How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

DOE PAGES

Hagos, Samson; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Chun; ...

2018-02-10

Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the columnmore » PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.« less

How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagos, Samson; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Chun

Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the columnmore » PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.« less

Contrails and contrail-cirrus microphysics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-25

Theme 4 of the ACCRI, Contrails and Contrail-Specific Microphysics, reviews the current : state of understanding of the science of contrails: 1) how they are formed, 2) their microphysical properties as they evolve, 3) how they develop into con...

Intel Xeon Phi accelerated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Goddard microphysics scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mielikainen, J.; Huang, B.; Huang, A. H.-L.

2014-12-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both atmospheric research and operational forecasting needs. The WRF development is a done in collaboration around the globe. Furthermore, the WRF is used by academic atmospheric scientists, weather forecasters at the operational centers and so on. The WRF contains several physics components. The most time consuming one is the microphysics. One microphysics scheme is the Goddard cloud microphysics scheme. It is a sophisticated cloud microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The Goddard microphysics scheme is very suitable for massively parallel computation as there are no interactions among horizontal grid points. Compared to the earlier microphysics schemes, the Goddard scheme incorporates a large number of improvements. Thus, we have optimized the Goddard scheme code. In this paper, we present our results of optimizing the Goddard microphysics scheme on Intel Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) hardware. The Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor is the first product based on Intel MIC architecture, and it consists of up to 61 cores connected by a high performance on-die bidirectional interconnect. The Intel MIC is capable of executing a full operating system and entire programs rather than just kernels as the GPU does. The MIC coprocessor supports all important Intel development tools. Thus, the development environment is one familiar to a vast number of CPU developers. Although, getting a maximum performance out of MICs will require using some novel optimization techniques. Those optimization techniques are discussed in this paper. The results show that the optimizations improved performance of Goddard microphysics scheme on Xeon Phi 7120P by a factor of 4.7×. In addition, the optimizations reduced the Goddard microphysics scheme's share of the total WRF processing time from 20.0 to 7.5%. Furthermore, the same optimizations

The Super Tuesday Outbreak: Forecast Sensitivities to Single-Moment Microphysics Schemes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dembek, Scott R.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William M.

2008-01-01

Forecast precipitation and radar characteristics are used by operational centers to guide the issuance of advisory products. As operational numerical weather prediction is performed at increasingly finer spatial resolution, convective precipitation traditionally represented by sub-grid scale parameterization schemes is now being determined explicitly through single- or multi-moment bulk water microphysics routines. Gains in forecasting skill are expected through improved simulation of clouds and their microphysical processes. High resolution model grids and advanced parameterizations are now available through steady increases in computer resources. As with any parameterization, their reliability must be measured through performance metrics, with errors noted and targeted for improvement. Furthermore, the use of these schemes within an operational framework requires an understanding of limitations and an estimate of biases so that forecasters and model development teams can be aware of potential errors. The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Spring Experiments have produced daily, high resolution forecasts used to evaluate forecast skill among an ensemble with varied physical parameterizations and data assimilation techniques. In this research, high resolution forecasts of the 5-6 February 2008 Super Tuesday Outbreak are replicated using the NSSL configuration in order to evaluate two components of simulated convection on a large domain: sensitivities of quantitative precipitation forecasts to assumptions within a single-moment bulk water microphysics scheme, and to determine if these schemes accurately depict the reflectivity characteristics of well-simulated, organized, cold frontal convection. As radar returns are sensitive to the amount of hydrometeor mass and the distribution of mass among variably sized targets, radar comparisons may guide potential improvements to a single-moment scheme. In addition, object-based verification metrics are evaluated for

Evaluation of Cloud Microphysics in JMA-NHM Simulations Using Bin or Bulk Microphysical Schemes through Comparison with Cloud Radar Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iguchi, Takamichi; Nakajima, Teruyuki; Khain, Alexander P.; Saito, Kazuo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Okamoto, Hajime; Nishizawa, Tomoaki; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2012-01-01

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations using the Japan Meteorological Agency NonhydrostaticModel (JMA-NHM) are conducted for three precipitation events observed by shipborne or spaceborneW-band cloud radars. Spectral bin and single-moment bulk cloud microphysics schemes are employed separatelyfor an intercomparative study. A radar product simulator that is compatible with both microphysicsschemes is developed to enable a direct comparison between simulation and observation with respect to theequivalent radar reflectivity factor Ze, Doppler velocity (DV), and path-integrated attenuation (PIA). Ingeneral, the bin model simulation shows better agreement with the observed data than the bulk modelsimulation. The correction of the terminal fall velocities of snowflakes using those of hail further improves theresult of the bin model simulation. The results indicate that there are substantial uncertainties in the masssizeand sizeterminal fall velocity relations of snowflakes or in the calculation of terminal fall velocity of snowaloft. For the bulk microphysics, the overestimation of Ze is observed as a result of a significant predominanceof snow over cloud ice due to substantial deposition growth directly to snow. The DV comparison shows thata correction for the fall velocity of hydrometeors considering a change of particle size should be introducedeven in single-moment bulk cloud microphysics.

Sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone size to microphysics schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Kelvin T. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

2016-09-01

The sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) size to microphysics schemes is studied using the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Six TCs during the 2013 western North Pacific typhoon season and three mainstream microphysics schemes-Ferrier (FER), WRF Single-Moment 5-class (WSM5) and WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6)-are investigated. The results consistently show that the simulated TC track is not sensitive to the choice of microphysics scheme in the early simulation, especially in the open ocean. However, the sensitivity is much greater for TC intensity and inner-core size. The TC intensity and size simulated using the WSM5 and WSM6 schemes are respectively higher and larger than those using the FER scheme in general, which likely results from more diabatic heating being generated outside the eyewall in rainbands. More diabatic heating in rainbands gives higher inflow in the lower troposphere and higher outflow in the upper troposphere, with higher upward motion outside the eyewall. The lower-tropospheric inflow would transport absolute angular momentum inward to spin up tangential wind predominantly near the eyewall, leading to the increment in TC intensity and size (the inner-core size, especially). In addition, the inclusion of graupel microphysics processes (as in WSM6) may not have a significant impact on the simulation of TC track, intensity and size.

An explicit microphysics thunderstorm model.

Treesearch

R. Solomon; C.M. Medaglia; C. Adamo; S. Dietrick; A. Mugnai; U. Biader Ceipidor

2005-01-01

The authors present a brief description of a 1.5-dimensional thunderstorm model with a lightning parameterization that utilizes an explicit microphysical scheme to model lightning-producing clouds. The main intent of this work is to describe the basic microphysical and electrical properties of the model, with a small illustrative section to show how the model may be...

Numerical Analysis Using WRF-SBM for the Cloud Microphysical Structures in the C3VP Field Campaign: Impacts of Supercooled Droplets and Resultant Riming on Snow Microphysics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iguchi, Takamichi; Matsui, Toshihisa; Shi, Jainn J.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Khain, Alexander P.; Hao, Arthur; Cifelli, Robert; Heymsfield, Andrew; Tokay, Ali

2012-01-01

Two distinct snowfall events are observed over the region near the Great Lakes during 19-23 January 2007 under the intensive measurement campaign of the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO validation project (C3VP). These events are numerically investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) scheme that allows a smooth calculation of riming process by predicting the rimed mass fraction on snow aggregates. The fundamental structures of the observed two snowfall systems are distinctly characterized by a localized intense lake-effect snowstorm in one case and a widely distributed moderate snowfall by the synoptic-scale system in another case. Furthermore, the observed microphysical structures are distinguished by differences in bulk density of solid-phase particles, which are probably linked to the presence or absence of supercooled droplets. The WRF-SBM coupled with Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit (G-SDSU) has successfully simulated these distinctive structures in the three-dimensional weather prediction run with a horizontal resolution of 1 km. In particular, riming on snow aggregates by supercooled droplets is considered to be of importance in reproducing the specialized microphysical structures in the case studies. Additional sensitivity tests for the lake-effect snowstorm case are conducted utilizing different planetary boundary layer (PBL) models or the same SBM but without the riming process. The PBL process has a large impact on determining the cloud microphysical structure of the lake-effect snowstorm as well as the surface precipitation pattern, whereas the riming process has little influence on the surface precipitation because of the small height of the system.

Three-moment representation of rain in a cloud microphysics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paukert, M.; Fan, J.; Rasch, P. J.; Morrison, H.; Milbrandt, J.; Khain, A.; Shpund, J.

2017-12-01

Two-moment microphysics schemes have been commonly used for cloud simulation in models across different scales - from large-eddy simulations to global climate models. These schemes have yielded valuable insights into cloud and precipitation processes, however the size distributions are limited to two degrees of freedom, and thus the shape parameter is typically fixed or diagnosed. We have developed a three-moment approach for the rain category in order to provide an additional degree of freedom to the size distribution and thereby improve the cloud microphysics representations for more accurate weather and climate simulations. The approach is applied to the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) scheme. In addition to the rain number and mass mixing ratios predicted in the two-moment P3, we now include prognostic equations for the sixth moment of the size distribution (radar reflectivity), thus allowing the shape parameter to evolve freely. We employ the spectral bin microphysics (SBM) model to formulate the three-moment process rates in P3 for drop collisions and breakup. We first test the three-moment scheme with a maritime stratocumulus case from the VOCALS field campaign, and compare the model results with respect to cloud and precipitation properties from the new P3 scheme, original two-moment P3 scheme, SBM, and in-situ aircraft measurements. The improved simulation results by the new P3 scheme will be discussed and physically explained.

Effects of microphysics parameterization on simulations of summer heavy precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe Region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kan, Yu; Chen, Bo; Shen, Tao; Liu, Chaoshun; Qiao, Fengxue

2017-09-01

It has been a longstanding problem for current weather/climate models to accurately predict summer heavy precipitation over the Yangtze-Huaihe Region (YHR) which is the key flood-prone area in China with intensive population and developed economy. Large uncertainty has been identified with model deficiencies in representing precipitation processes such as microphysics and cumulus parameterizations. This study focuses on examining the effects of microphysics parameterization on the simulation of different type of heavy precipitation over the YHR taking into account two different cumulus schemes. All regional persistent heavy precipitation events over the YHR during 2008-2012 are classified into three types according to their weather patterns: the type I associated with stationary front, the type II directly associated with typhoon or with its spiral rain band, and the type III associated with strong convection along the edge of the Subtropical High. Sixteen groups of experiments are conducted for three selected cases with different types and a local short-time rainstorm in Shanghai, using the WRF model with eight microphysics and two cumulus schemes. Results show that microphysics parameterization has large but different impacts on the location and intensity of regional heavy precipitation centers. The Ferrier (microphysics) -BMJ (cumulus) scheme and Thompson (microphysics) - KF (cumulus) scheme most realistically simulates the rain-bands with the center location and intensity for type I and II respectively. For type III, the Lin microphysics scheme shows advantages in regional persistent cases over YHR, while the WSM5 microphysics scheme is better in local short-term case, both with the BMJ cumulus scheme.

Influence of Meteorological Regimes on Cloud Microphysics Over Ross Island, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glennon, C.; Wang, S. H.; Scott, R. C.; Bromwich, D. H.; Lubin, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic provides a sharp contrast in cloud microphysics from the high Arctic, due to orographic lifting and resulting strong vertical motions induced by mountain ranges and other varying terrain on several spatial scales. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) deployed advanced cloud remote sensing equipment to Ross Island, Antarctica, from December 2015 until January 2016. This equipment included scanning and zenith radars operating in the Ka and X bands, a high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL), and a polarized micropulse lidar (MPL). A major AWARE objective is to provide state-of-the-art data for improving cloud microphysical parameterizations in climate models. To further this objective we have organized and classified the local Ross Island meteorology into distinct regimes using k-means clustering on ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We identify synoptic categories producing unique regimes of cloud cover and cloud microphysical properties over Ross Island. Each day of observations can then be associated with a specific meteorological regime, thus assisting modelers with identifying case studies. High-resolution (1 km) weather forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) are sorted into these categories. AMPS-simulated anomalies of cloud fraction, near-surface air temperature, and vertical velocity at 500-mb are composited and compared with ground-based radar and lidar-derived cloud properties to identify mesoscale meteorological processes driving Antarctic cloud formation. Synoptic lows over the Ross and Amundsen Seas drive anomalously warm conditions at Ross Island by injecting marine air masses inland over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). This results in ice and mixed-phase orographic cloud systems arriving at Ross Island from the south to southeast along the Transantarctic Mountains. In contrast, blocking over the Amundsen Sea region brings classical liquid-dominated mixed-phase and

GHI calculation sensitivity on microphysics, land- and cumulus parameterization in WRF over the Reunion Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Meij, A.; Vinuesa, J.-F.; Maupas, V.

2018-05-01

The sensitivity of different microphysics and dynamics schemes on calculated global horizontal irradiation (GHI) values in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model is studied. 13 sensitivity simulations were performed for which the microphysics, cumulus parameterization schemes and land surface models were changed. Firstly we evaluated the model's performance by comparing calculated GHI values for the Base Case with observations for the Reunion Island for 2014. In general, the model calculates the largest bias during the austral summer. This indicates that the model is less accurate in timing the formation and dissipation of clouds during the summer, when higher water vapor quantities are present in the atmosphere than during the austral winter. Secondly, the model sensitivity on changing the microphysics, cumulus parameterization and land surface models on calculated GHI values is evaluated. The sensitivity simulations showed that changing the microphysics from the Thompson scheme (or Single-Moment 6-class scheme) to the Morrison double-moment scheme, the relative bias improves from 45% to 10%. The underlying reason for this improvement is that the Morrison double-moment scheme predicts the mass and number concentrations of five hydrometeors, which help to improve the calculation of the densities, size and lifetime of the cloud droplets. While the single moment schemes only predicts the mass for less hydrometeors. Changing the cumulus parameterization schemes and land surface models does not have a large impact on GHI calculations.

Predicting Epileptic Seizures in Advance

PubMed Central

Moghim, Negin; Corne, David W.

2014-01-01

Epilepsy is the second most common neurological disorder, affecting 0.6–0.8% of the world's population. In this neurological disorder, abnormal activity of the brain causes seizures, the nature of which tend to be sudden. Antiepileptic Drugs (AEDs) are used as long-term therapeutic solutions that control the condition. Of those treated with AEDs, 35% become resistant to medication. The unpredictable nature of seizures poses risks for the individual with epilepsy. It is clearly desirable to find more effective ways of preventing seizures for such patients. The automatic detection of oncoming seizures, before their actual onset, can facilitate timely intervention and hence minimize these risks. In addition, advance prediction of seizures can enrich our understanding of the epileptic brain. In this study, drawing on the body of work behind automatic seizure detection and prediction from digitised Invasive Electroencephalography (EEG) data, a prediction algorithm, ASPPR (Advance Seizure Prediction via Pre-ictal Relabeling), is described. ASPPR facilitates the learning of predictive models targeted at recognizing patterns in EEG activity that are in a specific time window in advance of a seizure. It then exploits advanced machine learning coupled with the design and selection of appropriate features from EEG signals. Results, from evaluating ASPPR independently on 21 different patients, suggest that seizures for many patients can be predicted up to 20 minutes in advance of their onset. Compared to benchmark performance represented by a mean S1-Score (harmonic mean of Sensitivity and Specificity) of 90.6% for predicting seizure onset between 0 and 5 minutes in advance, ASPPR achieves mean S1-Scores of: 96.30% for prediction between 1 and 6 minutes in advance, 96.13% for prediction between 8 and 13 minutes in advance, 94.5% for prediction between 14 and 19 minutes in advance, and 94.2% for prediction between 20 and 25 minutes in advance. PMID:24911316

Studying Precipitation Processes in WRF with Goddard Bulk Microphysics in Comparison with Other Microphysical Schemes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.K.; Shi, J.J.; Braun, S.; Simpson, J.; Chen, S.S.; Lang, S.; Hong, S.Y.; Thompson, G.; Peters-Lidard, C.

2009-01-01

A Goddard bulk microphysical parameterization is implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This bulk microphysical scheme has three different options, 2ICE (cloud ice & snow), 3ICE-graupel (cloud ice, snow & graupel) and 3ICE-hail (cloud ice, snow & hail). High-resolution model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of microphysical schemes on different weather events: a midlatitude linear convective system and an Atlantic hurricane. The results suggest that microphysics has a major impact on the organization and precipitation processes associated with a summer midlatitude convective line system. The Goddard 3ICE scheme with the cloud ice-snow-hail configuration agreed better with observations ill of rainfall intensity and having a narrow convective line than did simulations with the cloud ice-snow-graupel and cloud ice-snow (i.e., 2ICE) configurations. This is because the Goddard 3ICE-hail configuration has denser precipitating ice particles (hail) with very fast fall speeds (over 10 m/s) For an Atlantic hurricane case, the Goddard microphysical scheme (with 3ICE-hail, 3ICE-graupel and 2ICE configurations) had no significant impact on the track forecast but did affect the intensity slightly. The Goddard scheme is also compared with WRF's three other 3ICE bulk microphysical schemes: WSM6, Purdue-Lin and Thompson. For the summer midlatitude convective line system, all of the schemes resulted in simulated precipitation events that were elongated in southwest-northeast direction in qualitative agreement with the observed feature. However, the Goddard 3ICE-hail and Thompson schemes were closest to the observed rainfall intensities although the Goddard scheme simulated more heavy rainfall (over 48 mm/h). For the Atlantic hurricane case, none of the schemes had a significant impact on the track forecast; however, the simulated intensity using the Purdue-Lin scheme was much stronger than the other schemes. The vertical distributions of

A Comparison between Airborne and Mountaintop Cloud Microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, R.; Lowenthal, D. H.; Hallar, A. G.; McCubbin, I.; Avallone, L. M.; Mace, G. G.; Wang, Z.

2014-12-01

Complex terrain has a large impact on cloud dynamics and microphysics. Several studies have examined the microphysical details of orographically-enhanced clouds from either an aircraft or from a mountain top location. However, further research is needed to characterize the relationships between mountain top and airborne microphysical properties. During the winter of 2011, an airborne study, the Colorado Airborne Mixed-Phase Cloud Study (CAMPS), and a ground-based field campaign, the Storm Peak Lab (SPL) Cloud Property Validation Experiment (StormVEx) were conducted in the Park Range of the Colorado Rockies. The CAMPS study utilized the University of Wyoming King Air (UWKA) to provide airborne cloud microphysical and meteorological data on 29 flights totaling 98 flight hours over the Park Range from December 15, 2010 to February 28, 2011. The UWKA was equipped with instruments that measured both cloud droplet and ice crystal size distributions, liquid water content, total water content (vapor, liquid, and ice), and 3-dimensional wind speed and direction. The Wyoming Cloud Radar and Lidar were also deployed during the campaign. These measurements are used to characterize cloud structure upwind and above the Park Range. StormVEx measured cloud droplet, ice crystal, and aerosol size distributions at SPL, located on the west summit of Mt. Werner at 3220m MSL. The observations from SPL are used to determine mountain top cloud microphysical properties at elevations lower than the UWKA was able to sample in-situ. Comparisons showed that cloud microphysics aloft and at the surface were consistent with respect to snow growth processes while small crystal concentrations were routinely higher at the surface, suggesting ice nucleation near cloud base. The effects of aerosol concentrations and upwind stability on mountain top and downwind microphysics are considered.

Optimization of microphysics in the Unified Model, using the Micro-genetic algorithm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, J.; Lee, Y.; Lee, H.; Lee, J.; Joo, S.

2016-12-01

This study focuses on parameter optimization of microphysics in the Unified Model (UM) using the Micro-genetic algorithm (Micro-GA). We need the optimization of microphysics in UM. Because, Microphysics in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model is important to Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF). The Micro-GA searches for optimal parameters on the basis of fitness function. The five parameters are chosen. The target parameters include x1, x2 related to raindrop size distribution, Cloud-rain correlation coefficient, Surface droplet number and Droplet taper height. The fitness function is based on the skill score that is BIAS and Critical Successive Index (CSI). An interface between UM and Micro-GA is developed and applied to three precipitation cases in Korea. The cases are (ⅰ) heavy rainfall in the Southern area because of typhoon NAKRI, (ⅱ) heavy rainfall in the Youngdong area, and (ⅲ) heavy rainfall in the Seoul metropolitan area. When the optimized result is compared to the control result (using the UM default value, CNTL), the optimized result leads to improvements in precipitation forecast, especially for heavy rainfall of the late forecast time. Also, we analyze the skill score of precipitation forecasts in terms of various thresholds of CNTL, Optimized result, and experiments on each optimized parameter for five parameters. Generally, the improvement is maximized when the five optimized parameters are used simultaneously. Therefore, this study demonstrates the ability to improve Korean precipitation forecasts by optimizing microphysics in UM.

Precipitation in a boiling soup: is microphysics driving the statistical properties of intense turbulent convection?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parodi, A.; von Hardenberg, J.; Provenzale, A.

2012-04-01

Intense precipitation events are often associated with strong convective phenomena in the atmosphere. A deeper understanding of how microphysics affects the spatial and temporal variability of convective processes is relevant for many hydro-meteorological applications, such as the estimation of rainfall using remote sensing techniques and the ability to predict severe precipitation processes. In this paper, high-resolution simulations (0.1-1 km) of an atmosphere in radiative-convective equilibrium are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model by prescribing different microphysical parameterizations. The dependence of fine-scale spatio-temporal properties of convective structures on microphysical details are investigated and the simulation results are compared with the known properties of radar maps of precipitation fields. We analyze and discuss similarities and differences and, based also on previous results on the dependence of precipitation statistics on the raindrop terminal velocity, try to draw some general inferences.

Simultaneous Estimation of Microphysical Parameters and Atmospheric State Variables With Radar Data and Ensemble Square-root Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, M.; Xue, M.

2006-12-01

An important source of model error for convective-scale data assimilation and prediction is microphysical parameterization. This study investigates the possibility of estimating up to five fundamental microphysical parameters, which are closely involved in the definition of drop size distribution of microphysical species in a commonly used single-moment ice microphysics scheme, using radar observations and the ensemble Kalman filter method. The five parameters include the intercept parameters for rain, snow and hail/graupel, and the bulk densities of hail/graupel and snow. Parameter sensitivity and identifiability are first examined. The ensemble square-root Kalman filter (EnSRF) is employed for simultaneous state and parameter estimation. OSS experiments are performed for a model-simulated supercell storm, in which the five microphysical parameters are estimated individually or in different combinations starting from different initial guesses. When error exists in only one of the microphysical parameters, the parameter can be successfully estimated without exception. The estimation of multiple parameters is found to be less robust, with end results of estimation being sensitive to the realization of the initial parameter perturbation. This is believed to be because of the reduced parameter identifiability and the existence of non-unique solutions. The results of state estimation are, however, always improved when simultaneous parameter estimation is performed, even when the estimated parameters values are not accurate.

Improvements in sub-grid, microphysics averages using quadrature based approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhary, K.; Debusschere, B.; Larson, V. E.

2013-12-01

Sub-grid variability in microphysical processes plays a critical role in atmospheric climate models. In order to account for this sub-grid variability, Larson and Schanen (2013) propose placing a probability density function on the sub-grid cloud microphysics quantities, e.g. autoconversion rate, essentially interpreting the cloud microphysics quantities as a random variable in each grid box. Random sampling techniques, e.g. Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube, can be used to calculate statistics, e.g. averages, on the microphysics quantities, which then feed back into the model dynamics on the coarse scale. We propose an alternate approach using numerical quadrature methods based on deterministic sampling points to compute the statistical moments of microphysics quantities in each grid box. We have performed a preliminary test on the Kessler autoconversion formula, and, upon comparison with Latin Hypercube sampling, our approach shows an increased level of accuracy with a reduction in sample size by almost two orders of magnitude. Application to other microphysics processes is the subject of ongoing research.

A comparison between rate-and-state friction and microphysical models, based on numerical simulations of fault slip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Ende, M. P. A.; Chen, J.; Ampuero, J.-P.; Niemeijer, A. R.

2018-05-01

Rate-and-state friction (RSF) is commonly used for the characterisation of laboratory friction experiments, such as velocity-step tests. However, the RSF framework provides little physical basis for the extrapolation of these results to the scales and conditions of natural fault systems, and so open questions remain regarding the applicability of the experimentally obtained RSF parameters for predicting seismic cycle transients. As an alternative to classical RSF, microphysics-based models offer means for interpreting laboratory and field observations, but are generally over-simplified with respect to heterogeneous natural systems. In order to bridge the temporal and spatial gap between the laboratory and nature, we have implemented existing microphysical model formulations into an earthquake cycle simulator. Through this numerical framework, we make a direct comparison between simulations exhibiting RSF-controlled fault rheology, and simulations in which the fault rheology is dictated by the microphysical model. Even though the input parameters for the RSF simulation are directly derived from the microphysical model, the microphysics-based simulations produce significantly smaller seismic event sizes than the RSF-based simulation, and suggest a more stable fault slip behaviour. Our results reveal fundamental limitations in using classical rate-and-state friction for the extrapolation of laboratory results. The microphysics-based approach offers a more complete framework in this respect, and may be used for a more detailed study of the seismic cycle in relation to material properties and fault zone pressure-temperature conditions.

Active sensor synergy for arctic cloud microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Kaori; Okamoto, Hajime; Katagiri, Shuichiro; Shiobara, Masataka; Yabuki, Masanori; Takano, Toshiaki

2018-04-01

In this study, we focus on the retrieval of liquid and ice-phase cloud microphysics from spaceborne and ground-based lidar-cloud radar synergy. As an application of the cloud retrieval algorithm developed for the EarthCARE satellite mission (JAXA-ESA) [1], the derived statistics of cloud microphysical properties in high latitudes and their relation to the Arctic climate are investigated.

Improving the representation of mixed-phase cloud microphysics in the ICON-LEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonttila, Juha; Hoose, Corinna; Milbrandt, Jason; Morrison, Hugh

2017-04-01

The representation of ice-phase cloud microphysics in ICON-LEM (the Large-Eddy Model configuration of the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model) is improved by implementing the recently published Predicted Particle Properties (P3) scheme into the model. In the typical two-moment microphysical schemes, such as that previously used in ICON-LEM, ice-phase particles must be partitioned into several prescribed categories. It is inherently difficult to distinguish between categories such as graupel and hail based on just the particle size, yet this partitioning may significantly affect the simulation of convective clouds. The P3 scheme avoids the problems associated with predefined ice-phase categories that are inherent in traditional microphysics schemes by introducing the concept of "free" ice-phase categories, whereby the prognostic variables enable the prediction of a wide range of smoothly varying physical properties and hence particle types. To our knowledge, this is the first application of the P3 scheme in a large-eddy model with horizontal grid spacings on the order of 100 m. We will present results from ICON-LEM simulations with the new P3 scheme comprising idealized stratiform and convective cloud cases. We will also present real-case limited-area simulations focusing on the HOPE (HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment) intensive observation campaign. The results are compared with a matching set of simulations employing the two-moment scheme and the performance of the model is also evaluated against observations in the context of the HOPE simulations, comprising data from ground based remote sensing instruments.

Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Microphysics Within Winter Storms using Field Data and In Situ Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colle, Brian A.; Yu, Ruyi; Molthan, Andrew L.; Nesbitt, Stephen

2014-01-01

It is hypothesized that microphysical predictions have greater uncertainties/errors when there are complex interactions that result from mixedphased processes like riming. Use Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground validation studies in Ontario, Canada to verify and improve parameterizations

TRMM Common Microphysics Products: A Tool for Evaluating Spaceborne Precipitation Retrieval Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kingsmill, David E.; Yuter, Sandra E.; Hobbs, Peter V.; Rangno, Arthur L.; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Stith, Jeffrey L.; Bansemer, Aaron; Haggerty, Julie A.; Korolev, Alexei V.

2004-01-01

A customized product for analysis of microphysics data collected from aircraft during field campaigns in support of the TRMM program is described. These Common Microphysics Products (CMP's) are designed to aid in evaluation of TRMM spaceborne precipitation retrieval algorithms. Information needed for this purpose (e.g., particle size spectra and habit, liquid and ice water content) was derived using a common processing strategy on the wide variety of microphysical instruments and raw native data formats employed in the field campaigns. The CMP's are organized into an ASCII structure to allow easy access to the data for those less familiar with and without the tools to accomplish microphysical data processing. Detailed examples of the CMP show its potential and some of its limitations. This approach may be a first step toward developing a generalized microphysics format and an associated community-oriented, non-proprietary software package for microphysics data processing, initiatives that would likely broaden community access to and use of microphysics datasets.

Aerosol Effects on Microphysical Processes, Storm Structure, and Cold Pool Strength in Simulated Supercell Thunderstorms from VORTEX-2 and VORTEX-SE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, M.; Dawson, D. T., II; Baldwin, M. E.; Mansell, E. R.

2017-12-01

The cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration has been found to strongly affect microphysical, dynamical and thermodynamical processes in supercells and other deep convective storms. Moreover, recent simulation studies have shown aerosols effects differ between higher- and lower-CAPE environments. Owing to the known sensitivity of severe storms to microphysical differences, studying the impact of aerosols supercell storms different environments is of clear societal importance. Tornadic environments in the southwastern U.S. are generally characterized by lower magnitudes CAPE and deeper tropospheric moisture than those in the Great Plains. These two regions were the focus of Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX)-2 and VORTEX-Southeast (SE) field campaigns, respectively. In our study, we simulate several cases from VORTEX-2 and -SE with the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Model at 6 different CCN concentrations (100-3000 cm-3). We use NSSL 3-moment microphysics parameterization schemeto explicitly predict precipitation particle size distributions and microphysirocess rates. Overall, storms under the higher-CAPE VORTEX-2 environments are more sensitiveto the change of CCN than those under the lower-CAPE VORTEX-SE environments. Updraft volume decreases as CCN increases for the VORTEX-2 cases, whereas the opposite is true but with a much weaker trend for the VORTEX-SE cases. Moreover, the cold pool strength drops dramatically as CCN surpasses 1000 cm-3n the VORTEX-2 cases but barely changes for the VORTEX-SE cases. Through a microphysics budget analysis, we show the change of the importance of ice processes is key to the differing sensitivities. in the VORTEX-2 cases, deposition to ice nuclei, cloud drop freezing and rain drop freezing in the upper levels (5-11km) contribute more to latent heating since more rain and cloud drops are lifted above the freezing level due to stronger updrafts. For CCN concentration over 1000

Radar and microphysical characteristics of convective storms simulated from a numerical model using a new microphysical parameterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferrier, Brad S.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne

1991-01-01

The basic features of a new and improved bulk-microphysical parameterization capable of simulating the hydrometeor structure of convective systems in all types of large-scale environments (with minimal adjustment of coefficients) are studied. Reflectivities simulated from the model are compared with radar observations of an intense midlatitude convective system. Simulated reflectivities using the novel four-class ice scheme with a microphysical parameterization rain distribution at 105 min are illustrated. Preliminary results indicate that this new ice scheme works efficiently in simulating midlatitude continental storms.

Magnetic neutron star cooling and microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potekhin, A. Y.; Chabrier, G.

2018-01-01

Aims: We study the relative importance of several recent updates of microphysics input to the neutron star cooling theory and the effects brought about by superstrong magnetic fields of magnetars, including the effects of the Landau quantization in their crusts. Methods: We use a finite-difference code for simulation of neutron-star thermal evolution on timescales from hours to megayears with an updated microphysics input. The consideration of short timescales (≲1 yr) is made possible by a treatment of the heat-blanketing envelope without the quasistationary approximation inherent to its treatment in traditional neutron-star cooling codes. For the strongly magnetized neutron stars, we take into account the effects of Landau quantization on thermodynamic functions and thermal conductivities. We simulate cooling of ordinary neutron stars and magnetars with non-accreted and accreted crusts and compare the results with observations. Results: Suppression of radiative and conductive opacities in strongly quantizing magnetic fields and formation of a condensed radiating surface substantially enhance the photon luminosity at early ages, making the life of magnetars brighter but shorter. These effects together with the effect of strong proton superfluidity, which slows down the cooling of kiloyear-aged neutron stars, can explain thermal luminosities of about a half of magnetars without invoking heating mechanisms. Observed thermal luminosities of other magnetars are still higher than theoretical predictions, which implies heating, but the effects of quantizing magnetic fields and baryon superfluidity help to reduce the discrepancy.

Sensitivity of WRF precipitation on microphysical and boundary layer parameterizations during extreme events in Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pytharoulis, I.; Karagiannidis, A. F.; Brikas, D.; Katsafados, P.; Papadopoulos, A.; Mavromatidis, E.; Kotsopoulos, S.; Karacostas, T. S.

2010-09-01

Contemporary atmospheric numerical models contain a large number of physical parameterization schemes in order to represent the various atmospheric processes that take place in sub-grid scales. The choice of the proper combination of such schemes is a challenging task for research and particularly for operational purposes. This choice becomes a very important decision in cases of high impact weather in which the forecast errors and the concomitant societal impacts are expected to be large. Moreover, it is well known that one of the hardest tasks for numerical models is to predict precipitation with a high degree of accuracy. The use of complex and sophisticated schemes usually requires more computational time and resources, but it does not necessarily lead to better forecasts. The aim of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of the model predicted precipitation on the microphysical and boundary layer parameterizations during extreme events. The nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Advanced Research dynamic solver (WRF-ARW Version 3.1.1) is utilized. It is a flexible, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction system designed to operate in both research and operational mode in global and regional scales. Nine microphysical and two boundary layer schemes are combined in the sensitivity experiments. The 9 microphysical schemes are: i) Lin, ii) WRF Single Moment 5-classes, iii) Ferrier new Eta, iv) WRF Single Moment 6-classes, v) Goddard, vi) New Thompson V3.1, vii) WRF Double Moment 5-classes, viii) WRF Double Moment 6-classes, ix) Morrison. The boundary layer is parameterized using the schemes of: i) Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and ii) Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) level 2.5. The model is integrated at very high horizontal resolution (2 km x 2 km in the area of interest) utilizing 38 vertical levels. Three cases of high impact weather in Eastern Mediterranean, associated with strong synoptic scale forcing, are employed in the

Potential Retrieval of Aerosol Microphysics From Multistatic Space-Borne Lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levitan, Nathaniel; Gross, Barry; Moshary, Fred; Wu, Yonghua

2018-04-01

HSRL lidars are being considered for deployment to space to retrieve aerosol microphysics. The literature is mostly focused on the monostatic configuration; but, in this paper, we explore whether additional information for the retrieval of microphysics can be obtained by adding a second detector in a bistatic configuration. The information gained from the additional measurements can under certain conditions reduce the ill-posed nature of aerosol microphysics retrieval and reducing the uncertainty in the retrievals.

Insights on TTL Dehydration Mechanisms from Microphysical Modelling of Aircraft Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ueyama, R.; Pfister, L.; Jensen, E.

2014-01-01

The Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL), a transition layer between the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the tropics, serves as the entryway of various trace gases into the stratosphere. Of particular interest is the transport of water vapor through the TTL, as WV is an important greenhouse gas and also plays a significant role in stratospheric chemistry by affecting polar stratospheric cloud formation and the ozone budget. While the dominant control of stratospheric water vapor by tropical cold point temperatures via the "freeze-drying" process is generally well understood, the details of the TTL dehydration mechanisms, including the relative roles of deep convection, atmospheric waves and cloud microphysical processes, remain an active area of research. The dynamical and microphysical processes that influence TTL water vapor concentrations are investigated in simulations of cloud formation and dehydration along air parcel trajectories. We first confirm the validity of our Lagrangian models in a case study involving measurements from the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) flights over the central and eastern tropical Pacific in Oct-Nov 2011 and Jan-Feb 2013. ERA-Interim winds and seasonal mean heating rates from Yang et al. (2010) are used to advance parcels back in time from the flight tracks, and time-varying vertical profiles of water vapor along the diabatic trajectories are calculated in a one-dimensional cloud model as in Jensen and Pfister (2004) but with more reliable temperature field, wave and convection schemes. The simulated water vapor profiles demonstrate a significant improvement over estimates based on the Lagrangian Dry Point, agreeing well with aircraft observations when the effects of cloud microphysics, subgrid-scale gravity waves and convection are included. Following this approach, we examine the dynamical and microphysical control of TTL water vapor in the 30ºS-30ºN latitudinal belt and elucidate the dominant processes

Particle backscatter and relative humidity measured across cirrus clouds and comparison with microphysical cirrus modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brabec, M.; Wienhold, F. G.; Luo, B. P.; Vömel, H.; Immler, F.; Steiner, P.; Hausammann, E.; Weers, U.; Peter, T.

2012-10-01

Advanced measurement and modelling techniques are employed to estimate the partitioning of atmospheric water between the gas phase and the condensed phase in and around cirrus clouds, and thus to identify in-cloud and out-of-cloud supersaturations with respect to ice. In November 2008 the newly developed balloon-borne backscatter sonde COBALD (Compact Optical Backscatter and AerosoL Detector) was flown 14 times together with a CFH (Cryogenic Frost point Hygrometer) from Lindenberg, Germany (52° N, 14° E). The case discussed here in detail shows two cirrus layers with in-cloud relative humidities with respect to ice between 50% and 130%. Global operational analysis data of ECMWF (roughly 1° × 1° horizontal and 1 km vertical resolution, 6-hourly stored fields) fail to represent ice water contents and relative humidities. Conversely, regional COSMO-7 forecasts (6.6 km × 6.6 km, 5-min stored fields) capture the measured humidities and cloud positions remarkably well. The main difference between ECMWF and COSMO data is the resolution of small-scale vertical features responsible for cirrus formation. Nevertheless, ice water contents in COSMO-7 are still off by factors 2-10, likely reflecting limitations in COSMO's ice phase bulk scheme. Significant improvements can be achieved by comprehensive size-resolved microphysical and optical modelling along backward trajectories based on COSMO-7 wind and temperature fields, which allow accurate computation of humidities, homogeneous ice nucleation, resulting ice particle size distributions and backscatter ratios at the COBALD wavelengths. However, only by superimposing small-scale temperature fluctuations, which remain unresolved by the numerical weather prediction models, can we obtain a satisfying agreement with the observations and reconcile the measured in-cloud non-equilibrium humidities with conventional ice cloud microphysics. Conversely, the model-data comparison provides no evidence that additional changes to ice

Depolarization Lidar Determination Of Cloud-Base Microphysical Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, D. P.; Klein Baltink, H.; Henzing, J. S.; de Roode, S.; Siebesma, A. P.

2016-06-01

The links between multiple-scattering induced depolarization and cloud microphysical properties (e.g. cloud particle number density, effective radius, water content) have long been recognised. Previous efforts to use depolarization information in a quantitative manner to retrieve cloud microphysical cloud properties have also been undertaken but with limited scope and, arguably, success. In this work we present a retrieval procedure applicable to liquid stratus clouds with (quasi-)linear LWC profiles and (quasi-)constant number density profiles in the cloud-base region. This set of assumptions allows us to employ a fast and robust inversion procedure based on a lookup-table approach applied to extensive lidar Monte-Carlo multiple-scattering calculations. An example validation case is presented where the results of the inversion procedure are compared with simultaneous cloud radar observations. In non-drizzling conditions it was found, in general, that the lidar- only inversion results can be used to predict the radar reflectivity within the radar calibration uncertainty (2-3 dBZ). Results of a comparison between ground-based aerosol number concentration and lidar-derived cloud base number considerations are also presented. The observed relationship between the two quantities is seen to be consistent with the results of previous studies based on aircraft-based in situ measurements.

Acid rain: Microphysical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dingle, A. N.

1980-01-01

A microphysical model was used to simulate the case of a ground cloud without dilution by entrainment and without precipitation. The numerical integration techniques of the model are presented. The droplet size spectra versus time and the droplet molalities for each value of time are discussed.

Effects of Wildfire Pollution on the Microphysical and Electrical Properties of Pyrocumulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duff, R.; Grant, L. D.; van den Heever, S. C.

2014-12-01

Pyrocumulus clouds form over wildfires when hot, smoke-filled air rises, cools and condenses. These clouds have higher cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations, which affect their microphysical and electrical properties. It is important to better understand pyrocumulus cloud microphysical characteristics and lightning formation, which have implications for the prediction of wildfire growth as well as the radiative and chemical characteristics of the upper troposphere. A recent observational study documented an electrified pyrocumulus over the May 2012 Hewlett Gulch fire located to the west of Fort Collins, Colorado. This cloud produced approximately 20 intracloud lightning flashes, and its electrical activity differed from surrounding convection that was not directly impacted by the fire and associated smoke. The goal of this research is to investigate aerosol-induced cloud-scale microphysical differences between clean clouds and polluted pyrocumulus to better characterize the mechanisms that cause pyrocumulus electrification. In order to address this goal, idealized cloud-resolving model simulations were performed using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The model environment was initialized with an average of the 12Z 16 May and 00Z 17 May 2012 observed Denver soundings to represent the conditions when the Hewlett Gulch pyrocumulus occurred. Five simulations were performed using surface aerosol concentrations from 100 to 5000 #/mg. The results demonstrate that in moderately polluted pyrocumulus, rain processes are suppressed while graupel production increases. Extremely polluted pyrocumulus, however, experience a complete shut-down of graupel production, which favors the production of large amounts of liquid water and smaller ice species such as ice crystals and snowflakes. The processes responsible for these microphysical changes, as well as inferred pyrocumulus electrification mechanisms, will be compared with those discussed in previous

Stratospheric Heterogeneous Chemistry and Microphysics: Model Development, Validation and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, Richard P.

1996-01-01

being systematically evaluated to identify the principal relationships between ozone loss and aerosol state. Under this project, we formulated a detailed quantitative model that predicts the multicomponent composition of sulfate aerosols under stratospheric conditions, including sulfuric, nitric, hydrochloric, hydrofluoric and hydrobromic acids. This work defined for the first time the behavior of liquid ternary-system type-1b PSCS. The model also allows the compositions and reactivities of sulfate aerosols to be calculated over the entire range of environmental conditions encountered in the stratosphere (and has been incorporated into a trajectory/microphysics model-see above). Important conclusions that derived from this work over the last few years include the following: the HNO3 content of liquid-state aerosols dominate PSCs below about 195 K; the freezing of nitric acid ice from sulfate aerosol solutions is likely to occur within a few degrees K of the water vapor frost point; the uptake and reactions of HCl in liquid aerosols is a critical component of PSC heterogeneous chemistry. In a related application of this work, the inefficiency of chlorine injection into the stratosphere during major volcanic eruptions was explained on the basis of nucleation of sulfuric acid aerosols in rising volcanic plumes leading to the formation of supercooled water droplets on these aerosols, which efficiently scavenges HCl via precipitation.

Re-formulation and Validation of Cloud Microphysics Schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Georgakakos, K. P.

2007-12-01

The research focuses on improving quantitative precipitation forecasts by removing significant uncertainties in current cloud microphysics schemes embedded in models such as WRF and MM5 and cloud-resolving models such as GCE. Reformulation of several production terms in these microphysics schemes was found necessary. When estimating four graupel production terms involved in the accretion between rain, snow and graupel, current microphysics schemes assumes that all raindrops and snow particles are falling at their appropriate mass-weighted mean terminal velocities and thus analytic solutions are able to be found for these production terms. Initial analysis and tests showed that these approximate analytic solutions give significant and systematic overestimates of these terms, and, thus, become one of major error sources of the graupel overproduction and associated extreme radar reflectivity in simulations. These results are corroborated by several reports. For example, the analytic solution overestimates the graupel production by collisions between raindrops and snow by up to 230%. The structure of "pure" snow (not rimed) and "pure graupel" (completely rimed) in current microphysics schemes excludes intermediate forms between "pure" snow and "pure" graupel and thus becomes a significant reason of graupel overproduction in hydrometeor simulations. In addition, the generation of the same density graupel by both the freezing of supercooled water and the riming of snow may cause underestimation of graupel production by freezing. A parameterization scheme of the riming degree of snow is proposed and then a dynamic fallspeed-diameter relationship and density- diameter relationship of rimed snow is assigned to graupel based on the diagnosed riming degree. To test if these new treatments can improve quantitative precipitation forecast, the Hurricane Katrina and a severe winter snowfall event in the Sierra Nevada Range are selected as case studies. A series of control

Vertical profile of fog microphysics : a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burnet, Frédéric; Brilouet, Pierre-Etienne; Mazoyer, Marie; Bourrianne, Thierry; Etcheberry, Jean-Michel; Gaillard, Brigitte; Legain, Dominique; Tzanos, Diane; Barrié, Joel; Barrau, Sébastien; Defoy, Stephan

2016-04-01

The occurrence and development of fogs result from the non-linear interaction of competing radiative, thermodynamic, microphysical and dynamical processes and the forecasting of their life cycle still remains a challenging issue. Several field campaigns have been carried out at the SIRTA observatory in the Paris suburb area (France). These experiments have shown that fog events exhibit large differences of the microphysical properties and various evolutions during their life cycle. To better understand relationships between the different processes and to validate numerical simulations it is necessary however to document the vertical profile of the fog microphysics. A CDP (Cloud Droplet Spectrometer) from DMT (Droplet Measurement Technology, Boulder, CO) has been modified to allow measurements of the droplet size distribution in fog layers with a tethered balloon. This instrumental set-up has been used during a field campaign during the winter 2013-214 in the Landes area in the South West of France. To validate the vertical profiles provided by the modified CDP, a mast was equipped with microphysical instruments at 2 altitude levels with an another CDP at 24 m and a Fog Monitor FM100 at 42 m. The instrumental set-up deployed during this campaign is presented. Data collected during a fog event that occurred during the night of 5-6 March 2014 are analysed. We show that microphysical properties such as droplet number concentration, LWC and mean droplet size, exhibit different time evolution during the fog life cycle depending on the altitude level. Droplet size distribution measurements are also investigated. They reveal sharp variations along the vertical close to the top of the fog layer. In addition it is shown that the shape of the size distributions at the top follows a time evolution typical of a quasi-adiabatic droplet growth.

Microphysics of Pyrocumulonimbus Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, Eric; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Fridlind, Ann

2004-01-01

The intense heat from forest fires can generate explosive deep convective cloud systems that inject pollutants to high altitudes. Both satellite and high-altitude aircraft measurements have documented cases in which these pyrocumulonimbus clouds inject large amounts of smoke well into the stratosphere (Fromm and Servranckx 2003; Jost et al. 2004). This smoke can remain in the stratosphere, be transported large distances, and affect lower stratospheric chemistry. In addition recent in situ measurements in pyrocumulus updrafts have shown that the high concentrations of smoke particles have significant impacts on cloud microphysical properties. Very high droplet number densities result in delayed precipitation and may enhance lightning (Andrew et al. 2004). Presumably, the smoke particles will also lead to changes in the properties of anvil cirrus produces by the deep convection, with resulting influences on cloud radiative forcing. In situ sampling near the tops of mature pyrocumulonimbus is difficult due to the high altitude and violence of the storms. In this study, we use large eddy simulations (LES) with size-resolved microphysics to elucidate physical processes in pyrocumulonimbus clouds.

A microphysics guide to cirrus clouds - Part 1: Cirrus types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krämer, Martina; Rolf, Christian; Luebke, Anna; Afchine, Armin; Spelten, Nicole; Costa, Anja; Meyer, Jessica; Zöger, Martin; Smith, Jessica; Herman, Robert L.; Buchholz, Bernhard; Ebert, Volker; Baumgardner, Darrel; Borrmann, Stephan; Klingebiel, Marcus; Avallone, Linnea

2016-03-01

The microphysical and radiative properties of cirrus clouds continue to be beyond understanding and thus still represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of the Earth's climate (IPCC, 2013). Our study aims to provide a guide to cirrus microphysics, which is compiled from an extensive set of model simulations, covering the broad range of atmospheric conditions for cirrus formation and evolution. The model results are portrayed in the same parameter space as field measurements, i.e., in the Ice Water Content-Temperature (IWC-T) parameter space. We validate this cirrus analysis approach by evaluating cirrus data sets from 17 aircraft campaigns, conducted in the last 15 years, spending about 94 h in cirrus over Europe, Australia, Brazil as well as South and North America. Altogether, the approach of this study is to track cirrus IWC development with temperature by means of model simulations, compare with observations and then assign, to a certain degree, cirrus microphysics to the observations. Indeed, the field observations show characteristics expected from the simulated Cirrus Guide. For example, high (low) IWCs are found together with high (low) ice crystal concentrations Nice. An important finding from our study is the classification of two types of cirrus with differing formation mechanisms and microphysical properties: the first cirrus type forms directly as ice (in situ origin cirrus) and splits in two subclasses, depending on the prevailing strength of the updraft: in slow updrafts these cirrus are rather thin with lower IWCs, while in fast updrafts thicker cirrus with higher IWCs can form. The second type consists predominantly of thick cirrus originating from mixed phase clouds (i.e., via freezing of liquid droplets - liquid origin cirrus), which are completely glaciated while lifting to the cirrus formation temperature region (< 235 K). In the European field campaigns, slow updraft in situ origin cirrus occur frequently in low- and high

Modelling ice microphysics of mixed-phase clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahola, J.; Raatikainen, T.; Tonttila, J.; Romakkaniemi, S.; Kokkola, H.; Korhonen, H.

2017-12-01

The low-level Arctic mixed-phase clouds have a significant role for the Arctic climate due to their ability to absorb and reflect radiation. Since the climate change is amplified in polar areas, it is vital to apprehend the mixed-phase cloud processes. From a modelling point of view, this requires a high spatiotemporal resolution to capture turbulence and the relevant microphysical processes, which has shown to be difficult.In order to solve this problem about modelling mixed-phase clouds, a new ice microphysics description has been developed. The recently published large-eddy simulation cloud model UCLALES-SALSA offers a good base for a feasible solution (Tonttila et al., Geosci. Mod. Dev., 10:169-188, 2017). The model includes aerosol-cloud interactions described with a sectional SALSA module (Kokkola et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 2469-2483, 2008), which represents a good compromise between detail and computational expense.Newly, the SALSA module has been upgraded to include also ice microphysics. The dynamical part of the model is based on well-known UCLA-LES model (Stevens et al., J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3963-3984, 1999) which can be used to study cloud dynamics on a fine grid.The microphysical description of ice is sectional and the included processes consist of formation, growth and removal of ice and snow particles. Ice cloud particles are formed by parameterized homo- or heterogeneous nucleation. The growth mechanisms of ice particles and snow include coagulation and condensation of water vapor. Autoconversion from cloud ice particles to snow is parameterized. The removal of ice particles and snow happens by sedimentation and melting.The implementation of ice microphysics is tested by initializing the cloud simulation with atmospheric observations from the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC). The results are compared to the model results shown in the paper of Ovchinnikov et al. (J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, 223-248, 2014) and they show a good

Arctic biomass burning aerosol event-microphysical property retrieval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böckmann, Christine; Ritter, Christoph; Ortiz-Amezcua, Pablo

2018-04-01

An intense biomass-burning (BB) event from North America in July 2015 was observed over Ny-Ålesund (Spitsbergen, European Arctic). An extreme air pollution took place and aerosol optical depth (AOD) of more than 1 at 500nm occurs in middle and lower troposphere. We analyse data from the multi-wavelength Raman-lidar KARL of Alfred Wegener Institute to derive microphysical properties of the aerosol of one interesting layer from 3186 to 3306 m via regularization. We found credible and confidential microphysical parameters.

Diurnal Variation of Tropical Ice Cloud Microphysics: Evidence from Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager Polarimetric Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Jie; Zeng, Xiping; Wu, Dong L.; Li, Xiaowen

2018-01-01

The diurnal variation of tropical ice clouds has been well observed and examined in terms of the occurring frequency and total mass but rarely from the viewpoint of ice microphysical parameters. It accounts for a large portion of uncertainties in evaluating ice clouds' role on global radiation and hydrological budgets. Owing to the advantage of precession orbit design and paired polarized observations at a high-frequency microwave band that is particularly sensitive to ice particle microphysical properties, 3 years of polarimetric difference (PD) measurements using the 166 GHz channel of Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GPM-GMI) are compiled to reveal a strong diurnal cycle over tropical land (30°S-30°N) with peak amplitude varying up to 38%. Since the PD signal is dominantly determined by ice crystal size, shape, and orientation, the diurnal cycle observed by GMI can be used to infer changes in ice crystal properties. Moreover, PD change is found to lead the diurnal changes of ice cloud occurring frequency and total ice mass by about 2 h, which strongly implies that understanding ice microphysics is critical to predict, infer, and model ice cloud evolution and precipitation processes.

Atmospheric microphysical experiments on an orbital platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eaton, L. R.

1974-01-01

The Zero-Gravity Atmospheric Cloud Physics Laboratory is a Shuttle/Spacelab payload which will be capable of performing a large range of microphysics experiments. This facility will complement terrestrial cloud physics research by allowing many experiments to be performed which cannot be accomplished within the confines of a terrestrial laboratory. This paper reviews the general Cloud Physics Laboratory concept and the experiment scope. The experimental constraints are given along with details of the proposed equipment. Examples of appropriate experiments range from three-dimensional simulation of the earth and planetary atmosphere and of ocean circulation to cloud electrification processes and the effects of atmospheric pollution materials on microphysical processes.

Evaluating the Performance of Single and Double Moment Microphysics Schemes During a Synoptic-Scale Snowfall Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.

2011-01-01

Increases in computing resources have allowed for the utilization of high-resolution weather forecast models capable of resolving cloud microphysical and precipitation processes among varying numbers of hydrometeor categories. Several microphysics schemes are currently available within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, ranging from single-moment predictions of precipitation content to double-moment predictions that include a prediction of particle number concentrations. Each scheme incorporates several assumptions related to the size distribution, shape, and fall speed relationships of ice crystals in order to simulate cold-cloud processes and resulting precipitation. Field campaign data offer a means of evaluating the assumptions present within each scheme. The Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) represented collaboration among the CloudSat, CALIPSO, and NASA Global Precipitation Measurement mission communities, to observe cold season precipitation processes relevant to forecast model evaluation and the eventual development of satellite retrievals of cloud properties and precipitation rates. During the C3VP campaign, widespread snowfall occurred on 22 January 2007, sampled by aircraft and surface instrumentation that provided particle size distributions, ice water content, and fall speed estimations along with traditional surface measurements of temperature and precipitation. In this study, four single-moment and two double-moment microphysics schemes were utilized to generate hypothetical WRF forecasts of the event, with C3VP data used in evaluation of their varying assumptions. Schemes that incorporate flexibility in size distribution parameters and density assumptions are shown to be preferable to fixed constants, and that a double-moment representation of the snow category may be beneficial when representing the effects of aggregation. These results may guide forecast centers in optimal configurations of their forecast models

Parameterizing microphysical effects on variances and covariances of moisture and heat content using a multivariate probability density function: a study with CLUBB (tag MVCS)

DOE PAGES

Griffin, Brian M.; Larson, Vincent E.

2016-11-25

Microphysical processes, such as the formation, growth, and evaporation of precipitation, interact with variability and covariances (e.g., fluxes) in moisture and heat content. For instance, evaporation of rain may produce cold pools, which in turn may trigger fresh convection and precipitation. These effects are usually omitted or else crudely parameterized at subgrid scales in weather and climate models.A more formal approach is pursued here, based on predictive, horizontally averaged equations for the variances, covariances, and fluxes of moisture and heat content. These higher-order moment equations contain microphysical source terms. The microphysics terms can be integrated analytically, given a suitably simplemore » warm-rain microphysics scheme and an approximate assumption about the multivariate distribution of cloud-related and precipitation-related variables. Performing the integrations provides exact expressions within an idealized context.A large-eddy simulation (LES) of a shallow precipitating cumulus case is performed here, and it indicates that the microphysical effects on (co)variances and fluxes can be large. In some budgets and altitude ranges, they are dominant terms. The analytic expressions for the integrals are implemented in a single-column, higher-order closure model. Interactive single-column simulations agree qualitatively with the LES. The analytic integrations form a parameterization of microphysical effects in their own right, and they also serve as benchmark solutions that can be compared to non-analytic integration methods.« less

What can the CMB tell about the microphysics of cosmic reheating?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drewes, Marco, E-mail: marcodrewes@googlemail.com

In inflationary cosmology, cosmic reheating after inflation sets the initial conditions for the hot big bang. We investigate how CMB data can be used to study the effective potential and couplings of the inflaton during reheating to constrain the underlying microphysics. If there is a phase of preheating that is driven by a parametric resonance or other instability, then the thermal history and expansion history during the reheating era depend on a large number of microphysical parameters in a complicated way. In this case the connection between CMB observables and microphysical parameters can only established with intense numerical studies. Suchmore » studies can help to improve CMB constraints on the effective inflaton potential in specific models, but parameter degeneracies usually make it impossible to extract meaningful best-fit values for individual microphysical parameters. If, on the other hand, reheating is driven by perturbative processes, then it can be possible to constrain the inflaton couplings and the reheating temperature from CMB data. This provides an indirect probe of fundamental microphysical parameters that most likely can never be measured directly in the laboratory, but have an immense impact on the evolution of the cosmos by setting the stage for the hot big bang.« less

Evaluation of Unified Model Microphysics in High-resolution NWP Simulations Using Polarimetric Radar Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Marcus; Jung, Youngsun; Dawson, Daniel; Supinie, Timothy; Xue, Ming; Park, Jongsook; Lee, Yong-Hee

2018-07-01

The UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) is employed by many weather forecasting agencies around the globe. This model is designed to run across spatial and time scales and known to produce skillful predictions for large-scale weather systems. However, the model has only recently begun running operationally at horizontal grid spacings of ˜1.5 km [e.g., at the UK Met Office and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)]. As its microphysics scheme was originally designed and tuned for large-scale precipitation systems, we investigate the performance of UM microphysics to determine potential inherent biases or weaknesses. Two rainfall cases from the KMA forecasting system are considered in this study: a Changma (quasi-stationary) front, and Typhoon Sanba (2012). The UM output is compared to polarimetric radar observations in terms of simulated polarimetric radar variables. Results show that the UM generally underpredicts median reflectivity in stratiform rain, producing high reflectivity cores and precipitation gaps between them. This is partially due to the diagnostic rain intercept parameter formulation used in the one-moment microphysics scheme. Model drop size is generally both underand overpredicted compared to observations. UM frozen hydrometeors favor generic ice (crystals and snow) rather than graupel, which is reasonable for Changma and typhoon cases. The model performed best with the typhoon case in terms of simulated precipitation coverage.

Structural and parameteric uncertainty quantification in cloud microphysics parameterization schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Lier-Walqui, M.; Morrison, H.; Kumjian, M. R.; Prat, O. P.; Martinkus, C.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric model parameterization schemes employ approximations to represent the effects of unresolved processes. These approximations are a source of error in forecasts, caused in part by considerable uncertainty about the optimal value of parameters within each scheme -- parameteric uncertainty. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding the best choice of the overarching structure of the parameterization scheme -- structrual uncertainty. Parameter estimation can constrain the first, but may struggle with the second because structural choices are typically discrete. We address this problem in the context of cloud microphysics parameterization schemes by creating a flexible framework wherein structural and parametric uncertainties can be simultaneously constrained. Our scheme makes no assuptions about drop size distribution shape or the functional form of parametrized process rate terms. Instead, these uncertainties are constrained by observations using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler within a Bayesian inference framework. Our scheme, the Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme (BOSS), has flexibility to predict various sets of prognostic drop size distribution moments as well as varying complexity of process rate formulations. We compare idealized probabilistic forecasts from versions of BOSS with varying levels of structural complexity. This work has applications in ensemble forecasts with model physics uncertainty, data assimilation, and cloud microphysics process studies.

Microphysical and Radiative Characteristics of Convective Clouds during COHMEX.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, Richard; Heymsfield, Gerald M.

1991-01-01

The use of passive remote microwave radiance measurements above cloud tops for rainrate estimation is complicated by the complex nature of cloud microphysics. The knowledge of the microphysical structure of clouds, specifically the hydrometeor types, shapes, sizes, and their vertical distribution, is important because radiative emission and scattering effects are dependent upon the hydrometeor distribution. This paper has two purposes: first, to document the structure and evolution of two strong thunderstorms in Alabama using radar multiparameter data; and second, to relate the inferred microphysics to the resulting upwelling microwave radiance observed concurrently by high altitude aircraft. These measurements were collected during the COHMEX field program in the summer of 1986. The radar analysis includes a description of the parameters reflectivity Z, differential reflectivity ZDR, linear depolarization ratio LDR, and hail signal HS for two thunderstorm cases on 11 July 1986. The simultaneous aircraft data includes passive microwave brightness temperature (TB) measurements at four frequencies ranging from 18 to 183 GHz as well as visible and infrared data.The remote radar observations reveal the existence of large ice particles within the storms which is likely to have caused the observed low microwave brightness temperatures. By relating the evolution of the radar measureables to the microwave TB's it has been found that knowledge of the storm microphysics and its evolution is important to adequately understand the microwave TB's.

Development of GK-2A cloud optical and microphysical properties retrieval algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Yum, S. S.; Um, J.

2017-12-01

Cloud and aerosol radiative forcing is known to be one of the the largest uncertainties in climate change prediction. To reduce this uncertainty, remote sensing observation of cloud radiative and microphysical properties have been used since 1970s and the corresponding remote sensing techniques and instruments have been developed. As a part of such effort, Geo-KOMPSAT-2A (Geostationary Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite-2A, GK-2A) will be launched in 2018. On the GK-2A, the Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) is primary instrument which have 3 visible, 3 near-infrared, and 10 infrared channels. To retrieve optical and microphysical properties of clouds using AMI measurements, the preliminary version of new cloud retrieval algorithm for GK-2A was developed and several validation tests were conducted. This algorithm retrieves cloud optical thickness (COT), cloud effective radius (CER), liquid water path (LWP), and ice water path (IWP), so we named this algorithm as Daytime Cloud Optical thickness, Effective radius and liquid and ice Water path (DCOEW). The DCOEW uses cloud reflectance at visible and near-infrared channels as input data. An optimal estimation (OE) approach that requires appropriate a-priori values and measurement error information is used to retrieve COT and CER. LWP and IWP are calculated using empirical relationships between COT/CER and cloud water path that were determined previously. To validate retrieved cloud properties, we compared DCOEW output data with other operational satellite data. For COT and CER validation, we used two different data sets. To compare algorithms that use cloud reflectance at visible and near-IR channels as input data, MODIS MYD06 cloud product was selected. For the validation with cloud products that are based on microwave measurements, COT(2B-TAU)/CER(2C-ICE) data retrieved from CloudSat cloud profiling radar (W-band, 94 GHz) was used. For cloud water path validation, AMSR-2 Level-3 Cloud liquid water data was used

Aerosol and Cloud Microphysical Properties in the Asir region of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axisa, Duncan; Kucera, Paul; Burger, Roelof; Li, Runjun; Collins, Don; Freney, Evelyn; Posada, Rafael; Buseck, Peter

2010-05-01

In recent advertent and inadvertent weather modification studies, a considerable effort has been made to understand the impact of varying aerosol properties and concentration on cloud properties. Significant uncertainties exist with aerosol-cloud interactions for which complex microphysical processes link the aerosol and cloud properties. Under almost all environmental conditions, increased aerosol concentrations within polluted air masses will enhance cloud droplet concentration relative to that in unperturbed regions. The interaction between dust particles and clouds are significant, yet the conditions in which dust particles become cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are uncertain. In order to quantify this aerosol effect on clouds and precipitation, a field campaign was launched in the Asir region of Saudi Arabia as part of a Precipitation Enhancement Feasibility Study. Ground measurements of aerosol size distributions, hygroscopic growth factor, CCN concentrations as well as aircraft measurements of cloud hydrometeor size distributions were done in the Asir region of Saudi Arabia in August 2009. Research aircraft operations focused primarily on conducting measurements in clouds that are targeted for cloud top-seeding, on their microphysical characterization, especially the preconditions necessary for precipitation; understanding the evolution of droplet coalescence, supercooled liquid water, cloud ice and precipitation hydrometeors is necessary if advances are to be made in the study of cloud modification by cloud seeding. Non-precipitating mixed-phase clouds less than 3km in diameter that developed on top of the stable inversion were characterized by flying at the convective cloud top just above the inversion. Aerosol measurements were also done during the climb to cloud base height. The presentation will include a summary of the analysis and results with a focus on the unique features of the Asir region in producing convective clouds, characterization of the

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOX Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carey, Lawrence; Koshak, William; Peterson, Harold; Matthee, Retha; Bain, A. Lamont

2014-01-01

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TM) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell

Cloud Microphysics and Absorption Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, Steven

2002-01-01

Vertical distributions of particle size and habit were developed from in-situ data collected from three midlatitude cirrus field campaigns (FIRE-1, FIRE-2, and ARM IOP). These new midlatitude microphysical models were used to develop new cirrus scattering models at a number of wavelengths appropriate for use with the MODIS imager (Nasiri et al. 2002). This was the first successful collaborative effort between all the investigators on this proposal. Recent efforts have extended the midlatitude cirrus cloud analyses to tropical cirrus, using in-situ data collected during the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Kwajalein field campaign in 1999. We note that there are critical aspects to the work: a) Improvement in computing the scattering and radiative properties of ice crystals; b) Requirement for copious amounts of cirrus in-situ data, presented in terms of both particle size and habit distributions; c) Development of cirrus microphysical and optical models for various satellite, aircraft, and ground-based instruments based on the theoretical calculations and in-situ measurements; d) Application to satellite data.

Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) architecture optimization strategies for a memory-bound Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Goddard microphysics scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mielikainen, Jarno; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen H.

2014-10-01

The Goddard cloud microphysics scheme is a sophisticated cloud microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF is a widely used weather prediction system in the world. It development is a done in collaborative around the globe. The Goddard microphysics scheme is very suitable for massively parallel computation as there are no interactions among horizontal grid points. Compared to the earlier microphysics schemes, the Goddard scheme incorporates a large number of improvements. Thus, we have optimized the code of this important part of WRF. In this paper, we present our results of optimizing the Goddard microphysics scheme on Intel Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) hardware. The Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor is the first product based on Intel MIC architecture, and it consists of up to 61 cores connected by a high performance on-die bidirectional interconnect. The Intel MIC is capable of executing a full operating system and entire programs rather than just kernels as the GPU do. The MIC coprocessor supports all important Intel development tools. Thus, the development environment is familiar one to a vast number of CPU developers. Although, getting a maximum performance out of MICs will require using some novel optimization techniques. Those optimization techniques are discusses in this paper. The results show that the optimizations improved performance of the original code on Xeon Phi 7120P by a factor of 4.7x. Furthermore, the same optimizations improved performance on a dual socket Intel Xeon E5-2670 system by a factor of 2.8x compared to the original code.

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, J.; Baker, D.; Braun, S.; Chou, M.-D.; Ferrier, B.; Johnson, D.; Khain, A.; Lang, S.; Lynn, B.

2001-01-01

The response of cloud systems to their environment is an important link in a chain of processes responsible for monsoons, frontal depression, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes and other climate variations (e.g., 30-60 day intra-seasonal oscillations). Numerical models of cloud properties provide essential insights into the interactions of clouds with each other, with their surroundings, and with land and ocean surfaces. Significant advances are currently being made in the modeling of rainfall and rain-related cloud processes, ranging in scales from the very small up to the simulation of an extensive population of raining cumulus clouds in a tropical- or midlatitude-storm environment. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a multi-dimensional nonhydrostatic dynamic/microphysical cloud resolving model. It has been used to simulate many different mesoscale convective systems that occurred in various geographic locations. In this paper, recent GCE model improvements (microphysics, radiation and surface processes) will be described as well as their impact on the development of precipitation events from various geographic locations. The performance of these new physical processes will be examined by comparing the model results with observations. In addition, the explicit interactive processes between cloud, radiation and surface processes will be discussed.

Improving Representation of Convective Transport for Scale-Aware Parameterization – Part I: Convection and Cloud Properties Simulated with Spectral Bin and Bulk Microphysics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Jiwen; Liu, Yi-Chin; Xu, Kuan-Man

2015-04-27

The ultimate goal of this study is to improve representation of convective transport by cumulus parameterization for meso-scale and climate models. As Part I of the study, we perform extensive evaluations of cloud-resolving simulations of a squall line and mesoscale convective complexes in mid-latitude continent and tropical regions using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) and with two double-moment bulk microphysics schemes: a modified Morrison (MOR) and Milbrandt and Yau (MY2). Compared to observations, in general, SBM gives better simulations of precipitation, vertical velocity of convective cores, and the vertically decreasing trend of radar reflectivitymore » than MOR and MY2, and therefore will be used for analysis of scale-dependence of eddy transport in Part II. The common features of the simulations for all convective systems are (1) the model tends to overestimate convection intensity in the middle and upper troposphere, but SBM can alleviate much of the overestimation and reproduce the observed convection intensity well; (2) the model greatly overestimates radar reflectivity in convective cores (SBM predicts smaller radar reflectivity but does not remove the large overestimation); and (3) the model performs better for mid-latitude convective systems than tropical system. The modeled mass fluxes of the mid latitude systems are not sensitive to microphysics schemes, but are very sensitive for the tropical case indicating strong microphysics modification to convection. Cloud microphysical measurements of rain, snow and graupel in convective cores will be critically important to further elucidate issues within cloud microphysics schemes.« less

Numerical Study of the Role of Microphysical Latent Heating and Surface Heat Fluxes in a Severe Precipitation Event in the Warm Sector over Southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jin-Fang; Wang, Dong-Hai; Liang, Zhao-Ming; Liu, Chong-Jian; Zhai, Guo-Qing; Wang, Hong

2018-02-01

Simulations of the severe precipitation event that occurred in the warm sector over southern China on 08 May 2014 are conducted using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARWv3.5.1) model to investigate the roles of microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes during the severe precipitation processes. At first, observations from surface rain gauges and ground-based weather radars are used to evaluate the model outputs. Results show that the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation is well reproduced, and the temporal and spatial distributions of the simulated radar reflectivity agree well with the observations. Then, several sensitive simulations are performed with the identical model configurations, except for different options in microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes. From the results, one of the significant findings is that the latent heating from warm rain microphysical processes heats the atmosphere in the initial phase of the precipitation and thus convective systems start by self-triggering and self-organizing, despite the fact that the environmental conditions are not favorable to the occurrence of precipitation event at the initial phase. In the case of the severe precipitation event over the warm sector, both warm and ice microphysical processes are active with the ice microphysics processes activated almost two hours later. According to the sensitive results, there is a very weak precipitation without heavy rainfall belt when microphysical latent heating is turned off. In terms of this precipitation event, the warm microphysics processes play significant roles on precipitation intensity, while the ice microphysics processes have effects on the spatial distribution of precipitation. Both surface sensible and latent heating have effects on the precipitation intensity and spatial distribution. By comparison, the surface sensible heating has a strong influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation

Introducing Convective Cloud Microphysics to a Deep Convection Parameterization Facilitating Aerosol Indirect Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alapaty, K.; Zhang, G. J.; Song, X.; Kain, J. S.; Herwehe, J. A.

2012-12-01

Short lived pollutants such as aerosols play an important role in modulating not only the radiative balance but also cloud microphysical properties and precipitation rates. In the past, to understand the interactions of aerosols with clouds, several cloud-resolving modeling studies were conducted. These studies indicated that in the presence of anthropogenic aerosols, single-phase deep convection precipitation is reduced or suppressed. On the other hand, anthropogenic aerosol pollution led to enhanced precipitation for mixed-phase deep convective clouds. To date, there have not been many efforts to incorporate such aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in mesoscale models or global models that use parameterization schemes for deep convection. Thus, the objective of this work is to implement a diagnostic cloud microphysical scheme directly into a deep convection parameterization facilitating aerosol indirect effects in the WRF-CMAQ integrated modeling systems. Major research issues addressed in this study are: What is the sensitivity of a deep convection scheme to cloud microphysical processes represented by a bulk double-moment scheme? How close are the simulated cloud water paths as compared to observations? Does increased aerosol pollution lead to increased precipitation for mixed-phase clouds? These research questions are addressed by performing several WRF simulations using the Kain-Fritsch convection parameterization and a diagnostic cloud microphysical scheme. In the first set of simulations (control simulations) the WRF model is used to simulate two scenarios of deep convection over the continental U.S. during two summer periods at 36 km grid resolution. In the second set, these simulations are repeated after incorporating a diagnostic cloud microphysical scheme to study the impacts of inclusion of cloud microphysical processes. Finally, in the third set, aerosol concentrations simulated by the CMAQ modeling system are supplied to the embedded cloud microphysical

Cloud Microphysics Budget in the Tropical Deep Convective Regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Xiao-Fan; Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Cloud microphysics budgets in the tropical deep convective regime are analyzed based on a 2-D cloud resolving simulation. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind and large-scale horizontal advections derived from TOGA COARE for a 20-day period. The role of cloud microphysics is first examined by analyzing mass-weighted mean heat budget and column-integrated moisture budget. Hourly budgets show that local changes of mass-weighted mean temperature and column-integrated moisture are mainly determined by the residuals between vertical thermal advection and latent heat of condensation and between vertical moisture advection and condensation respectively. Thus, atmospheric thermodynamics depends on how cloud microphysical processes are parameterized. Cloud microphysics budgets are then analyzed for raining conditions. For cloud-vapor exchange between cloud system and its embedded environment, rainfall and evaporation of raindrop are compensated by the condensation and deposition of supersaturated vapor. Inside the cloud system, the condensation of supersaturated vapor balances conversion from cloud water to raindrop, snow, and graupel through collection and accretion processes. The deposition of supersaturated vapor balances conversion from cloud ice to snow through conversion and riming processes. The conversion and riming of cloud ice and the accretion of cloud water balance conversion from snow to graupel through accretion process. Finally, the collection of cloud water and the melting of graupel increase raindrop to compensate the loss of raindrop due to rainfall and the evaporation of raindrop.

Investigating Microphysics of Intracluster Medium with Advanced Hydrodynamic Simulations and X-Ray Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markevitch, Maxim

' -- sharp, arc-like contact discontinuities often observed in the cluster high- resolution X-ray images. Most of the observed cold fronts are very smooth, but some are visibly affected by instabilities. We will constrain the viscosity (largely independently of its exact physical nature) by including various levels of viscosity in the simulation of a strategically selected sample of cold front clusters. The forthcoming Astro-H mission opens another avenue to study the ICM viscosity and related phenomena -- by directly observing turbulence in merging and relaxed clusters. The turbulence in our merger simulations with varying viscosity could be directly compared to the levels eventually observed by Astro-H. Over the past several years, we have developed most of the machinery necessary for the above simulations by adding the appropriate code for diffusive physics into FLASH -- the high-resolution, grid-based magnetohydrodynamic code. As part of the proposed project, we will (a) add a few missing physical ingredients to the code and (b) simulate a sample of merging clusters, carefully selected from the XMM and Chandra archives to provide the strongest constraints on thermal conduction and viscosity in the ICM. The comparison with observations will result in strict limits on these microphysical quantities, adding an important element into the astrophysical foundation for the use of clusters as cosmological tools. The proposed research is directly relevant to the ROSES ATP solicitation, because it is a theoretical/numerical study of the physical processes in galaxy clusters, which will lead to predictions that can be tested with observations by the NASA space astrophysics missions XMM, Chandra and Astro-H.

A study of cloud microphysics and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by radar observations and cloud-resolving model simulations: Cloud Microphysics over Tibetan Plateau

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Wenhua; Sui, Chung-Hsiung; Fan, Jiwen

Cloud microphysical properties and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are unique because of the high terrains, clean atmosphere, and sufficient water vapor. With dual-polarization precipitation radar and cloud radar measurements during the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Scientific Experiment (TIPEX-III), the simulated microphysics and precipitation by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) microphysics and other microphysical schemes are investigated through a typical plateau rainfall event on 22 July 2014. Results show that the WRF-CAMS simulation reasonably reproduces the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation, but has limitations in simulating time evolutionmore » of precipitation rates. The model-calculated polarimetric radar variables have biases as well, suggesting bias in modeled hydrometeor types. The raindrop sizes in convective region are larger than those in stratiform region indicated by the small intercept of raindrop size distribution in the former. The sensitivity experiments show that precipitation processes are sensitive to the changes of warm rain processes in condensation and nucleated droplet size (but less sensitive to evaporation process). Increasing droplet condensation produces the best area-averaged rain rate during weak convection period compared with the observation, suggesting a considerable bias in thermodynamics in the baseline simulation. Increasing the initial cloud droplet size causes the rain rate reduced by half, an opposite effect to that of increasing droplet condensation.« less

Validation of Microphysical Schemes in a CRM Using TRMM Satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Tao, W.; Matsui, T.; Liu, C.; Masunaga, H.

2007-12-01

The microphysical scheme in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model has been the most heavily developed component in the past decade. The cloud-resolving model now has microphysical schemes ranging from the original Lin type bulk scheme, to improved bulk schemes, to a two-moment scheme, to a detailed bin spectral scheme. Even with the most sophisticated bin scheme, many uncertainties still exist, especially in ice phase microphysics. In this study, we take advantages of the long-term TRMM observations, especially the cloud profiles observed by the precipitation radar (PR), to validate microphysical schemes in the simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs). Two contrasting cases, a midlatitude summertime continental MCS with leading convection and trailing stratiform region, and an oceanic MCS in tropical western Pacific are studied. The simulated cloud structures and particle sizes are fed into a forward radiative transfer model to simulate the TRMM satellite sensors, i.e., the PR, the TRMM microwave imager (TMI) and the visible and infrared scanner (VIRS). MCS cases that match the structure and strength of the simulated systems over the 10-year period are used to construct statistics of different sensors. These statistics are then compared with the synthetic satellite data obtained from the forward radiative transfer calculations. It is found that the GCE model simulates the contrasts between the continental and oceanic case reasonably well, with less ice scattering in the oceanic case comparing with the continental case. However, the simulated ice scattering signals for both PR and TMI are generally stronger than the observations, especially for the bulk scheme and at the upper levels in the stratiform region. This indicates larger, denser snow/graupel particles at these levels. Adjusting microphysical schemes in the GCE model according the observations, especially the 3D cloud structure observed by TRMM PR, result in a much better agreement.

Simulations of precipitation using the Community Earth System Model (CESM): Sensitivity to microphysics time step

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murthi, A.; Menon, S.; Sednev, I.

2011-12-01

An inherent difficulty in the ability of global climate models to accurately simulate precipitation lies in the use of a large time step, Δt (usually 30 minutes), to solve the governing equations. Since microphysical processes are characterized by small time scales compared to Δt, finite difference approximations used to advance microphysics equations suffer from numerical instability and large time truncation errors. With this in mind, the sensitivity of precipitation simulated by the atmospheric component of CESM, namely the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.1), to the microphysics time step (τ) is investigated. Model integrations are carried out for a period of five years with a spin up time of about six months for a horizontal resolution of 2.5 × 1.9 degrees and 30 levels in the vertical, with Δt = 1800 s. The control simulation with τ = 900 s is compared with one using τ = 300 s for accumulated precipitation and radi- ation budgets at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA), while keeping Δt fixed. Our choice of τ = 300 s is motivated by previous work on warm rain processes wherein it was shown that a value of τ around 300 s was necessary, but not sufficient, to ensure positive definiteness and numerical stability of the explicit time integration scheme used to integrate the microphysical equations. However, since the entire suite of microphysical processes are represented in our case, we suspect that this might impose additional restrictions on τ. The τ = 300 s case produces differences in large-scale accumulated rainfall from the τ = 900 s case by as large as 200 mm, over certain regions of the globe. The spatial patterns of total accumulated precipitation using τ = 300 s are in closer agreement with satellite observed precipitation, when compared to the τ = 900 s case. Differences are also seen in the radiation budget with the τ = 300 (900) s cases producing surpluses that range between 1-3 W/m2 at both the TOA and surface in the global

A Primer In Advanced Fatigue Life Prediction Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, Gary R.

2000-01-01

Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelop is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelop as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

GPU-Accelerated Stony-Brook University 5-class Microphysics Scheme in WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mielikainen, J.; Huang, B.; Huang, A.

2011-12-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system. Microphysics plays an important role in weather and climate prediction. Several bulk water microphysics schemes are available within the WRF, with different numbers of simulated hydrometeor classes and methods for estimating their size fall speeds, distributions and densities. Stony-Brook University scheme (SBU-YLIN) is a 5-class scheme with riming intensity predicted to account for mixed-phase processes. In the past few years, co-processing on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) has been a disruptive technology in High Performance Computing (HPC). GPUs use the ever increasing transistor count for adding more processor cores. Therefore, GPUs are well suited for massively data parallel processing with high floating point arithmetic intensity. Thus, it is imperative to update legacy scientific applications to take advantage of this unprecedented increase in computing power. CUDA is an extension to the C programming language offering programming GPU's directly. It is designed so that its constructs allow for natural expression of data-level parallelism. A CUDA program is organized into two parts: a serial program running on the CPU and a CUDA kernel running on the GPU. The CUDA code consists of three computational phases: transmission of data into the global memory of the GPU, execution of the CUDA kernel, and transmission of results from the GPU into the memory of CPU. CUDA takes a bottom-up point of view of parallelism is which thread is an atomic unit of parallelism. Individual threads are part of groups called warps, within which every thread executes exactly the same sequence of instructions. To test SBU-YLIN, we used a CONtinental United States (CONUS) benchmark data set for 12 km resolution domain for October 24, 2001. A WRF domain is a geographic region of interest discretized into a 2-dimensional grid parallel to the ground. Each grid point has

Microphysical Model Studies of Venus Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meade, P. E.; Bullock, M. A.; Grinspoon, D. H.

2004-11-01

We have adapted a standard cloud microphysics model to construct a self-consistent microphysical model of Venus' cloud layer which reproduces and extends previous studies (e.g. James et al. 1997). Our model is based on the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model Atmosphere (CARMA), which is a widely used computer code for terrestrial cloud microphysics, derived from the work of Toon et al. (1988). The standard code has been adapted to treat H2O and H2SO4 as co-condensing vapor species onto aqueous H2SO4 cloud droplets, as well as the nucleation of condensation nuclei to droplets. Vapor condensation and evaporation follows the method of James et al. (1997). Microphysical processes included in this model include nucleation of condensation nuclei, condensation and evaporation of H2O and H2SO4 vapor, and droplet coagulation. Vertical transport occurs though advection, eddy diffusion, sedimentation for both droplets and condensation nuclei. The cloud model is used to explore the sensitivity of Venus' cloud layer to environmental changes. Observations of the Venus' lower cloud from the Pioneer Venus, Venera, and Galileo spacecraft have suggested that the properties of the lower cloud may be time-variable, and at times may be entirely absent (Carlson et al. 1993, Grinspoon et al. 1993, Esposito et al. 1997). Our model explores the dependence of such behavior on environment factors such as variations in water or SO2 abundance. We have also calculated the optical properties of the model atmosphere using both the conventional optical constants for H2SO4 (Palmer and Williams, 1975), and the new data of Tisdale et al. (1998). This work has been supported by NASA's Exobiology Program. References Carlson, R.W., et al., 1993. Planetary and Space Science, 41, 477-486. Esposito, L.W., et al., 1997. In Venus II, eds. S.W. Bougher et al., pp. 415-458, University of Arizona Press, Tucson. Grinspoon, D.H., et al., 1993. Planetary and Space Science, 41 (July 1993), 515-542. James, E. P

Understanding the Microphysical Properties of Developing Cloud Clusters during TCS-08

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-30

Typhoon Mawar (2005) from the western North Pacific to demonstrate considerable differences in both the development of (Fig. 4), and the microphysical...traces of simulated Typhoon Mawar (2005) showing sea-level pressure on the left axis and maximum wind speed on the right axis. There is considerable...differences in both the speed at which Mawar develops and the final minimum sea-level pressure depending on which microphysics (cloud-resolving

A Comparison of Cloud Microphysical and Optical Properties during TOGA-COARE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strawa, A. W.; Pueschel, R. F.; Pilewskie, P.; Valero, F. P. J.; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

The impact of cirrus clouds on climate is an issue of research interest currently. Whether cirrus clouds heat or cool the Earth-atmosphere system depends on the cloud shortwave albedo and infrared reflectance and absorptance. These in turn are determined by the size distribution, phase, and composition of particles in the clouds. The TOGA-COARE campaign presented an excellent opportunity to study cirrus clouds and their influence on climate. In this campaign, a microphysics instrument package was flown aboard the DC-8 aircraft at medium altitudes in cirrus clouds. This package included a 2D Greyscale Cloud Particle Probe, a Forward Scattering Spectrometer Aerosol Probe, and an ice crystal replicator. At the same time the ER-2 equipped with a radiation measurement system flew coordinated flight tracks above the DC-8 at very high altitude. The radiation measurement made were short and long wave fluxes, as well as narrowband fluxes, both upwelling and downwelling. In addition LIDAR data is available. The existence of these data sets allows for a the comparison of radiation measurement with microphysical measurements. For example, the optical depth and effective radius retrieved from the ER-2 radiation measurements can be compared to the microphysical data. Conversely, the optical properties and fluxes produced by the clouds can be calculated from the microphysical measurements and compared to those measured aboard the ER-2. The assumptions required to make these comparisons are discussed. Typical microphysical results show a prevalence of micron-sized particles, in addition to the cloud particles that exceed 100 mm. The large number of small particles or "haze" cause the effective cloud radii to shift to smaller sizes, leading to changes in optical parameters.

Evaluation of Model Microphysics within Precipitation Bands of Extratropical Cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colle, Brian A.; Yu, Ruyi; Molthan, Andrew L.; Nesbitt, Steven

2013-01-01

Recent studies evaluating the bulk microphysical schemes (BMPs) within cloud resolving models (CRMs) have indicated large uncertainties and errors in the amount and size distributions of snow and cloud ice aloft. The snow prediction is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33-km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Coldseason Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment, as well as a few years (15 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku-band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. A Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometer was also used to measure the surface size distribution and fall speeds of snow at SBNY. For the 15 cases at SBNY, the WSM6, Morrison (MORR), Thompson (THOM2), and Stony Brook (SBU-YLIN) BMPs were validated. A non-spherical snow assumption (THOM2 and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic distribution of reflectivity than spherical snow assumptions in the WSM6 and MORR schemes. The MORR, WSM6, and SBU-YLIN schemes are comparable to the observed velocity distribution in light and moderate riming periods. The THOM2 is approx 0.25 m/s too slow with its velocity distribution in these periods. In heavier riming, the vertical Doppler velocities in the WSM6, THOM2, and MORR schemes were approx 0.25 m/s too slow, while the

Evaluation of Model Microphysics Within Precipitation Bands of Extratropical Cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colle, Brian A.; Molthan, Andrew; Yu, Ruyi; Stark, David; Yuter, Sandra; Nesbitt, Steven

2013-01-01

Recent studies evaluating the bulk microphysical schemes (BMPs) within cloud resolving models (CRMs) have indicated large uncertainties and errors in the amount and size distributions of snow and cloud ice aloft. The snow prediction is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33-km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Coldseason Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment, as well as a few years (15 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku-band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. A Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometer was also used to measure the surface size distribution and fall speeds of snow at SBNY. For the 15 cases at SBNY, the WSM6, Morrison (MORR), Thompson (THOM2), and Stony Brook (SBU-YLIN) BMPs were validated. A non-spherical snow assumption (THOM2 and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic distribution of reflectivity than spherical snow assumptions in the WSM6 and MORR schemes. The MORR, WSM6, and SBU-YLIN schemes are comparable to the observed velocity distribution in light and moderate riming periods. The THOM2 is 0.25 meters per second too slow with its velocity distribution in these periods. In heavier riming, the vertical Doppler velocities in the WSM6, THOM2, and MORR schemes were 0.25 meters per second too

Lidar stand-alone retrieval of atmospheric aerosol microphysical properties during SLOPE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Amezcua, Pablo; Samaras, Stefanos; Böckmann, Christine; Antonio Benavent-Oltra, Jose; Luis Guerrero-Rascado, Juan; Román, Roberto; Alados-Arboledas, Lucas

2018-04-01

Two cases from SLOPE campaign at Granada are analyzed in terms of particle microphysical properties using novel software developed at Potsdam University. Multiwavelength Raman lidar measurements of particle extinction and backscatter coefficients as well as linear particle depolarization ratios are used as input for the software. The result of the retrieval is a 2-dimensional particle volume distribution as a function of radius and aspect ratio, from which the particle microphysical properties are obtained.

Evidence of Mineral Dust Altering Cloud Microphysics and Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Min, Qilong; Li, Rui; Lin, Bing; Joseph, Everette; Wang, Shuyu; Hu, Yongxiang; Morris, Vernon; Chang, F.

2008-01-01

Multi-platform and multi-sensor observations are employed to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in mesoscale convective systems. It is clearly evident that for a given convection strength,small hydrometeors were more prevalent in the stratiform rain regions with dust than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust sector, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation process of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of precipitation. The consequences of the microphysical effects of the dust aerosols were to shift the precipitation size spectrum from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately suppressing precipitation.

Performance of the Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework with Goddard Ice Microphysical Schemes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chern, Jiun-Dar; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Li, J.-L.; Mohr, Karen I.; Skofronick-Jackson, Gail M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2016-01-01

The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has become a new approach for climate modeling. The embedded CRMs make it possible to apply CRM-based cloud microphysics directly within a GCM. However, most such schemes have never been tested in a global environment for long-term climate simulation. The benefits of using an MMF to evaluate rigorously and improve microphysics schemes are here demonstrated. Four one-moment microphysical schemes are implemented into the Goddard MMF and their results validated against three CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud ice products and other satellite data. The new four-class (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) ice scheme produces a better overall spatial distribution of cloud ice amount, total cloud fractions, net radiation, and total cloud radiative forcing than earlier three-class ice schemes, with biases within the observational uncertainties. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to examine the impact of recently upgraded microphysical processes on global hydrometeor distributions. Five processes dominate the global distributions of cloud ice and snow amount in long-term simulations: (1) allowing for ice supersaturation in the saturation adjustment, (2) three additional correction terms in the depositional growth of cloud ice to snow, (3) accounting for cloud ice fall speeds, (4) limiting cloud ice particle size, and (5) new size-mapping schemes for snow and graupel. Despite the cloud microphysics improvements, systematic errors associated with subgrid processes, cyclic lateral boundaries in the embedded CRMs, and momentum transport remain and will require future improvement.

New, Improved Goddard Bulk-Microphysical Schemes for Studying Precipitation Processes in WRF

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2007-01-01

An improved bulk microphysical parameterization is implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting ()VRF) model. This bulk microphysical scheme has three different options, 2ICE (cloud ice & snow), 3ICE-graupel (cloud ice, snow & graupel) and 3ICE-hail (cloud ice, snow & hail). High-resolution model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of microphysical schemes on two different weather events (a midlatitude linear convective system and an Atlantic hurricane). The results suggest that microphysics has a major impact on the organization and precipitation processes associated with a summer midlatitude convective line system. The Goddard 3ICE scheme with a cloud ice-snow-hail configuration agreed better with observations in terms of rainfall intensity and a narrow convective line than did simulations with a cloud ice-snow-graupel or cloud ice-snow (i.e., 2ICE) configuration. This is because the 3ICE-hail scheme includes dense ice precipitating (hail) particle with very fast fall speed (over 10 in For an Atlantic hurricane case, the Goddard microphysical schemes had no significant impact on the track forecast but did affect the intensity slightly. The improved Goddard schemes are also compared with WRF's three other 3ICE bulk microphysical schemes: WSM6, Purdue-Lin and Thompson. For the summer midlatitude convective line system, all of the schemes resulted in simulated precipitation events that were elongated in the southwest-northeast direction in qualitative agreement with the observed feature. However, the Goddard 3ICE scheme with the hail option and the Thompson scheme agree better with observations in terms of rainfall intensity, expect that the Goddard scheme simulated more heavy rainfall (over 48 mm/h). For the Atlantic hurricane case, none of the schemes had a significant impact on the track forecast; however, the simulated intensity using the Purdue-Lin scheme was much stronger than the other schemes. The vertical distributions of model

The 20-22 January 2007 Snow Events over Canada: Microphysical Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao. W.K.; Shi, J.J.; Matsui, T.; Hao, A.; Lang, S.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Skofronick-Jackson, G.; Petersen, W.; Cifelli, R.; Rutledge, S.

2009-01-01

One of the grand challenges of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is to improve precipitation measurements in mid- and high-latitudes during cold seasons through the use of high-frequency passive microwave radiometry. Toward this end, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard microphysics scheme is coupled with a Satellite Data Simulation Unit (WRF-SDSU) that has been developed to facilitate over-land snowfall retrieval algorithms by providing a virtual cloud library and microwave brightness temperature (Tb) measurements consistent with the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI). This study tested the Goddard cloud microphysics scheme in WRF for snowstorm events (January 20-22, 2007) that took place over the Canadian CloudSAT/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) ground site (Centre for Atmospheric Research Experiments - CARE) in Ontario, Canada. In this paper, the performance of the Goddard cloud microphysics scheme both with 2ice (ice and snow) and 3ice (ice, snow and graupel) as well as other WRF microphysics schemes will be presented. The results are compared with data from the Environment Canada (EC) King Radar, an operational C-band radar located near the CARE site. In addition, the WRF model output is used to drive the Goddard SDSU to calculate radiances and backscattering signals consistent with direct satellite observations for evaluating the model results.

Microphysics, Meteorology, Microwave and Modeling of Mediterranean Storms: The M(sup 5) Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Fiorino, Steven; Mugnai, Alberto; Panegrossi, Giulia; Tripoli, Gregory; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, particularly from synoptic scale down to mesoscale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the September 25-28/1992 Genova flood event, the October 5-7/1998 Friuli flood event, and the October 13-15/2000 Piemonte flood event (all taking place in northern Italy), developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within the storm domains. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting proc esses. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size distributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within the storm environments. This paper presents detailed 4-dimensional analyses of the microphysical elements of the three severe Mediterranean storms identified above, investigated with the aid of SSM/I and TRMM satellite measurements (and other remote sensing measurements). The analyses are guided by nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulations at high resolution of the intense rain producing portions of the storm environments. The results emphasize how meteorological controls taking place at the large scale, coupled with localized terrain controls, ultimately determine the most salient features of the bulk microphysical

Aerosol Microphysical and Radiative Effects on Continental Cloud Ensembles

DOE PAGES

Wang, Yuan; Vogel, Jonathan M.; Lin, Yun; ...

2018-01-10

Aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in the current climate assessment. Much of the complexity arises from the non-monotonic responses of clouds, precipitation and radiative fluxes to aerosol perturbations under various meteorological conditions. Here, an aerosol-aware Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate the microphysical and radiative effects of aerosols in three weather systems during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Observational Period campaign at the Southern Great Plains site of the US Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. Three cloud ensembles with different meteorological conditions are simulated, including a low-pressure deep convective cloud system, a series ofmore » lessprecipitating stratus and shallow cumulus, and a cold frontal passage. The WRF simulations are evaluated by the available observations of cloud fraction, liquid water path, precipitation, and surface temperature. The microphysical properties of cloud hydrometeors, such as their mass and number concentrations, generally show monotonic trends as a function of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. Aerosol radiative effects do not interfere the trends of cloud microphysics, except for the stratus and shallow cumulus cases where aerosol semi-direct effects are identified. The precipitation changes by aerosols vary with the cloud types and their evolving stages, with more prominent aerosol invigoration effect and associated enhanced precipitation from the convective sources. Furthermore, the simulated aerosol direct effect suppresses precipitation in all three cases but does not overturn the direction of precipitation changes by the aerosol indirect effect. Cloud fraction exhibits much smaller sensitivity (typically less than 2%) to aerosol perturbations than the cloud microphysics, and the responses vary with aerosol concentrations and cloud regimes. The surface shortwave radiation shows a monotonic decrease by

Aerosol Microphysical and Radiative Effects on Continental Cloud Ensembles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yuan; Vogel, Jonathan M.; Lin, Yun

Aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in the current climate assessment. Much of the complexity arises from the non-monotonic responses of clouds, precipitation and radiative fluxes to aerosol perturbations under various meteorological conditions. Here, an aerosol-aware Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate the microphysical and radiative effects of aerosols in three weather systems during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Observational Period campaign at the Southern Great Plains site of the US Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. Three cloud ensembles with different meteorological conditions are simulated, including a low-pressure deep convective cloud system, a series ofmore » lessprecipitating stratus and shallow cumulus, and a cold frontal passage. The WRF simulations are evaluated by the available observations of cloud fraction, liquid water path, precipitation, and surface temperature. The microphysical properties of cloud hydrometeors, such as their mass and number concentrations, generally show monotonic trends as a function of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. Aerosol radiative effects do not interfere the trends of cloud microphysics, except for the stratus and shallow cumulus cases where aerosol semi-direct effects are identified. The precipitation changes by aerosols vary with the cloud types and their evolving stages, with more prominent aerosol invigoration effect and associated enhanced precipitation from the convective sources. Furthermore, the simulated aerosol direct effect suppresses precipitation in all three cases but does not overturn the direction of precipitation changes by the aerosol indirect effect. Cloud fraction exhibits much smaller sensitivity (typically less than 2%) to aerosol perturbations than the cloud microphysics, and the responses vary with aerosol concentrations and cloud regimes. The surface shortwave radiation shows a monotonic decrease by

A 3D Microphysical Model of Titan's Methane Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, J.; Newman, C.; Inada, A.; Richardson, M.

2006-12-01

A time-dependent idealized 3D microphysical model for Titan's methane cloud is described. This new high resolution microphysical model nests in a Titan WRF GCM model. It assumes the vapor-liquid equilibria of methane-nitrogen mixtures which are based on the recent chemical experiments and thermodynamics models. In particular, the methane is condensed at a given temperature and pressure. Meanwhile nitrogen is dissolved in the methane liquid. The new model first uses the data from the thermodynamic model (Kouvaris et al. 1991), which involves saturation criteria, composition of condensate, and latent heat for a given pressure-temperature profile. For altitudes lower than 14 km, methane is saturated and condensed into liquid phase. However for altitudes from 14 km above to tropopause, methane is changed into supercooled liquid state. Then, we do some testing experiments with 1D model by varying the initial methane vapor mass mixing ratio profile and the initial mole fraction of methane in liquid phase. Based on the steady state results from 1D model, an idealized 3D microphysics model is developed to investigate the convection cloud in Titan's troposphere. Due to lower relative humidity at titan's surface (Samuelson et al. 1997) and the current estimated moist adiabatic lapse rate, convection is hardly to happen without lifting. For this reason, we apply a symmetry cosine ridge in a 100*100 grids box to force the air flow lifted at certain levels, which in turn drives the condensation of methane vapor. In addition to the abundance of methane clouds and its duration provided by the 3D model, our study demonstrates that vertical motion might be likely the major cause of convection clouds in Titan's troposphere. As the future work, we will further investigate size-resolved microphysical scheme to insight into the nature of methane cycle in Titan's atmosphere.

Mixed-phase altocumulus clouds over Leipzig: Remote sensing measurements and spectral cloud microphysics simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmel, Martin; Bühl, Johannes; Ansmann, Albert; Tegen, Ina

2015-04-01

The present work combines remote sensing observations and detailed microphysics cloud modeling to investigate two altocumulus cloud cases observed over Leipzig, Germany. A suite of remote sensing instruments was able to detect primary ice at rather warm temperatures of -6°C. For comparison, a second mixed phase case at about -25°C is introduced. To further look into the details of cloud microphysical processes a simple dynamics model of the Asai-Kasahara type is combined with detailed spectral microphysics forming the model system AK-SPECS. Temperature and humidity profiles are taken either from observation (radiosonde) or GDAS reanalysis. Vertical velocities are prescribed to force the dynamics as well as main cloud features to be close to the observations. Subsequently, sensitivity studies with respect to dynamical as well as ice microphysical parameters are carried out with the aim to quantify the most important sensitivities for the cases investigated. For the cases selected, the liquid phase is mainly determined by the model dynamics (location and strength of vertical velocity) whereas the ice phase is much more sensitive to the microphysical parameters (ice nuclei (IN) number, ice particle shape). The choice of ice particle shape may induce large uncertainties which are in the same order as those for the temperature-dependent IN number distribution.

Lagrangian condensation microphysics with Twomey CCN activation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabowski, Wojciech W.; Dziekan, Piotr; Pawlowska, Hanna

2018-01-01

We report the development of a novel Lagrangian microphysics methodology for simulations of warm ice-free clouds. The approach applies the traditional Eulerian method for the momentum and continuous thermodynamic fields such as the temperature and water vapor mixing ratio, and uses Lagrangian super-droplets to represent condensed phase such as cloud droplets and drizzle or rain drops. In other applications of the Lagrangian warm-rain microphysics, the super-droplets outside clouds represent unactivated cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that become activated upon entering a cloud and can further grow through diffusional and collisional processes. The original methodology allows for the detailed study of not only effects of CCN on cloud microphysics and dynamics, but also CCN processing by a cloud. However, when cloud processing is not of interest, a simpler and computationally more efficient approach can be used with super-droplets forming only when CCN is activated and no super-droplet existing outside a cloud. This is possible by applying the Twomey activation scheme where the local supersaturation dictates the concentration of cloud droplets that need to be present inside a cloudy volume, as typically used in Eulerian bin microphysics schemes. Since a cloud volume is a small fraction of the computational domain volume, the Twomey super-droplets provide significant computational advantage when compared to the original super-droplet methodology. Additional advantage comes from significantly longer time steps that can be used when modeling of CCN deliquescence is avoided. Moreover, other formulation of the droplet activation can be applied in case of low vertical resolution of the host model, for instance, linking the concentration of activated cloud droplets to the local updraft speed. This paper discusses the development and testing of the Twomey super-droplet methodology, focusing on the activation and diffusional growth. Details of the activation

Evaluation of a new microphysical aerosol module in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodhouse, Matthew; Mann, Graham; Carslaw, Ken; Morcrette, Jean-Jacques; Schulz, Michael; Kinne, Stefan; Boucher, Olivier

2013-04-01

The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate II (MACC-II) project will provide a system for monitoring and predicting atmospheric composition. As part of the first phase of MACC, the GLOMAP-mode microphysical aerosol scheme (Mann et al., 2010, GMD) was incorporated within the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The two-moment modal GLOMAP-mode scheme includes new particle formation, condensation, coagulation, cloud-processing, and wet and dry deposition. GLOMAP-mode is already incorporated as a module within the TOMCAT chemistry transport model and within the UK Met Office HadGEM3 general circulation model. The microphysical, process-based GLOMAP-mode scheme allows an improved representation of aerosol size and composition and can simulate aerosol evolution in the troposphere and stratosphere. The new aerosol forecasting and re-analysis system (known as IFS-GLOMAP) will also provide improved boundary conditions for regional air quality forecasts, and will benefit from assimilation of observed aerosol optical depths in near real time. Presented here is an evaluation of the performance of the IFS-GLOMAP system in comparison to in situ aerosol mass and number measurements, and remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth measurements. Future development will provide a fully-coupled chemistry-aerosol scheme, and the capability to resolve nitrate aerosol.

Indian Summer Monsoon Drought 2009: Role of Aerosol and Cloud Microphysics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hazra, Anupam; Taraphdar, Sourav; Halder, Madhuparna

2013-07-01

Cloud dynamics played a fundamental role in defining Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during drought in 2009. The anomalously negative precipitation was consistent with cloud properties. Although, aerosols inhibited the growth of cloud effective radius in the background of sparse water vapor, their role is secondary. The primary role, however, is played by the interactive feedback between cloud microphysics and dynamics owing to reduced efficient cloud droplet growth, lesser latent heating release and shortage of water content. Cloud microphysical processes were instrumental for the occurrence of ISM drought 2009.

Microphysical Timescales in Clouds and their Application in Cloud-Resolving Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne

2007-01-01

Independent prognostic variables in cloud-resolving modeling are chosen on the basis of the analysis of microphysical timescales in clouds versus a time step for numerical integration. Two of them are the moist entropy and the total mixing ratio of airborne water with no contributions from precipitating particles. As a result, temperature can be diagnosed easily from those prognostic variables, and cloud microphysics be separated (or modularized) from moist thermodynamics. Numerical comparison experiments show that those prognostic variables can work well while a large time step (e.g., 10 s) is used for numerical integration.

Evaluating Simulated Tropical Convective Cores using HAIC-HIWC Microphysics and Dynamics Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanford, M.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.; Strapp, J. W.; Leroy, D.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Korolev, A.; Potts, R.

2016-12-01

A model intercomparison study is conducted to identify biases in simulated tropical convective core microphysical properties using two popular bulk parameterization schemes (Thompson and Morrison) and the Fast Spectral Bin Microphysics (FSBM) scheme. In-situ aircraft measurements of total condensed water content (TWC) and particle size distributions are compared with output from high-resolution WRF simulations of 4 mesoscale convective system (MCS) cases during the High Altitude Ice Crystals-High Ice Water Content (HAIC-HIWC) field campaign conducted in Darwin, Australia in 2014 and Cayenne, French Guiana in 2015. Observations of TWC collected using an isokinetic evaporator probe (IKP) optimized for high IWC measurements in conjunction with particle image processing from two optical array probes aboard the Falcon-20 research aircraft were used to constrain mass-size relationships in the observational dataset. Hydrometeor mass size distributions are compared between retrievals and simulations providing insight into the well-known high bias in simulated convective radar reflectivity. For TWC > 1 g m-3 between -10 and -40°C, simulations generally produce significantly greater median mass diameters (MMDs). Observations indicate that a sharp particle size mode occurs at 300 μm for large TWC values (> 2 g m-3) regardless of temperature. All microphysics schemes fail to reproduce this feature, and relative contributions of different hydrometeor species to this size bias vary between schemes. Despite far greater sample sizes, simulations also fail to produce high TWC conditions with very little of the mass contributed by large particles for a range of temperatures, despite such conditions being observed. Considering vapor grown particles alone in comparison with observations fails to correct the bias present in all schemes. Decreasing horizontal resolution from 1 km to 333 m shifts graupel and rain size distributions to slightly smaller sizes, but increased resolution

Studies of Radiation and Microphysics in Cirrus and Marine Stratocumulus Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1999-01-01

Two tasks were completed during this period. In the first, we examined the polarization of millimeter-wavelength radar beams scattered by ice crystals. Because of their non-spherical shape and size, ice crystals depolarize the incident polarized radar beam. In principle, this depolarization can be used to identify ice from liquid water, as well as provide some information on size. However, the amount of de-polarization is small, producing only a weak signal at the receiver. Our task was to determine the magnitude of such a signal and decide if our radar would be capable of measuring it under typical cirrus conditions. The theoretical study was carried out by Henrietta Lemke, a visiting graduate student from Germany. She had prior experience using a discrete dipole code to compute scattering depolarization. Dr. Kultegin Aydin of the Penn State Electrical Engineering Department, who is also expert in this area, consulted with us on this project at no cost to the project. Our conclusion was that the depolarization signal is too weak to be usefully measured by our system. Therefore we proceeded no further in this study. The second task involved the study of the effect of stratus microphysics on surface cloud forcing. Manajit Sengupta, a graduate student, and the project PI jointly carried out this task. The study used data culled from over a year of continuous radar and radiometer observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site in Oklahoma. The study compared solar radiation calculations made using constant microphysics with calculations made using a retrieved mean particle size. The results showed that on average the constant microphysics produced the correct forcing when compared with the observed forcing. We conclude, therefore, that there is little impetus on radiation grounds alone to include explicit microphysics in climate models. The question of pollutant particle emission impacts on microphysics remains to be resolved. A manuscript is in

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carey, Lawrence D.; Peterson, Harold S.; Schultz, Elise V.; Matthee, Retha; Schultz, Christopher J.; Petersen, Walter A,; Bain, Lamont

2012-01-01

Objective: To investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type (intracloud [IC] vs. cloud-to-ground [CG] ) and extent. Data and Methodology: a) NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TradeMark) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. b) LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles (Koshak et al. 2012). c) LNOM lightning characteristics are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler (DD) and polarimetric radar analyses of UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, Cband, polarimetric) and KHTX (S-band, Doppler).

Black carbon mixing state impacts on cloud microphysical properties: effects of aerosol plume and environmental conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ching, Ping Pui; Riemer, Nicole; West, Matthew

2016-05-27

Black carbon (BC) is usually mixed with other aerosol species within individual aerosol particles. This mixture, along with the particles' size and morphology, determines the particles' optical and cloud condensation nuclei properties, and hence black carbon's climate impacts. In this study the particle-resolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC was used to quantify the importance of black carbon mixing state for predicting cloud microphysical quantities. Based on a set of about 100 cloud parcel simulations a process level analysis framework was developed to attribute the response in cloud microphysical properties to changes in the underlying aerosol population ("plume effect") and the cloud parcelmore » cooling rate ("parcel effect"). It shows that the response of cloud droplet number concentration to changes in BC emissions depends on the BC mixing state. When the aerosol population contains mainly aged BC particles an increase in BC emission results in increasing cloud droplet number concentrations ("additive effect"). In contrast, when the aerosol population contains mainly fresh BC particles they act as sinks for condensable gaseous species, resulting in a decrease in cloud droplet number concentration as BC emissions are increased ("competition effect"). Additionally, we quantified the error in cloud microphysical quantities when neglecting the information on BC mixing state, which is often done in aerosol models. The errors ranged from -12% to +45% for the cloud droplet number fraction, from 0% to +1022% for the nucleation-scavenged black carbon (BC) mass fraction, from -12% to +4% for the effective radius, and from -30% to +60% for the relative dispersion.« less

In-Situ Microphysics from the RACORO IOP

DOE Data Explorer

McFarquhar, Greg

2013-11-08

These files were generated by Greg McFarquhar and Robert Jackson at the University of Illinois. Please contact mcfarq@atmos.uiuc.edu or rjackso2@atmos.uiuc.edu for more information or for assistance in interpreting the content of these files. We highly recommend that anyone wishing to use these files do so in a collaborative endeavor and we welcome queries and opportunities for collaboration. There are caveats associated with the use of the data which are difficult to thoroughly document and not all products for all time periods have been thoroughly examined. This is a value added data set of the best estimate of cloud microphysical parameters derived using data collected by the cloud microphysical probes installed on the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter during RACORO. These files contain best estimates of liquid size distributions N(D) in terms of droplet diameter D, liquid water content LWC, extinction of liquid drops beta, effective radius of cloud drops (re), total number concentration of droplets NT, and radar reflectivity factor Z at 1 second resolution.

Latent cooling and microphysics effects in deep convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-González, S.; Wang, P. K.; Gascón, E.; Valero, F.; Sánchez, J. L.

2016-11-01

Water phase changes within a storm are responsible for the enhancement of convection and therefore the elongation of its lifespan. Specifically, latent cooling absorbed during evaporation, melting and sublimation is considered the main cause of the intensification of downdrafts. In order to know more accurately the consequences of latent cooling caused by each of these processes (together with microphysical effects that they induce), four simulations were developed with the Wisconsin Dynamical and Microphysical Model (WISCDYMM): one with all the microphysical processes; other without sublimation; melting was suppressed in the third simulation; and evaporation was disabled in the fourth. The results show that sublimation cooling is not essential to maintain the vertical currents of the storm. This is demonstrated by the fact that in the simulation without sublimation, maximum updrafts are in the same range as in the control simulation, and the storm lifespan is similar or even longer. However, melting was of vital importance. The storm in the simulation without melting dissipated prematurely, demonstrating that melting is indispensable to the enhancement of downdrafts below the freezing level and for avoiding the collapse of low level updrafts. Perhaps the most important finding is the crucial influence of evaporative cooling above the freezing level that maintains and enhances mid-level downdrafts in the storm. It is believed that this latent cooling comes from the evaporation of supercooled liquid water connected with the Bergeron-Findeisen process. Therefore, besides its influence at low levels (which was already well known), this evaporative cooling is essential to strengthen mid-level downdrafts and ultimately achieve a quasi-steady state.

Microphysical characterization of winter cloud systems during a research flight campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-González, Sergio; Sánchez, José Luis; Valero, Francisco; Gascón, Estíbaliz; Merino, Andrés; Hermida, Lucía; López, Laura; Marcos, José Luis; García-Ortega, Eduardo

2015-04-01

The lack of accuracy in the knowledge of cloud microphysics leads to aviation risks, which have caused numerous crashes, mainly owing to aircraft icing (e.g., an EMB-120 crashed in Detroit, Michigan in 1997, and an ATR-72 crashed near Roselawn, Indiana in 1994). Further, this lack is a source of uncertainty in numerical weather forecasting models, since commonly used parameterizations often overestimate ice water content and underestimate supercooled liquid water. This makes the collection of data on cloud microphysical characteristics very useful toward improving the forecasting of icing conditions. Ten research flights were conducted during the winters of 2011/12 and 2012/13. Their goal was to determine dominant microphysical conditions of winter cloud systems traversing the Guadarrama Mountains in the central Iberian Peninsula. The aircraft was a C-212-200, equipped with a Cloud, Aerosol, and Precipitation Spectrometer (CAPS) under the left wing. Data of temperature and Liquid Water Content (LWC), registered by the CAPS probe, were used in the study. Furthermore, we thoroughly analyzed images taken by a Cloud Imaging Probe Grayscale (CIP-GS), capable of measuring hydrometeors between 25 and 1,550 µm in size, and representing them in a 2D image. The various types of hydrometeors observed during these flights are described, along with microphysical processes inferred from the CIP-GS images. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS S. Fernández-González acknowledges grant support from the FPU program (AP 2010-2093). This study was also supported by grants from GRANIMETRO (CGL2010-15930) and MICROMETEO (IPT-310000-2010-22). The authors thank INTA for the research flights.

TASI/PiTP/ISS Lectures on Moduli and Microphysics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silverstein, E

2004-05-10

I review basic forces on moduli that lead to their stabilization, for example in the supercritical and KKLT models of de Sitter space in string theory, as well as an AdS{sub 4} x S{sup 3} x S{sup 3} model I include which is not published elsewhere. These forces come from the classical dilaton tadpole in generic dimensionality, internal curvature, fluxes, and branes and orientifolds as well as non-perturbative effects. The resulting (A)dS solutions of string theory make detailed predictions for microphysical entropy, whose leading behavior we exhibit on the Coulomb branch of the system. Finally, I briefly review recent developmentsmore » concerning the role of velocity-dependent effects in the dynamics of moduli. These lecture notes are based on material presented at various stages in the 1999 TASI, 2002 PiTP, 2003 TASI, and 2003 ISS schools.« less

Improving a Spectral Bin Microphysical Scheme Using TRMM Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Xiaowen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Matsui, Toshihisa; Liu, Chuntao; Masunaga, Hirohiko

2010-01-01

Comparisons between cloud model simulations and observations are crucial in validating model performance and improving physical processes represented in the mod Tel.hese modeled physical processes are idealized representations and almost always have large rooms for improvements. In this study, we use data from two different sensors onboard TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) satellite to improve the microphysical scheme in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. TRMM observed mature-stage squall lines during late spring, early summer in central US over a 9-year period are compiled and compared with a case simulation by GCE model. A unique aspect of the GCE model is that it has a state-of-the-art spectral bin microphysical scheme, which uses 33 different bins to represent particle size distribution of each of the seven hydrometeor species. A forward radiative transfer model calculates TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) 85 GHz brightness temperatures from simulated particle size distributions. Comparisons between model outputs and observations reveal that the model overestimates sizes of snow/aggregates in the stratiform region of the squall line. After adjusting temperature-dependent collection coefficients among ice-phase particles, PR comparisons become good while TMI comparisons worsen. Further investigations show that the partitioning between graupel (a high-density form of aggregate), and snow (a low-density form of aggregate) needs to be adjusted in order to have good comparisons in both PR reflectivity and TMI brightness temperature. This study shows that long-term satellite observations, especially those with multiple sensors, can be very useful in constraining model microphysics. It is also the first study in validating and improving a sophisticated spectral bin microphysical scheme according to long-term satellite observations.

Combined sphere-spheroid particle model for the retrieval of the microphysical aerosol parameters via regularized inversion of lidar data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, Stefanos; Böckmann, Christine; Nicolae, Doina

2016-06-01

In this work we propose a two-step advancement of the Mie spherical-particle model accounting for particle non-sphericity. First, a naturally two-dimensional (2D) generalized model (GM) is made, which further triggers analogous 2D re-definitions of microphysical parameters. We consider a spheroidal-particle approach where the size distribution is additionally dependent on aspect ratio. Second, we incorporate the notion of a sphere-spheroid particle mixture (PM) weighted by a non-sphericity percentage. The efficiency of these two models is investigated running synthetic data retrievals with two different regularization methods to account for the inherent instability of the inversion procedure. Our preliminary studies show that a retrieval with the PM model improves the fitting errors and the microphysical parameter retrieval and it has at least the same efficiency as the GM. While the general trend of the initial size distributions is captured in our numerical experiments, the reconstructions are subject to artifacts. Finally, our approach is applied to a measurement case yielding acceptable results.

A Theoretical Framework for Examining Geographical Variability in the Microphysical Mechanisms of Precipitation Development.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

Energy and Natural Resources SWS Contract Report 391 FINAL REPORT A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR EXAMINING GEOGRAPHICAL VARIABILITY IN THE MICROPHYSICAL...U) A Theoretical Framework for Examining Geographical Variability in the Microphysical Mechanisms of Precipitation Development 12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S...concentration. Oter key parameters include the degree of entrainment and stability of the environment. I 5 - T17 Unclassified ,.-. . A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FOR

Factors Affecting the Evolution of Hurricane Erin and the Distributions of Hydrometeors: Role of Microphysical Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McFarquhar, Greg M.; Zhang, Henian; Dudhia, Jimy; Halverson, Jeffrey B.; Heymsfield, Gerald; Hood, Robbie; Marks, Frank, Jr.

2003-01-01

Fine-resolution simulations of Hurricane Erin 2001 are conducted using the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model version 3.5 to investigate the role of thermodynamic, boundary layer and microphysical processes in Erin's growth and maintenance, and their effects on the horizontal and vertical distributions of hydrometeors. Through comparison against radar, radiometer, and dropsonde data collected during the Convection and Moisture Experiment 4, it is seen that realistic simulations of Erin are obtained provided that fine resolution simulations with detailed representations of physical processes are conducted. The principle findings of the study are as follows: 1) a new iterative condensation scheme, which limits the unphysical increase of equivalent potential temperature associated with most condensation schemes, increases the horizontal size of the hurricane, decreases its maximum rainfall rate, reduces its intensity, and makes its eye more moist; 2) in general, microphysical parameterization schemes with more categories of hydrometeors produce more intense hurricanes, larger hydrometeor mixing ratios, and more intense updrafts and downdrafts; 3) the choice of coefficients describing hydrometeor fall velocities has as big of an impact on the hurricane simulations as does choice of microphysical parameterization scheme with no clear relationship between fall velocity and hurricane intensity; and 4) in order for a tropical cyclone to adequately intensify, an advanced boundary layer scheme (e.g., Burk-Thompson scheme) must be used to represent boundary layer processes. The impacts of varying simulations on the horizontal and vertical distributions of different categories of hydrometeor species, on equivalent potential temperature, and on storm updrafts and downdrafts are examined to determine how the release of latent heat feedbacks upon the structure of Erin. In general, all simulations tend to overpredict precipitation rate

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carey, Lawrence; Koshak, William; Petersen, Harold; Schultz, Elise; Schultz, Chris; Matthee, Retha; Bain, Lamont

2012-01-01

The objective of this preliminary study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type and extent. The mixed-phase region is where the noninductive charging (NIC) process is thought to generate most storm electrification during rebounding collisions between ice particles in the presence of supercooled water. As a result, prior radar-based studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate is well correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume, graupel mass, or ice mass flux. There is also some evidence that lightning type is associated with the convective state. Intracloud (IC) lightning tends to dominate during the updraft accumulation of precipitation ice mass while cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is more numerous during the downdraft-driven descent of radar echo associated with graupel and hail. More study is required to generalize these relationships, especially regarding lightning type, in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm kinematics, microphysics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for lightning NOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to well isolated convective cells on 3 April 2007 (single cell and multi-cell hailstorm, non-severe multicell) and 6 July 2007

Microphysical modelling of volcanic plumes / Comparisons against groundbased and spaceborne lidar data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jumelet, Julien; Bekki, Slimane; Keckhut, Philippe

2017-04-01

We present a high-resolution isentropic microphysical transport model dedicated to stratospheric aerosols and clouds. The model is based on the MIMOSA model (Modélisation Isentrope du transport Méso-échelle de l'Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection) and adds several modules: a fully explicit size-resolving microphysical scheme to transport aerosol granulometry as passive tracers and an optical module, able to calculate the scattering and extinction properties of particles at given wavelengths. Originally designed for polar stratospheric clouds (composed of sulfuric acid, nitric acid and water vapor), the model is fully capable of rendering the structure and properties of volcanic plumes at the finer scales, assuming complete SO2 oxydation. This link between microphysics and optics also enables the model to take advantage of spaceborne lidar data (i.e. CALIOP) by calculating the 532nm aerosol backscatter coefficient, taking it as the control variable to provide microphysical constraints during the transport. This methodology has been applied to simulate volcanic plumes during relatively recent volcanic eruptions, from the 2010 Merapi to the 2015 Calbuco eruption. Optical calculations are also used for direct comparisons between the model and groundbased lidar stations for validation as well as characterization purposes. We will present the model and the simulation results, along with a focus on the sensitivity to initialisation parameters, considering the need for quasi-real time modelling and forecasts in the case of future eruptions.

MODIS Microphysical Regimes for Examining Apparent Aerosol Effects on Clouds and Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oreopoulos, L.; Cho, N.; Lee, D.; Kato, S.; Lebsock, M. D.; Yuan, T.; Huffman, G. J.

2014-12-01

We use a 10-year record of MODIS Terra and Aqua Level-3 joint histograms of cloud optical thickness (COT) and cloud effective radius (CER) to derive so-called cloud microphysical regimes by means of clustering analysis. The regimes reveal the dominant modes of COT and CER co-variations around the globe for both liquid and ice phases. The clustering analysis is capable of separating regimes so that each is dominated by one of the two water phases and can be associated with previously derived "dynamical" regimes. The microphysical regimes serve as an appropriate basis to study possible effects of aerosols on cloud microphysical changes and precipitation. To this end, we employ MODIS aerosol loading measurements either in terms of aerosol index or aerosol optical depth and spatiotemporally matched precipitation (from either GPCP, TRMM or CloudSat) to examine intra-regime variability, regime transitions from morning (Terra) to afternoon (Aqua), and regime precipitation characteristics for locally low, average, and high aerosol loadings. Breakdowns by ocean/land and geographical zone (e.g., tropics vs. midlatitudes) are essential for physical interpretation of the results. The analysis conducted so far reveals notable differences in apparent characteristics of low- and high-cloud dominated microphysical regimes when in different aerosol environments. The presentation will attempt to examine whether the picture painted by our work is consistent with prevailing expectations, rooted to either modeling or prior observational studies, on how clouds and precipitation respond to distinct aerosol environments.

Intercomparison of microphysical datasets collected from CAIPEEX observations and WRF simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattnaik, S.; Goswami, B.; Kulkarni, J.

2009-12-01

In the first phase of ongoing Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) program of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), intensive cloud microphysical datasets are collected over India during the May through September, 2009. This study is designed to evaluate the forecast skills of existing cloud microphysical parameterization schemes (i.e. single moment/double moments) within the WRF-ARW model (Version 3.1.1) during different intensive observation periods (IOP) over the targeted regions spreading all across India. Basic meteorological and cloud microphysical parameters obtained from the model simulations are validated against the observed data set collected during CAIPEEX program. For this study, we have considered three IOP phases (i.e. May 23-27, June 11-15, July 3-7) carried out over northern, central and western India respectively. This study emphasizes the thrust to understand the mechanism of evolution, intensification and distribution of simulated precipitation forecast upto day four (i.e. 96 hour forecast). Efforts have also been made to carryout few important microphysics sensitivity experiments within the explicit schemes to investigate their respective impact on the formation and distribution of vital cloud parameters (e.g. cloud liquid water, frozen hydrometeors) and model rainfall forecast over the IOP regions. The characteristic features of liquid and frozen hydrometers in the pre-monsoon and monsoon regimes are examined from model forecast as well as from CAIPEEX observation data set for different IOPs. The model is integrated in a triply nested fashion with an innermost nest explicitly resolved at a horizontal resolution of 4km.In this presentation preliminary results from aforementioned research initiatives will be introduced.

Microphysical characterization of long-range transported biomass burning particles from North America at three EARLINET stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Amezcua, Pablo; Guerrero-Rascado, Juan Luis; José Granados-Muñoz, María; Benavent-Oltra, José Antonio; Böckmann, Christine; Samaras, Stefanos; Stachlewska, Iwona S.; Janicka, Łucja; Baars, Holger; Bohlmann, Stephanie; Alados-Arboledas, Lucas

2017-05-01

Strong events of long-range transported biomass burning aerosol were detected during July 2013 at three EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) stations, namely Granada (Spain), Leipzig (Germany) and Warsaw (Poland). Satellite observations from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) instruments, as well as modeling tools such as HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) and NAAPS (Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System), have been used to estimate the sources and transport paths of those North American forest fire smoke particles. A multiwavelength Raman lidar technique was applied to obtain vertically resolved particle optical properties, and further inversion of those properties with a regularization algorithm allowed for retrieving microphysical information on the studied particles. The results highlight the presence of smoke layers of 1-2 km thickness, located at about 5 km a.s.l. altitude over Granada and Leipzig and around 2.5 km a.s.l. at Warsaw. These layers were intense, as they accounted for more than 30 % of the total AOD (aerosol optical depth) in all cases, and presented optical and microphysical features typical for different aging degrees: color ratio of lidar ratios (LR532 / LR355) around 2, α-related ångström exponents of less than 1, effective radii of 0.3 µm and large values of single scattering albedos (SSA), nearly spectrally independent. The intensive microphysical properties were compared with columnar retrievals form co-located AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) stations. The intensity of the layers was also characterized in terms of particle volume concentration, and then an experimental relationship between this magnitude and the particle extinction coefficient was established.

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes. Part 2; Cloud Microphysics and Storm Dynamics Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Xiaowen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Khain, Alexander P.; Simpson, Joanne; Johnson, Daniel E.

2009-01-01

Part I of this paper compares two simulations, one using a bulk and the other a detailed bin microphysical scheme, of a long-lasting, continental mesoscale convective system with leading convection and trailing stratiform region. Diagnostic studies and sensitivity tests are carried out in Part II to explain the simulated contrasts in the spatial and temporal variations by the two microphysical schemes and to understand the interactions between cloud microphysics and storm dynamics. It is found that the fixed raindrop size distribution in the bulk scheme artificially enhances rain evaporation rate and produces a stronger near surface cool pool compared with the bin simulation. In the bulk simulation, cool pool circulation dominates the near-surface environmental wind shear in contrast to the near-balance between cool pool and wind shear in the bin simulation. This is the main reason for the contrasting quasi-steady states simulated in Part I. Sensitivity tests also show that large amounts of fast-falling hail produced in the original bulk scheme not only result in a narrow trailing stratiform region but also act to further exacerbate the strong cool pool simulated in the bulk parameterization. An empirical formula for a correction factor, r(q(sub r)) = 0.11q(sub r)(exp -1.27) + 0.98, is developed to correct the overestimation of rain evaporation in the bulk model, where r is the ratio of the rain evaporation rate between the bulk and bin simulations and q(sub r)(g per kilogram) is the rain mixing ratio. This formula offers a practical fix for the simple bulk scheme in rain evaporation parameterization.

Application of TRMM PR and TMI Measurements to Assess Cloud Microphysical Schemes in the MM5 Model for a Winter Storm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Mei; Braun, Scott A.; Olson, William S.; Persson, P. Ola G.; Bao, Jian-Wen

2009-01-01

. This study employs this method to evaluate the accuracy of the simulated radiative properties by the MM5 model with different microphysical schemes. It is found that the representations of particle density, size, and mass in the different schemes in the MM5 model determine the model s performance when predicting a winter storm over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Schemes lacking moderate density particles (i.e. graupel), with snow flakes that are too large, or with excessive mass of snow or graupel lead to degraded prediction of the radiative properties as observed by the TRMM satellite. This study demonstrates the uniqueness of the combination of both an active microwave sensor (PR) and passive microwave sensor (TMI) onboard TRMM on assessing the accuracy of numerical weather forecasting. It improves our understanding of the physical and radiative properties of different types of precipitation particles and provides suggestions for better representation of cloud and precipitation processes in numerical models. It would, ultimately, contribute to answering questions like "Why did it not rain when the forecast says it would?"

Meteorology, Macrophysics, Microphysics, Microwaves, and Mesoscale Modeling of Mediterranean Mountain Storms: The M8 Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor); Smith, Eric A.

2002-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms can be accomplished by a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, from synoptic scale down through the mesoscale, the cloud macrophysical scale, and ultimately the cloud microphysical scale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. This involves intense convective development, stratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that affect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted in this study by three mountain storms producing damaging floods in northern Italy between 1992 and 2000, developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within a storm domain. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size disi:ributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within hazardous storm environments.

Microphysical Processes Affecting the Pinatubo Volcanic Plume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamill, Patrick; Houben, Howard; Young, Richard; Turco, Richard; Zhao, Jingxia

1996-01-01

In this paper we consider microphysical processes which affect the formation of sulfate particles and their size distribution in a dispersing cloud. A model for the dispersion of the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cloud is described. We then consider a single point in the dispersing cloud and study the effects of nucleation, condensation and coagulation on the time evolution of the particle size distribution at that point.

Microphysical modeling of cirrus. 2: Sensitivity studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, Eric J.; Toon, Owen B.; Westphal, Douglas L.; Kinne, Stefan; Heymsfield, Andrew J.

1994-01-01

The one-dimensional cirrus model described in part 1 of this issue has been used to study the sensitivity of simulated cirrus microphysical and radiative properties to poorly known model parameters, poorly understood physical processes, and environmental conditions. Model parameters and physical processes investigated include nucleation rate, mode of nucleation (e.g., homogeneous freezing of aerosols and liquid droplets or heterogeneous deposition), ice crystal shape, and coagulation. These studies suggest that the leading sources of uncertainty in the model are the phase change (liquid-solid) energy barrier and the ice-water surface energy which dominate the homogeneous freezing nucleation rate and the coagulation sticking efficiency at low temperatures which controls the production of large ice crystals (radii greater than 100 mcirons). Environmental conditions considered in sensitivity tests were CN size distribution, vertical wind speed, and cloud height. We found that (unlike stratus clouds) variations in the total number of condensation nuclei (NC) have little effect on cirrus microphysical and radiative properties, since nucleation occurs only on the largest CN at the tail of the size distribution. The total number of ice crystals which nucleate has little or no relationship to the number of CN present and depends primarily on the temperature and the cooling rate. Stronger updrafts (more rapid cooling) generate higher ice number densities, ice water content, cloud optical depth, and net radiative forcing. Increasing the height of the clouds in the model leads to an increase in ice number density, a decrease in effective radius, and a decrease in ice water content. The most prominent effect of increasing cloud height was a rapid increase in the net cloud radiative forcing which can be attributed to the change in cloud temperature as well as change in cloud ice size distributions. It has long been recognized that changes in cloud height or cloud area have the

The hydrometeor partitioning and microphysical processes over the Pacific Warm Pool in numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yi-Chih; Wang, Pao K.

2017-01-01

Numerical modeling is conducted to study the hydrometeor partitioning and microphysical source and sink processes during a quasi-steady state of thunderstorms over the Pacific Warm Pool by utilizing the microphysical model WISCDYMM to simulate selected storm cases. The results show that liquid-phase hydrometeors dominate thunderstorm evolution over the Pacific Warm Pool. The ratio of ice-phase mass to liquid-phase mass is about 41%: 59%, indicating that ice-phase water is not as significant over the Pacific Warm Pool as the liquid water compared to the larger than 50% in the subtropics and 80% in the US High Plains in a previous study. Sensitivity tests support the dominance of liquid-phase hydrometeors over the Pacific Warm Pool. The major rain sources are the key hail sinks: melting of hail and shedding from hail; whereas the crucial rain sinks are evaporation and accretion by hail. The major snow sources are Bergeron-Findeisen process, transfer of cloud ice to snow and accretion of cloud water; whereas the foremost sink of snow is accretion by hail. The essential hail sources are accretions of rain, cloud water, and snow; whereas the critical hail sinks are melting of hail and shedding from hail. The contribution and ranking of sources and sinks of these precipitates are compared with the previous study. Hydrometeors have their own special microphysical processes in the development and depletion over the Pacific Warm Pool. Microphysical budgets depend on atmospheric dynamical and thermodynamical conditions which determine the partitioning of hydrometeors. This knowledge would benefit the microphysics parameterization in cloud models and cumulus parameterization in global circulation models.

A microphysical pathway analysis to investigate aerosol effects on convective clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heikenfeld, Max; White, Bethan; Labbouz, Laurent; Stier, Philip

2017-04-01

The impact of aerosols on ice- and mixed-phase processes in convective clouds remains highly uncertain, which has strong implications for estimates of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system. The wide range of interacting microphysical processes are still poorly understood and generally not resolved in global climate models. To understand and visualise these processes and to conduct a detailed pathway analysis, we have added diagnostic output of all individual process rates for number and mass mixing ratios to two commonly-used cloud microphysics schemes (Thompson and Morrison) in WRF. This allows us to investigate the response of individual processes to changes in aerosol conditions and the propagation of perturbations throughout the development of convective clouds. Aerosol effects on cloud microphysics could strongly depend on the representation of these interactions in the model. We use different model complexities with regard to aerosol-cloud interactions ranging from simulations with different levels of fixed cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) as a proxy for aerosol, to prognostic CDNC with fixed modal aerosol distributions. Furthermore, we have implemented the HAM aerosol model in WRF-chem to also perform simulations with a fully interactive aerosol scheme. We employ a hierarchy of simulation types to understand the evolution of cloud microphysical perturbations in atmospheric convection. Idealised supercell simulations are chosen to present and test the analysis methods for a strongly confined and well-studied case. We then extend the analysis to large case study simulations of tropical convection over the Amazon rainforest. For both cases we apply our analyses to individually tracked convective cells. Our results show the impact of model uncertainties on the understanding of aerosol-convection interactions and have implications for improving process representation in models.

Aerosol microphysical and radiative effects on continental cloud ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuan; Vogel, Jonathan M.; Lin, Yun; Pan, Bowen; Hu, Jiaxi; Liu, Yangang; Dong, Xiquan; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Yung, Yuk L.; Zhang, Renyi

2018-02-01

Aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in the current climate assessment. Much of the complexity arises from the non-monotonic responses of clouds, precipitation and radiative fluxes to aerosol perturbations under various meteorological conditions. In this study, an aerosol-aware WRF model is used to investigate the microphysical and radiative effects of aerosols in three weather systems during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Observational Period campaign at the US Southern Great Plains. Three simulated cloud ensembles include a low-pressure deep convective cloud system, a collection of less-precipitating stratus and shallow cumulus, and a cold frontal passage. The WRF simulations are evaluated by several ground-based measurements. The microphysical properties of cloud hydrometeors, such as their mass and number concentrations, generally show monotonic trends as a function of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. Aerosol radiative effects do not influence the trends of cloud microphysics, except for the stratus and shallow cumulus cases where aerosol semi-direct effects are identified. The precipitation changes by aerosols vary with the cloud types and their evolving stages, with a prominent aerosol invigoration effect and associated enhanced precipitation from the convective sources. The simulated aerosol direct effect suppresses precipitation in all three cases but does not overturn the aerosol indirect effect. Cloud fraction exhibits much smaller sensitivity (typically less than 2%) to aerosol perturbations, and the responses vary with aerosol concentrations and cloud regimes. The surface shortwave radiation shows a monotonic decrease by increasing aerosols, while the magnitude of the decrease depends on the cloud type.

Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

2013-01-01

Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem

Microphysics in the Multi-Scale Modeling Systems with Unified Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, J.; Lamg, S.; Matsui, T.; Shen, B.; Zeng, X.; Shi, R.

2011-01-01

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the microphysics developments of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the heavy precipitation processes will be presented.

Development of Two-Moment Cloud Microphysics for Liquid and Ice Within the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barahona, Donifan; Molod, Andrea M.; Bacmeister, Julio; Nenes, Athanasios; Gettelman, Andrew; Morrison, Hugh; Phillips, Vaughan,; Eichmann, Andrew F.

2013-01-01

This work presents the development of a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme within the version 5 of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5). The scheme includes the implementation of a comprehensive stratiform microphysics module, a new cloud coverage scheme that allows ice supersaturation and a new microphysics module embedded within the moist convection parameterization of GEOS-5. Comprehensive physically-based descriptions of ice nucleation, including homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing, and liquid droplet activation are implemented to describe the formation of cloud particles in stratiform clouds and convective cumulus. The effect of preexisting ice crystals on the formation of cirrus clouds is also accounted for. A new parameterization of the subgrid scale vertical velocity distribution accounting for turbulence and gravity wave motion is developed. The implementation of the new microphysics significantly improves the representation of liquid water and ice in GEOS-5. Evaluation of the model shows agreement of the simulated droplet and ice crystal effective and volumetric radius with satellite retrievals and in situ observations. The simulated global distribution of supersaturation is also in agreement with observations. It was found that when using the new microphysics the fraction of condensate that remains as liquid follows a sigmoidal increase with temperature which differs from the linear increase assumed in most models and is in better agreement with available observations. The performance of the new microphysics in reproducing the observed total cloud fraction, longwave and shortwave cloud forcing, and total precipitation is similar to the operational version of GEOS-5 and in agreement with satellite retrievals. However the new microphysics tends to underestimate the coverage of persistent low level stratocumulus. Sensitivity studies showed that the simulated cloud properties are robust to moderate variation in cloud microphysical parameters

Microphysics in Multi-scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2012-01-01

Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the microphysics development and its performance for the multi-scale modeling system will be presented.

Retrievals of Ice Cloud Microphysical Properties of Deep Convective Systems using Radar Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, J.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.; Wang, J.; Homeyer, C. R.

2015-12-01

This study presents innovative algorithms for retrieving ice cloud microphysical properties of Deep Convective Systems (DCSs) using Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) reflectivity and newly derived empirical relationships from aircraft in situ measurements in Wang et al. (2015) during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). With composite gridded NEXRAD radar reflectivity, four-dimensional (space-time) ice cloud microphysical properties of DCSs are retrieved, which is not possible from either in situ sampling at a single altitude or from vertical pointing radar measurements. For this study, aircraft in situ measurements provide the best-estimated ice cloud microphysical properties for validating the radar retrievals. Two statistical comparisons between retrieved and aircraft in situ measured ice microphysical properties are conducted from six selected cases during MC3E. For the temporal-averaged method, the averaged ice water content (IWC) and median mass diameter (Dm) from aircraft in situ measurements are 0.50 g m-3 and 1.51 mm, while the retrievals from radar reflectivity have negative biases of 0.12 g m-3 (24%) and 0.02 mm (1.3%) with correlations of 0.71 and 0.48, respectively. For the spatial-averaged method, the IWC retrievals are closer to the aircraft results (0.51 vs. 0.47 g m-3) with a positive bias of 8.5%, whereas the Dm retrievals are larger than the aircraft results (1.65 mm vs. 1.51 mm) with a positive bias of 9.3%. The retrieved IWCs decrease from ~0.6 g m-3 at 5 km to ~0.15 g m-3 at 13 km, and Dm values decrease from ~2 mm to ~0.7 mm at the same levels. In general, the aircraft in situ measured IWC and Dm values at each level are within one standard derivation of retrieved properties. Good agreements between microphysical properties measured from aircraft and retrieved from radar reflectivity measurements indicate the reasonable accuracy of our retrievals.

Microphysically derived expressions for rate-and-state friction and fault stability parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jianye; Niemeijer, Andre; Spiers, Christopher

2017-04-01

Rate-and-state friction (RSF) laws and associated parameters are extensively applied to fault mechanics, mainly on an empirical basis with a limited understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms. We recently established a general microphysical model [Chen and Spiers, 2016], for describing both steady-state and transient frictional behavior of any granular fault gouge material undergoing deformation by granular flow plus an arbitrary creep mechanism at grain contacts, such as pressure solution. We further showed that the model is able to reproduce typical experimental frictional results, namely "velocity stepping" and "slide-hold-slide" sequences, in satisfactory agreement with the main features and trends observed. Here, we extend our model, which we explored only numerically thus far, to obtain analytical solutions for the classical rate and state friction parameters from a purely microphysical modelling basis. By analytically solving the constitutive equations of the model under various boundary conditions, physically meaningful, theoretical expressions for the RSF parameters, i.e. a, b and Dc, are obtained. We also apply linear stability analysis to a spring-slider system, describing interface friction using our model, to yield analytical expressions of the critical stiffness (Kc) and critical recurrence wavelength (Wc) of the system. The values of a , b and Dc, as well as Kc and Wc, predicted by these expressions agree well with the numerical modeling results and acceptably with values obtained from experiments, on calcite for instance. Inserting the parameters obtained into classical RSF laws (slowness and slip laws) and conducting forward modelling gives simulated friction behavior that is fully consistent with the direct predictions of our numerically implemented model. Numerical tests with friction obeying our model show that the slip stability of fault motion exhibits a transition from stable sliding, via self-sustained oscillations, to stick slips

The Influence of Microphysical Cloud Parameterization on Microwave Brightness Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skofronick-Jackson, Gail M.; Gasiewski, Albin J.; Wang, James R.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The microphysical parameterization of clouds and rain-cells plays a central role in atmospheric forward radiative transfer models used in calculating passive microwave brightness temperatures. The absorption and scattering properties of a hydrometeor-laden atmosphere are governed by particle phase, size distribution, aggregate density., shape, and dielectric constant. This study identifies the sensitivity of brightness temperatures with respect to the microphysical cloud parameterization. Cloud parameterizations for wideband (6-410 GHz observations of baseline brightness temperatures were studied for four evolutionary stages of an oceanic convective storm using a five-phase hydrometeor model in a planar-stratified scattering-based radiative transfer model. Five other microphysical cloud parameterizations were compared to the baseline calculations to evaluate brightness temperature sensitivity to gross changes in the hydrometeor size distributions and the ice-air-water ratios in the frozen or partly frozen phase. The comparison shows that, enlarging the rain drop size or adding water to the partly Frozen hydrometeor mix warms brightness temperatures by up to .55 K at 6 GHz. The cooling signature caused by ice scattering intensifies with increasing ice concentrations and at higher frequencies. An additional comparison to measured Convection and Moisture LA Experiment (CAMEX 3) brightness temperatures shows that in general all but, two parameterizations produce calculated T(sub B)'s that fall within the observed clear-air minima and maxima. The exceptions are for parameterizations that, enhance the scattering characteristics of frozen hydrometeors.

The role of ice particles in the microphysics and dynamics of deep convective storms in various latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y. C.; Wang, P. K.

2017-12-01

The role of ice particles in the microphysics and dynamics of deep convective storms in various latitudes Yi-Chih Huang and Pao K. Wang Ice particles contribute to the microphysics and dynamics of severe storms in various regions of the world to a degree that is not commonly recognized. This study is motivated by the need to understand the role of ice particles plays in the development of severe storms so that their impact on various aspects of the storm behavior can be properly assessed. In this study, we perform numerical simulations of thunderstorms using a cloud resolving model WISCDYMM that includes parameterized microphysical processes to understand the role played by ice processes. We simulate thunderstorms occurred over various regions of the world including tropics, substropics and midlatitudes. We then perform statistical analysis of the simulated results to show the formation of various categories of hydrometeors to reveal the importance of ice processes. We will show that ice hydrometeors (cloud ice, snow, graupel/hail) account for 80% of the total hydrometeor mass for the High Plains storms but 50% for the subtropical storms. In addition, the melting of large ice particles (graupel and hail) is the major production process of rain in tropical storms although the ratio of ice-phase mass is responsible for only 40% of the total hydrometeor mass. Furthermore, hydrometeors have their own special microphysical processes in development and depletion over various latitudes. Microphysical structures depend on atmospheric dynamical and thermodynamical conditions which determine the partitioning of hydrometeors. This knowledge would benefit the microphysics parameterization in cloud models and cumulus parameterization in global circulation models.

The potential effects of volcanic aerosols on cirrus cloud microphysics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, Eric J.; Toon, Owen B.

1992-01-01

The potential impact of volcanic aerosols on nucleation of ice crystals in upper tropospheric cirrus clouds is examined from a microphysical perspective. The sulfuric acid aerosols which form in the stratosphere are presumably transported into the troposphere by sedimentation and tropopause folding. The tropospheric volcanic aerosol size distribution is estimated from 10-micron lidar backscatter and in situ measurements. Microphysical simulations suggest that at temperatures below about -50 C the concentration of ice crystals which nucleate may be as much as a factor of 5 larger when volcanic aerosols are present. The simulations suggest that the presence of volcanic aerosols may increase the net radiative forcing (surface warming) of certain types of cirrus near the tropopause by as much as 8 W/sq m. Further observations are required to determine whether these effects actually occur, and their global impact.

Minimalist Model of Ice Microphysics in Mixed-phase Stratiform Clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, F.; Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Shaw, Raymond A.

The question of whether persistent ice crystal precipitation from super cooled layer clouds can be explained by time-dependent, stochastic ice nucleation is explored using an approximate, analytical model, and a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model. The updraft velocity in the cloud defines an accumulation zone, where small ice particles cannot fall out until they are large enough, which will increase the residence time of ice particles in the cloud. Ice particles reach a quasi-steady state between growth by vapor deposition and fall speed at cloud base. The analytical model predicts that ice water content (wi) has a 2.5 power lawmore » relationship with ice number concentration ni. wi and ni from a LES cloud model with stochastic ice nucleation also confirm the 2.5 power law relationship. The prefactor of the power law is proportional to the ice nucleation rate, and therefore provides a quantitative link to observations of ice microphysical properties.« less

Parameterizations of the Vertical Variability of Tropical Cirrus Cloud Microphysical and Optical Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Twohy, Cynthia; Heymsfield, Andrew; Gerber, Hermann

2005-01-01

Our multi-investigator effort was targeted at the following areas of interest to CRYSTAL-FACE: (1) the water budgets of anvils, (2) parameterizations of the particle size distributions and related microphysical and optical properties (3) characterizations of the primary ice particle habits, (4) the relationship of the optical properties to the microphysics and particle habits, and (5) investigation of the ice-nuclei types and mechanisms in anvil cirrus. Dr. Twohy's effort focused on (l), (2), and (5), with the measurement and analysis of ice water content and cirrus residual nuclei using the counterflow virtual impactor (CVI).

LES study of microphysical variability bias in shallow cumulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kogan, Yefim

2017-05-01

Subgrid-scale (SGS) variability of cloud microphysical variables over the mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model has been evaluated by means of joint probability distribution functions (JPDFs). The latter were obtained using dynamically balanced Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model dataset from a case of marine trade cumulus initialized with soundings from Rain in Cumulus Over the Ocean (RICO) field project. Bias in autoconversion and accretion rates from different formulations of the JPDFs was analyzed. Approximating the 2-D PDF using a generic (fixed-in-time), but variable-in-height JPDFs give an acceptable level of accuracy, whereas neglecting the SGS variability altogether results in a substantial underestimate of the grid-mean total conversion rate and producing negative bias in rain water. Nevertheless the total effect on rain formation may be uncertain in the long run due to the fact that the negative bias in rain water may be counterbalanced by the positive bias in cloud water. Consequently, the overall effect of SGS neglect needs to be investigated in direct simulations with a NWP model.

Impacts of Microphysical Scheme on Convective and Stratiform Characteristics in Two High Precipitation Squall Line Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Di; Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike; Feng, Zhe; Kennedy, Aaron; Mullendore, Gretchen; Gilmore, Matthew; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2013-01-01

This study investigates the impact of snow, graupel, and hail processes on simulated squall lines over the Southern Great Plains in the United States. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate two squall line events in Oklahoma during May 2007, and the simulations are validated against radar and surface observations. Several microphysics schemes are tested in this study, including the WRF 5-Class Microphysics (WSM5), WRF 6-Class Microphysics (WSM6), Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Three Ice (3-ice) with graupel, Goddard Two Ice (2-ice), and Goddard 3-ice hail schemes. Simulated surface precipitation is sensitive to the microphysics scheme when the graupel or hail categories are included. All of the 3-ice schemes overestimate the total precipitation with WSM6 having the largest bias. The 2-ice schemes, without a graupel/hail category, produce less total precipitation than the 3-ice schemes. By applying a radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm, we find that including graupel/hail processes increases the convective areal coverage, precipitation intensity, updraft, and downdraft intensities, and reduces the stratiform areal coverage and precipitation intensity. For vertical structures, simulations have higher reflectivity values distributed aloft than the observed values in both the convective and stratiform regions. Three-ice schemes produce more high reflectivity values in convective regions, while 2-ice schemes produce more high reflectivity values in stratiform regions. In addition, this study has demonstrated that the radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm can reasonably identify WRF-simulated precipitation, wind, and microphysical fields in both convective and stratiform regions.

Dynamic downscaling over western Himalayas: Impact of cloud microphysics schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

2018-03-01

Due to lack of observation data in the region of inhomogeneous terrain of the Himalayas, detailed climate of Himalayas is still unknown. Global reanalysis data are too coarse to represent the hydroclimate over the region with sharp orography gradient in the western Himalayas. In the present study, dynamic downscaling of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis-Interim (ERA-I) dataset over the western Himalayas using high-resolution Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model has been carried out. Sensitivity studies have also been carried out using convection and microphysics parameterization schemes. The WRF model simulations have been compared against ERA-I and available station observations. Analysis of the results suggests that the WRF model has simulated the hydroclimate of the region well. It is found that in the simulations that the impact of convection scheme is more during summer months than in winter. Examination of simulated results using various microphysics schemes reveal that the WRF single-moment class-6 (WSM6) scheme simulates more precipitation on the upwind region of the high mountain than that in the Morrison and Thompson schemes during the winter period. Vertical distribution of various hydrometeors shows that there are large differences in mixing ratios of ice, snow and graupel in the simulations with different microphysics schemes. The ice mixing ratio in Morrison scheme is more than WSM6 above 400 hPa. The Thompson scheme favors formation of more snow than WSM6 or Morrison schemes while the Morrison scheme has more graupel formation than other schemes.

Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreekanth, T. S.

Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three

The microphysical properties of ice fog measured in urban environments of Interior Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, Carl G.; Stuefer, Martin; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Kim, Chang Ki

2013-10-01

microphysical properties of ice fog were measured at two sites during a small field campaign in January and February of 2012 in Interior Alaska. The National Center for Atmospheric Research Video Ice Particle Sampler probe and Formvar (polyvinyl formal)-coated microscope slides were used to sample airborne ice particles at two polluted sites in the Fairbanks region. Both sites were significantly influenced by anthropogenic emission and additional water vapor from nearby open water power plant cooling ponds. Measurements show that ice fog particles were generally droxtal shaped (faceted, quasi-spherical) for sub-10 µm particles, while plate-shaped crystals were the most frequently observed particles between 10 and 50 µm. A visibility cutoff of 3 km was used to separate ice fog events from other observations which were significantly influenced by larger (50-150 µm) diamond dust particles. The purpose of this study is to more realistically characterize ice fog microphysical properties in order to facilitate better model predictions of the onset of ice fog in polluted environments. Parameterizations for mass and projected area are developed and used to estimate particle terminal velocity. Dimensional characteristics are based on particle geometry and indicated that ice fog particles have significantly lower densities than water droplets as well as reduced cross-sectional areas, the net result being that terminal velocities are estimated to be less than half the value of those calculated for water droplets. Particle size distributions are characterized using gamma functions and have a shape factor (μ) of between -0.5 and -1.0 for polluted ice fog conditions.

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carey, Lawrence D.; Koshak, William J.; Peterson, Harold S.; Shultz, Elise; Matthee, Retha; Shultz, Christopher J.; Petersen, Walter A.; Bain, Lamont

2013-01-01

To investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type (intracloud (IC) vs. cloud-to-ground (CG)) and extent.

Predicting Career Advancement with Structural Equation Modelling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heimler, Ronald; Rosenberg, Stuart; Morote, Elsa-Sofia

2012-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to use the authors' prior findings concerning basic employability skills in order to determine which skills best predict career advancement potential. Design/methodology/approach: Utilizing survey responses of human resource managers, the employability skills showing the largest relationships to career…

Microphysical variability of Amazonian deep convective cores observed by CloudSat and simulated by a multi-scale modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brant Dodson, J.; Taylor, Patrick C.; Branson, Mark

2018-05-01

Recently launched cloud observing satellites provide information about the vertical structure of deep convection and its microphysical characteristics. In this study, CloudSat reflectivity data is stratified by cloud type, and the contoured frequency by altitude diagrams reveal a double-arc structure in deep convective cores (DCCs) above 8 km. This suggests two distinct hydrometeor modes (snow versus hail/graupel) controlling variability in reflectivity profiles. The day-night contrast in the double arcs is about four times larger than the wet-dry season contrast. Using QuickBeam, the vertical reflectivity structure of DCCs is analyzed in two versions of the Superparameterized Community Atmospheric Model (SP-CAM) with single-moment (no graupel) and double-moment (with graupel) microphysics. Double-moment microphysics shows better agreement with observed reflectivity profiles; however, neither model variant captures the double-arc structure. Ultimately, the results show that simulating realistic DCC vertical structure and its variability requires accurate representation of ice microphysics, in particular the hail/graupel modes, though this alone is insufficient.

Microphysics and dynamics of the gamma-ray burst 121024A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varela, K.; van Eerten, H.; Greiner, J.; Schady, P.; Elliott, J.; Sudilovsky, V.; Krühler, T.; van der Horst, A. J.; Bolmer, J.; Knust, F.; Agurto, C.; Azagra, F.; Belloche, A.; Bertoldi, F.; De Breuck, C.; Delvaux, C.; Filgas, R.; Graham, J. F.; Kann, D. A.; Klose, S.; Menten, K. M.; Nicuesa Guelbenzu, A.; Rau, A.; Rossi, A.; Schmidl, S.; Schuller, F.; Schweyer, T.; Tanga, M.; Weiss, A.; Wiseman, P.; Wyrowski, F.

2016-05-01

Aims: The aim of the study is to constrain the physics of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) by analysing the multi-wavelength afterglow data set of GRB 121024A that covers the full range from radio to X-rays. Methods: Using multi-epoch broad-band observations of the GRB 121024A afterglow, we measured the three characteristic break frequencies of the synchrotron spectrum. We used six epochs of combined XRT and GROND data to constrain the temporal slopes, the dust extinction, the X-ray absorption, and the spectral slope with high accuracy. Two more epochs of combined data from XRT, GROND, APEX, CARMA, and EVLA were used to set constraints on the break frequencies and therefore on the micro-physical and dynamical parameters. Results: The XRT and GROND light curves show a simultaneous and achromatic break at around 49 ks. As a result, the crossing of the synchrotron cooling break is no suitable explanation for the break in the light curve. The multi-wavelength data allow us to test two plausible scenarios explaining the break: a jet break, and the end of energy injection. The jet-break scenario requires a hard electron spectrum, a very low cooling break frequency, and a non-spreading jet. The energy injection avoids these problems, but requires ɛe > 1 (k = 2), spherical outflow, and ɛB < 10-9. Conclusions: In light of the extreme microphysical parameters required by the energy-injection model, we favour a jet-break scenario where νm < νsa to explain the observations. This scenario gives physically meaningful microphysical parameters, and it also naturally explains the reported detection of linear and circular polarisation.

Illustration of microphysical processes in Amazonian deep convective clouds in the gamma phase space: introduction and potential applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cecchini, Micael A.; Machado, Luiz A. T.; Wendisch, Manfred; Costa, Anja; Krämer, Martina; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Afchine, Armin; Albrecht, Rachel I.; Artaxo, Paulo; Borrmann, Stephan; Fütterer, Daniel; Klimach, Thomas; Mahnke, Christoph; Martin, Scot T.; Minikin, Andreas; Molleker, Sergej; Pardo, Lianet H.; Pöhlker, Christopher; Pöhlker, Mira L.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Weinzierl, Bernadett

2017-12-01

The behavior of tropical clouds remains a major open scientific question, resulting in poor representation by models. One challenge is to realistically reproduce cloud droplet size distributions (DSDs) and their evolution over time and space. Many applications, not limited to models, use the gamma function to represent DSDs. However, even though the statistical characteristics of the gamma parameters have been widely studied, there is almost no study dedicated to understanding the phase space of this function and the associated physics. This phase space can be defined by the three parameters that define the DSD intercept, shape, and curvature. Gamma phase space may provide a common framework for parameterizations and intercomparisons. Here, we introduce the phase space approach and its characteristics, focusing on warm-phase microphysical cloud properties and the transition to the mixed-phase layer. We show that trajectories in this phase space can represent DSD evolution and can be related to growth processes. Condensational and collisional growth may be interpreted as pseudo-forces that induce displacements in opposite directions within the phase space. The actually observed movements in the phase space are a result of the combination of such pseudo-forces. Additionally, aerosol effects can be evaluated given their significant impact on DSDs. The DSDs associated with liquid droplets that favor cloud glaciation can be delimited in the phase space, which can help models to adequately predict the transition to the mixed phase. We also consider possible ways to constrain the DSD in two-moment bulk microphysics schemes, in which the relative dispersion parameter of the DSD can play a significant role. Overall, the gamma phase space approach can be an invaluable tool for studying cloud microphysical evolution and can be readily applied in many scenarios that rely on gamma DSDs.

Evaluation of Cloud Microphysics Simulated using a Meso-Scale Model Coupled with a Spectral Bin Microphysical Scheme through Comparison with Observation Data by Ship-Borne Doppler and Space-Borne W-Band Radars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iguchi, T.; Nakajima, T.; Khain, A. P.; Saito, K.; Takemura, T.; Okamoto, H.; Nishizawa, T.; Tao, W.-K.

2012-01-01

Equivalent radar reflectivity factors (Ze) measured by W-band radars are directly compared with the corresponding values calculated from a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic meso-scale model coupled with a spectral-bin-microphysical (SBM) scheme for cloud. Three case studies are the objects of this research: one targets a part of ship-borne observation using 95 GHz Doppler radar over the Pacific Ocean near Japan in May 2001; other two are aimed at two short segments of space-borne observation by the cloud profiling radar on CloudSat in November 2006. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations reproduce general features of vertical structures of Ze and Doppler velocity. A main problem in the reproducibility is an overestimation of Ze in ice cloud layers. A frequency analysis shows a strong correlation between ice water contents (IWC) and Ze in the simulation; this characteristic is similar to those shown in prior on-site studies. From comparing with the empirical correlations by the prior studies, the simulated Ze is overestimated than the corresponding values in the studies at the same IWC. Whereas the comparison of Doppler velocities suggests that large-size snowflakes are necessary for producing large velocities under the freezing level and hence rules out the possibility that an overestimation of snow size causes the overestimation of Ze. Based on the results of several sensitivity tests, we conclude that the source of the overestimation is a bias in the microphysical calculation of Ze or an overestimation of IWC. To identify the source of the problems needs further validation research with other follow-up observations.

LACIS-T - A humid wind tunnel for investigating the Interactions between Cloud Microphysics and Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigtländer, Jens; Niedermeier, Dennis; Siebert, Holger; Shaw, Raymond; Schumacher, Jörg; Stratmann, Frank

2017-04-01

To improve the fundamental and quantitative understanding of the interactions between cloud microphysical and turbulent processes, the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS) has built up a new humid wind tunnel (LACIS-T). LACIS-T allows for the investigation of cloud microphysical processes, such as cloud droplet activation and freezing, under-well defined thermodynamic and turbulent flow conditions. It therewith allows for the straight forward continuation, extension, and completion of the cloud microphysics related investigations carried out at the Leipzig Aerosol Cloud Interaction Simulator (LACIS) under laminar flow conditions. Characterization of the wind tunnel with respect to flow, thermodynamics, and droplet microphysics is carried out with probes mounted inside (pitot tube and hot-wire anemometer for mean velocity and fluctuations, Pt100 sensor for mean temperature, cold-wire sensor for temperature fluctuations is in progress, as well as a dew-point mirror for mean water vapor concentration, a Lyman-alpha sensor for water vapor fluctuations is in progress) the measurement section, and from outside with optical detection methods (a laser light sheet is available for cloud droplet visualization, a digital holography system for detection of cloud droplet size distributions will be installed for tests in February 2017), respectively. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations have been carried out for defining suitable experimental conditions and assisting the interpretation of the experimental data. In this work, LACIS-T, its fundamental operating principle, and first preliminary results from ongoing characterization efforts will be presented.

Using Instrument Simulators and a Satellite Database to Evaluate Microphysical Assumptions in High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Rita

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Chao, Y.; Chau, A. H.; Haddad, Z. S.; Knosp, B.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P.; Martin, J. M.; Poulsen, W. L.; Rodriguez, E.; Stiles, B. W.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q.

2009-12-01

Improving forecasting of hurricane intensity remains a significant challenge for the research and operational communities. Many factors determine a tropical cyclone’s intensity. Ultimately, though, intensity is dependent on the magnitude and distribution of the latent heating that accompanies the hydrometeor production during the convective process. Hence, the microphysical processes and their representation in hurricane models are of crucial importance for accurately simulating hurricane intensity and evolution. The accurate modeling of the microphysical processes becomes increasingly important when running high-resolution models that should properly reflect the convective processes in the hurricane eyewall. There are many microphysical parameterizations available today. However, evaluating their performance and selecting the most representative ones remains a challenge. Several field campaigns were focused on collecting in situ microphysical observations to help distinguish between different modeling approaches and improve on the most promising ones. However, these point measurements cannot adequately reflect the space and time correlations characteristic of the convective processes. An alternative approach to evaluating microphysical assumptions is to use multi-parameter remote sensing observations of the 3D storm structure and evolution. In doing so, we could compare modeled to retrieved geophysical parameters. The satellite retrievals, however, carry their own uncertainty. To increase the fidelity of the microphysical evaluation results, we can use instrument simulators to produce satellite observables from the model fields and compare to the observed. This presentation will illustrate how instrument simulators can be used to discriminate between different microphysical assumptions. We will compare and contrast the members of high-resolution ensemble WRF model simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005), each member reflecting different microphysical assumptions

Upper-level enhancement of microphysical processes in extratropical cyclones observed during OLYMPEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, A.; McMurdie, L. A.; Houze, R.; Zagrodnik, J. P.; Schuldt, T.; Chaplin, M.

2017-12-01

Data collected during the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) of fall 2015-winter 2016 offer a unique opportunity to document enhancement of precipitation on the windward side of a mountain range as mid-latitude cyclones encountered the complex terrain of the Olympic Mountains. During the campaign, extensive instrumentation was deployed, including ground-based dual-polarization Doppler radars on the windward and leeward sides of the mountains and research aircraft providing in situ microphysical measurements and triple-frequency radar data over the ground-based sites and highest elevations. These datasets provide unprecedented detail on microphysical and dynamical processes associated with precipitation enhancement. Previous studies of precipitation enhancement over mountains have focused on surface rainfall amounts. However, the airflow over the terrain affects precipitation throughout the vertical columns of the atmosphere passing over the mountains. The OLYMPEX data were collected in a way that allows the mechanisms leading to enhancement to be examined at all levels. In particular, NASA's S-band and the NSF/CSWR DOW6 X-band dual-polarization radars provided high-resolution vertical cross sections in sectors upwind and over the mountains. The degree of upper-level enhancement seen in these radar data was most pronounced when the integrated vapor transport was strong, stability was moist neutral, and melting levels were relatively high. These conditions were often found within the warm sectors of the mid-latitude cyclones observed in OLYMPEX. Within widespread stratiform echo, radar data revealed layers of enhanced differential reflectivity aloft in addition to the enhanced reflectivity. In situ microphysical probe data from the University of North Dakota Citation aircraft were obtained in the context of these ground-based radar observations, which along with observations from the APR3 radar aboard the DC8 research aircraft, provide a unique dataset for

Coupling spectral-bin cloud microphysics with the MOSAIC aerosol model in WRF-Chem: Methodology and results for marine stratocumulus clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Wenhua; Fan, Jiwen; Easter, R. C.; Yang, Qing; Zhao, Chun; Ghan, Steven J.

2016-09-01

Aerosol-cloud interaction processes can be represented more physically with bin cloud microphysics relative to bulk microphysical parameterizations. However, due to computational power limitations in the past, bin cloud microphysics was often run with very simple aerosol treatments. The purpose of this study is to represent better aerosol-cloud interaction processes in the Chemistry version of Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF-Chem) at convection-permitting scales by coupling spectral-bin cloud microphysics (SBM) with the MOSAIC sectional aerosol model. A flexible interface is built that exchanges cloud and aerosol information between them. The interface contains a new bin aerosol activation approach, which replaces the treatments in the original SBM. It also includes the modified aerosol resuspension and in-cloud wet removal processes with the droplet loss tendencies and precipitation fluxes from SBM. The newly coupled system is evaluated for two marine stratocumulus cases over the Southeast Pacific Ocean with either a simplified aerosol setup or full-chemistry. We compare the aerosol activation process in the newly coupled SBM-MOSAIC against the SBM simulation without chemistry using a simplified aerosol setup, and the results show consistent activation rates. A longer time simulation reinforces that aerosol resuspension through cloud drop evaporation plays an important role in replenishing aerosols and impacts cloud and precipitation in marine stratocumulus clouds. Evaluation of the coupled SBM-MOSAIC with full-chemistry using aircraft measurements suggests that the new model works realistically for the marine stratocumulus clouds, and improves the simulation of cloud microphysical properties compared to a simulation using MOSAIC coupled with the Morrison two-moment microphysics.

Cirrus microphysics and radiative transfer: Cloud field study on October 28, 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinne, Stefan; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Valero, Francisco P. J.; Sassen, Kenneth; Spinhirne, James D.

1990-01-01

The radiative properties of cirrus clouds present one of the unresolved problems in weather and climate research. Uncertainties in ice particle amount and size and, also, the general inability to model the single scattering properties of their usually complex particle shapes, prevent accurate model predictions. For an improved understanding of cirrus radiative effects, field experiments, as those of the Cirrus IFO of FIRE, are necessary. Simultaneous measurements of radiative fluxes and cirrus microphysics at multiple cirrus cloud altitudes allows the pitting of calculated versus measured vertical flux profiles; with the potential to judge current cirrus cloud modeling. Most of the problems in this study are linked to the inhomogeneity of the cloud field. Thus, only studies on more homogeneous cirrus cloud cases promises a possibility to improve current cirrus parameterizations. Still, the current inability to detect small ice particles will remain as a considerable handicap.

Minimalist model of ice microphysics in mixed-phase stratiform clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Fan; Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Shaw, Raymond A.

2013-07-01

The question of whether persistent ice crystal precipitation from supercooled layer clouds can be explained by time-dependent, stochastic ice nucleation is explored using an approximate, analytical model and a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model. The updraft velocity in the cloud defines an accumulation zone, where small ice particles cannot fall out until they are large enough, which will increase the residence time of ice particles in the cloud. Ice particles reach a quasi-steady state between growth by vapor deposition and fall speed at cloud base. The analytical model predicts that ice water content (wi) has a 2.5 power-law relationship with ice number concentration (ni). wi and ni from a LES cloud model with stochastic ice nucleation confirm the 2.5 power-law relationship, and initial indications of the scaling law are observed in data from the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign. The prefactor of the power law is proportional to the ice nucleation rate and therefore provides a quantitative link to observations of ice microphysical properties.

An observation of sea-spray microphysics by airborne Doppler radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fairall, C. W.; Pezoa, S.; Moran, K.; Wolfe, D.

2014-05-01

This paper describes observations and analysis of Doppler radar data from a down-looking 94 GHz (W-Band) system operated from a NOAA WP-3 Orion research aircraft in Tropical Storm (TS) Karen. The flight took place on 5 October 2013; Karen had weakened with maximum winds around 20 m s-1. Doppler spectral moments from the radar were processed to retrieve sea-spray microphysical properties (drop size and liquid water mass concentration) profiles in the height range 75-300 m above the sea surface. In the high wind speed regions of TS Karen (U10 > 15 m s-1), sea spray was observed with a nominal mass-mode radius of about 40 µm, a radar-weighted gravitational fall velocity of about 1 m s-1, and a mass concentration of about 10-3 gm-3 at 75 m. Spray-drop mass concentration declined with height to values of about 10-4 gm-3 at 300 m. Drop mass decreased slightly more slowly with increasing height than predicted by surface-layer similarity theory for a balance of turbulent diffusion vs fall velocity.

Retrieval of radiative and microphysical properties of clouds from multispectral infrared measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwabuchi, Hironobu; Saito, Masanori; Tokoro, Yuka; Putri, Nurfiena Sagita; Sekiguchi, Miho

2016-12-01

Satellite remote sensing of the macroscopic, microphysical, and optical properties of clouds are useful for studying spatial and temporal variations of clouds at various scales and constraining cloud physical processes in climate and weather prediction models. Instead of using separate independent algorithms for different cloud properties, a unified, optimal estimation-based cloud retrieval algorithm is developed and applied to moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations using ten thermal infrared bands. The model considers sensor configurations, background surface and atmospheric profile, and microphysical and optical models of ice and liquid cloud particles and radiative transfer in a plane-parallel, multilayered atmosphere. Measurement and model errors are thoroughly quantified from direct comparisons of clear-sky observations over the ocean with model calculations. Performance tests by retrieval simulations show that ice cloud properties are retrieved with high accuracy when cloud optical thickness (COT) is between 0.1 and 10. Cloud-top pressure is inferred with uncertainty lower than 10 % when COT is larger than 0.3. Applying the method to a tropical cloud system and comparing the results with the MODIS Collection 6 cloud product shows good agreement for ice cloud optical thickness when COT is less than about 5. Cloud-top height agrees well with estimates obtained by the CO2 slicing method used in the MODIS product. The present algorithm can detect optically thin parts at the edges of high clouds well in comparison with the MODIS product, in which these parts are recognized as low clouds by the infrared window method. The cloud thermodynamic phase in the present algorithm is constrained by cloud-top temperature, which tends not to produce results with an ice cloud that is too warm and liquid cloud that is too cold.

Evaluation of Microphysics and Cumulus Schemes of WRF for Forecasting of Heavy Monsoon Rainfall over the Southeastern Hilly Region of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md Alfi; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful

2018-05-01

Accurate forecasting of heavy rainfall is crucial for the improvement of flood warning to prevent loss of life and property damage due to flash-flood-related landslides in the hilly region of Bangladesh. Forecasting heavy rainfall events is challenging where microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes of Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model play an important role. In this study, a comparison was made between observed and simulated rainfall using 19 different combinations of microphysics and cumulus schemes available in WRF over Bangladesh. Two severe rainfall events during 11th June 2007 and 24-27th June 2012, over the eastern hilly region of Bangladesh, were selected for performance evaluation using a number of indicators. A combination of the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme with Tiedtke cumulus scheme is found as the most suitable scheme for reproducing those events. Another combination of the single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme with New Grell 3D cumulus schemes also showed reasonable performance in forecasting heavy rainfall over this region. The sensitivity analysis confirms that cumulus schemes play a greater role than microphysics schemes for reproducing the heavy rainfall events using WRF.

The Microphysical Properties of Convective Precipitation Over the Tibetan Plateau by a Subkilometer Resolution Cloud-Resolving Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Wenhua; Liu, Liping; Li, Jian; Lu, Chunsong

2018-03-01

The microphysical properties of convective precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau are unique because of the extremely high topography and special atmospheric conditions. In this study, the ground-based cloud radar and disdrometer observations as well as high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences microphysics and four other microphysical schemes are used to investigate the microphysics and precipitation mechanisms of a convection event on 24 July 2014. The Weather Research and Forecasting-Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences simulation reasonably reproduces the spatial distribution of 24-hr accumulated rainfall, yet the temporal evolution of rain rate has a delay of 1-3 hr. The model reflectivity shares the common features with the cloud radar observations. The simulated raindrop size distributions demonstrate more of small- and large-size raindrops produced with the increase of rain rate, suggesting that changeable shape parameter should be used in size distribution. Results show that abundant supercooled water exists through condensation of water vapor above the freezing layer. The prevailing ice crystal microphysical processes are depositional growth and autoconversion of ice crystal to snow. The dominant source term of snow/graupel is riming of supercooled water. Sedimentation of graupel can play a vital role in the formation of precipitation, but melting of snow is rather small and quite different from that in other regions. Furthermore, water vapor budgets suggest that surface moisture flux be the principal source of water vapor and self-circulation of moisture happen at the beginning of convection, while total moisture flux convergence determine condensation and precipitation during the convective process over the Tibetan Plateau.

Retrieve Optically Thick Ice Cloud Microphysical Properties by Using Airborne Dual-Wavelength Radar Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Zhien; Heymsfield, Gerald M.; Li, Lihua; Heymsfield, Andrew J.

2005-01-01

An algorithm to retrieve optically thick ice cloud microphysical property profiles is developed by using the GSFC 9.6 GHz ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP) and the 94 GHz Cloud Radar System (CRS) measurements aboard the high-altitude ER-2 aircraft. In situ size distribution and total water content data from the CRYSTAL-FACE field campaign are used for the algorithm development. To reduce uncertainty in calculated radar reflectivity factors (Ze) at these wavelengths, coincident radar measurements and size distribution data are used to guide the selection of mass-length relationships and to deal with the density and non-spherical effects of ice crystals on the Ze calculations. The algorithm is able to retrieve microphysical property profiles of optically thick ice clouds, such as, deep convective and anvil clouds, which are very challenging for single frequency radar and lidar. Examples of retrieved microphysical properties for a deep convective clouds are presented, which show that EDOP and CRS measurements provide rich information to study cloud structure and evolution. Good agreement between IWPs derived from an independent submillimeter-wave radiometer, CoSSIR, and dual-wavelength radar measurements indicates accuracy of the IWC retrieved from the two-frequency radar algorithm.

Meteorological and Aerosol effects on Marine Cloud Microphysical Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, K. J.; Russell, L. M.; Modini, R. L.; Frossard, A. A.; Ahlm, L.; Roberts, G.; Hawkins, L. N.; Schroder, J. C.; Wang, Z.; Lee, A.; Abbatt, J.; Lin, J.; Nenes, A.; Wonaschuetz, A.; Sorooshian, A.; Noone, K.; Jonsson, H.; Albrecht, B. A.; Desiree, T. S.; Macdonald, A. M.; Seinfeld, J.; Zhao, R.

2015-12-01

Both meteorology and microphysics affect cloud formation and consequently their droplet distributions and shortwave reflectance. The Eastern Pacific Emitted Aerosol Cloud Experiment (EPEACE) and the Stratocumulus Observations of Los-Angeles Emissions Derived Aerosol-Droplets (SOLEDAD) studies provide detailed measurements in 6 case studies of both cloud thermodynamic properties and initial particle number distribution and composition, as well as the resulting cloud drop distribution and composition. This study uses simulations of a detailed chemical and microphysical aerosol-cloud parcel (ACP) model with explicit kinetic drop activation to reproduce the observed cloud droplet distribution and composition. Four of the cases examined had a sub-adiabatic lapse rate, which was shown to have fewer droplets due to decreased maximum supersaturation, lower LWC and higher cloud base height, consistent with previous findings. These detailed case studies provided measured thermodynamics and microphysics that constrained the simulated droplet size distribution sufficiently to match the droplet number within 6% and the size within 19% for 4 of the 6 cases, demonstrating "closure" or consistency of the measured composition with the measured CCN spectra and the inferred and modeled supersaturation. The contribution of organic components to droplet formation shows small effects on the droplet number and size in the 4 marine cases that had background aerosol conditions with varying amounts of coastal, ship or other non-biogenic sources. In contrast, the organic fraction and hygroscopicity increased the droplet number and size in the cases with generated smoke and cargo ship plumes that were freshly emitted and not yet internally mixed with the background particles. The simulation results show organic hygroscopicity causes small effects on cloud reflectivity (<0.7%) with the exception of the cargo ship plume and smoke plume which increased absolute cloud reflectivity fraction by 0

Idealized Simulations of a Squall Line from the MC3E Field Campaign Applying Three Bin Microphysics Schemes: Dynamic and Thermodynamic Structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xue, Lulin; Fan, Jiwen; Lebo, Zachary J.

The squall line event on May 20, 2011, during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds (MC3E) field campaign has been simulated by three bin (spectral) microphysics schemes coupled into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Semi-idealized three-dimensional simulations driven by temperature and moisture profiles acquired by a radiosonde released in the pre-convection environment at 1200 UTC in Morris, Oklahoma show that each scheme produced a squall line with features broadly consistent with the observed storm characteristics. However, substantial differences in the details of the simulated dynamic and thermodynamic structure are evident. These differences are attributed to different algorithms and numericalmore » representations of microphysical processes, assumptions of the hydrometeor processes and properties, especially ice particle mass, density, and terminal velocity relationships with size, and the resulting interactions between the microphysics, cold pool, and dynamics. This study shows that different bin microphysics schemes, designed to be conceptually more realistic and thus arguably more accurate than bulk microphysics schemes, still simulate a wide spread of microphysical, thermodynamic, and dynamic characteristics of a squall line, qualitatively similar to the spread of squall line characteristics using various bulk schemes. Future work may focus on improving the representation of ice particle properties in bin schemes to reduce this uncertainty and using the similar assumptions for all schemes to isolate the impact of physics from numerics.« less

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties within a Single-Moment Microphysics Scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.; Petersen, Walter A.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dembek, Scott R.

2010-01-01

The assumptions of a single-moment microphysics scheme (NASA Goddard) were evaluated using a variety of surface, aircraft and radar data sets. Fixed distribution intercepts and snow bulk densities fail to represent the vertical variability and diversity of crystal populations for this event. Temperature-based equations have merit, but they can be adversely affected by complex temperature profiles that are inverted or isothermal. Column-based approaches can mitigate complex profiles of temperature but are restricted by the ability of the model to represent cloud depth. Spheres are insufficient for use in CloudSat reflectivity comparisons due to Mie resonance, but reasonable for Rayleigh scattering applications. Microphysics schemes will benefit from a greater range of snow crystal characteristics to accommodate naturally occurring diversity.

Coupling Spectral-bin Cloud Microphysics with the MOSAIC Aerosol Model in WRF-Chem: Methodology and Results for Marine Stratocumulus Clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Wenhua; Fan, Jiwen; Easter, Richard C.

Aerosol-cloud interaction processes can be represented more physically with bin cloud microphysics relative to bulk microphysical parameterizations. However, due to computational power limitations in the past, bin cloud microphysics was often run with very simple aerosol treatments. The purpose of this study is to represent better aerosol-cloud interaction processes in the Chemistry version of Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF-Chem) at convection-permitting scales by coupling spectral-bin cloud microphysics (SBM) with the MOSAIC sectional aerosol model. A flexible interface is built that exchanges cloud and aerosol information between them. The interface contains a new bin aerosol activation approach, which replaces themore » treatments in the original SBM. It also includes the modified aerosol resuspension and in-cloud wet removal processes with the droplet loss tendencies and precipitation fluxes from SBM. The newly coupled system is evaluated for two marine stratocumulus cases over the Southeast Pacific Ocean with either a simplified aerosol setup or full-chemistry. We compare the aerosol activation process in the newly-coupled SBM-MOSAIC against the SBM simulation without chemistry using a simplified aerosol setup, and the results show consistent activation rates. A longer time simulation reinforces that aerosol resuspension through cloud drop evaporation plays an important role in replenishing aerosols and impacts cloud and precipitation in marine stratocumulus clouds. Evaluation of the coupled SBM-MOSAIC with full-chemistry using aircraft measurements suggests that the new model works realistically for the marine stratocumulus clouds, and improves the simulation of cloud microphysical properties compared to a simulation using MOSAIC coupled with the Morrison two-moment microphysics.« less

Urinary biomarkers predict advanced acute kidney injury after cardiovascular surgery.

PubMed

Wang, Jian-Jhong; Chi, Nai-Hsin; Huang, Tao-Min; Connolly, Rory; Chen, Liang Wen; Chueh, Shih-Chieh Jeff; Kan, Wei-Chih; Lai, Chih-Cheng; Wu, Vin-Cent; Fang, Ji-Tseng; Chu, Tzong-Shinn; Wu, Kwan-Dun

2018-04-26

Acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiovascular surgery is a serious complication. Little is known about the ability of novel biomarkers in combination with clinical risk scores for prediction of advanced AKI. In this prospectively conducted multicenter study, urine samples were collected from 149 adults at 0, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h after cardiovascular surgery. We measured urinary hemojuvelin (uHJV), kidney injury molecule-1 (uKIM-1), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL), α-glutathione S-transferase (uα-GST) and π-glutathione S-transferase (uπ-GST). The primary outcome was advanced AKI, under the definition of Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) stage 2, 3 and composite outcomes were KDIGO stage 2, 3 or 90-day mortality after hospital discharge. Patients with advanced AKI had significantly higher levels of uHJV and uKIM-1 at 3, 6 and 12 h after surgery. When normalized by urinary creatinine level, uKIM-1 in combination with uHJV at 3 h post-surgery had a high predictive ability for advanced AKI and composite outcome (AUC = 0.898 and 0.905, respectively). The combination of this biomarker panel (normalized uKIM-1, uHJV at 3 h post-operation) and Liano's score was superior in predicting advanced AKI (AUC = 0.931, category-free net reclassification improvement of 1.149, and p <  0.001). When added to Liano's score, normalized uHJV and uKIM-1 levels at 3 h after cardiovascular surgery enhanced the identification of patients at higher risk of progression to advanced AKI and composite outcomes.

A microphysical parameterization of aqSOA and sulfate formation in clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McVay, Renee; Ervens, Barbara

2017-07-01

Sulfate and secondary organic aerosol (cloud aqSOA) can be chemically formed in cloud water. Model implementation of these processes represents a computational burden due to the large number of microphysical and chemical parameters. Chemical mechanisms have been condensed by reducing the number of chemical parameters. Here an alternative is presented to reduce the number of microphysical parameters (number of cloud droplet size classes). In-cloud mass formation is surface and volume dependent due to surface-limited oxidant uptake and/or size-dependent pH. Box and parcel model simulations show that using the effective cloud droplet diameter (proportional to total volume-to-surface ratio) reproduces sulfate and aqSOA formation rates within ≤30% as compared to full droplet distributions; other single diameters lead to much greater deviations. This single-class approach reduces computing time significantly and can be included in models when total liquid water content and effective diameter are available.

Aerosol Microphysical Effects on Cloud Fraction over the Nighttime Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamora, L. M.; Kahn, R. A.; Stohl, A.; Eckhardt, S.

2017-12-01

Cloud fraction is a key component affecting the surface energy balance in the Arctic. Aerosol microphysical processes can affect cloud fraction, for example through cloud lifetime effects. However, the importance of aerosol impacts on cloud fraction is not well constrained on a regional scale at high latitudes. Here we discuss a new method for identifying and comparing clean and aerosol-influenced cloud characteristics using a combination of multi-year remote sensing data (CALIPSO, CloudSat) and the FLEXPART aerosol model. We use this method to investigate a variety of aerosol microphysical impacts on nighttime Arctic Ocean clouds on regional and local scales. We observe differences in factors that can impact cloud lifetime, including cloud thickness and phase, within a subset of clean vs. polluted clouds. We will also discuss cumulative cloud fraction differences in clean and non-clean environments, as well as their likely impact on longwave cloud radiative effects at the Arctic Ocean surface during polar night.

Evaluation of predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation after tests with convection and microphysics schemes in the Eta Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, J. L.; Chou, S. C.; Yaguchi, S. M.

2012-04-01

Physics parameterizations and the model vertical and horizontal resolutions, for example, can significantly contribute to the uncertainty in the numerical weather predictions, especially at regions with complex topography. The objective of this study is to assess the influences of model precipitation production schemes and horizontal resolution on the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Eta Model . The model was run in hydrostatic mode at 3- and 5-km grid sizes, the vertical resolution was set to 50 layers, and the time steps to 6 and 10 s, respectively. The initial and boundary conditions were taken from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Over the sea the 0.25-deg sea surface temperature from NOAA was used. The model was setup to run for each resolution over Angra dos Reis, located in the Southeast region of Brazil, for the rainy period between 18 December 2009 and 01 de January 2010, the model simulation range was 48 hours. In one set of runs the cumulus parameterization was switched off, in this case the model precipitation was fully simulated by cloud microphysics scheme, and in the other set the model was run with weak cumulus convection. The results show that as the model horizontal resolution increases from 5 to 3 km, the spatial pattern of the precipitation hardly changed, although the maximum precipitation core increased in magnitude. Daily data from automatic station data was used to evaluate the runs and shows that the diurnal cycle of temperature and precipitation were better simulated for 3 km when compared against observations. The model configuration results without cumulus convection shows a small contraction in the precipitating area and an increase in the simulated maximum values. The diurnal cycle of precipitation was better simulated with some activity of the cumulus convection scheme. The skill scores for the period and for different forecast ranges are higher at weak and moderate precipitation rates.

Assessment of biomass burning smoke influence on environmental conditions for multiyear tornado outbreaks by combining aerosol-aware microphysics and fire emission constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saide, Pablo E.; Thompson, Gregory; Eidhammer, Trude; da Silva, Arlindo M.; Pierce, R. Bradley; Carmichael, Gregory R.

2016-09-01

We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system to study the impacts of biomass burning smoke from Central America on several tornado outbreaks occurring in the U.S. during spring. The model is configured with an aerosol-aware microphysics parameterization capable of resolving aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in a cost-efficient way for numerical weather prediction (NWP) applications. Primary aerosol emissions are included, and smoke emissions are constrained using an inverse modeling technique and satellite-based aerosol optical depth observations. Simulations turning on and off fire emissions reveal smoke presence in all tornado outbreaks being studied and show an increase in aerosol number concentrations due to smoke. However, the likelihood of occurrence and intensification of tornadoes is higher due to smoke only in cases where cloud droplet number concentration in low-level clouds increases considerably in a way that modifies the environmental conditions where the tornadoes are formed (shallower cloud bases and higher low-level wind shear). Smoke absorption and vertical extent also play a role, with smoke absorption at cloud-level tending to burn-off clouds and smoke absorption above clouds resulting in an increased capping inversion. Comparing these and WRF-Chem simulations configured with a more complex representation of aerosol size and composition and different optical properties, microphysics, and activation schemes, we find similarities in terms of the simulated aerosol optical depths and aerosol impacts on near-storm environments. This provides reliability on the aerosol-aware microphysics scheme as a less computationally expensive alternative to WRF-Chem for its use in applications such as NWP and cloud-resolving simulations.

MOD06 Optical and Microphysical Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, Michael D.; Platnick, Steven; Arnold, G. T.; Dinsick, J.; Gatebe, C. K.; Gray, M. A.; Hubanks, P. A.; Moody, E. G.; Wind, B.; Wind, G.

2003-01-01

Major efforts over the past six months included: (1) submission of MOD06 Optical and Microphysical Retrieval recompetition proposal, (2) delivery of a MODIS Atmosphere Level-3 update, (3) delivery of the MODIS Atmosphere s new combined Level-2 product, (4) development of an above-cloud precipitable water research algorithm and a multi-layer cloud detection algorithm, (5) continued development of a Fortran 90 version of the retrieval code for use with MAS as well as operational MODIS processing, (6) preliminary analysis of CRYSTAL-FACE field experiment in July 2002, (7) continued analysis of data obtained during the SAFARI 2000 dry season campaign in southern Africa, and the Arctic FIRE-ACE experiment.

Exploring the Effects of Cloud Vertical Structure on Cloud Microphysical Retrievals based on Polarized Reflectances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D. J.; Zhang, Z.; Platnick, S. E.; Ackerman, A. S.; Cornet, C.; Baum, B. A.

2013-12-01

A polarized cloud reflectance simulator was developed by coupling an LES cloud model with a polarized radiative transfer model to assess the capabilities of polarimetric cloud retrievals. With future remote sensing campaigns like NASA's Aerosols/Clouds/Ecosystems (ACE) planning to feature advanced polarimetric instruments it is important for the cloud remote sensing community to understand the retrievable information available and the related systematic/methodical limitations. The cloud retrieval simulator we have developed allows us to probe these important questions in a realistically relevant test bed. Our simulator utilizes a polarized adding-doubling radiative transfer model and an LES cloud field from a DHARMA simulation (Ackerman et al. 2004) with cloud properties based on the stratocumulus clouds observed during the DYCOMS-II field campaign. In this study we will focus on how the vertical structure of cloud microphysics can influence polarized cloud effective radius retrievals. Numerous previous studies have explored how retrievals based on total reflectance are affected by cloud vertical structure (Platnick 2000, Chang and Li 2002) but no such studies about the effects of vertical structure on polarized retrievals exist. Unlike the total cloud reflectance, which is predominantly multiply scattered light, the polarized reflectance is primarily the result of singly scattered photons. Thus the polarized reflectance is sensitive to only the uppermost region of the cloud (tau~<1) where photons can scatter once and still escape before being scattered again. This means that retrievals based on polarized reflectance have the potential to reveal behaviors specific to the cloud top. For example cloud top entrainment of dry air, a major influencer on the microphysical development of cloud droplets, can be potentially studied with polarimetric retrievals.

A Hierarchical Modeling Study of the Interactions Among Turbulence, Cloud Microphysics, and Radiative Transfer in the Evolution of Cirrus Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, Judith; Khvorostyanov, V. I.

2005-01-01

This project used a hierarchy of cloud resolving models to address the following science issues of relevance to CRYSTAL-FACE: What ice crystal nucleation mechanisms are active in the different types of cirrus clouds in the Florida area and how do these different nucleation processes influence the evolution of the cloud system and the upper tropospheric humidity? How does the feedback between supersaturation and nucleation impact the evolution of the cloud? What is the relative importance of the large-scale vertical motion and the turbulent motions in the evolution of the crystal size spectra? How does the size spectra impact the life-cycle of the cloud, stratospheric dehydration, and cloud radiative forcing? What is the nature of the turbulence and waves in the upper troposphere generated by precipitating deep convective cloud systems? How do cirrus microphysical and optical properties vary with the small-scale dynamics? How do turbulence and waves in the upper troposphere influence the cross-tropopause mixing and stratospheric and upper tropospheric humidity? The models used in this study were: 2-D hydrostatic model with explicit microphysics that can account for 30 size bins for both the droplet and crystal size spectra. Notably, a new ice crystal nucleation scheme has been incorporated into the model. Parcel model with explicit microphysics, for developing and evaluating microphysical parameterizations. Single column model for testing bulk microphysics parameterizations

Analysis of TRMM Microphysical Measurements: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

SPEC Incorporated participated in three of the four TRMM field campaigns (TEFLUN-A, TEFLUN-B and KWAJEX), installing and operating a cloud particle imager (CPI) and a high volume precipitation spectrometer (HVPS) on the SPEC Learjet in TEFLUN-A, the University of North Dakota Citation in TEFLUN-B and KWAJEX, and a CPI on the NASA DC-8 in KWAJEX. This report presents and discusses new software tools and algorithms that were developed to analyze microphysical data collected during these field campaigns, as well as scientific interpretations of the data themselves. Software algorithms were developed to improve the analysis of microphysical measurements collected by the TRMM aircraft during the field campaigns. Particular attention was paid to developing and/or improving algorithms used to compute particle size distributions and ice water content. Software was also developed in support of production of the TRMM Common Microphysical Product (CMP) data files. CMP data files for TEFLUN-A field campaign were produced and submitted to the DAAC. Typical microphysical properties of convective and stratiform regions from TEFLUN-A and KWAJEX clouds were produced. In general, it was found that in the upper cloud region near -20 to -25 C, stratiform clouds contain very high (greater than 1 per cubic centimeter) concentrations of small ice particles, which are suspected to be a residual from homogeneous freezing and sedimentation of small drops in a convective updraft. In the upper cloud region near -20 to -25 C, convective clouds contain aggregates, which are not found lower in the cloud. Stratiform clouds contain aggregates at all levels, with the majority in the lowest levels. Convective cloud regions contain much higher LWC and drop concentrations than stratiform regions at all levels, and higher LWC in the middle and upper regions. Stratiform clouds contain higher IWC than convective clouds only at the lowest level. Irregular shaped ice particles are found in very high

A Microphysics-Based Black Carbon Aging Scheme in a Global Chemical Transport Model: Constraints from HIPPO Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, C.; Li, Q.; Liou, K. N.; Qi, L.; Tao, S.; Schwarz, J. P.

2015-12-01

Black carbon (BC) aging significantly affects its distributions and radiative properties, which is an important uncertainty source in estimating BC climatic effects. Global models often use a fixed aging timescale for the hydrophobic-to-hydrophilic BC conversion or a simple parameterization. We have developed and implemented a microphysics-based BC aging scheme that accounts for condensation and coagulation processes into a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Model results are systematically evaluated by comparing with the HIPPO observations across the Pacific (67°S-85°N) during 2009-2011. We find that the microphysics-based scheme substantially increases the BC aging rate over source regions as compared with the fixed aging timescale (1.2 days), due to the condensation of sulfate and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and coagulation with pre-existing hydrophilic aerosols. However, the microphysics-based scheme slows down BC aging over Polar regions where condensation and coagulation are rather weak. We find that BC aging is primarily dominated by condensation process that accounts for ~75% of global BC aging, while the coagulation process is important over source regions where a large amount of pre-existing aerosols are available. Model results show that the fixed aging scheme tends to overestimate BC concentrations over the Pacific throughout the troposphere by a factor of 2-5 at different latitudes, while the microphysics-based scheme reduces the discrepancies by up to a factor of 2, particularly in the middle troposphere. The microphysics-based scheme developed in this work decreases BC column total concentrations at all latitudes and seasons, especially over tropical regions, leading to large improvement in model simulations. We are presently analyzing the impact of this scheme on global BC budget and lifetime, quantifying its uncertainty associated with key parameters, and investigating the effects of heterogeneous chemical oxidation on BC aging.

Microphysical Analysis of a Warm Front Using and Linking Radar and In-Situ Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keppas, S.

2017-12-01

The northward movement of the Azores anticyclone over the ENE coast of Canada on 20th January 2009 caused the formation of a well-organized low pressure system in North Atlantic Ocean. That system was followed by a trough which approached the UK from the WNW on 21st January 2009. The corresponding warm front affected the UK with multiple rainbands. We present an analysis of the microphysical properties of the afore-mentioned situation using radar and in-situ data. The ground-based radars are located in Chilbolton (South England) and operate at 3 and 35 GHz frequency. Chilbolton's radar high resolution (0.4 Km in vertical and 0.3 Km in horizontal dimension) and dual-polarization technology offers a view of the different features of the hydrometeors over large scales. The in-situ measurements have been taken during a flight over the SW England in the framework of the APPRAISE Clouds project, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The data from microphysical probes (CDP, 2D-S, CIP15, CIP100) provide a complete picture of hydrometeor properties (cloud droplets, ice particles and snow) are used for the microphysical analysis of this well- defined warm front. Using these datasets, features we try to identify and analyse regions, within mixed-phase clouds, of embedded convection, long ice fall streaks and the warm conveyor belt. We also try to explain the way that the warm conveyor belt affects the ice multiplication processes and the formation of some particular ice-particles, which we called ice-lollies due to their similarities in shape. The main goals of this work are: a. the identification and interpretation of areas with specific ice crystal habits by comparing radar and in-situ observations and b. the determination of the polarimetric and microphysical characteristics of a warm front.

Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Which Staging Systems Best Predict Prognosis?

PubMed Central

Huitzil-Melendez, Fidel-David; Capanu, Marinela; O'Reilly, Eileen M.; Duffy, Austin; Gansukh, Bolorsukh; Saltz, Leonard L.; Abou-Alfa, Ghassan K.

2010-01-01

Purpose The purpose of cancer staging systems is to accurately predict patient prognosis. The outcome of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) depends on both the cancer stage and the extent of liver dysfunction. Many staging systems that include both aspects have been developed. It remains unknown, however, which of these systems is optimal for predicting patient survival. Patients and Methods Patients with advanced HCC treated over a 5-year period at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center were identified from an electronic medical record database. Patients with sufficient data for utilization in all staging systems were included. TNM sixth edition, Okuda, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), Chinese University Prognostic Index (CUPI), Japan Integrated Staging (JIS), and Groupe d'Etude et de Traitement du Carcinome Hepatocellulaire (GETCH) systems were ranked on the basis of their accuracy at predicting survival by using concordance index (c-index). Other independent prognostic variables were also identified. Results Overall, 187 eligible patients were identified and were staged by using the seven staging systems. CLIP, CUPI, and GETCH were the three top-ranking staging systems. BCLC and TNM sixth edition lacked any meaningful prognostic discrimination. Performance status, AST, abdominal pain, and esophageal varices improved the discriminatory ability of CLIP. Conclusion In our selected patient population, CLIP, CUPI, and GETCH were the most informative staging systems in predicting survival in patients with advanced HCC. Prospective validation is required to determine if they can be accurately used to stratify patients in clinical trials and to direct the appropriate need for systemic therapy versus best supportive care. BCLC and TNM sixth edition were not helpful in predicting survival outcome, and their use is not supported by our data. PMID:20458042

Pretreatment tables predicting pathologic stage of locally advanced prostate cancer.

PubMed

Joniau, Steven; Spahn, Martin; Briganti, Alberto; Gandaglia, Giorgio; Tombal, Bertrand; Tosco, Lorenzo; Marchioro, Giansilvio; Hsu, Chao-Yu; Walz, Jochen; Kneitz, Burkhard; Bader, Pia; Frohneberg, Detlef; Tizzani, Alessandro; Graefen, Markus; van Cangh, Paul; Karnes, R Jeffrey; Montorsi, Francesco; van Poppel, Hein; Gontero, Paolo

2015-02-01

Pretreatment tables for the prediction of pathologic stage have been published and validated for localized prostate cancer (PCa). No such tables are available for locally advanced (cT3a) PCa. To construct tables predicting pathologic outcome after radical prostatectomy (RP) for patients with cT3a PCa with the aim to help guide treatment decisions in clinical practice. This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study including 759 consecutive patients with cT3a PCa treated with RP between 1987 and 2010. Retropubic RP and pelvic lymphadenectomy. Patients were divided into pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and biopsy Gleason score (GS) subgroups. These parameters were used to construct tables predicting pathologic outcome and the presence of positive lymph nodes (LNs) after RP for cT3a PCa using ordinal logistic regression. In the model predicting pathologic outcome, the main effects of biopsy GS and pretreatment PSA were significant. A higher GS and/or higher PSA level was associated with a more unfavorable pathologic outcome. The validation procedure, using a repeated split-sample method, showed good predictive ability. Regression analysis also showed an increasing probability of positive LNs with increasing PSA levels and/or higher GS. Limitations of the study are the retrospective design and the long study period. These novel tables predict pathologic stage after RP for patients with cT3a PCa based on pretreatment PSA level and biopsy GS. They can be used to guide decision making in men with locally advanced PCa. Our study might provide physicians with a useful tool to predict pathologic stage in locally advanced prostate cancer that might help select patients who may need multimodal treatment. Copyright © 2014 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A tandem approach for collocated measurements of microphysical and radiative cirrus properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingebiel, Marcus; Ehrlich, André; Finger, Fanny; Röschenthaler, Timo; Jakirlić, Suad; Voigt, Matthias; Müller, Stefan; Maser, Rolf; Wendisch, Manfred; Hoor, Peter; Spichtinger, Peter; Borrmann, Stephan

2017-09-01

Microphysical and radiation measurements were collected with the novel AIRcraft TOwed Sensor Shuttle (AIRTOSS) - Learjet tandem platform. The platform is a combination of an instrumented Learjet 35A research aircraft and an aerodynamic bird, which is detached from and retracted back to the aircraft during flight via a steel wire with a length of 4000 m. Both platforms are equipped with radiative, cloud microphysical, trace gas, and meteorological instruments. The purpose of the development of this tandem set-up is to study the inhomogeneity of cirrus as well as other stratiform clouds. Sophisticated numerical flow simulations were conducted in order to optimally integrate an axially asymmetric Cloud Combination Probe (CCP) inside AIRTOSS. The tandem platform was applied during measurements at altitudes up to 36 000 ft (10 970 m) in the framework of the AIRTOSS - Inhomogeneous Cirrus Experiment (AIRTOSS-ICE). Ten flights were performed above the North Sea and Baltic Sea to probe frontal and in situ formed cirrus, as well as anvil outflow cirrus. For one flight, cirrus microphysical and radiative properties displayed significant inhomogeneities resolved by both measurement platforms. The CCP data show that the maximum of the observed particle number size distributions shifts with decreasing altitude from 30 to 300 µm, which is typical for frontal, midlatitude cirrus. Theoretical considerations imply that cloud particle aggregation inside the studied cirrus is very unlikely. Consequently, diffusional growth was identified to be the dominant microphysical growth process. Measurements of solar downward and upward irradiances at 670 nm wavelength were conducted above, below, and in the cirrus on both the Learjet and AIRTOSS. The observed variability of the downward irradiance below the cirrus reflects the horizontal heterogeneity of the observed thin cirrus. Vertically resolved solar heating rates were derived by either using single-platform measurements at different

MATRIX-VBS Condensing Organic Aerosols in an Aerosol Microphysics Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Chloe Y.; Tsigaridis, Konstas; Bauer, Susanne E.

2015-01-01

The condensation of organic aerosols is represented in a newly developed box-model scheme, where its effect on the growth and composition of particles are examined. We implemented the volatility-basis set (VBS) framework into the aerosol mixing state resolving microphysical scheme Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state (MATRIX). This new scheme is unique and advances the representation of organic aerosols in models in that, contrary to the traditional treatment of organic aerosols as non-volatile in most climate models and in the original version of MATRIX, this new scheme treats them as semi-volatile. Such treatment is important because low-volatility organics contribute significantly to the growth of particles. The new scheme includes several classes of semi-volatile organic compounds from the VBS framework that can partition among aerosol populations in MATRIX, thus representing the growth of particles via condensation of low volatility organic vapors. Results from test cases representing Mexico City and a Finish forrest condistions show good representation of the time evolutions of concentration for VBS species in the gas phase and in the condensed particulate phase. Emitted semi-volatile primary organic aerosols evaporate almost completely in the high volatile range, and they condense more efficiently in the low volatility range.

Retrievals of Aerosol and Cloud Particle Microphysics Using Polarization and Depolarization Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mishchenko, Michael; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The recent availability of theoretical techniques for computing single and multiple scattering of light by realistic polydispersions of spherical and nonspherical particles and the strong dependence of the Stokes scattering matrix on particle size, shape, and refractive index make polarization and depolarization measurements a powerful particle characterization tool. In this presentation I will describe recent applications of photopolarimetric and lidar depolarization measurements to remote sensing characterization of tropospheric aerosols, polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), and contrails. The talk will include (1) a short theoretical overview of the effects of particle microphysics on particle single-scattering characteristics; (2) the use of multi-angle multi-spectral photopolarimetry to retrieve the optical thickness, size distribution, refractive index, and number concentration of tropospheric aerosols over the ocean surface; and (3) the application of the T-matrix method to constraining the PSC and contrail particle microphysics using multi-spectral measurements of lidar backscatter and depolarization.

Microphysics-based black carbon aging in a global CTM: constraints from HIPPO observations and implications for global black carbon budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Cenlin; Li, Qinbin; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Qi, Ling; Tao, Shu; Schwarz, Joshua P.

2016-03-01

We develop and examine a microphysics-based black carbon (BC) aerosol aging scheme that accounts for condensation, coagulation, and heterogeneous chemical oxidation processes in a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) by interpreting the BC measurements from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO, 2009-2011) using the model. We convert aerosol mass in the model to number concentration by assuming lognormal aerosol size distributions and compute the microphysical BC aging rate (excluding chemical oxidation aging) explicitly from the condensation of soluble materials onto hydrophobic BC and the coagulation between hydrophobic BC and preexisting soluble particles. The chemical oxidation aging is tested in the sensitivity simulation. The microphysical aging rate is ˜ 4 times higher in the lower troposphere over source regions than that from a fixed aging scheme with an e-folding time of 1.2 days. The higher aging rate reflects the large emissions of sulfate-nitrate and secondary organic aerosol precursors hence faster BC aging through condensation and coagulation. In contrast, the microphysical aging is more than 5-fold slower than the fixed aging in remote regions, where condensation and coagulation are weak. Globally, BC microphysical aging is dominated by condensation, while coagulation contribution is largest over eastern China, India, and central Africa. The fixed aging scheme results in an overestimate of HIPPO BC throughout the troposphere by a factor of 6 on average. The microphysical scheme reduces this discrepancy by a factor of ˜ 3, particularly in the middle and upper troposphere. It also leads to a 3-fold reduction in model bias in the latitudinal BC column burden averaged along the HIPPO flight tracks, with largest improvements in the tropics. The resulting global annual mean BC lifetime is 4.2 days and BC burden is 0.25 mg m-2, with 7.3 % of the burden at high altitudes (above 5 km). Wet scavenging accounts for 80.3 % of global BC

A Combined Retrieval of Aerosol Microphysical Properties using active HSRL and Passive Polarimeter Multi-sensor Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Stamnes, S.; Ferrare, R. A.; Hostetler, C. A.; Burton, A. S.; Chemyakin, E.; Sawamura, P.; Mueller, D.

2017-12-01

Vertically resolved measurements of aerosol optical, microphysical, and macrophysical parameters are required to better understand the influence of aerosols on climate and air quality. We will describe an Optimal Estimation (OE) retrieval framework which can perform aerosol property retrievals in three modes: 1) lidar-only, 2) polarimeter-only, and 3) combined lidar-polarimeter muti-sensor system. The lidar data can be profile measurements by any high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) and/or Raman lidar with multiple wavelengths of aerosol backscattering (β) and extinction (α). The polarimeter data can be any multi-angle and multi-wavelength measurements with 2 or 3 polarization components. We will show aerosol microphysical retrieval results from the HSRL-2 data measured from various NASA airborne field campaigns including the recent ORACLES mission. We will also show the OE retrieval results from the polarimeter-only mode. Finally, we will demonstrate how the information content of the aerosol microphysical retrieval is increased by combining the active HSRL and passive polarimeter data in our simultaneous OE retrieval system.

Microphysical effects determine macrophysical response for aerosol impacts on deep convective clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Jiwen; Leung, L. Ruby; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Chen, Qian; Li, Zhanqing; Zhang, Jinqiang; Yan, Hongru

2013-11-01

Deep convective clouds (DCCs) play a crucial role in the general circulation, energy, and hydrological cycle of our climate system. Aerosol particles can influence DCCs by altering cloud properties, precipitation regimes, and radiation balance. Previous studies reported both invigoration and suppression of DCCs by aerosols, but few were concerned with the whole life cycle of DCC. By conducting multiple monthlong cloud-resolving simulations with spectral-bin cloud microphysics that capture the observed macrophysical and microphysical properties of summer convective clouds and precipitation in the tropics and midlatitudes, this study provides a comprehensive view of how aerosols affect cloud cover, cloud top height, and radiative forcing. We found that although the widely accepted theory of DCC invigoration due to aerosol's thermodynamic effect (additional latent heat release from freezing of greater amount of cloud water) may work during the growing stage, it is microphysical effect influenced by aerosols that drives the dramatic increase in cloud cover, cloud top height, and cloud thickness at the mature and dissipation stages by inducing larger amounts of smaller but longer-lasting ice particles in the stratiform/anvils of DCCs, even when thermodynamic invigoration of convection is absent. The thermodynamic invigoration effect contributes up to ∼27% of total increase in cloud cover. The overall aerosol indirect effect is an atmospheric radiative warming (3-5 Wṡm-2) and a surface cooling (-5 to -8 Wṡm-2). The modeling findings are confirmed by the analyses of ample measurements made at three sites of distinctly different environments.

Microphysical effects determine macrophysical response for aerosol impacts on deep convective clouds

PubMed Central

Fan, Jiwen; Leung, L. Ruby; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Chen, Qian; Li, Zhanqing; Zhang, Jinqiang; Yan, Hongru

2013-01-01

Deep convective clouds (DCCs) play a crucial role in the general circulation, energy, and hydrological cycle of our climate system. Aerosol particles can influence DCCs by altering cloud properties, precipitation regimes, and radiation balance. Previous studies reported both invigoration and suppression of DCCs by aerosols, but few were concerned with the whole life cycle of DCC. By conducting multiple monthlong cloud-resolving simulations with spectral-bin cloud microphysics that capture the observed macrophysical and microphysical properties of summer convective clouds and precipitation in the tropics and midlatitudes, this study provides a comprehensive view of how aerosols affect cloud cover, cloud top height, and radiative forcing. We found that although the widely accepted theory of DCC invigoration due to aerosol’s thermodynamic effect (additional latent heat release from freezing of greater amount of cloud water) may work during the growing stage, it is microphysical effect influenced by aerosols that drives the dramatic increase in cloud cover, cloud top height, and cloud thickness at the mature and dissipation stages by inducing larger amounts of smaller but longer-lasting ice particles in the stratiform/anvils of DCCs, even when thermodynamic invigoration of convection is absent. The thermodynamic invigoration effect contributes up to ∼27% of total increase in cloud cover. The overall aerosol indirect effect is an atmospheric radiative warming (3–5 W⋅m−2) and a surface cooling (−5 to −8 W⋅m−2). The modeling findings are confirmed by the analyses of ample measurements made at three sites of distinctly different environments. PMID:24218569

Microphysical effects determine macrophysical response for aerosol impacts on deep convective clouds.

PubMed

Fan, Jiwen; Leung, L Ruby; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Chen, Qian; Li, Zhanqing; Zhang, Jinqiang; Yan, Hongru

2013-11-26

Deep convective clouds (DCCs) play a crucial role in the general circulation, energy, and hydrological cycle of our climate system. Aerosol particles can influence DCCs by altering cloud properties, precipitation regimes, and radiation balance. Previous studies reported both invigoration and suppression of DCCs by aerosols, but few were concerned with the whole life cycle of DCC. By conducting multiple monthlong cloud-resolving simulations with spectral-bin cloud microphysics that capture the observed macrophysical and microphysical properties of summer convective clouds and precipitation in the tropics and midlatitudes, this study provides a comprehensive view of how aerosols affect cloud cover, cloud top height, and radiative forcing. We found that although the widely accepted theory of DCC invigoration due to aerosol's thermodynamic effect (additional latent heat release from freezing of greater amount of cloud water) may work during the growing stage, it is microphysical effect influenced by aerosols that drives the dramatic increase in cloud cover, cloud top height, and cloud thickness at the mature and dissipation stages by inducing larger amounts of smaller but longer-lasting ice particles in the stratiform/anvils of DCCs, even when thermodynamic invigoration of convection is absent. The thermodynamic invigoration effect contributes up to ~27% of total increase in cloud cover. The overall aerosol indirect effect is an atmospheric radiative warming (3-5 W m(-2)) and a surface cooling (-5 to -8 W m(-2)). The modeling findings are confirmed by the analyses of ample measurements made at three sites of distinctly different environments.

Microphysical Analysis using Airborne 2-D Cloud and Precipitation Imaging Probe Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guy, N.; Jorgensen, D.; Witte, M.; Chuang, P. Y.; Black, R. A.

2013-12-01

The NOAA P-3 instrumented aircraft provided in-situ cloud and precipitation microphysical observations during the DYNAMO (Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation) field experiment. The Particle Measuring System 2D cloud (2D-C) and precipitation (2D-P) probes collected data for particles between 12.5 μm - 1.55 mm (25 μm resolution) and 100 μm - 6.2 mm (100 μm resolution), respectively. Spectra from each instrument were combined to provide a broad distribution of precipitation particle sizes. The 'method of moments' technique was used to analyze drop size distribution (DSD) spectra, which were modeled by fitting a three-parameter (slope, shape, and intercept) gamma distribution to the spectra. The characteristic shape of the mean spectrum compares to previous maritime measurements. DSD variability will be presented with respect to the temporal evolution of cloud populations during a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event, as well as in-situ aircraft vertical wind velocity measurements. Using the third and sixth moments, rainfall rate (R) and equivalent radar reflectivity factor (Z), respectively, were computed for each DSD. Linear regression was applied to establish a Z-R relationship for the data for the estimation of precipitation. The study indicated unique characteristics of microphysical processes for this region. These results are important to continue to define the cloud population characteristics in the climatological MJO region. Improved representation of the cloud characteristics on the microphysical scale will serve as a check to model parameterizations, helping to improve numerical simulations.

Assessment of biomass burning smoke influence on environmental conditions for multi-year tornado outbreaks by combining aerosol-aware microphysics and fire emission constraints.

PubMed

Saide, Pablo E; Thompson, Gregory; Eidhammer, Trude; da Silva, Arlindo M; Pierce, R Bradley; Carmichael, Gregory R

2016-09-16

We use the WRF system to study the impacts of biomass burning smoke from Central America on several tornado outbreaks occurring in the US during spring. The model is configured with an aerosol-aware microphysics parameterization capable of resolving aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in a cost-efficient way for numerical weather prediction (NWP) applications. Primary aerosol emissions are included and smoke emissions are constrained using an inverse modeling technique and satellite-based AOD observations. Simulations turning on and off fire emissions reveal smoke presence in all tornado outbreaks being studied and show an increase in aerosol number concentrations due to smoke. However, the likelihood of occurrence and intensification of tornadoes is higher due to smoke only in cases where cloud droplet number concentration in low level clouds increases considerably in a way that modifies the environmental conditions where the tornadoes are formed (shallower cloud bases and higher low-level wind shear). Smoke absorption and vertical extent also play a role, with smoke absorption at cloud-level tending to burn-off clouds and smoke absorption above clouds resulting in an increased capping inversion. Comparing these and WRF-Chem simulations configured with a more complex representation of aerosol size and composition and different optical properties, microphysics and activation schemes, we find similarities in terms of the simulated aerosol optical depths and aerosol impacts on near-storm environments. This provides reliability on the aerosol-aware microphysics scheme as a less computationally expensive alternative to WRF-Chem for its use in applications such as NWP and cloud-resolving simulations.

Assessment of Biomass Burning Smoke Influence on Environmental Conditions for Multi-Year Tornado Outbreaks by Combining Aerosol-Aware Microphysics and Fire Emission Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saide, Pablo E.; Thompson, Gregory; Eidhammer, Trude; Da Silva, Arlindo M.; Pierce, R. Bradley; Carmichael, Gregory R.

2016-01-01

We use the WRF system to study the impacts of biomass burning smoke from Central America on several tornado outbreaks occurring in the US during spring. The model is configured with an aerosol-aware microphysics parameterization capable of resolving aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in a cost-efficient way for numerical weather prediction (NWP) applications. Primary aerosol emissions are included and smoke emissions are constrained using an inverse modeling technique and satellite-based AOD observations. Simulations turning on and off fire emissions reveal smoke presence in all tornado outbreaks being studied and show an increase in aerosol number concentrations due to smoke. However, the likelihood of occurrence and intensification of tornadoes is higher due to smoke only in cases where cloud droplet number concentration in low level clouds increases considerably in a way that modifies the environmental conditions where the tornadoes are formed (shallower cloud bases and higher low-level wind shear). Smoke absorption and vertical extent also play a role, with smoke absorption at cloud-level tending to burn-off clouds and smoke absorption above clouds resulting in an increased capping inversion. Comparing these and WRF-Chem simulations configured with a more complex representation of aerosol size and composition and different optical properties, microphysics and activation schemes, we find similarities in terms of the simulated aerosol optical depths and aerosol impacts on near-storm environments. This provides reliability on the aerosol-aware microphysics scheme as a less computationally expensive alternative to WRFChem for its use in applications such as NWP and cloud-resolving simulations.

Assessment of biomass burning smoke influence on environmental conditions for multi-year tornado outbreaks by combining aerosol-aware microphysics and fire emission constraints

PubMed Central

Saide, Pablo E.; Thompson, Gregory; Eidhammer, Trude; da Silva, Arlindo M.; Pierce, R. Bradley; Carmichael, Gregory R.

2018-01-01

We use the WRF system to study the impacts of biomass burning smoke from Central America on several tornado outbreaks occurring in the US during spring. The model is configured with an aerosol-aware microphysics parameterization capable of resolving aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in a cost-efficient way for numerical weather prediction (NWP) applications. Primary aerosol emissions are included and smoke emissions are constrained using an inverse modeling technique and satellite-based AOD observations. Simulations turning on and off fire emissions reveal smoke presence in all tornado outbreaks being studied and show an increase in aerosol number concentrations due to smoke. However, the likelihood of occurrence and intensification of tornadoes is higher due to smoke only in cases where cloud droplet number concentration in low level clouds increases considerably in a way that modifies the environmental conditions where the tornadoes are formed (shallower cloud bases and higher low-level wind shear). Smoke absorption and vertical extent also play a role, with smoke absorption at cloud-level tending to burn-off clouds and smoke absorption above clouds resulting in an increased capping inversion. Comparing these and WRF-Chem simulations configured with a more complex representation of aerosol size and composition and different optical properties, microphysics and activation schemes, we find similarities in terms of the simulated aerosol optical depths and aerosol impacts on near-storm environments. This provides reliability on the aerosol-aware microphysics scheme as a less computationally expensive alternative to WRF-Chem for its use in applications such as NWP and cloud-resolving simulations. PMID:29619287

Diurnal Variation of Tropical Ice Cloud Microphysics inferred from Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GPM-GMI)'s Polarimetric Measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, J.; Zeng, X.; Wu, D. L.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Diurnal variation of tropical ice cloud has been well observed and examined in terms of the area of coverage, occurring frequency, and total mass, but rarely on ice microphysical parameters (habit, size, orientation, etc.) because of lack of direct measurements of ice microphysics on a high temporal and spatial resolutions. This accounts for a great portion of the uncertainty in evaluating ice cloud's role on global radiation and hydrological budgets. The design of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission's procession orbit gives us an unprecedented opportunity to study the diurnal variation of ice microphysics on the global scale for the first time. Dominated by cloud ice scattering, high-frequency microwave polarimetric difference (PD, namely the brightness temperature difference between vertically- and horizontally-polarized paired channel measurements) from the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) has been proven by our previous study to be very valuable to infer cloud ice microphysical properties. Using one year of PD measurements at 166 GHz, we found that cloud PD exhibits a strong diurnal cycle in the tropics (25S-25N). The peak PD amplitude varies as much as 35% over land, compared to only 6% over ocean. The diurnal cycle of the peak PD value is strongly anti-correlated with local ice cloud occurring frequency and the total ice mass with a leading period of 3 hours for the maximum correlation. The observed PD diurnal cycle can be explained by the change of ice crystal axial ratio. Using a radiative transfer model, we can simulate the observed 166 GHz PD-brightness temperature curve as well as its diurnal variation using different axial ratio values, which can be caused by the diurnal variation of ice microphysical properties including particle size, percentage of horizontally-aligned non-spherical particles, and ice habit. The leading of the change of PD ahead of ice cloud mass and occurring frequency implies the important role microphysics play in the

Specific findings on ice crystal microphysical properties from in-situ observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coutris, Pierre; Leroy, Delphine; Fontaine, Emmanuel; Schwarzenboeck, Alfons; Strapp, J. Walter

2017-04-01

This study focuses on microphysical properties of ice particles populating high ice water content areas in Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). These clouds have been extensively sampled during the High Altitude Ice Crystal - High Ice Water Content international projects (HAIC-HIWC, Dezitter et al. 2013, Strapp et al. 2015) with the objective of characterizing ice particle properties such as size distribution, radar reflectivity and ice water content. The in-situ data collected during these campaigns at different temperature levels and in different type of MCS (oceanic, continental) make the HAIC-HIWC data set a unique opportunity to study ice particle microphysical properties. Recently, a new approach to retrieve ice particle mass from in-situ measurements has been developed: a forward model that relates ice particles' mass to Particle Size Distribution (PSD) and Ice Water Content (IWC) is formulated as a linear system of equations and the retrieval process consists in solving the inverse problem with numerical optimization tools (Coutris et al. 2016). In this study, this new method is applied to HAIC-HIWC data set and main outcomes are discussed. First, the method is compared to a classical power-law based method using data from one single flight performed in Darwin area on February, 7th 2014. The observed differences in retrieved quantities such as ice particle mass, ice water content or median mass diameter, highlight the potential benefit of abandoning the power law simplistic assumption. The method is then applied to data measured at different cloud temperatures ranging from -40°C to -10°C during several flights of both Darwin 2014 and Cayenne 2015 campaigns. Specific findings about ice microphysical properties such as variations of effective density with particle size and the influence of cloud temperature on particle effective density are presented.

Predicting Post-Harvest Performance of Advance Red Oak Reproduction in the Southern Appalachians

Treesearch

David L. Loftis

1990-01-01

Models are presented for predicting: (1) height growth of red oak advance reproduction after clearcutting, and (2) the probability of stems becoming dominants or codominants in new stands as a function of preharvest size of advance reproduction andsitequafity. The second model permits silviculturists to predict, prior to harvest, the contribution to a new stand of an...

Observed and Simulated Radiative and Microphysical Properties of Tropical Convective Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DelGenio, Anthony D.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Increases in the ice content, albedo and cloud cover of tropical convective storms in a warmer climate produce a large negative contribution to cloud feedback in the GISS GCM. Unfortunately, the physics of convective upward water transport, detrainment, and ice sedimentation, and the relationship of microphysical to radiative properties, are all quite uncertain. We apply a clustering algorithm to TRMM satellite microwave rainfall retrievals to identify contiguous deep precipitating storms throughout the tropics. Each storm is characterized according to its size, albedo, OLR, rain rate, microphysical structure, and presence/absence of lightning. A similar analysis is applied to ISCCP data during the TOGA/COARE experiment to identify optically thick deep cloud systems and relate them to large-scale environmental conditions just before storm onset. We examine the statistics of these storms to understand the relative climatic roles of small and large storms and the factors that regulate convective storm size and albedo. The results are compared to GISS GCM simulated statistics of tropical convective storms to identify areas of agreement and disagreement.

Numerical Simulations of Precipitation Processes, Microphysics, and Microwave Radiative Properties of flood Producing Storms in Mediterranean & Adriatic Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A comprehensive understanding of the meteorological and microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ data analysis, radar data analysis, and satellite data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales. An important aspect of understanding microphysical controls of severe storms, is first understanding the meteorological controls under which a storm has evolved, and then using that information to help characterize the dominant microphysical processes. For hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the October 5-6, 1998 Friuli flood event in northern Italy, a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution. This involves intense convective development, Sratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that effect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. This talk overviews the microphysical elements of a severe Mediterranean storm in such a context, investigated with the aid of TRMM satellite and other remote sensing measurements, but guided by a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulation of the Friuli flood event. The data analysis for this paper was conducted by my research groups at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center in Huntsville, AL and Florida State University in Tallahassee, and in collaboration with Dr. Alberto Mugnai's research group at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Rome. The numerical modeling was conducted by Professor Oreg Tripoli and Ms. Giulia Panegrossi at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, using Professor Tripoli's nonhydrostatic modeling system (NMS). This is a scalable, fully nested mesoscale model capable of resolving nonhydrostatic circulations from regional scale down to cloud scale

Understanding the Relationships Between Lightning, Cloud Microphysics, and Airborne Radar-derived Storm Structure During Hurricane Karl (2010)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reinhart, Brad; Fuelberg, Henry; Blakeslee, Richard; Mach, Douglas; Heymsfield, Andrew; Bansemer, Aaron; Durden, Stephen L.; Tanelli, Simone; Heymsfield, Gerald; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn

2013-01-01

This study explores relationships between lightning, cloud microphysics, and tropical cyclone (TC) storm structure in Hurricane Karl (16 September 2010) using data collected by the NASA DC-8 and Global Hawk (GH) aircraft during NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment. The research capitalizes on the unique opportunity provided by GRIP to synthesize multiple datasets from two aircraft and analyze the microphysical and kinematic properties of an electrified TC. Five coordinated flight legs through Karl by the DC-8 and GH are investigated, focusing on the inner-core region (within 50km of the storm center) where the lightning was concentrated and the aircraft were well coordinated. GRIP datasets are used to compare properties of electrified and nonelectrified inner-core regions that are related to the noninductive charging mechanism, which is widely accepted to explain the observed electric fields within thunderstorms. Three common characteristics of Karl's electrified regions are identified: 1) strong updrafts of 10-20ms21, 2) deep mixed-phase layers indicated by reflectivities.30 dBZ extending several kilometers above the freezing level, and 3) microphysical environments consisting of graupel, very small ice particles, and the inferred presence of supercooled water. These characteristics describe an environment favorable for in situ noninductive charging and, hence, TC electrification. The electrified regions in Karl's inner core are attributable to a microphysical environment that was conducive to electrification because of occasional, strong convective updrafts in the eyewall.

Microphysical Modeling of Mineral Clouds in GJ1214 b and GJ436 b: Predicting Upper Limits on the Cloud-top Height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohno, Kazumasa; Okuzumi, Satoshi

2018-05-01

The ubiquity of clouds in the atmospheres of exoplanets, especially of super-Earths, is one of the outstanding issues for the transmission spectra survey. Understanding the formation process of clouds in super-Earths is necessary to interpret the observed spectra correctly. In this study, we investigate the vertical distributions of particle size and mass density of mineral clouds in super-Earths using a microphysical model that takes into account the vertical transport and growth of cloud particles in a self-consistent manner. We demonstrate that the vertical profiles of mineral clouds significantly vary with the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei and atmospheric metallicity. We find that the height of the cloud top increases with increasing metallicity as long as the metallicity is lower than the threshold. If the metallicity is larger than the threshold, the cloud-top height no longer increases appreciably with metallicity because coalescence yields larger particles of higher settling velocities. We apply our cloud model to GJ1214 b and GJ436 b, for which recent transmission observations suggest the presence of high-altitude opaque clouds. For GJ436 b, we show that KCl particles can ascend high enough to explain the observation. For GJ1214 b, by contrast, the height of KCl clouds predicted from our model is too low to explain its flat transmission spectrum. Clouds made of highly porous KCl particles could explain the observations if the atmosphere is highly metal-rich, and hence the particle microstructure might be a key to interpret the flat spectrum of GJ1214 b.

A methodology for in-situ and remote sensing of microphysical and radiative properties of contrails as they evolve into cirrus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, H. M.; Haywood, J.; Marenco, F.; O'Sullivan, D.; Meyer, J.; Thorpe, R.; Gallagher, M. W.; Krämer, M.; Bower, K. N.; Rädel, G.; Rap, A.; Forster, P.; Coe, H.

2012-03-01

Contrails and especially their evolution into cirrus-like clouds are thought to have very important effects on local and global radiation budgets, though are generally not well represented in global climate models. Lack of contrail parameterisations is due to the limited availability of in situ contrail measurements which are difficult to obtain. Here we present a methodology for successful sampling and interpretation of contrail microphysical and radiative data using both in situ and remote sensing instrumentation on board the FAAM BAe146 UK research aircraft as part of the COntrails Spreading Into Cirrus (COSIC) study. Forecast models were utilised to determine flight regions suitable for contrail formation and sampling; regions that were both free of cloud but showed a high probability of occurrence of air mass being supersaturated with respect to ice. The FAAM research aircraft, fitted with cloud microphysics probes and remote sensing instruments, formed a distinctive spiral-shaped contrail in the predicted area by flying in an orbit over the same ground position as the wind advected the contrails to the east. Parts of these contrails were sampled during the completion of four orbits, with sampled contrail regions being between 7 and 30 min old. Lidar measurements were useful for in-flight determination of the location and spatial extent of the contrails, and also to report extinction values that agreed well with those calculated from the microphysical data. A shortwave spectrometer was also able to detect the contrails, though the signal was weak due to the dispersion and evaporation of the contrails. Post-flight the UK Met Office NAME III dispersion model was successfully used as a tool for modelling the dispersion of the persistent contrail; determining its location and age, and determining when there was interference from other measured other aircraft contrails or when cirrus encroached on the area later in the flight. The persistent contrails were found to

A methodology for in-situ and remote sensing of microphysical and radiative properties of contrails as they evolve into cirrus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, H. M.; Haywood, J.; Marenco, F.; O'Sullivan, D.; Meyer, J.; Thorpe, R.; Gallagher, M. W.; Krämer, M.; Bower, K. N.; Rädel, G.; Rap, A.; Woolley, A.; Forster, P.; Coe, H.

2012-09-01

Contrails and especially their evolution into cirrus-like clouds are thought to have very important effects on local and global radiation budgets, though are generally not well represented in global climate models. Lack of contrail parameterisations is due to the limited availability of in situ contrail measurements which are difficult to obtain. Here we present a methodology for successful sampling and interpretation of contrail microphysical and radiative data using both in situ and remote sensing instrumentation on board the FAAM BAe146 UK research aircraft as part of the COntrails Spreading Into Cirrus (COSIC) study. Forecast models were utilised to determine flight regions suitable for contrail formation and sampling; regions that were both free of cloud but showed a high probability of occurrence of air mass being supersaturated with respect to ice. The FAAM research aircraft, fitted with cloud microphysics probes and remote sensing instruments, formed a distinctive spiral-shaped contrail in the predicted area by flying in an orbit over the same ground position as the wind advected the contrails to the east. Parts of these contrails were sampled during the completion of four orbits, with sampled contrail regions being between 7 and 30 min old. Lidar measurements were useful for in-flight determination of the location and spatial extent of the contrails, and also to report extinction values that agreed well with those calculated from the microphysical data. A shortwave spectrometer was also able to detect the contrails, though the signal was weak due to the dispersion and evaporation of the contrails. Post-flight the UK Met Office NAME III dispersion model was successfully used as a tool for modelling the dispersion of the persistent contrail; determining its location and age, and determining when there was interference from other measured aircraft contrails or when cirrus encroached on the area later in the flight. The persistent contrails were found to

Impact of large-scale dynamics on the microphysical properties of midlatitude cirrus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muhlbauer, Andreas; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Comstock, Jennifer M.

2014-04-16

In situ microphysical observations 3 of mid-latitude cirrus collected during the Department of Energy Small Particles in Cirrus (SPAR-TICUS) field campaign are combined with an atmospheric state classification for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to understand statistical relationships between cirrus microphysics and the large-scale meteorology. The atmospheric state classification is informed about the large-scale meteorology and state of cloudiness at the ARM SGP site by combining ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data with 14 years of continuous observations from the millimeter-wavelength cloud radar. Almost half of the cirrus cloud occurrences in the vicinity of the ARM SGPmore » site during SPARTICUS can be explained by three distinct synoptic condi- tions, namely upper-level ridges, mid-latitude cyclones with frontal systems and subtropical flows. Probability density functions (PDFs) of cirrus micro- physical properties such as particle size distributions (PSDs), ice number con- centrations and ice water content (IWC) are examined and exhibit striking differences among the different synoptic regimes. Generally, narrower PSDs with lower IWC but higher ice number concentrations are found in cirrus sam- pled in upper-level ridges whereas cirrus sampled in subtropical flows, fronts and aged anvils show broader PSDs with considerably lower ice number con- centrations but higher IWC. Despite striking contrasts in the cirrus micro- physics for different large-scale environments, the PDFs of vertical velocity are not different, suggesting that vertical velocity PDFs are a poor predic-tor for explaining the microphysical variability in cirrus. Instead, cirrus mi- crophysical contrasts may be driven by differences in ice supersaturations or aerosols.« less

Advancing alternatives analysis: The role of predictive toxicology in selecting safer chemical products and processes.

PubMed

Malloy, Timothy; Zaunbrecher, Virginia; Beryt, Elizabeth; Judson, Richard; Tice, Raymond; Allard, Patrick; Blake, Ann; Cote, Ila; Godwin, Hilary; Heine, Lauren; Kerzic, Patrick; Kostal, Jakub; Marchant, Gary; McPartland, Jennifer; Moran, Kelly; Nel, Andre; Ogunseitan, Oladele; Rossi, Mark; Thayer, Kristina; Tickner, Joel; Whittaker, Margaret; Zarker, Ken

2017-09-01

Alternatives analysis (AA) is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, assess, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. It requires toxicological data for the existing chemical and potential alternatives. Predictive toxicology uses in silico and in vitro approaches, computational models, and other tools to expedite toxicological data generation in a more cost-effective manner than traditional approaches. The present article briefly reviews the challenges associated with using predictive toxicology in regulatory AA, then presents 4 recommendations for its advancement. It recommends using case studies to advance the integration of predictive toxicology into AA, adopting a stepwise process to employing predictive toxicology in AA beginning with prioritization of chemicals of concern, leveraging existing resources to advance the integration of predictive toxicology into the practice of AA, and supporting transdisciplinary efforts. The further incorporation of predictive toxicology into AA would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients, and potentially increase the use of predictive toxicology in regulation more broadly. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:915-925. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2002-01-01

In this talk, five specific major GCE improvements: (1) ice microphysics, (2) longwave and shortwave radiative transfer processes, (3) land surface processes, (4) ocean surface fluxes and (5) ocean mixed layer processes are presented. The performance of these new GCE improvements will be examined. Observations are used for model validation.

Laboratory measurements of resistivity in warm dense plasmas relevant to the microphysics of brown dwarfs

DOE PAGES

Booth, N.; Robinson, A. P. L.; Hakel, P.; ...

2015-11-06

Since the observation of the first brown dwarf in 1995, numerous studies have led to a better understanding of the structures of these objects. Here we present a method for studying material resistivity in warm dense plasmas in the laboratory, which we relate to the microphysics of brown dwarfs through viscosity and electron collisions. Here we use X-ray polarimetry to determine the resistivity of a sulphur-doped plastic target heated to Brown Dwarf conditions by an ultra-intense laser. The resistivity is determined by matching the plasma physics model to the atomic physics calculations of the measured large, positive, polarization. Furthermore, themore » inferred resistivity is larger than predicted using standard resistivity models, suggesting that these commonly used models will not adequately describe the resistivity of warm dense plasma related to the viscosity of brown dwarfs.« less

Advanced propeller noise prediction in the time domain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farassat, F.; Dunn, M. H.; Spence, P. L.

1992-01-01

The time domain code ASSPIN gives acousticians a powerful technique of advanced propeller noise prediction. Except for nonlinear effects, the code uses exact solutions of the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equation with exact blade geometry and kinematics. By including nonaxial inflow, periodic loading noise, and adaptive time steps to accelerate computer execution, the development of this code becomes complete.

The use of a potential lightning index in multi-microphysical cloud-resolving simulations of a V-shape convective system.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagasio, Martina; Parodi, Antonio; Procopio, Renato; Rachidi, Farhad; Fiori, Elisabetta

2017-04-01

Lightning activity is a characteristic phenomenon of severe weather as confirmed by many studies on different weather regimes that reveal strong interplay between lightning phenomena and extreme rainfall process in thunderstorms. The improvement of the so-called total (i.e. cloud-to-ground and intra-cloud) lightning observation systems in the last decades has allowed to investigate the relationship between the lightning flash rate and the kinematic and microphysical properties of severe hydro-meteorological events characterized by strong convection. V-shape back-building Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) occurring over short periods of time have hit several times the Liguria region located in north-western Italy in the period between October 2010 and November 2014, generating flash-flood events responsible for hundreds of fatalities and millions of euros of damage. All these events showed an area of intense precipitation sweeping an arc of a few degrees around the warm conveyor belt originating about 50-60 km from the Liguria coastline. A second main ingredient was the presence of a convergence line, which supported the development and the maintenance of the aforementioned back-building process. Other common features were the persistence of such geometric configuration for many hours and the associated strong lightning activity. A methodological approach for the evaluation of these types of extreme rainfall and lightning convective events is presented for a back-building MCS event occurred in Genoa in 2014. A microphysics driven ensemble of WRF simulations at cloud-permitting grid spacing (1 km) with different microphysics parameterizations is used and compared to the available observational radar and lightning data. To pursue this aim, the performance of the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) as a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning occurrence in clouds, is computed and analyzed to gain further physical insight in

Revisiting Intel Xeon Phi optimization of Thompson cloud microphysics scheme in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mielikainen, Jarno; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen

2015-10-01

The Thompson cloud microphysics scheme is a sophisticated cloud microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The scheme is very suitable for massively parallel computation as there are no interactions among horizontal grid points. Compared to the earlier microphysics schemes, the Thompson scheme incorporates a large number of improvements. Thus, we have optimized the speed of this important part of WRF. Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) ushers in a new era of supercomputing speed, performance, and compatibility. It allows the developers to run code at trillions of calculations per second using the familiar programming model. In this paper, we present our results of optimizing the Thompson microphysics scheme on Intel Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) hardware. The Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor is the first product based on Intel MIC architecture, and it consists of up to 61 cores connected by a high performance on-die bidirectional interconnect. The coprocessor supports all important Intel development tools. Thus, the development environment is familiar one to a vast number of CPU developers. Although, getting a maximum performance out of MICs will require using some novel optimization techniques. New optimizations for an updated Thompson scheme are discusses in this paper. The optimizations improved the performance of the original Thompson code on Xeon Phi 7120P by a factor of 1.8x. Furthermore, the same optimizations improved the performance of the Thompson on a dual socket configuration of eight core Intel Xeon E5-2670 CPUs by a factor of 1.8x compared to the original Thompson code.

Aerosol and Cloud Microphysical Characteristics of Rifts and Gradients in Maritime Stratocumulus Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharon, Tarah M.; Albrecht, Bruce A.; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Minnis, Patrick; Khaiyer, Mandana M.; Van Reken, Timothy; Seinfeld, John; Flagan, Rick

2008-01-01

A cloud rift is characterized as a large-scale, persistent area of broken, low reflectivity stratocumulus clouds usually surrounded by a solid deck of stratocumulus. A rift observed off the coast of Monterey Bay, California on 16 July 1999 was studied to compare the aerosol and cloud microphysical properties in the rift with those of the surrounding solid stratus deck. Variables measured from an instrumented aircraft included temperature, water vapor, and cloud liquid water. These measurements characterized the thermodynamic properties of the solid deck and rift areas. Microphysical measurements made included aerosol, cloud drop and drizzle drop concentrations and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The microphysical characteristics in a solid stratus deck differ substantially from those of a broken, cellular rift where cloud droplet concentrations are a factor of 2 lower than those in the solid cloud. Further, CCN concentrations were found to be about 3 times greater in the solid cloud area compared with those in the rift and aerosol concentrations showed a similar difference as well. Although drizzle was observed near cloud top in parts of the solid stratus cloud, the largest drizzle rates were associated with the broken clouds within the rift area. In addition to marked differences in particle concentrations, evidence of a mesoscale circulation near the solid cloud rift boundary is presented. This mesoscale circulation provides a mechanism for maintaining a rift, but further study is required to understand the initiation of a rift and the conditions that may cause it to fill.

Retrievals of aerosol microphysics from simulations of spaceborne multiwavelength lidar measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whiteman, David N.; Pérez-Ramírez, Daniel; Veselovskii, Igor; Colarco, Peter; Buchard, Virginie

2018-01-01

In support of the Aerosol, Clouds, Ecosystems mission, simulations of a spaceborne multiwavelength lidar are performed based on global model simulations of the atmosphere along a satellite orbit track. The yield for aerosol microphysical inversions is quantified and comparisons are made between the aerosol microphysics inherent in the global model and those inverted from both the model's optical data and the simulated three backscatter and two extinction lidar measurements, which are based on the model's optical data. We find that yield can be significantly increased if inversions based on a reduced optical dataset of three backscatter and one extinction are acceptable. In general, retrieval performance is better for cases where the aerosol fine mode dominates although a lack of sensitivity to particles with sizes less than 0.1 μm is found. Lack of sensitivity to coarse mode cases is also found, in agreement with earlier studies. Surface area is generally the most robustly retrieved quantity. The work here points toward the need for ancillary data to aid in the constraints of the lidar inversions and also for joint inversions involving lidar and polarimeter measurements.

Evaluation of Warm-Rain Microphysical Parameterizations in Cloudy Boundary Layer Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, K.; Mechem, D. B.

2014-12-01

Common warm-rain microphysical parameterizations used for marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds are either tuned for specific cloud types (e.g., the Khairoutdinov and Kogan 2000 parameterization, "KK2000") or are altogether ill-posed (Kessler 1969). An ideal microphysical parameterization should be "unified" in the sense of being suitable across MBL cloud regimes that include stratocumulus, cumulus rising into stratocumulus, and shallow trade cumulus. The recent parameterization of Kogan (2013, "K2013") was formulated for shallow cumulus but has been shown in a large-eddy simulation environment to work quite well for stratocumulus as well. We report on our efforts to implement and test this parameterization into a regional forecast model (NRL COAMPS). Results from K2013 and KK2000 are compared with the operational Kessler parameterization for a 5-day period of the VOCALS-REx field campaign, which took place over the southeast Pacific. We focus on both the relative performance of the three parameterizations and also on how they compare to the VOCALS-REx observations from the NOAA R/V Ronald H. Brown, in particular estimates of boundary-layer depth, liquid water path (LWP), cloud base, and area-mean precipitation rate obtained from C-band radar.

Retrievals of Aerosol Microphysics from Simulations of Spaceborne Multiwavelength Lidar Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whiteman, David N.; Perez-Ramírez, Daniel; Veselovskii, Igor; Colarco, Peter; Buchard, Virginie

2017-01-01

In support of the Aerosol, Clouds, Ecosystems mission, simulations of a spaceborne multiwavelength lidar are performed based on global model simulations of the atmosphere along a satellite orbit track. The yield for aerosol microphysical inversions is quantified and comparisons are made between the aerosol microphysics inherent in the global model and those inverted from both the model's optical data and the simulated three backscatter and two extinction lidar measurements, which are based on the model's optical data. We find that yield can be significantly increased if inversions based on a reduced optical dataset of three backscatter and one extinction are acceptable. In general, retrieval performance is better for cases where the aerosol fine mode dominates although a lack of sensitivity to particles with sizes less than 0.1 microns is found. Lack of sensitivity to coarse mode cases is also found, in agreement with earlier studies. Surface area is generally the most robustly retrieved quantity. The work here points toward the need for ancillary data to aid in the constraints of the lidar inversions and also for joint inversions involving lidar and polarimeter measurements.

Tropical Convective Responses to Microphysical and Radiative Processes: A Sensitivity Study With a 2D Cloud Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Xiao-Fan; Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.; Tao, W.-K.

2004-01-01

Prognostic cloud schemes are increasingly used in weather and climate models in order to better treat cloud-radiation processes. Simplifications are often made in such schemes for computational efficiency, like the scheme being used in the National Centers for Environment Prediction models that excludes some microphysical processes and precipitation-radiation interaction. In this study, sensitivity tests with a 2D cloud resolving model are carried out to examine effects of the excluded microphysical processes and precipitation-radiation interaction on tropical thermodynamics and cloud properties. The model is integrated for 10 days with the imposed vertical velocity derived from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment. The experiment excluding the depositional growth of snow from cloud ice shows anomalous growth of cloud ice and more than 20% increase of fractional cloud cover, indicating that the lack of the depositional snow growth causes unrealistically large mixing ratio of cloud ice. The experiment excluding the precipitation-radiation interaction displays a significant cooling and drying bias. The analysis of heat and moisture budgets shows that the simulation without the interaction produces more stable upper troposphere and more unstable mid and lower troposphere than does the simulation with the interaction. Thus, the suppressed growth of ice clouds in upper troposphere and stronger radiative cooling in mid and lower troposphere are responsible for the cooling bias, and less evaporation of rain associated with the large-scale subsidence induces the drying in mid and lower troposphere.

Early Prediction of Lupus Nephritis Using Advanced Proteomics

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

urine samples for research were obtained, and information on the following laboratory measures was collected: BUN ( urea ), serum creatinine, serum... urine chemistry), medications and other clinical outcomes (overall disease activity, renal and overall damage). Specific Aim 2: Advanced proteomic...measured by the external standards. We concluded that serial measurements of plasma and urine NGAL may be valuable in predicting impending worsening of

Realistic dust and water cycles in the MarsWRF GCM using coupled two-moment microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Christopher; Richardson, Mark Ian; Mischna, Michael A.; Newman, Claire E.

2017-10-01

Dust and water ice aerosols significantly complicate the Martian climate system because the evolution of the two aerosol fields is coupled through microphysics and because both aerosols strongly interact with visible and thermal radiation. The combination of strong forcing feedback and coupling has led to various problems in understanding and modeling of the Martian climate: in reconciling cloud abundances at different locations in the atmosphere, in generating a stable dust cycle, and in preventing numerical instability within models.Using a new microphysics model inside the MarsWRF GCM we show that fully coupled simulations produce more realistic simulation of the Martian climate system compared to a dry, dust only simulations. In the coupled simulations, interannual variability and intra-annual variability are increased, strong 'solstitial pause' features are produced in both winter high latitude regions, and dust storm seasons are more varied, with early southern summer (Ls 180) dust storms and/or more than one storm occurring in some seasons.A new microphysics scheme was developed as a part of this work and has been included in the MarsWRF model. The scheme uses split spectral/spatial size distribution numerics with adaptive bin sizes to track particle size evolution. Significantly, this scheme is highly accurate, numerically stable, and is capable of running with time steps commensurate with those of the parent atmospheric model.

Retrieval of Polar Stratospheric Cloud Microphysical Properties from Lidar Measurements: Dependence on Particle Shape Assumptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichardt, J.; Reichardt, S.; Yang, P.; McGee, T. J.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A retrieval algorithm has been developed for the microphysical analysis of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) optical data obtained using lidar instrumentation. The parameterization scheme of the PSC microphysical properties allows for coexistence of up to three different particle types with size-dependent shapes. The finite difference time domain (FDTD) method has been used to calculate optical properties of particles with maximum dimensions equal to or less than 2 mu m and with shapes that can be considered more representative of PSCs on the scale of individual crystals than the commonly assumed spheroids. Specifically. these are irregular and hexagonal crystals. Selection of the optical parameters that are input to the inversion algorithm is based on a potential data set such as that gathered by two of the lidars on board the NASA DC-8 during the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 0 p (SAGE) Ozone Loss Validation experiment (SOLVE) campaign in winter 1999/2000: the Airborne Raman Ozone and Temperature Lidar (AROTEL) and the NASA Langley Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL). The 0 microphysical retrieval algorithm has been applied to study how particle shape assumptions affect the inversion of lidar data measured in leewave PSCs. The model simulations show that under the assumption of spheroidal particle shapes, PSC surface and volume density are systematically smaller than the FDTD-based values by, respectively, approximately 10-30% and approximately 5-23%.

Advanced Daily Prediction Model for National Suicide Numbers with Social Media Data.

PubMed

Lee, Kyung Sang; Lee, Hyewon; Myung, Woojae; Song, Gil-Young; Lee, Kihwang; Kim, Ho; Carroll, Bernard J; Kim, Doh Kwan

2018-04-01

Suicide is a significant public health concern worldwide. Social media data have a potential role in identifying high suicide risk individuals and also in predicting suicide rate at the population level. In this study, we report an advanced daily suicide prediction model using social media data combined with economic/meteorological variables along with observed suicide data lagged by 1 week. The social media data were drawn from weblog posts. We examined a total of 10,035 social media keywords for suicide prediction. We made predictions of national suicide numbers 7 days in advance daily for 2 years, based on a daily moving 5-year prediction modeling period. Our model predicted the likely range of daily national suicide numbers with 82.9% accuracy. Among the social media variables, words denoting economic issues and mood status showed high predictive strength. Observed number of suicides one week previously, recent celebrity suicide, and day of week followed by stock index, consumer price index, and sunlight duration 7 days before the target date were notable predictors along with the social media variables. These results strengthen the case for social media data to supplement classical social/economic/climatic data in forecasting national suicide events.

The microphysical properties of convective precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by a high-resolution cloud-resolving simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, W.; Liu, L.; Hu, Z.

2017-12-01

The microphysical properties of precipitating convective systems over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are unique because of the extremely high topography and special atmospheric conditions. In this study, the ground-based millimeter cloud radar and optical disdrometer observations during the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Scientific Experiment (TIPEX-III), and the high-resolution (600-m horizontal grid size) simulations with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences microphysics (CAMS) are used to investigate the microphysics and precipitation mechanism of a convection event on 24 July 2014. The model reasonably reproduces the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated rainfall yet the temporal evolution of rainfall rate has a two hours delay. The simulated raindrop size distribution (RSD) is in general agreement with the disdrometer measurement, and the number concentration for small raindrop is a certain degree overestimated. The RSD over the TP is wider than that over plain at the same latitude, implying that the precipitation may be more easily produced in the former. Results demonstrate that the leading ice crystal microphysical processes are the depositional growth of ice crystal and autoconversion of ice crystal to snow. The dominant source term of snow/graupel in convection is the accretion of cloud water by snow/graupel (riming) due to the plentiful supercooled cloud water over there. Note that the accretion of snow by rain to form graupel has a great contribution to graupel number concentration as the existence of large liquid particles in cold region over the TP. In addition, the microphysics-produced graupel fall out completely through the sedimentation process and accumulate near the melting layer with the rate of 0.09 g kg-1s-1. They then melt immediately to form rain water in warm region and half of them can finally reach the ground to form precipitation (the rest evaporated). Furthermore, the water vapor budgets analyses reveal that the surface

Microphysics-based black carbon aging in a global CTM: constraints from HIPPO observations and implications for global black carbon budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, C.; Li, Q.; Liou, K. N.; Qi, L.; Tao, S.; Schwarz, J. P.

2015-11-01

We develop and examine a microphysics-based black carbon (BC) aerosol aging scheme that accounts for condensation and coagulation processes in a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) by interpreting the BC measurements from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO, 2009-2011) using the model. We convert aerosol mass in the model to number concentration by assuming lognormal aerosol size distributions and compute the microphysical BC aging rate explicitly from the condensation of soluble materials onto hydrophobic BC and the coagulation between hydrophobic BC and preexisting soluble particles. The resulting aging rate is ∼ 4 times higher in the lower troposphere over source regions than that from a fixed aging scheme with an e-folding time of 1.2 days. The higher aging rate reflects the large emissions of sulfate-nitrate and secondary organic aerosol precursors hence faster BC aging through condensation and coagulation. In contrast, the microphysical aging is more than fivefold slower than the fixed aging in remote regions, where condensation and coagulation are weak. Globally BC microphysical aging is dominated by condensation, while coagulation contribution is largest over East China, India, and Central Africa. The fixed aging scheme results in an overestimate of HIPPO BC throughout the troposphere by a factor of 6 on average. The microphysical scheme reduces this discrepancy by a factor of ∼ 3, particularly in the middle and upper troposphere. It also leads to a threefold reduction in model bias in the latitudinal BC column burden averaged along the HIPPO flight tracks, with largest improvements in the tropics. The resulting global annual mean BC lifetime is 4.2 days and BC burden is 0.25 mg m-2, with 7.3 % of the burden at high altitudes (above 5 km). Wet scavenging accounts for 80.3 % of global BC deposition. We find that in source regions the microphysical aging rate is insensitive to aerosol size distribution, condensation threshold, and

Effect of aerosol microphysical properties on polarization of skylight: sensitivity study and measurements.

PubMed

Boesche, Eyk; Stammes, Piet; Ruhtz, Thomas; Preusker, Réne; Fischer, Juergen

2006-12-01

We analyze the sensitivity of the degree of linear polarization in the Sun's principal plane as a function of aerosol microphysical parameters: the real and imaginary parts of the refractive index, the median radius and geometric standard deviation of the bimodal size distribution (both fine and coarse modes), and the relative number weight of the fine mode at a wavelength of 675 nm. We use Mie theory for single-scattering simulations and the doubling-adding method with the inclusion of polarization for multiple scattering. It is shown that the behavior of the degree of linear polarization is highly sensitive to both the small mode of the bimodal size distribution and the real part of the refractive index of aerosols, as well as to the aerosol optical thickness; whereas not all parameters influence the polarization equally. A classification of the importance of the input parameters is given. This sensitivity study is applied to an analysis of ground-based polarization measurements. For the passive remote sensing of microphysical and optical properties of aerosols, a ground-based spectral polarization measuring system was built, which aims to measure the Stokes parameters I, Q, and U in the visible (from 410 to 789 nm) and near-infrared (from 674 to 995 nm) spectral range with a spectral resolution of 7 nm in the visible and 2.4 nm in the near infrared. We compare polarization measurements taken with radiative transfer simulations under both clear- and hazy-sky conditions in an urban area (Cabauw, The Netherlands, 51.58 degrees N, 4.56 degrees E). Conclusions about the microphysical properties of aerosol are drawn from the comparison.

Microphysical Properties and Water Budget for Summer Convective Clouds over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, X.; Tang, J.; Chang, Y.

2017-12-01

During the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Scientific Experiment (TIPEX-III), the clouds and precipitation processes over the Tibetan Plateau have been intensively investigated. On basis of field campaign, the cloud microphysical structure, water transformation and budget properties for typical convective precipitation processes in the summer season of 2014 over the plateau are studied using mesoscale numerical prediction model (WRF) combined with observational data collected during the experiment. The results indicate that WRF model could reproduce the general characteristics of diurnal variation of clouds and precipitation process over the plateau, however, the temporal and spatial distribution and intensity of cloud bands and precipitation simulated by WRF model still had large differences with those observed. Ice process played a critical role in the development of summer convective clouds and precipitation over the plateau. The surface precipitation was primarily formed by the melting process of graupel particles. Although the warm cloud microphysical process had small direct contribution on the surface precipitation, it had an important contribution in the formation of graupel embryos. High amount of supercooled cloud water content and graupel particles could be found in the clouds. The formation and growth of snow particles relied on the conversion of ice crystal and the aggregation with ice crystal over 12 km (-40°), but the formation of snow particles below 12 km (-40°)was dependent on the conversion of Bergeron process of ice crystals and its growth resulted from riming process with supercooled cloud water. The accretion process of supercooled raindrops by ice crystal and snow particles contributed to the production of graupel embryos and their growth mainly relied on the riming process with supercooled cloud water and aggregation process with snow particles. The mean daily conversion rate from vapor to precipitation was as high as 27.27%, which is

SeReNA Project: studying aerosol interactions with cloud microphysics in the Amazon Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correia, A. L.; Catandi, P. B.; Frigeri, F. F.; Ferreira, W. C.; Martins, J.; Artaxo, P.

2012-12-01

Cloud microphysics and its interaction with aerosols is a key atmospheric process for weather and climate. Interactions between clouds and aerosols can impact Earth's radiative balance, its hydrological and energetic cycles, and are responsible for a large fraction of the uncertainty in climatic models. On a planetary scale, the Amazon Basin is one of the most significant land sources of moisture and latent heat energy. Moreover, every year this region undergoes mearked seasonal shifts in its atmospheric state, transitioning from clean to heavily polluted conditions due to the occurrence of seasonal biomass burning fires, that emit large amounts of smoke to the atmosphere. These conditions make the Amazon Basin a special place to study aerosol-cloud interactions. The SeReNA Project ("Remote sensing of clouds and their interaction with aerosols", from the acronym in Portuguese, @SerenaProject on Twitter) is an ongoing effort to experimentally investigate the impact of aerosols upon cloud microphysics in Amazonia. Vertical profiles of droplet effective radius of water and ice particles, in single convective clouds, can be derived from measurements of the emerging radiation on cloud sides. Aerosol optical depth, cloud top properties, and meteorological parameters retrieved from satellites will be correlated with microphysical properties derived for single clouds. Maps of cloud brightness temperature will allow building temperature vs. effective radius profiles for hydrometeors in single clouds. Figure 1 shows an example extracted from Martins et al. (2011), illustrating a proof-of-concept for the kind of result expected within the framework for the SeReNA Project. The results to be obtained will help foster the quantitative knowledge about interactions between aerosols and clouds in a microphysical level. These interactions are a fundamental process in the context of global climatic changes, they are key to understanding basic processes within clouds and how aerosols

Echocardiography and risk prediction in advanced heart failure: incremental value over clinical markers.

PubMed

Agha, Syed A; Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P; Shih, Jeffrey; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V; Giamouzis, Grigorios; Anarado, Perry; Mangalat, Deepa; Hussain, Imad; Book, Wendy; Laskar, Sonjoy; Smith, Andrew L; Martin, Randolph; Butler, Javed

2009-09-01

Incremental value of echocardiography over clinical parameters for outcome prediction in advanced heart failure (HF) is not well established. We evaluated 223 patients with advanced HF receiving optimal therapy (91.9% angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker, 92.8% beta-blockers, 71.8% biventricular pacemaker, and/or defibrillator use). The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) was used as the reference clinical risk prediction scheme. The incremental value of echocardiographic parameters for event prediction (death or urgent heart transplantation) was measured by the improvement in fit and discrimination achieved by addition of standard echocardiographic parameters to the SHFM. After a median follow-up of 2.4 years, there were 38 (17.0%) events (35 deaths; 3 urgent transplants). The SHFM had likelihood ratio (LR) chi(2) 32.0 and C statistic 0.756 for event prediction. Left ventricular end-systolic volume, stroke volume, and severe tricuspid regurgitation were independent echocardiographic predictors of events. The addition of these parameters to SHFM improved LR chi(2) to 72.0 and C statistic to 0.866 (P < .001 and P=.019, respectively). Reclassifying the SHFM-predicted risk with use of the echocardiography-added model resulted in improved prognostic separation. Addition of standard echocardiographic variables to the SHFM results in significant improvement in risk prediction for patients with advanced HF.

Microphysical Properties of Alaskan Volcanic Ash

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puthukkudy, A.; Espinosa, R.; Rocha Lima, A.; Remer, L.; Colarco, P. R.; Whelley, P.; Krotkov, N. A.; Young, K.; Dubovik, O.; Wallace, K.; Martins, J. V.

2017-12-01

Volcanic ash has the potential to cause a variety of severe problems for human health and the environment. Therefore, effective monitoring of the dispersion and fallout from volcanic ash clouds and characterization of the aerosol particle properties are essential. One way to acquire information from volcanic clouds is through satellite remote sensing: such images have greater coverage than ground-based observations and can present a "big picture" perspective. A challenge of remote sensing is that assumptions of certain properties of the target are often a pre-requisite for making accurate and quantitative retrievals. For example, detailed information about size distribution, sphericity, and optical properties of the constituent matter is needed or must be assumed. The same kind of information is also needed for atmospheric transport models to properly simulate the dispersion and fallout of volcanic ash. Presented here is a laboratory method to determine the microphysical and optical properties of volcanic ash samples collected from two Alaskan volcanoes with markedly different compositions. Our method uses a Polarized Imaging Nephelometer (PI-Neph) and a system that re-suspends the particles in an air flow. The PI-Neph measures angular light scattering and polarization of the re-suspended particles from 3o to 175o in scattering angle, with an angular resolution of 1o . Primary measurements include phase function and polarized phase function at three wavelengths (445nm, 532nm, and 661nm). Size distribution, sphericity, and complex refractive index are retrieved indirectly from the PI-Neph measurements using the GRASP (Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties) inversion algorithm. We report the results of this method applied to samples from the Mt. Okmok (2008) and Mt. Katmai (1912) volcanic eruptions. To our knowledge, this is the first time direct measurements of phase matrix elements of ash from Mt. Okmok and Mt. Katmai have been reported. Retrieved

Advanced Daily Prediction Model for National Suicide Numbers with Social Media Data

PubMed Central

Lee, Kyung Sang; Lee, Hyewon; Myung, Woojae; Song, Gil-Young; Lee, Kihwang; Kim, Ho; Carroll, Bernard J.; Kim, Doh Kwan

2018-01-01

Objective Suicide is a significant public health concern worldwide. Social media data have a potential role in identifying high suicide risk individuals and also in predicting suicide rate at the population level. In this study, we report an advanced daily suicide prediction model using social media data combined with economic/meteorological variables along with observed suicide data lagged by 1 week. Methods The social media data were drawn from weblog posts. We examined a total of 10,035 social media keywords for suicide prediction. We made predictions of national suicide numbers 7 days in advance daily for 2 years, based on a daily moving 5-year prediction modeling period. Results Our model predicted the likely range of daily national suicide numbers with 82.9% accuracy. Among the social media variables, words denoting economic issues and mood status showed high predictive strength. Observed number of suicides one week previously, recent celebrity suicide, and day of week followed by stock index, consumer price index, and sunlight duration 7 days before the target date were notable predictors along with the social media variables. Conclusion These results strengthen the case for social media data to supplement classical social/economic/climatic data in forecasting national suicide events. PMID:29614852

Circulating CD147 predicts mortality in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Lee, Aimei; Rode, Anthony; Nicoll, Amanda; Maczurek, Annette E; Lim, Lucy; Lim, Seok; Angus, Peter; Kronborg, Ian; Arachchi, Niranjan; Gorelik, Alexandra; Liew, Danny; Warner, Fiona J; McCaughan, Geoffrey W; McLennan, Susan V; Shackel, Nicholas A

2016-02-01

The glycoprotein CD147 has a role in tumor progression, is readily detectable in the circulation, and is abundantly expressed in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Advanced HCC patients are a heterogeneous group with some individuals having dismal survival. The aim of this study was to examine circulating soluble CD147 levels as a prognostic marker in HCC patients. CD147 was measured in 277 patients (110 HCC, 115 chronic liver disease, and 52 non-liver disease). Clinical data included etiology, tumor progression, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, and treatment response. Patients with HCC were stratified into two groups based upon the 75th percentile of CD147 levels (24 ng/mL). CD147 in HCC correlated inversely with poor survival (P = 0.031). Increased CD147 predicted poor survival in BCLC stages C and D (P = 0.045), and CD147 levels >24 ng/mL predicted a significantly diminished 90-day and 180-day survival time (hazard ratio [HR] = 6.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1-63.2; P = 0.0045 and HR = 2.8; 95% CI: 1.2-12.6; P = 0.028, respectively). In BCLC stage C, CD147 predicted prognosis; levels >24 ng/mL were associated with a median survival of 1.5 months compared with 6.5 months with CD147 levels ≤24 ng/mL (P = 0.03). CD147 also identified patients with a poor prognosis independent from treatment frequency, modality, and tumor size. Circulating CD147 is an independent marker of survival in advanced HCC. CD147 requires further evaluation as a potential new prognostic measure in HCC to identify patients with advanced disease who have a poor prognosis. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

A Fast and Efficient Version of the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) Global Aerosol Microphysics Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Yunha; Adams, P. J.

2012-01-01

This study develops more computationally efficient versions of the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics algorithms, collectively called Fast TOMAS. Several methods for speeding up the algorithm were attempted, but only reducing the number of size sections was adopted. Fast TOMAS models, coupled to the GISS GCM II-prime, require a new coagulation algorithm with less restrictive size resolution assumptions but only minor changes in other processes. Fast TOMAS models have been evaluated in a box model against analytical solutions of coagulation and condensation and in a 3-D model against the original TOMAS (TOMAS-30) model. Condensation and coagulation in the Fast TOMAS models agree well with the analytical solution but show slightly more bias than the TOMAS-30 box model. In the 3-D model, errors resulting from decreased size resolution in each process (i.e., emissions, cloud processing wet deposition, microphysics) are quantified in a series of model sensitivity simulations. Errors resulting from lower size resolution in condensation and coagulation, defined as the microphysics error, affect number and mass concentrations by only a few percent. The microphysics error in CN70CN100 (number concentrations of particles larger than 70100 nm diameter), proxies for cloud condensation nuclei, range from 5 to 5 in most regions. The largest errors are associated with decreasing the size resolution in the cloud processing wet deposition calculations, defined as cloud-processing error, and range from 20 to 15 in most regions for CN70CN100 concentrations. Overall, the Fast TOMAS models increase the computational speed by 2 to 3 times with only small numerical errors stemming from condensation and coagulation calculations when compared to TOMAS-30. The faster versions of the TOMAS model allow for the longer, multi-year simulations required to assess aerosol effects on cloud lifetime and precipitation.

In Situ Microphysical and Scattering Properties of Falling Snow in GPM-GCPEx

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, G.; Nesbitt, S. W.; McFarquhar, G. M.; Poellot, M.; Chandrasekar, C. V.; Hudak, D. R.

2013-12-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement Cold-season Precipitation Experiment (GPM-GCPEx) field campaign was conducted near Egbert, Ontario, Canada in January-February 2012 to study the physical characteristics and microwave radiative properties of the column of hydrometeors in cold season precipitation events. Extensive in situ aircraft profiling was conducted with the University of North Dakota (UND) Citation aircraft within the volume of several remote sensing instruments within a wide variety of precipitation events, from snow to freezing drizzle. Several of the primary goals of GCPEx include improving our understanding of the microphysical characteristics of falling snow and how those characteristics relate to the multi-wavelength radiative characteristics In this study, particle size distribution parameters, effective particle densities, and habit distributions are determined using in-situ cloud measurements obtained on the UND citation using the High Volume Precipitation Spectrometer, the Cloud Particle Imager, and the Cloud Imaging Probe. These quantities are matched compared to multi-frequency radar measurements from the Environment Canada King City C-Band and NASA D3R Ku-Ka Band dual polarization radars. These analysis composites provide the basis for direct evaluation of particle size distributions and observed multi-wavelength and multi-polarization radar observations, including radar reflectivity, differential reflectivity, and dual wavelength ratio) in falling snow at weather radar and GPM radar frequencies. Theoretical predictions from Mie, Rayleigh-Gans, and more complex snowflake aggregate scattering model predictions using observed particle size distributions are compared with observed radar scattering characteristics along the Citation flight track.

A Monte-Carlo Analysis of Organic Volatility with Aerosol Microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chloe; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Bauer, Susanne E.

2017-04-01

A newly developed box model, MATRIX-VBS, includes the volatility-basis set (VBS) framework in an aerosol microphysical scheme MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state), which resolves aerosol mass and number concentrations and aerosol mixing state. The new scheme advanced the representation of organic aerosols in models by improving the traditional and simplistic treatment of organic aerosols as non-volatile and with a fixed size distribution. Further development includes adding the condensation of organics on coarse mode aerosols - dust and sea salt, thus making all organics in the system semi-volatile. To test and simplify the model, a Monte-Carlo analysis is performed to pin point which processes affect organics the most under varied chemical and meteorological conditions. Since the model's parameterizations have the ability to capture a very wide range of conditions, all possible scenarios on Earth across the whole parameter space, including temperature, humidity, location, emissions and oxidant levels, are examined. The Monte-Carlo simulations provide quantitative information on the sensitivity of the newly developed model and help us understand how organics are affecting the size distribution, mixing state and volatility distribution at varying levels of meteorological conditions and pollution levels. In addition, these simulations give information on which parameters play a critical role in the aerosol distribution and evolution in the atmosphere and which do not, that will facilitate the simplification of the box model, an important step in its implementation in the global model GISS ModelE as a module.

In-Situ Microphysics from the MPACE IOP

DOE Data Explorer

McFarquhar, Greg

2008-01-15

Best estimates of the size distributions of supercooled water droplets and ice crystals for mixed-phase clouds measured during M-PACE for spiral ascents/descents over Barrow and Oliktok Point, and for ramped ascents/descents between Barrow and Oliktok Point. Our best estimates of the bulk microphysical properties such as ice water content (IWC), liquid water content (LWC), effective radius of ice crystals defined following Fu (1996) (rei), effective radius of supercooled water droplets (rew), total ice crystal number concentration (Ni), total water droplet number concentration (Nw) and total condensed water content (CWC), are also provided. The quantities were derived from the FSSP, 1DC, 2DC, HVPS and the CVI. Note HVPS data are only available after 10 Oct 2004 and some procedures have been developed to account for the missing data.

Microphysics in West African squall line with an Xband polarimetric radar and an Hydrometeor Identification Scheme: comparison with in situ measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazenave, F.; Gosset, M.; Kacou, M.; Alcoba, M.; Fontaine, E.

2015-12-01

A better knowledge on the microphysics of tropical continental convective systems is needed in order to improve quantitative precipitation measurements in the Tropics. Satellite passive microwave estimation of tropical rainfall could be improved with a better parameterization of the icy hydrometeors in the Bayesian RAIN estimation algorithm (BRAIN, Viltard et al., 2006) used over continental tropics. To address this important issue specific campaigns that combine aircraft based in situ microphysics probing and polarimetric radar have been organized as part of the CNES/ISRO satellite mission Megha-Tropiques. The first microphysics validation campaign was set up in Niamey in August 2010. The field deployment included the AMMA-CATH 56 rain gages, 3 disdrometers, 2 meteorological radars including the C-band MIT and the Xport X-band dual polarisation radar, and a 4 weeks campaign with the instrumented Falcon 20 from the french operator for environmental research aircrafts equipped with several microphysics probes and the 94Ghz cloud radar RASTA. The objective is to combine scales and methods to converge towards a parameterization of the ice size, mass and density laws inside continental Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). The Particle IDentification algorithm (PID) developed by the Colorado State University (CSU) adapted to the band X by B. Dolan (Dolan et al. 2009) is used to classify seven kind of particles: drizzle or light rain, moderate to heavy rain, wet and dry graupel, wet and dry aggregates and ice crystals. On a limited number of systems, the airborne microphysics sensors provide a detailed in situ reference on the Particle Size Distribution (PSD) that can be compared with the radar PID in the radar pixels located along the flight trajectory. An original approach has been developed for the radar - in situ comparison: it consists in simulating synthetic radar variables from the microphysics probe information and compare the 2 data sets in a common 'radar space

Use of a W-band polarimeter to measure microphysical characteristics of clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galloway, John Charles

1997-08-01

This dissertation presents W-Band measurements of the copolar correlation co-efficient and Doppler spectrum taken from the University of Wyoming King Air research airplane. These measurements demonstrate the utility of making W-Band polarimetric and Doppler spectrum measurements from an airborne platform in investigations of cloud microphysical properties. Comparison of copolar correlation coefficient measurements with aircraft in situ probe measurements verifies that polarimetric measurements indicate phase transitions, and hydrometeor alignment in ice clouds. Melting layers in clouds were measured by the W-Band system on board the King Air during 1992 and 1994. Both measurements established the use of the linear depolarization ratio, LDR, to locate the melting layer using an airborne W-Band system. The measurement during 1994 allowed direct comparison of the magnitude of the copolar correlation coefficient with the values of LDR. The relation between the measurements corresponds with a predicted relationship between the two parameters for observation of particles exhibiting isotropy in the plane of polarization. Measurements of needle crystals at horizontal and vertical incidence provided further evidence that the copolar correlation coefficient values agreed with the expected response from hydrometeors possessing a preferred alignment for the side looking case, and hydrometeors without a preferred alignment for the vertical incidence case. Observation of significant specific differential phase at vertical incidence, the first reported at W-Band, corresponded to a significant increase in differential reflectivity overhead, which was most likely produced by hydrometeor alignment driven by cloud electrification. Comparison of the drop size distributions estimated using the Doppler spectra with those measured by the wingtip probes on the King Air reveals that the radar system is better suited under some liquid cloud conditions to provide microphysical measurements

Vertical structure and microphysical characteristics of precipitation on the high terrain and lee side of the Olympic Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagrodnik, J. P.; McMurdie, L. A.; Houze, R.

2017-12-01

As mid-latitude cyclones pass over coastal mountain ranges, the processes producing their clouds and precipitation are modified when they encounter complex terrain, leading to a maximum in precipitation fallout on the windward slopes and a minimum on the lee side. The precipitation that does reach the high terrain and lee side of a mountain range can be theoretically determined by a complex interaction between the dynamics of air lifting over the terrain, the thermodynamics of moist air, and the microphysical time required to grow particles large enough to fall out. To date, there have been few observational studies that have focused on the nonlinear microphysical processes contributing to the variability of precipitation that is received on the lee side slopes of a mountain range such as the Olympic Mountains. The 2015-16 Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) collected unprecedented observations on the high terrain and lee side of the Olympic Mountains including frequent soundings on Vancouver Island, dual-polarization Doppler radar, multi-frequency airborne radar, and ground-based particle size and crystal habit observations at the higher elevation Hurricane Ridge site. We utilize these observations to examine the evolution of the vertical structure and microphysical precipitation characteristics over the high terrain and leeside within the context of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that evolve during the passage of cold season mid-latitude cyclones. The primary goal is to determine the degree to which the observed variability in lee side precipitation amount and microphysical properties are controlled by variations in temperature, flow speed and direction, shear, and stability associated with characteristic synoptic storm sectors and frontal passages.

Simulations of NLC formation using a microphysical model driven by three-dimensional dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirsch, Annekatrin; Becker, Erich; Rapp, Markus; Megner, Linda; Wilms, Henrike

2014-05-01

Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) represent an optical phenomenon occurring in the polar summer mesopause region. These clouds have been known since the late 19th century. Current physical understanding of NLCs is based on numerous observational and theoretical studies, in recent years especially observations from satellites and by lidars from ground. Theoretical studies based on numerical models that simulate NLCs with the underlying microphysical processes are uncommon. Up to date no three-dimensional numerical simulations of NLCs exist that take all relevant dynamical scales into account, i.e., from the planetary scale down to gravity waves and turbulence. Rather, modeling is usually restricted to certain flow regimes. In this study we make a more rigorous attempt and simulate NLC formation in the environment of the general circulation of the mesopause region by explicitly including gravity waves motions. For this purpose we couple the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmosphere (CARMA) to gravity-wave resolving dynamical fields simulated beforehand with the Kuehlungsborn Mechanistic Circulation Model (KMCM). In our case, the KMCM is run with a horizontal resolution of T120 which corresponds to a minimum horizontal wavelength of 350 km. This restriction causes the resolved gravity waves to be somewhat biased to larger scales. The simulated general circulation is dynamically controlled by these waves in a self-consitent fashion and provides realistic temperatures and wind-fields for July conditions. Assuming a water vapor mixing ratio profile in agreement with current observations results in reasonable supersaturations of up to 100. In a first step, CARMA is applied to a horizontal section covering the Northern hemisphere. The vertical resolution is 120 levels ranging from 72 to 101 km. In this paper we will present initial results of this coupled dynamical microphysical model focussing on the interaction of waves and turbulent diffusion with NLC-microphysics.

Explicit simulation of ice particle habits in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashino, Tempei

2007-05-01

This study developed a scheme for explicit simulation of ice particle habits in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models. The scheme is called Spectral Ice Habit Prediction System (SHIPS), and the goal is to retain growth history of ice particles in the Eulerian dynamics framework. It diagnoses characteristics of ice particles based on a series of particle property variables (PPVs) that reflect history of microphysieal processes and the transport between mass bins and air parcels in space. Therefore, categorization of ice particles typically used in bulk microphysical parameterization and traditional bin models is not necessary, so that errors that stem from the categorization can be avoided. SHIPS predicts polycrystals as well as hexagonal monocrystals based on empirically derived habit frequency and growth rate, and simulates the habit-dependent aggregation and riming processes by use of the stochastic collection equation with predicted PPVs. Idealized two dimensional simulations were performed with SHIPS in a NWP model. The predicted spatial distribution of ice particle habits and types, and evolution of particle size distributions showed good quantitative agreement with observation This comprehensive model of ice particle properties, distributions, and evolution in clouds can be used to better understand problems facing wide range of research disciplines, including microphysics processes, radiative transfer in a cloudy atmosphere, data assimilation, and weather modification.

Improved predictions of atmospheric icing in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engdahl, Bjørg Jenny; Nygaard, Bjørn Egil; Thompson, Gregory; Bengtsson, Lisa; Berntsen, Terje

2017-04-01

Atmospheric icing of ground structures is a problem in cold climate locations such as Norway. During the 2013/2014 winter season two major power lines in southern Norway suffered severe damage due to ice loads exceeding their design values by two to three times. Better methods are needed to estimate the ice loads that affect various infrastructure, and better models are needed to improve the prediction of severe icing events. The Wind, Ice and Snow loads Impact on Infrastructure and the Natural Environment (WISLINE) project, was initiated to address this problem and to explore how a changing climate may affect the ice loads in Norway. Creating better forecasts of icing requires a proper simulation of supercooled liquid water (SLW). Preliminary results show that the operational numerical weather prediction model (HARMONIE-AROME) at MET-Norway generates considerably lower values of SLW as compared with the WRF model when run with the Thompson microphysics scheme. Therefore, we are piecewise implementing specific processes found in the Thompson scheme into the AROME model and testing the resulting impacts to prediction of SLW and structural icing. Both idealized and real icing cases are carried out to test the newly modified AROME microphysics scheme. Besides conventional observations, a unique set of specialized instrumentation for icing measurements are used for validation. Initial results of this investigation will be presented at the conference.

Microphysics of Magnetic Reconnection: Experiments on RSX and Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intrator, T. P.; Furno, I. G.; Hsu, S. C.; Lapenta, G.; Ricci, P.

2003-12-01

Using a unique LANL laboratory facility, the Reconnection Scaling Experiment (RSX), and a state-of-the-art LANL numerical code, CELESTE3D, we are beginning an experimental and numerical study of the microphysics of 2D and 3D "fast magnetic reconnection". RSX at Los Alamos National Laboratory is already operational and producing research plasmas. In RSX, the radial boundaries and thus the reconnection geometry are not constrained to two dimensions. It is capable of investigating 3D magnetic reconnection occurring in a free-boundary 3D linear geometry during the coalescence of two parallel current plasma channels, which are produced by using plasma gun technology. RSX can also scale the guide field (ion gyroradius) independently of other reconnection parameters. Frontier reconnection research invokes (1) `anomalous' microinstability-induced resistivity, which enhances dissipation rates inside the reconnection layer and (2) terms of the two-fluid generalized Ohm's law which introduce whistler and kinetic Alfvén wave dynamics. The two-fluid approach predicts (a) a two-spatial-scale spatial structure of the reconnection layer, with outer (inner) thickness equal to the ion (electron) skin depth and (b) Hall currents in the reconnection plane and out-of-plane magnetic field on the electron scale. We will show spatially resolved RSX experimental measurements of the dynamics of the reconnection layer, and take advantage of our scaling capabilities to address the applicability of the two-fluid approach.

Impact of Cloud Analysis on Numerical Weather Prediction in the Galician Region of Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souto, M. J.; Balseiro, C. F.; Pérez-Muñuzuri, V.; Xue, M.; Brewster, K.

2003-01-01

The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) is applied to operational numerical weather prediction in Galicia, northwest Spain. The model is run daily for 72-h forecasts at a 10-km horizontal spacing. Located on the northwest coast of Spain and influenced by the Atlantic weather systems, Galicia has a high percentage (nearly 50%) of rainy days per year. For these reasons, the precipitation processes and the initialization of moisture and cloud fields are very important. Even though the ARPS model has a sophisticated data analysis system (`ADAS') that includes a 3D cloud analysis package, because of operational constraints, the current forecast starts from the 12-h forecast of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Aviation Model (AVN). Still, procedures from the ADAS cloud analysis are being used to construct the cloud fields based on AVN data and then are applied to initialize the microphysical variables in ARPS. Comparisons of the ARPS predictions with local observations show that ARPS can predict very well both the daily total precipitation and its spatial distribution. ARPS also shows skill in predicting heavy rains and high winds, as observed during November 2000, and especially in the prediction of the 5 November 2000 storm that caused widespread wind and rain damage in Galicia. It is demonstrated that the cloud analysis contributes to the success of the precipitation forecasts.

Do plasma concentrations of apelin predict prognosis in patients with advanced heart failure?

PubMed

Dalzell, Jonathan R; Jackson, Colette E; Chong, Kwok S; McDonagh, Theresa A; Gardner, Roy S

2014-01-01

Apelin is an endogenous vasodilator and inotrope, plasma concentrations of which are reduced in advanced heart failure (HF). We determined the prognostic significance of plasma concentrations of apelin in advanced HF. Plasma concentrations of apelin were measured in 182 patients with advanced HF secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The predictive value of apelin for the primary end point of all-cause mortality was assessed over a median follow-up period of 544 (IQR: 196-923) days. In total, 30 patients (17%) reached the primary end point. Of those patients with a plasma apelin concentration above the median, 14 (16%) reached the primary end point compared with 16 (17%) of those with plasma apelin levels below the median (p = NS). NT-proBNP was the most powerful prognostic marker in this population (log rank statistic: 10.37; p = 0.001). Plasma apelin concentrations do not predict medium to long-term prognosis in patients with advanced HF secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

An Investigation of the Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOx Production using DC3 Observations and the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carey, Lawrence; Koshak, William; Peterson, Harold; Matthee, Retha; Bain, Lamont

2013-01-01

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TM) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell

An Investigation of the Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOX Production using DC3 Observations and the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carey, Lawrence; Koshak, William; Peterson, Harold; Matthee, Retha; Bain, Lamont

2013-01-01

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell

Simulation of the Upper Clouds and Hazes of Venus Using a Microphysical Cloud Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGouldrick, K.

2012-12-01

Several different microphysical and chemical models of the clouds of Venus have been developed in attempts to reproduce the in situ observations of the Venus clouds made by Pioneer Venus, Venera, and Vega descent probes (Turco et al., 1983 (Icarus 53:18-25), James et al, 1997 (Icarus 129:147-171), Imamura and Hashimoto, 2001 (J. Atm. Sci. 58:3597-3612), and McGouldrick and Toon, 2007 (Icarus 191:1-24)). The model of McGouldrick and Toon has successfully reproduced observations within the condensational middle and lower cloud decks of Venus (between about 48 and 57 km altitude, experiencing conditions similar to Earth's troposphere) and it now being extended to also simulate the microphysics occurring in the upper cloud deck (between altitudes of about 57 km and 70 km, experiencing conditions similar to Earth's stratosphere). In the upper clouds, aerosols composed of a solution of sulfuric acid in water are generated from the reservoir of available water vapor and sulfuric acid vapor that is photochemically produced. The manner of particle creation (e.g., activation of cloud condensation nuclei, or homogeneous or heterogeneous nucleation) is still incompletely understood, and the atmospheric environment has been measured to be not inconsistent with frozen aerosol particles (either sulfuric acid monohydrate or water ice). The material phase, viscosity, and surface tension of the aerosols (which are strongly dependent up on the local temperature and water vapor concentration) can affect the coagulation efficiencies of the aerosol, leading to variations in the size distributions, and other microphysical and radiative properties. Here, I present recent work exploring the effects of nucleation rates and coalescence efficiencies on the simulated Venus upper clouds.

A microphysical model explains rate-and-state friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jianye; Spiers, Christopher J.

2015-04-01

The rate-and-state friction (RSF) laws were originally developed as a phenomenological description of the frictional behavior observed in lab experiments. In previous studies, the empirical RSF laws have been extensively and quite successfully applied to fault mechanisms. However, these laws can not readily be envisioned in terms of the underlying physics. There are several critical discrepancies between seismological constraints on RSF behavior associated with earthquakes and lab-derived RSF parameters, in particular regarding the static stress drop and characteristic slip distance associated with seismic events. Moreover, lab friction studies can address only limited fault topographies, displacements, experimental durations and P-T conditions, which means that scale issues, and especially processes like dilatation and fluid-rock interaction, cannot be fully taken into account. Without a physical basis accounting for such effects, extrapolation of lab-derived RSF data to nature involves significant, often unknown uncertainties. In order to more reliably apply experimental results to natural fault zones, and notably to extrapolate lab data beyond laboratory pressure, temperature and velocity conditions, an understanding of the microphysical mechanisms governing fault frictional behavior is required. Here, following some pioneering efforts (e.g. Niemeijer and Spiers, 2007; Den Hartog and Spiers, 2014), a mechanism-based microphysical model is developed for describing the frictional behavior of carbonate fault gouge, assuming that the frictional behavior seen in lab experiments is controlled by competing processes of intergranular slip versus contact creep by pressure solution. The model basically consists of two governing equations derived from energy/entropy balance considerations and the kinematic relations that apply to a granular fault gouge undergoing shear and dilation/compaction. These two equations can be written as ˙τ/K = Vimp- Lt[λ˙γsbps +(1- �

Predictive factors for overall quality of life in patients with advanced cancer.

PubMed

Cramarossa, Gemma; Chow, Edward; Zhang, Liying; Bedard, Gillian; Zeng, Liang; Sahgal, Arjun; Vassiliou, Vassilios; Satoh, Takefumi; Foro, Palmira; Ma, Brigette B Y; Chie, Wei-Chu; Chen, Emily; Lam, Henry; Bottomley, Andrew

2013-06-01

This study examined which domains/symptoms from the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 15 Palliative (QLQ-C15-PAL), an abbreviated version of the health-related EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire designed for palliative cancer patients, were predictive of overall quality of life (QOL) in advanced cancer patients. Patients with advanced cancer from six countries completed the QLQ-C15-PAL at consultation and at one follow-up point. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted to determine the predictive value of the EORTC QLQ-C15-PAL functional/symptom scores for global QOL (question 15). Three hundred forty-nine patients completed the EORTC QLQ-C15-PAL at baseline. In the total patient sample, worse emotional functioning, pain, and appetite loss were the most significant predictive factors for worse QOL. In the subgroup of patients with bone metastases (n = 240), the domains mentioned above were also the most significant predictors, whereas in patients with brain metastases (n = 109), worse physical and emotional functioning most significantly predicted worse QOL. One-month follow-up in 267 patients revealed that the significant predictors changed somewhat over time. For example, in the total patient sample, physical functioning, fatigue, and appetite loss were significant predictors at the follow-up point. A sub-analysis of predictive factors affecting QOL by primary cancer (lung, breast, and prostate) was also conducted for the total patient sample. Deterioration of certain EORTC QLQ-C15-PAL functional/symptom scores significantly contributes to worse overall QOL. Special attention should be directed to managing factors most influential on overall QOL to ensure optimal management of advanced cancer patients.

MODIS Cloud Microphysics Product (MOD_PR06OD) Data Collection 6 Updates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wind, Gala; Platnick, Steven; King, Michael D.

2014-01-01

The MODIS Cloud Optical and Microphysical Product (MOD_PR060D) for Data Collection 6 has entered full scale production. Aqua reprocessing is almost completed and Terra reprocessing will begin shortly. Unlike previous collections, the CHIMAERA code base allows for simultaneous processing for multiple sensors and the operational CHIMAERA 6.0.76 stream is also available for VIIRS and SEVIRI sensors and for our E-MAS airborne platform.

Sensitivity of Glacier Mass Balance Estimates to the Selection of WRF Cloud Microphysics Parameterization in the Indus River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, E. S.; Rupper, S.; Steenburgh, W. J.; Strong, C.; Kochanski, A.

2017-12-01

Climate model outputs are often used as inputs to glacier energy and mass balance models, which are essential glaciological tools for testing glacier sensitivity, providing mass balance estimates in regions with little glaciological data, and providing a means to model future changes. Climate model outputs, however, are sensitive to the choice of physical parameterizations, such as those for cloud microphysics, land-surface schemes, surface layer options, etc. Furthermore, glacier mass balance (MB) estimates that use these climate model outputs as inputs are likely sensitive to the specific parameterization schemes, but this sensitivity has not been carefully assessed. Here we evaluate the sensitivity of glacier MB estimates across the Indus Basin to the selection of cloud microphysics parameterizations in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Cloud microphysics parameterizations differ in how they specify the size distributions of hydrometeors, the rate of graupel and snow production, their fall speed assumptions, the rates at which they convert from one hydrometeor type to the other, etc. While glacier MB estimates are likely sensitive to other parameterizations in WRF, our preliminary results suggest that glacier MB is highly sensitive to the timing, frequency, and amount of snowfall, which is influenced by the cloud microphysics parameterization. To this end, the Indus Basin is an ideal study site, as it has both westerly (winter) and monsoonal (summer) precipitation influences, is a data-sparse region (so models are critical), and still has lingering questions as to glacier importance for local and regional resources. WRF is run at a 4 km grid scale using two commonly used parameterizations: the Thompson scheme and the Goddard scheme. On average, these parameterizations result in minimal differences in annual precipitation. However, localized regions exhibit differences in precipitation of up to 3 m w.e. a-1. The different schemes also impact the

PREDICT: a diagnostic accuracy study of a tool for predicting mortality within one year: who should have an advance healthcare directive?

PubMed

Richardson, Philip; Greenslade, Jaimi; Shanmugathasan, Sulochana; Doucet, Katherine; Widdicombe, Neil; Chu, Kevin; Brown, Anthony

2015-01-01

CARING is a screening tool developed to identify patients who have a high likelihood of death in 1 year. This study sought to validate a modified CARING tool (termed PREDICT) using a population of patients presenting to the Emergency Department. In total, 1000 patients aged over 55 years who were admitted to hospital via the Emergency Department between January and June 2009 were eligible for inclusion in this study. Data on the six prognostic indicators comprising PREDICT were obtained retrospectively from patient records. One-year mortality data were obtained from the State Death Registry. Weights were applied to each PREDICT criterion, and its final score ranged from 0 to 44. Receiver operator characteristic analyses and diagnostic accuracy statistics were used to assess the accuracy of PREDICT in identifying 1-year mortality. The sample comprised 976 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 71 years (62-81 years) and a 1-year mortality of 23.4%. In total, 50% had ≥1 PREDICT criteria with a 1-year mortality of 40.4%. Receiver operator characteristic analysis gave an area under the curve of 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.89). Using a cut-off of 13 points, PREDICT had a 95.3% (95% confidence interval: 93.6-96.6) specificity and 53.9% (95% confidence interval: 47.5-60.3) sensitivity for predicting 1-year mortality. PREDICT was simpler than the CARING criteria and identified 158 patients per 1000 admitted who could benefit from advance care planning. PREDICT was successfully applied to the Australian healthcare system with findings similar to the original CARING study conducted in the United States. This tool could improve end-of-life care by identifying who should have advance care planning or an advance healthcare directive. © The Author(s) 2014.

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Case, Jonathan L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Medlin, Jeffrey; Wood, Lance

2014-01-01

Convection-allowing numerical weather simula- tions have often been shown to produce convective storms that have significant sensitivity to choices of model physical parameterizations. Among the most important of these sensitivities are those related to cloud microphysics, but planetary boundary layer parameterizations also have a significant impact on the evolution of the convection. Aspects of the simulated convection that display sensitivity to these physics schemes include updraft size and intensity, simulated radar reflectivity, timing and placement of storm initi- ation and decay, total storm rainfall, and other storm features derived from storm structure and hydrometeor fields, such as predicted lightning flash rates. In addition to the basic parameters listed above, the simulated storms may also exhibit sensitivity to im- posed initial conditions, such as the fields of soil temper- ature and moisture, vegetation cover and health, and sea and lake water surface temperatures. Some of these sensitivities may rival those of the basic physics sensi- tivities mentioned earlier. These sensitivities have the potential to disrupt the accuracy of short-term forecast simulations of convective storms, and thereby pose sig- nificant difficulties for weather forecasters. To make a systematic study of the quantitative impacts of each of these sensitivities, a matrix of simulations has been performed using all combinations of eight separate microphysics schemes, three boundary layer schemes, and two sets of initial conditions. The first version of initial conditions consists of the default data from large-scale operational model fields, while the second features specialized higher- resolution soil conditions, vegetation conditions and water surface temperatures derived from datasets created at NASA's Short-term Prediction and Operational Research Tran- sition (SPoRT) Center at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, AL. Simulations as

Cloud microphysics and aerosol indirect effects in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, U.; Stier, P.; Hoose, C.; Ferrachat, S.; Roeckner, E.; Zhang, J.

2007-03-01

The double-moment cloud microphysics scheme from ECHAM4 has been coupled to the size-resolved aerosol scheme ECHAM5-HAM. ECHAM5-HAM predicts the aerosol mass and number concentrations and the aerosol mixing state. This results in a much better agreement with observed vertical profiles of the black carbon and aerosol mass mixing ratios than with the previous version ECHAM4, where only the different aerosol mass mixing ratios were predicted. Also, the simulated liquid, ice and total water content and the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as a function of temperature in stratiform mixed-phase clouds between 0 and -35°C agree much better with aircraft observations in the ECHAM5 simulations. ECHAM5 performs better because more realistic aerosol concentrations are available for cloud droplet nucleation and because the Bergeron-Findeisen process is parameterized as being more efficient. The total anthropogenic aerosol effect includes the direct, semi-direct and indirect effects and is defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere net radiation between present-day and pre-industrial times. It amounts to -1.8 W m-2 in ECHAM5, when a relative humidity dependent cloud cover scheme and present-day aerosol emissions representative for the year 2000 are used. It is larger when either a statistical cloud cover scheme or a different aerosol emission inventory are employed.

The great Indian haze revisited: aerosol distribution effects on microphysical and optical properties of warm clouds over peninsular India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghanti, R.; Ghosh, S.

2010-03-01

The Indian subcontinent is undergoing a phase of rapid urbanisation. Inevitable fallout of this process is a concomitant increase in air pollution much of which can be attributed to the infamous great Indian haze phenomena. One observes that the aerosol size distributions vary considerably along the Bay of Bengal (BOB), Arabian Sea (AS) and the Indian Ocean (IO), although, the dynamical attributes are very similar, particularly over the BOB and the AS during this season. Unlike major European studies (e.g. Aerosol Characterization Experiment-2, Ghosh et al., 2005), there are no cloud microphysical modelling studies to complement these observational results for the Indian sub-continent. Ours is the first modelling study over this important region where a time-tested model (O'Dowd et al., 1999a; Ghosh et al., 2007; Rap et al., 2009) is used to obtain cloud microphysical and optical properties from observed aerosol size distributions. Un-activated aerosol particles and very small cloud droplets have to be treated specially to account for non-ideal effects-our model does this effectively yielding realistic estimate of cloud droplet number concentrations (Nc). Empirical relationships linking aerosol concentration to (Nc) yield a disproportionately higher Nc suggesting that such empirical formulations should be used with caution. Our modelling study reveals that the cloud's microphysical and optical properties are very similar along the AS and the BOB despite them having disparate dry aerosol spectral distributions. This is non-intuitive, as one would expect changes in microphysical development with widely different aerosol distributions. There is some increase in cloud droplet numbers with increased haze concentrations but much less than a simple proportion would indicate.

Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Microphysics Within Winter Storms Using Field Data and In Situ Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colle, Brian A.; Molthan, Andrew; Yu, Ruyi; Nesbitt, Steven

2014-01-01

Snow prediction within models is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33-km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Cold-season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment over southern Ontario, as well as a few years (12 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. The GCPex presentation will focus on verification using aircraft spirals through warm frontal snow band event on 18 February 2012. All the BMPs realistically simulated the structure of the band and the vertical distribution of snow/ice aloft, except the SBU-YLIN overpredicted slightly and Thompson (THOM) underpredicted somewhat. The Morrison (MORR) scheme produced the best slope size distribution for snow, while the Stony Brook (SBU) underpredicted and the THOM slightly overpredicted. Those schemes that have the slope intercept a function of temperature (SBU and WSM6) tended to perform better for that parameter than others, especially the fixed intercept in Goddard. Overall, the spread among BMPs was smaller than in other studies, likely because there was limited riming with the band. For the 15 cases at SBNY, which include moderate and heavy riming events, the non-spherical snow assumption (THOM and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic

An evaluation of WRF microphysics schemes for simulating the warm-type heavy rain over the Korean peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Hwan-Jin; Sohn, Byung-Ju

2018-01-01

The Korean peninsula is the region of distinctly showing the heavy rain associated with relatively low storm height and small ice water content in the upper part of cloud system (i.e., so-called warm-type heavy rainfall). The satellite observations for the warmtype rain over Korea led to a conjecture that the cloud microphysics parameterization suitable for the continental deep convection may not work well for the warm-type heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula. Therefore, there is a growing need to examine the performance of cloud microphysics schemes for simulating the warm-type heavy rain structures over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to evaluate the capabilities of eight microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model how warmtype heavy rain structures can be simulated, in reference to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity measurements. The results indicate that the WRF Double Moment 6-class (WDM6) scheme simulated best the vertical structure of warm-type heavy rain by virtue of a reasonable collisioncoalescence process between liquid droplets and the smallest amount of snow. Nonetheless the WDM6 scheme appears to have limitations that need to be improved upon for a realistic reflectivity structure, in terms of the reflectivity slope below the melting layer, discontinuity in reflectivity profiles around the melting layer, and overestimation of upper-level reflectivity due to high graupel content.

Retrievals of ice cloud microphysical properties of deep convective systems using radar measurements: Convective Cloud Microphysical Retrieval

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tian, Jingjing; Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike

This study presents new algorithms for retrieving ice cloud microphysical properties (ice water content (IWC) and median mass diameter (Dm)) for the stratiform and thick anvil regions of Deep Convective Systems (DCSs) using Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) reflectivity and recently developed empirical relationships from aircraft in situ measurements during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). A classic DCS case on 20 May 2011 is used to compare the retrieved IWC profiles with other retrieval and cloud-resolving model simulations. The mean values of each retrieved and simulated IWC fall within one standard derivation of the other two. The statistical results frommore » six selected cases during MC3E show that the aircraft in situ derived IWC and Dm are 0.47 ± 0.29 g m-3 and 2.02 ± 1.3 mm, while the mean values of retrievals have a positive bias of 0.16 g m-3 (34%) and a negative bias of 0.39 mm (19%). To validate the newly developed retrieval algorithms from this study, IWC and Dm are performed with other DCS cases during Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX) field campaign using composite gridded NEXRAD reflectivity and compared with in situ IWC and Dm from aircraft. A total of 64 1-min collocated aircraft and radar samples are available for comparisons, and the averages of radar retrieved and aircraft in situ measured IWCs are 1.22 g m-3 and 1.26 g m-3 with a correlation of 0.5, and their averaged Dm values are 2.15 and 1.80 mm. These comparisons have shown that the retrieval algorithms 45 developed during MC3E can retrieve similar ice cloud microphysical properties of DCS to aircraft in situ measurements during BAMEX with median errors of ~40% and ~25% for IWC and Dm retrievals, respectively. This is indicating our retrieval algorithms are suitable for other midlatitude continental DCS ice clouds, especially at stratiform rain and thick anvil regions. In addition, based on the averaged IWC and Dm values during

Idealized simulation of the Colorado hailstorm case: comparison of bulk and detailed microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geresdi, I.

One of the purposes of the Fourth Cloud Modeling Workshop was to compare different microphysical treatments. In this paper, the results of a widely used bulk treatment and five versions of a detailed microphysical model are presented. Sensitivity analysis was made to investigate the effect of bulk parametrization, ice initiation technique, CCN concentration and collision efficiency of rimed ice crystal-drop collision. The results show that: (i) The mixing ratios of different species of hydrometeors calculated by bulk and one of the detailed models show some similarity. However, the processes of hail/graupel formation are different in the bulk and the detailed models. (ii) Using different ice initiation in the detailed models' different processes became important in the hail and graupel formation. (iii) In the case of higher CCN concentration, the mixing ratio of liquid water, hail and graupel were more sensitive to the value of collision efficiency of rimed ice crystal-drop collision. (iv) The Bergeron-Findeisen process does not work in the updraft core of a convective cloud. The vapor content was always over water saturation; moreover, the supersaturation gradually increased after the appearance of precipitation ice particles.

The Impact of Aerosol Microphysical Representation in Models on the Direct Radiative Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridley, D. A.; Heald, C. L.

2017-12-01

Aerosol impacts the radiative balance of the atmosphere both directly and indirectly. There is considerable uncertainty remaining in the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE), hampering understanding of the present magnitude of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and how future changes in aerosol loading will influence climate. Computationally expensive explicit aerosol microphysics are usually reserved for modelling of the aerosol indirect radiative effects that depend upon aerosol particle number. However, the direct radiative effects of aerosol are also strongly dependent upon the aerosol size distribution, especially particles between 0.2µm - 2µm diameter. In this work, we use a consistent model framework and consistent emissions to explore the impact of prescribed size distributions (bulk scheme) relative to explicit microphysics (sectional scheme) on the aerosol radiative properties. We consider the difference in aerosol burden, water uptake, and extinction efficiency resulting from the two representations, highlighting when and where the bulk and sectional schemes diverge significantly in their estimates of the DRE. Finally, we evaluate the modelled size distributions using in-situ measurements over a range of regimes to provide constraints on both the accumulation and coarse aerosol sizes.

Cloud Microphysics Parameterization in a Shallow Cumulus Cloud Simulated by a Largrangian Cloud Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, D.; Noh, Y.; Hoffmann, F.; Raasch, S.

2017-12-01

Lagrangian cloud model (LCM) is a fundamentally new approach of cloud simulation, in which the flow field is simulated by large eddy simulation and droplets are treated as Lagrangian particles undergoing cloud microphysics. LCM enables us to investigate raindrop formation and examine the parameterization of cloud microphysics directly by tracking the history of individual Lagrangian droplets simulated by LCM. Analysis of the magnitude of raindrop formation and the background physical conditions at the moment at which every Lagrangian droplet grows from cloud droplets to raindrops in a shallow cumulus cloud reveals how and under which condition raindrops are formed. It also provides information how autoconversion and accretion appear and evolve within a cloud, and how they are affected by various factors such as cloud water mixing ratio, rain water mixing ratio, aerosol concentration, drop size distribution, and dissipation rate. Based on these results, the parameterizations of autoconversion and accretion, such as Kessler (1969), Tripoli and Cotton (1980), Beheng (1994), and Kharioutdonov and Kogan (2000), are examined, and the modifications to improve the parameterizations are proposed.

A General Uncertainty Quantification Methodology for Cloud Microphysical Property Retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Q.; Xie, S.; Chen, X.; Zhao, C.

2014-12-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program provides long-term (~20 years) ground-based cloud remote sensing observations. However, there are large uncertainties in the retrieval products of cloud microphysical properties based on the active and/or passive remote-sensing measurements. To address this uncertainty issue, a DOE Atmospheric System Research scientific focus study, Quantification of Uncertainties in Cloud Retrievals (QUICR), has been formed. In addition to an overview of recent progress of QUICR, we will demonstrate the capacity of an observation-based general uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology via the ARM Climate Research Facility baseline cloud microphysical properties (MICROBASE) product. This UQ method utilizes the Karhunen-Loéve expansion (KLE) and Central Limit Theorems (CLT) to quantify the retrieval uncertainties from observations and algorithm parameters. The input perturbations are imposed on major modes to take into account the cross correlations between input data, which greatly reduces the dimension of random variables (up to a factor of 50) and quantifies vertically resolved full probability distribution functions of retrieved quantities. Moreover, this KLE/CLT approach has the capability of attributing the uncertainties in the retrieval output to individual uncertainty source and thus sheds light on improving the retrieval algorithm and observations. We will present the results of a case study for the ice water content at the Southern Great Plains during an intensive observing period on March 9, 2000. This work is performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Scaling analysis of cloud and rain water in marine stratocumulus and implications for scale-aware microphysical parameterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witte, M.; Morrison, H.; Jensen, J. B.; Bansemer, A.; Gettelman, A.

2017-12-01

The spatial covariance of cloud and rain water (or in simpler terms, small and large drops, respectively) is an important quantity for accurate prediction of the accretion rate in bulk microphysical parameterizations that account for subgrid variability using assumed probability density functions (pdfs). Past diagnoses of this covariance from remote sensing, in situ measurements and large eddy simulation output have implicitly assumed that the magnitude of the covariance is insensitive to grain size (i.e. horizontal resolution) and averaging length, but this is not the case because both cloud and rain water exhibit scale invariance across a wide range of scales - from tens of centimeters to tens of kilometers in the case of cloud water, a range that we will show is primarily limited by instrumentation and sampling issues. Since the individual variances systematically vary as a function of spatial scale, it should be expected that the covariance follows a similar relationship. In this study, we quantify the scaling properties of cloud and rain water content and their covariability from high frequency in situ aircraft measurements of marine stratocumulus taken over the southeastern Pacific Ocean aboard the NSF/NCAR C-130 during the VOCALS-REx field experiment of October-November 2008. First we confirm that cloud and rain water scale in distinct manners, indicating that there is a statistically and potentially physically significant difference in the spatial structure of the two fields. Next, we demonstrate that the covariance is a strong function of spatial scale, which implies important caveats regarding the ability of limited-area models with domains smaller than a few tens of kilometers across to accurately reproduce the spatial organization of precipitation. Finally, we present preliminary work on the development of a scale-aware parameterization of cloud-rain water subgrid covariability based in multifractal analysis intended for application in large-scale model

Data driven analysis of rain events: feature extraction, clustering, microphysical /macro physical relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djallel Dilmi, Mohamed; Mallet, Cécile; Barthes, Laurent; Chazottes, Aymeric

2017-04-01

The study of rain time series records is mainly carried out using rainfall rate or rain accumulation parameters estimated on a fixed integration time (typically 1 min, 1 hour or 1 day). In this study we used the concept of rain event. In fact, the discrete and intermittent natures of rain processes make the definition of some features inadequate when defined on a fixed duration. Long integration times (hour, day) lead to mix rainy and clear air periods in the same sample. Small integration time (seconds, minutes) will lead to noisy data with a great sensibility to detector characteristics. The analysis on the whole rain event instead of individual short duration samples of a fixed duration allows to clarify relationships between features, in particular between macro physical and microphysical ones. This approach allows suppressing the intra-event variability partly due to measurement uncertainties and allows focusing on physical processes. An algorithm based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Self Organising Maps (SOM) is developed to obtain a parsimonious characterisation of rain events using a minimal set of variables. The use of self-organizing map (SOM) is justified by the fact that it allows to map a high dimensional data space in a two-dimensional space while preserving as much as possible the initial space topology in an unsupervised way. The obtained SOM allows providing the dependencies between variables and consequently removing redundant variables leading to a minimal subset of only five features (the event duration, the rain rate peak, the rain event depth, the event rain rate standard deviation and the absolute rain rate variation of order 0.5). To confirm relevance of the five selected features the corresponding SOM is analyzed. This analysis shows clearly the existence of relationships between features. It also shows the independence of the inter-event time (IETp) feature or the weak dependence of the Dry percentage in event (Dd%e) feature. This confirms

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

One of the most promising methods to test the representation of cloud processes used in climate models is to use observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes, and they can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems (size about 2-200 km). The CRMs also allow explicit interaction between out-going longwave (cooling) and in-coming solar (heating) radiation with clouds. Observations can provide the initial conditions and validation for CRM results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model, a CRM, has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades. The GCE model has been used to understand the following: 1) water and energy cycles and their roles in the tropical climate system; 2) the vertical redistribution of ozone and trace constituents by individual clouds and well organized convective systems over various spatial scales; 3) the relationship between the vertical distribution of latent heating (phase change of water) and the large-scale (pre-storm) environment; 4) the validity of assumptions used in the representation of cloud processes in climate and global circulation models; and 5) the representation of cloud microphysical processes and their interaction with radiative forcing over tropical and midlatitude regions. Four-dimensional cloud and latent heating fields simulated from the GCE model have been provided to the TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) to develop and improve algorithms for retrieving rainfall and latent heating rates for TRMM and the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS). More than 90 referred papers using the GCE model have been published in the last two decades. Also, more than 10 national and international universities are currently using the GCE model for research and teaching. In this talk, five specific major GCE improvements: (1

Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serreze, Mark C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.

2016-10-01

As assessed over the period 1979-2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ˜ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

One-Dimensional Cloud Microphysical Models for Central Europe and Their Optical Properties.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-10-01

reverse ft N# neeM id fdlf by block number) One-dimensional microphysical models for six different cloud types are proposed. These models were...and table 2 was extracted from Koenig and Schutz"’ to show the gross features of these clouds. 2A. Kh. Khrgian, Editor, 1963, Cloud Physics, Israel...Acid, HC, Petroleum Oil , and Sulfuric Acid Military Smokes," ASL-TR-0052, April 1980. 124. Hinds, B. D., and J. B. Gillespie, "Optical

Microphysical modeling of Titan's detached haze layer in a 3D GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, Erik J. L.; Toon, Owen B.; West, Robert A.; Friedson, A. James

2015-07-01

We use a 3D GCM with coupled aerosol microphysics to investigate the formation and seasonal cycle of the detached haze layer in Titan's upper atmosphere. The base of the detached haze layer is defined by a local minimum in the vertical extinction profile. The detached haze is seen at all latitudes including the south pole as seen in Cassini images from 2005-2012. The layer merges into the winter polar haze at high latitudes where the Hadley circulation carries the particles downward. The hemisphere in which the haze merges with the polar haze varies with season. We find that the base of the detached haze layer occurs where there is a near balance between vertical winds and particle fall velocities. Generally the vertical variation of particle concentration in the detached haze region is simply controlled by sedimentation, so the concentration and the extinction vary roughly in proportion to air density. This variation explains why the upper part of the main haze layer, and the bulk of the detached haze layer follow exponential profiles. However, the shape of the profile is modified in regions where the vertical wind velocity is comparable to the particle fall velocity. Our simulations closely match the period when the base of the detached layer in the tropics is observed to begin its seasonal drop in altitude, and the total range of the altitude drop. However, the simulations have the base of the detached layer about 100 km lower than observed, and the time for the base to descend is slower in the simulations than observed. These differences may point to the model having somewhat lower vertical winds than occur on Titan, or somewhat too large of particle sizes, or some combination of both. Our model is consistent with a dynamical origin for the detached haze rather than a chemical or microphysical one. This balance between the vertical wind and particle fall velocities occurs throughout the summer hemisphere and tropics. The particle concentration gradients that

Representing Precipitation Ice Species With Both Spherical and Nonspherical Particles for Radiative Transfer Modeling of Microphysics-Consistent Cloud Microwave Scattering Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sieron, Scott B.; Zhang, Fuqing; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Zhang, Lily N.; Lu, Yinghui

2018-04-01

Cloud microwave scattering properties for the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) have previously been created to be consistent with the particle size distributions specified by the WSM6 single-moment microphysics scheme. Here substitution of soft sphere scattering properties with nonspherical particle scattering properties is explored in studies of Hurricane Karl (2010). A nonsphere replaces a sphere of the same maximum dimension, and the number of particles of a given size is scaled by the ratio of the sphere to nonsphere mass to keep the total mass of a given particle size unchanged. The replacement of homogeneous soft sphere snow particles is necessary to resolve a highly evident issue in CRTM simulations: precipitation-affected brightness temperatures are generally warmer at 183 GHz than at 91.7 GHz, whereas the reverse is seen in observations. Using sector snowflakes resolve this issue better than using columns/plates, bullet rosettes, or dendrites. With sector snowflakes, both of these high frequencies have low simulated brightness temperatures compared to observations, providing a clear and consistent suggestion that snow is being overproduced in the examined simulation using WSM6 microphysics. Graupel causes cold biases at lower frequencies which can be reduced by either reducing graupel water contents or replacing the microphysics-consistent spherical graupel particles with sector snowflakes. However, soft spheres are likely the better physical representation of graupel particles. The hypotheses that snow and graupel are overproduced in simulations using WSM6 microphysics shall be examined more systematically in future studies through additional cases and ensemble data assimilation of all-sky microwave radiance observations.

An Evaluation of WRF Microphysics Schemes for Simulating the Warm-Type Heavy Rain over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Hwan-Jin; Sohn, Byung-Ju

2018-05-01

The Korean peninsula is the region of distinctly showing the heavy rain associated with relatively low storm height and small ice water content in the upper part of cloud system (i.e., so-called warm-type heavy rainfall). The satellite observations for the warm-type rain over Korea led to a conjecture that the cloud microphysics parameterization suitable for the continental deep convection may not work well for the warm-type heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula. Therefore, there is a growing need to examine the performance of cloud microphysics schemes for simulating the warm-type heavy rain structures over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to evaluate the capabilities of eight microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model how warm-type heavy rain structures can be simulated, in reference to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity measurements. The results indicate that the WRF Double Moment 6-class (WDM6) scheme simulated best the vertical structure of warm-type heavy rain by virtue of a reasonable collision-coalescence process between liquid droplets and the smallest amount of snow. Nonetheless the WDM6 scheme appears to have limitations that need to be improved upon for a realistic reflectivity structure, in terms of the reflectivity slope below the melting layer, discontinuity in reflectivity profiles around the melting layer, and overestimation of upper-level reflectivity due to high graupel content.

Quality Control and Analysis of Microphysical Data Collected in TRMM Aircraft Validation Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heymsfield, Andrew J.

2004-01-01

This report summarizes our efforts on the funded project 'Quality Control and Analysis of Microphysical Data Collected in TRMM Airborne Validation Experiments', NASA NAG5-9663, Andrew Heymsfield, P. I. We begin this report by summarizing our activities in FY2000-FY2004. We then present some highlights of our work. The last part of the report lists the publications that have resulted from our funding through this grant.

Desire for predictive testing for Alzheimer's disease and impact on advance care planning: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Sheffrin, Meera; Stijacic Cenzer, Irena; Steinman, Michael A

2016-12-13

It is unknown whether older adults in the United States would be willing to take a test predictive of future Alzheimer's disease, or whether testing would change behavior. Using a nationally representative sample, we explored who would take a free and definitive test predictive of Alzheimer's disease, and examined how using such a test may impact advance care planning. A cross-sectional study within the 2012 Health and Retirement Study of adults aged 65 years or older asked questions about a test predictive of Alzheimer's disease (N = 874). Subjects were asked whether they would want to take a hypothetical free and definitive test predictive of future Alzheimer's disease. Then, imagining they knew they would develop Alzheimer's disease, subjects rated the chance of completing advance care planning activities from 0 to 100. We classified a score > 50 as being likely to complete that activity. We evaluated characteristics associated with willingness to take a test for Alzheimer's disease, and how such a test would impact completing an advance directive and discussing health plans with loved ones. Overall, 75% (N = 648) of the sample would take a free and definitive test predictive of Alzheimer's disease. Older adults willing to take the test had similar race and educational levels to those who would not, but were more likely to be ≤75 years old (odds ratio 0.71 (95% CI 0.53-0.94)). Imagining they knew they would develop Alzheimer's, 81% would be likely to complete an advance directive, although only 15% had done so already. In this nationally representative sample, 75% of older adults would take a free and definitive test predictive of Alzheimer's disease. Many participants expressed intent to increase activities of advance care planning with this knowledge. This confirms high public interest in predictive testing for Alzheimer's disease and suggests this may be an opportunity to engage patients in advance care planning discussions.

Predicted changes in advanced turboprop noise with shaft angle of attack

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padula, S. L.; Block, P. J. W.

1984-01-01

Advanced turboprop blade designs and new propeller installation schemes motivated an effort to include unsteady loading effects in existing propeller noise prediction computer programs. The present work validates the prediction capability while studing the effects of shaft inclination on the radiated sound field. Classical methods of propeller performance analysis supply the time-dependent blade loading needed to calculate noise. Polar plots of the sound pressure level (SPL) of the first four harmonics and overall SPL are indicative of the change in directivity pattern as a function of propeller angle of attack. Noise predictions are compared with newly available wind tunnel data and the accuracy and applicability of the prediction method are discussed. It is concluded that unsteady blade loading caused by inclining the propeller with respect to the flow changes the directionality and the intensity of the radiated noise. These changes are well modeled by the present quasi-steady prediction method.

Biogenic influence on cloud microphysics in the 'clean' oceanic atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lana, A.; Simó, R.; Vallina, S. M.; Jurado, E.; Dachs, J.

2009-12-01

A 20 years old hypothesis postulates a feedback relationship between marine biota and climate through the emission of dimethylsulfide (DMS) as the principal natural source of Sulfate Secondary Aerosols (S-DMS) that are very efficient as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). In recent years, the biological influence on cloud microphysics have been expanded to other potential biogenic cloud precursors: (i) volatile organic compounds produced by plankton and emitted to the atmosphere to form Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA); (ii) biological particles and biogenic polymers, lifted with the seaspray by wind friction and bubble-bursting processes, that act as Primary Organic Aerosols (POA). Besides these biogenic aerosols, also seaspray-associated Sea Salt (SS) emissions, which are the dominant contribution to aerosol mass in the remote mixed boundary layer, also contribute to cloud condensation. All these aerosols affect cloud microphysics by providing new CCN, reducing the size of cloud droplets, and increasing cloud albedo. We have compared the seasonalities of the parameterized source functions of these natural cloud precursors with that of the satellite-derived cloud droplet effective radius (CLEFRA) over large regions of the ocean. Regions where big loads of continental aerosols (including anthropogenic -industrial, urban, and biomass burning) dominate during a significant part of the year were identified by use of remote sensing aerosol optical properties and excluded from our analysis. Our results show that the seasonality of cloud droplet effective radius matches those of S-DMS and SOA in the clean marine atmosphere, whereas SS and chlorophyll-associated POA on their own do not seem to play a major role in driving cloud droplet size.

Convective and microphysics parameterization impact on simulating heavy rainfall in Semarang (case study on February 12th, 2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faridatussafura, Nurzaka; Wandala, Agie

2018-05-01

The meteorological model WRF-ARW version 3.8.1 is used for simulating the heavy rainfall in Semarang that occurred on February 12th, 2015. Two different convective schemes and two different microphysics scheme in a nested configuration were chosen. The sensitivity of those schemes in capturing the extreme weather event has been tested. GFS data were used for the initial and boundary condition. Verification on the twenty-four hours accumulated rainfall using GSMaPsatellite data shows that Kain-Fritsch convective scheme and Lin microphysics scheme is the best combination scheme among the others. The combination also gives the highest success ratio value in placing high intensity rainfall area. Based on the ROC diagram, KF-Lin shows the best performance in detecting high intensity rainfall. However, the combination still has high bias value.

Cloud microphysics and aerosol indirect effects in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, U.; Stier, P.; Hoose, C.; Ferrachat, S.; Kloster, S.; Roeckner, E.; Zhang, J.

2007-07-01

The double-moment cloud microphysics scheme from ECHAM4 that predicts both the mass mixing ratios and number concentrations of cloud droplets and ice crystals has been coupled to the size-resolved aerosol scheme ECHAM5-HAM. ECHAM5-HAM predicts the aerosol mass, number concentrations and mixing state. The simulated liquid, ice and total water content and the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as a function of temperature in stratiform mixed-phase clouds between 0 and -35° C agree much better with aircraft observations in the ECHAM5 simulations. ECHAM5 performs better because more realistic aerosol concentrations are available for cloud droplet nucleation and because the Bergeron-Findeisen process is parameterized as being more efficient. The total anthropogenic aerosol effect includes the direct, semi-direct and indirect effects and is defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere net radiation between present-day and pre-industrial times. It amounts to -1.9 W m-2 in ECHAM5, when a relative humidity dependent cloud cover scheme and aerosol emissions representative for the years 1750 and 2000 from the AeroCom emission inventory are used. The contribution of the cloud albedo effect amounts to -0.7 W m-2. The total anthropogenic aerosol effect is larger when either a statistical cloud cover scheme or a different aerosol emission inventory are employed because the cloud lifetime effect increases.

Microphysically Derived Expressions for Rate-and-State Friction Parameters, a, b, and Dc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jianye; Niemeijer, A. R.; Spiers, Christopher J.

2017-12-01

Rate-and-state friction (RSF) laws are extensively applied in fault mechanics but have a largely empirical basis reflecting only limited understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms. We recently proposed a microphysical model describing the frictional behavior of a granular fault gouge undergoing deformation in terms of granular flow accompanied by thermally activated creep and intergranular sliding at grain contacts. Numerical solutions reproduced typical experimental results well. Here we extend our model to obtain physically meaningful, analytical expressions for the steady state frictional strength and standard RSF parameters, a, b, and Dc. The frictional strength contains two components, namely, grain boundary friction and friction due to intergranular dilatation. The expressions obtained for a and b linearly reflect the rate dependence of these two terms. Dc scales with slip band thickness and varies only slightly with velocity. The values of a, b, and Dc predicted show quantitative agreement with previous experimental results, and inserting their values into classical RSF laws gives simulated friction behavior that is consistent with the predictions of our numerically implemented model for small departures from steady state. For large velocity steps, the model produces mixed RSF behavior that falls between the Slowness and Slip laws, for example, with an intermediate equivalent slip(-weakening) distance d0. Our model possesses the interesting property not only that a and b are velocity dependent but also that Dc and d0 scale differently from classical RSF models, potentially explaining behaviour seen in many hydrothermal friction experiments and having substantial implications for natural fault friction.

Microphysical parameters of cirrus clouds using lidar at a tropical station, Gadanki, Tirupati (13.5° N, 79.2°E), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satyanarayana, M.; Radhakrishnan, S.-R.; Krishnakumar, V.; Mahadevan Pillai, V. P.; Raghunath, K.

2008-12-01

Cirrus clouds have been identified as one of the most uncertain component in the atmospheric research. It is known that cirrus clouds modulate the earth's climate through direct and indirect modification of radiation. The role of cirrus clouds depends mainly on their microphysical properties. To understand cirrus clouds better, we must observe and characterize their properties. In-situ observation of such clouds is a challenging experiment, as the clouds are located at high altitudes. Active remote sensing method based on lidar can detect high and thin cirrus clouds with good spatial and temporal resolution. We present the result obtained on the microphysical properties of the cirrus clouds at two Tropical stations namely Gadhanki, Tirupati (13.50 N, 79.20 E), India and Trivandrum (13.50 N, 770 E) Kerala, India from the ground based pulsed Nd: YAG lidar systems installed at the stations. A variant of the widely used Klett's lidar inversion method with range dependent scattering ratio is used for the present study for the retrieval of aerosol extinction and microphysical parameters of cirrus cloud.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions and Cloud Microphysical Properties in the Asir Region of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucera, P. A.; Axisa, D.; Burger, R. P.; Li, R.; Collins, D. R.; Freney, E. J.; Buseck, P. R.

2009-12-01

In recent advertent and inadvertent weather modification studies, a considerable effort has been made to understand the impact of varying aerosol properties and concentration on cloud properties. Significant uncertainties exist with aerosol-cloud interactions for which complex microphysical processes link the aerosol and cloud properties. Under almost all environmental conditions, increased aerosol concentrations within polluted air masses will enhance cloud droplet concentration relative to that in unperturbed regions. The interaction between dust particles and clouds are significant, yet the conditions in which dust particles become cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are uncertain. In order to quantify this aerosol effect on clouds and precipitation, a field campaign was launched in the Asir region, located adjacent to the Red Sea in the southwest region of Saudi Arabia. Ground measurements of aerosol size distributions, hygroscopic growth factors, CCN concentrations as well as aircraft measurements of cloud hydrometeor size distributions were observed in the Asir region in August 2009. The presentation will include a summary of the analysis and results with a focus on aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud microphysical properties observed during the convective season in the Asir region.

A comparison study of convective and microphysical parameterization schemes associated with lightning occurrence in southeastern Brazil using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zepka, G. D.; Pinto, O.

2010-12-01

The intent of this study is to identify the combination of convective and microphysical WRF parameterizations that better adjusts to lightning occurrence over southeastern Brazil. Twelve thunderstorm days were simulated with WRF model using three different convective parameterizations (Kain-Fritsch, Betts-Miller-Janjic and Grell-Devenyi ensemble) and two different microphysical schemes (Purdue-Lin and WSM6). In order to test the combinations of parameterizations at the same time of lightning occurrence, a comparison was made between the WRF grid point values of surface-based Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Lifted Index (LI), K-Index (KI) and equivalent potential temperature (theta-e), and the lightning locations nearby those grid points. Histograms were built up to show the ratio of the occurrence of different values of these variables for WRF grid points associated with lightning to all WRF grid points. The first conclusion from this analysis was that the choice of microphysics did not change appreciably the results as much as different convective schemes. The Betts-Miller-Janjic parameterization has generally worst skill to relate higher magnitudes for all four variables to lightning occurrence. The differences between the Kain-Fritsch and Grell-Devenyi ensemble schemes were not large. This fact can be attributed to the similar main assumptions used by these schemes that consider entrainment/detrainment processes along the cloud boundaries. After that, we examined three case studies using the combinations of convective and microphysical options without the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme. Differently from the traditional verification procedures, fields of surface-based CAPE from WRF 10 km domain were compared to the Eta model, satellite images and lightning data. In general the more reliable convective scheme was Kain-Fritsch since it provided more consistent distribution of the CAPE fields with respect to satellite images and lightning data.

Comparison between two lidar methods to retrieve microphysical properties of liquid-water clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez, Cristofer; Ansmann, Albert; Donovan, David; Engelmann, Ronny; Schmidt, Jörg; Wandinger, Ulla

2018-04-01

Since 2010, the Raman dual-FOV lidar system permits the retrieval of microphysical properties of liquid-water clouds during nighttime. A new robust lidar depolarization approach was recently introduced, which permits the retrieval of these properties as well, with high temporal resolution and during daytime. To implement this approach, the lidar system was upgraded, by adding a three channel depolarization receiver. The first preliminary retrieval results and a comparison between both methods is presented.

A Monte-Carlo Analysis of Organic Aerosol Volatility with Aerosol Microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, C. Y.; Tsigaridis, K.; Bauer, S. E.

2016-12-01

A newly developed box model scheme, MATRIX-VBS, includes the volatility-basis set (VBS) framework in an aerosol microphysical scheme MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state), which resolves aerosol mass and number concentrations and aerosol mixing state. The new scheme advanced the representation of organic aerosols in Earth system models by improving the traditional and simplistic treatment of organic aerosols as non-volatile and with a fixed size distribution. Further development includes adding the condensation of organics on coarse mode aerosols - dust and sea salt, thus making all organics in the system semi-volatile. To test and simplify the model, a Monte-Carlo analysis is performed to pin point which processes affect organics the most under which chemical and meteorological conditions. Since the model's parameterizations have the ability to capture a very wide range of conditions, from very clean to very polluted and for a wide range of meteorological conditions, all possible scenarios on Earth across the whole parameter space, including temperature, location, emissions and oxidant levels, are examined. The Monte-Carlo simulations provide quantitative information on the sensitivity of the newly developed model and help us understand how organics are affecting the size distribution, mixing state and volatility distribution at varying levels of meteorological conditions and pollution levels. In addition, these simulations give information on which parameters play a critical role in the aerosol distribution and evolution in the atmosphere and which do not, that will facilitate the simplification of the box model, an important step in its implementation in the global model.

High resolution simulations of aerosol microphysics in a global and regionally nested chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, P. J.; Marks, M.

2015-12-01

The aerosol indirect effect is the largest source of forcing uncertainty in current climate models. This effect arises from the influence of aerosols on the reflective properties and lifetimes of clouds, and its magnitude depends on how many particles can serve as cloud droplet formation sites. Assessing levels of this subset of particles (cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN) requires knowledge of aerosol levels and their global distribution, size distributions, and composition. A key tool necessary to advance our understanding of CCN is the use of global aerosol microphysical models, which simulate the processes that control aerosol size distributions: nucleation, condensation/evaporation, and coagulation. Previous studies have found important differences in CO (Chen, D. et al., 2009) and ozone (Jang, J., 1995) modeled at different spatial resolutions, and it is reasonable to believe that short-lived, spatially-variable aerosol species will be similarly - or more - susceptible to model resolution effects. The goal of this study is to determine how CCN levels and spatial distributions change as simulations are run at higher spatial resolution - specifically, to evaluate how sensitive the model is to grid size, and how this affects comparisons against observations. Higher resolution simulations are necessary supports for model/measurement synergy. Simulations were performed using the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem (v9-02). The years 2008 and 2009 were simulated at 4ox5o and 2ox2.5o globally and at 0.5ox0.667o over Europe and North America. Results were evaluated against surface-based particle size distribution measurements from the European Supersites for Atmospheric Aerosol Research project. The fine-resolution model simulates more spatial and temporal variability in ultrafine levels, and better resolves topography. Results suggest that the coarse model predicts systematically lower ultrafine levels than does the fine-resolution model. Significant

Evaluating Cloud Initialization in a Convection-permit NWP Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jia; Chen, Baode

2015-04-01

In general, to avoid "double counting precipitation" problem, in convection permit NWP models, it was a common practice to turn off convective parameterization. However, if there were not any cloud information in the initial conditions, the occurrence of precipitation could be delayed due to spin-up of cloud field or microphysical variables. In this study, we utilized the complex cloud analysis package from the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) to adjust the initial states of the model on water substance, such as cloud water, cloud ice, rain water, et al., that is, to initialize the microphysical variables (i.e., hydrometers), mainly based on radar reflectivity observations. Using the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model, numerical experiments with/without cloud initialization and convective parameterization were carried out at grey-zone resolutions (i.e. 1, 3, and 9 km). The results from the experiments without convective parameterization indicate that model ignition with radar reflectivity can significantly reduce spin-up time and accurately simulate precipitation at the initial time. In addition, it helps to improve location and intensity of predicted precipitation. With grey-zone resolutions (i.e. 1, 3, and 9 km), using the cumulus convective parameterization scheme (without radar data) cannot produce realistic precipitation at the early time. The issues related to microphysical parametrization associated with cloud initialization were also discussed.

Microphysical characteristics of squall-line stratiform precipitation and transition zones inferred using an ice particle property-evolving model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, A. A.; Harrington, J. Y.; Morrison, H.

2017-12-01

A quasi-idealized 3D squall line (based on a June 2007 Oklahoma case) is simulated using a novel bulk microphysics scheme called the Ice-Spheroids Habit Model with Aspect-ratio Evolution (ISHMAEL). In ISHMAEL, the evolution of ice particle properties, such as mass, shape, maximum diameter, density, and fall speed, are tracked as these properties evolve from vapor growth, sublimation, riming, and melting. Thus, ice properties evolve from various microphysical processes without needing separate unrimed and rimed ice categories. Simulation results show that ISHMAEL produces both a squall-line transition zone and an enhanced stratiform precipitation region. The ice particle properties produced in this simulation are analyzed and compared to observations to determine the characteristics of ice that lead to the development of these squall-line features. It is shown that rimed particles advected rearward from the convective region produce the enhanced stratiform precipitation region. The development of the transition zone results from hydrometer sorting: the evolution of ice particle properties in the convective region produces specific fall speeds that favor significant ice advecting rearward of the transition zone before reaching the melting level, causing a local minimum in precipitation rate and reflectivity there. Microphysical sensitivity studies, for example turning rime splintering off, that lead to changes in ice particle properties reveal that the fall speed of ice particles largely determines both the location of the enhanced stratiform precipitation region and whether or not a transition zone forms.

Numerical Simulations of TRMM LBA, TOGA, COARE, GATE, ARM and PRESTORM Convective Systems: Sensitivity tests on Microphysical Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Lang, S.; Ferrier, B.; Simpson, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was utilized to examine the behavior and response of simulated deep tropical cloud systems that occurred over the west Pacific warm pool region, the Atlantic ocean and the central United States. The periods chosen for simulation were convectively active periods during TOGA-COARE (February 22 1993, December 11-17, 1992; December 19-28, February 9-13, 1993), GATE (September 4, 1974), LBA (January 26 and February 23, 1998), ARM (1997 IOP) and PRESTORM (June 11, 1985). We will examine differences in the microphysics for both warm rain and ice processes (evaporation /sublimation and condensation/ deposition), Q1 (Temperature), Q2 (Water vapor) and Q3 (momentum both U and V) budgets for these three convective events from different large-scale environments. The contribution of stratiform precipitation and its relationship to the vertical shear of the large-scale horizontal wind will also be examined. New improvements to the GCE model (i.e., microphysics: 4ICE two moments and 3ICE one moment; advection schemes) as well as their sensitivity to the model results will be discussed. Preliminary results indicated that various microphysical schemes could have a major impact on stratiform formation as well as the size of convective systems. However, they do not change the major characteristics of the convective systems, such as: arc shape, strong rotational circulation on both ends of system, heavy precipitation along the leading edge of systems.

Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

2014-01-01

This paper presents recent thermal model results of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG). The three-dimensional (3D) ASRG thermal power model was built using the Thermal Desktop(trademark) thermal analyzer. The model was correlated with ASRG engineering unit test data and ASRG flight unit predictions from Lockheed Martin's (LM's) I-deas(trademark) TMG thermal model. The auxiliary cooling system (ACS) of the ASRG is also included in the ASRG thermal model. The ACS is designed to remove waste heat from the ASRG so that it can be used to heat spacecraft components. The performance of the ACS is reported under nominal conditions and during a Venus flyby scenario. The results for the nominal case are validated with data from Lockheed Martin. Transient thermal analysis results of ASRG for a Venus flyby with a representative trajectory are also presented. In addition, model results of an ASRG mounted on a Cassini-like spacecraft with a sunshade are presented to show a way to mitigate the high temperatures of a Venus flyby. It was predicted that the sunshade can lower the temperature of the ASRG alternator by 20 C for the representative Venus flyby trajectory. The 3D model also was modified to predict generator performance after a single Advanced Stirling Convertor failure. The geometry of the Microtherm HT insulation block on the outboard side was modified to match deformation and shrinkage observed during testing of a prototypic ASRG test fixture by LM. Test conditions and test data were used to correlate the model by adjusting the thermal conductivity of the deformed insulation to match the post-heat-dump steady state temperatures. Results for these conditions showed that the performance of the still-functioning inboard ACS was unaffected.

A new approach to modeling aerosol effects on East Asian climate: Parametric uncertainties associated with emissions, cloud microphysics, and their interactions: AEROSOL EFFECTS ON EAST ASIAN CLIMATE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Huiping; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun

2015-09-09

In this study, we adopt a parametric sensitivity analysis framework that integrates the quasi-Monte Carlo parameter sampling approach and a surrogate model to examine aerosol effects on the East Asian Monsoon climate simulated in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5). A total number of 256 CAM5 simulations are conducted to quantify the model responses to the uncertain parameters associated with cloud microphysics parameterizations and aerosol (e.g., sulfate, black carbon (BC), and dust) emission factors and their interactions. Results show that the interaction terms among parameters are important for quantifying the sensitivity of fields of interest, especially precipitation, to the parameters. Themore » relative importance of cloud-microphysics parameters and emission factors (strength) depends on evaluation metrics or the model fields we focused on, and the presence of uncertainty in cloud microphysics imposes an additional challenge in quantifying the impact of aerosols on cloud and climate. Due to their different optical and microphysical properties and spatial distributions, sulfate, BC, and dust aerosols have very different impacts on East Asian Monsoon through aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. The climatic effects of aerosol do not always have a monotonic response to the change of emission factors. The spatial patterns of both sign and magnitude of aerosol-induced changes in radiative fluxes, cloud, and precipitation could be different, depending on the aerosol types, when parameters are sampled in different ranges of values. We also identify the different cloud microphysical parameters that show the most significant impact on climatic effect induced by sulfate, BC and dust, respectively, in East Asia.« less

The Impact of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulation of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Case, Jonathan L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Wood, Lance

2014-01-01

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U. S. Deep South Summer Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, E. W., Jr.; Case, J. L.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Srikishen, J.; Medlin, J. M.; Wood, L.

2014-01-01

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics parameterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT Center to select NOAA/NWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boundary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage of lightning activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the

McSnow: A Monte-Carlo Particle Model for Riming and Aggregation of Ice Particles in a Multidimensional Microphysical Phase Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brdar, S.; Seifert, A.

2018-01-01

We present a novel Monte-Carlo ice microphysics model, McSnow, to simulate the evolution of ice particles due to deposition, aggregation, riming, and sedimentation. The model is an application and extension of the super-droplet method of Shima et al. (2009) to the more complex problem of rimed ice particles and aggregates. For each individual super-particle, the ice mass, rime mass, rime volume, and the number of monomers are predicted establishing a four-dimensional particle-size distribution. The sensitivity of the model to various assumptions is discussed based on box model and one-dimensional simulations. We show that the Monte-Carlo method provides a feasible approach to tackle this high-dimensional problem. The largest uncertainty seems to be related to the treatment of the riming processes. This calls for additional field and laboratory measurements of partially rimed snowflakes.

Simulation of particle size distributions in Polar Mesospheric Clouds from Microphysical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, G. E.; Merkel, A.; Bardeen, C.; Rusch, D. W.; Lumpe, J. D.

2009-12-01

The size distribution of ice particles is perhaps the most important observable aspect of microphysical processes in Polar Mesospheric Cloud (PMC) formation and evolution. A conventional technique to derive such information is from optical observation of scattering, either passive solar scattering from photometric or spectrometric techniques, or active backscattering by lidar. We present simulated size distributions from two state-of-the-art models using CARMA sectional microphysics: WACCM/CARMA, in which CARMA is interactively coupled with WACCM3 (Bardeen et al, 2009), and stand-alone CARMA forced by WACCM3 meteorology (Merkel et al, this meeting). Both models provide well-resolved size distributions of ice particles as a function of height, location and time for realistic high-latitude summertime conditions. In this paper we present calculations of the UV scattered brightness at multiple scattering angles as viewed by the AIM Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) satellite experiment. These simulations are then considered discretely-sampled “data” for the scattering phase function, which are inverted using a technique (Lumpe et al, this meeting) to retrieve particle size information. We employ a T-matrix scattering code which applies to a wide range of non-sphericity of the ice particles, using the conventional idealized prolate/oblate spheroidal shape. This end-to-end test of the relatively new scattering phase function technique provides insight into both the retrieval accuracy and the information content in passive remote sensing of PMC.

Microphysical Structures of Hurricane Irma Observed by Polarimetric Radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Didlake, A. C.; Kumjian, M. R.

2017-12-01

This study examines dual-polarization radar observations of Hurricane Irma as its center passed near the WSR-88D radar in Puerto Rico, capturing needed microphysical information of a mature tropical cyclone. Twenty hours of observations continuously sampled the inner core precipitation features. These data were analyzed by annuli and azimuth, providing a bulk characterization of the primary eyewall, secondary eyewall, and rainbands as they varied around the storm. Polarimetric radar variables displayed distinct signatures of convective and stratiform precipitation in the primary eyewall and rainbands that were organized in a manner consistent with the expected kinematic asymmetry of a storm in weak environmental wind shear but with moderate low-level storm-relative flow. In the front quadrants of the primary eyewall, vertical profiles of differential reflectivity (ZDR) exhibit increasing values with decreasing height consistent with convective precipitation processes. In particular, the front-right quadrant exhibits a signature in reflectivity (ZH) and ZDR indicating larger, sparser drops, which is consistent with a stronger updraft present in this quadrant. In the rear quadrants, a sharply peaked ZDR maximum occurs within the melting layer, which is attributed of stratiform processes. In the rainbands, the convective to stratiform transition can be seen traveling from the front-right to the front-left quadrant. The front-right quadrant exhibits lower co-polar correlation coefficient (ρHV) values in the 3-8 km altitude layer, suggesting larger vertical spreading of various hydrometeors that occurs in convective vertical motions. The front-left quadrant exhibits larger ρHV values, suggesting less diversity of hydrometeor shapes, consistent with stratiform processes. The secondary eyewall did not exhibit a clear signature of processes preferred in a specific quadrant, and a temporal analysis of the secondary eyewall revealed a complex evolution of its structure

An Overview of Numerical Weather Prediction on Various Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, J.-W.

2009-04-01

The increasing public need for detailed weather forecasts, along with the advances in computer technology, has motivated many research institutes and national weather forecasting centers to develop and run global as well as regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at high resolutions (i.e., with horizontal resolutions of ~10 km or higher for global models and 1 km or higher for regional models, and with ~60 vertical levels or higher). The need for running NWP models at high horizontal and vertical resolutions requires the implementation of non-hydrostatic dynamic core with a choice of horizontal grid configurations and vertical coordinates that are appropriate for high resolutions. Development of advanced numerics will also be needed for high resolution global and regional models, in particular, when the models are applied to transport problems and air quality applications. In addition to the challenges in numerics, the NWP community is also facing the challenges of developing physics parameterizations that are well suited for high-resolution NWP models. For example, when NWP models are run at resolutions of ~5 km or higher, the use of much more detailed microphysics parameterizations than those currently used in NWP model will become important. Another example is that regional NWP models at ~1 km or higher only partially resolve convective energy containing eddies in the lower troposphere. Parameterizations to account for the subgrid diffusion associated with unresolved turbulence still need to be developed. Further, physically sound parameterizations for air-sea interaction will be a critical component for tropical NWP models, particularly for hurricane predictions models. In this review presentation, the above issues will be elaborated on and the approaches to address them will be discussed.

Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China.

PubMed

Cui, Jing; Zhou, Lingjun; Wee, B; Shen, Fengping; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

2014-05-01

Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

PubMed Central

Shao, Yu-Yun; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

2015-01-01

Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC. PMID:26420960

Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

PubMed

Shao, Yu-Yun; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

2015-09-28

Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC.

Twomey effect observed from collocated microphysical and remote sensing measurements over shallow cumulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, F.; Ditas, F.; Siebert, H.; Simmel, M.; Wehner, B.; Pilewskie, P.; Schmeissner, T.; Shaw, R. A.; Hartmann, S.; Wex, H.; Roberts, G. C.; Wendisch, M.

2014-02-01

Clear experimental evidence of the Twomey effect for shallow trade wind cumuli near Barbados is presented. Effective droplet radius (reff) and cloud optical thickness (τ), retrieved from helicopter-borne spectral cloud-reflected radiance measurements, and spectral cloud reflectivity (γλ) are correlated with collocated in situ observations of the number concentration of aerosol particles from the subcloud layer (N). N denotes the concentration of particles larger than 80 nm in diameter and represents particles in the activation mode. In situ cloud microphysical and aerosol parameters were sampled by the Airborne Cloud Turbulence Observation System (ACTOS). Spectral cloud-reflected radiance data were collected by the Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation measurement sysTem (SMART-HELIOS). With increasing N a shift in the probability density functions of τ and γλ toward larger values is observed, while the mean values and observed ranges of retrieved reff decrease. The relative susceptibilities (RS) of reff, τ, and γλ to N are derived for bins of constant liquid water path. The resulting values of RS are in the range of 0.35 for reff and τ, and 0.27 for γλ. These results are close to the maximum susceptibility possible from theory. Overall, the shallow cumuli sampled near Barbados show characteristics of homogeneous, plane-parallel clouds. Comparisons of RS derived from in situ measured reff and from a microphysical parcel model are in close agreement.

Retrieval of cloud microphysical parameters from INSAT-3D: a feasibility study using radiative transfer simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jinya, John; Bipasha, Paul S.

2016-05-01

Clouds strongly modulate the Earths energy balance and its atmosphere through their interaction with the solar and terrestrial radiation. They interact with radiation in various ways like scattering, emission and absorption. By observing these changes in radiation at different wavelength, cloud properties can be estimated. Cloud properties are of utmost importance in studying different weather and climate phenomena. At present, no satellite provides cloud microphysical parameters over the Indian region with high temporal resolution. INSAT-3D imager observations in 6 spectral channels from geostationary platform offer opportunity to study continuous cloud properties over Indian region. Visible (0.65 μm) and shortwave-infrared (1.67 μm) channel radiances can be used to retrieve cloud microphysical parameters such as cloud optical thickness (COT) and cloud effective radius (CER). In this paper, we have carried out a feasibility study with the objective of cloud microphysics retrieval. For this, an inter-comparison of 15 globally available radiative transfer models (RTM) were carried out with the aim of generating a Look-up- Table (LUT). SBDART model was chosen for the simulations. The sensitivity of each spectral channel to different cloud properties was investigated. The inputs to the RT model were configured over our study region (50°S - 50°N and 20°E - 130°E) and a large number of simulations were carried out using random input vectors to generate the LUT. The determination of cloud optical thickness and cloud effective radius from spectral reflectance measurements constitutes the inverse problem and is typically solved by comparing the measured reflectances with entries in LUT and searching for the combination of COT and CER that gives the best fit. The products are available on the website www.mosdac.gov.in

Performance of Precipitation Algorithms During IPHEx and Observations of Microphysical Characteristics in Complex Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erlingis, J. M.; Gourley, J. J.; Kirstetter, P.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Kalogiros, J. A.; Anagnostou, M.

2015-12-01

An Intensive Observation Period (IOP) for the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx), part of NASA's Ground Validation campaign for the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission satellite took place from May-June 2014 in the Smoky Mountains of western North Carolina. The National Severe Storms Laboratory's mobile dual-pol X-band radar, NOXP, was deployed in the Pigeon River Basin during this time and employed various scanning strategies, including more than 1000 Range Height Indicator (RHI) scans in coordination with another radar and research aircraft. Rain gauges and disdrometers were also positioned within the basin to verify precipitation estimates and estimation of microphysical parameters. The performance of the SCOP-ME post-processing algorithm on NOXP data is compared with real-time and near real-time precipitation estimates with varying spatial resolutions and quality control measures (Stage IV gauge-corrected radar estimates, Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System Quantitative Precipitation Estimates, and CMORPH satellite estimates) to assess the utility of a gap-filling radar in complex terrain. Additionally, the RHI scans collected in this IOP provide a valuable opportunity to examine the evolution of microphysical characteristics of convective and stratiform precipitation as they impinge on terrain. To further the understanding of orographically enhanced precipitation, multiple storms for which RHI data are available are considered.

Prediction of Indian Summer-Monsoon Onset Variability: A Season in Advance.

PubMed

Pradhan, Maheswar; Rao, A Suryachandra; Srivastava, Ankur; Dakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Shameera, K S

2017-10-27

Monsoon onset is an inherent transient phenomenon of Indian Summer Monsoon and it was never envisaged that this transience can be predicted at long lead times. Though onset is precipitous, its variability exhibits strong teleconnections with large scale forcing such as ENSO and IOD and hence may be predictable. Despite of the tremendous skill achieved by the state-of-the-art models in predicting such large scale processes, the prediction of monsoon onset variability by the models is still limited to just 2-3 weeks in advance. Using an objective definition of onset in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the skillful prediction of onset variability is feasible under seasonal prediction framework. The better representations/simulations of not only the large scale processes but also the synoptic and intraseasonal features during the evolution of monsoon onset are the comprehensions behind skillful simulation of monsoon onset variability. The changes observed in convection, tropospheric circulation and moisture availability prior to and after the onset are evidenced in model simulations, which resulted in high hit rate of early/delay in monsoon onset in the high resolution model.

Electric Fields, Cloud Microphysics, and Reflectivity in Anvils of Florida Thunderstorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dye, J. E.; Bateman, M. G.; Christian, H. J.; Defer, E.; Grainger, C. A.; Hall, W. D.; Krider, E. P.; Lewis, S. A.; Mach, D. M.; Merceret, F. J.;

Electric Fields, Cloud Microphysics, and Reflectivity in Anvils of Florida Thunderstorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dye, J. E.; Bateman, M. G.; Christian, H. J.; Grainger, C. A.; Hall, W. D.; Krider, E. P.; Lewis, S. A.; Mach, D. M.; Merceret, F. J.; Willett, J. C.;

Measured and predicted rotor performance for the SERI advanced wind turbine blades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tangler, J.; Smith, B.; Kelley, N.; Jager, D.

1992-02-01

Measured and predicted rotor performance for the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI) advanced wind turbine blades were compared to assess the accuracy of predictions and to identify the sources of error affecting both predictions and measurements. An awareness of these sources of error contributes to improved prediction and measurement methods that will ultimately benefit future rotor design efforts. Propeller/vane anemometers were found to underestimate the wind speed in turbulent environments such as the San Gorgonio Pass wind farm area. Using sonic or cup anemometers, good agreement was achieved between predicted and measured power output for wind speeds up to 8 m/sec. At higher wind speeds an optimistic predicted power output and the occurrence of peak power at wind speeds lower than measurements resulted from the omission of turbulence and yaw error. In addition, accurate two-dimensional (2-D) airfoil data prior to stall and a post stall airfoil data synthesization method that reflects three-dimensional (3-D) effects were found to be essential for accurate performance prediction.

Modified CLIP with objective liver reserve assessment retains prognosis prediction for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Shao, Yu-Yun; Liu, Tsung-Hao; Lee, Ying-Hui; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

2016-07-01

The Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score is a commonly used staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) helpful with predicting prognosis of advanced HCC. CLIP uses the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score to evaluate liver reserve. A new scoring system, the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, has been proposed as they objectively evaluate liver reserve. We examined whether the modification of CLIP with ALBI retained its prognosis prediction for patients with advanced HCC. We included patients who received first-line antiangiogenic therapy for advanced HCC. Liver reserve was assessed using CTP and ALBI scores, which were then incorporated into CLIP and ALBI-CLIP, respectively. To assess their efficacies of prognostic prediction, the Cox's proportional hazard model and concordance indexes were used. A total of 142 patients were included; 137 of them were classified CTP A and 5 patients CTP B. Patients could be divided into four or five groups with different prognosis according to CLIP and ALBI-CLIP, respectively. Higher R(2) (0.249 vs 0.216) and lower Akaike information criterion (995.0 vs 1001.1) were observed for ALBI-CLIP than for CLIP in the Cox's model predicting overall survival. ALBI-CLIP remained an independent predictor for overall survival when CLIP and ALBI-CLIP were simultaneously incorporated in Cox's models allowing variable selection with adjustment for hepatitis etiology, treatment, and performance status. The concordance index was also higher for ALBI-CLIP than for CLIP (0.724 vs 0.703). Modification of CLIP scoring with ALBI, which objectively assesses liver reserve, retains and might have improved prognosis prediction for advanced HCC. © 2016 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Microphysical particle properties derived from inversion algorithms developed in the framework of EARLINET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Detlef; Böckmann, Christine; Kolgotin, Alexei; Schneidenbach, Lars; Chemyakin, Eduard; Rosemann, Julia; Znak, Pavel; Romanov, Anton

2016-10-01

We present a summary on the current status of two inversion algorithms that are used in EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) for the inversion of data collected with EARLINET multiwavelength Raman lidars. These instruments measure backscatter coefficients at 355, 532, and 1064 nm, and extinction coefficients at 355 and 532 nm. Development of these two algorithms started in 2000 when EARLINET was founded. The algorithms are based on a manually controlled inversion of optical data which allows for detailed sensitivity studies. The algorithms allow us to derive particle effective radius as well as volume and surface area concentration with comparably high confidence. The retrieval of the real and imaginary parts of the complex refractive index still is a challenge in view of the accuracy required for these parameters in climate change studies in which light absorption needs to be known with high accuracy. It is an extreme challenge to retrieve the real part with an accuracy better than 0.05 and the imaginary part with accuracy better than 0.005-0.1 or ±50 %. Single-scattering albedo can be computed from the retrieved microphysical parameters and allows us to categorize aerosols into high- and low-absorbing aerosols. On the basis of a few exemplary simulations with synthetic optical data we discuss the current status of these manually operated algorithms, the potentially achievable accuracy of data products, and the goals for future work. One algorithm was used with the purpose of testing how well microphysical parameters can be derived if the real part of the complex refractive index is known to at least 0.05 or 0.1. The other algorithm was used to find out how well microphysical parameters can be derived if this constraint for the real part is not applied. The optical data used in our study cover a range of Ångström exponents and extinction-to-backscatter (lidar) ratios that are found from lidar measurements of various aerosol types. We also tested

On The Cloud Processing of Aerosol Particles: An Entraining Air Parcel Model With Two-dimensional Spectral Cloud Microphysics and A New Formulation of The Collection Kernel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bott, Andreas; Kerkweg, Astrid; Wurzler, Sabine

A study has been made of the modification of aerosol spectra due to cloud pro- cesses and the impact of the modified aerosols on the microphysical structure of future clouds. For this purpose an entraining air parcel model with two-dimensional spectral cloud microphysics has been used. In order to treat collision/coalescence processes in the two-dimensional microphysical module, a new realistic and continuous formu- lation of the collection kernel has been developed. Based on experimental data, the kernel covers the entire investigated size range of aerosols, cloud and rain drops, that is the kernel combines all important coalescence processes such as the collision of cloud drops as well as the impaction scavenging of small aerosols by big raindrops. Since chemical reactions in the gas phase and in cloud drops have an important impact on the physico-chemical properties of aerosol particles, the parcel model has been extended by a chemical module describing gas phase and aqueous phase chemical reactions. However, it will be shown that in the numerical case studies presented in this paper the modification of aerosols by chemical reactions has a minor influence on the microphysical structure of future clouds. The major process yielding in a second cloud event an enhanced formation of rain is the production of large aerosol particles by collision/coalescence processes in the first cloud.

Genomic Prediction of Seed Quality Traits Using Advanced Barley Breeding Lines.

PubMed

Nielsen, Nanna Hellum; Jahoor, Ahmed; Jensen, Jens Due; Orabi, Jihad; Cericola, Fabio; Edriss, Vahid; Jensen, Just

2016-01-01

Genomic selection was recently introduced in plant breeding. The objective of this study was to develop genomic prediction for important seed quality parameters in spring barley. The aim was to predict breeding values without expensive phenotyping of large sets of lines. A total number of 309 advanced spring barley lines tested at two locations each with three replicates were phenotyped and each line was genotyped by Illumina iSelect 9Kbarley chip. The population originated from two different breeding sets, which were phenotyped in two different years. Phenotypic measurements considered were: seed size, protein content, protein yield, test weight and ergosterol content. A leave-one-out cross-validation strategy revealed high prediction accuracies ranging between 0.40 and 0.83. Prediction across breeding sets resulted in reduced accuracies compared to the leave-one-out strategy. Furthermore, predicting across full and half-sib-families resulted in reduced prediction accuracies. Additionally, predictions were performed using reduced marker sets and reduced training population sets. In conclusion, using less than 200 lines in the training set can result in low prediction accuracy, and the accuracy will then be highly dependent on the family structure of the selected training set. However, the results also indicate that relatively small training sets (200 lines) are sufficient for genomic prediction in commercial barley breeding. In addition, our results indicate a minimum marker set of 1,000 to decrease the risk of low prediction accuracy for some traits or some families.

Genomic Prediction of Seed Quality Traits Using Advanced Barley Breeding Lines

PubMed Central

Nielsen, Nanna Hellum; Jahoor, Ahmed; Jensen, Jens Due; Orabi, Jihad; Cericola, Fabio; Edriss, Vahid; Jensen, Just

2016-01-01

Genomic selection was recently introduced in plant breeding. The objective of this study was to develop genomic prediction for important seed quality parameters in spring barley. The aim was to predict breeding values without expensive phenotyping of large sets of lines. A total number of 309 advanced spring barley lines tested at two locations each with three replicates were phenotyped and each line was genotyped by Illumina iSelect 9Kbarley chip. The population originated from two different breeding sets, which were phenotyped in two different years. Phenotypic measurements considered were: seed size, protein content, protein yield, test weight and ergosterol content. A leave-one-out cross-validation strategy revealed high prediction accuracies ranging between 0.40 and 0.83. Prediction across breeding sets resulted in reduced accuracies compared to the leave-one-out strategy. Furthermore, predicting across full and half-sib-families resulted in reduced prediction accuracies. Additionally, predictions were performed using reduced marker sets and reduced training population sets. In conclusion, using less than 200 lines in the training set can result in low prediction accuracy, and the accuracy will then be highly dependent on the family structure of the selected training set. However, the results also indicate that relatively small training sets (200 lines) are sufficient for genomic prediction in commercial barley breeding. In addition, our results indicate a minimum marker set of 1,000 to decrease the risk of low prediction accuracy for some traits or some families. PMID:27783639

Life Prediction of Fretting Fatigue with Advanced Surface Treatments (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-05-01

surfaces and not the fretting pads. The chosen coatings included DLC, Ni-B, Molybdenum, and Nitride. These 4 coatings, their application to the titanium ...Article Preprint 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER In-house 5b. GRANT NUMBER 4 . TITLE AND SUBTITLE LIFE PREDICTION OF FRETTING FATIGUE WITH ADVANCED SURFACE...TREATMENTS (PREPRINT) 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER N/A 5d. PROJECT NUMBER M02R 5e. TASK NUMBER 30 6 . AUTHOR(S) Patrick J. Golden and Michael

Influence of the micro-physical properties of the aerosol on the atmospheric correction of OLI data acquired over desert area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzo, Ciro; Bassani, Cristiana

2016-04-01

This paper focuses on the evaluation of surface reflectance obtained by different atmospheric correction algorithms of the Landsat 8 OLI data considering or not the micro-physical properties of the aerosol when images are acquired in desert area located in South-West of Nile delta. The atmospheric correction of remote sensing data was shown to be sensitive to the aerosol micro-physical properties, as reported in Bassani et al., 2012. In particular, the role of the aerosol micro-physical properties on the accuracy of the atmospheric correction of remote sensing data was investigated [Bassani et al., 2015; Tirelli et al., 2015]. In this work, the OLI surface reflectance was retrieved by the developed OLI@CRI (OLI ATmospherically Corrected Reflectance Imagery) physically-based atmospheric correction which considers the aerosol micro-physical properties available from the two AERONET stations [Holben et al., 1998] close to the study area (El_Farafra and Cairo_EMA_2). The OLI@CRI algorithm is based on 6SV radiative transfer model, last generation of the Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) radiative transfer code [Kotchenova et al., 2007; Vermote et al., 1997], specifically developed for Landsat 8 OLI data. The OLI reflectance obtained by the OLI@CRI was compared with reflectance obtained by other atmospheric correction algorithms which do not consider micro-physical properties of aerosol (DOS) or take on aerosol standard models (FLAASH, implemented in ENVI software). The accuracy of the surface reflectance retrieved by different algorithms were calculated by comparing the spatially resampled OLI images with the MODIS surface reflectance products. Finally, specific image processing was applied to the OLI reflectance images in order to compare remote sensing products obtained for same scene. The results highlight the influence of the physical characterization of aerosol on the OLI data improving the retrieved atmospherically corrected

A Global Modeling Study on Carbonaceous Aerosol Microphysical Characteristics and Radiative Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, S. E.; Menon, S.; Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Tsigaridis, K.

2010-01-01

Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative effects. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative flux change between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative flux change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Absorption of black carbon aerosols is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings and, even more strongly, by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative fluxeswhen sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to a reduction in positive radiative flux.

A global modeling study on carbonaceous aerosol microphysical characteristics and radiative effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, S. E.; Menon, S.; Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Tsigaridis, K.

2010-08-01

Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative effects. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative flux change between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative flux change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Absorption of black carbon aerosols is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings and, even more strongly, by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative fluxeswhen sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to a reduction in positive radiative flux.

A Bulk Microphysics Parameterization with Multiple Ice Precipitation Categories.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straka, Jerry M.; Mansell, Edward R.

2005-04-01

A single-moment bulk microphysics scheme with multiple ice precipitation categories is described. It has 2 liquid hydrometeor categories (cloud droplets and rain) and 10 ice categories that are characterized by habit, size, and density—two ice crystal habits (column and plate), rimed cloud ice, snow (ice crystal aggregates), three categories of graupel with different densities and intercepts, frozen drops, small hail, and large hail. The concept of riming history is implemented for conversions among the graupel and frozen drops categories. The multiple precipitation ice categories allow a range of particle densities and fall velocities for simulating a variety of convective storms with minimal parameter tuning. The scheme is applied to two cases—an idealized continental multicell storm that demonstrates the ice precipitation process, and a small Florida maritime storm in which the warm rain process is important.

A Serum Protein Profile Predictive of the Resistance to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Advanced Breast Cancers*

PubMed Central

Hyung, Seok-Won; Lee, Min Young; Yu, Jong-Han; Shin, Byunghee; Jung, Hee-Jung; Park, Jong-Moon; Han, Wonshik; Lee, Kyung-Min; Moon, Hyeong-Gon; Zhang, Hui; Aebersold, Ruedi; Hwang, Daehee; Lee, Sang-Won; Yu, Myeong-Hee; Noh, Dong-Young

2011-01-01

Prediction of the responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) can improve the treatment of patients with advanced breast cancer. Genes and proteins predictive of chemoresistance have been extensively studied in breast cancer tissues. However, noninvasive serum biomarkers capable of such prediction have been rarely exploited. Here, we performed profiling of N-glycosylated proteins in serum from fifteen advanced breast cancer patients (ten patients sensitive to and five patients resistant to NACT) to discover serum biomarkers of chemoresistance using a label-free liquid chromatography-tandem MS method. By performing a series of statistical analyses of the proteomic data, we selected thirteen biomarker candidates and tested their differential serum levels by Western blotting in 13 independent samples (eight patients sensitive to and five patients resistant to NACT). Among the candidates, we then selected the final set of six potential serum biomarkers (AHSG, APOB, C3, C9, CP, and ORM1) whose differential expression was confirmed in the independent samples. Finally, we demonstrated that a multivariate classification model using the six proteins could predict responses to NACT and further predict relapse-free survival of patients. In summary, global N-glycoproteome profile in serum revealed a protein pattern predictive of the responses to NACT, which can be further validated in large clinical studies. PMID:21799047

Advances in the assessment and prediction of interpersonal violence.

PubMed

Mills, Jeremy F

2005-02-01

This article underscores the weakness of clinical judgment as a mechanism for prediction with examples from other areas in the psychological literature. Clinical judgment has as its Achilles'heel the reliance on a person to incorporate multiple pieces of information while overcoming human judgment errors--a feat insurmountable thus far. The actuarial approach to risk assessment has overcome many of the weaknesses of clinical judgment and has been shown to be a much superior method. Nonetheless, the static/historical nature of the risk factors associated with most actuarial approaches is limiting. Advances in risk prediction will be found in part in the development of dynamic actuarial instruments that will measure both static/historical and changeable risk factors. The dynamic risk factors can be reevaluated on an ongoing basis, and it is proposed that the level of change in dynamic factors necessary to represent a significant change in overall risk will be an interactive function with static risk factors.

Implementation of an Aerosol-Cloud Microphysics-Radiation Coupling into the NASA Unified WRF: Simulation Results for the 6-7 August 2006 AMMA Special Observing Period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shi, J. J.; Matsui, T.; Tao, W.-K.; Tan, Q.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Chin, M.; Pickering, K.; Guy, N.; Lang, S.; Kemp, E. M.

2014-01-01

Aerosols affect the Earth's radiation balance directly and cloud microphysical processes indirectly via the activation of cloud condensation and ice nuclei. These two effects have often been considered separately and independently, hence the need to assess their combined impact given the differing nature of their effects on convective clouds. To study both effects, an aerosol-microphysics-radiation coupling, including Goddard microphysics and radiation schemes, was implemented into the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF). Fully coupled NU-WRF simulations were conducted for a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that passed through the Niamey, Niger area on 6-7 August 2006 during an African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) special observing period. The results suggest that rainfall is reduced when aerosol indirect effects are included, regardless of the aerosol direct effect. Daily mean radiation heating profiles in the area traversed by the MCS showed the aerosol (mainly mineral dust) direct effect had the largest impact near cloud tops just above 200 hectopascals where short-wave heating increased by about 0.8 Kelvin per day; the weakest long-wave cooling was at around 250 hectopascals. It was also found that more condensation and ice nuclei as a result of higher aerosol/dust concentrations led to increased amounts of all cloud hydrometeors because of the microphysical indirect effect, and the radiation direct effect acts to reduce precipitating cloud particles (rain, snow and graupel) in the middle and lower cloud layers while increasing the non-precipitating particles (ice) in the cirrus anvil. However, when the aerosol direct effect was activated, regardless of the indirect effect, the onset of MCS precipitation was delayed about 2 hours, in conjunction with the delay in the activation of cloud condensation and ice nuclei. Overall, for this particular environment, model set-up and physics configuration, the effect of aerosol

Retrieving microphysics of cirrus clouds from data measured with raman lidar ramses and a tilted ceilometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borovoi, Anatoli; Reichardt, Jens; Görsdorf, Ulrich; Wolf, Veronika; Konoshonkin, Alexander; Shishko, Victor; Kustova, Natalia

2018-04-01

To develop a microphysical model of cirrus clouds, data obtained by Raman lidar RAMSES and a tilted ceilometer are studied synergistically. The measurements are interpreted by use of a data archive containing the backscattering matrixes as well as the depolarization, color and lidar ratios of ice crystals of different shapes, sizes and spatial orientations calculated within the physical-optics approximation.

Sensitivity of Numerical Simulations of a Mesoscale Convective System to Ice Hydrometeors in Bulk Microphysical Parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Zhaoxia; Lin, Chao; Dong, Xiquan; Krueger, Steven K.

2018-01-01

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their associated cloud properties are the important factors that influence the aviation activities, yet they present a forecasting challenge in numerical weather prediction. In this study, the sensitivity of numerical simulations of an MCS over the US Southern Great Plains to ice hydrometeors in bulk microphysics (MP) schemes has been investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It is found that the simulated structure, life cycle, cloud coverage, and precipitation of the convective system as well as its associated cold pools are sensitive to three selected MP schemes, namely, the WRF single-moment 6-class (WSM6), WRF double-moment 6-class (WDM6, with the double-moment treatment of warm-rain only), and Morrison double-moment (MORR, with the double-moment representation of both warm-rain and ice) schemes. Compared with observations, the WRF simulation with WSM6 only produces a less organized convection structure with a short lifetime, while WDM6 can produce the structure and length of the MCS very well. Both simulations heavily underestimate the precipitation amount, the height of the radar echo top, and stratiform cloud fractions. With MORR, the model performs well in predicting the lifetime, cloud coverage, echo top, and precipitation amount of the convection. Overall results demonstrate the importance of including double-moment representation of ice hydrometeors along with warm-rain. Additional experiments are performed to further examine the role of ice hydrometeors in numerical simulations of the MCS. Results indicate that replacing graupel with hail in the MORR scheme improves the prediction of the convective structure, especially in the convective core region.

Comparing Aircraft Observations of Snowfall to Forecasts Using Single or Two Moment Bulk Water Microphysics Schemes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.

2010-01-01

High resolution weather forecast models with explicit prediction of hydrometeor type, size distribution, and fall speed may be useful in the development of precipitation retrievals, by providing representative characteristics of frozen hydrometeors. Several single or double-moment microphysics schemes are currently available within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, allowing for the prediction of up to three ice species. Each scheme incorporates different assumptions regarding the characteristics of their ice classes, particularly in terms of size distribution, density, and fall speed. In addition to the prediction of hydrometeor content, these schemes must accurately represent the vertical profile of water vapor to account for possible attenuation, along with the size distribution, density, and shape characteristics of ice crystals that are relevant to microwave scattering. An evaluation of a particular scheme requires the availability of field campaign measurements. The Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) obtained measurements of ice crystal shapes, size distributions, fall speeds, and precipitation during several intensive observation periods. In this study, C3VP observations obtained during the 22 January 2007 synoptic-scale snowfall event are compared against WRF model output, based upon forecasts using four single-moment and two double-moment schemes available as of version 3.1. Schemes are compared against aircraft observations by examining differences in size distribution, density, and content. In addition to direct measurements from aircraft probes, simulated precipitation can also be converted to equivalent, remotely sensed characteristics through the use of the NASA Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit. Outputs from high resolution forecasts are compared against radar and satellite observations emphasizing differences in assumed crystal shape and size distribution characteristics.

Cloud Microphysical Properties in Mesoscale Convective Systems: An Intercomparison of Three Tropical Locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontaine, Emmanuel; Leroy, Delphine; Schwarzenboeck, Alfons; Coutris, Pierre; Delanoë, Julien; Protat, Alain; Dezitter, Fabien; Grandin, Alice; Strapp, John W.; Lilie, Lyle E.

2017-04-01

Mesoscale Convective Systems are complex cloud systems which are primarily the result of specific synoptic conditions associated with mesoscale instabilities leading to the development of cumulonimbus type clouds (Houze, 2004). These systems can last several hours and can affect human societies in various ways. In general, weather and climate models use simplistic schemes to describe ice hydrometeors' properties. However, MCS are complex cloud systems where the dynamic, radiative and precipitation processes depend on spatiotemporal location in the MCS (Houze, 2004). As a consequence, hydrometeor growth processes in MCS vary in space and time, thereby impacting shape and concentration of ice crystals and finally CWC. As a consequence, differences in the representation of ice properties in models (Li et al., 2007, 2005) lead to significant disagreements in the quantification of ice cloud effects on climate evolution (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report). An accurate estimation of the spatiotemporal CWC distribution is therefore a key parameter for evaluating and improving numerical weather prediction (Stephens et al., 2002). The main purpose of this study is to show ice microphysical properties of MCS observed in three different locations in the tropical atmosphere: West-African continent, Indian Ocean, and Northern Australia. An intercomparison study is performed in order to quantify how similar or different are the ice hydrometeors' properties in these three regions related to radar reflectivity factors and temperatures observed in respective MCS.

Cancer Pharmacogenomics: Integrating Discoveries in Basic, Clinical and Population Sciences to Advance Predictive Cancer Care

Cancer.gov

Cancer Pharmacogenomics: Integrating Discoveries in Basic, Clinical and Population Sciences to Advance Predictive Cancer Care, a 2010 workshop sponsored by the Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program.

Validating a Predictive Model of Acute Advanced Imaging Biomarkers in Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Bivard, Andrew; Levi, Christopher; Lin, Longting; Cheng, Xin; Aviv, Richard; Spratt, Neil J; Lou, Min; Kleinig, Tim; O'Brien, Billy; Butcher, Kenneth; Zhang, Jingfen; Jannes, Jim; Dong, Qiang; Parsons, Mark

2017-03-01

Advanced imaging to identify tissue pathophysiology may provide more accurate prognostication than the clinical measures used currently in stroke. This study aimed to derive and validate a predictive model for functional outcome based on acute clinical and advanced imaging measures. A database of prospectively collected sub-4.5 hour patients with ischemic stroke being assessed for thrombolysis from 5 centers who had computed tomographic perfusion and computed tomographic angiography before a treatment decision was assessed. Individual variable cut points were derived from a classification and regression tree analysis. The optimal cut points for each assessment variable were then used in a backward logic regression to predict modified Rankin scale (mRS) score of 0 to 1 and 5 to 6. The variables remaining in the models were then assessed using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Overall, 1519 patients were included in the study, 635 in the derivation cohort and 884 in the validation cohort. The model was highly accurate at predicting mRS score of 0 to 1 in all patients considered for thrombolysis therapy (area under the curve [AUC] 0.91), those who were treated (AUC 0.88) and those with recanalization (AUC 0.89). Next, the model was highly accurate at predicting mRS score of 5 to 6 in all patients considered for thrombolysis therapy (AUC 0.91), those who were treated (0.89) and those with recanalization (AUC 0.91). The odds ratio of thrombolysed patients who met the model criteria achieving mRS score of 0 to 1 was 17.89 (4.59-36.35, P <0.001) and for mRS score of 5 to 6 was 8.23 (2.57-26.97, P <0.001). This study has derived and validated a highly accurate model at predicting patient outcome after ischemic stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Precipitation microphysics characteristics of a Typhoon Matmo (2014) rainband after landfall over eastern China based on polarimetric radar observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mingjun; Zhao, Kun; Xue, Ming; Zhang, Guifu; Liu, Su; Wen, Long; Chen, Gang

2016-10-01

The evolution of microphysical characteristics of a rainband in Typhoon Matmo (2014) over eastern China, through its onset, developing, mature, and dissipating stages, is documented using observations from an S band polarimetric Doppler radar and a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD). The drop size distributions observed by the 2DVD and retrieved from the polarimetric radar measurements indicate that the convection in the rainband generally contains smaller drops and higher number concentrations than the typical maritime type convection described in Bringi et al. (2003). The average mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm) of convective precipitation in the rainband is about 1.41 mm, and the average logarithmic normalized intercept (Nw) is 4.67 log10 mm-1 m-3. To further investigate the dominant microphysical processes, the evolution of the vertical structures of polarimetric variables is examined. Results show that complex ice processes are involved above the freezing level, while it is most likely that the accretion and/or coalescence processes dominate below the freezing level throughout the rainband life cycle. A combined examination of the polarimetric measurements and profiles of estimated vertical liquid and ice water contents indicates that the conversion of cloud water into rainwater through cloud water accretion by raindrops plays a dominant role in producing heavy rainfall. The high estimated precipitation efficiency of 50% also suggests that cloud water accretion is the dominant mechanism for producing heavy rainfall. This study represents the first time that radar and 2DVD observations are used together to characterize the microphysical characteristics and precipitation efficiency for typhoon rainbands in China.

Double-moment cloud microphysics scheme for the deep convection parameterization in the GFDL AM3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belochitski, A.; Donner, L.

2014-12-01

A double-moment cloud microphysical scheme originally developed by Morrision and Gettelman (2008) for the stratiform clouds and later adopted for the deep convection by Song and Zhang (2011) has been implemented in to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's atmospheric general circulation model AM3. The scheme treats cloud drop, cloud ice, rain, and snow number concentrations and mixing ratios as diagnostic variables and incorporates processes of autoconversion, self-collection, collection between hydrometeor species, sedimentation, ice nucleation, drop activation, homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing, and the Bergeron-Findeisen process. Such detailed representation of microphysical processes makes the scheme suitable for studying the interactions between aerosols and convection, as well as aerosols' indirect effects on clouds and their roles in climate change. The scheme is first tested in the single column version of the GFDL AM3 using forcing data obtained at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurment project's Southern Great Planes site. Scheme's impact on SCM simulations is discussed. As the next step, runs of the full atmospheric GCM incorporating the new parameterization are compared to the unmodified version of GFDL AM3. Global climatological fields and their variability are contrasted with those of the original version of the GCM. Impact on cloud radiative forcing and climate sensitivity is investigated.

Double-moment Cloud Microphysics Scheme for the Deep Convection Parameterization in the GFDL AM3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belochitski, A.; Donner, L.

2013-12-01

A double-moment cloud microphysical scheme originally developed by Morrision and Gettelman (2008) for the stratiform clouds and later adopted for the deep convection by Song and Zhang (2011) is being implemented in to the deep convection parameterization of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's atmospheric general circulation model AM3. The scheme treats cloud drop, cloud ice, rain, and snow number concentrations and mixing ratios as diagnostic variables and incorporates processes of autoconversion, self-collection, collection between hydrometeor species, sedimentation, ice nucleation, drop activation, homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing, and the Bergeron-Findeisen process. Detailed representation of microphysical processes makes the scheme suitable for studying the interactions between aerosols and convection, as well as aerosols' indirect effects on clouds and the roles of these effects in climate change. The scheme is implemented into the single column version of the GFDL AM3 and evaluated using large scale forcing data obtained at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurment project's Southern Great Planes and Tropical West Pacific sites. Sensitivity of the scheme to formulations for autoconversion of cloud water and its accretion by rain, self-collection of rain and self-collection of snow, as well as the formulation for heterogenous ice nucleation is investigated. In the future, tests with the full atmospheric GCM will be conducted.

The first observed cloud echoes and microphysical parameter retrievals by China's 94-GHz cloud radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Juxiu; Wei, Ming; Hang, Xin; Zhou, Jie; Zhang, Peichang; Li, Nan

2014-06-01

By using the cloud echoes first successfully observed by China's indigenous 94-GHz SKY cloud radar, the macrostructure and microphysical properties of drizzling stratocumulus clouds in Anhui Province on 8 June 2013 are analyzed, and the detection capability of this cloud radar is discussed. The results are as follows. (1) The cloud radar is able to observe the time-varying macroscopic and microphysical parameters of clouds, and it can reveal the microscopic structure and small-scale changes of clouds. (2) The velocity spectral width of cloud droplets is small, but the spectral width of the cloud containing both cloud droplets and drizzle is large. When the spectral width is more than 0.4 m s-1, the radar reflectivity factor is larger (over -10 dBZ). (3) The radar's sensitivity is comparatively higher because the minimum radar reflectivity factor is about -35 dBZ in this experiment, which exceeds the threshold for detecting the linear depolarized ratio (LDR) of stratocumulus (commonly -11 to -14 dBZ; decreases with increasing turbulence). (4) After distinguishing of cloud droplets from drizzle, cloud liquid water content and particle effective radius are retrieved. The liquid water content of drizzle is lower than that of cloud droplets at the same radar reflectivity factor.

Microphysical Properties of Frozen Particles Inferred from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) Polarimetric Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gong, Jie; Wu, Dongliang

2017-01-01

Scattering differences induced by frozen particle microphysical properties are investigated, using the vertically (V) and horizontally (H) polarized radiances from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) 89 and 166GHz channels. It is the first study on global frozen particle microphysical properties that uses the dual-frequency microwave polarimetric signals. From the ice cloud scenes identified by the 183.3 3GHz channel brightness temperature (TB), we find that the scatterings of frozen particles are highly polarized with V-H polarimetric differences (PD) being positive throughout the tropics and the winter hemisphere mid-latitude jet regions, including PDs from the GMI 89 and 166GHz TBs, as well as the PD at 640GHz from the ER-2 Compact Scanning Submillimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSSIR) during the TC4 campaign. Large polarization dominantly occurs mostly near convective outflow region (i.e., anvils or stratiform precipitation), while the polarization signal is small inside deep convective cores as well as at the remote cirrus region. Neglecting the polarimetric signal would result in as large as 30 error in ice water path retrievals. There is a universal bell-curve in the PD TB relationship, where the PD amplitude peaks at 10K for all three channels in the tropics and increases slightly with latitude. Moreover, the 166GHz PD tends to increase in the case where a melting layer is beneath the frozen particles aloft in the atmosphere, while 89GHz PD is less sensitive than 166GHz to the melting layer. This property creates a unique PD feature for the identification of the melting layer and stratiform rain with passive sensors. Horizontally oriented non-spherical frozen particles are thought to produce the observed PD because of different ice scattering properties in the V and H polarizations. On the other hand, changes in the ice microphysical habitats or orientation due to turbulence mixing can also lead to a reduced PD in the deep

Development of advanced structural analysis methodologies for predicting widespread fatigue damage in aircraft structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Charles E.; Starnes, James H., Jr.; Newman, James C., Jr.

1995-01-01

NASA is developing a 'tool box' that includes a number of advanced structural analysis computer codes which, taken together, represent the comprehensive fracture mechanics capability required to predict the onset of widespread fatigue damage. These structural analysis tools have complementary and specialized capabilities ranging from a finite-element-based stress-analysis code for two- and three-dimensional built-up structures with cracks to a fatigue and fracture analysis code that uses stress-intensity factors and material-property data found in 'look-up' tables or from equations. NASA is conducting critical experiments necessary to verify the predictive capabilities of the codes, and these tests represent a first step in the technology-validation and industry-acceptance processes. NASA has established cooperative programs with aircraft manufacturers to facilitate the comprehensive transfer of this technology by making these advanced structural analysis codes available to industry.

Effects of Systematic and Random Errors on the Retrieval of Particle Microphysical Properties from Multiwavelength Lidar Measurements Using Inversion with Regularization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramirez, Daniel Perez; Whiteman, David N.; Veselovskii, Igor; Kolgotin, Alexei; Korenskiy, Michael; Alados-Arboledas, Lucas

2013-01-01

In this work we study the effects of systematic and random errors on the inversion of multiwavelength (MW) lidar data using the well-known regularization technique to obtain vertically resolved aerosol microphysical properties. The software implementation used here was developed at the Physics Instrumentation Center (PIC) in Troitsk (Russia) in conjunction with the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. Its applicability to Raman lidar systems based on backscattering measurements at three wavelengths (355, 532 and 1064 nm) and extinction measurements at two wavelengths (355 and 532 nm) has been demonstrated widely. The systematic error sensitivity is quantified by first determining the retrieved parameters for a given set of optical input data consistent with three different sets of aerosol physical parameters. Then each optical input is perturbed by varying amounts and the inversion is repeated. Using bimodal aerosol size distributions, we find a generally linear dependence of the retrieved errors in the microphysical properties on the induced systematic errors in the optical data. For the retrievals of effective radius, number/surface/volume concentrations and fine-mode radius and volume, we find that these results are not significantly affected by the range of the constraints used in inversions. But significant sensitivity was found to the allowed range of the imaginary part of the particle refractive index. Our results also indicate that there exists an additive property for the deviations induced by the biases present in the individual optical data. This property permits the results here to be used to predict deviations in retrieved parameters when multiple input optical data are biased simultaneously as well as to study the influence of random errors on the retrievals. The above results are applied to questions regarding lidar design, in particular for the spaceborne multiwavelength lidar under consideration for the upcoming ACE mission.

High-resolution measurement of cloud microphysics and turbulence at a mountaintop station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siebert, H.; Shaw, R. A.; Ditas, J.; Schmeissner, T.; Malinowski, S. P.; Bodenschatz, E.; Xu, H.

2015-08-01

Mountain research stations are advantageous not only for long-term sampling of cloud properties but also for measurements that are prohibitively difficult to perform on airborne platforms due to the large true air speed or adverse factors such as weight and complexity of the equipment necessary. Some cloud-turbulence measurements, especially Lagrangian in nature, fall into this category. We report results from simultaneous, high-resolution and collocated measurements of cloud microphysical and turbulence properties during several warm cloud events at the Umweltforschungsstation Schneefernerhaus (UFS) on Zugspitze in the German Alps. The data gathered were found to be representative of observations made with similar instrumentation in free clouds. The observed turbulence shared all features known for high-Reynolds-number flows: it exhibited approximately Gaussian fluctuations for all three velocity components, a clearly defined inertial subrange following Kolmogorov scaling (power spectrum, and second- and third-order Eulerian structure functions), and highly intermittent velocity gradients, as well as approximately lognormal kinetic energy dissipation rates. The clouds were observed to have liquid water contents on the order of 1 g m-3 and size distributions typical of continental clouds, sometimes exhibiting long positive tails indicative of large drop production through turbulent mixing or coalescence growth. Dimensionless parameters relevant to cloud-turbulence interactions, the Stokes number and settling parameter are in the range typically observed in atmospheric clouds. Observed fluctuations in droplet number concentration and diameter suggest a preference for inhomogeneous mixing. Finally, enhanced variance in liquid water content fluctuations is observed at high frequencies, and the scale break occurs at a value consistent with the independently estimated phase relaxation time from microphysical measurements.

A global modeling study on carbonaceous aerosol microphysical characteristics and radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, S. E.; Menon, S.; Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Tsigaridis, K.

2010-02-01

Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, cloud-indirect and semi-direct forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative forcing can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics form a coating around a black carbon core, rather than forming a uniformly mixed particle, changes the overall net aerosol radiative forcing from negative to positive. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Black carbon absorption is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings, but even more strongly by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative forcing when sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to climate benefits.

Evaluating Microphysics in Cloud-Resolving Models using TRMM and Ground-based Precipitation Radar Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krueger, S. K.; Zulauf, M. A.; Li, Y.; Zipser, E. J.

2005-05-01

Global satellite datasets such as those produced by ISCCP, ERBE, and CERES provide strong observational constraints on cloud radiative properties. Such observations have been widely used for model evaluation, tuning, and improvement. Cloud radiative properties depend primarily on small, non-precipitating cloud droplets and ice crystals, yet the dynamical, microphysical and radiative processes which produce these small particles often involve large, precipitating hydrometeors. There now exists a global dataset of tropical cloud system precipitation feature (PF) properties, collected by TRMM and produced by Steve Nesbitt, that provides additional observational constraints on cloud system properties. We are using the TRMM PF dataset to evaluate the precipitation microphysics of two simulations of deep, precipitating, convective cloud systems: one is a 29-day summertime, continental case (ARM Summer 1997 SCM IOP, at the Southern Great Plains site); the second is a tropical maritime case: the Kwajalein MCS of 11-12 August 1999 (part of a 52-day simulation). Both simulations employed the same bulk, three-ice category microphysical parameterization (Krueger et al. 1995). The ARM simulation was executed using the UCLA/Utah 2D CRM, while the KWAJEX simulation was produced using the 3D CSU CRM (SAM). The KWAJEX simulation described above is compared with both the actual radar data and the TRMM statistics. For the Kwajalein MCS of 11 to 12 August 1999, there are research radar data available for the lifetime of the system. This particular MCS was large in size and rained heavily, but it was weak to average in measures of convective intensity, against the 5-year TRMM sample of 108. For the Kwajalein MCS simulation, the 20 dBZ contour is at 15.7 km and the 40 dBZ contour at 14.5 km! Of all 108 MCSs observed by TRMM, the highest value for the 40 dBZ contour is 8 km. Clearly, the high reflectivity cores are off scale compared with observed cloud systems in this area. A similar

Predictive models for customizing chemotherapy in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

PubMed

Bonanno, Laura

2013-06-01

The backbone of first-line treatment for Epidermal Growth Factor (EGFR) wild-type (wt) advanced Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients is the use of a platinum-based chemotherapy combination. The treatment is characterized by great inter-individual variability in outcome. Molecular predictive markers are extremely needed in order to identify patients most likely to benefit from platinum-based treatment and resistant ones, thus optimizing chemotherapy approach in NSCLC. Several components of DNA repair response (DRR) have been investigated as potential predictive markers. Among them, high levels of expression of ERCC1, both at protein and mRNA levels, have been associated with resistance to cisplatin in NSCLC. In addition, low levels of expression of RRM1, a target for gemcitabine, have been associated with improved OS in advanced NSCLC patients treated with cisplatin and gemcitabine. Preclinical data and retrospective analyses showed that BRCA1 is able to induce resistance to cisplatin and sensitivity to antimicrotubule agents. In addition, the mRNA levels of expression of RAP80, encoding for a protein cooperating with BRCA1 in homologous recombination (HR), have demonstrated to further sub-classify low BRCA1 NSCLC tumors, improving the predictive model. On the basis of biological knowledge on DNA repair pathway and recent controversial results from clinical validation of potential molecular markers, integrated analysis of multiple DNA repair components could improve predictive information and pave the way to a new approach to customized chemotherapy clinical trials.

Microphysical and macrophysical responses of marine stratocumulus polluted by underlying ships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, Matthew Wells

Multiple sensors flying in the A-train constellation of satellites were used to determine the extent to which aerosol plumes from ships passing below marine stratocumulus alter the microphysical and macrophysical properties of the clouds. Aerosol plumes generated by ships sometimes influence cloud microphysical properties (effective radius) and, to a largely undetermined extent, cloud macrophysical properties (liquid water path, coverage, depth, precipitation, and longevity). Aerosol indirect effects were brought into focus, using observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and the 94-GHZ radar onboard CloudSat. To assess local cloud scale responses to aerosol, the locations of over one thousand ship tracks coinciding with the radar were meticulously logged by hand from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. MODIS imagery was used to distinguish ship tracks that were embedded in closed, open, and unclassifiable mesoscale cellular cloud structures. The impact of aerosol on the microphysical cloud properties in both the closed and open cell regimes were consistent with the changes predicted by the Twomey hypothesis. For the macrophysical changes, differences in the sign and magnitude of these properties were observed between cloud regimes. The results demonstrate that the spatial extent of rainfall (rain cover fraction) and intensity decrease in the clouds contaminated by the ship plume compared to the ambient pristine clouds. Although reductions of precipitation were common amongst the clouds with detectable rainfall (72% of cases), a substantial fraction of ship tracks (28% of cases) exhibited the opposite response. The sign and strength of the response was tied to the type of stratocumulus (e.g., closed vs open cells), depth of the boundary layer, and humidity in the free-troposphere. When closed cellular clouds were identified, liquid water path, drizzle rate, and rain cover fraction (an average

A mathematical model for predicting the adult height of girls with advanced puberty after spontaneous growth.

PubMed

Lemaire, Pierre; Pierre, Delphine; Bertrand, Jean-Baptiste; Brauner, Raja

2014-07-03

Advanced puberty in girls is defined as the onset of puberty between the ages of 8 yr and 10 yr. The objective was to predict adult height (AH) at initial evaluation and to characterize patients with an actual AH below -2 SD (152 cm) and/or lower than their target height (TH) by > one SD (5.6 cm). Data analysis using multiple linear regression models was performed in 50 girls with advanced puberty who reached their AH after spontaneous puberty. The actual AH (159.0 ± 6.1 cm) was similar to the TH (161.2 ± 4.6 cm) and to the AH predicted at the initial evaluation (160.8 ± 6.0 cm), and the actual AH correlated positively with both (R = 0.76, P = 0.0003; R = 0.71, P = 0.008, respectively).The AH was below 152 cm in 7 girls, of whom 3 were characterized by paternal transmission of the advanced puberty. The AH was lower than the TH by >5.6 cm in 8 girls.The AH (cm) could be calculated at the initial evaluation: 1.8822 age + 3.3510 height (SD) - 0.7465 bone age - 1.7993 pubic hair stage + 2.8409 TH (SD) + 150.32.The formula is available online at http://www.kamick.org/lemaire/med/girls-advpub.html.The calculated AH (159.0 ± 5.7 cm) and the actual AH were highly correlated (R = 0.93). The actual AH was lower than the calculated AH by > 0.5 SD in only one case (4.35 cm). We established a formula that can be used at an initial evaluation to predict the AH, and then to assess the risk of reduced AH as a result of advanced puberty. According to this formula, the actual AH was lower than the calculated AH by more than 2.8 cm (0.5 SD) in only one girl. The AHs of the untreated girls with advanced puberty did not differ from those predicted at the initial evaluation by the Bayley and Pinneau table or from the THs. However, this study provides a useful and ready-to-use formula that can be an additional assessment of girls with advanced puberty.

Predicting viscous-range velocity gradient dynamics in large-eddy simulations of turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Perry; Meneveau, Charles

2017-11-01

The details of small-scale turbulence are not directly accessible in large-eddy simulations (LES), posing a modeling challenge because many important micro-physical processes depend strongly on the dynamics of turbulence in the viscous range. Here, we introduce a method for coupling existing stochastic models for the Lagrangian evolution of the velocity gradient tensor with LES to simulate unresolved dynamics. The proposed approach is implemented in LES of turbulent channel flow and detailed comparisons with DNS are carried out. An application to modeling the fate of deformable, small (sub-Kolmogorov) droplets at negligible Stokes number and low volume fraction with one-way coupling is carried out. These results illustrate the ability of the proposed model to predict the influence of small scale turbulence on droplet micro-physics in the context of LES. This research was made possible by a graduate Fellowship from the National Science Foundation and by a Grant from The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative.

Advancing Littoral Zone Aerosol Prediction via Holistic Studies in Regime-Dependent Flows: August 3-9, 2016 Middle East Dust Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solbrig, J. E.; Miller, S. D.; van den Heever, S. C.; Kreidenweis, S. M.; Oo, M. M.; Zupanski, M.; Zhang, J.; Wang, J.; Holz, R.; Albers, S. C.; Grasso, L. D.; Kliewer, A.; Bukowski, J.; Park, J.; Saleeby, S. M.; Wu, T. C.

2017-12-01

Coastal regions represent a complex environment for meteorological processes, their effect on aerosol distributions, and the resulting impacts of those aerosols. These regions are rife with discontinuities that make dynamical processes difficult to predict and confound optical retrieval algorithms with highly variable and poorly characterized backgrounds. Local dynamics can be complicated by interactions between maritime and continental airmasses and the presence of coastal terrain. Additionally, coastal shallow water and high-turbidity produce backgrounds with high water leaving radiance which biases results from remote sensing retrievals. Here we present the highlights of the first two years of work from a Multi-disciplinary University Research Initiative entitled Holistic Analysis of Aerosol in Littoral Environments (HAALE-MURI) with specific focus on a dust event that occurred during the period of August 3-9 2016. During this period, two large dust plumes were observed advecting across the Arabian Peninsula. The first, embedded in a dry airmass, moved across the peninsula from north-west to south-east. This plume eventually stalls as it encounters a moist airmass, likely driven by the sea breeze. Embedded in the moist airmass is a second dust plume lofted from Oman, which then advects northwards over the Persian Gulf. This case presents significant challenges for forecasting, remote sensing, and data assimilation due to a complex meteorological environment and variable coastal bright-water backgrounds. The project team, who endeavor to advance our fundamental understanding of the factors that govern aerosol distribution, optical properties, and microphysical properties in the coastal regions, have focused on this case as our first in-depth case study. We demonstrate new retrieval techniques during both day and night including retrievals over bright coastal waters, a novel approach to in-line data assimilation of aerosol properties including AOT, and the results

Parameterizations of Cloud Microphysics and Indirect Aerosol Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

1. OVERVIEW Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [NRC, 2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e.,more » Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path [Twomey, 1977] and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage [e.g., Ackerman et al., 2000]. Enhanced aerosol concentrations can also suppress warm rain processes by producing a narrow droplet spectrum that inhibits collision and coalescence processes [e.g., Squires and Twomey, 1961; Warner and Twomey, 1967; Warner, 1968; Rosenfeld, 1999]. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect [Albrecht, 1989], is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. Table 1 summarizes the key observational studies identifying the microphysical properties, cloud characteristics, thermodynamics and dynamics associated with cloud systems from high-aerosol continental environments. For example, atmospheric aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, warm-rain process, cold-rain process, cloud-top height, the depth of the mixed phase region, and occurrence of lightning. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing an enhanced source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Hypotheses have been developed to explain the effect of urban regions on convection and precipitation [van den Heever and Cotton, 2007 and

UV Raman lidar measurements of relative humidity for the characterization of cirrus cloud microphysical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Girolamo, P.; Summa, D.; Lin, R.-F.; Maestri, T.; Rizzi, R.; Masiello, G.

2009-11-01

Raman lidar measurements performed in Potenza by the Raman lidar system BASIL in the presence of cirrus clouds are discussed. Measurements were performed on 6 September 2004 in the frame of the Italian phase of the EAQUATE Experiment. The major feature of BASIL is represented by its capability to perform high-resolution and accurate measurements of atmospheric temperature and water vapour, and consequently relative humidity, both in daytime and night-time, based on the application of the rotational and vibrational Raman lidar techniques in the UV. BASIL is also capable to provide measurements of the particle backscatter and extinction coefficient, and consequently lidar ratio (at the time of these measurements, only at one wavelength), which are fundamental to infer geometrical and microphysical properties of clouds. A case study is discussed in order to assess the capability of Raman lidars to measure humidity in presence of cirrus clouds, both below and inside the cloud. While air inside the cloud layers is observed to be always under-saturated with respect to water, both ice super-saturation and under-saturation conditions are found inside these clouds. Upper tropospheric moistening is observed below the lower cloud layer. The synergic use of the data derived from the ground based Raman Lidar and of spectral radiances measured by the NAST-I Airborne Spectrometer allows the determination of the temporal evolution of the atmospheric cooling/heating rates due to the presence of the cirrus cloud. Lidar measurements beneath the cirrus cloud layer have been interpreted using a 1-D cirrus cloud model with explicit microphysics. The 1-D simulations indicate that sedimentation-moistening has contributed significantly to the moist anomaly, but other mechanisms are also contributing. This result supports the hypothesis that the observed mid-tropospheric humidification is a real feature which is strongly influenced by the sublimation of precipitating ice crystals. Results

UV Raman lidar measurements of relative humidity for the characterization of cirrus cloud microphysical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Girolamo, P.; Summa, D.; Lin, R.-F.; Maestri, T.; Rizzi, R.; Masiello, G.

2009-07-01

Raman lidar measurements performed in Potenza by the Raman lidar system BASIL in the presence of cirrus clouds are discussed. Measurements were performed on 6 September 2004 in the frame of Italian phase of the EAQUATE Experiment. The major feature of BASIL is represented by its capability to perform high-resolution and accurate measurements of atmospheric temperature and water vapour, and consequently relative humidity, both in daytime and night-time, based on the application of the rotational and vibrational Raman lidar techniques in the UV. BASIL is also capable to provide measurements of the particle backscatter and extinction coefficient, and consequently lidar ratio (at the time of these measurements only at one wavelength), which are fundamental to infer geometrical and microphysical properties of clouds. A case study is discussed in order to assess the capability of Raman lidars to measure humidity in presence of cirrus clouds, both below and inside the cloud. While air inside the cloud layers is observed to be always under-saturated with respect to water, both ice super-saturation and under-saturation conditions are found inside these clouds. Upper tropospheric moistening is observed below the lower cloud layer. The synergic use of the data derived from the ground based Raman Lidar and of spectral radiances measured by the NAST-I Airborne Spectrometer allows to determine the temporal evolution of the atmospheric cooling/heating rates due to the presence of the cirrus cloud anvil. Lidar measurements beneath the cirrus cloud layer have been interpreted using a 1-D cirrus cloud model with explicit microphysics. The 1-D simulations indicates that sedimentation-moistening has contributed significantly to the moist anomaly, but other mechanisms are also contributing. This result supports the hypothesis that the observed mid-tropospheric humidification is a real feature which is strongly influenced by the sublimation of precipitating ice crystals. Results

Minimalist model of ice microphysics in mixed-phase stratiform clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, F.; Ovchinnikov, M.; Shaw, R. A.

2013-12-01

The question of whether persistent ice crystal precipitation from supercooled layer clouds can be explained by time-dependent, stochastic ice nucleation is explored using an approximate, analytical model and a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model. The updraft velocity in the cloud defines an accumulation zone, where small ice particles cannot fall out until they are large enough, which will increase the residence time of ice particles in the cloud. Ice particles reach a quasi-steady state between growth by vapor deposition and fall speed at cloud base. The analytical model predicts that ice water content (wi) has a 2.5 power-law relationship with ice number concentration (ni). wi and ni from a LES cloud model with stochastic ice nucleation confirm the 2.5 power-law relationship, and initial indications of the scaling law are observed in data from the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign. The prefactor of the power law is proportional to the ice nucleation rate and therefore provides a quantitative link to observations of ice microphysical properties. Ice water content (wi) and ice number concentration (ni) relationship from LES. a and c: Accumulation zone region; b and d: Selective accumulation zone region. Black lines in c and d are best fitted 2.5 slope lines. Colors in Figures a and b represent updraft velocity, while colors in c and d represent altitude. The cloud base and top are at about 600 m and 800 m, respectively. Ice water content (wi) and ice number concentration (ni) relationship for two ice nucleation rates. Blue points are from LES with low ice nucleation rate and red points with high ice nucleation rate. Solid and dashed lines are best fitted 2.5 slope lines.

Classification of TP53 Mutations and HPV Predict Survival in Advanced Larynx Cancer

PubMed Central

Scheel, Adam; Bellile, Emily; McHugh, Jonathan B.; Walline, Heather M.; Prince, Mark E.; Urba, Susan; Wolf, Gregory T.; Eisbruch, Avraham; Worden, Francis; Carey, Thomas E.; Bradford, Carol

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE Assess TP53 functional mutations in the context of other biomarkers in advanced larynx cancer. STUDY DESIGN Prospective analysis of pretreatment tumor TP53, HPV, Bcl-xL and cyclin D1 status in stage III and IV larynx cancer patients in a clinical trial. METHODS TP53 exons 4-9 from 58 tumors were sequenced. Mutations were grouped using three classifications based on their expected function. Each functional group was analyzed for response to induction chemotherapy, time to surgery, survival, HPV status, p16INK4a, Bcl-xl and cyclin D1 expression. RESULTS TP53 Mutations were found in 22/58 (37.9%) patients with advanced larynx cancer, including missense mutations in 13/58 (22.4%) patients, nonsense mutations in 4/58 (6.9%), and deletions in 5/58 (8.6%). High risk HPV was found in 20/52 (38.5%) tumors. A classification based on crystal Evolutionary Action score of p53 (EAp53) distinguished missense mutations with high risk for decreased survival from low risk mutations (p=0.0315). A model including this TP53 classification, HPV status, cyclin D1 and Bcl-xL staining significantly predicts survival (p=0.0017). CONCLUSION EAp53 functional classification of TP53 mutants and biomarkers predict survival in advanced larynx cancer. PMID:27345657

Plasma D-dimer Can Effectively Predict the Prospective Occurrence of Ascites in Advanced Schistosomiasis Japonica Patients.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaoying; Ren, Jianwei; Gao, Zulu; Xu, Yun; Xie, Huiqun; Li, Tingfang; Cheng, Yanhua; Hu, Fei; Liu, Hongyun; Gong, Zhihong; Liang, Jinyi; Shen, Jia; Liu, Zhen; Wu, Feng; Sun, Xi; Niu, Zhongzheng; Ning, An

2017-04-01

China still has more than 30,000 patients of advanced schistosomiasis while new cases being reported consistently. D-dimer is a fibrin degradation product. As ascites being the dominating symptom in advanced schistosomiasis, the present study aimed to explore a prediction model of ascites with D-dimer and other clinical easy-achievable indicators. A case-control study nested in a prospective cohort was conducted in schistosomiasis-endemic area of southern China. A total of 291 patients of advanced schistosomiasis were first investigated in 2013 and further followed in 2014. Information on clinical history, physical examination, and abdominal ultrasonography, including the symptom of ascites was repeatedly collected. Result showed 44 patients having ascites. Most of the patients' ascites were confined in the kidney area with median area of 20 mm 2 . The level of plasma D-dimer and pertinent liver function indicators were measured at the initial investigation in 2013. Compared with those without ascites, cases with ascites had significantly higher levels of D-dimer (0.71±2.44 μg/L vs 0.48±2.12 μg/L, P =0.005), as well ALB (44.5 vs 46.2, g/L) and Type IV collagen (50.04 vs 44.50 μg/L). Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses indicated a moderate predictive value of D-dimer by its own area under curve (AUC) of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.54-0.73) and the cutoff value as 0.81 μg/L. Dichotomized by the cutoff level, D-dimer along with other categorical variables generated a prediction model with AUC of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.68-0.89). Risks of patients with specific characteristics in the prediction model were summarized. Our study suggests that the plasma D-dimer level is a reliable predictor for incident ascites in advanced schistosomiasis japonica patients.

Plasma D-dimer Can Effectively Predict the Prospective Occurrence of Ascites in Advanced Schistosomiasis Japonica Patients

PubMed Central

Wu, Xiaoying; Ren, Jianwei; Gao, Zulu; Xu, Yun; Xie, Huiqun; Li, Tingfang; Cheng, Yanhua; Hu, Fei; Liu, Hongyun; Gong, Zhihong; Liang, Jinyi; Shen, Jia; Liu, Zhen; Wu, Feng; Sun, Xi; Niu, Zhongzheng; Ning, An

2017-01-01

China still has more than 30,000 patients of advanced schistosomiasis while new cases being reported consistently. D-dimer is a fibrin degradation product. As ascites being the dominating symptom in advanced schistosomiasis, the present study aimed to explore a prediction model of ascites with D-dimer and other clinical easy-achievable indicators. A case-control study nested in a prospective cohort was conducted in schistosomiasis-endemic area of southern China. A total of 291 patients of advanced schistosomiasis were first investigated in 2013 and further followed in 2014. Information on clinical history, physical examination, and abdominal ultrasonography, including the symptom of ascites was repeatedly collected. Result showed 44 patients having ascites. Most of the patients’ ascites were confined in the kidney area with median area of 20 mm2. The level of plasma D-dimer and pertinent liver function indicators were measured at the initial investigation in 2013. Compared with those without ascites, cases with ascites had significantly higher levels of D-dimer (0.71±2.44 μg/L vs 0.48±2.12 μg/L, P=0.005), as well ALB (44.5 vs 46.2, g/L) and Type IV collagen (50.04 vs 44.50 μg/L). Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses indicated a moderate predictive value of D-dimer by its own area under curve (AUC) of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.54–0.73) and the cutoff value as 0.81 μg/L. Dichotomized by the cutoff level, D-dimer along with other categorical variables generated a prediction model with AUC of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.68–0.89). Risks of patients with specific characteristics in the prediction model were summarized. Our study suggests that the plasma D-dimer level is a reliable predictor for incident ascites in advanced schistosomiasis japonica patients. PMID:28506039

Acoustic prediction methods for the NASA generalized advanced propeller analysis system (GAPAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padula, S. L.; Block, P. J. W.

1984-01-01

Classical methods of propeller performance analysis are coupled with state-of-the-art Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP:) techniques to yield a versatile design tool, the NASA Generalized Advanced Propeller Analysis System (GAPAS) for the novel quiet and efficient propellers. ANOPP is a collection of modular specialized programs. GAPAS as a whole addresses blade geometry and aerodynamics, rotor performance and loading, and subsonic propeller noise.

Microphysical growth state of ice particles and large-scale electrical structure of clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Earle; Zhang, Renyi; Boccippio, Dennis

1994-01-01

Cloud temperature, liquid water content, and vertical air velocity are all considered in evaluating the microphysical growth state of ice phase precipitation particles in the atmosphere. The large-scale observations taken together with in situ measurements indicated that the most prevalent growth condition for large ice particles in active convection is sublimation during riming, whereas the most prevalent growth condition in stratiform precipitation is vapor deposition. The large-scale electrical observations lend further support to the idea that particles warmed by riming into sublimation charge negatively and particles in vapor deposition charge positively in collisions with small ice particles.

A Model for Particle Microphysics,Turbulent Mixing, and Radiative Transfer in the Stratocumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layer and Comparisons with Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, Andrew S.; Toon, Owen B.; Hobbs, Peter V.

1995-01-01

A detailed 1D model of the stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer is described. The model has three coupled components: a microphysics module that resolves the size distributions of aerosols and cloud droplets, a turbulence module that treats vertical mixing between layers, and a multiple wavelength radiative transfer module that calculates radiative heating rates and cloud optical properties. The results of a 12-h model simulation reproduce reasonably well the bulk thermodynamics, microphysical properties, and radiative fluxes measured in an approx. 500-m thick, summertime marine stratocumulus cloud layer by Nicholls. However, in this case, the model predictions of turbulent fluxes between the cloud and subcloud layers exceed the measurements. Results of model simulations are also compared to measurements of a marine stratus layer made under gate conditions and with measurements of a high, thin marine stratocumulus layer. The variations in cloud properties are generally reproduced by the model, although it underpredicts the entrainment of overlying air at cloud top under gale conditions. Sensitivities of the model results are explored. The vertical profile of cloud droplet concentration is sensitive to the lower size cutoff of the droplet size distribution due to the presence of unactivated haze particles in the lower region of the modeled cloud. Increases in total droplet concentrations do not always produce less drizzle and more cloud water in the model. The radius of the mean droplet volume does not correlate consistently with drizzle, but the effective droplet radius does. The greatest impacts on cloud properties predicted by the model are produced by halving the width of the size distribution of input condensation nuclei and by omitting the effect of cloud-top radiative cooling on the condensational growth of cloud droplets. The omission of infrared scattering produces noticeable changes in cloud properties. The collection efficiencies for droplets less

Predicting pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer: a systematic review.

PubMed

Ryan, J E; Warrier, S K; Lynch, A C; Ramsay, R G; Phillips, W A; Heriot, A G

2016-03-01

Approximately 20% of patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) for locally advanced rectal cancer achieve a pathological complete response (pCR) while the remainder derive the benefit of improved local control and downstaging and a small proportion show a minimal response. The ability to predict which patients will benefit would allow for improved patient stratification directing therapy to those who are likely to achieve a good response, thereby avoiding ineffective treatment in those unlikely to benefit. A systematic review of the English language literature was conducted to identify pathological factors, imaging modalities and molecular factors that predict pCR following chemoradiotherapy. PubMed, MEDLINE and Cochrane Database searches were conducted with the following keywords and MeSH search terms: 'rectal neoplasm', 'response', 'neoadjuvant', 'preoperative chemoradiation', 'tumor response'. After review of title and abstracts, 85 articles addressing the prediction of pCR were selected. Clear methods to predict pCR before chemoradiotherapy have not been defined. Clinical and radiological features of the primary cancer have limited ability to predict response. Molecular profiling holds the greatest potential to predict pCR but adoption of this technology will require greater concordance between cohorts for the biomarkers currently under investigation. At present no robust markers of the prediction of pCR have been identified and the topic remains an area for future research. This review critically evaluates existing literature providing an overview of the methods currently available to predict pCR to nCRT for locally advanced rectal cancer. The review also provides a comprehensive comparison of the accuracy of each modality. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio predicts survival in patients with advanced cholangiocarcinoma on chemotherapy.

PubMed

Lee, Ban Seok; Lee, Sang Hyub; Son, Jun Hyuk; Jang, Dong Kee; Chung, Kwang Hyun; Lee, Yoon Suk; Paik, Woo Hyun; Ryu, Ji Kon; Kim, Yong-Tae

2016-02-01

The blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is reported to be a prognostic marker in several cancers. However, the prognostic role of NLR in patients with advanced cholangiocarcinoma on chemotherapy is unknown. A total of 221 patients with pathologically confirmed locally advanced or metastatic cholangiocarcinoma receiving first-line palliative chemotherapy were enrolled. Associations between baseline clinical and laboratory variables including NLR and survival were investigated. Patients were classified into two groups according to the NLR level (≤ 5 vs. >5). Median overall survival (OS) and time to progression (TTP) in patients with NLR ≤ 5 were 10.9 and 6.7 months, respectively, and 6.8 and 4.1 months in patients with NLR > 5 (P < 0.001, P = 0.002, respectively). In multivariate analysis, number of cycles of chemotherapy was a significant predictor of longer OS (HR 0.86, P < 0.001), whereas adverse prognostic factors for OS were CA 19-9 > 300 (HR 1.43, P = 0.025), CEA > 5 (HR 1.44, P = 0.029), higher stage (HR 1.69, P = 0.004), and NLR > 5 (HR 1.87, P < 0.001). NLR > 5 was also associated with reduced TTP (HR 1.66, P = 0.007). Among 50 patients with initial NLR > 5, 33 patients had NLR ≤ 5 after two cycles of chemotherapy and they had significantly better survival than the others (HR 0.48, P = 0.015). NLR independently predicts survival in patients with advanced cholangiocarcinoma undergoing chemotherapy. Considering cost-effectiveness and easy availability, NLR may be a useful biomarker for prognosis prediction.

Coupling of the microphysical and optical properties of an Arctic nimbostratus cloud during the ASTAR 2004 experiment: Implications for light-scattering modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jourdan, Olivier; Mioche, Guillaume; Garrett, Timothy J.; SchwarzenböCk, Alfons; Vidot, JéRôMe; Xie, Yu; Shcherbakov, Valery; Yang, Ping; Gayet, Jean-FrançOis

2010-12-01

Airborne measurements in an Arctic mixed-phase nimbostratus cloud were conducted in Spitsbergen on 21 May 2004 during the international Arctic Study of Tropospheric Aerosol, Clouds and Radiation (ASTAR) campaign. The in situ instrument suite aboard the Alfred Wegener Institute Polar 2 aircraft included a polar nephelometer (PN), a cloud particle imager (CPI), a Nevzorov probe, and a standard PMS 2DC probe to measure the cloud particle single-scattering properties (at a wavelength of 0.8 μm), and the particle morphology and size, as well as the in-cloud partitioning of ice/water content. The main objective of this work is to present a technique based on principal component analysis and light-scattering modeling to link the microphysical properties of cloud particles to their optical characteristics. The technique is applied to the data collected during the 21 May case study where a wide variety of ice crystal shapes and liquid water fractions were observed at temperatures ranging from -1°C to -12°C. CPI measurements highlight the presence of large supercooled water droplets with diameters close to 500 μm. Although the majority of ice particles were found to have irregular shapes, columns and needles were the prevailing regular habits between -3°C and -6°C while stellars and plates were observed at temperatures below -8°C. The implementation of the principal component analysis of the PN scattering phase function measurements revealed representative optical patterns that were consistent with the particle habit classification derived from the CPI. This indicates that the synergy between the CPI and the PN can be exploited to link the microphysical and shape properties of cloud particles to their single-scattering characteristics. Using light-scattering modeling, we have established equivalent microphysical models based on a limited set of free parameters (roughness, mixture of idealized particle habits, and aspect ratio of ice crystals) that reproduce the main

Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry V.; Schifer, Nicholas A.; Briggs, Maxwell H.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASCs convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a particular operating frequency, hot end and cold end temperatures, and specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. Microporous bulk insulation is used in the ground support test hardware to minimize the loss of thermal energy from the electric heat source to the environment. The insulation package is characterized before operation to predict how much heat will be absorbed by the convertor and how much will be lost to the environment during operation. In an effort to validate these predictions, numerous tasks have been performed, which provided a more accurate value for net heat input into the ASCs. This test and modeling effort included: (a) making thermophysical property measurements of test setup materials to provide inputs to the numerical models, (b) acquiring additional test data that was collected during convertor tests to provide numerical models with temperature profiles of the test setup via thermocouple and infrared measurements, (c) using multidimensional numerical models (computational fluid dynamics code) to predict net heat input of an operating convertor, and (d) using validation test hardware to provide direct comparison of numerical results and validate the multidimensional numerical models used to predict convertor net heat input. This effort produced high fidelity ASC net heat input predictions, which were successfully validated using

Advanced Multi-Moment Microphysics for Precipitation and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Improvement within COAMPS

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-30

of predicting up to three moments (total number concentration, mass, and the 6th-moment reflectivity factor) of hydrometeor hydrometeor particle size...R. Novak, F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, J. J. Levit , C. B. Entwistle, T. Jensen, J. S. Kain, M. C. Coniglio, and R. S. Schneider, 2010: An overview

Retrievals of aerosol optical and microphysical properties from Imaging Polar Nephelometer scattering measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed Espinosa, W.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Dubovik, Oleg; Ziemba, Luke; Beyersdorf, Andreas; Orozco, Daniel; Schuster, Gregory; Lapyonok, Tatyana; Fuertes, David; Vanderlei Martins, J.

2017-03-01

A method for the retrieval of aerosol optical and microphysical properties from in situ light-scattering measurements is presented and the results are compared with existing measurement techniques. The Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties (GRASP) is applied to airborne and laboratory measurements made by a novel polar nephelometer. This instrument, the Polarized Imaging Nephelometer (PI-Neph), is capable of making high-accuracy field measurements of phase function and degree of linear polarization, at three visible wavelengths, over a wide angular range of 3 to 177°. The resulting retrieval produces particle size distributions (PSDs) that agree, within experimental error, with measurements made by commercial optical particle counters (OPCs). Additionally, the retrieved real part of the refractive index is generally found to be within the predicted error of 0.02 from the expected values for three species of humidified salt particles, with a refractive index that is well established. The airborne measurements used in this work were made aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) field campaign, and the inversion of this data represents the first aerosol retrievals of airborne polar nephelometer data. The results provide confidence in the real refractive index product, as well as in the retrieval's ability to accurately determine PSD, without assumptions about refractive index that are required by the majority of OPCs.

Improved NASA-ANOPP Noise Prediction Computer Code for Advanced Subsonic Propulsion Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kontos, K. B.; Janardan, B. A.; Gliebe, P. R.

1996-01-01

Recent experience using ANOPP to predict turbofan engine flyover noise suggests that it over-predicts overall EPNL by a significant amount. An improvement in this prediction method is desired for system optimization and assessment studies of advanced UHB engines. An assessment of the ANOPP fan inlet, fan exhaust, jet, combustor, and turbine noise prediction methods is made using static engine component noise data from the CF6-8OC2, E(3), and QCSEE turbofan engines. It is shown that the ANOPP prediction results are generally higher than the measured GE data, and that the inlet noise prediction method (Heidmann method) is the most significant source of this overprediction. Fan noise spectral comparisons show that improvements to the fan tone, broadband, and combination tone noise models are required to yield results that more closely simulate the GE data. Suggested changes that yield improved fan noise predictions but preserve the Heidmann model structure are identified and described. These changes are based on the sets of engine data mentioned, as well as some CFM56 engine data that was used to expand the combination tone noise database. It should be noted that the recommended changes are based on an analysis of engines that are limited to single stage fans with design tip relative Mach numbers greater than one.

Investigation of Microphysical Parameters within Winter and Summer Type Precipitation Events over Mountainous [Complex] Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stalker, James R.; Bossert, James E.

1997-12-31

In this study we investigate complex terrain effects on precipitation with RAMS for both in winter and summer cases from a microphysical perspective. We consider a two dimensional east-west topographic cross section in New Mexico representative of the Jemez mountains on the west and the Sangre de Cristo mountains on the east. Located between these two ranges is the Rio Grande Valley. In these two dimensional experiments, variations in DSDs are considered to simulate total precipitation that closely duplicate observed precipitation.

Cloudy - simulating the non-equilibrium microphysics of gas and dust, and its observed spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferland, Gary J.

2014-01-01

Cloudy is an open-source plasma/spectral simulation code, last described in the open-access journal Revista Mexicana (Ferland et al. 2013, 2013RMxAA..49..137F). The project goal is a complete simulation of the microphysics of gas and dust over the full range of density, temperature, and ionization that we encounter in astrophysics, together with a prediction of the observed spectrum. Cloudy is one of the more widely used theory codes in astrophysics with roughly 200 papers citing its documentation each year. It is developed by graduate students, postdocs, and an international network of collaborators. Cloudy is freely available on the web at trac.nublado.org, the user community can post questions on http://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/cloudy_simulations/info, and summer schools are organized to learn more about Cloudy and its use (http://cloud9.pa.uky.edu gary/cloudy/CloudySummerSchool/). The code’s widespread use is possible because of extensive automatic testing. It is exercised over its full range of applicability whenever the source is changed. Changes in predicted quantities are automatically detected along with any newly introduced problems. The code is designed to be autonomous and self-aware. It generates a report at the end of a calculation that summarizes any problems encountered along with suggestions of potentially incorrect boundary conditions. This self-monitoring is a core feature since the code is now often used to generate large MPI grids of simulations, making it impossible for a user to verify each calculation by hand. I will describe some challenges in developing a large physics code, with its many interconnected physical processes, many at the frontier of research in atomic or molecular physics, all in an open environment.

Advanced Multi-Moment Microphysics for Precipitation and Tropical Cyclone Forecast Improvement within COAMPS

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

capable of predicting up to three moments of hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSDs) inside the Navy’s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale...Sobash, P. T. Marsh, A. R. Dean, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. Du, D. R. Novak, F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, J. J. Levit , C. B. Entwistle, T. Jensen

Advances in Predictive Toxicology for Discovery Safety through High Content Screening.

PubMed

Persson, Mikael; Hornberg, Jorrit J

2016-12-19

High content screening enables parallel acquisition of multiple molecular and cellular readouts. In particular the predictive toxicology field has progressed from the advances in high content screening, as more refined end points that report on cellular health can be studied in combination, at the single cell level, and in relatively high throughput. Here, we discuss how high content screening has become an essential tool for Discovery Safety, the discipline that integrates safety and toxicology in the drug discovery process to identify and mitigate safety concerns with the aim to design drug candidates with a superior safety profile. In addition to customized mechanistic assays to evaluate target safety, routine screening assays can be applied to identify risk factors for frequently occurring organ toxicities. We discuss the current state of high content screening assays for hepatotoxicity, cardiotoxicity, neurotoxicity, nephrotoxicity, and genotoxicity, including recent developments and current advances.

Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer.

PubMed

Petersen, Japke F; Stuiver, Martijn M; Timmermans, Adriana J; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

2018-05-01

TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442 patients with T3T4N0N+M0 larynx cancer. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping samples and externally validated on patient data from five external centers (n = 770). The main outcome was performance of the model as tested by discrimination, calibration, and the ability to distinguish risk groups based on tertiles from the derivation dataset. The model performance was compared to a model based on T and N classification only. We included age, gender, T and N classification, and subsite as prognostic variables in the standard model. After external validation, the standard model had a significantly better fit than a model based on T and N classification alone (C statistic, 0.59 vs. 0.55, P < .001). The model was able to distinguish well among three risk groups based on tertiles of the risk score. Adding treatment modality to the model did not decrease the predictive power. As a post hoc analysis, we tested the added value of comorbidity as scored by American Society of Anesthesiologists score in a subsample, which increased the C statistic to 0.68. A risk prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer, consisting of readily available clinical variables, gives more accurate estimations of the estimated 5-year survival rate when compared to a model based on T and N classification alone. 2c. Laryngoscope, 128:1140-1145, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

A Mechanistic Understanding of North American Monsoon and Microphysical Properties of Ice Particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erfani, Ehsan

A mechanistic understanding of the North American Monsoon (NAM) is suggested by incorporating local- and synoptic-scale processes. The local-scale mechanism describes the effect sea surface temperature (SST) in Gulf of California (GC) and how it contributes to the low-level moisture during the 2004 NAM. Before NAM onset, the strong low-level temperature inversion exists over the GC, but this inversion weakens with increasing GC SST and generally disappears once SSTs exceed 29.5°C, allowing the moist air, trapped in the MBL, to mix with free tropospheric air. This leads to a deep, moist layer that can be transported toward the NAM regions to produce thunderstorms. The synoptic scale mechanism is based on climatologies from 1983 to 2010 and explains that the warmest SSTs moving up the coast contributes to NAM convection and atmospheric heating, and consequently advancing the position of the anticyclone and the region of descent northward. In order to improve microphysical properties of ice clouds, this study develops self-consistent second order polynomial mass- and projected area-dimension (m-D and A-D) expressions that are valid over a much larger size range, compared to traditional power laws. Such expressions can easily be reduced to power laws for the size range of interest, in order to use in cloud and climate models. This was done by combining field measurements of individual ice particle m and D with airborne optical probe measurements of D, A and estimates of m. The resulting m-D and A-D expressions are functions of temperature and cloud type (synoptic vs. anvil), and are in good agreement with m-D power laws developed from recent field studies. These expressions also appear representative for heavily rimed dendrites occurring over the Sierra Nevada Mountains. By using the m-D field measurements of rimed and unrimed particles, and by developing theoretical methods, an approach was suggested for calculating rimed m and A, which has the benefit of accounting

Computational methods in the prediction of advanced subsonic and supersonic propeller induced noise: ASSPIN users' manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunn, M. H.; Tarkenton, G. M.

1992-01-01

This document describes the computational aspects of propeller noise prediction in the time domain and the use of high speed propeller noise prediction program ASSPIN (Advanced Subsonic and Supersonic Propeller Induced Noise). These formulations are valid in both the near and far fields. Two formulations are utilized by ASSPIN: (1) one is used for subsonic portions of the propeller blade; and (2) the second is used for transonic and supersonic regions on the blade. Switching between the two formulations is done automatically. ASSPIN incorporates advanced blade geometry and surface pressure modelling, adaptive observer time grid strategies, and contains enhanced numerical algorithms that result in reduced computational time. In addition, the ability to treat the nonaxial inflow case has been included.

Unsteady blade-surface pressures on a large-scale advanced propeller: Prediction and data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

1990-01-01

An unsteady 3-D Euler analysis technique is employed to compute the flow field of an advanced propeller operating at an angle of attack. The predicted blade pressure waveforms are compared with wind tunnel data at two Mach numbers, 0.5 and 0.2. The inflow angle is three degrees. For an inflow Mach number of 0.5, the predicted pressure response is in fair agreement with data: the predicted phases of the waveforms are in close agreement with data while the magnitudes are underpredicted. At the low Mach number of 0.2 (takeoff), the numerical solution shows the formation of a leading edge vortex which is in qualitative agreement with measurements. However, the highly nonlinear pressure response measured on the blade suction surface is not captured in the present inviscid analysis.

Unsteady blade surface pressures on a large-scale advanced propeller - Prediction and data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

1990-01-01

An unsteady three dimensional Euler analysis technique is employed to compute the flowfield of an advanced propeller operating at an angle of attack. The predicted blade pressure waveforms are compared with wind tunnel data at two Mach numbers, 0.5 and 0.2. The inflow angle is three degrees. For an inflow Mach number of 0.5, the predicted pressure response is in fair agreement with data: the predicted phases of the waveforms are in close agreement with data while the magnitudes are underpredicted. At the low Mach number of 0.2 (take-off) the numerical solution shows the formation of a leading edge vortex which is in qualitative agreement with measurements. However, the highly nonlinear pressure response measured on the blade suction surface is not captured in the present inviscid analysis.

Classification of TP53 mutations and HPV predict survival in advanced larynx cancer.

PubMed

Scheel, Adam; Bellile, Emily; McHugh, Jonathan B; Walline, Heather M; Prince, Mark E; Urba, Susan; Wolf, Gregory T; Eisbruch, Avraham; Worden, Francis; Carey, Thomas E; Bradford, Carol

2016-09-01

Assess tumor suppressor p53 (TP53) functional mutations in the context of other biomarkers in advanced larynx cancer. Prospective analysis of pretreatment tumor TP53, human papillomavirus (HPV), Bcl-xL, and cyclin D1 status in stage III and IV larynx cancer patients in a clinical trial. TP53 exons 4 through 9 from 58 tumors were sequenced. Mutations were grouped using three classifications based on their expected function. Each functional group was analyzed for response to induction chemotherapy, time to surgery, survival, HPV status, p16INK4a, Bcl-xl, and cyclin D1 expression. TP53 mutations were found in 22 of 58 (37.9%) patients with advanced larynx cancer, including missense mutations in 13 of 58 (22.4%) patients, nonsense mutations in four of 58 (6.9%), and deletions in five of 58 (8.6%). High-risk HPV was found in 20 of 52 (38.5%) tumors. A classification based on Evolutionary Action score of p53 (EAp53) distinguished missense mutations with high risk for decreased survival from low-risk mutations (P = 0.0315). A model including this TP53 classification, HPV status, cyclin D1, and Bcl-xL staining significantly predicts survival (P = 0.0017). EAp53 functional classification of TP53 mutants and biomarkers predict survival in advanced larynx cancer. NA. Laryngoscope, 126:E292-E299, 2016. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change.

PubMed

Spottiswoode, Claire N; Tøttrup, Anders P; Coppack, Timothy

2006-12-22

Global warming has led to earlier spring arrival of migratory birds, but the extent of this advancement varies greatly among species, and it remains uncertain to what degree these changes are phenotypically plastic responses or microevolutionary adaptations to changing environmental conditions. We suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation, since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection opposing sexual selection for early migration, which would predict greatest advancement in species with stronger female choice. We test this hypothesis comparatively by investigating the degree of long-term change in spring passage at two ringing stations in northern Europe in relation to a synthetic estimate of the strength of female choice, composed of degree of extra-pair paternity, relative testes size and degree of sexually dichromatic plumage colouration. We found that species with a stronger index of sexual selection have indeed advanced their date of spring passage to a greater extent. This relationship was stronger for the changes in the median passage date of the whole population than for changes in the timing of first-arriving individuals, suggesting that selection has not only acted on protandrous males. These results suggest that sexual selection may have an impact on the responses of organisms to climate change, and knowledge of a species' mating system might help to inform attempts at predicting these.

Seasonal cycles on Titan from a Coupled Aerosol Microphysical and Global Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, Erik J.; Toon, Owen B.

2010-04-01

Understanding the aerosols on Titan is imperative for understanding the atmosphere as a whole. The aerosols affect the albedo, optical depth, and heating and cooling rates which in turn affects the winds on Titan. Correctly representing them in atmospheric models is crucial to understanding this atmosphere. Several groups have used GCMs to model Titan's atmosphere. Hourdin et al. (1995) were able to reproduce the super-rotating prograde winds. Rannou et al. (2004) found the aerosols accumulated at the poles, which increased the temperature gradient. The increased temperature gradient intensified the zonal winds. Friedson et al. (2009) produced a three- dimensional model for Titan using the NCAR CAM3 model, to which we coupled the aerosol microphysics model CARMA. Until now, there has not been a three- dimensional model that couples radiation, dynamics and aerosol microphysics to study the atmospheric properties of Titan. We have also made the aerosols produced by CARMA interactive with the radiation code in CAM. Preliminary results show that this model is capable of reproducing the seasonal changes in aerosols on Titan and many of the associated phenomena. For instance, the radiatively interactive aerosols are lifted more in the summer hemisphere than the non-interactive aerosols, which is necessary to reproduce the observed seasonal cycle of the albedo (Hutzell et al 1996). However, treating aerosols as spheres with Mie theory is inconsistent with laboratory and observational data that suggest the aerosols are fractal aggregates. We are currently incorporating fractal particle physics into the model. Changing the particles to fractals will affect the radiative properties of the particles, their distribution in the atmosphere, and should improve our fits to the data.

Retrieval of Macro- and Micro-Physical Properties of Oceanic Hydrosols from Polarimetric Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ibrahim, Amir; Gilerson, Alexander; Chowdhary, Jacek; Ahmed, Samir

2016-01-01

Remote sensing has mainly relied on measurements of scalar radiance and its spectral and angular features to retrieve micro- and macro-physical properties of aerosols/hydrosols. However, it is recognized that measurements that include the polarimetric characteristics of light provide more intrinsic information about particulate scattering. To take advantage of this, we used vector radiative transfer (VRT) simulations and developed an analytical relationship to retrieve the macro and micro-physical properties of the oceanic hydrosols. Specifically, we investigated the relationship between the observed degree of linear polarization (DoLP) and the ratio of attenuation-to- absorption coefficients (c/a) in water, from which the scattering coefficient can be readily computed (b equals c minus a), after retrieving a. This relationship was parameterized for various scattering geometries, including sensor zenith/azimuth angles relative to the Sun's principal plane, and for varying Sun zenith angles. An inversion method was also developed for the retrieval of the microphysical properties of hydrosols, such as the bulk refractive index and the particle size distribution. The DoLP vs c/a relationship was tested and validated against in-situ measurements of underwater light polarization obtained by a custom-built polarimeter and measurements of the coefficients a and c, obtained using an in-water WET (Western Environmental Technologies) Labs ac-s (attenuation coefficients In-Situ Spectrophotometer) instrument package. These measurements confirmed the validity of the approach, with retrievals of attenuation coefficients showing a high coefficient of determination depending on the wavelength. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the DoLP at the Top of Atmosphere (TOA) over coastal waters showing the possibility of polarimetric remote sensing application for ocean color.

Advancements in Electromagnetic Wave Backscattering Simulations: Applications in Active Lidar Remote Sensing Involving Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, L.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric remote sensing based on the Lidar technique fundamentally relies on knowledge of the backscattering of light by particulate matters in the atmosphere. This talk starts with a review of the current capabilities of electromagnetic wave scattering simulations to determine the backscattering optical properties of irregular particles, such as the backscatterer and depolarization ratio. This will be followed by a discussion of possible pitfalls in the relevant simulations. The talk will then be concluded with reports on the latest advancements in computational techniques. In addition, we summarize the laws of the backscattering optical properties of aerosols with respect to particle geometries, particle sizes, and mixing rules. These advancements will be applied to the analysis of the Lidar observation data to reveal the state and possible microphysical processes of various aerosols.

Relationship between macroscopic and microphysical properties for mixed-phase and ice clouds over the Southern Ocean in ORCAS campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diao, M.; Jensen, J. B.

2017-12-01

Mixed-phase and ice clouds play very important roles in regulating the atmospheric radiation over the Southern Ocean. Previously, in-situ observations over this remote region are limited, and a few of the available observation-based analyses mainly focused on the cloud microphysical properties. The relationship between macroscopic and microphysical properties for both mixed-phase and ice clouds have not been thoroughly investigated based on in-situ observations. In this work, the aircraft-based observations from the NSF O2/N2 Ratio and CO2 Airborne Southern Ocean (ORCAS) field campaign (Jan - Feb 2016) will be used to analyze the cloud macroscopic properties on the microscale to mesoscale, including the distributions of cloud chord length, the patchiness of clouds, and the spatial ratios of adjacent cloud segments in mixed phase and pure ice phase. In addition, these macroscopic properties will be analyzed in relation to the relative humidity (RH) background, such as the average and maximum RH inside clouds, as well as the probability density function (PDF) of in-cloud RH. We found that the clouds with larger horizontal scales are often associated with larger magnitudes of average and maximum in-cloud RH values. In addition, when decomposing the contributions from the spatial variabilities of water vapor and temperature to the variability of RH, the water vapor heterogeneities are found to have the most dominant impact on RH variability. Sensitivities of the cloud macroscopic and microphysical properties to the horizontal resolutions of the observations will be shown, including the impacts on the patchiness of clouds, cloud fraction, frequencies of ice supersaturation, and the PDFs of RH. These sensitivity analyses will provide useful information on the comparisons among multi-scale observations and simulations.

Prediction of 30-day morbidity after primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Gerestein, C G; Nieuwenhuyzen-de Boer, G M; Eijkemans, M J; Kooi, G S; Burger, C W

2010-01-01

Treatment in advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is based on primary cytoreductive surgery followed by platinum-based chemotherapy. Successful cytoreduction to minimal residual tumour burden is the most important determinant of prognosis. However, extensive surgical procedures to achieve maximal debulking are inevitably associated with postoperative morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study is to determine predictors of 30-day morbidity after primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC. All patients in the South Western part of the Netherlands who underwent primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC between January 2004 and December 2007 were identified from the Rotterdam Cancer Registry database. All peri- and postoperative complications within 30 days after surgery were registered and classified according to the definitions of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Programme (NSQIP). To investigate independent predictors of 30-day morbidity, a Cox proportional hazards model with backward stepwise elimination was utilised. The identified predictors were entered into a nomogram. Two hundred and ninety-three patients entered the study protocol. Optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 136 (46%) patients. 30-day morbidity was seen in 99 (34%) patients. Postoperative morbidity could be predicted by age (P=0.007; odds ratio [OR] 1.034), WHO performance status (P=0.046; OR 1.757), extent of surgery (P=0.1308; OR=2.101), and operative time (P=0.017; OR 1.007) with an optimism corrected c-statistic of 0.68. 30-day morbidity could be predicted by age, WHO performance status, operative time and extent of surgery. The generated nomogram could be valuable for predicting operative risk in the individual patient.

Intercomparison and Evaluation of Global Aerosol Microphysical Properties Among Aerocom Models of a Range of Complexity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, G. W.; Carslaw, K. S.; Reddington, C. L.; Pringle, K. J.; Schulz, M.; Asmi, A.; Spracklen, D. V.; Ridley, D. A.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Lee, L. A.;

Raman Spectroscopy and Microphysics of Single PSC Precursor Particles Suspended in a Quadrupole Trap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonnenfroh, D. M.; Hunter, A. J.; Rawlins, W. T.

2001-12-01

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) consist primarily of solid nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles, which are thought to nucleate via HNO3 uptake on background sulfuric acid particles at temperatures below 195 K. The mechanism for this process is uncertain, and depends on whether the sulfuric acid particles are solid or liquid at these temperatures. Previous results from laboratory and field measurements are mixed; our previous single-particle laboratory experiments showed that binary H2SO4/H2O particles at stratospheric compositions are essentially metastable in the liquid phase when cooled to PSC temperatures. Currently, we are investigating the detailed microphysics of binary (H2SO4/H2O) and ternary (HNO3/H2SO4/H2O) single particles suspended in an electrodynamic levitator, using optical elastic scattering and Raman spectroscopy to observe changes in phase and composition. Single-particle Raman spectra for supercooled binary particles exhibit spectral distributions which alter markedly with decreasing temperature down to 190 K. The variations signify increasing dissociation of HSO4(-) to SO4(-2) with decreasing temperature, consistent with measurements for bulk solutions. Upon gradual warming of supercooled liquid binary particles, some of them freeze briefly in a narrow "window" of the phase diagram, near 210 K and 60 weight per cent H2SO4. We will discuss the Raman spectroscopy and microphysical behavior of the liquid and frozen particles for both the binary and ternary systems. This research was supported by the NASA Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Program.

The predictive value of MRI in detecting thyroid gland invasion in patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma.

PubMed

Lin, Peiliang; Huang, Xiaoming; Zheng, Chushan; Cai, Qian; Guan, Zhong; Liang, Faya; Zheng, Yiqing

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in detecting thyroid gland invasion (TGI) in patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma. In a retrospective chart review, 41 patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma underwent MRI scan before total laryngectomy and ipsilateral or bilateral thyroidectomy during the past 5 years. The MRI findings were compared with the postoperative pathological results. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated. Among the 41 patients, 3 had thyroid gland invasion in postoperative pathological results. MRI correctly predicted the absence of TGI in 37 of 38 patients and TGI in all 3 patients. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of MRI were 100.0, 97.4, 75.0, and 100 %, respectively, with the diagnostic accuracy of 97.6 %. In consideration of the high negative predictive value of MRI, it may help surgeons selectively preserve thyroid gland in total laryngectomy and reduce the incidence of hypothyroidism and hypoparathyroidism postoperatively.

Uniwavelength lidar sensitivity to spherical aerosol microphysical properties for the interpretation of Lagrangian stratospheric observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jumelet, Julien; David, Christine; Bekki, Slimane; Keckhut, Philippe

2009-01-01

The determination of stratospheric particle microphysical properties from multiwavelength lidar, including Rayleigh and/or Raman detection, has been widely investigated. However, most lidar systems are uniwavelength operating at 532 nm. Although the information content of such lidar data is too limited to allow the retrieval of the full size distribution, the coupling of two or more uniwavelength lidar measurements probing the same moving air parcel may provide some meaningful size information. Within the ORACLE-O3 IPY project, the coordination of several ground-based lidars and the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) space-borne lidar is planned during measurement campaigns called MATCH-PSC (Polar Stratospheric Clouds). While probing the same moving air masses, the evolution of the measured backscatter coefficient (BC) should reflect the variation of particles microphysical properties. A sensitivity study of 532 nm lidar particle backscatter to variations of particles size distribution parameters is carried out. For simplicity, the particles are assumed to be spherical (liquid) particles and the size distribution is represented with a unimodal log-normal distribution. Each of the four microphysical parameters (i.e. log-normal size distribution parameters, refractive index) are analysed separately, while the three others are remained set to constant reference values. Overall, the BC behaviour is not affected by the initial values taken as references. The total concentration (N0) is the parameter to which BC is least sensitive, whereas it is most sensitive to the refractive index (m). A 2% variation of m induces a 15% variation of the lidar BC, while the uncertainty on the BC retrieval can also reach 15%. This result underlines the importance of having both an accurate lidar inversion method and a good knowledge of the temperature for size distribution retrieval techniques. The standard deviation ([sigma]) is the second

Radiative-dynamical and microphysical processes of thin cirrus clouds controlling humidity of air entering the stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinh, Tra; Fueglistaler, Stephan

2016-04-01

Thin cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) are of great interest due to their role in the control of water vapor and temperature in the TTL. Previous research on TTL cirrus clouds has focussed mainly on microphysical processes, specifically the ice nucleation mechanism and dehydration efficiency. Here, we use a cloud resolving model to analyse the sensitivity of TTL cirrus characteristics and impacts with respect to microphysical and radiative processes. A steady-state TTL cirrus cloud field is obtained in the model forced with dynamical conditions typical for the TTL (2-dimensional setup with a Kelvin-wave temperature perturbation). Our model results show that the dehydration efficiency (as given by the domain average relative humidity in the layer of cloud occurrence) is relatively insensitive to the ice nucleation mechanism, i.e. homogeneous versus heterogeneous nucleation. Rather, TTL cirrus affect the water vapor entering the stratosphere via an indirect effect associated with the cloud radiative heating and dynamics. Resolving the cloud radiative heating and the radiatively induced circulations approximately doubles the domain average ice mass. The cloud radiative heating is proportional to the domain average ice mass, and the observed increase in domain average ice mass induces a domain average temperature increase of a few Kelvin. The corresponding increase in water vapor entering the stratosphere is estimated to be about 30 to 40%.

A depolarisation lidar-based method for the determination of liquid-cloud microphysical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, D. P.; Klein Baltink, H.; Henzing, J. S.; de Roode, S. R.; Siebesma, A. P.

2015-01-01

The fact that polarisation lidars measure a depolarisation signal in liquid clouds due to the occurrence of multiple scattering is well known. The degree of measured depolarisation depends on the lidar characteristics (e.g. wavelength and receiver field of view) as well as the cloud macrophysical (e.g. cloud-base altitude) and microphysical (e.g. effective radius, liquid water content) properties. Efforts seeking to use depolarisation information in a quantitative manner to retrieve cloud properties have been undertaken with, arguably, limited practical success. In this work we present a retrieval procedure applicable to clouds with (quasi-)linear liquid water content (LWC) profiles and (quasi-)constant cloud-droplet number density in the cloud-base region. Thus limiting the applicability of the procedure allows us to reduce the cloud variables to two parameters (namely the derivative of the liquid water content with height and the extinction at a fixed distance above cloud base). This simplification, in turn, allows us to employ a fast and robust optimal-estimation inversion using pre-computed look-up tables produced using extensive lidar Monte Carlo (MC) multiple-scattering simulations. In this paper, we describe the theory behind the inversion procedure and successfully apply it to simulated observations based on large-eddy simulation (LES) model output. The inversion procedure is then applied to actual depolarisation lidar data corresponding to a range of cases taken from the Cabauw measurement site in the central Netherlands. The lidar results were then used to predict the corresponding cloud-base region radar reflectivities. In non-drizzling condition, it was found that the lidar inversion results can be used to predict the observed radar reflectivities with an accuracy within the radar calibration uncertainty (2-3 dBZ). This result strongly supports the accuracy of the lidar inversion results. Results of a comparison between ground-based aerosol number

A depolarisation lidar based method for the determination of liquid-cloud microphysical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, D. P.; Klein Baltink, H.; Henzing, J. S.; de Roode, S. R.; Siebesma, A. P.

2014-09-01

The fact that polarisation lidars measure a depolarisation signal in liquid clouds due to the occurrence of multiple-scattering is well-known. The degree of measured depolarisation depends on the lidar characteristics (e.g. wavelength and receiver field-of-view) as well as the cloud macrophysical (e.g. liquid water content) and microphysical (e.g. effective radius) properties. Efforts seeking to use depolarisation information in a quantitative manner to retrieve cloud properties have been undertaken with, arguably, limited practical success. In this work we present a retrieval procedure applicable to clouds with (quasi-)linear liquid water content (LWC) profiles and (quasi-)constant cloud droplet number density in the cloud base region. Thus limiting the applicability of the procedure allows us to reduce the cloud variables to two parameters (namely the derivative of the liquid water content with height and the extinction at a fixed distance above cloud-base). This simplification, in turn, allows us to employ a fast and robust optimal-estimation inversion using pre-computed look-up-tables produced using extensive lidar Monte-Carlo multiple-scattering simulations. In this paper, we describe the theory behind the inversion procedure and successfully apply it to simulated observations based on large-eddy simulation model output. The inversion procedure is then applied to actual depolarisation lidar data corresponding to a range of cases taken from the Cabauw measurement site in the central Netherlands. The lidar results were then used to predict the corresponding cloud-base region radar reflectivities. In non-drizzling condition, it was found that the lidar inversion results can be used to predict the observed radar reflectivities with an accuracy within the radar calibration uncertainty (2-3 dBZ). This result strongly supports the accuracy of the lidar inversion results. Results of a comparison between ground-based aerosol number concentration and lidar-derived cloud

A Depolarisation lidar based method for the determination of liquid-cloud microphysical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, David; Klein Baltink, Henk; Henzing, Bas; de Roode, Stephen; Siebesma, Pier

2015-04-01

The fact that polarisation lidars measure a~depolarisation signal in liquid clouds due to the occurrence of multiple-scattering is well-known. The degree of measured depolarisation depends on the lidar characteristics (e.g. wavelength and receiver field-of-view) as well as the cloud macrophysical (e.g. cloud base altitude) and microphysical (e.g. effective radius, liquid water content) properties. Efforts seeking to use depolarisation information in a~quantitative manner to retrieve cloud properties have been undertaken with, arguably, limited practical success. In this work we present a~retrieval procedure applicable to clouds with (quasi-)linear liquid water content (LWC) profiles and (quasi-)constant cloud droplet number density in the cloud base region. Thus limiting the applicability of the procedure allows us to reduce the cloud variables to two parameters (namely the derivative of the liquid water content with height and the extinction at a~fixed distance above cloud-base). This simplification, in turn, allows us to employ a~fast and robust optimal-estimation inversion using pre-computed look-up-tables produced using extensive lidar Monte-Carlo multiple-scattering simulations. In this paper, we describe the theory behind the inversion procedure and successfully apply it to simulated observations based on large-eddy simulation model output. The inversion procedure is then applied to actual depolarisation lidar data corresponding to a~range of cases taken from the Cabauw measurement site in the central Netherlands. The lidar results were then used to predict the corresponding cloud-base region radar reflectivities. In non-drizzling condition, it was found that the lidar inversion results can be used to predict the observed radar reflectivities with an accuracy within the radar calibration uncertainty (2--3 dBZ). This result strongly supports the accuracy of the lidar inversion results. Results of a~comparison between ground-based aerosol number concentration

The Role of Moist Processes in the Intrinsic Predictability of Indian Ocean Cyclones

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taraphdar, Sourav; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The role of moist processes and the possibility of error cascade from cloud scale processes affecting the intrinsic predictable time scale of a high resolution convection permitting model within the environment of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Indian region are investigated. Consistent with past studies of extra-tropical cyclones, it is demonstrated that moist processes play a major role in forecast error growth which may ultimately limit the intrinsic predictability of the TCs. Small errors in the initial conditions may grow rapidly and cascades from smaller scales to the larger scales through strong diabatic heating and nonlinearities associated with moist convection.more » Results from a suite of twin perturbation experiments for four tropical cyclones suggest that the error growth is significantly higher in cloud permitting simulation at 3.3 km resolutions compared to simulations at 3.3 km and 10 km resolution with parameterized convection. Convective parameterizations with prescribed convective time scales typically longer than the model time step allows the effects of microphysical tendencies to average out so convection responds to a smoother dynamical forcing. Without convective parameterizations, the finer-scale instabilities resolved at 3.3 km resolution and stronger vertical motion that results from the cloud microphysical parameterizations removing super-saturation at each model time step can ultimately feed the error growth in convection permitting simulations. This implies that careful considerations and/or improvements in cloud parameterizations are needed if numerical predictions are to be improved through increased model resolution. Rapid upscale error growth from convective scales may ultimately limit the intrinsic mesoscale predictability of the TCs, which further supports the needs for probabilistic forecasts of these events, even at the mesoscales.« less

The microphysics of collisionless shock waves.

PubMed

Marcowith, A; Bret, A; Bykov, A; Dieckman, M E; Drury, L O'C; Lembège, B; Lemoine, M; Morlino, G; Murphy, G; Pelletier, G; Plotnikov, I; Reville, B; Riquelme, M; Sironi, L; Novo, A Stockem

2016-04-01

Collisionless shocks, that is shocks mediated by electromagnetic processes, are customary in space physics and in astrophysics. They are to be found in a great variety of objects and environments: magnetospheric and heliospheric shocks, supernova remnants, pulsar winds and their nebulæ, active galactic nuclei, gamma-ray bursts and clusters of galaxies shock waves. Collisionless shock microphysics enters at different stages of shock formation, shock dynamics and particle energization and/or acceleration. It turns out that the shock phenomenon is a multi-scale non-linear problem in time and space. It is complexified by the impact due to high-energy cosmic rays in astrophysical environments. This review adresses the physics of shock formation, shock dynamics and particle acceleration based on a close examination of available multi-wavelength or in situ observations, analytical and numerical developments. A particular emphasis is made on the different instabilities triggered during the shock formation and in association with particle acceleration processes with regards to the properties of the background upstream medium. It appears that among the most important parameters the background magnetic field through the magnetization and its obliquity is the dominant one. The shock velocity that can reach relativistic speeds has also a strong impact over the development of the micro-instabilities and the fate of particle acceleration. Recent developments of laboratory shock experiments has started to bring some new insights in the physics of space plasma and astrophysical shock waves. A special section is dedicated to new laser plasma experiments probing shock physics.

The microphysics of collisionless shock waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcowith, A.; Bret, A.; Bykov, A.; Dieckman, M. E.; O'C Drury, L.; Lembège, B.; Lemoine, M.; Morlino, G.; Murphy, G.; Pelletier, G.; Plotnikov, I.; Reville, B.; Riquelme, M.; Sironi, L.; Stockem Novo, A.

2016-04-01

Collisionless shocks, that is shocks mediated by electromagnetic processes, are customary in space physics and in astrophysics. They are to be found in a great variety of objects and environments: magnetospheric and heliospheric shocks, supernova remnants, pulsar winds and their nebulæ, active galactic nuclei, gamma-ray bursts and clusters of galaxies shock waves. Collisionless shock microphysics enters at different stages of shock formation, shock dynamics and particle energization and/or acceleration. It turns out that the shock phenomenon is a multi-scale non-linear problem in time and space. It is complexified by the impact due to high-energy cosmic rays in astrophysical environments. This review adresses the physics of shock formation, shock dynamics and particle acceleration based on a close examination of available multi-wavelength or in situ observations, analytical and numerical developments. A particular emphasis is made on the different instabilities triggered during the shock formation and in association with particle acceleration processes with regards to the properties of the background upstream medium. It appears that among the most important parameters the background magnetic field through the magnetization and its obliquity is the dominant one. The shock velocity that can reach relativistic speeds has also a strong impact over the development of the micro-instabilities and the fate of particle acceleration. Recent developments of laboratory shock experiments has started to bring some new insights in the physics of space plasma and astrophysical shock waves. A special section is dedicated to new laser plasma experiments probing shock physics.

Quantification of uncertainty in aerosol optical thickness retrieval arising from aerosol microphysical model and other sources, applied to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Määttä, A.; Laine, M.; Tamminen, J.; Veefkind, J. P.

2014-05-01

Satellite instruments are nowadays successfully utilised for measuring atmospheric aerosol in many applications as well as in research. Therefore, there is a growing need for rigorous error characterisation of the measurements. Here, we introduce a methodology for quantifying the uncertainty in the retrieval of aerosol optical thickness (AOT). In particular, we concentrate on two aspects: uncertainty due to aerosol microphysical model selection and uncertainty due to imperfect forward modelling. We apply the introduced methodology for aerosol optical thickness retrieval of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura satellite, launched in 2004. We apply statistical methodologies that improve the uncertainty estimates of the aerosol optical thickness retrieval by propagating aerosol microphysical model selection and forward model error more realistically. For the microphysical model selection problem, we utilise Bayesian model selection and model averaging methods. Gaussian processes are utilised to characterise the smooth systematic discrepancies between the measured and modelled reflectances (i.e. residuals). The spectral correlation is composed empirically by exploring a set of residuals. The operational OMI multi-wavelength aerosol retrieval algorithm OMAERO is used for cloud-free, over-land pixels of the OMI instrument with the additional Bayesian model selection and model discrepancy techniques introduced here. The method and improved uncertainty characterisation is demonstrated by several examples with different aerosol properties: weakly absorbing aerosols, forest fires over Greece and Russia, and Sahara desert dust. The statistical methodology presented is general; it is not restricted to this particular satellite retrieval application.

A novel 2-step approach combining the NAFLD fibrosis score and liver stiffness measurement for predicting advanced fibrosis.

PubMed

Chan, Wah-Kheong; Nik Mustapha, Nik Raihan; Mahadeva, Sanjiv

2015-10-01

The non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score (NFS) is indeterminate in a proportion of NAFLD patients. Combining the NFS with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) may improve prediction of advanced fibrosis. We aim to evaluate the NFS and LSM in predicting advanced fibrosis in NAFLD patients. The NFS was calculated and LSM obtained for consecutive adult NAFLD patients scheduled for liver biopsy. The accuracy of predicting advanced fibrosis using either modality and in combination were assessed. An algorithm combining the NFS and LSM was developed from a training cohort and subsequently tested in a validation cohort. There were 101 and 46 patients in the training and validation cohort, respectively. In the training cohort, the percentages of misclassifications using the NFS alone, LSM alone, LSM alone (with grey zone), both tests for all patients and a 2-step approach using LSM only for patients with indeterminate and high NFS were 5.0, 28.7, 2.0, 2.0 and 4.0 %, respectively. The percentages of patients requiring liver biopsy were 30.7, 0, 36.6, 36.6 and 18.8 %, respectively. In the validation cohort, the percentages of misclassifications were 8.7, 28.3, 2.2, 2.2 and 8.7 %, respectively. The percentages of patients requiring liver biopsy were 28.3, 0, 41.3, 43.5 and 19.6 %, respectively. The novel 2-step approach further reduced the number of patients requiring a liver biopsy whilst maintaining the accuracy to predict advanced fibrosis. The combination of NFS and LSM for all patients provided no apparent advantage over using either of the tests alone.

A statistical data analysis and plotting program for cloud microphysics experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, A. J.

1981-01-01

The analysis software developed for atmospheric cloud microphysics experiments conducted in the laboratory as well as aboard a KC-135 aircraft is described. A group of four programs was developed and implemented on a Hewlett Packard 1000 series F minicomputer running under HP's RTE-IVB operating system. The programs control and read data from a MEMODYNE Model 3765-8BV cassette recorder, format the data on the Hewlett Packard disk subsystem, and generate statistical data (mean, variance, standard deviation) and voltage and engineering unit plots on a user selected plotting device. The programs are written in HP FORTRAN IV and HP ASSEMBLY Language with the graphics software using the HP 1000 Graphics. The supported plotting devices are the HP 2647A graphics terminal, the HP 9872B four color pen plotter, and the HP 2608A matrix line printer.

The chemical and microphysical properties of secondary organic aerosols from Holm Oak emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang-Yona, N.; Rudich, Y.; Mentel, Th. F.; Bohne, A.; Buchholz, A.; Kiendler-Scharr, A.; Kleist, E.; Spindler, C.; Tillmann, R.; Wildt, J.

2010-08-01

The Mediterranean region is expected to experience substantial climatic change in the next 50 years. But, possible effects of climate change on biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions as well as on the formation of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) produced from these VOC are yet unexplored. To address such issues, the effects of temperature on the VOC emissions of Mediterranean Holm Oak and small Mediterranean stand of Wild Pistacio, Aleppo Pine, and Palestine Oak have been studied in the Jülich plant aerosol atmosphere chamber. For Holm Oak the optical and microphysical properties of the resulting SOA were investigated. Monoterpenes dominated the VOC emissions from Holm Oak (97.5%) and Mediterranean stand (97%). Higher temperatures enhanced the overall VOC emission but with different ratios of the emitted species. The amount of SOA increased linearly with the emission strength with a fractional mass yield of 6.0±0.6%, independent of the detailed emission pattern. The investigated particles were highly scattering with no absorption abilities. Their average hygroscopic growth factor of 1.13±0.03 at 90% RH with a critical diameter of droplet activation was 100±4 nm at a supersaturation of 0.4%. All microphysical properties did not depend on the detailed emission pattern, in accordance with an invariant O/C ratio (0.57(+0.03/-0.1)) of the SOA observed by high resolution aerosol mass spectrometry. The increase of Holm oak emissions with temperature (≈20% per degree) was stronger than e.g. for Boreal tree species (≈10% per degree). The SOA yield for Mediterranean trees determined here is similar as for Boreal trees. Increasing mean temperature in Mediterranean areas could thus have a stronger impact on BVOC emissions and SOA formation than in areas with Boreal forests.

On the Land-Ocean Contrast of Tropical Convection and Microphysics Statistics Derived from TRMM Satellite Signals and Global Storm-Resolving Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matsui, Toshihisa; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Satoh, Masaki; Hashino, Tempei; Kubota, Takuji

2016-01-01

A 14-year climatology of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) collocated multi-sensor signal statistics reveal a distinct land-ocean contrast as well as geographical variability of precipitation type, intensity, and microphysics. Microphysics information inferred from the TRMM precipitation radar and Microwave Imager (TMI) show a large land-ocean contrast for the deep category, suggesting continental convective vigor. Over land, TRMM shows higher echo-top heights and larger maximum echoes, suggesting taller storms and more intense precipitation, as well as larger microwave scattering, suggesting the presence of morelarger frozen convective hydrometeors. This strong land-ocean contrast in deep convection is invariant over seasonal and multi-year time-scales. Consequently, relatively short-term simulations from two global storm-resolving models can be evaluated in terms of their land-ocean statistics using the TRMM Triple-sensor Three-step Evaluation via a satellite simulator. The models evaluated are the NASA Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) and the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Cloud Atmospheric Model (NICAM). While both simulations can represent convective land-ocean contrasts in warm precipitation to some extent, near-surface conditions over land are relatively moisture in NICAM than MMF, which appears to be the key driver in the divergent warm precipitation results between the two models. Both the MMF and NICAM produced similar frequencies of large CAPE between land and ocean. The dry MMF boundary layer enhanced microwave scattering signals over land, but only NICAM had an enhanced deep convection frequency over land. Neither model could reproduce a realistic land-ocean contrast in in deep convective precipitation microphysics. A realistic contrast between land and ocean remains an issue in global storm-resolving modeling.

Seismogenic Potential of a Gouge-filled Fault and the Criterion for Its Slip Stability: Constraints From a Microphysical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jianye; Niemeijer, A. R.

2017-12-01

Physical constraints for the parameters of the rate-and-state friction (RSF) laws have been mostly lacking. We presented such constraints based on a microphysical model and demonstrated the general applicability to granular fault gouges deforming under hydrothermal conditions in a companion paper. In this paper, we examine the transition velocities for contrasting frictional behavior (i.e., strengthening to weakening and vice versa) and the slip stability of the model. The model predicts a steady state friction coefficient that increases with slip rate at very low and high slip rates and decreases in between. This allows the transition velocities to be theoretically obtained and the unstable slip regime (Vs→w < V < Vw→s) to be defined. In a spring-slider configuration, linear perturbation analysis provides analytical expressions of the critical stiffness (Kc) below which unstable slip occurs and of the critical recurrence wavelength (Wc) and static stress drop (Δμs) associated with self-sustained oscillations or stick slips. Numerical implementation of the model predicts frictional behavior that exhibits consecutive transitions from stable sliding, via periodic oscillations, to unstable stick slips with decreasing elastic stiffness or loading rate, and gives Kc, Wc, Δμs, Vs→w, and Vw→s values that are consistent with the analytical predictions. General scaling relations of these parameters given by the model are consistent with previous interpretations in the context of RSF laws and agree well with previous experiments, testifying to high validity. From these physics-based expressions that allow a more reliable extrapolation to natural conditions, we discuss the seismological implications for natural faults and present topics for future work.

Advancing Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the Polar Regions and Beyond during The Year of Polar Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Kirstin; Goessling, Helge; Hoke, Winfried; Kirchhoff, Katharina; Jung, Thomas

2017-04-01

Environmental changes in polar regions open up new opportunities for economic and societal operations such as vessel traffic related to scientific, fishery and tourism activities, and in the case of the Arctic also enhanced resource development. The availability of current and accurate weather and environmental information and forecasts will therefore play an increasingly important role in aiding risk reduction and safety management around the poles. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) has been established by the World Meteorological Organization's World Weather Research Programme as the key activity of the ten-year Polar Prediction Project (PPP; see more on www.polarprediction.net). YOPP is an internationally coordinated initiative to significantly advance our environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, supporting improved weather and climate services. Scheduled to take place from mid-2017 to mid-2019, the YOPP core phase covers an extended period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities in the Arctic and Antarctic, on a wide range of time scales from hours to seasons. The Year of Polar Prediction will entail periods of enhanced observational and modelling campaigns in both polar regions. With the purpose to close the gaps in the conventional polar observing systems in regions where the observation network is sparse, routine observations will be enhanced during Special Observing Periods for an extended period of time (several weeks) during YOPP. This will allow carrying out subsequent forecasting system experiments aimed at optimizing observing systems in the polar regions and providing insight into the impact of better polar observations on forecast skills in lower latitudes. With various activities and the involvement of a wide range of stakeholders, YOPP will contribute to the knowledge base needed to managing the opportunities and risks that come with polar climate change.

Arctic Mixed-phase Clouds Simulated by a Cloud-Resolving Model: Comparison with ARM Observations and Sensitivity to Microphysics Parameterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Kuan-Man; Luo, Yali; Morrison, Hugh; Mcfarquhar, G.M.

2008-01-01

Single-layer mixed-phase stratiform (MPS) Arctic clouds, which formed under conditions of large surface heat flux combined with general subsidence during a subperiod of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), are simulated with a cloud resolving model (CRM). The CRM is implemented with either an advanced two-moment (M05) or a commonly used one-moment (L83) bulk microphysics scheme and a state-of-the-art radiative transfer scheme. The CONTROL simulation, that uses the M05 scheme and observed aerosol size distribution and ice nulei (IN) number concentration, reproduces the magnitudes and vertical structures of cloud liquid water content (LWC), total ice water content (IWC), number concentration and effective radius of cloud droplets as suggested by the M-PACE observations. It underestimates ice crystal number concentrations by an order of magnitude and overestimates effective radius of ice crystals by a factor of 2-3. The OneM experiment, that uses the L83 scheme, produces values of liquid water path (LWP) and ice plus snow water path (ISWP) that were about 30% and 4 times, respectively, of those produced by the CONTROL. Its vertical profile of IWC exhibits a bimodal distribution in contrast to the constant distribution of IWC produced in the CONTROL and observations.

Ice Nucleation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer: Implications for Cirrus Occurrence, Cirrus Microphysical Properties, and Dehydration of Air Entering the Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, Eric; Kaercher, Bernd; Ueyama, Rei; Pfister, Leonhard

2017-01-01

Recent laboratory experiments have advanced our understanding of the physical properties and ice nucleating abilities of aerosol particles atlow temperatures. In particular, aerosols containing organics will transition to a glassy state at low temperatures, and these glassy aerosols are moderately effective as ice nuclei. These results have implications for ice nucleation in the cold Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL; 13-19 km). We have developed a detailed cloud microphysical model that includes heterogeneous nucleation on a variety of aerosol types and homogeneous freezing of aqueous aerosols. This model has been incorporated into one-dimensional simulations of cirrus and water vapor driven by meteorological analysis temperature and wind fields. The model includes scavenging of ice nuclei by sedimenting ice crystals. The model is evaluated by comparing the simulated cloud properties and water vapor concentrations with aircraft and satellite measurements. In this presentation, I will discuss the relative importance of homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation, the impact of ice nuclei scavenging as air slowly ascends through the TTL, and the implications for the final dehydration of air parcels crossing the tropical cold-point tropopause and entering the tropical stratosphere.

Microphysical Properties of Single Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA) Particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovelli, Grazia; Song, Young-Chul; Pereira, Kelly; Hamilton, Jacqueline; Topping, David; Reid, Jonathan

2017-04-01

Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA) deriving from the oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) can account for a substantial fraction of the overall atmospheric aerosol mass.[1] Therefore, the investigation of SOA microphysical properties is crucial to better comprehend their role in the atmospheric processes they are involved in. This works describes a single particle approach to accurately characterise the hygroscopic response, the optical properties and the gas-particle partitioning kinetics of water and semivolatile components for laboratory generated SOA. SOA was generated from the oxidation of different VOCs precursors (e.g. α-pinene, toluene) in a photo-chemical flow reactor, which consists of a temperature and relative humidity controlled 300 L polyvinyl fluoride bag. Known VOC, NOx and ozone concentrations are introduced in the chamber and UV irradiation is performed by means of a Hg pen-ray. SOA samples were collected with an electrical low pressure impactor, wrapped in aluminium foil and kept refrigerated at -20°C. SOA samples were extracted in a 1:1 water/methanol mixture. Single charged SOA particles were generated from the obtained solution using a microdispenser and confined within an electrodynamic balance (EDB), where they sit in a T (250-320 K) and RH (0-95%) controlled nitrogen flow. Suspended droplets are irradiated with a 532 nm laser and the evolving angularly resolved scattered light is used to keep track of changes in droplet size. One of the key features of this experimental approach is that very little SOA solution is required because of the small volumes needed to load the dispensers (<20 μL). A number of diverse experiments were performed in order to characterise different microphysical properties of SOA. The equilibrium hygroscopic response of SOA was determined with comparative evaporation kinetics experiments (CK-EDB) of suspended probe and sample droplets.[2] The variation of the refractive index of SOA droplets following to

Sensitivity of clear-sky direct radiative effect of the aerosol to micro-physical properties by using 6SV radiative transfer model: preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassani, Cristiana; Tirelli, Cecilia; Manzo, Ciro; Pietrodangelo, Adriana; Curci, Gabriele

2015-04-01

The aerosol micro-physical properties are crucial to analyze their radiative impact on the Earth's radiation budget [IPCC, 2007]. The 6SV model, last generation of the Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) radiative transfer code [Kotchenova et al., 2007; Vermote et al., 1997] has been used to perform physically-based atmospheric correction of hyperspectral airborne and aircraft remote sensing data [Vermote et al., 2009; Bassani et al. 2010; Tirelli et al., 2014]. The atmospheric correction of hyperspectral data has been shown to be sensitive to the aerosol micro-physical properties, as reported in Bassani et al., 2012. The role of the aerosol micro-physical properties on the accuracy of the atmospheric correction of hyperspectral data acquired over water and land targets is investigated within the framework of CLAM-PHYM (Coasts and Lake Assessment and Monitoring by PRISMA HYperspectral Mission) and PRIMES (Synergistic use of PRISMA products with high resolution meteo-chemical simulations and their validation on ground and from satellite) projects, both funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI). In this work, the results of the radiative field of the Earth/Atmosphere coupled system simulated by using 6SV during the atmospheric correction of hyperspectral data are presented. The analysis of the clear-sky direct radiative effect is performed considering the aerosol micro-physical properties used to define the aerosol model during the atmospheric correction process. In particular, the AERONET [Holben et al., 1998] and FLEXAOD [Curci et al., 2014] micro-physical properties are used for each image to evaluate the contribution of the size distribution and refractive index of the aerosol type on the surface reflectance and on the direct radiative forcing. The results highlight the potential of the hyperspectral remote sensing data for atmospheric studies as well as for environmental studies. Currently, the future hyperspectral missions, such as the

ADVANCIS Score Predicts Acute Kidney Injury After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Acute Coronary Syndrome.

PubMed

Fan, Pei-Chun; Chen, Tien-Hsing; Lee, Cheng-Chia; Tsai, Tsung-Yu; Chen, Yung-Chang; Chang, Chih-Hsiang

2018-01-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI), a common and crucial complication of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) after receiving percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), is associated with increased mortality and adverse outcomes. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for incident AKI after PCI for ACS. We included 82,186 patients admitted for ACS and receiving PCI between 1997 and 2011 from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database and randomly divided them into a training cohort (n = 57,630) and validation cohort (n = 24,656) for risk model development and validation, respectively. Risk factor analysis revealed that age, diabetes mellitus, ventilator use, prior AKI, number of intervened vessels, chronic kidney disease (CKD), intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) use, cardiogenic shock, female sex, prior stroke, peripheral arterial disease, hypertension, and heart failure were significant risk factors for incident AKI after PCI for ACS. The reduced model, ADVANCIS, comprised 8 clinical parameters (age, diabetes mellitus, ventilator use, prior AKI, number of intervened vessels, CKD, IABP use, cardiogenic shock), with a score scale ranging from 0 to 22, and performed comparably with the full model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 87.4% vs 87.9%). An ADVANCIS score of ≥6 was associated with higher in-hospital mortality risk. In conclusion, the ADVANCIS score is a novel, simple, robust tool for predicting the risk of incident AKI after PCI for ACS, and it can aid in risk stratification to monitor patient care.

The prediction of progression-free and overall survival in women with an advanced stage of epithelial ovarian carcinoma.

PubMed

Gerestein, C G; Eijkemans, M J C; de Jong, D; van der Burg, M E L; Dykgraaf, R H M; Kooi, G S; Baalbergen, A; Burger, C W; Ansink, A C

2009-02-01

Prognosis in women with ovarian cancer mainly depends on International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage and the ability to perform optimal cytoreductive surgery. Since ovarian cancer has a heterogeneous presentation and clinical course, predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in the individual patient is difficult. The objective of this study was to determine predictors of PFS and OS in women with advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) after primary cytoreductive surgery and first-line platinum-based chemotherapy. Retrospective observational study. Two teaching hospitals and one university hospital in the south-western part of the Netherlands. Women with advanced stage EOC. All women who underwent primary cytoreductive surgery for advanced stage EOC followed by first-line platinum-based chemotherapy between January 1998 and October 2004 were identified. To investigate independent predictors of PFS and OS, a Cox' proportional hazard model was used. Nomograms were generated with the identified predictive parameters. The primary outcome measure was OS and the secondary outcome measures were response and PFS. A total of 118 women entered the study protocol. Median PFS and OS were 15 and 44 months, respectively. Preoperative platelet count (P = 0.007), and residual disease <1 cm (P = 0.004) predicted PFS with a optimism corrected c-statistic of 0.63. Predictive parameters for OS were preoperative haemoglobin serum concentration (P = 0.012), preoperative platelet counts (P = 0.031) and residual disease <1 cm (P = 0.028) with a optimism corrected c-statistic of 0.67. PFS could be predicted by postoperative residual disease and preoperative platelet counts, whereas residual disease, preoperative platelet counts and preoperative haemoglobin serum concentration were predictive for OS. The proposed nomograms need to be externally validated.

Kinematic and Microphysical Significance of Lightning Jumps versus Non-Jump Increases in Total Flash Rate

PubMed Central

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

2017-01-01

Thirty-nine thunderstorms are examined using multiple-Doppler, polarimetric and total lightning observations to understand the role of mixed phase kinematics and microphysics in the development of lightning jumps. This sample size is larger than those of previous studies on this topic. The principal result of this study is that lightning jumps are a result of mixed phase updraft intensification. Larger increases in intense updraft volume (≥ 10 m s−1) and larger changes in peak updraft speed are observed prior to lightning jump occurrence when compared to other non-jump increases in total flash rate. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Rank Sum testing yields p-values ≤0.05, indicating statistical independence between lightning jump and non-jump distributions for these two parameters. Similar changes in mixed phase graupel mass magnitude are observed prior to lightning jumps and non-jump increases in total flash rate. The p-value for graupel mass change is p=0.096, so jump and non-jump distributions for graupel mass change are not found statistically independent using the p=0.05 significance level. Timing of updraft volume, speed and graupel mass increases are found to be 4 to 13 minutes in advance of lightning jump occurrence. Also, severe storms without lightning jumps lack robust mixed phase updrafts, demonstrating that mixed phase updrafts are not always a requirement for severe weather occurrence. Therefore, the results of this study show that lightning jump occurrences are coincident with larger increases in intense mixed phase updraft volume and peak updraft speed than smaller non-jump increases in total flash rate. PMID:29158622

Kinematic and Microphysical Significance of Lightning Jumps versus Non-Jump Increases in Total Flash Rate.

PubMed

Schultz, Christopher J; Carey, Lawrence D; Schultz, Elise V; Blakeslee, Richard J

2017-02-01

Thirty-nine thunderstorms are examined using multiple-Doppler, polarimetric and total lightning observations to understand the role of mixed phase kinematics and microphysics in the development of lightning jumps. This sample size is larger than those of previous studies on this topic. The principal result of this study is that lightning jumps are a result of mixed phase updraft intensification. Larger increases in intense updraft volume (≥ 10 m s -1 ) and larger changes in peak updraft speed are observed prior to lightning jump occurrence when compared to other non-jump increases in total flash rate. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Rank Sum testing yields p-values ≤0.05, indicating statistical independence between lightning jump and non-jump distributions for these two parameters. Similar changes in mixed phase graupel mass magnitude are observed prior to lightning jumps and non-jump increases in total flash rate. The p-value for graupel mass change is p=0.096, so jump and non-jump distributions for graupel mass change are not found statistically independent using the p=0.05 significance level. Timing of updraft volume, speed and graupel mass increases are found to be 4 to 13 minutes in advance of lightning jump occurrence. Also, severe storms without lightning jumps lack robust mixed phase updrafts, demonstrating that mixed phase updrafts are not always a requirement for severe weather occurrence. Therefore, the results of this study show that lightning jump occurrences are coincident with larger increases in intense mixed phase updraft volume and peak updraft speed than smaller non-jump increases in total flash rate.

Kinematic and Microphysical Significance of Lightning Jumps Versus Non-Jump Increases in Total Flash Rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

2017-01-01

Thirty-nine thunderstorms are examined using multiple-Doppler, polarimetric and total lightning observations to understand the role of mixed phase kinematics and microphysics in the development of lightning jumps. This sample size is larger than those of previous studies on this topic. The principal result of this study is that lightning jumps are a result of mixed phase updraft intensification. Larger increases in intense updraft volume greater than or equal to 10 m(sup -1) and larger changes in peak updraft speed are observed prior to lightning jump occurrence when compared to other non-jump increases in total ash rate. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Rank Sum testing yields p-values 0.05, indicating statistical independence between lightning jump and non-jump distributions for these two parameters. Similar changes in mixed phase graupel mass magnitude are observed prior to lightning jumps and non-jump increases in total ash rate. The p-value for graupel mass change is p=0.096, so jump and non-jump distributions for graupel mass change are not found statistically independent using the p=0.05 significance level. Timing of updraft volume, speed and graupel mass increases are found to be 4 to 13 minutes in advance of lightning jump occurrence. Also, severe storms without lightning jumps lack robust mixed phase updrafts, demonstrating that mixed phase updrafts are not always a requirement for severe weather occurrence. Therefore, the results of this study show that lightning jump occurrences are coincident with larger increases in intense mixed phase updraft volume and peak updraft speed than smaller non-jump increases in total ash rate.

Data Mining and Predictive Modeling in Institutional Advancement: How Ten Schools Found Success. Technical Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luperchio, Dan

2009-01-01

This technical report, produced in partnership by the Council for Advancement and Support of Education (CASE) and SPSS Inc., explores the promise of data mining alumni records at educational institutions. Working with individual alumni records from The Johns Hopkins Zanvyl Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, a predictive regression model is…

Derivation of Physical and Optical Properties of Midlatitude Cirrus Ice Crystals for a Size-Resolved Cloud Microphysics Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fridlind, Ann M.; Atlas, Rachel; Van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan; Um, Junshik; McFarquhar, Greg M.; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Lawson, R. Paul

2016-01-01

Single-crystal images collected in mid-latitude cirrus are analyzed to provide internally consistent ice physical and optical properties for a size-resolved cloud microphysics model, including single-particle mass, projected area, fall speed, capacitance, single-scattering albedo, and asymmetry parameter. Using measurements gathered during two flights through a widespread synoptic cirrus shield, bullet rosettes are found to be the dominant identifiable habit among ice crystals with maximum dimension (Dmax) greater than 100µm. Properties are therefore first derived for bullet rosettes based on measurements of arm lengths and widths, then for aggregates of bullet rosettes and for unclassified (irregular) crystals. Derived bullet rosette masses are substantially greater than reported in existing literature, whereas measured projected areas are similar or lesser, resulting in factors of 1.5-2 greater fall speeds, and, in the limit of large Dmax, near-infrared single-scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter (g) greater by approx. 0.2 and 0.05, respectively. A model that includes commonly imaged side plane growth on bullet rosettes exhibits relatively little difference in microphysical and optical properties aside from approx. 0:05 increase in mid-visible g primarily attributable to plate aspect ratio. In parcel simulations, ice size distribution, and g are sensitive to assumed ice properties.

[The third dimension tomography versus cranial X-ray cephalometry to predict maxilla advance by distraction in hypoplastic maxilla].

PubMed

Rosas-Muñoz, Arturo; Soriano-Padilla, Fernando; Rendón-Macías, Mario Enrique

2010-01-01

the osteogenic distraction is the treatment for the correction of the hypoplastic maxilla secondary to the repair of a cleft lip-palate. Its planning is based on articulated models. Our objective was to describe the accuracy of three-dimensional Cephalometry (CT3D) for projecting jaw displacement. three patients with hypoplastic maxilla. Interventions estimation of the advance required of lateral maxilla through Cephalometry of skull (CLC), CT3D and an articulated model (gold standard). Two months after distraction finalized the advance predicted was compared. the error of the advance projection in each patient was smaller with the CT3D versus CLC (+1, +1 and +1 mm versus -10, -14 and -9mm). Corrections post-distraction were of +25 %, +26 % and +38.4 % on the programmed one. CT3D predicted better the correction (+19 %, +10.8 %, +33.4 % versus CLC: -50 %; -60.8 % and -34.6 %). Chewing alterations were not seen in any patient. the planning of the necessary advance for distraction in patients with hypoplastic maxilla by CT3D can shorten the time of studies and should be consider as next to the projection of articulated model.

Coupling WRF double-moment 6-class microphysics schemes to RRTMG radiation scheme in weather research forecasting model

DOE PAGES

Bae, Soo Ya; Hong, Song -You; Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny

2016-01-01

A method to explicitly calculate the effective radius of hydrometeors in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) double-moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme is designed to tackle the physical inconsistency in cloud properties between the microphysics and radiation processes. At each model time step, the calculated effective radii of hydrometeors from the WDM6 scheme are linked to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) scheme to consider the cloud effects in radiative flux calculation. This coupling effect of cloud properties between the WDM6 and RRTMG algorithms is examined for a heavy rainfall event in Korea during 25–27 July 2011, and itmore » is compared to the results from the control simulation in which the effective radius is prescribed as a constant value. It is found that the derived radii of hydrometeors in the WDM6 scheme are generally larger than the prescribed values in the RRTMG scheme. Consequently, shortwave fluxes reaching the ground (SWDOWN) are increased over less cloudy regions, showing a better agreement with a satellite image. The overall distribution of the 24-hour accumulated rainfall is not affected but its amount is changed. In conclusion, a spurious rainfall peak over the Yellow Sea is alleviated, whereas the local maximum in the central part of the peninsula is increased.« less

Coupling WRF double-moment 6-class microphysics schemes to RRTMG radiation scheme in weather research forecasting model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bae, Soo Ya; Hong, Song -You; Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny

A method to explicitly calculate the effective radius of hydrometeors in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) double-moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme is designed to tackle the physical inconsistency in cloud properties between the microphysics and radiation processes. At each model time step, the calculated effective radii of hydrometeors from the WDM6 scheme are linked to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) scheme to consider the cloud effects in radiative flux calculation. This coupling effect of cloud properties between the WDM6 and RRTMG algorithms is examined for a heavy rainfall event in Korea during 25–27 July 2011, and itmore » is compared to the results from the control simulation in which the effective radius is prescribed as a constant value. It is found that the derived radii of hydrometeors in the WDM6 scheme are generally larger than the prescribed values in the RRTMG scheme. Consequently, shortwave fluxes reaching the ground (SWDOWN) are increased over less cloudy regions, showing a better agreement with a satellite image. The overall distribution of the 24-hour accumulated rainfall is not affected but its amount is changed. In conclusion, a spurious rainfall peak over the Yellow Sea is alleviated, whereas the local maximum in the central part of the peninsula is increased.« less

Coupling WRF Double-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Schemes to RRTMG Radiation Scheme in Weather Research Forecasting Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bae, Soo Ya; Hong, Song-You; Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny

A method to explicitly calculate the effective radius of hydrometeors in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) double-moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme is designed to tackle the physical inconsistency in cloud properties between the microphysics and radiation processes. At each model time step, the calculated effective radii of hydrometeors from the WDM6 scheme are linked to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) scheme to consider the cloud effects in radiative flux calculation. This coupling effect of cloud properties between the WDM6 and RRTMG algorithms is examined for a heavy rainfall event in Korea during 25–27 July 2011, and itmore » is compared to the results from the control simulation in which the effective radius is prescribed as a constant value. It is found that the derived radii of hydrometeors in the WDM6 scheme are generally larger than the prescribed values in the RRTMG scheme. Consequently, shortwave fluxes reaching the ground (SWDOWN) are increased over less cloudy regions, showing a better agreement with a satellite image. The overall distribution of the 24-hour accumulated rainfall is not affected but its amount is changed. A spurious rainfall peak over the Yellow Sea is alleviated, whereas the local maximum in the central part of the peninsula is increased.« less

Observations of Stratiform Lightning Flashes and Their Microphysical and Kinematic Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, Timothy J.; Williams, Earle

2016-01-01

During the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), combined observations of clouds and precipitation were made from airborne and ground-based in situ and remote sensing platforms. These observations were coordinated for multiple mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that passed over the MC3E domain in northern Oklahoma. Notably, during a storm on 20 May 2011 in situ and remote sensing airborne observations were made near the times and locations of stratiform positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning flashes. These +CGs resulted from extremely large stratiform lightning flashes that were hundreds of km in length and lasted several seconds. This dataset provides an unprecedented look at kinematic and microphysical environments in the vicinity of large, powerful, and long-lived stratiform lightning flashes. We will use this dataset to understand the influence of low liquid water contents (LWCs) in the electrical charging of MCS stratiform regions.

Observations of Stratiform Lightning Flashes and Their Microphysical and Kinematic Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, Timothy J.; Williams, Earle

2017-01-01

During the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), combined observations of clouds and precipitation were made from airborne and ground-based in situ and remote sensing platforms. These observations were coordinated for multiple mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that passed over the MC3E domain in northern Oklahoma. Notably, during a storm on 20 May 2011 in situ and remote sensing airborne observations were made near the times and locations of stratiform positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning flashes. These +CGs resulted from extremely large stratiform lightning flashes that were hundreds of km in length and lasted several seconds. This dataset provides an unprecedented look at kinematic and microphysical environments in the vicinity of large, powerful, and long-lived stratiform lightning flashes. We will use this dataset to understand the influence of low liquid water contents (LWCs) in the electrical charging of MCS stratiform regions.

In search of the best match: probing a multi-dimensional cloud microphysical parameter space to better understand what controls cloud thermodynamic phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Ivy; Storelvmo, Trude

2015-04-01

Substantial improvements have been made to the cloud microphysical schemes used in the latest generation of global climate models (GCMs), however, an outstanding weakness of these schemes lies in the arbitrariness of their tuning parameters, which are also notoriously fraught with uncertainties. Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has neglected to focus on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate the present-day global distribution of thermodynamic phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Liquid droplets and ice crystals not only influence the Earth's radiative budget and hence climate sensitivity via their contrasting optical properties, but also through the effects of their lifetimes in the atmosphere. The current study employs NCAR's CAM5.1, and uses observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP lidar over a 79-month period (November 2007 to June 2014) guide the accurate simulation of the global distribution of mixed-phase clouds in 20∘ latitudinal bands at the -10∘ C, -20∘C and -30∘C isotherms, by adjusting six relevant cloud microphysical tuning parameters in the CAM5.1 via Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling. Among the parameters include those that control the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) timescale for the conversion of supercooled liquid droplets to ice and snow in mixed-phase clouds, the fraction of ice nuclei that nucleate ice in the atmosphere, ice crystal sedimentation speed, and wet scavenging in stratiform and convective clouds. Using a Generalized Linear Model as a variance-based sensitivity analysis, the relative contributions of each of the six parameters are quantified to gain a better understanding of the importance of their individual and two-way interaction effects on the liquid to ice proportion in mixed-phase clouds. Thus, the methodology implemented in the current study aims to search for the combination of cloud microphysical parameters in a GCM that

Noninvasive diagnostics of skin microphysical parameters based on spatially resolved diffuse reflectance spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisenko, S. A.; Kugeiko, M. M.

2013-01-01

The ability to determine noninvasively microphysical parameters (MPPs) of skin characteristic of malignant melanoma was demonstrated. The MPPs were the melanin content in dermis, saturation of tissue with blood vessels, and concentration and effective size of tissue scatterers. The proposed method was based on spatially resolved spectral measurements of skin diffuse reflectance and multiple regressions between linearly independent measurement components and skin MPPs. The regressions were established by modeling radiation transfer in skin with a wide variation of its MPPs. Errors in the determination of skin MPPs were estimated using fiber-optic measurements of its diffuse reflectance at wavelengths of commercially available semiconductor diode lasers (578, 625, 660, 760, and 806 nm) at source-detector separations of 0.23-1.38 mm.

Research Area 3 - Mathematical Sciences: Multiscale Modeling of the Mechanics of Advanced Energetic Materials Relevant to Detonation Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-24

new energetic materials with enhanced energy release rates and reduced sensitivity to unintentional detonation . The following results have been...Mechanics of Advanced Energetic Materials Relevant to Detonation Prediction The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the...modeling, molecular simulations, detonation prediction REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S

Anvil Glaciation in a Deep Cumulus Updraught over Florida Simulated with the Explicit Microphysics Model. I: Impact of Various Nucleation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, Vaughan T. J.; Andronache, Constantin; Sherwood, Steven C.; Bansemer, Aaron; Conant, William C.; Demott, Paul J.; Flagan, Richard C.; Heymsfield, Andy; Jonsson, Haflidi; Poellot, Micheal;

Sensitivity of Aerosol Mass and Microphysics to Treatments of Condensational Growth of Secondary Organic Compounds in a Regional Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topping, D. O.; Lowe, D.; McFiggans, G.; Zaveri, R. A.

2016-12-01

Gas to particle partitioning of atmospheric compounds occurs through disequilibrium mass transfer rather than through instantaneous equilibrium. However, it is common to treat only the inorganic compounds as partitioning dynamically whilst organic compounds, represented by the Volatility Basis Set (VBS), are partitioned instantaneously. In this study we implement a more realistic dynamic partitioning of organic compounds in a regional framework and assess impact on aerosol mass and microphysics. It is also common to assume condensed phase water is only associated with inorganic components. We thus also assess sensitivity to assuming all organics are hygroscopic according to their prescribed molecular weight.For this study we use WRF-Chem v3.4.1, focusing on anthropogenic dominated North-Western Europe. Gas-phase chemistry is represented using CBM-Z whilst aerosol dynamics are simulated using the 8-section MOSAIC scheme, including a 9-bin volatility basis set (VBS) treatment of organic aerosol. Results indicate that predicted mass loadings can vary significantly. Without gas phase ageing of higher volatility compounds, dynamic partitioning always results in lower mass loadings downwind of emission sources. The inclusion of condensed phase water in both partitioning models increases the predicted PM mass, resulting from a larger contribution from higher volatility organics, if present. If gas phase ageing of VBS compounds is allowed to occur in a dynamic model, this can often lead to higher predicted mass loadings, contrary to expected behaviour from a simple non-reactive gas phase box model. As descriptions of aerosol phase processes improve within regional models, the baseline descriptions of partitioning should retain the ability to treat dynamic partitioning of organic compounds. Using our simulations, we discuss whether derived sensitivities to aerosol processes in existing models may be inherently biased.This work was supported by the Nature Environment

A Model for Particle Microphysics, Turbulent Mixing, and Radiative Transfer in the Stratocumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layer and Comparisons with Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, Andrew S.; Toon, Owen B.; Hobbs, Peter V.

1995-01-01

A detailed 1D model of the stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer is described. The model has three coupled components: a microphysics module that resolves the size distributions of aerosols and cloud droplets, a turbulence module that treats vertical mixing between layers, and a multiple wavelength radiative transfer module that calculates radiative heating rates and cloud optical properties. The results of a 12-h model simulation reproduce reasonably well the bulk thermodynamics, microphysical properties, and radiative fluxes measured in an approx. 500-m thick, summertime marine stratocumulus cloud layer by Nicholls. However, in this case, the model predictions of turbulent fluxes between the cloud and subcloud layers exceed the measurements. Results of model simulations are also compared to measurements of a marine stratus layer made under gale conditions and with measurements of a high, thin marine stratocumulus layer. The variations in cloud properties are generally reproduced by the model, although it underpredicts the entrainment of overlying air at cloud top under gale conditions. Sensitivities of the model results are explored. The vertical profile of cloud droplet concentration is sensitive to the lower size cutoff of the droplet size distribution due to the presence of unactivated haze particles in the lower region of the modeled cloud. Increases in total droplet concentrations do not always produce less drizzle and more cloud water in the model. The radius of the mean droplet volume does not correlate consistently with drizzle, but the effective droplet radius does. The greatest impacts on cloud properties predicted by the model are produced by halving the width of the size distribution of input condensation nuclei and by omitting the effect of cloud-top radiative cooling on the condensational growth of cloud droplets. The omission of infrared scattering produces noticeable changes in cloud properties. The collection efficiencies for droplets less

Use of cloud radar Doppler spectra to evaluate stratocumulus drizzle size distributions in large-eddy simulations with size-resolved microphysics

DOE PAGES

Remillard, J.; Fridlind, Ann M.; Ackerman, A. S.; ...

2017-09-20

Here, a case study of persistent stratocumulus over the Azores is simulated using two independent large-eddy simulation (LES) models with bin microphysics, and forward-simulated cloud radar Doppler moments and spectra are compared with observations. Neither model is able to reproduce the monotonic increase of downward mean Doppler velocity with increasing reflectivity that is observed under a variety of conditions, but for differing reasons. To a varying degree, both models also exhibit a tendency to produce too many of the largest droplets, leading to excessive skewness in Doppler velocity distributions, especially below cloud base. Excessive skewness appears to be associated withmore » an insufficiently sharp reduction in droplet number concentration at diameters larger than ~200 μm, where a pronounced shoulder is found for in situ observations and a sharp reduction in reflectivity size distribution is associated with relatively narrow observed Doppler spectra. Effectively using LES with bin microphysics to study drizzle formation and evolution in cloud Doppler radar data evidently requires reducing numerical diffusivity in the treatment of the stochastic collection equation; if that is accomplished sufficiently to reproduce typical spectra, progress toward understanding drizzle processes is likely.« less

Use of cloud radar Doppler spectra to evaluate stratocumulus drizzle size distributions in large-eddy simulations with size-resolved microphysics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Remillard, J.; Fridlind, Ann M.; Ackerman, A. S.

Here, a case study of persistent stratocumulus over the Azores is simulated using two independent large-eddy simulation (LES) models with bin microphysics, and forward-simulated cloud radar Doppler moments and spectra are compared with observations. Neither model is able to reproduce the monotonic increase of downward mean Doppler velocity with increasing reflectivity that is observed under a variety of conditions, but for differing reasons. To a varying degree, both models also exhibit a tendency to produce too many of the largest droplets, leading to excessive skewness in Doppler velocity distributions, especially below cloud base. Excessive skewness appears to be associated withmore » an insufficiently sharp reduction in droplet number concentration at diameters larger than ~200 μm, where a pronounced shoulder is found for in situ observations and a sharp reduction in reflectivity size distribution is associated with relatively narrow observed Doppler spectra. Effectively using LES with bin microphysics to study drizzle formation and evolution in cloud Doppler radar data evidently requires reducing numerical diffusivity in the treatment of the stochastic collection equation; if that is accomplished sufficiently to reproduce typical spectra, progress toward understanding drizzle processes is likely.« less

Microphysical properties of cirrus clouds between 75°N and 25°S derived from extensive airborne in-situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krämer, Martina

2016-04-01

Numerous airborne field campaigns were performed in the last decades to record cirrus clouds microphysical properties. Beside the understanding of the processes of cirrus formation and evolution, an additional motivation for those studies is to provide a database to evaluate the representation of cirrus clouds in global climate models. This is of importance for an improved certainty of climate predictions, which are affected by the poor understanding of the microphysical processes of ice clouds (IPCC, 2013). To this end, the observations should ideally cover the complete respective parameter range and not be influenced by instrumental artifacts. However, due to the difficulties in measuring cirrus properties on fast-flying, high-altitude aircraft, some issues with respect to the measurements %evolved have arisen. In particular, concerns about the relative humidity in and around cirrus clouds and the ice crystal number concentrations were under discussion. Too high ice supersaturations as well as ice number concentrations were often reported. These issues have made more challenging the goal of compiling a large database using data from a suite of different instruments that were used on different campaigns. In this study, we have have addressed these challenges and compiled a large data set of cirrus clouds, sampled during eighteen field campaigns between 75°N and 25°S, representing measurements fulfilling the above mentioned requirements. The most recent campaigns were performed in 2014; namely, the ATTREX campaign with the research aircraft Global Hawk and the ML-CIRRUS and ACRIDICON campaigns with HALO. % The observations include ice water content (IWC: 130 hours of observations), ice crystal numbers (N_ice: 83 hours), ice crystal mean mass size (Rice: 83 hours) and relative humidity (RH_ice) in- and outside of cirrus clouds (78 and 140 hours). % We will present the parameters as PDFs versus temperature and derive medians and core ranges (including the most

Using Directional Emissivity as a Probe of Particle Microphysical Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitman, K. M.; Wolff, M. J.; Bandfield, J. L.; Clayton, G. C.

2002-09-01

Real surfaces are not expected to be diffuse emitters, thus observed emissivity values are a function of viewing geometry. This fact has strong implications for analyses of the MGS/TES emission phase function (EPF) sequences and the upcoming Mars Exploration Rover mini-TES dataset. As reviewed previously [1], in the absence of strong thermal gradients, directional emissivity may be obtained via a combination of reciprocity and Kirchhoff's Law. Here we focus on the potential utility of directional emissivity as a direct probe of surface particle microphysical properties. We explore the effects of particle size and composition on observed radiances in the TES spectral regime using a combination of multiple scattering radiative transfer and Mie scattering algorithms. Comparisons of these simulated spectra to TES EPF observations of typical surface units (e.g., high and low albedo regions) will also be made. This work is supported through NASA grant NAGS-9820 (MJW) and LSU Board of Regents (KMP). [1] Pitman, K.M., et al. (2001), AAS-DPS meeting # 33, # 36.01.

Laboratory study of microphysical and scattering properties of corona-producing cirrus clouds.

PubMed

Järvinen, E; Vochezer, P; Möhler, O; Schnaiter, M

2014-11-01

Corona-producing cirrus clouds were generated and measured under chamber conditions at the AIDA cloud chamber in Karlsruhe. We were able to measure the scattering properties as well as microphysical properties of these clouds under well-defined laboratory conditions in contrast with previous studies of corona-producing clouds, where the measurements were conducted by means of lidar and in situ aircraft measurements. Our results are in agreement with those of previous studies, confirming that corona-producing cirrus clouds consist of a narrow distribution of small (median D_p=19-32  μm) and compact ice crystals. We showed that the ice crystals in these clouds are most likely formed in homogeneous freezing processes. As a result of the homogeneous freezing process, the ice crystals grow uniformly in size; furthermore, the majority of the ice crystals have rough surface features.

Development of a noise prediction model based on advanced fuzzy approaches in typical industrial workrooms.

PubMed

Aliabadi, Mohsen; Golmohammadi, Rostam; Khotanlou, Hassan; Mansoorizadeh, Muharram; Salarpour, Amir

2014-01-01

Noise prediction is considered to be the best method for evaluating cost-preventative noise controls in industrial workrooms. One of the most important issues is the development of accurate models for analysis of the complex relationships among acoustic features affecting noise level in workrooms. In this study, advanced fuzzy approaches were employed to develop relatively accurate models for predicting noise in noisy industrial workrooms. The data were collected from 60 industrial embroidery workrooms in the Khorasan Province, East of Iran. The main acoustic and embroidery process features that influence the noise were used to develop prediction models using MATLAB software. Multiple regression technique was also employed and its results were compared with those of fuzzy approaches. Prediction errors of all prediction models based on fuzzy approaches were within the acceptable level (lower than one dB). However, Neuro-fuzzy model (RMSE=0.53dB and R2=0.88) could slightly improve the accuracy of noise prediction compared with generate fuzzy model. Moreover, fuzzy approaches provided more accurate predictions than did regression technique. The developed models based on fuzzy approaches as useful prediction tools give professionals the opportunity to have an optimum decision about the effectiveness of acoustic treatment scenarios in embroidery workrooms.

Microphysical properties and ice particle morphology of cirrus clouds inferred from combined CALIOP-IIR measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, M.; Iwabuchi, H.; Yang, P.; Tang, G.; King, M. D.; Sekiguchi, M.

2016-12-01

Cirrus clouds cover about 25% of the globe. Knowledge about the optical and microphysical properties of these clouds [particularly, optical thickness (COT) and effective radius (CER)] is essential to radiative forcing assessment. Previous studies of those properties using satellite remote sensing techniques based on observations by passive and active sensors gave inconsistent retrievals. In particular, COTs from the Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) using the unconstrained method are affected by variable particle morphology, especially the fraction of horizontally oriented plate particles (HPLT), because the method assumes the lidar ratio to be constant, which should have different values for different ice particle shapes. More realistic ice particle morphology improves estimates of the optical and microphysical properties. In this study, we develop an optimal estimation-based algorithm to infer cirrus COT and CER in addition to morphological parameters (e.g., Fraction of HPLT) using the observations made by CALIOP and the Infrared Imaging Radiometer (IIR) on the CALIPSO platform. The assumed ice particle model is a mixture of a few habits with variable HPLT. Ice particle single-scattering properties are computed using state-of-the-art light-scattering computational capabilities. Rigorous estimation of uncertainties associated with surface properties, atmospheric gases and cloud heterogeneity is performed. The results based on the present method show that COTs are quite consistent with the MODIS and CALIOP counterparts, and CERs essentially agree with the IIR operational retrievals. The lidar ratio is calculated from the bulk optical properties based on the inferred parameters. The presentation will focus on latitudinal variations of particle morphology and the lidar ratio on a global scale.

Derivation of physical and optical properties of mid-latitude cirrus ice crystals for a size-resolved cloud microphysics model

DOE PAGES

Fridlind, Ann M.; Atlas, Rachel; van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan; ...

2016-06-10

Single-crystal images collected in mid-latitude cirrus are analyzed to provide internally consistent ice physical and optical properties for a size-resolved cloud microphysics model, including single-particle mass, projected area, fall speed, capacitance, single-scattering albedo, and asymmetry parameter. Using measurements gathered during two flights through a widespread synoptic cirrus shield, bullet rosettes are found to be the dominant identifiable habit among ice crystals with maximum dimension ( D max) greater than 100 µm. Properties are therefore first derived for bullet rosettes based on measurements of arm lengths and widths, then for aggregates of bullet rosettes and for unclassified (irregular) crystals. Derived bulletmore » rosette masses are substantially greater than reported in existing literature, whereas measured projected areas are similar or lesser, resulting in factors of 1.5–2 greater fall speeds, and, in the limit of large D max, near-infrared single-scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter ( g) greater by ~0.2 and 0.05, respectively. Furthermore, a model that includes commonly imaged side plane growth on bullet rosettes exhibits relatively little difference in microphysical and optical properties aside from ~0.05 increase in mid-visible g primarily attributable to plate aspect ratio. In parcel simulations, ice size distribution, and g are sensitive to assumed ice properties.« less

Microphysics in the Gamma-Ray Burst Central Engine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janiuk, Agnieszka, E-mail: agnes@cft.edu.pl

We calculate the structure and evolution of a gamma-ray burst central engine where an accreting torus has formed around the newly born black hole. We study the general relativistic, MHD models and we self-consistently incorporate the nuclear equation of state. The latter accounts for the degeneracy of relativistic electrons, protons, and neutrons, and is used in the dynamical simulation, instead of a standard polytropic γ -law. The EOS provides the conditions for the nuclear pressure in the function of density and temperature, which evolve with time according to the conservative MHD scheme. We analyze the structure of the torus andmore » outflowing winds, and compute the neutrino flux emitted through the nuclear reaction balance in the dense and hot matter. We also estimate the rate of transfer of the black-hole rotational energy to the bipolar jets. Finally, we elaborate on the nucleosynthesis of heavy elements in the accretion flow and the wind, through computations of the thermonuclear reaction network. We discuss the possible signatures of the radioactive element decay in the accretion flow. We suggest that further detailed modeling of the accretion flow in the GRB engine, together with its microphysics, may be a valuable tool to constrain the black-hole mass and spin. It can be complementary to the gravitational wave analysis if the waves are detected with an electromagnetic counterpart.« less

Using a Multiwavelength Suite of Microwave Instruments to Investigate the Microphysical Structure of Deep Convective Cores

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Battaglia, A.; Mroz, K.; Lang, Tim; Tridon, F.; Tanelli, S.; Tian, Lin; Heymsfield, Gerald M.

2016-01-01

Due to the large natural variability of its microphysical properties, the characterization of solid precipitation is a longstanding problem. Since in situ observations are unavailable in severe convective systems, innovative remote sensing retrievals are needed to extend our understanding of such systems. This study presents a novel technique able to retrieve the density, mass, and effective diameter of graupel and hail in severe convection through the combination of airborne microwave remote sensing instruments. The retrieval is applied to measure solid precipitation properties within two convective cells observed on 2324 May 2014 over North Carolina during the IPHEx campaign by the NASA ER-2 instrument suite. Between 30 and 40 degrees of freedom of signal are associated with the measurements, which is insufficient to provide full microphysics profiling. The measurements have the largest impact on the retrieval of ice particle sizes, followed by ice water contents. Ice densities are mainly driven by a priori assumptions, though low relative errors in ice densities suggest that in extensive regions of the convective system, only particles with densities larger than 0.4 gcm3 are compatible with the observations. This is in agreement with reports of large hail on the ground and with hydrometeor classification derived from ground-based polarimetric radars observations. This work confirms that multiple scattering generated by large ice hydrometeors in deep convection is relevant for airborne radar systems already at Ku band. A fortiori, multiple scattering will play a pivotal role in such conditions also for Ku band spaceborne radars (e.g., the GPM Dual Precipitation Radar).

The Cloud Ice Mountain Experiment (CIME) 1998: experiment overview and modelling of the microphysical processes during the seeding by isentropic gas expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobrock, Wolfram; Flossmann, Andrea I.; Monier, Marie; Pichon, Jean-Marc; Cortez, Laurent; Fournol, Jean-François; Schwarzenböck, Alfons; Mertes, Stephan; Heintzenberg, Jost; Laj, Paolo; Orsi, Giordano; Ricci, Loretta; Fuzzi, Sandro; Brink, Harry Ten; Jongejan, Piet; Otjes, René

The second field campaign of the Cloud Ice Mountain Experiment (CIME) project took place in February 1998 on the mountain Puy de Dôme in the centre of France. The content of residual aerosol particles, of H 2O 2 and NH 3 in cloud droplets was evaluated by evaporating the drops larger than 5 μm in a Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) and by measuring the residual particle concentration and the released gas content. The same trace species were studied behind a round jet impactor for the complementary interstitial aerosol particles smaller than 5 μm diameter. In a second step of experiments, the ambient supercooled cloud was converted to a mixed phase cloud by seeding the cloud with ice particles by the gas release from pressurised gas bottles. A comparison between the physical and chemical characteristics of liquid drops and ice particles allows a study of the fate of the trace constituents during the presence of ice crystals in the cloud. In the present paper, an overview is given of the CIME 98 experiment and the instrumentation deployed. The meteorological situation during the experiment was analysed with the help of a cloud scale model. The microphysics processes and the behaviour of the scavenged aerosol particles before and during seeding are analysed with the detailed microphysical model ExMix. The simulation results agreed well with the observations and confirmed the assumption that the Bergeron-Findeisen process was dominating during seeding and was influencing the partitioning of aerosol particles between drops and ice crystals. The results of the CIME 98 experiment give an insight on microphysical changes, redistribution of aerosol particles and cloud chemistry during the Bergeron-Findeisen process when acting also in natural clouds.

Retrieval of the scattering and microphysical properties of aerosols from ground-based optical measurements including polarization. I. Method.

PubMed

Vermeulen, A; Devaux, C; Herman, M

2000-11-20

A method has been developed for retrieving the scattering and microphysical properties of atmospheric aerosol from measurements of solar transmission, aureole, and angular distribution of the scattered and polarized sky light in the solar principal plane. Numerical simulations of measurements have been used to investigate the feasibility of the method and to test the algorithm's performance. It is shown that the absorption and scattering properties of an aerosol, i.e., the single-scattering albedo, the phase function, and the polarization for single scattering of incident unpolarized light, can be obtained by use of radiative transfer calculations to correct the values of scattered radiance and polarized radiance for multiple scattering, Rayleigh scattering, and the influence of ground. The method requires only measurement of the aerosol's optical thickness and an estimate of the ground's reflectance and does not need any specific assumption about properties of the aerosol. The accuracy of the retrieved phase function and polarization of the aerosols is examined at near-infrared wavelengths (e.g., 0.870 mum). The aerosol's microphysical properties (size distribution and complex refractive index) are derived in a second step. The real part of the refractive index is a strong function of the polarization, whereas the imaginary part is strongly dependent on the sky's radiance and the retrieved single-scattering albedo. It is demonstrated that inclusion of polarization data yields the real part of the refractive index.

Use of Field Observations for Understanding Controls of Polar Low Cloud Microphysical Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarquhar, G. M.

2016-12-01

Although arctic clouds have a net warming effect on the Arctic surface, their radiative effect is sensitive to cloud microphysical properties, namely the sizes, phases and shapes of cloud particles. Such cloud properties are influenced by the numbers, compositions and sizes of aerosols, meteorological conditions, and surface characteristics. Uncertainty in representing cloud-aerosol interactions in varying environmental conditions and associated feedbacks is a major cause in our lack of understanding of why the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the Earth. Here, the understanding of cloud-aerosol interactions gained from past arctic field experiments is reviewed. Such studies have characterized the structure of single-layer mixed phase clouds that are ubiquitous in the Arctic and investigated different aerosol indirect effect mechanisms acting in these clouds. But, it is still unknown what controls the amount of supercooled water in arctic clouds (especially in complex frequently occurring multi-layer clouds), how probability distributions of cloud properties and radiative heating and their subsequent impact on temperature profiles and underlying snow and sea ice cover vary with aerosol loading and composition in different surface and meteorological conditions, how the composition and concentration of arctic aerosols and cloud microphysical properties vary annually and interannually, and how cloud-aerosol-radiative interactions can be better represented in models with varying temporal and spatial scales. These needs can be addressed in two ways. First, there is a need for comprehensive and routine aircraft, UAV and tethered balloon measurements in the presence of ground, air or space-based remote sensors over a variety of surface and meteorological conditions. Second, planned observational campaigns (the Measurements of Aerosols Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Oceans MARCUS and the Southern Oceans Cloud Radiation Transport Experimental Study SOCRATES

Retrieving cirrus microphysical properties from stellar aureoles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeVore, J. G.; Kristl, J. A.; Rappaport, S. A.

2013-06-01

The aureoles around stars caused by thin cirrus limit nighttime measurement opportunities for ground-based astronomy, but can provide information on high-altitude ice crystals for climate research. In this paper we attempt to demonstrate quantitatively how this works. Aureole profiles can be followed out to ~0.2° from stars and ~0.5° from Jupiter. Interpretation of diffracted starlight is similar to that for sunlight, but emphasizes larger particles. Stellar diffraction profiles are very distinctive, typically being approximately flat out to a critical angle followed by gradually steepening power-law falloff with slope less steep than -3. Using the relationship between the phase function for diffraction and the average Fourier transform of the projected area of complex ice crystals, we show that defining particle size in terms of average projected area normal to the propagation direction of the starlight leads to a simple, analytic approximation representing large-particle diffraction that is nearly independent of crystal habit. A similar analytic approximation for the diffraction aureole allows it to be separated from the point spread function and the sky background. Multiple scattering is deconvolved using the Hankel transform leading to the diffraction phase function. Application of constrained numerical inversion to the phase function then yields a solution for the particle size distribution in the range between ~50 μm and ~400 μm. Stellar aureole measurements can provide one of the very few, as well as least expensive, methods for retrieving cirrus microphysical properties from ground-based observations.

Prediction of helicopter rotor discrete frequency noise: A computer program incorporating realistic blade motions and advanced acoustic formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brentner, K. S.

1986-01-01

A computer program has been developed at the Langley Research Center to predict the discrete frequency noise of conventional and advanced helicopter rotors. The program, called WOPWOP, uses the most advanced subsonic formulation of Farassat that is less sensitive to errors and is valid for nearly all helicopter rotor geometries and flight conditions. A brief derivation of the acoustic formulation is presented along with a discussion of the numerical implementation of the formulation. The computer program uses realistic helicopter blade motion and aerodynamic loadings, input by the user, for noise calculation in the time domain. A detailed definition of all the input variables, default values, and output data is included. A comparison with experimental data shows good agreement between prediction and experiment; however, accurate aerodynamic loading is needed.

The discriminatory capability of existing scores to predict advanced colorectal neoplasia: a prospective colonoscopy study of 5,899 screening participants.

PubMed

Wong, Martin C S; Ching, Jessica Y L; Ng, Simpson; Lam, Thomas Y T; Luk, Arthur K C; Wong, Sunny H; Ng, Siew C; Ng, Simon S M; Wu, Justin C Y; Chan, Francis K L; Sung, Joseph J Y

2016-02-03

We evaluated the performance of seven existing risk scoring systems in predicting advanced colorectal neoplasia in an asymptomatic Chinese cohort. We prospectively recruited 5,899 Chinese subjects aged 50-70 years in a colonoscopy screening programme(2008-2014). Scoring systems under evaluation included two scoring tools from the US; one each from Spain, Germany, and Poland; the Korean Colorectal Screening(KCS) scores; and the modified Asia Pacific Colorectal Screening(APCS) scores. The c-statistics, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values(PPVs), and negative predictive values(NPVs) of these systems were evaluated. The resources required were estimated based on the Number Needed to Screen(NNS) and the Number Needed to Refer for colonoscopy(NNR). Advanced neoplasia was detected in 364 (6.2%) subjects. The German system referred the least proportion of subjects (11.2%) for colonoscopy, whilst the KCS scoring system referred the highest (27.4%). The c-statistics of all systems ranged from 0.56-0.65, with sensitivities ranging from 0.04-0.44 and specificities from 0.74-0.99. The modified APCS scoring system had the highest c-statistics (0.65, 95% C.I. 0.58-0.72). The NNS (12-19) and NNR (5-10) were similar among the scoring systems. The existing scoring systems have variable capability to predict advanced neoplasia among asymptomatic Chinese subjects, and further external validation should be performed.

BH3-only protein Bim predicts advanced stage of cutaneous melanoma.

PubMed

Gambichler, T; Rooms, I; Scholl, L; Stockfleth, E; Stücker, M; Sand, M

2016-11-01

Bim having strong pro-apoptotic effects belongs to the BH3-only proteins of the Bcl-2 protein family and contributes to survival pathways in cancer cells. We aimed to investigate Bim protein expression in cutaneous melanoma (CM). Bim protein expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry in primary and metastatic melanomas and correlated with clinical and histopathological features. The Bim immunoreactivity score of the primary melanomas investigated (4.6 ± 1.5) was significantly (P < 0.0001) higher than that observed in metastases (2.8 ± 1.1). Low Bim expression was significantly associated with primary nodular melanoma type (P = 0.005). Moreover, Bim expression was significantly inversely correlated with tumour thickness (r = -0.36; P = 0.0035), advanced stage of disease (stage III and IV; r = -0.60; P < 0.0001), disease relapse (r = -0.18; P = 0.034) and disease-related death (r = -0.19; P = 0.026). Advanced stage of disease was independently predicted by low Bim expression (P = 0.0010, odds ratio: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.10-0.56) on multivariate analysis; however, Bim was not shown to be an independent predictor for disease relapse (P = 0.40) and disease-related death (P = 0.77). Our data demonstrate that Bim protein expression is significantly inversely correlated with melanoma features that are associated with worse prognosis. We have shown that Bim protein expression in CM is an independent predictor for advanced disease confirming that this pro-apoptotic BH3-only protein might be a potent biomarker and promising therapeutic target. © 2016 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

Assessing regional scale predictions of aerosols, marine stratocumulus, and their interactions during VOCALS-REx using WRF-Chem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qing; Gustafson, William I.; Fast, Jerome D.

2011-12-02

In the recent chemistry version (v3.3) of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model, we have coupled the Morrison double-moment microphysics scheme with interactive aerosols so that full two-way aerosol-cloud interactions are included in simulations. We have used this new WRF-Chem functionality in a study focused on assessing predictions of aerosols, marine stratocumulus clouds, and their interactions over the Southeast Pacific using measurements from the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) and satellite retrievals. This study also serves as a detailed analysis of our WRF-Chem simulations contributed to the VOCALS model Assessment (VOCA) project. The WRF-Chem 31-day (October 15-November 16,more » 2008) simulation with aerosol-cloud interactions (AERO hereafter) is also compared to a simulation (MET hereafter) with fixed cloud droplet number concentrations assumed by the default in Morrison microphysics scheme with no interactive aerosols. The well-predicted aerosol properties such as number, mass composition, and optical depth lead to significant improvements in many features of the predicted stratocumulus clouds: cloud optical properties and microphysical properties such as cloud top effective radius, cloud water path, and cloud optical thickness, and cloud macrostructure such as cloud depth and cloud base height. These improvements in addition to the aerosol direct and semi-direct effects, in turn, feed back to the prediction of boundary-layer characteristics and energy budgets. Particularly, inclusion of interactive aerosols in AERO strengths temperature and humidity gradients within capping inversion layer and lowers the MBL depth by 150 m from that of the MET simulation. Mean top-of-the-atmosphere outgoing shortwave fluxes, surface latent heat, and surface downwelling longwave fluxes are in better agreement with observations in AERO, compared to the MET simulation. Nevertheless, biases in some of the simulated

Substrate Deformation Predicts Neuronal Growth Cone Advance

PubMed Central

Athamneh, Ahmad I.M.; Cartagena-Rivera, Alexander X.; Raman, Arvind; Suter, Daniel M.

2015-01-01

Although pulling forces have been observed in axonal growth for several decades, their underlying mechanisms, absolute magnitudes, and exact roles are not well understood. In this study, using two different experimental approaches, we quantified retrograde traction force in Aplysia californica neuronal growth cones as they develop over time in response to a new adhesion substrate. In the first approach, we developed a novel method, to our knowledge, for measuring traction forces using an atomic force microscope (AFM) with a cantilever that was modified with an Aplysia cell adhesion molecule (apCAM)-coated microbead. In the second approach, we used force-calibrated glass microneedles coated with apCAM ligands to guide growth cone advance. The traction force exerted by the growth cone was measured by monitoring the microneedle deflection using an optical microscope. Both approaches showed that Aplysia growth cones can develop traction forces in the 100–102 nN range during adhesion-mediated advance. Moreover, our results suggest that the level of traction force is directly correlated to the stiffness of the microneedle, which is consistent with a reinforcement mechanism previously observed in other cell types. Interestingly, the absolute level of traction force did not correlate with growth cone advance toward the adhesion site, but the amount of microneedle deflection did. In cases of adhesion-mediated growth cone advance, the mean needle deflection was 1.05 ± 0.07 μm. By contrast, the mean deflection was significantly lower (0.48 ± 0.06 μm) when the growth cones did not advance. Our data support a hypothesis that adhesion complexes, which can undergo micron-scale elastic deformation, regulate the coupling between the retrogradely flowing actin cytoskeleton and apCAM substrates, stimulating growth cone advance if sufficiently abundant. PMID:26445437

Microphysical Modeling of Titan's Detached Haze Layer in a 3D GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, Erik J.; Toon, Owen B.; West, Robert A.; Friedson, A. James

2015-11-01

We investigate the formation and seasonal cycle of the detached haze layer in Titan’s upper atmosphere using a 3D GCM with coupled aerosol microphysics. The base of the detached haze layer is defined by a local minimum in the vertical extinction profile. The detached haze is seen at all latitudes including the south pole as seen in Cassini images from 2005-2012. The layer merges into the winter polar haze at high latitudes where the Hadley circulation carries the particles downward. The hemisphere in which the haze merges with the polar haze varies with season. We find that the base of the detached haze layer occurs where there is a near balance between vertical winds and particle fall velocities. Generally the vertical variation of particle concentration in the detached haze region is simply controlled by sedimentation, so the concentration and the extinction vary roughly in proportion to air density. This variation explains why the upper part of the main haze layer, and the bulk of the detached haze layer follow exponential profiles. However, the shape of the profile is modified in regions where the vertical wind velocity is comparable to the particle fall velocity. Our simulations closely match the period when the base of the detached layer in the tropics is observed to begin its seasonal drop in altitude, and the total range of the altitude drop. However, the simulations have the base of the detached layer about 100 km lower than observed, and the time for the base to descend is slower in the simulations than observed. These differences may point to the model having somewhat lower vertical winds than occur on Titan, or somewhat too large of particle sizes, or some combination of both. Our model is consistent with a dynamical origin for the detached haze rather than a chemical or microphysical one. This balance between the vertical wind and particle fall velocities occurs throughout the summer hemisphere and tropics. The particle concentration gradients that

Multiphase chemistry in a microphysical radiation fog model—A numerical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bott, Andreas; Carmichael, Gregory R.

A microphysical radiation fog model is coupled with a detailed chemistry module to simulate chemical reactions in the gas phase and in fog water during a radiation fog event. In the chemical part of the model the microphysical particle spectrum is subdivided into three size classes corresponding to non-activated aerosol particles, small and large fog droplets. Chemical reactions in the liquid phase are separately calculated in the small and in the large droplet size class. The impact of the chemical constitution of activated aerosols on fogwater chemistry is considered in the model simulations. The mass transfer of chemical species between the gas phase and the two liquid phases is treated in detail by solving the corresponding coupled differential equation system. The model also accounts for concentration changes of gas-phase and aqueous-phase chemical species which are induced by turbulence, gravitational settling and by evaporation/condensation processes. Numerical results demonstrate that fogwater chemistry is strongly controlled by dynamic processes, i.e. the vertical growth of the fog, turbulent mixing processes and the gravitational settling of the particles. The concentrations of aqueous-phase chemical species are different in the two droplet size classes. Reactands with lower water solubility are mainly found in the large droplet size class because the characteristic time for their mass transfer from the gas phase into the liquid phase is essentially longer than the characteristic time for the formation of large fog droplets. Species with high water solubility are rapidly transferred into the small fog droplets and are then washed out by wet deposition before these particles grow further to form large droplets. Thus, the concentrations of the major ions (NO 3-, NH 4+) are much higher in small than in large droplets, yielding distinctly lower pH values of the small particles. In the present study the reaction of sulfur with H 2O 2 and the Fe

How do changes in warm-phase microphysics affect deep convective clouds?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qian; Koren, Ilan; Altaratz, Orit; Heiblum, Reuven H.; Dagan, Guy; Pinto, Lital

2017-08-01

Understanding aerosol effects on deep convective clouds and the derived effects on the radiation budget and rain patterns can largely contribute to estimations of climate uncertainties. The challenge is difficult in part because key microphysical processes in the mixed and cold phases are still not well understood. For deep convective clouds with a warm base, understanding aerosol effects on the warm processes is extremely important as they set the initial and boundary conditions for the cold processes. Therefore, the focus of this study is the warm phase, which can be better resolved. The main question is: How do aerosol-derived changes in the warm phase affect the properties of deep convective cloud systems? To explore this question, we used a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model with spectral bin microphysics to simulate a deep convective cloud system over the Marshall Islands during the Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX). The model results were validated against observations, showing similarities in the vertical profile of radar reflectivity and the surface rain rate. Simulations with larger aerosol loading resulted in a larger total cloud mass, a larger cloud fraction in the upper levels, and a larger frequency of strong updrafts and rain rates. Enlarged mass both below and above the zero temperature level (ZTL) contributed to the increase in cloud total mass (water and ice) in the polluted runs. Increased condensation efficiency of cloud droplets governed the gain in mass below the ZTL, while both enhanced condensational and depositional growth led to increased mass above it. The enhanced mass loading above the ZTL acted to reduce the cloud buoyancy, while the thermal buoyancy (driven by the enhanced latent heat release) increased in the polluted runs. The overall effect showed an increased upward transport (across the ZTL) of liquid water driven by both larger updrafts and larger droplet mobility. These aerosol effects were reflected in the larger

The status of perineural invasion predicts the outcomes of postoperative radiotherapy in locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Ning, Zhong-Hua; Zhao, Wei; Li, Xiao-Dong; Chen, Lu-Jun; Xu, Bin; Gu, Wen-Dong; Shao, Ying-Jie; Xu, Yun; Huang, Jin; Pei, Hong-Lei; Jiang, Jing-Ting

2015-01-01

Prognosis of locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remains dismal even after curative resection and adjuvant radiotherapy. New biomarkers for predicting prognosis and treatment outcomes are needed for improved treatment stratification of patients with locally advanced ESCC. The prognostic and treatment predictive significance of perineural invasion (PNI) in the locally advanced ESCC remains unclear. This study aimed to examine the effect of PNI on the outcomes of locally advanced ESCC patients after curative resection with or without postoperative radiotherapy (PORT). We retrospectively reviewed 262 consecutive locally advanced ESCC patients who underwent curative resection. Tumors sections were re-evaluated for PNI by an independent pathologist blinded to the patients' outcomes. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were determined using the Kaplan-Meier method; univariate log-rank test and multivariate Cox proportional hazard model were used to evaluate the prognostic value of PNI. Finally, 243 patients were analyzed and enrolled into this study, of which 132 received PORT. PNI was identified in 22.2% (54/243) of the pathologic sections. The 5-year DFS was favorable for PNI-negative patients versus PNI-positive patients (21.3% vs. 36.7%, respectively; P = 0.005). The 5-year OS was 40.3% for PNI-negative patients versus 21.7% for PNI-positive patients (P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, PNI was an independent prognostic factor. In a subset analysis for patients received PORT, PNI was evaluated as a prognostic predictor as well (P < 0.05). In contrast to patients without PORT, PORT couldn't improve the disease recurrence and survival in locally advanced ESCC patients with PNI-positive (P > 0.05). PNI could serve as an independent prognostic factor and prognosticate treatment outcomes in locally advanced ESCC patients. The PNI status should be considered when stratifying high-risk locally advanced ESCC patients for adjuvant

Chemistry and Microphysics of Lower Stratospheric Aerosols Determined by Satellite Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zasetsky, A. Y.; Khalizov, A.; Sloan, J.

2003-12-01

Observations of broadband Infrared satellites such as ILAS-II (Ministry of the Environment, Japan, launched 14 December 2002) and SciSat-1 (Canadian Space Agency, launched 12 August 2003) can provide details of the chemical composition and particle size of atmospheric aerosols by direct inversion without recourse to models. During the past decade, we have developed mathematical methods to achieve this inversion by working with FTIR observations of model atmospheric aerosols in cryogenic flowtubes. More recently, we have converted these to operational algorithms for use in the above missions. In this presentation, we will briefly outline these procedures and illustrate their capabilities using laboratory data. These laboratory results show that the chemical compositions, phases and sizes of ensembles of particles can be obtained simultaneously using these procedures. We will also report chemical and microphysical properties of lower stratospheric clouds and aerosols derived by applying these procedures to observations from space.

Sensitivity of Aerosol Mass and Microphysics to varying treatments of Condensational Growth of Secondary Organic Compounds in a regional model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, Douglas; Topping, David; McFiggans, Gordon

2017-04-01

Gas to particle partitioning of atmospheric compounds occurs through disequilibrium mass transfer rather than through instantaneous equilibrium. However, it is common to treat only the inorganic compounds as partitioning dynamically whilst organic compounds, represented by the Volatility Basis Set (VBS), are partitioned instantaneously. In this study we implement a more realistic dynamic partitioning of organic compounds in a regional framework and assess impact on aerosol mass and microphysics. It is also common to assume condensed phase water is only associated with inorganic components. We thus also assess sensitivity to assuming all organics are hygroscopic according to their prescribed molecular weight. For this study we use WRF-Chem v3.4.1, focusing on anthropogenic dominated North-Western Europe. Gas-phase chemistry is represented using CBM-Z whilst aerosol dynamics are simulated using the 8-section MOSAIC scheme, including a 9-bin VBS treatment of organic aerosol. Results indicate that predicted mass loadings can vary significantly. Without gas phase ageing of higher volatility compounds, dynamic partitioning always results in lower mass loadings downwind of emission sources. The inclusion of condensed phase water in both partitioning models increases the predicted PM mass, resulting from a larger contribution from higher volatility organics, if present. If gas phase ageing of VBS compounds is allowed to occur in a dynamic model, this can often lead to higher predicted mass loadings, contrary to expected behaviour from a simple non-reactive gas phase box model. As descriptions of aerosol phase processes improve within regional models, the baseline descriptions of partitioning should retain the ability to treat dynamic partitioning of organics compounds. Using our simulations, we discuss whether derived sensitivities to aerosol processes in existing models may be inherently biased. This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council within

Pharmacogenetics-based area-under-curve model can predict efficacy and adverse events from axitinib in individual patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Yoshiaki; Tsunedomi, Ryouichi; Fujita, Yusuke; Otori, Toru; Ohba, Mitsuyoshi; Kawai, Yoshihisa; Hirata, Hiroshi; Matsumoto, Hiroaki; Haginaka, Jun; Suzuki, Shigeo; Dahiya, Rajvir; Hamamoto, Yoshihiko; Matsuyama, Kenji; Hazama, Shoichi; Nagano, Hiroaki; Matsuyama, Hideyasu

2018-03-30

We investigated the relationship between axitinib pharmacogenetics and clinical efficacy/adverse events in advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and established a model to predict clinical efficacy and adverse events using pharmacokinetic and gene polymorphisms related to drug metabolism and efflux in a phase II trial. We prospectively evaluated the area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) of axitinib, objective response rate, and adverse events in 44 consecutive advanced RCC patients treated with axitinib. To establish a model for predicting clinical efficacy and adverse events, polymorphisms in genes including ABC transporters ( ABCB1 and ABCG2 ), UGT1A , and OR2B11 were analyzed by whole-exome sequencing, Sanger sequencing, and DNA microarray. To validate this prediction model, calculated AUC by 6 gene polymorphisms was compared with actual AUC in 16 additional consecutive patients prospectively. Actual AUC significantly correlated with the objective response rate ( P = 0.0002) and adverse events (hand-foot syndrome, P = 0.0055; and hypothyroidism, P = 0.0381). Calculated AUC significantly correlated with actual AUC ( P < 0.0001), and correctly predicted objective response rate ( P = 0.0044) as well as adverse events ( P = 0.0191 and 0.0082, respectively). In the validation study, calculated AUC prior to axitinib treatment precisely predicted actual AUC after axitinib treatment ( P = 0.0066). Our pharmacogenetics-based AUC prediction model may determine the optimal initial dose of axitinib, and thus facilitate better treatment of patients with advanced RCC.

Pharmacogenetics-based area-under-curve model can predict efficacy and adverse events from axitinib in individual patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, Yoshiaki; Tsunedomi, Ryouichi; Fujita, Yusuke; Otori, Toru; Ohba, Mitsuyoshi; Kawai, Yoshihisa; Hirata, Hiroshi; Matsumoto, Hiroaki; Haginaka, Jun; Suzuki, Shigeo; Dahiya, Rajvir; Hamamoto, Yoshihiko; Matsuyama, Kenji; Hazama, Shoichi; Nagano, Hiroaki; Matsuyama, Hideyasu

2018-01-01

We investigated the relationship between axitinib pharmacogenetics and clinical efficacy/adverse events in advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and established a model to predict clinical efficacy and adverse events using pharmacokinetic and gene polymorphisms related to drug metabolism and efflux in a phase II trial. We prospectively evaluated the area under the plasma concentration–time curve (AUC) of axitinib, objective response rate, and adverse events in 44 consecutive advanced RCC patients treated with axitinib. To establish a model for predicting clinical efficacy and adverse events, polymorphisms in genes including ABC transporters (ABCB1 and ABCG2), UGT1A, and OR2B11 were analyzed by whole-exome sequencing, Sanger sequencing, and DNA microarray. To validate this prediction model, calculated AUC by 6 gene polymorphisms was compared with actual AUC in 16 additional consecutive patients prospectively. Actual AUC significantly correlated with the objective response rate (P = 0.0002) and adverse events (hand-foot syndrome, P = 0.0055; and hypothyroidism, P = 0.0381). Calculated AUC significantly correlated with actual AUC (P < 0.0001), and correctly predicted objective response rate (P = 0.0044) as well as adverse events (P = 0.0191 and 0.0082, respectively). In the validation study, calculated AUC prior to axitinib treatment precisely predicted actual AUC after axitinib treatment (P = 0.0066). Our pharmacogenetics-based AUC prediction model may determine the optimal initial dose of axitinib, and thus facilitate better treatment of patients with advanced RCC. PMID:29682213

Comprehensive Airborne in Situ Characterization of Atmospheric Aerosols: From Angular Light Scattering to Particle Microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinosa, W. Reed

A comprehensive understanding of atmospheric aerosols is necessary both to understand Earth's climate as well as produce skillful air quality forecasts. In order to advance our understanding of aerosols, the Laboratory for Aerosols, Clouds and Optics (LACO) has recently developed the Imaging Polar Nephelometer instrument concept for the in situ measurement of aerosol scattering properties. Imaging Nephelometers provide measurements of absolute phase function and polarized phase function over a wide angular range, typically 3 degrees to 177 degrees, with an angular resolution smaller than one degree. The first of these instruments, the Polarized Imaging Nephelometer (PI-Neph), has taken part in five airborne field experiments and is the only modern aerosol polar nephelometer to have flown aboard an aircraft. A method for the retrieval of aerosol optical and microphysical properties from I-Neph measurements is presented and the results are compared with existing measurement techniques. The resulting retrieved particle size distributions agree to within experimental error with measurements made by commercial optical particle counters. Additionally, the retrieved real part of the refractive index is generally found to be within the predicted error of 0.02 from the expected values for three species of humidified salt particles, whose refractive index is well established. A synopsis is then presented of aerosol scattering measurements made by the PI-Neph during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and the Deep Convection Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaigns. To better summarize these extensive datasets a novel aerosol classification scheme is developed, making use of ancillary data that includes gas tracers, chemical composition, aerodynamic particle size and geographic location, all independent of PI-Neph measurements. Principal component analysis (PCA) is then used to reduce the

A microphysically-based approach to modeling emissivity and albedo of the martian seasonal caps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eluszkiewicz, J.; Moncet, J.-L.; Titus, T.N.; Hansen, G.B.

2005-01-01

A new model of albedo and emissivity of the martian seasonal caps represented as porous CO2 slabs containing spherical voids and dust particles is described. In the model, a radiative transfer model is coupled with a microphysical model in order to link changes in albedo and emissivity to changes in porosity caused by ice metamorphism. The coupled model is capable of reproducing temporal changes in the spectra of the caps taken by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer onboard the Mars Global Surveyor and it can be used as the forward model in the retrievals of the caps' physical properties (porosity, dust abundance, void and dust grain size) from the spectra. Preliminary results from such inversion studies are presented. ?? 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High-Resolution NU-WRF Simulations of a Deep Convective-Precipitation System During MC3E: Part I: Comparisons Between Goddard Microphysics Schemes and Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Di; Lang, Stephen; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Fridlind, Ann; Matsui, Toshihisa

2016-01-01

The Goddard microphysics was recently improved by adding a fourth ice class (frozen dropshail). This new 4ICE scheme was developed and tested in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for an intense continental squall line and a moderate, less organized continental case. Simulated peak radar reflectivity profiles were improved in intensity and shape for both cases, as were the overall reflectivity probability distributions versus observations. In this study, the new Goddard 4ICE scheme is implemented into the regional-scale NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model, modified and evaluated for the same intense squall line, which occurred during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). NU-WRF simulated radar reflectivities, total rainfall, propagation, and convective system structures using the 4ICE scheme modified herein agree as well as or significantly better with observations than the original 4ICE and two previous 3ICE (graupel or hail) versions of the Goddard microphysics. With the modified 4ICE, the bin microphysics-based rain evaporation correction improves propagation and in conjunction with eliminating the unrealistic dry collection of icesnow by hail can replicate the erect, narrow, and intense convective cores. Revisions to the ice supersaturation, ice number concentration formula, and snow size mapping, including a new snow breakup effect, allow the modified 4ICE to produce a stronger, better organized system, more snow, and mimic the strong aggregation signature in the radar distributions. NU-WRF original 4ICE simulated radar reflectivity distributions are consistent with and generally superior to those using the GCE due to the less restrictive domain and lateral boundaries.

Leveraging Improvements in Precipitation Measuring from GPM Mission to Achieve Prediction Improvements in Climate, Weather and Hydrometeorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.

2002-01-01

The main scientific goal of the GPM mission, currently planned for start in the 2007 time frame, is to investigate important scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing Operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US and the National Space Development Agency in Japan. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international partners and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave

A hybrid numerical technique for predicting the aerodynamic and acoustic fields of advanced turboprops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Homicz, G. F.; Moselle, J. R.

1985-01-01

A hybrid numerical procedure is presented for the prediction of the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of advanced turboprops. A hybrid scheme is proposed which in principle leads to a consistent simultaneous prediction of both fields. In the inner flow a finite difference method, the Approximate-Factorization Alternating-Direction-Implicit (ADI) scheme, is used to solve the nonlinear Euler equations. In the outer flow the linearized acoustic equations are solved via a Boundary-Integral Equation (BIE) method. The two solutions are iteratively matched across a fictitious interface in the flow so as to maintain continuity. At convergence the resulting aerodynamic load prediction will automatically satisfy the appropriate free-field boundary conditions at the edge of the finite difference grid, while the acoustic predictions will reflect the back-reaction of the radiated field on the magnitude of the loading source terms, as well as refractive effects in the inner flow. The equations and logic needed to match the two solutions are developed and the computer program implementing the procedure is described. Unfortunately, no converged solutions were obtained, due to unexpectedly large running times. The reasons for this are discussed and several means to alleviate the situation are suggested.

Forest fire smoke layers observed in the free troposphere over Portugal with a multiwavelength Raman lidar: optical and microphysical properties.

PubMed

Nepomuceno Pereira, Sérgio; Preißler, Jana; Guerrero-Rascado, Juan Luis; Silva, Ana Maria; Wagner, Frank

2014-01-01

Vertically resolved optical and microphysical properties of biomass burning aerosols, measured in 2011 with a multiwavelength Raman lidar, are presented. The transportation time, within 1-2 days (or less), pointed towards the presence of relatively fresh smoke particles over the site. Some strong layers aloft were observed with particle backscatter and extinction coefficients (at 355 nm) greater than 5 Mm(-1)sr(-1) and close to 300 Mm(-1), respectively. The particle intensive optical properties showed features different from the ones reported for aged smoke, but rather consistent with fresh smoke. The Ångström exponents were generally high, mainly above 1.4, indicating a dominating accumulation mode. Weak depolarization values, as shown by the small depolarization ratio of 5% or lower, were measured. Furthermore, the lidar ratio presented no clear wavelength dependency. The inversion of the lidar signals provided a set of microphysical properties including particle effective radius below 0.2 μm, which is less than values previously observed for aged smoke particles. Real and imaginary parts of refractive index of about 1.5-1.6 and 0.02i, respectively, were derived. The single scattering albedo was in the range between 0.85 and 0.93; these last two quantities indicate the nonnegligible absorbing characteristics of the observed particles.

Single-Column Modeling, GCM Parameterizations and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Somerville, R.C.J.; Iacobellis, S.F.

2005-03-18

Our overall goal is identical to that of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: the development of new and improved parameterizations of cloud-radiation effects and related processes, using ARM data at all three ARM sites, and the implementation and testing of these parameterizations in global and regional models. To test recently developed prognostic parameterizations based on detailed cloud microphysics, we have first compared single-column model (SCM) output with ARM observations at the Southern Great Plains (SGP), North Slope of Alaska (NSA) and Topical Western Pacific (TWP) sites. We focus on the predicted cloud amounts and on a suite of radiativemore » quantities strongly dependent on clouds, such as downwelling surface shortwave radiation. Our results demonstrate the superiority of parameterizations based on comprehensive treatments of cloud microphysics and cloud-radiative interactions. At the SGP and NSA sites, the SCM results simulate the ARM measurements well and are demonstrably more realistic than typical parameterizations found in conventional operational forecasting models. At the TWP site, the model performance depends strongly on details of the scheme, and the results of our diagnostic tests suggest ways to develop improved parameterizations better suited to simulating cloud-radiation interactions in the tropics generally. These advances have made it possible to take the next step and build on this progress, by incorporating our parameterization schemes in state-of-the-art 3D atmospheric models, and diagnosing and evaluating the results using independent data. Because the improved cloud-radiation results have been obtained largely via implementing detailed and physically comprehensive cloud microphysics, we anticipate that improved predictions of hydrologic cycle components, and hence of precipitation, may also be achievable. We are currently testing the performance of our ARM-based parameterizations in state-of-the--art global and

Microphysics of Clouds with the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme (McRAS). Part I: Design and Evaluation with GATE Phase III Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

1999-09-01

A prognostic cloud scheme named McRAS (Microphysics of Clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme) has been designed and developed with the aim of improving moist processes, microphysics of clouds, and cloud-radiation interactions in GCMs. McRAS distinguishes three types of clouds: convective, stratiform, and boundary layer. The convective clouds transform and merge into stratiform clouds on an hourly timescale, while the boundary layer clouds merge into the stratiform clouds instantly. The cloud condensate converts into precipitation following the autoconversion equations of Sundqvist that contain a parametric adaptation for the Bergeron-Findeisen process of ice crystal growth and collection of cloud condensate by precipitation. All clouds convect, advect, as well as diffuse both horizontally and vertically with a fully interactive cloud microphysics throughout the life cycle of the cloud, while the optical properties of clouds are derived from the statistical distribution of hydrometeors and idealized cloud geometry.An evaluation of McRAS in a single-column model (SCM) with the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) Phase III data has shown that, together with the rest of the model physics, McRAS can simulate the observed temperature, humidity, and precipitation without discernible systematic errors. The time history and time mean in-cloud water and ice distribution, fractional cloudiness, cloud optical thickness, origin of precipitation in the convective anvils and towers, and the convective updraft and downdraft velocities and mass fluxes all simulate a realistic behavior. Some of these diagnostics are not verifiable with data on hand. These SCM sensitivity tests show that (i) without clouds the simulated GATE-SCM atmosphere is cooler than observed; (ii) the model's convective scheme, RAS, is an important subparameterization of McRAS; and (iii) advection of cloud water substance is helpful in simulating better cloud

Genotype-driven identification of a molecular network predictive of advanced coronary calcium in ClinSeq® and Framingham Heart Study cohorts.

PubMed

Oguz, Cihan; Sen, Shurjo K; Davis, Adam R; Fu, Yi-Ping; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Gibbons, Gary H

2017-10-26

One goal of personalized medicine is leveraging the emerging tools of data science to guide medical decision-making. Achieving this using disparate data sources is most daunting for polygenic traits. To this end, we employed random forests (RFs) and neural networks (NNs) for predictive modeling of coronary artery calcium (CAC), which is an intermediate endo-phenotype of coronary artery disease (CAD). Model inputs were derived from advanced cases in the ClinSeq®; discovery cohort (n=16) and the FHS replication cohort (n=36) from 89 th -99 th CAC score percentile range, and age-matched controls (ClinSeq®; n=16, FHS n=36) with no detectable CAC (all subjects were Caucasian males). These inputs included clinical variables and genotypes of 56 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) ranked highest in terms of their nominal correlation with the advanced CAC state in the discovery cohort. Predictive performance was assessed by computing the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC-AUC). RF models trained and tested with clinical variables generated ROC-AUC values of 0.69 and 0.61 in the discovery and replication cohorts, respectively. In contrast, in both cohorts, the set of SNPs derived from the discovery cohort were highly predictive (ROC-AUC ≥0.85) with no significant change in predictive performance upon integration of clinical and genotype variables. Using the 21 SNPs that produced optimal predictive performance in both cohorts, we developed NN models trained with ClinSeq®; data and tested with FHS data and obtained high predictive accuracy (ROC-AUC=0.80-0.85) with several topologies. Several CAD and "vascular aging" related biological processes were enriched in the network of genes constructed from the predictive SNPs. We identified a molecular network predictive of advanced coronary calcium using genotype data from ClinSeq®; and FHS cohorts. Our results illustrate that machine learning tools, which utilize complex interactions between disease

Improvement of Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System (ASAPS) on Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jeong-Gyun; Jee, Joon-Bum

2017-04-01

Dangerous weather such as severe rain, heavy snow, drought and heat wave caused by climate change make more damage in the urban area that dense populated and industry areas. Urban areas, unlike the rural area, have big population and transportation, dense the buildings and fuel consumption. Anthropogenic factors such as road energy balance, the flow of air in the urban is unique meteorological phenomena. However several researches are in process about prediction of urban meteorology. ASAPS (Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System) predicts a severe weather with very short range (prediction with 6 hour) and high resolution (every hour with time and 1 km with space) on Seoul metropolitan area based on KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). This system configured three parts that make a background field (SUF5), analysis field (SU01) with observation and forecast field with high resolution (SUF1). In this study, we improve a high-resolution ASAPS model and perform a sensitivity test for the rainfall case. The improvement of ASAPS include model domain configuration, high resolution topographic data and data assimilation with WISE observation data.

Influence of Microphysical Variability on Stochastic Condensation in Turbulent Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, N.; Chandrakar, K. K.; Chang, K.; Glienke, S.; Cantrell, W. H.; Fugal, J. P.; Shaw, R. A.

2017-12-01

We investigate the influence of variability in droplet number concentration and radius on the evolution of cloud droplet size distributions. Measurements are made on the centimeter scale using digitial inline holography, both in a controlled laboratory setting and in the field using HOLODEC measurements from CSET. We created steady state cloud conditions in the laboratory Pi Chamber, in which a turbulent cloud can be sustained for long periods of time. Using holographic imaging, we directly observe the variations in local number concentration and droplet size distribution and, thereby, the integral radius. We interpret the measurements in the context of stochastic condensation theory to determine how fluctuations in integral radius contribute to droplet growth. We find that the variability in integral radius is primarily driven by variations in the droplet number concentration and not the droplet radius. This variability does not contribute significantly to the mean droplet growth rate, but contributes significantly to the rate of increase of the size distribution width. We compare these results with in-situ measurements and find evidence for microphysical signatures of stochastic condensation. The results suggest that supersaturation fluctuations lead to broader size distributions and allow droplets to reach the collision-coalescence stage.

A model predicting the evolution of ice particle size spectra and radiative properties of cirrus clouds. Part 2: Dependence of absorption and extinction on ice crystal morphology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, David L.; Arnott, W. Patrick

1994-01-01

This study builds upon the microphysical modeling described in Part 1 by deriving formulations for the extinction and absorption coefficients in terms of the size distribution parameters predicted from the micro-physical model. The optical depth and single scatter albedo of a cirrus cloud can then be determined, which, along with the asymmetry parameter, are the input parameters needed by cloud radiation models. Through the use of anomalous diffraction theory, analytical expressions were developed describing the absorption and extinction coefficients and the single scatter albedo as functions of size distribution parameters, ice crystal shapes (or habits), wavelength, and refractive index. The extinction coefficient was formulated in terms of the projected area of the size distribution, while the absorption coefficient was formulated in terms of both the projected area and mass of the size distribution. These properties were formulated as explicit functions of ice crystal geometry and were not based on an 'effective radius.' Based on simulations of the second cirrus case study described in Part 1, absorption coefficients predicted in the near infrared for hexagonal columns and rosettes were up to 47% and 71% lower, respectively, than absorption coefficients predicted by using equivalent area spheres. This resulted in single scatter albedos in the near-infrared that were considerably greater than those predicted by the equivalent area sphere method. Reflectances in this region should therefore be underestimated using the equivalent area sphere approach. Cloud optical depth was found to depend on ice crystal habit. When the simulated cirrus cloud contained only bullet rosettes, the optical depth was 142% greater than when the cloud contained only hexagonal columns. This increase produced a doubling in cloud albedo. In the near-infrared (IR), the single scatter albedo also exhibited a significant dependence on ice crystal habit. More research is needed on the

The relationships among cloud microphysics, chemistry, and precipitation rate in cold mountain clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borys, Randolph D.; Lowenthal, Douglas H.; Mitchell, David L.

A study was conducted to examine the relationships among air pollutant loadings, cloud microphysics, and snowfall rates in cold mountain clouds. It was hypothesized that variations in pollutant loadings would be reflected in shifts in the cloud droplet size distribution. A field program was conducted at Storm Peak Laboratory (SPL) at an elevation of 3210 m MSL in northwestern Colorado. Cold precipitating clouds were sampled during January, 1995. Cloud water was collected and analyzed for major ion and trace element chemistry. Cloud droplet concentrations and size were measured continuously using a PMS FSSP-100. The results indicate a direct relationship between clear-air equivalent (CAE) sulfate concentrations in cloud water and cloud droplet concentrations, an indirect relationship between droplet number and droplet size, a direct relationship between droplet size and snowfall rate, and an indirect relationship between CAE sulfate concentration and snowfall rate.

NOAA's National Air Quality Predictions and Development of Aerosol and Atmospheric Composition Prediction Components for the Next Generation Global Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stajner, I.; Hou, Y. T.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; Stein, A. F.; Tong, D.; Pan, L.; Huang, J.; Huang, H. C.; Upadhayay, S.

2016-12-01

NOAA provides operational air quality predictions using the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC): ozone and wildfire smoke for the United States and airborne dust for the contiguous 48 states at http://airquality.weather.gov. NOAA's predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) became publicly available in February 2016. Ozone and PM2.5 predictions are produced using a system that operationally links the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with meteorological inputs from the North American mesoscale forecast Model (NAM). Smoke and dust predictions are provided using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Current NAQFC focus is on updating CMAQ to version 5.0.2, improving PM2.5 predictions, and updating emissions estimates, especially for NOx using recently observed trends. Wildfire smoke emissions from a newer version of the USFS BlueSky system are being included in a new configuration of the NAQFC NAM-CMAQ system, which is re-run for the previous 24 hours when the wildfires were observed from satellites, to better represent wildfire emissions prior to initiating predictions for the next 48 hours. In addition, NOAA is developing the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) to represent the earth system for extended weather prediction. NGGPS will include a representation of atmospheric dynamics, physics, aerosols and atmospheric composition as well as coupling with ocean, wave, ice and land components. NGGPS is being developed with a broad community involvement, including community developed components and academic research to develop and test potential improvements for potentially inclusion in NGGPS. Several investigators at NOAA's research laboratories and in academia are working to improve the aerosol and gaseous chemistry representation for NGGPS, to develop and evaluate the representation of atmospheric composition, and to establish and improve the coupling with radiation and microphysics

Influence of bulk microphysics schemes upon Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.6.1 nor'easter simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Stephen D.; Decker, Steven G.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Shi, Jainn J.; Mohr, Karen I.

2017-03-01

This study evaluated the impact of five single- or double-moment bulk microphysics schemes (BMPSs) on Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) simulations of seven intense wintertime cyclones impacting the mid-Atlantic United States; 5-day long WRF simulations were initialized roughly 24 h prior to the onset of coastal cyclogenesis off the North Carolina coastline. In all, 35 model simulations (five BMPSs and seven cases) were run and their associated microphysics-related storm properties (hydrometer mixing ratios, precipitation, and radar reflectivity) were evaluated against model analysis and available gridded radar and ground-based precipitation products. Inter-BMPS comparisons of column-integrated mixing ratios and mixing ratio profiles reveal little variability in non-frozen hydrometeor species due to their shared programming heritage, yet their assumptions concerning snow and graupel intercepts, ice supersaturation, snow and graupel density maps, and terminal velocities led to considerable variability in both simulated frozen hydrometeor species and radar reflectivity. WRF-simulated precipitation fields exhibit minor spatiotemporal variability amongst BMPSs, yet their spatial extent is largely conserved. Compared to ground-based precipitation data, WRF simulations demonstrate low-to-moderate (0.217-0.414) threat scores and a rainfall distribution shifted toward higher values. Finally, an analysis of WRF and gridded radar reflectivity data via contoured frequency with altitude diagrams (CFADs) reveals notable variability amongst BMPSs, where better performing schemes favored lower graupel mixing ratios and better underlying aggregation assumptions.

Influence of Bulk Microphysics Schemes upon Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Version 3.6.1 Nor'easter Simulations.

PubMed

Nicholls, Stephen D; Decker, Steven G; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E; Shi, Jainn J; Mohr, Karen I

2017-01-01

This study evaluated the impact of five, single- or double- moment bulk microphysics schemes (BMPSs) on Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) simulations of seven, intense winter time cyclones impacting the Mid-Atlantic United States. Five-day long WRF simulations were initialized roughly 24 hours prior to the onset of coastal cyclogenesis off the North Carolina coastline. In all, 35 model simulations (5 BMPSs and seven cases) were run and their associated microphysics-related storm properties (hydrometer mixing ratios, precipitation, and radar reflectivity) were evaluated against model analysis and available gridded radar and ground-based precipitation products. Inter-BMPS comparisons of column-integrated mixing ratios and mixing ratio profiles reveal little variability in non-frozen hydrometeor species due to their shared programming heritage, yet their assumptions concerning snow and graupel intercepts, ice supersaturation, snow and graupel density maps, and terminal velocities lead to considerable variability in both simulated frozen hydrometeor species and radar reflectivity. WRF-simulated precipitation fields exhibit minor spatio-temporal variability amongst BMPSs, yet their spatial extent is largely conserved. Compared to ground-based precipitation data, WRF-simulations demonstrate low-to-moderate (0.217-0.414) threat scores and a rainfall distribution shifted toward higher values. Finally, an analysis of WRF and gridded radar reflectivity data via contoured frequency with altitude (CFAD) diagrams reveals notable variability amongst BMPSs, where better performing schemes favored lower graupel mixing ratios and better underlying aggregation assumptions.

Influence of Bulk Microphysics Schemes upon Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Version 3.6.1 Nor'easter Simulations

PubMed Central

Nicholls, Stephen D.; Decker, Steven G.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Shi, Jainn J.; Mohr, Karen I.

2018-01-01

This study evaluated the impact of five, single- or double- moment bulk microphysics schemes (BMPSs) on Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) simulations of seven, intense winter time cyclones impacting the Mid-Atlantic United States. Five-day long WRF simulations were initialized roughly 24 hours prior to the onset of coastal cyclogenesis off the North Carolina coastline. In all, 35 model simulations (5 BMPSs and seven cases) were run and their associated microphysics-related storm properties (hydrometer mixing ratios, precipitation, and radar reflectivity) were evaluated against model analysis and available gridded radar and ground-based precipitation products. Inter-BMPS comparisons of column-integrated mixing ratios and mixing ratio profiles reveal little variability in non-frozen hydrometeor species due to their shared programming heritage, yet their assumptions concerning snow and graupel intercepts, ice supersaturation, snow and graupel density maps, and terminal velocities lead to considerable variability in both simulated frozen hydrometeor species and radar reflectivity. WRF-simulated precipitation fields exhibit minor spatio-temporal variability amongst BMPSs, yet their spatial extent is largely conserved. Compared to ground-based precipitation data, WRF-simulations demonstrate low-to-moderate (0.217–0.414) threat scores and a rainfall distribution shifted toward higher values. Finally, an analysis of WRF and gridded radar reflectivity data via contoured frequency with altitude (CFAD) diagrams reveals notable variability amongst BMPSs, where better performing schemes favored lower graupel mixing ratios and better underlying aggregation assumptions. PMID:29697705

Influence of Bulk Microphysics Schemes upon Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Version 3.6.1 Nor'easter Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicholls, Stephen D.; Decker, Steven G.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Shi, Jainn J.; Mohr, Karen Irene

2017-01-01

This study evaluated the impact of five single- or double-moment bulk microphysics schemes (BMPSs) on Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) simulations of seven intense wintertime cyclones impacting the mid-Atlantic United States; 5-day long WRF simulations were initialized roughly 24 hours prior to the onset of coastal cyclogenesis off the North Carolina coastline. In all, 35 model simulations (five BMPSs and seven cases) were run and their associated microphysics-related storm properties (hydrometer mixing ratios, precipitation, and radar reflectivity) were evaluated against model analysis and available gridded radar and ground-based precipitation products. Inter-BMPS comparisons of column-integrated mixing ratios and mixing ratio profiles reveal little variability in non-frozen hydrometeor species due to their shared programming heritage, yet their assumptions concerning snow and graupel intercepts, ice supersaturation, snow and graupel density maps, and terminal velocities led to considerable variability in both simulated frozen hydrometeor species and radar reflectivity. WRF-simulated precipitation fields exhibit minor spatiotemporal variability amongst BMPSs, yet their spatial extent is largely conserved. Compared to ground-based precipitation data, WRF simulations demonstrate low-to-moderate (0.217 to 0.414) threat scores and a rainfall distribution shifted toward higher values. Finally, an analysis of WRF and gridded radar reflectivity data via contoured frequency with altitude (CFAD) diagrams reveals notable variability amongst BMPSs, where better performing schemes favored lower graupel mixing ratios and better underlying aggregation assumptions.

[The survival prediction model of advanced gallbladder cancer based on Bayesian network: a multi-institutional study].

PubMed

Tang, Z H; Geng, Z M; Chen, C; Si, S B; Cai, Z Q; Song, T Q; Gong, P; Jiang, L; Qiu, Y H; He, Y; Zhai, W L; Li, S P; Zhang, Y C; Yang, Y

2018-05-01

Objective: To investigate the clinical value of Bayesian network in predicting survival of patients with advanced gallbladder cancer(GBC)who underwent curative intent surgery. Methods: The clinical data of patients with advanced GBC who underwent curative intent surgery in 9 institutions from January 2010 to December 2015 were analyzed retrospectively.A median survival time model based on a tree augmented naïve Bayes algorithm was established by Bayesia Lab software.The survival time, number of metastatic lymph nodes(NMLN), T stage, pathological grade, margin, jaundice, liver invasion, age, sex and tumor morphology were included in this model.Confusion matrix, the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model.A priori statistical analysis of these 10 variables and a posterior analysis(survival time as the target variable, the remaining factors as the attribute variables)was performed.The importance rankings of each variable was calculated with the polymorphic Birnbaum importance calculation based on the posterior analysis results.The survival probability forecast table was constructed based on the top 4 prognosis factors. The survival curve was drawn by the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences in survival curves were compared using the Log-rank test. Results: A total of 316 patients were enrolled, including 109 males and 207 females.The ratio of male to female was 1.0∶1.9, the age was (62.0±10.8)years.There was 298 cases(94.3%) R0 resection and 18 cases(5.7%) R1 resection.T staging: 287 cases(90.8%) T3 and 29 cases(9.2%) T4.The median survival time(MST) was 23.77 months, and the 1, 3, 5-year survival rates were 67.4%, 40.8%, 32.0%, respectively.For the Bayesian model, the number of correctly predicted cases was 121(≤23.77 months) and 115(>23.77 months) respectively, leading to a 74.86% accuracy of this model.The prior probability of survival time was 0.503 2(≤23.77 months) and 0.496 8

Observed microphysical structure of nimbostratus in northeast cold vortex over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Zhen; Lei, Hengchi

2014-06-01

Airborne measurements were collected during a stepwise ascent within a nimbostratus cloud associated with a northeast cold vortex in Jilin Province over China on 20 June 2005 to study cloud structure and ice particle spectra. The microphysical structure of the nimbostratus was elucidated by King liquid water probe and Particle Measuring Systems (PMS) probes aboard the research aircraft. The PMS 2D images provide detailed information on crystal habits. A thick layer of supercooled cloud is observed and Hallett-Mossop ice multiplication process is used to explain very high ice particle concentrations in the temperature region between - 3 °C and - 6 °C. From near cloud top to melting layer, ice crystals shape in the form of columns, needles, aggregations and plates. In addition, significant horizontal variability was evident on the scale of few hundred meters. Ice particle spectra in this cloud were adequately described by exponential relationships. Relationship between the intercept (N0) and slope (λ) parameters of an exponential size distribution was well characterized by a power law.

Vertical distribution of microphysical properties in radiation fogs - A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egli, S.; Maier, F.; Bendix, J.; Thies, B.

2015-01-01

The present study investigates the validity of a theoretical liquid water content (LWC) profile in fog layers currently used for satellite based ground fog detection, with a special focus on the temporal dynamics during fog life cycle. For this purpose, LWC profiles recorded during two different fog events by means of a tethered balloon borne measurement system are presented and discussed. The results indicate a good agreement in trend and gradient between measured and theoretical LWC profiles during the mature stage of the fog life cycle. The profile obtained during the dissipation stage shows less accordance with the theoretical profile. To improve the agreement between theoretical and measured LWC profiles, the evolutionary stages during the fog life cycle should be incorporated. However, the variability within the prenoted measurements points out that more LWC profiles during a great variety of different fog events have to be collected for a well-justified adaptation of the theoretical LWC profile, considering fog life cycle phases in the future. In general, this underlines the existing knowledge gap regarding the vertical distribution of microphysical properties in natural fogs.

Advances and Challenges In Uncertainty Quantification with Application to Climate Prediction, ICF design and Science Stockpile Stewardship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, R.; Woodward, C. S.; Johannesson, G.; Domyancic, D.; Covey, C. C.; Lucas, D. D.

2012-12-01

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a critical field within 21st century simulation science that resides at the very center of the web of emerging predictive capabilities. The science of UQ holds the promise of giving much greater meaning to the results of complex large-scale simulations, allowing for quantifying and bounding uncertainties. This powerful capability will yield new insights into scientific predictions (e.g. Climate) of great impact on both national and international arenas, allow informed decisions on the design of critical experiments (e.g. ICF capsule design, MFE, NE) in many scientific fields, and assign confidence bounds to scientifically predictable outcomes (e.g. nuclear weapons design). In this talk I will discuss a major new strategic initiative (SI) we have developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to advance the science of Uncertainty Quantification at LLNL focusing in particular on (a) the research and development of new algorithms and methodologies of UQ as applied to multi-physics multi-scale codes, (b) incorporation of these advancements into a global UQ Pipeline (i.e. a computational superstructure) that will simplify user access to sophisticated tools for UQ studies as well as act as a self-guided, self-adapting UQ engine for UQ studies on extreme computing platforms and (c) use laboratory applications as a test bed for new algorithms and methodologies. The initial SI focus has been on applications for the quantification of uncertainty associated with Climate prediction, but the validated UQ methodologies we have developed are now being fed back into Science Based Stockpile Stewardship (SSS) and ICF UQ efforts. To make advancements in several of these UQ grand challenges, I will focus in talk on the following three research areas in our Strategic Initiative: Error Estimation in multi-physics and multi-scale codes ; Tackling the "Curse of High Dimensionality"; and development of an advanced UQ Computational Pipeline to enable

NOAA's National Air Quality Prediction and Development of Aerosol and Atmospheric Composition Prediction Components for NGGPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stajner, I.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; Stein, A. F.; Wilczak, J. M.; Upadhayay, S.; daSilva, A.; Lu, C. H.; Grell, G. A.; Pierce, R. B.

2017-12-01

NOAA's operational air quality predictions of ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and wildfire smoke over the United States and airborne dust over the contiguous 48 states are distributed at http://airquality.weather.gov. The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) providing these predictions was updated in June 2017. Ozone and PM2.5 predictions are now produced using the system linking the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) version 5.0.2 with meteorological inputs from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) version 4. Predictions of PM2.5 include intermittent dust emissions and wildfire emissions from an updated version of BlueSky system. For the latter, the CMAQ system is initialized by rerunning it over the previous 24 hours to include wildfire emissions at the time when they were observed from the satellites. Post processing to reduce the bias in PM2.5 prediction was updated using the Kalman filter analog (KFAN) technique. Dust related aerosol species at the CMAQ domain lateral boundaries now come from the NEMS Global Aerosol Component (NGAC) v2 predictions. Further development of NAQFC includes testing of CMAQ predictions to 72 hours, Canadian fire emissions data from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and the KFAN technique to reduce bias in ozone predictions. NOAA is developing the Next Generation Global Predictions System (NGGPS) with an aerosol and gaseous atmospheric composition component to improve and integrate aerosol and ozone predictions and evaluate their impacts on physics, data assimilation and weather prediction. Efforts are underway to improve cloud microphysics, investigate aerosol effects and include representations of atmospheric composition of varying complexity into NGGPS: from the operational ozone parameterization, GOCART aerosols, with simplified ozone chemistry, to CMAQ chemistry with aerosol modules. We will present progress on community building, planning and development of NGGPS.

MATRIX-VBS (v1.0): Implementing an Evolving Organic Aerosol Volatility in an Aerosol Microphysics Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Chloe Y.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Bauer, Susanne E.

2017-01-01

The gas-particle partitioning and chemical aging of semi-volatile organic aerosol are presented in a newly developed box model scheme, where its effect on the growth, composition, and mixing state of particles is examined. The volatility-basis set (VBS) framework is implemented into the aerosol microphysical scheme MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state), which resolves mass and number aerosol concentrations and in multiple mixing-state classes. The new scheme, MATRIX-VBS, has the potential to significantly advance the representation of organic aerosols in Earth system models by improving upon the conventional representation as non-volatile particulate organic matter, often also with an assumed fixed size distribution. We present results from idealized cases representing Beijing, Mexico City, a Finnish forest, and a southeastern US forest, and investigate the evolution of mass concentrations and volatility distributions for organic species across the gas and particle phases, as well as assessing their mixing state among aerosol populations. Emitted semi-volatile primary organic aerosols evaporate almost completely in the intermediate-volatility range, while they remain in the particle phase in the low-volatility range. Their volatility distribution at any point in time depends on the applied emission factors, oxidation by OH radicals, and temperature. We also compare against parallel simulations with the original scheme, which represented only the particulate and non-volatile component of the organic aerosol, examining how differently the condensed-phase organic matter is distributed across the mixing states in the model. The results demonstrate the importance of representing organic aerosol as a semi-volatile aerosol, and explicitly calculating the partitioning of organic species between the gas and particulate phases.

Prediction model for prevalence and incidence of advanced age-related macular degeneration based on genetic, demographic, and environmental variables.

PubMed

Seddon, Johanna M; Reynolds, Robyn; Maller, Julian; Fagerness, Jesen A; Daly, Mark J; Rosner, Bernard

2009-05-01

The joint effects of genetic, ocular, and environmental variables were evaluated and predictive models for prevalence and incidence of AMD were assessed. Participants in the multicenter Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) were included in a prospective evaluation of 1446 individuals, of which 279 progressed to advanced AMD (geographic atrophy or neovascular disease) and 1167 did not progress during 6.3 years of follow-up. For prevalent AMD, 509 advanced cases were compared with 222 controls. Covariates for the incidence analysis included age, sex, education, smoking, body mass index (BMI), baseline AMD grade, and the AREDS vitamin-mineral treatment assignment. DNA specimens were evaluated for six variants in five genes related to AMD. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were performed for prevalent and incident advanced AMD. An algorithm was developed and receiver operating characteristic curves and C statistics were calculated to assess the predictive ability of risk scores to discriminate progressors from nonprogressors. All genetic polymorphisms were independently related to prevalence of advanced AMD, controlling for genetic factors, smoking, BMI, and AREDS treatment. Multivariate odds ratios (ORs) were 3.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-7.1) for CFH Y402H; 3.7 (95% CI, 1.6-8.4) for CFH rs1410996; 25.4 (95% CI, 8.6-75.1) for LOC387715 A69S (ARMS2); 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1-0.7) for C2 E318D; 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1-0.5) for CFB; and 3.6 (95% CI, 1.4-9.4) for C3 R102G, comparing the homozygous risk/protective genotypes to the referent genotypes. For incident AMD, all these variants except CFB were significantly related to progression to advanced AMD, after controlling for baseline AMD grade and other factors, with ORs from 1.8 to 4.0 for presence of two risk alleles and 0.4 for the protective allele. An interaction was seen between CFH402H and treatment, after controlling for all genotypes. Smoking was independently related to AMD, with a multiplicative joint

The Accuracy of Physicians' Clinical Predictions of Survival in Patients With Advanced Cancer.

PubMed

Amano, Koji; Maeda, Isseki; Shimoyama, Satofumi; Shinjo, Takuya; Shirayama, Hiroto; Yamada, Takeshi; Ono, Shigeki; Yamamoto, Ryo; Yamamoto, Naoki; Shishido, Hideki; Shimizu, Mie; Kawahara, Masanori; Aoki, Shigeru; Demizu, Akira; Goshima, Masahiro; Goto, Keiji; Gyoda, Yasuaki; Hashimoto, Kotaro; Otomo, Sen; Sekimoto, Masako; Shibata, Takemi; Sugimoto, Yuka; Morita, Tatsuya

2015-08-01

Accurate prognoses are needed for patients with advanced cancer. To evaluate the accuracy of physicians' clinical predictions of survival (CPS) and assess the relationship between CPS and actual survival (AS) in patients with advanced cancer in palliative care units, hospital palliative care teams, and home palliative care services, as well as those receiving chemotherapy. This was a multicenter prospective cohort study conducted in 58 palliative care service centers in Japan. The palliative care physicians evaluated patients on the first day of admission and followed up all patients to their death or six months after enrollment. We evaluated the accuracy of CPS and assessed the relationship between CPS and AS in the four groups. We obtained a total of 2036 patients: 470, 764, 404, and 398 in hospital palliative care teams, palliative care units, home palliative care services, and chemotherapy, respectively. The proportion of accurate CPS (0.67-1.33 times AS) was 35% (95% CI 33-37%) in the total sample and ranged from 32% to 39% in each setting. While the proportion of patients living longer than CPS (pessimistic CPS) was 20% (95% CI 18-22%) in the total sample, ranging from 15% to 23% in each setting, the proportion of patients living shorter than CPS (optimistic CPS) was 45% (95% CI 43-47%) in the total sample, ranging from 43% to 49% in each setting. Physicians tend to overestimate when predicting survival in all palliative care patients, including those receiving chemotherapy. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Plasma genetic and genomic abnormalities predict treatment response and clinical outcome in advanced prostate cancer.

PubMed

Xia, Shu; Kohli, Manish; Du, Meijun; Dittmar, Rachel L; Lee, Adam; Nandy, Debashis; Yuan, Tiezheng; Guo, Yongchen; Wang, Yuan; Tschannen, Michael R; Worthey, Elizabeth; Jacob, Howard; See, William; Kilari, Deepak; Wang, Xuexia; Hovey, Raymond L; Huang, Chiang-Ching; Wang, Liang

2015-06-30

Liquid biopsies, examinations of tumor components in body fluids, have shown promise for predicting clinical outcomes. To evaluate tumor-associated genomic and genetic variations in plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and their associations with treatment response and overall survival, we applied whole genome and targeted sequencing to examine the plasma cfDNAs derived from 20 patients with advanced prostate cancer. Sequencing-based genomic abnormality analysis revealed locus-specific gains or losses that were common in prostate cancer, such as 8q gains, AR amplifications, PTEN losses and TMPRSS2-ERG fusions. To estimate tumor burden in cfDNA, we developed a Plasma Genomic Abnormality (PGA) score by summing the most significant copy number variations. Cox regression analysis showed that PGA scores were significantly associated with overall survival (p < 0.04). After androgen deprivation therapy or chemotherapy, targeted sequencing showed significant mutational profile changes in genes involved in androgen biosynthesis, AR activation, DNA repair, and chemotherapy resistance. These changes may reflect the dynamic evolution of heterozygous tumor populations in response to these treatments. These results strongly support the feasibility of using non-invasive liquid biopsies as potential tools to study biological mechanisms underlying therapy-specific resistance and to predict disease progression in advanced prostate cancer.

Preliminary microphysical characterization of precipitation at ground over Antarctica coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberto, Nicoletta; Adirosi, Elisa; Montopoli, Mario; Baldini, Luca; Dietrich, Stefano; Porcù, Federico

2017-04-01

processing PSD spectra. Software provided by disdrometer manufacturer assumes spherical shape to compute the size and the fall velocity of the particle. In the case of solid precipitation, this assumption can be unrealistic. However, averaging over a long time the influence of irregular shape of the particles can be reduced. Despite this limit, the Parsivel disdrometer has been used in several study to measure falling snow. In this work, some preliminary measurements from OTT Parsivel at MSZ are presented. In particular, the PSD collected during summer season 2016-2017 are analyzed in order to infer microphysical characteristics of snows in Antarctica. A specific methodology to estimate the reflectivity factor and the snow rate from snow size spectra collected by Parsivel is investigated. Microphysical properties of Antarctica precipitating clouds, in particular PSD, are compared to measurements collected by disdrometer during snow events in other regions, such as the data collected during the GPM Cold-season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) in Ontario, Canada.

Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt.~Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhomse, S. S.; Emmerson, K. M.; Mann, G. W.; Bellouin, N.; Carslaw, K. S.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Hommel, R.; Abraham, N. L.; Telford, P.; Braesicke, P.; Dalvi, M.; Johnson, C. E.; O'Connor, F.; Morgenstern, O.; Pyle, J. A.; Deshler, T.; Zawodny, J. M.; Thomason, L. W.

2014-10-01

) measurements from Laramie, Wyoming, USA (41° N). Overall, the model captures remarkably well the complex variations in particle concentration profiles across the different OPC size channels. However, for the 19 to 27 km injection height-range used here, both runs have a modest high bias in the lowermost stratosphere for the finest particles (radii less than 250 nm), and the decay timescale is longer in the model for these particles, with a much later return to background conditions. Also, whereas the 10 Tg run compared best to the satellite measurements, a significant low bias is apparent in the coarser size channels in the volcanically perturbed lower stratosphere. Overall, our results suggest that, with appropriate calibration, aerosol microphysics models are capable of capturing the observed variation in particle size distribution in the stratosphere across both volcanically perturbed and quiescent conditions. Furthermore, additional sensitivity simulations suggest that predictions with the models are robust to uncertainties in sub-grid particle formation and nucleation rates in the stratosphere.

APPLICATION OF ADVANCED IN VITRO TECHNIQUES TO MEASURE, UNDERSTAND AND PREDICT THE KINETICS AND MECHANISMS OF XENOBIOTIC METABOLISM

EPA Science Inventory

We have developed a research program in metabolism that involves numerous collaborators across EPA as well as other federal and academic labs. A primary goal is to develop and apply advanced in vitro techniques to measure, understand and predict the kinetics and mechanisms of xen...

Applying the WRF Double-Moment Six-Class Microphysics Scheme in the GRAPES_Meso Model: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Meng; Wang, Hong; Zhang, Xiaoye; Peng, Yue; Che, Huizheng

2018-04-01

This study incorporated the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model double-moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme into the mesoscale version of the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES_Meso). A rainfall event that occurred during 3-5 June 2015 around Beijing was simulated by using the WDM6, the WRF single-moment 6-class scheme (WSM6), and the NCEP 5-class scheme, respectively. The results show that both the distribution and magnitude of the rainfall simulated with WDM6 were more consistent with the observation. Compared with WDM6, WSM6 simulated larger cloud liquid water content, which provided more water vapor for graupel growth, leading to increased precipitation in the cold-rain processes. For areas with the warmrain processes, the sensitivity experiments using WDM6 showed that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration led to enhanced CCN activation ratio and larger cloud droplet number concentration ( N c) but decreased cloud droplet effective diameter. The formation of more small-size cloud droplets resulted in a decrease in raindrop number concentration ( N r), inhibiting the warm-rain processes, thus gradually decreasing the amount of precipitation. For areas mainly with the cold-rain processes, the overall amount of precipitation increased; however, it gradually decreased when the CCN number concentration reached a certain magnitude. Hence, the effect of CCN number concentration on precipitation exhibits significant differences in different rainfall areas of the same precipitation event.

A Multi-Moment Bulkwater Ice Microphysics Scheme with Consideration of the Adaptive Growth Habit and Apparent Density for Pristine Ice in the WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, T. C.; Chen, J. P.; Dearden, C.

2014-12-01

The wide variety of ice crystal shapes and growth habits makes it a complicated issue in cloud models. This study developed the bulk ice adaptive habit parameterization based on the theoretical approach of Chen and Lamb (1994) and introduced a 6-class hydrometeors double-moment (mass and number) bulk microphysics scheme with gamma-type size distribution function. Both the proposed schemes have been implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) model forming a new multi-moment bulk microphysics scheme. Two new moments of ice crystal shape and volume are included for tracking pristine ice's adaptive habit and apparent density. A closure technique is developed to solve the time evolution of the bulk moments. For the verification of the bulk ice habit parameterization, some parcel-type (zero-dimension) calculations were conducted and compared with binned numerical calculations. The results showed that: a flexible size spectrum is important in numerical accuracy, the ice shape can significantly enhance the diffusional growth, and it is important to consider the memory of growth habit (adaptive growth) under varying environmental conditions. Also, the derived results with the 3-moment method were much closer to the binned calculations. A field campaign of DIAMET was selected to simulate in the WRF model for real-case studies. The simulations were performed with the traditional spherical ice and the new adaptive shape schemes to evaluate the effect of crystal habits. Some main features of narrow rain band, as well as the embedded precipitation cells, in the cold front case were well captured by the model. Furthermore, the simulations produced a good agreement in the microphysics against the aircraft observations in ice particle number concentration, ice crystal aspect ratio, and deposition heating rate especially within the temperature region of ice secondary multiplication production.

Retrieval of aerosol optical and micro-physical properties with 2D-MAX-DOAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, Ivan; Coburn, Sean; Hostetler, Chris; Ferrare, Rich; Hair, Johnathan; Kassianov, Evgueni; Barnard, James; Berg, Larry; Schmid, Beat; Tomlinson, Jason; Hodges, Gary; Lantz, Kathy; Wagner, Thomas; Volkamer, Rainer

2015-04-01

Recent retrievals of 2 dimensional (2D) Multi-AXis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (2D-MAX-DOAS) have highlighted its importance in order to infer diurnal horizontal in-homogeneities around the measurement site. In this work, we expand the capabilities of 2D measurements in order to estimate simultaneously aerosol optical and micro-physical properties. Specifically, we present a retrieval method to obtain: (1) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) in the boundary layer (BL) and free troposphere (FT) and (2) the effective complex refractive index and the effective radius of the aerosol column size distribution. The retrieval method to obtain AOT is based on an iterative comparison of measured normalized radiances, oxygen collision pair (O4), and absolute Raman Scattering Probability (RSP) with the forward model calculations derived with the radiative transfer model McArtim based on defined aerosol extinction profiles. Once the aerosol load is determined we use multiple scattering phase functions and single scattering albedo (SSA) obtained with Mie calculations which then constrain the RTM to forward model solar almucantar normalized radiances. The simulated almucantar normalized radiances are then compared to the measured normalized radiances. The best-fit, determined by minimizing the root mean square, retrieves the complex refractive index, and effective radius. We apply the retrieval approach described above to measurements carried out during the 2012 intensive operation period of the Two Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) held on Cape Cod, MA, USA. Results are presented for two ideal case studies with both large and small aerosol loading and similar air mass outflow from the northeast coast of the US over the West Atlantic Ocean. The aerosol optical properties are compared with several independent instruments, including the NASA Langley airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2) for highly resolved extinction profiles during the overpasses, and with the

Predictive value of diminutive colonic adenoma trial: the PREDICT trial.

PubMed

Schoenfeld, Philip; Shad, Javaid; Ormseth, Eric; Coyle, Walter; Cash, Brooks; Butler, James; Schindler, William; Kikendall, Walter J; Furlong, Christopher; Sobin, Leslie H; Hobbs, Christine M; Cruess, David; Rex, Douglas

2003-05-01

Diminutive adenomas (1-9 mm in diameter) are frequently found during colon cancer screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS). This trial assessed the predictive value of these diminutive adenomas for advanced adenomas in the proximal colon. In a multicenter, prospective cohort trial, we matched 200 patients with normal FS and 200 patients with diminutive adenomas on FS for age and gender. All patients underwent colonoscopy. The presence of advanced adenomas (adenoma >or= 10 mm in diameter, villous adenoma, adenoma with high grade dysplasia, and colon cancer) and adenomas (any size) was recorded. Before colonoscopy, patients completed questionnaires about risk factors for adenomas. The prevalence of advanced adenomas in the proximal colon was similar in patients with diminutive adenomas and patients with normal FS (6% vs. 5.5%, respectively) (relative risk, 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-2.6). Diminutive adenomas on FS did not accurately predict advanced adenomas in the proximal colon: sensitivity, 52% (95% CI, 32%-72%); specificity, 50% (95% CI, 49%-51%); positive predictive value, 6% (95% CI, 4%-8%); and negative predictive value, 95% (95% CI, 92%-97%). Male gender (odds ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01-2.61) was associated with an increased risk of proximal colon adenomas. Diminutive adenomas on sigmoidoscopy may not accurately predict advanced adenomas in the proximal colon.

Advancement in Watershed Modelling Using Dynamic Lateral and Longitudinal Sediment (Dis)connectivity Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahoney, D. T.; al Aamery, N. M. H.; Fox, J.

2017-12-01

The authors find that sediment (dis)connectivity has seldom taken precedence within watershed models, and the present study advances this modeling framework and applies the modeling within a bedrock-controlled system. Sediment (dis)connectivity, defined as the detachment and transport of sediment from source to sink between geomorphic zones, is a major control on sediment transport. Given the availability of high resolution geospatial data, coupling sediment connectivity concepts within sediment prediction models offers an approach to simulate sediment sources and pathways within a watershed's sediment cascade. Bedrock controlled catchments are potentially unique due to the presence of rock outcrops causing longitudinal impedance to sediment transport pathways in turn impacting the longitudinal distribution of the energy gradient responsible for conveying sediment. Therefore, the authors were motivated by the need to formulate a sediment transport model that couples sediment (dis)connectivity knowledge to predict sediment flux for bedrock controlled catchments. A watershed-scale sediment transport model was formulated that incorporates sediment (dis)connectivity knowledge collected via field reconnaissance and predicts sediment flux through coupling with the Partheniades equation and sediment continuity model. Sediment (dis)connectivity was formulated by coupling probabilistic upland lateral connectivity prediction with instream longitudinal connectivity assessments via discretization of fluid and sediment pathways. Flux predictions from the upland lateral connectivity model served as an input to the instream longitudinal connectivity model. Disconnectivity in the instream model was simulated via the discretization of stream reaches due to barriers such as bedrock outcroppings and man-made check dams. The model was tested for a bedrock controlled catchment in Kentucky, USA for which extensive historic water and sediment flux data was available. Predicted sediment

The effect of mineral dust and soot aerosols on ice microphysics near the foothills of the Himalayas: A numerical investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Anupam; Padmakumari, B.; Maheskumar, R. S.; Chen, Jen-Ping

2016-05-01

This study investigates the influence of different ice nuclei (IN) species and their number concentrations on cloud ice production. The numerical simulation with different species of ice nuclei is investigated using an explicit bulk-water microphysical scheme in a Mesoscale Meteorological Model version 5 (MM5). The species dependent ice nucleation parameterization that is based on the classical nucleation theory has been implemented into the model. The IN species considered include dust and soot with two different concentrations (Low and High). The simulated cloud microphysical properties like droplet number concentration and droplet effective radii as well as macro-properties (equivalent potential temperature and relative humidity) are comparable with aircraft observations. When higher dust IN concentrations are considered, the simulation results showed good agreement with the cloud ice and cloud water mixing ratio from aircraft measurements during Cloud Aerosol Interactions and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. Relative importance of IN species is shown as compared to the homogeneous freezing nucleation process. The tendency of cloud ice production rates is also analyzed and found that dust IN is more efficient in producing cloud ice when compared to soot IN. The dust IN with high concentration can produce more surface precipitation than soot IN at the same concentration. This study highlights the need to improve the ice nucleation parameterization in numerical models.

Simulations of Hurricane Nadine (2012) during HS3 Using the NASA Unified WRF with Aerosol-Cloud Microphysics-Radiation Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, J. J.; Braun, S. A.; Sippel, J. A.; Tao, W. K.; Tao, Z.

2014-12-01

The impact of the SAL on the development and intensification of hurricanes has garnered significant attention in recent years. Many past studies have shown that synoptic outbreaks of Saharan dust, which usually occur from late spring to early fall and can extend from western Africa across the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean, can have impacts on hurricane genesis and subsequent intensity change. The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission is a multiyear NASA field campaign with the goal of improving understanding of hurricane formation and intensity change. One of HS3's primary science goals is to obtain measurements to help determine the extent to which the Saharan air layer impacts storm intensification. HS3 uses two of NASA's unmanned Global Hawk aircrafts equipped with three instruments each to measure characteristics of the storm environment and inner core. The Goddard microphysics and longwave/shortwave schemes in the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model have been coupled in real-time with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model in WRF-Chem to account for the direct (radiation) and indirect (microphysics) impact. NU-WRF with interactive aerosol-cloud-radiation physics is used to generate 30-member ensemble simulations of Nadine (2012) with and without the aerosol interactions. Preliminary conclusions related to the impact of the SAL on the evolution of Nadine from the HS3 observations and model output will be described.

Derivation and External Validation of Prediction Models for Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease Following Acute Kidney Injury.

PubMed

James, Matthew T; Pannu, Neesh; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R; Austin, Peter C; Tan, Zhi; McArthur, Eric; Manns, Braden J; Tonelli, Marcello; Wald, Ron; Quinn, Robert R; Ravani, Pietro; Garg, Amit X

2017-11-14

Some patients will develop chronic kidney disease after a hospitalization with acute kidney injury; however, no risk-prediction tools have been developed to identify high-risk patients requiring follow-up. To derive and validate predictive models for progression of acute kidney injury to advanced chronic kidney disease. Data from 2 population-based cohorts of patients with a prehospitalization estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of more than 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 and who had survived hospitalization with acute kidney injury (defined by a serum creatinine increase during hospitalization > 0.3 mg/dL or > 50% of their prehospitalization baseline), were used to derive and validate multivariable prediction models. The risk models were derived from 9973 patients hospitalized in Alberta, Canada (April 2004-March 2014, with follow-up to March 2015). The risk models were externally validated with data from a cohort of 2761 patients hospitalized in Ontario, Canada (June 2004-March 2012, with follow-up to March 2013). Demographic, laboratory, and comorbidity variables measured prior to discharge. Advanced chronic kidney disease was defined by a sustained reduction in eGFR less than 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 for at least 3 months during the year after discharge. All participants were followed up for up to 1 year. The participants (mean [SD] age, 66 [15] years in the derivation and internal validation cohorts and 69 [11] years in the external validation cohort; 40%-43% women per cohort) had a mean (SD) baseline serum creatinine level of 1.0 (0.2) mg/dL and more than 20% had stage 2 or 3 acute kidney injury. Advanced chronic kidney disease developed in 408 (2.7%) of 9973 patients in the derivation cohort and 62 (2.2%) of 2761 patients in the external validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, 6 variables were independently associated with the outcome: older age, female sex, higher baseline serum creatinine value, albuminuria, greater severity of acute kidney injury, and higher

Improved Intraseasonal Variability in the NASA GEOS AGCM with 2-moment Microphysics and a Shallow Cumulus Parameterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, Nathan; Barahona, Donifan; Achuthavarier, Deepthi

2017-01-01

Weather and climate models have long struggled to realistically simulate the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Here we present a significant improvement in MJO simulation in NASA's GEOS atmospheric model with the implementation of 2-moment microphysics and the UW shallow cumulus parameterization. Comparing ten-year runs (2007-2016) with the old (1mom) and updated (2mom+shlw) model physics, the updated model has increased intra-seasonal variance with increased coherence. Surface fluxes and OLR are found to vary more realistically with precipitation, and a moisture budget suggests that changes in rain reevaporation and the cloud longwave feedback help support heavy precipitation. Preliminary results also show improved MJO hindcast skill.

Weather Prediction Improvement Using Advanced Satellite Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Einaudi, Franco; Uccellini, L.; Purdom, J.; Rogers, D.; Gelaro, R.; Dodge, J.; Atlas, R.; Lord, S.

2001-01-01

We discuss in this paper some of the problems that exist today in the fall utilization of satellite data to improve weather forecasts and we propose specific recommendations to solve them. This discussion can be viewed as an aspect of the general debate on how best to organize the transition from research to operational satellites and how to evaluate the impact of a research instrument on numerical weather predictions. A method for providing this transition is offered by the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP). This mission will bridge the time between the present NOAA and Department of Defense (DOD) polar orbiting missions and the initiation of the converged NPOESS series and will evaluate some of the Earth Observing System (EOS) instruments as appropriate for operational missions. Thus, this mission can be viewed as an effort to meet the operational requirements of NOAA and DOD and the research requirements of NASA. More generally, however, it can be said that the process of going from the conception of new, more advanced instruments to their operational implementation and full utilization by the weather forecast communities is not optimal. Instruments developed for research purposes may have insufficient funding to explore their potential operational capabilities. Furthermore, instrument development programs designed for operational satellites typically have insufficient funding for assimilation algorithms needed to transform the satellite observations into data that can be used by sophisticated global weather forecast models. As a result, years often go by before satellite data are efficiently used for operational forecasts. NASA and NOAA each have unique expertise in the design of satellite instruments, their use for basic and applied research and their utilization in weather and climate research. At a time of limited resources, the two agencies must combine their efforts to work toward common

Properties of jet engine combustion particles during the PartEmis experiment: Microphysics and Chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petzold, A.; Stein, C.; Nyeki, S.; Gysel, M.; Weingartner, E.; Baltensperger, U.; Giebl, H.; Hitzenberger, R.; Döpelheuer, A.; Vrchoticky, S.; Puxbaum, H.; Johnson, M.; Hurley, C. D.; Marsh, R.; Wilson, C. W.

2003-07-01

The particles emitted from an aircraft engine combustor were investigated in the European project PartEmis. Measured aerosol properties were mass and number concentration, size distribution, mixing state, thermal stability of internally mixed particles, hygroscopicity, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation potential. The combustor operation conditions corresponded to modern and older engine gas path temperatures at cruise altitude, with fuel sulphur contents (FSC) of 50, 410, and 1270 μg g-1. Operation conditions and FSC showed only a weak influence on the microphysical aerosol properties, except for hygroscopic and CCN properties. Particles of size D >= 30 nm were almost entirely internally mixed. Particles of sizes D < 20 nm showed a considerable volume fraction of compounds that volatilise at 390 K (10-15%) and 573 K (4-10%), while respective fractions decreased to <5% for particles of size D >= 50 nm.

In situ measurements of cloud microphysics and aerosol over coastal Antarctica during the MAC campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Shea, Sebastian J.; Choularton, Thomas W.; Flynn, Michael; Bower, Keith N.; Gallagher, Martin; Crosier, Jonathan; Williams, Paul; Crawford, Ian; Fleming, Zoë L.; Listowski, Constantino; Kirchgaessner, Amélie; Ladkin, Russell S.; Lachlan-Cope, Thomas

2017-11-01

During austral summer 2015, the Microphysics of Antarctic Clouds (MAC) field campaign collected unique and detailed airborne and ground-based in situ measurements of cloud and aerosol properties over coastal Antarctica and the Weddell Sea. This paper presents the first results from the experiment and discusses the key processes important in this region, which is critical to predicting future climate change. The sampling was predominantly of stratus clouds, at temperatures between -20 and 0 °C. These clouds were dominated by supercooled liquid water droplets, which had a median concentration of 113 cm-3 and an interquartile range of 86 cm-3. Both cloud liquid water content and effective radius increased closer to cloud top. The cloud droplet effective radius increased from 4 ± 2 µm near cloud base to 8 ± 3 µm near cloud top. Cloud ice particle concentrations were highly variable with the ice tending to occur in small, isolated patches. Below approximately 1000 m, glaciated cloud regions were more common at higher temperatures; however, the clouds were still predominantly liquid throughout. When ice was present at temperatures higher than -10 °C, secondary ice production most likely through the Hallett-Mossop mechanism led to ice concentrations 1 to 3 orders of magnitude higher than the number predicted by commonly used primary ice nucleation parameterisations. The drivers of the ice crystal variability are investigated. No clear dependence on the droplet size distribution was found. The source of first ice in the clouds remains uncertain but may include contributions from biogenic particles, blowing snow or other surface ice production mechanisms. The concentration of large aerosols (diameters 0.5 to 1.6 µm) decreased with altitude and were depleted in air masses that originated over the Antarctic continent compared to those more heavily influenced by the Southern Ocean and sea ice regions. The dominant aerosol in the region was hygroscopic in nature, with

Advanced error-prediction LDPC with temperature compensation for highly reliable SSDs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokutomi, Tsukasa; Tanakamaru, Shuhei; Iwasaki, Tomoko Ogura; Takeuchi, Ken

2015-09-01

To improve the reliability of NAND Flash memory based solid-state drives (SSDs), error-prediction LDPC (EP-LDPC) has been proposed for multi-level-cell (MLC) NAND Flash memory (Tanakamaru et al., 2012, 2013), which is effective for long retention times. However, EP-LDPC is not as effective for triple-level cell (TLC) NAND Flash memory, because TLC NAND Flash has higher error rates and is more sensitive to program-disturb error. Therefore, advanced error-prediction LDPC (AEP-LDPC) has been proposed for TLC NAND Flash memory (Tokutomi et al., 2014). AEP-LDPC can correct errors more accurately by precisely describing the error phenomena. In this paper, the effects of AEP-LDPC are investigated in a 2×nm TLC NAND Flash memory with temperature characterization. Compared with LDPC-with-BER-only, the SSD's data-retention time is increased by 3.4× and 9.5× at room-temperature (RT) and 85 °C, respectively. Similarly, the acceptable BER is increased by 1.8× and 2.3×, respectively. Moreover, AEP-LDPC can correct errors with pre-determined tables made at higher temperatures to shorten the measurement time before shipping. Furthermore, it is found that one table can cover behavior over a range of temperatures in AEP-LDPC. As a result, the total table size can be reduced to 777 kBytes, which makes this approach more practical.

Observing microphysical structures and hydrometeor phase in convection with ARM active sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riihimaki, L.; Comstock, J. M.; Luke, E. P.; Thorsen, T. J.; Fu, Q.

2016-12-01

The existence and distribution of super-cooled liquid water within convective clouds impacts the microphysical processes responsible for cloud radiative and lifetime effects. Yet few observations of cloud phase are available within convection and associated stratiform anvils. Here we identify super-cooled liquid layers within convection and associated stratiform clouds using measured radar Doppler spectra from vertically pointing Ka-band cloud radar and Raman Lidar, capitalizing on the strengths of both instruments. Observations from these sensors are used to show that liquid exists in patches within the cloud, rather than in uniform layers, impacting the growth and formation of ice. While a depolarization lidar like the Raman Lidar is a trusted measurement for identifying super-cooled liquid, the lidar attenuates at an optical depth of around three, limiting its ability to probe the full cloud. The use of the radar Doppler spectra is particularly valuable for this purpose because it allows observations within optically thicker clouds. We demonstrate a new method for identifying super-cooled liquid objectively from the radar Doppler spectra using machine-learning techniques.

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

2018-03-01

Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

A Cloud Microphysics Model for the Gas Giant Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palotai, Csaba J.; Le Beau, Raymond P.; Shankar, Ramanakumar; Flom, Abigail; Lashley, Jacob; McCabe, Tyler

2016-10-01

Recent studies have significantly increased the quality and the number of observed meteorological features on the jovian planets, revealing banded cloud structures and discrete features. Our current understanding of the formation and decay of those clouds also defines the conceptual modes about the underlying atmospheric dynamics. The full interpretation of the new observational data set and the related theories requires modeling these features in a general circulation model (GCM). Here, we present details of our bulk cloud microphysics model that was designed to simulate clouds in the Explicit Planetary Hybrid-Isentropic Coordinate (EPIC) GCM for the jovian planets. The cloud module includes hydrological cycles for each condensable species that consist of interactive vapor, cloud and precipitation phases and it also accounts for latent heating and cooling throughout the transfer processes (Palotai and Dowling, 2008. Icarus, 194, 303-326). Previously, the self-organizing clouds in our simulations successfully reproduced the vertical and horizontal ammonia cloud structure in the vicinity of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and Oval BA (Palotai et al. 2014, Icarus, 232, 141-156). In our recent work, we extended this model to include water clouds on Jupiter and Saturn, ammonia clouds on Saturn, and methane clouds on Uranus and Neptune. Details of our cloud parameterization scheme, our initial results and their comparison with observations will be shown. The latest version of EPIC model is available as open source software from NASA's PDS Atmospheres Node.

Simulation of the effects of aerosol on mixed-phase orographic clouds using the WRF model with a detailed bin microphysics scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Hui; Yin, Yan; Jin, Lianji; Chen, Qian; Chen, Jinghua

2015-08-01

The Weather Research Forecast (WRF) mesoscale model coupled with a detailed bin microphysics scheme is used to investigate the impact of aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei on orographic clouds and precipitation. A mixed-phase orographic cloud developed under two scenarios of aerosol (a typical continental background and a relatively polluted urban condition) and ice nuclei over an idealized mountain is simulated. The results show that, when the initial aerosol condition is changed from the relatively clean case to the polluted scenario, more droplets are activated, leading to a delay in precipitation, but the precipitation amount over the terrain is increased by about 10%. A detailed analysis of the microphysical processes indicates that ice-phase particles play an important role in cloud development, and their contribution to precipitation becomes more important with increasing aerosol particle concentrations. The growth of ice-phase particles through riming and Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen regime is more effective under more polluted conditions, mainly due to the increased number of droplets with a diameter of 10-30 µm. Sensitivity tests also show that a tenfold increase in the concentration of ice crystals formed from ice nucleation leads to about 7% increase in precipitation, and the sensitivity of the precipitation to changes in the concentration and size distribution of aerosol particles is becoming less pronounced when the concentration of ice crystals is also increased.

Initial results on computational performance of Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) architecture: implementation of the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Purdue-Lin microphysics scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mielikainen, Jarno; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen H.

2014-10-01

Purdue-Lin scheme is a relatively sophisticated microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The scheme includes six classes of hydro meteors: water vapor, cloud water, raid, cloud ice, snow and graupel. The scheme is very suitable for massively parallel computation as there are no interactions among horizontal grid points. In this paper, we accelerate the Purdue Lin scheme using Intel Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) hardware. The Intel Xeon Phi is a high performance coprocessor consists of up to 61 cores. The Xeon Phi is connected to a CPU via the PCI Express (PICe) bus. In this paper, we will discuss in detail the code optimization issues encountered while tuning the Purdue-Lin microphysics Fortran code for Xeon Phi. In particularly, getting a good performance required utilizing multiple cores, the wide vector operations and make efficient use of memory. The results show that the optimizations improved performance of the original code on Xeon Phi 5110P by a factor of 4.2x. Furthermore, the same optimizations improved performance on Intel Xeon E5-2603 CPU by a factor of 1.2x compared to the original code.

Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

1992-01-01

In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

Modeling Aerosol Microphysical and Radiative Effects on Clouds and Implications for the Effects of Black and Brown Carbon on Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ten Hoeve, J. E.; Jacobson, M. Z.

2010-12-01

Satellite observational studies have found an increase in cloud fraction (CF) and cloud optical depth (COD) with increasing aerosol optical depth (AOD) followed by a decreasing CF/COD with increasing AOD at higher AODs over the Amazon Basin. The shape of this curve is similar to that of a boomerang, and thus the effect has been dubbed the "boomerang effect.” The increase in CF/COD with increasing AOD at low AODs is ascribed to the first and second indirect effects and is referred to as a microphysical effect of aerosols on clouds. The decrease in CF/COD at higher AODs is ascribed to enhanced warming of clouds due to absorbing aerosols, either as inclusions in drops or interstitially between drops. This is referred to as a radiative effect. To date, the interaction of the microphysical and radiative effects has not been simulated with a regional or global computer model. Here, we simulate the boomerang effect with the nested global-through-urban climate, air pollution, weather forecast model, GATOR-GCMOM, for the Amazon biomass burning season of 2006. We also compare the model with an extensive set of data, including satellite data from MODIS, TRMM, and CALIPSO, in situ surface observations, upper-air data, and AERONET data. Biomass burning emissions are obtained from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv2), and are combined with MODIS land cover data along with biomass burning emission factors. A high-resolution domain, nested within three increasingly coarser domains, is employed over the heaviest biomass burning region within the arc of deforestation. Modeled trends in cloud properties with aerosol loading compare well with MODIS observed trends, allowing causation of these observed correlations, including of the boomerang effect, to be determined by model results. The impact of aerosols on various cloud parameters, such as cloud optical thickness, cloud fraction, cloud liquid water/ice content, and precipitation, are shown through differences between

Retrieval of Aerosol Microphysical Properties Based on the Optimal Estimation Method: Information Content Analysis for Satellite Polarimetric Remote Sensing Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, W. Z.; Li, Z. Q.; Zheng, F. X.; Qie, L. L.

2018-04-01

This paper evaluates the information content for the retrieval of key aerosol microphysical and surface properties for multispectral single-viewing satellite polarimetric measurements cantered at 410, 443, 555, 670, 865, 1610 and 2250 nm over bright land. To conduct the information content analysis, the synthetic data are simulated by the Unified Linearized Vector Radiative Transfer Model (UNLVTM) with the intensity and polarization together over bare soil surface for various scenarios. Following the optimal estimation theory, a principal component analysis method is employed to reconstruct the multispectral surface reflectance from 410 nm to 2250 nm, and then integrated with a linear one-parametric BPDF model to represent the contribution of polarized surface reflectance, thus further to decouple the surface-atmosphere contribution from the TOA measurements. Focusing on two different aerosol models with the aerosol optical depth equal to 0.8 at 550 nm, the total DFS and DFS component of each retrieval aerosol and surface parameter are analysed. The DFS results show that the key aerosol microphysical properties, such as the fine- and coarse-mode columnar volume concentration, the effective radius and the real part of complex refractive index at 550 nm, could be well retrieved with the surface parameters simultaneously over bare soil surface type. The findings of this study can provide the guidance to the inversion algorithm development over bright surface land by taking full use of the single-viewing satellite polarimetric measurements.

The Separate Physics and Dynamics Experiment (SPADE) framework for determining resolution awareness: A case study of microphysics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gustafson, William I.; Ma, Po-Lun; Xiao, Heng

2013-08-29

The ability to use multi-resolution dynamical cores for weather and climate modeling is pushing the atmospheric community towards developing scale aware or, more specifically, resolution aware parameterizations that will function properly across a range of grid spacings. Determining the resolution dependence of specific model parameterizations is difficult due to strong resolution dependencies in many pieces of the model. This study presents the Separate Physics and Dynamics Experiment (SPADE) framework that can be used to isolate the resolution dependent behavior of specific parameterizations without conflating resolution dependencies from other portions of the model. To demonstrate the SPADE framework, the resolution dependencemore » of the Morrison microphysics from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Morrison-Gettelman microphysics from the Community Atmosphere Model are compared for grid spacings spanning the cloud modeling gray zone. It is shown that the Morrison scheme has stronger resolution dependence than Morrison-Gettelman, and that the ability of Morrison-Gettelman to use partial cloud fractions is not the primary reason for this difference. This study also discusses how to frame the issue of resolution dependence, the meaning of which has often been assumed, but not clearly expressed in the atmospheric modeling community. It is proposed that parameterization resolution dependence can be expressed in terms of "resolution dependence of the first type," RA1, which implies that the parameterization behavior converges towards observations with increasing resolution, or as "resolution dependence of the second type," RA2, which requires that the parameterization reproduces the same behavior across a range of grid spacings when compared at a given coarser resolution. RA2 behavior is considered the ideal, but brings with it serious implications due to limitations of parameterizations to accurately estimate reality with coarse grid spacing. The

Derivation and External Validation of Prediction Models for Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease Following Acute Kidney Injury

PubMed Central

Pannu, Neesh; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R.; Austin, Peter C.; Tan, Zhi; McArthur, Eric; Manns, Braden J.; Tonelli, Marcello; Wald, Ron; Quinn, Robert R.; Ravani, Pietro; Garg, Amit X.

2017-01-01

Importance Some patients will develop chronic kidney disease after a hospitalization with acute kidney injury; however, no risk-prediction tools have been developed to identify high-risk patients requiring follow-up. Objective To derive and validate predictive models for progression of acute kidney injury to advanced chronic kidney disease. Design, Setting, and Participants Data from 2 population-based cohorts of patients with a prehospitalization estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of more than 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 and who had survived hospitalization with acute kidney injury (defined by a serum creatinine increase during hospitalization > 0.3 mg/dL or > 50% of their prehospitalization baseline), were used to derive and validate multivariable prediction models. The risk models were derived from 9973 patients hospitalized in Alberta, Canada (April 2004-March 2014, with follow-up to March 2015). The risk models were externally validated with data from a cohort of 2761 patients hospitalized in Ontario, Canada (June 2004-March 2012, with follow-up to March 2013). Exposures Demographic, laboratory, and comorbidity variables measured prior to discharge. Main Outcomes and Measures Advanced chronic kidney disease was defined by a sustained reduction in eGFR less than 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 for at least 3 months during the year after discharge. All participants were followed up for up to 1 year. Results The participants (mean [SD] age, 66 [15] years in the derivation and internal validation cohorts and 69 [11] years in the external validation cohort; 40%-43% women per cohort) had a mean (SD) baseline serum creatinine level of 1.0 (0.2) mg/dL and more than 20% had stage 2 or 3 acute kidney injury. Advanced chronic kidney disease developed in 408 (2.7%) of 9973 patients in the derivation cohort and 62 (2.2%) of 2761 patients in the external validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, 6 variables were independently associated with the outcome: older age, female sex, higher

HOLIMO II: a digital holographic instrument for ground-based in-situ observations of microphysical properties of mixed-phase clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henneberger, J.; Fugal, J. P.; Stetzer, O.; Lohmann, U.

2013-05-01

Measurements of the microphysical properties of mixed-phase clouds with high spatial resolution are important to understand the processes inside these clouds. This work describes the design and characterization of the newly developed ground-based field instrument HOLIMO II (HOLographic Imager for Microscopic Objects II). HOLIMO II uses digital in-line holography to in-situ image cloud particles in a well defined sample volume. By an automated algorithm, two-dimensional images of single cloud particles between 6 and 250 μm in diameter are obtained and the size spectrum, the concentration and water content of clouds are calculated. By testing the sizing algorithm with monosized beads a systematic overestimation near the resolution limit was found, which has been used to correct the measurements. Field measurements from the high altitude research station Jungfraujoch, Switzerland, are presented. The measured number size distributions are in good agreement with parallel measurements by a fog monitor (FM-100, DMT, Boulder USA). The field data shows that HOLIMO II is capable of measuring the number size distribution with a high spatial resolution and determines ice crystal shape, thus providing a method of quantifying variations in microphysical properties. A case study over a period of 8 h has been analyzed, exploring the transition from a liquid to a mixed-phase cloud, which is the longest observation of a cloud with a holographic device. During the measurement period, the cloud does not completely glaciate, contradicting earlier assumptions of the dominance of the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process.

HOLIMO II: a digital holographic instrument for ground-based in situ observations of microphysical properties of mixed-phase clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henneberger, J.; Fugal, J. P.; Stetzer, O.; Lohmann, U.

2013-11-01

Measurements of the microphysical properties of mixed-phase clouds with high spatial resolution are important to understand the processes inside these clouds. This work describes the design and characterization of the newly developed ground-based field instrument HOLIMO II (HOLographic Imager for Microscopic Objects II). HOLIMO II uses digital in-line holography to in situ image cloud particles in a well-defined sample volume. By an automated algorithm, two-dimensional images of single cloud particles between 6 and 250 μm in diameter are obtained and the size spectrum, the concentration and water content of clouds are calculated. By testing the sizing algorithm with monosized beads a systematic overestimation near the resolution limit was found, which has been used to correct the measurements. Field measurements from the high altitude research station Jungfraujoch, Switzerland, are presented. The measured number size distributions are in good agreement with parallel measurements by a fog monitor (FM-100, DMT, Boulder USA). The field data shows that HOLIMO II is capable of measuring the number size distribution with a high spatial resolution and determines ice crystal shape, thus providing a method of quantifying variations in microphysical properties. A case study over a period of 8 h has been analyzed, exploring the transition from a liquid to a mixed-phase cloud, which is the longest observation of a cloud with a holographic device. During the measurement period, the cloud does not completely glaciate, contradicting earlier assumptions of the dominance of the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process.

Schneefernerhaus as a mountain research station for clouds and turbulence - Part 2: Cloud microphysics and fine-scale turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siebert, H.; Shaw, R. A.; Ditas, J.; Schmeissner, T.; Malinowski, S. P.; Bodenschatz, E.; Xu, H.

2015-01-01

Mountain research stations are advantageous not only for long-term sampling of cloud properties, but also for measurements that prohibitively difficult to perform on airborne platforms due to the true air speed or adverse factors such as weight and complexity of the equipment necessary. Some cloud-turbulence measurements, especially Lagrangian in nature, fall into this category. We report results from simultaneous, high-resolution and collocated measurements of cloud microphysical and turbulence properties during several warm cloud events at the Umweltforschungsstation Schneefernerhaus (UFS) on Zugspitze in the German Alps. The data gathered was found to be representative of observations made with similar instrumentation in free clouds. The turbulence observed, shared all features known for high Reynolds number flows: it exhibited approximately Gaussian fluctuations for all three velocity components, a clearly defined inertial subrange following Kolmogorov scaling (power spectrum, and second and third order Eulerian structure functions), and highly intermittent velocity gradients, as well as approximately lognormal kinetic energy dissipation rates. The clouds were observed to have liquid water contents of order 1 g m-3, and size distributions typical of continental clouds, sometimes exhibiting long positive tails indicative of large drop production through turbulent mixing or coalescence growth. Dimensionless parameters relevant to cloud-turbulence interactions, the Stokes number and settling parameter, are in the range typically observed in atmospheric clouds. Observed fluctuations in droplet number concentration and diameter suggest a preference for inhomogeneous mixing. Finally, enhanced variance in liquid water content fluctuations is observed at high frequencies, and the scale break occurs at a value consistent with the independently estimated phase relaxation time from microphysical measurements.

A risk score for the prediction of advanced age-related macular degeneration: Development and validation in 2 prospective cohorts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We aimed to develop an eye specific model which used readily available information to predict risk for advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We used the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) as our training dataset, which consisted of the 4,507 participants (contributing 1,185 affected v...

FINAL REPORT (DE-FG02-97ER62338): Single-column modeling, GCM parameterizations, and ARM data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richard C. J. Somerville

2009-02-27

Our overall goal is the development of new and improved parameterizations of cloud-radiation effects and related processes, using ARM data at all three ARM sites, and the implementation and testing of these parameterizations in global models. To test recently developed prognostic parameterizations based on detailed cloud microphysics, we have compared SCM (single-column model) output with ARM observations at the SGP, NSA and TWP sites. We focus on the predicted cloud amounts and on a suite of radiative quantities strongly dependent on clouds, such as downwelling surface shortwave radiation. Our results demonstrate the superiority of parameterizations based on comprehensive treatments ofmore » cloud microphysics and cloud-radiative interactions. At the SGP and NSA sites, the SCM results simulate the ARM measurements well and are demonstrably more realistic than typical parameterizations found in conventional operational forecasting models. At the TWP site, the model performance depends strongly on details of the scheme, and the results of our diagnostic tests suggest ways to develop improved parameterizations better suited to simulating cloud-radiation interactions in the tropics generally. These advances have made it possible to take the next step and build on this progress, by incorporating our parameterization schemes in state-of-the-art three-dimensional atmospheric models, and diagnosing and evaluating the results using independent data. Because the improved cloud-radiation results have been obtained largely via implementing detailed and physically comprehensive cloud microphysics, we anticipate that improved predictions of hydrologic cycle components, and hence of precipitation, may also be achievable.« less

New microphysical volcanic forcing datasets for the Agung, El Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhomse, Sandip; Mann, Graham; Marshall, Lauren; Carslaw, Kenneth; Chipperfield, Martyn; Bellouin, Nicolas; Morgenstern, Olaf; Johnson, Colin; O'Connor, Fiona

2017-04-01

Major tropical volcanic eruptions inject huge amounts of SO2 directly into the stratosphere, and create a long-lasting perturbation to the stratospheric aerosol. The abruptly elevated aerosol has strong climate impacts, principally surface cooling via scattering incoming solar radiation. The enhanced tropical stratospheric aerosol can also absorb outgoing long wave radiation causing a warming of the stratosphere and subsequent complex composition-dynamics responses (e.g. Dhomse et al., 2015). In this presentation we apply the composition-climate model UM-UKCA with interactive stratospheric chemistry and aerosol microphysics (Dhomse et al., 2014) to assess the enhancement to the stratospheric aerosol and associated radiative forcings from the three largest tropical eruptions in the last 60 years: Mt Agung (February 1963), El Chichon (April 1982) and Mt. Pinatubo (June 1991). Accurately characterising the forcing signature from these major eruptions is important for attribution of recent climate change and volcanic effects have been identified as a key requirement for robust attribution of multi-decadal surface temperature trends (e.g. Marotzke and Forster, 2015). Aligning with the design of the ISA-MIP co-ordinated multi-model "Historical Eruption SO2 Emissions Assessment" (HErSEA), we have carried out 3-member ensemble of simulations with each of upper, low and mid-point best estimates for SO2 and injection height for each eruption. We evaluate simulated aerosol properties (e.g. extinction, AOD, effective radius, particle size distribution) against a range of satellite and in-situ observational datasets and assess stratospheric heating against temperature anomalies are compared against reanalysis and other datasets. References: Dhomse SS, Chipperfield MP, Feng W, Hossaini R, Mann GW, Santee ML (2015) Revisiting the hemispheric asymmetry in midlatitude ozone changes following the Mount Pinatubo eruption: A 3-D model study, Geophysical Research Letters, 42, pp.3038