Science.gov

Sample records for advanced best-estimate predictions

  1. TRAC-PF1: an advanced best-estimate computer program for pressurized water reactor analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Liles, D.R.; Mahaffy, J.H.

    1984-02-01

    The Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) is being developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory to provide advanced best-estimate predictions of postulated accidents in light water reactors. The TRAC-PF1 program provides this capability for pressurized water reactors and for many thermal-hydraulic experimental facilities. The code features either a one-dimensional or a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and its associated internals; a two-phase, two-fluid nonequilibrium hydrodynamics model with a noncondensable gas field; flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment; optional reflood tracking capability for both bottom flood and falling-film quench fronts; and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions. This report describes the thermal-hydraulic models and the numerical solution methods used in the code. Detailed programming and user information also are provided.

  2. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology including advanced validation concepts to license evolving nuclear reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Unal, Cetin; Williams, Brian; Mc Clure, Patrick; Nelson, Ralph A

    2010-01-01

    Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for cost

  3. Ares I-X Best Estimated Trajectory and Comparison with Pre-Flight Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karlgaard, Christopher D.; Beck, Roger E.; Derry, Stephen D.; Brandon, Jay M.; Starr, Brett R.; Tartabini, Paul V.; Olds, Aaron D.

    2011-01-01

    The Ares I-X trajectory reconstruction produced best estimated trajectories of the flight test vehicle ascent through stage separation, and of the first and upper stage entries after separation. The trajectory reconstruction process combines on-board, ground-based, and atmospheric measurements to produce the trajectory estimates. The Ares I-X vehicle had a number of on-board and ground based sensors that were available, including inertial measurement units, radar, air- data, and weather balloons. However, due to problems with calibrations and/or data, not all of the sensor data were used. The trajectory estimate was generated using an Iterative Extended Kalman Filter algorithm, which is an industry standard processing algorithm for filtering and estimation applications. This paper describes the methodology and results of the trajectory reconstruction process, including flight data preprocessing and input uncertainties, trajectory estimation algorithms, output transformations, and comparisons with preflight predictions.

  4. TRAC-PF1/MOD1: an advanced best-estimate computer program for pressurized water reactor thermal-hydraulic analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Liles, D.R.; Mahaffy, J.H.

    1986-07-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory is developing the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) to provide advanced best-estimate predictions of postulated accidents in light-water reactors. The TRAC-PF1/MOD1 program provides this capability for pressurized water reactors and for many thermal-hydraulic test facilities. The code features either a one- or a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and its associated internals, a two-fluid nonequilibrium hydrodynamics model with a noncondensable gas field and solute tracking, flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment, optional reflood tracking capability for bottom-flood and falling-film quench fronts, and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions. The stability-enhancing two-step (SETS) numerical algorithm is used in the one-dimensional hydrodynamics and permits this portion of the fluid dynamics to violate the material Courant condition. This technique permits large time steps and, hence, reduced running time for slow transients.

  5. On the extension of modern best-estimate plus uncertainy methodologies to future fast reactor and advanced fuel licensing - initial evaluation of issues

    SciTech Connect

    Unal, Cetin; Mcclure, Patrick R

    2009-01-01

    precedence in the NRC. The method is generically referred to as a 'Best Estimate plus Uncertainty' approach (BE+U), since the goal of the methodology is to compare the model value (best estimate) plus any uncertainty to a figure of merit like cladding temperature. The challenges for extending the BE+U (1) method for fuel qualification for an Advanced Reactor Fuel are driven by: schedule, the need for data, the data sufficiency, the identification of important phenomenon, the process of validation (with focus on the multi-scale model), and the need to produce and extended best estimate plus uncertainty methodology. This paper examines these issues an offers up a proposed set of methods that extend the current BE+U methodology address most if not all of these challenges.

  6. Benchmarking and qualification of the NUFREQ-NPW code for best estimate prediction of multi-channel core stability margins

    SciTech Connect

    Taleyarkhan, R.; Lahey, R.T. Jr.; McFarlane, A.F.; Podowski, M.Z.

    1988-01-01

    The NUFREQ-NPW code was modified and set up at Westinghouse, USA for mixed fuel type multi-channel core-wide stability analysis. The resulting code, NUFREQ-NPW, allows for variable axial power profiles between channel groups and can handle mixed fuel types. Various models incorporated into NUFREQ-NPW were systematically compared against the Westinghouse channel stability analysis code MAZDA-NF, for which the mathematical model was developed, in an entirely different manner. Excellent agreement was obtained which verified the thermal-hydraulic modeling and coding aspects. Detailed comparisons were also performed against nuclear-coupled reactor core stability data. All thirteen Peach Bottom-2 EOC-2/3 low flow stability tests were simulated. A key aspect for code qualification involved the development of a physically based empirical algorithm to correct for the effect of core inlet flow development on subcooled boiling. Various other modeling assumptions were tested and sensitivity studies performed. Good agreement was obtained between NUFREQ-NPW predictions and data. Moreover, predictions were generally on the conservative side. The results of detailed direct comparisons with experimental data using the NUFREQ-NPW code; have demonstrated that BWR core stability margins are conservatively predicted, and all data trends are captured with good accuracy. The methodology is thus suitable for BWR design and licensing purposes. 11 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Best-Estimate Analysis PWR LOCA.

    2005-11-11

    Version: 00 TRAC‑PF1 performs best estimate analyses of loss of coolant accidents and other transients in pressurized light water reactors. The program can also be used to model a wide range of thermal hydraulic experiments in reduced scale facilities. Models employed include reflood, multi‑dimensional two‑phase flow, nonequilibrium thermodynamics, generalized heat transfer, and reactor kinetics. Automatic steady‑state and dump/restart capabilities are provided. The changes reported in TRACNEWS issues through Number 7 are incorporated in this release.more » TRAC-PF1 was developed on a CDC computer at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The PC version of TRAC‑PF1 was converted at CNEN in 1989 and has not been updated since that time. The NRC no longer supports the TRAC codes. They currently develop and maintain the TRACE code system, which is the TRAC/RELAP Advanced Computational Engine. TRACE is a modernized thermal-hydraulics code designed to consolidate the capabilities of NRC's 3 legacy safety codes - TRAC-P, TRAC-B and RELAP. This is NRC's flagship thermal-hydraulics analysis tool. See the website for more information http://www.nrccodes.com/.« less

  8. Best-Estimate Analysis PWR LOCA.

    SciTech Connect

    MAHAFFY, J. H.

    2005-11-11

    Version: 00 TRAC‑PF1 performs best estimate analyses of loss of coolant accidents and other transients in pressurized light water reactors. The program can also be used to model a wide range of thermal hydraulic experiments in reduced scale facilities. Models employed include reflood, multi‑dimensional two‑phase flow, nonequilibrium thermodynamics, generalized heat transfer, and reactor kinetics. Automatic steady‑state and dump/restart capabilities are provided. The changes reported in TRACNEWS issues through Number 7 are incorporated in this release. TRAC-PF1 was developed on a CDC computer at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The PC version of TRAC‑PF1 was converted at CNEN in 1989 and has not been updated since that time. The NRC no longer supports the TRAC codes. They currently develop and maintain the TRACE code system, which is the TRAC/RELAP Advanced Computational Engine. TRACE is a modernized thermal-hydraulics code designed to consolidate the capabilities of NRC's 3 legacy safety codes - TRAC-P, TRAC-B and RELAP. This is NRC's flagship thermal-hydraulics analysis tool. See the website for more information http://www.nrccodes.com/.

  9. Aerosol Best Estimate Value-Added Product

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, C; Turner, D; Koontz, A; Chand, D; Sivaraman, C

    2012-07-19

    The objective of the Aerosol Best Estimate (AEROSOLBE) value-added product (VAP) is to provide vertical profiles of aerosol extinction, single scatter albedo, asymmetry parameter, and Angstroem exponents for the atmospheric column above the Central Facility at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. We expect that AEROSOLBE will provide nearly continuous estimates of aerosol optical properties under a range of conditions (clear, broken clouds, overcast clouds, etc.). The primary requirement of this VAP was to provide an aerosol data set as continuous as possible in both time and height for the Broadband Heating Rate Profile (BBHRP) VAP in order to provide a structure for the comprehensive assessment of our ability to model atmospheric radiative transfer for all conditions. Even though BBHRP has been completed, AEROSOLBE results are very valuable for environmental, atmospheric, and climate research.

  10. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, S.; Jensen, M.; McCoy, R. B.; Klein, S. A.; Cederwall, R. T.; Wiscombe, W. J.; Clothiaux, E. E.; Gaustad, K. L.; Golaz, J.-C.; Hall, S.; Johnson, K. L.; Lin, Y.; Long, C. N.; Mather, J. H.; McCord, R. A.; McFarlane, S. A.; Palanisamy, G.; Shi, Y.; Turner, D. D.

    2010-01-01

    can hamper the use of ACRF data by the climate community. To make ACRF data better serve the needs of climate studies and model development, ARM has developed a data product specifically tailored for use by the climate community. The new data product, named the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) dataset, assembles those quantities that are both well observed by ACRF over many years and are often used in model evaluation into one single dataset. The CMBE product consists of hourly averages and thus has temporal resolution comparable to a typical resolution used in climate model output. It also includes standard deviations within the averaged hour and quality control flags for the selected quantities to indicate the temporal variability and data quality. Since its initial release in February 2008, the new data product has quickly drawn the attention of the climate modeling community. It is being used for model evaluation by two major U.S. climate modeling centers, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of CMBE data and a few examples that demonstrate the potential value of CMBE data for climate modeling and in studies of cloud processes and climate variability and change.

  11. Ares I-X Best Estimated Trajectory Analysis and Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karlgaard, Christopher D.; Beck, Roger E.; Starr, Brett R.; Derry, Stephen D.; Brandon, Jay; Olds, Aaron D.

    2011-01-01

    The Ares I-X trajectory reconstruction produced best estimated trajectories of the flight test vehicle ascent through stage separation, and of the first and upper stage entries after separation. The trajectory reconstruction process combines on-board, ground-based, and atmospheric measurements to produce the trajectory estimates. The Ares I-X vehicle had a number of on-board and ground based sensors that were available, including inertial measurement units, radar, air-data, and weather balloons. However, due to problems with calibrations and/or data, not all of the sensor data were used. The trajectory estimate was generated using an Iterative Extended Kalman Filter algorithm, which is an industry standard processing algorithm for filtering and estimation applications. This paper describes the methodology and results of the trajectory reconstruction process, including flight data preprocessing and input uncertainties, trajectory estimation algorithms, output transformations, and comparisons with preflight predictions.

  12. Predicting Epileptic Seizures in Advance

    PubMed Central

    Moghim, Negin; Corne, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epilepsy is the second most common neurological disorder, affecting 0.6–0.8% of the world's population. In this neurological disorder, abnormal activity of the brain causes seizures, the nature of which tend to be sudden. Antiepileptic Drugs (AEDs) are used as long-term therapeutic solutions that control the condition. Of those treated with AEDs, 35% become resistant to medication. The unpredictable nature of seizures poses risks for the individual with epilepsy. It is clearly desirable to find more effective ways of preventing seizures for such patients. The automatic detection of oncoming seizures, before their actual onset, can facilitate timely intervention and hence minimize these risks. In addition, advance prediction of seizures can enrich our understanding of the epileptic brain. In this study, drawing on the body of work behind automatic seizure detection and prediction from digitised Invasive Electroencephalography (EEG) data, a prediction algorithm, ASPPR (Advance Seizure Prediction via Pre-ictal Relabeling), is described. ASPPR facilitates the learning of predictive models targeted at recognizing patterns in EEG activity that are in a specific time window in advance of a seizure. It then exploits advanced machine learning coupled with the design and selection of appropriate features from EEG signals. Results, from evaluating ASPPR independently on 21 different patients, suggest that seizures for many patients can be predicted up to 20 minutes in advance of their onset. Compared to benchmark performance represented by a mean S1-Score (harmonic mean of Sensitivity and Specificity) of 90.6% for predicting seizure onset between 0 and 5 minutes in advance, ASPPR achieves mean S1-Scores of: 96.30% for prediction between 1 and 6 minutes in advance, 96.13% for prediction between 8 and 13 minutes in advance, 94.5% for prediction between 14 and 19 minutes in advance, and 94.2% for prediction between 20 and 25 minutes in advance. PMID:24911316

  13. The ARM Best Estimate 2-dimensional Gridded Surface

    SciTech Connect

    Xie,Shaocheng; Qi, Tang

    2015-06-15

    The ARM Best Estimate 2-dimensional Gridded Surface (ARMBE2DGRID) data set merges together key surface measurements at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) sites and interpolates the data to a regular 2D grid to facilitate data application. Data from the original site locations can be found in the ARM Best Estimate Station-based Surface (ARMBESTNS) data set.

  14. The Best Estimated Trajectory Analysis for Pad Abort One

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kutty, Prasad; Noonan, Meghan; Karlgaard, Christopher; Beck, Roger

    2011-01-01

    I. Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) objective: a) Produce reconstructed trajectory of the PA-1 flight to understand vehicle dynamics and aid other post flight analyses. b) Leverage all measurement sources taken of vehicle during flight to produce the most accurate estimate of vehicle trajectory. c) Generate trajectory reconstructions of the Crew Module (CM), Launch Abort System (LAS), and Forward Bay Cover (FBC). II. BET analysis was started immediately following the PA-1 mission and was completed in September, 2010 a) Quick look version of BET released 5/25/2010: initial repackaging of SIGI data. b) Preliminary version of BET released 7/6/2010: first blended solution using available sources of external measurements. c) Final version of BET released 9/1/2010: final blended solution using all available sources of data.

  15. Advances in predicting acute GVHD

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Andrew C.; Ferrara, James L.M.; Levine, John E.

    2012-01-01

    Summary Acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a leading cause of non-relapse mortality following allogeneic haematopoietic cell transplantation. Attempts to improve treatment response in clinically-established GVHD have not improved overall survival, often due to the increased risk of infectious complications. Alternative approaches to decrease GVHD-related morbidity and mortality have focused on the ability to predict GVHD prior to clinical manifestation in an effort to provide an opportunity to abort GVHD development, and to gain new insights into GVHD pathophysiology. This review outlines the research efforts to date that have identified clinical and laboratory-based factors that are predictive of acute GVHD and describes future directions in developing algorithms that will improve the ability to predict the development of clinically relevant GVHD. PMID:23205489

  16. Effects of improved modeling on best estimate BWR severe accident analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Hyman, C.R.; Ott, L.J.

    1984-01-01

    Since 1981, ORNL has completed best estimate studies analyzing several dominant BWR accident scenarios. These scenarios were identified by early Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) studies and detailed ORNL analysis complements such studies. In performing these studies, ORNL has used the MARCH code extensively. ORNL investigators have identified several deficiencies in early versions of MARCH with regard to BWR modeling. Some of these deficiencies appear to have been remedied by the most recent release of the code. It is the purpose of this paper to identify several of these deficiencies. All the information presented concerns the degraded core thermal/hydraulic analysis associated with each of the ORNL studies. This includes calculations of the containment response. The period of interest is from the time of permanent core uncovery to the end of the transient. Specific objectives include the determination of the extent of core damage and timing of major events (i.e., onset of Zr/H/sub 2/O reaction, initial clad/fuel melting, loss of control blade structure, etc.). As mentioned previously the major analysis tool used thus far was derived from an early version of MARCH. BWRs have unique features which must be modeled for best estimate severe accident analysis. ORNL has developed and incorporated into its version of MARCH several improved models. These include (1) channel boxes and control blades, (2) SRV actuations, (3) vessel water level, (4) multi-node analysis of in-vessel water inventory, (5) comprehensive hydrogen and water properties package, (6) first order correction to the ideal gas law, and (7) separation of fuel and cladding. Ongoing and future modeling efforts are required. These include (1) detailed modeling for the pressure suppression pool, (2) incorporation of B/sub 4/C/steam reaction models, (3) phenomenological model of corium mass transport, and (4) advanced corium/concrete interaction modeling. 10 references, 17 figures, 1 table.

  17. Predicting Career Advancement with Structural Equation Modelling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heimler, Ronald; Rosenberg, Stuart; Morote, Elsa-Sofia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to use the authors' prior findings concerning basic employability skills in order to determine which skills best predict career advancement potential. Design/methodology/approach: Utilizing survey responses of human resource managers, the employability skills showing the largest relationships to career…

  18. Best Estimate Radiation Flux Value-Added Procedure. Algorithm Operational Details and Explanations

    SciTech Connect

    Shi, Y.; Long, C. N.

    2002-10-01

    This document describes some specifics of the algorithm for best estimate evaluation of radiation fluxes at Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility (CF). It uses the data available from the three co-located surface radiometer platforms at the SGP CF to automatically determine the best estimate of the irradiance measurements available. The Best Estimate Flux (BEFlux) value-added procedure (VAP) was previously named Best Estimate ShortWave (BESW) VAP, which included all of the broadband and spectral shortwave (SW) measurements for the SGP CF. In BESW, multiple measurements of the same quantities were handled simply by designating one as the primary measurement and using all others to merely fill in any gaps. Thus, this “BESW” is better termed “most continuous,” since no additional quality assessment was applied. We modified the algorithm in BESW to use the average of the closest two measurements as the best estimate when possible, if these measurements pass all quality assessment criteria. Furthermore, we included longwave (LW) fields in the best estimate evaluation to include all major components of the surface radiative energy budget, and renamed the VAP to Best Estimate Flux (BEFLUX1LONG).

  19. Predictive Dynamic Security Assessment through Advanced Computing

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Zhenyu; Diao, Ruisheng; Jin, Shuangshuang; Chen, Yousu

    2014-11-30

    Abstract— Traditional dynamic security assessment is limited by several factors and thus falls short in providing real-time information to be predictive for power system operation. These factors include the steady-state assumption of current operating points, static transfer limits, and low computational speed. This addresses these factors and frames predictive dynamic security assessment. The primary objective of predictive dynamic security assessment is to enhance the functionality and computational process of dynamic security assessment through the use of high-speed phasor measurements and the application of advanced computing technologies for faster-than-real-time simulation. This paper presents algorithms, computing platforms, and simulation frameworks that constitute the predictive dynamic security assessment capability. Examples of phasor application and fast computation for dynamic security assessment are included to demonstrate the feasibility and speed enhancement for real-time applications.

  20. Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem

  1. Advancements in predictive plasma formation modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Purvis, Michael A.; Schafgans, Alexander; Brown, Daniel J. W.; Fomenkov, Igor; Rafac, Rob; Brown, Josh; Tao, Yezheng; Rokitski, Slava; Abraham, Mathew; Vargas, Mike; Rich, Spencer; Taylor, Ted; Brandt, David; Pirati, Alberto; Fisher, Aaron; Scott, Howard; Koniges, Alice; Eder, David; Wilks, Scott; Link, Anthony; Langer, Steven

    2016-03-01

    We present highlights from plasma simulations performed in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Labs. This modeling is performed to advance the rate of learning about optimal EUV generation for laser produced plasmas and to provide insights where experimental results are not currently available. The goal is to identify key physical processes necessary for an accurate and predictive model capable of simulating a wide range of conditions. This modeling will help to drive source performance scaling in support of the EUV Lithography roadmap. The model simulates pre-pulse laser interaction with the tin droplet and follows the droplet expansion into the main pulse target zone. Next, the interaction of the expanded droplet with the main laser pulse is simulated. We demonstrate the predictive nature of the code and provide comparison with experimental results.

  2. Stream temperature estimated in situ from thermal-infrared images: best estimate and uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iezzi, F.; Todisco, M. T.

    2015-11-01

    The paper aims to show a technique to estimate in situ the stream temperature from thermal-infrared images deepening its best estimate and uncertainty. Stream temperature is an important indicator of water quality and nowadays its assessment is important particularly for thermal pollution monitoring in water bodies. Stream temperature changes are especially due to the anthropogenic heat input from urban wastewater and from water used as a coolant by power plants and industrial manufacturers. The stream temperatures assessment using ordinary techniques (e.g. appropriate thermometers) is limited by sparse sampling in space due to a spatial discretization necessarily punctual. Latest and most advanced techniques assess the stream temperature using thermal-infrared remote sensing based on thermal imagers placed usually on aircrafts or using satellite images. These techniques assess only the surface water temperature and they are suitable to detect the temperature of vast water bodies but do not allow a detailed and precise surface water temperature assessment in limited areas of the water body. The technique shown in this research is based on the assessment of thermal-infrared images obtained in situ via portable thermal imager. As in all thermographic techniques, also in this technique, it is possible to estimate only the surface water temperature. A stream with the presence of a discharge of urban wastewater is proposed as case study to validate the technique and to show its application limits. Since the technique analyzes limited areas in extension of the water body, it allows a detailed and precise assessment of the water temperature. In general, the punctual and average stream temperatures are respectively uncorrected and corrected. An appropriate statistical method that minimizes the errors in the average stream temperature is proposed. The correct measurement of this temperature through the assessment of thermal- infrared images obtained in situ via portable

  3. The ARM Best Estimate Station-based Surface (ARMBESTNS) Data set

    SciTech Connect

    Qi,Tang; Xie,Shaocheng

    2015-08-06

    The ARM Best Estimate Station-based Surface (ARMBESTNS) data set merges together key surface measurements from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) sites. It is a twin data product of the ARM Best Estimate 2-dimensional Gridded Surface (ARMBE2DGRID) data set. Unlike the 2DGRID data set, the STNS data are reported at the original site locations and show the original information, except for the interpolation over time. Therefore, users have the flexibility to process the data with the approach more suitable for their applications.

  4. Best estimate radiation heat transfer model developed for TRAC-BD1

    SciTech Connect

    Spore, J.W.; Giles, M.M.; Shumway, R.W.

    1981-01-01

    A best estimate radiation heat transfer model for analysis of BWR fuel bundles has been developed and compared with 8 x 8 fuel bundle data. The model includes surface-to-surface and surface-to-two-phase fluid radiation heat transfer. A simple method of correcting for anisotropic reflection effects has been included in the model.

  5. Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Best Estimate (CSSEFARMBE)

    SciTech Connect

    Riihimaki, Laura D.; Gaustad, Krista L.; McFarlane, Sally A.

    2012-09-28

    The Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) project is working to improve the representation of the hydrological cycle in global climate models, critical information necessary for decision-makers to respond appropriately to predictions of future climate. In order to accomplish this objective, CSSEF is building testbeds to implement uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques to objectively calibrate and diagnose climate model parameterizations and predictions with respect to local, process-scale observations. In order to quantify the agreement between models and observations accurately, uncertainty estimates on these observations are needed. The DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program takes atmospheric and climate related measurements at three permanent locations worldwide. The ARM VAP called the ARM Best Estimate (ARMBE) [Xie et al., 2010] collects a subset of ARM observations, performs quality control checks, averages them to one hour temporal resolution, and puts them in a standard format for ease of use by climate modelers. ARMBE has been widely used by the climate modeling community as a summary product of many of the ARM observations. However, the ARMBE product does not include uncertainty estimates on the data values. Thus, to meet the objectives of the CSSEF project and enable better use of this data with UQ techniques, we created the CSSEFARMBE data set. Only a subset of the variables contained in ARMBE is included in CSSEFARMBE. Currently only surface meteorological observations are included, though this may be expanded to include other variables in the future. The CSSEFARMBE VAP is produced for all extended facilities at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site that contain surface meteorological equipment. This extension of the ARMBE data set to multiple facilities at SGP allows for better comparison between model grid boxes and the ARM point observations. In the future, CSSEFARMBE may also be created for other ARM sites. As

  6. Weather Prediction Improvement Using Advanced Satellite Technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Einaudi, Franco; Uccellini, L.; Purdom, J.; Rogers, D.; Gelaro, R.; Dodge, J.; Atlas, R.; Lord, S.

    2001-01-01

    We discuss in this paper some of the problems that exist today in the fall utilization of satellite data to improve weather forecasts and we propose specific recommendations to solve them. This discussion can be viewed as an aspect of the general debate on how best to organize the transition from research to operational satellites and how to evaluate the impact of a research instrument on numerical weather predictions. A method for providing this transition is offered by the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP). This mission will bridge the time between the present NOAA and Department of Defense (DOD) polar orbiting missions and the initiation of the converged NPOESS series and will evaluate some of the Earth Observing System (EOS) instruments as appropriate for operational missions. Thus, this mission can be viewed as an effort to meet the operational requirements of NOAA and DOD and the research requirements of NASA. More generally, however, it can be said that the process of going from the conception of new, more advanced instruments to their operational implementation and full utilization by the weather forecast communities is not optimal. Instruments developed for research purposes may have insufficient funding to explore their potential operational capabilities. Furthermore, instrument development programs designed for operational satellites typically have insufficient funding for assimilation algorithms needed to transform the satellite observations into data that can be used by sophisticated global weather forecast models. As a result, years often go by before satellite data are efficiently used for operational forecasts. NASA and NOAA each have unique expertise in the design of satellite instruments, their use for basic and applied research and their utilization in weather and climate research. At a time of limited resources, the two agencies must combine their efforts to work toward common

  7. Improved methodology for temperature predictions in advanced reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Ambrosek, R.G.; Chang, G.S.

    1995-10-01

    Advanced nuclear reactors maximize power and/or flux levels for increased performance levels. One of the challenges is accurate prediction of temperatures in the structural components and experiments. An improved methodology utilizing the computer codes MCNP and ABAQUS has been demonstrated in instrumented experiments at the Advanced Test Reactor. The analytical predictions have shown excellent agreement with the measured results.

  8. Recent Advances in Predictive (Machine) Learning

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, J

    2004-01-24

    Prediction involves estimating the unknown value of an attribute of a system under study given the values of other measured attributes. In prediction (machine) learning the prediction rule is derived from data consisting of previously solved cases. Most methods for predictive learning were originated many years ago at the dawn of the computer age. Recently two new techniques have emerged that have revitalized the field. These are support vector machines and boosted decision trees. This paper provides an introduction to these two new methods tracing their respective ancestral roots to standard kernel methods and ordinary decision trees.

  9. Advanced technology wind shear prediction system evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gering, Greg

    1992-01-01

    The program overviews: (1) American Airline (AA)/Turbulence Prediction Systems (TPS), which have installed forward looking infrared predictive windshear system on 3 MD-80 aircraft; (2) AA/TPS AWAS III evaluation, which is a joint effort and is installed in the noise landing gear (NLG) area and a data recorder installed in the E/E compartment.

  10. Radiatively Important Parameters Best Estimate (RIPBE): An ARM Value-Added Product

    SciTech Connect

    McFarlane, S; Shippert, T; Mather, J

    2011-06-30

    The Radiatively Important Parameters Best Estimate (RIPBE) VAP was developed to create a complete set of clearly identified set of parameters on a uniform vertical and temporal grid to use as input to a radiative transfer model. One of the main drivers for RIPBE was as input to the Broadband Heating Rate Profile (BBHRP) VAP, but we also envision using RIPBE files for user-run radiative transfer codes, as part of cloud/aerosol retrieval testbeds, and as input to averaged datastreams for model evaluation.

  11. Predicting success on the Advanced Placement Biology Examination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shepherd, Lesa Hanlin

    Four hundred sixty students in four public high schools were used as subjects to determine which of eleven academic and demographic factors studied were significant predictors of success for the Advanced Placement Biology Examination. Factors studied were attendance, class rank, gender, grade level at the time of the examination, grade point average, level of prerequisite biology course, number of Advanced Placement Examinations taken in the year prior to the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, number of Advanced Placement Examinations taken in the same year as the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, proposed major in college, race, and SAT mathematics, verbal, and combined score. Significant relationships were found to exist between the Advanced Placement Biology Examination score and attendance, class rank, gender, grade level at the time of the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, grade point average, number of Advanced Placement Examinations taken in the year prior to the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, number of Advanced Placement Examinations taken in the same year as the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, race, and SAT scores. Significant relationships were not found to exist between Advanced Placement Biology Examination score and level prerequisite biology course and Advanced Placement Biology Examination score and proposed major in college. A multiple regression showed the best combination of predictors to be attendance, SAT verbal score, and SAT mathematics score. Discriminant analysis showed the variables in this study to be good predictors of whether the student would pass the Advanced Placement Biology Examination (score a 3, 4, or 5) or fail the Advanced Placement Biology Examination (score a 1 or 2). These results demonstrated that significant predictors for the Advanced Placement Biology Examination do exist and can be used to assist in the prediction of scores, prediction of passing or failing, the identification of

  12. Predictable nonlinear dynamics: Advances and limitations

    SciTech Connect

    Anosov, L.A.; Butkovskii, O.Y.; Kravtsov, Y.A.; Surovyatkina, E.D.

    1996-06-01

    Methods for reconstruction chaotic dynamical system structure directly from experimental time series are described. Effectiveness of general methods is illustrated with the results of numerical simulation. It is of common interest that from the single time series it is possible to reconstruct a set of interconnected variables. Predictive power of dynamical models, provided by the nonlinear dynamics inverse problem solution, is limited firstly by the noise level in the system under study and is characterized by the horizon of predictability. New physical results are presented, concerning nonstationary and bifurcation nonlinear systems: (1) algorithms for revealing of nonstationarity in random-like chaotic time-series are suggested based on discriminant analysis with nonlinear discriminant function; (2) an opportunity is established to predict the final state in bifurcation system with quickly varying control parameters; (3) hysteresis is founded out in bifurcation system with quickly varying parameters; (4) delayed correlation {l_angle}noise-prediction error{r_angle} in chaotic systems is revealed. {copyright} {ital 1996 American Institute of Physics.}

  13. Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bao, Han P.; Samareh, J. A.; Weston, R. P.

    2002-01-01

    For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This paper outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are soared according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this paper is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool.

  14. Best Estimate Code System to Calculate Thermal & Hydraulic Phenomena in a Nuclear Reactor or Related System.

    1999-05-19

    Version 00 RELAP4/MOD7/101 performs best estimate analyses of nuclear reactors or related systems undergoing a transient. Transient thermal-hydraulic, two-phase phenomena are calculated from formulations of one-dimensional, homogeneous, equilibrium conservation equations for water mass, momentum, and energy. Heat structures are modeled using a transient one-dimensional heat conduction solution that is coupled to the fluid through heat transfer relations. Various explicit models are used to calculate nonhomogeneous, nonequilibrium behavior including a phase separation model, a vertical slipmore » model, and a nonequilibrium model. Other models are used to represent critical flow, reactor kinetics, pressurized water reactor reflood behavior, nuclear fuel rod swelling and blockage, and components such as pumps, valves, and accumulators.« less

  15. Code System for Best-Estimate Analysis of LOCA in BWR.

    2001-07-23

    Version 00 TRAC-BD1 performs best estimate analyses of loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA) and other transients in boiling water reactors (BWRs). The program provides LOCA analysis capability for BWRs and for many BWR-related thermal-hydraulic experimental facilities. The program features a three-dimensional treatment of the BWR pressure vessel, a detailed model of a BWR fuel bundle including multi-rod, multi-bundle, radiation heat transfer, and leakage path modeling capability; flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment; reflood tracking capability both for falling filmsmore » and bottom flood quench fronts; and consistent treatment of the entire accident sequence. Dump/restart capabilities are also provided.« less

  16. Radiatively important parameters best estimate (RIPBE) value-added product (VAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Shippert,T.; Jensen,M.; McFarlane, S.; Mather, J.; Flynn, C.; Mlawer, E.; Delamere, J.; Oreopoulos, L.; Turner, D.; Xie, S.

    2010-03-15

    Currently, to calculate radiative heating rate profiles for the Broadband Heating Rate Profile (BBHRP) product, radiatively important parameters (water vapor, ozone, surface albedo, aerosol properties, and cloud properties) from multiple VAPs and datastreams are combined into input text files that are then used to run the RRTM radiative transfer codes. These input parameters have different temporal and spatial scales and are difficult to extract from the text files to be used for other purposes such as running other radiative transfer codes, analyzing results, or error tracking. The purpose of the Radiatively Important Parameters Best Estimate (RIPBE) VAP is to improve this process by creating a clearly identified set of inputs for BBHRP (and other radiation codes) on a uniform vertical and temporal grid. This process will decouple the input/output portion of the BBHRP from the core physics (the RRTM radiative transfer model) and will add error tracking and version information to the input data set. Critical parameters (which must exist for the radiation code to be run) will be designated; for other parameters, climatological or fixed values will be used when the preferred values are missing. This should increase the number of cases for which radiative transfer calculations can be run. In all cases, flags will clearly identify the source for each parameter. RIPBE will serve multiple functions: (1) it will provide a clearly identifiable set of inputs for BBHRP, (2) it will facilitate the use of BBHRP as a retrieval and radiation code development testbed by providing a vehicle for easily extracting and swapping input parameters needed to conduct radiative transfer calculations, and (3) it will be a complement to the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) VAP and will provide a significantly expanded set of parameters for model evaluation in a showcase data set form. At the ASR meeting, we will present examples and evaluation of the initial RIPBE dataset at SGP.

  17. Predicting Malignancy in Thyroid Nodules: Molecular Advances

    PubMed Central

    Melck, Adrienne L.; Yip, Linwah

    2016-01-01

    Over the last several years, a clearer understanding of the genetic alterations underlying thyroid carcinogenesis has developed. This knowledge can be utilized to tackle one of the greatest challenges facing thyroidologists: management of the indeterminate thyroid nodule. Despite the accuracy of fine needle aspiration cytology, many patients undergo invasive surgery in order to determine if a follicular or Hurthle cell neoplasm is malignant, and better diagnostic tools are required. A number of biomarkers have recently been studied and show promise in this setting. In particular, BRAF, RAS, PAX8-PPARγ, microRNAs and loss of heterozygosity have each been demonstrated as useful molecular tools for predicting malignancy and can thereby guide decisions regarding surgical management of nodular thyroid disease. This review summarizes the current literature surrounding each of these markers and highlights our institution’s prospective analysis of these markers and their subsequent incorporation into our management algorithms for thyroid nodules. PMID:21818817

  18. A Primer In Advanced Fatigue Life Prediction Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.

    2000-01-01

    Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelop is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelop as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

  19. Raman Lidar Profiles Best Estimate Value-Added Product Technical Report

    SciTech Connect

    Newson, R

    2012-01-18

    The ARM Raman lidars are semi-autonomous ground-based systems that transmit at a wavelength of 355 nm with 300 mJ, {approx}5 ns pulses, and a pulse repetition frequency of 30Hz. Signals from the various detection channels are processed to produce time- and height-resolved estimates of several geophysical quantities, such as water vapor mixing ratio, relative humidity, aerosol scattering ratio, backscatter, optical depth, extinction, and depolarization ratio. Data processing is currently handled by a suite of six value-added product (VAP) processes. Collectively, these processes are known as the Raman Lidar Profiles VAP (RLPROF). The top-level best-estimate (BE) VAP process was introduced in order to bring together the most relevant information from the intermediate-level VAPs. As such, the BE process represents the final stage in data processing for the Raman lidar. Its principal function is to extract the primary variables from each of the intermediate-level VAPs, perform additional quality control, and combine all of this information into a single output file for the end-user. The focus of this document is to describe the processing performed by the BE VAP process.

  20. Scalable three-dimensional thermal-hydraulic best-estimate code BAGIRA

    SciTech Connect

    Vasenin, V. A.; Krivchikov, M. A.; Kroshilin, V. E.; Kroshilin, A. E.; Roganov, V. A.

    2012-07-01

    The three-dimensional thermal-hydraulic best-estimate code BAGIRA for modeling of multi-phase flows was developed without any artificial physical assumptions or simplifications. The mathematical model is based on numerical approximations of exact three-dimensional equations, including effective multi-dimensional models for turbulent heat and mass transfer. With use of BAGIRA All-Russian Scientific Research Inst. of Nuclear Power Plants (VNIIAES) has developed a full-scope and analytical simulators using BAGIRA for a number of power plants with VVER-1000 and RBMK type design, which are being used in Kalinin, Kursk, Smolensk, Chernobyl, and Bilibino NPPs. The comparison of calculated and experimental results shows that BAGIRA can successfully reproduce the most important processes observed in experiments. BAGIRA is implemented in FORTRAN. It is a relatively complicated code that tends to decompose task by aspects. Such a style is welcoming for extensions, which can be added without code redesign. We would like to present an aspect-oriented mix-in approach for BAGIRA code extension. It allows to make it scalable in number of directions leaving original code base untouched. It is possible to add new effects/units, and even to produce a supercomputer version of the code. The last is a key point today due to availability of low-cost compact supercomputers, which makes building compact NPP simulators possible. (authors)

  1. Orion Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) Best Estimated Trajectory Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holt, Greg N.; Brown, Aaron

    2016-01-01

    The Orion Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) mission successfully flew on Dec 5, 2014 atop a Delta IV Heavy launch vehicle. The goal of Orions maiden flight was to stress the system by placing an uncrewed vehicle on a high-energy trajectory replicating conditions similar to those that would be experienced when returning from an asteroid or a lunar mission. The Orion navigation team combined all trajectory data from the mission into a Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) product. There were significant challenges in data reconstruction and many lessons were learned for future missions. The team used an estimation filter incorporating radar tracking, onboard sensors (Global Positioning System and Inertial Measurement Unit), and day-of-flight weather balloons to evaluate the true trajectory flown by Orion. Data was published for the entire Orion EFT-1 flight, plus objects jettisoned during entry such as the Forward Bay Cover. The BET customers include approximately 20 disciplines within Orion who will use the information for evaluating vehicle performance and influencing future design decisions.

  2. Peach Bottom 2 Turbine Trip Simulation Using TRAC-BF1/COS3D, a Best-Estimate Coupled 3-D Core and Thermal-Hydraulic Code System

    SciTech Connect

    Ui, Atsushi; Miyaji, Takamasa

    2004-10-15

    The best-estimate coupled three-dimensional (3-D) core and thermal-hydraulic code system TRAC-BF1/COS3D has been developed. COS3D, based on a modified one-group neutronic model, is a 3-D core simulator used for licensing analyses and core management of commercial boiling water reactor (BWR) plants in Japan. TRAC-BF1 is a plant simulator based on a two-fluid model. TRAC-BF1/COS3D is a coupled system of both codes, which are connected using a parallel computing tool. This code system was applied to the OECD/NRC BWR Turbine Trip Benchmark. Since the two-group cross-section tables are provided by the benchmark team, COS3D was modified to apply to this specification. Three best-estimate scenarios and four hypothetical scenarios were calculated using this code system. In the best-estimate scenario, the predicted core power with TRAC-BF1/COS3D is slightly underestimated compared with the measured data. The reason seems to be a slight difference in the core boundary conditions, that is, pressure changes and the core inlet flow distribution, because the peak in this analysis is sensitive to them. However, the results of this benchmark analysis show that TRAC-BF1/COS3D gives good precision for the prediction of the actual BWR transient behavior on the whole. Furthermore, the results with the modified one-group model and the two-group model were compared to verify the application of the modified one-group model to this benchmark. This comparison shows that the results of the modified one-group model are appropriate and sufficiently precise.

  3. Advanced propeller noise prediction in the time domain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farassat, F.; Dunn, M. H.; Spence, P. L.

    1992-01-01

    The time domain code ASSPIN gives acousticians a powerful technique of advanced propeller noise prediction. Except for nonlinear effects, the code uses exact solutions of the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equation with exact blade geometry and kinematics. By including nonaxial inflow, periodic loading noise, and adaptive time steps to accelerate computer execution, the development of this code becomes complete.

  4. Predictive Biomarkers to Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Conde-Muíño, Raquel; Cuadros, Marta; Zambudio, Natalia; Segura-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Cano, Carlos; Palma, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    There has been a high local recurrence rate in rectal cancer. Besides improvements in surgical techniques, both neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and long-course chemoradiation improve oncological results. Approximately 40-60% of rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation achieve some degree of pathologic response. However, there is no effective method of predicting which patients will respond to neoadjuvant treatment. Recent studies have evaluated the potential of genetic biomarkers to predict outcome in locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation. The articles produced by the PubMed search were reviewed for those specifically addressing a genetic profile's ability to predict response to neoadjuvant treatment in rectal cancer. Although tissue gene microarray profiling has led to promising data in cancer, to date, none of the identified signatures or molecular markers in locally advanced rectal cancer has been successfully validated as a diagnostic or prognostic tool applicable to routine clinical practice. PMID:26504848

  5. Predictive Biomarkers to Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Conde-Muíño, Raquel; Cuadros, Marta; Zambudio, Natalia; Segura-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Cano, Carlos; Palma, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    There has been a high local recurrence rate in rectal cancer. Besides improvements in surgical techniques, both neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and long-course chemoradiation improve oncological results. Approximately 40–60% of rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation achieve some degree of pathologic response. However, there is no effective method of predicting which patients will respond to neoadjuvant treatment. Recent studies have evaluated the potential of genetic biomarkers to predict outcome in locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation. The articles produced by the PubMed search were reviewed for those specifically addressing a genetic profile's ability to predict response to neoadjuvant treatment in rectal cancer. Although tissue gene microarray profiling has led to promising data in cancer, to date, none of the identified signatures or molecular markers in locally advanced rectal cancer has been successfully validated as a diagnostic or prognostic tool applicable to routine clinical practice. PMID:26504848

  6. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data, A New Data Product for Climate Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, Shaocheng; McCoy, Renata B.; Klein, Stephen A.; Cederwall, Richard T.; Wiscombe, Warren J.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Gaustad, Krista L.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Shamblin, Stefanie H; Jensen, Michael P.; Johnson, Karen L.; Lin, Yanluan; Long, Charles N.; Mather, James H.; McCord, Raymond A; McFarlane, Sally A.; Palanisamy, Giri; Shi, Yan; Turner, David D.

    2010-01-01

    can hamper the use of ACRF data by the climate community. To make ACRF data better serve the needs of climate studies and model development, ARM has developed a data product specifically tailored for use by the climate community. The new data product, named the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) dataset, assembles those quantities that are both well observed by ACRF over many years and are often used in model evaluation into one single dataset. The CMBE product consists of hourly averages and thus has temporal resolution comparable to a typical resolution used in climate model output. It also includes standard deviations within the averaged hour and quality control flags for the selected quantities to indicate the temporal variability and data quality. Since its initial release in February 2008, the new data product has quickly drawn the attention of the climate modeling community. It is being used for model evaluation by two major U.S. climate modeling centers, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of CMBE data and a few examples that demonstrate the potential value of CMBE data for climate modeling and in studies of cloud processes and climate variability and change.

  7. Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Rong; Duan, Wansuo; Mu, Mu

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, we explored potential observing locations (i.e., the sensitive areas) of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events to advance beyond the winter predictability barrier (WPB) using the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory climate model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1). The sensitivity analysis is conducted through perfect model predictability experiments, in which the model is assumed to be perfect and so any prediction errors are caused by initial errors. The results show that the initial errors with an east-west dipole pattern are more likely to result in a significant WPB than spatially correlated noises; the areas where the large values of the dipole pattern initial errors are located have great effects on prediction uncertainties in winter and provide useful information regarding the sensitive areas. Further, the prediction uncertainties in winter are more sensitive to the initial errors in the subsurface large value areas than to those in the surface large value areas. The results indicate that the subsurface large value areas are sensitive areas for advancing beyond the WPB of IOD predictions and if we carry out intensive observations across these areas, the prediction errors in winter may be largely reduced. This will lead to large improvements in the skill of wintertime IOD event forecasts.

  8. Best Estimate Method vs Evaluation Method: a comparison of two techniques in evaluating seismic analysis and design

    SciTech Connect

    Bumpus, S.E.; Johnson, J.J.; Smith, P.D.

    1980-05-01

    The concept of how two techniques, Best Estimate Method and Evaluation Method, may be applied to the traditional seismic analysis and design of a nuclear power plant is introduced. Only the four links of the seismic analysis and design methodology chain (SMC) - seismic input, soil-structure interaction, major structural response, and subsystem response - are considered. The objective is to evaluate the compounding of conservatisms in the seismic analysis and design of nuclear power plants, to provide guidance for judgments in the SMC, and to concentrate the evaluation on that part of the seismic analysis and design which is familiar to the engineering community. An example applies the effects of three-dimensional excitations on a model of a nuclear power plant structure. The example demonstrates how conservatisms accrue by coupling two links in the SMC and comparing those results to the effects of one link alone. The utility of employing the Best Estimate Method vs the Evaluation Method is also demonstrated.

  9. Predicting binary merger event rates for advanced LIGO/Virgo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holz, Daniel; Belczynski, Chris; O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Bulik, Tomek; LIGO Collaboration

    2016-03-01

    We discuss estimates of the rates of mergers of binary systems composed of neutron stars and/or stellar mass black holes. We use the StarTrack population synthesis code, and make predictions for the detection rate of compact binary coalescences with the advanced LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave detectors. Because these instruments are sensitive to massive (M > 20M⊙) stellar-mass binary black holes mergers out to high redshift (z > 1), we discuss the cosmological effects which must be taken into account when calculating LIGO detection rates, including a generalization of the calculation of the ``peanut factor'' and the sensitive time-volume.

  10. Final STS-11 (41-B) best estimate trajectory products: Development and results from the first Cape landing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, G. M.; Mcconnell, J. G.; Findlay, J. T.; Heck, M. L.; Henry, M. W.

    1984-01-01

    The STS-11 (41-B) postflight data processing is completed and the results published. The final reconstructed entry trajectory is presented. The various atmospheric sources available for this flight are discussed. Aerodynamic Best Estimate of Trajectory BET generation and plots from this file are presented. A definition of the major maneuvers effected is given. Physical constants, including spacecraft mass properties; final residuals from the reconstruction process; trajectory parameter listings; and an archival section are included.

  11. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents recent thermal model results of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG). The three-dimensional (3D) ASRG thermal power model was built using the Thermal Desktop(trademark) thermal analyzer. The model was correlated with ASRG engineering unit test data and ASRG flight unit predictions from Lockheed Martin's (LM's) I-deas(trademark) TMG thermal model. The auxiliary cooling system (ACS) of the ASRG is also included in the ASRG thermal model. The ACS is designed to remove waste heat from the ASRG so that it can be used to heat spacecraft components. The performance of the ACS is reported under nominal conditions and during a Venus flyby scenario. The results for the nominal case are validated with data from Lockheed Martin. Transient thermal analysis results of ASRG for a Venus flyby with a representative trajectory are also presented. In addition, model results of an ASRG mounted on a Cassini-like spacecraft with a sunshade are presented to show a way to mitigate the high temperatures of a Venus flyby. It was predicted that the sunshade can lower the temperature of the ASRG alternator by 20 C for the representative Venus flyby trajectory. The 3D model also was modified to predict generator performance after a single Advanced Stirling Convertor failure. The geometry of the Microtherm HT insulation block on the outboard side was modified to match deformation and shrinkage observed during testing of a prototypic ASRG test fixture by LM. Test conditions and test data were used to correlate the model by adjusting the thermal conductivity of the deformed insulation to match the post-heat-dump steady state temperatures. Results for these conditions showed that the performance of the still-functioning inboard ACS was unaffected.

  12. A Global and Regional Multi-scale Advanced Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, D.; Xue, J.; Yang, X.; Zhang, H.; Liu, J.; Jin, Z.; Huang, L.; Wu, X.

    With social progress and economic development, the requirement for providing much longer, more detailed and more accurate meteorological forecasting services with higher resolution, including climate, synoptic and meso-scale weather forecasts, and air pollution as well as forest fire warning is increased significantly. On the other hand, to meet all needs of services, the numerical weather prediction models will be- come more and more complicated, and more and more ?huge?. The costs for improve- ment and maintenance will be expensive if several NWP systems are to be developed, improved and maintained at the same time and at the same center! In this paper, a Global and Regional multi-scale Advanced Prediction model System (GRAPS) was designed to meet all needs of short, medium and long range weather forecasts as well as environmental predictions. The main features of the GRAPS model include (1) full latitude-longitude grid points; (2) multi-scale in an unified model; (3) hydrostatic or non hydrostatic hypotheses optionally(4) variable or uniform resolution in option (5) possibility to run in regional or global mode(6) finite difference in the vertical dis- cretization in option (7) semi-implicit and semi-Lagrangian scheme; (8) height terrain- following coordinate; (9) Arakawa-C variable staggering; (10) Cascade-interpolation; (11) quasi-conservation of semi-Lagrangian advection scheme combined Staniforth (1992) and Preistley (1993).

  13. The Italian experience on T/H best estimate codes: Achievements and perspectives

    SciTech Connect

    Alemberti, A.; D`Auria, F.; Fiorino, E.

    1997-07-01

    Themalhydraulic system codes are complex tools developed to simulate the power plants behavior during off-normal conditions. Among the objectives of the code calculations the evaluation of safety margins, the operator training, the optimization of the plant design and of the emergency operating procedures, are mostly considered in the field of the nuclear safety. The first generation of codes was developed in the United States at the end of `60s. Since that time, different research groups all over the world started the development of their own codes. At the beginning of the `80s, the second generation codes were proposed; these differ from the first generation codes owing to the number of balance equations solved (six instead of three), the sophistication of the constitutive models and of the adopted numerics. The capabilities of available computers have been fully exploited during the years. The authors then summarize some of the major steps in the process of developing, modifying, and advancing the capabilities of the codes. They touch on the fact that Italian, and for that matter non-American, researchers have not been intimately involved in much of this work. They then describe the application of these codes in Italy, even though there are no operating or under construction nuclear power plants at this time. Much of this effort is directed at the general question of plant safety in the face of transient type events.

  14. Prediction of Corrosion of Advanced Materials and Fabricated Components

    SciTech Connect

    A. Anderko; G. Engelhardt; M.M. Lencka; M.A. Jakab; G. Tormoen; N. Sridhar

    2007-09-29

    The goal of this project is to provide materials engineers, chemical engineers and plant operators with a software tool that will enable them to predict localized corrosion of process equipment including fabricated components as well as base alloys. For design and revamp purposes, the software predicts the occurrence of localized corrosion as a function of environment chemistry and assists the user in selecting the optimum alloy for a given environment. For the operation of existing plants, the software enables the users to predict the remaining life of equipment and help in scheduling maintenance activities. This project combined fundamental understanding of mechanisms of corrosion with focused experimental results to predict the corrosion of advanced, base or fabricated, alloys in real-world environments encountered in the chemical industry. At the heart of this approach is the development of models that predict the fundamental parameters that control the occurrence of localized corrosion as a function of environmental conditions and alloy composition. The fundamental parameters that dictate the occurrence of localized corrosion are the corrosion and repassivation potentials. The program team, OLI Systems and Southwest Research Institute, has developed theoretical models for these parameters. These theoretical models have been applied to predict the occurrence of localized corrosion of base materials and heat-treated components in a variety of environments containing aggressive and non-aggressive species. As a result of this project, a comprehensive model has been established and extensively verified for predicting the occurrence of localized corrosion as a function of environment chemistry and temperature by calculating the corrosion and repassivation potentials.To support and calibrate the model, an experimental database has been developed to elucidate (1) the effects of various inhibiting species as well as aggressive species on localized corrosion of nickel

  15. Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Post-Flight Navigation Performance Assessment Relative to the Best Estimated Trajectory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gay, Robert S.; Holt, Greg N.; Zanetti, Renato

    2016-01-01

    This paper details the post-flight navigation performance assessment of the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1). Results of each flight phase are presented: Ground Align, Ascent, Orbit, and Entry Descent and Landing. This study examines the on-board Kalman Filter uncertainty along with state deviations relative to the Best Estimated Trajectory (BET). Overall the results show that the Orion Navigation System performed as well or better than expected. Specifically, the Global Positioning System (GPS) measurement availability was significantly better than anticipated at high altitudes. In addition, attitude estimation via processing GPS measurements along with Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data performed very well and maintained good attitude throughout the mission.

  16. Best estimate method versus evaluation method: a comparison of two techniques in evaluating seismic analysis and design. Technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Bumpus, S.E.; Johnson, J.J.; Smith, P.D.

    1980-07-01

    The concept of how two techniques, Best Estimate Method and Evaluation Method, may be applied to the tradditional seismic analysis and design of a nuclear power plant is introduced. Only the four links of the seismic analysis and design methodology chain (SMC)--seismic input, soil-structure interaction, major structural response, and subsystem response--are considered. The objective is to evaluate the compounding of conservatisms in the seismic analysis and design of nuclear power plants, to provide guidance for judgments in the SMC, and to concentrate the evaluation on that part of the seismic analysis and design which is familiar to the engineering community. An example applies the effects of three-dimensional excitations on the model of a nuclear power plant structure. The example demonstrates how conservatisms accrue by coupling two links in the SMC and comparing those results to the effects of one link alone. The utility of employing the Best Estimate Method vs the Evauation Method is also demonstrated.

  17. Prediction of concurrent chemoradiotherapy outcome in advanced oropharyngeal cancer

    PubMed Central

    HASEGAWA, MASAHIRO; MAEDA, HIROYUKI; DENG, ZEYI; KIYUNA, ASANORI; GANAHA, AKIRA; YAMASHITA, YUKASHI; MATAYOSHI, SEN; AGENA, SHINYA; TOITA, TAKAFUMI; UEHARA, TAKAYUKI; SUZUKI, MIKIO

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate human papillomavirus (HPV) infection as a predictor of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) response and indicator of planned neck dissection (PND) for patients with advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC; stage III/IV). Overall, 39 OPSCC patients (32 men, 7 women; median age 61 years, range 39–79 years) were enrolled. The primary lesion and whole neck were irradiated up to 50.4 Gy, and subsequently the primary site and metastatic lymph nodes were boosted with a further 16.2 Gy. Although several chemotherapy regimens were employed, 82.1% of OPSCC patients received the combination of nedaplatin and 5-fluorouracil. HPV-related OPSCC (16 cases) was defined as both HPV DNA-positive status by polymerase chain reaction and p16INK4a overexpression by immunohistochemistry. Patients with N2 and N3 disease received PND 2–3 months after CCRT completion. Compared to non-responders, CCRT responders showed significantly lower nodal stage (N0 to N2b) and HPV-positive status in univariate analysis. Patients with HPV-related OPSCC had longer time to treatment failure (TTF) than those with HPV-unrelated OPSCC (p=0.040). Three-year TTF was 81.3 and 47.8% in the HPV-related and HPV-unrelated groups, respectively. There were also significant differences in disease-free survival (DFS) between the two OPSCC patient groups (p=0.042). Three-year DFS was 93.8 and 66.7% in patients with HPV-related and HPV-unrelated OPSCC, respectively. Multivariate logistic analysis showed a lower risk of TTF event occurrence in HPV-related OPSCC (p=0.041) than in HPV-unrelated OPSCC. Thus, HPV testing in addition to nodal stage was useful for predicting CCRT response, especially in advanced OPSCC. Because patients who received PND showed moderate locoregional control, PND is an effective surgical procedure for controlling neck lesions in patients with advanced HPV-unrelated disease. PMID:24969413

  18. Cancer Pharmacogenomics: Integrating Discoveries in Basic, Clinical and Population Sciences to Advance Predictive Cancer Care

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer Pharmacogenomics: Integrating Discoveries in Basic, Clinical and Population Sciences to Advance Predictive Cancer Care, a 2010 workshop sponsored by the Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program.

  19. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 1, Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Cuccio, J.C.; Brehm, P.; Fang, H.T.

    1995-03-01

    Emphasis of this program is to develop and demonstrate ceramics life prediction methods, including fast fracture, stress rupture, creep, oxidation, and nondestructive evaluation. Significant advancements were made in these methods and their predictive capabilities successfully demonstrated.

  20. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) Science Infusion Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaake, J.; Smith, G.; Carter, G.

    2002-05-01

    NWS is implementing an Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) Science initiative to meet NWS Vision 2005 goals and related hydrologic services requirements, including the goal of being a world leader using state of the art forecast science and technology. AHPS includes a science infusion strategy to meet the following objectives: extend forecast lead time, improve forecast accuracy, and provide better information for user decisions. AHPS will meet these goals by implementing hydrologic forecast models tuned to local conditions and operated to account for uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts. AHPS will use ensemble weather and climate forecasts of precipitation and other conditions, such as air temperature, that affect the forecasts. This ensemble approach to weather, climate and water forecasting will provide a probabilistic basis for AHPS forecast products. Meeting AHPS goals and objectives requires an infusion of new science into the existing forecast system. Three AHPS requirements for science infusion are: 1. Quantify the uncertainty of river forecasts and provide users with a clear view of future hydrologic conditions together with hard evidence that AHPS products are based on valid forecast probability information; 2. Reduce the space and time scale, improve the accuracy, and extend the lead time of hydrologic forecasts. Demonstrate that new improvements to hydrologic forecast procedures add value to the forecasts and meet user requirements; 3. Improve the ability of forecasters to use the tools provided by integrating these into an efficient operational forecast system that includes automatic techniques for data quality control, access to data, model calibration, data assimilation, processing of ensemble forecasts, verification of forecasts and monitoring of all stages of the forecast process.

  1. 76 FR 52954 - Workshop: Advancing Research on Mixtures; New Perspectives and Approaches for Predicting Adverse...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-24

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Workshop: Advancing Research on Mixtures; New Perspectives and Approaches for Predicting... ``Advancing Research on Mixtures: New Perspectives and Approaches for Predicting Adverse Human Health Effects... Research and Training, NIEHS, P.O. Box 12233, MD K3-04, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, (telephone)...

  2. Recent advances in predictability studies in China (1999-2002)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mu, Mu; Wansuo, Duan; Jifan, Chou

    2004-06-01

    Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly (1999), the predictability studies in China have made further progress during the period of 1999-2002. Firstly, three predictability sub-problems in numerical weather and climate prediction are classified, which are concerned with the maximum predictability time, the maximum prediction error, and the maximum allowable initial error, and then they are reduced into three nonlinear optimization problems. Secondly, the concepts of the nonlinear singular vector (NSV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) are proposed, which have been utilized to study the predictability of numerical weather and climate prediction. The results suggest that the nonlinear characteristics of the motions of atmosphere and oceans can be revealed by NSV and CNOP. Thirdly, attention has also been paid to the relations between the predictability and spatial-temporal scale, and between the model predictability and the machine precision, of which the investigations disclose the importance of the spatial-temporal scale and machine precision in the study of predictability. Also the cell-to-cell mapping is adopted to analyze globally the predictability of climate, which could provide a new subject to the research workers. Furthermore, the predictability of the summer rainfall in China is investigated by using the method of correlation coefficients. The results demonstrate that the predictability of summer rainfall is different in different areas of China. Analysis of variance, which is one of the statistical methods applicable to the study of predictability, is also used to study the potential predictability of monthly mean temperature in China, of which the conclusion is that the monthly mean temperature over China is potentially predictable at a statistical significance level of 0.10. In addition, in the analysis of the predictability of the T106 objective analysis/forecasting field, the variance

  3. [Research advance in the drug target prediction based on chemoinformatics].

    PubMed

    Fang, Jian-song; Liu, Ai-lin; Du, Guan-hua

    2014-10-01

    The emerging of network pharmacology and polypharmacology forces the scientists to recognize and explore new mechanisms of existing drugs. The drug target prediction can play a key significance on the elucidation of the molecular mechanism of drugs and drug reposition. In this paper, we systematically review the existing approaches to the prediction of biological targets of small molecule based on chemoinformatics, including ligand-based prediction, receptor-based prediction and data mining-based prediction. We also depict the strength of these methods as well as their applications, and put forward their developing direction. PMID:25577863

  4. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This presentation describes the capabilities of three-dimensional thermal power model of advanced stirling radioisotope generator (ASRG). The performance of the ASRG is presented for different scenario, such as Venus flyby with or without the auxiliary cooling system.

  5. Advances and Computational Tools towards Predictable Design in Biological Engineering

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The design process of complex systems in all the fields of engineering requires a set of quantitatively characterized components and a method to predict the output of systems composed by such elements. This strategy relies on the modularity of the used components or the prediction of their context-dependent behaviour, when parts functioning depends on the specific context. Mathematical models usually support the whole process by guiding the selection of parts and by predicting the output of interconnected systems. Such bottom-up design process cannot be trivially adopted for biological systems engineering, since parts function is hard to predict when components are reused in different contexts. This issue and the intrinsic complexity of living systems limit the capability of synthetic biologists to predict the quantitative behaviour of biological systems. The high potential of synthetic biology strongly depends on the capability of mastering this issue. This review discusses the predictability issues of basic biological parts (promoters, ribosome binding sites, coding sequences, transcriptional terminators, and plasmids) when used to engineer simple and complex gene expression systems in Escherichia coli. A comparison between bottom-up and trial-and-error approaches is performed for all the discussed elements and mathematical models supporting the prediction of parts behaviour are illustrated. PMID:25161694

  6. firestar--advances in the prediction of functionally important residues.

    PubMed

    Lopez, Gonzalo; Maietta, Paolo; Rodriguez, Jose Manuel; Valencia, Alfonso; Tress, Michael L

    2011-07-01

    firestar is a server for predicting catalytic and ligand-binding residues in protein sequences. Here, we present the important developments since the first release of firestar. Previous versions of the server required human interpretation of the results; the server is now fully automatized. firestar has been implemented as a web service and can now be run in high-throughput mode. Prediction coverage has been greatly improved with the extension of the FireDB database and the addition of alignments generated by HHsearch. Ligands in FireDB are now classified for biological relevance. Many of the changes have been motivated by the critical assessment of techniques for protein structure prediction (CASP) ligand-binding prediction experiment, which provided us with a framework to test the performance of firestar. URL: http://firedb.bioinfo.cnio.es/Php/FireStar.php. PMID:21672959

  7. Advanced GIS Exercise: Predicting Rainfall Erosivity Index Using Regression Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Post, Christopher J.; Goddard, Megan A.; Mikhailova, Elena A.; Hall, Steven T.

    2006-01-01

    Graduate students from a variety of agricultural and natural resource fields are incorporating geographic information systems (GIS) analysis into their graduate research, creating a need for teaching methodologies that help students understand advanced GIS topics for use in their own research. Graduate-level GIS exercises help students understand…

  8. Factors that Predict Who Takes Advanced Courses in Cognitive Therapy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pehlivanidis, Artemios

    2007-01-01

    Training in Cognitive Therapy (CT) includes theoretical and didactic components combined with clinical supervision. An introductory course in CT might satisfy training needs in psychotherapy and help in the selection of those trainees who wish to continue to an advanced training level. Predictors of success at such an introductory course have been…

  9. Advances in fatigue life prediction methodology for metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, J. C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model to predict small- and large-crack growth rates, and in some cases total fatigue life, for four aluminum alloys and three titanium alloys under constant-amplitude, variable-amplitude, and spectrum loading are described. Equations to calculate a cyclic-plastic-zone corrected effective stress-intensity factor range from a cyclic J-integral and crack-closure analysis of large cracks were reviewed. The effective stress-intensity factor range against crack growth rate relations were used in the closure model to predict small- and large-crack growth under variable-amplitude and spectrum loading. Using the closure model and microstructural features, a total fatigue life prediction method is demonstrated for three aluminum alloys under various load histories.

  10. Advances in the Assessment and Prediction of Interpersonal Violence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mills, Jeremy F.

    2005-01-01

    This article underscores the weakness of clinical judgment as a mechanism for prediction with examples from other areas in the psychological literature. Clinical judgment has as its Achilles' heel the reliance on a person to incorporate multiple pieces of information while overcoming human judgment errors - a feat insurmountable thus far. The…

  11. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    SciTech Connect

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A.

    1995-10-01

    Most of the studies on the low cycle fatigue life prediction have been reported under isothermal conditions where the deformation of the material is strain dependent. In the development of gas turbines, components such as blades and vanes are exposed to temperature variations in addition to strain cycling. As a result, the deformation process becomes temperature and strain dependent. Therefore, the life of the component becomes sensitive to temperature-strain cycling which produces a process known as {open_quotes}thermomechanical fatigue, or TMF{close_quotes}. The TMF fatigue failure phenomenon has been modeled using conventional fatigue life prediction methods, which are not sufficiently accurate to quantitatively establish an allowable design procedure. To add to the complexity of TMF life prediction, blade and vane substrates are normally coated with aluminide, overlay or thermal barrier type coatings (TBC) where the durability of the component is dominated by the coating/substrate constitutive response and by the fatigue behavior of the coating. A number of issues arise from TMF depending on the type of temperature/strain phase cycle: (1) time-dependent inelastic behavior can significantly affect the stress response. For example, creep relaxation during a tensile or compressive loading at elevated temperatures leads to a progressive increase in the mean stress level under cyclic loading. (2) the mismatch in elastic and thermal expansion properties between the coating and the substrate can lead to significant deviations in the coating stress levels due to changes in the elastic modulii. (3) the {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} corrosion resistance coatings applied to the substrate may act as primary crack initiation sites. Crack initiation in the coating is a function of the coating composition, its mechanical properties, creep relaxation behavior, thermal strain range and the strain/temperature phase relationship.

  12. Modelling Aerodynamically Generated Sound: Recent Advances in Rotor Noise Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brentner, Kenneth S.

    2000-01-01

    A great deal of progress has been made in the modeling of aerodynamically generated sound for rotors over the past decade. The Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H ) equation has been the foundation for much of the development. Both subsonic and supersonic quadrupole noise formulations have been developed for the prediction of high-speed impulsive noise. In an effort to eliminate the need to compute the quadrupole contribution, the FW-H has also been utilized on permeable surfaces surrounding all physical noise sources. Comparison of the Kirchhoff formulation for moving surfaces with the FW-H equation have shown that the Kirchhoff formulation for moving surfaces can give erroneous results for aeroacoustic problems.

  13. Recent advances using rodent models for predicting human allergenicity

    SciTech Connect

    Knippels, Leon M.J. . E-mail: Knippels@voeding.tno.nl; Penninks, Andre H.

    2005-09-01

    The potential allergenicity of newly introduced proteins in genetically engineered foods has become an important safety evaluation issue. However, to evaluate the potential allergenicity and the potency of new proteins in our food, there are still no widely accepted and reliable test systems. The best-known allergy assessment proposal for foods derived from genetically engineered plants was the careful stepwise process presented in the so-called ILSI/IFBC decision tree. A revision of this decision tree strategy was proposed by a FAO/WHO expert consultation. As prediction of the sensitizing potential of the novel introduced protein based on animal testing was considered to be very important, animal models were introduced as one of the new test items, despite the fact that non of the currently studied models has been widely accepted and validated yet. In this paper, recent results are summarized of promising models developed in rat and mouse.

  14. Advanced electric field computation for RF sheaths prediction with TOPICA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milanesio, Daniele; Maggiora, Riccardo

    2012-10-01

    The design of an Ion Cyclotron (IC) launcher is not only driven by its coupling properties, but also by its capability of maintaining low parallel electric fields in front of it, in order to provide good power transfer to plasma and to reduce the impurities production. However, due to the impossibility to verify the antenna performances before the starting of the operations, advanced numerical simulation tools are the only alternative to carry out a proper antenna design. With this in mind, it should be clear that the adoption of a code, such as TOPICA [1], able to precisely take into account a realistic antenna geometry and an accurate plasma description, is extremely important to achieve these goals. Because of the recently introduced features that allow to compute the electric field distribution everywhere inside the antenna enclosure and in the plasma column, the TOPICA code appears to be the only alternative to understand which elements may have a not negligible impact on the antenna design and then to suggest further optimizations in order to mitigate RF potentials. The present work documents the evaluation of the electric field map from actual antennas, like the Tore Supra Q5 and the JET A2 launchers, and the foreseen ITER IC antenna. [4pt] [1] D. Milanesio et al., Nucl. Fusion 49, 115019 (2009).

  15. Investigation of advanced UQ for CRUD prediction with VIPRE.

    SciTech Connect

    Eldred, Michael Scott

    2011-09-01

    This document summarizes the results from a level 3 milestone study within the CASL VUQ effort. It demonstrates the application of 'advanced UQ,' in particular dimension-adaptive p-refinement for polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation. The study calculates statistics for several quantities of interest that are indicators for the formation of CRUD (Chalk River unidentified deposit), which can lead to CIPS (CRUD induced power shift). Stochastic expansion methods are attractive methods for uncertainty quantification due to their fast convergence properties. For smooth functions (i.e., analytic, infinitely-differentiable) in L{sup 2} (i.e., possessing finite variance), exponential convergence rates can be obtained under order refinement for integrated statistical quantities of interest such as mean, variance, and probability. Two stochastic expansion methods are of interest: nonintrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), which computes coefficients for a known basis of multivariate orthogonal polynomials, and stochastic collocation (SC), which forms multivariate interpolation polynomials for known coefficients. Within the DAKOTA project, recent research in stochastic expansion methods has focused on automated polynomial order refinement ('p-refinement') of expansions to support scalability to higher dimensional random input spaces [4, 3]. By preferentially refining only in the most important dimensions of the input space, the applicability of these methods can be extended from O(10{sup 0})-O(10{sup 1}) random variables to O(10{sup 2}) and beyond, depending on the degree of anisotropy (i.e., the extent to which randominput variables have differing degrees of influence on the statistical quantities of interest (QOIs)). Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the application of these adaptive stochastic expansion methods to the analysis of CRUD using the VIPRE simulation tools for two different plant models of differing random dimension, anisotropy, and

  16. Advance prediction of hypotension at cesarean delivery under spinal anesthesia.

    PubMed

    Kinsella, S M; Norris, M C

    1996-01-01

    Cardiovascular responses to supine inferior vena cava compression might predict hypotension risk during elective cesarean delivery using spinal anesthesia. In this pilot study we investigated 27 women before operation by taking blood pressure and heart rate measurements for 5 min in the left lateral position, 5 min supine, and then performed one further reading in the left lateral position and one sitting. Anesthesia with hyperbaric bupivacaine was rigorously standardised. A pre-operative 'supine stress test', combining an increase in maternal heart rate of greater than 10 beats/min or leg flexion movements while supine, was analysed. A positive supine stress test (SST) was 4.1 times more frequent in those with severe systolic hypotension below 70% of baseline (12 out of 16 women) than in those without (2 out of 11 women), with a sensitivity of 75% (95% C.I. 48% to 93%) and specificity of 82% (95% C.I. 48% to 98%). A positive test was associated with twice as much vasopressor use as a negative test (30.7 +/-/14.5 mg versus 13.5 +/-/ 9.9 mg; P = 0.0014). Unlike the SST, cardiovascular responses to the change from recumbent to sitting (tilt test) were not useful as a predictor of hypotension. PMID:15321375

  17. Prediction models for platinum-based chemotherapy response and toxicity in advanced NSCLC patients.

    PubMed

    Yin, Ji-Ye; Li, Xi; Li, Xiang-Ping; Xiao, Ling; Zheng, Wei; Chen, Juan; Mao, Chen-Xue; Fang, Chao; Cui, Jia-Jia; Guo, Cheng-Xian; Zhang, Wei; Gao, Yang; Zhang, Chun-Fang; Chen, Zi-Hua; Zhou, Hui; Zhou, Hong-Hao; Liu, Zhao-Qian

    2016-07-10

    In this study, we aimed to establish a platinum-based chemotherapy response and toxicity prediction model in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. 416 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 185 genes were genotyped, and their association with drug response and toxicity were estimated using logistic regression. Nine data mining techniques were employed to establish the prediction model; the sensitivity, specificity, overall accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to assess the models' performance. Finally, selected models were validated in an independent cohort. The models established by naïve Bayesian algorithm had the best performance. The response prediction model achieved a sensitivity of 0.90 and a specificity of 0.47 with the ROC area under curve (AUC) of 0.80. The overall toxicity prediction model achieved a sensitivity of 0.86 and a specificity of 0.46 with the ROC AUC of 0.73. The hematological toxicity prediction model achieved a sensitivity of 0.89 and a specificity of 0.39 with the ROC AUC of 0.76. The gastrointestinal toxicity prediction model achieved a sensitivity of 0.93 and a specificity of 0.35 with the ROC AUC of 0.80. In conclusion, we provided platinum-based chemotherapy response and toxicity prediction models for advanced NSCLC patients. PMID:27126360

  18. Urinary π-glutathione S-transferase Predicts Advanced Acute Kidney Injury Following Cardiovascular Surgery.

    PubMed

    Shu, Kai-Hsiang; Wang, Chih-Hsien; Wu, Che-Hsiung; Huang, Tao-Min; Wu, Pei-Chen; Lai, Chien-Heng; Tseng, Li-Jung; Tsai, Pi-Ru; Connolly, Rory; Wu, Vin-Cent

    2016-01-01

    Urinary biomarkers augment the diagnosis of acute kidney injury (AKI), with AKI after cardiovascular surgeries being a prototype of prognosis scenario. Glutathione S-transferases (GST) were evaluated as biomarkers of AKI. Urine samples were collected in 141 cardiovascular surgical patients and analyzed for urinary alpha-(α-) and pi-(π-) GSTs. The outcomes of advanced AKI (KDIGO stage 2, 3) and all-cause in-patient mortality, as composite outcome, were recorded. Areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and multivariate generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to predict outcomes. Thirty-eight (26.9%) patients had AKI, while 12 (8.5%) were with advanced AKI. Urinary π-GST differentiated patients with/without advanced AKI or composite outcome after surgery (p < 0.05 by generalized estimating equation). Urinary π-GST predicted advanced AKI at 3 hrs post-surgery (p = 0.033) and composite outcome (p = 0.009), while the corresponding ROC curve had AUC of 0.784 and 0.783. Using GAM, the cutoff value of 14.7 μg/L for π-GST showed the best performance to predict composite outcome. The addition of π-GST to the SOFA score improved risk stratification (total net reclassification index = 0.47). Thus, urinary π-GST levels predict advanced AKI or hospital mortality after cardiovascular surgery and improve in SOFA outcome assessment specific to AKI. PMID:27527370

  19. Urinary π-glutathione S-transferase Predicts Advanced Acute Kidney Injury Following Cardiovascular Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Shu, Kai-Hsiang; Wang, Chih-Hsien; Wu, Che-Hsiung; Huang, Tao-Min; Wu, Pei-Chen; Lai, Chien-Heng; Tseng, Li-Jung; Tsai, Pi-Ru; Connolly, Rory; Wu, Vin-Cent

    2016-01-01

    Urinary biomarkers augment the diagnosis of acute kidney injury (AKI), with AKI after cardiovascular surgeries being a prototype of prognosis scenario. Glutathione S-transferases (GST) were evaluated as biomarkers of AKI. Urine samples were collected in 141 cardiovascular surgical patients and analyzed for urinary alpha-(α-) and pi-(π-) GSTs. The outcomes of advanced AKI (KDIGO stage 2, 3) and all-cause in-patient mortality, as composite outcome, were recorded. Areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and multivariate generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to predict outcomes. Thirty-eight (26.9%) patients had AKI, while 12 (8.5%) were with advanced AKI. Urinary π-GST differentiated patients with/without advanced AKI or composite outcome after surgery (p < 0.05 by generalized estimating equation). Urinary π-GST predicted advanced AKI at 3 hrs post-surgery (p = 0.033) and composite outcome (p = 0.009), while the corresponding ROC curve had AUC of 0.784 and 0.783. Using GAM, the cutoff value of 14.7 μg/L for π-GST showed the best performance to predict composite outcome. The addition of π-GST to the SOFA score improved risk stratification (total net reclassification index = 0.47). Thus, urinary π-GST levels predict advanced AKI or hospital mortality after cardiovascular surgery and improve in SOFA outcome assessment specific to AKI. PMID:27527370

  20. Advancing monthly streamflow prediction accuracy of CART models using ensemble learning paradigms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdal, Halil Ibrahim; Karakurt, Onur

    2013-01-01

    SummaryStreamflow forecasting is one of the most important steps in the water resources planning and management. Ensemble techniques such as bagging, boosting and stacking have gained popularity in hydrological forecasting in the recent years. The study investigates the potential usage of two ensemble learning paradigms (i.e., bagging; stochastic gradient boosting) in building classification and regression trees (CARTs) ensembles to advance the streamflow prediction accuracy. The study, initially, investigates the use of classification and regression trees for monthly streamflow forecasting and employs a support vector regression (SVR) model as the benchmark model. The analytic results indicate that CART outperforms SVR in both training and testing phases. Although the obtained results of CART model in training phase are considerable, it is not in testing phase. Thus, to optimize the prediction accuracy of CART for monthly streamflow forecasting, we incorporate bagging and stochastic gradient boosting which are rooted in same philosophy, advancing the prediction accuracy of weak learners. Comparing with the results of bagged regression trees (BRTs) and stochastic gradient boosted regression trees (GBRTs) models possess satisfactory monthly streamflow forecasting performance than CART and SVR models. Overall, it is found that ensemble learning paradigms can remarkably advance the prediction accuracy of CART models in monthly streamflow forecasting.

  1. Advancing Satellite-Based Flood Prediction in Complex Terrain Using High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Bartsotas, N. S.

    2015-12-01

    Floods constitute one of the most significant and frequent natural hazard in mountainous regions. Satellite-based precipitation products offer in many cases the only available source of QPE. However, satellite-based QPE over complex terrain suffer from significant bias that limits their applicability for hydrologic modeling. In this work we investigate the potential of a new correction procedure, which involves the use of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model simulations to adjust satellite QPE. Adjustment is based on the pdf matching of satellite and NWP (used as reference) precipitation distribution. The impact of correction procedure on simulating the hydrologic response is examined for 15 storm events that generated floods over the mountainous Upper Adige region of Northern Italy. Atmospheric simulations were performed at 1-km resolution from a state-of-the-art atmospheric model (RAMS/ICLAMS). The proposed error correction procedure was then applied on the widely used TRMM 3B42 satellite precipitation product and the evaluation of the correction was based on independent in situ precipitation measurements from a dense rain gauge network (1 gauge / 70 km2) available in the study area. Satellite QPE, before and after correction, are used to simulate flood response using ARFFS (Adige River Flood Forecasting System), a semi-distributed hydrologic model, which is used for operational flood forecasting in the region. Results showed that bias in satellite QPE before correction was significant and had a tremendous impact on the simulation of flood peak, however the correction procedure was able to reduce bias in QPE and therefore improve considerably the simulated flood hydrograph.

  2. Prognostication of Survival in Patients With Advanced Cancer: Predicting the Unpredictable?

    PubMed Central

    Hui, David

    2016-01-01

    Background Prognosis is a key driver of clinical decision-making. However, available prognostication tools have limited accuracy and variable levels of validation. Methods Principles of survival prediction and literature on clinician prediction of survival, prognostic factors, and prognostic models were reviewed, with a focus on patients with advanced cancer and a survival rate of a few months or less. Results The 4 principles of survival prediction are (a) prognostication is a process instead of an event, (b) prognostic factors may evolve over the course of the disease, (c) prognostic accuracy for a given prognostic factor/tool varies by the definition of accuracy, the patient population, and the time frame of prediction, and (d) the exact timing of death cannot be predicted with certainty. Clinician prediction of survival rate is the most commonly used approach to formulate prognosis. However, clinicians often overestimate survival rates with the temporal question. Other clinician prediction of survival approaches, such as surprise and probabilistic questions, have higher rates of accuracy. Established prognostic factors in the advanced cancer setting include decreased performance status, delirium, dysphagia, cancer anorexia–cachexia, dyspnea, inflammation, and malnutrition. Novel prognostic factors, such as phase angle, may improve rates of accuracy. Many prognostic models are available, including the Palliative Prognostic Score, the Palliative Prognostic Index, and the Glasgow Prognostic Score. Conclusions Despite the uncertainty in survival prediction, existing prognostic tools can facilitate clinical decision-making by providing approximated time frames (months, weeks, or days). Future research should focus on clarifying and comparing the rates of accuracy for existing prognostic tools, identifying and validating novel prognostic factors, and linking prognostication to decision-making. PMID:26678976

  3. Development of advanced structural analysis methodologies for predicting widespread fatigue damage in aircraft structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Charles E.; Starnes, James H., Jr.; Newman, James C., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    NASA is developing a 'tool box' that includes a number of advanced structural analysis computer codes which, taken together, represent the comprehensive fracture mechanics capability required to predict the onset of widespread fatigue damage. These structural analysis tools have complementary and specialized capabilities ranging from a finite-element-based stress-analysis code for two- and three-dimensional built-up structures with cracks to a fatigue and fracture analysis code that uses stress-intensity factors and material-property data found in 'look-up' tables or from equations. NASA is conducting critical experiments necessary to verify the predictive capabilities of the codes, and these tests represent a first step in the technology-validation and industry-acceptance processes. NASA has established cooperative programs with aircraft manufacturers to facilitate the comprehensive transfer of this technology by making these advanced structural analysis codes available to industry.

  4. Computational methods in the prediction of advanced subsonic and supersonic propeller induced noise: ASSPIN users' manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunn, M. H.; Tarkenton, G. M.

    1992-01-01

    This document describes the computational aspects of propeller noise prediction in the time domain and the use of high speed propeller noise prediction program ASSPIN (Advanced Subsonic and Supersonic Propeller Induced Noise). These formulations are valid in both the near and far fields. Two formulations are utilized by ASSPIN: (1) one is used for subsonic portions of the propeller blade; and (2) the second is used for transonic and supersonic regions on the blade. Switching between the two formulations is done automatically. ASSPIN incorporates advanced blade geometry and surface pressure modelling, adaptive observer time grid strategies, and contains enhanced numerical algorithms that result in reduced computational time. In addition, the ability to treat the nonaxial inflow case has been included.

  5. An integrated theory for predicting the hydrothermomechanical response of advanced composite structural components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, C. C.; Lark, R. F.; Sinclair, J. H.

    1977-01-01

    A theory is developed for predicting the hydrothermomechanical response of advanced composite structural components. The combined hydrothermal effects on the mechanical properties of unidirectional composites loaded along the material axis and off-axis, and of angleplied laminates are also evaluated. The materials investigated consist of neat PR-288 epoxy matrix resin and an AS-type graphite fiber/PR-288 resin unidirectional composite.

  6. NOAA Drought Task Force: A Coordinated Research Initiative to Advance Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariotti, A.; Barrie, D.

    2014-12-01

    The NOAA's Drought Task Force was first established in October 2011 and renewed in October 2014 with the goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor and predict drought over North America. The Task Force is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in support of the National Integrated Drought Information System NIDIS. The Drought Task Force also represents an important research contribution to efforts to develop an international Global Drought Information System (GDIS). The Drought Task Force brings together leading drought scientists research laboratories and/or operational centers from NOAA, other U.S. agencies laboratories and academia. Their concerted research effort builds on individual MAPP research projects and related drought-research sector developments. The projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those evaluating new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes. This contribution will present an overview of Drought Task Force activities and plans to date, including highlights of research activities and how the group has been working in partnership with NIDIS and synergy with GDIS to advance the science underpinning the development, assessment and provision of drought information.

  7. Advancing the understanding, monitoring and prediction of North American drought in support of NIDIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Pulwarty, Roger

    2014-05-01

    The NOAA's Drought Task Force was established in October 2011 with the goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor and predict drought over North America. The Task Force is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in support of the National Integrated Drought Information System NIDIS. It brings together over thirty-five leading drought scientists research laboratories and/or operational centers from NOAA, other U.S. agencies laboratories and academia. Their concerted research effort builds on individual MAPP research projects and related drought-research sector developments. The projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those evaluating new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes. In this presentation we will show how a coordinated, sustained multidisciplinary effort to assess understanding of both past droughts and emergent events contributes to the effectiveness of early warning systems. This contribution will present an overview of Drought Task Force activities to date, including highlights of research activities and how the group has been working in partnership with NIDIS to advance the science underpinning the development, assessment and provision of drought information.

  8. Measured and predicted rotor performance for the SERI advanced wind turbine blades

    SciTech Connect

    Tangler, J.; Smith, B.; Kelley, N.; Jager, D.

    1992-02-01

    Measured and predicted rotor performance for the SERI advanced wind turbine blades were compared to assess the accuracy of predictions and to identify the sources of error affecting both predictions and measurements. An awareness of these sources of error contributes to improved prediction and measurement methods that will ultimately benefit future rotor design efforts. Propeller/vane anemometers were found to underestimate the wind speed in turbulent environments such as the San Gorgonio Pass wind farm area. Using sonic or cup anemometers, good agreement was achieved between predicted and measured power output for wind speeds up to 8 m/sec. At higher wind speeds an optimistic predicted power output and the occurrence of peak power at wind speeds lower than measurements resulted from the omission of turbulence and yaw error. In addition, accurate two-dimensional (2-D) airfoil data prior to stall and a post stall airfoil data synthesization method that reflects three-dimensional (3-D) effects were found to be essential for accurate performance prediction. 11 refs.

  9. Improved NASA-ANOPP Noise Prediction Computer Code for Advanced Subsonic Propulsion Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kontos, K. B.; Janardan, B. A.; Gliebe, P. R.

    1996-01-01

    Recent experience using ANOPP to predict turbofan engine flyover noise suggests that it over-predicts overall EPNL by a significant amount. An improvement in this prediction method is desired for system optimization and assessment studies of advanced UHB engines. An assessment of the ANOPP fan inlet, fan exhaust, jet, combustor, and turbine noise prediction methods is made using static engine component noise data from the CF6-8OC2, E(3), and QCSEE turbofan engines. It is shown that the ANOPP prediction results are generally higher than the measured GE data, and that the inlet noise prediction method (Heidmann method) is the most significant source of this overprediction. Fan noise spectral comparisons show that improvements to the fan tone, broadband, and combination tone noise models are required to yield results that more closely simulate the GE data. Suggested changes that yield improved fan noise predictions but preserve the Heidmann model structure are identified and described. These changes are based on the sets of engine data mentioned, as well as some CFM56 engine data that was used to expand the combination tone noise database. It should be noted that the recommended changes are based on an analysis of engines that are limited to single stage fans with design tip relative Mach numbers greater than one.

  10. Plastic Instability in Complex Strain Paths Predicted by Advanced Constitutive Equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butuc, Marilena C.; Barlat, Frédéric; Gracio, José J.; Vincze, Gabriela

    2011-08-01

    The present paper aims at predicting plastic instabilities under complex loading histories using an advanced sheet metal forming limit model. The onset of localized necking is computed using the Marciniak-Kuczinsky (MK) analysis [1] with a physically-based hardening model and the phenomenological anisotropic yield criterion Yld2000-2d [2]. The hardening model accounts for anisotropic work-hardening induced by the microstructural evolution at large strains, which was proposed by Teodosiu and Hu [3]. Simulations are carried out for linear and complex strain paths. Experimentally, two deep-drawing quality sheet metals are selected: a bake-hardening steel (BH) and a DC06 steel sheet. The validity of the model is assessed by comparing the predicted and experimental forming limits. The remarkable accuracy of the developed software to predict the forming limits under linear and non-linear strain path is obviously due to the performance of the advanced constitutive equations to describe with great detail the material behavior. The effect of strain-induced anisotropy on formability evolution under strain path changes, as predicted by the microstructural hardening model, is particularly well captured by the model.

  11. Unsteady blade surface pressures on a large-scale advanced propeller - Prediction and data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1990-01-01

    An unsteady three dimensional Euler analysis technique is employed to compute the flowfield of an advanced propeller operating at an angle of attack. The predicted blade pressure waveforms are compared with wind tunnel data at two Mach numbers, 0.5 and 0.2. The inflow angle is three degrees. For an inflow Mach number of 0.5, the predicted pressure response is in fair agreement with data: the predicted phases of the waveforms are in close agreement with data while the magnitudes are underpredicted. At the low Mach number of 0.2 (take-off) the numerical solution shows the formation of a leading edge vortex which is in qualitative agreement with measurements. However, the highly nonlinear pressure response measured on the blade suction surface is not captured in the present inviscid analysis.

  12. Unsteady blade-surface pressures on a large-scale advanced propeller: Prediction and data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1990-01-01

    An unsteady 3-D Euler analysis technique is employed to compute the flow field of an advanced propeller operating at an angle of attack. The predicted blade pressure waveforms are compared with wind tunnel data at two Mach numbers, 0.5 and 0.2. The inflow angle is three degrees. For an inflow Mach number of 0.5, the predicted pressure response is in fair agreement with data: the predicted phases of the waveforms are in close agreement with data while the magnitudes are underpredicted. At the low Mach number of 0.2 (takeoff), the numerical solution shows the formation of a leading edge vortex which is in qualitative agreement with measurements. However, the highly nonlinear pressure response measured on the blade suction surface is not captured in the present inviscid analysis.

  13. REFIR - The operational FutureVolc multi-parameter system providing a best estimate of mass eruption rate during ongoing eruptions in near real-time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dürig, Tobias

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic ash injected into the atmosphere poses a serious threat for aviation. Forecasting the concentration of ash promptly requires detailed knowledge of eruption source parameters. However, monitoring an ongoing eruption and quantifying the mass flux in real-time is a considerable challenge. Due to the large uncertainties affecting present-day models, best estimates are often obtained by the application of integrated approaches. One example for this strategy is represented by the EU supersite project "FutureVolc" which aims to monitor eruptions of volcanoes in Iceland. A quasi-autonomous multi-parameter system, denoted "REFIR", has been developed. REFIR makes use of streaming data provided by a multitude of sensors, e.g. by C- and X-band radars, web-cam based plume height tracking systems, imaging ultra-violet and infrared cameras and electric field sensors. These observations are used with plume models that also consider the current local wind and other atmospheric conditions, and a best estimate of source parameters, including the mass eruption rate, is provided in near real-time (within a time interval of 5 minutes) as soon as an eruption has started. Since neither the time nor the location of the next Icelandic eruption is known the system has been developed with a guiding principle of maximum flexibility, and it can effortlessly be implemented elsewhere needing minimum adoption to local conditions. Moreover, it is designed to be easily upgraded, which allows future extension of the existing monitoring network, learning from new events, and incorporating new technologies and model improvements. Data-flow, features and integrated models within REFIR will be presented and strategies for implementing potential future research developments on ash plume dynamics will be discussed.

  14. A Simple Tool to Predict ESRD Within 1 Year in Elderly Patients with Advanced CKD

    PubMed Central

    Drawz, Paul E.; Goswami, Puja; Azem, Reem; Babineau, Denise C.; Rahman, Mahboob

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common in older patients; currently, no tools are available to predict the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) within 1 year. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a model to predict the 1 year risk for ESRD in elderly subjects with advanced CKD. DESIGN Retrospective study SETTING Veterans Affairs Medical Center PARTICIPANTS Patients over 65 years of age with CKD with an estimated (eGFR) less than 30mL/min/1.73m2. MEASUREMENTS The outcome was ESRD within 1 year of the index eGFR. Cox regression was used to develop a predictive model (VA risk score) which was validated in a separate cohort. RESULTS Of the 1,866 patients in the developmental cohort, 77 developed ESRD. Risk factors for ESRD in the final model were age, congestive heart failure, systolic blood pressure, eGFR, potassium, and albumin. In the validation cohort, the C index for the VA risk score was 0.823. The risk for developing ESRD at 1 year from lowest to highest tertile was 0.08%, 2.7%, and 11.3% (P<0.001). The C-index for the recently published Tangri model in the validation cohort was 0.780. CONCLUSION A new model using commonly available clinical measures shows excellent ability to predict the onset of ESRD within the next year in elderly subjects. Additionally, the Tangri model had very good predictive ability. Patients and physicians can use these risk models to inform decisions regarding preparation for renal replacement therapy in patients with advanced CKD. PMID:23617782

  15. Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry V.; Schifer, Nicholas A.; Briggs, Maxwell H.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASCs convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a particular operating frequency, hot end and cold end temperatures, and specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. Microporous bulk insulation is used in the ground support test hardware to minimize the loss of thermal energy from the electric heat source to the environment. The insulation package is characterized before operation to predict how much heat will be absorbed by the convertor and how much will be lost to the environment during operation. In an effort to validate these predictions, numerous tasks have been performed, which provided a more accurate value for net heat input into the ASCs. This test and modeling effort included: (a) making thermophysical property measurements of test setup materials to provide inputs to the numerical models, (b) acquiring additional test data that was collected during convertor tests to provide numerical models with temperature profiles of the test setup via thermocouple and infrared measurements, (c) using multidimensional numerical models (computational fluid dynamics code) to predict net heat input of an operating convertor, and (d) using validation test hardware to provide direct comparison of numerical results and validate the multidimensional numerical models used to predict convertor net heat input. This effort produced high fidelity ASC net heat input predictions, which were successfully validated using

  16. Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

    PubMed Central

    Shao, Yu-Yun; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

    2015-01-01

    Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC. PMID:26420960

  17. Comparison of two imaging programs in predicting the soft tissue changes with mandibular advancement surgery.

    PubMed

    Ravindranath, Sneha; Krishnaswamy, Nathamuni Rengarajan; Sundaram, Venkateswaran

    2011-01-01

    Establishing common objectives and expectations concerning the outcome of proposed surgical orthodontic therapy is a crucial part of the treatment planning process, which has been greatly simplified by imaging software. The purpose of this study was to investigate the reliability of two surgical imaging programs--Dolphin Imaging 10 and Vistadent OC--in simulating the actual outcome of mandibular advancement surgery by using a visual analog scale (VAS) judged by a panel of orthodontists, oral surgeons, and laypersons. The predictions were also analyzed with soft tissue cephalometric evaluation. The results of the study showed that in predicting the surgical outcome evaluated by the VAS, both programs received a mean rating of fair. One was marginally superior for the overall assessment among all three panelist groups. Region-wise, rating indicated the lower lip region to be the least accurate, and the submental region received the highest scores. The soft tissue cephalometric parameters showed minimal differences except for the lower lip parameters. Thus, Dolphin Imaging 10 and Vistadent OC are reliable in predicting mandibular advancement surgical outcomes with inaccuracies chiefly in the lower lip region. PMID:22299108

  18. Recent advances in dynamical extra-seasonal to annual climate prediction at IAP/CAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Zhaohui; Wang, Huijun; Zhou, Guangqing; Chen, Hong; Lang, Xianmei; Zhao, Yan; Zeng, Qingcun

    2004-06-01

    Recent advances in dynamical climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) during the last five years have been briefly described in this paper. Firstly, the second generation of the IAP dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-II) has been described, and two sets of hindcast experiments of the summer rainfall anomalies over China for the periods of 1980 1994 with different versions of the IAP AGCM have been conducted. The comparison results show that the predictive skill of summer rainfall anomalies over China is improved with the improved IAP AGCM in which the surface albedo parameterization is modified. Furthermore, IAP DCP-II has been applied to the real-time prediction of summer rainfall anomalies over China since 1998, and the verification results show that IAP DCP-II can quite well capture the large scale patterns of the summer flood/drought situations over China during the last five years (1998 2002). Meanwhile, an investigation has demonstrated the importance of the atmospheric initial conditions on the seasonal climate prediction, along with studies on the influences from surface boundary conditions (e.g., land surface characteristics, sea surface temperature). Certain conclusions have been reached, such as, the initial atmospheric anomalies in spring may play an important role in the summer climate anomalies, and soil moisture anomalies in spring can also have a significant impact on the summer climate anomalies over East Asia. Finally, several practical techniques (e.g., ensemble technique, correction method, etc.), which lead to the increase of the prediction skill for summer rainfall anomalies over China, have also been illustrated. The paper concludes with a list of critical requirements needed for the further improvement of dynamical seasonal climate prediction.

  19. Simulation studies of the impact of advanced observing systems on numerical weather prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, R.; Kalnay, E.; Susskind, J.; Reuter, D.; Baker, W. E.; Halem, M.

    1984-01-01

    To study the potential impact of advanced passive sounders and lidar temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind observing systems on large-scale numerical weather prediction, a series of realistic simulation studies between the European Center for medium-range weather forecasts, the National Meteorological Center, and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences is conducted. The project attempts to avoid the unrealistic character of earlier simulation studies. The previous simulation studies and real-data impact tests are reviewed and the design of the current simulation system is described. Consideration is given to the simulation of observations of space-based sounding systems.

  20. Development of a constitutive model for creep and life prediction of advanced silicon nitride ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Ding, J.L.; Liu, K.C.; Brinkman, C.R.

    1992-12-31

    A constitutive model capable of describing deformation and predicting rupture life was developed for high temperature ceramic materials under general thermal-mechanical loading conditions. The model was developed based on the deformation and fracture behavior observed from a systematic experimental study on an advanced silicon nitride (Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}) ceramic material. Validity of the model was evaluated with reference to creep and creep rupture data obtained under constant and stepwise-varied loading conditions, including the effects of annealing on creep and creep rupture behavior.

  1. A proposed predictive model for advanced fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B and its validation

    PubMed Central

    Nishikawa, Hiroki; Hasegawa, Kunihiro; Ishii, Akio; Takata, Ryo; Enomoto, Hirayuki; Yoh, Kazunori; Kishino, Kyohei; Shimono, Yoshihiro; Iwata, Yoshinori; Nakano, Chikage; Nishimura, Takashi; Aizawa, Nobuhiro; Sakai, Yoshiyuki; Ikeda, Naoto; Takashima, Tomoyuki; Iijima, Hiroko; Nishiguchi, Shuhei

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We created a predictive model using serum-based biomarkers for advanced fibrosis (F3 or more) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and to confirm the accuracy in an independent cohort. A total of 249 CHB patients were analyzed. To achieve our study aim, a training group (n = 125) and a validation group (n = 124) were formed. In the training group, parameters related to the presence of advanced fibrosis in univariate and multivariate analyses were examined, and a formula for advanced fibrosis was created. Next, we verified the applicability of the predictive model in the validation group. Multivariate analysis identified that gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT, P = 0.0343) and platelet count (P = 0.0034) were significant predictors of the presence of advanced fibrosis, while Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein (WFA+-M2BP, P = 0.0741) and hyaluronic acid (P = 0.0916) tended to be significant factors. Using these 4 parameters, we created the following formula: GMPH score = −0.755 − (0.015 × GGT) − (0.268 × WFA+-M2BP) + (0.167 × platelet count) + (0.003 × hyaluronic acid). In 8 analyzed variables (WFA+-M2BP, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, FIB-4 index, prothrombin time, platelet count, hyaluronic acid, Forns index, and GMPH score), GMPH score had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for advanced fibrosis with a value of 0.8064 in the training group and in the validation group, GMPH score also had the highest AUROC (0.7782). In all subgroup analyses of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) status (HB surface antigen quantification, HBV-DNA quantification, and HBe antigen seropositivity), GMPH score in F3 or F4 was significantly lower than that in F0 to F2. In the above mentioned 8 variables, differences between the liver fibrosis stages (F0 to F1 vs F2, F2 vs F3, F3 vs F4, F0 to F1 vs F3, F0 to F1 vs F4, and F2 vs

  2. A proposed predictive model for advanced fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B and its validation.

    PubMed

    Nishikawa, Hiroki; Hasegawa, Kunihiro; Ishii, Akio; Takata, Ryo; Enomoto, Hirayuki; Yoh, Kazunori; Kishino, Kyohei; Shimono, Yoshihiro; Iwata, Yoshinori; Nakano, Chikage; Nishimura, Takashi; Aizawa, Nobuhiro; Sakai, Yoshiyuki; Ikeda, Naoto; Takashima, Tomoyuki; Iijima, Hiroko; Nishiguchi, Shuhei

    2016-08-01

    We created a predictive model using serum-based biomarkers for advanced fibrosis (F3 or more) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and to confirm the accuracy in an independent cohort.A total of 249 CHB patients were analyzed. To achieve our study aim, a training group (n = 125) and a validation group (n = 124) were formed. In the training group, parameters related to the presence of advanced fibrosis in univariate and multivariate analyses were examined, and a formula for advanced fibrosis was created. Next, we verified the applicability of the predictive model in the validation group.Multivariate analysis identified that gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT, P = 0.0343) and platelet count (P = 0.0034) were significant predictors of the presence of advanced fibrosis, while Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein (WFA-M2BP, P = 0.0741) and hyaluronic acid (P = 0.0916) tended to be significant factors. Using these 4 parameters, we created the following formula: GMPH score = -0.755 - (0.015 × GGT) - (0.268 × WFA-M2BP) + (0.167 × platelet count) + (0.003 × hyaluronic acid). In 8 analyzed variables (WFA-M2BP, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, FIB-4 index, prothrombin time, platelet count, hyaluronic acid, Forns index, and GMPH score), GMPH score had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for advanced fibrosis with a value of 0.8064 in the training group and in the validation group, GMPH score also had the highest AUROC (0.7782). In all subgroup analyses of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) status (HB surface antigen quantification, HBV-DNA quantification, and HBe antigen seropositivity), GMPH score in F3 or F4 was significantly lower than that in F0 to F2. In the above mentioned 8 variables, differences between the liver fibrosis stages (F0 to F1 vs F2, F2 vs F3, F3 vs F4, F0 to F1 vs F3, F0 to F1 vs F4, and F2 vs F4) for the entire

  3. Predictive and preventive strategies to advance the treatments of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases: the Ukrainian context

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Despite great efforts in treatments of cardiovascular diseases, the field requires innovative strategies because of high rates of morbidity, mortality and disability, indicating evident deficits in predictive vascular diagnosis and individualized treatment approaches. Talking about the vascular system, currently, physicians are not provided with integrated medical approaches to diagnose and treat vascular diseases. Only an individual global approach to the analysis of all segments in the vascular system of a patient allows finding the optimal way for vascular disease treatment. As for the existing methodology, there is a dominance of static methods such as X-ray contrast angiography and magnetic resonance imaging in angiomode. Taking into account the world experience, this article deals with innovative strategies, aiming at predictive diagnosis in vascular system, personalization of the biomedical treatment approaches, and targeted prevention of individual patient cohorts. Clinical examples illustrate the advances in corresponding healthcare sectors. Recommendations are provided to promote the field. PMID:23083430

  4. Multiscale Modeling of Advanced Materials for Damage Prediction and Structural Health Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkowski, Luke

    Advanced aerospace materials, including fiber reinforced polymer and ceramic matrix composites, are increasingly being used in critical and demanding applications, challenging the current damage prediction, detection, and quantification methodologies. Multiscale computational models offer key advantages over traditional analysis techniques and can provide the necessary capabilities for the development of a comprehensive virtual structural health monitoring (SHM) framework. Virtual SHM has the potential to drastically improve the design and analysis of aerospace components through coupling the complementary capabilities of models able to predict the initiation and propagation of damage under a wide range of loading and environmental scenarios, simulate interrogation methods for damage detection and quantification, and assess the health of a structure. A major component of the virtual SHM framework involves having micromechanics-based multiscale composite models that can provide the elastic, inelastic, and damage behavior of composite material systems under mechanical and thermal loading conditions and in the presence of microstructural complexity and variability. Quantification of the role geometric and architectural variability in the composite microstructure plays in the local and global composite behavior is essential to the development of appropriate scale-dependent unit cells and boundary conditions for the multiscale model. Once the composite behavior is predicted and variability effects assessed, wave-based SHM simulation models serve to provide knowledge on the probability of detection and characterization accuracy of damage present in the composite. The research presented in this dissertation provides the foundation for a comprehensive SHM framework for advanced aerospace materials. The developed models enhance the prediction of damage formation as a result of ceramic matrix composite processing, improve the understanding of the effects of architectural and

  5. A hybrid numerical technique for predicting the aerodynamic and acoustic fields of advanced turboprops

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Homicz, G. F.; Moselle, J. R.

    1985-01-01

    A hybrid numerical procedure is presented for the prediction of the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of advanced turboprops. A hybrid scheme is proposed which in principle leads to a consistent simultaneous prediction of both fields. In the inner flow a finite difference method, the Approximate-Factorization Alternating-Direction-Implicit (ADI) scheme, is used to solve the nonlinear Euler equations. In the outer flow the linearized acoustic equations are solved via a Boundary-Integral Equation (BIE) method. The two solutions are iteratively matched across a fictitious interface in the flow so as to maintain continuity. At convergence the resulting aerodynamic load prediction will automatically satisfy the appropriate free-field boundary conditions at the edge of the finite difference grid, while the acoustic predictions will reflect the back-reaction of the radiated field on the magnitude of the loading source terms, as well as refractive effects in the inner flow. The equations and logic needed to match the two solutions are developed and the computer program implementing the procedure is described. Unfortunately, no converged solutions were obtained, due to unexpectedly large running times. The reasons for this are discussed and several means to alleviate the situation are suggested.

  6. Plasma genetic and genomic abnormalities predict treatment response and clinical outcome in advanced prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Xia, Shu; Kohli, Manish; Du, Meijun; Dittmar, Rachel L; Lee, Adam; Nandy, Debashis; Yuan, Tiezheng; Guo, Yongchen; Wang, Yuan; Tschannen, Michael R; Worthey, Elizabeth; Jacob, Howard; See, William; Kilari, Deepak; Wang, Xuexia; Hovey, Raymond L; Huang, Chiang-Ching; Wang, Liang

    2015-06-30

    Liquid biopsies, examinations of tumor components in body fluids, have shown promise for predicting clinical outcomes. To evaluate tumor-associated genomic and genetic variations in plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and their associations with treatment response and overall survival, we applied whole genome and targeted sequencing to examine the plasma cfDNAs derived from 20 patients with advanced prostate cancer. Sequencing-based genomic abnormality analysis revealed locus-specific gains or losses that were common in prostate cancer, such as 8q gains, AR amplifications, PTEN losses and TMPRSS2-ERG fusions. To estimate tumor burden in cfDNA, we developed a Plasma Genomic Abnormality (PGA) score by summing the most significant copy number variations. Cox regression analysis showed that PGA scores were significantly associated with overall survival (p < 0.04). After androgen deprivation therapy or chemotherapy, targeted sequencing showed significant mutational profile changes in genes involved in androgen biosynthesis, AR activation, DNA repair, and chemotherapy resistance. These changes may reflect the dynamic evolution of heterozygous tumor populations in response to these treatments. These results strongly support the feasibility of using non-invasive liquid biopsies as potential tools to study biological mechanisms underlying therapy-specific resistance and to predict disease progression in advanced prostate cancer. PMID:25915538

  7. A Model to Predict Nitrogen Losses in Advanced Soil-Based Wastewater Treatment Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morales, I.; Cooper, J.; Loomis, G.; Kalen, D.; Amador, J.; Boving, T. B.

    2014-12-01

    Most of the non-point source Nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds are considered environmental pollutants because they deplete the oxygen availability in water bodies and produce eutrophication. The objective of this study was to simulate the fate and transport of Nitrogen in OWTS. The commercially-available 2D/3D HYDRUS software was used to develop a transport and fate model. Experimental data from a laboratory meso-cosm study included the soil moisture content, NH4 and NO3- data. That data set was used to calibrate the model. Three types of OWTS were simulated: (1) pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (SND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. To better understand the nitrogen removal mechanism and the performance of OWTS technologies, replicate (n = 3) intact soil mesocosms were used with 15N-labelled nitrogen inputs. As a result, it was estimated that N removal by denitrification was predominant in P&S. However, it is suggested that N was removed by nitrification in SND and GEO. The calibrated model was used to estimate Nitrogen fluxes for both conventional and advanced OWTS. Also, the model predicted the N losses from nitrification and denitrification in all OWTS. These findings help to provide practitioners with guidelines to estimate N removal efficiencies for OWTS, and predict N loads and spatial distribution for identifying non-point sources.

  8. Plasma genetic and genomic abnormalities predict treatment response and clinical outcome in advanced prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Du, Meijun; Dittmar, Rachel L.; Lee, Adam; Nandy, Debashis; Yuan, Tiezheng; Guo, Yongchen; Wang, Yuan; Tschannen, Michael R.; Worthey, Elizabeth; Jacob, Howard; See, William; Kilari, Deepak; Wang, Xuexia; Hovey, Raymond L.; Huang, Chiang-Ching; Wang, Liang

    2015-01-01

    Liquid biopsies, examinations of tumor components in body fluids, have shown promise for predicting clinical outcomes. To evaluate tumor-associated genomic and genetic variations in plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and their associations with treatment response and overall survival, we applied whole genome and targeted sequencing to examine the plasma cfDNAs derived from 20 patients with advanced prostate cancer. Sequencing-based genomic abnormality analysis revealed locus-specific gains or losses that were common in prostate cancer, such as 8q gains, AR amplifications, PTEN losses and TMPRSS2-ERG fusions. To estimate tumor burden in cfDNA, we developed a Plasma Genomic Abnormality (PGA) score by summing the most significant copy number variations. Cox regression analysis showed that PGA scores were significantly associated with overall survival (p < 0.04). After androgen deprivation therapy or chemotherapy, targeted sequencing showed significant mutational profile changes in genes involved in androgen biosynthesis, AR activation, DNA repair, and chemotherapy resistance. These changes may reflect the dynamic evolution of heterozygous tumor populations in response to these treatments. These results strongly support the feasibility of using non-invasive liquid biopsies as potential tools to study biological mechanisms underlying therapy-specific resistance and to predict disease progression in advanced prostate cancer. PMID:25915538

  9. A prospective study of the efficacy of magnetic resonance spectroscopy imaging for predicting locally advanced prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Razi, Ali; Parizi, Mehdi Kardoust; Kazemeini, Seid Mohammad; Abedi, Akbar

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of magnetic resonance spectroscopy imaging (MRSI) for predicting locally advanced prostate cancer (PC). Materials and methods: Between April 2009 and July 2012, 80 consecutive patients with clinically localized PC had undergone endorectal MRSI before radical retropubic prostatectomy. Clinicopathological parameters, including age, preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA), Gleason score (GS) at biopsy, perinural invasion at biopsy, prostate weight at surgery, GS of surgical specimen, and pathological staging were recorded. The MRSI findings were compared with the histopathological findings of the radical prostatectomy. The diagnostic accuracy measures consisting of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) of MRSI, and other variables in the diagnosis of locally advanced PC (Pathology Stages pT3a, pT3b, or pT4) were evaluated. Results: Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of MRSI in detecting locally advanced PC is 42.4%, 93.6%, 82.3%, and 69.8%, respectively [area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve=0.658, p value <0.0001]. MRSI, cancer-positive core percentage at biopsy, and GS at biopsy are more accurate factors among all the predictive variables in predicting locally advanced PC. Conclusion: MRSI may be considered as a complementary diagnostic modality with high specificity and moderate sensitivity in predicting locally advanced PC. Combination of this modality with other predictive factors helps the surgeon and patient to select an appropriate treatment strategy. PMID:26328204

  10. Predictive Modeling of Estrogen Receptor Binding Agents Using Advanced Cheminformatics Tools and Massive Public Data

    PubMed Central

    Ribay, Kathryn; Kim, Marlene T.; Wang, Wenyi; Pinolini, Daniel; Zhu, Hao

    2016-01-01

    Estrogen receptors (ERα) are a critical target for drug design as well as a potential source of toxicity when activated unintentionally. Thus, evaluating potential ERα binding agents is critical in both drug discovery and chemical toxicity areas. Using computational tools, e.g., Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models, can predict potential ERα binding agents before chemical synthesis. The purpose of this project was to develop enhanced predictive models of ERα binding agents by utilizing advanced cheminformatics tools that can integrate publicly available bioassay data. The initial ERα binding agent data set, consisting of 446 binders and 8307 non-binders, was obtained from the Tox21 Challenge project organized by the NIH Chemical Genomics Center (NCGC). After removing the duplicates and inorganic compounds, this data set was used to create a training set (259 binders and 259 non-binders). This training set was used to develop QSAR models using chemical descriptors. The resulting models were then used to predict the binding activity of 264 external compounds, which were available to us after the models were developed. The cross-validation results of training set [Correct Classification Rate (CCR) = 0.72] were much higher than the external predictivity of the unknown compounds (CCR = 0.59). To improve the conventional QSAR models, all compounds in the training set were used to search PubChem and generate a profile of their biological responses across thousands of bioassays. The most important bioassays were prioritized to generate a similarity index that was used to calculate the biosimilarity score between each two compounds. The nearest neighbors for each compound within the set were then identified and its ERα binding potential was predicted by its nearest neighbors in the training set. The hybrid model performance (CCR = 0.94 for cross validation; CCR = 0.68 for external prediction) showed significant improvement over the original QSAR

  11. Early Identification of Students Predicted to Enroll in Advanced, Upper-Level High School Courses: An Examination of Validity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeRose, Diego S.; Clement, Russell W.

    2011-01-01

    Broward County Public Schools' Research Services department uses logistic regression analysis to compute an indicator to predict student enrollment in advanced high school courses, for students entering ninth grade for the first time. This prediction indicator, along with other student characteristics, supports high school guidance staffs in…

  12. Advance Prediction of the March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake: A Missed Opportunity for Disaster Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, C. A.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Soloviev, A.

    2012-12-01

    There was a missed opportunity for implementing important disaster preparedness measures following an earthquake prediction that was announced as an alarm in mid-2001. This intermediate-term middle-range prediction was the initiation of a chain of alarms that successfully detected the time, region, and magnitude range for the magnitude 9.0 March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The prediction chains were made using an algorithm called M8 and is the latest of many predictions tested worldwide for more than 25 years, the results of which show at least a 70% success rate. The earthquake detection could have been utilized to implement measures and improve earthquake preparedness in advance; unfortunately this was not done, in part due to the predictions' limited distribution and the lack of applying existing methods for using intermediate-term predictions to make decisions for taking action. The resulting earthquake and induced tsunami caused tremendous devastation to north-east Japan. Methods that were known in advance of the predication and further advanced during the prediction timeframe are presented in a scenario describing some possibilities on how the 2001 prediction may have been utilized to reduce significant damage, including damage to the Fukushima nuclear power plant, and to show prudent cost-effective actions can be taken if the prediction certainty is known, but not necessarily high. The purpose of this presentation is to show how the prediction information can be strategically used to enhance disaster preparedness and reduce future impacts from the world's largest earthquakes.

  13. Proposal for new best estimates for the soil solid-liquid distribution coefficient and soil-to-plant transfer of nickel.

    PubMed

    Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Van Hees, May; Olyslaegers, Geert; Vidal, Miquel

    2009-04-01

    The objective of this study was to compile data, based on an extensive literature survey, for the soil solid-liquid distribution coefficient (K(d)) and soil-to-plant transfer factor (TF) for nickel. The K(d) best estimates were calculated for soils grouped according to texture and organic matter content (sand, loam, clay and organic) and soil cofactors affecting soil-nickel interaction, such as pH, organic matter, and clay content. Variability in K(d) was better explained by pH than by soil texture. Nickel TF estimates were presented for major crop groups (cereals, leafy vegetables, non-leafy vegetables, root crops, tubers, fruits, herbs, pastures/grasses and fodder), and also for plant compartments within crop groups. Transfer factors were also calculated per soil group, as defined by their texture and organic matter content. Furthermore an evaluation of transfer factor dependency on specific soil characteristics was performed following regression analysis. The derived estimates were compared with parameter estimates currently in use. PMID:19223096

  14. The prediction of the building precision in the Laser Engineered Net Shaping process using advanced networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Z. L.; Li, D. C.; Lu, B. H.; Zhang, A. F.; Zhu, G. X.; Pi, G.

    2010-05-01

    Laser Engineered Net Shaping (LENS) is an advanced manufacturing technology, but it is difficult to control the depositing height (DH) of the prototype because there are many technology parameters influencing the forming process. The effect of main parameters (laser power, scanning speed and powder feeding rate) on the DH of single track is firstly analyzed, and then it shows that there is the complex nonlinear intrinsic relationship between them. In order to predict the DH, the back propagation (BP) based network improved with Adaptive learning rate and Momentum coefficient (AM) algorithm, and the least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) network are both adopted. The mapping relationship between above parameters and the DH is constructed according to training samples collected by LENS experiments, and then their generalization ability, function-approximating ability and real-time are contrastively investigated. The results show that although the predicted result by the BP-AM approximates the experimental result, above performance index of the LS-SVM are better than those of the BP-AM. Finally, high-definition thin-walled parts of AISI316L are successfully fabricated. Hence, the LS-SVM network is more suitable for the prediction of the DH.

  15. The Source Physics Experiments and Advances in Seismic Explosion Monitoring Predictive Capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walter, W. R.; Ford, S. R.; Antoun, T.; Pitarka, A.; Xu, H.; Vorobiev, O.; Rodgers, A.; Pyle, M. L.

    2012-12-01

    Despite many years of study, a number of seismic explosion phenomena remain incompletely understood. These include the generation of S-waves, the variation of absolute amplitudes with emplacement media differences, and the occasional generation of reversed Rayleigh waves. Advances in numerical methods and increased computational power have improved the physics contained in the modeling software and it is possible to couple non-linear source-region effects to far-field propagation codes to predict seismic observables, thereby allowing end-to-end modeling. However, despite the many sensor records from prior nuclear tests, the data available to develop and validate the simulation codes remain limited in important ways. This is particularly the case for the range of both scaled depths of burial and of source media, especially where full near-field to far-field records are available along with key quantitative parameter data such as depth, material properties and yield. For example, two of the most widely used seismic source models, both derived from the best empirical data, Mueller and Murphy (1971) and Denny and Johnson (1989), predict very different amplitudes for greatly overburied explosions. To provide new data to advance predictive explosion modeling capabilities, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is carrying out a series of seven chemical explosions over a range of depths and sizes in the Source Physics Experiments (SPE). These shots are taking place in the Climax Stock granite at the Nevada National Security Site, the location where reversed Rayleigh waves from a nuclear test were first observed in the 1962 HARDHAT event (e.g. Brune and Pomeroy, 1963). Three of the SPE shots have successfully occurred so far, and were well-recorded by an extensive set of instrumentation including seismic, acoustic, EM, and remote sensing. In parallel, detailed site characterization has been conducted using geologic mapping and sampling, borehole geophysics

  16. Diesel engine emissions and combustion predictions using advanced mixing models applicable to fuel sprays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abani, Neerav; Reitz, Rolf D.

    2010-09-01

    An advanced mixing model was applied to study engine emissions and combustion with different injection strategies ranging from multiple injections, early injection and grouped-hole nozzle injection in light and heavy duty diesel engines. The model was implemented in the KIVA-CHEMKIN engine combustion code and simulations were conducted at different mesh resolutions. The model was compared with the standard KIVA spray model that uses the Lagrangian-Drop and Eulerian-Fluid (LDEF) approach, and a Gas Jet spray model that improves predictions of liquid sprays. A Vapor Particle Method (VPM) is introduced that accounts for sub-grid scale mixing of fuel vapor and more accurately and predicts the mixing of fuel-vapor over a range of mesh resolutions. The fuel vapor is transported as particles until a certain distance from nozzle is reached where the local jet half-width is adequately resolved by the local mesh scale. Within this distance the vapor particle is transported while releasing fuel vapor locally, as determined by a weighting factor. The VPM model more accurately predicts fuel-vapor penetrations for early cycle injections and flame lift-off lengths for late cycle injections. Engine combustion computations show that as compared to the standard KIVA and Gas Jet spray models, the VPM spray model improves predictions of in-cylinder pressure, heat released rate and engine emissions of NOx, CO and soot with coarse mesh resolutions. The VPM spray model is thus a good tool for efficiently investigating diesel engine combustion with practical mesh resolutions, thereby saving computer time.

  17. Predictions for Swift Follow-up Observations of Advanced LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Racusin, Judith; Evans, Phil; Connaughton, Valerie

    2015-04-01

    The likely detection of gravitational waves associated with the inspiral of neutron star binaries by the upcoming advanced LIGO/Virgo observatories will be complemented by searches for electromagnetic counterparts over large areas of the sky by Swift and other observatories. As short gamma-ray bursts (GRB) are the most likely electromagnetic counterpart candidates to these sources, we can make predictions based upon the last decade of GRB observations by Swift and Fermi. Swift is uniquely capable of accurately localizing new transients rapidly over large areas of the sky in single and tiled pointings, enabling ground-based follow-up. We describe simulations of the detectability of short GRB afterglows by Swift given existing and hypothetical tiling schemes with realistic observing conditions and delays, which guide the optimal observing strategy and improvements provided by coincident detection with observatories such as Fermi-GBM.

  18. Edge Fracture Prediction ofTraditional and Advanced Trimming Processes for AA6111-T4 Sheets

    SciTech Connect

    Hu, Xiaohua; Choi, Kyoo Sil; Sun, Xin; Golovashchenko, Segey F.

    2014-02-15

    This work examines the traditional and advanced trimming of AA6111-T4 aluminum sheets with finite element simulations. The Rice-Tracy damage model is used for the simulation with damage parameters estimated from experimental observation of grain aspect ratio near the fracture surface of trimmed parts. Fine meshes at the shearing zone, adaptive meshing, and adaptive contact techniques are used to accurately capture the contact interactions between the sharp corner of the trimming tools and the blank to be trimmed. To the knowledge of the authors, these are the first trimming simulations that can predict the effects of shearing clearance on burr heights with quantitative accuracy for AA6111-T4 aluminum sheets. In addition, the models have also accurately reproduced the crack initiation site as well as burr and sliver formation mechanisms observed experimentally.

  19. Surprise Questions for Survival Prediction in Patients With Advanced Cancer: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Hamano, Jun; Morita, Tatsuya; Inoue, Satoshi; Ikenaga, Masayuki; Matsumoto, Yoshihisa; Sekine, Ryuichi; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Hirohashi, Takeshi; Tajima, Tsukasa; Tatara, Ryohei; Watanabe, Hiroaki; Otani, Hiroyuki; Takigawa, Chizuko; Matsuda, Yoshinobu; Nagaoka, Hiroka; Mori, Masanori; Yamamoto, Naoki; Shimizu, Mie; Sasara, Takeshi

    2015-01-01

    Background. Predicting the short-term survival in cancer patients is an important issue for patients, family, and oncologists. Although the prognostic accuracy of the surprise question has value in 1-year mortality for cancer patients, the prognostic value for short-term survival has not been formally assessed. The primary aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic value of the surprise question for 7-day and 30-day survival in patients with advanced cancer. Patients and Methods. The present multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted in Japan from September 2012 through April 2014, involving 16 palliative care units, 19 hospital-based palliative care teams, and 23 home-based palliative care services. Results. We recruited 2,425 patients and included 2,361 for analysis: 912 from hospital-based palliative care teams, 895 from hospital palliative care units, and 554 from home-based palliative care services. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the 7-day survival surprise question were 84.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80.7%–88.0%), 68.0% (95% CI, 67.3%–68.5%), 30.3% (95% CI, 28.9%–31.5%), and 96.4% (95% CI, 95.5%–97.2%), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the 30-day surprise question were 95.6% (95% CI, 94.4%–96.6%), 37.0% (95% CI, 35.9%–37.9%), 57.6% (95% CI, 56.8%–58.2%), and 90.4% (95% CI, 87.7%–92.6%), respectively. Conclusion. Surprise questions are useful for screening patients for short survival. However, the high false-positive rates do not allow clinicians to provide definitive prognosis prediction. Implications for Practice: The findings of this study indicate that clinicians can screen patients for 7- or 30-day survival using surprise questions with 90% or more sensitivity. Clinicians cannot provide accurate prognosis estimation, and all patients will not always die within the defined periods. The

  20. An Advanced Data Assimilation System for Estuary and Coastal Ocean Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, M. J.; Murtugudde, R.; Brown, C. W.

    2008-12-01

    We are developing an advanced data assimilation system for the Chesapeake Bay Forecast System, a regional Earth System Prediction model. To accomplish this, the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) implementation on the Chesapeake Bay (ChesROMS) has been interfaced with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to create an efficient data assimilation system. The LETKF, an ensemble Kalman filtering scheme developed at the University of Maryland, is among the most advanced data assimilation methods and is very effective for large, non-linear dynamical systems in both sparse and dense data coverage situations. Crucial to the LETKF-ChesROMS assimilation system is having accurate open ocean boundary conditions from GODAE and other large scale products. Currently, the assimilation system is run with prescribed climatological boundary conditions in a relatively coarse resolution. In perfect model experiments using ChesROMS, the filter converges quickly and greatly reduces the analysis and subsequent forecast errors in the temperature, salinity, and velocity fields. This error reduction has proved fairly robust to sensitivity studies such as reduced data coverage. The LETKF also provides an efficient algorithm for error estimation and facilitates the investigation of the spatial distribution of the error. This information will be used to determine areas where more monitoring is needed and to address other issues of the observational impacts on the analyses and observational system simulation experiments, in addition to forecast initialization experiments and regional reanalyses for the past decade.

  1. Contribution to the development of DOE ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data (CMBE) products: Satellite data over the ARM permanent and AMF sites: Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, B; Dong, X; Xie, S

    2012-05-18

    To support the LLNL ARM infrastructure team Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) data development, the University of North Dakota (UND)'s group will provide the LLNL team the NASA CERES and ISCCP satellite retrieved cloud and radiative properties for the periods when they are available over the ARM permanent research sites. The current available datasets, to date, are as follows: the CERES/TERRA during 200003-200812; the CERES/AQUA during 200207-200712; and the ISCCP during 199601-200806. The detailed parameters list below: (1) CERES Shortwave radiative fluxes (net and downwelling); (2) CERES Longwave radiative fluxes (upwelling) - (items 1 & 2 include both all-sky and clear-sky fluxes); (3) CERES Layered clouds (total, high, middle, and low); (4) CERES Cloud thickness; (5) CERES Effective cloud height; (6) CERES cloud microphysical/optical properties; (7) ISCCP optical depth cloud top pressure matrix; (8) ISCCP derived cloud types (r.g., cirrus, stratus, etc.); and (9) ISCCP infrared derived cloud top pressures. (10) The UND group shall apply necessary quality checks to the original CERES and ISCCP data to remove suspicious data points. The temporal resolution for CERES data should be all available satellite overpasses over the ARM sites; for ISCCP data, it should be 3-hourly. The spatial resolution is the closest satellite field of view observations to the ARM surface sites. All the provided satellite data should be in a format that is consistent with the current ARM CMBE dataset so that the satellite data can be easily merged into the CMBE dataset.

  2. Investigation to advance prediction techniques of the low-speed aerodynamics of V/STOL aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maskew, B.; Strash, D.; Nathman, J.; Dvorak, F. A.

    1985-01-01

    A computer program, VSAERO, has been applied to a number of V/STOL configurations with a view to advancing prediction techniques for the low-speed aerodynamic characteristics. The program couples a low-order panel method with surface streamline calculation and integral boundary layer procedures. The panel method--which uses piecewise constant source and doublet panels-includes an iterative procedure for wake shape and models boundary layer displacement effect using the source transpiration technique. Certain improvements to a basic vortex tube jet model were installed in the code prior to evaluation. Very promising results were obtained for surface pressures near a jet issuing at 90 deg from a flat plate. A solid core model was used in the initial part of the jet with a simple entrainment model. Preliminary representation of the downstream separation zone significantly improve the correlation. The program accurately predicted the pressure distribution inside the inlet on the Grumman 698-411 design at a range of flight conditions. Furthermore, coupled viscous/potential flow calculations gave very close correlation with experimentally determined operational boundaries dictated by the onset of separation inside the inlet. Experimentally observed degradation of these operational boundaries between nacelle-alone tests and tests on the full configuration were also indicated by the calculation. Application of the program to the General Dynamics STOL fighter design were equally encouraging. Very close agreement was observed between experiment and calculation for the effects of power on pressure distribution, lift and lift curve slope.

  3. [Plasma Biomarkers as Predictive Factors for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Sorafenib].

    PubMed

    Shiozawa, Kazue; Watanabe, Manabu; Ikehara, Takashi; Matsukiyo, Yasushi; Kogame, Michio; Shinohara, Mie; Kikuchi, Yoshinori; Igarashi, Yoshinori; Sumino, Yasukiyo

    2016-07-01

    We examined plasma biomarkers as predictive factors for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma(ad-HCC)patients treated with sorafenib. We analyzed a-fetoprotein(AFP), AFP-L3, des-g-carboxy prothrombin(DCP), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio(PLR), and vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)before sorafenib therapy, and changes in AFP-L3, NLR, PLR, and VEGF 1 month after sorafenib therapy in 16 patients. High AFP-L3(hazard ratio: 1.058, 95%CI: 1.019-1.098, p=0.003)and high NLR(hazard ratio: 1.475, 95%CI: 1.045-2.082, p=0.027)were significantly associated with poor prognosis in ad-HCC patients treated with sorafenib. There were no significant differences in changes in AFP-L3, NLR, PLR, and VEGF 1 month after sorafenib therapy. We suggest that AFP-L3 and NLR levels before sorafenib therapy in patients with ad-HCC are an important predictive factor for the therapeutic effect of sorafenib and patient survival. PMID:27431630

  4. Advanced error-prediction LDPC with temperature compensation for highly reliable SSDs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokutomi, Tsukasa; Tanakamaru, Shuhei; Iwasaki, Tomoko Ogura; Takeuchi, Ken

    2015-09-01

    To improve the reliability of NAND Flash memory based solid-state drives (SSDs), error-prediction LDPC (EP-LDPC) has been proposed for multi-level-cell (MLC) NAND Flash memory (Tanakamaru et al., 2012, 2013), which is effective for long retention times. However, EP-LDPC is not as effective for triple-level cell (TLC) NAND Flash memory, because TLC NAND Flash has higher error rates and is more sensitive to program-disturb error. Therefore, advanced error-prediction LDPC (AEP-LDPC) has been proposed for TLC NAND Flash memory (Tokutomi et al., 2014). AEP-LDPC can correct errors more accurately by precisely describing the error phenomena. In this paper, the effects of AEP-LDPC are investigated in a 2×nm TLC NAND Flash memory with temperature characterization. Compared with LDPC-with-BER-only, the SSD's data-retention time is increased by 3.4× and 9.5× at room-temperature (RT) and 85 °C, respectively. Similarly, the acceptable BER is increased by 1.8× and 2.3×, respectively. Moreover, AEP-LDPC can correct errors with pre-determined tables made at higher temperatures to shorten the measurement time before shipping. Furthermore, it is found that one table can cover behavior over a range of temperatures in AEP-LDPC. As a result, the total table size can be reduced to 777 kBytes, which makes this approach more practical.

  5. Development and Application of Advanced Weather Prediction Technologies for the Wind Energy Industry (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahoney, W. P.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.; Myers, W.; Johnson, D.

    2010-12-01

    Wind energy decision makers are required to make critical judgments on a daily basis with regard to energy generation, distribution, demand, storage, and integration. Accurate knowledge of the present and future state of the atmosphere is vital in making these decisions. As wind energy portfolios expand, this forecast problem is taking on new urgency because wind forecast inaccuracies frequently lead to substantial economic losses and constrain the national expansion of renewable energy. Improved weather prediction and precise spatial analysis of small-scale weather events are crucial for renewable energy management. In early 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began a collaborative project with Xcel Energy Services, Inc. to perform research and develop technologies to improve Xcel Energy's ability to increase the amount of wind energy in their generation portfolio. The agreement and scope of work was designed to provide highly detailed, localized wind energy forecasts to enable Xcel Energy to more efficiently integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid. The wind prediction technologies are designed to help Xcel Energy operators make critical decisions about powering down traditional coal and natural gas-powered plants when sufficient wind energy is predicted. The wind prediction technologies have been designed to cover Xcel Energy wind resources spanning a region from Wisconsin to New Mexico. The goal of the project is not only to improve Xcel Energy’s wind energy prediction capabilities, but also to make technological advancements in wind and wind energy prediction, expand our knowledge of boundary layer meteorology, and share the results across the renewable energy industry. To generate wind energy forecasts, NCAR is incorporating observations of current atmospheric conditions from a variety of sources including satellites, aircraft, weather radars, ground-based weather stations, wind profilers, and even wind sensors on

  6. 15-PGDH expression as a predictive factor response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in advanced gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Min; Li, Kai; Maskey, Ninu; Xu, Zhigao; Peng, ChunWei; Tian, Sufang; Li, Yan; Yang, Guifang

    2015-01-01

    Given the various clinical and pathologic responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) in gastric cancer (GC), potential biomarkers that reflecting the efficacy of NACT on GC should be investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate the 15-PGDH expression response to NACT in GC patients and its relationship with prognosis of GC. Immunohistochemical method was used to assess the level of 15-PGDH expression in 56 GC patients who received NACT before surgery and 46 patients who underwent surgical treatment without NACT as well as their corresponding adjacent non-neoplastic tissues. We found that there was no correlation of 15-PGDH expression between non-cancerous gastric tissues and GC tissues (P=0.519), while 15-PGDH expression level in NACT group was higher than that in nNACT group (P=0.015). In patients with NACT, the higher level of 15-PGDH expression was significantly associated with well-moderately differentiated grade (P=0.023), I/II stage (P=0.014) and with no lymph node metastasis (P=0.016). Moreover, statistically significant differences in overall survival (OS) were found among 15-PGDH expression (log-rank test, P<0.001) and TNM stage (log-rank test, P=0.032). Most importantly, expression of 15-PGDH was found to be an independent predictive factor by multivariate analysis (Hazard ratio (HR) 0.315 [0.120-0.827], P=0.019). These findings indicated that NACT could increase 15-PGDH expression in advanced GC patients, and 15-PGDH may serve as a candidate prognostic biomarker of advanced GC response to NACT. PMID:26261578

  7. The role of advanced reactive surface area characterization in improving predictions of mineral reaction rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckingham, L. E.; Zhang, S.; Mitnick, E.; Cole, D. R.; Yang, L.; Anovitz, L. M.; Sheets, J.; Swift, A.; Kneafsey, T. J.; Landrot, G.; Mito, S.; Xue, Z.; Steefel, C. I.; DePaolo, D. J.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.

    2014-12-01

    Geologic sequestration of CO2 in deep sedimentary formations is a promising means of mitigating carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants but the long-term fate of injected CO2 is challenging to predict. Reactive transport models are used to gain insight over long times but rely on laboratory determined mineral reaction rates that have been difficult to extrapolate to field systems. This, in part, is due to a lack of understanding of mineral reactive surface area. Many models use an arbitrary approximation of reactive surface area, applying orders of magnitude scaling factors to measured BET or geometric surface areas. Recently, a few more sophisticated approaches have used 2D and 3D image analyses to determine mineral-specific reactive surface areas that account for the accessibility of minerals. However, the ability of these advanced surface area estimates to improve predictions of mineral reaction rates has yet to be determined. In this study, we fuse X-ray microCT, SEM QEMSCAN, XRD, SANS, and SEM-FIB analysis to determine mineral-specific accessible reactive surface areas for a core sample from the Nagaoka pilot CO2 injection site (Japan). This sample is primarily quartz, plagioclase, smectite, K-feldspar, and pyroxene. SEM imaging shows abundant smectite cement and grain coatings that decrease the fluid accessibility of other minerals. However, analysis of FIB-SEM images reveals that smectite nano-pores are well connected such that access to underlying minerals is not occluded by smectite coatings. Mineral-specific accessible surfaces are determined, accounting for the connectivity of the pore space with and without connected smectite nano-pores. The large-scale impact of variations in accessibility and dissolution rates are then determined through continuum scale modeling using grid-cell specific information on accessible surface areas. This approach will be compared with a traditional continuum scale model using mineral abundances and common surface area

  8. In-Service Design & Performance Prediction of Advanced Fusion Material Systems by Computational Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    G. R. Odette; G. E. Lucas

    2005-11-15

    This final report on "In-Service Design & Performance Prediction of Advanced Fusion Material Systems by Computational Modeling and Simulation" (DE-FG03-01ER54632) consists of a series of summaries of work that has been published, or presented at meetings, or both. It briefly describes results on the following topics: 1) A Transport and Fate Model for Helium and Helium Management; 2) Atomistic Studies of Point Defect Energetics, Dynamics and Interactions; 3) Multiscale Modeling of Fracture consisting of: 3a) A Micromechanical Model of the Master Curve (MC) Universal Fracture Toughness-Temperature Curve Relation, KJc(T - To), 3b) An Embrittlement DTo Prediction Model for the Irradiation Hardening Dominated Regime, 3c) Non-hardening Irradiation Assisted Thermal and Helium Embrittlement of 8Cr Tempered Martensitic Steels: Compilation and Analysis of Existing Data, 3d) A Model for the KJc(T) of a High Strength NFA MA957, 3e) Cracked Body Size and Geometry Effects of Measured and Effective Fracture Toughness-Model Based MC and To Evaluations of F82H and Eurofer 97, 3-f) Size and Geometry Effects on the Effective Toughness of Cracked Fusion Structures; 4) Modeling the Multiscale Mechanics of Flow Localization-Ductility Loss in Irradiation Damaged BCC Alloys; and 5) A Universal Relation Between Indentation Hardness and True Stress-Strain Constitutive Behavior. Further details can be found in the cited references or presentations that generally can be accessed on the internet, or provided upon request to the authors. Finally, it is noted that this effort was integrated with our base program in fusion materials, also funded by the DOE OFES.

  9. Predictive value of serum medroxyprogesterone acetate concentration for response in advanced or recurrent breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Nishimura, R; Nagao, K; Matsuda, M; Baba, K; Matsuoka, Y; Yamashita, H; Fukuda, M; Higuchi, A; Ikeda, K

    1997-08-01

    Medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) is one of the most commonly prescribed drugs for endocrine therapy of metastatic breast cancer. In this study, the serum MPA concentration was measured by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and evaluated for its usefulness in predicting the response in 79 cases of advanced or recurrent breast cancers. Overall, 29 patients (37%) achieved an objective response. The response rate correlated significantly with the oestrogen receptor (ER) status (P = 0.03), proliferative activity determined by DNA polymerase alpha (P = 0.04), the disease-free interval (DFI) (P = 0.05) and the serum MPA concentration (P < 0.001). Patients with ER-positive tumours, lower proliferative activity, a longer (DFI) or a higher serum MPA concentration responded more frequently. The mean serum MPA concentration in the responders with ER-positive tumours (P = 0.01) or tumours with a lower proliferative activity (P = 0.008) were significantly lower than in cases with ER-negative tumours or tumours with a higher proliferative activity, respectively. Cases with soft tissue metastases showed responses at significantly lower MPA concentrations (P = 0.003) than those with bone or visceral metastases. Furthermore, there was a dramatic decrease in the MPA concentration when a responder with a high concentration became unresponsive to the therapy. Thus, the serum MPA concentration is a determining factor for the response to treatment. PMID:9337682

  10. Methodological advances in predicting flow-induced dynamics of plants using mechanical-engineering theory.

    PubMed

    de Langre, Emmanuel

    2012-03-15

    The modeling of fluid-structure interactions, such as flow-induced vibrations, is a well-developed field of mechanical engineering. Many methods exist, and it seems natural to apply them to model the behavior of plants, and potentially other cantilever-like biological structures, under flow. Overcoming this disciplinary divide, and the application of such models to biological systems, will significantly advance our understanding of ecological patterns and processes and improve our predictive capabilities. Nonetheless, several methodological issues must first be addressed, which I describe here using two practical examples that have strong similarities: one from agricultural sciences and the other from nuclear engineering. Very similar issues arise in both: individual and collective behavior, small and large space and time scales, porous modeling, standard and extreme events, trade-off between the surface of exchange and individual or collective risk of damage, variability, hostile environments and, in some aspects, evolution. The conclusion is that, although similar issues do exist, which need to be exploited in some detail, there is a significant gap that requires new developments. It is obvious that living plants grow in and adapt to their environment, which certainly makes plant biomechanics fundamentally distinct from classical mechanical engineering. Moreover, the selection processes in biology and in human engineering are truly different, making the issue of safety different as well. A thorough understanding of these similarities and differences is needed to work efficiently in the application of a mechanistic approach to ecology. PMID:22357585

  11. A Priori Attitudes Predict Amniocentesis Uptake in Women of Advanced Maternal Age: A Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Grinshpun-Cohen, Julia; Miron-Shatz, Talya; Rhee-Morris, Laila; Briscoe, Barbara; Pras, Elon; Towner, Dena

    2015-01-01

    Amniocentesis is an invasive procedure performed during pregnancy to determine, among other things, whether the fetus has Down syndrome. It is often preceded by screening, which gives a probabilistic risk assessment. Thus, ample information is conveyed to women with the goal to inform their decisions. This study examined the factors that predict amniocentesis uptake among pregnant women of advanced maternal age (older than 35 years old at the time of childbirth). Participants filled out a questionnaire regarding risk estimates, demographics, and attitudes on screening and pregnancy termination before their first genetic counseling appointment and were followed up to 24 weeks of gestation. Findings show that women's decisions are not always informed by screening results or having a medical indication. Psychological factors measured at the beginning of pregnancy: amniocentesis risk tolerance, pregnancy termination tolerance, and age risk perception affected amniocentesis uptake. Although most women thought that screening for Down syndrome risk would inform their decision, they later stated other reasons for screening, such as preparing for the possibility of a child with special needs. Findings suggest that women's decisions regarding amniocentesis are driven not only by medical factors, but also by a priori attitudes. The authors believe that these should be addressed in the dialogue on women's informed use of prenatal tests. PMID:26065331

  12. APPLICATION OF ADVANCED IN VITRO TECHNIQUES TO MEASURE, UNDERSTAND AND PREDICT THE KINETICS AND MECHANISMS OF XENOBIOTIC METABOLISM

    EPA Science Inventory

    We have developed a research program in metabolism that involves numerous collaborators across EPA as well as other federal and academic labs. A primary goal is to develop and apply advanced in vitro techniques to measure, understand and predict the kinetics and mechanisms of xen...

  13. A risk score for the prediction of advanced age-related macular degeneration: Development and validation in 2 prospective cohorts

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We aimed to develop an eye specific model which used readily available information to predict risk for advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We used the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) as our training dataset, which consisted of the 4,507 participants (contributing 1,185 affected v...

  14. Development of Computational Capabilities to Predict the Corrosion Wastage of Boiler Tubes in Advanced Combustion Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Kung, Steven; Rapp, Robert

    2014-08-31

    coal-fired boilers resulting from the coexistence of sulfur and chlorine in the fuel. A new corrosion mechanism, i.e., “Active Sulfidation Corrosion Mechanism,” has been proposed to account for the accelerated corrosion wastage observed on the furnace walls of utility boilers burning coals containing sulfur and chlorine. In addition, a second corrosion mechanism, i.e., “Active Sulfide-to-Oxide Corrosion Mechanism,” has been identified to account for the rapid corrosion attack on superheaters and reheaters. Both of the newly discovered corrosion mechanisms involve the formation of iron chloride (FeCl2) vapor from iron sulfide (FeS) and HCl, followed by the decomposition of FeCl2 via self-sustaining cycling reactions. For higher alloys containing sufficient chromium, the attack on superheaters and reheaters is dominated by Hot Corrosion in the presence of a fused salt. Furthermore, two stages of the hot corrosion mechanism have been identified and characterized in detail. The initiation of hot corrosion attack induced by molten sulfate leads to Stage 1 “acidic” fluxing and re-precipitation of the protective scale formed initially on the deposit-covered alloy surfaces. Once the protective scale is penetrated, Stage 2 Hot Corrosion is initiated, which is dominated by “basic” fluxing and re-precipitation of the scale in the fused salt. Based on the extensive corrosion information generated from this project, corrosion modeling was performed using non-linear regression analysis. As a result of the modeling efforts, two predictive equations have been formulated, one for furnace walls and the other for superheaters and reheaters. These first-of-the-kind equations can be used to estimate the corrosion rates of boiler tubes based on coal chemistry, alloy compositions, and boiler operating conditions for advanced boiler systems.

  15. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  16. Advanced MRI may complement histological diagnosis of lower grade gliomas and help in predicting survival.

    PubMed

    Cuccarini, Valeria; Erbetta, A; Farinotti, M; Cuppini, L; Ghielmetti, F; Pollo, B; Di Meco, F; Grisoli, M; Filippini, G; Finocchiaro, G; Bruzzone, M G; Eoli, M

    2016-01-01

    MRI grading of grade II and III gliomas may have an important impact on treatment decisions. Occasionally,both conventional MRI (cMRI) and histology fail to clearly establish the tumour grade. Three cMRI features(no necrosis; no relevant oedema; absent or faint contrast enhancement) previously validated in 196 patients with supratentorial gliomas directed our selection of 68 suspected low-grade gliomas (LGG) that were also investigated by advanced MRI (aMRI), including perfusion weighted imaging (PWI), diffusion weighted imaging(DWI) and spectroscopy. All the gliomas had histopathological diagnoses. Sensitivity and specificity of cMRI preoperative diagnosis were 78.5 and 38.5 %, respectively, and 85.7 and 53.8 % when a MRI was included, respectively. ROC analysis showed that cut-off values of 1.29 for maximum rCBV, 1.69 for minimum rADC, 2.1 for rCho/Cr ratio could differentiate between LGG and HGG with a sensitivity of 61.5, 53.8, and 53.8 % and a specificity of 54.7, 43 and 64.3 %, respectively. A significantly longer OS was observed in patients with a maximum rCBV<1.46 and minimum rADC>1.69 (80 vs 55 months, p = 0.01; 80 vs 51 months, p = 0.002, respectively). This result was also confirmed when cases were stratified according to pathology (LGG vs HGG). The ability of a MRI to differentiate between LGG and HGG and to predict survival improved as the number of a MRI techniques considered increased. In a selected population of suspected LGG,classification by cMRI underestimated the actual fraction of HGG. aMRI slightly increased the diagnostic accuracy compared to histopathology. However, DWI and PWI were prognostic markers independent of histological grade. PMID:26468137

  17. HOTAIR is a predictive and prognostic biomarker for patients with advanced gastric adenocarcinoma receiving fluorouracil and platinum combination chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Wei; Dong, Shuang; Duan, Bensong; Chen, Ping; Shi, Lei; Gao, Hengjun; Qi, Haizhi

    2015-01-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests that long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) HOTAIR participates in many types of cancer such as gastric cancer and may confer malignant phenotype to tumor cells. Fluorouracil and platinum combination chemotherapy is the first line therapy for gastric cancer. However, it is still unknown whether HOTAIR influences the outcome of cancer patients treated with chemotherapy. This study aimed to evaluate the association of HOTAIR expression with the prognosis of patients with advanced gastric adenocarcinoma (GA) receiving fluorouracil and platinum based chemotherapy. We examined the levels of HOTAIR in 168 GA samples using quantitative real-time PCR and analyzed its relationship with clinical features and prognosis of patients with advanced GA treated with fluorouracil and platinum based chemotherapy. Compared with paracancerous tissues, HOTAIR was significantly upregulated in GA tissues, especially in more advanced cases. High HOTAIR expression was an independent poor prognostic factor for patients with advanced GA. Further stratification analyses revealed that the association between HOTAIR expression and survival in patients with advanced GA remained significant in the subgroup of patients with TNM stages IIIA and IIIB, poorly differentiated, and smaller tumors. In conclusion, our results provide first evidence that HOTAIR may be served as a biomarker that predicts which patient with advanced GA will benefit from fluorouracil and platinum combination chemotherapy. PMID:26328013

  18. Predicting Advanced Placement Examination Success from FCAT Scores. Research Brief. Volume 0709

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Froman, Terry; Brown, Shelly; Tirado, Arleti

    2008-01-01

    Advanced Placement courses are offered at M-DCPS for students to acquire college credit or advanced college academic standing. A system has been developed in the past by the College Board to use the PSAT for 10th grade students to estimate their potential for AP Examination success. The same test has recently been applied in this district to 9th…

  19. Predicting Violence Among Forensic-Correctional Populations: The Past 2 Decades of Advancements and Future Endeavors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loza, Wagdy; Dhaliwal, Gurmeet K.

    2005-01-01

    Research on violence prediction during the past 2 decades has evolved appreciably in terms of depicting determinants of violence and developing psychometrically sound actuarial measures to predict the probability of future violent behavior. This article provides a brief synopsis of information on predicting violence gained in the past 2 decades,…

  20. Predicted reliability of aerospace electronics: Application of two advanced probabilistic concepts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suhir, E.

    Two advanced probabilistic design-for-reliability (PDfR) concepts are addressed and discussed in application to the prediction, quantification and assurance of the aerospace electronics reliability: 1) Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) model, which is an extension of the currently widely used Arrhenius model and, in combination with the exponential law of reliability, enables one to obtain a simple, easy-to-use and physically meaningful formula for the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF) of a material or a device after the given time in operation at the given temperature and under the given stress (not necessarily mechanical), and 2) Extreme Value Distribution (EVD) technique that can be used to assess the number of repetitive loadings that result in the material/device degradation and eventually lead to its failure by closing, in a step-wise fashion, the gap between the bearing capacity (stress-free activation energy) of the material or the device and the demand (loading). It is shown that the material degradation (aging, damage accumulation, flaw propagation, etc.) can be viewed, when BAZ model is considered, as a Markovian process, and that the BAZ model can be obtained as the ultimate steady-state solution to the well-known Fokker-Planck equation in the theory of Markovian processes. It is shown also that the BAZ model addresses the worst, but a reasonably conservative, situation. It is suggested therefore that the transient period preceding the condition addressed by the steady-state BAZ model need not be accounted for in engineering evaluations. However, when there is an interest in understanding the transient degradation process, the obtained solution to the Fokker-Planck equation can be used for this purpose. As to the EVD concept, it attributes the degradation process to the accumulation of damages caused by a train of repetitive high-level loadings, while loadings of levels that are considerably lower than their extreme values do not contribute

  1. Prediction of helicopter rotor discrete frequency noise: A computer program incorporating realistic blade motions and advanced acoustic formulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brentner, K. S.

    1986-01-01

    A computer program has been developed at the Langley Research Center to predict the discrete frequency noise of conventional and advanced helicopter rotors. The program, called WOPWOP, uses the most advanced subsonic formulation of Farassat that is less sensitive to errors and is valid for nearly all helicopter rotor geometries and flight conditions. A brief derivation of the acoustic formulation is presented along with a discussion of the numerical implementation of the formulation. The computer program uses realistic helicopter blade motion and aerodynamic loadings, input by the user, for noise calculation in the time domain. A detailed definition of all the input variables, default values, and output data is included. A comparison with experimental data shows good agreement between prediction and experiment; however, accurate aerodynamic loading is needed.

  2. Gene Expression Profile for Predicting Survival in Advanced-Stage Serous Ovarian Cancer Across Two Independent Datasets

    PubMed Central

    Yoshihara, Kosuke; Tajima, Atsushi; Yahata, Tetsuro; Kodama, Shoji; Fujiwara, Hiroyuki; Suzuki, Mitsuaki; Onishi, Yoshitaka; Hatae, Masayuki; Sueyoshi, Kazunobu; Fujiwara, Hisaya; Kudo, Yoshiki; Kotera, Kohei; Masuzaki, Hideaki; Tashiro, Hironori; Katabuchi, Hidetaka; Inoue, Ituro; Tanaka, Kenichi

    2010-01-01

    Background Advanced-stage ovarian cancer patients are generally treated with platinum/taxane-based chemotherapy after primary debulking surgery. However, there is a wide range of outcomes for individual patients. Therefore, the clinicopathological factors alone are insufficient for predicting prognosis. Our aim is to identify a progression-free survival (PFS)-related molecular profile for predicting survival of patients with advanced-stage serous ovarian cancer. Methodology/Principal Findings Advanced-stage serous ovarian cancer tissues from 110 Japanese patients who underwent primary surgery and platinum/taxane-based chemotherapy were profiled using oligonucleotide microarrays. We selected 88 PFS-related genes by a univariate Cox model (p<0.01) and generated the prognostic index based on 88 PFS-related genes after adjustment of regression coefficients of the respective genes by ridge regression Cox model using 10-fold cross-validation. The prognostic index was independently associated with PFS time compared to other clinical factors in multivariate analysis [hazard ratio (HR), 3.72; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.66–5.43; p<0.0001]. In an external dataset, multivariate analysis revealed that this prognostic index was significantly correlated with PFS time (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.20–1.98; p = 0.0008). Furthermore, the correlation between the prognostic index and overall survival time was confirmed in the two independent external datasets (log rank test, p = 0.0010 and 0.0008). Conclusions/Significance The prognostic ability of our index based on the 88-gene expression profile in ridge regression Cox hazard model was shown to be independent of other clinical factors in predicting cancer prognosis across two distinct datasets. Further study will be necessary to improve predictive accuracy of the prognostic index toward clinical application for evaluation of the risk of recurrence in patients with advanced-stage serous ovarian cancer. PMID:20300634

  3. The Clinical Significance of MiR-148a as a Predictive Biomarker in Patients with Advanced Colorectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Takahashi, Masanobu; Cuatrecasas, Miriam; Balaguer, Francesc; Hur, Keun; Toiyama, Yuji; Castells, Antoni; Boland, C. Richard; Goel, Ajay

    2012-01-01

    Aim Development of robust prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) is imperative for advancing treatment strategies for this disease. We aimed to determine whether expression status of certain miRNAs might have prognostic/predictive value in CRC patients treated with conventional cytotoxic chemotherapies. Methods We studied a cohort of 273 CRC specimens from stage II/III patients treated with 5-fluorouracil-based adjuvant chemotherapy and stage IV patients subjected to 5-fluorouracil and oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy. In a screening set (n = 44), 13 of 21 candidate miRNAs were successfully quantified by multiplex quantitative RT-PCR. In the validation set comprising of the entire patient cohort, miR-148a expression status was assessed by quantitative RT-PCR, and its promoter methylation was quantified by bisulfite pyrosequencing. Lastly, we analyzed the associations between miR-148a expression and patient survival. Results Among the candidate miRNAs studied, miR-148a expression was most significantly down-regulated in advanced CRC tissues. In stage III and IV CRC, low miR-148a expression was associated with significantly shorter disease free-survival (DFS), a worse therapeutic response, and poor overall survival (OS). Furthermore, miR-148a methylation status correlated inversely with its expression, and was associated with worse survival in stage IV CRC. In multivariate analysis, miR-148a expression was an independent prognostic/predictive biomarker for advanced CRC patients (DFS in stage III, low vs. high expression, HR 2.11; OS in stage IV, HR 1.93). Discussion MiR-148a status has a prognostic/predictive value in advanced CRC patients treated with conventional chemotherapy, which has important clinical implications in improving therapeutic strategies and personalized management of this malignancy. PMID:23056401

  4. Accurate Prediction of Advanced Liver Fibrosis Using the Decision Tree Learning Algorithm in Chronic Hepatitis C Egyptian Patients

    PubMed Central

    Hashem, Somaya; Esmat, Gamal; Elakel, Wafaa; Habashy, Shahira; Abdel Raouf, Safaa; Darweesh, Samar; Soliman, Mohamad; Elhefnawi, Mohamed; El-Adawy, Mohamed; ElHefnawi, Mahmoud

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aim. Respectively with the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C in the world, using noninvasive methods as an alternative method in staging chronic liver diseases for avoiding the drawbacks of biopsy is significantly increasing. The aim of this study is to combine the serum biomarkers and clinical information to develop a classification model that can predict advanced liver fibrosis. Methods. 39,567 patients with chronic hepatitis C were included and randomly divided into two separate sets. Liver fibrosis was assessed via METAVIR score; patients were categorized as mild to moderate (F0–F2) or advanced (F3-F4) fibrosis stages. Two models were developed using alternating decision tree algorithm. Model 1 uses six parameters, while model 2 uses four, which are similar to FIB-4 features except alpha-fetoprotein instead of alanine aminotransferase. Sensitivity and receiver operating characteristic curve were performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. Results. The best model achieved 86.2% negative predictive value and 0.78 ROC with 84.8% accuracy which is better than FIB-4. Conclusions. The risk of advanced liver fibrosis, due to chronic hepatitis C, could be predicted with high accuracy using decision tree learning algorithm that could be used to reduce the need to assess the liver biopsy. PMID:26880886

  5. Accurate Prediction of Advanced Liver Fibrosis Using the Decision Tree Learning Algorithm in Chronic Hepatitis C Egyptian Patients.

    PubMed

    Hashem, Somaya; Esmat, Gamal; Elakel, Wafaa; Habashy, Shahira; Abdel Raouf, Safaa; Darweesh, Samar; Soliman, Mohamad; Elhefnawi, Mohamed; El-Adawy, Mohamed; ElHefnawi, Mahmoud

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aim. Respectively with the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C in the world, using noninvasive methods as an alternative method in staging chronic liver diseases for avoiding the drawbacks of biopsy is significantly increasing. The aim of this study is to combine the serum biomarkers and clinical information to develop a classification model that can predict advanced liver fibrosis. Methods. 39,567 patients with chronic hepatitis C were included and randomly divided into two separate sets. Liver fibrosis was assessed via METAVIR score; patients were categorized as mild to moderate (F0-F2) or advanced (F3-F4) fibrosis stages. Two models were developed using alternating decision tree algorithm. Model 1 uses six parameters, while model 2 uses four, which are similar to FIB-4 features except alpha-fetoprotein instead of alanine aminotransferase. Sensitivity and receiver operating characteristic curve were performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. Results. The best model achieved 86.2% negative predictive value and 0.78 ROC with 84.8% accuracy which is better than FIB-4. Conclusions. The risk of advanced liver fibrosis, due to chronic hepatitis C, could be predicted with high accuracy using decision tree learning algorithm that could be used to reduce the need to assess the liver biopsy. PMID:26880886

  6. Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry; Schifer, Nicholas; Briggs, Maxwell

    2011-01-01

    Past methods of predicting net heat input needed to be validated. Validation effort pursued with several paths including improving model inputs, using test hardware to provide validation data, and validating high fidelity models. Validation test hardware provided direct measurement of net heat input for comparison to predicted values. Predicted value of net heat input was 1.7 percent less than measured value and initial calculations of measurement uncertainty were 2.1 percent (under review). Lessons learned during validation effort were incorporated into convertor modeling approach which improved predictions of convertor efficiency.

  7. Prediction Model for Prevalence and Incidence of Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration Based on Genetic, Demographic, and Environmental Variables

    PubMed Central

    Seddon, Johanna M.; Reynolds, Robyn; Maller, Julian; Fagerness, Jesen A.; Daly, Mark J.; Rosner, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    Purpose The joint effects of genetic, ocular, and environmental variables were evaluated and predictive models for prevalence and incidence of AMD were assessed. Methods Participants in the multicenter Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) were included in a prospective evaluation of 1446 individuals, of which 279 progressed to advanced AMD (geographic atrophy or neovascular disease) and 1167 did not progress during 6.3 years of follow-up. For prevalent AMD, 509 advanced cases were compared with 222 controls. Covariates for the incidence analysis included age, sex, education, smoking, body mass index (BMI), baseline AMD grade, and the AREDS vitamin–mineral treatment assignment. DNA specimens were evaluated for six variants in five genes related to AMD. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were performed for prevalent and incident advanced AMD. An algorithm was developed and receiver operating characteristic curves and C statistics were calculated to assess the predictive ability of risk scores to discriminate progressors from nonprogressors. Results All genetic polymorphisms were independently related to prevalence of advanced AMD, controlling for genetic factors, smoking, BMI, and AREDS treatment. Multivariate odds ratios (ORs) were 3.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7–7.1) for CFH Y402H; 3.7 (95% CI, 1.6 – 8.4) for CFH rs1410996; 25.4 (95% CI, 8.6 –75.1) for LOC387715 A69S (ARMS2); 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1– 0.7) for C2 E318D; 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1– 0.5) for CFB; and 3.6 (95% CI, 1.4 –9.4) for C3 R102G, comparing the homozygous risk/protective genotypes to the referent genotypes. For incident AMD, all these variants except CFB were significantly related to progression to advanced AMD, after controlling for baseline AMD grade and other factors, with ORs from 1.8 to 4.0 for presence of two risk alleles and 0.4 for the protective allele. An interaction was seen between CFH402H and treatment, after controlling for all genotypes. Smoking was independently

  8. Soil erosion predictions from upland areas – a discussion of selected RUSLE2 advances and needs

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Obtaining more accurate soil loss estimates from upland areas is important for improving management practices on agricultural fields. Much of the soil erosion prediction research of the last 25 years has been concerned with this goal. The most widely used predictive relationships have been the Unive...

  9. Advanced Methods for Determining Prediction Uncertainty in Model-Based Prognostics with Application to Planetary Rovers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Sankararaman, Shankar

    2013-01-01

    Prognostics is centered on predicting the time of and time until adverse events in components, subsystems, and systems. It typically involves both a state estimation phase, in which the current health state of a system is identified, and a prediction phase, in which the state is projected forward in time. Since prognostics is mainly a prediction problem, prognostic approaches cannot avoid uncertainty, which arises due to several sources. Prognostics algorithms must both characterize this uncertainty and incorporate it into the predictions so that informed decisions can be made about the system. In this paper, we describe three methods to solve these problems, including Monte Carlo-, unscented transform-, and first-order reliability-based methods. Using a planetary rover as a case study, we demonstrate and compare the different methods in simulation for battery end-of-discharge prediction.

  10. THERMAL PREDICTIONS OF NEW COMPOSITE MATERIAL DURING INPILE TESTING

    SciTech Connect

    Donna Post Guillen; W. David Swank; Heng Ban; Kurt Harris; Adam Zabriskie

    2011-09-01

    An inpile experiment is currently underway wherein specimens comprised of a newly developed material are being irradiated at Idaho National Laboratory's Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) in conjunction with Utah State University under the auspices of the ATR National Scientific User Facility. This paper provides the thermophysical properties of this new material measured prior to irradiation. After the irradiation campaign is complete, the thermophysical properties of the specimens will be measured and compared to the preirradiation values. A finite-element model was constructed to predict bounding specimen temperatures during irradiation. Results from the thermal hydraulic modeling, including the steady-state temperatures of the specimens within sealed capsules, are presented. After the irradiation campaign is completed, best-estimate thermal predictions will be performed for the individual specimens using the actual as-run irradiation power levels.

  11. An Integrated Theory for Predicting the Hydrothermomechanical Response of Advanced Composite Structural Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, C. C.; Lark, R. F.; Sinclair, J. H.

    1977-01-01

    An integrated theory is developed for predicting the hydrothermomechanical (HDTM) response of fiber composite components. The integrated theory is based on a combined theoretical and experimental investigation. In addition to predicting the HDTM response of components, the theory is structured to assess the combined hydrothermal effects on the mechanical properties of unidirectional composites loaded along the material axis and off-axis, and those of angleplied laminates. The theory developed predicts values which are in good agreement with measured data at the micromechanics, macromechanics, laminate analysis and structural analysis levels.

  12. Early prediction of pathological response in locally advanced rectal cancer based on sequential 18F-FDG PET

    PubMed Central

    HATT, MATHIEU; VAN STIPHOUT, RUUD; LE POGAM, ADRIEN; LAMMERING, GUIDO; VISVIKIS, DIMITRIS; LAMBIN, PHILIPPE

    2016-01-01

    Background The objectives of this study were to investigate the predictive value of sequential 18F-FDG PET scans for pathological tumor response grade (TRG) after preoperative chemoradiotherapy (PCRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and the impact of partial volume effects correction (PVC). Methods Twenty-eight LARC patients were included. Responders and non-responders status were determined in histopathology. PET indices [SUV max and mean, volume and total lesion glycolysis (TLG)] at baseline and their evolution after one and two weeks of PCRT were extracted by delineation of the PET images, with or without PVC. Their predictive value was investigated using Mann-Whitney-U tests and ROC analysis. Results Within baseline parameters, only SUVmean was correlated with response. No evolution after one week was predictive of the response, whereas after two weeks all the parameters except volume were, the best prediction being obtained with TLG (AUC 0.79, sensitivity 63%, specificity 92%). PVC had no significant impact on these results. Conclusion Several PET indices at baseline and their evolution after two weeks of PCRT are good predictors of response in LARC, with or without PVC, whereas results after one week are suboptimal. Best predictor was TLG reduction after two weeks, although baseline SUVmean had smaller but similar predictive power. PMID:22873767

  13. Drought Prediction Site Specific and Regional up to Three Years in Advance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suhler, G.; O'Brien, D. P.

    2002-12-01

    Dynamic Predictables has developed proprietary software that analyzes and predicts future climatic behavior based on past data. The programs employ both a regional thermodynamic model together with a unique predictive algorithm to achieve a high degree of prediction accuracy up to 36 months. The thermodynamic model was developed initially to explain the results of a study on global circulation models done at SUNY-Stony Brook by S. Hameed, R.G. Currie, and H. LaGrone (Int. Jour. Climatology, 15, pp.852-871, 1995). The authors pointed out that on a time scale of 2-70 months the spectrum of sea level pressure is dominated by the harmonics and subharmonics of the seasonal cycle and their combination tones. These oscillations are fundamental to an understanding of climatic variations on a sub-regional to continental basis. The oscillatory nature of these variations allows them to be used as broad based climate predictors. In addition, they can be subtracted from the data to yield residuals. The residuals are then analyzed to determine components that are predictable. The program then combines both the thermodynamic model results (the primary predictive model) with those from the residual data (the secondary model) to yield an estimate of the future behavior of the climatic variable. Spatial resolution is site specific or aggregated regional based upon appropriate length (45 years or more monthly data) and reasonable quality weather observation records. Most climate analysis has been based on monthly time-step data, but time scales on the order of days can be used. Oregon Climate Division 1 (Coastal) precipitation provides an example relating DynaPred's method to nature's observed elements in the early 2000s. The prediction's leading dynamic factors are the strong seasonal in the primary model combined with high secondary model contributions from planet Earth's Chandler Wobble (near 15 months) and what has been called the Quasi-Triennial Oscillation (QTO, near 36 months

  14. Predictive and prognostic significance of circulating endothelial cells in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Dong-mei; Zhang, Qin; Lv, Yan-ling; Ma, Xing-qun; Zhang, Yan; Liu, Hong-bing; Song, Yong

    2015-11-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive and prognostic values of circulating endothelial cells (CECs) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). A total of 102 newly diagnosed advanced NSCLC patients were enrolled in this study. The amount of CECs was enumerated by flow cytometry (CD45- CD31+ CD146+) at baseline. CEC counts of 56 patients were detected before and after two cycles of chemotherapy. We correlated the baseline and reduction of CECs after therapy with objective response rate (ORR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). The CEC level was significantly higher in advanced NSCLC patients, ranging from 57 to 1300 cells/10(5) cells (mean ± SD = 299 ± 221 cells/10(5) cells), than in patients with benign lesions (205 ± 97 cells/10(5) cells) and healthy volunteers (117 ± 33 cells/10(5) cells). When the cutoff value of CEC counts was 210 cells/10(5) cells, there was no significant association between CEC counts and OR/PFS/OS of the enrolled patients. However, patients with CEC response after chemotherapy have more chances to achieve OR (P < 0.001), and such patients showed longer PFS (P = 0.048) and OS (P = 0.018) than those without CEC response. In the multivariate analysis, the independent prognostic roles of brain metastasis (HR 6.165, P = 0.001), and CEC response (HR 0.442, P = 0.044) were found. The CEC counts could be considered as diagnostic biomarker for advanced NSCLC patients. And the reduction of CECs after treatment might be more ideal than the baseline CEC counts as a predictive or prognostic factor in patients treated with chemotherapy or anti-angiogenic therapy. PMID:26084612

  15. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E.

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  16. Advanced validation of CFD-FDTD combined method using highly applicable solver for reentry blackout prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Yusuke

    2016-01-01

    An analysis model of plasma flow and electromagnetic waves around a reentry vehicle for radio frequency blackout prediction during aerodynamic heating was developed in this study. The model was validated based on experimental results from the radio attenuation measurement program. The plasma flow properties, such as electron number density, in the shock layer and wake region were obtained using a newly developed unstructured grid solver that incorporated real gas effect models and could treat thermochemically non-equilibrium flow. To predict the electromagnetic waves in plasma, a frequency-dependent finite-difference time-domain method was used. Moreover, the complicated behaviour of electromagnetic waves in the plasma layer during atmospheric reentry was clarified at several altitudes. The prediction performance of the combined model was evaluated with profiles and peak values of the electron number density in the plasma layer. In addition, to validate the models, the signal losses measured during communication with the reentry vehicle were directly compared with the predicted results. Based on the study, it was suggested that the present analysis model accurately predicts the radio frequency blackout and plasma attenuation of electromagnetic waves in plasma in communication.

  17. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

    PubMed

    Keenlyside, N S; Latif, M; Jungclaus, J; Kornblueh, L; Roeckner, E

    2008-05-01

    The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming. PMID:18451859

  18. Ideal MHD Stability Prediction and Required Power for EAST Advanced Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Junjie; Li, Guoqiang; Qian, Jinping; Liu, Zixi

    2012-11-01

    The Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) is the first fully superconducting tokamak with a D-shaped cross-sectional plasma presently in operation. The ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and required power for the EAST advanced tokamak (AT) scenario with negative central shear and double transport barrier (DTB) are investigated. With the equilibrium code TOQ and stability code GATO, the ideal MHD stability is analyzed. It is shown that a moderate ratio of edge transport barriers' (ETB) height to internal transport barriers' (ITBs) height is beneficial to ideal MHD stability. The normalized beta βN limit is about 2.20 (without wall) and 3.70 (with ideal wall). With the scaling law of energy confinement time, the required heating power for EAST AT scenario is calculated. The total heating power Pt increases as the toroidal magnetic field BT or the normalized beta βN is increased.

  19. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 2, Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    This volume presents the following appendices: ceramic test specimen drawings and schematics, mixed-mode and biaxial stress fracture of structural ceramics for advanced vehicular heat engines (U. Utah), mode I/mode II fracture toughness and tension/torsion fracture strength of NT154 Si nitride (Brown U.), summary of strength test results and fractography, fractography photographs, derivations of statistical models, Weibull strength plots for fast fracture test specimens, and size functions.

  20. Development of Predictive Models of Advanced Propulsion Concepts for Low Cost Space Transportation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morrell, Michael Randy

    2002-01-01

    This final report presents the Graduate Student Research Program (GSRP) work Mr. Morrell was able to complete as a summer intern at NASA MSFS during the summer of 2001, and represents work completed from inception through project termination. The topics include: 1) NASA TD40 Organization; 2) Combustion Physics Lab; 3) Advanced Hydrocarbon Fuels; 4) GSRP Summer Tasks; 5) High Pressure Facility Installation; 6) High Pressure Combustion Issues; 7) High Energy Density Matter (HEDM) Hydrocarbons; and 8) GSRP Summer Intern Summary.

  1. OSMOSE an experimental program for improving neutronic predictions of advanced nuclear fuels.

    SciTech Connect

    Klann, R. T.; Aliberti, G.; Zhong, Z.; Graczyk, D.; Loussi, A.; Nuclear Engineering Division; Commissariat a l Energie Atomique

    2007-10-18

    This report describes the technical results of tasks and activities conducted in FY07 to support the DOE-CEA collaboration on the OSMOSE program. The activities are divided into five high-level tasks: reactor modeling and pre-experiment analysis, sample fabrication and analysis, reactor experiments, data treatment and analysis, and assessment for relevance to high priority advanced reactor programs (such as GNEP and Gen-IV).

  2. Advances and Challenges In Uncertainty Quantification with Application to Climate Prediction, ICF design and Science Stockpile Stewardship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, R.; Woodward, C. S.; Johannesson, G.; Domyancic, D.; Covey, C. C.; Lucas, D. D.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a critical field within 21st century simulation science that resides at the very center of the web of emerging predictive capabilities. The science of UQ holds the promise of giving much greater meaning to the results of complex large-scale simulations, allowing for quantifying and bounding uncertainties. This powerful capability will yield new insights into scientific predictions (e.g. Climate) of great impact on both national and international arenas, allow informed decisions on the design of critical experiments (e.g. ICF capsule design, MFE, NE) in many scientific fields, and assign confidence bounds to scientifically predictable outcomes (e.g. nuclear weapons design). In this talk I will discuss a major new strategic initiative (SI) we have developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to advance the science of Uncertainty Quantification at LLNL focusing in particular on (a) the research and development of new algorithms and methodologies of UQ as applied to multi-physics multi-scale codes, (b) incorporation of these advancements into a global UQ Pipeline (i.e. a computational superstructure) that will simplify user access to sophisticated tools for UQ studies as well as act as a self-guided, self-adapting UQ engine for UQ studies on extreme computing platforms and (c) use laboratory applications as a test bed for new algorithms and methodologies. The initial SI focus has been on applications for the quantification of uncertainty associated with Climate prediction, but the validated UQ methodologies we have developed are now being fed back into Science Based Stockpile Stewardship (SSS) and ICF UQ efforts. To make advancements in several of these UQ grand challenges, I will focus in talk on the following three research areas in our Strategic Initiative: Error Estimation in multi-physics and multi-scale codes ; Tackling the "Curse of High Dimensionality"; and development of an advanced UQ Computational Pipeline to enable

  3. Predicted and measured boundary layer refraction for advanced turboprop propeller noise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dittmar, James H.; Krejsa, Eugene A.

    1990-01-01

    Currently, boundary layer refraction presents a limitation to the measurement of forward arc propeller noise measured on an acoustic plate in the NASA Lewis 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel. The use of a validated boundary layer refraction model to adjust the data could remove this limitation. An existing boundary layer refraction model is used to predict the refraction for cases where boundary layer refraction was measured. In general, the model exhibits the same qualitative behavior as the measured refraction. However, the prediction method does not show quantitative agreement with the data. In general, it overpredicts the amount of refraction for the far forward angles at axial Mach number of 0.85 and 0.80 and underpredicts the refraction at axial Mach numbers of 0.75 and 0.70. A more complete propeller source description is suggested as a way to improve the prediction method.

  4. Machine learning and statistical methods for the prediction of maximal oxygen uptake: recent advances.

    PubMed

    Abut, Fatih; Akay, Mehmet Fatih

    2015-01-01

    Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) indicates how many milliliters of oxygen the body can consume in a state of intense exercise per minute. VO2max plays an important role in both sport and medical sciences for different purposes, such as indicating the endurance capacity of athletes or serving as a metric in estimating the disease risk of a person. In general, the direct measurement of VO2max provides the most accurate assessment of aerobic power. However, despite a high level of accuracy, practical limitations associated with the direct measurement of VO2max, such as the requirement of expensive and sophisticated laboratory equipment or trained staff, have led to the development of various regression models for predicting VO2max. Consequently, a lot of studies have been conducted in the last years to predict VO2max of various target audiences, ranging from soccer athletes, nonexpert swimmers, cross-country skiers to healthy-fit adults, teenagers, and children. Numerous prediction models have been developed using different sets of predictor variables and a variety of machine learning and statistical methods, including support vector machine, multilayer perceptron, general regression neural network, and multiple linear regression. The purpose of this study is to give a detailed overview about the data-driven modeling studies for the prediction of VO2max conducted in recent years and to compare the performance of various VO2max prediction models reported in related literature in terms of two well-known metrics, namely, multiple correlation coefficient (R) and standard error of estimate. The survey results reveal that with respect to regression methods used to develop prediction models, support vector machine, in general, shows better performance than other methods, whereas multiple linear regression exhibits the worst performance. PMID:26346869

  5. A hybrid approach to advancing quantitative prediction of tissue distribution of basic drugs in human

    SciTech Connect

    Poulin, Patrick; Ekins, Sean; Theil, Frank-Peter

    2011-01-15

    A general toxicity of basic drugs is related to phospholipidosis in tissues. Therefore, it is essential to predict the tissue distribution of basic drugs to facilitate an initial estimate of that toxicity. The objective of the present study was to further assess the original prediction method that consisted of using the binding to red blood cells measured in vitro for the unbound drug (RBCu) as a surrogate for tissue distribution, by correlating it to unbound tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kpu) of several tissues, and finally to predict volume of distribution at steady-state (V{sub ss}) in humans under in vivo conditions. This correlation method demonstrated inaccurate predictions of V{sub ss} for particular basic drugs that did not follow the original correlation principle. Therefore, the novelty of this study is to provide clarity on the actual hypotheses to identify i) the impact of pharmacological mode of action on the generic correlation of RBCu-Kpu, ii) additional mechanisms of tissue distribution for the outlier drugs, iii) molecular features and properties that differentiate compounds as outliers in the original correlation analysis in order to facilitate its applicability domain alongside the properties already used so far, and finally iv) to present a novel and refined correlation method that is superior to what has been previously published for the prediction of human V{sub ss} of basic drugs. Applying a refined correlation method after identifying outliers would facilitate the prediction of more accurate distribution parameters as key inputs used in physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) and phospholipidosis models.

  6. Predicting Cost/Reliability/Maintainability of Advanced General Aviation Avionics Equipment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, M. R.; Kamins, M.; Mooz, W. E.

    1978-01-01

    A methodology is provided for assisting NASA in estimating the cost, reliability, and maintenance (CRM) requirements for general avionics equipment operating in the 1980's. Practical problems of predicting these factors are examined. The usefulness and short comings of different approaches for modeling coast and reliability estimates are discussed together with special problems caused by the lack of historical data on the cost of maintaining general aviation avionics. Suggestions are offered on how NASA might proceed in assessing cost reliability CRM implications in the absence of reliable generalized predictive models.

  7. LiverTox: Advanced QSAR and Toxicogeomic Software for Hepatotoxicity Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, P-Y.; Yuracko, K.

    2011-02-25

    YAHSGS LLC and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) established a CRADA in an attempt to develop a predictive system using a pre-existing ORNL computational neural network and wavelets format. This was in the interest of addressing national needs for toxicity prediction system to help overcome the significant drain of resources (money and time) being directed toward developing chemical agents for commerce. The research project has been supported through an STTR mechanism and funded by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences beginning Phase I in 2004 (CRADA No. ORNL-04-0688) and extending Phase II through 2007 (ORNL NFE-06-00020). To attempt the research objectives and aims outlined under this CRADA, state-of-the-art computational neural network and wavelet methods were used in an effort to design a predictive toxicity system that used two independent areas on which to base the system’s predictions. These two areas were quantitative structure-activity relationships and gene-expression data obtained from microarrays. A third area, using the new Massively Parallel Signature Sequencing (MPSS) technology to assess gene expression, also was attempted but had to be dropped because the company holding the rights to this promising MPSS technology went out of business. A research-scale predictive toxicity database system called Multi-Intelligent System for Toxicogenomic Applications (MISTA) was developed and its feasibility for use as a predictor of toxicological activity was tested. The fundamental focus of the CRADA was an attempt and effort to operate the MISTA database using the ORNL neural network. This effort indicated the potential that such a fully developed system might be used to assist in predicting such biological endpoints as hepatotoxcity and neurotoxicity. The MISTA/LiverTox approach if eventually fully developed might also be useful for automatic processing of microarray data to predict modes of action. A technical paper describing the

  8. Advanced turboprop noise prediction: Development of a code at NASA Langley based on recent theoretical results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farassat, F.; Dunn, M. H.; Padula, S. L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of a high speed propeller noise prediction code at Langley Research Center is described. The code utilizes two recent acoustic formulations in the time domain for subsonic and supersonic sources. The structure and capabilities of the code are discussed. Grid size study for accuracy and speed of execution on a computer is also presented. The code is tested against an earlier Langley code. Considerable increase in accuracy and speed of execution are observed. Some examples of noise prediction of a high speed propeller for which acoustic test data are available are given. A brisk derivation of formulations used is given in an appendix.

  9. Advanced Models and Controls for Prediction and Extension of Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-02-01

    Predictive models of capacity and power fade must consider a multiplicity of degradation modes experienced by Li-ion batteries in the automotive environment. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must presently be absorbed by overdesign and excess warranty costs. To reduce these costs and extend life, degradation models are under development that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. The lifetime models provide engineering feedback for cell, pack and system designs and are being incorporated into real-time control strategies.

  10. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  11. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    1992-01-01

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  12. Development of advanced stability theory suction prediction techniques for laminar flow control. [on swept wings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Srokowski, A. J.

    1978-01-01

    The problem of obtaining accurate estimates of suction requirements on swept laminar flow control wings was discussed. A fast accurate computer code developed to predict suction requirements by integrating disturbance amplification rates was described. Assumptions and approximations used in the present computer code are examined in light of flow conditions on the swept wing which may limit their validity.

  13. Advances in Toxico-Cheminformatics: Supporting a New Paradigm for Predictive Toxicology

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s National Center for Computational Toxicology is building capabilities to support a new paradigm for toxicity screening and prediction through the harnessing of legacy toxicity data, creation of data linkages, and generation of new high-throughput screening (HTS) data. The D...

  14. In silico assessment of the acute toxicity of chemicals: recent advances and new model for multitasking prediction of toxic effect.

    PubMed

    Kleandrova, Valeria V; Luan, Feng; Speck-Planche, Alejandro; Cordeiro, M Natália D S

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of acute toxicity is one of the most important stages to ensure the safety of chemicals with potential applications in pharmaceutical sciences, biomedical research, or any other industrial branch. A huge and indiscriminate number of toxicity assays have been carried out on laboratory animals. In this sense, computational approaches involving models based on quantitative-structure activity/toxicity relationships (QSAR/QSTR) can help to rationalize time and financial costs. Here, we discuss the most significant advances in the last 6 years focused on the use of QSAR/QSTR models to predict acute toxicity of drugs/chemicals in laboratory animals, employing large and heterogeneous datasets. The advantages and drawbacks of the different QSAR/QSTR models are analyzed. As a contribution to the field, we introduce the first multitasking (mtk) QSTR model for simultaneous prediction of acute toxicity of compounds by considering different routes of administration, diverse breeds of laboratory animals, and the reliability of the experimental conditions. The mtk-QSTR model was based on artificial neural networks (ANN), allowing the classification of compounds as toxic or non-toxic. This model correctly classified more than 94% of the 1646 cases present in the whole dataset, and its applicability was demonstrated by performing predictions of different chemicals such as drugs, dietary supplements, and molecules which could serve as nanocarriers for drug delivery. The predictions given by the mtk-QSTR model are in very good agreement with the experimental results. PMID:25694074

  15. Low acute hematological toxicity during chemotherapy predicts reduced disease control in advanced Hodgkin's disease.

    PubMed

    Brosteanu, O; Hasenclever, D; Loeffler, M; Diehl, V

    2004-03-01

    Chemotherapy-treated patients with advanced Hodgkin's disease (HD) differ considerably in acute hematotoxicity. Hematotoxicity may be indicative of pharmacological and metabolic heterogeneity. We hypothesized that low hematotoxicity might correlate with reduced systemic dose and thus reduced disease control. A total of 266 patients with advanced HD treated with cyclophosphamide, vincristine, procarbazine, prednisone, doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (COPP-ABVD) were analyzed (HD6 trial of the German Hodgkin's Lymphoma Study Group). The reported WHO grade of leukocytopenia was averaged over chemotherapy cycles given and weighted with the reciprocal dose intensity of the corresponding cycle. The low and high toxicity groups were defined in retrospect as having had an averaged WHO grade of leukocytopenia 2.1, respectively. The independent impact of low hematological toxicity on freedom from treatment failure (FFTF) was assessed multivariately adjusting for the international prognostic score for advanced HD. The results were validated in two independent cohorts [181 patients treated with COPP-ABVD (HD9-trial) and 250 patients treated with COPP-ABV-ifosfamide, methotrexate, etoposide, and prednisone (IMEP) (HD6 trial)]. The 5-year FFTF rates were 68% for patients with high toxicity vs 47% for patients with low toxicity [multivariate relative risk (RR) 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-3.0, p=0.0002]. Patients with low toxicity received significantly higher nominal dose ( p=0.02) and dose intensity ( p<0.0001). This finding was confirmed in both validation cohorts (multivariate RR 2.1, 95% CI 1.2-3.8, p=0.01 and RR 1.5, 95% CI 1.01-2.26, p=0.04, respectively). Patients with low hematotoxicity have significantly higher failure rates despite higher doses and dose intensity. Hematotoxicity is an independent prognostic factor for treatment outcome. This observation suggests a strategy of individualized dosing adapted to hematotoxicity

  16. Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science.

    PubMed

    Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

    2016-01-01

    One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets. PMID:27532883

  17. Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science

    PubMed Central

    Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

    2016-01-01

    One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets. PMID:27532883

  18. Predicting Earthquake Occurrence at Subduction-Zone Plate Boundaries Through Advanced Computer Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsu'Ura, M.; Hashimoto, C.; Fukuyama, E.

    2004-12-01

    In general, predicting the occurrence of earthquakes is very difficult, because of the complexity of actual faults and nonlinear interaction between them. From the standpoint of earthquake prediction, however, our target is limited to the large events that completely break down a seismogenic zone. To such large events we may apply the concept of the earthquake cycle. The entire process of earthquake generation cycles generally consists of tectonic loading due to relative plate motion, quasi-static rupture nucleation, dynamic rupture propagation and stop, and restoration of fault strength. This process can be completely described by a coupled nonlinear system, which consists of an elastic/viscoelastic slip-response function that relates fault slip to shear stress change and a fault constitutive law that prescribes change in shear strength with fault slip and contact time. The shear stress and the shear strength are related with each other through boundary conditions on the fault. The driving force of this system is observed relative plate motion. The system to describe the earthquake generation cycle is conceptually quite simple. The complexity in practical modeling mainly comes from complexity in structure of the real earth. Recently, we have developed a physics-based, predictive simulation system for earthquake generation at plate boundaries in and around Japan, where the four plates of Pacific, North American, Philippine Sea and Eurasian are interacting with each other. The simulation system consists of a crust-mantle structure model, a quasi-static tectonic loading model, and a dynamic rupture propagation model. First, we constructed a realistic 3D model of plate interfaces in and around Japan by applying an inversion technique to ISC hypocenter data, and computed viscoelastic slip-response functions for this structure model. Second, we introduced the slip- and time-dependent fault constitutive law with an inherent strength-restoration mechanism as a basic

  19. UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL PREDICTIONS-PLAUSIBLE OUTCOMES FROM ESTIMATES OF INPUT RANGES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Models are commonly used to predict the future extent of contamination given estimates of hydraulic conductivity, porosity, hydraulic gradient, biodegradation rate, and other parameters. Often best estimates or averages of these are used as inputs to models, which then transform...

  20. Predictive and prognostic biomarkers for neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Lim, S H; Chua, W; Henderson, C; Ng, W; Shin, J-S; Chantrill, L; Asghari, R; Lee, C S; Spring, K J; de Souza, P

    2015-10-01

    Locally advanced rectal cancer is regularly treated with trimodality therapy consisting of neoadjuvant chemoradiation, surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. There is a need for biomarkers to assess treatment response, and aid in stratification of patient risk to adapt and personalise components of the therapy. Currently, pathological stage and tumour regression grade are used to assess response. Experimental markers include proteins involved in cell proliferation, apoptosis, angiogenesis, the epithelial to mesenchymal transition and microsatellite instability. As yet, no single marker is sufficiently robust to have clinical utility. Microarrays that screen a tumour for multiple promising candidate markers, gene expression and microRNA profiling will likely have higher yield and it is expected that a combination or panel of markers would prove most useful. Moving forward, utilising serial samples of circulating tumour cells or circulating nucleic acids can potentially allow us to demonstrate tumour heterogeneity, document mutational changes and subsequently measure treatment response. PMID:26032919

  1. Prediction of Unsteady Blade Surface Pressures on an Advanced Propeller at an Angle of Attack

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1989-01-01

    The numerical solution of the unsteady, three-dimensional, Euler equations is considered in order to obtain the blade surface pressures of an advanced propeller at an angle of attack. The specific configuration considered is the SR7L propeller at cruise conditions with a 4.6 deg inflow angle corresponding to the plus 2 deg nacelle tilt of the Propeller Test Assessment (PTA) flight test condition. The results indicate nearly sinusoidal response of the blade loading, with angle of attack. For the first time, detailed variations of the chordwise loading as a function of azimuthal angle are presented. It is observed that the blade is lightly loaded for part of the revolution and shocks appear from hub to about 80 percent radial station for the highly loaded portion of the revolution.

  2. Prediction of unsteady blade surface pressures on an advanced propeller at an angle of attack

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1989-01-01

    The paper considers the numerical solution of the unsteady, three-dimensional, Euler equations to obtain the blade surface pressures of an advanced propeller at an angle of attack. The specific configuration considered is the SR7L propeller at cruise conditions with a 4.6 deg inflow angle corresponding to the +2 deg nacelle tilt of the Propeller Test Assessment (PTA) flight test condition. The results indicate nearly sinusoidal response of the blade loading, with angle of attack. For the first time, detailed variations of the chordwise loading as a function of azimuthal angle are presented. It is observed that the blade is lightly loaded for part of the revolution and shocks appear from hub to about 80 percent radial station for the highly loaded portion of the revolution.

  3. Performance Prediction for a Hockey-Puck Silicon Crystal Monochromator at the Advanced Photon Source

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zunping; Rosenbaum, Gerd; Navrotski, Gary

    2014-03-01

    One of the Key Performance Parameters of the upgrade of the Advanced Photon Source (APS) is the increase of the storage ring current from 100 to 150 mA. In order to anticipate the impact of this increased heat load on the X-ray optics of the beamlines, the APS has implemented a systematic review, by means of finite element analysis and computational fluid dynamics, of the thermal performance of the different types of monochromators installed at the highest-heat-load insertion device beamlines. We present here simulations of the performance of a directly liquid nitrogen-cooled silicon crystal, the hockey-puck design. Calculations of the temperature and slope error at multiple ring currents under multiple operational conditions, including the influence of power, cooling, and diffraction surface thickness are included.

  4. Prognostic and Predictive Blood-Based Biomarkers in Patients with Advanced Pancreatic Cancer: Results from CALGB80303 (Alliance)

    PubMed Central

    Nixon, Andrew B.; Pang, Herbert; Starr, Mark D.; Friedman, Paula N.; Bertagnolli, Monica M.; Kindler, Hedy L.; Goldberg, Richard M.; Venook, Alan P.; Hurwitz, Herbert I.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose CALGB80303 was a phase III trial of 602 patients with locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic cancer comparing gemcitabine/bevacizumab versus gemcitabine/placebo. The study found no benefit in any outcome from the addition of bevacizumab to gemcitabine. Blood samples were collected and multiple angiogenic factors were evaluated and then correlated with clinical outcome in general (prognostic markers) and with benefit specifically from bevacizumab treatment (predictive markers). Experimental Design Plasma samples were analyzed via a novel multiplex ELISA platform for 31 factors related to tumor growth, angiogenesis, and inflammation. Baseline values for these factors were correlated with overall survival (OS) using univariate Cox proportional hazard regression models and multivariable Cox regression models with leave-one-out cross validation. Predictive markers were identified using a treatment by marker interaction term in the Cox model. Results Baseline plasma was available from 328 patients. Univariate prognostic markers for OS were identified including: Ang2, CRP, ICAM-1, IGFBP-1, TSP-2 (all P < 0.001). These prognostic factors were found to be highly significant, even after adjustment for known clinical factors. Additional modeling approaches yielded prognostic signatures from multivariable Cox regression. The gemcitabine/bevacizumab signature consisted of IGFBP-1, interleukin-6, PDGF-AA, PDGF-BB, TSP-2; whereas the gemcitabine/ placebo signature consisted of CRP, IGFBP-1, PAI-1, PDGF-AA, P-selectin (both P < 0.0001). Finally, three potential predictive markers of bevacizumab efficacy were identified: VEGF-D (P <0.01), SDF1 (P <0.05), and Ang2 (P < 0.05). Conclusion This study identified strong prognostic markers for pancreatic cancer patients. Predictive marker analysis indicated that plasma levels of VEGF-D, Ang2, and SDF1 significantly predicted for benefit or lack of benefit from bevacizumab in this population. PMID:24097873

  5. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - DYNAMO Recent Project Advancements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.; Higgins, W.

    2013-12-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within the Earth System Science (ESS) Division at NOAA's Climate Program Office. Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO): The Indian Ocean is one of Earth's most sensitive regions because the interactions between ocean and atmosphere there have a discernable effect on global climate patterns. The tropical weather that brews in that region can move eastward along the equator and reverberate around the globe, shaping weather and climate in far-off places. The vehicle for this variability is a phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. The MJO, which originates over the Indian Ocean roughly every 30 to 90 days, is known to influence the Asian and Australian monsoons. It can also enhance hurricane activity in the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, trigger torrential rainfall along the west coast of North America, and affect the onset of El Niño. CVP-funded scientists participated in the DYNAMO field campaign in 2011-12. Results from this international campaign are expected to improve researcher's insights into this influential phenomenon. A better understanding of the processes governing MJO is an essential step toward

  6. Advancing Ensemble Streamflow Prediction with Stochastic Meteorological Forcings for Hydrologic Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caraway, N.; Wood, A. W.; Rajagopalan, B.; Zagona, E. A.; Daugherty, L.

    2012-12-01

    River Forecast Centers of National Weather Service (NWS) produce seasonal streamflow forecasts via a method called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). NWS ESP forces the temperature index Snow17 and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SAC-SMA) models with historical weather sequences for the forecasting period, starting from models' current watershed initial conditions, to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. There are two major drawbacks of this method: (i) the ensembles are limited to the length of historical, limiting ensemble variability and (ii) incorporating seasonal climate forecasts (e.g., El Nino Southern Oscillation) relies on adjustment or weighting of ESP streamflow sequences. These drawbacks motivate the research presented here, which has two components: (i) a multi-site stochastic weather generator and (ii) generation of ensemble weather forecast inputs to the NWS model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. We enhanced the K-nearest neighbor bootstrap based stochastic generator include: (i) clustering the forecast locations into climatologically homogeneous regions to better capture the spatial heterogeneity and, (ii) conditioning the weather forecasts on a probabilistic seasonal climate forecast. This multi-site stochastic weather generator runs in R and the NWS models run within the new Community Hydrologic Prediction System, a forecasting sequence we label WG-ESP. The WG-ESP framework was applied to generate ensemble forecasts of spring season (April-July) streamflow in the San Juan River Basin, one of the major tributaries of the Colorado River, for the period 1981-2010. The hydrologic model requires daily weather sequences at 66 locations in the basin. The enhanced daily weather generator sequences captured the distributional properties and spatial dependence of the climatological ESP, and also generated weather sequences consistent with conditioning on seasonal climate forecasts. Spring season ensemble forecast lead times from

  7. Usefulness of human epididymis protein 4 in predicting cytoreductive surgical outcomes for advanced ovarian tubal and peritoneal carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Zhijian; Chang, Xiaohong; Ye, Xue; Li, Yi; Cheng, Hongyan

    2015-01-01

    Objective Human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) is a promising biomarker of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). But its role in assessing the primary optimal debulking (OD) of EOC remains unknown. The purpose of this study is to elucidate the ability of preoperative HE4 in predicting the primary cytoreductive outcomes in advanced EOC, tubal or peritoneal carcinoma. Methods We reviewed the records of 90 patients with advanced ovarian, tubal or peritoneal carcinoma who underwent primary cytoreduction at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of Peking University People’s Hospital between November 2005 and October 2010. Preoperative serum HE4 and CA125 levels were detected with EIA kit. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the most useful HE4 cut-off value. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify significant preoperative clinical characteristics to predict optimal primary cytoreduction. Results OD was achieved in 47.7% (43/48) of patients. The median preoperative HE4 level for patients with OD vs. suboptimal debulking was 423 and 820 pmol/L, respectively (P<0.001). The areas under the ROC curve for HE4 and CA125 were 0.716 and 0.599, respectively (P=0.080). The most useful HE4 cut-off value was 473 pmol/L. Suboptimal cytoreduction was obtained in 66.7% (38/57) of cases with HE4 ≥473 pmol/L compared with only 27.3% (9/33) of cases with HE4 <473 pmol/L. At this threshold, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for diagnosing suboptimal debulking were 81%, 56%, 67%, and 73%, respectively. Logistic regression analysis showed that the patients with HE4 ≥473 pmol/L were less likely to achieve OD (odds ratio =5.044, P=0.002). Conclusions Preoperative serum HE4 may be helpful to predict whether optimal cytoreductive surgery could be obtained or whether extended cytoreduction would be needed by an interdisciplinary team. PMID:26157328

  8. A computational framework to advance hydrometeorological prediction capabilities in cold regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, M. P.; Kavetski, D.; Slater, A. G.; Lundquist, J. D.; Wood, A. W.; Gochis, D. J.; Gutmann, E. D.; Rasmussen, R.

    2012-12-01

    Many different modeling groups recognize the need for new computational frameworks for use as both (i) a model development tool to evaluate competing process representations; and (ii) a predictive tool to reliably represent model uncertainty. Here we describe a computational framework to explore different approaches for modeling the hydrology and thermodynamics of snow and partially frozen soils. The framework has two main features: it has a "numerically agile" structural core to support evaluating the impact of different numerical approximations (e.g., vertical discretization, linearizations, etc.), and it has the modularity to support experimenting with different constitutive functions and boundary conditions. The broad flexibility of the framework facilitates constructing multiple equally plausible model realizations - these realizations can be used either as ensembles to represent model uncertainty, or examined in a systematic way to isolate the impact of individual model components on model predictions and hence facilitate a controlled approach to hypothesis testing. Application of the framework in different snow environments emphasizes the impact of (and interactions among) different modeling decisions. The approaches used to parameterize turbulent heat fluxes, parameters controlling the storage of liquid water in the snowpack, and the lower boundary conditions for hydrology were especially important in the case studies examined. More generally, results show that the impacts of differences in model structure are often overwhelmed by uncertainty in a-priori estimates of model parameters, and suggest that careful specification of probability distributions of model parameters can be used to represent model uncertainty.

  9. A model to predict deflection of bevel-tipped active needle advancing in soft tissue.

    PubMed

    Datla, Naresh V; Konh, Bardia; Honarvar, Mohammad; Podder, Tarun K; Dicker, Adam P; Yu, Yan; Hutapea, Parsaoran

    2014-03-01

    Active needles are recently being developed to improve steerability and placement accuracy for various medical applications. These active needles can bend during insertion by actuators attached to their bodies. The bending of active needles enables them to be steered away from the critical organs on the way to target and accurately reach target locations previously unachievable with conventional rigid needles. These active needles combined with an asymmetric bevel-tip can further improve their steerability. To optimize the design and to develop accurate path planning and control algorithms, there is a need to develop a tissue-needle interaction model. This work presents an energy-based model that predicts needle deflection of active bevel-tipped needles when inserted into the tissue. This current model was based on an existing energy-based model for bevel-tipped needles, to which work of actuation was included in calculating the system energy. The developed model was validated with needle insertion experiments with a phantom material. The model predicts needle deflection reasonably for higher diameter needles (11.6% error), whereas largest error was observed for the smallest needle diameter (24.7% error). PMID:24296105

  10. MicroRNA-31 Emerges as a Predictive Biomarker of Pathological Response and Outcome in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Caramés, Cristina; Cristobal, Ion; Moreno, Víctor; Marín, Juan P; González-Alonso, Paula; Torrejón, Blanca; Minguez, Pablo; Leon, Ana; Martín, José I; Hernández, Roberto; Pedregal, Manuel; Martín, María J; Cortés, Delia; García-Olmo, Damian; Fernández, María J; Rojo, Federico; García-Foncillas, Jesús

    2016-01-01

    Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision has emerged as the standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients. However, many cases do not respond to neoadjuvant CRT, suffering unnecessary toxicities and surgery delays. Thus, identification of predictive biomarkers for neoadjuvant CRT is a current clinical need. In the present study, microRNA-31 expression was measured in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) biopsies from 78 patients diagnosed with LARC who were treated with neoadjuvant CRT. Then, the obtained results were correlated with clinical and pathological characteristics and outcome. High microRNA-31 (miR-31) levels were found overexpressed in 34.2% of cases. Its overexpression significantly predicted poor pathological response (p = 0.018) and worse overall survival (OS) (p = 0.008). The odds ratio for no pathological response among patients with miR-31 overexpression was 0.18 (Confidence Interval = 0.06 to 0.57; p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis corroborated the clinical impact of miR-31 in determining pathological response to neoadjuvant CRT as well as OS. Altogether, miR-31 quantification emerges as a novel valuable clinical tool to predict both pathological response and outcome in LARC patients. PMID:27271609

  11. MicroRNA-31 Emerges as a Predictive Biomarker of Pathological Response and Outcome in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Caramés, Cristina; Cristobal, Ion; Moreno, Víctor; Marín, Juan P.; González-Alonso, Paula; Torrejón, Blanca; Minguez, Pablo; Leon, Ana; Martín, José I.; Hernández, Roberto; Pedregal, Manuel; Martín, María J.; Cortés, Delia; García-Olmo, Damian; Fernández, María J.; Rojo, Federico; García-Foncillas, Jesús

    2016-01-01

    Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision has emerged as the standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients. However, many cases do not respond to neoadjuvant CRT, suffering unnecessary toxicities and surgery delays. Thus, identification of predictive biomarkers for neoadjuvant CRT is a current clinical need. In the present study, microRNA-31 expression was measured in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) biopsies from 78 patients diagnosed with LARC who were treated with neoadjuvant CRT. Then, the obtained results were correlated with clinical and pathological characteristics and outcome. High microRNA-31 (miR-31) levels were found overexpressed in 34.2% of cases. Its overexpression significantly predicted poor pathological response (p = 0.018) and worse overall survival (OS) (p = 0.008). The odds ratio for no pathological response among patients with miR-31 overexpression was 0.18 (Confidence Interval = 0.06 to 0.57; p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis corroborated the clinical impact of miR-31 in determining pathological response to neoadjuvant CRT as well as OS. Altogether, miR-31 quantification emerges as a novel valuable clinical tool to predict both pathological response and outcome in LARC patients. PMID:27271609

  12. Correlation of predicted and measured thermal stresses on an advanced aircraft structure with similar materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    A laboratory heating test simulating hypersonic heating was conducted on a heat-sink type structure to provide basic thermal stress measurements. Six NASTRAN models utilizing various combinations of bar, shear panel, membrane, and plate elements were used to develop calculated thermal stresses. Thermal stresses were also calculated using a beam model. For a given temperature distribution there was very little variation in NASTRAN calculated thermal stresses when element types were interchanged for a given grid system. Thermal stresses calculated for the beam model compared similarly to the values obtained for the NASTRAN models. Calculated thermal stresses compared generally well to laboratory measured thermal stresses. A discrepancy of signifiance occurred between the measured and predicted thermal stresses in the skin areas. A minor anomaly in the laboratory skin heating uniformity resulted in inadequate temperature input data for the structural models.

  13. Recent advances in squamous non-small cell lung cancer: evidence beyond predictive biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Genova, Carlo; Rijavec, Erika; Grossi, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    Squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has always been characterized by a limited number of therapeutic options and by the lack of actionable biomarkers compared to its non-squamous counterpart. Recent clinical trials have led to the approval of new anti-neoplastic drugs available to both non-squamous and squamous NSCLC, consisting in a vascular-disrupting agent and two immune check-point inhibitors; additionally, a monoclonal antibody targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is currently under evaluation by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). While predictive molecular biomarkers have not been identified with consistency and are still highly demanded, these agents proved themselves noteworthy and can be considered a powerful addition to the available treatments for squamous NSCLC. PMID:26567561

  14. Advances in CFD prediction of shock wave turbulent boundary layer interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knight, Doyle; Yan, Hong; Panaras, Argyris G.; Zheltovodov, Alexander

    2003-04-01

    The paper presents a summary of recent computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of shock wave turbulent boundary layer interactions. This survey was prepared as part of the activity of NATO RTO Working Group 10 which was established in December 1998, and considers results obtained subsequent to the previous survey paper on the same topic by Knight and Degrez (“Shock Wave Boundary Layer Interactions in High Mach Number Flows-A Critical Survey of Current CFD Prediction Capabilities”, AGARD Advisory Report AR-319, Volume II, December 1998). Five configurations are considered: 2-D compression corner, 2-D shock impingement, 2-D expansion-compression corner, 3-D single fin and 3-D double fin. Recent direct numerical simulations (DNS), large eddy simulations (LES) and Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations are compared with experiment. The capabilities and limitations are described, and future research needs identified.

  15. Recovery Act. Development and Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Gutierrez, Marte

    2013-12-31

    This research project aims to develop and validate an advanced computer model that can be used in the planning and design of stimulation techniques to create engineered reservoirs for Enhanced Geothermal Systems. The specific objectives of the proposal are to; Develop a true three-dimensional hydro-thermal fracturing simulator that is particularly suited for EGS reservoir creation; Perform laboratory scale model tests of hydraulic fracturing and proppant flow/transport using a polyaxial loading device, and use the laboratory results to test and validate the 3D simulator; Perform discrete element/particulate modeling of proppant transport in hydraulic fractures, and use the results to improve understand of proppant flow and transport; Test and validate the 3D hydro-thermal fracturing simulator against case histories of EGS energy production; and Develop a plan to commercialize the 3D fracturing and proppant flow/transport simulator. The project is expected to yield several specific results and benefits. Major technical products from the proposal include; A true-3D hydro-thermal fracturing computer code that is particularly suited to EGS; Documented results of scale model tests on hydro-thermal fracturing and fracture propping in an analogue crystalline rock; Documented procedures and results of discrete element/particulate modeling of flow and transport of proppants for EGS applications; and Database of monitoring data, with focus of Acoustic Emissions (AE) from lab scale modeling and field case histories of EGS reservoir creation.

  16. Getting the Best Estimate of Learning Potential.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berliner, David; Casanova, Ursula

    1988-01-01

    Two researchers present perspectives on the types of assessments teachers should conduct to obtain the best possible expectations for student potential and achievement. Suggestions are also presented regarding ways to help students reach their potential and to continue assessing and revising expectations. (CB)

  17. Godunov-Based Model of Swash Zone Dynamics to Advance Coastal Flood Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shakeri Majd, M.; Sanders, B. F.

    2012-12-01

    Urbanized lowlands in southern California are defended against coastal flooding by sandy beaches that dynamically adjust to changes in water level and wave conditions, particularly during storm events. Recent research has shown that coastal flood impacts are scaled by the volume of beach overtopping flows, and an improved characterization of dynamic overtopping rates is needed to improve coastal flood forecasting (Gallien et al. 2012). However, uncertainty in the beach slope and height makes it difficult to predict the onset of overtopping and the magnitude of resulting flooding. That is, beaches may evolve significantly over a storm event. Sallenger (Sallenger, 2000) describes Impact Levels to distinguish different impact regimes (swash, collision, overwash and inundation) on dunes and barrier islands. Our goal is to model processes in different regimes as was described by him. Godunov-based models adopt a depth-integrated, two-phase approach and the shallow-water hypothesis to resolve flow and sediment transport in a tightly coupled manner that resolves shocks in the air/fluid and fluid/sediment interface. These models are best known in the context of debris flow modeling where the ability to predict the flow of highly concentrated sediment/fluid mixtures is required. Here, the approach is directed at the swash zone. Existing Godunov-based models are reviewed and shown to have drawbacks relative to wetting and drying and "avalanching"—important processes in the swash zone. This nonphysical erosion can be described as the natural tendency of the schemes to smear out steep bed slopes. To denote and reduce these numerical errors, new numerical methods are presented to address these limitations and the resulting model is applied to a set of laboratory-scale test problems. The shallow-water hypothesis limits the applicability of the model to the swash zone, so it is forced by a time series of water level and cross-shore velocity that accounts for surf zone wave

  18. Advanced Procedures for Long-Term Creep Data Prediction for 2.25 Chromium Steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittaker, Mark T.; Wilshire, Brian

    2013-01-01

    A critical review of recent creep studies concluded that traditional approaches such as steady-state behavior, power law equations, and the view that diffusional creep mechanisms are dominant at low stresses should be seriously reconsidered. Specifically, creep strain rate against time curves show that a decaying primary rate leads into an accelerating tertiary stage, giving a minimum rather than a secondary period. Conventional steady-state mechanisms should therefore be abandoned in favor of an understanding of the processes governing strain accumulation and the damage phenomena causing tertiary creep and fracture. Similarly, creep always takes place by dislocation processes, with no change to diffusional creep mechanisms with decreasing stress, negating the concept of deformation mechanism maps. Alternative descriptions are then provided by normalizing the applied stress through the ultimate tensile stress and yield stress at the creep temperature. In this way, the resulting Wilshire equations allow accurate prediction of 100,00 hours of creep data using only property values from tests lasting 5000 hours for a series of 2.25 chromium steels, namely grades 22, 23, and 24.

  19. The Fitness Landscape of HIV-1 Gag: Advanced Modeling Approaches and Validation of Model Predictions by In Vitro Testing

    PubMed Central

    Omarjee, Saleha; Walker, Bruce D.; Chakraborty, Arup; Ndung'u, Thumbi

    2014-01-01

    Viral immune evasion by sequence variation is a major hindrance to HIV-1 vaccine design. To address this challenge, our group has developed a computational model, rooted in physics, that aims to predict the fitness landscape of HIV-1 proteins in order to design vaccine immunogens that lead to impaired viral fitness, thus blocking viable escape routes. Here, we advance the computational models to address previous limitations, and directly test model predictions against in vitro fitness measurements of HIV-1 strains containing multiple Gag mutations. We incorporated regularization into the model fitting procedure to address finite sampling. Further, we developed a model that accounts for the specific identity of mutant amino acids (Potts model), generalizing our previous approach (Ising model) that is unable to distinguish between different mutant amino acids. Gag mutation combinations (17 pairs, 1 triple and 25 single mutations within these) predicted to be either harmful to HIV-1 viability or fitness-neutral were introduced into HIV-1 NL4-3 by site-directed mutagenesis and replication capacities of these mutants were assayed in vitro. The predicted and measured fitness of the corresponding mutants for the original Ising model (r = −0.74, p = 3.6×10−6) are strongly correlated, and this was further strengthened in the regularized Ising model (r = −0.83, p = 3.7×10−12). Performance of the Potts model (r = −0.73, p = 9.7×10−9) was similar to that of the Ising model, indicating that the binary approximation is sufficient for capturing fitness effects of common mutants at sites of low amino acid diversity. However, we show that the Potts model is expected to improve predictive power for more variable proteins. Overall, our results support the ability of the computational models to robustly predict the relative fitness of mutant viral strains, and indicate the potential value of this approach for understanding viral immune evasion

  20. Executive Summary of the 2015 ISCD Position Development Conference on Advanced Measures From DXA and QCT: Fracture Prediction Beyond BMD.

    PubMed

    Shepherd, John A; Schousboe, John T; Broy, Susan B; Engelke, Klaus; Leslie, William D

    2015-01-01

    There have been many scientific advances in fracture risk prediction beyond bone density. The International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) convened a Position Development Conference (PDC) on the use of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry beyond measurement of bone mineral density for fracture risk assessment, including trabecular bone score and hip geometry measures. Previously, no guidelines for nonbone mineral density DXA measures existed. Furthermore, there have been advances in the analysis of quantitative computed tomography (QCT) including finite element analysis, QCT of the hip, DXA-equivalent hip measurements, and opportunistic screening that were not included in the previous ISCD positions. The topics and questions for consideration were developed by the ISCD Board of Directors and the Scientific Advisory Committee and were designed to address the needs of clinical practitioners. Three task forces were created and asked to conduct comprehensive literature reviews to address specific questions. The task forces included participants from many countries and a variety of interests including academic institutions and private health care delivery organizations. Representatives from industry participated as consultants to the task forces. Task force reports with proposed position statements were then presented to an international panel of experts with backgrounds in bone densitometry. The PDC was held in Chicago, Illinois, USA, contemporaneously with the Annual Meeting of the ISCD, February 26 through February 28, 2015. This Executive Summary describes the methodology of the 2015 PDC on advanced measures from DXA and QCT and summarizes the approved official positions. Six separate articles in this issue will detail the rationale, discussion, and additional research topics for each question the task forces addressed. PMID:26277847

  1. HPV Genotypes Predict Survival Benefits From Concurrent Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy in Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Cervix

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Chun-Chieh; Lai, Chyong-Huey; Huang, Yi-Ting; Chao, Angel; Chou, Hung-Hsueh; Hong, Ji-Hong

    2012-11-15

    Purpose: To study the prognostic value of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes in patients with advanced cervical cancer treated with radiation therapy (RT) alone or concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT). Methods and Materials: Between August 1993 and May 2000, 327 patients with advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage III/IVA or stage IIB with positive lymph nodes) were eligible for this study. HPV genotypes were determined using the Easychip Registered-Sign HPV genechip. Outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: We detected 22 HPV genotypes in 323 (98.8%) patients. The leading 4 types were HPV16, 58, 18, and 33. The 5-year overall and disease-specific survival estimates for the entire cohort were 41.9% and 51.4%, respectively. CCRT improved the 5-year disease-specific survival by an absolute 9.8%, but this was not statistically significant (P=.089). There was a significant improvement in disease-specific survival in the CCRT group for HPV18-positive (60.9% vs 30.4%, P=.019) and HPV58-positive (69.3% vs 48.9%, P=.026) patients compared with the RT alone group. In contrast, the differences in survival with CCRT compared with RT alone in the HPV16-positive and HPV-33 positive subgroups were not statistically significant (P=.86 and P=.53, respectively). An improved disease-specific survival was observed for CCRT treated patients infected with both HPV16 and HPV18, but these differenced also were not statistically significant. Conclusions: The HPV genotype may be a useful predictive factor for the effect of CCRT in patients with advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix. Verifying these results in prospective trials could have an impact on tailoring future treatment based on HPV genotype.

  2. The value of lactate dehydrogenase serum levels as a prognostic and predictive factor for advanced pancreatic cancer patients receiving sorafenib

    PubMed Central

    Faloppi, Luca; Bianconi, Maristella; Giampieri, Riccardo; Sobrero, Alberto; Labianca, Roberto; Ferrari, Daris; Barni, Sandro; Aitini, Enrico; Zaniboni, Alberto; Boni, Corrado; Caprioni, Francesco; Mosconi, Stefania; Fanello, Silvia; Berardi, Rossana; Bittoni, Alessandro; Andrikou, Kalliopi; Cinquini, Michela; Torri, Valter; Scartozzi, Mario; Cascinu, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    Although lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) serum levels, indirect markers of angiogenesis, are associated with a worse outcome in several tumours, their prognostic value is not defined in pancreatic cancer. Moreover, high levels are associated even with a lack of efficacy of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, contributing to explain negative results in clinical trials. We assessed the role of LDH in advanced pancreatic cancer receiving sorafenib. Seventy-one of 114 patients included in the randomised phase II trial MAPS (chemotherapy plus or not sorafenib) and with available serum LDH levels, were included in this analysis. Patients were categorized according to serum LDH levels (LDH ≤vs.> upper normal rate). A significant difference was found in progression free survival (PFS) and in overall survival (OS) between patients with LDH values under or above the cut-off (PFS: 5.2 vs. 2.7 months, p = 0.0287; OS: 10.7 vs. 5.9 months, p = 0.0021). After stratification according to LDH serum levels and sorafenib treatment, patients with low LDH serum levels treated with sorafenib showed an advantage in PFS (p = 0.05) and OS (p = 0.0012). LDH appears to be a reliable parameter to assess the prognosis of advanced pancreatic cancer patients, and it may be a predictive parameter to select patients candidate to receive sorafenib. PMID:26397228

  3. The value of lactate dehydrogenase serum levels as a prognostic and predictive factor for advanced pancreatic cancer patients receiving sorafenib.

    PubMed

    Faloppi, Luca; Bianconi, Maristella; Giampieri, Riccardo; Sobrero, Alberto; Labianca, Roberto; Ferrari, Daris; Barni, Sandro; Aitini, Enrico; Zaniboni, Alberto; Boni, Corrado; Caprioni, Francesco; Mosconi, Stefania; Fanello, Silvia; Berardi, Rossana; Bittoni, Alessandro; Andrikou, Kalliopi; Cinquini, Michela; Torri, Valter; Scartozzi, Mario; Cascinu, Stefano

    2015-10-27

    Although lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) serum levels, indirect markers of angiogenesis, are associated with a worse outcome in several tumours, their prognostic value is not defined in pancreatic cancer. Moreover, high levels are associated even with a lack of efficacy of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, contributing to explain negative results in clinical trials. We assessed the role of LDH in advanced pancreatic cancer receiving sorafenib. Seventy-one of 114 patients included in the randomised phase II trial MAPS (chemotherapy plus or not sorafenib) and with available serum LDH levels, were included in this analysis. Patients were categorized according to serum LDH levels (LDH ≤ vs.> upper normal rate). A significant difference was found in progression free survival (PFS) and in overall survival (OS) between patients with LDH values under or above the cut-off (PFS: 5.2 vs. 2.7 months, p = 0.0287; OS: 10.7 vs. 5.9 months, p = 0.0021). After stratification according to LDH serum levels and sorafenib treatment, patients with low LDH serum levels treated with sorafenib showed an advantage in PFS (p = 0.05) and OS (p = 0.0012). LDH appears to be a reliable parameter to assess the prognosis of advanced pancreatic cancer patients, and it may be a predictive parameter to select patients candidate to receive sorafenib. PMID:26397228

  4. Immunohistochemical prediction of lapatinib efficacy in advanced HER2-positive breast cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Duchnowska, Renata; Wysocki, Piotr J.; Korski, Konstanty; Czartoryska-Arłukowicz, Bogumiła; Niwińska, Anna; Orlikowska, Marlena; Radecka, Barbara; Studziński, Maciej; Demlova, Regina; Ziółkowska, Barbara; Merdalska, Monika; Hajac, Łukasz; Myśliwiec, Paulina; Zuziak, Dorota; Dębska-Szmich, Sylwia; Lang, Istvan; Foszczyńska-Kłoda, Małgorzata; Karczmarek-Borowska, Bożenna; Żawrocki, Anton; Kowalczyk, Anna; Biernat, Wojciech; Jassem, Jacek

    2016-01-01

    Molecular mechanisms of lapatinib resistance in breast cancer are not well understood. The aim of this study was to correlate expression of selected proteins involved in ErbB family signaling pathways with clinical efficacy of lapatinib. Study group included 270 HER2-positive advanced breast cancer patients treated with lapatinib and capecitabine. Immunohistochemical expression of phosphorylated adenosine monophosphate-activated protein (p-AMPK), mitogen-activated protein kinase (p-MAPK), phospho (p)-p70S6K, cyclin E, phosphatase and tensin homolog were analyzed in primary breast cancer samples. The best discriminative value for progression-free survival (PFS) was established for each biomarker and subjected to multivariate analysis. At least one biomarker was determined in 199 patients. Expression of p-p70S6K was independently associated with longer (HR 0.45; 95% CI: 0.25–0.81; p = 0.009), and cyclin E with shorter PFS (HR 1.83; 95% CI: 1.06–3.14; p = 0.029). Expression of p-MAPK (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.13–2.29; p = 0.009) and cyclin E (HR 2.99; 95% CI: 1.29–6.94; p = 0.011) was correlated with shorter, and expression of estrogen receptor (HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.43–0.98; p = 0.041) with longer overall survival. Expression of p-AMPK negatively impacted response to treatment (HR 3.31; 95% CI 1.48–7.44; p = 0.004) and disease control (HR 3.07; 95% CI 1.25–7.58; p = 0.015). In conclusion: the efficacy of lapatinib seems to be associated with the activity of downstream signaling pathways – AMPK/mTOR and Ras/Raf/MAPK. Further research is warranted to assess the clinical utility of these data and to determine a potential role of combining lapatinib with MAPK pathway inhibitors. PMID:26623720

  5. Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Jha, Bhaskar; Peng, Peitao

    2016-03-01

    Based on hindcasts of seasonal forecast systems participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, the seasonal dependence of predictability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was estimated. The results were consistent with earlier analyses in that the predictability of ENSO was highest in winter and lowest in spring and summer. Further, predictability as measured by the relative amplitude of predictable and unpredictable components was dominated by the ensemble mean instead of the spread (or dispersion) among ensemble members. This result was consistent with previous analysis that most of ENSO predictability resides in the shift of the probability density function (PDF) of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (i.e., changes in the first moment of the PDF that is associated with the ensemble mean of ENSO SST anomalies) rather than due to changes in the spread of the PDF. The analysis establishes our current best estimate of ENSO predictability that can serve as a benchmark for quantifying further improvements resulting from advances in observing, assimilation, and seasonal prediction systems.

  6. Identification of a DNA methylation signature to predict disease-free survival in locally advanced rectal cancer

    PubMed Central

    Claus, Rainer; Weichenhan, Dieter; Jung, Klaus; Kitz, Julia; Grade, Marian; Wolff, Hendrik A.; Jo, Peter; Doyen, Jérôme; Gérard, Jean-Pierre; Johnsen, Steven A.; Plass, Christoph; Beißbarth, Tim; Ghadimi, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In locally advanced rectal cancer a preoperative predictive biomarker is necessary to adjust treatment specifically for those patients expected to suffer relapse. We applied whole genome methylation CpG island array analyses to an initial set of patients (n=11) to identify differentially methylated regions (DMRs) that separate a good from a bad prognosis group. Using a quantitative high-resolution approach, candidate DMRs were first validated in a set of 61 patients (test set) and then confirmed DMRs were further validated in additional independent patient cohorts (n=71, n=42). We identified twenty highly discriminative DMRs and validated them in the test set using the MassARRAY technique. Ten DMRs could be confirmed which allowed separation into prognosis groups (p=0.0207, HR=4.09). The classifier was validated in two additional cohorts (n=71, p=0.0345, HR=3.57 and n=42, p=0.0113, HR=3.78). Interestingly, six of the ten DMRs represented regions close to the transcriptional start sites of genes which are also marked by the Polycomb Repressor Complex component EZH2. In conclusion we present a classifier comprising 10 DMRs which predicts patient prognosis with a high degree of accuracy. These data may now help to discriminate between patients that may respond better to standard treatments from those that may require alternative modalities. PMID:25261372

  7. Numerical Simulations of Optical Turbulence Using an Advanced Atmospheric Prediction Model: Implications for Adaptive Optics Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alliss, R.

    2014-09-01

    Optical turbulence (OT) acts to distort light in the atmosphere, degrading imagery from astronomical telescopes and reducing the data quality of optical imaging and communication links. Some of the degradation due to turbulence can be corrected by adaptive optics. However, the severity of optical turbulence, and thus the amount of correction required, is largely dependent upon the turbulence at the location of interest. Therefore, it is vital to understand the climatology of optical turbulence at such locations. In many cases, it is impractical and expensive to setup instrumentation to characterize the climatology of OT, so numerical simulations become a less expensive and convenient alternative. The strength of OT is characterized by the refractive index structure function Cn2, which in turn is used to calculate atmospheric seeing parameters. While attempts have been made to characterize Cn2 using empirical models, Cn2 can be calculated more directly from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) simulations using pressure, temperature, thermal stability, vertical wind shear, turbulent Prandtl number, and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE). In this work we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) NWP model to generate Cn2 climatologies in the planetary boundary layer and free atmosphere, allowing for both point-to-point and ground-to-space seeing estimates of the Fried Coherence length (ro) and other seeing parameters. Simulations are performed using a multi-node linux cluster using the Intel chip architecture. The WRF model is configured to run at 1km horizontal resolution and centered on the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) of the Big Island. The vertical resolution varies from 25 meters in the boundary layer to 500 meters in the stratosphere. The model top is 20 km. The Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) TKE scheme has been modified to diagnose the turbulent Prandtl number as a function of the Richardson number, following observations by Kondo and others. This modification

  8. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    SciTech Connect

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  9. Prognostic and Predictive Value of Baseline and Posttreatment Molecular Marker Expression in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Treated With Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Bertolini, Federica . E-mail: bertolini.federica@policlinico.mo.it; Bengala, Carmelo; Losi, Luisa; Pagano, Maria; Iachetta, Francesco; Dealis, Cristina; Jovic, Gordana; Depenni, Roberta; Zironi, Sandra; Falchi, Anna Maria; Luppi, Gabriele; Conte, Pier Franco

    2007-08-01

    Purpose: To evaluate expression of a panel of molecular markers, including p53, p21, MLH1, MSH2, MIB-1, thymidylate synthase, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), and tissue vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), before and after treatment in patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer, to correlate the constitutive profile and dynamics of expression with pathologic response and outcome. Methods and Materials: Expression of biomarkers was evaluated by immunohistochemistry in tumor samples from 91 patients with clinical Stage II and III rectal cancer treated with preoperative pelvic radiotherapy (50 Gy) plus concurrent 5-fluorouracil by continuous intravenous infusion. Results: A pathologic complete remission was observed in 14 patients (15.4%). Patients with MLH1-positive tumors had a higher pathologic complete response rate (24.3% vs. 9.4%; p = 0.055). Low expression of constitutive p21, absence of EGFR expression after chemoradiotherapy, and high Dworak's tumor regression grade (TRG) were significantly associated with improved disease-free survival and overall survival. A high MIB-1 value after chemoradiotherapy was significantly associated with worse overall survival. Multivariate analysis confirmed the prognostic value of constitutive p21 expression as well as EGFR expression and MIB-1 value after chemoradiotherapy among patients not achieving TRG 3-4. Conclusions: In our study, we observed the independent prognostic value of EGFR expression after chemoradiotherapy on disease-free survival. Moreover, our study suggests that a constitutive high p21 expression and a high MIB-1 value after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy treatment could predict worse outcome in locally advanced rectal cancer.

  10. Primary Tumor Necrosis Predicts Distant Control in Locally Advanced Soft-Tissue Sarcomas After Preoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    MacDermed, Dhara M.; Miller, Luke L.; Peabody, Terrance D.; Simon, Michael A.; Luu, Hue H.; Haydon, Rex C.; Montag, Anthony G.; Undevia, Samir D.

    2010-03-15

    Purpose: Various neoadjuvant approaches have been evaluated for the treatment of locally advanced soft-tissue sarcomas. This retrospective study describes a uniquely modified version of the Eilber regimen developed at the University of Chicago. Methods and Materials: We treated 34 patients (28 Stage III and 6 Stage IV) with locally advanced soft-tissue sarcomas of an extremity between 1995 and 2008. All patients received preoperative therapy including ifosfamide (2.5 g/m2 per day for 5 days) with concurrent radiation (28 Gy in 3.5-Gy daily fractions), sandwiched between various chemotherapy regimens. Postoperatively, 47% received further adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: Most tumors (94%) were Grade 3, and all were T2b, with a median size of 10.3 cm. Wide excision was performed in 29 patients (85%), and 5 required amputation. Of the resected tumor specimens, 50% exhibited high (>=90%) treatment-induced necrosis and 11.8% had a complete pathologic response. Surgical margins were negative in all patients. The 5-year survival rate was 42.3% for all patients and 45.2% for Stage III patients. For limb-preservation patients, the 5-year local control rate was 89.0% and reoperation was required for wound complications in 17.2%. The 5-year freedom-from-distant metastasis rate was 53.4% (Stage IV patients excluded), and freedom from distant metastasis was superior if treatment-induced tumor necrosis was 90% or greater (84.6% vs. 19.9%, p = 0.02). Conclusions: This well-tolerated concurrent chemoradiotherapy approach yields excellent rates of limb preservation and local control. The resulting treatment-induced necrosis rates are predictive of subsequent metastatic risk, and this information may provide an opportunity to guide postoperative systemic therapies.

  11. CEA serum level as early predictive marker of outcome during EGFR-TKI therapy in advanced NSCLC patients.

    PubMed

    Facchinetti, Francesco; Aldigeri, Raffaella; Aloe, Rosalia; Bortesi, Beatrice; Ardizzoni, Andrea; Tiseo, Marcello

    2015-08-01

    Considering the role of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) serum levels as potential useful predictive marker during chemotherapy treatment, we studied its applicability in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine-kinase inhibitors (TKIs). Our retrospective cohort consists of 79 patients (33 EGFR mutated and 46 EGFR wild type or unknown) affected by advanced NSCLC, for whom CEA serum values at the beginning of TKI therapy and after the first month of treatment were available, regardless of treatment line. Baseline CEA value, percentage of CEA reduction after 1 month, and percentage of patients with ≥20 % CEA decrease after 1 month (CEA response) were correlated with disease control rate (DCR), progression-free (PFS), and overall (OS) survival, according to EGFR mutational status. Median baseline CEA levels were significantly higher in EGFR mutated (40.9 ng/ml; interquartile range (IQR) 8.9-197.6) than in wild-type cases (6.2 ng/ml; IQR 2.8-12.8; p = 0.003). Both percentage reduction in CEA levels (-10.7 vs. +13.4 %) and percentage of cases with CEA response (42 vs. 20 %) were significantly higher in mutated vs. wild-type/unknown patients (p = 0.007 and p = 0.027, respectively). In wild-type/unknown patients, CEA response was significantly correlated with DCR (p = 0.001) and resulted as a significant predictor of PFS both in univariate (p = 0.002) and in multivariate analyses (hazard ratio (HR) 0.27; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.11-0.66; p = 0.004); only a trend was found for OS prediction (p = 0.082). In EGFR-mutated group, CEA reduction did not show any correlation either with PFS or OS. CEA response after 1 month of EGFR-TKI therapy could be a useful marker, worthy to further studies, as early predictor of treatment outcome in EGFR wild-type/unknown unselected NSCLC cases for which no molecular predictor is yet available. PMID:25731731

  12. Baseline MELD Score Predicts Hepatic Decompensation during Antiviral Therapy in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C and Advanced Cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Dultz, Georg; Seelhof, Martin; Herrmann, Eva; Welker, Martin-Walter; Friedrich-Rust, Mireen; Teuber, Gerlinde; Kronenberger, Bernd; von Wagner, Michael; Vermehren, Johannes; Sarrazin, Christoph; Zeuzem, Stefan; Hofmann, Wolf Peter

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aims In patients with advanced liver cirrhosis due to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection antiviral therapy with peginterferon and ribavirin is feasible in selected cases only due to potentially life-threatening side effects. However, predictive factors associated with hepatic decompensation during antiviral therapy are poorly defined. Methods In a retrospective cohort study, 68 patients with HCV-associated liver cirrhosis (mean MELD score 9.18±2.72) were treated with peginterferon and ribavirin. Clinical events indicating hepatic decompensation (onset of ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, hospitalization) as well as laboratory data were recorded at baseline and during a follow up period of 72 weeks after initiation of antiviral therapy. To monitor long term sequelae of end stage liver disease an extended follow up for HCC development, transplantation and death was applied (240weeks, ±SD 136weeks). Results Eighteen patients (26.5%) achieved a sustained virologic response. During the observational period a hepatic decompensation was observed in 36.8%. Patients with hepatic decompensation had higher MELD scores (10.84 vs. 8.23, p<0.001) and higher mean bilirubin levels (26.74 vs. 14.63 µmol/l, p<0.001), as well as lower serum albumin levels (38.2 vs. 41.1 g/l, p = 0.015), mean platelets (102.64 vs. 138.95/nl, p = 0.014) and mean leukocytes (4.02 vs. 5.68/nl, p = 0.002) at baseline as compared to those without decompensation. In the multivariate analysis the MELD score remained independently associated with hepatic decompensation (OR 1.56, 1.18–2.07; p = 0.002). When the patients were grouped according to their baseline MELD scores, hepatic decompensation occurred in 22%, 59%, and 83% of patients with MELD scores of 6–9, 10–13, and >14, respectively. Baseline MELD score was significantly associated with the risk for transplantation/death (p<0.001). Conclusions Our data suggest that the

  13. Temperature and Material Flow Prediction in Friction-Stir Spot Welding of Advanced High-Strength Steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miles, M.; Karki, U.; Hovanski, Y.

    2014-10-01

    Friction-stir spot welding (FSSW) has been shown to be capable of joining advanced high-strength steel, with its flexibility in controlling the heat of welding and the resulting microstructure of the joint. This makes FSSW a potential alternative to resistance spot welding if tool life is sufficiently high, and if machine spindle loads are sufficiently low that the process can be implemented on an industrial robot. Robots for spot welding can typically sustain vertical loads of about 8 kN, but FSSW at tool speeds of less than 3000 rpm cause loads that are too high, in the range of 11-14 kN. Therefore, in the current work, tool speeds of 5000 rpm were employed to generate heat more quickly and to reduce welding loads to acceptable levels. Si3N4 tools were used for the welding experiments on 1.2-mm DP 980 steel. The FSSW process was modeled with a finite element approach using the Forge® software. An updated Lagrangian scheme with explicit time integration was employed to predict the flow of the sheet material, subjected to boundary conditions of a rotating tool and a fixed backing plate. Material flow was calculated from a velocity field that is two-dimensional, but heat generated by friction was computed by a novel approach, where the rotational velocity component imparted to the sheet by the tool surface was included in the thermal boundary conditions. An isotropic, viscoplastic Norton-Hoff law was used to compute the material flow stress as a function of strain, strain rate, and temperature. The model predicted welding temperatures to within 4%, and the position of the joint interface to within 10%, of the experimental results.

  14. Temperature and Material Flow Prediction in Friction-Stir Spot Welding of Advanced High-Strength Steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miles, M.; Karki, U.; Hovanski, Y.

    2014-09-01

    Friction-stir spot welding (FSSW) has been shown to be capable of joining advanced high-strength steel, with its flexibility in controlling the heat of welding and the resulting microstructure of the joint. This makes FSSW a potential alternative to resistance spot welding if tool life is sufficiently high, and if machine spindle loads are sufficiently low that the process can be implemented on an industrial robot. Robots for spot welding can typically sustain vertical loads of about 8 kN, but FSSW at tool speeds of less than 3000 rpm cause loads that are too high, in the range of 11-14 kN. Therefore, in the current work, tool speeds of 5000 rpm were employed to generate heat more quickly and to reduce welding loads to acceptable levels. Si3N4 tools were used for the welding experiments on 1.2-mm DP 980 steel. The FSSW process was modeled with a finite element approach using the Forge® software. An updated Lagrangian scheme with explicit time integration was employed to predict the flow of the sheet material, subjected to boundary conditions of a rotating tool and a fixed backing plate. Material flow was calculated from a velocity field that is two-dimensional, but heat generated by friction was computed by a novel approach, where the rotational velocity component imparted to the sheet by the tool surface was included in the thermal boundary conditions. An isotropic, viscoplastic Norton-Hoff law was used to compute the material flow stress as a function of strain, strain rate, and temperature. The model predicted welding temperatures to within 4%, and the position of the joint interface to within 10%, of the experimental results.

  15. Temperature and Material Flow Prediction in Friction-Stir Spot Welding of Advanced High-Strength Steel

    SciTech Connect

    Miles, Michael; Karki, U.; Hovanski, Yuri

    2014-10-01

    Friction-stir spot welding (FSSW) has been shown to be capable of joining advanced high-strength steel, with its flexibility in controlling the heat of welding and the resulting microstructure of the joint. This makes FSSW a potential alternative to resistance spot welding if tool life is sufficiently high, and if machine spindle loads are sufficiently low that the process can be implemented on an industrial robot. Robots for spot welding can typically sustain vertical loads of about 8 kN, but FSSW at tool speeds of less than 3000 rpm cause loads that are too high, in the range of 11–14 kN. Therefore, in the current work, tool speeds of 5000 rpm were employed to generate heat more quickly and to reduce welding loads to acceptable levels. Si3N4 tools were used for the welding experiments on 1.2-mm DP 980 steel. The FSSW process was modeled with a finite element approach using the Forge* software. An updated Lagrangian scheme with explicit time integration was employed to predict the flow of the sheet material, subjected to boundary conditions of a rotating tool and a fixed backing plate. Material flow was calculated from a velocity field that is two-dimensional, but heat generated by friction was computed by a novel approach, where the rotational velocity component imparted to the sheet by the tool surface was included in the thermal boundary conditions. An isotropic, viscoplastic Norton-Hoff law was used to compute the material flow stress as a function of strain, strain rate, and temperature. The model predicted welding temperatures to within percent, and the position of the joint interface to within 10 percent, of the experimental results.

  16. Finite difference simulations of seismic wave propagation for understanding earthquake physics and predicting ground motions: Advances and challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aochi, Hideo; Ulrich, Thomas; Ducellier, Ariane; Dupros, Fabrice; Michea, David

    2013-08-01

    Seismic waves radiated from an earthquake propagate in the Earth and the ground shaking is felt and recorded at (or near) the ground surface. Understanding the wave propagation with respect to the Earth's structure and the earthquake mechanisms is one of the main objectives of seismology, and predicting the strong ground shaking for moderate and large earthquakes is essential for quantitative seismic hazard assessment. The finite difference scheme for solving the wave propagation problem in elastic (sometimes anelastic) media has been more widely used since the 1970s than any other numerical methods, because of its simple formulation and implementation, and its easy scalability to large computations. This paper briefly overviews the advances in finite difference simulations, focusing particularly on earthquake mechanics and the resultant wave radiation in the near field. As the finite difference formulation is simple (interpolation is smooth), an easy coupling with other approaches is one of its advantages. A coupling with a boundary integral equation method (BIEM) allows us to simulate complex earthquake source processes.

  17. Iron Levels in Hepatocytes and Portal Tract Cells Predict Progression and Outcome of Patients with Advanced Chronic Hepatitis C1

    PubMed Central

    Lambrecht, Richard W.; Sterling, Richard K.; Naishadham, Deepa; Stoddard, Anne M.; Rogers, Thomas; Morishima, Chihiro; Morgan, Timothy R.; Bonkovsky, Herbert L.

    2011-01-01

    Background & Aims Iron might influence severity and progression of non-hemochromatotic liver diseases. We assessed the relationships between iron, variants in HFE, and progression and outcomes using data from the HALT-C Trial. We determined whether therapy with pegylated interferon (PegIFN) affects iron variables. Methods Participants were randomly assigned to groups given long-term therapy with PegIFN (n=400) or no therapy (n=413) for 3.5 y and followed for up to 8.7 y (median 6.0 y). Associations between patient characteristics and iron variables, at baseline and over time, were made using Kaplan-Meier analyses, Cox regression models, and repeated measures analysis of covariance. Iron was detected by Prussian blue staining. Results Patients with poor outcomes (increase in Child-Turcotte-Pugh score to ≥ 7, development of ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatocellular carcinoma, death) had significantly higher baseline scores for stainable iron in hepatocytes and cells in portal tracts than those without outcomes. Staining for iron in portal triads correlated with lobular and total Ishak inflammatory and fibrosis scores (P<0.0001). High baseline levels of iron in triads increased the risk for poor outcome (hazard ratio=1.35, P=0.02). Iron staining decreased in hepatocytes but increased in portal stromal cells over time (P<0.0001). Serum levels of iron and total iron binding capacity decreased significantly over time (P <0.0001), as did serum ferritin (P=0.0003). Long-term therapy with PegIFN did not affect levels of iron staining. Common variants in HFE did not correlate with outcomes, including development of hepatocellular carcinoma. Conclusions Degree of stainable iron in hepatocytes and portal tract cells predicts progression and clinical and histological outcomes of patients with advanced chronic hepatitis C. Long-term therapy with low-dose PegIFN did not improve outcomes or iron variables. PMID:21335007

  18. Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for improved regional weather prediction and monitoring of greenhouse gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagano, Thomas S.; Chahine, Moustafa T.; Susskind, Joel

    2008-12-01

    Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g. the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on MetOp) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast1. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

  19. Advanced colorectal adenoma related gene expression signature may predict prognostic for colorectal cancer patients with adenoma-carcinoma sequence

    PubMed Central

    Li, Bing; Shi, Xiao-Yu; Liao, Dai-Xiang; Cao, Bang-Rong; Luo, Cheng-Hua; Cheng, Shu-Jun

    2015-01-01

    Background: There are still no absolute parameters predicting progression of adenoma into cancer. The present study aimed to characterize functional differences on the multistep carcinogenetic process from the adenoma-carcinoma sequence. Methods: All samples were collected and mRNA expression profiling was performed by using Agilent Microarray high-throughput gene-chip technology. Then, the characteristics of mRNA expression profiles of adenoma-carcinoma sequence were described with bioinformatics software, and we analyzed the relationship between gene expression profiles of adenoma-adenocarcinoma sequence and clinical prognosis of colorectal cancer. Results: The mRNA expressions of adenoma-carcinoma sequence were significantly different between high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia group and adenocarcinoma group. The biological process of gene ontology function enrichment analysis on differentially expressed genes between high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia group and adenocarcinoma group showed that genes enriched in the extracellular structure organization, skeletal system development, biological adhesion and itself regulated growth regulation, with the P value after FDR correction of less than 0.05. In addition, IPR-related protein mainly focused on the insulin-like growth factor binding proteins. Conclusion: The variable trends of gene expression profiles for adenoma-carcinoma sequence were mainly concentrated in high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia and adenocarcinoma. The differentially expressed genes are significantly correlated between high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia group and adenocarcinoma group. Bioinformatics analysis is an effective way to study the gene expression profiles in the adenoma-carcinoma sequence, and may provide an effective tool to involve colorectal cancer research strategy into colorectal adenoma or advanced adenoma. PMID:26131062

  20. Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for Improved Regional Weather Prediction and Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pagano, Thomas S.; Chahine, Moustafa T.; Susskind, Joel

    2008-01-01

    Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g., the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on Met Op) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1 km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

  1. Systemic inflammatory status at baseline predicts bevacizumab benefit in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Botta, Cirino; Barbieri, Vito; Ciliberto, Domenico; Rossi, Antonio; Rocco, Danilo; Addeo, Raffaele; Staropoli, Nicoletta; Pastina, Pierpaolo; Marvaso, Giulia; Martellucci, Ignazio; Guglielmo, Annamaria; Pirtoli, Luigi; Sperlongano, Pasquale; Gridelli, Cesare; Caraglia, Michele; Tassone, Pierfrancesco; Tagliaferri, Pierosandro; Correale, Pierpaolo

    2013-01-01

    Bevacizumab is a humanized anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody able to produce clinical benefit in advanced non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients when combined to chemotherapy. At present, while there is a rising attention to bevacizumab-related adverse events and costs, no clinical or biological markers have been identified and validated for baseline patient selection. Preclinical findings suggest an important role for myeloid-derived inflammatory cells, such as neutrophils and monocytes, in the development of VEGF-independent angiogenesis. We conducted a retrospective analysis to investigate the role of peripheral blood cells count and of an inflammatory index, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), as predictors of clinical outcome in NSCLC patients treated with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy. One hundred twelve NSCLC patients treated with chemotherapy ± bevacizumab were retrospectively evaluated for the predictive value of clinical or laboratory parameters correlated with inflammatory status. Univariate analysis revealed that a high number of circulating neutrophils and monocytes as well as a high NLR were associated with shorter progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in bevacizumab-treated patients only. We have thus developed a model based on the absence or the presence of at least one of the above-mentioned inflammatory parameters. We found that the absence of all variables strongly correlated with longer PFS and OS (9.0 vs. 7.0 mo, HR: 0.39, p = 0.002; and 20.0 vs. 12.0 mo, HR: 0.29, p < 0.001 respectively) only in NSCLC patients treated with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy. Our results suggest that a baseline systemic inflammatory status is marker of resistance to bevacizumab treatment in NSCLC patients. PMID:23760488

  2. Systemic inflammatory status at baseline predicts bevacizumab benefit in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Botta, Cirino; Barbieri, Vito; Ciliberto, Domenico; Rossi, Antonio; Rocco, Danilo; Addeo, Raffaele; Staropoli, Nicoletta; Pastina, Pierpaolo; Marvaso, Giulia; Martellucci, Ignazio; Guglielmo, Annamaria; Pirtoli, Luigi; Sperlongano, Pasquale; Gridelli, Cesare; Caraglia, Michele; Tassone, Pierfrancesco; Tagliaferri, Pierosandro; Correale, Pierpaolo

    2013-06-01

    Bevacizumab is a humanized anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody able to produce clinical benefit in advanced non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients when combined to chemotherapy. At present, while there is a rising attention to bevacizumab-related adverse events and costs, no clinical or biological markers have been identified and validated for baseline patient selection. Preclinical findings suggest an important role for myeloid-derived inflammatory cells, such as neutrophils and monocytes, in the development of VEGF-independent angiogenesis. We conducted a retrospective analysis to investigate the role of peripheral blood cells count and of an inflammatory index, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), as predictors of clinical outcome in NSCLC patients treated with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy. One hundred and twelve NSCLC patients treated with chemotherapy ± bevacizumab were retrospectively evaluated for the predictive value of clinical or laboratory parameters correlated with inflammatory status. Univariate analysis revealed that a high number of circulating neutrophils and monocytes as well as a high NLR were associated with shorter progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in bevacizumab-treated patients only. We have thus developed a model based on the absence or the presence of at least one of the above-mentioned inflammatory parameters. We found that the absence of all variables strongly correlated with longer PFS and OS (9.0 vs. 7.0 mo, HR: 0.39, p = 0.002; and 20.0 vs. 12.0 mo, HR: 0.29, p < 0.001 respectively) only in NSCLC patients treated with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy. Our results suggest that a baseline systemic inflammatory status is marker of resistance to bevacizumab treatment in NSCLC patients. PMID:23760488

  3. Comparison of the PLTEMP code flow instability predictions with measurements made with electrically heated channels for the advanced test reactor.

    SciTech Connect

    Feldman, E.

    2011-06-09

    When the University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR) was designed in the 1960s the potential for fuel element burnout by a phenomenon referred to at that time as 'autocatalytic vapor binding' was of serious concern. This type of burnout was observed to occur at power levels considerably lower than those that were known to cause critical heat flux. The conversion of the MURR from HEU fuel to LEU fuel will probably require significant design changes, such as changes in coolant channel thicknesses, that could affect the thermal-hydraulic behavior of the reactor core. Therefore, the redesign of the MURR to accommodate an LEU core must address the same issues of fuel element burnout that were of concern in the 1960s. The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) was designed at about the same time as the MURR and had similar concerns with regard to fuel element burnout. These concerns were addressed in the ATR by two groups of thermal-hydraulic tests that employed electrically heated simulated fuel channels. The Croft (1964), Reference 1, tests were performed at ANL. The Waters (1966), Reference 2, tests were performed at Hanford Laboratories in Richland Washington. Since fuel element surface temperatures rise rapidly as burnout conditions are approached, channel surface temperatures were carefully monitored in these experiments. For self-protection, the experimental facilities were designed to cut off the electric power when rapidly increasing surface temperatures were detected. In both the ATR reactor and in the tests with electrically heated channels, the heated length of the fuel plate was 48 inches, which is about twice that of the MURR. Whittle and Forgan (1967) independently conducted tests with electrically heated rectangular channels that were similar to the tests by Croft and by Walters. In the Whittle and Forgan tests the heated length of the channel varied among the tests and was between 16 and 24 inches. Both Waters and Whittle and Forgan show that the cause of the

  4. The weather roulette: assessing the economic value of seasonal wind speed predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christel, Isadora; Cortesi, Nicola; Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Soret, Albert; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

    2016-04-01

    Climate prediction is an emerging and highly innovative research area. For the wind energy sector, predicting the future variability of wind resources over the coming weeks or seasons is especially relevant to quantify operation and maintenance logistic costs or to inform energy trading decision with potential cost savings and/or economic benefits. Recent advances in climate predictions have already shown that probabilistic forecasting can improve the current prediction practices, which are based in the use of retrospective climatology and the assumption that what happened in the past is the best estimation of future conditions. Energy decision makers now have this new set of climate services but, are they willing to use them? Our aim is to properly explain the potential economic benefits of adopting probabilistic predictions, compared with the current practice, by using the weather roulette methodology (Hagedorn & Smith, 2009). This methodology is a diagnostic tool created to inform in a more intuitive and relevant way about the skill and usefulness of a forecast in the decision making process, by providing an economic and financial oriented assessment of the benefits of using a particular forecast system. We have selected a region relevant to the energy stakeholders where the predictions of the EUPORIAS climate service prototype for the energy sector (RESILIENCE) are skillful. In this region, we have applied the weather roulette to compare the overall prediction success of RESILIENCE's predictions and climatology illustrating it as an effective interest rate, an economic term that is easier to understand for energy stakeholders.

  5. Soil-to-plant transfer factors of radioactive Ca, Sm and Pd isotopes: critical assessment of the use of analogies to derive best-estimates from existing non-specific data.

    PubMed

    Henner, Pascale; Hurtevent, Pierre; Thiry, Yves

    2014-10-01

    (45)Ca, (151)Sm and (107)Pd are three radionuclides present in low to intermediate in activity radioactive wastes for which no soil-to-plant Transfer Factors (TF) values are available to be used in biosphere models for Ecological Risk Assessment. In the absence of specific radioecological studies, this work reviews and analyzes the existing literature for stable isotopes of Pd, Sm and Ca in order to derive best estimates for TF values that could be used as Transfer Factors. Alternative methods of extrapolation are also critically assessed. The values have been classified according to climatic zone, plant class and soil type for each element. The overall geometric mean TF values (for all plants and conditions) was calculated as 8.4E-02 for Pd, for which the value of radioRu in TRS-472 is also available. The mean TF for Sm was 4.2E-04. This value was lower than the TF values for radioactive Ce that are proposed as alternative values for Sm in TRS-472. The former may be relevant for long term assessments and the latter could possibly used to describe the short term (151)Sm post-release behaviour. The mean value for Ca is 2.3E-01 but varies considerably among plants of a given class due to the variety of plant Ca uptake behaviors. Alternatively, to limit this variability, Ca data content for dry plant matter, as analyzed using the phylogenetic method, could be used to derive TF values if the conservation of isotopic ratio of (45)Ca to stable Ca in soils and in plants hypothesis is taken into account. The TF for Ca in sub-tropical zones is 10-fold lower than in temperate zones. There is a lot of data available about exchangeable Ca in soil, which mean that we could calculate an available TF. The analysis shows that Ca bioavailability is also a key factor within transfer. PMID:24956582

  6. Linking Complex Problem Solving and General Mental Ability to Career Advancement: Does a Transversal Skill Reveal Incremental Predictive Validity?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mainert, Jakob; Kretzschmar, André; Neubert, Jonas C.; Greiff, Samuel

    2015-01-01

    Transversal skills, such as complex problem solving (CPS) are viewed as central twenty-first-century skills. Recent empirical findings have already supported the importance of CPS for early academic advancement. We wanted to determine whether CPS could also contribute to the understanding of career advancement later in life. Towards this end, we…

  7. The predictability of serum anti-Müllerian level in IVF/ICSI outcomes for patients of advanced reproductive age

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The role of serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) as predictor of in-vitro fertilization outcomes has been much debated. The aim of the present study is to investigate the practicability of combining serum AMH level with biological age as a simple screening method for counseling IVF candidates of advanced reproductive age with potential poor outcomes prior to treatment initiation. Methods A total of 1,538 reference patients and 116 infertile patients aged greater than or equal to 40 years enrolled in IVF/ICSI cycles were recruited in this retrospective analysis. A reference chart of the age-related distribution of serum AMH level for Asian population was first created. IVF/ICSI patients aged greater than or equal to 40 years were then divided into three groups according to the low, middle and high tertiles the serum AMH tertiles derived from the reference population of matching age. The cycle outcomes were analyzed and compared among each individual group. Results For reference subjects aged greater than or equal to 40 years, the serum AMH of the low, middle and high tertiles were equal or lesser than 0.48, 0.49-1.22 and equal or greater than 1.23 ng/mL respectively. IVF/ICSI patients aged greater than or equal to 40 years with AMH levels in the low tertile had the highest cycle cancellation rate (47.6%) with zero clinical pregnancy. The nadir AMH level that has achieved live birth was 0.56 ng/mL, which was equivalent to the 36.4th percentile of AMH level from the age-matched reference group. The optimum cut-off levels of AMH for the prediction of nonpregnancy and cycle cancellation were 1.05 and 0.68 ng/mL, respectively. Conclusions Two criteria: (1) age greater than or equal to 40 years and (2) serum AMH level in the lowest tertile (equal or lesser than 33.3rd percentile) of the matching age group, may be used as markers of futility for counseling IVF/ICSI candidates. PMID:21843363

  8. NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena

    2010-01-01

    AIRS (Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder), was launched, in conjunction with AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) on the NASA polar orbiting research satellite EOS (Earth Observing System) Aqua satellite in May 2002 as a next generation atmospheric sounding system. Atmospheric sounders provide information primarily about the vertical distribution of atmospheric temperature and water vapor distribution. This is achieved by measuring outgoing radiation in discrete channels (spectral intervals) which are sensitive primarily to variations of these geophysical parameters. The primary objectives of AIRS/AMSU were to utilize such information in order to improve the skill of numerical weather prediction as well as to measure climate variability and trends. AIRS is a multi-detector array grating spectrometer with 2378 channels covering the spectral range 650/cm (15 microns) to 2660/cm (3.6 microns) with a resolving power (i/a i) of roughly 1200 where a i is the spectral channel bandpass. Atmospheric temperature profile can be determined from channel observations taken within the 15 micron (the long-wave CO2 absorption band) and within the 4.2 micron (the short-wave CO2 absorption band). Radiances in these (and all other) spectral intervals in the infrared are also sensitive to the presence of clouds in the instrument?s field of view (FOV), which are present about 95% of the time. AIRS was designed so as to allow for the ability to produce accurate Quality Controlled atmospheric soundings under most cloud conditions. This was achieved by having 1) extremely low channel noise values in the shortwave portion of the spectrum and 2) a very flat spatial response function within a channel?s FOV. IASI, the high spectral resolution IR interferometer flying on the European METOP satellite, does not contain either of these important characteristics. The AIRS instrument was also designed to be extremely stabile with regard to its spectral radiometric characteristics, which is

  9. Integrative sensing and prediction of urban water for sustainable cities (iSPUW)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, D. J.; Fang, N. Z.; Yu, X.; Zink, M.; Gao, J.; Kerkez, B.

    2014-12-01

    We describe a newly launched project in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) area to develop a cyber-physical prototype system that integrates advanced sensing, modeling and prediction of urban water, to support its early adoption by a spectrum of users and stakeholders, and to educate a new generation of future sustainability scientists and engineers. The project utilizes the very high-resolution precipitation and other sensing capabilities uniquely available in DFW as well as crowdsourcing and cloud computing to advance understanding of the urban water cycle and to improve urban sustainability from transient shocks of heavy-to-extreme precipitation under climate change and urbanization. All available water information from observations and models will be fused objectively via advanced data assimilation to produce the best estimate of the state of the uncertain system. Modeling, prediction and decision support tools will be developed in the ensemble framework to increase the information content of the analysis and prediction and to support risk-based decision making.

  10. Prediction of plasma-induced damage distribution during silicon nitride etching using advanced three-dimensional voxel model

    SciTech Connect

    Kuboi, Nobuyuki Tatsumi, Tetsuya; Kinoshita, Takashi; Shigetoshi, Takushi; Fukasawa, Masanaga; Komachi, Jun; Ansai, Hisahiro

    2015-11-15

    The authors modeled SiN film etching with hydrofluorocarbon (CH{sub x}F{sub y}/Ar/O{sub 2}) plasma considering physical (ion bombardment) and chemical reactions in detail, including the reactivity of radicals (C, F, O, N, and H), the area ratio of Si dangling bonds, the outflux of N and H, the dependence of the H/N ratio on the polymer layer, and generation of by-products (HCN, C{sub 2}N{sub 2}, NH, HF, OH, and CH, in addition to CO, CF{sub 2}, SiF{sub 2}, and SiF{sub 4}) as ion assistance process parameters for the first time. The model was consistent with the measured C-F polymer layer thickness, etch rate, and selectivity dependence on process variation for SiN, SiO{sub 2}, and Si film etching. To analyze the three-dimensional (3D) damage distribution affected by the etched profile, the authors developed an advanced 3D voxel model that can predict the time-evolution of the etched profile and damage distribution. The model includes some new concepts for gas transportation in the pattern using a fluid model and the property of voxels called “smart voxels,” which contain details of the history of the etching situation. Using this 3D model, the authors demonstrated metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor SiN side-wall etching that consisted of the main-etch step with CF{sub 4}/Ar/O{sub 2} plasma and an over-etch step with CH{sub 3}F/Ar/O{sub 2} plasma under the assumption of a realistic process and pattern size. A large amount of Si damage induced by irradiated hydrogen occurred in the source/drain region, a Si recess depth of 5 nm was generated, and the dislocated Si was distributed in a 10 nm deeper region than the Si recess, which was consistent with experimental data for a capacitively coupled plasma. An especially large amount of Si damage was also found at the bottom edge region of the metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistors. Furthermore, our simulation results for bulk fin-type field-effect transistor side-wall etching

  11. The discriminatory capability of existing scores to predict advanced colorectal neoplasia: a prospective colonoscopy study of 5,899 screening participants

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Martin C. S.; Ching, Jessica Y. L.; Ng, Simpson; Lam, Thomas Y. T.; Luk, Arthur K. C.; Wong, Sunny H.; Ng, Siew C.; Ng, Simon S. M.; Wu, Justin C. Y.; Chan, Francis K. L.; Sung, Joseph J. Y.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of seven existing risk scoring systems in predicting advanced colorectal neoplasia in an asymptomatic Chinese cohort. We prospectively recruited 5,899 Chinese subjects aged 50–70 years in a colonoscopy screening programme(2008–2014). Scoring systems under evaluation included two scoring tools from the US; one each from Spain, Germany, and Poland; the Korean Colorectal Screening(KCS) scores; and the modified Asia Pacific Colorectal Screening(APCS) scores. The c-statistics, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values(PPVs), and negative predictive values(NPVs) of these systems were evaluated. The resources required were estimated based on the Number Needed to Screen(NNS) and the Number Needed to Refer for colonoscopy(NNR). Advanced neoplasia was detected in 364 (6.2%) subjects. The German system referred the least proportion of subjects (11.2%) for colonoscopy, whilst the KCS scoring system referred the highest (27.4%). The c-statistics of all systems ranged from 0.56–0.65, with sensitivities ranging from 0.04–0.44 and specificities from 0.74–0.99. The modified APCS scoring system had the highest c-statistics (0.65, 95% C.I. 0.58–0.72). The NNS (12–19) and NNR (5-10) were similar among the scoring systems. The existing scoring systems have variable capability to predict advanced neoplasia among asymptomatic Chinese subjects, and further external validation should be performed. PMID:26838178

  12. MicroRNA Expression Profiling of Peripheral Blood Samples Predicts Resistance to First-line Sunitinib in Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma Patients12

    PubMed Central

    Gámez-Pozo, Angelo; Antón-Aparicio, Luis M; Bayona, Cristina; Borrega, Pablo; Gallegos Sancho, María I; García-Domínguez, Rocío; de Portugal, Teresa; Ramos-Vázquez, Manuel; Pérez-Carrión, Ramón; Bolós, María V; Madero, Rosario; Sánchez-Navarro, Iker; Fresno Vara, Juan A; Arranz, Enrique Espinosa

    2012-01-01

    Anti-angiogenic therapy benefits many patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC), but there is still a need for predictive markers that help in selecting the best therapy for individual patients. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) regulate cancer cell behavior and may be attractive biomarkers for prognosis and prediction of response. Forty-four patients with RCC were recruited into this observational prospective study conducted in nine Spanish institutions. Peripheral blood samples were taken before initiation of therapy and 14 days later in patients receiving first-line therapy with sunitinib for advanced RCC. miRNA expression in peripheral blood was assessed using microarrays and L2 boosting was applied to filtered miRNA expression data. Several models predicting poor and prolonged response to sunitinib were constructed and evaluated by binary logistic regression. Blood samples from 38 patients and 287 miRNAs were evaluated. Twenty-eight miRNAs of the 287 were related to poor response and 23 of the 287 were related to prolonged response to sunitinib treatment. Predictive models identified populations with differences in the established end points. In the poor response group, median time to progression was 3.5 months and the overall survival was 8.5, whereas in the prolonged response group these values were 24 and 29.5 months, respectively. Ontology analyses pointed out to cancer-related pathways, such angiogenesis and apoptosis. miRNA expression signatures, measured in peripheral blood, may stratify patients with advanced RCC according to their response to first-line therapy with sunitinib, improving diagnostic accuracy. After proper validation, these signatures could be used to tailor therapy in this setting. PMID:23308047

  13. Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bin; Lee, June-Yi; Kang, In-Sik; Shukla, J.; Park, C.-K.; Kumar, A.; Schemm, J.; Cocke, S.; Kug, J.-S.; Luo, J.-J.; Zhou, T.; Wang, B.; Fu, X.; Yun, W.-T.; Alves, O.; Jin, E. K.; Kinter, J.; Kirtman, B.; Krishnamurti, T.; Lau, N. C.; Lau, W.; Liu, P.; Pegion, P.; Rosati, T.; Schubert, S.; Stern, W.; Suarez, M.; Yamagata, T.

    2009-07-01

    We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980-2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981-2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface

  14. Improved NASA-ANOPP Noise Prediction Computer Code for Advanced Subsonic Propulsion Systems. Volume 2; Fan Suppression Model Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kontos, Karen B.; Kraft, Robert E.; Gliebe, Philip R.

    1996-01-01

    The Aircraft Noise Predication Program (ANOPP) is an industry-wide tool used to predict turbofan engine flyover noise in system noise optimization studies. Its goal is to provide the best currently available methods for source noise prediction. As part of a program to improve the Heidmann fan noise model, models for fan inlet and fan exhaust noise suppression estimation that are based on simple engine and acoustic geometry inputs have been developed. The models can be used to predict sound power level suppression and sound pressure level suppression at a position specified relative to the engine inlet.

  15. Comparison of five models for end-stage liver disease in predicting the survival rate of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Hong, Ying-Fen; Chen, Zhan-Hong; Ma, Xiao-Kun; Li, Xing; Wu, Dong-Hao; Chen, Jie; Dong, Min; Wei, Li; Wang, Tian-Tian; Ruan, Dan-Yun; Lin, Ze-Xiao; Wen, Jing-Yun; Lin, Qu; Jia, Chang-Chang; Wu, Xiang-Yuan

    2016-04-01

    Prognosis of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is under expectation. Life expectancy more than 3 months is one inclusion criteria for molecular targeted drugs in clinical trials. The main purpose of this research is to compare Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and four MELD-based prognostic models in predicting the survival rate of advanced HCC patients. One hundred eighty-three patients with advanced HCC who were not amendable to standard anti-tumor therapy were retrospectively analyzed. Data were collected to classify patients according to MELD, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with the incorporation of serum sodium (MELD-NA), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to ascites and sodium (MELD-AS), integrated Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (iMELD), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to sodium (MESO) scores at diagnosis. 1-, 3-, and 6-month survivals were the end points used in the analysis. When predicting 1-month survival, MELD-AS, MELD, and MESO were the top 3 ranking staging systems. When predicting 3-month survival, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of MELD-AS is significantly higher than that of the other models (P < 0.05). When predicting 6-month survival, AUCs of MELD-AS and MELD-NA are significantly higher than those of the other models (P < 0.05). Cutoff point of MELD-AS is 23.11 with 40.5 % sensitivity and 93.8 % specificity at 1 month, 9.5 with 76.9 % sensitivity and 59.5 % specificity at 3 months, and 18.5 with 27.0 % sensitivity and 89.1 % specificity at 6 months. MELD-based scores of death group are significantly higher than those of survivors within 1 and 3 months (P < 0.001). Independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate analysis included persistent ascites, serum sodium, and thrombosis. MELD-AS is the best model in the prediction of short and intermediate survival among the five models for end-stage liver disease analyzed for Chinese advanced HCC patients

  16. Advanced prediction technique for the low speed aerodynamics of V/STOL aircraft. Volume 1: Technical discussion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beatty, T. D.; Worthey, M. K.

    1984-01-01

    The V/STOL Aircraft Propulsive Effects (VAPE) computerized prediction method is evaluated. The program analyzes viscous effects, various jet, inlet, and Short TakeOff and Landing (STOL) models, and examines the aerodynamic configurations of V/STOL aircraft.

  17. An Advanced Analytical Chemistry Experiment Using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry, MATLAB, and Chemometrics to Predict Biodiesel Blend Percent Composition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pierce, Karisa M.; Schale, Stephen P.; Le, Trang M.; Larson, Joel C.

    2011-01-01

    We present a laboratory experiment for an advanced analytical chemistry course where we first focus on the chemometric technique partial least-squares (PLS) analysis applied to one-dimensional (1D) total-ion-current gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-TIC) separations of biodiesel blends. Then, we focus on n-way PLS (n-PLS) applied to…

  18. Predictive potential role of GSTs gene polymorphisms in the treatment outcome of advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Liu, Kaixiong; Lin, Qichang; Ding, Haibo; Jin, Yongxu; Chen, Gongping

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate the possible association between GSTP1, GSTM1, and GSTT1 polymorphisms and treatment outcome of advanced NSCLC. Between October 2009 and October 2011, a total of 308 patients of NSCLC on stage IIIA, IIIB or IV, treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy were included. Polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism was used to genotype the GSTP1 and GSTM1, and GSTT1 polymorphisms. We found that the IIe/Val and Val/Val genotypes of GSTP1 showed more CR+PR to chemotherapy in advanced NSCLC when compared with IIe/IIe genotype, and the Ors (95% CI) were 0.37 (0.18-0.71) and 0.15 (0.07-0.38). The IIe/Val and Val/Val genotypes of GSTP1 were associated with longer overall survival of advanced NSCLC when compared with the IIe/IIe genotype (For IIe/Val vs IIe/IIe, 37.63 ± 2.01 months vs 30.25 ± 2.06 months; for Val/Val vs IIe/IIe, 39.84 ± 3.36 months vs 30.25 ± 2.06 months). In the Cox proportional hazards model, the IIe/Val and Val/Val genotypes significantly decreased risk of death from all causes in patients with advanced NSCLC, and the HRs (95% CIs) were 0.51 (0.28-0.94) and 0.35 (0.16-0.78), respectively. We found that the GSTP1 polymorphisms might affect the clinical outcome of patients with advanced NSCLC, and our results could help us to facilitate therapeutic decision for individualized therapy. PMID:26885019

  19. New utility of an old marker: serum low-density lipoprotein predicts histopathological response of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in locally advanced gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Ji-Chun; Guo, Ju-Feng; Teng, Rong-Yue; Wang, Qin-Chuan; Wang, Ji; Wei, Qun; Li, Zi-Duo; Shen, Jian-Guo; Wang, Lin-Bo

    2016-01-01

    Background Although the correlation between metabolic abnormality and gastric cancer has been extensively investigated, the question of whether metabolic parameters might influence the efficacy of chemotherapy in locally advanced gastric cancer is still unanswered. In our present study, we investigated the relationship between serum fasting glucose, lipid levels, and histopathological response of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in locally advanced gastric cancers. Patients and methods A total of 128 patients were identified from a prospectively maintained database of patients with locally advanced gastric cancer who received NAC between July 2004 and December 2012. Histopathological response after NAC was analyzed according to Becker’s tumor-regression grade. Univariate analyses and multivariable regression analyses were performed to determine the correlation between tumor size, differentiation, fasting glucose, lipid levels, and tumor histopathological response after NAC. Results Univariate analysis revealed that low-density lipoprotein level and total cholesterol, as well as tumor size and differentiation, correlated significantly with histopathological response. Low-density lipoprotein levels and tumor size were found to be independent predictors for histopathological response, according to multivariable regression analyses. Conclusion In this observational, hypothesis-generating study, serum low-density lipoprotein measurement was found to be useful in predicting chemosensitivity to locally advanced gastric cancer patients undergoing NAC. Incorporation of serum low-density lipoprotein levels into individualized treatment protocols could be considered in clinical practice. PMID:27574445

  20. Development of a numerical scheme to predict geomagnetic storms after intense solar events and geomagnetic activity 27 days in advance. Final report, 6 Aug 86-16 Nov 90

    SciTech Connect

    Akasofu, S.I.; Lee, L.H.

    1991-02-01

    The modern geomagnetic storm prediction scheme should be based on a numerical simulation method, rather than on a statistical result. Furthermore, the scheme should be able to predict the geomagnetic storm indices, such as the Dst and AE indices, as a function of time. By recognizing that geomagnetic storms are powered by the solar wind-magnetosphere generator and that its power is given in terms of the solar wind speed, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and polar angle, the authors have made a major advance in predicting both flare-induced storms and recurrent storms. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the prediction scheme can be calibrated using the interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observation, when the solar disturbance advances about half-way to the earth. It is shown, however, that we are still far from a reliable prediction scheme. The prediction of the IMF polar angle requires future advance in understanding characteristics of magnetic clouds.

  1. Nomogram basing pre-treatment parameters predicting early response for locally advanced rectal cancer with neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone: a subgroup efficacy analysis of FOWARC study

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Huabin; Lan, Ping; Wang, Lei; Huang, Meijin; Kang, Liang; Wu, Xiaojian; Wang, Hui; Ling, Jiayu; Xiao, Jian; Wang, Jianping; Deng, Yanhong

    2016-01-01

    Objective To develop an accurate model with pre-treatment parameters to predict tumor regression and down-staging in locally advanced rectal cancer patients, basing the cohort of preoperative chemotherapy alone in FOWARC study. Patients and Methods From Jan 2011 to Feb 2015, complete data was available for 137 out of 165 patients who received preoperative chemotherapy alone. All pre-treatment clinical parameters were collected. Tumor regression grade (TRG) 0-1 was defined as good regression, and pathological TNM stage (ypTNM) 0-I after neoadjuvant treatment was defined as good down-staging. Nomogram was established to predict tumor regression and down-staging. The predictive performance of the model was assessed with concordance index and calibration plots. Results Of the 137 patients, 10 had TRG 0 (complete regression); 32 patients, TRG 1; and 95 patients, TRG 2 and 3 (poor regression); 56 (40.9%) patients were classified as good down-staging with ypTNM stage 0-I. The predictive nomograms were developed to predict the probability of TRG 0-1 and good down-staging with a C-index of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.604-0.797) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.681-0.844). Calibration plots showed good statistical performance on internal validation. Predictive factors in the models included tumor length, tumor circumferential extent, age, and ApoA1. Conclusions The model based on available clinical parameters could accurately predict early efficacy with neoadjuvant mFOLFOX6 chemotherapy alone, which might help in patient selection for optimized treatment. PMID:26646794

  2. Predicting the Inflow Distortion Tone Noise of the NASA Glenn Advanced Noise Control Fan with a Combined Quadrupole-Dipole Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koch, L. Danielle

    2012-01-01

    A combined quadrupole-dipole model of fan inflow distortion tone noise has been extended to calculate tone sound power levels generated by obstructions arranged in circumferentially asymmetric locations upstream of a rotor. Trends in calculated sound power level agreed well with measurements from tests conducted in 2007 in the NASA Glenn Advanced Noise Control Fan. Calculated values of sound power levels radiated upstream were demonstrated to be sensitive to the accuracy of the modeled wakes from the cylindrical rods that were placed upstream of the fan to distort the inflow. Results indicate a continued need to obtain accurate aerodynamic predictions and measurements at the fan inlet plane as engineers work towards developing fan inflow distortion tone noise prediction tools.

  3. Feeling the Pulse of the Stratosphere: An Emerging Opportunity for Predicting Continental-Scale Cold Air Outbreaks One Month in Advance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Ming

    2016-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as cold air outbreaks (CAOs) pose great threats to human life and socioeconomic well-being of the modern society. In the past, our capability to predict their occurrences is constrained by the 2-week predictability limit for weather. We demonstrate here for the first time that a rapid increase of air mass transported into the polar stratosphere, referred to as "the pulse of the stratosphere (PULSE)", can often be predicted with a useful skill 4-6 weeks in advance by operational forecast models. We further show that the probability of the occurrence of continental-scale CAOs in mid-latitudes increases substantially above the normal condition within a short time period from one week before to 1‑2 weeks after the peak day of a PULSE event. In particular, we reveal that the three massive CAOs over North America in January and February of 2014 were preceded by three episodes of extreme mass transport into the polar stratosphere with peak intensities reaching a trillion tons per day, twice of that on an average winter day. Therefore, our capability to predict the PULSEs with operational forecast models, in conjunction with its linkage to continental-scale CAOs, opens up a new opportunity for 30‑day forecasts of continental-scale CAOs, such as those occurring over North America in the 2013-14 winter. A real time forecast experiment inaugurated in the winter of 2014-15 has given support to the idea that it is feasible to forecast CAOs one month in advance.

  4. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 1: Theoretical development and application to yearly predictions for selected cities in the United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1986-01-01

    A rain attenuation prediction model is described for use in calculating satellite communication link availability for any specific location in the world that is characterized by an extended record of rainfall. Such a formalism is necessary for the accurate assessment of such availability predictions in the case of the small user-terminal concept of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The model employs the theory of extreme value statistics to generate the necessary statistical rainrate parameters from rain data in the form compiled by the National Weather Service. These location dependent rain statistics are then applied to a rain attenuation model to obtain a yearly prediction of the occurrence of attenuation on any satellite link at that location. The predictions of this model are compared to those of the Crane Two-Component Rain Model and some empirical data and found to be very good. The model is then used to calculate rain attenuation statistics at 59 locations in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) for the 20 GHz downlinks and 30 GHz uplinks of the proposed ACTS system. The flexibility of this modeling formalism is such that it allows a complete and unified treatment of the temporal aspects of rain attenuation that leads to the design of an optimum stochastic power control algorithm, the purpose of which is to efficiently counter such rain fades on a satellite link.

  5. A Global and Regional Multi-scale Advanced Prediction Model System(graps) Part I: A Scientific Design of A Nh/h Multi-scale Dynamic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Dehui; Xue Xuesheng Yang, Jishan; Zhang, Hongliang; Hu, Jianglin; Jin, Zhiyan; Huang, Liping; Wu, Xiangjun

    With social progress and economic development, the requirement for providing much longer, more detailed and more accurate meteorological forecasting services with higher resolution, including climate, synoptic and meso-scale weather forecasts, and air pollution as well as forest fire warning is increased significantly. On the other hand, to meet all needs of services, the numerical weather prediction models will become more and more complicated, and more and more "huge". The costs for improvement and maintenance will be expensive if several NWP systems are to be developed, improved and maintained at the same time and at the same center! In this paper, a Global and Regional multi-scale Advanced Prediction model System (GRAPS) was designed to meet all needs of short, medium and long range weather forecasts as well as environmental predictions. The main features of the GRAPS model include (1) full latitude-longitude grid points; (2) multi-scale in an unified model; (3) hydrostatic or non hydrostatic hypotheses optionally; (4) variable or uniform resolution in option; (5) possibility to run in regional or global mode; (6) finite difference in the vertical discretization in option; (7) semi-implicit and semi - Lagrangian scheme; (8) height terrain-following coordinate; (9) Arakawa-C variable staggering; (10) Cascade-interpolation; (11) quasi-conservation of semi-Lagrangian advection scheme combined Staniforth (1992) and Preistley (1993). Key Words: numerical weather prediction, grid point model, non-hydrostatic, variable resolution, vertical spectral formulation

  6. Commercial-Scale Performance Predictions for High-Temperature Electrolysis Plants Coupled to Three Advanced Reactor Types

    SciTech Connect

    M. G. McKellar; J. E. O'Brien; J. S. Herring

    2007-09-01

    This report presents results of system analyses that have been developed to assess the hydrogen production performance of commercial-scale high-temperature electrolysis (HTE) plants driven by three different advanced reactor – power-cycle combinations: a high-temperature helium cooled reactor coupled to a direct Brayton power cycle, a supercritical CO2-cooled reactor coupled to a direct recompression cycle, and a sodium-cooled fast reactor coupled to a Rankine cycle. The system analyses were performed using UniSim software. The work described in this report represents a refinement of previous analyses in that the process flow diagrams include realistic representations of the three advanced reactors directly coupled to the power cycles and integrated with the high-temperature electrolysis process loops. In addition, this report includes parametric studies in which the performance of each HTE concept is determined over a wide range of operating conditions. Results of the study indicate that overall thermal-to- hydrogen production efficiencies (based on the low heating value of the produced hydrogen) in the 45 - 50% range can be achieved at reasonable production rates with the high-temperature helium cooled reactor concept, 42 - 44% with the supercritical CO2-cooled reactor and about 33 - 34% with the sodium-cooled reactor.

  7. Numerical Modeling for Springback Predictions by Considering the Variations of Elastic Modulus in Stamping Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Hyunok; Kimchi, Menachem

    2011-08-01

    This paper presents a numerical modeling approach for predicting springback by considering the variations of elastic modulus on springback in stamping AHSS. Various stamping tests and finite-element method (FEM) simulation codes were used in this study. The cyclic loading-unloading tensile tests were conducted to determine the variations of elastic modulus for dual-phase (DP) 780 sheet steel. The biaxial bulge test was used to obtain plastic flow stress data. The non-linear reduction of elastic modulus for increasing the plastic strain was formulated by using the Yoshida model that was implemented in FEM simulations for springback. To understand the effects of material properties on springback, experiments were conducted with a simple geometry such as U-shape bending and the more complex geometry such as the curved flanging and S-rail stamping. Different measurement methods were used to confirm the final part geometry. Two different commercial FEM codes, LS-DYNA and DEFORM, were used to compare the experiments. The variable elastic modulus improved springback predictions in U-shape bending and curved flanging tests compared to FEM with the constant elastic modulus. However, in S-rail stamping tests, both FEM models with the isotropic hardening model showed limitations in predicting the sidewall curl of the S-rail part after springback. To consider the kinematic hardening and Bauschinger effects that result from material bending-unbending in S-rail stamping, the Yoshida model was used for FEM simulation of S-rail stamping and springback. The FEM predictions showed good improvement in correlating with experiments.

  8. The Predicted Impact of Ipilimumab Usage on Survival in Previously Treated Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma in the UK

    PubMed Central

    Larkin, James; Hatswell, Anthony J.; Nathan, Paul; Lebmeier, Maximilian; Lee, Dawn

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluating long-term prognosis is important for physicians, patients and payers. This study reports the results of a model developed to predict long-term survival for UK patients receiving second-line ipilimumab. Methods MDX010-20 trial data were used to predict survival for ipilimumab versus UK best supportive care. Two aspects of this analysis required novel approaches: 1) The overall survival Kaplan–Meier data shape is unusual: an initial steep decline is observed before a ‘plateau’. 2) The need to extrapolate beyond the trial end (4.6 years). Based upon UK clinician advice, a three-part curve fit was used: from 0–1.5 years, Kaplan–Meier data from the trial; from 1.5–5 years, standard parametric curve fits; after 5 years, long-term data from the American Joint Committee on Cancer registry. Results This approach provided good internal validity: low mean absolute error and good match to median and mean trial data. Lifetime predicted means were 2.77 years for ipilimumab and 1.07 for best supportive care, driven by increased long-term survival with ipilimumab. Conclusion To understand the full benefit of treatment and to meet reimbursement requirements, accurate estimation of treatment benefit is key. Models, such as the one presented, can be used to extrapolate beyond trials. PMID:26700304

  9. P11: 18FDG-PET/CT for early prediction of response to first line platinum chemotherapy in advanced thymic epithelial tumors

    PubMed Central

    Palmieri, Giovannella; Ottaviano, Margaret; Del Vecchio, Silvana; Segreto, Sabrina; Tucci, Irene; Damiano, Vincenzo

    2015-01-01

    Background To investigate the value of the metabolic tumor response assessed with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET), compared with clinicobiological markers, to predict the response disease to first line platinum based chemotherapy in advanced thymic epithelial tumors (TETs). Methods Twenty patients with diagnosis of TET and stage of disease III and IV sec, Masaoka-Koga, were retrospectively included in this monocentric study. Different pre-treatment clinical, biological and pathological parameters, including histotype sec, WHO 2004 and stage of disease sec, Masaoka-Koga were assessed. Tumor glucose metabolism at baseline and its change after the first line platinum based chemotherapy (from 4 to 6 cycles) were assessed using FDG-PET, moreover the response disease was assessed using total body CT scan for the evaluation of RECIST criteria 1.1. Results Twelve patients had an objective response to the first line platinum based chemotherapy according RECIST criteria 1.1 and all of them started with a SUVmax at baseline major than 5, indeed the other eight patients, non-responders to chemotherapy, had a SUVmax at baseline minor than 5. Conclusions It is important to define the chemosensitivity of advanced TETs early. Combining bio-pathological parameters with the metabolism at baseline assessed with FDG-PET can help the physician to early predict the probability of obtaining a disease response to first line platinum based chemotherapy. The SUVmax cut off of 5 at 18FDG-PET/CT performed at baseline treatment might be a new parameter for choosing the most powerful first line of chemotherapy. Given these results, further prospective studies are needed to establish a new first line therapy in advanced TETs with a low SUVmax at baseline, non-responders to conventional chemotherapy.

  10. Prediction of geomagnetic reversals using low-dimensional dynamical models and advanced data assimilation: a feasibility study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fournier, A.; Morzfeld, M.; Hulot, G.

    2013-12-01

    For a suitable choice of parameters, the system of three ordinary differential equations (ODE) presented by Gissinger [1] was shown to exhibit chaotic reversals whose statistics compared well with those from the paleomagnetic record. In order to further assess the geophysical relevance of this low-dimensional model, we resort to data assimilation methods to calibrate it using reconstructions of the fluctuation of the virtual axial dipole moment spanning the past 2 millions years. Moreover, we test to which extent a properly calibrated model could possibly be used to predict a reversal of the geomagnetic field. We calibrate the ODE model to the geomagnetic field over the past 2 Ma using the SINT data set of Valet et al. [2]. To this end, we consider four data assimilation algorithms: the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a variational method and two Monte Carlo (MC) schemes, prior importance sampling and implicit sampling. We observe that EnKF performs poorly and that prior importance sampling is inefficient. We obtain the most accurate reconstructions of the geomagnetic data using implicit sampling with five data points per assimilation sweep (of duration 5 kyr). The variational scheme performs equally well, but it does not provide us with quantitative information about the uncertainty of the estimates, which makes this method difficult to use for robust prediction under uncertainty. A calibration of the model using the PADM2M data set of Ziegler et al. [3] confirms these findings. We study the predictive capability of the ODE model using statistics computed from synthetic data experiments. For each experiment, we produce 2 Myr of synthetic data (with error levels similar to the ones found in real data), then calibrate the model to this record and then check if this calibrated model can correctly and reliably predict a reversal within the next 10 kyr (say). By performing 100 such experiments, we can assess how reliably our calibrated model can predict a (non

  11. Optimal tumor shrinkage predicts long-term outcome in advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with target therapy

    PubMed Central

    He, Xiaobo; Zhang, Yang; Ma, Yuxiang; Zhou, Ting; Zhang, Jianwei; Hong, Shaodong; Sheng, Jin; Zhang, Zhonghan; Yang, Yunpeng; Huang, Yan; Zhang, Li; Zhao, Hongyun

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are used as standard therapies for advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with EGFR mutation positive. Because these targeted therapies could cause tumor necrosis and shrinkage, the purpose of the study is to search for a value of optimal tumor shrinkage as an appropriate indicator of outcome for advanced NSCLC. A total of 88 NSCLC enrollees of 3 clinical trials (IRESSA registration clinical trial, TRUST study and ZD6474 study), who received Gefitinib (250 mg, QD), Erlotinib (150 mg, QD), and ZD6474 (100 mg, QD), respectively, during December 2003 and October 2007, were retrospectively analyzed. The response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST) were used to identify responders, who had complete response (CR) or partial responses (PR) and nonresponders who had stable disease (SD) or progressive disease (PD). Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was used to find the optimal tumor shrinkage as an indicator for tumor therapeutic outcome. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to compare the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) between responders and nonresponders stratified based on radiologic criteria. Among the 88 NSCLC patients, 26 were responders and 62 were nonresponders based on RECIST 1.0. ROC indicated that 8.32% tumor diameter shrinkage in the sum of the longest tumor diameter (SLD) was the cutoff point of tumor shrinkage outcomes, resulting in 46 responders (≤8.32%) and 42 nonresponders (≥8.32%). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that (1) the responders (≤8.32%) and nonresponders (≥ −8.32%) were significantly different in median PFS (13.40 vs 1.17 months, P < 0.001) and OS (19.80 vs 7.90 months, P < 0.001) and (2) –8.32% in SLD could be used as the optimal threshold for PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 8.11, 95% CI, 3.75 to 17.51, P < 0.001) and OS

  12. Slow Crack Growth Analysis of Advanced Structural Ceramics Under Combined Loading Conditions: Damage Assessment in Life Prediction Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2000-01-01

    Slow crack growth analysis was performed with three different loading histories including constant stress-rate/constant stress-rate testing (Case I loading), constant stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case II loading), and cyclic stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case III loading). Strength degradation due to slow crack growth arid/or damage accumulation was determined numerically as a Function of percentage of interruption time between the two loading sequences for a given loading history. The numerical solutions were examined with the experimental data determined at elevated temperatures using four different advanced ceramic materials, two silicon nitrides, one silicon carbide and one alumina for the Case I loading history, and alumina for the Case II loading history. The numerical solutions were in reasonable agreement with the experimental data, indicating that notwithstanding some degree of creep deformation presented for some test materials slow crack growth was a governing mechanism associated with failure for all the test material&

  13. Slow Crack Growth Analysis of Advanced Structural Ceramics Under Combined Loading Conditions: Damage Assessment in Life Prediction Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, S. R.; Gyekenyesi, J. P.

    2001-01-01

    Slow crack growth analysis was performed with three different loading histories including constant stress- rate/constant stress-rate testing (Case I loading), constant stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case II loading), and cyclic stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case III loading). Strength degradation due to slow crack growth and/or damage accumulation was determined numerically as a function of percentage of interruption time between the two loading sequences for a given loading history. The numerical solutions were examined with the experimental data determined at elevated temperatures using four different advanced ceramic materials, two silicon nitrides, one silicon carbide and one alumina for the Case I loading history, and alumina for the Case II loading history. The numerical solutions were in reasonable agreement with the experimental data, indicating that notwithstanding some degree of creep deformation presented for some test materials slow crack growth was a governing mechanism associated with failure for all the rest materials.

  14. Slow Crack Growth Analysis of Advanced Structural Ceramics Under Combined Loading Conditions: Damage Assessment in Life Prediction Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2000-01-01

    Slow crack growth analysis was performed with three different loading histories including constant stress-rate/constant stress-rate testing (Case 1 loading), constant stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case 2 loading), and cyclic stress/constant stress-rate testing (Case 2 loading). Strength degradation due to slow crack growth and/or damage accumulation was determined numerically as a function of percentage of interruption time between the two loading sequences for a given loading history. The numerical solutions were examined with the experimental data determined at elevated temperatures using four different advanced ceramic materials, two silicon nitrides, one silicon carbide and one alumina for the Case 1 loading history, and alumina for the Case 3 loading history. The numerical solutions were in reasonable agreement with the experimental data, indicating that notwithstanding some degree of creep deformation presented for some test materials slow crack growth was a governing mechanism associated with failure for all the test materials.

  15. One-Way Coupling of an Advanced CFD Multi-Physics Model to FEA for Predicting Stress-Strain in the Solidifying Shell during Continuous Casting of Steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svensson, Johan; Ramírez López, Pavel E.; Jalali, Pooria N.; Cervantes, Michel

    2015-06-01

    One of the main targets for Continuous Casting (CC) modelling is the actual prediction of defects during transient events. However, the majority of CC models are based on a statistical approach towards flow and powder performance, which is unable to capture the subtleties of small variations in casting conditions during real industrial operation or the combined effects of such changes leading eventually to defects. An advanced Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model; which accounts for transient changes on lubrication during casting due to turbulent flow dynamics and mould oscillation has been presented on MCWASP XIV (Austria) to address these issues. The model has been successfully applied to the industrial environment to tackle typical problems such as lack of lubrication or unstable flows. However, a direct application to cracking had proven elusive. The present paper describes how results from this advanced CFD-CC model have been successfully coupled to structural Finite Element Analysis (FEA) for prediction of stress-strains as a function of irregular lubrication conditions in the mould. The main challenge for coupling was the extraction of the solidified shell from CFD calculations (carried out with a hybrid structured mesh) and creating a geometry by using iso-surfaces, re-meshing and mapping loads (e.g. temperature, pressure and external body forces), which served as input to mechanical stress-strain calculations. Preliminary results for CC of slabs show that the temperature distribution within the shell causes shrinkage and thermal deformation; which are in turn, the main source of stress. Results also show reasonable stress levels of 10-20 MPa in regions, where the shell is thin and exposed to large temperature gradients. Finally, predictions are in good agreement with prior works where stresses indicate compression at the slab surface, while tension is observed at the interior; generating a characteristic stress-strain state during solidification in CC.

  16. The eTOX Data-Sharing Project to Advance in Silico Drug-Induced Toxicity Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Cases, Montserrat; Briggs, Katharine; Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Pognan, François; Marc, Philippe; Kleinöder, Thomas; Schwab, Christof H.; Pastor, Manuel; Wichard, Jörg; Sanz, Ferran

    2014-01-01

    The high-quality in vivo preclinical safety data produced by the pharmaceutical industry during drug development, which follows numerous strict guidelines, are mostly not available in the public domain. These safety data are sometimes published as a condensed summary for the few compounds that reach the market, but the majority of studies are never made public and are often difficult to access in an automated way, even sometimes within the owning company itself. It is evident from many academic and industrial examples, that useful data mining and model development requires large and representative data sets and careful curation of the collected data. In 2010, under the auspices of the Innovative Medicines Initiative, the eTOX project started with the objective of extracting and sharing preclinical study data from paper or pdf archives of toxicology departments of the 13 participating pharmaceutical companies and using such data for establishing a detailed, well-curated database, which could then serve as source for read-across approaches (early assessment of the potential toxicity of a drug candidate by comparison of similar structure and/or effects) and training of predictive models. The paper describes the efforts undertaken to allow effective data sharing intellectual property (IP) protection and set up of adequate controlled vocabularies) and to establish the database (currently with over 4000 studies contributed by the pharma companies corresponding to more than 1400 compounds). In addition, the status of predictive models building and some specific features of the eTOX predictive system (eTOXsys) are presented as decision support knowledge-based tools for drug development process at an early stage. PMID:25405742

  17. The eTOX data-sharing project to advance in silico drug-induced toxicity prediction.

    PubMed

    Cases, Montserrat; Briggs, Katharine; Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Pognan, François; Marc, Philippe; Kleinöder, Thomas; Schwab, Christof H; Pastor, Manuel; Wichard, Jörg; Sanz, Ferran

    2014-01-01

    The high-quality in vivo preclinical safety data produced by the pharmaceutical industry during drug development, which follows numerous strict guidelines, are mostly not available in the public domain. These safety data are sometimes published as a condensed summary for the few compounds that reach the market, but the majority of studies are never made public and are often difficult to access in an automated way, even sometimes within the owning company itself. It is evident from many academic and industrial examples, that useful data mining and model development requires large and representative data sets and careful curation of the collected data. In 2010, under the auspices of the Innovative Medicines Initiative, the eTOX project started with the objective of extracting and sharing preclinical study data from paper or pdf archives of toxicology departments of the 13 participating pharmaceutical companies and using such data for establishing a detailed, well-curated database, which could then serve as source for read-across approaches (early assessment of the potential toxicity of a drug candidate by comparison of similar structure and/or effects) and training of predictive models. The paper describes the efforts undertaken to allow effective data sharing intellectual property (IP) protection and set up of adequate controlled vocabularies) and to establish the database (currently with over 4000 studies contributed by the pharma companies corresponding to more than 1400 compounds). In addition, the status of predictive models building and some specific features of the eTOX predictive system (eTOXsys) are presented as decision support knowledge-based tools for drug development process at an early stage. PMID:25405742

  18. Expression of cell cycle markers is predictive of the response to primary systemic therapy of locally advanced breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Tőkés, Tímea; Tőkés, Anna-Mária; Szentmártoni, Gyöngyvér; Kiszner, Gergő; Madaras, Lilla; Kulka, Janina; Krenács, Tibor; Dank, Magdolna

    2016-06-01

    We aimed to analyze to what extent expression of four cell cycle regulation markers-minichromosome maintenance protein (MCM2), Ki-67, cyclin A, and phosphohistone-H3 (PHH3)-predict response to primary systemic therapy in terms of pathological complete remission (pCR). In search of an accurate and reproducible scoring method, we compared computer-assisted (CA) and routine visual assessment (VA) of immunoreactivity. We included 57 patients with breast cancer in the study. The cell cycle markers were detected using immunohistochemistry on pre-therapy core biopsy samples. Parallel CA (validated by manual labeling) and standard VA were performed and compared for diagnostic agreement and predictive value for pCR. CA and VA results were dichotomized based on receiver operating characteristic analysis defined optimal cut-off values. "High" was defined by staining scores above the optimal cut-off, while "low" had staining scores below the optimal cut-off. The CA method resulted in significantly lower values for Ki-67 and MCM2 compared to VA (mean difference, -3.939 and -4.323). Diagnostic agreement was highest for cyclin A and PHH3 (-0.586 and -0.666, respectively). Regardless of the method (CA/VA) used, all tested markers were predictive of pCR. Optimal cut-off-based dichotomization improved diagnostic agreement between the CA and VA methods for every marker, in particular for MCM2 (κ = 1, p < 0.000). Cyclin A displayed excellent agreement (κ = 0.925; p < 0.000), while Ki-67 and PHH3 showed good agreement (κ = 0.789, p < 0.000 and κ = 0.794, p < 0.000, respectively). We found all cell cycle markers (Ki-67, MCM2, cyclin A, and PHH3) predictive of pCR. Diagnostic agreement between CA and VA was better at lower staining scores but improved after optimal cut-off-based dichotomization. PMID:27026269

  19. Advanced prediction technique for the low speed aerodynamics of V/STOL aircraft. Volume 2: User's manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beatty, T. D.; Worthey, M. K.

    1984-01-01

    A computerized prediction method known as the Vought V/STOL Aircraft Propulsive Effects computer program (VAPE) for propulsive induced forces and moments in transition and Short TakeOff and Landing (STOL) flight is improved and evaluated. The VAPE program is capable of evaluating: (1) effects of relative wind about an aircraft, (2) effects of propulsive lift jet entrainment, vorticity and flow blockage, (3) effects of engine inlet flow on the aircraft flow field, (4) engine inlet forces and moments including inlet separation, (5) ground effects in the STOL region of flight, and (6) viscous effects on lifting surfaces.

  20. Advancing hydrometeorological prediction capabilities through standards-based cyberinfrastructure development: The community WRF-Hydro modeling system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    gochis, David; Parodi, Antonio; Hooper, Rick; Jha, Shantenu; Zaslavsky, Ilya

    2013-04-01

    The need for improved assessments and predictions of many key environmental variables is driving a multitude of model development efforts in the geosciences. The proliferation of weather and climate impacts research is driving a host of new environmental prediction model development efforts as society seeks to understand how climate does and will impact key societal activities and resources and, in turn, how human activities influence climate and the environment. This surge in model development has highlighted the role of model coupling as a fundamental activity itself and, at times, a significant bottleneck in weather and climate impacts research. This talk explores some of the recent activities and progress that has been made in assessing the attributes of various approaches to the coupling of physics-based process models for hydrometeorology. One example modeling system that is emerging from these efforts is the community 'WRF-Hydro' modeling system which is based on the modeling architecture of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). An overview of the structural components of WRF-Hydro will be presented as will results from several recent applications which include the prediction of flash flooding events in the Rocky Mountain Front Range region of the U.S. and along the Ligurian coastline in the northern Mediterranean. Efficient integration of the coupled modeling system with distributed infrastructure for collecting and sharing hydrometeorological observations is one of core themes of the work. Specifically, we aim to demonstrate how data management infrastructures used in the US and Europe, in particular data sharing technologies developed within the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System and UNIDATA, can interoperate based on international standards for data discovery and exchange, such as standards developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium and adopted by GEOSS. The data system we envision will help manage WRF-Hydro prediction model data flows, enabling

  1. Uncertainty quantification approaches for advanced reactor analyses.

    SciTech Connect

    Briggs, L. L.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2009-03-24

    The original approach to nuclear reactor design or safety analyses was to make very conservative modeling assumptions so as to ensure meeting the required safety margins. Traditional regulation, as established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission required conservatisms which have subsequently been shown to be excessive. The commission has therefore moved away from excessively conservative evaluations and has determined best-estimate calculations to be an acceptable alternative to conservative models, provided the best-estimate results are accompanied by an uncertainty evaluation which can demonstrate that, when a set of analysis cases which statistically account for uncertainties of all types are generated, there is a 95% probability that at least 95% of the cases meet the safety margins. To date, nearly all published work addressing uncertainty evaluations of nuclear power plant calculations has focused on light water reactors and on large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) analyses. However, there is nothing in the uncertainty evaluation methodologies that is limited to a specific type of reactor or to specific types of plant scenarios. These same methodologies can be equally well applied to analyses for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and to liquid metal reactors, and they can be applied to steady-state calculations, operational transients, or severe accident scenarios. This report reviews and compares both statistical and deterministic uncertainty evaluation approaches. Recommendations are given for selection of an uncertainty methodology and for considerations to be factored into the process of evaluating uncertainties for advanced reactor best-estimate analyses.

  2. Combination of liver biopsy with MELD-XI scores for post-transplant outcome prediction in patients with advanced heart failure and suspected liver dysfunction

    PubMed Central

    Farr, Maryjane; Mitchell, James; Lippel, Matthew; Kato, Tomoko S.; Jin, Zhezhen; Ippolito, Paul; Dove, Lorna; Jorde, Ulrich P.; Takayama, Hiroo; Emond, Jean; Naka, Yoshifumi; Mancini, Donna; Lefkowitch, Jay H.; Schulze, P. Christian

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Functional and structural liver abnormalities may be found in patients with advanced heart failure (HF). The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding INR (MELD-XI) score allows functional risk stratification of HF patients on and off anti-coagulation awaiting heart transplantation (HTx), but these scores may improve or worsen depending on bridging therapies and during time on the waiting list. Liver biopsy is sometimes performed to assess for severity of fibrosis. Uncertainty remains whether biopsy in addition to MELD-XI improves prediction of adverse outcomes in patients evaluated for HTx. METHODS Sixty-eight patients suspected of advanced liver disease underwent liver biopsy as part of their HTx evaluation. A liver risk score (fibrosis-on-biopsy + 1) × MELD-XI was generated for each patient. RESULTS Fifty-two patients were listed, of whom 14 had mechanical circulatory support (MCS). Thirty-six patients underwent transplantation and 27 patients survived ≥1 year post-HTx (74%, as compared with 88% average 1-year survival in HTx patients without suspected liver disease; p < 0.01). Survivors had a lower liver risk score at evaluation for HTx (31.0 ± 20.4 vs 65.2 ± 28.6, p < 0.01). A cut-point of 45 for liver risk score was identified by receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analysis. In the analysis using Cox proportional hazards models, a liver risk score ≥45 at evaluation for HTx was associated with greater risk of death at 1 year post-HTx compared with a score of <45 in both univariable (HR 3.94, 95% CI 1.77–8.79, p < 0.001) and multivariable (HR 4.35, 95% CI 1.77–8.79, p < 0.001) analyses. Patients who died <1 year post-HTx had an increased frequency of acute graft dysfunction (44.4% vs 3.7%, p = 0.009), longer ventilation times (55.6% vs 11.1%, p = 0.013) and severe bleeding events (44.4% vs 11.1%, p = 0.049). The liver risk score at evaluation for HTx also predicted 1-year mortality after HTx listing (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Patients

  3. Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, B.; Corbett, D. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Kemp, A.; Lin, N.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

    2013-12-01

    Future inundation of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. Through ongoing, collaborative research we are employing new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea level rise along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic variability. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers, and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. We produced new, high-resolution proxy sea-level reconstructions to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset spans the alternation between the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' and 'Little Ice Age'. Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from four study areas (Connecticut, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, future storm surges will be superimposed on background sea

  4. Correlation of predicted and measured thermal stresses on an advanced aircraft structure with dissimilar materials. [hypersonic heating simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    Additional information was added to a growing data base from which estimates of finite element model complexities can be made with respect to thermal stress analysis. The manner in which temperatures were smeared to the finite element grid points was examined from the point of view of the impact on thermal stress calculations. The general comparison of calculated and measured thermal stresses is guite good and there is little doubt that the finite element approach provided by NASTRAN results in correct thermal stress calculations. Discrepancies did exist between measured and calculated values in the skin and the skin/frame junctures. The problems with predicting skin thermal stress were attributed to inadequate temperature inputs to the structural model rather than modeling insufficiencies. The discrepancies occurring at the skin/frame juncture were most likely due to insufficient modeling elements rather than temperature problems.

  5. Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horton, B. P.; Donnelly, J. P.; Corbett, D. R.; Kemp, A.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

    2012-12-01

    Future inundation of the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon both sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. In this proposal, we will employ new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea-level rise along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts has increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic distribution. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. Here, we produce new high resolution proxy data of sea-level and temperature to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset will span the alternation between the "Medieval Climate Anomaly" and "Little Ice Age". Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from six study areas (Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia and Atlantic and Gulf coasts of Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, in the future, the resultant

  6. NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel

    2010-01-01

    AIRS is a precision state of the art High Spectral Resolution Multi-detector IR grating array spectrometer that was launched into a polar orbit on EOS Aqua in 2002. AIRS measures most of the infra-red spectrum with very low noise from 650/cm to 2660/cm with a resolving power of 2400 at a spatial resolution of 13 km. The objectives of AIRS were to perform accurate determination of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in up to 90% partial cloud cover conditions for the purpose of improving numerical weather prediction and understanding climate processes. AIRS data has also been used to determine accurate trace gas profiles. A brief overview of the retrieval methodology used to analyze AIRS observations under partial cloud cover will be presented and sample results will be shown from the weather and climate perspectives.

  7. The GEO Water Strategy: Advances in Monitoring, Modeling, and Predicting Groundwater Variations at Regional to Local Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, N. L.; Heinrich, L.; Kukuri, N.; Plag, H.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Rodell, M.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater remains one of the most important freshwater resources, especially during droughts and as global warming increases. For informed decisions on managing these resources sustainably, it is important to have sound assessments of the current state of groundwater resources as well as future predictions. This requires reliable groundwater quantity and quality data. However global access to this data is limited. As part of the GEOSS Water Strategy, the International Groundwater Assessment Centre (IGRAC) is therefore implementing the Global Groundwater Monitoring Network (GGMN). The GGMN facilitates periodic assessments of changes in groundwater quantity and quality by aggregating data and information from existing groundwater monitoring networks and regional hydrogeological knowledge (Fig. 1). The GGMN is a participatory process that relies upon contributions from regional and national networks of groundwater experts. Such observation data, along with local well data, surface displacements observed by and GPS data and InSAR, and local in situ gravity data, are necessary for evaluation and simulation of groundwater, leading to improved understanding and prediction of groundwater variations. In conjunction with these observations, regional scale groundwater variations are derived as a residual from land surface-groundwater models through extraction of the total mass of water using geo-rectified Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. Such model-based studies have quantified overdraft and regions at risk of groundwater depletion in parts of Asia, US, and Africa (Fig. 2).We provide an overview of these systems, planned missions, and new model-based approaches toward local-scale methods for assimilation of well data for several regions.igure 1. Example of GGMN (Example of Botswana with fictitious data, with local precipitation map) igure 2. GRACE-derived groundwater storage in northwestern India for 2002 - 2008, relative to the mean. Deviations from

  8. Predictive Method for Correct Identification of Archaeological Charred Grape Seeds: Support for Advances in Knowledge of Grape Domestication Process

    PubMed Central

    Ucchesu, Mariano; Orrù, Martino; Grillo, Oscar; Venora, Gianfranco; Paglietti, Giacomo; Ardu, Andrea; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

    2016-01-01

    The identification of archaeological charred grape seeds is a difficult task due to the alteration of the morphological seeds shape. In archaeobotanical studies, for the correct discrimination between Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris and Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera grape seeds it is very important to understand the history and origin of the domesticated grapevine. In this work, different carbonisation experiments were carried out using a hearth to reproduce the same burning conditions that occurred in archaeological contexts. In addition, several carbonisation trials on modern wild and cultivated grape seeds were performed using a muffle furnace. For comparison with archaeological materials, modern grape seed samples were obtained using seven different temperatures of carbonisation ranging between 180 and 340ºC for 120 min. Analysing the grape seed size and shape by computer vision techniques, and applying the stepwise linear discriminant analysis (LDA) method, discrimination of the wild from the cultivated charred grape seeds was possible. An overall correct classification of 93.3% was achieved. Applying the same statistical procedure to compare modern charred with archaeological grape seeds, found in Sardinia and dating back to the Early Bronze Age (2017–1751 2σ cal. BC), allowed 75.0% of the cases to be identified as wild grape. The proposed method proved to be a useful and effective procedure in identifying, with high accuracy, the charred grape seeds found in archaeological sites. Moreover, it may be considered valid support for advances in the knowledge and comprehension of viticulture adoption and the grape domestication process. The same methodology may also be successful when applied to other plant remains, and provide important information about the history of domesticated plants. PMID:26901361

  9. Pharmacogenetic prediction of clinical outcome in advanced colorectal cancer patients receiving oxaliplatin/5-fluorouracil as first-line chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Paré, L; Marcuello, E; Altés, A; del Río, E; Sedano, L; Salazar, J; Cortés, A; Barnadas, A; Baiget, M

    2008-10-01

    To determine whether molecular parameters could be partly responsible for resistance or sensitivity to oxaliplatin (OX)-based chemotherapy used as first-line treatment in advanced colorectal cancer (CRC). We studied the usefulness of the excision repair cross-complementing 1 (ERCC1), xeroderma pigmentosum group D (XPD), XRCC1 and GSTP1 polymorphisms as predictors of clinical outcome in these patients. We treated 126 CRC patients with a first-line OX/5-fluorouracil chemotherapeutic regimen. Genetic polymorphisms were determined by real-time PCR on an ABI PRISM 7000, using DNA from peripheral blood. Clinical response (CR), progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated according to each genotype. In the univariate analysis for CR, ERCC1-118 and XPD 751 polymorphisms were significant (P=0.02 and P=0.05, respectively). After adjustment for the most relevant clinical variables, only ERCC1-118 retained significance (P=0.008). In the univariate analysis for PFS, ERCC1-118 and XPD 751 were significant (P=0.003 and P=0.009, respectively). In the multivariant analysis, only the XPD 751 was significant for PFS (P=0.02). Finally, ERCC1-118 and XPD 751 polymorphisms were significant in the univariate analysis for OS (P=0.006 and P=0.015, respectively). Both genetic variables remained significant in the multivariate Cox survival analysis (P=0.022 and P=0.03). Our data support the hypothesis that enhanced DNA repair diminishes the benefit of platinum-based treatments. PMID:18797464

  10. Pharmacogenetic prediction of clinical outcome in advanced colorectal cancer patients receiving oxaliplatin/5-fluorouracil as first-line chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Paré, L; Marcuello, E; Altés, A; Río, E del; Sedano, L; Salazar, J; Cortés, A; Barnadas, A; Baiget, M

    2008-01-01

    To determine whether molecular parameters could be partly responsible for resistance or sensitivity to oxaliplatin (OX)-based chemotherapy used as first-line treatment in advanced colorectal cancer (CRC). We studied the usefulness of the excision repair cross-complementing 1 (ERCC1), xeroderma pigmentosum group D (XPD), XRCC1 and GSTP1 polymorphisms as predictors of clinical outcome in these patients. We treated 126 CRC patients with a first-line OX/5-fluorouracil chemotherapeutic regimen. Genetic polymorphisms were determined by real-time PCR on an ABI PRISM 7000, using DNA from peripheral blood. Clinical response (CR), progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated according to each genotype. In the univariate analysis for CR, ERCC1-118 and XPD 751 polymorphisms were significant (P=0.02 and P=0.05, respectively). After adjustment for the most relevant clinical variables, only ERCC1-118 retained significance (P=0.008). In the univariate analysis for PFS, ERCC1-118 and XPD 751 were significant (P=0.003 and P=0.009, respectively). In the multivariant analysis, only the XPD 751 was significant for PFS (P=0.02). Finally, ERCC1-118 and XPD 751 polymorphisms were significant in the univariate analysis for OS (P=0.006 and P=0.015, respectively). Both genetic variables remained significant in the multivariate Cox survival analysis (P=0.022 and P=0.03). Our data support the hypothesis that enhanced DNA repair diminishes the benefit of platinum-based treatments. PMID:18797464

  11. Predictive Method for Correct Identification of Archaeological Charred Grape Seeds: Support for Advances in Knowledge of Grape Domestication Process.

    PubMed

    Ucchesu, Mariano; Orrù, Martino; Grillo, Oscar; Venora, Gianfranco; Paglietti, Giacomo; Ardu, Andrea; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

    2016-01-01

    The identification of archaeological charred grape seeds is a difficult task due to the alteration of the morphological seeds shape. In archaeobotanical studies, for the correct discrimination between Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris and Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera grape seeds it is very important to understand the history and origin of the domesticated grapevine. In this work, different carbonisation experiments were carried out using a hearth to reproduce the same burning conditions that occurred in archaeological contexts. In addition, several carbonisation trials on modern wild and cultivated grape seeds were performed using a muffle furnace. For comparison with archaeological materials, modern grape seed samples were obtained using seven different temperatures of carbonisation ranging between 180 and 340ºC for 120 min. Analysing the grape seed size and shape by computer vision techniques, and applying the stepwise linear discriminant analysis (LDA) method, discrimination of the wild from the cultivated charred grape seeds was possible. An overall correct classification of 93.3% was achieved. Applying the same statistical procedure to compare modern charred with archaeological grape seeds, found in Sardinia and dating back to the Early Bronze Age (2017-1751 2σ cal. BC), allowed 75.0% of the cases to be identified as wild grape. The proposed method proved to be a useful and effective procedure in identifying, with high accuracy, the charred grape seeds found in archaeological sites. Moreover, it may be considered valid support for advances in the knowledge and comprehension of viticulture adoption and the grape domestication process. The same methodology may also be successful when applied to other plant remains, and provide important information about the history of domesticated plants. PMID:26901361

  12. Limited Utility of ITPA Deficiency to Predict Early Anemia in HCV Patients with Advanced Fibrosis Receiving Telaprevir

    PubMed Central

    Aghemo, Alessio; Grassi, Eleonora; Rumi, Maria Grazia; D'Ambrosio, Roberta; Galmozzi, Enrico; Degasperi, Elisabetta; Castaldi, Davide; Soffredini, Roberta; Colombo, Massimo

    2014-01-01

    Background Severe anemia is a common side effect of Pegylated Interferon + Ribavirin (PR) and Telaprevir (TVR) in hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis (F3–F4). Inosine triphosphatase (ITPA) genetic variants are associated with RBV- induced anemia and dose reduction. Aim To test the association of ITPA polymorphisms rs1127354 and rs7270101 with hemoglobin (Hb) decline, need for RBV dose reduction (RBV DR), erythropoietin (EPO) support and blood transfusions during the first 12 weeks of TVR triple therapy. Materials and Methods 69 consecutive HCV-1 patients (mean age 57 years) with F3-F4 who received PR and TVR were genotyped for ITPA polymorphisms rs1127354 and rs7270101. Estimated ITPA deficiency was graded on severity (0–3, no deficiency/mild/moderate/severe). Results ITPA deficiency was absent in 48 patients (70%), mild in 12 (17%) and moderate in 9 patients (13%). Mean week 4 Hb decline was higher in non ITPA deficient patients (3,85 g/dL) than in mildly or moderately ITPA deficient patients (3,07 g/dL and 1,67 g/dL, p<0.0001). Grade 3–4 anemia developed in 81% non ITPA deficient patients versus 67% mild deficient and 55% moderate deficient patients (p = ns). Grade of ITPA deficiency was not associated with RbvDR (no deficiency: 60%, mild: 58%, moderate: 67%; p = ns), EPO use (no deficiency: 65%, mild: 58%, moderate:56%; p = ns) or need for blood transfusion (no deficiency: 27%, mild: 17%, moderate: 33%; p = ns). Conclusions In patients with F3–F4 chronic hepatitis C receiving TVR based therapy, ITPA genotype does not impact on the management of early anemia. PMID:24760000

  13. Potential predictive role of chemotherapy-induced changes of soluble CD40 ligand in untreated advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Azzariti, Amalia; Brunetti, Oronzo; Porcelli, Letizia; Graziano, Giusi; Iacobazzi, Rosa Maria; Signorile, Michele; Scarpa, Aldo; Lorusso, Vito; Silvestris, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Pancreas ductal adenocarcinoma lacks predictive biomarkers. CD40 is a member of the tumor necrosis factor superfamily. CD40–sCD40L interaction is considered to contribute to the promotion of tumor cell growth and angiogenesis. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of serum sCD40L as a predictor in metastatic pancreatic cancer. We evaluated 27 consecutive pancreatic cancer patients treated with FOLFIRINOX (21 patients) or gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel combination (six patients). The sCD40L level was measured in serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at baseline, at first evaluation (all patients), and at time to progression (18 patients). The radiological response was evaluated according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors, Version 1.1. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare pre–post treatment sCD40L levels with respect to clinical response, while Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used for the correlation between sCD40L and CA19.9 pre- and post-treatment. The Kruskal–Wallis test was also conducted for further comparisons. We observed a statistically significant reduction in the sCD40L level after 3 months of treatment in patients with partial response (11,718.05±7,097.13 pg/mL vs 4,689.42±5,409.96 pg/mL; P<0.01). Conversely, in patients with progressive disease, the biomarker statistically increased in the same time (9,351.51±7,356.91 pg/mL vs 22,282.92±11,629.35 pg/mL; P<0.01). This trend of sCD40L was confirmed in 18 patients at time to progression after the first evaluation. No differences were recorded within the stable disease group. Moreover, there was a positive correlation between the sCD40L and CA19.9 pre–post treatment variation percentage (Pearson’s correlation coefficient =0.52; P<0.05). Our data suggest a possible predictive role of sCD40L in pancreatic cancer patients, similar to CA19.9. PMID:27555786

  14. Potential predictive role of chemotherapy-induced changes of soluble CD40 ligand in untreated advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Azzariti, Amalia; Brunetti, Oronzo; Porcelli, Letizia; Graziano, Giusi; Iacobazzi, Rosa Maria; Signorile, Michele; Scarpa, Aldo; Lorusso, Vito; Silvestris, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Pancreas ductal adenocarcinoma lacks predictive biomarkers. CD40 is a member of the tumor necrosis factor superfamily. CD40-sCD40L interaction is considered to contribute to the promotion of tumor cell growth and angiogenesis. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of serum sCD40L as a predictor in metastatic pancreatic cancer. We evaluated 27 consecutive pancreatic cancer patients treated with FOLFIRINOX (21 patients) or gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel combination (six patients). The sCD40L level was measured in serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at baseline, at first evaluation (all patients), and at time to progression (18 patients). The radiological response was evaluated according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors, Version 1.1. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare pre-post treatment sCD40L levels with respect to clinical response, while Pearson's correlation coefficient was used for the correlation between sCD40L and CA19.9 pre- and post-treatment. The Kruskal-Wallis test was also conducted for further comparisons. We observed a statistically significant reduction in the sCD40L level after 3 months of treatment in patients with partial response (11,718.05±7,097.13 pg/mL vs 4,689.42±5,409.96 pg/mL; P<0.01). Conversely, in patients with progressive disease, the biomarker statistically increased in the same time (9,351.51±7,356.91 pg/mL vs 22,282.92±11,629.35 pg/mL; P<0.01). This trend of sCD40L was confirmed in 18 patients at time to progression after the first evaluation. No differences were recorded within the stable disease group. Moreover, there was a positive correlation between the sCD40L and CA19.9 pre-post treatment variation percentage (Pearson's correlation coefficient =0.52; P<0.05). Our data suggest a possible predictive role of sCD40L in pancreatic cancer patients, similar to CA19.9. PMID:27555786

  15. Advances in toponomics drug discovery: Imaging cycler microscopy correctly predicts a therapy method of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Schubert, Walter

    2015-01-01

    An imaging cycler microscope (ICM) is a fully automated (epi)fluorescence microscope which overcomes the spectral resolution limit resulting in parameter- and dimension-unlimited fluorescence imaging. This enables the spatial resolution of large molecular systems with their emergent topological properties (toponome) in morphologically intact cells and tissues displaying thousands of multi protein assemblies at a time. The resulting combinatorial geometry of these systems has been shown to be key for in-vivo/in-situ detection of lead proteins controlling protein network topology and (dys)function: If lead proteins are blocked or downregulated the corresponding disease protein network disassembles. Here, correct therapeutic predictions are exemplified for ALS. ICM drug target studies have discovered an 18-dimensional cell surface molecular system in ALS-PBMC with a lead drug target protein, whose therapeutic downregulation is now reported to show statistically significant effect with stop of disease progression in one third of the ALS patients. Together, this clinical and the earlier experimental validations of the ICM approach indicate that ICM readily discovers in vivo robustness nodes of disease with lead proteins controlling them. Breaking in vivo robustness nodes using drugs against their lead proteins is likely to overcome current high drug attrition rates. © 2015 The Author. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc, on behalf of ISAC. PMID:25869332

  16. Potential of Baseline Computed Tomography to Predict Long-Term Survival of Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer Treated With Preoperative Chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Zhi-Long; Chen, Ying; Li, Xiao-Ting; Chen, Ke-Neng; Sun, Ying-Shi

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this study, we evaluated the efficacy of baseline computed tomography (CT) signs and postoperative TN stages on survival of patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma with preoperative chemotherapy. Consecutive patients (n = 130) with preoperative chemotherapy and radical esophagectomy from January 2006 to December 2011 were enrolled in this study retrospectively. Pathological T and N stages were confirmed by surgery. Baseline CT signs of tumor length, tumor thickness, outer membrane features, total number of lymph node (tLN), short diameter of the largest lymph node (SDL), and clinical T and N stages were measured. Eight-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were estimated using Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to determine associations between baseline CT signs and survival outcomes. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that tLN number, largest LN short axis diameter, pT, and pN stages all correlated with OS significantly. And the total tLN number, SDL and pN stages significantly correlated with DFS. In Cox analyses, total tLN number (>6) and pN stage were significantly associated with OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.55 [95% CI, 1.13–2.11, P = 0.006] and HR: 1.49 [95% CI, 1.17–1.90, P = 0.001], respectively). Cox regression analysis showed that OS index was predictive of 1- to 3-year survival. Total number of lymph node in baseline CT provides equal efficiency compared to pN stages in the prediction of 8-year long-term survival outcomes for advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients with preoperative chemotherapy. PMID:27149488

  17. Potential of Baseline Computed Tomography to Predict Long-Term Survival of Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer Treated With Preoperative Chemotherapy: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhi-Long; Chen, Ying; Li, Xiao-Ting; Chen, Ke-Neng; Sun, Ying-Shi

    2016-05-01

    In this study, we evaluated the efficacy of baseline computed tomography (CT) signs and postoperative TN stages on survival of patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma with preoperative chemotherapy. Consecutive patients (n = 130) with preoperative chemotherapy and radical esophagectomy from January 2006 to December 2011 were enrolled in this study retrospectively. Pathological T and N stages were confirmed by surgery. Baseline CT signs of tumor length, tumor thickness, outer membrane features, total number of lymph node (tLN), short diameter of the largest lymph node (SDL), and clinical T and N stages were measured. Eight-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were estimated using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to determine associations between baseline CT signs and survival outcomes. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that tLN number, largest LN short axis diameter, pT, and pN stages all correlated with OS significantly. And the total tLN number, SDL and pN stages significantly correlated with DFS. In Cox analyses, total tLN number (>6) and pN stage were significantly associated with OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.55 [95% CI, 1.13-2.11, P = 0.006] and HR: 1.49 [95% CI, 1.17-1.90, P = 0.001], respectively). Cox regression analysis showed that OS index was predictive of 1- to 3-year survival. Total number of lymph node in baseline CT provides equal efficiency compared to pN stages in the prediction of 8-year long-term survival outcomes for advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients with preoperative chemotherapy. PMID:27149488

  18. Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Address the U.S. Priorities and Advance Capabilities for Arctic Climate Modeling and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Cassano, J. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Nijssen, B.; Osinski, R.; Zeng, X.; Brunke, M.; Duvivier, A.; Hamman, J.; Hossainzadeh, S.; Hughes, M.; Seefeldt, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic is undergoing some of the most coordinated rapid climatic changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth, including the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Earth System Models (ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in ESMs generally remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that relate to a combination of coarse resolution, inadequate parameterizations, under-represented processes and a limited knowledge of physical interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the ESM limitations in simulating observed variability and trends in arctic surface climate. RASM is a high resolution, pan-Arctic coupled climate model with the sea ice and ocean model components configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12o and the atmosphere and land hydrology model components at 50 km resolution, which are all coupled at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled ESM, which due to the constraints from boundary conditions facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with ESMs. The overall goal of RASM is to address key requirements published in the Navy Arctic Roadmap: 2014-2030 and in the Implementation Plan for the National Strategy for the Arctic Region, regarding the need for advanced modeling capabilities for operational forecasting and strategic climate predictions through 2030. The main science objectives of RASM are to advance understanding and model representation of critical physical processes and feedbacks of importance to sea ice thickness and area distribution. RASM results are presented to quantify relative contributions by (i) resolved processes and feedbacks as well as (ii) sensitivity to space dependent sub-grid parameterizations to better

  19. The potential predictive role of nuclear NHERF1 expression in advanced gastric cancer patients treated with epirubicin/oxaliplatin/capecitabine first line chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Mangia, Anita; Caldarola, Lucia; Dell'Endice, Stefania; Scarpi, Emanuela; Saragoni, Luca; Monti, Manlio; Santini, Daniele; Brunetti, Oronzo; Simone, Giovanni; Silvestris, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    Cellular resistance in advanced gastric cancer (GC) might be related to function of multidrug resistance (MDR) proteins. The adaptor protein NHERF1 (Na(+)/H(+) exchanger regulatory factor) is an important player in cancer progression for a number of solid malignancies, even if its role to develop drug resistance remains uncertain. Herein, we aimed to analyze the potential association between NHERF1 expression and P-gp, sorcin and HIF-1α MDR-related proteins in advanced GC patients treated with epirubicin/oxaliplatin/capecitabine (EOX) chemotherapy regimen, and its relation to response. Total number of 28 untreated patients were included into the study. Expression and subcellular localization of all proteins were assessed by immunohistochemistry on formalin-fixed paraffin embedded tumor samples. We did not found significant association between NHERF1 expression and the MDR-related proteins. A trend was observed between positive cytoplasmic NHERF1 (cNHERF1) expression and negative nuclear HIF-1α (nHIF-1α) expression (68.8% versus 31.3% respectively, P = 0.054). However, cytoplasmic P-gp (cP-gp) expression was positively correlated with both cHIF-1α and sorcin expression (P = 0.011; P = 0.002, respectively). Interestingly, nuclear NHERF1 (nNHERF1) staining was statistically associated with clinical response. In detail, 66.7% of patients with high nNHERF1 expression had a disease control rate, while 84.6% of subjects with negative nuclear expression of the protein showed progressive disease (P = 0.009). Multivariate analysis confirmed a significant correlation between nNHERF1 and clinical response (OR 0.06, P = 0.019). These results suggest that nuclear NHERF1 could be related to resistance to the EOX regimen in advanced GC patients, identifying this marker as a possible independent predictive factor. PMID:26126066

  20. The potential predictive role of nuclear NHERF1 expression in advanced gastric cancer patients treated with epirubicin/oxaliplatin/capecitabine first line chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Mangia, Anita; Caldarola, Lucia; Dell'Endice, Stefania; Scarpi, Emanuela; Saragoni, Luca; Monti, Manlio; Santini, Daniele; Brunetti, Oronzo; Simone, Giovanni; Silvestris, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    Cellular resistance in advanced gastric cancer (GC) might be related to function of multidrug resistance (MDR) proteins. The adaptor protein NHERF1 (Na+/H+ exchanger regulatory factor) is an important player in cancer progression for a number of solid malignancies, even if its role to develop drug resistance remains uncertain. Herein, we aimed to analyze the potential association between NHERF1 expression and P-gp, sorcin and HIF-1α MDR-related proteins in advanced GC patients treated with epirubicin/oxaliplatin/capecitabine (EOX) chemotherapy regimen, and its relation to response. Total number of 28 untreated patients were included into the study. Expression and subcellular localization of all proteins were assessed by immunohistochemistry on formalin-fixed paraffin embedded tumor samples. We did not found significant association between NHERF1 expression and the MDR-related proteins. A trend was observed between positive cytoplasmic NHERF1 (cNHERF1) expression and negative nuclear HIF-1α (nHIF-1α) expression (68.8% versus 31.3% respectively, P = 0.054). However, cytoplasmic P-gp (cP-gp) expression was positively correlated with both cHIF-1α and sorcin expression (P = 0.011; P = 0.002, respectively). Interestingly, nuclear NHERF1 (nNHERF1) staining was statistically associated with clinical response. In detail, 66.7% of patients with high nNHERF1 expression had a disease control rate, while 84.6% of subjects with negative nuclear expression of the protein showed progressive disease (P = 0.009). Multivariate analysis confirmed a significant correlation between nNHERF1 and clinical response (OR 0.06, P = 0.019). These results suggest that nuclear NHERF1 could be related to resistance to the EOX regimen in advanced GC patients, identifying this marker as a possible independent predictive factor. PMID:26126066

  1. Development of an advanced, high-frequency GPR technique for the assessment of concrete structures: from modeling predictions to experimental results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheilakou, Eleni; Matikas, Theodore E.

    2016-04-01

    The main objective of this paper is to develop a portable, advanced and high operating frequency GPR prototype system, which will be able to provide an increased sensitivity and resolution in terms of defects detectability at a penetration depth range up to 40-50 cm in concrete. For this purpose, the theoretical assessment of multiple GPR antenna-frequency approaches was initially performed using electromagnetic wave simulation tools for the propagation of radar waves within concrete, aiming to predict the required antenna frequency and characteristics that are most effective in detecting internal concrete elements and defects of interest found in realistic structures. Form the modeling results obtained, which are described in this paper, a portable, advanced, single-channel GPR system was developed, which uses a highfrequency shielded dipole antenna in monostatic arrangement and operates at a central operating frequency of 2600 MHz. Finally, the evaluation of the performance of the developed GPR technology was carried out under laboratory conditions, where concrete samples of varying dimensions and with different embedded structural features of known characteristics were tested. The validation results produced from this study indicated the high potential and efficiency of the developed GPR device to accurately detect internal concrete features with superior resolution and with sufficient penetration for concrete to be adequately resolved in depths up to 40 cm.

  2. Comparative diagnostic accuracy of magnetic resonance elastography versus eight clinical prediction rules for non-invasive diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: a prospective study

    PubMed Central

    Cui, Jeffrey; Ang, Brandon; Haufe, William; Hernandez, Carolyn; Verna, Elizabeth C.; Sirlin, Claude B.; Loomba, Rohit

    2015-01-01

    Background Two-dimensional magnetic resonance elastography (2D-MRE) is an advanced magnetic resonance method with high diagnostic accuracy for predicting advanced fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients. However, no prospective, head-to-head comparisons between 2D-MRE and clinical prediction rules (CPRs) have been performed in patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. Aim This study compared the diagnostic utility of 2D-MRE against that of eight CPRs (AST:ALT ratio, APRI, BARD, FIB-4, NAFLD Fibrosis Score, Bonacini cirrhosis discriminant score, Lok Index, and NASH CRN model) for predicting advanced fibrosis in a prospective cohort with paired liver biopsy as the gold standard. Methods This is a cross-sectional analysis of a prospective study of 102 patients (58.8% women) with biopsy-proven NAFLD, 2D-MRE, and clinical research assessment within 90 days of biopsy. ROC analysis was performed to assess the performance of 2D-MRE and CPRs for predicting advanced fibrosis. Results The mean (± SD) age and BMI were 51.3 (±14.0) years and 31.7 (±5.5) kg/m2, respectively. 48, 26, 9, 13, and 6 patients had stage 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 fibrosis, respectively. The area under ROC curve (AUROC) was 0.957 for 2D-MRE and between 0.796 and 0.861 for the CPRs. FIB-4 was the best-performing CPR at predicting advanced fibrosis with AUROC of 0.861. In head-to-head comparisons using the Delong test, 2D-MRE had significantly better AUROC (p < 0.05) than each CPR for predicting advanced fibrosis. Conclusions Compared to CPRs, 2D-MRE provides significantly higher accuracy for advanced fibrosis diagnosis in NAFLD patients. PMID:25873207

  3. Weight and cost forecasting for advanced manned space vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Raymond

    1989-01-01

    A mass and cost estimating computerized methology for predicting advanced manned space vehicle weights and costs was developed. The user friendly methology designated MERCER (Mass Estimating Relationship/Cost Estimating Relationship) organizes the predictive process according to major vehicle subsystem levels. Design, development, test, evaluation, and flight hardware cost forecasting is treated by the study. This methodology consists of a complete set of mass estimating relationships (MERs) which serve as the control components for the model and cost estimating relationships (CERs) which use MER output as input. To develop this model, numerous MER and CER studies were surveyed and modified where required. Additionally, relationships were regressed from raw data to accommodate the methology. The models and formulations which estimated the cost of historical vehicles to within 20 percent of the actual cost were selected. The result of the research, along with components of the MERCER Program, are reported. On the basis of the analysis, the following conclusions were established: (1) The cost of a spacecraft is best estimated by summing the cost of individual subsystems; (2) No one cost equation can be used for forecasting the cost of all spacecraft; (3) Spacecraft cost is highly correlated with its mass; (4) No study surveyed contained sufficient formulations to autonomously forecast the cost and weight of the entire advanced manned vehicle spacecraft program; (5) No user friendly program was found that linked MERs with CERs to produce spacecraft cost; and (6) The group accumulation weight estimation method (summing the estimated weights of the various subsystems) proved to be a useful method for finding total weight and cost of a spacecraft.

  4. Researches on the Nankai trough mega thrust earthquake seismogenic zones using real time observing systems for advanced early warning systems and predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2015-04-01

    We recognized the importance of real time monitoring on Earthquakes and Tsunamis Based on lessons learned from 2004 Sumatra Earthquake/Tsunamis and 2011 East Japan Earthquake. We deployed DONET1 and are developing DONET2 as real time monitoring systems which are dense ocean floor networks around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone Southwestern Japan. Total observatories of DONE1 and DONET2 are 51 observatories equipped with multi kinds of sensors such as the accelerometer, broadband seismometer, pressure gauge, difference pressure gauge, hydrophone and thermometer in each observatory. These systems are indispensable for not only early warning of Earthquakes/ Tsunamis, but also researches on broadband crustal activities around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone for predictions. DONET1 detected offshore tsunamis 15 minutes earlier than onshore stations at the 2011 East Japan earthquake/tsunami. Furthermore, DONET1/DONET2 will be expected to monitor slow events such as low frequency tremors and slow earthquakes for the prediction researches. Finally, the integration of observations and simulation researches will contribute to estimate of seismic stage changes from the inter-seismic to pre seismic stage. I will introduce applications of DONET1/DONET2 data and advanced simulation researches.

  5. High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction (HD(CP)2): Large Eddy Simulation Study Over Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dipankar, A.; Stevens, B. B.; Zängl, G.; Pondkule, M.; Brdar, S.

    2014-12-01

    The effect of clouds on large scale dynamics is represented in climate models through parameterization of various processes, of which the parameterization of shallow and deep convection are particularly uncertain. The atmospheric boundary layer, which controls the coupling to the surface, and which defines the scale of shallow convection, is typically 1 km in depth. Thus, simulations on a O(100 m) grid largely obviate the need for such parameterizations. By crossing this threshold of O(100m) grid resolution one can begin thinking of large-eddy simulation (LES), wherein the sub-grid scale parameterization have a sounder theoretical foundation. Substantial initiatives have been taken internationally to approach this threshold. For example, Miura et al., 2007 and Mirakawa et al., 2014 approach this threshold by doing global simulations, with (gradually) decreasing grid resolution, to understand the effect of cloud-resolving scales on the general circulation. Our strategy, on the other hand, is to take a big leap forward by fixing the resolution at O(100 m), and gradually increasing the domain size. We believe that breaking this threshold would greatly help in improving the parameterization schemes and reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions. To take this forward, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research has initiated a project on HD(CP)2 that aims for a limited area LES at resolution O(100 m) using the new unified modeling system ICON (Zängl et al., 2014). In the talk, results from the HD(CP)2 evaluation simulation will be shown that targets high resolution simulation over a small domain around Jülich, Germany. This site is chosen because high resolution HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment took place in this region from 1.04.2013 to 31.05.2013, in order to critically evaluate the model. Nesting capabilities of ICON is used to gradually increase the resolution from the outermost domain, which is forced from the COSMO-DE data, to the

  6. Predictive role of microRNA-related genetic polymorphisms in the pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Dreussi, Eva; Pucciarelli, Salvatore; De Paoli, Antonino; Polesel, Jerry; Canzonieri, Vincenzo; Agostini, Marco; Friso, Maria Luisa; Belluco, Claudio; Buonadonna, Angela; Lonardi, Sara; Zanusso, Chiara; De Mattia, Elena; Toffoli, Giuseppe; Cecchin, Erika

    2016-01-01

    In rectal cancer, a pathologic complete response (pCR) to pre-operative treatment is a favourable prognostic marker, but is reported in a minority of the patients. We aimed at identifying microRNA-related host genetic polymorphisms predictive of pCR. A panel of 114 microRNA-related tagging polymorphisms was selected and analyzed on 265 locally advanced rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy. Patients were stratified in two subgroups according to the radiotherapy dose (50.4Gy for 202 patients, 55.0Gy for 78 patients). Interactions among genetic and clinical-pathological variants were investigated by recursive partitioning analysis. Only polymorphisms with a consistent significant effect in the two subgroups of patients were selected as predictive markers of pCR. The results were validated by bootstrap analysis. SMAD3-rs744910, SMAD3-rs745103, and TRBP-rs6088619 were associated to an increased chance of pCR (p=0.0153, p=0.0471, p=0.0125). DROSHA-rs10719 and SMAD3-rs17228212 had an opposite detrimental effect on pathological tumour response (p=0.0274, p=0.0049). Recursive partitioning analysis highlighted that a longer interval time between the end of radiotherapy and surgery increases the chance of pCR in patients with a specific combination of SMAD3-rs744910 and TRBP-rs6088619 genotypes. This study demonstrated that microRNA-related host genetic polymorphisms can predict pCR to neo-adjuvant chemo-radiotherapy, and could be used to personalize the interval time between the end of radiotherapy and surgery. PMID:26934318

  7. Development and validation of advanced CFD models for detailed predictions of void distribution in a BWR bundle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neykov, Boyan

    , it is important to extend validity of the current correlations for the lift coefficients to higher void (gas) phase fractions. After investigating the underlying physics and analyzing a large amount of experimental data, an improved model for lift force at different void fraction levels, including large bubbles and slug flow regime, is proposed. The model is implemented in STAR-CD and validated. The validation of the models is performed against five different experiments, characterized by different geometries at different boundary conditions. Comparison with the already existing models in STAR-CD code is performed and it is found that the newly integrated force models for drag and lift forces leads to more accurate void distribution predictions.

  8. Prediction of clinical toxicity in locally advanced head and neck cancer patients by radio-induced apoptosis in peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBLs)

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Head and neck cancer is treated mainly by surgery and radiotherapy. Normal tissue toxicity due to x-ray exposure is a limiting factor for treatment success. Many efforts have been employed to develop predictive tests applied to clinical practice. Determination of lymphocyte radio-sensitivity by radio-induced apoptosis arises as a possible method to predict tissue toxicity due to radiotherapy. The aim of the present study was to analyze radio-induced apoptosis of peripheral blood lymphocytes in head and neck cancer patients and to explore their role in predicting radiation induced toxicity. Seventy nine consecutive patients suffering from head and neck cancer, diagnosed and treated in our institution, were included in the study. Toxicity was evaluated using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group scale. Peripheral blood lymphocytes were isolated and irradiated at 0, 1, 2 and 8 Gy during 24 hours. Apoptosis was measured by flow cytometry using annexin V/propidium iodide. Lymphocytes were marked with CD45 APC-conjugated monoclonal antibody. Radiation-induced apoptosis increased in order to radiation dose and fitted to a semi logarithmic model defined by two constants: α and β. α, as the origin of the curve in the Y axis determining the percentage of spontaneous cell death, and β, as the slope of the curve determining the percentage of cell death induced at a determined radiation dose, were obtained. β value was statistically associated to normal tissue toxicity in terms of severe xerostomia, as higher levels of apoptosis were observed in patients with low toxicity (p = 0.035; Exp(B) 0.224, I.C.95% (0.060-0.904)). These data agree with our previous results and suggest that it is possible to estimate the radiosensitivity of peripheral blood lymphocytes from patients determining the radiation induced apoptosis with annexin V/propidium iodide staining. β values observed define an individual radiosensitivity profile that could predict late toxicity due to radiotherapy

  9. Predictive value of the age-adjusted charlson comorbidity index on perioperative complications and survival in patients undergoing primary debulking surgery for advanced epithelial ovarian cancer

    PubMed Central

    Suidan, Rudy S.; Leitao, Mario M.; Zivanovic, Oliver; Gardner, Ginger J.; Long Roche, Kara C.; Sonoda, Yukio; Levine, Douglas A.; Jewell, Elizabeth L.; Brown, Carol L.; Abu-Rustum, Nadeem R.; Charlson, Mary E.; Chi, Dennis S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the ability of the Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity index (ACCI) to predict perioperative complications and survival in patients undergoing primary debulking for advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Methods Data were analyzed for all patients with stage IIIB-IV EOC who underwent primary cytoreduction from 1/2001–1/2010 at our institution. Patients were divided into 3 groups based on an ACCI of 0–1, 2–3, and ≥4. Clinical and survival outcomes were assessed and compared. Results We identified 567 patients; 199 (35%) had an ACCI of 0–1, 271 (48%) had an ACCI of 2–3, and 97 (17%) had an ACCI of ≥4. The ACCI was significantly associated with the rate of complete gross resection (0–1=44%, 2–3=32%, and ≥4=32%; p=0.02), but was not associated with the rate of minor (47% vs 47% vs 43%, p=0.84) or major (18% vs 19% vs 16%, p=0.8) complications. The ACCI was also significantly associated with progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Median PFS for patients with an ACCI of 0–1, 2–3, and ≥4 was 20.3, 16, and 15.4 months, respectively (p=0.02). Median OS for patients with an ACCI of 0–1, 2–3, and ≥4 was 65.3, 49.9, and 42.3 months, respectively (p<0.001). On multivariate analysis, the ACCI remained a significant prognostic factor for both PFS (p=0.02) and OS (p<0.001). Conclusions The ACCI was not associated with perioperative complications in patients undergoing primary cytoreduction for advanced EOC, but was a significant predictor of PFS and OS. Prospective clinical trials in ovarian cancer should consider stratifying for an age-comorbidity covariate. PMID:26037900

  10. Early Clinical Response after 2 Weeks of Sorafenib Therapy Predicts Outcomes and Anti-Tumor Response in Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Kuzuya, Teiji; Ishigami, Masatoshi; Ishizu, Yoji; Honda, Takashi; Hayashi, Kazuhiko; Katano, Yoshiaki; Hirooka, Yoshiki; Ishikawa, Tetsuya; Nakano, Isao; Goto, Hidemi

    2015-01-01

    Background & Aims We evaluated the relationship between the early clinical response after 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy and the outcomes and anti-tumor response in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. Methods Fifty-seven patients who had intrahepatic hypervascular hepatocellular carcinoma and Child-Pugh (CP) class A disease at baseline were enrolled in this prospective, multicenter, observational, non-interventional study. As an early clinical response after 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy, changes in intra-tumor blood flow on contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, and remnant liver function were investigated. Results After 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy, there were 26 patients (45.6%) without disappearance of arterial tumor enhancement on CE-CT, 15 patients (26.3%) with an AFP ratio of >1.2, and seven patients (12.3%) with two or more increments in the CP score. Multivariate analysis showed that the absence of disappearance of arterial tumor enhancement on CE-CT, AFP ratio of >1.2, and two or more increments in the CP score after 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy were significant and independent predictors of worse survival. Upon scoring these three variables as "poor prognostic factors", patients with poor prognostic score 4, 3 or 2 (n = 17) had significantly worse outcomes and a significantly higher progressive disease (PD) rate based on modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors at 6 weeks after sorafenib therapy than those with poor prognostic score 1 or 0 (n = 40) (median overall survival: 194 days vs. 378 days; p = 0.0010, PD rate: 70.6% vs. 20.0%; p = 0.0003, respectively). Conclusions Changes in intra-tumor blood flow on CE-CT, AFP levels, and remnant liver function after 2 weeks of sorafenib therapy may be useful for predicting the outcomes and anti-tumor response to sorafenib in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. PMID:26421430

  11. FRAPTRAN Predictability of High Burnup Advanced Fuel Performance: Analysis of the CABRI CIP0-1 and CIP0-2 Experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Del Barrio, M.T.; Herranz, L.E.

    2007-07-01

    Adequacy of analytical tools to estimate advanced high burnup fuel during a power pulse need to be soundly proven. Most of models in codes dealing with transient are extrapolations of those developed for lower irradiations. In addition, lack of open information prevents often a proper account of mechanical properties of new advanced cladding material. These circumstances make experimental programs on high burnup fuel performance an indispensable tool to enhance safety codes predictability through building up sound databases on which models can be extended or developed and on which suitable code performance can be proven. The experiments CIP0-1 and CIP0-2, carried out on 2002 in the CABRI reactor, can be seen as reference tests to investigate high burnup fuel response to RIA transients. Fuel rods of up to 75 GWd/tU (average rod burnup) encapsulated in advanced cladding materials (ZIRLO and M5) were submitted to power pulses of about 30 ms of half maximum width that injected 90-100 cal/g after 1.2 s. None of the rodlets failed during the experiments, but they underwent deformation that was experimentally determined. The FRAPTRAN code has been used for the analysis of these RIA tests. The fuel rod characterization necessary for FRAPTRAN at the end of the base irradiation, prior to the transient, was provided by FRAPCON-3. An investigation of major deviations of fuel rod characterization at the end of the base irradiation has highlighted that thermal uncertainties could result in outstanding discrepancies in FGR estimates. Transient comparison with the available data shows that FRAPTRAN presents a relatively good agreement in permanent clad hoop strain and overestimates significantly the axial elongation of the cladding. The potential effect of approximations made in describing the cladding mechanical behavior, the fuel-to-clad relative movement and the pre-transient gap width, have been all discussed. Given existing uncertainties, a conclusive statement could not be

  12. An internally and externally validated nomogram for predicting the risk of irinotecan-induced severe neutropenia in advanced colorectal cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Ichikawa, W; Uehara, K; Minamimura, K; Tanaka, C; Takii, Y; Miyauchi, H; Sadahiro, S; Fujita, K; Moriwaki, T; Nakamura, M; Takahashi, T; Tsuji, A; Shinozaki, K; Morita, S; Ando, Y; Okutani, Y; Sugihara, M; Sugiyama, T; Ohashi, Y; Sakata, Y

    2015-01-01

    Background: In Asians, the risk of irinotecan-induced severe toxicities is related in part to UGT1A1*6 (UGT, UDP glucuronosyltransferase) and UGT1A1*28, variant alleles that reduce the elimination of SN-38, the active metabolite of irinotecan. We prospectively studied the relation between the UGT1A1 genotype and the safety of irinotecan-based regimens in Japanese patients with advanced colorectal cancer, and then constructed a nomogram for predicting the risk of severe neutropenia in the first treatment cycle. Methods: Safety data were obtained from 1312 patients monitored during the first 3 cycles of irinotecan-based regimen in a prospective observational study. In development of the nomogram, multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to test the associations of candidate factors to severe neutropenia in the first cycle. The final nomogram based on the results of multivariable analysis was constructed and validated internally using a bootstrapping technique and externally in an independent data set (n=350). Results: The UGT1A1 genotype was confirmed to be associated with increased risks of irinotecan-induced grade 3 or 4 neutropenia and diarrhoea. The final nomogram included type of regimen, administered dose of irinotecan, gender, age, UGT1A1 genotype, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, pre-treatment absolute neutrophil count, and total bilirubin level. The model was validated both internally (bootstrap-adjusted concordance index, 0.69) and externally (concordance index, 0.70). Conclusions: Our nomogram can be used before treatment to accurately predict the probability of irinotecan-induced severe neutropenia in the first cycle of therapy. Additional studies should evaluate the effect of nomogram-guided dosing on efficacy in patients receiving irinotecan. PMID:25880011

  13. Predictive assessment in pharmacogenetics of XRCC1 gene on clinical outcomes of advanced lung cancer patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Zhengrong; Li, Jiao; Hu, Ruiqi; Jiao, Yang; Han, Yingying; Weng, Qiang

    2015-01-01

    Published data have shown inconsistent results about the pharmacogenetics of XRCC1 gene on clinical outcomes of advanced lung cancer patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy. This meta-analysis aimed to summarize published findings and provide more reliable association. A total of 53 eligible studies including 7433 patients were included. Patients bearing the favorable TrpTrp and TrpArg genotypes of Arg194Trp were more likely to better response rates to platinum-based chemotherapy compared to those with the unfavorable ArgArg genotype (TrpTrp+TrpArg vs. ArgArg: odds ratio (OR) = 2.02, 95% CI, 1.66–2.45). The GlnGln and GlnArg genotypes of Arg399Gln were significantly associated with the poorer response rates compared to those with the ArgArg genotype (GlnGln +GlnArg vs. ArgArg: OR = 0.68, 95% CI, 0.54–0.86). The GlnGln genotype might be more closely associated with shorter survival time and higher risks of death for patients (GlnGln vs. ArgArg: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.14, 95% CI, 0.75–1.75). Our cumulative meta-analyses indicated a distinct apparent trend toward a better response rate for Arg194Trp, but a poorer response rate in Arg399Gln. These findings indicate a predictive role of XRCC1 polymorphisms in clinical outcomes. The use of XRCC1 polymorphisms as predictive factor of clinical outcomes in personalized chemotherapy treatment requires further verification from large well-designed pharmacogenetics studies. PMID:26585370

  14. Final Results of the Telaprevir Access Program: FibroScan Values Predict Safety and Efficacy in Hepatitis C Patients with Advanced Fibrosis or Cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Lepida, Antonia; Colombo, Massimo; Fernandez, Inmaculada; Abdurakhmanov, Djamal; Abrao Ferreira, Paulo; Strasser, Simone I.; Urbanek, Petr; Mangia, Alessandra; Calleja, José L.; Iraqi, Wafae; DeMasi, Ralph; Lonjon-Domanec, Isabelle

    2015-01-01

    Background Liver stiffness determined by transient elastography is correlated with hepatic fibrosis stage and has high accuracy for detecting severe fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C patients. We evaluated the clinical value of baseline FibroScan values for the prediction of safety and efficacy of telaprevir-based therapy in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in the telaprevir Early Access Program HEP3002. Methods 1,772 patients with HCV-1 and bridging fibrosis or cirrhosis were treated with telaprevir plus pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin (PR) for 12 weeks followed by PR alone, the total treatment duration depending on virological response and previous response type. Liver fibrosis stage was determined either by liver biopsy or by non-invasive markers. 1,282 patients (72%) had disease stage assessed by FibroScan; among those 46% were classified as Metavir F3 at baseline and 54% as F4. Results Overall, 1,139 patients (64%) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) by intention-to-treat analysis. Baseline FibroScan values were tested for association with SVR and the occurrence of adverse events. By univariate analysis, higher baseline FibroScan values were predictive of lower sustained virological response rates and treatment-related anemia. By multivariate analysis, FibroScan was no longer statistically significant as an independent predictor, but higher FibroScan values were correlated with the occurrence of infections and serious adverse events. Conclusions FibroScan has a limited utility as a predictor of safety and efficacy in patients treated with telaprevir-based triple therapy. Nevertheless it can be used in association with other clinical and biological parameters to help determine patients who will benefit from the triple regiments. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01508286 PMID:26398503

  15. Recent advances in turbulence prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharya, Atreyee

    2012-08-01

    Turbulence in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (8-14 kilometers in altitude) is a well-known aviation hazard; it is the major cause of injuries and occasional fatalities to passengers and crew members on commercial aircraft. Jet streams, thunderstorms, flow over mountains, and even the passage of other aircraft cause turbulence. However, the lack of precise observational data (which is still mainly from pilots reporting turbulence) and a clear understanding of the processes that cause turbulence make it difficult to accurately forecast aviation-scale turbulence. Hence, upper troposphere and lower stratosphere turbulence forecasting is an area of active research.

  16. Ground-Based Cloud and Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observations for the Project: High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for Advancing Climate Prediction, HD(CP)2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirsikko, A.; Ebell, K.; Ulrich, U.; Schween, J. H.; Bohn, B.; Görsdorf, U.; Leinweber, R.; Päschke, E.; Baars, H.; Seifert, P.; Klein Baltink, H.

    2014-12-01

    The German research initiative ''High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction, HD(CP)2'' aims for an improved representation of clouds and precipitation in climate models. Model development and its evaluation require comprehensive observational datasets. A specific work package was established to create uniform and documented observational datasets for the HD(CP)2 data base. Datasets included ground-based remote-sensing (Doppler lidars, ceilometers, microwave radiometers, and cloud radars) and in-situ (meteorological and radiation sensors) measurements. Four supersites (Jülich ObservatorY for Cloud Evolution (JOYCE), Lindenberg Meteorological Observatory - Richard Assmann Observatory (RAO), and Leipzig Aerosol and Cloud Remote Observations System (LACROS) in Germany, and Cabauw experimental site for atmospheric research (Cesar) in the Netherlands) are finalizing the operational procedures to provide quality controlled (and calibrated if possible) remote-sensing and in-situ observations, retrievals on atmospheric boundary layer state (e.g. winds, mixing layer height, humidity and temperature), and cloud macro and micro physical properties with uncertainty estimations or at least quality flags. During the project new processing and retrieval methods were developed if no commonly agreed or satisfying methods were available. Especially, large progress was made concerning uncertainty estimation and automated quality control. Additionally, the data from JOYCE are used in a radiative closure studies under cloudy conditions to evaluate retrievals of cloud properties. The current status of work progress will be presented.

  17. The value of forceps biopsy and core needle biopsy in prediction of pathologic complete remission in locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Yuan-Hong; Liu, Guo-Chen; Kong, Ling-Heng; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Ding, Pei-Rong

    2015-01-01

    Patients with pathological complete remission (pCR) after treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) have better long-term outcome and may receive conservative treatments in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). The study aimed to evaluate the value of forceps biopsy and core needle biopsy in prediction of pCR in LARC treated with nCRT. In total, 120patients entered this study. Sixty-one consecutive patients received preoperative forceps biopsy during endoscopic examination. Ex vivo core needle biopsy was performed in resected specimens of another 43 consecutive patients. The accuracy for ex vivo core needle biopsy was significantly higher than forceps biopsy (76.7% vs. 36.1%; p < 0.001). The sensitivity for ex vivo core needle biopsy was significantly lower in good responder (TRG 3) than poor responder (TRG ≤ 2) (52.9% vs. 94.1%; p = 0.017). In vivo core needle biopsy was further performed in 16 patients with good response. Eleven patients had residual cancer cells in final resected specimens, among whom 4 (36.4%) patients were biopsy positive. In conclusion, routine forceps biopsy was of limited value in identifying pCR after nCRT. Although core needle biopsy might further identify a subset of patients with residual cancer cells, the accuracy was not substantially increased in good responders. PMID:26416245

  18. Does Response to Induction Chemotherapy Predict Survival for Locally Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer? Secondary Analysis of RTOG 8804/8808

    SciTech Connect

    McAleer, Mary Frances; Moughan, Jennifer M.S.; Byhardt, Roger W.; Cox, James D.; Sause, William T.; Komaki, Ritsuko

    2010-03-01

    Purpose: Induction chemotherapy (ICT) improves survival compared with radiotherapy (RT) alone in locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (LANSCLC) patients with good prognostic factors. Concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) is superior to ICT followed by RT. The question arises whether ICT response predicts the outcome of patients subsequently treated with CCRT or RT. Methods and Materials: Between 1988 and 1992, 194 LANSCLC patients were treated prospectively with ICT (two cycles of vinblastine and cisplatin) and then CCRT (cisplatin plus 63 Gy for 7 weeks) in the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 8804 trial (n = 30) or ICT and then RT (60 Gy/6 wk) on Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 8808 trial (n = 164). Of the 194 patients, 183 were evaluable and 141 had undergone a postinduction assessment. The overall survival (OS) of those with complete remission (CR) or partial remission (PR) was compared with that of patients with stable disease (SD) or progressive disease (PD) after ICT. Results: Of the 141 patients, 6, 30, 99, and 6 had CR, PR, SD, and PD, respectively. The log-rank test showed a significant difference (p <0.0001) in OS when the response groups were compared (CR/PR vs. SD/PD). On univariate and multivariate analyses, a trend was seen toward a response to ICT with OS (p = 0.097 and p = 0.06, respectively). A squamous histologic type was associated with worse OS on univariate and multivariate analyses (p = 0.031 and p = 0.018, respectively). SD/PD plus a squamous histologic type had a hazard ratio of 2.25 vs. CR/PR plus a nonsquamous histologic type (p = 0.007) on covariate analysis. Conclusion: The response to ICT was associated with a significant survival difference when the response groups were compared. A response to ICT showed a trend toward, but was not predictive of, improved OS in LANSCLC patients. Patients with SD/PD after ICT and a squamous histologic type had the poorest OS. These data suggest that patients with squamous LANSCLC might benefit

  19. Best estimation of spectrum profiles for diagnosing femoral prostheses loosening.

    PubMed

    Díaz-Pérez, Francisco; García-Nieto, Evelyn; Ros, Antonio; Claramunt, Rafael

    2014-02-01

    For the past few years, some authors have proposed several vibration analysis techniques to detect the prosthetic femoral stem loosening, having found some differences in the frequency response between secure and loose stems. Classical methods like periodogram have been used in most studies for the spectral estimation, and their conclusions have been reached only by visual inspection. A new metric called Non-linear Logarithmic Weighted Distance (NLWD), based on log-spectral distance is presented. As its name suggests, the spectral power is weighted in order to highlight discriminatory patterns of the spectral profiles. A Generalized Discriminant Ratio (GDR) based on NLWD metric has been also defined. In this study, experiments on a cadaveric dried bone with two kinds of fixation, Loose Stem class (LS) and Secure Stem class (SS), have been analyzed. To select the most discriminating approach to spectral estimation, five well known algorithms (Welch's, Burg's Auto-Regressive (AR), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA), Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) and Thomson's Multi-taper (MTM)) have been compared by using GDR. Finally, the use of the MTM method is proposed for the analysis of bone-stem interface vibratory signals, since it yields the most discriminatory profiles. PMID:24332977

  20. STAT3 polymorphisms may predict an unfavorable response to first-line platinum-based therapy for women with advanced serous epithelial ovarian cancer

    PubMed Central

    Permuth-Wey, Jennifer; Fulp, William J.; Reid, Brett M.; Chen, Zhihua; Georgeades, Christina; Cheng, Jin Q.; Magliocco, Anthony; Chen, Dung-Tsa; Lancaster, Johnathan M.

    2016-01-01

    Cancer stem cells (CSC) contribute to epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) progression and therapeutic response. We hypothesized that germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CSC-related genes may predict an initial therapeutic response for women newly diagnosed with EOC. A nested case–control design was used to study 361 women with advanced-stage serous EOC treated with surgery followed by first-line platinum-based combination therapy at Moffitt Cancer Center or as part of The Cancer Genome Atlas Study. “Cases” included 102 incomplete responders (IRs) and “controls” included 259 complete clinical responders (CRs) to therapy. Using Illumina genotyping arrays and imputation, DNA samples were evaluated for 5,509 SNPs in 24 ovarian CSC-related genes. We also evaluated the overall significance of each CSC gene using the admixture maximum likelihood (AML) test, and correlated genotype with EOC tumor tissue expression. The strongest SNP-level associations with an IR to therapy were identified for correlated (r2 > 0.80) SNPs within signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) [odds ratio (OR), 2.24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.32–3.78; p = 0.0027], after adjustment for age, population stratification, grade and residual disease. At the gene level, STAT3 was significantly associated with an IR to therapy (pAML 5 0.006). rs1053004, a STAT3 SNP in a putative miRNA-binding site, was associated with STAT3 expression (p = 0.057). This is the first study to identify germline STAT3 variants as independent predictors of an unfavorable therapeutic response for EOC patients. Findings suggest that STAT3 genotype may identify high-risk women likely to respond more favorably to novel therapeutic combinations that include STAT3 inhibitors. PMID:26264211

  1. KRAS and BRAF Mutations and PTEN Expression Do Not Predict Efficacy of Cetuximab-Based Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Erben, Philipp; Stroebel, Philipp; Horisberger, Karoline; Popa, Juliana; Bohn, Beatrice; Hanfstein, Benjamin; Kaehler, Georg; Kienle, Peter; Post, Stefan; Wenz, Frederik; Hochhaus, Andreas

    2011-11-15

    Purpose: Mutations in KRAS and BRAF genes as well as the loss of expression of phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) (deleted on chromosome 10) are associated with impaired activity of antibodies directed against epidermal growth factor receptor in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. The predictive and prognostic value of the KRAS and BRAF point mutations as well as PTEN expression in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with cetuximab-based neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy is unknown. Methods and Materials: We have conducted phase I and II trials of the combination of weekly administration of cetuximab and irinotecan and daily doses of capecitabine in conjunction with radiotherapy (45 Gy plus 5.4 Gy) in patients with LARC (stage uT3/4 or uN+). The status of KRAS and BRAF mutations was determined with direct sequencing, and PTEN expression status was determined with immunohistochemistry testing of diagnostic tumor biopsies. Tumor regression was evaluated by using standardized regression grading, and disease-free survival (DFS) was calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: A total of 57 patients were available for analyses. A total of 31.6% of patients carried mutations in the KRAS genes. No BRAF mutations were found, while the loss of PTEN expression was observed in 9.6% of patients. Six patients achieved complete remission, and the 3-year DFS rate was 73%. No correlation was seen between tumor regression or DFS rate and a single marker or a combination of all markers. Conclusions: In the present series, no BRAF mutation was detected. The presence of KRAS mutations and loss of PTEN expression were not associated with impaired response to cetuximab-based chemoradiotherapy and 3-year DFS.

  2. The Clinical Usefulness of 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography (PET) to Predict Oncologic Outcomes and PET-Based Radiotherapeutic Considerations in Locally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Yoon, Hong In; Kim, Kyung Hwan; Lee, Jeongshim; Roh, Yun Ho; Yun, Mijin; Cho, Byoung Chul; Lee, Chang Geol; Keum, Ki Chang

    2016-01-01

    Purpose We investigated 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET)-derived parameters as prognostic indices for disease progression and survival in locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and the effect of high-dose radiotherapy for a subpopulation with PET-based poor prognoses. Materials and Methods Ninety-seven stage III and Iva-b NPC patients who underwent definitive treatment and PET were reviewed. For each primary, nodal, and whole tumor, maximum standardized uptake value, metabolic tumor volume, and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were evaluated. Results Based on the C-index (0.666) and incremental area under the curve (0.669), the whole tumor TLGwas the most useful predictorfor progression-free survival (PFS); thewhole tumor TLG cut-off value showing the best predictive performance was 322.7. In multivariate analysis, whole tumor TLG was a significant prognostic factor for PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14 to 0.65; p=0.002) and OS (HR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.79; p=0.02). Patients with low whole tumor TLG showed the higher 5-year PFS in the subgroup for only patients receiving intensity modulated radiotherapy (77.4% vs. 53.0%, p=0.01). In the subgroup of patients with high whole tumor TLG, patients receiving an EQD2 ≥ 70 Gy showed significantly greater complete remission rates (71.4% vs. 33.3%, p=0.03) and higher 5-year OS (74.7% vs. 19.6%, p=0.02). Conclusion Our findings demonstrated that whole tumor TLG could be an independent prognostic factor and high-dose radiotherapy could improve outcomes for NPC showing high whole tumor TLG. PMID:26693913

  3. STAT3 polymorphisms may predict an unfavorable response to first-line platinum-based therapy for women with advanced serous epithelial ovarian cancer.

    PubMed

    Permuth-Wey, Jennifer; Fulp, William J; Reid, Brett M; Chen, Zhihua; Georgeades, Christina; Cheng, Jin Q; Magliocco, Anthony; Chen, Dung-Tsa; Lancaster, Johnathan M

    2016-02-01

    Cancer stem cells (CSC) contribute to epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) progression and therapeutic response. We hypothesized that germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CSC-related genes may predict an initial therapeutic response for women newly diagnosed with EOC. A nested case-control design was used to study 361 women with advanced-stage serous EOC treated with surgery followed by first-line platinum-based combination therapy at Moffitt Cancer Center or as part of The Cancer Genome Atlas Study. "Cases" included 102 incomplete responders (IRs) and "controls" included 259 complete clinical responders (CRs) to therapy. Using Illumina genotyping arrays and imputation, DNA samples were evaluated for 5,509 SNPs in 24 ovarian CSC-related genes. We also evaluated the overall significance of each CSC gene using the admixture maximum likelihood (AML) test, and correlated genotype with EOC tumor tissue expression. The strongest SNP-level associations with an IR to therapy were identified for correlated (r(2) > 0.80) SNPs within signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) [odds ratio (OR), 2.24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.32-3.78; p = 0.0027], after adjustment for age, population stratification, grade and residual disease. At the gene level, STAT3 was significantly associated with an IR to therapy (pAML = 0.006). rs1053004, a STAT3 SNP in a putative miRNA-binding site, was associated with STAT3 expression (p = 0.057). This is the first study to identify germline STAT3 variants as independent predictors of an unfavorable therapeutic response for EOC patients. Findings suggest that STAT3 genotype may identify high-risk women likely to respond more favorably to novel therapeutic combinations that include STAT3 inhibitors. PMID:26264211

  4. Polymorphisms of ERCC1 and XRCC1 predict the overall survival of advanced gastric cancer patients receiving oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Lijian; Yao, Ruyong; Fang, Shibao; Wang, Xiuwen; Li, Xin

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the clinical outcome of excision repair cross-complementing protein 1 (ERCC1) and X-ray repair cross-complementing protein 1 (XRCC1) gene polymorphisms in 89 patients receiving oxaliplatin/5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy as a first-line treatment regimen for advanced gastric cancer. ERCC1 codon 118C/T and XRCC1 codon 399A/G polymorphisms were identified using quantitative polymerase chain reactions, and the associations between disease control rate (DCR), median overall survival (mOS) and gene polymorphisms were analyzed. Following two cycles of chemotherapy, a complete response was observed in two patients, a partial response in 18 patients, stable disease in 38 patients and progressive disease in 31 patients. It was determined that ERCC1 and XRCC1 polymorphisms are not associated with DCR (P=0.662 and P=0.631, respectively). The mOS of patients exhibiting ERCC1 and XRCC1 polymorphisms was eight months, and although no significant association was identified between ERCC1 codon 118 genotypes and mOS (P>0.05), the combination of ERCC1 and XRCC1 polymorphisms, as well as the specific presence of the XRCC1 codon 399A/G polymorphism, was associated with mOS (P<0.05). Thus, the present study indicated that the XRCC1 polymorphism and the combination of XRCC1 and ERCC1 polymorphisms were independent predictors for mOS; however, the XRCC1 and ERCC1 genes were not able to predict the DCR. PMID:26770441

  5. Pelvic Lymph Node Status Assessed by 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Predicts Low-Risk Group for Distant Recurrence in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer: A Prospective Study

    SciTech Connect

    Kang, Sokbom; Park, Jung-Yeol; Lim, Myung-Chul; Song, Yong-Joong; Park, Se-Hyun; Kim, Seok-Ki; Chung, Dae-Chul; Seo, Sang-Soo; Kim, Joo-Young; Park, Sang-Yoon

    2011-03-01

    Purpose: To develop a prediction model to identify a low-risk group for distant recurrence in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer treated by concurrent chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: Prospectively, 62 patients with locally advanced cervical cancer were recruited as a training cohort. Clinical variables and parameters obtained from positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging were analyzed by logistic regression. For the test set, 54 patients were recruited independently. To identify the low-risk group, negative likelihood ratio (LR) less than 0.2 was set to be a cutoff. Results: Among the training cohort, multivariate logistic analysis revealed that advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage and a high serum squamous cancer cell (SCC) antigen level were significant risk factors (p = 0.015 and 0.025, respectively). Using the two parameters, criteria to determine a low-risk subset for distant recurrence were postulated: (1) FIGO Stage IIB or less and (2) pretreatment SCC < 2.4 (Model A). Positive pelvic node on PET completely predicted all cases with distant recurrence and thus was considered as another prediction model (Model B). In the test cohort, although Model A did not showed diagnostic performance, Model B completely predicted all cases with distant recurrence and showed a sensitivity of 100% with negative LR of 0. Across the training and test cohort (n = 116), the false negative rate was 0 (95% confidence interval 0%-7.6%). Conclusions: Positive pelvic node on PET is a useful marker in prediction of distant recurrence in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer who are treated with concurrent chemoradiation.

  6. The Effect of an Advanced Organizer and the Predictive Ability of Micro-Learning Tasks When Utilized with Carefully Sequenced Audio-Tutorial Units.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kahle, Jane Butler

    Four audio-tutorial units were developed as part of this study to determine the effectiveness of the use of advanced organizers, based on Ausubel's theories, for meaningful learning experiences. In this study an advanced organizer was developed and given to half of the subjects prior to the instructional sequence. A series of micro-learning tasks,…

  7. Low Levels of IgM Antibodies against an Advanced Glycation Endproduct-Modified Apolipoprotein B100 Peptide Predict Cardiovascular Events in Nondiabetic Subjects.

    PubMed

    Engelbertsen, Daniel; Vallejo, Jenifer; Quách, Tâm Dan; Fredrikson, Gunilla Nordin; Alm, Ragnar; Hedblad, Bo; Björkbacka, Harry; Rothstein, Thomas L; Nilsson, Jan; Bengtsson, Eva

    2015-10-01

    Increased glucose levels are associated with the generation of advanced glycation endproduct (AGE) modifications. Interaction between AGE-modified plaque components and immune cells is believed to have an important role in the development of vascular complications in diabetes. Methylglyoxal (MGO) is one type of reactive aldehyde that gives rise to AGE modification. The present study analyzed whether autoantibodies against MGO-modified epitopes of the low-density lipoprotein apolipoprotein B (apoB) 100 predict cardiovascular events. A library consisting of 302 peptides comprising the complete apoB100 molecule was screened to identify peptides targeted by MGO-specific autoantibodies. Peptide (p) 220 (apoB amino acids 3286-3305) was identified as a major target. Baseline IgM and IgG against MGO-peptide 220 (p220) were measured in 700 individuals from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Cohort. A total of 139 cardiovascular events were registered during the 15-y follow-up period. Controlling for major cardiovascular risk factors demonstrated that subjects in the lowest tertile of MGO-p220 IgM had an increased risk for cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 2.07 [1.22-3.50]; p(trend) = 0.004). Interestingly, the association between MGO-p220 IgM and cardiovascular events remained and even tended to become stronger when subjects with prevalent diabetes were excluded from the analysis (2.51 [1.37-4.61]; p(trend) = 0.002). MGO-p220 IgM was inversely associated with blood glucose, but not with oxidized low-density lipoprotein. Finally, we demonstrate that anti-MGO-p220 IgM is produced by B1 cells. These data show that subjects with low levels of IgM recognizing MGO-modified p220 in apoB have an increased risk to develop cardiovascular events and that this association is present in nondiabetic subjects. PMID:26290603

  8. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1991-01-01

    The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

  9. Earth Observing System/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (EOS/AMSU-A): Reliability prediction report for module A1 (channels 3 through 15) and module A2 (channels 1 and 2)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geimer, W.

    1995-01-01

    This report documents the final reliability prediction performed on the Earth Observing System/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (EOS/AMSU-A). The A1 Module contains Channels 3 through 15, and is referred to herein as 'EOS/AMSU-A1'. The A2 Module contains Channels 1 and 2, and is referred herein as 'EOS/AMSU-A2'. The 'specified' figures were obtained from Aerojet Reports 8897-1 and 9116-1. The predicted reliability figure for the EOS/AMSU-A1 meets the specified value and provides a Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of 74,390 hours. The predicted reliability figure for the EOS/AMSU-A2 meets the specified value and provides a MTBF of 193,110 hours.

  10. Predictions of the Impacts of Future Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Development on Regional Ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, A.; Adams, P. J.; Robinson, A. L.

    2012-12-01

    Recent discovery of shale gas reserves, combined with advances in drilling and fracturing technology, are leading to extensive development of natural gas in the Marcellus Shale formation which underlies parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and New York. To assess the impacts of this development on regional air quality, we have constructed a VOC, NOx and PM2.5 emissions inventory for the development and production of gas from the Marcellus formation. In 2020, we estimate that Marcellus activities will contribute about 12% to both regional NOx and VOC emissions. These numbers were obtained as a best estimate (mean) from a distribution obtained through several Monte Carlo runs. We speciated these emissions for use in a 3-D chemical transport model (PMCAMx) to simulate their effects on regional ozone. The projected Marcellus emissions for 2020 were added to a 2007 base inventory developed from the NEI. We have performed multiple simulations to investigate the effects of Marcellus development on regional air quality. The model predicts significant ozone changes in the Marcellus region with a uniform increase of few ppb across a wide region of the Northeast. Sensitivity studies are being performed to investigate the effects of emissions controls and sensitivity to VOC and NOx emissions.

  11. Using the PSAT/NMSQT and Course Grades in Predicting Success in the Advanced Placement Program®. Report No. 98-4

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Camara, Wayne J.; Millsap, Roger

    1998-01-01

    This study reports that student performance on the PSAT/NMSQT can be useful in identifying additional students who may be successful in Advanced Placement Program (AP) courses. PSAT/NMSQT scores can identify students who may not have been initially considered for an AP course through teacher nomination, self-nomination, or other local procedures.…

  12. Preoperative Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Long-term Survival in Patients Undergoing Total Laryngectomy With Advanced Laryngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Fu, Yan; Liu, Weiwei; OuYang, Dian; Yang, Ankui; Zhang, Quan

    2016-01-01

    Abstract There is increasing evidence that the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a stage-independent predictor of poor outcome in patients with cancer. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between cancer-specific survival (CSS), overall survival (OS), and the preoperative NLR in patients with advanced laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) undergoing total laryngectomy (TL). All patients with a new diagnosis of advanced laryngeal cancer (stages III and IV) presenting at the Department of Head and Neck Oncology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between January 1990 and July 2010 (n = 420) were included. To evaluate the independent prognostic relevance of the NLR, univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used. CSS and OS were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Four-hundred twenty patients were enrolled in this study. Patients with an NLR ≥2.59 showed a significantly lower CSS (P = .014) and OS (P = .032) than patients with an NLR <2.59. The Cox proportional multivariate hazard model showed that a higher preoperative NLR was independently correlated with a poor CSS and OS, with hazard ratios of 1.42 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06–1.91, P = .018) and 1.31 (95% CI 1.00–1.71, P = .046), respectively. The NLR may be an independent prognostic marker for CSS and OS in patients with advanced LSCC undergoing TL. PMID:26871799

  13. Tumor response and survival in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer: the predictive value of chemotherapy-induced changes in fibrinogen

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Hyperfibrinogenemia is a common problem associated with various carcinomas, and is accompanied by hypercoagulablity. In advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) it remains unclear whether or not chemotherapy-induced changes in fibrinogen level relate to chemotherapeutic response and prognosis. The purposes of this study were to: 1) analyze the association between chemotherapy-induced changes in plasma fibrinogen level and the chemotherapeutic response after the first two courses of standard first-line platinum-based chemotherapy; and 2) evaluate the prognostic significance of the basal plasma fibrinogen level in patients with advanced NSCLC. Methods In this retrospective study, the data from 160 patients with advanced NSCLC were collected. The association between the changes in fibrinogen and the response to chemotherapy, or between the pre-and post-chemotherapy fibrinogen levels and patient clinical characteristics, were analyzed using SPSS software. In addition, the prognostic value of pre-chemotherapy fibrinogen levels was assessed. Results The median pre-chemotherapy plasma fibrinogen level was 4.4 g/L. Pre-chemotherapy plasma fibrinogen levels correlated significantly with gender (p = 0.041). Post-chemotherapy plasma fibrinogen levels correlated with gender (p = 0.023), age (p = 0.018), ECOG (p = 0.002) and tumor response (p = 0.049). Plasma fibrinogen levels markedly decreased after chemotherapy in 98 (61.25 %) patients with pre-chemotherapy hyperfibrinogenemia (p = 0.008); and in this population there was a significant link between the decrease in fibrinogen level, and initial partial response (PR; p = 0.017) and stable disease (SD; p = 0.031). Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed that higher levels of fibrinogen (≥4.4 g/L) and ECOG 1 were positively associated with shorter overall survival (OS). CEA and CA125 also decreased significantly (p =0.015, p =0.000) in DCR group after chemotherapy. Conclusions This study showed that the

  14. Optimal tumor shrinkage predicts long-term outcome in advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with target therapy: Result from 3 clinical trials of advanced NSCLC by 1 institution.

    PubMed

    He, Xiaobo; Zhang, Yang; Ma, Yuxiang; Zhou, Ting; Zhang, Jianwei; Hong, Shaodong; Sheng, Jin; Zhang, Zhonghan; Yang, Yunpeng; Huang, Yan; Zhang, Li; Zhao, Hongyun

    2016-08-01

    Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are used as standard therapies for advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with EGFR mutation positive. Because these targeted therapies could cause tumor necrosis and shrinkage, the purpose of the study is to search for a value of optimal tumor shrinkage as an appropriate indicator of outcome for advanced NSCLC.A total of 88 NSCLC enrollees of 3 clinical trials (IRESSA registration clinical trial, TRUST study and ZD6474 study), who received Gefitinib (250 mg, QD), Erlotinib (150 mg, QD), and ZD6474 (100 mg, QD), respectively, during December 2003 and October 2007, were retrospectively analyzed. The response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST) were used to identify responders, who had complete response (CR) or partial responses (PR) and nonresponders who had stable disease (SD) or progressive disease (PD). Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was used to find the optimal tumor shrinkage as an indicator for tumor therapeutic outcome. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to compare the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) between responders and nonresponders stratified based on radiologic criteria.Among the 88 NSCLC patients, 26 were responders and 62 were nonresponders based on RECIST 1.0. ROC indicated that 8.32% tumor diameter shrinkage in the sum of the longest tumor diameter (SLD) was the cutoff point of tumor shrinkage outcomes, resulting in 46 responders (≤8.32%) and 42 nonresponders (≥8.32%). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that (1) the responders (≤8.32%) and nonresponders (≥ -8.32%) were significantly different in median PFS (13.40 vs 1.17 months, P < 0.001) and OS (19.80 vs 7.90 months, P < 0.001) and (2) -8.32% in SLD could be used as the optimal threshold for PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 8.11, 95% CI, 3.75 to 17.51, P < 0.001) and OS (HR, 2.36, 95

  15. Results and lessons of the 10 years experiment of large earthquake prediction made in advance with a lead time months using Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shebalin, P.

    2013-12-01

    The experiment in prospective documented earthquake prediction using the algorithm Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) has been started in June 2003. The algorithm is based on the analysis of a set of intermediate-term precursors in an area of a short term long-range activation of seismicity, detected by earthquake chains. Earthquake chains are clusters of moderate-size earthquakes which extend over large distances and are formed by statistically rare pairs of events that are close in space and time. We put predictions on record at http://www.rtptest.org (with a restricted access to current predictions). Predictions are not deterministic: they are expected to be true with some probability exceeding 50%. During the period June 2003 to August 2013, 30 predictions were put on record, five of them were extended in modified area to longer intervals than standard 9 months. Those prolongations are not considered as separate predictions because they largely intersect in time and space with corresponding initial ones. Six earthquakes out of ten have been predicted (Hokkaido earthquake, September, 25, 2003, Mw=8.3; San-Simeon earthquake in California, 25 December, 2003, M=6.5, earthquake in the sea near Sendai, Japan, August 16, 2005, Mw=7.2; Simushir earthquake, Kuril Islands, November 15, 2006, Mw=8.3, Andreanoff Islands earthquake, December 19, 2007, M=7.2; Tohoku earthquake, March 11, 2011, M=9.1, Kurile Islands earthquake, April 19, 2013, M=7.2 and Okhotsk sea earthquake, May 24, 2013, M=8.3). Four earthquakes, in 2009 to 2012, have been missed. One of them is the Aquila earthquake in Central Italy, April 6th, 2009, M=6.3. We might suppose that this miss was due to an evident increase of the magnitude cut-off in the PDE catalogue we use for RTP in Italy. We have tried to complement retrospectively the catalogue with data from CSEM. However, the alarm prior to the Aquila earthquake still was not diagnosed. For three other earthquakes the situation is different. We

  16. A storm modeling system as an advanced tool in prediction of well organized slowly moving convective cloud system and early warning of severe weather risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiridonov, Vlado; Curic, Mladjen

    2015-02-01

    Short-range prediction of precipitation is a critical input to flood prediction and hence the accuracy of flood warnings. Since most of the intensive processes come from convective clouds-the primary aim is to forecast these small-scale atmospheric processes. One characteristic pattern of organized group of convective clouds consist of a line of deep convection resulted in the repeated passage of heavy-rain-producing convective cells over NW part of Macedonia along the line. This slowly moving convective system produced extreme local rainfall and hailfall in urban Skopje city. A 3-d cloud model is used to simulate the main storm characteristic (e.g., structure, intensity, evolution) and the main physical processes responsible for initiation of heavy rainfall and hailfall. The model showed a good performance in producing significantly more realistic and spatially accurate forecasts of convective rainfall event than is possible with current operational system. The output results give a good initial input for developing appropriate tools such as flooding indices and potential risk mapping for interpreting and presenting the predictions so that they enhance operational flood prediction capabilities and warnings of severe weather risk of weather services. Convective scale model-even for a single case used has proved significant benefits in several aspects (initiation of convection, storm structure and evolution and precipitation). The storm-scale model (grid spacing-1 km) is capable of producing significantly more realistic and spatially accurate forecasts of convective rainfall events than is possible with current operational systems based on model with grid spacing 15 km.

  17. Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hunter, H. E.; Amato, R. A.

    1972-01-01

    The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

  18. The Value of 18F-FDG PET/CT Imaging Combined With Pretherapeutic Ki67 for Early Prediction of Pathologic Response After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Jurui; Zhou, Zhirui; Yang, Zhaozhi; Chen, Xingxing; Cheng, Jinyi; Shao, Zhimin; Guo, Xiaomao; Tuan, Jeffrey; Fu, Xiaolong; Yu, Xiaoli

    2016-01-01

    Abstract To evaluate the value of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) and pretherapeutic Ki67 in predicting pathologic response in locally advanced breast cancer (LABC) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). As a training set, total 301 LABC patients treated with NAC were retrospectively analyzed to evaluate the potential predictive value of pretherapeutic Ki67 for pathologic complete response (pCR) after NAC. Another 60 LABC patients were prospectively included as a validation set to evaluate the value of Ki67 combined PET/CT as pCR predictors. Ki67 was assessed in pretherapy core needle biopsy specimens and PET/CT scans were performed at baseline (before initiating NAC), after the 2nd, and 4th cycle of NAC. Maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) and its changes relative to baseline (ΔSUVmax%) were used as parameters of PEC/CT. In the training set, Ki67 was a predictor of pCR to NAC, with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.624 (P = 0.003) in receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. In the validation set, Ki67 alone did not show significant value in predicting pCR in the validation set. ΔSUVmax% after then 2nd or 4th course are predictors of pCR to NAC with the AUC of 0.774 (P = 0.002) and 0.791 (P = 0.002), respectively. When combined with ΔSUVmax% after the 2nd and 4th course NAC, Ki67 increased the value of ΔSUVmax% in predicting pCR with the AUC of 0.824 (P = 0.001). Baseline SUVmax and after 2nd, 4th course NAC had no predictive value for pCR, but SUVmax after the 2nd and 4th course showed remarkable predictive value for nonpathologic response (Grade 1 in Miller-Payne Grading System) with the AUC of 0.898 (P = 0.0001) and 0.801 (P = 0.003). Both PET/CT and Ki67 can predict pCR to NAC in LABC patients in the early phases of treatment. PET/CT combined Ki67 is a better pCR predictor for response to NAC. This helps the physician to predict the probability of pCR, and

  19. Karnofsky Performance Status and Lactate Dehydrogenase Predict the Benefit of Palliative Whole-Brain Irradiation in Patients With Advanced Intra- and Extracranial Metastases From Malignant Melanoma

    SciTech Connect

    Partl, Richard; Richtig, Erika; Avian, Alexander; Berghold, Andrea; Kapp, Karin S.

    2013-03-01

    Purpose: To determine prognostic factors that allow the selection of melanoma patients with advanced intra- and extracerebral metastatic disease for palliative whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) or best supportive care. Methods and Materials: This was a retrospective study of 87 patients who underwent palliative WBRT between 1988 and 2009 for progressive or multiple cerebral metastases at presentation. Uni- and multivariate analysis took into account the following patient- and tumor-associated factors: gender and age, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), neurologic symptoms, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, number of intracranial metastases, previous resection or stereotactic radiosurgery of brain metastases, number of extracranial metastasis sites, and local recurrences as well as regional lymph node metastases at the time of WBRT. Results: In univariate analysis, KPS, LDH, number of intracranial metastases, and neurologic symptoms had a significant influence on overall survival. In multivariate survival analysis, KPS and LDH remained as significant prognostic factors, with hazard ratios of 3.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-6.5) and 2.8 (95% CI 1.6-4.9), respectively. Patients with KPS ≥70 and LDH ≤240 U/L had a median survival of 191 days; patients with KPS ≥70 and LDH >240 U/L, 96 days; patients with KPS <70 and LDH ≤240 U/L, 47 days; and patients with KPS <70 and LDH >240 U/L, only 34 days. Conclusions: Karnofsky performance status and serum LDH values indicate whether patients with advanced intra- and extracranial tumor manifestations are candidates for palliative WBRT or best supportive care.

  20. Serum Anion Gap Predicts All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease: A Retrospective Analysis of a Randomized Controlled Study

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Sung Woo; Kim, Sejoong; Na, Ki Young; Cha, Ran-hui; Kang, Shin Wook; Park, Cheol Whee; Cha, Dae Ryong; Kim, Sung Gyun; Yoon, Sun Ae; Han, Sang Youb; Park, Jung Hwan; Chang, Jae Hyun; Lim, Chun Soo; Kim, Yon Su

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objectives Cardiovascular outcomes and mortality rates are poor in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Novel risk factors related to clinical outcomes should be identified. Methods A retrospective analysis of data from a randomized controlled study was performed in 440 CKD patients aged > 18 years, with estimated glomerular filtration rate 15–60 mL/min/1.73m2. Clinical data were available, and the albumin-adjusted serum anion gap (A-SAG) could be calculated. The outcome analyzed was all-cause mortality. Results Of 440 participants, the median (interquartile range, IQR) follow-up duration was 5.1 (3.0–5.5) years. During the follow-up duration, 29 participants died (all-cause mortality 6.6%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of A-SAG for all-cause mortality was 0.616 (95% CI 0.520–0.712, P = 0.037). The best threshold of A-SAG for all-cause mortality was 9.48 mmol/L, with sensitivity 0.793 and specificity 0.431. After adjusting for confounders, A-SAG above 9.48 mmol/L was independently associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, with hazard ratio 2.968 (95% CI 1.143–7.708, P = 0.025). In our study, serum levels of beta-2 microglobulin and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were positively associated with A-SAG. Conclusions A-SAG is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in advanced CKD patients. The positive correlation between A-SAG and serum beta-2 microglobulin or BUN might be a potential reason. Future study is needed. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT 00860431 PMID:27249416

  1. Predictive modeling of complications.

    PubMed

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions. PMID:27286683

  2. Quantification of dynamic contrast-enhanced ultrasound in HCC: prediction of response to a new combination therapy of sorafenib and panobinostat in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Knieling, Ferdinand; Waldner, Maximilian J; Goertz, Ruediger S; Strobel, Deike

    2012-01-01

    Here, we report the case of a patient, who showed an antitumour response to a new combination therapy of sorafenib and the histon deacetylase inhibitor panobinostat (LBH-589). D-CEUS (Dynamic contrast-enhanced ultrasonography) was able to predict response to the new therapy regime and may be an interesting tool in the early evaluation of response to therapy. It might be especially useful to differentiate between responders and non-responders of new-targeted pharmaceuticals like multikinase inhibitors in hepatocellular carcinomas. PMID:23257272

  3. Predictions of human tolerance to cold water immersion while wearning advanced integrated garment ensembles with and without survival rafts or exogenous heating. Final report, April-September 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Shender, B.S.; Kaufman, J.

    1993-12-30

    US Navy interest in garments providing integrated protection against chemical agents, hyperthermia, hypobaria, and hypothermia has led to fabrication of prototype multi-purpose garments. As part of the development process, these garments need to be tested for the protection they provide against these hazards. Mathematical modeling can be used to simulate the thermal protection provided by the various garment designs and minimize laboratory testing. It can also be used to establish guidelines on the amount of clothing insulation required to withstand exposures of various durations under conditions of thermal stress. This paper reports on the theoretical evaluation of hypothermia protection provided by various tactical aircrew garments during simulated head-out cold water immersion (CWI) using the Texas Human Thermal Model (10) (referred to THTM, below), as modified by the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division Warminster for use with low CLO values (7). THTM can aid in clothing design by allowing specification of insulation values for up to fifteen body segments. This is an improvement over earlier work (8), in which researchers based their conclusions on an overall mean CLO value for garments. Also included in this paper is an algorithm to predict the effects of using open and closed survival rafts while wearing a CWU-62/P on rectal and mean skin temperature during survival scenarios. Lastly, THTM was used to predict the amount of exogenous heating required to survive 6 hour CWI while wearing CWU-27YP and CWU-62/P garment ensembles.

  4. Predictions of human tolerance to cold water immersion while wearing advanced integrated garment ensembles with and without survival rafts or exogenous heating. Final report, April-September 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Shender, B.S.; Kaufman, J.

    1993-12-30

    US Navy interest in garments providing integrated protection against chemical agents, hyperthermia, hypobaria, and hypothermia has led to fabrication of prototype multi-purpose garments. As part of the development process, these garments need to be tested for the protection they provide against these hazards. Mathematical modeling can be used to simulate the thermal protection provided by the various garment designs and minimize laboratory testing. It can also be used to establish guidelines on the amount of clothing insulation required to withstand exposures of various durations under conditions of thermal stress. This paper reports on the theoretical evaluation of hypothermia protection provided by various tactical aircrew garments during simulated head-out cold water immersion (CWI) using the Texas Human Thermal Model (10) (referred to THTM, below), as modified by the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division THTM for use with low CLO values (7). THTM can aid in clothing design by allowing specification of insulation values for up to fifteen body segments. This is an improvement over earlier work (8), in which researchers based their conclusions on an overall mean THTM value for garments. Also included in this paper is an algorithm to predict the effects of using open and closed survival rafts while wearing a CWU-62/P on rectal and mean skin temperature during survival scenarios. Lastly, THTM was used to predict the amount of exogenous heating required to survive 6 hour CWI while wearing CWU-27/P and CWU-62/P garment ensembles.

  5. A Significant Statistical Advancement on the Predictive Values of ERCC1 Polymorphisms for Clinical Outcomes of Platinum-Based Chemotherapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: An Updated Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Han, Yali; Liu, Jie; Sun, Meili; Zhang, Zongpu; Liu, Chuanyong; Sun, Yuping

    2016-01-01

    Background. There is no definitive conclusion so far on the predictive values of ERCC1 polymorphisms for clinical outcomes of platinum-based chemotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We updated this meta-analysis with an expectation to obtain some statistical advancement on this issue. Methods. Relevant studies were identified by searching MEDLINE, EMBASE databases from inception to April 2015. Primary outcomes included objective response rate (ORR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). All analyses were performed using the Review Manager version 5.3 and the Stata version 12.0. Results. A total of 33 studies including 5373 patients were identified. ERCC1 C118T and C8092A could predict both ORR and OS for platinum-based chemotherapy in Asian NSCLC patients (CT + TT versus CC, ORR: OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.67–0.94; OS: HR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.01–1.53) (CA + AA versus CC, ORR: OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.60–0.96; OS: HR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.06–1.75). Conclusions. Current evidence strongly indicated the prospect of ERCC1 C118T and C8092A as predictive biomarkers for platinum-based chemotherapy in Asian NSCLC patients. However, the results should be interpreted with caution and large prospective studies are still required to further investigate these findings. PMID:27057082

  6. Low levels of Caspase-3 predict favourable response to 5FU-based chemotherapy in advanced colorectal cancer: Caspase-3 inhibition as a therapeutic approach

    PubMed Central

    Flanagan, L; Meyer, M; Fay, J; Curry, S; Bacon, O; Duessmann, H; John, K; Boland, K C; McNamara, D A; Kay, E W; Bantel, H; Schulze-Bergkamen, H; Prehn, J H M

    2016-01-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers in the Western world. 5-Fluorouracil (5FU)-based chemotherapy (CT) remains the mainstay treatment of CRC in the advanced setting, and activates executioner caspases in target cells. Executioner caspases are key proteins involved in cell disassembly during apoptosis. Activation of executioner caspases also has a role in tissue regeneration and repopulation by stimulating signal transduction and cell proliferation in neighbouring, non-apoptotic cells as reported recently. Tissue microarrays (TMAs) consisting of tumour tissue from 93 stage II and III colon cancer patients were analysed by immunohistochemistry. Surprisingly, patients with low levels of active Caspase-3 had an increased disease-free survival time. This was particularly pronounced in patients who received 5FU-based adjuvant CT. In line with this observation, lower serum levels of active Caspase-3 were found in patients with metastasised CRC who revealed stable disease or tumour regression compared with those with disease progression. The role of Caspase-3 in treatment responses was explored further in primary human tumour explant cultures from fresh patient tumour tissue. Exposure of explant cultures to 5FU-based CT increased the percentage of cells positive for active Caspase-3 and Terminal Deoxynucleotidyl Transferase dUTP Nick end Labelling (TUNEL), but also the expression of regeneration and proliferation markers β-Catenin and Ki-67, as well as cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2). Of note, selective inhibition of Caspase-3 with Ac-DNLD-CHO, a selective, reversible inhibitor of Caspase-3, significantly reduced the expression of proliferation markers as well as COX-2. Inhibition of COX-2 with aspirin or celecoxib did not affect Caspase-3 levels but also reduced Ki-67 and β-Catenin levels, suggesting that Caspase-3 acted via COX-2 to stimulate cell proliferation and tissue regeneration. This indicates that low levels of active Caspase-3 may represent a

  7. Low levels of Caspase-3 predict favourable response to 5FU-based chemotherapy in advanced colorectal cancer: Caspase-3 inhibition as a therapeutic approach.

    PubMed

    Flanagan, L; Meyer, M; Fay, J; Curry, S; Bacon, O; Duessmann, H; John, K; Boland, K C; McNamara, D A; Kay, E W; Bantel, H; Schulze-Bergkamen, H; Prehn, J H M

    2016-01-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers in the Western world. 5-Fluorouracil (5FU)-based chemotherapy (CT) remains the mainstay treatment of CRC in the advanced setting, and activates executioner caspases in target cells. Executioner caspases are key proteins involved in cell disassembly during apoptosis. Activation of executioner caspases also has a role in tissue regeneration and repopulation by stimulating signal transduction and cell proliferation in neighbouring, non-apoptotic cells as reported recently. Tissue microarrays (TMAs) consisting of tumour tissue from 93 stage II and III colon cancer patients were analysed by immunohistochemistry. Surprisingly, patients with low levels of active Caspase-3 had an increased disease-free survival time. This was particularly pronounced in patients who received 5FU-based adjuvant CT. In line with this observation, lower serum levels of active Caspase-3 were found in patients with metastasised CRC who revealed stable disease or tumour regression compared with those with disease progression. The role of Caspase-3 in treatment responses was explored further in primary human tumour explant cultures from fresh patient tumour tissue. Exposure of explant cultures to 5FU-based CT increased the percentage of cells positive for active Caspase-3 and Terminal Deoxynucleotidyl Transferase dUTP Nick end Labelling (TUNEL), but also the expression of regeneration and proliferation markers β-Catenin and Ki-67, as well as cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2). Of note, selective inhibition of Caspase-3 with Ac-DNLD-CHO, a selective, reversible inhibitor of Caspase-3, significantly reduced the expression of proliferation markers as well as COX-2. Inhibition of COX-2 with aspirin or celecoxib did not affect Caspase-3 levels but also reduced Ki-67 and β-Catenin levels, suggesting that Caspase-3 acted via COX-2 to stimulate cell proliferation and tissue regeneration. This indicates that low levels of active Caspase-3 may represent a

  8. Prediction of Response to Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy in Patients With Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer by Means of Sequential 18FDG-PET

    SciTech Connect

    Everaert, Hendrik; Hoorens, Anne; Vanhove, Christian; Sermeus, Alexandra; Ceulemans, Gaetane; Engels, Benedikt; Vermeersch, Marieke; Verellen, Dirk; Urbain, Daniel; Storme, Guy; De Ridder, Mark

    2011-05-01

    Purpose: Morphologic imaging techniques perform poorly in assessing the response to preoperative radiotherapy (RT), mainly because of desmoplastic reactions. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential of sequential 18-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (18FDG-PET) in assessing the response of rectal cancer to neoadjuvant RT and to determine which parameters can be used as surrogate markers for histopathologic response. Methods and Materials: 18FDG-PET scans were acquired before and during the 5th week after the end of RT. Tracer uptake was assessed semiquantitatively using standardized uptake values (SUV). The percentage differences (%{Delta}) between pre- and post-RT scans in SUV{sub max}, SUV{sub mean}, metabolic volume (MV), and total glycolytic volume (tGV) were calculated. Results: Forty-five consecutive patients with histologically confirmed rectal adenocarcinoma were enrolled. After neoadjuvant RT, 20 of the 45 patients were classified as histopathologic responders and 25 as non-responders. Intense 18F-FDG uptake was seen in all tumors before neoadjuvant RT (average SUV{sub max} 12.9 {+-} 6.0). When patients were classified as histologic responders and nonresponders, significant differences in %{Delta}SUV{sub max} (55.8% vs. 37.4%, p = 0.023) and %{Delta}SUV{sub mean} (40.1% vs. 21.0%, p = 0.001) were observed between the two groups. For %{Delta}MV and %{Delta}tGV, decreases were more prominent in responders but were not significantly different from those in nonresponders. As demonstrated by receiver operating characteristic analysis, %{Delta}SUV{sub mean} was a more powerful discriminator than was %{Delta}SUV{sub max}. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for optimal threshold of %{Delta}SUV{sub mean} (24.5%) were 80%, 72%, 76%, 70%, and 82% respectively. Conclusion: Sequential 18FDG-PET allows assessment of the response to preoperative RT. Both %{Delta}SUV{sub mean} and %{Delta}SUV{sub max

  9. Advanced [18F]FDG and [11C]flumazenil PET analysis for individual outcome prediction after temporal lobe epilepsy surgery for hippocampal sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Yankam Njiwa, J.; Gray, K.R.; Costes, N.; Mauguiere, F.; Ryvlin, P.; Hammers, A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose We have previously shown that an imaging marker, increased periventricular [11C]flumazenil ([11C]FMZ) binding, is associated with failure to become seizure free (SF) after surgery for temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) with hippocampal sclerosis (HS). Here, we investigated whether increased preoperative periventricular white matter (WM) signal can be detected on clinical [18F]FDG-PET images. We then explored the potential of periventricular FDG WM increases, as well as whole-brain [11C]FMZ and [18F]FDG images analysed with random forest classifiers, for predicting surgery outcome. Methods Sixteen patients with MRI-defined HS had preoperative [18F]FDG and [11C]FMZ-PET. Fifty controls had [18F]FDG-PET (30), [11C]FMZ-PET (41), or both (21). Periventricular WM signal was analysed using Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM8), and whole-brain image classification was performed using random forests implemented in R (http://www.r-project.org). Surgery outcome was predicted at the group and individual levels. Results At the group level, non-seizure free (NSF) versus SF patients had periventricular increases with both tracers. Against controls, NSF patients showed more prominent periventricular [11C]FMZ and [18F]FDG signal increases than SF patients. All differences were more marked for [11C]FMZ. For individuals, periventricular WM signal increases were seen at optimized thresholds in 5/8 NSF patients for both tracers. For SF patients, 1/8 showed periventricular signal increases for [11C]FMZ, and 4/8 for [18F]FDG. Hence, [18F]FDG had relatively poor sensitivity and specificity. Random forest classification accurately identified 7/8 SF and 7/8 NSF patients using [11C]FMZ images, but only 4/8 SF and 6/8 NSF patients with [18F]FDG. Conclusion This study extends the association between periventricular WM increases and NSF outcome to clinical [18F]FDG-PET, but only at the group level. Whole-brain random forest classification increases [11C]FMZ-PET's performance for predicting

  10. Use of prediction equations to determine the accuracy of whole-body fat and fat-free mass and appendicular skeletal muscle mass measurements from a single abdominal image using computed tomography in advanced cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Kilgour, Robert D; Cardiff, Katrina; Rosenthall, Leonard; Lucar, Enriqueta; Trutschnigg, Barbara; Vigano, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Measurements of body composition using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and single abdominal images from computed tomography (CT) in advanced cancer patients (ACP) have important diagnostic and prognostic value. The question arises as to whether CT scans can serve as surrogates for DXA in terms of whole-body fat-free mass (FFM), whole-body fat mass (FM), and appendicular skeletal muscle (ASM) mass. Predictive equations to estimate body composition for ACP from CT images have been proposed (Mourtzakis et al. 2008; Appl. Physiol. Nutr. Metabol. 33(5): 997-1006); however, these equations have yet to be validated in an independent cohort of ACP. Thus, this study evaluated the accuracy of these equations in estimating FFM, FM, and ASM mass using CT images at the level of the third lumbar vertebrae and compared these values with DXA measurements. FFM, FM, and ASM mass were estimated from the prediction equations proposed by Mourtzakis and colleagues (2008) using single abdominal CT images from 43 ACP and were compared with whole-body DXA scans using Spearman correlations and Bland-Altman analyses. Despite a moderate to high correlation between the actual (DXA) and predicted (CT) values for FM (rho = 0.93; p ≤ 0.001), FFM (rho = 0.78; p ≤ 0.001), and ASM mass (rho = 0.70; p ≤ 0.001), Bland-Altman analyses revealed large range-of-agreement differences between the 2 methods (29.39 kg for FFM, 15.47 kg for FM, and 3.99 kg for ASM mass). Based on the magnitude of these differences, we concluded that prediction equations using single abdominal CT images have poor accuracy, cannot be considered as surrogates for DXA, and may have limited clinical utility. PMID:26695688

  11. HER-2, p53, p21 and hormonal receptors proteins expression as predictive factors of response and prognosis in locally advanced breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant docetaxel plus epirubicin combination

    PubMed Central

    Tiezzi, Daniel G; Andrade, Jurandyr M; Ribeiro-Silva, Alfredo; Zola, Fábio E; Marana, Heitor RC; Tiezzi, Marcelo G

    2007-01-01

    Background Neoadjuvant chemotherapy has been considered the standard care in locally advanced breast cancer. However, about 20% of the patients do not benefit from this clinical treatment and, predictive factors of response were not defined yet. This study was designed to evaluate the importance of biological markers to predict response and prognosis in stage II and III breast cancer patients treated with taxane and anthracycline combination as neoadjuvant setting. Methods Sixty patients received preoperative docetaxel (75 mg/m2) in combination with epirubicin (50 mg/m2) in i.v. infusion in D1 every 3 weeks after incisional biopsy. They received adjuvant chemotherapy with CMF or FEC, attaining axillary status following definitive breast surgery. Clinical and pathologic response rates were measured after preoperative therapy. We evaluated the response rate to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and the prognostic significance of clinicopathological and immunohistochemical parameters (ER, PR, p51, p21 and HER-2 protein expression). The median patient age was 50.5 years with a median follow up time 48 months after the time of diagnosis. Results Preoperative treatment achieved clinical response in 76.6% of patients and complete pathologic response in 5%. The clinical, pathological and immunohistochemical parameters were not able to predict response to therapy and, only HER2 protein overexpression was associated with a decrease in disease free and overall survival (P = 0.0007 and P = 0.003) as shown by multivariate analysis. Conclusion Immunohistochemical phenotypes were not able to predict response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Clinical response is inversely correlated with a risk of death in patients submitted to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and HER2 overexpression is the major prognostic factor in stage II and III breast cancer patients treated with a neoadjuvant docetaxel and epirubicin combination. PMID:17324279

  12. Total Soluble and Endogenous Secretory Receptor for Advanced Glycation End Products as Predictive Biomarkers of Coronary Heart Disease Risk in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Colhoun, Helen M.; Betteridge, D. John; Durrington, Paul; Hitman, Graham; Neil, Andrew; Livingstone, Shona; Charlton-Menys, Valentine; Bao, Weihang; DeMicco, David A.; Preston, Gregory M.; Deshmukh, Harshal; Tan, Kathryn; Fuller, John H.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Circulating levels of soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) likely comprise both a secreted isoform (esRAGE) and wild-type RAGE cleaved from the cell membrane. Both sRAGE and esRAGE have been proposed as biomarkers of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but prospective data are limited. We examined the relationship of sRAGE and esRAGE to incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in type 2 diabetic patients followed for 3.9 years in a trial of atorvastatin: the Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study (CARDS). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We used a nested case-control design sampling all incident cases of CVD with available plasma and randomly selecting three control subjects, who were free of CVD throughout follow-up, per case. Analysis was by Cox regression with adjustment for treatment allocation and relevant covariates. RESULTS sRAGE and esRAGE were strongly correlated (ρ = 0.88) and were both higher in those with lower BMI (P < 0.001), higher adiponectin (P < 0.001), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (P = 0.009), and white ethnicity (P < 0.001). Both sRAGE and esRAGE were associated with incident CHD events, independently of treatment allocation and the above factors; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.74 (95% CI 1.25–2.41; P = 0.002) for a doubling of the sRAGE level; HR = 1.45 (1.11–1.89; P = 0.006) for a doubling of the esRAGE level. There was no significant association with stroke; HR for sRAGE = 0.66 (0.38–1.14). Atorvastatin, 10 mg daily, did not alter sRAGE. CONCLUSIONS Higher levels of sRAGE and esRAGE are associated with incident CHD but not stroke in type 2 diabetes. PMID:21771973

  13. An Application of Advanced Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Methods to Assess Potential Impacts of the 2015 - 2016 ENSO Event over the Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, W. P.; Lamb, K. W.; Piechota, T. C.; Lakshmi, V.; Santos, N. I.; Tootle, G. A.; Kalra, A.; Fayne, J.

    2015-12-01

    Water resource managers throughout the Western United States have struggled with persistent and severe drought since the early 2000s. In the Colorado River Basin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) provides forecasts of water supply conditions to resource managers throughout the basin using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) methods that are largely driven by historical observations of temperature and precipitation. Currently, the CBRFC does not have a way to incorporate information from climatic teleconnections such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO describes warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that typically correlate with cool and wet winter precipitation events in California and the Lower Colorado River Basin during an El Niño event. Past research indicates the potential to identify analog ENSO events to evaluate the impact to reservoir storage in the Colorado River Basin. Current forecasts indicate the potential for one of the strongest El Niño events on record this winter. In this study, information regarding the upcoming ENSO event is used to inform water supply forecasts over the Upper Colorado River Basin. These forecasts are then compared to traditionally derived water supply forecast in an attempt to evaluate the possible impact of the El Niño event to water supply over the Colorado River Basin.

  14. Toward full-chip prediction of yield-limiting contact patterning failure: correlation of simulated image parameters to advanced contact metrology metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sturtevant, John L.; Chou, Dyiann

    2006-03-01

    Electrical failure due to incomplete contacts or vias has arisen as one of the primary modes of yield loss for 130 nm and below designs in manufacturing. Such failures are generally understood to arise from both random and systematic sources. The addition of redundant vias, where possible, has long been an accepted DFM practice for mitigating the impact of random defects. Incomplete vias are often characterized by having a diameter near the target dimension but a depth of less than 100% of target. As such, it is a difficult problem to diagnose and debug in-line, since bright and dark field optical inspection systems cannot typically distinguish between a closed, partially open and fully open contact. Advanced metrology systems have emerged in recent years to meet this challenge, but no perfect manufacturing solution has yet been identified for full field verification of all contacts. Voltage Contrast (VC) SEM metrology biases the wafer to directly measure electrical conductivity after fill / polish, and can therefore easily discern a lack of electrical connection to the underlying conductor caused by incomplete photo, etch, or fill processing. While an entire wafer can in principal be VC scanned, throughput limitations dictate very sparse sampling in manufacturing. SEM profile grading (PG) leverages the rich content of the secondary electron waveform to decipher information about the bottom of the contact. Several authors have demonstrated an excellent response of the Profile Grade to intentional defocus vectors. However, the SEM can only target discreet or single digit groupings of contacts, and therefore requires intelligent guidance to identify those contacts which are most prone to failure, enabling protection of the fab WIP. An a-priori knowledge of which specific contacts in a layout are most likely to fail would prove very useful for proactive inspection in manufacturing. Model based pre-manufacturing verification allows for such knowledge to be communicated

  15. Optimism and survival: does an optimistic outlook predict better survival at advanced ages? A twelve-year follow-up of Danish nonagenarians

    PubMed Central

    Jeune, Bernard; Andersen-Ranberg, Karen; Martinussen, Torben; Vaupel, James W.; Christensen, Kaare

    2013-01-01

    Background and aims Studies examining predictors of survival among the oldest-old have primarily focused on objective measures, such as physical function and health status. Only a few studies have examined the effect of personality traits on survival, such as optimism. The aim of this study was to examine whether an optimistic outlook predicts survival among the oldest-old. Methods The Danish 1905 Cohort Survey is a nationwide, longitudinal survey comprising all individuals born in Denmark in 1905. At baseline in 1998, a total of 2,262 persons aged 92 or 93 agreed to participate in the intake survey. The baseline in-person interview consisted of a comprehensive questionnaire including physical functioning and health, and a question about whether the respondent had an optimistic, neutral or pessimistic outlook on his or her own future. Results During the follow-up period of 12 years (1998–2010) there were 2,239 deaths (99 %) in the 1905 Cohort Survey. Univariable analyses revealed that optimistic women and men were at lower risk of death compared to their neutral counterparts [HR 0.82, 95 % CI (0.73–0.93) and 0.81, 95 % CI (0.66–0.99), respectively]. When confounding factors such as baseline physical and cognitive functioning and disease were taken into account the association between optimism and survival weakened in both sexes, but the general pattern persisted. Optimistic women were still at lower risk of death compared to neutral women [HR 0.85, 95 % CI (0.74–0.97)]. The risk of death was also decreased for optimistic men compared to their neutral counterparts, but the effect was non-significant [HR 0.91, 95 % CI (0.73–1.13)]. Conclusion An optimistic outlook appears to be a significant predictor of survival among the oldest-old women. It may also be a significant predictor for men but the sample size is small. PMID:24014276

  16. Successful Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierrehumbert, R.

    2012-12-01

    reasons I shall discuss. During the dark ages of global change, between Arrhenius and Plass (punctuated by Callendar), work on planetary climate had not in fact ground to a halt, but developed vigorously in the astronomical community. This culminated in major discoveries about the atmospheres of Mars and Venus, notably Sagan's prediction that Venus has an extremely high surface temperature owing to an atmosphere extremely rich in greenhouse gases. The fertile interplay between astrophysics and terrestrial climate science continues in the current dawning era of exoplanet discovery. Early modeling work, notably by Manabe and co-workers, identified a number of spatial patterns of global change that were ultimately realized in data. These include: amplification of warming over land and in the Arctic, and the conjunction of stratospheric cooling with tropospheric warming. Additional examples I will discuss include the problem of tropical temperatures at the Last Glacial Maximum, water vapor feedback, Hansen's prediction of response to the Pinatubo eruption, and the prediction that ocean heat uptake would delay warming. While not all aspects of climate change were anticipated in advance (notably the interruption of warming around 1950-1970), examples of truly failed predictions are rare, and are overwhelmingly found among theories such as those of Angstrom or Lindzen which purport to show little sensitivity of climate to CO2.

  17. Future advances.

    PubMed

    Celesia, Gastone G; Hickok, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    Future advances in the auditory systems are difficult to predict, and only educated guesses are possible. It is expected that innovative technologies in the field of neuroscience will be applied to the auditory system. Optogenetics, Brainbow, and CLARITY will improve our knowledge of the working of neural auditory networks and the relationship between sound and language, providing a dynamic picture of the brain in action. CLARITY makes brain tissue transparent and offers a three-dimensional view of neural networks, which, combined with genetically labeling neurons with multiple, distinct colors (Optogenetics), will provide detailed information of the complex brain system. Molecular functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) will allow the study of neurotransmitters detectable by MRI and their function in the auditory pathways. The Human Connectome project will study the patterns of distributed brain activity that underlie virtually all aspects of cognition and behavior and determine if abnormalities in the distributed patterns of activity may result in hearing and behavior disorders. Similarly, the programs of Big Brain and ENIGMA will improve our understanding of auditory disorders. New stem-cell therapy and gene therapies therapy may bring about a partial restoration of hearing for impaired patients by inducing regeneration of cochlear hair cells. PMID:25726297

  18. Analysis of potential predictive markers of cetuximab benefit in BMS099, a phase III study of cetuximab and first-line taxane/carboplatin in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Khambata-Ford, Shirin; Harbison, Christopher T; Hart, Lowell L; Awad, Melissa; Xu, Li-An; Horak, Christine E; Dakhil, Shaker; Hermann, Robert C; Lynch, Thomas J; Weber, Martin R

    2010-02-20

    PURPOSE The anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibody cetuximab is efficacious in multiple tumor types. Patient selection with markers predictive of benefit may enhance its therapeutic index. This retrospective, correlative analysis of the phase III trial BMS099 of cetuximab in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was conducted to identify molecular markers for the selection of patients most likely to benefit from cetuximab. METHODS In BMS099, 676 chemotherapy-naïve patients with stage IIIB (pleural effusion) or stage IV NSCLC of any histology or EGFR expression status were randomly assigned to taxane/carboplatin (T/C) with or without cetuximab. Biomarkers analyzed included K-Ras and EGFR mutations by direct sequencing, EGFR protein expression by immunohistochemistry (IHC), and EGFR gene copy number by fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). Relationships between biomarker status and progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and overall response rate (ORR) were assessed by log-rank tests per treatment arm for treatment-specific effects and across the total evaluable population. Results Tumor samples were available from 225 randomly assigned patients. K-Ras mutations were found in 17% of evaluable patients (35 of 202 patients), EGFR mutations were found in 10% (17 of 166 patients), EGFR positivity by IHC was found in 89% (131 of 148 patients), and FISH positivity was found in 52% (54 of 104 patients). No significant associations were found between biomarker status and PFS, OS, and ORR in the treatment-specific analyses. CONCLUSION In contrast with colorectal cancer, and within the limitations of the data set, efficacy parameters did not appear to correlate with K-Ras mutation status or with any of the EGFR-related biomarkers evaluated. Additional exploratory analyses are essential to identify predictive markers and to optimize patient selection for cetuximab therapy in NSCLC. PMID:20100958

  19. Are Short Telomeres Predictive of Advanced Cancer?

    PubMed Central

    Shay, Jerry W.

    2013-01-01

    Summary The combination of variable telomere length in cancer cells combined with shorter telomere length in cancer-associated stromal cells, strongly correlate with progression to prostate cancer metastasis and cancer death. The implications are that telomere length measurements not only have the potential as a prognostic indicator of prostate cancer outcomes but also as a risk stratification enrichment biomarker for individualized therapeutic interventions. PMID:24124228

  20. Prognosis Can Be Predicted More Accurately Using Pre- and Postchemoradiotherapy Carcinoembryonic Antigen Levels Compared to Only Prechemoradiotherapy Carcinoembryonic Antigen Level in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients Who Received Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Sung, SooYoon; Son, Seok Hyun; Kay, Chul Seung; Lee, Yoon Suk

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of a change in the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level during neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. A total of 110 patients with clinical T3/T4 or node-positive disease underwent nCRT and curative total mesorectal resection from February 2006 to December 2013. Serum CEA level was measured before nCRT, after nCRT, and then again after surgery. A cut-off value for CEA level to predict prognosis was determined using the maximally selected log-rank test. According to the test, patients were classified into 3 groups, based on their CEA levels (Group A: pre-CRT CEA ≤3.2; Group B: pre-CRT CEA level >3.2 and post-CRT CEA ≤2.8; and Group C: pre-CRT CEA >3.2 and post-CRT CEA >2.8). The median follow-up time was 31.1 months. The 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) rates of Group A and Group B were similar, while Group C showed a significantly lower 3-year DFS rate (82.5% vs. 89.5% vs. 55.1%, respectively, P = 0.001). Other clinicopathological factors that showed statistical significance on univariate analysis were pre-CRT CEA, post-CRT CEA, tumor distance from the anal verge, surgery type, downstage, pathologic N stage, margin status and perineural invasion. The CEA group (P = 0.001) and tumor distance from the anal verge (P = 0.044) were significant prognostic factors for DFS on multivariate analysis. Post-CRT CEA level may be a useful prognostic factor in patients whose prognosis cannot be predicted exactly by pre-CRT CEA levels alone in the neoadjuvant treatment era. Combined pre-CRT CEA and post-CRT CEA levels enable us to predict prognosis more accurately and determine treatment and follow-up policies. Further large-scale studies are necessary to validate the prognostic value of CEA levels. PMID:26962798

  1. Sensors and Measurements for Predictive Engineering

    SciTech Connect

    Bond, Leonard J.; Gilbert, Ronald W.; Skorpik, James R.; Griffin, Jeffrey W.

    1999-03-26

    Outline: (1) Introduction (2) Requirements (3) Ultrasonic Measurements (4) Technologies to Implement Predictive Engineering (5) RF Tags and Advanced Smart Multi-Sensors (6) Advanced Munitions Monitoring Concepts (7) Prognostics and TEDANN (8) Conclusions.

  2. EGFR biomarkers predict benefit from vandetanib in combination with docetaxel in a randomized phase III study of second-line treatment of patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer

    PubMed Central

    Heymach, J. V.; Lockwood, S. J.; Herbst, R. S.; Johnson, B. E.; Ryan, A. J.

    2014-01-01

    Background ZODIAC was a randomized phase III study of second-line treatment in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) that evaluated the addition of vandetanib to docetaxel. The study showed a statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival and objective response rate, but not in overall survival for unselected patients. This study evaluated epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene mutation, copy number gain, and protein expression, and KRAS gene mutation, in pretreatment tumor samples as potential biomarkers predicting benefit from vandetanib as second-line treatment of NSCLC. Patients and methods After progression following first-line chemotherapy, 1391 patients with locally advanced or metastatic (stage IIIB/IV) NSCLC were randomized 1 : 1 to receive vandetanib (100 mg/day) plus docetaxel (75 mg/m2 every 21 days) or placebo plus docetaxel in the ZODIAC study. Archival tumor samples (n = 570) were collected from consenting patients (n = 958) for predefined, prospective biomarker analyses. Results Of evaluable samples, 14% were EGFR mutation positive, 35% were EGFR FISH positive, 88% were EGFR protein expression positive, and 13% were KRAS mutation positive. Compared with the overall study population, in which progression-free survival (PFS) [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.79] but not OS (HR = 0.91) were significantly improved with vandetanib, there was greater relative clinical benefit for patients with EGFR mutation-positive tumors [PFS HR 0.51, confidence interval (CI) 0.25–1.06 and OS HR 0.46, CI 0.14–1.57] and EGFR FISH-positive tumors (PFS HR 0.61, CI 0.39–0.94 and OS HR 0.48, CI 0.28–0.84). Similarly, patients with EGFR mutation or FISH-positive tumor samples who received vandetanib had an increased chance of objective tumor response (odds ratios 3.34, CI 0.8–13.89, and 3.90, CI 1.02–14.82, respectively). There did not appear to be benefit for vandetanib in patients with KRAS mutation-positive tumors. Conclusions

  3. Advance directives

    PubMed Central

    O’Sullivan, Rory; Mailo, Kevin; Angeles, Ricardo; Agarwal, Gina

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Objective To establish the prevalence of patients with advance directives in a family practice, and to describe patients’ perspectives on a family doctor’s role in initiating discussions about advance directives. Design A self-administered patient questionnaire. Setting A busy urban family medicine teaching clinic in Hamilton, Ont. Participants A convenience sample of adult patients attending the clinic over the course of a typical business week. Main outcome measures The prevalence of advance directives in the patient population was determined, and the patients’ expectations regarding the role of their family doctors were elucidated. Results The survey population consisted of 800 participants (a response rate of 72.5%) well distributed across age groups; 19.7% had written advance directives and 43.8% had previously discussed the topic of advance directives, but only 4.3% of these discussions had occurred with family doctors. In 5.7% of cases, a family physician had raised the issue; 72.3% of respondents believed patients should initiate the discussion. Patients who considered advance directives extremely important were significantly more likely to want their family doctors to start the conversation (odds ratio 3.98; P < .05). Conclusion Advance directives were not routinely addressed in the family practice. Most patients preferred to initiate the discussion of advance directives. However, patients who considered the subject extremely important wanted their family doctors to initiate the discussion. PMID:25873704

  4. Combining plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA and nodal maximal standard uptake values of 18F-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography improved prognostic stratification to predict distant metastasis for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Qiu-Yan; Guo, Shan-Shan; Liu, Li-Ting; Fan, Wei; Zhang, Xu; Guo, Ling; Zhao, Chong; Cao, Ka-Jia; Qian, Chao-Nan; Guo, Xiang; Xie, Dan; Zeng, Mu-Sheng; Mai, Hai-Qiang

    2015-01-01

    Background This study aimed to evaluate the value of combining the nodal maximal standard uptake values (SUVmax) of 18 F-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography with Epstein-Barr virus DNA(EBV DNA) levels to predict distant metastasis for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients Patients and Methods Eight hundred seventy-four patients with stage III-IVa-b NPC were evaluated for the effects of combining SUVmax and EBV DNA levels on distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Results The optimal cutoff value was 6,220 copies/mL for EBV DNA and 7.5 for SUVmax-N. Patients with lower EBV DNA levels or SUVmax-N had a significantly better 3-year DMFS, DFS, and OS. Patients were divided into four groups based on EBV DNA and SUVmax-N, as follows: low EBV DNA and low SUVmax-N (LL), low EBV DNA and high SUVmax-N (LH), high EBV DNA and low SUVmax-N (HL), and high EBV DNA and high SUVmax-N (HH). There were significant differences between the four mentioned groups in 3-year DMFS: 95.7%, 92.2%, 92.3%, and 80.1%, respectively (Ptrend < 0.001). When looking at the disease stage, the 3-year DMFS in group LL, LH, HL, HH were 94.2%, 92.9%, 95.0%, and 81.1%, respectively, in stage III patients (Ptrend < 0.001) and 92.7%, 87.2%, 86.3%, and 77.0% in stage IVa–b patients (Ptrend = 0.026). Conclusion Pretreatment EBV DNA and SUVmax of neck lymph nodes were independent prognostic factors for distant metastasis in NPC patients. Combining EBV DNA and SUVmax-N led to an improved risk stratification for distant metastasis in advanced-stage disease. PMID:26512922

  5. Advances in dental materials.

    PubMed

    Vaderhobli, Ram M

    2011-07-01

    The use of materials to rehabilitate tooth structures is constantly changing. Over the past decade, newer material processing techniques and technologies have significantly improved the dependability and predictability of dental material for clinicians. The greatest obstacle, however, is in choosing the right combination for continued success. Finding predictable approaches for successful restorative procedures has been the goal of clinical and material scientists. This article provides a broad perspective on the advances made in various classes of dental restorative materials in terms of their functionality with respect to pit and fissure sealants, glass ionomers, and dental composites. PMID:21726695

  6. Mandibular Advancement Splints.

    PubMed

    Bamagoos, Ahmad A; Sutherland, Kate; Cistulli, Peter A

    2016-09-01

    Although mandibular advancement splints (MAS) are not as efficacious as continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) in reducing obstructive respiratory events, patient adherence and preference are greater than CPAP. Additionally, the effectiveness of both treatments on general health outcomes, cognitive function, and quality of life appears to be equivalent. The main barrier for the implementation of MAS treatment in clinical practice is the interindividual variability in response to MAS treatment. Several prediction tools have been proposed to enhance patient selection for MAS treatment. Phenotyping obstructive sleep apnea patients may reveal patient characteristics that enable the prediction of response to MAS treatment. PMID:27542880

  7. Advanced Microsensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    This video looks at a spinoff application of the technology from advanced microsensors -- those that monitor and determine conditions of spacecraft like the Space Shuttle. The application featured is concerned with the monitoring of the health of premature babies.

  8. Predicting communities from functional traits.

    PubMed

    Cadotte, Marc W; Arnillas, Carlos A; Livingstone, Stuart W; Yasui, Simone-Louise E

    2015-09-01

    Species traits influence where species live and how they interact. While there have been many advances in describing the functional composition and diversity of communities, only recently do researchers have the ability to predict community composition and diversity. This predictive ability can offer fundamental insights into ecosystem resilience and restoration. PMID:26190136

  9. Climate prediction and predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Climate prediction is generally accepted to be one of the grand challenges of the Geophysical Sciences. What is less widely acknowledged is that fundamental issues have yet to be resolved concerning the nature of the challenge, even after decades of research in this area. How do we verify or falsify a probabilistic forecast of a singular event such as anthropogenic warming over the 21st century? How do we determine the information content of a climate forecast? What does it mean for a modelling system to be "good enough" to forecast a particular variable? How will we know when models and forecasting systems are "good enough" to provide detailed forecasts of weather at specific locations or, for example, the risks associated with global geo-engineering schemes. This talk will provide an overview of these questions in the light of recent developments in multi-decade climate forecasting, drawing on concepts from information theory, machine learning and statistics. I will draw extensively but not exclusively from the experience of the climateprediction.net project, running multiple versions of climate models on personal computers.

  10. Full Field and Anomaly Initialisation using a low order climate model: a comparison, and proposals for advanced formulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weber, Robin; Carrassi, Alberto; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Volpi, Danila

    2014-05-01

    Full Field (FFI) and Anomaly Initialisation (AI) are two schemes used to initialise seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) prediction. FFI initialises the model on the best estimate of the actual climate state and minimises the initial error. However, due to inevitable model deficiencies, the trajectories drift away from the observations towards the model's own attractor, inducing a bias in the forecast. AI has been devised to tackle the impact of drift through the addition of this bias onto the observations, in the hope of gaining an initial state closer to the model attractor. Its goal is to forecast climate anomalies. The large variety of experimental setups, global coupled models, and observational networks adopted world-wide have led to varying results with regards to the relative performance of AI and FFI. Our research is firstly motivated in a comparison of these two initialisation approaches under varying circumstances of observational errors, observational distributions, and model errors. We also propose and compare two advanced schemes for s2d prediction. Least Square Initialisation (LSI) intends to propagate observational information of partially initialized systems to the whole model domain, based on standard practices in data assimilation and using the covariance of the model anomalies. Exploring the Parameters Uncertainty (EPU) is an online drift correction technique applied during the forecast run after initialisation. It is designed to estimate, and subtract, the bias in the forecast related to parametric error. Experiments are carried out using an idealized coupled dynamics in order to facilitate better control and robust statistical inference. Results show that an improvement of FFI will necessitate refinements in the observations, whereas improvements in AI are subject to model advances. A successful approximation of the model attractor using AI is guaranteed only when the differences between model and nature probability distribution functions (PDFs) are

  11. Technological Advancements

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Mike

    2010-01-01

    The influx of technology has brought significant improvements to school facilities. Many of those advancements can be found in classrooms, but when students head down the hall to use the washrooms, they are likely to find a host of technological innovations that have improved conditions in that part of the building. This article describes modern…

  12. Research Advances

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Angela G.

    2004-01-01

    Research advances, a new feature in Journal of Chemical Engineering that brings information about innovations in current areas of research to high school and college science faculty with an intent to provide educators with timely descriptions of latest progress in research that can be integrated into existing courses to update course content and…

  13. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  14. Prediction of bull fertility.

    PubMed

    Utt, Matthew D

    2016-06-01

    Prediction of male fertility is an often sought-after endeavor for many species of domestic animals. This review will primarily focus on providing some examples of dependent and independent variables to stimulate thought about the approach and methodology of identifying the most appropriate of those variables to predict bull (bovine) fertility. Although the list of variables will continue to grow with advancements in science, the principles behind making predictions will likely not change significantly. The basic principle of prediction requires identifying a dependent variable that is an estimate of fertility and an independent variable or variables that may be useful in predicting the fertility estimate. Fertility estimates vary in which parts of the process leading to conception that they infer about and the amount of variation that influences the estimate and the uncertainty thereof. The list of potential independent variables can be divided into competence of sperm based on their performance in bioassays or direct measurement of sperm attributes. A good prediction will use a sample population of bulls that is representative of the population to which an inference will be made. Both dependent and independent variables should have a dynamic range in their values. Careful selection of independent variables includes reasonable measurement repeatability and minimal correlation among variables. Proper estimation and having an appreciation of the degree of uncertainty of dependent and independent variables are crucial for using predictions to make decisions regarding bull fertility. PMID:26791329

  15. Advanced far infrared detectors

    SciTech Connect

    Haller, E.E.

    1993-05-01

    Recent advances in photoconductive and bolometric semiconductor detectors for wavelength 1 mm > {lambda} > 50 {mu}m are reviewed. Progress in detector performance in this photon energy range has been stimulated by new and stringent requirements for ground based, high altitude and space-borne telescopes for astronomical and astrophysical observations. The paper consists of chapters dealing with the various types of detectors: Be and Ga doped Ge photoconductors, stressed Ge:Ga devices and neutron transmutation doped Ge thermistors. Advances in the understanding of basic detector physics and the introduction of modern semiconductor device technology have led to predictable and reliable fabrication techniques. Integration of detectors into functional arrays has become feasible and is vigorously pursued by groups worldwide.

  16. Advanced Combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Holcomb, Gordon R.

    2013-03-11

    The activity reported in this presentation is to provide the mechanical and physical property information needed to allow rational design, development and/or choice of alloys, manufacturing approaches, and environmental exposure and component life models to enable oxy-fuel combustion boilers to operate at Ultra-Supercritical (up to 650{degrees}C & between 22-30 MPa) and/or Advanced Ultra-Supercritical conditions (760{degrees}C & 35 MPa).

  17. Advanced computing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Advanced concepts in hardware, software and algorithms are being pursued for application in next generation space computers and for ground based analysis of space data. The research program focuses on massively parallel computation and neural networks, as well as optical processing and optical networking which are discussed under photonics. Also included are theoretical programs in neural and nonlinear science, and device development for magnetic and ferroelectric memories.

  18. Advanced Nanoemulsions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fryd, Michael M.; Mason, Thomas G.

    2012-05-01

    Recent advances in the growing field of nanoemulsions are opening up new applications in many areas such as pharmaceuticals, foods, and cosmetics. Moreover, highly controlled nanoemulsions can also serve as excellent model systems for investigating basic scientific questions about soft matter. Here, we highlight some of the most recent developments in nanoemulsions, focusing on methods of formation, surface modification, material properties, and characterization. These developments provide insight into the substantial advantages that nanoemulsions can offer over their microscale emulsion counterparts.

  19. Improved methodology for integral analysis of advanced reactors employing passive safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muftuoglu, A. Kursad

    After four decades of experience with pressurized water reactors, a new generation of nuclear plants are emerging. These advanced designs employ passive safety which relies on natural forces, such as gravity and natural circulation. The new concept of passive safety also necessitates improvement in computational tools available for best-estimate analyses. The system codes originally designed for high pressure conditions in the presence of strong momentum sources such as pumps are challenged in many ways. Increased interaction of the primary system with the containment necessitates a tool for integral analysis. This study addresses some of these concerns. An improved tool for integral analysis coupling primary system with containment calculation is also presented. The code package is based on RELAP5 and CONTAIN programs, best-estimate thermal-hydraulics code for primary system analysis and containment code for containment analysis, respectively. The suitability is demonstrated with a postulated small break loss of coolant accident analysis of Westinghouse AP600 plant. The thesis explains the details of the analysis including the coupling model.

  20. Advanced fuel chemistry for advanced engines.

    SciTech Connect

    Taatjes, Craig A.; Jusinski, Leonard E.; Zador, Judit; Fernandes, Ravi X.; Miller, James A.

    2009-09-01

    Autoignition chemistry is central to predictive modeling of many advanced engine designs that combine high efficiency and low inherent pollutant emissions. This chemistry, and especially its pressure dependence, is poorly known for fuels derived from heavy petroleum and for biofuels, both of which are becoming increasingly prominent in the nation's fuel stream. We have investigated the pressure dependence of key ignition reactions for a series of molecules representative of non-traditional and alternative fuels. These investigations combined experimental characterization of hydroxyl radical production in well-controlled photolytically initiated oxidation and a hybrid modeling strategy that linked detailed quantum chemistry and computational kinetics of critical reactions with rate-equation models of the global chemical system. Comprehensive mechanisms for autoignition generally ignore the pressure dependence of branching fractions in the important alkyl + O{sub 2} reaction systems; however we have demonstrated that pressure-dependent 'formally direct' pathways persist at in-cylinder pressures.

  1. Predictive models in urology.

    PubMed

    Cestari, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Predictive modeling is emerging as an important knowledge-based technology in healthcare. The interest in the use of predictive modeling reflects advances on different fronts such as the availability of health information from increasingly complex databases and electronic health records, a better understanding of causal or statistical predictors of health, disease processes and multifactorial models of ill-health and developments in nonlinear computer models using artificial intelligence or neural networks. These new computer-based forms of modeling are increasingly able to establish technical credibility in clinical contexts. The current state of knowledge is still quite young in understanding the likely future direction of how this so-called 'machine intelligence' will evolve and therefore how current relatively sophisticated predictive models will evolve in response to improvements in technology, which is advancing along a wide front. Predictive models in urology are gaining progressive popularity not only for academic and scientific purposes but also into the clinical practice with the introduction of several nomograms dealing with the main fields of onco-urology. PMID:23423686

  2. Emerging Approaches in Predictive Toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Luoping; McHale, Cliona M.; Greene, Nigel; Snyder, Ronald D.; Rich, Ivan N.; Aardema, Marilyn J.; Roy, Shambhu; Pfuhler, Stefan; Venkatactahalam, Sundaresan

    2016-01-01

    Predictive toxicology plays an important role in the assessment of toxicity of chemicals and the drug development process. While there are several well-established in vitro and in vivo assays that are suitable for predictive toxicology, recent advances in high-throughput analytical technologies and model systems are expected to have a major impact on the field of predictive toxicology. This commentary provides an overview of the state of the current science and a brief discussion on future perspectives for the field of predictive toxicology for human toxicity. Computational models for predictive toxicology, needs for further refinement and obstacles to expand computational models to include additional classes of chemical compounds are highlighted. Functional and comparative genomics approaches in predictive toxicology are discussed with an emphasis on successful utilization of recently developed model systems for high-throughput analysis. The advantages of three-dimensional model systems and stem cells and their use in predictive toxicology testing are also described. PMID:25044351

  3. Predicting neonatal pharmacokinetics from prior data using population pharmacokinetic modeling.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jian; Edginton, Andrea N; Avant, Debbie; Burckart, Gilbert J

    2015-10-01

    Selection of the first dose for neonates in clinical trials is very challenging. The objective of this analysis was to assess if a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model developed with data from infants to adults is predictive of neonatal clearance and to evaluate what age range of prior PK data is needed for informative modeling to predict neonate exposure. Two sources of pharmacokinetic data from 8 drugs were used to develop population models: (1) data from all patients > 2 years of age, and (2) data from all nonneonatal patients aged > 28 days. The prediction error based on the models using data from subjects > 2 years of age showed bias toward overprediction, with median average fold error (AFE) for CL predicted/CLobserved greater than 1.5. The bias for predicting neonatal PK was improved when using all prior PK data including infants as opposed to an assessment without infant PK data, with the median AFE 0.91. As an increased number of pediatric trials are conducted in neonates under the Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act, dose selection should be based on the best estimates of neonatal pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics prior to conducting efficacy and safety studies in neonates. PMID:25907280

  4. Advanced Chemistry Basins Model

    SciTech Connect

    William Goddard; Mario Blanco; Lawrence Cathles; Paul Manhardt; Peter Meulbroek; Yongchun Tang

    2002-11-10

    The DOE-funded Advanced Chemistry Basin model project is intended to develop a public domain, user-friendly basin modeling software under PC or low end workstation environment that predicts hydrocarbon generation, expulsion, migration and chemistry. The main features of the software are that it will: (1) afford users the most flexible way to choose or enter kinetic parameters for different maturity indicators; (2) afford users the most flexible way to choose or enter compositional kinetic parameters to predict hydrocarbon composition (e.g., gas/oil ratio (GOR), wax content, API gravity, etc.) at different kerogen maturities; (3) calculate the chemistry, fluxes and physical properties of all hydrocarbon phases (gas, liquid and solid) along the primary and secondary migration pathways of the basin and predict the location and intensity of phase fractionation, mixing, gas washing, etc.; and (4) predict the location and intensity of de-asphaltene processes. The project has be operative for 36 months, and is on schedule for a successful completion at the end of FY 2003.

  5. Graphing Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connery, Keely Flynn

    2007-01-01

    Graphing predictions is especially important in classes where relationships between variables need to be explored and derived. In this article, the author describes how his students sketch the graphs of their predictions before they begin their investigations on two laboratory activities: Distance Versus Time Cart Race Lab and Resistance; and…

  6. Predictive Evaluation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scriven, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Noting that there has been extensive discussion of the relation of evaluation to: (1) research; (2) explanations (a.k.a. theory-driven, logic model, or realistic evaluation); and (3) recommendations, the author introduces: (4) prediction. He advocates that unlike the first three concepts, prediction is necessarily part of most kinds of evaluation,…

  7. Advanced LIGO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Aasi, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T.; Abernathy, M. R.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V.; Affeldt, C.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Alemic, A.; Allen, B.; Amariutei, D.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C.; Areeda, J. S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, S.; Aston, S. M.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Aylott, B. E.; Babak, S.; Baker, P. T.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barbet, M.; Barclay, S.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Bartlett, J.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Behnke, B.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C.; Benacquista, M.; Bergman, J.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Biscans, S.; Biwer, C.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bojtos, P.; Bond, C.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Bose, Sukanta; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Brau, J. E.; Bridges, D. O.; Brinkmann, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Buchman, S.; Buikema, A.; Buonanno, A.; Cadonati, L.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Caride, S.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cepeda, C.; Chakraborty, R.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chen, Y.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Collette, C.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Countryman, S.; Couvares, P.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cutler, C.; Dahl, K.; Dal Canton, T.; Damjanic, M.; Danilishin, S. L.; Danzmann, K.; Dartez, L.; Dave, I.; Daveloza, H.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; DeBra, D.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; D´ıaz, M.; Di Palma, I.; Dojcinoski, G.; Dominguez, E.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Dwyer, S.; Eberle, T.; Edo, T.; Edwards, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Essick, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Factourovich, M.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Feldbaum, D.; Ferreira, E. C.; Fisher, R. P.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fuentes-Tapia, S.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gair, J. R.; Gaonkar, S.; Gehrels, N.; Gergely, L. Á.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Gleason, J.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gordon, N.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S.; Goßler, S.; Gräf, C.; Graff, P. B.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guido, C. J.; Guo, X.; Gushwa, K.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Hanke, M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Hee, S.; Heintze, M.; Heinzel, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Hollitt, S. E.; Holt, K.; Hopkins, P.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Houston, E.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh, M.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Idrisy, A.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Islas, G.; Isler, J. C.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacobson, M.; Jang, H.; Jawahar, S.; Ji, Y.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Ju, L.; Haris, K.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, H.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kawazoe, F.; Keiser, G. M.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Key, J. S.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, C.; Kim, K.; Kim, N. G.; Kim, N.; Kim, Y.-M.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kline, J.; Koehlenbeck, S.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, P.; Kuo, L.; Landry, M.; Lantz, B.; Larson, S.; Lasky, P. D.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Le, J.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Leong, J. R.; Levin, Y.; Levine, B.; Lewis, J.; Li, T. G. F.; Libbrecht, K.; Libson, A.; Lin, A. C.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lockett, V.; Logue, J.; Lombardi, A. L.; Lormand, M.; Lough, J.; Lubinski, M. J.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macarthur, J.; MacDonald, T.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magee, R.; Mageswaran, M.; Maglione, C.; Mailand, K.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Maros, E.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martynov, D.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Massinger, T. J.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McLin, K.; McWilliams, S.; Meadors, G. D.; Meinders, M.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyers, P. M.; Miao, H.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Miller, A.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moe, B.; Mohanty, S. D.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moore, B.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nash, T.; Nayak, R. K.; Necula, V.; Nedkova, K.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A. H.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, R.; O'Reilly, B.; Ortega, W.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ott, C. D.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Padilla, C.; Pai, A.; Pai, S.; Palashov, O.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H.; Patrick, Z.; Pedraza, M.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Phelps, M.; Pierro, V.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poeld, J.; Post, A.; Poteomkin, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Premachandra, S.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Pürrer, M.; Qin, J.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E.; Quiroga, G.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajalakshmi, G.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramirez, K.; Raymond, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Reula, O.; Riles, K.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V.; Romano, J. D.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sannibale, V.; Santiago-Prieto, I.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Sawadsky, A.; Scheuer, J.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sergeev, A.; Serna, G.; Sevigny, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shao, Z.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sidery, T. L.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L.; Singh, R.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith-Lefebvre, N. D.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Souradeep, T.; Staley, A.; Stebbins, J.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Steplewski, S.; Stevenson, S.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sutton, P. J.; Szczepanczyk, M.; Szeifert, G.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Tellez, G.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, V.; Tomlinson, C.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Traylor, G.; Tse, M.; Tshilumba, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Vincent-Finley, R.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vorvick, C.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Wessels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Williams, L.; Williams, R.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Worden, J.; Xie, S.; Yablon, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yang, Q.; Zanolin, M.; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S.; Zweizig, J.

    2015-04-01

    The Advanced LIGO gravitational wave detectors are second-generation instruments designed and built for the two LIGO observatories in Hanford, WA and Livingston, LA, USA. The two instruments are identical in design, and are specialized versions of a Michelson interferometer with 4 km long arms. As in Initial LIGO, Fabry-Perot cavities are used in the arms to increase the interaction time with a gravitational wave, and power recycling is used to increase the effective laser power. Signal recycling has been added in Advanced LIGO to improve the frequency response. In the most sensitive frequency region around 100 Hz, the design strain sensitivity is a factor of 10 better than Initial LIGO. In addition, the low frequency end of the sensitivity band is moved from 40 Hz down to 10 Hz. All interferometer components have been replaced with improved technologies to achieve this sensitivity gain. Much better seismic isolation and test mass suspensions are responsible for the gains at lower frequencies. Higher laser power, larger test masses and improved mirror coatings lead to the improved sensitivity at mid and high frequencies. Data collecting runs with these new instruments are planned to begin in mid-2015.

  8. ARM Best Estimate Data (ARMBE) Products for Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Riihimaki, Laura; Gaustad, Krista; McFarlane, Sally

    2014-06-12

    This data set was created for the Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) model testbed project and is an extension of the hourly average ARMBE dataset to other extended facility sites and to include uncertainty estimates. Uncertainty estimates were needed in order to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques with the data.

  9. The ARM Southern Great Plains Central Facility Best Estimate Radiative Flux CD

    SciTech Connect

    Long, CN

    2002-04-01

    The BEFlux VAP directly compares data from the three Normal Incidence Perheliometers, shaded pyranometers, and shaded pyrgeometers at the SGP CF. Extensive analysis with several years of data has produced limits of typical ranges of agreement when these instruments are performing as expected. These limits are used to screen the data, and then the average is taken of the two that agree best, given that at least two instruments agree to within the established limits. This is done for the downwelling direct normal and diffuse shortwave, and the downwelling longwave. The total (global) downwelling shortwave is then the sum of the direct and diffuse components.

  10. Best estimate of luminal cross-sectional area of coronary arteries from angiograms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, P. L.; Selzer, R. H.

    1988-01-01

    We have reexamined the problem of estimating the luminal area of an elliptically-shaped coronary artery cross section from two or more radiographic diameter measurements. The expected error is found to be much smaller than the maximum potential error. In the cae of two orthogonal views, closed form expressions have been derived for calculating the area and the uncertainty. Assuming that the underlying ellipse has limited ellipticity (major/minor axis ratio less than five), it is shown that the average uncertainty in the area is less than 14 percent. When more than two views are available, we suggest using a least-squares fit method to extract all available information from the data.

  11. Subtitle-Based Word Frequencies as the Best Estimate of Reading Behavior: The Case of Greek

    PubMed Central

    Dimitropoulou, Maria; Duñabeitia, Jon Andoni; Avilés, Alberto; Corral, José; Carreiras, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    Previous evidence has shown that word frequencies calculated from corpora based on film and television subtitles can readily account for reading performance, since the language used in subtitles greatly approximates everyday language. The present study examines this issue in a society with increased exposure to subtitle reading. We compiled SUBTLEX-GR, a subtitled-based corpus consisting of more than 27 million Modern Greek words, and tested to what extent subtitle-based frequency estimates and those taken from a written corpus of Modern Greek account for the lexical decision performance of young Greek adults who are exposed to subtitle reading on a daily basis. Results showed that SUBTLEX-GR frequency estimates effectively accounted for participants’ reading performance in two different visual word recognition experiments. More importantly, different analyses showed that frequencies estimated from a subtitle corpus explained the obtained results significantly better than traditional frequencies derived from written corpora. PMID:21833273

  12. Clouds and more: ARM climate modeling best estimate data: A new data product for climate studies

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Xie, Shaocheng; McCoy, Renata B.; Klein, Stephen A.; Cederwall, Richard T.; Wiscombe, Warren J.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Gaustad, Krista L.; Golaz, Jean -Christophe; Hall, Stephanie D.; Jensen, Michael P.; et al

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program (www.arm.gov) was created in 1989 to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation atmosphere. Here, a central activity is the acquisition of detailed observations of clouds and radiation, as well as related atmospheric variables for climate model evaluation and improvement.

  13. ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Lamont, OK Statistical Summary (ARMBE-CLDRAD SGPC1)

    DOE Data Explorer

    McCoy, Renata; Xie, Shaocheng

    2010-01-26

    Calculate monthly mean diurnal cycle based on the hourly CMBE data with qcflag >=-1 (>30% valid data within the averaged hour). For 2-D clouds, only data over the period when both MMCR and MPL were working are used.

  14. Subtitle-based word frequencies as the best estimate of reading behavior: the case of greek.

    PubMed

    Dimitropoulou, Maria; Duñabeitia, Jon Andoni; Avilés, Alberto; Corral, José; Carreiras, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    Previous evidence has shown that word frequencies calculated from corpora based on film and television subtitles can readily account for reading performance, since the language used in subtitles greatly approximates everyday language. The present study examines this issue in a society with increased exposure to subtitle reading. We compiled SUBTLEX-GR, a subtitled-based corpus consisting of more than 27 million Modern Greek words, and tested to what extent subtitle-based frequency estimates and those taken from a written corpus of Modern Greek account for the lexical decision performance of young Greek adults who are exposed to subtitle reading on a daily basis. Results showed that SUBTLEX-GR frequency estimates effectively accounted for participants' reading performance in two different visual word recognition experiments. More importantly, different analyses showed that frequencies estimated from a subtitle corpus explained the obtained results significantly better than traditional frequencies derived from written corpora. PMID:21833273

  15. The Lifetime Prevalence of Anabolic-Androgenic Steroid Use and Dependence in Americans: Current Best Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Pope, Harrison G.; Kanayama, Gen; Athey, Alison; Ryan, Erin; Hudson, James I.; Baggish, Aaron

    2013-01-01

    Background and Objectives Although various surveys have tracked the prevalence of anabolic-androgenic steroid (AAS) use in American teenagers and young adults, no recent surveys have assessed the lifetime prevalence of AAS use in Americans overall. We therefore analyzed serial youth-survey data to derive estimates of the lifetime prevalence of AAS use in the current American general population. Methods We first determined the distribution of age of onset of AAS use, based on pooled data from nine studies. Using this distribution, we then developed equations to project the eventual lifetime prevalence of AAS use among young survey respondents, once they aged and completed the period of risk for initiating AAS. We similarly calculated the denominator of lifetimes of risk for AAS use in the total American population. We next applied these equations to four independent national youth datasets to derive current American general-population estimates for lifetime AAS use. Finally, using data from 10 pooled studies, we estimated the lifetime prevalence of AAS dependence among AAS users. Results Age-of-onset studies consistently showed that AAS use begins later than most drugs, with only 22% of users (95% confidence interval: 19%–25%) starting before age 20. Applying the age-of-onset findings to national youth datasets, we estimated that among Americans currently age 13 to 50 years, 2.9–4.0 million have used AAS. Within this group, roughly 1 million may have experienced AAS dependence. Conclusions and Scientific Significance Although subject to various limitations, our estimation techniques suggest a surprisinigly high prevalence of AAS use and dependence among Americans. PMID:24112239

  16. Enhancement/upgrade of Engine Structures Technology Best Estimator (EST/BEST) Software System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, Ashwin

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the work performed during the contract period and the capabilities included in the EST/BEST software system. The developed EST/BEST software system includes the integrated NESSUS, IPACS, COBSTRAN, and ALCCA computer codes required to perform the engine cycle mission and component structural analysis. Also, the interactive input generator for NESSUS, IPACS, and COBSTRAN computer codes have been developed and integrated with the EST/BEST software system. The input generator allows the user to create input from scratch as well as edit existing input files interactively. Since it has been integrated with the EST/BEST software system, it enables the user to modify EST/BEST generated files and perform the analysis to evaluate the benefits. Appendix A gives details of how to use the newly added features in the EST/BEST software system.

  17. Challenger STS-17 (41-G) post-flight best estimate trajectory products: Development and summary results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, G. M.; Heck, M. L.; Mcconnell, J. G.; Waters, L. A.; Troutman, P. A.; Findlay, J. T.

    1985-01-01

    Results from the STS-17 (41-G) post-flight products are presented. Operational Instrumentation recorder gaps, coupled with the limited tracking coverage available for this high inclination entry profile, necessitated selection of an anchor epoch for reconstruction corresponding to an unusually low altitude of h approx. 297 kft. The final inertial trajectory obtained, BT17N26/UN=169750N, is discussed in Section I, i.e., relative to the problems encountered with the OI and ACIP recorded data on this Challenger flight. Atmospheric selection, again in view of the ground track displacement from the remote meteorological sites, constituted a major problem area as discussed in Section II. The LAIRS file provided by Langley was adopted, with NOAA data utilized over the lowermost approx. 7 kft. As discussed in Section II, the Extended BET, ST17BET/UN=274885C, suggests a limited upper altitude (H approx. 230 kft) for which meaningful flight extraction can be expected. This is further demonstrated, though not considered a limitation, in Section III wherein summary results from the AEROBET (NJ0333 with NJ0346 as duplicate) are presented. GTFILEs were generated only for the selected IMU (IMU2) and the Rate Gyro Assembly/Accelerometer Assembly data due to the loss of ACIP data. Appendices attached present inputs for the generation of the post-flight products (Appendix A), final residual plots (Appendix B), a two second spaced listing of the relevant parameters from the Extended BET (Appendix C), and an archival section (Appendix D) devoting input (source) and output files and/or physical reels.

  18. Aeroacoustics of advanced propellers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groeneweg, John F.

    1990-01-01

    The aeroacoustics of advanced, high speed propellers (propfans) are reviewed from the perspective of NASA research conducted in support of the Advanced Turboprop Program. Aerodynamic and acoustic components of prediction methods for near and far field noise are summarized for both single and counterrotation propellers in uninstalled and configurations. Experimental results from tests at both takeoff/approach and cruise conditions are reviewed with emphasis on: (1) single and counterrotation model tests in the NASA Lewis 9 by 15 (low speed) and 8 by 6 (high speed) wind tunnels, and (2) full scale flight tests of a 9 ft (2.74 m) diameter single rotation wing mounted tractor and a 11.7 ft (3.57 m) diameter counterrotation aft mounted pusher propeller. Comparisons of model data projected to flight with full scale flight data show good agreement validating the scale model wind tunnel approach. Likewise, comparisons of measured and predicted noise level show excellent agreement for both single and counterrotation propellers. Progress in describing angle of attack and installation effects is also summarized. Finally, the aeroacoustic issues associated with ducted propellers (very high bypass fans) are discussed.

  19. Aeroacoustics of advanced propellers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groeneweg, John F.

    The aeroacoustics of advanced, high speed propellers (propfans) are reviewed from the perspective of NASA research conducted in support of the Advanced Turboprop Program. Aerodynamic and acoustic components of prediction methods for near and far field noise are summarized for both single and counterrotation propellers in uninstalled and configurations. Experimental results from tests at both takeoff/approach and cruise conditions are reviewed with emphasis on: (1) single and counterrotation model tests in the NASA Lewis 9 by 15 (low speed) and 8 by 6 (high speed) wind tunnels, and (2) full scale flight tests of a 9 ft (2.74 m) diameter single rotation wing mounted tractor and a 11.7 ft (3.57 m) diameter counterrotation aft mounted pusher propeller. Comparisons of model data projected to flight with full scale flight data show good agreement validating the scale model wind tunnel approach. Likewise, comparisons of measured and predicted noise level show excellent agreement for both single and counterrotation propellers. Progress in describing angle of attack and installation effects is also summarized. Finally, the aeroacoustic issues associated with ducted propellers (very high bypass fans) are discussed.

  20. Advanced Pacemaker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Synchrony, developed by St. Jude Medical's Cardiac Rhythm Management Division (formerly known as Pacesetter Systems, Inc.) is an advanced state-of-the-art implantable pacemaker that closely matches the natural rhythm of the heart. The companion element of the Synchrony Pacemaker System is the Programmer Analyzer APS-II which allows a doctor to reprogram and fine tune the pacemaker to each user's special requirements without surgery. The two-way communications capability that allows the physician to instruct and query the pacemaker is accomplished by bidirectional telemetry. APS-II features 28 pacing functions and thousands of programming combinations to accommodate diverse lifestyles. Microprocessor unit also records and stores pertinent patient data up to a year.

  1. Intra-and-Inter Species Biomass Prediction in a Plantation Forest: Testing the Utility of High Spatial Resolution Spaceborne Multispectral RapidEye Sensor and Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms

    PubMed Central

    Dube, Timothy; Mutanga, Onisimo; Adam, Elhadi; Ismail, Riyad

    2014-01-01

    The quantification of aboveground biomass using remote sensing is critical for better understanding the role of forests in carbon sequestration and for informed sustainable management. Although remote sensing techniques have been proven useful in assessing forest biomass in general, more is required to investigate their capabilities in predicting intra-and-inter species biomass which are mainly characterised by non-linear relationships. In this study, we tested two machine learning algorithms, Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) and Random Forest (RF) regression trees to predict intra-and-inter species biomass using high resolution RapidEye reflectance bands as well as the derived vegetation indices in a commercial plantation. The results showed that the SGB algorithm yielded the best performance for intra-and-inter species biomass prediction; using all the predictor variables as well as based on the most important selected variables. For example using the most important variables the algorithm produced an R2 of 0.80 and RMSE of 16.93 t·ha−1 for E. grandis; R2 of 0.79, RMSE of 17.27 t·ha−1 for P. taeda and R2 of 0.61, RMSE of 43.39 t·ha−1 for the combined species data sets. Comparatively, RF yielded plausible results only for E. dunii (R2 of 0.79; RMSE of 7.18 t·ha−1). We demonstrated that although the two statistical methods were able to predict biomass accurately, RF produced weaker results as compared to SGB when applied to combined species dataset. The result underscores the relevance of stochastic models in predicting biomass drawn from different species and genera using the new generation high resolution RapidEye sensor with strategically positioned bands. PMID:25140631

  2. Fan Noise Prediction: Status and Needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huff, Dennis L.

    1997-01-01

    The prediction of fan noise is an important part to the prediction of overall turbofan engine noise. Advances in computers and better understanding of the flow physics have allowed researchers to compute sound generation from first principles and rely less on empirical correlations. While progress has been made, there are still many aspects of the problem that need to be explored. This paper presents some recent advances in fan noise prediction and suggests areas that still need further development. Fan noise predictions that support the recommendations are taken from existing publications.

  3. Advanced capacitors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, R. D.; Buritz, R. S.; Taylor, A. R.; Bullwinkel, E. P.

    1982-11-01

    An experimental development program was conducted to develop and test advanced dielectric materials for capacitors for airborne power systems. High rep rate and low rate capacitors for use in pulse-forming networks, high voltage filter capacitors, and high frequency ac capacitors for series resonant inverters were considered. The initial goal was to develop an improved polysulfone film. Initially, low breakdown strength was thought to be related to inclusions of conductive particles. The effect of filtration of the casting solution was investigated. These experiments showed that more filtration was not the entire solution to low breakdown. The film samples were found to contain dissolved ionic impurities that move through the dielectric when voltage is applied and cause enhancement of the electric field. These contaminants enter the film via the resin and solvent, and can be partially removed. However, these treatments did not significantly improve the breakdown characteristics. A new material, Ultem, was proposed for use in high energy density capacitors. This new polyetherimide resin has properties similar to polysulfone and polyimide, with improvement in breakdown characteristics and temperature capability. The technique of casting films on a roughened drum was demonstrated, and found useful in preparing textured films. this is the first step toward a replacement for kraft paper.

  4. Advanced capacitors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ennis, J. B.; Buritz, R. S.

    1984-10-01

    This report describes an experimental program to develop and test advanced dielectric materials for capacitors for airborne power systems. Five classes of capacitors were considered: high rep rate and low rep rate pulse capacitors for use in pulse-forming networks, high voltage filter capacitors, high frequency AC capacitors for series resonant inverters, and AC filter capacitors. To meet these requirements, existing dielectric materials were modified, and new materials were developed. The initial goal was to develop an improved polysulfone film with fewer imperfections that could operate at significantly higher electrical stresses. It was shown that contaminants enter the film via the resin and solvent, and that they can be partially removed. As far as developed, however, these treatments did not significantly improved the breakdown characteristics. The technique of casting films on a roughened drum was demonstrated, and found useful in preparing textured films -- the first step toward a replacement for Kraft paper. A new material, Ultem, was proposed for use in high energy density capacitors. This new polyetherimide resin has properties similar to polysulfone and polyimide, with improvement in breakdown characteristics and temperature capability. This material was selected for further study in model capacitor designs.

  5. El Nino and climate prediction

    SciTech Connect

    1994-12-31

    This booklet describes how winds that flow from east to west across the equatorial Pacific Ocean are driven by the atmospheric-pressure differential between eastern and western Pacific, and goes on to discuss how this affects the ENSO cycle. Advances and successes in prediction of the ENSO are briefly describe in this NOAA publication.

  6. Can we predict the unpredictable?

    PubMed Central

    Golestani, Abbas; Gras, Robin

    2014-01-01

    Time series forecasting is of fundamental importance for a variety of domains including the prediction of earthquakes, financial market prediction, and the prediction of epileptic seizures. We present an original approach that brings a novel perspective to the field of long-term time series forecasting. Nonlinear properties of a time series are evaluated and used for long-term predictions. We used financial time series, medical time series and climate time series to evaluate our method. The results we obtained show that the long-term prediction of complex nonlinear time series is no longer unrealistic. The new method has the ability to predict the long-term evolutionary trend of stock market time series, and it attained an accuracy level with 100% sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of epileptic seizures up to 17 minutes in advance based on data from 21 epileptic patients. Our new method also predicted the trend of increasing global temperature in the last 30 years with a high level of accuracy. Thus, our method for making long-term time series predictions is vastly superior to existing methods. We therefore believe that our proposed method has the potential to be applied to many other domains to generate accurate and useful long-term predictions. PMID:25355427

  7. Earthquake prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, Z.; Fu, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, C.; Zhang, G.; Liu, D.

    1989-01-01

    Mainland China is situated at the eastern edge of the Eurasian seismic system and is the largest intra-continental region of shallow strong earthquakes in the world. Based on nine earthquakes with magnitudes ranging between 7.0 and 7.9, the book provides observational data and discusses successes and failures of earthquake prediction. Derived from individual earthquakes, observations of various phenomena and seismic activities occurring before and after earthquakes, led to the establishment of some general characteristics valid for earthquake prediction.

  8. Early onset of hypertension and serum electrolyte changes as potential predictive factors of activity in advanced HCC patients treated with sorafenib: results from a retrospective analysis of the HCC-AVR group

    PubMed Central

    Gardini, Andrea Casadei; Scarpi, Emanuela; Marisi, Giorgia; Foschi, Francesco Giuseppe; Donati, Gabriele; Giampalma, Emanuela; Faloppi, Luca; Scartozzi, Mario; Silvestris, Nicola; Bisulli, Marcello; Corbelli, Jody; Gardini, Andrea; Barba, Giuliano La; Veneroni, Luigi; Tamberi, Stefano; Cascinu, Stefano; Frassineti, Giovanni Luca

    2016-01-01

    Hypertension (HTN) is frequently associated with the use of angiogenesis inhibitors targeting the vascular endothelial growth factor pathway and appears to be a generalized effect of this class of agent. We investigated the phenomenon in 61 patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving sorafenib. Blood pressure and plasma electrolytes were measured on days 1 and 15 of the treatment. Patients with sorafenib-induced HTN had a better outcome than those without HTN (disease control rate: 63.4% vs. 17.2% (p=0.001); progression-free survival 6.0 months (95% CI 3.2-10.1) vs. 2.5 months (95% CI 1.9-2.6) (p<0.001) and overall survival 14.6 months (95% CI9.7-19.0) vs. 3.9 months (95% CI 3.1-8.7) (p=0.003). Sodium levels were generally higher on day 15 than at baseline (+2.38, p<0.0001) in the group of responders (+4.95, p <0.0001) compared to patients who progressed (PD) (+0.28, p=0.607). In contrast, potassium was lower on day 14 (−0.30, p=0.0008) in the responder group (−0.58, p=0.003) than in those with progressive disease (−0.06, p=0.500). The early onset of hypertension is associated with improved clinical outcome in HCC patients treated with sorafenib. Our data are suggestive of an activation of the renin-angiotensin system in patients with advanced disease who developed HTN during sorafenib treatment. PMID:26893366

  9. Early onset of hypertension and serum electrolyte changes as potential predictive factors of activity in advanced HCC patients treated with sorafenib: results from a retrospective analysis of the HCC-AVR group.

    PubMed

    Casadei Gardini, Andrea; Scarpi, Emanuela; Marisi, Giorgia; Foschi, Francesco Giuseppe; Donati, Gabriele; Giampalma, Emanuela; Faloppi, Luca; Scartozzi, Mario; Silvestris, Nicola; Bisulli, Marcello; Corbelli, Jody; Gardini, Andrea; La Barba, Giuliano; Veneroni, Luigi; Tamberi, Stefano; Cascinu, Stefano; Frassineti, Giovanni Luca

    2016-03-22

    Hypertension (HTN) is frequently associated with the use of angiogenesis inhibitors targeting the vascular endothelial growth factor pathway and appears to be a generalized effect of this class of agent. We investigated the phenomenon in 61 patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving sorafenib. Blood pressure and plasma electrolytes were measured on days 1 and 15 of the treatment. Patients with sorafenib-induced HTN had a better outcome than those without HTN (disease control rate: 63.4% vs. 17.2% (p=0.001); progression-free survival 6.0 months (95% CI 3.2-10.1) vs. 2.5 months (95% CI 1.9-2.6) (p<0.001) and overall survival 14.6 months (95% CI9.7-19.0) vs. 3.9 months (95% CI 3.1-8.7) (p=0.003). Sodium levels were generally higher on day 15 than at baseline (+2.38, p<0.0001) in the group of responders (+4.95, p <0.0001) compared to patients who progressed (PD) (+0.28, p=0.607). In contrast, potassium was lower on day 14 (-0.30, p=0.0008) in the responder group (-0.58, p=0.003) than in those with progressive disease (-0.06, p=0.500). The early onset of hypertension is associated with improved clinical outcome in HCC patients treated with sorafenib. Our data are suggestive of an activation of the renin-angiotensin system in patients with advanced disease who developed HTN during sorafenib treatment. PMID:26893366

  10. Early Decreases in α-Fetoprotein and Des-γ-carboxy Prothrombin Predict the Antitumor Effects of Hepatic Transarterial Infusion Chemotherapy with Cisplatin (CDDP) Powder in Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Hatanaka, Takeshi; Kakizaki, Satoru; Shimada, Yasushi; Takizawa, Daichi; Katakai, Kenji; Yamazaki, Yuichi; Sato, Ken; Kusano, Motoyasu; Yamada, Masanobu

    2016-01-01

    Objective We retrospectively investigated the relationship between the tumor response and serial changes in α-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) during hepatic arterial infusion of a cisplatin powder formulation (CDDP powder) in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods Seventy-six advanced HCC patients were analyzed. All HCC patients received high-concentration cisplatin (1.43 mg/mL) via the haptic artery at a dose of 65 mg/m(2). AFP and DCP were measured at baseline and four to eight weeks after treatment, and the antitumor responses were evaluated according to the response evaluation criteria in solid tumours (RECIST) criteria after one or two courses of treatment. The patients were classified into two groups, a decreased group and a non-decreased group, according to the change in the serum levels of AFP and DCP at four to eight weeks compared to baseline. Results The response to treatment of the decreased group (n=16) and non-decreased group (n=60) was complete response/partial response/stable disease/progressive disease (CR/PR/SD/PD) in 4/4/5/3 and 1/11/8/40 patients, respectively. The response rate and disease control rate of the decreased group were significantly higher than those of the non-decreased group (p=0.016 and p<0.001, respectively). The median survival time (MST) of the decreased/non-decreased groups were 25.9/10.6 months, respectively. The cumulative survival rates for the decreased group were significantly higher than those of the non-decreased group (p=0.042). In the multivariate analysis, vascular invasion and the decreased group were significant factors that affected the therapeutic efficacy. Conclusion A decrease in the levels of AFP and DCP after the first treatment with CDDP powder is a good predictor for the antitumor effect and the prognosis. PMID:27522991

  11. Sensitivity analysis of artificial neural network (ANN) brightness temperature predictions over snow-covered regions in North America using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Radiometer (AMSR-E) from 2002 to 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Y.; Forman, B. A.

    2013-12-01

    Snow is a significant contributor to the earth's hydrologic cycle, energy cycle, and climate system. Further, up to 80% of freshwater supply in the western United States originates as snow (and ice). Characterization of the mass of snow, or snow water equivalent (SWE), across regional and continental scales has commonly been conducted using satellite-based passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperatures (Tb) within a SWE retrieval algorithm. However, SWE retrievals often suffer from deficiencies related to deep snow, wet snow, snow evolution, snow aging, overlying vegetation, surface and internal ice lenses, depth hoar, and sub-grid scale lakes. As an alternative to SWE retrievals, this study explores the potential for using PMW Tb and machine learning within a data assimilation framework. An artificial neural network (ANN) is presented for eventual use as an observation operator to map the land surface model states into Tb space. This study explores the sensitivity of an ANN as a computationally efficient measurement model operator for the prediction of PMW Tb across North America. The analysis employs normalized sensitivity coefficients and a one-at-a-time approach such that each of the 11 different inputs could be examined separately in order to quantify the impact of perturbations to each input on the multi-frequency, multi-polarization Tb output from the ANN. Spatiotemporal variability in the Tb predictions across regional spatial scales and seasonal timescales is investigated from 2002 to 2011. Preliminary results suggest ANN-based Tb predictions are sensitive to certain snow states, such as SWE, snow density, and snow temperature in non-vegetated or sparsely vegetated regions. Further, sensitivity of ANN prediction of ΔTb=Tb, 18v*-Tb, 36v* to changes in SWE suggest the likelihood for success when the ANN is eventually implemented into a data assimilation framework. Despite the promise in these initial results, challenges remain at enhancing ANN sensitivity

  12. ENSO predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larson, Sarah Michelle

    The overarching goal of this work is to explore seasonal El Nino -- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. More specifically, this work investigates how intrinsic variability affects ENSO predictability using a state-of-the-art climate model. Topics related to the effects of systematic model errors and external forcing are not included in this study. Intrinsic variability encompasses a hierarchy of temporal and spatial scales, from high frequency small-scale noise-driven processes including coupled instabilities to low frequency large-scale deterministic climate modes. The former exemplifies what can be considered intrinsic "noise" in the climate system that hinders predictability by promoting rapid error growth whereas the latter often provides the slow thermal ocean inertia that supplies the coupled ENSO system with predictability. These two ends of the spectrum essentially provide the lower and upper bounds of ENSO predictability that can be attributed to internal variability. The effects of noise-driven coupled instabilities on sea surface temperature (SST) predictability in the ENSO region is quantified by utilizing a novel coupled model methodology paired with an ensemble approach. The experimental design allows for rapid growth of intrinsic perturbations that are not prescribed. Several cases exhibit sufficiently rapid growth to produce ENSO-like final states that do not require a previous ENSO event, large-scale wind trigger, or subsurface heat content precursor. Results challenge conventional ENSO theory that considers the subsurface precursor as a necessary condition for ENSO. Noise-driven SST error growth exhibits strong seasonality and dependence on the initialization month. A dynamical analysis reveals that much of the error growth behavior is linked to the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback in the model, indicating that the noise-induced perturbations grow via an ENSO-like mechanism. The daily error fields reveal that persistent

  13. Dropout Prediction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curtis, Jonathan; And Others

    Secondary school students who drop out of school are put at great social and economic disadvantage. If potential dropouts can be identified early, prevention may be possible. To construct a prediction model which, through readily available school information, will aid in the identification of students likely to drop out, schools in the Austin,…

  14. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. Part 2: Theoretical development of a dynamic model and application to rain fade durations and tolerable control delays for fade countermeasures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1987-01-01

    A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.

  15. Advanced Virgo phase cameras

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Schaaf, L.; Agatsuma, K.; van Beuzekom, M.; Gebyehu, M.; van den Brand, J.

    2016-05-01

    A century after the prediction of gravitational waves, detectors have reached the sensitivity needed to proof their existence. One of them, the Virgo interferometer in Pisa, is presently being upgraded to Advanced Virgo (AdV) and will come into operation in 2016. The power stored in the interferometer arms raises from 20 to 700 kW. This increase is expected to introduce higher order modes in the beam, which could reduce the circulating power in the interferometer, limiting the sensitivity of the instrument. To suppress these higher-order modes, the core optics of Advanced Virgo is equipped with a thermal compensation system. Phase cameras, monitoring the real-time status of the beam constitute a critical component of this compensation system. These cameras measure the phases and amplitudes of the laser-light fields at the frequencies selected to control the interferometer. The measurement combines heterodyne detection with a scan of the wave front over a photodetector with pin-hole aperture. Three cameras observe the phase front of these laser sidebands. Two of them monitor the in-and output of the interferometer arms and the third one is used in the control of the aberrations introduced by the power recycling cavity. In this paper the working principle of the phase cameras is explained and some characteristic parameters are described.

  16. Advanced Motors

    SciTech Connect

    Knoth, Edward A; Chelluri, Bhanumathi; Schumaker, Edward J

    2012-12-14

    vProject Summary Transportation energy usage is predicted to increase substantially by 2020. Hybrid vehicles and fuel cell powered vehicles are destined to become more prominent as fuel prices rise with the demand. Hybrid and fuel cell vehicle platforms are both dependent on high performance electric motors. Electric motors for transportation duty will require sizeable low-speed torque to accelerate the vehicle. As motor speed increases, the torque requirement decreases which results in a nearly constant power motor output. Interior permanent magnet synchronous motors (IPMSM) are well suited for this duty. , , These rotor geometries are configured in straight lines and semi circular arc shapes. These designs are of limited configurations because of the lack of availability of permanent magnets of any other shapes at present. We propose to fabricate rotors via a novel processing approach where we start with magnet powders and compact them into a net shape rotor in a single step. Using this approach, widely different rotor designs can be implemented for efficiency. The current limitation on magnet shape and thickness will be eliminated. This is accomplished by co-filling magnet and soft iron powders at specified locations in intricate shapes using specially designed dies and automatic powder filling station. The process fundamentals for accomplishing occurred under a previous Applied Technology Program titled, Motors and Generators for the 21st Century. New efficient motor designs that are not currently possible (or cost prohibitive) can be accomplished by this approach. Such an approach to motor fabrication opens up a new dimension in motor design. Feasibility Results We were able to optimize a IPMSM rotor to take advantage of the powder co-filling and DMC compaction processing methods. The minimum low speed torque requirement of 5 N-m can be met through an optimized design with magnet material having a Br capability of 0.2 T. This level of magnetic performance can

  17. SCIENCE BRIEF: ADVANCED CONCEPTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research on advanced concepts will evaluate and demonstrate the application of innovative infrastructure designs, management procedures and operational approaches. Advanced concepts go beyond simple asset management. The infusion of these advanced concepts into established wastew...

  18. 10% Tumor Diameter Shrinkage on the First Follow-Up Computed Tomography Predicts Clinical Outcome in Patients With Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma Treated With Angiogenesis Inhibitors: A Follow-Up Validation Study

    PubMed Central

    Franchetti, Yoko; Nishino, Mizuki; Fay, André P.; Ramaiya, Nikhil; Van den Abbeele, Annick D.; Choueiri, Toni K.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-targeted agents are standard therapies for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), associated with variable tumor shrinkage. Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) is of limited utility in this setting, and other imaging changes are sought to reliably predict outcome early. We aim to validate 10% tumor shrinkage as the best early indicator of outcome. Methods. In this institutional review board-approved, Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act-compliant study, 66 mRCC patients with 165 lesions on clinical trials of VEGF-targeted agents underwent thoracic and abdominal computed tomography at baseline and at first follow-up after therapy. Measurements were performed according to RECIST and tumor shrinkage of ≥10% decrease in sum of the longest diameter (−10%SLD). Correlation with time-to-treatment failure (TTF) and overall survival (OS) were compared and stratified by response to the radiologic criteria. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analysis yielded the optimal threshold change in SLD, defining patients with prolonged survival. Results. More than −10%SLD significantly differentiated responders from nonresponders (median TTF 8.4 vs. 4.1 months, p = .001), whereas partial response by RECIST did not (median TTF 6.9 vs. 5.5 months in responders vs. nonresponders, p = .34). −10%SLD was also significantly predictive of OS (median OS 35.1 vs. 15.0 months in responders vs. nonresponders, p = .003). ROC curve analysis yielded −9.3% in SLD as the optimal threshold for response/no response. Conclusion. Ten percent tumor shrinkage is validated as a reliable early predictor of outcome in mRCC patients receiving VEGF-targeted therapies and may provide a practical measure to guide therapeutic decisions. PMID:24755461

  19. Life prediction systems for critical rotating components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cunningham, Susan E.

    1993-01-01

    With the advent of advanced materials in rotating gas turbine engine components, the methodologies for life prediction of these parts must also increase in sophistication and capability. Pratt & Whitney's view of generic requirements for composite component life prediction systems are presented, efforts underway to develop these systems are discussed, and industry participation in key areas requiring development is solicited.

  20. Prospective Validation Obtained in a Similar Group of Patients and with Similar High Throughput Biological Tests Failed to Confirm Signatures for Prediction of Response to Chemotherapy and Survival in Advanced NSCLC: A Prospective Study from the European Lung Cancer Working Party

    PubMed Central

    Berghmans, Thierry; Ameye, Lieveke; Lafitte, Jean-Jacques; Colinet, Benoît; Cortot, Alexis; CsToth, Ingrid; Holbrechts, Stéphane; Lecomte, Jacques; Mascaux, Céline; Meert, Anne-Pascale; Paesmans, Marianne; Richez, Michel; Scherpereel, Arnaud; Tulippe, Christian; Willems, Luc; Dernies, Tiffany; Leclercq, Nathalie; Sculier, Jean-Paul

    2014-01-01

    Aim: Cisplatin doublets are standard 1st line treatment for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), without accurate predictor for response and survival, but important toxicity. Our aims were to identify predictive (for response) and prognostic (for survival) biological signatures in patients with NSCLC using messenger RNAs (mRNA) and miRNA expression. Methods: Patients with pathologically proven untreated NSCLC, receiving 1st line cisplatin–vinorelbine and with an assessable lesion were eligible. A bronchial biopsy was lysed into Tripure Isolation Reagent on ice, snap frozen, and stored at −80°C. mRNA expression was analyzed using microarrays Agilent Technologies. miRNA expression was assessed using TaqMan Low Density Arrays (756 human miR panel, Applied Biosystems). Validation was performed by RT-PCR on the selected genes. Survival was measured from the registration date and response assessed by WHO criteria. Results: Biopsies for transcriptomic analyses were obtained from 60 consecutive patients. No statistically significant differences were observed according to the main clinical characteristics, response rate (43 vs. 41%) or survival (median 25 vs. 29 months) between derivation and validation sets. In the derivation set (n = 38 patients), two mRNA and one miRNA predictive signatures for response were obtained. One mRNA and one miRNA prognostic signatures were derived from the first set, allowing an adequate distinction of patients with good and poor overall and progression-free survivals. None of these signatures could be validated in the validation set (n = 22 patients). Conclusion: In this prospective study with advanced NSCLC treated with cisplatin–vinorelbine, we were able to derive with high throughput techniques predictive and prognostic signatures based on transcriptomic analyses. However, these results could not be reproduced in an independent validation set. The role of miRNA and mRNA as predictive or prognostic factors remains a

  1. The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, Peter; Thorpe, Alan; Brunet, Gilbert

    2015-09-01

    Advances in numerical weather prediction represent a quiet revolution because they have resulted from a steady accumulation of scientific knowledge and technological advances over many years that, with only a few exceptions, have not been associated with the aura of fundamental physics breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the impact of numerical weather prediction is among the greatest of any area of physical science. As a computational problem, global weather prediction is comparable to the simulation of the human brain and of the evolution of the early Universe, and it is performed every day at major operational centres across the world.

  2. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Advanced Seismic Soil Structure Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Bolisetti, Chandrakanth; Coleman, Justin Leigh

    2015-06-01

    Risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. Specifically, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRAs) are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in some instances the current SPRA approach has large uncertainties, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). SPRA’s are performed by convolving the seismic hazard (this is the estimate of all likely damaging earthquakes at the site of interest) with the seismic fragility (the conditional probability of failure of a structure, system, or component given the occurrence of earthquake ground motion). In this calculation, there are three main pieces to seismic risk quantification, 1) seismic hazard and nuclear power plants (NPPs) response to the hazard, 2) fragility or capacity of structures, systems and components (SSC), and 3) systems analysis. Two areas where NLSSI effects may be important in SPRA calculations are, 1) when calculating in-structure response at the area of interest, and 2) calculation of seismic fragilities (current fragility calculations assume a lognormal distribution for probability of failure of components). Some important effects when using NLSSI in the SPRA calculation process include, 1) gapping and sliding, 2) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of foundations atop soil, 3) inclined seismic waves coupled with gapping and sliding of deeply embedded structures, 4) soil dilatancy, 5) soil liquefaction, 6) surface waves, 7) buoyancy, 8) concrete cracking and 9) seismic isolation The focus of the research task presented here-in is on implementation of NLSSI into the SPRA calculation process when calculating in-structure response at the area

  3. Eclipse prediction in Mesopotamia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steele, J. M.

    2000-02-01

    Among the many celestial phenomena observed in ancient Mesopotamia, eclipses, particularly eclipses of the Moon, were considered to be among the astrologically most significant events. In Babylon, by at least the middle of the seventh century BC, and probably as early as the middle of the eighth century BC, astronomical observations were being systematically conducted and recorded in a group of texts which we have come to call Astronomical Diaries. These Diaries contain many observations and predictions of eclipses. The predictions generally include the expected time of the eclipse, apparently calculated quite precisely. By the last three centuries BC, the Babylonian astronomers had developed highly advanced mathematical theories of the Moon and planets. This paper outlines the various methods which appear to have been formulated by the Mesopotamian astronomers to predict eclipses of the Sun and the Moon. It also considers the question of which of these methods were actually used in compiling the Astronomical Diaries, and speculates why these particular methods were used.

  4. Biomarker Analyses from a Placebo-Controlled Phase II Study Evaluating Erlotinib ± Onartuzumab in Advanced Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer: MET Expression Levels Are Predictive of Patient Benefit

    PubMed Central

    Koeppen, Hartmut; Yu, Wei; Zha, Jiping; Pandita, Ajay; Penuel, Elicia; Rangell, Linda; Raja, Rajiv; Mohan, Sankar; Patel, Rajesh; Desai, Rupal; Fu, Ling; Do, An; Parab, Vaishali; Xia, Xiaoling; Januario, Tom; Louie, Sharianne G.; Filvaroff, Ellen; Shames, David S.; Wistuba, Ignacio; Lipkind, Marina; Huang, Jenny; Lazarov, Mirella; Ramakrishnan, Vanitha; Amler, Lukas; Phan, See-Chun; Patel, Premal; Peterson, Amy; Yauch, Robert L.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose In a recent phase II study of onartuzumab (MetMAb), patients whose non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) tissue scored as positive for MET protein by immunohistochemistry (IHC) experienced a significant benefit with onartuzumab plus erlotinib (O+E) versus erlotinib. We describe development and validation of a standardized MET IHC assay and, retrospectively, evaluate multiple biomarkers as predictors of patient benefit. Experimental Design Biomarkers related to MET and/or EGF receptor (EGFR) signaling were measured by IHC, FISH, quantitative reverse transcription PCR, mutation detection techniques, and ELISA. Results A positive correlation between IHC, Western blotting, and MET mRNA expression was observed in NSCLC cell lines/tissues. An IHC scoring system of MET expression taking proportional and intensity-based thresholds into consideration was applied in an analysis of the phase II study and resulted in the best differentiation of outcomes. Further analyses revealed a nonsignificant overall survival (OS) improvement with O+E in patients with high MET copy number (mean ≥5 copies/cell by FISH); however, benefit was maintained in “MET IHC-positive”/MET FISH-negative patients (HR, 0.37; P = 0.01). MET, EGFR, amphiregulin, epiregulin, or HGF mRNA expression did not predict a significant benefit with onartuzumab; a nonsignificant OS improvement was observed in patients with high tumor MET mRNA levels (HR, 0.59; P = 0.23). Patients with low baseline plasma hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) exhibited an HR for OS of 0.519 (P = 0.09) in favor of onartuzumab treatment. Conclusions MET IHC remains the most robust predictor of OS and progression-free survival benefit from O+E relative to all examined exploratory markers. PMID:24687921

  5. Tobacco cessation education for advanced practice nurses.

    PubMed

    Whitehead, Diane; Zucker, Steven B; Stone, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    The predicted shortfall of primary care physicians and the millions of newly insured beginning in 2014 call for an increase in the number of advanced practice nurses (APRNs). Advanced practice nurses can significantly improve their clients' quality of life and increase their life expectancy through tobacco cessation education. The purpose of this study was to educate APRN students on smoking information and techniques to assist clients with quitting smoking in the primary care setting. PMID:24867074

  6. ECLSS predictive monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doyle, Richard J.; Chien, Steve A.

    1991-01-01

    On Space Station Freedom (SSF), design iterations have made clear the need to keep the sensor complement small. Along with the unprecendented duration of the mission, it is imperative that decisions regarding placement of sensors be carefully examined and justified during the design phase. In the ECLSS Predictive Monitoring task, we are developing AI-based software to enable design engineers to evaluate alternate sensor configurations. Based on techniques from model-based reasoning and information theory, the software tool makes explicit the quantitative tradeoffs among competing sensor placements, and helps designers explore and justify placement decisions. This work is being applied to the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) testbed at MSFC to assist design personnel in placing sensors for test purposes to evaluate baseline configurations and ultimately to select advanced life support system technologies for evolutionary SSF.

  7. Estimation of the uncertainty in TRAC/PF1-MOD1 predictions of production reactor plenum pressures

    SciTech Connect

    Griggs, D.P. )

    1992-01-01

    The TRAC-PF1/MOD1 code (TRAC) is used to perform best-estimate analyses of certain postulated design-basis accidents (DBAs) in Savannah River Site (SRS) production reactors. One of the DBAs analyzed is an instantaneous double-ended guillotine break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). The TRAC analysis provides time-dependent plenum and tank bottom pressures for use as boundary conditions in a detailed analysis of a single fuel assembly. The quantification of uncertainty is an important element in determining safe operating power levels for SRS reactors. This motivates the estimation of the uncertainty in using spatial interpolations of the relatively coarse cell-average plenum pressure predictions obtained with TRAC to predict detailed reactor plenum pressure distributions. This result supports the adequacy of the {plus minus}5% plenum pressure uncertainty estimated for LOCA analyses.

  8. Advanced Pressure Boundary Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Santella, Michael L; Shingledecker, John P

    2007-01-01

    Increasing the operating temperatures of fossil power plants is fundamental to improving thermal efficiencies and reducing undesirable emissions such as CO{sub 2}. One group of alloys with the potential to satisfy the conditions required of higher operating temperatures is the advanced ferritic steels such as ASTM Grade 91, 9Cr-2W, and 12Cr-2W. These are Cr-Mo steels containing 9-12 wt% Cr that have martensitic microstructures. Research aimed at increasing the operating temperature limits of the 9-12 wt% Cr steels and optimizing them for specific power plant applications has been actively pursued since the 1970's. As with all of the high strength martensitic steels, specifying upper temperature limits for tempering the alloys and heat treating weldments is a critical issue. To support this aspect of development, thermodynamic analysis was used to estimate how this critical temperature, the A{sub 1} in steel terminology, varies with alloy composition. The results from the thermodynamic analysis were presented to the Strength of Weldments subgroup of the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code and are being considered in establishing maximum postweld heat treatment temperatures. Experiments are also being planned to verify predictions. This is part of a CRADA project being done with Alstom Power, Inc.

  9. Practical lessons from protein structure prediction

    PubMed Central

    Ginalski, Krzysztof; Grishin, Nick V.; Godzik, Adam; Rychlewski, Leszek

    2005-01-01

    Despite recent efforts to develop automated protein structure determination protocols, structural genomics projects are slow in generating fold assignments for complete proteomes, and spatial structures remain unknown for many protein families. Alternative cheap and fast methods to assign folds using prediction algorithms continue to provide valuable structural information for many proteins. The development of high-quality prediction methods has been boosted in the last years by objective community-wide assessment experiments. This paper gives an overview of the currently available practical approaches to protein structure prediction capable of generating accurate fold assignment. Recent advances in assessment of the prediction quality are also discussed. PMID:15805122

  10. Advance Care Planning

    MedlinePlus

    ... Division of Geriatrics and Clinical Gerontology Division of Neuroscience FAQs Funding Opportunities Intramural Research Program Office of ... Is Advance Care Planning? Advance care planning involves learning about the types of decisions that might need ...

  11. Advanced flight control system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hartmann, G. L.; Wall, J. E., Jr.; Rang, E. R.; Lee, H. P.; Schulte, R. W.; Ng, W. K.

    1982-01-01

    A fly by wire flight control system architecture designed for high reliability includes spare sensor and computer elements to permit safe dispatch with failed elements, thereby reducing unscheduled maintenance. A methodology capable of demonstrating that the architecture does achieve the predicted performance characteristics consists of a hierarchy of activities ranging from analytical calculations of system reliability and formal methods of software verification to iron bird testing followed by flight evaluation. Interfacing this architecture to the Lockheed S-3A aircraft for flight test is discussed. This testbed vehicle can be expanded to support flight experiments in advanced aerodynamics, electromechanical actuators, secondary power systems, flight management, new displays, and air traffic control concepts.

  12. Advances in traction drive technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loewenthal, S. H.; Anderson, N. E.; Rohn, D. A.

    1983-01-01

    Traction drives are traced from early uses as main transmissions in automobiles at the turn of the century to modern, high-powered traction drives capable of transmitting hundreds of horsepower. Recent advances in technology are described which enable today's traction drive to be a serious candidate for off-highway vehicles and helicopter applications. Improvements in materials, traction fluids, design techniques, power loss and life prediction methods will be highlighted. Performance characteristics of the Nasvytis fixed-ratio drive are given. Promising future drive applications, such as helicopter main transmissions and servo-control positioning mechanisms are also addressed.

  13. Aeroacoustic Prediction Codes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gliebe, P; Mani, R.; Shin, H.; Mitchell, B.; Ashford, G.; Salamah, S.; Connell, S.; Huff, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    This report describes work performed on Contract NAS3-27720AoI 13 as part of the NASA Advanced Subsonic Transport (AST) Noise Reduction Technology effort. Computer codes were developed to provide quantitative prediction, design, and analysis capability for several aircraft engine noise sources. The objective was to provide improved, physics-based tools for exploration of noise-reduction concepts and understanding of experimental results. Methods and codes focused on fan broadband and 'buzz saw' noise and on low-emissions combustor noise and compliment work done by other contractors under the NASA AST program to develop methods and codes for fan harmonic tone noise and jet noise. The methods and codes developed and reported herein employ a wide range of approaches, from the strictly empirical to the completely computational, with some being semiempirical analytical, and/or analytical/computational. Emphasis was on capturing the essential physics while still considering method or code utility as a practical design and analysis tool for everyday engineering use. Codes and prediction models were developed for: (1) an improved empirical correlation model for fan rotor exit flow mean and turbulence properties, for use in predicting broadband noise generated by rotor exit flow turbulence interaction with downstream stator vanes: (2) fan broadband noise models for rotor and stator/turbulence interaction sources including 3D effects, noncompact-source effects. directivity modeling, and extensions to the rotor supersonic tip-speed regime; (3) fan multiple-pure-tone in-duct sound pressure prediction methodology based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis; and (4) low-emissions combustor prediction methodology and computer code based on CFD and actuator disk theory. In addition. the relative importance of dipole and quadrupole source mechanisms was studied using direct CFD source computation for a simple cascadeigust interaction problem, and an empirical combustor

  14. Advanced planetary studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Results of planetary advanced studies and planning support are summarized. The scope of analyses includes cost estimation research, planetary mission performance, penetrator advanced studies, Mercury mission transport requirements, definition of super solar electric propulsion/solar sail mission discriminators, and advanced planning activities.

  15. Advancing Paternal Age and Simplex Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Puleo, Connor Morrow; Schmeidler, James; Reichenberg, Abraham; Kolevzon, Alexander; Soorya, Latha V.; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Silverman, Jeremy M.

    2012-01-01

    De novo events appear more common in female and simplex autism spectrum disorder (ASD) cases and may underlie greater ASD risk in older fathers' offspring. This study examined whether advancing paternal age predicts an increase in simplex (n = 90) versus multiplex ASD cases (n = 587) in 677 participants (340 families). Whether or not controlling…

  16. Hybrid and Electric Advanced Vehicle Systems Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beach, R. F.; Hammond, R. A.; Mcgehee, R. K.

    1985-01-01

    Predefined components connected to represent wide variety of propulsion systems. Hybrid and Electric Advanced Vehicle System (HEAVY) computer program is flexible tool for evaluating performance and cost of electric and hybrid vehicle propulsion systems. Allows designer to quickly, conveniently, and economically predict performance of proposed drive train.

  17. Recent advances in computational aerodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agarwal, Ramesh K.; Desse, Jerry E.

    1991-04-01

    The current state of the art in computational aerodynamics is described. Recent advances in the discretization of surface geometry, grid generation, and flow simulation algorithms have led to flowfield predictions for increasingly complex and realistic configurations. As a result, computational aerodynamics is emerging as a crucial enabling technology for the development and design of flight vehicles. Examples illustrating the current capability for the prediction of aircraft, launch vehicle and helicopter flowfields are presented. Unfortunately, accurate modeling of turbulence remains a major difficulty in the analysis of viscosity-dominated flows. In the future inverse design methods, multidisciplinary design optimization methods, artificial intelligence technology and massively parallel computer technology will be incorporated into computational aerodynamics, opening up greater opportunities for improved product design at substantially reduced costs.

  18. Shock-loading response of advanced materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gray, G. T., III

    1993-05-01

    Advanced materials, such as composites (metal, ceramic, or polymer-matrix), intermetallics, foams (metallic or polymeric-based), laminated materials, and nanostructured materials are receiving increasing attention because their properties can be custom tailored specific applications. The high-rate/impact response of advanced materials is relevant to a broad range of service environments such as the crashworthiness of civilian/military vehicles, foreign-object-damage in aerospace, and light-weight armor. Increased utilization of these material classes under dynamic loading conditions requires an understanding of the relationship between high-rate/shock-wave response as a function of microstructure if we are to develop models to predict material behavior. In this paper, the issues relevant to defect generation, storage, and the underlying physical basis needed in predictive models for several advanced materials are reviewed.

  19. Advanced midwifery practice or advancing midwifery practice?

    PubMed

    Smith, Rachel; Leap, Nicky; Homer, Caroline

    2010-09-01

    Advanced midwifery practice is a controversial notion in midwifery, particularly at present in Australia. The proposed changes in legislation around access to the publicly funded Medical Benefits Scheme (MBS) and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) in 2009-2010 have meant that the issue of advanced midwifery practice has again taken prominence. Linking midwifery access to MBS and PBS to a safety and quality framework that includes an 'advanced midwifery credentialling framework' is particularly challenging. The Haxton and Fahy paper in the December 2009 edition of Women and Birth is timely as it enables a reflection upon these issues and encourages debate and discussion about exactly what is midwifery, what are we educating our students for and is working to the full scope of practice practising at advanced level? This paper seeks to address some of these questions and open up the topic for further debate. PMID:20018582

  20. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  1. Men with Advanced Prostate Cancer Might Consider Gene Test

    MedlinePlus

    ... html Men With Advanced Prostate Cancer Might Consider Gene Test Detection of genetic flaw could help predict ... suggests. Testing for inherited abnormalities in DNA repair genes could provide patients and family members important information ...

  2. Resampling Gaged Networks to Provide Uncertainty Estimates for Daily Streamflow Predictions in Ungaged Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farmer, W. H.; Over, T. M.; Vogel, R. M.; Archfield, S. A.; Kiang, J. E.

    2014-12-01

    In ungaged basins, predictions of daily streamflow are essential to responsible and effective management and design of water resources systems. Transfer-based methods are widely used for prediction in ungaged basins (PUB) within a gaged network. Such methods rely on the transfer of information from an index gage to an ungaged site. In what is known as the nearest-neighbor algorithm, the index gage is selected based on geospatial proximity. The predictions offered by any PUB method can be highly uncertain, and it is often difficult to characterize this uncertainty. In the development of predicted streamflow records, understanding the uncertainty of estimates would greatly improve water resources management in ungaged basins. It is proposed that by resampling the sites of the gaged network, with replacement, a set of equally-probable streamflow predictions can be produced for any ungaged site. For a particular day in the record, the percentiles of the distribution of the resampled, predicted streamflows can be used to estimate confidence intervals of the original daily streamflow predictions. This approach is explored in the Southeast United States with a nearest-neighbor application of non-linear spatial interpolation using flow duration curves (QPPQ), a common PUB method. Though some interval re-centering is required to ensure that the best-case prediction falls within the confidence intervals, it is shown that this technique provides a reasonable first-order approximation of prediction uncertainty. Still, the best estimated confidence intervals are shown to consistently under-estimate the nominal confidence. It is hypothesized that this interval contraction is a result of temporal and spatial correlation within the gaged network. Additionally, implications of prediction uncertainty are explored and alternative estimators are considered.

  3. A review of ENSO prediction studies

    SciTech Connect

    Latif, M.; Fluegel, M.; Xu, J.S.

    1994-01-01

    A hierarchy of ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) prediction schemes has been developed which includes statistical schemes and physical models. The statistical models are. in general, based on advanced statistical techniques and can be classified into models which use either low-frequency variations in the atmosphere (sea level pressure or surface wind) or upper ocean heat content as predictors. The physical models consist of coupled ocean-atmosphere models of varying degrees of complexity, ranging from simplified coupled models of the {open_quote}shallow water{close_quote}-type to coupled general circulation models. All models, statistical and physical, perform considerably better than the persistence forecast on predicting typical indices of ENSO on lead times of 6 to 12 months. The most successful prediction schemes, the fully physical coupled ocean-atmosphere models, show significant prediction abilities at lead times exceeding one year period. We therefore conclude that ENSO is predictable at least one year in advance. However, all of this applies to gross indices of ENSO such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Despite the demonstrated predictability, little is known about the predictability of specific features known to be associated with ENSO (e.g. Indian Monsoon rainfall, Southern African drought, or even off-equatorial sea surface temperature). Nor has the relative importance for prediction of different regional anomalies or different physical processes yet been established. A seasonal dependence in predictability is established, but the processes responsible for it are not fully understood. 71 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  4. Advanced information society (12)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komatsuzaki, Seisuke

    In this paper, the original Japanese idea of "advanced information society" was reviewed at the first step. Thus, advancement of information/communication technology, advancement of information/communication needs and tendency of industrialization of information" were examined. Next, by comparing studies on advanced information society in various countries, the Japanese characteristics of consensus building was reviewed. Finally, in pursuit of prospect and tasks for the society, advancement of innovation and convergence information/communication technology, information/communication needs, institutional environment for utilization of information/communication and countermeasures against information pollution. Matching of information/communication technology and needs, besides with countermeasures against information pollution were discussed.

  5. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.

  6. Advanced Computational Aeroacoustics Methods for Fan Noise Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Envia, Edmane (Technical Monitor); Tam, Christopher

    2003-01-01

    Direct computation of fan noise is presently not possible. One of the major difficulties is the geometrical complexity of the problem. In the case of fan noise, the blade geometry is critical to the loading on the blade and hence the intensity of the radiated noise. The precise geometry must be incorporated into the computation. In computational fluid dynamics (CFD), there are two general ways to handle problems with complex geometry. One way is to use unstructured grids. The other is to use body fitted overset grids. In the overset grid method, accurate data transfer is of utmost importance. For acoustic computation, it is not clear that the currently used data transfer methods are sufficiently accurate as not to contaminate the very small amplitude acoustic disturbances. In CFD, low order schemes are, invariably, used in conjunction with unstructured grids. However, low order schemes are known to be numerically dispersive and dissipative. dissipative errors are extremely undesirable for acoustic wave problems. The objective of this project is to develop a high order unstructured grid Dispersion-Relation-Preserving (DRP) scheme. would minimize numerical dispersion and dissipation errors. contains the results of the funded portion of the project. scheme on an unstructured grid has been developed. constructed in the wave number space. The characteristics of the scheme can be improved by the inclusion of additional constraints. Stability of the scheme has been investigated. Stability can be improved by adopting the upwinding strategy.

  7. Damage Prediction Models for Advanced Materials and Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xie, Ming; Ahmad, Jalees; Grady, Joseph E. (Technical Monitor)

    2005-01-01

    In the present study, the assessment and evaluation of various acoustic tile designs were conducted using three-dimensional finite element analysis, which included static analysis, thermal analysis and modal analysis of integral and non-integral tile design options. Various benchmark specimens for acoustic tile designs, including CMC integral T-joint and notched CMC plate, were tested in both room and elevated temperature environment. Various candidate ceramic matrix composite materials were used in the numerical modeling and experimental study. The research effort in this program evolved from numerical modeling and concept design to a combined numerical analysis and experimental study. Many subjects associated with the design and performance of the acoustic tile in jet engine exhaust nozzle have been investigated.

  8. Advancing Prediction of Foster Placement Disruption Using Brief Behavioral Screening

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hurlburt, Michael S.; Chamberlain, Patricia; DeGarmo, David; Zhang, Jinjin; Price, Joe M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Behavioral difficulties increase the risk that children will experience negative placement disruptions while in foster care. Chamberlain et al. (2006) found that the Parent Daily Report (PDR), a brief measure of parent-reported child behaviors, was a strong predictor of negative placement changes over 1 year among children receiving…

  9. Procedure for noise prediction and optimization of advanced technology propellers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jou, W. H.; Bernstein, S.

    1979-01-01

    The sound field due to a propeller operating at supersonic tip speed in a uniform flow was investigated. Using the fact that the wave front in a uniform stream is a convected sphere, the fundamental solution to the convected wave equation was easily obtained. The Fourier coefficients of the pressure signature were obtained by a far field approximation, and are expressed as an integral over the blade platform. It is shown that cones of silence exist fore and aft the propeller plane. The semiapex angles are shown. These angles are independent of the individual Mach components such as the flight Mach number and the rotation Mach number. The result is confirmed by the computation of the ray path of the emitted Mach waves. The Doppler amplification factor strengthens the signal behind the propeller while it weakens that upstream.

  10. Recent advancements in toxicity prediction following prostate cancer radiotherapy.

    PubMed

    Ospina, J D; Fargeas, A; Dréan, G; Simon, A; Acosta, O; de Crevoisier, R

    2015-01-01

    In external beam radiotherapy for prostate cancer limiting toxicities for dose escalation are bladder and rectum toxicities. Normal tissue complication probability models aim at quantifying the risk of developping adverse events following radiotherapy. These models, originally proposed in the context of uniform irradiation, have evolved to implementations based on the state-of-the-art classification methods which are trained using empirical data. Recently, the use of image processing techniques combined with population analysis methods has led to a new generation of models to understand the risk of normal tissue complications following radiotherapy. This paper overviews those methods in the case of prostate cancer radiation therapy and propose some lines of future research. PMID:26737471

  11. Measurement and modeling of advanced coal conversion processes

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, P.R.; Serio, M.A.; Hamblen, D.G.; Smoot, L.D.; Brewster, B.S. Brigham Young Univ., Provo, UT )

    1991-01-01

    The overall objective of this program is the development of predictive capability for the design, scale up, simulation, control and feedstock evaluation in advanced coal conversion devices. This program will merge significant advances made in measuring and quantitatively describing the mechanisms in coal conversion behavior. Comprehensive computer codes for mechanistic modeling of entrained-bed gasification. Additional capabilities in predicting pollutant formation will be implemented and the technology will be expanded to fixed-bed reactors.

  12. A Meta-Analysis of Advance-Organizer Studies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stone, Carol Leth

    Long term studies of advance organizers (AO) were analyzed with Glass's meta-analysis technique. AO's were defined as bridges from reader's previous knowledge to what is to be learned. The results were compared with predictions from Ausubel's model of assimilative learning. The results of the study indicated that advance organizers were associated…

  13. [Latest advances in chronic pancreatitis].

    PubMed

    Domínguez-Muñoz, J Enrique

    2014-09-01

    This article summarizes some of the recent and clinically relevant advances in chronic pancreatitis. These advances mainly concern the early diagnosis of the disease, the prediction of the fibrosis degree of the gland, the evaluation of patients with asymptomatic hyperenzimemia, the medical and surgical treatment of abdominal pain and the knowledge of the natural history of the autoimmune pancreatitis. In patients with indetermined EUS findings of chronic pancreatitis, a new endoscopic ultrasound examination in the follow-up is of help to confirm or to exclude the disease. Smoking, number of relapses, results of pancreatic function tests and EUS findings allow predicting the degree of pancreatic fibrosis in patients with chronic pancreatitis. Antioxidant therapy has shown to be effective in reducing pain secondary to chronic pancreatitis, although the type and optimal dose of antioxidants remains to be elucidated. Development of intestinal bacterial overgrowth is frequent in patients with chronic pancreatitis, but its impact on symptoms is unknown and deserves further investigations. Finally, autoimmune pancreatitis relapses in about half of the patients with either type 1 or type 2 disease; relapses frequently occur within the first two years of follow-up. PMID:25294271

  14. A correlational approach to predicting operator status

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shingledecker, Clark A.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses a research approach for identifying and validating candidate physiological and behavioral parameters which can be used to predict the performance capabilities of aircrew and other system operators. In this methodology, concurrent and advance correlations are computed between predictor values and criterion performance measures. Continuous performance and sleep loss are used as stressors to promote performance variation. Preliminary data are presented which suggest dependence of prediction capability on the resource allocation policy of the operator.

  15. Prior Knowledge or Advance Organizers as Effective Variables in Chemical Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fensham, P. J.; West, L. H. T.

    1976-01-01

    This report describes an attempt to apply a critical empirical test to some predictions from Ausubel's theory concerning the subsuming role of advance organizers. Alternative explanations are proposed and subsequent predictions tested. (BT)

  16. Advanced Hydrogen Turbine Development

    SciTech Connect

    Joesph Fadok

    2008-01-01

    Siemens has developed a roadmap to achieve the DOE goals for efficiency, cost reduction, and emissions through innovative approaches and novel technologies which build upon worldwide IGCC operational experience, platform technology, and extensive experience in G-class operating conditions. In Phase 1, the technologies and concepts necessary to achieve the program goals were identified for the gas turbine components and supporting technology areas and testing plans were developed to mitigate identified risks. Multiple studies were conducted to evaluate the impact in plant performance of different gas turbine and plant technologies. 2015 gas turbine technologies showed a significant improvement in IGCC plant efficiency, however, a severe performance penalty was calculated for high carbon capture cases. Thermodynamic calculations showed that the DOE 2010 and 2015 efficiency targets can be met with a two step approach. A risk management process was instituted in Phase 1 to identify risk and develop mitigation plans. For the risks identified, testing and development programs are in place and the risks will be revisited periodically to determine if changes to the plan are necessary. A compressor performance prediction has shown that the design of the compressor for the engine can be achieved with additional stages added to the rear of the compressor. Tip clearance effects were studied as well as a range of flow and pressure ratios to evaluate the impacts to both performance and stability. Considerable data was obtained on the four candidate combustion systems: diffusion, catalytic, premix, and distributed combustion. Based on the results of Phase 1, the premixed combustion system and the distributed combustion system were chosen as having the most potential and will be the focus of Phase 2 of the program. Significant progress was also made in obtaining combustion kinetics data for high hydrogen fuels. The Phase 1 turbine studies indicate initial feasibility of the

  17. ADVANCED TURBINE SYSTEMS PROGRAM

    SciTech Connect

    Sy Ali

    2002-03-01

    The market for power generation equipment is undergoing a tremendous transformation. The traditional electric utility industry is restructuring, promising new opportunities and challenges for all facilities to meet their demands for electric and thermal energy. Now more than ever, facilities have a host of options to choose from, including new distributed generation (DG) technologies that are entering the market as well as existing DG options that are improving in cost and performance. The market is beginning to recognize that some of these users have needs beyond traditional grid-based power. Together, these changes are motivating commercial and industrial facilities to re-evaluate their current mix of energy services. One of the emerging generating options is a new breed of advanced fuel cells. While there are a variety of fuel cell technologies being developed, the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) and molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFC) are especially promising, with their electric efficiency expected around 50-60 percent and their ability to generate either hot water or high quality steam. In addition, they both have the attractive characteristics of all fuel cells--relatively small siting footprint, rapid response to changing loads, very low emissions, quiet operation, and an inherently modular design lending itself to capacity expansion at predictable unit cost with reasonably short lead times. The objectives of this project are to:(1) Estimate the market potential for high efficiency fuel cell hybrids in the U.S.;(2) Segment market size by commercial, industrial, and other key markets;(3) Identify and evaluate potential early adopters; and(4) Develop results that will help prioritize and target future R&D investments. The study focuses on high efficiency MCFC- and SOFC-based hybrids and competing systems such as gas turbines, reciprocating engines, fuel cells and traditional grid service. Specific regions in the country have been identified where these

  18. Atlantic opportunities for ENSO prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    del Rey, Marta Martin; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Polo, Irene

    2015-04-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical climate variability with worldwide impacts. Major advances in ENSO research have been done in the last decades, focusing on the mechanisms involved in its onset and development, as well as, its global climate teleconnections. Although modelling efforts have been made in ENSO forecast, the prediction of these episodes still remains a challenge for the scientific community. Recent studies put forward the role of extra-tropical and tropical regions as precursors of ENSO, but these teleconnections have changed along the 20th century. In particular, an Atlantic Niño precedes the development of a Pacific La Niña (and vice versa) 6 months in advance, taking part of an air-sea coupled mode of variability which only shows up during negative phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The non-stationarity of this mode opens window opportunities for ENSO forecast, using the Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the predictor field. Here, we present for the first time a statistical crossvalidated hindcast of ENSO events based on an Extended Multiple Maximum Covariance Analysis (EMMCA). This method considers a unique predictor field, the summer Atlantic SSTs, and a set of predictant fields in different regions and seasons, according to the Atlantic-Pacific mechanism. The predicted tropical Pacific variables involved in ENSO development, show a good agreement with the observed ones during negative AMO phases, with a remarkable increase of the predictability skill based on correlations. During those negative AMO decades, the hindcast reproduces quite well the observed Atlantic-modulated ENSO episodes, but with stronger signal than observations. This AMO-dependency of the ENSO predictability could help to resolve some open questions about the seasonal to decadal ENSO forecast and its impacts.

  19. Advance Care Planning.

    PubMed

    Stallworthy, Elizabeth J

    2013-04-16

    Advance care planning should be available to all patients with chronic kidney disease, including end-stage kidney disease on renal replacement therapy. Advance care planning is a process of patient-centred discussion, ideally involving family/significant others, to assist the patient to understand how their illness might affect them, identify their goals and establish how medical treatment might help them to achieve these. An Advance Care Plan is only one useful outcome from the Advance Care Planning process, the education of patient and family around prognosis and treatment options is likely to be beneficial whether or not a plan is written or the individual loses decision making capacity at the end of life. Facilitating Advance Care Planning discussions requires an understanding of their purpose and communication skills which need to be taught. Advance Care Planning needs to be supported by effective systems to enable the discussions and any resulting Plans to be used to aid subsequent decision making. PMID:23586906

  20. Hydromechanical Advanced Coal Excavator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estus, Jay M.; Summers, David

    1990-01-01

    Water-jet cutting reduces coal dust and its hazards. Advanced mining system utilizes full-face, hydromechanical, continuous miner. Coal excavator uses high-pressure water-jet lances, one in each of cutting heads and one in movable lance, to make cuts across top, bottom and middle height, respectively, of coal face. Wedge-shaped cutting heads advance into lower and upper cuts in turn, thereby breaking coal toward middle cut. Thrust cylinders and walking pads advance excavator toward coal face.

  1. Advanced Turbofan Duct Liner Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bielak, Gerald W.; Premo, John W.; Hersh, Alan S.

    1999-01-01

    The Advanced Subsonic Technology Noise Reduction Program goal is to reduce aircraft noise by 10 EPNdB by the year 2000 relative, to 1992 technology. The improvement goal for nacelle attenuation is 25% relative to 1992 technology by 1997 and 50% by 2000. The Advanced Turbofan Duct Liner Concepts Task work by Boeing presented in this document was in support of these goals. The basis for the technical approach was a Boeing study conducted in 1993-94 under NASA/FAA contract NAS1-19349, Task 6, investigating broadband acoustic liner concepts. As a result of this work, it was recommended that linear double layer, linear and perforate triple layer, parallel element, and bulk absorber liners be further investigated to improve nacelle attenuations. NASA LaRC also suggested that "adaptive" liner concepts that would allow "in-situ" acoustic impedance control also be considered. As a result, bias flow and high-temperature liner concepts were also added to the investigation. The major conclusion from the above studies is that improvements in nacelle liner average acoustic impedance characteristics alone will not result in 25% increased nacelle noise reduction relative to 1992 technology. Nacelle design advancements currently being developed by Boeing are expected to add 20-40% more acoustic lining to hardwall regions in current inlets, which is predicted to result in and additional 40-80% attenuation improvement. Similar advancements are expected to allow 10-30% more acoustic lining in current fan ducts with 10-30% more attenuation expected. In addition, Boeing is currently developing a scarf inlet concept which is expected to give an additional 40-80% attenuation improvement for equivalent lining areas.

  2. ADVANCED CUTTINGS TRANSPORT STUDY

    SciTech Connect

    Stefan Miska; Troy Reed; Ergun Kuru

    2004-09-30

    The Advanced Cuttings Transport Study (ACTS) was a 5-year JIP project undertaken at the University of Tulsa (TU). The project was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and JIP member companies. The objectives of the project were: (1) to develop and construct a new research facility that would allow three-phase (gas, liquid and cuttings) flow experiments under ambient and EPET (elevated pressure and temperature) conditions, and at different angle of inclinations and drill pipe rotation speeds; (2) to conduct experiments and develop a data base for the industry and academia; and (3) to develop mechanistic models for optimization of drilling hydraulics and cuttings transport. This project consisted of research studies, flow loop construction and instrumentation development. Following a one-year period for basic flow loop construction, a proposal was submitted by TU to the DOE for a five-year project that was organized in such a manner as to provide a logical progression of research experiments as well as additions to the basic flow loop. The flow loop additions and improvements included: (1) elevated temperature capability; (2) two-phase (gas and liquid, foam etc.) capability; (3) cuttings injection and removal system; (4) drill pipe rotation system; and (5) drilling section elevation system. In parallel with the flow loop construction, hydraulics and cuttings transport studies were preformed using drilling foams and aerated muds. In addition, hydraulics and rheology of synthetic drilling fluids were investigated. The studies were performed under ambient and EPET conditions. The effects of temperature and pressure on the hydraulics and cuttings transport were investigated. Mechanistic models were developed to predict frictional pressure loss and cuttings transport in horizontal and near-horizontal configurations. Model predictions were compared with the measured data. Predominantly, model predictions show satisfactory agreements with the measured data. As a

  3. GAPIT: genome association and prediction integrated tool

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Advances in high throughput sequencing have improved the detection of genes underlying important traits as well as the prediction accuracy of disease risk and breeding value of crop or livestock. Software programs developed to perform statistical genetic analysis that support these activities should...

  4. ADVANCED SEISMIC BASE ISOLATION METHODS FOR MODULAR REACTORS

    SciTech Connect

    E. Blanford; E. Keldrauk; M. Laufer; M. Mieler; J. Wei; B. Stojadinovic; P.F. Peterson

    2010-09-20

    Advanced technologies for structural design and construction have the potential for major impact not only on nuclear power plant construction time and cost, but also on the design process and on the safety, security and reliability of next generation of nuclear power plants. In future Generation IV (Gen IV) reactors, structural and seismic design should be much more closely integrated with the design of nuclear and industrial safety systems, physical security systems, and international safeguards systems. Overall reliability will be increased, through the use of replaceable and modular equipment, and through design to facilitate on-line monitoring, in-service inspection, maintenance, replacement, and decommissioning. Economics will also receive high design priority, through integrated engineering efforts to optimize building arrangements to minimize building heights and footprints. Finally, the licensing approach will be transformed by becoming increasingly performance based and technology neutral, using best-estimate simulation methods with uncertainty and margin quantification. In this context, two structural engineering technologies, seismic base isolation and modular steel-plate/concrete composite structural walls, are investigated. These technologies have major potential to (1) enable standardized reactor designs to be deployed across a wider range of sites, (2) reduce the impact of uncertainties related to site-specific seismic conditions, and (3) alleviate reactor equipment qualification requirements. For Gen IV reactors the potential for deliberate crashes of large aircraft must also be considered in design. This report concludes that base-isolated structures should be decoupled from the reactor external event exclusion system. As an example, a scoping analysis is performed for a rectangular, decoupled external event shell designed as a grillage. This report also reviews modular construction technology, particularly steel-plate/concrete construction using

  5. Research needs in aircraft noise prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raney, J. P.

    1975-01-01

    Progress needed in understanding the mechanisms of aircraft noise generation and propagation is outlined using the focus provided by the need to predict accurately the noise produced and received at the ground by an aircraft operating in the vicinity of an airport. The components of internal engine noise generation, jet exhaust, airframe noise and shielding and configuration effects, and the roles of atmospheric propagation and ground noise attenuation are presented and related to the prediction problem. The role of NASA in providing the focus and direction for needed advances is discussed, and possible contributions of the academic community in helping to fulfill the needs for accurate aircraft noise prediction methods are suggested.

  6. Predicting operator workload during system design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aldrich, Theodore B.; Szabo, Sandra M.

    1988-01-01

    A workload prediction methodology was developed in response to the need to measure workloads associated with operation of advanced aircraft. The application of the methodology will involve: (1) conducting mission/task analyses of critical mission segments and assigning estimates of workload for the sensory, cognitive, and psychomotor workload components of each task identified; (2) developing computer-based workload prediction models using the task analysis data; and (3) exercising the computer models to produce predictions of crew workload under varying automation and/or crew configurations. Critical issues include reliability and validity of workload predictors and selection of appropriate criterion measures.

  7. Vertical Lip Position and Thickness in Facial Reconstruction: A Validation of Commonly Used Methods for Predicting the Position and Size of Lips.

    PubMed

    Zednikova Mala, Pavla; Veleminska, Jana

    2016-07-01

    This study examined several methods used to estimate oral fissure position, lip margin position, and lip thickness recommended by Angel, George, Lebedinskaya, Taylor, Wilkinson et al., Balueva and Veselovskaya. A sample of 86 lateral head cephalograms of adult subjects from central Europe were measured and the actual and predicted dimensions were compared. The best estimation for oral fissure position was "opposite the lower ¾ mark of maxillary incisors" (error of 1.3 mm). Upper lip margin was predicted best by "upper ¼ mark of maxillary incisors" (error of 1.7 mm), and lower lip margin by "cementum-enamel junction of mandibular incisors" (error of 2.3 mm). The regression equations of Wilkinson et al. displayed least error (1.3 mm and 1.8 mm, respectively) for upper and lower lip thickness, and method of George (error of 3.4 mm) for total lip thickness. PMID:27364286

  8. Advanced MR Imaging of Gliomas: An Update

    PubMed Central

    Chiang, Shih-Wei; Chung, Hsiao-Wen; Tsai, Fong Y.; Chen, Cheng-Yu

    2013-01-01

    Recent advances in the treatment of cerebral gliomas have increased the demands on noninvasive neuroimaging for the diagnosis, therapeutic planning, tumor monitoring, and patient outcome prediction. In the meantime, improved magnetic resonance (MR) imaging techniques have shown much potentials in evaluating the key pathological features of the gliomas, including cellularity, invasiveness, mitotic activity, angiogenesis, and necrosis, hence, further shedding light on glioma grading before treatment. In this paper, an update of advanced MR imaging techniques is reviewed, and their potential roles as biomarkers of tumor grading are discussed. PMID:23862163

  9. Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Theresa F.

    In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

  10. Advanced Airspace Concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Erzberger, Heinz

    2002-01-01

    A general overview of the Advanced Airspace Concept (AAC) is presented. The topics include: 1) Limitations of the existing system; 2) The Advanced Airspace Concept; 3) Candidate architecture for the AAC; 4) Separation assurance and conflict avoidance system (TSAFE); and 5) Ground-Air Interactions. This paper is in viewgraph form.

  11. Kansas Advanced Semiconductor Project

    SciTech Connect

    Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Bolton, T.; Horton-Smith, G.; Maravin, Y.; Ratra, B.; Stanton, N.; von Toerne, E.; Wilson, G.

    2007-09-21

    KASP (Kansas Advanced Semiconductor Project) completed the new Layer 0 upgrade for D0, assumed key electronics projects for the US CMS project, finished important new physics measurements with the D0 experiment at Fermilab, made substantial contributions to detector studies for the proposed e+e- international linear collider (ILC), and advanced key initiatives in non-accelerator-based neutrino physics.

  12. Advanced Engineering Fibers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edie, Dan D.; Dunham, Michael G.

    1987-01-01

    Describes Clemson University's Advanced Engineered Fibers Laboratory, which was established to provide national leadership and expertise in developing the processing equipment and advance fibers necessary for the chemical, fiber, and textile industries to enter the composite materials market. Discusses some of the laboratory's activities in…

  13. Advanced Manufacturing Technologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fikes, John

    2016-01-01

    Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMT) is developing and maturing innovative and advanced manufacturing technologies that will enable more capable and lower-cost spacecraft, launch vehicles and infrastructure to enable exploration missions. The technologies will utilize cutting edge materials and emerging capabilities including metallic processes, additive manufacturing, composites, and digital manufacturing. The AMT project supports the National Manufacturing Initiative involving collaboration with other government agencies.

  14. Advanced Life Support

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chambliss, Joe

    2004-01-01

    Viewgraphs on Advanced Life Support (ALS) Systems are presented. The topics include: 1) Fundamental Need for Advanced Life Support; 2) ALS organization; 3) Requirements and Rationale; 4) Past Integrated tests; 5) The need for improvements in life support systems; 6) ALS approach to meet exploration goals; 7) ALS Projects showing promise to meet exploration goals; and 9) GRC involvement in ALS.

  15. Drilling at Advanced Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Case, Doug

    1977-01-01

    Instances where drilling is useful for advanced language are discussed. Several types of drills are recommended, with the philosophy that advanced level drills should have a lighter style and be regarded as a useful, occasional means of practicing individual new items. (CHK)

  16. Advanced Chemical Propulsion Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woodcock, Gordon; Byers, Dave; Alexander, Leslie A.; Krebsbach, Al

    2004-01-01

    A study was performed of advanced chemical propulsion technology application to space science (Code S) missions. The purpose was to begin the process of selecting chemical propulsion technology advancement activities that would provide greatest benefits to Code S missions. Several missions were selected from Code S planning data, and a range of advanced chemical propulsion options was analyzed to assess capabilities and benefits re these missions. Selected beneficial applications were found for higher-performing bipropellants, gelled propellants, and cryogenic propellants. Technology advancement recommendations included cryocoolers and small turbopump engines for cryogenic propellants; space storable propellants such as LOX-hydrazine; and advanced monopropellants. It was noted that fluorine-bearing oxidizers offer performance gains over more benign oxidizers. Potential benefits were observed for gelled propellants that could be allowed to freeze, then thawed for use.

  17. Downstream prediction using a nonlinear prediction method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adenan, N. H.; Noorani, M. S. M.

    2013-11-01

    The estimation of river flow is significantly related to the impact of urban hydrology, as this could provide information to solve important problems, such as flooding downstream. The nonlinear prediction method has been employed for analysis of four years of daily river flow data for the Langat River at Kajang, Malaysia, which is located in a downstream area. The nonlinear prediction method involves two steps; namely, the reconstruction of phase space and prediction. The reconstruction of phase space involves reconstruction from a single variable to the m-dimensional phase space in which the dimension m is based on optimal values from two methods: the correlation dimension method (Model I) and false nearest neighbour(s) (Model II). The selection of an appropriate method for selecting a combination of preliminary parameters, such as m, is important to provide an accurate prediction. From our investigation, we gather that via manipulation of the appropriate parameters for the reconstruction of the phase space, Model II provides better prediction results. In particular, we have used Model II together with the local linear prediction method to achieve the prediction results for the downstream area with a high correlation coefficient. In summary, the results show that Langat River in Kajang is chaotic, and, therefore, predictable using the nonlinear prediction method. Thus, the analysis and prediction of river flow in this area can provide river flow information to the proper authorities for the construction of flood control, particularly for the downstream area.

  18. Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

    DOEpatents

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

    2008-11-25

    A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

  19. Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Ex-Vessel Prediction: Core Concrete Interaction

    SciTech Connect

    Robb, Kevin R; Farmer, Mitchell; Francis, Matthew W

    2015-01-01

    Lower head failure and corium concrete interaction were predicted to occur at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 (1F1) by several different system-level code analyses, including MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5. Although these codes capture a wide range of accident phenomena, they do not contain detailed models for ex-vessel core melt behavior. However, specialized codes exist for analysis of ex-vessel melt spreading (e.g., MELTSPREAD) and long-term debris coolability (e.g., CORQUENCH). On this basis, an analysis was carried out to further evaluate ex-vessel behavior for 1F1 using MELTSPREAD and CORQUENCH. Best-estimate melt pour conditions predicted by MELCOR v2.1 and MAAP5 were used as input. MELTSPREAD was then used to predict the spatially dependent melt conditions and extent of spreading during relocation from the vessel. The results of the MELTSPREAD analysis are reported in a companion paper. This information was used as input for the long-term debris coolability analysis with CORQUENCH.

  20. FOREWORD: Focus on Advanced Ceramics Focus on Advanced Ceramics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohashi, Naoki

    2011-06-01

    Much research has been devoted recently to developing technologies for renewable energy and improving the efficiency of the processes and devices used in industry and everyday life. Efficient solutions have been found using novel materials such as platinum and palladium-based catalysts for car exhaust systems, samarium-cobalt and neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets for electrical motors, and so on. However, their realization has resulted in an increasing demand for rare elements and in their deficit, the development of new materials based on more abundant elements and new functionalities of traditional materials. Moreover, increasing environmental and health concerns demand substitution of toxic or hazardous substances with nature-friendly alternatives. In this context, this focus issue on advanced ceramics aims to review current trends in ceramics science and technology. It is related to the International Conference on Science and Technology of Advanced Ceramics (STAC) held annually to discuss the emerging issues in the field of ceramics. An important direction of ceramic science is the collaboration between experimental and theoretical sciences. Recent developments in density functional theory and computer technology have enabled the prediction of physical and chemical properties of ceramics, thereby assisting the design of new materials. Therefore, this focus issue includes articles devoted to theory and advanced characterization techniques. As mentioned above, the potential shortage of rare elements is becoming critical to the industry and has resulted in a Japanese government initiative called the 'Ubiquitous Element Strategy'. This focus issue also includes articles related to this strategy and to the associated topics of energy conversion, such as phosphors for high-efficiency lighting and photocatalysts for solar-energy harvesting. We hope that this focus issue will provide a timely overview of current trends and problems in ceramics science and

  1. Advances and trends in computational structural mechanics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, A. K.

    1986-01-01

    Recent developments in computational structural mechanics are reviewed with reference to computational needs for future structures technology, advances in computational models for material behavior, discrete element technology, assessment and control of numerical simulations of structural response, hybrid analysis, and techniques for large-scale optimization. Research areas in computational structural mechanics which have high potential for meeting future technological needs are identified. These include prediction and analysis of the failure of structural components made of new materials, development of computational strategies and solution methodologies for large-scale structural calculations, and assessment of reliability and adaptive improvement of response predictions.

  2. Advanced high frequency partial discharge measuring system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karady, George G.

    1994-01-01

    This report explains the Advanced Partial Discharge Measuring System in ASU's High Voltage Laboratory and presents some of the results obtained using the setup. While in operation an insulation is subjected to wide ranging temperature and voltage stresses. Hence, it is necessary to study the effect of temperature on the behavior of partial discharges in an insulation. The setup described in this report can be used to test samples at temperatures ranging from -50 C to 200 C. The aim of conducting the tests described herein is to be able to predict the behavior of an insulation under different operating conditions in addition to being able to predict the possibility of failure.

  3. Advance Noise Control Fan II: Test Rig Fan Risk Management Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lucero, John

    2013-01-01

    Since 1995 the Advanced Noise Control Fan (ANCF) has significantly contributed to the advancement of the understanding of the physics of fan tonal noise generation. The 9'x15' WT has successfully tested multiple high speed fan designs over the last several decades. This advanced several tone noise reduction concepts to higher TRL and the validation of fan tone noise prediction codes.

  4. Recent Advances in Conformal Gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Brien, James; Chaykov, Spasen

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, significant advances have been made in alternative gravitational theories. Although MOND remains the leading candidate among the alternative models, Conformal Gravity has been studied by Mannheim and O'Brien to solve the rotation curve problem without the need for dark matter. Recently, Mannheim, O'Brien and Chaykov have begun solving other gravitational questions in Conformal Gravity. In this presentation, we highlight the new work of Conformal Gravity's application to random motions of clusters (the original Zwicky problem), gravitational bending of light, gravitational lensing and a very recent survey of dwarf galaxy rotation curves. We will show in each case that Conformal Gravity can provide an accurate explanation and prediction of the data without the need for dark matter. Coupled with the fact that Conformal Gravity is a fully re-normalizable metric theory of gravity, these results help to push Conformal Gravity onto a competitive stage against other alternative models.

  5. Is there a single best estimator? selection of home range estimators using area- under- the-curve

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walter, William D.; Onorato, Dave P.; Fischer, Justin W.

    2015-01-01

    Comparisons of fit of home range contours with locations collected would suggest that use of VHF technology is not as accurate as GPS technology to estimate size of home range for large mammals. Estimators of home range collected with GPS technology performed better than those estimated with VHF technology regardless of estimator used. Furthermore, estimators that incorporate a temporal component (third-generation estimators) appeared to be the most reliable regardless of whether kernel-based or Brownian bridge-based algorithms were used and in comparison to first- and second-generation estimators. We defined third-generation estimators of home range as any estimator that incorporates time, space, animal-specific parameters, and habitat. Such estimators would include movement-based kernel density, Brownian bridge movement models, and dynamic Brownian bridge movement models among others that have yet to be evaluated.

  6. How do we best estimate fluvial flood risk in urban environments? : The case of the city of Eilenburg, Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Longo, Elisa; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Mukolwe, Micah

    2015-04-01

    Flooding is one of the most impactful natural hazards. In particular, by looking at the data of damages from natural hazards in Europe collected in the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) one can see a significant increase over the past four decades of both frequency of floods and associated economic damages. Similarly, dramatic trends are also found by analyzing other types of flood losses, such as the number of people affected by floods, homeless, injured or killed. To deal with the aforementioned increase of flood risk, more and more efforts are being made to promote integrated flood risk management, for instance, at the end of 2007, the European Community (EC) issued the Flood Directive (F.D.) 2007/60/EC. One of the major innovations was that the F.D. 2007/60/C requires Member State to carry out risk maps and then take appropriate measures to reduce the evaluated risk. The main goal of this research was to estimate flood damaging using a computer code based on a recently developed method (KULTURisk, www.kulturisk.eu) and to compare the estimated damage with the observed one. The study area was the municipality of Eilenburg, which in 2002 was subjected to a destructive flood event. Were produced flood damage maps with new procedures (e.g. KULTURisk) and compared the estimates with observed data. This study showed the possibility to extend the lesson learned with the Eilenburg case study in other similar contexts. The outcomes of this test provided interesting insights about the flood risk mapping, which are expected to contribute to raise awareness to the flooding issues,to plan (structural and/or non-structural) measures of flood risk reduction and to support better land-use and urban planning.

  7. Best-estimate Mark 22 power and temperature limits during the flow instability phase of K Reactor LBLOCAs

    SciTech Connect

    Rodriguez, S.; Steiner, J.; Motley, F.; Morgan, M.

    1992-03-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has been providing independent analyses to the Department of Energy in its endeavor to enhance the safe operation of the K Reactor located at the Savannah River Laboratory (SRL). LANL has performed neutronic and thermal-hydraulic system simulations to assess the impact of hypothesized accidents in the K Reactor. In particular, the large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) was one of the major transients that was analyzed. The LBLOCA consists of two distinct thermal-hydraulic phases: the flow instability (FI) phase and the emergency coolant system (ECS) phase. Each phase results in reactor temperature and power limits that are determined using different criteria. This document provides a detailed discussion of the simulations of these phases.

  8. The ADvanced SEParation (ADSEP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    The ADvanced SEParation (ADSEP) commercial payload is making use of major advances in separation technology: The Phase Partitioning Experiment (PPE); the Micorencapsulation experiment; and the Hemoglobin Separation Experiment (HSE). Using ADSEP, commercial researchers will attempt to determine the partition coefficients for model particles in a two-phase system. With this information, researchers can develop a higher resolution, more effective cell isolation procedure that can be used for many different types of research and for improved health care. The advanced separation technology is already being made available for use in ground-based laboratories.

  9. Advanced information society(7)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiba, Toshihiro

    Various threats are hiding in advanced informationalized society. As we see car accident problems in motorization society light aspects necessarily accompy shady ones. Under the changing circumstances of advanced informationalization added values of information has become much higher. It causes computer crime, hacker, computer virus to come to the surface. In addition it can be said that infringement of intellectual property and privacy are threats brought by advanced information. Against these threats legal, institutional and insurance measures have been progressed, and newly security industry has been established. However, they are not adequate individually or totally. The future vision should be clarified, and countermeasures according to the visions have to be considered.

  10. Development of Advanced Alarm System for SMART

    SciTech Connect

    Jang, Gwi-sook; Seoung, Duk-hyun; Suh, Sang-moon; Lee, Jong-bok; Park, Geun-ok; Koo, In-soo

    2004-07-01

    A SMART-Alarm System (SMART-AS) is a new system being developed as part of the SMART (System-integrated Modular Advanced Reactor) project. The SMART-AS employs modern digital technology to implement the alarm functions of the SMART. The use of modern digital technology can provide advanced alarm processing in which new algorithms such as a signal validation, advanced alarm processing logic and other features are applied to improve the control room man-machine interfaces. This paper will describe the design process of the SMART-AS, improving the system reliability and availability using the reliability prediction tool, design strategies regarding the human performance topics associated with a computer-based SMART-AS and the results of the performance analysis using a prototype of the SMART-AS. (authors)

  11. Controlling air toxics through advanced coal preparation

    SciTech Connect

    Straszheim, W.E.; Buttermore, W.H.; Pollard, J.L.

    1995-11-01

    This project involves the assessment of advanced coal preparation methods for removing trace elements from coal to reduce the potential for air toxic emissions upon combustion. Scanning electron microscopy-based automated image analysis (SEM-AIA) and advanced washability analyses are being applied with state-of-the-art analytical procedures to predict the removal of elements of concern by advanced column flotation and to confirm the effectiveness of preparation on the quality of quantity of clean coal produced. Specific objectives are to maintain an acceptable recovery of combustible product, while improving the rejection of mineral-associated trace elements. Current work has focused on determining conditions for controlling column flotation system across its operating range and on selection and analysis of samples for determining trace element cleanability.

  12. Advanced Vadose Zone Simulations Using TOUGH

    SciTech Connect

    Finsterle, S.; Doughty, C.; Kowalsky, M.B.; Moridis, G.J.; Pan,L.; Xu, T.; Zhang, Y.; Pruess, K.

    2007-02-01

    The vadose zone can be characterized as a complex subsurfacesystem in which intricate physical and biogeochemical processes occur inresponse to a variety of natural forcings and human activities. Thismakes it difficult to describe, understand, and predict the behavior ofthis specific subsurface system. The TOUGH nonisothermal multiphase flowsimulators are well-suited to perform advanced vadose zone studies. Theconceptual models underlying the TOUGH simulators are capable ofrepresenting features specific to the vadose zone, and of addressing avariety of coupled phenomena. Moreover, the simulators are integratedinto software tools that enable advanced data analysis, optimization, andsystem-level modeling. We discuss fundamental and computationalchallenges in simulating vadose zone processes, review recent advances inmodeling such systems, and demonstrate some capabilities of the TOUGHsuite of codes using illustrative examples.

  13. Advanced space power PEM fuel cell systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vanderborgh, N. E.; Hedstrom, J.; Huff, J. R.

    1989-01-01

    A model showing mass and heat transfer in proton exchange membrane (PEM) single cells is presented. For space applications, stack operation requiring combined water and thermal management is needed. Advanced hardware designs able to combine these two techniques are available. Test results are shown for membrane materials which can operate with sufficiently fast diffusive water transport to sustain current densities of 300 ma per square centimeter. Higher power density levels are predicted to require active water removal.

  14. Delayed coker fractionator advanced control

    SciTech Connect

    Jaisinghani, R.; Minter, B. ); Tica, A.; Puglesi, A.; Ojeda, R. )

    1993-08-01

    In a delayed coking process, as coke drum switches are made, rapid changes occur in both the fractionator feed rate and composition. With conventional control, it is not unusual to see long transient behavior of large swings in both quality and flowrates of coker gas oils. This can extract a heavy economic toll, not only in coker operation, but in the operation of downstream units as the upset is propagated. An advanced process control application (APC) was recently implemented on the coker fractionator at the Yacimentos Petroliferos Fiscales (YPF), Lujan de Cuyo Refinery, in Mendoza, Argentina. This coker fractionator control design was unique as it handled two different operating objectives: control of product qualities via tower temperature profile during normal operation and control of gas oil product flow ratio during drum switch. This combination of control objectives in one multivariable predictive control program was achieved by including special logic to decouple the individual tuning requirements. Also, additional logic was included to unambiguously detect and identify drum switch and drum steam out as discrete events within 30 seconds of their actual occurrence. These discrete events were then used as disturbance variables to minimize fractionator transient behavior. As a performance measure, the overhead temperature was controlled within 2 C to 2.5 C of its target, gas oil flows were stabilized during drum switches and steam generation via pump around was maximized. Overall, implementing advanced control for the delayed coker fractionator resulted in substantial benefits from product quality control, product flow control and minimized energy consumption.

  15. Advanced information society(2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masuyama, Keiichi

    Our modern life is full of information and information infiltrates into our daily life. Networking of the telecommunication is extended to society, company, and individual level. Although we have just entered the advanced information society, business world and our daily life have been steadily transformed by the advancement of information network. This advancement of information brings a big influence on economy, and will play they the main role in the expansion of domestic demands. This paper tries to view the image of coming advanced information society, focusing on the transforming businessman's life and the situation of our daily life, which became wealthy by the spread of daily life information and the visual information by satellite system, in the development of the intelligent city.

  16. Advanced launch system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Monk, Jan C.

    1991-01-01

    The Advanced Launch System (ALS) is presented. The costs, reliability, capabilities, infrastructure are briefly described. Quality approach, failure modes, structural design, technology benefits, and key facilities are outlined. This presentation is represented by viewgraphs.

  17. Advanced camera for surveys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clampin, Mark; Ford, Holland C.; Bartko, Frank; Bely, Pierre Y.; Broadhurst, Tom; Burrows, Christopher J.; Cheng, Edward S.; Crocker, James H.; Franx, Marijn; Feldman, Paul D.; Golimowski, David A.; Hartig, George F.; Illingworth, Garth; Kimble, Randy A.; Lesser, Michael P.; Miley, George H.; Postman, Marc; Rafal, Marc D.; Rosati, Piero; Sparks, William B.; Tsvetanov, Zlatan; White, Richard L.; Sullivan, Pamela; Volmer, Paul; LaJeunesse, Tom

    2000-07-01

    The Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) is a third generation instrument for the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). It is currently planned for installation in HST during the fourth servicing mission in Summer 2001. The ACS will have three cameras.

  18. The Advanced Energy Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milliken, JoAnn; Joseck, Fred; Wang, Michael; Yuzugullu, Elvin

    The President's Advanced Energy Initiative (AEI), launched in 2006, addresses the challenges of energy supply and demand facing our Nation by supporting research and development of advanced technologies for transportation and stationary power generation. The AEI portfolio includes clean coal, nuclear and renewable energy technologies (solar and wind) for stationary power generation and advanced battery technologies, cellulosic ethanol as a fuel and hydrogen fuel cells for transportation. These research and development programs are underpinned by comprehensive life-cycle analysis efforts using models such as Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) and Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) to enable a better understanding of the characteristics and trade-offs associated with advanced energy options and to help decision makers choose viable pathways for clean, reliable and affordable energy.

  19. Advances in Process Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, David L.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    Advances in electronics and computer science have enabled industries (pulp/paper, iron/steel, petroleum/chemical) to attain better control of their processes with resulting increases in quality, productivity, profitability, and compliance with government regulations. (JN)

  20. Advanced Welding Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ding, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    Four advanced welding techniques and their use in NASA are briefly reviewed in this poster presentation. The welding techniques reviewed are: Solid State Welding, Friction Stir Welding (FSW), Thermal Stir Welding (TSW) and Ultrasonic Stir Welding.

  1. Advances in cell culture

    SciTech Connect

    Maramorosch, K. )

    1987-01-01

    This book presents papers on advances in cell culture. Topics covered include: Genetic changes in the influenza viruses during growth in cultured cells; The biochemistry and genetics of mosquito cells in culture; and Tree tissue culture applications.

  2. Advanced Lab Consortium ``Conspiracy''

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichert, Jonathan F.

    2006-03-01

    Advanced Laboratory instruction is a time-honored and essential element of an undergraduate physics education. But, from my vantage point, it has been neglected by the two major professional societies, APS and AAPT. At some schools, it has been replaced by ``research experiences,'' but I contend that very few of these experiences in the research lab, particularly in the junior year, deliver what they promise. It is time to focus the attention of APS, AAPT, and the NSF on the advanced lab. We need to create an Advanced Lab Consortium (ALC) of faculty and staff to share experiments, suppliers, materials, pedagogy, ideas, in short to build a professional network for those committed to advanced lab instruction. The AAPT is currently in serious discussions on this topic and my company stands ready with both financial and personnel resources to support the effort. This talk is a plea for co-conspirators.

  3. Descendants and advance directives.

    PubMed

    Buford, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Some of the concerns that have been raised in connection to the use of advance directives are of the epistemic variety. Such concerns highlight the possibility that adhering to an advance directive may conflict with what the author of the directive actually wants (or would want) at the time of treatment. However, at least one objection to the employment of advance directives is metaphysical in nature. The objection to be discussed here, first formulated by Rebecca Dresser and labeled by Allen Buchanan as the slavery argument and David DeGrazia the someone else problem, aims to undermine the legitimacy of certain uses of advance directives by concluding that such uses rest upon an incorrect assumption about the identity over time of those ostensibly governed by the directives. There have been numerous attempts to respond to this objection. This paper aims to assess two strategies that have been pursued to cope with the problem. PMID:25743056

  4. Advanced space propulsion concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lapointe, Michael R.

    1993-01-01

    The NASA Lewis Research Center has been actively involved in the evaluation and development of advanced spacecraft propulsion. Recent program elements have included high energy density propellants, electrode less plasma thruster concepts, and low power laser propulsion technology. A robust advanced technology program is necessary to develop new, cost-effective methods of spacecraft propulsion, and to continue to push the boundaries of human knowledge and technology.

  5. Advanced planetary studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    Results of planetary advanced studies and planning support provided by Science Applications, Inc. staff members to Earth and Planetary Exploration Division, OSSA/NASA, for the period 1 February 1981 to 30 April 1982 are summarized. The scope of analyses includes cost estimation, planetary missions performance, solar system exploration committee support, Mars program planning, Galilean satellite mission concepts, and advanced propulsion data base. The work covers 80 man-months of research. Study reports and related publications are included in a bibliography section.

  6. Advanced Welding Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ding, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    Some of the applications of advanced welding techniques are shown in this poster presentation. Included are brief explanations of the use on the Ares I and Ares V launch vehicle and on the Space Shuttle Launch vehicle. Also included are microstructural views from four advanced welding techniques: Variable Polarity Plasma Arc (VPPA) weld (fusion), self-reacting friction stir welding (SR-FSW), conventional FSW, and Tube Socket Weld (TSW) on aluminum.

  7. Advanced drilling systems study

    SciTech Connect

    Pierce, K.G.; Livesay, B.J.

    1995-03-01

    This work was initiated as part of the National Advanced Drilling and Excavation Technologies (NADET) Program. It is being performed through joint finding from the Department of Energy Geothermal Division and the Natural Gas Technology Branch, Morgantown Energy Technology Center. Interest in advanced drilling systems is high. The Geothermal Division of the Department of Energy has initiated a multi-year effort in the development of advanced drilling systems; the National Research Council completed a study of drilling and excavation technologies last year; and the MIT Energy Laboratory recently submitted a proposal for a national initiative in advanced drilling and excavation research. The primary reasons for this interest are financial. Worldwide expenditures on oil and gas drilling approach $75 billion per year. Also, drilling and well completion account for 25% to 50% of the cost of producing electricity from geothermal energy. There is incentive to search for methods to reduce the cost of drilling. Work on ideas to improve or replace rotary drilling technology dates back at least to the 1930`s. There was a significant amount of work in this area in the 1960`s and 1970`s; and there has been some continued effort through the 1980`s. Undoubtedly there are concepts for advanced drilling systems that have yet to be studied; however, it is almost certain that new efforts to initiate work on advanced drilling systems will build on an idea or a variation of an idea that has already been investigated. Therefore, a review of previous efforts coupled with a characterization of viable advanced drilling systems and the current state of technology as it applies to those systems provide the basis for the current study of advanced drilling.

  8. Predicting evolutionary dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balazsi, Gabor

    We developed an ordinary differential equation-based model to predict the evolutionary dynamics of yeast cells carrying a synthetic gene circuit. The predicted aspects included the speed at which the ancestral genotype disappears from the population; as well as the types of mutant alleles that establish in each environmental condition. We validated these predictions by experimental evolution. The agreement between our predictions and experimental findings suggests that cellular and population fitness landscapes can be useful to predict short-term evolution.

  9. Predictive Technologies: Can Smart Tools Augment the Brain's Predictive Abilities?

    PubMed Central

    Pezzulo, Giovanni; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Gaggioli, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The ability of “looking into the future”—namely, the capacity of anticipating future states of the environment or of the body—represents a fundamental function of human (and animal) brains. A goalkeeper who tries to guess the ball's direction; a chess player who attempts to anticipate the opponent's next move; or a man-in-love who tries to calculate what are the chances of her saying yes—in all these cases, people are simulating possible future states of the world, in order to maximize the success of their decisions or actions. Research in neuroscience is showing that our ability to predict the behavior of physical or social phenomena is largely dependent on the brain's ability to integrate current and past information to generate (probabilistic) simulations of the future. But could predictive processing be augmented using advanced technologies? In this contribution, we discuss how computational technologies may be used to support, facilitate or enhance the prediction of future events, by considering exemplificative scenarios across different domains, from simpler sensorimotor decisions to more complex cognitive tasks. We also examine the key scientific and technical challenges that must be faced to turn this vision into reality. PMID:27199648

  10. Predictive Technologies: Can Smart Tools Augment the Brain's Predictive Abilities?

    PubMed

    Pezzulo, Giovanni; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Gaggioli, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The ability of "looking into the future"-namely, the capacity of anticipating future states of the environment or of the body-represents a fundamental function of human (and animal) brains. A goalkeeper who tries to guess the ball's direction; a chess player who attempts to anticipate the opponent's next move; or a man-in-love who tries to calculate what are the chances of her saying yes-in all these cases, people are simulating possible future states of the world, in order to maximize the success of their decisions or actions. Research in neuroscience is showing that our ability to predict the behavior of physical or social phenomena is largely dependent on the brain's ability to integrate current and past information to generate (probabilistic) simulations of the future. But could predictive processing be augmented using advanced technologies? In this contribution, we discuss how computational technologies may be used to support, facilitate or enhance the prediction of future events, by considering exemplificative scenarios across different domains, from simpler sensorimotor decisions to more complex cognitive tasks. We also examine the key scientific and technical challenges that must be faced to turn this vision into reality. PMID:27199648

  11. THE ADVANCED CHEMISTRY BASINS PROJECT

    SciTech Connect

    William Goddard; Peter Meulbroek; Yongchun Tang; Lawrence Cathles III

    2004-04-05

    In the next decades, oil exploration by majors and independents will increasingly be in remote, inaccessible areas, or in areas where there has been extensive shallow exploration but deeper exploration potential may remain; areas where the collection of data is expensive, difficult, or even impossible, and where the most efficient use of existing data can drive the economics of the target. The ability to read hydrocarbon chemistry in terms of subsurface migration processes by relating it to the evolution of the basin and fluid migration is perhaps the single technological capability that could most improve our ability to explore effectively because it would allow us to use a vast store of existing or easily collected chemical data to determine the major migration pathways in a basin and to determine if there is deep exploration potential. To this end a the DOE funded a joint effort between California Institute of Technology, Cornell University, and GeoGroup Inc. to assemble a representative set of maturity and maturation kinetic models and develop an advanced basin model able to predict the chemistry of hydrocarbons in a basin from this input data. The four year project is now completed and has produced set of public domain maturity indicator and maturation kinetic data set, an oil chemistry and flash calculation tool operable under Excel, and a user friendly, graphically intuitive basin model that uses this data and flash tool, operates on a PC, and simulates hydrocarbon generation and migration and the chemical changes that can occur during migration (such as phase separation and gas washing). The DOE Advanced Chemistry Basin Model includes a number of new methods that represent advances over current technology. The model is built around the concept of handling arbitrarily detailed chemical composition of fluids in a robust finite-element 2-D grid. There are three themes on which the model focuses: chemical kinetic and equilibrium reaction parameters, chemical

  12. Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2011-01-01

    Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

  13. Ceramic Technology for Advanced Heat Engines Project

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-08-01

    The Ceramic Technology For Advanced Heat Engines Project was developed by the Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Systems (OTS) in Conservation and Renewable Energy. This project, part of the OTS's Advanced Materials Development Program, was developed to meet the ceramic technology requirements of the OTS's automotive technology programs. Significant accomplishments in fabricating ceramic components for the Department of Energy (DOE), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and Department of Defense (DOD) advanced heat engine programs have provided evidence that the operation of ceramic parts in high-temperature engine environments is feasible. However, these programs have also demonstrated that additional research is needed in materials and processing development, design methodology, and data base and life prediction before industry will have a sufficient technology base from which to produce reliable cost-effective ceramic engine components commercially. An assessment of needs was completed, and a five year project plan was developed with extensive input from private industry. The objective of the project is to develop the industrial technology base required for reliable ceramics for application in advanced automotive heat engines. The project approach includes determining the mechanisms controlling reliability, improving processes for fabricating existing ceramics, developing new materials with increased reliability, and testing these materials in simulated engine environments to confirm reliability. Although this is a generic materials project, the focus is on structural ceramics for advanced gas turbine and diesel engines, ceramic hearings and attachments, and ceramic coatings for thermal barrier and wear applications in these engines.

  14. A direct advance on advance directives.

    PubMed

    Shaw, David

    2012-06-01

    Advance directives (ADs), which are also sometimes referred to as 'living wills', are statements made by a person that indicate what treatment she should not be given in the event that she is not competent to consent or refuse at the future moment in question. As such, ADs provide a way for patients to make decisions in advance about what treatments they do not want to receive, without doctors having to find proxy decision-makers or having recourse to the doctrine of necessity. While patients can request particular treatments in an AD, only refusals are binding. This paper will examine whether ADs safeguard the autonomy and best interests of the incompetent patient, and whether legislating for the use of ADs is justified, using the specific context of the legal situation in the United Kingdom to illustrate the debate. The issue of whether the law should permit ADs is itself dependent on the issue of whether ADs are ethically justified; thus we must answer a normative question in order to answer the legislative one. It emerges that ADs suffer from two major problems, one related to autonomy and one to consent. First, ADs' emphasis on precedent autonomy effectively sentences some people who want to live to death. Second, many ADs might not meet the standard criteria for informed refusal of treatment, because they fail on the crucial criterion of sufficient information. Ultimately, it transpires that ADs are typically only appropriate for patients who temporarily lose physical or mental capacity. PMID:21133977

  15. Recruit and ADVANCE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosser, Sue V.

    2007-04-01

    Beginning in 2001, the National Science Foundation launched the ADVANCE Initiative, which has now awarded more than 70 million to some thirty institutions for transformations to advance women. Results of studies on how to attract and retain women students and faculty underpinned our ADVANCE Institutional Transformation grant funded by the NSF for 3.7 million for five years, beginning in 2001. As co-principal investigator on this grant, I insured that this research informed the five major threads of the grant: 1) Four termed ADVANCE professors to mentor junior women faculty in each college; 2) Collection of MIT-Report-like data indicators to assess whether advancement of women really occurs during and after the institutional transformation undertaken through ADVANCE; 3) Family-friendly policies and practices to stop the tenure clock and provide active service, modified duties, lactation stations and day care; 4) Mini-retreats to facilitate access for tenure-track women faculty to male decision-makers and administrators for informal conversations and discussion on topics important to women faculty; 5) Removal of subtle gender, racial, and other biases in promotion and tenure. The dynamic changes resulting from the grant in quality of mentoring, new understanding of promotion and tenure, numbers of women retained and given endowed chairs, and emergence of new family friendly policies gave me hope for genuine diversification of leadership in science and technology. As the grant funding ends, the absence of NSF prestige and monitoring, coupled with a change in academic leadership at the top, provide new challenges for institutionalization, recruitment, and advancement of women into leadership positions in science and engineering.

  16. Effects of Moist Convection on Hurricane Predictability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Fuqing; Sippel, Jason A.

    2008-01-01

    This study exemplifies inherent uncertainties in deterministic prediction of hurricane formation and intensity. Such uncertainties could ultimately limit the predictability of hurricanes at all time scales. In particular, this study highlights the predictability limit due to the effects on moist convection of initial-condition errors with amplitudes far smaller than those of any observation or analysis system. Not only can small and arguably unobservable differences in the initial conditions result in different routes to tropical cyclogenesis, but they can also determine whether or not a tropical disturbance will significantly