Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Emily B.; Zavodsky, Bradley T; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Elmer, Nicholas J.

2013-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Formation and Structure Change in TCS-08

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

cyclones often transition to a fast-moving and rapidly- developing extratropical cyclone that may contain gale-, storm -, or hurricane-force winds... storm begins the process of extratropical transition have revealed the role of vertical wind shear in defining structural variations related to the...horizontal wind radii as the storm starts the process of extratropical transition. Elsberry et al. (2011) have extended the analysis of the

Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Hierarchical Multiscale Interactions During the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Nargis(2008)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W. K.; Atlas, R.

2010-01-01

Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence.

Advanced Satellite-Derived Wind Observations, Assimilation, and Targeting Strategies during TCS-08 for Developing Improved Operational Analysis and Prediction of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

influences on TC structure evolve up to landfall or extratropical transition. In particular, winds derived from geostationary satellites have been shown... extratropical transition, it is clear that a dedicated research effort is needed to optimize the satellite data processing strategies, assimilation...and applications to better understand the behavior of the near- storm environmental flow fields during these evolutionary TC stages. To our knowledge

Advanced Satellite-Derived Wind Observations, Assimilation, and Targeting Strategies during TCS-08 for Developing Improved Operational Analysis and Prediction of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

influences on TC structure evolve up to landfall or extratropical transition. In particular, winds derived from geostationary satellites have been...and extratropical transition, it is clear that a dedicated research effort is needed to optimize the satellite data processing strategies...assimilation, and applications to better understand the behavior of the near- storm environmental flow fields during these evolutionary TC stages. To our

DMS cyclone separation processes for optimization of plastic wastes recycling and their implications.

PubMed

Gent, Malcolm Richard; Menendez, Mario; Toraño, Javier; Torno, Susana

2011-06-01

It is demonstrated that substantial reductions in plastics presently disposed of in landfills can be achieved by cyclone density media separation (DMS). In comparison with the size fraction of plastics presently processed by industrial density separations (generally 6.4 to 9.5 mm), cyclone DMS methods are demonstrated to effectively process a substantially greater range of particle sizes (from 0.5 up to 120 mm). The purities of plastic products and recoveries obtained with a single stage separation using a cylindrical cyclone are shown to attain virtually 100% purity and recoveries >99% for high-density fractions and >98% purity and recoveries were obtained for low-density products. Four alternative schemas of multi-stage separations are presented and analyzed as proposed methods to obtain total low- and high-density plastics fraction recoveries while maintaining near 100% purities. The results of preliminary tests of two of these show that the potential for processing product purities and recoveries >99.98% of both density fractions are indicated. A preliminary economic comparison of capital costs of DMS systems suggests cyclone DMS methods to be comparable with other DMS processes even if the high volume capacity for recycling operations of these is not optimized.

Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaounas, Emmanouil; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Gray, Suzanne L.; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal

2018-04-01

In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones' heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis data, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cyclone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterranean rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones' centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-h accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and processes that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set perspectives for a deeper analysis of the favourable atmospheric conditions that yield high impact weather.

An important role of the moisture supply from the Kuroshio Current/Kuroshio Extension in the rapid development of an explosive cyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, H.; Kawamura, R.; Kato, M.; Shinoda, T.

2014-12-01

We investigated how the moisture supply from the Kuroshio Current/Kuroshio Extension affects the rapid intensification of an explosive cyclone using a couple atmosphere-ocean non-hydrostatic model, CReSS-NHOES. The Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS) and the Non-Hydrostatic Ocean model for the Earth Simulator (NHOES) have been developed by the Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center of Nagoya University and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, respectively. We performed a numerical simulation of an extratropical cyclone migrating along the southern periphery of the Kuroshio Current on January 14, 2013, that developed most rapidly in recent years in the vicinity of Japan. The evolutions of surface fronts related to the cyclone simulated by the CReSS-NHOES closely resemble Shapiro-Keyser model. In the lower troposphere, the cyclone's bent-back front and the associated frontal T-bone structure become evident with the cyclone development. Cold Conveyor Belt (CCB) is also well organized over the northern part of the cyclone. During its developing stage, since the CCB dominates just over the Kuroshio Current/Kuroshio Extension, a large amount of moisture is efficiently supplied from the warm current into the CCB. The vapor evaporated from the underlying warm current is transported into the bent-back front by the CCB and converges horizontally in the vicinity of the front. As a result, strong diabatic heating arises over the corresponding moisture convergence area in that vicinity, indicating that the abundant moisture due to the warm current plays a vital role in rapid development of the cyclone through latent heat release processes. Both processes of the moisture transport from the warm current into the cyclone system via the CCB and of the latent heat release around the bent-back front are also confirmed by trajectory analyses. The rapid SLP decrease of the cyclone center can in turn increase the moisture supply from the warm current through enhancement of the CCB. We anticipate that such a feedback process plays a key role in the rapid intensification of the cyclone highlighted in this study.

FORMAT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RECORDS ("TCVITALS")

Science.gov Websites

FORMAT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE VITAL STATISTICS RECORDS ("TCVITALS") 8-16-2007 CHARACTER(S - These appear only in records that have been processed by the NCEP tropical cyclone quality control program SYNDAT_QCTROPCY. BOLDFACE - These appear only in NHC records. 1 - Prior to 1999, report date was

Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensify Change Using Data Mining

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tang, Jiang

2010-01-01

Tropical cyclones (TC), especially when their intensity reaches hurricane scale, can become a costly natural hazard. Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone intensity is very difficult because of inadequate observations on TC structures, poor understanding of physical processes, coarse model resolution and inaccurate initial conditions, etc. This…

The Life Cycles of Intense Cyclonic and Anticyclonic Circulation Systems Observed over Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Phillip J.

1996-01-01

This report presents a summary of research accomplished over the past four years under the sponsorship of NASA grant #NAG8-915. Building on previously funded NASA grants, this part of the project focused on the following specific goals relative to cyclone/anticyclone systems: the jet streak link between block formation and upstream cyclone activity; the role of northward warm air advection in block formation; the importance of cooperative participation of several forcing mechanisms during explosive cyclone development; and the significance of the vertical distribution of forcing processes during cyclone/anticyclone development.

Advanced Satellite-Derived Wind Observations, Assimilation, and Targeting Strategies during TCS-08 for Developing Improved Operational Analysis and Prediction of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

TC structure evolve up to landfall or extratropical transition. In particular, winds derived from geostationary satellites have been shown to be an... extratropical transition, it is clear that a dedicated research effort is needed to optimize the satellite data processing strategies, assimilation, and...applications to better understand the behavior of the near- storm environmental flow fields during these evolutionary TC stages. To our knowledge, this

Performance and Characteristics of a Cyclone Gasifier for Gasification of Sawdust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azman Miskam, Muhamad; Zainal, Z. A.; Idroas, M. Y.

The performance and characteristics of a cyclone gasifier for gasification of sawdust has been studied and evaluated. The system applied a technique to gasify sawdust through the concept of cyclonic motion driven by air injected at atmospheric pressure. This study covers the results obtained for gasification of ground sawdust from local furniture industries with size distribution ranging from 0.25 to 1 mm. It was found that the typical wall temperature for initiating stable gasification process was about 400°C. The heating value of producer gas was about 3.9 MJ m-3 that is sufficient for stable combustion in a dual-fuel engine generator. The highest thermal output from the cyclone gasifier was 57.35 kWT. The highest value of mass conversion efficiency and enthalpy balance were 60 and 98.7%, respectively. The highest efficiency of the cyclone gasifier obtained was 73.4% and this compares well with other researchers. The study has identified the optimum operational condition for gasifying sawdust in a cyclone gasifier and made conclusions as to how the steady gasification process can be achieved.

The Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Emily; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary; Elmer, Nicholas

2013-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Folmer, M. J.; Jedlovec, G. J.

2014-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), 32-km North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) interpolated to a 12-km grid, and 13-km Rapid Refresh analyses.

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedlovec, G. J.

2014-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

An A-Train Climatology of Extratropical Cyclone Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Booth, James F.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Kahn, Brian; Bauer, Mike

2016-01-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the main purveyors of precipitation in the mid-latitudes, especially in winter, and have a significant radiative impact through the clouds they generate. However, general circulation models (GCMs) have trouble representing precipitation and clouds in ETCs, and this might partly explain why current GCMs disagree on to the evolution of these systems in a warming climate. Collectively, the A-train observations of MODIS, CloudSat, CALIPSO, AIRS and AMSR-E have given us a unique perspective on ETCs: over the past 10 years these observations have allowed us to construct a climatology of clouds and precipitation associated with these storms. This has proved very useful for model evaluation as well in studies aimed at improving understanding of moist processes in these dynamically active conditions. Using the A-train observational suite and an objective cyclone and front identification algorithm we have constructed cyclone centric datasets that consist of an observation-based characterization of clouds and precipitation in ETCs and their sensitivity to large scale environments. In this presentation, we will summarize the advances in our knowledge of the climatological properties of cloud and precipitation in ETCs acquired with this unique dataset. In particular, we will present what we have learned about southern ocean ETCs, for which the A-train observations have filled a gap in this data sparse region. In addition, CloudSat and CALIPSO have for the first time provided information on the vertical distribution of clouds in ETCs and across warm and cold fronts. We will also discuss how these observations have helped identify key areas for improvement in moist processes in recent GCMs. Recently, we have begun to explore the interaction between aerosol and cloud cover in ETCs using MODIS, CloudSat and CALIPSO. We will show how aerosols are climatologically distributed within northern hemisphere ETCs, and how this relates to cloud cover.

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Laing, Arlene

2012-01-01

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively-coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data and performing simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (I) wave deepening associated with wave shortening and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with bOlll1dary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Laing, Arlene

2012-01-01

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data, including NCEP reanalysis data and METEOSAT 7 IR satellite imagery, and performing numerical simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no sub-grid cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and thus the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres, leading to the formation of the TCs. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (1) wave deepening (intensification) associated with a reduction in wavelength and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with boundary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

Suomi NPP Satellite Views of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen in the Northern Indian Ocean

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

The first tropical cyclone in the Northern Indian Ocean this season has been getting better organized as seen in NASA satellite imagery. Tropical Cyclone Mahasen is projected to track north through the Bay of Bengal and make landfall later this week. On May 13, NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured various night-time and day-time imagery that showed Mesospheric Gravity Waves, lightning, and heavy rainfall in false-colored imagery. For more information and updates on Cyclone Mahasen, visit NASA's Hurricane page at www.nasa.gov/hurricane. Image Credit: UWM-CIMSS/William Straka III/NASA/NOAA Text Credit: NASA Goddard/Rob Gutro NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Tropical Cyclone Madi Approaching India

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-12-09

Tropical Cyclone Madi approaching India. Acquired by Aqua/MODIS on 12/07/2013 at 07:55 UTC. Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Effect of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on Atmospheric Condition and Distribution of Rainfall in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lumbangaol, A.; Serhalawan, Y. R.; Endarwin

2017-12-01

Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone is an atmospheric phenomenon that has claimed many lives in the Philippines. This super-typhoon cyclone grows in the Western Pacific Ocean, North of Papua. With the area directly contiguous to the trajectory of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone growth, it is necessary to study about the growth activity of this tropical cyclones in Indonesia, especially in 3 different areas, namely Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong. This study was able to determine the impact of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on atmospheric dynamics and rainfall growth distribution based on the stages of tropical cyclone development. The data used in this study include Himawari-8 IR channel satellite data to see the development stage and movement track of Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten, rainfall data from TRMM 3B42RT satellite product to know the rain distribution in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong, and reanalysis data from ECMWF such as wind direction and speed, vertical velocity, and relative vorticity to determine atmospheric conditions at the time of development of the Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone. The results of data analysis processed using GrADS application showed the development stage of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone has effect of changes in atmospheric dynamics condition and wind direction pattern. In addition, tropical cyclones also contribute to very light to moderate scale intensity during the cycle period of tropical cyclone development in all three regions.

Clusters of cyclones encircling Jupiter's poles.

PubMed

Adriani, A; Mura, A; Orton, G; Hansen, C; Altieri, F; Moriconi, M L; Rogers, J; Eichstädt, G; Momary, T; Ingersoll, A P; Filacchione, G; Sindoni, G; Tabataba-Vakili, F; Dinelli, B M; Fabiano, F; Bolton, S J; Connerney, J E P; Atreya, S K; Lunine, J I; Tosi, F; Migliorini, A; Grassi, D; Piccioni, G; Noschese, R; Cicchetti, A; Plainaki, C; Olivieri, A; O'Neill, M E; Turrini, D; Stefani, S; Sordini, R; Amoroso, M

2018-03-07

The familiar axisymmetric zones and belts that characterize Jupiter's weather system at lower latitudes give way to pervasive cyclonic activity at higher latitudes. Two-dimensional turbulence in combination with the Coriolis β-effect (that is, the large meridionally varying Coriolis force on the giant planets of the Solar System) produces alternating zonal flows. The zonal flows weaken with rising latitude so that a transition between equatorial jets and polar turbulence on Jupiter can occur. Simulations with shallow-water models of giant planets support this transition by producing both alternating flows near the equator and circumpolar cyclones near the poles. Jovian polar regions are not visible from Earth owing to Jupiter's low axial tilt, and were poorly characterized by previous missions because the trajectories of these missions did not venture far from Jupiter's equatorial plane. Here we report that visible and infrared images obtained from above each pole by the Juno spacecraft during its first five orbits reveal persistent polygonal patterns of large cyclones. In the north, eight circumpolar cyclones are observed about a single polar cyclone; in the south, one polar cyclone is encircled by five circumpolar cyclones. Cyclonic circulation is established via time-lapse imagery obtained over intervals ranging from 20 minutes to 4 hours. Although migration of cyclones towards the pole might be expected as a consequence of the Coriolis β-effect, by which cyclonic vortices naturally drift towards the rotational pole, the configuration of the cyclones is without precedent on other planets (including Saturn's polar hexagonal features). The manner in which the cyclones persist without merging and the process by which they evolve to their current configuration are unknown.

Ocean barrier layers' effect on tropical cyclone intensification.

PubMed

Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Leung, L Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

2012-09-04

Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are "quasi-permanent" features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

Ocean Barrier Layers’ Effect on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.

2012-09-04

Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are 'quasi-permanent' features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropicalmore » cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.« less

A View of Hurricane Katrina with Early 2lSt Century Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Xin; Li, J.-L.; Suarez, M. J.; Tompkins, A. M.; Waliser, D. E.; Rienecker, M. M.; Bacmeister, J.; Jiang, J.; Wu, H.-T.; Tassone, C. M.

2006-01-01

Recent advances in space-borne observations and numerical weather prediction models provide new opportunities for improving hurricane forecasts. In this study, state-of-the-art satellite observations are used to document the evolution of one of the most devastating tropical cyclones ever to hit the United States: Hurricane Katrina. The ECMWF and NASA global high-resolution forecasts, the latter being run in experimental mode, are compared with satellite observations, with a focus on precipitation and cloud processes. Future directions on modeling and observations are briefly discussed.

Clusters of cyclones encircling Jupiter’s poles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adriani, A.; Mura, A.; Orton, G.; Hansen, C.; Altieri, F.; Moriconi, M. L.; Rogers, J.; Eichstädt, G.; Momary, T.; Ingersoll, A. P.; Filacchione, G.; Sindoni, G.; Tabataba-Vakili, F.; Dinelli, B. M.; Fabiano, F.; Bolton, S. J.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Atreya, S. K.; Lunine, J. I.; Tosi, F.; Migliorini, A.; Grassi, D.; Piccioni, G.; Noschese, R.; Cicchetti, A.; Plainaki, C.; Olivieri, A.; O’Neill, M. E.; Turrini, D.; Stefani, S.; Sordini, R.; Amoroso, M.

2018-03-01

The familiar axisymmetric zones and belts that characterize Jupiter’s weather system at lower latitudes give way to pervasive cyclonic activity at higher latitudes. Two-dimensional turbulence in combination with the Coriolis β-effect (that is, the large meridionally varying Coriolis force on the giant planets of the Solar System) produces alternating zonal flows. The zonal flows weaken with rising latitude so that a transition between equatorial jets and polar turbulence on Jupiter can occur. Simulations with shallow-water models of giant planets support this transition by producing both alternating flows near the equator and circumpolar cyclones near the poles. Jovian polar regions are not visible from Earth owing to Jupiter’s low axial tilt, and were poorly characterized by previous missions because the trajectories of these missions did not venture far from Jupiter’s equatorial plane. Here we report that visible and infrared images obtained from above each pole by the Juno spacecraft during its first five orbits reveal persistent polygonal patterns of large cyclones. In the north, eight circumpolar cyclones are observed about a single polar cyclone; in the south, one polar cyclone is encircled by five circumpolar cyclones. Cyclonic circulation is established via time-lapse imagery obtained over intervals ranging from 20 minutes to 4 hours. Although migration of cyclones towards the pole might be expected as a consequence of the Coriolis β-effect, by which cyclonic vortices naturally drift towards the rotational pole, the configuration of the cyclones is without precedent on other planets (including Saturn’s polar hexagonal features). The manner in which the cyclones persist without merging and the process by which they evolve to their current configuration are unknown.

Do Tropical Cyclones Shape Shorebird Habitat Patterns? Biogeoclimatology of Snowy Plovers in Florida

PubMed Central

Convertino, Matteo; Elsner, James B.; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Kiker, Gregory A.; Martinez, Christopher J.; Fischer, Richard A.; Linkov, Igor

2011-01-01

Background The Gulf coastal ecosystems in Florida are foci of the highest species richness of imperiled shoreline dependent birds in the USA. However environmental processes that affect their macroecological patterns, like occupancy and abundance, are not well unraveled. In Florida the Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) is resident along northern and western white sandy estuarine/ocean beaches and is considered a state-threatened species. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we show that favorable nesting areas along the Florida Gulf coastline are located in regions impacted relatively more frequently by tropical cyclones. The odds of Snowy Plover nesting in these areas during the spring following a tropical cyclone impact are seven times higher compared to the odds during the spring following a season without a cyclone. The only intensity of a tropical cyclone does not appear to be a significant factor affecting breeding populations. Conclusions/Significance Nevertheless a future climate scenario featuring fewer, but more extreme cyclones could result in a decrease in the breeding Snowy Plover population and its breeding range. This is because the spatio-temporal frequency of cyclone events was found to significantly affect nest abundance. Due to the similar geographic range and habitat suitability, and no decrease in nest abundance of other shorebirds in Florida after the cyclone season, our results suggest a common bioclimatic feedback between shorebird abundance and tropical cyclones in breeding areas which are affected by cyclones. PMID:21264268

Numerical model-based diagnostic study of the rapid development phase of the Presidents' Day cyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.; Uccellini, Louis W.; Brill, Keith F.

1988-01-01

A mesoscale model simulation of the Presidents' Day cyclone at 1200 GMT 18 February 1979 is presented which captures the upper-tropospheric intrusion of stratospheric air upstream of the East Coast and subsequent development of the surface cyclone. The model simulation is then used to examine the descent of the stratospheric air mass and the interaction of this air mass with a lower-tropospheric potential vorticity maximum associated with an inverted trough and coastal front along the East Coast. The model is also used to examine the processes that contribute to the rapid decrease of sea-level pressure and increase in lower-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity during the explosive development phase of the cyclone.

Advances in understanding and parameterization of small-scale physical processes in the marine Arctic climate system: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vihma, T.; Pirazzini, R.; Fer, I.; Renfrew, I. A.; Sedlar, J.; Tjernström, M.; Lüpkes, C.; Nygård, T.; Notz, D.; Weiss, J.; Marsan, D.; Cheng, B.; Birnbaum, G.; Gerland, S.; Chechin, D.; Gascard, J. C.

2014-09-01

The Arctic climate system includes numerous highly interactive small-scale physical processes in the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. During and since the International Polar Year 2007-2009, significant advances have been made in understanding these processes. Here, these recent advances are reviewed, synthesized, and discussed. In atmospheric physics, the primary advances have been in cloud physics, radiative transfer, mesoscale cyclones, coastal, and fjordic processes as well as in boundary layer processes and surface fluxes. In sea ice and its snow cover, advances have been made in understanding of the surface albedo and its relationships with snow properties, the internal structure of sea ice, the heat and salt transfer in ice, the formation of superimposed ice and snow ice, and the small-scale dynamics of sea ice. For the ocean, significant advances have been related to exchange processes at the ice-ocean interface, diapycnal mixing, double-diffusive convection, tidal currents and diurnal resonance. Despite this recent progress, some of these small-scale physical processes are still not sufficiently understood: these include wave-turbulence interactions in the atmosphere and ocean, the exchange of heat and salt at the ice-ocean interface, and the mechanical weakening of sea ice. Many other processes are reasonably well understood as stand-alone processes but the challenge is to understand their interactions with and impacts and feedbacks on other processes. Uncertainty in the parameterization of small-scale processes continues to be among the greatest challenges facing climate modelling, particularly in high latitudes. Further improvements in parameterization require new year-round field campaigns on the Arctic sea ice, closely combined with satellite remote sensing studies and numerical model experiments.

Advances in understanding and parameterization of small-scale physical processes in the marine Arctic climate system: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vihma, T.; Pirazzini, R.; Renfrew, I. A.; Sedlar, J.; Tjernström, M.; Nygård, T.; Fer, I.; Lüpkes, C.; Notz, D.; Weiss, J.; Marsan, D.; Cheng, B.; Birnbaum, G.; Gerland, S.; Chechin, D.; Gascard, J. C.

2013-12-01

The Arctic climate system includes numerous highly interactive small-scale physical processes in the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. During and since the International Polar Year 2007-2008, significant advances have been made in understanding these processes. Here these advances are reviewed, synthesized and discussed. In atmospheric physics, the primary advances have been in cloud physics, radiative transfer, mesoscale cyclones, coastal and fjordic processes, as well as in boundary-layer processes and surface fluxes. In sea ice and its snow cover, advances have been made in understanding of the surface albedo and its relationships with snow properties, the internal structure of sea ice, the heat and salt transfer in ice, the formation of super-imposed ice and snow ice, and the small-scale dynamics of sea ice. In the ocean, significant advances have been related to exchange processes at the ice-ocean interface, diapycnal mixing, tidal currents and diurnal resonance. Despite this recent progress, some of these small-scale physical processes are still not sufficiently understood: these include wave-turbulence interactions in the atmosphere and ocean, the exchange of heat and salt at the ice-ocean interface, and the mechanical weakening of sea ice. Many other processes are reasonably well understood as stand-alone processes but challenge is to understand their interactions with, and impacts and feedbacks on, other processes. Uncertainty in the parameterization of small-scale processes continues to be among the largest challenges facing climate modeling, and nowhere is this more true than in the Arctic. Further improvements in parameterization require new year-round field campaigns on the Arctic sea ice, closely combined with satellite remote sensing studies and numerical model experiments.

Synoptic and climatological aspects of extra-tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.

2010-09-01

Mid-latitude cyclones are highly complex dynamical features embedded in the general atmospheric circulation of the extra-tropics. Although the basic mechanisms leading to the formation of cyclones are commonly understood, the specific conditions and physical reasons triggering extreme, partly explosive development, are still under investigation. This includes also the identification of processes which might modulate the frequency and intensity of cyclone systems on time scales from days to centennials. This overview presentation will thus focus on three main topics: Firstly, the dynamic-synoptic structures of cyclones, the possibility to objectively identify cyclones and wind storms, and actual statistical properties of cyclone occurrence under recent climate conditions are addressed. In a second part, aspects of the interannual variability and its causing mechanisms are related to the seasonal predictability of extreme cyclones producing severe storm events. Extending the time frame will mean to deduce information on decadal or even centennial time periods. Thus, actual work to decadal as well as climatological variability and changes will be presented. In the last part of the talk focus will be laid on potential socio-economical impacts of changed cyclone occurrence. By means of global and regional climate modeling, future damages in terms of insured losses will be investigated and measures of uncertainty estimated from a multi-model ensemble analysis will be presented.

NASA Sees First Land-falling Tropical Cyclone in Yemen

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

On Nov. 3, 2015 at 07:20 UTC (2:20 a.m. EDT) the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image of Tropical Cyclone Chapala over Yemen. Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Numerical Evaluation of Storm Surge Indices for Public Advisory Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bass, B.; Bedient, P. B.; Dawson, C.; Proft, J.

2016-12-01

After the devastating hurricane season of 2005, shortcomings with the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale's (SSHS) ability to characterize a tropical cyclones potential to generate storm surge became widely apparent. As a result, several alternative surge indices were proposed to replace the SSHS, including Powell and Reinhold's Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) factor, Kantha's Hurricane Surge Index (HSI), and Irish and Resio's Surge Scale (SS). Of the previous, the IKE factor is the only surge index to-date that truly captures a tropical cyclones integrated intensity, size, and wind field distribution. However, since the IKE factor was proposed in 2007, an accurate assessment of this surge index has not been performed. This study provides the first quantitative evaluation of the IKEs ability to serve as a predictor of a tropical cyclones potential surge impacts as compared to other alternative surge indices. Using the tightly coupled ADvanced CIRCulation and Simulating WAves Nearshore models, the surge and wave responses of Hurricane Ike (2008) and 78 synthetic tropical cyclones were evaluated against the SSHS, IKE, HSI and SS. Results along the upper TX coast of the Gulf of Mexico demonstrate that the HSI performs best in capturing the peak surge response of a tropical cyclone, while the IKE accounting for winds greater than tropical storm intensity (IKETS) provides the most accurate estimate of a tropical cyclones regional surge impacts. These results demonstrate that the appropriate selection of a surge index ultimately depends on what information is of interest to be conveyed to the public and/or scientific community.

Process Study of Oceanic Responses to Typhoons Using Arrays of EM-APEX Floats and Moorings

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

maximum potential intensity, structure , energy, trajectory, and dynamic evolution. The most energetic oceanic responses to tropical cyclone forcing are...during tropical cyclone passage will aid understanding of storm dynamics and structure . The ocean’s recovery after tropical cyclone passage depends...days). The wake was advected hundreds of kilometers from the storm track by a pre- existing mesoscale eddy. Its thermal structure could not be

Sensitivity of cyclone tracks to the initial moisture distribution: A moist potential vorticity perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Zuohao; Zhang, Da-Lin

2005-11-01

In this study, the characteristics of moist potential vorticity (MPV) in the vicinity of a surface cyclone center and their physical processes are investigated. A prognostic equation of surface absolute vorticity is then used to examine the relationship between the cyclone tracks and negative MPV (NMPV) using numerical simulations of the life cycle of an extratropical cyclone. It is shown that the MPV approach developed herein, i.e., by tracing the peak NMPV, can be used to help trace surface cyclones during their development and mature stages. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate the impact of different initial moisture fields on the effectiveness of the MPV approach. It is found that the lifetime of NMPV depends mainly on the initial moisture field, the magnitude of condensational heating, and the advection of NMPV. When NMPV moves into a saturated environment at or near a cyclone center, it can trace better the evolution of the surface cyclone due to the conservative property of MPV. It is also shown that the NMPV generation is closely associated with the coupling of large potential temperature and moisture gradients as a result of frontogenesis processes. Analyses indicate that condensation, confluence and tilting play important but different roles in determining the NMPV generation. NMPV is generated mainly through the changes in the strength of baroclinicity and in the direction of the moisture gradient due to moist and/or dry air mass intrusion into the baroclinic zone.

Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports - Naval Oceanography Portal

Science.gov Websites

section Advanced Search... Sections Home Time Earth Orientation Astronomy Meteorology Oceanography Ice You Center Norfolk new site for Atlantic Tropical Warnings Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command, 1100

The Intense Arctic Cyclone of Early August 2012: A Dynamically Driven Cyclogenesis Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Turchioe, A.; Adamchcik, E.

2013-12-01

A series of surface cyclones formed along an anomalously strong northeast-southwest oriented baroclinic zone over north-central Russia on 1-3 August 2012. These cyclones moved northeastward, intensified slowly, and crossed the coast of Russia by 4 August. The last cyclone in the series strengthened rapidly as it moved poleward over the Arctic Ocean on 5-6 August, achieved a minimum sea level pressure of < 965 hPa by 6 August, and was arguably the most intense storm system to impact the Arctic Ocean in the modern data record going back to the International Geophysical Year in 1957-1958. The purpose of this presentation is to illustrate the structure and life cycle of this Arctic Ocean cyclone from a multiscale perspective. Anticyclonic wave breaking in the upper troposphere across Russia in late July and very early August 2012 created an anomalously strong baroclinic zone across northern Asia between 60-80°N. During 1-5 August, negative 850 hPa temperature anomalies between -2° and -4°C were found poleward of 70-75°N between 90°E and the Dateline over the Arctic Ocean while positive 850 hPa temperature anomalies of 8-9°C were found over eastern Russia near 60°N. The associated anomalously strong 850 hPa meridional temperature gradient of ~10°C (2000 km)-1 helped to sustain an anomalously strong (20-30 m s-1) 250 hPa jet along the coast of northeastern Russia. A local wind speed maximum (~50 m s-1 ) embedded in this 250 hPa jet corridor contributed to the extreme intensity of the trailing (last) surface cyclone in the series. Although the dominant surface cyclone in the series of surface cyclones intensified most rapidly over the relatively ice free Arctic Ocean, the impact of surface heat and moisture fluxes appeared to be secondary to jet-driven dynamical processes in the deepening process. Anomalously high observed 1000-500 hPa thickness values between 564-570 dam, precipitable water values between 30-40 mm, and CAPE values between 500-1000 J kg-1 in the warm sector of the developing cyclone over north-central Russia were indicative of the enhanced baroclinicity and instability in the cyclone warm sector and the ability of lower tropospheric warm-air advection to sustain deep ascent in the intensifying cyclone. The relative importance of dynamical versus thermodynamical forcing to the cyclogenesis process as well as the bulk upscale effects of the intense cyclone on the larger scale higher-latitude circulation and the distribution of sea ice will be discussed. A noteworthy aspect of the post-storm polar environment was the upscale growth of a midlevel cyclonic circulation to include most of the Arctic Ocean. The off-pole displacement of this midlevel cyclonic circulation toward northern Canada by mid-August may have contributed to the termination of the 2012 summer-long intensive heat wave over most of the continental United States.

Moist Thermodynamics of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification in High-Resolution Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, A. A.; Camargo, S. J.; Sobel, A. H.; Kim, D.; Moon, Y.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Murakami, H.; Reed, K. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Zhao, M.

2017-12-01

In recent years, climate models have improved such that high-resolution simulations are able to reproduce the climatology of tropical cyclone activity with some fidelity and show some skill in seasonal forecasting. However, biases remain in many models, motivating a better understanding of what factors control the representation of tropical cyclone activity in climate models. We explore tropical cyclogenesis and intensification processes in six high-resolution climate models from NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, and NASA, including both coupled and uncoupled configurations. Our analysis framework focuses on how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled and employs budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy. The latter allows us to quantify the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclogenesis, including surface flux feedbacks and cloud-radiative feedbacks. We track the formation and evolution of tropical cyclones in the climate model simulations and apply our analysis along the individual tracks and composited over many tropical cyclones. We use two methods of compositing: a composite over all TC track points in a given intensity range, and a composite relative to the time of lifetime maximum intensity for each storm (at the same stage in the TC life cycle).

Tropical Storm Arthur Forms

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-07-01

Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective organization of the cyclone has improved, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained wind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island earlier this morning. Low shear conditions and warm sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by 72 hours. This image was taken by GOES East at 1445Z on July 1, 2014. Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project Caption: NOAA NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

NASA/NOAA's Suomi NPP Satellite's Night-time View of Cyclone Evan

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-12-20

This night-time view of Cyclone Evan was taken from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on NASA/NOAA's Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership on Dec. 16, 2012. The rectangular bright object in the image is a lightning flash. "Because of the scan time as compared to how quickly lightning flashes, you get a nice streak in the data," said William Straka, of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who provided this image. On Dec. 17 at 0900 UTC (4 a.m. EST), Cyclone Evan had maximum sustained winds near 115 knots (132 mph/213 kph). Evan was a Category 4 cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and was battering Fiji. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA/UWM/William Straka Text Credit: NASA Goddard/Rob Gutro NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Building of tropical beach ridges, northeastern Queensland, Australia: Cyclone inundation and aeolian decoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, Toru; Nicholas, William; Brooke, Brendan; Oliver, Thomas

2016-04-01

Processes associated with tropical cyclones are thought responsible for building coarse sand beach ridges along the northeastern Queensland coast, Australia. While these ridges are expected to be geological records of the past cyclone, they question the general consensus of the aeolian genesis of sandy beach ridges. To explore the ridge-forming process, we carried out the GPR survey, auger drilling, pit excavation, grain-size analysis, and OSL dating for coarse sand beach ridges at the Cowley Beach, northeastern Queensland. The Cowley Beach is a mesotidal beach characterized by a low-tide terrace and steep beach face. Ten beach ridges are recognized along the survey transect that extends 700 m inland from the shore. 37 OSL ages are younger seawards, indicating the seaward accretion of the ridge sequence over the last 2700 years. The highest ridge is +5.1 m high above AHD (Australian Height Datum). Two GPR units are bounded by a groundwater surface at c. +1.5 m AHD. The upper unit is characterized by horizontal to hummocky reflectors punctuated by seaward dipping truncation surfaces. These reflectors in places form dome-like structure that appears to be the nucleus of a beach ridge. The shape and level (+2.5 m AHD) of the dome are similar to those of the present swash berm. The lower unit shows a sequence of reflectors that dip at an angle of present beach face. The sequence is dissected by truncation surfaces, some of which are continuous to those in the upper unit. Coarse sand mainly forms beach ridge deposits below +4.0 m AHD, while a few higher ridges have an upward fining layer composed of medium sand above +4.0 m, which is finer than aeolian ripples found on the backshore during the survey. In addition, pumice gravel horizons underlie the examined ridge crests. The sequence of seaward dipping reflectors indicates that the Cowley Beach, like other many sandy beaches, has prograded during onshore sand accretion by fairweather waves and has been eroded by storms waves. It is evident that increased water level and high waves associated with tropical cyclones are responsible for ridge building between +2.5 and +4.0 m AHD. However, astronomical tide should be critical rather than rare, intense cyclones for frequent coastal inundations up to +4.0 m AHD, just 1.5 m higher than the high-tide swash limit. The medium-grained sand layer on a few beach ridges higher than +4.0 m AHD can be accounted for by aeolian origin, but pumice gravels indicate the contribution of cyclone inundation. The building process of the ridges at Cowley Beach is thus most likely a mixture of fairweather swash and cyclone inundation modulated by tides, and aeolian processes during cyclonic and non-cyclonic conditions. For the reconstruction of the past cyclone based on these ridges, the roles of higher astronomical tides and aeolian processes should be taken into account.

Identification of a subtropical cyclone in the proximity of the Canary Islands and its analysis by numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quitián-Hernández, L.; Martín, M. L.; González-Alemán, J. J.; Santos-Muñoz, D.; Valero, F.

2016-09-01

Subtropical cyclones (STC) are low-pressure systems that share tropical and extratropical characteristics. Because of the great economic and social damage, the study of these systems has recently grown. This paper analyzes the cyclone formed in October 2014 near the Canary Islands and diagnoses such a cyclone in order to identify its correspondence to an STC category, examining its dynamical and thermal evolution. Diverse fields have been obtained from three different numerical models, and several diagnostic tools and cyclone phase space diagrams have been used. An extratropical cyclone, in its early stage, experimented a process of cut-off and isolation from the midlatitude flow. The incursion of a trough in conjunction with a low-level baroclinic zone favored the formation of the STC northwestern of the Canary Islands. Streamers of high potential vorticity linked to the cyclone favored strong winds and precipitation in the study domain. Cyclone phase space diagrams are used to complement the synoptic analysis and the satellite images of the cyclone to categorize such system. The diagrams reveal the transition from extratropical cyclone to STC remaining for several days with a subtropical structure with a quite broad action radius. The study of the mesoscale environment parameters showed an enhanced conditional instability through a deep troposphere layer. It is shown that moderate to strong vertical wind shear together with relatively warm sea surface temperature determine conditions enabling the development of long-lived convective structures.

Frequency changes of tropical cyclones during the last century recorded in a canyon of the northern Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudrass, Hermann; Machalett, Björn; Palamenghi, Luisa; Meyer, Inka

2017-04-01

Frequent cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal and landfall to the southern delta of the Ganges and Brahmaputra are well recorded in sediment cores from a canyon which deeply incises into the shelf and ends at the foreset beds of the submarine Ganges Brahmaputra delta. The large sediment supply by the two rivers during the monsoonal floods forms temporary deposits on the inner shelf, which are mobilized by waves and currents during the passage of cyclones. The resulting sand-silt-clay suspension forms high-density water masses, which plunge from the inner shelf into the shelf canyon, where they deposit graded beds evenly draping the broad canyon floor. A simple model was used to rank the historical known cyclones according to their capacity to transfer sediment from the submarine delta into the canyon. In a 362 cm-long sediment core ranging from the year 1985 to 2006, 48 graded beds can be correlated with the observed 41 cyclones. The cyclonic impact on the sediment transport has decreased by a factor of three during the last decade. The highest cyclonic impact occurred during the seventies. Compared to the sediment transfer by cyclones, the input by tidal currents and monsoonal floods is negligible. Thus cyclones are the dominating process for mobilizing and distributing sediment on the Bangladesh shelf and probably also on all shelf areas, which lie in the track of tropical cyclones.

Overview of the Field Phase of the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP)Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hood, Robbie E.; Zipser, Edward; Heymsfield, Gerald M.; Kakar, Ramesh; Halverson Jeffery; Rogers, Robert; Black, Michael

2006-01-01

The Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes experiment is sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to investigate characteristics of tropical cyclone genesis, rapid intensification and rainfall using a three-pronged approach that emphasizes satellite information, suborbital observations and numerical model simulations. Research goals include demonstration and assessment of new technology, improvements to numerical model parameterizations, and advancements in data assimilation techniques. The field phase of the experiment was based in Costa Rica during July 2005. A fully instrumented NASA ER-2 high altitude airplane was deployed with Doppler radar, passive microwave instrumentation, lightning and electric field sensors and an airborne simulator of visible and infrared satellite sensors. Other assets brought to TCSP were a low flying uninhabited aerial vehicle, and a surface-based radiosonde network. In partnership with the Intensity Forecasting Experiment of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division, two NOAA P-3 aircraft instrumented with radar, passive microwave, microphysical, and dropsonde instrumentation were also deployed to Costa Rica. The field phase of TCSP was conducted in Costa Rica to take advantage of the geographically compact tropical cyclone genesis region of the Eastern Pacific Ocean near Central America. However, the unusual 2005 hurricane season provided numerous opportunities to sample tropical cyclone development and intensification in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico as well. Development of Hurricane Dennis and Tropical Storm Gert were each investigated over several days in addition to Hurricane Emily as it was close to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 intensity. An overview of the characteristics of these storms along with the pregenesis environment of Tropical Storm Eugene in the Eastern Pacific will be presented.

Tropical Cyclone Genesis: A Dynamician's Point of View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouali, Safieddine; Leys, Jos

The paper focuses the route to the maturity of a cyclone as a twist process of the Hadley cell. The approach is qualified by a "dynamician's viewpoint" since the aerologic mechanism of the cyclone genesis is replicated without the classical tools of the meteorological fluid framework. Indeed, we introduce a pure dynamical model of a 2D vertical rotor of an airparcel to emulate the Hadley cell. Twisted by an appropriate feedback to inject geophysical forcing, the simulation displays two stretched solenoid rolls with clockwise and anticlockwise paths representing the Hadley belts wrapping the Earth. When the forcing parameter is higher, computations simulate overlapped whirlwind funnels revealing strong similarities with the structure of cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons described in the atmospheric science literature. We conjecture that ocean-atmosphere interactions separate and convert a "slice" of the Hadley rotor into a fully tropical cyclone.

The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agustín Breña-Naranjo, J.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Pozos-Estrada, Oscar; Jiménez-López, Salma A.; López-López, Marco R.

Investigating the contribution of tropical cyclones to the terrestrial water cycle can help quantify the benefits and hazards caused by the rainfall generated from this type of hydro-meteorological event. Rainfall induced by tropical cyclones can enhance both flood risk and groundwater recharge, and it is therefore important to characterise its minimum, mean and maximum contributions to a region or country's water balance. This work evaluates the rainfall contribution of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes across Mexico from 1998 to 2013 using the satellite-derived precipitation dataset TMPA 3B42. Additionally, the sensitivity of rainfall to other datasets was assessed: the national rain gauge observation network, real-time satellite rainfall and a merged product that combines rain gauges with non-calibrated space-borne rainfall measurements. The lower Baja California peninsula had the highest contribution from cyclonic rainfall in relative terms (∼40% of its total annual rainfall), whereas the contributions in the rest of the country showed a low-to-medium dependence on tropical cyclones, with mean values ranging from 0% to 20%. In quantitative terms, southern regions of Mexico can receive more than 2400 mm of cyclonic rainfall during years with significant TC activity. Moreover, (a) the number of tropical cyclones impacting Mexico has been significantly increasing since 1998, but cyclonic contributions in relative and quantitative terms have not been increasing, and (b) wind speed and rainfall intensity during cyclones are not highly correlated. Future work should evaluate the impacts of such contributions on surface and groundwater hydrological processes and connect the knowledge gaps between the magnitude of tropical cyclones, flood hazards, and economic losses.

A study on raindrop size distribution variability in before and after landfall precipitations of tropical cyclones observed over southern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janapati, Jayalakshmi; seela, Balaji Kumar; Reddy M., Venkatrami; Reddy K., Krishna; Lin, Pay-Liam; Rao T., Narayana; Liu, Chian-Yi

2017-06-01

Raindrop size distribution (RSD) characteristics in before landfall (BLF) and after landfall (ALF) of three tropical cyclones (JAL, THANE, and NILAM) induced precipitations are investigated by using a laser-based (PARticleSIze and VELocity - PARSIVEL) disdrometer at two different locations [Kadapa (14.47°N, 78.82°E) and Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E)] in semi-arid region of southern India. In both BLF and ALF precipitations of these three cyclones, convective precipitations have higher mass weighted mean diameter (Dm) and lower normalized intercept parameter (log10Nw) values than stratiform precipitations. The radar reflectivity (Z) and rain rate (R) relations (Z=A*Rb) showed distinct variations in BLF and ALF precipitations of three cyclones. BLF precipitation of JAL cyclone has a higher Dm than ALF precipitation. Whereas, for THANE and NILAM cyclones ALF precipitations have higher Dm than BLF. The Dm values of three cyclones (both in BLF and ALF) are smaller than the Dm values of the other (Atlantic and Pacific) oceanic cyclones. Interaction of different regions (eyewall, inner rainbands, and outer rainbands) of cyclones with the environment and underlying surface led to RSD variations between BLF and ALF precipitations through different microphysical (collision-coalescence, breakup, evaporation, and riming) processes. The immediate significance of the present work is that (i) it contributes to our understanding of cyclone RSD in BLF and ALF precipitations, and (ii) it provides the useful information for quantitative estimation of rainfall from Doppler weather radar observations.

Criteria for evaluating the condition of a tropical cyclone warning system.

PubMed

Parker, D

1999-09-01

This paper evaluates the condition (i.e. health) of a tropical cyclone warning system (TCWS) during a 'quiet period' between infrequent intense cyclones. Capacity to make pre-disaster evaluations is important--disaster warning systems need to be in sound condition before, not after, disaster. The research--part of the UK's International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction Flagship Programme--focuses upon an evaluatory method first used on flood warning systems. The Criteria-development Matrix comprises social, organisational and institutional criteria by which a TCWS may be assessed using a five-stage development scale. This method is used to evaluate Mauritius's TCWS using in-depth interview data. Ways to enhance the method and apply it to other disaster warning systems are discussed. The TCWS in Mauritius is a relatively sound one from which others can learn. Weaknesses requiring attention for Mauritius's TCWS to progress to an advanced level of development are identified.

Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis processes in climate model and cloud-resolving model simulations using moist static energy budget analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Allison; Camargo, Suzana; Sobel, Adam; Kim, Daehyun; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin; Vecchi, Gabriel; Wehner, Michael; Zarzycki, Colin; Zhao, Ming

2017-04-01

In recent years, climate models have improved such that high-resolution simulations are able to reproduce the climatology of tropical cyclone activity with some fidelity and show some skill in seasonal forecasting. However biases remain in many models, motivating a better understanding of what factors control the representation of tropical cyclone activity in climate models. We explore the tropical cyclogenesis processes in five high-resolution climate models, including both coupled and uncoupled configurations. Our analysis framework focuses on how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled and employs budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy. The latter was originally developed to study the mechanisms of tropical convective organization in idealized cloud-resolving models, and allows us to quantify the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclogenesis. We track the formation and evolution of tropical cyclones in the climate model simulations and apply our analysis both along the individual tracks and composited over many tropical cyclones. We then compare the genesis processes; in particular, the role of cloud-radiation interactions, to those of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis in idealized cloud-resolving model simulations.

Ocean barrier layers’ effect on tropical cyclone intensification

PubMed Central

Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Leung, L. Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

2012-01-01

Improving a tropical cyclone’s forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone’s path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are “quasi-permanent” features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity. PMID:22891298

Predicting the trajectories and intensities of hurricanes by applying machine learning techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sujithkumar, A.; King, A. W.; Kovilakam, M.; Graves, D.

2017-12-01

The world has witnessed an escalation of devastating hurricanes and tropical cyclones over the last three decades. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones of very high magnitude will likely be even more frequent in a warmer world. Thus, precise forecasting of the track and intensity of hurricane/tropical cyclones remains one of the meteorological community's top priorities. However, comprehensive prediction of hurricane/ tropical cyclone is a difficult problem due to the many complexities of underlying physical processes with many variables and complex relations. The availability of global meteorological and hurricane/tropical storm climatological data opens new opportunities for data-driven approaches to hurricane/tropical cyclone modeling. Here we report initial results from two data-driven machine learning techniques, specifically, random forest (RF) and Bayesian learning (BL) to predict the trajectory and intensity of hurricanes and tropical cyclones. We used International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data along with weather data from NOAA in a 50 km buffer surrounding each of the reported hurricane and tropical cyclone tracts to train the model. Initial results reveal that both RF and BL are skillful in predicting storm intensity. We will also present results for the more complicated trajectory prediction.

Improving NASA's Multiscale Modeling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Climate Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Nelson, Bron; Cheung, Samson; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2013-01-01

One of the current challenges in tropical cyclone (TC) research is how to improve our understanding of TC interannual variability and the impact of climate change on TCs. Recent advances in global modeling, visualization, and supercomputing technologies at NASA show potential for such studies. In this article, the authors discuss recent scalability improvement to the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) that makes it feasible to perform long-term TC-resolving simulations. The MMF consists of the finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM), supplemented by a copy of the Goddard cumulus ensemble model (GCE) at each of the fvGCM grid points, giving 13,104 GCE copies. The original fvGCM implementation has a 1D data decomposition; the revised MMF implementation retains the 1D decomposition for most of the code, but uses a 2D decomposition for the massive copies of GCEs. Because the vast majority of computation time in the MMF is spent computing the GCEs, this approach can achieve excellent speedup without incurring the cost of modifying the entire code. Intelligent process mapping allows differing numbers of processes to be assigned to each domain for load balancing. The revised parallel implementation shows highly promising scalability, obtaining a nearly 80-fold speedup by increasing the number of cores from 30 to 3,335.

Evolution of the Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange And Analysis System (TC-IDEAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turk, J.; Chao, Y.; Haddad, Z.; Hristova-Veleva, S.; Knosp, B.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P.; Licata, S.; Poulsen, W.; Su, H.;

Statistical Detection of Anthropogenic Temporal Changes in the Distribution of Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joannes-boyau, R.; Bodin, T.; Scheffers, A.; Sambridge, M.

2012-12-01

Recent studies highlighting the potential impact of climate change on tropical cyclones have added fuel to the already controversial debates. The link between climate change and tropical cyclone intensity and frequency has been disputed, as both appear to remain in the natural variability. The difficulty lies in our ability to distinguish natural changes from anthropogenic-induced anomalies. The increased anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to environmental changes such as warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and thus could impact tropical cyclones intensities and frequencies. However, recent studies show that, against an increasing SST, no global trend in respect to cyclone frequency has yet emerged. Scientists have warned to consider the heterogeneity of the existing dataset; especially since the historical tropical cyclone record is frequently accused to be incomplete. Given the abundance of cyclone record data and its likely sensitivity to a number of environmental factors, the real limitation comes from our ability to understand the record as a whole. Thus, strong arguments against the impartiality of proposed models are often debated. We will present an impartial and independent statistical tool applicable to a wide variety of physical and biological phenomena such as processes described by power laws, to observe temporal variations in the tropical cyclone track record from 1842 to 2010. This methodology allows us to observe the impact of anthropogenic-induced modifications on climatic events, without being clustered in subjective parameterised models.

Sea turtle species vary in their susceptibility to tropical cyclones.

PubMed

Pike, David A; Stiner, John C

2007-08-01

Severe climatic events affect all species, but there is little quantitative knowledge of how sympatric species react to such situations. We compared the reproductive seasonality of sea turtles that nest sympatrically with their vulnerability to tropical cyclones (in this study, "tropical cyclone" refers to tropical storms and hurricanes), which are increasing in severity due to changes in global climate. Storm surges significantly decreased reproductive output by lowering the number of nests that hatched and the number of hatchlings that emerged from nests, but the severity of this effect varied by species. Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) began nesting earliest and most offspring hatched before the tropical cyclone season arrived, resulting in little negative effect. Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nested intermediately, and only nests laid late in the season were inundated with seawater during storm surges. Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nested last, and their entire nesting season occurred during the tropical cyclone season; this resulted in a majority (79%) of green turtle nests incubating in September, when tropical cyclones are most likely to occur. Since this timing overlaps considerably with the tropical cyclone season, the developing eggs and nests are extremely vulnerable to storm surges. Increases in the severity of tropical cyclones may cause green turtle nesting success to worsen in the future. However, published literature suggests that loggerhead turtles are nesting earlier in the season and shortening their nesting seasons in response to increasing sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change. This may cause loggerhead reproductive success to improve in the future because more nests will hatch before the onset of tropical cyclones. Our data clearly indicate that sympatric species using the same resources are affected differently by tropical cyclones due to slight variations in the seasonal timing of nesting, a key life history process.

A western boundary current eddy characterisation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribbe, Joachim; Brieva, Daniel

2016-12-01

The analysis of an eddy census for the East Australian Current (EAC) region yielded a total of 497 individual short-lived (7-28 days) cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies for the period 1993 to 2015. This was an average of about 23 eddies per year. 41% of the tracked individual cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies were detected off southeast Queensland between about 25 °S and 29 °S. This is the region where the flow of the EAC intensifies forming a swift western boundary current that impinges near Fraser Island on the continental shelf. This zone was also identified as having a maximum in detected short-lived cyclonic eddies. A total of 94 (43%) individual cyclonic eddies or about 4-5 per year were tracked in this region. The census found that these potentially displaced entrained water by about 115 km with an average displacement speed of about 4 km per day. Cyclonic eddies were likely to contribute to establishing an on-shelf longshore northerly flow forming the western branch of the Fraser Island Gyre and possibly presented an important cross-shelf transport process in the life cycle of temperate fish species of the EAC domain. In-situ observations near western boundary currents previously documented the entrainment, off-shelf transport and export of near shore water, nutrients, sediments, fish larvae and the renewal of inner shelf water due to short-lived eddies. This study found that these cyclonic eddies potentially play an important off-shelf transport process off the central east Australian coast.

PROCEEDINGS: ADVANCES IN PARTICLE SAMPLING AND MEASUREMENT (ASHEVILLE, NC, MAY 1978)

EPA Science Inventory

The proceedings consist of 17 papers on improved instruments and techniques for sampling and measuring particulate emissions and aerosols; e.g., cascade impactors, cyclone collectors, and diffusion-battery/nuclei-counter combinations. Transmissometers and instruments for measurin...

Diagnosing Warm Frontal Cloud Formation in a GCM: A Novel Approach Using Conditional Subsetting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Booth, James F.; Naud, Catherine M.; DelGenio, Anthony D.

2013-01-01

This study analyzes characteristics of clouds and vertical motion across extratropical cyclone warm fronts in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model. The validity of the modeled clouds is assessed using a combination of satellite observations from CloudSat, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. The analysis focuses on developing cyclones, to test the model's ability to generate their initial structure. To begin, the extratropical cyclones and their warm fronts are objectively identified and cyclone-local fields are mapped into a vertical transect centered on the surface warm front. To further isolate specific physics, the cyclones are separated using conditional subsetting based on additional cyclone-local variables, and the differences between the subset means are analyzed. Conditional subsets are created based on 1) the transect clouds and 2) vertical motion; 3) the strength of the temperature gradient along the warm front, as well as the storm-local 4) wind speed and 5) precipitable water (PW). The analysis shows that the model does not generate enough frontal cloud, especially at low altitude. The subsetting results reveal that, compared to the observations, the model exhibits a decoupling between cloud formation at high and low altitudes across warm fronts and a weak sensitivity to moisture. These issues are caused in part by the parameterized convection and assumptions in the stratiform cloud scheme that are valid in the subtropics. On the other hand, the model generates proper covariability of low-altitude vertical motion and cloud at the warm front and a joint dependence of cloudiness on wind and PW.

Analysis of Impact of Tropical Cyclone Blance on Rainfall at Kupang Region Based on Atmospheric Condition and Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roguna, S.; Saragih, I. J. A.; Siregar, P. S.; Julius, A. M.

2018-04-01

The Tropical Depression previously identified on March 3, 2017, at Arafuru Sea has grown to Tropical Cyclone Blance on March 5, 2017. The existence of Tropical Cyclone Blance gave impacts like increasing rainfall for some regions in Indonesia until March 7, 2017, such as Kupang. The increase of rainfall cannot be separated from the atmospheric dynamics related to convection processes and the formation of clouds. Analysis of weather parameters is made such as vorticity to observe vertical motion over the study area, vertical velocity to see the speed of lift force in the atmosphere, wind to see patterns of air mass distribution and rainfall to see the increase of rainfall compared to several days before the cyclone. Analysis of satellite imagery data is used as supporting analysis to see clouds imagery and movement direction of the cyclone. The results of weather parameters analysis show strong vorticity and lift force of air mass support the growth of Cumulonimbus clouds, cyclonic patterns on wind streamline and significant increase of rainfall compared to previous days. The results of satellite imagery analysis show the convective clouds over Kupang and surrounding areas when this phenomena and cyclone pattern moved down from Arafuru Sea towards the western part of Australia.

Process for direct conversion of reactive metals to glass

DOEpatents

Rajan, John B.; Kumar, Romesh; Vissers, Donald R.

1990-01-01

Radioactive alkali metal is introduced into a cyclone reactor in droplet form by an aspirating gas. In the cyclone metal reactor the aspirated alkali metal is contacted with silica powder introduced in an air stream to form in one step a glass. The sides of the cyclone reactor are preheated to ensure that the initial glass formed coats the side of the reactor forming a protective coating against the reactants which are maintained in excess of 1000.degree. C. to ensure the formation of glass in a single step.

How Does Tropical Cyclone Size Affect the Onset Timing of Secondary Eyewall Formation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Liang; Ge, Xuyang

2018-02-01

By using idealized numerical simulations, the impact of tropical cyclone size on secondary eyewall formation (SEF) is examined. Both unbalanced boundary layer and balanced processes are examined to reveal the underlying mechanism. The results show that a tropical cyclone (TC) with a larger initial size favors a quicker SEF and a larger outer eyewall. For a TC with a larger initial size, it will lead to a stronger surface entropy flux, and thus more active outer convection. Meanwhile, a greater inertial stability helps the conversion from diabatic heating to kinetic energy. Furthermore, the progressively broadening of the tangential wind field will induce significant boundary layer imbalances. This unbalanced boundary layer process results in a supergradient wind zone that acts as an important mechanism for triggering and maintaining deep convection. In short, different behaviors of balanced and unbalanced processes associated with the initial wind profile lead to different development rates of the secondary eyewall.

Extratropical Transition and Re-Intensification of Typhoon Toraji (2001): Large-Scale Circulations, Structural Characteristics, and Mechanism Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiande; Wu, Lixin; Wang, Qi

2018-06-01

With the use of data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, the environment and structure of typhoon Toraji (2001) are investigated during the re-intensification (RI) stage of its extratropical transition (ET), a process in which a tropical cyclone transforms into an extratropical or mid-latitude cyclone. The results provide detailed insight into the ET system and identify the specific features of the system, including wind field, a cold and dry intrusion, and a frontal structure in the RI stage. The irrotational wind provides the values of upper-and lower-level jets within the transitioning tropical cyclone and the cyclone over Shandong Peninsula, accompanied with the reduced radius of maximum surface winds around the cyclone center in the lower troposphere. Simultaneously, dry air intrusion enhances the formation of fronts and leads to strong potential instability in the southwest and northeast quadrants. The distribution of frontogenesis shows that the tilting term associated with vertical motion dominates the positive frontogenesis surrounding the cyclone center, especially in the RI stage. The diagnostics of the kinetic energy budget suggest that the divergent kinetic energy generation whose time evolution corresponds well to that of cyclone center pressure is the primary factor for the development of Toraji in the lower troposphere. The ET of Toraji is a compound pattern that contains a development similar to that of a B-type extratropical cyclone within the maintaining phase and an A-type extratropical cyclone within the strengthening period, which corresponds to the distribution of the E-P fluxes with vertically downward propagation in the maintaining stage and upwards momentum in the strengthening phase.

Sensitivities of Tropical Cyclones to Surface Friction and the Coriolis Parameter in a 2-D Cloud-Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The sensitivities to surface friction and the Coriolis parameter in tropical cyclogenesis are studied using an axisymmetric version of the Goddard cloud ensemble model. Our experiments demonstrate that tropical cyclogenesis can still occur without surface friction. However, the resulting tropical cyclone has very unrealistic structure. Surface friction plays an important role of giving the tropical cyclones their observed smaller size and diminished intensity. Sensitivity of the cyclogenesis process to surface friction. in terms of kinetic energy growth, has different signs in different phases of the tropical cyclone. Contrary to the notion of Ekman pumping efficiency, which implies a preference for the highest Coriolis parameter in the growth rate if all other parameters are unchanged, our experiments show no such preference.

Session A-14: Variability of Storm Tracks Storm Tracks and Unseasonable Temperatures in Europe in December 2001

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Przybylak, R.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Koslowsky, D.; Otterman, J.; Rogers, J.; Starr, D.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

In December 2001, a series of cyclonic centers progressed rapidly into Europe from the west and north. The cyclones moved in generally similar directions, along paths separated by few hundreds of kilometers. The advancing cyclones brought the usual sequence of changing wind directions and produced some high speed wind events. We investigate the wind patterns for this month based on analyses derived the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager observations and NCEP analyses. Whereas southwesterlies from the North Atlantic produced moderate temperatures early in the month, strong northerlies and northwesterlies (up to 15 m/s on 20-22 December) produced a drop in daily minimum and maximum temperatures of 18.8 C and 9.9 C, respectively, over a 4 day period (to -18.8 C and -6.8 C, respectively, on December 23 in Torun, Poland). Such low values in December are unprecedented in recent decades, though not for January or February.

Development of a software and hardware system for monitoring the air cleaning process using a cyclone-separator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolaeva, B. K.; Borisov, A. P.; Zlochevskiy, V. L.

2017-08-01

The article is devoted to the development of a hardware-software complex for monitoring and controlling the process of air purification by means of a cyclone-separator. The hardware of this complex is the Arduino platform, to which are connected pressure sensors, air velocities, dustmeters, which allow monitoring of the main parameters of the cyclone-separator. Also, a frequency converter was developed to regulate the rotation speed of an asynchronous motor necessary to correct the flow rate, the control signals of which come with Arduino. The program part of the complex is written in the form of a web application in the programming language JavaScript and inserts into CSS and HTML for the user interface. This program allows you to receive data from sensors, build dependencies in real time and control the speed of rotation of an asynchronous electric drive. The conducted experiment shows that the cleaning efficiency is 95-99.9%, while the airflow at the cyclone inlet is 16-18 m/s, and at the exit 50-70 m/s.

Early Student Support for a Process Study of Oceanic Responses to Typhoons

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

effect of these oceanic processes on air–sea fluxes during tropical cyclone passage will aid understanding of storm dynamics and structure. The ocean’s... Coriolis force, and the wind stress. This assumption is justified using the PWP3D model simulation. Before passage of the tropical cyclone eye, the...momentum balance is nearly linear, with a negligible pressure gradient effect . Most of the observed horizontal kinetic energy is within the upper 100 m

Tropical Processes Applications for CYGNSS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, Timothy J.

2017-01-01

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is focused primarily on observing extreme winds in the inner core of tropical cyclones But... Named storms will occur in view of CYGNSS constellation for only a small percentage of the time on orbit And... Rapid-update, all-weather sampling of wind speeds has many other applications in Tropical Meteorology So... Many potential tropical processes applications for CYGNSS were identified in previous Workshop - Let's revisit some of these possibilities now that the mission is up.

Air-Deployable Profiling Floats for Tropical Cyclone Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayne, S. R.; Robbins, P.; Owens, B.; Ekholm, A.; Dufour, J. E.; Sanabia, E.

2016-02-01

The development of a smaller profiling float that can be launched from Hurricane Hunter aircraft offers the opportunity to monitor the upper-ocean thermal structure over a time span of many months. These Argo-type profiling floats can be deployed in advance of, or during, a tropical cyclone from any aircraft equipped with an A-sized (AXBT) launch tube, or from the stern ramp of a C-130. The floats have the same dimensions as an AXBT and weigh about 8.5 kg. Upon deployment, the floats parachute to the surface, detach and automatically begin their programmed mission. The recorded temperature data is averaged over 1-meter bins that are reported back via the Iridium satellite phone network, which is then automatically processed and posted to the GTS. The floats are also reprogrammable via the 2-way communication afforded by Iridium. We report on the results of deployments during the 2014 and 2015 hurricane seasons. Unique observations of the ocean response from Hurricane Ignacio are particularly noteworthy and will be presented. Further plans for continued development of floats include measuring salinity (from an inductive conductivity sensor) and observations of the surface wave field (measured by an onboard accelerometer) will also be described.

Chemical and ecotoxicological characterization of ashes obtained from sewage sludge combustion in a fluidised-bed reactor.

PubMed

Lapa, N; Barbosa, R; Lopes, M H; Mendes, B; Abelha, P; Boavida, D; Gulyurtlu, I; Oliveira, J Santos

2007-08-17

In 1999, the DEECA/INETI and the UBiA/FCT/UNL started a researching project on the partition of heavy metals during the combustion of stabilised sewage sludge (Biogran), in a fluidised-bed reactor, and on the quality of the bottom ashes and fly ashes produced. This project was entitled Bimetal and was funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. In this paper only the results on the combustion of Biogran are reported. The combustion process was performed in two different trials, in which different amounts of sewage sludge and time of combustion were applied. Several ash samples were collected from the bed (bottom ashes) and from two cyclones (first cyclone and second cyclone ashes). Sewage sludge, bed material (sand) and ash samples were submitted to the leaching process defined in the European leaching standard EN 12457-2. The eluates were characterized for a set of inorganic chemical species. The ecotoxicological levels of the eluates were determined for two biological indicators (Vibrio fischeri and Daphnia magna). The results were compared with the limit values of the CEMWE French Regulation. The samples were also ranked according to an index based on the chemical characterization of the eluates. It was observed an increase of the concentration of metals along the combustion system. The ashes trapped in the second cyclone, for both combustion trials, showed the highest concentration of metals in the eluates. Chemically, the ashes of the second cyclone were the most different ones. In the ecotoxicological point of view, the ecotoxicity levels of the eluates of the ashes, for both combustion cycles, did not follow the same pattern as observed for the chemical characterization. The ashes of the first cyclone showed the highest ecotoxicity levels for V. fischeri and D. magna. This difference on chemical and ecotoxicological results proves the need for performing both chemical and ecotoxicological characterizations of the sub-products of such type of thermal processes.

Early-phase dynamics in coral recovery following cyclone disturbance on the inshore Great Barrier Reef, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Yui; Bell, Sara C.; Nichols, Cassandra; Fry, Kent; Menéndez, Patricia; Bourne, David G.

2018-06-01

Coral recovery (the restoration of abundance and composition of coral communities) after disturbance is a key process that determines the resilience of reef ecosystems. To understand the mechanisms underlying the recovery process of coral communities, colony abundance and size distribution were followed on reefs around Pelorus Island, located in the inshore central region of the Great Barrier Reef, following a severe tropical cyclone in 2011 that caused dramatic loss of coral communities. Permanent quadrats (600 m2) were monitored biannually between 2012 and 2016, and individual coral colonies were counted, sized and categorized into morphological types. The abundance of coral recruits and coral cover were also examined using permanent quadrats and random line intercept transects, respectively. The number of colonies in the smallest size class (4-10 cm) increased substantially during the study period, driving the recovery of coral populations. The total number of coral colonies 5 yr post-cyclone reached between 73 and 122% of pre-cyclone levels though coral cover remained between 16 and 31% of pre-cyclone levels, due to the dominance of small coral colonies in the recovering communities. Temporal transitions of coral demography (i.e., colony-size distributions) illustrated that the number of recently established coral populations overtook communities of surviving colonies. Coral recruits (< 4 cm in size) also showed increasing patterns in abundance over the study period, underscoring the importance of larval supply in coral recovery. A shift in morphological composition of coral communities was also observed, with the relative abundance of encrusting corals reduced post-cyclone in contrast to their dominance prior to the disturbance. This study identifies the fine-scale processes involved in the initial recovery of coral reefs, providing insights into the dynamics of coral demography that are essential for determining coral reef resilience following major disturbance.

Climatic hazards warning process in Bangladesh: Experience of, and lessons from, the 1991 April cyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haque, C. Emdad

1995-09-01

Science and technology cannot control entirely the causes of natural hazards. However, by using multifaceted programs to modify the physical and human use systems, the potential losses from disasters can effectively be minized. Predicting, identifying, monitoring, and forecasting extreme meteorological events are the preliminary actions towards mitigating the cyclone-loss potential of coastal inhabitants, but without the successful dissemination of forecasts and relevant information, and without appropriate responses by the potential victims, the loss potential would probably remain the same. This study examines the process through which warning of the impending disastrous cyclone of April 1991 was received by the local communities and disseminated throughout the coastal regions of Bangladesh. It is found that identification of the threatening condition due to atmospheric disturbance, monitoring of the hazard event, and dissemination of the cyclone warning were each very successful. However, due to a number of socioeconomic and cognitive factors, the reactions and responses of coastal inhabitants to the warning were in general passive, resulting in a colossal loss, both at the individual and national level. The study recommends that the hazard mitigation policies should be integrated with national economic development plans and programs. Specifically, it is suggested that, in order to attain its goals, the cyclone warning system should regard the aspects of human response to warnings as a constituent part and accommodate human dimensions in its operational design.

Explosive cyclogenesis of extra-tropical cyclone Klaus and its effects in Catalonia. A case study of hurricane force gusts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, J.; López, J. A.; Martín, F.; Morales, G.; Pascual, R.

2009-09-01

On 23th and 24th of January 2009, the extra-tropical cyclone Klaus crossed the north of Spain and the south of France producing several deaths and generalized damages. The cyclone of Atlantic origin underwent an explosive deepening of more than 1 hPa per hour at the surface level. Catalonia region was affected by gale-force winds and hurricane gusts. The Atlantic depression underwent a process called explosive cyclogenesis (when a surface cyclone deepens at a rate higher than 1 hPa/hr over 24 hours, approximately) in front of the Spanish Atlantic coasts. In this study we focus on its impact in the Catalonia areas where both synoptic and local effects were important. Also we evaluate the performance of the numerical weather prediction model outputs against observed data.

Numerical study of particle deposition and scaling in dust exhaust of cyclone separator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, W. W.; Li, Q.; Zhao, Y. L.; Wang, J. J.; Jin, Y. H.

2016-05-01

The solid particles accumulation in the dust exhaust cone area of the cyclone separator can cause the wall wear. This undoubtedly prevents the flue gas turbine from long period and safe operation. So it is important to study the mechanism how the particles deposited and scale on dust exhaust cone area of the cyclone separator. Numerical simulations of gas-solid flow field have been carried out in a single tube in the third cyclone separator. The three-dimensionally coupled computational fluid dynamic (CFD) technology and the modified Discrete Phase Model (DPM) are adopted to model the gas-solid two-phase flow. The results show that with the increase of the operating temperature and processing capacity, the particle sticking possibility near the cone area will rise. The sticking rates will decrease when the particle diameter becomes bigger.

The Use of Mesoscale Eddies and Gulf Stream Meanders by White Sharks Carcharodon carcharias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaube, P.; Thorrold, S.; Braun, C.; McGillicuddy, D. J., Jr.; Lawson, G. L.; Skomal, G. B.

2016-02-01

Large pelagic fishes like sharks, tuna, swordfish, and billfish spend a portion of their lives in the open ocean, yet their spatial distribution in this vast habitat remains relatively unknown. Mesoscale ocean eddies, rotating vortices with radius scales of approximately 100 km, structure open ocean ecosystems from primary producers to apex predators by influencing nutrient distributions and transporting large trapped parcels of water over long distances. Recent advances in both the tagging and tracking of marine animals combined with improved detection and tracking of mesoscale eddies has shed some light on the oceanographic features influencing their migrations. Here we show that white sharks use the interiors of anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies differently, a previously undocumented behavior. While swimming in warm, subtropical water, white sharks preferentially inhabit anticyclonic eddies compared to cyclonic eddies. In the vicinity of the Gulf Stream, the depth and duration of dives recorded by an archival temperature- and depth-recording tag affixed to a large female are shown to be significantly deeper and longer in anticyclonic eddies compared to those in cyclonic eddies. This asymmetry is linked to positive subsurface temperature anomalies generated by anticyclonic eddies that are more than 7 degrees C warmer than cyclonic eddies, thus reducing the need for these animals to expend as much energy regulating their internal temperature. In addition, anticyclonic eddies may be regions of enhance foraging success, as suggested by a series of acoustics surveys in the North Atlantic which indicated elevated mesopelagic fish biomass in anticyclones compared to cyclones.

Estimation of oceanic subsurface mixing under a severe cyclonic storm using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, Kumar Ravi; Nigam, Tanuja; Pant, Vimlesh

2018-04-01

A coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model was used to examine mixing in the upper-oceanic layers under the influence of a very severe cyclonic storm Phailin over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 10-14 October 2013. The coupled model was found to improve the sea surface temperature over the uncoupled model. Model simulations highlight the prominent role of cyclone-induced near-inertial oscillations in subsurface mixing up to the thermocline depth. The inertial mixing introduced by the cyclone played a central role in the deepening of the thermocline and mixed layer depth by 40 and 15 m, respectively. For the first time over the BoB, a detailed analysis of inertial oscillation kinetic energy generation, propagation, and dissipation was carried out using an atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model during a cyclone. A quantitative estimate of kinetic energy in the oceanic water column, its propagation, and its dissipation mechanisms were explained using the coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model. The large shear generated by the inertial oscillations was found to overcome the stratification and initiate mixing at the base of the mixed layer. Greater mixing was found at the depths where the eddy kinetic diffusivity was large. The baroclinic current, holding a larger fraction of kinetic energy than the barotropic current, weakened rapidly after the passage of the cyclone. The shear induced by inertial oscillations was found to decrease rapidly with increasing depth below the thermocline. The dampening of the mixing process below the thermocline was explained through the enhanced dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy upon approaching the thermocline layer. The wave-current interaction and nonlinear wave-wave interaction were found to affect the process of downward mixing and cause the dissipation of inertial oscillations.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Position Analysis Using Passive Microwave Imager and Sounder Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

NPP) Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) for a sample of 28 North Atlantic storms from the 2011 through 2013 TC seasons . Using a stepwise...58 27. NOAA NHC 2011 TC Season Tracks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 28...per Season and TCs with Aircraft Reconnaissance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

A study of formation and development of one kind of cyclone on the mei-yu (Baiu) front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Feng; Zhao, Sixiong

2004-10-01

The paper presents one diagnosis of baroclinity and the coupling of jets during the developing process of a cyclone that occurred on the mei-yu (Baiu) front around the end of the second stage of the mei-yu (Baiu) in 1998. Results have shown that: (1) The advantageous changes of upper-level large-scale circulation caused the appearance and maintenance of the coupling between the upper-level jet (ULJ) and lower-level jet (LLJ) over the cyclone’s area. The coupling of jets in this case possesses some different characteristics from previous cases. Moreover, the coupling between the ULJ and LLJ caused the intensification of both lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, which was favorable for the development of this cyclone. (2) From the analysis of the voricity budget, the role of lower-level convergence in the development of the cyclone was emphasized. Divergent wind in the lower troposphere was a direct contributor to the development of the cyclone. (3) During the development of the cyclone, cold air and warm air were active over the cyclone’s domain. Although this cyclone occurred at the mei-yu (Baiu) front, its development assumed baroclinity to a certain extent, which was just the main difference between this kind of cyclone and the first kind of low which is usually barotropic (or quasi-barotropic). (4) In recent years, studies on mei-yu front lows have paid more attention to the lower troposphere. In this paper, the analysis of the energy budget further supports this point: the certain effect of baroclinity forcing in the upper troposphere on mei-yu front lows cannot be ignored.

Oceanic forcing of coral reefs.

PubMed

Lowe, Ryan J; Falter, James L

2015-01-01

Although the oceans play a fundamental role in shaping the distribution and function of coral reefs worldwide, a modern understanding of the complex interactions between ocean and reef processes is still only emerging. These dynamics are especially challenging owing to both the broad range of spatial scales (less than a meter to hundreds of kilometers) and the complex physical and biological feedbacks involved. Here, we review recent advances in our understanding of these processes, ranging from the small-scale mechanics of flow around coral communities and their influence on nutrient exchange to larger, reef-scale patterns of wave- and tide-driven circulation and their effects on reef water quality and perceived rates of metabolism. We also examine regional-scale drivers of reefs such as coastal upwelling, internal waves, and extreme disturbances such as cyclones. Our goal is to show how a wide range of ocean-driven processes ultimately shape the growth and metabolism of coral reefs.

Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using COAMPS-TC

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

landfalling hurricanes with the advanced hurricane WRF model. Monthly Weather Review 136:1,990–2,005, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2085.1. DeMaria, M...Weisman. 2004. The next generation of NWP: Explicit forecasts of convection using the Weather Research and Forecast ( WRF ) Model. Atmospheric Science

Impact of Representing Model Error in a Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for Track Forecast of Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutty, Govindan; Muraleedharan, Rohit; Kesarkar, Amit P.

2018-03-01

Uncertainties in the numerical weather prediction models are generally not well-represented in ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) systems. The performance of an ensemble-based DA system becomes suboptimal, if the sources of error are undersampled in the forecast system. The present study examines the effect of accounting for model error treatments in the hybrid ensemble transform Kalman filter—three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) DA system (hybrid) in the track forecast of two tropical cyclones viz. Hudhud and Thane, formed over the Bay of Bengal, using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model. We investigated the effect of two types of model error treatment schemes and their combination on the hybrid DA system; (i) multiphysics approach, which uses different combination of cumulus, microphysics and planetary boundary layer schemes, (ii) stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme, which perturbs the horizontal wind and potential temperature tendencies, (iii) a combination of both multiphysics and SKEB scheme. Substantial improvements are noticed in the track positions of both the cyclones, when flow-dependent ensemble covariance is used in 3DVAR framework. Explicit model error representation is found to be beneficial in treating the underdispersive ensembles. Among the model error schemes used in this study, a combination of multiphysics and SKEB schemes has outperformed the other two schemes with improved track forecast for both the tropical cyclones.

Tonga Cyclone Damage Mapped by NASA's ARIA Team

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-21

The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory created this Damage Proxy Map (DPM) of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, following the landfall of Cyclone Gita, a Category 4 storm that hit Tonga on Feb. 12-13, 2018. The map depicts areas that are likely damaged from the storm, shown by red and yellow pixels. The map was produced by comparing two pairs of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images from the COSMO-SkyMed satellites, operated by the Italian Space Agency (ASI). The pre- and post-cyclone images were acquired on Jan. 19 and Feb. 13, 2018, respectively. The later image was acquired just 4-1/2 hours after the peak damage by the cyclone. The map covers the entire island of Tongatapu (the 25-by-25-mile, or 40-by-40 kilometer SAR image footprint indicated with the large red polygon). Each pixel measures about 98 feet (30 meters) across. The color variation from yellow to red indicates increasingly more significant ground surface change. Preliminary validation of the SAR data was done by comparing them with high-resolution optical imagery acquired by DigitalGlobe. This Damage Proxy Map should be used as guidance to identify damaged areas and may be less reliable over vegetated and flooded areas. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA22257

The Use of Red Green Blue Air Mass Imagery to Investigate the Role of Stratospheric Air in a Non-convective Wind Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedlovec, G. J.; Molthan, A. L.

2013-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Use of JPSS ATMS, CrIS, and VIIRS data to Improve Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chirokova, G.; Demaria, M.; DeMaria, R.; Knaff, J. A.; Dostalek, J.; Musgrave, K. D.; Beven, J. L.

2015-12-01

JPSS data provide unique information that could be critical for the forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity and is currently underutilized. Preliminary results from several TC applications using data from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), the Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), carried by the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership satellite (SNPP), will be discussed. The first group of applications, which includes applications for moisture flux and for eye-detection, aims to improve rapid intensification (RI) forecasts, which is one of the highest priorities within NOAA. The applications could be used by forecasters directly and will also provide additional input to the Rapid Intensification Index (RII), the statistical-dynamical tool for forecasting RI events that is operational at the National Hurricane Center. The moisture flux application uses bias-corrected ATMS-MIRS (Microwave Integrated Retrieval System) and NUCAPS (NOAA Unique CrIS ATMS Processing System), retrievals that provide very accurate temperature and humidity soundings in the TC environment to detect dry air intrusions. The objective automated eye-detection application uses geostationary and VIIRS data in combination with machine learning and computer vision techniques for determining the onset of eye formation which is very important for TC intensity forecast but is usually determined by subjective methods. First version of the algorithm showed very promising results with a 75% success rate. The second group of applications develops tools to better utilize VIIRS data, including day-night band (DNB) imagery, for tropical cyclone forecasting. Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and findings contained in this article are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or U.S. Government position, policy, or decision.

The influence of an atmospheric Two-Way coupled model system on the predictability of extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, Mareike; Thürkow, Markus; Weiher, Stefan; Kirchner, Ingo; Ulbrich, Uwe; Will, Andreas

2016-04-01

A general bias of global atmosphere ocean models, and also of the MPI-ESM, is an under-representation of the high latitude cyclone activity and an overestimation of the mid latitude cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, thus representing the extra-tropical storm track too zonal. We will show, that this effect can be antagonized by applying an atmospheric Two-Way Coupling (TWC). In this study we present a newly developed Two-Way Coupled model system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, and show that it is able to capture the mean storm track location more accurate. It also influences the sub-decadal deterministic predictability of extra-tropical cyclones and shows significantly enhanced skill compared to the "uncoupled" MPI-ESM standalone system. This study evaluates a set of hindcast experiments performed with said Two-Way Coupled model system. The regional model COSMO CLM is Two-Way Coupled to the atmosphere of the global Max-Plack-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and therefore integrates and exchanges the state of the atmosphere every 10 minutes (MPI-TWC-ESM). In the coupled source region (North Atlantic), mesoscale processes which are relevant for the formation and early-stage development of cyclones are expected to be better represented, and therefore influence the large scale dynamics of the target region (Europe). The database covers 102 "uncoupled" years and 102 Two-Way Coupled years of the recent climate (1960-2010). Results are validated against the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Besides the climatological point of view, the design of this single model ensemble allows for an analysis of the predictability of the first and second leadyears of the hindcasts. As a first step to understand the improved predictability of cyclones, we will show a detailed analysis of climatologies for specific cyclone categories, sorted by season and region. Especially for cyclones affecting Europe, the TWC is capable to counteract the AOGCM's biases in the North Atlantic. Also, cyclones which are generated in the northern North Atlantic and the Labrador Sea are to an extraordinary extent underestimated in the "uncoupled" MPI-ESM - for the latter region the TWC can balance this shortcoming. In the Northern Hemisphere annual mean statistics the TWC does not change the distribution of the strength of cyclones, but it changes the distribution of the lifetime of cyclones.

Analysis of Sub-Grid Boundary-Layer Processes Observed by the P-3 Doppler Wind Lidar in Support of the Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 Experiment

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-02

flight hours to one significant atmospheric phenomena. OBJECTIVES The P-3 Doppler Wind Lidar (P3DWL) uses the latest version of a coherent ... Doppler transceiver developed at Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies. The lidar , with the exception of the scanner, is shown on the top in Figure 1...Processes Observed by the P-3 Doppler Wind Lidar in Support of the Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 Experiment Ralph Foster Applied

Infrasound induced instability by modulation of condensation process in the atmosphere.

PubMed

Naugolnykh, Konstantin; Rybak, Samuil

2008-12-01

A sound wave in supersaturated water vapor can modulate both the process of heat release caused by condensation, and subsequently, as a result, the resonance interaction of sound with the modulated heat release provides sound amplification. High-intensity atmospheric perturbations such as cyclones and thunderstorms generate infrasound, which is detectable at large distances from the source. The wave-condensation instability can lead to variation in the level of infrasound radiation by a developing cyclone, and this can be as a precursor of these intense atmospheric events.

Suomi NPP View of a Strong Midwest Cyclone

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-02-25

A strong late-winter cyclone brought significant snows and blizzard conditions to the upper Great Lakes/northern Plains on 21 February 2014. In the warm sector of the storm, there were numerous reports of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the eastern US. Suomi NPP viewed the storm multiple times, including just before 1800 UTC on 21 February. Credit: NASA/Goddard/UWM/SSEC/CIMSS/Suomi NPP NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Introduction to Special Section on Oceanic Responses and Feedbacks to Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Lei; Chen, Dake; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Wang, Chunzai; Lei, Xiaotu; Wang, Wei; Wang, Guihua; Han, Guijun

2018-02-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive natural hazards on Earth. The ocean can have dramatic responses to TCs and further imposes significant feedbacks to the atmosphere. A comprehensive understanding of the ocean-TC interaction is a challenging hindrance for improving the simulation and prediction of TCs and therefore avoidance of human and economic losses. A special section of JGR-Oceans was thus organized, in order to have a broad summary of latest progress in ocean-TC interactions. This introduction presents a brief overview of the contributions found in this collection. We hope it can also shed light on recent advance and future challenges in the studies on the oceanic responses and feedbacks to TCs.

Four Tropical Cyclones Across the Entire Pacific Ocean

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

This GOES-West satellite image shows four tropical cyclones in the North Western, Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean on September 1, 2015. In the Western Pacific (far left) is Typhoon Kilo. Moving east (to the right) into the Central Pacific is Hurricane Ignacio (just east of Hawaii), and Hurricane Jimena. The eastern-most storm is Tropical Depression 14E in the Eastern Pacific. Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era.

PubMed

Reed, Andra J; Mann, Michael E; Emanuel, Kerry A; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P; Kemp, Andrew C; Donnelly, Jeffrey P

2015-10-13

In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850-1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970-2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.

The sensitivity to the microphysical schemes on the skill of forecasting the track and intensity of tropical cyclones using WRF-ARW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhury, Devanil; Das, Someshwar

2017-06-01

The Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model is used to simulate Very Severe Cyclonic Storms (VSCS) Hudhud (7-13 October, 2014), Phailin (8-14 October, 2013) and Lehar (24-29 November, 2013) to investigate the sensitivity to microphysical schemes on the skill of forecasting track and intensity of the tropical cyclones for high-resolution (9 and 3 km) 120-hr model integration. For cloud resolving grid scale (<5 km) cloud microphysics plays an important role. The performance of the Goddard, Thompson, LIN and NSSL schemes are evaluated and compared with observations and a CONTROL forecast. This study is aimed to investigate the sensitivity to microphysics on the track and intensity with explicitly resolved convection scheme. It shows that the Goddard one-moment bulk liquid-ice microphysical scheme provided the highest skill on the track whereas for intensity both Thompson and Goddard microphysical schemes perform better. The Thompson scheme indicates the highest skill in intensity at 48, 96 and 120 hr, whereas at 24 and 72 hr, the Goddard scheme provides the highest skill in intensity. It is known that higher resolution domain produces better intensity and structure of the cyclones and it is desirable to resolve the convection with sufficiently high resolution and with the use of explicit cloud physics. This study suggests that the Goddard cumulus ensemble microphysical scheme is suitable for high resolution ARW simulation for TC's track and intensity over the BoB. Although the present study is based on only three cyclones, it could be useful for planning real-time predictions using ARW modelling system.

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

PubMed Central

Reed, Andra J.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

2015-01-01

In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies. PMID:26417111

Investigating Sensitivity to Saharan Dust in Tropical Cyclone Formation Using Nasa's Adjoint Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holdaway, Daniel

2015-01-01

As tropical cyclones develop from easterly waves coming of the coast of Africa they interact with dust from the Sahara desert. There is a long standing debate over whether this dust inhibits or advances the developing storm and how much influence it has. Dust can surround the storm and absorb incoming solar radiation, cooling the air below. As a result an energy source for the system is potentially diminished, inhibiting growth of the storm. Alternatively dust may interact with clouds through micro-physical processes, for example by causing more moisture to condense, potentially increasing the strength. As a result of climate change, concentrations and amount of dust in the atmosphere will likely change. It it is important to properly understand its effect on tropical storm formation. The adjoint of an atmospheric general circulation model provides a very powerful tool for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently developed an adjoint version of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) dynamical core, convection scheme, cloud model and radiation schemes. This is extended so that the interaction between dust and radiation is also accounted for in the adjoint model. This provides a framework for examining the sensitivity to dust in the initial conditions. Specifically the set up allows for an investigation into the extent to which dust affects cyclone strength through absorption of radiation. In this work we investigate the validity of using an adjoint model for examining sensitivity to dust in hurricane formation. We present sensitivity results for a number of systems that developed during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. During this period there was a significant outbreak of Saharan dust and it is has been argued that this outbreak was responsible for the relatively calm season. This period was also covered by an extensive observation campaign. It is shown that the adjoint can provide insight into the sensitivity and reveals a relatively low sensitivity to dust compared to, for example, the thermodynamic variables. However a secondary sensitivity though moisture is seen. If dust dries the air it can significantly reduce the cyclone intensity through the moisture.

Investigating sensitivity to Saharan dust in tropical cyclone formation using NASA's adjoint model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holdaway, Daniel

2015-04-01

As tropical cyclones develop from easterly waves coming off the coast of Africa they interact with dust from the Sahara desert. There is a long standing debate over whether this dust inhibits or advances the developing storm and how much influence it has. Dust can surround the storm and absorb incoming solar radiation, cooling the air below. As a result an energy source for the system is potentially diminished, inhibiting growth of the storm. Alternatively dust may interact with clouds through micro-physical processes, for example by causing more moisture to condense, potentially increasing the strength. As a result of climate change, concentrations and amount of dust in the atmosphere will likely change. It it is important to properly understand its effect on tropical storm formation. The adjoint of an atmospheric general circulation model provides a very powerful tool for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently developed an adjoint version of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) dynamical core, convection scheme, cloud model and radiation schemes. This is extended so that the interaction between dust and radiation is also accounted for in the adjoint model. This provides a framework for examining the sensitivity to dust in the initial conditions. Specifically the set up allows for an investigation into the extent to which dust affects cyclone strength through absorption of radiation. In this work we investigate the validity of using an adjoint model for examining sensitivity to dust in hurricane formation. We present sensitivity results for a number of systems that developed during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. During this period there was a significant outbreak of Saharan dust and it is has been argued that this outbreak was responsible for the relatively calm season. This period was also covered by an extensive observation campaign. It is shown that the adjoint can provide insight into the sensitivity and reveals a relatively low sensitivity to dust compared to, for example, the thermodynamic variables. However a secondary sensitivity though moisture is seen. If dust dries the air it can significantly reduce the cyclone intensity through the moisture.

The Relationship Between Extratropical Cyclone Steering and Blocking Along the North American East Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, James F.; Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne; Pfahl, Stephan

2017-12-01

The path and speed of extratropical cyclones along the east coast of North America influence their societal impact. This work characterizes the climatological relationship between cyclone track path and speed, and blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). An analysis of Lagrangian cyclone track propagation speed and angle shows that the percentage of cyclones with blocks is larger for cyclones that propagate northward or southeastward, as is the size of the blocked region near the cyclone. Cyclone-centered composites show that propagation of cyclones relative to blocks is consistent with steering by the block: northward tracks more often have a block east/northeast of the cyclone; slow tracks tend to have blocks due north of the cyclone. Comparison with the NAO shows that to first-order blocking and the NAO steer cyclones in a similar manner. However, blocked cyclones are more likely to propagate northward, increasing the likelihood of cyclone related impacts.

Structure analyses of the explosive extratropical cyclone: A case study over the Northwestern Pacific in March 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuai; Fu, Gang; Pang, Huaji

2017-12-01

The synoptic situation and mesoscale structure of an explosive extratropical cyclone over the Northwestern Pacific in March 2007 are investigated through weather station observations and data reanalysis. The cyclone is located beneath the poleward side of the exit of a 200 hPa jet, which is a strong divergent region aloft. At mid-level, the cyclone lies on the downstream side of a well-developed trough, where a strong ascending motion frequently occurs. Cross-section analyses with weather station data show that the cyclone has a warm and moist core. A `nose' of the cold front, which is characterized by a low-level protruding structure in the equivalent potential temperature field, forms when the cyclone moves offshore. This `nose' structure is hypothesized to have been caused by the heating effect of the Kuroshio Current. Two low-level jet streams are also identified on the western and eastern sides of the cold front. The western jet conveys cold and dry air at 800-900 hPa. The wind in the northern part is northeasterly, and the wind in the southern part is northwesterly. By contrast, the eastern jet carries warm and moist air into the cyclone system, ascending northward from 900 hPa to 600-700 hPa. The southern part is dominated by the southerly wind, and the wind in the northern part is southwesterly. The eastern and western jets significantly increase the air temperature and moisture contrast in the vicinity of the cold front. This increase could play an important role in improving the rapid cyclogenesis process.

Band limited emission with central frequency around 2 Hz accompanying powerful cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Troitskaia, V. A.; Shepetnov, K. S.; Dvobnia, B. D.

1992-01-01

It has been found that powerful cyclones are proceeded, accompanied and followed by narrow band electromagnetic emission with central frequency around 2 Hz. It is shown that the signal from this emission is unique and clearly distinguishable from known types of magnetic pulsations, spectra of local thunderstorms, and signals from industrial sources. This emission was first observed during an unusually powerful cyclone with tornadoes in the western European part of the Soviet Union, which passed by the observatory of Borok from south to north-east. The emission has been confirmed by analysis of similar events in Antarctica. The phenomenon described presents a new aspect of interactions of processes in the lower atmosphere and the ionosphere.

Submesoscale cyclones in the Agulhas current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krug, M.; Swart, S.; Gula, J.

2017-01-01

Gliders were deployed for the first time in the Agulhas Current region to investigate processes of interactions between western boundary currents and shelf waters. Continuous observations from the gliders in water depths of 100-1000 m and over a period of 1 month provide the first high-resolution observations of the Agulhas Current's inshore front. The observations collected in a nonmeandering Agulhas Current show the presence of submesoscale cyclonic eddies, generated at the inshore boundary of the Agulhas Current. The submesoscale cyclones are often associated with warm water plumes, which extend from their western edge and exhibit strong northeastward currents. These features are a result of shear instabilities and extract their energy from the mean Agulhas Current jet.

Atmospheric Motion Vectors from INSAT-3D: Initial quality assessment and its impact on track forecast of cyclonic storm NANAUK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deb, S. K.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Kumar, Prashant; Kiran Kumar, A. S.; Pal, P. K.; Kaushik, Nitesh; Sangar, Ghansham

2016-03-01

The advanced Indian meteorological geostationary satellite INSAT-3D was launched on 26 July 2013 with an improved imager and an infrared sounder and is placed at 82°E over the Indian Ocean region. With the advancement in retrieval techniques of different atmospheric parameters and with improved imager data have enhanced the scope for better understanding of the different tropical atmospheric processes over this region. The retrieval techniques and accuracy of one such parameter, Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) has improved significantly with the availability of improved spatial resolution data along with more options of spectral channels in the INSAT-3D imager. The present work is mainly focused on providing brief descriptions of INSAT-3D data and AMV derivation processes using these data. It also discussed the initial quality assessment of INSAT-3D AMVs for a period of six months starting from 01 February 2014 to 31 July 2014 with other independent observations: i) Meteosat-7 AMVs available over this region, ii) in-situ radiosonde wind measurements, iii) cloud tracked winds from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) and iv) numerical model analysis. It is observed from this study that the qualities of newly derived INSAT-3D AMVs are comparable with existing two versions of Meteosat-7 AMVs over this region. To demonstrate its initial application, INSAT-3D AMVs are assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and it is found that the assimilation of newly derived AMVs has helped in reduction of track forecast errors of the recent cyclonic storm NANAUK over the Arabian Sea. Though, the present study is limited to its application to one case study, however, it will provide some guidance to the operational agencies for implementation of this new AMV dataset for future applications in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) over the south Asia region.

Simulation of the Genesis of Hurricane Javier (2004) in the Eastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott

2005-01-01

NASA is preparing for the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) field experiment in July 2005, a joint effort with NOAA to study tropical cloud systems and tropical cyclone genesis in the Eastern Pacific. A major thrust of the TCSP program is the improvement of the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclone genesis, intensity, motion, rainfall potential, and landfall impacts using remote sensing and in-situ data, as well as numerical modeling, particularly as they relate to the three phases of water. The Eastern Pacific has the highest frequency of genesis events per unit area of any region worldwide. African easterly waves, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and orographic effects are thought to play roles in the genesis of tropical cyclones there. The general consensus is that tropical depressions form in association with one or more mid-level, mesoscale cyclonic vortices that are generated within the stratiform region of the MCS precursors. To create the warm core tropical depression vortex, however, the midlevel cyclonic circulation must somehow extend down to the surface and the tangential winds must attain sufficient strength (-10 m s- ) to enable the wind-induced surface heat exchange to increase the potential energy of the boundary layer air.

The impact of dynamic data assimilation on the numerical simulations of the QE II cyclone and an analysis of the jet streak influencing the precyclogenetic environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manobianco, John; Uccellini, Louis W.; Brill, Keith F.; Kuo, Ying-Hwa

1992-01-01

A mesoscale numerical model is combined with a dynamic data assimilation via Newtonian relaxation, or 'nudging', to provide initial conditions for subsequent simulations of the QE II cyclone. Both the nudging technique and the inclusion of supplementary data are shown to have a large positive impact on the simulation of the QE II cyclone during the initial phase of rapid cyclone development. Within the initial development period (from 1200 to 1800 UTC 9 September 1978), the dynamic assimilation of operational and bogus data yields a coherent two-layer divergence pattern that is not well defined in the model run using only the operational data and static initialization. Diagnostic analysis based on the simulations show that the initial development of the QE II storm between 0000 UTC 9 September and 0000 UTC 10 September was embedded within an indirect circulation of an intense 300-hPa jet streak, was related to baroclinic processes extending throughout a deep portion of the troposphere, and was associated with a classic two-layer mass-divergence profile expected for an extratropical cyclone.

Fine-Scale Comparison of TOMS Total Ozone Data with Model Analysis of an Intense Midwestern Cyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Mark A.; Gallus, William A., Jr.; Stanford, John L.; Brown, John M.

2000-01-01

High-resolution (approx. 40 km) along-track total column ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument are compared with a high-resolution mesoscale numerical model analysis of an intense cyclone in the Midwestern United States. Total ozone increased by 100 DU (nearly 38%) as the TOMS instrument passed over the associated tropopause fold region. Complex structure is seen in the meteorological fields and compares well with the total ozone observations. Ozone data support the meteorological analysis showing that stratospheric descent was confined to levels above approx. 600 hPa; significant positive potential vorticity at lower levels is attributable to diabetic processes. Likewise, meteorological fields show that two pronounced ozone streamers extending north and northeastward into Canada at high levels are not bands of stratospheric air feeding into the cyclone; one is a channel of exhaust downstream from the system, and the other apparently previously connected the main cyclonic circulation to a southward intrusion of polar stratospheric air and advected eastward as the cut-off cyclone evolved. Good agreement between small-scale features in the model output and total ozone data underscores the latter's potential usefulness in diagnosing upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric dynamics and kinematics.

"Midget typhoon" in the western Pacific Ocean

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

It’s usually the big, sprawling storms that attract the attention of meteorologists, but occasionally tiny storms can make news as well. The most recent example is a suspected mini-typhoon that drifted across the western Pacific Ocean in mid-July 2013. The storm system emerged on July 16 and dissipated by July 19 without making landfall or causing any significant damage. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image of the storm on July 17, 2013. It had the spiral shape of a tropical cyclone, but the cloud field was less than 100 kilometers (60 miles) across. For comparison, Super Typhoon Jelawat, the most intense storm of the 2012 season, had a cloud field that stretched nearly 1,000 kilometers (600 miles). Jelawat’s eye alone—with a diameter of 64 kilometers (40 miles)—was two-thirds the size of the entire July 2013 storm. Despite their small size, mini-cyclones are driven by the same forces that drive larger storms. Both small and large cyclonic storms are simply organized convection feeding off warm water in areas with low wind shear. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the low-pressure areas for these mini-typhoons must span less than two degrees of latitude (about 140 miles) and have sustained winds of 65 knots (74 miles per hour). The 2013 storm in the Pacific certainly meets the first criteria, but it is unlikely that the storm achieved typhoon-force winds. It’s also unlikely that the system had a “warm core,” which all true tropical cyclones have. While this storm did not cause damage, other mini storms certainly have. In 1974, the miniature cyclone Tracy hit Darwin, Australia, killing 71 people and destroying more than 70 percent of the city’s buildings. According to the National Hurricane Center, tropical cyclone Marco unseated Tracy as the smallest tropical cyclone on record in 2008. Marco had gale force winds that extended just 19 kilometers (12 miles). Typhoon Tip, with gale force winds extending 1,000 kilometers (675 miles) is the largest tropical cyclone on record. Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dacre, H.; Gray, S.

2009-09-01

Mid-latitude cyclones play a large role in determining the day-to-day weather conditions in western Europe through their associated wind and precipitation patterns. Thus, their typical spatial and evolution characteristics are of great interest to meteorologists, insurance and risk management companies. In this study a feature tracking algorithm is applied to a cyclone database produced using the Hewson-method of cyclone identification, based on low-level gradients of wet-bulb potential temperature, to produce a climatology of mid-latitude cyclones. The aim of this work is to compare the cyclone track and density statistics found in this study with previous climatologies and to determine reasons for any differences. This method is found to compare well with other cyclone identification methods; the north Atlantic storm track is reproduced along with the major regions of genesis. Differences are attributed to cyclone lifetime and strength thresholds, dataset resolution and cyclone identification and tracking methods. Previous work on cyclone development has been largely limited to case studies as opposed to analysis of climatological data, and does not distinguish between the different stages of cyclone evolution. The cyclone database used in this study allows cyclone characteristics to be tracked throughout the cyclone lifecycle. This enables the evaluation of the characteristics of cyclone evolution for systems forming in different genesis regions and a calculation of the spatial distribution and evolution of these characteristics in composite cyclones. It was found that most of the cyclones that cross western Europe originate in the east Atlantic where the baroclinicity and sea surface temperature gradients are weak compared to the west Atlantic. East Atlantic cyclones also have higher low-level relative vorticity and lower mean sea level pressure at their genesis point than west Atlantic cyclones. This is consistent with the hypothesis that they are secondary cyclones developing on the trailing fronts of pre-existing 'parent' cyclones. Furthermore, it was found that a higher proportion of east Atlantic cyclones are type C cyclones with strong upper-level forcing but weak low-level forcing suggesting that latent energy plays a more important role in their intensification than for west Atlantic cyclones.

The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dacre, H.; Gray, S.

2009-04-01

Mid-latitude cyclones play a large role in determining the day-to-day weather conditions in western Europe through their associated wind and precipitation patterns. Thus, their typical spatial and evolution characteristics are of great interest to meteorologists, insurance and risk management companies. In this study a feature tracking algorithm is applied to a cyclone database produced using the Hewson-method of cyclone identification, based on low-level gradients of wet-bulb potential temperature, to produce a climatology of mid-latitude cyclones. The aim of this work is to compare the cyclone track and density statistics found in this study with previous climatologies. This method is found to compare well with other cyclone identification methods; the north Atlantic storm track is reproduced along with the major regions of genesis. Differences are attributed to cyclone lifetime and strength thresholds, dataset resolution and cyclone identification and tracking methods. Previous work on cyclone development has been largely limited to case studies as opposed to analysis of climatological data, and does not distinguish between the different stages of cyclone evolution. The cyclone database used in this study allows cyclone characteristics to be tracked throughout the cyclone lifecycle. This enables the evaluation of the characteristics of cyclone evolution for systems forming in different genesis regions and a calculation of the spatial distribution and evolution of these characteristics in composite cyclones. It was found that most of the cyclones that cross western Europe originate in the east Atlantic where the baroclinicity and sea surface temperature gradients are weak compared to the west Atlantic. East Atlantic cyclones also have higher low-level relative vorticity and lower mean sea level pressure at their genesis point than west Atlantic cyclones. This is consistent with the hypothesis that they are secondary cyclones developing on the trailing fronts of pre-existing 'parent' cyclones. Furthermore, it was found that a higher proportion of east Atlantic cyclones are type C cyclones with strong upper-level forcing but weak low-level forcing suggesting that latent energy plays a more important role in their intensification than for west Atlantic cyclones.

Warning Graphic Legend - Naval Oceanography Portal

Science.gov Websites

section Advanced Search... Sections Home Time Earth Orientation Astronomy Meteorology Oceanography Ice You The next radii represents 64 knot winds. Typhoon Back to top Time Labels Labels indicate the time of = universal time/Zulu Label Back to top Current Postion The current position is the black tropical cyclone

The role of microphysics in the development of mesoscale areas of high winds around occluded cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, T. P.; Knippertz, P.; Blyth, A.

2012-04-01

Extratropical cyclones are an integral part of the weather in north-western Europe and can be associated with heavy precipitation and strong winds. While synoptic-scale aspects of these storms are often satisfactorily forecast several days in advance, mesoscale features within these systems such as bands of heavy rain or localized wind maxima, which are often the cause of the most damaging effects, are significantly less well understood and predicted by operational forecasts. Accurate predictions of the location, timing and intensity of these features are, however, highly important for the mitigation of the adverse effects that they bring. This is one of the motivations for the UK consortium DIAMET (DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExtraTropical storms) that is focused on improving the understanding and predictability of these potentially damaging mesoscale features embedded within larger synoptic-scale extratropical storms. The project is based around a number of field campaigns using the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe146 research aircraft along with other remote and in-situ measurements. An overview of the project will be presented by Geraint Vaughan in this session. This study analyses the effects of microphysics on the mesoscale dynamics within extratropical storms, in particular the high wind areas around occluded fronts wrapped around the core of a matured cyclonic storm. It has been hypothesized that evaporation and melting of hydrometeors in this region can lead to downward momentum transport and thereby increase near-surface winds (sometimes referred to as sting jets). The main tool for this study is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. High-resolution simulations are run for several cases from the DIAMET field campaigns to examine how the development of strong winds around occluded fronts is affected by the microphysics. The model results using different microphysics schemes are compared with the observational data from the BAe146 aircraft and other sources such as wind profilers and radiosondes. In initial model simulations of a secondary frontal wave observed during the 2009 T-NAWDEX pilot flights, the microphysics in the parameterization scheme used has a large impact on the winds observed around the hook of the occlusion. The advanced double-moment Morrison and Thompson schemes show 12-hour mean 10m winds about 50% higher than the simpler WSM3 (WRF single moment) scheme in this area. These results suggest that ice processes could play an important role in the downward transport of momentum in this part of the cyclone. Further results from this and other cases from the field campaigns will be presented at the conference.

A Conceptual Model for Tropical Cyclone Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.

2014-12-01

The role of cumulus congestus (shallow and congestus convection) in tropical cyclone (TC) formation is examined in a high-resolution simulation of Tropical Cyclone Fay (2008). It is found that cumulus congestus plays a dominant role in moistening the lower to middle troposphere and spinning up the near-surface circulation before genesis, while deep convection plays a key role in moistening the upper troposphere and intensifying the cyclonic circulation over a deep layer. The transition from the tropical wave stage to the TC stage is marked by a substantial increase in net condensation and potential vorticity generation by deep convection in the inner wave pouch region. This study suggests that TC formation can be regarded as a two-stage process. The first stage is a gradual process of moisture preconditioning and the low-level spinup, in which cumulus congestus plays a dominant role. The second stage commences with the rapid development of deep convection in the inner pouch region after the air column is moistened sufficiently, whereupon the concentrated convective heating near the pouch center strengthens the transverse circulation and leads to the amplification of the cyclonic circulation over a deep layer. The rapid development of deep convection can be explained by the power-law increase of precipitation rate with column water vapor (CWV) above a critical value. The high CWV near the pouch center thus plays an important role in convective organization. It is also shown that cumulus congestus can effectively drive the low-level convergence and provides a direct and simple pathway for the development of the TC proto-vortex near the surface.

An Analysis of a Developing and Non-Developing Disturbance During the Predict Experiment

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-25

convection. As the wave propagates primarily westwards, the flow establishes dynamic flow boundaries (a Kelvin cat’s eye) that effectively trap moist...stability, the navy will need to be effective at anticipating the vast destruction caused by tropical cyclones. A thorough understanding of 6 genesis...the most current and innovative approaches for effective tasking, collection, process- ing, exploitation, and dissemination of tropical cyclone decision

Structural Changes and Convective Processes in Tropical Cyclones as Seen in Infrared and Water Vapor Satellite Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-10

tropical depression; yellow, a tropical storm ; red, a typhoon; and purple, an extratropical cyclone (after http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital- typhoon... storm (JTWC 2012). Tropical Storm Jelawat continued into the Sea of Japan, where it completed extratropical transition (JTWC 2012...including strong winds, storm surge, high waves, and heavy rainfall, threaten archipelagos, densely crowded coastlines, and naval forces ashore and

System for utilizing oil shale fines

DOEpatents

Harak, Arnold E.

1982-01-01

A system is provided for utilizing fines of carbonaceous materials such as particles or pieces of oil shale of about one-half inch or less diameter which are rejected for use in some conventional or prior surface retorting process, which obtains maximum utilization of the energy content of the fines and which produces a waste which is relatively inert and of a size to facilitate disposal. The system includes a cyclone retort (20) which pyrolyzes the fines in the presence of heated gaseous combustion products, the cyclone retort having a first outlet (30) through which vapors can exit that can be cooled to provide oil, and having a second outlet (32) through which spent shale fines are removed. A burner (36) connected to the spent shale outlet of the cyclone retort, burns the spent shale with air, to provide hot combustion products (24) that are carried back to the cyclone retort to supply gaseous combustion products utilized therein. The burner heats the spent shale to a temperature which forms a molten slag, and the molten slag is removed from the burner into a quencher (48) that suddenly cools the molten slag to form granules that are relatively inert and of a size that is convenient to handle for disposal in the ground or in industrial processes.

Design of A Cyclone Separator Using Approximation Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sin, Bong-Su; Choi, Ji-Won; Lee, Kwon-Hee

2017-12-01

A Separator is a device installed in industrial applications to separate mixed objects. The separator of interest in this research is a cyclone type, which is used to separate a steam-brine mixture in a geothermal plant. The most important performance of the cyclone separator is the collection efficiency. The collection efficiency in this study is predicted by performing the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) analysis. This research defines six shape design variables to maximize the collection efficiency. Thus, the collection efficiency is set up as the objective function in optimization process. Since the CFD analysis requires a lot of calculation time, it is impossible to obtain the optimal solution by linking the gradient-based optimization algorithm. Thus, two approximation methods are introduced to obtain an optimum design. In this process, an L18 orthogonal array is adopted as a DOE method, and kriging interpolation method is adopted to generate the metamodel for the collection efficiency. Based on the 18 analysis results, the relative importance of each variable to the collection efficiency is obtained through the ANOVA (analysis of variance). The final design is suggested considering the results obtained from two optimization methods. The fluid flow analysis of the cyclone separator is conducted by using the commercial CFD software, ANSYS-CFX.

Wind driven nutrient and subsurface chlorophyll-a enhancement in the Bay of La Paz, Gulf of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coria-Monter, Erik; Monreal-Gómez, María Adela; Salas de León, David Alberto; Durán-Campos, Elizabeth; Merino-Ibarra, Martín

2017-09-01

Nutrient and chlorophyll-a distributions in the Bay of La Paz, Gulf of California, Mexico were analyzed during the late spring of 2004 to assess their relations to hydrography and circulation patterns. The results show the presence of both Gulf of California Water and Subtropical Subsurface Water. Water circulation was dominated by wind stress driven cyclonic circulation along f / H contours (f is planetary vorticity and H is depth), and upwelling resulting from the divergence shows a vertical velocity of ∼0.4 m d-1. Nutrient concentrations were higher in the center of the cyclonic pattern, where a rise in the nutricline contributed nutrients to the euphotic layer as a result of Ekman pumping. The vertical section showed the presence of a chlorophyll-a maximum at the thermocline shoaling to a depth of only 12 m. Along the surface, two peaks of chlorophyll-a were observed, one at Boca Grande and another off San Juan de la Costa, associated with upwelling and mixing derived from current interactions with abrupt topographies. The chlorophyll-a maximum increased from 0.8 mg m-3 in the external part of the cyclonic pattern to 2.0 mg m-3 in its center. The vertically integrated chlorophyll-a concentrations followed a similar pattern, rising from 10 to 20 mg m-2 and reaching their highest values in the center of the cyclonic circulation pattern. A schematic model was developed to describe processes that occur in late spring: the wind stress driven cyclonic structure promotes upward nutrient flux, which in turn drives an enhancement of chlorophyll-a. Upwelling was found to be the main mechanism of fertilization responsible for the enhancement of productivity levels by means of nutrient transport into the euphotic zone during spring. Other chlorophyll enhancement areas point to the occurrence of additional fertilization processes that may derive from interactions between cyclonic circulation patterns and the topography off of San Juan de la Costa, where phosphate mining occurs.

Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a High-Resolution Model: Sensitivity to Large-Scale Boundary Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Anil; Done, James; Dudhia, Jimy; Niyogi, Dev

2011-01-01

The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for which this model was developed and tested. Several experiments were conducted to understand the possible contributing factors that affected Sidr s intensity and track simulation by varying the initial start time and domain size. Results show that Sidr s track was strongly controlled by the synoptic flow at the 500-hPa level, seen especially due to the strong mid-latitude westerly over north-central India. A 96-h forecast produced westerly winds over north-central India at the 500-hPa level that were notably weaker; this likely caused the modeled cyclone track to drift from the observed actual track. Reducing the model domain size reduced model error in the synoptic-scale winds at 500 hPa and produced an improved cyclone track. Specifically, the cyclone track appeared to be sensitive to the upstream synoptic flow, and was, therefore, sensitive to the location of the western boundary of the domain. However, cyclone intensity remained largely unaffected by this synoptic wind error at the 500-hPa level. Comparison of the high resolution, moving nested domain with a single coarser resolution domain showed little difference in tracks, but resulted in significantly different intensities. Experiments on the domain size with regard to the total precipitation simulated by the model showed that precipitation patterns and 10-m surface winds were also different. This was mainly due to the mid-latitude westerly flow across the west side of the model domain. The analysis also suggested that the total precipitation pattern and track was unchanged when the domain was extended toward the east, north, and south. Furthermore, this highlights our conclusion that Sidr was influenced from the west side of the domain. The displacement error was significantly reduced after the domain size from the western model boundary was decreased. Study results demonstrate the capability and need of a high-resolution mesoscale modeling framework for simulating the complex interactions that contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region

Diabatic modification of potential vorticity in extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chagnon, J.

2012-12-01

Representation of diabatic processes and their impact on extratropical cyclones is a likely source of skill degradation in operational numerical weather prediction systems. This investigation examines the source, structure, and magnitude of diabatic potential vorticity (PV) anomalies generated by small-scale and parameterized processes in both mesoscale and global model simulations of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. Simulations of several cold season extratropical storms have been performed using the Met Office Unified Model. Several cases simulated were drawn from the DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExTratropical cyclones (DIAMET) observational campaign during which the National Environmental Research Council (NERC) Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurement (FAAM) BAE-146 aircraft was deployed. The influence of specific modelled processes was quantified using a set of tracers, each of which represents a history of the PV contributed by a specific segment of the model (e.g., boundary-layer scheme, cloud microphysics, convection scheme , radiation, etc.). This presentation will highlight several differences and similarities in high and low resolution simulations. For example, in high resolution simulations, tropopause folds are sharpened by a tripolar PV anomaly arising from the convection, boundary-layer, and microphysics schemes; this structure is not present in coarser global model simulations. However, a dipole of PV straddling the tropopause is diagnosed in both coarse- and fine-resolution simulations. The PV dipole, which is strongly influenced by long-wave radiative cooling, increases the gradient of PV near the tropopause and therefore modifies the characteristics Rossby wave propagation and moist baroclinic wave growth.

The President's Day cyclone 17-19 February 1979: An analysis of jet streak interactions prior to cyclogenesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Uccellini, L. W.; Kocin, P. J.; Walsh, C. H.

1981-01-01

The President's Day cyclone, produced record breaking snowfall along the East Coast of the United States in February 1979. Conventional radiosonde data, SMS GOES infrared imagery and LFM 2 model diagnostics were used to analyze the interaction of upper and lower tropospheric jet streaks prior to cyclogenesis. The analysis reveals that a series of complex scale interactive processes is responsible for the development of the intense cyclone. The evolution of the subsynoptic scale mass and momentum fields prior to and during the period of rapid development of the President's Day cyclone utilizing conventional data and SMS GOES imagery is documented. The interaction between upper and lower tropospheric jet streaks which occurred prior to the onset of cyclogenesis is discussed as well as the possible effects of terrain modified airflow within the precyclogenesis environment. Possible deficiencies in the LFM-2 initial wind fields that could have been responsible, in part, for the poor numerical forecast are examined.

Cyclone: java-based querying and computing with Pathway/Genome databases.

PubMed

Le Fèvre, François; Smidtas, Serge; Schächter, Vincent

2007-05-15

Cyclone aims at facilitating the use of BioCyc, a collection of Pathway/Genome Databases (PGDBs). Cyclone provides a fully extensible Java Object API to analyze and visualize these data. Cyclone can read and write PGDBs, and can write its own data in the CycloneML format. This format is automatically generated from the BioCyc ontology by Cyclone itself, ensuring continued compatibility. Cyclone objects can also be stored in a relational database CycloneDB. Queries can be written in SQL, and in an intuitive and concise object-oriented query language, Hibernate Query Language (HQL). In addition, Cyclone interfaces easily with Java software including the Eclipse IDE for HQL edition, the Jung API for graph algorithms or Cytoscape for graph visualization. Cyclone is freely available under an open source license at: http://sourceforge.net/projects/nemo-cyclone. For download and installation instructions, tutorials, use cases and examples, see http://nemo-cyclone.sourceforge.net.

Assessing the influence of climate change on flooding hazards following tropical cyclone events in the Southeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Monica Helen

Recent tropical cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, have been some of the worst the United States has experienced. Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify, bringing about 20% more precipitation, in the near future in response to global climate warming. Further, global climate warming may extend the hurricane season. This study focuses on four major river basins (Neches, Pearl, Mobile, and Roanoke) in the Southeast United States that are frequently impacted by tropical cyclones. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model flow along these rivers from 1998-2014 with 20% more precipitation during tropical cyclones. The results of this study show that an increase in tropical cyclone precipitation due to future climate change may increase peak flows at the mouths of these Southeast rivers by ˜7-18%. Most tropical cyclones that impact these river basins occur during the low discharge season, and thus rarely produce flooding conditions at their mouths. An extension of the current hurricane season of June-November, due to global climate warming, could encroach upon the wet season in these basins and lead to increased flooding. On average, this analysis shows that an extension of the hurricane season to May-December increased flooding susceptibility by 63% for the rivers analyzed in this study. That is, 4-6 more days per year likely would have been above bankfull discharge if an average tropical cyclone had occurred any day (based on 1998-2014 data) in the months May-December than in the current hurricane season months of June-November. More research is needed on the mechanisms and processes involved in the water balance of the four rivers analyzed in this study, and others in the Southeast United States, and how this is likely to change in the near future with global climate warming.

South-Eastern Bay of Biscay eddy-induced anomalies and their effect on chlorophyll distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caballero, Ainhoa; Rubio, Anna; Ruiz, Simón; Le Cann, Bernard; Testor, Pierre; Mader, Julien; Hernández, Carlos

2016-10-01

The analysis of deep-water glider hydrographic and fluorescence data, together with satellite measurements provides a new insight into eddy-induced anomalies within the South-Eastern Bay of Biscay, during summer. Two cyclonic eddies and a SWODDY have been observed in different glider transects and by means of different sources of satellite data. Vertical profiles reveal complex structures (characteristic of the second baroclinic mode): upward/downward displacement of the seasonal/permanent thermocline in the case of X13 and the opposite thermocline displacements in the case of the cyclones. This is a typical behaviour of mode-water and "cyclonic thinny" eddies. A qualitative analysis of the vertical velocities in the anticyclone indicates that though geostrophy dominates the main water column, depressing the isopycnals, near the sea-surface the eddy-wind interaction affects the vertical currents, favouring Ekman pumping and upwelling. The analysis of the Θ-S properties corroborates that inside cyclones and between the 26 and 27 isopycnals, net downwelling occurs. These two types of intra-thermocline lenses appear to deeply impact the Chl-a fluorescence profiles, since the maximum Chl-a fluorescence is located just below the seasonal thermocline. The mean Chl-a fluorescence was higher in the anticyclone than within the cyclones and the mean for the entire study period; the highest values were observed in the centre of the anticyclone. These results are in agreement with previous findings concerning the SWODDY F90 and surrounding cyclones, located in the South-Western Bay of Biscay. Significant differences in the Θ-S properties of the two cyclonic mesoscale structures have been observed: higher temperatures and lower salinity in the easternmost cyclone. Finally, time variation of the salinity content of the shallowest water masses of the anticyclone (salinity decreasing over time), probably indicates advective mixing processes occurred during the mission.

On the dynamics of synoptic scale cyclones associated with flood events in Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flocas, Helena; Katavoutas, George; Tsanis, Ioannis; Iordanidou, Vasiliki

2015-04-01

Flood events in the Mediterranean are frequently linked to synoptic scale cyclones, although topographical or anthropogenic factors can play important role. The knowledge of the vertical profile and dynamics of these cyclones can serve as a reliable early flood warning system that can further help in hazard mitigation and risk management planning. Crete is the second largest island in the eastern Mediterranean region, being characterized by high precipitation amounts during winter, frequently causing flood events. The objective of this study is to examine the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms at the upper and lower levels responsible for the generation of these events, according to their origin domain. The flooding events were recorded for a period of almost 20 years. The surface cyclones are identified with the aid of MS scheme that was appropriately modified and extensively employed in the Mediterranean region in previous studies. Then, the software VTS, specially developed for the Mediterranean cyclones, was employed to investigate the vertical extension, slope and dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the surface cyclones. Composite maps of dynamic/thermodynamic parameters, such as potential vorticity, temperature advection, divergence, surface fluxes were then constructed before and during the time of the flood. The dataset includes 6-hourly surface and isobaric analyses on a 0.5° x 0.5° regular latitude-longitude grid, as derived from the ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis of the ECMWF. It was found that cyclones associated with flood events in Crete mainly generate over northern Africa or southern eastern Mediterranean region and experience their minimum pressure over Crete or southwestern Greece. About 84% of the cyclones extend up to 500hPa, demonstrating that they are well vertically well-organized systems. The vast majority (almost 84%) of the surface cyclones attains their minimum pressure when their 500 hpa counterparts are located in the NW or SW, confirming that baroclinicity is one of the most important driving mechanisms for the cyclonic deepening over the examined region. The upper level dynamics acting well before the event and the low level diabatic processes over the Aegean or the Levantine sea contribute to the large amounts of precipitation. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the "ARISTEIA II" Action ("REINFORCE" program) of the "Operational Education and Life Long Learning programme" and is co-funded by the European Social Fund (ESF) and National Resources.

Field theoretical prediction of a property of the tropical cyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spineanu, F.; Vlad, M.

2014-01-01

The large scale atmospheric vortices (tropical cyclones, tornadoes) are complex physical systems combining thermodynamics and fluid-mechanical processes. The late phase of the evolution towards stationarity consists of the vorticity concentration, a well known tendency to self-organization , an universal property of the two-dimensional fluids. It may then be expected that the stationary state of the tropical cyclone has the same nature as the vortices of many other systems in nature: ideal (Euler) fluids, superconductors, Bose-Einsetin condensate, cosmic strings, etc. Indeed it was found that there is a description of the atmospheric vortex in terms of a classical field theory. It is compatible with the more conventional treatment based on conservation laws, but the field theoretical model reveals properties that are almost inaccessible to the conventional formulation: it identifies the stationary states as being close to self-duality. This is of highest importance: the self-duality is known to be the origin of all coherent structures known in natural systems. Therefore the field theoretical (FT) formulation finds that the cuasi-coherent form of the atmospheric vortex (tropical cyclone) at stationarity is an expression of this particular property. In the present work we examine a strong property of the tropical cyclone, which arises in the FT formulation in a natural way: the equality of the masses of the particles associated to the matter field and respectively to the gauge field in the FT model is translated into the equality between the maximum radial extension of the tropical cyclone and the Rossby radius. For the cases where the FT model is a good approximation we calculate characteristic quantities of the tropical cyclone and find good comparison with observational data.

Fuel for cyclones: The water vapor budget of a hurricane as dependent on its movement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarieva, Anastassia M.; Gorshkov, Victor G.; Nefiodov, Andrei V.; Chikunov, Alexander V.; Sheil, Douglas; Nobre, Antonio Donato; Li, Bai-Lian

2017-09-01

Despite the dangers associated with tropical cyclones and their rainfall, the origin of the moisture in these storms, which include destructive hurricanes and typhoons, remains surprisingly uncertain. Existing studies have focused on the region 40-400 km from a cyclone's center. It is known that the rainfall within this area cannot be explained by local processes alone but requires imported moisture. Nonetheless, the dynamics of this imported moisture appears unknown. Here, considering a region up to three thousand kilometers from cyclone center, we analyze precipitation, atmospheric moisture and movement velocities for severe tropical cyclones - North Atlantic hurricanes. Our findings indicate that even over such large areas a hurricane's rainfall cannot be accounted for by concurrent evaporation. We propose instead that a hurricane consumes pre-existing atmospheric water vapor as it moves. The propagation velocity of the cyclone, i.e. the difference between its movement velocity and the mean velocity of the surrounding air (steering flow), determines the water vapor budget. Water vapor available to the hurricane through its movement makes the hurricane self-sufficient at about 700 km from the hurricane center obviating the need to concentrate moisture from greater distances. Such hurricanes leave a dry wake, whereby rainfall is suppressed by up to 40% compared to the local long-term mean. The inner radius of this dry footprint approximately coincides with the hurricane's radius of water self-sufficiency. We discuss how Carnot efficiency considerations do not constrain the power of such open systems. Our findings emphasize the incompletely understood role and importance of atmospheric moisture stocks and dynamics in the behavior of severe tropical cyclones.

Fatty acid profiles of phyllosoma larvae of western rock lobster (Panulirus cygnus) in cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies of the Leeuwin Current off Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; O'Rorke, R.; Waite, A. M.; Beckley, L. E.; Thompson, P.; Jeffs, A. G.

2014-03-01

The recent dramatic decline in settlement in the population of the spiny lobster, Panulirus cygnus, may be due to changes in the oceanographic processes that operate offshore of Western Australia. It has been suggested that this decline could be related to poor nutritional condition of the post-larvae, especially lipid which is accumulated in large quantities during the preceding extensive pelagic larval stage. The current study focused on investigations into the lipid content and fatty acid (FA) profiles of lobster phyllosoma larvae from three mid to late stages of larval development (stages VI, VII, VIII) sampled from two cyclonic and two anticyclonic eddies of the Leeuwin Current off Western Australia. The results showed significant accumulation of lipid and energy storage FAs with larval development regardless of location of capture, however, larvae from cyclonic eddies had more lipid and FAs associated with energy storage than larvae from anticyclonic eddies. FA food chain markers from the larvae indicated significant differences in the food webs operating in the two types of eddy, with a higher level of FA markers for production from flagellates and a lower level from copepod grazing in cyclonic versus anticyclonic eddies. The results indicate that the microbial food web operating in cyclonic eddies provides better feeding conditions for lobster larvae despite anticyclonic eddies being generally more productive and containing greater abundances of zooplankton as potential prey for lobster larvae. Gelatinous zooplankton, such as siphonophores, may play an important role in cyclonic eddies by accumulating dispersed microbial nutrients and making them available as larger prey for phyllosoma. The markedly superior nutritional condition of lobster larvae feeding in the microbial food web found in cyclonic eddies, could greatly influence their subsequent settlement and recruitment to the coastal fishery.

Influence of basin-scale and mesoscale physical processes on biological productivity in the Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muraleedharan, K. R.; Jasmine, P.; Achuthankutty, C. T.; Revichandran, C.; Dinesh Kumar, P. K.; Anand, P.; Rejomon, G.

2007-03-01

Physical forcing plays a major role in determining biological processes in the ocean across the full spectrum of spatial and temporal scales. Variability of biological production in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) based on basin-scale and mesoscale physical processes is presented using hydrographic data collected during the peak summer monsoon in July-August, 2003. Three different and spatially varying physical processes were identified in the upper 300 m: (I) anticyclonic warm gyre offshore in the southern Bay; (II) a cyclonic eddy in the northern Bay; and (III) an upwelling region adjacent to the southern coast. In the warm gyre (>28.8 °C), the low salinity (33.5) surface waters contained low concentrations of nutrients. These warm surface waters extended below the euphotic zone, which resulted in an oligotrophic environment with low surface chlorophyll a (0.12 mg m -3), low surface primary production (2.55 mg C m -3 day -1) and low zooplankton biovolume (0.14 ml m -3). In the cyclonic eddy, the elevated isopycnals raised the nutricline upto the surface (NO 3-N > 8.2 μM, PO 4-P > 0.8 μM, SiO 4-Si > 3.5 μM). Despite the system being highly eutrophic, response in the biological activity was low. In the upwelling zone, although the nutrient concentrations were lower compared to the cyclonic eddy, the surface phytoplankton biomass and production were high (Chl a - 0.25 mg m -3, PP - 9.23 mg C m -3 day -1), and mesozooplankton biovolume (1.12 ml m -3) was rich. Normally in oligotrophic, open ocean ecosystems, primary production is based on ‘regenerated’ nutrients, but during episodic events like eddies the ‘production’ switches over to ‘new production’. The switching over from ‘regenerated production’ to ‘new production’ in the open ocean (cyclonic eddy) and establishment of a new phytoplankton community will take longer than in the coastal system (upwelling). Despite the functioning of a cyclonic eddy and upwelling being divergent (transporting of nutrients from deeper waters to surface), the utilization of nutrients leading to enhanced biological production and its transfer to upper trophic levels in the upwelling region imply that the energy transfer from primary production to secondary production (mesozooplankton) is more efficient than in the cyclonic eddy of the open ocean. The results suggest that basin-scale and mesoscale processes influence the abundance and spatial heterogeneity of plankton populations across a wide spatial scale in the BoB. The multifaceted effects of these physical processes on primary productivity thus play a prominent role in structuring of zooplankton communities and could consecutively affect the recruitment of pelagic fisheries.

How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

2017-09-01

The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

Impact of PBL and convection parameterization schemes for prediction of severe land-falling Bay of Bengal cyclones using WRF-ARW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, K. S.; Bhaskaran, Prasad K.

2017-12-01

This study evaluates the performance of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model for prediction of land-falling Bay of Bengal (BoB) tropical cyclones (TCs). Model integration was performed using two-way interactive double nested domains at 27 and 9 km resolutions. The present study comprises two major components. Firstly, the study explores the impact of five different planetary boundary layer (PBL) and six cumulus convection (CC) schemes on seven land-falling BoB TCs. A total of 85 numerical simulations were studied in detail, and the results signify that the model simulated better both the track and intensity by using a combination of Yonsei University (YSU) PBL and the old simplified Arakawa-Schubert CC scheme. Secondly, the study also investigated the model performance based on the best possible combinations of model physics on the real-time forecasts of four BoB cyclones (Phailin, Helen, Lehar, and Madi) that made landfall during 2013 based on another 15 numerical simulations. The predicted mean track error during 2013 was about 71 km, 114 km, 133 km, 148 km, and 130 km respectively from day-1 to day-5. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for Minimum Central Pressure (MCP) was about 6 hPa and the same noticed for Maximum Surface Wind (MSW) was about 4.5 m s-1 noticed during the entire simulation period. In addition the study also reveals that the predicted track errors during 2013 cyclones improved respectively by 43%, 44%, and 52% from day-1 to day-3 as compared to cyclones simulated during the period 2006-2011. The improvements noticed can be attributed due to relatively better quality data that was specified for the initial mean position error (about 48 km) during 2013. Overall the study signifies that the track and intensity forecast for 2013 cyclones using the specified combinations listed in the first part of this study performed relatively better than the other NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models, and thereby finds application in real-time forecast.

Atmospheric Rivers and Their Role in Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest U.S.

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

located in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones (warm conveyor belt) and can be characterized by strong winds (low level jet) and large water...the associated synoptic-scale extratropical cyclone and subsequent frontal processes of each planetary wave, resulting in narrow regions of moisture...normal falls during AR storms during the winter on the West Coast. During the summer, precipitation enhancements were not as significant (mostly due

Development of advanced technologies for biomass pyrolysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ran

The utilization of biomass resources as a renewable energy resource is of great importance in responding to concerns over the protection of the environment and the security of energy supply. This PhD research focuses on the investigation of the conversion of negative value biomass residues into value-added fuels through flash pyrolysis. Pyrolysis Process Study. A pilot plant bubbling fluidized bed pyrolyzer has been set up and extensively used to thermally crack various low or negative value agricultural, food and biofuel processing residues to investigate the yields and quality of the liquid [bio-oil] and solid (bio-char] products. Another novel aspect of this study is the establishment of an energy balance from which the thermal self-sustainability of the pyrolysis process can be assessed. Residues such as grape skins and mixture of grape skins and seeds, dried distiller's grains from bio-ethanol plants, sugarcane field residues (internal bagasse, external and whole plant) have been tested. The pyrolysis of each residue has been carried out at temperatures ranging from 300 to 600°C and at different vapor residence times, to determine its pyrolysis behavior including yields and the overall energy balance. The thermal sustainability of the pyrolysis process has been estimated by considering the energy contribution of the product gases and liquid bio-oll in relation to the pyrolysis heat requirements. The optimum pyrolysis conditions have been identified in terms of maximizing the liquid blo-oil yield, energy density and content of the product blo-oil, after ensuring a self-sustainable process by utilizing the product gases and part of char or bio-oil as heat sources. Adownflow pyrolyzer has also been set up. Preliminary tests have been conducted using much shorter residence times. Bio-oil Recovery. Bio-oil recovery from the pyrolysis unit includes condensation followed by demisting. A blo-oil cyclonic condensing system is designed A nearly tangential entry forces the entering vapors and gases to spin, providing good heat transfer and driving the condensed droplets to the wall through cyclonic action. This condenser design has been successfully demonstrated for the application on the pilot fluidized bed pyrolysis unit. After condensation, a stable aerosol is also typically formed which is difficult to be efficiently captured with conventional technologies. A pilot scale helicoidal rotary demister, a novel technology for removing persistent fine bio-oil droplets from gases using dynamic centrifugal forces, has been developed. The demister uses a helicoidal element, which consists of a metal sheet wound as a spiral, designed to rotate at high speeds within a cyclone body. Larger droplets are separated as they enter the cyclone housing, while the smaller droplets are carried by the gas into the helicoidal path of the rotating element, where they are centrifuged towards the outer collecting walls and, as a result of a specially designed baffle, may flow counter-currently to the gas and are drained out from the bottom of the rotating element. The mist-free gas leaves through a channel located at the center of the spiral. This unique demister design has demonstrated a high separation efficiency when tested offline with artificial submicron mist and tested online for demisting bio-oil aerosol on the pyrolysis unit. Bio-oil Upgrading: Very often, phase separation of bio-oil occurs naturally upon condensation of the bio-oil vapors, typically through the use of cyclonic condensers. The bio-oil is separated into an organic phase and an aqueous phase. Research has been conducted on the possibility to enhance the fuel properties and energy performance of the organic phase by reducing its water content, enhancing its heating value and improving its stability. Through the use of drying agents, a remarkable reduction of water content and an increase of heating value can be achieved. Moreover, the volumetric energy density can be greatly enhanced. Besides, the energy yield of the process has also been investigated. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Mathematical and experimental modelling of the dynamic bubble processes occurring in a two-phase cyclonic separation device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrage, Dean Stewart

1998-11-01

This dissertation presents a combined mathematical and experimental analysis of the fluid dynamics of a gas- liquid, dispersed-phase cyclonic separation device. The global objective of this research is to develop a simulation model of separation process in order to predict the void fraction field within a cyclonic separation device. The separation process is approximated by analyzing the dynamic motion of many single-bubbles, moving under the influence of the far-field, interacting with physical boundaries and other bubbles. The dynamic motion of the bubble is described by treating the bubble as a point-mass and writing an inertial force balance, equating the force applied to the bubble-point-location to the inertial acceleration of the bubble mass (also applied to the point-location). The forces which are applied to the bubble are determined by an integration of the surface pressure over the bubble. The surface pressure is coupled to the intrinsic motion of the bubble, and is very difficult to obtain exactly. However, under moderate Reynolds number, the wake trailing a bubble is small and the near-field flow field can be approximated as an inviscid flow field. Unconventional potential flow techniques are employed to solve for the surface pressure; the hydrodyamic forces are described as a hydrodynamic mass tensor operating on the bubble acceleration vector. The inviscid flow model is augmented with adjunct forces which describe: drag forces, dynamic lift, far-field pressure forces. The dynamic equations of motion are solved both analytically and numerically for the bubble trajectory in specific flow field examples. A validation of these equations is performed by comparing to an experimentally-derived trajectory of a single- bubble, which is released into a cylindrical Couette flow field (inner cylinder rotating) at varying positions. Finally, a simulation of a cyclonic separation device is performed by extending the single-bubble dynamic model to a multi-bubble ensemble. A simplified model is developed to predict the effects of bubble-interaction. The simulation qualitatively depicts the separation physics encountered in an actual cyclonic separation device, supporting the original tenet that the separation process can be approximated by the collective motions of single- bubbles.

Advanced Multi-Moment Microphysics for Precipitation and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Improvement within COAMPS

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-30

of predicting up to three moments (total number concentration, mass, and the 6th-moment reflectivity factor) of hydrometeor hydrometeor particle size...R. Novak, F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, J. J. Levit , C. B. Entwistle, T. Jensen, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, and R. S. Schneider, 2010: An overview

Advanced Multi-Moment Microphysics for Precipitation and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Improvement within COAMPS

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

capable of predicting up to three moments of hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSDs) inside the Navy’s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale...Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Du, D. R. Novak, F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, J. J. Levit , C. B. Entwistle, T. Jensen

The Role of Moist Processes in the Intrinsic Predictability of Indian Ocean Cyclones

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taraphdar, Sourav; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The role of moist processes and the possibility of error cascade from cloud scale processes affecting the intrinsic predictable time scale of a high resolution convection permitting model within the environment of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Indian region are investigated. Consistent with past studies of extra-tropical cyclones, it is demonstrated that moist processes play a major role in forecast error growth which may ultimately limit the intrinsic predictability of the TCs. Small errors in the initial conditions may grow rapidly and cascades from smaller scales to the larger scales through strong diabatic heating and nonlinearities associated with moist convection.more » Results from a suite of twin perturbation experiments for four tropical cyclones suggest that the error growth is significantly higher in cloud permitting simulation at 3.3 km resolutions compared to simulations at 3.3 km and 10 km resolution with parameterized convection. Convective parameterizations with prescribed convective time scales typically longer than the model time step allows the effects of microphysical tendencies to average out so convection responds to a smoother dynamical forcing. Without convective parameterizations, the finer-scale instabilities resolved at 3.3 km resolution and stronger vertical motion that results from the cloud microphysical parameterizations removing super-saturation at each model time step can ultimately feed the error growth in convection permitting simulations. This implies that careful considerations and/or improvements in cloud parameterizations are needed if numerical predictions are to be improved through increased model resolution. Rapid upscale error growth from convective scales may ultimately limit the intrinsic mesoscale predictability of the TCs, which further supports the needs for probabilistic forecasts of these events, even at the mesoscales.« less

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trzeciak, Tomasz M.; Knippertz, Peter; Owen, Jennifer S. R.

2014-05-01

Despite the enormous advances made in climate change research, robust projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic stormtrack are not yet possible. In particular with respect to damaging windstorms, this incertitude bears enormous risks to European societies and the (re)insurance industry. Previous studies have addressed the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data and found that there is large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. One weakness of such statistical evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model's basic state from the influence of fast processes on the development of the most intense storms. Compensating effects between the two might conceal errors and suggest higher reliability than there really is. A possible way to separate influences of fast and slow processes in climate projections is through a "seamless" approach of hindcasting historical, severe storms with climate models started from predefined initial conditions and run in a numerical weather prediction mode on the time scale of several days. Such a cost-effective case-study approach, which draws from and expands on the concepts from the Transpose-AMIP initiative, has recently been undertaken in the SEAMSEW project at the University of Leeds funded by the AXA Research Fund. Key results from this work focusing on 20 historical storms and using different lead times and horizontal and vertical resolutions include: (a) Tracks are represented reasonably well by most hindcasts. (b) Sensitivity to vertical resolution is low. (c) There is a systematic underprediction of cyclone depth for a coarse resolution of T63, but surprisingly no systematic bias is found for higher-resolution runs using T127, showing that climate models are in fact able to represent the storm dynamics well, if given the correct initial conditions. Combined with a too low number of deep cyclones in many climate models, this points too an insufficient number of storm-prone initial conditions in free-running climate runs. This question will be addressed in future work.

Extra-Tropical Cyclones at Climate Scales: Comparing Models to Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tselioudis, G.; Bauer, M.; Rossow, W.

2009-04-01

Climate is often defined as the accumulation of weather, and weather is not the concern of climate models. Justification for this latter sentiment has long been hidden behind coarse model resolutions and blunt validation tools based on climatological maps. The spatial-temporal resolutions of today's climate models and observations are converging onto meteorological scales, however, which means that with the correct tools we can test the largely unproven assumption that climate model weather is correct enough that its accumulation results in a robust climate simulation. Towards this effort we introduce a new tool for extracting detailed cyclone statistics from observations and climate model output. These include the usual cyclone characteristics (centers, tracks), but also adaptive cyclone-centric composites. We have created a novel dataset, the MAP Climatology of Mid-latitude Storminess (MCMS), which provides a detailed 6 hourly assessment of the areas under the influence of mid-latitude cyclones, using a search algorithm that delimits the boundaries of each system from the outer-most closed SLP contour. Using this we then extract composites of cloud, radiation, and precipitation properties from sources such as ISCCP and GPCP to create a large comparative dataset for climate model validation. A demonstration of the potential usefulness of these tools in process-based climate model evaluation studies will be shown.

Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment Along the Coast of Visakhapatnam, North-East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivek, G.; Grinivasa Kumar, T.

2016-08-01

The current study area is coastal zone of Visakhapatnam, district of Andhra Pradesh along the coast of India. This area is mostly vulnerable to many disasters such as storms, cyclone, flood, tsunami and erosion. This area is considered as cyclone prone area because of frequently occurrence of the cyclones in this area. Recently the two tropical cyclones that formed in the Bay of Bengal are Hudhud (October 13, 2014) and Phylin (October 11, 2013), has caused devastating impacts on the eastern coast and shows that the country has lack of preparedness to cyclone, storm surge and related natural hazards. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared here are a blended and combined overlay of multiple hazards those affecting the coastal zone. The present study aims to develop a methodology for coastal multi-hazard vulnerability assessment. This study carried out using parameters like probability of coastal slope, tsunami arrival height, future sea level rise, coastal erosion and tidal range. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared by overlaying of multi hazards those affecting the coastal zone. Multi-hazard vulnerability maps further reproduced as risk maps with the land use information. The decision making tools presented here can provide a useful information during the disaster for the evacuation process and to evolve a management strategy.

Characteristics of the internal and external sources of the Mediterranean synoptic cyclones for the period 1956-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Awad, Adel M.; Nazrul Islam, M.

2017-07-01

This paper investigates the main sources and features of the Mediterranean synoptic cyclones affecting the basin, using the cyclone tracks. The cyclones' tracks are identified using sea level pressure (SLP) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1956-2013. The identified cyclones are classified into two categories: basin affected and basin non-affected. Most of the basin-affected (non-affected) cyclones are internal (external), i.e., generated inside (outside) the Mediterranean basin. This study reveals four (five) main sources of internal (external) cyclones. These four (five) main sources generated about 63.76% (57.25%) of the internal (external) cyclones. Seasonal analysis shows that most of the basin-affected internal (external) cyclones were generated in the winter (spring) season. The lowest number of cyclones were found in the summer. Moreover, the synoptic study of the atmospheric systems accompanied the highest- and lowest-generated years demonstrates that the deepening of the north Europe cyclones and the relative positions of Azores- and Siberian-high systems represent the important factors that influence the number of internal cyclones. Essential factors influencing the external cyclones are the strength of the maximum upper wind, Azores high, Siberian high, and orientations of their ridges.

Cyclonic eddies identified in the Cape Basin of the South Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, C.; Lutjeharms, J. R. E.

2011-03-01

Inter-ocean exchange south of Africa takes place largely through the movement of Agulhas Rings into the Cape Basin. Recent observations have shown that the highly energetic flow field in this basin consists of anti-cyclonic rings as well as cyclonic eddies. Very little is known of the characteristics of the cyclonic eddies. Using altimetric data, this study determines the location, frequency and seasonality of these cyclonic eddies their size, trajectories, life spans and their association with Agulhas Rings. Cyclonic eddies were seen to split, merge and link with other cyclonic eddies, where splitting events created child cyclonic eddies. The 105 parent and 157 child cyclonic eddies identified over a decade show that on average 11 parent and 17 child cyclonic eddies appear annually in AVISO merged absolute dynamic topography data along the continental slope. Thirty-two percent follow an overall west south-westward direction, with 27% going west north-westward. Average translocation speeds are 2.2 ± 0.1 km/day for parent and 3.0 ± 0.2 km/day for child cyclonic eddies. Parent cyclonic eddy lifespan averaged 250 ± 18 days; whereas child cyclonic eddies survived for only 118 ± 11 days. A significant difference in lifespan for parent and child cyclonic eddies identified in the north and south region of the study area was detected. Seventy-seven percent of the northern and 93% of the southern cyclonic eddies were first detected directly adjacent to passing Agulhas Rings, suggesting a vital interaction between these mesoscale eddies within the region. Topographical features appeared to affect the behaviour and lifespan of these deep cyclonic eddies.

Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

A novel framework for objective detection and tracking of TC center from noisy satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Bibin; Thomas, Sachin; Rani, J. Sheeba

2018-07-01

This paper proposes a novel framework for automatically determining and tracking the center of a tropical cyclone (TC) during its entire life-cycle from the Thermal infrared (TIR) channel data of the geostationary satellite. The proposed method handles meteorological images with noise, missing or partial information due to the seasonal variability and lack of significant spatial or vortex features. To retrieve the cyclone center from these circumstances, a synergistic approach based on objective measures and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model is being proposed. This method employs a spatial gradient scheme to process missing and noisy frames or a spatio-temporal gradient scheme for image sequences that are continuous and contain less noise. The initial estimate of the TC center from the missing imagery is corrected by exploiting a NWP model based post-processing scheme. The validity of the framework is tested on Infrared images of different cyclones obtained from various Geostationary satellites such as the Meteosat-7, INSAT- 3 D , Kalpana-1 etc. The computed track is compared with the actual track data obtained from Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), and it shows a reduction of mean track error by 11 % as compared to the other state of the art methods in the presence of missing and noisy frames. The proposed method is also successfully tested for simultaneous retrieval of the TC center from images containing multiple non-overlapping cyclones.

An estimation of water origins in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone's center and associated dynamic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takakura, Toshinari; Kawamura, Ryuichi; Kawano, Tetsuya; Ichiyanagi, Kimpei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Yoshimura, Kei

2018-01-01

To clarify the time evolution of water origins in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone (TC)'s center, we have simulated Typhoon Man-yi (July 2007) in our case study, using an isotopic regional spectral model. The model results confirm that the replacement of water origins occurs successively as the TC develops and migrates northward over the western North Pacific. It is confirmed that, in this case, a significant proportion of total precipitable water around the cyclone center comes from external regions rather than the underlying ocean during the mature stage of a TC. Similar features can also be seen in the proportion of each oceanic origin to total condensation. Indian Ocean, South China Sea, and Maritime Continent water vapors begin to increase gradually at the developing stage and reach their peak at the decay stage when the TC approaches southwestern Japan. These remote ocean vapors are transported to the east of the cyclone via the moisture conveyor belt, a zone characterized by distinct low-level moisture flux that stretches from the Indian Ocean to the TC, and are further supplied into the inner region of the TC by inflow within the boundary layer associated with its secondary circulation. Since it takes time to undergo these two dynamic processes, the delayed influence of remote ocean vapors on the TC appears to become evident during the mature stage.

Statistical characteristics of austral summer cyclones in Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Na; Fu, Gang; Kuo, Ying-Hwa

2012-06-01

Characteristics of cyclones and explosively developing cyclones (or `bombs') over the Southern Ocean in austral summer (December, January and February) from 2004 to 2008 are analyzed by using the Final Analysis (FNL) data produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the United States. Statistical results show that both cyclones and explosively developing cyclones frequently develop in January, and most of them occur within the latitudinal zone between 55°S and 70°S. These cyclones gradually approach the Antarctic Continent from December to February. Generally cyclones and bombs move east-southeastward with some exceptions of northeastward movement. The lifetime of cyclones is around 2-6 d, and the horizontal scale is about 1000 km. Explosive cyclones have the lifetime of about 1 week with the horizontal scale reaching up to 3000 km. Compared with cyclones developed in the Northern Hemisphere, cyclones over the southern ocean have much higher occurrence frequency, lower central pressure and larger horizontal scale, which may be caused by the unique geographical features of the Southern Hemisphere.

Earth Observations taken by the Expedition 27 Crew

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-03-20

ISS027-E-006501 (20 March 2011) --- A low pressure system in the eastern North Pacific Ocean is featured in this image photographed by an Expedition 27 crew member in the Cupola of the International Space Station. This vigorous low pressure system has started to occlude?a process associated with separation of warm air from the cyclone?s center at the Earth?s surface. This view shows the arc of strong convection beyond the center of the low pressure, formed as the low occludes when the cold front overtakes the warm front. This occurs around more mature low pressure areas, later in the process of the system?s life-cycle.

The Dynamics of Cuba Anticyclones (CubANs) and Interaction With the Loop Current/Florida Current System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kourafalou, Vassiliki; Androulidakis, Yannis; Le Hénaff, Matthieu; Kang, HeeSook

2017-10-01

Mesoscale anticyclonic eddies along the northern Cuban coast (CubANs) have been identified in the Straits of Florida, associated with the northward shift of the Florida Current (FC) and the anticyclonic curvature of the Loop Current (LC) at the western entrance of the Straits. The dynamics of CubAN eddies and their interaction with the LC/FC system are described for the first time using satellite, drifter and buoy data, and a high-resolution model. It is shown that the evolution of CubANs to the south of the FC front complements the evolution of cyclonic eddies to the north of the FC, advancing previous studies on synergy between FC meandering and eddy activity. Two types of CubAN eddies are characterized: (a) a main anticyclonic cell (type "A") within the core of the LC during retracted phase conditions, associated with the process of LC Eddy (LCE) shedding from an extended LC, and (b) an individual, distinct anticyclonic eddy that is released from the main LC core and is advected eastward, along the northern Cuban coast (type "B"). There are also mixed cases, when the process of LCE shedding has started, so a type "A" CubAN is being formed, in the presence of one or more eastward progressing type "B" eddies. CubAN evolution is associated with an increased mixed layer and weaker stratification of the upper ocean along the eddy's track. The cyclonic activity along the Cuban coast and wind-induced upwelling events also contribute to the evolution and fate of the CubAN eddies.

Natural disaster management in India with focus on floods and cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thattai, Deeptha V.; Sathyanathan, R.; Dinesh, R.; Harshit Kumar, L.

2017-07-01

Disasters are of two major kinds, natural and manmade, and affect the community. Natural disasters are caused by natural earth processes like floods, droughts, cyclones, tsunamis, earthquakes and epidemics. Manmade disasters occur due to chemical spills, accidents, terrorism activities etc. India is prone to almost all the major natural disasters. The high population density combined with poor preparedness, planning and management, and rescue and relief measures inevitably lead to huge losses of lives and property every year in the country. This paper analyses the disaster management policy of India and its implementation using two recent case studies - one where a relative degree of success has been achieved (cyclones) and the other where we are still struggling to have even a basic preparedness system in place (floods).

Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

PubMed Central

Tuluri, Francis; Reddy, R. Suseela; Anjaneyulu, Y.; Colonias, John; Tchounwou, Paul

2010-01-01

Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes. PMID:20623002

Clarifying the Dynamics of the General Circulation: Phillips's 1956 Experiment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, John M.

1998-01-01

In the mid-1950s, amid heated debate over the physical mechanisms that controlled the known features of the atmosphere's general circulation, Norman Phillips simulated hemispheric motion on the high-speed computer at the Institute for Advanced Study. A simple energetically consistent model was integrated for a simulated time of approximately 1 month. Analysis of the model results clarified the respective roles of the synoptic-scale eddies (cyclones-anticyclones) and mean meridional circulation in the maintenance of the upper-level westerlies and the surface wind regimes. Furthermore, the modeled cyclones clearly linked surface frontogenesis with the upper-level Charney-Eady wave. In addition to discussing the model results in light of the controversy and ferment that surrounded general circulation theory in the 1940s-1950s, an effort is made to follow Phillips's scientific path to the experiment.

Automated Historical and Real-Time Cyclone Discovery With Multimodal Remote Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, S.; Talukder, A.; Liu, T.; Tang, W.; Bingham, A.

2008-12-01

Existing cyclone detection and tracking solutions involve extensive manual analysis of modeled-data and field campaign data by teams of experts. We have developed a novel automated global cyclone detection and tracking system by assimilating and sharing information from multiple remote satellites. This unprecedented solution of combining multiple remote satellite measurements in an autonomous manner allows leveraging off the strengths of each individual satellite. Use of multiple satellite data sources also results in significantly improved temporal tracking accuracy for cyclones. Our solution involves an automated feature extraction and machine learning technique based on an ensemble classifier and Kalman filter for cyclone detection and tracking from multiple heterogeneous satellite data sources. Our feature-based methodology that focuses on automated cyclone discovery is fundamentally different from, and actually complements, the well-known Dvorak technique for cyclone intensity estimation (that often relies on manual detection of cyclonic regions) from field and remote data. Our solution currently employs the QuikSCAT wind measurement and the merged level 3 TRMM precipitation data for automated cyclone discovery. Assimilation of other types of remote measurements is ongoing and planned in the near future. Experimental results of our automated solution on historical cyclone datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our automated approach compared to previous work. Performance of our detection solution compares favorably against the list of cyclones occurring in North Atlantic Ocean for the 2005 calendar year reported by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in our initial analysis. We have also demonstrated the robustness of our cyclone tracking methodology in other regions over the world by using multiple heterogeneous satellite data for detection and tracking of three arbitrary historical cyclones in other regions. Our cyclone detection and tracking methodology can be applied to (i) historical data to support Earth scientists in climate modeling, cyclonic-climate interactions, and obtain a better understanding of the cause and effects of cyclone (e.g. cyclo-genesis), and (ii) automatic cyclone discovery in near real-time using streaming satellite to support and improve the planning of global cyclone field campaigns. Additional satellite data from GOES and other orbiting satellites can be easily assimilated and integrated into our automated cyclone detection and tracking module to improve the temporal tracking accuracy of cyclones down to ½ hr and reduce the incidence of false alarms.

Structural Variability of Tropospheric Growth Factors Transforming Mid-latitude Cyclones to Severe Storms over the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2015-04-01

The development of European surface wind storms out of normal mid-latitude cyclones is substantially influenced by upstream tropospheric growth factors over the Northern Atlantic. The main factors include divergence and vorticity advection in the upper troposphere, latent heat release and the presence of instabilities of short baroclinic waves of suitable wave lengths. In this study we examine a subset of these potential growth factors and their related influences on the transformation of extra-tropical cyclones into severe damage prone surface storm systems. Previous studies have shown links between specific growth factors and surface wind storms related to extreme cyclones. In our study we investigate in further detail spatial and temporal variability patterns of these upstream processes at different vertical levels of the troposphere. The analyses will comprise of the three growth factors baroclinicity, latent heat release and upper tropospheric divergence. Our definition of surface wind storms is based on the Storm Severity Index (SSI) alongside a wind tracking algorithm identifying areas of exceedances of the local 98th percentile of the 10m wind speed. We also make use of a well-established extra-tropical cyclone identification and tracking algorithm. These cyclone tracks form the base for a composite analysis of the aforementioned growth factors using ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 - 2014 for the extended winter season (ONDJFM). Our composite analysis corroborates previous similar studies but extends them by using an impact based algorithm for the identification of strong wind systems. Based on this composite analysis we further identify variability patterns for each growth factor most important for the transformation of a cyclone into a surface wind storm. We thus also address the question whether the link between storm intensity and related growth factor anomaly taking into account its spatial variability is stable and can be quantified. While the robustness of our preliminary results is generally dependent on the growth factor investigated, some examples include i) the overall availability of latent heat seems to be less important than its spatial structure around the cyclone core and ii) the variability of upper-tropospheric baroclinicity appears to be highest north of the surface position of the cyclone, especially for those that transform into a surface storm.

An investigation of the Sutcliffe development theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dushan, J. D.

1973-01-01

Two case studies were used to test the Sutcliffe-Peterssen development theory for both cyclonic and anticyclonic development over the eastern United States. Each term was examined to determine when and where it made a significant contribution to the development process. Results indicate the advection of vorticity at the level of non-divergence exerts the dominant influence for initial cyclone development, and that the thermal terms (advection of thickness, stability, and diabatic influence) become important after development has begun. Anticyclonic development, however, depends primarily on the stability term throughout the life cycle of the anticyclone. Simple procedures for forecasting the development and movement of cyclones and anticyclones are listed. These rules indicate that routine National Meteorological Center analyses may be used to locate areas where the positive advection of 500-mb vorticity, indicative of cyclonic development, coincides with regions of severe weather activity. The development of anticyclones also is predicted easily. Regions of increasing stability, indicating anticyclonic development, may be located by use of National Meteorological Center radar summaries and analyses for 1000-500-mb thickness. A test of these techniques found them to be satisfactory for the case examined.

Drivers of shoreline change in atoll reef islands of the Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duvat, Virginie K. E.; Salvat, Bernard; Salmon, Camille

2017-11-01

This paper increases by around 30% the sample of atoll reef islands studied from a shoreline change perspective, and covers an under-studied geographical area, i.e. the French Tuamotu Archipelago. It brings new irrefutable evidences on the persistence of reef islands over the last decades, as 77% of the 111 study islands exhibited areal stability while 15% and 8% showed expansion and contraction, respectively. This paper also addresses a key research gap by interpreting the major local drivers controlling recent shoreline and island change, i.e. tropical cyclones and seasonal swells, sediment supply by coral reefs and human activities. The 1983 tropical cyclones had contrasting impacts, depending on the shoreline indicator considered. While they generally caused a marked retreat of the stability line, the base of the beach advanced at some locations, as a result of either sediment reworking or fresh sediment inputs. The post-cyclone fair weather period was characterised by reversed trends indicating island morphological readjustment. Cyclonic waves contributed to island upwards growth, which reached up to 1 m in places, through the transfer of sediments up onto the island surface. However, the steep outer slopes of atolls limited sediment transfers to the reef flat and island system. We found that 57% of the study islands are disturbed by human activities, including 'rural' and uninhabited islands. Twenty-six percent of these islands have lost the capacity to respond to ocean-climate related pressures, including the 'capital' islands concentrating atolls' population, infrastructures and economic activities, which is preoccupying under climate change.

Challenges associated with the prediction of tropical storms in the Bay of Bengal when using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machineni, N.; Veldore, V.; Mesquita, M. D. S.

2016-12-01

Accuracy in predicting tropical cyclones over low lying coastal regions is pivotal for understanding storm tracks and their subsequent impacts. The present study highlights the challenges in predicting the Bay of Bengal (BOB) cyclone "AILA" (during 23rd to 25th May 2009) using the Weather Research and Forecast model, Advanced research core module (WRF-ARW). The model configuration uses a two-way interactive nested domain with 10 km resolution over BOB. Its initial and boundary conditions are driven from the NCEP FNL operational global analysis data at every 6 hours. A total of 74 sensitivity experiments were conducted to test the following factors and levels: a) parametrization schemes: two microphysics and two cumulus physics schemes used to select appropriate combination over study region, b) model domain:including/excluding Himalayas, c) vertical resolution: eight various increasing/decreasing vertical levels have been carried out to evaluate the storm track dependencies on these factors, d) domain size: and increasing (decreasing) the grid points of model domain in east-west direction shows that approximately 50-100 km track difference for every two points. Our results show that, the experiments including the Himalayas provide a better representation of cyclone track and speed. In order to reduce the computational time required to do such tremendous amount of experiment, we hypothesize to use statistical tools of experimental design which can involve all the factors that determine the cyclone tracks. A proper experimental design might provide unbiased results and also we might need less number of experiments.

Challenges associated with the prediction of tropical storms in the Bay of Bengal when using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machineni, Nehru; Veldore, Vidyunmala; Mesquita, Michel d. S.

2017-04-01

Accuracy in predicting tropical cyclones over low lying coastal regions is pivotal for understanding storm tracks and their subsequent impacts. The present study highlights the challenges in predicting the Bay of Bengal (BOB) cyclone "AILA" (during 23rd to 25th May 2009) using the Weather Research and Forecast model, Advanced research core module (WRF-ARW). The model configuration uses a two-way interactive nested domain with 10 km resolution over BOB. Its initial and boundary conditions are driven from the NCEP FNL operational global analysis data at every 6 hours. A total of 74 sensitivity experiments were conducted to test the following factors and levels: a) parametrization schemes: two microphysics and two cumulus physics schemes used to select appropriate combination over study region, b) model domain:including/excluding Himalayas, c) vertical resolution: eight various increasing/decreasing vertical levels have been carried out to evaluate the storm track dependencies on these factors, d) domain size: and increasing (decreasing) the grid points of model domain in east-west direction shows that approximately 50-100 km track difference for every two points. Our results show that, the experiments including the Himalayas provide a better representation of cyclone track and speed. In order to reduce the computational time required to do such tremendous amount of experiment, we hypothesize to use statistical tools of experimental design which can involve all the factors that determine the cyclone tracks. A proper experimental design might provide unbiased results and also we might need less number of experiments.

Cyclone tolerance in new world arecaceae: biogeographic variation and abiotic natural selection.

PubMed

Griffith, M Patrick; Noblick, Larry R; Dowe, John L; Husby, Chad E; Calonje, Michael A

2008-10-01

Consistent abiotic factors can affect directional selection; cyclones are abiotic phenomena with near-discrete geographic limits. The current study investigates selective pressure of cyclones on plants at the species level, testing for possible natural selection. New World Arecaceae (palms) are used as a model system, as plants with monopodial, unbranched arborescent form are most directly affected by the selective pressure of wind load. Living specimens of known provenance grown at a common site were affected by the same cyclone. Data on percentage mortality were compiled and analysed in biogeographic and phylogenetic contexts. Palms of cyclone-prone provenance exhibited a much lower (one order of magnitude) range in cyclone tolerance, and significantly lower (P < 0.001) mean percentage mortality than collections from cyclone-free areas. Palms of cyclone-free provenance had much greater variation in tolerance, and significantly greater mean percentage mortality. A test for serial independence recovered no significant phylogenetic autocorrelation of percentage mortality. Variation in cyclone tolerance in New World Arecaceae correlates with biogeography, and is not confounded with phylogeny. These results suggest natural selection of cyclone tolerance in cyclone-prone areas.

Demonstration of coal reburning for cyclone boiler NO{sub x} control. Appendix, Book 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

Based on the industry need for a pilot-scale cyclone boiler simulator, Babcock Wilcox (B&W) designed, fabricated, and installed such a facility at its Alliance Research Center (ARC) in 1985. The project involved conversion of an existing pulverized coal-fired facility to be cyclone-firing capable. Additionally, convective section tube banks were installed in the upper furnace in order to simulate a typical boiler convection pass. The small boiler simulator (SBS) is designed to simulate most fireside aspects of full-size utility boilers such as combustion and flue gas emissions characteristics, fireside deposition, etc. Prior to the design of the pilot-scale cyclone boiler simulator,more » the various cyclone boiler types were reviewed in order to identify the inherent cyclone boiler design characteristics which are applicable to the majority of these boilers. The cyclone boiler characteristics that were reviewed include NO{sub x} emissions, furnace exit gas temperature (FEGT) carbon loss, and total furnace residence time. Previous pilot-scale cyclone-fired furnace experience identified the following concerns: (1) Operability of a small cyclone furnace (e.g., continuous slag tapping capability). (2) The optimum cyclone(s) configuration for the pilot-scale unit. (3) Compatibility of NO{sub x} levels, carbon burnout, cyclone ash carryover to the convection pass, cyclone temperature, furnace residence time, and FEGT.« less

Sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone size to microphysics schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Kelvin T. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

2016-09-01

The sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) size to microphysics schemes is studied using the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Six TCs during the 2013 western North Pacific typhoon season and three mainstream microphysics schemes-Ferrier (FER), WRF Single-Moment 5-class (WSM5) and WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6)-are investigated. The results consistently show that the simulated TC track is not sensitive to the choice of microphysics scheme in the early simulation, especially in the open ocean. However, the sensitivity is much greater for TC intensity and inner-core size. The TC intensity and size simulated using the WSM5 and WSM6 schemes are respectively higher and larger than those using the FER scheme in general, which likely results from more diabatic heating being generated outside the eyewall in rainbands. More diabatic heating in rainbands gives higher inflow in the lower troposphere and higher outflow in the upper troposphere, with higher upward motion outside the eyewall. The lower-tropospheric inflow would transport absolute angular momentum inward to spin up tangential wind predominantly near the eyewall, leading to the increment in TC intensity and size (the inner-core size, especially). In addition, the inclusion of graupel microphysics processes (as in WSM6) may not have a significant impact on the simulation of TC track, intensity and size.

The Role of the Stratosphere in Explosive Deepening of Extratropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knippertz, Peter; Wilbraham, Robert; Trzeciak, Tomek; Owen, Jenny; Odell, Luke; Fink, Andreas H.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2014-05-01

Using a combination of an automatic cyclone tracking method and a special version of the classical pressure tendency equation (PTE), changes in surface core pressure of extra-tropical cyclones can be related to contributions from horizontal temperature advection, vertical motion and diabatic processes, i.e. mainly latent heat release in clouds. Here, the PTE is evaluated in 3°x3° boxes located over the cyclone positions at 6-hourly basis, thus following the movement of a given storm at each time step. PTE calculations are performed from the surface to 100 hPa. Previous work has shown that this approach can be used to quantify the contribution of diabatic processes to cyclone deepening in an automated way, and can easily be applied to large gridded datasets, in this case ERA-Interim reanalyses. In order to close the mass budget in the PTE, geopotential height tendencies at the upper integration boundary (usually 100 hPa) need to be taken into account. Older studies have assumed this term to be negligible, and this has been confirmed with modern re-analysis data for many explosively deepening storms. However, some historical storms show a remarkable contribution from this term, indicating a substantial warming of the levels above 100hPa. An outstanding example is the Braer Storm of January 1993, which reached a record minimum core pressure of 914 hPa near Iceland. A stepwise increase of the upper integration boundary reveals that substantial geopotential height tendencies reach above 1 hPa. This unusual behaviour appears to be related to the propagation of a deep planetary wave trough from North America towards the North Atlantic basin. A similar but somewhat less dramatic behaviour was found for cyclone Wiebke. Another interesting example is storm Emma, which managed to sustain substantial deepening rates despite adverse positive geopotential height tendencies at 100 hPa. Future work will include a more robust statistical analysis of this problem and a better understanding of the nature and physical mechanism of the stratospheric influence on explosive cyclogenesis.

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trzeciak, Tomasz M.; Knippertz, Peter; Pirret, Jennifer S. R.; Williams, Keith D.

2016-06-01

Cyclonic windstorms are one of the most important natural hazards for Europe, but robust climate projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic storm track are not yet possible, bearing significant risks to European societies and the (re)insurance industry. Previous studies addressing the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data show large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. One weakness of such evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model's basic state from the influence of fast processes on the development of the most intense storms, which could create compensating effects and therefore suggest higher reliability than there really is. This work aims to shed new light into this problem through a cost-effective "seamless" approach of hindcasting 20 historical severe storms with the two global climate models, ECHAM6 and GA4 configuration of the Met Office Unified Model, run in a numerical weather prediction mode using different lead times, and horizontal and vertical resolutions. These runs are then compared to re-analysis data. The main conclusions from this work are: (a) objectively identified cyclone tracks are represented satisfactorily by most hindcasts; (b) sensitivity to vertical resolution is low; (c) cyclone depth is systematically under-predicted for a coarse resolution of T63 by both climate models; (d) no systematic bias is found for the higher resolution of T127 out to about three days, demonstrating that climate models are in fact able to represent the complex dynamics of explosively deepening cyclones well, if given the correct initial conditions; (e) an analysis using a recently developed diagnostic tool based on the surface pressure tendency equation points to too weak diabatic processes, mainly latent heating, as the main source for the under-prediction in the coarse-resolution runs. Finally, an interesting implication of these results is that the too low number of deep cyclones in many free-running climate simulations may therefore be related to an insufficient number of storm-prone initial conditions. This question will be addressed in future work.

From baroclinic to barotropic: the evolution of Medicane Cornelia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazza, Edoardo; Ulbrich, Uwe; Klein, Rupert

2015-04-01

The Mediterranean Basin is a very cyclogenetic area with more than 100 cyclones developing on average every year, most of which evolve as baroclinic, mid-latitude disturbances. There is, however, a restricted group of cyclones that acquire barotropic characteristics during their development. Given their similarities with hurricanes they are generally referred to as "medicanes". They can be associated with severe wind gusts and intense rainfall and represent a serious threat to coastal areas. Medicane Cornelia (6-10 October 1996) formed in the western Mediterranean Sea, under the influence of a large, cut-off low in the upper levels located over the Iberian Peninsula. It is the longest-lived among the recorded medicanes. In this work, a domain shifting method is used to initialize full-physics ensemble simulations of Cornelia using COSMO-CLM. Different atmospheric states are obtained by integrating the model over domains that are shifted with respect to each other. This enables us to stress the relevance of dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms involved in the tropical transition of Cornelia. Cyclones in the ensemble exhibit significant differences both in their structures and in their temporal evolutions. A comparison of the ensemble members shows that medicanes develop from a baroclinic, frontal system, located to the east of the cut-off low, that undergoes warm seclusion. A first intensification stage occurs during the seclusion process, a second one takes place after the cyclones crossed Sardinia. Convection is known to be a crucial mechanism in the tropical transition process, both in terms of shear reduction and contribution to sea-level pressure fall via latent heat release. During warm seclusion, a bent-back occluded front develops and a pocket of warm air is secluded from the warm sector. Remarkable differences in the vertical motions are found along the developing bent-back front in each member. Cyclones that feature stronger bent-back fronts show more intense convection and larger diabatic heating, resulting in a faster sea-level pressure minimum deepening. The interaction of cyclones with the complex topography of Sardinia appears to be responsible for the differences in the second intensification stage.

Annual Tropical Cyclone Report, 1982.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-01-01

intensity forecast are made once each day by processed at AFGWC is recorded on-board applying the Dvorak technique (NOAA Technical the spacecraft as it...tropical cyclone. Season totals and the 700 mb pressure surface within the percentages are also indicated. vortex recorded in meters. 7 Z ;l__...16 TY GORDON 27 AUG - 5 SEP 10 39 100 944 2014 17 TS HOPE 4 SEP - 6 SEP 3 10 #0 979 630 18 TY IRVING 5 SEP - 16 SEP 12 44 90 952 1770 19 TY JUDY 5 SEP

TECA: A Parallel Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prabhat, Mr; Ruebel, Oliver; Byna, Surendra

2012-03-12

We present TECA, a parallel toolkit for detecting extreme events in large climate datasets. Modern climate datasets expose parallelism across a number of dimensions: spatial locations, timesteps and ensemble members. We design TECA to exploit these modes of parallelism and demonstrate a prototype implementation for detecting and tracking three classes of extreme events: tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers. We process a modern TB-sized CAM5 simulation dataset with TECA, and demonstrate good runtime performance for the three case studies.

Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones on the Great Barrier Reef and its ecological importance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolff, Nicholas H.; Wong, Aaron; Vitolo, Renato; Stolberg, Kristin; Anthony, Kenneth R. N.; Mumby, Peter J.

2016-06-01

Tropical cyclones have been a major cause of reef coral decline during recent decades, including on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). While cyclones are a natural element of the disturbance regime of coral reefs, the role of temporal clustering has previously been overlooked. Here, we examine the consequences of different types of cyclone temporal distributions (clustered, stochastic or regular) on reef ecosystems. We subdivided the GBR into 14 adjoining regions, each spanning roughly 300 km, and quantified both the rate and clustering of cyclones using dispersion statistics. To interpret the consequences of such cyclone variability for coral reef health, we used a model of observed coral population dynamics. Results showed that clustering occurs on the margins of the cyclone belt, being strongest in the southern reefs and the far northern GBR, which also has the lowest cyclone rate. In the central GBR, where rates were greatest, cyclones had a relatively regular temporal pattern. Modelled dynamics of the dominant coral genus, Acropora, suggest that the long-term average cover might be more than 13 % greater (in absolute cover units) under a clustered cyclone regime compared to stochastic or regular regimes. Thus, not only does cyclone clustering vary significantly along the GBR but such clustering is predicted to have a marked, and management-relevant, impact on the status of coral populations. Additionally, we use our regional clustering and rate results to sample from a library of over 7000 synthetic cyclone tracks for the GBR. This allowed us to provide robust reef-scale maps of annual cyclone frequency and cyclone impacts on Acropora. We conclude that assessments of coral reef vulnerability need to account for both spatial and temporal cyclone distributions.

The dynamical link between deep Atlantic extratropical cyclones and intense Mediterranean cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raveh-Rubin, Shira; Flaounas, Emmanouil

2017-04-01

Breaking of atmospheric Rossby waves has been previously shown to lead to intense Mediterranean cyclones, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the region. Wave breaking may be enhanced by warm conveyor belts (WCBs) associated with extratropical cyclones developing over the Atlantic Ocean. More precisely, WCBs supply the upper troposphere with air masses of low potential vorticity that, in turn, amplify ridges and thus favor Rossby wave breaking. This study identifies and validates the relevance of the mechanism that connects Atlantic cyclones and intense mature Mediterranean cyclones through ridge amplification by WCBs. Using ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses and a feature-based approach, we analyze the 200 most intense Mediterranean cyclones for the years 1989-2008 and show that their majority (181 cases) is indeed associated with this mechanism upstream. Results show that multiple Atlantic cyclones are associated with each case of intense Mediterranean cyclone downstream. Moreover, the associated Atlantic cyclones are particularly deep compared to climatology.

“Out of our control”: Living through Cyclone Yasi

PubMed Central

Woods, Cindy; West, Caryn; Buettner, Petra; Usher, Kim

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore the experiences of people who lived through Cyclone Yasi on 3 February 2011. Data from two open-ended questions (Q1: n=344; and Q2: n=339) within a survey completed by 433 residents of cyclone-affected areas between Cairns and Townsville, Australia, were analysed using a qualitative, thematic approach. Experiences were portrayed in three main themes: (1) living in the mode of existential threat describes survivors’ sense of panic and feeling at the mercy of nature as they feared for their life; (2) unforgettable memories describe feelings of emotional helplessness and the unimaginable chaos that the cyclone wrought; and (3) centrality of others shows how community support and closeness helped alleviate losses and uncertainty. A critical finding from this study was the negative role of the media in escalating fears for life prior to and during the cyclone, highlighting the need for government, community leaders, and health professionals to have a media plan in place to ensure that disaster warnings are taken seriously without inciting unnecessary panic. Although survivors experienced extreme vulnerability and a threat to life, the disaster also brought communities closer together and connected family, friends, and neighbours through the caring, support, and help they offered each other. This highlights the central role of others during the recovery process and underlines the importance of promoting and facilitating social support to aid recovery post disaster. PMID:24434053

Relationship of The Tropical Cyclogenesis With Solar and Magnetospheric Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vishnevsky, O. V.; Pankov, V. M.; Erokhine, N. S.

Formation of tropical cyclones is a badly studied period in their life cycle even though there are many papers dedicated to analysis of influence of different parameters upon cyclones occurrence frequency (see e.g., Gray W.M.). Present paper is dedicated to study of correlation of solar and magnetospheric activity with the appearance of tropical cyclones in north-west region of Pacific ocean. Study of correlation was performed by using both classical statistical methods (including maximum entropy method) and quite modern ones, for example multifractal analysis. Information about Wolf's numbers and cyclogenesis intensity in period of 1944-2000 was received from different Internet databases. It was shown that power spectra maximums of Wolf's numbers and appeared tropical cyclones ones corresponds to 11-year period; solar activity and cyclogenesis processes intensity are in antiphase; maximum of mutual correlation coefficient (~ 0.8) between Wolf's numbers and cyclogenesis intensity is in South-China sea. There is a relation of multifractal characteristics calculated for both time series with the mutual correlation function that is another indicator of correlation between tropical cyclogenesis and solar-magnetospheric activity. So, there is the correlation between solar-magnetospheric activity and tropical cyclone intensity in this region. Possible physical mechanisms of such correlation including anomalous precipitations charged particles from the Earth radiation belts and wind intensity amplification in the troposphere are discussed.

Relationship of The Tropical Cyclogenesis With Solar and Magnetospheric Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vishnevsky, O.; Pankov, V.; Erokhine, N.

Formation of tropical cyclones is a badly studied period in their life cycle even though there are many papers dedicated to analysis of influence of different parameters upon cyclones occurrence frequency (see e.g., Gray W.M.). Present paper is dedicated to study of correlation of solar and magnetospheric activity with the appearance of tropi- cal cyclones in north-west region of Pacific ocean. Study of correlation was performed by using both classical statistical methods (including maximum entropy method) and quite modern ones, for example multifractal analysis. Information about Wolf's num- bers and cyclogenesis intensity in period of 1944-2000 was received from different Internet databases. It was shown that power spectra maximums of Wolf's numbers and appeared tropical cyclones ones corresponds to 11-year period; solar activity and cyclogenesis processes intensity are in antiphase; maximum of mutual correlation co- efficient ( 0.8) between Wolf's numbers and cyclogenesis intensity is in South-China sea. There is a relation of multifractal characteristics calculated for both time series with the mutual correlation function that is another indicator of correlation between tropical cyclogenesis and solar-magnetospheric activity. So, there is the correlation between solar-magnetospheric activity and tropical cyclone intensity in this region. Possible physical mechanisms of such correlation including anomalous precipitations charged particles from the Earth radiation belts and wind intensity amplification in the troposphere are discussed.

The Impact of Lightning on Hurricane Rapid Intensification Forecasts Using the HWRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosado, K.; Tallapragada, V.; Jenkins, G. S.

2016-12-01

In 2010, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) created the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) with the main goal of improving the tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasts by 50% in ten years. One of the focus areas is the improvement of the tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) forecasts. In order to contribute to this task, the role of lightning during the life cycle of a tropical cyclone using the NCEP operational HWRF hurricane model has been investigated. We ask two key research questions: (1) What is the functional relationship between atmospheric moisture content, lightning, and intensity in the HWRF model? and (2) How well does the HWRF model forecast the spatial distributions of lightning before, during, and after tropical cyclone intensification, especially for RI events? In order to address those questions, a lightning parameterization scheme called the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) was implemented into the HWRF model. The selected study cases to test the LPI implementation on the 2015 HWRF (operational version) are: Earl and Joaquin (North Atlantic), Haiyan (Western North Pacific), and Patricia (Eastern North Pacific). Five-day forecasts was executed on each case study with emphasis on rapid intensification periods. An extensive analysis between observed "best track" intensity, model intensity forecast, and potential for lightning forecast was performed. Preliminary results show that: (1) strong correlation between lightning and intensity changes does exists; and (2) the potential for lightning increases to its maximum peak a few hours prior to the peak intensity of the tropical cyclone. LPI peak values could potentially serve as indicator for future rapid intensification periods. Results from this investigation are giving us a better understanding of the mechanism behind lightning as a proxy for tropical cyclone steady state intensification and tropical cyclone rapid intensification processes. Improvement of lightning forecast has the potential to improve HWRF hurricane model intensity forecasts.

Simulating the Cyclone Induced Turbulent Mixing in the Bay of Bengal using COAWST Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, K. R.; Nigam, T.; Pant, V.

2017-12-01

Mixing in the upper oceanic layers (up to a few tens of meters from surface) is an important process to understand the evolution of sea surface properties. Enhanced mixing due to strong wind forcing at surface leads to deepening of mixed layer that affects the air-sea exchange of heat and momentum fluxes and modulates sea surface temperature (SST). In the present study, we used Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model to demonstrate and quantify the enhanced cyclone induced turbulent mixing in case of a severe cyclonic storm. The COAWST model was configured over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and used to simulate the atmospheric and oceanic conditions prevailing during the tropical cyclone (TC) Phailin that occurred over the BoB during 10-15 October 2013. The model simulated cyclone track was validated with IMD best-track and model SST validated with daily AVHRR SST data. Validation shows that model simulated track & intensity, SST and salinity were in good agreement with observations and the cyclone induced cooling of the sea surface was well captured by the model. Model simulations show a considerable deepening (by 10-15 m) of the mixed layer and shoaling of thermocline during TC Phailin. The power spectrum analysis was performed on the zonal and meridional baroclinic current components, which shows strongest energy at 14 m depth. Model results were analyzed to investigate the non-uniform energy distribution in the water column from surface up to the thermocline depth. The rotary spectra analysis highlights the downward direction of turbulent mixing during the TC Phailin period. Model simulations were used to quantify and interpret the near-inertial mixing, which were generated by cyclone induced strong wind stress and the near-inertial energy. These near-inertial oscillations are responsible for the enhancement of the mixing operative in the strong post-monsoon (October-November) stratification in the BoB.

Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Joaquim G.; Gómara, Iñigo; Masato, Giacomo; Dacre, Helen F.; Woollings, Tim; Caballero, Rodrigo

2015-04-01

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

Validation of High Wind Retrievals from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKague, D. S.; Ruf, C. S.; Balasubramaniam, R.; Clarizia, M. P.

2017-12-01

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission, launched in December of 2016, provides all-weather observations of sea surface winds. Using GPS-based bistatic reflectometry, the CYGNSS satellites can estimate sea surface winds even through a hurricane eye wall. This, combined with the high temporal resolution of the CYGNSS constellation (median revisit time of 2.8 hours), yields unprecedented ability to estimate hurricane strength winds. While there are a number of other sources of sea surface wind estimates, such as buoys, dropsondes, passive and active microwave from aircraft and satellite, and models, the combination of all-weather, high accuracy, short revisit time, high spatial coverage, and continuous operation of the CYGNSS mission enables significant advances in the understanding, monitoring, and prediction of cyclones. Validating CYGNSS wind retrievals over the bulk of the global wind speed distribution, which peaks at around 7 meters per second, is relatively straight-forward, requiring spatial-temporal matching of observations with independent sources (such as those mentioned above). Validating CYGNSS wind retrievals for "high" winds (> 20 meters per second), though, is problematic. Such winds occur only in intense storms. While infrequent, making validation opportunities also infrequent and problematic due to their intense nature, such storms are important to study because of the high potential for damage and loss of life. This presentation will describe the efforts of the CYGNSS Calibration/Validation team to gather measurements of high sea surface winds for development and validation of the CYGNSS geophysical model function (GMF), which forms the basis of retrieving winds from CYGNSS observations. The bulk of these observations come from buoy measurements as well as aircraft ("hurricane hunter") measurements from passive microwave and dropsondes. These data are matched in space and time to CYGNSS observations for training of the CYGNSS GMF and an independent set is used for validation of the resulting high wind speed retrievals. In addition to describing the general validation process, results from matchups over the 2017 hurricane season will be presented.

The dynamical structure of intense Mediterranean cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaounas, Emmanouil; Raveh-Rubin, Shira; Wernli, Heini; Drobinski, Philippe; Bastin, Sophie

2015-05-01

This paper presents and analyzes the three-dimensional dynamical structure of intense Mediterranean cyclones. The analysis is based on a composite approach of the 200 most intense cyclones during the period 1989-2008 that have been identified and tracked using the output of a coupled ocean-atmosphere regional simulation with 20 km horizontal grid spacing and 3-hourly output. It is shown that the most intense Mediterranean cyclones have a common baroclinic life cycle with a potential vorticity (PV) streamer associated with an upper-level cyclonic Rossby wave breaking, which precedes cyclogenesis in the region and triggers baroclinic instability. It is argued that this common baroclinic life cycle is due to the strongly horizontally sheared environment in the Mediterranean basin, on the poleward flank of the quasi-persistent subtropical jet. The composite life cycle of the cyclones is further analyzed considering the evolution of key atmospheric elements as potential temperature and PV, as well as the cyclones' thermodynamic profiles and rainfall. It is shown that most intense Mediterranean cyclones are associated with warm conveyor belts and dry air intrusions, similar to those of other strong extratropical cyclones, but of rather small scale. Before cyclones reach their mature stage, the streamer's role is crucial to advect moist and warm air towards the cyclones center. These dynamical characteristics, typical for very intense extratropical cyclones in the main storm track regions, are also valid for these Mediterranean cases that have features that are visually similar to tropical cyclones.

Method and apparatus for hydrocarbon recovery from tar sands

DOEpatents

Westhoff, J.D.; Harak, A.E.

1988-05-04

A method and apparatus for utilizing tar sands having a broad range of bitumen content is disclosed. More particularly, tar sands are pyrolyzed in a cyclone retort with high temperature gases recycled from the cyclone retort to produce oil and hydrocarbon products. The spent tar sands are then burned at 2000/degree/F in a burner to remove residual char and produce a solid waste that is easily disposable. The process and apparatus have the advantages of being able to utilize tar sands having a broad range of bitumen content and the advantage of producing product gases that are free from combustion gases and thereby have a higher heating value. Another important advantage is rapid pyrolysis of the tar sands in the cyclone so as to effectively utilize smaller sized reactor vessels for reducing capitol and operating costs. 1 fig., 1 tab.

Mesoscale eddies and T richodesmium spp. distributions in the southwestern North Atlantic

PubMed Central

McGillicuddy, Dennis J.; Flierl, Glenn R.; Davis, Cabell S.; Dyhrman, Sonya T.; Waterbury, John B.

2015-01-01

Abstract Correlations of Trichodesmium colony abundance with the eddy field emerged in two segments of Video Plankton Recorder observations made in the southwestern North Atlantic during fall 2010 and spring 2011. In fall 2010, local maxima in abundance were observed in cyclones. We hypothesized surface Ekman transport convergence as a mechanism for trapping buoyant colonies in cyclones. Idealized models supported the potential of this process to influence the distribution of buoyant colonies over time scales of several months. In spring 2011, the highest vertically integrated colony abundances were observed in anticyclones. These peaks in abundance correlated with anomalously fresh water, suggesting riverine input as a driver of the relationship. These contrasting results in cyclones and anticyclones highlight distinct mechanisms by which mesoscale eddies can influence the abundance and distribution of Trichodesmium populations of the southwestern North Atlantic. PMID:26937328

Computer Simulation of the Hydrodynamic Processes of Cyclone Dust Collectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plashikhin, S. V.

2016-09-01

In the present paper, the gas-dynamic flow structures in dust collectors with an internal louvered element and an external dust hopper and the traditional design of the NIIOGAZ type have been considered. The character of motion of particles of various median diameters in a cyclone dust collector has also been investigated. A survey has been made of the literature of foreign and home authors dealing with questions of filtration of solid particles in the gas flow in apparatuses of the centrifugal type [1, 2]. The arrangement and principle of operation of the cyclone dust collector is presented. The computational modeling of the flow was carried out by solving Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations by the CFD method with the use of a k-ɛ turbulence model for four modes of operation of the apparatus.

Slag processing system for direct coal-fired gas turbines

DOEpatents

Pillsbury, Paul W.

1990-01-01

Direct coal-fired gas turbine systems and methods for their operation are provided by this invention. The gas turbine system includes a primary zone for burning coal in the presence of compressed air to produce hot combustion gases and debris, such as molten slag. The turbine system further includes a secondary combustion zone for the lean combustion of the hot combustion gases. The operation of the system is improved by the addition of a cyclone separator for removing debris from the hot combustion gases. The cyclone separator is disposed between the primary and secondary combustion zones and is in pressurized communication with these zones. In a novel aspect of the invention, the cyclone separator includes an integrally disposed impact separator for at least separating a portion of the molten slag from the hot combustion gases.

Method and apparatus for hydrocarbon recovery from tar sands

DOEpatents

Westhoff, James D.; Harak, Arnold E.

1989-01-01

A method and apparatus for utilizing tar sands having a broad range of bitumen content is disclosed. More particularly, tar sands are pyrolyzed in a cyclone retort with high temperature gases recycled from the cyclone retort to produce oil and hydrocarbon products. The spent tar sands are then burned at 2000.degree. F. in a burner to remove residual char and produce a solid waste that is easily disposable. The process and apparatus have the advantages of being able to utilize tar sands having a broad range of bitumen content and the advantage of producing product gases that are free from combustion gases and thereby have a higher heating value. Another important advantage is rapid pyrolysis of the tar sands in the cyclone so as to effectively utilize smaller sized reactor vessels for reducing capitol and operating costs.

Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis by Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation: An Anomalous Dynamic Genesis Potential Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, J.; Wang, B.

2016-12-01

The large scale circulation anomalies associated with boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) strongly controls the genesis of tropical cyclone in a global perspective. The present study attempts to reveal factors by which BSISO modulation of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) using two genesis potential indices (GPI): Dynamic GPI (DGPI) and Emanuel and Nolan's GPI (ENGPI). The ENGPI contains two dynamic (the vertical wind shear and absolute vorticity at 850 hPa) and two thermodynamic factors (relative humidity at 600 hPa and maximum potential intensity), while DPGI replaced the two thermodynamic factors by two additional dynamic factors (500 hPa vertical velocity and meridional shear of zonal winds). The major basins of tropical cyclone genesis during May to October from 1979 to 2014 are divided into North Indian Ocean (NIO), Western North Pacific (WNP), Eastern North Pacific (ENP), and North Atlantic (NAT). The genesis numbers of tropical cyclone at each basin increased distinctively at its maximum active phase of BSISO, showing the significant modulation of ISO on tropical cyclone genesis in the Northern Hemisphere. Analysis of the individual contribution of each factors in GPI reveals that the vertical velocity at 500hPa of DGPI and the relative humidity at 600hPa of ENGPI play the most important role in modulating TCG by BSISO. The SST and maximum potential intensity of ENGPI did not represent important physical processes by which the BSISO circulation anomalies affect TCG. The evolution of eight-phase BSISO with intraseasonal prediction of TCG revealed great improvement by DGPI. The evolution of TCG associated with BSISO by basins, such as NIO, WNP, ENP, and NAT showed good performance in featuring the TCG variability, indicating the possibility of improving subseasonal prediction of TCG by our new DGPI.

Extratropical Cyclone in the Southern Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

These images from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer portray an occluded extratropical cyclone situated in the Southern Ocean, about 650 kilometers south of the Eyre Peninsula, South Australia.

Parts of the Yorke Peninsula and a portion of the Murray-Darling River basin are visible between the clouds near the top of the left-hand image, a true-color view from MISR's nadir(vertical-viewing) camera. Retrieved cloud-tracked wind velocities are indicated by the superimposed arrows. The image on the right displays cloud-top heights. Areas where cloud heights could not be retrieved are shown in black. Both the wind vectors and the cloud heights were derived using data from multiple MISR cameras within automated computer processing algorithms. The stereoscopic algorithms used to generate these results are still being refined, and future versions of these products may show modest changes.

Extratropical cyclones are the dominant weather system at midlatitudes, and the term is used generically for region allow-pressure systems in the mid- to high-latitudes. In the southern hemisphere, cyclonic rotation is clockwise. These storms obtain their energy from temperature differences between air masses on either side of warm and cold fronts, and their characteristic pattern is of warm and cold fronts radiating out from a migrating low pressure center which forms, deepens, and dissipates as the fronts fold and collapse on each other. The center of this cyclone has started to decay, with the band of cloud to the south most likely representing the main front that was originally connected with the cyclonic circulation.

These views were acquired on October 11, 2001 during Terra orbit 9650, and represent an area of about 380 kilometers x 1900 kilometers.

Extratropical Cyclone in the Southern Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

These images from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) portray an occluded extratropical cyclone situated in the Southern Ocean, about 650 kilometers south of the Eyre Peninsula, South Australia. The left-hand image, a true-color view from MISR's nadir (vertical-viewing) camera, shows clouds just south of the Yorke Peninsula and the Murray-Darling river basin in Australia. Retrieved cloud-tracked wind velocities are indicated by the superimposed arrows. The image on the right displays cloud-top heights. Areas where cloud heights could not be retrieved are shown in black. Both the wind vectors and the cloud heights were derived using data from multiple MISR cameras within automated computer processing algorithms. The stereoscopic algorithms used to generate these results are still being refined, and future versions of these products may show modest changes. Extratropical cyclones are the dominant weather system at midlatitudes, and the term is used generically for regional low-pressure systems in the mid- to high-latitudes. In the southern hemisphere, cyclonic rotation is clockwise. These storms obtain their energy from temperature differences between air masses on either side of warm and cold fronts, and their characteristic pattern is of warm and cold fronts radiating out from a migrating low pressure center which forms, deepens, and dissipates as the fronts fold and collapse on each other. The center of this cyclone has started to decay, with the band of cloud to the south most likely representing the main front that was originally connected with the cyclonic circulation. These views were acquired on October 11, 2001, and the large view represents an area of about 380 kilometers x 1900 kilometers. Image courtesy NASA/GSFC/LaRC/JPL, MISR Team.

The Vorticity Budgets of North Atlantic Winter Marine Extratropical Cyclones Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azad, R.; Sorteberg, A.

2012-12-01

A partitioned form of the Zwack-Okossi (Z-O) tendency equation is employed to examine the composite role of dynamic and thermodynamic forcing mechanisms to the development of North Atlantic winter marine extratropical cyclones. The results provide a further insight into the budgets of near surface cyclonic geostrophic vorticity (CGV) and their evolution during the life cycle of mid-latitude low pressure systems. Of interest are the direct, indirect and net effects of the Z-O forcing mechanisms. The direct effect shows the contribution of each process to the near surface geostrophic vorticity tendency, while the indirect effect implies the contribution from the associated vertical motion and resulting adiabatic cooling or warming. The net effect is the sum of the direct and indirect effects.We found that the vorticity advection term is the largest net contributor to the development of the marine cyclones. The net positive effect of both the temperature advection and latent heating terms is smaller owing to the induced adiabatic cooling which reduces the positive direct contributions. The direct and indirect parts of ageostrophic tendency and friction terms support each other, resulting in significant net contributions at the low center.Comparisons of the composite contributions by the Z-O forcing terms at different pressure levels over the low center indicate that, in agreement with previous studies, the commencement of significant development is accompanied with the upper level cyclonic absolute vorticity advection, upper level warm advection and mid-to low level latent heating. However, during the end of the development, mid-tropospheric net contribution by vorticity advection term and low level warm advection controls the production of CGV. The former is due to both the presence of mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection and induced adiabatic warming over the composite low center.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

1997-01-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

2000-10-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akperov, Mirseid; Rinke, Annette; Mokhov, Igor I.; Matthes, Heidrun; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Adakudlu, Muralidhar; Cassano, John; Christensen, Jens H.; Dembitskaya, Mariya A.; Dethloff, Klaus; Fettweis, Xavier; Glisan, Justin; Gutjahr, Oliver; Heinemann, Günther; Koenigk, Torben; Koldunov, Nikolay V.; Laprise, René; Mottram, Ruth; Nikiéma, Oumarou; Scinocca, John F.; Sein, Dmitry; Sobolowski, Stefan; Winger, Katja; Zhang, Wenxin

2018-03-01

The ability of state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large-scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA-Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency-Japanese 55-year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981-2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA-Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000-2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large-scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA-Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables.

Factors Affecting the Evolution of Hurricane Erin and the Distributions of Hydrometeors: Role of Microphysical Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McFarquhar, Greg M.; Zhang, Henian; Dudhia, Jimy; Halverson, Jeffrey B.; Heymsfield, Gerald; Hood, Robbie; Marks, Frank, Jr.

2003-01-01

Fine-resolution simulations of Hurricane Erin 2001 are conducted using the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model version 3.5 to investigate the role of thermodynamic, boundary layer and microphysical processes in Erin's growth and maintenance, and their effects on the horizontal and vertical distributions of hydrometeors. Through comparison against radar, radiometer, and dropsonde data collected during the Convection and Moisture Experiment 4, it is seen that realistic simulations of Erin are obtained provided that fine resolution simulations with detailed representations of physical processes are conducted. The principle findings of the study are as follows: 1) a new iterative condensation scheme, which limits the unphysical increase of equivalent potential temperature associated with most condensation schemes, increases the horizontal size of the hurricane, decreases its maximum rainfall rate, reduces its intensity, and makes its eye more moist; 2) in general, microphysical parameterization schemes with more categories of hydrometeors produce more intense hurricanes, larger hydrometeor mixing ratios, and more intense updrafts and downdrafts; 3) the choice of coefficients describing hydrometeor fall velocities has as big of an impact on the hurricane simulations as does choice of microphysical parameterization scheme with no clear relationship between fall velocity and hurricane intensity; and 4) in order for a tropical cyclone to adequately intensify, an advanced boundary layer scheme (e.g., Burk-Thompson scheme) must be used to represent boundary layer processes. The impacts of varying simulations on the horizontal and vertical distributions of different categories of hydrometeor species, on equivalent potential temperature, and on storm updrafts and downdrafts are examined to determine how the release of latent heat feedbacks upon the structure of Erin. In general, all simulations tend to overpredict precipitation rate and hydrometeor mixing ratios. The ramifications of these findings for quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) of tropical cyclones are discussed.

A Classification of Mediterranean Cyclones Based on Global Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reale, Oreste; Atlas, Robert

2003-01-01

The Mediterranean Sea region is dominated by baroclinic and orographic cyclogenesis. However, previous work has demonstrated the existence of rare but intense subsynoptic-scale cyclones displaying remarkable similarities to tropical cyclones and polar lows, including, but not limited to, an eye-like feature in the satellite imagery. The terms polar low and tropical cyclone have been often used interchangeably when referring to small-scale, convective Mediterranean vortices and no definitive statement has been made so far on their nature, be it sub-tropical or polar. Moreover, most of the classifications of Mediterranean cyclones have neglected the small-scale convective vortices, focusing only on the larger-scale and far more common baroclinic cyclones. A classification of all Mediterranean cyclones based on operational global analyses is proposed The classification is based on normalized horizontal shear, vertical shear, scale, low versus mid-level vorticity, low-level temperature gradients, and sea surface temperatures. In the classification system there is a continuum of possible events, according to the increasing role of barotropic instability and decreasing role of baroclinic instability. One of the main results is that the Mediterranean tropical cyclone-like vortices and the Mediterranean polar lows appear to be different types of events, in spite of the apparent similarity of their satellite imagery. A consistent terminology is adopted, stating that tropical cyclone- like vortices are the less baroclinic of all, followed by polar lows, cold small-scale cyclones and finally baroclinic lee cyclones. This classification is based on all the cyclones which occurred in a four-year period (between 1996 and 1999). Four cyclones, selected among all the ones which developed during this time-frame, are analyzed. Particularly, the classification allows to discriminate between two cyclones (occurred in October 1996 and in March 1999) which both display a very well-defined eye-like feature in the satellite imagery. According to our classification system, the two events are dynamically different and can be categorized as being respectively a tropical cyclone-like vortex and well-developed polar low.

Tropical cyclone intensities from satellite microwave data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonderhaar, T. H.; Kidder, S. Q.

1980-01-01

Radial profiles of mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature from the Nimbus 6 scanning microwave spectrometer (SCAMS) were constructed around eight intensifying tropical storms in the western Pacific. Seven storms showed distinct inward temperature gradients required for intensification; the eighth displayed no inward gradient and was decaying 24 hours later. The possibility that satellite data might be used to forecast tropical cyclone turning motion was investigated using estimates obtained from Nimbus 6 SCAMS data tapes of the mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature field around eleven tropical storms in 1975. Analysis of these data show that for turning storms, in all but one case, the turn was signaled 24 hours in advance by a significant temperature gradient perpendicular to the storm's path, at a distance of 9 deg to 13 deg in front of the storm. A thresholding technique was applied to the North Central U.S. during the summer to estimate precipitation frequency. except

NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP Satellite Captures Night-time Look at Cyclone Felleng

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured this false-colored night-time image of Cyclone Felleng during the night on Jan. 28, 2013. Felleng is located in the Southern Indian Ocean, and is northwest of Madagascar. The image revealed some pretty cold overshooting tops, topping at ~170K. The image shows some interesting gravity waves propagating out from the storm in both the thermal and visible imagery. For full storm history on NASA's Hurricane Web Page, visit: www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2013/h2013... Credit: William Straka, UWM/NASA/NOAA NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP Satellite Captures Night-time Look at Cyclone Felleng

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-01-31

NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured this false-colored night-time image of Cyclone Felleng during the night on Jan. 28, 2013. Felleng is located in the Southern Indian Ocean, and is northwest of Madagascar. The image revealed some pretty cold overshooting tops, topping at ~170K. The image shows some interesting gravity waves propagating out from the storm in both the thermal and visible imagery. For full storm history on NASA's Hurricane Web Page, visit: www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2013/h2013... Credit: William Straka, UWM/NASA/NOAA NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Extreme storm activity in North Atlantic and European region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilova, N.

2010-09-01

The extreme storm activity study over North Atlantic and Europe includes the analyses of extreme cyclone (track number, integral cyclonic intensity) and extreme storm (track number) during winter and summer seasons in the regions: 1) 55°N-80N, 50°W-70°E; 2) 30°N-55°N, 50°W-70°E. Extreme cyclones were selected based on cyclone centre pressure (P<=970 mbar). Extreme storms were selected from extreme cyclones based on wind velocity on 925 mbar. The Bofort scala was used for this goal. Integral cyclonic intensity (for region) includes the calculation cyclone centers number and sum of MSLP anomalies in cyclone centers. The analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm, 6-hourly MSLP and wind data (u and v on 925 gPa) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses from January 1948 to March 2010. The comparision of mean, calculated for every ten years, had shown, that in polar region extreme cyclone and storm track number, and integral cyclonic intensity gradually increases and have maximum during last years (as for summer, as for winter season). Every ten years means for summer season are more then for winter season, as for polar, as for tropical region. Means (ten years) for tropical region are significance less then for polar region.

Impact of Climate Change on the Climatology of Vb Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messmer, Martina; José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Blumer, Sandro; Raible, Christoph C.

2017-04-01

Extra-tropical cyclones of type Vb develop over the western Mediterranean and move northeastward, leading to heavy precipitation over Central Europe and posing a major natural hazard. Since such cyclones are high-impact events that lead to important economical and personal damage, in Central Europe, and especially in the Alpine region, understanding their sensitivity to climate change is important to provide suitable adaptation measures. This communication aims at investigating the impact of climate change in Vb cyclones through a climate simulation covering the whole 21st century performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Further, some selected Vb episodes within the simulation are downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The analysis focuses on two different time periods. The reference period spans the ERA-Interim period 1979 to 2013, whereas the other one covers the last 30 years of the 21st century 2070-2099. The simulation uses the emissions from the business as usual scenario (RCP8.5). For both periods, the Vb cyclones were identified using a tracking tool and their main properties were characterized. During the reference period 86 Vb cyclones can be identified overall, which corresponds to approximately 2.5 Vb cyclones per year. This number corresponds very well to the 82 Vb cyclones found in the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset in the same period of time. This number is reduced under future climate conditions, leading to 48 Vb cyclones in total, or to 1.6 Vb cyclones per year on average. Despite the reduction in their number, results indicate that there is a tendency for intensification in precipitation for high-impact Vb events of around 10% over the Alpine region in the future compared to the ones between 1979 and 2013. Interestingly, while the summer months are most prone for the occurrence of the 10 heaviest precipitation Vb events in the current conditions, the 10 heaviest precipitation Vb events in the future become shifted towards spring and also fall months, implicating an important change in the seasonality of the phenomenon. In order to gain more insight on the changes in the processes responsible for such changes in precipitation and occurrence of Vb events, we downscaled the 10 most precipitation intense Vb events of each of the two periods. Preliminary results indicate that future Vb events tend to affect more strongly the eastern costs of the Mediterranean Sea, while the impact in the Alpine region becomes slightly ameliorated compared to current situations. This result is in agreement with results previously obtained through the analysis of a set of highly idealized sensitivity experiments, and can be related to an increasing instability at the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea induced by a stronger latent heating over the sea under future conditions.

Quantitative observations on tropical cyclone tracks in the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terry, James P.; Gienko, Gennady

2018-03-01

The Arabian Sea basin represents a minor component of global total cyclones annually and has not featured so prominently in cyclone research compared with other basins where greater numbers of cyclones are registered each year. This paper presents the results of exploratory analysis of various features of cyclone tracks in the Arabian Sea, with a particular focus on examining their temporal and spatial patterns. Track morphometry also reveals further information on track shape. The study indicates how cyclones spawned during May in the early pre-monsoon period (often strong events) have a tendency to follow more sinuous tracks, whereas cyclones occurring in October in the post-monsoon period tend to follow straighter tracks. Track sinuosity is significantly related to other attributes, including cyclone longevity and intensity. Comparisons are also drawn between the general characteristics of cyclone tracks in the Arabian Sea and other ocean basins, suggesting how the size and geography of the Arabian Sea basin exert influences on these characteristics.

Impacts of tropical cyclones on Fiji and Samoa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy; Prakash, Bipendra; Atalifo, Terry; Waqaicelua, Alipate; Seuseu, Sunny; Ausetalia Titimaea, Mulipola

2013-04-01

Weather and climate hazards have significant impacts on Pacific Island Countries. Costs of hazards such as tropical cyclones can be astronomical making enormous negative economic impacts on developing countries. We highlight examples of extreme weather events which have occurred in Fiji and Samoa in the last few decades and have caused major economic and social disruption in the countries. Destructive winds and torrential rain associated with tropical cyclones can bring the most damaging weather conditions to the region causing economic and social hardship, affecting agricultural productivity, infrastructure and economic development which can persist for many years after the initial impact. Analysing historical data, we describe the impacts of tropical cyclones Bebe and Kina on Fiji. Cyclone Bebe (October 1972) affected the whole Fiji especially the Yasawa Islands, Viti Levu and Kadavu where hurricane force winds have been recorded. Nineteen deaths were reported and damage costs caused by cyclone Bebe were estimated as exceeding F20 million (F 1972). Tropical cyclone Kina passed between Fiji's two main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, and directly over Levuka on the night of 2 January 1993 with hurricane force winds causing extensive damage. Twenty three deaths have been reported making Kina one of the deadliest hurricanes in Fiji's recent history. Severe flooding on Viti Levu, combined with high tide and heavy seas led to destruction of the Sigatoka and Ba bridges, as well as almost complete loss of crops in Sigatoka and Navua deltas. Overall, damage caused by cyclone Kina was estimated as F170 million. In Samoa, we describe devastation to the country caused by tropical cyclones Ofa (February 1990) and Val (December 1991) which were considered to be the worst cyclones to affect the Samoan islands since the 1889 Apia cyclone. In Samoa, seven people were killed due to cyclone Ofa, thousands of people were left homeless and entire villages were destroyed. Damage on Samoa totalled to US130 million. Cyclone Val caused damage and destruction to 95% of houses in Samoa and severe crop damage; total damage was estimated as US200 million. Recently, severe tropical cyclone Evan affected Samoa and Fiji (December 2012). Significant progress in operational tropical cyclone forecasting has been achieved over the past few decades which resulted in improving early warning system but death toll attributed to cyclones is still high - at least 14 deaths in Samoa are related to cyclone Evan (luckily, no death reports in Fiji). Cyclone-related economic losses also remain very high making significant negative impact on economies of the countries. Preliminary assessment of damage caused by cyclone Evan in Fiji indicates loses of about 75.29 million. By the end of this century projections suggest decreasing numbers of tropical cyclones but a possible shift towards more intense categories. In addition, geographic shifts in distribution of tropical cyclone occurrences caused by warming of the atmospheric and oceanic environment are possible. This should be taken in consideration by authorities of the Pacific Island Countries when developing adaptation strategies to increasing tropical cyclone risk due to climate change.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the Interannual Variability of Baiu Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaura, T.; Tomita, T.

2011-12-01

This work examines the contribution of tropical cyclones to the interannual variability of Baiu precipitation with the large-scale interannual variations in the tropics, that is, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) in the Asian monsoon. The data used are the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project/Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The diagnosed months and the time period are June and July, and 30 years from 1979 to 2008. When the negative precipitation anomalies appear in the entire Baiu front with the cold ENSO phase, the number of tropical cyclones increases around the northern part of the Philippines, and a larger-scale anomalous cyclone is formed there. Tropical cyclones contribute to strengthening the anomalous cyclone. Anomalous convective activity in the anomalous cyclone excites Rossby waves that propagate northward within the low-level jet and form an anomalous anticyclone around Japan. The anomalous anticyclone decreases the Baiu precipitation. On the other hand, the number of tropical cyclones decreases, and an anomalous anticyclone is set around the northern part of the Philippines, when the positive precipitation anomalies are observed in the Baiu front with the warm ENSO phase. The contribution of tropical cyclones is insignificant in this phase. The warm and cold TBO phases are judged from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific that is different from the region for ENSO. In the cold TBO phase with the negative SST anomalies, there appear the negative precipitation anomalies around Kyushu and the positive ones to the southeast of Japan. Concurrently, an anomalous cyclone appears, and the accumulated cyclone energy estimated from the tropical cyclones increases to the southeast of Japan. Tropical cyclones contribute to forming the anomalous cyclone, which shifts the axis of monsoon southwesterlies southward. Thus, the negative precipitation anomalies and the positive ones appear in Kyushu and to the southeast of Japan. In the opposite TBO phase, an anomalous anticyclone is set to the southeast of Japan and suppresses tropical cyclones there. The contribution of tropical cyclones is small in this case. As such, local tropical cyclones contribute to the interannual variation of the Baiu precipitation with larger atmospheric circulations in the western North Pacific.

An updated climatology of explosive cyclones using alternative measures of cyclone intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanley, J.; Caballero, R.

2009-04-01

Using a novel cyclone tracking and identification method, we compute a climatology of explosively intensifying cyclones or ‘bombs' using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim datasets. Traditionally, ‘bombs' have been identified using a central pressure deepening rate criterion (Sanders and Gyakum, 1980). We investigate alternative methods of capturing such extreme cyclones. These methods include using the maximum wind contained within the cyclone, and using a potential vorticity column measure within such systems, as a measure of intensity. Using the different measures of cyclone intensity, we construct and intercompare maps of peak cyclone intensity. We also compute peak intensity probability distributions, and assess the evidence for the bi-modal distribution found by Roebber (1984). Finally, we address the question of the relationship between storm intensification rate and storm destructiveness: are ‘bombs' the most destructive storms?

Satellite radiothermovision of atmospheric mesoscale processes: case study of tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ermakov, D. M.; Sharkov, E. A.; Chernushich, A. P.

2015-04-01

Satellite radiothermovision is a set of processing techniques applicable for multisource data of radiothermal monitoring of oceanatmosphere system, which allows creating dynamic description of mesoscale and synoptic atmospheric processes and estimating physically meaningful integral characteristics of the observed processes (like avdective flow of the latent heat through a given border). The approach is based on spatiotemporal interpolation of the satellite measurements which allows reconstructing the radiothermal fields (as well as the fields of geophysical parameters) of the ocean-atmosphere system at global scale with spatial resolution of about 0.125° and temporal resolution of 1.5 hour. The accuracy of spatiotemporal interpolation was estimated by direct comparison of interpolated data with the data of independent asynchronous measurements and was shown to correspond to the best achievable as reported in literature (for total precipitable water fields the accuracy is about 0.8 mm). The advantages of the implemented interpolation scheme are: closure under input radiothermal data, homogeneity in time scale (all data are interpolated through the same time intervals), automatic estimation of both the intermediate states of scalar field of the studied geophysical parameter and of vector field of effective velocity of advection (horizontal movements). Using this pair of fields one can calculate the flow of a given geophysical quantity though any given border. For example, in case of total precipitable water field, this flow (under proper calibration) has the meaning of latent heat advective flux. This opportunity was used to evaluate the latent heat flux though a set of circular contours, enclosing a tropical cyclone and drifting with it during its evolution. A remarkable interrelation was observed between the calculated magnitude and sign of advective latent flux and the intensity of a tropical cyclone. This interrelation is demonstrated in several examples of hurricanes and tropical cyclones of August, 2000, and typhoons of November, 2013, including super typhoon Haiyan.

Orographic Modification of Precipitation Processes in a Tropical Cyclone Moving over a Continental Mountain Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeHart, Jennifer C.

Airborne radar reflectivity data and numerical simulations are examined to determine how tropical cyclone precipitation processes are impacted by landfall over a continental mountain range. Analysis of the high-resolution radar data collected within Hurricane Karl (2010) during the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) shows that radar reflectivity enhancement in regions of upslope flow is constrained to low-levels. Reflectivity enhancement is not uniform and discrete regions of enhanced precipitation are embedded within a broad echo. In conjunction with an upstream dropsonde that exhibits weak instability, the radar data suggest a mix of gentle ascent and shallow convection occur. Regions of downslope flow are characterized by precipitation originating further aloft with little modification near low levels. Satellite data further indicate that deep convection develops after the high clouds dissipate, indicating that the evolving thermodynamic environment favors orographic modification processes beyond collection of orographically-generated cloud water. Numerical simulations examine how modification processes controlling precipitation are affected by the height of an idealized plateau. When terrain is minimal, the tropical cyclone decays slowly, the upper-level warm core remains robust, the moist neutral environment persists, and precipitation processes are largely concentrated within the eyewall and rainband. Movement over a tall topographic barrier induces rapid decay, which erodes the warm core and moist neutral environment. A mix of forced ascent and buoyant motions contribute to enhanced warm rain processes over the terrain. Overall, all microphysical quantities are greater for the tall plateau storm, but concentrations within the innermost core decay rapidly along with the storm. It is shown that the simulated tropical cyclone precipitation is heavily influenced by overestimated graupel production, which is a common problem of microphysical schemes. Surface precipitation is comparable between the two experiments, suggesting that strong decay of the storm affects the upper limit of precipitation. Similar precipitation patterns between the observations and tall plateau simulation suggest that the model obtains realistic precipitation through incorrect microphysical processes, but a lack of microphysical observations prevent full assessment of that hypothesis. Overall, this dissertation demonstrates that decay due to landfall over complex terrain affects the inner core thermodynamic and kinematic environment, which in turn affects the type and organization of precipitation processes that occur.

On the role of surface friction in tropical cyclone intensification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuqing

2017-04-01

Recent studies have debated on whether surface friction is positive or negative to tropical cyclone intensification in the view on angular momentum budget. That means whether the frictionally induced inward angular momentum transport can overcome the loss of angular momentum to the surface due to surface friction itself. Although this issue is still under debate, this study investigates another implicit dynamical effect, which modifies the radial location and strength of eyewall convection. We found that moderate surface friction is necessary for rapid intensity of tropical cyclones. This is demonstrated first by a simple coupled dynamical system that couples a multi-level boundary layer model and a shallow water equation model above with mass source parameterized by mass flux from the boundary layer model below, and then by a full physics model. The results show that surface friction leads to the inward penetration of inflow under the eyewall, shift the boundary layer mass convergence slightly inside the radius of maximum wind, and enhance the upward mass flux, and thus diabatic heating in the eyewall and intensification rate of a TC. This intensification process is different from the direct angular momentum budget previously used to explain the role of surface friction in tropical cyclone intensification.

Patterns of chlorophyll-a distribution linked to mesoscale structures in two contrasting areas Campeche Canyon and Bank, Southern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durán-Campos, Elizabeth; Salas-de-León, David Alberto; Monreal-Gómez, María Adela; Coria-Monter, Erik

2017-05-01

The chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) distribution in Campeche Canyon and Campeche Bank, at the Southern Gulf of Mexico, as well as its relationship with hydrographic structure were analyzed. The results show the existence of the Gulf Common Water (GCW), the Caribbean Tropical Surface Water (CTSW) and the Caribbean Subtropical Underwater (CSUW) in the 120 m upper layer at the Campeche Canyon. While at the Campeche Bank only the Caribbean Tropical Surface Water (CTSW) was found. The 15 °C and 18.5 °C isotherms topography depict the presence of a mesoscale anticyclone-cyclone dipole. The nutrient pumping mechanism fertilizes the eutrophic zone promoted by the cyclonic eddy. Submesoscale processes in the border of an anticyclone and a cyclone results in maximum of nitrate concentration and vertically integrated Chl-a at the frontal zone. Two Chl-a vertical distribution patterns were found, a deep maximum at the base of the euphotic layer not associated to the thermocline over the Campeche Canyon and a peak associated to the thermocline related to the shallow bottom at the Campeche Bank. Oligotrophic conditions were observed in the 50 m upper layer and mesotrophic conditions were found below this layer. The differences between the Campeche Bank and Campeche Canyon are that: in the canyon, the nutrient and Chl-a peaks were linked with the cyclone, and the submesoscale processes in the border of an anticyclone and a cyclone, respectively. In the vertical the maximum Chl-a was associated to the base of the euphotic layer and dominated by coccolithophores. In the Campeche Bank the nutrient and Chl-a peaks were influenced by the shelf break in the vertical the maximum Chl-a was associated with the thermocline and the silicoflagellate was identified as the dominant species.

Contrasting effects of tropical cyclones on the annual survival of a pelagic seabird in the Indian Ocean.

PubMed

Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Nevoux, Marie; Jones, Carl G; Ratcliffe, Norman; Ruhomaun, Kevin; Tatayah, Vikash; Norris, Ken

2017-02-01

Tropical cyclones are renowned for their destructive nature and are an important feature of marine and coastal tropical ecosystems. Over the last 40 years, their intensity, frequency and tracks have changed, partly in response to ocean warming, and future predictions indicate that these trends are likely to continue with potential consequences for human populations and coastal ecosystems. However, our understanding of how tropical cyclones currently affect marine biodiversity, and pelagic species in particular, is limited. For seabirds, the impacts of cyclones are known to be detrimental at breeding colonies, but impacts on the annual survival of pelagic adults and juveniles remain largely unexplored and no study has simultaneously explored the direct impacts of cyclones on different life-history stages across the annual life cycle. We used a 20-year data set on tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, tracking data from 122 Round Island petrels and long-term capture-mark-recapture data to explore the impacts of tropical cyclones on the survival of adult and juvenile (first year) petrels during both the breeding and migration periods. The tracking data showed that juvenile and adult Round Island petrels utilize the three cyclone regions of the Indian Ocean and were potentially exposed to cyclones for a substantial part of their annual cycle. However, only juvenile petrel survival was affected by cyclone activity; negatively by a strong cyclone in the vicinity of the breeding colony and positively by increasing cyclone activity in the Northern Indian Ocean where they spend the majority of their first year at sea. These contrasting effects raise the intriguing prospect that the projected changes in cyclones under current climate change scenarios may have positive as well as the more commonly perceived negative impacts on marine biodiversity. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mesoscale Convective Vortices in Multiscale, Idealized Simulations: Dependence on Background State, Interdependency with Moist Baroclinic Cyclones, and Comparison with BAMEX Observations

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

to be 700 km. The scale of devel- opment is therefore within the fast -growing, smaller wavenumber portion of the large cyclone growth regime...the baroclinic conversion term CA increases about half as fast as it does in the corresponding moist experiment. In the moist case, CA reaches its...conversion of mean-state APE to eddy APE is slower, so the occlusion process is delayed and the system con- tinues deepening, although not as fast as in the

Analysis of sensitivity to different parameterization schemes for a subtropical cyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quitián-Hernández, L.; Fernández-González, S.; González-Alemán, J. J.; Valero, F.; Martín, M. L.

2018-05-01

A sensitivity analysis to diverse WRF model physical parameterization schemes is carried out during the lifecycle of a Subtropical cyclone (STC). STCs are low-pressure systems that share tropical and extratropical characteristics, with hybrid thermal structures. In October 2014, a STC made landfall in the Canary Islands, causing widespread damage from strong winds and precipitation there. The system began to develop on October 18 and its effects lasted until October 21. Accurate simulation of this type of cyclone continues to be a major challenge because of its rapid intensification and unique characteristics. In the present study, several numerical simulations were performed using the WRF model to do a sensitivity analysis of its various parameterization schemes for the development and intensification of the STC. The combination of parameterization schemes that best simulated this type of phenomenon was thereby determined. In particular, the parameterization combinations that included the Tiedtke cumulus schemes had the most positive effects on model results. Moreover, concerning STC track validation, optimal results were attained when the STC was fully formed and all convective processes stabilized. Furthermore, to obtain the parameterization schemes that optimally categorize STC structure, a verification using Cyclone Phase Space is assessed. Consequently, the combination of parameterizations including the Tiedtke cumulus schemes were again the best in categorizing the cyclone's subtropical structure. For strength validation, related atmospheric variables such as wind speed and precipitable water were analyzed. Finally, the effects of using a deterministic or probabilistic approach in simulating intense convective phenomena were evaluated.

Large scale features and energetics of the hybrid subtropical low `Duck' over the Tasman Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes; Garde, Luke Andrew; Veiga, José Augusto Paixão; Simmonds, Ian

2014-01-01

New aspects of the genesis and partial tropical transition of a rare hybrid subtropical cyclone on the eastern Australian coast are presented. The `Duck' (March 2001) attracted more recent attention due to its underlying genesis mechanisms being remarkably similar to the first South Atlantic hurricane (March 2004). Here we put this cyclone in climate perspective, showing that it belongs to a class within the 1 % lowest frequency percentile in the Southern Hemisphere as a function of its thermal evolution. A large scale analysis reveals a combined influence from an existing tropical cyclone and a persistent mid-latitude block. A Lagrangian tracer showed that the upper level air parcels arriving at the cyclone's center had been modified by the blocking. Lorenz energetics is used to identify connections with both tropical and extratropical processes, and reveal how these create the large scale environment conducive to the development of the vortex. The results reveal that the blocking exerted the most important influence, with a strong peak in barotropic generation of kinetic energy over a large area traversed by the air parcels just before genesis. A secondary peak also coincided with the first time the cyclone developed an upper level warm core, but with insufficient amplitude to allow for a full tropical transition. The applications of this technique are numerous and promising, particularly on the use of global climate models to infer changes in environmental parameters associated with severe storms.

Improvements of the cyclone separator performance by down-comer tubes.

PubMed

Ganegama Bogodage, Sakura; Leung, A Y T

2016-07-05

Enhancement of fine particle (PM2.5) separation is important for cyclone separators to reduce any extra purification process required at the outlet. Therefore, the present experimental research was performed to explore the performance of cyclone separators modified with down-comer tubes at solid loading rates from 0 to 8.0 g/m(3) with a 10 m/s inlet velocity. The study proved the effectiveness of down-comer tubes in reducing the particle re-entrainment and increasing the finer separation with acceptable pressure drops, which was pronounced at low solid loading conditions. The experimental results were compared with theories of Smolik and Muschelknautz. Theories were acceptable for certain ranges, and theory breakdown was mainly due to the neglect of particle agglomeration, re-entrainment and the reduction of swirling energy, as well as the increase of wall friction due to presence of particles. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The effect of physical parameterizations and initial data on the numerical prediction of the President's Day cyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R.

1984-01-01

Results are presented from a series of forecast experiments which were conducted to assess the importance of large-scale dynamical processes, diabatic heating, and initial data to the prediction of the President's Day cyclone. The synoptic situation and NMC model forecasts for this case are summarized, and the analysis/forecast system and experiments are described. The GLAS Model forecast from the GLAS analysis at 0000 GMT 18 February is found to have correctly predicted intense coastal cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation. A forecast with surface heat and moisture fluxes eliminated failed to predict any cyclogenesis while a similar forecast with only the surface moisture flux excluded showed weak development. Diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low-level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate of movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic.

Synergistic interactions between an upper-level jet streak and diabatic processes that influence the development of a low-level jet and a secondary coastal cyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Uccellini, Louis W.; Petersen, Ralph A.; Kocin, Paul J.; Brill, Keith F.; Tuccillo, James J.

1987-01-01

A series of numerical simulations of the February 1979 Presidents Day cyclone is presented. The development of the low-level jet (LLJ) associated with the cyclone is described, and the mesoscale numerical model, initial analyses, and experimental design used in the study are discussed. Four numerical simulations are discussed and compared, including an adiabatic simulation that isolates the development of upper-level divergence along the axis of a subtropical jet streak and three other simulations that reveal the contributions of sensible and latent heat release in modifying lower-tropospheric wind fields and reducing the sea-level pressure. The formation of the LLJ is described through an evaluation of trajectories derived from the various model simulations. The effect of the LLJ on secondary cyclogenesis along the East Coast is described.

Impacts of Aerosol-Monsoon Interaction on Rainfall and Circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shi, Jainn-Jong; Matsui, T.; Chin, M.; Tan, Qian; Peters-Lidard, C.; Tao, W. K.

2016-01-01

The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all- India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. Using NASA Unified-physics Weather Research Forecast (NUWRF) model with fully interactive aerosol physics and dynamics, we carried out three sets of 7-day ensemble model forecast experiments: 1) control with no aerosol, 2) aerosol radiative effect only and 3) aerosol radiative and aerosol-cloud-microphysics effects, to study the impacts of aerosol monsoon interactions on monsoon variability over the NIHF during the summer of 2008. Results show that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), i.e., dust aerosol transport, and dynamical feedback processes induced by aerosol-radiative heating, plays a key role in altering the large scale monsoon circulation system, reflected by an increased north-south tropospheric temperature gradient, a northward shift of heavy monsoon rainfall, advancing the monsoon onset by 1-5 days over the HF, consistent with the EHP hypothesis (Lau et al. 2006). Additionally, we found that dust aerosols, via the semi-direct effect, increase atmospheric stability, and cause the dissipation of a developing monsoon onset cyclone over northeastern India northern Bay of Bengal. Eventually, in a matter of several days, ARI transforms the developing monsoon cyclone into mesoscale convective cells along the HF slopes. Aerosol-Cloud-microphysics Interaction (ACI) further enhances the ARI effect in invigorating the deep convection cells and speeding up the transformation processes. Results indicate that even in short-term (up to weekly) numerical forecasting of monsoon circulation and rainfall, effects of aerosol-monsoon interaction can be substantial and cannot be ignored.

A Subtropical Cyclone in the Canary Islands: the October 2014 event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quitian, Lara; Martin, Maria Luisa; Jesús González-Alemán, Juan; Santos-Muñoz, Daniel; Valero Rodríguez, Francisco

2016-04-01

Depending on the thermal structure and dynamics, there are different types of cyclones in the troposphere. Subtropical cyclones (STC) are low pressure systems that share tropical and extratropical characteristics, having hybrid thermal structures. In October 2014, a cyclonic system landfall the Canary Islands, causing widespread damages. The system began to develop in October 18 and its effects lasted until October 21. Here, the diagnosis and identification of such cyclone as STC is carried out, examining its dynamical and thermal evolution. Diverse fields have been obtained from three different numerical models, and several diagnostic tools and cyclone phase space diagrams have been used. The cyclone evolved from a typical extratropical cyclone, detached from the atmospheric circulation which was highly meridional and became a stationary cut-off low. The meridional intrusion of the trough as well as a low-level baroclinic zone favored the formation of a STC northwestern of the Canary Islands. Several cyclone phase space diagrams are used to classify the cyclone as a STC, highlighting a deep cold core in its early stages that develops into a shallow warm core. High potential vorticity areas associated with the cyclone promoted strong winds and precipitation over the Islands. Throughout the event, an increased conditional instability is observed in the different soundings, leading to strong vertical wind shear. Moreover, relatively warm sea surface temperature is obtained, establishing the conditions to favor the organization of long-lived convective structures.

A review of supercell and tornado dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies-Jones, Robert

2015-05-01

Thunderstorms that form in strong vertical wind shear often evolve into supercell storms. Supercells are well-organized, monolithic units of vigorous long-lasting convection. A classic supercell in its mature stage consists of a rotating updraft (mid-altitude mesocyclone) and a downdraft that coexists symbiotically with the updraft in an almost steady state. Doppler-radar and visual observations along with computer simulations reveal that tornadic supercells evolve through three stages. Firstly, the updraft starts rotating and a mesocyclone forms aloft, secondly a narrower vortex develops near the ground (thus completing a rotating column that extends from the ground to upper levels), and lastly a tornado forms from contraction of the near-ground cyclone. The updraft tilts environmental horizontal vorticity upwards. The updraft rotates cyclonically as a whole if this vorticity is streamwise in the updrafts' reference frame (i.e., in the direction of the storm-relative wind). Updraft rotation and motion are linked so a complete theory of mid-altitude mesocyclones requires an understanding of how supercells propagate. There are two principle propagation mechanisms; one is linear and the other is nonlinear. The process whereby rotation develops in rising air cannot explain how cyclonic rotation starts near the ground where updrafts and background vertical vorticity are normally weak. A near-ground cyclone does not form without a downdraft. In computer simulations, low-altitude air parcels with cyclonic vorticity have previously subsided in horizontal gradients of buoyancy that generate horizontal vorticity. During an air parcel's descent, its horizontal vorticity is first tipped downward into anticyclonic vorticity, but then upwards into cyclonic vorticity before it reaches the nadir of its trajectory because the vorticity vector is inclined upward relative to the velocity vector. The parcel then flows close to the ground into the updraft where its cyclonic vorticity is greatly amplified as it is stretched vertically. In simulations, this near-ground cyclone collapses into a tornado only if the model includes surface friction, which paradoxically causes the extreme upward and rotary winds. With friction, inflowing air parcels near the ground penetrate much closer to the rotation axis and revolve much faster despite some loss of angular momentum to the ground. Their extra kinetic energy comes from a further loss in their enthalpy.

The study of Merydunal and Zonal Index and its relationships with Cyclone Gonu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzatian, Victoria

2010-05-01

Distinguish the integrated natural disaster management is basic, also there happens rarely during 100 years. Cyclone Gonu, an unusually strong tropical cyclone, developed in the eastern part of the Arabian Sea on June 1st. The cyclone made landfall in Oman on the 6th with maximum sustained winds near 148 km/hr. A few days prior to landfall, Gonu had intensified to a powerful super cyclonic storm with maximum sustained winds near 260 km/hr on the 5th, becoming the first documented super cyclone in the Arabian Sea and tied for the strongest cyclone in the North Indian Ocean. After making landfall in Oman, Gonu moved through the Gulf of Oman making a second landfall in Iran. Tropical Cyclone Gonu affected more than 20,000 people and was responsible for 49 fatalities and 27 missing people in Oman. Gonu brought heavy rainfall which caused floods and landslides. Meanwhile in Iran 5 fatalities were reported and 9 people remain missing. Tropical cyclones as strong as Gonu are rare in the Arabian Sea. Severe thunderstorms, associated with an outer band of the tropical cyclone Yemyin , produced heavy rains and winds during June 23-25. The storms produced heavy rains which caused floodings and destroyed thousands of homes .Tropical Cyclone Yemyin developed as a depression in the Bay of Bengal on the 21st and made landfall in India's southern state on the 22nd. Yemyin brought heavy rain in the southern parts of India, leaving over 254 mm of rain. After crossing over India, Yemyin moved into the Arabian Sea and began moving towards the northwest. On June 26, the cyclone intensified and maximum sustained winds reached 93 km/hr. The cyclone was responsible for at least 21 fatalities in the Baluchistan province. Meanwhile in Afghanistan, Yemyin produced heavy rainfall which prompted floods that were responsible for 56 deaths and left thousands of people homeless . Because of these happenings we decided surveying the synoptic patterns in this month. Key words: Tropical cyclones, Tropical Cyclone Gonu, merridional index, zonal index .

Use of AIRS-derived Products in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis During the HS3 Field Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garms, E.; Knuteson, R. O.; Plokhenko, Y.; Smith, W.; Weisz, E.; Revercomb, H. E.; Ackerman, S. A.

2012-12-01

The high-resolution data collected during a field experiment is extremely valuable, but it is equally valuable to have observations that provide context for such in situ measurements. For this reason, satellite data coincident with observations taken from the Global Hawk UAVs during the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) field experiment are vital to a gaining a more complete understanding of tropical cyclone (TC) processes. The primary data used in this study are calibrated hyperspectral infrared radiances obtained from the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), onboard the Aqua satellite. AIRS measures upwelling Earth-emitted infrared spectra using more than 2300 IR channels between 3.7 and 15.4 microns. Several products derived from this high-spectral resolution data are used in this study. These products include a 3-D cloud amount vertical profile (CAVP) product as well as temperature and water vapor profiles retrieved using a Dual-Regression algorithm (DR), both of which were developed at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Space Science and Engineering Center (SSEC) Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS). The CAVP product will be used to measure the slope of the cloud tops of rainbands in a tropical cyclone. Observations from the UW Scanning High-resolution Interferometer Sounder (S-HIS), NASA Micro Pulse Lidar (MPL), and NCAR dropsondes taken during the 2012 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) field experiment will be used to validate the rainband slope analysis and the DR retrievals. The methodology behind the TC rainband slope analysis, which is hypothesized to correlate with TC intensity, will be discussed. This product will then be used to obtain a TC intensity estimate, which will be compared to other accepted intensity estimates like the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT), Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), and Satellite Consensus (SATCON) estimates. Additionally, the DR product will be used to characterize the environment around the rainband for each case. The purpose of this study is to determine the usefulness of a TC rainband slope index derived from AIRS L1B radiances in TC intensity analysis and short-term intensity change prediction. Examples of the TC rainband slope analysis, statistics for intensity estimate agreement with accepted intensity indices, and a possible correlation with intensity change will be presented. Conclusions regarding the utility of this measure in passively determining real-time intensity and intensity change of a TC will be discussed, along with applications for the duration of the HS3 experiment.

The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert

1999-01-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

Using Enabling Technologies to Advance Data Intensive Analysis Tools in the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knosp, B.; Gangl, M. E.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Kim, R. M.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P.; Niamsuwan, N.; Shen, T. P. J.; Turk, F. J.; Vu, Q. A.

2014-12-01

The JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) brings together satellite, aircraft, and model forecast data from several NASA, NOAA, and other data centers to assist researchers in comparing and analyzing data related to tropical cyclones. The TCIS has been supporting specific science field campaigns, such as the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) campaign and the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) campaign, by creating near real-time (NRT) data visualization portals. These portals are intended to assist in mission planning, enhance the understanding of current physical processes, and improve model data by comparing it to satellite and aircraft observations. The TCIS NRT portals allow the user to view plots on a Google Earth interface. To compliment these visualizations, the team has been working on developing data analysis tools to let the user actively interrogate areas of Level 2 swath and two-dimensional plots they see on their screen. As expected, these observation and model data are quite voluminous and bottlenecks in the system architecture can occur when the databases try to run geospatial searches for data files that need to be read by the tools. To improve the responsiveness of the data analysis tools, the TCIS team has been conducting studies on how to best store Level 2 swath footprints and run sub-second geospatial searches to discover data. The first objective was to improve the sampling accuracy of the footprints being stored in the TCIS database by comparing the Java-based NASA PO.DAAC Level 2 Swath Generator with a TCIS Python swath generator. The second objective was to compare the performance of four database implementations - MySQL, MySQL+Solr, MongoDB, and PostgreSQL - to see which database management system would yield the best geospatial query and storage performance. The final objective was to integrate our chosen technologies with our Joint Probability Density Function (Joint PDF), Wave Number Analysis, and Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) tools. In this presentation, we will compare the enabling technologies we tested and discuss which ones we selected for integration into the TCIS' data analysis tool architecture. We will also show how these techniques have been automated to provide access to NRT data through our analysis tools.

NASA Sees Large Tropical Cyclone Yasi Headed Toward Queensland, Australia

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

NASA image acquired January 30, 2011 at 23:20 UTC. Satellite: Terra Click here to see the most recent image captured Feb. 1: www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/5407540724/ Tropical Storm Anthony made landfall in Queensland, Australia this past weekend, and now the residents are watching a larger, more powerful cyclone headed their way. NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible image of the large Tropical Cyclone Yasi late yesterday as it makes its way west through the Coral Sea toward Queensland. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument that flies aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured an image of Cyclone Yasi on Jan. 30 at 23:20 UTC (6:20 p.m. EST/09:20 a.m., Monday, January 31 in Australia/Brisbane local time). Although the image did not reveal a visible eye, the storm appears to be well-formed and also appears to be strengthening. Warnings and watches are already in effect throughout the Coral Sea. The Solomon Islands currently have a Tropical Cyclone warning for the provinces of Temotu, Rennell & Bellona, Makira and Guadalcanal. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has already posted a Tropical Cyclone Watch from Cooktown to Yeppoon and inland to between Georgetown and Moranbah in Queensland, Australia. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology expects damaging winds to develop in coastal and island communities between Cooktown and Yeppoon Wednesday morning, and inland areas on Wednesday afternoon. Updates from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology can be monitored at the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au. On January 31 at 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST/ 1:00 a.m. Tuesday February 1, 2011 in Australia/Brisbane local time), Tropical Cyclone Yasi had maximum sustained winds near 90 knots (103 mph/166 kmh). Yasi is a Category Two Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It was centered about 875 miles E of Cairns, Australia, near 13.4 South latitude and 160.4 East longitude. It was moving west near 19 knots (22 mph/35 kmh). Cyclone-force winds extend out to 30 miles (48 km) from the center. Animated infrared satellite imagery, such as that from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) that flies on NASA's Aqua satellite, showed deep convective (thunderstorm) bands wrapping tighter into the low level circulation center. Wrapping bands of thunderstorms indicate strengthening. Yasi is forecast to move west then southwestward into an area of low vertical wind shear (strong wind shear can weaken a storm). Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) expect Yasi to continue strengthening over the next 36 hours. JTWC forecasts a landfall just south of Cairns as a large 100-plus knot (115 mph/185 kmh)n system by Wednesday. Residents along the Queensland coast should now be making preparations now for the storm's arrival. Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team Click here to see more images from MODIS NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Join us on Facebook

A-Train Based Observational Metrics for Model Evaluation in Extratropical Cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naud, Catherine M.; Booth, James F.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Posselt, Derek J.

2015-01-01

Extratropical cyclones contribute most of the precipitation in the midlatitudes, i.e. up to 70 during winter in the northern hemisphere, and can generate flooding, extreme winds, blizzards and have large socio-economic impacts. As such, it is important that general circulation models (GCMs) accurately represent these systems so their evolution in a warming climate can be understood. However, there are still uncertainties on whether warming will increase their frequency of occurrence, their intensity and how much rain or snow they bring. Part of the issue is that models have trouble representing their strength, but models also have biases in the amount of clouds and precipitation they produce. This is caused by potential issues in various aspects of the models: convection, boundary layer, and cloud scheme to only mention a few. In order to pinpoint which aspects of the models need improvement for a better representation of extratropical cyclone precipitation and cloudiness, we will present A-train based observational metrics: cyclone-centered, warm and cold frontal composites of cloud amount and type, precipitation rate and frequency of occurrence. Using the same method to extract similar fields from the model, we will present an evaluation of the GISS-ModelE2 and the IPSL-LMDZ-5B models, based on their AR5 and more recent versions. The AR5 version of the GISS model underestimates cloud cover in extratropical cyclones while the IPSL AR5 version overestimates it. In addition, we will show how the observed CloudSat-CALIPSO cloud vertical distribution across cold fronts changes with moisture amount and cyclone strength, and test if the two models successfully represent these changes. We will also show how CloudSat-CALIPSO derived cloud type (i.e. convective vs. stratiform) evolves across warm fronts as cyclones age, and again how this is represented in the models. Our third process-based analysis concerns cumulus clouds in the post-cold frontal region and how their amount relates to the stability of the boundary layer. This test uses Aqua cloud and vertical atmospheric profiles and when applied to the model output can help assess the accuracy of the convection, boundary layer and cloud scheme.

An evaluation of the precipitation distribution associated with landfalling tropical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atallah, Eyad H.

Several recent landfalling tropical cyclones (e.g. Dennis, Floyd, and Irene 1999) have highlighted a need for a refinement in the forecasting paradigms and techniques in the area of quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). Accordingly, several landfalling tropical storms were composited based on the precipitation distribution relative to the cyclone track (i.e. left of, right of, or along track), and cases from each composite were examined using a potential vorticity (PV) and quasi-geostrophic (QG) framework. Results indicate that a left of track precipitation distribution (e.g. Floyd 1999) is characteristic of tropical systems undergoing extratropical transition (ET). In these cases, a significant positively tilted mid-latitude trough approaches the cyclone from the northwest, shifting precipitation to the north-northwest of the cyclone. PV redistribution through diabatic heating then leads to enhanced ridging over and downstream of the tropical cyclone resulting in an increase in the cyclonic advection of vorticity by the thermal wind. Precipitation distribution is heaviest to the right of the track of the storm when downstream intensification of the ridge is important (e.g. David, 1979). Enhancement of the downstream ridge ahead of a weak mid-latitude trough accentuates the PV gradient between the tropical system and the downstream ridge. This, in combination with a slight acceleration in the movement of the tropical system, produces a region of enhanced positive PV advection (implied ascent) between the tropical system and the downstream ridge. Precipitation is heaviest along/very near the track of a storm when shear values are low and/or oriented along the track of the tropical cyclone (e.g. Fran 1996). Without large scale forcing for vertical motion associated with a midlatitude trough, most of the ascent remains concentrated near the storm core in the region of greatest diabatic heating and maximum wind speeds. In all cases, the diabatic enhancement of the downstream ridge is instrumental in the redistribution of precipitation about the tropical system. Unfortunately, this process is not well simulated in operational forecast models, leading to systematic errors in QPF.

Intercomparison of mid latitude storm diagnostics (IMILAST) - synthesis of project results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neu, Urs

2017-04-01

The analysis of the occurrence of mid-latitude storms is of great socio-economical interest due to their vast and destructive impacts. However, a unique definition of cyclones is missing, and therefore the definition of what a cyclone is as well as quantifying its strength contains subjective choices. Existing automatic cyclone identification and tracking algorithms are based on different definitions and use diverse characteristics, e.g. data transformation, metrics used for cyclone identification, cyclone identification procedures or tracking methods. The project IMILAST systematically compares different cyclone detection and tracking methods, with the aim to comprehensively assess the influence of different algorithms on cyclone climatologies, temporal trends of frequency, strength or other characteristics of cyclones and thus quantify systematic uncertainties in mid-latitudinal storm identification and tracking. The three main intercomparison experiments used the ERA-interim reanalysis as a common input data set and focused on differences between the methods with respect to number, track density, life cycle characteristics, and trend patterns on the one hand and potential differences of the long-term climate change signal of cyclonic activity between the methods on the other hand. For the third experiment, the intercomparison period has been extended to a 30 year period from 1979 to 2009 and focuses on more specific aspects, such as parameter sensitivities, the comparison of automated to manual tracking sets, regional analysis (regional trends, Arctic and Antarctic cyclones, cyclones in the Mediterranean) or specific phenomena like splitting and merging of cyclones. In addition, the representation of storms and their characteristics in reanalysis data sets is examined to further enhance the knowledge on uncertainties related to storm occurrence. This poster presents a synthesis of the main results from the intercomparison activities within IMILAST.

Detection of centers of tropical cyclones using Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Juhyun; Im, Jungho; Park, Seohui; Yoo, Cheolhee

2017-04-01

Tropical cyclones are one of major natural disasters, which results in huge damages to human and society. Analyzing behaviors and characteristics of tropical cyclones is essential for mitigating the damages by tropical cyclones. In particular, it is important to keep track of the centers of tropical cyclones. Cyclone center and track information (called Best Track) provided by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are widely used for the reference data of tropical cyclone centers. However, JTWC uses multiple resources including numerical modeling, geostationary satellite data, and in situ measurements to determine the best track in a subjective way and makes it available to the public 6 months later after an event occurred. Thus, the best track data cannot be operationally used to identify the centers of tropical cyclones in real time. In this study, we proposed an automated approach for identifying the centers of tropical cyclones using only Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) sensor derived data. It contains 5 bands—VIS (0.67µm), SWIR (3.7µm), WV (6.7µm), IR1 (10.8µm), and IR2 (12.0µm). We used IR1 band images to extract brightness temperatures of cloud tops over Western North Pacific between 2011 and 2012. The Angle deviation between brightness temperature-based gradient direction in a moving window and the reference angle toward the center of the window was extracted. Then, a spatial analysis index called circular variance was adopted to identify the centers of tropical cyclones based on the angle deviation. Finally, the locations of the minimum circular variance indexes were identified as the centers of tropical cyclones. While the proposed method has comparable performance for detecting cyclone centers in case of organized cloud convections when compared with the best track data, it identified the cyclone centers distant ( 2 degrees) from the best track centers for unorganized convections.

Serial Clustering of North Atlantic Cyclones and Wind Storms: A New Identification Base and Sensitivity to Intensity and Intra-Seasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Kirchner-Bossi, N. O.; Befort, D. J.; Ulbrich, U.

2015-12-01

Time-clustered mid-latitude winter storms are responsible for a large portion of the overall windstorm-related damage in Europe. Thus, its study entails a high meteorological interest, while its outcome can result in a crucial utility for the (re)insurance industry. In addition to existing cyclone-based studies, here we use an event identification approach based on surface near wind speeds only, to investigate windstorm clustering and compare it to cyclone clustering. Specifically, cyclone and windstorm tracks are identified for winter 1979-2013 (Oct-Mar), to perform two sensitivity analyses on event-clustering in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim Reanalysis. First, the link between clustering and cyclone intensity is analysed and compared to windstorms. Secondly, the sensitivity of clustering on intra-seasonal time scales is investigated, for both cyclones and windstorms. The wind-based approach reveals additional regions of clustering over Western Europe, which could be related to extreme damages, showing the added value of investigating wind field derived tracks in addition to that of cyclone tracks. Previous studies indicate a higher degree of clustering for stronger cyclones. However, our results show that this assumption is not always met. Although a positive relationship is confirmed for the clustering centre located over Iceland, clustering off the coast of the Iberian Peninsula behaves opposite. Even though this region shows the highest clustering, most of its signal is due to cyclones with intensities below the 70th percentile of the Laplacian of MSLP. Results on the sensitivity of clustering to the time of the winter season (Oct-Mar) show a temporal evolution of the clustering patterns, for both windstorms and cyclones. Compared to all cyclones, clustering of windstorms and strongest cyclones culminate around February, while all cyclone clustering peak in December to January.

The threat to coral reefs from more intense cyclones under climate change.

PubMed

Cheal, Alistair J; MacNeil, M Aaron; Emslie, Michael J; Sweatman, Hugh

2017-04-01

Ocean warming under climate change threatens coral reefs directly, through fatal heat stress to corals and indirectly, by boosting the energy of cyclones that cause coral destruction and loss of associated organisms. Although cyclone frequency is unlikely to rise, cyclone intensity is predicted to increase globally, causing more frequent occurrences of the most destructive cyclones with potentially severe consequences for coral reef ecosystems. While increasing heat stress is considered a pervasive risk to coral reefs, quantitative estimates of threats from cyclone intensification are lacking due to limited data on cyclone impacts to inform projections. Here, using extensive data from Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we show that increases in cyclone intensity predicted for this century are sufficient to greatly accelerate coral reef degradation. Coral losses on the outer GBR were small, localized and offset by gains on undisturbed reefs for more than a decade, despite numerous cyclones and periods of record heat stress, until three unusually intense cyclones over 5 years drove coral cover to record lows over >1500 km. Ecological damage was particularly severe in the central-southern region where 68% of coral cover was destroyed over >1000 km, forcing record declines in the species richness and abundance of associated fish communities, with many local extirpations. Four years later, recovery of average coral cover was relatively slow and there were further declines in fish species richness and abundance. Slow recovery of community diversity appears likely from such a degraded starting point. Highly unusual characteristics of two of the cyclones, aside from high intensity, inflated the extent of severe ecological damage that would more typically have occurred over 100s of km. Modelling published predictions of future cyclone activity, the likelihood of more intense cyclones within time frames of coral recovery by mid-century poses a global threat to coral reefs and dependent societies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: experiments with the high-resolution global icosahedral grid point model GME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumkar, Yogesh V.; Sen, P. N.; Chaudhari, Hemankumar S.; Oh, Jai-Ho

2018-02-01

In this paper, an attempt has been made to conduct a numerical experiment with the high-resolution global model GME to predict the tropical storms in the North Indian Ocean during the year 2007. Numerical integrations using the icosahedral hexagonal grid point global model GME were performed to study the evolution of tropical cyclones, viz., Akash, Gonu, Yemyin and Sidr over North Indian Ocean during 2007. It has been seen that the GME model forecast underestimates cyclone's intensity, but the model can capture the evolution of cyclone's intensity especially its weakening during landfall, which is primarily due to the cutoff of the water vapor supply in the boundary layer as cyclones approach the coastal region. A series of numerical simulation of tropical cyclones have been performed with GME to examine model capability in prediction of intensity and track of the cyclones. The model performance is evaluated by calculating the root mean square errors as cyclone track errors.

Effects of cyclone-generated disturbance on a tropical reef foraminifera assemblage.

PubMed

Strotz, Luke C; Mamo, Briony L; Dominey-Howes, Dale

2016-04-29

The sedimentary record, and associated micropalaeontological proxies, is one tool that has been employed to quantify a region's tropical cyclone history. Doing so has largely relied on the identification of allochthonous deposits (sediments and microfossils), sourced from deeper water and entrained by tropical cyclone waves and currents, in a shallow-water or terrestrial setting. In this study, we examine microfossil assemblages before and after a known tropical cyclone event (Cyclone Hamish) with the aim to better resolve the characteristics of this known signal. Our results identify no allochthonous material associated with Cyclone Hamish. Instead, using a swathe of statistical tools typical of ecological studies but rarely employed in the geosciences, we identify new, previously unidentified, signal types. These signals include a homogenising effect, with the level of differentiation between sample sites greatly reduced immediately following Cyclone Hamish, and discernible shifts in assemblage diversity. In the subsequent years following Hamish, the surface assemblage returns to its pre-cyclone form, but results imply that it is unlikely the community ever reaches steady state.

A statistical analysis of the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Todd W.

2016-07-01

Tropical cyclones often produce tornadoes that have the potential to compound the injury and fatality counts and the economic losses associated with tropical cyclones. These tornadoes do not occur uniformly through time or across space. Multiple statistical methods were used in this study to analyze the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency. Results indicate that there is an association between the two and that tropical cyclones tend to produce more tornadoes when they are weakening, but the association is weak. Tropical cyclones can also produce a substantial number of tornadoes when they are relatively stable or strengthening.

Objectively classifying Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catto, Jennifer

2016-04-01

There has been a long tradition in attempting to separate extratropical cyclones into different classes depending on their cloud signatures, airflows, synoptic precursors, or upper-level flow features. Depending on these features, the cyclones may have different impacts, for example in their precipitation intensity. It is important, therefore, to understand how the distribution of different cyclone classes may change in the future. Many of the previous classifications have been performed manually. In order to be able to evaluate climate models and understand how extratropical cyclones might change in the future, we need to be able to use an automated method to classify cyclones. Extratropical cyclones have been identified in the Southern Hemisphere from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset with a commonly used identification and tracking algorithm that employs 850 hPa relative vorticity. A clustering method applied to large-scale fields from ERA-Interim at the time of cyclone genesis (when the cyclone is first detected), has been used to objectively classify identified cyclones. The results are compared to the manual classification of Sinclair and Revell (2000) and the four objectively identified classes shown in this presentation are found to match well. The relative importance of diabatic heating in the clusters is investigated, as well as the differing precipitation characteristics. The success of the objective classification shows its utility in climate model evaluation and climate change studies.

Assessing the impact of cyclones in the coastal zone of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Judith; Bricheno, Lucy; Chowdury, Shahad; Rahman, Munsur; Ghosh, Tuhin; Kay, Susan; Caesar, John

2014-05-01

We review the state of knowledge regarding tropical cyclones and their impacts on coastal ecosystems, as well as the livelihood and health of the coastal communities, under the present and future climate, with application to the coastal zone of Bangladesh. This region is particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones as it is very low-lying and densely populated. Cyclones cause damage due to the high wind speed and also the ensuing storm surge, which causes inundation and salinity intrusion into agricultural land and contaminates fresh water. The world's largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, protects the coast of the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna (BGM) delta from these cyclonic storms but mangroves are themselves vulnerable to cyclone damage, as in 2007 when ~36% of the mangrove area was severely damaged leading to further losses of livelihood. We apply an idealised cyclone model and use the winds and pressures from this model to drive a storm surge model in the Bay of Bengal, in order to examine the impact of the intensity, track speed and landfall of the cyclones in terms of surge and inundation. The model is tested by reproducing the track and intensity of Cyclone Sidr of 2007. We also examine the projected future climate from the South Asia Regional Climate Model to understand how tropical cyclones may change under global warming and assess how this may impact the BGM Delta over the 21st century.

Evaluation of ERA-interim and MERRA Cloudiness in the Southern Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naud, Catherine M.; Booth, James F.; Del Genio, Anthony D.

2014-01-01

The Southern Ocean cloud cover modeled by the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and Modern- Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses are compared against Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) observations. ERA-Interim monthly mean cloud amounts match the observations within 5%, while MERRA significantly underestimates the cloud amount. For a compositing analysis of clouds in warm season extratropical cyclones, both reanalyses show a low bias in cloud cover. They display a larger bias to the west of the cyclones in the region of subsidence behind the cold fronts. This low bias is larger for MERRA than for ERA-Interim. Both MODIS and MISR retrievals indicate that the clouds in this sector are at a low altitude, often composed of liquid, and of a broken nature. The combined CloudSat-Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) cloud profiles confirm these passive observations, but they also reveal that low-level clouds in other parts of the cyclones are also not properly represented in the reanalyses. The two reanalyses are in fairly good agreement for the dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of the cyclones, suggesting that the cloud, convection, or boundary layer schemes are the problem instead. An examination of the lower-tropospheric stability distribution in the cyclones from both reanalyses suggests that the parameterization of shallow cumulus clouds may contribute in a large part to the problem. However, the differences in the cloud schemes and in particular in the precipitation processes, which may also contribute, cannot be excluded.

Aircraft borne combined measurements of the Fukushima radionuclide Xe-133 and fossil fuel combustion generated pollutants in the TIL - Implications for Cyclone induced lift and TIL physical-chemical processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, Frank; Schlager, Hans; Simgen, Hardy; Aufmhoff, Heinfried; Baumann, Robert; Lindemann, Sigfried; Rauch, Ludwig; Kaether, Frank; Pirjolla, Liisa; Schumann, Ulrich

2013-04-01

The radionuclide Xe-133, released by the March 2011 nuclear disaster at Fukushima/Daiichi (hereafter FD), represents an ideal tracer for atmospheric transport. We report the, to our best knowledge, only aircraft borne measurements of FD Xe-133 in the Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL), indicating rapid lift of Xe-133 rich planetary boundary layer air to the TIL. On the same research aircraft (FALCON), we have also conducted on-line measurements of fossil fuel combustion generated pollutant gases (SO2, NOx, HNO3,NOy), which were found to have increased concentrations in the TIL. In addition, we have conducted supporting model simulations of transport, chemical processes, and aerosol processes. Our investigations reveal a potentially important influence of East-Asian cyclone induced pollutants transport to the TIL, particularly influencing aerosol formation in the TIL.

Study of the impact of cyclogenesis at the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribo, M.; Llasat, C.

2009-09-01

The Mediterranean Basin is usually affected by high impact weather events, generating high impacts in all Mediterranean countries and causing important damages. This basin is surrounded by mountains and arid regions, and the interaction of the air flow with the orography barriers produces many effects, the most important is the formation of low pressure centers. This is one of the reasons why the Mediterranean Sea is considered to be the most cyclogenetic area in the world (Jansà, 1997). Floods are also one of the most important natural hazards in the Mediterranean Basin. Flood events occur when soil absorption, runoff or drainage cannot adequately disperse intense rainfall from quasi-stationary or stationary weather systems in short time periods. In some occasions these floods produce high social impact in the affected areas. Our work presents the study of the relationship between the flood episodes and the presence of cyclones in the Mediterranean Basin during those episodes, between 1990 and 2004. Information about social impact of each event has also been considered. To do these analyses the MEDEX database (MEDiterranean EXperiment on cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean) has been improved in the frame work of the European FLASH project, and information about cyclones and rainfall has been extracted from the MEDEX cyclones database. A total of 217 flood events had been identified. Once the presence of one or more cyclones during each flood episode has been identified, temporal and regional analyses were made to determine the distribution of the cyclonic centers and to study the evolution of the events. Mediterranean cyclogenesis is leaded by influence of external systems (along the African coast, from the Atlantic Ocean, and from the west of Europe), although the majority of the cyclones (87% of the studied cases) are generated in the Mediterranean Basin, under influence of preexistent systems. There are different Mediterranean cyclones, from weak mesoscale depressions to strong, intense and more extensive depressions, and are classified using different criteria. In our study each cyclone identified was characterized using two dynamic criteria: vertical structure and geostrophic circulation. The first characterization is based on the vertical profiles of the laplacian of temperature, depending on which atmospheric level is reached by the cyclone. The second characterization is based on the geostrophic circulation, defined with the geostrophic vorticity in the cyclone domain. From these two characterizations, we have classified the cyclonic centers into six different types: deep, medium and shallow; strong, moderate and weak cyclones. Results show that between 1990 and 2004, 25% of the days in this time period have recorded a flood event in the Mediterranean Basin, and 90.7% of these flood events were related to a cyclonic center. 57% of these events had been located at the western Mediterranean part, although some flood prone areas can be identified in all the Mediterranean Basin; Eastern Spain and Balearic Islands, northern of Italy (gulf of Genève), north of Africa (Sahara) and Cyprus and Turkey. Cyclones related with floods in the western part are mainly superficial cyclones. An important nucleus of deep cyclones related with floods can be found near Cyprus. The spatial distribution of cyclones related with floods, for the period from 1990 to 2004, is coherent with the general distribution of cyclones showed by Gil et al. 2002. There is a general tendency of increase of detected flood events with cyclonic center in the vicinity in the time period analyzed. A total of 4724 victims where counted during flood episodes. Results of the relationship between flood episodes and cyclonic centers show that 40% of the flood episodes with higher damages were related to weak cyclones.

Kinematic reversal schemes for the geomagnetic dipole.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levy, E. H.

1972-01-01

Fluctuations in the distribution of cyclonic convective cells, in the earth's core, can reverse the sign of the geomagnetic field. Two kinematic reversal schemes are discussed. In the first scheme, a field maintained by cyclones concentrated at low latitude is reversed by a burst of cyclones at high latitude. Conversely, in the second scheme, a field maintained predominantly by cyclones in high latitudes is reversed by a fluctuation consisting of a burst of cyclonic convection at low latitude. The precise fluid motions which produce the geomagnetic field are not known. However, it appears that, whatever the details are, a fluctuation in the distribution of cyclonic cells over latitude can cause a geomagnetic reversal.

Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2007-01-01

Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.

Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature

PubMed Central

Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

2015-01-01

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates. PMID:25761457

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll concentration is assessed in the western subtropical North Atlantic Ocean during 1998–2011. Previous studies in this area focused on individual cyclones and gave mixed results regarding the importance of tropical cyclone-induced mixing for changes in surface chlorophyll. Using a more integrated and comprehensive approach that includes quantification of cyclone-induced changes in mixed layer depth, here it is shown that accumulated cyclone energy explains 22% of the interannual variability in seasonally-averaged (June–November) chlorophyll concentration in the western subtropical North Atlantic, after removing the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The variance explainedmore » by tropical cyclones is thus about 70% of that explained by the NAO, which has well-known impacts in this region. It is therefore likely that tropical cyclones contribute significantly to interannual variations of primary productivity in the western subtropical North Atlantic during the hurricane season.« less

Global view of the upper level outflow patterns associated with tropical cyclone intensity changes during FGGE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, L.; Gray, W. M.

1985-01-01

The characteristics of the upper tropospheric outflow patterns which occur with tropical cyclone intensification and weakening over all of the global tropical cyclone basins during the year long period of the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) are discussed. By intensification is meant the change in the tropical cyclone's maximum wind or central pressure, not the change of the cyclone's outer 1 to 3 deg radius mean wind which we classify as cyclone strength. All the 80 tropical cyclones which existed during the FGGE year are studied. Two-hundred mb wind fields are derived from the analysis of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) which makes extensive use of upper tropospheric satellite and aircraft winds. Corresponding satellite cloud pictures from the polar orbiting U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and other supplementary polar and geostationary satellite data are also used.

The role of latent heat in kinetic energy conversions of South Pacific cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kann, Deirdre M.; Vincent, Dayton G.

1986-01-01

The four-dimensional behavior of cyclone systems in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is analyzed. Three cyclone systems, which occurred during the period from January 10-16, 1979, are examined using the data collected during the first special observing period of the FGGE. The effects of latent heating on the life cycles of the cyclones are investigated. Particular attention is given to the conversions of eddy available potential energy to eddy kinetic energy and of mean kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy. The net radiation profile, sensible heat flux, total field of vertical motion, and latent heat component were computed. The life cycles of the cyclones are described. It is observed that the latent heating component accounts for nearly all the conversion in the three cyclones, and latent heating within the SPCZ is the major source of eddy kinetic energy for the cyclones.

Associating extreme precipitation events to parent cyclones in gridded data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, Ruari; Shaffrey, Len; Gray, Sue

2015-04-01

When analysing the relationship of regional precipitation to its parent cyclone, it is insufficient to consider the cyclone's region of influence as a fixed radius from the centre due to the irregular shape of rain bands. A new method is therefore presented which allows the use of objective feature tracking data in the analysis of regional precipitation. Utilising the spatial extent of precipitation in gridded datasets, the most appropriate cyclone(s) may be associated with regional precipitation events. This method is applied in the context of an analysis of the influence of clustering and stalling of extra-tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic on total precipitation accumulations over England and Wales. Cyclone counts and residence times are presented for historical records (ERA-Interim) and future projections (HadGEM2-ES) of extreme (> 98th percentile) precipitation accumulations over England and Wales, for accumulation periods ranging from one day to one month.

Growing Land-Sea Temperature Contrast and the Intensification of Arctic Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, Jonathan J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2018-04-01

Cyclones play an important role in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system on a range of time scales. Modeling studies suggest that storminess will increase in Arctic summer due to enhanced land-sea thermal contrast along the Arctic coastline, in a region known as the Arctic Frontal Zone (AFZ). However, the climate models used in these studies are poor at reproducing the present-day Arctic summer cyclone climatology and so their projections of Arctic cyclones and related quantities, such as sea ice, may not be reliable. In this study we perform composite analysis of Arctic cyclone statistics using AFZ variability as an analog for climate change. High AFZ years are characterized both by increased cyclone frequency and dynamical intensity, compared to low years. Importantly, the size of the response in this analog suggests that General Circulation Models may underestimate the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change, given a similar change in baroclinicity.

Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean

PubMed Central

Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C.; Pasquero, Claudia

2013-01-01

Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean–atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback. PMID:23922393

Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean.

PubMed

Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia

2013-09-17

Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean-atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback.

Testing coral-based tropical cyclone reconstructions: An example from Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kilbourne, K. Halimeda; Moyer, Ryan P.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Grottoli, Andrea G.

2011-01-01

Complimenting modern records of tropical cyclone activity with longer historical and paleoclimatological records would increase our understanding of natural tropical cyclone variability on decadal to centennial time scales. Tropical cyclones produce large amounts of precipitation with significantly lower δ18O values than normal precipitation, and hence may be geochemically identifiable as negative δ18O anomalies in marine carbonate δ18O records. This study investigates the usefulness of coral skeletal δ18O as a means of reconstructing past tropical cyclone events. Isotopic modeling of rainfall mixing with seawater shows that detecting an isotopic signal from a tropical cyclone in a coral requires a salinity of ~ 33 psu at the time of coral growth, but this threshold is dependent on the isotopic composition of both fresh and saline end-members. A comparison between coral δ18O and historical records of tropical cyclone activity, river discharge, and precipitation from multiple sites in Puerto Rico shows that tropical cyclones are not distinguishable in the coral record from normal rainfall using this approach at these sites.

The ultimate mineral processing challenge: Recovery of rare earths, phosphorus and uranium from Florida phosphatic clay

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Patrick; Liang, Haijun; Jin, Zhen; ...

2017-11-01

We report phosphate beneficiation in Florida generates more than one tonne of phosphatic clay, or slime, per tonne of phosphate rock produced. Since the start of the practice of large-scale washing and desliming for phosphate beneficiation, more than 2 Gt of slime has accumulated, containing approximately 600 Mt of phosphate rock, 600 kt of rare earth elements (REEs) and 80 million kilograms of uranium. The recovery of these valuable elements from the phosphatic clay is one of the most challenging endeavors in mineral processing, because the clay is extremely dilute, with an average solids concentration of 3 percent, and finemore » in size, with more than 50 percent having particle size smaller than 2 μm, and it contains nearly 50 percent clay minerals as well as large amounts of magnesium, iron and aluminum. With industry support and under funding from the Critical Materials Institute, the Florida Industrial and Phosphate Research Institute in conjunction with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory undertook the task to recover phosphorus, rare earths and uranium from Florida phosphatic clay. This paper presents the results from the preliminary testing of two approaches. The first approach involves three-stage cycloning using cyclones with diameters of 12.4 cm (5 in.), 5.08 cm (2 in.) and 2.54 cm (1 in.), respectively, to remove clay minerals followed by flotation and leaching. The second approach is a two-step leaching process. In the first step, selective leaching was conducted to remove magnesium, thus allowing the production of phosphoric acid suitable for the manufacture of diammonium phosphate (DAP) in the second leaching step. The results showed that multistage cycloning with small cyclones is necessary to remove clay minerals. Finally, selective leaching at about pH 3.2 using sulfuric acid was found to be effective for removing more than 80 percent of magnesium from the feed with minimal loss of phosphorus.« less

The ultimate mineral processing challenge: Recovery of rare earths, phosphorus and uranium from Florida phosphatic clay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Patrick; Liang, Haijun; Jin, Zhen

We report phosphate beneficiation in Florida generates more than one tonne of phosphatic clay, or slime, per tonne of phosphate rock produced. Since the start of the practice of large-scale washing and desliming for phosphate beneficiation, more than 2 Gt of slime has accumulated, containing approximately 600 Mt of phosphate rock, 600 kt of rare earth elements (REEs) and 80 million kilograms of uranium. The recovery of these valuable elements from the phosphatic clay is one of the most challenging endeavors in mineral processing, because the clay is extremely dilute, with an average solids concentration of 3 percent, and finemore » in size, with more than 50 percent having particle size smaller than 2 μm, and it contains nearly 50 percent clay minerals as well as large amounts of magnesium, iron and aluminum. With industry support and under funding from the Critical Materials Institute, the Florida Industrial and Phosphate Research Institute in conjunction with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory undertook the task to recover phosphorus, rare earths and uranium from Florida phosphatic clay. This paper presents the results from the preliminary testing of two approaches. The first approach involves three-stage cycloning using cyclones with diameters of 12.4 cm (5 in.), 5.08 cm (2 in.) and 2.54 cm (1 in.), respectively, to remove clay minerals followed by flotation and leaching. The second approach is a two-step leaching process. In the first step, selective leaching was conducted to remove magnesium, thus allowing the production of phosphoric acid suitable for the manufacture of diammonium phosphate (DAP) in the second leaching step. The results showed that multistage cycloning with small cyclones is necessary to remove clay minerals. Finally, selective leaching at about pH 3.2 using sulfuric acid was found to be effective for removing more than 80 percent of magnesium from the feed with minimal loss of phosphorus.« less

Is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daloz, Anne Sophie; Camargo, Suzana J.

2018-01-01

A recent study showed that the global average latitude where tropical cyclones achieve their lifetime-maximum intensity has been migrating poleward at a rate of about one-half degree of latitude per decade over the last 30 years in each hemisphere. However, it does not answer a critical question: is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone lifetime-maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis? In this study we will examine this question. First we analyze changes in the environmental variables associated with tropical cyclone genesis, namely entropy deficit, potential intensity, vertical wind shear, vorticity, skin temperature and specific humidity at 500 hPa in reanalysis datasets between 1980 and 2013. Then, a selection of these variables is combined into two tropical cyclone genesis indices that empirically relate tropical cyclone genesis to large-scale variables. We find a shift toward greater (smaller) average potential number of genesis at higher (lower) latitudes over most regions of the Pacific Ocean, which is consistent with a migration of tropical cyclone genesis towards higher latitudes. We then examine the global best track archive and find coherent and significant poleward shifts in mean genesis position over the Pacific Ocean basins.

Spatially-explicit valuation of coastal wetlands for cyclone mitigation in Australia and China.

PubMed

Ouyang, Xiaoguang; Lee, Shing Yip; Connolly, Rod M; Kainz, Martin J

2018-02-14

Coastal wetlands are increasingly recognised for their pivotal role in mitigating the growing threats from cyclones (including hurricanes) in a changing climate. There is, however, insufficient information about the economic value of coastal wetlands for cyclone mitigation, particularly at regional scales. Analysis of data from 1990-2012 shows that the variation of cyclone frequencies is related to EI Niño strength in the Pacific Ocean adjacent to Australia, but not China. Among the cyclones hitting the two countries, there are significant relationships between the ratio of total economic damage to gross domestic production (TD/GDP) and wetland area within cyclone swaths in Australia, and wetland area plus minimum cyclone pressure despite a weak relationship in China. The TD/GDP ratio is significantly higher in China than in Australia. Despite their extensive and growing occurrence, seawalls in China appear not to play a critical role in cyclone mitigation, and cannot replace coastal wetlands, which provide other efficient ecosystem services. The economic values of coastal wetlands in Australia and China are respectively estimated at US$52.88 billion and 198.67 billion yr -1 for cyclone mitigation, albeit with large within-country geographic variation. This study highlights the urgency to integrate this value into existing valuations of coastal wetlands.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones and relationship with NAO and jet intensity based on the IMILAST cyclone database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulbrich, Sven; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Economou, Theodoros; Stephenson, David B.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Shaffrey, Len C.

2017-04-01

Cyclone families are a frequent synoptic weather feature in the Euro-Atlantic area, particularly during wintertime. Given appropriate large-scale conditions, such series (clusters) of storms may cause large socio-economic impacts and cumulative losses. Recent studies analyzing reanalysis data using single cyclone tracking methods have shown that serial clustering of cyclones occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. Based on winter (DJF) cyclone counts from the IMILAST cyclone database, we explore the representation of serial clustering in the ERA-Interim period and its relationship with the NAO-phase and jet intensity. With this aim, clustering is estimated by the dispersion of winter (DJF) cyclone passages for each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. Results indicate that clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe can be identified for all methods, although the exact location and the dispersion magnitude may vary. The relationship between clustering and (i) the NAO-phase and (ii) jet intensity over the North Atlantic is statistically evaluated. Results show that the NAO-index and the jet intensity show a strong contribution to clustering, even though some spread is found between methods. We conclude that the general features of clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western Europe are robust to the choice of tracking method. The same is true for the influence of the NAO and jet intensity on cyclone dispersion.

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patwardhan, A.; Paliwal, M.; Mohapatra, M.

2011-12-01

Cyclones are regarded as one of the most dangerous meteorological phenomena of the tropical region. The probability of landfall of a tropical cyclone depends on its movement (trajectory). Analysis of trajectories of tropical cyclones could be useful for identifying potentially predictable characteristics. There is long history of analysis of tropical cyclones tracks. A common approach is using different clustering techniques to group the cyclone tracks on the basis of certain characteristics. Various clustering method have been used to study the tropical cyclones in different ocean basins like western North Pacific ocean (Elsner and Liu, 2003; Camargo et al., 2007), North Atlantic Ocean (Elsner, 2003; Gaffney et al. 2007; Nakamura et al., 2009). In this study, tropical cyclone tracks in the North Indian Ocean basin, for the period 1961-2010 have been analyzed and grouped into clusters based on their spatial characteristics. A tropical cyclone trajectory is approximated as an open curve and described by its first two moments. The resulting clusters have different centroid locations and also differently shaped variance ellipses. These track characteristics are then used in the standard clustering algorithms which allow the whole track shape, length, and location to be incorporated into the clustering methodology. The resulting clusters have different genesis locations and trajectory shapes. We have also examined characteristics such as life span, maximum sustained wind speed, landfall, seasonality, many of which are significantly different across the identified clusters. The clustering approach groups cyclones with higher maximum wind speed and longest life span in to one cluster. Another cluster includes short duration cyclonic events that are mostly deep depressions and significant for rainfall over Eastern and Central India. The clustering approach is likely to prove useful for analysis of events of significance with regard to impacts.

Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones and their Relationship with ENSO in springtime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reboita, M. S.; Ambrizzi, T.; Da Rocha, R.

2013-05-01

Extratropical cyclones occurrence is associated with the teleconnection mechanisms that produce climate variability. Among these mechanisms we have El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some works have indicated that during the ENSO positive phase there are more cyclogenetic conditions in some parts of the globe as the southwest of South Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify if the extratropical cyclones number and location are altered in the different ENSO phases in the austral spring over the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The Melbourne University automatic tracking scheme was used to determine the cyclone climatology from 1980 to 2012. All cyclones that appear with lifetime higher or equal to 24 hours in the sea level pressure data from National Centers for Environment Prediction reanalysis I were included in the climatology. El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN) and Neutral (N) years were identified through the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA. The average number of cyclones in the spring over the SH is similar in the EN (200), N (184) and LN (197) episodes. By latitude bands, during EN episodes the cyclones occurrence reduces in 16% between 70-60 degrees and increases in ~15% between 80-70 and 50-40 degrees. On the other hand, during the LN episodes, the cyclones are 17% more frequent in 50-60 degrees and 22% less frequent in 30-20 degrees. One more detailed analysis of the cyclones trajectory density (that is a statistic product of the tracking algorithm) shows that in the South Atlantic Ocean, near the southeast of South America, the number of cyclones in EN years is higher than in the neutral period and lower than in the LN years. In the Indian Ocean, the EN year is characterized by a cyclones reduction in the west and east sector, near the continents. In the Pacific Ocean, the region southward the New Zealand presents more cyclones occurrence in EN years.

The great 2012 Arctic Ocean summer cyclone enhanced biological productivity on the shelves

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jinlun; Ashjian, Carin; Campbell, Robert; Hill, Victoria; Spitz, Yvette H; Steele, Michael

2014-01-01

[1] A coupled biophysical model is used to examine the impact of the great Arctic cyclone of early August 2012 on the marine planktonic ecosystem in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean (PSA). Model results indicate that the cyclone influences the marine planktonic ecosystem by enhancing productivity on the shelves of the Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev seas during the storm. Although the cyclone's passage in the PSA lasted only a few days, the simulated biological effects on the shelves last 1 month or longer. At some locations on the shelves, primary productivity (PP) increases by up to 90% and phytoplankton biomass by up to 40% in the wake of the cyclone. The increase in zooplankton biomass is up to 18% on 31 August and remains 10% on 15 September, more than 1 month after the storm. In the central PSA, however, model simulations indicate a decrease in PP and plankton biomass. The biological gain on the shelves and loss in the central PSA are linked to two factors. (1) The cyclone enhances mixing in the upper ocean, which increases nutrient availability in the surface waters of the shelves; enhanced mixing in the central PSA does not increase productivity because nutrients there are mostly depleted through summer draw down by the time of the cyclone's passage. (2) The cyclone also induces divergence, resulting from the cyclone's low-pressure system that drives cyclonic sea ice and upper ocean circulation, which transports more plankton biomass onto the shelves from the central PSA. The simulated biological gain on the shelves is greater than the loss in the central PSA, and therefore, the production on average over the entire PSA is increased by the cyclone. Because the gain on the shelves is offset by the loss in the central PSA, the average increase over the entire PSA is moderate and lasts only about 10 days. The generally positive impact of cyclones on the marine ecosystem in the Arctic, particularly on the shelves, is likely to grow with increasing summer cyclone activity if the Arctic continues to warm and the ice cover continues to shrink. PMID:26213671

The great 2012 Arctic Ocean summer cyclone enhanced biological productivity on the shelves.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinlun; Ashjian, Carin; Campbell, Robert; Hill, Victoria; Spitz, Yvette H; Steele, Michael

2014-01-01

[1] A coupled biophysical model is used to examine the impact of the great Arctic cyclone of early August 2012 on the marine planktonic ecosystem in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean (PSA). Model results indicate that the cyclone influences the marine planktonic ecosystem by enhancing productivity on the shelves of the Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev seas during the storm. Although the cyclone's passage in the PSA lasted only a few days, the simulated biological effects on the shelves last 1 month or longer. At some locations on the shelves, primary productivity (PP) increases by up to 90% and phytoplankton biomass by up to 40% in the wake of the cyclone. The increase in zooplankton biomass is up to 18% on 31 August and remains 10% on 15 September, more than 1 month after the storm. In the central PSA, however, model simulations indicate a decrease in PP and plankton biomass. The biological gain on the shelves and loss in the central PSA are linked to two factors. (1) The cyclone enhances mixing in the upper ocean, which increases nutrient availability in the surface waters of the shelves; enhanced mixing in the central PSA does not increase productivity because nutrients there are mostly depleted through summer draw down by the time of the cyclone's passage. (2) The cyclone also induces divergence, resulting from the cyclone's low-pressure system that drives cyclonic sea ice and upper ocean circulation, which transports more plankton biomass onto the shelves from the central PSA. The simulated biological gain on the shelves is greater than the loss in the central PSA, and therefore, the production on average over the entire PSA is increased by the cyclone. Because the gain on the shelves is offset by the loss in the central PSA, the average increase over the entire PSA is moderate and lasts only about 10 days. The generally positive impact of cyclones on the marine ecosystem in the Arctic, particularly on the shelves, is likely to grow with increasing summer cyclone activity if the Arctic continues to warm and the ice cover continues to shrink.

Moisture transport and Atmospheric circulation in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Cian; Caballero, Rodrigo

2013-04-01

Cyclones are an important feature of the Mid-Latitudes and Arctic Climates. They are a main transporter of warm moist energy from the sub tropics to the poles. The Arctic Winter is dominated by highly stable conditions for most of the season due to a low level temperature inversion caused by a radiation deficit at the surface. This temperature inversion is a ubiquitous feature of the Arctic Winter Climate and can persist for up to weeks at a time. The inversion can be destroyed during the passage of a cyclone advecting moisture and warming the surface. In the absence of an inversion, and in the presence of this warm moist air mass, clouds can form quite readily and as such influence the radiative processes and energy budget of the Arctic. Wind stress caused by a passing cyclones also has the tendency to cause break-up of the ice sheet by induced rotation, deformation and divergence at the surface. For these reasons, we wish to understand the mechanisms of warm moisture advection into the Arctic from lower latitudes and how these mechanisms are controlled. The body of work in this area has been growing and gaining momentum in recent years (Stramler et al. 2011; Morrison et al. 2012; Screen et al. 2011). However, there has been no in depth analysis of the underlying dynamics to date. Improving our understanding of Arctic dynamics becomes increasingly important in the context of climate change. Many models agree that a northward shift of the storm track is likely in the future, which could have large impacts in the Arctic, particularly the sea ice. A climatology of six-day forward and backward trajectories starting from multiple heights around 70 N is constructed using the 22 year ECMWF reanalysis dataset (ERA-INT). The data is 6 hourly with a horizontal resolution of 1 degree on 16 pressure levels. Our methodology here is inspired by previous studies examining flow patterns through cyclones in the mid-latitudes. We apply these earlier mid-latitude methods in the Arctic. We investigate an Arctic trajectory dataset and provide a phenomenological/descriptive analysis of these trajectories, including key meteorological variables carried along trajectories. The trajectory climatology is linked to a previously established cyclone climatology dataset from Hanley and Caballero (2011). We associate trajectories and the meteorological variables they are carrying to cyclones in this dataset. A climatology of 'Arctic-influencing' cyclones is constructed from the cyclone dataset. The resilience of the polar vortex and its effect on circulation, via blocking and breaking, is examined in relation to our trajectory climatology.

Hurricanes: The Consequences of the Energy Equivalent of a 10-megaton Nuclear Bomb Exploding Every 20 Minutes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rappaport, E. N.

2003-12-01

Through the ages tropical cyclones have killed and maimed millions of people, devastated economies, and profoundly altered physical and political landscapes. Both the nature of the threat and the human response have evolved. The largest losses of life have shifted with the population, from on the sea during the era of global exploration, to the coastline and, now, increasingly to inland areas. At the same time, the primary threat has changed from winds and waves to storm surge and freshwater floods. An international and multidisciplinary collaboration over the past half century has focused on identifying and minimizing tropical cyclone risks through advancing operational hurricane forecasting, improving communications systems, and heightening public awareness. In the United States, meteorologists and emergency managers work together closely to reduce the frequency of the most catastrophic outcomes. This paper reviews the most significant historical impacts, the contemporary challenges, and highlights of the most successful current mitigation strategies of the U.S. hurricane warning program.

Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones

PubMed Central

Glenn, S. M.; Miles, T. N.; Seroka, G. N.; Xu, Y.; Forney, R. K.; Yu, F.; Roarty, H.; Schofield, O.; Kohut, J.

2016-01-01

Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward. PMID:26953963

Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murakami, Hiroyuki; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Underwood, Seth

2017-12-01

In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s-1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications.

Simulated sensitivity of the tropical cyclone eyewall replacement cycle to the ambient temperature profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xulin; He, Jie; Ge, Xuyang

2017-09-01

In this study, the impacts of the environmental temperature profile on the tropical cyclone eyewall replacement cycle are examined using idealized numerical simulations. It is found that the environmental thermal condition can greatly affect the formation and structure of a secondary eyewall and the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle. Simulation with a warmer thermal profile produces a larger moat and a prolonged eyewall replacement cycle. It is revealed that the enhanced static stability greatly suppresses convection, and thus causes slow secondary eyewall formation. The possible processes influencing the decay of inner eyewall convection are investigated. It is revealed that the demise of the inner eyewall is related to a choking effect associated with outer eyewall convection, the radial distribution of moist entropy fluxes within the moat region, the enhanced static stability in the inner-core region, and the interaction between the inner and outer eyewalls due to the barotropic instability. This study motivates further research into how environmental conditions influence tropical cyclone dynamics and thermodynamics.

Study of Electro-Cyclonic Filtration and Pneumatic Transfer of Lunar Regolith Simulants under 1/6-g and 1-g Gravity Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mantovani, James G.; Townsend, Ivan I.; Mueller, Robert P.

2009-01-01

NASA has built a prototype oxygen production plant to process the lunar regolith using the hydrogen reduction chemical process. This plant is known as "ROxygen - making oxygen from moon rocks". The ROxygen regolith transfer team has identified the flow and transfer characteristics of lunar regolith simulant to be a concern for lunar oxygen production efforts. It is important to ISRU lunar exploration efforts to develop hardware designs that can demonstrate the ability to flow and transfer a given mass of regolith simulant to a desired vertical height under lunar gravity conditions in order to introduce it into a reactor. We will present results obtained under both 1/6-g and 1-g gravity conditions for a system that can pneumatically convey 16.5 kg of lunar regolith simulant (NU-LHT-2M, Mauna Kea Tephra, and JSC-1A) from a flat-bottom supply hopper to a simulated ISRU reactor (dual-chambered receiving hopper) where the granular material is separated from the convey gas (air) using a series of cyclone separators, one of which is an electrically enhanced cyclone separator (electrocyclone). The results of our study include (1) the mass flow rate as a function of input air pressure for lunar regolith simulants that are conveyed pneumatically as a dusty gas in a vertical direction against gravity under lunar gravity conditions (for NU-LHT-2M and Mauna Kea Tephra), and under earth gravity conditions (for NU-LHT-2M, Mauna Kea Tephra and JSC-1A), and (2) the efficiency of the cyclone/electrocyclone filtration system in separating the convey gas (air) from the granular particulates as a function of particle size.

Development of Lightning Observation Network in the Western Pacific Region for the Intensity Prediction of Severe Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, M.; Takahashi, Y.; Yamashita, K.; Kubota, H.; Hamada, J. I.; Momota, E.; Marciano, J. J.

2017-12-01

Lightning activity represents the thunderstorm activity, that is, the precipitation and/or updraft intensity and area. Thunderstorm activity is also an important parameter in terms of the energy inputs from the ocean to the atmosphere inside tropical cyclone, which is one of severe weather events. Recent studies suggest that it is possible to predict the maximum wind velocity and minimum pressure near the center of the tropical cyclone by one or two days before if we monitor the lightning activities in the tropical cyclone. Many countries in the western Pacific region suffer from the attack of tropical cyclone (typhoon) and have a strong demand to predict the intensity development of typhoons. Thus, we started developing a new lightning observation system and installing the observation system at Guam, Palau, and Manila in the Philippines from this summer. The lightning observation system consists of a VLF sensor detecting lightning-excited electromagnetic waves in the frequency range of 1-5 kHz, an automatic data-processing unit, solar panels, and batteries. Lightning-excited pulse signals detected by the VLF sensor are automatically analyzed by the data-processing unit, and only the extracted information of the trigger time and pulse amplitude is transmitted to a data server via the 3G data communications. In addition, we are now developing an upgraded lightning and weather observation system, which will be installed at 50 automated weather stations in Metro Manila and 10 radar sites in the Philippines under the 5-year project (SATREPS) scheme. At the presentation, we will show the initial results derived from the lightning observation system in detail and will show the detailed future plan of the SATREPS project.

A numerical experiment on the formation of the tropopause inversion layer associated with an explosive cyclogenesis: possible role of gravity waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otsuka, Shigenori; Takeshita, Megumi; Yoden, Shigeo

2014-12-01

The tropopause inversion layer (TIL) is a persistent layer with high static stability. Although some mechanisms for the formation of the TIL have been proposed, the time evolution of the TIL under realistic conditions especially when factoring in the contribution of small-scale processes such as gravity waves is not well understood. To gain an understanding of this factor, we conducted a numerical experiment on an explosive cyclogenesis in mid-latitudes using a nonhydrostatic regional atmospheric model. Although the TIL in the model is consistent with previous observations in the sense that it is stronger in the negative vorticity areas, the relationship is clear only in the development and mature stages of a cyclone, suggesting that the evolution of the cyclone plays an important role in the formation of the TIL. To ascertain the effects of gravity waves on the TIL, vertical convergence at the tropopause is analyzed. Histograms of maximum buoyancy frequency squared within the TIL show that regions of vertical convergence have higher , in addition to regions with high ∂ 2 w/ ∂ z 2, implying that waves having downward phase propagation also play an important role in the dynamical formation of the TIL. This tendency is clearer in regions of negative relative vorticity at the tropopause. By taking account of the fact that the gravity wave activities associated with the cyclone and the jet streak are enhanced during the development and mature stages of the cyclone, vertical convergence due to gravity waves associated with synoptic weather systems can be seen to be a key process in the formation of the negative correlation between the strength of the TIL and the local relative vorticity at the tropopause.

40 CFR 63.11623 - What are the testing requirements?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...? (a) If you are demonstrating that the cyclone required by § 63.11621(e) is designed to reduce... A to part 60 to determine the particulate matter mass rate at the inlet and outlet of the cyclone. You must conduct at least three runs at the cyclone inlet and three runs at the cyclone outlet. Each...

40 CFR 63.11623 - What are the testing requirements?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...? (a) If you are demonstrating that the cyclone required by § 63.11621(e) is designed to reduce... A to part 60 to determine the particulate matter mass rate at the inlet and outlet of the cyclone. You must conduct at least three runs at the cyclone inlet and three runs at the cyclone outlet. Each...

Properties and circulation of Jupiter's circumpolar cyclones as measured by JunoCam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orton, G. S.; Eichstaedt, G.; Rogers, J. H.; Hansen, C. J.; Caplinger, M.; Momary, T.; Tabataba-Vakili, F.; Intersoll, A. P.

2017-09-01

JunoCam has taken the first high-resolution visible images of Jupiter's poles, which show that each pole has a cluster of circumpolar cyclones, each one separated in longitude by roughly equal spacing. There are five at the south pole and eight at the north pole. These configurations, including their asymmetries and the characteristics of individual cyclones, have remained stable over 7 months from perijove 1 to perijove 5 as of this writing. Each cyclone has a circular outline with a prominent system of trailing spiral arms. In the north, the internal morphology of adjacent cyclones alternates from one to the next. Angular motions within each cyclone appear to be similar to each other but quite different from vortices at lower latitudes.

Extratropical Cyclone

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-16

... using data from multiple MISR cameras within automated computer processing algorithms. The stereoscopic algorithms used to generate ... NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C. The Terra spacecraft is managed ...

An inter-decadal increase in summer sea level pressure over the Mongolian region around the early 1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Haiyan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Li, Xiuzhen; Chen, Ruidan

2018-05-01

The East Asian summer monsoon is affected by processes in the mid-high latitudes in addition to various tropical and subtropical systems. The present study investigates the summer sea level pressure (SLP) variability over northern East Asia (NEA) and emphasizes the closed active center over the Mongolian region. It is found that the seasonal mean Mongolian SLP (MSLP) anomaly is closely connected with the variability of summertime regional synoptic extra-tropical cyclones on longer time scales. A significant inter-decadal increase in the MSLP around the early 1990s has been detected, which is accompanied by a weakening in the activity of regional extra-tropical cyclones. Recent warming over NEA may have a contribution to the inter-decadal change, which features evidently meridional inhomogeneity around 45°N. The inhomogeneous air temperature anomaly distribution results in decreased vertical wind shear, reduced atmospheric baroclinicity over the Mongolian region, and thus inactive regional cyclones and increased MSLP in the latter decade. The associated temperature anomaly distribution may be partly attributed to regional inhomogeneity in cloud and radiation anomalies, and it is further maintained by two positive feedback mechanisms associated with atmospheric internal processes: one via adiabatic heating and the other via horizontal temperature advection.

Impact of parameterization of physical processes on simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclone Nargis (2008) with WRF-NMM model.

PubMed

Pattanayak, Sujata; Mohanty, U C; Osuri, Krishna K

2012-01-01

The present study is carried out to investigate the performance of different cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer, land surface processes, and microphysics parameterization schemes in the simulation of a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Nargis (2008), developed in the central Bay of Bengal on 27 April 2008. For this purpose, the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM) dynamic core of weather research and forecasting (WRF) system is used. Model-simulated track positions and intensity in terms of minimum central mean sea level pressure (MSLP), maximum surface wind (10 m), and precipitation are verified with observations as provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The estimated optimum combination is reinvestigated with six different initial conditions of the same case to have better conclusion on the performance of WRF-NMM. A few more diagnostic fields like vertical velocity, vorticity, and heat fluxes are also evaluated. The results indicate that cumulus convection play an important role in the movement of the cyclone, and PBL has a crucial role in the intensification of the storm. The combination of Simplified Arakawa Schubert (SAS) convection, Yonsei University (YSU) PBL, NMM land surface, and Ferrier microphysics parameterization schemes in WRF-NMM give better track and intensity forecast with minimum vector displacement error.

Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy

2013-10-19

Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias inmore » the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are resented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices.« less

The Human Impact of Tropical Cyclones: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Doocy, Shannon; Dick, Anna; Daniels, Amy; Kirsch, Thomas D.

2013-01-01

Background. Cyclones have significantly affected populations in Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, and the Americas over the past quarter of a century. Future vulnerability to cyclones will increase due to factors including population growth, urbanization, increasing coastal settlement, and global warming. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of cyclones on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of cyclones were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1980 to 2009 of cyclone events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between cyclone characteristics and mortality using Stata 11.0. Findings. There were 412,644 deaths, 290,654 injured, and 466.1 million people affected by cyclones between 1980 and 2009, and the mortality and injury burden was concentrated in less developed nations of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of cyclone-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries male gender was associated with increased mortality risk, whereas females experienced higher mortality in less developed countries. Conclusions. Additional attention to preparedness and early warning, particularly in Asia, can lessen the impact of future cyclones. PMID:23857074

Aerosol midlatitude cyclone indirect effects in observations and high-resolution simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, Daniel T.; Field, Paul R.; Schmidt, Anja; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Bender, Frida A.-M.; Shipway, Ben J.; Hill, Adrian A.; Wilkinson, Jonathan M.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.

2018-04-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions are a major source of uncertainty in inferring the climate sensitivity from the observational record of temperature. The adjustment of clouds to aerosol is a poorly constrained aspect of these aerosol-cloud interactions. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude cyclone cloud properties to a change in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Idealized experiments in high-resolution, convection-permitting global aquaplanet simulations with constant CDNC are compared to 13 years of remote-sensing observations. Observations and idealized aquaplanet simulations agree that increased warm conveyor belt (WCB) moisture flux into cyclones is consistent with higher cyclone liquid water path (CLWP). When CDNC is increased a larger LWP is needed to give the same rain rate. The LWP adjusts to allow the rain rate to be equal to the moisture flux into the cyclone along the WCB. This results in an increased CLWP for higher CDNC at a fixed WCB moisture flux in both observations and simulations. If observed cyclones in the top and bottom tercile of CDNC are contrasted it is found that they have not only higher CLWP but also cloud cover and albedo. The difference in cyclone albedo between the cyclones in the top and bottom third of CDNC is observed by CERES to be between 0.018 and 0.032, which is consistent with a 4.6-8.3 Wm-2 in-cyclone enhancement in upwelling shortwave when scaled by annual-mean insolation. Based on a regression model to observed cyclone properties, roughly 60 % of the observed variability in CLWP can be explained by CDNC and WCB moisture flux.

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results frommore » other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Lastly, further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.« less

Multiple Satellite Observations of Cloud Cover in Extratropical Cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naud, Catherine M.; Booth, James F.; Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

2013-01-01

Using cloud observations from NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer, and CloudSat-CALIPSO, composites of cloud fraction in southern and northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones are obtained for cold and warm seasons between 2006 and 2010, to assess differences between these three data sets, and between summer and winter cyclones. In both hemispheres and seasons, over the open ocean, the cyclone-centered cloud fraction composites agree within 5% across the three data sets, but behind the cold fronts, or over sea ice and land, the differences are much larger. To supplement the data set comparison and learn more about the cyclones, we also examine the differences in cloud fraction between cold and warm season for each data set. The difference in cloud fraction between cold and warm season southern hemisphere cyclones is small for all three data sets, but of the same order of magnitude as the differences between the data sets. The cold-warm season contrast in northern hemisphere cyclone cloud fractions is similar for all three data sets: in the warm sector, the cold season cloud fractions are lower close to the low, but larger on the equator edge than their warm season counterparts. This seasonal contrast in cloud fraction within the cyclones warm sector seems to be related to the seasonal differences in moisture flux within the cyclones. Our analysis suggests that the three different data sets can all be used confidently when studying the warm sector and warm frontal zone of extratropical cyclones but caution should be exerted when studying clouds in the cold sector.

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

DOE PAGES

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; ...

2015-06-01

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results frommore » other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Lastly, further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.« less

A satellite observational and numerical study of precipitation characteristics in western North Atlantic tropical cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Chang, Simon W.; Pierce, Harold F.

1994-01-01

Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) observations were used to examine the spatial and temporal changes of the precipitation characteristics of tropical cyclones. SSM/I observations were also combined with the results of a tropical cyclone numerical model to examine the role of inner-core diabatic heating in subsequent intensity changes of tropical cyclones. Included in the SSM/I observations were rainfall characteristics of 18 named western North Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1987 and 1989. The SSM/I rain-rate algorithm that employed the 85-GHz channel provided an analysis of the rain-rate distribution in greater detail. However, the SSM/I algorithm underestimated the rain rates when compared to in situ techniques but appeared to be comparable to the rain rates obtained from other satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers. The analysis of SSM/I observations found that more intense systems had higher rain rates, more latent heat release, and a greater contribution from heavier rain to the total tropical cyclone rainfall. In addition, regions with the heaviest rain rates were found near the center of the most intense tropical cyclones. Observational analysis from SSM/I also revealed that the greatest rain rates in the inner-core regions were found in the right half of fast-moving cyclones, while the heaviest rain rates in slow-moving tropical cyclones were found in the forward half. The combination of SSM/I observations and an interpretation of numerical model simulations revealed that the correlation between changes in the inner core diabetic heating and the subsequent intensity became greater as the tropical cyclones became more intense.

Evaluation of Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation in the North Atlantic Basin: An analysis of ERA-Interim, WRF, and two CMIP5 models.

PubMed

Booth, James F; Naud, Catherine M; Willison, Jeff

2018-03-01

The representation of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) and a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is analyzed. This work considers the link between ETC precipitation and dynamical strength and tests if parameterized convection affects this link for ETCs in the North Atlantic Basin. Lagrangian cyclone tracks of ETCs in ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), the GISS and GFDL CMIP5 models, and WRF with two horizontal resolutions are utilized in a compositing analysis. The 20-km resolution WRF model generates stronger ETCs based on surface wind speed and cyclone precipitation. The GCMs and ERAI generate similar composite means and distributions for cyclone precipitation rates, but GCMs generate weaker cyclone surface winds than ERAI. The amount of cyclone precipitation generated by the convection scheme differs significantly across the datasets, with GISS generating the most, followed by ERAI and then GFDL. The models and reanalysis generate relatively more parameterized convective precipitation when the total cyclone-averaged precipitation is smaller. This is partially due to the contribution of parameterized convective precipitation occurring more often late in the ETC life cycle. For reanalysis and models, precipitation increases with both cyclone moisture and surface wind speed, and this is true if the contribution from the parameterized convection scheme is larger or not. This work shows that these different models generate similar total ETC precipitation despite large differences in the parameterized convection, and these differences do not cause unexpected behavior in ETC precipitation sensitivity to cyclone moisture or surface wind speed.

The contribution of sting-jet windstorms to extreme wind risk in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Neil C.; Gray, Suzanne L.; Clark, Peter A.

2016-04-01

Windstorms are a major winter weather risk for many countries in Europe. These storms are predominantly associated with explosively-developing extratropical cyclones that track across the region. A substantial body of literature exists on the synoptic-scale dynamics, predictability and climatology of such storms. More recently, interest in the mesoscale variability of the most damaging winds has led to a focus on the role of sting jets in enhancing windstorm severity. We present a present-era climatology of North Atlantic cyclones that had potential to produce sting jets. Considering only explosively-developing cyclones, those with sting-jet potential are more likely to have higher relative vorticity and associated low-level wind maxima. Furthermore, the strongest winds for sting-jet cyclones are more often in the cool sector, behind the cold front, when compared with other explosively-developing cyclones which commonly have strong warm-sector winds too. The tracks of sting-jet cyclones, and explosively-developing cyclones in general, show little offset from the climatological storm track. While rare over Europe, sting-jet cyclones are relatively frequent within the main storm track with up to one third of extratropical cyclones exhibiting sting-jet potential. Thus, the rarity and, until recently, lack of description of sting-jet windstorms is more due to the climatological storm track location away from highly-populated land masses, than due to an actual rarity of such storms in nature.

Model finds bigger, stronger tropical cyclones with warming seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2014-03-01

In the wake of powerful tropical cyclones such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina and Typhoon Haiyan, questions about the likely effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity are on the public's mind. The interactions between global warming and cyclone activity, however, are complex, with rising sea surface temperatures, changing energy distributions, and altered atmospheric dynamics all having some effect.

A Climatological Study of Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

extratropical cyclone by months in the Pacific basin. Most of the storms occur from October through March...hurricane force extratropical cyclone. Starting from left to right; the first column is the storm name, second column is the year, month, day, hour (UTC...2000 through 2007 illustrates that the number of hurricane-force extratropical cyclones is quite significant: approximately 500 storms , nearly evenly

A Composite Diagnosis of Synoptic-Scale Extratropical Cyclone Development over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rolfson, Donald M.; Smith, Phillip J.

1996-01-01

This paper presents a composite diagnosis of synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms associated with extratropical cyclone evolution. Drawn from 12 cyclone cases that occurred over the continental United States during the cool season months, the diagnosis provides a 'climatology' of development mechanisms for difference categories of cyclone evolution ranging from cyclone weakening through three stages of cyclone intensification. Computational results were obtained using an 'extended' form of the Zwack-Okossi equation applied to routine upper-air and surface data analyzed on a 230 km x 230 km grid. Results show that cyclonic vorticity advection, which maximizes in the upper troposphere, was the primary contributor to cyclone development regardless of the stage of development. A second consistent contributor to development was latent heat release. Horizontal temperature advection, often acknowledged as a development mechanism, was found to contribute to development only during more intense stages. During weakening and weaker development stages, temperature advection opposed development, as the warm-air advection invariably found at upper levels was dominated by cold air advection in the lower half of the troposphere. In the more intense stages, development was moderated by dry-adiabatic cooling associated with the ascending vertical motions.

Scale-dependent cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry in a forced rotating turbulence experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallet, B.; Campagne, A.; Cortet, P.-P.; Moisy, F.

2014-03-01

We characterize the statistical and geometrical properties of the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry in a statistically steady forced rotating turbulence experiment. Turbulence is generated by a set of vertical flaps which continuously inject velocity fluctuations towards the center of a tank mounted on a rotating platform. We first characterize the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry from conventional single-point vorticity statistics. We propose a phenomenological model to explain the emergence of the asymmetry in the experiment, from which we predict scaling laws for the root-mean-square velocity in good agreement with the experimental data. We further quantify the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry using a set of third-order two-point velocity correlations. We focus on the correlations which are nonzero only if the cyclone-anticyclone symmetry is broken. They offer two advantages over single-point vorticity statistics: first, they are defined from velocity measurements only, so an accurate resolution of the Kolmogorov scale is not required; second, they provide information on the scale-dependence of the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry. We compute these correlation functions analytically for a random distribution of independent identical vortices. These model correlations describe well the experimental ones, indicating that the cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry is dominated by the large-scale long-lived cyclones.

The influence of local sea surface temperatures on Australian east coast cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepler, Acacia S.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Evans, Jason P.; Sherwood, Steven C.

2016-11-01

Cyclones are a major cause of rainfall and extreme weather in the midlatitudes and have a preference for genesis and explosive development in areas where a warm western boundary current borders a continental landmass. While there is a growing body of work on how extratropical cyclones are influenced by the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Current in the Northern Hemisphere, there is little understanding of similar regions in the Southern Hemisphere including the Australian east coast, where cyclones that develop close to the coast are the main cause of severe weather and coastal flooding. This paper quantifies the impact of east Australian sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on local cyclone activity and behavior, using three different sets of sea surface temperature boundary conditions during the period 2007-2008 in an ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting Model physics parameterizations. Coastal sea surface temperatures are demonstrated to have a significant impact on the overall frequency of cyclones in this region, with warmer SSTs acting as a trigger for the intensification of weak or moderate cyclones, particularly those of a subtropical nature. However, sea surface temperatures play only a minor role in the most intense cyclones, which are dominated by atmospheric conditions.

Buoyancy and shear characteristics of hurricane-tornado environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccaul, Eugene W., Jr.

1991-01-01

This study presents detailed composite profiles of temperature, moisture, and wind constructed for tornado environments in tropical cyclones that affected the U.S. between 1948 and 1986. Winds are composited in components radial and tangential to the tropical cyclone center at observation time. Guided by observed patterns of tornado occurrence, composites are constructed for a variety of different stratifications of the data, including proximity to tornadoes, position relative to the cyclone center, time of day, time after cyclone landfall, cyclone translation speed, and landfall location. The composites are also compared to composite soundings from Great Plains tornado environments. A variety of sounding parameters are examined to see which are most closely related to the tornado distribution patterns. Lower-tropospheric vertical shears are found to be stronger in the tropical cyclone tornado environments than on the Great Plains. Buoyancy for the tropical cyclone tornado cases is much smaller than that seen with Great Plains tornado events and exhibits a weak negative correlation with tornado outbreak severity.

Observational study of upper ocean cooling due to Phet super cyclone in the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muni Krishna, K.

2016-05-01

Phet super cyclone (31 May-7 June 2010) was the most intense and also the rarest of the rare track in Arabian Sea as per the recorded history during 1877-2009. The present study focuses on the ocean physical responses to Phet cyclone using satellite and Argo observations. The sea surface temperature is decreased to 6 °C with an approximately 350 km long and 100 km width area in the Arabian Sea after the cyclone passage. The translation speed of cyclone is 3.86 m/s, the mixed layer is 79 m, and thermocline displacement is 13 m at the cooling area. With the relationship of wind stress curl and Ekman pumping velocity (EPV), the author found that the speed of EPV was increased after the passage of cyclone. So the extent of the SST drop was probably due to the moving speed of cyclone and the depth of the mixed layer.

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baldini, Lisa M.; Baldini, James U. L.; McElwaine, Jim N.

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the Northmore » American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. In conclusion, our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.« less

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldini, Lisa M.; Baldini, James U. L.; McElwaine, Jim N.; Frappier, Amy Benoit; Asmerom, Yemane; Liu, Kam-Biu; Prufer, Keith M.; Ridley, Harriet E.; Polyak, Victor; Kennett, Douglas J.; MacPherson, Colin G.; Aquino, Valorie V.; Awe, Jaime; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

2016-11-01

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

DOE PAGES

Baldini, Lisa M.; Baldini, James U. L.; McElwaine, Jim N.; ...

2016-11-23

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the Northmore » American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. In conclusion, our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.« less

Developing an enhanced tropical cyclone data portal for the Southern Hemisphere and the Western Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy; de Wit, Roald; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Waqaicelua, Alipate; Kunitsugu, Masashi; Caroff, Philippe; Chane-Ming, Fabrice

2013-04-01

Tropical cyclones are the most extreme weather phenomena which severely impact coastal communities and island nations. There is an ongoing research (i) on accurate analysis of observed trends in tropical cyclone occurrences, and (ii) how tropical cyclone frequency and intensity may change in the future as a result of climate change. Reliable historical records of cyclone activity are vital for this research. The Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program is dedicated to help Pacific Island countries and Timor Leste gain a better understanding of how climate change will impact their regions. One of the key PACCSAP projects is focused on developing a tropical cyclone archive, climatology and seasonal prediction for the regions. As part of the project, historical tropical cyclone best track data have been examined and prepared to be subsequently displayed through the enhanced tropical cyclone data portal for the Southern Hemisphere and the Western Pacific Ocean. Data from the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Nadi, Fiji and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) in Brisbane, Darwin and Wellington for 1969-1970 to 2010-2011 tropical cyclone seasons have been carefully examined. Errors and inconsistencies which have been found during the quality control procedure have been corrected. To produce a consolidated data set for the South Pacific Ocean, best track data from these four centres have been used. Specifically, for 1969-1970 to 1994-1995 tropical cyclone seasons, data from TCWCs in Brisbane, Darwin and Wellington have been used. In 1995, RSMC Nadi, Fiji has been established with responsibilities for issuing tropical cyclone warnings and preparing best track data for the area south of the equator to 25°S, 160°E to 120°W. Consequently, data from RSMC Nadi have been used as a primary source for this area, starting from the 1995-1996 tropical cyclone season. These data have been combined with the data from TCWC Wellington for the area 25°S to 40°S, 160°E to 120°W and with the data from TCWCs in Brisbane and Darwin for the area south of the equator to 37°S, 135°E to 160°E. In addition, tropical cyclone best track data for the North-West Pacific for 1977-2011 seasons prepared at RSMC Tokyo and for the South Indian Ocean for 1969-2011 prepared at RSMC la Réunion have been added to the dataset. As a result, new design of the Southern Hemisphere/Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/) incorporates best track data for the Western Pacific both south and north of the equator and for the South Indian Ocean. The portal has been developed using the OpenLayers web mapping library. Main features of the portal include dynamic map navigation, presenting detailed cyclone information for a selected region in the Southern Hemisphere and North-West Pacific and displaying changes in tropical cyclone intensity over the lifetime of a cyclone. One of the unique features of the portal is its enhanced functionality for spatial and temporal selection for cyclones in selected areas (e.g. economic exclusion zones of the countries). Acknowledgement The research discussed in this paper was conducted through the PACCSAP supported by the AusAID and the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. We acknowledge C. Shamsu, D. Duong, P. Lopatecki, W. Banerjee, P. He, P. Wickramasinghe and A. Bauers from the School of Computer Sciences and IT at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, Australia for their contribution to the development of the portal's functionality on spatial selection.

Impact of Moist Physics Complexity on Tropical Cyclone Simulations from the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalina, E. A.; Biswas, M.; Newman, K.; Grell, E. D.; Bernardet, L.; Frimel, J.; Carson, L.

2017-12-01

The parameterization of moist physics in numerical weather prediction models plays an important role in modulating tropical cyclone structure, intensity, and evolution. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's operational model for tropical cyclone prediction, uses the Scale-Aware Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SASAS) cumulus scheme and a modified version of the Ferrier-Aligo (FA) microphysics scheme to parameterize moist physics. The FA scheme contains a number of simplifications that allow it to run efficiently in an operational setting, which includes prescribing values for hydrometeor number concentrations (i.e., single-moment microphysics) and advecting the total condensate rather than the individual hydrometeor species. To investigate the impact of these simplifying assumptions on the HWRF forecast, the FA scheme was replaced with the more complex double-moment Thompson microphysics scheme, which individually advects cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, and graupel. Retrospective HWRF forecasts of tropical cyclones that occurred in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific ocean basins from 2015-2017 were then simulated and compared to those produced by the operational HWRF configuration. Both traditional model verification metrics (i.e., tropical cyclone track and intensity) and process-oriented metrics (e.g., storm size, precipitation structure, and heating rates from the microphysics scheme) will be presented and compared. The sensitivity of these results to the cumulus scheme used (i.e., the operational SASAS versus the Grell-Freitas scheme) also will be examined. Finally, the merits of replacing the moist physics schemes that are used operationally with the alternatives tested here will be discussed from a standpoint of forecast accuracy versus computational resources.

Lessons Learned from the Deployment and Integration of a Microwave Sounder Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Surface Wind Estimation Algorithm into NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Product Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longmore, S. P.; Knaff, J. A.; Schumacher, A.; Dostalek, J.; DeMaria, R.; Chirokova, G.; Demaria, M.; Powell, D. C.; Sigmund, A.; Yu, W.

2014-12-01

The Colorado State University (CSU) Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) has recently deployed a tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and surface wind radii estimation algorithm that utilizes Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) from the NOAA18, NOAA19 and METOPA polar orbiting satellites for testing, integration and operations for the Product System Development and Implementation (PSDI) projects at NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). This presentation discusses the evolution of the CIRA NPP/AMSU TC algorithms internally at CIRA and its migration and integration into the NOAA Data Exploitation (NDE) development and testing frameworks. The discussion will focus on 1) the development cycle of internal NPP/AMSU TC algorithms components by scientists and software engineers, 2) the exchange of these components into the NPP/AMSU TC software systems using the subversion version control system and other exchange methods, 3) testing, debugging and integration of the NPP/AMSU TC systems both at CIRA/NESDIS and 4) the update cycle of new releases through continuous integration. Lastly, a discussion of the methods that were effective and those that need revision will be detailed for the next iteration of the NPP/AMSU TC system.

The role of South Pacific atmospheric variability in the development of different types of ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Yujia; Furtado, Jason C.

2017-07-01

Recent advances in tropical Pacific climate variability have focused on understanding the development of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, specifically the types or "flavors" of ENSO (i.e., central versus eastern Pacific events). While precursors to ENSO events exist, distinguishing the particular flavor of the expected ENSO event remains unresolved. This study offers a new look at ENSO predictability using South Pacific atmospheric variability during austral winter as an indicator. The positive phase of the leading mode of South Pacific sea level pressure variability, which we term the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO), exhibits a meridional dipole with with a(n) (anti)cyclonic anomaly dominating the subtropics (extratropics/high latitudes). Once energized, the cyclonic anomalies in the subtropical node of the SPO weaken the southeasterly trade winds and promote the charging of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, giving rise to eastern Pacific ENSO events. Indeed, the type of ENSO event can be determined accurately using only the magnitude and phase of the SPO during austral winter as a predictor (17 out of 23 cases). The SPO may also play a role in explaining the asymmetry of warm and cold events. Collectively, our findings present a new perspective on ENSO-South Pacific interactions that can advance overall understanding of the ENSO system and enhance its predictability across multiple timescales.

How ocean color can steer Pacific tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, Anand; Emanuel, Kerry; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Anderson, Whit G.; Hallberg, Robert

2010-09-01

Because ocean color alters the absorption of sunlight, it can produce changes in sea surface temperatures with further impacts on atmospheric circulation. These changes can project onto fields previously recognized to alter the distribution of tropical cyclones. If the North Pacific subtropical gyre contained no absorbing and scattering materials, the result would be to reduce subtropical cyclone activity in the subtropical Northwest Pacific by 2/3, while concentrating cyclone tracks along the equator. Predicting tropical cyclone activity using coupled models may thus require consideration of the details of how heat moves into the upper thermocline as well as biogeochemical cycling.

Hydraulic optimization and modeling of hydro-cyclone-systems for treatment and purification of any kind of waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangemacher, Lars; Fröhlich, Siegmund; Buse, Hauke

2017-11-01

Water is an indispensable resource for many purposes and good drinking water quality is essential for mankind. This article is supposed to show the need for mobile water treatment systems and therefore to give an overview of different mobile drinking water systems and the technologies available for obtaining good water quality. The aim is to develop a simple to operate water treatment system with few processing stages such as multi-cyclone-cartridge and reverse osmosis with energy recuperation, while the focus is set on modeling and optimizing of hydrocyclone systems as the first treatment stage.

Experiences with industrial solar process steam generation in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krüger, Dirk; Berger, Michael; Mokhtar, Marwan; Willwerth, Lisa; Zahler, Christian; Al-Najami, Mahmoud; Hennecke, Klaus

2017-06-01

At the Jordanian pharmaceuticals manufacturing company RAM Pharma a solar process heat supply has been constructed by Industrial Solar GmbH in March 2015 and operated since then (Figure 1). The collector field consists of 394 m² of linear Fresnel collectors supplying saturated steam to the steam network at RAM Pharma at about 6 bar gauge. In the frame of the SolSteam project funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) the installation has been modified introducing an alternative way to separate water and steam by a cyclone. This paper describes the results of experiments with the cyclone and compares the operation with a steam drum. The steam production of the solar plant as well as the fuel demand of the steam boiler are continuously monitored and results are presented in this paper.

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Liguang; Wang, Bin; Braun, Scott A.

2006-01-01

The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very different from our current assessments, which were mainly based on the thermodynamic theory of tropical cyclone intensity.

DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT OF GAS-LIQUID CYLINDRICAL CYCLONE COMPACT SEPARATORS FOR THREE-PHASE FLOW

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dr. Ram S. Mohan; Dr. Ovadia Shoham

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded a five-year (1997-2002) grant (Mohan and Shoham, DE-FG26-97BC15024, 1997) to The University of Tulsa, to develop compact multiphase separation components for 3-phase flow. The research activities of this project have been conducted through cost sharing by the member companies of the Tulsa University Separation Technology Projects (TUSTP) research consortium and the Oklahoma Center for the Advancement of Science and Technology (OCAST). As part of this project, several individual compact separation components have been developed for onshore and offshore applications. These include gas-liquid cylindrical cyclones (GLCC{copyright}), liquid-liquid cylindrical cyclones (LLCC{copyright}), and the gas-liquid-liquidmore » cylindrical cyclones (GLLCC{copyright}). A detailed study has also been completed for the liquid-liquid hydrocyclones (LLHC). Appropriate control strategies have been developed for proper operation of the GLCC{copyright} and LLCC{copyright}. Testing of GLCC{copyright} at high pressure and real crude conditions for field applications is also completed. Limited studies have been conducted on flow conditioning devices to be used upstream of the compact separators for performance improvement. This report presents a brief overview of the activities and tasks accomplished during the 5-year project period, October 1, 1997-March 31, 2003 (including the no-cost extended period of 6 months). An executive summary is presented initially followed by the tasks of the 5-year budget periods. Then, detailed description of the experimental and modeling investigations are presented. Subsequently, the technical and scientific results of the activities of this project period are presented with some discussions. The findings of this investigation are summarized in the ''Conclusions'' section, followed by relevant references. The publications resulting from this study in the form of MS Theses, Ph.D. Dissertation, Journal Papers and Conference Presentations are provided at the end of this report.« less

Impacts of different grades of tropical cyclones on infectious diarrhea in Guangdong, 2005-2011.

PubMed

Kang, Ruihua; Xun, Huanmiao; Zhang, Ying; Wang, Wei; Wang, Xin; Jiang, Baofa; Ma, Wei

2015-01-01

Guangdong province is one of the most vulnerable provinces to tropical cyclones in China. Most prior studies concentrated on the relationship between tropical cyclones and injuries and mortality. This study aimed to explore the impacts of different grades of tropical cyclones on infectious diarrhea incidence in Guangdong province, from 2005 to 2011. Mann-Whitney U test was firstly used to examine if infectious diarrhea were sensitive to tropical cyclone. Then unidirectional 1:1 case-crossover design was performed to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between daily number of infectious diarrhea and tropical cyclone from 2005 to 2011 in Guangdong, China. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to eliminate multicollinearity. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CI). There were no significant relationships between tropical cyclone and bacillary dysentery, amebic dysentery, typhoid, and paratyphoid cases. Infectious diarrhea other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid significantly increased after tropical cyclones. The strongest effect were shown on lag 1 day (HRs = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.22, 3.12) and no lagged effect was detected for tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm and typhoon, with the largest HRs (95%CI) of 2.16 (95%CI = 1.69, 2.76), 2.43 (95%CI = 1.65, 3.58) and 2.21 (95%CI = 1.65, 2.69), respectively. Among children below 5 years old, the impacts of all grades of tropical cyclones were strongest at lag 0 day. And HRs were 2.67 (95%CI = 1.10, 6.48), 2.49 (95%CI = 1.80, 3.44), 4.89 (95%CI = 2.37, 7.37) and 3.18 (95%CI = 2.10, 4.81), respectively. All grades of tropical cyclones could increase risk of other infectious diarrhea. Severe tropical storm has the strongest influence on other infectious diarrhea. The impacts of tropical cyclones on children under 5 years old were higher than total population.

Contrasting the projected change in extreme extratropical cyclones in the two hemispheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, E. K. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones form an important part of the global circulation. They are responsible for much of the high impact weather in the mid-latitudes, including heavy precipitation, strong winds, and coastal storm surges. They are also the surface manifestation of baroclinic waves that are responsible for much of the transport of momentum, heat, and moisture across the mid-latitudes. Thus how these storms will change in the future is of much general interest. In particular, how the frequency of the extreme cyclones change are of most concern, since they are the ones that cause most damages. While the projection of a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere storm track and cyclone activity is widely accepted, together with a small decrease in the total number of extratropical cyclones, as discussed in the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), projected change in cyclone intensity is still rather uncertain. Several studies have suggested that cyclone intensity, in terms of absolute value of sea level pressure (SLP) minima or SLP perturbations, is projected to increase under global warming. However, other studies found no increase in wind speed around extratropical cyclones. In this study, CMIP5 multi-model projection of how the frequency of extreme cyclones in terms of near surface wind intensity may change under global warming has been examined. Results suggest significant increase in the occurrences of extreme cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, CMIP5 models project a northeastward shift in extreme cyclone activity over the Pacific, and significant decrease over the Atlantic. Substantial differences are also found between projected changes in near surface wind intensity and wind intensity at 850 hPa, suggesting that wind change at 850 hPa is not a good proxy for change in surface wind intensity. Finally, projected changes in the large scale environment are examined to understand the dynamics behind these contrasting projected changes.

Impacts of Different Grades of Tropical Cyclones on Infectious Diarrhea in Guangdong, 2005-2011

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ying; Wang, Wei; Wang, Xin; Jiang, Baofa; Ma, Wei

2015-01-01

Objective Guangdong province is one of the most vulnerable provinces to tropical cyclones in China. Most prior studies concentrated on the relationship between tropical cyclones and injuries and mortality. This study aimed to explore the impacts of different grades of tropical cyclones on infectious diarrhea incidence in Guangdong province, from 2005 to 2011. Methods Mann-Whitney U test was firstly used to examine if infectious diarrhea were sensitive to tropical cyclone. Then unidirectional 1:1 case-crossover design was performed to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between daily number of infectious diarrhea and tropical cyclone from 2005 to 2011 in Guangdong, China. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to eliminate multicollinearity. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results There were no significant relationships between tropical cyclone and bacillary dysentery, amebic dysentery, typhoid, and paratyphoid cases. Infectious diarrhea other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid significantly increased after tropical cyclones. The strongest effect were shown on lag 1 day (HRs = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.22, 3.12) and no lagged effect was detected for tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm and typhoon, with the largest HRs (95%CI) of 2.16 (95%CI = 1.69, 2.76), 2.43 (95%CI = 1.65, 3.58) and 2.21 (95%CI = 1.65, 2.69), respectively. Among children below 5 years old, the impacts of all grades of tropical cyclones were strongest at lag 0 day. And HRs were 2.67 (95%CI = 1.10, 6.48), 2.49 (95%CI = 1.80, 3.44), 4.89 (95%CI = 2.37, 7.37) and 3.18 (95%CI = 2.10, 4.81), respectively. Conclusion All grades of tropical cyclones could increase risk of other infectious diarrhea. Severe tropical storm has the strongest influence on other infectious diarrhea. The impacts of tropical cyclones on children under 5 years old were higher than total population. PMID:26106882

A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed.

PubMed

Kossin, James P

2018-06-01

As the Earth's atmosphere warms, the atmospheric circulation changes. These changes vary by region and time of year, but there is evidence that anthropogenic warming causes a general weakening of summertime tropical circulation 1-8 . Because tropical cyclones are carried along within their ambient environmental wind, there is a plausible a priori expectation that the translation speed of tropical cyclones has slowed with warming. In addition to circulation changes, anthropogenic warming causes increases in atmospheric water-vapour capacity, which are generally expected to increase precipitation rates 9 . Rain rates near the centres of tropical cyclones are also expected to increase with increasing global temperatures 10-12 . The amount of tropical-cyclone-related rainfall that any given local area will experience is proportional to the rain rates and inversely proportional to the translation speeds of tropical cyclones. Here I show that tropical-cyclone translation speed has decreased globally by 10 per cent over the period 1949-2016, which is very likely to have compounded, and possibly dominated, any increases in local rainfall totals that may have occurred as a result of increased tropical-cyclone rain rates. The magnitude of the slowdown varies substantially by region and by latitude, but is generally consistent with expected changes in atmospheric circulation forced by anthropogenic emissions. Of particular importance is the slowdown of 30 per cent and 20 per cent over land areas affected by western North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclones, respectively, and the slowdown of 19 per cent over land areas in the Australian region. The unprecedented rainfall totals associated with the 'stall' of Hurricane Harvey 13-15 over Texas in 2017 provide a notable example of the relationship between regional rainfall amounts and tropical-cyclone translation speed. Any systematic past or future change in the translation speed of tropical cyclones, particularly over land, is therefore highly relevant when considering potential changes in local rainfall totals.

Hydroclimatology of Extreme Precipitation and Floods Originating from the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Jennifer

This study explores seasonal patterns and structures of moisture transport pathways from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico that lead to extreme large-scale precipitation and floods over land. Storm tracks, such as the tropical cyclone tracks in the Northern Atlantic Ocean, are an example of moisture transport pathways. In the first part, North Atlantic cyclone tracks are clustered by the moments to identify common traits in genesis locations, track shapes, intensities, life spans, landfalls, seasonal patterns, and trends. The clustering results of part one show the dynamical behavior differences of tropical cyclones born in different parts of the basin. Drawing on these conclusions, in the second part, statistical track segment model is developed for simulation of tracks to improve reliability of tropical cyclone risk probabilities. Moisture transport pathways from the North Atlantic Ocean are also explored though the specific regional flood dynamics of the U.S. Midwest and the United Kingdom in part three of the dissertation. Part I. Classifying North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Tracks by Mass Moments. A new method for classifying tropical cyclones or similar features is introduced. The cyclone track is considered as an open spatial curve, with the wind speed or power information along the curve considered as a mass attribute. The first and second moments of the resulting object are computed and then used to classify the historical tracks using standard clustering algorithms. Mass moments allow the whole track shape, length and location to be incorporated into the clustering methodology. Tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin are clustered with K-means by mass moments producing an optimum of six clusters with differing genesis locations, track shapes, intensities, life spans, landfalls, seasonality, and trends. Even variables that are not directly clustered show distinct separation between clusters. A trend analysis confirms recent conclusions of increasing tropical cyclones in the basin over the past two decades. However, the trends vary across clusters. Part II: Tropical cyclone Intensity and Track Simulator (HITS) with Atlantic Ocean Applications for Risk Assessment. A nonparametric stochastic model is developed and tested for the simulation of tropical cyclone tracks. Tropical cyclone tracks demonstrate continuity and memory over many time and space steps. Clusters of tracks can be coherent, and the separation between clusters may be marked by geographical locations where groups of tracks diverge due to the physics of the underlying process. Consequently, their evolution may be non-Markovian. Markovian simulation models, as often used, may produce tracks that potentially diverge or lose memory quicker than nature. This is addressed here through a model that simulates tracks by randomly sampling track segments of varying length, selected from historical tracks. For performance evaluation, a spatial grid is imposed on the domain of interest. For each grid box, long-term tropical cyclone risk is assessed through the annual probability distributions of the number of storm hours, landfalls, winds, and other statistics. Total storm length is determined at birth by local distribution, and movement to other tropical cyclone segments by distance to neighbor tracks, comparative vector, and age of track. An assessment of the performance for tropical cyclone track simulation and potential directions for the improvement and use of such model are discussed. Part III: Dynamical Structure of Extreme Floods in the U.S. Midwest and the United Kingdom. Twenty extreme spring floods that occurred in the Ohio Basin between 1901 and 2008, identified from daily river discharge data, are investigated and compared to the April 2011 Ohio River flood event. Composites of synoptic fields for the flood events show that all these floods are associated with a similar pattern of sustained advection of low-level moisture and warm air from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. The typical flow conditions are governed by an anomalous semi-stationary ridge situated east of the US East Coast, which steers the moisture and converges it into the Ohio Valley. Significantly, the moisture path common to all the 20 cases studied here as well as the case of April 2011 is distinctly different from the normal path of Atlantic moisture during spring, which occurs further west. It is shown further that the Ohio basin moisture convergence responsible for the floods is caused primarily by the atmospheric circulation anomaly advecting the climatological mean moisture field. Transport and related convergence due to the covariance between moisture anomalies and circulation anomalies are of secondary but non-negligible importance. The importance of atmospheric circulation anomalies to floods is confirmed by conducting a similar analysis for a series of winter floods on the River Eden in northwest England.

The Role of Wave Cyclones in Transporting Boundary Layer Air to the Free Troposphere During the Spring 2001 NASA / TRACE-P Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, Henry E.; Hannan, J. R.; Crawford, J. H.; Sachse, G. W.; Blake, D. R.

2003-01-01

Transport of boundary layer air to the free troposphere by cyclones during NASA's Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment is investigated. Airstreams responsible for boundary layer venting are diagnosed using results from a high-resolution meteorological model (MM5) together with in situ and remotely sensed chemical data. Hourly wind data from the MM5 are used to calculate three-dimensional grids of backward air trajectories. A reverse domain filling (RDF) technique then is employed to examine the characteristics of airstreams over the computational domain, and to isolate airstreams ascending from the boundary layer to the free troposphere during the previous 36 hours. Two cases are examined in detail. Results show that airstreams responsible for venting the boundary layer differ considerably from those described by classic conceptual models and in the recent literature. In addition, airstreams sampled by the TRACE-P aircraft are found to exhibit large variability in chemical concentrations. This variability is due to differences in the boundary layer histories of individual airstreams with respect to anthropogenic sources over continental Asia and Japan. Complex interactions between successive wave cyclones also are found to be important in determining the chemical composition of the airstreams. Particularly important is the process of post-cold frontal boundary layer air being rapidly transported offshore and recirculated into ascending airstreams of upstream cyclones.

Large‐scale heavy precipitation over central Europe and the role of atmospheric cyclone track types

PubMed Central

Lexer, Annemarie; Homann, Markus; Blöschl, Günter

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Precipitation patterns over Europe are largely controlled by atmospheric cyclones embedded in the general circulation of the mid‐latitudes. This study evaluates the climatologic features of precipitation for selected regions in central Europe with respect to cyclone track types for 1959–2015, focusing on large‐scale heavy precipitation. The analysis suggests that each of the cyclone track types is connected to a specific pattern of the upper level atmospheric flow, usually characterized by a major trough located over Europe. A dominant upper level cut‐off low (COL) is found over Europe for strong continental (CON) and van Bebber's type (Vb) cyclones which move from the east and southeast into central Europe. Strong Vb cyclones revealed the longest residence times, mainly due to circular propagation paths. The central European cyclone precipitation climate can largely be explained by seasonal track‐type frequency and cyclone intensity; however, additional factors are needed to explain a secondary precipitation maximum in early autumn. The occurrence of large precipitation totals for track events is strongly related to the track type and the region, with the highest value of 45% of all Vb cyclones connected to heavy precipitation in summer over the Czech Republic and eastern Austria. In western Germany, Atlantic winter cyclones are most relevant for heavy precipitation. The analysis of the top 50 precipitation events revealed an outstanding heavy precipitation period from 2006 to 2011 in the Czech Republic, but no gradual long‐term change. The findings help better understand spatio‐temporal variability of heavy precipitation in the context of floods and may be used for evaluating climate models.

RegCM4-HadGEM2-ES simulated cyclone climatology (1979-2005) over the Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porfírio da Rocha, Rosmeri; Simões Reboita, Michelle

2015-04-01

Cyclones over the Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) are a subject of great interest once they modify the weather and control the climate near east coast of South America (SA). In this study we compare the cyclones climatology in the period 1979-2005 simulated by Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) with that from ERA-Interim reanalysis (ECMWF). RegCM4 was nested in HadGEM2-ES output and the simulation used the SA domain of CORDEX project, with a horizontal grid of 50 km and 18 sigma-pressure levels in the vertical. The RegCM4 simulation used the land surface Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the mixed convection Emanuel-Grell scheme configurations. This simulation is part of the CREMA (CORDEX REgCM4 hyper-MAtrix) experiment. The cyclones were identified using an automated tracking scheme based on minima (cyclonic in Southern Hemisphere) of relative vorticity from the wind at 925 hPa. The threshold of -1.5 x 10-5s-1 was used in the algorithm. All cyclones in RegCM4 and ERA-Interim with relative vorticity lower than this threshold and with lifetime higher or equal 24 hours were included in the climatology. ERA-Interim shows three main cyclogenetic regions near east coast of SA. In general, RegCM4 simulated these same regions but with an underestimation of the number of cyclones. In each of these regions, there is a different season of higher cyclones frequency. Over extreme south of southern Brazil and Uruguay the higher frequency of cyclones occurs in winter, while southeastern Brazil and southeastern Argentina cyclones are most frequent during summer. RegCM4 is able to simulate this observed seasonality.

Equatorial Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere/Ionosphere (MLTI) Response to Severe Cyclonic Storm `Aila' and `Ward' observed over North Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

G J, B.

2016-12-01

The present work investigates the Equatorial Mesosphere Lower Thermosphere/Ionosphere (MLTI) response to severe cyclonic storm `Aila (23-26 May 2009)' and `Ward (10-16 December 2009)' which were observed over north Indian Ocean during the extended solar minimum of the year 2009. This report reveals the coupling between Tropical Cyclone and MLTI region. Tropical cyclone track and data can be obtained from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi. Mesospheric and Ionospheric variation can be examined with the help of ground based Mesosphere Lower Thermosphere (MLT) radar and Digisonde located at equatorial low latitude station, Tirunelveli (8.7oN, 77.8oE). The Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) data is used as a proxy for identifying the convective activity, which are retrieved from NOAA Climate Data Centre. It is observed that the tropical cyclone induced convection as the driving agent for the increased gravity wave activity in the lower atmosphere. These upward propagating gravity waves deposit their energy and momentum into the upper region of atmosphere as `Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). During the cyclonic storm periods, we found increased gravity wave amplitude with upward propagation in the MLT region. Ionospheric response to severe cyclonic storm is examined with the dynamical parameters, foF2, hmF2, h'F2 and Total Election Content (TEC). Significant increase of foF2 frequency is observed during `Ward' cyclonic storm. Drastic variation in foF2 and h'F2 is observed during Aila cyclonic storm than ward event. More statistical analysis has been done for finding the correlation between cyclonic storm and Ionospheric parameters. Detailed results will be presented in the meeting.

The short-term impacts of a cyclone on seagrass communities in Southwest Madagascar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Côté-Laurin, Marie-Claude; Benbow, Sophie; Erzini, Karim

2017-04-01

Cyclones are large-scale disturbances with highly destructive potential in coastal ecosystems. On February 22, 2013, a powerful tropical cyclone made landfall on the southwest coast of Madagascar, a region which is infrequently hit by such extreme weather events coming from the Mozambique Channel. Seagrass ecosystems, which provide valuable ecosystems services to local communities, are especially vulnerable because they thrive in shallow waters. The impact of Cyclone Haruna on seagrass diversity, height and coverage and associated fish diversity, abundance and biomass was assessed in 3 sites near Andavadoaka (22°07‧S, 43°23‧E) before and after the event using fish underwater visual census, video-transects, and seagrass quadrats. The cyclone caused a significant loss in seagrass cover at all 3 sites. Thalassia hemprichii and Syringodium isoetifolium were the most affected species. Andavadoaka beach, the most exposed site, which was also subject to human use and was most fragmented, suffered the largest negative effects of the cyclone. Cyclone Haruna was not found to significantly affect fish assemblages, which are highly mobile organisms able to use a diversity of niches and adjacent habitats after seagrass fragmentation. Extensive sampling and longer time-scale studies would be needed to fully evaluate the cyclone impact on communities of seagrass and fish, and track potential recovery in seagrass coverage. The intensity and destructive potential of cyclones is expected to increase with global warming, which is of concern for developing countries that encompass most of the world's seagrass beds. This study provided a unique and key opportunity to monitor immediate impacts of an extreme disturbance in a region where cyclones rarely hit coastal ecosystems and where local populations remain highly dependent on seagrass meadows.

Development of advanced fluid-bed agglomeration and cyclonic incineration for simultaneous waste disposal and energy recovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rehmat, A.; Khinkis, M.

The Institute of Gas Technology (IGT) is currently developing a two-stage fluidized-bed/cyclonic agglomerating incineration system for waste disposal that is based on combining the fluidized-bed agglomeration/incineration and cyclonic combustion techologies. Both technologies have been developed individually at IGT over many years. This combination has resulted in a unique and extremely flexible incinerator for solid, liquid, and gaseous wastes including municipal sludges. The system can operate over a wide range of conditions in the first stage, from low temperature (desorption) to high temperature (agglomeration), including gasification of wastes. In the combined system, solid, liquid, and gaseous organic wastes are incinerated withmore » ease and great efficiency (>99.99% destruction and removal efficiency (DRE)), while solid inorganic contaminants contained within a glassy matrix are rendered benign and suitable for disposal in an ordinary landfill. The heat generated within the incinerator can be recovered using the state-of-the-art boilers. The development of the two-stage incinerator is a culmination of extensive research and development efforts on each stage of the incinerator. The variety of data obtained with solid, liquid, and gaseous wastes for both stages includes agglomeration of ash, incineration and reclamation of used blast grit and foundry sand, partial combustion of carbonaceous fuels, in-situ desulfurization, combustion of low-Btu gases, incineration of industrial wastewater, and incineration of carbon tetrachloride. 5 refs., 7 figs., 12 tabs.« less

Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Preliminary Results with Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis (2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, B.; Tao, W.; Atlas, R.

2008-12-01

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis, the deadliest named tropical cyclone (TC) in the North Indian Ocean Basin, devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, causing tremendous damage and numerous fatalities. An increased lead time in the prediction of TC Nargis would have increased the warning time and may therefore have saved lives and reduced economic damage. Recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputers have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, presumably by improving multi-scale simulations. The key but challenging questions to be answered include: (1) if and how realistic, in terms of timing, location and TC general structure, the global mesoscale model (GMM) can simulate TC genesis and (2) under what conditions can the model extend the lead time of TC genesis forecasts. In this study, we focus on genesis prediction for TCs in the Indian Ocean with the GMM. Preliminary real-data simulations show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted at a lead time of up to 5 days. These simulations also suggest that the accurate representations of a westerly wind burst (WWB) and an equatorial trough, associated with monsoon circulations and/or a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are important for predicting the formation of this kind of TC. In addition to the WWB and equatorial trough, other favorable environmental conditions will be examined, which include enhanced monsoonal circulation, upper-level outflow, low- and middle-level moistening, and surface fluxes.

Robustness of serial clustering of extra-tropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Joaquim G.; Ulbrich, Sven; Karremann, Melanie K.; Stephenson, David B.; Economou, Theodoros; Shaffrey, Len C.

2016-04-01

Cyclone families are a frequent synoptic weather feature in the Euro-Atlantic area in winter. Given appropriate large-scale conditions, the occurrence of such series (clusters) of storms may lead to large socio-economic impacts and cumulative losses. Recent studies analyzing Reanalysis data using single cyclone tracking methods have shown that serial clustering of cyclones occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This study explores the sensitivity of serial clustering to the choice of tracking method. With this aim, the IMILAST cyclone track database based on ERA-interim data is analysed. Clustering is estimated by the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of winter (DJF) cyclones passages near each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. Results indicate that while the general pattern of clustering is identified for all methods, there are considerable differences in detail. This can primarily be attributed to the differences in the variance of cyclone counts between the methods, which range up to one order of magnitude. Nevertheless, clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe can be identified for all methods and can thus be generally considered as a robust feature. The statistical links between large-scale patterns like the NAO and clustering are obtained for all methods, though with different magnitudes. We conclude that the occurrence of cyclone clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe is largely independent from the choice of tracking method and hence from the definition of a cyclone.

Classic Maya civilization collapse associated with reduction in tropical cyclone activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina, M. A.; Polanco-Martinez, J. M.; Lases-Hernández, F.; Bradley, R. S.; Burns, S. J.

2013-12-01

In light of the increased destructiveness of tropical cyclones observed over recent decades one might assume that an increase and not a decrease in tropical cyclone activity would lead to societal stress and perhaps collapse of ancient cultures. In this study we present evidence that a reduction in the frequency and intensity of tropical Atlantic cyclones could have contributed to the collapse of the Maya civilization during the Terminal Classic Period (TCP, AD. 800-950). Statistical comparisons of a quantitative precipitation record from the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) Maya lowlands, based on the stalagmite known as Chaac (after the Mayan God of rain and agriculture), relative to environmental proxy records of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and tropical Atlantic cyclone counts, suggest that these records share significant coherent variability during the TCP and that summer rainfall reductions between 30 and 50% in the Maya lowlands occurred in association with decreased Atlantic tropical cyclones. Analysis of modern instrumental hydrological data suggests cyclone rainfall contributions to the YP equivalent to the range of rainfall deficits associated with decreased tropical cyclone activity during the collapse of the Maya civilization. Cyclone driven precipitation variability during the TCP, implies that climate change may have triggered Maya civilization collapse via freshwater scarcity for domestic use without significant detriment to agriculture. Pyramid in Tikal, the most prominent Maya Kingdom that collapsed during the Terminal Classic Period (circa C.E. 800-950) Rainfall feeding stalagmites inside Rio Secreto cave system, Yucatan, Mexico.

An efficient HW and SW design of H.264 video compression, storage and playback on FPGA devices for handheld thermal imaging systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunay, Omer; Ozsarac, Ismail; Kamisli, Fatih

2017-05-01

Video recording is an essential property of new generation military imaging systems. Playback of the stored video on the same device is also desirable as it provides several operational benefits to end users. Two very important constraints for many military imaging systems, especially for hand-held devices and thermal weapon sights, are power consumption and size. To meet these constraints, it is essential to perform most of the processing applied to the video signal, such as preprocessing, compression, storing, decoding, playback and other system functions on a single programmable chip, such as FPGA, DSP, GPU or ASIC. In this work, H.264/AVC (Advanced Video Coding) compatible video compression, storage, decoding and playback blocks are efficiently designed and implemented on FPGA platforms using FPGA fabric and Altera NIOS II soft processor. Many subblocks that are used in video encoding are also used during video decoding in order to save FPGA resources and power. Computationally complex blocks are designed using FPGA fabric, while blocks such as SD card write/read, H.264 syntax decoding and CAVLC decoding are done using NIOS processor to benefit from software flexibility. In addition, to keep power consumption low, the system was designed to require limited external memory access. The design was tested using 640x480 25 fps thermal camera on CYCLONE V FPGA, which is the ALTERA's lowest power FPGA family, and consumes lower than 40% of CYCLONE V 5CEFA7 FPGA resources on average.

Promoting the confluence of tropical cyclone research.

PubMed

Marler, Thomas E

2015-01-01

Contributions of biologists to tropical cyclone research may improve by integrating concepts from other disciplines. Employing accumulated cyclone energy into protocols may foster greater integration of ecology and meteorology research. Considering experienced ecosystems as antifragile instead of just resilient may improve cross-referencing among ecological and social scientists. Quantifying ecosystem capital as distinct from ecosystem services may improve integration of tropical cyclone ecology research into the expansive global climate change research community.

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Formation and Structure Change in TCS-08

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

cyclones often transition to a fast-moving and rapidly- developing extratropical cyclone that may contain gale-, storm -, or hurricane-force winds...there is a need to improve understanding and prediction of the extratropical transition phase of a decaying tropical cyclone. The structural evolution...of the transition from a tropical to an extratropical circulation involves rapid changes to the wind, cloud, and precipitation patterns that

Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts

PubMed Central

Mumby, Peter J.; Vitolo, Renato; Stephenson, David B.

2011-01-01

Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm events occur randomly with constant rate in time. This study analyzes the statistical properties of Atlantic tropical cyclones and shows that local cyclone counts vary in time, with periods of elevated activity followed by relative quiescence. Such temporal clustering is particularly strong in the Caribbean Sea, along the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, the southwest of Haiti, and in the main hurricane development region in the North Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. Failing to recognize this natural nonstationarity in cyclone rates can give inaccurate impact predictions. We demonstrate this by exploring cyclone impacts on coral reefs. For a given cyclone rate, we find that clustered events have a less detrimental impact than independent random events. Predictions using a standard random hurricane model were overly pessimistic, predicting reef degradation more than a decade earlier than that expected under clustered disturbance. The presence of clustering allows coral reefs more time to recover to healthier states, but the impacts of clustering will vary from one ecosystem to another. PMID:22006300

Hurricanes and Climate: the U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walsh, Kevin; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Daloz, Anne Sophie; Elsner, James; Emanuel, Kerry; Horn, Michael; Lim, Young-Kwon; Roberts, Malcolm; Patricola, Christina;

Characterization of flash floods induced by tropical cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Real-Rangel, R. A.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.

2015-12-01

This study investigates the role of tropical cyclones (hurricanes, tropical storms and depressions) in the generation of flash floods in Mexico. For this, a severity assessment during several cyclonic events for selected catchments was estimated through the evaluation of a flash flood index recently proposed by Kim and Kim (2014). This classification is revised, considering the forcing and areal extent of torrential rainfall generated by the incidence of tropical cyclones on the studied catchments, enabling the further study of the flood regime in catchments located in tropical regions. The analysis incorporates characteristics of the flood hydrographs such as the hydrograph shape (rising curve gradient, magnitude of the peak discharge and flood response time) in order to identify flash-flood prone areas. Results show the Qp-A scaling relationship in catchments that were impacted by tropical cyclones, enabling their comparison against floods generated by other meteorological events (e.g. convective and orographic storms). Results will inform on how peak flows relationships are modified by cyclonic events and highlighting the contribution of cyclonic precipitation to flash-flooding susceptibility.

Cyclonic circulation of Saturn's atmosphere due to tilted convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afanasyev, Y. D.; Zhang, Y.

2018-03-01

Saturn displays cyclonic vortices at its poles and the general atmospheric circulation at other latitudes is dominated by embedded zonal jets that display cyclonic circulation. The abundance of small-scale convective storms suggests that convection plays a role in producing and maintaining Saturn's atmospheric circulation. However, the dynamical influence of small-scale convection on Saturn's general circulation is not well understood. Here we present laboratory analogue experiments and propose that Saturn's cyclonic circulation can be explained by tilted convection in which buoyancy forces do not align with the planet's rotation axis. In our experiments—conducted with a cylindrical water tank that is heated at the bottom, cooled at the top and spun on a rotating table—warm rising plumes and cold sinking water generate small anticyclonic and cyclonic vortices that are qualitatively similar to Saturn's convective storms. Numerical simulations complement the experiments and show that this small-scale convection leads to large-scale cyclonic flow at the surface and anticyclonic circulation at the base of the fluid layer, with a polar vortex forming from the merging of smaller cyclonic storms that are driven polewards.

Monitoring tropical cyclone intensity using wind fields derived from short-interval satellite images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, E. B.; Gentry, R. C.

1981-01-01

Rapid scan visible images from the Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer sensor on board SMS-2 and GOES-1 were used to derive high resolution upper and lower tropospheric environmental wind fields around three western Atlantic tropical cyclones (1975-78). These wind fields were used to derive upper and lower tropospheric areal mean relative vorticity and their differences, the net relative angular momentum balance and upper tropospheric mass outflow. These kinematic parameters were shown by studies using composite rawinsonde data to be strongly related to tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. Also, the role of forced synoptic scale subsidence in tropical cyclone formation was examined. The studies showed that satellite-derived lower and upper tropospheric wind fields can be used to monitor and possibly predict tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. These kinematic analyses showed that future changes in tropical cyclone intensity are mainly related to the "spin-up" of the storms by the net horizontal transport of relative angular momentum caused by convergence of cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and to a lesser extent the divergence of anticyclone vorticity in the upper troposphere.

Upwelling Response to Hurricane Isaac in Geostrophic Oceanic Vortices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaimes, B.; Shay, L. K.; Brewster, J. K.; Schuster, R.

2013-05-01

As a tropical cyclone (TC) moves over the ocean, the cyclonic curl of the wind stress produces a region of upwelling waters under the TC center that is compensated by downwelling waters at regions outside the center. Direct measurements conducted during hurricane Rita and recent numerical studies indicate that this is not necessarily the case when TCs move over geostrophic oceanic features, where its background relative vorticity impacts wind-driven horizontal current divergence and the upwelling velocity. Modulation of the upwelling response in these energetic oceanic regimes impacts vertical mixing across the oceanic mixed layer base, air-sea fluxes into the atmosphere, and ultimately storm intensity. As part of NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment, an experiment was conducted during the passage of TC Isaac over the energetic geostrophic eddy field in the Gulf of Mexico in August 2012. Expendable bathythermographs, current profilers, and conductivity-temperature-depth probes were deployed in Isaac from NOAA WP-3D aircraft during four in-storm flights to measure oceanic variability and its impact on TC-driven upwelling and surface fluxes of heat and momentum. During intensification to hurricane, the cyclonic curl of the wind stress of Isaac extended over a region of more than 300 km in diameter (4 to 5 times the radius of maximum winds). Isaac's center moved over a cold cyclonic feature, while its right and left sides moved over warm anticyclones. Contrasting upwelling and downwelling regimes developed inside the region of cyclonic curl of the wind stress. Both positive (upwelling) and negative (downwelling) vertical displacements of 40 and 60 m, respectively, were measured inside the region of cyclonic curl of the wind stress, which are between 3 to 4 times larger than predicted vertical displacements for a quiescent ocean based on scaling arguments. Oceanic mixed layer (OML) currents of 0.2 to 0.7 m s-1 were measured, which are about 50% smaller than the expected velocity response under quiescent oceanic conditions. Although OML currents were measured inside the core of cyclonic curl of the wind stress, their orientation is not consistent with horizontally divergent flows typically found in upwelling regimes under TC centers. Theoretical predictions that consider background relative vorticity effects on the upwelling response mimic the contrasting upwelling/downwelling regimes inside the region of cyclonic curl of the wind stress. These results point to an important modulation of the OML current and upwelling response by background oceanic flows, where the upwelling velocity is a function of the curl of wind-intensified pre-storm geostrophic currents, rather than just a function of the curl of the wind stress. Thus, properly initializing temperature and salinity fields in numerical models is needed to accurately represent these oceanic processes in coupled forecast models.

Promoting the confluence of tropical cyclone research

PubMed Central

Marler, Thomas E

2015-01-01

Contributions of biologists to tropical cyclone research may improve by integrating concepts from other disciplines. Employing accumulated cyclone energy into protocols may foster greater integration of ecology and meteorology research. Considering experienced ecosystems as antifragile instead of just resilient may improve cross-referencing among ecological and social scientists. Quantifying ecosystem capital as distinct from ecosystem services may improve integration of tropical cyclone ecology research into the expansive global climate change research community. PMID:26480001

Vertical transport of ozone and CO during super cyclones in the Bay of Bengal as detected by Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer.

PubMed

Fadnavis, S; Beig, G; Buchunde, P; Ghude, Sachin D; Krishnamurti, T N

2011-02-01

Vertical profiles of carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone retrieved from Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer have been analyzed during two super cyclone systems Mala and Sidr. Super cyclones Mala and Sidr traversed the Bay of Bengal (BOB) region on April 24-29, 2006 and November 12-16, 2007 respectively. The CO and ozone plume is observed as a strong enhancement of these pollutants in the upper troposphere over the BOB, indicating deep convective transport. Longitude-height cross-section of these pollutants shows vertical transport to the upper troposphere. CO mixing ratio ~90 ppb is observed near the 146-mb level during the cyclone Mala and near 316 mb during the cyclone Sidr. Ozone mixing ratio ~60-100 ppb is observed near the 316-mb level during both the cyclones. Analysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis vertical winds (omega) confirms vertical transport in the BOB.

Tropical cyclone intensity change. A quantitative forecasting scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dropco, K. M.; Gray, W. M.

1981-01-01

One to two day future tropical cyclone intensity change from both a composite and an individual case point-of-view are discussed. Tropical cyclones occurring in the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1957-1977 form the primary data source. Weather charts of the NW Atlantic were initially examined, but few differences were found between intensifying and non-intensifying cyclones. A rawinsonde composite analysis detected composite differences in the 200 mb height fields, the 850 mb temperature fields, the 200 mb zonal wind and the vertical shears of the zonal wind. The individual cyclones which make up the composite study were then separately examined using this composite case knowledge. Similar parameter differences were found in a majority of individual cases. A cyclone intensity change forecast scheme was tested against independent storm cases. Correct predictions of intensification or non-intensification could be made approximately 75% of the time.

A Sky View of Earth From Suomi NPP

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-04-22

This composite image of southern Africa and the surrounding oceans was captured by six orbits of the NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership spacecraft on April 9, 2015, by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument. Tropical Cyclone Joalane can be seen over the Indian Ocean. Winds, tides and density differences constantly stir the oceans while phytoplankton continually grow and die. Orbiting radiometers such as VIIRS allows scientists to track this variability over time and contribute to better understanding of ocean processes that are beneficial to human survival on Earth. The image was created by the Ocean Biology Processing Group at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. For more information, please visit: oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/ and www.nasa.gov/npp Image Credit: Ocean Biology Processing Group at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

State of the art of produced water treatment.

PubMed

Jiménez, S; Micó, M M; Arnaldos, M; Medina, F; Contreras, S

2018-02-01

Produced water (PW) is the wastewater generated when water from underground reservoirs is brought to the surface during oil or gas extraction. PW is generated in large amounts and has a complex composition, containing various toxic organic and inorganic compounds. PW is currently treated in conventional trains that include phase separators, decanters, cyclones and coarse filters in order to comply with existing regulation for discharge. These treatment trains do not achieve more restrictive limitations related to the reuse of the effluent (reinjection into extraction wells) or other beneficial uses (e.g., irrigation). Therefore, and to prevent environmental pollution, further polishing processes need to be carried out. Characterization of the PW to determine major constituents is the first step to select the optimum treatment for PW, coupled with environmental factors, economic considerations, and local regulatory framework. This review tries to provide an overview of different treatments that are being applied to polish this type of effluents. These technologies include membranes, physical, biological, thermal or chemical treatments, where special emphasis has been made on advanced oxidation processes due to the advantages offered by these processes. Commercial treatments, based on the combination, modification and improvement of simpler treatments, were also discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Putting to Rest WISHE-ful Misconceptions for Tropical Cyclone Intensification

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-27

Modeling Earth Systems 10.1002/2014MS000362 MONTOMERY ET AL. VC 2014. The Authors. 7 atmosphere that is nearly neutral to convective instability (very low...non-commercial and no modifica- tions or adaptations are made. MONTOMERY ET AL. VC 2014. The Authors. 1 Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ...the ocean to the atmosphere by the local prevailing winds. In this view, the term ‘‘WISHE mechanism’’ is indistinguishable from ‘‘bulk-aerodynamic

Observational Analysis of Cloud and Precipitation in Midlatitude Cyclones: Northern Versus Southern Hemisphere Warm Fronts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naud, Catherine M.; Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

2012-01-01

Extratropical cyclones are responsible for most of the precipitation and wind damage in the midlatitudes during the cold season, but there are still uncertainties on how they will change in a warming climate. An ubiquitous problem amongst General Circulation Models (GCMs) is a lack of cloudiness over the southern oceans that may be in part caused by a lack of clouds in cyclones. We analyze CloudSat, CALIPSO and AMSR-E observations for 3 austral and boreal cold seasons and composite cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation at the warm fronts for northern and southern hemisphere oceanic cyclones. We find that cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation rate are similar in the early stage of the cyclone life cycle in both northern and southern hemispheres. As cyclones evolve and reach their mature stage, cloudiness and precipitation at the warm front increase in the northern hemisphere but decrease in the southern hemisphere. This is partly caused by lower amounts of precipitable water being available to southern hemisphere cyclones, and smaller increases in wind speed as the cyclones evolve. Southern hemisphere cloud occurrence at the warm front is found to be more sensitive to the amount of moisture in the warm sector than to wind speeds. This suggests that cloudiness in southern hemisphere storms may be more susceptible to changes in atmospheric water vapor content, and thus to changes in surface temperature than their northern hemisphere counterparts. These differences between northern and southern hemisphere cyclones are statistically robust, indicating A-Train-based analyses as useful tools for evaluation of GCMs in the next IPCC report.

Cyclone performance by velocity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cyclones are used almost exclusively in the US cotton ginning industry for emission abatement on pneumatic conveying system exhausts because of their high efficiency, and low capital and operating cost.. Cyclone performance is improved by increasing collection effectiveness or decreasing energy cons...

Conceptual Models of Frontal Cyclones.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eagleman, Joe R.

1981-01-01

This discussion of weather models uses maps to illustrate the differences among three types of frontal cyclones (long wave, short wave, and troughs). Awareness of these cyclones can provide clues to atmospheric conditions which can lead toward accurate weather forecasting. (AM)

Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.; Serreze, Mark C.

2001-01-01

One of the hypothesized effects of global warming from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is a change in the frequency and/or intensity of extratropical cyclones. In this study, winter frequencies and intensities of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1959-97 are examined to determine if identifiable trends are occurring. Results indicate a statistically significant decrease in midlatitude cyclone frequency and a significant increase in high-latitude cyclone frequency. In addition, storm intensity has increased in both the high and midlatitudes. The changes in storm frequency correlate with changes in winter Northern Hemisphere temperature and support hypotheses that global warming may result in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere.

Improving the Students' Spiritual Intelligence in English Writing through Whole Brain Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santoso, Didik

2016-01-01

The objective of this research was to improve the students' spiritual intelligence in English writing through Whole Brain Learning strategy. Therefore, this study was conducted as a classroom action research. The research pocedure followed the cyclonic process of planning, action, observation, and reflection. This process was preceeded by…

Impacts of raindrop evaporative cooling on tropical cyclone secondary eyewall formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Xuyang; Guan, Liang; Yan, Ziyu

2018-06-01

The impacts of raindrop evaporative cooling on secondary eyewall formation (SEF) of simulated tropical cyclones are investigated using idealized numerical experiments. The results suggest that the raindrop evaporative cooling effect is beneficial to the development of secondary eyewall through the planetary boundary layer (PBL) cold pool process. The evaporative cooling-driven downdrafts bring about the surface cold pool beneath a precipitation cloud. This cold pool dynamics act as a lifting mechanism to trigger the outer convection. The radially outward propagation of spiral rainbands broadens the TC size, by which modifies the surface heat fluxes and thus outer convection. Furthermore, the unbalanced PBL process contributes to the SEF. The radially outward surface outflows forces convection at outer region and thus favors a larger TC size. A larger TC implies an enhanced inertial stability at the outer region, which favors a higher conversion efficiency of diabatic heating to kinetic energy.

Do Tropical Cyclones Shape Shorebird Habitat Patterns? Biogeoclimatology of Snowy Plovers in Florida

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-12

THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 coastal birds in north-west Europe . Using historical data...cyclone season begins in June and ends in November. A cyclone is classified as a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane depending on its lifetime...fledge before the storms arrive and subsequently are able to seek inland protection with the adults during the storms [26,27]. However, tropical cyclones

Proceedings of the 1998 Scientific Conference on Obscuration and Aerosol Research

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-10-01

water surroundings. Figure 2 exhibits minimal terrain effects upon the flow field as streamlines for this simple set of variable terrain for...Cyclone, where the cyclone is fitted with an upstream water spray for washing the cyclone wall. Sampling flow rate is 990 L/min and is controlled by a...990 L/min (35 cfm) and passes the air through a glass cyclone where aerosol particles with sufficient inertia are deposited. Water mist is introduced

Reduced death rates from cyclones in Bangladesh: what more needs to be done?

PubMed Central

Hashizume, Masahiro; Kolivras, Korine N; Overgaard, Hans J; Das, Bivash; Yamamoto, Taro

2012-01-01

Abstract Tropical storms, such as cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons, present major threats to coastal communities. Around two million people worldwide have died and millions have been injured over the past two centuries as a result of tropical storms. Bangladesh is especially vulnerable to tropical cyclones, with around 718 000 deaths from them in the past 50 years. However, cyclone-related mortality in Bangladesh has declined by more than 100-fold over the past 40 years, from 500 000 deaths in 1970 to 4234 in 2007. The main factors responsible for these reduced fatalities and injuries are improved defensive measures, including early warning systems, cyclone shelters, evacuation plans, coastal embankments, reforestation schemes and increased awareness and communication. Although warning systems have been improved, evacuation before a cyclone remains a challenge, with major problems caused by illiteracy, lack of awareness and poor communication. Despite the potential risks of climate change and tropical storms, little empirical knowledge exists on how to develop effective strategies to reduce or mitigate the effects of cyclones. This paper summarizes the most recent data and outlines the strategy adopted in Bangladesh. It offers guidance on how similar strategies can be adopted by other countries vulnerable to tropical storms. Further research is needed to enable countries to limit the risks that cyclones present to public health. PMID:22423166

Spherical Harmonic-based Random Fields Based on Real Particle 3D Data: Improved Numerical Algorithm and Quantitative Comparison to Real Particles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

X Liu; E Garboczi; m Grigoriu

Many parameters affect the cyclone efficiency, and these parameters can have different effects in different flow regimes. Therefore the maximum-efficiency cyclone length is a function of the specific geometry and operating conditions in use. In this study, we obtained a relationship describing the minimum particle diameter or maximum cyclone efficiency by using a theoretical approach based on cyclone geometry and fluid properties. We have compared the empirical predictions with corresponding literature data and observed good agreement. The results address the importance of fluid properties. Inlet and vortex finder cross-sections, cone-apex diameter, inlet Reynolds number and surface roughness are found tomore » be the other important parameters affecting cyclone height. The surface friction coefficient, on the other hand, is difficult to employ in the calculations.We developed a theoretical approach to find the maximum-efficiency heights for cyclones with tangential inlet and we suggested a relation for this height as a function of cyclone geometry and operating parameters. In order to generalize use of the relation, two dimensionless parameters, namely for geometric and operational variables, we defined and results were presented in graphical form such that one can calculate and enter the values of these dimensionless parameters and then can find the maximum efficiency height of his own specific cyclone.« less

Tropical Cyclone Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, P. Peggy; Knosp, Brian W.; Vu, Quoc A.; Yi, Chao; Hristova-Veleva, Svetla M.

2009-01-01

The JPL Tropical Cyclone Infor ma tion System (TCIS) is a Web portal (http://tropicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov) that provides researchers with an extensive set of observed hurricane parameters together with large-scale and convection resolving model outputs. It provides a comprehensive set of high-resolution satellite (see figure), airborne, and in-situ observations in both image and data formats. Large-scale datasets depict the surrounding environmental parameters such as SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and aerosol loading. Model outputs and analysis tools are provided to evaluate model performance and compare observations from different platforms. The system pertains to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storm, the air-sea interaction processes, and the larger-scale environment as depicted by ocean heat content and the aerosol loading of the environment. Currently, the TCIS is populated with satellite observations of all tropical cyclones observed globally during 2005. There is a plan to extend the database both forward in time till present as well as backward to 1998. The portal is powered by a MySQL database and an Apache/Tomcat Web server on a Linux system. The interactive graphic user interface is provided by Google Map.

Low turbulence/high efficiency cyclone separators: Facility qualification results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Razgaitis, R.; Paul, D.D.; Bioarski, A.A.

1985-01-01

The objective of this work is to experimentally investigate the near-wall turbulent flow-fields characteristic of cyclone separators in order to determine the influence of wall-originating turbulence on the separation of fine particles. In particular, seven turbulence suppression concepts will be evaluated with reference to a well-established baseline condition. Concepts which appear attractive will be studied and characterized in more detail. The work accomplished to date is principally the design, construction, and qualification of two of the facilities that will be used to study the various concepts of turbulence suppression. The qualification of the primary facility, the Cyclonic Wind Tunnel (CWT),more » has required the development and adaptation of laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) to perform simultaneous two-dimensional turbulence measurements in a highly swirling flow. A companion facility to the CWT is the Curvilinear Boundary Layer (CBL) apparatus. The purpose of the CBL is to provide a thick, visually-observable near-wall flow region under dynamically similar conditions to the CWT to that a physical understanding of the turbulence suppression process can be obtained. 9 refs., 15 figs.« less

The Sharav Cyclone: Observations and some theoretical considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, P.; Ziv, B.

1989-12-01

A special study of the Sharav Cyclones indicates that they are the result of large-scale weak baroclinicity, enhanced by vigorous boundary-layer baroclinicity between the North African coast and the Mediterranean. It is illustrated how the jet stream plays a major role in the vertical circulation in producing a complex cyclonic circulation dominated by at least three mechanisms: large-scale interior baroclinicity, boundary-layer baroclinicity, and jet stream related circulations. The main characteristics of the Sharav Cyclone (also called the Saharan Depression or Khamsin Depression) in the Mediterranean are reviewed. Unlike the cold winter cyclone, the Sharav Cyclone is a spring cyclone. Its tracks lie mainly along the North African coast and turn to the north near the southeastern Mediterranean. Its warm front is active and is sometimes associated with extremely high surface temperatures. Its cold front is shallow. The Sharav Cyclone moves eastward relatively fast, typically faster than 10 m s-1, and with a small speed variability. In general, there is an upper level trough to the west of the surface low and the surface horizontal scale is of the order of 500-1000 km. Finally, it is frequently associated with heavy dust/sand storms and low visibilities. Some of these features are illustrated in a case study of the April 28-30, 1986, cyclone. Vertical cross sections indicate a deep circulation associated with the exit region of an upper level jet. In addition to presenting evidence that the Sharav Cyclone is a deep tropospheric circulation, it is shown that the transverse indirect circulation at the exit region of the jet is a major component of its circulation. The classic two-level baroclinic model (Phillips, 1954) is applied. The effects of the major diabatic heating due to the sensible heat flux above the North African desert and the large north to south temperature gradients are incorporated through the thermal wind of the basic state. The model predicts the fast eastward motion, the relatively smaller horizontal scale and the fast growth rate. Furthermore, the model predicts an annual maximum growth rate in April and a secondary peak in October, which agrees with the frequency of occurrences of the Sharav Cyclones.

Impact of Parameterization of Physical Processes on Simulation of Track and Intensity of Tropical Cyclone Nargis (2008) with WRF-NMM Model

PubMed Central

Pattanayak, Sujata; Mohanty, U. C.; Osuri, Krishna K.

2012-01-01

The present study is carried out to investigate the performance of different cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer, land surface processes, and microphysics parameterization schemes in the simulation of a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Nargis (2008), developed in the central Bay of Bengal on 27 April 2008. For this purpose, the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM) dynamic core of weather research and forecasting (WRF) system is used. Model-simulated track positions and intensity in terms of minimum central mean sea level pressure (MSLP), maximum surface wind (10 m), and precipitation are verified with observations as provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The estimated optimum combination is reinvestigated with six different initial conditions of the same case to have better conclusion on the performance of WRF-NMM. A few more diagnostic fields like vertical velocity, vorticity, and heat fluxes are also evaluated. The results indicate that cumulus convection play an important role in the movement of the cyclone, and PBL has a crucial role in the intensification of the storm. The combination of Simplified Arakawa Schubert (SAS) convection, Yonsei University (YSU) PBL, NMM land surface, and Ferrier microphysics parameterization schemes in WRF-NMM give better track and intensity forecast with minimum vector displacement error. PMID:22701366

Interactions between the Somali Current eddies during the summer monsoon: insights from a numerical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akuetevi, C. Q. C.; Barnier, B.; Verron, J.; Molines, J.-M.; Lecointre, A.

2016-02-01

Three hindcast simulations of the global ocean circulation differing by resolution (1/4 or 1/12°) or parametrization or atmospheric forcing are used to describe the interactions between the large anticyclonic eddies generated by the Somali Current system during the Southwest Monsoon. The present investigation of the Somalian coherent eddy structures allows us to identify the origin and the subsequent development of the cyclones flanked upon the Great Whirl (GW) previously identified by Beal and Donohue (2013) in satellite observations and to establish that similar cyclones are also flanked upon the Southern Gyre (SG). These cyclones are identified as potential actors in mixing water masses within the large eddies and offshore the coast of Somalia. All three simulations bring to light that during the period when the Southwest Monsoon is well established, the SG moves northward along the Somali coast and encounters the GW. The interaction between the SG and the GW is a collision without merging, in a way that has not been described in observations up to now. During the collision the GW is pushed to the east of Socotra Island, sheds several smaller patches of anticyclonic vorticity, and often reforms into the Socotra Eddy, thus proposing a formation mechanism for that eddy. During this process the GW gives up its place to the SG. This process is robust throughout the three simulations.

Leveraging LSTM for rapid intensifications prediction of tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Yang, R.; Yang, C.; Yu, M.; Hu, F.; Jiang, Y.

2017-10-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) usually cause severe damages and destructions. TC intensity forecasting helps people prepare for the extreme weather and could save lives and properties. Rapid Intensifications (RI) of TCs are the major error sources of TC intensity forecasting. A large number of factors, such as sea surface temperature and wind shear, affect the RI processes of TCs. Quite a lot of work have been done to identify the combination of conditions most favorable to RI. In this study, deep learning method is utilized to combine conditions for RI prediction of TCs. Experiments show that the long short-term memory (LSTM) network provides the ability to leverage past conditions to predict TC rapid intensifications.

Edouard's (2014) Intensification: An Investigation of Precipitation and Thermodynamic Symmetrization Using a Cloud-Resolving Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvey, G., III; Zipser, E. J.

2017-12-01

Literature over the past 10 years has provided conflicting views about the relative importance of precipitation symmetry and convective intensity for tropical cyclone intensification. While several modeling studies (Braun et al. 2006, Guimond et al. 2010, Molinari et al. 2013, Rogers et al. 2013, 2015) have favored intense deep convection, satellite-based composite studies, on the other hand, have offered a differing pathway towards tropical cyclone intensification emphasizing shallow to moderate precipitation (Zagrodnik and Jiang 2014, Tao and Jiang 2015, Alvey et al. 2015). This has left fundamental questions unanswered regarding the relationships between precipitation and TC intensity change: What are the dominant precipitation types, their spatial distributions, and the timing of these features with respect to intensification? And what causes precipitation to symmetrize and increase in the upshear quadrants? One potentially important process, the humidification of upshear quadrants, has been identified to occur nearly coincidental with increased precipitation symmetry prior to and during Edouard's (2014) intensification (Zawislak et al. 2016). While observations from the Global Hawk and P-3 provided important snapshots throughout the life cycle of Edouard (2014), numerical simulations complement and reveal, in more detail, the processes behind these relationships through filling an 48-hour airborne observational gap during a crucial period of intensification between 12-14 Sept. We use a high resolution, full physics ensemble of Edouard (2014) simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model - Advanced Research WRF (ARW; Skamarock et al., 2008). We deem the quantification of azimuthal variations — with a focus on the shear-relative quadrants — as particularly important, especially early in intensification when thermodynamic and precipitation distributions tend to be more asymmetric. Using a water vapor budget and trajectories we examine whether precipitation is responsible for upshear humidification (moistening), or if an increase is due to advection from the environment, or simply a result of alignment (perhaps due to a decrease in vertical shear).

Impacts of aerosol-monsoon interaction on rainfall and circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shi, Jainn-Jong; Matsui, T.; Chin, M.; Tan, Qian; Peters-Lidard, C.; Tao, W. K.

2017-09-01

The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all-India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. Using the NASA Unified-physics Weather Research Forecast (NUWRF) model with fully interactive aerosol physics and dynamics, we carried out three sets of 7-day ensemble model forecast experiments: (1) control with no aerosol, (2) aerosol radiative effect only and (3) aerosol radiative and aerosol-cloud-microphysics effects, to study the impacts of aerosol-monsoon interactions on monsoon variability over the NIHF during the summer of 2008. Results show that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), i.e., dust aerosol transport, and dynamical feedback processes induced by aerosol-radiative heating, plays a key role in altering the large-scale monsoon circulation system, reflected by an increased north-south tropospheric temperature gradient, a northward shift of heavy monsoon rainfall, advancing the monsoon onset by 1-5 days over the HF, consistent with the EHP hypothesis (Lau et al. in Clim Dyn 26(7-8):855-864, 2006). Additionally, we found that dust aerosols, via the semi-direct effect, increase atmospheric stability, and cause the dissipation of a developing monsoon onset cyclone over northeastern India/northern Bay of Bengal. Eventually, in a matter of several days, ARI transforms the developing monsoon cyclone into meso-scale convective cells along the HF slopes. Aerosol-Cloud-microphysics Interaction (ACI) further enhances the ARI effect in invigorating the deep convection cells and speeding up the transformation processes. Results indicate that even in short-term (up to weekly) numerical forecasting of monsoon circulation and rainfall, effects of aerosol-monsoon interaction can be substantial and cannot be ignored.

The Importance of Coral Larval Recruitment for the Recovery of Reefs Impacted by Cyclone Yasi in the Central Great Barrier Reef

PubMed Central

Lukoschek, Vimoksalehi; Cross, Peter; Torda, Gergely; Zimmerman, Rachel; Willis, Bette L.

2013-01-01

Cyclone Yasi, one of the most severe tropical storms on record, crossed the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in February 2011, bringing wind speeds of up to 285 km hr−1 and wave heights of at least 10 m, and causing massive destruction to exposed reefs in the Palm Island Group. Following the cyclone, mean (± S.E.) hard coral cover ranged from just 2.1 (0.2) % to 5.3 (0.4) % on exposed reefs and no reproductively mature colonies of any species of Acropora remained. Although no fragments of Acropora were found at impacted exposed sites following the cyclone, small juvenile colonies of Acropora (<10 cm diameter) were present, suggesting that their small size and compact morphologies enabled them to survive the cyclone. By contrast, sheltered reefs appeared to be unaffected by the cyclone. Mean (± S.E.) hard coral cover ranged from 18.2 (2.4) % to 30.0 (1.0) % and a large proportion of colonies of Acropora were reproductively mature. Macroalgae accounted for 8 to 16% of benthic cover at exposed sites impacted by cyclone Yasi but were absent at sheltered sites. Mean (± S.E.) recruitment of acroporids to settlement tiles declined from 25.3 (4.8) recruits tile−1 in the pre-cyclone spawning event (2010) to 15.4 (2.2) recruits tile−1 in the first post-cyclone spawning event (2011). Yet, post-cyclone recruitment did not differ between exposed (15.2±2.1 S.E.) and sheltered sites (15.6±2.2 S.E.), despite the loss of reproductive colonies at the exposed sites, indicating larval input from external sources. Spatial variation in impacts, the survival of small colonies, and larval replenishment to impacted reefs suggest that populations of Acropora have the potential to recover from this severe disturbance, provided that the Palm Islands are not impacted by acute disturbances or suffer additional chronic stressors in the near future. PMID:23755223

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-12-01

Extreme cyclone events often occur during Arctic winters, and are of concern as they transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, which is associated with mixed-phase clouds and increased longwave downward radiation, and can cause temperatures to rise above freezing resulting in wintertime sea-ice melting or retarded sea-ice growth. With Arctic amplification and associated reduced sea-ice cover and warmer sea surface temperatures, the occurrence of extreme cyclones events could be a plausible scenario. We calculate the spatial patterns, and changes and trends of the number of extreme cyclone events in the Arctic based on ERA-Interim six-hourly sea level pressure (SLP) data for winter (November-February) 1979-2015. Further, we analyze the SLP data from the Ny-Ålesund station for the same 37 year period. We define an extreme cyclone event by an extreme low central pressure (SLP below 985 hPa, which is the 5th percentile of the Ny-Ålesund/N-ICE2015 SLP data). Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called `weather bombs') occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade, according to the Ny-Ålesund data. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones drive considerable warming in that region, consistent with the observed significant winter warming of 3 K/decade. The positive winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as "blocking-like" circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

The importance of coral larval recruitment for the recovery of reefs impacted by cyclone Yasi in the central Great Barrier Reef.

PubMed

Lukoschek, Vimoksalehi; Cross, Peter; Torda, Gergely; Zimmerman, Rachel; Willis, Bette L

2013-01-01

Cyclone Yasi, one of the most severe tropical storms on record, crossed the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in February 2011, bringing wind speeds of up to 285 km hr⁻¹ and wave heights of at least 10 m, and causing massive destruction to exposed reefs in the Palm Island Group. Following the cyclone, mean (± S.E.) hard coral cover ranged from just 2.1 (0.2) % to 5.3 (0.4) % on exposed reefs and no reproductively mature colonies of any species of Acropora remained. Although no fragments of Acropora were found at impacted exposed sites following the cyclone, small juvenile colonies of Acropora (<10 cm diameter) were present, suggesting that their small size and compact morphologies enabled them to survive the cyclone. By contrast, sheltered reefs appeared to be unaffected by the cyclone. Mean (± S.E.) hard coral cover ranged from 18.2 (2.4) % to 30.0 (1.0) % and a large proportion of colonies of Acropora were reproductively mature. Macroalgae accounted for 8 to 16% of benthic cover at exposed sites impacted by cyclone Yasi but were absent at sheltered sites. Mean (± S.E.) recruitment of acroporids to settlement tiles declined from 25.3 (4.8) recruits tile⁻¹ in the pre-cyclone spawning event (2010) to 15.4 (2.2) recruits tile⁻¹ in the first post-cyclone spawning event (2011). Yet, post-cyclone recruitment did not differ between exposed (15.2±2.1 S.E.) and sheltered sites (15.6±2.2 S.E.), despite the loss of reproductive colonies at the exposed sites, indicating larval input from external sources. Spatial variation in impacts, the survival of small colonies, and larval replenishment to impacted reefs suggest that populations of Acropora have the potential to recover from this severe disturbance, provided that the Palm Islands are not impacted by acute disturbances or suffer additional chronic stressors in the near future.

Response of primary and secondary rainforest flowers and fruits to a cyclone, and implications for plant-servicing bats.

PubMed

Scanlon, Annette T; Petit, Sophie; Tuiwawa, Marika; Naikatini, Alivereti

2018-02-24

The response of primary (PF) and secondary (SF) rainforests to cyclones has broad implications for servicing fauna and the resilience of forest functions. We collected fine-scale data on the reproductive phenology of plant communities in Fijian PF and SF in 12 monthly surveys before and after Cyclone Tomas (2010). We generated a resource index from the reproductive loads of 2218 trees and 1150 non-trees (>190 species) and trunk and stem diameter to assess patterns in resource abundance for nectarivores and frugivores (hereafter NF resources). We aimed to determine (i) whether species richness of NF resources differed between forests; (ii) the patterns of resilience of NF resources at community level in both forests after a cyclone; and (iii) the effect of response on NF resources for plant-servicing bats (Pteropodidae). In 12 months preceding the cyclone, NF resources were greater in PF trees; non-tree resources fluctuated and were greater in SF. Lower species richness of NF resources in SF indicated that fewer opportunities exist there for exploitation by a diverse fauna. More resources were available for bats in PF. In 12 months following the cyclone, PF flowers and fruits, and SF fruits specifically used by pteropodid bats decreased for trees. Non-tree resources were especially susceptible to the cyclone. No universal pattern of decline was associated with the cyclone; instead, some NF resources declined and others were resilient or responded rapidly to a post-cyclone environment. Both PF and SF demonstrated resilience at the community level via increased flower survival (PF) and rapid flower production (SF). Reduced species richness of NF resources in SF will compromise future resilience and response to disturbance, including for threatened pteropodid bat species. These findings are critical for long-term management of forests, given predicted increases in cyclone frequency and intensity associated with anthropogenic climate change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Disaster, Deprivation and Death: Large but delayed infant mortality in the wake of Filipino tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.; Hsiang, S. M.

2011-12-01

Tropical cyclones are some of the most disastrous and damaging of climate events, and estimates of their destructive potential abound in the natural and social sciences. Nonetheless, there have been few systematic estimates of cyclones' impact on children's health. This is concerning because cyclones leave in their wake a swath of asset losses and economic deprivation, both known to be strong drivers of poor health outcomes among children. In this paper we provide a household-level estimate of the effect of tropical cyclones on infant mortality in the Philippines, a country with one of the most active cyclone climatologies in the world. We reconstruct historical cyclones with detailed spatial and temporal resolution, allowing us to estimate the multi-year effects of cyclones on individuals living in specific locations. We combine the cyclone reconstruction with woman-level fertility and mortality data from four waves of the Filipino Demographic and Health Survey, providing birth histories for over 55,000 women. In multiple regressions that control for year and region fixed effects as well as intra-annual climate variation, we find that there is a pronounced and robust increase in female infant mortality among poor families in the 12-24 months after storms hit. The estimated mortality rate among this demographic subgroup is much larger than official mortality rates reported by the Filipino government immediately after storms, implying that much of a cyclone's human cost arrives well after the storm has passed. We find that high infant mortality rates are associated with declines in poor families' income and expenditures, including consumption of food and medical services, suggesting that the mechanism by which these deaths are effected may be economic deprivation. These results indicate that a major health and welfare impact of storms has been thus far overlooked, but may be easily prevented through appropriately targeted income support policies.

Role of the Southwest Tropical Indian Ocean on the Modulation of Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, J. M.; Bulusu, S.

2016-02-01

The Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR), located in the Indian Ocean and bound by 55°E-65°E and 5°S-12°S, is a key region for air-sea interaction. This feature inhabits one of the seven ocean basins where tropical cyclones regularly form and is unique in that the variability of the subsurface can influence cyclogenesis. Tropical cyclone days for this region span from November through April, with peaks in the months of January and February. The influence of thermocline variation is particularly strong during the months of December through May and it is known that a high correlation exists between the depth of the thermocline and sea surface temperature (key ingredient for cyclogenesis). Past research provides evidence that more tropical cyclone days are observed in Southwest Tropical Indian Ocean (SWTIO) during austral summers with a deep thermocline ridge than in austral summers when a shallow thermocline ridge exists. The formation and thickness of the Barrier layer (BL) have also been shown to impact tropical cyclones in this region. BL formation is an important parameter for surface heat exchange. The amount of salt in the boundary layer may also effect heat exchange and thus cyclones. Other ocean basins have verified that salt-stratified barrier layers influence the intensification of tropical cyclones, however, the role that salinity in SWTIO plays in the modulation of tropical cycles has still yet to be explored. This study further explores how the dynamic properties of the SCTR influence the modulation of cyclones. Primarily Argo observations of salinity and temperature along with Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Aquarius salinity, and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) simulations are used to examine this influence of the BL and salinity on cyclone formation and intensity in this region. This study is progressed with a particular focus on the austral summer of 2012/2013 when seven tropical cyclones developed in the region.

Tropical Cyclone Signatures in Atmospheric Convective Available Potential Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Studholme, Joshua; Gulev, Sergey

2016-04-01

Tropical cyclones play an important role in the climate system providing transports of energy and water vapor, forcing the ocean, and also affecting mid-latitude circulation phenomena. Tropical cyclone tracks experience strong interannual variability and in addition, longer term trend-like changes in all ocean basins. Analysis of recent historical data reveal a poleward shift in the locations of tropical cyclone tracks in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (Kossin et al. 2014, Nature, 509, 349-352). The physical consequences of these alterations are largely unconstrained. For example, the increasing encroachment of tropical cyclone activity into the extra-tropical environment presents a novel and still poorly understood paradigm for tropical-extratropical interactions. In this respect, the role that the atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) plays in the dynamics of tropical cyclones is highly interesting. The two characteristic global-scale spatial patterns in CAPE are identified using EOF analysis. The first pattern shows an abundance of CAPE in the centre of the Pacific and corresponds to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The second one is capturing positive CAPE anomalies in the oceanic tropics and negative anomalies over equatorial Africa. Associated with these buoyancy patterns, alterations in tropical cyclone activity occur in all basins forming both zonal and meridional patterns. Atmospheric buoyancy is the trigger for deep convection, and subsequently cyclone genesis. This is the mechanism of impact upon location at the start of cyclone tracks. It is found to have less impact upon where cyclones subsequently move, whether or not they undergo extratropical transition and when and where they experience lysis. It is shown that CAPE plays a critical role in the general circulation in the tropics which in turn is the larger steering context for embedded systems within the Walker and Hadley cells. So this lack of `latter life' impact posits an interesting start for further theoretical and physical consideration.

Tropical Cyclone-Driven Sediment Dynamics Over the Australian North West Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufois, François; Lowe, Ryan J.; Branson, Paul; Fearns, Peter

2017-12-01

Owing to their strong forcing at the air-sea interface, tropical cyclones are a major driver of hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics of continental shelves, strongly impacting marine habitats and offshore industries. Despite the North West Shelf of Australia being one of the most frequently impacted tropical cyclone regions worldwide, there is limited knowledge of how tropical cyclones influence the sediment dynamics of this shelf region, including the significance of these episodic extreme events to the normal background conditions that occur. Using an extensive 2 year data set of the in situ sediment dynamics and 14 yearlong calibrated satellite ocean-color data set, we demonstrate that alongshore propagating cyclones are responsible for simultaneously generating both strong wave-induced sediment resuspension events and significant southwestward subtidal currents. Over the 2 year study period, two particular cyclones (Iggy and Narelle) dominated the sediment fluxes resulting in a residual southwestward sediment transport over the southern part of the shelf. By analyzing results from a long-term (37 year) wind and wave hindcast, our results suggest that at least 16 tropical cyclones had a strong potential to contribute to that southwestward sediment pathway in a similar way to Iggy and Narelle.

Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, Jonathan J.; Holland, Marika M.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2017-06-01

The dramatic warming of the Arctic over the last three decades has reduced both the thickness and extent of sea ice, opening opportunities for business in diverse sectors and increasing human exposure to meteorological hazards in the Arctic. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in extreme cyclones in the region, therefore increasing this hazard. In this study, we investigate the response of Arctic synoptic scale cyclones to climate change in a large initial value ensemble of future climate projections with the CESM1-CAM5 climate model (CESM-LE). We find that the response of Arctic cyclones in these simulations varies with season, with significant reductions in cyclone dynamic intensity across the Arctic basin in winter, but with contrasting increases in summer intensity within the region known as the Arctic Ocean cyclone maximum. There is also a significant reduction in winter cyclogenesis events within the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian sea region. We conclude that these differences in the response of cyclone intensity and cyclogenesis, with season, appear to be closely linked to changes in surface temperature gradients in the high latitudes, with Arctic poleward temperature gradients increasing in summer, but decreasing in winter.

Baroclinic Instability and Energy Transfer underlying the Kuroshio eddy shedding process in Luzon Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, J.

2016-02-01

The Kuroshio eddy shedding in Luzon Strait has been intensively studied, due to its important role in the energy budgets of the special gap-passing western boundary current and its potential influence to South China Sea. In this study, the eddy-mean flow interaction is first diagnosed with two classical "stationary" methods. Both show that, in a "time-averaged" sense, baroclinic instability and energy transfer provides the energy source for Kuroshio anticyclonic eddy shedding and the accompanied cyclonic eddy growth in Luzon Strait (this eddy pair will be called AC/C-Es for short). To take into account the "nonstationary and intermittent" nature, the temporal evolutions of energy transfer during a typical Kuroshio eddy shedding process are investigated using the localized multi-scale-window energy and vorticity analysis, or MS-EVA for short. Two stages are roughly distinguished according to the evolutionary nature of this process: the growing stage and the shedding stage. In the growing stage, the energy source straddles both the AC/C-Es, indicating mean flow supplies potential energy to both AC/C-Es for growth; the energy transfer hot spot persistently strengthens and expands horizontally as well as vertically from 200-300m to 100-400m depth range, culminating in a maximum of approximately 1.5×10-7 m2s-3. In the shedding stage, the energy source moves onto the accompanied cyclonic eddy, i.e., the mean flow now supplies energy mainly to the cyclonic eddy, making it strong enough to cut off the anticyclonic eddy from Kuroshio, leading to the Kuroshio eddy shedding.

How do beetle assemblages respond to cyclonic disturbance of a fragmented tropical rainforest landscape?

PubMed

Grimbacher, Peter S; Stork, Nigel E

2009-09-01

There are surprisingly few studies documenting effects of tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) on rainforest animals, and especially insects, considering that many tropical forests are frequently affected by cyclonic disturbance. Consequently, we sampled a beetle assemblage inhabiting 18 upland rainforest sites in a fragmented landscape in north-eastern Queensland, Australia, using a standardised sampling protocol in 2002 and again 12 months after the passage of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry (March 2006). The spatial configuration of sites allowed us to test if the effects of a cyclone and those from fragmentation interact. From all insect samples we extracted 12,568 beetles of 382 species from ten families. Beetle species composition was significantly different pre-and post-cyclone although the magnitude of faunal change was not large with 205 species, representing 96% of all individuals, present in both sampling events. Sites with the greatest changes to structure had the greatest changes in species composition. At the site level, increases in woody debris and wood-feeding beetle (Scolytinae) counts were significantly correlated but changes in the percent of ground vegetation were not mirrored by changes in the abundance of foliage-feeding beetles (Chrysomelidae). The overall direction of beetle assemblage change was consistent with increasing aridity, presumably caused by the loss of canopy cover. Sites with the greatest canopy loss had the strongest changes in the proportion of species previously identified in the pre-cyclone study as preferring arid or moist rainforest environments. The magnitude of fragmentation effects was virtually unaltered by the passage of Cyclone Larry. We postulate that in the short-term the effects of cyclonic disturbance and forest fragmentation both reduce the extent of moist, interior habitat.

Initial Assessment of Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKague, D. S.; Ruf, C. S.

2017-12-01

The NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYNSS) mission provides high temporal resolution observations of cyclones from a constellation of eight low-Earth orbiting satellites. Using the relatively new technique of Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R), all-weather observations are possible, penetrating even deep convection within hurricane eye walls. The compact nature of the GNSS-R receivers permits the use of small satellites, which in turn enables the launch of a constellation of satellites from a single launch vehicle. Launched in December of 2016, the eight CYGNSS satellites provide 25 km resolution observations of mean square slope (surface roughness) and surface winds with a 2.8 hour median revisit time from 38 S to 38 N degrees latitude. In addition to the calibration and validation of CYGNSS sea state observations, the CYGNSS science team is assessing the ability of the mission to provide estimates of cyclone size, intensity, and integrated kinetic energy. With its all-weather ability and high temporal resolution, the CYGNSS mission will add significantly to our ability to monitor cyclone genesis and intensification and will significantly reduce uncertainties in our ability to estimate cyclone intensity, a key variable in predicting its destructive potential. Members of the CYGNSS Science Team are also assessing the assimilation of CYGNSS data into hurricane forecast models to determine the impact of the data on forecast skill, using the data to study extra-tropical cyclones, and looking at connections between tropical cyclones and global scale weather, including the global hydrologic cycle. This presentation will focus on the assessment of early on-orbit observations of cyclones with respect to these various applications.

Interactions Between Vestige Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Mid-Latitude Storms Over Mediterranean Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Mehta, Amita; Mugnai, Alberto; Tripoli, Gregory J.

2007-01-01

One of the more interesting tropical-mid-latitude interactions is one that has important effects on precipitation within the Mediterranean basin. This interaction consists of an Atlantic tropical cyclone vestige whose original disturbance travels eastward and northward across Atlantic basin, eventually intermingling with a mid-latitude cyclone entering southern Europe and/or the \\bestern Mediterranean Sea. The period for these interactions is from mid-September through November. If the tropical cyclone and its vestige is able to make the eastward Atlantic transit within the low to mid-levels, or if an upper level potential vorticity perturbation Cjet streak) emitted by a Hurricane in its latter stages within the central Atlantic is able to propagate into and along the longwave pattern affecting the western Mediterranean Sea (MED), then there is the prospect for the tropical cyclone remnant to produce a major modification of the mid-latitude storm system preparing to affect the MED region. For such an occurrence to take place, it is necessary for an amplifying baroclinic perturbation to be already situated to the rear of a longwave trough, or to be excited by the emitted jet streak to the rear of a longwave trough -- in either case, preparing to affect the western MED. The Algiers City flood of 9-10 November 2001, which killed some 700 people, was produced by a Mediterranean cyclone that had been influenced by two vestige Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1,orenzo and Noel. A published modeling study involving various of this study's authors has already described the dynamical development of the Algiers storm as it amplified from a developing baroclinic disturbance in the Rossby wave train, into a northern Africa hazardous flood system, then lingered in the western MED as a semi-intense warm core cyclone. In our new modeling experiments, we investigate the impact of what might have happened in the eventual precipitation field. had the main features of the tropical cyclones NOT interacted with thc developing baroclinic disturbance as it penetrated the western MED. To do so, we first remove the moisture and dynamical features of the two vestigial tropical cyclones from the large scale meteorological fields used to initialize the Mediterranean cyclone simulation. This is done through depletion of the moisture front associated with the two tropical cyclones, accomplished by relaxation to the suppressed east Atlantic conditions. The dynamical effects are removed through energetic destruction of the latter stages of the eastward traveling tropical cyclones, accomplished by lowering the underlying sea surface temperatures. A precipitation-distribution impact experiment is then run by initializing with the customized large-scale fields. The final precipitation-impact field is described by differencing the "impact" run from the "control" run -- the latter defined as the original simulation which intrinsically includes the effects of the two vestigial tropical cyclones.

The Impact of Gulf Stream-Induced Diabatic Forcing on Coastal Mid-Atlantic Surface Cyclogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cione, Joseph Jerome

In this dissertation, numerical experiments were conducted using a mesoscale atmospheric model developed at North Carolina State University. Three sets of numerical experiments were conducted and were designed to: quantify the impact Gulf Stream frontal distance, initial surface air temperature and cold air outbreak timing each have on the subsequent development of the marine atmospheric boundary layer during periods of offshore cold advection; investigate critical processes associated with Gulf Stream -induced mesocyclogenesis and; elucidate the role SST gradients and surface fluxes of heat and moisture have on the intensification and track of propagating mesocyclonic systems within the highly baroclinic Gulf Stream region. A major finding from the offshore cold advection simulations is that the initial air-sea contrast is the dominant forcing mechanism linked to the offshore circulation development and marine boundary layer modification. Results from the mesocyclogenesis experiments indicate that surface cyclogenesis was simulated to occur along a Gulf Stream meander in a region where the gradients in sea surface temperature (SST) were maximized. Results from sensitivity experiments illustrate that changes in the Gulf Stream SST gradient pattern can act to alter the timing and degree of cyclonic development simulated, while the inclusion of surface fluxes and moist convective processes during the development phase act to strongly enhance the intensity and/or occurrence of simulated mesocyclogenesis. Both observational and numerical results from studies investigating the impact strong Gulf Stream SST gradients have on the development of pre-existing, propagating cyclonic systems show that the baroclinic nature of the low level environment near the circulation center (as well as the degree of simulated/observed surface cyclonic intensification) appear to be highly dependent upon the mesoscale storm track within the Gulf Stream frontal zone. Furthermore, the numerical storm track experiments conducted in this research illustrate that surfaces fluxes can act to significantly alter the storm track of the surface mesocyclone (in addition to impacting the overall intensification of the simulated cyclonic system). This work also presents the technique development and operational utilization of the recently devised Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index (ASCII). The index continues to be implemented by the National Weather Service at the Raleigh-Durham and surrounding coastal forecast offices, and to date, has been successfully utilized for 11 coastal winter storm events over the February 1994-January 1996 period.

Upper oceanic response to tropical cyclone Phailin in the Bay of Bengal using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, Kumar Ravi; Pant, Vimlesh

2017-01-01

A numerical simulation of very severe cyclonic storm `Phailin', which originated in southeastern Bay of Bengal (BoB) and propagated northwestward during 10-15 October 2013, was carried out using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. A Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) was used to make exchanges of fluxes consistent between the atmospheric model `Weather Research and Forecasting' (WRF) and ocean circulation model `Regional Ocean Modelling System' (ROMS) components of the `Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport' (COAWST) modelling system. The track and intensity of tropical cyclone (TC) Phailin simulated by the WRF component of the coupled model agrees well with the best-track estimates reported by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Ocean model component (ROMS) was configured over the BoB domain; it utilized the wind stress and net surface heat fluxes from the WRF model to investigate upper oceanic response to the passage of TC Phailin. The coupled model shows pronounced sea surface cooling (2-2.5 °C) and an increase in sea surface salinity (SSS) (2-3 psu) after 06 GMT on 12 October 2013 over the northwestern BoB. Signature of this surface cooling was also observed in satellite data and buoy measurements. The oceanic mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals relative roles of different oceanic processes in controlling the mixed layer temperature over the region of observed cooling. The heat budget highlighted major contributions from horizontal advection and vertical entrainment processes in governing the mixed layer cooling (up to -0.1 °C h-1) and, thereby, reduction in sea surface temperature (SST) in the northwestern BoB during 11-12 October 2013. During the post-cyclone period, the net heat flux at surface regained its diurnal variations with a noontime peak that provided a warming tendency up to 0.05 °C h-1 in the mixed layer. Clear signatures of TC-induced upwelling are seen in vertical velocity (about 2.5 × 10-3 m s-1), rise in isotherms and isohalines along 85-88° E longitudes in the northwestern BoB. The study demonstrates that a coupled atmosphere-ocean model (WRF + ROMS) serves as a useful tool to investigate oceanic response to the passage of cyclones.

Improving Satellite Observation Utilization for Model Initialization with Machine Learning: An Introduction and Tackling the "Labeled Dataset" Challenge for Cyclones Around the World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfanti, C. E.; Stewart, J.; Lee, Y. J.; Govett, M.; Trailovic, L.; Etherton, B.

2017-12-01

One of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) goals is to provide timely and reliable weather forecasts to support important decisions when and where people need it for safety, emergencies, planning for day-to-day activities. Satellite data is essential for areas lacking in-situ observations for use as initial conditions in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models, such as spans of the ocean or remote areas of land. Currently only about 7% of total received satellite data is selected for use and from that, an even smaller percentage ever are assimilated into NWP models. With machine learning, the computational and time costs needed for satellite data selection can be greatly reduced. We study various machine learning approaches to process orders of magnitude more satellite data in significantly less time allowing for a greater quantity and more intelligent selection of data to be used for assimilation purposes. Given the future launches of satellites in the upcoming years, machine learning is capable of being applied for better selection of Regions of Interest (ROI) in the magnitudes more of satellite data that will be received. This paper discusses the background of machine learning methods as applied to weather forecasting and the challenges of creating a "labeled dataset" for training and testing purposes. In the training stage of supervised machine learning, labeled data are important to identify a ROI as either true or false so that the model knows what signatures in satellite data to identify. Authors have selected cyclones, including tropical cyclones and mid-latitude lows, as ROI for their machine learning purposes and created a labeled dataset of true or false for ROI from Global Forecast System (GFS) reanalysis data. A dataset like this does not yet exist and given the need for a high quantity of samples, is was decided this was best done with automation. This process was done by developing a program similar to the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) tropical cyclone tracker by Marchok that was used to identify cyclones based off its physical characteristics. We will discuss the methods and challenges to creating this dataset and the dataset's use for our current supervised machine learning model as well as use for future work on events such as convection initiation.

Anti-cyclonic circulation driven by the estuarine circulation in a gulf type ROFI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujiwara, T.; Sanford, L. P.; Nakatsuji, K.; Sugiyama, Y.

1997-08-01

Baroclinic residual circulation processes are examined in gulf type Regions Of Freshwater Influence (ROFIs), which have large rivers discharging into a rounded head wider than the Rossby internal deformation radius. Theoretical and observational investigations concentrate on Ise Bay, Japan, with supporting data from Osaka Bay and Tokyo Bay. Simplified analytical solutions are derived to describe the primary features of the circulation. Three dimensional residual current data collected using moored current meters and shipboard acoustic doppler current profilers (ADCPs), satellite imagery and density structure data observed using STDs, are presented for comparison to the theoretical predictions. There are three key points to understanding the resulting circulation in gulf type ROFIs. First, there are likely to be three distinct water masses: the river plume, a brackish upper layer, and a higher salinity lower layer. Second, baroclinic processes in gulf type ROFIs are influenced by the Earth's rotation at first order. Residual currents are quasi-geostrophic and potential vorticity is approximately conserved. Third, the combined effects of a classical longitudinal estuarine circulation and the Earth's rotation are both necessary to produce the resulting circulation. Anti-cyclonic vorticity is generated in the upper layer by the horizontal divergence associated with upward entrainment, which is part of the estuarine circulation. The interaction between anti-cyclonic vorticity and horizontal divergence results in two regions of qualitatively different circulation, with gyre-like circulation near the bay head and uniformly seaward anti-cyclonicly sheared flow further towards the mouth. The stagnation point separating the two regions is closer to (further away from) the bay head for stronger (weaker) horizontal divergence, respectively. The vorticity and spin-up time of this circulation are-(ƒ-ω 1)/2 and h/2w 0, respectively, where ƒ is the Coriolis parameter, ω 1 is the vorticity of the lower layer, h is the depth of the upper layer and w 0 is the upward entrainment velocity across the pycnocline. Under high discharge conditions the axis of the river plume proceeds in a right bounded direction, describing an inertial circle clearly seen in satellite images. Under low discharge conditions the river plume is deflected in a left bounded direction by the anti-cyclonic circulation of the upper layer.

Utilization of satellite cloud information to diagnose the energy state and transformations in extratropical cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, P. J.

1985-01-01

An important component of the research was a continuing investigation of the impact of latent release on extratropical cyclone development. Previous efforts to accomplish this task have focused on the energy balance and the vertical motion field of an intense winter extratropical cyclone over the United States. During this fiscal year researchers turned their attention to a more fundamental diagnostic variable, the height tendency. Central to this effort is the use of a modified form of the quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation, in which geostrophic wind components have been replaced by observed winds and a latent heat release term has been added. This methodology was adopted to produce a simple diagnostic model which retains the essential mechanisms of quasi-geostrophic theory but more faithfully describes observed wave development when the Rossby Number approaches and exceeds 0.5. Results to date indicate that the new model yields height tendencies that are superior to those obtained from the quasi-geostrophic formulation and are sufficiently close to the observed tendencies to be a useful tool for diagnosing the principle large-scale forcing mechanisms in th e700-300 mb layer. Of the three forcing terms included in the new model, vortity advection is in general dominant. The most persistent challenge to this dominance is made by the thermal advection. On the whole, latent heat release plays a secondary role. Finally, during the rapid intensification observed for this cyclone, all three processes complement each other in forcing height falls.

An evaluation of the real-time tropical cyclone forecast skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the western North Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiorino, Michael; Goerss, James S.; Jensen, Jack J.; Harrison, Edward J., Jr.

1993-01-01

The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones.

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

2016-01-01

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

MUNICIPAL WASTE COMBUSTION ASSESSMENT: FOSSIL FUEL CO-FIRING

EPA Science Inventory

The report identifies refuse derived fuel (RDF) processing operations and various RDF types; describes such fossil fuel co-firing techniques as coal fired spreader stokers, pulverized coal wall fired boilers, pulverized coal tangentially fired boilers, and cyclone fired boilers; ...

NASA Sees Cyclone Chapala Approaching Landfall in Yemen

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

On Nov. 2, 2015 at 09:40 UTC (4:40 p.m. EDT) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image of Tropical Cyclone Chapala as the eye of the storm was approaching the Yemen coast. Chapala maintained an eye, although it appeared cloud-covered. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows the system has maintained a 15-nautical-mile-wide eye and structure. The image was created by the MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland. Chapala weakened from category four intensity a couple days ago while maintaining a course that steers it toward Yemen. Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team Read more: www.nasa.gov/f…/goddard/chapala-northern-indian-ocean NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Introducing Enabling Computational Tools to the Climate Sciences: Multi-Resolution Climate Modeling with Adaptive Cubed-Sphere Grids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jablonowski, Christiane

The research investigates and advances strategies how to bridge the scale discrepancies between local, regional and global phenomena in climate models without the prohibitive computational costs of global cloud-resolving simulations. In particular, the research explores new frontiers in computational geoscience by introducing high-order Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) techniques into climate research. AMR and statically-adapted variable-resolution approaches represent an emerging trend for atmospheric models and are likely to become the new norm in future-generation weather and climate models. The research advances the understanding of multi-scale interactions in the climate system and showcases a pathway how to model these interactions effectively withmore » advanced computational tools, like the Chombo AMR library developed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The research is interdisciplinary and combines applied mathematics, scientific computing and the atmospheric sciences. In this research project, a hierarchy of high-order atmospheric models on cubed-sphere computational grids have been developed that serve as an algorithmic prototype for the finite-volume solution-adaptive Chombo-AMR approach. The foci of the investigations have lied on the characteristics of both static mesh adaptations and dynamically-adaptive grids that can capture flow fields of interest like tropical cyclones. Six research themes have been chosen. These are (1) the introduction of adaptive mesh refinement techniques into the climate sciences, (2) advanced algorithms for nonhydrostatic atmospheric dynamical cores, (3) an assessment of the interplay between resolved-scale dynamical motions and subgrid-scale physical parameterizations, (4) evaluation techniques for atmospheric model hierarchies, (5) the comparison of AMR refinement strategies and (6) tropical cyclone studies with a focus on multi-scale interactions and variable-resolution modeling. The results of this research project demonstrate significant advances in all six research areas. The major conclusions are that statically-adaptive variable-resolution modeling is currently becoming mature in the climate sciences, and that AMR holds outstanding promise for future-generation weather and climate models on high-performance computing architectures.« less

Economics of oversized cyclones in the cotton ginning industry

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cost of reducing pollution to meet increasingly stringent air quality standards particularly for the U.S. cotton ginning industry is rising overtime. Most industry participants use cyclones to control air pollutants. These cyclones have no moving parts and their initial investment costs are relative...

Risk factors for mortality in the Bangladesh cyclone of 1991.

PubMed

Bern, C; Sniezek, J; Mathbor, G M; Siddiqi, M S; Ronsmans, C; Chowdhury, A M; Choudhury, A E; Islam, K; Bennish, M; Noji, E

1993-01-01

Cyclones continue to pose a dangerous threat to the coastal populations of Bangladesh, despite improvements in disaster control procedures. After 138,000 persons died in the April 1991 cyclone, we carried out a rapid epidemiological assessment to determine factors associated with cyclone-related mortality and to identify prevention strategies. A nonrandom survey of 45 housing clusters comprising 1123 persons showed that mortality was greatest among under-10-year-olds (26%) and women older than 40 years (31%). Nearly 22% of persons who did not reach a concrete or brick structure died, whereas all persons who sought refuge in such structures survived. Future cyclone-associated mortality in Bangladesh could be prevented by more effective warnings leading to an earlier response, better access to designated cyclone shelters, and improved preparedness in high-risk communities. In particular, deaths among women and under-10-year-olds could be reduced by ensuring that they are given special attention by families, neighbours, local authorities, and especially those in charge of early warnings and emergency evacuation.

The impact of Cyclone Nargis on the Ayeyarwady (Irrawaddy) River delta shoreline and nearshore zone (Myanmar): Towards degraded delta resilience?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Besset, Manon; Anthony, Edward J.; Dussouillez, Philippe; Goichot, Marc

2017-10-01

The Ayeyarwady River delta (Myanmar) is exposed to tropical cyclones, of which the most devastating has been cyclone Nargis (2-4 May 2008). We analysed waves, flooded area, nearshore suspended sediments, and shoreline change from satellite images. Suspended sediment concentrations up to 40% above average during the cyclone may reflect fluvial mud supply following heavy rainfall and wave reworking of shoreface mud. Massive recession of the high-water line resulted from backshore flooding by cyclone surge. The shoreline showed a mean retreat of 47 m following Nargis. Erosion was stronger afterwards (-148 m between August 2008 and April 2010), largely exceeding rates prior to Nargis (2000-2005: -2.14 m/year) and over 41 years (1974-2015: -0.62 m/year). This implies that resilience was weak following cyclone impact. Consequently, the increasingly more populous Ayeyarwady delta, rendered more and more vulnerable by decreasing fluvial sediment supply, could, potentially, become more severely impacted by future high-energy events.

Citizen scientists analyzing tropical cyclone intensities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennon, Christopher C.

2012-10-01

A new crowd sourcing project called CycloneCenter enables the public to analyze historical global tropical cyclone (TC) intensities. The primary goal of CycloneCenter, which launched in mid-September, is to resolve discrepancies in the recent global TC record arising principally from inconsistent development of tropical cyclone intensity data. The historical TC record is composed of data sets called "best tracks," which contain a forecast agency's best assessment of TC tracks and intensities. Best track data have improved in quality since the beginning of the geostationary satellite era in the 1960s (because TCs could no longer disappear from sight). However, a global compilation of best track data (International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)) has brought to light large interagency differences between some TC best track intensities, even in the recent past [Knapp et al., 2010Knapp et al., 2010]. For example, maximum wind speed estimates for Tropical Cyclone Gay (1989) differed by as much as 70 knots as it was tracked by three different agencies.

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-09-01

Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979-2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blockinglike’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

Cyclone shelters and their locational suitability: an empirical analysis from coastal Bangladesh.

PubMed

Mallick, Bishawjit

2014-07-01

Bangladesh is one of the poorest and the most disaster-prone countries in Asia; it is important, therefore, to know how its disaster reduction strategies are organised and planned. Cyclone shelters comprise a widely acceptable form of infrastructural support for disaster management in Bangladesh. This paper attempts to analyse empirically their use during cyclones in a sample study area along the southwest coastal belt of the country. It shows how the location of a cyclone shelter can determine the social power structure in coastal Bangladesh. The results reveal that the establishment of cyclone shelters in the studied communities is determined by neither a right-based nor a demand-based planning approach; rather, their creation is dependent on the socio-political affluence of local-level decision-makers. The paper goes on to demonstrate that socially vulnerable households (defined, for example, by income or housing conditions) are afforded disproportionately less access to cyclone shelters as compared to less socially vulnerable households. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Accumulation in coastal West Antarctic ice core records and the role of cyclone activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosking, J. Scott; Fogt, Ryan; Thomas, Elizabeth R.; Moosavi, Vahid; Phillips, Tony; Coggins, Jack; Reusch, David

2017-09-01

Cyclones are an important component of Antarctic climate variability, yet quantifying their impact on the polar environment is challenging. We assess how cyclones which pass through the Bellingshausen Sea affect accumulation over Ellsworth Land, West Antarctica, where we have two ice core records. We use self-organizing maps (SOMs), an unsupervised machine learning technique, to group cyclones into nine SOM nodes differing by their trajectories (1980-2015). The annual frequency of cyclones associated with the first SOM node (SOM1, which generally originate from lower latitudes over the South Pacific Ocean) is significantly (p < 0.001) correlated with annual accumulation, with the highest seasonal correlations (p < 0.001) found during autumn. While significant (p < 0.01) increases in vertically integrated water vapor over the South Pacific Ocean coincide with this same group of cyclones, we find no indication that this has led to an increase in moisture advection into, nor accumulation over, Ellsworth Land over this short time period.

Potential of Future Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Ocean Surface Wind Observations for Determining Tropical Storm Vortex Intensity and Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, Robert; Bailey, M. C.; Black, Peter; James, Mark; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Miller, Timothy; Ruf, Christopher; Uhlhorn, Eric

2008-01-01

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative technology development, which offers the potential of new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation from either UAS or satellite platforms. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a proven aircraft remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates, including those of major hurricane intensity. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer technology. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. HIRAD incorporates a unique, technologically advanced array antenna and several other technologies successfully demonstrated by the NASA's Instrument Incubator Program. A brassboard version of the instrument is complete and has been successfully tested in an anechoic chamber, and development of the aircraft instrument is well underway. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce wide-swath imagery of ocean vector winds and rain during hurricane conditions when existing microwave sensors (radiometers or scatterometers) are hindered. Preliminary studies show that HIRAD will have a significant positive impact on analyses as either a new aircraft or satellite sensor.

Analysis of Storm Surge in Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, W. H.

2017-12-01

A storm surge is a type of coastal flood that is caused by low-pressure systems such as tropical cyclones. Storm surges caused by tropical cyclones can be very powerful and damaging, as they can flood coastal areas, and even destroy infrastructure in serious cases. Some serious cases of storm surges leading to more than thousands of deaths include Hurricane Katrina (2005) in New Orleans and Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippines. Hong Kong is a coastal city that is prone to tropical cyclones, having an average of 5-6 tropical cyclones entering 500km range of Hong Kong per year. Storm surges have seriously damaged Hong Kong in the past, causing more than 100 deaths by Typhoon Wanda (1962), and leading to serious damage to Tai O and Cheung Chau by Typhoon Hagupit (2008). To prevent economic damage and casualties from storm surges, accurately predicting the height of storm surges and giving timely warnings to citizens is very important. In this project, I will be analyzing how different factors affect the height of storm surge, mainly using data from Hong Kong. These factors include the windspeed in Hong Kong, the atmospheric pressure in Hong Kong, the moon phase, the wind direction, the intensity of the tropical cyclone, distance between the tropical cyclone and Hong Kong, the direction of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, the speed of movement of the tropical cyclone and more. My findings will also be compared with cases from other places, to see if my findings also apply for other places.

Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550-1,500 years.

PubMed

Haig, Jordahna; Nott, Jonathan; Reichart, Gert-Jan

2014-01-30

The assessment of changes in tropical cyclone activity within the context of anthropogenically influenced climate change has been limited by the short temporal resolution of the instrumental tropical cyclone record (less than 50 years). Furthermore, controversy exists regarding the robustness of the observational record, especially before 1990. Here we show, on the basis of a new tropical cyclone activity index (CAI), that the present low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia are unprecedented over the past 550 to 1,500 years. The CAI allows for a direct comparison between the modern instrumental record and long-term palaeotempest (prehistoric tropical cyclone) records derived from the (18)O/(16)O ratio of seasonally accreting carbonate layers of actively growing stalagmites. Our results reveal a repeated multicentennial cycle of tropical cyclone activity, the most recent of which commenced around AD 1700. The present cycle includes a sharp decrease in activity after 1960 in Western Australia. This is in contrast to the increasing frequency and destructiveness of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones since 1970 in the Atlantic Ocean and the western North Pacific Ocean. Other studies project a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones towards the end of the twenty-first century in the southwest Pacific, southern Indian and Australian regions. Our results, although based on a limited record, suggest that this may be occurring much earlier than expected.

Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols.

PubMed

Evan, Amato T; Kossin, James P; Chung, Chul Eddy; Ramanathan, V

2011-11-02

Throughout the year, average sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea are warm enough to support the development of tropical cyclones, but the atmospheric monsoon circulation and associated strong vertical wind shear limits cyclone development and intensification, only permitting a pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period for cyclogenesis. Thus a recent increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean is thought to be related to the weakening of the climatological vertical wind shear. At the same time, anthropogenic emissions of aerosols have increased sixfold since the 1930s, leading to a weakening of the southwesterly lower-level and easterly upper-level winds that define the monsoonal circulation over the Arabian Sea. In principle, this aerosol-driven circulation modification could affect tropical cyclone intensity over the Arabian Sea, but so far no such linkage has been shown. Here we report an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclones during the period 1979-2010, and show that this change in storm strength is a consequence of a simultaneous upward trend in anthropogenic black carbon and sulphate emissions. We use a combination of observational, reanalysis and model data to demonstrate that the anomalous circulation, which is radiatively forced by these anthropogenic aerosols, reduces the basin-wide vertical wind shear, creating an environment more favourable for tropical cyclone intensification. Because most Arabian Sea tropical cyclones make landfall, our results suggest an additional impact on human health from regional air pollution.

The impact of environmental inertial stability on the secondary circulation of axisymmetric tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, M. E.; Chavas, D. R.

2017-12-01

In f-plane numerical simulations and analytical theory, tropical cyclones completely recycle their exhausted outflow air back into the boundary layer. This low-angular momentum air must experience cyclonic torque at the sea surface for cyclone to reach equilibrium. On Earth, however, it is not clear that tropical cyclones recycle all of the outflow air in a closed secondary circulation, and strong asymmetric outflow-jet interactions suggest that much of the air may be permanently evacuated from the storm over its lifetime. The fraction of outflow air that is returned to the near-storm boundary layer is in part a function of the environmental inertial stability, which controls the size and strength of the upper anticyclone. We run a suite of idealized axisymmetric tropical cyclone simulations at constant latitude while varying the outer domain's inertial stability profile. Fixing the latitude allows the gradient wind balance of the storm core to remain constant except for changes due to the far environment. By varying both the outer inertial stability and its location with respect to the Rossby radius of deformation, we show how the tropical cyclone's area-of-influence is controlled by the nature and strength of the upper anticyclone. Parcel tracking additionally demonstrates the likelihood of outflow air parcels to be quickly re-consumed by the secondary circulation as a function of inertial stability. These experiments demonstrate the sensitivity of the tropical cyclone's secondary circulation, typically assumed to be closed, to the dynamics of the far environment.

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2011 Hurricane Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2011-01-01

Estimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.

Advanced aircraft for atmospheric research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, P.; Wegener, S.; Langford, J.; Anderson, J.; Lux, D.; Hall, D. W.

1991-01-01

The development of aircraft for high-altitude research is described in terms of program objectives and environmental, technological limitations, and the work on the Perseus A aircraft. The need for these advanced aircraft is proposed in relation to atmospheric science issues such as greenhouse trapping, the dynamics of tropical cyclones, and stratospheric ozone. The implications of the study on aircraft design requirements is addressed with attention given to the basic categories of high-altitude, long-range, long-duration, and nap-of-the-earth aircraft. A strategy is delineated for a platform that permits unique stratospheric measurements and is a step toward a more advanced aircraft. The goal of Perseus A is to carry scientific air sampling payloads weighing at least 50 kg to altitudes of more than 25 km. The airfoils are designed for low Reynolds numbers, the structural weight is very low, and the closed-cycle power plant runs on liquid oxygen.

NOAA releases final report of Sandy service assessment

Science.gov Websites

released a report on the National Weather Service's performance during hurricane/post tropical cyclone Sandy. The report, Hurricane/Post Tropical Cyclone Sandy Service Assessment, reaffirms that the National warnings for dangerous storms like Sandy, even when they are expected to become post-tropical cyclones by

Novel cyclone empirical pressure drop and emissions with heterogeneous particulate

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

New cyclone designs equally effective at controlling emissions that have smaller pressure losses would reduce both the financial and the environmental cost of procuring electricity. Tests were conducted with novel and industry standard 30.5 cm diameter cyclones at inlet velocities from 8 to 18 m s-...

16 CFR Figure 2 to Subpart A of... - Cyclone Receiver Weldment

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Cyclone Receiver Weldment 2 Figure 2 to Subpart A of Part 1209 Commercial Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY ACT... to Subpart A of Part 1209—Cyclone Receiver Weldment EC03OC91.032 ...

16 CFR Figure 2 to Subpart A of... - Cyclone Receiver Weldment

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Cyclone Receiver Weldment 2 Figure 2 to Subpart A of Part 1209 Commercial Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY ACT... to Subpart A of Part 1209—Cyclone Receiver Weldment EC03OC91.032 ...

Evaluation of the Utility of Static and Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Idealized Tropical Cyclone Problems in a Spectral Element Shallow Water Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-09

where u is the zonal momentum per unit mass, v is the meridional momentum per unit mass, h is the fluid depth, and f is the Coriolis parameter. An...from each cyclone advects the other116 creating a net cyclonic motion (the Fujiwhara effect ; Fujiwhara 1921) (case 2 idealization).117 In Fig. 2c, the...the interaction of the two136 vortices cause a net cyclonic motion (the Fujiwhara effect ).137 The initial condition for the binary vortex interaction

Cyclone Chris Hits Australia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

This false-color image shows Cyclone Chris shortly after it hit Australia's northwestern coast on February 6, 2002. This scene was acquired by the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flying aboard NASA's Terra satellite. (Please note that this scene has not been reprojected.) Cyclone Chris is one of the most powerful storms ever to hit Australia. Initially, the storm contained wind gusts of up to 200 km per hour (125 mph), but shortly after making landfall it weakened to a Category 4 storm. Meteorologists expect the cyclone to weaken quickly as it moves further inland.

Compact cyclone filter train for radiological and hazardous environments

DOEpatents

Bench, Thomas R.

1998-01-01

A compact cyclone filter train for the removal of hazardous and radiologi particles from a gaseous fluid medium which permits a small cyclone separator to be used in a very small space envelope due to the arrangement of the filter housing adjacent to the separator with the cyclone separator and the filters mounted on a plate. The entire unit will have a hoist connection at the center of gravity so that the entire unit including the separator, the filters, and the base can be lifted and repositioned as desired.

A preliminary computer pattern analysis of satellite images of mature extratropical cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burfeind, Craig R.; Weinman, James A.; Barkstrom, Bruce R.

1987-01-01

This study has applied computerized pattern analysis techniques to the location and classification of features of several mature extratropical cyclones that were depicted in GOES satellite images. These features include the location of the center of the cyclone vortex core and the location of the associated occluded front. The cyclone type was classified in accord with the scheme of Troup and Streten. The present analysis was implemented on a personal computer; results were obtained within approximately one or two minutes without the intervention of an analyst.

Coal reburning for cyclone boiler NO{sub x} control demonstration. Quarterly report No. 6, July--September, 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-12-31

It is the objective of the Coal Reburning for Cyclone Boiler NO{sub x} Control Project to fully establish that the cola reburning clean coal technology offers cost-effective alternatives to cyclone operating electric utilities for overall oxides of nitrogen control. The project will evaluate the applicability of the reburning technology for reducing NO{sub x} emissions in full scale cyclone-fired boilers which use coal as a primary fuel. The performance goals while burning coal are: (1) Greater than 50 percent reduction in NO{sub x} emissions, as referenced to the uncontrolled (baseline) conditions at full load. (2) No serious impact on cyclone combustormore » operation, boiler efficiency or boiler fireside performance (corrosion and deposition), or boiler ash removal system performance.« less

Coal reburning for cyclone boiler NO sub x control demonstration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-01-01

It is the objective of the Coal Reburning for Cyclone Boiler NO{sub x} Control Project to fully establish that the cola reburning clean coal technology offers cost-effective alternatives to cyclone operating electric utilities for overall oxides of nitrogen control. The project will evaluate the applicability of the reburning technology for reducing NO{sub x} emissions in full scale cyclone-fired boilers which use coal as a primary fuel. The performance goals while burning coal are: (1) Greater than 50 percent reduction in NO{sub x} emissions, as referenced to the uncontrolled (baseline) conditions at full load. (2) No serious impact on cyclone combustormore » operation, boiler efficiency or boiler fireside performance (corrosion and deposition), or boiler ash removal system performance.« less

The persistent signature of tropical cyclones in ambient seismic noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gualtieri, Lucia; Camargo, Suzana J.; Pascale, Salvatore; Pons, Flavio M. E.; Ekström, Göran

2018-02-01

The spectrum of ambient seismic noise shows strong signals associated with tropical cyclones, yet a detailed understanding of these signals and the relationship between them and the storms is currently lacking. Through the analysis of more than a decade of seismic data recorded at several stations located in and adjacent to the northwest Pacific Ocean, here we show that there is a persistent and frequency-dependent signature of tropical cyclones in ambient seismic noise that depends on characteristics of the storm and on the detailed location of the station relative to the storm. An adaptive statistical model shows that the spectral amplitude of ambient seismic noise, and notably of the short-period secondary microseisms, has a strong relationship with tropical cyclone intensity and can be employed to extract information on the tropical cyclones.

Public understanding of cyclone warning in India: Can wind be predicted?

PubMed

Dash, Biswanath

2015-11-01

In spite of meteorological warning, many human lives are lost every year to cyclone mainly because vulnerable populations were not evacuated on time to a safe shelter as per recommendation. It raises several questions, most prominently what explains people's behaviour in the face of such danger from a cyclonic storm? How do people view meteorological advisories issued for cyclone and what role they play in defining the threat? What shapes public response during such situation? This article based on an ethnographic study carried out in coastal state of Odisha, India, argues that local public recognising inherent limitations of meteorological warning, fall back on their own system of observation and forecasting. Not only are the contents of cyclone warning understood, its limitations are accommodated and explained. © The Author(s) 2014.

The kinetic and available potential energy budget of a winter extratropical cyclone system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, P. J.; Dare, P. M.

1986-01-01

The energy budget of an extratropical cyclone system which traversed North America and intensified through the period January 9-11, 1975 is presented. The objectives of the study are: (1) to document the complete energy budget of a significant winter cyclone event, and (2) to comment on the significance of latent heat release (LHR) in the cyclone's evolution. Results reveal an overall increase in both kinetic (K) and available potential energy (A). K increases are accounted for by boundary flux convergence of K, while A increases are due to generation by LHR and K to A conversion. In addition, the general A increase is accompanied by a 24 h oscillation that is explained largely by the flux quantity in the A budget equation and is correlated with a similar fluctuation in the K to A conversion. LHR does not appear to be critical in the development of this cyclone system. Rather, LHR acts to increase the intensity of the event. It is hypothesized that the direct influence that LHR had on the deepening cyclone's reduced mass was augmented by an indirect influence, in which pre-existing dry dynamical forcing was enhanced by diabatic heating, thus leading to accelerated cyclone development at a later time.

Interactions between tropical cyclones and mid-latitude systems in the Northeastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lugo, A.; Abarca, S. F.; Raga, G. B.; Vargas, D. C.

2014-12-01

Major challenges in tropical meteorology include the short-term forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, which is defined as the maximum tangential wind. Several efforts have been made in order to reach this goal over the last decade: Among these efforts, the study of lightning in the TC inner core (the region inside a disc of 100 km radius from the center) as a proxy to deep convection, has the potential to be used as a predictor to forecast intensity (DeMaria et al, 2012, Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1828-1842).While most studies focus their objectives in studying the lightning flash density in the inner core, we study the probability of flash occurrence for intensifying and weakening cyclones. We have analyzed the trajectories of the observed 62 tropical cyclones that developed in the basin from 2006 to 2009, and classified them into separate clusters according to their trajectories. These clusters can broadly be described as having trajectories mostly oriented: East-West, towards the central Pacific, NW far from the Mexican coast, parallel to the Mexican coast and recurving towards the Mexican coast.We estimate that probability of inner core lightning occurrence increases as cyclones intensify but the probability rapidly decrease as the systems weaken. This is valid for cyclones in most of the clusters. However, the cyclones that exhibit trajectories that recurve towards the Mexican coast, do not present the same relationship between intensity and inner-core lightning probability, these cyclones show little or no decrease in the lightning occurrence probability as they weaken.We hypothesize that one of the reasons for this anomalous behavior is likely the fact that these cyclones interact with mid-latitude systems. Mid-latitude systems are important in determining the recurving trajectory but they may also influence the TC by advecting mid-level moisture towards the TC inner core. This additional supply of moisture as the system is approaching land may enhance deep convection in the inner core and result in increases of lightning probability even though the cyclones are weakening. We use a Lagrangian approach similar to the used by Rutherford and Montgomery (2012, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11355-11381, 2012), to study moisture fluxes between intensifying and weakening in recurving tropical cyclones.

Coarse, Intermediate and High Resolution Numerical Simulations of the Transition of a Tropical Wave Critical Layer to a Tropical Storm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montgomery, M. T.; Dunkerton, T. J.; Wang, Z.

2010-01-01

Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from within the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i) a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii) containment of moisture entrained by the developing flow and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii) confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv) a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v) maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the developing proto-vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. This genesis sequence and the overarching framework for describing how such hybrid wave-vortex structures become tropical depressions/storms is likened to the development of a marsupial infant in its mother's pouch, and for this reason has been dubbed the "marsupial paradigm". Here we conduct the first multi-scale test of the marsupial paradigm in an idealized setting by revisiting the Kurihara and Tuleya problem examining the transformation of an easterly wave-like disturbance into a tropical storm vortex using the WRF model. An analysis of the evolving winds, equivalent potential temperature, and relative vertical vorticity is presented from coarse (28 km), intermediate (9 km) and high resolution (3.1 km) simulations. The results are found to support key elements of the marsupial paradigm by demonstrating the existence of rotationally dominant region with minimal strain/shear deformation near the center of the critical layer pouch that contains strong cyclonic vorticity and high saturation fraction. This localized region within the pouch serves as the "attractor" for an upscale "bottom up" development process while the wave pouch and proto-vortex move together.

Sensitivity of physical parameterizations on prediction of tropical cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal using WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, P. V. S.; Potty, Jayaraman; Mohanty, U. C.

2011-09-01

Comprehensive sensitivity analyses on physical parameterization schemes of Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW core) model have been carried out for the prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones by taking the example of cyclone Nargis, which formed over the Bay of Bengal and hit Myanmar on 02 May 2008, causing widespread damages in terms of human and economic losses. The model performances are also evaluated with different initial conditions of 12 h intervals starting from the cyclogenesis to the near landfall time. The initial and boundary conditions for all the model simulations are drawn from the global operational analysis and forecast products of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-GFS) available for the public at 1° lon/lat resolution. The results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that a combination of non-local parabolic type exchange coefficient PBL scheme of Yonsei University (YSU), deep and shallow convection scheme with mass flux approach for cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch), and NCEP operational cloud microphysics scheme with diagnostic mixed phase processes (Ferrier), predicts better track and intensity as compared against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimates. Further, the final choice of the physical parameterization schemes selected from the above sensitivity experiments is used for model integration with different initial conditions. The results reveal that the cyclone track, intensity and time of landfall are well simulated by the model with an average intensity error of about 8 hPa, maximum wind error of 12 m s-1and track error of 77 km. The simulations also show that the landfall time error and intensity error are decreasing with delayed initial condition, suggesting that the model forecast is more dependable when the cyclone approaches the coast. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are also well simulated by the model and comparable with the TRMM estimates.

Improving Prediction of Large-scale Regime Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyakum, J. R.; Roebber, P.; Bosart, L. F.; Honor, A.; Bunker, E.; Low, Y.; Hart, J.; Bliankinshtein, N.; Kolly, A.; Atallah, E.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

Cool season atmospheric predictability over the CONUS on subseasonal times scales (1-4 weeks) is critically dependent upon the structure, configuration, and evolution of the North Pacific jet stream (NPJ). The NPJ can be perturbed on its tropical side on synoptic time scales by recurving and transitioning tropical cyclones (TCs) and on subseasonal time scales by longitudinally varying convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Likewise, the NPJ can be perturbed on its poleward side on synoptic time scales by midlatitude and polar disturbances that originate over the Asian continent. These midlatitude and polar disturbances can often trigger downstream Rossby wave propagation across the North Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic. The project team is investigating the following multiscale processes and features: the spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone clustering over the Northern Hemisphere; cyclone clustering as influenced by atmospheric blocking and the phases and amplitudes of the major teleconnection indices, ENSO and the MJO; composite and case study analyses of representative cyclone clustering events to establish the governing dynamics; regime change predictability horizons associated with cyclone clustering events; Arctic air mass generation and modification; life cycles of the MJO; and poleward heat and moisture transports of subtropical air masses. A critical component of the study is weather regime classification. These classifications are defined through: the spatiotemporal clustering of surface cyclogenesis; a general circulation metric combining data at 500-hPa and the dynamic tropopause; Self Organizing Maps (SOM), constructed from dynamic tropopause and 850 hPa equivalent potential temperature data. The resultant lattice of nodes is used to categorize synoptic classes and their predictability, as well as to determine the robustness of the CFSv2 model climate relative to observations. Transition pathways between these synoptic classes, both in the observations and the CFSv2, are investigated. At a future point in the project, the results from these multiscale investigations will be integrated in the form of a prediction tool for important variables (temperatures, precipitation and their extremes) for the 1-4 week timeframe.

Comparison of Mid-latitude Cyclones in Sea Level Pressure, Gepotential Height and Vorticity Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raible, Christoph C.; Blender, Richard; Fraedrich, Klaus

2013-04-01

The mid-latitudes are dominated by diurnal variability, which is related to traveling high- and low-pressure systems. The lows or cyclones are a major source of natural hazards. This has led to growing interest in the scientific community to develop Eulerian and Lagrangian measures and to analyze the atmospheric high-frequency variability. One important issue is that there is no straight forward definition of cyclones resulting in a large variety of so-called cyclone detection and tracking methods. Each of these methods relies on different input fields which are related to specific features of a cyclone, e.g., sea level pressure (SLP), which specifically focuses on the mass aspect of the velocity field. Recently, the available methods have been compared with respect to climatology and life cycles using the ERA interim data set (Neu et al. 2013). Based on this study we investigate different fields as input for one specific method. We focus on the three mostly used input data, sea level pressure (SLP), 1000-hPa gepotential height (Z1000) and 850-hPa vorticity (850VOR). The cyclone detection and tracking method developed by Blender et al. (1997) is used and we apply it to ERA interim data in the 1.5 x 1.5 resolution. The method was mainly applied for Z1000 and the Northern Hemisphere (e.g., Blender et al. 1997; Raible et al. 2008). To compare the tracks and cyclone characteristics obtained from the different input data we need to adapt critical parameters of the method in such a way that comparable numbers of cyclone centers are identified in either field. The target is set to the number of cyclone centers in northern hemispheric winter. This enables us to assess the seasonal and hemispheric dependence. Preliminary results show that the agreement between cyclones based on SLP and Z1000 varies between roughly 70 to 80% depending on the season and the hemisphere. Spatially, most of the differences are found around orographic features like Greenland. An interesting finding is that the number of cyclones based on Z1000 is increased comparing the winter and summer season as the number of heat lows increases in summer. However, the behavior is vice versa for cyclones based on SLP. References: Blender R., K. Fraedrich, and F. Lunkeit, 1997: Identification of cyclone-track regimes in the North Atlantic. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 727-741. Neu, U., M. G. Akperov, N. Bellenbaum, R. Benestad, R. Blender, R. Caballero, A. Cocozza, H. F. Dacre, Y. Feng, K. Fraedrich, J. Grieger, S. Gulev, J. Hanley, T. Hewson, M. Inatsu, K. Keay, S. F. Kew, I. Kindem, G. C. Leckebusch, M. L. R. Liberato, P. Lionello, I. I. Mokhov, J. G. Pinto, C. C. Raible, M. Reale, I. Rudeva, M. Schuster, I. Simmonds, M. Sinclair, M. Sprenger, N. D. Tilinina, I. F. Trigo, S. Ulbrich, U. Ulbrich, X. L. Wang, H. Wernli, 2012: IMILAST - a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press. Raible, C. C., P. Della-Marta, C. Schwierz, H. Wernli, and R. Blender, 2008: Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones: A comparison of detection and tracking methods and different reanalyses, Mon. Wea. Rev., 136 880-897.

Role of equatorial waves in tropical cyclogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreck, Carl J., III

Tropical cyclones typically form within preexisting wavelike disturbances that couple with convection. Using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multisatellite rainfall estimates, this study determines the relative number of tropical cyclones that can be attributed to various wave types, including the Madden--Julian oscillation (MJO), Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby (ER) waves, mixed Rossby--gravity (MRG) waves, and tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances. Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave's convection when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. More storms are attributed to TD-type disturbances than to any other wave type in all of the Northern Hemisphere basins. In the Southern Hemisphere, however, ER waves and TD-type disturbances are equally important as precursors. Fewer storms are attributed to MRG waves, Kelvin waves, and the MJO in every basin. Although relatively few storms are attributed to the MJO, tropical cyclogenesis is 2.6 times more likely in its convective phase compared with its suppressed phase. This modulation arises in part because each equatorial wave type is amplified within MJO's convective phase. The amplification significantly increases the probability that these waves will act as tropical cyclone precursors. A case study from June 2002 illustrates the effects of a series of Kelvin waves on two tropical cyclone formations. These waves were embedded in the convective phase of the MJO. Together, the MJO and the Kelvin waves preconditioned the low-level environment for cyclogenesis. The first Kelvin wave weakened the trade easterlies, while the subsequent waves created monsoon westerlies near the equator. These westerlies provided the background cyclonic vorticity within which both storms developed. The effects of tropical cyclone-related rainfall anomalies are also investigated. In the wavenumber--frequency spectrum for rainfall, tropical cyclones can inflate the power for shorter wavelength westward propagating waves by up to 27%. This spectrum contains signals from all longitudes, but the greatest contamination occurs in regions like the Philippines where tropical cyclones are most frequent. Here, tropical cyclones contribute more than 40% of the rainfall variance in each filter band. To mitigate these effects, tropical cyclone-related anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.

Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and extreme sea levels in the South Pacific — A regional assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; McBride, John L.

2012-01-01

This paper reviews the current understanding of the effect of climate change on extreme sea levels in the South Pacific region. This region contains many locations that are vulnerable to extreme sea levels in the current climate, and projections indicate that this vulnerability will increase in the future. The recent publication of authoritative statements on the relationship between global warming and global sea level rise, tropical cyclones and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon has motivated this review. Confident predictions of global mean sea level rise are modified by regional differences in the steric (density-related) component of sea level rise and changing gravitational interactions between the ocean and the ice sheets which affect the regional distribution of the eustatic (mass-related) contribution to sea level rise. The most extreme sea levels in this region are generated by tropical cyclones. The intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones is likely to increase, but many climate models project a substantial decrease in tropical cyclone numbers in this region, which may lead to an overall decrease in the total number of intense tropical cyclones. This projection, however, needs to be better quantified using improved high-resolution climate model simulations of tropical cyclones. Future changes in ENSO may lead to large regional variations in tropical cyclone incidence and sea level rise, but these impacts are also not well constrained. While storm surges from tropical cyclones give the largest sea level extremes in the parts of this region where they occur, other more frequent high sea level events can arise from swell generated by distant storms. Changes in wave climate are projected for the tropical Pacific due to anthropogenically-forced changes in atmospheric circulation. Future changes in sea level extremes will be caused by a combination of changes in mean sea level, regional sea level trends, tropical cyclone incidence and wave climate. Recommendations are given for research to increase understanding of the response of these factors to climate change. Implications of the results for adaptation research are also discussed.

Stable Isotope Anatomy of Tropical Cyclone Ita, North-Eastern Australia, April 2014

PubMed Central

Munksgaard, Niels C.; Zwart, Costijn; Kurita, Naoyuki; Bass, Adrian; Nott, Jon; Bird, Michael I.

2015-01-01

The isotope signatures registered in speleothems during tropical cyclones (TC) provides information about the frequency and intensity of past TCs but the precise relationship between isotopic composition and the meteorology of TCs remain uncertain. Here we present continuous δ18O and δ2H data in rainfall and water vapour, as well as in discrete rainfall samples, during the passage of TC Ita and relate the evolution in isotopic compositions to local and synoptic scale meteorological observations. High-resolution data revealed a close relationship between isotopic compositions and cyclonic features such as spiral rainbands, periods of stratiform rainfall and the arrival of subtropical and tropical air masses with changing oceanic and continental moisture sources. The isotopic compositions in discrete rainfall samples were remarkably constant along the ~450 km overland path of the cyclone when taking into account the direction and distance to the eye of the cyclone at each sampling time. Near simultaneous variations in δ18O and δ2H values in rainfall and vapour and a near-equilibrium rainfall-vapour isotope fractionation indicates strong isotopic exchange between rainfall and surface inflow of vapour during the approach of the cyclone. In contrast, after the passage of spiral rainbands close to the eye of the cyclone, different moisture sources for rainfall and vapour are reflected in diverging d-excess values. High-resolution isotope studies of modern TCs refine the interpretation of stable isotope signatures found in speleothems and other paleo archives and should aim to further investigate the influence of cyclone intensity and longevity on the isotopic composition of associated rainfall. PMID:25742628

Borneo vortex and mesoscale convective rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koseki, S.; Koh, T.-Y.; Teo, C.-K.

2014-05-01

We have investigated how the Borneo vortex develops over the equatorial South China Sea under cold surge conditions in December during the Asian winter monsoon. Composite analysis using reanalysis and satellite data sets has revealed that absolute vorticity and water vapour are transported by strong cold surges from upstream of the South China Sea to around the Equator. Rainfall is correspondingly enhanced over the equatorial South China Sea. A semi-idealized experiment reproduced the Borneo vortex over the equatorial South China Sea during a "perpetual" cold surge. The Borneo vortex is manifested as a meso-α cyclone with a comma-shaped rainband in the northeast sector of the cyclone. Vorticity budget analysis showed that the growth/maintenance of the meso-α cyclone was achieved mainly by the vortex stretching. This vortex stretching is due to the upward motion forced by the latent heat release around the cyclone centre. The comma-shaped rainband consists of clusters of meso-β-scale rainfall cells. The intense rainfall in the comma head (comma tail) is generated by the confluence of the warmer and wetter cyclonic easterly flow (cyclonic southeasterly flow) and the cooler and drier northeasterly surge in the northwestern (northeastern) sector of the cyclone. Intense upward motion and heavy rainfall resulted due to the low-level convergence and the favourable thermodynamic profile at the confluence zone. In particular, the convergence in the northwestern sector is responsible for maintenance of the meso-α cyclone system. At both meso-α and meso-β scales, the convergence is ultimately caused by the deviatoric strain in the confluence wind pattern but is significantly self-enhanced by the nonlinear dynamics.

Attributing Tropical Cyclogenesis to Equatorial Waves in the Western North Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schreck, Carl J., III; Molinari, John; Mohr, Karen I.

2009-01-01

The direct influences of equatorial waves on the genesis of tropical cyclones are evaluated. Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. For an attribution threshold of 3 mm/day, 51% of warm season western North Pacific tropical cyclones are attributed to tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances, 29% to equatorial Rossby waves, 26% to mixed Rossby-Gravity waves, 23% to Kelvin waves, 13% to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and 19% are not attributed to any equatorial wave. The fraction of tropical cyclones attributed to TD-type disturbances is consistent with previous findings. Past studies have also demonstrated that the MJO significantly modulates tropical cyclogenesis, but fewer storms are attributed to the MJO than any other wave type. This disparity arises from the difference between attribution and modulation. The MJO produces broad regions of favorable conditions for cyclogenesis, but the MJO alone might not determine when and where a storm will develop within these regions. Tropical cyclones contribute less than 17% of the power in any portion of the equatorial wave spectrum because tropical cyclones are relatively uncommon equatorward of 15deg latitude. In regions where they are active, however, tropical cyclones can contribute more than 20% of the warm season rainfall and up to 50% of the total variance. Tropical cyclone-related anomalies can significantly contaminate wave-filtered precipitation at the location of genesis. To mitigate this effect, the tropical cyclone-related rainfall anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.

Products and Services Notice - Naval Oceanography Portal

Science.gov Websites

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, Northwest Pacific Ocean Issued as required when tropical cyclone PGTW Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, North Indian Ocean Issued as required when TC formation is , Southwest Pacific Ocean Issued as required when TC formation is expected in 12-24 hours WTPS31-35 PGTW

Improved design of a tangential entry cyclone separator for separation of particles from exhaust gas of diesel engine.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, N

2011-01-01

An effective design of cyclone separator with tangential inlet is developed applying an equation derived from the correlation of collection efficiency with maximum pressure drop components of the cyclone, which can efficiently remove the particles around 1microm of the exhaust gas of diesel engine.

Toward Clarity on Understanding Tropical Cyclone Intensification

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

forefront of tropical cyclone research for a number of years , espe- cially in the context of the rapid intensification or decay of storms. Rapid...67, 1817 – 1830, doi:10.1175/2010JAS3318.1. Vigh, J. L., and W. H. Schubert, 2009: Rapid development of the tropical cyclone warm core. J. Atmos

Global climatology of explosive cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2013-03-01

Explosive cyclones, which have rapidly intensifying winds and heavy rain, can seriously threaten life and property. These "meteorological bombs" are difficult to forecast, in part because scientists need a better understanding of the physical mechanisms by which they form. In particular, the large-scale circulation conditions that may contribute to explosive cyclone formation are not well understood.

The Structural Changes of Tropical Cyclones Upon Interaction with Vertical Wind Shear

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ritchie, Elizabeth A.

2003-01-01

The Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4) provided a unique opportunity to observe the distributions and document the roles of important atmospheric factors that impact the development of the core asymmetries and core structural changes of tropical cyclones embedded in vertical wind shear. The state-of-the-art instruments flown on the NASA DC-8 and ER-2, in addition to those on the NOAA aircraft, provided a unique set of observations that documented the core structure throughout the depth of the tropical cyclone. These data have been used to conduct a combined observational and modeling study using a state-of-the-art, high- resolution mesoscale model to examine the role of the environmental vertical wind shear in producing tropical cyclone core asymmetries, and the effects on the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones.The scientific objectives of this study were to obtain in situ measurements that would allow documentation of the physical mechanisms that influence the development of the asymmetric convection and its effect on the core structure of the tropical cyclone.

Characteristics and development of European cyclones with tropical origin in reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dekker, Mark M.; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Vries, Hylke de; Baatsen, Michiel; Delden, Aarnout J. van

2018-01-01

Major storm systems over Europe frequently have a tropical origin. This paper analyses the characteristics and dynamics of such cyclones in the observational record, using MERRA reanalysis data for the period 1979-2013. By stratifying the cyclones along three key phases of their development (tropical phase, extratropical transition and final re-intensification), we identify four radically different life cycles: the tropical cyclone and extratropical cyclone life cycles, the classic extratropical transition and the warm seclusion life cycle. More than 50% of the storms reaching Europe from low latitudes follow the warm seclusion life cycle. It also contains the strongest cyclones. They are characterized by a warm core and a frontal T-bone structure, with a northwestward warm conveyor belt and the effects of dry intrusion. Rapid deepening occurs in the latest phase, around their arrival in Europe. Both baroclinic instability and release of latent heat contribute to the strong intensification. The pressure minimum occurs often a day after entering Europe, which enhances the potential threat of warm seclusion storms for Europe. The impact of a future warmer climate on the development of these storms is discussed.

The View from the Top: CALIOP Ice Water Content in the Uppermost Layer of Tropical Cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avery, Melody A.; Deng, Min; Garnier, Anne; Heymsfield, Andrew; Pelon, Jacques; Powell, Kathleen A.; Trepte, Charles R.; Vaughan, Mark A.; Winker, David M.; Young, Stuart

2012-01-01

NASA's CALIPSO satellite carries both the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and the Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR). The lidar is ideally suited to viewing the very top of tropical cyclones, and the IIR provides critical optical and microphysical information. The lidar and the IIR data work together to understand storm clouds since they are perfectly co-located, and big tropical cyclones provide an excellent complex target for comparing the observations. There is a lot of information from these case studies for understanding both the observations and the tropical cyclones, and we are just beginning to scratch the surface of what can be learned. Many tropical cyclone cloud particle measurements are focused on the middle and lower regions of storms, but characterization of cyclone interaction with the lowermost stratosphere at the upper storm boundary may be important for determining the total momentum and moisture transport budget, and perhaps for predicting storm intensity as well. A surprising amount of cloud ice is to be found at the very top of these big storms.

Cyclone-induced rapid creation of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhaomin; Turner, John; Sun, Bo; Li, Bingrui; Liu, Chengyan

2014-01-01

Two polar vessels, Akademik Shokalskiy and Xuelong, were trapped by thick sea ice in the Antarctic coastal region just to the west of 144°E and between 66.5°S and 67°S in late December 2013. This event demonstrated the rapid establishment of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions on synoptic time scales. The event was associated with cyclones that developed at lower latitudes. Near the event site, cyclone-enhanced strong southeasterly katabatic winds drove large westward drifts of ice floes. In addition, the cyclones also gave southward ice drift. The arrival and grounding of Iceberg B9B in Commonwealth Bay in March 2011 led to the growth of fast ice around it, forming a northward protruding barrier. This barrier blocked the westward ice drift and hence aided sea ice consolidation on its eastern side. Similar cyclone-induced events have occurred at this site in the past after the grounding of Iceberg B9B. Future events may be predictable on synoptic time scales, if cyclone-induced strong wind events can be predicted. PMID:24937550

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Ita Making Landfall in Queensland, Australia

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-04-11

NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Tropical Cyclone Ita as it began making landfall on the Eastern Cape York Peninsula of Queensland, Australia, today, April 11, 2014. Ita officially made landfall at Cape Flattery about 9:00 p.m. local AEST time as a Category 4 storm according to reports from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer that flies aboard Aqua captured an image of the Category 4 storm on April 11 at 12:00 a.m. EDT (4 a.m. UTC). Satellite imagery indicates the eye is 9.2 miles wide (8 nautical miles, or 14.8 km). Warnings and watches remain in effect as the center of Ita is expected to remain at hurricane strength as it moves in a southerly direction, staying just west of Cairns over the next day. A tropical cyclone warning is in effect between Coen and Innisfail, including Cooktown, Port Douglas, Cairns, extending inland to Kalinga, Palmerville, Mareeba and Chillagoe. A tropical cyclone watch is in effect between Innisfail to Cardwell, extending inland. ABC reported that the strongest maximum sustained winds around the center of circulation were near 142.9 mph (124.2 knots, or 230 kph) and many trees have been downed and homes damaged. According to ABC, preliminary reports suggest that power may be out for a month in some areas. On April 11 at 5 a.m. EDT (9 a.m. UTC), Tropical Cyclone Ita had maximum sustained winds near 143.8 mph (125 knots, or 231.5 kph). It was centered near 14.8 degrees south latitude and 145.3 degrees east longitude, about 168 miles (146 nautical miles, or 288 km) north of Cairns, Australia, and has tracked south-southwestward at 10.3 mph (9 knots, or 16.6 kph). Ita is moving around a subtropical ridge (elongated area) of high pressure and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Ita to start curving to the southeast around that ridge in the next day before heading back out into the Coral Sea. Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team Rob Gutro, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Statistics Observational Data Processing Data Assimilation Monsoon Desk Model Transition Seminars Seminar Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Targeted Obs Targeted Observations Cyclone University Research Court College Park, MD 20740 Page Author: EMC Webmaster Page generated:Sunday, 27-May

A CFD Study on the Prediction of Cyclone Collection Efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimbun, Jolius; Chuah, T. G.; Choong, Thomas S. Y.; Fakhru'L-Razi, A.

2005-09-01

This work presents a Computational Fluid Dynamics calculation to predict and to evaluate the effects of temperature, operating pressure and inlet velocity on the collection efficiency of gas cyclones. The numerical solutions were carried out using spreadsheet and commercial CFD code FLUENT 6.0. This paper also reviews four empirical models for the prediction of cyclone collection efficiency, namely Lapple [1], Koch and Licht [2], Li and Wang [3], and Iozia and Leith [4]. All the predictions proved to be satisfactory when compared with the presented experimental data. The CFD simulations predict the cyclone cut-off size for all operating conditions with a deviation of 3.7% from the experimental data. Specifically, results obtained from the computer modelling exercise have demonstrated that CFD model is the best method of modelling the cyclones collection efficiency.

Strong Extratropical Cyclone Over the US Midwest

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-10-29

NASA image acquired October 26, 2010 The storm that swept across the center of the United States on October 26 and October 27, 2010, was memorable to those who experienced it because of its strong winds, rain, hail, and widespread tornadoes. Meteorologists get excited about the storm because it set a record for the lowest pressure (not associated with a hurricane) measured over land in the continental United States. At 5:13 p.m. CDT, the weather station in Bigfork, Minnesota recorded 955.2 millibars (28.21 inches of pressure). Pressure is one indicator of a storm’s strength, and this measurement corresponds to the pressure seen in a Category 3 hurricane. This image, taken by the GOES satellite on October 26, shows the storm system circling around the area of extreme low pressure. Such extratropical cyclones form over the United States in the spring and fall, when the temperature difference from north to south is large. Warm, high-pressure air rushes toward the cooler, low-pressure air in the north. Because the Earth is rotating, the air moving in ends up circling the area of low pressure, creating the cyclone shown in the image. The intensity of the storm is determined by the pressure difference between the center and the outer edges. Extreme low pressure in the center of the storm, therefore, is an indicator that the storm was very intense. The animation shows the storm developing starting late on October 25 and running through October 27. The cyclone formed very quickly on October 26, taking a distinctive comma shape as the day went on. The storm developed so quickly, in fact, that it is classified as a bomb, an extremely fast developing storm (dropping at least one millibar of pressure per hour for 24 hours), more common over water than land. The storm was also huge. Though the area of low pressure is centered over the Upper Midwest, the storm reached from the Gulf of Mexico into Canada, and from the Rocky Mountains to the Atlantic Ocean. Extratropical cyclones bring an array of unsettled weather, including strong wind, rain, hail, and tornadoes, and this cyclone brought all of that. On October 26–27, winds gusted up to 78 miles per hour in Michigan, with high winds throughout the Midwest. The National Weather Service reported 61 tornadoes over the two days. Heavy snow also fell in the north. NASA Earth Observatory imagery created by Jesse Allen, using imagery provided courtesy of the NASA GOES Project Science Office. Caption by Holli RIebeek. Instrument: GOES Credit: NASA Earth Observatory NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Join us on Facebook

Intermountain Cyclogenesis: a Climatology and Multiscale Case Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tiros Peijiun

1995-11-01

A detailed study of Intermountain cyclones over the western United States is conducted through climatological and case studies. An eleven-year (1976-1986) statistical survey shows that the Nevada cyclogenesis is mainly a springtime (March, April) event while a secondary maximum of cyclogenesis frequency is found in November. Nearly 75% of the Nevada cyclogenesis events (177 out of 237 cases) take place under large-scale westerly to southerly flow aloft across the Sierra Nevada Mountains, while 24% of the events (57 out of 237 cases) occur under northwesterly flow aloft. A composite study of these two types of the flow is shown to demonstrate how differences in large-scale topography affect Intermountain cyclogenesis processes. The result from a case study of 9-11 February 1984 reveals that an antecedent Nevada lee trough formed as a result of large-scale southwesterly flow aloft interacting with the underlying terrain well before the surface and upper-level troughs moved onshore. Subsequent cyclogenesis took place in situ with the axis of the trough as the center of large-scale quasi-geostrophic ascent/positive potential vorticity advection began to spread across the Sierra Nevada Mountains. As the cyclone moved downstream, it was observed to weaken well before reaching the Continental Divide while a new cyclonic development occurred east of the Rocky Mountains. It is shown that the weakening of the Intermountain cyclone was associated with the ongoing interaction between the Intermountain cyclone and large-scale topography and the progressive outrunning of the large-scale dynamical forcing aloft away from the surface cyclone center. An investigation of the large-scale evolution for the 26-29 January 1980 case, which developed beneath the northwesterly flow aloft, further reveals that the underlying topography plays two major roles in contributing to the initial cyclogenesis: (1) to block and to retard cold, stable air east of the Continental Divide from rushing into the Great Basin region, and (2) to produce differential pressure falls across the Sierra Nevada Mountains (more along the eastern slopes) in response to increasing cross -mountain flow. Numerous transient shortwaves in the midtroposphere rapidly move across the GB and the Rocky Mountains into the Plains States, while the Intermountain cyclone moves slower than to the disturbances aloft. There is no downstream lee trough/cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies during the investigation period since the leeside is characterized by cold, stable air. The third case study is made of an 11-14 December 1987 Intermountain cyclogenesis case which took place in an area of relatively warm and less stable environment near the Arizona-New Mexico border beneath northwesterly flow aloft. The ensuing interaction between the large -scale flow and underlying terrain allowed the surface cyclone to remain quasi-stationary for its entire 36 h life span. We also document a cold-season small-scale Catalina eddy development in the coastal southern California waters in this case. The eddy formed as the equatorward and northeasterly flow upstream of the coastal (San Rafael and Saint Ynez) mountains increased in the lower troposphere. Weak large-scale ascent in the mid- and upper-troposphere over the incipient eddy environment provided evidence of the orographic nature of the small -scale cyclone. The eddy was eventually displaced seaward and weakened with the arrival of powerful large-scale subsidence and increasing northeasterly downslope flow at the lower levels that reached the coastal waters.

A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahiduzzaman, Mohammad; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Wotherspoon, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

2017-10-01

Extensive damage and loss of life can be caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall. Modelling of TC landfall probability is beneficial to insurance/re-insurance companies, decision makers, government policy and planning, and residents in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a climatological model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall for North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries based on kernel density estimation, a generalised additive model (GAM) including an Euler integration step, and landfall detection using a country mask approach. Using a 35-year record (1979-2013) of tropical cyclone track observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (part of the International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship Version 6), the GAM is fitted to the observed cyclone track velocities as a smooth function of location in each season. The distribution of cyclone genesis points is approximated by kernel density estimation. The model simulated TCs are randomly selected from the fitted kernel (TC genesis), and the cyclone paths (TC tracks), represented by the GAM together with the application of stochastic innovations at each step, are simulated to generate a suite of NIO rim landfall statistics. Three hindcast validation methods are applied to evaluate the integrity of the model. First, leave-one-out cross validation is applied whereby the country of landfall is determined by the majority vote (considering the location by only highest percentage of landfall) from the simulated tracks. Second, the probability distribution of simulated landfall is evaluated against the observed landfall. Third, the distances between the point of observed landfall and simulated landfall are compared and quantified. Overall, the model shows very good cross-validated hindcast skill of modelled landfalling cyclones against observations in each of the NIO tropical cyclone seasons and for most NIO rim countries, with only a relatively small difference in the percentage of predicted landfall locations compared with observations.

Teleconnections, Midlatitude Cyclones and Aegean Sea Turbulent Heat Flux Variability on Daily Through Decadal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanski, Joy; Romanou, Anastasia; Bauer, Michael; Tselioudis, George

2013-01-01

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958-2001, and identify four distinct cyclone states, corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc), and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deep water formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern (NCP), showing that the area of influence of large scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.

Multi-hazard risk assessment of coastal vulnerability from tropical cyclones - A GIS based approach for the Odisha coast.

PubMed

Sahoo, Bishnupriya; Bhaskaran, Prasad K

2018-01-15

The coastal region bordering the East coast of India is a thickly populated belt exposed to high risk and vulnerability from natural hazards such as tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclone frequencies that develop over the Bay of Bengal (average of 5-6 per year) region are much higher as compared to the Arabian Sea thereby posing a high risk factor associated with storm surge, inland inundation, wind gust, intense rainfall, etc. The Odisha State in the East coast of India experiences the highest number of cyclone strikes as compared to West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. To express the destructive potential resulting from tropical cyclones the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) is a widely used metric globally. A recent study indicates that PDI for cyclones in the present decade have increased about six times as compared to the past. Hence there is a need to precisely ascertain the coastal vulnerability and risk factors associated with high intense cyclones expected in a changing climate. As such there are no comprehensive studies attempted so far on the determination of Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for Odisha coast that is highly prone to cyclone strikes. With this motivation, the present study makes an attempt to investigate the physical, environmental, social, and economic impacts on coastal vulnerability associated with tropical cyclones for the Odisha coast. The study also investigates the futuristic projection of coastal vulnerability over this region expected in a changing climate scenario. Eight fair weather parameters along with storm surge height and onshore inundation were used to estimate the Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI). Thereafter, the PVI along with social, economic, and environmental vulnerability was used to determine the overall CVI using the GIS based approach. The authors believe that the comprehensive nature of this study is expected to benefit coastal zone management authorities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cyclone as a precleaner to ESP--a need for Indian coal based thermal power plants.

PubMed

George, K V; Manjunath, S; Rao, C V Chalapati; Bopche, A M

2003-11-01

Almost all coal based thermal power plants (CTPP) in India use electrostatic precipitator (ESP) for reduction of particulate matter (PM) in flue gas generated due to the combustion of Indian coal. This coal is characterized by high ash content, low calorific value and low sulfur content resulting in the generation of a very large amount of highly electrically-resistive fly-ash; thereby requiring a very large size ESP to minimize the fly-ash emissions. However, the flue-gas particle size distribution analysis showed that 60% of the particles are above 15 microm size, which can be conveniently removed using a low-cost inertial separator such as a cyclone separator. It is proposed that a cyclone be used, as a pre-cleaner to ESP so that the large size fraction of fly-ash can be removed in the pre-cleaning and the remaining flue-gas entering the ESP will then contain only small size particles with low dust loading, thereby requiring a small ESP, and improving overall efficiency of dust removal. A low efficiency (65%), high throughput cyclone is considered for pre-cleaning flue gas and the ESP is designed for removal of the remaining 35% fly-ash from the flue gas. It is observed that with 100% dust load, the ESP requires six fields per pass, whereas with cyclone as a pre-cleaner, it requires only five fields per pass. Introducing cyclone into the flue gas path results in additional head loss, which needs to be overcome by providing additional power to induced draft (ID) fan. The permissible head loss due to the cyclone is estimated by comparing the power requirement in the bag filter control unit and cyclone-ESP combined unit. It is estimated that a head loss of 10 cm of water can be permitted across the cyclone so as to design the same for 65% efficiency.

Tropical cyclone track Analysis over Indian Coast Using Spatio-Temporal data-mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohapatra, Gyanendranath; Manjunath, Swetha; Behera, Sasmita; Mohanty, Pratap Kumar

2015-04-01

Tropical cyclones are a natural hazard which largely affects the lives and property with its destructive wind and heavy rainfall. Fluctuations in the frequency and intensity complicate the detection of long-term trends and play an important role in the global climate system; therefore understanding and predicting tropical cyclones track, intensity, and landfall location is of both societal and scientific significance. In this study a data-mining approach is being used to analyze the tropical cyclone track both in the temporal and spatial scale. Basically, the Indian coast line is divided into four zones viz. north east, south east in the eastern side adjoining Bay of Bengal and North west and south west in the western side adjoining Arabian sea as these coastal areas are very much vulnerable for disaster due to maximum number of landfall of Tropical Cyclones. The track and landfall associated with all the cyclones are clustered based on their intensity (Severe, moderate and low) and landfall location. The analyses are carried out for landfall location and the extent of track separately for the events happening in two seasons i.e. pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period. Along with categorization of intensity, trend analysis of track and the targeted zone of maximum damage also been studied. Algorithms are being developed for potential resilient and impact assessment of the parameters associated with cyclone disaster in the coastal region of India. One of the important objectives of this present work is also the identification of most disaster prone coastal area and becoming a part of the information support system during the cyclone period. Based on the statistics like mean, Standard Deviation, regression and correlation analysis, an index is developed which determines the level of damage and vulnerability along the coastal region. This index can be used for the early warning system of particular coastal areas for the preparedness and mitigation of future cyclone events.

New Science Enabled by the NASA TROPICS CubeSat Constellation Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackwell, W. J.; Braun, S. A.; Bennartz, R.; Velden, C.; Demaria, M.; Atlas, R. M.; Dunion, J. P.; Marks, F.; Rogers, R. F.; Annane, B.

2017-12-01

Recent technology advances in miniature microwave radiometers that can be hosted on very small satellites has made possible a new class of affordable constellation missions that provide very high revisit rates of tropical cyclones and other severe weather. The Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission was selected by NASA as part of the Earth Venture-Instrument (EVI-3) program and is now in development with planned launch readiness in late 2019. The overarching goal for TROPICS is to provide nearly all-weather observations of 3-D temperature and humidity, as well as cloud ice and precipitation horizontal structure, at high temporal resolution to conduct high-value science investigations of tropical cyclones, including: (1) relationships of rapidly evolving precipitation and upper cloud structures to upper-level warm-core intensity and associated storm intensity changes; (2) the evolution of precipitation structure and storm intensification in relationship to environmental humidity fields; and (3) the impact of rapid-update observations on numerical and statistical intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones. TROPICS will provide rapid-refresh microwave measurements (median refresh rate better than 60 minutes for the baseline mission) over the tropics that can be used to observe the thermodynamics of the troposphere and precipitation structure for storm systems at the mesoscale and synoptic scale over the entire storm lifecycle. TROPICS comprises a constellation of six CubeSats in three low-Earth orbital planes. Each CubeSat will host a high performance radiometer to provide temperature profiles using seven channels near the 118.75 GHz oxygen absorption line, water vapor profiles using 3 channels near the 183 GHz water vapor absorption line, imagery in a single channel near 90 GHz for precipitation measurements (when combined with higher resolution water vapor channels), and a single channel at 206 GHz that is more sensitive to precipitation-sized ice particles. This observing system offers an unprecedented combination of horizontal and temporal resolution to measure environmental and inner-core conditions for tropical cyclones on a nearly global scale.

Compact cyclone filter train for radiological and hazardous environments

DOEpatents

Bench, T.R.

1998-04-28

A compact cyclone filter train is disclosed for the removal of hazardous and radiological particles from a gaseous fluid medium. This filter train permits a small cyclone separator to be used in a very small space envelope due to the arrangement of the filter housing adjacent to the separator with the cyclone separator and the filters mounted on a plate. The entire unit will have a hoist connection at the center of gravity so that the entire unit including the separator, the filters, and the base can be lifted and repositioned as desired. 3 figs.

Tropical cyclone Pam field survey in Vanuatu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, Hermann M.; Pilarczyk, Jessica E.; Kosciuch, Thomas; Hong, Isabel; Rarai, Allan; Harrison, Morris J.; Jockley, Fred R.; Horton, Benjamin P.

2016-04-01

Severe tropical cyclone Pam (Cat. 5, SSHS) crossed the Vanuatu archipelago with sustained winds of 270 km/h on March 13 and 14, 2015 and made landfall on Erromango. Pam is the most intense tropical cyclone to make landfall on Vanuatu since the advent of satellite imagery based intensity estimates in the 1970s. Pam caused one of the worst natural disaster in Vanuatu's recorded history. Eleven fatalities were directly attributed to cyclone Pam and mostly due to lack of shelter from airborne debris. On March 6 Pam formed east of the Santa Cruz Islands causing coastal inundation on Tuvalu's Vaitupu Island located some 1100 km east of the cyclone center. Pam intensified while tracking southward along Vanuatu severely affecting the Shefa and Tafea Provinces. An international storm surge reconnaissance team was deployed to Vanuatu from June 3 to 17, 2015 to complement earlier local surveys. Cyclone Pam struck a remote island archipelago particularly vulnerable to the combined cyclonic multi-hazards encompassing extreme wind gusts, massive rainfall and coastal flooding due to a combination of storm surge and storm wave impacts. The team surveyed coastal villages on Epi, the Shepherd Islands (Tongoa and Mataso), Efate (including Lelepa), Erromango, and Tanna. The survey spanned 320 km parallel to the cyclone track between Epi and Tanna encompassing more than 45 sites including the hardest hit settlements. Coastal flooding profiles were surveyed from the shoreline to the limit of inundation. Maximum coastal flood elevations and overland flow depths were measured based on water marks on buildings, scars on trees, rafted debris and corroborated with eyewitness accounts. We surveyed 91 high water marks with characteristic coastal flood levels in the 3 to 7 m range and composed of storm surge with superimposed storm waves. Inundation distances were mostly limited to a few hundred meters but reached 800 m on Epi Island. Wrack lines containing pumice perfectly delineated the inundation at many sites and were mapped as line features. Coral boulders of more than 1 m diameter were measured on Erromango. Along each island that was sampled, Cyclone Pam deposited a 1 - 20 cm thick sedimentary layer consisting of foraminfera-bearing sand and pumice cobbles. Infrastructure damage on traditional and modern structures was assessed. Eyewitnesses were interviewed at most sites to document the chronology of the wind and coastal flooding events, survival strategies, cyclone and tsunami awareness, evacuation procedures, shelter locations and ancestral knowledge. Field observations were compared with surveyed eyewitness accounts of historic events such as severe tropical cyclone Uma in 1987. The measured cyclone Pam high water marks will facilitate the interpretation of the collected sedimentary evidence and serve as benchmarks for modeling studies.

A study on atmospheric and oceanic processes in the north Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felton, Clifford S.

Studies on oceanic and atmospheric processes in the Indian Ocean are an active and important area of scientific research. Understanding how intraseasonal and interannual variations impact both the ocean and atmosphere will aid in delineating potential feedback mechanisms and global teleconnections. Thanks to recent efforts focused on expanding observational capabilities and developing models for this region, researchers have been able to begin investigating atmospheric and oceanic processes in the Indian Ocean. This study focuses on the impact of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropical cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and on developing a method for estimating the barrier layer thickness (BLT) in the Indian Ocean from satellite observations. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-2) and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis data are used to investigate the alterations in atmospheric and oceanic conditions that impact tropical cyclones during ENSO events over a 33-year time frame (1979-2011). Atmospheric conditions are shown to be more favorable for tropical cyclone development during La Nina over the BoB due to the favorable alteration of large-scale wind, moisture, and vorticity distributions. By combining multiple satellite observations, including the recently launched Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Aquarius SAC-D salinity missions, BLT estimates for the Indian Ocean are generated with the use of a multilinear regression model (MRM). The performance of the MRM is evaluated for the Southeast Arabian Sea (SEAS), Bay of Bengal (BoB), and Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) where barrier layer formation is most rigorous. Results from the MRM suggest that salinity measurements obtained from Aquarius and SMOS can be useful for tracking and predicting the BLT in the Indian Ocean.

Occurrence of Landslides during the Approach of Tropical Cyclone Juliette (2001) to Baja California Sur, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antinao, J.; Farfan, L.

2012-12-01

The approach of Tropical Cyclone Juliette to the Baja California Peninsula in September 2001 triggered at least 419 landslides. Most of the landslides were shallow slips and debris slides, of limited areal extent, which were converted rapidly into debris flows to be exported quickly out of the mountain areas towards the lowlands. Main factors affecting landslide occurrence were total storm rainfall and intensity, aspect, geology and vegetation association. Two processes can be distinguished as initiating slope failure. The first process is linked to failures in concave topography, where accumulation of rainfall from exposed bedrock slopes generated excess overland flow that aggregated to generate a 'fire hose' effect on the base of slopes, mobilizing regolith. A second process involved a combination of wind and excess overland flow developed in the more convex or planar upper slopes, where heterogeneous regolith has formed in time following successional changes in vegetation associations along the oak-dry tropical forest ecotone. In this area, wind uprooted trees that dislodged large regolith and bedrock blocks, priming hillslopes for further runoff concentration. From the analysis of historical information, an estimative threshold curve for triggering landslides in this region is sketched. It was also determined that storms like Juliette approach the southern peninsula on average once every 100 years. Denudation estimates are in the higher end of the spectrum for a tectonically passive margin. These estimates should be considered when taking decisions regarding management of water resources in this area through damming of streams. The results emphasize the need for a more detailed representation of the spatial distribution of the rainfall and winds for this mountainous region frequently affected by the passage of tropical cyclones.

Climate change in the Pacific - is it real or not?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy

2013-04-01

In this presentation, novel approaches and new ideas for students and young researchers to appreciate the importance of climate science are discussed. These approaches have been applied through conducting a number of training workshops in the Pacific Island Countries and teaching a course on climate change international law and climate change science at the University of the South Pacific (USP) - the first course on this type in the Pacific. Particular focus of this presentation is on broadening students' experience with application of web-based information tools for analysis of climatic extremes and natural hazards such as tropical cyclones. Over the past few years, significant efforts of Australian climate scientists have been dedicated to improving understanding of climate in the Pacific through the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region). The first comprehensive scientific report about the Pacific climate has been published in 2011, as an outcome of the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP). A range of web-based information tools such as the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal, the Pacific Climate Change Data Portal and the Pacific Seasonal Climate Prediction Portal has been also developed through the PCCSP and the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program. Currently, further advancement in seasonal climate prediction science and developing enhanced software tools for the Pacific is undertaken through the Theme 1 of the Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) Program. This new scientific knowledge needs to be transferred to students to provide them with true information about climate change and its impact on the Pacific Island Countries. Teachers and educators need their knowledge-base regularly updated and tools that will help their students critically evaluate information transmitted via the mass media. This is particularly important when educators present to students cutting edge science knowledge on climate change. Climate change skeptics through mass media attack climate scientists and dismiss their findings about magnitude of climate change. A novel approach implemented in our training workshops and teaching courses gives students practical hands on experience in examining climate data using the developed web-based information tools. Using the tools, students can examine climate of the Pacific Island Countries, derive trends in climate variables such as temperature and rainfall and make their own conclusions. An open forum "Is climate change real or not?" has also been included as an integral part of these workshops and teaching, giving an opportunity for students to present their findings. They have also been asked to provide examples of observed change in the environment in their countries which may be related to climate change. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive severe weather events in the Pacific which regularly affect countries in the region. Understanding importance of updating knowledge about cyclones, extensive training in using the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/) has also been provided. Using this sophisticated web-based tool, students can learn about occurrences of cyclones in waters around their countries and over the whole Pacific. Positive feedback from university students and participants of training workshops has been obtained and this approach may be recommended for educators to include in their courses. Acknowledgement The research discussed in this paper was conducted through the PASAP, PCCSP and PACCSAP supported by the AusAID and Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

Electric Field Profiles over Hurricanes, Tropical Cyclones, and Thunderstorms with an Instrumented ER-2 Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mach, Doug M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bateman, Monte G.; Bailey, Jeff C.

2007-01-01

Over the past several years, we have flown a set of calibrated electric field meters (FMs) on the NASA high altitude ER-2 aircraft over oceanic and landbased storms in a number of locations. These included tropical oceanic cyclones and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Atlantic ocean during the Third and Fourth Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3,1998; CAMEX-4, 2001), thunderstorms in Florida during the TExas FLorida UNderflight (TEFLUN, 1998) experiment, tropical thunderstorms in Brazil during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (TRMM LBA, 1999), and finally, hurricanes and tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Western Pacific and thunderstorms in Central America during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP, 2005) mission. Between these various missions we have well over 50 sorties that provide a unique insights on the different electrical environment, evolution and activity occurring in and around these various types of storms. In general, the electric fields over the tropical oceanic storms and hurricanes were less than a few kilovolts per meter at the ER-2 altitude, while the lightning rates were low. Land-based thunderstorms often produced high lightning activity and correspondingly higher electric fields.

Record Balkan floods of 2014 linked to planetary wave resonance.

PubMed

Stadtherr, Lisa; Coumou, Dim; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Petri, Stefan; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2016-04-01

In May 2014, the Balkans were hit by a Vb-type cyclone that brought disastrous flooding and severe damage to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia. Vb cyclones migrate from the Mediterranean, where they absorb warm and moist air, to the north, often causing flooding in central/eastern Europe. Extreme rainfall events are increasing on a global scale, and both thermodynamic and dynamical mechanisms play a role. Where thermodynamic aspects are generally well understood, there is large uncertainty associated with current and future changes in dynamics. We study the climatic and meteorological factors that influenced the catastrophic flooding in the Balkans, where we focus on large-scale circulation. We show that the Vb cyclone was unusually stationary, bringing extreme rainfall for several consecutive days, and that this situation was likely linked to a quasi-stationary circumglobal Rossby wave train. We provide evidence that this quasi-stationary wave was amplified by wave resonance. Statistical analysis of daily spring rainfall over the Balkan region reveals significant upward trends over 1950-2014, especially in the high quantiles relevant for flooding events. These changes cannot be explained by simple thermodynamic arguments, and we thus argue that dynamical processes likely played a role in increasing flood risks over the Balkans.

Modeling Postconvective Submesoscale Coherent Vortices in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damien, P.; Bosse, A.; Testor, P.; Marsaleix, P.; Estournel, C.

2017-12-01

For the first time, the formation of submesoscale coherent vortices (SCVs) during intermediate and deep convection events is documented in a realistic high-resolution (1 km) numerical simulation of the oceanic circulation in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Winter intermediate and deep convection leads to the formation of anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies with lifetimes exceeding 1 year. By focusing on three typical eddies, the main characteristics of such vortices are discussed. The anticyclonic eddies are typical of SCVs observed in deep convection areas so far. They are characterized by a small radius (˜6.5 km) and orbital peak velocities of about 7 cm/s located at great depth (˜1500 m) or intermediate depth (˜500 m). The cyclonic vortices show very similar characteristics, such as a high Rossby number (˜0.4), but with surface-intensified structures. The long lifetimes of both anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies reflect very slow diffusive processes between their core and their surroundings and a strong resistance to external perturbations. These long-lived eddies are found to participate in the spreading of a significant portion (from 15 to 35%) of the convected waters in the Gulf of Lions and contribute to the ventilation of the deep basin.

Atmospheric energetics as related to cyclogenesis over the eastern United States. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, P. W.

1973-01-01

A method is presented to investigate the atmospheric energy budget as related to cyclogenesis. Energy budget equations are developed that are shown to be advantageous because the individual terms represent basic physical processes which produce changes in atmospheric energy, and the equations provide a means to study the interaction of the cyclone with the larger scales of motion. The work presented represents an extension of previous studies because all of the terms of the energy budget equations were evaluated throughout the development period of the cyclone. Computations are carried out over a limited atmospheric volume which encompasses the cyclone, and boundary fluxes of energy that were ignored in most previous studies are evaluated. Two examples of cyclogenesis over the eastern United States were chosen for study. One of the cases (1-4 November, 1966) represented an example of vigorous development, while the development in the other case (5-8 December, 1969) was more modest. Objectively analyzed data were used in the evaluation of the energy budget terms in order to minimize computational errors, and an objective analysis scheme is described that insures that all of the resolution contained in the rawinsonde observations is incorporated in the analyses.

Evidence of Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport Within a Mesoscale Model and TOMS Total Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Mark A.; Stanford, John L.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We present evidence for stratospheric mass transport into, and remaining in, the troposphere in an intense midlatitude cyclone. Mesoscale forecast model analysis fields from the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS) were compared with total ozone observations from the Total Ozone Measurement Spectrometer (TOMS). Coupled with parcel back-trajectory calculations, the analyses suggest two mechanisms contributed to the mass exchange: (1) A region of dynamical ly-induced exchange occurred on the cyclone's southern edge. Parcels originally in the stratosphere crossed the jet core and experienced dilution by turbulent mixing with tropospheric air. (2) Diabatic effects reduced parcel potential vorticity (PV) for trajectories traversing precipitation regions, resulting in a "PV-hole" signature in the cyclone center. Air with lower-stratospheric values of ozone and water vapor was left in the troposphere. The strength of the latter process may be atypical. These results, combined with other research, suggest that precipitation-induced diabatic effects can significantly modify, (either decreasing or increasing) parcel potential vorticity, depending on parcel trajectory configuration with respect to jet core and maximum heating regions. In addition, these results underscore the importance of using not only PV but also chemical constituents for diagnoses of stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE).

Kinetics of process of product separation in closed system with recirculation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prokopenko, V. S.; Orekhova, T. N.; Goncharov, E. I.; Odobesko, I. A.

2018-03-01

The object of an article is the extrapolation of the process of classifying material while passing in a model with the separation of the products of milling in the cleaning system includes a separator, concentrator, cyclone and a recycle loop. The model allows for the given parameters to predict the coarseness of grading of the finished product.

Rate of prescription of antidepressant and anxiolytic drugs after Cyclone Yasi in North Queensland.

PubMed

Usher, Kim; Brown, Lawrence H; Buettner, Petra; Glass, Beverley; Boon, Helen; West, Caryn; Grasso, Joseph; Chamberlain-Salaun, Jennifer; Woods, Cindy

2012-12-01

The need to manage psychological symptoms after disasters can result in an increase in the prescription of psychotropic drugs, including antidepressants and anxiolytics. Therefore, an increase in the prescription of antidepressants and anxiolytics could be an indicator of general psychological distress in the community. The purpose of this study was to determine if there was a change in the rate of prescription of antidepressant and anxiolytic drugs following Cyclone Yasi. A quantitative evaluation of new prescriptions of antidepressants and anxiolytics was conducted. The total number of new prescriptions for these drugs was calculated for the period six months after the cyclone and compared with the same six month period in the preceding year. Two control drugs were also included to rule out changes in the general rate of drug prescription in the affected communities. After Cyclone Yasi, there was an increase in the prescription of antidepressant drugs across all age and gender groups in the affected communities except for males 14-54 years of age. The prescription of anxiolytic drugs decreased immediately after the cyclone, but increased by the end of the six-month post-cyclone period. Control drug prescription did not change. There was a quantifiable increase in the prescription of antidepressant drugs following Cyclone Yasi that may indicate an increase in psychosocial distress in the community.

Effects of uniformities of deposition of respirable particles on filters on determining their quartz contents by using the direct on-filter X-ray diffraction (DOF XRD) method.

PubMed

Chen, Ching-Hwa; Tsaia, Perng-Jy; Lai, Chane-Yu; Peng, Ya-Lian; Soo, Jhy-Charm; Chen, Cheng-Yao; Shih, Tung-Sheng

2010-04-15

In this study, field samplings were conducted in three workplaces of a foundry plant, including the molding, demolding, and bead blasting, respectively. Three respirable aerosol samplers (including a 25-mm aluminum cyclone, nylon cyclone, and IOSH cyclone) were used side-by-side to collect samples from each selected workplace. For each collected sample, the uniformity of the deposition of respirable dusts on the filter was measured and its free silica content was determined by both the DOF XRD method and NIOSH 7500 XRD method (i.e., the reference method). A same trend in measured uniformities can be found in all selected workplaces: 25-mm aluminum cyclone>nylon cyclone>IOSH cyclone. Even for samples collected by the sampler with the highest uniformity (i.e., 25-mm aluminum cyclone), the use of the DOF XRD method would lead to the measured free silica concentrations 1.15-2.89 times in magnitude higher than that of the reference method. A new filter holder should be developed with the minimum uniformity comparable to that of NIOSH 7500 XRD method (=0.78) in the future. The use of conversion factors for correcting quartz concentrations obtained from the DOF XRD method based on the measured uniformities could be suitable for the foundry industry at this stage. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extratropical Cyclones near Iceland

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-04-22

A cyclone is a low-pressure area of winds that spiral inwards. Although tropical storms most often come to mind, these spiraling storms can also form at mid- and high latitudes. Two such cyclones formed in tandem in November 2006. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) flying onboard NASA’s Terra satellite took this picture on November 20. This image shows the cyclones south of Iceland. Scotland appears in the lower right. The larger and perhaps stronger cyclone appears in the east, close to Scotland. Cyclones at high and mid-latitudes are actually fairly common, and they drive much of the Earth’s weather. In the Northern Hemisphere, cyclones move in a counter-clockwise direction, and both of the spiraling storms in this image curl upwards toward the northeast then the west. The eastern storm is fed by thick clouds from the north that swoop down toward the storm in a giant “V” shape on either side of Iceland. Skies over Iceland are relatively clear, allowing some of the island to show through. South of the storms, more diffuse cloud cover swirls toward the southeast. Credit: NASA NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is home to the nation's largest organization of combined scientists, engineers and technologists that build spacecraft, instruments and new technology to study the Earth, the sun, our solar system, and the universe. Follow us on Twitter Join us on Facebook

Structures and Evolutions of Explosive Cyclones over the Northwestern and Northeastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shuqin; Fu, Gang

2018-06-01

In this study, the structures and evolutions of moderate (MO) explosive cyclones (ECs) over the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) and Northeastern Pacific (NEP) are investigated and compared using composite analysis with cyclone-relative coordinates. Final Operational Global Analysis data gathered during the cold seasons (October-April) of the 15 years from 2000 to 2015 are used. The results indicate that MO NWP ECs have strong baroclinicity and abundant latent heat release at low levels and strong upper-level forcing, which favors explosive cyclogenesis. The rapid development of MO NEP ECs results from their interaction with a northern cyclone and a large middle-level advection of cyclonic vorticity. The structural differences between MO NWP ECs and MO NEP ECs are significant. This results from their specific large-scale atmospheric and oceanic environments. MO NWP ECs usually develop rapidly in the east and southeast of the Japan Islands; the intrusion of cold dry air from the East Asian continent leads to strong baroclinicity, and the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension provides abundant latent heat release at low levels. The East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream supplies strong upper-level forcing. While MO NEP ECs mainly occur over the NEP, the low-level baroclinicity, upper-level jet stream, and warm ocean currents are relatively weaker. The merged cyclone associated with a strong middle-level trough transports large cyclonic vorticity to MO NEP ECs, which favors their rapid development.

The impacts of tropical cyclones on the net carbon balance of eastern US forests (1851-2000)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K. A.; Negrón-Juárez, R. I.

2013-12-01

In temperate forests of the eastern US, tropical cyclones are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial progress has been made to quantify forest damage and resulting gross carbon emissions from tropical cyclones. However, the net effect of storms on the carbon balance of forests depends not only on the biomass lost in single events, but also on the uptake during recovery from a mosaic of past events. This study estimates the net impacts of tropical cyclones on the carbon balance of US forests over the period 1851-2000. To track both disturbance and recovery and to isolate the effects of storms, a modeling framework is used combining gridded historical estimates of mortality and damage with a mechanistic model using an ensemble approach. The net effect of tropical cyclones on the carbon balance is shown to depend strongly on the spatial and temporal scales of analysis. On average, tropical cyclones contribute a net carbon source over latter half of the 19th century. However, throughout much of the 20th century a regional carbon sink is estimated resulting from periods of forest recovery exceeding damage. The large-scale net annual flux resulting from tropical cyclones varies by up to 50 Tg C yr-1, an amount equivalent to 17%-36% of the US forest carbon sink.

Parameter Uncertainty on AGCM-simulated Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.

2015-12-01

This work studies the parameter uncertainty on tropical cyclone (TC) simulations in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) using the Reed-Jablonowski TC test case, which is illustrated in Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). It examines the impact from 24 parameters across the physical parameterization schemes that represent the convection, turbulence, precipitation and cloud processes in AGCMs. The one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis method first quantifies their relative importance on TC simulations and identifies the key parameters to the six different TC characteristics: intensity, precipitation, longwave cloud radiative forcing (LWCF), shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF), cloud liquid water path (LWP) and ice water path (IWP). Then, 8 physical parameters are chosen and perturbed using the Latin-Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. The comparison between OAT ensemble run and LHS ensemble run shows that the simulated TC intensity is mainly affected by the parcel fractional mass entrainment rate in Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) deep convection scheme. The nonlinear interactive effect among different physical parameters is negligible on simulated TC intensity. In contrast, this nonlinear interactive effect plays a significant role in other simulated tropical cyclone characteristics (precipitation, LWCF, SWCF, LWP and IWP) and greatly enlarge their simulated uncertainties. The statistical emulator Extended Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (EMARS) is applied to characterize the response functions for nonlinear effect. Last, we find that the intensity uncertainty caused by physical parameters is in a degree comparable to uncertainty caused by model structure (e.g. grid) and initial conditions (e.g. sea surface temperature, atmospheric moisture). These findings suggest the importance of using the perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) method to revisit tropical cyclone prediction under climate change scenario.

Sandy retired from list of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names

Science.gov Websites

2012 Atlantic hurricane season Media Contact Dennis Feltgen 305-229-4404 305-433-1933 (cellular) Share tropical cyclone names April 11, 2013 GOES East image of Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 29, 2012. This NOAA GOES-13 cyclone names by the World Meteorological Organization's hurricane committee because of the extreme

Cyclone energy: impact of inlet velocity and outlet évasé designs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Because electricity generation produces emissions, reducing cyclone pressure drop has the potential to benefit the environment. Enhanced 1D3D cyclones common in the cotton ginning industry were tested with various évasés, over a range of inlet velocities. With évasés it was possible to reduce the ...

30 CFR 71.204 - Approved sampling devices; maintenance and calibration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... voltage per cell value; (2) Examination of all components of the cyclone to assure that they are clean and free of dust and dirt; (3) Examination of the inner surface of the cyclone on the approved sampling... positioning of the cyclone body, vortex finder and cassette to assure that they are rigid, in alignment, and...

40 CFR 63.11621 - What are the standards for new and existing prepared feeds manufacturing facilities?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... emissions and route them to a cyclone designed to reduce emissions of particulate matter by 95 percent or...) You must demonstrate that the cyclone is designed to reduce emissions of particulate matter by 95... operation of the cyclone in accordance with the applicable requirement in paragraphs (e)(2)(i), (ii), or...

30 CFR 70.204 - Approved sampling devices; maintenance and calibration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... components of the cyclone to assure that they are clean and free of dust and dirt; (3) Examination of the inner surface of the cyclone on the approved sampling device to assure that it is free of scoring; (4... leaks, and; (5) Examination of the clamping and positioning of the cyclone body, vortex finder and...

30 CFR 90.204 - Approved sampling devices; maintenance and calibration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... voltage per cell value; (2) Examination of all components of the cyclone to assure that they are clean and free of dust and dirt; (3) Examination of the inner surface of the cyclone on the approved sampling... positioning of the cyclone body, vortex finder and cassette to assure that they are rigid, in alignment, and...

30 CFR 71.204 - Approved sampling devices; maintenance and calibration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... voltage per cell value; (2) Examination of all components of the cyclone to assure that they are clean and free of dust and dirt; (3) Examination of the inner surface of the cyclone on the approved sampling... positioning of the cyclone body, vortex finder and cassette to assure that they are rigid, in alignment, and...

Changes of Mediterranean cyclones in the future climate employing high resolution climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Kouroutzoglou, J.; Keay, K.; Simmonds, I.; Giannakopoulos, C. A.; Brikolas, V.

2011-12-01

A number of studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. The assessment of the future changes of the cyclonic activity as imposed by global warming conditions is very important since these cyclones can be associated with extreme precipitation conditions, severe storms and floods. This is more important for the Mediterranean that has been found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The main objective of the current study is to better understand and assess future changes in the main characteristics of Mediterranean cyclones, including temporal and spatial variations of frequency of cyclonic tracks, and dynamic and kinematic parameters, such as intensity, size, propagation velocity, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the MPI-HH regional coupled climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is employed consisting of the REgional atmosphere MOdel (REMO), the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ocean model (MPI-OM) and the Hydrological Discharge Model (HD Model). A 25 km resolution domain is established on a rotated latitude-longitude coordinate system, while the physical parameterizations are taken from the global climate model ECHAM-4. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. The model results for the present climate are evaluated against ERA-40 Reanalysis (available through ECMWF), for the period 1962-2001. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. According to the results, a decrease of the storm number and a tendency towards deeper cyclones is expected in the future, in general agreement with the results of previous studies. However, new findings reveal with respect to the dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the cyclonic tracks. The model experiments verify that considerable inter-monthly variations of track density occur in the Mediterranean region. The study of the kinematic and dynamic parameters of the cyclonic tracks according to their origin domain show that the vast majority originate within the examined area itself. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

The role of mid-level vortex in the intensification and weakening of tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutty, Govindan; Gohil, Kanishk

2017-10-01

The present study examines the dynamics of mid-tropospheric vortex during cyclogenesis and quantifies the importance of such vortex developments in the intensification of tropical cyclone. The genesis of tropical cyclones are investigated based on two most widely accepted theories that explain the mechanism of cyclone formation namely `top-down' and `bottom-up' dynamics. The Weather Research and Forecast model is employed to generate high resolution dataset required for analysis. The development of the mid-level vortex was analyzed with regard to the evolution of potential vorticity (PV), relative vorticity (RV) and vertical wind shear. Two tropical cyclones which include the developing cyclone, Hudhud and the non-developing cyclone, Helen are considered. Further, Hudhud and Helen, is compared to a deep depression formed over Bay of Bengal to highlight the significance of the mid-level vortex in the genesis of a tropical cyclone. Major results obtained are as follows: stronger positive PV anomalies are noticed over upper and lower levels of troposphere near the storm center for Hudhud as compared to Helen and the depression; Constructive interference in upper and lower level positive PV anomaly maxima resulted in the intensification of Hudhud. For Hudhud, the evolution of RV follows `top-down' dynamics, in which the growth starts from the middle troposphere and then progresses downwards. As for Helen, RV growth seems to follow `bottom-up' mechanism initiating growth from the lower troposphere. Though, the growth of RV for the depression initiates from mid-troposphere, rapid dissipation of mid-level vortex destabilizes the system. It is found that the formation mid-level vortex in the genesis phase is significantly important for the intensification of the storm.

Quality of cyclone early warning services: a case study in remote off-shore island in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashrafi, Z. M.; Mahmud, S.; Mahbub, A. Q. M.

2015-12-01

Geographic location, the unique natural setting of the country and its tropical monsoon climate modify and regulate the climatic condition, makes Bangladesh more vulnerable to cyclones and storm surges. Previous studies have showed that 80-90 % of global losses and 53 % of total cyclone-related deaths worldwide, occur in Bangladesh and out of which, 42% of cyclone-caused deaths were recorded in the last two centuries. The Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP) is a unique joint program under the initiative of Government of Bangladesh and Bangladesh Red Crescent Society that provides a robust cyclone early warning (CEW) system for the 13 coastal districts in Bangladesh. CPP ensures rapid dissemination of official Bangladesh Meteorological Department's CEW signals to these communities. However, inconsistent CEW services are reported in several of these coastal communities. This study offered the quality assessment of CPP CEW services in Nijhum Island, a highly populated remotely located off-shore island in Bangladesh. Primary rural appraisal (household survey, focus group discussion and expert interview) were used for field data collection and Likert scale, for data analysis. Study revealed that cyclone early warning signal dissemination were restricted to small area covering only 35 percent of the total population. Moreover, local inhabitants had very poor understanding about disseminated CEW signals (flag signaling system, signal number & severity) although CPP initiated several training program to build and raise awareness. Consequently, people remained inactive during cyclone and reluctant to seek shelter which resulted in lack of proper post-disaster management. Moreover, local people had concern regarding accuracy of CEW signals disseminated by CPP. To ensure last mile connectivity of CEW services, it is highly recommended that local people should be given more training and awareness on CEW signals and how to respond to the same.

Quantitative and Qualitative Analyzes of the Explosive Cyclones that Reached the Antarctic Coast in the First Half of 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pires, L. B. M.; Romao, M.; Freitas, A. C. V.

2017-12-01

An explosive cyclone is a kind of extratropical cyclone which shows a drop in pressure of at least 24 hPa in 24 hours. These are usually intense and they have rapid displacement which hinders their predictability. It is likely that climate change is causing an increase in this type of event in the Antarctic coast and, if this increase is confirmed, the regime of winds and temperatures may be changing. If there are more incidences of explosive cyclones, probably the Antarctic winds are becoming more intense and the temperatures in some places are becoming lower and in others are becoming higher. In the northern portion of the Antarctic Peninsula a decrease in temperature already has been recorded over the last 15 years, while a higher incidence of explosive cyclones over the region also has been found during this period. Studies also have suggested that the drop in temperatures in the Antarctic may be associated with the changes in wind direction, but the cause of these wind direction changes is unknown. Explosive cyclones, which change the wind patterns when they reach certain areas therefore may be contributing to this change in the Antarctic climate. This study is part of the "Explosive Cyclones on the Antarctic Coast" (EXCANC) Project conducted by the World Environmental Conservancy organization. This project analyzes data from meteorological stations strategically scattered throughout the coast and operated by various international Antarctic programs, and also utilizes satellite images. Results show that during the first half of 2017 the highest number of events were recorded at the Australian Casey station with 10 cases, followed by the French station of Dumont D'Urville with 7 cases. Halley's English station recorded its first explosive cyclone this year. Intensity analyzes also are shown.

Borneo Vortex and Meso-scale Convective Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koh, T. Y.; Koseki, S.; Teo, C. K.

2014-12-01

We have investigated how the Borneo vortex develops over the equatorial South China Sea under cold surge conditions in December during the Asian winter monsoon. Composite analysis using reanalysis and satellite datasets has revealed that absolute vorticity and water vapour are transported by strong cold surges from upstream of the South China Sea to around the equator. Rainfall is correspondingly enhanced over the equatorial South China Sea. A semi-idealized experiment reproduced the Borneo vortex over the equatorial South China Sea during a perpetual cold surge. The Borneo vortex is manifested as a meso-alpha cyclone with a comma-shaped rainband in the northeast sector of the cyclone. Vorticity budget analysis showed that the growth/maintenance of the meso-alpha cyclone was achieved mainly by the vortex stretching. This vortex stretching is due to the upward motion forced by the latent heat release around the cyclone centre. The comma-shaped rainband consists of clusters of meso-beta scale rainfall cells. The intense rainfall in the comma-head (comma-tail) is generated by the confluence of the warmer and wetter cyclonic easterly flow (cyclonic southeasterly flow) and the cooler and drier northeasterly surge in the northwestern (northeastern) sector of the cyclone. Intense upward motion and heavy rainfall resulted due to the low-level convergence and the favourable thermodynamic profile at the confluence zone. In particular, the convergence in the northwestern sector is responsible for maintenance of the meso-alpha cyclone system. At both meso-alpha and meso-beta scales, the convergence is ultimately caused by the deviatoric strain in the confluence wind pattern but is significantly self-enhanced by the nonlinear dynamics. Reference: Koseki, S., T.-Y. Koh and C.-K. Teo (2014), Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14, 4539-4562, doi:10.5194/acp-14-4539-2014, 2014.

Multiyear Composite View of Ozone Enhancements and Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport in Dry Intrusions of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaeglé, Lyatt; Wood, Robert; Wargan, Krzysztof

2017-12-01

We examine the role of extratropical cyclones in stratosphere-to-troposphere (STT) exchange with cyclone-centric composites of O3 retrievals from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), contrasting them to composites obtained with the Modern-Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2) reanalyses and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We identify 15,978 extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere (NH) for 2005-2012. The lowermost stratosphere (261 hPa) and middle troposphere (424 hPa) composites feature a 1,000 km wide O3 enhancement in the dry intrusion (DI) airstream to the southwest of the cyclone center, coinciding with a lowered tropopause, enhanced potential vorticity, and decreased H2O. MLS composites at 261 hPa show that the DI O3 enhancements reach a 210 ppbv maximum in April. At 424 hPa, TES composites display maximum O3 enhancements of 27 ppbv in May. The magnitude and seasonality of these enhancements are captured by MERRA and MERRA-2, but GEOS-Chem is a factor of 2 too low. The MERRA-2 composites show that the O3-rich DI forms a vertically aligned structure between 300 and 800 hPa, wrapping cyclonically with the warm conveyor belt. In winter and spring DIs, O3 is enhanced by 100 ppbv or 100-130% at 300 hPa, with significant enhancements below 500 hPa (6-20 ppbv or 15-30%). We estimate that extratropical cyclones result in a STT flux of 119 ± 56 Tg O3 yr-1, accounting for 42 ± 20% of the NH extratropical O3 STT flux. The STT flux in cyclones displays a strong dependence on westerly 300 hPa wind speeds.

Synoptic regimes associated with the eastern Mediterranean wet season cyclone tracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Awad, Adel M.

2016-11-01

The main synoptic patterns associated with the wet season (October-May) eastern Mediterranean cyclones have been analyzed and described using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets for the period 1958-2013. The cyclone tracks detected in the eastern Mediterranean are classified into two types based on their positions: the local tracks and the long tracks. The local tracks are either stationary or short tracks. The long tracks distinguished into eleven very closed and highly correlated clusters, which are presented into three regimes namely the northern, the southern and the eastern border Mediterranean regimes. Among the 940 (44.78% of a total of 2099) long tracks, the northern, southern, and eastern border regime contributes respectively about 53.62%, 41.81% and 5% of the long tracks. In addition, the distribution of the long tracks reveals that a larger proportion of the cyclones are generated at the northern coast during November and spring months, while few cyclones are developed over the eastern Mediterranean border in warm months (April and May). Further, their synoptic features show that the regimes are associated with the extension of Azores high, specifically for each regime, the cyclogenesis areas of its clusters are controlled by the intersection of low level (850 hPa) trough and the position of the upper level (250 hPa) maximum wind. Furthermore, the orientations of clusters are controlled by the extension of Siberian high and the shape of cyclonic trough at 850 hPa. In addition, the synoptic study shows that most of the southern cyclones generated externally by African and Red Sea troughs, while most of the northern and eastern border cyclones are generated internally.

Numerical investigation of the effect of number and shape of inlet of cyclone and particle size on particle separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazaee, Iman

2017-06-01

Cyclones are one of the most common devices for removing particles from the gas stream and act as a filter. The mode of action of separating these particles, from mass gas flow, in this case, is that the inertia force exerted on the solid particles in the cyclone, several times greater than the force of inertia into the gas phase and so the particles are guided from the sides of the cyclone body to the bottom body but less power will be affected by the gas phase and from upper parts, solid particles, goes to the bottom chamber. Most of the attention has been focused on finding new methods to improve performance parameters. Recently, some studies were conducted to improve equipment performance by evaluating geometric effects on projects. In this work, the effect of cyclone geometry was studied through the creation of a symmetrical double and quad inlet and also studied cutting inlet geometry and their influence on separation efficiency. To assess the accuracy of modeling, selected model compared with the model Kim and Lee and the results were close to acceptable. The collection efficiency of the double inlet cyclone was found to be 20-25% greater than that of the single inlet cyclone and the collection efficiency of the quad inlet cyclone was found to be 40-45% greater than with the same inlet size. Also the collection efficiency of the rectangle inlet was found to be 4-6% greater than ellipse inlet and the collection efficiency of the ellipse inlet was found to be 30-35% greater than circle inlet.

Retrieval of spatially distributed hydrological properties from satellite observations for spatial evaluation of a national water resources model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendiguren González, G.; Stisen, S.; Koch, J.

2016-12-01

The NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYNSS) mission provides high temporal resolution observations of cyclones from a constellation of eight low-Earth orbiting satellites. Using the relatively new technique of Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R), all-weather observations are possible, penetrating even deep convection within hurricane eye walls. The compact nature of the GNSS-R receivers permits the use of small satellites, which in turn enables the launch of a constellation of satellites from a single launch vehicle. Launched in December of 2016, the eight CYGNSS satellites provide 25 km resolution observations of mean square slope (surface roughness) and surface winds with a 2.8 hour median revisit time from 38 S to 38 N degrees latitude. In addition to the calibration and validation of CYGNSS sea state observations, the CYGNSS science team is assessing the ability of the mission to provide estimates of cyclone size, intensity, and integrated kinetic energy. With its all-weather ability and high temporal resolution, the CYGNSS mission will add significantly to our ability to monitor cyclone genesis and intensification and will significantly reduce uncertainties in our ability to estimate cyclone intensity, a key variable in predicting its destructive potential. Members of the CYGNSS Science Team are also assessing the assimilation of CYGNSS data into hurricane forecast models to determine the impact of the data on forecast skill, using the data to study extra-tropical cyclones, and looking at connections between tropical cyclones and global scale weather, including the global hydrologic cycle. This presentation will focus on the assessment of early on-orbit observations of cyclones with respect to these various applications.

CYGNSS Surface Wind Observations and Surface Flux Estimates within Low-Latitude Extratropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crespo, J.; Posselt, D. J.

2017-12-01

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), launched in December 2016, aims to improve estimates of surface wind speeds over the tropical oceans. While CYGNSS's core mission is to provide better estimates of surface winds within the core of tropical cyclones, previous research has shown that the constellation, with its orbital inclination of 35°, also has the ability to observe numerous extratropical cyclones that form in the lower latitudes. Along with its high spatial and temporal resolution, CYGNSS can provide new insights into how extratropical cyclones develop and evolve, especially in the presence of thick clouds and precipitation. We will demonstrate this by presenting case studies of multiple extratropical cyclones observed by CYGNSS early on in its mission in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres. By using the improved estimates of surface wind speeds from CYGNSS, we can obtain better estimates of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes within and around extratropical cyclones. Surface heat fluxes, driven by surface winds and strong vertical gradients of water vapor and temperature, play a key role in marine cyclogenesis as they increase instability within the boundary layer and may contribute to extreme marine cyclogenesis. In the past, it has been difficult to estimate surface heat fluxes from space borne instruments, as these fluxes cannot be observed directly from space, and deficiencies in spatial coverage and attenuation from clouds and precipitation lead to inaccurate estimates of surface flux components, such as surface wind speeds. While CYGNSS only contributes estimates of surface wind speeds, we can combine this data with other reanalysis and satellite data to provide improved estimates of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes within and around extratropical cyclones and throughout the entire CYGNSS mission.

Local inertial oscillations in the surface ocean generated by time-varying winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shengli; Polton, Jeff A.; Hu, Jianyu; Xing, Jiuxing

2015-12-01

A new relationship is presented to give a review study on the evolution of inertial oscillations in the surface ocean locally generated by time-varying wind stress. The inertial oscillation is expressed as the superposition of a previous oscillation and a newly generated oscillation, which depends upon the time-varying wind stress. This relationship is employed to investigate some idealized wind change events. For a wind series varying temporally with different rates, the induced inertial oscillation is dominated by the wind with the greatest variation. The resonant wind, which rotates anti-cyclonically at the local inertial frequency with time, produces maximal amplitude of inertial oscillations, which grows monotonically. For the wind rotating at non-inertial frequencies, the responses vary periodically, with wind injecting inertial energy when it is in phase with the currents, but removing inertial energy when it is out of phase. The wind rotating anti-cyclonically with time is much more favorable to generate inertial oscillations than the cyclonic rotating wind. The wind with a frequency closer to the inertial frequency generates stronger inertial oscillations. For a diurnal wind, the induced inertial oscillation is dependent on latitude and is most significant at 30 °. This relationship is also applied to examine idealized moving cyclones. The inertial oscillation is much stronger on the right-hand side of the cyclone path than on the left-hand side (in the northern hemisphere). This is due to the wind being anti-cyclonic with time on the right-hand side, but cyclonic on the other side. The inertial oscillation varies with the cyclone translation speed. The optimal translation speed generating the greatest inertial oscillations is 2 m/s at the latitude of 10 ° and gradually increases to 6 m/s at the latitude of 30 °.

Model-Simulated Northern Winter Cyclone and Anticyclone Activity under a Greenhouse Warming Scenario.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi; Wang, Wei-Chyung

1997-07-01

Two 100-yr equilibrium simulations from the NCAR Community Climate Model coupled to a nondynamic slab ocean are used to investigate the activity of northern winter extratropical cyclones and anticyclones under a greenhouse warming scenario. The first simulation uses the 1990 observed CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11, and CFC-12 concentrations, and the second adopts the year 2050 concentrations according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change business-as-usual scenario. Variables that describe the characteristic properties of the cyclone-scale eddies, such as surface cyclone and anticyclone frequency and the bandpassed root-mean-square of 500-hPa geopotential height, along with the Eady growth rate maximum, form a framework for the analysis of the cyclone and anticyclone activity.Objective criteria are developed for identifying cyclone and anticyclone occurrences based on the 1000-hPa geopotential height and vorticity fields and tested using ECMWF analyses. The potential changes of the eddy activity under the greenhouse warming climate are then examined. Results indicate that the activity of cyclone-scale eddies decreases under the greenhouse warming scenario. This is not only reflected in the surface cyclone and anticyclone frequency and in the bandpassed rms of 500-hPa geopotential height, but is also discerned from the Eady growth rate maximum. Based on the analysis, three different physical mechanisms responsible for the decreased eddy activity are discussed: 1) a decrease of the extratropical meridional temperature gradient from the surface to the midtroposphere, 2) a reduction in the land-sea thermal contrast in the east coastal regions of the Asian and North American continents, and 3) an increase in the eddy meridional latent heat fluxes. Uncertainties in the results related to the limitations of the model and the model equilibrium simulations are discussed.

Saturn's north polar cyclone and hexagon at depth revealed by Cassini/VIMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baines, Kevin H.; Momary, Thomas W.; Fletcher, Leigh N.; Showman, Adam P.; Roos-Serote, Maarten; Brown, Robert H.; Buratti, Bonnie J.; Clark, Roger N.; Nicholson, Philip D.

2009-12-01

A high-speed cyclonic vortex centered on the north pole of Saturn has been revealed by the visual-infrared mapping spectrometer (VIMS) onboard the Cassini-Huygens Orbiter, thus showing that the tropospheres of both poles of Saturn are occupied by cyclonic vortices with winds exceeding 135 m/s. High-spatial-resolution (~200 km per pixel) images acquired predominantly under night-time conditions during Saturn's polar winter - using a thermal wavelength of 5.1 μm to obtain time-lapsed imagery of discrete, deep-seated (>2.1-bar) cloud features viewed in silhouette against Saturn's internally generated thermal glow - show a classic cyclonic structure, with prograde winds exceeding 135 m/s at its maximum near 88.3° (planetocentric) latitude, and decreasing to <30 m/s at 89.7° near the vortex center and<20 m/s at 80.5°. High-speed winds, exceeding 125 m/s, were also measured for cloud features at depth near 76° (planetocentric) latitude within the polar hexagon consistent with the idea that the hexagon itself, which remains nearly stationary, is a westward (retrograde) propagating Rossby wave - as proposed by Allison (1990, Science 247, 1061-1063) - with a maximum wave speed near 2-bars pressure of ~125 m/s. Winds are ~25 m/s stronger than observed by Voyager, suggesting temporal variability. Images acquired of one side of the hexagon in dawn conditions as the polar winter wanes shows the hexagon is still visible in reflected sunlight nearly 28 years since its discovery, that a similar 3-lane structure is observed in reflected and thermal light, and that the cloudtops may be typically lower in the hexagon than in nearby discrete cloud features outside of it. Clouds are well-correlated in visible and 5.1 μm images, indicating little windshear above the ~2-bar level. The polar cyclone is similar in size and shape to its counterpart at the south pole; a primary difference is the presence of a small (<600 km in diameter) nearly pole-centered cloud, perhaps indicative of localized upwelling. Many dozens of discrete, circular cloud features dot the polar region, with typical diameters of 300-700 km. Equatorward of 87.8°N, their compact nature in the high-wind polar environment suggests that vertical shear in horizontal winds may be modest on 1000 km scales. These circular clouds may be anticyclonic vortices produced by baroclinic instabilities, barotropic instabilities, moist convection or other processes. The existence of cyclones at both poles of Saturn indicates that cyclonic circulation may be an important dynamical style in planets with significant atmospheres.

Saturn's north polar cyclone and hexagon at depth revealed by Cassini/VIMS

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baines, K.H.; Momary, T.W.; Fletcher, L.N.; Showman, A.P.; Roos-Serote, M.; Brown, R.H.; Buratti, B.J.; Clark, R.N.; Nicholson, P.D.

2009-01-01

A high-speed cyclonic vortex centered on the north pole of Saturn has been revealed by the visual-infrared mapping spectrometer (VIMS) onboard the Cassini-Huygens Orbiter, thus showing that the tropospheres of both poles of Saturn are occupied by cyclonic vortices with winds exceeding 135 m/s. High-spatial-resolution (~200 km per pixel) images acquired predominantly under night-time conditions during Saturn's polar winter-using a thermal wavelength of 5.1 ??m to obtain time-lapsed imagery of discrete, deep-seated (>2.1-bar) cloud features viewed in silhouette against Saturn's internally generated thermal glow-show a classic cyclonic structure, with prograde winds exceeding 135 m/s at its maximum near 88.3?? (planetocentric) latitude, and decreasing to <30 m/s at 89.7?? near the vortex center and<20 m/s at 80.5??. High-speed winds, exceeding 125 m/s, were also measured for cloud features at depth near 76?? (planetocentric) latitude within the polar hexagon consistent with the idea that the hexagon itself, which remains nearly stationary, is a westward (retrograde) propagating Rossby wave - as proposed by Allison (1990, Science 247, 1061-1063) - with a maximum wave speed near 2-bars pressure of ~125 m/s. Winds are ~25 m/s stronger than observed by Voyager, suggesting temporal variability. Images acquired of one side of the hexagon in dawn conditions as the polar winter wanes shows the hexagon is still visible in reflected sunlight nearly 28 years since its discovery, that a similar 3-lane structure is observed in reflected and thermal light, and that the cloudtops may be typically lower in the hexagon than in nearby discrete cloud features outside of it. Clouds are well-correlated in visible and 5.1 ??m images, indicating little windshear above the ~2-bar level. The polar cyclone is similar in size and shape to its counterpart at the south pole; a primary difference is the presence of a small (<600 km in diameter) nearly pole-centered cloud, perhaps indicative of localized upwelling. Many dozens of discrete, circular cloud features dot the polar region, with typical diameters of 300-700 km. Equatorward of 87.8??N, their compact nature in the high-wind polar environment suggests that vertical shear in horizontal winds may be modest on 1000 km scales. These circular clouds may be anticyclonic vortices produced by baroclinic instabilities, barotropic instabilities, moist convection or other processes. The existence of cyclones at both poles of Saturn indicates that cyclonic circulation may be an important dynamical style in planets with significant atmospheres. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hagos, Samson M.

2015-01-28

Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Atlantic and Mediterranean (NAMED) can influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the tropical East Atlantic by modulating summer convection over western Africa. Analysis of 30 years of observations show that the NAMED SST is linked to a strengthening of the Saharan heat low and enhancement of moisture and moist static energy in the lower atmosphere over West Africa, which favors a northward displacement of the monsoonal front. These processes also lead to a northward shift of the African easterly jet that introduces an anomalous positive vorticity from western Africa to the main developmentmore » region (50W–20E; 10N–20N) of Atlantic TC. By modulating multiple processes associated with the African monsoon, this study demonstrates that warm NAMED SST explains 8% of interannual variability of Atlantic TC frequency. Thus NAME SST may provide useful predictability for Atlantic TC activity on seasonal-to-interannual time scale.« less

The importance of non-quasigeostrophic forcing during the development of a blocking anticyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsou, Chih-Hua; Smith, Phillip J.

1990-01-01

This study examines the impact of non-quasigeostrophic (NQG) processes during the development of a blocking anticyclone (January 21, 1979 over the southern tip of Greenland) and a precursor, upstream intense cyclone (January 18, 1979). Energy quantities and height tendencies determined from quasigeostrophic estimates are compared with the same quantities obtained from more general formulations. GLA FGGE Level III-b analysis on a 4 deg lat by 5 deg long grid was used to obtain energetics results. It is concluded that NQG processes strengthened the intensity of the block and a precursor explosive cyclone and that a portion of this increase resulted from enhanced baroclinic conversion of eddy potential to eddy kinetic energy and reduced barotropic energy conversion from eddy to zonal flow. It is suggested that NQG vorticity advection, instead of moderating wave developments, enhanced the block development, and it is also suggested that QG forcing might not have been adequate to produce the observed block development.

Study of the Western Black Sea Storms with a Focus on the Storms Caused by Cyclones of North African Origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galabov, Vasko; Chervenkov, Hristo

2018-04-01

We present a study of the Black Sea storms, using a long hindcast of the western Black Sea wind waves. The goal of the work is to study the trends in the storminess indicators. We identify 238 storms with significant wave height above 4 m for the period 1900-2015. We study the cyclogenetic regions of the cyclones causing these storms and focus specifically on the Black Sea storms associated with cyclones originating over the Gulf of Sidra and the adjacent areas. We also identify which of these storms are associated with the so-called explosive cyclogenesis (with deepening rate above 1 Bergeron) and find that 3 out of 5 cases of severe Black Sea storms associated with explosive cyclones are caused by cyclones originating in the Gulf of Sidra. We find no evidence of steady trends in the western Black Sea storminess.

Westward migration of tropical cyclone rapid-intensification over the Northwestern Pacific during short duration El Niño.

PubMed

Guo, Yi-Peng; Tan, Zhe-Min

2018-04-17

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can significantly affect the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific (WNP). However, ENSO events have various durations, which can lead to different atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Here we show that during short duration El Niño events, the WNP tropical cyclone rapid-intensification mean occurrence position migrates westward by ~8.0° longitude, which is caused by reduced vertical wind shear, increased mid-tropospheric humidity, and enhanced tropical cyclone heat potential over the westernmost WNP. The changes in these factors are caused by westward advected upper ocean heat during the decaying phase of a short duration El Niño. As super El Niño events tend to have short durations and their frequency is projected to increase under global warming, our findings have important implications for future projections of WNP tropical cyclone activity.

Aerosol Optical Depth Distribution in Extratropical Cyclones over the Northern Hemisphere Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naud, Catherine M.; Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

2016-01-01

Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and an extratropical cyclone database,the climatological distribution of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in extratropical cyclones is explored based solely on observations. Cyclone-centered composites of aerosol optical depth are constructed for the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude ocean regions, and their seasonal variations are examined. These composites are found to be qualitatively stable when the impact of clouds and surface insolation or brightness is tested. The larger AODs occur in spring and summer and are preferentially found in the warm frontal and in the post-cold frontal regions in all seasons. The fine mode aerosols dominate the cold sector AODs, but the coarse mode aerosols display large AODs in the warm sector. These differences between the aerosol modes are related to the varying source regions of the aerosols and could potentially have different impacts on cloud and precipitation within the cyclones.

Satellite Observations of Stratospheric Gravity Waves Associated With the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Lars; Wu, Xue; Alexander, M. Joan

2018-02-01

Forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones is a challenging problem. Rapid intensification is often preceded by the formation of "hot towers" near the eyewall. Driven by strong release of latent heat, hot towers are high-reaching tropical cumulonimbus clouds that penetrate the tropopause. Hot towers are a potentially important source of stratospheric gravity waves. Using 13.5 years (2002-2016) of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder observations of stratospheric gravity waves and tropical cyclone data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, we found empirical evidence that stratospheric gravity wave activity is associated with the intensification of tropical cyclones. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship data showed that strong gravity wave events occurred about twice as often for tropical cyclone intensification compared to storm weakening. Observations of stratospheric gravity waves, which are not affected by obscuring tropospheric clouds, may become an important future indicator of storm intensification.

Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

Nonlinear dynamics of drift structures in a magnetized dissipative plasma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aburjania, G. D.; Rogava, D. L.; Kharshiladze, O. A.

2011-06-15

A study is made of the nonlinear dynamics of solitary vortex structures in an inhomogeneous magnetized dissipative plasma. A nonlinear transport equation for long-wavelength drift wave structures is derived with allowance for the nonuniformity of the plasma density and temperature equilibria, as well as the magnetic and collisional viscosity of the medium and its friction. The dynamic equation describes two types of nonlinearity: scalar (due to the temperature inhomogeneity) and vector (due to the convectively polarized motion of the particles of the medium). The equation is fourth order in the spatial derivatives, in contrast to the second-order Hasegawa-Mima equations. Anmore » analytic steady solution to the nonlinear equation is obtained that describes a new type of solitary dipole vortex. The nonlinear dynamic equation is integrated numerically. A new algorithm and a new finite difference scheme for solving the equation are proposed, and it is proved that the solution so obtained is unique. The equation is used to investigate how the initially steady dipole vortex constructed here behaves unsteadily under the action of the factors just mentioned. Numerical simulations revealed that the role of the vector nonlinearity is twofold: it helps the dispersion or the scalar nonlinearity (depending on their magnitude) to ensure the mutual equilibrium and, thereby, promote self-organization of the vortical structures. It is shown that dispersion breaks the initial dipole vortex into a set of tightly packed, smaller scale, less intense monopole vortices-alternating cyclones and anticyclones. When the dispersion of the evolving initial dipole vortex is weak, the scalar nonlinearity symmetrically breaks a cyclone-anticyclone pair into a cyclone and an anticyclone, which are independent of one another and have essentially the same intensity, shape, and size. The stronger the dispersion, the more anisotropic the process whereby the structures break: the anticyclone is more intense and localized, while the cyclone is less intense and has a larger size. In the course of further evolution, the cyclone persists for a relatively longer time, while the anticyclone breaks into small-scale vortices and dissipation hastens this process. It is found that the relaxation of the vortex by viscous dissipation differs in character from that by the frictional force. The time scale on which the vortex is damped depends strongly on its typical size: larger scale vortices are longer lived structures. It is shown that, as the instability develops, the initial vortex is amplified and the lifetime of the dipole pair components-cyclone and anticyclone-becomes longer. As time elapses, small-scale noise is generated in the system, and the spatial structure of the perturbation potential becomes irregular. The pattern of interaction of solitary vortex structures among themselves and with the medium shows that they can take part in strong drift turbulence and anomalous transport of heat and matter in an inhomogeneous magnetized plasma.« less

40 CFR 63.11624 - What are the notification, reporting, and recordkeeping requirements?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... § 63.11621(e) to install and operate a cyclone to control emissions from pelleting operations, the... of the cyclone determined in accordance with § 63.11621(e)(2). (iv) If you own or operate an affected source that is not subject to the requirement in § 63.11621(e) to install and operate a cyclone to...

40 CFR 63.11624 - What are the notification, reporting, and recordkeeping requirements?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... § 63.11621(e) to install and operate a cyclone to control emissions from pelleting operations, the... of the cyclone determined in accordance with § 63.11621(e)(2). (iv) If you own or operate an affected source that is not subject to the requirement in § 63.11621(e) to install and operate a cyclone to...

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity in Relation to Temperature and Decadal- Length Oscillation Patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2009-01-01

Yearly frequencies of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, their locations of origin, peak wind speeds, average peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and average lowest pressures for the interval 1950-2008 are examined. The effects of El Nino and La Nina on the tropical cyclone parametric values are investigated. Yearly and 10-year moving average (10-yma) values of tropical cyclone parameters are compared against those of temperature and decadal-length oscillation, employing both linear and bi-variate analysis, and first differences in the 10-yma are determined. Discussion of the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season, updating earlier results, is given.

Cyclone: A close air support aircraft for tomorrow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, George; Croulet, Donald; Dunn, James; Graham, Michael; Ip, Phillip; Low, Scott; Vance, Gregg; Volckaert, Eric

1991-01-01

To meet the threat of the battlefield of the future, the U.S. ground forces will require reliable air support. To provide this support, future aircrews demand a versatile close air support aircraft capable of delivering ordinance during the day, night, or in adverse weather with pin-point accuracy. The Cyclone aircraft meets these requirements, packing the 'punch' necessary to clear the way for effective ground operations. Possessing anti-armor, missile, and precision bombing capability, the Cyclone will counter the threat into the 21st Century. Here, it is shown that the Cyclone is a realistic, economical answer to the demand for a capable close air support aircraft.

Atmospheric water parameters in mid-latitude cyclones observed by microwave radiometry and compared to model calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Katsaros, Kristina B.; Hammarstrand, Ulla; Petty, Grant W.

1990-01-01

Existing and experimental algorithms for various parameters of atmospheric water content such as integrated water vapor, cloud water, precipitation, are used to examine the distribution of these quantities in mid latitude cyclones. The data was obtained from signals given by the special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) and compared with data from the nimbus scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) for North Atlantic cyclones. The potential of microwave remote sensing for enhancing knowledge of the horizontal structure of these storms and to aid the development and testing of the cloud and precipitation aspects of limited area numerical models of cyclonic storms is investigated.

Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century

PubMed Central

Emanuel, Kerry A.

2013-01-01

A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950–2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones. PMID:23836646

Analyzing the Response of Climate Perturbations to (Tropical) Cyclones using the WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewari, M.; Mittal, R.; Radhakrishnan, C.; Cipriani, J.; Watson, C.

2015-12-01

An analysis of global climate models shows considerable changes in the intensity and characteristics of future, warm climate cyclones. At regional scales, deviations in cyclone characteristics are often derived using idealized perturbations in the humidity, temperature and surface conditions. In this work, a more realistic approach is adopted by applying climate perturbations from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) to ERA-interim data to generate the initial and boundary conditions for future climate simulations. The climate signal perturbations are generated from the differences in 21 years of mean data from CCSM4 with representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) for the periods: (a) 2070-2090 (future climate), (b) 2025-2045 (near-future climate) and (c) 1985-2005 (current climate). Four individual cyclone cases are simulated with and without climate perturbations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a nested configuration. Each cyclone is characterized by variations in intensity, landfall location, precipitation and societal damage. To calculate societal damage, we use the recently introduced Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP) index evolved from the Willis Hurricane Index (WHI). As CDP has been developed for general societal applications, this work should provide useful insights for resilience analyses and industry (e.g., re-insurance).

On the relationship between atmospheric water vapour transport and extra-tropical cyclones development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Juan A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ramos, Alexandre M.

2016-08-01

In this study we seek to investigate the role of atmospheric water vapour on the intensification of extra-tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic Ocean and more specifically to investigate the linkage between atmospheric rivers' conditions leading to the explosive development of extra-tropical cyclones. Several WRF-ARW simulations for three recent extra-tropical storms that had major negative socio-economic impacts in the Iberian Peninsula and south-western Europe (Klaus, 2009; Gong, 2013 and Stephanie, 2014) are performed in which the water vapour content of the initial and boundary conditions are tuned. Analyses of the vertically integrated vapour transport show the dependence of the storms' development on atmospheric water vapour. In addition, results also show changes in the shape of the jet stream resulting in a reduction of the upper wind divergence, which in turn affects the intensification of the extra-tropical cyclones studied. This study suggests that atmospheric rivers tend to favour the conditions for explosive extra-tropical storms' development in the three case studies, as simulations performed without the existence of atmospheric rivers produce shallow mid-latitude cyclones, that is, cyclones that are not so intense as those on the reference simulations.

Opposed-flow virtual cyclone for particle concentration

DOEpatents

Rader, Daniel J.; Torczynski, John R.

2000-12-05

An opposed-flow virtual cyclone for aerosol collation which can accurately collect, classify, and concentrate (enrich) particles in a specific size range. The opposed-flow virtual cyclone is a variation on the virtual cyclone and has its inherent advantages (no-impact particle separation in a simple geometry), while providing a more robust design for concentrating particles in a flow-through type system. The opposed-flow virtual cyclone consists of two geometrically similar virtual cyclones arranged such that their inlet jets are inwardly directed and symmetrically opposed relative to a plane of symmetry located between the two inlet slits. A top plate bounds both jets on the "top" side of the inlets, while the other or lower wall curves "down" and away from each inlet jet. Each inlet jet will follow the adjacent lower wall as it turns away, and that particles will be transferred away from the wall and towards the symmetry plane by centrifugal action. After turning, the two jets merge smoothly along the symmetry line and flow parallel to it through the throat. Particles are transferred from the main flows, across a dividing streamline, and into a central recirculating region, where particle concentrations become greatly increased relative to the main stream.

Examining South Atlantic Subtropical Cyclone Anita using the Satellite-Enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies Hourly Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaicberg, H.; Palmeira, A. C. P. A.; Nunes, A.

2017-12-01

Studies on South Atlantic cyclones are mainly compromised by scarcity of observations. Therefore, remote sensing and global (re) analysis products are usually employed in investigations of their evolution. However, the frequent use of global reanalysis might difficult the assessment of the characteristics of the cyclones found in South Atlantic. In that regard, studies on "subtropical" cyclones have been performed using the 25-km resolution, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), a product developed at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. In SRDAS, the Regional Spectral Model assimilates precipitation estimates from environmental satellites, while dynamically downscaling a global reanalysis using the spectral nudging technique to maintain the large-scale features in agreement with the regional model solution. The use of regional models in the downscaling of general circulation models provides more detailed information on weather and climate. As a way of illustrating the usefulness of SRDAS in the study of the subtropical South Atlantic cyclones, the subtropical cyclone Anita was selected because of its intensity. Anita developed near Brazilian south/southeast coast, with damages to local communities. Comparisons with available observations demonstrated the skill of SRDAS in simulating such an extreme event.

Tropical cyclone induced asymmetry of sea level surge and fall and its presentation in a storm surge model with parametric wind fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Machuan; Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

The asymmetry of tropical cyclone induced maximum coastal sea level rise (positive surge) and fall (negative surge) is studied using a three-dimensional storm surge model. It is found that the negative surge induced by offshore winds is more sensitive to wind speed and direction changes than the positive surge by onshore winds. As a result, negative surge is inherently more difficult to forecast than positive surge since there is uncertainty in tropical storm wind forecasts. The asymmetry of negative and positive surge under parametric wind forcing is more apparent in shallow water regions. For tropical cyclones with fixed central pressure, the surge asymmetry increases with decreasing storm translation speed. For those with the same translation speed, a weaker tropical cyclone is expected to gain a higher AI (asymmetry index) value though its induced maximum surge and fall are smaller. With fixed RMW (radius of maximum wind), the relationship between central pressure and AI is heterogeneous and depends on the value of RMW. Tropical cyclone's wind inflow angle can also affect surge asymmetry. A set of idealized cases as well as two historic tropical cyclones are used to illustrate the surge asymmetry.

Using Proxy Records to Document Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclones from 1820-1915

PubMed Central

Rohli, Robert V.; DeLong, Kristine L.; Harley, Grant L.; Trepanier, Jill C.

2016-01-01

Observations of pre-1950 tropical cyclones are sparse due to observational limitations; therefore, the hurricane database HURDAT2 (1851–present) maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration may be incomplete. Here we provide additional documentation for HURDAT2 from historical United States Army fort records (1820–1915) and other archived documents for 28 landfalling tropical cyclones, 20 of which are included in HURDAT2, along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. One event that occurred in May 1863 is not currently documented in the HURDAT2 database but has been noted in other studies. We identify seven tropical cyclones that occurred before 1851, three of which are potential tropical cyclones. We corroborate the pre-HURDAT2 storms with a tree-ring reconstruction of hurricane impacts from the Florida Keys (1707–2009). Using this information, we suggest landfall locations for the July 1822 hurricane just west of Mobile, Alabama and 1831 hurricane near Last Island, Louisiana on 18 August. Furthermore, we model the probable track of the August 1831 hurricane using the weighted average distance grid method that incorporates historical tropical cyclone tracks to supplement report locations. PMID:27898726

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.

2012-12-01

Although impending Arctic climate change is widely recognized, a wild card in its expression is how extreme weather events in this region will respond to greenhouse warming. Intense polar cyclones represent one type of high-latitude phenomena falling into this category, including very deep synoptic-scale cyclones and mesoscale polar lows. These systems inflict damage through high winds, heavy precipitation, and wave action along coastlines, and their impact is expected to expand in the future, when reduced sea ice cover allows enhanced wave energy. The loss of a buffering ice pack could greatly increase the rate of coastal erosion, which has already been increasing in the Arctic. These and related threats may amplify if extreme Arctic cyclones become more frequent and/or intense in a warming climate with much more open water to fuel them. This possibility has merit on the basis of GCM experiments, which project that greenhouse forcing causes lower mean sea level pressure (SLP) in the Arctic and a strengthening of the deepest storms over boreal high latitudes. In this study, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model output is used to investigate the following questions: (1) What are the spatial and seasonal characteristics of extreme Arctic cyclones? (2) How well do GCMs simulate these phenomena? (3) Are Arctic cyclones already showing the expected response to greenhouse warming in climate models? To address these questions, a retrospective analysis is conducted of the transient 20th century simulations among the CMIP5 GCMs (spanning years 1850-2005). The results demonstrate that GCMs are able to reasonably represent extreme Arctic cyclones and that the simulated characteristics do not depend significantly on model resolution. Consistent with observational evidence, climate models generate these storms primarily during winter and within the climatological Aleutian and Icelandic Low regions. Occasionally the cyclones remain very intense over the Arctic Ocean. The historical tendency in Arctic SLP varies considerably among the GCMs, but the intermodel average trend exhibits a lowering of mean-annual pressure over the Arctic during the past 150 years and an increase in extreme cyclones in the vicinity of the Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. However, only weak trends in extreme cyclones are simulated through 2005 over the Arctic Ocean, where simulations of future climate change produce the largest SLP falls.

Impact of tropical cyclones on aerosol properties over urban region of Hyderabad, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharol, Shailesh Kumar; Badarinath, K. V. S.; Rani Sharma, Anu; Krishna Prasad, V.; Kaskaoutis, Dimitrios G.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Kambezidis, Harry D.

2010-05-01

Fierce tropical cyclones occur in India during the pre-monsoon (spring), early monsoon (early summer), or post-monsoon (fall) periods. Originating in both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, tropical cyclones often attain velocities of more than 100 kmh-1 and are notorious for causing intense rain and tidal waves as they cross the Indian coast. Cyclones are associated with heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and sometimes, storm surges. In the present study, we have analyzed the changes in aerosol properties at Hyderabad, India, associated with very severe cyclonic storm "Mala" occurred during the last week of April, 2006 over the Central-Eastern part of the Bay of Bengal centered near Lat. 16.0 N and Long. 93.0 E, at 18:00 UTC on 28th April 2006, about 500 Km North of Portblair. This tropical cyclone, packing winds of 240 km/h, slammed into Myanmar on 28th April and 29th April destroying hundreds of houses, two beach resorts and at least five factories as per the reports of the Kyemon daily paper and the International Federation of the Red Cross. Cyclone "Mala" is described as the most severe cyclone in the Bay of Bengal after the 1999 Orissa Super Cyclone. The measurements for the case study were carried out in the premises of the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) campus at Balanagar (17o.28' N and 78o.26' E) located within the Hyderabad urban center during cyclone period. Synchronous and continuous observations of columnar Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) were carried out using a handheld multi-channel sun-photometer (Microtops-II, Solar Light Co., USA) at six wavelength bands centered around 380, 440, 500, 675, 870 and 1020 nm. Continuous measurements of particulate matter (PM) grain-size distribution were performed with the GRIMM aerosol spectrometer, model 1-108. The cyclone "Mala" over the Bay of Bengal occurred during 26-29 April, 2006, struck the coast of Myanmar with winds of 115 mph (185 kmh-1), causing severe damage and loss of human life on 29 April, 2006. Initially the depression was moving northwest and on 25 April it changed its direction and accelerated towards north and after northeast resulting in remarkable wind direction changes. As the cyclone moved towards the Myanmar coast on 29 and 30 April, the low-level convergence turned to northwesterly, pulling air from the northern Indian landscapes. This caused an increase in wind speed over the entire Bay of Bengal. The intensity of the cyclonic activity affected continental India on 28 and 29 April. On that day the wind field was dominated by a northwesterly flow from Indian continent towards the Bay of Bengal, which lifted a lot of mineral dust particles from the Indian arid landscapes. This is further confirmed from the analysis of Terra-MODIS image on 29 April, where the dust plumes over the Bay of Bengal can be clearly detected. The variation of the daily mean particulate-matter load measured by the GRIMM instrument showed nearly a two-fold increase in particulate-mass concentrations during the intense cyclone period (28th and 29th April). This is attributed to the increase in surface winds caused by the cyclonic activity, strongly associated with lifting of coarse-mode aerosols from the landscapes neighboring Hyderabad. Also, from the large standard deviations it is concluded that the diurnal pattern of the PMx concentrations are highly variable during the cyclonic activity, probably caused by the frequent and sharp changes in wind speed and direction accompanying it. The day-to-day variation of AOD500 and Ångström exponent α were also analysed. Contrary to the PMx concentrations, the AOD500 values showed remarkable decrease during the cyclone period. This decrease can be as high as 44% between the pre and during cyclone days (25th and 28th April), respectively and 41% between 28 and 30 April. These large variations in aerosol load are mainly attributed to the changes in wind speed and direction as well as the air mass trajectories, bringing marine air masses over the region on 28th April. Despite the uplifting of soil particles near the surface, the higher winds can act as a ventilation tool for the whole atmospheric column, thus resulting in lower AODs. Results are discussed in the paper.

Tropical Cyclone Glenda in the Indian Ocean

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-03-03

Tropical Cyclone Glenda took a five day tour of the Southern Indian Ocean in late February, 2015. The storm formed from a low pressure system, System 90S on February 24, when maximum sustained winds reached 40 mph (64 km/h). The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this true-color image of Tropical Storm Glenda on February 25 at 08:55 UTC (3:55 a.m. EST). At that time bands of thunderstorms wrapped into the low-level center of circulation. An eye was beginning to form. At 0900 UTC (4 a.m. EST) on February 25, Glenda's maximum sustained winds were near 63.2 mph (102 km/h). It was centered near 17.6 south latitude and 69.1 east longitude, about 760 miles (1,224 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Glenda was moving to the west-southwest at 8 mph (13 km/h). At that time, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center expect Glenda to strengthen to near 109 mph (176 km/h) before beginning to weaken. However, strong wind shear began to affect the storm. By the afternoon of February 26 Tropical Cyclone Glenda’s winds had dropped to about 58 mph (93 km/h), and by February 28 the storm had transitioned to an extra-tropical storm. Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Three-Dimensional Distribution of a Major Desert Dust Outbreak over East Asia in March 2008 Derived from IASI Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cuesta, Juan; Eremenko, Maxim; Flamant, Cyrille; Dufour, Gaelle; Laurent, Benoît; Bergametti, Gilles; Hopfner, Michael; Orphal, Johannes; Zhou, Daniel

2015-01-01

We describe the daily evolution of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of a major dust outbreak initiated by an extratropical cyclone over East Asia in early March 2008, using new aerosol retrievals derived from satellite observations of IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer). A novel auto-adaptive Tikhonov-Phillips-type approach called AEROIASI is used to retrieve vertical profiles of dust extinction coefficient at 10 microns for most cloud-free IASI pixels, both over land and ocean. The dust vertical distribution derived from AEROIASI is shown to agree remarkably well with along-track transects of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) spaceborne lidar vertical profiles (mean biases less than 110 meters, correlation of 0.95, and precision of 260 meters for mean altitudes of the dust layers). AEROIASI allows the daily characterization of the 3D transport pathways across East Asia of two dust plumes originating from the Gobi and North Chinese deserts. From AEROIASI retrievals, we provide evidence that (i) both dust plumes are transported over the Beijing region and the Yellow Sea as elevated layers above a shallow boundary layer, (ii) as they progress eastward, the dust layers are lifted up by the ascending motions near the core of the extratropical cyclone, and (iii) when being transported over the warm waters of the Japan Sea, turbulent mixing in the deep marine boundary layer leads to high dust concentrations down to the surface. AEROIASI observations and model simulations also show that the progression of the dust plumes across East Asia is tightly related to the advancing cold front of the extratropical cyclone.

An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2016-05-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

Training on Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones for Latin American students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farfán, L. M.; Raga, G. B.

2009-05-01

Tropical cyclones are one of the most impressive atmospheric phenomena and their development in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins has potential to affect several Latin-American and Caribbean countries, where human resources are limited. As part of an international research project, we are offering short courses based on the current understanding of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin. Our main goal is to train students from higher-education institutions from various countries in Latin America. Key aspects are tropical cyclone formation and evolution, with particular emphasis on their development off the west coast of Mexico. Our approach includes lectures on tropical cyclone climatology and formation, dynamic and thermodynamic models, air-sea interaction and oceanic response, ocean waves and coastal impacts as well as variability and climate-related predictions. In particular, we use a best-track dataset issued by the United States National Hurricane Center and satellite observations to analyze convective patterns for the period 1970-2006. Case studies that resulted in landfall over northwestern Mexico are analyzed in more detail; this includes systems that developed during the 2006, 2007 and 2008 seasons. Additionally, we have organized a human-dimensions symposium to discuss socio-economic issues that are associated with the landfall of tropical cyclones. This includes coastal zone impact and flooding, the link between cyclones and water resources, the flow of weather and climate information from scientists to policy- makers, the role of emergency managers and decision makers, impact over health issues and the viewpoint of the insurance industry.

Impacts of Particulate Matter on Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, W.; Rohli, R. V.

2017-12-01

The purpose of this project is to analyze the relationship between tropical cyclones of the Gulf of Mexico-Atlantic basin and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The daily mean PM2.5 concentration values were collected from United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Tropical cyclone data were collected from Tropical Prediction Center Best Track Reanalysis in Unisys Weather®. The GRIdded Binary (GRIB-formatted) data were downloaded from the Data Support Section of the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Through ArcGIS®, the tropical cyclone tracks were compared with the interpolated daily mean PM2.5 concentration value. Results suggest that the tracks tend to avoid areas with higher PM2.5 concentrations, and the intensity was weakened significantly after passing the PM2.5-rich area. Through simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the pressure and vertical structure of Hurricane Lili were weakened after passing the most PM2.5-rich area in Louisiana. Also, little evidence is found for the possibility of precipitation generated by the approaching tropical cyclone to cleanse the atmosphere of PM2.5 before storm passage. These results have important implications for tropical cyclone prediction as storms approach polluted areas or other places where PM2.5 particles are abundant, not only including urban environments but also in coastal areas where proscribed burns take place during tropical cyclone season, such as during sugarcane harvesting in southern Louisiana.