoto, Chua, and Hotta, Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos 1, 139 (1991)], basing all calculations only on a time series of a single scalar variable.

  15. Advanced techniques for determining long term compatibility of materials with propellants

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, R. L.; Stebbins, J. P.; Smith, A. W.; Pullen, K. E.

    1973-01-01

    A method for the prediction of propellant-material compatibility for periods of time up to ten years is presented. Advanced sensitive measurement techniques used in the prediction method are described. These include: neutron activation analysis, radioactive tracer technique, and atomic absorption spectroscopy with a graphite tube furnace sampler. The results of laboratory tests performed to verify the prediction method are presented.

  16. NASA GRC Fatigue Crack Initiation Life Prediction Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arya, Vinod K.; Halford, Gary R.

    2002-01-01

    Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable, more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelope is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelope as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

  17. A survey of advanced battery systems for space applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Attia, Alan I.

    1989-01-01

    The results of a survey on advanced secondary battery systems for space applications are presented. Fifty-five battery experts from government, industry and universities participated in the survey by providing their opinions on the use of several battery types for six space missions, and their predictions of likely technological advances that would impact the development of these batteries. The results of the survey predict that only four battery types are likely to exceed a specific energy of 150 Wh/kg and meet the safety and reliability requirements for space applications within the next 15 years.

  18. Advanced Space Surface Systems Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huffaker, Zachary Lynn; Mueller, Robert P.

    2014-01-01

    The importance of advanced surface systems is becoming increasingly relevant in the modern age of space technology. Specifically, projects pursued by the Granular Mechanics and Regolith Operations (GMRO) Lab are unparalleled in the field of planetary resourcefulness. This internship opportunity involved projects that support properly utilizing natural resources from other celestial bodies. Beginning with the tele-robotic workstation, mechanical upgrades were necessary to consider for specific portions of the workstation consoles and successfully designed in concept. This would provide more means for innovation and creativity concerning advanced robotic operations. Project RASSOR is a regolith excavator robot whose primary objective is to mine, store, and dump regolith efficiently on other planetary surfaces. Mechanical adjustments were made to improve this robot's functionality, although there were some minor system changes left to perform before the opportunity ended. On the topic of excavator robots, the notes taken by the GMRO staff during the 2013 and 2014 Robotic Mining Competitions were effectively organized and analyzed for logistical purposes. Lessons learned from these annual competitions at Kennedy Space Center are greatly influential to the GMRO engineers and roboticists. Another project that GMRO staff support is Project Morpheus. Support for this project included successfully producing mathematical models of the eroded landing pad surface for the vertical testbed vehicle to predict a timeline for pad reparation. And finally, the last project this opportunity made contribution to was Project Neo, a project exterior to GMRO Lab projects, which focuses on rocket propulsion systems. Additions were successfully installed to the support structure of an original vertical testbed rocket engine, thus making progress towards futuristic test firings in which data will be analyzed by students affiliated with Rocket University. Each project will be explained in

  19. Advanced proteomic liquid chromatography

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, Fang; Smith, Richard D.; Shen, Yufeng

    2012-10-26

    Liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry is the predominant platform used to analyze proteomics samples consisting of large numbers of proteins and their proteolytic products (e.g., truncated polypeptides) and spanning a wide range of relative concentrations. This review provides an overview of advanced capillary liquid chromatography techniques and methodologies that greatly improve separation resolving power and proteomics analysis coverage, sensitivity, and throughput.

  20. Advanced geometries and regimes

    SciTech Connect

    Bulanov, S. S.; Bulanov, S. V.; Turchetti, G.; Limpouch, J.; Klimo, O.; Psikal, J.; Margarone, D.; Korn, G.

    2013-07-26

    We review and discuss different schemes of laser ion acceleration as well as advanced target geometries in connection with the development of the laser-driven proton source for hadron therapy of oncological diseases, which is a part of the ELIMED project.