Science.gov

Sample records for advanced best-estimate predictions

  1. TRAC-PF1: an advanced best-estimate computer program for pressurized water reactor analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Liles, D.R.; Mahaffy, J.H.

    1984-02-01

    The Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) is being developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory to provide advanced best-estimate predictions of postulated accidents in light water reactors. The TRAC-PF1 program provides this capability for pressurized water reactors and for many thermal-hydraulic experimental facilities. The code features either a one-dimensional or a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and its associated internals; a two-phase, two-fluid nonequilibrium hydrodynamics model with a noncondensable gas field; flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment; optional reflood tracking capability for both bottom flood and falling-film quench fronts; and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions. This report describes the thermal-hydraulic models and the numerical solution methods used in the code. Detailed programming and user information also are provided.

  2. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology including advanced validation concepts to license evolving nuclear reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Unal, Cetin; Williams, Brian; Mc Clure, Patrick; Nelson, Ralph A

    2010-01-01

    Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for cost

  3. Ares I-X Best Estimated Trajectory and Comparison with Pre-Flight Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karlgaard, Christopher D.; Beck, Roger E.; Derry, Stephen D.; Brandon, Jay M.; Starr, Brett R.; Tartabini, Paul V.; Olds, Aaron D.

    2011-01-01

    The Ares I-X trajectory reconstruction produced best estimated trajectories of the flight test vehicle ascent through stage separation, and of the first and upper stage entries after separation. The trajectory reconstruction process combines on-board, ground-based, and atmospheric measurements to produce the trajectory estimates. The Ares I-X vehicle had a number of on-board and ground based sensors that were available, including inertial measurement units, radar, air- data, and weather balloons. However, due to problems with calibrations and/or data, not all of the sensor data were used. The trajectory estimate was generated using an Iterative Extended Kalman Filter algorithm, which is an industry standard processing algorithm for filtering and estimation applications. This paper describes the methodology and results of the trajectory reconstruction process, including flight data preprocessing and input uncertainties, trajectory estimation algorithms, output transformations, and comparisons with preflight predictions.

  4. TRAC-PF1/MOD1: an advanced best-estimate computer program for pressurized water reactor thermal-hydraulic analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Liles, D.R.; Mahaffy, J.H.

    1986-07-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory is developing the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) to provide advanced best-estimate predictions of postulated accidents in light-water reactors. The TRAC-PF1/MOD1 program provides this capability for pressurized water reactors and for many thermal-hydraulic test facilities. The code features either a one- or a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and its associated internals, a two-fluid nonequilibrium hydrodynamics model with a noncondensable gas field and solute tracking, flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment, optional reflood tracking capability for bottom-flood and falling-film quench fronts, and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions. The stability-enhancing two-step (SETS) numerical algorithm is used in the one-dimensional hydrodynamics and permits this portion of the fluid dynamics to violate the material Courant condition. This technique permits large time steps and, hence, reduced running time for slow transients.

  5. On the extension of modern best-estimate plus uncertainy methodologies to future fast reactor and advanced fuel licensing - initial evaluation of issues

    SciTech Connect

    Unal, Cetin; Mcclure, Patrick R

    2009-01-01

    precedence in the NRC. The method is generically referred to as a 'Best Estimate plus Uncertainty' approach (BE+U), since the goal of the methodology is to compare the model value (best estimate) plus any uncertainty to a figure of merit like cladding temperature. The challenges for extending the BE+U (1) method for fuel qualification for an Advanced Reactor Fuel are driven by: schedule, the need for data, the data sufficiency, the identification of important phenomenon, the process of validation (with focus on the multi-scale model), and the need to produce and extended best estimate plus uncertainty methodology. This paper examines these issues an offers up a proposed set of methods that extend the current BE+U methodology address most if not all of these challenges.

  6. Aerosol Best Estimate Value-Added Product

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, C; Turner, D; Koontz, A; Chand, D; Sivaraman, C

    2012-07-19

    The objective of the Aerosol Best Estimate (AEROSOLBE) value-added product (VAP) is to provide vertical profiles of aerosol extinction, single scatter albedo, asymmetry parameter, and Angstroem exponents for the atmospheric column above the Central Facility at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. We expect that AEROSOLBE will provide nearly continuous estimates of aerosol optical properties under a range of conditions (clear, broken clouds, overcast clouds, etc.). The primary requirement of this VAP was to provide an aerosol data set as continuous as possible in both time and height for the Broadband Heating Rate Profile (BBHRP) VAP in order to provide a structure for the comprehensive assessment of our ability to model atmospheric radiative transfer for all conditions. Even though BBHRP has been completed, AEROSOLBE results are very valuable for environmental, atmospheric, and climate research.

  7. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, S.; Jensen, M.; McCoy, R. B.; Klein, S. A.; Cederwall, R. T.; Wiscombe, W. J.; Clothiaux, E. E.; Gaustad, K. L.; Golaz, J.-C.; Hall, S.; Johnson, K. L.; Lin, Y.; Long, C. N.; Mather, J. H.; McCord, R. A.; McFarlane, S. A.; Palanisamy, G.; Shi, Y.; Turner, D. D.

    2010-01-01

    can hamper the use of ACRF data by the climate community. To make ACRF data better serve the needs of climate studies and model development, ARM has developed a data product specifically tailored for use by the climate community. The new data product, named the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) dataset, assembles those quantities that are both well observed by ACRF over many years and are often used in model evaluation into one single dataset. The CMBE product consists of hourly averages and thus has temporal resolution comparable to a typical resolution used in climate model output. It also includes standard deviations within the averaged hour and quality control flags for the selected quantities to indicate the temporal variability and data quality. Since its initial release in February 2008, the new data product has quickly drawn the attention of the climate modeling community. It is being used for model evaluation by two major U.S. climate modeling centers, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of CMBE data and a few examples that demonstrate the potential value of CMBE data for climate modeling and in studies of cloud processes and climate variability and change.

  8. Ares I-X Best Estimated Trajectory Analysis and Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karlgaard, Christopher D.; Beck, Roger E.; Starr, Brett R.; Derry, Stephen D.; Brandon, Jay; Olds, Aaron D.

    2011-01-01

    The Ares I-X trajectory reconstruction produced best estimated trajectories of the flight test vehicle ascent through stage separation, and of the first and upper stage entries after separation. The trajectory reconstruction process combines on-board, ground-based, and atmospheric measurements to produce the trajectory estimates. The Ares I-X vehicle had a number of on-board and ground based sensors that were available, including inertial measurement units, radar, air-data, and weather balloons. However, due to problems with calibrations and/or data, not all of the sensor data were used. The trajectory estimate was generated using an Iterative Extended Kalman Filter algorithm, which is an industry standard processing algorithm for filtering and estimation applications. This paper describes the methodology and results of the trajectory reconstruction process, including flight data preprocessing and input uncertainties, trajectory estimation algorithms, output transformations, and comparisons with preflight predictions.

  9. Advanced hydrologic prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Connelly, Brian A.; Braatz, Dean T.; Halquist, John B.; Deweese, Michael M.; Larson, Lee; Ingram, John J.

    1999-08-01

    As our Nation's population and infrastructure grow, natural disasters are becoming a greater threat to our society's stability. In an average year, inland flooding claims 133 lives and resulting property losses exceed 4.0 billion. Last year, 1997, these losses totaled 8.7 billion. Because of this blossoming threat, the National Weather Service (NWS) has requested funding within its 2000 budget to begin national implementation of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS). With this system in place the NWS will be able to utilize precipitation and climate predictions to provide extended probabilistic river forecasts for risk-based decisions. In addition to flood and drought mitigation benefits, extended river forecasts will benefit water resource managers in decision making regarding water supply, agriculture, navigation, hydropower, and ecosystems. It's estimated that AHPS, if implemented nationwide, would save lives and provide $677 million per year in economic benefits. AHPS is used currently on the Des Moines River basin in Iowa and will be implemented soon on the Minnesota River basin in Minnesota. Experience gained from user interaction is leading to refined and enhanced product formats and displays. This discussion will elaborate on the technical requirements associated with AHPS implementation, its enhanced products and informational displays, and further refinements based on customer feedback.

  10. The ARM Best Estimate 2-dimensional Gridded Surface

    SciTech Connect

    Xie,Shaocheng; Qi, Tang

    2015-06-15

    The ARM Best Estimate 2-dimensional Gridded Surface (ARMBE2DGRID) data set merges together key surface measurements at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) sites and interpolates the data to a regular 2D grid to facilitate data application. Data from the original site locations can be found in the ARM Best Estimate Station-based Surface (ARMBESTNS) data set.

  11. Predicting Epileptic Seizures in Advance

    PubMed Central

    Moghim, Negin; Corne, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epilepsy is the second most common neurological disorder, affecting 0.6–0.8% of the world's population. In this neurological disorder, abnormal activity of the brain causes seizures, the nature of which tend to be sudden. Antiepileptic Drugs (AEDs) are used as long-term therapeutic solutions that control the condition. Of those treated with AEDs, 35% become resistant to medication. The unpredictable nature of seizures poses risks for the individual with epilepsy. It is clearly desirable to find more effective ways of preventing seizures for such patients. The automatic detection of oncoming seizures, before their actual onset, can facilitate timely intervention and hence minimize these risks. In addition, advance prediction of seizures can enrich our understanding of the epileptic brain. In this study, drawing on the body of work behind automatic seizure detection and prediction from digitised Invasive Electroencephalography (EEG) data, a prediction algorithm, ASPPR (Advance Seizure Prediction via Pre-ictal Relabeling), is described. ASPPR facilitates the learning of predictive models targeted at recognizing patterns in EEG activity that are in a specific time window in advance of a seizure. It then exploits advanced machine learning coupled with the design and selection of appropriate features from EEG signals. Results, from evaluating ASPPR independently on 21 different patients, suggest that seizures for many patients can be predicted up to 20 minutes in advance of their onset. Compared to benchmark performance represented by a mean S1-Score (harmonic mean of Sensitivity and Specificity) of 90.6% for predicting seizure onset between 0 and 5 minutes in advance, ASPPR achieves mean S1-Scores of: 96.30% for prediction between 1 and 6 minutes in advance, 96.13% for prediction between 8 and 13 minutes in advance, 94.5% for prediction between 14 and 19 minutes in advance, and 94.2% for prediction between 20 and 25 minutes in advance. PMID:24911316

  12. The Best Estimated Trajectory Analysis for Pad Abort One

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kutty, Prasad; Noonan, Meghan; Karlgaard, Christopher; Beck, Roger

    2011-01-01

    I. Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) objective: a) Produce reconstructed trajectory of the PA-1 flight to understand vehicle dynamics and aid other post flight analyses. b) Leverage all measurement sources taken of vehicle during flight to produce the most accurate estimate of vehicle trajectory. c) Generate trajectory reconstructions of the Crew Module (CM), Launch Abort System (LAS), and Forward Bay Cover (FBC). II. BET analysis was started immediately following the PA-1 mission and was completed in September, 2010 a) Quick look version of BET released 5/25/2010: initial repackaging of SIGI data. b) Preliminary version of BET released 7/6/2010: first blended solution using available sources of external measurements. c) Final version of BET released 9/1/2010: final blended solution using all available sources of data.

  13. New best estimates for radionuclide solid-liquid distribution coefficients in soils. Part 3: miscellany of radionuclides (Cd, Co, Ni, Zn, I, Se, Sb, Pu, Am, and others).

    PubMed

    Gil-García, C; Tagami, K; Uchida, S; Rigol, A; Vidal, M

    2009-09-01

    New best estimates for the solid-liquid distribution coefficient (K(d)) for a set of radionuclides are proposed, based on a selective data search and subsequent calculation of geometric means. The K(d) best estimates are calculated for soils grouped according to the texture and organic matter content. For a limited number of radionuclides this is extended to consider soil cofactors affecting soil-radionuclide interaction, such as pH, organic matter content, and radionuclide chemical speciation. Correlations between main soil properties and radionuclide K(d) are examined to complete the information derived from the best estimates with a rough prediction of K(d) based on soil parameters. Although there are still gaps for many radionuclides, new data from recent studies improve the calculation of K(d) best estimates for a number of radionuclides, such as selenium, antimony, and iodine.

  14. Best Estimate Radiation Flux Value-Added Procedure. Algorithm Operational Details and Explanations

    SciTech Connect

    Shi, Y.; Long, C. N.

    2002-10-01

    This document describes some specifics of the algorithm for best estimate evaluation of radiation fluxes at Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility (CF). It uses the data available from the three co-located surface radiometer platforms at the SGP CF to automatically determine the best estimate of the irradiance measurements available. The Best Estimate Flux (BEFlux) value-added procedure (VAP) was previously named Best Estimate ShortWave (BESW) VAP, which included all of the broadband and spectral shortwave (SW) measurements for the SGP CF. In BESW, multiple measurements of the same quantities were handled simply by designating one as the primary measurement and using all others to merely fill in any gaps. Thus, this “BESW” is better termed “most continuous,” since no additional quality assessment was applied. We modified the algorithm in BESW to use the average of the closest two measurements as the best estimate when possible, if these measurements pass all quality assessment criteria. Furthermore, we included longwave (LW) fields in the best estimate evaluation to include all major components of the surface radiative energy budget, and renamed the VAP to Best Estimate Flux (BEFLUX1LONG).

  15. Best Estimate Radiation Flux Value-Added Procedure: Algorithm Operational Details and Explanations

    SciTech Connect

    Shi, Y; Long, CN

    2002-10-01

    This document describes some specifics of the algorithm for best estimate evaluation of radiation fluxes at Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility (CF). It uses the data available from the three co-located surface radiometer platforms at the SGP CF to automatically determine the best estimate of the irradiance measurements available. The Best Estimate Flux (BEFlux) value-added procedure (VAP) was previously named Best Estimate ShortWave (BESW) VAP, which included all of the broadband and spectral shortwave (SW) measurements for the SGP CF. In BESW, multiple measurements of the same quantities were handled simply by designating one as the primary measurement and using all others to merely fill in any gaps. Thus, this “BESW” is better termed “most continuous,” since no additional quality assessment was applied. We modified the algorithm in BESW to use the average of the closest two measurements as the best estimate when possible, if these measurements pass all quality assessment criteria. Furthermore, we included longwave (LW) fields in the best estimate evaluation to include all major components of the surface radiative energy budget, and renamed the VAP to Best Estimate Flux (BEFLUX1LONG).

  16. Predicting Career Advancement with Structural Equation Modelling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heimler, Ronald; Rosenberg, Stuart; Morote, Elsa-Sofia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to use the authors' prior findings concerning basic employability skills in order to determine which skills best predict career advancement potential. Design/methodology/approach: Utilizing survey responses of human resource managers, the employability skills showing the largest relationships to career…

  17. Predictive Dynamic Security Assessment through Advanced Computing

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Zhenyu; Diao, Ruisheng; Jin, Shuangshuang; Chen, Yousu

    2014-11-30

    Abstract— Traditional dynamic security assessment is limited by several factors and thus falls short in providing real-time information to be predictive for power system operation. These factors include the steady-state assumption of current operating points, static transfer limits, and low computational speed. This addresses these factors and frames predictive dynamic security assessment. The primary objective of predictive dynamic security assessment is to enhance the functionality and computational process of dynamic security assessment through the use of high-speed phasor measurements and the application of advanced computing technologies for faster-than-real-time simulation. This paper presents algorithms, computing platforms, and simulation frameworks that constitute the predictive dynamic security assessment capability. Examples of phasor application and fast computation for dynamic security assessment are included to demonstrate the feasibility and speed enhancement for real-time applications.

  18. Stream temperature estimated in situ from thermal-infrared images: best estimate and uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iezzi, F.; Todisco, M. T.

    2015-11-01

    The paper aims to show a technique to estimate in situ the stream temperature from thermal-infrared images deepening its best estimate and uncertainty. Stream temperature is an important indicator of water quality and nowadays its assessment is important particularly for thermal pollution monitoring in water bodies. Stream temperature changes are especially due to the anthropogenic heat input from urban wastewater and from water used as a coolant by power plants and industrial manufacturers. The stream temperatures assessment using ordinary techniques (e.g. appropriate thermometers) is limited by sparse sampling in space due to a spatial discretization necessarily punctual. Latest and most advanced techniques assess the stream temperature using thermal-infrared remote sensing based on thermal imagers placed usually on aircrafts or using satellite images. These techniques assess only the surface water temperature and they are suitable to detect the temperature of vast water bodies but do not allow a detailed and precise surface water temperature assessment in limited areas of the water body. The technique shown in this research is based on the assessment of thermal-infrared images obtained in situ via portable thermal imager. As in all thermographic techniques, also in this technique, it is possible to estimate only the surface water temperature. A stream with the presence of a discharge of urban wastewater is proposed as case study to validate the technique and to show its application limits. Since the technique analyzes limited areas in extension of the water body, it allows a detailed and precise assessment of the water temperature. In general, the punctual and average stream temperatures are respectively uncorrected and corrected. An appropriate statistical method that minimizes the errors in the average stream temperature is proposed. The correct measurement of this temperature through the assessment of thermal- infrared images obtained in situ via portable

  19. The ARM Best Estimate Station-based Surface (ARMBESTNS) Data set

    SciTech Connect

    Qi,Tang; Xie,Shaocheng

    2015-08-06

    The ARM Best Estimate Station-based Surface (ARMBESTNS) data set merges together key surface measurements from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) sites. It is a twin data product of the ARM Best Estimate 2-dimensional Gridded Surface (ARMBE2DGRID) data set. Unlike the 2DGRID data set, the STNS data are reported at the original site locations and show the original information, except for the interpolation over time. Therefore, users have the flexibility to process the data with the approach more suitable for their applications.

  20. Best-estimate LOCA radiation signature for equipment qualification. [PWR; BWR

    SciTech Connect

    Lurie, N.A.; Bonzon, L.L.

    1980-01-01

    The radiation aspect of reactor equipment qualification depends on a knowledge of the appropriate source term. An attempt has been made to define a realistic radiation source corresponding to the loss-of-coolant accident. This best-estimate source is based on available fission product release data from damaged fuel during an unterminated LOCA as described in the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400). Energy release rates as a function of time have been calculated for both betas and gamma rays. The results are significantly different from the sources specified in Regulatory Guide 1.89. Spectra corresponding to the best-estimate source have also been computed at selected cooling times.

  1. Advancements in predictive plasma formation modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Purvis, Michael A.; Schafgans, Alexander; Brown, Daniel J. W.; Fomenkov, Igor; Rafac, Rob; Brown, Josh; Tao, Yezheng; Rokitski, Slava; Abraham, Mathew; Vargas, Mike; Rich, Spencer; Taylor, Ted; Brandt, David; Pirati, Alberto; Fisher, Aaron; Scott, Howard; Koniges, Alice; Eder, David; Wilks, Scott; Link, Anthony; Langer, Steven

    2016-03-01

    We present highlights from plasma simulations performed in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Labs. This modeling is performed to advance the rate of learning about optimal EUV generation for laser produced plasmas and to provide insights where experimental results are not currently available. The goal is to identify key physical processes necessary for an accurate and predictive model capable of simulating a wide range of conditions. This modeling will help to drive source performance scaling in support of the EUV Lithography roadmap. The model simulates pre-pulse laser interaction with the tin droplet and follows the droplet expansion into the main pulse target zone. Next, the interaction of the expanded droplet with the main laser pulse is simulated. We demonstrate the predictive nature of the code and provide comparison with experimental results.

  2. Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem

  3. Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Best Estimate (CSSEFARMBE)

    SciTech Connect

    Riihimaki, Laura D.; Gaustad, Krista L.; McFarlane, Sally A.

    2012-09-28

    The Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) project is working to improve the representation of the hydrological cycle in global climate models, critical information necessary for decision-makers to respond appropriately to predictions of future climate. In order to accomplish this objective, CSSEF is building testbeds to implement uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques to objectively calibrate and diagnose climate model parameterizations and predictions with respect to local, process-scale observations. In order to quantify the agreement between models and observations accurately, uncertainty estimates on these observations are needed. The DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program takes atmospheric and climate related measurements at three permanent locations worldwide. The ARM VAP called the ARM Best Estimate (ARMBE) [Xie et al., 2010] collects a subset of ARM observations, performs quality control checks, averages them to one hour temporal resolution, and puts them in a standard format for ease of use by climate modelers. ARMBE has been widely used by the climate modeling community as a summary product of many of the ARM observations. However, the ARMBE product does not include uncertainty estimates on the data values. Thus, to meet the objectives of the CSSEF project and enable better use of this data with UQ techniques, we created the CSSEFARMBE data set. Only a subset of the variables contained in ARMBE is included in CSSEFARMBE. Currently only surface meteorological observations are included, though this may be expanded to include other variables in the future. The CSSEFARMBE VAP is produced for all extended facilities at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site that contain surface meteorological equipment. This extension of the ARMBE data set to multiple facilities at SGP allows for better comparison between model grid boxes and the ARM point observations. In the future, CSSEFARMBE may also be created for other ARM sites. As

  4. Weather Prediction Improvement Using Advanced Satellite Technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Einaudi, Franco; Uccellini, L.; Purdom, J.; Rogers, D.; Gelaro, R.; Dodge, J.; Atlas, R.; Lord, S.

    2001-01-01

    We discuss in this paper some of the problems that exist today in the fall utilization of satellite data to improve weather forecasts and we propose specific recommendations to solve them. This discussion can be viewed as an aspect of the general debate on how best to organize the transition from research to operational satellites and how to evaluate the impact of a research instrument on numerical weather predictions. A method for providing this transition is offered by the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP). This mission will bridge the time between the present NOAA and Department of Defense (DOD) polar orbiting missions and the initiation of the converged NPOESS series and will evaluate some of the Earth Observing System (EOS) instruments as appropriate for operational missions. Thus, this mission can be viewed as an effort to meet the operational requirements of NOAA and DOD and the research requirements of NASA. More generally, however, it can be said that the process of going from the conception of new, more advanced instruments to their operational implementation and full utilization by the weather forecast communities is not optimal. Instruments developed for research purposes may have insufficient funding to explore their potential operational capabilities. Furthermore, instrument development programs designed for operational satellites typically have insufficient funding for assimilation algorithms needed to transform the satellite observations into data that can be used by sophisticated global weather forecast models. As a result, years often go by before satellite data are efficiently used for operational forecasts. NASA and NOAA each have unique expertise in the design of satellite instruments, their use for basic and applied research and their utilization in weather and climate research. At a time of limited resources, the two agencies must combine their efforts to work toward common

  5. The BEMUSE programme: Best-estimate methods uncertainty and sensitivity evaluation - Phase 2

    SciTech Connect

    Petruzzi, A.; D'Auria, F.; De Crecy, A.

    2006-07-01

    The BEMUSE (Best Estimate Methods - Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation) Programme has been promoted by the Working Group on Accident Management and Analysis (GAMA) and endorsed by the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) [1]. The high-level objectives of the work are: To evaluate the practicability, the quality and the reliability of Best-Estimate (BE) methods including uncertainty evaluation in applications relevant to nuclear reactor safety; To promote the use of BE-Methods by the regulatory bodies and the industry. Operational objectives include an assessment of the applicability of best-estimate and uncertainty methods to integral tests and their use in reactor applications. The present paper deals with the activities performed by the participants during the Phase II of BEMUSE. It is connected with the re-analysis of the Experiment L2-5 performed in the LOFT facility using different thermal-hydraulic system codes. The technological importance of the activity can be derived from the following: a) LOFT is the only Integral Test Facility with a nuclear core where safety experiments have been performed; b) The ISP-13 was completed more than 20 years ago and open issues remained from the analysis of the comparison between measured and calculated trends The consideration of the BE codes and uncertainty evaluation for Design Basis Accident (DBA), by itself, shows the safety significance of the proposed activity. End users of the results are expected to be the industry, the safety authorities and the research laboratories. Main achievements of the Phase II can be summarized as follows: - Almost all performed calculations appear qualified against the fixed criteria; - Dispersion bands of reference results appear substantially less than in ISP-13. (authors)

  6. Radiatively Important Parameters Best Estimate (RIPBE): An ARM Value-Added Product

    SciTech Connect

    McFarlane, S; Shippert, T; Mather, J

    2011-06-30

    The Radiatively Important Parameters Best Estimate (RIPBE) VAP was developed to create a complete set of clearly identified set of parameters on a uniform vertical and temporal grid to use as input to a radiative transfer model. One of the main drivers for RIPBE was as input to the Broadband Heating Rate Profile (BBHRP) VAP, but we also envision using RIPBE files for user-run radiative transfer codes, as part of cloud/aerosol retrieval testbeds, and as input to averaged datastreams for model evaluation.

  7. Last menstrual period provides the best estimate of gestation length for women in rural Guatemala.

    PubMed

    Neufeld, Lynnette M; Haas, Jere D; Grajéda, Ruben; Martorell, Reynaldo

    2006-07-01

    The accurate estimation of gestational age in field studies in rural areas of developing countries continues to present difficulties for researchers. Our objective was to determine the best method for gestational age estimation in rural Guatemala. Women of childbearing age from four communities in rural Guatemala were invited to participate in a longitudinal study. Gestational age at birth was determined by an early second trimester measure of biparietal diameter, last menstrual period (LMP), the Capurro neonatal examination and symphysis-fundus height (SFH) for 171 women-infant pairs. Regression modelling was used to determine which method provided the best estimate of gestational age using ultrasound as the reference. Gestational age estimated by LMP was within +/-14 days of the ultrasound estimate for 94% of the sample. LMP-estimated gestational age explained 46% of the variance in gestational age estimated by ultrasound whereas the neonatal examination explained only 20%. The results of this study suggest that, when trained field personnel assist women to recall their date of LMP, this date provides the best estimate of gestational age. SFH measured during the second trimester may provide a reasonable alternative when LMP is unavailable.

  8. Recent Advances in Predictive (Machine) Learning

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, J

    2004-01-24

    Prediction involves estimating the unknown value of an attribute of a system under study given the values of other measured attributes. In prediction (machine) learning the prediction rule is derived from data consisting of previously solved cases. Most methods for predictive learning were originated many years ago at the dawn of the computer age. Recently two new techniques have emerged that have revitalized the field. These are support vector machines and boosted decision trees. This paper provides an introduction to these two new methods tracing their respective ancestral roots to standard kernel methods and ordinary decision trees.

  9. Advanced technology wind shear prediction system evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gering, Greg

    1992-01-01

    The program overviews: (1) American Airline (AA)/Turbulence Prediction Systems (TPS), which have installed forward looking infrared predictive windshear system on 3 MD-80 aircraft; (2) AA/TPS AWAS III evaluation, which is a joint effort and is installed in the noise landing gear (NLG) area and a data recorder installed in the E/E compartment.

  10. Predicting success on the Advanced Placement Biology Examination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shepherd, Lesa Hanlin

    Four hundred sixty students in four public high schools were used as subjects to determine which of eleven academic and demographic factors studied were significant predictors of success for the Advanced Placement Biology Examination. Factors studied were attendance, class rank, gender, grade level at the time of the examination, grade point average, level of prerequisite biology course, number of Advanced Placement Examinations taken in the year prior to the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, number of Advanced Placement Examinations taken in the same year as the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, proposed major in college, race, and SAT mathematics, verbal, and combined score. Significant relationships were found to exist between the Advanced Placement Biology Examination score and attendance, class rank, gender, grade level at the time of the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, grade point average, number of Advanced Placement Examinations taken in the year prior to the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, number of Advanced Placement Examinations taken in the same year as the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, race, and SAT scores. Significant relationships were not found to exist between Advanced Placement Biology Examination score and level prerequisite biology course and Advanced Placement Biology Examination score and proposed major in college. A multiple regression showed the best combination of predictors to be attendance, SAT verbal score, and SAT mathematics score. Discriminant analysis showed the variables in this study to be good predictors of whether the student would pass the Advanced Placement Biology Examination (score a 3, 4, or 5) or fail the Advanced Placement Biology Examination (score a 1 or 2). These results demonstrated that significant predictors for the Advanced Placement Biology Examination do exist and can be used to assist in the prediction of scores, prediction of passing or failing, the identification of

  11. Radiatively important parameters best estimate (RIPBE) value-added product (VAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Shippert,T.; Jensen,M.; McFarlane, S.; Mather, J.; Flynn, C.; Mlawer, E.; Delamere, J.; Oreopoulos, L.; Turner, D.; Xie, S.

    2010-03-15

    Currently, to calculate radiative heating rate profiles for the Broadband Heating Rate Profile (BBHRP) product, radiatively important parameters (water vapor, ozone, surface albedo, aerosol properties, and cloud properties) from multiple VAPs and datastreams are combined into input text files that are then used to run the RRTM radiative transfer codes. These input parameters have different temporal and spatial scales and are difficult to extract from the text files to be used for other purposes such as running other radiative transfer codes, analyzing results, or error tracking. The purpose of the Radiatively Important Parameters Best Estimate (RIPBE) VAP is to improve this process by creating a clearly identified set of inputs for BBHRP (and other radiation codes) on a uniform vertical and temporal grid. This process will decouple the input/output portion of the BBHRP from the core physics (the RRTM radiative transfer model) and will add error tracking and version information to the input data set. Critical parameters (which must exist for the radiation code to be run) will be designated; for other parameters, climatological or fixed values will be used when the preferred values are missing. This should increase the number of cases for which radiative transfer calculations can be run. In all cases, flags will clearly identify the source for each parameter. RIPBE will serve multiple functions: (1) it will provide a clearly identifiable set of inputs for BBHRP, (2) it will facilitate the use of BBHRP as a retrieval and radiation code development testbed by providing a vehicle for easily extracting and swapping input parameters needed to conduct radiative transfer calculations, and (3) it will be a complement to the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) VAP and will provide a significantly expanded set of parameters for model evaluation in a showcase data set form. At the ASR meeting, we will present examples and evaluation of the initial RIPBE dataset at SGP.

  12. Predicting RNA structure: advances and limitations.

    PubMed

    Hofacker, Ivo L; Lorenz, Ronny

    2014-01-01

    RNA secondary structures can be predicted using efficient algorithms. A widely used software package implementing a large number of computational methods is the ViennaRNA Package. This chapter describes how to use programs from the ViennaRNA Package to perform common tasks such as prediction of minimum free-energy structures, suboptimal structures, or base pairing probabilities, and generating secondary structure plots with reliability annotation. Moreover, we present recent methods to assess the folding kinetics of an RNA via 2D projections of the energy landscape, identification of local minima and energy barriers, or simulation of RNA folding as a Markov process.

  13. A Site Atmospheric State Best Estimate of Temperature for Lauder, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tradowsky, J. S.; Bodeker, G. E.; Querel, R.; Builtjes, P. J. H.; Fischer, J.; Lewis, J.

    2015-12-01

    To detect and attribute changes in local and global climate, long-term observations of the atmosphere are essential. The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) has defined 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), which are fundamental for understanding the climate system. To fill a long recognized need of the climate monitoring community for reference quality measurements of upper air ECVs, the GCOS Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) was established and is now operational. This study presents a temporally highly-resolved Site Atmospheric State Best Estimate of temperature (T-SASBE) for the GRUAN site at Lauder, New Zealand. In a SASBE all available measurements of a selected ECV at one specific site (and possibly including estimates obtained from measurements made elsewhere) are merged to produce a best estimate of the value of that ECV and the uncertainty on each datum.The first version of T-SASBE, extending from 1996 to 2006, combines measurements from: (i) weekly radiosondes launched at Lauder, (ii) 10-minute data obtained from the surface weather station at Lauder and (iii) twice-daily radiosondes launched at Invercargill, about 200km south-west of Lauder. Later versions of T-SASBE will extend the time period and include further measurements made at Lauder.The temperature profiles measured at Invercargill are included in T-SASBE to provide an estimate of the vertical structure in temperature at times between the once-weekly radiosonde flights at Lauder. Corrections to the Invercargill measurements were derived by applying a regression model to temperature profiles measured at Lauder and Invercargill within 12 hours of each other. Different predictor variables, including wind speed and surface pressure, were tested and the quality of the regression model was evaluated. The regression model with the best combination of the predictor variables was used to correct the Invercargill temperature profiles and use them as a valid proxy for 12-hourly temperature profiles

  14. Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bao, Han P.; Samareh, J. A.; Weston, R. P.

    2002-01-01

    For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This paper outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are soared according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this paper is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool.

  15. Orion Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) Best Estimated Trajectory Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holt, Greg N.; Brown, Aaron

    2016-01-01

    The Orion Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) mission successfully flew on Dec 5, 2014 atop a Delta IV Heavy launch vehicle. The goal of Orions maiden flight was to stress the system by placing an uncrewed vehicle on a high-energy trajectory replicating conditions similar to those that would be experienced when returning from an asteroid or a lunar mission. The Orion navigation team combined all trajectory data from the mission into a Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) product. There were significant challenges in data reconstruction and many lessons were learned for future missions. The team used an estimation filter incorporating radar tracking, onboard sensors (Global Positioning System and Inertial Measurement Unit), and day-of-flight weather balloons to evaluate the true trajectory flown by Orion. Data was published for the entire Orion EFT-1 flight, plus objects jettisoned during entry such as the Forward Bay Cover. The BET customers include approximately 20 disciplines within Orion who will use the information for evaluating vehicle performance and influencing future design decisions.

  16. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data - A new data product for climate modelers

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, Shaocheng; McCoy, Renata; Klein, Stephen A.; Cederwall, Richard T.; Wiscombe, Warren J.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Gaustad, Krista L.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Hall, Stefanie; Jensen, Michael; Johnson, Karen L.; Lin, Yanluan; Long, Charles N.; Mather, James H.; McCord, Raymond A.; McFarlane, Sally A.; Palanisamy, Giriprakash; Shi, Yan; Turner, David D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of a new data product, named the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) dataset, developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program in order to better serve the need of climate model developers and encourage greater use of ARM data by modelers. The CMBE dataset contains those quantities that are often used in model evaluation and reflect unique ARM measurements of clouds and radiation (e.g., cloud occurrence, liquid water path, and surface radiative fluxes) from the highest quality data that ARM has for many years. The data are averaged over one hour period, which is comparable to a typical temporal resolution used in climate model output. They are currently available at five ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF) sites located at the Southern Great Plains, North Slope of Alaska, and Tropic Western Pacific, and can be obtained from the ACRF data archive. The long-term continuous ARM data provide invaluable information to improve our understanding of the interaction between clouds and radiation and a solid observational basis for model validation and improvement. This paper shows some examples to demonstrate its unique values in studies of cloud processes, climate variability and change, and climate modeling. Plans for future enhancements of the CMBE product are also discussed.

  17. Scalable three-dimensional thermal-hydraulic best-estimate code BAGIRA

    SciTech Connect

    Vasenin, V. A.; Krivchikov, M. A.; Kroshilin, V. E.; Kroshilin, A. E.; Roganov, V. A.

    2012-07-01

    The three-dimensional thermal-hydraulic best-estimate code BAGIRA for modeling of multi-phase flows was developed without any artificial physical assumptions or simplifications. The mathematical model is based on numerical approximations of exact three-dimensional equations, including effective multi-dimensional models for turbulent heat and mass transfer. With use of BAGIRA All-Russian Scientific Research Inst. of Nuclear Power Plants (VNIIAES) has developed a full-scope and analytical simulators using BAGIRA for a number of power plants with VVER-1000 and RBMK type design, which are being used in Kalinin, Kursk, Smolensk, Chernobyl, and Bilibino NPPs. The comparison of calculated and experimental results shows that BAGIRA can successfully reproduce the most important processes observed in experiments. BAGIRA is implemented in FORTRAN. It is a relatively complicated code that tends to decompose task by aspects. Such a style is welcoming for extensions, which can be added without code redesign. We would like to present an aspect-oriented mix-in approach for BAGIRA code extension. It allows to make it scalable in number of directions leaving original code base untouched. It is possible to add new effects/units, and even to produce a supercomputer version of the code. The last is a key point today due to availability of low-cost compact supercomputers, which makes building compact NPP simulators possible. (authors)

  18. Raman Lidar Profiles Best Estimate Value-Added Product Technical Report

    SciTech Connect

    Newson, R

    2012-01-18

    The ARM Raman lidars are semi-autonomous ground-based systems that transmit at a wavelength of 355 nm with 300 mJ, {approx}5 ns pulses, and a pulse repetition frequency of 30Hz. Signals from the various detection channels are processed to produce time- and height-resolved estimates of several geophysical quantities, such as water vapor mixing ratio, relative humidity, aerosol scattering ratio, backscatter, optical depth, extinction, and depolarization ratio. Data processing is currently handled by a suite of six value-added product (VAP) processes. Collectively, these processes are known as the Raman Lidar Profiles VAP (RLPROF). The top-level best-estimate (BE) VAP process was introduced in order to bring together the most relevant information from the intermediate-level VAPs. As such, the BE process represents the final stage in data processing for the Raman lidar. Its principal function is to extract the primary variables from each of the intermediate-level VAPs, perform additional quality control, and combine all of this information into a single output file for the end-user. The focus of this document is to describe the processing performed by the BE VAP process.

  19. Advances in tilt rotor noise prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    George, A. R.; Coffen, C. D.; Ringler, T. D.

    1992-01-01

    The two most serious tilt rotor external noise problems, hover noise and blade-vortex interaction noise, are studied. The results of flow visualization and inflow velocity measurements document a complex, recirculating highly unsteady and turbulent flow due to the rotor-wing-body interactions characteristic of tilt rotors. The wing under the rotor is found to obstruct the inflow, causing a deficit in the inflow velocities over the inboard region of the rotor. Discrete frequency harmonic thickness and loading noise mechanisms in hover are examined by first modeling tilt rotor hover aerodynamics and then applying various noise prediction methods using the WOPWOP code. The analysis indicates that the partial ground plane created by the wing below the rotor results in a primary sound source for hover.

  20. A Primer In Advanced Fatigue Life Prediction Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.

    2000-01-01

    Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelop is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelop as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

  1. Peach Bottom 2 Turbine Trip Simulation Using TRAC-BF1/COS3D, a Best-Estimate Coupled 3-D Core and Thermal-Hydraulic Code System

    SciTech Connect

    Ui, Atsushi; Miyaji, Takamasa

    2004-10-15

    The best-estimate coupled three-dimensional (3-D) core and thermal-hydraulic code system TRAC-BF1/COS3D has been developed. COS3D, based on a modified one-group neutronic model, is a 3-D core simulator used for licensing analyses and core management of commercial boiling water reactor (BWR) plants in Japan. TRAC-BF1 is a plant simulator based on a two-fluid model. TRAC-BF1/COS3D is a coupled system of both codes, which are connected using a parallel computing tool. This code system was applied to the OECD/NRC BWR Turbine Trip Benchmark. Since the two-group cross-section tables are provided by the benchmark team, COS3D was modified to apply to this specification. Three best-estimate scenarios and four hypothetical scenarios were calculated using this code system. In the best-estimate scenario, the predicted core power with TRAC-BF1/COS3D is slightly underestimated compared with the measured data. The reason seems to be a slight difference in the core boundary conditions, that is, pressure changes and the core inlet flow distribution, because the peak in this analysis is sensitive to them. However, the results of this benchmark analysis show that TRAC-BF1/COS3D gives good precision for the prediction of the actual BWR transient behavior on the whole. Furthermore, the results with the modified one-group model and the two-group model were compared to verify the application of the modified one-group model to this benchmark. This comparison shows that the results of the modified one-group model are appropriate and sufficiently precise.

  2. Advanced propeller noise prediction in the time domain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farassat, F.; Dunn, M. H.; Spence, P. L.

    1992-01-01

    The time domain code ASSPIN gives acousticians a powerful technique of advanced propeller noise prediction. Except for nonlinear effects, the code uses exact solutions of the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equation with exact blade geometry and kinematics. By including nonaxial inflow, periodic loading noise, and adaptive time steps to accelerate computer execution, the development of this code becomes complete.

  3. Predictive Biomarkers to Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Conde-Muíño, Raquel; Cuadros, Marta; Zambudio, Natalia; Segura-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Cano, Carlos; Palma, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    There has been a high local recurrence rate in rectal cancer. Besides improvements in surgical techniques, both neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and long-course chemoradiation improve oncological results. Approximately 40–60% of rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation achieve some degree of pathologic response. However, there is no effective method of predicting which patients will respond to neoadjuvant treatment. Recent studies have evaluated the potential of genetic biomarkers to predict outcome in locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation. The articles produced by the PubMed search were reviewed for those specifically addressing a genetic profile's ability to predict response to neoadjuvant treatment in rectal cancer. Although tissue gene microarray profiling has led to promising data in cancer, to date, none of the identified signatures or molecular markers in locally advanced rectal cancer has been successfully validated as a diagnostic or prognostic tool applicable to routine clinical practice. PMID:26504848

  4. Predictive Biomarkers to Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Conde-Muíño, Raquel; Cuadros, Marta; Zambudio, Natalia; Segura-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Cano, Carlos; Palma, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    There has been a high local recurrence rate in rectal cancer. Besides improvements in surgical techniques, both neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and long-course chemoradiation improve oncological results. Approximately 40-60% of rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation achieve some degree of pathologic response. However, there is no effective method of predicting which patients will respond to neoadjuvant treatment. Recent studies have evaluated the potential of genetic biomarkers to predict outcome in locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation. The articles produced by the PubMed search were reviewed for those specifically addressing a genetic profile's ability to predict response to neoadjuvant treatment in rectal cancer. Although tissue gene microarray profiling has led to promising data in cancer, to date, none of the identified signatures or molecular markers in locally advanced rectal cancer has been successfully validated as a diagnostic or prognostic tool applicable to routine clinical practice.

  5. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, A New Data Product for Climate Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, Shaocheng; McCoy, Renata B.; Klein, Stephen A.; Cederwall, Richard T.; Wiscombe, Warren J.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Gaustad, Krista L.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Shamblin, Stefanie H; Jensen, Michael P.; Johnson, Karen L.; Lin, Yanluan; Long, Charles N.; Mather, James H.; McCord, Raymond A; McFarlane, Sally A.; Palanisamy, Giri; Shi, Yan; Turner, David D.

    2010-01-01

    can hamper the use of ACRF data by the climate community. To make ACRF data better serve the needs of climate studies and model development, ARM has developed a data product specifically tailored for use by the climate community. The new data product, named the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) dataset, assembles those quantities that are both well observed by ACRF over many years and are often used in model evaluation into one single dataset. The CMBE product consists of hourly averages and thus has temporal resolution comparable to a typical resolution used in climate model output. It also includes standard deviations within the averaged hour and quality control flags for the selected quantities to indicate the temporal variability and data quality. Since its initial release in February 2008, the new data product has quickly drawn the attention of the climate modeling community. It is being used for model evaluation by two major U.S. climate modeling centers, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of CMBE data and a few examples that demonstrate the potential value of CMBE data for climate modeling and in studies of cloud processes and climate variability and change.

  6. Predictable elastomeric impressions in advanced fixed prosthodontics: a comprehensive review.

    PubMed

    Lee, E A

    1999-05-01

    Despite advances in dental material technology, the predictable procurement of accurate impressions for the fabrication of complex fixed prosthodontic restorations remains an elusive objective. The technical challenges and potential negative sequelae are exponentially magnified in advanced applications that involve multiple abutments and preparatory phases. A protocol for consistently achieving accurate impressions with the use of polyether impression materials and automatic instrumentation is presented and illustrated with multiple clinical examples. The technique is capable of yielding reliable results in extensive cases and requires minimal support from auxiliary personnel.

  7. Predictable elastomeric impressions in advanced fixed prosthodontics: a comprehensive review.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ernesto A

    2007-10-01

    Despite advances in dental material technology, the predictable procurement of accurate impressions for the fabrication of complex fixed prosthodontic restorations remains an elusive objective. The technical challenges and potential negative sequelae are exponentially magnified in advanced applications that involve multiple abutments and preparatory phases. A protocol for consistently achieving accurate impressions with the use of various impression materials and automatic instrumentation is presented and illustrated with multiple clinical examples. The technique is capable of yielding reliable results in extensive cases and requires minimal support from auxiliary personnel.

  8. Life Prediction of Fretting Fatigue with Advanced Surface Treatments (Preprint)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-05-01

    surfaces and not the fretting pads. The chosen coatings included DLC, Ni-B, Molybdenum, and Nitride. These 4 coatings, their application to the titanium ...Article Preprint 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER In-house 5b. GRANT NUMBER 4 . TITLE AND SUBTITLE LIFE PREDICTION OF FRETTING FATIGUE WITH ADVANCED SURFACE...TREATMENTS (PREPRINT) 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER N/A 5d. PROJECT NUMBER M02R 5e. TASK NUMBER 30 6 . AUTHOR(S) Patrick J. Golden and Michael

  9. Best Estimate Method vs Evaluation Method: a comparison of two techniques in evaluating seismic analysis and design

    SciTech Connect

    Bumpus, S.E.; Johnson, J.J.; Smith, P.D.

    1980-05-01

    The concept of how two techniques, Best Estimate Method and Evaluation Method, may be applied to the traditional seismic analysis and design of a nuclear power plant is introduced. Only the four links of the seismic analysis and design methodology chain (SMC) - seismic input, soil-structure interaction, major structural response, and subsystem response - are considered. The objective is to evaluate the compounding of conservatisms in the seismic analysis and design of nuclear power plants, to provide guidance for judgments in the SMC, and to concentrate the evaluation on that part of the seismic analysis and design which is familiar to the engineering community. An example applies the effects of three-dimensional excitations on a model of a nuclear power plant structure. The example demonstrates how conservatisms accrue by coupling two links in the SMC and comparing those results to the effects of one link alone. The utility of employing the Best Estimate Method vs the Evaluation Method is also demonstrated.

  10. Final STS-11 (41-B) best estimate trajectory products: Development and results from the first Cape landing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, G. M.; Mcconnell, J. G.; Findlay, J. T.; Heck, M. L.; Henry, M. W.

    1984-01-01

    The STS-11 (41-B) postflight data processing is completed and the results published. The final reconstructed entry trajectory is presented. The various atmospheric sources available for this flight are discussed. Aerodynamic Best Estimate of Trajectory BET generation and plots from this file are presented. A definition of the major maneuvers effected is given. Physical constants, including spacecraft mass properties; final residuals from the reconstruction process; trajectory parameter listings; and an archival section are included.

  11. Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Rong; Duan, Wansuo; Mu, Mu

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we explored potential observing locations (i.e., the sensitive areas) of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events to advance beyond the winter predictability barrier (WPB) using the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory climate model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1). The sensitivity analysis is conducted through perfect model predictability experiments, in which the model is assumed to be perfect and so any prediction errors are caused by initial errors. The results show that the initial errors with an east-west dipole pattern are more likely to result in a significant WPB than spatially correlated noises; the areas where the large values of the dipole pattern initial errors are located have great effects on prediction uncertainties in winter and provide useful information regarding the sensitive areas. Further, the prediction uncertainties in winter are more sensitive to the initial errors in the subsurface large value areas than to those in the surface large value areas. The results indicate that the subsurface large value areas are sensitive areas for advancing beyond the WPB of IOD predictions and if we carry out intensive observations across these areas, the prediction errors in winter may be largely reduced. This will lead to large improvements in the skill of wintertime IOD event forecasts.

  12. The Italian experience on T/H best estimate codes: Achievements and perspectives

    SciTech Connect

    Alemberti, A.; D`Auria, F.; Fiorino, E.

    1997-07-01

    Themalhydraulic system codes are complex tools developed to simulate the power plants behavior during off-normal conditions. Among the objectives of the code calculations the evaluation of safety margins, the operator training, the optimization of the plant design and of the emergency operating procedures, are mostly considered in the field of the nuclear safety. The first generation of codes was developed in the United States at the end of `60s. Since that time, different research groups all over the world started the development of their own codes. At the beginning of the `80s, the second generation codes were proposed; these differ from the first generation codes owing to the number of balance equations solved (six instead of three), the sophistication of the constitutive models and of the adopted numerics. The capabilities of available computers have been fully exploited during the years. The authors then summarize some of the major steps in the process of developing, modifying, and advancing the capabilities of the codes. They touch on the fact that Italian, and for that matter non-American, researchers have not been intimately involved in much of this work. They then describe the application of these codes in Italy, even though there are no operating or under construction nuclear power plants at this time. Much of this effort is directed at the general question of plant safety in the face of transient type events.

  13. Predicting binary merger event rates for advanced LIGO/Virgo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holz, Daniel; Belczynski, Chris; O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Bulik, Tomek; LIGO Collaboration

    2016-03-01

    We discuss estimates of the rates of mergers of binary systems composed of neutron stars and/or stellar mass black holes. We use the StarTrack population synthesis code, and make predictions for the detection rate of compact binary coalescences with the advanced LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave detectors. Because these instruments are sensitive to massive (M > 20M⊙) stellar-mass binary black holes mergers out to high redshift (z > 1), we discuss the cosmological effects which must be taken into account when calculating LIGO detection rates, including a generalization of the calculation of the ``peanut factor'' and the sensitive time-volume.

  14. Advances in the assessment and prediction of interpersonal violence.

    PubMed

    Mills, Jeremy F

    2005-02-01

    This article underscores the weakness of clinical judgment as a mechanism for prediction with examples from other areas in the psychological literature. Clinical judgment has as its Achilles'heel the reliance on a person to incorporate multiple pieces of information while overcoming human judgment errors--a feat insurmountable thus far. The actuarial approach to risk assessment has overcome many of the weaknesses of clinical judgment and has been shown to be a much superior method. Nonetheless, the static/historical nature of the risk factors associated with most actuarial approaches is limiting. Advances in risk prediction will be found in part in the development of dynamic actuarial instruments that will measure both static/historical and changeable risk factors. The dynamic risk factors can be reevaluated on an ongoing basis, and it is proposed that the level of change in dynamic factors necessary to represent a significant change in overall risk will be an interactive function with static risk factors.

  15. The prediction of transonic loading on advancing helicopter rotors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strawn, R. C.; Tung, C.

    1986-01-01

    Two different schemes are presented for including the effect of rotor wakes on the finie-difference prediction of rotor loads. The first formulation includes wake effects by means of a blade-surface inflow specification. This approach is sufficiently simple to permit coupling of a full-potential finite-difference rotor code to a comprehensive integral model for the rotor wake and blade motion. The coupling involves a transfer of appropriate loads and inflow data between the two computer codes. Results are compared with experimental data for two advancing rotor cases. The second rotor-wake modeling scheme is a split potential formulation for computing unsteady blade-vortex interactions. Discrete vortex fields are introduced into a three-dimensional, conservative, full-potential rotor code. Computer predictions are compared with two experimental blade-vortex interaction cases.

  16. The prediction of transonic loading advancing helicopter rotors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strawn, R.; Tung, C.

    1986-01-01

    Two different schemes are presented for including the effect of rotor wakes on the finite-difference prediction of rotor loads. The first formulation includes wake effects by means of a blade-surface inflow specification. This approach is sufficiently simple to permit coupling of a full-potential finite-difference rotor code to a comprehensive integral model for the rotor wake and blade motion. The coupling involves a transfer of appropriate loads and inflow data between the two computer codes. Results are compared with experimental data for two advancing rotor cases. The second rotor wake modeling scheme in this paper is a split potential formulation for computing unsteady blade-vortex interactions. Discrete vortex fields are introduced into a three-dimensional, conservative, full-potential rotor code. Computer predictions are compared with two experimental blade-vortex interaction cases.

  17. Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Post-Flight Navigation Performance Assessment Relative to the Best Estimated Trajectory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gay, Robert S.; Holt, Greg N.; Zanetti, Renato

    2016-01-01

    This paper details the post-flight navigation performance assessment of the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1). Results of each flight phase are presented: Ground Align, Ascent, Orbit, and Entry Descent and Landing. This study examines the on-board Kalman Filter uncertainty along with state deviations relative to the Best Estimated Trajectory (BET). Overall the results show that the Orion Navigation System performed as well or better than expected. Specifically, the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurement availability was significantly better than anticipated at high altitudes. In addition, attitude estimation via processing GPS measurements along with Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data performed very well and maintained good attitude throughout the mission.

  18. ASRM radiation and flowfield prediction status. [Advanced Solid Rocket Motor plume radiation prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reardon, J. E.; Everson, J.; Smith, S. D.; Sulyma, P. R.

    1991-01-01

    Existing and proposed methods for the prediction of plume radiation are discussed in terms of their application to the NASA Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM) and Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) projects. Extrapolations of the Solid Rocket Motor (SRM) are discussed with respect to preliminary predictions of the primary and secondary radiation environments. The methodology for radiation and initial plume property predictions are set forth, including a new code for scattering media and independent secondary source models based on flight data. The Monte Carlo code employs a reverse-evaluation approach which traces rays back to their point of absorption in the plume. The SRM sea-level plume model is modified to account for the increased radiation in the ASRM plume due to the ASRM's propellant chemistry. The ASRM cycle-1 environment predictions are shown to identify a potential reason for the shutdown spike identified with pre-SRM staging.

  19. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents recent thermal model results of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG). The three-dimensional (3D) ASRG thermal power model was built using the Thermal Desktop(trademark) thermal analyzer. The model was correlated with ASRG engineering unit test data and ASRG flight unit predictions from Lockheed Martin's (LM's) I-deas(trademark) TMG thermal model. The auxiliary cooling system (ACS) of the ASRG is also included in the ASRG thermal model. The ACS is designed to remove waste heat from the ASRG so that it can be used to heat spacecraft components. The performance of the ACS is reported under nominal conditions and during a Venus flyby scenario. The results for the nominal case are validated with data from Lockheed Martin. Transient thermal analysis results of ASRG for a Venus flyby with a representative trajectory are also presented. In addition, model results of an ASRG mounted on a Cassini-like spacecraft with a sunshade are presented to show a way to mitigate the high temperatures of a Venus flyby. It was predicted that the sunshade can lower the temperature of the ASRG alternator by 20 C for the representative Venus flyby trajectory. The 3D model also was modified to predict generator performance after a single Advanced Stirling Convertor failure. The geometry of the Microtherm HT insulation block on the outboard side was modified to match deformation and shrinkage observed during testing of a prototypic ASRG test fixture by LM. Test conditions and test data were used to correlate the model by adjusting the thermal conductivity of the deformed insulation to match the post-heat-dump steady state temperatures. Results for these conditions showed that the performance of the still-functioning inboard ACS was unaffected.

  20. Best estimate method versus evaluation method: a comparison of two techniques in evaluating seismic analysis and design. Technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Bumpus, S.E.; Johnson, J.J.; Smith, P.D.

    1980-07-01

    The concept of how two techniques, Best Estimate Method and Evaluation Method, may be applied to the tradditional seismic analysis and design of a nuclear power plant is introduced. Only the four links of the seismic analysis and design methodology chain (SMC)--seismic input, soil-structure interaction, major structural response, and subsystem response--are considered. The objective is to evaluate the compounding of conservatisms in the seismic analysis and design of nuclear power plants, to provide guidance for judgments in the SMC, and to concentrate the evaluation on that part of the seismic analysis and design which is familiar to the engineering community. An example applies the effects of three-dimensional excitations on the model of a nuclear power plant structure. The example demonstrates how conservatisms accrue by coupling two links in the SMC and comparing those results to the effects of one link alone. The utility of employing the Best Estimate Method vs the Evauation Method is also demonstrated.

  1. Prediction of Corrosion of Advanced Materials and Fabricated Components

    SciTech Connect

    A. Anderko; G. Engelhardt; M.M. Lencka; M.A. Jakab; G. Tormoen; N. Sridhar

    2007-09-29

    The goal of this project is to provide materials engineers, chemical engineers and plant operators with a software tool that will enable them to predict localized corrosion of process equipment including fabricated components as well as base alloys. For design and revamp purposes, the software predicts the occurrence of localized corrosion as a function of environment chemistry and assists the user in selecting the optimum alloy for a given environment. For the operation of existing plants, the software enables the users to predict the remaining life of equipment and help in scheduling maintenance activities. This project combined fundamental understanding of mechanisms of corrosion with focused experimental results to predict the corrosion of advanced, base or fabricated, alloys in real-world environments encountered in the chemical industry. At the heart of this approach is the development of models that predict the fundamental parameters that control the occurrence of localized corrosion as a function of environmental conditions and alloy composition. The fundamental parameters that dictate the occurrence of localized corrosion are the corrosion and repassivation potentials. The program team, OLI Systems and Southwest Research Institute, has developed theoretical models for these parameters. These theoretical models have been applied to predict the occurrence of localized corrosion of base materials and heat-treated components in a variety of environments containing aggressive and non-aggressive species. As a result of this project, a comprehensive model has been established and extensively verified for predicting the occurrence of localized corrosion as a function of environment chemistry and temperature by calculating the corrosion and repassivation potentials.To support and calibrate the model, an experimental database has been developed to elucidate (1) the effects of various inhibiting species as well as aggressive species on localized corrosion of nickel

  2. Advances in Data Assimilation and Weather Prediction Using TRMM Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor); Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara; daSilvia, Arlindo; Li, Jui-Lin; Zhang, Minghua

    2002-01-01

    Understanding the Earth's climate and how it responds to climate perturbations requires knowledge of how atmospheric moisture, clouds, latent heating, the large-scale circulation and energy fluxes vary with changing climatic conditions. The physical process linking these climate elements is precipitation. Accurate knowledge of how precipitation varies in space and time and how it couples with other atmospheric variables is essential for understanding the global water and energy cycle. In recent years, TRMM data products have played a key role in advancing the field of data assimilation to provide better global analyses for climate research and numerical weather prediction. TRMM research has demonstrated the effectiveness of microwave-based rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations in improving the quality of assimilated datasets and upgrading forecast skills. TRMM latent heating products have also stimulated experimentation with innovative techniques to use this type of information to improve global analyses. We discuss strategies of assimilating TRMM observations at NASA s Data Assimilation Office and present results on the impact assimilating TRMM data on the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) analyses and forecast capabilities.

  3. Cancer Pharmacogenomics: Integrating Discoveries in Basic, Clinical and Population Sciences to Advance Predictive Cancer Care

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer Pharmacogenomics: Integrating Discoveries in Basic, Clinical and Population Sciences to Advance Predictive Cancer Care, a 2010 workshop sponsored by the Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program.

  4. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 1, Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Cuccio, J.C.; Brehm, P.; Fang, H.T.

    1995-03-01

    Emphasis of this program is to develop and demonstrate ceramics life prediction methods, including fast fracture, stress rupture, creep, oxidation, and nondestructive evaluation. Significant advancements were made in these methods and their predictive capabilities successfully demonstrated.

  5. A Best-Estimate Approach for Determining Self-potential Parameters Related to Simple Geometric Shaped Structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tlas, M.; Asfahani, J.

    2007-12-01

    A new approach is proposed in order to interpret field self-potential ( SP) anomalies related to simple geometric-shaped models such as sphere, horizontal cylinder, and vertical cylinder. This approach is mainly based on solving a set of algebraic linear equations, and directed towards the best estimate of the three model parameters, e.g., electric dipole moment, depth, and polarization angle. Its utility and validity are demonstrated through studying and analyzing synthetic self-potential anomalies obtained by using simulated data generated from a known model and a statistical distribution with different random errors components. Being theoretically tested and proven, this approach has been consequently applied on two real field self-potential anomalies taken from Colorado and Turkey. A comparable and acceptable agreement is obtained between the results derived by the new proposed method and those deduced by other interpretation methods. Moreover, the depth obtained by such an approach is found to be very close to that obtained by drilling information.

  6. Perspectives on the Application of Order-Statistics in Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty Nuclear Safety Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Robert P. Martin; William T. Nutt

    2011-01-01

    The application of order-statistics in best-estimate plus uncertainty nuclear safety analysis has received a considerable amount of attention from methodology practitioners, regulators, and academia. At the root of the debate are two questions: (1) what is an appropriate quantitative interpretation of “high level of probability” in regulatory language appearing in the LOCA rule, 10 CFR 50.46 and (2) how best to mathematically characterize the multi-variate case. An original derivation is offered to provide a quantitative basis for “high level of probability.” At root of the second question is whether one should recognize a probability statement based on the tolerance region method of Wald and Guba, et al., for multi-variate problems, one explicitly based on the regulatory limits, best articulated in the Wallis–Nutt “Testing Method”, or something else entirely. This paper reviews the origins of the different positions, key assumptions, limitations, and relationship to addressing acceptance criteria. It presents a mathematical interpretation of the regulatory language, including a complete derivation of uni-variate order-statistics (as credited in AREVA’s Realistic Large Break LOCA methodology) and extension to multi-variate situations. Lastly, it provides recommendations for LOCA applications, endorsing the “Testing Method” and addressing acceptance methods allowing for limited sample failures.

  7. 76 FR 52954 - Workshop: Advancing Research on Mixtures; New Perspectives and Approaches for Predicting Adverse...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-24

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Workshop: Advancing Research on Mixtures; New Perspectives and Approaches for Predicting... ``Advancing Research on Mixtures: New Perspectives and Approaches for Predicting Adverse Human Health Effects....niehs.nih.gov/conferences/dert/mixtures/ . The deadline to register for this workshop is...

  8. Lifetime prediction modeling of airfoils for advanced power generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karaivanov, Ventzislav Gueorguiev

    The use of gases produced from coal as a turbine fuel offers an attractive means for efficiently generating electric power from our Nation's most abundant fossil fuel resource. The oxy-fuel and hydrogen-fired turbine concepts promise increased efficiency and low emissions on the expense of increased turbine inlet temperature (TIT) and different working fluid. Developing the turbine technology and materials is critical to the creation of these near-zero emission power generation technologies. A computational methodology, based on three-dimensional finite element analysis (FEA) and damage mechanics is presented for predicting the evolution of creep and fatigue in airfoils. We took a first look at airfoil thermal distributions in these advanced turbine systems based on CFD analysis. The damage mechanics-based creep and fatigue models were implemented as user modified routine in commercial package ANSYS. This routine was used to visualize the creep and fatigue damage evolution over airfoils for hydrogen-fired and oxy-fuel turbines concepts, and regions most susceptible to failure were indentified. Model allows for interaction between creep and fatigue damage thus damage due to fatigue and creep processes acting separately in one cycle will affect both the fatigue and creep damage rates in the next cycle. Simulation results were presented for various thermal conductivity of the top coat. Surface maps were created on the airfoil showing the development of the TGO scale and the Al depletion of the bond coat. In conjunction with model development, laboratory-scale experimental validation was executed to evaluate the influence of operational compressive stress levels on the performance of the TBC system. TBC coated single crystal coupons were exposed isothermally in air at 900, 1000, 1100oC with and without compressive load. Exposed samples were cross-sectioned and evaluated with scanning electron microscope (SEM). Performance data was collected based on image analysis

  9. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This presentation describes the capabilities of three-dimensional thermal power model of advanced stirling radioisotope generator (ASRG). The performance of the ASRG is presented for different scenario, such as Venus flyby with or without the auxiliary cooling system.

  10. Advanced System-Level Reliability Analysis and Prediction with Field Data Integration

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-01

    innovative life prediction methodologies that incorporate emerging probabilistic lifing techniques as well as advanced physics-of- failure...often based on simplifying assumptions and their predictions may suffer from different sources of uncertainty. For instance, one source of...system level, most modeling approaches focus on life prediction for single components and fail to account for the interdependencies that may result

  11. Predicting Performance in Technical Preclinical Dental Courses Using Advanced Simulation.

    PubMed

    Gottlieb, Riki; Baechle, Mary A; Janus, Charles; Lanning, Sharon K

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether advanced simulation parameters, such as simulation exam scores, number of student self-evaluations, time to complete the simulation, and time to complete self-evaluations, served as predictors of dental students' preclinical performance. Students from three consecutive classes (n=282) at one U.S. dental school completed advanced simulation training and exams within the first four months of their dental curriculum. The students then completed conventional preclinical instruction and exams in operative dentistry (OD) and fixed prosthodontics (FP) courses, taken during the first and second years of dental school, respectively. Two advanced simulation exam scores (ASES1 and ASES2) were tested as predictors of performance in the two preclinical courses based on final course grades. ASES1 and ASES2 were found to be predictors of OD and FP preclinical course grades. Other advanced simulation parameters were not significantly related to grades in the preclinical courses. These results highlight the value of an early psychomotor skills assessment in dentistry. Advanced simulation scores may allow early intervention in students' learning process and assist in efficient allocation of resources such as faculty coverage and tutor assignment.

  12. Advances and Computational Tools towards Predictable Design in Biological Engineering

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The design process of complex systems in all the fields of engineering requires a set of quantitatively characterized components and a method to predict the output of systems composed by such elements. This strategy relies on the modularity of the used components or the prediction of their context-dependent behaviour, when parts functioning depends on the specific context. Mathematical models usually support the whole process by guiding the selection of parts and by predicting the output of interconnected systems. Such bottom-up design process cannot be trivially adopted for biological systems engineering, since parts function is hard to predict when components are reused in different contexts. This issue and the intrinsic complexity of living systems limit the capability of synthetic biologists to predict the quantitative behaviour of biological systems. The high potential of synthetic biology strongly depends on the capability of mastering this issue. This review discusses the predictability issues of basic biological parts (promoters, ribosome binding sites, coding sequences, transcriptional terminators, and plasmids) when used to engineer simple and complex gene expression systems in Escherichia coli. A comparison between bottom-up and trial-and-error approaches is performed for all the discussed elements and mathematical models supporting the prediction of parts behaviour are illustrated. PMID:25161694

  13. Advanced GIS Exercise: Predicting Rainfall Erosivity Index Using Regression Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Post, Christopher J.; Goddard, Megan A.; Mikhailova, Elena A.; Hall, Steven T.

    2006-01-01

    Graduate students from a variety of agricultural and natural resource fields are incorporating geographic information systems (GIS) analysis into their graduate research, creating a need for teaching methodologies that help students understand advanced GIS topics for use in their own research. Graduate-level GIS exercises help students understand…

  14. Factors that Predict Who Takes Advanced Courses in Cognitive Therapy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pehlivanidis, Artemios

    2007-01-01

    Training in Cognitive Therapy (CT) includes theoretical and didactic components combined with clinical supervision. An introductory course in CT might satisfy training needs in psychotherapy and help in the selection of those trainees who wish to continue to an advanced training level. Predictors of success at such an introductory course have been…

  15. Perceptions and Predictions of Expertise in Advanced Musical Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Papageorgi, Ioulia; Creech, Andrea; Haddon, Elizabeth; Morton, Frances; De Bezenac, Christophe; Himonides, Evangelos; Potter, John; Duffy, Celia; Whyton, Tony; Welch, Graham

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this article was to compare musicians' views on (a) the importance of musical skills and (b) the nature of expertise. Data were obtained from a specially devised web-based questionnaire completed by advanced musicians representing four musical genres (classical, popular, jazz, Scottish traditional) and varying degrees of professional…

  16. firestar--advances in the prediction of functionally important residues.

    PubMed

    Lopez, Gonzalo; Maietta, Paolo; Rodriguez, Jose Manuel; Valencia, Alfonso; Tress, Michael L

    2011-07-01

    firestar is a server for predicting catalytic and ligand-binding residues in protein sequences. Here, we present the important developments since the first release of firestar. Previous versions of the server required human interpretation of the results; the server is now fully automatized. firestar has been implemented as a web service and can now be run in high-throughput mode. Prediction coverage has been greatly improved with the extension of the FireDB database and the addition of alignments generated by HHsearch. Ligands in FireDB are now classified for biological relevance. Many of the changes have been motivated by the critical assessment of techniques for protein structure prediction (CASP) ligand-binding prediction experiment, which provided us with a framework to test the performance of firestar. URL: http://firedb.bioinfo.cnio.es/Php/FireStar.php.

  17. Advancements in decadal climate predictability: The role of nonoceanic drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellucci, A.; Haarsma, R.; Bellouin, N.; Booth, B.; Cagnazzo, C.; Hurk, B.; Keenlyside, N.; Koenigk, T.; Massonnet, F.; Materia, S.; Weiss, M.

    2015-06-01

    We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as "signal carriers," transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

  18. Advances in fatigue life prediction methodology for metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, J. C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model to predict small- and large-crack growth rates, and in some cases total fatigue life, for four aluminum alloys and three titanium alloys under constant-amplitude, variable-amplitude, and spectrum loading are described. Equations to calculate a cyclic-plastic-zone corrected effective stress-intensity factor range from a cyclic J-integral and crack-closure analysis of large cracks were reviewed. The effective stress-intensity factor range against crack growth rate relations were used in the closure model to predict small- and large-crack growth under variable-amplitude and spectrum loading. Using the closure model and microstructural features, a total fatigue life prediction method is demonstrated for three aluminum alloys under various load histories.

  19. RNA Structure: Advances and Assessment of 3D Structure Prediction.

    PubMed

    Miao, Zhichao; Westhof, Eric

    2017-03-30

    Biological functions of RNA molecules are dependent upon sustained specific three-dimensional (3D) structures of RNA, with or without the help of proteins. Understanding of RNA structure is frequently based on 2D structures, which describe only the Watson-Crick (WC) base pairs. Here, we hierarchically review the structural elements of RNA and how they contribute to RNA 3D structure. We focus our analysis on the non-WC base pairs and on RNA modules. Several computer programs have now been designed to predict RNA modules. We describe the RNA-Puzzles initiative, which is a community-wide, blind assessment of RNA 3D structure prediction programs to determine the capabilities and bottlenecks of current predictions. The assessment metrics used in RNA-Puzzles are briefly described. The detection of RNA 3D modules from sequence data and their automatic implementation belong to the current challenges in RNA 3D structure prediction. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Biophysics Volume 46 is May 20, 2017. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

  20. Broadband noise - Its prediction and likely importance for advanced propfans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knowles, K.

    1986-07-01

    A comparison of published experimental results and analytical results on broadband noise evaluations for rotating many-bladed propellers has been conducted to assess the importance of broadband noise in the perceived noise (PN) level of propfans. It is concluded that, in cruise conditions, the tone noise dominates the broadband noise of typical propfans by 8 dB. As the speed is reduced, and the values of forward Mach number and helical tip Mach number are reduced, the tones fall more rapidly than the broadband component until, at approach conditions, the broadband noise is dominant by 8 to 16 PNdB. A survey of the state-of-the-art of broadband noise prediction suggests that the broadband noise can be predicted to within 5 dB.

  1. Early Prediction of Lupus Nephritis Using Advanced Proteomics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-06-01

    nephritis from non inflammatory nephropathies with similar urinary findings. 1.2: Validation of NGAL as a biomarker for predicting SLE disease...R01-DK-069749, R01-DK-53289, P50-DK-52612, and R21-DK-070163 from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases) and by the...significant, and P values less than 0.1 were reported to show trends. RESULTS Baseline patient characteristics and treatments . Table 1 summarizes the

  2. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    SciTech Connect

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A.

    1995-10-01

    Most of the studies on the low cycle fatigue life prediction have been reported under isothermal conditions where the deformation of the material is strain dependent. In the development of gas turbines, components such as blades and vanes are exposed to temperature variations in addition to strain cycling. As a result, the deformation process becomes temperature and strain dependent. Therefore, the life of the component becomes sensitive to temperature-strain cycling which produces a process known as {open_quotes}thermomechanical fatigue, or TMF{close_quotes}. The TMF fatigue failure phenomenon has been modeled using conventional fatigue life prediction methods, which are not sufficiently accurate to quantitatively establish an allowable design procedure. To add to the complexity of TMF life prediction, blade and vane substrates are normally coated with aluminide, overlay or thermal barrier type coatings (TBC) where the durability of the component is dominated by the coating/substrate constitutive response and by the fatigue behavior of the coating. A number of issues arise from TMF depending on the type of temperature/strain phase cycle: (1) time-dependent inelastic behavior can significantly affect the stress response. For example, creep relaxation during a tensile or compressive loading at elevated temperatures leads to a progressive increase in the mean stress level under cyclic loading. (2) the mismatch in elastic and thermal expansion properties between the coating and the substrate can lead to significant deviations in the coating stress levels due to changes in the elastic modulii. (3) the {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} corrosion resistance coatings applied to the substrate may act as primary crack initiation sites. Crack initiation in the coating is a function of the coating composition, its mechanical properties, creep relaxation behavior, thermal strain range and the strain/temperature phase relationship.

  3. Early Prediction of Lupus Nephritis Using Advanced Proteomics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-06-01

    non inflammatory nephropathies with similar urinary findings. 1.2: Validation of NGAL as a biomarker for predicting SLE disease activity and course...Devarajan’s work was supported by the NIH (grants R01-DK-069749, R01-DK-53289, P50-DK-52612, and R21-DK-070163 from the National Institute of Diabetes and... treatments . Table 1 summarizes the characteristics of the 111 pa- tients included in the study. Their mean SD age was 15.9 3.4 years, and the

  4. Toward improved durability in advanced combustors and turbines: Progress in the prediction of thermomechanical loads

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sokolowski, Daniel E.; Ensign, C. Robert

    1986-01-01

    NASA is sponsoring the Turbine Engine Hot Section Technology (HOST) Project to address the need for improved durability in advanced combustors and turbines. Analytical and experimental activities aimed at more accurate prediction of the aerothermal environment, the thermomechanical loads, the material behavior and structural responses to such loading, and life predictions for high temperature cyclic operation have been underway for several years and are showing promising results. Progress is reported in the development of advanced instrumentation and in the improvement of combustor aerothermal and turbine heat transfer models that will lead to more accurate prediction of thermomechanical loads.

  5. Predicting the relativistic periastron advance of a binary without curving spacetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedman, Y.; Livshitz, S.; Steiner, J. M.

    2017-01-01

    Relativistic Newtonian dynamics, the simple model used previously for predicting accurately the anomalous precession of Mercury, is now applied to predict the periastron advance of a binary. The classical treatment of a binary as a two-body problem is modified to account for the influence of the gravitational potential on spacetime. Without curving spacetime, the model predicts the identical equation for the relativistic periastron advance as the post-Newtonian approximation of the general relativity formalism thereby providing further substantiation of this model.

  6. The accuracy of clinicians' predictions of survival in advanced cancer: a review.

    PubMed

    Cheon, Stephanie; Agarwal, Arnav; Popovic, Marko; Milakovic, Milica; Lam, Michael; Fu, Wayne; DiGiovanni, Julia; Lam, Henry; Lechner, Breanne; Pulenzas, Natalie; Chow, Ronald; Chow, Edward

    2016-01-01

    The process of formulating an accurate survival prediction is often difficult but important, as it influences the decisions of clinicians, patients, and their families. The current article aims to review the accuracy of clinicians' predictions of survival (CPS) in advanced cancer patients. A literature search of Cochrane CENTRAL, EMBASE, and MEDLINE was conducted to identify studies that reported clinicians' prediction of survival in advanced cancer patients. Studies were included if the subjects consisted of advanced cancer patients and the data reported on the ability of clinicians to predict survival, with both estimated and observed survival data present. Studies reporting on the ability of biological and molecular markers to predict survival were excluded. Fifteen studies that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were identified. Clinicians in five studies underestimated patients' survival (estimated to observed survival ratio between 0.5 and 0.92). In contrast, 12 studies reported clinicians' overestimation of survival (ratio between 1.06 and 6). CPS in advanced cancer patients is often inaccurate and overestimated. Given these findings, clinicians should be aware of their tendency to be overoptimistic. Further investigation of predictive patient and clinician characteristics is warranted to improve clinicians' ability to predict survival.

  7. Modelling Aerodynamically Generated Sound: Recent Advances in Rotor Noise Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brentner, Kenneth S.

    2000-01-01

    A great deal of progress has been made in the modeling of aerodynamically generated sound for rotors over the past decade. The Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H ) equation has been the foundation for much of the development. Both subsonic and supersonic quadrupole noise formulations have been developed for the prediction of high-speed impulsive noise. In an effort to eliminate the need to compute the quadrupole contribution, the FW-H has also been utilized on permeable surfaces surrounding all physical noise sources. Comparison of the Kirchhoff formulation for moving surfaces with the FW-H equation have shown that the Kirchhoff formulation for moving surfaces can give erroneous results for aeroacoustic problems.

  8. Recent advances using rodent models for predicting human allergenicity

    SciTech Connect

    Knippels, Leon M.J. . E-mail: Knippels@voeding.tno.nl; Penninks, Andre H.

    2005-09-01

    The potential allergenicity of newly introduced proteins in genetically engineered foods has become an important safety evaluation issue. However, to evaluate the potential allergenicity and the potency of new proteins in our food, there are still no widely accepted and reliable test systems. The best-known allergy assessment proposal for foods derived from genetically engineered plants was the careful stepwise process presented in the so-called ILSI/IFBC decision tree. A revision of this decision tree strategy was proposed by a FAO/WHO expert consultation. As prediction of the sensitizing potential of the novel introduced protein based on animal testing was considered to be very important, animal models were introduced as one of the new test items, despite the fact that non of the currently studied models has been widely accepted and validated yet. In this paper, recent results are summarized of promising models developed in rat and mouse.

  9. Investigation of advanced UQ for CRUD prediction with VIPRE.

    SciTech Connect

    Eldred, Michael Scott

    2011-09-01

    This document summarizes the results from a level 3 milestone study within the CASL VUQ effort. It demonstrates the application of 'advanced UQ,' in particular dimension-adaptive p-refinement for polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation. The study calculates statistics for several quantities of interest that are indicators for the formation of CRUD (Chalk River unidentified deposit), which can lead to CIPS (CRUD induced power shift). Stochastic expansion methods are attractive methods for uncertainty quantification due to their fast convergence properties. For smooth functions (i.e., analytic, infinitely-differentiable) in L{sup 2} (i.e., possessing finite variance), exponential convergence rates can be obtained under order refinement for integrated statistical quantities of interest such as mean, variance, and probability. Two stochastic expansion methods are of interest: nonintrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), which computes coefficients for a known basis of multivariate orthogonal polynomials, and stochastic collocation (SC), which forms multivariate interpolation polynomials for known coefficients. Within the DAKOTA project, recent research in stochastic expansion methods has focused on automated polynomial order refinement ('p-refinement') of expansions to support scalability to higher dimensional random input spaces [4, 3]. By preferentially refining only in the most important dimensions of the input space, the applicability of these methods can be extended from O(10{sup 0})-O(10{sup 1}) random variables to O(10{sup 2}) and beyond, depending on the degree of anisotropy (i.e., the extent to which randominput variables have differing degrees of influence on the statistical quantities of interest (QOIs)). Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the application of these adaptive stochastic expansion methods to the analysis of CRUD using the VIPRE simulation tools for two different plant models of differing random dimension, anisotropy, and

  10. Advancing alternatives analysis: The role of predictive toxicology in selecting safer chemical products and processes.

    PubMed

    Malloy, Timothy; Zaunbrecher, Virginia; Beryt, Elizabeth; Judson, Richard; Tice, Raymond; Allard, Patrick; Blake, Ann; Cote, Ila; Godwin, Hilary; Heine, Lauren; Kerzic, Patrick; Kostal, Jakub; Marchant, Gary; McPartland, Jennifer; Moran, Kelly; Nel, Andre; Oguseitan, Oladele; Rossi, Mark; Thayer, Kristina; Tickner, Joel; Whittaker, Margaret; Zarker, Ken

    2017-03-01

    Alternatives analysis (AA) is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, assess, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. It requires toxicological data for the existing chemical and potential alternatives. Predictive toxicology uses in silico and in vitro approaches, computational models, and other tools to expedite toxicological data generation in more cost-effective manner than traditional approaches. This article briefly reviews the challenges associated with using predictive toxicology in regulatory AA, then presents four recommendations for its advancement. It recommends using case studies to advance the integration of predictive toxicology into AA; adopting a stepwise process to employing predicative toxicology in AA beginning with prioritization of chemicals of concern; leveraging existing resources to advance the integration of predictive toxicology into the practice of AA, and supporting trans-disciplinary efforts. The further incorporation of predictive toxicology into AA would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients, and potentially increase the use of predictive toxicology in regulation more broadly. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  11. Urinary π-glutathione S-transferase Predicts Advanced Acute Kidney Injury Following Cardiovascular Surgery.

    PubMed

    Shu, Kai-Hsiang; Wang, Chih-Hsien; Wu, Che-Hsiung; Huang, Tao-Min; Wu, Pei-Chen; Lai, Chien-Heng; Tseng, Li-Jung; Tsai, Pi-Ru; Connolly, Rory; Wu, Vin-Cent

    2016-08-16

    Urinary biomarkers augment the diagnosis of acute kidney injury (AKI), with AKI after cardiovascular surgeries being a prototype of prognosis scenario. Glutathione S-transferases (GST) were evaluated as biomarkers of AKI. Urine samples were collected in 141 cardiovascular surgical patients and analyzed for urinary alpha-(α-) and pi-(π-) GSTs. The outcomes of advanced AKI (KDIGO stage 2, 3) and all-cause in-patient mortality, as composite outcome, were recorded. Areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and multivariate generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to predict outcomes. Thirty-eight (26.9%) patients had AKI, while 12 (8.5%) were with advanced AKI. Urinary π-GST differentiated patients with/without advanced AKI or composite outcome after surgery (p < 0.05 by generalized estimating equation). Urinary π-GST predicted advanced AKI at 3 hrs post-surgery (p = 0.033) and composite outcome (p = 0.009), while the corresponding ROC curve had AUC of 0.784 and 0.783. Using GAM, the cutoff value of 14.7 μg/L for π-GST showed the best performance to predict composite outcome. The addition of π-GST to the SOFA score improved risk stratification (total net reclassification index = 0.47). Thus, urinary π-GST levels predict advanced AKI or hospital mortality after cardiovascular surgery and improve in SOFA outcome assessment specific to AKI.

  12. Application of infinite model predictive control methodology to other advanced controllers.

    PubMed

    Abu-Ayyad, M; Dubay, R; Hernandez, J M

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an application of most recent developed predictive control algorithm an infinite model predictive control (IMPC) to other advanced control schemes. The IMPC strategy was derived for systems with different degrees of nonlinearity on the process gain and time constant. Also, it was shown that IMPC structure uses nonlinear open-loop modeling which is conducted while closed-loop control is executed every sampling instant. The main objective of this work is to demonstrate that the methodology of IMPC can be applied to other advanced control strategies making the methodology generic. The IMPC strategy was implemented on several advanced controllers such as PI controller using Smith-Predictor, Dahlin controller, simplified predictive control (SPC), dynamic matrix control (DMC), and shifted dynamic matrix (m-DMC). Experimental work using these approaches combined with IMPC was conducted on both single-input-single-output (SISO) and multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) systems and compared with the original forms of these advanced controllers. Computer simulations were performed on nonlinear plants demonstrating that the IMPC strategy can be readily implemented on other advanced control schemes providing improved control performance. Practical work included real-time control applications on a DC motor, plastic injection molding machine and a MIMO three zone thermal system.

  13. Data Mining and Predictive Modeling in Institutional Advancement: How Ten Schools Found Success. Technical Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luperchio, Dan

    2009-01-01

    This technical report, produced in partnership by the Council for Advancement and Support of Education (CASE) and SPSS Inc., explores the promise of data mining alumni records at educational institutions. Working with individual alumni records from The Johns Hopkins Zanvyl Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, a predictive regression model is…

  14. Genomic Prediction of Seed Quality Traits Using Advanced Barley Breeding Lines

    PubMed Central

    Nielsen, Nanna Hellum; Jahoor, Ahmed; Jensen, Jens Due; Orabi, Jihad; Cericola, Fabio; Edriss, Vahid; Jensen, Just

    2016-01-01

    Genomic selection was recently introduced in plant breeding. The objective of this study was to develop genomic prediction for important seed quality parameters in spring barley. The aim was to predict breeding values without expensive phenotyping of large sets of lines. A total number of 309 advanced spring barley lines tested at two locations each with three replicates were phenotyped and each line was genotyped by Illumina iSelect 9Kbarley chip. The population originated from two different breeding sets, which were phenotyped in two different years. Phenotypic measurements considered were: seed size, protein content, protein yield, test weight and ergosterol content. A leave-one-out cross-validation strategy revealed high prediction accuracies ranging between 0.40 and 0.83. Prediction across breeding sets resulted in reduced accuracies compared to the leave-one-out strategy. Furthermore, predicting across full and half-sib-families resulted in reduced prediction accuracies. Additionally, predictions were performed using reduced marker sets and reduced training population sets. In conclusion, using less than 200 lines in the training set can result in low prediction accuracy, and the accuracy will then be highly dependent on the family structure of the selected training set. However, the results also indicate that relatively small training sets (200 lines) are sufficient for genomic prediction in commercial barley breeding. In addition, our results indicate a minimum marker set of 1,000 to decrease the risk of low prediction accuracy for some traits or some families. PMID:27783639

  15. Intermediate-term prediction in advance of the Loma Prieta earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Keilis-Borok, V.I.; Kossobokov, V.; Rotvain, I. ); Knopoff, L. )

    1990-08-01

    The Loma Prieta earthquake of October 17, 1989 was predicted by the use of two pattern recognition algorithms, CN and M8. The prediction with algorithm CN was that an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 6.4 was expected to occur in a roughly four year interval staring in midsummer 1986 in a polygonal spatial window of approximate average dimensions 600 {times} 450 km, encompassing Northern California and Northern Nevada. The prediction with algorithm M8 was that an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 7.0 was expected to occur within 5 to 7 years after 1985, in a spatial window of approximate average dimensions 800 {times} 560 km. The predictions were communicated in advance of the earthquake. In previous, mainly retrospective applications of these algorithms, successful predictions occurred in about 80% of the cases.

  16. Formability Prediction of Advanced High Strength Steel with a New Ductile Fracture Criterion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lou, Yanshan; Lim, Sungjun; Huh, Jeehyang; Huh, Hoon

    2011-08-01

    A ductile fracture criterion is newly proposed to accurately predict forming limit diagrams (FLD) of sheet metals. The new ductile fracture criterion is based on the effect of the non-dimensional stress triaxiality, the stress concentration factor and the effective plastic strain on the nucleation, growth and coalescence of voids. The new ductile fracture criterion has been applied to estimate the formability of four kind advanced high strength steels (AHSS): DP780, DP980, TRIP590, and TWIP980. FLDs predicted are compared with experimental results and those predicted by other ductile fracture criteria. The comparison demonstrates that FLDs predicted by the new ductile fracture criterion are in better agreement with experimental FLDs than those predicted by other ductile fracture criteria. The better agreement of FLDs predicted by the new ductile fracture criterion is because conventional ductile fracture criteria were proposed for fracture prediction in bulk metal forming while the new one is proposed to predict the onset of fracture in sheet metal forming processes.

  17. Development of advanced structural analysis methodologies for predicting widespread fatigue damage in aircraft structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Charles E.; Starnes, James H., Jr.; Newman, James C., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    NASA is developing a 'tool box' that includes a number of advanced structural analysis computer codes which, taken together, represent the comprehensive fracture mechanics capability required to predict the onset of widespread fatigue damage. These structural analysis tools have complementary and specialized capabilities ranging from a finite-element-based stress-analysis code for two- and three-dimensional built-up structures with cracks to a fatigue and fracture analysis code that uses stress-intensity factors and material-property data found in 'look-up' tables or from equations. NASA is conducting critical experiments necessary to verify the predictive capabilities of the codes, and these tests represent a first step in the technology-validation and industry-acceptance processes. NASA has established cooperative programs with aircraft manufacturers to facilitate the comprehensive transfer of this technology by making these advanced structural analysis codes available to industry.

  18. Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972-2002: Best estimates, uncertainties and research needs.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Jane; Shearman, Phil; Ash, Julian; Kirkpatrick, J B

    2010-01-01

    Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented, accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest, we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks, and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (+/-13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt (+/-18%). By applying a long-term forest change model, we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (+/-18%), rising from 24 Mt (+/-15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging, rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest, and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies.

  19. REFIR - The operational FutureVolc multi-parameter system providing a best estimate of mass eruption rate during ongoing eruptions in near real-time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dürig, Tobias

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic ash injected into the atmosphere poses a serious threat for aviation. Forecasting the concentration of ash promptly requires detailed knowledge of eruption source parameters. However, monitoring an ongoing eruption and quantifying the mass flux in real-time is a considerable challenge. Due to the large uncertainties affecting present-day models, best estimates are often obtained by the application of integrated approaches. One example for this strategy is represented by the EU supersite project "FutureVolc" which aims to monitor eruptions of volcanoes in Iceland. A quasi-autonomous multi-parameter system, denoted "REFIR", has been developed. REFIR makes use of streaming data provided by a multitude of sensors, e.g. by C- and X-band radars, web-cam based plume height tracking systems, imaging ultra-violet and infrared cameras and electric field sensors. These observations are used with plume models that also consider the current local wind and other atmospheric conditions, and a best estimate of source parameters, including the mass eruption rate, is provided in near real-time (within a time interval of 5 minutes) as soon as an eruption has started. Since neither the time nor the location of the next Icelandic eruption is known the system has been developed with a guiding principle of maximum flexibility, and it can effortlessly be implemented elsewhere needing minimum adoption to local conditions. Moreover, it is designed to be easily upgraded, which allows future extension of the existing monitoring network, learning from new events, and incorporating new technologies and model improvements. Data-flow, features and integrated models within REFIR will be presented and strategies for implementing potential future research developments on ash plume dynamics will be discussed.

  20. Improved NASA-ANOPP Noise Prediction Computer Code for Advanced Subsonic Propulsion Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kontos, K. B.; Janardan, B. A.; Gliebe, P. R.

    1996-01-01

    Recent experience using ANOPP to predict turbofan engine flyover noise suggests that it over-predicts overall EPNL by a significant amount. An improvement in this prediction method is desired for system optimization and assessment studies of advanced UHB engines. An assessment of the ANOPP fan inlet, fan exhaust, jet, combustor, and turbine noise prediction methods is made using static engine component noise data from the CF6-8OC2, E(3), and QCSEE turbofan engines. It is shown that the ANOPP prediction results are generally higher than the measured GE data, and that the inlet noise prediction method (Heidmann method) is the most significant source of this overprediction. Fan noise spectral comparisons show that improvements to the fan tone, broadband, and combination tone noise models are required to yield results that more closely simulate the GE data. Suggested changes that yield improved fan noise predictions but preserve the Heidmann model structure are identified and described. These changes are based on the sets of engine data mentioned, as well as some CFM56 engine data that was used to expand the combination tone noise database. It should be noted that the recommended changes are based on an analysis of engines that are limited to single stage fans with design tip relative Mach numbers greater than one.

  1. Advanced Numerical Prediction and Modeling of Tropical Cyclones Using WRF-NMM modeling system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gopalakrishnan, S. G.; Rogers, R. F.; Marks, F. D.; Atlas, R.

    2007-12-01

    Dramatic improvement in tropical cyclone track forecasts have occurred through advancements in high quality observations, high speed computers and improvements in dynamical models. Similar advancements now need to be made for tropical cyclone intensity, structure and rainfall prediction. The Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF) is a general purpose, multi-institutional mesoscale modeling system. A version of the WRF model called the HWRF/WRF-NMM modeling system, developed at the National Center for Environmental Protection (NCEP) was recently adopted for hurricane forecasting (Gopalakrishnan et al, 2006) by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). At the Hurricane Research Division (HRD/AOML/OAR) we are developing and further advancing a research version of this modeling system. This work is done in collaboration with the Developmental Test bed Center (DTC), Boulder, CO, Global Systems division (GSD/ESRL/OAR), Boulder, CO, The Air Resources Laboratory (ARL/OAR), Washington, D.C., the U.S. university community, the Indian Institute of Technology, IIT.Delhi, India, and the India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India Our modeling effort includes advancing the WRF system for Ensemble Hurricane Forecasting, advancing our understanding of Ensemble-vs- High Resolution Forecasting of Hurricanes, advancing WRF/WRF-NMM with better analysis techniques (e.g. Four Dimensional Data Assimilation) for improving forecasts and above all, advancing our understanding of hurricane processes using a high resolution numerical modeling approach. Examples of some of these applications will be shown here. Reference: NCEP's Two-way-Interactive-Moving-Nest NMM-WRF modeling system for Hurricane Forecasting, S.G. Gopalakrishnan, N. Surgi, R. Tuleya, and Z. Janjic 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 24- 28 April 2006, Monterey, California.

  2. Unsteady blade-surface pressures on a large-scale advanced propeller: Prediction and data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1990-01-01

    An unsteady 3-D Euler analysis technique is employed to compute the flow field of an advanced propeller operating at an angle of attack. The predicted blade pressure waveforms are compared with wind tunnel data at two Mach numbers, 0.5 and 0.2. The inflow angle is three degrees. For an inflow Mach number of 0.5, the predicted pressure response is in fair agreement with data: the predicted phases of the waveforms are in close agreement with data while the magnitudes are underpredicted. At the low Mach number of 0.2 (takeoff), the numerical solution shows the formation of a leading edge vortex which is in qualitative agreement with measurements. However, the highly nonlinear pressure response measured on the blade suction surface is not captured in the present inviscid analysis.

  3. Unsteady blade surface pressures on a large-scale advanced propeller - Prediction and data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1990-01-01

    An unsteady three dimensional Euler analysis technique is employed to compute the flowfield of an advanced propeller operating at an angle of attack. The predicted blade pressure waveforms are compared with wind tunnel data at two Mach numbers, 0.5 and 0.2. The inflow angle is three degrees. For an inflow Mach number of 0.5, the predicted pressure response is in fair agreement with data: the predicted phases of the waveforms are in close agreement with data while the magnitudes are underpredicted. At the low Mach number of 0.2 (take-off) the numerical solution shows the formation of a leading edge vortex which is in qualitative agreement with measurements. However, the highly nonlinear pressure response measured on the blade suction surface is not captured in the present inviscid analysis.

  4. Comparison of two imaging programs in predicting the soft tissue changes with mandibular advancement surgery.

    PubMed

    Ravindranath, Sneha; Krishnaswamy, Nathamuni Rengarajan; Sundaram, Venkateswaran

    2011-01-01

    Establishing common objectives and expectations concerning the outcome of proposed surgical orthodontic therapy is a crucial part of the treatment planning process, which has been greatly simplified by imaging software. The purpose of this study was to investigate the reliability of two surgical imaging programs--Dolphin Imaging 10 and Vistadent OC--in simulating the actual outcome of mandibular advancement surgery by using a visual analog scale (VAS) judged by a panel of orthodontists, oral surgeons, and laypersons. The predictions were also analyzed with soft tissue cephalometric evaluation. The results of the study showed that in predicting the surgical outcome evaluated by the VAS, both programs received a mean rating of fair. One was marginally superior for the overall assessment among all three panelist groups. Region-wise, rating indicated the lower lip region to be the least accurate, and the submental region received the highest scores. The soft tissue cephalometric parameters showed minimal differences except for the lower lip parameters. Thus, Dolphin Imaging 10 and Vistadent OC are reliable in predicting mandibular advancement surgical outcomes with inaccuracies chiefly in the lower lip region.

  5. Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry V.; Schifer, Nicholas A.; Briggs, Maxwell H.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASCs convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a particular operating frequency, hot end and cold end temperatures, and specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. Microporous bulk insulation is used in the ground support test hardware to minimize the loss of thermal energy from the electric heat source to the environment. The insulation package is characterized before operation to predict how much heat will be absorbed by the convertor and how much will be lost to the environment during operation. In an effort to validate these predictions, numerous tasks have been performed, which provided a more accurate value for net heat input into the ASCs. This test and modeling effort included: (a) making thermophysical property measurements of test setup materials to provide inputs to the numerical models, (b) acquiring additional test data that was collected during convertor tests to provide numerical models with temperature profiles of the test setup via thermocouple and infrared measurements, (c) using multidimensional numerical models (computational fluid dynamics code) to predict net heat input of an operating convertor, and (d) using validation test hardware to provide direct comparison of numerical results and validate the multidimensional numerical models used to predict convertor net heat input. This effort produced high fidelity ASC net heat input predictions, which were successfully validated using

  6. Plasma mRNA as liquid biopsy predicts chemo-sensitivity in advanced gastric cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Shen, Jie; Kong, Weiwei; Wu, Yuanna; Ren, Haozhen; Wei, Jia; Yang, Yang; Yang, Yan; Yu, Lixia; Guan, Wenxian; Liu, Baorui

    2017-01-01

    Predictive biomarkers based individualized chemotherapy can improve efficacy. However, for those advanced patients, it may be impossible to obtain the tissues from operation. Tissues from biopsy may not be always enough for gene detection. Thus, biomarker from blood could be a non-invasive and useful tool to provide real-time information in the procedure of treatment. To further understand the role of plasma mRNA in chemo-efficiency prediction, several mRNA expression levels were assessed in plasma and paired tumor tissues from 133 locally advanced gastric cancer patients (stage III), and mRNA levels were correlated with chemosensitivity to docetaxel, pemetrexed, platinum, and irinotecan. mRNA expression level in 64 advanced gastric cancer patients (stage IV) was also examined (55 in test group, and 9 in control), and chemotherapy in the test group were given according to the plasma gene detection. As a result, in the 133 patients with locally advanced gastric cancer (Stage III), correlations were observed between the mRNA expression of plasma/tumor BRCA1 levels and docetaxel sensitivity (P<0.001), plasma/tumor TS and pemetrexed sensitivity (P<0.001), plasma/tumor BRCA1 and platinum sensitivity (plasma, P=0.016; tumor, P<0.001), and plasma/tumor TOPO1 and irinotecan sensitivity (plasma, P=0.015; tumor, P=0.011). Among another 64 patients with advanced cancer (Stage IV), the median OS of test group was 15.5m (95% CI=10.1 to 20.9m), the PFS was 9.1m (95% CI=8.0 to 10.2m), which were significant longer than the control (P=0.047 for OS, P=0.038 for PFS). The mortality risk was higher in the control than patients treated according to the plasma gene detection (HR in the control=2.34, 95% CI=0.93 to 5.88, P=0.071). Plasma mRNA as liquid biopsy could be ideal recourse for examination to predict chemo-sensitivity in gastric cancer.

  7. Plasma mRNA as liquid biopsy predicts chemo-sensitivity in advanced gastric cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Jie; Kong, Weiwei; Wu, Yuanna; Ren, Haozhen; Wei, Jia; Yang, Yang; Yang, Yan; Yu, Lixia; Guan, Wenxian; Liu, Baorui

    2017-01-01

    Predictive biomarkers based individualized chemotherapy can improve efficacy. However, for those advanced patients, it may be impossible to obtain the tissues from operation. Tissues from biopsy may not be always enough for gene detection. Thus, biomarker from blood could be a non-invasive and useful tool to provide real-time information in the procedure of treatment. To further understand the role of plasma mRNA in chemo-efficiency prediction, several mRNA expression levels were assessed in plasma and paired tumor tissues from 133 locally advanced gastric cancer patients (stage III), and mRNA levels were correlated with chemosensitivity to docetaxel, pemetrexed, platinum, and irinotecan. mRNA expression level in 64 advanced gastric cancer patients (stage IV) was also examined (55 in test group, and 9 in control), and chemotherapy in the test group were given according to the plasma gene detection. As a result, in the 133 patients with locally advanced gastric cancer (Stage III), correlations were observed between the mRNA expression of plasma/tumor BRCA1 levels and docetaxel sensitivity (P<0.001), plasma/tumor TS and pemetrexed sensitivity (P<0.001), plasma/tumor BRCA1 and platinum sensitivity (plasma, P=0.016; tumor, P<0.001), and plasma/tumor TOPO1 and irinotecan sensitivity (plasma, P=0.015; tumor, P=0.011). Among another 64 patients with advanced cancer (Stage IV), the median OS of test group was 15.5m (95% CI=10.1 to 20.9m), the PFS was 9.1m (95% CI=8.0 to 10.2m), which were significant longer than the control (P=0.047 for OS, P=0.038 for PFS). The mortality risk was higher in the control than patients treated according to the plasma gene detection (HR in the control=2.34, 95% CI=0.93 to 5.88, P=0.071). Plasma mRNA as liquid biopsy could be ideal recourse for examination to predict chemo-sensitivity in gastric cancer.

  8. Development of a constitutive model for creep and life prediction of advanced silicon nitride ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Ding, J.L.; Liu, K.C.; Brinkman, C.R.

    1992-12-31

    A constitutive model capable of describing deformation and predicting rupture life was developed for high temperature ceramic materials under general thermal-mechanical loading conditions. The model was developed based on the deformation and fracture behavior observed from a systematic experimental study on an advanced silicon nitride (Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}) ceramic material. Validity of the model was evaluated with reference to creep and creep rupture data obtained under constant and stepwise-varied loading conditions, including the effects of annealing on creep and creep rupture behavior.

  9. A New Best-Estimate Methodology for Determining Magnetic Parameters Related to Field Anomalies Produced by Buried Thin Dikes and Horizontal Cylinder-like Structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tlas, M.; Asfahani, J.

    2011-05-01

    A new best estimate methodology is proposed and oriented towards the determination of parameters related to a magnetic field anomaly produced by a simple geometric-shaped model or body such as a thin dike and horizontal cylinder. This approach is mainly based on solving a system of algebraic linear equations for estimating the three model parameters, e.g., the depth to the top (center) of the body ( z), the index parameter or the effective magnetization angle ( θ) and the amplitude coefficient or the effective magnetization intensity ( k). The utility and validity of this method is demonstrated by analyzing two synthetic magnetic anomalies, using simulated data generated from a known model with different random errors components and a known statistical distribution. This approach was also examined and applied to two real field magnetic anomalies from the United States and Brazil. The agreement between the results obtained by the proposed method and those obtained by other interpretation methods is good and comparable. Moreover, the depth obtained by such an approach is found to be in high accordance with that obtained from drilling information. The advantages of such a proposed method over other existing interpretative techniques are clarified, where it can be generalized to be automatically applicable for interpreting other geological structures described by mathematical formulations.

  10. Multiscale Modeling of Advanced Materials for Damage Prediction and Structural Health Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkowski, Luke

    Advanced aerospace materials, including fiber reinforced polymer and ceramic matrix composites, are increasingly being used in critical and demanding applications, challenging the current damage prediction, detection, and quantification methodologies. Multiscale computational models offer key advantages over traditional analysis techniques and can provide the necessary capabilities for the development of a comprehensive virtual structural health monitoring (SHM) framework. Virtual SHM has the potential to drastically improve the design and analysis of aerospace components through coupling the complementary capabilities of models able to predict the initiation and propagation of damage under a wide range of loading and environmental scenarios, simulate interrogation methods for damage detection and quantification, and assess the health of a structure. A major component of the virtual SHM framework involves having micromechanics-based multiscale composite models that can provide the elastic, inelastic, and damage behavior of composite material systems under mechanical and thermal loading conditions and in the presence of microstructural complexity and variability. Quantification of the role geometric and architectural variability in the composite microstructure plays in the local and global composite behavior is essential to the development of appropriate scale-dependent unit cells and boundary conditions for the multiscale model. Once the composite behavior is predicted and variability effects assessed, wave-based SHM simulation models serve to provide knowledge on the probability of detection and characterization accuracy of damage present in the composite. The research presented in this dissertation provides the foundation for a comprehensive SHM framework for advanced aerospace materials. The developed models enhance the prediction of damage formation as a result of ceramic matrix composite processing, improve the understanding of the effects of architectural and

  11. A hybrid numerical technique for predicting the aerodynamic and acoustic fields of advanced turboprops

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Homicz, G. F.; Moselle, J. R.

    1985-01-01

    A hybrid numerical procedure is presented for the prediction of the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of advanced turboprops. A hybrid scheme is proposed which in principle leads to a consistent simultaneous prediction of both fields. In the inner flow a finite difference method, the Approximate-Factorization Alternating-Direction-Implicit (ADI) scheme, is used to solve the nonlinear Euler equations. In the outer flow the linearized acoustic equations are solved via a Boundary-Integral Equation (BIE) method. The two solutions are iteratively matched across a fictitious interface in the flow so as to maintain continuity. At convergence the resulting aerodynamic load prediction will automatically satisfy the appropriate free-field boundary conditions at the edge of the finite difference grid, while the acoustic predictions will reflect the back-reaction of the radiated field on the magnitude of the loading source terms, as well as refractive effects in the inner flow. The equations and logic needed to match the two solutions are developed and the computer program implementing the procedure is described. Unfortunately, no converged solutions were obtained, due to unexpectedly large running times. The reasons for this are discussed and several means to alleviate the situation are suggested.

  12. A prospective study of the efficacy of magnetic resonance spectroscopy imaging for predicting locally advanced prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Razi, Ali; Parizi, Mehdi Kardoust; Kazemeini, Seid Mohammad; Abedi, Akbar

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of magnetic resonance spectroscopy imaging (MRSI) for predicting locally advanced prostate cancer (PC). Materials and methods: Between April 2009 and July 2012, 80 consecutive patients with clinically localized PC had undergone endorectal MRSI before radical retropubic prostatectomy. Clinicopathological parameters, including age, preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA), Gleason score (GS) at biopsy, perinural invasion at biopsy, prostate weight at surgery, GS of surgical specimen, and pathological staging were recorded. The MRSI findings were compared with the histopathological findings of the radical prostatectomy. The diagnostic accuracy measures consisting of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) of MRSI, and other variables in the diagnosis of locally advanced PC (Pathology Stages pT3a, pT3b, or pT4) were evaluated. Results: Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of MRSI in detecting locally advanced PC is 42.4%, 93.6%, 82.3%, and 69.8%, respectively [area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve=0.658, p value <0.0001]. MRSI, cancer-positive core percentage at biopsy, and GS at biopsy are more accurate factors among all the predictive variables in predicting locally advanced PC. Conclusion: MRSI may be considered as a complementary diagnostic modality with high specificity and moderate sensitivity in predicting locally advanced PC. Combination of this modality with other predictive factors helps the surgeon and patient to select an appropriate treatment strategy. PMID:26328204

  13. Predictive Factors of Tumor Response After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Moureau-Zabotto, Laurence; Farnault, Bertrand; de Chaisemartin, Cecile; Esterni, Benjamin; Lelong, Bernard; Viret, Frederic; Giovannini, Marc; Monges, Genevieve; Delpero, Jean-Robert; Bories, Erwan; Turrini, Olivier; Viens, Patrice; Salem, Naji

    2011-06-01

    Purpose: Neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by surgery is the standard of care for locally advanced rectal cancer. The aim of this study was to correlate tumor response to survival and to identify predictive factors for tumor response after chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: From 1998 to 2008, 168 patients with histologically proven locally advanced adenocarcinoma treated by preoperative chemoradiation before total mesorectal excision were retrospectively studied. They received a radiation dose of 45 Gy with a concomitant 5-fluorouracil (5-FU)-based chemotherapy. Analysis of tumor response was based on lowering of the T stage between pretreatment endorectal ultrasound and pathologic specimens. Overall and progression-free survival rates were correlated with tumor response. Tumor response was analyzed with predictive factors. Results: The median follow-up was 34 months. Five-year disease-free survival and overall survival rates were, of 44.4% and 74.5% in the whole population, 83.4% and 83.4%, respectively, in patients with pathological complete response, 38.6% and 71.9%, respectively, in patients with tumor downstaging, and 29.1and 58.9% respectively, in patients with absence of response. A pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level of <5 ng/ml was significantly independently associated with pathologic complete tumor response (p = 0.019). Pretreatment small tumor size (p = 0.04), pretreatment CEA level of <5 ng/ml (p = 0.008), and chemotherapy with capecitabine (vs. 5-FU) (p = 0.04) were significantly associated with tumor downstaging. Conclusions: Downstaging and complete response after CRT improved progression-free survival and overall survival of locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma. In multivariate analysis, a pretreatment CEA level of <5 ng/ml was associated with complete tumor response. Thus, small tumor size, a pretreatment CEA level of < 5ng/ml, and use of capecitabine were associated with tumor downstaging.

  14. Advance Prediction of the March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake: A Missed Opportunity for Disaster Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, C. A.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Soloviev, A.

    2012-12-01

    There was a missed opportunity for implementing important disaster preparedness measures following an earthquake prediction that was announced as an alarm in mid-2001. This intermediate-term middle-range prediction was the initiation of a chain of alarms that successfully detected the time, region, and magnitude range for the magnitude 9.0 March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The prediction chains were made using an algorithm called M8 and is the latest of many predictions tested worldwide for more than 25 years, the results of which show at least a 70% success rate. The earthquake detection could have been utilized to implement measures and improve earthquake preparedness in advance; unfortunately this was not done, in part due to the predictions' limited distribution and the lack of applying existing methods for using intermediate-term predictions to make decisions for taking action. The resulting earthquake and induced tsunami caused tremendous devastation to north-east Japan. Methods that were known in advance of the predication and further advanced during the prediction timeframe are presented in a scenario describing some possibilities on how the 2001 prediction may have been utilized to reduce significant damage, including damage to the Fukushima nuclear power plant, and to show prudent cost-effective actions can be taken if the prediction certainty is known, but not necessarily high. The purpose of this presentation is to show how the prediction information can be strategically used to enhance disaster preparedness and reduce future impacts from the world's largest earthquakes.

  15. Predictive Modeling of Estrogen Receptor Binding Agents Using Advanced Cheminformatics Tools and Massive Public Data

    PubMed Central

    Ribay, Kathryn; Kim, Marlene T.; Wang, Wenyi; Pinolini, Daniel; Zhu, Hao

    2016-01-01

    Estrogen receptors (ERα) are a critical target for drug design as well as a potential source of toxicity when activated unintentionally. Thus, evaluating potential ERα binding agents is critical in both drug discovery and chemical toxicity areas. Using computational tools, e.g., Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models, can predict potential ERα binding agents before chemical synthesis. The purpose of this project was to develop enhanced predictive models of ERα binding agents by utilizing advanced cheminformatics tools that can integrate publicly available bioassay data. The initial ERα binding agent data set, consisting of 446 binders and 8307 non-binders, was obtained from the Tox21 Challenge project organized by the NIH Chemical Genomics Center (NCGC). After removing the duplicates and inorganic compounds, this data set was used to create a training set (259 binders and 259 non-binders). This training set was used to develop QSAR models using chemical descriptors. The resulting models were then used to predict the binding activity of 264 external compounds, which were available to us after the models were developed. The cross-validation results of training set [Correct Classification Rate (CCR) = 0.72] were much higher than the external predictivity of the unknown compounds (CCR = 0.59). To improve the conventional QSAR models, all compounds in the training set were used to search PubChem and generate a profile of their biological responses across thousands of bioassays. The most important bioassays were prioritized to generate a similarity index that was used to calculate the biosimilarity score between each two compounds. The nearest neighbors for each compound within the set were then identified and its ERα binding potential was predicted by its nearest neighbors in the training set. The hybrid model performance (CCR = 0.94 for cross validation; CCR = 0.68 for external prediction) showed significant improvement over the original QSAR

  16. Contribution to the development of DOE ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data (CMBE) products: Satellite data over the ARM permanent and AMF sites: Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, B; Dong, X; Xie, S

    2012-05-18

    To support the LLNL ARM infrastructure team Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) data development, the University of North Dakota (UND)'s group will provide the LLNL team the NASA CERES and ISCCP satellite retrieved cloud and radiative properties for the periods when they are available over the ARM permanent research sites. The current available datasets, to date, are as follows: the CERES/TERRA during 200003-200812; the CERES/AQUA during 200207-200712; and the ISCCP during 199601-200806. The detailed parameters list below: (1) CERES Shortwave radiative fluxes (net and downwelling); (2) CERES Longwave radiative fluxes (upwelling) - (items 1 & 2 include both all-sky and clear-sky fluxes); (3) CERES Layered clouds (total, high, middle, and low); (4) CERES Cloud thickness; (5) CERES Effective cloud height; (6) CERES cloud microphysical/optical properties; (7) ISCCP optical depth cloud top pressure matrix; (8) ISCCP derived cloud types (r.g., cirrus, stratus, etc.); and (9) ISCCP infrared derived cloud top pressures. (10) The UND group shall apply necessary quality checks to the original CERES and ISCCP data to remove suspicious data points. The temporal resolution for CERES data should be all available satellite overpasses over the ARM sites; for ISCCP data, it should be 3-hourly. The spatial resolution is the closest satellite field of view observations to the ARM surface sites. All the provided satellite data should be in a format that is consistent with the current ARM CMBE dataset so that the satellite data can be easily merged into the CMBE dataset.

  17. Comparison of the Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale to predict falls in community-dwelling adults

    PubMed Central

    Jeon, Yong-Jin; Kim, Gyoung-Mo

    2017-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to investigate and compare the predictive properties of Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scales, in a group of independently-functioning community dwelling older adults. [Subjects and Methods] Ninety-seven community-dwelling older adults (male=39, female=58) who were capable of walking independently on assessment were included in this study. A binary logistic regression analysis of the Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale scores was used to investigate a predictive model for fall risk. A receiver operating characteristic analysis was conducted for each, to determine the cut-off for optimal levels of sensitivity and specificity. [Results] The overall prediction success rate was 89.7%; the total Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale scores were significant in predicting fall risk. Receiver operating characteristic analysis determined that a cut-off score of 40 out of 56 on the Berg Balance Scale produced the highest sensitivity (0.82) and specificity (0.67), and a cut-off score of 22 out of 40 on the Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale produced the highest sensitivity (0.85) and specificity (0.65) in predicting faller status. [Conclusion] The Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scales can predict fall risk, when used for independently-functioning community-dwelling older adults. PMID:28265146

  18. Comparison of the Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale to predict falls in community-dwelling adults.

    PubMed

    Jeon, Yong-Jin; Kim, Gyoung-Mo

    2017-02-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to investigate and compare the predictive properties of Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scales, in a group of independently-functioning community dwelling older adults. [Subjects and Methods] Ninety-seven community-dwelling older adults (male=39, female=58) who were capable of walking independently on assessment were included in this study. A binary logistic regression analysis of the Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale scores was used to investigate a predictive model for fall risk. A receiver operating characteristic analysis was conducted for each, to determine the cut-off for optimal levels of sensitivity and specificity. [Results] The overall prediction success rate was 89.7%; the total Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale scores were significant in predicting fall risk. Receiver operating characteristic analysis determined that a cut-off score of 40 out of 56 on the Berg Balance Scale produced the highest sensitivity (0.82) and specificity (0.67), and a cut-off score of 22 out of 40 on the Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale produced the highest sensitivity (0.85) and specificity (0.65) in predicting faller status. [Conclusion] The Berg Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance Scales can predict fall risk, when used for independently-functioning community-dwelling older adults.

  19. The prediction of the building precision in the Laser Engineered Net Shaping process using advanced networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Z. L.; Li, D. C.; Lu, B. H.; Zhang, A. F.; Zhu, G. X.; Pi, G.

    2010-05-01

    Laser Engineered Net Shaping (LENS) is an advanced manufacturing technology, but it is difficult to control the depositing height (DH) of the prototype because there are many technology parameters influencing the forming process. The effect of main parameters (laser power, scanning speed and powder feeding rate) on the DH of single track is firstly analyzed, and then it shows that there is the complex nonlinear intrinsic relationship between them. In order to predict the DH, the back propagation (BP) based network improved with Adaptive learning rate and Momentum coefficient (AM) algorithm, and the least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) network are both adopted. The mapping relationship between above parameters and the DH is constructed according to training samples collected by LENS experiments, and then their generalization ability, function-approximating ability and real-time are contrastively investigated. The results show that although the predicted result by the BP-AM approximates the experimental result, above performance index of the LS-SVM are better than those of the BP-AM. Finally, high-definition thin-walled parts of AISI316L are successfully fabricated. Hence, the LS-SVM network is more suitable for the prediction of the DH.

  20. In silico ADMET prediction: recent advances, current challenges and future trends.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Feixiong; Li, Weihua; Liu, Guixia; Tang, Yun

    2013-01-01

    There are numerous small molecular compounds around us to affect our health, such as drugs, pesticides, food additives, industrial chemicals, and environmental pollutants. Over decades, properties related to absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity (ADMET) have become one of the most important issues to assess the effects or risks of these compounds on human body. Recent high-rate drug withdrawals increase the pressure on regulators and pharmaceutical industry to improve preclinical safety testing. Since in vivo and in vitro evaluations are costly and laborious, in silico techniques have been widely used to estimate these properties. In this review, we would briefly describe the recent advances of in silico ADMET prediction, with emphasis on substructure pattern recognition method that we developed recently. Challenges and limitations in the area of in silico ADMET prediction were further discussed, such as application domain of models, models validation techniques, and global versus local models. At last, several new promising research directions were provided, such as computational systems toxicology (toxicogenomics), data-integration and meta-decision making systems, which could be used for systemic in silico ADMET prediction in drug discovery and hazard risk assessment.

  1. Prediction and preliminary standardization of fire debris constituents with the advanced distillation curve method.

    PubMed

    Bruno, Thomas J; Lovestead, Tara M; Huber, Marcia L

    2011-01-01

    The recent National Academy of Sciences report on forensic sciences states that the study of fire patterns and debris in arson fires is in need of additional work and eventual standardization. We discuss a recently introduced method that can provide predicted evaporation patterns for ignitable liquids as a function of temperature. The method is a complex fluid analysis protocol, the advanced distillation curve approach, featuring a composition explicit data channel for each distillate fraction (for qualitative, quantitative, and trace analysis), low uncertainty temperature measurements that are thermodynamic state points that can be modeled with an equation of state, consistency with a century of historical data, and an assessment of the energy content of each distillate fraction. We discuss the application of the method to kerosenes and gasolines and outline how expansion of the scope of fluids to other ignitable liquids can benefit the criminalist in the analysis of fire debris for arson.

  2. Edge Fracture Prediction ofTraditional and Advanced Trimming Processes for AA6111-T4 Sheets

    SciTech Connect

    Hu, Xiaohua; Choi, Kyoo Sil; Sun, Xin; Golovashchenko, Segey F.

    2014-02-15

    This work examines the traditional and advanced trimming of AA6111-T4 aluminum sheets with finite element simulations. The Rice-Tracy damage model is used for the simulation with damage parameters estimated from experimental observation of grain aspect ratio near the fracture surface of trimmed parts. Fine meshes at the shearing zone, adaptive meshing, and adaptive contact techniques are used to accurately capture the contact interactions between the sharp corner of the trimming tools and the blank to be trimmed. To the knowledge of the authors, these are the first trimming simulations that can predict the effects of shearing clearance on burr heights with quantitative accuracy for AA6111-T4 aluminum sheets. In addition, the models have also accurately reproduced the crack initiation site as well as burr and sliver formation mechanisms observed experimentally.

  3. Predicting Inner Heliospheric Solar Wind Conditions in Advance of Solar Probe Plus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Case, A. W.; Kasper, J. C.; Korreck, K. E.; Stevens, M. L.; Cohen, O.; Salem, C. S.; Halekas, J. S.; Larson, D. E.; Maruca, B. A.

    2012-12-01

    In advance of the upcoming inner heliospheric missions (Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus) it is vital to have an accurate prediction of the range of solar wind conditions that occur between 9.5Rs and 0.7AU. These conditions will place constraints on instrument design and the operational modes that are used. In this paper, we discuss and compare different methods of predicting the solar wind bulk plasma parameters. One method uses observed 1AU conditions observed with the Wind spacecraft combined with scaling laws derived from Helios observations. We extend this simple model by using a more realistic solar wind velocity profile in addition to the Wind and Helios observations. Another method uses 3D MHD simulations from which solar wind conditions along a spacecraft trajectory can be extracted. We discuss some implications of these models in the design of the Solar Wind Electrons Alphas and Protons investigation, a suite of solar wind instruments being designed to fly on Solar Probe Plus.

  4. Investigation to advance prediction techniques of the low-speed aerodynamics of V/STOL aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maskew, B.; Strash, D.; Nathman, J.; Dvorak, F. A.

    1985-01-01

    A computer program, VSAERO, has been applied to a number of V/STOL configurations with a view to advancing prediction techniques for the low-speed aerodynamic characteristics. The program couples a low-order panel method with surface streamline calculation and integral boundary layer procedures. The panel method--which uses piecewise constant source and doublet panels-includes an iterative procedure for wake shape and models boundary layer displacement effect using the source transpiration technique. Certain improvements to a basic vortex tube jet model were installed in the code prior to evaluation. Very promising results were obtained for surface pressures near a jet issuing at 90 deg from a flat plate. A solid core model was used in the initial part of the jet with a simple entrainment model. Preliminary representation of the downstream separation zone significantly improve the correlation. The program accurately predicted the pressure distribution inside the inlet on the Grumman 698-411 design at a range of flight conditions. Furthermore, coupled viscous/potential flow calculations gave very close correlation with experimentally determined operational boundaries dictated by the onset of separation inside the inlet. Experimentally observed degradation of these operational boundaries between nacelle-alone tests and tests on the full configuration were also indicated by the calculation. Application of the program to the General Dynamics STOL fighter design were equally encouraging. Very close agreement was observed between experiment and calculation for the effects of power on pressure distribution, lift and lift curve slope.

  5. Advanced error-prediction LDPC with temperature compensation for highly reliable SSDs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokutomi, Tsukasa; Tanakamaru, Shuhei; Iwasaki, Tomoko Ogura; Takeuchi, Ken

    2015-09-01

    To improve the reliability of NAND Flash memory based solid-state drives (SSDs), error-prediction LDPC (EP-LDPC) has been proposed for multi-level-cell (MLC) NAND Flash memory (Tanakamaru et al., 2012, 2013), which is effective for long retention times. However, EP-LDPC is not as effective for triple-level cell (TLC) NAND Flash memory, because TLC NAND Flash has higher error rates and is more sensitive to program-disturb error. Therefore, advanced error-prediction LDPC (AEP-LDPC) has been proposed for TLC NAND Flash memory (Tokutomi et al., 2014). AEP-LDPC can correct errors more accurately by precisely describing the error phenomena. In this paper, the effects of AEP-LDPC are investigated in a 2×nm TLC NAND Flash memory with temperature characterization. Compared with LDPC-with-BER-only, the SSD's data-retention time is increased by 3.4× and 9.5× at room-temperature (RT) and 85 °C, respectively. Similarly, the acceptable BER is increased by 1.8× and 2.3×, respectively. Moreover, AEP-LDPC can correct errors with pre-determined tables made at higher temperatures to shorten the measurement time before shipping. Furthermore, it is found that one table can cover behavior over a range of temperatures in AEP-LDPC. As a result, the total table size can be reduced to 777 kBytes, which makes this approach more practical.

  6. Development and Application of Advanced Weather Prediction Technologies for the Wind Energy Industry (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahoney, W. P.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.; Myers, W.; Johnson, D.

    2010-12-01

    Wind energy decision makers are required to make critical judgments on a daily basis with regard to energy generation, distribution, demand, storage, and integration. Accurate knowledge of the present and future state of the atmosphere is vital in making these decisions. As wind energy portfolios expand, this forecast problem is taking on new urgency because wind forecast inaccuracies frequently lead to substantial economic losses and constrain the national expansion of renewable energy. Improved weather prediction and precise spatial analysis of small-scale weather events are crucial for renewable energy management. In early 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began a collaborative project with Xcel Energy Services, Inc. to perform research and develop technologies to improve Xcel Energy's ability to increase the amount of wind energy in their generation portfolio. The agreement and scope of work was designed to provide highly detailed, localized wind energy forecasts to enable Xcel Energy to more efficiently integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid. The wind prediction technologies are designed to help Xcel Energy operators make critical decisions about powering down traditional coal and natural gas-powered plants when sufficient wind energy is predicted. The wind prediction technologies have been designed to cover Xcel Energy wind resources spanning a region from Wisconsin to New Mexico. The goal of the project is not only to improve Xcel Energy’s wind energy prediction capabilities, but also to make technological advancements in wind and wind energy prediction, expand our knowledge of boundary layer meteorology, and share the results across the renewable energy industry. To generate wind energy forecasts, NCAR is incorporating observations of current atmospheric conditions from a variety of sources including satellites, aircraft, weather radars, ground-based weather stations, wind profilers, and even wind sensors on

  7. Research Area 3 - Mathematical Sciences: Multiscale Modeling of the Mechanics of Advanced Energetic Materials Relevant to Detonation Prediction

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-08-24

    new energetic materials with enhanced energy release rates and reduced sensitivity to unintentional detonation . The following results have been...Mechanics of Advanced Energetic Materials Relevant to Detonation Prediction The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the...modeling, molecular simulations, detonation prediction REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S

  8. The role of advanced reactive surface area characterization in improving predictions of mineral reaction rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckingham, L. E.; Zhang, S.; Mitnick, E.; Cole, D. R.; Yang, L.; Anovitz, L. M.; Sheets, J.; Swift, A.; Kneafsey, T. J.; Landrot, G.; Mito, S.; Xue, Z.; Steefel, C. I.; DePaolo, D. J.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.

    2014-12-01

    Geologic sequestration of CO2 in deep sedimentary formations is a promising means of mitigating carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants but the long-term fate of injected CO2 is challenging to predict. Reactive transport models are used to gain insight over long times but rely on laboratory determined mineral reaction rates that have been difficult to extrapolate to field systems. This, in part, is due to a lack of understanding of mineral reactive surface area. Many models use an arbitrary approximation of reactive surface area, applying orders of magnitude scaling factors to measured BET or geometric surface areas. Recently, a few more sophisticated approaches have used 2D and 3D image analyses to determine mineral-specific reactive surface areas that account for the accessibility of minerals. However, the ability of these advanced surface area estimates to improve predictions of mineral reaction rates has yet to be determined. In this study, we fuse X-ray microCT, SEM QEMSCAN, XRD, SANS, and SEM-FIB analysis to determine mineral-specific accessible reactive surface areas for a core sample from the Nagaoka pilot CO2 injection site (Japan). This sample is primarily quartz, plagioclase, smectite, K-feldspar, and pyroxene. SEM imaging shows abundant smectite cement and grain coatings that decrease the fluid accessibility of other minerals. However, analysis of FIB-SEM images reveals that smectite nano-pores are well connected such that access to underlying minerals is not occluded by smectite coatings. Mineral-specific accessible surfaces are determined, accounting for the connectivity of the pore space with and without connected smectite nano-pores. The large-scale impact of variations in accessibility and dissolution rates are then determined through continuum scale modeling using grid-cell specific information on accessible surface areas. This approach will be compared with a traditional continuum scale model using mineral abundances and common surface area

  9. A Priori Attitudes Predict Amniocentesis Uptake in Women of Advanced Maternal Age: A Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Grinshpun-Cohen, Julia; Miron-Shatz, Talya; Rhee-Morris, Laila; Briscoe, Barbara; Pras, Elon; Towner, Dena

    2015-01-01

    Amniocentesis is an invasive procedure performed during pregnancy to determine, among other things, whether the fetus has Down syndrome. It is often preceded by screening, which gives a probabilistic risk assessment. Thus, ample information is conveyed to women with the goal to inform their decisions. This study examined the factors that predict amniocentesis uptake among pregnant women of advanced maternal age (older than 35 years old at the time of childbirth). Participants filled out a questionnaire regarding risk estimates, demographics, and attitudes on screening and pregnancy termination before their first genetic counseling appointment and were followed up to 24 weeks of gestation. Findings show that women's decisions are not always informed by screening results or having a medical indication. Psychological factors measured at the beginning of pregnancy: amniocentesis risk tolerance, pregnancy termination tolerance, and age risk perception affected amniocentesis uptake. Although most women thought that screening for Down syndrome risk would inform their decision, they later stated other reasons for screening, such as preparing for the possibility of a child with special needs. Findings suggest that women's decisions regarding amniocentesis are driven not only by medical factors, but also by a priori attitudes. The authors believe that these should be addressed in the dialogue on women's informed use of prenatal tests.

  10. Methodological advances in predicting flow-induced dynamics of plants using mechanical-engineering theory.

    PubMed

    de Langre, Emmanuel

    2012-03-15

    The modeling of fluid-structure interactions, such as flow-induced vibrations, is a well-developed field of mechanical engineering. Many methods exist, and it seems natural to apply them to model the behavior of plants, and potentially other cantilever-like biological structures, under flow. Overcoming this disciplinary divide, and the application of such models to biological systems, will significantly advance our understanding of ecological patterns and processes and improve our predictive capabilities. Nonetheless, several methodological issues must first be addressed, which I describe here using two practical examples that have strong similarities: one from agricultural sciences and the other from nuclear engineering. Very similar issues arise in both: individual and collective behavior, small and large space and time scales, porous modeling, standard and extreme events, trade-off between the surface of exchange and individual or collective risk of damage, variability, hostile environments and, in some aspects, evolution. The conclusion is that, although similar issues do exist, which need to be exploited in some detail, there is a significant gap that requires new developments. It is obvious that living plants grow in and adapt to their environment, which certainly makes plant biomechanics fundamentally distinct from classical mechanical engineering. Moreover, the selection processes in biology and in human engineering are truly different, making the issue of safety different as well. A thorough understanding of these similarities and differences is needed to work efficiently in the application of a mechanistic approach to ecology.

  11. Predicting compliance for mandible advancement splint therapy in 96 obstructive sleep apnea patients.

    PubMed

    Ingman, Tuula; Arte, Sirpa; Bachour, Adel; Bäck, Leif; Mäkitie, Antti

    2013-12-01

    The treatment of choice in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP). Mandible advancement splint (MAS) offers an option for patients with mild or moderate OSA, who refuse or are unable to tolerate CPAP. The aim of the study was to find predictive factors in OSA for MAS therapy. The study group comprised 96 consecutive OSA patients who were sent for MAS therapy during 2008. Data were collected on the patients' general and dental condition, diagnosis, and treatment for OSA. Panoramic and cephalometric radiographs were analysed. The treatment compliance rate and problems with the use of the MAS were recorded. This rate was 57% and the significant affecting factors were protrusion of the mandible with MAS during the adaptation to the appliance as well as shorter maxillary and mandible lengths. The compliance of the MAS therapy was best in patients with short maxilla and mandible, which should be taken into consideration when planning MAS therapy for OSA patients. Finally, a sleep study should be part of the follow-up in this patient population.

  12. Soft tissue profile changes following mandibular advancement surgery: predictability and long-term outcome.

    PubMed

    Mobarak, K A; Espeland, L; Krogstad, O; Lyberg, T

    2001-04-01

    The objectives of this cephalometric study were to assess long-term changes in the soft tissue profile following mandibular advancement surgery and to investigate the relationship between soft tissue and hard tissue movements. The sample consisted of 61 patients treated consecutively for mandibular retrognathism with orthodontic therapy combined with bilateral sagittal split osteotomy and rigid fixation. Lateral cephalograms were taken on 6 occasions: immediately before surgery, immediately after surgery, 2 and 6 months after surgery, and 1 and 3 years after surgery. Postsurgical changes in the upper and the lower lips and the mentolabial fold were more pronounced among low-angle cases compared with high-angle cases. In accordance with other studies, the soft tissue chin and the mentolabial fold were generally found to follow their underlying skeletal structures in a 1:1 ratio. Because of the strong influence skeletal relapse has on soft tissue profile changes, alternative ratios of soft tissue-to-hard tissue movement that accounted for mean relapse were also generated. It is suggested that if a more realistic long-term prediction of the postsurgical soft tissue profile is desirable, then ratios incorporating mean relapse should be used rather than estimates based on a 1:1 relationship.

  13. Accuracy of three-dimensional soft tissue predictions in orthognathic surgery after Le Fort I advancement osteotomies.

    PubMed

    Ullah, R; Turner, P J; Khambay, B S

    2015-02-01

    Prediction of postoperative facial appearance after orthognathic surgery can be used for communication, managing patients' expectations,avoiding postoperative dissatisfaction and exploring different treatment options. We have assessed the accuracy of 3dMD Vultus in predicting the final 3-dimensional soft tissue facial morphology after Le Fort I advancement osteotomy. We retrospectively studied 13 patients who were treated with a Le Fort I advancement osteotomy alone. We used routine cone-beam computed tomographic (CT) images taken immediately before and a minimum of 6 months after operation, and 3dMD Vultus to virtually reposition the preoperative maxilla and mandible in their post operative positions to generate a prediction of what the soft tissue would look like. Segmented anatomical areas of the predicted mesh were then compared with the actual soft tissue. The means of the absolute distance between the 90th percentile of the mesh points for each region were calculated, and a one-sample Student's t test was used to calculate if the difference differed significantly from 3 mm.The differences in the mean absolute distances between the actual soft tissue and the prediction were significantly below 3 mm for all segmented anatomical areas (p < 0.001), and ranged from 0.65 mm (chin) to 1.17 mm (upper lip). 3dMD Vultus produces clinically satisfactory 3-dimensional facial soft tissue predictions after Le Fort I advancement osteotomy. The mass-spring model for prediction seems to be able to predict the position of the lip and chin, but its ability to predict nasal and paranasal areas could be improved.

  14. APPLICATION OF ADVANCED IN VITRO TECHNIQUES TO MEASURE, UNDERSTAND AND PREDICT THE KINETICS AND MECHANISMS OF XENOBIOTIC METABOLISM

    EPA Science Inventory

    We have developed a research program in metabolism that involves numerous collaborators across EPA as well as other federal and academic labs. A primary goal is to develop and apply advanced in vitro techniques to measure, understand and predict the kinetics and mechanisms of xen...

  15. A risk score for the prediction of advanced age-related macular degeneration: Development and validation in 2 prospective cohorts

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We aimed to develop an eye specific model which used readily available information to predict risk for advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We used the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) as our training dataset, which consisted of the 4,507 participants (contributing 1,185 affected v...

  16. Development of Computational Capabilities to Predict the Corrosion Wastage of Boiler Tubes in Advanced Combustion Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Kung, Steven; Rapp, Robert

    2014-08-31

    coal-fired boilers resulting from the coexistence of sulfur and chlorine in the fuel. A new corrosion mechanism, i.e., “Active Sulfidation Corrosion Mechanism,” has been proposed to account for the accelerated corrosion wastage observed on the furnace walls of utility boilers burning coals containing sulfur and chlorine. In addition, a second corrosion mechanism, i.e., “Active Sulfide-to-Oxide Corrosion Mechanism,” has been identified to account for the rapid corrosion attack on superheaters and reheaters. Both of the newly discovered corrosion mechanisms involve the formation of iron chloride (FeCl2) vapor from iron sulfide (FeS) and HCl, followed by the decomposition of FeCl2 via self-sustaining cycling reactions. For higher alloys containing sufficient chromium, the attack on superheaters and reheaters is dominated by Hot Corrosion in the presence of a fused salt. Furthermore, two stages of the hot corrosion mechanism have been identified and characterized in detail. The initiation of hot corrosion attack induced by molten sulfate leads to Stage 1 “acidic” fluxing and re-precipitation of the protective scale formed initially on the deposit-covered alloy surfaces. Once the protective scale is penetrated, Stage 2 Hot Corrosion is initiated, which is dominated by “basic” fluxing and re-precipitation of the scale in the fused salt. Based on the extensive corrosion information generated from this project, corrosion modeling was performed using non-linear regression analysis. As a result of the modeling efforts, two predictive equations have been formulated, one for furnace walls and the other for superheaters and reheaters. These first-of-the-kind equations can be used to estimate the corrosion rates of boiler tubes based on coal chemistry, alloy compositions, and boiler operating conditions for advanced boiler systems.

  17. Interleukin-22 predicts severity and death in advanced liver cirrhosis: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Interleukin-22 (IL-22), recently identified as a crucial parameter of pathology in experimental liver damage, may determine survival in clinical end-stage liver disease. Systematic analysis of serum IL-22 in relation to morbidity and mortality of patients with advanced liver cirrhosis has not been performed so far. Methods This is a prospective cohort study including 120 liver cirrhosis patients and 40 healthy donors to analyze systemic levels of IL-22 in relation to survival and hepatic complications. Results A total of 71% of patients displayed liver cirrhosis-related complications at study inclusion. A total of 23% of the patients died during a mean follow-up of 196 ± 165 days. Systemic IL-22 was detectable in 74% of patients but only in 10% of healthy donors (P < 0.001). Elevated levels of IL-22 were associated with ascites (P = 0.006), hepatorenal syndrome (P < 0.0001), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (P = 0.001). Patients with elevated IL-22 (>18 pg/ml, n = 57) showed significantly reduced survival compared to patients with regular (≤18 pg/ml) levels of IL-22 (321 days versus 526 days, P = 0.003). Other factors associated with reduced overall survival were high CRP (≥2.9 mg/dl, P = 0.005, hazard ratio (HR) 0.314, confidence interval (CI) (0.141 to 0.702)), elevated serum creatinine (P = 0.05, HR 0.453, CI (0.203 to 1.012)), presence of liver-related complications (P = 0.028, HR 0.258, CI (0.077 to 0.862)), model of end stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥20 (P = 0.017, HR 0.364, CI (0.159 to 0.835)) and age (P = 0.011, HR 0.955, CI (0.922 to 0.989)). Adjusted multivariate Cox proportional-hazards analysis identified elevated systemic IL-22 levels as independent predictors of reduced survival (P = 0.007, HR 0.218, CI (0.072 to 0.662)). Conclusions In patients with liver cirrhosis, elevated systemic IL-22 levels are predictive for reduced survival independently from age, liver-related complications, CRP, creatinine and the MELD score. Thus

  18. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  19. Advancing the predictive capability for pedestal structure through experiment and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, Jerry

    2012-10-01

    Prospects for predictive capability of the edge pedestal in magnetic fusion devices have been dramatically enhanced due to recent research, which was conducted jointly by the US experimental and theory communities. Studies on the C-Mod, DIII-D and NSTX devices have revealed common features, including an upper limit on pedestal pressure in ELMy H-mode determined by instability to peeling-ballooning modes (PBMs), and pedestal width which scales approximately as βpol^1/2. The width dependence is consistent with a pedestal regulated by kinetic ballooning modes (KBMs). Signatures of KBMs have been actively sought both in experimental fluctuation measurements and in gyrokinetic simulations of the pedestal, with encouraging results. Studies of the temporal evolution of the pedestal during the ELM cycle reveal a tendency for the pressure gradient to saturate in advance of the ELM, with a steady growth in the pedestal width occurring prior to the ELM crash, which further supports a model for KBMs and PBMs working together to set the pedestal structure. Such a model, EPED, reproduces the pedestal height and width to better than 20% accuracy on existing devices over a range of more than 20 in pedestal pressure. Additional transport processes are assessed for their impact on pedestal structure, in particular the relative variation of the temperature and density pedestals due, for example, to differences in edge neutral sources. Such differences are observed in dimensionlessly matched discharges on C-Mod and DIII-D, despite their having similar calculated MHD stability and similar edge fluctuations. In certain high performance discharges, such as EDA H-mode, QH-mode and I-mode, pedestal relaxation is accomplished by continuous edge fluctuations, avoiding peeling-ballooning instabilities and associated ELMs. Progress in understanding these regimes will be reported.

  20. Early skin toxicity predicts better outcomes, and early tumor shrinkage predicts better response after cetuximab treatment in advanced colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Kogawa, T; Doi, A; Shimokawa, M; Fouad, T M; Osuga, T; Tamura, F; Mizushima, T; Kimura, T; Abe, S; Ihara, H; Kukitsu, T; Sumiyoshi, T; Yoshizaki, N; Hirayama, M; Sasaki, T; Kawarada, Y; Kitashiro, S; Okushiba, S; Kondo, H; Tsuji, Y

    2015-03-01

    Cetuximab-containing treatments for metastatic colorectal cancer have been shown to have higher overall response rates and longer progression-free and overall survival than other systemic therapies. Cetuximab-related manifestations, including severe skin toxicity and early tumor shrinkage, have been shown to be predictors of response to cetuximab. We hypothesized that early skin toxicity is a predictor of response and better outcomes in patients with advanced colorectal carcinoma. We retrospectively evaluated 62 patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma who had unresectable tumors and were treated with cetuximab in our institution. Skin toxicity grade was evaluated on each treatment day. Tumor size was evaluated using computed tomography prior to treatment and 4-8 weeks after the start of treatment with cetuximab.Patients with early tumor shrinkage after starting treatment with cetuximab had a significantly higher overall response rate (P = 0.0001). Patients with early skin toxicity showed significantly longer overall survival (P = 0.0305), and patients with higher skin toxicity grades had longer progression-free survival (P = 0.0168).We have shown that early tumor shrinkage, early onset of skin toxicity, and high skin toxicity grade are predictors of treatment efficacy and/or outcome in patients with advanced colorectal carcinoma treated with cetuximab.

  1. The predictive value of MRI in detecting thyroid gland invasion in patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Lin, Peiliang; Huang, Xiaoming; Zheng, Chushan; Cai, Qian; Guan, Zhong; Liang, Faya; Zheng, Yiqing

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in detecting thyroid gland invasion (TGI) in patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma. In a retrospective chart review, 41 patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma underwent MRI scan before total laryngectomy and ipsilateral or bilateral thyroidectomy during the past 5 years. The MRI findings were compared with the postoperative pathological results. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated. Among the 41 patients, 3 had thyroid gland invasion in postoperative pathological results. MRI correctly predicted the absence of TGI in 37 of 38 patients and TGI in all 3 patients. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of MRI were 100.0, 97.4, 75.0, and 100 %, respectively, with the diagnostic accuracy of 97.6 %. In consideration of the high negative predictive value of MRI, it may help surgeons selectively preserve thyroid gland in total laryngectomy and reduce the incidence of hypothyroidism and hypoparathyroidism postoperatively.

  2. Predicted reliability of aerospace electronics: Application of two advanced probabilistic concepts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suhir, E.

    Two advanced probabilistic design-for-reliability (PDfR) concepts are addressed and discussed in application to the prediction, quantification and assurance of the aerospace electronics reliability: 1) Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) model, which is an extension of the currently widely used Arrhenius model and, in combination with the exponential law of reliability, enables one to obtain a simple, easy-to-use and physically meaningful formula for the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF) of a material or a device after the given time in operation at the given temperature and under the given stress (not necessarily mechanical), and 2) Extreme Value Distribution (EVD) technique that can be used to assess the number of repetitive loadings that result in the material/device degradation and eventually lead to its failure by closing, in a step-wise fashion, the gap between the bearing capacity (stress-free activation energy) of the material or the device and the demand (loading). It is shown that the material degradation (aging, damage accumulation, flaw propagation, etc.) can be viewed, when BAZ model is considered, as a Markovian process, and that the BAZ model can be obtained as the ultimate steady-state solution to the well-known Fokker-Planck equation in the theory of Markovian processes. It is shown also that the BAZ model addresses the worst, but a reasonably conservative, situation. It is suggested therefore that the transient period preceding the condition addressed by the steady-state BAZ model need not be accounted for in engineering evaluations. However, when there is an interest in understanding the transient degradation process, the obtained solution to the Fokker-Planck equation can be used for this purpose. As to the EVD concept, it attributes the degradation process to the accumulation of damages caused by a train of repetitive high-level loadings, while loadings of levels that are considerably lower than their extreme values do not contribute

  3. Prediction of helicopter rotor discrete frequency noise: A computer program incorporating realistic blade motions and advanced acoustic formulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brentner, K. S.

    1986-01-01

    A computer program has been developed at the Langley Research Center to predict the discrete frequency noise of conventional and advanced helicopter rotors. The program, called WOPWOP, uses the most advanced subsonic formulation of Farassat that is less sensitive to errors and is valid for nearly all helicopter rotor geometries and flight conditions. A brief derivation of the acoustic formulation is presented along with a discussion of the numerical implementation of the formulation. The computer program uses realistic helicopter blade motion and aerodynamic loadings, input by the user, for noise calculation in the time domain. A detailed definition of all the input variables, default values, and output data is included. A comparison with experimental data shows good agreement between prediction and experiment; however, accurate aerodynamic loading is needed.

  4. Predicting Violence Among Forensic-Correctional Populations: The Past 2 Decades of Advancements and Future Endeavors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loza, Wagdy; Dhaliwal, Gurmeet K.

    2005-01-01

    Research on violence prediction during the past 2 decades has evolved appreciably in terms of depicting determinants of violence and developing psychometrically sound actuarial measures to predict the probability of future violent behavior. This article provides a brief synopsis of information on predicting violence gained in the past 2 decades,…

  5. Characterizing the Hypermutated Subtype of Advanced Prostate Cancer as a Predictive Biomarker for Precision Medicine

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-10-01

    hypermutated advanced prostate cancers. Using a targeted deep sequencing assay that includes intronic and flanking regions we discovered DNA mismatch...subtype of advanced prostate cancer, most likely mutations in DNA mismatch repair genes. To test this hypothesis we performed targeted deep ...have adapted the mSINGS method to both the BROCA and UW-OncoPlex genomic deep sequencing platforms to accurately detect both phenotypic MSI and

  6. Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry; Schifer, Nicholas; Briggs, Maxwell

    2011-01-01

    Past methods of predicting net heat input needed to be validated. Validation effort pursued with several paths including improving model inputs, using test hardware to provide validation data, and validating high fidelity models. Validation test hardware provided direct measurement of net heat input for comparison to predicted values. Predicted value of net heat input was 1.7 percent less than measured value and initial calculations of measurement uncertainty were 2.1 percent (under review). Lessons learned during validation effort were incorporated into convertor modeling approach which improved predictions of convertor efficiency.

  7. Advanced Methods for Determining Prediction Uncertainty in Model-Based Prognostics with Application to Planetary Rovers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Sankararaman, Shankar

    2013-01-01

    Prognostics is centered on predicting the time of and time until adverse events in components, subsystems, and systems. It typically involves both a state estimation phase, in which the current health state of a system is identified, and a prediction phase, in which the state is projected forward in time. Since prognostics is mainly a prediction problem, prognostic approaches cannot avoid uncertainty, which arises due to several sources. Prognostics algorithms must both characterize this uncertainty and incorporate it into the predictions so that informed decisions can be made about the system. In this paper, we describe three methods to solve these problems, including Monte Carlo-, unscented transform-, and first-order reliability-based methods. Using a planetary rover as a case study, we demonstrate and compare the different methods in simulation for battery end-of-discharge prediction.

  8. THERMAL PREDICTIONS OF NEW COMPOSITE MATERIAL DURING INPILE TESTING

    SciTech Connect

    Donna Post Guillen; W. David Swank; Heng Ban; Kurt Harris; Adam Zabriskie

    2011-09-01

    An inpile experiment is currently underway wherein specimens comprised of a newly developed material are being irradiated at Idaho National Laboratory's Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) in conjunction with Utah State University under the auspices of the ATR National Scientific User Facility. This paper provides the thermophysical properties of this new material measured prior to irradiation. After the irradiation campaign is complete, the thermophysical properties of the specimens will be measured and compared to the preirradiation values. A finite-element model was constructed to predict bounding specimen temperatures during irradiation. Results from the thermal hydraulic modeling, including the steady-state temperatures of the specimens within sealed capsules, are presented. After the irradiation campaign is completed, best-estimate thermal predictions will be performed for the individual specimens using the actual as-run irradiation power levels.

  9. Novel Pretreatment Scoring Incorporating C-reactive Protein to Predict Overall Survival in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Sorafenib Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Nakanishi, Hiroyuki; Kurosaki, Masayuki; Tsuchiya, Kaoru; Yasui, Yutaka; Higuchi, Mayu; Yoshida, Tsubasa; Komiyama, Yasuyuki; Takaura, Kenta; Hayashi, Tsuguru; Kuwabara, Konomi; Nakakuki, Natsuko; Takada, Hitomi; Ueda, Masako; Tamaki, Nobuharu; Suzuki, Shoko; Itakura, Jun; Takahashi, Yuka; Izumi, Namiki

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study aimed to build a prediction score of prognosis for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sorafenib treatment. Methods A total of 165 patients with advanced HCC who were treated with sorafenib were analyzed. Readily available baseline factors were used to establish a scoring system for the prediction of survival. Results The median survival time (MST) was 14.2 months. The independent prognostic factors were C-reactive protein (CRP) <1.0 mg/dL [hazard ratio (HR) =0.51], albumin >3.5 g/dL (HR =0.55), alpha-fetoprotein <200 ng/mL (HR =0.45), and a lack of major vascular invasion (HR =0.39). Each of these factors had a score of 1, and after classifying the patients into five groups, the total scores ranged from 0 to 4. Higher scores were linked to significantly longer survival (p<0.0001). Twenty-nine patients (17.6%) with a score of 4 had a MST as long as 36.5 months, whereas MST was as short as 2.4 and 3.7 months for seven (4.2%) and 22 (13.3%) patients with scores of 0 and 1, respectively. Conclusions A novel prognostic scoring system, which includes the CRP level, has the ability to stratify the prognosis of patients with advanced stage HCC after treatment with sorafenib. PMID:27781198

  10. Predicting SAT Performance from Advanced Course Content and Timing of Matriculation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patterson, Jonathan Sparks

    2012-01-01

    As record numbers of students are applying to selective colleges and universities, students are attempting to set themselves apart from their peers by taking rigorous advanced courses in high school. The race for improving a student's academic record has resulted in more and more students taking these courses earlier and earlier in their high…

  11. Advances and Challenges In Uncertainty Quantification with Application to Climate Prediction, ICF design and Science Stockpile Stewardship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, R.; Woodward, C. S.; Johannesson, G.; Domyancic, D.; Covey, C. C.; Lucas, D. D.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a critical field within 21st century simulation science that resides at the very center of the web of emerging predictive capabilities. The science of UQ holds the promise of giving much greater meaning to the results of complex large-scale simulations, allowing for quantifying and bounding uncertainties. This powerful capability will yield new insights into scientific predictions (e.g. Climate) of great impact on both national and international arenas, allow informed decisions on the design of critical experiments (e.g. ICF capsule design, MFE, NE) in many scientific fields, and assign confidence bounds to scientifically predictable outcomes (e.g. nuclear weapons design). In this talk I will discuss a major new strategic initiative (SI) we have developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to advance the science of Uncertainty Quantification at LLNL focusing in particular on (a) the research and development of new algorithms and methodologies of UQ as applied to multi-physics multi-scale codes, (b) incorporation of these advancements into a global UQ Pipeline (i.e. a computational superstructure) that will simplify user access to sophisticated tools for UQ studies as well as act as a self-guided, self-adapting UQ engine for UQ studies on extreme computing platforms and (c) use laboratory applications as a test bed for new algorithms and methodologies. The initial SI focus has been on applications for the quantification of uncertainty associated with Climate prediction, but the validated UQ methodologies we have developed are now being fed back into Science Based Stockpile Stewardship (SSS) and ICF UQ efforts. To make advancements in several of these UQ grand challenges, I will focus in talk on the following three research areas in our Strategic Initiative: Error Estimation in multi-physics and multi-scale codes ; Tackling the "Curse of High Dimensionality"; and development of an advanced UQ Computational Pipeline to enable

  12. Ideal MHD Stability Prediction and Required Power for EAST Advanced Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Junjie; Li, Guoqiang; Qian, Jinping; Liu, Zixi

    2012-11-01

    The Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) is the first fully superconducting tokamak with a D-shaped cross-sectional plasma presently in operation. The ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and required power for the EAST advanced tokamak (AT) scenario with negative central shear and double transport barrier (DTB) are investigated. With the equilibrium code TOQ and stability code GATO, the ideal MHD stability is analyzed. It is shown that a moderate ratio of edge transport barriers' (ETB) height to internal transport barriers' (ITBs) height is beneficial to ideal MHD stability. The normalized beta βN limit is about 2.20 (without wall) and 3.70 (with ideal wall). With the scaling law of energy confinement time, the required heating power for EAST AT scenario is calculated. The total heating power Pt increases as the toroidal magnetic field BT or the normalized beta βN is increased.

  13. Application of Advanced Methods to Predict Grid to Rod Fretting in PWRs

    SciTech Connect

    Karoutas, Zeses; Roger, Lu Y.; Yan, J.; Krammen, M.A.; Sham, Sam

    2012-01-01

    Advanced modeling and simulation methods are being developed as part of the US Department of Energy sponsored Nuclear Energy Modeling and Simulation Hub called CASL (Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs). The key participants of the CASL team include Oak Ridge National Laboratory (lead), Idaho National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, North Carolina State University, University of Michigan, Electric Power Research Institute, Tennessee Valley Authority and Westinghouse Electric Corporation. One of the key objectives of the CASL program is to develop multi-physics methods and tools which evaluate neutronic, thermal-hydraulic, structural mechanics and nuclear fuel rod performance in rod bundles to support power uprates, increased burnup/cycle length and life extension for US nuclear plants.

  14. Advancing viral RNA structure prediction: measuring the thermodynamics of pyrimidine-rich internal loops.

    PubMed

    Phan, Andy; Mailey, Katherine; Sakai, Jessica; Gu, Xiaobo; Schroeder, Susan J

    2017-02-17

    Accurate thermodynamic parameters improve RNA structure predictions and thus accelerate understanding of RNA function and the identification of RNA drug binding sites. Many viral RNA structures, such as internal ribosome entry sites, have internal loops and bulges that are potential drug target sites. Current models used to predict internal loops are biased towards small, symmetric purine loops, and thus poorly predict asymmetric, pyrimidine-rich loops with more than 6 nucleotides that occur frequently in viral RNA. This paper presents new thermodynamic data for 40 pyrimidine loops, many of which can form UU or protonated CC base pairs. Protonated cytosine and uracil base pairs stabilize asymmetric internal loops. Accurate prediction rules are presented that account for all thermodynamic measurements of RNA asymmetric internal loops. New loop initiation terms for loops with more than 6 nucleotides are presented that do not follow previous assumptions that increasing asymmetry destabilizes loops. Since the last 2004 update, 126 new loops with asymmetry or sizes greater than 2x2 have been measured (Mathews 2004). These new measurements significantly deepen and diversify the thermodynamic database for RNA. These results will help better predict internal loops that are larger, pyrimidine-rich, and occur within viral structures such as internal ribosome entry sites.

  15. Advanced validation of CFD-FDTD combined method using highly applicable solver for reentry blackout prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Yusuke

    2016-01-01

    An analysis model of plasma flow and electromagnetic waves around a reentry vehicle for radio frequency blackout prediction during aerodynamic heating was developed in this study. The model was validated based on experimental results from the radio attenuation measurement program. The plasma flow properties, such as electron number density, in the shock layer and wake region were obtained using a newly developed unstructured grid solver that incorporated real gas effect models and could treat thermochemically non-equilibrium flow. To predict the electromagnetic waves in plasma, a frequency-dependent finite-difference time-domain method was used. Moreover, the complicated behaviour of electromagnetic waves in the plasma layer during atmospheric reentry was clarified at several altitudes. The prediction performance of the combined model was evaluated with profiles and peak values of the electron number density in the plasma layer. In addition, to validate the models, the signal losses measured during communication with the reentry vehicle were directly compared with the predicted results. Based on the study, it was suggested that the present analysis model accurately predicts the radio frequency blackout and plasma attenuation of electromagnetic waves in plasma in communication.

  16. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E.

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  17. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 2, Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    This volume presents the following appendices: ceramic test specimen drawings and schematics, mixed-mode and biaxial stress fracture of structural ceramics for advanced vehicular heat engines (U. Utah), mode I/mode II fracture toughness and tension/torsion fracture strength of NT154 Si nitride (Brown U.), summary of strength test results and fractography, fractography photographs, derivations of statistical models, Weibull strength plots for fast fracture test specimens, and size functions.

  18. OSMOSE an experimental program for improving neutronic predictions of advanced nuclear fuels.

    SciTech Connect

    Klann, R. T.; Aliberti, G.; Zhong, Z.; Graczyk, D.; Loussi, A.; Nuclear Engineering Division; Commissariat a l Energie Atomique

    2007-10-18

    This report describes the technical results of tasks and activities conducted in FY07 to support the DOE-CEA collaboration on the OSMOSE program. The activities are divided into five high-level tasks: reactor modeling and pre-experiment analysis, sample fabrication and analysis, reactor experiments, data treatment and analysis, and assessment for relevance to high priority advanced reactor programs (such as GNEP and Gen-IV).

  19. [Clinical application value of prognostic nutritional index for predicting survival in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer].

    PubMed

    Xu, W J; Kang, Y M; Zhou, L; Chen, F F; Song, Y H; Zhang, C Q

    2017-02-23

    Objective: To explore the clinical application value of prognostic nutritional index(PNI) for predicting overall survival(OS) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods: 123 patients with histologically confirmed non-small cell lung cancer were enrolled in this study, and their clinical and laboratory data were reviewed. The PNI was calculated as 10×serum albumin value+ 5×total lymphocyte countin peripheral blood.Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the potential prognostic factors for advanced NSCLC. Results: PNI of the 123 NSCLC patients was 46.24±6.56. PNI was significantly associated with age, weight loss and pleural effusion (P<0.05). However, it showed no relationship with sex, smoking, hemoptysis, chest pain, dyspnea, histological type, clinical stage, and administration of chemotherapy (P>0.05). The median OS of the 123 patients was 19.5 months. The median OS in the higher PNI group (PNI≥46.24) and lower PNI group(PNI<46.24) were 25.2 months and 16.4 months, respectively.The 1-year survival rates were 80.6% and 63.9%, and 2-year survival rates were 54.8% and 19.6%, respectively (P<0.01). Univariate analysis showed that PNI, age, dyspnea, and weight loss were related to the OS of the advanced NSCLC patients (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis identified PNI as an independent prognostic factor for OS of advanced NSCLC (P<0.001). Conclusion: PNI can be easily calculated, and may be used as a relatively new prognostic indicator for advanced NSCLC in clinical practice.

  20. Strengthening sociometric prediction: scientific advances in the assessment of children's peer relations.

    PubMed

    DeRosier, Melissa E; Thomas, James M

    2003-01-01

    This study assessed the strength of sociometric classification in the prediction of concurrent sociobehavioral adjustment. Differential adjustment for subgroups of unclassified children were also examined. Participants were 881 fifth graders (ages 9 to 12). Classification strength (CS) and unclassified subgroups were determined through newly developed algorithms. CS added significantly to the prediction of all areas of adjustment. For example, highly rejected children were at extreme risk for victimization whereas highly controversial children were most likely to be bullies and relationally aggressive. Unclassified subgroups were found to exhibit adjustment problems mirroring those of their extreme status group counterparts. Findings support that increasing the sensitivity of sociometric measurement results in both greater predictive strength and enhanced understanding of underlying social processes.

  1. Predicted and measured boundary layer refraction for advanced turboprop propeller noise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dittmar, James H.; Krejsa, Eugene A.

    1990-01-01

    Currently, boundary layer refraction presents a limitation to the measurement of forward arc propeller noise measured on an acoustic plate in the NASA Lewis 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel. The use of a validated boundary layer refraction model to adjust the data could remove this limitation. An existing boundary layer refraction model is used to predict the refraction for cases where boundary layer refraction was measured. In general, the model exhibits the same qualitative behavior as the measured refraction. However, the prediction method does not show quantitative agreement with the data. In general, it overpredicts the amount of refraction for the far forward angles at axial Mach number of 0.85 and 0.80 and underpredicts the refraction at axial Mach numbers of 0.75 and 0.70. A more complete propeller source description is suggested as a way to improve the prediction method.

  2. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    1992-01-01

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  3. Machine learning and statistical methods for the prediction of maximal oxygen uptake: recent advances

    PubMed Central

    Abut, Fatih; Akay, Mehmet Fatih

    2015-01-01

    Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) indicates how many milliliters of oxygen the body can consume in a state of intense exercise per minute. VO2max plays an important role in both sport and medical sciences for different purposes, such as indicating the endurance capacity of athletes or serving as a metric in estimating the disease risk of a person. In general, the direct measurement of VO2max provides the most accurate assessment of aerobic power. However, despite a high level of accuracy, practical limitations associated with the direct measurement of VO2max, such as the requirement of expensive and sophisticated laboratory equipment or trained staff, have led to the development of various regression models for predicting VO2max. Consequently, a lot of studies have been conducted in the last years to predict VO2max of various target audiences, ranging from soccer athletes, nonexpert swimmers, cross-country skiers to healthy-fit adults, teenagers, and children. Numerous prediction models have been developed using different sets of predictor variables and a variety of machine learning and statistical methods, including support vector machine, multilayer perceptron, general regression neural network, and multiple linear regression. The purpose of this study is to give a detailed overview about the data-driven modeling studies for the prediction of VO2max conducted in recent years and to compare the performance of various VO2max prediction models reported in related literature in terms of two well-known metrics, namely, multiple correlation coefficient (R) and standard error of estimate. The survey results reveal that with respect to regression methods used to develop prediction models, support vector machine, in general, shows better performance than other methods, whereas multiple linear regression exhibits the worst performance. PMID:26346869

  4. A hybrid approach to advancing quantitative prediction of tissue distribution of basic drugs in human

    SciTech Connect

    Poulin, Patrick; Ekins, Sean; Theil, Frank-Peter

    2011-01-15

    A general toxicity of basic drugs is related to phospholipidosis in tissues. Therefore, it is essential to predict the tissue distribution of basic drugs to facilitate an initial estimate of that toxicity. The objective of the present study was to further assess the original prediction method that consisted of using the binding to red blood cells measured in vitro for the unbound drug (RBCu) as a surrogate for tissue distribution, by correlating it to unbound tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kpu) of several tissues, and finally to predict volume of distribution at steady-state (V{sub ss}) in humans under in vivo conditions. This correlation method demonstrated inaccurate predictions of V{sub ss} for particular basic drugs that did not follow the original correlation principle. Therefore, the novelty of this study is to provide clarity on the actual hypotheses to identify i) the impact of pharmacological mode of action on the generic correlation of RBCu-Kpu, ii) additional mechanisms of tissue distribution for the outlier drugs, iii) molecular features and properties that differentiate compounds as outliers in the original correlation analysis in order to facilitate its applicability domain alongside the properties already used so far, and finally iv) to present a novel and refined correlation method that is superior to what has been previously published for the prediction of human V{sub ss} of basic drugs. Applying a refined correlation method after identifying outliers would facilitate the prediction of more accurate distribution parameters as key inputs used in physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) and phospholipidosis models.

  5. Machine learning and statistical methods for the prediction of maximal oxygen uptake: recent advances.

    PubMed

    Abut, Fatih; Akay, Mehmet Fatih

    2015-01-01

    Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) indicates how many milliliters of oxygen the body can consume in a state of intense exercise per minute. VO2max plays an important role in both sport and medical sciences for different purposes, such as indicating the endurance capacity of athletes or serving as a metric in estimating the disease risk of a person. In general, the direct measurement of VO2max provides the most accurate assessment of aerobic power. However, despite a high level of accuracy, practical limitations associated with the direct measurement of VO2max, such as the requirement of expensive and sophisticated laboratory equipment or trained staff, have led to the development of various regression models for predicting VO2max. Consequently, a lot of studies have been conducted in the last years to predict VO2max of various target audiences, ranging from soccer athletes, nonexpert swimmers, cross-country skiers to healthy-fit adults, teenagers, and children. Numerous prediction models have been developed using different sets of predictor variables and a variety of machine learning and statistical methods, including support vector machine, multilayer perceptron, general regression neural network, and multiple linear regression. The purpose of this study is to give a detailed overview about the data-driven modeling studies for the prediction of VO2max conducted in recent years and to compare the performance of various VO2max prediction models reported in related literature in terms of two well-known metrics, namely, multiple correlation coefficient (R) and standard error of estimate. The survey results reveal that with respect to regression methods used to develop prediction models, support vector machine, in general, shows better performance than other methods, whereas multiple linear regression exhibits the worst performance.

  6. Predicting Cost/Reliability/Maintainability of Advanced General Aviation Avionics Equipment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, M. R.; Kamins, M.; Mooz, W. E.

    1978-01-01

    A methodology is provided for assisting NASA in estimating the cost, reliability, and maintenance (CRM) requirements for general avionics equipment operating in the 1980's. Practical problems of predicting these factors are examined. The usefulness and short comings of different approaches for modeling coast and reliability estimates are discussed together with special problems caused by the lack of historical data on the cost of maintaining general aviation avionics. Suggestions are offered on how NASA might proceed in assessing cost reliability CRM implications in the absence of reliable generalized predictive models.

  7. Advanced Models and Controls for Prediction and Extension of Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-02-01

    Predictive models of capacity and power fade must consider a multiplicity of degradation modes experienced by Li-ion batteries in the automotive environment. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must presently be absorbed by overdesign and excess warranty costs. To reduce these costs and extend life, degradation models are under development that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. The lifetime models provide engineering feedback for cell, pack and system designs and are being incorporated into real-time control strategies.

  8. LiverTox: Advanced QSAR and Toxicogeomic Software for Hepatotoxicity Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, P-Y.; Yuracko, K.

    2011-02-25

    YAHSGS LLC and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) established a CRADA in an attempt to develop a predictive system using a pre-existing ORNL computational neural network and wavelets format. This was in the interest of addressing national needs for toxicity prediction system to help overcome the significant drain of resources (money and time) being directed toward developing chemical agents for commerce. The research project has been supported through an STTR mechanism and funded by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences beginning Phase I in 2004 (CRADA No. ORNL-04-0688) and extending Phase II through 2007 (ORNL NFE-06-00020). To attempt the research objectives and aims outlined under this CRADA, state-of-the-art computational neural network and wavelet methods were used in an effort to design a predictive toxicity system that used two independent areas on which to base the system’s predictions. These two areas were quantitative structure-activity relationships and gene-expression data obtained from microarrays. A third area, using the new Massively Parallel Signature Sequencing (MPSS) technology to assess gene expression, also was attempted but had to be dropped because the company holding the rights to this promising MPSS technology went out of business. A research-scale predictive toxicity database system called Multi-Intelligent System for Toxicogenomic Applications (MISTA) was developed and its feasibility for use as a predictor of toxicological activity was tested. The fundamental focus of the CRADA was an attempt and effort to operate the MISTA database using the ORNL neural network. This effort indicated the potential that such a fully developed system might be used to assist in predicting such biological endpoints as hepatotoxcity and neurotoxicity. The MISTA/LiverTox approach if eventually fully developed might also be useful for automatic processing of microarray data to predict modes of action. A technical paper describing the

  9. Multiaxial deformation and life prediction model and experimental data for advanced silicon nitride ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Ding, J.L.; Liu, K.C.; Brinkman, C.R.

    1993-06-01

    This paper summarizes recent experimental results on creep and creep rupture behavior of a commercial grade of Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} ceramic in the temperature range of 1150 to 1300C obtained at ORNL; and introduces a tentative multiaxial deformation and life prediction model for ceramic materials under general thermomechanical loadings. Issues related to the possible standardization of the data analysis methodology and possible future research needs for high temperature structural ceramics in the area of development of data base and life prediction methodology are also discussed.

  10. Neoadjuvant treatment for advanced esophageal cancer: response assessment before surgery and how to predict response to chemoradiation before starting treatment

    PubMed Central

    Hölscher, Arnulf H.; Schmidt, Matthias; Warnecke-Eberz, Ute

    2015-01-01

    Patients with advanced esophageal cancer (T3-4, N) have a poor prognosis. Chemoradiation or chemotherapy before esophagectomy with adequate lymphadenectomy is the standard treatment for patients with resectable advanced esophageal carcinoma. However, only patients with major histopathologic response (regression to less than 10% of the primary tumor) after preoperative treatment will have a prognostic benefit of preoperative chemoradiation. Using current therapy regimens about 40% to 50% of the patients show major histopathological response. The remaining cohort does not benefit from this neoadjuvant approach but might benefit from earlier surgical resection. Therefore, it is an aim to develop tools for response prediction before starting the treatment and for early response assessment identifying responders. The current review discusses the different imaging techniques and the most recent studies about molecular markers for early response prediction. The results show that [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) has a good sensitivity but the specificity is not robust enough for routine clinical use. Newer positron emission tomography detector technology, the combination of FDG-PET with computed tomography, additional evaluation criteria and standardization of evaluation may improve the predictive value. There exist a great number of retrospective studies using molecular markers for prediction of response. Until now the clinical use is missing. But the results of first prospective studies are promising. A future perspective may be the combination of imaging technics and special molecular markers for individualized therapy. Another aspect is the response assessment after finishing neoadjuvant treatment protocol. The different clinical methods are discussed. The results show that until now no non-invasive method is valid enough to assess complete histopathological response. PMID:26157318

  11. Advances in Toxico-Cheminformatics: Supporting a New Paradigm for Predictive Toxicology

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s National Center for Computational Toxicology is building capabilities to support a new paradigm for toxicity screening and prediction through the harnessing of legacy toxicity data, creation of data linkages, and generation of new high-throughput screening (HTS) data. The D...

  12. Development of advanced stability theory suction prediction techniques for laminar flow control. [on swept wings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Srokowski, A. J.

    1978-01-01

    The problem of obtaining accurate estimates of suction requirements on swept laminar flow control wings was discussed. A fast accurate computer code developed to predict suction requirements by integrating disturbance amplification rates was described. Assumptions and approximations used in the present computer code are examined in light of flow conditions on the swept wing which may limit their validity.

  13. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Recent Program Advancements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.

    2015-12-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). The CVP Program currently supports multiple projects in areas that are aimed at improved representation of physical processes in global models. Some of the topics that are currently funded include: i) Improved Understanding of Intraseasonal Tropical Variability - DYNAMO field campaign and post -field projects, and the new climate model improvement teams focused on MJO processes; ii) Climate Process Teams (CPTs, co-funded with NSF) with projects focused on Cloud macrophysical parameterization and its application to aerosol indirect effects, and Internal-Wave Driven Mixing in Global Ocean Models; iii) Improved Understanding of Tropical Pacific Processes, Biases, and Climatology; iv) Understanding Arctic Sea Ice Mechanism and Predictability;v) AMOC Mechanisms and Decadal Predictability Recent results from CVP-funded projects will be summarized. Additional information can be found at http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP.

  14. Functional imaging using computational fluid dynamics to predict treatment success of mandibular advancement devices in sleep-disordered breathing.

    PubMed

    De Backer, J W; Vanderveken, O M; Vos, W G; Devolder, A; Verhulst, S L; Verbraecken, J A; Parizel, P M; Braem, M J; Van de Heyning, P H; De Backer, W A

    2007-01-01

    Mandibular advancement devices (MADs) have emerged as a popular alternative for the treatment of sleep-disordered breathing. These devices bring the mandibula forward in order to increase upper airway (UA) volume and prevent total UA collapse during sleep. However, the precise mechanism of action appears to be quite complex and is not yet completely understood; this might explain interindividual variation in treatment success. We examined whether an UA model, that combines imaging techniques and computational fluid dynamics (CFD), allows for a prediction of the treatment outcome with MADs. Ten patients that were treated with a custom-made mandibular advancement device (MAD), underwent split-night polysomnography. The morning after the sleep study, a low radiation dose CT scan was scheduled with and without the MAD. The CT examinations allowed for a comparison between the change in UA volume and the anatomical characteristics through the conversion to three-dimensional computer models. Furthermore, the change in UA resistance could be calculated through flow simulations with CFD. Boundary conditions for the model such as mass flow rate and pressure distributions were obtained during the split-night polysomnography. Therefore, the flow modeling was based on a patient specific geometry and patient specific boundary conditions. The results indicated that a decrease in UA resistance and an increase in UA volume correlate with both a clinical and an objective improvement. The results of this pilot study suggest that the outcome of MAD treatment can be predicted using the described UA model.

  15. Application of Multivariable Model Predictive Advanced Control for a 2×310T/H CFB Boiler Unit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weijie, Zhao; Zongllao, Dai; Rong, Gou; Wengan, Gong

    When a CFB boiler is in automatic control, there are strong interactions between various process variables and inverse response characteristics of bed temperature control target. Conventional Pill control strategy cannot deliver satisfactory control demand. Kalman wave filter technology is used to establish a non-linear combustion model, based on the CFB combustion characteristics of bed fuel inventory, heating values, bed lime inventory and consumption. CFB advanced combustion control utilizes multivariable model predictive control technology to optimize primary and secondary air flow, bed temperature, air flow, fuel flow and heat flux. In addition to providing advanced combustion control to 2×310t/h CFB+1×100MW extraction condensing turbine generator unit, the control also provides load allocation optimization and advanced control for main steam pressure, combustion and temperature. After the successful implementation, under 10% load change, main steam pressure varied less than ±0.07MPa, temperature less than ±1°C, bed temperature less than ±4°C, and air flow (O2) less than ±0.4%.

  16. MGMT expression levels predict disease stabilisation, progression-free and overall survival in patients with advanced melanomas treated with DTIC.

    PubMed

    Busch, Christian; Geisler, Jürgen; Lillehaug, Johan R; Lønning, Per Eystein

    2010-07-01

    Metastatic melanoma responds poorly to systemic treatment. We report the results of a prospective single institution study evaluating O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) status as a potential predictive and/or prognostic marker among patients treated with dacarbazine (DTIC) 800-1000 mg/m(2) monotherapy administered as a 3-weekly schedule for advanced malignant melanomas. The study was approved by the Regional Ethical Committee. Surgical biopsies from metastatic or loco-regional deposits obtained prior to DTIC treatment were snap-frozen immediately upon removal and stored in liquid nitrogen up to processing. Median time from enrolment to end of follow-up was 67 months. MGMT expression levels evaluated by qRT-PCR correlated significantly to DTIC benefit (CR/PR/SD; p=0.005), time to progression (TTP) (p=0.005) and overall survival (OS) (p=0.003). MGMT expression also correlated to Breslow thickness in the primary tumour (p=0.014). While MGMT promoter hypermethylation correlated to MGMT expression, MGMT promoter hypermethylation did not correlate to treatment benefit, TTP or OS, suggesting that other factors may be critical in determining MGMT expression levels in melanomas. In a Cox proportional regression analysis, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, p<0.001), MGMT expression (p=0.022) and p16(INK4a) expression (p=0.037) independently predicted OS, while TTP correlated to DTIC benefit after 6 weeks only (p=0.001). Our data reveal MGMT expression levels to be associated with disease stabilisation and prognosis in patients receiving DTIC monotherapy for advanced melanoma. The role of MGMT expression as a predictor to DTIC sensitivity versus a general prognostic factor in advanced melanomas warrants further evaluation.

  17. Advances in CFD Prediction of Shock Wave Turbulent Boundary Layer Interactions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-01

    on the Baldwin and Lomax [151] algebraic turbulence model. Fig. 58 from Panaras [150] includes all the critical elements of the swept shock/turbulent...pitot pressure, yaw angle and surface pressure are predictable with reasonable accuracy using algebraic or two-equation turbulence models, however the...calculations they tested algebraic turbulence models and the k−² model, integrated to the wall or employing the wall-function technique. They have found

  18. Advanced Control Filtering and Prediction for Phased Arrays in Directed Energy Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-07-31

    SIMULINK model for prediction and feedback control of a phase ramp. Mirror represented by integrator with sample time tsim. The model shown has a...and simulating the closed-loop system in SIMULINK . Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 3 4.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1...although this measurement probably is not necessary. 4.2 Simulation Model There are three differences between the current SIMULINK model and the

  19. Advanced Durability Analysis. Volume 2. Analytical Predictions, Test Results and Analytical Correlations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-02-27

    used for the back-extrapolation. Recommendations for durability analysis are as follows: (1) define the equivalent initial flaw size distribution ...WAFXHR4 Data Set) for Cumulative Distribution of Service Time to Reach Crack Size x1 -0.59" Based on DCGA- DCGA. xiv List of Figures (Continued) Fiaur. ag ...be used to make predictions for the probability bf crack exceedance at any service time, 7’ , and the cumulative distribution of service time to

  20. Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science.

    PubMed

    Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

    2016-01-01

    One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets.

  1. Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science

    PubMed Central

    Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

    2016-01-01

    One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets. PMID:27532883

  2. Myopodin methylation is a prognostic biomarker and predicts antiangiogenic response in advanced kidney cancer.

    PubMed

    Pompas-Veganzones, N; Sandonis, V; Perez-Lanzac, Alberto; Beltran, M; Beardo, P; Juárez, A; Vazquez, F; Cozar, J M; Alvarez-Ossorio, J L; Sanchez-Carbayo, Marta

    2016-10-01

    Myopodin is a cytoskeleton protein that shuttles to the nucleus depending on the cellular differentiation and stress. It has shown tumor suppressor functions. Myopodin methylation status was useful for staging bladder and colon tumors and predicting clinical outcome. To our knowledge, myopodin has not been tested in kidney cancer to date. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether myopodin methylation status could be clinically useful in renal cancer (1) as a prognostic biomarker and 2) as a predictive factor of response to antiangiogenic therapy in patients with metastatic disease. Methylation-specific polymerase chain reactions (MS-PCR) were used to evaluate myopodin methylation in 88 kidney tumors. These belonged to patients with localized disease and no evidence of disease during follow-up (n = 25) (group 1), and 63 patients under antiangiogenic therapy (sunitinib, sorafenib, pazopanib, and temsirolimus), from which group 2 had non-metastatic disease at diagnosis (n = 32), and group 3 showed metastatic disease at diagnosis (n = 31). Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were utilized to assess outcome and response to antiangiogenic agents taking progression, disease-specific survival, and overall survival as clinical endpoints. Myopodin was methylated in 50 out of the 88 kidney tumors (56.8 %). Among the 88 cases analyzed, 10 of them recurred (11.4 %), 51 progressed (57.9 %), and 40 died of disease (45.4 %). Myopodin methylation status correlated to MSKCC Risk score (p = 0.050) and the presence of distant metastasis (p = 0.039). Taking all patients, an unmethylated myopodin identified patients with shorter progression-free survival, disease-specific survival, and overall survival. Using also in univariate and multivariate models, an unmethylated myopodin predicted response to antiangiogenic therapy (groups 2 and 3) using progression-free survival, disease-specific, and overall survival as clinical endpoints. Myopodin was revealed

  3. Predicting early brain metastases based on clinicopathological factors and gene expression analysis in advanced HER2-positive breast cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Duchnowska, Renata; Jassem, Jacek; Goswami, Chirayu Pankaj; Dundar, Murat; Gökmen-Polar, Yesim; Li, Lang; Woditschka, Stephan; Biernat, Wojciech; Sosińska-Mielcarek, Katarzyna; Czartoryska-Arłukowicz, Bogumiła; Radecka, Barbara; Tomasevic, Zorica; Stępniak, Piotr; Wojdan, Konrad; Sledge, George W; Steeg, Patricia S; Badve, Sunil

    2015-03-01

    The overexpression or amplification of the human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 gene (HER2/neu) is associated with high risk of brain metastasis (BM). The identification of patients at highest immediate risk of BM could optimize screening and facilitate interventional trials. We performed gene expression analysis using complementary deoxyribonucleic acid-mediated annealing, selection, extension and ligation and real-time quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) in primary tumor samples from two independent cohorts of advanced HER2 positive breast cancer patients. Additionally, we analyzed predictive relevance of clinicopathological factors in this series. Study group included discovery Cohort A (84 patients) and validation Cohort B (75 patients). The only independent variables associated with the development of early BM in both cohorts were the visceral location of first distant relapse [Cohort A: hazard ratio (HR) 7.4, 95 % CI 2.4-22.3; p < 0.001; Cohort B: HR 6.1, 95 % CI 1.5-25.6; p = 0.01] and the lack of trastuzumab administration in the metastatic setting (Cohort A: HR 5.0, 95 % CI 1.4-10.0; p = 0.009; Cohort B: HR 10.0, 95 % CI 2.0-100.0; p = 0.008). A profile including 13 genes was associated with early (≤36 months) symptomatic BM in the discovery cohort. This was refined by qRT-PCR to a 3-gene classifier (RAD51, HDGF, TPR) highly predictive of early BM (HR 5.3, 95 % CI 1.6-16.7; p = 0.005; multivariate analysis). However, predictive value of the classifier was not confirmed in the independent validation Cohort B. The presence of visceral metastases and the lack of trastuzumab administration in the metastatic setting apparently increase the likelihood of early BM in advanced HER2-positive breast cancer.

  4. Tumor size and lymph node status determined by imaging are reliable factors for predicting advanced cervical cancer prognosis.

    PubMed

    Kyung, Min Sun; Kim, Hong Bae; Seoung, Jung Yeob; Choi, In Young; Joo, Young Soo; Lee, Me Yeon; Kang, Jung Bae; Park, Young Han

    2015-05-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the prognostic role of a number of clinical factors in advanced cervical cancer patients. Patients (n=157) with stage IIA-IIB cervical cancer treated at four Hallym Medical Centers in South Korea (Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital; Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital; Chuncheon Sacred Heart Hospital; and Kangdong Sacred Heart Hospital) between 2006 and 2010 were retrospectively enrolled. Univariate analysis identified significant predictive values in the following eight factors: i) Cancer stage (P<0.0001); ii) tumor size (≤4 vs. 4-6 cm, P=0.0147; and ≤4 vs. >6 cm, P<0.0001); iii) serum squamous cell carcinoma antigen level (≤2 vs. >15 ng/ml; P=0.0291); iv) lower third vaginal involvement (P<0.0001); v) hydronephrosis (P=0.0003); vi) bladder/rectum involvement (P=0.0015); vii) pelvic (P=0.0017) or para-aortic (P=0.0019) lymph node (LN) metastasis detected by imaging vs. no metastasis; and viii) pelvic LN metastasis identified by pathological analysis (P=0.0289). Furthermore, multivariate analysis determined that tumor size (≤4 vs. 4-6 cm, P=0.0371; and ≤4 vs. >6 cm, P=0.0024) and pelvic LN metastasis determined by imaging vs. no metastasis (P=0.0499) were independent predictive variables. Therefore, tumor size and pelvic LN metastasis measured by imaging were independent predictive factors for the prognosis of advanced cervical cancer. These factors may provide more clinically significant prognostic information compared with the currently used International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics staging system.

  5. Prediction of Unsteady Blade Surface Pressures on an Advanced Propeller at an Angle of Attack

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1989-01-01

    The numerical solution of the unsteady, three-dimensional, Euler equations is considered in order to obtain the blade surface pressures of an advanced propeller at an angle of attack. The specific configuration considered is the SR7L propeller at cruise conditions with a 4.6 deg inflow angle corresponding to the plus 2 deg nacelle tilt of the Propeller Test Assessment (PTA) flight test condition. The results indicate nearly sinusoidal response of the blade loading, with angle of attack. For the first time, detailed variations of the chordwise loading as a function of azimuthal angle are presented. It is observed that the blade is lightly loaded for part of the revolution and shocks appear from hub to about 80 percent radial station for the highly loaded portion of the revolution.

  6. Prediction of unsteady blade surface pressures on an advanced propeller at an angle of attack

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1989-01-01

    The paper considers the numerical solution of the unsteady, three-dimensional, Euler equations to obtain the blade surface pressures of an advanced propeller at an angle of attack. The specific configuration considered is the SR7L propeller at cruise conditions with a 4.6 deg inflow angle corresponding to the +2 deg nacelle tilt of the Propeller Test Assessment (PTA) flight test condition. The results indicate nearly sinusoidal response of the blade loading, with angle of attack. For the first time, detailed variations of the chordwise loading as a function of azimuthal angle are presented. It is observed that the blade is lightly loaded for part of the revolution and shocks appear from hub to about 80 percent radial station for the highly loaded portion of the revolution.

  7. Performance Prediction for a Hockey-Puck Silicon Crystal Monochromator at the Advanced Photon Source

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zunping; Rosenbaum, Gerd; Navrotski, Gary

    2014-03-01

    One of the Key Performance Parameters of the upgrade of the Advanced Photon Source (APS) is the increase of the storage ring current from 100 to 150 mA. In order to anticipate the impact of this increased heat load on the X-ray optics of the beamlines, the APS has implemented a systematic review, by means of finite element analysis and computational fluid dynamics, of the thermal performance of the different types of monochromators installed at the highest-heat-load insertion device beamlines. We present here simulations of the performance of a directly liquid nitrogen-cooled silicon crystal, the hockey-puck design. Calculations of the temperature and slope error at multiple ring currents under multiple operational conditions, including the influence of power, cooling, and diffraction surface thickness are included.

  8. UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL PREDICTIONS-PLAUSIBLE OUTCOMES FROM ESTIMATES OF INPUT RANGES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Models are commonly used to predict the future extent of contamination given estimates of hydraulic conductivity, porosity, hydraulic gradient, biodegradation rate, and other parameters. Often best estimates or averages of these are used as inputs to models, which then transform...

  9. CEP55 overexpression predicts poor prognosis in patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Wenpeng; Wang, Zhou; Jia, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Development of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) involves alterations in multiple genes with corresponding proteins. Recent studies have demonstrated that centrosomal protein 55 (CEP55) shares certain features with oncogenes, and CEP55 overexpression is associated with the development and progression of malignant tumors. The present study aimed to analyze, for the first time, whether CEP55 expression is related to clinicopothalogic features in the esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), as well as patient survival. A total of 110 patients with mid-thoracic ESCC who suffered from Ivor-Lewis were enrolled. The CEP55 expression profile of these patients in tumour tissues and corresponding healthy esophageal mucosa (CHEM) was detected by immunohistochemistry and semi-quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction analyses. Correlations between CEP55 expression and clinicopathological factors were analyzed using χ2 test. The log-rank test was employed to calculate survival rate. A Cox regression multivariate analysis was performed to determine independent prognostic factors. The results demonstrated that CEP55 expression in ESCC was significantly higher than that of CHEM (P<0.001). Overexpression of CEP55 was significantly associated with differentiation degree (P=0.022), T stage (P=0.019), lymph node metastasis (P=0.033), clinicopathological staging (P=0.002) and tumor recurrence (P=0.021) in locally advanced ESCC patients. In addition, CEP55 overexpression was significantly associated with reduced overall survival of patients after surgery (P=0.012). The 5-year survival rate of patients without CEP55 overexpression was significantly higher than that of patients with CEP55 overexpression (P=0.012). Therefore, these findings suggest that CEP55 overexpression correlates with poor prognosis in locally advanced ESCC patients. PMID:28123547

  10. An advanced system model for the prediction of the clinical task performance of radiographic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Töpfer, Karin; Keelan, Brian W.; Sugiro, Francisca

    2007-03-01

    A flexible software tool was developed that combines predictive models for detector noise and blur with image simulation and an improved human observer model to predict the clinical task performance of existing and future radiographic systems. The model starts with high-fidelity images from a database and mathematical models of common disease features, which may be added to the images at desired contrast levels. These images are processed through the entire imaging chain including capture, the detector, image processing, and hardcopy or softcopy display. The simulated images and the viewing conditions are passed to a human observer model, which calculates the detectability index d' of the signal (disease or target feature). The visual model incorporates a channelized Hotelling observer with a luminance-dependent contrast sensitivity function and two types of internal visual system noise (intrinsic and image background-induced). It was optimized based on three independent human observer studies of target detection, and is able to predict d' over a wide range of viewing conditions, background complexities, and target spatial frequency content. A more intuitive metric of system performance, Task-Specific Detective Efficiency (TSDE), is defined to indicate how much detector improvements would translate to better radiologist performance. The TSDE is calculated as the squared ratio of d' for a system with the actual detector and a hypothetical system containing an ideal detector. A low TSDE, e.g., 5% for the detection of 0.1 mm microcalcifications in typical mammography systems, indicates that improvements in the detector characteristics are likely to translate to better detection performance. The TSDE of lung nodule detection is as high as 75% even with the detective quantum efficiency (DQE) of the detector not exceeding 24%. Applications of the model to system optimizations for flat-panel detectors, in mammography and dual energy digital radiography, are discussed.

  11. Advanced Train and Traffic Control Based on Prediction of Train Movement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiraguri, Shigeto; Hirao, Yuji; Watanabe, Ikuo; Tomii, Norio; Hase, Shinichi

    Trains are often forced to decelerate or stop between stations on commuter lines due to the delay of the preceding train. If a train stops between stations, both the travel time and the interval between trains will increase. This situation has an adverse effect on energy consumption. To solve this problem, we propose a new train control method based on the prediction of train movement and data communications between railway sub-systems. Computer simulations are carried out to verify the effect of the proposed method. As a result, it has been proved that the new method reduces the train stopping time between stations and the electric energy consumption at substations.

  12. Advancing Ensemble Streamflow Prediction with Stochastic Meteorological Forcings for Hydrologic Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caraway, N.; Wood, A. W.; Rajagopalan, B.; Zagona, E. A.; Daugherty, L.

    2012-12-01

    River Forecast Centers of National Weather Service (NWS) produce seasonal streamflow forecasts via a method called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). NWS ESP forces the temperature index Snow17 and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SAC-SMA) models with historical weather sequences for the forecasting period, starting from models' current watershed initial conditions, to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. There are two major drawbacks of this method: (i) the ensembles are limited to the length of historical, limiting ensemble variability and (ii) incorporating seasonal climate forecasts (e.g., El Nino Southern Oscillation) relies on adjustment or weighting of ESP streamflow sequences. These drawbacks motivate the research presented here, which has two components: (i) a multi-site stochastic weather generator and (ii) generation of ensemble weather forecast inputs to the NWS model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. We enhanced the K-nearest neighbor bootstrap based stochastic generator include: (i) clustering the forecast locations into climatologically homogeneous regions to better capture the spatial heterogeneity and, (ii) conditioning the weather forecasts on a probabilistic seasonal climate forecast. This multi-site stochastic weather generator runs in R and the NWS models run within the new Community Hydrologic Prediction System, a forecasting sequence we label WG-ESP. The WG-ESP framework was applied to generate ensemble forecasts of spring season (April-July) streamflow in the San Juan River Basin, one of the major tributaries of the Colorado River, for the period 1981-2010. The hydrologic model requires daily weather sequences at 66 locations in the basin. The enhanced daily weather generator sequences captured the distributional properties and spatial dependence of the climatological ESP, and also generated weather sequences consistent with conditioning on seasonal climate forecasts. Spring season ensemble forecast lead times from

  13. Prediction of Dynamic Stall Characteristics Using Advanced Non-Linear Panel Methods.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-04-04

    three- dimensional method , incorporating the techniques that are being examined in the two-dimensional pilot code. r.• - t... . .. -..-. .°.- S °"°"° I...RD-Ai48 453 PREDICTION OF DYNAMIC STRLL CHARACTERISTICS USING 1/1 RDVRNCED NON-LINERR PAN..(U) ANALYTICAL METHODS INC REDMOND WA B MRSKEW ET AL. 84...1 2.0 micROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART hAyl0#dM. @UAU M STAUIOAPOI A VOSR-TR 84.0 97 5 Analytical methods Report 8406 FINAL REPORT Tw. ’ PREDICITON OF

  14. Usefulness of human epididymis protein 4 in predicting cytoreductive surgical outcomes for advanced ovarian tubal and peritoneal carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Zhijian; Chang, Xiaohong; Ye, Xue; Li, Yi; Cheng, Hongyan

    2015-01-01

    Objective Human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) is a promising biomarker of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). But its role in assessing the primary optimal debulking (OD) of EOC remains unknown. The purpose of this study is to elucidate the ability of preoperative HE4 in predicting the primary cytoreductive outcomes in advanced EOC, tubal or peritoneal carcinoma. Methods We reviewed the records of 90 patients with advanced ovarian, tubal or peritoneal carcinoma who underwent primary cytoreduction at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of Peking University People’s Hospital between November 2005 and October 2010. Preoperative serum HE4 and CA125 levels were detected with EIA kit. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the most useful HE4 cut-off value. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify significant preoperative clinical characteristics to predict optimal primary cytoreduction. Results OD was achieved in 47.7% (43/48) of patients. The median preoperative HE4 level for patients with OD vs. suboptimal debulking was 423 and 820 pmol/L, respectively (P<0.001). The areas under the ROC curve for HE4 and CA125 were 0.716 and 0.599, respectively (P=0.080). The most useful HE4 cut-off value was 473 pmol/L. Suboptimal cytoreduction was obtained in 66.7% (38/57) of cases with HE4 ≥473 pmol/L compared with only 27.3% (9/33) of cases with HE4 <473 pmol/L. At this threshold, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for diagnosing suboptimal debulking were 81%, 56%, 67%, and 73%, respectively. Logistic regression analysis showed that the patients with HE4 ≥473 pmol/L were less likely to achieve OD (odds ratio =5.044, P=0.002). Conclusions Preoperative serum HE4 may be helpful to predict whether optimal cytoreductive surgery could be obtained or whether extended cytoreduction would be needed by an interdisciplinary team. PMID:26157328

  15. MicroRNA-31 Emerges as a Predictive Biomarker of Pathological Response and Outcome in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Caramés, Cristina; Cristobal, Ion; Moreno, Víctor; Marín, Juan P; González-Alonso, Paula; Torrejón, Blanca; Minguez, Pablo; Leon, Ana; Martín, José I; Hernández, Roberto; Pedregal, Manuel; Martín, María J; Cortés, Delia; García-Olmo, Damian; Fernández, María J; Rojo, Federico; García-Foncillas, Jesús

    2016-06-03

    Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision has emerged as the standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients. However, many cases do not respond to neoadjuvant CRT, suffering unnecessary toxicities and surgery delays. Thus, identification of predictive biomarkers for neoadjuvant CRT is a current clinical need. In the present study, microRNA-31 expression was measured in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) biopsies from 78 patients diagnosed with LARC who were treated with neoadjuvant CRT. Then, the obtained results were correlated with clinical and pathological characteristics and outcome. High microRNA-31 (miR-31) levels were found overexpressed in 34.2% of cases. Its overexpression significantly predicted poor pathological response (p = 0.018) and worse overall survival (OS) (p = 0.008). The odds ratio for no pathological response among patients with miR-31 overexpression was 0.18 (Confidence Interval = 0.06 to 0.57; p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis corroborated the clinical impact of miR-31 in determining pathological response to neoadjuvant CRT as well as OS. Altogether, miR-31 quantification emerges as a novel valuable clinical tool to predict both pathological response and outcome in LARC patients.

  16. MicroRNA-31 Emerges as a Predictive Biomarker of Pathological Response and Outcome in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Caramés, Cristina; Cristobal, Ion; Moreno, Víctor; Marín, Juan P.; González-Alonso, Paula; Torrejón, Blanca; Minguez, Pablo; Leon, Ana; Martín, José I.; Hernández, Roberto; Pedregal, Manuel; Martín, María J.; Cortés, Delia; García-Olmo, Damian; Fernández, María J.; Rojo, Federico; García-Foncillas, Jesús

    2016-01-01

    Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision has emerged as the standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients. However, many cases do not respond to neoadjuvant CRT, suffering unnecessary toxicities and surgery delays. Thus, identification of predictive biomarkers for neoadjuvant CRT is a current clinical need. In the present study, microRNA-31 expression was measured in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) biopsies from 78 patients diagnosed with LARC who were treated with neoadjuvant CRT. Then, the obtained results were correlated with clinical and pathological characteristics and outcome. High microRNA-31 (miR-31) levels were found overexpressed in 34.2% of cases. Its overexpression significantly predicted poor pathological response (p = 0.018) and worse overall survival (OS) (p = 0.008). The odds ratio for no pathological response among patients with miR-31 overexpression was 0.18 (Confidence Interval = 0.06 to 0.57; p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis corroborated the clinical impact of miR-31 in determining pathological response to neoadjuvant CRT as well as OS. Altogether, miR-31 quantification emerges as a novel valuable clinical tool to predict both pathological response and outcome in LARC patients. PMID:27271609

  17. A model to predict deflection of bevel-tipped active needle advancing in soft tissue.

    PubMed

    Datla, Naresh V; Konh, Bardia; Honarvar, Mohammad; Podder, Tarun K; Dicker, Adam P; Yu, Yan; Hutapea, Parsaoran

    2014-03-01

    Active needles are recently being developed to improve steerability and placement accuracy for various medical applications. These active needles can bend during insertion by actuators attached to their bodies. The bending of active needles enables them to be steered away from the critical organs on the way to target and accurately reach target locations previously unachievable with conventional rigid needles. These active needles combined with an asymmetric bevel-tip can further improve their steerability. To optimize the design and to develop accurate path planning and control algorithms, there is a need to develop a tissue-needle interaction model. This work presents an energy-based model that predicts needle deflection of active bevel-tipped needles when inserted into the tissue. This current model was based on an existing energy-based model for bevel-tipped needles, to which work of actuation was included in calculating the system energy. The developed model was validated with needle insertion experiments with a phantom material. The model predicts needle deflection reasonably for higher diameter needles (11.6% error), whereas largest error was observed for the smallest needle diameter (24.7% error).

  18. Recovery Act. Development and Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Enhanced Geothermal System

    SciTech Connect

    Gutierrez, Marte

    2016-12-31

    The research project aims to develop and validate an advanced computer model that can be used in the planning and design of stimulation techniques to create engineered reservoirs for Enhanced Geothermal Systems. The specific objectives of the proposal are to: 1) Develop a true three-dimensional hydro-thermal fracturing simulator that is particularly suited for EGS reservoir creation. 2) Perform laboratory scale model tests of hydraulic fracturing and proppant flow/transport using a polyaxial loading device, and use the laboratory results to test and validate the 3D simulator. 3) Perform discrete element/particulate modeling of proppant transport in hydraulic fractures, and use the results to improve understand of proppant flow and transport. 4) Test and validate the 3D hydro-thermal fracturing simulator against case histories of EGS energy production. 5) Develop a plan to commercialize the 3D fracturing and proppant flow/transport simulator. The project is expected to yield several specific results and benefits. Major technical products from the proposal include: 1) A true-3D hydro-thermal fracturing computer code that is particularly suited to EGS, 2) Documented results of scale model tests on hydro-thermal fracturing and fracture propping in an analogue crystalline rock, 3) Documented procedures and results of discrete element/particulate modeling of flow and transport of proppants for EGS applications, and 4) Database of monitoring data, with focus of Acoustic Emissions (AE) from lab scale modeling and field case histories of EGS reservoir creation.

  19. Recovery Act. Development and Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Gutierrez, Marte

    2013-12-31

    This research project aims to develop and validate an advanced computer model that can be used in the planning and design of stimulation techniques to create engineered reservoirs for Enhanced Geothermal Systems. The specific objectives of the proposal are to; Develop a true three-dimensional hydro-thermal fracturing simulator that is particularly suited for EGS reservoir creation; Perform laboratory scale model tests of hydraulic fracturing and proppant flow/transport using a polyaxial loading device, and use the laboratory results to test and validate the 3D simulator; Perform discrete element/particulate modeling of proppant transport in hydraulic fractures, and use the results to improve understand of proppant flow and transport; Test and validate the 3D hydro-thermal fracturing simulator against case histories of EGS energy production; and Develop a plan to commercialize the 3D fracturing and proppant flow/transport simulator. The project is expected to yield several specific results and benefits. Major technical products from the proposal include; A true-3D hydro-thermal fracturing computer code that is particularly suited to EGS; Documented results of scale model tests on hydro-thermal fracturing and fracture propping in an analogue crystalline rock; Documented procedures and results of discrete element/particulate modeling of flow and transport of proppants for EGS applications; and Database of monitoring data, with focus of Acoustic Emissions (AE) from lab scale modeling and field case histories of EGS reservoir creation.

  20. Advances and challenges in biomarker development for type 1 diabetes prediction and prevention using omic technologies

    PubMed Central

    Carey, Colleen; Purohit, Sharad; She, Jin-Xiong

    2010-01-01

    Importance of the field Biomarkers are essential for the identification of high risk children as well as monitoring of prevention outcomes for type 1 diabetes (T1D). Areas covered in this review This review discusses progress, opportunities and challenges in biomarker discovery and validation using high throughput genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic technologies. The authors also suggest potential solutions to deal with the current challenges. What the reader will gain Readers will gain an overview of the current status on T1D biomarkers, an integrated review of three omic technologies, their applications and limitations for biomarker discovery and validation, and a critical discussion of the major issues encountered in biomarker development. Take home message Better biomarkers are still urgently needed for T1D prediction and prevention. The high throughput omic technologies offer great opportunities but also face significant challenges that have to be solved before their potential for biomarker development is fully realized. PMID:20885991

  1. Correlation of predicted and measured thermal stresses on an advanced aircraft structure with similar materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    A laboratory heating test simulating hypersonic heating was conducted on a heat-sink type structure to provide basic thermal stress measurements. Six NASTRAN models utilizing various combinations of bar, shear panel, membrane, and plate elements were used to develop calculated thermal stresses. Thermal stresses were also calculated using a beam model. For a given temperature distribution there was very little variation in NASTRAN calculated thermal stresses when element types were interchanged for a given grid system. Thermal stresses calculated for the beam model compared similarly to the values obtained for the NASTRAN models. Calculated thermal stresses compared generally well to laboratory measured thermal stresses. A discrepancy of signifiance occurred between the measured and predicted thermal stresses in the skin areas. A minor anomaly in the laboratory skin heating uniformity resulted in inadequate temperature input data for the structural models.

  2. Predictive biomarkers for response to therapy in advanced colorectal/rectal adenocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Kapur, Payal

    2012-01-01

    Over the past couple of decades, with discovery of novel targeted therapies, and expansion of our understanding of the molecular biology of rectal cancer, there has been an emergence of a wide variety of therapeutic options designed to facilitate a personalized approach for the treatment of this malignancy. A plethora of new prognostic and predictive single genes and proteins are being discovered that may reflect susceptibility and/or resistance to therapy. Pathologic complete response rates occur in 10-16% of patients and have been shown to correlate with both disease-free and overall survival. However, the response to neoadjuvant therapy remains variable and unpredictable. In this review, some of these novel markers are discussed for their potential use as pharmacogenetic predictors for specific therapy, drug toxicity, and disease outcome.

  3. Recent advances in computational predictions of NMR parameters for the structure elucidation of carbohydrates: methods and limitations.

    PubMed

    Toukach, Filip V; Ananikov, Valentine P

    2013-11-07

    All living systems are comprised of four fundamental classes of macromolecules--nucleic acids, proteins, lipids, and carbohydrates (glycans). Glycans play a unique role of joining three principal hierarchical levels of the living world: (1) the molecular level (pathogenic agents and vaccine recognition by the immune system, metabolic pathways involving saccharides that provide cells with energy, and energy accumulation via photosynthesis); (2) the nanoscale level (cell membrane mechanics, structural support of biomolecules, and the glycosylation of macromolecules); (3) the microscale and macroscale levels (polymeric materials, such as cellulose, starch, glycogen, and biomass). NMR spectroscopy is the most powerful research approach for getting insight into the solution structure and function of carbohydrates at all hierarchical levels, from monosaccharides to oligo- and polysaccharides. Recent progress in computational procedures has opened up novel opportunities to reveal the structural information available in the NMR spectra of saccharides and to advance our understanding of the corresponding biochemical processes. The ability to predict the molecular geometry and NMR parameters is crucial for the elucidation of carbohydrate structures. In the present paper, we review the major NMR spectrum simulation techniques with regard to chemical shifts, coupling constants, relaxation rates and nuclear Overhauser effect prediction applied to the three levels of glycomics. Outstanding development in the related fields of genomics and proteomics has clearly shown that it is the advancement of research tools (automated spectrum analysis, structure elucidation, synthesis, sequencing and amplification) that drives the large challenges in modern science. Combining NMR spectroscopy and the computational analysis of structural information encoded in the NMR spectra reveals a way to the automated elucidation of the structure of carbohydrates.

  4. Pre-adjuvant chemotherapy leukocyte count may predict the outcome for advanced gastric cancer after radical resection.

    PubMed

    Pei, Dong; Zhu, Fang; Chen, Xiaofeng; Qian, Jing; He, Shaohua; Qian, Yingying; Shen, Hua; Liu, Yiqian; Xu, Jiali; Shu, Yongqian

    2014-03-01

    Gastric cancer (GC) has a high morbidity worldwide each year especially in China and advanced GC is well known with poor prognosis, for which surgical resection combine adjuvant chemotherapy is the optimal choice for therapy. Leukocyte is an important index during the treatment for its influence on drugs' dosage and tolerance. Therefore, peripheral blood leukocyte and its subsets during adjuvant chemotherapy may have great clinical value for predicting prognostic. In this retrospective study, we showed the distribution of white blood cell and its subsets in the baseline period before adjuvant chemotherapy in 399 patients who underwent radical resection for advanced GC from January 1, 2008 to August 31, 2012. We investigated the relationship between leukocyte count and overall survival (OS) as well as disease-free survival (DFS). In these patients, females were more likely to have less white blood cells after operation (P=0.016). Patients with pre-chemotherapy leukocyte count less than 4×10(9)/L got worse DFS (P=0.028) and OS (P=0.016). In multivariate analysis, tumor size ≥ 6cm (P=0.033), TNM stage IV (P=0.024), vascular or nerval invasion (P=0.005) and leukocyte count less than 4.0×10(9)/L (P=0.019) was associated with poor DFS. TNM stage IV (P=0.008), vascular or nerval invasion (P=0.001) and lower leukocyte count (P=0.045) were independent risk factors for poor OS. Taken together, our findings suggest that pre-adjuvant chemotherapy peripheral blood leukocyte count correlates with clinical outcome of patients with advanced GC after radical resection.

  5. HPV Genotypes Predict Survival Benefits From Concurrent Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy in Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Cervix

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Chun-Chieh; Lai, Chyong-Huey; Huang, Yi-Ting; Chao, Angel; Chou, Hung-Hsueh; Hong, Ji-Hong

    2012-11-15

    Purpose: To study the prognostic value of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes in patients with advanced cervical cancer treated with radiation therapy (RT) alone or concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT). Methods and Materials: Between August 1993 and May 2000, 327 patients with advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage III/IVA or stage IIB with positive lymph nodes) were eligible for this study. HPV genotypes were determined using the Easychip Registered-Sign HPV genechip. Outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: We detected 22 HPV genotypes in 323 (98.8%) patients. The leading 4 types were HPV16, 58, 18, and 33. The 5-year overall and disease-specific survival estimates for the entire cohort were 41.9% and 51.4%, respectively. CCRT improved the 5-year disease-specific survival by an absolute 9.8%, but this was not statistically significant (P=.089). There was a significant improvement in disease-specific survival in the CCRT group for HPV18-positive (60.9% vs 30.4%, P=.019) and HPV58-positive (69.3% vs 48.9%, P=.026) patients compared with the RT alone group. In contrast, the differences in survival with CCRT compared with RT alone in the HPV16-positive and HPV-33 positive subgroups were not statistically significant (P=.86 and P=.53, respectively). An improved disease-specific survival was observed for CCRT treated patients infected with both HPV16 and HPV18, but these differenced also were not statistically significant. Conclusions: The HPV genotype may be a useful predictive factor for the effect of CCRT in patients with advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix. Verifying these results in prospective trials could have an impact on tailoring future treatment based on HPV genotype.

  6. Advanced Procedures for Long-Term Creep Data Prediction for 2.25 Chromium Steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittaker, Mark T.; Wilshire, Brian

    2013-01-01

    A critical review of recent creep studies concluded that traditional approaches such as steady-state behavior, power law equations, and the view that diffusional creep mechanisms are dominant at low stresses should be seriously reconsidered. Specifically, creep strain rate against time curves show that a decaying primary rate leads into an accelerating tertiary stage, giving a minimum rather than a secondary period. Conventional steady-state mechanisms should therefore be abandoned in favor of an understanding of the processes governing strain accumulation and the damage phenomena causing tertiary creep and fracture. Similarly, creep always takes place by dislocation processes, with no change to diffusional creep mechanisms with decreasing stress, negating the concept of deformation mechanism maps. Alternative descriptions are then provided by normalizing the applied stress through the ultimate tensile stress and yield stress at the creep temperature. In this way, the resulting Wilshire equations allow accurate prediction of 100,00 hours of creep data using only property values from tests lasting 5000 hours for a series of 2.25 chromium steels, namely grades 22, 23, and 24.

  7. Predictive transport simulations of real-time profile control in JET advanced tokamak plasmas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tala, T.; Laborde, L.; Mazon, D.; Moreau, D.; Corrigan, G.; Crisanti, F.; Garbet, X.; Heading, D.; Joffrin, E.; Litaudon, X.; Parail, V.; Salmi, A.; EFDA-JET workprogramme, contributors to the

    2005-09-01

    Predictive, time-dependent transport simulations with a semi-empirical plasma model have been used in closed-loop simulations to control the q-profile and the strength and location of the internal transport barrier (ITB). Five transport equations (Te, Ti, q, ne, vΦ) are solved, and the power levels of lower hybrid current drive, NBI and ICRH are calculated in a feedback loop determined by the feedback controller matrix. The real-time control (RTC) technique and algorithms used in the transport simulations are identical to those implemented and used in JET experiments (Laborde L. et al 2005 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 47 155 and Moreau D. et al 2003 Nucl. Fusion 43 870). The closed-loop simulations with RTC demonstrate that varieties of q-profiles and pressure profiles in the ITB can be achieved and controlled simultaneously. The simulations also showed that with the same RTC technique as used in JET experiments, it is possible to sustain the q-profiles and pressure profiles close to their set-point profiles for longer than the current diffusion time. In addition, the importance of being able to handle the multiple time scales to control the location and strength of the ITB is pointed out. Several future improvements and perspectives of the RTC scheme are presented.

  8. Immunohistochemical prediction of lapatinib efficacy in advanced HER2-positive breast cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Duchnowska, Renata; Wysocki, Piotr J.; Korski, Konstanty; Czartoryska-Arłukowicz, Bogumiła; Niwińska, Anna; Orlikowska, Marlena; Radecka, Barbara; Studziński, Maciej; Demlova, Regina; Ziółkowska, Barbara; Merdalska, Monika; Hajac, Łukasz; Myśliwiec, Paulina; Zuziak, Dorota; Dębska-Szmich, Sylwia; Lang, Istvan; Foszczyńska-Kłoda, Małgorzata; Karczmarek-Borowska, Bożenna; Żawrocki, Anton; Kowalczyk, Anna; Biernat, Wojciech; Jassem, Jacek

    2016-01-01

    Molecular mechanisms of lapatinib resistance in breast cancer are not well understood. The aim of this study was to correlate expression of selected proteins involved in ErbB family signaling pathways with clinical efficacy of lapatinib. Study group included 270 HER2-positive advanced breast cancer patients treated with lapatinib and capecitabine. Immunohistochemical expression of phosphorylated adenosine monophosphate-activated protein (p-AMPK), mitogen-activated protein kinase (p-MAPK), phospho (p)-p70S6K, cyclin E, phosphatase and tensin homolog were analyzed in primary breast cancer samples. The best discriminative value for progression-free survival (PFS) was established for each biomarker and subjected to multivariate analysis. At least one biomarker was determined in 199 patients. Expression of p-p70S6K was independently associated with longer (HR 0.45; 95% CI: 0.25–0.81; p = 0.009), and cyclin E with shorter PFS (HR 1.83; 95% CI: 1.06–3.14; p = 0.029). Expression of p-MAPK (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.13–2.29; p = 0.009) and cyclin E (HR 2.99; 95% CI: 1.29–6.94; p = 0.011) was correlated with shorter, and expression of estrogen receptor (HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.43–0.98; p = 0.041) with longer overall survival. Expression of p-AMPK negatively impacted response to treatment (HR 3.31; 95% CI 1.48–7.44; p = 0.004) and disease control (HR 3.07; 95% CI 1.25–7.58; p = 0.015). In conclusion: the efficacy of lapatinib seems to be associated with the activity of downstream signaling pathways – AMPK/mTOR and Ras/Raf/MAPK. Further research is warranted to assess the clinical utility of these data and to determine a potential role of combining lapatinib with MAPK pathway inhibitors. PMID:26623720

  9. Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Jha, Bhaskar; Peng, Peitao

    2017-01-01

    Based on hindcasts of seasonal forecast systems participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, the seasonal dependence of predictability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was estimated. The results were consistent with earlier analyses in that the predictability of ENSO was highest in winter and lowest in spring and summer. Further, predictability as measured by the relative amplitude of predictable and unpredictable components was dominated by the ensemble mean instead of the spread (or dispersion) among ensemble members. This result was consistent with previous analysis that most of ENSO predictability resides in the shift of the probability density function (PDF) of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (i.e., changes in the first moment of the PDF that is associated with the ensemble mean of ENSO SST anomalies) rather than due to changes in the spread of the PDF. The analysis establishes our current best estimate of ENSO predictability that can serve as a benchmark for quantifying further improvements resulting from advances in observing, assimilation, and seasonal prediction systems.

  10. Predictive value of advanced glycation end products for the development of post-infarction heart failure: a preliminary report

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Since post-infarction heart failure (HF) determines a great morbidity and mortality, and given the physiopathology implications of advanced glycation end products (AGE) in the genesis of myocardial dysfunction, it was intended to analyze the prognostic value of these molecules in order to predict post-infarction HF development. Methods A prospective clinical study in patients after first acute coronary syndrome was conducted. The follow-up period was consisted in 1 year. In 194 patients consecutively admitted in the coronary unit for myocardial infarct fluorescent AGE levels were measured. The association between glycaemic parameters and the development of post-infarction HF were analyzed in those patients. Finally, we identified the variables with independent predictor value by performing a multivariate analysis of Hazard ratio for Cox regression. Results Eleven out of 194 patients (5.6%) developed HF during follow-up (median: 1.0 years [0.8 - 1.5 years]). Even though basal glucose, fructosamine and glycated haemoglobin were significant predictive factors in the univariate analysis, after being adjusted by confounding variables and AGE they lost their statistical signification. Only AGE (Hazard Ratio 1.016, IC 95%: 1.006-1.026; p<0,001), together with NT-proBNP and the infarct extension were predictors for post-infarction HF development, where AGE levels over the median value 5-fold increased the risk of HF development during follow-up. Conclusions AGE are an independent marker of post-infarction HF development risk. PMID:22909322

  11. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy in women with large and locally advanced breast cancer: chemoresistance and prediction of response to drug therapy.

    PubMed

    Chuthapisith, S; Eremin, J M; El-Sheemy, M; Eremin, O

    2006-08-01

    Patients with large and locally advanced breast cancer (LLABC) present with a therapeutic challenge and undergo multimodality treatment. Many such patients receive neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) prior to surgery. However, a number of these patients do not respond well to NAC and only a percentage (usually less than 30%) obtains a complete or optimal response. A range of mechanisms are believed to be involved in this chemoresistance, including ATP binding cassette (ABC) transporter overexpression, dysregulation of apoptosis and possibly increased numbers of cancer stem cells. The chemoresistant processes may be due to more than one mechanism. The ability to predict a response to NAC would be beneficial, targeting expensive and toxic drug treatment to those likely to respond and providing a therapeutic strategy for further post-operative chemotherapy. Currently, many biomarkers have been studied with a view to establishing a predictor of response. However, no single biomarker appears to be effective. Genomics is a novel biotechnological process which is being used to predict response to drug therapy; this work is currently at an early stage of development

  12. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    SciTech Connect

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  13. Numerical Simulations of Optical Turbulence Using an Advanced Atmospheric Prediction Model: Implications for Adaptive Optics Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alliss, R.

    2014-09-01

    Optical turbulence (OT) acts to distort light in the atmosphere, degrading imagery from astronomical telescopes and reducing the data quality of optical imaging and communication links. Some of the degradation due to turbulence can be corrected by adaptive optics. However, the severity of optical turbulence, and thus the amount of correction required, is largely dependent upon the turbulence at the location of interest. Therefore, it is vital to understand the climatology of optical turbulence at such locations. In many cases, it is impractical and expensive to setup instrumentation to characterize the climatology of OT, so numerical simulations become a less expensive and convenient alternative. The strength of OT is characterized by the refractive index structure function Cn2, which in turn is used to calculate atmospheric seeing parameters. While attempts have been made to characterize Cn2 using empirical models, Cn2 can be calculated more directly from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) simulations using pressure, temperature, thermal stability, vertical wind shear, turbulent Prandtl number, and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE). In this work we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) NWP model to generate Cn2 climatologies in the planetary boundary layer and free atmosphere, allowing for both point-to-point and ground-to-space seeing estimates of the Fried Coherence length (ro) and other seeing parameters. Simulations are performed using a multi-node linux cluster using the Intel chip architecture. The WRF model is configured to run at 1km horizontal resolution and centered on the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) of the Big Island. The vertical resolution varies from 25 meters in the boundary layer to 500 meters in the stratosphere. The model top is 20 km. The Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) TKE scheme has been modified to diagnose the turbulent Prandtl number as a function of the Richardson number, following observations by Kondo and others. This modification

  14. Evaluation of plasma microRNA levels to predict insensitivity of patients with advanced lung adenocarcinomas to pemetrexed and platinum.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Jinghua; Qi, Yuhua; Wu, Jianzhong; Shi, Meiqi; Feng, Jifeng; Chen, Longbang

    2016-12-01

    Pemetrexed combined with platinum is a first-line therapy used to treat patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) that exhibit negative or unknown epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutational status or anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangements. Lung adenocarcinoma (LAC) is the primary type of NSCLC. In order to prevent overtreatment, it is necessary to identify patients with LAC who may not benefit from certain chemotherapies. Patients recruited in the present study (n=129) were diagnosed with advanced LAC and received first-line pemetrexed and platinum-based chemotherapy. A microRNA (miR) microarray was used to screen the plasma miR expression profiles in a screening set of eight patients prior to and following treatment. Specifically, plasma miR-25, miR-21, miR-27b, miR-326, miR-483-5p and miR-920 were selected for reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis in a training set (n=44) prior to treatment. The screening and training set patients were all non-smokers with no prior history of serious or chronic disease. The ∆∆Cq values of these miRs were compared between the group that showed benefit from pemetrexed and platinum treatment and the group that did not. Consequently, the ∆∆Cq values of miR-25, miR-21, miR-27b and miR-326 were further determined in a validation set (n=77). The results of the present study demonstrate that plasma expression levels of miR-25, miR-21, miR-27b and miR-326, in the training and validation sets prior to treatment, were significantly different between the benefit and non-benefit groups (P≤0.001). The expression of miR-25, miR-21, miR-27b and miR-326 was upregulated in the non-benefit group and this elevation was positively correlated with decreased progression-free survival (PFS; P≤0.001). In addition, the predictive power of each miR was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curves, in which miR-25 exhibited the highest degree of accuracy (area under

  15. Outcome prediction of advanced mantle cell lymphoma by international prognostic index versus different mantle cell lymphoma indexes: one institution study.

    PubMed

    Todorovic, Milena; Balint, Bela; Andjelic, Bosko; Stanisavljevic, Dejana; Kurtovic, Nada Kraguljac; Radisavljevic, Ziv; Mihaljevic, Biljana

    2012-09-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of international prognostic index (IPI), mantle cell lymphoma IPI (MIPI), simplified MIPI (sMIPI), and MIPI biological (MIPIb), as well as their correlation with immunophenotype, clinical characteristics, and overall survival (OS), in a selected group of 54 patients with advanced-stage mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), treated uniformly with CHOP. Seventeen patients had IV clinical stage (CS), while other 37 had leukemic phase at presentation. Diffuse type of marrow infiltration was verified in 68.5% and nodular in remainder patients. Extranodal localization (25.9%) included bowel (20.4%), pleural effusion, sinus, and palpebral infiltration. All of analyzed patients expressed typical MCL immunophenotypic profile: CD19(+)CD20(+)CD22(+)CD5(+)Cyclin-D1(+)FMC7(+)CD79b(+)smIg(+)CD38(+/-)CD23(-)CD10(-). Median OS of the whole group was 23 months, without significant differences between IV CS and leukemic phase patients. Thirty-two patients (59.3%) responded to initial treatment, 9 (16.7%) with complete and 23 (42.6%) with partial remission. Negative prognostic influence on OS had high IPI (P < 0.01), high sMIPI (P < 0.001), MIPI (P < 0.01), MIPIb (P < 0.01), extranodal localization (P < 0.01), and diffuse marrow infiltration (P < 0.01). Testing between randomly selected groups showed that patients with lower proportion of CD5(+) cells (<80%) correlated with cytological blastoid variant and had shorter survival comparing with the group with higher proportion of CD5(+) cells (>80%) (P < 0.01). Using univariate Cox regression, we proved that IPI, sMIPI, MIPI, and MIPIb had an independent predictive importance (P < 0.01) for OS in uniformly treated advanced MCL patients, although sMIPI prognostic significance was the highest (P < 0.001).

  16. Primary Tumor Necrosis Predicts Distant Control in Locally Advanced Soft-Tissue Sarcomas After Preoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    MacDermed, Dhara M.; Miller, Luke L.; Peabody, Terrance D.; Simon, Michael A.; Luu, Hue H.; Haydon, Rex C.; Montag, Anthony G.; Undevia, Samir D.

    2010-03-15

    Purpose: Various neoadjuvant approaches have been evaluated for the treatment of locally advanced soft-tissue sarcomas. This retrospective study describes a uniquely modified version of the Eilber regimen developed at the University of Chicago. Methods and Materials: We treated 34 patients (28 Stage III and 6 Stage IV) with locally advanced soft-tissue sarcomas of an extremity between 1995 and 2008. All patients received preoperative therapy including ifosfamide (2.5 g/m2 per day for 5 days) with concurrent radiation (28 Gy in 3.5-Gy daily fractions), sandwiched between various chemotherapy regimens. Postoperatively, 47% received further adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: Most tumors (94%) were Grade 3, and all were T2b, with a median size of 10.3 cm. Wide excision was performed in 29 patients (85%), and 5 required amputation. Of the resected tumor specimens, 50% exhibited high (>=90%) treatment-induced necrosis and 11.8% had a complete pathologic response. Surgical margins were negative in all patients. The 5-year survival rate was 42.3% for all patients and 45.2% for Stage III patients. For limb-preservation patients, the 5-year local control rate was 89.0% and reoperation was required for wound complications in 17.2%. The 5-year freedom-from-distant metastasis rate was 53.4% (Stage IV patients excluded), and freedom from distant metastasis was superior if treatment-induced tumor necrosis was 90% or greater (84.6% vs. 19.9%, p = 0.02). Conclusions: This well-tolerated concurrent chemoradiotherapy approach yields excellent rates of limb preservation and local control. The resulting treatment-induced necrosis rates are predictive of subsequent metastatic risk, and this information may provide an opportunity to guide postoperative systemic therapies.

  17. Temperature and Material Flow Prediction in Friction-Stir Spot Welding of Advanced High-Strength Steel

    SciTech Connect

    Miles, Michael; Karki, U.; Hovanski, Yuri

    2014-10-01

    Friction-stir spot welding (FSSW) has been shown to be capable of joining advanced high-strength steel, with its flexibility in controlling the heat of welding and the resulting microstructure of the joint. This makes FSSW a potential alternative to resistance spot welding if tool life is sufficiently high, and if machine spindle loads are sufficiently low that the process can be implemented on an industrial robot. Robots for spot welding can typically sustain vertical loads of about 8 kN, but FSSW at tool speeds of less than 3000 rpm cause loads that are too high, in the range of 11–14 kN. Therefore, in the current work, tool speeds of 5000 rpm were employed to generate heat more quickly and to reduce welding loads to acceptable levels. Si3N4 tools were used for the welding experiments on 1.2-mm DP 980 steel. The FSSW process was modeled with a finite element approach using the Forge* software. An updated Lagrangian scheme with explicit time integration was employed to predict the flow of the sheet material, subjected to boundary conditions of a rotating tool and a fixed backing plate. Material flow was calculated from a velocity field that is two-dimensional, but heat generated by friction was computed by a novel approach, where the rotational velocity component imparted to the sheet by the tool surface was included in the thermal boundary conditions. An isotropic, viscoplastic Norton-Hoff law was used to compute the material flow stress as a function of strain, strain rate, and temperature. The model predicted welding temperatures to within percent, and the position of the joint interface to within 10 percent, of the experimental results.

  18. Temperature and Material Flow Prediction in Friction-Stir Spot Welding of Advanced High-Strength Steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miles, M.; Karki, U.; Hovanski, Y.

    2014-10-01

    Friction-stir spot welding (FSSW) has been shown to be capable of joining advanced high-strength steel, with its flexibility in controlling the heat of welding and the resulting microstructure of the joint. This makes FSSW a potential alternative to resistance spot welding if tool life is sufficiently high, and if machine spindle loads are sufficiently low that the process can be implemented on an industrial robot. Robots for spot welding can typically sustain vertical loads of about 8 kN, but FSSW at tool speeds of less than 3000 rpm cause loads that are too high, in the range of 11-14 kN. Therefore, in the current work, tool speeds of 5000 rpm were employed to generate heat more quickly and to reduce welding loads to acceptable levels. Si3N4 tools were used for the welding experiments on 1.2-mm DP 980 steel. The FSSW process was modeled with a finite element approach using the Forge® software. An updated Lagrangian scheme with explicit time integration was employed to predict the flow of the sheet material, subjected to boundary conditions of a rotating tool and a fixed backing plate. Material flow was calculated from a velocity field that is two-dimensional, but heat generated by friction was computed by a novel approach, where the rotational velocity component imparted to the sheet by the tool surface was included in the thermal boundary conditions. An isotropic, viscoplastic Norton-Hoff law was used to compute the material flow stress as a function of strain, strain rate, and temperature. The model predicted welding temperatures to within 4%, and the position of the joint interface to within 10%, of the experimental results.

  19. cN-II expression predicts survival in patients receiving gemcitabine for advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Sève, Pascal; Mackey, John R; Isaac, Sylvie; Trédan, Olivier; Souquet, Pierre Jean; Pérol, Maurice; Cass, Carol; Dumontet, Charles

    2005-09-01

    Resistance to gemcitabine is likely to be multifactorial and could involve a number of mechanisms involved in drug penetration, metabolism and targeting. In vitro studies of resistant human cell lines have confirmed that human equilibrative nucleoside transporter 1 (hENT1)-deficient cells display resistance to gemcitabine. Overexpression of certain nucleotidases, such as cN-II, has also been frequently shown in gemcitabine-resistant models. In this study, we applied immunohistochemical methods to assess the protein abundance of cN-II, hENT1, human concentrative nucleoside transporter 3 (hCNT3) and deoxycitidine kinase (dCK) in malignant cells in from 43 patients with treatment-naïve locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). All patients subsequently received gemcitabine-based chemotherapy. Response to chemotherapy, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were correlated with abundance of these proteins. Among the 43 samples, only 7 (16%) expressed detectable hENT1, with a low percentage of positive cells, 18 expressed hCNT3 (42%), 36 (86%) expressed cN-II and 28 (66%) expressed dCK. In univariate analysis, only cN-II expression levels were correlated with overall survival. None of the parameters were correlated with freedom from progression survival nor with response. Patients with low levels of expression of cN-II (less than 40% positively stained cells) had worse overall survival than patients with higher levels of cN-II expression (6 months and 11 months, respectively). In a multivariate analysis taking into account age, sex, weight loss, stage and immunohistochemical results, cN-II was the only predictive factor associated with overall survival. This study suggests that cN-II nucleotidase expression levels identify subgroups of NSCLC patients with different outcomes under gemcitabine-based therapy. Larger prospective studies are warranted to confirm the predictive value of cN-II in these patients.

  20. De novo sequencing of circulating miRNAs identifies novel markers predicting clinical outcome of locally advanced breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background MicroRNAs (miRNAs) have been recently detected in the circulation of cancer patients, where they are associated with clinical parameters. Discovery profiling of circulating small RNAs has not been reported in breast cancer (BC), and was carried out in this study to identify blood-based small RNA markers of BC clinical outcome. Methods The pre-treatment sera of 42 stage II-III locally advanced and inflammatory BC patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) followed by surgical tumor resection were analyzed for marker identification by deep sequencing all circulating small RNAs. An independent validation cohort of 26 stage II-III BC patients was used to assess the power of identified miRNA markers. Results More than 800 miRNA species were detected in the circulation, and observed patterns showed association with histopathological profiles of BC. Groups of circulating miRNAs differentially associated with ER/PR/HER2 status and inflammatory BC were identified. The relative levels of selected miRNAs measured by PCR showed consistency with their abundance determined by deep sequencing. Two circulating miRNAs, miR-375 and miR-122, exhibited strong correlations with clinical outcomes, including NCT response and relapse with metastatic disease. In the validation cohort, higher levels of circulating miR-122 specifically predicted metastatic recurrence in stage II-III BC patients. Conclusions Our study indicates that certain miRNAs can serve as potential blood-based biomarkers for NCT response, and that miR-122 prevalence in the circulation predicts BC metastasis in early-stage patients. These results may allow optimized chemotherapy treatments and preventive anti-metastasis interventions in future clinical applications. PMID:22400902

  1. XRCC2 as a predictive biomarker for radioresistance in locally advanced rectal cancer patients undergoing preoperative radiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Qin, Chang-Jiang; Song, Xin-Ming; Chen, Zhi-Hui; Ren, Xue-Qun; Xu, Kai-Wu; Jing, Hong; He, Yu-Long

    2015-01-01

    XRCC2 has been shown to increase the radioresistance of some cancers. Here, XRCC2 expression was investigated as a predictor of preoperative radiotherapy (PRT) treatment response in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). XRCC2 was found to be overexpressed in rectal cancer tissues resected from patients who underwent surgery without PRT. In addition, overall survival for LARC patients was improved in XRCC2-negative patients compared with XRCC2-positive patients after treatment with PRT (P < 0.001). XRCC2 expression was also associated with an increase in LARC radioresistance. Conversely, XRCC2-deficient cancer cells were more sensitive to irradiation in vitro, and a higher proportion of these cells underwent cell death induced by G2/M phase arrest and apoptosis. When XRCC2 was knocked down, the repair of DNA double-strand breaks caused by irradiation was impaired. Therefore, XRCC2 may increases LARC radioresistance by repairing DNA double-strand breaks and preventing cancer cell apoptosis. Moreover, the present data suggest that XRCC2 is a useful predictive biomarker of PRT treatment response in LARC patients. Thus, inhibition of XRCC2 expression or activity represents a potential therapeutic strategy for improving PRT response in LARC patients. PMID:26320178

  2. Soil-to-plant transfer factors of radioactive Ca, Sm and Pd isotopes: critical assessment of the use of analogies to derive best-estimates from existing non-specific data.

    PubMed

    Henner, Pascale; Hurtevent, Pierre; Thiry, Yves

    2014-10-01

    (45)Ca, (151)Sm and (107)Pd are three radionuclides present in low to intermediate in activity radioactive wastes for which no soil-to-plant Transfer Factors (TF) values are available to be used in biosphere models for Ecological Risk Assessment. In the absence of specific radioecological studies, this work reviews and analyzes the existing literature for stable isotopes of Pd, Sm and Ca in order to derive best estimates for TF values that could be used as Transfer Factors. Alternative methods of extrapolation are also critically assessed. The values have been classified according to climatic zone, plant class and soil type for each element. The overall geometric mean TF values (for all plants and conditions) was calculated as 8.4E-02 for Pd, for which the value of radioRu in TRS-472 is also available. The mean TF for Sm was 4.2E-04. This value was lower than the TF values for radioactive Ce that are proposed as alternative values for Sm in TRS-472. The former may be relevant for long term assessments and the latter could possibly used to describe the short term (151)Sm post-release behaviour. The mean value for Ca is 2.3E-01 but varies considerably among plants of a given class due to the variety of plant Ca uptake behaviors. Alternatively, to limit this variability, Ca data content for dry plant matter, as analyzed using the phylogenetic method, could be used to derive TF values if the conservation of isotopic ratio of (45)Ca to stable Ca in soils and in plants hypothesis is taken into account. The TF for Ca in sub-tropical zones is 10-fold lower than in temperate zones. There is a lot of data available about exchangeable Ca in soil, which mean that we could calculate an available TF. The analysis shows that Ca bioavailability is also a key factor within transfer.

  3. Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for Improved Regional Weather Prediction and Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pagano, Thomas S.; Chahine, Moustafa T.; Susskind, Joel

    2008-01-01

    Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g., the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on Met Op) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1 km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

  4. PREDICTING CIRRHOSIS AND CLINICAL OUTCOMES IN PATIENTS WITH ADVANCED CHRONIC HEPATITIS C WITH A PANEL OF GENETIC MARKERS (CRS7)

    PubMed Central

    Curto, Teresa M.; Lagier, Robert J.; Lok, Anna S.; Everhart, James E.; Rowland, Charles M.; Sninsky, John J.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives Genetic factors may play a role in fibrosis progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). A cirrhosis risk score (CRS7) with 7 SNPs was previously shown to correlate with cirrhosis in patients with CHC. This study aimed to assess the validity of CRS7 as a marker of fibrosis progression and cirrhosis and as a predictor of clinical outcomes in patients with CHC. Methods A total of 938 patients (677 Caucasians, 165 African Americans, and 96 Hispanic/Other) in the HALT-C Trial were studied. CRS7 was categorized a priori as high risk (n=440), medium risk (n=310) or low risk (n=188). Patients were assessed for four possible outcomes: fibrosis progression, cirrhosis, clinical outcomes (decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]), or HCC alone. Results 29% (142/493) developed an increase in fibrosis score by ≥ 2 points on follow-up biopsies, 58% had cirrhosis on one or more biopsies, 35% developed at least one clinical outcome, and 13% developed HCC. CRS7 (trend test) was associated with risk for fibrosis progression (p=0.04) with adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.27 (95%CI: 1.01–1.58) and with cirrhosis (p=0.05) with adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.19 (1.00–1.41). Rates of HCC and clinical outcomes were increased in patients with higher CRS7 scores, but were not statistically significant (p=0.12 clinical outcomes, and p=0.07 HCC). A SNP in AZIN1 was significantly associated with fibrosis progression. Conclusions CRS7 was validated as a predictor of fibrosis progression and cirrhosis among HALT-C patients, who all had advanced fibrosis. CRS7 was not predictive of clinical outcome. PMID:21946897

  5. Iron Levels in Hepatocytes and Portal Tract Cells Predict Progression and Outcome of Patients with Advanced Chronic Hepatitis C1

    PubMed Central

    Lambrecht, Richard W.; Sterling, Richard K.; Naishadham, Deepa; Stoddard, Anne M.; Rogers, Thomas; Morishima, Chihiro; Morgan, Timothy R.; Bonkovsky, Herbert L.

    2011-01-01

    Background & Aims Iron might influence severity and progression of non-hemochromatotic liver diseases. We assessed the relationships between iron, variants in HFE, and progression and outcomes using data from the HALT-C Trial. We determined whether therapy with pegylated interferon (PegIFN) affects iron variables. Methods Participants were randomly assigned to groups given long-term therapy with PegIFN (n=400) or no therapy (n=413) for 3.5 y and followed for up to 8.7 y (median 6.0 y). Associations between patient characteristics and iron variables, at baseline and over time, were made using Kaplan-Meier analyses, Cox regression models, and repeated measures analysis of covariance. Iron was detected by Prussian blue staining. Results Patients with poor outcomes (increase in Child-Turcotte-Pugh score to ≥ 7, development of ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatocellular carcinoma, death) had significantly higher baseline scores for stainable iron in hepatocytes and cells in portal tracts than those without outcomes. Staining for iron in portal triads correlated with lobular and total Ishak inflammatory and fibrosis scores (P<0.0001). High baseline levels of iron in triads increased the risk for poor outcome (hazard ratio=1.35, P=0.02). Iron staining decreased in hepatocytes but increased in portal stromal cells over time (P<0.0001). Serum levels of iron and total iron binding capacity decreased significantly over time (P <0.0001), as did serum ferritin (P=0.0003). Long-term therapy with PegIFN did not affect levels of iron staining. Common variants in HFE did not correlate with outcomes, including development of hepatocellular carcinoma. Conclusions Degree of stainable iron in hepatocytes and portal tract cells predicts progression and clinical and histological outcomes of patients with advanced chronic hepatitis C. Long-term therapy with low-dose PegIFN did not improve outcomes or iron variables. PMID:21335007

  6. The weather roulette: assessing the economic value of seasonal wind speed predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christel, Isadora; Cortesi, Nicola; Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Soret, Albert; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

    2016-04-01

    Climate prediction is an emerging and highly innovative research area. For the wind energy sector, predicting the future variability of wind resources over the coming weeks or seasons is especially relevant to quantify operation and maintenance logistic costs or to inform energy trading decision with potential cost savings and/or economic benefits. Recent advances in climate predictions have already shown that probabilistic forecasting can improve the current prediction practices, which are based in the use of retrospective climatology and the assumption that what happened in the past is the best estimation of future conditions. Energy decision makers now have this new set of climate services but, are they willing to use them? Our aim is to properly explain the potential economic benefits of adopting probabilistic predictions, compared with the current practice, by using the weather roulette methodology (Hagedorn & Smith, 2009). This methodology is a diagnostic tool created to inform in a more intuitive and relevant way about the skill and usefulness of a forecast in the decision making process, by providing an economic and financial oriented assessment of the benefits of using a particular forecast system. We have selected a region relevant to the energy stakeholders where the predictions of the EUPORIAS climate service prototype for the energy sector (RESILIENCE) are skillful. In this region, we have applied the weather roulette to compare the overall prediction success of RESILIENCE's predictions and climatology illustrating it as an effective interest rate, an economic term that is easier to understand for energy stakeholders.

  7. Linking Complex Problem Solving and General Mental Ability to Career Advancement: Does a Transversal Skill Reveal Incremental Predictive Validity?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mainert, Jakob; Kretzschmar, André; Neubert, Jonas C.; Greiff, Samuel

    2015-01-01

    Transversal skills, such as complex problem solving (CPS) are viewed as central twenty-first-century skills. Recent empirical findings have already supported the importance of CPS for early academic advancement. We wanted to determine whether CPS could also contribute to the understanding of career advancement later in life. Towards this end, we…

  8. Recent advances in analysis and prediction of Rock Falls, Rock Slides, and Rock Avalanches using 3D point clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abellan, A.; Carrea, D.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Riquelme, A.; Tomas, R.; Royan, M. J.; Vilaplana, J. M.; Gauvin, N.

    2014-12-01

    The acquisition of dense terrain information using well-established 3D techniques (e.g. LiDAR, photogrammetry) and the use of new mobile platforms (e.g. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) together with the increasingly efficient post-processing workflows for image treatment (e.g. Structure From Motion) are opening up new possibilities for analysing, modeling and predicting rock slope failures. Examples of applications at different scales ranging from the monitoring of small changes at unprecedented level of detail (e.g. sub millimeter-scale deformation under lab-scale conditions) to the detection of slope deformation at regional scale. In this communication we will show the main accomplishments of the Swiss National Foundation project "Characterizing and analysing 3D temporal slope evolution" carried out at Risk Analysis group (Univ. of Lausanne) in close collaboration with the RISKNAT and INTERES groups (Univ. of Barcelona and Univ. of Alicante, respectively). We have recently developed a series of innovative approaches for rock slope analysis using 3D point clouds, some examples include: the development of semi-automatic methodologies for the identification and extraction of rock-slope features such as discontinuities, type of material, rockfalls occurrence and deformation. Moreover, we have been improving our knowledge in progressive rupture characterization thanks to several algorithms, some examples include the computing of 3D deformation, the use of filtering techniques on permanently based TLS, the use of rock slope failure analogies at different scales (laboratory simulations, monitoring at glacier's front, etc.), the modelling of the influence of external forces such as precipitation on the acceleration of the deformation rate, etc. We have also been interested on the analysis of rock slope deformation prior to the occurrence of fragmental rockfalls and the interaction of this deformation with the spatial location of future events. In spite of these recent advances

  9. NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena

    2010-01-01

    AIRS (Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder), was launched, in conjunction with AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) on the NASA polar orbiting research satellite EOS (Earth Observing System) Aqua satellite in May 2002 as a next generation atmospheric sounding system. Atmospheric sounders provide information primarily about the vertical distribution of atmospheric temperature and water vapor distribution. This is achieved by measuring outgoing radiation in discrete channels (spectral intervals) which are sensitive primarily to variations of these geophysical parameters. The primary objectives of AIRS/AMSU were to utilize such information in order to improve the skill of numerical weather prediction as well as to measure climate variability and trends. AIRS is a multi-detector array grating spectrometer with 2378 channels covering the spectral range 650/cm (15 microns) to 2660/cm (3.6 microns) with a resolving power (i/a i) of roughly 1200 where a i is the spectral channel bandpass. Atmospheric temperature profile can be determined from channel observations taken within the 15 micron (the long-wave CO2 absorption band) and within the 4.2 micron (the short-wave CO2 absorption band). Radiances in these (and all other) spectral intervals in the infrared are also sensitive to the presence of clouds in the instrument?s field of view (FOV), which are present about 95% of the time. AIRS was designed so as to allow for the ability to produce accurate Quality Controlled atmospheric soundings under most cloud conditions. This was achieved by having 1) extremely low channel noise values in the shortwave portion of the spectrum and 2) a very flat spatial response function within a channel?s FOV. IASI, the high spectral resolution IR interferometer flying on the European METOP satellite, does not contain either of these important characteristics. The AIRS instrument was also designed to be extremely stabile with regard to its spectral radiometric characteristics, which is

  10. The predictability of serum anti-Müllerian level in IVF/ICSI outcomes for patients of advanced reproductive age

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The role of serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) as predictor of in-vitro fertilization outcomes has been much debated. The aim of the present study is to investigate the practicability of combining serum AMH level with biological age as a simple screening method for counseling IVF candidates of advanced reproductive age with potential poor outcomes prior to treatment initiation. Methods A total of 1,538 reference patients and 116 infertile patients aged greater than or equal to 40 years enrolled in IVF/ICSI cycles were recruited in this retrospective analysis. A reference chart of the age-related distribution of serum AMH level for Asian population was first created. IVF/ICSI patients aged greater than or equal to 40 years were then divided into three groups according to the low, middle and high tertiles the serum AMH tertiles derived from the reference population of matching age. The cycle outcomes were analyzed and compared among each individual group. Results For reference subjects aged greater than or equal to 40 years, the serum AMH of the low, middle and high tertiles were equal or lesser than 0.48, 0.49-1.22 and equal or greater than 1.23 ng/mL respectively. IVF/ICSI patients aged greater than or equal to 40 years with AMH levels in the low tertile had the highest cycle cancellation rate (47.6%) with zero clinical pregnancy. The nadir AMH level that has achieved live birth was 0.56 ng/mL, which was equivalent to the 36.4th percentile of AMH level from the age-matched reference group. The optimum cut-off levels of AMH for the prediction of nonpregnancy and cycle cancellation were 1.05 and 0.68 ng/mL, respectively. Conclusions Two criteria: (1) age greater than or equal to 40 years and (2) serum AMH level in the lowest tertile (equal or lesser than 33.3rd percentile) of the matching age group, may be used as markers of futility for counseling IVF/ICSI candidates. PMID:21843363

  11. Integrative sensing and prediction of urban water for sustainable cities (iSPUW)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, D. J.; Fang, N. Z.; Yu, X.; Zink, M.; Gao, J.; Kerkez, B.

    2014-12-01

    We describe a newly launched project in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) area to develop a cyber-physical prototype system that integrates advanced sensing, modeling and prediction of urban water, to support its early adoption by a spectrum of users and stakeholders, and to educate a new generation of future sustainability scientists and engineers. The project utilizes the very high-resolution precipitation and other sensing capabilities uniquely available in DFW as well as crowdsourcing and cloud computing to advance understanding of the urban water cycle and to improve urban sustainability from transient shocks of heavy-to-extreme precipitation under climate change and urbanization. All available water information from observations and models will be fused objectively via advanced data assimilation to produce the best estimate of the state of the uncertain system. Modeling, prediction and decision support tools will be developed in the ensemble framework to increase the information content of the analysis and prediction and to support risk-based decision making.

  12. Feeling the Pulse of the Stratosphere: An Emerging Opportunity for Predicting Continental-Scale Cold Air Outbreaks One Month in Advance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, M.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme weather events such as cold air outbreaks (CAOs) pose great threats to human life and socioeconomic well-being of the modern society. In the past, our capability to predict their occurrences is constrained by the 2-week predictability limit for weather. We demonstrate here for the first time that a rapid increase of air mass transported into the polar stratosphere, referred to as "the pulse of the stratosphere (PULSE)", can be predicted with a useful skill 4-6 weeks in advance by operational forecast models. We further show that the probability of the occurrence of continental-scale CAOs in mid-latitudes increases substantially above the normal condition within a short time period from one week before to 1-2 weeks after the peak day of a PULSE event. In particular, we reveal that the three massive CAOs over North America in January and February of 2014 were preceded by three episodes of extreme mass transport into the polar stratosphere with peak intensities reaching a trillion tons per day, twice of that on an average winter day. Therefore, our capability to predict the PULSEs with operational forecast models, in conjunction with its linkage to continental-scale CAOs, opens up a new opportunity for 30-day forecasts of continental-scale CAOs, such as those occurring over North America in the 2013-14 winter. A real time forecast experiment inaugurated in the winter of 2014-15 has confirmed the feasibility of forecasting CAOs one month in advance.

  13. Prediction of plasma-induced damage distribution during silicon nitride etching using advanced three-dimensional voxel model

    SciTech Connect

    Kuboi, Nobuyuki Tatsumi, Tetsuya; Kinoshita, Takashi; Shigetoshi, Takushi; Fukasawa, Masanaga; Komachi, Jun; Ansai, Hisahiro

    2015-11-15

    The authors modeled SiN film etching with hydrofluorocarbon (CH{sub x}F{sub y}/Ar/O{sub 2}) plasma considering physical (ion bombardment) and chemical reactions in detail, including the reactivity of radicals (C, F, O, N, and H), the area ratio of Si dangling bonds, the outflux of N and H, the dependence of the H/N ratio on the polymer layer, and generation of by-products (HCN, C{sub 2}N{sub 2}, NH, HF, OH, and CH, in addition to CO, CF{sub 2}, SiF{sub 2}, and SiF{sub 4}) as ion assistance process parameters for the first time. The model was consistent with the measured C-F polymer layer thickness, etch rate, and selectivity dependence on process variation for SiN, SiO{sub 2}, and Si film etching. To analyze the three-dimensional (3D) damage distribution affected by the etched profile, the authors developed an advanced 3D voxel model that can predict the time-evolution of the etched profile and damage distribution. The model includes some new concepts for gas transportation in the pattern using a fluid model and the property of voxels called “smart voxels,” which contain details of the history of the etching situation. Using this 3D model, the authors demonstrated metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor SiN side-wall etching that consisted of the main-etch step with CF{sub 4}/Ar/O{sub 2} plasma and an over-etch step with CH{sub 3}F/Ar/O{sub 2} plasma under the assumption of a realistic process and pattern size. A large amount of Si damage induced by irradiated hydrogen occurred in the source/drain region, a Si recess depth of 5 nm was generated, and the dislocated Si was distributed in a 10 nm deeper region than the Si recess, which was consistent with experimental data for a capacitively coupled plasma. An especially large amount of Si damage was also found at the bottom edge region of the metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistors. Furthermore, our simulation results for bulk fin-type field-effect transistor side-wall etching

  14. MicroRNA Expression Profiling of Peripheral Blood Samples Predicts Resistance to First-line Sunitinib in Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma Patients12

    PubMed Central

    Gámez-Pozo, Angelo; Antón-Aparicio, Luis M; Bayona, Cristina; Borrega, Pablo; Gallegos Sancho, María I; García-Domínguez, Rocío; de Portugal, Teresa; Ramos-Vázquez, Manuel; Pérez-Carrión, Ramón; Bolós, María V; Madero, Rosario; Sánchez-Navarro, Iker; Fresno Vara, Juan A; Arranz, Enrique Espinosa

    2012-01-01

    Anti-angiogenic therapy benefits many patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC), but there is still a need for predictive markers that help in selecting the best therapy for individual patients. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) regulate cancer cell behavior and may be attractive biomarkers for prognosis and prediction of response. Forty-four patients with RCC were recruited into this observational prospective study conducted in nine Spanish institutions. Peripheral blood samples were taken before initiation of therapy and 14 days later in patients receiving first-line therapy with sunitinib for advanced RCC. miRNA expression in peripheral blood was assessed using microarrays and L2 boosting was applied to filtered miRNA expression data. Several models predicting poor and prolonged response to sunitinib were constructed and evaluated by binary logistic regression. Blood samples from 38 patients and 287 miRNAs were evaluated. Twenty-eight miRNAs of the 287 were related to poor response and 23 of the 287 were related to prolonged response to sunitinib treatment. Predictive models identified populations with differences in the established end points. In the poor response group, median time to progression was 3.5 months and the overall survival was 8.5, whereas in the prolonged response group these values were 24 and 29.5 months, respectively. Ontology analyses pointed out to cancer-related pathways, such angiogenesis and apoptosis. miRNA expression signatures, measured in peripheral blood, may stratify patients with advanced RCC according to their response to first-line therapy with sunitinib, improving diagnostic accuracy. After proper validation, these signatures could be used to tailor therapy in this setting. PMID:23308047

  15. Serum lactate dehydrogenase predicts prognosis and correlates with systemic inflammatory response in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer after gemcitabine-based chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Shu-Lin; Xu, Li-Tao; Qi, Qi; Geng, Ya-Wen; Chen, Hao; Meng, Zhi-Qiang; Wang, Peng; Chen, Zhen

    2017-01-01

    Serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) concentrations correlate with tumor progression and poor outcome. We evaluated the predictive value of serum LDH level for overall survival (OS) of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer after gemcitabine-based chemotherapy. We retrospectively enrolled 364 patients with locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma who were then allocated to training (n = 139) and validation cohorts (n = 225). We evaluated the association between serum LDH levels and OS as well as with markers of systemic inflammation, including neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte/monocyte ratio (LMR). Kaplan–Meier analyses revealed that low serum LDH levels in the training cohort significantly correlated with longer OS. Multivariate analysis identified the serum LDH levels as an independent prognostic predictor of OS (p = 0.005). Serum LDH levels correlated positively with NLR and PLR and correlated negatively with LMR. Similar results were obtained for the validation cohort, except that multivariate analysis identified the serum LDH level as a significant prognostic predictor and only a statistical trend for OS (p = 0.059). We conclude that serum LDH levels were associated with the systemic inflammatory response and served as a significant prognostic predictor of OS. Serum LDH levels predicted OS in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer after gemcitabine-based palliative chemotherapy. PMID:28345594

  16. Improved NASA-ANOPP Noise Prediction Computer Code for Advanced Subsonic Propulsion Systems. Volume 2; Fan Suppression Model Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kontos, Karen B.; Kraft, Robert E.; Gliebe, Philip R.

    1996-01-01

    The Aircraft Noise Predication Program (ANOPP) is an industry-wide tool used to predict turbofan engine flyover noise in system noise optimization studies. Its goal is to provide the best currently available methods for source noise prediction. As part of a program to improve the Heidmann fan noise model, models for fan inlet and fan exhaust noise suppression estimation that are based on simple engine and acoustic geometry inputs have been developed. The models can be used to predict sound power level suppression and sound pressure level suppression at a position specified relative to the engine inlet.

  17. An Advanced Analytical Chemistry Experiment Using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry, MATLAB, and Chemometrics to Predict Biodiesel Blend Percent Composition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pierce, Karisa M.; Schale, Stephen P.; Le, Trang M.; Larson, Joel C.

    2011-01-01

    We present a laboratory experiment for an advanced analytical chemistry course where we first focus on the chemometric technique partial least-squares (PLS) analysis applied to one-dimensional (1D) total-ion-current gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-TIC) separations of biodiesel blends. Then, we focus on n-way PLS (n-PLS) applied to…

  18. Advanced prediction technique for the low speed aerodynamics of V/STOL aircraft. Volume 1: Technical discussion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beatty, T. D.; Worthey, M. K.

    1984-01-01

    The V/STOL Aircraft Propulsive Effects (VAPE) computerized prediction method is evaluated. The program analyzes viscous effects, various jet, inlet, and Short TakeOff and Landing (STOL) models, and examines the aerodynamic configurations of V/STOL aircraft.

  19. Feeling the Pulse of the Stratosphere: An Emerging Opportunity for Predicting Continental-Scale Cold Air Outbreaks One Month in Advance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Ming

    2016-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as cold air outbreaks (CAOs) pose great threats to human life and socioeconomic well-being of the modern society. In the past, our capability to predict their occurrences is constrained by the 2-week predictability limit for weather. We demonstrate here for the first time that a rapid increase of air mass transported into the polar stratosphere, referred to as "the pulse of the stratosphere (PULSE)", can often be predicted with a useful skill 4-6 weeks in advance by operational forecast models. We further show that the probability of the occurrence of continental-scale CAOs in mid-latitudes increases substantially above the normal condition within a short time period from one week before to 1-2 weeks after the peak day of a PULSE event. In particular, we reveal that the three massive CAOs over North America in January and February of 2014 were preceded by three episodes of extreme mass transport into the polar stratosphere with peak intensities reaching a trillion tons per day, twice of that on an average winter day. Therefore, our capability to predict the PULSEs with operational forecast models, in conjunction with its linkage to continental-scale CAOs, opens up a new opportunity for 30-day forecasts of continental-scale CAOs, such as those occurring over North America in the 2013-14 winter. A real time forecast experiment inaugurated in the winter of 2014-15 has given support to the idea that it is feasible to forecast CAOs one month in advance.

  20. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 1: Theoretical development and application to yearly predictions for selected cities in the United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1986-01-01

    A rain attenuation prediction model is described for use in calculating satellite communication link availability for any specific location in the world that is characterized by an extended record of rainfall. Such a formalism is necessary for the accurate assessment of such availability predictions in the case of the small user-terminal concept of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The model employs the theory of extreme value statistics to generate the necessary statistical rainrate parameters from rain data in the form compiled by the National Weather Service. These location dependent rain statistics are then applied to a rain attenuation model to obtain a yearly prediction of the occurrence of attenuation on any satellite link at that location. The predictions of this model are compared to those of the Crane Two-Component Rain Model and some empirical data and found to be very good. The model is then used to calculate rain attenuation statistics at 59 locations in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) for the 20 GHz downlinks and 30 GHz uplinks of the proposed ACTS system. The flexibility of this modeling formalism is such that it allows a complete and unified treatment of the temporal aspects of rain attenuation that leads to the design of an optimum stochastic power control algorithm, the purpose of which is to efficiently counter such rain fades on a satellite link.

  1. FDA Approval Summary: Nivolumab in Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma After Anti-Angiogenic Therapy and Exploratory Predictive Biomarker Analysis.

    PubMed

    Xu, James Xunhai; Maher, V Ellen; Zhang, Lijun; Tang, Shenghui; Sridhara, Rajeshwari; Ibrahim, Amna; Kim, Geoffrey; Pazdur, Richard

    2017-03-01

    On November 23, 2015, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved nivolumab (OPDIVO, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company) for patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who have received prior anti-angiogenic therapy. The approval was based on efficacy and safety data demonstrated in an open-label, randomized study of 821 patients with advanced RCC who progressed after at least one anti-angiogenic therapy. Patients were randomized to nivolumab or everolimus and followed for disease progression. The primary end point was overall survival. Subsequent therapies, including everolimus for patients who developed progressive disease on the nivolumab arm, were allowed, but no cross-over was permitted. The median overall survival was 25.0 months on the nivolumab arm and 19.6 months on everolimus arm (hazard ratio: 0.73; 95% confidence interval: 0.60-0.89). The confirmed response rates were 21.5% versus 3.9%; median durations of response were 23.0 versus 13.7 months, and median times to response were 3.0 versus 3.7 months in the nivolumab and everolimus arms, respectively. A statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival was not observed in this trial. The safety profile of nivolumab in renal cell cancer was similar to that in other disease settings. However, the incidence of immune-mediated nephritis appeared to be higher in patients with RCC. The Oncologist 2017;22:311-317 IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The overall benefit/risk profile demonstrated in trial CA209025 supported the approval of nivolumab as an additional treatment option for patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma after anti-angiogenic therapy. The use of nivolumab in patients who had received vascular endothelial growth factor-targeted therapy resulted in a 5.4 month improvement in median overall survival compared with the everolimus arm. This difference is statistically significant and clinically meaningful.

  2. The C-reactive protein/albumin ratio predicts overall survival of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer.

    PubMed

    Wu, Mengwan; Guo, Jing; Guo, Lihong; Zuo, Qiang

    2016-09-01

    Recent studies have demonstrated the prognostic value of the C-reactive protein/albumin (CRP/Alb) ratio in cancer. However, the role of the CRP/Alb ratio in advanced pancreatic cancer (PC) has not been examined. A retrospective study of 233 patients with advanced PC was conducted. We investigated the relationship between the CRP/Alb ratio, clinicopathological variables, and overall survival (OS). The optimal cutoff point of the CRP/Alb ratio was 0.54. A higher CRP/Alb ratio was significantly associated with an elevated neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (P < 0.001) and higher modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) (P < 0.001). Using univariate analyses, we found that the age (P = 0.009), disease stage (P < 0.001), NLR (P < 0.001), mGPS (P < 0.001), and CRP/Alb ratio (P < 0.001) were significant predictors of OS. Patients with a higher CRP/Alb ratio had a worse OS than patients with a lower CRP/Alb ratio (hazard ratio (HR) 3.619; 95 % CI 2.681-4.886; P < 0.001). However, the CRP/Alb ratio was identified as the only inflammation-based parameter with an independent prognostic ability in the multivariate analyses (P < 0.001). The pretreatment CRP/Alb ratio is a superior prognostic and therapeutic predictor of OS in advanced PC.

  3. Commercial-Scale Performance Predictions for High-Temperature Electrolysis Plants Coupled to Three Advanced Reactor Types

    SciTech Connect

    M. G. McKellar; J. E. O'Brien; J. S. Herring

    2007-09-01

    This report presents results of system analyses that have been developed to assess the hydrogen production performance of commercial-scale high-temperature electrolysis (HTE) plants driven by three different advanced reactor – power-cycle combinations: a high-temperature helium cooled reactor coupled to a direct Brayton power cycle, a supercritical CO2-cooled reactor coupled to a direct recompression cycle, and a sodium-cooled fast reactor coupled to a Rankine cycle. The system analyses were performed using UniSim software. The work described in this report represents a refinement of previous analyses in that the process flow diagrams include realistic representations of the three advanced reactors directly coupled to the power cycles and integrated with the high-temperature electrolysis process loops. In addition, this report includes parametric studies in which the performance of each HTE concept is determined over a wide range of operating conditions. Results of the study indicate that overall thermal-to- hydrogen production efficiencies (based on the low heating value of the produced hydrogen) in the 45 - 50% range can be achieved at reasonable production rates with the high-temperature helium cooled reactor concept, 42 - 44% with the supercritical CO2-cooled reactor and about 33 - 34% with the sodium-cooled reactor.

  4. P11: 18FDG-PET/CT for early prediction of response to first line platinum chemotherapy in advanced thymic epithelial tumors

    PubMed Central

    Palmieri, Giovannella; Ottaviano, Margaret; Del Vecchio, Silvana; Segreto, Sabrina; Tucci, Irene; Damiano, Vincenzo

    2015-01-01

    Background To investigate the value of the metabolic tumor response assessed with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET), compared with clinicobiological markers, to predict the response disease to first line platinum based chemotherapy in advanced thymic epithelial tumors (TETs). Methods Twenty patients with diagnosis of TET and stage of disease III and IV sec, Masaoka-Koga, were retrospectively included in this monocentric study. Different pre-treatment clinical, biological and pathological parameters, including histotype sec, WHO 2004 and stage of disease sec, Masaoka-Koga were assessed. Tumor glucose metabolism at baseline and its change after the first line platinum based chemotherapy (from 4 to 6 cycles) were assessed using FDG-PET, moreover the response disease was assessed using total body CT scan for the evaluation of RECIST criteria 1.1. Results Twelve patients had an objective response to the first line platinum based chemotherapy according RECIST criteria 1.1 and all of them started with a SUVmax at baseline major than 5, indeed the other eight patients, non-responders to chemotherapy, had a SUVmax at baseline minor than 5. Conclusions It is important to define the chemosensitivity of advanced TETs early. Combining bio-pathological parameters with the metabolism at baseline assessed with FDG-PET can help the physician to early predict the probability of obtaining a disease response to first line platinum based chemotherapy. The SUVmax cut off of 5 at 18FDG-PET/CT performed at baseline treatment might be a new parameter for choosing the most powerful first line of chemotherapy. Given these results, further prospective studies are needed to establish a new first line therapy in advanced TETs with a low SUVmax at baseline, non-responders to conventional chemotherapy.

  5. Recent advances, and unresolved issues, in the application of computational modelling to the prediction of the biological effects of nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Winkler, David A

    2016-05-15

    Nanomaterials research is one of the fastest growing contemporary research areas. The unprecedented properties of these materials have meant that they are being incorporated into products very quickly. Regulatory agencies are concerned they cannot assess the potential hazards of these materials adequately, as data on the biological properties of nanomaterials are still relatively limited and expensive to acquire. Computational modelling methods have much to offer in helping understand the mechanisms by which toxicity may occur, and in predicting the likelihood of adverse biological impacts of materials not yet tested experimentally. This paper reviews the progress these methods, particularly those QSAR-based, have made in understanding and predicting potentially adverse biological effects of nanomaterials, and also the limitations and pitfalls of these methods.

  6. Numerical Modeling for Springback Predictions by Considering the Variations of Elastic Modulus in Stamping Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Hyunok; Kimchi, Menachem

    2011-08-01

    This paper presents a numerical modeling approach for predicting springback by considering the variations of elastic modulus on springback in stamping AHSS. Various stamping tests and finite-element method (FEM) simulation codes were used in this study. The cyclic loading-unloading tensile tests were conducted to determine the variations of elastic modulus for dual-phase (DP) 780 sheet steel. The biaxial bulge test was used to obtain plastic flow stress data. The non-linear reduction of elastic modulus for increasing the plastic strain was formulated by using the Yoshida model that was implemented in FEM simulations for springback. To understand the effects of material properties on springback, experiments were conducted with a simple geometry such as U-shape bending and the more complex geometry such as the curved flanging and S-rail stamping. Different measurement methods were used to confirm the final part geometry. Two different commercial FEM codes, LS-DYNA and DEFORM, were used to compare the experiments. The variable elastic modulus improved springback predictions in U-shape bending and curved flanging tests compared to FEM with the constant elastic modulus. However, in S-rail stamping tests, both FEM models with the isotropic hardening model showed limitations in predicting the sidewall curl of the S-rail part after springback. To consider the kinematic hardening and Bauschinger effects that result from material bending-unbending in S-rail stamping, the Yoshida model was used for FEM simulation of S-rail stamping and springback. The FEM predictions showed good improvement in correlating with experiments.

  7. TU-G-303-00: Radiomics: Advances in the Use of Quantitative Imaging Used for Predictive Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    2015-06-15

    ‘Radiomics’ refers to studies that extract a large amount of quantitative information from medical imaging studies as a basis for characterizing a specific aspect of patient health. Radiomics models can be built to address a wide range of outcome predictions, clinical decisions, basic cancer biology, etc. For example, radiomics models can be built to predict the aggressiveness of an imaged cancer, cancer gene expression characteristics (radiogenomics), radiation therapy treatment response, etc. Technically, radiomics brings together quantitative imaging, computer vision/image processing, and machine learning. In this symposium, speakers will discuss approaches to radiomics investigations, including: longitudinal radiomics, radiomics combined with other biomarkers (‘pan-omics’), radiomics for various imaging modalities (CT, MRI, and PET), and the use of registered multi-modality imaging datasets as a basis for radiomics. There are many challenges to the eventual use of radiomics-derived methods in clinical practice, including: standardization and robustness of selected metrics, accruing the data required, building and validating the resulting models, registering longitudinal data that often involve significant patient changes, reliable automated cancer segmentation tools, etc. Despite the hurdles, results achieved so far indicate the tremendous potential of this general approach to quantifying and using data from medical images. Specific applications of radiomics to be presented in this symposium will include: the longitudinal analysis of patients with low-grade gliomas; automatic detection and assessment of patients with metastatic bone lesions; image-based monitoring of patients with growing lymph nodes; predicting radiotherapy outcomes using multi-modality radiomics; and studies relating radiomics with genomics in lung cancer and glioblastoma. Learning Objectives: Understanding the basic image features that are often used in radiomic models. Understanding

  8. Predictive lymphatic mapping: a method for mapping lymphatic channels in patients with advanced unilateral lymphedema using indocyanine green lymphography.

    PubMed

    Mihara, Makoto; Seki, Yukio; Hara, Hisako; Iida, Takuya; Oka, Aiko; Kikuchi, Kazuki; Narushima, Mitsunaga; Haragi, Makiko; Furniss, Dominic; Hin-Lun, Lawrence; Mitsui, Kito; Murai, Noriyuki; Koshima, Isao

    2014-01-01

    In severe lymphedema, indocyanine green lymphography cannot be used to map lymphatic channels before lymphaticovenular anastomosis (LVA) because linear lymphatics cannot be detected in a severely affected leg. Here, we describe a new method, which we refer to as predictive lymphatic mapping, to predict the location of lymphatics for anastomosis in unilateral lymphedema, thereby improving surgical accuracy and efficiency. The approach consists of marking anatomical landmarks and joining selected landmarks with fixed lines. The distance from these fixed lines to lymphatic channels mapped by indocyanine green lymphography in the unaffected leg is then measured, scaled up based on the difference in circumference between the legs, and transposed to the affected leg. To date, we have used this method in 5 cases of unilateral or asymmetric lymphedema of the lower extremities. In no cases have we failed to find a lymphatic channel suitable for LVA within a 2-cm incision. These results suggest that predictive lymphatic mapping is a useful additional tool for surgeons performing LVA under local anesthesia, which will help to improve the accuracy of incisions and the efficiency of surgery.

  9. Evaluation of Advanced Reactive Surface Area Estimates for Improved Prediction of Mineral Reaction Rates in Porous Media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckingham, L. E.; Mitnick, E. H.; Zhang, S.; Voltolini, M.; Yang, L.; Steefel, C. I.; Swift, A.; Cole, D. R.; Sheets, J.; Kneafsey, T. J.; Landrot, G.; Anovitz, L. M.; Mito, S.; Xue, Z.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; DePaolo, D.

    2015-12-01

    CO2 sequestration in deep sedimentary formations is a promising means of reducing atmospheric CO2 emissions but the rate and extent of mineral trapping remains difficult to predict. Reactive transport models provide predictions of mineral trapping based on laboratory mineral reaction rates, which have been shown to have large discrepancies with field rates. This, in part, may be due to poor quantification of mineral reactive surface area in natural porous media. Common estimates of mineral reactive surface area are ad hoc and typically based on grain size, adjusted several orders of magnitude to account for surface roughness and reactivity. This results in orders of magnitude discrepancies in estimated surface areas that directly translate into orders of magnitude discrepancies in model predictions. Additionally, natural systems can be highly heterogeneous and contain abundant nano- and micro-porosity, which can limit connected porosity and access to mineral surfaces. In this study, mineral-specific accessible surface areas are computed for a sample from the reservoir formation at the Nagaoka pilot CO2 injection site (Japan). Accessible mineral surface areas are determined from a multi-scale image analysis including X-ray microCT, SEM QEMSCAN, XRD, SANS, and SEM-FIB. Powder and flow-through column laboratory experiments are performed and the evolution of solutes in the aqueous phase is tracked. Continuum-scale reactive transport models are used to evaluate the impact of reactive surface area on predictions of experimental reaction rates. Evaluated reactive surface areas include geometric and specific surface areas (eg. BET) in addition to their reactive-site weighted counterparts. The most accurate predictions of observed powder mineral dissolution rates were obtained through use of grain-size specific surface areas computed from a BET-based correlation. Effectively, this surface area reflects the grain-fluid contact area, or accessible surface area, in the powder

  10. Optimal tumor shrinkage predicts long-term outcome in advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with target therapy

    PubMed Central

    He, Xiaobo; Zhang, Yang; Ma, Yuxiang; Zhou, Ting; Zhang, Jianwei; Hong, Shaodong; Sheng, Jin; Zhang, Zhonghan; Yang, Yunpeng; Huang, Yan; Zhang, Li; Zhao, Hongyun

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are used as standard therapies for advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with EGFR mutation positive. Because these targeted therapies could cause tumor necrosis and shrinkage, the purpose of the study is to search for a value of optimal tumor shrinkage as an appropriate indicator of outcome for advanced NSCLC. A total of 88 NSCLC enrollees of 3 clinical trials (IRESSA registration clinical trial, TRUST study and ZD6474 study), who received Gefitinib (250 mg, QD), Erlotinib (150 mg, QD), and ZD6474 (100 mg, QD), respectively, during December 2003 and October 2007, were retrospectively analyzed. The response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST) were used to identify responders, who had complete response (CR) or partial responses (PR) and nonresponders who had stable disease (SD) or progressive disease (PD). Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was used to find the optimal tumor shrinkage as an indicator for tumor therapeutic outcome. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to compare the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) between responders and nonresponders stratified based on radiologic criteria. Among the 88 NSCLC patients, 26 were responders and 62 were nonresponders based on RECIST 1.0. ROC indicated that 8.32% tumor diameter shrinkage in the sum of the longest tumor diameter (SLD) was the cutoff point of tumor shrinkage outcomes, resulting in 46 responders (≤8.32%) and 42 nonresponders (≥8.32%). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that (1) the responders (≤8.32%) and nonresponders (≥ −8.32%) were significantly different in median PFS (13.40 vs 1.17 months, P < 0.001) and OS (19.80 vs 7.90 months, P < 0.001) and (2) –8.32% in SLD could be used as the optimal threshold for PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 8.11, 95% CI, 3.75 to 17.51, P < 0.001) and OS

  11. Uncertainty quantification approaches for advanced reactor analyses.

    SciTech Connect

    Briggs, L. L.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2009-03-24

    The original approach to nuclear reactor design or safety analyses was to make very conservative modeling assumptions so as to ensure meeting the required safety margins. Traditional regulation, as established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission required conservatisms which have subsequently been shown to be excessive. The commission has therefore moved away from excessively conservative evaluations and has determined best-estimate calculations to be an acceptable alternative to conservative models, provided the best-estimate results are accompanied by an uncertainty evaluation which can demonstrate that, when a set of analysis cases which statistically account for uncertainties of all types are generated, there is a 95% probability that at least 95% of the cases meet the safety margins. To date, nearly all published work addressing uncertainty evaluations of nuclear power plant calculations has focused on light water reactors and on large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) analyses. However, there is nothing in the uncertainty evaluation methodologies that is limited to a specific type of reactor or to specific types of plant scenarios. These same methodologies can be equally well applied to analyses for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and to liquid metal reactors, and they can be applied to steady-state calculations, operational transients, or severe accident scenarios. This report reviews and compares both statistical and deterministic uncertainty evaluation approaches. Recommendations are given for selection of an uncertainty methodology and for considerations to be factored into the process of evaluating uncertainties for advanced reactor best-estimate analyses.

  12. Prediction of geomagnetic reversals using low-dimensional dynamical models and advanced data assimilation: a feasibility study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fournier, A.; Morzfeld, M.; Hulot, G.

    2013-12-01

    For a suitable choice of parameters, the system of three ordinary differential equations (ODE) presented by Gissinger [1] was shown to exhibit chaotic reversals whose statistics compared well with those from the paleomagnetic record. In order to further assess the geophysical relevance of this low-dimensional model, we resort to data assimilation methods to calibrate it using reconstructions of the fluctuation of the virtual axial dipole moment spanning the past 2 millions years. Moreover, we test to which extent a properly calibrated model could possibly be used to predict a reversal of the geomagnetic field. We calibrate the ODE model to the geomagnetic field over the past 2 Ma using the SINT data set of Valet et al. [2]. To this end, we consider four data assimilation algorithms: the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a variational method and two Monte Carlo (MC) schemes, prior importance sampling and implicit sampling. We observe that EnKF performs poorly and that prior importance sampling is inefficient. We obtain the most accurate reconstructions of the geomagnetic data using implicit sampling with five data points per assimilation sweep (of duration 5 kyr). The variational scheme performs equally well, but it does not provide us with quantitative information about the uncertainty of the estimates, which makes this method difficult to use for robust prediction under uncertainty. A calibration of the model using the PADM2M data set of Ziegler et al. [3] confirms these findings. We study the predictive capability of the ODE model using statistics computed from synthetic data experiments. For each experiment, we produce 2 Myr of synthetic data (with error levels similar to the ones found in real data), then calibrate the model to this record and then check if this calibrated model can correctly and reliably predict a reversal within the next 10 kyr (say). By performing 100 such experiments, we can assess how reliably our calibrated model can predict a (non

  13. Cancer-related inflammation as predicting tool for treatment outcome in locally advanced and metastatic non-small cell lung cancer

    PubMed Central

    Korsic, Marta; Mursic, Davorka; Samarzija, Miroslav; Cucevic, Branka; Roglic, Mihovil; Jakopovic, Marko

    2016-01-01

    Background Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths and the non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) represents 80% of all cases. In most cases when diagnosed, it is in locally advanced or metastatic stage, when platinum based doublet chemotherapy is the established therapeutic option for majority of the patients. Predictive factors to filter the patients who will benefit the most from the chemotherapy are not clearly defined. Objective of this study was to explore predictive value of pre-treatment C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrinogen and their interaction, for the response to the frontline chemotherapy. Methods In this retrospective cohort study 170 patients with locally advanced and metastatic NSCLC were included. Relationship between baseline level of CRP and fibrinogen and response to the frontline chemotherapy was assessed. Results We found that pre-treatment CRP and fibrinogen values were statistically significantly correlated. Chemotherapy and CRP, fibrinogen, and their interaction were independently significantly associated with disease control rate at re-evaluation. There was statistically significant difference in median pre-treatment CRP level between the patients with disease control or progression at re-evaluation, 13.8 vs. 30.0 mg/L respectively, P=0.026. By Johnson-Neyman technique we found that in patients with initial fibrinogen value below 3.5 g/L, CRP level was significantly associated with disease control or progression of the disease. Above this fibrinogen value the association of CRP and disease control was lost. Conclusions The findings from this study support the growing evidence of inflammation and cancer relationship, where elevated pre-treatment level of CRP has negative predictive significance on the NSCLC frontline chemotherapy response. PMID:27499936

  14. Slow Crack Growth Analysis of Advanced Structural Ceramics Under Combined Loading Conditions: Damage Assessment in Life Prediction Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2000-01-01

    Slow crack growth analysis was performed with three different loading histories including constant stress-rate/constant stress-rate testing (Case 1 loading), constant stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case 2 loading), and cyclic stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case 2 loading). Strength degradation due to slow crack growth and/or damage accumulation was determined numerically as a function of percentage of interruption time between the two loading sequences for a given loading history. The numerical solutions were examined with the experimental data determined at elevated temperatures using four different advanced ceramic materials, two silicon nitrides, one silicon carbide and one alumina for the Case 1 loading history, and alumina for the Case 3 loading history. The numerical solutions were in reasonable agreement with the experimental data, indicating that notwithstanding some degree of creep deformation presented for some test materials slow crack growth was a governing mechanism associated with failure for all the test materials.

  15. Slow Crack Growth Analysis of Advanced Structural Ceramics Under Combined Loading Conditions: Damage Assessment in Life Prediction Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2000-01-01

    Slow crack growth analysis was performed with three different loading histories including constant stress-rate/constant stress-rate testing (Case I loading), constant stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case II loading), and cyclic stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case III loading). Strength degradation due to slow crack growth arid/or damage accumulation was determined numerically as a Function of percentage of interruption time between the two loading sequences for a given loading history. The numerical solutions were examined with the experimental data determined at elevated temperatures using four different advanced ceramic materials, two silicon nitrides, one silicon carbide and one alumina for the Case I loading history, and alumina for the Case II loading history. The numerical solutions were in reasonable agreement with the experimental data, indicating that notwithstanding some degree of creep deformation presented for some test materials slow crack growth was a governing mechanism associated with failure for all the test material&

  16. Slow Crack Growth Analysis of Advanced Structural Ceramics Under Combined Loading Conditions: Damage Assessment in Life Prediction Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, S. R.; Gyekenyesi, J. P.

    2001-01-01

    Slow crack growth analysis was performed with three different loading histories including constant stress- rate/constant stress-rate testing (Case I loading), constant stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case II loading), and cyclic stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case III loading). Strength degradation due to slow crack growth and/or damage accumulation was determined numerically as a function of percentage of interruption time between the two loading sequences for a given loading history. The numerical solutions were examined with the experimental data determined at elevated temperatures using four different advanced ceramic materials, two silicon nitrides, one silicon carbide and one alumina for the Case I loading history, and alumina for the Case II loading history. The numerical solutions were in reasonable agreement with the experimental data, indicating that notwithstanding some degree of creep deformation presented for some test materials slow crack growth was a governing mechanism associated with failure for all the rest materials.

  17. The eTOX data-sharing project to advance in silico drug-induced toxicity prediction.

    PubMed

    Cases, Montserrat; Briggs, Katharine; Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Pognan, François; Marc, Philippe; Kleinöder, Thomas; Schwab, Christof H; Pastor, Manuel; Wichard, Jörg; Sanz, Ferran

    2014-11-14

    The high-quality in vivo preclinical safety data produced by the pharmaceutical industry during drug development, which follows numerous strict guidelines, are mostly not available in the public domain. These safety data are sometimes published as a condensed summary for the few compounds that reach the market, but the majority of studies are never made public and are often difficult to access in an automated way, even sometimes within the owning company itself. It is evident from many academic and industrial examples, that useful data mining and model development requires large and representative data sets and careful curation of the collected data. In 2010, under the auspices of the Innovative Medicines Initiative, the eTOX project started with the objective of extracting and sharing preclinical study data from paper or pdf archives of toxicology departments of the 13 participating pharmaceutical companies and using such data for establishing a detailed, well-curated database, which could then serve as source for read-across approaches (early assessment of the potential toxicity of a drug candidate by comparison of similar structure and/or effects) and training of predictive models. The paper describes the efforts undertaken to allow effective data sharing intellectual property (IP) protection and set up of adequate controlled vocabularies) and to establish the database (currently with over 4000 studies contributed by the pharma companies corresponding to more than 1400 compounds). In addition, the status of predictive models building and some specific features of the eTOX predictive system (eTOXsys) are presented as decision support knowledge-based tools for drug development process at an early stage.

  18. Advancing hydrometeorological prediction capabilities through standards-based cyberinfrastructure development: The community WRF-Hydro modeling system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    gochis, David; Parodi, Antonio; Hooper, Rick; Jha, Shantenu; Zaslavsky, Ilya

    2013-04-01

    The need for improved assessments and predictions of many key environmental variables is driving a multitude of model development efforts in the geosciences. The proliferation of weather and climate impacts research is driving a host of new environmental prediction model development efforts as society seeks to understand how climate does and will impact key societal activities and resources and, in turn, how human activities influence climate and the environment. This surge in model development has highlighted the role of model coupling as a fundamental activity itself and, at times, a significant bottleneck in weather and climate impacts research. This talk explores some of the recent activities and progress that has been made in assessing the attributes of various approaches to the coupling of physics-based process models for hydrometeorology. One example modeling system that is emerging from these efforts is the community 'WRF-Hydro' modeling system which is based on the modeling architecture of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). An overview of the structural components of WRF-Hydro will be presented as will results from several recent applications which include the prediction of flash flooding events in the Rocky Mountain Front Range region of the U.S. and along the Ligurian coastline in the northern Mediterranean. Efficient integration of the coupled modeling system with distributed infrastructure for collecting and sharing hydrometeorological observations is one of core themes of the work. Specifically, we aim to demonstrate how data management infrastructures used in the US and Europe, in particular data sharing technologies developed within the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System and UNIDATA, can interoperate based on international standards for data discovery and exchange, such as standards developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium and adopted by GEOSS. The data system we envision will help manage WRF-Hydro prediction model data flows, enabling

  19. Advances in heat conduction models and approaches for the prediction of lattice thermal conductivity of dielectric materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikia, Banashree

    2017-03-01

    An overview of predominant theoretical models used for predicting the thermal conductivities of dielectric materials is given. The criteria used for different theoretical models are explained. This overview highlights a unified theory based on temperature-dependent thermal-conductivity theories, and a drifting of the equilibrium phonon distribution function due to normal three-phonon scattering processes causes transfer of phonon momentum to (a) the same phonon modes (KK-S model) and (b) across the phonon modes (KK-H model). Estimates of the lattice thermal conductivities of LiF and Mg2Sn for the KK-H model are presented graphically.

  20. Advanced prediction technique for the low speed aerodynamics of V/STOL aircraft. Volume 2: User's manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beatty, T. D.; Worthey, M. K.

    1984-01-01

    A computerized prediction method known as the Vought V/STOL Aircraft Propulsive Effects computer program (VAPE) for propulsive induced forces and moments in transition and Short TakeOff and Landing (STOL) flight is improved and evaluated. The VAPE program is capable of evaluating: (1) effects of relative wind about an aircraft, (2) effects of propulsive lift jet entrainment, vorticity and flow blockage, (3) effects of engine inlet flow on the aircraft flow field, (4) engine inlet forces and moments including inlet separation, (5) ground effects in the STOL region of flight, and (6) viscous effects on lifting surfaces.

  1. Accurate X-Ray Spectral Predictions: An Advanced Self-Consistent-Field Approach Inspired by Many-Body Perturbation Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Yufeng; Vinson, John; Pemmaraju, Sri; Drisdell, Walter S.; Shirley, Eric L.; Prendergast, David

    2017-03-01

    Constrained-occupancy delta-self-consistent-field (Δ SCF ) methods and many-body perturbation theories (MBPT) are two strategies for obtaining electronic excitations from first principles. Using the two distinct approaches, we study the O 1 s core excitations that have become increasingly important for characterizing transition-metal oxides and understanding strong electronic correlation. The Δ SCF approach, in its current single-particle form, systematically underestimates the pre-edge intensity for chosen oxides, despite its success in weakly correlated systems. By contrast, the Bethe-Salpeter equation within MBPT predicts much better line shapes. This motivates one to reexamine the many-electron dynamics of x-ray excitations. We find that the single-particle Δ SCF approach can be rectified by explicitly calculating many-electron transition amplitudes, producing x-ray spectra in excellent agreement with experiments. This study paves the way to accurately predict x-ray near-edge spectral fingerprints for physics and materials science beyond the Bethe-Salpether equation.

  2. Advanced Models for Prediction of High Altitude Aero-Thermal Loads of a Space Re-entry Vehicle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Votta, R.; Schettino, A.; Bonfiglioli, A.

    2011-05-01

    The analysis of the rarefaction effects in predicting the main aero-thermal loads of a Space re-entry vehicle is presented. It is well known that the Navier-Stokes equations fail in rarefied regimes and other approaches must be used. In the present paper different configurations have been simulated by using the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method. Moreover, slip flow boundary conditions have been implemented in a Navier-Stokes code in order to extend the validity of the continuum approach to the transitional flow regime. Finally, bridging formulas for high altitude aerodynamics of winged bodies have been used. Firstly, two simple geometries have been analysed, specifically designed to study the phenomenon of shock wave boundary layer interaction: a hollow cylinder flare, for which some experiments are available; and a blunt-nosed flat plate/flap model designed and tested at the Italian Aerospace Research Centre. The other configurations taken into account are, respectively, an experimental winged re-entry vehicle and a capsule, for which global aerodynamic coefficients and local wall heating have been determined with different approaches. The Navier-Stokes code with slip flow boundary conditions has shown good predicting capabilities compared with experiments in the hollow cylinder flare case; however, for the winged vehicle and capsule cases, the CFD results are not fully satisfactory and the Monte Carlo method remains the most reliable approach, together with the bridging formula, that provides good results for the aerodynamic coefficients.

  3. Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, B.; Corbett, D. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Kemp, A.; Lin, N.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

    2013-12-01

    Future inundation of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. Through ongoing, collaborative research we are employing new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea level rise along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic variability. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers, and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. We produced new, high-resolution proxy sea-level reconstructions to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset spans the alternation between the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' and 'Little Ice Age'. Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from four study areas (Connecticut, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, future storm surges will be superimposed on background sea

  4. Correlation of predicted and measured thermal stresses on an advanced aircraft structure with dissimilar materials. [hypersonic heating simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    Additional information was added to a growing data base from which estimates of finite element model complexities can be made with respect to thermal stress analysis. The manner in which temperatures were smeared to the finite element grid points was examined from the point of view of the impact on thermal stress calculations. The general comparison of calculated and measured thermal stresses is guite good and there is little doubt that the finite element approach provided by NASTRAN results in correct thermal stress calculations. Discrepancies did exist between measured and calculated values in the skin and the skin/frame junctures. The problems with predicting skin thermal stress were attributed to inadequate temperature inputs to the structural model rather than modeling insufficiencies. The discrepancies occurring at the skin/frame juncture were most likely due to insufficient modeling elements rather than temperature problems.

  5. Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, B. P.; Donnelly, J. P.; Corbett, D. R.; Kemp, A.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

    2012-12-01

    Future inundation of the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon both sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. In this proposal, we will employ new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea-level rise along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts has increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic distribution. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. Here, we produce new high resolution proxy data of sea-level and temperature to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset will span the alternation between the "Medieval Climate Anomaly" and "Little Ice Age". Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from six study areas (Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia and Atlantic and Gulf coasts of Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, in the future, the resultant

  6. NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel

    2010-01-01

    AIRS is a precision state of the art High Spectral Resolution Multi-detector IR grating array spectrometer that was launched into a polar orbit on EOS Aqua in 2002. AIRS measures most of the infra-red spectrum with very low noise from 650/cm to 2660/cm with a resolving power of 2400 at a spatial resolution of 13 km. The objectives of AIRS were to perform accurate determination of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in up to 90% partial cloud cover conditions for the purpose of improving numerical weather prediction and understanding climate processes. AIRS data has also been used to determine accurate trace gas profiles. A brief overview of the retrieval methodology used to analyze AIRS observations under partial cloud cover will be presented and sample results will be shown from the weather and climate perspectives.

  7. Development of Predictive Models for the Degradation of Halogenated Disinfection Byproducts during the UV/H2O2 Advanced Oxidation Process.

    PubMed

    Chuang, Yi-Hsueh; Parker, Kimberly M; Mitch, William A

    2016-10-18

    Previous research has demonstrated that the reverse osmosis and advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) used to purify municipal wastewater to potable quality have difficulty removing low molecular weight halogenated disinfection byproducts (DBPs) and industrial chemicals. Because of the wide range of chemical characteristics of these DBPs, this study developed methods to predict their degradation within the UV/H2O2 AOP via UV direct photolysis and hydroxyl radical ((•)OH) reaction, so that DBPs most likely to pass through the AOP could be predicted. Among 26 trihalomethanes, haloacetonitriles, haloacetaldehydes, halonitromethanes and haloacetamides, direct photolysis rate constants (254 nm) varied by ∼3 orders of magnitude, with rate constants increasing with Br and I substitution. Quantum yields varied little (0.12-0.59 mol/Einstein), such that rate constants were driven by the orders of magnitude variation in molar extinction coefficients. Quantum chemical calculations indicated a strong correlation between molar extinction coefficients and decreasing energy gaps between the highest occupied and lowest unoccupied orbitals (i.e., ELUMO-EHOMO). Rate constants for 37 trihalomethanes, haloacetonitriles, haloacetaldehydes, halonitromethanes, haloacetamides, and haloacetic acids with (•)OH measured by gamma radiolysis spanned 4 orders of magnitude. Based on these rate constants, a quantitative structure-reactivity relationship model (Group Contribution Method) was developed which predicted (•)OH rate constants for 5 additional halogenated compounds within a factor of 2. A kinetics model combining the molar extinction coefficients, quantum yields and (•)OH rate constants predicted experimental DBP loss in a lab-scale UV/H2O2 AOP well. Highlighting the difficulty associated with degrading these DBPs, at the 500-1000 mJ/cm(2) UV fluence applied in potable reuse trains, 50% removal would be achieved generally only for compounds with several -Br or -I substituents

  8. Skin autofluorescence, a measure of cumulative metabolic stress and advanced glycation end products, predicts mortality in hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Meerwaldt, Robbert; Hartog, Jasper W L; Graaff, Reindert; Huisman, Roel J; Links, Thera P; den Hollander, Nynke C; Thorpe, Susan R; Baynes, John W; Navis, Gerjan; Gans, Rijk O B; Smit, Andries J

    2005-12-01

    Tissue advanced glycation end products (AGE) are a measure of cumulative metabolic stress and trigger cytokines driven inflammatory reactions. AGE are thought to contribute to the chronic complications of diabetes and ESRD. Tissue autofluorescence is related to the accumulation of AGE. Therefore, skin autofluorescence (AF) may provide prognostic information on mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Skin AF was measured noninvasively with an AF reader at baseline in 109 HD patients. Overall and cardiovascular mortality was monitored prospectively during a period of 3 yr. The AF reader was validated against AGE contents in skin biopsies from 29 dialysis patients. Forty-two of the 109 (38.5%) HD patients died. Cox regression analysis showed that AF was an independent predictor of overall and cardiovascular mortality (for overall mortality odds ratio [OR] 3.9), as were pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD; OR 3.1), C-reactive protein (OR 1.1), and serum albumin (OR 0.3). Multivariate analysis revealed that 65% of the variance in AF could be attributed to the independent effects of age, dialysis and renal failure duration, presence of diabetes, triglycerides levels, and C-reactive protein. AF was also independently linked to the presence of CVD at baseline (OR 8.8; P < 0.001). AF correlated with collagen-linked fluorescence (r = 0.71, P < 0.001), pentosidine (r = 0.75, P < 0.001), and carboxy(m)ethyllysine (both r = 0.45, P < 0.01). Skin AF is a strong and independent predictor of mortality in ESRD. This supports a role for AGE as a contributor to mortality and CVD and warrants interventions specifically aimed at AGE accumulation.

  9. Predictive Method for Correct Identification of Archaeological Charred Grape Seeds: Support for Advances in Knowledge of Grape Domestication Process

    PubMed Central

    Ucchesu, Mariano; Orrù, Martino; Grillo, Oscar; Venora, Gianfranco; Paglietti, Giacomo; Ardu, Andrea; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

    2016-01-01

    The identification of archaeological charred grape seeds is a difficult task due to the alteration of the morphological seeds shape. In archaeobotanical studies, for the correct discrimination between Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris and Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera grape seeds it is very important to understand the history and origin of the domesticated grapevine. In this work, different carbonisation experiments were carried out using a hearth to reproduce the same burning conditions that occurred in archaeological contexts. In addition, several carbonisation trials on modern wild and cultivated grape seeds were performed using a muffle furnace. For comparison with archaeological materials, modern grape seed samples were obtained using seven different temperatures of carbonisation ranging between 180 and 340ºC for 120 min. Analysing the grape seed size and shape by computer vision techniques, and applying the stepwise linear discriminant analysis (LDA) method, discrimination of the wild from the cultivated charred grape seeds was possible. An overall correct classification of 93.3% was achieved. Applying the same statistical procedure to compare modern charred with archaeological grape seeds, found in Sardinia and dating back to the Early Bronze Age (2017–1751 2σ cal. BC), allowed 75.0% of the cases to be identified as wild grape. The proposed method proved to be a useful and effective procedure in identifying, with high accuracy, the charred grape seeds found in archaeological sites. Moreover, it may be considered valid support for advances in the knowledge and comprehension of viticulture adoption and the grape domestication process. The same methodology may also be successful when applied to other plant remains, and provide important information about the history of domesticated plants. PMID:26901361

  10. Predictive Method for Correct Identification of Archaeological Charred Grape Seeds: Support for Advances in Knowledge of Grape Domestication Process.

    PubMed

    Ucchesu, Mariano; Orrù, Martino; Grillo, Oscar; Venora, Gianfranco; Paglietti, Giacomo; Ardu, Andrea; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

    2016-01-01

    The identification of archaeological charred grape seeds is a difficult task due to the alteration of the morphological seeds shape. In archaeobotanical studies, for the correct discrimination between Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris and Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera grape seeds it is very important to understand the history and origin of the domesticated grapevine. In this work, different carbonisation experiments were carried out using a hearth to reproduce the same burning conditions that occurred in archaeological contexts. In addition, several carbonisation trials on modern wild and cultivated grape seeds were performed using a muffle furnace. For comparison with archaeological materials, modern grape seed samples were obtained using seven different temperatures of carbonisation ranging between 180 and 340ºC for 120 min. Analysing the grape seed size and shape by computer vision techniques, and applying the stepwise linear discriminant analysis (LDA) method, discrimination of the wild from the cultivated charred grape seeds was possible. An overall correct classification of 93.3% was achieved. Applying the same statistical procedure to compare modern charred with archaeological grape seeds, found in Sardinia and dating back to the Early Bronze Age (2017-1751 2σ cal. BC), allowed 75.0% of the cases to be identified as wild grape. The proposed method proved to be a useful and effective procedure in identifying, with high accuracy, the charred grape seeds found in archaeological sites. Moreover, it may be considered valid support for advances in the knowledge and comprehension of viticulture adoption and the grape domestication process. The same methodology may also be successful when applied to other plant remains, and provide important information about the history of domesticated plants.

  11. Weight and cost forecasting for advanced manned space vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Raymond

    1989-01-01

    A mass and cost estimating computerized methology for predicting advanced manned space vehicle weights and costs was developed. The user friendly methology designated MERCER (Mass Estimating Relationship/Cost Estimating Relationship) organizes the predictive process according to major vehicle subsystem levels. Design, development, test, evaluation, and flight hardware cost forecasting is treated by the study. This methodology consists of a complete set of mass estimating relationships (MERs) which serve as the control components for the model and cost estimating relationships (CERs) which use MER output as input. To develop this model, numerous MER and CER studies were surveyed and modified where required. Additionally, relationships were regressed from raw data to accommodate the methology. The models and formulations which estimated the cost of historical vehicles to within 20 percent of the actual cost were selected. The result of the research, along with components of the MERCER Program, are reported. On the basis of the analysis, the following conclusions were established: (1) The cost of a spacecraft is best estimated by summing the cost of individual subsystems; (2) No one cost equation can be used for forecasting the cost of all spacecraft; (3) Spacecraft cost is highly correlated with its mass; (4) No study surveyed contained sufficient formulations to autonomously forecast the cost and weight of the entire advanced manned vehicle spacecraft program; (5) No user friendly program was found that linked MERs with CERs to produce spacecraft cost; and (6) The group accumulation weight estimation method (summing the estimated weights of the various subsystems) proved to be a useful method for finding total weight and cost of a spacecraft.

  12. The lymphocyte–monocyte ratio predicts tumor response and survival in patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer who received definitive chemoradiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xuemei; Li, Minghuan; Zhao, Fen; Zhu, Yingming; Luo, Yijun; Kong, Li; Zhu, Hui; Zhang, Yan; Shi, Fang; Yu, Jinming

    2017-01-01

    Background The lymphocyte–monocyte ratio (LMR), a simple biomarker that can reflect the antitumor immune response of the host, has been associated with patient prognosis in several solid tumors. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether LMR can predict clinical tumor response and prognosis in patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who received definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Patients and methods A total of 162 advanced ESCC patients treated at our institution between January 2012 and December 2013 were retrospectively recruited for analysis. Patients were treated with a platinum-based bimodal cytotoxic drug chemotherapy and concurrent radiation therapy. The LMR was calculated from blood counts in samples collected prior to treatment initiation. The predictive value of LMR for clinical tumor response and prognosis was examined. Results The LMR before CRT was significantly higher in 48 patients who achieved clinical complete response (CR) compared to that in patients who did not achieve clinical CR (4.89±1.17 vs 3.87±1.29, P<0.001). Compared to their matched counterparts, patients in the high LMR group (LMR >4.02) showed a good clinical tumor response (P<0.05). A significant independent association between a high pretreatment LMR and better outcomes was identified in a multivariate analysis for progression-free survival (PFS; hazard ratio [HR]=2.17; P<0.001) and overall survival (OS; HR=2.02; P=0.002). Conclusion In ESCC patients, a high LMR before treatment, which indicates a robust host immune system, is associated with both a good clinical tumor response after definitive CRT and favorable prognosis. PMID:28243122

  13. Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Address the U.S. Priorities and Advance Capabilities for Arctic Climate Modeling and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Cassano, J. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Nijssen, B.; Osinski, R.; Zeng, X.; Brunke, M.; Duvivier, A.; Hamman, J.; Hossainzadeh, S.; Hughes, M.; Seefeldt, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic is undergoing some of the most coordinated rapid climatic changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth, including the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Earth System Models (ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in ESMs generally remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that relate to a combination of coarse resolution, inadequate parameterizations, under-represented processes and a limited knowledge of physical interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the ESM limitations in simulating observed variability and trends in arctic surface climate. RASM is a high resolution, pan-Arctic coupled climate model with the sea ice and ocean model components configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12o and the atmosphere and land hydrology model components at 50 km resolution, which are all coupled at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled ESM, which due to the constraints from boundary conditions facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with ESMs. The overall goal of RASM is to address key requirements published in the Navy Arctic Roadmap: 2014-2030 and in the Implementation Plan for the National Strategy for the Arctic Region, regarding the need for advanced modeling capabilities for operational forecasting and strategic climate predictions through 2030. The main science objectives of RASM are to advance understanding and model representation of critical physical processes and feedbacks of importance to sea ice thickness and area distribution. RASM results are presented to quantify relative contributions by (i) resolved processes and feedbacks as well as (ii) sensitivity to space dependent sub-grid parameterizations to better

  14. Potential predictive role of chemotherapy-induced changes of soluble CD40 ligand in untreated advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Azzariti, Amalia; Brunetti, Oronzo; Porcelli, Letizia; Graziano, Giusi; Iacobazzi, Rosa Maria; Signorile, Michele; Scarpa, Aldo; Lorusso, Vito; Silvestris, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Pancreas ductal adenocarcinoma lacks predictive biomarkers. CD40 is a member of the tumor necrosis factor superfamily. CD40–sCD40L interaction is considered to contribute to the promotion of tumor cell growth and angiogenesis. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of serum sCD40L as a predictor in metastatic pancreatic cancer. We evaluated 27 consecutive pancreatic cancer patients treated with FOLFIRINOX (21 patients) or gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel combination (six patients). The sCD40L level was measured in serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at baseline, at first evaluation (all patients), and at time to progression (18 patients). The radiological response was evaluated according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors, Version 1.1. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare pre–post treatment sCD40L levels with respect to clinical response, while Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used for the correlation between sCD40L and CA19.9 pre- and post-treatment. The Kruskal–Wallis test was also conducted for further comparisons. We observed a statistically significant reduction in the sCD40L level after 3 months of treatment in patients with partial response (11,718.05±7,097.13 pg/mL vs 4,689.42±5,409.96 pg/mL; P<0.01). Conversely, in patients with progressive disease, the biomarker statistically increased in the same time (9,351.51±7,356.91 pg/mL vs 22,282.92±11,629.35 pg/mL; P<0.01). This trend of sCD40L was confirmed in 18 patients at time to progression after the first evaluation. No differences were recorded within the stable disease group. Moreover, there was a positive correlation between the sCD40L and CA19.9 pre–post treatment variation percentage (Pearson’s correlation coefficient =0.52; P<0.05). Our data suggest a possible predictive role of sCD40L in pancreatic cancer patients, similar to CA19.9. PMID:27555786

  15. CA 125 regression after two completed cycles of chemotherapy: lack of prediction for long-term survival in patients with advanced ovarian cancer

    PubMed Central

    Peters-Engl, C; Obermair, A; Heinzl, H; Buxbaum, P; Sevelda, P; Medl, M

    1999-01-01

    The prognostic influence of CA 125 regression between the time point before surgery and after two completed courses of chemotherapy was studied in 210 patients with advanced ovarian cancer, and was compared to other well established prognostic factors. CA 125 blood samples were collected preoperatively (CA 125 pre) and 3 months after surgery (CA 125 3 mo) (at the beginning of the 3rd cycle of chemotherapy). The parameter CA 125 regression defined as log10 (CA 125 3 mo/CA 125 pre) was used for statistical analysis. In a survival analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model, CA 125 regression (P = 0.0001), residual tumour (P = 0.0001), age (P = 0.0095) and grading (P = 0.044) were independent variables, whereas stage of disease, histology, ascites and type of surgery failed to retain significance. Using log10 (CA 125 3 mo/CA 125 pre) as simple covariate in a Cox model showed a hazard ratio of 1.70 (95% confidence interval 1.32–2.19, P = 0.0001). However, a detailed analysis of the interaction of time with the prognostic factor CA 125 regression on survival revealed a strong time-dependent effect with a hazard ratio of more than 6 immediately after two courses of chemotherapy, whereas within approximately 1 year the hazard ratio for the surviving patients dropped quickly to the neutral level of 1. In summary, CA 125 regression is an independent prognostic factor for survival of women with advanced ovarian cancer and allows an identification of a high-risk population among patients with advanced ovarian cancer. However, the discriminating power of serial CA 125 for long-term survival seems to be temporary and prediction of individual patients outcome is far less precise. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaign PMID:10574252

  16. The potential predictive role of nuclear NHERF1 expression in advanced gastric cancer patients treated with epirubicin/oxaliplatin/capecitabine first line chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Mangia, Anita; Caldarola, Lucia; Dell'Endice, Stefania; Scarpi, Emanuela; Saragoni, Luca; Monti, Manlio; Santini, Daniele; Brunetti, Oronzo; Simone, Giovanni; Silvestris, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    Cellular resistance in advanced gastric cancer (GC) might be related to function of multidrug resistance (MDR) proteins. The adaptor protein NHERF1 (Na+/H+ exchanger regulatory factor) is an important player in cancer progression for a number of solid malignancies, even if its role to develop drug resistance remains uncertain. Herein, we aimed to analyze the potential association between NHERF1 expression and P-gp, sorcin and HIF-1α MDR-related proteins in advanced GC patients treated with epirubicin/oxaliplatin/capecitabine (EOX) chemotherapy regimen, and its relation to response. Total number of 28 untreated patients were included into the study. Expression and subcellular localization of all proteins were assessed by immunohistochemistry on formalin-fixed paraffin embedded tumor samples. We did not found significant association between NHERF1 expression and the MDR-related proteins. A trend was observed between positive cytoplasmic NHERF1 (cNHERF1) expression and negative nuclear HIF-1α (nHIF-1α) expression (68.8% versus 31.3% respectively, P = 0.054). However, cytoplasmic P-gp (cP-gp) expression was positively correlated with both cHIF-1α and sorcin expression (P = 0.011; P = 0.002, respectively). Interestingly, nuclear NHERF1 (nNHERF1) staining was statistically associated with clinical response. In detail, 66.7% of patients with high nNHERF1 expression had a disease control rate, while 84.6% of subjects with negative nuclear expression of the protein showed progressive disease (P = 0.009). Multivariate analysis confirmed a significant correlation between nNHERF1 and clinical response (OR 0.06, P = 0.019). These results suggest that nuclear NHERF1 could be related to resistance to the EOX regimen in advanced GC patients, identifying this marker as a possible independent predictive factor. PMID:26126066

  17. Serum levels of IL-6 and IL-1β can predict the efficacy of gemcitabine in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer

    PubMed Central

    Mitsunaga, S; Ikeda, M; Shimizu, S; Ohno, I; Furuse, J; Inagaki, M; Higashi, S; Kato, H; Terao, K; Ochiai, A

    2013-01-01

    Background: With this study, we sought to characterise the impact of pro-inflammatory cytokines on the outcomes of gemcitabine monotherapy (GEM) in patients with pancreatic cancer (PC). Methods: Treatment-naive patients with advanced PC and no obvious infections were eligible for enrolment. All of the patients were scheduled to undergo systemic chemotherapy. Serum pro-inflammatory cytokines were measured using an electro-chemiluminescence assay method before chemotherapy. High cytokine levels were defined as values greater than the median. Clinical data were collected prospectively. Results: Sixty patients who received GEM were included in the analysis. High IL-6 and IL-1β levels were poor prognostic factors for overall survival in a multivariate analysis (P=0.011 and P=0.048, respectively). Patients with both a high IL-6 level and a high IL-1β level exhibited shortened overall and progression-free survival, a reduction in the tumour control rate, and a high dose intensity of GEM compared with patients with low levels of both IL-6 and IL-1β. Conclusion: The serum levels of IL-6 and IL-1β predict the efficacy of GEM in patients with advanced PC. PMID:23591198

  18. Fibroblast growth factor receptor 4 gene (FGFR4) 388Arg allele predicts prolonged survival and platinum sensitivity in advanced ovarian cancer.

    PubMed

    Marmé, Frederik; Hielscher, Thomas; Hug, Sarah; Bondong, Sandra; Zeillinger, Robert; Castillo-Tong, Dan Cacsire; Sehouli, Jalid; Braicu, Ioana; Vergote, Ignace; Isabella, Cadron; Mahner, Sven; Ferschke, Irmgard; Rom, Joachim; Sohn, Christof; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Altevogt, Peter

    2012-08-15

    FGFR4 has been shown to play an important role in the etiology and progression of solid tumors. A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) within the FGFR4 gene has previously been linked to prognosis and response to chemotherapy in breast cancer and other malignancies. This study evaluates the relevance of this SNP in advanced ovarian cancer. FGFR4-genotype was analyzed in 236 patients recruited as part of the OVCAD project. Genotyping was performed on germ-line DNA using a TaqMan based genotyping assay. Results were correlated with clinicopathological variables and survival. The FGFR4 388Arg genotype was significantly associated with prolonged progression-free and overall survival (univariate: HR 0.68, p = 0.017; HR 0.49, p = 0.005; multivariate: HR 0.69, p = 0.025; HR 0.49, p = 0.006) though the positive prognostic value was restricted to patients without postoperative residual tumor. Indeed, there was a significant interaction between FGFR4 genotype and residual tumor for overall survival. Furthermore, the FGFR4 388Arg genotype significantly correlated with platinum sensitivity in the same subgroup (multivariate OR 3.81 p = 0.004). FGFR4 Arg388Gly genotype is an independent and strong context specific prognostic factor in patients with advanced ovarian cancer and could be used to predict platinum-sensitivity.

  19. Advances in toponomics drug discovery: Imaging cycler microscopy correctly predicts a therapy method of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Schubert, Walter

    2015-01-01

    An imaging cycler microscope (ICM) is a fully automated (epi)fluorescence microscope which overcomes the spectral resolution limit resulting in parameter- and dimension-unlimited fluorescence imaging. This enables the spatial resolution of large molecular systems with their emergent topological properties (toponome) in morphologically intact cells and tissues displaying thousands of multi protein assemblies at a time. The resulting combinatorial geometry of these systems has been shown to be key for in-vivo/in-situ detection of lead proteins controlling protein network topology and (dys)function: If lead proteins are blocked or downregulated the corresponding disease protein network disassembles. Here, correct therapeutic predictions are exemplified for ALS. ICM drug target studies have discovered an 18-dimensional cell surface molecular system in ALS-PBMC with a lead drug target protein, whose therapeutic downregulation is now reported to show statistically significant effect with stop of disease progression in one third of the ALS patients. Together, this clinical and the earlier experimental validations of the ICM approach indicate that ICM readily discovers in vivo robustness nodes of disease with lead proteins controlling them. Breaking in vivo robustness nodes using drugs against their lead proteins is likely to overcome current high drug attrition rates. © 2015 The Author. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc, on behalf of ISAC. PMID:25869332

  20. Advances in toponomics drug discovery: Imaging cycler microscopy correctly predicts a therapy method of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Schubert, Walter

    2015-08-01

    An imaging cycler microscope (ICM) is a fully automated (epi)fluorescence microscope which overcomes the spectral resolution limit resulting in parameter- and dimension-unlimited fluorescence imaging. This enables the spatial resolution of large molecular systems with their emergent topological properties (toponome) in morphologically intact cells and tissues displaying thousands of multi protein assemblies at a time. The resulting combinatorial geometry of these systems has been shown to be key for in-vivo/in-situ detection of lead proteins controlling protein network topology and (dys)function: If lead proteins are blocked or downregulated the corresponding disease protein network disassembles. Here, correct therapeutic predictions are exemplified for ALS. ICM drug target studies have discovered an 18-dimensional cell surface molecular system in ALS-PBMC with a lead drug target protein, whose therapeutic downregulation is now reported to show statistically significant effect with stop of disease progression in one third of the ALS patients. Together, this clinical and the earlier experimental validations of the ICM approach indicate that ICM readily discovers in vivo robustness nodes of disease with lead proteins controlling them. Breaking in vivo robustness nodes using drugs against their lead proteins is likely to overcome current high drug attrition rates.

  1. Researches on the Nankai trough mega thrust earthquake seismogenic zones using real time observing systems for advanced early warning systems and predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2015-04-01

    We recognized the importance of real time monitoring on Earthquakes and Tsunamis Based on lessons learned from 2004 Sumatra Earthquake/Tsunamis and 2011 East Japan Earthquake. We deployed DONET1 and are developing DONET2 as real time monitoring systems which are dense ocean floor networks around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone Southwestern Japan. Total observatories of DONE1 and DONET2 are 51 observatories equipped with multi kinds of sensors such as the accelerometer, broadband seismometer, pressure gauge, difference pressure gauge, hydrophone and thermometer in each observatory. These systems are indispensable for not only early warning of Earthquakes/ Tsunamis, but also researches on broadband crustal activities around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone for predictions. DONET1 detected offshore tsunamis 15 minutes earlier than onshore stations at the 2011 East Japan earthquake/tsunami. Furthermore, DONET1/DONET2 will be expected to monitor slow events such as low frequency tremors and slow earthquakes for the prediction researches. Finally, the integration of observations and simulation researches will contribute to estimate of seismic stage changes from the inter-seismic to pre seismic stage. I will introduce applications of DONET1/DONET2 data and advanced simulation researches.

  2. Early Prediction of Outcome in Advanced Head-and-Neck Cancer Based on Tumor Blood Volume Alterations During Therapy: A Prospective Study

    SciTech Connect

    Cao Yue Popovtzer, Aron; Li, Diana; Chepeha, Douglas B.; Moyer, Jeffrey S.; Prince, Mark E.; Worden, Francis; Teknos, Theodoros; Bradford, Carol; Mukherji, Suresh K.; Eisbruch, Avraham

    2008-12-01

    Purpose: To assess whether alterations in tumor blood volume (BV) and blood flow (BF) during the early course of chemo-radiotherapy (chemo-RT) for head-and-neck cancer (HNC) predict treatment outcome. Methods and Materials: Fourteen patients receiving concomitant chemo-RT for nonresectable, locally advanced HNC underwent dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI scans before therapy and 2 weeks after initiation of chemo-RT. The BV and BF were quantified from DCE MRI. Preradiotherapy BV and BF, as well as their changes during RT, were evaluated separately in the primary gross tumor volume (GTV) and nodal GTV for association with outcomes. Results: At a median follow-up of 10 months (range, 5-27 months), 9 patients had local-regional controlled disease. One patient had regional failure, 3 had local failures, and 1 had local-regional failure. Reduction in tumor volume after 2 weeks of chemo-RT did not predict for local control. In contrast, the BV in the primary GTV after 2 weeks of chemo-RT was increased significantly in the local control patients compared with the local failure patients (p < 0.03). Conclusions: Our data suggest that an increase in available primary tumor blood for oxygen extraction during the early course of RT is associated with local control, thus yielding a predictor with potential to modify treatment. These findings require validation in larger studies.

  3. The Need for Accurate Risk Prediction Models for Road Mapping, Shared Decision Making and Care Planning for the Elderly with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease.

    PubMed

    Stryckers, Marijke; Nagler, Evi V; Van Biesen, Wim

    2016-11-01

    As people age, chronic kidney disease becomes more common, but it rarely leads to end-stage kidney disease. When it does, the choice between dialysis and conservative care can be daunting, as much depends on life expectancy and personal expectations of medical care. Shared decision making implies adequately informing patients about their options, and facilitating deliberation of the available information, such that decisions are tailored to the individual's values and preferences. Accurate estimations of one's risk of progression to end-stage kidney disease and death with or without dialysis are essential for shared decision making to be effective. Formal risk prediction models can help, provided they are externally validated, well-calibrated and discriminative; include unambiguous and measureable variables; and come with readily applicable equations or scores. Reliable, externally validated risk prediction models for progression of chronic kidney disease to end-stage kidney disease or mortality in frail elderly with or without chronic kidney disease are scant. Within this paper, we discuss a number of promising models, highlighting both the strengths and limitations physicians should understand for using them judiciously, and emphasize the need for external validation over new development for further advancing the field.

  4. A scoring system basing pathological parameters to predict regional lymph node metastasis after preoperative chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer: implication for local excision

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiao-Jie; Chi, Pan; Lin, Hui-Ming; Lu, Xing-Rong; Huang, Ying; Xu, Zong-Bin; Huang, Sheng-Hui; Sun, Yan-Wu; Ye, Dao-Xiong; Yu, Qian

    2016-01-01

    Local excision is an alternative to radical surgery that is indicated in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) who have a good response to chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Regional lymph node status is a major uncertainty during local excision of LARC following CRT. We retrospectively reviewed clinicopathologic variables for 244 patients with LARC who were treated at our institute between December 2000 and December 2013 in order to identify independent predictors of regional lymph node metastasis. Multivariate analysis of the training sample demonstrated that histopathologic type, tumor size, and the presence of lymphovascular invasion were significant predictors of regional nodal metastasis. These variables were then incorporated into a scoring system in which the total scores were calculated based on the points assigned for each parameter. The area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic analysis was 0.750, and the cutoff value for the total score to predict regional nodal metastasis was 7.5. The sensitivity of our system was 73.2% and the specificity was 69.4%. The sensitivity was 77.8% and the specificity was 51.2% when the scoring system was applied to the testing sample. Using this system, we could accurately predict regional nodal metastases in LARC patients following CRT, which may be useful for stratifying patients in clinical trials and selecting potential candidates for organ-sparing surgery following CRT for LARC PMID:27489356

  5. High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction (HD(CP)2): Large Eddy Simulation Study Over Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dipankar, A.; Stevens, B. B.; Zängl, G.; Pondkule, M.; Brdar, S.

    2014-12-01

    The effect of clouds on large scale dynamics is represented in climate models through parameterization of various processes, of which the parameterization of shallow and deep convection are particularly uncertain. The atmospheric boundary layer, which controls the coupling to the surface, and which defines the scale of shallow convection, is typically 1 km in depth. Thus, simulations on a O(100 m) grid largely obviate the need for such parameterizations. By crossing this threshold of O(100m) grid resolution one can begin thinking of large-eddy simulation (LES), wherein the sub-grid scale parameterization have a sounder theoretical foundation. Substantial initiatives have been taken internationally to approach this threshold. For example, Miura et al., 2007 and Mirakawa et al., 2014 approach this threshold by doing global simulations, with (gradually) decreasing grid resolution, to understand the effect of cloud-resolving scales on the general circulation. Our strategy, on the other hand, is to take a big leap forward by fixing the resolution at O(100 m), and gradually increasing the domain size. We believe that breaking this threshold would greatly help in improving the parameterization schemes and reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions. To take this forward, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research has initiated a project on HD(CP)2 that aims for a limited area LES at resolution O(100 m) using the new unified modeling system ICON (Zängl et al., 2014). In the talk, results from the HD(CP)2 evaluation simulation will be shown that targets high resolution simulation over a small domain around Jülich, Germany. This site is chosen because high resolution HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment took place in this region from 1.04.2013 to 31.05.2013, in order to critically evaluate the model. Nesting capabilities of ICON is used to gradually increase the resolution from the outermost domain, which is forced from the COSMO-DE data, to the

  6. Human antigen R as a predictive marker for response to gemcitabine-based chemotherapy in advanced cisplatin-resistant urothelial cancer

    PubMed Central

    Miyata, Yasuyoshi; Mitsunari, Kensuke; Akihiro, Asai; Watanabe, Shin-Ichi; Matsuo, Tomohiro; Ohba, Kojiro; Sakai, Hideki

    2017-01-01

    In patients with advanced urothelial cancer (UC), a combination of cisplatin (CDDP) and gemcitabine (GEM) is the most commonly used first-line systematic chemotherapy regimen. Although no standard regime for the treatment of CDDP-resistant UC has been established, GEM-based regimens are frequently used in these patients. In other types of cancer, human antigen R (HuR) status in cancer cells is closely associated with patient response to GEM. The aim of the present study was to establish the predictive potential of HuR expression for disease progression and survival in patients with UC who were treated with GEM-based regimens as a first or second-line chemotherapy. A total of 50 patients with advanced UC were enrolled in the current study. As first-line chemotherapy, methotrexate, vinblastine, epirubicin and CDDP (MVEC) combination therapy and GEM and CDDP combination therapy were administered in 34 (68.0%) and 16 patients (32.0%), respectively. Following progression, 45 patients (90.0%) were treated with combined GEM and paclitaxel therapy, and 5 patients (10.0%) were treated with GEM monotherapy. Cytoplasmic and nuclear HuR expression was evaluated using immunohistochemical techniques. The associations between HuR expression levels and local tumor response and treatment outcomes were analyzed. In first-line chemotherapy, no anticancer effects were observed to be significantly associated with nuclear or cytoplasmic HuR expression. In second-line chemotherapy nuclear HuR expression also exhibited no significant association with anticancer effects; however, the local tumor response was significantly improved if positive cytoplasmic HuR expression was present (P=0.002). Multivariate analyses revealed that cytoplasmic HuR expression levels were a significant predictive marker for longer OS (hazard ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.09–0.56; P=0.001). No significant association was observed between nuclear HuR expression levels and the overall survival. Therefore

  7. Development and validation of advanced CFD models for detailed predictions of void distribution in a BWR bundle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neykov, Boyan

    , it is important to extend validity of the current correlations for the lift coefficients to higher void (gas) phase fractions. After investigating the underlying physics and analyzing a large amount of experimental data, an improved model for lift force at different void fraction levels, including large bubbles and slug flow regime, is proposed. The model is implemented in STAR-CD and validated. The validation of the models is performed against five different experiments, characterized by different geometries at different boundary conditions. Comparison with the already existing models in STAR-CD code is performed and it is found that the newly integrated force models for drag and lift forces leads to more accurate void distribution predictions.

  8. FRAPTRAN Predictability of High Burnup Advanced Fuel Performance: Analysis of the CABRI CIP0-1 and CIP0-2 Experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Del Barrio, M.T.; Herranz, L.E.

    2007-07-01

    Adequacy of analytical tools to estimate advanced high burnup fuel during a power pulse need to be soundly proven. Most of models in codes dealing with transient are extrapolations of those developed for lower irradiations. In addition, lack of open information prevents often a proper account of mechanical properties of new advanced cladding material. These circumstances make experimental programs on high burnup fuel performance an indispensable tool to enhance safety codes predictability through building up sound databases on which models can be extended or developed and on which suitable code performance can be proven. The experiments CIP0-1 and CIP0-2, carried out on 2002 in the CABRI reactor, can be seen as reference tests to investigate high burnup fuel response to RIA transients. Fuel rods of up to 75 GWd/tU (average rod burnup) encapsulated in advanced cladding materials (ZIRLO and M5) were submitted to power pulses of about 30 ms of half maximum width that injected 90-100 cal/g after 1.2 s. None of the rodlets failed during the experiments, but they underwent deformation that was experimentally determined. The FRAPTRAN code has been used for the analysis of these RIA tests. The fuel rod characterization necessary for FRAPTRAN at the end of the base irradiation, prior to the transient, was provided by FRAPCON-3. An investigation of major deviations of fuel rod characterization at the end of the base irradiation has highlighted that thermal uncertainties could result in outstanding discrepancies in FGR estimates. Transient comparison with the available data shows that FRAPTRAN presents a relatively good agreement in permanent clad hoop strain and overestimates significantly the axial elongation of the cladding. The potential effect of approximations made in describing the cladding mechanical behavior, the fuel-to-clad relative movement and the pre-transient gap width, have been all discussed. Given existing uncertainties, a conclusive statement could not be

  9. HER-2/Neu overexpression does not predict response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy or prognosticate survival in patients with locally advanced breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Tulbah, Asma M; Ibrahim, Ezzeldin M; Ezzat, Adnan A; Ajarim, Dahish S; Rahal, Mohammed M; El Weshi, Amr N; Sorbris, Ralph

    2002-01-01

    Data about the prognostic and predictive value of HER-2/neu overexpression in patients with locally advanced breast cancer (LABC) treated with primary chemotherapy is limited. Therefore, this retrospective study was performed to examine this issue. Fifty-four consecutive patients with LABC were prospectively managed using a uniform multimodality approach. Response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and survival were examined against HER-2/neu overexpression as determined by an immunohistochemistry method on formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded samples of breast cancer using the commercially available, United States Food and Drug Administration-approved kit HercepTest (Dako Corp, Carpinteria, CA). The number of patients in each HercepTest immunostaining group were as follows; 0 in 12 patients (22%), 1+ in 8 (15%), 2+ in 12 (22%), and 3+ in 22 (41%). None of the clinical variables was significantly associated with HER-2/neu expression. After primary therapy, 22% of patients attained clinical complete response and an additional 70% achieved clinical partial response with an overall response rate of 92% (95% confidence interval: 100% to 79%). There was no significant correlation between clinical response and HercepTest positivity (p = 0.85). Of 52 patients with complete pathological data, there was no significant difference in HercepTest status between those who attained complete pathological response (46%) and those who did not (38%) (p = 0.74). Moreover, there was no significant difference in disease-free survival (75% vs 84%, [p = 0.26]) or overall survival (81% vs 84% [p = 0.31]) between those who overexpressed HER-2/neu and those with negative HercepTest, respectively. In patients with LABC, HER-2/neu overexpression determined using HercepTest assay and according to the manufacturer's approved guidelines failed to demonstrate a predictive or a prognostic role.

  10. Predictive Role of the Number of 18F-FDG-Positive Lymph Nodes Detected by PET/CT for Pre-Treatment Evaluation of Locally Advanced Gastric Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xin; Wei, Yuzhe; Xue, Yingwei; Lu, Peiou; Yu, Lijuan; Shen, Baozhong

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value of the numbers of metabolically positive lymph nodes (MPLN) detected by 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) in patients with locally advanced gastric cancer (LAGC). Methods We retrospectively analyzed the records of 50 patients with LAGC (stage T2-T4) who had undergone pre-operative PET/CT examination and laparotomy (total gastrectomy, n = 11; subtotal gastrectomy, n = 13; distal gastrectomy, n = 22; and bypass with gastrojejunstomy, n = 4). The numbers of MPLN were determined by combining visual observations with semi-quantitative measurements of the maximized standardized uptake value (SUVmax). Performance was investigated in terms of predicting post-surgical overall survival (OS). Results The median post-surgical OS was 32.57 months (range 3.0-94 months). The numbers of MPLN were moderately correlated with the numbers of histological positive LN (r = 0.694, p = 0.001). In univariate analyses, the numbers of MPLN (≤ 2 vs. ≥3), PET/CT LN (positivity vs. negativity), SUVmax of LN (< 2.8 vs. ≥ 2.8), TNM stage (I, II vs. III, IV), and surgery type (R0 vs. non-R0) were significantly associated with OS. In multivariate analysis, surgery type (R0 vs. non-R0) and numbers of MPLN (≤ 2 vs. ≥ 3) were both independent factors for poor OS. Conclusions This explored study indicates that the number of MPLN could provide additional information for LAGC prognosis. Patients with MPLNs ≥ 3 may be at the risk of the more bad outcomes, and the further clinical trials are needed. PMID:27936109

  11. Predictive assessment in pharmacogenetics of XRCC1 gene on clinical outcomes of advanced lung cancer patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Zhengrong; Li, Jiao; Hu, Ruiqi; Jiao, Yang; Han, Yingying; Weng, Qiang

    2015-01-01

    Published data have shown inconsistent results about the pharmacogenetics of XRCC1 gene on clinical outcomes of advanced lung cancer patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy. This meta-analysis aimed to summarize published findings and provide more reliable association. A total of 53 eligible studies including 7433 patients were included. Patients bearing the favorable TrpTrp and TrpArg genotypes of Arg194Trp were more likely to better response rates to platinum-based chemotherapy compared to those with the unfavorable ArgArg genotype (TrpTrp+TrpArg vs. ArgArg: odds ratio (OR) = 2.02, 95% CI, 1.66–2.45). The GlnGln and GlnArg genotypes of Arg399Gln were significantly associated with the poorer response rates compared to those with the ArgArg genotype (GlnGln +GlnArg vs. ArgArg: OR = 0.68, 95% CI, 0.54–0.86). The GlnGln genotype might be more closely associated with shorter survival time and higher risks of death for patients (GlnGln vs. ArgArg: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.14, 95% CI, 0.75–1.75). Our cumulative meta-analyses indicated a distinct apparent trend toward a better response rate for Arg194Trp, but a poorer response rate in Arg399Gln. These findings indicate a predictive role of XRCC1 polymorphisms in clinical outcomes. The use of XRCC1 polymorphisms as predictive factor of clinical outcomes in personalized chemotherapy treatment requires further verification from large well-designed pharmacogenetics studies. PMID:26585370

  12. Optimizing Training Population Size and Genotyping Strategy for Genomic Prediction Using Association Study Results and Pedigree Information. A Case of Study in Advanced Wheat Breeding Lines

    PubMed Central

    Jahoor, Ahmed; Orabi, Jihad; Andersen, Jeppe R.; Janss, Luc L.; Jensen, Just

    2017-01-01

    Wheat breeding programs generate a large amount of variation which cannot be completely explored because of limited phenotyping throughput. Genomic prediction (GP) has been proposed as a new tool which provides breeding values estimations without the need of phenotyping all the material produced but only a subset of it named training population (TP). However, genotyping of all the accessions under analysis is needed and, therefore, optimizing TP dimension and genotyping strategy is pivotal to implement GP in commercial breeding schemes. Here, we explored the optimum TP size and we integrated pedigree records and genome wide association studies (GWAS) results to optimize the genotyping strategy. A total of 988 advanced wheat breeding lines were genotyped with the Illumina 15K SNPs wheat chip and phenotyped across several years and locations for yield, lodging, and starch content. Cross-validation using the largest possible TP size and all the SNPs available after editing (~11k), yielded predictive abilities (rGP) ranging between 0.5–0.6. In order to explore the Training population size, rGP were computed using progressively smaller TP. These exercises showed that TP of around 700 lines were enough to yield the highest observed rGP. Moreover, rGP were calculated by randomly reducing the SNPs number. This showed that around 1K markers were enough to reach the highest observed rGP. GWAS was used to identify markers associated with the traits analyzed. A GWAS-based selection of SNPs resulted in increased rGP when compared with random selection and few hundreds SNPs were sufficient to obtain the highest observed rGP. For each of these scenarios, advantages of adding the pedigree information were shown. Our results indicate that moderate TP sizes were enough to yield high rGP and that pedigree information and GWAS results can be used to greatly optimize the genotyping strategy. PMID:28081208

  13. The value of forceps biopsy and core needle biopsy in prediction of pathologic complete remission in locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

    PubMed

    Tang, Jing-Hua; An, Xin; Lin, Xi; Gao, Yuan-Hong; Liu, Guo-Chen; Kong, Ling-Heng; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Ding, Pei-Rong

    2015-10-20

    Patients with pathological complete remission (pCR) after treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) have better long-term outcome and may receive conservative treatments in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). The study aimed to evaluate the value of forceps biopsy and core needle biopsy in prediction of pCR in LARC treated with nCRT. In total, 120 patients entered this study. Sixty-one consecutive patients received preoperative forceps biopsy during endoscopic examination. Ex vivo core needle biopsy was performed in resected specimens of another 43 consecutive patients. The accuracy for ex vivo core needle biopsy was significantly higher than forceps biopsy (76.7% vs. 36.1%; p < 0.001). The sensitivity for ex vivo core needle biopsy was significantly lower in good responder (TRG 3) than poor responder (TRG ≤ 2) (52.9% vs. 94.1%; p = 0.017). In vivo core needle biopsy was further performed in 16 patients with good response. Eleven patients had residual cancer cells in final resected specimens, among whom 4 (36.4%) patients were biopsy positive. In conclusion, routine forceps biopsy was of limited value in identifying pCR after nCRT. Although core needle biopsy might further identify a subset of patients with residual cancer cells, the accuracy was not substantially increased in good responders.

  14. Radiation dose to the tongue and velopharynx predicts acoustic-articulatory changes after chemo-IMRT treatment for advanced head and neck cancer.

    PubMed

    Jacobi, Irene; Navran, Arash; van der Molen, Lisette; Heemsbergen, Wilma D; Hilgers, Frans J M; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent changes in speech after C-IMRT treatment are related to mean doses to the tongue and velopharynx (VP). In 34 patients with advanced hypopharyngeal, nasopharyngeal, or oropharyngeal cancer, changes in speech from pretreatment to 10 weeks and 1 year posttreatment were correlated with mean doses to the base of tongue (BOT), oral cavity (OC) and tonsillar fossa/soft palate (VP). Differences in anteroposterior tongue position, dorsoventral degree of tongue to palate or pharynx constriction, grooving, strength, nasality, and laryngeal rise, were assessed by acoustic changes in three speech sounds that depend on a (post-) alveolar closure or narrowing (/t/, /s/, /z/), three with a tongue to palate/pharyngeal narrowing (/l/, /r/, /u/), and in vowel /a/ at comfortable and highest pitch. Acoustically assessed changes in tongue positioning, shape, velopharyngeal constriction, and laryngeal elevation were significantly related to mean doses to the tongue and velopharynx. The mean dose to BOT predicted changes in anteroposterior tongue positioning from pre- to 10-weeks posttreatment. From pretreatment to 1-year, mean doses to BOT, OC, and VP were related to changes in grooving, strength, laryngeal height, nasality, palatalization, and degree of pharyngeal constriction. Changes in speech are related to mean doses to the base of tongue and velopharynx. The outcome indicates that strength, motility, and the balance between agonist and antagonist muscle forces change significantly after radiotherapy.

  15. Prognosis of locally advanced rectal cancer can be predicted more accurately using pre- and post-chemoradiotherapy neutrophil-lymphocyte ratios in patients who received preoperative chemoradiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Sung, SooYoon; Park, Eun Young; Kay, Chul Seung

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been suggested as an inflammation-related factor, but also as an indicator of systemic anti-tumor immunity. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of the NLR and to propose a proper cut-off value in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who received preoperative chemoradiation (CRT) followed by curative total mesorectal excision (TME). Methods A total of 110 rectal cancer patients with clinical T3-4 or node-positive disease were retrospectively analyzed. The NLR value before preoperative CRT (pre-CRT NLR) and the NLR value between preoperative CRT and surgery (post-CRT NLR) were obtained. Using a maximally selected log-rank test, cut-off values were determined as 1.75 for the pre-CRT NLR and 5.14 for the post-CRT NLR. Results Patients were grouped as follows: group A, pre-CRT NLR ≤ 1.75 and post-CRT NLR ≤ 5.14 (n = 29); group B, pre-CRT NLR > 1.75 and post-CRT NLR ≤ 5.14, or pre-CRT NLR ≤ 1.75 and post-CRT NLR > 5.14 (n = 61); group C, pre-CRT NLR > 1.75 and post-CRT NLR > 5.14 (n = 20). The median follow-up time was 31.1 months. The 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) rates showed significant differences between the NLR groups (3-year DFS rate: 92.7% vs. 73.0% vs. 47.3%, for group A, B, and C, respectively, p = 0.018; 3-year OS rate: 96.0% vs. 85.5% vs. 59.8%, p = 0.034). Multivariate analysis revealed that the NLR was an independent prognostic factor for DFS (p = 0.028). Conclusion Both the pre-CRT NLR and the post-CRT NLR have a predictive value for the prognosis of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with preoperative CRT followed by curative TME and adjuvant chemotherapy. A persistently elevated post-CRT NLR may be an indicator of an increased risk of distant metastasis. PMID:28291841

  16. Does Response to Induction Chemotherapy Predict Survival for Locally Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer? Secondary Analysis of RTOG 8804/8808

    SciTech Connect

    McAleer, Mary Frances; Moughan, Jennifer M.S.; Byhardt, Roger W.; Cox, James D.; Sause, William T.; Komaki, Ritsuko

    2010-03-01

    Purpose: Induction chemotherapy (ICT) improves survival compared with radiotherapy (RT) alone in locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (LANSCLC) patients with good prognostic factors. Concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) is superior to ICT followed by RT. The question arises whether ICT response predicts the outcome of patients subsequently treated with CCRT or RT. Methods and Materials: Between 1988 and 1992, 194 LANSCLC patients were treated prospectively with ICT (two cycles of vinblastine and cisplatin) and then CCRT (cisplatin plus 63 Gy for 7 weeks) in the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 8804 trial (n = 30) or ICT and then RT (60 Gy/6 wk) on Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 8808 trial (n = 164). Of the 194 patients, 183 were evaluable and 141 had undergone a postinduction assessment. The overall survival (OS) of those with complete remission (CR) or partial remission (PR) was compared with that of patients with stable disease (SD) or progressive disease (PD) after ICT. Results: Of the 141 patients, 6, 30, 99, and 6 had CR, PR, SD, and PD, respectively. The log-rank test showed a significant difference (p <0.0001) in OS when the response groups were compared (CR/PR vs. SD/PD). On univariate and multivariate analyses, a trend was seen toward a response to ICT with OS (p = 0.097 and p = 0.06, respectively). A squamous histologic type was associated with worse OS on univariate and multivariate analyses (p = 0.031 and p = 0.018, respectively). SD/PD plus a squamous histologic type had a hazard ratio of 2.25 vs. CR/PR plus a nonsquamous histologic type (p = 0.007) on covariate analysis. Conclusion: The response to ICT was associated with a significant survival difference when the response groups were compared. A response to ICT showed a trend toward, but was not predictive of, improved OS in LANSCLC patients. Patients with SD/PD after ICT and a squamous histologic type had the poorest OS. These data suggest that patients with squamous LANSCLC might benefit

  17. KRAS and BRAF Mutations and PTEN Expression Do Not Predict Efficacy of Cetuximab-Based Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Erben, Philipp; Stroebel, Philipp; Horisberger, Karoline; Popa, Juliana; Bohn, Beatrice; Hanfstein, Benjamin; Kaehler, Georg; Kienle, Peter; Post, Stefan; Wenz, Frederik; Hochhaus, Andreas

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: Mutations in KRAS and BRAF genes as well as the loss of expression of phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) (deleted on chromosome 10) are associated with impaired activity of antibodies directed against epidermal growth factor receptor in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. The predictive and prognostic value of the KRAS and BRAF point mutations as well as PTEN expression in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with cetuximab-based neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy is unknown. Methods and Materials: We have conducted phase I and II trials of the combination of weekly administration of cetuximab and irinotecan and daily doses of capecitabine in conjunction with radiotherapy (45 Gy plus 5.4 Gy) in patients with LARC (stage uT3/4 or uN+). The status of KRAS and BRAF mutations was determined with direct sequencing, and PTEN expression status was determined with immunohistochemistry testing of diagnostic tumor biopsies. Tumor regression was evaluated by using standardized regression grading, and disease-free survival (DFS) was calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: A total of 57 patients were available for analyses. A total of 31.6% of patients carried mutations in the KRAS genes. No BRAF mutations were found, while the loss of PTEN expression was observed in 9.6% of patients. Six patients achieved complete remission, and the 3-year DFS rate was 73%. No correlation was seen between tumor regression or DFS rate and a single marker or a combination of all markers. Conclusions: In the present series, no BRAF mutation was detected. The presence of KRAS mutations and loss of PTEN expression were not associated with impaired response to cetuximab-based chemoradiotherapy and 3-year DFS.

  18. Improvement in Health-Related Quality of Life After Hospitalization Predicts Event-free Survival in Patients with Advanced Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Moser, Debra K.; Yamokoski, Laura; Sun, Jie Lena; Conway, Ginger A.; Hartman, Karen A.; Graziano, Judith A.; Grant, Jane; Sun, Jie-Lena; Binanay, Cynthia; Stevenson, Lynne W.

    2009-01-01

    Background Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a major clinical outcome for heart failure (HF) patients. We aimed to determine the frequency, durability, and prognostic significance of improved HRQOL after hospitalization for decompensated HF. Methods and Results We analyzed HRQOL, measured serially using the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ), for 425 patients who survived to discharge in a multicenter randomized clinical trial of pulmonary artery catheter versus clinical assessment to guide therapy for patients with advanced HF. All patients enrolled had one or more prior HF hospitalizations or chronic high diuretic doses and one or more symptom and one sign of fluid overload at admission. Improvement, defined as a decrease of more than 5 points in MLHFQ total score, occurred in 68% of patients by 1 month and stabilized. The degree of 1 month improvement differed (P<0.0001 group × time interaction) between 6 month survivors and non-survivors. In a Cox regression model, after adjustment for traditional risk factors for HF morbidity and mortality, improvement in HRQOL by 1 month compared to worsening at one month or no change predicted time to subsequent event-free survival (P=0.013). Conclusions In patients hospitalized with severe HF decompensation, HRQOL is seriously impaired but improves substantially within 1 month for most patients and remains improved for 6 months. Patients for whom HRQOL does not improve by 1 month after hospital admission merit specific attention both to improve HRQOL and to address high risk for poor event-free survival. PMID:19879462

  19. To Excavate Biomarkers Predictive of the Response for Capecitabine plus RAD001 through Nanostring-Based Multigene Assay in Advanced Gastric Cancer Patients

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Hansang; Lee, Jeeyun; Sohn, Insuk; Park, Se Hoon; Park, Joon Oh; Park, Young Suk; Kim, Kyoung-Mee; Kang, Won Ki; Kim, Seung Tae

    2016-01-01

    Comprehensive characterization of individual patients' tumour is important to realize personalized medicine. Here, we investigate to identify subsets that benefit from capecitabine plus RAD001 in advanced gastric cancer (GC) patients by comprehensive high-throughput genomic analysis (nCounter assay). Archival tumour tissue blocks, if possible, were collected at phase II trial of capecitabine plus RAD001 in 47 refractory GC patients (at clinicaltrials.gov NCT#01099527). A total of 42 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumour samples were available for nanostring based-multigene Assay. An nCounter assay of 519 kinase panels has been used. We performed correlation analyses between expression levels of kinase genes and response for capecitabine plus RAD001. Among 42 patients with An nCounter assay of 519 kinase panels, 4 patients achieved confirmed partial response and 15 patients revealed stable disease, resulting in an overall response rate (ORR) of 9.5%. No difference in ORR was observed in terms of gender, performance status, primary tumour site, gastric resection, histologic subtype, Lauren classification, No. of metastatic site and No. of chemotherapy. In subgroups with response for capecitabine plus RAD001, there is significant overexpression of 6 genes among 519 kinase gene such as EPHA2 (P = 0.0025), PIM1 (P = 0.0031), KSR1 (P = 0.0033), and EIF2AK4 (P = 0.0046) that are related to the activation of mTOR signalling. This study is first report that investigated to identify biomarkers predictive of the response for RAD001 containing treatment in refractory GC patients, by comprehensive high-throughput genomic analysis (nCounter assay). PMID:27994652

  20. Validity of APCS score as a risk prediction score for advanced colorectal neoplasia in Chinese asymptomatic subjects: A prospective colonoscopy study.

    PubMed

    Li, Wenbin; Zhang, Lili; Hao, Jianyu; Wu, Yongdong; Lu, Di; Zhao, Haiying; Wang, Zhenjie; Xu, Tianming; Yang, Hong; Qian, Jiaming; Li, Jingnan

    2016-10-01

    The Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS) score is a risk-stratification tool that helps predict the risk for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) in asymptomatic Asian populations, but has not yet been assessed for its validity of use in Mainland China.The aim of the study was to assess the validity of APCS score in asymptomatic Chinese population, and to identify other risk factors associated with ACN.Asymptomatic subjects (N = 1010) who underwent colonoscopy screening between 2012 and 2014 in Beijing were enrolled. APCS scores based on questionnaires were used to stratify subjects into high, moderate, and average-risk tiers. Cochran-Armitage test for trend was used to assess the association between ACN and risk tiers. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed with ACN as the outcome, adjusting for APCS score, body mass index, alcohol consumption, self-reported diabetes, and use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs as independent variables.The average age was 53.5 (standard deviation 8.4) years. The prevalence of ACN was 4.1% overall, and in the high, moderate, and average-risk tiers, the prevalence was 8.8%, 2.83%, and 1.55%, respectively (P < 0.001). High-risk tier had 3.3 and 6.1-fold increased risk of ACN as compared with those in the moderate and average-risk tiers, respectively. In univariate analysis, high-risk tier, obesity, diabetes, and alcohol consumption were associated with ACN. In multivariate analysis, only high-risk tier was an independent predictor of ACN.The APCS score can effectively identify a subset of asymptomatic Chinese population at high risk for ACN. Further studies are required to identify other risk factors, and the acceptability of the score to the general population will need to be further examined.

  1. To Excavate Biomarkers Predictive of the Response for Capecitabine plus RAD001 through Nanostring-Based Multigene Assay in Advanced Gastric Cancer Patients.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hansang; Lee, Jeeyun; Sohn, Insuk; Park, Se Hoon; Park, Joon Oh; Park, Young Suk; Kim, Kyoung-Mee; Kang, Won Ki; Kim, Seung Tae

    2016-01-01

    Comprehensive characterization of individual patients' tumour is important to realize personalized medicine. Here, we investigate to identify subsets that benefit from capecitabine plus RAD001 in advanced gastric cancer (GC) patients by comprehensive high-throughput genomic analysis (nCounter assay). Archival tumour tissue blocks, if possible, were collected at phase II trial of capecitabine plus RAD001 in 47 refractory GC patients (at clinicaltrials.gov NCT#01099527). A total of 42 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumour samples were available for nanostring based-multigene Assay. An nCounter assay of 519 kinase panels has been used. We performed correlation analyses between expression levels of kinase genes and response for capecitabine plus RAD001. Among 42 patients with An nCounter assay of 519 kinase panels, 4 patients achieved confirmed partial response and 15 patients revealed stable disease, resulting in an overall response rate (ORR) of 9.5%. No difference in ORR was observed in terms of gender, performance status, primary tumour site, gastric resection, histologic subtype, Lauren classification, No. of metastatic site and No. of chemotherapy. In subgroups with response for capecitabine plus RAD001, there is significant overexpression of 6 genes among 519 kinase gene such as EPHA2 (P = 0.0025), PIM1 (P = 0.0031), KSR1 (P = 0.0033), and EIF2AK4 (P = 0.0046) that are related to the activation of mTOR signalling. This study is first report that investigated to identify biomarkers predictive of the response for RAD001 containing treatment in refractory GC patients, by comprehensive high-throughput genomic analysis (nCounter assay).

  2. Parameters of Stromal Activation and Epithelial to Mesenchymal Transition as Predictive Biomarkers for Induction Chemotherapy in Patients With Locally Advanced Oral Cavity and Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Geweiler, Jana; Inhestern, Johanna; Berndt, Alexander; Guntinas-Lichius, Orlando

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Induction chemotherapy (IC) is likely to be effective for biologically distinct subgroups of oral cancer and biomarker development may lead to identification of those patients. Methods We evaluated immune cell infiltration, stroma formation and structure of the invasive front as well as the immunohistochemical expression of alpha smooth muscle actin (ASMA), CD163, E-cadherin, N-cadherin, and the laminin gamma 2 chain in pretreatment biopsy specimens and surgical resections after IC in 20 patients with locally advanced oral cancer who were treated in a prospective, ongoing, phase II trial on IC using docetaxel, cisplatin, and 5-fluorouracil (TPF). Results Significant negative prognostic factors for incomplete pathological tumor response to IC were alcohol abuse (P=0.032), cN+ (P=0.042), and <30% tumor reduction after first cycle of IC (P=0.034). Of the investigated histological parameters and biomarkers only a low membrane-bound expression of E-cadherin showed a trend to be associated with incomplete response to IC (P=0.061). Low expression of ASMA in stromal vessels and a strong tumor invasion front were significantly associated to tumor recurrence (P=0.024 and P=0.004, respectively). The median follow-up of all patients was 35 months. Alcohol abuse (P<0.001), <30% tumor reduction after first cycle of IC (P=0.005), and a strong tumor invasion front (P=0.019) were negative prognostic factors for overall survival. Conclusion A strong predictive biomarker among the investigated parameters for benefitting from TPF IC could not be found. The extent of the tumor invasion front was a negative prognostic marker for recurrence and survival in oral cancer treated by TPF IC followed by surgery and postoperative radiochemotherapy. PMID:27416733

  3. Serum Vitamin D Levels Are Not Predictive of the Progression of Chronic Liver Disease in Hepatitis C Patients with Advanced Fibrosis

    PubMed Central

    Corey, Kathleen E.; Zheng, Hui; Mendez-Navarro, Jorge; Delgado-Borrego, Aymin; Dienstag, Jules L.; Chung, Raymond T.

    2012-01-01

    In animal models and human cross-sectional studies, vitamin D deficiency has been associated with liver disease progression. Vitamin D supplementation has been suggested as a treatment to prevent disease progression. We sought to evaluate the role of vitamin D levels in predicting chronic liver disease development. We conducted a nested case-control study of vitamin D levels in subjects with (cases) and without (controls) liver histologic progression or clinical decompensation over the course of the HALT-C Trial. Vitamin D levels were measured at 4 points over 45 months. 129 cases and 129 aged-matched controls were included. No difference in baseline vitamin D levels were found between cases and controls. (44.8 ng/mL vs. 44.0 ng/mL, P = 0.74). Vitamin D levels declined in cases and controls over time (P = 0.0005), however, there was no difference in the level of decline (P = 0.37). Among study subjects with diabetes mellitius, baseline vitamin D levels were higher in cases, 49.9 ng/mL, than controls, 36.3 ng/mL. (P = 0.03) In addition, baseline vitamin D levels were higher in black case subjects, 32.7 ng/mL, than in black control subjects, 25.2 ng/mL (P = 0.08) No difference in vitamin D levels was found between patients with and without progression of hepatitis C-associated liver disease over 4 years. Our data do not suggest any role for vitamin D supplementation in patients with advanced chronic hepatitis C and raise the possibility that higher vitamin D levels may be associated with disease progression. PMID:22359532

  4. Pelvic Lymph Node Status Assessed by 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Predicts Low-Risk Group for Distant Recurrence in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer: A Prospective Study

    SciTech Connect

    Kang, Sokbom; Park, Jung-Yeol; Lim, Myung-Chul; Song, Yong-Joong; Park, Se-Hyun; Kim, Seok-Ki; Chung, Dae-Chul; Seo, Sang-Soo; Kim, Joo-Young; Park, Sang-Yoon

    2011-03-01

    Purpose: To develop a prediction model to identify a low-risk group for distant recurrence in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer treated by concurrent chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: Prospectively, 62 patients with locally advanced cervical cancer were recruited as a training cohort. Clinical variables and parameters obtained from positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging were analyzed by logistic regression. For the test set, 54 patients were recruited independently. To identify the low-risk group, negative likelihood ratio (LR) less than 0.2 was set to be a cutoff. Results: Among the training cohort, multivariate logistic analysis revealed that advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage and a high serum squamous cancer cell (SCC) antigen level were significant risk factors (p = 0.015 and 0.025, respectively). Using the two parameters, criteria to determine a low-risk subset for distant recurrence were postulated: (1) FIGO Stage IIB or less and (2) pretreatment SCC < 2.4 (Model A). Positive pelvic node on PET completely predicted all cases with distant recurrence and thus was considered as another prediction model (Model B). In the test cohort, although Model A did not showed diagnostic performance, Model B completely predicted all cases with distant recurrence and showed a sensitivity of 100% with negative LR of 0. Across the training and test cohort (n = 116), the false negative rate was 0 (95% confidence interval 0%-7.6%). Conclusions: Positive pelvic node on PET is a useful marker in prediction of distant recurrence in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer who are treated with concurrent chemoradiation.

  5. The Effect of an Advanced Organizer and the Predictive Ability of Micro-Learning Tasks When Utilized with Carefully Sequenced Audio-Tutorial Units.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kahle, Jane Butler

    Four audio-tutorial units were developed as part of this study to determine the effectiveness of the use of advanced organizers, based on Ausubel's theories, for meaningful learning experiences. In this study an advanced organizer was developed and given to half of the subjects prior to the instructional sequence. A series of micro-learning tasks,…

  6. Prognostic and Predictive Factors in Patients with Advanced Penile Cancer Receiving Salvage (2nd or Later Line) Systemic Treatment: A Retrospective, Multi-Center Study

    PubMed Central

    Buonerba, Carlo; Di Lorenzo, Giuseppe; Pond, Gregory; Cartenì, Giacomo; Scagliarini, Sarah; Rozzi, Antonio; Quevedo, Fernando J.; Dorff, Tanya; Nappi, Lucia; Lanzetta, Gaetano; Pagliaro, Lance; Eigl, Bernhard J.; Naik, Gurudatta; Ferro, Matteo; Galdiero, Mariano; De Placido, Sabino; Sonpavde, Guru

    2016-01-01

    Introduction and objectives: Metastatic penile squamous cell carcinoma (PSCC) is associated with dismal outcomes with median overall survival (OS) of 6–12 months in the first-line and <6 months in the salvage setting. Given the rarity of this disease, randomized trials are difficult. Prognostic risk models may assist in rational drug development by comparing observed outcomes in nonrandomized phase II studies and retrospective data vs. predicted outcomes based on baseline prognostic factors in the context of historically used agents. In this retrospective study, we constructed a prognostic model in the salvage setting of PSCC patients receiving second or later line systemic treatment, and also explored differences in outcomes based on type of treatment. Materials and methods: We performed a chart review to identify patients with locally advanced unresectable or metastatic PSCC who received second or later line systemic treatment in centers from North America and Europe. The primary outcome was OS from initiation of treatment, with secondary outcomes being progression-free survival (PFS) and response rate (RR). OS was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify prognostic factors for outcomes using univariable and multivariable models. Results: Sixty-five patients were eligible. Seventeen of 63 evaluable patients had a response (27.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 16.6–39.7%) and median OS and PFS were 20 (95% CI = 20–21) and 12 (95% CI = 12, 16) weeks, respectively. Visceral metastasis (VM) and hemoglobin (Hb) ≤ 10 gm/dl were consistently significant poor prognostic factors for both OS and PFS, and Hb was also prognostic for response. The 28 patients with neither risk factor had a median OS (95% CI) of 24 (20–40) weeks and 1-year (95% CI) OS of 13.7% (4.4–42.7%), while the 37 patients with 1 or 2 risk factors had median OS (95% CI) of 20 (16–20) weeks and 1-year (95% CI) OS of 6.7% (1.8–24

  7. Low Levels of IgM Antibodies against an Advanced Glycation Endproduct-Modified Apolipoprotein B100 Peptide Predict Cardiovascular Events in Nondiabetic Subjects.

    PubMed

    Engelbertsen, Daniel; Vallejo, Jenifer; Quách, Tâm Dan; Fredrikson, Gunilla Nordin; Alm, Ragnar; Hedblad, Bo; Björkbacka, Harry; Rothstein, Thomas L; Nilsson, Jan; Bengtsson, Eva

    2015-10-01

    Increased glucose levels are associated with the generation of advanced glycation endproduct (AGE) modifications. Interaction between AGE-modified plaque components and immune cells is believed to have an important role in the development of vascular complications in diabetes. Methylglyoxal (MGO) is one type of reactive aldehyde that gives rise to AGE modification. The present study analyzed whether autoantibodies against MGO-modified epitopes of the low-density lipoprotein apolipoprotein B (apoB) 100 predict cardiovascular events. A library consisting of 302 peptides comprising the complete apoB100 molecule was screened to identify peptides targeted by MGO-specific autoantibodies. Peptide (p) 220 (apoB amino acids 3286-3305) was identified as a major target. Baseline IgM and IgG against MGO-peptide 220 (p220) were measured in 700 individuals from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Cohort. A total of 139 cardiovascular events were registered during the 15-y follow-up period. Controlling for major cardiovascular risk factors demonstrated that subjects in the lowest tertile of MGO-p220 IgM had an increased risk for cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 2.07 [1.22-3.50]; p(trend) = 0.004). Interestingly, the association between MGO-p220 IgM and cardiovascular events remained and even tended to become stronger when subjects with prevalent diabetes were excluded from the analysis (2.51 [1.37-4.61]; p(trend) = 0.002). MGO-p220 IgM was inversely associated with blood glucose, but not with oxidized low-density lipoprotein. Finally, we demonstrate that anti-MGO-p220 IgM is produced by B1 cells. These data show that subjects with low levels of IgM recognizing MGO-modified p220 in apoB have an increased risk to develop cardiovascular events and that this association is present in nondiabetic subjects.

  8. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1991-01-01

    The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

  9. Earth Observing System/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (EOS/AMSU-A): Reliability prediction report for module A1 (channels 3 through 15) and module A2 (channels 1 and 2)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geimer, W.

    1995-01-01

    This report documents the final reliability prediction performed on the Earth Observing System/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (EOS/AMSU-A). The A1 Module contains Channels 3 through 15, and is referred to herein as 'EOS/AMSU-A1'. The A2 Module contains Channels 1 and 2, and is referred herein as 'EOS/AMSU-A2'. The 'specified' figures were obtained from Aerojet Reports 8897-1 and 9116-1. The predicted reliability figure for the EOS/AMSU-A1 meets the specified value and provides a Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of 74,390 hours. The predicted reliability figure for the EOS/AMSU-A2 meets the specified value and provides a MTBF of 193,110 hours.

  10. Steam-explosion safety considerations for the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Taleyarkhan, R.

    1990-02-01

    This report provides a perspective on steam-explosion safety and design issues for the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) reactor being designed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. A historical background along with a description of experiments and analytical work performed to date has been provided. Preliminary analyses (for the ANS) have been conducted to evaluate steam-explosion pressure- pulse loadings, the effects of reactor coolant system (RCS) overpressurization, and slug energetics. The method used for pressure-pulse magnitude evaluation was benchmarked with previous calculations, an aluminum-water steam-explosion experiment, and test reactor steam explosion data with good agreement. Predicted pressure-pulse magnitudes evaluated were found to be several orders of magnitude lower than corresponding values evaluated by correlating available energies with shock-wave pressures from equivalent chemical detonations. The preliminary best estimate, as well as conservative estimates for RCS volume-pressurization failure and slug energetics for RCS volume-pressurization failure and slug energetics, indicated that (1) steam explosions in the ANS have significant damage potential, and (2) steam-explosion issues must be considered during the design phase of the ANS Project. Recommendations are made for efficiently addressing this important safety and design issue. 38 refs., 17 figs., 11 tabs.

  11. Developing a musculoskeletal model of the primate skull: predicting muscle activations, bite force, and joint reaction forces using multibody dynamics analysis and advanced optimisation methods.

    PubMed

    Shi, Junfen; Curtis, Neil; Fitton, Laura C; O'Higgins, Paul; Fagan, Michael J

    2012-10-07

    An accurate, dynamic, functional model of the skull that can be used to predict muscle forces, bite forces, and joint reaction forces would have many uses across a broad range of disciplines. One major issue however with musculoskeletal analyses is that of muscle activation pattern indeterminacy. A very large number of possible muscle force combinations will satisfy a particular functional task. This makes predicting physiological muscle recruitment patterns difficult. Here we describe in detail the process of development of a complex multibody computer model of a primate skull (Macaca fascicularis), that aims to predict muscle recruitment patterns during biting. Using optimisation criteria based on minimisation of muscle stress we predict working to balancing side muscle force ratios, peak bite forces, and joint reaction forces during unilateral biting. Validation of such models is problematic; however we have shown comparable working to balancing muscle activity and TMJ reaction ratios during biting to those observed in vivo and that peak predicted bite forces compare well to published experimental data. To our knowledge the complexity of the musculoskeletal model is greater than any previously reported for a primate. This complexity, when compared to more simple representations provides more nuanced insights into the functioning of masticatory muscles. Thus, we have shown muscle activity to vary throughout individual muscle groups, which enables them to function optimally during specific masticatory tasks. This model will be utilised in future studies into the functioning of the masticatory apparatus.

  12. A storm modeling system as an advanced tool in prediction of well organized slowly moving convective cloud system and early warning of severe weather risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiridonov, Vlado; Curic, Mladjen

    2015-02-01

    Short-range prediction of precipitation is a critical input to flood prediction and hence the accuracy of flood warnings. Since most of the intensive processes come from convective clouds-the primary aim is to forecast these small-scale atmospheric processes. One characteristic pattern of organized group of convective clouds consist of a line of deep convection resulted in the repeated passage of heavy-rain-producing convective cells over NW part of Macedonia along the line. This slowly moving convective system produced extreme local rainfall and hailfall in urban Skopje city. A 3-d cloud model is used to simulate the main storm characteristic (e.g., structure, intensity, evolution) and the main physical processes responsible for initiation of heavy rainfall and hailfall. The model showed a good performance in producing significantly more realistic and spatially accurate forecasts of convective rainfall event than is possible with current operational system. The output results give a good initial input for developing appropriate tools such as flooding indices and potential risk mapping for interpreting and presenting the predictions so that they enhance operational flood prediction capabilities and warnings of severe weather risk of weather services. Convective scale model-even for a single case used has proved significant benefits in several aspects (initiation of convection, storm structure and evolution and precipitation). The storm-scale model (grid spacing-1 km) is capable of producing significantly more realistic and spatially accurate forecasts of convective rainfall events than is possible with current operational systems based on model with grid spacing 15 km.

  13. Advanced Satellite-Derived Wind Observations, Assimilation, and Targeting Strategies during TCS-08 for Developing Improved Operational Analysis and Prediction of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-30

    forecasts of tropical cyclone track has been designed. This framework, designed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, can be...meridional wind, and temperature from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis as synthetic radiosonde observations. The...significant challenges faced in predicting its structure and intensity. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 9 km horizontal grid

  14. Advancing the prediction accuracy of protein-protein interactions by utilizing evolutionary information from position-specific scoring matrix and ensemble classifier.

    PubMed

    Wang, Lei; You, Zhu-Hong; Xia, Shi-Xiong; Liu, Feng; Chen, Xing; Yan, Xin; Zhou, Yong

    2017-04-07

    Protein-Protein Interactions (PPIs) are essential to most biological processes and play a critical role in most cellular functions. With the development of high-throughput biological techniques and in silico methods, a large number of PPI data have been generated for various organisms, but many problems remain unsolved. These factors promoted the development of the in silico methods based on machine learning to predict PPIs. In this study, we propose a novel method by combining ensemble Rotation Forest (RF) classifier and Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) algorithm to predict the interactions among proteins. Specifically, the protein amino acids sequence is transformed into Position-Specific Scoring Matrix (PSSM) containing biological evolution information, and then the feature vector is extracted to present protein evolutionary information using DCT algorithm; finally, the ensemble rotation forest model is used to predict whether a given protein pair is interacting or not. When performed on Yeast and H. pylori data sets, the proposed method achieved excellent results with an average accuracy of 98.54% and 88.27%. In addition, we achieved good prediction accuracy of 98.08%, 92.75%, 98.87% and 98.72% on independent data sets (C.elegans, E.coli, H.sapiens and M.musculus). In order to further evaluate the performance of our method, we compare it with the state-of-the-art Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier and get good results. As a web server, the source code and Yeast data sets used in this article are freely available at http://202.119.201.126:8888/DCTRF/.

  15. Prognostic and Predictive Role of the VeriStrat® Plasma Test in Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Treated with Erlotinib or Placebo in the NCIC Clinical Trials Group BR.21 Trial

    PubMed Central

    Carbone, David P.; Ding, Keyue; Roder, Heinrich; Grigorieva, Julia; Roder, Joanna; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Seymour, Lesley; Shepherd, Frances A.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction We investigated the predictive and prognostic effects of VeriStrat®, a serum or plasma based assay, on response and survival in a subset of patients enrolled on the NCIC Clinical Trials Group (CTG) BR.21 phase III trial of erlotinib versus placebo in previously treated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Methods Pretreatment plasma samples were available for 441 of 731 enrolled patients and were provided as anonymized aliquots to Biodesix. The VeriStrat test was performed in a CLIA-accredited laboratory at Biodesix, Inc. Results (Good, Poor) were returned to NCIC CTG, who performed all statistical analyses. Results VeriStrat testing was successful in 436 samples (98.9%), with 61% classified as Good. VeriStrat was prognostic for overall survival in both erlotinib-treated patients and those on placebo, independent of clinical covariates. For VeriStrat Good patients, the median survival was 10.5 months on erlotinib vs. 6.6 months for placebo (HR 0.63, 95% C.I. 0.47–0.85, P=0.002). For VeriStrat Poor patients, the median survival was 4 months for patients receiving erlotinib, and 3.1 months for placebo (HR: 0.77, 95% C.I. 0.55–1.06, P=0.11). VeriStrat was predictive for objective response (P =0.002), but was not able to predict for differential survival benefit from erlotinib (interaction p-value 0.48). Similar results were found for progression-free survival (PFS). Conclusion We were able to confirm that VeriStrat is predictive of objective response to erlotinib. VeriStrat is prognostic for both OS and PFS, independent of clinical features, but is not predictive of differential survival benefit vs. placebo. PMID:23059783

  16. Karnofsky Performance Status and Lactate Dehydrogenase Predict the Benefit of Palliative Whole-Brain Irradiation in Patients With Advanced Intra- and Extracranial Metastases From Malignant Melanoma

    SciTech Connect

    Partl, Richard; Richtig, Erika; Avian, Alexander; Berghold, Andrea; Kapp, Karin S.

    2013-03-01

    Purpose: To determine prognostic factors that allow the selection of melanoma patients with advanced intra- and extracerebral metastatic disease for palliative whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) or best supportive care. Methods and Materials: This was a retrospective study of 87 patients who underwent palliative WBRT between 1988 and 2009 for progressive or multiple cerebral metastases at presentation. Uni- and multivariate analysis took into account the following patient- and tumor-associated factors: gender and age, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), neurologic symptoms, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, number of intracranial metastases, previous resection or stereotactic radiosurgery of brain metastases, number of extracranial metastasis sites, and local recurrences as well as regional lymph node metastases at the time of WBRT. Results: In univariate analysis, KPS, LDH, number of intracranial metastases, and neurologic symptoms had a significant influence on overall survival. In multivariate survival analysis, KPS and LDH remained as significant prognostic factors, with hazard ratios of 3.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-6.5) and 2.8 (95% CI 1.6-4.9), respectively. Patients with KPS ≥70 and LDH ≤240 U/L had a median survival of 191 days; patients with KPS ≥70 and LDH >240 U/L, 96 days; patients with KPS <70 and LDH ≤240 U/L, 47 days; and patients with KPS <70 and LDH >240 U/L, only 34 days. Conclusions: Karnofsky performance status and serum LDH values indicate whether patients with advanced intra- and extracranial tumor manifestations are candidates for palliative WBRT or best supportive care.

  17. Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hunter, H. E.; Amato, R. A.

    1972-01-01

    The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

  18. Predictions of human tolerance to cold water immersion while wearing advanced integrated garment ensembles with and without survival rafts or exogenous heating. Final report, April-September 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Shender, B.S.; Kaufman, J.

    1993-12-30

    US Navy interest in garments providing integrated protection against chemical agents, hyperthermia, hypobaria, and hypothermia has led to fabrication of prototype multi-purpose garments. As part of the development process, these garments need to be tested for the protection they provide against these hazards. Mathematical modeling can be used to simulate the thermal protection provided by the various garment designs and minimize laboratory testing. It can also be used to establish guidelines on the amount of clothing insulation required to withstand exposures of various durations under conditions of thermal stress. This paper reports on the theoretical evaluation of hypothermia protection provided by various tactical aircrew garments during simulated head-out cold water immersion (CWI) using the Texas Human Thermal Model (10) (referred to THTM, below), as modified by the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division THTM for use with low CLO values (7). THTM can aid in clothing design by allowing specification of insulation values for up to fifteen body segments. This is an improvement over earlier work (8), in which researchers based their conclusions on an overall mean THTM value for garments. Also included in this paper is an algorithm to predict the effects of using open and closed survival rafts while wearing a CWU-62/P on rectal and mean skin temperature during survival scenarios. Lastly, THTM was used to predict the amount of exogenous heating required to survive 6 hour CWI while wearing CWU-27/P and CWU-62/P garment ensembles.

  19. Predictions of human tolerance to cold water immersion while wearning advanced integrated garment ensembles with and without survival rafts or exogenous heating. Final report, April-September 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Shender, B.S.; Kaufman, J.

    1993-12-30

    US Navy interest in garments providing integrated protection against chemical agents, hyperthermia, hypobaria, and hypothermia has led to fabrication of prototype multi-purpose garments. As part of the development process, these garments need to be tested for the protection they provide against these hazards. Mathematical modeling can be used to simulate the thermal protection provided by the various garment designs and minimize laboratory testing. It can also be used to establish guidelines on the amount of clothing insulation required to withstand exposures of various durations under conditions of thermal stress. This paper reports on the theoretical evaluation of hypothermia protection provided by various tactical aircrew garments during simulated head-out cold water immersion (CWI) using the Texas Human Thermal Model (10) (referred to THTM, below), as modified by the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division Warminster for use with low CLO values (7). THTM can aid in clothing design by allowing specification of insulation values for up to fifteen body segments. This is an improvement over earlier work (8), in which researchers based their conclusions on an overall mean CLO value for garments. Also included in this paper is an algorithm to predict the effects of using open and closed survival rafts while wearing a CWU-62/P on rectal and mean skin temperature during survival scenarios. Lastly, THTM was used to predict the amount of exogenous heating required to survive 6 hour CWI while wearing CWU-27YP and CWU-62/P garment ensembles.

  20. Predictive modeling of complications.

    PubMed

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  1. Missense mutations in the TP53 DNA-binding domain predict outcomes in patients with advanced oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Li-Yu; Lin, Chien-Yu; Wang, Hung-Ming; Ng, Shu-Hang; Chen, Shu-Jen; Yen, Tzu-Chen

    2016-01-01

    TP53 mutations have been linked to reduced survival in patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). However, the impact of different types of TP53 mutations remains unclear. Here, we demonstrate that the carriage of missense mutations in the TP53 DNA binding domain (DBD missense mutations) is associated with decreased disease-specific survival (DSS) compared with wild-type TP53 (P=0.002) in a cohort of 345 OSCC patients. In contrast, DSS of patients bearing all of the remaining TP53 mutations did not differ from that observed in wild-type TP53 patients (P=0.955). Our classification method for TP53 mutations was superior to previously reported approaches (disruptive, truncating, Evolutionary Action score, mutations in L2/L3/LSH) for distinguishing between low- and high-risk patients. When analyzed in combination with traditional clinicopathological factors, TP53 DBD missense mutations were an independent prognostic factor for shorter DSS (P=0.014) alongside with advanced AJCC T- and N-classifications and the presence of extracapsular spread. A scoring system that included the four independent prognostic factors allowed a reliable patient stratification into distinct risk groups (high-risk patients, 16.2%). Our results demonstrate the usefulness of TP53 DBD missense mutations combined with clinicopathological factors for improving the prognostic stratification of OSCC patients. PMID:27283772

  2. Missense mutations in the TP53 DNA-binding domain predict outcomes in patients with advanced oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Lapke, Nina; Lu, Yen-Jung; Liao, Chun-Ta; Lee, Li-Yu; Lin, Chien-Yu; Wang, Hung-Ming; Ng, Shu-Hang; Chen, Shu-Jen; Yen, Tzu-Chen

    2016-07-12

    TP53 mutations have been linked to reduced survival in patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). However, the impact of different types of TP53 mutations remains unclear. Here, we demonstrate that the carriage of missense mutations in the TP53 DNA binding domain (DBD missense mutations) is associated with decreased disease-specific survival (DSS) compared with wild-type TP53 (P=0.002) in a cohort of 345 OSCC patients. In contrast, DSS of patients bearing all of the remaining TP53 mutations did not differ from that observed in wild-type TP53 patients (P=0.955). Our classification method for TP53 mutations was superior to previously reported approaches (disruptive, truncating, Evolutionary Action score, mutations in L2/L3/LSH) for distinguishing between low- and high-risk patients. When analyzed in combination with traditional clinicopathological factors, TP53 DBD missense mutations were an independent prognostic factor for shorter DSS (P=0.014) alongside with advanced AJCC T- and N-classifications and the presence of extracapsular spread. A scoring system that included the four independent prognostic factors allowed a reliable patient stratification into distinct risk groups (high-risk patients, 16.2%). Our results demonstrate the usefulness of TP53 DBD missense mutations combined with clinicopathological factors for improving the prognostic stratification of OSCC patients.

  3. Upregulation of Talin-1 expression associates with advanced pathological features and predicts lymph node metastases and biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Ning; Chen, Hui-Jun; Chen, Shao-Hao; Xue, Xue-Yi; Chen, Hong; Zheng, Qing-Shui; Wei, Yong; Li, Xiao-Dong; Huang, Jin-Bei; Cai, Hai; Sun, Xiong-Lin

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Talin-1 functions to regulate cell–cell adhesion, and its altered expression was reported to be associated with human carcinogenesis. A total of 280 tissue specimens from prostate cancer (PCa) patients who underwent radical prostatectomy, 75 cases of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) tissue, and 6 cases of normal prostate tissue specimens were collected for construction of tissue microarray and subsequently subjected to immunohistochemical staining of Talin-1 expression. Talin-1 expression was significantly higher in PCa than both normal and BPH tissues (P <0.001). Talin-1 expression in PCa tissues was associated with preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, Gleason score, tumor stage, lymph node metastasis, positive surgical margin, extracapsular extension and seminal vesicle invasion (all P <0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that Talin-1 and Gleason score were independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis of PCa (P <0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve indicated that Talin-1 expression (AUC = 0.766) had a better accuracy to predict PCa lymph node metastasis than Gleason score (AUC = 0.697), whereas their combination could further enhance the prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.803). Kaplan–Meier curve analysis showed that increased Talin-1 expression was associated with shortened biochemical-free survival of PCa patients after radical prostatectomy (P <0.001). These findings suggested that Talin-1 protein was significantly upregulated in PCa tissues compared with that of BPH tissue and Talin-1 expression was an independent predictor for lymph node metastasis and biochemical recurrence of PCa. Further study will investigate the underlying molecular mechanism and the role of Talin-1 in PCa. PMID:27442684

  4. Use of prediction equations to determine the accuracy of whole-body fat and fat-free mass and appendicular skeletal muscle mass measurements from a single abdominal image using computed tomography in advanced cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Kilgour, Robert D; Cardiff, Katrina; Rosenthall, Leonard; Lucar, Enriqueta; Trutschnigg, Barbara; Vigano, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Measurements of body composition using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and single abdominal images from computed tomography (CT) in advanced cancer patients (ACP) have important diagnostic and prognostic value. The question arises as to whether CT scans can serve as surrogates for DXA in terms of whole-body fat-free mass (FFM), whole-body fat mass (FM), and appendicular skeletal muscle (ASM) mass. Predictive equations to estimate body composition for ACP from CT images have been proposed (Mourtzakis et al. 2008; Appl. Physiol. Nutr. Metabol. 33(5): 997-1006); however, these equations have yet to be validated in an independent cohort of ACP. Thus, this study evaluated the accuracy of these equations in estimating FFM, FM, and ASM mass using CT images at the level of the third lumbar vertebrae and compared these values with DXA measurements. FFM, FM, and ASM mass were estimated from the prediction equations proposed by Mourtzakis and colleagues (2008) using single abdominal CT images from 43 ACP and were compared with whole-body DXA scans using Spearman correlations and Bland-Altman analyses. Despite a moderate to high correlation between the actual (DXA) and predicted (CT) values for FM (rho = 0.93; p ≤ 0.001), FFM (rho = 0.78; p ≤ 0.001), and ASM mass (rho = 0.70; p ≤ 0.001), Bland-Altman analyses revealed large range-of-agreement differences between the 2 methods (29.39 kg for FFM, 15.47 kg for FM, and 3.99 kg for ASM mass). Based on the magnitude of these differences, we concluded that prediction equations using single abdominal CT images have poor accuracy, cannot be considered as surrogates for DXA, and may have limited clinical utility.

  5. HER-2, p53, p21 and hormonal receptors proteins expression as predictive factors of response and prognosis in locally advanced breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant docetaxel plus epirubicin combination

    PubMed Central

    Tiezzi, Daniel G; Andrade, Jurandyr M; Ribeiro-Silva, Alfredo; Zola, Fábio E; Marana, Heitor RC; Tiezzi, Marcelo G

    2007-01-01

    Background Neoadjuvant chemotherapy has been considered the standard care in locally advanced breast cancer. However, about 20% of the patients do not benefit from this clinical treatment and, predictive factors of response were not defined yet. This study was designed to evaluate the importance of biological markers to predict response and prognosis in stage II and III breast cancer patients treated with taxane and anthracycline combination as neoadjuvant setting. Methods Sixty patients received preoperative docetaxel (75 mg/m2) in combination with epirubicin (50 mg/m2) in i.v. infusion in D1 every 3 weeks after incisional biopsy. They received adjuvant chemotherapy with CMF or FEC, attaining axillary status following definitive breast surgery. Clinical and pathologic response rates were measured after preoperative therapy. We evaluated the response rate to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and the prognostic significance of clinicopathological and immunohistochemical parameters (ER, PR, p51, p21 and HER-2 protein expression). The median patient age was 50.5 years with a median follow up time 48 months after the time of diagnosis. Results Preoperative treatment achieved clinical response in 76.6% of patients and complete pathologic response in 5%. The clinical, pathological and immunohistochemical parameters were not able to predict response to therapy and, only HER2 protein overexpression was associated with a decrease in disease free and overall survival (P = 0.0007 and P = 0.003) as shown by multivariate analysis. Conclusion Immunohistochemical phenotypes were not able to predict response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Clinical response is inversely correlated with a risk of death in patients submitted to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and HER2 overexpression is the major prognostic factor in stage II and III breast cancer patients treated with a neoadjuvant docetaxel and epirubicin combination. PMID:17324279

  6. The validity and incremental validity of knowledge tests, low-fidelity simulations, and high-fidelity simulations for predicting job performance in advanced-level high-stakes selection.

    PubMed

    Lievens, Filip; Patterson, Fiona

    2011-09-01

    In high-stakes selection among candidates with considerable domain-specific knowledge and experience, investigations of whether high-fidelity simulations (assessment centers; ACs) have incremental validity over low-fidelity simulations (situational judgment tests; SJTs) are lacking. Therefore, this article integrates research on the validity of knowledge tests, low-fidelity simulations, and high-fidelity simulations in advanced-level high-stakes settings. A model and hypotheses of how these 3 predictors work in combination to predict job performance were developed. In a sample of 196 applicants, all 3 predictors were significantly related to job performance. Both the SJT and the AC had incremental validity over the knowledge test. Moreover, the AC had incremental validity over the SJT. Model tests showed that the SJT fully mediated the effects of declarative knowledge on job performance, whereas the AC partially mediated the effects of the SJT.

  7. Identification of a five B cell-associated gene prognostic and predictive signature for advanced glioma patients harboring immunosuppressive subtype preference

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Haoyuan; Song, Sonya Wei

    2016-01-01

    High grade gliomas contribute to most brain tumor mortality. A few studies reported that the immune system affected glioma development, and immune biomarkers helped understand the disease and formulate effective immunotherapy for patients. Currently, no B lymphocyte-based prognostic signature was reported in gliomas. By applying 78 B cell lineage-specific genes, we conducted a whole-genome gene expression analysis in 782 high grade gliomas derived from three independent datasets by Cox regression analysis and risk score method for signature identification, and then used Gene Ontology, Gene Set Enrichment Analysis, and other statistical methods for functional annotations of the signature-defined differences. We developed a five B cell-associated gene signature for prognosis of high grade glioma patients, which is independent of clinicopathological and genetic features. The signature identified high risk patients suitable for chemoradiotherapy, whereas low risk patients should rule out chemotherapy with radiotherapy only. We found that tumors of TCGA Mesenchymal subtype and wild type IDH1 were preferentially stratified to the high risk group, which bore strong immunosuppressive microenvironment, while tumors of TCGA Proneural subtype and mutated IDH1 were significantly accumulated to the low risk group, which exhibited less immunosuppressive state. The five B cell-associated gene signature predicts poor survival of high risk patients bearing strong immunosuppression and helps select optimal therapeutic regimens for glioma patients. PMID:27738332

  8. An Application of Advanced Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Methods to Assess Potential Impacts of the 2015 - 2016 ENSO Event over the Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, W. P.; Lamb, K. W.; Piechota, T. C.; Lakshmi, V.; Santos, N. I.; Tootle, G. A.; Kalra, A.; Fayne, J.

    2015-12-01

    Water resource managers throughout the Western United States have struggled with persistent and severe drought since the early 2000s. In the Colorado River Basin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) provides forecasts of water supply conditions to resource managers throughout the basin using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) methods that are largely driven by historical observations of temperature and precipitation. Currently, the CBRFC does not have a way to incorporate information from climatic teleconnections such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO describes warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that typically correlate with cool and wet winter precipitation events in California and the Lower Colorado River Basin during an El Niño event. Past research indicates the potential to identify analog ENSO events to evaluate the impact to reservoir storage in the Colorado River Basin. Current forecasts indicate the potential for one of the strongest El Niño events on record this winter. In this study, information regarding the upcoming ENSO event is used to inform water supply forecasts over the Upper Colorado River Basin. These forecasts are then compared to traditionally derived water supply forecast in an attempt to evaluate the possible impact of the El Niño event to water supply over the Colorado River Basin.

  9. Toward full-chip prediction of yield-limiting contact patterning failure: correlation of simulated image parameters to advanced contact metrology metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sturtevant, John L.; Chou, Dyiann

    2006-03-01

    Electrical failure due to incomplete contacts or vias has arisen as one of the primary modes of yield loss for 130 nm and below designs in manufacturing. Such failures are generally understood to arise from both random and systematic sources. The addition of redundant vias, where possible, has long been an accepted DFM practice for mitigating the impact of random defects. Incomplete vias are often characterized by having a diameter near the target dimension but a depth of less than 100% of target. As such, it is a difficult problem to diagnose and debug in-line, since bright and dark field optical inspection systems cannot typically distinguish between a closed, partially open and fully open contact. Advanced metrology systems have emerged in recent years to meet this challenge, but no perfect manufacturing solution has yet been identified for full field verification of all contacts. Voltage Contrast (VC) SEM metrology biases the wafer to directly measure electrical conductivity after fill / polish, and can therefore easily discern a lack of electrical connection to the underlying conductor caused by incomplete photo, etch, or fill processing. While an entire wafer can in principal be VC scanned, throughput limitations dictate very sparse sampling in manufacturing. SEM profile grading (PG) leverages the rich content of the secondary electron waveform to decipher information about the bottom of the contact. Several authors have demonstrated an excellent response of the Profile Grade to intentional defocus vectors. However, the SEM can only target discreet or single digit groupings of contacts, and therefore requires intelligent guidance to identify those contacts which are most prone to failure, enabling protection of the fab WIP. An a-priori knowledge of which specific contacts in a layout are most likely to fail would prove very useful for proactive inspection in manufacturing. Model based pre-manufacturing verification allows for such knowledge to be communicated

  10. Advanced stellarators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlüter, Arnulf

    1983-03-01

    Toroidal confinement of a plasma by an external magnetic field is not compatible with axisymmetry, in contrast to confinement by the pinch effect of induced electric currents as in a tokomak or by the reversed field pinch configuration. The existence of magnetic surfaces throughout the region in which grad p ≠ 0 is therefore not guaranteed in such configurations, though it is necessary for MHD-equilibrium when the lines of force possess a finite twist (or "rotational transform"). These twisted equilibria are called stellarators. The other type of external confinement requires all lines of force to be closed upon themselves and p to be function of the well defined quantity Q = φ d l/ B only. The resulting "bumpy" tori are sometimes also referred to as being M + S like. By discussing specific examples it is shown that stellarator configurations exist which retain as much as possible the properties of M + S like configurations, combine these with the magnetic well, and with an approximation to the isodynamic requirement of D. Palumbo. These so-called Advanced Stellarators shown an improvement in predicted particle confinement and beta-limit compared to the classical stellarators. They can also be viewed as forming a system of linked stabilized mirrors of small mirror ratio. These fields can be produced by modular coils. A prototype of such a configuration is being designed by the stellarator division of IPP under the name of Wendelstein VII-AS. Expected physical data and technical details of W VII-AS are given.

  11. Sequential PET/CT with [18F]-FDG Predicts Pathological Tumor Response to Preoperative Short Course Radiotherapy with Delayed Surgery in Patients with Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Using Logistic Regression Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Pecori, Biagio; Lastoria, Secondo; Caracò, Corradina; Celentani, Marco; Tatangelo, Fabiana; Avallone, Antonio; Rega, Daniela; De Palma, Giampaolo; Mormile, Maria; Budillon, Alfredo; Muto, Paolo; Bianco, Francesco; Aloj, Luigi; Petrillo, Antonella; Delrio, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    Previous studies indicate that FDG PET/CT may predict pathological response in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Aim of the current study is evaluate if pathological response can be similarly predicted in LARC patients after short course radiation therapy alone. Methods: Thirty-three patients with cT2-3, N0-2, M0 rectal adenocarcinoma treated with hypo fractionated short course neoadjuvant RT (5x5 Gy) with delayed surgery (SCRTDS) were prospectively studied. All patients underwent 3 PET/CT studies at baseline, 10 days from RT end (early), and 53 days from RT end (delayed). Maximal standardized uptake value (SUVmax), mean standardized uptake value (SUVmean) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) of the primary tumor were measured and recorded at each PET/CT study. We use logistic regression analysis to aggregate different measures of metabolic response to predict the pathological response in the course of SCRTDS. Results: We provide straightforward formulas to classify response and estimate the probability of being a major responder (TRG1-2) or a complete responder (TRG1) for each individual. The formulas are based on the level of TLG at the early PET and on the overall proportional reduction of TLG between baseline and delayed PET studies. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that in the course of SCRTDS it is possible to estimate the probabilities of pathological tumor responses on the basis of PET/CT with FDG. Our formulas make it possible to assess the risks associated to LARC borne by a patient in the course of SCRTDS. These risk assessments can be balanced against other health risks associated with further treatments and can therefore be used to make informed therapy adjustments during SCRTDS. PMID:28060889

  12. Successful Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierrehumbert, R.

    2012-12-01

    reasons I shall discuss. During the dark ages of global change, between Arrhenius and Plass (punctuated by Callendar), work on planetary climate had not in fact ground to a halt, but developed vigorously in the astronomical community. This culminated in major discoveries about the atmospheres of Mars and Venus, notably Sagan's prediction that Venus has an extremely high surface temperature owing to an atmosphere extremely rich in greenhouse gases. The fertile interplay between astrophysics and terrestrial climate science continues in the current dawning era of exoplanet discovery. Early modeling work, notably by Manabe and co-workers, identified a number of spatial patterns of global change that were ultimately realized in data. These include: amplification of warming over land and in the Arctic, and the conjunction of stratospheric cooling with tropospheric warming. Additional examples I will discuss include the problem of tropical temperatures at the Last Glacial Maximum, water vapor feedback, Hansen's prediction of response to the Pinatubo eruption, and the prediction that ocean heat uptake would delay warming. While not all aspects of climate change were anticipated in advance (notably the interruption of warming around 1950-1970), examples of truly failed predictions are rare, and are overwhelmingly found among theories such as those of Angstrom or Lindzen which purport to show little sensitivity of climate to CO2.

  13. VEGFR-3 and CXCR4 as predictive markers for treatment with fluorouracil, leucovorin plus either oxaliplatin or cisplatin in patients with advanced esophagogastric cancer: a comparative study of the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Internistische Onkologie (AIO)

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Combination of fluoropyrimidines and a platinum derivative are currently standards for systemic chemotherapy in advanced adenocarcinoma of the stomach and gastroesophageal junction (GEJ). Nevertheless, individual likelihood for response to these therapeutic regimes remains uncertain. Even more, no predictive markers are available to determine which patients may benefit more from oxaliplatin versus cisplatin or vice versa. The new invasion and stem cell markers VEGFR-3 and CXCR4 have been linked prognostically with more aggressive esophagogastric cancer types. Thus, we aimed to assess correlations of VEGFR-3 and CXCR4 expression levels with clinical outcome in a randomized phase III study of patients with oxaliplatin/leucovorin/5-FU (FLO) versus cisplatin/leucovorin/5-FU (FLP). Methods The patients data examined in this study (n = 72) were from the collective of the FLO vs. FLP phase III AIO trial. Tumour tissues were stained via immunohistochemistry for VEGFR-3 and CXCR4 expression and results were evaluated by two independent, blinded investigators. Outcome parameter: Survival analysis was calculated for patients receiving FLO vs. FLP in relation to VEGFR-3 and CXCR4 expression. Results 54% and 36% of the examined tumour tissues showed strong positive expression of VEGFR-3 and CXCR4 respectively. No superiority of each regime was detected in terms of overall survival (OS) in the whole population. Patients with strong expression of CXCR4 on their tumour tissues profited more in terms of OS under the treatment of FLP (mOS: 28 vs 15 months, p = 0.05 respectively). Patients with negative VEGFR-3 and CXCR4 expression had a trend to live longer when FLO regime was applied (mOS: 22 vs. 9 months, p = 0.099 and 20 vs. 10 months, p = 0.073 respectively). In an exploratory analysis of patients older than 60 years at diagnosis, we observed a significant benefit in overall survival for VEGFR-3 and CXCR4-positive patients when treated with FLP (p

  14. Geostatistics and remote sensing as predictive tools of tick distribution: a cokriging system to estimate Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) habitat suitability in the United States and Canada from advanced very high resolution radiometer satellite imagery.

    PubMed

    Estrada-Peña, A

    1998-11-01

    Geostatistics (cokriging) was used to model the cross-correlated information between satellite-derived vegetation and climate variables and the distribution of the tick Ixodes scapularis (Say) in the Nearctic. Output was used to map the habitat suitability for I. scapularis on a continental scale. A data base of the localities where I. scapularis was collected in the United States and Canada was developed from a total of 346 published and geocoded records. This data base was cross-correlated with satellite pictures from the advanced very high resolution radiometer sensor obtained from 1984 to 1994 on the Nearctic at 10-d intervals, with a resolution of 8 km per pixel. Eight climate and vegetation variables were tabulated from this imagery. A cokriging system was generated to exploit satellite-derived data and to estimate the distribution of I. scapularis. Results obtained using 2 vegetation (standard NDVI) and 4 temperature variables closely agreed with actual records of the tick, with a sensitivity of 0.97 and a specificity of 0.89, with 6 and 4% of false-positive and false-negative sites, respectively. Such statistical analysis can be used to guide field work toward the correct interpretation of the distribution limits of I. scapularis and can also be used to make predictions about the impact of global change on tick range.

  15. Positron emission tomography has a high negative predictive value for progression or early relapse for patients with residual disease after first-line chemotherapy in advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Kobe, Carsten; Dietlein, Markus; Franklin, Jeremy; Markova, Jana; Lohri, Andreas; Amthauer, Holger; Klutmann, Susanne; Knapp, Wolfram H.; Zijlstra, Josee M.; Bockisch, Andreas; Weckesser, Matthias; Lorenz, Reinhard; Schreckenberger, Mathias; Bares, Roland; Eich, Hans T.; Mueller, Rolf-Peter; Fuchs, Michael; Borchmann, Peter; Schicha, Harald; Diehl, Volker

    2008-01-01

    In the HD15 trial of the German Hodgkin Study Group, the negative predictive value (NPV) of positron emission tomography (PET) using [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose in advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) was evaluated. A total of 817 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive BEACOPP-based chemotherapy. After completion of chemotherapy, residual disease measuring more than or equal to 2.5 cm in diameter was assessed by PET in 311 patients. The NPV of PET was defined as the proportion of PET− patients without progression, relapse, or irradiation within 12 months after PET review panel. The progression-free survival was 96% for PET− patients (95% confidence interval [CI], 94%-99%) and 86% for PET+ patients (95% CI, 78%-95%, P = .011). The NPV for PET in this analysis was 94% (95% CI, 91%-97%). Thus, consolidation radiotherapy can be omitted in PET− patients with residual disease without increasing the risk for progression or early relapse compared with patients in complete remission. The impact of this finding on the overall survival at 5 years must be awaited. Until then, response adapted therapy guided by PET for HL patients seems to be a promising approach that should be further evaluated in clinical trials. This trial is registered at http://isrctn.org study as #ISRCTN32443041. PMID:18757777

  16. Geostatistics and remote sensing using NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery as predictive tools in tick distribution and habitat suitability estimations for Boophilus microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) in South America. National Oceanographic and Atmosphere Administration-Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer.

    PubMed

    Estrada-Peña, A

    1999-02-01

    Remote sensing based on NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmosphere Administration) satellite imagery was used, together with geostatistics (cokriging) to model the correlation between the temperature and vegetation variables and the distribution of the cattle tick, Boophilus microplus (Canestrini), in the Neotropical region. The results were used to map the B. microplus habitat suitability on a continental scale. A database of B. microplus capture localities was used, which was tabulated with the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) images from the NOAA satellite series. They were obtained at 10 days intervals between 1983 and 1994, with an 8 km resolution. A cokriging system was generated to extrapolate the results. The data for habitat suitability obtained through two vegetation and four temperature variables were strongly correlated with the known distribution of B. microplus (sensitivity 0.91; specificity 0.88) and provide a good estimation of the tick habitat suitability. This model could be used as a guide to the correct interpretation of the distribution limits of B. microplus. It can be also used to prepare eradication campaigns or to make predictions about the effects of global change on the distribution of the parasite.

  17. Advanced Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coles, Mike; Nelms, Rick

    1996-01-01

    Describes a study that explores the depth and breadth of scientific facts, principles, and procedures which are required in the Advanced General National Vocational Qualifications (GNVQ) science through comparison with GCE Advanced level. The final report takes account of the updated 1996 version of GNVQ science. (DDR)

  18. Advanced Microsensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    This video looks at a spinoff application of the technology from advanced microsensors -- those that monitor and determine conditions of spacecraft like the Space Shuttle. The application featured is concerned with the monitoring of the health of premature babies.

  19. Circulating vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) as predictive factor of progression-free survival in patients with advanced chordoma receiving sorafenib: an analysis from a phase II trial of the french sarcoma group (GSF/GETO)

    PubMed Central

    Lebellec, Loic; Bertucci, François; Tresch-Bruneel, Emmanuelle; Bompas, Emmanuelle; Toiron, Yves; Camoin, Luc; Mir, Olivier; Laurence, Valerie; Clisant, Stephanie; Decoupigny, Emilie; Blay, Jean-Yves; Goncalves, Anthony; Penel, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    Background Patients with advanced chordoma are often treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors without any predictive factor to guide decision. We report herein an ancillary analysis of the the Angionext phase II trial (NCT 00874874). Results From May 2011 to January 2014, 26 were sampled. The 9-month PFS rate was 72.9% (95%-CI: 45.9-87.9). During sorafenib treatment, a significant increase in PlGF (18.4 vs 43.8 pg/mL, p<0.001) was noted along with a non-significant increase in VEGF (0.7 vs 1.0 ng/mL, p=0.07). VEGF at D1 >1.04 ng/mL (HR=12.5, 95%-CI: 1.37-114, p=0.025) and VEGF at D7 >1.36 ng/mL (HR=10.7, 95%-CI: 1.16-98, p=0.037) were associated with shorter PFS. The 9-month PFS rate was 92.3% (95%-CI: 56.6-98.9) when VEGF at D1 was ≤1.04 ng/mL versus 23.3% (95%-CI: 1.0-63.2) when >1.04 ng/mL. Patients and Methods Chordoma patients were treated with sorafenib 800 mg/day for 9 months, unless earlier occurrence of progression or toxicities. Six biomarkers (sE-Selectin, VEGF, VEGF-C, placental growth factor (PlGF), Thrombospondin, Stem Cell Factor (SCF)) were measured at baseline (day 1: D1) and day 7 (D7). Conclusion High levels of VEGF was associated with poor outcome. PMID:27659533

  20. Factors predicting efficacy of oxaliplatin in combination with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) ± folinic acid in a compassionate-use cohort of 481 5-FU-resistant advanced colorectal cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Bensmaïne, M A; Marty, M; Gramont, A de; Brienza, S; Lévi, F; Ducreux, M; François, E; Gamelin, E; Bleiberg, H; Cvitkovic, E

    2001-01-01

    A statistical analysis was performed on the patient data collected from two compassionate-use programmes using oxaliplatin (Eloxatin®) + 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) ± folinic acid (FA), to identify predictive factors for oxaliplatin-based salvage treatment in patients with 5-FU-resistant advanced colorectal cancer (ACRC). 481 5-FU-resistant ACRC patients, most with performance status ≤ 2, ≥ 3 involved sites, and ≥ 2 prior lines of chemotherapy, received oxaliplatin + 5-FU ± FA. Prognostic factors associated with overall response rate (ORR), time to progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS) were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic and/or Cox proportional hazards analyses. The ORR was 16% (95% CI: 13–20), the median TTP was 4.2 months (95% CI: 3.4–4.6), and the median OS was 9.6 months (95% CI: 8.6–10.6). The multivariate analysis indicated poor (≥ 2 WHO) performance status (PS), a large number of prior chemotherapy regimens (≥ 3), a low baseline haemoglobin level (< 10 g/dl), and a triweekly (vs biweekly) treatment administration schedule as significantly associated (P< 0.05) with a lower ORR. Sex (male), number of organs involved (≥3) and alkaline phosphatase (AP) level (≥ 2 × the upper limit of normal) were associated (P< 0.05) with shorter TTP. Poor PS, a large number of organs involved, and elevated AP were independently and significantly correlated with shorter OS. Our analysis identified a relationship between efficacy results of oxaliplatin + 5-FU ± FA treatment in 5-FU-resistant ACRC patients and baseline prognostic factors related to PS, extent of disease and number of prior regimens. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.com PMID:11506488

  1. Prediction of ducted fan performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendenhall, M. R.; Spangler, S. B.

    1972-01-01

    Computer program to predict performance of ducted fan combination at specified advance ratio and angle of attack is described. Parameters affecting performance of ducted fan are presented. Information obtained from computer program is explained for various conditions considered.

  2. Full Field and Anomaly Initialisation using a low order climate model: a comparison, and proposals for advanced formulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weber, Robin; Carrassi, Alberto; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Volpi, Danila

    2014-05-01

    Full Field (FFI) and Anomaly Initialisation (AI) are two schemes used to initialise seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) prediction. FFI initialises the model on the best estimate of the actual climate state and minimises the initial error. However, due to inevitable model deficiencies, the trajectories drift away from the observations towards the model's own attractor, inducing a bias in the forecast. AI has been devised to tackle the impact of drift through the addition of this bias onto the observations, in the hope of gaining an initial state closer to the model attractor. Its goal is to forecast climate anomalies. The large variety of experimental setups, global coupled models, and observational networks adopted world-wide have led to varying results with regards to the relative performance of AI and FFI. Our research is firstly motivated in a comparison of these two initialisation approaches under varying circumstances of observational errors, observational distributions, and model errors. We also propose and compare two advanced schemes for s2d prediction. Least Square Initialisation (LSI) intends to propagate observational information of partially initialized systems to the whole model domain, based on standard practices in data assimilation and using the covariance of the model anomalies. Exploring the Parameters Uncertainty (EPU) is an online drift correction technique applied during the forecast run after initialisation. It is designed to estimate, and subtract, the bias in the forecast related to parametric error. Experiments are carried out using an idealized coupled dynamics in order to facilitate better control and robust statistical inference. Results show that an improvement of FFI will necessitate refinements in the observations, whereas improvements in AI are subject to model advances. A successful approximation of the model attractor using AI is guaranteed only when the differences between model and nature probability distribution functions (PDFs) are

  3. System analysis with improved thermo-mechanical fuel rod models for modeling current and advanced LWR materials in accident scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, Ian Edward

    A nuclear reactor systems code has the ability to model the system response in an accident scenario based on known initial conditions at the onset of the transient. However, there has been a tendency for these codes to lack the detailed thermo-mechanical fuel rod response models needed for accurate prediction of fuel rod failure. This proposed work will couple today's most widely used steady-state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAPTRAN) fuel rod models with a systems code TRACE for best-estimate modeling of system response in accident scenarios such as a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In doing so, code modifications will be made to model gamma heating in LWRs during steady-state and accident conditions and to improve fuel rod thermal/mechanical analysis by allowing axial nodalization of burnup-dependent phenomena such as swelling, cladding creep and oxidation. With the ability to model both burnup-dependent parameters and transient fuel rod response, a fuel dispersal study will be conducted using a hypothetical accident scenario under both PWR and BWR conditions to determine the amount of fuel dispersed under varying conditions. Due to the fuel fragmentation size and internal rod pressure both being dependent on burnup, this analysis will be conducted at beginning, middle and end of cycle to examine the effects that cycle time can play on fuel rod failure and dispersal. Current fuel rod and system codes used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are compilations of legacy codes with only commonly used light water reactor materials, Uranium Dioxide (UO2), Mixed Oxide (U/PuO 2) and zirconium alloys. However, the events at Fukushima Daiichi and Three Mile Island accident have shown the need for exploration into advanced materials possessing improved accident tolerance. This work looks to further modify the NRC codes to include silicon carbide (SiC), an advanced cladding material proposed by current DOE funded research on accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Several

  4. Advancing Reflectrometry

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-05-21

    transmissions, was first demonstrated using Global Navigation Satellite System ( GNSS ) reflections. Recently, reflectometry has been extended to digital... GNSS +R workshop provided an opportunity for engineers and Earth scientists to assess the state of the art, demonstrate new applications, and discuss...18 Eos, Vol. 94, No. 21, 21 May 2013 MEETING -.~ Advancing Reflectometry Workshop on Renectometry Using GNSS and Other Signals of Opportunity

  5. Technological Advancements

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Mike

    2010-01-01

    The influx of technology has brought significant improvements to school facilities. Many of those advancements can be found in classrooms, but when students head down the hall to use the washrooms, they are likely to find a host of technological innovations that have improved conditions in that part of the building. This article describes modern…

  6. Research Advances

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Angela G.

    2004-01-01

    Research advances, a new feature in Journal of Chemical Engineering that brings information about innovations in current areas of research to high school and college science faculty with an intent to provide educators with timely descriptions of latest progress in research that can be integrated into existing courses to update course content and…

  7. [Prognostic and predictive value of koilocytosis, expression of e6 hpv types 16/18, p16ink4a, p53 in locally advanced squamous cell carcinomas of oral cavity and oropharynx, associated with human papillomavirus].

    PubMed

    Riaboshapka, A N

    2014-11-01

    To determine the predictive and prognostic value of koilocytosis, expression of E6 HPV types 16/18, p16INK4a, p53 in patients with locally advanced HPV-associated squamous cell carcinoma of oral cavity and oropharynx. In biopsy specimens of squamous cell carcinomas of oral cavity and oropharynx from 60 patients performed koylocytes count, immunohistochemical detection of HPV 16/18 types E6 protein, proteins p16INK4a and p53. Koilocytosis was detected in 50 patients (83.3%); in all 60 patients (100%) were simultaneous expression of p16INK4a and E6 HPV types 16/18; p53 expression was found in 37 patients (61.7%). After combined treatment (induction chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy) stable disease (SD) was detected in 11 patients (18.3%), partial response (PR) - in 25 patients (41.7%), complete response (CR) - in 24 patients (40.0%). There were no cases of disease progression. Treatment effect correlated with expression of p16INK4a (ρ = 0.3, p = 0.024) and expression of p53 (ρ = - 0.3, p = 0.019). Patients with a low expression of p16INK4a (2 points) and high expression of p53 (4 "+") had a high level of SD and had no CR. For all patients, the median of overall survival (OS) was 17 months, 1-year cumulative survival rate was 66.7%, 2-year cumulative survival rate - 35.0%. Median of overall survival was correlated with koilocytosis (ρ=0.5, p<0,001) and expression of E6 HPV types 16/18 (ρ=0.9, p<0.001), p16INK4a (ρ=0.9, p=0.037), p53 (ρ=-0.9; p<0.001). Patients with low expression of p53 (0 and 1 "+") had cumulative 1-year survival rates 87% and 90%, respectively (p<0.001), 2-year survival rates - 52% and 80%, respectively (p=0.015). In the Cox proportional hazards model the significant prognostic factors were prevalence of primary tumor (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.3 - 3.5, p=0.003) and p53 expression (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1=1.7, p=0.016). High expression of p16INK4a associated with a high effect of combined treatment, high expression of a p53 - with low effect of

  8. Advanced far infrared detectors

    SciTech Connect

    Haller, E.E.

    1993-05-01

    Recent advances in photoconductive and bolometric semiconductor detectors for wavelength 1 mm > {lambda} > 50 {mu}m are reviewed. Progress in detector performance in this photon energy range has been stimulated by new and stringent requirements for ground based, high altitude and space-borne telescopes for astronomical and astrophysical observations. The paper consists of chapters dealing with the various types of detectors: Be and Ga doped Ge photoconductors, stressed Ge:Ga devices and neutron transmutation doped Ge thermistors. Advances in the understanding of basic detector physics and the introduction of modern semiconductor device technology have led to predictable and reliable fabrication techniques. Integration of detectors into functional arrays has become feasible and is vigorously pursued by groups worldwide.

  9. Advanced Combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Holcomb, Gordon R.

    2013-03-11

    The activity reported in this presentation is to provide the mechanical and physical property information needed to allow rational design, development and/or choice of alloys, manufacturing approaches, and environmental exposure and component life models to enable oxy-fuel combustion boilers to operate at Ultra-Supercritical (up to 650{degrees}C & between 22-30 MPa) and/or Advanced Ultra-Supercritical conditions (760{degrees}C & 35 MPa).

  10. Climate prediction and predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Climate prediction is generally accepted to be one of the grand challenges of the Geophysical Sciences. What is less widely acknowledged is that fundamental issues have yet to be resolved concerning the nature of the challenge, even after decades of research in this area. How do we verify or falsify a probabilistic forecast of a singular event such as anthropogenic warming over the 21st century? How do we determine the information content of a climate forecast? What does it mean for a modelling system to be "good enough" to forecast a particular variable? How will we know when models and forecasting systems are "good enough" to provide detailed forecasts of weather at specific locations or, for example, the risks associated with global geo-engineering schemes. This talk will provide an overview of these questions in the light of recent developments in multi-decade climate forecasting, drawing on concepts from information theory, machine learning and statistics. I will draw extensively but not exclusively from the experience of the climateprediction.net project, running multiple versions of climate models on personal computers.

  11. Improved methodology for integral analysis of advanced reactors employing passive safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muftuoglu, A. Kursad

    After four decades of experience with pressurized water reactors, a new generation of nuclear plants are emerging. These advanced designs employ passive safety which relies on natural forces, such as gravity and natural circulation. The new concept of passive safety also necessitates improvement in computational tools available for best-estimate analyses. The system codes originally designed for high pressure conditions in the presence of strong momentum sources such as pumps are challenged in many ways. Increased interaction of the primary system with the containment necessitates a tool for integral analysis. This study addresses some of these concerns. An improved tool for integral analysis coupling primary system with containment calculation is also presented. The code package is based on RELAP5 and CONTAIN programs, best-estimate thermal-hydraulics code for primary system analysis and containment code for containment analysis, respectively. The suitability is demonstrated with a postulated small break loss of coolant accident analysis of Westinghouse AP600 plant. The thesis explains the details of the analysis including the coupling model.

  12. Advanced fuel chemistry for advanced engines.

    SciTech Connect

    Taatjes, Craig A.; Jusinski, Leonard E.; Zador, Judit; Fernandes, Ravi X.; Miller, James A.

    2009-09-01

    Autoignition chemistry is central to predictive modeling of many advanced engine designs that combine high efficiency and low inherent pollutant emissions. This chemistry, and especially its pressure dependence, is poorly known for fuels derived from heavy petroleum and for biofuels, both of which are becoming increasingly prominent in the nation's fuel stream. We have investigated the pressure dependence of key ignition reactions for a series of molecules representative of non-traditional and alternative fuels. These investigations combined experimental characterization of hydroxyl radical production in well-controlled photolytically initiated oxidation and a hybrid modeling strategy that linked detailed quantum chemistry and computational kinetics of critical reactions with rate-equation models of the global chemical system. Comprehensive mechanisms for autoignition generally ignore the pressure dependence of branching fractions in the important alkyl + O{sub 2} reaction systems; however we have demonstrated that pressure-dependent 'formally direct' pathways persist at in-cylinder pressures.

  13. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-01-26

    Calculate monthly mean diurnal cycle based on the hourly CMBE data with qcflag >=-1 (>30% valid data within the averaged hour). For 2-D clouds, only data over the period when both MMCR and MPL were working are used.

  14. Best estimate of luminal cross-sectional area of coronary arteries from angiograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, P. L.; Selzer, R. H.

    1988-01-01

    We have reexamined the problem of estimating the luminal area of an elliptically-shaped coronary artery cross section from two or more radiographic diameter measurements. The expected error is found to be much smaller than the maximum potential error. In the cae of two orthogonal views, closed form expressions have been derived for calculating the area and the uncertainty. Assuming that the underlying ellipse has limited ellipticity (major/minor axis ratio less than five), it is shown that the average uncertainty in the area is less than 14 percent. When more than two views are available, we suggest using a least-squares fit method to extract all available information from the data.

  15. The Lifetime Prevalence of Anabolic-Androgenic Steroid Use and Dependence in Americans: Current Best Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Pope, Harrison G.; Kanayama, Gen; Athey, Alison; Ryan, Erin; Hudson, James I.; Baggish, Aaron

    2013-01-01

    Background and Objectives Although various surveys have tracked the prevalence of anabolic-androgenic steroid (AAS) use in American teenagers and young adults, no recent surveys have assessed the lifetime prevalence of AAS use in Americans overall. We therefore analyzed serial youth-survey data to derive estimates of the lifetime prevalence of AAS use in the current American general population. Methods We first determined the distribution of age of onset of AAS use, based on pooled data from nine studies. Using this distribution, we then developed equations to project the eventual lifetime prevalence of AAS use among young survey respondents, once they aged and completed the period of risk for initiating AAS. We similarly calculated the denominator of lifetimes of risk for AAS use in the total American population. We next applied these equations to four independent national youth datasets to derive current American general-population estimates for lifetime AAS use. Finally, using data from 10 pooled studies, we estimated the lifetime prevalence of AAS dependence among AAS users. Results Age-of-onset studies consistently showed that AAS use begins later than most drugs, with only 22% of users (95% confidence interval: 19%–25%) starting before age 20. Applying the age-of-onset findings to national youth datasets, we estimated that among Americans currently age 13 to 50 years, 2.9–4.0 million have used AAS. Within this group, roughly 1 million may have experienced AAS dependence. Conclusions and Scientific Significance Although subject to various limitations, our estimation techniques suggest a surprisinigly high prevalence of AAS use and dependence among Americans. PMID:24112239

  16. Enhancement/upgrade of Engine Structures Technology Best Estimator (EST/BEST) Software System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, Ashwin

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the work performed during the contract period and the capabilities included in the EST/BEST software system. The developed EST/BEST software system includes the integrated NESSUS, IPACS, COBSTRAN, and ALCCA computer codes required to perform the engine cycle mission and component structural analysis. Also, the interactive input generator for NESSUS, IPACS, and COBSTRAN computer codes have been developed and integrated with the EST/BEST software system. The input generator allows the user to create input from scratch as well as edit existing input files interactively. Since it has been integrated with the EST/BEST software system, it enables the user to modify EST/BEST generated files and perform the analysis to evaluate the benefits. Appendix A gives details of how to use the newly added features in the EST/BEST software system.

  17. Challenger STS-17 (41-G) post-flight best estimate trajectory products: Development and summary results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, G. M.; Heck, M. L.; Mcconnell, J. G.; Waters, L. A.; Troutman, P. A.; Findlay, J. T.

    1985-01-01

    Results from the STS-17 (41-G) post-flight products are presented. Operational Instrumentation recorder gaps, coupled with the limited tracking coverage available for this high inclination entry profile, necessitated selection of an anchor epoch for reconstruction corresponding to an unusually low altitude of h approx. 297 kft. The final inertial trajectory obtained, BT17N26/UN=169750N, is discussed in Section I, i.e., relative to the problems encountered with the OI and ACIP recorded data on this Challenger flight. Atmospheric selection, again in view of the ground track displacement from the remote meteorological sites, constituted a major problem area as discussed in Section II. The LAIRS file provided by Langley was adopted, with NOAA data utilized over the lowermost approx. 7 kft. As discussed in Section II, the Extended BET, ST17BET/UN=274885C, suggests a limited upper altitude (H approx. 230 kft) for which meaningful flight extraction can be expected. This is further demonstrated, though not considered a limitation, in Section III wherein summary results from the AEROBET (NJ0333 with NJ0346 as duplicate) are presented. GTFILEs were generated only for the selected IMU (IMU2) and the Rate Gyro Assembly/Accelerometer Assembly data due to the loss of ACIP data. Appendices attached present inputs for the generation of the post-flight products (Appendix A), final residual plots (Appendix B), a two second spaced listing of the relevant parameters from the Extended BET (Appendix C), and an archival section (Appendix D) devoting input (source) and output files and/or physical reels.

  18. ARM Best Estimate Data (ARMBE) Products for Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Riihimaki, Laura; Gaustad, Krista; McFarlane, Sally

    2014-06-12

    This data set was created for the Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) model testbed project and is an extension of the hourly average ARMBE dataset to other extended facility sites and to include uncertainty estimates. Uncertainty estimates were needed in order to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques with the data.

  19. The ARM Southern Great Plains Central Facility Best Estimate Radiative Flux CD

    SciTech Connect

    Long, CN

    2002-04-01

    The BEFlux VAP directly compares data from the three Normal Incidence Perheliometers, shaded pyranometers, and shaded pyrgeometers at the SGP CF. Extensive analysis with several years of data has produced limits of typical ranges of agreement when these instruments are performing as expected. These limits are used to screen the data, and then the average is taken of the two that agree best, given that at least two instruments agree to within the established limits. This is done for the downwelling direct normal and diffuse shortwave, and the downwelling longwave. The total (global) downwelling shortwave is then the sum of the direct and diffuse components.

  20. Clouds and more: ARM climate modeling best estimate data: A new data product for climate studies

    DOE PAGES

    Xie, Shaocheng; McCoy, Renata B.; Klein, Stephen A.; ...

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program (www.arm.gov) was created in 1989 to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation atmosphere. Here, a central activity is the acquisition of detailed observations of clouds and radiation, as well as related atmospheric variables for climate model evaluation and improvement.

  1. Advanced Chemistry Basins Model

    SciTech Connect

    William Goddard; Mario Blanco; Lawrence Cathles; Paul Manhardt; Peter Meulbroek; Yongchun Tang

    2002-11-10

    The DOE-funded Advanced Chemistry Basin model project is intended to develop a public domain, user-friendly basin modeling software under PC or low end workstation environment that predicts hydrocarbon generation, expulsion, migration and chemistry. The main features of the software are that it will: (1) afford users the most flexible way to choose or enter kinetic parameters for different maturity indicators; (2) afford users the most flexible way to choose or enter compositional kinetic parameters to predict hydrocarbon composition (e.g., gas/oil ratio (GOR), wax content, API gravity, etc.) at different kerogen maturities; (3) calculate the chemistry, fluxes and physical properties of all hydrocarbon phases (gas, liquid and solid) along the primary and secondary migration pathways of the basin and predict the location and intensity of phase fractionation, mixing, gas washing, etc.; and (4) predict the location and intensity of de-asphaltene processes. The project has be operative for 36 months, and is on schedule for a successful completion at the end of FY 2003.

  2. Advanced LIGO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Aasi, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T.; Abernathy, M. R.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V.; Affeldt, C.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Alemic, A.; Allen, B.; Amariutei, D.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C.; Areeda, J. S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, S.; Aston, S. M.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Aylott, B. E.; Babak, S.; Baker, P. T.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barbet, M.; Barclay, S.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Bartlett, J.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Behnke, B.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C.; Benacquista, M.; Bergman, J.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Biscans, S.; Biwer, C.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bojtos, P.; Bond, C.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Bose, Sukanta; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Brau, J. E.; Bridges, D. O.; Brinkmann, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Buchman, S.; Buikema, A.; Buonanno, A.; Cadonati, L.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Caride, S.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cepeda, C.; Chakraborty, R.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chen, Y.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Collette, C.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Countryman, S.; Couvares, P.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cutler, C.; Dahl, K.; Dal Canton, T.; Damjanic, M.; Danilishin, S. L.; Danzmann, K.; Dartez, L.; Dave, I.; Daveloza, H.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; DeBra, D.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; D´ıaz, M.; Di Palma, I.; Dojcinoski, G.; Dominguez, E.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Dwyer, S.; Eberle, T.; Edo, T.; Edwards, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Essick, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Factourovich, M.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Feldbaum, D.; Ferreira, E. C.; Fisher, R. P.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fuentes-Tapia, S.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gair, J. R.; Gaonkar, S.; Gehrels, N.; Gergely, L. Á.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Gleason, J.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gordon, N.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S.; Goßler, S.; Gräf, C.; Graff, P. B.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guido, C. J.; Guo, X.; Gushwa, K.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Hanke, M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Hee, S.; Heintze, M.; Heinzel, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Hollitt, S. E.; Holt, K.; Hopkins, P.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Houston, E.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh, M.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Idrisy, A.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Islas, G.; Isler, J. C.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacobson, M.; Jang, H.; Jawahar, S.; Ji, Y.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Ju, L.; Haris, K.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, H.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kawazoe, F.; Keiser, G. M.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Key, J. S.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, C.; Kim, K.; Kim, N. G.; Kim, N.; Kim, Y.-M.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kline, J.; Koehlenbeck, S.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, P.; Kuo, L.; Landry, M.; Lantz, B.; Larson, S.; Lasky, P. D.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Le, J.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Leong, J. R.; Levin, Y.; Levine, B.; Lewis, J.; Li, T. G. F.; Libbrecht, K.; Libson, A.; Lin, A. C.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lockett, V.; Logue, J.; Lombardi, A. L.; Lormand, M.; Lough, J.; Lubinski, M. J.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macarthur, J.; MacDonald, T.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magee, R.; Mageswaran, M.; Maglione, C.; Mailand, K.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Maros, E.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martynov, D.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Massinger, T. J.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McLin, K.; McWilliams, S.; Meadors, G. D.; Meinders, M.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyers, P. M.; Miao, H.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Miller, A.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moe, B.; Mohanty, S. D.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moore, B.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nash, T.; Nayak, R. K.; Necula, V.; Nedkova, K.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A. H.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, R.; O'Reilly, B.; Ortega, W.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ott, C. D.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Padilla, C.; Pai, A.; Pai, S.; Palashov, O.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H.; Patrick, Z.; Pedraza, M.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Phelps, M.; Pierro, V.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poeld, J.; Post, A.; Poteomkin, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Premachandra, S.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Pürrer, M.; Qin, J.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E.; Quiroga, G.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajalakshmi, G.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramirez, K.; Raymond, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Reula, O.; Riles, K.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V.; Romano, J. D.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sannibale, V.; Santiago-Prieto, I.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Sawadsky, A.; Scheuer, J.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sergeev, A.; Serna, G.; Sevigny, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shao, Z.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sidery, T. L.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L.; Singh, R.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith-Lefebvre, N. D.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Souradeep, T.; Staley, A.; Stebbins, J.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Steplewski, S.; Stevenson, S.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sutton, P. J.; Szczepanczyk, M.; Szeifert, G.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Tellez, G.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, V.; Tomlinson, C.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Traylor, G.; Tse, M.; Tshilumba, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Vincent-Finley, R.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vorvick, C.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Wessels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Williams, L.; Williams, R.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Worden, J.; Xie, S.; Yablon, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yang, Q.; Zanolin, M.; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S.; Zweizig, J.

    2015-04-01

    The Advanced LIGO gravitational wave detectors are second-generation instruments designed and built for the two LIGO observatories in Hanford, WA and Livingston, LA, USA. The two instruments are identical in design, and are specialized versions of a Michelson interferometer with 4 km long arms. As in Initial LIGO, Fabry-Perot cavities are used in the arms to increase the interaction time with a gravitational wave, and power recycling is used to increase the effective laser power. Signal recycling has been added in Advanced LIGO to improve the frequency response. In the most sensitive frequency region around 100 Hz, the design strain sensitivity is a factor of 10 better than Initial LIGO. In addition, the low frequency end of the sensitivity band is moved from 40 Hz down to 10 Hz. All interferometer components have been replaced with improved technologies to achieve this sensitivity gain. Much better seismic isolation and test mass suspensions are responsible for the gains at lower frequencies. Higher laser power, larger test masses and improved mirror coatings lead to the improved sensitivity at mid and high frequencies. Data collecting runs with these new instruments are planned to begin in mid-2015.

  3. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  4. Aeroacoustics of advanced propellers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groeneweg, John F.

    1990-01-01

    The aeroacoustics of advanced, high speed propellers (propfans) are reviewed from the perspective of NASA research conducted in support of the Advanced Turboprop Program. Aerodynamic and acoustic components of prediction methods for near and far field noise are summarized for both single and counterrotation propellers in uninstalled and configurations. Experimental results from tests at both takeoff/approach and cruise conditions are reviewed with emphasis on: (1) single and counterrotation model tests in the NASA Lewis 9 by 15 (low speed) and 8 by 6 (high speed) wind tunnels, and (2) full scale flight tests of a 9 ft (2.74 m) diameter single rotation wing mounted tractor and a 11.7 ft (3.57 m) diameter counterrotation aft mounted pusher propeller. Comparisons of model data projected to flight with full scale flight data show good agreement validating the scale model wind tunnel approach. Likewise, comparisons of measured and predicted noise level show excellent agreement for both single and counterrotation propellers. Progress in describing angle of attack and installation effects is also summarized. Finally, the aeroacoustic issues associated with ducted propellers (very high bypass fans) are discussed.

  5. Advanced Pacemaker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Synchrony, developed by St. Jude Medical's Cardiac Rhythm Management Division (formerly known as Pacesetter Systems, Inc.) is an advanced state-of-the-art implantable pacemaker that closely matches the natural rhythm of the heart. The companion element of the Synchrony Pacemaker System is the Programmer Analyzer APS-II which allows a doctor to reprogram and fine tune the pacemaker to each user's special requirements without surgery. The two-way communications capability that allows the physician to instruct and query the pacemaker is accomplished by bidirectional telemetry. APS-II features 28 pacing functions and thousands of programming combinations to accommodate diverse lifestyles. Microprocessor unit also records and stores pertinent patient data up to a year.

  6. Predictive models in urology.

    PubMed

    Cestari, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Predictive modeling is emerging as an important knowledge-based technology in healthcare. The interest in the use of predictive modeling reflects advances on different fronts such as the availability of health information from increasingly complex databases and electronic health records, a better understanding of causal or statistical predictors of health, disease processes and multifactorial models of ill-health and developments in nonlinear computer models using artificial intelligence or neural networks. These new computer-based forms of modeling are increasingly able to establish technical credibility in clinical contexts. The current state of knowledge is still quite young in understanding the likely future direction of how this so-called 'machine intelligence' will evolve and therefore how current relatively sophisticated predictive models will evolve in response to improvements in technology, which is advancing along a wide front. Predictive models in urology are gaining progressive popularity not only for academic and scientific purposes but also into the clinical practice with the introduction of several nomograms dealing with the main fields of onco-urology.

  7. Emerging Approaches in Predictive Toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Luoping; McHale, Cliona M.; Greene, Nigel; Snyder, Ronald D.; Rich, Ivan N.; Aardema, Marilyn J.; Roy, Shambhu; Pfuhler, Stefan; Venkatactahalam, Sundaresan

    2016-01-01

    Predictive toxicology plays an important role in the assessment of toxicity of chemicals and the drug development process. While there are several well-established in vitro and in vivo assays that are suitable for predictive toxicology, recent advances in high-throughput analytical technologies and model systems are expected to have a major impact on the field of predictive toxicology. This commentary provides an overview of the state of the current science and a brief discussion on future perspectives for the field of predictive toxicology for human toxicity. Computational models for predictive toxicology, needs for further refinement and obstacles to expand computational models to include additional classes of chemical compounds are highlighted. Functional and comparative genomics approaches in predictive toxicology are discussed with an emphasis on successful utilization of recently developed model systems for high-throughput analysis. The advantages of three-dimensional model systems and stem cells and their use in predictive toxicology testing are also described. PMID:25044351

  8. Graphing Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connery, Keely Flynn

    2007-01-01

    Graphing predictions is especially important in classes where relationships between variables need to be explored and derived. In this article, the author describes how his students sketch the graphs of their predictions before they begin their investigations on two laboratory activities: Distance Versus Time Cart Race Lab and Resistance; and…

  9. Intra-and-Inter Species Biomass Prediction in a Plantation Forest: Testing the Utility of High Spatial Resolution Spaceborne Multispectral RapidEye Sensor and Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms

    PubMed Central

    Dube, Timothy; Mutanga, Onisimo; Adam, Elhadi; Ismail, Riyad

    2014-01-01

    The quantification of aboveground biomass using remote sensing is critical for better understanding the role of forests in carbon sequestration and for informed sustainable management. Although remote sensing techniques have been proven useful in assessing forest biomass in general, more is required to investigate their capabilities in predicting intra-and-inter species biomass which are mainly characterised by non-linear relationships. In this study, we tested two machine learning algorithms, Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) and Random Forest (RF) regression trees to predict intra-and-inter species biomass using high resolution RapidEye reflectance bands as well as the derived vegetation indices in a commercial plantation. The results showed that the SGB algorithm yielded the best performance for intra-and-inter species biomass prediction; using all the predictor variables as well as based on the most important selected variables. For example using the most important variables the algorithm produced an R2 of 0.80 and RMSE of 16.93 t·ha−1 for E. grandis; R2 of 0.79, RMSE of 17.27 t·ha−1 for P. taeda and R2 of 0.61, RMSE of 43.39 t·ha−1 for the combined species data sets. Comparatively, RF yielded plausible results only for E. dunii (R2 of 0.79; RMSE of 7.18 t·ha−1). We demonstrated that although the two statistical methods were able to predict biomass accurately, RF produced weaker results as compared to SGB when applied to combined species dataset. The result underscores the relevance of stochastic models in predicting biomass drawn from different species and genera using the new generation high resolution RapidEye sensor with strategically positioned bands. PMID:25140631

  10. Visual prediction and perceptual expertise

    PubMed Central

    Cheung, Olivia S.; Bar, Moshe

    2012-01-01

    Making accurate predictions about what may happen in the environment requires analogies between perceptual input and associations in memory. These elements of predictions are based on cortical representations, but little is known about how these processes can be enhanced by experience and training. On the other hand, studies on perceptual expertise have revealed that the acquisition of expertise leads to strengthened associative processing among features or objects, suggesting that predictions and expertise may be tightly connected. Here we review the behavioral and neural findings regarding the mechanisms involving prediction and expert processing, and highlight important possible overlaps between them. Future investigation should examine the relations among perception, memory and prediction skills as a function of expertise. The knowledge gained by this line of research will have implications for visual cognition research, and will advance our understanding of how the human brain can improve its ability to predict by learning from experience. PMID:22123523

  11. Fan Noise Prediction: Status and Needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huff, Dennis L.

    1997-01-01

    The prediction of fan noise is an important part to the prediction of overall turbofan engine noise. Advances in computers and better understanding of the flow physics have allowed researchers to compute sound generation from first principles and rely less on empirical correlations. While progress has been made, there are still many aspects of the problem that need to be explored. This paper presents some recent advances in fan noise prediction and suggests areas that still need further development. Fan noise predictions that support the recommendations are taken from existing publications.

  12. Advanced Virgo phase cameras

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Schaaf, L.; Agatsuma, K.; van Beuzekom, M.; Gebyehu, M.; van den Brand, J.

    2016-05-01

    A century after the prediction of gravitational waves, detectors have reached the sensitivity needed to proof their existence. One of them, the Virgo interferometer in Pisa, is presently being upgraded to Advanced Virgo (AdV) and will come into operation in 2016. The power stored in the interferometer arms raises from 20 to 700 kW. This increase is expected to introduce higher order modes in the beam, which could reduce the circulating power in the interferometer, limiting the sensitivity of the instrument. To suppress these higher-order modes, the core optics of Advanced Virgo is equipped with a thermal compensation system. Phase cameras, monitoring the real-time status of the beam constitute a critical component of this compensation system. These cameras measure the phases and amplitudes of the laser-light fields at the frequencies selected to control the interferometer. The measurement combines heterodyne detection with a scan of the wave front over a photodetector with pin-hole aperture. Three cameras observe the phase front of these laser sidebands. Two of them monitor the in-and output of the interferometer arms and the third one is used in the control of the aberrations introduced by the power recycling cavity. In this paper the working principle of the phase cameras is explained and some characteristic parameters are described.

  13. SCIENCE BRIEF: ADVANCED CONCEPTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research on advanced concepts will evaluate and demonstrate the application of innovative infrastructure designs, management procedures and operational approaches. Advanced concepts go beyond simple asset management. The infusion of these advanced concepts into established wastew...

  14. Advanced Motors

    SciTech Connect

    Knoth, Edward A; Chelluri, Bhanumathi; Schumaker, Edward J

    2012-12-14

    vProject Summary Transportation energy usage is predicted to increase substantially by 2020. Hybrid vehicles and fuel cell powered vehicles are destined to become more prominent as fuel prices rise with the demand. Hybrid and fuel cell vehicle platforms are both dependent on high performance electric motors. Electric motors for transportation duty will require sizeable low-speed torque to accelerate the vehicle. As motor speed increases, the torque requirement decreases which results in a nearly constant power motor output. Interior permanent magnet synchronous motors (IPMSM) are well suited for this duty. , , These rotor geometries are configured in straight lines and semi circular arc shapes. These designs are of limited configurations because of the lack of availability of permanent magnets of any other shapes at present. We propose to fabricate rotors via a novel processing approach where we start with magnet powders and compact them into a net shape rotor in a single step. Using this approach, widely different rotor designs can be implemented for efficiency. The current limitation on magnet shape and thickness will be eliminated. This is accomplished by co-filling magnet and soft iron powders at specified locations in intricate shapes using specially designed dies and automatic powder filling station. The process fundamentals for accomplishing occurred under a previous Applied Technology Program titled, Motors and Generators for the 21st Century. New efficient motor designs that are not currently possible (or cost prohibitive) can be accomplished by this approach. Such an approach to motor fabrication opens up a new dimension in motor design. Feasibility Results We were able to optimize a IPMSM rotor to take advantage of the powder co-filling and DMC compaction processing methods. The minimum low speed torque requirement of 5 N-m can be met through an optimized design with magnet material having a Br capability of 0.2 T. This level of magnetic performance can

  15. Soluble programmed death-ligand 1 (sPDL1) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) predicts survival in advanced biliary tract cancer patients treated with palliative chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Ha, Hyerim; Nam, Ah-Rong; Bang, Ju-Hee; Park, Ji-Eun; Kim, Tae-Yong; Lee, Kyung-Hun; Han, Sae-Won; Im, Seock-Ah; Kim, Tae-You; Bang, Yung-Jue; Oh, Do-Youn

    2016-11-22

    Programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression in tumor tissue is under investigation as a candidate biomarker in immuno-oncology dug development. The soluble form of PD-L1 (sPDL1) is suggested to have immunosuppressive activity. In this study, we measured the serum level of sPDL1 and evaluated its prognostic implication in biliary tract cancer (BTC). Blood was collected from 158 advanced BTC patients (68 intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, 56 gallbladder cancer, 22 extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and 12 ampulla of vater cancer) before initiation of palliative chemotherapy. Serum sPDL1 was measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Clinical data included neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII, neutrophil × platelet/lymphocyte). The patients were assigned to two cohorts (training and validation cohort) using a simple random sampling method to validate the cut-off value of each marker. Validation was performed using a twofold cross-validation method. Overall survival (OS) of all patients was 9.07 months (95% CI: 8.20-11.33). Median sPDL1 was 1.20 ng/mL (range 0.03-7.28, mean 1.50, SD 1.22). Median NLR, PLR and SII were 2.60, 142.85 and 584.93, respectively. Patients with high sPDL1 (≥0.94 ng/mL) showed worse OS than patients with low sPDL1 (7.93 vs. 14.10 months, HR 1.891 (1.35-2.65), p<0.001). In multivariate analysis, high sPDL1 and NLR were independent poor prognostic factors. In conclusion, serum sPDL1 can be measured and has significant role on the prognosis of advanced BTC patients treated with palliative chemotherapy.

  16. Soluble programmed death-ligand 1 (sPDL1) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) predicts survival in advanced biliary tract cancer patients treated with palliative chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Ha, Hyerim; Nam, Ah-Rong; Bang, Ju-Hee; Park, Ji-Eun; Kim, Tae-Yong; Lee, Kyung-Hun; Han, Sae-Won; Im, Seock-Ah; Kim, Tae-You; Bang, Yung-Jue; Oh, Do-Youn

    2016-01-01

    Programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression in tumor tissue is under investigation as a candidate biomarker in immuno-oncology dug development. The soluble form of PD-L1 (sPDL1) is suggested to have immunosuppressive activity. In this study, we measured the serum level of sPDL1 and evaluated its prognostic implication in biliary tract cancer (BTC). Blood was collected from 158 advanced BTC patients (68 intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, 56 gallbladder cancer, 22 extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and 12 ampulla of vater cancer) before initiation of palliative chemotherapy. Serum sPDL1 was measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Clinical data included neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII, neutrophil × platelet/lymphocyte). The patients were assigned to two cohorts (training and validation cohort) using a simple random sampling method to validate the cut-off value of each marker. Validation was performed using a twofold cross-validation method. Overall survival (OS) of all patients was 9.07 months (95% CI: 8.20-11.33). Median sPDL1 was 1.20 ng/mL (range 0.03-7.28, mean 1.50, SD 1.22). Median NLR, PLR and SII were 2.60, 142.85 and 584.93, respectively. Patients with high sPDL1 (≥0.94 ng/mL) showed worse OS than patients with low sPDL1 (7.93 vs. 14.10 months, HR 1.891 (1.35-2.65), p<0.001). In multivariate analysis, high sPDL1 and NLR were independent poor prognostic factors. In conclusion, serum sPDL1 can be measured and has significant role on the prognosis of advanced BTC patients treated with palliative chemotherapy. PMID:27780932

  17. PREDICTIVE MODELS

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, R.M. )

    1986-12-01

    PREDICTIVE MODELS is a collection of five models - CFPM, CO2PM, ICPM, PFPM, and SFPM - used in the 1982-1984 National Petroleum Council study of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential. Each pertains to a specific EOR process designed to squeeze additional oil from aging or spent oil fields. The processes are: 1) chemical flooding, where soap-like surfactants are injected into the reservoir to wash out the oil; 2) carbon dioxide miscible flooding, where carbon dioxide mixes with the lighter hydrocarbons making the oil easier to displace; 3) in-situ combustion, which uses the heat from burning some of the underground oil to thin the product; 4) polymer flooding, where thick, cohesive material is pumped into a reservoir to push the oil through the underground rock; and 5) steamflood, where pressurized steam is injected underground to thin the oil. CFPM, the Chemical Flood Predictive Model, models micellar (surfactant)-polymer floods in reservoirs, which have been previously waterflooded to residual oil saturation. Thus, only true tertiary floods are considered. An option allows a rough estimate of oil recovery by caustic or caustic-polymer processes. CO2PM, the Carbon Dioxide miscible flooding Predictive Model, is applicable to both secondary (mobile oil) and tertiary (residual oil) floods, and to either continuous CO2 injection or water-alternating gas processes. ICPM, the In-situ Combustion Predictive Model, computes the recovery and profitability of an in-situ combustion project from generalized performance predictive algorithms. PFPM, the Polymer Flood Predictive Model, is switch-selectable for either polymer or waterflooding, and an option allows the calculation of the incremental oil recovery and economics of polymer relative to waterflooding. SFPM, the Steamflood Predictive Model, is applicable to the steam drive process, but not to cyclic steam injection (steam soak) processes.

  18. Can we predict the unpredictable?

    PubMed

    Golestani, Abbas; Gras, Robin

    2014-10-30

    Time series forecasting is of fundamental importance for a variety of domains including the prediction of earthquakes, financial market prediction, and the prediction of epileptic seizures. We present an original approach that brings a novel perspective to the field of long-term time series forecasting. Nonlinear properties of a time series are evaluated and used for long-term predictions. We used financial time series, medical time series and climate time series to evaluate our method. The results we obtained show that the long-term prediction of complex nonlinear time series is no longer unrealistic. The new method has the ability to predict the long-term evolutionary trend of stock market time series, and it attained an accuracy level with 100% sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of epileptic seizures up to 17 minutes in advance based on data from 21 epileptic patients. Our new method also predicted the trend of increasing global temperature in the last 30 years with a high level of accuracy. Thus, our method for making long-term time series predictions is vastly superior to existing methods. We therefore believe that our proposed method has the potential to be applied to many other domains to generate accurate and useful long-term predictions.

  19. Can we predict the unpredictable?

    PubMed Central

    Golestani, Abbas; Gras, Robin

    2014-01-01

    Time series forecasting is of fundamental importance for a variety of domains including the prediction of earthquakes, financial market prediction, and the prediction of epileptic seizures. We present an original approach that brings a novel perspective to the field of long-term time series forecasting. Nonlinear properties of a time series are evaluated and used for long-term predictions. We used financial time series, medical time series and climate time series to evaluate our method. The results we obtained show that the long-term prediction of complex nonlinear time series is no longer unrealistic. The new method has the ability to predict the long-term evolutionary trend of stock market time series, and it attained an accuracy level with 100% sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of epileptic seizures up to 17 minutes in advance based on data from 21 epileptic patients. Our new method also predicted the trend of increasing global temperature in the last 30 years with a high level of accuracy. Thus, our method for making long-term time series predictions is vastly superior to existing methods. We therefore believe that our proposed method has the potential to be applied to many other domains to generate accurate and useful long-term predictions. PMID:25355427

  20. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. Part 2: Theoretical development of a dynamic model and application to rain fade durations and tolerable control delays for fade countermeasures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1987-01-01

    A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.

  1. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Advanced Seismic Soil Structure Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Bolisetti, Chandrakanth; Coleman, Justin Leigh

    2015-06-01

    Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in some instances the current SPRA approach has large uncertainties, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRA’s are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (this is the estimate of all likely damaging earthquakes at the site of interest) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, 2) fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and 3) systems analysis. Two areas where NLSSI effects may be important in SPRA calculations are, 1) when calculating in-structure response at the area of interest, and 2) calculation of seismic fragilities (current fragility calculations assume a lognormal distribution for probability of failure of components). Some important effects when using NLSSI in the SPRA calculation process include, 1) gapping and sliding, 2) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of foundations atop soil, 3) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of deeply embedded structures, 4) soil dilatancy, 5) soil liquefaction, 6) surface waves, 7) buoyancy, 8) concrete cracking and 9) seismic isolation The focus of the research task presented here-in is on implementation of NLSSI into the SPRA calculation process when calculating in-structure response at the area

  2. ENSO predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larson, Sarah Michelle

    The overarching goal of this work is to explore seasonal El Nino -- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. More specifically, this work investigates how intrinsic variability affects ENSO predictability using a state-of-the-art climate model. Topics related to the effects of systematic model errors and external forcing are not included in this study. Intrinsic variability encompasses a hierarchy of temporal and spatial scales, from high frequency small-scale noise-driven processes including coupled instabilities to low frequency large-scale deterministic climate modes. The former exemplifies what can be considered intrinsic "noise" in the climate system that hinders predictability by promoting rapid error growth whereas the latter often provides the slow thermal ocean inertia that supplies the coupled ENSO system with predictability. These two ends of the spectrum essentially provide the lower and upper bounds of ENSO predictability that can be attributed to internal variability. The effects of noise-driven coupled instabilities on sea surface temperature (SST) predictability in the ENSO region is quantified by utilizing a novel coupled model methodology paired with an ensemble approach. The experimental design allows for rapid growth of intrinsic perturbations that are not prescribed. Several cases exhibit sufficiently rapid growth to produce ENSO-like final states that do not require a previous ENSO event, large-scale wind trigger, or subsurface heat content precursor. Results challenge conventional ENSO theory that considers the subsurface precursor as a necessary condition for ENSO. Noise-driven SST error growth exhibits strong seasonality and dependence on the initialization month. A dynamical analysis reveals that much of the error growth behavior is linked to the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback in the model, indicating that the noise-induced perturbations grow via an ENSO-like mechanism. The daily error fields reveal that persistent

  3. Dropout Prediction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curtis, Jonathan; And Others

    Secondary school students who drop out of school are put at great social and economic disadvantage. If potential dropouts can be identified early, prevention may be possible. To construct a prediction model which, through readily available school information, will aid in the identification of students likely to drop out, schools in the Austin,…

  4. Regional Lymph Node Uptake of [18F]Fluorodeoxyglucose After Definitive Chemoradiation Therapy Predicts Local-Regional Failure of Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Results of ACRIN 6668/RTOG 0235

    PubMed Central

    Markovina, Stephanie; Duan, Fenghai; Snyder, Bradley S.; Siegel, Barry A.; Machtay, Mitchell; Bradley, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Purpose/Objective(s) ACRIN 6668/RTOG 0235 demonstrated that standardized uptake value (SUV) on post-treatment [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) correlates with survival in locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This secondary analysis determines if SUV of regional lymph nodes (RLNs) on post-treatment FDG-PET correlates with patient outcomes. Methods and Materials Included for analysis were patients treated with concurrent chemoradiation therapy using radiation doses ≥60 Gy, with identifiable FDG-avid RLNs (distinct from primary tumor) on pre-treatment FDG-PET, and post-treatment FDG-PET data. ACRIN Core Laboratory SUV measurements were used. Event time was calculated from the date of post-treatment FDG-PET. Local-regional failure was defined as failure within the treated RT volume and reported by the treating institution. Statistical analyses included Wilcoxon signed-rank test, Kaplan-Meier curves (log rank test), and Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. Results Of 234 trial-eligible patients, 139 (59%) had uptake in both primary tumor and RLNs on pre-treatment FDG-PET, and had SUV data from post-treatment FDG-PET. Maximum SUV was greater for primary tumor than for RLNs before treatment (p<0.001), but not different post-treatment (p=0.320). Post-treatment SUV of RLNs was not associated with overall survival. However, elevated post-treatment SUV of RLNs, both the absolute value and the percent residual activity compared to the pre-treatment SUV, were associated with inferior local-regional control (p<0.001). Conclusions High residual metabolic activity in RLNs on post-treatment FDG-PET is associated with worse local-regional control. Based on these data, future trials evaluating a radiotherapy boost should consider inclusion of both primary tumor and FDG-avid RLNs in the boost volume to maximize local-regional control. PMID:26461002

  5. Model predictions and trend analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    Individual perturbations in atmospheric models are discussed. These are hypothetical perturbations determined by model computation in which it is assumed that one particular input or set of inputs to the model is changed while all others are held constant. The best estimates of past time dependent variations of globally averaged total ozone, and upper tropospheric and stratospheric ozone were determined along with geographical differences in the variations.

  6. The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, Peter; Thorpe, Alan; Brunet, Gilbert

    2015-09-01

    Advances in numerical weather prediction represent a quiet revolution because they have resulted from a steady accumulation of scientific knowledge and technological advances over many years that, with only a few exceptions, have not been associated with the aura of fundamental physics breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the impact of numerical weather prediction is among the greatest of any area of physical science. As a computational problem, global weather prediction is comparable to the simulation of the human brain and of the evolution of the early Universe, and it is performed every day at major operational centres across the world.

  7. Windshear Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    Windshear microbursts and extreme air turbulence caused by sudden intense changes in wind direction or speed are difficult to detect and thus dangerous to air traffic. They have been positively identified as the cause of 28 aviation accidents that claimed 491 lives. Many groups are investigating ways to detect and predict windshear. The Federal Aviation Consulting Services, Ltd. (FACS) is applying artificial intelligence to windshear prediction. FACS' artificial intelligence based airline dispatcher program is intended as a backup not a replacement for human dispatcher. It would incorporate the same data that a human would request to make a decision and then draw a conclusion using the same rules of logic as the human expert.

  8. Challenges of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Colagrande, Stefano; Inghilesi, Andrea L; Aburas, Sami; Taliani, Gian G; Nardi, Cosimo; Marra, Fabio

    2016-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an aggressive malignancy, resulting as the third cause of death by cancer each year. The management of patients with HCC is complex, as both the tumour stage and any underlying liver disease must be considered conjointly. Although surveillance by imaging, clinical and biochemical parameters is routinely performed, a lot of patients suffering from cirrhosis have an advanced stage HCC at the first diagnosis. Advanced stage HCC includes heterogeneous groups of patients with different clinical condition and radiological features and sorafenib is the only approved treatment according to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer. Since the introduction of sorafenib in clinical practice, several phase III clinical trials have failed to demonstrate any superiority over sorafenib in the frontline setting. Loco-regional therapies have also been tested as first line treatment, but their role in advanced HCC is still matter of debate. No single agent or combination therapies have been shown to impact outcomes after sorafenib failure. Therefore this review will focus on the range of experimental therapeutics for patients with advanced HCC and highlights the successes and failures of these treatments as well as areas for future development. Specifics such as dose limiting toxicity and safety profile in patients with liver dysfunction related to the underlying chronic liver disease should be considered when developing therapies in HCC. Finally, robust validated and reproducible surrogate end-points as well as predictive biomarkers should be defined in future randomized trials. PMID:27678348

  9. Eclipse prediction in Mesopotamia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steele, J. M.

    2000-02-01

    Among the many celestial phenomena observed in ancient Mesopotamia, eclipses, particularly eclipses of the Moon, were considered to be among the astrologically most significant events. In Babylon, by at least the middle of the seventh century BC, and probably as early as the middle of the eighth century BC, astronomical observations were being systematically conducted and recorded in a group of texts which we have come to call Astronomical Diaries. These Diaries contain many observations and predictions of eclipses. The predictions generally include the expected time of the eclipse, apparently calculated quite precisely. By the last three centuries BC, the Babylonian astronomers had developed highly advanced mathematical theories of the Moon and planets. This paper outlines the various methods which appear to have been formulated by the Mesopotamian astronomers to predict eclipses of the Sun and the Moon. It also considers the question of which of these methods were actually used in compiling the Astronomical Diaries, and speculates why these particular methods were used.

  10. Decadal predictability without ocean dynamics.

    PubMed

    Srivastava, Abhishekh; DelSole, Timothy

    2017-02-28

    This paper shows that the most predictable components of internal variability in coupled atmosphere-ocean models are remarkably similar to the most predictable components of climate models without interactive ocean dynamics (i.e., models whose ocean is represented by a 50-m-deep slab ocean mixed layer with no interactive currents). Furthermore, a linear regression model derived solely from dynamical model output can skillfully predict observed anomalies in these components at least a year or two in advance, indicating that these model-derived components and associated linear dynamics are realistic. These results suggest that interactive ocean circulation is not essential for the existence of multiyear predictability previously identified in coupled models and observations.

  11. Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Jackson, D D

    1996-04-30

    Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions.

  12. Predictive models of forest dynamics.

    PubMed

    Purves, Drew; Pacala, Stephen

    2008-06-13

    Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have shown that forest dynamics could dramatically alter the response of the global climate system to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next century. But there is little agreement between different DGVMs, making forest dynamics one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate. DGVM predictions could be strengthened by integrating the ecological realities of biodiversity and height-structured competition for light, facilitated by recent advances in the mathematics of forest modeling, ecological understanding of diverse forest communities, and the availability of forest inventory data.

  13. Structural tailoring of advanced turboprops

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, K. W.; Hopkins, Dale A.

    1988-01-01

    The Structural Tailoring of Advanced Turboprops (STAT) computer program was developed to perform numerical optimization on highly swept propfan blades. The optimization procedure seeks to minimize an objective function defined as either: (1) direct operating cost of full scale blade or, (2) aeroelastic differences between a blade and its scaled model, by tuning internal and external geometry variables that must satisfy realistic blade design constraints. The STAT analysis system includes an aerodynamic efficiency evaluation, a finite element stress and vibration analysis, an acoustic analysis, a flutter analysis, and a once-per-revolution forced response life prediction capability. STAT includes all relevant propfan design constraints.

  14. Advances in traction drive technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loewenthal, S. H.; Anderson, N. E.; Rohn, D. A.

    1983-01-01

    Traction drives are traced from early uses as main transmissions in automobiles at the turn of the century to modern, high-powered traction drives capable of transmitting hundreds of horsepower. Recent advances in technology are described which enable today's traction drive to be a serious candidate for off-highway vehicles and helicopter applications. Improvements in materials, traction fluids, design techniques, power loss and life prediction methods will be highlighted. Performance characteristics of the Nasvytis fixed-ratio drive are given. Promising future drive applications, such as helicopter main transmissions and servo-control positioning mechanisms are also addressed.

  15. Advanced flight control system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hartmann, G. L.; Wall, J. E., Jr.; Rang, E. R.; Lee, H. P.; Schulte, R. W.; Ng, W. K.

    1982-01-01

    A fly by wire flight control system architecture designed for high reliability includes spare sensor and computer elements to permit safe dispatch with failed elements, thereby reducing unscheduled maintenance. A methodology capable of demonstrating that the architecture does achieve the predicted performance characteristics consists of a hierarchy of activities ranging from analytical calculations of system reliability and formal methods of software verification to iron bird testing followed by flight evaluation. Interfacing this architecture to the Lockheed S-3A aircraft for flight test is discussed. This testbed vehicle can be expanded to support flight experiments in advanced aerodynamics, electromechanical actuators, secondary power systems, flight management, new displays, and air traffic control concepts.

  16. Theoretical predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brasseur, G.; Boville, B. A.; Bruhl, C.; Caldwell, M.; Connell, Peter S.; Derudder, A.; Douglas, A.; Dyominov, I.; Fisher, D.; Frederick, J. F.

    1990-01-01

    In order to understand the impact of man made chemicals on the atmospheric ozone layer, it is essential to develop models that can perform long term predictions of future ozone changes. An advantage of using two dimensional models is that they can be used to predict latitudinal and seasonal changes in ozone. The formulation and recent improvements are described in 2-D models, which are used herein, along with the three dimensional models that are currently being developed to better simulate transport of chemically active trace gases, especially in polar regions. The range in 2-D model calculations is described. Selected fields calculated by these models are compared with observations. A number of scenarios have been defined, which encompass possible emission rates of different halocarbons. Because of the large uncertainties in the rates for heterogeneous processes, the calculated responses of the models include only the effects of homogeneous chemistry. One important distinction among the models is their ability to account for temperature feedbacks on the calculated ozone changes.

  17. Advanced planetary studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Results of planetary advanced studies and planning support are summarized. The scope of analyses includes cost estimation research, planetary mission performance, penetrator advanced studies, Mercury mission transport requirements, definition of super solar electric propulsion/solar sail mission discriminators, and advanced planning activities.

  18. Advances in forefoot trauma.

    PubMed

    Clements, J Randolph; Schopf, Robert

    2013-07-01

    Forefoot traumas, particularly involving the metatarsals, are commonly occurring injuries. There have been several advances in management of these injuries. These advances include updates in operative technique, internal fixation options, plating constructs, and external fixation. In addition, the advances of soft tissue management have improved outcomes. This article outlines these injuries and provides an update on techniques, principles, and understanding of managing forefoot trauma.

  19. Session: CSP Advanced Systems -- Advanced Overview (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Mehos, M.

    2008-04-01

    The project description is: (1) it supports crosscutting activities, e.g. advanced optical materials, that aren't tied to a single CSP technology and (2) it supports the 'incubation' of new concepts in preliminary stages of investigation.

  20. ECLSS predictive monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.; Chien, Steve A.

    1991-01-01

    On Space Station Freedom (SSF), design iterations have made clear the need to keep the sensor complement small. Along with the unprecendented duration of the mission, it is imperative that decisions regarding placement of sensors be carefully examined and justified during the design phase. In the ECLSS Predictive Monitoring task, we are developing AI-based software to enable design engineers to evaluate alternate sensor configurations. Based on techniques from model-based reasoning and information theory, the software tool makes explicit the quantitative tradeoffs among competing sensor placements, and helps designers explore and justify placement decisions. This work is being applied to the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) testbed at MSFC to assist design personnel in placing sensors for test purposes to evaluate baseline configurations and ultimately to select advanced life support system technologies for evolutionary SSF.

  1. Predicting fertility.

    PubMed

    Maheshwari, Abha; Bhattacharya, Siladitya; Johnson, Neil P

    2008-06-01

    Various predictors of fertility have been described, suggesting that none are ideal. The literature on tests of ovarian reserve is largely limited to women undergoing in vitro fertilization, and is reliant on the use of surrogate markers, such as cycle cancellation and number of oocytes retrieved, as reference standards. Currently available prediction models are far from ideal; most are applicable only to subfertile women seeking assisted reproduction, and lack external validation. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of predictors of fertility are limited by their heterogeneity in terms of the population sampled, predictors tested and reference standards used. There is an urgent need for consensus in the design of these studies, definition of abnormal tests, and, above all, a need to use robust outcomes such as live birth as the reference standard. There are no reliable predictors of fertility that can guide women as to how long childbearing can be deferred.

  2. CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Advanced Analyses - Controlling for Natural Variability

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Methods for controlling natural variability, predicting environmental conditions from biological observations method, biological trait data, species sensitivity distributions, propensity scores, Advanced Analyses of Data Analysis references.

  3. CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Advanced Analyses - Controlling for Natural Variability: SSD Plot Diagrams

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Methods for controlling natural variability, predicting environmental conditions from biological observations method, biological trait data, species sensitivity distributions, propensity scores, Advanced Analyses of Data Analysis references.

  4. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  5. [Latest advances in chronic pancreatitis].

    PubMed

    Domínguez-Muñoz, J Enrique

    2014-09-01

    This article summarizes some of the recent and clinically relevant advances in chronic pancreatitis. These advances mainly concern the early diagnosis of the disease, the prediction of the fibrosis degree of the gland, the evaluation of patients with asymptomatic hyperenzimemia, the medical and surgical treatment of abdominal pain and the knowledge of the natural history of the autoimmune pancreatitis. In patients with indetermined EUS findings of chronic pancreatitis, a new endoscopic ultrasound examination in the follow-up is of help to confirm or to exclude the disease. Smoking, number of relapses, results of pancreatic function tests and EUS findings allow predicting the degree of pancreatic fibrosis in patients with chronic pancreatitis. Antioxidant therapy has shown to be effective in reducing pain secondary to chronic pancreatitis, although the type and optimal dose of antioxidants remains to be elucidated. Development of intestinal bacterial overgrowth is frequent in patients with chronic pancreatitis, but its impact on symptoms is unknown and deserves further investigations. Finally, autoimmune pancreatitis relapses in about half of the patients with either type 1 or type 2 disease; relapses frequently occur within the first two years of follow-up.

  6. Practical lessons from protein structure prediction

    PubMed Central

    Ginalski, Krzysztof; Grishin, Nick V.; Godzik, Adam; Rychlewski, Leszek

    2005-01-01

    Despite recent efforts to develop automated protein structure determination protocols, structural genomics projects are slow in generating fold assignments for complete proteomes, and spatial structures remain unknown for many protein families. Alternative cheap and fast methods to assign folds using prediction algorithms continue to provide valuable structural information for many proteins. The development of high-quality prediction methods has been boosted in the last years by objective community-wide assessment experiments. This paper gives an overview of the currently available practical approaches to protein structure prediction capable of generating accurate fold assignment. Recent advances in assessment of the prediction quality are also discussed. PMID:15805122

  7. ADVANCED TURBINE SYSTEMS PROGRAM

    SciTech Connect

    Sy Ali

    2002-03-01

    The market for power generation equipment is undergoing a tremendous transformation. The traditional electric utility industry is restructuring, promising new opportunities and challenges for all facilities to meet their demands for electric and thermal energy. Now more than ever, facilities have a host of options to choose from, including new distributed generation (DG) technologies that are entering the market as well as existing DG options that are improving in cost and performance. The market is beginning to recognize that some of these users have needs beyond traditional grid-based power. Together, these changes are motivating commercial and industrial facilities to re-evaluate their current mix of energy services. One of the emerging generating options is a new breed of advanced fuel cells. While there are a variety of fuel cell technologies being developed, the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) and molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFC) are especially promising, with their electric efficiency expected around 50-60 percent and their ability to generate either hot water or high quality steam. In addition, they both have the attractive characteristics of all fuel cells--relatively small siting footprint, rapid response to changing loads, very low emissions, quiet operation, and an inherently modular design lending itself to capacity expansion at predictable unit cost with reasonably short lead times. The objectives of this project are to:(1) Estimate the market potential for high efficiency fuel cell hybrids in the U.S.;(2) Segment market size by commercial, industrial, and other key markets;(3) Identify and evaluate potential early adopters; and(4) Develop results that will help prioritize and target future R&D investments. The study focuses on high efficiency MCFC- and SOFC-based hybrids and competing systems such as gas turbines, reciprocating engines, fuel cells and traditional grid service. Specific regions in the country have been identified where these

  8. Prior Knowledge or Advance Organizers as Effective Variables in Chemical Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fensham, P. J.; West, L. H. T.

    1976-01-01

    This report describes an attempt to apply a critical empirical test to some predictions from Ausubel's theory concerning the subsuming role of advance organizers. Alternative explanations are proposed and subsequent predictions tested. (BT)

  9. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  10. Advance Care Planning.

    PubMed

    Stallworthy, Elizabeth J

    2013-04-16

    Advance care planning should be available to all patients with chronic kidney disease, including end-stage kidney disease on renal replacement therapy. Advance care planning is a process of patient-centred discussion, ideally involving family/significant others, to assist the patient to understand how their illness might affect them, identify their goals and establish how medical treatment might help them to achieve these. An Advance Care Plan is only one useful outcome from the Advance Care Planning process, the education of patient and family around prognosis and treatment options is likely to be beneficial whether or not a plan is written or the individual loses decision making capacity at the end of life. Facilitating Advance Care Planning discussions requires an understanding of their purpose and communication skills which need to be taught. Advance Care Planning needs to be supported by effective systems to enable the discussions and any resulting Plans to be used to aid subsequent decision making.

  11. Aeroacoustic Prediction Codes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gliebe, P; Mani, R.; Shin, H.; Mitchell, B.; Ashford, G.; Salamah, S.; Connell, S.; Huff, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    This report describes work performed on Contract NAS3-27720AoI 13 as part of the NASA Advanced Subsonic Transport (AST) Noise Reduction Technology effort. Computer codes were developed to provide quantitative prediction, design, and analysis capability for several aircraft engine noise sources. The objective was to provide improved, physics-based tools for exploration of noise-reduction concepts and understanding of experimental results. Methods and codes focused on fan broadband and 'buzz saw' noise and on low-emissions combustor noise and compliment work done by other contractors under the NASA AST program to develop methods and codes for fan harmonic tone noise and jet noise. The methods and codes developed and reported herein employ a wide range of approaches, from the strictly empirical to the completely computational, with some being semiempirical analytical, and/or analytical/computational. Emphasis was on capturing the essential physics while still considering method or code utility as a practical design and analysis tool for everyday engineering use. Codes and prediction models were developed for: (1) an improved empirical correlation model for fan rotor exit flow mean and turbulence properties, for use in predicting broadband noise generated by rotor exit flow turbulence interaction with downstream stator vanes: (2) fan broadband noise models for rotor and stator/turbulence interaction sources including 3D effects, noncompact-source effects. directivity modeling, and extensions to the rotor supersonic tip-speed regime; (3) fan multiple-pure-tone in-duct sound pressure prediction methodology based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis; and (4) low-emissions combustor prediction methodology and computer code based on CFD and actuator disk theory. In addition. the relative importance of dipole and quadrupole source mechanisms was studied using direct CFD source computation for a simple cascadeigust interaction problem, and an empirical combustor

  12. Advances in Dynamical Predictions and Modelling of Tropical Cyclone Motion

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-03-01

    improvement at early times is reasonable as the data assimilation procedure is blending previous storm positions into the model initial conditions at t = 0...operational barotropic model that has no assimilation procedure and with a simple nudging assimilation approach over the prior 24 h. The Bennett et aL...Notice that the synthetic observations become part of the data set provided to the four-dimensional assimilation procedure . Although they are blended with

  13. Advances in the analysis and prediction of turbulent viscoelastic flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gatski, T. B.; Thais, L.; Mompean, G.

    2014-08-01

    It has been well-known for over six decades that the addition of minute amounts of long polymer chains to organic solvents, or water, can lead to significant turbulent drag reduction. This discovery has had many practical applications such as in pipeline fluid transport, oil well operations, vehicle design and submersible vehicle projectiles, and more recently arteriosclerosis treatment. However, it has only been the last twenty-five years that the full utilization of direct numerical simulation of such turbulent viscoelastic flows has been achieved. The unique characteristics of viscoelastic fluid flow are dictated by the nonlinear differential relationship between the flow strain rate field and the extra-stress induced by the additive polymer. A primary motivation for the analysis of these turbulent fluid flows is the understanding of the effect on the dynamic transfer of energy in the turbulent flow due to the presence of the extra-stress field induced by the presence of the viscoelastic polymer chain. Such analyses now utilize direct numerical simulation data of fully developed channel flow for the FENE-P (Finite Extendable Nonlinear Elastic - Peterlin) fluid model. Such multi-scale dynamics suggests an analysis of the transfer of energy between the various component motions that include the turbulent kinetic energy, and the mean polymeric and elastic potential energies. It is shown that the primary effect of the interaction between the turbulent and polymeric fields is to transfer energy from the turbulence to the polymer.

  14. Damage Prediction Models for Advanced Materials and Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xie, Ming; Ahmad, Jalees; Grady, Joseph E. (Technical Monitor)

    2005-01-01

    In the present study, the assessment and evaluation of various acoustic tile designs were conducted using three-dimensional finite element analysis, which included static analysis, thermal analysis and modal analysis of integral and non-integral tile design options. Various benchmark specimens for acoustic tile designs, including CMC integral T-joint and notched CMC plate, were tested in both room and elevated temperature environment. Various candidate ceramic matrix composite materials were used in the numerical modeling and experimental study. The research effort in this program evolved from numerical modeling and concept design to a combined numerical analysis and experimental study. Many subjects associated with the design and performance of the acoustic tile in jet engine exhaust nozzle have been investigated.

  15. Early Prediction of Lupus Nephritis Using Advanced Proteomics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    class V lupus nephritis, including - 1-B glycoprotein by 2D gel electrophoresis, -1-antitrypsin by SELDI-TOF-MS, citrate and taurine by NMR...nephritis, including -1-B glycoprotein by 2D gel electrophoresis, -1-antitrypsin by SELDI-TOF-MS, citrate, taurine and hippurate by NMR spectroscopy...metabolite taurine were significantly elevated (p < 0.01) in membranous LN as compared to proliferative LN patients. There was also a trend towards

  16. Advances and Challenges in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Tsann-Wang

    2010-10-01

    In this review article, the dispersive nature of various waves that exist in the atmosphere is first reviewed. These waves include Rossby waves, Kelvin wave, acoustic wave, internal and external gravity waves and many others, whose intrinsic nature and great relevancy to weather and climate forecasts are described. This paper then describes the latest development in global observations and data analysis and assimilation methodologies. These include three-dimensional and four dimensional variational data assimilation systems that are being used in the world's major operational weather and climate forecasting centers. Some of the recent results in using novel atmospheric satellite and chemical observation data applied to these data assimilation systems and those from the latest development in high resolution modeling and the ensemble forecasting approach in the operational numerical weather forecasting centers are also presented. Finally, problems of inherent errors associated with initial conditions, and those associated with the coupling of dynamics and physics and their related numerical issues in variational data assimilation systems are discussed.

  17. Prediction of Dynamic Stall Characteristics Using Advanced Nonlinear Panel Methods,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    This paper presents preliminary results of work in which a surface singularity panel method is being extended for modelling the dynamic interaction...between a separated wake and a surface undergoing an unsteady motion. The method combines the capabilities of an unsteady time-stepping code and a... technique for modelling extensive separation using free vortex sheets. Routines are developed for treating the dynamic interaction between the separated

  18. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    SciTech Connect

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A.

    1995-12-31

    Emphasis is placed on life characterization based on low cycle fatigue under isothermal conditions and thermomechanical fatigue. Microstructure of failed coated and uncoated specimens is being analyzed. IN 738 LC is the material; the coating is either overlay (NiCoCrAly) or NiAl-based aluminide.

  19. Predicting Performance in an Advanced Undergraduate Geological Field Camp Experience

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dykas, Matthew J.; Valentino, David W.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the factors that contribute to students' success in conducting geological field work. Undergraduate students (n = 49; 51% female; mean age = 22 y) who were enrolled in the 5-wk State University of New York at Oswego (SUNY Oswego) geology field program volunteered to participate in this study. At the beginning of the field…

  20. Advanced Computational Aeroacoustics Methods for Fan Noise Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Envia, Edmane (Technical Monitor); Tam, Christopher

    2003-01-01

    Direct computation of fan noise is presently not possible. One of the major difficulties is the geometrical complexity of the problem. In the case of fan noise, the blade geometry is critical to the loading on the blade and hence the intensity of the radiated noise. The precise geometry must be incorporated into the computation. In computational fluid dynamics (CFD), there are two general ways to handle problems with complex geometry. One way is to use unstructured grids. The other is to use body fitted overset grids. In the overset grid method, accurate data transfer is of utmost importance. For acoustic computation, it is not clear that the currently used data transfer methods are sufficiently accurate as not to contaminate the very small amplitude acoustic disturbances. In CFD, low order schemes are, invariably, used in conjunction with unstructured grids. However, low order schemes are known to be numerically dispersive and dissipative. dissipative errors are extremely undesirable for acoustic wave problems. The objective of this project is to develop a high order unstructured grid Dispersion-Relation-Preserving (DRP) scheme. would minimize numerical dispersion and dissipation errors. contains the results of the funded portion of the project. scheme on an unstructured grid has been developed. constructed in the wave number space. The characteristics of the scheme can be improved by the inclusion of additional constraints. Stability of the scheme has been investigated. Stability can be improved by adopting the upwinding strategy.

  1. Advanced Weapon System (AWS) Sensor Prediction Techniques Study. Volume I

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-09-01

    of the study. The material that was researched generally fell within the following topics or categories: 0 Perceptual psychology in visual training...the first stage of the process. Bp appears to offer a reasonable summary of the statistics of the second stage. S3. 1. 2.2.4 Bombing Mod’als lRandom...INTRODUCTION The principal object of this research was to study effiLient methods of representation. storage, and display of sensor scene simulation

  2. Early Prediction of Lupus Nephritis Using Advanced Proteomics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    mechanisms of inflammatory lupus nephritis from non inflammatory nephropathies with similar urinary findings. 1.2: Validation of NGAL as a biomarker...Membranous Class V lesions. Kidney biopsies are the choice for diagnosis of LN, but are impractical to accurately assess the course of LN in clinical

  3. Early Prediction of Lupus Nephritis Using Advanced Proteomics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-06-01

    nephropathies with similar urinary findings. The respective amendment has been submitted to the CCHMC IRB and the ORP will be notified once approval at...and 133 kDa. These biomarkers were strongly correlated with renal disease activity and with renal damage. For the diagnosis of active nephritis...noninvasive technique for exploring pathological metabolic and toxicological processes in humans42-44 and is being developed as a tool for diagnosis of

  4. Advanced Methods for Ship Motion and Wave Load Prediction

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-01-01

    S.0. Skjordal [20], and Troesch [21]. Research in the area of incompressible viscous flow has yielded several interesting techniques. Bourianoff and...equation was initially chosen based on the reported successes of Bourianoff and Penumalli [22]. The technique developed to apply this finite difference...Report No. 17, 1976. 22. Bourianoff , G.I. and Penumalli, B.R., "Final Report on Computational Pre- diction of Ship Miotion in Confined Waters Using

  5. Advanced Weapon System (AWS) Sensor Prediction Techniques Study. Volume II

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-09-01

    e solution of dara base storage and processing problems characteristIc of low altitude flight sensor Image simulation. The tasks carried out to...UNCLASSIFIED SECuRI’V CLASSIIPICATI’IN OF TNI AEe~* aA I UNCLSSIFIED_ raphics and image processing technology, and evaluation of experimental image... processing and pattern reeognition, and discusses geometric concepts related to projection. New approaches based on projective geometry and neurophysical

  6. Advancing Ethical Neuroscience Research.

    PubMed

    Borah, B Rashmi; Strand, Nicolle K; Chillag, Kata L

    2016-12-01

    As neuroscience research advances, researchers, clinicians, and other stakeholders will face a host of ethical challenges. The Presidential Commission for the Study of Bioethical Issues (Bioethics Commission) has published two reports that provide recommendations on how to advance research endeavors ethically. The commission addressed, among other issues, how to prioritize different types of neuroscience research and how to include research participants who have impaired consent capacity. The Bioethics Commission's recommendations provide a foundation for ethical guidelines as neuroscience research advances and progresses.

  7. Hydromechanical Advanced Coal Excavator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estus, Jay M.; Summers, David

    1990-01-01

    Water-jet cutting reduces coal dust and its hazards. Advanced mining system utilizes full-face, hydromechanical, continuous miner. Coal excavator uses high-pressure water-jet lances, one in each of cutting heads and one in movable lance, to make cuts across top, bottom and middle height, respectively, of coal face. Wedge-shaped cutting heads advance into lower and upper cuts in turn, thereby breaking coal toward middle cut. Thrust cylinders and walking pads advance excavator toward coal face.

  8. Advanced echocardiographic techniques

    PubMed Central

    Perry, Rebecca

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Echocardiography has advanced significantly since its first clinical use. The move towards more accurate imaging and quantification has driven this advancement. In this review, we will briefly focus on three distinct but important recent advances, three‐dimensional (3D) echocardiography, contrast echocardiography and myocardial tissue imaging. The basic principles of these techniques will be discussed as well as current and future clinical applications. PMID:28191159

  9. Advanced Turbofan Duct Liner Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bielak, Gerald W.; Premo, John W.; Hersh, Alan S.

    1999-01-01

    The Advanced Subsonic Technology Noise Reduction Program goal is to reduce aircraft noise by 10 EPNdB by the year 2000 relative, to 1992 technology. The improvement goal for nacelle attenuation is 25% relative to 1992 technology by 1997 and 50% by 2000. The Advanced Turbofan Duct Liner Concepts Task work by Boeing presented in this document was in support of these goals. The basis for the technical approach was a Boeing study conducted in 1993-94 under NASA/FAA contract NAS1-19349, Task 6, investigating broadband acoustic liner concepts. As a result of this work, it was recommended that linear double layer, linear and perforate triple layer, parallel element, and bulk absorber liners be further investigated to improve nacelle attenuations. NASA LaRC also suggested that "adaptive" liner concepts that would allow "in-situ" acoustic impedance control also be considered. As a result, bias flow and high-temperature liner concepts were also added to the investigation. The major conclusion from the above studies is that improvements in nacelle liner average acoustic impedance characteristics alone will not result in 25% increased nacelle noise reduction relative to 1992 technology. Nacelle design advancements currently being developed by Boeing are expected to add 20-40% more acoustic lining to hardwall regions in current inlets, which is predicted to result in and additional 40-80% attenuation improvement. Similar advancements are expected to allow 10-30% more acoustic lining in current fan ducts with 10-30% more attenuation expected. In addition, Boeing is currently developing a scarf inlet concept which is expected to give an additional 40-80% attenuation improvement for equivalent lining areas.

  10. Striatal prediction error modulates cortical coupling.

    PubMed

    den Ouden, Hanneke E M; Daunizeau, Jean; Roiser, Jonathan; Friston, Karl J; Stephan, Klaas E

    2010-03-03

    Both perceptual inference and motor responses are shaped by learned probabilities. For example, stimulus-induced responses in sensory cortices and preparatory activity in premotor cortex reflect how (un)expected a stimulus is. This is in accordance with predictive coding accounts of brain function, which posit a fundamental role of prediction errors for learning and adaptive behavior. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging and recent advances in computational modeling to investigate how (failures of) learned predictions about visual stimuli influence subsequent motor responses. Healthy volunteers discriminated visual stimuli that were differentially predicted by auditory cues. Critically, the predictive strengths of cues varied over time, requiring subjects to continuously update estimates of stimulus probabilities. This online inference, modeled using a hierarchical Bayesian learner, was reflected behaviorally: speed and accuracy of motor responses increased significantly with predictability of the stimuli. We used nonlinear dynamic causal modeling to demonstrate that striatal prediction errors are used to tune functional coupling in cortical networks during learning. Specifically, the degree of striatal trial-by-trial prediction error activity controls the efficacy of visuomotor connections and thus the influence of surprising stimuli on premotor activity. This finding substantially advances our understanding of striatal function and provides direct empirical evidence for formal learning theories that posit a central role for prediction error-dependent plasticity.

  11. Advancing the educational agenda.

    PubMed

    Baker, Cynthia

    2010-12-01

    This timely paper provides a thought-provoking analysis of current advanced practice nursing education in Canada. It comes at a critical juncture in the evolution of Canadian healthcare services and the redefinition of nursing roles. Increasingly, multiple sectors of society are calling for more nurses with advanced practice preparation and for a wider range of advanced practice nursing specialties. Advanced practice nurses (APNs) are being proposed as a solution to a financially overburdened national healthcare system, the increasing complexity of healthcare services, and a crisis in access to primary healthcare. Thus, governments seeking greater fiscal efficiency, medical specialists needing sophisticated collaborative support, and healthcare consumers see APNs as the way forward.

  12. ADVANCED CUTTINGS TRANSPORT STUDY

    SciTech Connect

    Stefan Miska; Troy Reed; Ergun Kuru

    2004-09-30

    The Advanced Cuttings Transport Study (ACTS) was a 5-year JIP project undertaken at the University of Tulsa (TU). The project was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and JIP member companies. The objectives of the project were: (1) to develop and construct a new research facility that would allow three-phase (gas, liquid and cuttings) flow experiments under ambient and EPET (elevated pressure and temperature) conditions, and at different angle of inclinations and drill pipe rotation speeds; (2) to conduct experiments and develop a data base for the industry and academia; and (3) to develop mechanistic models for optimization of drilling hydraulics and cuttings transport. This project consisted of research studies, flow loop construction and instrumentation development. Following a one-year period for basic flow loop construction, a proposal was submitted by TU to the DOE for a five-year project that was organized in such a manner as to provide a logical progression of research experiments as well as additions to the basic flow loop. The flow loop additions and improvements included: (1) elevated temperature capability; (2) two-phase (gas and liquid, foam etc.) capability; (3) cuttings injection and removal system; (4) drill pipe rotation system; and (5) drilling section elevation system. In parallel with the flow loop construction, hydraulics and cuttings transport studies were preformed using drilling foams and aerated muds. In addition, hydraulics and rheology of synthetic drilling fluids were investigated. The studies were performed under ambient and EPET conditions. The effects of temperature and pressure on the hydraulics and cuttings transport were investigated. Mechanistic models were developed to predict frictional pressure loss and cuttings transport in horizontal and near-horizontal configurations. Model predictions were compared with the measured data. Predominantly, model predictions show satisfactory agreements with the measured data. As a

  13. A correlational approach to predicting operator status

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shingledecker, Clark A.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses a research approach for identifying and validating candidate physiological and behavioral parameters which can be used to predict the performance capabilities of aircrew and other system operators. In this methodology, concurrent and advance correlations are computed between predictor values and criterion performance measures. Continuous performance and sleep loss are used as stressors to promote performance variation. Preliminary data are presented which suggest dependence of prediction capability on the resource allocation policy of the operator.

  14. ADVANCED SEISMIC BASE ISOLATION METHODS FOR MODULAR REACTORS

    SciTech Connect

    E. Blanford; E. Keldrauk; M. Laufer; M. Mieler; J. Wei; B. Stojadinovic; P.F. Peterson

    2010-09-20

    Advanced technologies for structural design and construction have the potential for major impact not only on nuclear power plant construction time and cost, but also on the design process and on the safety, security and reliability of next generation of nuclear power plants. In future Generation IV (Gen IV) reactors, structural and seismic design should be much more closely integrated with the design of nuclear and industrial safety systems, physical security systems, and international safeguards systems. Overall reliability will be increased, through the use of replaceable and modular equipment, and through design to facilitate on-line monitoring, in-service inspection, maintenance, replacement, and decommissioning. Economics will also receive high design priority, through integrated engineering efforts to optimize building arrangements to minimize building heights and footprints. Finally, the licensing approach will be transformed by becoming increasingly performance based and technology neutral, using best-estimate simulation methods with uncertainty and margin quantification. In this context, two structural engineering technologies, seismic base isolation and modular steel-plate/concrete composite structural walls, are investigated. These technologies have major potential to (1) enable standardized reactor designs to be deployed across a wider range of sites, (2) reduce the impact of uncertainties related to site-specific seismic conditions, and (3) alleviate reactor equipment qualification requirements. For Gen IV reactors the potential for deliberate crashes of large aircraft must also be considered in design. This report concludes that base-isolated structures should be decoupled from the reactor external event exclusion system. As an example, a scoping analysis is performed for a rectangular, decoupled external event shell designed as a grillage. This report also reviews modular construction technology, particularly steel-plate/concrete construction using

  15. Kansas Advanced Semiconductor Project

    SciTech Connect

    Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Bolton, T.; Horton-Smith, G.; Maravin, Y.; Ratra, B.; Stanton, N.; von Toerne, E.; Wilson, G.

    2007-09-21

    KASP (Kansas Advanced Semiconductor Project) completed the new Layer 0 upgrade for D0, assumed key electronics projects for the US CMS project, finished important new physics measurements with the D0 experiment at Fermilab, made substantial contributions to detector studies for the proposed e+e- international linear collider (ILC), and advanced key initiatives in non-accelerator-based neutrino physics.

  16. Drilling at Advanced Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Case, Doug

    1977-01-01

    Instances where drilling is useful for advanced language are discussed. Several types of drills are recommended, with the philosophy that advanced level drills should have a lighter style and be regarded as a useful, occasional means of practicing individual new items. (CHK)

  17. Advanced Engineering Fibers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edie, Dan D.; Dunham, Michael G.

    1987-01-01

    Describes Clemson University's Advanced Engineered Fibers Laboratory, which was established to provide national leadership and expertise in developing the processing equipment and advance fibers necessary for the chemical, fiber, and textile industries to enter the composite materials market. Discusses some of the laboratory's activities in…

  18. Advanced Ceramic Armor Materials

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-05-11

    materials, toughened alumina, fiber -reinforced glass matrix composites, and multilayer-gradient materials for ballistic testing. Fabrication and...material systems: Multilayer advanced armor materials consisting of a hard ceramic faceplate bonded to a graphite fiber -reinforced glass matrix...toughened alumina, and fiber - applied studies of advanced reinforced ceramic matrix glass and glass -ceramic composites for ballistic testing. technologies

  19. Advances in Tissue Engineering

    PubMed Central

    Vacanti, Joseph

    2016-01-01

    Nearly 30 years ago, we reported on a concept now known as Tissue Engineering. Here, we report on some of the advances in this now thriving area of research. In particular, significant advances in tissue engineering of skin, liver, spinal cord, blood vessels, and other areas are discussed. PMID:26711689

  20. Advanced Manufacturing Technologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fikes, John

    2016-01-01

    Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMT) is developing and maturing innovative and advanced manufacturing technologies that will enable more capable and lower-cost spacecraft, launch vehicles and infrastructure to enable exploration missions. The technologies will utilize cutting edge materials and emerging capabilities including metallic processes, additive manufacturing, composites, and digital manufacturing. The AMT project supports the National Manufacturing Initiative involving collaboration with other government agencies.

  1. Advanced Network Security Project

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-12-01

    network. The network observed was the Abilene network of the University Consortium for Advanced Internet Development (UCAID), often known as “ Internet2 ...for Advanced Internet Development (UCAID), often known as “ Internet2 .” This contract was heavily operational in nature, as opposed to a contract

  2. Advances in dental materials.

    PubMed

    Fleming, Garry J P

    2014-05-01

    The dental market is replete with new resorative materials marketed on the basis of novel technological advances in materials chemistry, bonding capability or reduced operator time and/or technique sensitivity. This paper aims to consider advances in current materials, with an emphasis on their role in supporting contemporary clinical practice.

  3. Advanced Life Support

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chambliss, Joe

    2004-01-01

    Viewgraphs on Advanced Life Support (ALS) Systems are presented. The topics include: 1) Fundamental Need for Advanced Life Support; 2) ALS organization; 3) Requirements and Rationale; 4) Past Integrated tests; 5) The need for improvements in life support systems; 6) ALS approach to meet exploration goals; 7) ALS Projects showing promise to meet exploration goals; and 9) GRC involvement in ALS.

  4. Advanced Chemical Propulsion Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woodcock, Gordon; Byers, Dave; Alexander, Leslie A.; Krebsbach, Al

    2004-01-01

    A study was performed of advanced chemical propulsion technology application to space science (Code S) missions. The purpose was to begin the process of selecting chemical propulsion technology advancement activities that would provide greatest benefits to Code S missions. Several missions were selected from Code S planning data, and a range of advanced chemical propulsion options was analyzed to assess capabilities and benefits re these missions. Selected beneficial applications were found for higher-performing bipropellants, gelled propellants, and cryogenic propellants. Technology advancement recommendations included cryocoolers and small turbopump engines for cryogenic propellants; space storable propellants such as LOX-hydrazine; and advanced monopropellants. It was noted that fluorine-bearing oxidizers offer performance gains over more benign oxidizers. Potential benefits were observed for gelled propellants that could be allowed to freeze, then thawed for use.

  5. Advanced Hydrogen Turbine Development

    SciTech Connect

    Joesph Fadok

    2008-01-01

    Siemens has developed a roadmap to achieve the DOE goals for efficiency, cost reduction, and emissions through innovative approaches and novel technologies which build upon worldwide IGCC operational experience, platform technology, and extensive experience in G-class operating conditions. In Phase 1, the technologies and concepts necessary to achieve the program goals were identified for the gas turbine components and supporting technology areas and testing plans were developed to mitigate identified risks. Multiple studies were conducted to evaluate the impact in plant performance of different gas turbine and plant technologies. 2015 gas turbine technologies showed a significant improvement in IGCC plant efficiency, however, a severe performance penalty was calculated for high carbon capture cases. Thermodynamic calculations showed that the DOE 2010 and 2015 efficiency targets can be met with a two step approach. A risk management process was instituted in Phase 1 to identify risk and develop mitigation plans. For the risks identified, testing and development programs are in place and the risks will be revisited periodically to determine if changes to the plan are necessary. A compressor performance prediction has shown that the design of the compressor for the engine can be achieved with additional stages added to the rear of the compressor. Tip clearance effects were studied as well as a range of flow and pressure ratios to evaluate the impacts to both performance and stability. Considerable data was obtained on the four candidate combustion systems: diffusion, catalytic, premix, and distributed combustion. Based on the results of Phase 1, the premixed combustion system and the distributed combustion system were chosen as having the most potential and will be the focus of Phase 2 of the program. Significant progress was also made in obtaining combustion kinetics data for high hydrogen fuels. The Phase 1 turbine studies indicate initial feasibility of the

  6. Is there a single best estimator? selection of home range estimators using area- under- the-curve

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walter, William D.; Onorato, Dave P.; Fischer, Justin W.

    2015-01-01

    Comparisons of fit of home range contours with locations collected would suggest that use of VHF technology is not as accurate as GPS technology to estimate size of home range for large mammals. Estimators of home range collected with GPS technology performed better than those estimated with VHF technology regardless of estimator used. Furthermore, estimators that incorporate a temporal component (third-generation estimators) appeared to be the most reliable regardless of whether kernel-based or Brownian bridge-based algorithms were used and in comparison to first- and second-generation estimators. We defined third-generation estimators of home range as any estimator that incorporates time, space, animal-specific parameters, and habitat. Such estimators would include movement-based kernel density, Brownian bridge movement models, and dynamic Brownian bridge movement models among others that have yet to be evaluated.

  7. How do we best estimate fluvial flood risk in urban environments? : The case of the city of Eilenburg, Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Longo, Elisa; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Mukolwe, Micah

    2015-04-01

    Flooding is one of the most impactful natural hazards. In particular, by looking at the data of damages from natural hazards in Europe collected in the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) one can see a significant increase over the past four decades of both frequency of floods and associated economic damages. Similarly, dramatic trends are also found by analyzing other types of flood losses, such as the number of people affected by floods, homeless, injured or killed. To deal with the aforementioned increase of flood risk, more and more efforts are being made to promote integrated flood risk management, for instance, at the end of 2007, the European Community (EC) issued the Flood Directive (F.D.) 2007/60/EC. One of the major innovations was that the F.D. 2007/60/C requires Member State to carry out risk maps and then take appropriate measures to reduce the evaluated risk. The main goal of this research was to estimate flood damaging using a computer code based on a recently developed method (KULTURisk, www.kulturisk.eu) and to compare the estimated damage with the observed one. The study area was the municipality of Eilenburg, which in 2002 was subjected to a destructive flood event. Were produced flood damage maps with new procedures (e.g. KULTURisk) and compared the estimates with observed data. This study showed the possibility to extend the lesson learned with the Eilenburg case study in other similar contexts. The outcomes of this test provided interesting insights about the flood risk mapping, which are expected to contribute to raise awareness to the flooding issues,to plan (structural and/or non-structural) measures of flood risk reduction and to support better land-use and urban planning.

  8. Assessment procedures for narcissistic personality disorder: a comparison of the personality diagnostic questionnaire-4 and best-estimate clinical judgments.

    PubMed

    Miller, Joshua D; Campbell, W Keith; Pilkonis, Paul A; Morse, Jennifer Q

    2008-12-01

    This study examined the degree of correspondence between two assessments for narcissistic personality disorder (NPD) in a mixed clinical and community sample--one using a self-report measure (Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire-4) and the other using clinical judgments derived from an assessment based on the longitudinal, expert, all data (LEAD) methodology. NPD scores demonstrated moderate convergence for the total scores but weak convergence for the individual criteria. The authors also examined the correlates created by each set of NPD scores using Cloninger's Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI). The NPD scores demonstrated areas of convergence (e.g., Cooperativeness, Self-directedness) and divergence (i.e., Harm Avoidance, Novelty Seeking) with these personality scores. These divergences may be due to the wording of certain items on the Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire-4 NPD scale, which may require rewriting if it is to provide an assessment that is more highly convergent with the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders NPD construct.

  9. Assessment Procedures for Narcissistic Personality Disorder: A Comparison of the Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire-4 and Best-Estimate Clinical Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Joshua D.; Campbell, W. Keith; Pilkonis, Paul A.; Morse, Jennifer Q.

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the degree of correspondence between two assessments for narcissistic personality disorder (NPD) in a mixed clinical and community sample--one using a self-report measure (Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire-4) and the other using clinical judgments derived from an assessment based on the longitudinal, expert, all data (LEAD)…

  10. FOREWORD: Focus on Advanced Ceramics Focus on Advanced Ceramics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohashi, Naoki

    2011-06-01

    Much research has been devoted recently to developing technologies for renewable energy and improving the efficiency of the processes and devices used in industry and everyday life. Efficient solutions have been found using novel materials such as platinum and palladium-based catalysts for car exhaust systems, samarium-cobalt and neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets for electrical motors, and so on. However, their realization has resulted in an increasing demand for rare elements and in their deficit, the development of new materials based on more abundant elements and new functionalities of traditional materials. Moreover, increasing environmental and health concerns demand substitution of toxic or hazardous substances with nature-friendly alternatives. In this context, this focus issue on advanced ceramics aims to review current trends in ceramics science and technology. It is related to the International Conference on Science and Technology of Advanced Ceramics (STAC) held annually to discuss the emerging issues in the field of ceramics. An important direction of ceramic science is the collaboration between experimental and theoretical sciences. Recent developments in density functional theory and computer technology have enabled the prediction of physical and chemical properties of ceramics, thereby assisting the design of new materials. Therefore, this focus issue includes articles devoted to theory and advanced characterization techniques. As mentioned above, the potential shortage of rare elements is becoming critical to the industry and has resulted in a Japanese government initiative called the 'Ubiquitous Element Strategy'. This focus issue also includes articles related to this strategy and to the associated topics of energy conversion, such as phosphors for high-efficiency lighting and photocatalysts for solar-energy harvesting. We hope that this focus issue will provide a timely overview of current trends and problems in ceramics science and

  11. Advanced electron microscopy for advanced materials.

    PubMed

    Van Tendeloo, Gustaaf; Bals, Sara; Van Aert, Sandra; Verbeeck, Jo; Van Dyck, Dirk

    2012-11-08

    The idea of this Review is to introduce newly developed possibilities of advanced electron microscopy to the materials science community. Over the last decade, electron microscopy has evolved into a full analytical tool, able to provide atomic scale information on the position, nature, and even the valency atoms. This information is classically obtained in two dimensions (2D), but can now also be obtained in 3D. We show examples of applications in the field of nanoparticles and interfaces.

  12. Advance Noise Control Fan II: Test Rig Fan Risk Management Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lucero, John

    2013-01-01

    Since 1995 the Advanced Noise Control Fan (ANCF) has significantly contributed to the advancement of the understanding of the physics of fan tonal noise generation. The 9'x15' WT has successfully tested multiple high speed fan designs over the last several decades. This advanced several tone noise reduction concepts to higher TRL and the validation of fan tone noise prediction codes.

  13. Predicting Mathematical Aptitude for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDonald, Betty

    2008-01-01

    This present study seeks to predict mathematical aptitude for higher education by examining the relationship between mathematics results from the Caribbean Examinations Council (CXC) general proficiency examination and the results from the General Certificate of Education (GCE) advanced level examination. This present study arose from a more…

  14. GAPIT: genome association and prediction integrated tool

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Advances in high throughput sequencing have improved the detection of genes underlying important traits as well as the prediction accuracy of disease risk and breeding value of crop or livestock. Software programs developed to perform statistical genetic analysis that support these activities should...

  15. Advances and trends in computational structural mechanics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K.; Atluri, Satya N.

    1987-01-01

    The development status and applicational range of techniques in computational structural mechanics (CSM) are evaluated with a view to advances in computational models for material behavior, discrete-element technology, quality assessment, the control of numerical simulations of structural response, hybrid analysis techniques, techniques for large-scale optimization, and the impact of new computing systems on CSM. Primary pacers of CSM development encompass prediction and analysis of novel materials for structural components, computational strategies for large-scale structural calculations, and the assessment of response prediction reliability together with its adaptive improvement.

  16. Recent Advances in Conformal Gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Brien, James; Chaykov, Spasen

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, significant advances have been made in alternative gravitational theories. Although MOND remains the leading candidate among the alternative models, Conformal Gravity has been studied by Mannheim and O'Brien to solve the rotation curve problem without the need for dark matter. Recently, Mannheim, O'Brien and Chaykov have begun solving other gravitational questions in Conformal Gravity. In this presentation, we highlight the new work of Conformal Gravity's application to random motions of clusters (the original Zwicky problem), gravitational bending of light, gravitational lensing and a very recent survey of dwarf galaxy rotation curves. We will show in each case that Conformal Gravity can provide an accurate explanation and prediction of the data without the need for dark matter. Coupled with the fact that Conformal Gravity is a fully re-normalizable metric theory of gravity, these results help to push Conformal Gravity onto a competitive stage against other alternative models.

  17. Advanced biostack experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buecker, H.

    1981-01-01

    The Advanced Biostack Experiment is described. The objectives are: (1) to confirm, complement, and enlarge the information obtained from the previous experiments by applying improved and advanced methods of localization and physical and biological evaluation, performing advanced experiments based on these data, and including additional biological specimens and additional radiation detectors; (2) to determine the biological importance of nuclear disintegration stars; (3) to determine the interference of HZE particle induced effects with those of other space flight factors (e.g., weightlessness); and (4) to determine the distribution of HZE particles and of disintegration stars at different locations inside the module and on the pallet.

  18. Advanced Computer Typography.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-12-01

    ADVANCED COMPUTER TYPOGRAPHY .(U) DEC 81 A V HERSHEY UNCLASSIFIED NPS012-81-005 M MEEEIEEEII IIUJIL15I.4 MICROCQP RE SO.JjI ON ft R NPS012-81-005...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL 0Monterey, California DTIC SELECTEWA APR 5 1982 B ADVANCED COMPUTER TYPOGRAPHY by A. V. HERSHEY December 1981 OApproved for...Subtitle) S. TYPE Or REPORT & PERIOD COVERED Final ADVANCED COMPUTER TYPOGRAPHY Dec 1979 - Dec 1981 S. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7. AUTHOR(s) S CONTRACT

  19. Advanced Electronic Technology.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1978-11-15

    It AD AObS 062 MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH LEXINGTON LINCOLN LAB F/S 9/S ADVANCED ELECTRONIC TECHNOLOGY .(U) NOV 78 A J MCLAUGHLIN. A L MCWHORTER...T I T U T E OF T E C H N O L O G Y L I N C O L N L A B O R A T O R Y ADVANCED ELECTRONIC TECHNOLOGY QUARTERLY TECKNICAL SUMMAR Y REPORT TO THE AIR...Division 8 (Solid State) on the Advanced Electronic Technology Program. Hi

  20. Advanced information society(7)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiba, Toshihiro

    Various threats are hiding in advanced informationalized society. As we see car accident problems in motorization society light aspects necessarily accompy shady ones. Under the changing circumstances of advanced informationalization added values of information has become much higher. It causes computer crime, hacker, computer virus to come to the surface. In addition it can be said that infringement of intellectual property and privacy are threats brought by advanced information. Against these threats legal, institutional and insurance measures have been progressed, and newly security industry has been established. However, they are not adequate individually or totally. The future vision should be clarified, and countermeasures according to the visions have to be considered.

  1. The ADvanced SEParation (ADSEP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    The ADvanced SEParation (ADSEP) commercial payload is making use of major advances in separation technology: The Phase Partitioning Experiment (PPE); the Micorencapsulation experiment; and the Hemoglobin Separation Experiment (HSE). Using ADSEP, commercial researchers will attempt to determine the partition coefficients for model particles in a two-phase system. With this information, researchers can develop a higher resolution, more effective cell isolation procedure that can be used for many different types of research and for improved health care. The advanced separation technology is already being made available for use in ground-based laboratories.

  2. Advanced Vadose Zone Simulations Using TOUGH

    SciTech Connect

    Finsterle, S.; Doughty, C.; Kowalsky, M.B.; Moridis, G.J.; Pan,L.; Xu, T.; Zhang, Y.; Pruess, K.

    2007-02-01

    The vadose zone can be characterized as a complex subsurfacesystem in which intricate physical and biogeochemical processes occur inresponse to a variety of natural forcings and human activities. Thismakes it difficult to describe, understand, and predict the behavior ofthis specific subsurface system. The TOUGH nonisothermal multiphase flowsimulators are well-suited to perform advanced vadose zone studies. Theconceptual models underlying the TOUGH simulators are capable ofrepresenting features specific to the vadose zone, and of addressing avariety of coupled phenomena. Moreover, the simulators are integratedinto software tools that enable advanced data analysis, optimization, andsystem-level modeling. We discuss fundamental and computationalchallenges in simulating vadose zone processes, review recent advances inmodeling such systems, and demonstrate some capabilities of the TOUGHsuite of codes using illustrative examples.

  3. Controlling air toxics through advanced coal preparation

    SciTech Connect

    Straszheim, W.E.; Buttermore, W.H.; Pollard, J.L.

    1995-11-01

    This project involves the assessment of advanced coal preparation methods for removing trace elements from coal to reduce the potential for air toxic emissions upon combustion. Scanning electron microscopy-based automated image analysis (SEM-AIA) and advanced washability analyses are being applied with state-of-the-art analytical procedures to predict the removal of elements of concern by advanced column flotation and to confirm the effectiveness of preparation on the quality of quantity of clean coal produced. Specific objectives are to maintain an acceptable recovery of combustible product, while improving the rejection of mineral-associated trace elements. Current work has focused on determining conditions for controlling column flotation system across its operating range and on selection and analysis of samples for determining trace element cleanability.

  4. Predicting recidivism in a communitarian society: China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jianhong

    2005-08-01

    Research on the prediction of recidivism has largely been an enterprise of Western criminology. Therefore, the identification and selection of predictors has tended to follow the individualistic traditions of the West. Important advances in models and methods have not been extended to non-Western societies such as China. This article explores the implications of communitarian features of Chinese urban communities for prediction of recidivism. The article applies the perspective of social capital to the specification of predictors. Available community social-capital measures are included in the prediction model to capture the effects of communitarian cultural features. The results indicate that social capital variables generally have significant effects.

  5. Delayed coker fractionator advanced control

    SciTech Connect

    Jaisinghani, R.; Minter, B. ); Tica, A.; Puglesi, A.; Ojeda, R. )

    1993-08-01

    In a delayed coking process, as coke drum switches are made, rapid changes occur in both the fractionator feed rate and composition. With conventional control, it is not unusual to see long transient behavior of large swings in both quality and flowrates of coker gas oils. This can extract a heavy economic toll, not only in coker operation, but in the operation of downstream units as the upset is propagated. An advanced process control application (APC) was recently implemented on the coker fractionator at the Yacimentos Petroliferos Fiscales (YPF), Lujan de Cuyo Refinery, in Mendoza, Argentina. This coker fractionator control design was unique as it handled two different operating objectives: control of product qualities via tower temperature profile during normal operation and control of gas oil product flow ratio during drum switch. This combination of control objectives in one multivariable predictive control program was achieved by including special logic to decouple the individual tuning requirements. Also, additional logic was included to unambiguously detect and identify drum switch and drum steam out as discrete events within 30 seconds of their actual occurrence. These discrete events were then used as disturbance variables to minimize fractionator transient behavior. As a performance measure, the overhead temperature was controlled within 2 C to 2.5 C of its target, gas oil flows were stabilized during drum switches and steam generation via pump around was maximized. Overall, implementing advanced control for the delayed coker fractionator resulted in substantial benefits from product quality control, product flow control and minimized energy consumption.

  6. Cumulative Damage Model for Advanced Composite Materials.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-09-01

    conditions of static loads; various theories have been advanced to predict the onset and progress of these individual damage events. • The approach taken in...composite laminates, one common approach is the well-known "first ply failure" theory (see e.g. Tsai and Hahn [l]). The basic assumption in the theory ...edge interlaminar stresses provides a physical x tai,-ntion of the edge delamination phenomenon; a suitable theory defining t he conditions for its

  7. Advances in cell culture

    SciTech Connect

    Maramorosch, K. )

    1987-01-01

    This book presents papers on advances in cell culture. Topics covered include: Genetic changes in the influenza viruses during growth in cultured cells; The biochemistry and genetics of mosquito cells in culture; and Tree tissue culture applications.

  8. Advanced information society(2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masuyama, Keiichi

    Our modern life is full of information and information infiltrates into our daily life. Networking of the telecommunication is extended to society, company, and individual level. Although we have just entered the advanced information society, business world and our daily life have been steadily transformed by the advancement of information network. This advancement of information brings a big influence on economy, and will play they the main role in the expansion of domestic demands. This paper tries to view the image of coming advanced information society, focusing on the transforming businessman's life and the situation of our daily life, which became wealthy by the spread of daily life information and the visual information by satellite system, in the development of the intelligent city.

  9. Advanced Electrochemical Waste Forms

    SciTech Connect

    Riley, Brian J.; Crum, Jarrod V.; McCloy, John S.; Matyas, Josef

    2011-12-01

    This is a brief description of PNNL's efforts in FY2011 towards developing advanced electrochemical waste forms. This is a short section that will become part of a larger document being put together by INL.

  10. Advanced care directives

    MedlinePlus

    ... you want no matter how ill you are. Writing an advance care directive may be hard. You ... wishes usually replace those you made previously in writing. Additional Information Write your living will or health ...

  11. Advance Control Measures & Programs

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    As areas develop their path forward or action plan, they should consider a variety of voluntary and mandatory measures and programs. The resources on this page can help, and participants are also encouraged to talk with their EPA Advance contact

  12. Living with Advanced MS

    MedlinePlus

    ... more progressive disease course. Taking these factors into account can help you and your family plan more effectively for the future. Identifying options The key message to anyone living with advanced MS is ...

  13. Advanced Welding Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ding, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    Four advanced welding techniques and their use in NASA are briefly reviewed in this poster presentation. The welding techniques reviewed are: Solid State Welding, Friction Stir Welding (FSW), Thermal Stir Welding (TSW) and Ultrasonic Stir Welding.

  14. Advances in Process Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, David L.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    Advances in electronics and computer science have enabled industries (pulp/paper, iron/steel, petroleum/chemical) to attain better control of their processes with resulting increases in quality, productivity, profitability, and compliance with government regulations. (JN)

  15. Advanced urology nursing practice.

    PubMed

    Crowe, Helen

    2014-03-01

    Urology nursing has developed as a specialty over the past few decades in response to several factors, workload demands being a prime reason. Nurses are taking on additional roles and activities including procedures such as cystoscopy and prostate biopsy, and running nurse-led clinics for a variety of urological conditions. Audits of advanced urological nursing practice have shown this care to be of a high standard and investigative procedures performed by these nurses match the diagnostic quality of existing services. Professional urological nursing organizations support the professional needs of these nurses, but the provision of education and training for advanced practice activities remains an unaddressed need. A range of confusing advanced urology nursing titles exists, and uncertainty regarding the roles and scope of practice for these nurses remains a concern. Acceptance and support from medical colleagues is required for the success of advanced urological nursing practice, but opinions on these roles remain divided.

  16. Useful theories make predictions.

    PubMed

    Howes, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Stephen and Van Orden (this issue) propose that there is a complex system approach to cognitive science, and collectively the authors of the papers presented in this issue believe that this approach provides the means to drive a revolution in the science of the mind. Unfortunately, however illuminating, this explanation is absent and hyperbole is all too extensive. In contrast, I argue (1) that dynamic systems theory is not new to cognitive science and does not provide a basis for a revolution, (2) it is not necessary to reject cognitive science in order to explain the constraints imposed by the body and the environment, (3) it is not necessary, as Silberstein and Chemero (this issue) appear to do, to reject cognitive science in order to explain consciousness, and (4) our understanding of pragmatics is not advanced by Gibbs and Van Orden's (this issue) "self-organized criticality".? Any debate about the future of cognitive science could usefully focus on predictive adequacy. Unfortunately, this is not the approach taken by the authors of this issue.

  17. Advanced Welding Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ding, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    Some of the applications of advanced welding techniques are shown in this poster presentation. Included are brief explanations of the use on the Ares I and Ares V launch vehicle and on the Space Shuttle Launch vehicle. Also included are microstructural views from four advanced welding techniques: Variable Polarity Plasma Arc (VPPA) weld (fusion), self-reacting friction stir welding (SR-FSW), conventional FSW, and Tube Socket Weld (TSW) on aluminum.

  18. Advanced planetary studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    Results of planetary advanced studies and planning support provided by Science Applications, Inc. staff members to Earth and Planetary Exploration Division, OSSA/NASA, for the period 1 February 1981 to 30 April 1982 are summarized. The scope of analyses includes cost estimation, planetary missions performance, solar system exploration committee support, Mars program planning, Galilean satellite mission concepts, and advanced propulsion data base. The work covers 80 man-months of research. Study reports and related publications are included in a bibliography section.

  19. Advanced Usability Evaluation Methods

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-04-01

    tracking in usability evaluation : A practitioner’s guide. In J. Hyönä, R. Radach, & H. Deubel. (Eds.), The mind’s eye: Cognitive and applied...Advanced Usability Evaluation Methods Terence S. Andre, Lt Col, USAF Margaret Schurig, Human Factors Design Specialist, The Boeing Co...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Advanced Usability Evaluation Methods 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT

  20. THE ADVANCED CHEMISTRY BASINS PROJECT

    SciTech Connect

    William Goddard; Peter Meulbroek; Yongchun Tang; Lawrence Cathles III

    2004-04-05

    In the next decades, oil exploration by majors and independents will increasingly be in remote, inaccessible areas, or in areas where there has been extensive shallow exploration but deeper exploration potential may remain; areas where the collection of data is expensive, difficult, or even impossible, and where the most efficient use of existing data can drive the economics of the target. The ability to read hydrocarbon chemistry in terms of subsurface migration processes by relating it to the evolution of the basin and fluid migration is perhaps the single technological capability that could most improve our ability to explore effectively because it would allow us to use a vast store of existing or easily collected chemical data to determine the major migration pathways in a basin and to determine if there is deep exploration potential. To this end a the DOE funded a joint effort between California Institute of Technology, Cornell University, and GeoGroup Inc. to assemble a representative set of maturity and maturation kinetic models and develop an advanced basin model able to predict the chemistry of hydrocarbons in a basin from this input data. The four year project is now completed and has produced set of public domain maturity indicator and maturation kinetic data set, an oil chemistry and flash calculation tool operable under Excel, and a user friendly, graphically intuitive basin model that uses this data and flash tool, operates on a PC, and simulates hydrocarbon generation and migration and the chemical changes that can occur during migration (such as phase separation and gas washing). The DOE Advanced Chemistry Basin Model includes a number of new methods that represent advances over current technology. The model is built around the concept of handling arbitrarily detailed chemical composition of fluids in a robust finite-element 2-D grid. There are three themes on which the model focuses: chemical kinetic and equilibrium reaction parameters, chemical

  1. Psychiatric Advance Directives: Getting Started

    MedlinePlus

    ... More... Home Getting Started National Resource Center on Psychiatric Advance Directives - Getting Started Getting Started Psychiatric advance directives (PADs) are relatively new legal instruments ...

  2. Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Ex-Vessel Prediction: Core Concrete Interaction

    SciTech Connect

    Robb, Kevin R; Farmer, Mitchell; Francis, Matthew W

    2015-01-01

    Lower head failure and corium concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis was carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input. MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. The results of the MELTSPREAD analysis are reported in a companion paper. This information was used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH.

  3. Prediction of brain maturity based on cortical thickness at different spatial resolutions.

    PubMed

    Khundrakpam, Budhachandra S; Tohka, Jussi; Evans, Alan C

    2015-05-01

    Several studies using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans have shown developmental trajectories of cortical thickness. Cognitive milestones happen concurrently with these structural changes, and a delay in such changes has been implicated in developmental disorders such as attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Accurate estimation of individuals' brain maturity, therefore, is critical in establishing a baseline for normal brain development against which neurodevelopmental disorders can be assessed. In this study, cortical thickness derived from structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of a large longitudinal dataset of normally growing children and adolescents (n=308), were used to build a highly accurate predictive model for estimating chronological age (cross-validated correlation up to R=0.84). Unlike previous studies which used kernelized approach in building prediction models, we used an elastic net penalized linear regression model capable of producing a spatially sparse, yet accurate predictive model of chronological age. Upon investigating different scales of cortical parcellation from 78 to 10,240 brain parcels, we observed that the accuracy in estimated age improved with increased spatial scale of brain parcellation, with the best estimations obtained for spatial resolutions consisting of 2560 and 10,240 brain parcels. The top predictors of brain maturity were found in highly localized sensorimotor and association areas. The results of our study demonstrate that cortical thickness can be used to estimate individuals' brain maturity with high accuracy, and the estimated ages relate to functional and behavioural measures, underscoring the relevance and scope of the study in the understanding of biological maturity.

  4. Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 ex-vessel prediction: Core melt spreading

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, M. T.; Robb, K. R.; Francis, M. W.

    2016-10-31

    Lower head failure and corium-concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis has been carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input. MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially-dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. Lastly, this information was then used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH that is reported in a companion paper.

  5. Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 ex-vessel prediction: Core melt spreading

    DOE PAGES

    Farmer, M. T.; Robb, K. R.; Francis, M. W.

    2016-10-31

    Lower head failure and corium-concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis has been carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input.more » MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially-dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. Lastly, this information was then used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH that is reported in a companion paper.« less

  6. Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

    DOEpatents

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

    2008-11-25

    A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

  7. Prediction of AVM obliteration after stereotactic radiotherapy using radiobiological modelling.

    PubMed

    Mavroidis, Panayiotis; Theodorou, Kyriaki; Lefkopoulos, Dimitrios; Nataf, François; Schlienger, Michel; Karlsson, Bengt; Lax, Ingmar; Kappas, Constantin; Lind, Bengt K; Brahme, Anders

    2002-07-21

    This study was carried out in order to derive the radiobiological parameters of the dose-response relation for the obliteration of arteriovenous malformation (AVM) following single fraction stereotactic radiotherapy. Furthermore, the accuracy by which the linear Poisson model predicts the probability of obliteration and how the haemorrhage history, location and volume of the AVM influence its radiosensitivity are investigated. The study patient material consists of 85 patients who received radiation for AVM therapy. Radiation-induced AVM obliterations were assessed on the basis of post-irradiation angiographies and other radiological findings. For each patient the dose delivered to the clinical target volume and the clinical treatment outcome were available. These data were used in a maximum likelihood analysis to calculate the best estimates of the parameters of the linear Poisson model. The uncertainties of these parameters were also calculated and their individual influence on the dose-response curve was studied. AVM radiosensitivity was assumed to be the same for all the patients. The radiobiological model used was proved suitable for predicting the treatment outcome pattern of the studied patient material. The radiobiological parameters of the model were calculated for different AVM locations, bleeding histories and AVM sizes. The range of parameter variability had considerable effect on the dose-response curve of AVM. The correlation between the dosimetric data and their corresponding clinical effect could be accurately modelled using the linear Poisson model. The derived response parameters can be introduced into the clinical routine with the calculated accuracy assuming the same methodology in target definition and delineation. The known volume dependence of AVM radiosensitivity was confirmed. Moreover, a trend relating AVM location with its radiosensitivity was observed.

  8. Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Theresa F.

    In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

  9. Ceramic Technology for Advanced Heat Engines Project

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-08-01

    The Ceramic Technology For Advanced Heat Engines Project was developed by the Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Systems (OTS) in Conservation and Renewable Energy. This project, part of the OTS's Advanced Materials Development Program, was developed to meet the ceramic technology requirements of the OTS's automotive technology programs. Significant accomplishments in fabricating ceramic components for the Department of Energy (DOE), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and Department of Defense (DOD) advanced heat engine programs have provided evidence that the operation of ceramic parts in high-temperature engine environments is feasible. However, these programs have also demonstrated that additional research is needed in materials and processing development, design methodology, and data base and life prediction before industry will have a sufficient technology base from which to produce reliable cost-effective ceramic engine components commercially. An assessment of needs was completed, and a five year project plan was developed with extensive input from private industry. The objective of the project is to develop the industrial technology base required for reliable ceramics for application in advanced automotive heat engines. The project approach includes determining the mechanisms controlling reliability, improving processes for fabricating existing ceramics, developing new materials with increased reliability, and testing these materials in simulated engine environments to confirm reliability. Although this is a generic materials project, the focus is on structural ceramics for advanced gas turbine and diesel engines, ceramic hearings and attachments, and ceramic coatings for thermal barrier and wear applications in these engines.

  10. Recruit and ADVANCE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosser, Sue V.

    2007-04-01

    Beginning in 2001, the National Science Foundation launched the ADVANCE Initiative, which has now awarded more than 70 million to some thirty institutions for transformations to advance women. Results of studies on how to attract and retain women students and faculty underpinned our ADVANCE Institutional Transformation grant funded by the NSF for 3.7 million for five years, beginning in 2001. As co-principal investigator on this grant, I insured that this research informed the five major threads of the grant: 1) Four termed ADVANCE professors to mentor junior women faculty in each college; 2) Collection of MIT-Report-like data indicators to assess whether advancement of women really occurs during and after the institutional transformation undertaken through ADVANCE; 3) Family-friendly policies and practices to stop the tenure clock and provide active service, modified duties, lactation stations and day care; 4) Mini-retreats to facilitate access for tenure-track women faculty to male decision-makers and administrators for informal conversations and discussion on topics important to women faculty; 5) Removal of subtle gender, racial, and other biases in promotion and tenure. The dynamic changes resulting from the grant in quality of mentoring, new understanding of promotion and tenure, numbers of women retained and given endowed chairs, and emergence of new family friendly policies gave me hope for genuine diversification of leadership in science and technology. As the grant funding ends, the absence of NSF prestige and monitoring, coupled with a change in academic leadership at the top, provide new challenges for institutionalization, recruitment, and advancement of women into leadership positions in science and engineering.

  11. Do Advance Directives Direct?

    PubMed

    Shapiro, Susan P

    2015-06-01

    Resolution of long-standing debates about the role and impact of advance directives - living wills and powers of attorney for health care - has been hampered by a dearth of appropriate data, in particular data that compare the process and outcomes of end-of-life decision making on behalf of patients with and without advance directives. Drawing on a large ethnographic study of patients in two intensive care units in a large urban teaching hospital, this article compares aspects of the medical decision-making process and outcomes by advance-directive status. Controlling for demographic characteristics and severity of illness, the study finds few significant differences between patients without advance directives and those who claim to have them. Surprisingly, these few differences hold only for those whose directives are in their hospital chart. There are no significant differences between those with no directive and those claiming to have a copy at home or elsewhere. The article considers the implications if directives seemingly must be in hand to show even modest effects. Do advance directives direct? The intensive care unit data provide far more support for the growing body of literature that casts doubt on their impact than studies that promote the use of them.

  12. Neural Elements for Predictive Coding

    PubMed Central

    Shipp, Stewart

    2016-01-01

    Predictive coding theories of sensory brain function interpret the hierarchical construction of the cerebral cortex as a Bayesian, generative model capable of predicting the sensory data consistent with any given percept. Predictions are fed backward in the hierarchy and reciprocated by prediction error in the forward direction, acting to modify the representation of the outside world at increasing levels of abstraction, and so to optimize the nature of perception over a series of iterations. This accounts for many ‘illusory’ instances of perception where what is seen (heard, etc.) is unduly influenced by what is expected, based on past experience. This simple conception, the hierarchical exchange of prediction and prediction error, confronts a rich cortical microcircuitry that is yet to be fully documented. This article presents the view that, in the current state of theory and practice, it is profitable to begin a two-way exchange: that predictive coding theory can support an understanding of cortical microcircuit function, and prompt particular aspects of future investigation, whilst existing knowledge of microcircuitry can, in return, influence theoretical development. As an example, a neural inference arising from the earliest formulations of predictive coding is that the source populations of forward and backward pathways should be completely separate, given their functional distinction; this aspect of circuitry – that neurons with extrinsically bifurcating axons do not project in both directions – has only recently been confirmed. Here, the computational architecture prescribed by a generalized (free-energy) formulation of predictive coding is combined with the classic ‘canonical microcircuit’ and the laminar architecture of hierarchical extrinsic connectivity to produce a template schematic, that is further examined in the light of (a) updates in the microcircuitry of primate visual cortex, and (b) rapid technical advances made possible by

  13. Advanced transmission studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coy, John J.; Bill, Robert C.

    1988-01-01

    The NASA Lewis Research Center and the U.S. Army Aviation Systems Command share an interest in advancing the technology for helicopter propulsion systems. In particular, this paper presents highlights from that portion of the program in drive train technology and the related mechanical components. The major goals of the program are to increase the life, reliability, and maintainability; reduce the weight, noise, and vibration; and maintain the relatively high mechanical efficiency of the gear train. The current activity emphasizes noise reduction technology and analytical code development followed by experimental verification. Selected significant advances in technology for transmissions are reviewed, including advanced configurations and new analytical tools. Finally, the plan for future transmission research is presented.

  14. Advanced servomanipulator development

    SciTech Connect

    Kuban, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    The Advanced Servomanipulator (ASM) System consists of three major components: the ASM slave, the dual arm master controller (DAMC) or master, and the control system. The ASM is remotely maintainable force-reflecting servomanipulator developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as part of the Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program. This new manipulator addresses requirements of advanced nuclear fuel reprocessing with emphasis on force reflection, remote maintainability, reliability, radiation tolerance, and corrosion resistance. The advanced servomanipulator is uniquely subdivided into remotely replaceable modules which will permit in situ manipulator repair by spare module replacement. Manipulator modularization and increased reliability are accomplished through a force transmission system that uses gears and torque tubes. Digital control algorithms and mechanical precision are used to offset the increased backlash, friction, and inertia resulting from the gear drives. This results in the first remotely maintainable force-reflecting servomanipulator in the world.

  15. Advanced thermionic energy conversion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Britt, E. J.; Fitzpatrick, G. D.; Hansen, L. K.; Rasor, N. S.

    1974-01-01

    Basic analytical and experimental exploration was conducted on several types of advanced thermionic energy converters, and preliminary analysis was performed on systems utilizing advanced converter performance. The Pt--Nb cylindrical diode which exhibited a suppressed arc drop, as described in the preceding report, was reassembled and the existence of the postulated hydrid mode of operation was tentatively confirmed. Initial data obtained on ignited and unignited triode operation in the demountable cesium vapor system essentially confirmed the design principles developed in earlier work, with a few exceptions. Three specific advanced converter concepts were selected as candidates for concentrated basic study and for practical evaluation in fixed-configuration converters. Test vehicles and test stands for these converters and a unique controlled-atmosphere station for converter assembly and processing were designed, and procurement was initiated.

  16. Advanced Aerodynamic Control Effectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wood, Richard M.; Bauer, Steven X. S.

    1999-01-01

    A 1990 research program that focused on the development of advanced aerodynamic control effectors (AACE) for military aircraft has been reviewed and summarized. Data are presented for advanced planform, flow control, and surface contouring technologies. The data show significant increases in lift, reductions in drag, and increased control power, compared to typical aerodynamic designs. The results presented also highlighted the importance of planform selection in the design of a control effector suite. Planform data showed that dramatic increases in lift (greater than 25%) can be achieved with multiple wings and a sawtooth forebody. Passive porosity and micro drag generator control effector data showed control power levels exceeding that available from typical effectors (moving surfaces). Application of an advanced planform to a tailless concept showed benefits of similar magnitude as those observed in the generic studies.

  17. [Advanced Composites Technology Initiatives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Julian, Mark R.

    2002-01-01

    This final report closes out the W02 NASA Grant #NCC5-646. The FY02 grant for advanced technology initiatives through the Advanced Composites Technology Institute in Bridgeport, WV, at the Robert C. Byrd Institute (RCBI) Bridgeport Manufacturing Technology Center, is complete; all funding has been expended. RCBI continued to expand access to technology; develop and implement a workforce-training curriculum; improve material development; and provide prototyping and demonstrations of new and advanced composites technologies for West Virginia composites firms. The FY 02 efforts supported workforce development, technical training and the HST development effort of a super-lightweight composite carrier prototype and expanded the existing technical capabilities of the growing aerospace industry across West Virginia to provide additional support for NASA missions. Additionally, the Composites Technology and Training Center was awarded IS0 9001 - 2000 certification and Cleanroom Class 1000 certification during this report period.

  18. Advanced ramjet concepts program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leingang, J. L.

    1992-01-01

    Uniquely advantageous features, on both the performance and weight sides of the ledger, can be achieved through synergistic design integration of airbreathing and rocket technologies in the development of advanced orbital space transport propulsion systems of the combined cycle type. In the context of well understood advanced airbreathing and liquid rocket propulsion principles and practices, this precept of synergism is advanced mainly through six rather specific examples. These range from the detailed component level to the overall vehicle system level as follows: using jet compression; achieving a high area ratio rocket nozzle; ameliorating gas generator cycle rocket system deficiencies; using the in-duct special rocket thrust chamber assembly as the principal scramjet fuel injection operation; using the unstowed, covered fan as a duct closure for effecting high area ratio rocket mode operation; and creating a unique airbreathing rocket system via the onboard, cryogenic hydrogen induced air liquefaction process.

  19. Advances in diagnostic radiology.

    PubMed

    Runge, Val M

    2010-12-01

    Recent advances in diagnostic radiology are discussed on the basis of current publications in Investigative Radiology. Publications in the journal during 2009 and 2010 are reviewed, evaluating developments by modality and anatomic region. Technological advances continue to play a major role in the evolution and clinical practice of diagnostic radiology, and as such constitute a major publication focus. In the past 2 years, this includes advances in both magnetic resonance and computed tomography (in particular, the advent of dual energy computed tomography). An additional major focus of publications concerns contrast media, and in particular continuing research involving nephrogenic systemic fibrosis, its etiology, and differentiation of the gadolinium chelates on the basis of in vivo stability.

  20. Advanced rocket propulsion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Obrien, Charles J.

    1993-01-01

    Existing NASA research contracts are supporting development of advanced reinforced polymer and metal matrix composites for use in liquid rocket engines of the future. Advanced rocket propulsion concepts, such as modular platelet engines, dual-fuel dual-expander engines, and variable mixture ratio engines, require advanced materials and structures to reduce overall vehicle weight as well as address specific propulsion system problems related to elevated operating temperatures, new engine components, and unique operating processes. High performance propulsion systems with improved manufacturability and maintainability are needed for single stage to orbit vehicles and other high performance mission applications. One way to satisfy these needs is to develop a small engine which can be clustered in modules to provide required levels of total thrust. This approach should reduce development schedule and cost requirements by lowering hardware lead times and permitting the use of existing test facilities. Modular engines should also reduce operational costs associated with maintenance and parts inventories.