Science.gov

Sample records for advanced econometric estimation

  1. Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates.

    PubMed

    DeCicca, Philip; Kenkel, Don

    2015-06-01

    Econometric estimates of the responsiveness of health-related consumer demand to higher prices are often key ingredients for risk policy analysis. We review the potential advantages and challenges of synthesizing econometric evidence on the price-responsiveness of consumer demand. We draw on examples of research on consumer demand for health-related goods, especially cigarettes. We argue that the overarching goal of research synthesis in this context is to provide policy-relevant evidence for broad-brush conclusions. We propose three main criteria to select among research synthesis methods. We discuss how in principle and in current practice synthesis of research on the price-elasticity of smoking meets our proposed criteria. Our analysis of current practice also contributes to academic research on the specific policy question of the effectiveness of higher cigarette prices to reduce smoking. Although we point out challenges and limitations, we believe more work on research synthesis in this area will be productive and important.

  2. Econometric comparisons of liquid rocket engines for dual-fuel advanced earth-to-orbit shuttles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, J. A.

    1978-01-01

    Econometric analyses of advanced Earth-to-orbit vehicles indicate that there are economic benefits from development of new vehicles beyond the space shuttle as traffic increases. Vehicle studies indicate the advantage of the dual-fuel propulsion in single-stage vehicles. This paper shows the economic effect of incorporating dual-fuel propulsion in advanced vehicles. Several dual-fuel propulsion systems are compared to a baseline hydrogen and oxygen system.

  3. Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function

    SciTech Connect

    Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N.

    2001-01-01

    Increased attention by policy makers to the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable interest in the possibility of encouraging the expansion of forest area as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide. The marginal costs of carbon sequestration or, equivalently, the carbon sequestration supply function will determine the ultimate effects and desirability of policies aimed at enhancing carbon uptake. In particular, marginal sequestration costs are the critical statistic for identifying a cost-effective policy mix to mitigate net carbon dioxide emissions. We develop a framework for conducting an econometric analysis of land use for the forty-eight contiguous United States and employing it to estimate the carbon sequestration supply function. By estimating the opportunity costs of land on the basis of econometric evidence of landowners' actual behavior, we aim to circumvent many of the shortcomings of previous sequestration cost assessments. By conducting the first nationwide econometric estimation of sequestration costs, endogenizing prices for land-based commodities, and estimating land-use transition probabilities in a framework that explicitly considers the range of land-use alternatives, we hope to provide better estimates eventually of the true costs of large-scale carbon sequestration efforts. In this way, we seek to add to understanding of the costs and potential of this strategy for addressing the threat of global climate change.

  4. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs.

    PubMed

    Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B; Murray, Christopher JL

    2003-02-26

    Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973-2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals.The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs.In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

  5. Identification and Inference for Econometric Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Donald W. K.; Stock, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This volume contains the papers presented in honor of the lifelong achievements of Thomas J. Rothenberg on the occasion of his retirement. The authors of the chapters include many of the leading econometricians of our day, and the chapters address topics of current research significance in econometric theory. The chapters cover four themes: identification and efficient estimation in econometrics, asymptotic approximations to the distributions of econometric estimators and tests, inference involving potentially nonstationary time series, such as processes that might have a unit autoregressive root, and nonparametric and semiparametric inference. Several of the chapters provide overviews and treatments of basic conceptual issues, while others advance our understanding of the properties of existing econometric procedures and/or propose new ones. Specific topics include identification in nonlinear models, inference with weak instruments, tests for nonstationary in time series and panel data, generalized empirical likelihood estimation, and the bootstrap.

  6. Price and income elasticities of energy demand: Some estimates for Kuwait using two econometric models

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Mutairi, N.H.; Eltony, M.N.

    1995-12-31

    This paper estimates the demand for energy in Kuwait for the period 1965-1989 using two econometric models: a cointegration and error correction model (ECM) and a simultaneous-equation model (SEM). The results obtained from both models are similar. It is found that the energy demand is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run, and while it is elastic in the long run, the energy demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short run. Both models` validation shows that the ECM performed better in replicating the past than the simultaneous model, suggesting the need to use the ECM to identify future prospects for energy demand in Kuwait.

  7. Econometric Estimation of the Economic Impact of a University. AIR 1993 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gana, Rajaram

    This study conducted an econometric analysis of the impact of the University of Delaware (UD), a public, doctoral level institution, on the Delaware economy, particularly the impact of nonresident students. To construct a model the study used historical institutional data from the Office of Institutional Research and Planning at UD and…

  8. Econometric Studies of Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

    The econometrics of higher education emerged from the development of human capital theory and efforts to estimate rates of return to education in the 1960s and 1970s. This paper surveys the various strands of the literature on the econometrics of higher education that have developed during the last 40 years and indicates how a collection of papers…

  9. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models

    PubMed Central

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities. PMID:26958606

  10. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models.

    PubMed

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-12-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities.

  11. Two-stage residual inclusion estimation: addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling.

    PubMed

    Terza, Joseph V; Basu, Anirban; Rathouz, Paul J

    2008-05-01

    The paper focuses on two estimation methods that have been widely used to address endogeneity in empirical research in health economics and health services research-two-stage predictor substitution (2SPS) and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI). 2SPS is the rote extension (to nonlinear models) of the popular linear two-stage least squares estimator. The 2SRI estimator is similar except that in the second-stage regression, the endogenous variables are not replaced by first-stage predictors. Instead, first-stage residuals are included as additional regressors. In a generic parametric framework, we show that 2SRI is consistent and 2SPS is not. Results from a simulation study and an illustrative example also recommend against 2SPS and favor 2SRI. Our findings are important given that there are many prominent examples of the application of inconsistent 2SPS in the recent literature. This study can be used as a guide by future researchers in health economics who are confronted with endogeneity in their empirical work.

  12. Econometric Mediation Analyses: Identifying the Sources of Treatment Effects from Experimentally Estimated Production Technologies with Unmeasured and Mismeasured Inputs.

    PubMed

    Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents an econometric mediation analysis. It considers identification of production functions and the sources of output effects (treatment effects) from experimental interventions when some inputs are mismeasured and others are entirely omitted. JEL Code: D24, C21, C43, C38.

  13. A Systematic Comprehensive Computational Model for Stake Estimation in Mission Assurance: Applying Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Grimaila, Michael R

    2010-01-01

    In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we discuss how this infrastructure can be used in the subject domain of mission assurance as defined as the full life-cycle engineering process to identify and mitigate design, production, test, and field support deficiencies of mission success. We address the opportunity to apply the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Carnegie Mellon University and Software Engineering Institute s Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP) in this context.

  14. On aggregation in spatial econometric modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paelinck, Jean H. P.

    The spatial aggregation problem - also termed the modifiable areal unit problem - has attracted regular attention in spatial statistics and econometrics. In this study econometric aggregation analysis is used to investigate the formal composition of meso-areal parameters given micro-areal underlying relations with spatial dependence. Impact on stochastic terms (possible meso-areal spatial autocorrelation) is also studied. Finally consequences for meso-areal estimation are derived, the general finding having been that spatial aggregation leads to meso-region specific parameter values, with the estimation problems this implies.

  15. Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, Jin Woo

    Counties. The spatial-lag (SLM), the spatial error (SEM) and the spatial error component (SEC) models were compared. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is estimated to study the spatial heterogeneity of the marginal implicit prices of ACE impact within each county. New hybrid spatial hedonic models, the GWR-SEC and a modified GWR-SEM, are estimated such that both spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity are accounted. The results show that the coefficient of land under easement contract varies spatially within one county, but not within the other county studied. Also, ACE's are found to have both positive and negative impacts on the values of nearby residential properties. Among global spatial models, the SEM fit better than the SLM and the SEC. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR or the GWR-SEC model. Finally, the GWR-SEC showed spatial autocorrelation is stronger in one county than in the other county.

  16. Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, Kelley

    1988-01-01

    The development of parametric cost estimating methods for advanced space systems in the conceptual design phase is discussed. The process of identifying variables which drive cost and the relationship between weight and cost are discussed. A theoretical model of cost is developed and tested using a historical data base of research and development projects.

  17. Econometric Assessment of "One Minute" Paper as a Pedagogic Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Das, Amaresh

    2010-01-01

    This paper makes an econometric testing of one-minute paper used as a tool to manage and assess instruction in my statistics class. One of our findings is that the one minute paper when I have tested it by using an OLS estimate in a controlled Vs experimental design framework is found to statistically significant and effective in enhancing…

  18. Glossary for econometrics and epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Gunasekara, F Imlach; Carter, K; Blakely, T

    2008-10-01

    Epidemiologists and econometricians are often interested in similar topics-socioeconomic position and health outcomes-but the different languages that epidemiologists and economists use to interpret and discuss their results can create a barrier to mutual communication. This glossary defines key terms used in econometrics and epidemiology to assist in bridging this gap.

  19. Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, Kelley

    1988-01-01

    Parametric cost estimating methods for space systems in the conceptual design phase are developed. The approach is to identify variables that drive cost such as weight, quantity, development culture, design inheritance, and time. The relationship between weight and cost is examined in detail. A theoretical model of cost is developed and tested statistically against a historical data base of major research and development programs. It is concluded that the technique presented is sound, but that it must be refined in order to produce acceptable cost estimates.

  20. Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, Kelley

    1994-01-01

    NASA is responsible for developing much of the nation's future space technology. Cost estimates for new programs are required early in the planning process so that decisions can be made accurately. Because of the long lead times required to develop space hardware, the cost estimates are frequently required 10 to 15 years before the program delivers hardware. The system design in conceptual phases of a program is usually only vaguely defined and the technology used is so often state-of-the-art or beyond. These factors combine to make cost estimating for conceptual programs very challenging. This paper describes an effort to develop parametric cost estimating methods for space systems in the conceptual design phase. The approach is to identify variables that drive cost such as weight, quantity, development culture, design inheritance and time. The nature of the relationships between the driver variables and cost will be discussed. In particular, the relationship between weight and cost will be examined in detail. A theoretical model of cost will be developed and tested statistically against a historical database of major research and development projects.

  1. Advanced Physiological Estimation of Cognitive Status (APECS)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-09-15

    official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other documentation. 12. DISTRIBUTION AVAILIBILITY STATEMENT...sensors and intelligent software to gather preliminary field estimates of cognitive status of individual warfighters in operational settings. The...associated with fatigue, inattention, or overload. 12,13,14 The APECS algorithms are presently specified in high-level MATLAB code that can readily be

  2. Development of advanced acreage estimation methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guseman, L. F., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

    1980-01-01

    The use of the AMOEBA clustering/classification algorithm was investigated as a basis for both a color display generation technique and maximum likelihood proportion estimation procedure. An approach to analyzing large data reduction systems was formulated and an exploratory empirical study of spatial correlation in LANDSAT data was also carried out. Topics addressed include: (1) development of multiimage color images; (2) spectral spatial classification algorithm development; (3) spatial correlation studies; and (4) evaluation of data systems.

  3. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

    1990-03-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies. 10 refs., 8 figs., 32 tabs.

  4. Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Hudson, C.R. II

    1986-07-01

    To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies.

  5. Advancing Methods for Estimating Cropland Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, L.; Hansen, M.; Stehman, S. V.; Adusei, B.; Potapov, P.; Krylov, A.

    2014-12-01

    Measurement and monitoring of complex and dynamic agricultural land systems is essential with increasing demands on food, feed, fuel and fiber production from growing human populations, rising consumption per capita, the expansion of crops oils in industrial products, and the encouraged emphasis on crop biofuels as an alternative energy source. Soybean is an important global commodity crop, and the area of land cultivated for soybean has risen dramatically over the past 60 years, occupying more than 5% of all global croplands (Monfreda et al 2008). Escalating demands for soy over the next twenty years are anticipated to be met by an increase of 1.5 times the current global production, resulting in expansion of soybean cultivated land area by nearly the same amount (Masuda and Goldsmith 2009). Soybean cropland area is estimated with the use of a sampling strategy and supervised non-linear hierarchical decision tree classification for the United States, Argentina and Brazil as the prototype in development of a new methodology for crop specific agricultural area estimation. Comparison of our 30 m2 Landsat soy classification with the National Agricultural Statistical Services Cropland Data Layer (CDL) soy map shows a strong agreement in the United States for 2011, 2012, and 2013. RapidEye 5m2 imagery was also classified for soy presence and absence and used at the field scale for validation and accuracy assessment of the Landsat soy maps, describing a nearly 1 to 1 relationship in the United States, Argentina and Brazil. The strong correlation found between all products suggests high accuracy and precision of the prototype and has proven to be a successful and efficient way to assess soybean cultivated area at the sub-national and national scale for the United States with great potential for application elsewhere.

  6. An Applied Physicist Does Econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taff, L. G.

    2010-02-01

    The biggest problem those attempting to understand econometric data, via modeling, have is that economics has no F = ma. Without a theoretical underpinning, econometricians have no way to build a good model to fit observations to. Physicists do, and when F = ma failed, we knew it. Still desiring to comprehend econometric data, applied economists turn to mis-applying probability theory---especially with regard to the assumptions concerning random errors---and choosing extremely simplistic analytical formulations of inter-relationships. This introduces model bias to an unknown degree. An applied physicist, used to having to match observations to a numerical or analytical model with a firm theoretical basis, modify the model, re-perform the analysis, and then know why, and when, to delete ``outliers'', is at a considerable advantage when quantitatively analyzing econometric data. I treat two cases. One is to determine the household density distribution of total assets, annual income, age, level of education, race, and marital status. Each of these ``independent'' variables is highly correlated with every other but only current annual income and level of education follow a linear relationship. The other is to discover the functional dependence of total assets on the distribution of assets: total assets has an amazingly tight power law dependence on a quadratic function of portfolio composition. Who knew? )

  7. Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1979-01-01

    Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

  8. Allocating physicians' overhead costs to services: an econometric/accounting-activity based-approach.

    PubMed

    Peden, Al; Baker, Judith J

    2002-01-01

    Using the optimizing properties of econometric analysis, this study analyzes how physician overhead costs (OC) can be allocated to multiple activities to maximize precision in reimbursing the costs of services. Drawing on work by Leibenstein and Friedman, the analysis also shows that allocating OC to multiple activities unbiased by revenue requires controlling for revenue when making the estimates. Further econometric analysis shows that it is possible to save about 10 percent of OC by paying only for those that are necessary.

  9. Advancement of estimation fidelity in continuous quantum measurement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diósi, Lajos

    2002-03-01

    We estimate an unknown qubit from the long sequence of n random polarization measurements of precision Δ. Using the standard Ito stochastic equations of the a posteriori state in the continuous measurement limit, we calculate the advancement of fidelity. We show that the standard optimum value 2/3 is achieved asymptotically for n ≫ Δ2/96 ≫ 1. We append a brief derivation of novel Ito equations for the estimate state.

  10. Crystal study and econometric model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1975-01-01

    An econometric model was developed that can be used to predict demand and supply figures for crystals over a time horizon roughly concurrent with that of NASA's Space Shuttle Program - that is, 1975 through 1990. The model includes an equation to predict the impact on investment in the crystal-growing industry. Actually, two models are presented. The first is a theoretical model which follows rather strictly the standard theoretical economic concepts involved in supply and demand analysis, and a modified version of the model was developed which, though not quite as theoretically sound, was testable utilizing existing data sources.

  11. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    SciTech Connect

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M. ); Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

  12. Econometrics in outcomes research: the use of instrumental variables.

    PubMed

    Newhouse, J P; McClellan, M

    1998-01-01

    We describe an econometric technique, instrumental variables, that can be useful in estimating the effectiveness of clinical treatments in situations when a controlled trial has not or cannot be done. This technique relies upon the existence of one or more variables that induce substantial variation in the treatment variable but have no direct effect on the outcome variable of interest. We illustrate the use of the technique with an application to aggressive treatment of acute myocardial infarction in the elderly.

  13. Performance and Weight Estimates for an Advanced Open Rotor Engine

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Eric S.; Tong, Michael T.

    2012-01-01

    NASA s Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project and Subsonic Fixed Wing Project are focused on developing concepts and technologies which may enable dramatic reductions to the environmental impact of future generation subsonic aircraft. The open rotor concept (also historically referred to an unducted fan or advanced turboprop) may allow for the achievement of this objective by reducing engine fuel consumption. To evaluate the potential impact of open rotor engines, cycle modeling and engine weight estimation capabilities have been developed. The initial development of the cycle modeling capabilities in the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) tool was presented in a previous paper. Following that initial development, further advancements have been made to the cycle modeling and weight estimation capabilities for open rotor engines and are presented in this paper. The developed modeling capabilities are used to predict the performance of an advanced open rotor concept using modern counter-rotating propeller designs. Finally, performance and weight estimates for this engine are presented and compared to results from a previous NASA study of advanced geared and direct-drive turbofans.

  14. Econometric models for biohydrogen development.

    PubMed

    Lee, Duu-Hwa; Lee, Duu-Jong; Veziroglu, Ayfer

    2011-09-01

    Biohydrogen is considered as an attractive clean energy source due to its high energy content and environmental-friendly conversion. Analyzing various economic scenarios can help decision makers to optimize development strategies for the biohydrogen sector. This study surveys econometric models of biohydrogen development, including input-out models, life-cycle assessment approach, computable general equilibrium models, linear programming models and impact pathway approach. Fundamentals of each model were briefly reviewed to highlight their advantages and disadvantages. The input-output model and the simplified economic input-output life-cycle assessment model proved most suitable for economic analysis of biohydrogen energy development. A sample analysis using input-output model for forecasting biohydrogen development in the United States is given.

  15. Impacts of advanced manufacturing technology on parametric estimating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hough, Paul G.

    1989-12-01

    The introduction of advanced manufacturing technology in the aerospace industry poses serious challenges for government cost analysts. Traditionally, the analysts have relied on parametric estimating techniques for both planning and budgeting. Despite its problems, this approach has proven to be a remarkably useful and robust tool for estimating new weapon system costs. However, rapid improvements in both product and process technology could exacerbate current difficulties, and diminish the utility of the parametric approach. This paper reviews some weakness associated with parametrics, then proceeds to examine how specific aspects of the factory of the future may further impact parametric estimating, and suggests avenues of research for their resolution. This paper is an extended version of Cost Estimating for the Factory of the Future. Parametric estimating is a method by which aggregated costs are derived as a function of high-level product characteristics or parameters. The resulting equations are known as cost estimating relationships (CERs). Such equations are particularly useful when detailed technical specifications are not available.

  16. Part 2 The Link between GIS and spatial analysis . GIS, spatial econometrics and social science research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anselin, Luc

    Some ideas are formulated on the challenges presented to GIS, spatial analysis and spatial econometrics that result from recent trends in social science research. These new developments are characterized by a focus on the geography of phenomena. Particular emphasis is placed on the need to extend concepts of space, to broaden the analytical toolbox and to develop software and advance education.

  17. Advances in Time Estimation Methods for Molecular Data.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Sudhir; Hedges, S Blair

    2016-04-01

    Molecular dating has become central to placing a temporal dimension on the tree of life. Methods for estimating divergence times have been developed for over 50 years, beginning with the proposal of molecular clock in 1962. We categorize the chronological development of these methods into four generations based on the timing of their origin. In the first generation approaches (1960s-1980s), a strict molecular clock was assumed to date divergences. In the second generation approaches (1990s), the equality of evolutionary rates between species was first tested and then a strict molecular clock applied to estimate divergence times. The third generation approaches (since ∼2000) account for differences in evolutionary rates across the tree by using a statistical model, obviating the need to assume a clock or to test the equality of evolutionary rates among species. Bayesian methods in the third generation require a specific or uniform prior on the speciation-process and enable the inclusion of uncertainty in clock calibrations. The fourth generation approaches (since 2012) allow rates to vary from branch to branch, but do not need prior selection of a statistical model to describe the rate variation or the specification of speciation model. With high accuracy, comparable to Bayesian approaches, and speeds that are orders of magnitude faster, fourth generation methods are able to produce reliable timetrees of thousands of species using genome scale data. We found that early time estimates from second generation studies are similar to those of third and fourth generation studies, indicating that methodological advances have not fundamentally altered the timetree of life, but rather have facilitated time estimation by enabling the inclusion of more species. Nonetheless, we feel an urgent need for testing the accuracy and precision of third and fourth generation methods, including their robustness to misspecification of priors in the analysis of large phylogenies and data

  18. Essays in financial economics and econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Spada, Gabriele

    Chapter 1 (my job market paper) asks the following question: Do asset managers reach for yield because of competitive pressures in a low rate environment? I propose a tournament model of money market funds (MMFs) to study this issue. I show that funds with different costs of default respond differently to changes in interest rates, and that it is important to distinguish the role of risk-free rates from that of risk premia. An increase in the risk premium leads funds with lower default costs to increase risk-taking, while funds with higher default costs reduce risk-taking. Without changes in the premium, low risk-free rates reduce risk-taking. My empirical analysis shows that these predictions are consistent with the risk-taking of MMFs during the 2006--2008 period. Chapter 2, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo and published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2014), studies the effect of round-off error (or discretization) on stationary Gaussian long-memory process. For large lags, the autocovariance is rescaled by a factor smaller than one, and we compute this factor exactly. Hence, the discretized process has the same Hurst exponent as the underlying one. We show that in presence of round-off error, two common estimators of the Hurst exponent, the local Whittle (LW) estimator and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), are severely negatively biased in finite samples. We derive conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the LW estimator applied to discretized processes and compute the asymptotic properties of the DFA for generic long-memory processes that encompass discretized processes. Chapter 3, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo, studies the effect of round-off error on integrated Gaussian processes with possibly correlated increments. We derive the variance and kurtosis of the realized increment process in the limit of both "small" and "large" round-off errors, and its autocovariance for large lags. We propose novel estimators for the

  19. Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…

  20. Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

  1. Pulling Econometrics Students up by Their Bootstraps

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Hara, Michael E.

    2014-01-01

    Although the concept of the sampling distribution is at the core of much of what we do in econometrics, it is a concept that is often difficult for students to grasp. The thought process behind bootstrapping provides a way for students to conceptualize the sampling distribution in a way that is intuitive and visual. However, teaching students to…

  2. Teachers' Estimates of Candidates' Grades: Curriculum 2000 Advanced Level Qualifications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dhillon, Debra

    2005-01-01

    In the UK, estimated grades have long been provided to higher education establishments as part of their entry procedures. Since 1994 they have also been routinely collected by awarding bodies to facilitate the grade-awarding process. Analyses of required estimates to a British awarding body revealed that teachers' estimates of candidates'…

  3. Advances in parameter estimation techniques applied to flexible structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maben, Egbert; Zimmerman, David C.

    1994-01-01

    In this work, various parameter estimation techniques are investigated in the context of structural system identification utilizing distributed parameter models and 'measured' time-domain data. Distributed parameter models are formulated using the PDEMOD software developed by Taylor. Enhancements made to PDEMOD for this work include the following: (1) a Wittrick-Williams based root solving algorithm; (2) a time simulation capability; and (3) various parameter estimation algorithms. The parameter estimations schemes will be contrasted using the NASA Mini-Mast as the focus structure.

  4. Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

    2009-12-01

    This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.

  5. Advances in Focal Plane Wavefront Estimation for Directly Imaging Exoplanets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eldorado Riggs, A. J.; Kasdin, N. Jeremy; Groff, Tyler Dean

    2015-01-01

    To image cold exoplanets directly in visible light, an instrument on a telescope needs to suppress starlight by about 9 orders of magnitude at small separations from the star. A coronagraph changes the point spread function to create regions of high contrast where exoplanets or disks can be seen. Aberrations on the optics degrade the contrast by several orders of magnitude, so all high-contrast imaging systems incorporate one or more deformable mirrors (DMs) to recover regions of high contrast. With a coronagraphic instrument planned for the WFIRST-AFTA space telescope, there is a pressing need for faster, more robust estimation and control schemes for the DMs. Non-common path aberrations limit conventional phase conjugation schemes to medium star-to-planet contrast ratios of about 1e-6. High-contrast imaging requires estimation and control of both phase and amplitude in the same beam path as the science camera. Field estimation is a challenge since only intensity is measured; the most common approach, including that planned for WFIRST-AFTA, is to use DMs to create diversity, via pairs of small probe shapes, thereby allowing disambiguation of the electric field. Most implementations of DM Diversity require at least five images per electric field estimate and require narrowband measurements. This paper describes our new estimation algorithms that improve the speed (by using fewer images) and bandwidth of focal plane wavefront estimation. For narrowband estimation, we are testing nonlinear, recursive algorithms such as an iterative extended Kalman filter (IEKF) to use three images each iteration and build better, more robust estimates. We are also exploring the use of broadband estimation without the need for narrowband sub-filters and measurements. Here we present simulations of these algorithms with realistic noise and small signals to show how they might perform for WFIRST-AFTA. Once validated in simulations, we will test these algorithms experimentally in

  6. Recent advances in nonparametric function estimation: Hydrologic applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lall, U.

    1995-07-01

    Nonparametric function estimation refers to methods that strive to approximate a target function locally, i.e., using data from a "small" neighborhood of the point of estimate. "Weak" assumptions, such as continuity of the target function and its differentiability to some order in the neighborhood, rather than an a priori assumption of the global form (e.g., linear or quadratic) of the entire target function are used. Traditionally, parametric assumptions (e.g., hydraulic conductivity is log normally distributed, floods follow a log Pearson III (LP3) distribution, annual stream flow is either log normal or gamma distributed, daily rainfall amounts are exponentially distributed, and the variograms of spatial hydrologic data follow a power law) have dominated statistical hydrologic estimation. Applications of nonparametric methods to some classical problems (frequency analysis, classification, spatial surface fitting, trend analysis, time series forecasting and simulation) of stochastic hydrology are reviewed.

  7. Bootstrapping Student Understanding of What Is Going on in Econometrics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Peter E.

    2001-01-01

    Explains that econometrics is an intellectual game played by rules based on the sampling distribution concept. Contains explanations for why many students are uncomfortable with econometrics. Encourages instructors to use explain-how-to-bootstrap exercises to promote student understanding. (RLH)

  8. Estimating the Benefits of the Air Force Purchasing and Supply Chain Management Initiative

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-01-01

    challenge by developing an econometric model to account for such “co-occurring” factors. This monograph describes the resulting method and...Applying an Econometric Model to Estimate the Benefits of PSCM Initiatives...15 Applying the Econometric Model for NIIN-Level Outcomes

  9. Advanced Composite Air Frame Life Cycle Cost Estimating

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-19

    achievements. And, also, I dedicate this page to the soul of my father and lovely mother who taught me many life lessons and to my beautiful wife and four...Test Panel [ 17] .......................................................... 18 Figure 2 : Boeing 787 Dreamliner External Skin Makeup [ 7...exist a relationship between variables and empty wieght (EW) to build better cost estimation relationships (CERs). This research will help the

  10. A Simultaneous Equations Econometric Model of the Determinants of Vocational and Non-Vocational Spending and Enrollment. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clement, Meredith O.; Gustman, Alan L.

    Using an econometric model of four simultaneous equations for State cross-sectional data and of two equations for city cross-sections, the following determinants were estimated: (1) current spending on education, (2) the ratio of vocational to current educational expenditures, (3) the over-all enrollment rate in public schools, and (4) the…

  11. Advanced Physiological Estimation of Cognitive Status. Part 2

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-05-24

    Neurofeedback Algorithms and Gaze Controller EEG Sensor System g.USBamp *, ** • internal 24-bit ADC and digital signal processor • 16 channels (expandable...SUBJECT TERMS EEG eye-tracking mental state estimation machine learning Leonard J. Trejo Pacific Development and Technology LLC 999 Commercial St. Palo...fatigue, overload) Technology Transfer Opportunity Technology from PDT – Methods to acquire various physiological signals ( EEG , EOG, EMG, ECG, etc

  12. Advanced Method to Estimate Fuel Slosh Simulation Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlee, Keith; Gangadharan, Sathya; Ristow, James; Sudermann, James; Walker, Charles; Hubert, Carl

    2005-01-01

    The nutation (wobble) of a spinning spacecraft in the presence of energy dissipation is a well-known problem in dynamics and is of particular concern for space missions. The nutation of a spacecraft spinning about its minor axis typically grows exponentially and the rate of growth is characterized by the Nutation Time Constant (NTC). For launch vehicles using spin-stabilized upper stages, fuel slosh in the spacecraft propellant tanks is usually the primary source of energy dissipation. For analytical prediction of the NTC this fuel slosh is commonly modeled using simple mechanical analogies such as pendulums or rigid rotors coupled to the spacecraft. Identifying model parameter values which adequately represent the sloshing dynamics is the most important step in obtaining an accurate NTC estimate. Analytic determination of the slosh model parameters has met with mixed success and is made even more difficult by the introduction of propellant management devices and elastomeric diaphragms. By subjecting full-sized fuel tanks with actual flight fuel loads to motion similar to that experienced in flight and measuring the forces experienced by the tanks these parameters can be determined experimentally. Currently, the identification of the model parameters is a laborious trial-and-error process in which the equations of motion for the mechanical analog are hand-derived, evaluated, and their results are compared with the experimental results. The proposed research is an effort to automate the process of identifying the parameters of the slosh model using a MATLAB/SimMechanics-based computer simulation of the experimental setup. Different parameter estimation and optimization approaches are evaluated and compared in order to arrive at a reliable and effective parameter identification process. To evaluate each parameter identification approach, a simple one-degree-of-freedom pendulum experiment is constructed and motion is induced using an electric motor. By applying the

  13. Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spadoni, D. J.

    1983-01-01

    The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

  14. Advanced Composite Cost Estimating Manual. Volume II. Appendix

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1976-08-01

    0~~~~~~; - -m- O1 .,a 0 j in N j "s w f 0 0 Av .s 00 4 164 "i’ 3. -%’ 1*4*J. - N w 0-uo 16 fo moNi o w w -Q * * 0 h" v 0 a rq)E 4.1 w 0 -0 S p4 4 4...REkMOVE CHAIS 0.00J32 06COC43 I I 34 OPIN LC-OR 0*01402 o.ci’r2 I 31 PELEA *. 1.L. L JAO4 000035 22 36 RILtLA5E VAC. LINES 0.0031 !I kfMOVF lPAIk Ptk OVL...0 - NO 1- YES Ia YES INSERTS: 0 - NO 1 - YES 59 a *1 ACCEM-S COST PROJECTION CAM I UNIT MNER~aJboo~ AVE , LOT SIZiTYPE OF ESTIMATE UNIT COST aL. 21

  15. The Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool (ADEPT): A Risk Score to Estimate Survival in Nursing Home Residents with Advanced Dementia

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Susan L.; Miller, Susan C.; Teno, Joan M.; Davis, Roger B.; Shaffer, Michele L.

    2010-01-01

    Context Estimating life expectancy is challenging in advanced dementia. Objectives To create a risk score to estimate survival in nursing home (NH) residents with advanced dementia. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study performed in the setting of all licensed US NHs. Residents with advanced dementia living in US NHs in 2002 were identified using Minimum Data Set (MDS) assessments. Mortality data from Medicare files were used to determine 12-month survival. Independent variables were selected from the MDS. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model survival. The accuracy of the final model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). To develop a risk score, points were assigned to variables in the final model based on parameter estimates. Residents meeting hospice eligibility guidelines for dementia, based on MDS data, were identified. The AUROC assessed the accuracy of hospice guidelines to predict six-month survival. Results Over 12 months, 40.6% of residents with advanced dementia (n=22,405) died. Twelve variables best predicted survival: length of stay, age, male, dyspnea, pressure ulcers, total functional dependence, bedfast, insufficient intake, bowel incontinence, body mass index, weight loss, and congestive heart failure. The AUROC for the final model was 0.68. The risk score ranged from 0–32 points (higher scores indicate worse survival). Only 15.9% of residents met hospice eligibility guidelines for which the AUROC predicting six-month survival was 0.53. Conclusion A mortality risk score derived from MDS data predicted six-month survival in advanced dementia with moderate accuracy. The predictive ability of hospice guidelines, simulated with MDS data, was poor. PMID:20621437

  16. Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerkman, Linda

    2012-07-01

    The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

  17. Gas or electricity, which is cheaper?: An econometric approach with application to Australian expenditure data

    SciTech Connect

    Bartels, R.; Fiebig, D.G.; Plumb, M.H.

    1996-12-31

    This paper introduces a new econometric approach to obtaining comparative estimates of the expenditures made on different end uses by households using either electricity or gas. A large sample of Austrialian households was used to derive precise estimates for space heating, water heating and cooking. Households using electricity for electricity for main heating spend less than similiar households using gas; for cooking, households using gas spend less than those using electricity in most regions; for water heating the results are mixed. The authors describe the methodology used to equate households and energy costs for the comparative analysis. 25 refs., 8 tabs.

  18. The Pilot Training Study: A Cost-Estimating Model for Advanced Pilot Training (APT).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knollmeyer, L. E.

    The Advanced Pilot Training Cost Model is a statement of relationships that may be used, given the necessary inputs, for estimating the resources required and the costs to train pilots in the Air Force formal flying training schools. Resources and costs are computed by weapon system on an annual basis for use in long-range planning or sensitivity…

  19. Estimation of Infiltration Parameters and the Irrigation Coefficients with the Surface Irrigation Advance Distance

    PubMed Central

    Beibei, Zhou; Quanjiu, Wang; Shuai, Tan

    2014-01-01

    A theory based on Manning roughness equation, Philip equation and water balance equation was developed which only employed the advance distance in the calculation of the infiltration parameters and irrigation coefficients in both the border irrigation and the surge irrigation. The improved procedure was validated with both the border irrigation and surge irrigation experiments. The main results are shown as follows. Infiltration parameters of the Philip equation could be calculated accurately only using water advance distance in the irrigation process comparing to the experimental data. With the calculated parameters and the water balance equation, the irrigation coefficients were also estimated. The water advance velocity should be measured at about 0.5 m to 1.0 m far from the water advance in the experimental corn fields. PMID:25061664

  20. Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schu, Kathryn L.

    Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements

  1. The need for econometric research in laboratory animal operations.

    PubMed

    Baker, David G; Kearney, Michael T

    2015-06-01

    The scarcity of research funding can affect animal facilities in various ways. These effects can be evaluated by examining the allocation of financial resources in animal facilities, which can be facilitated by the use of mathematical and statistical methods to analyze economic problems, a discipline known as econometrics. The authors applied econometrics to study whether increasing per diem charges had a negative effect on the number of days of animal care purchased by animal users. They surveyed animal numbers and per diem charges at 20 research institutions and found that demand for large animals decreased as per diem charges increased. The authors discuss some of the challenges involved in their study and encourage research institutions to carry out more robust econometric studies of this and other economic questions facing laboratory animal research.

  2. Advanced Transportation System Studies. Technical Area 3: Alternate Propulsion Subsystems Concepts. Volume 3; Program Cost Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levack, Daniel J. H.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this contract was to provide definition of alternate propulsion systems for both earth-to-orbit (ETO) and in-space vehicles (upper stages and space transfer vehicles). For such propulsion systems, technical data to describe performance, weight, dimensions, etc. was provided along with programmatic information such as cost, schedule, needed facilities, etc. Advanced technology and advanced development needs were determined and provided. This volume separately presents the various program cost estimates that were generated under three tasks: the F- IA Restart Task, the J-2S Restart Task, and the SSME Upper Stage Use Task. The conclusions, technical results , and the program cost estimates are described in more detail in Volume I - Executive Summary and in individual Final Task Reports.

  3. The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - an econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Kaliakatsou, Evridiki; Bell, J Nigel B; Thirtle, Colin; Rose, Daniel; Power, Sally A

    2010-05-01

    Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O(3), with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O(3) impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O(3) tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss.

  4. An Econometric Approach to Evaluate Navy Advertising Efficiency.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1996-03-01

    This thesis uses an econometric approach to systematically and comprehensively analyze Navy advertising and recruiting data to determine Navy... advertising cost efficiency in the Navy recruiting process. Current recruiting and advertising cost data are merged into an appropriate data base and...evaluated using multiple regression techniques to find assessments of the relationships between Navy advertising expenditures and recruit contracts attained

  5. The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Bruce K.; Perry, John J.; Petkus, Marie

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the "U.S. News & World Report" "Best Colleges 2010" guide ("U.S. News & World Report" 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online…

  6. An Econometric Model for Forecasting Income and Employment in Hawaii.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chau, Laurence C.

    This report presents the methodology for short-run forecasting of personal income and employment in Hawaii. The econometric model developed in the study is used to make actual forecasts through 1973 of income and employment, with major components forecasted separately. Several sets of forecasts are made, under different assumptions on external…

  7. Impact of Disease Progression Date Determination on Progression-free Survival Estimates in Advanced Lung Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Qi, Yingwei; Ziegler, Allen; Katie, L.; Hillman, Shauna L.; Redman, Mary W.; Schild, Steven E.; Gandara, David R.; Adjei, Alex A.; Mandrekar, Sumithra J.

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE Progression-free survival (PFS) based endpoints are controversial; however in advanced lung cancer, overall survival is largely influenced by the progression status. We thus evaluated the impact of progression date (PD) determination approach on PFS estimates. METHODS Individual patient data from 21 trials (14 NCCTG; 7 SWOG) were used. Reported progression date (RPD) was defined as either the scan date or the clinical deterioration date. PD was determined using 4 methods (M): RPD (M1), one day after last progression-free scan (M2), midpoint between last progression-free scan and RPD (M3), and using an interval censoring approach (M4). PFS was estimated using Kaplan-Meier (M1, M2, M3), and maximum likelihood (M4). Simulation studies were performed to understand the impact of the length of time elapsed between the last progression-free scan and the PD on time to progression (TTP) estimates. RESULTS PFS estimates using RPD were the highest, with M2 being the most conservative. M3 and M4 were similar due to majority of progressions occurring during treatment (i.e., frequent disease assessments). M3 was less influenced by the length of the assessment schedules (%difference from true TTP <1.5%) compared to M1 (11% to 30%) and M2 (-8% to -29%). The overall study conclusion was unaffected by the method used for randomized trials. CONCLUSION The magnitude of difference in the PFS estimates is large enough to alter trial conclusions in advanced lung cancer. Standards for PD determination, use of sensitivity analyses, and randomized trials are critical when designing trials and reporting efficacy using PFS based endpoints. PMID:22434489

  8. Factors influencing crime rates: an econometric analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothos, John M. A.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

    2016-05-01

    The scope of the present study is to research the dynamics that determine the commission of crimes in the US society. Our study is part of a model we are developing to understand urban crime dynamics and to enhance citizens' "perception of security" in large urban environments. The main targets of our research are to highlight dependence of crime rates on certain social and economic factors and basic elements of state anticrime policies. In conducting our research, we use as guides previous relevant studies on crime dependence, that have been performed with similar quantitative analyses in mind, regarding the dependence of crime on certain social and economic factors using statistics and econometric modelling. Our first approach consists of conceptual state space dynamic cross-sectional econometric models that incorporate a feedback loop that describes crime as a feedback process. In order to define dynamically the model variables, we use statistical analysis on crime records and on records about social and economic conditions and policing characteristics (like police force and policing results - crime arrests), to determine their influence as independent variables on crime, as the dependent variable of our model. The econometric models we apply in this first approach are an exponential log linear model and a logit model. In a second approach, we try to study the evolvement of violent crime through time in the US, independently as an autonomous social phenomenon, using autoregressive and moving average time-series econometric models. Our findings show that there are certain social and economic characteristics that affect the formation of crime rates in the US, either positively or negatively. Furthermore, the results of our time-series econometric modelling show that violent crime, viewed solely and independently as a social phenomenon, correlates with previous years crime rates and depends on the social and economic environment's conditions during previous years.

  9. Basic parameter estimation of binary neutron star systems by the advanced LIGO/Vigro network

    SciTech Connect

    Rodriguez, Carl L.; Farr, Benjamin; Raymond, Vivien; Farr, Will M.; Littenberg, Tyson B.; Fazi, Diego; Kalogera, Vicky

    2014-04-01

    Within the next five years, it is expected that the Advanced LIGO/Virgo network will have reached a sensitivity sufficient to enable the routine detection of gravitational waves. Beyond the initial detection, the scientific promise of these instruments relies on the effectiveness of our physical parameter estimation capabilities. A major part of this effort has been toward the detection and characterization of gravitational waves from compact binary coalescence, e.g., the coalescence of binary neutron stars. While several previous studies have investigated the accuracy of parameter estimation with advanced detectors, the majority have relied on approximation techniques such as the Fisher Matrix which are insensitive to the non-Gaussian nature of the gravitational wave posterior distribution function. Here we report average statistical uncertainties that will be achievable for strong detection candidates (S/N = 20) over a comprehensive sample of source parameters. We use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo based parameter estimation software developed by the LIGO/Virgo Collaboration with the goal of updating the previously quoted Fisher Matrix bounds. We find the recovery of the individual masses to be fractionally within 9% (15%) at the 68% (95%) credible intervals for equal-mass systems, and within 1.9% (3.7%) for unequal-mass systems. We also find that the Advanced LIGO/Virgo network will constrain the locations of binary neutron star mergers to a median uncertainty of 5.1 deg{sup 2} (13.5 deg{sup 2}) on the sky. This region is improved to 2.3 deg{sup 2} (6 deg{sup 2}) with the addition of the proposed LIGO India detector to the network. We also report the average uncertainties on the luminosity distances and orbital inclinations of strong detections that can be achieved by different network configurations.

  10. Recent advances in statistical methods for the estimation of sediment and nutrient transport in rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colin, T. A.

    1995-07-01

    This paper reviews advances in methods for estimating fluvial transport of suspended sediment and nutrients. Research from the past four years, mostly dealing with estimating monthly and annual loads, is emphasized. However, because this topic has not appeared in previous IUGG reports, some research prior to 1990 is included. The motivation for studying sediment transport has shifted during the past few decades. In addition to its role in filling reservoirs and channels, sediment is increasingly recognized as an important part of fluvial ecosystems and estuarine wetlands. Many groups want information about sediment transport [Bollman, 1992]: Scientists trying to understand benthic biology and catchment hydrology; citizens and policy-makers concerned about environmental impacts (e.g. impacts of logging [Beschta, 1978] or snow-fences [Sturges, 1992]); government regulators considering the effectiveness of programs to protect in-stream habitat and downstream waterbodies; and resource managers seeking to restore wetlands.

  11. Robust quantitative parameter estimation by advanced CMP measurements for vadose zone hydrological studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koyama, C.; Wang, H.; Khuut, T.; Kawai, T.; Sato, M.

    2015-12-01

    Soil moisture plays a crucial role in the understanding of processes in the vadose zone hydrology. In the last two decades ground penetrating radar (GPR) has been widely discussed has nondestructive measurement technique for soil moisture data. Especially the common mid-point (CMP) technique, which has been used in both seismic and GPR surveys to investigate the vertical velocity profiles, has a very high potential for quantitaive obervsations from the root zone to the ground water aquifer. However, the use is still rather limited today and algorithms for robust quantitative paramter estimation are lacking. In this study we develop an advanced processing scheme for operational soil moisture reetrieval at various depth. Using improved signal processing, together with a semblance - non-normalized cross-correlation sum combined stacking approach and the Dix formula, the interval velocities for multiple soil layers are obtained from the RMS velocities allowing for more accurate estimation of the permittivity at the reflecting point. Where the presence of a water saturated layer, like a groundwater aquifer, can be easily identified by its RMS velocity due to the high contrast compared to the unsaturated zone. By using a new semi-automated measurement technique the acquisition time for a full CMP gather with 1 cm intervals along a 10 m profile can be reduced significantly to under 2 minutes. The method is tested and validated under laboratory conditions in a sand-pit as well as on agricultural fields and beach sand in the Sendai city area. Comparison between CMP estimates and TDR measurements yield a very good agreement with RMSE of 1.5 Vol.-%. The accuracy of depth estimation is validated with errors smaller than 2%. Finally, we demonstrate application of the method in a test site in semi-arid Mongolia, namely the Orkhon River catchment in Bulgan, using commercial 100 MHz and 500 MHz RAMAC GPR antennas. The results demonstrate the suitability of the proposed method for

  12. Why worry about awareness in choice problems? Econometric analysis of screening for cervical cancer.

    PubMed

    Belkar, Rochelle; Fiebig, Denzil G; Haas, Marion; Viney, Rosalie

    2006-01-01

    The decision to undertake a screening test is conditional upon awareness of screening. From an econometric perspective there is a potential selection problem, if no distinction is made between aware and unaware non-screeners. This paper explores this problem through analysis of the determinants of cervical screening in Australia. Cervical cancer is one of the most preventable and curable forms of cancer. Since 1991 there has been a concerted effort in Australia to recommend and encourage women to have Pap smears every two years. The success of this program can be partly gauged by exploring the determinants of screening for cervical cancer. Using unit record data from the 1995 National Health Survey, an econometric model is developed for whether women have ever screened or not. A proportion of women in the sample contend that they have never heard of a Pap test. The analysis characterizes this group of women and accounts for their presence in the modelling. The paper demonstrates failing to model awareness can result in inconsistent parameter estimates even when the degree of censoring in the sample is relatively small.

  13. Cost estimates for near-term depolyment of advanced traffic management systems. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Stevens, S.S.; Chin, S.M.

    1993-02-15

    The objective of this study is to provide cost est engineering, design, installation, operation and maintenance of Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) in the largest 75 metropolitan areas in the United States. This report gives estimates for deployment costs for ATMS in the next five years, subject to the qualifications and caveats set out in following paragraphs. The report considers infrastructure components required to realize fully a functional ATMS over each of two highway networks (as discussed in the Section describing our general assumptions) under each of the four architectures identified in the MITRE Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS) Architecture studies. The architectures are summarized in this report in Table 2. Estimates are given for eight combinations of highway networks and architectures. We estimate that it will cost between $8.5 Billion (minimal network) and $26 Billion (augmented network) to proceed immediately with deployment of ATMS in the largest 75 metropolitan areas. Costs are given in 1992 dollars, and are not adjusted for future inflation. Our estimates are based partially on completed project costs, which have been adjusted to 1992 dollars. We assume that a particular architecture will be chosen; projected costs are broken by architecture.

  14. TRAC-PF1: an advanced best-estimate computer program for pressurized water reactor analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Liles, D.R.; Mahaffy, J.H.

    1984-02-01

    The Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) is being developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory to provide advanced best-estimate predictions of postulated accidents in light water reactors. The TRAC-PF1 program provides this capability for pressurized water reactors and for many thermal-hydraulic experimental facilities. The code features either a one-dimensional or a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and its associated internals; a two-phase, two-fluid nonequilibrium hydrodynamics model with a noncondensable gas field; flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment; optional reflood tracking capability for both bottom flood and falling-film quench fronts; and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions. This report describes the thermal-hydraulic models and the numerical solution methods used in the code. Detailed programming and user information also are provided.

  15. Parameter Estimation for Binary Neutron-star Coalescences with Realistic Noise during the Advanced LIGO Era

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berry, Christopher P. L.; Mandel, Ilya; Middleton, Hannah; Singer, Leo P.; Urban, Alex L.; Vecchio, Alberto; Vitale, Salvatore; Cannon, Kipp; Farr, Ben; Farr, Will M.; Graff, Philip B.; Hanna, Chad; Haster, Carl-Johan; Mohapatra, Satya; Pankow, Chris; Price, Larry R.; Sidery, Trevor; Veitch, John

    2015-05-01

    Advanced ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors begin operation imminently. Their intended goal is not only to make the first direct detection of GWs, but also to make inferences about the source systems. Binary neutron-star mergers are among the most promising sources. We investigate the performance of the parameter-estimation (PE) pipeline that will be used during the first observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (aLIGO) in 2015: we concentrate on the ability to reconstruct the source location on the sky, but also consider the ability to measure masses and the distance. Accurate, rapid sky localization is necessary to alert electromagnetic (EM) observatories so that they can perform follow-up searches for counterpart transient events. We consider PE accuracy in the presence of non-stationary, non-Gaussian noise. We find that the character of the noise makes negligible difference to the PE performance at a given signal-to-noise ratio. The source luminosity distance can only be poorly constrained, since the median 90% (50%) credible interval scaled with respect to the true distance is 0.85 (0.38). However, the chirp mass is well measured. Our chirp-mass estimates are subject to systematic error because we used gravitational-waveform templates without component spin to carry out inference on signals with moderate spins, but the total error is typically less than {{10}-3} {{M}⊙ }. The median 90% (50%) credible region for sky localization is ˜ 600 {{deg }2} (˜ 150 {{deg }2}), with 3% (30%) of detected events localized within 100 {{deg }2}. Early aLIGO, with only two detectors, will have a sky-localization accuracy for binary neutron stars of hundreds of square degrees; this makes EM follow-up challenging, but not impossible.

  16. Estimating increases in outpatient dialysis costs resulting from scientific and technological advancement.

    PubMed

    Ozminkowski, R J; Hassol, A; Firkusny, I; Noether, M; Miles, M A; Newmann, J; Sharda, C; Guterman, S; Schmitz, R

    1995-04-01

    The Medicare program's base payment rate for outpatient dialysis services has never been adjusted for the effects of inflation, productivity changes, or scientific and technological advancement on the costs of treating patients with end-stage renal disease. In recognition of this, Congress asked the Prospective Payment Assessment Commission to annually recommend an adjustment to Medicare's base payment rate to dialysis facilities. One component of this adjustment addresses the cost-increasing effects of technological change--the scientific and technological advances (S&TA) component. The S&TA component is intended to encourage dialysis facilities to adopt technologies that, when applied appropriately, enhance the quality of patient care, even though they may also increase costs. We found the appropriate increase to the composite payment rate for Medicare outpatient dialysis services in fiscal year 1995 to vary from 0.18% to 2.18%. These estimates depend on whether one accounts for the lack of previous adjustments to the composite rate. Mathematically, the S&TA adjustment also depends on whether one considers the likelihood of missing some dialysis sessions because of illness or hospitalization. The S&TA estimates also allow for differences in the incremental costs of technological change that are based on the varying advice of experts in the dialysis industry. The major contributors to the cost of technological change in dialysis services are the use of twin-bag disconnect peritoneal dialysis systems, automated peritoneal dialysis cyclers, and the new generation of hemodialysis machines currently on the market. Factors beyond the control of dialysis facility personnel that influence the cost of patient care should be considered when payment rates are set, and those rates should be updated as market conditions change. The S&TA adjustment is one example of how the composite rate payment system for outpatient dialysis services can be modified to provide appropriate

  17. Evaluation of factors affecting prescribing behaviors, in iran pharmaceutical market by econometric methods.

    PubMed

    Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies.

  18. Cost estimates for advanced/innovative wind energy conversion systems /AWECS/

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobs, E. W.

    1981-12-01

    Three computer models for determining the economics of advanced wind energy conversion systems (AWECS) in production status are discussed. The SAMICS program, designed for estimating costs of production-line operations, includes details of expenses for a plant in steady-state operation, and yields results in terms of prices, quantities, and a breakdown of cost components. The PRICE model gives cost estimates for electromechanical hardware systems, and comprises design, manufacturing, and subassembly costs. The FAST program derives costs of energy systems in terms of construction and installation. All three models provide production costing, and it is noted that the FAST model can be used as an adjunct to the other two. Small WECS are viewed to become commercially viable at the 10,000 units/yr production level, using a one product job shop mode. Examples for existing 40 kW and 10 kW preproduction model SWECS are provided and a price lowering curve is generated which is similar to a learning curve.

  19. Fuel Distribution Estimate via Spin Period to Precession Period Ratio for the Advanced Composition Explorer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeHart, Russell; Smith, Eric; Lakin, John

    2015-01-01

    The spin period to precession period ratio of a non-axisymmetric spin-stabilized spacecraft, the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), was used to estimate the remaining mass and distribution of fuel within its propulsion system. This analysis was undertaken once telemetry suggested that two of the four fuel tanks had no propellant remaining, contrary to pre-launch expectations of the propulsion system performance. Numerical integration of possible fuel distributions was used to calculate moments of inertia for the spinning spacecraft. A Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of output from a dynamics simulation was employed to relate calculated moments of inertia to spin and precession periods. The resulting modeled ratios were compared to the actual spin period to precession period ratio derived from the effect of post-maneuver nutation angle on sun sensor measurements. A Monte Carlo search was performed to tune free parameters using the observed spin period to precession period ratio over the life of the mission. This novel analysis of spin and precession periods indicates that at the time of launch, propellant was distributed unevenly between the two pairs of fuel tanks, with one pair having approximately 20% more propellant than the other pair. Furthermore, it indicates the pair of the tanks with less fuel expelled all of its propellant by 2014 and that approximately 46 kg of propellant remains in the other two tanks, an amount that closely matches the operational fuel accounting estimate. Keywords: Fuel Distribution, Moments of Inertia, Precession, Spin, Nutation

  20. HIV prevalence and poverty in Africa: micro- and macro-econometric evidences applied to Burkina Faso.

    PubMed

    Lachaud, Jean-Pierre

    2007-05-01

    Based on the data of the Demographic and Health Survey, and of the Household Priority Survey, carried out in 2003, the present study, examining the factors of HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso, provides two conclusions. Firstly, the fight against poverty is not necessarily a means of reducing simultaneously and drastically HIV/AIDS prevalence, an assertion based on several elements of empirical analysis. First of all, the micro-econometric estimates of the probit models suggest a positive relationship between HIV prevalence in adult women and men, and living standards of individuals. Then, the macro-econometric approach reveals the existence of a positive (negative) relationship between, on the one hand, the level of regional HIV prevalence, and, on the other hand, the average monetary provincial standard of living (poverty) of households. At the same time, the relationship between HIV prevalence and poverty, apprehended at the regional level, is not linear. Secondly, and correlatively, the relationship between HIV prevalence and poverty is called into question. First of all, some structural factors may contribute to a distortion of the relationship between resources of households and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. This may be due, on the one hand, to the persistence of cognitive and behavioural factors inherent in a traditional society, and in particular, to the fact that the social construction of female attributes and roles confers to men a statute of "decision-makers" with regard to sexual intercourse, while the persistence of secular beliefs contributes to minimizing the perception of HIV/AIDS in terms of risk, independently of standards of living. In addition, the enclavement of Burkina Faso required development of road and railway traffic with neighbouring countries, in particular Côte d'Ivoire. Therefore, it may be that the structural conditions of the process of development of Burkina Faso, concomitant with significant flows of the exchange of goods, services

  1. Advance market commitments for vaccines against neglected diseases: estimating costs and effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Berndt, Ernst R; Glennerster, Rachel; Kremer, Michael R; Lee, Jean; Levine, Ruth; Weizsäcker, Georg; Williams, Heidi

    2007-05-01

    The G8 is considering committing to purchase vaccines against diseases concentrated in low-income countries (if and when desirable vaccines are developed) as a way to spur research and development on vaccines for these diseases. Under such an 'advance market commitment,' one or more sponsors would commit to a minimum price to be paid per person immunized for an eligible product, up to a certain number of individuals immunized. For additional purchases, the price would eventually drop to close to marginal cost. If no suitable product were developed, no payments would be made. We estimate the offer size which would make revenues similar to the revenues realized from investments in typical existing commercial pharmaceutical products, as well as the degree to which various model contracts and assumptions would affect the cost-effectiveness of such a commitment. We make adjustments for lower marketing costs under an advance market commitment and the risk that a developer may have to share the market with subsequent developers. We also show how this second risk could be reduced, and money saved, by introducing a superiority clause to a commitment. Under conservative assumptions, we document that a commitment comparable in value to sales earned by the average of a sample of recently launched commercial products (adjusted for lower marketing costs) would be a highly cost-effective way to address HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Sensitivity analyses suggest most characteristics of a hypothetical vaccine would have little effect on the cost-effectiveness, but that the duration of protection conferred by a vaccine strongly affects potential cost-effectiveness. Readers can conduct their own sensitivity analyses employing a web-based spreadsheet tool.

  2. Spatial econometrics functions in R: Classes and methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bivand, Roger

    Placing spatial econometrics and more generally spatial statistics in the context of an extensible data analysis environment such as R exposes similarities and differences between traditions of analysis. This can be fruitful, and is explored here in relation to prediction and other methods usually applied to fitted models in R. Objects in R may be assigned a class attribute, including fitted model objects. Such fitted model objects may be provided with methods allowing them to be displayed, compared, and used for prediction, and it is of interest to see whether fitted spatial models can be treated in the same way.

  3. State Labor Market Research Study: An Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Labor Subsidies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacRae, C. Duncan; And Others

    The report describes the construction, application, and theoretical implications of an econometric model depicting the effects of labor subsidies on the supply of workers in the U.S. Three papers deal with the following aspects of constructing the econometric model: (1) examination of equilibrium wages, employment, and earnings of primary and…

  4. Optimization of advanced Wiener estimation methods for Raman reconstruction from narrow-band measurements in the presence of fluorescence background.

    PubMed

    Chen, Shuo; Ong, Yi Hong; Lin, Xiaoqian; Liu, Quan

    2015-07-01

    Raman spectroscopy has shown great potential in biomedical applications. However, intrinsically weak Raman signals cause slow data acquisition especially in Raman imaging. This problem can be overcome by narrow-band Raman imaging followed by spectral reconstruction. Our previous study has shown that Raman spectra free of fluorescence background can be reconstructed from narrow-band Raman measurements using traditional Wiener estimation. However, fluorescence-free Raman spectra are only available from those sophisticated Raman setups capable of fluorescence suppression. The reconstruction of Raman spectra with fluorescence background from narrow-band measurements is much more challenging due to the significant variation in fluorescence background. In this study, two advanced Wiener estimation methods, i.e. modified Wiener estimation and sequential weighted Wiener estimation, were optimized to achieve this goal. Both spontaneous Raman spectra and surface enhanced Raman spectra were evaluated. Compared with traditional Wiener estimation, two advanced methods showed significant improvement in the reconstruction of spontaneous Raman spectra. However, traditional Wiener estimation can work as effectively as the advanced methods for SERS spectra but much faster. The wise selection of these methods would enable accurate Raman reconstruction in a simple Raman setup without the function of fluorescence suppression for fast Raman imaging.

  5. A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.

    PubMed

    Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R

    2007-09-01

    This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors).

  6. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology including advanced validation concepts to license evolving nuclear reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Unal, Cetin; Williams, Brian; Mc Clure, Patrick; Nelson, Ralph A

    2010-01-01

    Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for cost

  7. Advances in regional crop yield estimation over the United States using satellite remote sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, D. M.; Dorn, M. F.; Crawford, C.

    2015-12-01

    Since the dawn of earth observation imagery, particularly from systems like Landsat and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, there has been an overarching desire to regionally estimate crop production remotely. Research efforts integrating space-based imagery into yield models to achieve this need have indeed paralleled these systems through the years, yet development of a truly useful crop production monitoring system has been arguably mediocre in coming. As a result, relatively few organizations have yet to operationalize the concept, and this is most acute in regions of the globe where there are not even alternative sources of crop production data being collected. However, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has continued to push for this type of data source as a means to complement its long-standing, traditional crop production survey efforts which are financially costly to the government and create undue respondent burden on farmers. Corn and soybeans, the two largest field crops in the United States, have been the focus of satellite-based production monitoring by NASS for the past decade. Data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has been seen as the most pragmatic input source for modeling yields primarily based on its daily revisit capabilities and reasonable ground sample resolution. The research methods presented here will be broad but provides a summary of what is useful and adoptable with satellite imagery in terms of crop yield estimation. Corn and soybeans will be of particular focus but other major staple crops like wheat and rice will also be presented. NASS will demonstrate that while MODIS provides a slew of vegetation related products, the traditional normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is still ideal. Results using land surface temperature products, also generated from MODIS, will also be shown. Beyond the MODIS data itself, NASS research has also focused efforts on understanding a

  8. The core determinants of health expenditure in the African context: some econometric evidence for policy.

    PubMed

    Murthy, Vasudeva N R; Okunade, Albert A

    2009-06-01

    This paper, using cross-sectional data from 44 (83% of all) African countries for year 2001, presents econometric model estimates linking real per-capita health expenditure (HEXP) to a host of economic and non-economic factors. The empirical results of OLS and robust LAE estimators indicate that real per-capita GDP (PRGDP) and real per-capita foreign aid (FAID) resources are both core and statistically significant correlates of HEXP. Our empirical results suggest that health care in the African context is technically, a necessity rather than a luxury good (for the OECD countries). This suggests that the goal of health system in Africa is primarily 'physiological' or 'curative' rather than 'caring' or 'pampering'. The positive association of HEXP with FAID hints that external resource inflows targeting health could be instrumental for spurring economic progress in good policy environments. Most African countries until the late 1990s experienced economic and political instability, and faced stringent structural adjustment mandates of the major international financial institution lenders for economic development. Therefore, our finding a positive effect of FAID on HEXP could suggest that external resource inflows softened some of the macroeconomic fiscal deficit impacts on HEXP in the 2000s. Policy implications of country-specific elasticity estimates are given.

  9. Computationally intensive econometrics using a distributed matrix-programming language.

    PubMed

    Doornik, Jurgen A; Hendry, David F; Shephard, Neil

    2002-06-15

    This paper reviews the need for powerful computing facilities in econometrics, focusing on concrete problems which arise in financial economics and in macroeconomics. We argue that the profession is being held back by the lack of easy-to-use generic software which is able to exploit the availability of cheap clusters of distributed computers. Our response is to extend, in a number of directions, the well-known matrix-programming interpreted language Ox developed by the first author. We note three possible levels of extensions: (i) Ox with parallelization explicit in the Ox code; (ii) Ox with a parallelized run-time library; and (iii) Ox with a parallelized interpreter. This paper studies and implements the first case, emphasizing the need for deterministic computing in science. We give examples in the context of financial economics and time-series modelling.

  10. Interrelation of GDP and pension capital: Mathematical and econometrical analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nepp, A. N.; Dolgodvorov, A. D.

    2016-12-01

    This article is a mathematicalanalysis of the relationship between GDP and the development of funded pension systems. For this purpose, a mathematical formula was derived from the macro-economic GDP, proportional to the level of income and consumption for the dependence of GDP on the level of pension payments, the value of pension savings and the structure of compulsory contributions to the pension fund allocated to the distribution and accumulative pension system. A derivation of the equation proves the linear relationship of GDP and the share of pension contributions channeled to the funded pension system. Thus, the macroeconomic indicator with the larger negative impact on GDP was proven to be the elimination of the compulsory funded pension system. Based on the econometric analysis, the positive effect of the distributive pension system was proven on macroeconomic parameters.

  11. Development of advanced techniques for rotorcraft state estimation and parameter identification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, W. E., Jr.; Bohn, J. G.; Vincent, J. H.

    1980-01-01

    An integrated methodology for rotorcraft system identification consists of rotorcraft mathematical modeling, three distinct data processing steps, and a technique for designing inputs to improve the identifiability of the data. These elements are as follows: (1) a Kalman filter smoother algorithm which estimates states and sensor errors from error corrupted data. Gust time histories and statistics may also be estimated; (2) a model structure estimation algorithm for isolating a model which adequately explains the data; (3) a maximum likelihood algorithm for estimating the parameters and estimates for the variance of these estimates; and (4) an input design algorithm, based on a maximum likelihood approach, which provides inputs to improve the accuracy of parameter estimates. Each step is discussed with examples to both flight and simulated data cases.

  12. An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Travaglini, Guido

    2015-09-01

    Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

  13. Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue: a framework for the marriage of health econometrics and cost-effectiveness analysis.

    PubMed

    Hoch, Jeffrey S; Briggs, Andrew H; Willan, Andrew R

    2002-07-01

    Economic evaluation is often seen as a branch of health economics divorced from mainstream econometric techniques. Instead, it is perceived as relying on statistical methods for clinical trials. Furthermore, the statistic of interest in cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is not amenable to regression-based methods, hence the traditional reliance on comparing aggregate measures across the arms of a clinical trial. In this paper, we explore the potential for health economists undertaking cost-effectiveness analysis to exploit the plethora of established econometric techniques through the use of the net-benefit framework - a recently suggested reformulation of the cost-effectiveness problem that avoids the reliance on cost-effectiveness ratios and their associated statistical problems. This allows the formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem within a standard regression type framework. We provide an example with empirical data to illustrate how a regression type framework can enhance the net-benefit method. We go on to suggest that practical advantages of the net-benefit regression approach include being able to use established econometric techniques, adjust for imperfect randomisation, and identify important subgroups in order to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of an intervention.

  14. Analytical-numerical solution of a nonlinear integrodifferential equation in econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kakhktsyan, V. M.; Khachatryan, A. Kh.

    2013-07-01

    A mixed problem for a nonlinear integrodifferential equation arising in econometrics is considered. An analytical-numerical method is proposed for solving the problem. Some numerical results are presented.

  15. The econometric submodels of the Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model (EPSIM)

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, J.G.; Poyer, D.A.

    1994-04-01

    The Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model (EPSIM) is an econometric simulation model that runs on IBM-compatible personal computers. It can be used to assess the economic impact of energy policies and programs, such as utility rate designs and demand-side management programs, on various population groups, such as minority and low-income households. The econometric submodels that constitute the internal structure of EPSIM are described in detail.

  16. Statistical Cost Estimation in Higher Education: Some Alternatives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brinkman, Paul T.; Niwa, Shelley

    Recent developments in econometrics that are relevant to the task of estimating costs in higher education are reviewed. The relative effectiveness of alternative statistical procedures for estimating costs are also tested. Statistical cost estimation involves three basic parts: a model, a data set, and an estimation procedure. Actual data are used…

  17. Estimating crop production in Iowa from Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) data

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Indian National Remote Sensing Agency ResourceSat-1 Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) data for the USA is being provided online by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Arctic Slope Regional Corporation – Management Services (ASRC-MS). Because of the frequent revisit time and pixel sizes...

  18. Estimated Effect of the Teacher Advancement Program on Student Test Score Gains

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Springer, Matthew G.; Ballou, Dale; Peng, Art

    2014-01-01

    This article presents findings from the first independent, third-party appraisal of the impact of the Teacher Advancement Program (TAP) on student test score gains in mathematics. TAP is a comprehensive school reform model designed to attract highly effective teachers, improve instructional effectiveness, and elevate student achievement. We use a…

  19. Estimation of the monthly average daily solar radiation using geographic information system and advanced case-based reasoning.

    PubMed

    Koo, Choongwan; Hong, Taehoon; Lee, Minhyun; Park, Hyo Seon

    2013-05-07

    The photovoltaic (PV) system is considered an unlimited source of clean energy, whose amount of electricity generation changes according to the monthly average daily solar radiation (MADSR). It is revealed that the MADSR distribution in South Korea has very diverse patterns due to the country's climatic and geographical characteristics. This study aimed to develop a MADSR estimation model for the location without the measured MADSR data, using an advanced case based reasoning (CBR) model, which is a hybrid methodology combining CBR with artificial neural network, multiregression analysis, and genetic algorithm. The average prediction accuracy of the advanced CBR model was very high at 95.69%, and the standard deviation of the prediction accuracy was 3.67%, showing a significant improvement in prediction accuracy and consistency. A case study was conducted to verify the proposed model. The proposed model could be useful for owner or construction manager in charge of determining whether or not to introduce the PV system and where to install it. Also, it would benefit contractors in a competitive bidding process to accurately estimate the electricity generation of the PV system in advance and to conduct an economic and environmental feasibility study from the life cycle perspective.

  20. Recent advances in telemetry for estimating the energy metabolism of wild fishes.

    PubMed

    Metcalfe, J D; Wright, S; Tudorache, C; Wilson, R P

    2016-01-01

    Metabolic rate is a critical factor in animal biology and ecology, providing an objective measure that can be used in attributing a cost to different activities and to assessing what animals do against some optimal behaviour. Ideally, metabolic rate would be estimated directly by measuring heat output but, until recently, this has not been easily tractable with fishes so instead metabolic rate is usually estimated using indirect methods. In the laboratory, oxygen consumption rate is the indirect method most frequently used for estimating metabolic rate, but technical requirements preclude the measurement of either heat output or oxygen consumption rate in free-ranging fishes. There are other field methods for estimating metabolic rate that can be used with mammals and birds but, again, these cannot be used with fishes. Here, the use of electronic devices that record body acceleration in three dimensions (accelerometry) is considered. Accelerometry is a comparatively new telemetric method for assessing energy metabolism in animals. Correlations between dynamic body acceleration (DBA) and oxygen consumption rate demonstrate that this will be a useful proxy for estimating activity-specific energy expenditure from fishes in mesocosm or field studies over extended periods where other methods (e.g. oxygen consumption rate) are not feasible. DBA therefore has potential as a valuable tool for attributing cost to different activities. This could help in gaining a full picture of how fishes make energy-based trade-offs between different levels of activity when faced with conflicting or competing demands arising from increased and combined environmental stressors.

  1. Cardiac function estimation from MRI using a heart model and data assimilation: advances and difficulties.

    PubMed

    Sermesant, M; Moireau, P; Camara, O; Sainte-Marie, J; Andriantsimiavona, R; Cimrman, R; Hill, D L G; Chapelle, D; Razavi, R

    2006-08-01

    In this paper, we present a framework to estimate local ventricular myocardium contractility using clinical MRI, a heart model and data assimilation. First, we build a generic anatomical model of the ventricles including muscle fibre orientations and anatomical subdivisions. Then, this model is deformed to fit a clinical MRI, using a semi-automatic fuzzy segmentation, an affine registration method and a local deformable biomechanical model. An electromechanical model of the heart is then presented and simulated. Finally, a data assimilation procedure is described, and applied to this model. Data assimilation makes it possible to estimate local contractility from given displacements. Presented results on fitting to patient-specific anatomy and assimilation with simulated data are very promising. Current work on model calibration and estimation of patient parameters opens up possibilities to apply this framework in a clinical environment.

  2. [Advances on study of Lucilia species in estimating postmortem interval in forensic medicine].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Lu; Cai, Ji-feng

    2010-08-01

    Sarcosaphagous insects are very important to investigate some criminal cases. They are significant useful in estimating post-mortem interval (PMI) and corpse transfer post-mortem. Lucilia are very common sarcosaphagous insects. They like sunshine and are usually the earliest to touch the cadaver. These characteristics and others such as the stages of their larvae development can offer good evidences for criminal case investigation. This paper summarizes details of their application for estimating postmortem interval in recent years and reviews the methods to identify species and to determine the age of adult Lucilia with molecular biology and entomological morphology.

  3. Recent advances in applying Free Vortex Sheet theory to the estimation of vortex flow aerodynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luckring, J. M.; Schoonover, W. E., Jr.; Frink, N. T.

    1982-01-01

    Free Vortex Sheet theory has been applied to a variety of configurations for the estimation of three-dimensional pressure distributions for wings developing separation-induced leading-edge vortex flows. Correlations with experiment show reasonable estimates for the effects of compressibility, side-slip, side edges, swept-wing blast-induced loads, and leading-edge vortex flaps. Theoretical studies expand upon these correlations to show general aerodynamic trends. Consideration is also given to simple, yet effective techniques which expedite convergence and therefore reduce computational expense.

  4. Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2011-06-01

    Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

  5. Exploring the impact of Advanced LIGO transient noise on the estimation of astrophysical parameters of binary black hole coalescences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McIver, Jessica; LIGO Scientific Collaboration

    2017-01-01

    The Advanced LIGO detectors have unprecedented sensitivity to the spacetime strain induced by gravitational waves, but the interferometer data are non-stationary. Instrumental and environmental transient noise artifacts, or `glitches', occur frequently in the data and can mimic transient gravitational wave signals, including compact binary coalescences (CBCs). In addition to limiting the sensitivity of gravitational wave searches, in cases when astrophysical signals occur during or near periods of transient noise, this noise can also contaminate the estimation of the astrophysical parameters of CBC sources, such as spin, mass, and sky location. I will show the rate and common morphologies of transient noise in LIGO data and illustrate the impact of common classes of transient noise on the parameter estimation of observable binary black hole merger signals.

  6. An Advanced Model to Precisely Estimate the Cell-Free Fetal DNA Concentration in Maternal Plasma

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Huixin; Jiang, Haojun; Xie, Weiwei; Chen, Fang; Zeng, Peng; Li, Xuchao; Xie, Yifan; Liu, Hongtai; Huang, Guodong; Chen, Dayang; Liu, Ping; Jiang, Hui; Zhang, Xiuqing

    2016-01-01

    Background With the speedy development of sequencing technologies, noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT) has been widely applied in clinical practice for testing for fetal aneuploidy. The cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) concentration in maternal plasma is the most critical parameter for this technology because it affects the accuracy of NIPT-based sequencing for fetal trisomies 21, 18 and 13. Several approaches have been developed to calculate the cffDNA fraction of the total cell-free DNA in the maternal plasma. However, most approaches depend on specific single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) allele information or are restricted to male fetuses. Methods In this study, we present an innovative method to accurately deduce the concentration of the cffDNA fraction using only maternal plasma DNA. SNPs were classified into four maternal-fetal genotype combinations and three boundaries were added to capture effective SNP loci in which the mother was homozygous and the fetus was heterozygous. The median value of the concentration of the fetal DNA fraction was estimated using the effective SNPs. A depth-bias correction was performed using simulated data and corresponding regression equations for adjustments when the depth of the sequencing data was below 100-fold or the cffDNA fraction is less than 10%. Results Using our approach, the median of the relative bias was 0.4% in 18 maternal plasma samples with a median sequencing depth of 125-fold. There was a significant association (r = 0.935) between our estimations and the estimations inferred from the Y chromosome. Furthermore, this approach could precisely estimate a cffDNA fraction as low as 3%, using only maternal plasma DNA at the targeted region with a sequencing depth of 65-fold. We also used PCR instead of parallel sequencing to calculate the cffDNA fraction. There was a significant association (r = 98.2%) between our estimations and those inferred from the Y chromosome. PMID:27662469

  7. The frequency and mutation rate of balanced autosomal rearrangements in man estimated from prenatal genetic studies for advanced maternal age.

    PubMed Central

    Van Dyke, D L; Weiss, L; Roberson, J R; Babu, V R

    1983-01-01

    The frequencies of balanced chromosome rearrangements were estimated from three series of advanced maternal-age prenatal genetic studies, and were compared to the frequencies that had been estimated from consecutive newborn surveys. In the maternal-age prenatal studies, the frequencies were: Robertsonian translocations, 0.11%; reciprocal translocations, 0.17%; and inversions, 0.12%. The total frequency of balanced rearrangements in the prenatal genetic studies performed with banding (0.40%, or 1 in 250) was twice that in the consecutive newborn surveys performed without banding (0.19%, or 1 in 526). The difference was limited to inversions and reciprocal translocations; the frequency of Robertsonian translocations was similar in the prenatal series and the newborn surveys. Both familial and de novo rearrangements were more common than anticipated. The de novo cases provided a mutation rate estimate of 4.3 per 10,000 gametes per generation (compared with 1.78 to 2.2 per 10,000 gametes in other surveys). These higher estimates may more reliably approximate the true mutation rate and frequencies of balanced rearrangements in the newborn population than do the newborn surveys. PMID:6837576

  8. The burden of disease from air pollution in Israel: How do we use burden estimates to advance public health?

    PubMed

    Samet, Jonathan M

    2016-01-01

    In an article recently published in the IJHPR, Ginsberg and colleagues from Israel's Public Health Services estimate the disease burden from airborne particulate matter in Israel. Using national data on the concentration of PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) and risk estimates from meta-analyses, they calculate that about 2000 deaths (4.7% of total deaths) are attributable to air pollution. Although inherently subject to uncertainty, such estimates are useful for motivating public health protection and gauging the stringency of any needed regulations. However, Israel does not yet have an evidence-based process for air quality regulation comparable to that of the United States, which has evolved over the 45 years since passage of the Clean Air Act. In fact, Israel has only recently promulgated a national standard for airborne particulate matter and quantitative risk assessment has not been an element of regulatory decision-making. The report by Ginsberg and colleagues represents a useful beginning and should initiate discussion of the role of burden estimation and risk assessment more broadly in regulations intended to advance environmental health in Israel.

  9. Capital cost estimates of selected advanced thermal energy storage technologies. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Lawrence, W.T.

    1980-06-01

    A method for evaluating the first cost of diverse advances TES concepts on a common basis is presented. For a total sample of at least 20 baseline and advanced TES technologies, the methodology developed was to be applied in the calculation of actual cost and performance measures. Work on the development of TES has focused on 5 types of application areas: electric power generation, with solar input in which TES is used to store energy for use during cloudy periods or at night; conventional fuel-fired electric power generation, in which TES is used to improve load factors; cyclic losses, in which TES is used to reduce losses that occur when devices start and stop; batch losses, in which TES is used to recover waste heat; and source/sink mismatch, in which TES is used to increase the efficiency of processes that are dependent upon ambient temperatures. Chapter 2 defines reference operating characteristics; Chapter 2 gives the costing methodology; Chapter 4 describes the system; Chapter 5 describes the baseline systems; Chapter 6 analyzes the effect of input-storage-temperature requirements on solar-collector-hardware costs and the input-temperature requirements of off-peak electric-storage systems on compressor operating costs; and in Chapter 7, the effects of chemical heat pump COP and collector temperature on storage size and collector area are considered. (MCW)

  10. Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Rong; Duan, Wansuo; Mu, Mu

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we explored potential observing locations (i.e., the sensitive areas) of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events to advance beyond the winter predictability barrier (WPB) using the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory climate model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1). The sensitivity analysis is conducted through perfect model predictability experiments, in which the model is assumed to be perfect and so any prediction errors are caused by initial errors. The results show that the initial errors with an east-west dipole pattern are more likely to result in a significant WPB than spatially correlated noises; the areas where the large values of the dipole pattern initial errors are located have great effects on prediction uncertainties in winter and provide useful information regarding the sensitive areas. Further, the prediction uncertainties in winter are more sensitive to the initial errors in the subsurface large value areas than to those in the surface large value areas. The results indicate that the subsurface large value areas are sensitive areas for advancing beyond the WPB of IOD predictions and if we carry out intensive observations across these areas, the prediction errors in winter may be largely reduced. This will lead to large improvements in the skill of wintertime IOD event forecasts.

  11. Estimation of 1D proximity budget impacts due to light source for advanced node design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, R. C.; Wu, Tony; Liu, H. H.

    2014-03-01

    The laser impacts on the proximity error are well known in many previous studies and papers. The proximity budget control is more and more important for advanced node design. The goal of this paper is to describe the laser spectral bandwidth and wavelength stability contributions to the proximity budget by considering general line/space and trench pattern design. We performed experiments and modeled the photolithography response using Panoramic Technology HyperLith simulation over a range of laser bandwidth and wavelength stability conditions to quantify the long term and short term stability contributions on wafer-to-wafer and field-to-field proximity variation. Finally, we determine the requirements for current system performance to meet patterning requirements and minimize the laser contribution on proximity error and within 4% of target CD Critical Dimension Uniformity (CDU) budget process requirement [2]. This paper also discusses how the wafer lithography drivers are enabled by ArFi light source technologies.

  12. Radionuclide Emission Estimation for the Center for Advanced Energy Studies (CAES)

    SciTech Connect

    Bradley J Schrader

    2010-02-01

    An Radiological Safety Analysis Computer Program (RSAC)-7 model dose assessment was performed to evaluate maximum Center for Advanced Energy Studies (CAES) boundary effective dose equivalent (EDE, in mrem/yr) for potential individual releases of radionuclides from the facility. The CAES is a public/private partnership between the State of Idaho and its academic research institutions, the federal government through the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) managed by the Battelle Energy Alliance (BEA). CAES serves to advance energy security for our nation by expanding educational opportunities at Idaho universities in energy-related areas, creating new capabilities within its member institutions, and delivering technological innovations leading to technology-based economic development for the intermountain region. CAES has developed a strategic plan (INL/EXT-07-12950) based on the balanced scorecard approach. At the present time it is unknown exactly what processes will be used in the facility in support of this strategic plan. What is known is that the Idaho State University (ISU) Radioactive Materials License (Nuclear Regulatory Commission [NRC] license 11-27380-01) is the basis for handling radioactive material in the facility. The material in this license is shared between the ISU campus and the CAES facility. There currently are no agreements in place to limit the amount of radioactive material at the CAES facility or what is done to the material in the facility. The scope of this analysis is a summary look at the basis dose for each radionuclide included under the license at a distance of 100, 500, and 1,000 m. Inhalation, ingestion and ground surface dose was evaluated using the NRC design basis guidelines. The results can be used to determine a sum of the fractions approach to facility safety. This sum of the fractions allows a facility threshold value (TV) to be established and potential activities to be evaluated against

  13. Recent advances and on-going challenges of estimating past elevation from climate proxy data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snell, K. E.; Peppe, D. J.; Eiler, J. M.; Wernicke, B. P.; Koch, P. L.

    2012-12-01

    The methods currently available to reconstruct paleoelevation dominantly rely on diverse sedimentary archives of past climate. The spatial and temporal distributions of these records are used to extract information about differences in elevation from site to site, and through geologic time. As such, our understanding of past elevations is only as good as our ability to understand past climate and to put these records into a reasonable chronologic framework. Currently, most techniques either exploit the difference in temperature or the difference in the hydrogen and/or oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation between high and low elevation sites. Temperature data dominantly come from leaf margin analysis of fossil plants; biomarkers preserved in sediments; and clumped isotope thermometry of paleosol and lacustrine carbonates and carbonate cements. Constraints on the isotopic composition of precipitation come from many of the same sedimentary archives: paleosol and lacustrine carbonates, carbonate cements and authigenic clays. Reconstructed gradients in temperature and isotopic composition are then compared with modern "lapse rates" to translate climate proxy data into elevation estimates. There are still many challenges in reconstructing past elevations from paleoclimate proxy data in this way. For example, modern lapse rates are generally empirical rather than based on thermodynamic principles alone, and so may vary for reasons that are not always understood. In addition, unrecognized differences in seasonal bias for the different sedimentary archives can lead to inaccurately averaged records and/or over-estimates of errors in each method. Finally, to appropriately estimate elevation, the effects of climate change must be accounted for by matching inferred high-elevation sites with known low-elevation sites of similar age and geographic location. This requires excellent chronologic control and correlation across terrestrial basins (or independent knowledge of

  14. Advances in the regionalization approach: geostatistical techniques for estimating flood quantiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiarello, Valentina; Caporali, Enrica; Matthies, Hermann G.

    2015-04-01

    The knowledge of peak flow discharges and associated floods is of primary importance in engineering practice for planning of water resources and risk assessment. Streamflow characteristics are usually estimated starting from measurements of river discharges at stream gauging stations. However, the lack of observations at site of interest as well as the measurement inaccuracies, bring inevitably to the necessity of developing predictive models. Regional analysis is a classical approach to estimate river flow characteristics at sites where little or no data exists. Specific techniques are needed to regionalize the hydrological variables over the considered area. Top-kriging or topological kriging, is a kriging interpolation procedure that takes into account the geometric organization and structure of hydrographic network, the catchment area and the nested nature of catchments. The continuous processes in space defined for the point variables are represented by a variogram. In Top-kriging, the measurements are not point values but are defined over a non-zero catchment area. Top-kriging is applied here over the geographical space of Tuscany Region, in Central Italy. The analysis is carried out on the discharge data of 57 consistent runoff gauges, recorded from 1923 to 2014. Top-kriging give also an estimation of the prediction uncertainty in addition to the prediction itself. The results are validated using a cross-validation procedure implemented in the package rtop of the open source statistical environment R The results are compared through different error measurement methods. Top-kriging seems to perform better in nested catchments and larger scale catchments but no for headwater or where there is a high variability for neighbouring catchments.

  15. Large-scale Advanced Propfan (LAP) performance, acoustic and weight estimation, January, 1984

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parzych, D.; Shenkman, A.; Cohen, S.

    1985-01-01

    In comparison to turbo-prop applications, the Prop-Fan is designed to operate in a significantly higher range of aircraft flight speeds. Two concerns arise regarding operation at very high speeds: aerodynamic performance and noise generation. This data package covers both topics over a broad range of operating conditions for the eight (8) bladed SR-7L Prop-Fan. Operating conditions covered are: Flight Mach Number 0 - 0.85; blade tip speed 600-800 ft/sec; and cruise power loading 20-40 SHP/D2. Prop-Fan weight and weight scaling estimates are also included.

  16. An advanced shape-fitting algorithm applied to quadrupedal mammals: improving volumetric mass estimates

    PubMed Central

    Brassey, Charlotte A.; Gardiner, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Body mass is a fundamental physical property of an individual and has enormous bearing upon ecology and physiology. Generating reliable estimates for body mass is therefore a necessary step in many palaeontological studies. Whilst early reconstructions of mass in extinct species relied upon isolated skeletal elements, volumetric techniques are increasingly applied to fossils when skeletal completeness allows. We apply a new ‘alpha shapes’ (α-shapes) algorithm to volumetric mass estimation in quadrupedal mammals. α-shapes are defined by: (i) the underlying skeletal structure to which they are fitted; and (ii) the value α, determining the refinement of fit. For a given skeleton, a range of α-shapes may be fitted around the individual, spanning from very coarse to very fine. We fit α-shapes to three-dimensional models of extant mammals and calculate volumes, which are regressed against mass to generate predictive equations. Our optimal model is characterized by a high correlation coefficient and mean square error (r2=0.975, m.s.e.=0.025). When applied to the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) and giant ground sloth (Megatherium americanum), we reconstruct masses of 3635 and 3706 kg, respectively. We consider α-shapes an improvement upon previous techniques as resulting volumes are less sensitive to uncertainties in skeletal reconstructions, and do not require manual separation of body segments from skeletons. PMID:26361559

  17. An advanced shape-fitting algorithm applied to quadrupedal mammals: improving volumetric mass estimates.

    PubMed

    Brassey, Charlotte A; Gardiner, James D

    2015-08-01

    Body mass is a fundamental physical property of an individual and has enormous bearing upon ecology and physiology. Generating reliable estimates for body mass is therefore a necessary step in many palaeontological studies. Whilst early reconstructions of mass in extinct species relied upon isolated skeletal elements, volumetric techniques are increasingly applied to fossils when skeletal completeness allows. We apply a new 'alpha shapes' (α-shapes) algorithm to volumetric mass estimation in quadrupedal mammals. α-shapes are defined by: (i) the underlying skeletal structure to which they are fitted; and (ii) the value α, determining the refinement of fit. For a given skeleton, a range of α-shapes may be fitted around the individual, spanning from very coarse to very fine. We fit α-shapes to three-dimensional models of extant mammals and calculate volumes, which are regressed against mass to generate predictive equations. Our optimal model is characterized by a high correlation coefficient and mean square error (r (2)=0.975, m.s.e.=0.025). When applied to the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) and giant ground sloth (Megatherium americanum), we reconstruct masses of 3635 and 3706 kg, respectively. We consider α-shapes an improvement upon previous techniques as resulting volumes are less sensitive to uncertainties in skeletal reconstructions, and do not require manual separation of body segments from skeletons.

  18. Advanced transportation system studies technical area 2 (TA-2): Heavy lift launch vehicle development. volume 3; Program Cost estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCurry, J. B.

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of the TA-2 contract was to provide advanced launch vehicle concept definition and analysis to assist NASA in the identification of future launch vehicle requirements. Contracted analysis activities included vehicle sizing and performance analysis, subsystem concept definition, propulsion subsystem definition (foreign and domestic), ground operations and facilities analysis, and life cycle cost estimation. The basic period of performance of the TA-2 contract was from May 1992 through May 1993. No-cost extensions were exercised on the contract from June 1993 through July 1995. This document is part of the final report for the TA-2 contract. The final report consists of three volumes: Volume 1 is the Executive Summary, Volume 2 is Technical Results, and Volume 3 is Program Cost Estimates. The document-at-hand, Volume 3, provides a work breakdown structure dictionary, user's guide for the parametric life cycle cost estimation tool, and final report developed by ECON, Inc., under subcontract to Lockheed Martin on TA-2 for the analysis of heavy lift launch vehicle concepts.

  19. On Advanced Estimation Techniques for Exoplanet Detection and Characterization Using Ground-based Coronagraphs

    PubMed Central

    Lawson, Peter R.; Poyneer, Lisa; Barrett, Harrison; Frazin, Richard; Caucci, Luca; Devaney, Nicholas; Furenlid, Lars; Gładysz, Szymon; Guyon, Olivier; Krist, John; Maire, Jérôme; Marois, Christian; Mawet, Dimitri; Mouillet, David; Mugnier, Laurent; Pearson, Iain; Perrin, Marshall; Pueyo, Laurent; Savransky, Dmitry

    2015-01-01

    The direct imaging of planets around nearby stars is exceedingly difficult. Only about 14 exoplanets have been imaged to date that have masses less than 13 times that of Jupiter. The next generation of planet-finding coronagraphs, including VLT-SPHERE, the Gemini Planet Imager, Palomar P1640, and Subaru HiCIAO have predicted contrast performance of roughly a thousand times less than would be needed to detect Earth-like planets. In this paper we review the state of the art in exoplanet imaging, most notably the method of Locally Optimized Combination of Images (LOCI), and we investigate the potential of improving the detectability of faint exoplanets through the use of advanced statistical methods based on the concepts of the ideal observer and the Hotelling observer. We propose a formal comparison of techniques using a blind data challenge with an evaluation of performance using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Localization ROC (LROC) curves. We place particular emphasis on the understanding and modeling of realistic sources of measurement noise in ground-based AO-corrected coronagraphs. The work reported in this paper is the result of interactions between the co-authors during a week-long workshop on exoplanet imaging that was held in Squaw Valley, California, in March of 2012. PMID:26347393

  20. On Advanced Estimation Techniques for Exoplanet Detection and Characterization Using Ground-based Coronagraphs.

    PubMed

    Lawson, Peter R; Poyneer, Lisa; Barrett, Harrison; Frazin, Richard; Caucci, Luca; Devaney, Nicholas; Furenlid, Lars; Gładysz, Szymon; Guyon, Olivier; Krist, John; Maire, Jérôme; Marois, Christian; Mawet, Dimitri; Mouillet, David; Mugnier, Laurent; Pearson, Iain; Perrin, Marshall; Pueyo, Laurent; Savransky, Dmitry

    2012-07-01

    The direct imaging of planets around nearby stars is exceedingly difficult. Only about 14 exoplanets have been imaged to date that have masses less than 13 times that of Jupiter. The next generation of planet-finding coronagraphs, including VLT-SPHERE, the Gemini Planet Imager, Palomar P1640, and Subaru HiCIAO have predicted contrast performance of roughly a thousand times less than would be needed to detect Earth-like planets. In this paper we review the state of the art in exoplanet imaging, most notably the method of Locally Optimized Combination of Images (LOCI), and we investigate the potential of improving the detectability of faint exoplanets through the use of advanced statistical methods based on the concepts of the ideal observer and the Hotelling observer. We propose a formal comparison of techniques using a blind data challenge with an evaluation of performance using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Localization ROC (LROC) curves. We place particular emphasis on the understanding and modeling of realistic sources of measurement noise in ground-based AO-corrected coronagraphs. The work reported in this paper is the result of interactions between the co-authors during a week-long workshop on exoplanet imaging that was held in Squaw Valley, California, in March of 2012.

  1. On Advanced Estimation Techniques for Exoplanet Detection and Characterization using Ground-Based Coronagraphs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawson, Peter R.; Frazin, Richard; Barrett, Harrison; Caucci, Luca; Devaney, Nicholas; Furenlid, Lars; Gladysz, Szymon; Guyon, Olivier; Krist, John; Maire, Jerome; Marois, Christian; Mawet, Dimitri; Mouillet, David; Mugnier, Laurent; Perrin, Marshall; Poyneer, Lisa; Pueyo, Laurent; Savransky, Dmitry; Soummer, Remi

    2012-01-01

    The direct imaging of planets around nearby stars is exceedingly difficult. Only about 14 exoplanets have been imaged to date that have masses less than 13 times that of Jupiter. The next generation of planet-finding coronagraphs, including VLT-SPHERE, the Gemini Planet Imager, Palomar P1640, and Subaru HiCIAO have predicted contrast performance of roughly a thousand times less than would be needed to detect Earth-like planets. In this paper we review the state of the art in exoplanet imaging, most notably the method of Locally Optimized Combination of Images (LOCI), and we investigate the potential of improving the detectability of faint exoplanets through the use of advanced statistical methods based on the concepts of the ideal observer and the Hotelling observer. We provide a formal comparison of techniques through a blind data challenge and evaluate performance using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Localization ROC (LROC) curves. We place particular emphasis on the understanding and modeling of realistic sources of measurement noise in ground-based AO-corrected coronagraphs. The work reported in this paper is the result of interactions between the co-authors during a week-long workshop on exoplanet imaging that was held in Squaw Valley, California, in March of 2012.

  2. On Advanced Estimation Techniques for Exoplanet Detection and Characterization using Ground-based Coronagraphs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawson, Peter; Frazin, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The direct imaging of planets around nearby stars is exceedingly difficult. Only about 14 exoplanets have been imaged to date that have masses less than 13 times that of Jupiter. The next generation of planet-finding coronagraphs, including VLT-SPHERE, the Gemini Planet Imager, Palomar P1640, and Subaru HiCIAO have predicted contrast performance of roughly a thousand times less than would be needed to detect Earth-like planets. In this paper we review the state of the art in exoplanet imaging, most notably the method of Locally Optimized Combination of Images (LOCI), and we investigate the potential of improving the detectability of faint exoplanets through the use of advanced statistical methods based on the concepts of the ideal observer and the Hotelling observer. We propose a formal comparison of techniques using a blind data challenge with an evaluation of performance using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Localization ROC (LROC) curves. We place particular emphasis on the understanding and modeling of realistic sources of measurement noise in ground-based AO-corrected coronagraphs. The work reported in this paper is the result of interactions between the co-authors during a week-long workshop on exoplanet imaging that was held in Squaw Valley, California, in March of 2012

  3. On advanced estimation techniques for exoplanet detection and characterization using ground-based coronagraphs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawson, Peter R.; Poyneer, Lisa; Barrett, Harrison; Frazin, Richard; Caucci, Luca; Devaney, Nicholas; Furenlid, Lars; Gładysz, Szymon; Guyon, Olivier; Krist, John; Maire, Jérôme; Marois, Christian; Mawet, Dimitri; Mouillet, David; Mugnier, Laurent; Pearson, Iain; Perrin, Marshall; Pueyo, Laurent; Savransky, Dmitry

    2012-07-01

    The direct imaging of planets around nearby stars is exceedingly difficult. Only about 14 exoplanets have been imaged to date that have masses less than 13 times that of Jupiter. The next generation of planet-finding coronagraphs, including VLT-SPHERE, the Gemini Planet Imager, Palomar P1640, and Subaru HiCIAO have predicted contrast performance of roughly a thousand times less than would be needed to detect Earth-like planets. In this paper we review the state of the art in exoplanet imaging, most notably the method of Locally Optimized Combination of Images (LOCI), and we investigate the potential of improving the detectability of faint exoplanets through the use of advanced statistical methods based on the concepts of the ideal observer and the Hotelling observer. We propose a formal comparison of techniques using a blind data challenge with an evaluation of performance using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Localization ROC (LROC) curves. We place particular emphasis on the understanding and modeling of realistic sources of measurement noise in ground-based AO-corrected coronagraphs. The work reported in this paper is the result of interactions between the co-authors during a week-long workshop on exoplanet imaging that was held in Squaw Valley, California, in March of 2012.

  4. Some advance on the comprehension of SR analysis for estimating the flux of a scalar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castellví, Dr

    2009-04-01

    In agronomy, the eddy covariance, EC, method likely is the preferred for measuring surface scalar fluxes. For latent heat flux, however, weighing lysimeters maybe preferred in agriculture, but they are rarely affordable and not portable. The dissipation method, DM, is considered the most reliable technique for measuring scalar fluxes over open water because instrument motion contaminates the EC measurements. The main advantage of DM over EC is that it is less sensitive to low frequency instrument platform motions (such as ship and buoys), sensor alignment, precise orientation and stringent steadiness in the mean meteorological conditions (Fairall and Larsen, 1986; Kader, 1992; Edson and Fairall, 1998). Over land, keeping in mind that the EC and DM methods require the same measurements for scalar flux measurement, the DM has several disadvantages versus the EC. Direct measurement of the scalar variance dissipation rate, VDR, requires to capture eddies in the Kolmogorov's microscale (thus scalar time series measured at frequencies in the order of kHz are needed). Therefore, it is not practical. Indirect methods to estimate VDR (such as spectral analysis and second or third order structure functions) requires implementing iterative methods involving similarity relationships that are not well established (Hsieh and Katul, 1997; Castellvi and Snyder, 2008). Currently, there is ample evidence that the DM as explained in traditional micrometeorological books (such as, Panofsky and Dutton, 1984; Brutsaert, 1988; Kaimal and Finnigan; 1994) is, in general, not correct. Accordingly, it likely explains why DM is typically omitted in revisits of micrometeorological methods for estimating scalar fluxes in agronomy. Within the last decade, over some agricultural surfaces, evidence has been shown on the advantages over other micrometeorological methods and the reliability (i.e., close performance to the EC method) of Surface Renewal, SR, theory in conjunction with the Analysis of

  5. Hydro-meteorological Inverse Problems via Sparse Regularization: Advanced frameworks for rainfall spaceborne estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebtehaj, Mohammad

    The past decades have witnessed a remarkable emergence of new spaceborne and ground-based sources of multiscale remotely sensed geophysical data. Apart from applications related to the study of short-term climatic shifts, availability of these sources of information has improved dramatically our real-time hydro-meteorological forecast skills. Obtaining improved estimates of hydro-meteorological states from a single or multiple low-resolution observations and assimilating them into the background knowledge of a prognostic model have been a subject of growing research in the past decades. In this thesis, with particular emphasis on precipitation data, statistical structure of rainfall images have been thoroughly studied in transform domains (i.e., Fourier and Wavelet). It is mainly found that despite different underlying physical structure of storm events, there are general statistical signatures that can be robustly characterized and exploited as a prior knowledge for solving hydro-meteorological inverse problems such rainfall downscaling, data fusion, retrieval and data assimilation. In particular, it is observed that in the wavelet domain or derivative space, rainfall images are sparse. In other words, a large number of the rainfall expansion coefficients are very close to zero and only a small number of them are significantly non-zero, a manifestation of the non-Gaussian probabilistic structure of rainfall data. To explain this signature, relevant family of probability models including Generalized Gaussian Density (GGD) and a specific class of conditionally linear Gaussian Scale Mixtures (GSM) are studied. Capitalizing on this important but overlooked property of precipitation, new methodologies are proposed to optimally integrate and improve resolution of spaceborne and ground-based precipitation data. In particular, a unified framework is proposed that ties together the problems of downscaling, data fusion and data assimilation via a regularized variational

  6. Advanced methods for depth-to-basement estimation using gravity, magnetic, and electromagnetic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Hongzhu

    There is a strong interest in developing effective methods to estimate the depth-to-basement. Potential field methods have already been widely used in this application by parameterizing the earth's subsurface into 3D cells. I introduce a new method of solving this problem based on the 3D Cauchy-type integral (CTI) method which makes it possible to represent the potential fields as surface integrals and the density or magnetization contrast surface needs to be discretized only for the calculation of the potential fields. Another significant objective is the development of a novel method for inversion of potential field data to recover the depth-to-basement using 3D Cauchy-type integral representation. Numerical studies show that the new method is much faster than the conventional method to compute the potential field. My synthetic model studies also show that the developed inversion algorithm is capable of recovering the geometry and depth of a sedimentary basin effectively with a complex density profile in the vertical direction. By nature, the recovered model from potential field inversion is usually very diffusive. Under these circumstances, one has to consider some other geophysical methods, such as electromagnetic (especially the magnetotelluric) methods, which have higher resolution and acceptable exploration cost. Conventional inversion of magnetotelluric (MT) data is aimed at determining the volumetric conductivity distribution. This dissertation develops a novel approach to 3D MT inversion for the depth-to-basement estimation. The key to this approach is selection of the depth-to-basement being the major unknown parameter. The inversion algorithm recovers both the thickness and the conductivities of a sedimentary basin. The sediment-basement interface is usually characterized by density, magnetization, and electrical conductivity contrasts. This makes realistic the joint inversion of potential field and MT data to recover the depth-to-basement. I have

  7. Advances in Assimilation of Satellite-Based Passive Microwave Observations for Soil-Moisture Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Pauwels, Valentijn; Reichle, Rolf H.; Draper, Clara; Koster, Randy; Liu, Qing

    2012-01-01

    Satellite-based microwave measurements have long shown potential to provide global information about soil moisture. The European Space Agency (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS, [1]) mission as well as the future National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP, [2]) mission measure passive microwave emission at L-band frequencies, at a relatively coarse (40 km) spatial resolution. In addition, SMAP will measure active microwave signals at a higher spatial resolution (3 km). These new L-band missions have a greater sensing depth (of -5cm) compared with past and present C- and X-band microwave sensors. ESA currently also disseminates retrievals of SMOS surface soil moisture that are derived from SMOS brightness temperature observations and ancillary data. In this research, we address two major challenges with the assimilation of recent/future satellite-based microwave measurements: (i) assimilation of soil moisture retrievals versus brightness temperatures for surface and root-zone soil moisture estimation and (ii) scale-mismatches between satellite observations, models and in situ validation data.

  8. Some advance on the comprehension of SR analysis for estimating the flux of a scalar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castellví, Dr

    2009-04-01

    In agronomy, the eddy covariance, EC, method likely is the preferred for measuring surface scalar fluxes. For latent heat flux, however, weighing lysimeters maybe preferred in agriculture, but they are rarely affordable and not portable. The dissipation method, DM, is considered the most reliable technique for measuring scalar fluxes over open water because instrument motion contaminates the EC measurements. The main advantage of DM over EC is that it is less sensitive to low frequency instrument platform motions (such as ship and buoys), sensor alignment, precise orientation and stringent steadiness in the mean meteorological conditions (Fairall and Larsen, 1986; Kader, 1992; Edson and Fairall, 1998). Over land, keeping in mind that the EC and DM methods require the same measurements for scalar flux measurement, the DM has several disadvantages versus the EC. Direct measurement of the scalar variance dissipation rate, VDR, requires to capture eddies in the Kolmogorov's microscale (thus scalar time series measured at frequencies in the order of kHz are needed). Therefore, it is not practical. Indirect methods to estimate VDR (such as spectral analysis and second or third order structure functions) requires implementing iterative methods involving similarity relationships that are not well established (Hsieh and Katul, 1997; Castellvi and Snyder, 2008). Currently, there is ample evidence that the DM as explained in traditional micrometeorological books (such as, Panofsky and Dutton, 1984; Brutsaert, 1988; Kaimal and Finnigan; 1994) is, in general, not correct. Accordingly, it likely explains why DM is typically omitted in revisits of micrometeorological methods for estimating scalar fluxes in agronomy. Within the last decade, over some agricultural surfaces, evidence has been shown on the advantages over other micrometeorological methods and the reliability (i.e., close performance to the EC method) of Surface Renewal, SR, theory in conjunction with the Analysis of

  9. Point process modeling and estimation: Advances in the analysis of dynamic neural spiking data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Xinyi

    A common interest of scientists in many fields is to understand the relationship between the dynamics of a physical system and the occurrences of discrete events within such physical system. Seismologists study the connection between mechanical vibrations of the Earth and the occurrences of earthquakes so that future earthquakes can be better predicted. Astrophysicists study the association between the oscillating energy of celestial regions and the emission of photons to learn the Universe's various objects and their interactions. Neuroscientists study the link between behavior and the millisecond-timescale spike patterns of neurons to understand higher brain functions. Such relationships can often be formulated within the framework of state-space models with point process observations. The basic idea is that the dynamics of the physical systems are driven by the dynamics of some stochastic state variables and the discrete events we observe in an interval are noisy observations with distributions determined by the state variables. This thesis proposes several new methodological developments that advance the framework of state-space models with point process observations at the intersection of statistics and neuroscience. In particular, we develop new methods 1) to characterize the rhythmic spiking activity using history-dependent structure, 2) to model population spike activity using marked point process models, 3) to allow for real-time decision making, and 4) to take into account the need for dimensionality reduction for high-dimensional state and observation processes. We applied these methods to a novel problem of tracking rhythmic dynamics in the spiking of neurons in the subthalamic nucleus of Parkinson's patients with the goal of optimizing placement of deep brain stimulation electrodes. We developed a decoding algorithm that can make decision in real-time (for example, to stimulate the neurons or not) based on various sources of information present in

  10. Evaluation for Water Conservation in Agriculture: Using a Multi-Method Econometric Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez, A.; Eaton, D. J.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 1960's, farmers have implemented new irrigation technology to increase crop production and planting acreage. At that time, technology responded to the increasing demand for food due to world population growth. Currently, the problem of decreased water supply threatens to limit agricultural production. Uncertain precipitation patterns, from prolonged droughts to irregular rains, will continue to hamper planting operations, and farmers are further limited by an increased competition for water from rapidly growing urban areas. Irrigation technology promises to reduce water usage while maintaining or increasing farm yields. The challenge for water managers and policy makers is to quantify and redistribute these efficiency gains as a source of 'new water.' Using conservation in farming as a source of 'new water' requires accurately quantifying the efficiency gains of irrigation technology under farmers' actual operations and practices. From a water resource management and policy perspective, the efficiency gains from conservation in farming can be redistributed to municipal, industrial and recreational uses. This paper presents a methodology that water resource managers can use to statistically verify the water savings attributable to conservation technology. The specific conservation technology examined in this study is precision leveling, and the study includes a mixed-methods approach using four different econometric models: Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Propensity Score Matching, and Hierarchical Linear Models. These methods are used for ex-post program evaluation where random assignment is not possible, and they could be employed to evaluate agricultural conservation programs, where participation is often self-selected. The principal method taken in this approach is Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM), a useful model for agriculture because it incorporates the hierarchical nature of the data (fields, tenants, and landowners) as well as crop rotation

  11. A Prototypical Model for Estimating High Tech Navy Recruiting Markets

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-12-01

    Company, New York, N.Y., 1990. Gujarati , Damodar N., Basic Econometrics, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, N.Y., 1988. Jehn, Christopher...Probability, Logit, and Probit Models, New York, New York 1990, p. 73. 37 Gujarati , D., ibid, p. 500. 31 V. MODELS ESTIMATION A. MODEL I ESTIMATION OF

  12. An Econometric Analysis of the Elasticity of Vehicle Travel with Respect to Fuel Cost per Mile Using RTEC Survey Data

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Kahn, J.; Gibson, R.

    1999-03-01

    This paper presents the results of econometric estimation of the ''rebound effect'' for household vehicle travel in the United States based on a comprehensive analysis of survey data collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at approximately three-year intervals over a 15-year period. The rebound effect is defined as the percent change in vehicle travel for a percent change in fuel economy. It summarizes the tendency to ''take back'' potential energy savings due to fuel economy improvements in the form of increased vehicle travel. Separate vehicles use models were estimated for one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-vehicle households. The results are consistent with the consensus of recently published estimates based on national or state-level data, which show a long-run rebound effect of about +0.2 (a ten percent increase in fuel economy, all else equal, would produce roughly a two percent increase in vehicle travel and an eight percent reduction in fuel use). The hypothesis that vehicle travel responds equally to changes in fuel cost-per-mile whether caused by changes in fuel economy or fuel price per gallon could not be rejected. Recognizing the interdependency in survey data among miles of travel, fuel economy and price paid for fuel for a particular vehicle turns out to be crucial to obtaining meaningful results.

  13. The Anatomy of a Likely Donor: Econometric Evidence on Philanthropy to Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lara, Christen; Johnson, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $30.3 billion, an 8.2% increase over the previous year. Roughly, 26% of those funds came from alumni donations. This article builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model to explain and predict the pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data…

  14. Econometric Methods for Causal Evaluation of Education Policies and Practices: A Non-Technical Guide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger

    2011-01-01

    Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical detail, this paper explains the main idea and intuition…

  15. Determinants of Educational Achievement in Morocco: A Micro-Econometric Analysis Applied to the TIMSS Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ibourk, Aomar

    2013-01-01

    Based on data from international surveys measuring learning (TIMSS), this article focuses on the analysis of the academic performance Moroccan students. The results of the econometric model show that the students' characteristics, their family environment and school context are key determinants of these performances. The study also shows that the…

  16. An Initial Econometric Consideration of Supply and Demand in the Guaranteed Student Loan Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bayus, Barry; Kendis, Kurt

    1982-01-01

    In this econometric model of the Guaranteed Student Loan Program (GSLP), supply is related to banks' liquidity and yield curves, all lenders' economic costs and returns, and Student Loan Marketing Association activity. GSLP demand is based on loan costs, family debt position, and net student need for financial aid. (RW)

  17. The Nexus of Place and Finance in the Analysis of Educational Attainment: A Spatial Econometric Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sutton, Farah

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the spatial distribution of educational attainment and then builds upon current predictive frameworks for understanding patterns of educational attainment by applying a spatial econometric method of analysis. The research from this study enables a new approach to the policy discussion on how to improve educational attainment…

  18. Education and the decision to migrate: an econometric analysis of migration in Venezuela.

    PubMed

    Levy, M B; Wadycki, W J

    1974-03-01

    Interstate labor force migration in Venezuela was estimated for 3 groups of migrants classified by their own educational levels. Regional educational levels and education-specific average wages were included as explanatory variables in order to distinguish between the various effects of education on migration and to estimate differences in the response of educated and uneducated migrants to other explanatory variables. The basic model resembled that used in other econometric studies of migration; migration was assumed to be a function of a number of origin and destination state characteristics which were believed likely to represent costs and benefits of living in various states for most persons. Migration rates rather than absolute numbers were the dependent variable. Zellner's regression technique was employed, and appropriate F statistics were used to test the null hypothesis of equal response of migrants to each of the explanatory variables across educational levels. A substantial proportion of the variance in migration rates was explained for each level of education. The results showed that educated members of the labor force in Venezuela are more mobile and also that there are significant differences in the responses of educated and uneducated migrants to variables which reflect the costs and benefits of alternative locations. The educated were less deterred by increased distance and more responsive to wage rates in alternative locations. The educated appear to be more mobile because of their greater access to information and greater incentives to make additional investments in search of better opportunities. Both educated and uneducated migrants are attracted to more populated regions but the elasticity is almost twice as high for the educated. Educational opportunity was found to be an important locational advantage for those who already had attended secondary school. The less educated are less likely to move to states with high educational levels, perhaps

  19. Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

  20. Effects of the R and D tax credit on energy R and D expenditures: an econometric analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Moe, R.J.; Kee, J.R.; Lackey, K.C.; Cronin, F.J.

    1985-02-01

    Objective of the study was to estimate the effects on industrial energy research and development (R and D) expenditures of the R and D Tax Credit component of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Two tasks were performed. The first task was to collect data on industrial R and D expenditures, sales, oil prices, and price deflators. The R and D expenditure data were obtained from the National Science Foundation; other data were collected from Commerce Department and Department of Energy publications. The second task was to perform an econometric analysis of the effects of the tax credit on industrial R and D expenditures. Equations relating: (1) total; and (2) energy-related R and D expenditures to sales, oil prices, and a variable representing the availability of the tax credit were estimated, using data for each of seven manufacturing industries and eleven years. The analysis showed that the tax credit caused real total industrial R and D expenditures to be 9.1% greater than they would have been without the credit, but caused real energy industrial R and D expenditures to be 13.8% less than they would have been without the tax credit.

  1. Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

    2014-09-01

    Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced

  2. Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

    2015-06-01

    Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced

  3. Antiretroviral Treatment Scale-Up and Tuberculosis Mortality in High TB/HIV Burden Countries: An Econometric Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Isabel; Bendavid, Eran; Korenromp, Eline L.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality in patients with active tuberculosis (TB), but the population-level relationship between ART coverage and TB mortality is untested. We estimated the reduction in population-level TB mortality that can be attributed to increasing ART coverage across 41 high HIV-TB burden countries. Methods We compiled TB mortality trends between 1996 and 2011 from two sources: (1) national program-reported TB death notifications, adjusted for annual TB case detection rates, and (2) WHO TB mortality estimates. National coverage with ART, as proportion of HIV-infected people in need, was obtained from UNAIDS. We applied panel linear regressions controlling for HIV prevalence (5-year lagged), coverage of TB interventions (estimated by WHO and UNAIDS), gross domestic product per capita, health spending from domestic sources, urbanization, and country fixed effects. Results Models suggest that that increasing ART coverage was followed by reduced TB mortality, across multiple specifications. For death notifications at 2 to 5 years following a given ART scale-up, a 1% increase in ART coverage predicted 0.95% faster mortality rate decline (p = 0.002); resulting in 27% fewer TB deaths in 2011 alone than would have occurred without ART. Based on WHO death estimates, a 1% increase in ART predicted a 1.0% reduced TB death rate (p<0.001), and 31% fewer deaths in 2011. TB mortality was higher at higher HIV prevalence (p<0.001), but not related to coverage of isoniazid preventive therapy, cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, or other covariates. Conclusion This econometric analysis supports a substantial impact of ART on population-level TB mortality realized already within the first decade of ART scale-up, that is apparent despite variable-quality mortality data. PMID:27536864

  4. Development and application of econometric demand and supply models for selected Chesapeake Bay seafood products

    SciTech Connect

    Nieves, L.A.; Moe, R.J.

    1984-12-01

    Five models were developed to forecast future Chesapeake seafood product prices, harvest quantities, and resulting income. Annual econometric models are documented for oysters, hard and soft blue crabs, and hard and soft clams. To the degree that data permit, these models represent demand and supply at the retail, wholesale, and harvest levels. The resulting models have broad applications in environmental policy issues and regulatory analyses for the Chesapeake Bay. 37 references, 10 figures, 99 tables.

  5. Econometric issues in testing the age neutrality of health care expenditure.

    PubMed

    Salas, C; Raftery, J P

    2001-10-01

    A recent study by Zweifel et al. (Zweifel P, Felder S, Meiers M. Ageing of the population and health care expenditure: a red herring? Health Economics 1999; 8: 485-496) suggests that age is not related to health care expenditure among the elderly once 'closeness to death' is controlled for. If correct, this finding has major policy implications, but flaws in the econometric analysis undermine its credibility. We highlight two in particular, and propose methods to deal with them.

  6. Essays on the economics and econometrics of human capital

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosso, Stefano

    This thesis is composed by three distinct chapters. They are related by their common theme: the economic analysis of the process of human capital formation. The first chapter distills and extends the recent research on the economics of human development and social mobility. It critically analyzes the literature on the role of early life conditions in shaping multiple life skills with emphasis on the importance of critical and sensitive investments periods in influencing skill development. It develops economic models that rationalize the empirical evidence on treatment effects of social programs and on family influence. It investigates the empirical support of recent claims, made by part of the literature, on the relevance of credit constraints in limiting skill development. It shows how credit constraints are not a major force explaining differences in the amount of parental and self-investments in skills and how untargeted income transfer policies to poor families do not significantly boost child outcomes. The second chapter compares the performance of maximum likelihood and simulated methods of moments in estimating dynamic discrete choice models. It presents a structural model of education and shows how it can be used to estimate heterogeneous returns from schooling choices which account for their continuation values. Continuation values have a large impact on returns, but are ignored in the measures commonly used to assess the value of schooling choices. The estimates from the model are used to compute a synthetic dataset. This is used to assess the ability of maximum likelihood and simulated methods of moments to recover the model parameters. It finally proposes a Monte Carlo exercise to gain confidence on the performance of a simulated method of moments algorithm. The last chapter proposes a method to assess long run impacts on earnings of early interventions even in absence of long-term data collection on earnings histories for program participants. It

  7. An econometric model of the world copper industry

    SciTech Connect

    Lewanika, M.W.

    1989-01-01

    This model of the world copper economy is fitted to 1960-1984 annual data. Here, unlike in previous models, an attempt is made to depart from the tendency to force the same functional form to represent individual country supply curves. The methodology utilized in constructing this model allows for individual countries to have supply curves that differ in functional form. The model consists of five categories - Western world consumption, Western world primary supply, Western world secondary supply, change in inventory, and net exports to the Centrally Planned Economies. Consumption, secondary supply, and change in inventory are each estimated by one equation aggregating the Western world. Primary supply is the sum of the supply equations for primary copper estimated for seven major producing countries and the Rest of the world. The seven countries are Chile, the United States, Canada, Zambia, Zaire, Peru, and Australia. The model is used to examine the copper industry in the coming decade under various scenarios. The copper market is found to be characterized by low short-run and slightly higher long-run price elasticities except in the case of the Rest of the World whose short-run elasticity is 1.52.

  8. An Econometric Model of Healthcare Demand With Nonlinear Pricing.

    PubMed

    Kunz, Johannes S; Winkelmann, Rainer

    2016-04-04

    From 2004 to 2012, the German social health insurance levied a co-payment for the first doctor visit in a calendar quarter. We develop a new model for estimating the effect of such a co-payment on the individual number of visits per quarter. The model combines a one-time increase in the otherwise constant hazard rate determining the timing of doctor visits with a difference-in-differences strategy to identify the reform effect. An extended version of the model accounts for a mismatch between reporting period and calendar quarter. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we do not find an effect of the co-payment on demand for doctor visits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Examining single-source secondary impacts estimated from brute-force, decoupled direct method, and advanced plume treatment approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    In regulatory assessments, there is a need for reliable estimates of the impacts of precursor emissions from individual sources on secondary PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microns) and ozone. Three potential methods for estimating th...

  10. Estimation of surface energy balance from radiant surface temperature and NOAA AVHRR sensor reflectances over agricultural and native vegetation. [AVHRR (advanced very high resolution radiometer)

    SciTech Connect

    Huang Xinmei; Lyons, T.J. ); Smith, R.C.G. ); Hacker, J.M.; Schwerdtfeger, P. )

    1993-08-01

    A model is developed to evaluate surface heat flux densities using the radiant surface temperature and red and near-infrared reflectances from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sensor. Net radiation is calculated from an empirical formulation and albedo estimated from satellite observations. Infrared surface temperature is corrected to aerodynamic surface temperature in estimating the sensible heat flux and the latent flux is evaluated as the residual of the surface energy balance. When applied to relatively homogeneous agricultural and native vegetation, the model yields realistic estimates of sensible and latent heat flux density in the surface layer for cases where either the sensible or latent flux dominates. 29 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs.

  11. Advanced transportation system study: Manned launch vehicle concepts for two way transportation system payloads to LEO. Program cost estimates document

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duffy, James B.

    1993-01-01

    This report describes Rockwell International's cost analysis results of manned launch vehicle concepts for two way transportation system payloads to low earth orbit during the basic and option 1 period of performance for contract NAS8-39207, advanced transportation system studies. Vehicles analyzed include the space shuttle, personnel launch system (PLS) with advanced launch system (ALS) and national launch system (NLS) boosters, foreign launch vehicles, NLS-2 derived launch vehicles, liquid rocket booster (LRB) derived launch vehicle, and cargo transfer and return vehicle (CTRV).

  12. Application of Advanced Signal Processing Techniques to Angle of Arrival Estimation in ATC Navigation and Surveillance Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-06-23

    Advanced Calculus (McGraw-Hill, New York, 1956). 99. R. Bartle , The Elements of Real Analysis (Wiley, New York, 1964). R-7 I i...f (a- M) (a - H)*4(s) du(s) - C (D.28c) where U is the standard (i.e., Lebesgue ) measure in the signal domain. Of course, the integrals in Eq. (D.28

  13. Advances in Support of the CMAQ Bidirectional Science Option for the Estimation of Ammonia Flux from Agricultural cropland

    EPA Science Inventory

    Proposed Session: Emissions Inventories, Models and processes: Last year a new CMAQ bidirectional option for the estimation of ammonia flux (emission and deposition) was released. This option essentially replaces NEI crop ammonia emissions with emissions calculated dynamically...

  14. Econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. Volume III. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Berndt, E.R.; Fraumeni, B.M.; Hudson, E.A.; Jorgenson, D.W.; Stoker, T.M.

    1981-03-01

    This report presents the econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. There are two key components of 9DGEM - the model of household behavior and the model of produconcrneer behavior. The household model is concerned with decisions on consumption, saving, labor supply and the composition of consumption. The producer model is concerned with output price formation and determination of input patterns and purchases for each of the nine producing sectors. These components form the behavioral basis of DGEM. The remaining components are concerned with constraints, balance conditions, accounting, and government revenues and expenditures (these elements are developed in the report on the model specification).

  15. Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics.

    PubMed

    Mullahy, J

    1998-06-01

    In health economics applications involving outcomes (y) and covariates (x), it is often the case that the central inferential problems of interest involve E[y/x] and its associated partial effects or elasticities. Many such outcomes have two fundamental statistical properties: y > or = 0; and the outcome y = 0 is observed with sufficient frequency that the zeros cannot be ignored econometrically. This paper (1) describes circumstances where the standard two-part model with homoskedastic retransformation will fail to provide consistent inferences about important policy parameters; and (2) demonstrates some alternative approaches that are likely to prove helpful in applications.

  16. Purchased child care, optimal family size and mother's employment: theory and econometric analysis.

    PubMed

    Ermisch, J F

    1989-09-01

    This paper develops a model of family size decisions in which couples choose explicitly a combination of mother's time and purchased childcare (childminder, nanies) for the care and rearing of children. The theoretical model implies that the impact of the mother's wage on her complete fertility varies with the market price of childcare, and that this effect increases (becoming less negative or more positive) with the level of her wage. Econometric analysis of British micro-data confirms the main predictions of the model.

  17. Glass Property Models and Constraints for Estimating the Glass to be Produced at Hanford by Implementing Current Advanced Glass Formulation Efforts

    SciTech Connect

    Vienna, John D.; Kim, Dong-Sang; Skorski, Daniel C.; Matyas, Josef

    2013-07-01

    Recent glass formulation and melter testing data have suggested that significant increases in waste loading in HLW and LAW glasses are possible over current system planning estimates. The data (although limited in some cases) were evaluated to determine a set of constraints and models that could be used to estimate the maximum loading of specific waste compositions in glass. It is recommended that these models and constraints be used to estimate the likely HLW and LAW glass volumes that would result if the current glass formulation studies are successfully completed. It is recognized that some of the models are preliminary in nature and will change in the coming years. Plus the models do not currently address the prediction uncertainties that would be needed before they could be used in plant operations. The models and constraints are only meant to give an indication of rough glass volumes and are not intended to be used in plant operation or waste form qualification activities. A current research program is in place to develop the data, models, and uncertainty descriptions for that purpose. A fundamental tenet underlying the research reported in this document is to try to be less conservative than previous studies when developing constraints for estimating the glass to be produced by implementing current advanced glass formulation efforts. The less conservative approach documented herein should allow for the estimate of glass masses that may be realized if the current efforts in advanced glass formulations are completed over the coming years and are as successful as early indications suggest they may be. Because of this approach there is an unquantifiable uncertainty in the ultimate glass volume projections due to model prediction uncertainties that has to be considered along with other system uncertainties such as waste compositions and amounts to be immobilized, split factors between LAW and HLW, etc.

  18. A computer program for estimating the power-density spectrum of advanced continuous simulation language generated time histories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunn, H. J.

    1981-01-01

    A computer program for performing frequency analysis of time history data is presented. The program uses circular convolution and the fast Fourier transform to calculate power density spectrum (PDS) of time history data. The program interfaces with the advanced continuous simulation language (ACSL) so that a frequency analysis may be performed on ACSL generated simulation variables. An example of the calculation of the PDS of a Van de Pol oscillator is presented.

  19. Application of advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR)-based vegetation health indices for estimation of malaria cases.

    PubMed

    Rahman, Atiqur; Krakauer, Nir; Roytman, Leonid; Goldberg, Mitch; Kogan, Felix

    2010-06-01

    Satellite data may be used to map climatic conditions conducive to malaria outbreaks, assisting in the targeting of public health interventions to mitigate the worldwide increase in incidence of the mosquito-transmitted disease. This work analyzes correlation between malaria cases and vegetation health (VH) indices derived from satellite remote sensing for each week over a period of 14 years for Bandarban, Bangladesh. Correlation analysis showed that years with a high summer temperature condition index (TCI) tended to be those with high malaria incidence. Principal components regression was performed on patterns of weekly TCI during each of the two annual malaria seasons to construct a model as a function of the TCI. These models reduced the malaria estimation error variance by 57% if first-peak (June-July) TCI was used as the estimator and 74% if second-peak (August-September) was used, compared with an estimation of average number of malaria cases for each year.

  20. Advance to and Persistence in Graduate School: Identifying the Influential Factors and Major-Based Differences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Yonghong Jade

    2014-01-01

    Structured within an expanded econometric theoretical framework, this study uses national data sources to identify the critical factors that influence college graduates' advance to and persistence in graduate education and to compare the systematic differences between students in the STEM and non-STEM majors. The findings indicate that there is a…

  1. A Simple Scheme for Estimating Turbulent Heat Flux over Landfast Arctic Sea Ice from Dry Snow to Advanced Melt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raddatz, R. L.; Papakyriakou, T. N.; Else, B. G.; Swystun, K.; Barber, D. G.

    2015-05-01

    We describe a dynamic-parameter aggregation scheme to estimate hourly turbulent heat fluxes over landfast sea ice during the transition from winter to spring. Hourly albedo measurements are used to track the morphology of the surface as it evolved from a fairly smooth homogeneous dry snow surface to a rougher heterogeneous surface with spatially differential melting and melt ponds. The estimates of turbulent heat fluxes for 928 h are compared with eddy-covariance measurements. The model performance metrics (W m) for sensible heat flux were found to be: mean bias , root-mean-square error 6 and absolute accuracy 4, and for latent heat flux near zero, 3 and 2, respectively. The correlation coefficient between modelled and measured sensible heat fluxes was 0.82, and for latent heat fluxes 0.88. The turbulent heat fluxes were estimated more accurately without adjustments than with adjustments for atmospheric stability based on the bulk Richardson number. Overall, and across all metrics for both sensible and latent heat fluxes, the dynamic-parameter aggregation scheme outperformed the static Community Ice (C-ICE) scheme, part of the Community Climate System model, applied to the same winter-to-spring transition period.

  2. On the extension of modern best-estimate plus uncertainy methodologies to future fast reactor and advanced fuel licensing - initial evaluation of issues

    SciTech Connect

    Unal, Cetin; Mcclure, Patrick R

    2009-01-01

    precedence in the NRC. The method is generically referred to as a 'Best Estimate plus Uncertainty' approach (BE+U), since the goal of the methodology is to compare the model value (best estimate) plus any uncertainty to a figure of merit like cladding temperature. The challenges for extending the BE+U (1) method for fuel qualification for an Advanced Reactor Fuel are driven by: schedule, the need for data, the data sufficiency, the identification of important phenomenon, the process of validation (with focus on the multi-scale model), and the need to produce and extended best estimate plus uncertainty methodology. This paper examines these issues an offers up a proposed set of methods that extend the current BE+U methodology address most if not all of these challenges.

  3. First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arnold, Ivo J. M.; Rowaan, Wietske

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year…

  4. Tissue Doppler Imaging in the Estimation of Intracardiac Filling Pressure in Decompensated Patients with Advanced Systolic Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Mullens, Wilfried; Borowski, Allen G; Curtin, Ronan J; Thomas, James D; Tang, W. H. Wilson

    2011-01-01

    Background Early transmitral velocity / tissue Doppler mitral annular early diastolic velocity (E/Ea) has been correlated with pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) in a wide variety of cardiac conditions. The objective of this study was to determine the reliability of mitral E/Ea for predicting PCWP in patients admitted for advanced decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Methods and Results Prospective consecutive patients with ADHF (ejection fraction [EF] ≤30%, NYHA class III-IV symptoms) underwent simultaneous echocardiographic and hemodynamic evaluation on admission and after 48 hours of intensive medical therapy. A total of 106 patients were included (mean age 57 ±12 years, EF 24 ±8%, PCWP 21 ±7 mmHg, mitral E/Ea 20 ±12). There was a lack of correlation between mitral E/Ea and PCWP, particularly in those with larger LV volumes, more impaired cardiac indices, and the presence of cardiac resynchronization therapy. Overall, mitral E/Ea was similar among patients with PCWP > and ≤ 18 mmHg, and sensitivity and specificity for mitral E/Ea > 15 to identify a PCWP > 18 mmHg was 66% and 50%, respectively. Contrary to prior reports, we did not observe any direct association between changes in PCWP and changes in mitral E/Ea. Conclusion In decompensated patients with advanced systolic heart failure, tissue Doppler derived mitral E/Ea may not be as reliable in predicting intracardiac filling pressures, particularly in those with larger LV volumes, more impaired cardiac indices, and the presence of cardiac resynchronization therapy. PMID:19075104

  5. Embedded fiber-optic sensing for accurate internal monitoring of cell state in advanced battery management systems part 2: Internal cell signals and utility for state estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganguli, Anurag; Saha, Bhaskar; Raghavan, Ajay; Kiesel, Peter; Arakaki, Kyle; Schuh, Andreas; Schwartz, Julian; Hegyi, Alex; Sommer, Lars Wilko; Lochbaum, Alexander; Sahu, Saroj; Alamgir, Mohamed

    2017-02-01

    A key challenge hindering the mass adoption of Lithium-ion and other next-gen chemistries in advanced battery applications such as hybrid/electric vehicles (xEVs) has been management of their functional performance for more effective battery utilization and control over their life. Contemporary battery management systems (BMS) reliant on monitoring external parameters such as voltage and current to ensure safe battery operation with the required performance usually result in overdesign and inefficient use of capacity. More informative embedded sensors are desirable for internal cell state monitoring, which could provide accurate state-of-charge (SOC) and state-of-health (SOH) estimates and early failure indicators. Here we present a promising new embedded sensing option developed by our team for cell monitoring, fiber-optic (FO) sensors. High-performance large-format pouch cells with embedded FO sensors were fabricated. This second part of the paper focuses on the internal signals obtained from these FO sensors. The details of the method to isolate intercalation strain and temperature signals are discussed. Data collected under various xEV operational conditions are presented. An algorithm employing dynamic time warping and Kalman filtering was used to estimate state-of-charge with high accuracy from these internal FO signals. Their utility for high-accuracy, predictive state-of-health estimation is also explored.

  6. Evaluation of Advanced Reactive Surface Area Estimates for Improved Prediction of Mineral Reaction Rates in Porous Media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckingham, L. E.; Mitnick, E. H.; Zhang, S.; Voltolini, M.; Yang, L.; Steefel, C. I.; Swift, A.; Cole, D. R.; Sheets, J.; Kneafsey, T. J.; Landrot, G.; Anovitz, L. M.; Mito, S.; Xue, Z.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; DePaolo, D.

    2015-12-01

    CO2 sequestration in deep sedimentary formations is a promising means of reducing atmospheric CO2 emissions but the rate and extent of mineral trapping remains difficult to predict. Reactive transport models provide predictions of mineral trapping based on laboratory mineral reaction rates, which have been shown to have large discrepancies with field rates. This, in part, may be due to poor quantification of mineral reactive surface area in natural porous media. Common estimates of mineral reactive surface area are ad hoc and typically based on grain size, adjusted several orders of magnitude to account for surface roughness and reactivity. This results in orders of magnitude discrepancies in estimated surface areas that directly translate into orders of magnitude discrepancies in model predictions. Additionally, natural systems can be highly heterogeneous and contain abundant nano- and micro-porosity, which can limit connected porosity and access to mineral surfaces. In this study, mineral-specific accessible surface areas are computed for a sample from the reservoir formation at the Nagaoka pilot CO2 injection site (Japan). Accessible mineral surface areas are determined from a multi-scale image analysis including X-ray microCT, SEM QEMSCAN, XRD, SANS, and SEM-FIB. Powder and flow-through column laboratory experiments are performed and the evolution of solutes in the aqueous phase is tracked. Continuum-scale reactive transport models are used to evaluate the impact of reactive surface area on predictions of experimental reaction rates. Evaluated reactive surface areas include geometric and specific surface areas (eg. BET) in addition to their reactive-site weighted counterparts. The most accurate predictions of observed powder mineral dissolution rates were obtained through use of grain-size specific surface areas computed from a BET-based correlation. Effectively, this surface area reflects the grain-fluid contact area, or accessible surface area, in the powder

  7. Advanced methods for modeling water-levels and estimating drawdowns with SeriesSEE, an Excel add-in

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Halford, Keith; Garcia, C. Amanda; Fenelon, Joe; Mirus, Benjamin B.

    2012-12-21

    Water-level modeling is used for multiple-well aquifer tests to reliably differentiate pumping responses from natural water-level changes in wells, or “environmental fluctuations.” Synthetic water levels are created during water-level modeling and represent the summation of multiple component fluctuations, including those caused by environmental forcing and pumping. Pumping signals are modeled by transforming step-wise pumping records into water-level changes by using superimposed Theis functions. Water-levels can be modeled robustly with this Theis-transform approach because environmental fluctuations and pumping signals are simulated simultaneously. Water-level modeling with Theis transforms has been implemented in the program SeriesSEE, which is a Microsoft® Excel add-in. Moving average, Theis, pneumatic-lag, and gamma functions transform time series of measured values into water-level model components in SeriesSEE. Earth tides and step transforms are additional computed water-level model components. Water-level models are calibrated by minimizing a sum-of-squares objective function where singular value decomposition and Tikhonov regularization stabilize results. Drawdown estimates from a water-level model are the summation of all Theis transforms minus residual differences between synthetic and measured water levels. The accuracy of drawdown estimates is limited primarily by noise in the data sets, not the Theis-transform approach. Drawdowns much smaller than environmental fluctuations have been detected across major fault structures, at distances of more than 1 mile from the pumping well, and with limited pre-pumping and recovery data at sites across the United States. In addition to water-level modeling, utilities exist in SeriesSEE for viewing, cleaning, manipulating, and analyzing time-series data.

  8. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) - U.S. Copyright TXu 1-901-039

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T; Lantz, Margaret W; Hauser, Katie R

    2014-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. The basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings contained in this copyright.

  9. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

    PubMed

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-11-15

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal.

  10. Retail gas prices and its effect on actual automobile purchases: An econometric analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaw, Brian F., Sr.

    Weekly aggregate vehicle purchase and retail gasoline price data, over the time span of 2001.01 to 2005.52, were used to determine in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area if the price of gasoline helped to predict vehicle purchases. This time period and data set included the effects of rapidly changing technology and rapidly increasing retail gasoline prices. This time series econometric analysis took advantage of the Phillips-Perron and Augmented Dickey Fuller tests for stationarity, as well as the concept of Granger causality to answer this question. Short-run relationships were present and were not contingent on the gender of the purchaser. The long-run results were affirmative for female purchasers and there was not enough evidence to conclude the same for male purchasers.

  11. Accounting for selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forested trees based on structural modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ay, Jean-Sauveur; Guillemot, Joannès; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Doyen, Luc; Leadley, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global change on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of application on forested trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8 km). We also compared the output of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM in term of bioclimatic response curves and potential distribution under current climate. According to the species and the spatial resolution of the calibration dataset, shapes of bioclimatic response curves the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between the SSDM and classical SDMs. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree

  12. Estimating prognosis and palliation based on tumour marker CA 19-9 and quality of life indicators in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer receiving chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Bernhard, J; Dietrich, D; Glimelius, B; Hess, V; Bodoky, G; Scheithauer, W; Herrmann, R

    2010-01-01

    Background: To investigate the prognostic value of quality of life (QOL) relative to tumour marker carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, and the role of CA 19-9 in estimating palliation in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer receiving chemotherapy. Methods: CA 19-9 serum concentration was measured at baseline and every 3 weeks in a phase III trial (SAKK 44/00–CECOG/PAN.1.3.001). Patients scored QOL indicators at baseline, and before each administration of chemotherapy (weekly or bi-weekly) for 24 weeks or until progression. Prognostic factors were investigated by Cox models, QOL during chemotherapy by mixed-effect models. Results: Patient-rated pain (P<0.02) and tiredness (P<0.03) were independent predictors for survival, although less prognostic than CA 19-9 (P<0.001). Baseline CA 19-9 did not predict QOL during chemotherapy, except for a marginal effect on pain (P<0.05). Mean changes in physical domains across the whole observation period were marginally correlated with the maximum CA 19-9 decrease. Patients in a better health status reported the most improvement in QOL within 20 days before maximum CA 19-9 decrease. They indicated substantially less pain and better physical well-being, already, early on during chemotherapy with a maximum CA 19-9 decrease of ⩾50% vs <50%. Conclusion: In advanced pancreatic cancer, pain and tiredness are independent prognostic factors for survival, although less prognostic than CA 19-9. Quality of life improves before best CA 19-9 response but the maximum CA 19-9 decrease has no impact on subsequent QOL. To estimate palliation by chemotherapy, patient's perception needs to be taken into account. PMID:20877359

  13. Advances in 3D soil mapping and water content estimation using multi-channel ground-penetrating radar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moysey, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    Multi-channel ground-penetrating radar systems have recently become widely available, thereby opening new possibilities for shallow imaging of the subsurface. One advantage of these systems is that they can significantly reduce survey times by simultaneously collecting multiple lines of GPR reflection data. As a result, it is becoming more practical to complete 3D surveys - particularly in situations where the subsurface undergoes rapid changes, e.g., when monitoring infiltration and redistribution of water in soils. While 3D and 4D surveys can provide a degree of clarity that significantly improves interpretation of the subsurface, an even more powerful feature of the new multi-channel systems for hydrologists is their ability to collect data using multiple antenna offsets. Central mid-point (CMP) surveys have been widely used to estimate radar wave velocities, which can be related to water contents, by sequentially increasing the distance, i.e., offset, between the source and receiver antennas. This process is highly labor intensive using single-channel systems and therefore such surveys are often only performed at a few locations at any given site. In contrast, with multi-channel GPR systems it is possible to physically arrange an array of antennas at different offsets, such that a CMP-style survey is performed at every point along a radar transect. It is then possible to process this data to obtain detailed maps of wave velocity with a horizontal resolution on the order of centimeters. In this talk I review concepts underlying multi-channel GPR imaging with an emphasis on multi-offset profiling for water content estimation. Numerical simulations are used to provide examples that illustrate situations where multi-offset GPR profiling is likely to be successful, with an emphasis on considering how issues like noise, soil heterogeneity, vertical variations in water content and weak reflection returns affect algorithms for automated analysis of the data. Overall

  14. Can deliberately incomplete gene sample augmentation improve a phylogeny estimate for the advanced moths and butterflies (Hexapoda: Lepidoptera)?

    PubMed

    Cho, Soowon; Zwick, Andreas; Regier, Jerome C; Mitter, Charles; Cummings, Michael P; Yao, Jianxiu; Du, Zaile; Zhao, Hong; Kawahara, Akito Y; Weller, Susan; Davis, Donald R; Baixeras, Joaquin; Brown, John W; Parr, Cynthia

    2011-12-01

    This paper addresses the question of whether one can economically improve the robustness of a molecular phylogeny estimate by increasing gene sampling in only a subset of taxa, without having the analysis invalidated by artifacts arising from large blocks of missing data. Our case study stems from an ongoing effort to resolve poorly understood deeper relationships in the large clade Ditrysia ( > 150,000 species) of the insect order Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths). Seeking to remedy the overall weak support for deeper divergences in an initial study based on five nuclear genes (6.6 kb) in 123 exemplars, we nearly tripled the total gene sample (to 26 genes, 18.4 kb) but only in a third (41) of the taxa. The resulting partially augmented data matrix (45% intentionally missing data) consistently increased bootstrap support for groupings previously identified in the five-gene (nearly) complete matrix, while introducing no contradictory groupings of the kind that missing data have been predicted to produce. Our results add to growing evidence that data sets differing substantially in gene and taxon sampling can often be safely and profitably combined. The strongest overall support for nodes above the family level came from including all nucleotide changes, while partitioning sites into sets undergoing mostly nonsynonymous versus mostly synonymous change. In contrast, support for the deepest node for which any persuasive molecular evidence has yet emerged (78-85% bootstrap) was weak or nonexistent unless synonymous change was entirely excluded, a result plausibly attributed to compositional heterogeneity. This node (Gelechioidea + Apoditrysia), tentatively proposed by previous authors on the basis of four morphological synapomorphies, is the first major subset of ditrysian superfamilies to receive strong statistical support in any phylogenetic study. A "more-genes-only" data set (41 taxa×26 genes) also gave strong signal for a second deep grouping (Macrolepidoptera

  15. Ratio-based estimators for a change point in persistence.

    PubMed

    Halunga, Andreea G; Osborn, Denise R

    2012-11-01

    We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97-116], Kim et al. [Kim, J.Y., Belaire-Franch, J., Badillo Amador, R., 2002. Corringendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series". Journal of Econometrics 109, 389-392] and Busetti and Taylor [Busetti, F., Taylor, A.M.R., 2004. Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 123, 33-66] are inconsistent when a mean (or other deterministic component) is estimated for the process. In such cases, the estimators converge to random variables with upper bound given by the true break date when persistence changes from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. A Monte Carlo study confirms the large sample downward bias and also finds substantial biases in moderate sized samples, partly due to properties at the end points of the search interval.

  16. Economic evaluation of nivolumab for the treatment of second-line advanced squamous NSCLC in Canada: a comparison of modeling approaches to estimate and extrapolate survival outcomes.

    PubMed

    Goeree, Ron; Villeneuve, Julie; Goeree, Jeff; Penrod, John R; Orsini, Lucinda; Tahami Monfared, Amir Abbas

    2016-06-01

    Background Lung cancer is the most common type of cancer in the world and is associated with significant mortality. Nivolumab demonstrated statistically significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for patients with advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who were previously treated. The cost-effectiveness of nivolumab has not been assessed in Canada. A contentious component of projecting long-term cost and outcomes in cancer relates to the modeling approach adopted, with the two most common approaches being partitioned survival (PS) and Markov models. The objectives of this analysis were to estimate the cost-utility of nivolumab and to compare the results using these alternative modeling approaches. Methods Both PS and Markov models were developed using docetaxel and erlotinib as comparators. A three-health state model was used consisting of progression-free, progressed disease, and death. Disease progression and time to progression were estimated by identifying best-fitting survival curves from the clinical trial data for PFS and OS. Expected costs and health outcomes were calculated by combining health-state occupancy with medical resource use and quality-of-life assigned to each of the three health states. The health outcomes included in the model were survival and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs). Results Nivolumab was found to have the highest expected per-patient cost, but also improved per-patient life years (LYs) and QALYs. Nivolumab cost an additional $151,560 and $140,601 per QALY gained compared to docetaxel and erlotinib, respectively, using a PS model approach. The cost-utility estimates using a Markov model were very similar ($152,229 and $141,838, respectively, per QALY gained). Conclusions Nivolumab was found to involve a trade-off between improved patient survival and QALYs, and increased cost. It was found that the use of a PS or Markov model produced very similar estimates of expected cost

  17. Monitoring water storage changes using absolute gravity measurements, neutron probes and piezometer data in West Africa: advances in specific yield and recharge estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hector, B.; Séguis, L.; Descloîtres, M.; Hinderer, J.; Wubda, M.; Luck, B.; Le Moigne, N.

    2012-04-01

    Advances in water storage monitoring are crucial to characterize the spatial variability of hydrological processes. Classical water storage investigation methods often involve point measurements (piezometers, neutron probes, humidity sensors…), which may be irrelevant in heterogeneous mediums. Over the past few years, there has been an increasing interest in the use of gravimeters for hydrological studies. Water mass redistribution leads to variations in the Earth's gravity field which can be measured by gravimetry. In the framework of the GHYRAF (Gravity and Hydrology in Africa) project, 3 years of repeated absolute gravity measurements using FG5#206 from Micro-g Solutions Inc. have been undertaken at Nalohou, a Sudanian site in northern Benin. Hydrological monitoring is carried out within the long-term observing system AMMA-Catch (an observatory of RBV, the French critical zone exploration network). Seasonal gravity variations in link with the hydrological cycle can reach 11 µgal at this site, equivalent to a 26cm thick infinite layer of water. The vadose zone and a shallow unconfined aquifer in weathered metamorphic rocks are responsible for most of the water storage variations. For the first time in the climatic context of the West African monsoon, gravity data are compared to the time evolution of the water storages deduced from neutron probes and water-table variations. The approach is two-fold: first, total storage variations are estimated from neutron probe-derived moisture through the whole vertical profile (surface to groundwater) monitored at the gravimetric site and uniformly extended according to the topography. Results show a very good fit with gravity data, enlightening the fact that absolute gravimeters are sensitive to total water storage variations from the soil surface to the aquifer. The second approach introduces a spatial variability: it was undertaken to check a structural model for specific yield of the aquifer, based on magnetic

  18. [Are there irrationalities in the consumption of anti-obesity drugs in Brazil? A pharmaco-econometric analysis of panel datasets].

    PubMed

    Mota, Daniel Marques; de Oliveira, Márcia Gonçalves; Bovi, Rafael Filiacci; Silva, Sidarta Figueredo; Cunha, Jeane Araújo Fernandes; Divino, José Angelo

    2014-05-01

    The scope of this study is to analyze the determinants of the use of appetite suppressants (amfepramone, femproporex, mazindol and sibutramine) through the estimation of a dynamic panel dataset model for the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District (DF) in the period from 2009 to 2011. The results show that consumption of appetite suppressants did not follow the geographic distribution of overweight and obese individuals across the capitals and DF. There is a recurrent consumption of appetite inhibitors, in which 79% of the current consumption of these drugs is explained by past consumption. Among the variables that explain the use of inhibitors, the percentage of obese adults, the percentage of adults who habitually consume fruit and vegetables, and the coverage rate of health plans stand out. The pharmaco-econometric analysis suggests that there are problems in the rational use of appetite suppressants in the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District with respect to both the combined consumption of these drugs with other medicines - deemed illegal by the Federal Council of Medicine and ANVISA - and in the therapeutic prescription of these products.

  19. Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach.

    PubMed

    Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

    2014-11-01

    We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009-10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals.

  20. The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, W. P., Jr.

    2010-07-01

    In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.

  1. Supply and demand for wood as a source of energy in Zambia: An econometric analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Mupimpila, C.

    1993-01-01

    This study examines the status of biomass energy in Zambia. In its current usage, the concept of biomass energy often implies woodfuel because woodfuel is the main biomass energy. This study develops an econometric model of household woodfuel demand and also evaluates the supply of woodfuel in Zambia. The study finds that there are significant sectoral differences in woodfuel demand between the rural and urban sectors. In the rural sector, inflation is by far the most significant determinant of household woodfuel demand. The coefficients on inflation are statistically significant at better than the one percent level and also have expected positive signs. In the urban sector, inflation is again by far the most significant determinant of woodfuel demand. However, in the urban sector, household income and woodfuel price are also significant determinants of demand. The coefficients on inflation, household income, and woodfuel price are all significant at better than the one percent level and have expected signs. The income elasticity of woodfuel demand is positive, suggesting that in the short-run, woodfuel is a normal good. However, the elasticity of woodfuel demand with respect to growth in investment is negative, indicating that long-run structural change in the economy reduces woodfuel demand.

  2. An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531

  3. An assessment of Japanese carbon tax reform using the E3MG econometric model.

    PubMed

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of -25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.

  4. Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

    PubMed

    Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

    2009-10-01

    Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.

  5. TRAC-PF1/MOD1: an advanced best-estimate computer program for pressurized water reactor thermal-hydraulic analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Liles, D.R.; Mahaffy, J.H.

    1986-07-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory is developing the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) to provide advanced best-estimate predictions of postulated accidents in light-water reactors. The TRAC-PF1/MOD1 program provides this capability for pressurized water reactors and for many thermal-hydraulic test facilities. The code features either a one- or a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and its associated internals, a two-fluid nonequilibrium hydrodynamics model with a noncondensable gas field and solute tracking, flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment, optional reflood tracking capability for bottom-flood and falling-film quench fronts, and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions. The stability-enhancing two-step (SETS) numerical algorithm is used in the one-dimensional hydrodynamics and permits this portion of the fluid dynamics to violate the material Courant condition. This technique permits large time steps and, hence, reduced running time for slow transients.

  6. Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets. PMID:24154517

  7. Improving HelioClim-3 estimates of surface solar using the McClear clear-sky model and recent advances on atmosphere composition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qu, Z.; Gschwind, B.; Lefevre, M.; Wald, L.

    2014-07-01

    The HelioClim-3 database (HC3v3) provides records of surface solar irradiation every 15 min estimated by processing images from the geostationary meteorological Meteosat satellites using climatological data sets of atmospheric Linke turbidity factor. This technical note proposes a method to improve a posteriori HC3v3 by combining it with data records of the irradiation under clear sky from the new clear-sky model McClear whose inputs are the advanced global aerosol properties forecasts and physically consistent total column content in water vapour and ozone produced by the MACC projects. The method is validated by comparison with a series of ground measurements for 15 min and 1 h for 6 stations and for daily irradiation for 23 stations. The correlation coefficient is large, greater than respectively 0.92, 0.94, and 0.97, for 15 min, 1 h and daily irradiation. The bias ranges between -4 and 4% of the mean observed irradiation for most sites. The relative root mean square difference (RMSD) varies between 14 and 38% for 15 min, 12 and 33% for 1 h irradiation, and 6 and 20% for daily irradiation. As a rule of thumb, the farther from the nadir of the Meteosat satellite located at latitude 0° and longitude 0°, and the greater the occurrence of fragmented cloud cover, the greater the relative RMSD. The method improves HC3v3 in most cases and no degradation in the others. A systematic correction of HC3v3 with McClear is recommended.

  8. Improving HelioClim-3 estimates of surface solar irradiance using the McClear clear-sky model and recent advances in atmosphere composition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qu, Z.; Gschwind, B.; Lefevre, M.; Wald, L.

    2014-11-01

    The HelioClim-3 database (HC3v3) provides records of surface solar irradiation every 15 min, estimated by processing images from the geostationary meteorological Meteosat satellites using climatological data sets of the atmospheric Linke turbidity factor. This technical note proposes a method to improve a posteriori HC3v3 by combining it with data records of the irradiation under clear skies from the new McClear clear-sky model, whose inputs are the advanced global aerosol property forecasts and physically consistent total column content in water vapour and ozone produced by the MACC (Monitoring Atmosphere Composition and Climate) projects. The method is validated by comparison with a series of ground measurements for 15 min and 1 h for 6 stations and for daily irradiation for 23 stations. The correlation coefficient is large, greater than respectively 0.92, 0.94, and 0.97, for 15 min, 1 h and daily irradiation. The bias ranges from -4 to 4% of the mean observed irradiation for most sites. The relative root mean square difference (RMSD) varies between 14 and 38% for 15 min, 12 and 33% for 1 h irradiation, and 6 and 20% for daily irradiation. As a rule of thumb, the farther from the nadir of the Meteosat satellite located at latitude 0° and longitude 0°, and the greater the occurrence of fragmented cloud cover, the greater the relative RMSD. The method improves HC3v3 in most cases, and with no degradation in the others. A systematic correction of HC3v3 with McClear is recommended.

  9. The Impact of the Internet on Health Consultation Market Concentration: An Econometric Analysis of Secondary Data

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Background Many markets have traditionally been dominated by a few best-selling products, and this is also the case for the health care industry. However, we do not know whether the market will be more or less concentrated when health care services are delivered online (known as E-consultation), nor do we know how to reduce the concentration of the E-consultation market. Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the concentration of the E-consultation market and how to reduce its concentration through information disclosure mechanisms (online reputation and self-representation). Methods We employed a secondary data econometric analysis using transaction data obtained from an E-consultation Website (haodf.com) for three diseases (infantile pneumonia, diabetes, and pancreatic cancer) from 2008 to 2015. We included 2439 doctors in the analysis. Results The E-consultation market largely follows the 20/80 principle, namely that approximately 80% of orders are fulfilled by nearly 20% of doctors. This is much higher than the offline health care market. Meanwhile, the market served by doctors with strong online reputations (beta=0.207, P<.001) or strong online self-representation (beta=0.386, P<.001) is less concentrated. Conclusions When health care services are delivered online, the market will be more concentrated (known as the “Superstar” effect), indicating poor service efficiency for society as a whole. To reduce market concentration, E-consultation websites should provide important design elements such as ratings of doctors (user feedback), articles contributed by doctors, and free consultation services (online representation). A possible and important way to reduce the market concentration of the E-consultation market is to accumulate enough highly rated or highly self-represented doctors. PMID:27793793

  10. Peer influences on drug self-administration: an econometric analysis in socially housed rats.

    PubMed

    Peitz, Geoffrey W; Strickland, Justin C; Pitts, Elizabeth G; Foley, Mark; Tonidandel, Scott; Smith, Mark A

    2013-04-01

    Social-learning theories of substance use propose that members of peer groups influence the drug use of other members by selectively modeling, reinforcing, and punishing either abstinence-related or drug-related behaviors. The objective of the present study was to examine the social influences on cocaine self-administration in isolated and socially housed rats, under conditions where the socially housed rats were tested simultaneously with their partner in the same chamber. To this end, male rats were obtained at weaning and housed in isolated or pair-housed conditions for 6 weeks. Rats were then implanted with intravenous catheters and cocaine self-administration was examined in custom-built operant conditioning chambers that allowed two rats to be tested simultaneously. For some socially housed subjects, both rats had simultaneous access to cocaine; for others, only one rat of the pair had access to cocaine. An econometric analysis was applied to the data, and the reinforcing strength of cocaine was measured by examining consumption (i.e. quantity demanded) and elasticity of demand as a function of price, which was manipulated by varying the dose and ratio requirements on a fixed ratio schedule of reinforcement. Cocaine consumption decreased as a function of price in all groups. Elasticity of demand did not vary across groups, but consumption was significantly lower in socially housed rats paired with a rat without access to cocaine. These data suggest that the presence of an abstaining peer decreases the reinforcing strength of cocaine, thus supporting the development of social interventions in drug abuse prevention and treatment programs.

  11. Food preparation patterns in German family households. An econometric approach with time budget data.

    PubMed

    Möser, Anke

    2010-08-01

    In Germany, the rising importance of out-of-home consumption, increasing usage of convenience products and decreasing knowledge of younger individuals how to prepare traditional dishes can be seen as obvious indicators for shifting patterns in food preparation. In this paper, econometric analyses are used to shed more light on the factors which may influence the time spent on food preparation in two-parent family households with children. Two time budget surveys, carried out 1991/92 and 2001/02 through the German National Statistical Office, provide the necessary data. Time budget data analyses reveal that over the last ten years the time spent on food preparation in Germany has decreased. The results point out that time resources of a household, for example gainful employment of the parents, significantly affect the amount of time spent on food preparation. The analysis confirms further that there is a more equal allocation of time spent on cooking, baking or laying the table between women and men in the last ten years. Due to changing attitudes and conceivably adaption of economic conditions, differences in time devoted to food preparation seem to have vanished between Eastern and Western Germany. Greater time spent on eating out in Germany as well as decreasing time spent on food preparation at home reveal that the food provisioning of families is no longer a primarily private task of the households themselves but needs more public attention and institutional offers and help. Among other points, the possibility of addressing mothers' lack of time as well as growing "food illiteracy" of children and young adults are discussed.

  12. Ethiopian wheat yield and yield gap estimation: A spatially explicit small area integrated data approach.

    PubMed

    Mann, Michael L; Warner, James M

    2017-02-01

    Despite the routine collection of annual agricultural surveys and significant advances in GIS and remote sensing products, little econometric research has integrated these data sources in estimating developing nations' agricultural yields. In this paper, we explore the determinants of wheat output per hectare in Ethiopia during the 2011-2013 principal Meher crop seasons at the kebele administrative area. Using a panel data approach, combining national agricultural field surveys with relevant GIS and remote sensing products, the model explains nearly 40% of the total variation in wheat output per hectare across the country. Reflecting on the high interannual variability in output per hectare, we explore whether these changes can be explained by weather, shocks to, and management of rain-fed agricultural systems. The model identifies specific contributors to wheat yields that include farm management techniques (e.g. area planted, improved seed, fertilizer, and irrigation), weather (e.g. rainfall), water availability (e.g. vegetation and moisture deficit indexes) and policy intervention. Our findings suggest that woredas produce between 9.8 and 86.5% of their locally attainable wheat yields given their altitude, weather conditions, terrain, and plant health. In conclusion, we believe the combination of field surveys with spatial data can be used to identify management priorities for improving production at a variety of administrative levels.

  13. Advanced planetary studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Results of planetary advanced studies and planning support are summarized. The scope of analyses includes cost estimation research, planetary mission performance, penetrator advanced studies, Mercury mission transport requirements, definition of super solar electric propulsion/solar sail mission discriminators, and advanced planning activities.

  14. Macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy: a simulated analysis of oil shocks in a development context

    SciTech Connect

    Usip, E.E.E.

    1984-01-01

    The precarious position of Nigeria in being a one-resource (oil) based economy in terms of revenue generation has become a major cause of concern for the experts and political pundits. In this study, the author seeks to explore further the empirical basis for this concern in two stages. First, a macro-econometric model of Nigeria was constructed and evaluated. The model highlights the various channels through which the oil sector influences the rest of the economy. Economic theory, econometric techniques, existing fund of knowledge in the practice, computer simulation, and the institutional framework of Nigeria were brought to bear upon the modeling process. In the second stage, the resulting simulation model was used to examine the sensitivity of the economy to the leading sector (oil) as well as the growth potential of Nigeria up to 1986. The crucial question that was addressed is: will the oil sector be able to support a continuing economic growth of Nigeria in the absence of policy initiatives to diversify the revenue base of the economy. Although the empirical findings are hypothetical, they do have far-reaching implications for Nigeria's growth prospects and political stability.

  15. ESTIMATION OF FUNCTIONALS OF SPARSE COVARIANCE MATRICES.

    PubMed

    Fan, Jianqing; Rigollet, Philippe; Wang, Weichen

    High-dimensional statistical tests often ignore correlations to gain simplicity and stability leading to null distributions that depend on functionals of correlation matrices such as their Frobenius norm and other ℓ r norms. Motivated by the computation of critical values of such tests, we investigate the difficulty of estimation the functionals of sparse correlation matrices. Specifically, we show that simple plug-in procedures based on thresholded estimators of correlation matrices are sparsity-adaptive and minimax optimal over a large class of correlation matrices. Akin to previous results on functional estimation, the minimax rates exhibit an elbow phenomenon. Our results are further illustrated in simulated data as well as an empirical study of data arising in financial econometrics.

  16. ESTIMATION OF FUNCTIONALS OF SPARSE COVARIANCE MATRICES

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Jianqing; Rigollet, Philippe; Wang, Weichen

    2016-01-01

    High-dimensional statistical tests often ignore correlations to gain simplicity and stability leading to null distributions that depend on functionals of correlation matrices such as their Frobenius norm and other ℓr norms. Motivated by the computation of critical values of such tests, we investigate the difficulty of estimation the functionals of sparse correlation matrices. Specifically, we show that simple plug-in procedures based on thresholded estimators of correlation matrices are sparsity-adaptive and minimax optimal over a large class of correlation matrices. Akin to previous results on functional estimation, the minimax rates exhibit an elbow phenomenon. Our results are further illustrated in simulated data as well as an empirical study of data arising in financial econometrics. PMID:26806986

  17. Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

    SciTech Connect

    Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

    2014-06-19

    The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependence is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.

  18. Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

    2014-06-01

    The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependence is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.

  19. The specification and estimation of technological change in electricity production

    SciTech Connect

    Kavanaugh, D.C.; Ashton, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    This study focuses on the rate of technological change in electricity production. The dominant role of fossil fuel-fired electricity production in the industry, coupled with the direct association with the emission of greenhouse gases, makes technology parameters particularly significant for several reasons. First, very long-run simulations of energy-economic paths at a global level require that technical progress occupy a place in the methodology for sound formulations that are vital in global emissions/energy policy analysis. Second, given the outlook for electricity generation being predominately coal-based, especially in developing economies around the world, the specification and measurement of technical change is essential for developing realistic long-run technology forecasts. Finally, industry or sector growth in productivity hinges partly on technical progress, and updated analysis will always be necessary to stay abreast of developments on this front, as well as for economic growth considerations in general. This study is based on empirical economic research on production functions in the electric utility industry. However, it advances a seldom used approach, called the {open_quotes}engineering-production function{close_quotes}, in contrast to the more common neoclassical approach used by economists. Combined with this approach is a major departure from the type of data used to conduct econometric estimations of production parameters. This research draws upon a consistent set of ex ante or {open_quotes}blueprint{close_quotes} data that better reflects planned, technical performance and cost data elements, in contrast to the more customary, expect type of data from actual firm/plant operations. The results from the examination of coal-fired technologies indicate the presence of technical change. Using data for the period from 1979 to 1989, we find technical change to be capital-augmenting at the rate of 1.8 percent per year.

  20. The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. NBER Working Paper No. 15794

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Angrist, Joshua; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen

    2010-01-01

    This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer'rs (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice.…

  1. Advances in Techniques for Tracking and Terminal State Estimation of a Goal Seeking Vehicle (The Target RV) via an Optimal BMD Intercept Vehicle Filter.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-03-01

    subsequently. Figure I presents a smoothed plot of the absolute error values x1(k) - x1 (k) for a sam- pling interval of at-0.625. I The optimal estimation...Seeking Vehicles," IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, Volume AC-13, Number 1, pp. 74-77, February 1968. 7. Meditch , J.S., Stochastic Optimal...Linear Estimation and Control, McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1969. 8. Meditch , J.S. and Hostetter, G.H., "Techniques for Initial Condi- tion Estimation in

  2. Perspectives on econometric modelling to inform policy: a UK qualitative case study of minimum unit pricing of alcohol

    PubMed Central

    Bond, Lyndal; Hilton, Shona

    2014-01-01

    Background: Novel policy interventions may lack evaluation-based evidence. Considerations to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) of alcohol in the UK were informed by econometric modelling (the ‘Sheffield model’). We aim to investigate policy stakeholders’ views of the utility of modelling studies for public health policy. Methods: In-depth qualitative interviews with 36 individuals involved in MUP policy debates (purposively sampled to include civil servants, politicians, academics, advocates and industry-related actors) were conducted and thematically analysed. Results: Interviewees felt familiar with modelling studies and often displayed detailed understandings of the Sheffield model. Despite this, many were uneasy about the extent to which the Sheffield model could be relied on for informing policymaking and preferred traditional evaluations. A tension was identified between this preference for post hoc evaluations and a desire for evidence derived from local data, with modelling seen to offer high external validity. MUP critics expressed concern that the Sheffield model did not adequately capture the ‘real life’ world of the alcohol market, which was conceptualized as a complex and, to some extent, inherently unpredictable system. Communication of modelling results was considered intrinsically difficult but presenting an appropriate picture of the uncertainties inherent in modelling was viewed as desirable. There was general enthusiasm for increased use of econometric modelling to inform future policymaking but an appreciation that such evidence should only form one input into the process. Conclusion: Modelling studies are valued by policymakers as they provide contextually relevant evidence for novel policies, but tensions exist with views of traditional evaluation-based evidence. PMID:24367068

  3. How to Estimate the Value of Service Reliability Improvements

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Michael J.; Mercurio, Matthew G.; Schellenberg, Josh A.; Eto, Joseph H.

    2010-06-08

    A robust methodology for estimating the value of service reliability improvements is presented. Although econometric models for estimating value of service (interruption costs) have been established and widely accepted, analysts often resort to applying relatively crude interruption cost estimation techniques in assessing the economic impacts of transmission and distribution investments. This paper first shows how the use of these techniques can substantially impact the estimated value of service improvements. A simple yet robust methodology that does not rely heavily on simplifying assumptions is presented. When a smart grid investment is proposed, reliability improvement is one of the most frequently cited benefits. Using the best methodology for estimating the value of this benefit is imperative. By providing directions on how to implement this methodology, this paper sends a practical, usable message to the industry.

  4. Fitting psychometric functions using a fixed-slope parameter: an advanced alternative for estimating odor thresholds with data generated by ASTM E679.

    PubMed

    Peng, Mei; Jaeger, Sara R; Hautus, Michael J

    2014-03-01

    Psychometric functions are predominately used for estimating detection thresholds in vision and audition. However, the requirement of large data quantities for fitting psychometric functions (>30 replications) reduces their suitability in olfactory studies because olfactory response data are often limited (<4 replications) due to the susceptibility of human olfactory receptors to fatigue and adaptation. This article introduces a new method for fitting individual-judge psychometric functions to olfactory data obtained using the current standard protocol-American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) E679. The slope parameter of the individual-judge psychometric function is fixed to be the same as that of the group function; the same-shaped symmetrical sigmoid function is fitted only using the intercept. This study evaluated the proposed method by comparing it with 2 available methods. Comparison to conventional psychometric functions (fitted slope and intercept) indicated that the assumption of a fixed slope did not compromise precision of the threshold estimates. No systematic difference was obtained between the proposed method and the ASTM method in terms of group threshold estimates or threshold distributions, but there were changes in the rank, by threshold, of judges in the group. Overall, the fixed-slope psychometric function is recommended for obtaining relatively reliable individual threshold estimates when the quantity of data is limited.

  5. GARCH modelling of covariance in dynamical estimation of inverse solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galka, Andreas; Yamashita, Okito; Ozaki, Tohru

    2004-12-01

    The problem of estimating unobserved states of spatially extended dynamical systems poses an inverse problem, which can be solved approximately by a recently developed variant of Kalman filtering; in order to provide the model of the dynamics with more flexibility with respect to space and time, we suggest to combine the concept of GARCH modelling of covariance, well known in econometrics, with Kalman filtering. We formulate this algorithm for spatiotemporal systems governed by stochastic diffusion equations and demonstrate its feasibility by presenting a numerical simulation designed to imitate the situation of the generation of electroencephalographic recordings by the human cortex.

  6. Systems GMM estimates of the health care spending and GDP relationship: a note.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Saten

    2013-06-01

    This paper utilizes the systems generalized method of moments (GMM) [Arellano and Bover (1995) J Econometrics 68:29-51; Blundell and Bond (1998) J Econometrics 87:115-143], and panel Granger causality [Hurlin and Venet (2001) Granger Causality tests in panel data models with fixed coefficients. Mime'o, University Paris IX], to investigate the health care spending and gross domestic product (GDP) relationship for organisation for economic co-operation and development countries over the period 1960-2007. The system GMM estimates confirm that the contribution of real GDP to health spending is significant and positive. The panel Granger causality tests imply that a bi-directional causality exists between health spending and GDP. To this end, policies aimed at raising health spending will eventually improve the well-being of the population in the long run.

  7. Estimation of carbon dioxide emissions per urban center link unit using data collected by the Advanced Traffic Information System in Daejeon, Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, B. Y.; Jung, H. J.; Bae, S. H.; Choi, C. U.

    2013-12-01

    CO2 emissions on roads in urban centers substantially affect global warming. It is important to quantify CO2 emissions in terms of the link unit in order to reduce these emissions on the roads. Therefore, in this study, we utilized real-time traffic data and attempted to develop a methodology for estimating CO2 emissions per link unit. Because of the recent development of the vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication technology, data from probe vehicles (PVs) can be collected and speed per link unit can be calculated. Among the existing emission calculation methodologies, mesoscale modeling, which is a representative modeling measurement technique, requires speed and traffic data per link unit. As it is not feasible to install fixed detectors at every link for traffic data collection, in this study, we developed a model for traffic volume estimation by utilizing the number of PVs that can be additionally collected when the PV data are collected. Multiple linear regression and an artificial neural network (ANN) were used for estimating the traffic volume. The independent variables and input data for each model are the number of PVs, travel time index (TTI), the number of lanes, and time slots. The result from the traffic volume estimate model shows that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ANN is 18.67%, thus proving that it is more effective. The ANN-based traffic volume estimation served as the basis for the calculation of emissions per link unit. The daily average emissions for Daejeon, where this study was based, were 2210.19 ton/day. By vehicle type, passenger cars accounted for 71.28% of the total emissions. By road, Gyeryongro emitted 125.48 ton/day, accounting for 5.68% of the total emission, the highest percentage of all roads. In terms of emissions per kilometer, Hanbatdaero had the highest emission volume, with 7.26 ton/day/km on average. This study proves that real-time traffic data allow an emissions estimate in terms of the link unit

  8. Advancing the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) to Accommodate Atmospheric River Influences Using a Hierarchical Estimation Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, C.; Cifelli, R.; Zamora, R. J.; Schneider, T.

    2014-12-01

    The PRISM monthly climatology has been widely used by various agencies for diverse purposes. In the River Forecast Centers (RFCs), the PRISM monthly climatology is used to support tasks such as QPE, or quality control of point precipitation observation, and fine tune QPFs. Validation studies by forecasters and researchers have shown that interpolation involving PRISM climatology can effectually reduce the estimation bias for the locations where moderate or little orographic phenomena occur. However, many studies have pointed out limitations in PRISM monthly climatology. These limitations are especially apparent in storm events with fast-moving wet air masses or with storm tracks that are different from climatology. In order to upgrade PRISM climatology so it possesses the capability to characterize the climatology of storm events, it is critical to integrate large-scale atmospheric conditions with the original PRISM predictor variables and to simulate them at a temporal resolution higher than monthly. To this end, a simple, flexible, and powerful framework for precipitation estimation modeling that can be applied to very large data sets is thus developed. In this project, a decision tree based estimation structure was developed to perform the aforementioned variable integration work. Three Atmospheric River events (ARs) were selected to explore the hierarchical relationships among these variables and how these relationships shape the event-based precipitation distribution pattern across California. Several atmospheric variables, including vertically Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT), temperature, zonal wind (u), meridional wind (v), and omega (ω), were added to enhance the sophistication of the tree-based structure in estimating precipitation. To develop a direction-based climatology, the directions the ARs moving over the Pacific Ocean were also calculated and parameterized within the tree estimation structure. The results show that the involvement of the

  9. The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China--An econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun

    2016-01-01

    The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply.

  10. Advanced Diagnostics and Life Estimation of Extruded Dielectric Cable: Nonproprietary Results Related to Cross-Linked Polyethylene and Ethylene Propylene Rubber Insulated Shielded Cables

    SciTech Connect

    G. Toman

    2006-03-31

    This report describes research on accelerated aging and diagnostic testing of cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) insulation and an earlier test program on ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) cables. The XLPE research subjected cable specimens to accelerated cable life tests (ACLTs) and assessed the specimens with six nondestructive electrical tests and two destructive tests. The EPR program subjected EPR insulation to a similar accelerated aging protocol but focused on breakdown voltage to assess aging. Objectives ? To correlate advanced diagnostic test data with time-to-failure data as a means of determining the value of each diagnostic test for cable condition assessment and future life predictions (XLPE program) ? To perform accelerated aging tests of EPR insulated cables under various controlled conditions of temperature and voltage stress in a wet environment (EPR program) ? To ascertain the relative influence of temperature and voltage stress on aging (EPR program)

  11. Inequality, race, and mortality in U.S. cities: a political and econometric review of Deaton and Lubotsky (56:6, 1139-1153, 2003).

    PubMed

    Ash, Michael; Robinson, Dean E

    2009-06-01

    Our replication of Deaton and Lubotsky's [(2003). Mortality, inequality and race in American cities and states. Social Science & Medicine, 56.] study "Mortality, Inequality and Race in American Cities and States" identifies a coding error in the econometric analysis in the original paper. Correcting the error changes the basic results of the paper with respect to inequality and mortality in a relevant and substantive way. We also propose an alternative interpretation of the other main result of the paper regarding racial composition and mortality.

  12. Estimated Prevalence of Cryptococcus Antigenemia (CrAg) among HIV-Infected Adults with Advanced Immunosuppression in Namibia Justifies Routine Screening and Preemptive Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Makumbi, Boniface; Purfield, Anne; Ndjavera, Christophine; Mutandi, Gram; Maher, Andrew; Kaindjee-Tjituka, Francina; Kaplan, Jonathan E.; Park, Benjamin J.; Lowrance, David W.

    2016-01-01

    Background Cryptococcal meningitis is common and associated with high mortality among HIV infected persons. The World Health Organization recommends that routine Cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening in ART-naïve adults with a CD4+ count <100 cells/μL followed by pre-emptive antifungal therapy for CrAg-positive patients be considered where CrAg prevalence is ≥3%. The prevalence of CrAg among HIV adults in Namibia is unknown. We estimated CrAg prevalence among HIV-infected adults receiving care in Namibia for the purpose of informing routine screening strategies. Methods The study design was cross-sectional. De-identified plasma specimens collected for routine CD4+ testing from HIV-infected adults enrolled in HIV care at 181 public health facilities from November 2013 to January 2014 were identified at the national reference laboratory. Remnant plasma from specimens with CD4+ counts <200 cells/μL were sampled and tested for CrAg using the IMMY® Lateral Flow Assay. CrAg prevalence was estimated and assessed for associations with age, sex, and CD4+ count. Results A total of 825 specimens were tested for CrAg. The median (IQR) age of patients from whom specimens were collected was 38 (32–46) years, 45.9% were female and 62.9% of the specimens had CD4 <100 cells/μL. CrAg prevalence was 3.3% overall and 3.9% and 2.3% among samples with CD4+ counts of CD4+<100 cells/μL and 100–200 cells/μL, respectively. CrAg positivity was significantly higher among patients with CD4+ cells/μL < 50 (7.2%, P = 0.001) relative to those with CD4 cells/μL 50–200 (2.2%). Conclusion This is the first study to estimate CrAg prevalence among HIV-infected patients in Namibia. CrAg prevalence of ≥3.0% among patients with CD4+<100 cells/μL justifies routine CrAg screening and preemptive treatment among HIV-infected in Namibia in line with WHO recommendations. Patients with CD4+<100 cells/μL have a significantly greater risk for CrAg positivity. Revised guidelines for ART in

  13. An econometric model of the U.S. secondary copper industry: Recycling versus disposal

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slade, M.E.

    1980-01-01

    In this paper, a theoretical model of secondary recovery is developed that integrates microeconomic theories of production and cost with a dynamic model of scrap generation and accumulation. The model equations are estimated for the U.S. secondary copper industry and used to assess the impacts that various policies and future events have on copper recycling rates. The alternatives considered are: subsidies for secondary production, differing energy costs, and varying ore quality in primary production. ?? 1990.

  14. Econometric analysis of the changing effects in wind strength and significant wave height on the probability of casualty in shipping.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Sabine; Kumar, Shashi; Sakurada, Yuri; Shen, Jiajun

    2011-05-01

    This study uses econometric models to measure the effect of significant wave height and wind strength on the probability of casualty and tests whether these effects changed. While both effects are in particular relevant for stability and strength calculations of vessels, it is also helpful for the development of ship construction standards in general to counteract increased risk resulting from changing oceanographic conditions. The authors analyzed a unique dataset of 3.2 million observations from 20,729 individual vessels in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions gathered during the period 1979-2007. The results show that although there is a seasonal pattern in the probability of casualty especially during the winter months, the effect of wind strength and significant wave height do not follow the same seasonal pattern. Additionally, over time, significant wave height shows an increasing effect in January, March, May and October while wind strength shows a decreasing effect, especially in January, March and May. The models can be used to simulate relationships and help understand the relationships. This is of particular interest to naval architects and ship designers as well as multilateral agencies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that establish global standards in ship design and construction.

  15. The relationship of sugar to population-level diabetes prevalence: an econometric analysis of repeated cross-sectional data.

    PubMed

    Basu, Sanjay; Yoffe, Paula; Hills, Nancy; Lustig, Robert H

    2013-01-01

    While experimental and observational studies suggest that sugar intake is associated with the development of type 2 diabetes, independent of its role in obesity, it is unclear whether alterations in sugar intake can account for differences in diabetes prevalence among overall populations. Using econometric models of repeated cross-sectional data on diabetes and nutritional components of food from 175 countries, we found that every 150 kcal/person/day increase in sugar availability (about one can of soda/day) was associated with increased diabetes prevalence by 1.1% (p <0.001) after testing for potential selection biases and controlling for other food types (including fibers, meats, fruits, oils, cereals), total calories, overweight and obesity, period-effects, and several socioeconomic variables such as aging, urbanization and income. No other food types yielded significant individual associations with diabetes prevalence after controlling for obesity and other confounders. The impact of sugar on diabetes was independent of sedentary behavior and alcohol use, and the effect was modified but not confounded by obesity or overweight. Duration and degree of sugar exposure correlated significantly with diabetes prevalence in a dose-dependent manner, while declines in sugar exposure correlated with significant subsequent declines in diabetes rates independently of other socioeconomic, dietary and obesity prevalence changes. Differences in sugar availability statistically explain variations in diabetes prevalence rates at a population level that are not explained by physical activity, overweight or obesity.

  16. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-06-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.

  17. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-01-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise. PMID:21750601

  18. A statistical test of the stability assumption inherent in empirical estimates of economic depreciation.

    PubMed

    Shriver, K A

    1986-01-01

    Realistic estimates of economic depreciation are required for analyses of tax policy, economic growth and production, and national income and wealth. THe purpose of this paper is to examine the stability assumption underlying the econometric derivation of empirical estimates of economic depreciation for industrial machinery and and equipment. The results suggest that a reasonable stability of economic depreciation rates of decline may exist over time. Thus, the assumption of a constant rate of economic depreciation may be a reasonable approximation for further empirical economic analyses.

  19. Disentangling the influence of cell phone usage in the dilemma zone: An econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Eluru, Naveen; Yasmin, Shamsunnahar

    2016-11-01

    This paper focuses on developing an analysis framework to study the impact of cell phone treatment (cell phone type and call status) on driver behavior in the presence of a dilemma zone. Specifically, we examine how the treatment influences the driver maneuver decision at the intersection (stop or cross) and the eventual success of the maneuver. For a stop maneuver, success is defined as stopping before the stop line. Similarly, for a cross maneuver, success is defined as clearing the intersection safely before the light turns red. The eventual success or failure of the driver's decision process is dependent on the factors that affected the maneuver decision. Hence it is important to recognize the interconnectedness of the stop or cross decision with its eventual success (or failure). Toward this end, we formulate and estimate a joint framework to analyze the stop/cross decision with its eventual success (or failure) simultaneously. The study is conducted based on driving simulator data provided online for the 2014 Transportation Research Board Data Contest at http://depts.washington.edu/hfsm/upload.php. The model is estimated to analyze drivers' behavior at the onset of yellow by employing exogenous variables from three broad categories: driver characteristics, cell phone attributes and driving attributes. We also generate probability surfaces to identify dilemma zone distribution associated with different cell phone treatment types. The plots clearly illustrate the impact of various cellphone treatments on driver dilemma zone behavior.

  20. Power law distribution in high frequency financial data? An econometric analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todorova, Lora; Vogt, Bodo

    2011-11-01

    Power law distributions are very common in natural sciences. We analyze high frequency financial data from XETRA and the NYSE using maximum likelihood estimation and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to test whether the power law hypothesis holds also for these data. We find that the universality and scale invariance properties of the power law are violated. Furthermore, the returns of Daimler Chrysler and SAP traded simultaneously on both exchanges follow a power law at one exchange, but not at the other. These results raise some questions about the no-arbitrage condition. Finally, we find that an exponential function provides a better fit for the tails of the sample distributions than a power law function.

  1. The effect of neighbourhood mortality shocks on fertility preferences: a spatial econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Owoo, Nkechi S; Agyei-Mensah, Samuel; Onuoha, Emily

    2015-07-01

    According to the demographic transition theory, fertility rates fall in response to declines in child mortality rates. Although national statistics indicate that child mortality rates have been declining over time, Ghana's fertility rates appear to have stalled. This paper hypothesises that women's fertility behaviours may be more responsive to child mortality experiences at more localised levels. Using all rounds of the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (1988-2008) and employing a variety of spatial and empirical estimation techniques, results indicate that in addition to own-child mortality, neighbourhood child mortality shocks are also a determinant of women's fertility in Ghana. Women in neighbourhoods with large child mortality shocks may desire more children as an "insurance" against future losses, as a result of their increased perceptions of own-child mortality risks.

  2. An econometric analysis of the effects of the penalty points system driver's license in Spain.

    PubMed

    Castillo-Manzano, José I; Castro-Nuño, Mercedes; Pedregal, Diego J

    2010-07-01

    This article seeks to quantify the effects of the penalty points system driver's license during the 18-month period following its coming into force. This is achieved by means of univariate and multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. A detailed intervention analysis is carried out in order to test for the effects and their duration of the introduction of the penalty points system driver's license in Spain. Other variables, mainly indicators of the level of economic activity in Spain, are also considered. Among the main effects, we can mention an average reduction of almost 12.6% in the number of deaths in highway accidents. It would take at least 2 years for that effect to disappear. For the rest of the safety indicator variables (vehicle occupants injured in highway accidents and vehicle occupants injured in accidents built-up areas) the effects disappeared 1 year after the law coming into force.

  3. An econometric analysis of screening and treatment of patients with suspected Chlamydia.

    PubMed

    Tavakoli, Manouche; Craig, Ann-Marie; Malek, Mo

    2002-02-01

    Chlamydia trachomatis is probably the most common sexually transmitted disease in the Western industrialised countries with devastating consequences. However, it is an infection that can be so easily treated. There are over 50 million new cases occurring each year. In the United States chlamydia is seen as the most common and costly of the bacterial sexually transmitted diseases (STD), with approximately 4 million new cases occurring each year at an estimated total cost of $2.4 billion. The characteristic of this infection is its difficulty of detection that promotes its spread and making its prediction rather complex. Chlamydial infections are commonly asymptomatic or cause mild or non-specific symptoms and signs, which are not easily detected. Approximately 70% of women with endocervical infections and up to 50% of men with urethral infections are asymptomatic and thus not likely to seek medical care. Chlamydia has become known as the "silent epidemic". It is the more frequently identifiable single cause of pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), occurring in an estimated 15-40% of women. The primary objective of the study was to identify factors and quantify their contribution to the risk of being infected with Chlamydia and to construct an easy to use friendly method for early detection. The importance of developing some means of early detection is vital and previous studies suggest that selective screening might be one solution. A logit model was fitted to three broad variables: behavioural, patients' characteristics, and signs/symptoms noted by patient. The age of the women, the number of sexual partners over the past year, previous history of sexually transmitted disease, the use of barrier contraception and patients' and their partners' signs and symptoms were found to be among the most important variables. Such a model should allow patients who are in a high-risk category, allowing appropriate treatment.

  4. Application of modern tests for stationarity to single-trial MEG data: transferring powerful statistical tools from econometrics to neuroscience.

    PubMed

    Kipiński, Lech; König, Reinhard; Sielużycki, Cezary; Kordecki, Wojciech

    2011-10-01

    Stationarity is a crucial yet rarely questioned assumption in the analysis of time series of magneto- (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). One key drawback of the commonly used tests for stationarity of encephalographic time series is the fact that conclusions on stationarity are only indirectly inferred either from the Gaussianity (e.g. the Shapiro-Wilk test or Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) or the randomness of the time series and the absence of trend using very simple time-series models (e.g. the sign and trend tests by Bendat and Piersol). We present a novel approach to the analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series by applying modern statistical methods which were specifically developed in econometrics to verify the hypothesis that a time series is stationary. We report our findings of the application of three different tests of stationarity--the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Schin (KPSS) test for trend or mean stationarity, the Phillips-Perron (PP) test for the presence of a unit root and the White test for homoscedasticity--on an illustrative set of MEG data. For five stimulation sessions, we found already for short epochs of duration of 250 and 500 ms that, although the majority of the studied epochs of single MEG trials were usually mean-stationary (KPSS test and PP test), they were classified as nonstationary due to their heteroscedasticity (White test). We also observed that the presence of external auditory stimulation did not significantly affect the findings regarding the stationarity of the data. We conclude that the combination of these tests allows a refined analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series.

  5. Advanced planetary studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    Results of planetary advanced studies and planning support provided by Science Applications, Inc. staff members to Earth and Planetary Exploration Division, OSSA/NASA, for the period 1 February 1981 to 30 April 1982 are summarized. The scope of analyses includes cost estimation, planetary missions performance, solar system exploration committee support, Mars program planning, Galilean satellite mission concepts, and advanced propulsion data base. The work covers 80 man-months of research. Study reports and related publications are included in a bibliography section.

  6. Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals. II. An ARCH econometric-like modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ausloos, Marcel; Nedic, Olgica; Dekanski, Aleksandar; Mrowinski, Maciej J.; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

    2017-02-01

    This paper aims at providing a statistical model for the preferred behavior of authors submitting a paper to a scientific journal. The electronic submission of (about 600) papers to the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society has been recorded for every day from Jan. 01, 2013 till Dec. 31, 2014, together with the acceptance or rejection paper fate. Seasonal effects and editor roles (through desk rejection and subfield editors) are examined. An ARCH-like econometric model is derived stressing the main determinants of the favorite day-of-week process.

  7. Comment on "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming" by Beenstock et al. (2012) - some hazards in econometric modelling of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pretis, F.; Hendry, D. F.

    2013-10-01

    We outline six important hazards that can be encountered in econometric modelling of time-series data, and apply that analysis to demonstrate errors in the empirical modelling of climate data in Beenstock et al. (2012). We show that the claim made in Beenstock et al. (2012) as to the different degrees of integrability of CO2 and temperature is incorrect. In particular, the level of integration is not constant and not intrinsic to the process. Further, we illustrate that the measure of anthropogenic forcing in Beenstock et al. (2012), a constructed "anthropogenic anomaly", is not appropriate regardless of the time-series properties of the data.

  8. Development of advanced acreage estimation methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guseman, L. F., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

    1982-01-01

    The development of an accurate and efficient algorithm for analyzing the structure of MSS data, the application of the Akaiki information criterion to mixture models, and a research plan to delineate some of the technical issues and associated tasks in the area of rice scene radiation characterization are discussed. The AMOEBA clustering algorithm is refined and documented.

  9. Advanced Physiological Estimation of Cognitive Status

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-05-24

    Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 15. SUBJECT TERMS fatigue mental workload cognitive status EEG machine learning algorithms Leonard J. Trejo...Information Transfer (NOIT)” • ARO Proposal No. 56469-LS • Three-year basic research with UCLA team 2. “ EEG -guided Input Lateralization and Hemispheric...Activation with Neurofeedback for Display Data Control and Apprehension.” • ARO Proposal No. 59502-LS • One-year Infrastructure technology transfer to

  10. Advanced Composite Cost Estimating Manual. Volume I

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1976-08-01

    process. Bends have been classified under two major categories: Straight Bends and Curved Bends. Straight bends have bend lines that follow a straight line ...In addition, straiglit bends may be described as male (layed up on a male tool) or female (layed up on a female tool). Curved bends have bend lines ...layup operations. When lay- ing up on bends, extra effort is required to smooth down plies along the bend line . The amount of extra effort required

  11. Geostatistics and remote sensing as predictive tools of tick distribution: a cokriging system to estimate Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) habitat suitability in the United States and Canada from advanced very high resolution radiometer satellite imagery.

    PubMed

    Estrada-Peña, A

    1998-11-01

    Geostatistics (cokriging) was used to model the cross-correlated information between satellite-derived vegetation and climate variables and the distribution of the tick Ixodes scapularis (Say) in the Nearctic. Output was used to map the habitat suitability for I. scapularis on a continental scale. A data base of the localities where I. scapularis was collected in the United States and Canada was developed from a total of 346 published and geocoded records. This data base was cross-correlated with satellite pictures from the advanced very high resolution radiometer sensor obtained from 1984 to 1994 on the Nearctic at 10-d intervals, with a resolution of 8 km per pixel. Eight climate and vegetation variables were tabulated from this imagery. A cokriging system was generated to exploit satellite-derived data and to estimate the distribution of I. scapularis. Results obtained using 2 vegetation (standard NDVI) and 4 temperature variables closely agreed with actual records of the tick, with a sensitivity of 0.97 and a specificity of 0.89, with 6 and 4% of false-positive and false-negative sites, respectively. Such statistical analysis can be used to guide field work toward the correct interpretation of the distribution limits of I. scapularis and can also be used to make predictions about the impact of global change on tick range.

  12. Geostatistics and remote sensing using NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery as predictive tools in tick distribution and habitat suitability estimations for Boophilus microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) in South America. National Oceanographic and Atmosphere Administration-Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer.

    PubMed

    Estrada-Peña, A

    1999-02-01

    Remote sensing based on NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmosphere Administration) satellite imagery was used, together with geostatistics (cokriging) to model the correlation between the temperature and vegetation variables and the distribution of the cattle tick, Boophilus microplus (Canestrini), in the Neotropical region. The results were used to map the B. microplus habitat suitability on a continental scale. A database of B. microplus capture localities was used, which was tabulated with the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) images from the NOAA satellite series. They were obtained at 10 days intervals between 1983 and 1994, with an 8 km resolution. A cokriging system was generated to extrapolate the results. The data for habitat suitability obtained through two vegetation and four temperature variables were strongly correlated with the known distribution of B. microplus (sensitivity 0.91; specificity 0.88) and provide a good estimation of the tick habitat suitability. This model could be used as a guide to the correct interpretation of the distribution limits of B. microplus. It can be also used to prepare eradication campaigns or to make predictions about the effects of global change on the distribution of the parasite.

  13. Heterogeneous autoregressive model with structural break using nearest neighbor truncation volatility estimators for DAX.

    PubMed

    Chin, Wen Cheong; Lee, Min Cherng; Yap, Grace Lee Ching

    2016-01-01

    High frequency financial data modelling has become one of the important research areas in the field of financial econometrics. However, the possible structural break in volatile financial time series often trigger inconsistency issue in volatility estimation. In this study, we propose a structural break heavy-tailed heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) volatility econometric model with the enhancement of jump-robust estimators. The breakpoints in the volatility are captured by dummy variables after the detection by Bai-Perron sequential multi breakpoints procedure. In order to further deal with possible abrupt jump in the volatility, the jump-robust volatility estimators are composed by using the nearest neighbor truncation approach, namely the minimum and median realized volatility. Under the structural break improvements in both the models and volatility estimators, the empirical findings show that the modified HAR model provides the best performing in-sample and out-of-sample forecast evaluations as compared with the standard HAR models. Accurate volatility forecasts have direct influential to the application of risk management and investment portfolio analysis.

  14. Estimation of the Effects of a Ship’s Steaming on the Failure Rate of Its Equipment: An Application of Econometric Analysis.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-04-01

    1976) 1976, (Published in Journal of Legal Studies. Vol. (Published in Defense Manpower Policy (Richard V. 5. No. 2) PP 152 L. Cooper , ad.), The Rand...Simpson. Williamt R., "The Aceelerometr Methods, October 1076). AD ACM4 442 PP 231 of Obtaining Aircraft Perfermance from Flight Test VAIlsN. Ommand P...Dependence and Inter-State Cooperation ! The Case of Sub’Selsaran Africa." 141 pp.. Jan 1960 11e11e4. Kenneth G., "The Soviet Involvement in thhe OgdID War

  15. Advances in hypersonic vehicle synthesis with application to studies of advanced thermal protection system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ardema, Mark D.

    1995-01-01

    This report summarizes the work entitled 'Advances in Hypersonic Vehicle Synthesis with Application to Studies of Advanced Thermal Protection Systems.' The effort was in two areas: (1) development of advanced methods of trajectory and propulsion system optimization; and (2) development of advanced methods of structural weight estimation. The majority of the effort was spent in the trajectory area.

  16. Applying econometric techniques to hydrological problems in a large basin: Quantifying the rainfall-discharge relationship in the Burdekin, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarvis, Diane; Stoeckl, Natalie; Chaiechi, Taha

    2013-07-01

    This study seeks to explore the relationship between rainfall and river discharge within a large river basin flowing into the waters surrounding the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), and to investigate the best method of measuring the relationship. This aim is addressed by focusing on three specific research questions: (A) Has there been any evidence that global climate change has impacted on either rainfall or river discharge resulting in any change to the relationship between these variables over time? (B) What is the best measure of rainfall to be used to quantify the rainfall-discharge relationship, including the optimal number of rain stations to be included in the sample? (C) What is the optimal temporal scale for measuring the relationship (ranging from fine scale monthly data, medium scale quarterly data, and coarse scale annual data)? Modern econometric time series techniques are utilised, and compared with results using an alternate technique developed by researchers from the bio-physical sciences; the widely used Thiessen Polygon method. Firstly, stationarity testing, using econometric unit root tests, did not find evidence to suggest that the data are non-stationary. Evidently, climate change has not had a measurable impact on rainfall or river discharge in the region during the period covered by this study. Secondly, the analysis shows that the when dealing with fairly simple models with a fairly small number of explanatory variables, those which best represent the river-discharge relationship are those using the coarser scales (both geographic and temporal). In other words, stronger and more robust results are derived from models using fewer rain stations, and annual data (rather than quarterly or monthly data). This approach provides a viable alternative that may be very useful in data-poor environments when it is not possible to use other more data-hungry modelling approaches. The econometric models provided a better explanation of the relationship than the

  17. Is the way young people drive a reflection of the way their parents drive? An econometric study of the relation between parental risk and their children's risk.

    PubMed

    Lahatte, Agénor; Le Pape, Marie-Clémence

    2008-06-01

    This article aims to investigate parental influence on high-risk behavior by young people. Although research on the topic of perception of risk demonstrates that it is socially constructed, the role of the family in this construction has rarely been studied. Using a French national survey of more than 1,200 young drivers between the ages of 18 and 25, and their parents, we attempt to understand the transmission of risk within families. Our econometric study shows that parents influence both the practices and representations of their children. When parental norms and values are transmitted, they are by no means accepted in a wholly passive way. Indeed, the parental model is in competition with other models that originate from both inside the family (brothers and sisters) and outside it (instructors). Furthermore, parental influence decreases over time as young people become more experienced drivers and construct their own identity with regard to risk.

  18. Advanced Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coles, Mike; Nelms, Rick

    1996-01-01

    Describes a study that explores the depth and breadth of scientific facts, principles, and procedures which are required in the Advanced General National Vocational Qualifications (GNVQ) science through comparison with GCE Advanced level. The final report takes account of the updated 1996 version of GNVQ science. (DDR)

  19. Travel cost demand model based river recreation benefit estimates with on-site and household surveys: Comparative results and a correction procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loomis, John

    2003-04-01

    Past recreation studies have noted that on-site or visitor intercept surveys are subject to over-sampling of avid users (i.e., endogenous stratification) and have offered econometric solutions to correct for this. However, past papers do not estimate the empirical magnitude of the bias in benefit estimates with a real data set, nor do they compare the corrected estimates to benefit estimates derived from a population sample. This paper empirically examines the magnitude of the recreation benefits per trip bias by comparing estimates from an on-site river visitor intercept survey to a household survey. The difference in average benefits is quite large, with the on-site visitor survey yielding 24 per day trip, while the household survey yields 9.67 per day trip. A simple econometric correction for endogenous stratification in our count data model lowers the benefit estimate to $9.60 per day trip, a mean value nearly identical and not statistically different from the household survey estimate.

  20. An Analytical Cost Estimation Procedure

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    Econometrics - Classic and Contemporary by R. E. Berndt, Addison- Wesley,1991. [4] An Introduction to Mathematical Economics - Methods and Applications by G.C...Archibald and R.G. Lipsey , Harper & Row, 1976. 8 Appendix Overview Of Data Storage in PACE by Jim Wilson, Institute for Defense Analyses PACE uses

  1. Advanced Microsensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    This video looks at a spinoff application of the technology from advanced microsensors -- those that monitor and determine conditions of spacecraft like the Space Shuttle. The application featured is concerned with the monitoring of the health of premature babies.

  2. Explaining the variation in elasticity estimates of gasoline demand in the United States: A meta-analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Espey, M.

    1996-12-01

    Many econometric studies of gasoline demand have been conducted over the years when fuel prices where high and concerns about energy conservation and security of supply were prominent. Studies were motivated by interest in gasoline consumers` sensitivity to fuel price changes, for the insight this might give in explaining cross country differences in gas consumption and driving and in predicting the impact of fuel tax changes on driving, fuel consumption and government revenue collections. The author used meta-analysis to determine if there are factors that systematically affect price and income elasticity estimates in studies of gasoline demand in the United States.

  3. New Methodology for Estimating Fuel Economy by Vehicle Class

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, Shih-Miao; Dabbs, Kathryn; Hwang, Ho-Ling

    2011-01-01

    Office of Highway Policy Information to develop a new methodology to generate annual estimates of average fuel efficiency and number of motor vehicles registered by vehicle class for Table VM-1 of the Highway Statistics annual publication. This paper describes the new methodology developed under this effort and compares the results of the existing manual method and the new systematic approach. The methodology developed under this study takes a two-step approach. First, the preliminary fuel efficiency rates are estimated based on vehicle stock models for different classes of vehicles. Then, a reconciliation model is used to adjust the initial fuel consumption rates from the vehicle stock models and match the VMT information for each vehicle class and the reported total fuel consumption. This reconciliation model utilizes a systematic approach that produces documentable and reproducible results. The basic framework utilizes a mathematical programming formulation to minimize the deviations between the fuel economy estimates published in the previous year s Highway Statistics and the results from the vehicle stock models, subject to the constraint that fuel consumptions for different vehicle classes must sum to the total fuel consumption estimate published in Table MF-21 of the current year Highway Statistics. The results generated from this new approach provide a smoother time series for the fuel economies by vehicle class. It also utilizes the most up-to-date and best available data with sound econometric models to generate MPG estimates by vehicle class.

  4. Quantum Estimation, meet Computational Statistics; Computational Statistics, meet Quantum Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrie, Chris; Granade, Chris; Combes, Joshua

    2013-03-01

    Quantum estimation, that is, post processing data to obtain classical descriptions of quantum states and processes, is an intractable problem--scaling exponentially with the number of interacting systems. Thankfully there is an entire field, Computational Statistics, devoted to designing algorithms to estimate probabilities for seemingly intractable problems. So, why not look to the most advanced machine learning algorithms for quantum estimation tasks? We did. I'll describe how we adapted and combined machine learning methodologies to obtain an online learning algorithm designed to estimate quantum states and processes.

  5. Recent advances in childhood vitiligo.

    PubMed

    Silverberg, Nanette B

    2014-01-01

    Vitiligo is an autoimmune depigmentation disorder that is estimated to affect about .5% of the worldwide population. Half of all cases begin in childhood. A variety of advances occurred in the past two decades that have enhanced the management of childhood vitiligo. This contribution reviews recent advances in vitiligo, including a better understanding of the pathogenesis and autoimmune comorbidities, description of the psychological comorbidities, a broader range of therapeutic options.

  6. Advancing Reflectrometry

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-05-21

    transmissions, was first demonstrated using Global Navigation Satellite System ( GNSS ) reflections. Recently, reflectometry has been extended to digital... GNSS +R workshop provided an opportunity for engineers and Earth scientists to assess the state of the art, demonstrate new applications, and discuss...18 Eos, Vol. 94, No. 21, 21 May 2013 MEETING -.~ Advancing Reflectometry Workshop on Renectometry Using GNSS and Other Signals of Opportunity

  7. Technological Advancements

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Mike

    2010-01-01

    The influx of technology has brought significant improvements to school facilities. Many of those advancements can be found in classrooms, but when students head down the hall to use the washrooms, they are likely to find a host of technological innovations that have improved conditions in that part of the building. This article describes modern…

  8. Research Advances

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Angela G.

    2004-01-01

    Research advances, a new feature in Journal of Chemical Engineering that brings information about innovations in current areas of research to high school and college science faculty with an intent to provide educators with timely descriptions of latest progress in research that can be integrated into existing courses to update course content and…

  9. Estimating economic value of agricultural water under changing conditions and the effects of spatial aggregation.

    PubMed

    Medellín-Azuara, Josué; Harou, Julien J; Howitt, Richard E

    2010-11-01

    Given the high proportion of water used for agriculture in certain regions, the economic value of agricultural water can be an important tool for water management and policy development. This value is quantified using economic demand curves for irrigation water. Such demand functions show the incremental contribution of water to agricultural production. Water demand curves are estimated using econometric or optimisation techniques. Calibrated agricultural optimisation models allow the derivation of demand curves using smaller datasets than econometric models. This paper introduces these subject areas then explores the effect of spatial aggregation (upscaling) on the valuation of water for irrigated agriculture. A case study from the Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin in North Mexico investigates differences in valuation at farm and regional aggregated levels under four scenarios: technological change, warm-dry climate change, changes in agricultural commodity prices, and water costs for agriculture. The scenarios consider changes due to external shocks or new policies. Positive mathematical programming (PMP), a calibrated optimisation method, is the deductive valuation method used. An exponential cost function is compared to the quadratic cost functions typically used in PMP. Results indicate that the economic value of water at the farm level and the regionally aggregated level are similar, but that the variability and distributional effects of each scenario are affected by aggregation. Moderately aggregated agricultural production models are effective at capturing average-farm adaptation to policy changes and external shocks. Farm-level models best reveal the distribution of scenario impacts.

  10. Attitude Estimation or Quaternion Estimation?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Markley, F. Landis

    2003-01-01

    The attitude of spacecraft is represented by a 3x3 orthogonal matrix with unity determinant, which belongs to the three-dimensional special orthogonal group SO(3). The fact that all three-parameter representations of SO(3) are singular or discontinuous for certain attitudes has led to the use of higher-dimensional nonsingular parameterizations, especially the four-component quaternion. In attitude estimation, we are faced with the alternatives of using an attitude representation that is either singular or redundant. Estimation procedures fall into three broad classes. The first estimates a three-dimensional representation of attitude deviations from a reference attitude parameterized by a higher-dimensional nonsingular parameterization. The deviations from the reference are assumed to be small enough to avoid any singularity or discontinuity of the three-dimensional parameterization. The second class, which estimates a higher-dimensional representation subject to enough constraints to leave only three degrees of freedom, is difficult to formulate and apply consistently. The third class estimates a representation of SO(3) with more than three dimensions, treating the parameters as independent. We refer to the most common member of this class as quaternion estimation, to contrast it with attitude estimation. We analyze the first and third of these approaches in the context of an extended Kalman filter with simplified kinematics and measurement models.

  11. Advanced Combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Holcomb, Gordon R.

    2013-03-11

    The activity reported in this presentation is to provide the mechanical and physical property information needed to allow rational design, development and/or choice of alloys, manufacturing approaches, and environmental exposure and component life models to enable oxy-fuel combustion boilers to operate at Ultra-Supercritical (up to 650{degrees}C & between 22-30 MPa) and/or Advanced Ultra-Supercritical conditions (760{degrees}C & 35 MPa).

  12. The impact of child health and nutrition on education in developing countries: theory, econometric issues, and recent empirical evidence.

    PubMed

    Glewwe, Paul

    2005-06-01

    Analysis of the impact of child health and nutrition on subsequent school performance is hampered by many difficulties. Research using retrospective data is complicated by the possibility that unobserved factors may determine both nutrition and education outcomes, which will generate correlation between these two outcomes that is not necessarily causal. Randomized trials offer a clearer method for identifying causal relationships, but they are relatively rare and encounter several difficulties in practice. This paper examines theory, estimation strategies, and recent empirical evidence to assess the current state of knowledge on the impact of child health and nutrition on education outcomes in developing countries.

  13. An econometric analysis of the mental-health effects of major events in the life of older individuals.

    PubMed

    Lindeboom, Maarten; Portrait, France; van den Berg, Gerard J

    2002-09-01

    Major events in the life of an older individual, such as retirement, a significant decrease in income, death of the spouse, disability, and a move to a nursing home, may affect the mental-health status of the individual. For example, the individual may enter a prolonged depression. We investigate this using unique longitudinal panel data that track labor market behavior, health status, and major life events, over time. To deal with endogenous aspects of these events we apply fixed effects estimation methods. We find some strikingly large effects of certain events on the occurrence of depression. We relate the results to the health care and labor market policy towards older individuals.

  14. Computational Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fung, Maria G.; Latulippe, Christine L.

    2010-01-01

    Elementary school teachers are responsible for constructing the foundation of number sense in youngsters, and so it is recommended that teacher-training programs include an emphasis on number sense to ensure the development of dynamic, productive computation and estimation skills in students. To better prepare preservice elementary school teachers…

  15. Estimation Destinations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Threewit, Fran

    This book leads students through a journey of hands-on investigations of skill-based estimation. The 30 lessons in the book are grouped into four units: Holding Hands, The Real Scoop, Container Calculations, and Estimeasurements. In each unit children work with unique, real materials intended to build an awareness of number, quantity, and…

  16. Advanced planetary analyses. [for planetary mission planning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    The results are summarized of research accomplished during this period concerning planetary mission planning are summarized. The tasks reported include the cost estimations research, planetary missions handbook, and advanced planning activities.

  17. A structural econometric model of family valuation and choice of employer-sponsored health insurance in the United States.

    PubMed

    Vanness, David J

    2003-09-01

    This paper estimates a fully structural unitary household model of employment and health insurance decisions for dual wage-earner families with children in the United States, using data from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey. Families choose hours of work and the breakdown of compensation between cash wages and health insurance benefits for each wage earner in order to maximize expected utility under uncertain need for medical care. Heterogeneous demand for the employer-sponsored health insurance is thus generated directly from variations in health status and earning potential. The paper concludes by discussing the benefits of using structural models for simulating welfare effects of insurance reform relative to the costly assumptions that must be imposed for identification.

  18. Survey of cogeneration: Advanced cogeneration research study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Slonski, M. L.

    1983-01-01

    The consumption of electricity, natural gas, or fuel oil was surveyed. The potential electricity that could be generated in the SCE service territory using cogeneration technology was estimated. It was found that an estimated 3700 MWe could potentially be generated in Southern California using cogenerated technology. It is suggested that current technology could provide 2600 MWe and advanced technology could provide 1100 MWe. Approximately 1600 MWt is considered not feasible to produce electricity with either current or advanced cogeneration technology.

  19. Advanced LIGO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Aasi, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T.; Abernathy, M. R.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V.; Affeldt, C.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Alemic, A.; Allen, B.; Amariutei, D.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C.; Areeda, J. S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, S.; Aston, S. M.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Aylott, B. E.; Babak, S.; Baker, P. T.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barbet, M.; Barclay, S.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Bartlett, J.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Behnke, B.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C.; Benacquista, M.; Bergman, J.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Biscans, S.; Biwer, C.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bojtos, P.; Bond, C.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Bose, Sukanta; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Brau, J. E.; Bridges, D. O.; Brinkmann, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Buchman, S.; Buikema, A.; Buonanno, A.; Cadonati, L.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Caride, S.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cepeda, C.; Chakraborty, R.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chen, Y.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Collette, C.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Countryman, S.; Couvares, P.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cutler, C.; Dahl, K.; Dal Canton, T.; Damjanic, M.; Danilishin, S. L.; Danzmann, K.; Dartez, L.; Dave, I.; Daveloza, H.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; DeBra, D.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; D´ıaz, M.; Di Palma, I.; Dojcinoski, G.; Dominguez, E.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Dwyer, S.; Eberle, T.; Edo, T.; Edwards, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Essick, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Factourovich, M.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Feldbaum, D.; Ferreira, E. C.; Fisher, R. P.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fuentes-Tapia, S.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gair, J. R.; Gaonkar, S.; Gehrels, N.; Gergely, L. Á.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Gleason, J.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gordon, N.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S.; Goßler, S.; Gräf, C.; Graff, P. B.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guido, C. J.; Guo, X.; Gushwa, K.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Hanke, M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Hee, S.; Heintze, M.; Heinzel, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Hollitt, S. E.; Holt, K.; Hopkins, P.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Houston, E.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh, M.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Idrisy, A.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Islas, G.; Isler, J. C.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacobson, M.; Jang, H.; Jawahar, S.; Ji, Y.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Ju, L.; Haris, K.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, H.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kawazoe, F.; Keiser, G. M.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Key, J. S.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, C.; Kim, K.; Kim, N. G.; Kim, N.; Kim, Y.-M.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kline, J.; Koehlenbeck, S.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, P.; Kuo, L.; Landry, M.; Lantz, B.; Larson, S.; Lasky, P. D.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Le, J.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Leong, J. R.; Levin, Y.; Levine, B.; Lewis, J.; Li, T. G. F.; Libbrecht, K.; Libson, A.; Lin, A. C.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lockett, V.; Logue, J.; Lombardi, A. L.; Lormand, M.; Lough, J.; Lubinski, M. J.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macarthur, J.; MacDonald, T.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magee, R.; Mageswaran, M.; Maglione, C.; Mailand, K.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Maros, E.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martynov, D.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Massinger, T. J.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McLin, K.; McWilliams, S.; Meadors, G. D.; Meinders, M.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyers, P. M.; Miao, H.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Miller, A.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moe, B.; Mohanty, S. D.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moore, B.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nash, T.; Nayak, R. K.; Necula, V.; Nedkova, K.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A. H.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, R.; O'Reilly, B.; Ortega, W.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ott, C. D.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Padilla, C.; Pai, A.; Pai, S.; Palashov, O.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H.; Patrick, Z.; Pedraza, M.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Phelps, M.; Pierro, V.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poeld, J.; Post, A.; Poteomkin, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Premachandra, S.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Pürrer, M.; Qin, J.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E.; Quiroga, G.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajalakshmi, G.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramirez, K.; Raymond, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Reula, O.; Riles, K.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V.; Romano, J. D.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sannibale, V.; Santiago-Prieto, I.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Sawadsky, A.; Scheuer, J.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sergeev, A.; Serna, G.; Sevigny, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shao, Z.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sidery, T. L.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L.; Singh, R.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith-Lefebvre, N. D.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Souradeep, T.; Staley, A.; Stebbins, J.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Steplewski, S.; Stevenson, S.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sutton, P. J.; Szczepanczyk, M.; Szeifert, G.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Tellez, G.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, V.; Tomlinson, C.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Traylor, G.; Tse, M.; Tshilumba, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Vincent-Finley, R.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vorvick, C.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Wessels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Williams, L.; Williams, R.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Worden, J.; Xie, S.; Yablon, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yang, Q.; Zanolin, M.; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S.; Zweizig, J.

    2015-04-01

    The Advanced LIGO gravitational wave detectors are second-generation instruments designed and built for the two LIGO observatories in Hanford, WA and Livingston, LA, USA. The two instruments are identical in design, and are specialized versions of a Michelson interferometer with 4 km long arms. As in Initial LIGO, Fabry-Perot cavities are used in the arms to increase the interaction time with a gravitational wave, and power recycling is used to increase the effective laser power. Signal recycling has been added in Advanced LIGO to improve the frequency response. In the most sensitive frequency region around 100 Hz, the design strain sensitivity is a factor of 10 better than Initial LIGO. In addition, the low frequency end of the sensitivity band is moved from 40 Hz down to 10 Hz. All interferometer components have been replaced with improved technologies to achieve this sensitivity gain. Much better seismic isolation and test mass suspensions are responsible for the gains at lower frequencies. Higher laser power, larger test masses and improved mirror coatings lead to the improved sensitivity at mid and high frequencies. Data collecting runs with these new instruments are planned to begin in mid-2015.

  20. Long-run relative importance of temperature as the main driver to malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: a simple econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Komen, Kibii; Olwoch, Jane; Rautenbach, Hannes; Botai, Joel; Adebayo, Adetunji

    2015-03-01

    Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998-2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, ρ = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively, meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province.

  1. Alternative approaches for econometric analysis of panel count data using dynamic latent class models (with application to doctor visits data).

    PubMed

    Hyppolite, Judex; Trivedi, Pravin

    2012-06-01

    Cross-sectional latent class regression models, also known as switching regressions or hidden Markov models, cannot identify transitions between classes that may occur over time. This limitation can potentially be overcome when panel data are available. For such data, we develop a sequence of models that combine features of the static cross-sectional latent class (finite mixture) models with those of hidden Markov models. We model the probability of movement between categories in terms of a Markovian structure, which links the current state with a previous state, where state may refer to the category of an individual. This article presents a suite of mixture models of varying degree of complexity and flexibility for use in a panel count data setting, beginning with a baseline model which is a two-component mixture of Poisson distribution in which latent classes are fixed and permanent. Sequentially, we extend this framework (i) to allow the mixing proportions to be smoothly varying continuous functions of time-varying covariates, (ii) to add time dependence to the benchmark model by modeling the class-indicator variable as a first-order Markov chain and (iii) to extend item (i) by making it dynamic and introducing covariate dependence in the transition probabilities. We develop and implement estimation algorithms for these models and provide an empirical illustration using 1995-1999 panel data on the number of doctor visits derived from the German Socio-Economic Panel.

  2. Advances in Irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gardner, W. R.

    This is the first volume of Advances in Irrigation, a new serial publication by the publishers of Advances in Agronomy and Advances in Hydroscience and designed to follow the same format. The editor is a well-known researcher and writer on irrigation and related subjects and has assembled a collection of highly regarded and respected authors for the initial volume. The readership for this volume will probably be mainly specialists and students interested in irrigation and an occasional design engineer.The seven contributions in this volume fall roughly into two classes: research and practice. Three papers (“Conjunctive Use of Rainfall and Irrigation in Semi-arid Regions,” by Stewart and Musik, “Irrigation Scheduling Using Soil Moisture Measurements: Theory and Practice,” by G. S. and M. D. Campbell, and “Use of Solute Transport Models to Estimate Salt Balance Below Irrigated Cropland,” by Jury) cover topics that have been the subject of a number of reviews. The contributions here provide brief, well-written, and authoritative summaries of the chosen topics and serve as good introductions or reviews. They should lend themselves well to classroom use in various ways. They also should be helpful to the nonspecialist interested in getting a sense of the subject without going into great detail.

  3. Advanced Pacemaker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Synchrony, developed by St. Jude Medical's Cardiac Rhythm Management Division (formerly known as Pacesetter Systems, Inc.) is an advanced state-of-the-art implantable pacemaker that closely matches the natural rhythm of the heart. The companion element of the Synchrony Pacemaker System is the Programmer Analyzer APS-II which allows a doctor to reprogram and fine tune the pacemaker to each user's special requirements without surgery. The two-way communications capability that allows the physician to instruct and query the pacemaker is accomplished by bidirectional telemetry. APS-II features 28 pacing functions and thousands of programming combinations to accommodate diverse lifestyles. Microprocessor unit also records and stores pertinent patient data up to a year.

  4. Advanced worker protection system

    SciTech Connect

    Caldwell, B.; Duncan, P.; Myers, J.

    1995-12-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is in the process of defining the magnitude and diversity of Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) obligations at its numerous sites. The DOE believes that existing technologies are inadequate to solve many challenging problems such as how to decontaminate structures and equipment cost effectively, what to do with materials and wastes generated, and how to adequately protect workers and the environment. Preliminary estimates show a tremendous need for effective use of resources over a relatively long period (over 30 years). Several technologies are being investigated which can potentially reduce D&D costs while providing appropriate protection to DOE workers. The DOE recognizes that traditional methods used by the EPA in hazardous waste site clean up activities are insufficient to provide the needed protection and worker productivity demanded by DOE D&D programs. As a consequence, new clothing and equipment which can adequately protect workers while providing increases in worker productivity are being sought for implementation at DOE sites. This project will result in the development of an Advanced Worker Protection System (AWPS). The AWPS will be built around a life support backpack that uses liquid air to provide cooling as well as breathing gas to the worker. The backpack will be combined with advanced protective garments, advanced liquid cooling garment, respirator, communications, and support equipment to provide improved worker protection, simplified system maintenance, and dramatically improve worker productivity through longer duration work cycles. Phase I of the project has resulted in a full scale prototype Advanced Worker Protection Ensemble (AWPE, everything the worker will wear), with sub-scale support equipment, suitable for integrated testing and preliminary evaluation. Phase II will culminate in a full scale, certified, pre-production AWPS and a site demonstration.

  5. Using remotely sensed temperature to estimate climate response functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heft-Neal, Sam; Lobell, David B.; Burke, Marshall

    2017-01-01

    Temperature data are commonly used to estimate the sensitivity of many societally relevant outcomes, including crop yields, mortality, and economic output, to ongoing climate changes. In many tropical regions, however, temperature measures are often very sparse and unreliable, limiting our ability to understand climate change impacts. Here we evaluate satellite measures of near-surface temperature (Ts) as an alternative to traditional air temperatures (Ta) from weather stations, and in particular their ability to replace Ta in econometric estimation of climate response functions. We show that for maize yields in Africa and the United States, and for economic output in the United States, regressions that use Ts produce very similar results to those using Ta, despite the fact that daily correlation between the two temperature measures is often low. Moreover, for regions such as Africa with poor station coverage, we find that models with Ts outperform models with Ta, as measured by both R 2 values and out-of-sample prediction error. The results indicate that Ts can be used to study climate impacts in areas with limited station data, and should enable faster progress in assessing risks and adaptation needs in these regions.

  6. Soil Moisture as an Estimator for Crop Yield in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peichl, Michael; Meyer, Volker; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan

    2015-04-01

    Annual crop yield depends on various factors such as soil properties, management decisions, and meteorological conditions. Unfavorable weather conditions, e.g. droughts, have the potential to drastically diminish crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. For example, the drought in 2003 caused direct losses of 1.5 billion EUR only in Germany. Predicting crop yields allows to mitigate negative effects of weather extremes which are assumed to occur more often in the future due to climate change. A standard approach in economics is to predict the impact of climate change on agriculture as a function of temperature and precipitation. This approach has been developed further using concepts like growing degree days. Other econometric models use nonlinear functions of heat or vapor pressure deficit. However, none of these approaches uses soil moisture to predict crop yield. We hypothesize that soil moisture is a better indicator to explain stress on plant growth than estimations based on precipitation and temperature. This is the case because the latter variables do not explicitly account for the available water content in the root zone, which is the primary source of water supply for plant growth. In this study, a reduced form panel approach is applied to estimate a multivariate econometric production function for the years 1999 to 2010. Annual crop yield data of various crops on the administrative district level serve as depending variables. The explanatory variable of major interest is the Soil Moisture Index (SMI), which quantifies anomalies in root zone soil moisture. The SMI is computed by the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm). The index represents the monthly soil water quantile at a 4 km2 grid resolution covering entire Germany. A reduced model approach is suitable because the SMI is the result of a stochastic weather process and therefore can be considered exogenous. For the ease of interpretation a linear functionality is preferred. Meteorological

  7. Advanced stellarators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlüter, Arnulf

    1983-03-01

    Toroidal confinement of a plasma by an external magnetic field is not compatible with axisymmetry, in contrast to confinement by the pinch effect of induced electric currents as in a tokomak or by the reversed field pinch configuration. The existence of magnetic surfaces throughout the region in which grad p ≠ 0 is therefore not guaranteed in such configurations, though it is necessary for MHD-equilibrium when the lines of force possess a finite twist (or "rotational transform"). These twisted equilibria are called stellarators. The other type of external confinement requires all lines of force to be closed upon themselves and p to be function of the well defined quantity Q = φ d l/ B only. The resulting "bumpy" tori are sometimes also referred to as being M + S like. By discussing specific examples it is shown that stellarator configurations exist which retain as much as possible the properties of M + S like configurations, combine these with the magnetic well, and with an approximation to the isodynamic requirement of D. Palumbo. These so-called Advanced Stellarators shown an improvement in predicted particle confinement and beta-limit compared to the classical stellarators. They can also be viewed as forming a system of linked stabilized mirrors of small mirror ratio. These fields can be produced by modular coils. A prototype of such a configuration is being designed by the stellarator division of IPP under the name of Wendelstein VII-AS. Expected physical data and technical details of W VII-AS are given.

  8. Kernel density estimation applied to bond length, bond angle, and torsion angle distributions.

    PubMed

    McCabe, Patrick; Korb, Oliver; Cole, Jason

    2014-05-27

    We describe the method of kernel density estimation (KDE) and apply it to molecular structure data. KDE is a quite general nonparametric statistical method suitable even for multimodal data. The method generates smooth probability density function (PDF) representations and finds application in diverse fields such as signal processing and econometrics. KDE appears to have been under-utilized as a method in molecular geometry analysis, chemo-informatics, and molecular structure optimization. The resulting probability densities have advantages over histograms and, importantly, are also suitable for gradient-based optimization. To illustrate KDE, we describe its application to chemical bond length, bond valence angle, and torsion angle distributions and show the ability of the method to model arbitrary torsion angle distributions.

  9. Advanced methods of structural and trajectory analysis for transport aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ardema, Mark D.

    1995-01-01

    This report summarizes the efforts in two areas: (1) development of advanced methods of structural weight estimation, and (2) development of advanced methods of trajectory optimization. The majority of the effort was spent in the structural weight area. A draft of 'Analytical Fuselage and Wing Weight Estimation of Transport Aircraft', resulting from this research, is included as an appendix.

  10. Advancing Residential Energy Retrofits

    SciTech Connect

    Jackson, Roderick K; Boudreaux, Philip R; Kim, Eyu-Jin; Roberts, Sydney

    2012-01-01

    To advance the market penetration of residential retrofits, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Southface Energy Institute (Southface) partnered to provide technical assistance on nine home energy retrofits in metropolitan Atlanta with simulated source energy savings of 30% to 50%. Retrofit measures included duct sealing, air infiltration reductions, attic sealing and roofline insulation, crawlspace sealing, HVAC and water heating equipment replacement, and lighting and appliance upgrades. This paper will present a summary of these measures and their associated impacts on important home performance metrics, such as air infiltration and duct leakage. The average estimated source energy savings for the homes is 33%, and the actual heating season average savings is 32%. Additionally, a case study describing expected and realized energy savings of completed retrofit measures of one of the homes is described in this paper.

  11. Advanced drilling systems study.

    SciTech Connect

    Pierce, Kenneth G.; Livesay, Billy Joe; Finger, John Travis

    1996-05-01

    This report documents the results of a study of advanced drilling concepts conducted jointly for the Natural Gas Technology Branch and the Geothermal Division of the U.S. Department of Energy. A number of alternative rock cutting concepts and drilling systems are examined. The systems cover the range from current technology, through ongoing efforts in drilling research, to highly speculative concepts. Cutting mechanisms that induce stress mechanically, hydraulically, and thermally are included. All functions necessary to drill and case a well are considered. Capital and operating costs are estimated and performance requirements, based on comparisons of the costs for alternative systems to conventional drilling technology, are developed. A number of problems common to several alternatives and to current technology are identified and discussed.

  12. Precipitation Estimates for Hydroelectricity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tapiador, Francisco J.; Hou, Arthur Y.; de Castro, Manuel; Checa, Ramiro; Cuartero, Fernando; Barros, Ana P.

    2011-01-01

    Hydroelectric plants require precise and timely estimates of rain, snow and other hydrometeors for operations. However, it is far from being a trivial task to measure and predict precipitation. This paper presents the linkages between precipitation science and hydroelectricity, and in doing so it provides insight into current research directions that are relevant for this renewable energy. Methods described include radars, disdrometers, satellites and numerical models. Two recent advances that have the potential of being highly beneficial for hydropower operations are featured: the Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) mission, which represents an important leap forward in precipitation observations from space, and high performance computing (HPC) and grid technology, that allows building ensembles of numerical weather and climate models.

  13. Advanced photovoltaic solar array development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurland, Richard M.; Stella, Paul

    1989-01-01

    Phase 2 of the Advanced Photovoltaic Solar Array (APSA) program, started in mid-1987, is currently in progress to fabricate prototype wing hardware that will lead to wing integration and testing in 1989. The design configuration and key details are reviewed. A status of prototype hardware fabricated to date is provided. Results from key component-level tests are discussed. Revised estimates of array-level performance as a function of solar cell device technology for geosynchronous missions are given.

  14. SCIENCE BRIEF: ADVANCED CONCEPTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research on advanced concepts will evaluate and demonstrate the application of innovative infrastructure designs, management procedures and operational approaches. Advanced concepts go beyond simple asset management. The infusion of these advanced concepts into established wastew...

  15. Coverage-adjusted entropy estimation.

    PubMed

    Vu, Vincent Q; Yu, Bin; Kass, Robert E

    2007-09-20

    Data on 'neural coding' have frequently been analyzed using information-theoretic measures. These formulations involve the fundamental and generally difficult statistical problem of estimating entropy. We review briefly several methods that have been advanced to estimate entropy and highlight a method, the coverage-adjusted entropy estimator (CAE), due to Chao and Shen that appeared recently in the environmental statistics literature. This method begins with the elementary Horvitz-Thompson estimator, developed for sampling from a finite population, and adjusts for the potential new species that have not yet been observed in the sample-these become the new patterns or 'words' in a spike train that have not yet been observed. The adjustment is due to I. J. Good, and is called the Good-Turing coverage estimate. We provide a new empirical regularization derivation of the coverage-adjusted probability estimator, which shrinks the maximum likelihood estimate. We prove that the CAE is consistent and first-order optimal, with rate O(P)(1/log n), in the class of distributions with finite entropy variance and that, within the class of distributions with finite qth moment of the log-likelihood, the Good-Turing coverage estimate and the total probability of unobserved words converge at rate O(P)(1/(log n)(q)). We then provide a simulation study of the estimator with standard distributions and examples from neuronal data, where observations are dependent. The results show that, with a minor modification, the CAE performs much better than the MLE and is better than the best upper bound estimator, due to Paninski, when the number of possible words m is unknown or infinite.

  16. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES)

    SciTech Connect

    2012-07-27

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing complance pressures require careful consideration and adaption. The CSES provides a measure (i.e. a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders' interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement.

  17. Battery Calendar Life Estimator Manual Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Jon P. Christophersen; Ira Bloom; Ed Thomas; Vince Battaglia

    2012-10-01

    The Battery Life Estimator (BLE) Manual has been prepared to assist developers in their efforts to estimate the calendar life of advanced batteries for automotive applications. Testing requirements and procedures are defined by the various manuals previously published under the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC). The purpose of this manual is to describe and standardize a method for estimating calendar life based on statistical models and degradation data acquired from typical USABC battery testing.

  18. Battery Life Estimator Manual Linear Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Jon P. Christophersen; Ira Bloom; Ed Thomas; Vince Battaglia

    2009-08-01

    The Battery Life Estimator (BLE) Manual has been prepared to assist developers in their efforts to estimate the calendar life of advanced batteries for automotive applications. Testing requirements and procedures are defined by the various manuals previously published under the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC). The purpose of this manual is to describe and standardize a method for estimating calendar life based on statistical models and degradation data acquired from typical USABC battery testing.

  19. Continuously differentiable sample-spacing entropy estimation.

    PubMed

    Ozertem, Umut; Uysal, Ismail; Erdogmus, Deniz

    2008-11-01

    The insufficiency of using only second-order statistics and premise of exploiting higher order statistics of the data has been well understood, and more advanced objectives including higher order statistics, especially those stemming from information theory, such as error entropy minimization, are now being studied and applied in many contexts of machine learning and signal processing. In the adaptive system training context, the main drawback of utilizing output error entropy as compared to correlation-estimation-based second-order statistics is the computational load of the entropy estimation, which is usually obtained via a plug-in kernel estimator. Sample-spacing estimates offer computationally inexpensive entropy estimators; however, resulting estimates are not differentiable, hence, not suitable for gradient-based adaptation. In this brief paper, we propose a nonparametric entropy estimator that captures the desirable properties of both approaches. The resulting estimator yields continuously differentiable estimates with a computational complexity at the order of those of the sample-spacing techniques. The proposed estimator is compared with the kernel density estimation (KDE)-based entropy estimator in the supervised neural network training framework with computation time and performance comparisons.

  20. Variance estimation for stratified propensity score estimators.

    PubMed

    Williamson, E J; Morley, R; Lucas, A; Carpenter, J R

    2012-07-10

    Propensity score methods are increasingly used to estimate the effect of a treatment or exposure on an outcome in non-randomised studies. We focus on one such method, stratification on the propensity score, comparing it with the method of inverse-probability weighting by the propensity score. The propensity score--the conditional probability of receiving the treatment given observed covariates--is usually an unknown probability estimated from the data. Estimators for the variance of treatment effect estimates typically used in practice, however, do not take into account that the propensity score itself has been estimated from the data. By deriving the asymptotic marginal variance of the stratified estimate of treatment effect, correctly taking into account the estimation of the propensity score, we show that routinely used variance estimators are likely to produce confidence intervals that are too conservative when the propensity score model includes variables that predict (cause) the outcome, but only weakly predict the treatment. In contrast, a comparison with the analogous marginal variance for the inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimator shows that routinely used variance estimators for the IPW estimator are likely to produce confidence intervals that are almost always too conservative. Because exact calculation of the asymptotic marginal variance is likely to be complex, particularly for the stratified estimator, we suggest that bootstrap estimates of variance should be used in practice.

  1. Advanced Airframe Structural Materials: A Primer and Cost Estimating Methodology

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-01-01

    laying machines for larger, mildly con- toured parts such as wing and stabilizer skins. For such parts, automated tape laying machines can operate many...heat guns (90-130°F). However, thermoplastics require as much as 650°F for forming. Automated tape laying machines for these materials use warm...cycles to properly seat the plies onto the tool. This time-consuming process can sometimes be eliminated or reduced by the use of automated tape laying procedures

  2. Advanced Fuel Properties; A Computer Program for Estimating Property Values

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-05-01

    Beattie - Bridgeman equation of state ’ is the second equation of state used to determine the density of a gas. This...pressures (reduced pressure (10). The Beattie - Bridgeman equation of state solved for pressure reads: P_ RT(I-e) (v+B) - A V2 V2 131 where, P...Kesler-Pldcker, Benedict-Webb-Rubin, and the Beattie - Bridgeman equations of state . 6.1.2.11.19 Pseudocritical Values The method of corresponding states

  3. Estimating potential evapotranspiration with improved radiation estimation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is of great importance to estimation of surface energy budget and water balance calculation. The accurate estimation of PET will facilitate efficient irrigation scheduling, drainage design, and other agricultural and meteorological applications. However, accuracy o...

  4. Estimating the Economic Value of Ice Climbing in Hyalite Canyon: An Application of Travel Cost Count Data Models that Account for Excess Zeros*

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, D. Mark

    2009-01-01

    Recently, the sport of ice climbing has seen a drastic increase in popularity. This paper uses the travel cost method to estimate the demand for ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon, Montana, one of the premier ice climbing venues in North America. Access to Hyalite and other ice climbing destinations have been put at risk due to liability issues, public land management agendas, and winter road conditions. To this point, there has been no analysis on the economic benefits of ice climbing. In addition to the novel outdoor recreation application, this study applies econometric methods designed to deal with “excess zeros” in the data. Depending upon model specification, per person per trip values are estimated to be in the range of $76 to $135. PMID:20044202

  5. Estimating the economic value of ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon: An application of travel cost count data models that account for excess zeros.

    PubMed

    Anderson, D Mark

    2010-01-01

    Recently, the sport of ice climbing has seen a dramatic increase in popularity. This paper uses the travel cost method to estimate the demand for ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon, Montana, one of the premier ice climbing venues in North America. Access to Hyalite and other ice climbing destinations have been put at risk due to liability issues, public land management agendas, and winter road conditions. To this point, there has been no analysis on the economic benefits of ice climbing. In addition to the novel outdoor recreation application, this study applies econometric methods designed to deal with "excess zeros" in the data. Depending upon model specification, per person per trip values are estimated to be in the range of $76 to $135.

  6. Ensemble estimators for multivariate entropy estimation.

    PubMed

    Sricharan, Kumar; Wei, Dennis; Hero, Alfred O

    2013-07-01

    The problem of estimation of density functionals like entropy and mutual information has received much attention in the statistics and information theory communities. A large class of estimators of functionals of the probability density suffer from the curse of dimensionality, wherein the mean squared error (MSE) decays increasingly slowly as a function of the sample size T as the dimension d of the samples increases. In particular, the rate is often glacially slow of order O(T(-)(γ)(/)(d) ), where γ > 0 is a rate parameter. Examples of such estimators include kernel density estimators, k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) density estimators, k-NN entropy estimators, intrinsic dimension estimators and other examples. In this paper, we propose a weighted affine combination of an ensemble of such estimators, where optimal weights can be chosen such that the weighted estimator converges at a much faster dimension invariant rate of O(T(-1)). Furthermore, we show that these optimal weights can be determined by solving a convex optimization problem which can be performed offline and does not require training data. We illustrate the superior performance of our weighted estimator for two important applications: (i) estimating the Panter-Dite distortion-rate factor and (ii) estimating the Shannon entropy for testing the probability distribution of a random sample.

  7. Advanced hydrologic prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Connelly, Brian A.; Braatz, Dean T.; Halquist, John B.; Deweese, Michael M.; Larson, Lee; Ingram, John J.

    1999-08-01

    As our Nation's population and infrastructure grow, natural disasters are becoming a greater threat to our society's stability. In an average year, inland flooding claims 133 lives and resulting property losses exceed 4.0 billion. Last year, 1997, these losses totaled 8.7 billion. Because of this blossoming threat, the National Weather Service (NWS) has requested funding within its 2000 budget to begin national implementation of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS). With this system in place the NWS will be able to utilize precipitation and climate predictions to provide extended probabilistic river forecasts for risk-based decisions. In addition to flood and drought mitigation benefits, extended river forecasts will benefit water resource managers in decision making regarding water supply, agriculture, navigation, hydropower, and ecosystems. It's estimated that AHPS, if implemented nationwide, would save lives and provide $677 million per year in economic benefits. AHPS is used currently on the Des Moines River basin in Iowa and will be implemented soon on the Minnesota River basin in Minnesota. Experience gained from user interaction is leading to refined and enhanced product formats and displays. This discussion will elaborate on the technical requirements associated with AHPS implementation, its enhanced products and informational displays, and further refinements based on customer feedback.

  8. Advanced worker protection system

    SciTech Connect

    Caldwell, B.; Duncan, P.; Myers, J.

    1995-10-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) is in the process of defining the magnitude and diversity of Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) obligations at its numerous sites. The DOE believes that existing technologies are inadequate to solve many challenging problems such as how to decontaminate structures and equipment cost effectively, what to do with materials and wastes generated, and how to adequately protect workers and the environment. Preliminary estimates show a tremendous need for effective use of resources over a relatively long period (over 30 years). Several technologies are being investigated which can potentially reduce D&D costs while providing appropriate protection to DOE workers. The DOE recognizes that traditional methods used by the EPA in hazardous waste site clean up activities are insufficient to provide the needed protection and worker productivity demanded by DOE D&D programs. As a consequence, new clothing and equipment which can adequately protect workers while providing increases in worker productivity are being sought for implementation at DOE sites. This project describes the development of an Advanced Worker Protection System (AWPS) which will include a life-support backpack with liquid air for cooling and as a supply of breathing gas, protective clothing, respirators, communications, and support equipment.

  9. Uveal melanoma: estimating prognosis.

    PubMed

    Kaliki, Swathi; Shields, Carol L; Shields, Jerry A

    2015-02-01

    Uveal melanoma is the most common primary malignant tumor of the eye in adults, predominantly found in Caucasians. Local tumor control of uveal melanoma is excellent, yet this malignancy is associated with relatively high mortality secondary to metastasis. Various clinical, histopathological, cytogenetic features and gene expression features help in estimating the prognosis of uveal melanoma. The clinical features associated with poor prognosis in patients with uveal melanoma include older age at presentation, male gender, larger tumor basal diameter and thickness, ciliary body location, diffuse tumor configuration, association with ocular/oculodermal melanocytosis, extraocular tumor extension, and advanced tumor staging by American Joint Committee on Cancer classification. Histopathological features suggestive of poor prognosis include epithelioid cell type, high mitotic activity, higher values of mean diameter of ten largest nucleoli, higher microvascular density, extravascular matrix patterns, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, tumor-infiltrating macrophages, higher expression of insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor, and higher expression of human leukocyte antigen Class I and II. Monosomy 3, 1p loss, 6q loss, and 8q and those classified as Class II by gene expression are predictive of poor prognosis of uveal melanoma. In this review, we discuss the prognostic factors of uveal melanoma. A database search was performed on PubMed, using the terms "uvea," "iris," "ciliary body," "choroid," "melanoma," "uveal melanoma" and "prognosis," "metastasis," "genetic testing," "gene expression profiling." Relevant English language articles were extracted, reviewed, and referenced appropriately.

  10. Advances in forefoot trauma.

    PubMed

    Clements, J Randolph; Schopf, Robert

    2013-07-01

    Forefoot traumas, particularly involving the metatarsals, are commonly occurring injuries. There have been several advances in management of these injuries. These advances include updates in operative technique, internal fixation options, plating constructs, and external fixation. In addition, the advances of soft tissue management have improved outcomes. This article outlines these injuries and provides an update on techniques, principles, and understanding of managing forefoot trauma.

  11. Cost and Economics for Advanced Launch Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitfield, Jeff

    1998-01-01

    Market sensitivity and weight-based cost estimating relationships are key drivers in determining the financial viability of advanced space launch vehicle designs. Due to decreasing space transportation budgets and increasing foreign competition, it has become essential for financial assessments of prospective launch vehicles to be performed during the conceptual design phase. As part of this financial assessment, it is imperative to understand the relationship between market volatility, the uncertainty of weight estimates, and the economic viability of an advanced space launch vehicle program. This paper reports the results of a study that evaluated the economic risk inherent in market variability and the uncertainty of developing weight estimates for an advanced space launch vehicle program. The purpose of this study was to determine the sensitivity of a business case for advanced space flight design with respect to the changing nature of market conditions and the complexity of determining accurate weight estimations during the conceptual design phase. The expected uncertainty associated with these two factors drives the economic risk of the overall program. The study incorporates Monte Carlo simulation techniques to determine the probability of attaining specific levels of economic performance when the market and weight parameters are allowed to vary. This structured approach toward uncertainties allows for the assessment of risks associated with a launch vehicle program's economic performance. This results in the determination of the value of the additional risk placed on the project by these two factors.

  12. Advanced Extremely High Frequency Satellite (AEHF)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-12-01

    Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) RCS: DD-A&T(Q&A)823-261 Advanced Extremely High Frequency Satellite (AEHF) As of FY 2017 President’s Budget...Office Estimate RDT&E - Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation SAR - Selected Acquisition Report SCP - Service Cost Position TBD - To Be

  13. "Internal Waves" Advancing along Submarine Canyons.

    PubMed

    Shepard, F P; Marshall, N F; McLoughlin, P A

    1974-01-18

    Patterns of alternating up- and downcanyon currents have been traced along the axes of submarine canyons off California. The patterns arrive later at stations nearer the heads of coastal canyons. Where a canyon heads between two islands, the patterns advance down the axis. The propagation speeds of these patterns were estimated as 25 to 88 centimeters per second. Internal waves are the probable explanation.

  14. Estimating population diversity with CatchAll

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The massive quantity of data produced by next-generation sequencing has created a pressing need for advanced statistical tools, in particular for analysis of bacterial and phage communities. Here we address estimating the total diversity in a population – the species richness. This is an important s...

  15. Persistent Symptoms of Dengue: Estimates of the Incremental Disease and Economic Burden in Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Tiga, D. Carolina; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Ramos-Castañeda, José; Martínez-Vega, Ruth A.; Tschampl, Cynthia A.; Shepard, Donald S.

    2016-01-01

    Dengue is mostly considered an acute illness with three phases: febrile, critical with possible hemorrhagic manifestations, and recovery. But some patients present persistent symptoms, including fatigue and depression, as acknowledged by the World Health Organization. If persistent symptoms affect a non-negligible share of patients, the burden of dengue will be underestimated. On the basis of a systematic literature review and econometric modeling, we found a significant relationship between the share of patients reporting persisting symptoms and time. We updated estimates of the economic burden of dengue in Mexico, addressing uncertainty in productivity loss and incremental expenses using Monte Carlo simulations. Persistent symptoms represent annually about US$22.6 (95% certainty level [CL]: US$13–US$29) million in incremental costs and 28.2 (95% CL: 21.6–36.2) additional disability-adjusted life years per million population, or 13% and 43% increases over previous estimates, respectively. Although our estimates have uncertainty from limited data, they show a substantial, unmeasured burden. Similar patterns likely extend to other dengue-endemic countries. PMID:26976885

  16. Price and cost estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, R. D.

    1979-01-01

    Price and Cost Estimating Program (PACE II) was developed to prepare man-hour and material cost estimates. Versatile and flexible tool significantly reduces computation time and errors and reduces typing and reproduction time involved in preparation of cost estimates.

  17. Session: CSP Advanced Systems -- Advanced Overview (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Mehos, M.

    2008-04-01

    The project description is: (1) it supports crosscutting activities, e.g. advanced optical materials, that aren't tied to a single CSP technology and (2) it supports the 'incubation' of new concepts in preliminary stages of investigation.

  18. Estimating tail probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Carr, D.B.; Tolley, H.D.

    1982-12-01

    This paper investigates procedures for univariate nonparametric estimation of tail probabilities. Extrapolated values for tail probabilities beyond the data are also obtained based on the shape of the density in the tail. Several estimators which use exponential weighting are described. These are compared in a Monte Carlo study to nonweighted estimators, to the empirical cdf, to an integrated kernel, to a Fourier series estimate, to a penalized likelihood estimate and a maximum likelihood estimate. Selected weighted estimators are shown to compare favorably to many of these standard estimators for the sampling distributions investigated.

  19. Estimating the price elasticity of beer: meta-analysis of data with heterogeneity, dependence, and publication bias.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Jon P

    2014-01-01

    Precise estimates of price elasticities are important for alcohol tax policy. Using meta-analysis, this paper corrects average beer elasticities for heterogeneity, dependence, and publication selection bias. A sample of 191 estimates is obtained from 114 primary studies. Simple and weighted means are reported. Dependence is addressed by restricting number of estimates per study, author-restricted samples, and author-specific variables. Publication bias is addressed using funnel graph, trim-and-fill, and Egger's intercept model. Heterogeneity and selection bias are examined jointly in meta-regressions containing moderator variables for econometric methodology, primary data, and precision of estimates. Results for fixed- and random-effects regressions are reported. Country-specific effects and sample time periods are unimportant, but several methodology variables help explain the dispersion of estimates. In models that correct for selection bias and heterogeneity, the average beer price elasticity is about -0.20, which is less elastic by 50% compared to values commonly used in alcohol tax policy simulations.

  20. Advanced cogeneration research study: Executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bluhm, S. A.; Moore, N.; Rosenberg, L.; Slonski, M.

    1983-01-01

    This study provides a broad based overview of selected areas relevant to the development of a comprehensive Southern California Edison (SCE) advanced cogeneration project. The areas studied are: (1) Cogeneration potential in the SCE service territory; (2) Advanced cogeneration technologies; and (3) Existing cogeneration computer models. An estimated 3700 MW sub E could potentially be generated from existing industries in the Southern California Edison service territory using cogeneration technology. Of this total, current technology could provide 2600 MW sub E and advanced technology could provide 1100 MW sub E. The manufacturing sector (SIC Codes 20-39) was found to have the highest average potential for current cogeneration technology. The mining sector (SIC Codes 10-14) was found to have the highest potential for advanced technology.

  1. Advances in Understanding Air Pollution and CVD.

    PubMed

    Kaufman, Joel D; Spalt, Elizabeth W; Curl, Cynthia L; Hajat, Anjum; Jones, Miranda R; Kim, Sun-Young; Vedal, Sverre; Szpiro, Adam A; Gassett, Amanda; Sheppard, Lianne; Daviglus, Martha L; Adar, Sara D

    2016-09-01

    The MESA Air (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution) leveraged the platform of the MESA cohort into a prospective longitudinal study of relationships between air pollution and cardiovascular health. MESA Air researchers developed fine-scale, state-of-the-art air pollution exposure models for the MESA Air communities, creating individual exposure estimates for each participant. These models combine cohort-specific exposure monitoring, existing monitoring systems, and an extensive database of geographic and meteorological information. Together with extensive phenotyping in MESA-and adding participants and health measurements to the cohort-MESA Air investigated environmental exposures on a wide range of outcomes. Advances by the MESA Air team included not only a new approach to exposure modeling, but also biostatistical advances in addressing exposure measurement error and temporal confounding. The MESA Air study advanced our understanding of the impact of air pollutants on cardiovascular disease and provided a research platform for advances in environmental epidemiology.

  2. Estimating avian population size using Bowden's estimator

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diefenbach, D.R.

    2009-01-01

    Avian researchers often uniquely mark birds, and multiple estimators could be used to estimate population size using individually identified birds. However, most estimators of population size require that all sightings of marked birds be uniquely identified, and many assume homogeneous detection probabilities. Bowden's estimator can incorporate sightings of marked birds that are not uniquely identified and relax assumptions required of other estimators. I used computer simulation to evaluate the performance of Bowden's estimator for situations likely to be encountered in bird studies. When the assumptions of the estimator were met, abundance and variance estimates and confidence-interval coverage were accurate. However, precision was poor for small population sizes (N ??? 50) unless a large percentage of the population was marked (>75%) and multiple (???8) sighting surveys were conducted. If additional birds are marked after sighting surveys begin, it is important to initially mark a large proportion of the population (pm ??? 0.5 if N ??? 100 or pm > 0.1 if N ??? 250) and minimize sightings in which birds are not uniquely identified; otherwise, most population estimates will be overestimated by >10%. Bowden's estimator can be useful for avian studies because birds can be resighted multiple times during a single survey, not all sightings of marked birds have to uniquely identify individuals, detection probabilities among birds can vary, and the complete study area does not have to be surveyed. I provide computer code for use with pilot data to design mark-resight surveys to meet desired precision for abundance estimates. ?? 2009 by The American Ornithologists' Union. All rights reserved.

  3. ADVANCED TURBINE SYSTEMS PROGRAM

    SciTech Connect

    Sy Ali

    2002-03-01

    The market for power generation equipment is undergoing a tremendous transformation. The traditional electric utility industry is restructuring, promising new opportunities and challenges for all facilities to meet their demands for electric and thermal energy. Now more than ever, facilities have a host of options to choose from, including new distributed generation (DG) technologies that are entering the market as well as existing DG options that are improving in cost and performance. The market is beginning to recognize that some of these users have needs beyond traditional grid-based power. Together, these changes are motivating commercial and industrial facilities to re-evaluate their current mix of energy services. One of the emerging generating options is a new breed of advanced fuel cells. While there are a variety of fuel cell technologies being developed, the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) and molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFC) are especially promising, with their electric efficiency expected around 50-60 percent and their ability to generate either hot water or high quality steam. In addition, they both have the attractive characteristics of all fuel cells--relatively small siting footprint, rapid response to changing loads, very low emissions, quiet operation, and an inherently modular design lending itself to capacity expansion at predictable unit cost with reasonably short lead times. The objectives of this project are to:(1) Estimate the market potential for high efficiency fuel cell hybrids in the U.S.;(2) Segment market size by commercial, industrial, and other key markets;(3) Identify and evaluate potential early adopters; and(4) Develop results that will help prioritize and target future R&D investments. The study focuses on high efficiency MCFC- and SOFC-based hybrids and competing systems such as gas turbines, reciprocating engines, fuel cells and traditional grid service. Specific regions in the country have been identified where these

  4. Advanced space transportation technologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raj, Rishi S.

    1989-01-01

    A wide range of propulsion technologies for space transportation are discussed in the literature. It is clear from the literature review that a single propulsion technology cannot satisfy the many mission needs in space. Many of the technologies tested, proposed, or in experimental stages relate to: chemical and nuclear fuel; radiative and corpuscular external energy source; tethers; cannons; and electromagnetic acceleration. The scope and limitation of these technologies is well tabulated in the literature. Prior experience has shown that an extensive amount of fuel needs to be carried along for the return mission. This requirement puts additional constraints on the lift off rocket technology and limits the payload capacity. Consider the possibility of refueling in space. If the return fuel supply is guaranteed, it will not only be possible to lift off more payload but also to provide security and safety of the mission. Exploration to deep space where solar sails and thermal effects fade would also be possible. Refueling would also facilitate travel on the planet of exploration. This aspect of space transportation prompts the present investigation. The particle emissions from the Sun's corona will be collected under three different conditions: in space closer to the Sun, in the Van Allen Belts; and on the Moon. It is proposed to convert the particle state into gaseous, liquid, or solid state and store it for refueling space vehicles. These facilities may be called space pump stations and the fuel collected as space fuel. Preliminary estimates of fuel collection at all three sites will be made. Future work will continue towards advancing the art of collection rate and design schemes for pumping stations.

  5. Uveal melanoma: Estimating prognosis

    PubMed Central

    Kaliki, Swathi; Shields, Carol L; Shields, Jerry A

    2015-01-01

    Uveal melanoma is the most common primary malignant tumor of the eye in adults, predominantly found in Caucasians. Local tumor control of uveal melanoma is excellent, yet this malignancy is associated with relatively high mortality secondary to metastasis. Various clinical, histopathological, cytogenetic features and gene expression features help in estimating the prognosis of uveal melanoma. The clinical features associated with poor prognosis in patients with uveal melanoma include older age at presentation, male gender, larger tumor basal diameter and thickness, ciliary body location, diffuse tumor configuration, association with ocular/oculodermal melanocytosis, extraocular tumor extension, and advanced tumor staging by American Joint Committee on Cancer classification. Histopathological features suggestive of poor prognosis include epithelioid cell type, high mitotic activity, higher values of mean diameter of ten largest nucleoli, higher microvascular density, extravascular matrix patterns, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, tumor-infiltrating macrophages, higher expression of insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor, and higher expression of human leukocyte antigen Class I and II. Monosomy 3, 1p loss, 6q loss, and 8q and those classified as Class II by gene expression are predictive of poor prognosis of uveal melanoma. In this review, we discuss the prognostic factors of uveal melanoma. A database search was performed on PubMed, using the terms “uvea,” “iris,” “ciliary body,” “choroid,” “melanoma,” “uveal melanoma” and “prognosis,” “metastasis,” “genetic testing,” “gene expression profiling.” Relevant English language articles were extracted, reviewed, and referenced appropriately. PMID:25827538

  6. An Econometric Analysis of the Unemployment Insurance System in a Local Urban Labor Market. Final Report for September 1, 1973--September 30, 1974.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marston, Stephen Tilney

    The study derives a model of the unemployment insurance (UI) system and its relationship to the labor market, estimates it with data from the Detroit Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area, and evaluates its potential use to forecast UI benefit amounts, UI insured unemployment, and UI exhaustions. It further uses the model to analyze policy issues…

  7. A Non-Econometric Analysis with Algebraic Models to Forecast the Numbers of Newly Hired and Retirement of Public Primary School Teachers in Taiwan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lung-Hsing, Kuo; Hung-Jen, Yang; Ying-Wen, Lin; Shang-Ming, Su

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, the "street teachers" issue has caused social concern in Taiwan. This study estimates the retirement of and needs for newly hired and public primary school teachers in 2010 using an algebraic model from the paper by Husssar (1999). This recursive methodology predicts the number of newly hired public primary school…

  8. Advance Care Planning.

    PubMed

    Stallworthy, Elizabeth J

    2013-04-16

    Advance care planning should be available to all patients with chronic kidney disease, including end-stage kidney disease on renal replacement therapy. Advance care planning is a process of patient-centred discussion, ideally involving family/significant others, to assist the patient to understand how their illness might affect them, identify their goals and establish how medical treatment might help them to achieve these. An Advance Care Plan is only one useful outcome from the Advance Care Planning process, the education of patient and family around prognosis and treatment options is likely to be beneficial whether or not a plan is written or the individual loses decision making capacity at the end of life. Facilitating Advance Care Planning discussions requires an understanding of their purpose and communication skills which need to be taught. Advance Care Planning needs to be supported by effective systems to enable the discussions and any resulting Plans to be used to aid subsequent decision making.

  9. Advancing Ethical Neuroscience Research.

    PubMed

    Borah, B Rashmi; Strand, Nicolle K; Chillag, Kata L

    2016-12-01

    As neuroscience research advances, researchers, clinicians, and other stakeholders will face a host of ethical challenges. The Presidential Commission for the Study of Bioethical Issues (Bioethics Commission) has published two reports that provide recommendations on how to advance research endeavors ethically. The commission addressed, among other issues, how to prioritize different types of neuroscience research and how to include research participants who have impaired consent capacity. The Bioethics Commission's recommendations provide a foundation for ethical guidelines as neuroscience research advances and progresses.

  10. Hydromechanical Advanced Coal Excavator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estus, Jay M.; Summers, David

    1990-01-01

    Water-jet cutting reduces coal dust and its hazards. Advanced mining system utilizes full-face, hydromechanical, continuous miner. Coal excavator uses high-pressure water-jet lances, one in each of cutting heads and one in movable lance, to make cuts across top, bottom and middle height, respectively, of coal face. Wedge-shaped cutting heads advance into lower and upper cuts in turn, thereby breaking coal toward middle cut. Thrust cylinders and walking pads advance excavator toward coal face.

  11. Advanced echocardiographic techniques

    PubMed Central

    Perry, Rebecca

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Echocardiography has advanced significantly since its first clinical use. The move towards more accurate imaging and quantification has driven this advancement. In this review, we will briefly focus on three distinct but important recent advances, three‐dimensional (3D) echocardiography, contrast echocardiography and myocardial tissue imaging. The basic principles of these techniques will be discussed as well as current and future clinical applications. PMID:28191159

  12. Advancing the educational agenda.

    PubMed

    Baker, Cynthia

    2010-12-01

    This timely paper provides a thought-provoking analysis of current advanced practice nursing education in Canada. It comes at a critical juncture in the evolution of Canadian healthcare services and the redefinition of nursing roles. Increasingly, multiple sectors of society are calling for more nurses with advanced practice preparation and for a wider range of advanced practice nursing specialties. Advanced practice nurses (APNs) are being proposed as a solution to a financially overburdened national healthcare system, the increasing complexity of healthcare services, and a crisis in access to primary healthcare. Thus, governments seeking greater fiscal efficiency, medical specialists needing sophisticated collaborative support, and healthcare consumers see APNs as the way forward.

  13. The Effect of Reserve Activations and Active-Duty Deployments on Local Employment During the Global War on Terrorism

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-01

    by the Stata procedure, xtregar. - 25 - 4. ECONOMETRIC RESULTS In this section, we present the results of estimating the econometric model of...Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. - iii - PREFACE This report presents an econometric analysis of the impact of...Personnel Activated and Deployed...........19 Econometric Methods.............................................20 Sample Selection

  14. Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Scarborough, Peter; Rayner, Mike; Mizdrak, Anja; Nnoaham, Kelechi; Blakely, Tony

    2015-01-01

    Background Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. Methods A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. Findings A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. Conclusions Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts. PMID:26154289

  15. The effect of changes in health sector resources on infant mortality in the short-run and the long-run: a longitudinal econometric analysis.

    PubMed

    Farahani, Mansour; Subramanian, S V; Canning, David

    2009-06-01

    While countries with higher levels of human resources for health typically have better population health, the evidence that increases in the level of human resources for health leads to improvements in population health is limited. We use a dynamic regression model to obtain estimates of both the short-run and long-term effects of changes in physicians per capita, our measure of health system resources, on infant mortality. Using a dataset of 99 countries at 5-year intervals from 1960-2000, we estimate that increasing the number of physicians by one per 1000 population (roughly a doubling of current levels of provision) decreases the infant mortality rate by 15% within 5 years and by 45% in the long-run with half the long-run gain being achieved in 15 years. We conclude that the long-run effects of heath system resources are substantially larger than previously estimated. Our results suggest, however, that countries that have delayed action on the Millennium Development Goal of reducing infant and child mortality rate by two-thirds by 2015 (relative to 1990) may have difficulty meeting this goal even if they rapidly increase resources now.

  16. Measurement campaigns for holdup estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Picard, R.R. )

    1988-07-01

    The derivation of technically defensible holdup estimates is described. Considerations important in the planning of measurement campaigns to provide necessary data are reviewed and the role of statistical sampling is discussed. By design, the presentation is nonmathematical and intended for a general audience. Though clearly important, use of sampling principles in the planning of holdup-related activities is sometimes viewed with apprehension. Holdup is often poorly understood to begin with, and the incorporation of the esoteric matters only adds to an image problem. Unfortunately, there are no painless options. In many operating facilities, surface areas on which holdup has accumulated amount to many square miles. It is not practical to pursue 100% measurement of all such surface areas. Thus, some portion is measured - constituting a ''sample,'' whether obtained by a formal procedure or not. Understanding the principles behind sampling is important in planning and in developing legitimate holdup estimates. Although derivation of legitimate, facility-wide holdup estimates is not currently mandated by Department of Energy regulatory requirements, the related activities would greatly advance the present state of knowledge.

  17. Kansas Advanced Semiconductor Project

    SciTech Connect

    Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Bolton, T.; Horton-Smith, G.; Maravin, Y.; Ratra, B.; Stanton, N.; von Toerne, E.; Wilson, G.

    2007-09-21

    KASP (Kansas Advanced Semiconductor Project) completed the new Layer 0 upgrade for D0, assumed key electronics projects for the US CMS project, finished important new physics measurements with the D0 experiment at Fermilab, made substantial contributions to detector studies for the proposed e+e- international linear collider (ILC), and advanced key initiatives in non-accelerator-based neutrino physics.

  18. Drilling at Advanced Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Case, Doug

    1977-01-01

    Instances where drilling is useful for advanced language are discussed. Several types of drills are recommended, with the philosophy that advanced level drills should have a lighter style and be regarded as a useful, occasional means of practicing individual new items. (CHK)

  19. Advanced Engineering Fibers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edie, Dan D.; Dunham, Michael G.

    1987-01-01

    Describes Clemson University's Advanced Engineered Fibers Laboratory, which was established to provide national leadership and expertise in developing the processing equipment and advance fibers necessary for the chemical, fiber, and textile industries to enter the composite materials market. Discusses some of the laboratory's activities in…

  20. Advanced Ceramic Armor Materials

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-05-11

    materials, toughened alumina, fiber -reinforced glass matrix composites, and multilayer-gradient materials for ballistic testing. Fabrication and...material systems: Multilayer advanced armor materials consisting of a hard ceramic faceplate bonded to a graphite fiber -reinforced glass matrix...toughened alumina, and fiber - applied studies of advanced reinforced ceramic matrix glass and glass -ceramic composites for ballistic testing. technologies

  1. Advances in Tissue Engineering

    PubMed Central

    Vacanti, Joseph

    2016-01-01

    Nearly 30 years ago, we reported on a concept now known as Tissue Engineering. Here, we report on some of the advances in this now thriving area of research. In particular, significant advances in tissue engineering of skin, liver, spinal cord, blood vessels, and other areas are discussed. PMID:26711689

  2. Advanced Manufacturing Technologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fikes, John

    2016-01-01

    Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMT) is developing and maturing innovative and advanced manufacturing technologies that will enable more capable and lower-cost spacecraft, launch vehicles and infrastructure to enable exploration missions. The technologies will utilize cutting edge materials and emerging capabilities including metallic processes, additive manufacturing, composites, and digital manufacturing. The AMT project supports the National Manufacturing Initiative involving collaboration with other government agencies.

  3. Advanced Network Security Project

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-12-01

    network. The network observed was the Abilene network of the University Consortium for Advanced Internet Development (UCAID), often known as “ Internet2 ...for Advanced Internet Development (UCAID), often known as “ Internet2 .” This contract was heavily operational in nature, as opposed to a contract

  4. Advances in dental materials.

    PubMed

    Fleming, Garry J P

    2014-05-01

    The dental market is replete with new resorative materials marketed on the basis of novel technological advances in materials chemistry, bonding capability or reduced operator time and/or technique sensitivity. This paper aims to consider advances in current materials, with an emphasis on their role in supporting contemporary clinical practice.

  5. Advanced Life Support

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chambliss, Joe

    2004-01-01

    Viewgraphs on Advanced Life Support (ALS) Systems are presented. The topics include: 1) Fundamental Need for Advanced Life Support; 2) ALS organization; 3) Requirements and Rationale; 4) Past Integrated tests; 5) The need for improvements in life support systems; 6) ALS approach to meet exploration goals; 7) ALS Projects showing promise to meet exploration goals; and 9) GRC involvement in ALS.

  6. Advanced Chemical Propulsion Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woodcock, Gordon; Byers, Dave; Alexander, Leslie A.; Krebsbach, Al

    2004-01-01

    A study was performed of advanced chemical propulsion technology application to space science (Code S) missions. The purpose was to begin the process of selecting chemical propulsion technology advancement activities that would provide greatest benefits to Code S missions. Several missions were selected from Code S planning data, and a range of advanced chemical propulsion options was analyzed to assess capabilities and benefits re these missions. Selected beneficial applications were found for higher-performing bipropellants, gelled propellants, and cryogenic propellants. Technology advancement recommendations included cryocoolers and small turbopump engines for cryogenic propellants; space storable propellants such as LOX-hydrazine; and advanced monopropellants. It was noted that fluorine-bearing oxidizers offer performance gains over more benign oxidizers. Potential benefits were observed for gelled propellants that could be allowed to freeze, then thawed for use.

  7. Advanced Hydrogen Turbine Development

    SciTech Connect

    Joesph Fadok

    2008-01-01

    advanced hydrogen turbine that meets the aggressive targets set forth for the advanced hydrogen turbine, including increased rotor inlet temperature (RIT), lower total cooling and leakage air (TCLA) flow, higher pressure ratio, and higher mass flow through the turbine compared to the baseline. Maintaining efficiency with high mass flow Syngas combustion is achieved using a large high AN2 blade 4, which has been identified as a significant advancement beyond the current state-of-the-art. Preliminary results showed feasibility of a rotor system capable of increased power output and operating conditions above the baseline. In addition, several concepts were developed for casing components to address higher operating conditions. Rare earth modified bond coat for the purpose of reducing oxidation and TBC spallation demonstrated an increase in TBC spallation life of almost 40%. The results from Phase 1 identified two TBC compositions which satisfy the thermal conductivity requirements and have demonstrated phase stability up to temperatures of 1850 C. The potential to join alloys using a bonding process has been demonstrated and initial HVOF spray deposition trials were promising. The qualitative ranking of alloys and coatings in environmental conditions was also performed using isothermal tests where significant variations in alloy degradation were observed as a function of gas composition. Initial basic system configuration schematics and working system descriptions have been produced to define key boundary data and support estimation of costs. Review of existing materials in use for hydrogen transportation show benefits or tradeoffs for materials that could be used in this type of applications. Hydrogen safety will become a larger risk than when using natural gas fuel as the work done to date in other areas has shown direct implications for this type of use. Studies were conducted which showed reduced CO{sub 2} and NOx emissions with increased plant efficiency. An approach to

  8. Aircraft parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iliff, Kenneth W.

    1987-01-01

    The aircraft parameter estimation problem is used to illustrate the utility of parameter estimation, which applies to many engineering and scientific fields. Maximum likelihood estimation has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. This paper presents some of the basic concepts of aircraft parameter estimation and briefly surveys the literature in the field. The maximum likelihood estimator is discussed, and the basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple simulated aircraft example. The cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation from flight data is discussed. Some of the major conclusions for the simulated example are also developed for the analysis of flight data from the F-14, highly maneuverable aircraft technology (HiMAT), and space shuttle vehicles.

  9. Pan-European household and industrial water demand: regional relevant estimations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; de Roo, Ad

    2016-04-01

    Sustainable water management is of high importance to provide adequate quality and quantity of water to European households, industries and agriculture. Especially since demographic, economic and climate changes are expected to increase competition for water between these sectors in the future. A shortage of water implies a reduction in welfare of households or damage to economic sectors. This socio-economic component should be incorporated into the decision-making process when developing water allocation schemes, requiring detailed water use information and cost/benefit functions. We now present the results of our study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water demand and cost-benefit estimations for the household and industry sector. We gathered consistent data on water consumption, water prices and other relevant variables at the highest spatial detail available from national statistical offices and other organizational bodies. This database provides the most detailed up to date picture of present water use and water prices across Europe. The use of homogeneous data allowed us to compare regions and analyze spatial patterns. We applied econometric methods to determine the main determinants of water demand and make a monetary valuation of water for both the domestic and industry sector. This monetary valuation is important to allow water allocation based on economic damage estimates. We also attempted to estimate how population growth, as well as socio-economic and climatic changes impact future water demand up to 2050 using a homogeneous method for all countries. European projections for the identified major drivers of water demand were used to simulate future conditions. Subsequently, water demand functions were applied to estimate future water use and potential economic damage caused by water shortages. We present our results while also providing some estimation of the uncertainty of our predictions.

  10. Information geometric density estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Ke; Marchand-Maillet, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    We investigate kernel density estimation where the kernel function varies from point to point. Density estimation in the input space means to find a set of coordinates on a statistical manifold. This novel perspective helps to combine efforts from information geometry and machine learning to spawn a family of density estimators. We present example models with simulations. We discuss the principle and theory of such density estimation.

  11. Fuel Burn Estimation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chatterji, Gano

    2011-01-01

    Conclusions: Validated the fuel estimation procedure using flight test data. A good fuel model can be created if weight and fuel data are available. Error in assumed takeoff weight results in similar amount of error in the fuel estimate. Fuel estimation error bounds can be determined.

  12. Making Connections with Estimation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lobato, Joanne E.

    1993-01-01

    Describes four methods to structure estimation activities that enable students to make connections between their understanding of numbers and extensions of those concepts to estimating. Presents activities that connect estimation with other curricular areas, other mathematical topics, and real-world applications. (MDH)

  13. Price Estimation Guidelines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Aster, R. W.; Firnett, P. J.; Miller, M. A.

    1985-01-01

    Improved Price Estimation Guidelines, IPEG4, program provides comparatively simple, yet relatively accurate estimate of price of manufactured product. IPEG4 processes user supplied input data to determine estimate of price per unit of production. Input data include equipment cost, space required, labor cost, materials and supplies cost, utility expenses, and production volume on industry wide or process wide basis.

  14. Ethiopian Wheat Yield and Yield Gap Estimation: A Spatial Small Area Integrated Data Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, M.; Warner, J.

    2015-12-01

    Despite the collection of routine annual agricultural surveys and significant advances in GIS and remote sensing products, little econometric research has been undertaken in predicting developing nation's agricultural yields. In this paper, we explore the determinants of wheat output per hectare in Ethiopia during the 2011-2013 Meher crop seasons aggregated to the woreda administrative area. Using a panel data approach, combining national agricultural field surveys with relevant GIS and remote sensing products, the model explains nearly 40% of the total variation in wheat output per hectare across the country. The model also identifies specific contributors to wheat yields that include farm management techniques (eg. area planted, improved seed, fertilizer, irrigation), weather (eg. rainfall), water availability (vegetation and moisture deficit indexes) and policy intervention. Our findings suggest that woredas produce between 9.8 and 86.5% of their potential wheat output per hectare given their altitude, weather conditions, terrain, and plant health. At the median, Amhara, Oromiya, SNNP, and Tigray produce 48.6, 51.5, 49.7, and 61.3% of their local attainable yields, respectively. This research has a broad range of applications, especially from a public policy perspective: identifying causes of yield fluctuations, remotely evaluating larger agricultural intervention packages, and analyzing relative yield potential. Overall, the combination of field surveys with spatial data can be used to identify management priorities for improving production at a variety of administrative levels.

  15. A hierarchical estimator development for estimation of tire-road friction coefficient

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Xudong; Göhlich, Dietmar

    2017-01-01

    The effect of vehicle active safety systems is subject to the friction force arising from the contact of tires and the road surface. Therefore, an adequate knowledge of the tire-road friction coefficient is of great importance to achieve a good performance of these control systems. This paper presents a tire-road friction coefficient estimation method for an advanced vehicle configuration, four-motorized-wheel electric vehicles, in which the longitudinal tire force is easily obtained. A hierarchical structure is adopted for the proposed estimation design. An upper estimator is developed based on unscented Kalman filter to estimate vehicle state information, while a hybrid estimation method is applied as the lower estimator to identify the tire-road friction coefficient using general regression neural network (GRNN) and Bayes' theorem. GRNN aims at detecting road friction coefficient under small excitations, which are the most common situations in daily driving. GRNN is able to accurately create a mapping from input parameters to the friction coefficient, avoiding storing an entire complex tire model. As for large excitations, the estimation algorithm is based on Bayes' theorem and a simplified “magic formula” tire model. The integrated estimation method is established by the combination of the above-mentioned estimators. Finally, the simulations based on a high-fidelity CarSim vehicle model are carried out on different road surfaces and driving maneuvers to verify the effectiveness of the proposed estimation method. PMID:28178332

  16. A hierarchical estimator development for estimation of tire-road friction coefficient.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xudong; Göhlich, Dietmar

    2017-01-01

    The effect of vehicle active safety systems is subject to the friction force arising from the contact of tires and the road surface. Therefore, an adequate knowledge of the tire-road friction coefficient is of great importance to achieve a good performance of these control systems. This paper presents a tire-road friction coefficient estimation method for an advanced vehicle configuration, four-motorized-wheel electric vehicles, in which the longitudinal tire force is easily obtained. A hierarchical structure is adopted for the proposed estimation design. An upper estimator is developed based on unscented Kalman filter to estimate vehicle state information, while a hybrid estimation method is applied as the lower estimator to identify the tire-road friction coefficient using general regression neural network (GRNN) and Bayes' theorem. GRNN aims at detecting road friction coefficient under small excitations, which are the most common situations in daily driving. GRNN is able to accurately create a mapping from input parameters to the friction coefficient, avoiding storing an entire complex tire model. As for large excitations, the estimation algorithm is based on Bayes' theorem and a simplified "magic formula" tire model. The integrated estimation method is established by the combination of the above-mentioned estimators. Finally, the simulations based on a high-fidelity CarSim vehicle model are carried out on different road surfaces and driving maneuvers to verify the effectiveness of the proposed estimation method.

  17. Advanced electron microscopy for advanced materials.

    PubMed

    Van Tendeloo, Gustaaf; Bals, Sara; Van Aert, Sandra; Verbeeck, Jo; Van Dyck, Dirk

    2012-11-08

    The idea of this Review is to introduce newly developed possibilities of advanced electron microscopy to the materials science community. Over the last decade, electron microscopy has evolved into a full analytical tool, able to provide atomic scale information on the position, nature, and even the valency atoms. This information is classically obtained in two dimensions (2D), but can now also be obtained in 3D. We show examples of applications in the field of nanoparticles and interfaces.

  18. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Tools, Algorithms, and Methodologies

    SciTech Connect

    David E. Shropshire

    2009-05-01

    The Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI) Systems Analysis supports engineering economic analyses and trade-studies, and requires a requisite reference cost basis to support adequate analysis rigor. In this regard, the AFCI program has created a reference set of economic documentation. The documentation consists of the “Advanced Fuel Cycle (AFC) Cost Basis” report (Shropshire, et al. 2007), “AFCI Economic Analysis” report, and the “AFCI Economic Tools, Algorithms, and Methodologies Report.” Together, these documents provide the reference cost basis, cost modeling basis, and methodologies needed to support AFCI economic analysis. The application of the reference cost data in the cost and econometric systems analysis models will be supported by this report. These methodologies include: the energy/environment/economic evaluation of nuclear technology penetration in the energy market—domestic and internationally—and impacts on AFCI facility deployment, uranium resource modeling to inform the front-end fuel cycle costs, facility first-of-a-kind to nth-of-a-kind learning with application to deployment of AFCI facilities, cost tradeoffs to meet nuclear non-proliferation requirements, and international nuclear facility supply/demand analysis. The economic analysis will be performed using two cost models. VISION.ECON will be used to evaluate and compare costs under dynamic conditions, consistent with the cases and analysis performed by the AFCI Systems Analysis team. Generation IV Excel Calculations of Nuclear Systems (G4-ECONS) will provide static (snapshot-in-time) cost analysis and will provide a check on the dynamic results. In future analysis, additional AFCI measures may be developed to show the value of AFCI in closing the fuel cycle. Comparisons can show AFCI in terms of reduced global proliferation (e.g., reduction in enrichment), greater sustainability through preservation of a natural resource (e.g., reduction in uranium ore depletion), value from

  19. Recent advances in phosphate biosensors.

    PubMed

    Upadhyay, Lata Sheo Bachan; Verma, Nishant

    2015-07-01

    A number of biosensors have been developed for phosphate analysis particularly, concerning its negative impact within the environmental and biological systems. Enzymatic biosensors comprising either a single or multiple enzymatic system have been extensively used for the direct and indirect analysis of phosphate ions. Furthermore, some non-enzymatic biosensors, such as affinity-based biosensors, provide an alternative analytical approach with a higher selectivity. This article reviews the recent advances in the field of biosensor developed for phosphate estimation in clinical and environmental samples, concerning the techniques involved, and the sensitivity toward phosphate ions. The biosensors have been classified and discussed on the basis of the number of enzymes used to develop the analytical system, and a comparative analysis has been performed.

  20. Advanced biostack experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buecker, H.

    1981-01-01

    The Advanced Biostack Experiment is described. The objectives are: (1) to confirm, complement, and enlarge the information obtained from the previous experiments by applying improved and advanced methods of localization and physical and biological evaluation, performing advanced experiments based on these data, and including additional biological specimens and additional radiation detectors; (2) to determine the biological importance of nuclear disintegration stars; (3) to determine the interference of HZE particle induced effects with those of other space flight factors (e.g., weightlessness); and (4) to determine the distribution of HZE particles and of disintegration stars at different locations inside the module and on the pallet.

  1. Advanced Computer Typography.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-12-01

    ADVANCED COMPUTER TYPOGRAPHY .(U) DEC 81 A V HERSHEY UNCLASSIFIED NPS012-81-005 M MEEEIEEEII IIUJIL15I.4 MICROCQP RE SO.JjI ON ft R NPS012-81-005...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL 0Monterey, California DTIC SELECTEWA APR 5 1982 B ADVANCED COMPUTER TYPOGRAPHY by A. V. HERSHEY December 1981 OApproved for...Subtitle) S. TYPE Or REPORT & PERIOD COVERED Final ADVANCED COMPUTER TYPOGRAPHY Dec 1979 - Dec 1981 S. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7. AUTHOR(s) S CONTRACT

  2. Advanced Electronic Technology.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1978-11-15

    It AD AObS 062 MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH LEXINGTON LINCOLN LAB F/S 9/S ADVANCED ELECTRONIC TECHNOLOGY .(U) NOV 78 A J MCLAUGHLIN. A L MCWHORTER...T I T U T E OF T E C H N O L O G Y L I N C O L N L A B O R A T O R Y ADVANCED ELECTRONIC TECHNOLOGY QUARTERLY TECKNICAL SUMMAR Y REPORT TO THE AIR...Division 8 (Solid State) on the Advanced Electronic Technology Program. Hi

  3. Advanced information society(7)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiba, Toshihiro

    Various threats are hiding in advanced informationalized society. As we see car accident problems in motorization society light aspects necessarily accompy shady ones. Under the changing circumstances of advanced informationalization added values of information has become much higher. It causes computer crime, hacker, computer virus to come to the surface. In addition it can be said that infringement of intellectual property and privacy are threats brought by advanced information. Against these threats legal, institutional and insurance measures have been progressed, and newly security industry has been established. However, they are not adequate individually or totally. The future vision should be clarified, and countermeasures according to the visions have to be considered.

  4. The ADvanced SEParation (ADSEP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    The ADvanced SEParation (ADSEP) commercial payload is making use of major advances in separation technology: The Phase Partitioning Experiment (PPE); the Micorencapsulation experiment; and the Hemoglobin Separation Experiment (HSE). Using ADSEP, commercial researchers will attempt to determine the partition coefficients for model particles in a two-phase system. With this information, researchers can develop a higher resolution, more effective cell isolation procedure that can be used for many different types of research and for improved health care. The advanced separation technology is already being made available for use in ground-based laboratories.

  5. Estimating School Efficiency: A Comparison of Methods Using Simulated Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bifulco, Robert; Bretschneider, Stuart

    2001-01-01

    Uses simulated data to assess the adequacy of two econometric and linear-programming techniques (data-envelopment analysis and corrected ordinary least squares) for measuring performance-based school reform. In complex data sets (simulated to contain measurement error and endogeneity), these methods are inadequate efficiency measures. (Contains 40…

  6. Advances in cell culture

    SciTech Connect

    Maramorosch, K. )

    1987-01-01

    This book presents papers on advances in cell culture. Topics covered include: Genetic changes in the influenza viruses during growth in cultured cells; The biochemistry and genetics of mosquito cells in culture; and Tree tissue culture applications.

  7. Advanced information society(2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masuyama, Keiichi

    Our modern life is full of information and information infiltrates into our daily life. Networking of the telecommunication is extended to society, company, and individual level. Although we have just entered the advanced information society, business world and our daily life have been steadily transformed by the advancement of information network. This advancement of information brings a big influence on economy, and will play they the main role in the expansion of domestic demands. This paper tries to view the image of coming advanced information society, focusing on the transforming businessman's life and the situation of our daily life, which became wealthy by the spread of daily life information and the visual information by satellite system, in the development of the intelligent city.

  8. Advanced Electrochemical Waste Forms

    SciTech Connect

    Riley, Brian J.; Crum, Jarrod V.; McCloy, John S.; Matyas, Josef

    2011-12-01

    This is a brief description of PNNL's efforts in FY2011 towards developing advanced electrochemical waste forms. This is a short section that will become part of a larger document being put together by INL.

  9. Advanced care directives

    MedlinePlus

    ... you want no matter how ill you are. Writing an advance care directive may be hard. You ... wishes usually replace those you made previously in writing. Additional Information Write your living will or health ...

  10. Advance Control Measures & Programs

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    As areas develop their path forward or action plan, they should consider a variety of voluntary and mandatory measures and programs. The resources on this page can help, and participants are also encouraged to talk with their EPA Advance contact

  11. Living with Advanced MS

    MedlinePlus

    ... more progressive disease course. Taking these factors into account can help you and your family plan more effectively for the future. Identifying options The key message to anyone living with advanced MS is ...

  12. Advanced Welding Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ding, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    Four advanced welding techniques and their use in NASA are briefly reviewed in this poster presentation. The welding techniques reviewed are: Solid State Welding, Friction Stir Welding (FSW), Thermal Stir Welding (TSW) and Ultrasonic Stir Welding.

  13. Advances in Process Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, David L.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    Advances in electronics and computer science have enabled industries (pulp/paper, iron/steel, petroleum/chemical) to attain better control of their processes with resulting increases in quality, productivity, profitability, and compliance with government regulations. (JN)

  14. Advanced urology nursing practice.

    PubMed

    Crowe, Helen

    2014-03-01

    Urology nursing has developed as a specialty over the past few decades in response to several factors, workload demands being a prime reason. Nurses are taking on additional roles and activities including procedures such as cystoscopy and prostate biopsy, and running nurse-led clinics for a variety of urological conditions. Audits of advanced urological nursing practice have shown this care to be of a high standard and investigative procedures performed by these nurses match the diagnostic quality of existing services. Professional urological nursing organizations support the professional needs of these nurses, but the provision of education and training for advanced practice activities remains an unaddressed need. A range of confusing advanced urology nursing titles exists, and uncertainty regarding the roles and scope of practice for these nurses remains a concern. Acceptance and support from medical colleagues is required for the success of advanced urological nursing practice, but opinions on these roles remain divided.

  15. Advanced Welding Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ding, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    Some of the applications of advanced welding techniques are shown in this poster presentation. Included are brief explanations of the use on the Ares I and Ares V launch vehicle and on the Space Shuttle Launch vehicle. Also included are microstructural views from four advanced welding techniques: Variable Polarity Plasma Arc (VPPA) weld (fusion), self-reacting friction stir welding (SR-FSW), conventional FSW, and Tube Socket Weld (TSW) on aluminum.

  16. Advanced Usability Evaluation Methods

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-04-01

    tracking in usability evaluation : A practitioner’s guide. In J. Hyönä, R. Radach, & H. Deubel. (Eds.), The mind’s eye: Cognitive and applied...Advanced Usability Evaluation Methods Terence S. Andre, Lt Col, USAF Margaret Schurig, Human Factors Design Specialist, The Boeing Co...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Advanced Usability Evaluation Methods 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT

  17. Estimation in satellite control.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Debra, D. B.

    1971-01-01

    The use of estimators or observers is discussed as applied to satellite attitude control and the control of drag-free satellites. The practical problems of implementation are discussed, and the relative advantages of full and reduced state estimators are compared, particularly in terms of their effectiveness and bandwidth as filters. Three applications are used to illustrate the principles. They are: (1) a reaction wheel control system, (2) a spinning attitude control system, and (3) a drag-free satellite translational control system. Fixed estimator gains are shown to be adequate for these (and many other) applications. Our experience in the hardware realization of estimators has led to categorize the error sources in terms of those that improve with increased estimator gains and those that get worse with increased estimator gains.

  18. Multitaper Spectrum Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fodor, I. K.; Stark, P. B.

    Multitapering is a statistical technique developed to improve on the notorious periodogram estimate of the power spectrum (Thomson, 1982; Percival, Walden 1993). We show how to obtain orthogonal tapers for time series observed with gaps, and how to use statistical resampling techniques (Efron, Tibshirani 1993) to calculate realistic uncertainty estimates for multitaper estimates. We introduce multisegment multitapering. Multitapering can also be extended to the 2D case. We indicate how to construct tapers that minimize the spatial leakage in estimates of the spherical harmonic decomposition of the velocity images. Spatial multitapering followed by the temporal tapering of the estimated spherical harmonic time series is expected to result in improved spectrum and subsequent solar oscillation mode parameter estimates.

  19. Estimating Airline Operating Costs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maddalon, D. V.

    1978-01-01

    The factors affecting commercial aircraft operating and delay costs were used to develop an airline operating cost model which includes a method for estimating the labor and material costs of individual airframe maintenance systems. The model permits estimates of aircraft related costs, i.e., aircraft service, landing fees, flight attendants, and control fees. A method for estimating the costs of certain types of airline delay is also described.

  20. Estimating Prices of Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aster, R. W.; Chamberlain, R. G.; Zendejas, S. C.; Lee, T. S.; Malhotra, S.

    1986-01-01

    Company-wide or process-wide production simulated. Price Estimation Guidelines (IPEG) program provides simple, accurate estimates of prices of manufactured products. Simplification of SAMIS allows analyst with limited time and computing resources to perform greater number of sensitivity studies. Although developed for photovoltaic industry, readily adaptable to standard assembly-line type of manufacturing industry. IPEG program estimates annual production price per unit. IPEG/PC program written in TURBO PASCAL.

  1. Psychiatric Advance Directives: Getting Started

    MedlinePlus

    ... More... Home Getting Started National Resource Center on Psychiatric Advance Directives - Getting Started Getting Started Psychiatric advance directives (PADs) are relatively new legal instruments ...

  2. Reservoir Temperature Estimator

    SciTech Connect

    Palmer, Carl D.

    2014-12-08

    The Reservoir Temperature Estimator (RTEst) is a program that can be used to estimate deep geothermal reservoir temperature and chemical parameters such as CO2 fugacity based on the water chemistry of shallower, cooler reservoir fluids. This code uses the plugin features provided in The Geochemist’s Workbench (Bethke and Yeakel, 2011) and interfaces with the model-independent parameter estimation code Pest (Doherty, 2005) to provide for optimization of the estimated parameters based on the minimization of the weighted sum of squares of a set of saturation indexes from a user-provided mineral assemblage.

  3. Parameter estimating state reconstruction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    George, E. B.

    1976-01-01

    Parameter estimation is considered for systems whose entire state cannot be measured. Linear observers are designed to recover the unmeasured states to a sufficient accuracy to permit the estimation process. There are three distinct dynamics that must be accommodated in the system design: the dynamics of the plant, the dynamics of the observer, and the system updating of the parameter estimation. The latter two are designed to minimize interaction of the involved systems. These techniques are extended to weakly nonlinear systems. The application to a simulation of a space shuttle POGO system test is of particular interest. A nonlinear simulation of the system is developed, observers designed, and the parameters estimated.

  4. WAATS: A computer program for Weights Analysis of Advanced Transportation Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glatt, C. R.

    1974-01-01

    A historical weight estimating technique for advanced transportation systems is presented. The classical approach to weight estimation is discussed and sufficient data is presented to estimate weights for a large spectrum of flight vehicles including horizontal and vertical takeoff aircraft, boosters and reentry vehicles. A computer program, WAATS (Weights Analysis for Advanced Transportation Systems) embracing the techniques discussed has been written and user instructions are presented. The program was developed for use in the ODIN (Optimal Design Integration System) system.

  5. Recruit and ADVANCE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosser, Sue V.

    2007-04-01

    Beginning in 2001, the National Science Foundation launched the ADVANCE Initiative, which has now awarded more than 70 million to some thirty institutions for transformations to advance women. Results of studies on how to attract and retain women students and faculty underpinned our ADVANCE Institutional Transformation grant funded by the NSF for 3.7 million for five years, beginning in 2001. As co-principal investigator on this grant, I insured that this research informed the five major threads of the grant: 1) Four termed ADVANCE professors to mentor junior women faculty in each college; 2) Collection of MIT-Report-like data indicators to assess whether advancement of women really occurs during and after the institutional transformation undertaken through ADVANCE; 3) Family-friendly policies and practices to stop the tenure clock and provide active service, modified duties, lactation stations and day care; 4) Mini-retreats to facilitate access for tenure-track women faculty to male decision-makers and administrators for informal conversations and discussion on topics important to women faculty; 5) Removal of subtle gender, racial, and other biases in promotion and tenure. The dynamic changes resulting from the grant in quality of mentoring, new understanding of promotion and tenure, numbers of women retained and given endowed chairs, and emergence of new family friendly policies gave me hope for genuine diversification of leadership in science and technology. As the grant funding ends, the absence of NSF prestige and monitoring, coupled with a change in academic leadership at the top, provide new challenges for institutionalization, recruitment, and advancement of women into leadership positions in science and engineering.

  6. Estimating irrigation water demand in the Moroccan Drâa Valley using contingent valuation.

    PubMed

    Storm, Hugo; Heckelei, Thomas; Heidecke, Claudia

    2011-10-01

    Irrigation water management is crucial for agricultural production and livelihood security in Morocco as in many other parts of the world. For the implementation of an effective water management, knowledge about farmers' demand for irrigation water is crucial to assess reactions to water pricing policy, to establish a cost-benefit analysis of water supply investments or to determine the optimal water allocation between different users. Previously used econometric methods providing this information often have prohibitive data requirements. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is adjusted to derive a demand function for irrigation water along farmers' willingness to pay for one additional unit of surface water or groundwater. An application in the Middle Drâa Valley in Morocco shows that the method provides reasonable results in an environment with limited data availability. For analysing the censored survey data, the Least Absolute Deviation estimator was found to be a more suitable alternative to the Tobit model as errors are heteroscedastic and non-normally distributed. The adjusted CVM to derive demand functions is especially attractive for water scarce countries under limited data availability.

  7. Urbanization and agricultural land loss in India: comparing satellite estimates with census data.

    PubMed

    Pandey, Bhartendu; Seto, Karen C

    2015-01-15

    We examine the impacts of urbanization on agricultural land loss in India from 2001 to 2010. We combined a hierarchical classification approach with econometric time series analysis to reconstruct land-cover change histories using time series MODIS 250 m VI images composited at 16-day intervals and night time lights (NTL) data. We compared estimates of agricultural land loss using satellite data with agricultural census data. Our analysis highlights six key results. First, agricultural land loss is occurring around smaller cities more than around bigger cities. Second, from 2001 to 2010, each state lost less than 1% of its total geographical area due to agriculture to urban expansion. Third, the northeastern states experienced the least amount of agricultural land loss. Fourth, agricultural land loss is largely in states and districts which have a larger number of operational or approved SEZs. Fifth, urban conversion of agricultural land is concentrated in a few districts and states with high rates of economic growth. Sixth, agricultural land loss is predominantly in states with higher agricultural land suitability compared to other states. Although the total area of agricultural land lost to urban expansion has been relatively low, our results show that since 2006, the amount of agricultural land converted has been increasing steadily. Given that the preponderance of India's urban population growth has yet to occur, the results suggest an increase in the conversion of agricultural land going into the future.

  8. Estimating Evapotranspiration with Land Data Assimilation Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Kumar, S. V.; Mocko, D. M.; Tian, Y.

    2011-01-01

    Advancements in both land surface models (LSM) and land surface data assimilation, especially over the last decade, have substantially advanced the ability of land data assimilation systems (LDAS) to estimate evapotranspiration (ET). This article provides a historical perspective on international LSM intercomparison efforts and the development of LDAS systems, both of which have improved LSM ET skill. In addition, an assessment of ET estimates for current LDAS systems is provided along with current research that demonstrates improvement in LSM ET estimates due to assimilating satellite-based soil moisture products. Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter in the Land Information System, we assimilate both NASA and Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) soil moisture products into the Noah LSM Version 3.2 with the North American LDAS phase 2 (NLDAS-2) forcing to mimic the NLDAS-2 configuration. Through comparisons with two global reference ET products, one based on interpolated flux tower data and one from a new satellite ET algorithm, over the NLDAS2 domain, we demonstrate improvement in ET estimates only when assimilating the LPRM soil moisture product.

  9. New High Throughput Methods to Estimate Chemical ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has made many recent advances in high throughput bioactivity testing. However, concurrent advances in rapid, quantitative prediction of human and ecological exposures have been lacking, despite the clear importance of both measures for a risk-based approach to prioritizing and screening chemicals. A recent report by the National Research Council of the National Academies, Exposure Science in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy (NRC 2012) laid out a number of applications in chemical evaluation of both toxicity and risk in critical need of quantitative exposure predictions, including screening and prioritization of chemicals for targeted toxicity testing, focused exposure assessments or monitoring studies, and quantification of population vulnerability. Despite these significant needs, for the majority of chemicals (e.g. non-pesticide environmental compounds) there are no or limited estimates of exposure. For example, exposure estimates exist for only 7% of the ToxCast Phase II chemical list. In addition, the data required for generating exposure estimates for large numbers of chemicals is severely lacking (Egeghy et al. 2012). This SAP reviewed the use of EPA's ExpoCast model to rapidly estimate potential chemical exposures for prioritization and screening purposes. The focus was on bounded chemical exposure values for people and the environment for the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP) Universe of Chemicals. In addition to exposure, the SAP

  10. Advanced Microturbine Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Rosfjord, T; Tredway, W; Chen, A; Mulugeta, J; Bhatia, T

    2008-12-31

    In July 2000, the United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) was one of five recipients of a US Department of Energy contract under the Advanced Microturbine System (AMS) program managed by the Office of Distributed Energy (DE). The AMS program resulted from several government-industry workshops that recognized that microturbine systems could play an important role in improving customer choice and value for electrical power. That is, the group believed that electrical power could be delivered to customers more efficiently and reliably than the grid if an effective distributed energy strategy was followed. Further, the production of this distributed power would be accomplished with less undesirable pollutants of nitric oxides (NOx) unburned hydrocarbons (UHC), and carbon monoxide (CO). In 2000, the electrical grid delivered energy to US customers at a national average of approximately 32% efficiency. This value reflects a wide range of powerplants, but is dominated by older, coal burning stations that provide approximately 50% of US electrical power. The grid efficiency is also affected by transmission and distribution (T&D) line losses that can be significant during peak power usage. In some locations this loss is estimated to be 15%. Load pockets can also be so constrained that sufficient power cannot be transmitted without requiring the installation of new wires. New T&D can be very expensive and challenging as it is often required in populated regions that do not want above ground wires. While historically grid reliability has satisfied most customers, increasing electronic transactions and the computer-controlled processes of the 'digital economy' demand higher reliability. For them, power outages can be very costly because of transaction, work-in-progress, or perishable commodity losses. Powerplants that produce the grid electrical power emit significant levels of undesirable NOx, UHC, and CO pollutants. The level of emission is quoted as either a technology

  11. Do Advance Directives Direct?

    PubMed

    Shapiro, Susan P

    2015-06-01

    Resolution of long-standing debates about the role and impact of advance directives - living wills and powers of attorney for health care - has been hampered by a dearth of appropriate data, in particular data that compare the process and outcomes of end-of-life decision making on behalf of patients with and without advance directives. Drawing on a large ethnographic study of patients in two intensive care units in a large urban teaching hospital, this article compares aspects of the medical decision-making process and outcomes by advance-directive status. Controlling for demographic characteristics and severity of illness, the study finds few significant differences between patients without advance directives and those who claim to have them. Surprisingly, these few differences hold only for those whose directives are in their hospital chart. There are no significant differences between those with no directive and those claiming to have a copy at home or elsewhere. The article considers the implications if directives seemingly must be in hand to show even modest effects. Do advance directives direct? The intensive care unit data provide far more support for the growing body of literature that casts doubt on their impact than studies that promote the use of them.

  12. Economic benefits of advanced materials in nuclear power systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Busby, J. T.

    2009-07-01

    A key obstacle to the commercial deployment of advanced fast reactors is the capital cost. There is a perception of higher capital cost for fast reactor systems than advanced light water reactors. However, cost estimates come with a large uncertainty since far fewer fast reactors have been built than light water reactor facilities. Furthermore, the large variability of industrial cost estimates complicates accurate comparisons. Reductions in capital cost can result from design simplifications, new technologies that allow reduced capital costs, and simulation techniques that help optimize system design. It is plausible that improved materials will provide opportunities for both simplified design and reduced capital cost. Advanced materials may also allow improved safety and longer component lifetimes. This work examines the potential impact of advanced materials on the capital investment cost of fast nuclear reactors.

  13. Estimating Latent Distributions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mislevy, Robert J.

    1984-01-01

    Assuming vectors of item responses depend on ability through a fully specified item response model, this paper presents maximum likelihood equations for estimating the population parameters without estimating an ability parameter for each subject. Asymptotic standard errors, tests of fit, computing approximations, and details of four special cases…

  14. Estimating mutual information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kraskov, Alexander; Stögbauer, Harald; Grassberger, Peter

    2004-06-01

    We present two classes of improved estimators for mutual information M(X,Y) , from samples of random points distributed according to some joint probability density μ(x,y) . In contrast to conventional estimators based on binnings, they are based on entropy estimates from k -nearest neighbor distances. This means that they are data efficient (with k=1 we resolve structures down to the smallest possible scales), adaptive (the resolution is higher where data are more numerous), and have minimal bias. Indeed, the bias of the underlying entropy estimates is mainly due to nonuniformity of the density at the smallest resolved scale, giving typically systematic errors which scale as functions of k/N for N points. Numerically, we find that both families become exact for independent distributions, i.e. the estimator M̂ (X,Y) vanishes (up to statistical fluctuations) if μ(x,y)=μ(x)μ(y) . This holds for all tested marginal distributions and for all dimensions of x and y . In addition, we give estimators for redundancies between more than two random variables. We compare our algorithms in detail with existing algorithms. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our estimators for assessing the actual independence of components obtained from independent component analysis (ICA), for improving ICA, and for estimating the reliability of blind source separation.

  15. Fano factor estimation.

    PubMed

    Rajdl, Kamil; Lansky, Petr

    2014-02-01

    Fano factor is one of the most widely used measures of variability of spike trains. Its standard estimator is the ratio of sample variance to sample mean of spike counts observed in a time window and the quality of the estimator strongly depends on the length of the window. We investigate this dependence under the assumption that the spike train behaves as an equilibrium renewal process. It is shown what characteristics of the spike train have large effect on the estimator bias. Namely, the effect of refractory period is analytically evaluated. Next, we create an approximate asymptotic formula for the mean square error of the estimator, which can also be used to find minimum of the error in estimation from single spike trains. The accuracy of the Fano factor estimator is compared with the accuracy of the estimator based on the squared coefficient of variation. All the results are illustrated for spike trains with gamma and inverse Gaussian probability distributions of interspike intervals. Finally, we discuss possibilities of how to select a suitable observation window for the Fano factor estimation.

  16. Time Delay Estimation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-01

    investigate the possibility of exploiting the properties of a detected Low Probability of Intercept (LPI) signal waveform to estimate time delay, and by...ratios, namely 10 dB and less. We also examine the minimum time –delay estimate error – the Cramer–Rao bound. The results indicate that the method

  17. Advanced Earth Observation System Instrumentation Study (aeosis)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    White, R.; Grant, F.; Malchow, H.; Walker, B.

    1975-01-01

    Various types of measurements were studied for estimating the orbit and/or attitude of an Earth Observation Satellite. An investigation was made into the use of known ground targets in the earth sensor imagery, in combination with onboard star sightings and/or range and range rate measurements by ground tracking stations or tracking satellites (TDRSS), to estimate satellite attitude, orbital ephemeris, and gyro bias drift. Generalized measurement equations were derived for star measurements with a particular type of star tracker, and for landmark measurements with a multispectral scanner being proposed for an advanced Earth Observation Satellite. The use of infra-red horizon measurements to estimate the attitude and gyro bias drift of a geosynchronous satellite was explored.

  18. Dating Tips for Divergence-Time Estimation.

    PubMed

    O'Reilly, Joseph E; dos Reis, Mario; Donoghue, Philip C J

    2015-11-01

    The molecular clock is the only viable means of establishing an accurate timescale for Life on Earth, but it remains reliant on a capricious fossil record for calibration. 'Tip-dating' promises a conceptual advance, integrating fossil species among their living relatives using molecular/morphological datasets and evolutionary models. Fossil species of known age establish calibration directly, and their phylogenetic uncertainty is accommodated through the co-estimation of time and topology. However, challenges remain, including a dearth of effective models of morphological evolution, rate correlation, the non-random nature of missing characters in fossil data, and, most importantly, accommodating uncertainty in fossil age. We show uncertainty in fossil-dating propagates to divergence-time estimates, yielding estimates that are older and less precise than those based on traditional node calibration. Ultimately, node and tip calibrations are not mutually incompatible and may be integrated to achieve more accurate and precise evolutionary timescales.

  19. Robust incremental condition estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Bischof, C.H.; Tang, P.T.P.

    1991-03-29

    This paper presents an improved version of incremental condition estimation, a technique for tracking the extremal singular values of a triangular matrix as it is being constructed one column at a time. We present a new motivation for this estimation technique using orthogonal projections. The paper focuses on an implementation of this estimation scheme in an accurate and consistent fashion. In particular, we address the subtle numerical issues arising in the computation of the eigensystem of a symmetric rank-one perturbed diagonal 2 {times} 2 matrix. Experimental results show that the resulting scheme does a good job in estimating the extremal singular values of triangular matrices, independent of matrix size and matrix condition number, and that it performs qualitatively in the same fashion as some of the commonly used nonincremental condition estimation schemes.

  20. Advanced transmission studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coy, John J.; Bill, Robert C.

    1988-01-01

    The NASA Lewis Research Center and the U.S. Army Aviation Systems Command share an interest in advancing the technology for helicopter propulsion systems. In particular, this paper presents highlights from that portion of the program in drive train technology and the related mechanical components. The major goals of the program are to increase the life, reliability, and maintainability; reduce the weight, noise, and vibration; and maintain the relatively high mechanical efficiency of the gear train. The current activity emphasizes noise reduction technology and analytical code development followed by experimental verification. Selected significant advances in technology for transmissions are reviewed, including advanced configurations and new analytical tools. Finally, the plan for future transmission research is presented.

  1. Advanced servomanipulator development

    SciTech Connect

    Kuban, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    The Advanced Servomanipulator (ASM) System consists of three major components: the ASM slave, the dual arm master controller (DAMC) or master, and the control system. The ASM is remotely maintainable force-reflecting servomanipulator developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as part of the Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program. This new manipulator addresses requirements of advanced nuclear fuel reprocessing with emphasis on force reflection, remote maintainability, reliability, radiation tolerance, and corrosion resistance. The advanced servomanipulator is uniquely subdivided into remotely replaceable modules which will permit in situ manipulator repair by spare module replacement. Manipulator modularization and increased reliability are accomplished through a force transmission system that uses gears and torque tubes. Digital control algorithms and mechanical precision are used to offset the increased backlash, friction, and inertia resulting from the gear drives. This results in the first remotely maintainable force-reflecting servomanipulator in the world.

  2. Advanced thermionic energy conversion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Britt, E. J.; Fitzpatrick, G. D.; Hansen, L. K.; Rasor, N. S.

    1974-01-01

    Basic analytical and experimental exploration was conducted on several types of advanced thermionic energy converters, and preliminary analysis was performed on systems utilizing advanced converter performance. The Pt--Nb cylindrical diode which exhibited a suppressed arc drop, as described in the preceding report, was reassembled and the existence of the postulated hydrid mode of operation was tentatively confirmed. Initial data obtained on ignited and unignited triode operation in the demountable cesium vapor system essentially confirmed the design principles developed in earlier work, with a few exceptions. Three specific advanced converter concepts were selected as candidates for concentrated basic study and for practical evaluation in fixed-configuration converters. Test vehicles and test stands for these converters and a unique controlled-atmosphere station for converter assembly and processing were designed, and procurement was initiated.

  3. Advanced Aerodynamic Control Effectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wood, Richard M.; Bauer, Steven X. S.

    1999-01-01

    A 1990 research program that focused on the development of advanced aerodynamic control effectors (AACE) for military aircraft has been reviewed and summarized. Data are presented for advanced planform, flow control, and surface contouring technologies. The data show significant increases in lift, reductions in drag, and increased control power, compared to typical aerodynamic designs. The results presented also highlighted the importance of planform selection in the design of a control effector suite. Planform data showed that dramatic increases in lift (greater than 25%) can be achieved with multiple wings and a sawtooth forebody. Passive porosity and micro drag generator control effector data showed control power levels exceeding that available from typical effectors (moving surfaces). Application of an advanced planform to a tailless concept showed benefits of similar magnitude as those observed in the generic studies.

  4. [Advanced Composites Technology Initiatives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Julian, Mark R.

    2002-01-01

    This final report closes out the W02 NASA Grant #NCC5-646. The FY02 grant for advanced technology initiatives through the Advanced Composites Technology Institute in Bridgeport, WV, at the Robert C. Byrd Institute (RCBI) Bridgeport Manufacturing Technology Center, is complete; all funding has been expended. RCBI continued to expand access to technology; develop and implement a workforce-training curriculum; improve material development; and provide prototyping and demonstrations of new and advanced composites technologies for West Virginia composites firms. The FY 02 efforts supported workforce development, technical training and the HST development effort of a super-lightweight composite carrier prototype and expanded the existing technical capabilities of the growing aerospace industry across West Virginia to provide additional support for NASA missions. Additionally, the Composites Technology and Training Center was awarded IS0 9001 - 2000 certification and Cleanroom Class 1000 certification during this report period.

  5. Advanced ramjet concepts program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leingang, J. L.

    1992-01-01

    Uniquely advantageous features, on both the performance and weight sides of the ledger, can be achieved through synergistic design integration of airbreathing and rocket technologies in the development of advanced orbital space transport propulsion systems of the combined cycle type. In the context of well understood advanced airbreathing and liquid rocket propulsion principles and practices, this precept of synergism is advanced mainly through six rather specific examples. These range from the detailed component level to the overall vehicle system level as follows: using jet compression; achieving a high area ratio rocket nozzle; ameliorating gas generator cycle rocket system deficiencies; using the in-duct special rocket thrust chamber assembly as the principal scramjet fuel injection operation; using the unstowed, covered fan as a duct closure for effecting high area ratio rocket mode operation; and creating a unique airbreathing rocket system via the onboard, cryogenic hydrogen induced air liquefaction process.

  6. Advances in diagnostic radiology.

    PubMed

    Runge, Val M

    2010-12-01

    Recent advances in diagnostic radiology are discussed on the basis of current publications in Investigative Radiology. Publications in the journal during 2009 and 2010 are reviewed, evaluating developments by modality and anatomic region. Technological advances continue to play a major role in the evolution and clinical practice of diagnostic radiology, and as such constitute a major publication focus. In the past 2 years, this includes advances in both magnetic resonance and computed tomography (in particular, the advent of dual energy computed tomography). An additional major focus of publications concerns contrast media, and in particular continuing research involving nephrogenic systemic fibrosis, its etiology, and differentiation of the gadolinium chelates on the basis of in vivo stability.

  7. Advanced rocket propulsion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Obrien, Charles J.

    1993-01-01

    Existing NASA research contracts are supporting development of advanced reinforced polymer and metal matrix composites for use in liquid rocket engines of the future. Advanced rocket propulsion concepts, such as modular platelet engines, dual-fuel dual-expander engines, and variable mixture ratio engines, require advanced materials and structures to reduce overall vehicle weight as well as address specific propulsion system problems related to elevated operating temperatures, new engine components, and unique operating processes. High performance propulsion systems with improved manufacturability and maintainability are needed for single stage to orbit vehicles and other high performance mission applications. One way to satisfy these needs is to develop a small engine which can be clustered in modules to provide required levels of total thrust. This approach should reduce development schedule and cost requirements by lowering hardware lead times and permitting the use of existing test facilities. Modular engines should also reduce operational costs associated with maintenance and parts inventories.

  8. Advanced Hydrogen Turbine Development

    SciTech Connect

    Marra, John

    2015-09-30

    Under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratories, Siemens has completed the Advanced Hydrogen Turbine Development Program to develop an advanced gas turbine for incorporation into future coal-based Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plants. All the scheduled DOE Milestones were completed and significant technical progress was made in the development of new technologies and concepts. Advanced computer simulations and modeling, as well as subscale, full scale laboratory, rig and engine testing were utilized to evaluate and select concepts for further development. Program Requirements of: A 3 to 5 percentage point improvement in overall plant combined cycle efficiency when compared to the reference baseline plant; 20 to 30 percent reduction in overall plant capital cost when compared to the reference baseline plant; and NOx emissions of 2 PPM out of the stack. were all met. The program was completed on schedule and within the allotted budget

  9. Ocean color estimation by Himawari-8/AHI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, Hiroshi

    2016-05-01

    The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) geostational meteorological satellite, Himawari-8, carrying Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) has been in regular operation since July 7, 2015. Before the AHI, geostational meteorological sensors hardly observed ocean color due to only one broad band in visible wavelengths and relatively large radiometric noise. However, AHI has six spectral bands from visible to shortwave infrared wavelengths (470 nm, 510 nm, 640 nm, 856 nm, 1610 nm, and 2257 nm) in addition to ten thermal infrared bands, and their radiometric noise can be reduced by temporal average since AHI observes the full disk by every 10 minutes. This study investigates the possibility of ocean color estimation (remote sensing reflectance, Rrs, and chlorophyll-a concentration, Chla) from AHI observations. The estimation sensitivity was tested using in-situ data, a simple in-water optical model, and the spectral response of AHI bands. We found the error characteristics and limitation of the estimation by AHI as follows. Chla can be estimated by the traditional scheme, blue (470 nm) green (510 nm) ratio in Chla <3 mg/m3. The estimation in Chla > 5 mg/m3 can be improved by using the green (510 nm) red (640 nm) bands. The random noise can be reduced, by averaging original 10-minute images over an hour. Good estimates are obtained in the summer hemisphere; however, retrieved imagery becomes noisy in the mid and high latitudes (e.g., > 35°) of winter hemisphere due to a long path of the solar light.

  10. Advanced fuel chemistry for advanced engines.

    SciTech Connect

    Taatjes, Craig A.; Jusinski, Leonard E.; Zador, Judit; Fernandes, Ravi X.; Miller, James A.

    2009-09-01

    Autoignition chemistry is central to predictive modeling of many advanced engine designs that combine high efficiency and low inherent pollutant emissions. This chemistry, and especially its pressure dependence, is poorly known for fuels derived from heavy petroleum and for biofuels, both of which are becoming increasingly prominent in the nation's fuel stream. We have investigated the pressure dependence of key ignition reactions for a series of molecules representative of non-traditional and alternative fuels. These investigations combined experimental characterization of hydroxyl radical production in well-controlled photolytically initiated oxidation and a hybrid modeling strategy that linked detailed quantum chemistry and computational kinetics of critical reactions with rate-equation models of the global chemical system. Comprehensive mechanisms for autoignition generally ignore the pressure dependence of branching fractions in the important alkyl + O{sub 2} reaction systems; however we have demonstrated that pressure-dependent 'formally direct' pathways persist at in-cylinder pressures.

  11. Advanced solar dynamic technology program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Calogeras, James

    1990-01-01

    Viewgraphs and discussion on Advanced Solar Dynamic Technology Program are presented. Topics covered include: advanced solar dynamic technology program; advanced concentrators; advanced heat receivers; power conversion systems; dished all metal honeycomb sandwich panels; Stirling cavity heat pipe receiver; Brayton solar receiver; and thermal energy storage technology.

  12. Econometric analysis to evaluate the effect of community-based health insurance on reducing informal self-care in Burkina Faso

    PubMed Central

    Robyn, Paul Jacob; Hill, Allan; Liu, Yuanli; Souares, Aurélia; Savadogo, Germain; Sié, Ali; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2012-01-01

    Objective This study examines the role of community-based health insurance (CBHI) in influencing health-seeking behaviour in Burkina Faso, West Africa. Community-based health insurance was introduced in Nouna district, Burkina Faso, in 2004 with the goal to improve access to contracted providers based at primary- and secondary-level facilities. The paper specifically examines the effect of CBHI enrolment on reducing the prevalence of seeking modern and traditional methods of self-treatment as the first choice in care among the insured population. Methods Three stages of analysis were adopted to measure this effect. First, propensity score matching was used to minimize the observed baseline differences between the insured and uninsured populations. Second, through matching the average treatment effect on the treated, the effect of insurance enrolment on health-seeking behaviour was estimated. Finally, multinomial logistic regression was applied to model demand for available health care options, including no treatment, traditional self-treatment, modern self-treatment, traditional healers and facility-based care. Results For the first choice in care sought, there was no significant difference in the prevalence of self-treatment among the insured and uninsured populations, reaching over 55% for each group. When comparing the alternative option of no treatment, CBHI played no significant role in reducing the demand for self-care (either traditional or modern) or utilization of traditional healers, while it did significantly increase consumption of facility-based care. The average treatment effect on the treated was insignificant for traditional self-care, modern self-care and traditional healer, but was significant with a positive effect for use of facility care. Discussion While CBHI does have a positive impact on facility care utilization, its effect on reducing the prevalence of self-care is limited. The policy recommendations for improving the CBHI scheme

  13. Advancing cardiovascular tissue engineering

    PubMed Central

    Truskey, George A.

    2016-01-01

    Cardiovascular tissue engineering offers the promise of biologically based repair of injured and damaged blood vessels, valves, and cardiac tissue. Major advances in cardiovascular tissue engineering over the past few years involve improved methods to promote the establishment and differentiation of induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs), scaffolds from decellularized tissue that may produce more highly differentiated tissues and advance clinical translation, improved methods to promote vascularization, and novel in vitro microphysiological systems to model normal and diseased tissue function. iPSC technology holds great promise, but robust methods are needed to further promote differentiation. Differentiation can be further enhanced with chemical, electrical, or mechanical stimuli. PMID:27303643

  14. Advances in periodontology.

    PubMed

    Tonetti, M S

    2000-10-01

    Advances in periodontal science and practice over the last decade have radically changed the understanding of periodontal diseases and have opened new, exciting prospects for both medical and surgical therapy of periodontal diseases. Establishment of the aetiology and pathogenesis of periodontitis, understanding of the unique genetic and environmental susceptibility profile of affected subjects, and recognition of the systemic implications of periodontal infections are the key research findings. The use of randomised, controlled, clinical trials has allowed the development of evidence-based periodontology. Adjunctive antimicrobial therapy, regenerative periodontal surgery, periodontal plastic surgery, bone regeneration surgery in the light of implant treatment, and advanced soft tissue management at implant sites have radically changed practice.

  15. Advancing cytometry for immunology.

    PubMed

    Cossarizza, Andrea; Nolan, John; Radbruch, Andreas; Tárnok, Attila

    2012-12-01

    Cytometry is a key technology for immunology. It allows researchers to scrutinize the cells of the immune system in molecular detail, and to assess phenotype and function at the level of individual cells, no matter how rare these cells may be. The International Society for the Advancement of Cytometry, ISAC, by way of its meetings, online resources and publications (e.g. Cytometry Part A and Current Protocols in Cytometry, which are all published by Wiley) track the ever advancing developments regarding cytometry instrumentation and reagents, and the analysis of complex data sets. In June this year in Leipzig, Germany, ISAC held its annual conference "CYTO 2012", a marketplace of innovation in cytometry.

  16. Advanced sensors technology survey

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, Tommy G.; Costello, David J.; Davis, Jerry G.; Horst, Richard L.; Lessard, Charles S.; Peel, H. Herbert; Tolliver, Robert

    1992-01-01

    This project assesses the state-of-the-art in advanced or 'smart' sensors technology for NASA Life Sciences research applications with an emphasis on those sensors with potential applications on the space station freedom (SSF). The objectives are: (1) to conduct literature reviews on relevant advanced sensor technology; (2) to interview various scientists and engineers in industry, academia, and government who are knowledgeable on this topic; (3) to provide viewpoints and opinions regarding the potential applications of this technology on the SSF; and (4) to provide summary charts of relevant technologies and centers where these technologies are being developed.

  17. Advanced concepts for acceleration

    SciTech Connect

    Keefe, D.

    1986-07-01

    Selected examples of advanced accelerator concepts are reviewed. Such plasma accelerators as plasma beat wave accelerator, plasma wake field accelerator, and plasma grating accelerator are discussed particularly as examples of concepts for accelerating relativistic electrons or positrons. Also covered are the pulsed electron-beam, pulsed laser accelerator, inverse Cherenkov accelerator, inverse free-electron laser, switched radial-line accelerators, and two-beam accelerator. Advanced concepts for ion acceleration discussed include the electron ring accelerator, excitation of waves on intense electron beams, and two-wave combinations. (LEW)

  18. Advanced engine study program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Masters, A. I.; Galler, D. E.; Denman, T. F.; Shied, R. A.; Black, J. R.; Fierstein, A. R.; Clark, G. L.; Branstrom, B. R.

    1993-01-01

    A design and analysis study was conducted to provide advanced engine descriptions and parametric data for space transfer vehicles. The study was based on an advanced oxygen/hydrogen engine in the 7,500 to 50,000 lbf thrust range. Emphasis was placed on defining requirements for high-performance engines capable of achieving reliable and versatile operation in a space environment. Four variations on the expander cycle were compared, and the advantages and disadvantages of each were assessed. Parametric weight, envelope, and performance data were generated over a range of 7,500 to 50,000 lb thrust and a wide range of chamber pressure and nozzle expansion ratio.

  19. Advanced Solar Power Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atkinson, J. H.; Hobgood, J. M.

    1984-01-01

    The Advanced Solar Power System (ASPS) concentrator uses a technically sophisticated design and extensive tooling to produce very efficient (80 to 90%) and versatile energy supply equipment which is inexpensive to manufacture and requires little maintenance. The advanced optical design has two 10th order, generalized aspheric surfaces in a Cassegrainian configuration which gives outstanding performance and is relatively insensitive to temperature changes and wind loading. Manufacturing tolerances also have been achieved. The key to the ASPS is the direct absorption of concentrated sunlight in the working fluid by radiative transfers in a black body cavity. The basic ASPS design concepts, efficiency, optical system, and tracking and focusing controls are described.

  20. Advanced Monitoring systems initiative

    SciTech Connect

    R.J. Venedam; E.O. Hohman; C.F. Lohrstorfer; S.J. Weeks; J.B. Jones; W.J. Haas

    2004-09-30

    The Advanced Monitoring Systems Initiative (AMSI) actively searches for promising technologies and aggressively moves them from the research bench into DOE/NNSA end-user applications. There is a large unfulfilled need for an active element that reaches out to identify and recruit emerging sensor technologies into the test and evaluation function. Sensor research is ubiquitous, with the seeds of many novel concepts originating in the university systems, but at present these novel concepts do not move quickly and efficiently into real test environments. AMSI is a widely recognized, self-sustaining ''business'' accelerating the selection, development, testing, evaluation, and deployment of advanced monitoring systems and components.

  1. Advanced flight software reconfiguraton

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Porcher, Bryan

    1991-01-01

    Information is given in viewgraph form on advanced flight software reconfiguration. Reconfiguration is defined as identifying mission and configuration specific requirements, controlling mission and configuration specific data, binding this information to the flight software code to perform specific missions, and the release and distribution of the flight software. The objectives are to develop, demonstrate, and validate advanced software reconfiguration tools and techniques; to demonstrate reconfiguration approaches on Space Station Freedom (SSF) onboard systems displays; and to interactively test onboard systems displays, flight software, and flight data.

  2. MR Neurography: Advances

    PubMed Central

    Chhabra, Avneesh; Zhao, Lianxin; Carrino, John A.; Trueblood, Eo; Koceski, Saso; Shteriev, Filip; Lenkinski, Lionel; Sinclair, Christopher D. J.; Andreisek, Gustav

    2013-01-01

    High resolution and high field magnetic resonance neurography (MR neurography, MRN) is shown to have excellent anatomic capability. There have been considerable advances in the technology in the last few years leading to various feasibility studies using different structural and functional imaging approaches in both clinical and research settings. This paper is intended to be a useful seminar for readers who want to gain knowledge of the advancements in the MRN pulse sequences currently used in clinical practice as well as learn about the other techniques on the horizon aimed at better depiction of nerve anatomy, pathology, and potential noninvasive evaluation of nerve degeneration or regeneration. PMID:23589774

  3. Advanced Neuroimaging of Tinnitus.

    PubMed

    Raghavan, Prashant; Steven, Andrew; Rath, Tanya; Gandhi, Dheeraj

    2016-05-01

    Although tinnitus may originate in damage to the peripheral auditory apparatus, its perception and distressing symptomatology are consequences of alterations to auditory, sensory, and limbic neural networks. This has been described in several studies, some using advanced structural MR imaging techniques such as diffusion tensor imaging. An understanding of these complex changes could enable development of targeted treatment. New MR imaging techniques enabling detailed depiction of the labyrinth may be useful when diagnosis of Meniere disease is equivocal. Advances in computed tomography and MR imaging have enabled noninvasive diagnosis of dural arteriovenous fistulae.

  4. Advanced Containment System

    DOEpatents

    Kostelnik, Kevin M.; Kawamura, Hideki; Richardson, John G.; Noda, Masaru

    2005-02-08

    An advanced containment system for containing buried waste and associated leachate. The advanced containment system comprises a plurality of casing sections with each casing section interlocked to an adjacent casing section. Each casing section includes a complementary interlocking structure that interlocks with the complementary interlocking structure on an adjacent casing section. A barrier filler substantially fills the casing sections and may substantially fill the spaces of the complementary interlocking structure to form a substantially impermeable barrier. Some of the casing sections may include sensors so that the casing sections and the zone of interest may be remotely monitored after the casing sections are emplaced in the ground.

  5. Advanced Imaging Tracker

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-06-01

    document requires that it 1e returncd: ADVANCED IMACINGC TRACKER Dr . L. E. Schmutz Contractor: Adaptive Optics Associates, Inc. Contt-ict Number: F30602-80...Code Number: IE20 Period of Worl: Covered: jun 80 - D’:c 81 Principal Investigator: Dr . Larry Schmut~z Phone: 617 547-2786 Project Engineer: Captaia...yaJPODCVR~ ADVANCED IMAGING TRACKER 10Jun 80 - ’,’ Dec 81 𔄃 PiRFORMiNO7 01G. REPORT NUMBER 7 ATII~(. ONTPA OR GRANTY NUMDERf.) Dr . 1L. E. Schiiut

  6. Sub-second State Estimation Implementation and its Evaluation with Real Data

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Yousu; Rice, Mark J.; Glaesemann, Kurt R.; Huang, Zhenyu

    2015-07-31

    This paper describes the performance of a parallel state estimation (PSE) tool implemented using advanced computing techniques. The developed code is able to solve state estimation of large-size, practical power systems within one second. Benchmark tests against a commercial tool shows that the computational speed is 10 times faster. Benefits brought by the sub-second state estimation are also discussed.

  7. Estimating airline operating costs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maddalon, D. V.

    1978-01-01

    A review was made of the factors affecting commercial aircraft operating and delay costs. From this work, an airline operating cost model was developed which includes a method for estimating the labor and material costs of individual airframe maintenance systems. The model, similar in some respects to the standard Air Transport Association of America (ATA) Direct Operating Cost Model, permits estimates of aircraft-related costs not now included in the standard ATA model (e.g., aircraft service, landing fees, flight attendants, and control fees). A study of the cost of aircraft delay was also made and a method for estimating the cost of certain types of airline delay is described.

  8. Estimating cell populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    White, B. S.; Castleman, K. R.

    1981-01-01

    An important step in the diagnosis of a cervical cytology specimen is estimating the proportions of the various cell types present. This is usually done with a cell classifier, the error rates of which can be expressed as a confusion matrix. We show how to use the confusion matrix to obtain an unbiased estimate of the desired proportions. We show that the mean square error of this estimate depends on a 'befuddlement matrix' derived from the confusion matrix, and how this, in turn, leads to a figure of merit for cell classifiers. Finally, we work out the two-class problem in detail and present examples to illustrate the theory.

  9. Advanced cogeneration research study. Survey of cogeneration potential

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Slonski, M. L.

    1983-01-01

    Fifty-five facilities that consumed substantial amounts of electricity, natural gas, or fuel oil were surveyed by telephone in 1983. The primary objective of the survey was to estimate the potential electricity that could be generated in the SCE service territory using cogeneration technology. An estimated 3667 MW sub e could potentially be generated using cogenerated technology. Of this total, current technology could provide 2569 MW sub p and advanced technology could provide 1098 MW sub e. Approximately 1611 MW sub t was considered not feasible to produce electricity with either current or advanced cogeneration technology.

  10. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Status Report

    SciTech Connect

    Harrison, Thomas J.

    2014-10-01

    This report describes the data collection work performed for an advanced small modular reactor (AdvSMR) economics analysis activity at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The methodology development and analytical results are described in separate, stand-alone documents as listed in the references. The economics analysis effort for the AdvSMR program combines the technical and fuel cycle aspects of advanced (non-light water reactor [LWR]) reactors with the market and production aspects of SMRs. This requires the collection, analysis, and synthesis of multiple unrelated and potentially high-uncertainty data sets from a wide range of data sources. Further, the nature of both economic and nuclear technology analysis requires at least a minor attempt at prediction and prognostication, and the far-term horizon for deployment of advanced nuclear systems introduces more uncertainty. Energy market uncertainty, especially the electricity market, is the result of the integration of commodity prices, demand fluctuation, and generation competition, as easily seen in deregulated markets. Depending on current or projected values for any of these factors, the economic attractiveness of any power plant construction project can change yearly or quarterly. For long-lead construction projects such as nuclear power plants, this uncertainty generates an implied and inherent risk for potential nuclear power plant owners and operators. The uncertainty in nuclear reactor and fuel cycle costs is in some respects better understood and quantified than the energy market uncertainty. The LWR-based fuel cycle has a long commercial history to use as its basis for cost estimation, and the current activities in LWR construction provide a reliable baseline for estimates for similar efforts. However, for advanced systems, the estimates and their associated uncertainties are based on forward-looking assumptions for performance after the system has been built and has achieved commercial operation

  11. A rotor technology assessment of the advancing blade concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pleasants, W. A.

    1983-01-01

    A rotor technology assessment of the Advancing Blade Concept (ABC) was conducted in support of a preliminary design study. The analytical methodology modifications and inputs, the correlation, and the results of the assessment are documented. The primary emphasis was on the high-speed forward flight performance of the rotor. The correlation data base included both the wind tunnel and the flight test results. An advanced ABC rotor design was examined; the suitability of the ABC for a particular mission was not considered. The objective of this technology assessment was to provide estimates of the performance potential of an advanced ABC rotor designed for high speed forward flight.

  12. Advanced Distribution Management System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avazov, Artur R.; Sobinova, Liubov A.

    2016-02-01

    This article describes the advisability of using advanced distribution management systems in the electricity distribution networks area and considers premises of implementing ADMS within the Smart Grid era. Also, it gives the big picture of ADMS and discusses the ADMS advantages and functionalities.

  13. Rewriting in Advanced Composition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stone, William B.

    A college English instructor made an informal comparison of rewriting habits of students in a freshman composition course and two advanced composition courses. Notes kept on student rewriting focused on this central question: given peer and instructor response to their papers and a choice as to what and how to rewrite, what will students decide to…

  14. Advanced Learning Environments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hubal, Robert C.; Helms, Robert F.; Triplett, Suzanne E.

    Leading-edge technologies, integrated with emerging educational methodologies, make the Advanced Learning Environment (ALE) model cost effective and efficient for learning. The ALE integrates virtual reality and other enabling technologies such as natural language processing, animation, video, courseware, sound, projection, CD-ROM, and distance…

  15. Advanced Chemical Propulsion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexander, Leslie, Jr.

    2006-01-01

    Advanced Chemical Propulsion (ACP) provides near-term incremental improvements in propulsion system performance and/or cost. It is an evolutionary approach to technology development that produces useful products along the way to meet increasingly more demanding mission requirements while focusing on improving payload mass fraction to yield greater science capability. Current activities are focused on two areas: chemical propulsion component, subsystem, and manufacturing technologies that offer measurable system level benefits; and the evaluation of high-energy storable propellants with enhanced performance for in-space application. To prioritize candidate propulsion technology alternatives, a variety of propulsion/mission analyses and trades have been conducted for SMD missions to yield sufficient data for investment planning. They include: the Advanced Chemical Propulsion Assessment; an Advanced Chemical Propulsion System Model; a LOx-LH2 small pumps conceptual design; a space storables propellant study; a spacecraft cryogenic propulsion study; an advanced pressurization and mixture ratio control study; and a pump-fed vs. pressure-fed study.

  16. Advanced Gas Turbine (AGT)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1983-01-01

    The development and progress of the Advanced Gas Turbine engine program is examined. An analysis of the role of ceramics in the design and major engine components is included. Projected fuel economy, emissions and performance standards, and versatility in fuel use are also discussed.

  17. Cartoons as Advance Organizers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kovalik, Cindy L.; Williams, Matthew A.

    2011-01-01

    This exploratory study investigated student reaction to the use of cartoons as advance organizers for online discussions in an online course. A convenience sample of 15 students participated in the study by contributing cartoons, participating in online discussions, and completing a survey. Overall, survey results indicated student reaction to the…

  18. Advanced turbine systems program

    SciTech Connect

    Wilkes, C.; Mukavetz, D.W.; Knickerbocker, T.K.; Ali, S.A.

    1992-12-31

    In accordance with the goals of the DOE program, improvements in the gas turbine are the primary focus of Allison activity during Phase I. To this end Allison conducted a survey of potentially applicable gas turbine cycles and selected the advanced combined cycle as reference system. Extensive analysis of two versions of the advanced combined cycle was performed against the requirement for a 60% thermal efficiency (LHV) utility-sized, natural gas fired system. This analysis resulted in technology requirements for this system. Additional analysis determined emissions potential for the system, established a coal-fueled derivative system and a commercialization plan. This report deals with the technical requirements for a system that meets the thermal efficiency goal. Allison initially investigated four basic thermodynamic cycles: Humid air turbine, intercalate-recuperated systems, advanced combined cycle, chemically recuperated cycle. Our survey and cycle analysis indicated that au had the potential of reaching 60% thermal efficiency. We also concluded that engine hot section technology would be a critical technology regardless of which cycle was chosen. Based on this result Allison chose to concentrate on the advanced combined cycle. This cycle is well known and understood by the utility turbine user community and is therefore likely to be acceptable to users.

  19. Advanced turbine systems program

    SciTech Connect

    Wilkes, C.; Mukavetz, D.W.; Knickerbocker, T.K.; Ali, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    In accordance with the goals of the DOE program, improvements in the gas turbine are the primary focus of Allison activity during Phase I. To this end Allison conducted a survey of potentially applicable gas turbine cycles and selected the advanced combined cycle as reference system. Extensive analysis of two versions of the advanced combined cycle was performed against the requirement for a 60% thermal efficiency (LHV) utility-sized, natural gas fired system. This analysis resulted in technology requirements for this system. Additional analysis determined emissions potential for the system, established a coal-fueled derivative system and a commercialization plan. This report deals with the technical requirements for a system that meets the thermal efficiency goal. Allison initially investigated four basic thermodynamic cycles: Humid air turbine, intercalate-recuperated systems, advanced combined cycle, chemically recuperated cycle. Our survey and cycle analysis indicated that au had the potential of reaching 60% thermal efficiency. We also concluded that engine hot section technology would be a critical technology regardless of which cycle was chosen. Based on this result Allison chose to concentrate on the advanced combined cycle. This cycle is well known and understood by the utility turbine user community and is therefore likely to be acceptable to users.

  20. Oklahoma's Advanced School Funding.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Green, Gary

    A new means of funding school operations known as advanced school funding allows Oklahoma schools financing during the temporary cash shortfalls. The program consists of the Oklahoma Development Authority issuing revenue bonds purchased by E. F. Hutton and Company, Inc., which then sells the tax free bonds to investors throughout the country. A…

  1. Advanced Polymer Network Structures

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-02-01

    13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Polymer networks and gels are important classes of materials for defense applications . In an effort to......it is no longer needed. Do not return it to the originator. ARL-TR-7612 ● FEB 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Advanced Polymer

  2. ISE advanced technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox, Barry R.

    1991-01-01

    Information on Space Station Freedom scheduling problems and techniques are presented in viewgraph form. Topics covered include automated scheduling systems, user interface standards, benefits of interactive scheduling systems, incremental scheduling, software engineering, computer graphics interface, distributed resource management, and advanced applications.

  3. Advances in Distance Learning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    1999

    This document contains three symposium papers on advances in distance learning. "The Adoption of Computer Technology and Telecommunications: A Case Study" (Larry M. Dooley, Teri Metcalf, Ann Martinez) reports on a study of the possible applications of two theoretical models (Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations model and the Concerns-Based…

  4. Advances in fetal surgery

    PubMed Central

    Pedreira, Denise Araujo Lapa

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses the main advances in fetal surgical therapy aiming to inform health care professionals about the state-of-the-art techniques and future challenges in this field. We discuss the necessary steps of technical evolution from the initial open fetal surgery approach until the development of minimally invasive techniques of fetal endoscopic surgery (fetoscopy). PMID:27074241

  5. Technological Advances in Joining

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-08-01

    time required for hardfacing was reduced 50 percent and material costs were reduced as well. Microplasma-Arc Welding. Advances in equipment development...548-555 (1962). (14) Anonymous, "Plasma Arc Saves Hardfacing Time and Dollars", Welding Journal, 59 (2), 51-52 (1980). (15) Liebisch, M

  6. Advances in Qualitative Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    1998

    This document contains five papers from a symposium on advances in qualitative research in human resource development (HRD). "Case Study and Its Virtuoso Possibilities" (Verna J. Willis) asserts that the case study method is particularly well suited for research in HRD because its creative and investigative possibilities have not yet…

  7. Advanced fossil energy utilization

    SciTech Connect

    Shekhawat, D.; Berry, D.; Spivey, J.; Pennline, H.; Granite, E.

    2010-01-01

    This special issue of Fuel is a selection of papers presented at the symposium ‘Advanced Fossil Energy Utilization’ co-sponsored by the Fuels and Petrochemicals Division and Research and New Technology Committee in the 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE) Spring National Meeting Tampa, FL, on April 26–30, 2009.

  8. Advanced Concept Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chaput, Armand; Johns, Zachary; Hodges, Todd; Selfridge, Justin; Bevirt, Joeben; Ahuja, Vivek

    2015-01-01

    Advanced Concepts Modeling software validation, analysis, and design. This was a National Institute of Aerospace contract with a lot of pieces. Efforts ranged from software development and validation for structures and aerodynamics, through flight control development, and aeropropulsive analysis, to UAV piloting services.

  9. Advanced proteomic liquid chromatography

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, Fang; Smith, Richard D.; Shen, Yufeng

    2012-10-26

    Liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry is the predominant platform used to analyze proteomics samples consisting of large numbers of proteins and their proteolytic products (e.g., truncated polypeptides) and spanning a wide range of relative concentrations. This review provides an overview of advanced capillary liquid chromatography techniques and methodologies that greatly improve separation resolving power and proteomics analysis coverage, sensitivity, and throughput.

  10. Advances in Planetary Geology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woronow, A. (Editor)

    1982-01-01

    Advances in Planetary Geology is a new series intended to serve the planetary geology community with a form for quick and thorough communications. There are no set lists of acceptable topics or formats, and submitted manuscripts will not undergo a formal review. All submissions should be in a camera ready form, preferably spaced, and submitted to the editor.

  11. Advanced Test Reactor Tour

    SciTech Connect

    Miley, Don

    2011-01-01

    The Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory is the foremost nuclear materials test reactor in the world. This virtual tour describes the reactor, how experiments are conducted, and how spent nuclear fuel is handled and stored. For more information about INL research, visit http://www.facebook.com/idahonationallaboratory.

  12. Advanced Cardiac Life Support.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirkwood Community Coll., Cedar Rapids, IA.

    This document contains materials for an advanced college course in cardiac life support developed for the State of Iowa. The course syllabus lists the course title, hours, number, description, prerequisites, learning activities, instructional units, required text, six references, evaluation criteria, course objectives by units, course…

  13. Advancing beyond AP Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammond, Bruce G.

    2009-01-01

    A quiet revolution is picking up steam in the nation's private secondary schools, with broad implications for college admissions and for teaching and learning on both sides of the transition from high school to college. About 50 of the nation's leading college-preparatory schools have opted out of the College Board's Advanced Placement (AP)…

  14. Advanced Plant Habitat (APH)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richards, Stephanie E. (Compiler); Levine, Howard G.; Reed, David W.

    2016-01-01

    The Advanced Plant Habitat (APH) hardware will be a large growth volume plant habitat, capable of hosting multigenerational studies, in which environmental variables (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, carbon dioxide level light intensity and spectral quality) can be tracked and controlled in support of whole plant physiological testing and Bio-regenerative Life Support System investigations.

  15. Advanced Civilian Aeronautical Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bushnell, Dennis M.

    1996-01-01

    Paper discusses alternatives to currently deployed systems which could provide revolutionary improvements in metrics applicable to civilian aeronautics. Specific missions addressed include subsonic transports, supersonic transports and personal aircraft. These alternative systems and concepts are enabled by recent and envisaged advancements in electronics, communications, computing and Designer Fluid Mechanics in conjunction with a design approach employing extensive synergistic interactions between propulsion, aerodynamics and structures.

  16. Advanced Test Reactor Tour

    ScienceCinema

    Miley, Don

    2016-07-12

    The Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory is the foremost nuclear materials test reactor in the world. This virtual tour describes the reactor, how experiments are conducted, and how spent nuclear fuel is handled and stored. For more information about INL research, visit http://www.facebook.com/idahonationallaboratory.

  17. Advancing Student Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walberg, Herbert J.

    2010-01-01

    For the last half century, higher spending and many modern reforms have failed to raise the achievement of students in the United States to the levels of other economically advanced countries. A possible explanation, says Herbert Walberg, is that much current education theory is ill informed about scientific psychology, often drawing on fads and…

  18. Advanced geometries and regimes

    SciTech Connect

    Bulanov, S. S.; Bulanov, S. V.; Turchetti, G.; Limpouch, J.; Klimo, O.; Psikal, J.; Margarone, D.; Korn, G.

    2013-07-26

    We review and discuss different schemes of laser ion acceleration as well as advanced target geometries in connection with the development of the laser-driven proton source for hadron therapy of oncological diseases, which is a part of the ELIMED project.

  19. Advanced Heart Failure

    MedlinePlus

    ... Artery Disease Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Advanced Heart Failure Updated:Feb 9,2017 When heart failure (HF) ... content was last reviewed on 04/06/2015. Heart Failure • Home • About Heart Failure • Causes and Risks for ...

  20. Infant Development: Recent Advances.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bremner, Gavin, Ed.; Slater, Alan, Ed.; Butterworth, George, Ed.

    Noting that the last 30 years have seen enormous increases in the understanding of infancy, this book examines the current state of knowledge regarding infant development. The book's contents stem from meetings of the British Infancy Research Group. Although the book was intended for advanced undergraduates, it would also be useful for advanced…

  1. Advancement's Sticky Issues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Patricia

    2011-01-01

    The author did not expect to be surprised or disturbed by the data from the latest Council for Advancement and Support of Education (CASE) salary survey; however, she was. CASE has been conducting the survey since 1982, so she assumed the findings would mirror her own salary history and those of her peers. While she suspected that older women…

  2. Estimating Radiogenic Cancer Risks

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document presents a revised methodology for EPA's estimation of cancer risks due to low-LET radiation exposures developed in light of information that has become available, especially new information on the Japanese atomic bomb survivors.

  3. Estimation of food consumption

    SciTech Connect

    Callaway, J.M. Jr.

    1992-04-01

    The research reported in this document was conducted as a part of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. The objective of the HEDR Project is to estimate the radiation doses that people could have received from operations at the Hanford Site. Information required to estimate these doses includes estimates of the amounts of potentially contaminated foods that individuals in the region consumed during the study period. In that general framework, the objective of the Food Consumption Task was to develop a capability to provide information about the parameters of the distribution(s) of daily food consumption for representative groups in the population for selected years during the study period. This report describes the methods and data used to estimate food consumption and presents the results developed for Phase I of the HEDR Project.

  4. Supernova frequency estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Tsvetkov, D.Y.

    1983-01-01

    Estimates of the frequency of type I and II supernovae occurring in galaxies of different types are derived from observational material acquired by the supernova patrol of the Shternberg Astronomical Institute.

  5. Sub-Second Parallel State Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Yousu; Rice, Mark J.; Glaesemann, Kurt R.; Wang, Shaobu; Huang, Zhenyu

    2014-10-31

    This report describes the performance of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) sub-second parallel state estimation (PSE) tool using the utility data from the Bonneville Power Administrative (BPA) and discusses the benefits of the fast computational speed for power system applications. The test data were provided by BPA. They are two-days’ worth of hourly snapshots that include power system data and measurement sets in a commercial tool format. These data are extracted out from the commercial tool box and fed into the PSE tool. With the help of advanced solvers, the PSE tool is able to solve each BPA hourly state estimation problem within one second, which is more than 10 times faster than today’s commercial tool. This improved computational performance can help increase the reliability value of state estimation in many aspects: (1) the shorter the time required for execution of state estimation, the more time remains for operators to take appropriate actions, and/or to apply automatic or manual corrective control actions. This increases the chances of arresting or mitigating the impact of cascading failures; (2) the SE can be executed multiple times within time allowance. Therefore, the robustness of SE can be enhanced by repeating the execution of the SE with adaptive adjustments, including removing bad data and/or adjusting different initial conditions to compute a better estimate within the same time as a traditional state estimator’s single estimate. There are other benefits with the sub-second SE, such as that the PSE results can potentially be used in local and/or wide-area automatic corrective control actions that are currently dependent on raw measurements to minimize the impact of bad measurements, and provides opportunities to enhance the power grid reliability and efficiency. PSE also can enable other advanced tools that rely on SE outputs and could be used to further improve operators’ actions and automated controls to mitigate effects

  6. Labour analgesia: Recent advances.

    PubMed

    Pandya, Sunil T

    2010-09-01

    Advances in the field of labour analgesia have tread a long journey from the days of ether and chloroform in 1847 to the present day practice of comprehensive programme of labour pain management using evidence-based medicine. Newer advances include introduction of newer techniques like combined spinal epidurals, low-dose epidurals facilitating ambulation, pharmacological advances like introduction of remifentanil for patient-controlled intravenous analgesia, introduction of newer local anaesthetics and adjuvants like ropivacaine, levobupivacaine, sufentanil, clonidine and neostigmine, use of inhalational agents like sevoflourane for patient-controlled inhalational analgesia using special vaporizers, all have revolutionized the practice of pain management in labouring parturients. Technological advances like use of ultrasound to localize epidural space in difficult cases minimizes failed epidurals and introduction of novel drug delivery modalities like patient-controlled epidural analgesia (PCEA) pumps and computer-integrated drug delivery pumps have improved the overall maternal satisfaction rate and have enabled us to customize a suitable analgesic regimen for each parturient. Recent randomized controlled trials and Cochrane studies have concluded that the association of epidurals with increased caesarean section and long-term backache remains only a myth. Studies have also shown that the newer, low-dose regimes do not have a statistically significant impact on the duration of labour and breast feeding and also that these reduce the instrumental delivery rates thus improving maternal and foetal safety. Advances in medical technology like use of ultrasound for localizing epidural space have helped the clinicians to minimize the failure rates, and many novel drug delivery modalities like PCEA and computer-integrated PCEA have contributed to the overall maternal satisfaction and safety.

  7. Early Training Estimation System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-08-01

    are needed. First, by developing earlier and more accurate estimates of training requirements, the training planning process can begin earlier, and...this period and these questions require training input data and (2) the early training planning process requires a solid foundation on which to...development of initial design, task, skill, and training estimates? provision of input into training planning and acquisition documents: 2-39 provision

  8. Nonparametric conditional estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Owen, A.B.

    1987-01-01

    Many nonparametric regression techniques (such as kernels, nearest neighbors, and smoothing splines) estimate the conditional mean of Y given X = chi by a weighted sum of observed Y values, where observations with X values near chi tend to have larger weights. In this report the weights are taken to represent a finite signed measure on the space of Y values. This measure is studied as an estimate of the conditional distribution of Y given X = chi. From estimates of the conditional distribution, estimates of conditional means, standard deviations, quantiles and other statistical functionals may be computed. Chapter 1 illustrates the computation of conditional quantiles and conditional survival probabilities on the Stanford Heart Transplant data. Chapter 2 contains a survey of nonparametric regression methods and introduces statistical metrics and von Mises' method for later use. Chapter 3 proves some consistency results. Chapter 4 provides conditions under which the suitably normalized errors in estimating the conditional distribution of Y have a Brownian limit. Using von Mises' method, asymptotic normality is obtained for nonparametric conditional estimates of compactly differentiable statistical functionals.

  9. Estimating networks with jumps

    PubMed Central

    Kolar, Mladen; Xing, Eric P.

    2013-01-01

    We study the problem of estimating a temporally varying coefficient and varying structure (VCVS) graphical model underlying data collected over a period of time, such as social states of interacting individuals or microarray expression profiles of gene networks, as opposed to i.i.d. data from an invariant model widely considered in current literature of structural estimation. In particular, we consider the scenario in which the model evolves in a piece-wise constant fashion. We propose a procedure that estimates the structure of a graphical model by minimizing the temporally smoothed L1 penalized regression, which allows jointly estimating the partition boundaries of the VCVS model and the coefficient of the sparse precision matrix on each block of the partition. A highly scalable proximal gradient method is proposed to solve the resultant convex optimization problem; and the conditions for sparsistent estimation and the convergence rate of both the partition boundaries and the network structure are established for the first time for such estimators. PMID:25013533

  10. Advanced Space Propulsion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frisbee, Robert H.

    1996-01-01

    This presentation describes a number of advanced space propulsion technologies with the potential for meeting the need for dramatic reductions in the cost of access to space, and the need for new propulsion capabilities to enable bold new space exploration (and, ultimately, space exploitation) missions of the 21st century. For example, current Earth-to-orbit (e.g., low Earth orbit, LEO) launch costs are extremely high (ca. $10,000/kg); a factor 25 reduction (to ca. $400/kg) will be needed to produce the dramatic increases in space activities in both the civilian and government sectors identified in the Commercial Space Transportation Study (CSTS). Similarly, in the area of space exploration, all of the relatively 'easy' missions (e.g., robotic flybys, inner solar system orbiters and landers; and piloted short-duration Lunar missions) have been done. Ambitious missions of the next century (e.g., robotic outer-planet orbiters/probes, landers, rovers, sample returns; and piloted long-duration Lunar and Mars missions) will require major improvements in propulsion capability. In some cases, advanced propulsion can enable a mission by making it faster or more affordable, and in some cases, by directly enabling the mission (e.g., interstellar missions). As a general rule, advanced propulsion systems are attractive because of their low operating costs (e.g., higher specific impulse, ISD) and typically show the most benefit for relatively 'big' missions (i.e., missions with large payloads or AV, or a large overall mission model). In part, this is due to the intrinsic size of the advanced systems as compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) chemical propulsion systems. Also, advanced systems often have a large 'infrastructure' cost, either in the form of initial R&D costs or in facilities hardware costs (e.g., laser or microwave transmission ground stations for beamed energy propulsion). These costs must then be amortized over a large mission to be cost-competitive with a SOTA

  11. DOD's advanced thermionics program an overview

    SciTech Connect

    Drake, T.R.

    1998-07-01

    The Defense Special Weapons Agency (DSWA) manages a congressionally mandated program in advanced thermionics research. Guided by congressional language to advance the state-of-the-art in the US and support the Integrated Solar Upper Stage (ISUS) program, DSWA efforts concentrate on four areas: an electrically testable design of a high-performance, in-core thermionic fuel element (TFE), the ISUS program, a microminiature thermionic converter and several modeling efforts. The DSWA domestic program is augmented by several small contracts with Russian institutes, awarded under the former TOPAZ International Program that the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization transferred to DSWA. The design effort at General Atomics will result in an electrically testable, multi-cell TFE for in-core conversion, involving system design and advanced collector and emitter technologies. For the ISUS program, DSWA funded a portion of the engine ground demonstration, including development of the power management system and the planar diodes. Current efforts supporting ISUS include continued diode testing and developing an advanced planar diode. The MTC program seeks to design a mass producable, close-spaced thermionic converter using integrated circuit technologies. Modeling and analysis at DSWA involves development of the Reactor System Mass with Thermionics estimation model (RSMASS-T), developing a new thermionic theory, and reviewing applications for the MTC technology. The Russian deliverables include several reports and associated hardware that describe many of its state-of-the-art thermionic technologies and processes.

  12. Advanced Gasifier Pilot Plant Concept Definition

    SciTech Connect

    Steve Fusselman; Alan Darby; Fred Widman

    2005-08-31

    This report presents results from definition of a preferred commercial-scale advanced gasifier configuration and concept definition for a gasification pilot plant incorporating those preferred technologies. The preferred commercial gasifier configuration was established based on Cost Of Electricity estimates for an IGCC. Based on the gasifier configuration trade study results, a compact plug flow gasifier, with a dry solids pump, rapid-mix injector, CMC liner insert and partial quench system was selected as the preferred configuration. Preliminary systems analysis results indicate that this configuration could provide cost of product savings for electricity and hydrogen ranging from 15%-20% relative to existing gasifier technologies. This cost of product improvement draws upon the efficiency of the dry feed, rapid mix injector technology, low capital cost compact gasifier, and >99% gasifier availability due to long life injector and gasifier liner, with short replacement time. A pilot plant concept incorporating the technologies associated with the preferred configuration was defined, along with cost and schedule estimates for design, installation, and test operations. It was estimated that a 16,300 kg/day (18 TPD) pilot plant gasifier incorporating the advanced gasification technology and demonstrating 1,000 hours of hot-fire operation could be accomplished over a period of 33 months with a budget of $25.6 M.

  13. Using propensity score matching to estimate an "unbiased effect-size" between women's employment and partner violence in Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Vyas, Seema; Heise, Lori

    2014-11-01

    Estimates of the effect of employment on women's risk of partner violence in cross-sectional studies are subject to potential "self-selection bias." Women's personal choice of whether to pursue employment or not may create fundamental differences between the group of women who are employed and those who are not employed that standard regression methods cannot account for even after adjusting for confounding. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the utility of propensity score matching (PSM), a technique used widely in econometrics, to address this bias in cross-sectional studies. We use PSM to estimate an unbiased effect-size of women's employment on their risk of experiencing partner violence in urban and rural Tanzania using data from the 2010 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Three different measures of women's employment were analyzed: whether they had engaged in any productive work outside of the home in the past year, whether they received payment in cash for this productive work, and whether their employment was stable. Women who worked outside of the home were significantly different from those who did not. In both urban and rural Tanzania, women's risk of violence appears higher among women who worked in the past year than among those who did not, even after using PSM to account for underlying differences in these two groups of women. Being paid in cash reversed this effect in rural areas whereas stability of employment reduced this risk in urban centers. The estimated size of effect varied by type of matching estimator, but the direction of the association remained largely consistent. This study's findings suggest substantial self-selection into employment. PSM methods, by compensating for this bias, appear to be a useful tool for estimating the relationship between women's employment and partner violence in cross-sectional studies.

  14. Application of maximum-likelihood estimation in optical coherence tomography for nanometer-class thickness estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Jinxin; Yuan, Qun; Tankam, Patrice; Clarkson, Eric; Kupinski, Matthew; Hindman, Holly B.; Aquavella, James V.; Rolland, Jannick P.

    2015-03-01

    In biophotonics imaging, one important and quantitative task is layer-thickness estimation. In this study, we investigate the approach of combining optical coherence tomography and a maximum-likelihood (ML) estimator for layer thickness estimation in the context of tear film imaging. The motivation of this study is to extend our understanding of tear film dynamics, which is the prerequisite to advance the management of Dry Eye Disease, through the simultaneous estimation of the thickness of the tear film lipid and aqueous layers. The estimator takes into account the different statistical processes associated with the imaging chain. We theoretically investigated the impact of key system parameters, such as the axial point spread functions (PSF) and various sources of noise on measurement uncertainty. Simulations show that an OCT system with a 1 μm axial PSF (FWHM) allows unbiased estimates down to nanometers with nanometer precision. In implementation, we built a customized Fourier domain OCT system that operates in the 600 to 1000 nm spectral window and achieves 0.93 micron axial PSF in corneal epithelium. We then validated the theoretical framework with physical phantoms made of custom optical coatings, with layer thicknesses from tens of nanometers to microns. Results demonstrate unbiased nanometer-class thickness estimates in three different physical phantoms.

  15. 39 CFR 3050.22 - Documentation supporting attributable cost estimates in the Postal Service's section 3652 report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Variability Study; (n) Econometric analysis of postmaster cost variability; (o) Floor Space Survey; and (p) Density studies used to convert weight to cubic feet of mail. ..., Demand Side Variability, and Network Variability studies, including input data, processing programs,...

  16. 39 CFR 3050.22 - Documentation supporting attributable cost estimates in the Postal Service's section 3652 report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Variability Study; (n) Econometric analysis of postmaster cost variability; (o) Floor Space Survey; and (p) Density studies used to convert weight to cubic feet of mail. ..., Demand Side Variability, and Network Variability studies, including input data, processing programs,...

  17. 39 CFR 3050.22 - Documentation supporting attributable cost estimates in the Postal Service's section 3652 report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Variability Study; (n) Econometric analysis of postmaster cost variability; (o) Floor Space Survey; and (p) Density studies used to convert weight to cubic feet of mail. ..., Demand Side Variability, and Network Variability studies, including input data, processing programs,...

  18. 39 CFR 3050.22 - Documentation supporting attributable cost estimates in the Postal Service's section 3652 report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... Variability Study; (n) Econometric analysis of postmaster cost variability; (o) Floor Space Survey; and (p) Density studies used to convert weight to cubic feet of mail. ..., Demand Side Variability, and Network Variability studies, including input data, processing programs,...

  19. Advanced life support study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Summary reports on each of the eight tasks undertaken by this contract are given. Discussed here is an evaluation of a Closed Ecological Life Support System (CELSS), including modeling and analysis of Physical/Chemical Closed Loop Life Support (P/C CLLS); the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) evolution - Intermodule Ventilation study; advanced technologies interface requirements relative to ECLSS; an ECLSS resupply analysis; the ECLSS module addition relocation systems engineering analysis; an ECLSS cost/benefit analysis to identify rack-level interface requirements of the alternate technologies evaluated in the ventilation study, with a comparison of these with the rack level interface requirements for the baseline technologies; advanced instrumentation - technology database enhancement; and a clean room survey and assessment of various ECLSS evaluation options for different growth scenarios.

  20. Advances in Norovirus Biology

    PubMed Central

    Karst, Stephanie M.; Wobus, Christiane E.; Goodfellow, Ian G.; Green, Kim Y.

    2014-01-01

    Human noroviruses are a major cause of epidemic and sporadic gastroenteritis worldwide, and can chronically infect immunocompromised patients. Efforts to develop effective vaccines and antivirals have been hindered by the uncultivable nature and extreme genetic diversity of human noroviruses. Although they remain a particularly challenging pathogen to study, recent advances in norovirus animal models and in vitro cultivation systems have led to an increased understanding of norovirus molecular biology and replication, pathogenesis, cell tropism, and innate and adaptive immunity. Furthermore, clinical trials of vaccines consisting of nonreplicating virus-like particles have shown promise. In this review, we summarize these recent advances and discuss controversies in the field, which is rapidly progressing towards generation of antiviral agents and increasingly effective vaccines. PMID:24922570

  1. Advanced CCD camera developments

    SciTech Connect

    Condor, A.

    1994-11-15

    Two charge coupled device (CCD) camera systems are introduced and discussed, describing briefly the hardware involved, and the data obtained in their various applications. The Advanced Development Group Defense Sciences Engineering Division has been actively designing, manufacturing, fielding state-of-the-art CCD camera systems for over a decade. These systems were originally developed for the nuclear test program to record data from underground nuclear tests. Today, new and interesting application for these systems have surfaced and development is continuing in the area of advanced CCD camera systems, with the new CCD camera that will allow experimenters to replace film for x-ray imaging at the JANUS, USP, and NOVA laser facilities.

  2. CADC Advanced Search

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, D. N.

    2012-09-01

    The Canadian Astronomy Data Centre's (CADC) Advanced Search web application is a modern search tool to access data across the CADC archives. It allows searching in different units, and is well averse in wild card characters and numeric operations. Search results are displayed in a sortable and filterable manner allowing quick and accurate access to downloadable data. The Advanced Search interface makes extremely good use of the Astronomical Data Query Language (ADQL) to scour the Common Archive Observation Model (CAOM) Table Access Protocol (TAP) query service and the vast CADC Archive Data (AD) storage system. A new tabular view of the query form and the results data makes it easy to view the query, then return to the query form to make further changes, or, alternatively, filter the data from the paginated table. Results are displayed using a rich, open-source, JavaScript-based VOTable viewer called voview.

  3. Advanced Separation Consortium

    SciTech Connect

    2006-01-01

    The Center for Advanced Separation Technologies (CAST) was formed in 2001 under the sponsorship of the US Department of Energy to conduct fundamental research in advanced separation and to develop technologies that can be used to produce coal and minerals in an efficient and environmentally acceptable manner. The CAST consortium consists of seven universities - Virginia Tech, West Virginia University, University of Kentucky, Montana Tech, University of Utah, University of Nevada-Reno, and New Mexico Tech. The consortium brings together a broad range of expertise to solve problems facing the US coal industry and the mining sector in general. At present, a total of 60 research projects are under way. The article outlines some of these, on topics including innovative dewatering technologies, removal of mercury and other impurities, and modelling of the flotation process. 1 photo.

  4. Advanced far infrared detectors

    SciTech Connect

    Haller, E.E.

    1993-05-01

    Recent advances in photoconductive and bolometric semiconductor detectors for wavelength 1 mm > {lambda} > 50 {mu}m are reviewed. Progress in detector performance in this photon energy range has been stimulated by new and stringent requirements for ground based, high altitude and space-borne telescopes for astronomical and astrophysical observations. The paper consists of chapters dealing with the various types of detectors: Be and Ga doped Ge photoconductors, stressed Ge:Ga devices and neutron transmutation doped Ge thermistors. Advances in the understanding of basic detector physics and the introduction of modern semiconductor device technology have led to predictable and reliable fabrication techniques. Integration of detectors into functional arrays has become feasible and is vigorously pursued by groups worldwide.

  5. Advanced light source

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sah, R. C.

    1983-03-01

    The Advanced Light Source (ALS) is a new synchrotron radiation source which was proposed by Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory. The ALS will be a key component in a major new research facility, the National Center for Advanced Materials. The ALS will consist of an electron linear accelerator, a booster synchrotron, a 1.3-GeV electron storage ring, and a number of photon beam lines. Most of all photon beam lines will originate from wiggler and undulator magnets placed in the 12 long straight sections of the ALS. A very low electron beam emittance will provide photon beams of unsurpassed spectral brilliance from specially-designed undulators, and a high radiofrequency will produce very short pulse lengths.

  6. Advanced information society(5)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanizawa, Ippei

    Based on the advancement of information network technology information communication forms informationalized society giving significant impact on business activities and life style in it. The information network has been backed up technologically by development of computer technology and has got great contribution by enhanced computer technology and communication equipments. Information is transferred by digital and analog methods. Technical development which has brought out multifunctioned modems of communication equipments in analog mode, and construction of advanced information communication network which has come out by joint work of computer and communication under digital technique, are described. The trend in institutional matter and standardization of electrical communication is also described showing some examples of value-added network (VAN).

  7. Advanced ground station architecture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zillig, David; Benjamin, Ted

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a new station architecture for NASA's Ground Network (GN). The architecture makes efficient use of emerging technologies to provide dramatic reductions in size, operational complexity, and operational and maintenance costs. The architecture, which is based on recent receiver work sponsored by the Office of Space Communications Advanced Systems Program, allows integration of both GN and Space Network (SN) modes of operation in the same electronics system. It is highly configurable through software and the use of charged coupled device (CCD) technology to provide a wide range of operating modes. Moreover, it affords modularity of features which are optional depending on the application. The resulting system incorporates advanced RF, digital, and remote control technology capable of introducing significant operational, performance, and cost benefits to a variety of NASA communications and tracking applications.

  8. Recent Advances in Voltammetry

    PubMed Central

    Batchelor-McAuley, Christopher; Kätelhön, Enno; Barnes, Edward O; Compton, Richard G; Laborda, Eduardo; Molina, Angela

    2015-01-01

    Recent progress in the theory and practice of voltammetry is surveyed and evaluated. The transformation over the last decade of the level of modelling and simulation of experiments has realised major advances such that electrochemical techniques can be fully developed and applied to real chemical problems of distinct complexity. This review focuses on the topic areas of: multistep electrochemical processes, voltammetry in ionic liquids, the development and interpretation of theories of electron transfer (Butler–Volmer and Marcus–Hush), advances in voltammetric pulse techniques, stochastic random walk models of diffusion, the influence of migration under conditions of low support, voltammetry at rough and porous electrodes, and nanoparticle electrochemistry. The review of the latter field encompasses both the study of nanoparticle-modified electrodes, including stripping voltammetry and the new technique of ‘nano-impacts’. PMID:26246984

  9. Recent Advances in Voltammetry.

    PubMed

    Batchelor-McAuley, Christopher; Kätelhön, Enno; Barnes, Edward O; Compton, Richard G; Laborda, Eduardo; Molina, Angela

    2015-06-01

    Recent progress in the theory and practice of voltammetry is surveyed and evaluated. The transformation over the last decade of the level of modelling and simulation of experiments has realised major advances such that electrochemical techniques can be fully developed and applied to real chemical problems of distinct complexity. This review focuses on the topic areas of: multistep electrochemical processes, voltammetry in ionic liquids, the development and interpretation of theories of electron transfer (Butler-Volmer and Marcus-Hush), advances in voltammetric pulse techniques, stochastic random walk models of diffusion, the influence of migration under conditions of low support, voltammetry at rough and porous electrodes, and nanoparticle electrochemistry. The review of the latter field encompasses both the study of nanoparticle-modified electrodes, including stripping voltammetry and the new technique of 'nano-impacts'.

  10. Advanced Clothing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broyan, James; Orndoff, Evelyne

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the Advanced Clothing System (ACS) is to use advanced commercial off-the-shelf fibers and antimicrobial treatments with the goal of directly reducing the mass and volume of a logistics item. The current clothing state-of-the-art on the International Space Station (ISS) is disposable, mostly cotton-based, clothing with no laundry provisions. Each clothing article has varying use periods and will become trash. The goal is to increase the length of wear of the clothing to reduce the logistical mass and volume. The initial focus has been exercise clothing since the use period is lower. Various ground studies and an ISS technology demonstration have been conducted to evaluate clothing preference and length of wear. The analysis indicates that use of ACS selected garments (e.g. wool, modacrylic, polyester) can increase the breakeven point for laundry to 300 days.

  11. Advanced Clothing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlesinger, Thilini; Broyan, James; Orndoff, Evelyne

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the Advanced Clothing System (ACS) is to use advanced commercial off-theshelf fibers and antimicrobial treatments with the goal of directly reducing the mass and volume of a logistics item. The current clothing state-of-the-art on the International Space Station (ISS) is disposable, mostly cotton-based, clothing with no laundry provisions. Each clothing article has varying use periods and will become trash. The goal is to increase the length of wear of the clothing to reduce the logistical mass and volume. The initial focus has been exercise clothing since the use period is lower. Various ground studies and an ISS technology demonstration have been conducted to evaluate clothing preference and length of wear. The analysis indicates that use of ACS selected garments (e.g. wool, modacrylic, polyester) can increase the breakeven point for laundry to 300 days.

  12. [Research advances in dendrochronology].

    PubMed

    Fang, Ke-Yan; Chen, Qiu-Yan; Liu, Chang-Zhi; Cao, Chun-Fu; Chen, Ya-Jun; Zhou, Fei-Fei

    2014-07-01

    Tree-ring studies in China have achieved great advances since the 1990s, particularly for the dendroclimatological studies which have made some influence around the world. However, because of the uneven development, limited attention has been currently paid on the other branches of dendrochronology. We herein briefly compared the advances of dendrochronology in China and of the world and presented suggestions on future dendrochronological studies. Large-scale tree-ring based climate reconstructions in China are highly needed by employing mathematical methods and a high quality tree-ring network of the ring-width, density, stable isotope and wood anatomy. Tree-ring based field climate reconstructions provide potentials on explorations of climate forcings during the reconstructed periods via climate diagnosis and process simulation.

  13. Advanced Life Support Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barta, Daniel J.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation is planned to be a 10-15 minute "catalytic" focused presentation to be scheduled during one of the working sessions at the TIM. This presentation will focus on Advanced Life Support technologies key to future human Space Exploration as outlined in the Vision, and will include basic requirements, assessment of the state-of-the-art and gaps, and include specific technology metrics. The presentation will be technical in character, lean heavily on data in published ALS documents (such as the Baseline Values and Assumptions Document) but not provide specific technical details or build to information on any technology mentioned (thus the presentation will be benign from an export control and a new technology perspective). The topics presented will be focused on the following elements of Advanced Life Support: air revitalization, water recovery, waste management, thermal control, habitation systems, food systems and bioregenerative life support.

  14. Technical advances power neuroscience

    SciTech Connect

    Barinaga, M.

    1991-01-01

    New techniques are helping researchers study the development of nerve cells in cell cultures and in vivo. These new methods are offering insights into the brain that were not available even a couple of years ago. Among the new advances discussed are imaging technology for evaluating the thinking human brain. One area in which researchers have made recent progress is the quest for ways to create immortal cell lines from specific types of nerve cells. Other projects using genetically engineered retroviruses and tumor-inducing genes, as well as gene regulation are discussed. Recent advances in neuroscience techniques apply not only to neurons, but also to whole brains as well. One example is a high-resulution electroencephalogram (EEG). Although the EEG cannot pin down the actual sites of activity as precisely as static brain imaging methods, it complements them with real-time recording that can keep up with the very rapid pace of brain activity.

  15. Adaptive spectral doppler estimation.

    PubMed

    Gran, Fredrik; Jakobsson, Andreas; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    2009-04-01

    In this paper, 2 adaptive spectral estimation techniques are analyzed for spectral Doppler ultrasound. The purpose is to minimize the observation window needed to estimate the spectrogram to provide a better temporal resolution and gain more flexibility when designing the data acquisition sequence. The methods can also provide better quality of the estimated power spectral density (PSD) of the blood signal. Adaptive spectral estimation techniques are known to provide good spectral resolution and contrast even when the observation window is very short. The 2 adaptive techniques are tested and compared with the averaged periodogram (Welch's method). The blood power spectral capon (BPC) method is based on a standard minimum variance technique adapted to account for both averaging over slow-time and depth. The blood amplitude and phase estimation technique (BAPES) is based on finding a set of matched filters (one for each velocity component of interest) and filtering the blood process over slow-time and averaging over depth to find the PSD. The methods are tested using various experiments and simulations. First, controlled flow-rig experiments with steady laminar flow are carried out. Simulations in Field II for pulsating flow resembling the femoral artery are also analyzed. The simulations are followed by in vivo measurement on the common carotid artery. In all simulations and experiments it was concluded that the adaptive methods display superior performance for short observation windows compared with the averaged periodogram. Computational costs and implementation details are also discussed.

  16. Subelliptic Estimates for Complexes

    PubMed Central

    Guillemin, Victor; Sternberg, Shlomo

    1970-01-01

    New results are announced linking properties of the symbol module and characteristic variety of a differential complex with test estimates near the characteristic variety of the type considered by Hörmander (½-estimate). The first result is the invariance of the test estimates under pseudo-differential change of coordinates, and this leads to the introduction of a normal form for the complex in the neighborhood of a Cohen-MacCauley point of the symbol module. If the characteristic variety V is a manifold near the Cohen-MacCauley point (x0,ζ0) with parametrizing functions p1,...,pq, where q is the codimension of the characteristic variety in the complexified contangent bundle, the matrix [Formula: see text] of Poisson brackets defines invariantly a Hermitian form Q on the normal space to V at (x0,ζ0) when the dpζ(x0,ζ0) are used as basis, and the test estimates are satisfied at the ith stage of the complex if sig. Q (signature of Q) is ≥ n - i + 1 (n the dimension of the base manifold) or rank Q - sig. Q ≥ i + 1. Finally, conditions are given in order that, on a manifold with smooth boundary, the associated boundary complexes satisfy the ½-estimate. PMID:16591855

  17. G4 Advanced Education.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-06-29

    Advanced Finance and Economy Edu- cation/Zhao Dongya// Finance and Economy Science(Journal of Sichuan Finance and Economy College)(Chengdu), 1986. 2. 63...67 Preliminary Thoughts on the Reform of Industrial, Enterprising Finance Management Curriculums/Gu Xingsu//Journal of Beijing Foreign Trade College...1985. 4. 71-76 Humble Opinions on Offering Classes in "Construction of Chinese Social- ism"/Zhao Luxin//Theory and Implementation of Finance and

  18. Advances in Strapdown Sensors

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-04-01

    axis laser gyro sensor assembly (1, 24) in a single Zerodur structure using interleaved laser paths to reduce net size/weight. If advances in mirror ...laser gyros, special design considerations - associated with mechanically dithered laaer gyros, the state-of-the-art in magnetic mirror and...from the lasing action of a helium-noon gas discharge within the optical cavity. The reflecting surfaces are die- lectric mirrors designed to

  19. Advanced Environmental Monitoring Technologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jan, Darrell

    2004-01-01

    Viewgraphs on Advanced Environmental Monitoring Technologies are presented. The topics include: 1) Monitoring & Controlling the Environment; 2) Illustrative Example: Canary 3) Ground-based Commercial Technology; 4) High Capability & Low Mass/Power + Autonomy = Key to Future SpaceFlight; 5) Current Practice: in Flight; 6) Current Practice: Post Flight; 7) Miniature Mass Spectrometer for Planetary Exploration and Long Duration Human Flight; 8) Hardware and Data Acquisition System; 9) 16S rDNA Phylogenetic Tree; and 10) Preview of Porter.

  20. Advances in Doppler OCT

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Gangjun; Chen, Zhongping

    2014-01-01

    We review the principle and some recent applications of Doppler optical coherence tomography (OCT). The advances of the phase-resolved Doppler OCT method are described. Functional OCT algorithms which are based on an extension of the phase-resolved scheme are also introduced. Recent applications of Doppler OCT for quantification of flow, imaging of microvasculature and vocal fold vibration, and optical coherence elastography are briefly discussed. PMID:24443649

  1. Advanced geothermal technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Whetten, J.T.; Murphy, H.D.; Hanold, R.J.; Myers, C.W.; Dunn, J.C.

    1988-01-01

    Research and development in advanced technologies for geothermal energy production continue to increase the energy production options for the Nation. The high-risk investment over the past few years by the US Department of Energy in geopressured, hot dry rock, and magma energy resources is producing new means to lower production costs and to take advantage of these resources. The Nation has far larger and more regionally extensive geothermal resources than heretofore realized. At the end of a short 30-day closed-loop flow test, the manmade hot dry rock reservoir at Fenton Hill, New Mexico, was producing 10 MW thermal - and still climbing - proving the technical feasibility of this new technology. The scientific feasibility of magma energy extraction has been demonstrated, and new field tests to evaluate this technology are planned. Analysis and field tests confirm the viability of geopressured-geothermal energy and the prospect that many dry-hole or depleted petroleum wells can be turned into producing geopressured-geothermal wells. Technological advances achieved through hot dry rock, magma, geopressured, and other geothermal research are making these resources and conventional hydrothermal resources more competitive. Noteworthy among these technological advances are techniques in computer simulation of geothermal reservoirs, new means for well stimulation, new high-temperature logging tools and packers, new hard-rock penetration techniques, and new methods for mapping fracture flow paths across large underground areas in reservoirs. In addition, many of these same technological advances can be applied by the petroleum industry to help lower production costs in domestic oil and gas fields. 5 refs., 4 figs.

  2. Polarized advanced fuel reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Kulsrud, R.M.

    1987-07-01

    The d-/sup 3/He reaction has the same spin dependence as the d-t reaction. It produces no neutrons, so that if the d-d reactivity could be reduced, it would lead to a neutron-lean reactor. The current understanding of the possible suppression of the d-d reactivity by spin polarization is discussed. The question as to whether a suppression is possible is still unresolved. Other advanced fuel reactions are briefly discussed. 11 refs.

  3. Advances in epilepsy surgery

    PubMed Central

    Nowell, Mark; Miserocchi, Anna; McEvoy, Andrew W; Duncan, John S

    2014-01-01

    This review summarises exciting recent and forthcoming advances that will impact on the surgical management of epilepsy in the near future. This does not cover the current accepted diagnostic methodologies or surgical treatments that are routinely practiced today. The content of this review was derived from a PubMed literature search, using the key words ‘Epilepsy Surgery’, ‘Neuromodulation’, ‘Neuroablation’, ‘Advances’, between 2010 and November 2013. PMID:24719180

  4. Advanced nuclear propulsion technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Cassenti, B.N. )

    1991-01-01

    Advanced nuclear propulsion can take on several forms. Radioactive thrust sheets directly use the decay of radioactive nuclei to provide propulsion. The fissioning of nuclei has been extensively studied for propulsion both analytically and experimentally. Fusion has been analytically examined as a means of providing propulsion during the last few decades. In the last decade, serious attention has been given to the direct annihilation of matter. Each of these technologies is discussed in this paper with the greatest emphasis on antiproton annihilation propulsion.

  5. STIR: Advanced Quantum Sensing

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-07-18

    STIR: Advanced Quantum Sensing Recycling unmeasured photons in a system utilizing weak measurements can substantially improve the signal-to- noise...Quantum Sensing Report Title Recycling unmeasured photons in a system utilizing weak measurements can substantially improve the signal-to-noise ratio. We...Kevin Lyons, Andrew N. Jordan, Trent M. Graham, Paul G. Kwiat. Strengthening weak- value amplification with recycled photons , Physical Review A, (08

  6. Advanced turboprop vibratory characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Srinivasan, A. V.; Fulton, G. B.

    1984-01-01

    The assembly of SR5 advanced turboprop blades to develop a structural dynamic data base for swept props is reported. Steady state blade deformation under centrifugal loading and vibratory characteristics of the rotor assembly were measured. Vibration was induced through a system of piezoelectric crystals attached to the blades. Data reduction procedures are used to provide deformation, mode shape, and frequencies of the assembly at predetermined speeds.

  7. The advanced neutron source

    SciTech Connect

    Raman, S.; Hayter, J.B.

    1990-01-01

    The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) is a new user experimental facility planned to be operational at Oak Ridge in the late 1990's. The centerpiece of the ANS will be a steady-state research reactor of unprecedented thermal neutron flux ({phi}{sub th} {approx} 8 {times} 10{sup 19} m{sup {minus}2} {center dot}s{sup {minus}1}) accompanied by extensive and comprehensive equipment and facilities for neutron-based research.

  8. The Advanced Neutron Source

    SciTech Connect

    Hayter, J.B.

    1989-01-01

    The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) is a new user experimental facility planned to be operational at Oak Ridge in the late 1990's. The centerpiece of the ANS will be a steady-state research reactor of unprecedented thermal neutron flux ({phi}{sub th} {approx} 9{center dot}10{sup 19} m{sup -2}{center dot}s{sup -1}) accompanied by extensive and comprehensive equipment and facilities for neutron-based research. 5 refs., 5 figs.

  9. Advanced Polymer Processing Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Muenchausen, Ross E.

    2012-07-25

    Some conclusions of this presentation are: (1) Radiation-assisted nanotechnology applications will continue to grow; (2) The APPF will provide a unique focus for radiolytic processing of nanomaterials in support of DOE-DP, other DOE and advanced manufacturing initiatives; (3) {gamma}, X-ray, e-beam and ion beam processing will increasingly be applied for 'green' manufacturing of nanomaterials and nanocomposites; and (4) Biomedical science and engineering may ultimately be the biggest application area for radiation-assisted nanotechnology development.

  10. Advanced Triangulation Displacement Sensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poteet, Wade M.; Cauthen, Harold K.

    1996-01-01

    Advanced optoelectronic triangulation displacement sensors undergoing development. Highly miniaturized, more stable, more accurate, and relatively easy to use. Incorporate wideband electronic circuits suitable for real-time monitoring and control of displacements. Measurements expected to be accurate to within nanometers. In principle, sensors mass-produced at relatively low unit cost. Potential applications numerous. Possible industrial application in measuring runout of rotating shaft or other moving part during fabrication in "zero-defect" manufacturing system, in which measured runout automatically corrected.

  11. Recent advances in dermoscopy

    PubMed Central

    Russo, Teresa; Piccolo, Vincenzo; Lallas, Aimilios; Argenziano, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    The use of dermoscopy has offered a new morphological dimension of skin lesions and has provided an effective diagnostic tool to differentiate melanoma from other benign or malignant skin tumors but also to support the clinical diagnosis in general dermatology. The aim of this article is to provide an overview of the most recent and important advances in the rising world of dermoscopy. PMID:26949523

  12. Advanced Doppler tracking experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Armstrong, J. W.

    1989-01-01

    The Doppler tracking method is currently the only technique available for broadband gravitational wave searches in the approx. 10(exp -4) to 10(exp -1) Hz low frequency band. A brief review is given of the Doppler method, a discussion of the main noise sources, and a review of experience with current spacecraft and the prospects for sensitivity improvements in an advanced Doppler tracking experiment.

  13. Advanced Subsonic Combustion Rig

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Chi-Ming

    1998-01-01

    Researchers from the NASA Lewis Research Center have obtained the first combustion/emissions data under extreme future engine operating conditions. In Lewis' new world-class 60-atm combustor research facility--the Advanced Subsonic Combustion Rig (ASCR)--a flametube was used to conduct combustion experiments in environments as extreme as 900 psia and 3400 F. The greatest challenge for combustion researchers is the uncertainty of the effects of pressure on the formation of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Consequently, U.S. engine manufacturers are using these data to guide their future combustor designs. The flametube's metal housing has an inside diameter of 12 in. and a length of 10.5 in. The flametube can be used with a variety of different flow paths. Each flow path is lined with a high-temperature, castable refractory material (alumina) to minimize heat loss. Upstream of the flametube is the injector section, which has an inside diameter of 13 in. and a length of 0.5-in. It was designed to provide for quick changeovers. This flametube is being used to provide all U.S. engine manufacturers early assessments of advanced combustion concepts at full power conditions prior to engine production. To date, seven concepts from engine manufacturers have been evaluated and improved. This collaborated development can potentially give U.S. engine manufacturers the competitive advantage of being first in the market with advanced low-emission technologies.

  14. Advances in thermal engineering

    SciTech Connect

    Kitto, J.B.; Fiveland, W.A.; Latham, C.E.; Peterson, G.P.

    1995-03-01

    Heat transfer--more broadly, thermal engineering--is playing an increasingly critical role in the development and successful application of advanced technology in virtually all fields. From space stations to hazardous-waste destruction to high-speed transport, from ozone-protecting refrigerants to ``night vision`` goggles, a vast range of technologies depend on energy management, heat-flow control, and temperature control to successfully meet their design objectives and attain commercial success. Meeting the continually escalating demand for electricity and ``cheap`` process that will remain a challenge. Environmental protection can depend not only on using energy more efficiently, but on changing the energy conversion process to reduce initial pollutant formation. Further advances in electronics, materials processing, and manufacturing will depend in part on more precise energy management and temperature control. The scale of thermal engineering is quite broad, extending from the very large to the near-molecular level, and from very high temperatures of thousands of degrees to very low ones approaching absolute zero. This breadth of application is illustrated by a review of three specific areas: application of advanced numerical modeling to large boiler furnaces (approaching 100 m in height) in order to improve environmental performance; application of microscale ({approximately}100 {micro}) heat pipes to cool high-performance electronic circuits; and a look at some of the manufacturing processes where heat transfer and thermal analysis improve quality, performance and cost.

  15. Are Advanced Potentials Anomalous?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibison, Michael

    2006-10-01

    Advanced electromagnetic potentials are indigenous to the classical Maxwell theory. Generally however they are deemed undesirable and are forcibly excluded, destroying the theory's inherent time-symmetry. We investigate the reason for this, pointing out that it is not necessary and in some cases is counter-productive. We then focus on the direct-action theory in which the advanced and retarded contributions are present symmetrically, with no opportunity supplement the particular integral solution of the wave equation with an arbitrary complementary function. One then requires a plausible explanation for the observed broken symmetry that, commonly, is understood cannot be met by the Wheeler-Feynman mechanism because the necessary boundary condition cannot be satisfied in acceptable cosmologies. We take this opportunity to argue that the boundary condition is already met by all expanding cosmologies simply as a result of cosmological red-shift. A consequence is that the cosmological and thermodynamic arrows of time can be equated, the direct action version of EM is preferred, and that advanced potentials are ubiquitous.

  16. Advanced gearbox technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, N. E.; Cedoz, R. W.; Salama, E. E.; Wagner, D. A.

    1987-01-01

    An advanced 13,000 HP, counterrotating (CR) gearbox was designed and successfully tested to provide a technology base for future designs of geared propfan propulsion systems for both commercial and military aircraft. The advanced technology CR gearbox was designed for high efficiency, low weight, long life, and improved maintainability. The differential planetary CR gearbox features double helical gears, double row cylindrical roller bearings integral with planet gears, tapered roller prop support bearings, and a flexible ring gear and diaphragm to provide load sharing. A new Allison propfan back-to-back gearbox test facility was constructed. Extensive rotating and stationary instrumentation was used to measure temperature, strain, vibration, deflection and efficiency under representative flight operating conditions. The tests verified smooth, efficient gearbox operation. The highly-instrumented advanced CR gearbox was successfully tested to design speed and power (13,000 HP), and to a 115 percent overspeed condition. Measured CR gearbox efficiency was 99.3 percent at the design point based on heat loss to the oil. Tests demonstrated low vibration characteristics of double helical gearing, proper gear tooth load sharing, low stress levels, and the high load capacity of the prop tapered roller bearings. Applied external prop loads did not significantly affect gearbox temperature, vibration, or stress levels. Gearbox hardware was in excellent condition after the tests with no indication of distress.

  17. Advanced scale conditioning agents

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, Jeff; Battaglia, Philip J.

    2004-06-01

    A technical description of Advanced Scale Conditioning Agents (ASCA) technology was published in the May-June 2003 edition of the Nuclear Plant Journal. That article described the development of programs of advanced scale conditioning agents and specific types to maintain the secondary side of steam generators within a pressurized water reactor free of deposited corrosion products and corrosion-inducing contaminants to ensure their long-term operation. This article describes the first two plant applications of advanced scale conditioning agents implemented at Southern Nuclear Operating Company's Vogtle Units 1 and 2 during their 2002 scheduled outages to minimize tube degradation and maintain full power operation using the most effective techniques while minimizing outage costs. The goal was to remove three to four fuel cycles of deposits from each steam generator so that after future chemical cleaning activities, ASCAs could be used to maintain the cleanliness of the steam generators without the need for additional chemical cleaning efforts. The goal was achieved as well as several other benefits that resulted in cost savings to the plant.

  18. Advanced Technology Vehicle Testing

    SciTech Connect

    James Francfort

    2003-11-01

    The light-duty vehicle transportation sector in the United States depends heavily on imported petroleum as a transportation fuel. The Department of Energy’s Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA) is testing advanced technology vehicles to help reduce this dependency, which would contribute to the economic stability and homeland security of the United States. These advanced technology test vehicles include internal combustion engine vehicles operating on 100% hydrogen (H2) and H2CNG (compressed natural gas) blended fuels, hybrid electric vehicles, neighborhood electric vehicles, urban electric vehicles, and electric ground support vehicles. The AVTA tests and evaluates these vehicles with closed track and dynamometer testing methods (baseline performance testing) and accelerated reliability testing methods (accumulating lifecycle vehicle miles and operational knowledge within 1 to 1.5 years), and in normal fleet environments. The Arizona Public Service Alternative Fuel Pilot Plant and H2-fueled vehicles are demonstrating the feasibility of using H2 as a transportation fuel. Hybrid, neighborhood, and urban electric test vehicles are demonstrating successful applications of electric drive vehicles in various fleet missions. The AVTA is also developing electric ground support equipment (GSE) test procedures, and GSE testing will start during the fall of 2003. All of these activities are intended to support U.S. energy independence. The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory manages these activities for the AVTA.

  19. Advanced Multiple Aperture Seeing Profiler

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Deqing; Zhao, Gang

    2016-10-01

    Measurements of the seeing profile of the atmospheric turbulence as a function of altitude are crucial for solar astronomical site characterization, as well as the optimized design and performance estimation of solar Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics (MCAO). Knowledge of the seeing distribution, up to 30 km, with a potential new solar observation site, is required for future solar MCAO developments. Current optical seeing profile measurement techniques are limited by the need to use a large facility solar telescope for such seeing profile measurements, which is a serious limitation on characterizing a site's seeing conditions in terms of the seeing profile. Based on our previous work, we propose a compact solar seeing profiler called the Advanced Multiple Aperture Seeing Profile (A-MASP). A-MASP consists of two small telescopes, each with a 100 mm aperture. The two small telescopes can be installed on a commercial computerized tripod to track solar granule structures for seeing profile measurement. A-MASP is extreme simple and portable, which makes it an ideal system to bring to a potential new site for seeing profile measurements.

  20. Advances in Solar Power Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haupt, S. E.; Kosovic, B.; Drobot, S.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research and partners are building a blended SunCast Solar Power Forecasting system. This system includes several short-range nowcasting models and improves upon longer range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as part of the "Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting." The nowcasting models being built include statistical learning models that include cloud regime prediction, multiple sky imager-based advection models, satellite image-based advection models, and rapid update NWP models with cloud assimilation. The team has also integrated new modules into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to better predict clouds, aerosols, and irradiance. The modules include a new shallow convection scheme; upgraded physics parameterizations of clouds; new radiative transfer modules that specify GHI, DNI, and DIF prediction; better satellite assimilation methods; and new aerosol estimation methods. These new physical models are incorporated into WRF-Solar, which is then integrated with publically available NWP models via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) system as well as the Nowcast Blender to provide seamless forecasts at partner utility and balancing authority commercial solar farms. The improvements will be described and results to date discussed.