Science.gov

Sample records for advanced microphysics prediction

  1. Next generation aerosol-cloud microphysics for advanced high-resolution climate predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Bennartz, Ralf; Hamilton, Kevin P; Phillips, Vaughan T.J.; Wang, Yuqing; Brenguier, Jean-Louis

    2013-01-14

    The three top-level project goals are: -We proposed to develop, test, and run a new, physically based, scale-independent microphysical scheme for those cloud processes that most strongly affect greenhouse gas scenarios, i.e. warm cloud microphysics. In particular, we propsed to address cloud droplet activation, autoconversion, and accretion. -The new, unified scheme was proposed to be derived and tested using the University of Hawaii's IPRC Regional Atmospheric Model (iRAM). -The impact of the new parameterizations on climate change scenarios will be studied. In particular, the sensitivity of cloud response to climate forcing from increased greenhouse gas concentrations will be assessed.

  2. A Step Towards an Advanced Parameterization of Cloud Microphysical Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beheng, K. D.

    2002-12-01

    Consideration of cloud microphysical properties and processes in atmospheric models usually requires reliable and accurate parameterizations. For describing all hydrometeor types by size distribution functions and corresponding budget equations comprising a multitude of processes in an adapted manner is by far too costly. An alternative is to only deal with certain integrals (i.e. moments of the size spectra as, e.g., water contents) and their tendency equations. Moreover, the parameter formulae should comply with the natural situation of having smaller (cloud) and larger (precipitation) particles which interact by collisions in a complex way. Many years ago this idea has been elaborated by Kessler (1969) for liquid (warm) clouds. Kessler presented a rate equation for the transformation of cloud water content to rainwater mass (autoconversion) which relies on high intuition and another one for accretion, i.e. for the increase of rainwater content by mutual collection of cloud droplets by raindrops, which is based on a simplistic evaluation of the collection integrals of the spectral budget equation for drops. This first approach to parameterize the evolution of rain water from cloud water is a very important one since almost all clouds start as liquid clouds. For a long time and also to date these so-called Kessler formulae were the only parameterization available for warm cloud processes. In adopting this idea corresponding formulations have also been derived and extensively applied for mixed and ice cloud microphysics. The drawback of Kesslers formulation is that it only uses (cloud and rain) water contents such that a differentiation between continental and maritime clouds exhibiting very different size spectra but identical water contents is not possible. To overcome this deficiency and to include typical cloud characteristics several authors extended Kessler's idea by formulating - in addition to the rates of change of mass contents - rates for the

  3. Sensitivity and dependence of mesoscale downscaled prediction results on different parameterizations of convection and cloud microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remesan, R.; Bellerby, T.

    2012-04-01

    These days as operational real-time flood forecasting and warning systems rely more on high resolution mesoscale models employed with coupling system of hydrological models. So it is inevitable to assess prediction sensitivity or disparity in collection with selection of different cumulus and microphysical parameterization schemes, to assess the possible uncertainties associated with mesoscale downscaling. This study investigates the role of physical parameterization in mesoscale model simulations on simulation of unprecedented heavy rainfall over Yorkshire-Humberside in United Kingdom during 1-14th March, 1999. The study has used a popular mesoscale numerical weather prediction model named Advanced Research Weather Research Forecast model (version 3.3) which was developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the USA. This study has performed a comprehensive evaluation of four cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) [Kian-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Grell-Devenyi ensemble (GD)] and five microphysical schemes Lin et al scheme, older Thompson scheme, new Thompson scheme, WRF Single Moment - 6 class scheme, and WRF Single Moment - 5 class scheme] to identify how their inclusion influences the mesoscale model's meteorological parameter estimation capabilities and related uncertainties in prediction. The case study was carried out at the Upper River Derwent catchment in Northern Yorkshire, England using both the ERA-40 reanalysis data and the land based observation data.

  4. Remote measurement of cloud microphysics and its influence in predicting high impact weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bipasha, Paul S.; Jinya, John

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the cloud microphysical processes and precise retrieval of parameters governing the same are crucial for weather and climate prediction. Advanced remote sensing sensors and techniques offer an opportunity for monitoring micro-level developments in cloud structure. . Using the observations from a visible and near-infrared lidar onboard CALIPSO satellite (part of A-train) , the spatial variation of cloud structure has been studied over the Tropical monsoon region . It is found that there is large variability in the cloud microphysical parameters manifesting in distinct precipitation regimes. In particular, the severe storms over this region are driven by processes which range from the synoptic to the microphysical scale. Using INSAT-3D data, retrieval of cloud microphysical parameters like effective radius (CER) and optical depth (COD) were carried out for tropical cyclone Phailine. It was observed that there is a general increase of CER in a top-down direction, characterizing the progressively increasing number and size of precipitation hydrometeors while approaching the cloud base. The distribution of CER relative to cloud top temperature for growing convective clouds has been investigated to reveal the evolution of the particles composing the clouds. It is seen that the relatively high concentration of large particles in the downdraft zone is closely related to the precipitation efficiency of the system. Similar study was also carried using MODIS observations for cyclones over Indian Ocean (2010-2013), in which we find that that the mean effective radius is 24 microns with standard deviation 4.56, mean optical depth is 21 with standard deviation 13.98, mean cloud fraction is 0.92 with standard deviation 0.13 and mainly ice phase is dominant. Thus the remote observations of microstructure of convective storms provide very crucial information about the maintenance and potential devastation likely to be associated with it. With the synergistic

  5. A comparison of cloud microphysical quantities with forecasts from cloud prediction models

    SciTech Connect

    Dunn, M.; Jensen, M.; Hogan, R.; O’Connor, E.; Huang, D.

    2010-03-15

    Numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, NCEP) are evaluated using ARM observational data collected at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Cloud forecasts generated by the models are compared with cloud microphysical quantities, retrieved using a variety of parameterizations. Information gained from this comparison will be utilized during the FASTER project, as models are evaluated for their ability to reproduce fast physical processes detected in the observations. Here the model performance is quantified against the observations through a statistical analysis. Observations from remote sensing instruments (radar, lidar, radiometer and radiosonde) are used to derive the cloud microphysical quantities: ice water content, liquid water content, ice effective radius and liquid effective radius. Unfortunately, discrepancies in the derived quantities arise when different retrieval schemes are applied to the observations. The uncertainty inherent in retrieving the microphysical quantities using various retrievals is estimated from the range of output microphysical values. ARM microphysical retrieval schemes (Microbase, Mace) are examined along with the CloudNet retrieval processing of data from the ARM sites for this purpose. Through the interfacing of CloudNet and “ARM” processing schemes an ARMNET product is produced and employed as accepted observations in the assessment of cloud model predictions.

  6. Advancements in the Representation of Cloud-Aerosol Microphysics in the GEOS-5 AGCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, D.; Oreopoulos, L.; Sud, Y.; Barahona, D.; Nemes, A.; Bhattacharjee, P.

    2011-01-01

    Despite numerous challenges, the physical parameterization of cloud-aerosol interactions in atmospheric GCMs has become a top priority for advancement because of our need to simulate and understand past, current, and future indirect effects of aerosols on clouds. The challenges stem from the involvement of wide range of cloud-scale dynamics and aerosol activation physical processes. Cloud dynamics modulate cloud areal extent and condensate, while aerosol activation depends on aerosol mass load, size distribution, internal mixing state, and nucleating properties, and ultimately determines cloud optical properties via particle sizes. Both macro- and micro-scale processes are obviously important for cloud-radiation interactions. We will present the main features of cloud microphysical properties in the GEOS- 5 Atmospheric GCM (AGCM) as simulated by the McRAS-AC (Microphysics of Clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert and Aerosol-Cloud interaction) scheme. McRAS-AC uses Fountoukis and Nenes (2005) aerosol activation for liquid clouds, and has an option for either Liu and Penner (2005) or Barahona and Nenes (2008, 2009) aerosol activation for ice clouds. Aerosol loading (on-line or climatological) comes from GOCART, with an assumed log-normal size distribution. Other features of McRAS-AC are level-by-level cloud-scale thermodynamics, and Seifert-Beheng (2001)-type precipitation microphysics, particularly from moist convection. Results from Single-Column Model simulations will be shown to demonstrate how cloud radiative properties, lifetimes, and precipitation are influenced by different parameterization assumptions. Corresponding fields from year-long simulations of the full AGCM will also be presented with geographical distributions of cloud effective particle sizes compared to satellite retrievals. While the primary emphasis will be on current climate, simulation results with perturbed aerosol loadings will also be shown to expose the radiative sensitivity of the

  7. Prediction of Total Lightning Behavior in Colorado Thunderstorms from Storm Dynamical and Microphysical Variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basarab, B.; Rutledge, S. A.; Fuchs, B.

    2014-12-01

    Accurate prediction of lightning flash rate is essential to successfully parameterize the production of nitrogen oxides by lightning (LNOx). In this study, new flash rate parameterization schemes are developed using observations of 10 Colorado thunderstorms from the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) and the CHILL Microphysical Investigation of Electrification (CHILL-MIE) field projects. Storm total flash rates were determined by automated clustering of lightning mapping array (LMA)-detected radiation sources. Storm parameters, including hydrometeor and reflectivity echo volumes, ice masses, and measurements of updraft strength were obtained from polarimetric radar retrievals and dual-Doppler derived wind fields. Echo volumes exhibited a particularly strong correlation to flash rate (R2 = 0.78 for 30-dBZ echo volume). It is shown that existing flash rate schemes tend to underestimate flash rate for the storms in this study. New parameterizations developed based on the graupel echo volume, the precipitating ice mass (graupel and hail), and the 30-dBZ echo volume within the mixed-phase region of storms predicted flash rate trends reasonably well. However, there were sometimes large errors in the prediction of flash rate magnitudes, possibly due to fluctuations in storm updraft intensity. Updraft-based flash schemes were developed but significantly underestimated flash rate for the storms studied. It is shown that very high flash rates correlate differently to updraft strength than low flash rates. We hypothesize why this behavior is observed. The use of multiple storm parameters to predict flash rate was also investigated, and the results are improved somewhat compared to single-parameter schemes. New flash schemes were tested for storms outside of Colorado to examine their potential regional dependence. Finally, observations of the relationship between flash rate and flash size are discussed, with implications for the improved prediction of LNOx.

  8. Uncertainty in prediction of deep moist convective processes: turbulent parameterizations, microphysics and grid-scale effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fiori, E.; Parodi, A.; Siccardi, F.

    2009-09-01

    A line of development of numerical meteorological forecast, common to many European and American Meteorological Organizations, schedules a drastic reduction of the space scale for the realization of limited-area predictions. The scientific community has been discussing such an issue, whether this approach can be of real advantage for the solution of the problems of the uncertainty of the decision-maker. The extraordinary enhancement of the computer power could indeed, just because "nowadays it is possible", promote this drastic reduction of the modeling horizontal resolution. However this "brute-force" approach to the question of the solution of the problem of nowcasting does not guarantee a priori success in the solution of the problem. In this framework, deep moist convective processes in simplified atmospheric scenarios (e.g. supercell) are studied in this paper by means of high resolution numerical simulations with Cosmo Model. Particular attention is paid to determine if and at which extent the convection-resolving solutions, in the range of grid-spacing between 1 km and 100 m, statistically converge from a turbulence perspective with respect to flow field structure, transport properties and precipitation forecast. Different turbulent closures, microphysics settings and gridspacings are combined and their joint impact on the spatial-temporal properties of storm processes is discussed.

  9. Uncertainty in prediction of deep moist convective processes: Turbulence parameterizations, microphysics and grid-scale effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fiori, E.; Parodi, A.; Siccardi, F.

    2011-06-01

    A line of development of numerical meteorological forecast, common to many European and American Meteorological Organizations, schedules a drastic reduction of the grid spacing for the realization of limited-area predictions. The scientific community has been discussing such an issue whether this approach can be of real advantage for the solution of the problems of the uncertainty of the decision-maker. The extraordinary enhancement of the computer power could indeed promote this drastic reduction of the modeling horizontal resolution just because "nowadays it is possible". However this "brute-force" approach to the question of the solution of the problem of nowcasting does not guarantee a priori improvement of forecast skill. In this framework, deep moist convective processes in simplified atmospheric scenarios (e.g. supercell) are studied in this paper by means of high-resolution numerical simulations with COSMO-Model. Particular attention is paid to determine whether and at which extent the convection-resolving solutions, in the range of grid spacing between 1 km and 100 m, statistically converge from a turbulence perspective with respect to flow field structure, transport properties and precipitation forecast. Different turbulence closures, microphysics settings and grid spacings are combined and their joint impact on the spatial-temporal properties of storm processes is discussed.

  10. Predicting Epileptic Seizures in Advance

    PubMed Central

    Moghim, Negin; Corne, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epilepsy is the second most common neurological disorder, affecting 0.6–0.8% of the world's population. In this neurological disorder, abnormal activity of the brain causes seizures, the nature of which tend to be sudden. Antiepileptic Drugs (AEDs) are used as long-term therapeutic solutions that control the condition. Of those treated with AEDs, 35% become resistant to medication. The unpredictable nature of seizures poses risks for the individual with epilepsy. It is clearly desirable to find more effective ways of preventing seizures for such patients. The automatic detection of oncoming seizures, before their actual onset, can facilitate timely intervention and hence minimize these risks. In addition, advance prediction of seizures can enrich our understanding of the epileptic brain. In this study, drawing on the body of work behind automatic seizure detection and prediction from digitised Invasive Electroencephalography (EEG) data, a prediction algorithm, ASPPR (Advance Seizure Prediction via Pre-ictal Relabeling), is described. ASPPR facilitates the learning of predictive models targeted at recognizing patterns in EEG activity that are in a specific time window in advance of a seizure. It then exploits advanced machine learning coupled with the design and selection of appropriate features from EEG signals. Results, from evaluating ASPPR independently on 21 different patients, suggest that seizures for many patients can be predicted up to 20 minutes in advance of their onset. Compared to benchmark performance represented by a mean S1-Score (harmonic mean of Sensitivity and Specificity) of 90.6% for predicting seizure onset between 0 and 5 minutes in advance, ASPPR achieves mean S1-Scores of: 96.30% for prediction between 1 and 6 minutes in advance, 96.13% for prediction between 8 and 13 minutes in advance, 94.5% for prediction between 14 and 19 minutes in advance, and 94.2% for prediction between 20 and 25 minutes in advance. PMID:24911316

  11. The Impact of Microphysics on Intensity and Structure of Hurricanes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn; Lang, Steve; Peters-Lidard, Christa

    2006-01-01

    During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models, e.g. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WFW is a next-generation mesoscale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WFW model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options such as Lin et al. (1983), WSM 6-class and Thompson microphysics schemes. We have recently implemented three sophisticated cloud microphysics schemes into WRF. The cloud microphysics schemes have been extensively tested and applied for different mesoscale systems in different geographical locations. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics options. We are performing sensitivity tests in using WW to examine the impact of six different cloud microphysical schemes on hurricane track, intensity and rainfall forecast. We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the physical processes @e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes.

  12. ISDAC Microphysics

    SciTech Connect

    McFarquhar, Greg

    2011-07-25

    Best estimate of cloud microphysical parameters derived using data collected by the cloud microphysical probes installed on the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada Convair-580 during ISDAC. These files contain phase, liquid and ice crystal size distributions (Nw(D) and Ni(D) respectively), liquid water content (LWC), ice water content (IWC), extinction of liquid drops (bw), extinction of ice crystals (bi), effective radius of water drops (rew) and of ice crystals (rei) and median mass diameter of liquid drops (Dmml) and of ice crystals (Dmmi) at 30 second resolution.

  13. Decadal simulation and comprehensive evaluation of CESM/CAM5.1 with advanced chemistry, aerosol microphysics, and aerosol-cloud interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Jian; Zhang, Yang; Glotfelty, Tim; He, Ruoying; Bennartz, Ralf; Rausch, John; Sartelet, Karine

    2015-03-01

    Earth system models have been used for climate predictions in recent years due to their capabilities to include biogeochemical cycles, human impacts, as well as coupled and interactive representations of Earth system components (e.g., atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice). In this work, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with advanced chemistry and aerosol treatments, referred to as CESM-NCSU, is applied for decadal (2001-2010) global climate predictions. A comprehensive evaluation is performed focusing on the atmospheric component—the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5.1) by comparing simulation results with observations/reanalysis data and CESM ensemble simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The improved model can predict most meteorological and radiative variables relatively well with normalized mean biases (NMBs) of -14.1 to -9.7% and 0.7-10.8%, respectively, although temperature at 2 m (T2) is slightly underpredicted. Cloud variables such as cloud fraction (CF) and precipitating water vapor (PWV) are well predicted, with NMBs of -10.5 to 0.4%, whereas cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), cloud liquid water path (LWP), and cloud optical thickness (COT) are moderately-to-largely underpredicted, with NMBs of -82.2 to -31.2%, and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is overpredictd by 26.7%. These biases indicate the limitations and uncertainties associated with cloud microphysics (e.g., resolved clouds and subgrid-scale cumulus clouds). Chemical concentrations over the continental U.S. (CONUS) (e.g., SO42-, Cl-, OC, and PM2.5) are reasonably well predicted with NMBs of -12.8 to -1.18%. Concentrations of SO2, SO42-, and PM10 are also reasonably well predicted over Europe with NMBs of -20.8 to -5.2%, so are predictions of SO2 concentrations over the East Asia with an NMB of -18.2%, and the tropospheric ozone residual (TOR) over the globe with an NMB of -3.5%. Most meteorological and radiative variables

  14. Influence of different microphysical schemes on the prediction of dissolution of nonreactive gases by cloud droplets and raindrops

    SciTech Connect

    Huret, N.; Chaumerliac, N.; Isaka, H.; Nickerson, E.C. |

    1994-09-01

    Three microphysical formulations are closely compared to evaluate their impact upon gas scavenging and wet deposition processes. They range from a classical bulk approach to a fully spectral representation, including an intermediate semispectral parameterization. Detailed comparisons among the microphysical rates provided by these three parameterizations are performed with special emphasis on evaporation rate calculations. This comparative study is carried out in the context of a mountain wave simulation. Major differences are essentially found in the contrasted spreading of the microphysical fields on the downwind side of the mountain. A detailed chemical module including the dissolution of the species and their transfer between phases (air, cloud, and rain) is coupled with the three microphysical parameterizations in the framework of the dynamical mesoscale model. An assessment of the accuracy of each scheme is then proposed by comparing their ability to represent the drop size dependency of chemical wet processes. The impact of evaporation (partial versus total) upon the partition of species between gas and aqueous phases is also studied in detail.

  15. Improving Microphysical Processes in the GCE Model Using TRMM and Other Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, W.; Lang, S.; Li, X.; Matsui, T.; Zeng, X.

    2008-12-01

    Advances in computing power allow atmospheric prediction models to be run at progressively finer scales of resolution, using increasingly more sophisticated physical parameterizations and numerical methods. The representation of cloud microphysical processes is a key component of these models. Over the past decade both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [i.e., the Fifth-generation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Penn State University Mesoscale Model (MM5), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta, and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes that were originally developed for high-resolution cloud- resolving models (CRMs). Recently, satellite observations in conjunction with a satellite simulator are used to identify the strengths and weaknesses of CRMs' bulk microphysical schemes based results from more detailed spectral bin microphysics. Consequently, these microphysics could be improved through detailed comparisons with observations. In this paper, we will present several improvement to the bulk microphysics, including (1) incorporating the effects of ice nuclei (IN) and ice crystal concentration, (2) replacing the Fletcher curve with the Meyers curve for the specification of ice crystal number concentration in the parameterization for the Bergeron conversion of cloud ice to snow, and (3) incorporating a new temperature-dependent DSD (TeDD).

  16. Advances in predicting acute GVHD

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Andrew C.; Ferrara, James L.M.; Levine, John E.

    2012-01-01

    Summary Acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a leading cause of non-relapse mortality following allogeneic haematopoietic cell transplantation. Attempts to improve treatment response in clinically-established GVHD have not improved overall survival, often due to the increased risk of infectious complications. Alternative approaches to decrease GVHD-related morbidity and mortality have focused on the ability to predict GVHD prior to clinical manifestation in an effort to provide an opportunity to abort GVHD development, and to gain new insights into GVHD pathophysiology. This review outlines the research efforts to date that have identified clinical and laboratory-based factors that are predictive of acute GVHD and describes future directions in developing algorithms that will improve the ability to predict the development of clinically relevant GVHD. PMID:23205489

  17. The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Hurricane Intensity and Track

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn Jong; Chen, Shuyi S.; Lang, Stephen; Lin, Pay-Liam; Hong, Song-You; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Hou, Arthur

    2011-01-01

    During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system. It incorporates a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numerics and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At NASA Goddard, four different cloud microphysics options have been implemented into WRF. The performance of these schemes is compared to those of the other microphysics schemes available in WRF for an Atlantic hurricane case (Katrina). In addition, a brief review of previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and processes on the intensity and track of hurricanes is presented and compared against the current Katrina study. In general, all of the studies show that microphysics schemes do not have a major impact on track forecasts but do have more of an effect on the simulated intensity. Also, nearly all of the previous studies found that simulated hurricanes had the strongest deepening or intensification when using only warm rain physics. This is because all of the simulated precipitating hydrometeors are large raindrops that quickly fall out near the eye-wall region, which would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these studies suggested that intensities become unrealistically strong when evaporative cooling from cloud droplets and melting from ice particles are removed as this results in much weaker downdrafts in the simulated

  18. A triple-moment hail bulk microphysics scheme. Part II: Verification and comparison with two-moment bulk microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loftus, A. M.; Cotton, W. R.

    2014-12-01

    Microphysical parameterizations in numerical cloud models continue to grow in complexity as our capability to represent microphysical processes increases owing to greater knowledge of these processes as well as advances in computing power. In Part I of this study, a new triple-moment bulk hail microphysics scheme (3MHAIL) that predicts the spectral shape parameter of the hail size distribution was presented and evaluated against lower order-moment schemes. In this paper, the 3MHAIL scheme is verified in simulations of a well-observed supercell storm that occurred over northwest Kansas on 29 June 2000 during the Severe Thunderstorm and Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS). Comparisons of the simulation results with the observations for this case, as well as with results of simulations using two different two-moment (2M) configurations of the RAMS microphysics schemes, suggest a significant improvement of the simulated storm structure and evolution is achieved with the 3MHAIL scheme. The generation of large hail and subsequent fallout in the simulation using 3MHAIL microphysics show particularly good agreement with surface hail reports for this storm as well as with previous studies of hail-producing supercell storms. On the other hand, the simulation with 2M microphysics produces only small hail aloft and virtually no hail at the surface, whereas a 2M version of the 3MHAIL scheme (with a fixed spectral shape parameter) produces unrealistically high amounts of large hail at low levels as a result of artificial shifts in the hail size spectra towards larger diameter hail during the melting process.

  19. The Impact of Microphysics on Intensity and Structure of Hurricanes and Mesoscale Convective Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn J.; Jou, Ben Jong-Dao; Lee, Wen-Chau; Lin, Pay-Liam; Chang, Mei-Yu

    2007-01-01

    During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models, e.g. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation mesoscale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options such as Purdue Lin et al. (1983), WSM 6-class and Thompson microphysics schemes. We have recently implemented three sophisticated cloud microphysics schemes into WRF. The cloud microphysics schemes have been extensively tested and applied for different mesoscale systems in different geographical locations. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics options. We are performing sensitivity tests in using WRF to examine the impact of six different cloud microphysical schemes on precipitation processes associated hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems developed at different geographic locations [Oklahoma (IHOP), Louisiana (Hurricane Katrina), Canada (C3VP - snow events), Washington (fire storm), India (Monsoon), Taiwan (TiMREX - terrain)]. We will determine the microphysical schemes for good simulated convective systems in these geographic locations. We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the physical processes (i.e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems.

  20. Predicting Career Advancement with Structural Equation Modelling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heimler, Ronald; Rosenberg, Stuart; Morote, Elsa-Sofia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to use the authors' prior findings concerning basic employability skills in order to determine which skills best predict career advancement potential. Design/methodology/approach: Utilizing survey responses of human resource managers, the employability skills showing the largest relationships to career…

  1. Predictive Dynamic Security Assessment through Advanced Computing

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Zhenyu; Diao, Ruisheng; Jin, Shuangshuang; Chen, Yousu

    2014-11-30

    Abstract— Traditional dynamic security assessment is limited by several factors and thus falls short in providing real-time information to be predictive for power system operation. These factors include the steady-state assumption of current operating points, static transfer limits, and low computational speed. This addresses these factors and frames predictive dynamic security assessment. The primary objective of predictive dynamic security assessment is to enhance the functionality and computational process of dynamic security assessment through the use of high-speed phasor measurements and the application of advanced computing technologies for faster-than-real-time simulation. This paper presents algorithms, computing platforms, and simulation frameworks that constitute the predictive dynamic security assessment capability. Examples of phasor application and fast computation for dynamic security assessment are included to demonstrate the feasibility and speed enhancement for real-time applications.

  2. Tests of WRF Microphysics in GFS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, R.; Han, J.

    2014-12-01

    Zhao and Carr microphysics scheme has been implemented into the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) for many years. It predicts total cloud condensate (cloud water or ice). The scheme has significantly improved the forecast skills compared with its previous diagnostic cloud scheme. However, it has become too simple in several aspects as the computing power and resolution increase. Many microphysical processes are simplified or neglected for computing efficiency. Precipitation is diagnosed and falls to the surface instantaneously. Studies have shown that more sophisticated microphysics schemes generally give better results compared with observations. We are testing several sophisticated microphysics schemes from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in the GFS. These schemes have more cloud species and more physically-based parameterized processes. We will adjust or modify the schemes for the GFS. Partial cloud and cloud overlapping will be added to these schemes. The comparison will be focus on the precipitation skills and cloud properties and their effects.

  3. Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Mo, Kingtse; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Wood, Andy; Pulwarty, Roger; Huang, Jin; Barrie, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem

  4. Advancements in predictive plasma formation modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Purvis, Michael A.; Schafgans, Alexander; Brown, Daniel J. W.; Fomenkov, Igor; Rafac, Rob; Brown, Josh; Tao, Yezheng; Rokitski, Slava; Abraham, Mathew; Vargas, Mike; Rich, Spencer; Taylor, Ted; Brandt, David; Pirati, Alberto; Fisher, Aaron; Scott, Howard; Koniges, Alice; Eder, David; Wilks, Scott; Link, Anthony; Langer, Steven

    2016-03-01

    We present highlights from plasma simulations performed in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Labs. This modeling is performed to advance the rate of learning about optimal EUV generation for laser produced plasmas and to provide insights where experimental results are not currently available. The goal is to identify key physical processes necessary for an accurate and predictive model capable of simulating a wide range of conditions. This modeling will help to drive source performance scaling in support of the EUV Lithography roadmap. The model simulates pre-pulse laser interaction with the tin droplet and follows the droplet expansion into the main pulse target zone. Next, the interaction of the expanded droplet with the main laser pulse is simulated. We demonstrate the predictive nature of the code and provide comparison with experimental results.

  5. Uncertainty of Microphysics Schemes in CRMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, W. K.; van den Heever, S. C.; Wu, D.; Saleeby, S. M.; Lang, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Microphysics is the framework through which to understand the links between interactive aerosol, cloud and precipitation processes. These processes play a critical role in the water and energy cycle. CRMs with advanced microphysics schemes have been used to study the interaction between aerosol, cloud and precipitation processes at high resolution. But, there are still many uncertainties associated with these microphysics schemes. This has arisen, in part, from the fact microphysical processes cannot be measured directly; instead, cloud properties, which can be measured, are and have been used to validate model results. The utilization of current and future global high-resolution models is rapidly increasing and are at what has been traditional CRM resolutions and are using microphysics schemes that were developed in traditional CRMs. A potential NASA satellite mission called the Cloud and Precipitation Processes Mission (CaPPM) is currently being planned for submission to the NASA Earth Science Decadal Survey. This mission could provide the necessary global estimates of cloud and precipitation properties with which to evaluate and improve dynamical and microphysical parameterizations and the feedbacks. In order to facilitate the development of this mission, CRM simulations have been conducted to identify microphysical processes responsible for the greatest uncertainties in CRMs. In this talk, we will present results from numerical simulations conducted using two CRMs (NU-WRF and RAMS) with different dynamics, radiation, land surface and microphysics schemes. Specifically, we will conduct sensitivity tests to examine the uncertainty of the some of the key ice processes (i.e. riming, melting, freezing and shedding) in these two-microphysics schemes. The idea is to quantify how these two different models' respond (surface rainfall and its intensity, strength of cloud drafts, LWP/IWP, convective-stratiform-anvil area distribution) to changes of these key ice

  6. Impact of precipitating ice on the simulation of a heavy rainfall event with advanced research WRF using two bulk microphysical schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Efstathiou, G. A.; Zoumakis, N. M.; Melas, D.; Kassomenos, P.

    2012-11-01

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.2 is used to examine the impact of precipitating ice and especially snow-graupel partitioning in the simulation of a heavy rainfall event over Chalkidiki peninsula in Northern Greece. This major precipitation event, associated with a case of cyclogenesis over the Aegean Sea, occurred on the 8th of October 2006 causing severe flooding and damage. Two widely used microphysical parameterizations, the Purdue Lin (PLIN) and WRF Single-Moment 6-class scheme (WSM6) are compared with available raingauge measurements over the complex topography of Chalkidiki. To further investigate the importance of snow and graupel relative mass content and the treatment of precipitating ice sedimentation velocity, two older versions of the WSM6 scheme were compiled and run with the current model. The verification results indicate that all simulations were found to match raingauge data more closely over the eastern mountainous Chalkidiki peninsula where maximum accumulations were observed. In other stations all schemes overestimate 24h accumulated rainfall except a station situated at the western part of the peninsula, where none of the simulations was able to reproduce observed rainfall. Graupel dominance in PLIN generates rapid precipitation fallout at the point of maximum predicted 24h accumulation. Similar behavior is shown in WSM6 from WRF version 2, but with significant less rainfall. Increasing snow amounts aloft, due to the unified treatment of precipitating ice in WSM6 from WRF version 3, modifies rain dynamics which decrease rainfall rates, but increases 24h accumulations. A sensitivity experiment where PLIN is used with snow accretion by graupel turned off, indicated that this process seems to be the most important factor controlling the differences in surface precipitation between PLIN and WSM6 from WRF version 3, determining the spatial and temporal distribution of this heavy precipitation event. The

  7. Gravity wave and microphysical effects on bow echo development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selin, Rebecca Denise Adams

    . Microphysical sensitivity tests further elucidate the importance of the horizontal distribution of the microphysical heating profile. The tests used variations in the graupel parameter to evaluate its effect on bowing development and related forecasting parameters. Idealized and case study simulations showed that simulations using a larger, heavier, more "hail-like'' graupel parameter with faster fallspeeds have decreased evaporation and melting rates concentrated closer behind the convective line, compared to simulations with a smaller, slower-falling, more "graupel-like'' graupel parameter. This resulted in increased precipitation efficiency but a smaller stratiform region, weaker cold pool, weaker downdrafts and surface wind gusts, rear-to-front flow that remained elevated until close behind the convective line, and delayed bowing development in the "hail-like'' simulations. Output from the case study sensitivity tests were compared to data from the Oklahoma Mesonet, which showed "hail-like'' microphysical variations can cause significant variations in simulated forecasting parameters, including a 90 minute delay in onset of bowing, 150% weaker surface wind gusts, and a 600% increase in storm-total precipitation. Results from this work emphasize the importance of microphysical heating and cooling profiles in development of bow echoes, be it through the generation of multiple gravity waves and their feedback to the convection, or through direct modification of convective features such as the rear-inflow circulation and the cold pool strength. The pressure surge gravity wave generated by low-level cooling prior to bowing, and associated destabilization of the environment immediately in advance of the system, improves understanding of the cause of convective intensification as the system bows. However, the strong connection shown between bow echo development and microphysical processes, and the highly diverse nature of microphysical parameterizations, presents a challenge to

  8. An Improved Bulk Microphysical Scheme for Studying Precipitation Processes: Comparisons with Other Schemes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, W. K.; Shi, J. J.; Lang, S.; Chen, S.; Hong, S-Y.; Peters-Lidard, C.

    2007-01-01

    Cloud microphysical processes play an important role in non-hydrostatic high-resolution simulations. Over the past decade both research and operational numerical weather prediction models have started using more complex cloud microphysical schemes that were originally developed for high-resolution cloud-resolving models. An improved bulk microphysical parameterization (adopted from the Goddard microphysics schemes) has recently implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This bulk microphysical scheme has three different options --- 2ICE (cloud ice & snow), 3ICE-graupel (cloud ice, snow & graupel) and 3ICE-hail (cloud ice, snow & hail). High-resolution model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of microphysical schemes on two different weather events (a midlatitude linear convective system and an Atlantic hurricane). In addition, this bulk microphysical parameterization is compared with WIRF's three other bulk microphysical schemes.

  9. Acid rain: Microphysical model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dingle, A. N.

    1980-01-01

    A microphysical model was used to simulate the case of a ground cloud without dilution by entrainment and without precipitation. The numerical integration techniques of the model are presented. The droplet size spectra versus time and the droplet molalities for each value of time are discussed.

  10. Climatic implications of ice microphysics

    SciTech Connect

    Liou, K.N.

    1995-09-01

    Based on aircraft measurements of mid-latitude cirrus clouds, ice crystal size distribution and ice water content (IWC) are shown to be dependent on temperature. This dependence is also evident from the theoretical consideration of ice crystal growth. Using simple models of the diffusion and accretion growth of ice particles, the computed mean ice crystal size and IWC compare reasonably well with the measured mean values. The temperature dependence of ice crystal size and IWC has important climatic implications in that the temperature field perturbed by external radiative forcings, such as greenhouse warming, can alter the composition of ice crystal clouds. Through radiative transfer, ice microphysics can in turn affect the temperature field. Higher IWC would increase cloud solar albedo and infrared emissivity, while for a given IWC, larger crystals would reduce cloud albedo and emissivity. The competing effects produced by greenhouse temperature perturbations via ice micro-physics and radiation interactions and feedbacks are assessed by a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model that includes an advanced radiation parameterization program. 3 figs.

  11. Weather Prediction Improvement Using Advanced Satellite Technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Einaudi, Franco; Uccellini, L.; Purdom, J.; Rogers, D.; Gelaro, R.; Dodge, J.; Atlas, R.; Lord, S.

    2001-01-01

    We discuss in this paper some of the problems that exist today in the fall utilization of satellite data to improve weather forecasts and we propose specific recommendations to solve them. This discussion can be viewed as an aspect of the general debate on how best to organize the transition from research to operational satellites and how to evaluate the impact of a research instrument on numerical weather predictions. A method for providing this transition is offered by the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP). This mission will bridge the time between the present NOAA and Department of Defense (DOD) polar orbiting missions and the initiation of the converged NPOESS series and will evaluate some of the Earth Observing System (EOS) instruments as appropriate for operational missions. Thus, this mission can be viewed as an effort to meet the operational requirements of NOAA and DOD and the research requirements of NASA. More generally, however, it can be said that the process of going from the conception of new, more advanced instruments to their operational implementation and full utilization by the weather forecast communities is not optimal. Instruments developed for research purposes may have insufficient funding to explore their potential operational capabilities. Furthermore, instrument development programs designed for operational satellites typically have insufficient funding for assimilation algorithms needed to transform the satellite observations into data that can be used by sophisticated global weather forecast models. As a result, years often go by before satellite data are efficiently used for operational forecasts. NASA and NOAA each have unique expertise in the design of satellite instruments, their use for basic and applied research and their utilization in weather and climate research. At a time of limited resources, the two agencies must combine their efforts to work toward common

  12. New, Improved Bulk-microphysical Schemes for Studying Precipitation Processes in WRF. Part 1; Comparisons with Other Schemes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, W.-K.; Shi, J.; Chen, S. S> ; Lang, S.; Hong, S.-Y.; Thompson, G.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Hou, A.; Braun, S.; Simpson, J.

    2007-01-01

    Advances in computing power allow atmospheric prediction models to be mn at progressively finer scales of resolution, using increasingly more sophisticated physical parameterizations and numerical methods. The representation of cloud microphysical processes is a key component of these models, over the past decade both research and operational numerical weather prediction models have started using more complex microphysical schemes that were originally developed for high-resolution cloud-resolving models (CRMs). A recent report to the United States Weather Research Program (USWRP) Science Steering Committee specifically calls for the replacement of implicit cumulus parameterization schemes with explicit bulk schemes in numerical weather prediction (NWP) as part of a community effort to improve quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). An improved Goddard bulk microphysical parameterization is implemented into a state-of the-art of next generation of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. High-resolution model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of microphysical schemes on two different weather events (a midlatitude linear convective system and an Atllan"ic hurricane). The results suggest that microphysics has a major impact on the organization and precipitation processes associated with a summer midlatitude convective line system. The 31CE scheme with a cloud ice-snow-hail configuration led to a better agreement with observation in terms of simulated narrow convective line and rainfall intensity. This is because the 3ICE-hail scheme includes dense ice precipitating (hail) particle with very fast fall speed (over 10 m/s). For an Atlantic hurricane case, varying the microphysical schemes had no significant impact on the track forecast but did affect the intensity (important for air-sea interaction)

  13. Improved methodology for temperature predictions in advanced reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Ambrosek, R.G.; Chang, G.S.

    1995-10-01

    Advanced nuclear reactors maximize power and/or flux levels for increased performance levels. One of the challenges is accurate prediction of temperatures in the structural components and experiments. An improved methodology utilizing the computer codes MCNP and ABAQUS has been demonstrated in instrumented experiments at the Advanced Test Reactor. The analytical predictions have shown excellent agreement with the measured results.

  14. Recent Advances in Predictive (Machine) Learning

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, J

    2004-01-24

    Prediction involves estimating the unknown value of an attribute of a system under study given the values of other measured attributes. In prediction (machine) learning the prediction rule is derived from data consisting of previously solved cases. Most methods for predictive learning were originated many years ago at the dawn of the computer age. Recently two new techniques have emerged that have revitalized the field. These are support vector machines and boosted decision trees. This paper provides an introduction to these two new methods tracing their respective ancestral roots to standard kernel methods and ordinary decision trees.

  15. Advanced technology wind shear prediction system evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gering, Greg

    1992-01-01

    The program overviews: (1) American Airline (AA)/Turbulence Prediction Systems (TPS), which have installed forward looking infrared predictive windshear system on 3 MD-80 aircraft; (2) AA/TPS AWAS III evaluation, which is a joint effort and is installed in the noise landing gear (NLG) area and a data recorder installed in the E/E compartment.

  16. Predicting success on the Advanced Placement Biology Examination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shepherd, Lesa Hanlin

    Four hundred sixty students in four public high schools were used as subjects to determine which of eleven academic and demographic factors studied were significant predictors of success for the Advanced Placement Biology Examination. Factors studied were attendance, class rank, gender, grade level at the time of the examination, grade point average, level of prerequisite biology course, number of Advanced Placement Examinations taken in the year prior to the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, number of Advanced Placement Examinations taken in the same year as the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, proposed major in college, race, and SAT mathematics, verbal, and combined score. Significant relationships were found to exist between the Advanced Placement Biology Examination score and attendance, class rank, gender, grade level at the time of the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, grade point average, number of Advanced Placement Examinations taken in the year prior to the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, number of Advanced Placement Examinations taken in the same year as the Advanced Placement Biology Examination, race, and SAT scores. Significant relationships were not found to exist between Advanced Placement Biology Examination score and level prerequisite biology course and Advanced Placement Biology Examination score and proposed major in college. A multiple regression showed the best combination of predictors to be attendance, SAT verbal score, and SAT mathematics score. Discriminant analysis showed the variables in this study to be good predictors of whether the student would pass the Advanced Placement Biology Examination (score a 3, 4, or 5) or fail the Advanced Placement Biology Examination (score a 1 or 2). These results demonstrated that significant predictors for the Advanced Placement Biology Examination do exist and can be used to assist in the prediction of scores, prediction of passing or failing, the identification of

  17. The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Intensity and Track of Hurricane

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, W. K.; Shi, J. J.; Chen, S. S.; Lang, S.; Lin, P.; Hong, S. Y.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Hou, A.

    2010-01-01

    During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. The WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. The WRF model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At Goddard, four different cloud microphysics schemes (warm rain only, two-class of ice, two three-class of ice with either graupel or hail) are implemented into the WRF. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics scheme options for an Atlantic hurricane case. In addition, a brief review and comparison on the previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and microphysical processes on intensity and track of hurricane will be presented. Generally, almost all modeling studies found that the microphysics schemes did not have major impacts on track forecast, but did have more effect on the intensity. All modeling studies found that the simulated hurricane has rapid deepening and/or intensification for the warm rain-only case. It is because all hydrometeors were very large raindrops, and they fell out quickly at and near the eye-wall region. This would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these modeling studies suggested that the simulated hurricane becomes unrealistically strong by removing the evaporative cooling of cloud droplets and melting of ice particles. This is due to the

  18. Predictable nonlinear dynamics: Advances and limitations

    SciTech Connect

    Anosov, L.A.; Butkovskii, O.Y.; Kravtsov, Y.A.; Surovyatkina, E.D.

    1996-06-01

    Methods for reconstruction chaotic dynamical system structure directly from experimental time series are described. Effectiveness of general methods is illustrated with the results of numerical simulation. It is of common interest that from the single time series it is possible to reconstruct a set of interconnected variables. Predictive power of dynamical models, provided by the nonlinear dynamics inverse problem solution, is limited firstly by the noise level in the system under study and is characterized by the horizon of predictability. New physical results are presented, concerning nonstationary and bifurcation nonlinear systems: (1) algorithms for revealing of nonstationarity in random-like chaotic time-series are suggested based on discriminant analysis with nonlinear discriminant function; (2) an opportunity is established to predict the final state in bifurcation system with quickly varying control parameters; (3) hysteresis is founded out in bifurcation system with quickly varying parameters; (4) delayed correlation {l_angle}noise-prediction error{r_angle} in chaotic systems is revealed. {copyright} {ital 1996 American Institute of Physics.}

  19. Tropical Anvil Cirrus Microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heymsfield, A.; Bansemer, A.; Schmitt, C.; Baumgardner, D.; Poellot, M.; Twohy, C.; Weinstock, E. M.; Smith, J. T.; Sayres, D.; Avallone, L.; Hallar, G.

    2003-12-01

    This study synthesizes data collected during a number of field campaigns by in-situ aircraft to characterize the microphysical properties of tropical, convectively-generated cirrus. The field campaigns include the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission KWAJEX campaign near Kwajalein, M. I., KAMP (the Keys Area Microphysics Project) and the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers (CRYSTAL) Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (FACE), both over southern Florida, and CAMEX-4 (the fourth convection and moisture experiment), studying hurricanes off the east coast of Florida. The measurements include particle size distribution and particle shape information, direct measurements of the condensed water content (CRYSTAL-FACE), and radar imagery. We examine the temperature dependence and vertical variability of the ice water content (IWC), extinction, and effective radii, and deduce the ensemble-mean ice particle densities. Data obtained in quiescent regions outside of convection are compared to observations within convective cells. The relationship between the properties of the particle size distributions and proximity to convection are examined. The IWCs show a strong temperature dependence and dependence on distance below cloud top. The IWCs are larger in the convective regions than in the quiescent regions, and the particle size distributions are markedly broader. Ensemble-mean ice particle densities are a strong function of the breadth of the particle size distributions.

  20. Microphysics of Pyrocumulonimbus Clouds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jensen, Eric; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Fridlind, Ann

    2004-01-01

    The intense heat from forest fires can generate explosive deep convective cloud systems that inject pollutants to high altitudes. Both satellite and high-altitude aircraft measurements have documented cases in which these pyrocumulonimbus clouds inject large amounts of smoke well into the stratosphere (Fromm and Servranckx 2003; Jost et al. 2004). This smoke can remain in the stratosphere, be transported large distances, and affect lower stratospheric chemistry. In addition recent in situ measurements in pyrocumulus updrafts have shown that the high concentrations of smoke particles have significant impacts on cloud microphysical properties. Very high droplet number densities result in delayed precipitation and may enhance lightning (Andrew et al. 2004). Presumably, the smoke particles will also lead to changes in the properties of anvil cirrus produces by the deep convection, with resulting influences on cloud radiative forcing. In situ sampling near the tops of mature pyrocumulonimbus is difficult due to the high altitude and violence of the storms. In this study, we use large eddy simulations (LES) with size-resolved microphysics to elucidate physical processes in pyrocumulonimbus clouds.

  1. Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bao, Han P.; Samareh, J. A.; Weston, R. P.

    2002-01-01

    For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This paper outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are soared according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this paper is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool.

  2. Predicting Malignancy in Thyroid Nodules: Molecular Advances

    PubMed Central

    Melck, Adrienne L.; Yip, Linwah

    2016-01-01

    Over the last several years, a clearer understanding of the genetic alterations underlying thyroid carcinogenesis has developed. This knowledge can be utilized to tackle one of the greatest challenges facing thyroidologists: management of the indeterminate thyroid nodule. Despite the accuracy of fine needle aspiration cytology, many patients undergo invasive surgery in order to determine if a follicular or Hurthle cell neoplasm is malignant, and better diagnostic tools are required. A number of biomarkers have recently been studied and show promise in this setting. In particular, BRAF, RAS, PAX8-PPARγ, microRNAs and loss of heterozygosity have each been demonstrated as useful molecular tools for predicting malignancy and can thereby guide decisions regarding surgical management of nodular thyroid disease. This review summarizes the current literature surrounding each of these markers and highlights our institution’s prospective analysis of these markers and their subsequent incorporation into our management algorithms for thyroid nodules. PMID:21818817

  3. Representation of Nucleation Mode Microphysics in a Global Aerosol Model with Sectional Microphysics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Y. H.; Pierce, J. R.; Adams, P. J.

    2013-01-01

    In models, nucleation mode (1 nmmicrophysics can be represented explicitly with aerosol microphysical processes or can be parameterized to obtain the growth and survival of nuclei to the model's lower size boundary. This study investigates how the representation of nucleation mode microphysics impacts aerosol number predictions in the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) aerosol microphysics model running with the GISS GCM II-prime by varying its lowest diameter boundary: 1 nm, 3 nm, and 10 nm. The model with the 1 nm boundary simulates the nucleation mode particles with fully resolved microphysical processes, while the model with the 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries uses a nucleation mode dynamics parameterization to account for the growth of nucleated particles to 10 nm and 3 nm, respectively.We also investigate the impact of the time step for aerosol microphysical processes (a 10 min versus a 1 h time step) to aerosol number predictions in the TOMAS models with explicit dynamics for the nucleation mode particles (i.e., 3 nm and 1 nm boundary). The model with the explicit microphysics (i.e., 1 nm boundary) with the 10 min time step is used as a numerical benchmark simulation to estimate biases caused by varying the lower size cutoff and the time step. Different representations of the nucleation mode have a significant effect on the formation rate of particles larger than 10 nm from nucleated particles (J10) and the burdens and lifetimes of ultrafinemode (10 nm=Dp =70 nm) particles but have less impact on the burdens and lifetimes of CCN-sized particles. The models using parameterized microphysics (i.e., 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries) result in higher J10 and shorter coagulation lifetimes of ultrafine-mode particles than the model with explicit dynamics (i.e., 1 nm boundary). The spatial distributions of CN10 (Dp =10 nm) and CCN(0.2 %) (i.e., CCN concentrations at 0.2%supersaturation) are moderately affected, especially CN10 predictions above 700 h

  4. A Primer In Advanced Fatigue Life Prediction Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halford, Gary R.

    2000-01-01

    Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelop is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelop as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

  5. Advanced propeller noise prediction in the time domain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farassat, F.; Dunn, M. H.; Spence, P. L.

    1992-01-01

    The time domain code ASSPIN gives acousticians a powerful technique of advanced propeller noise prediction. Except for nonlinear effects, the code uses exact solutions of the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equation with exact blade geometry and kinematics. By including nonaxial inflow, periodic loading noise, and adaptive time steps to accelerate computer execution, the development of this code becomes complete.

  6. Predictive Biomarkers to Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Conde-Muíño, Raquel; Cuadros, Marta; Zambudio, Natalia; Segura-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Cano, Carlos; Palma, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    There has been a high local recurrence rate in rectal cancer. Besides improvements in surgical techniques, both neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and long-course chemoradiation improve oncological results. Approximately 40-60% of rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation achieve some degree of pathologic response. However, there is no effective method of predicting which patients will respond to neoadjuvant treatment. Recent studies have evaluated the potential of genetic biomarkers to predict outcome in locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation. The articles produced by the PubMed search were reviewed for those specifically addressing a genetic profile's ability to predict response to neoadjuvant treatment in rectal cancer. Although tissue gene microarray profiling has led to promising data in cancer, to date, none of the identified signatures or molecular markers in locally advanced rectal cancer has been successfully validated as a diagnostic or prognostic tool applicable to routine clinical practice. PMID:26504848

  7. Predictive Biomarkers to Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Conde-Muíño, Raquel; Cuadros, Marta; Zambudio, Natalia; Segura-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Cano, Carlos; Palma, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    There has been a high local recurrence rate in rectal cancer. Besides improvements in surgical techniques, both neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and long-course chemoradiation improve oncological results. Approximately 40–60% of rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation achieve some degree of pathologic response. However, there is no effective method of predicting which patients will respond to neoadjuvant treatment. Recent studies have evaluated the potential of genetic biomarkers to predict outcome in locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation. The articles produced by the PubMed search were reviewed for those specifically addressing a genetic profile's ability to predict response to neoadjuvant treatment in rectal cancer. Although tissue gene microarray profiling has led to promising data in cancer, to date, none of the identified signatures or molecular markers in locally advanced rectal cancer has been successfully validated as a diagnostic or prognostic tool applicable to routine clinical practice. PMID:26504848

  8. The role of microphysics in the development of mesoscale areas of high winds around occluded cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, T. P.; Knippertz, P.; Blyth, A.

    2012-04-01

    Extratropical cyclones are an integral part of the weather in north-western Europe and can be associated with heavy precipitation and strong winds. While synoptic-scale aspects of these storms are often satisfactorily forecast several days in advance, mesoscale features within these systems such as bands of heavy rain or localized wind maxima, which are often the cause of the most damaging effects, are significantly less well understood and predicted by operational forecasts. Accurate predictions of the location, timing and intensity of these features are, however, highly important for the mitigation of the adverse effects that they bring. This is one of the motivations for the UK consortium DIAMET (DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExtraTropical storms) that is focused on improving the understanding and predictability of these potentially damaging mesoscale features embedded within larger synoptic-scale extratropical storms. The project is based around a number of field campaigns using the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe146 research aircraft along with other remote and in-situ measurements. An overview of the project will be presented by Geraint Vaughan in this session. This study analyses the effects of microphysics on the mesoscale dynamics within extratropical storms, in particular the high wind areas around occluded fronts wrapped around the core of a matured cyclonic storm. It has been hypothesized that evaporation and melting of hydrometeors in this region can lead to downward momentum transport and thereby increase near-surface winds (sometimes referred to as sting jets). The main tool for this study is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. High-resolution simulations are run for several cases from the DIAMET field campaigns to examine how the development of strong winds around occluded fronts is affected by the microphysics. The model results using different microphysics schemes are compared with the

  9. Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Rong; Duan, Wansuo; Mu, Mu

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, we explored potential observing locations (i.e., the sensitive areas) of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events to advance beyond the winter predictability barrier (WPB) using the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory climate model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1). The sensitivity analysis is conducted through perfect model predictability experiments, in which the model is assumed to be perfect and so any prediction errors are caused by initial errors. The results show that the initial errors with an east-west dipole pattern are more likely to result in a significant WPB than spatially correlated noises; the areas where the large values of the dipole pattern initial errors are located have great effects on prediction uncertainties in winter and provide useful information regarding the sensitive areas. Further, the prediction uncertainties in winter are more sensitive to the initial errors in the subsurface large value areas than to those in the surface large value areas. The results indicate that the subsurface large value areas are sensitive areas for advancing beyond the WPB of IOD predictions and if we carry out intensive observations across these areas, the prediction errors in winter may be largely reduced. This will lead to large improvements in the skill of wintertime IOD event forecasts.

  10. Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Microphysics Within Winter Storms using Field Data and In Situ Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colle, Brian A.; Yu, Ruyi; Molthan, Andrew L.; Nesbitt, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    It is hypothesized that microphysical predictions have greater uncertainties/errors when there are complex interactions that result from mixedphased processes like riming. Use Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground validation studies in Ontario, Canada to verify and improve parameterizations

  11. Evaluation of cloud microphysical schemes on aerosol indirect effects from different scale models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiu, C. J.; Chen, Y. H.; Hashino, T.; Tsai, I. C.; Chen, W. T.; Chen, J. P.; Hsu, H. H.

    2014-12-01

    Quantification of aerosol indirect effects in climate modeling remain unresolved and of large uncertainties. The complicated aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in climate model are suggested to be quite sensitive to some tunable microphysical parameters such as the threshold radius associated with autoconversion of cloud droplets to rain droplets. More fundamental studies regarding to different microphysical processes used in various cloud microphysical schemes should be devoted, evaluated and investigated. In this study, we apply a synergy of different scale models with the same cloud and aerosol microphysical schemes (Chen and Liu, 2004; Cheng et al., 2007; and Chen et al., 2013) to understand and evaluate how cloud microphysical processes can be influenced by different microphysical schemes and their interaction with aerosols and radiation. These models include Kinematic Driver (KiD), Single Column Model of Community Atmosphere Model (SCAM), Large Eddy Simulation (LES), and NCAR CESM model. Simulation results from these models will be further validated and compared to either field campaign or satellite observations depending on the scale of the models. Off-line satellite simulator approach (i.e. Joint-Simulator) will also be applied for evaluating cloud microphysics against CloudSat and CALIPSO. Such type of synergy of models can be very useful for improvement, development and evaluation of physical parameterizations for global climate prediction and weather forecast in the near future especially for processes related to cloud macrophysics and microphysics.

  12. Predicting binary merger event rates for advanced LIGO/Virgo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holz, Daniel; Belczynski, Chris; O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Bulik, Tomek; LIGO Collaboration

    2016-03-01

    We discuss estimates of the rates of mergers of binary systems composed of neutron stars and/or stellar mass black holes. We use the StarTrack population synthesis code, and make predictions for the detection rate of compact binary coalescences with the advanced LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave detectors. Because these instruments are sensitive to massive (M > 20M⊙) stellar-mass binary black holes mergers out to high redshift (z > 1), we discuss the cosmological effects which must be taken into account when calculating LIGO detection rates, including a generalization of the calculation of the ``peanut factor'' and the sensitive time-volume.

  13. Microphysics of Exoplanet Clouds and Hazes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Peter; Benneke, Björn; Knutson, Heather; Yung, Yuk

    2015-12-01

    Clouds and hazes are ubiquitous in the atmospheres of exoplanets. However, as most of these planets have temperatures between 600 and 2000 K, their clouds and hazes are likely composed of exotic condensates such as silicates, metals, and salts. We currently lack a satisfactory understanding of the microphysical processes that govern the distribution of these clouds and hazes, thus creating a gulf between the cloud properties retrieved from observations and the cloud composition predictions from condensation equilibrium models. In this work we present a 1D microphysical cloud model that calculates, from first principles, the rates of condensation, evaporation, coagulation, and vertical transport of chemically mixed cloud and haze particles in warm and hot exoplanet atmospheres. The model outputs the equilibrium number density of cloud particles with altitude, the particle size distribution, and the chemical makeup of the cloud particles as a function of altitude and particle mass. The model aims to (1) explain the observed variability in “cloudiness” of individual exoplanets, (2) assess whether the proposed cloud materials are capable of forming the observed particle distributions, and (3) examine the role clouds have in the transport of (cloud-forming) heavy elements in exoplanet atmospheres.

  14. Microphysics of Exoplanet Clouds and Hazes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Peter; Benneke, Björn; Knutson, Heather; Yung, Yuk

    2016-01-01

    Clouds and hazes are ubiquitous in the atmospheres of exoplanets. However, as most of these planets have temperatures between 600 and 2000 K, their clouds and hazes are likely composed of exotic condensates such as silicates, metals, and salts. We currently lack a satisfactory understanding of the microphysical processes that govern the distribution of these clouds and hazes, thus creating a gulf between the cloud properties retrieved from observations and the cloud composition predictions from condensation equilibrium models. In this work we present a 1D microphysical cloud model that calculates, from first principles, the rates of condensation, evaporation, coagulation, and vertical transport of chemically mixed cloud and haze particles in warm and hot exoplanet atmospheres. The model outputs the equilibrium number density of cloud particles with altitude, the particle size distribution, and the chemical makeup of the cloud particles as a function of altitude and particle mass. The model aims to (1) explain the observed variability in "cloudiness" of individual exoplanets, (2) assess whether the proposed cloud materials are capable of forming the observed particle distributions, and (3) examine the role clouds have in the transport of (cloud-forming) heavy elements in exoplanet atmospheres.

  15. Microphysics of Exoplanet Clouds and Hazes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Peter; Benneke, Björn; Knutson, Heather A.; Yung, Yuk L.

    2015-11-01

    Clouds and hazes are ubiquitous in the atmospheres of exoplanets. However, as most of these planets have temperatures between 600 and 2000 K, their clouds and hazes are likely composed of exotic condensates such as silicates, metals, and salts. We currently lack a satisfactory understanding of the microphysical processes that govern the distribution of these clouds and hazes, thus creating a gulf between the cloud properties retrieved from observations and the cloud composition predictions from condensation equilibrium models. In this work we present a 1D microphysical cloud model that calculates, from first principles, the rates of condensation, evaporation, coagulation, and vertical transport of chemically mixed cloud and haze particles in warm and hot exoplanet atmospheres. The model outputs the equilibrium number density of cloud particles with altitude, the particle size distribution, and the chemical makeup of the cloud particles as a function of altitude and particle mass. The model aims to (1) explain the observed variability in “cloudiness” of individual exoplanets, (2) assess whether the proposed cloud materials are capable of forming the observed particle distributions, and (3) examine the role clouds have in the transport of (cloud-forming) heavy elements in exoplanet atmospheres.

  16. Advection of Microphysical Scalars in Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahmad, Nashat N.; Proctor, Fred H.

    2011-01-01

    The Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS) is a large eddy scale atmospheric flow model with extensive turbulence and microphysics packages. It has been applied successfully in the past to a diverse set of problems ranging from prediction of severe convective events (Proctor et al. 2002), tracking storms and for simulating weapons effects such as the dispersion and fallout of fission debris (Bacon and Sarma 1991), etc. More recently, TASS has been used for predicting the transport and decay of wake vortices behind aircraft (Proctor 2009). An essential part of the TASS model is its comprehensive microphysics package, which relies on the accurate computation of microphysical scalar transport. This paper describes an evaluation of the Leonard scheme implemented in the TASS model for transporting microphysical scalars. The scheme is validated against benchmark cases with exact solutions and compared with two other schemes - a Monotone Upstream-centered Scheme for Conservation Laws (MUSCL)-type scheme after van Leer and LeVeque's high-resolution wave propagation method. Finally, a comparison between the schemes is made against an incident of severe tornadic super-cell convection near Del City, Oklahoma.

  17. Optical-Microphysical Cirrus Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reichardt, J.; Reichardt, S.; Lin, R.-F.; Hess, M.; McGee, T. J.; Starr, D. O.

    2008-01-01

    A model is presented that permits the simulation of the optical properties of cirrus clouds as measured with depolarization Raman lidars. It comprises a one-dimensional cirrus model with explicit microphysics and an optical module that transforms the microphysical model output to cloud and particle optical properties. The optical model takes into account scattering by randomly oriented or horizontally aligned planar and columnar monocrystals and polycrystals. Key cloud properties such as the fraction of plate-like particles and the number of basic crystals per polycrystal are parameterized in terms of the ambient temperature, the nucleation temperature, or the mass of the particles. The optical-microphysical model is used to simulate the lidar measurement of a synoptically forced cirrostratus in a first case study. It turns out that a cirrus cloud consisting of only monocrystals in random orientation is too simple a model scenario to explain the observations. However, good agreement between simulation and observation is reached when the formation of polycrystals or the horizontal alignment of monocrystals is permitted. Moreover, the model results show that plate fraction and morphological complexity are best parameterized in terms of particle mass, or ambient temperature which indicates that the ambient conditions affect cirrus optical properties more than those during particle formation. Furthermore, the modeled profiles of particle shape and size are in excellent agreement with in situ and laboratory studies, i.e., (partly oriented) polycrystalline particles with mainly planar basic crystals in the cloud bottom layer, and monocrystals above, with the fraction of columns increasing and the shape and size of the particles changing from large thin plates and long columns to small, more isometric crystals from cloud center to top. The findings of this case study corroborate the microphysical interpretation of cirrus measurements with lidar as suggested previously.

  18. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents recent thermal model results of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG). The three-dimensional (3D) ASRG thermal power model was built using the Thermal Desktop(trademark) thermal analyzer. The model was correlated with ASRG engineering unit test data and ASRG flight unit predictions from Lockheed Martin's (LM's) I-deas(trademark) TMG thermal model. The auxiliary cooling system (ACS) of the ASRG is also included in the ASRG thermal model. The ACS is designed to remove waste heat from the ASRG so that it can be used to heat spacecraft components. The performance of the ACS is reported under nominal conditions and during a Venus flyby scenario. The results for the nominal case are validated with data from Lockheed Martin. Transient thermal analysis results of ASRG for a Venus flyby with a representative trajectory are also presented. In addition, model results of an ASRG mounted on a Cassini-like spacecraft with a sunshade are presented to show a way to mitigate the high temperatures of a Venus flyby. It was predicted that the sunshade can lower the temperature of the ASRG alternator by 20 C for the representative Venus flyby trajectory. The 3D model also was modified to predict generator performance after a single Advanced Stirling Convertor failure. The geometry of the Microtherm HT insulation block on the outboard side was modified to match deformation and shrinkage observed during testing of a prototypic ASRG test fixture by LM. Test conditions and test data were used to correlate the model by adjusting the thermal conductivity of the deformed insulation to match the post-heat-dump steady state temperatures. Results for these conditions showed that the performance of the still-functioning inboard ACS was unaffected.

  19. A Global and Regional Multi-scale Advanced Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, D.; Xue, J.; Yang, X.; Zhang, H.; Liu, J.; Jin, Z.; Huang, L.; Wu, X.

    With social progress and economic development, the requirement for providing much longer, more detailed and more accurate meteorological forecasting services with higher resolution, including climate, synoptic and meso-scale weather forecasts, and air pollution as well as forest fire warning is increased significantly. On the other hand, to meet all needs of services, the numerical weather prediction models will be- come more and more complicated, and more and more ?huge?. The costs for improve- ment and maintenance will be expensive if several NWP systems are to be developed, improved and maintained at the same time and at the same center! In this paper, a Global and Regional multi-scale Advanced Prediction model System (GRAPS) was designed to meet all needs of short, medium and long range weather forecasts as well as environmental predictions. The main features of the GRAPS model include (1) full latitude-longitude grid points; (2) multi-scale in an unified model; (3) hydrostatic or non hydrostatic hypotheses optionally(4) variable or uniform resolution in option (5) possibility to run in regional or global mode(6) finite difference in the vertical dis- cretization in option (7) semi-implicit and semi-Lagrangian scheme; (8) height terrain- following coordinate; (9) Arakawa-C variable staggering; (10) Cascade-interpolation; (11) quasi-conservation of semi-Lagrangian advection scheme combined Staniforth (1992) and Preistley (1993).

  20. Evaluation of Model Microphysics Within Precipitation Bands of Extratropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colle, Brian A.; Yu, Ruyi; Molthan, Andrew L.; Nesbitt, Steven

    2014-01-01

    It is hypothesized microphysical predictions have greater uncertainties/errors when there are complex interactions that result from mixed phased processes like riming. Use Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground validation studies in Ontario, Canada to verify and improve parameterizations. The WRF realistically simulated the warm frontal snowband at relatively short lead times (1014 h). The snowband structire is sensitive to the microphysical parameterization used in WRF. The Goddard and SBUYLin most realistically predicted the band structure, but overpredicted snow content. The double moment Morrison scheme best produced the slope of the snow distribution, but it underpredicted the intercept. All schemes and the radar derived (which used dry snow ZR) underpredicted the surface precipitation amount, likely because there was more cloud water than expected. The Morrison had the most cloud water and the best precipitation prediction of all schemes.

  1. Simulating storm electrification with bin and bulk microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mansell, E. R.

    2013-12-01

    Simulated storm electrification can be highly dependent on the parameterizations of microphysical processes, particularly those involving ice particles. Commonly-used bulk microphysics assume a functional form of the particle size distribution and predict one or more moments of the distribution, such as total mass, number concentration, and reflectivity. Bin schemes, on the other hand, allow the particle spectrum to evolve by predicting the number of particles in discrete size ranges (bins). Bin schemes are often promoted as benchmark solutions, but have much greater computational expense and can have other disadvantages. Only a few studies have compared results for bin and bulk schemes within the same model framework, which controls for differences in model numerics and other physics. Here, the bin microphysics scheme of Takahashi has been incorporated into the COMMAS model for comparison with the 2-3-moment bulk scheme. The resulting electrification, charge structure and lightning are compared, as well. Charge separation and transfer have been newly added to the bin scheme, along with some updates to the physics, such as improved ice melting. Thus the same laboratory-based charging schemes from previous work can be used with both microphysics packages. The bulk and bin schemes generally have similar microphysical features in the simulations. Differences can result in part from differences the parameterizations of partical interactions (and particle types) as much as from the simple difference in size distributions. For example both the bin and bulk schemes are sensitive to the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei, as shown in recent work from the bulk scheme. Results will be presented for idealized 2-dimensional cases and for fully 3D simulations of a small multicell thunderstorms.

  2. The Super Tuesday Outbreak: Forecast Sensitivities to Single-Moment Microphysics Schemes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dembek, Scott R.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William M.

    2008-01-01

    Forecast precipitation and radar characteristics are used by operational centers to guide the issuance of advisory products. As operational numerical weather prediction is performed at increasingly finer spatial resolution, convective precipitation traditionally represented by sub-grid scale parameterization schemes is now being determined explicitly through single- or multi-moment bulk water microphysics routines. Gains in forecasting skill are expected through improved simulation of clouds and their microphysical processes. High resolution model grids and advanced parameterizations are now available through steady increases in computer resources. As with any parameterization, their reliability must be measured through performance metrics, with errors noted and targeted for improvement. Furthermore, the use of these schemes within an operational framework requires an understanding of limitations and an estimate of biases so that forecasters and model development teams can be aware of potential errors. The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Spring Experiments have produced daily, high resolution forecasts used to evaluate forecast skill among an ensemble with varied physical parameterizations and data assimilation techniques. In this research, high resolution forecasts of the 5-6 February 2008 Super Tuesday Outbreak are replicated using the NSSL configuration in order to evaluate two components of simulated convection on a large domain: sensitivities of quantitative precipitation forecasts to assumptions within a single-moment bulk water microphysics scheme, and to determine if these schemes accurately depict the reflectivity characteristics of well-simulated, organized, cold frontal convection. As radar returns are sensitive to the amount of hydrometeor mass and the distribution of mass among variably sized targets, radar comparisons may guide potential improvements to a single-moment scheme. In addition, object-based verification metrics are evaluated for

  3. Prediction of Corrosion of Advanced Materials and Fabricated Components

    SciTech Connect

    A. Anderko; G. Engelhardt; M.M. Lencka; M.A. Jakab; G. Tormoen; N. Sridhar

    2007-09-29

    The goal of this project is to provide materials engineers, chemical engineers and plant operators with a software tool that will enable them to predict localized corrosion of process equipment including fabricated components as well as base alloys. For design and revamp purposes, the software predicts the occurrence of localized corrosion as a function of environment chemistry and assists the user in selecting the optimum alloy for a given environment. For the operation of existing plants, the software enables the users to predict the remaining life of equipment and help in scheduling maintenance activities. This project combined fundamental understanding of mechanisms of corrosion with focused experimental results to predict the corrosion of advanced, base or fabricated, alloys in real-world environments encountered in the chemical industry. At the heart of this approach is the development of models that predict the fundamental parameters that control the occurrence of localized corrosion as a function of environmental conditions and alloy composition. The fundamental parameters that dictate the occurrence of localized corrosion are the corrosion and repassivation potentials. The program team, OLI Systems and Southwest Research Institute, has developed theoretical models for these parameters. These theoretical models have been applied to predict the occurrence of localized corrosion of base materials and heat-treated components in a variety of environments containing aggressive and non-aggressive species. As a result of this project, a comprehensive model has been established and extensively verified for predicting the occurrence of localized corrosion as a function of environment chemistry and temperature by calculating the corrosion and repassivation potentials.To support and calibrate the model, an experimental database has been developed to elucidate (1) the effects of various inhibiting species as well as aggressive species on localized corrosion of nickel

  4. A Microphysics Guide to Cirrus Clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krämer, Martina; Rolf, Christian; Luebke, Anna; Afchine, Armin; Spelten, Nicole; Costa, Anja; Zöger, Martin; Smith, Jessica; Herman, Robert; Buchholz, Bernhard; Ebert, Volker; Baumgardner, Darrel; Borrmann, Stephan; Klingebiel, Marcus; Avallone, Linnea

    2015-04-01

    Cirrus clouds still represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of the Earth's climate (IPCC, 2013) since their microphysical and radiative properties remain poorly or only partially characterized. One major reason is that it is difficult to measure these properties on fast-flying, high altitude aircraft. Another problem is that aircraft measurements cannot capture the evolution of the cirrus clouds properties with time. The most common parameters that are measured in cirrus clouds -besides the meteorological variables- are ice water content (IWC), number of ice crystals (Nice) and relative humidity (with respect to ice, RHice), and sometimes vertical velocity. However, it is difficult to deduce on the history of ice nucleation and development of microphysical properties from these observations. Our study aims to provide a guide to cirrus microphysics, which is compiled from an extensive set of model simulations covering the broad range of atmospheric conditions for cirrus formation and evolution. The model results are portrayed in the same parameter space as the field measurements, i.e. in the temperature - IWC parameter space. From this representation of simulated cirrus, we can relate the formation mechanism and history to specific combinations of IWC, Nice and RHice inside of cirrus as a function of temperature. We validate this analysis approach by evaluating measurements of about 60h in cirrus during fifteen aircraft campaigns conducted in the last fifteen years over Europe, Australia and Southern and Northern America. It can be shown that the field observations indeed show the characteristics expected from the cirrus guide. For example, high/low IWCs are found together with high/low Nice. As a result it is now possible to track, to a certain degree, the formation mechanism and history of the observed cirrus clouds only from the measurement of IWC and RHice. Important findings from our study are that (i) a substantial part of thick cirrus

  5. Observations of cloud microphysics and ice formation during COPE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, J. W.; Choularton, T. W.; Blyth, A. M.; Liu, Z.; Bower, K. N.; Crosier, J.; Gallagher, M. W.; Williams, P. I.; Dorsey, J. R.; Flynn, M. J.; Bennett, L. J.; Huang, Y.; French, J.; Korolev, A.; Brown, P. R. A.

    2015-06-01

    Intense rainfall generated by convective clouds causes flash flooding in many parts of the world. Understanding the microphysical processes leading to the formation of precipitation is one of the main challenges to improving our capability to make quantitative precipitation forecasts. Here, we present microphysics observations of cumulus clouds measured over the Southwest Peninsula of the UK during the COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) in August 2013, which are framed into a wider context using ground-based and airborne radar measurements. Two lines of cumulus clouds formed in the early afternoon along convergence lines aligned with the peninsula. The lines became longer and broader during the afternoon as a result of new cell formation and stratiform regions forming downwind of the convective cells. Aircraft penetrations at -5 °C showed that all the required conditions of the Hallett-Mossop (H-M) ice multiplication process were met in developing regions, and ice concentrations up to 350 L-1 were measured in the mature stratiform regions, indicating that secondary ice production was active. Detailed sampling focused on an isolated liquid cloud that glaciated as it matured to merge with a band of cloud downwind. In the initial cell, a few drizzle drops were measured, some of which froze to form graupel; the ice images are most consistent with freezing drizzle, rather than smaller cloud drops forming the first ice. As new cells developed in and around the cloud, ice concentrations up to two orders of magnitude higher than the predicted ice nuclei concentrations began to be observed and the cloud glaciated over a period of 12-15 min. Ice splinters were captured by supercooled drizzle drops causing them to freeze to form instant-rimers. Graupel and columns were observed in cloud penetrations up to the -12 °C level, though many ice particles were mixed-habit due to riming and growth by vapour diffusion at multiple temperatures. Frozen drizzle

  6. Prediction of concurrent chemoradiotherapy outcome in advanced oropharyngeal cancer

    PubMed Central

    HASEGAWA, MASAHIRO; MAEDA, HIROYUKI; DENG, ZEYI; KIYUNA, ASANORI; GANAHA, AKIRA; YAMASHITA, YUKASHI; MATAYOSHI, SEN; AGENA, SHINYA; TOITA, TAKAFUMI; UEHARA, TAKAYUKI; SUZUKI, MIKIO

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate human papillomavirus (HPV) infection as a predictor of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) response and indicator of planned neck dissection (PND) for patients with advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC; stage III/IV). Overall, 39 OPSCC patients (32 men, 7 women; median age 61 years, range 39–79 years) were enrolled. The primary lesion and whole neck were irradiated up to 50.4 Gy, and subsequently the primary site and metastatic lymph nodes were boosted with a further 16.2 Gy. Although several chemotherapy regimens were employed, 82.1% of OPSCC patients received the combination of nedaplatin and 5-fluorouracil. HPV-related OPSCC (16 cases) was defined as both HPV DNA-positive status by polymerase chain reaction and p16INK4a overexpression by immunohistochemistry. Patients with N2 and N3 disease received PND 2–3 months after CCRT completion. Compared to non-responders, CCRT responders showed significantly lower nodal stage (N0 to N2b) and HPV-positive status in univariate analysis. Patients with HPV-related OPSCC had longer time to treatment failure (TTF) than those with HPV-unrelated OPSCC (p=0.040). Three-year TTF was 81.3 and 47.8% in the HPV-related and HPV-unrelated groups, respectively. There were also significant differences in disease-free survival (DFS) between the two OPSCC patient groups (p=0.042). Three-year DFS was 93.8 and 66.7% in patients with HPV-related and HPV-unrelated OPSCC, respectively. Multivariate logistic analysis showed a lower risk of TTF event occurrence in HPV-related OPSCC (p=0.041) than in HPV-unrelated OPSCC. Thus, HPV testing in addition to nodal stage was useful for predicting CCRT response, especially in advanced OPSCC. Because patients who received PND showed moderate locoregional control, PND is an effective surgical procedure for controlling neck lesions in patients with advanced HPV-unrelated disease. PMID:24969413

  7. Intel Xeon Phi accelerated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Goddard microphysics scheme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mielikainen, J.; Huang, B.; Huang, A. H.-L.

    2014-12-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both atmospheric research and operational forecasting needs. The WRF development is a done in collaboration around the globe. Furthermore, the WRF is used by academic atmospheric scientists, weather forecasters at the operational centers and so on. The WRF contains several physics components. The most time consuming one is the microphysics. One microphysics scheme is the Goddard cloud microphysics scheme. It is a sophisticated cloud microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The Goddard microphysics scheme is very suitable for massively parallel computation as there are no interactions among horizontal grid points. Compared to the earlier microphysics schemes, the Goddard scheme incorporates a large number of improvements. Thus, we have optimized the Goddard scheme code. In this paper, we present our results of optimizing the Goddard microphysics scheme on Intel Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) hardware. The Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor is the first product based on Intel MIC architecture, and it consists of up to 61 cores connected by a high performance on-die bidirectional interconnect. The Intel MIC is capable of executing a full operating system and entire programs rather than just kernels as the GPU does. The MIC coprocessor supports all important Intel development tools. Thus, the development environment is one familiar to a vast number of CPU developers. Although, getting a maximum performance out of MICs will require using some novel optimization techniques. Those optimization techniques are discussed in this paper. The results show that the optimizations improved performance of Goddard microphysics scheme on Xeon Phi 7120P by a factor of 4.7×. In addition, the optimizations reduced the Goddard microphysics scheme's share of the total WRF processing time from 20.0 to 7.5%. Furthermore, the same optimizations

  8. Cloud Microphysics and Absorption Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ackerman, Steven

    2002-01-01

    Vertical distributions of particle size and habit were developed from in-situ data collected from three midlatitude cirrus field campaigns (FIRE-1, FIRE-2, and ARM IOP). These new midlatitude microphysical models were used to develop new cirrus scattering models at a number of wavelengths appropriate for use with the MODIS imager (Nasiri et al. 2002). This was the first successful collaborative effort between all the investigators on this proposal. Recent efforts have extended the midlatitude cirrus cloud analyses to tropical cirrus, using in-situ data collected during the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Kwajalein field campaign in 1999. We note that there are critical aspects to the work: a) Improvement in computing the scattering and radiative properties of ice crystals; b) Requirement for copious amounts of cirrus in-situ data, presented in terms of both particle size and habit distributions; c) Development of cirrus microphysical and optical models for various satellite, aircraft, and ground-based instruments based on the theoretical calculations and in-situ measurements; d) Application to satellite data.

  9. Cancer Pharmacogenomics: Integrating Discoveries in Basic, Clinical and Population Sciences to Advance Predictive Cancer Care

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer Pharmacogenomics: Integrating Discoveries in Basic, Clinical and Population Sciences to Advance Predictive Cancer Care, a 2010 workshop sponsored by the Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program.

  10. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 1, Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Cuccio, J.C.; Brehm, P.; Fang, H.T.

    1995-03-01

    Emphasis of this program is to develop and demonstrate ceramics life prediction methods, including fast fracture, stress rupture, creep, oxidation, and nondestructive evaluation. Significant advancements were made in these methods and their predictive capabilities successfully demonstrated.

  11. Improving Bulk Microphysics Parameterizations in Simulations of Aerosol Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Yuan; Fan, Jiwen; Zhang, Renyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Franklin, Charmaine N.

    2013-06-05

    To improve the microphysical parameterizations for simulations of the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) in regional and global climate models, a double-moment bulk microphysical scheme presently implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is modified and the results are compared against atmospheric observations and simulations produced by a spectral bin microphysical scheme (SBM). Rather than using prescribed aerosols as in the original bulk scheme (Bulk-OR), a prognostic doublemoment aerosol representation is introduced to predict both the aerosol number concentration and mass mixing ratio (Bulk-2M). The impacts of the parameterizations of diffusional growth and autoconversion and the selection of the embryonic raindrop radius on the performance of the bulk microphysical scheme are also evaluated. Sensitivity modeling experiments are performed for two distinct cloud regimes, maritime warm stratocumulus clouds (SC) over southeast Pacific Ocean from the VOCALS project and continental deep convective clouds (DCC) in the southeast of China from the Department of Energy/ARM Mobile Facility (DOE/AMF) - China field campaign. The results from Bulk-2M exhibit a much better agreement in the cloud number concentration and effective droplet radius in both the SC and DCC cases with those from SBM and field measurements than those from Bulk-OR. In the SC case particularly, Bulk-2M reproduces the observed drizzle precipitation, which is largely inhibited in Bulk-OR. Bulk-2M predicts enhanced precipitation and invigorated convection with increased aerosol loading in the DCC case, consistent with the SBM simulation, while Bulk-OR predicts the opposite behaviors. Sensitivity experiments using four different types of autoconversion schemes reveal that the autoconversion parameterization is crucial in determining the raindrop number, mass concentration, and drizzle formation for warm 2 stratocumulus clouds. An embryonic raindrop size of 40 μm is determined as a more

  12. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) Science Infusion Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaake, J.; Smith, G.; Carter, G.

    2002-05-01

    NWS is implementing an Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) Science initiative to meet NWS Vision 2005 goals and related hydrologic services requirements, including the goal of being a world leader using state of the art forecast science and technology. AHPS includes a science infusion strategy to meet the following objectives: extend forecast lead time, improve forecast accuracy, and provide better information for user decisions. AHPS will meet these goals by implementing hydrologic forecast models tuned to local conditions and operated to account for uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts. AHPS will use ensemble weather and climate forecasts of precipitation and other conditions, such as air temperature, that affect the forecasts. This ensemble approach to weather, climate and water forecasting will provide a probabilistic basis for AHPS forecast products. Meeting AHPS goals and objectives requires an infusion of new science into the existing forecast system. Three AHPS requirements for science infusion are: 1. Quantify the uncertainty of river forecasts and provide users with a clear view of future hydrologic conditions together with hard evidence that AHPS products are based on valid forecast probability information; 2. Reduce the space and time scale, improve the accuracy, and extend the lead time of hydrologic forecasts. Demonstrate that new improvements to hydrologic forecast procedures add value to the forecasts and meet user requirements; 3. Improve the ability of forecasters to use the tools provided by integrating these into an efficient operational forecast system that includes automatic techniques for data quality control, access to data, model calibration, data assimilation, processing of ensemble forecasts, verification of forecasts and monitoring of all stages of the forecast process.

  13. Sensitivity of WRF precipitation on microphysical and boundary layer parameterizations during extreme events in Eastern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pytharoulis, I.; Karagiannidis, A. F.; Brikas, D.; Katsafados, P.; Papadopoulos, A.; Mavromatidis, E.; Kotsopoulos, S.; Karacostas, T. S.

    2010-09-01

    Contemporary atmospheric numerical models contain a large number of physical parameterization schemes in order to represent the various atmospheric processes that take place in sub-grid scales. The choice of the proper combination of such schemes is a challenging task for research and particularly for operational purposes. This choice becomes a very important decision in cases of high impact weather in which the forecast errors and the concomitant societal impacts are expected to be large. Moreover, it is well known that one of the hardest tasks for numerical models is to predict precipitation with a high degree of accuracy. The use of complex and sophisticated schemes usually requires more computational time and resources, but it does not necessarily lead to better forecasts. The aim of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of the model predicted precipitation on the microphysical and boundary layer parameterizations during extreme events. The nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Advanced Research dynamic solver (WRF-ARW Version 3.1.1) is utilized. It is a flexible, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction system designed to operate in both research and operational mode in global and regional scales. Nine microphysical and two boundary layer schemes are combined in the sensitivity experiments. The 9 microphysical schemes are: i) Lin, ii) WRF Single Moment 5-classes, iii) Ferrier new Eta, iv) WRF Single Moment 6-classes, v) Goddard, vi) New Thompson V3.1, vii) WRF Double Moment 5-classes, viii) WRF Double Moment 6-classes, ix) Morrison. The boundary layer is parameterized using the schemes of: i) Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and ii) Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) level 2.5. The model is integrated at very high horizontal resolution (2 km x 2 km in the area of interest) utilizing 38 vertical levels. Three cases of high impact weather in Eastern Mediterranean, associated with strong synoptic scale forcing, are employed in the

  14. 76 FR 52954 - Workshop: Advancing Research on Mixtures; New Perspectives and Approaches for Predicting Adverse...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-24

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Workshop: Advancing Research on Mixtures; New Perspectives and Approaches for Predicting... ``Advancing Research on Mixtures: New Perspectives and Approaches for Predicting Adverse Human Health Effects... Research and Training, NIEHS, P.O. Box 12233, MD K3-04, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, (telephone)...

  15. Microphysical and macrophysical responses of marine stratocumulus polluted by underlying ships: Evidence of cloud deepening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christensen, Matthew W.; Stephens, Graeme L.

    2011-02-01

    Ship tracks observed by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) were analyzed to determine the extent to which aerosol plumes from ships passing below marine stratocumulus alter the microphysical and macrophysical properties of the clouds. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery was used to distinguish ship tracks embedded in closed, open, and undefined mesoscale cellular cloud structures. The impact of aerosol on the microphysical cloud properties in both the closed and open cell regimes were consistent with the changes predicted by the Twomey hypothesis. For the macrophysical changes, differences were observed between regimes. In the open cell regime, polluted clouds had significantly higher cloud tops (16%) and more liquid water (39%) than nearby unpolluted clouds. However, in the closed cell regime, polluted clouds exhibited no change in cloud top height and had less liquid water (-6%). Both microphysical (effective radius) and macrophysical (liquid water path) cloud properties contribute to a fractional change in cloud optical depth; in the closed cell regime the microphysical contribution was 3 times larger than the macrophysical contribution. However, the opposite was true in the open cell regime where the macrophysical contribution was nearly 2 times larger than the microphysical contribution because the aerosol probably increased cloud coverage. The results presented here demonstrate key differences aerosols have on the microphysical and macrophysical responses of boundary layer clouds between mesoscale stratocumulus convective regimes.

  16. Improving bulk microphysics parameterizations in simulations of aerosol effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yuan; Fan, Jiwen; Zhang, Renyi; Leung, L. Ruby; Franklin, Charmaine

    2013-06-01

    To improve the microphysical parameterizations for simulations of the aerosol effects in regional and global climate models, the Morrison double-moment bulk microphysical scheme presently implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model is modified by replacing the prescribed aerosols in the original bulk scheme (Bulk-OR) with a prognostic double-moment aerosol representation to predict both aerosol number concentration and mass mixing ratio (Bulk-2M). Sensitivity modeling experiments are performed for two distinct cloud regimes: maritime warm stratocumulus clouds (Sc) over southeast Pacific Ocean from the VOCALS project and continental deep convective clouds in the southeast of China. The results from Bulk-OR and Bulk-2M are compared against atmospheric observations and simulations produced by a spectral bin microphysical scheme (SBM). The prescribed aerosol approach (Bulk-OR) produces unreliable aerosol and cloud properties throughout the simulation period, when compared to the results from those using Bulk-2M and SBM, although all of the model simulations are initiated by the same initial aerosol concentration on the basis of the field observations. The impacts of the parameterizations of diffusional growth and autoconversion of cloud droplets and the selection of the embryonic raindrop radius on the performance of the bulk microphysical scheme are also evaluated by comparing the results from the modified Bulk-2M with those from SBM simulations. Sensitivity experiments using four different types of autoconversion schemes reveal that the autoconversion parameterization is crucial in determining the raindrop number, mass concentration, and drizzle formation for warm stratocumulus clouds. An embryonic raindrop size of 40 µm is determined as a more realistic setting in the autoconversion parameterization. The saturation adjustment employed in calculating condensation/evaporation in the bulk scheme is identified as the main factor responsible for the large

  17. Recent advances in predictability studies in China (1999-2002)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mu, Mu; Wansuo, Duan; Jifan, Chou

    2004-06-01

    Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly (1999), the predictability studies in China have made further progress during the period of 1999-2002. Firstly, three predictability sub-problems in numerical weather and climate prediction are classified, which are concerned with the maximum predictability time, the maximum prediction error, and the maximum allowable initial error, and then they are reduced into three nonlinear optimization problems. Secondly, the concepts of the nonlinear singular vector (NSV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) are proposed, which have been utilized to study the predictability of numerical weather and climate prediction. The results suggest that the nonlinear characteristics of the motions of atmosphere and oceans can be revealed by NSV and CNOP. Thirdly, attention has also been paid to the relations between the predictability and spatial-temporal scale, and between the model predictability and the machine precision, of which the investigations disclose the importance of the spatial-temporal scale and machine precision in the study of predictability. Also the cell-to-cell mapping is adopted to analyze globally the predictability of climate, which could provide a new subject to the research workers. Furthermore, the predictability of the summer rainfall in China is investigated by using the method of correlation coefficients. The results demonstrate that the predictability of summer rainfall is different in different areas of China. Analysis of variance, which is one of the statistical methods applicable to the study of predictability, is also used to study the potential predictability of monthly mean temperature in China, of which the conclusion is that the monthly mean temperature over China is potentially predictable at a statistical significance level of 0.10. In addition, in the analysis of the predictability of the T106 objective analysis/forecasting field, the variance

  18. [Research advance in the drug target prediction based on chemoinformatics].

    PubMed

    Fang, Jian-song; Liu, Ai-lin; Du, Guan-hua

    2014-10-01

    The emerging of network pharmacology and polypharmacology forces the scientists to recognize and explore new mechanisms of existing drugs. The drug target prediction can play a key significance on the elucidation of the molecular mechanism of drugs and drug reposition. In this paper, we systematically review the existing approaches to the prediction of biological targets of small molecule based on chemoinformatics, including ligand-based prediction, receptor-based prediction and data mining-based prediction. We also depict the strength of these methods as well as their applications, and put forward their developing direction. PMID:25577863

  19. Effects of microphysics, shallow and deep convection on MJO simulations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, C.; Pilon, R.; Dudhia, J.

    2015-12-01

    The nonhydrostatic global Model for Prediction Across Scale (MPAS) was used to simulate the November MJO event during the DYNAMO field campaign. Three mesh configurations were used: two with global uniform 60 km and 15 km grid spacing, respectively, and one with a 3 km grid spacing over the tropical Indian Ocean and 50 km for the rest of the world (50/3). The two cumulus parameterization schemes used in this study, Tiedtke and Grell-Freitas (GF), both include separated deep and shallow schemes that can be turned on and off individually. The GF scheme is scale aware. The Single Moment 6-class (WSM6) microphysics scheme was used. MPAS reproduced the MJO event with various degrees of success when the two cumulus schemes and their deep and shallow components were turned on and off. Microphysics and shallow convection each would help to reproduce MJO signals, with greater success at the 50/3 km mesh than 15 km. A deep cumulus scheme, on the other hand, may help or ruin MJO signals produced by microphysics and shallow schemes. The role of shallow convection is to provide moisture in the lower troposphere to reduce dry biases in the model and, in consequence, increase total precipitation. The capability of the model to produce MJO signals does not depend on the mean vertical profiles of diabatic heating profile, but are sensitive to mean vertical profiles of the moisture sink, which vary evidently with the shallow cumulus scheme.

  20. Microphysical Retrieval and Rain Rates of Drizzling Stratocumulus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elmer, N.; deSzoeke, S. P.

    2011-12-01

    Stratocumulus clouds play an important role in the radiation budget of the Earth. Climate models do a poor job modeling stratocumulus clouds, underestimating their radiative cooling effect, and resulting in large sea surface temperature discrepancies, the most noticeable of which is located in the southeast tropical Pacific Ocean. An understanding of the microphysical processes within the cloud can provide vital insight into how to better model stratocumulus clouds. In 2008, the NOAA 94-GHz cloud radar measured reflectivity, Doppler velocity, and Doppler width data aboard the Ronald H. Brown on the VOCALS research cruise in the southeast Pacific Ocean. Profiles with maximum reflectivity at least 100 m below cloud base are identified as drizzling. The drop size distribution, modal radius, liquid water content, and rain rates for the drizzling stratocumulus clouds in this region were computed with the microphysical retrieval of Frisch et al. (1995). Comparing the cloud-base rain rates from the microphysical retrieval to the cloud-base Z-R relationship proposed by Comstock et al. (2004), we find cloud base rain rates from the microphysical retrieval span a wider range than the rain rate predicted by the Comstock et al. (2004) Z-R relationship. Drop size distributions with the same modal radius follow the relationship Z=aR^b with the exponent b=1.3 proposed by Comstock. Drop size distributions with modal radius less than 5 micrometers lie below Comstock's rain rate range (a<11), while distributions with modal radii greater than 20 micrometers lie above Comstock's rain rate range (a>84).

  1. A microphysics guide to cirrus clouds - Part 1: Cirrus types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krämer, M.; Rolf, C.; Luebke, A.; Afchine, A.; Spelten, N.; Costa, A.; Zöger, M.; Smith, J.; Herman, R.; Buchholz, B.; Ebert, V.; Baumgardner, D.; Borrmann, S.; Klingebiel, M.; Avallone, L.

    2015-11-01

    The microphysical and radiative properties of cirrus clouds continue to be beyond understanding and thus still represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of the Earth's climate (IPCC, 2013). Our study aims to provide a guide to cirrus microphysics, which is compiled from an extensive set of model simulations, covering the broad range of atmospheric conditions for cirrus formation and evolution. The model results are portrayed in the same parameter space as field measurements, i.e. in the Ice Water Content-Temperature (IWC-T) parameter space. We validate this cirrus analysis approach by evaluating cirrus data sets from seventeen aircraft campaigns, conducted in the last fifteen years, spending about 94 h in cirrus over Europe, Australia, Brazil as well as Southern and Northern America. Altogether, the approach of this study is to track cirrus IWC development with temperature by means of model simulations, compare with observations and then assign, to a certain degree, cirrus microphysics to the observations. Indeed, the field observations show characteristics expected from the simulated cirrus guide. For example, high/low IWCs are found together with high/low ice crystal concentrations Nice. An important finding from our study is the classification of two types of cirrus with differing formation mechanisms and microphysical properties: the first cirrus type is rather thin with lower IWCs and forms directly as ice (in-situ origin cirrus). The second type consists predominantly of thick cirrus originating from mixed phase clouds (i.e. via freezing of liquid droplets - liquid origin cirrus), which are completely glaciated while lifting to the cirrus formation temperature region (< 235 K). In the European field campaigns, in-situ origin cirrus occur frequently at slow updrafts in low and high pressure systems, but also in conjunction with faster updrafts. Also, liquid origin cirrus mostly related to warm conveyor belts are found. In the US and tropical

  2. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This presentation describes the capabilities of three-dimensional thermal power model of advanced stirling radioisotope generator (ASRG). The performance of the ASRG is presented for different scenario, such as Venus flyby with or without the auxiliary cooling system.

  3. The microphysical pathway to contrail formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kärcher, B.; Burkhardt, U.; Bier, A.; Bock, L.; Ford, I. J.

    2015-08-01

    A conceptual framework to predict microphysical and optical properties of contrail particles within a wingspan behind the source aircraft is developed. Results from two decades of contrail observations and numerical simulations are reviewed forming the basis of theoretical model development. The model utilizes cloud theory applied to the dynamics and thermodynamics of jet aircraft exhaust plumes in upper tropospheric conditions. Droplet nuclei include soot particles emitted from aircraft engines and atmospheric particles entrained into the plume. These precursor particles activate into copious homogeneously freezing water droplets as the plume relative humidity rises beyond liquid water saturation. A unimodal size spectrum of ice particles develops wherein ice particles grow to micrometer mean sizes. Contrail particle formation is analyzed over a wide range of soot emissions relating to conventional jet fuels as well as to alternative aviation fuels producing much less soot and volatile particle emissions. For current aviation fuels and propulsion technology, the number of contrail ice particles scales roughly in proportion to the number of emitted soot particles that act as water condensation nuclei despite their poor hygroscopicity. Close to the contrail formation threshold, only few plume particles can be water activated and freeze. Implications for effects of alternative fuels on contrails, an arena for future scientific exploration, are outlined.

  4. The microphysics of collisionless shocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Lynn Bruce, III

    2010-11-01

    Shock waves in interplanetary (IP) space are of considerable interest due to their potential to damage ground based electronic systems and their ability to energize charged particles. The energization of charged particles at IP shocks has the obvious extrapolation to supernova shock waves, which are thought to be a candidate for generating the most energetic particles in the universe. The observations and theory behind collisionless shock wave evolution suggest that IP shocks should, for the most part, be stable structures which require energy dissipation. In a regular fluid, like our atmosphere, energy dissipation is accomplished through binary particle collisions transferring the loss of bulk flow kinetic energy to heat. Plasmas are mostly collisionless fluids, thus requiring other means by which to dissipate energy. The studies herein were performed using wave and particle data primarily from the Wind spacecraft to investigate the microphysics of IP shock energy dissipation mechanisms. Due to their lower Mach numbers, more simplified geometry, and quasi-perpendicular nature, IP shock waves are an excellent laboratory to study wave-particle related dissipation mechanisms. Utilization of multiple data sets from multiple high time resolution instruments on board the Wind spacecraft, we have performed studies on the transition region microphysics of IP shocks. The work began with a statistical study of high frequency (≥ 1 kHz) waveform capture data during 67 IP shocks with Mach numbers ranging from ∼1-6 found ion-acoustic wave amplitudes correlated with the fast mode Mach number and shock strength. The ion-acoustic waves (IAWs) were estimated to produce anomalous resistivities roughly seven orders of magnitude above classical estimates. Another study was an examination of low frequency waves (0.25 Hz < f < 10 Hz) at five quasi-perpendicular IP shocks found the wave modes to be consistent with oblique precusor whistler waves at four of the events. The strongest

  5. Advances and Computational Tools towards Predictable Design in Biological Engineering

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The design process of complex systems in all the fields of engineering requires a set of quantitatively characterized components and a method to predict the output of systems composed by such elements. This strategy relies on the modularity of the used components or the prediction of their context-dependent behaviour, when parts functioning depends on the specific context. Mathematical models usually support the whole process by guiding the selection of parts and by predicting the output of interconnected systems. Such bottom-up design process cannot be trivially adopted for biological systems engineering, since parts function is hard to predict when components are reused in different contexts. This issue and the intrinsic complexity of living systems limit the capability of synthetic biologists to predict the quantitative behaviour of biological systems. The high potential of synthetic biology strongly depends on the capability of mastering this issue. This review discusses the predictability issues of basic biological parts (promoters, ribosome binding sites, coding sequences, transcriptional terminators, and plasmids) when used to engineer simple and complex gene expression systems in Escherichia coli. A comparison between bottom-up and trial-and-error approaches is performed for all the discussed elements and mathematical models supporting the prediction of parts behaviour are illustrated. PMID:25161694

  6. firestar--advances in the prediction of functionally important residues.

    PubMed

    Lopez, Gonzalo; Maietta, Paolo; Rodriguez, Jose Manuel; Valencia, Alfonso; Tress, Michael L

    2011-07-01

    firestar is a server for predicting catalytic and ligand-binding residues in protein sequences. Here, we present the important developments since the first release of firestar. Previous versions of the server required human interpretation of the results; the server is now fully automatized. firestar has been implemented as a web service and can now be run in high-throughput mode. Prediction coverage has been greatly improved with the extension of the FireDB database and the addition of alignments generated by HHsearch. Ligands in FireDB are now classified for biological relevance. Many of the changes have been motivated by the critical assessment of techniques for protein structure prediction (CASP) ligand-binding prediction experiment, which provided us with a framework to test the performance of firestar. URL: http://firedb.bioinfo.cnio.es/Php/FireStar.php. PMID:21672959

  7. Advanced GIS Exercise: Predicting Rainfall Erosivity Index Using Regression Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Post, Christopher J.; Goddard, Megan A.; Mikhailova, Elena A.; Hall, Steven T.

    2006-01-01

    Graduate students from a variety of agricultural and natural resource fields are incorporating geographic information systems (GIS) analysis into their graduate research, creating a need for teaching methodologies that help students understand advanced GIS topics for use in their own research. Graduate-level GIS exercises help students understand…

  8. Factors that Predict Who Takes Advanced Courses in Cognitive Therapy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pehlivanidis, Artemios

    2007-01-01

    Training in Cognitive Therapy (CT) includes theoretical and didactic components combined with clinical supervision. An introductory course in CT might satisfy training needs in psychotherapy and help in the selection of those trainees who wish to continue to an advanced training level. Predictors of success at such an introductory course have been…

  9. Aerosol Mass Loading, Mixing State, Size and Number in Present Day (2000) and Future (2100): Study with the Advanced Particle Microphysics (APM) module in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, G.; Yu, F.

    2014-12-01

    Aerosols affect the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing sunlight (direct effects) and by changing the microphysical properties, lifetime, and coverage of clouds (indirect effects). One of the key challenges in quantifying the aerosol direct and indirect effects is to deep our understanding about the size distribution, size-resolved composition, and mixing state of aerosols. However, detailed information on size distribution and mixing state is often not available or incomplete in current climate models. Here, we incorporated APM into CESM. APM is a multi-type, multi-component (sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, SOA, BC, OC, dust, and sea salt), size-resolved particle microphysics model. Online chemistry, up-to-date nucleation, oxidation aging of medium-volatile and semi-volatile organic gases, aerosol-cloud interaction with stratiform cloud, shallow convection cloud, and deep convection cloud are considered. The amounts of secondary species coated on primary particles, through condensation, coagulation, equilibrium uptake, and aqueous chemistry, are also tracked. Model results are compared with aerosol mass observed by IMPROVE/EMEP, vertical structure of global particle number from aircraft-based field campaigns, particle and cloud condensation nuclei number at ground-based stations, aerosol optical properties retrieved by several satellites. Model results can capture the major characteristics shown in these observations. With this model system, we find that global burdens of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, BC, OC from 2000 to 2100, under scenario RCP 4.5 where total radiative forcing is stabilized before 2100, are decreased by 44%, 50%, 43%, 40%, 40%, respectively. Dust and sea salt increase slightly. Global burdens of secondary species coated on BCOC, dust, and sea salt are deceased by 34%, 30% and 60%, respectively. Global averaged aerosol number in the lower troposphere (from surface to 3 km) is significantly decreased, especially for particles smaller than

  10. Advances in fatigue life prediction methodology for metallic materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, J. C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The capabilities of a plasticity-induced crack-closure model to predict small- and large-crack growth rates, and in some cases total fatigue life, for four aluminum alloys and three titanium alloys under constant-amplitude, variable-amplitude, and spectrum loading are described. Equations to calculate a cyclic-plastic-zone corrected effective stress-intensity factor range from a cyclic J-integral and crack-closure analysis of large cracks were reviewed. The effective stress-intensity factor range against crack growth rate relations were used in the closure model to predict small- and large-crack growth under variable-amplitude and spectrum loading. Using the closure model and microstructural features, a total fatigue life prediction method is demonstrated for three aluminum alloys under various load histories.

  11. Precipitation and microphysical processes observed by three polarimetric X-band radars and ground-based instrumentation during HOPE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Xinxin; Evaristo, Raquel; Simmer, Clemens; Handwerker, Jan; Trömel, Silke

    2016-06-01

    This study presents a first analysis of precipitation and related microphysical processes observed by three polarimetric X-band Doppler radars (BoXPol, JuXPol and KiXPol) in conjunction with a ground-based network of disdrometers, rain gauges and vertically pointing micro rain radars (MRRs) during the High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction (HD(CP)2) Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE) during April and May 2013 in Germany. While JuXPol and KiXPol were continuously observing the central HOPE area near Forschungszentrum Jülich at a close distance, BoXPol observed the area from a distance of about 48.5 km. MRRs were deployed in the central HOPE area and one MRR close to BoXPol in Bonn, Germany. Seven disdrometers and three rain gauges providing point precipitation observations were deployed at five locations within a 5 km × 5 km region, while three other disdrometers were collocated with the MRR in Bonn. The daily rainfall accumulation at each rain gauge/disdrometer location estimated from the three X-band polarimetric radar observations showed very good agreement. Accompanying microphysical processes during the evolution of precipitation systems were well captured by the polarimetric X-band radars and corroborated by independent observations from the other ground-based instruments.

  12. Advances in the Assessment and Prediction of Interpersonal Violence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mills, Jeremy F.

    2005-01-01

    This article underscores the weakness of clinical judgment as a mechanism for prediction with examples from other areas in the psychological literature. Clinical judgment has as its Achilles' heel the reliance on a person to incorporate multiple pieces of information while overcoming human judgment errors - a feat insurmountable thus far. The…

  13. Atmospheric microphysical experiments on an orbital platform

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eaton, L. R.

    1974-01-01

    The Zero-Gravity Atmospheric Cloud Physics Laboratory is a Shuttle/Spacelab payload which will be capable of performing a large range of microphysics experiments. This facility will complement terrestrial cloud physics research by allowing many experiments to be performed which cannot be accomplished within the confines of a terrestrial laboratory. This paper reviews the general Cloud Physics Laboratory concept and the experiment scope. The experimental constraints are given along with details of the proposed equipment. Examples of appropriate experiments range from three-dimensional simulation of the earth and planetary atmosphere and of ocean circulation to cloud electrification processes and the effects of atmospheric pollution materials on microphysical processes.

  14. Life prediction of advanced materials for gas turbine application

    SciTech Connect

    Zamrik, S.Y.; Ray, A.; Koss, D.A.

    1995-10-01

    Most of the studies on the low cycle fatigue life prediction have been reported under isothermal conditions where the deformation of the material is strain dependent. In the development of gas turbines, components such as blades and vanes are exposed to temperature variations in addition to strain cycling. As a result, the deformation process becomes temperature and strain dependent. Therefore, the life of the component becomes sensitive to temperature-strain cycling which produces a process known as {open_quotes}thermomechanical fatigue, or TMF{close_quotes}. The TMF fatigue failure phenomenon has been modeled using conventional fatigue life prediction methods, which are not sufficiently accurate to quantitatively establish an allowable design procedure. To add to the complexity of TMF life prediction, blade and vane substrates are normally coated with aluminide, overlay or thermal barrier type coatings (TBC) where the durability of the component is dominated by the coating/substrate constitutive response and by the fatigue behavior of the coating. A number of issues arise from TMF depending on the type of temperature/strain phase cycle: (1) time-dependent inelastic behavior can significantly affect the stress response. For example, creep relaxation during a tensile or compressive loading at elevated temperatures leads to a progressive increase in the mean stress level under cyclic loading. (2) the mismatch in elastic and thermal expansion properties between the coating and the substrate can lead to significant deviations in the coating stress levels due to changes in the elastic modulii. (3) the {open_quotes}dry{close_quotes} corrosion resistance coatings applied to the substrate may act as primary crack initiation sites. Crack initiation in the coating is a function of the coating composition, its mechanical properties, creep relaxation behavior, thermal strain range and the strain/temperature phase relationship.

  15. Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties Within a Single-Moment Microphysics Scheme

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Petersen, Walter A.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dembek, S. R.

    2010-01-01

    As computational resources continue their expansion, weather forecast models are transitioning to the use of parameterizations that predict the evolution of hydrometeors and their microphysical processes, rather than estimating the bulk effects of clouds and precipitation that occur on a sub-grid scale. These parameterizations are referred to as single-moment, bulk water microphysics schemes, as they predict the total water mass among hydrometeors in a limited number of classes. Although the development of single moment microphysics schemes have often been driven by the need to predict the structure of convective storms, they may also provide value in predicting accumulations of snowfall. Predicting the accumulation of snowfall presents unique challenges to forecasters and microphysics schemes. In cases where surface temperatures are near freezing, accumulated depth often depends upon the snowfall rate and the ability to overcome an initial warm layer. Precipitation efficiency relates to the dominant ice crystal habit, as dendrites and plates have relatively large surface areas for the accretion of cloud water and ice, but are only favored within a narrow range of ice supersaturation and temperature. Forecast models and their parameterizations must accurately represent the characteristics of snow crystal populations, such as their size distribution, bulk density and fall speed. These properties relate to the vertical distribution of ice within simulated clouds, the temperature profile through latent heat release, and the eventual precipitation rate measured at the surface. The NASA Goddard, single-moment microphysics scheme is available to the operational forecast community as an option within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The NASA Goddard scheme predicts the occurrence of up to six classes of water mass: vapor, cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow and either graupel or hail.

  16. Modelling Aerodynamically Generated Sound: Recent Advances in Rotor Noise Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brentner, Kenneth S.

    2000-01-01

    A great deal of progress has been made in the modeling of aerodynamically generated sound for rotors over the past decade. The Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H ) equation has been the foundation for much of the development. Both subsonic and supersonic quadrupole noise formulations have been developed for the prediction of high-speed impulsive noise. In an effort to eliminate the need to compute the quadrupole contribution, the FW-H has also been utilized on permeable surfaces surrounding all physical noise sources. Comparison of the Kirchhoff formulation for moving surfaces with the FW-H equation have shown that the Kirchhoff formulation for moving surfaces can give erroneous results for aeroacoustic problems.

  17. Recent advances using rodent models for predicting human allergenicity

    SciTech Connect

    Knippels, Leon M.J. . E-mail: Knippels@voeding.tno.nl; Penninks, Andre H.

    2005-09-01

    The potential allergenicity of newly introduced proteins in genetically engineered foods has become an important safety evaluation issue. However, to evaluate the potential allergenicity and the potency of new proteins in our food, there are still no widely accepted and reliable test systems. The best-known allergy assessment proposal for foods derived from genetically engineered plants was the careful stepwise process presented in the so-called ILSI/IFBC decision tree. A revision of this decision tree strategy was proposed by a FAO/WHO expert consultation. As prediction of the sensitizing potential of the novel introduced protein based on animal testing was considered to be very important, animal models were introduced as one of the new test items, despite the fact that non of the currently studied models has been widely accepted and validated yet. In this paper, recent results are summarized of promising models developed in rat and mouse.

  18. Advanced electric field computation for RF sheaths prediction with TOPICA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milanesio, Daniele; Maggiora, Riccardo

    2012-10-01

    The design of an Ion Cyclotron (IC) launcher is not only driven by its coupling properties, but also by its capability of maintaining low parallel electric fields in front of it, in order to provide good power transfer to plasma and to reduce the impurities production. However, due to the impossibility to verify the antenna performances before the starting of the operations, advanced numerical simulation tools are the only alternative to carry out a proper antenna design. With this in mind, it should be clear that the adoption of a code, such as TOPICA [1], able to precisely take into account a realistic antenna geometry and an accurate plasma description, is extremely important to achieve these goals. Because of the recently introduced features that allow to compute the electric field distribution everywhere inside the antenna enclosure and in the plasma column, the TOPICA code appears to be the only alternative to understand which elements may have a not negligible impact on the antenna design and then to suggest further optimizations in order to mitigate RF potentials. The present work documents the evaluation of the electric field map from actual antennas, like the Tore Supra Q5 and the JET A2 launchers, and the foreseen ITER IC antenna. [4pt] [1] D. Milanesio et al., Nucl. Fusion 49, 115019 (2009).

  19. Microphysics and Southern Ocean Cloud Feedback

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCoy, Daniel T.

    Global climate models (GCMs) change their cloud properties in the Southern Ocean (SO) with warming in a qualitatively consistent fashion. Cloud albedo increases in the mid-latitudes and cloud fraction decreases in the subtropics. This creates a distinctive 'dipole' structure in the SW cloud feedback. However, the shape of the dipole varies from model to model. In this thesis we discuss the microphysical mechanisms underlying the SW cloud feedback over the mid-latitude SO. We will focus on the negative lobe of the dipole. The negative SW cloud feedback in the mid-latitudes is created by transitions from ice to liquid in models. If ice transitions to liquid in mixed-phase clouds the cloud albedo increases because ice crystals are larger than liquid droplets and therefore more reflective for a constant mass of water. Decreases in precipitation efficiency further enhance this effect by decreasing sinks of cloud water. This transition is dependent on the mixed-phase cloud parameterization. Parameterizations vary wildly between models and GCMs disagree by up to 35 K on the temperature where ice and liquid are equally prevalent. This results in a wide spread in the model predictions of the increase in liquid water path (LWP, where the path is the vertically integrated mass of water) with warming that drives the negative optical depth cloud feedback. It is found that this disagreement also results in a wide array of climate mean-states as models that create liquid at lower temperatures have a higher mean-state LWP, lower ice water path (IWP), and higher condensed (ice and liquid) water path (CWP). This presents a problem in climate models. GCMs need to have a reasonable planetary albedo in their climate mean-state. We show evidence that GCMs have tuned cloud fraction to compensate for the variation in mid-latitude cloud albedo driven by the mixed-phase cloud parameterization. This tuning results in mid-latitude clouds that are both too few and too bright as well as a

  20. High resolution WRF simulations of Hurricane Irene: Sensitivity to aerosols and choice of microphysical schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khain, A.; Lynn, B.; Shpund, J.

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have pointed to the possible sensitivity of hurricanes to aerosols via aerosol effects on microphysical and thermodynamic processes in clouds. Hurricane Irene, occurring in August 2011, is an excellent case study for investigating aerosol effects on tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity: it moved northward along the eastern coast of the United States, and weakened much faster than was predicted by the National Hurricane Center. Moreover, the minimum pressure in Irene occurred, atypically, about 40 h later than the time of maximum wind speed. In this study, we simulate Hurricane Irene with 1-km grid spacing using Spectral Bin Microphysics (SBM) and various bulk microphysical schemes in WRF. Simulations with SBM showed that aerosols penetrating the eyewall of Irene from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) led to an intensification of convection at Irene's eyewall and to a deepening of the hurricane. When Irene moved along the eastern coast of the United States, continental aerosols led to an intensification of convection at Irene's periphery, which interfered with the re-forming of the inner eyewall and to Irene weakening. Sensitivity tests using different "bulk" microphysics schemes indicated a large dispersion of simulated minimum pressure and maximum wind between different simulations. This showed that the simulated hurricane intensity was very sensitive to microphysical processes. Moreover, in consequence, forecast hurricane intensity was highly dependent on the choice of microphysical scheme. New bulk-parameterization schemes simulated the tropical storm intensity of Irene reasonably well. Most bulk schemes that used saturation adjustment indicate the weak sensitivity to aerosols that prevents them from precisely predicting the time evolution of TC intensity and structure.

  1. Investigation of advanced UQ for CRUD prediction with VIPRE.

    SciTech Connect

    Eldred, Michael Scott

    2011-09-01

    This document summarizes the results from a level 3 milestone study within the CASL VUQ effort. It demonstrates the application of 'advanced UQ,' in particular dimension-adaptive p-refinement for polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation. The study calculates statistics for several quantities of interest that are indicators for the formation of CRUD (Chalk River unidentified deposit), which can lead to CIPS (CRUD induced power shift). Stochastic expansion methods are attractive methods for uncertainty quantification due to their fast convergence properties. For smooth functions (i.e., analytic, infinitely-differentiable) in L{sup 2} (i.e., possessing finite variance), exponential convergence rates can be obtained under order refinement for integrated statistical quantities of interest such as mean, variance, and probability. Two stochastic expansion methods are of interest: nonintrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), which computes coefficients for a known basis of multivariate orthogonal polynomials, and stochastic collocation (SC), which forms multivariate interpolation polynomials for known coefficients. Within the DAKOTA project, recent research in stochastic expansion methods has focused on automated polynomial order refinement ('p-refinement') of expansions to support scalability to higher dimensional random input spaces [4, 3]. By preferentially refining only in the most important dimensions of the input space, the applicability of these methods can be extended from O(10{sup 0})-O(10{sup 1}) random variables to O(10{sup 2}) and beyond, depending on the degree of anisotropy (i.e., the extent to which randominput variables have differing degrees of influence on the statistical quantities of interest (QOIs)). Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the application of these adaptive stochastic expansion methods to the analysis of CRUD using the VIPRE simulation tools for two different plant models of differing random dimension, anisotropy, and

  2. Indian summer monsoon simulations with CFSv2: a microphysics perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Hazra, Anupam; Saha, Subodh K.; Dhakate, Ashish; Pokhrel, Samir

    2015-05-01

    The present study explores the impact of two different microphysical parameterization schemes (i.e. Zhao and Carr, Mon Wea Rev 125:1931-1953, 1997:called as ZC; Ferrier, Amer Meteor Soc 280-283, 2002: called as BF) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) on Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Critical relative humidity (RHcrit) plays a crucial role for the realistic cloud formation in a general circulation model (GCM). Hence, impact of RHcrit along with microphysical scheme on ISM is evaluated in the study. Model performance is evaluated in terms of simulation of rainfall, lower and upper tropospheric circulations, cloud fraction, cloud condensate and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Climatological mean features of rainfall are better represented by all the sensitivity experiments. Overall, ZC schemes show relatively better rainfall patterns as compared to BF schemes. BF schemes along with 95 % RHcrit (called as BF95) show excess precipitable water over Indian Ocean basin region, which seems to be unrealistic. Lower and upper tropospheric features are well simulated in all the sensitivity experiments; however, upper tropospheric wind patterns are underestimated as compared to observation. Spatial pattern and vertical profile of cloud condensate is relatively better represented by ZC schemes as compared to BF schemes. Relatively more (less) cloud condensate at upper level has lead to relatively better (low) high cloud fraction in ZC (BF) simulation. It is seen that OLR in ZC simulation have great proximity with observation. ZC (BF) simulations depict low (high) OLR which indicates stronger (weaker) convection during ISM period. It implies strong (weak) convection having stronger (weaker) updrafts in ZC (BF). Relatively more (less) cloud condensate at upper level of ZC (BF) may produce strong (weak) latent heating which may lead to relatively strong (weak) convection during ISM. The interaction among microphysics

  3. Indian summer monsoon simulations with CFSv2: a microphysics perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Hazra, Anupam; Saha, Subodh K.; Dhakate, Ashish; Pokhrel, Samir

    2016-07-01

    The present study explores the impact of two different microphysical parameterization schemes (i.e. Zhao and Carr, Mon Wea Rev 125:1931-1953, 1997:called as ZC; Ferrier, Amer Meteor Soc 280-283, 2002: called as BF) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) on Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Critical relative humidity (RHcrit) plays a crucial role for the realistic cloud formation in a general circulation model (GCM). Hence, impact of RHcrit along with microphysical scheme on ISM is evaluated in the study. Model performance is evaluated in terms of simulation of rainfall, lower and upper tropospheric circulations, cloud fraction, cloud condensate and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Climatological mean features of rainfall are better represented by all the sensitivity experiments. Overall, ZC schemes show relatively better rainfall patterns as compared to BF schemes. BF schemes along with 95 % RHcrit (called as BF95) show excess precipitable water over Indian Ocean basin region, which seems to be unrealistic. Lower and upper tropospheric features are well simulated in all the sensitivity experiments; however, upper tropospheric wind patterns are underestimated as compared to observation. Spatial pattern and vertical profile of cloud condensate is relatively better represented by ZC schemes as compared to BF schemes. Relatively more (less) cloud condensate at upper level has lead to relatively better (low) high cloud fraction in ZC (BF) simulation. It is seen that OLR in ZC simulation have great proximity with observation. ZC (BF) simulations depict low (high) OLR which indicates stronger (weaker) convection during ISM period. It implies strong (weak) convection having stronger (weaker) updrafts in ZC (BF). Relatively more (less) cloud condensate at upper level of ZC (BF) may produce strong (weak) latent heating which may lead to relatively strong (weak) convection during ISM. The interaction among microphysics

  4. The Impact of Warm-Rain Microphysical Processes on Rain Rate and Polarimetric Observables at X-Band

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Xinxin; Evaristo, Raquel; Troemel, Silke; Simmer, Clemens

    2015-04-01

    Microphysical processes govern the evolution of drop size distribution (DSD) during the development of precipitating systems. Thus, an accurate knowledge on precipitating systems from a microphysical perspective is required for better quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE). Additionally, detection of microphysical processes in 3D polarimetric radar volumes paves the way for better parameterizations in numerical weather predictions (NWP). In this study, we focus on the impact of different microphysical processes on rain rate (RR) and polarimetric observables at X band. Microphysical processes during the evolution of warm-rain precipitating systems, including size sorting, evaporation, coalescence and breakup, are taken into account. Assuming that vertical rain shaft is composed of liquid spheroids distributed in a normalized Gamma size distribution, microphysical processes are reconstructed. The variation of RR governed by microphysical processes is also examined. Unique fingerprints caused by microphysical processes have been identified in polarimetric radar observations. For size sorting, large rain drops concentrating near ground surface or at leading edge induce strong Zdr (differential reflectivity) accompanied by small Zh (reflectivity). A larger mean size in DSD results in stronger Zdr during size sorting. The increasing mean size due to evaporation and coalescence enhances Zdr, while Zh during evaporation is reduced by the depletion of small rain drops. The reduction of Zh ranges between -10 dB and 0 dB considering different DSDs during evaporation. Zh, Zdr and Kdp (specific differential phase) all decrease when large rain drops break up. The evolution of DSD which depends on the ongoing microphysical processes results in a variation in RR. Though size sorting due to differential sedimentation occurs, RR approaches stable within 15 min. Suffering from vertical wind shear, RR is reduced because of the categorization of rain drops with different terminal

  5. Advance prediction of hypotension at cesarean delivery under spinal anesthesia.

    PubMed

    Kinsella, S M; Norris, M C

    1996-01-01

    Cardiovascular responses to supine inferior vena cava compression might predict hypotension risk during elective cesarean delivery using spinal anesthesia. In this pilot study we investigated 27 women before operation by taking blood pressure and heart rate measurements for 5 min in the left lateral position, 5 min supine, and then performed one further reading in the left lateral position and one sitting. Anesthesia with hyperbaric bupivacaine was rigorously standardised. A pre-operative 'supine stress test', combining an increase in maternal heart rate of greater than 10 beats/min or leg flexion movements while supine, was analysed. A positive supine stress test (SST) was 4.1 times more frequent in those with severe systolic hypotension below 70% of baseline (12 out of 16 women) than in those without (2 out of 11 women), with a sensitivity of 75% (95% C.I. 48% to 93%) and specificity of 82% (95% C.I. 48% to 98%). A positive test was associated with twice as much vasopressor use as a negative test (30.7 +/-/14.5 mg versus 13.5 +/-/ 9.9 mg; P = 0.0014). Unlike the SST, cardiovascular responses to the change from recumbent to sitting (tilt test) were not useful as a predictor of hypotension. PMID:15321375

  6. Cirrus Cloud Optical and Microphysical Property Measurements with Raman Lidar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demoz, B.; Wang, Z.; Whiteman, D.

    2006-12-01

    To improve our understanding of the impact of cirrus clouds on the current and future climate, improved knowledge of cirrus cloud optical and microphysical properties is needed. However, long-term studies of the problem indicate that accurate cirrus cloud measurements are challenging, especially in the low ice water content regime most frequent in the tropical cirrus layers. Recent advances in Raman lidar techniques have demonstrated that Raman lidar is an excellent tool to provide reliable cirrus cloud optical and microphysical properties, which are important to study cirrus clouds as well as to validate satellite cirrus cloud measurements. Based on elastic and nitrogen Raman signals, cirrus cloud optical depth and extinction to backscatter ratio can be quantified. By utilizing the Raman scattered intensities from ice crystals, a new method to remotely sense cirrus ice water content and general effective radius profiles has been demonstrated with NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) measurements. Since the intensity of Raman scattering is fundamentally proportional to the number of molecules involved, this method provides a more direct way of measuring the ice water content compared with other schemes. Based on the SRL measurements, these Raman lidar capabilities will be illustrated.

  7. A New Optical Disdrometer for Monitoring Precipitation Microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Testik, F. Y.; Rahman, M. K.

    2014-12-01

    A new optical-type disdrometer called High-speed Optical Disdrometer (HOD) was developed to observe rainfall microphysical quantities such as raindrop size distribution, shape, fall velocity, and canting. The main components of the HOD are a high-speed video camera, an LED light, and a sensor unit. The camera points to the LED light and captures the silhouettes of the backlit drops that fall in between the camera and the light. When a raindrop is detected, the sensor unit triggers the camera to record sequential raindrop images of up to 1000 frames per second. The captured raindrop images are then digitally processed using a computer software developed to determine the raindrop characteristics. The capabilities of the HOD were evaluated both in the laboratory using high-precision spherical lenses and water drops of known sizes and in the field during rainfall events. These tests showed that the overall performance and measurement accuracy of the HOD were satisfactory. The quality and sequential nature of raindrop images collected during field tests demonstrated the advanced observational capabilities of the HOD, indicating its high potential to become an indispensible instrument for monitoring precipitation microphysics.

  8. Stratospheric Heterogeneous Chemistry and Microphysics: Model Development, Validation and Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turco, Richard P.

    1996-01-01

    being systematically evaluated to identify the principal relationships between ozone loss and aerosol state. Under this project, we formulated a detailed quantitative model that predicts the multicomponent composition of sulfate aerosols under stratospheric conditions, including sulfuric, nitric, hydrochloric, hydrofluoric and hydrobromic acids. This work defined for the first time the behavior of liquid ternary-system type-1b PSCS. The model also allows the compositions and reactivities of sulfate aerosols to be calculated over the entire range of environmental conditions encountered in the stratosphere (and has been incorporated into a trajectory/microphysics model-see above). Important conclusions that derived from this work over the last few years include the following: the HNO3 content of liquid-state aerosols dominate PSCs below about 195 K; the freezing of nitric acid ice from sulfate aerosol solutions is likely to occur within a few degrees K of the water vapor frost point; the uptake and reactions of HCl in liquid aerosols is a critical component of PSC heterogeneous chemistry. In a related application of this work, the inefficiency of chlorine injection into the stratosphere during major volcanic eruptions was explained on the basis of nucleation of sulfuric acid aerosols in rising volcanic plumes leading to the formation of supercooled water droplets on these aerosols, which efficiently scavenges HCl via precipitation.

  9. A Microphysics Guide to Cirrus Clouds - Part I: Cirrus Types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krämer, Martina; Rolf, Christian; Anna, Luebke; Armin, Afchine; Nicole, Spelten; Anja, Costa; Jessica, Meyer; Martin, Zöger; Jessica, Smith; Robert, Herman; Bernhard, Buchholz; Volker, Ebert; Darrel, Baumgardner; Stephan, Borrmann; Marcus, Klingebiel; Linnea, Avallone

    2016-04-01

    The microphysical and radiative properties of cirrus clouds continue to be beyond understanding and thus still represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of the Earth's climate (IPCC, 2013). Our study provides a guide to cirrus microphysics, which is compiled from an extensive set of model simulations, covering the broad range of atmospheric conditions for cirrus formation and evolution (Krämer et al., 2015, ACPD). The model results are portrayed in the same parameter space as field measurements, i.e. in the Ice Water Content-Temperature (IWC-T) parameter space. We validate this cirrus analysis approach by evaluating cirrus data sets from seventeen aircraft campaigns, conducted in the last fifteen years, spending about 94 h in cirrus over Europe, Australia, Brazil as well as Southern and Northern America. Altogether, the approach of this study is to track cirrus IWC development with temperature by means of model simulations, compare with observations and then assign, to a certain degree, cirrus microphysics to the observations. Indeed, the field observations show characteristics expected from the simulated cirrus guide. For example, high/low IWCs are found together with high/low ice crystal concentrations. An important finding from our study is the classification of two types of cirrus with differing formation mechanisms and microphysical properties: the first cirrus type is rather thin with lower IWCs and forms directly as ice (in-situ origin cirrus). The second type consists predominantly of thick cirrus originating from mixed phase clouds (i.e. via freezing of liquid droplets - liquid origin cirrus), which are completely glaciated while lifting to the cirrus formation temperature region (< 235 K). In the European field campaigns, in-situ origin cirrus occur frequently at slow updrafts in low and high pressure systems, but also in conjunction with faster updrafts. Also, liquid origin cirrus mostly related to warm conveyor belts are found. In

  10. A microphysics guide to cirrus clouds - Part 1: Cirrus types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krämer, Martina; Rolf, Christian; Luebke, Anna; Afchine, Armin; Spelten, Nicole; Costa, Anja; Meyer, Jessica; Zöger, Martin; Smith, Jessica; Herman, Robert L.; Buchholz, Bernhard; Ebert, Volker; Baumgardner, Darrel; Borrmann, Stephan; Klingebiel, Marcus; Avallone, Linnea

    2016-03-01

    The microphysical and radiative properties of cirrus clouds continue to be beyond understanding and thus still represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of the Earth's climate (IPCC, 2013). Our study aims to provide a guide to cirrus microphysics, which is compiled from an extensive set of model simulations, covering the broad range of atmospheric conditions for cirrus formation and evolution. The model results are portrayed in the same parameter space as field measurements, i.e., in the Ice Water Content-Temperature (IWC-T) parameter space. We validate this cirrus analysis approach by evaluating cirrus data sets from 17 aircraft campaigns, conducted in the last 15 years, spending about 94 h in cirrus over Europe, Australia, Brazil as well as South and North America. Altogether, the approach of this study is to track cirrus IWC development with temperature by means of model simulations, compare with observations and then assign, to a certain degree, cirrus microphysics to the observations. Indeed, the field observations show characteristics expected from the simulated Cirrus Guide. For example, high (low) IWCs are found together with high (low) ice crystal concentrations Nice. An important finding from our study is the classification of two types of cirrus with differing formation mechanisms and microphysical properties: the first cirrus type forms directly as ice (in situ origin cirrus) and splits in two subclasses, depending on the prevailing strength of the updraft: in slow updrafts these cirrus are rather thin with lower IWCs, while in fast updrafts thicker cirrus with higher IWCs can form. The second type consists predominantly of thick cirrus originating from mixed phase clouds (i.e., via freezing of liquid droplets - liquid origin cirrus), which are completely glaciated while lifting to the cirrus formation temperature region (< 235 K). In the European field campaigns, slow updraft in situ origin cirrus occur frequently in low- and high

  11. Depolarization Lidar Determination Of Cloud-Base Microphysical Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donovan, D. P.; Klein Baltink, H.; Henzing, J. S.; de Roode, S.; Siebesma, A. P.

    2016-06-01

    The links between multiple-scattering induced depolarization and cloud microphysical properties (e.g. cloud particle number density, effective radius, water content) have long been recognised. Previous efforts to use depolarization information in a quantitative manner to retrieve cloud microphysical cloud properties have also been undertaken but with limited scope and, arguably, success. In this work we present a retrieval procedure applicable to liquid stratus clouds with (quasi-)linear LWC profiles and (quasi-)constant number density profiles in the cloud-base region. This set of assumptions allows us to employ a fast and robust inversion procedure based on a lookup-table approach applied to extensive lidar Monte-Carlo multiple-scattering calculations. An example validation case is presented where the results of the inversion procedure are compared with simultaneous cloud radar observations. In non-drizzling conditions it was found, in general, that the lidar- only inversion results can be used to predict the radar reflectivity within the radar calibration uncertainty (2-3 dBZ). Results of a comparison between ground-based aerosol number concentration and lidar-derived cloud base number considerations are also presented. The observed relationship between the two quantities is seen to be consistent with the results of previous studies based on aircraft-based in situ measurements.

  12. Microphysical characteristics of Canadian Atlantic storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaac, G. A.

    During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP) field project conducted from 15 January to 15 March 1986, microphysical measurements were made using two instrumented aircraft: a Twin Otter and a DC-3. Measurements tended to be made over Nova Scotia and on the northern side of the low pressure centre. For 90% of the time in cloud, the aircraft were at temperatures between 0 and -12°C. Cloud droplet concentrations varied from low values to greater than 700 cm -3 with median values between 50 and 100 cm -3. Ice crystals were usually present during cloud penetrations and high concentrations occasionally occurred with higher than normal liquid water contents. Precipitation formation was through an ice crystal aggregation process. Severe icing conditions occurred on a few occasions for both aircraft, and the microphysical character of these clouds have been documented.

  13. Microphysical Processes Affecting the Pinatubo Volcanic Plume

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamill, Patrick; Houben, Howard; Young, Richard; Turco, Richard; Zhao, Jingxia

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we consider microphysical processes which affect the formation of sulfate particles and their size distribution in a dispersing cloud. A model for the dispersion of the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cloud is described. We then consider a single point in the dispersing cloud and study the effects of nucleation, condensation and coagulation on the time evolution of the particle size distribution at that point.

  14. Sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone size to microphysics schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, Kelvin T. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

    2016-09-01

    The sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) size to microphysics schemes is studied using the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Six TCs during the 2013 western North Pacific typhoon season and three mainstream microphysics schemes-Ferrier (FER), WRF Single-Moment 5-class (WSM5) and WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6)-are investigated. The results consistently show that the simulated TC track is not sensitive to the choice of microphysics scheme in the early simulation, especially in the open ocean. However, the sensitivity is much greater for TC intensity and inner-core size. The TC intensity and size simulated using the WSM5 and WSM6 schemes are respectively higher and larger than those using the FER scheme in general, which likely results from more diabatic heating being generated outside the eyewall in rainbands. More diabatic heating in rainbands gives higher inflow in the lower troposphere and higher outflow in the upper troposphere, with higher upward motion outside the eyewall. The lower-tropospheric inflow would transport absolute angular momentum inward to spin up tangential wind predominantly near the eyewall, leading to the increment in TC intensity and size (the inner-core size, especially). In addition, the inclusion of graupel microphysics processes (as in WSM6) may not have a significant impact on the simulation of TC track, intensity and size.

  15. Prediction models for platinum-based chemotherapy response and toxicity in advanced NSCLC patients.

    PubMed

    Yin, Ji-Ye; Li, Xi; Li, Xiang-Ping; Xiao, Ling; Zheng, Wei; Chen, Juan; Mao, Chen-Xue; Fang, Chao; Cui, Jia-Jia; Guo, Cheng-Xian; Zhang, Wei; Gao, Yang; Zhang, Chun-Fang; Chen, Zi-Hua; Zhou, Hui; Zhou, Hong-Hao; Liu, Zhao-Qian

    2016-07-10

    In this study, we aimed to establish a platinum-based chemotherapy response and toxicity prediction model in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. 416 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 185 genes were genotyped, and their association with drug response and toxicity were estimated using logistic regression. Nine data mining techniques were employed to establish the prediction model; the sensitivity, specificity, overall accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to assess the models' performance. Finally, selected models were validated in an independent cohort. The models established by naïve Bayesian algorithm had the best performance. The response prediction model achieved a sensitivity of 0.90 and a specificity of 0.47 with the ROC area under curve (AUC) of 0.80. The overall toxicity prediction model achieved a sensitivity of 0.86 and a specificity of 0.46 with the ROC AUC of 0.73. The hematological toxicity prediction model achieved a sensitivity of 0.89 and a specificity of 0.39 with the ROC AUC of 0.76. The gastrointestinal toxicity prediction model achieved a sensitivity of 0.93 and a specificity of 0.35 with the ROC AUC of 0.80. In conclusion, we provided platinum-based chemotherapy response and toxicity prediction models for advanced NSCLC patients. PMID:27126360

  16. Evaluation of Model Microphysics within Precipitation Bands of Extratropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colle, Brian A.; Yu, Ruyi; Molthan, Andrew L.; Nesbitt, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies evaluating the bulk microphysical schemes (BMPs) within cloud resolving models (CRMs) have indicated large uncertainties and errors in the amount and size distributions of snow and cloud ice aloft. The snow prediction is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33-km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Coldseason Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment, as well as a few years (15 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku-band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. A Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometer was also used to measure the surface size distribution and fall speeds of snow at SBNY. For the 15 cases at SBNY, the WSM6, Morrison (MORR), Thompson (THOM2), and Stony Brook (SBU-YLIN) BMPs were validated. A non-spherical snow assumption (THOM2 and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic distribution of reflectivity than spherical snow assumptions in the WSM6 and MORR schemes. The MORR, WSM6, and SBU-YLIN schemes are comparable to the observed velocity distribution in light and moderate riming periods. The THOM2 is approx 0.25 m/s too slow with its velocity distribution in these periods. In heavier riming, the vertical Doppler velocities in the WSM6, THOM2, and MORR schemes were approx 0.25 m/s too slow, while the

  17. Evaluation of Model Microphysics Within Precipitation Bands of Extratropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colle, Brian A.; Molthan, Andrew; Yu, Ruyi; Stark, David; Yuter, Sandra; Nesbitt, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies evaluating the bulk microphysical schemes (BMPs) within cloud resolving models (CRMs) have indicated large uncertainties and errors in the amount and size distributions of snow and cloud ice aloft. The snow prediction is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33-km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Coldseason Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment, as well as a few years (15 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku-band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. A Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometer was also used to measure the surface size distribution and fall speeds of snow at SBNY. For the 15 cases at SBNY, the WSM6, Morrison (MORR), Thompson (THOM2), and Stony Brook (SBU-YLIN) BMPs were validated. A non-spherical snow assumption (THOM2 and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic distribution of reflectivity than spherical snow assumptions in the WSM6 and MORR schemes. The MORR, WSM6, and SBU-YLIN schemes are comparable to the observed velocity distribution in light and moderate riming periods. The THOM2 is 0.25 meters per second too slow with its velocity distribution in these periods. In heavier riming, the vertical Doppler velocities in the WSM6, THOM2, and MORR schemes were 0.25 meters per second too

  18. TASI/PiTP/ISS Lectures on Moduli and Microphysics

    SciTech Connect

    Silverstein, E

    2004-05-10

    I review basic forces on moduli that lead to their stabilization, for example in the supercritical and KKLT models of de Sitter space in string theory, as well as an AdS{sub 4} x S{sup 3} x S{sup 3} model I include which is not published elsewhere. These forces come from the classical dilaton tadpole in generic dimensionality, internal curvature, fluxes, and branes and orientifolds as well as non-perturbative effects. The resulting (A)dS solutions of string theory make detailed predictions for microphysical entropy, whose leading behavior we exhibit on the Coulomb branch of the system. Finally, I briefly review recent developments concerning the role of velocity-dependent effects in the dynamics of moduli. These lecture notes are based on material presented at various stages in the 1999 TASI, 2002 PiTP, 2003 TASI, and 2003 ISS schools.

  19. Chemistry and microphysics of polar stratospheric clouds and cirrus clouds.

    PubMed

    Zondlo, M A; Hudson, P K; Prenni, A J; Tolbert, M A

    2000-01-01

    Ice particles found within polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and upper tropospheric cirrus clouds can dramatically impact the chemistry and climate of the Earth's atmosphere. The formation of PSCs and the subsequent chemical reactions that occur on their surfaces are key components of the massive ozone hole observed each spring over Antarctica. Cirrus clouds also provide surfaces for heterogeneous reactions and significantly modify the Earth's climate by changing the visible and infrared radiation fluxes. Although the role of ice particles in climate and chemistry is well recognized, the exact mechanisms of cloud formation are still unknown, and thus it is difficult to predict how anthropogenic activities will change cloud abundances in the future. This article focuses on the nucleation, chemistry, and microphysical properties of ice particles composing PSCs and cirrus clouds. A general overview of the current state of research is presented along with some unresolved issues facing scientists in the future. PMID:11031290

  20. Compute unified device architecture (CUDA)-based parallelization of WRF Kessler cloud microphysics scheme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mielikainen, Jarno; Huang, Bormin; Wang, Jun; Allen Huang, H.-L.; Goldberg, Mitchell D.

    2013-03-01

    In recent years, graphics processing units (GPUs) have emerged as a low-cost, low-power and a very high performance alternative to conventional central processing units (CPUs). The latest GPUs offer a speedup of two-to-three orders of magnitude over CPU for various science and engineering applications. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the latest-generation numerical weather prediction model. It has been designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs. It proves useful for a broad spectrum of applications for domain scales ranging from meters to hundreds of kilometers. WRF computes an approximate solution to the differential equations which govern the air motion of the whole atmosphere. Kessler microphysics module in WRF is a simple warm cloud scheme that includes water vapor, cloud water and rain. Microphysics processes which are modeled are rain production, fall and evaporation. The accretion and auto-conversion of cloud water processes are also included along with the production of cloud water from condensation. In this paper, we develop an efficient WRF Kessler microphysics scheme which runs on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) using the NVIDIA Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA). The GPU-based implementation of Kessler microphysics scheme achieves a significant speedup of 70× over its CPU based single-threaded counterpart. When a 4 GPU system is used, we achieve an overall speedup of 132× as compared to the single thread CPU version.

  1. Urinary π-glutathione S-transferase Predicts Advanced Acute Kidney Injury Following Cardiovascular Surgery.

    PubMed

    Shu, Kai-Hsiang; Wang, Chih-Hsien; Wu, Che-Hsiung; Huang, Tao-Min; Wu, Pei-Chen; Lai, Chien-Heng; Tseng, Li-Jung; Tsai, Pi-Ru; Connolly, Rory; Wu, Vin-Cent

    2016-01-01

    Urinary biomarkers augment the diagnosis of acute kidney injury (AKI), with AKI after cardiovascular surgeries being a prototype of prognosis scenario. Glutathione S-transferases (GST) were evaluated as biomarkers of AKI. Urine samples were collected in 141 cardiovascular surgical patients and analyzed for urinary alpha-(α-) and pi-(π-) GSTs. The outcomes of advanced AKI (KDIGO stage 2, 3) and all-cause in-patient mortality, as composite outcome, were recorded. Areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and multivariate generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to predict outcomes. Thirty-eight (26.9%) patients had AKI, while 12 (8.5%) were with advanced AKI. Urinary π-GST differentiated patients with/without advanced AKI or composite outcome after surgery (p < 0.05 by generalized estimating equation). Urinary π-GST predicted advanced AKI at 3 hrs post-surgery (p = 0.033) and composite outcome (p = 0.009), while the corresponding ROC curve had AUC of 0.784 and 0.783. Using GAM, the cutoff value of 14.7 μg/L for π-GST showed the best performance to predict composite outcome. The addition of π-GST to the SOFA score improved risk stratification (total net reclassification index = 0.47). Thus, urinary π-GST levels predict advanced AKI or hospital mortality after cardiovascular surgery and improve in SOFA outcome assessment specific to AKI. PMID:27527370

  2. Urinary π-glutathione S-transferase Predicts Advanced Acute Kidney Injury Following Cardiovascular Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Shu, Kai-Hsiang; Wang, Chih-Hsien; Wu, Che-Hsiung; Huang, Tao-Min; Wu, Pei-Chen; Lai, Chien-Heng; Tseng, Li-Jung; Tsai, Pi-Ru; Connolly, Rory; Wu, Vin-Cent

    2016-01-01

    Urinary biomarkers augment the diagnosis of acute kidney injury (AKI), with AKI after cardiovascular surgeries being a prototype of prognosis scenario. Glutathione S-transferases (GST) were evaluated as biomarkers of AKI. Urine samples were collected in 141 cardiovascular surgical patients and analyzed for urinary alpha-(α-) and pi-(π-) GSTs. The outcomes of advanced AKI (KDIGO stage 2, 3) and all-cause in-patient mortality, as composite outcome, were recorded. Areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and multivariate generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to predict outcomes. Thirty-eight (26.9%) patients had AKI, while 12 (8.5%) were with advanced AKI. Urinary π-GST differentiated patients with/without advanced AKI or composite outcome after surgery (p < 0.05 by generalized estimating equation). Urinary π-GST predicted advanced AKI at 3 hrs post-surgery (p = 0.033) and composite outcome (p = 0.009), while the corresponding ROC curve had AUC of 0.784 and 0.783. Using GAM, the cutoff value of 14.7 μg/L for π-GST showed the best performance to predict composite outcome. The addition of π-GST to the SOFA score improved risk stratification (total net reclassification index = 0.47). Thus, urinary π-GST levels predict advanced AKI or hospital mortality after cardiovascular surgery and improve in SOFA outcome assessment specific to AKI. PMID:27527370

  3. Advancing monthly streamflow prediction accuracy of CART models using ensemble learning paradigms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdal, Halil Ibrahim; Karakurt, Onur

    2013-01-01

    SummaryStreamflow forecasting is one of the most important steps in the water resources planning and management. Ensemble techniques such as bagging, boosting and stacking have gained popularity in hydrological forecasting in the recent years. The study investigates the potential usage of two ensemble learning paradigms (i.e., bagging; stochastic gradient boosting) in building classification and regression trees (CARTs) ensembles to advance the streamflow prediction accuracy. The study, initially, investigates the use of classification and regression trees for monthly streamflow forecasting and employs a support vector regression (SVR) model as the benchmark model. The analytic results indicate that CART outperforms SVR in both training and testing phases. Although the obtained results of CART model in training phase are considerable, it is not in testing phase. Thus, to optimize the prediction accuracy of CART for monthly streamflow forecasting, we incorporate bagging and stochastic gradient boosting which are rooted in same philosophy, advancing the prediction accuracy of weak learners. Comparing with the results of bagged regression trees (BRTs) and stochastic gradient boosted regression trees (GBRTs) models possess satisfactory monthly streamflow forecasting performance than CART and SVR models. Overall, it is found that ensemble learning paradigms can remarkably advance the prediction accuracy of CART models in monthly streamflow forecasting.

  4. Numerical Analysis Using WRF-SBM for the Cloud Microphysical Structures in the C3VP Field Campaign: Impacts of Supercooled Droplets and Resultant Riming on Snow Microphysics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iguchi, Takamichi; Matsui, Toshihisa; Shi, Jainn J.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Khain, Alexander P.; Hao, Arthur; Cifelli, Robert; Heymsfield, Andrew; Tokay, Ali

    2012-01-01

    Two distinct snowfall events are observed over the region near the Great Lakes during 19-23 January 2007 under the intensive measurement campaign of the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO validation project (C3VP). These events are numerically investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) scheme that allows a smooth calculation of riming process by predicting the rimed mass fraction on snow aggregates. The fundamental structures of the observed two snowfall systems are distinctly characterized by a localized intense lake-effect snowstorm in one case and a widely distributed moderate snowfall by the synoptic-scale system in another case. Furthermore, the observed microphysical structures are distinguished by differences in bulk density of solid-phase particles, which are probably linked to the presence or absence of supercooled droplets. The WRF-SBM coupled with Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit (G-SDSU) has successfully simulated these distinctive structures in the three-dimensional weather prediction run with a horizontal resolution of 1 km. In particular, riming on snow aggregates by supercooled droplets is considered to be of importance in reproducing the specialized microphysical structures in the case studies. Additional sensitivity tests for the lake-effect snowstorm case are conducted utilizing different planetary boundary layer (PBL) models or the same SBM but without the riming process. The PBL process has a large impact on determining the cloud microphysical structure of the lake-effect snowstorm as well as the surface precipitation pattern, whereas the riming process has little influence on the surface precipitation because of the small height of the system.

  5. Advancing Satellite-Based Flood Prediction in Complex Terrain Using High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Bartsotas, N. S.

    2015-12-01

    Floods constitute one of the most significant and frequent natural hazard in mountainous regions. Satellite-based precipitation products offer in many cases the only available source of QPE. However, satellite-based QPE over complex terrain suffer from significant bias that limits their applicability for hydrologic modeling. In this work we investigate the potential of a new correction procedure, which involves the use of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model simulations to adjust satellite QPE. Adjustment is based on the pdf matching of satellite and NWP (used as reference) precipitation distribution. The impact of correction procedure on simulating the hydrologic response is examined for 15 storm events that generated floods over the mountainous Upper Adige region of Northern Italy. Atmospheric simulations were performed at 1-km resolution from a state-of-the-art atmospheric model (RAMS/ICLAMS). The proposed error correction procedure was then applied on the widely used TRMM 3B42 satellite precipitation product and the evaluation of the correction was based on independent in situ precipitation measurements from a dense rain gauge network (1 gauge / 70 km2) available in the study area. Satellite QPE, before and after correction, are used to simulate flood response using ARFFS (Adige River Flood Forecasting System), a semi-distributed hydrologic model, which is used for operational flood forecasting in the region. Results showed that bias in satellite QPE before correction was significant and had a tremendous impact on the simulation of flood peak, however the correction procedure was able to reduce bias in QPE and therefore improve considerably the simulated flood hydrograph.

  6. A new single-moment microphysics scheme for cloud-resolving models using observed dependence of ice concentration on temperature.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khairoutdinov, M.

    2015-12-01

    The representation of microphysics, especially ice microphysics, remains one of the major uncertainties in cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Most of the cloud schemes use the so-called bulk microphysics approach, in which a few moments of such distributions are used as the prognostic variables. The System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) is the CRM that employs two such schemes. The single-moment scheme, which uses only mass for each of the water phases, and the two-moment scheme, which adds the particle concentration for each of the hydrometeor category. Of the two, the single-moment scheme is much more computationally efficient as it uses only two prognostic microphysics variables compared to ten variables used by the two-moment scheme. The efficiency comes from a rather considerable oversimplification of the microphysical processes. For instance, only a sum of the liquid and icy cloud water is predicted with the temperature used to diagnose the mixing ratios of different hydrometeors. The main motivation for using such simplified microphysics has been computational efficiency, especially in the applications of SAM as the super-parameterization in global climate models. Recently, we have extended the single-moment microphysics by adding only one additional prognostic variable, which has, nevertheless, allowed us to separate the cloud ice from liquid water. We made use of some of the recent observations of ice microphysics collected at various parts of the world to parameterize several aspects of ice microphysics that have not been explicitly represented before in our sing-moment scheme. For example, we use the observed broad dependence of ice concentration on temperature to diagnose the ice concentration in addition to prognostic mass. Also, there is no artificial separation between the pristine ice and snow, often used by bulk models. Instead we prescribed the ice size spectrum as the gamma distribution, with the distribution shape parameter controlled by the

  7. Prognostication of Survival in Patients With Advanced Cancer: Predicting the Unpredictable?

    PubMed Central

    Hui, David

    2016-01-01

    Background Prognosis is a key driver of clinical decision-making. However, available prognostication tools have limited accuracy and variable levels of validation. Methods Principles of survival prediction and literature on clinician prediction of survival, prognostic factors, and prognostic models were reviewed, with a focus on patients with advanced cancer and a survival rate of a few months or less. Results The 4 principles of survival prediction are (a) prognostication is a process instead of an event, (b) prognostic factors may evolve over the course of the disease, (c) prognostic accuracy for a given prognostic factor/tool varies by the definition of accuracy, the patient population, and the time frame of prediction, and (d) the exact timing of death cannot be predicted with certainty. Clinician prediction of survival rate is the most commonly used approach to formulate prognosis. However, clinicians often overestimate survival rates with the temporal question. Other clinician prediction of survival approaches, such as surprise and probabilistic questions, have higher rates of accuracy. Established prognostic factors in the advanced cancer setting include decreased performance status, delirium, dysphagia, cancer anorexia–cachexia, dyspnea, inflammation, and malnutrition. Novel prognostic factors, such as phase angle, may improve rates of accuracy. Many prognostic models are available, including the Palliative Prognostic Score, the Palliative Prognostic Index, and the Glasgow Prognostic Score. Conclusions Despite the uncertainty in survival prediction, existing prognostic tools can facilitate clinical decision-making by providing approximated time frames (months, weeks, or days). Future research should focus on clarifying and comparing the rates of accuracy for existing prognostic tools, identifying and validating novel prognostic factors, and linking prognostication to decision-making. PMID:26678976

  8. Analysis of Cirrus Cloud Microphysical Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poellot, Michael R.; Grainger, Cedric A.

    1999-01-01

    The First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Regional Experiment (FIRE) program has the goal of improving our capabilities to understand, model and detect the properties of climatically-important clouds. This is being undertaken through a three-pronged effort of modeling, long-term observations and short-term intensive field studies. Through examination of satellite and other data it is apparent that stratus and cirrus cloud types have the greatest impact on climate due to their radiative effects and ubiquitous nature. As a result, the FIRE program has developed two paths of investigation, each having its own subset of research objectives and measurement programs. The work conducted under this grant was directed toward furthering our understanding of cirrus cloud systems. While it is known that cirrus are climatically important, the magnitude and even sign of the impact is unclear. Cirrus clouds affect the transfer of radiation according to their physical depth and location in the atmosphere and their microphysical composition. However, significant uncertainties still exist in how cirrus clouds form and how they are maintained, what their physical properties are and how they can be parameterized in numerical models. Better remote sensing techniques for monitoring cirrus cloud systems and improved modeling of radiative transfer through ice particles are also needed. A critical element in resolving these issues is a better understanding of cirrus cloud microphysical properties and how they vary. The focus of the research to be conducted under this grant was th data collected in situ by the University of North Dakota Citation aircraft. The goals of this research were to add to the body of knowledge of cirrus cloud microphysics, particularly at the small end of the size spectrum; and analyze the spatial variation of cirrus clouds.

  9. Development of advanced structural analysis methodologies for predicting widespread fatigue damage in aircraft structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Charles E.; Starnes, James H., Jr.; Newman, James C., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    NASA is developing a 'tool box' that includes a number of advanced structural analysis computer codes which, taken together, represent the comprehensive fracture mechanics capability required to predict the onset of widespread fatigue damage. These structural analysis tools have complementary and specialized capabilities ranging from a finite-element-based stress-analysis code for two- and three-dimensional built-up structures with cracks to a fatigue and fracture analysis code that uses stress-intensity factors and material-property data found in 'look-up' tables or from equations. NASA is conducting critical experiments necessary to verify the predictive capabilities of the codes, and these tests represent a first step in the technology-validation and industry-acceptance processes. NASA has established cooperative programs with aircraft manufacturers to facilitate the comprehensive transfer of this technology by making these advanced structural analysis codes available to industry.

  10. Computational methods in the prediction of advanced subsonic and supersonic propeller induced noise: ASSPIN users' manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunn, M. H.; Tarkenton, G. M.

    1992-01-01

    This document describes the computational aspects of propeller noise prediction in the time domain and the use of high speed propeller noise prediction program ASSPIN (Advanced Subsonic and Supersonic Propeller Induced Noise). These formulations are valid in both the near and far fields. Two formulations are utilized by ASSPIN: (1) one is used for subsonic portions of the propeller blade; and (2) the second is used for transonic and supersonic regions on the blade. Switching between the two formulations is done automatically. ASSPIN incorporates advanced blade geometry and surface pressure modelling, adaptive observer time grid strategies, and contains enhanced numerical algorithms that result in reduced computational time. In addition, the ability to treat the nonaxial inflow case has been included.

  11. Studying Precipitation Processes in WRF with Goddard Bulk Microphysics in Comparison with Other Microphysical Schemes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, W.K.; Shi, J.J.; Braun, S.; Simpson, J.; Chen, S.S.; Lang, S.; Hong, S.Y.; Thompson, G.; Peters-Lidard, C.

    2009-01-01

    A Goddard bulk microphysical parameterization is implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This bulk microphysical scheme has three different options, 2ICE (cloud ice & snow), 3ICE-graupel (cloud ice, snow & graupel) and 3ICE-hail (cloud ice, snow & hail). High-resolution model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of microphysical schemes on different weather events: a midlatitude linear convective system and an Atlantic hurricane. The results suggest that microphysics has a major impact on the organization and precipitation processes associated with a summer midlatitude convective line system. The Goddard 3ICE scheme with the cloud ice-snow-hail configuration agreed better with observations ill of rainfall intensity and having a narrow convective line than did simulations with the cloud ice-snow-graupel and cloud ice-snow (i.e., 2ICE) configurations. This is because the Goddard 3ICE-hail configuration has denser precipitating ice particles (hail) with very fast fall speeds (over 10 m/s) For an Atlantic hurricane case, the Goddard microphysical scheme (with 3ICE-hail, 3ICE-graupel and 2ICE configurations) had no significant impact on the track forecast but did affect the intensity slightly. The Goddard scheme is also compared with WRF's three other 3ICE bulk microphysical schemes: WSM6, Purdue-Lin and Thompson. For the summer midlatitude convective line system, all of the schemes resulted in simulated precipitation events that were elongated in southwest-northeast direction in qualitative agreement with the observed feature. However, the Goddard 3ICE-hail and Thompson schemes were closest to the observed rainfall intensities although the Goddard scheme simulated more heavy rainfall (over 48 mm/h). For the Atlantic hurricane case, none of the schemes had a significant impact on the track forecast; however, the simulated intensity using the Purdue-Lin scheme was much stronger than the other schemes. The vertical distributions of

  12. Microphysical Model Studies of Venus Clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meade, P. E.; Bullock, M. A.; Grinspoon, D. H.

    2004-11-01

    We have adapted a standard cloud microphysics model to construct a self-consistent microphysical model of Venus' cloud layer which reproduces and extends previous studies (e.g. James et al. 1997). Our model is based on the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model Atmosphere (CARMA), which is a widely used computer code for terrestrial cloud microphysics, derived from the work of Toon et al. (1988). The standard code has been adapted to treat H2O and H2SO4 as co-condensing vapor species onto aqueous H2SO4 cloud droplets, as well as the nucleation of condensation nuclei to droplets. Vapor condensation and evaporation follows the method of James et al. (1997). Microphysical processes included in this model include nucleation of condensation nuclei, condensation and evaporation of H2O and H2SO4 vapor, and droplet coagulation. Vertical transport occurs though advection, eddy diffusion, sedimentation for both droplets and condensation nuclei. The cloud model is used to explore the sensitivity of Venus' cloud layer to environmental changes. Observations of the Venus' lower cloud from the Pioneer Venus, Venera, and Galileo spacecraft have suggested that the properties of the lower cloud may be time-variable, and at times may be entirely absent (Carlson et al. 1993, Grinspoon et al. 1993, Esposito et al. 1997). Our model explores the dependence of such behavior on environment factors such as variations in water or SO2 abundance. We have also calculated the optical properties of the model atmosphere using both the conventional optical constants for H2SO4 (Palmer and Williams, 1975), and the new data of Tisdale et al. (1998). This work has been supported by NASA's Exobiology Program. References Carlson, R.W., et al., 1993. Planetary and Space Science, 41, 477-486. Esposito, L.W., et al., 1997. In Venus II, eds. S.W. Bougher et al., pp. 415-458, University of Arizona Press, Tucson. Grinspoon, D.H., et al., 1993. Planetary and Space Science, 41 (July 1993), 515-542. James, E. P

  13. An integrated theory for predicting the hydrothermomechanical response of advanced composite structural components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, C. C.; Lark, R. F.; Sinclair, J. H.

    1977-01-01

    A theory is developed for predicting the hydrothermomechanical response of advanced composite structural components. The combined hydrothermal effects on the mechanical properties of unidirectional composites loaded along the material axis and off-axis, and of angleplied laminates are also evaluated. The materials investigated consist of neat PR-288 epoxy matrix resin and an AS-type graphite fiber/PR-288 resin unidirectional composite.

  14. Development of a global aerosol microphysics model driven by assimilated meteorology and evaluation against field campaign data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trivitayanurak, Win

    We implement the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics model into the GEOS-Chem CTM that is driven by assimilated meteorology. TOMAS has 30 size sections covering 0.01 --- 10 mum diameter with conservation equation for both aerosol mass and number. The implementation enables GEOS-Chem to simulate aerosol microphysics, size distributions, mass and number concentrations. In the first stage of development, sulfate and sea-salt aerosol model results from GEOS-Chem with TOMAS are intercompared with global models with sectional microphysics: GISS GCM-II' and GLOMAP. Predictions of CN10 and CCN(0.2%) by all models agree well within a factor of two in the boundary layer but differ more at altitudes. Comparison with marine boundary layer observations of CN10 and CCN(0.2%) shows that all models perform well with average errors of 30 -- 50%. Differences among models stress the need for updated emission inventories and accurate meteorology and oxidant fields. The second stage encompasses implementation of carbonaceous aerosols, including organic mass (OM), elemental carbon (EC), and secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Sensitivity of CCN prediction to the uncertain POA-SOA contribution to the total OA budget is examined by artificially shifting OA sources from POA emission to SOA production rate. The different microphysical pathways of POA and SOA resulting in decreased CCN(0.2%) everywhere as the model changes from POA to SOA because SOA condenses onto mostly accumulation mode. POA is twice as effective per unit mass compared to SOA at CCN production at the model surface. Completely changing from POA to SOA results in 20% CCN(0.2%) reduction at the surface as well as globally. The fully developed TOMAS aerosol microphysics model with sulfate, sea-salt, OM, EC, and dust is evaluated against observations from ACE-Asia field campaign. This is the first highly time-resolved aerosol microphysics evaluation. The Napari et al. (2002) ternary nucleation captures PBL

  15. NOAA Drought Task Force: A Coordinated Research Initiative to Advance Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariotti, A.; Barrie, D.

    2014-12-01

    The NOAA's Drought Task Force was first established in October 2011 and renewed in October 2014 with the goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor and predict drought over North America. The Task Force is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in support of the National Integrated Drought Information System NIDIS. The Drought Task Force also represents an important research contribution to efforts to develop an international Global Drought Information System (GDIS). The Drought Task Force brings together leading drought scientists research laboratories and/or operational centers from NOAA, other U.S. agencies laboratories and academia. Their concerted research effort builds on individual MAPP research projects and related drought-research sector developments. The projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those evaluating new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes. This contribution will present an overview of Drought Task Force activities and plans to date, including highlights of research activities and how the group has been working in partnership with NIDIS and synergy with GDIS to advance the science underpinning the development, assessment and provision of drought information.

  16. Advancing the understanding, monitoring and prediction of North American drought in support of NIDIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariotti, Annarita; Pulwarty, Roger

    2014-05-01

    The NOAA's Drought Task Force was established in October 2011 with the goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor and predict drought over North America. The Task Force is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in support of the National Integrated Drought Information System NIDIS. It brings together over thirty-five leading drought scientists research laboratories and/or operational centers from NOAA, other U.S. agencies laboratories and academia. Their concerted research effort builds on individual MAPP research projects and related drought-research sector developments. The projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those evaluating new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes. In this presentation we will show how a coordinated, sustained multidisciplinary effort to assess understanding of both past droughts and emergent events contributes to the effectiveness of early warning systems. This contribution will present an overview of Drought Task Force activities to date, including highlights of research activities and how the group has been working in partnership with NIDIS to advance the science underpinning the development, assessment and provision of drought information.

  17. Measured and predicted rotor performance for the SERI advanced wind turbine blades

    SciTech Connect

    Tangler, J.; Smith, B.; Kelley, N.; Jager, D.

    1992-02-01

    Measured and predicted rotor performance for the SERI advanced wind turbine blades were compared to assess the accuracy of predictions and to identify the sources of error affecting both predictions and measurements. An awareness of these sources of error contributes to improved prediction and measurement methods that will ultimately benefit future rotor design efforts. Propeller/vane anemometers were found to underestimate the wind speed in turbulent environments such as the San Gorgonio Pass wind farm area. Using sonic or cup anemometers, good agreement was achieved between predicted and measured power output for wind speeds up to 8 m/sec. At higher wind speeds an optimistic predicted power output and the occurrence of peak power at wind speeds lower than measurements resulted from the omission of turbulence and yaw error. In addition, accurate two-dimensional (2-D) airfoil data prior to stall and a post stall airfoil data synthesization method that reflects three-dimensional (3-D) effects were found to be essential for accurate performance prediction. 11 refs.

  18. Improved NASA-ANOPP Noise Prediction Computer Code for Advanced Subsonic Propulsion Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kontos, K. B.; Janardan, B. A.; Gliebe, P. R.

    1996-01-01

    Recent experience using ANOPP to predict turbofan engine flyover noise suggests that it over-predicts overall EPNL by a significant amount. An improvement in this prediction method is desired for system optimization and assessment studies of advanced UHB engines. An assessment of the ANOPP fan inlet, fan exhaust, jet, combustor, and turbine noise prediction methods is made using static engine component noise data from the CF6-8OC2, E(3), and QCSEE turbofan engines. It is shown that the ANOPP prediction results are generally higher than the measured GE data, and that the inlet noise prediction method (Heidmann method) is the most significant source of this overprediction. Fan noise spectral comparisons show that improvements to the fan tone, broadband, and combination tone noise models are required to yield results that more closely simulate the GE data. Suggested changes that yield improved fan noise predictions but preserve the Heidmann model structure are identified and described. These changes are based on the sets of engine data mentioned, as well as some CFM56 engine data that was used to expand the combination tone noise database. It should be noted that the recommended changes are based on an analysis of engines that are limited to single stage fans with design tip relative Mach numbers greater than one.

  19. Evaluation of Cloud Microphysics in JMA-NHM Simulations Using Bin or Bulk Microphysical Schemes through Comparison with Cloud Radar Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iguchi, Takamichi; Nakajima, Teruyuki; Khain, Alexander P.; Saito, Kazuo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Okamoto, Hajime; Nishizawa, Tomoaki; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2012-01-01

    Numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations using the Japan Meteorological Agency NonhydrostaticModel (JMA-NHM) are conducted for three precipitation events observed by shipborne or spaceborneW-band cloud radars. Spectral bin and single-moment bulk cloud microphysics schemes are employed separatelyfor an intercomparative study. A radar product simulator that is compatible with both microphysicsschemes is developed to enable a direct comparison between simulation and observation with respect to theequivalent radar reflectivity factor Ze, Doppler velocity (DV), and path-integrated attenuation (PIA). Ingeneral, the bin model simulation shows better agreement with the observed data than the bulk modelsimulation. The correction of the terminal fall velocities of snowflakes using those of hail further improves theresult of the bin model simulation. The results indicate that there are substantial uncertainties in the masssizeand sizeterminal fall velocity relations of snowflakes or in the calculation of terminal fall velocity of snowaloft. For the bulk microphysics, the overestimation of Ze is observed as a result of a significant predominanceof snow over cloud ice due to substantial deposition growth directly to snow. The DV comparison shows thata correction for the fall velocity of hydrometeors considering a change of particle size should be introducedeven in single-moment bulk cloud microphysics.

  20. Plastic Instability in Complex Strain Paths Predicted by Advanced Constitutive Equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butuc, Marilena C.; Barlat, Frédéric; Gracio, José J.; Vincze, Gabriela

    2011-08-01

    The present paper aims at predicting plastic instabilities under complex loading histories using an advanced sheet metal forming limit model. The onset of localized necking is computed using the Marciniak-Kuczinsky (MK) analysis [1] with a physically-based hardening model and the phenomenological anisotropic yield criterion Yld2000-2d [2]. The hardening model accounts for anisotropic work-hardening induced by the microstructural evolution at large strains, which was proposed by Teodosiu and Hu [3]. Simulations are carried out for linear and complex strain paths. Experimentally, two deep-drawing quality sheet metals are selected: a bake-hardening steel (BH) and a DC06 steel sheet. The validity of the model is assessed by comparing the predicted and experimental forming limits. The remarkable accuracy of the developed software to predict the forming limits under linear and non-linear strain path is obviously due to the performance of the advanced constitutive equations to describe with great detail the material behavior. The effect of strain-induced anisotropy on formability evolution under strain path changes, as predicted by the microstructural hardening model, is particularly well captured by the model.

  1. A two-moment bulk microphysics coupled with a mesoscale model WRF: Model description and first results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Wenhua; Zhao, Fengsheng; Hu, Zhijin; Feng, Xuan

    2011-09-01

    The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) two-moment bulk microphysics scheme was adopted in this study to investigate the representation of cloud and precipitation processes under different environmental conditions. The scheme predicts the mixing ratio of water vapor as well as the mixing ratios and number concentrations of cloud droplets, rain, ice, snow, and graupel. A new parameterization approach to simulate heterogeneous droplet activation was developed in this scheme. Furthermore, the improved CAMS scheme was coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF v3.1), which made it possible to simulate the microphysics of clouds and precipitation as well as the cloud-aerosol interactions in selected atmospheric condition. The rain event occurring on 27-28 December 2008 in eastern China was simulated using the CAMS scheme and three sophisticated microphysics schemes in the WRF model. Results showed that the simulated 36-h accumulated precipitations were generally agreed with observation data, and the CAMS scheme performed well in the southern area of the nested domain. The radar reflectivity, the averaged precipitation intensity, and the hydrometeor mixing ratios simulated by the CAMS scheme were generally consistent with those from other microphysics schemes. The hydrometeor number concentrations simulated by the CAMS scheme were also close to the experiential values in stratus clouds. The model results suggest that the CAMS scheme performs reasonably well in describing the microphysics of clouds and precipitation in the mesoscale WRF model.

  2. Unsteady blade surface pressures on a large-scale advanced propeller - Prediction and data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1990-01-01

    An unsteady three dimensional Euler analysis technique is employed to compute the flowfield of an advanced propeller operating at an angle of attack. The predicted blade pressure waveforms are compared with wind tunnel data at two Mach numbers, 0.5 and 0.2. The inflow angle is three degrees. For an inflow Mach number of 0.5, the predicted pressure response is in fair agreement with data: the predicted phases of the waveforms are in close agreement with data while the magnitudes are underpredicted. At the low Mach number of 0.2 (take-off) the numerical solution shows the formation of a leading edge vortex which is in qualitative agreement with measurements. However, the highly nonlinear pressure response measured on the blade suction surface is not captured in the present inviscid analysis.

  3. Unsteady blade-surface pressures on a large-scale advanced propeller: Prediction and data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1990-01-01

    An unsteady 3-D Euler analysis technique is employed to compute the flow field of an advanced propeller operating at an angle of attack. The predicted blade pressure waveforms are compared with wind tunnel data at two Mach numbers, 0.5 and 0.2. The inflow angle is three degrees. For an inflow Mach number of 0.5, the predicted pressure response is in fair agreement with data: the predicted phases of the waveforms are in close agreement with data while the magnitudes are underpredicted. At the low Mach number of 0.2 (takeoff), the numerical solution shows the formation of a leading edge vortex which is in qualitative agreement with measurements. However, the highly nonlinear pressure response measured on the blade suction surface is not captured in the present inviscid analysis.

  4. A Simple Tool to Predict ESRD Within 1 Year in Elderly Patients with Advanced CKD

    PubMed Central

    Drawz, Paul E.; Goswami, Puja; Azem, Reem; Babineau, Denise C.; Rahman, Mahboob

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common in older patients; currently, no tools are available to predict the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) within 1 year. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a model to predict the 1 year risk for ESRD in elderly subjects with advanced CKD. DESIGN Retrospective study SETTING Veterans Affairs Medical Center PARTICIPANTS Patients over 65 years of age with CKD with an estimated (eGFR) less than 30mL/min/1.73m2. MEASUREMENTS The outcome was ESRD within 1 year of the index eGFR. Cox regression was used to develop a predictive model (VA risk score) which was validated in a separate cohort. RESULTS Of the 1,866 patients in the developmental cohort, 77 developed ESRD. Risk factors for ESRD in the final model were age, congestive heart failure, systolic blood pressure, eGFR, potassium, and albumin. In the validation cohort, the C index for the VA risk score was 0.823. The risk for developing ESRD at 1 year from lowest to highest tertile was 0.08%, 2.7%, and 11.3% (P<0.001). The C-index for the recently published Tangri model in the validation cohort was 0.780. CONCLUSION A new model using commonly available clinical measures shows excellent ability to predict the onset of ESRD within the next year in elderly subjects. Additionally, the Tangri model had very good predictive ability. Patients and physicians can use these risk models to inform decisions regarding preparation for renal replacement therapy in patients with advanced CKD. PMID:23617782

  5. Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry V.; Schifer, Nicholas A.; Briggs, Maxwell H.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASCs convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a particular operating frequency, hot end and cold end temperatures, and specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. Microporous bulk insulation is used in the ground support test hardware to minimize the loss of thermal energy from the electric heat source to the environment. The insulation package is characterized before operation to predict how much heat will be absorbed by the convertor and how much will be lost to the environment during operation. In an effort to validate these predictions, numerous tasks have been performed, which provided a more accurate value for net heat input into the ASCs. This test and modeling effort included: (a) making thermophysical property measurements of test setup materials to provide inputs to the numerical models, (b) acquiring additional test data that was collected during convertor tests to provide numerical models with temperature profiles of the test setup via thermocouple and infrared measurements, (c) using multidimensional numerical models (computational fluid dynamics code) to predict net heat input of an operating convertor, and (d) using validation test hardware to provide direct comparison of numerical results and validate the multidimensional numerical models used to predict convertor net heat input. This effort produced high fidelity ASC net heat input predictions, which were successfully validated using

  6. Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

    PubMed Central

    Shao, Yu-Yun; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

    2015-01-01

    Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC. PMID:26420960

  7. Comparison of two imaging programs in predicting the soft tissue changes with mandibular advancement surgery.

    PubMed

    Ravindranath, Sneha; Krishnaswamy, Nathamuni Rengarajan; Sundaram, Venkateswaran

    2011-01-01

    Establishing common objectives and expectations concerning the outcome of proposed surgical orthodontic therapy is a crucial part of the treatment planning process, which has been greatly simplified by imaging software. The purpose of this study was to investigate the reliability of two surgical imaging programs--Dolphin Imaging 10 and Vistadent OC--in simulating the actual outcome of mandibular advancement surgery by using a visual analog scale (VAS) judged by a panel of orthodontists, oral surgeons, and laypersons. The predictions were also analyzed with soft tissue cephalometric evaluation. The results of the study showed that in predicting the surgical outcome evaluated by the VAS, both programs received a mean rating of fair. One was marginally superior for the overall assessment among all three panelist groups. Region-wise, rating indicated the lower lip region to be the least accurate, and the submental region received the highest scores. The soft tissue cephalometric parameters showed minimal differences except for the lower lip parameters. Thus, Dolphin Imaging 10 and Vistadent OC are reliable in predicting mandibular advancement surgical outcomes with inaccuracies chiefly in the lower lip region. PMID:22299108

  8. Microphysical Modelling of Polar Stratospheric Clouds During the 1999-2000 Winter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drdla, Katja; Schoeberl, Mark; Rosenfield, Joan; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The evolution of the 1999-2000 Arctic winter has been examined using a microphysical/photochemical model run along diabatic trajectories. A large number of trajectories have been generated, filling the vortex throughout the region of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, and extending from November until the vortex breakup, in order to provide representative sampling of the evolution of PSCs and their effect on stratospheric chemistry. The 1999-2000 winter was particularly cold, allowing extensive PSC formation. Many trajectories have ten-day periods continuously below the Type I PSC threshold; significant periods of Type II PSCs are also indicated. The model has been used to test the extent and severity of denitrification and dehydration predicted using a range of different microphysical schemes. Scenarios in which freezing only occurs below the ice frost point (causing explicit coupling of denitrification and dehydration) have been tested, as well as scenarios with partial freezing at warmer temperatures (in which denitrification can occur independently of dehydration). The sensitivity to parameters such as aerosol freezing rates and heterogeneous freezing have been explored. Several scenarios cause sufficient denitrification to affect chlorine partitioning, and in turn, model-predicted ozone depletion, demonstrating that an improved understanding of the microphysics responsible for denitrification is necessary for understanding ozone loss rates.

  9. Recent advances in dynamical extra-seasonal to annual climate prediction at IAP/CAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Zhaohui; Wang, Huijun; Zhou, Guangqing; Chen, Hong; Lang, Xianmei; Zhao, Yan; Zeng, Qingcun

    2004-06-01

    Recent advances in dynamical climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS) during the last five years have been briefly described in this paper. Firstly, the second generation of the IAP dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-II) has been described, and two sets of hindcast experiments of the summer rainfall anomalies over China for the periods of 1980 1994 with different versions of the IAP AGCM have been conducted. The comparison results show that the predictive skill of summer rainfall anomalies over China is improved with the improved IAP AGCM in which the surface albedo parameterization is modified. Furthermore, IAP DCP-II has been applied to the real-time prediction of summer rainfall anomalies over China since 1998, and the verification results show that IAP DCP-II can quite well capture the large scale patterns of the summer flood/drought situations over China during the last five years (1998 2002). Meanwhile, an investigation has demonstrated the importance of the atmospheric initial conditions on the seasonal climate prediction, along with studies on the influences from surface boundary conditions (e.g., land surface characteristics, sea surface temperature). Certain conclusions have been reached, such as, the initial atmospheric anomalies in spring may play an important role in the summer climate anomalies, and soil moisture anomalies in spring can also have a significant impact on the summer climate anomalies over East Asia. Finally, several practical techniques (e.g., ensemble technique, correction method, etc.), which lead to the increase of the prediction skill for summer rainfall anomalies over China, have also been illustrated. The paper concludes with a list of critical requirements needed for the further improvement of dynamical seasonal climate prediction.

  10. Exploring dark matter microphysics with galaxy surveys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Escudero, Miguel; Mena, Olga; Vincent, Aaron C.; Wilkinson, Ryan J.; Bœhm, Céline

    2015-09-01

    We use present cosmological observations and forecasts of future experiments to illustrate the power of large-scale structure (LSS) surveys in probing dark matter (DM) microphysics and unveiling potential deviations from the standard ΛCDM scenario. To quantify this statement, we focus on an extension of ΛCDM with DM-neutrino scattering, which leaves a distinctive imprint on the angular and matter power spectra. After finding that future CMB experiments (such as COrE+) will not significantly improve the constraints set by the Planck satellite, we show that the next generation of galaxy clustering surveys (such as DESI) could play a leading role in constraining alternative cosmologies and even have the potential to make a discovery. Typically we find that DESI would be an order of magnitude more sensitive to DM interactions than Planck, thus probing effects that until now have only been accessible via N-body simulations.

  11. MOD06 Optical and Microphysical Retrievals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, Michael D.; Platnick, Steven; Arnold, G. T.; Dinsick, J.; Gatebe, C. K.; Gray, M. A.; Hubanks, P. A.; Moody, E. G.; Wind, B.; Wind, G.

    2003-01-01

    Major efforts over the past six months included: (1) submission of MOD06 Optical and Microphysical Retrieval recompetition proposal, (2) delivery of a MODIS Atmosphere Level-3 update, (3) delivery of the MODIS Atmosphere s new combined Level-2 product, (4) development of an above-cloud precipitable water research algorithm and a multi-layer cloud detection algorithm, (5) continued development of a Fortran 90 version of the retrieval code for use with MAS as well as operational MODIS processing, (6) preliminary analysis of CRYSTAL-FACE field experiment in July 2002, (7) continued analysis of data obtained during the SAFARI 2000 dry season campaign in southern Africa, and the Arctic FIRE-ACE experiment.

  12. Cloud microphysical relationships in California marine stratus

    SciTech Connect

    Hudson, J.G.; Svensson, G.

    1995-12-01

    Cloud microphysical measurements off the southern California coast are presented and compared with in situ airborne measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectra. Large-scale variations in cloud droplet concentrations were due to CCN variations, some medium-scale variations may be a result of the conversion of droplets to drops by coalescence, while small-scale variations were due to different proportions of the CCN spectra being activated because of variations in updraft velocity at cloud base. This latter internal mixing process produces an inverse relationship between droplet concentration and mean size and an increase in droplet spectral width with mean droplet size. Drizzle drop concentrations are strongly associated with lower droplet concentrations, larger droplets, and greater droplet spectral width. 29 refs., 9 figs., 3 tabs.

  13. Simulation studies of the impact of advanced observing systems on numerical weather prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, R.; Kalnay, E.; Susskind, J.; Reuter, D.; Baker, W. E.; Halem, M.

    1984-01-01

    To study the potential impact of advanced passive sounders and lidar temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind observing systems on large-scale numerical weather prediction, a series of realistic simulation studies between the European Center for medium-range weather forecasts, the National Meteorological Center, and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences is conducted. The project attempts to avoid the unrealistic character of earlier simulation studies. The previous simulation studies and real-data impact tests are reviewed and the design of the current simulation system is described. Consideration is given to the simulation of observations of space-based sounding systems.

  14. Development of a constitutive model for creep and life prediction of advanced silicon nitride ceramics

    SciTech Connect

    Ding, J.L.; Liu, K.C.; Brinkman, C.R.

    1992-12-31

    A constitutive model capable of describing deformation and predicting rupture life was developed for high temperature ceramic materials under general thermal-mechanical loading conditions. The model was developed based on the deformation and fracture behavior observed from a systematic experimental study on an advanced silicon nitride (Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}) ceramic material. Validity of the model was evaluated with reference to creep and creep rupture data obtained under constant and stepwise-varied loading conditions, including the effects of annealing on creep and creep rupture behavior.

  15. A proposed predictive model for advanced fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B and its validation

    PubMed Central

    Nishikawa, Hiroki; Hasegawa, Kunihiro; Ishii, Akio; Takata, Ryo; Enomoto, Hirayuki; Yoh, Kazunori; Kishino, Kyohei; Shimono, Yoshihiro; Iwata, Yoshinori; Nakano, Chikage; Nishimura, Takashi; Aizawa, Nobuhiro; Sakai, Yoshiyuki; Ikeda, Naoto; Takashima, Tomoyuki; Iijima, Hiroko; Nishiguchi, Shuhei

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We created a predictive model using serum-based biomarkers for advanced fibrosis (F3 or more) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and to confirm the accuracy in an independent cohort. A total of 249 CHB patients were analyzed. To achieve our study aim, a training group (n = 125) and a validation group (n = 124) were formed. In the training group, parameters related to the presence of advanced fibrosis in univariate and multivariate analyses were examined, and a formula for advanced fibrosis was created. Next, we verified the applicability of the predictive model in the validation group. Multivariate analysis identified that gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT, P = 0.0343) and platelet count (P = 0.0034) were significant predictors of the presence of advanced fibrosis, while Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein (WFA+-M2BP, P = 0.0741) and hyaluronic acid (P = 0.0916) tended to be significant factors. Using these 4 parameters, we created the following formula: GMPH score = −0.755 − (0.015 × GGT) − (0.268 × WFA+-M2BP) + (0.167 × platelet count) + (0.003 × hyaluronic acid). In 8 analyzed variables (WFA+-M2BP, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, FIB-4 index, prothrombin time, platelet count, hyaluronic acid, Forns index, and GMPH score), GMPH score had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for advanced fibrosis with a value of 0.8064 in the training group and in the validation group, GMPH score also had the highest AUROC (0.7782). In all subgroup analyses of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) status (HB surface antigen quantification, HBV-DNA quantification, and HBe antigen seropositivity), GMPH score in F3 or F4 was significantly lower than that in F0 to F2. In the above mentioned 8 variables, differences between the liver fibrosis stages (F0 to F1 vs F2, F2 vs F3, F3 vs F4, F0 to F1 vs F3, F0 to F1 vs F4, and F2 vs

  16. A proposed predictive model for advanced fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B and its validation.

    PubMed

    Nishikawa, Hiroki; Hasegawa, Kunihiro; Ishii, Akio; Takata, Ryo; Enomoto, Hirayuki; Yoh, Kazunori; Kishino, Kyohei; Shimono, Yoshihiro; Iwata, Yoshinori; Nakano, Chikage; Nishimura, Takashi; Aizawa, Nobuhiro; Sakai, Yoshiyuki; Ikeda, Naoto; Takashima, Tomoyuki; Iijima, Hiroko; Nishiguchi, Shuhei

    2016-08-01

    We created a predictive model using serum-based biomarkers for advanced fibrosis (F3 or more) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and to confirm the accuracy in an independent cohort.A total of 249 CHB patients were analyzed. To achieve our study aim, a training group (n = 125) and a validation group (n = 124) were formed. In the training group, parameters related to the presence of advanced fibrosis in univariate and multivariate analyses were examined, and a formula for advanced fibrosis was created. Next, we verified the applicability of the predictive model in the validation group.Multivariate analysis identified that gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT, P = 0.0343) and platelet count (P = 0.0034) were significant predictors of the presence of advanced fibrosis, while Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein (WFA-M2BP, P = 0.0741) and hyaluronic acid (P = 0.0916) tended to be significant factors. Using these 4 parameters, we created the following formula: GMPH score = -0.755 - (0.015 × GGT) - (0.268 × WFA-M2BP) + (0.167 × platelet count) + (0.003 × hyaluronic acid). In 8 analyzed variables (WFA-M2BP, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, FIB-4 index, prothrombin time, platelet count, hyaluronic acid, Forns index, and GMPH score), GMPH score had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for advanced fibrosis with a value of 0.8064 in the training group and in the validation group, GMPH score also had the highest AUROC (0.7782). In all subgroup analyses of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) status (HB surface antigen quantification, HBV-DNA quantification, and HBe antigen seropositivity), GMPH score in F3 or F4 was significantly lower than that in F0 to F2. In the above mentioned 8 variables, differences between the liver fibrosis stages (F0 to F1 vs F2, F2 vs F3, F3 vs F4, F0 to F1 vs F3, F0 to F1 vs F4, and F2 vs F4) for the entire

  17. Predictive and preventive strategies to advance the treatments of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases: the Ukrainian context

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Despite great efforts in treatments of cardiovascular diseases, the field requires innovative strategies because of high rates of morbidity, mortality and disability, indicating evident deficits in predictive vascular diagnosis and individualized treatment approaches. Talking about the vascular system, currently, physicians are not provided with integrated medical approaches to diagnose and treat vascular diseases. Only an individual global approach to the analysis of all segments in the vascular system of a patient allows finding the optimal way for vascular disease treatment. As for the existing methodology, there is a dominance of static methods such as X-ray contrast angiography and magnetic resonance imaging in angiomode. Taking into account the world experience, this article deals with innovative strategies, aiming at predictive diagnosis in vascular system, personalization of the biomedical treatment approaches, and targeted prevention of individual patient cohorts. Clinical examples illustrate the advances in corresponding healthcare sectors. Recommendations are provided to promote the field. PMID:23083430

  18. Insights on TTL dehydration mechanisms from microphysical modelling of aircraft observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ueyama, R.; Pfister, L.; Jensen, E. J.

    2013-12-01

    The dynamical and microphysical processes that influence water vapor concentrations in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) are investigated in simulations of cloud formation and dehydration along air parcel trajectories. We confirm the validity of our Lagrangian models in a case study involving measurements from the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) flights over the central and eastern tropical Pacific. ERA-Interim winds and seasonal mean heating rates from Yang et al. (2010) are used to advance parcels back in time from the flight tracks, and time-varying vertical profiles of water vapor along the diabatic trajectories are calculated in a one-dimensional cloud model as in Jensen and Pfister (2004) but with more reliable temperature field, wave and convection schemes. The simulated water vapor profiles demonstrate a significant improvement over estimates based on the Lagrangian Dry Point, agreeing well with aircraft observations when the effects of cloud microphysics, subgrid-scale gravity waves and convection are included. Following this approach, we examine the dynamical and microphysical control of TTL water vapor in the tropics and elucidate the dominant processes in the winter and summer seasons. Implications of the TTL dehydration processes for the regulation of global stratospheric humidity will be discussed.

  19. Multiscale Modeling of Advanced Materials for Damage Prediction and Structural Health Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkowski, Luke

    Advanced aerospace materials, including fiber reinforced polymer and ceramic matrix composites, are increasingly being used in critical and demanding applications, challenging the current damage prediction, detection, and quantification methodologies. Multiscale computational models offer key advantages over traditional analysis techniques and can provide the necessary capabilities for the development of a comprehensive virtual structural health monitoring (SHM) framework. Virtual SHM has the potential to drastically improve the design and analysis of aerospace components through coupling the complementary capabilities of models able to predict the initiation and propagation of damage under a wide range of loading and environmental scenarios, simulate interrogation methods for damage detection and quantification, and assess the health of a structure. A major component of the virtual SHM framework involves having micromechanics-based multiscale composite models that can provide the elastic, inelastic, and damage behavior of composite material systems under mechanical and thermal loading conditions and in the presence of microstructural complexity and variability. Quantification of the role geometric and architectural variability in the composite microstructure plays in the local and global composite behavior is essential to the development of appropriate scale-dependent unit cells and boundary conditions for the multiscale model. Once the composite behavior is predicted and variability effects assessed, wave-based SHM simulation models serve to provide knowledge on the probability of detection and characterization accuracy of damage present in the composite. The research presented in this dissertation provides the foundation for a comprehensive SHM framework for advanced aerospace materials. The developed models enhance the prediction of damage formation as a result of ceramic matrix composite processing, improve the understanding of the effects of architectural and

  20. A hybrid numerical technique for predicting the aerodynamic and acoustic fields of advanced turboprops

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Homicz, G. F.; Moselle, J. R.

    1985-01-01

    A hybrid numerical procedure is presented for the prediction of the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of advanced turboprops. A hybrid scheme is proposed which in principle leads to a consistent simultaneous prediction of both fields. In the inner flow a finite difference method, the Approximate-Factorization Alternating-Direction-Implicit (ADI) scheme, is used to solve the nonlinear Euler equations. In the outer flow the linearized acoustic equations are solved via a Boundary-Integral Equation (BIE) method. The two solutions are iteratively matched across a fictitious interface in the flow so as to maintain continuity. At convergence the resulting aerodynamic load prediction will automatically satisfy the appropriate free-field boundary conditions at the edge of the finite difference grid, while the acoustic predictions will reflect the back-reaction of the radiated field on the magnitude of the loading source terms, as well as refractive effects in the inner flow. The equations and logic needed to match the two solutions are developed and the computer program implementing the procedure is described. Unfortunately, no converged solutions were obtained, due to unexpectedly large running times. The reasons for this are discussed and several means to alleviate the situation are suggested.

  1. Insights on TTL Dehydration Mechanisms from Microphysical Modelling of Aircraft Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ueyama, R.; Pfister, L.; Jensen, E.

    2014-01-01

    The Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL), a transition layer between the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the tropics, serves as the entryway of various trace gases into the stratosphere. Of particular interest is the transport of water vapor through the TTL, as WV is an important greenhouse gas and also plays a significant role in stratospheric chemistry by affecting polar stratospheric cloud formation and the ozone budget. While the dominant control of stratospheric water vapor by tropical cold point temperatures via the "freeze-drying" process is generally well understood, the details of the TTL dehydration mechanisms, including the relative roles of deep convection, atmospheric waves and cloud microphysical processes, remain an active area of research. The dynamical and microphysical processes that influence TTL water vapor concentrations are investigated in simulations of cloud formation and dehydration along air parcel trajectories. We first confirm the validity of our Lagrangian models in a case study involving measurements from the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) flights over the central and eastern tropical Pacific in Oct-Nov 2011 and Jan-Feb 2013. ERA-Interim winds and seasonal mean heating rates from Yang et al. (2010) are used to advance parcels back in time from the flight tracks, and time-varying vertical profiles of water vapor along the diabatic trajectories are calculated in a one-dimensional cloud model as in Jensen and Pfister (2004) but with more reliable temperature field, wave and convection schemes. The simulated water vapor profiles demonstrate a significant improvement over estimates based on the Lagrangian Dry Point, agreeing well with aircraft observations when the effects of cloud microphysics, subgrid-scale gravity waves and convection are included. Following this approach, we examine the dynamical and microphysical control of TTL water vapor in the 30ºS-30ºN latitudinal belt and elucidate the dominant processes

  2. Plasma genetic and genomic abnormalities predict treatment response and clinical outcome in advanced prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Xia, Shu; Kohli, Manish; Du, Meijun; Dittmar, Rachel L; Lee, Adam; Nandy, Debashis; Yuan, Tiezheng; Guo, Yongchen; Wang, Yuan; Tschannen, Michael R; Worthey, Elizabeth; Jacob, Howard; See, William; Kilari, Deepak; Wang, Xuexia; Hovey, Raymond L; Huang, Chiang-Ching; Wang, Liang

    2015-06-30

    Liquid biopsies, examinations of tumor components in body fluids, have shown promise for predicting clinical outcomes. To evaluate tumor-associated genomic and genetic variations in plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and their associations with treatment response and overall survival, we applied whole genome and targeted sequencing to examine the plasma cfDNAs derived from 20 patients with advanced prostate cancer. Sequencing-based genomic abnormality analysis revealed locus-specific gains or losses that were common in prostate cancer, such as 8q gains, AR amplifications, PTEN losses and TMPRSS2-ERG fusions. To estimate tumor burden in cfDNA, we developed a Plasma Genomic Abnormality (PGA) score by summing the most significant copy number variations. Cox regression analysis showed that PGA scores were significantly associated with overall survival (p < 0.04). After androgen deprivation therapy or chemotherapy, targeted sequencing showed significant mutational profile changes in genes involved in androgen biosynthesis, AR activation, DNA repair, and chemotherapy resistance. These changes may reflect the dynamic evolution of heterozygous tumor populations in response to these treatments. These results strongly support the feasibility of using non-invasive liquid biopsies as potential tools to study biological mechanisms underlying therapy-specific resistance and to predict disease progression in advanced prostate cancer. PMID:25915538

  3. A Model to Predict Nitrogen Losses in Advanced Soil-Based Wastewater Treatment Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morales, I.; Cooper, J.; Loomis, G.; Kalen, D.; Amador, J.; Boving, T. B.

    2014-12-01

    Most of the non-point source Nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds are considered environmental pollutants because they deplete the oxygen availability in water bodies and produce eutrophication. The objective of this study was to simulate the fate and transport of Nitrogen in OWTS. The commercially-available 2D/3D HYDRUS software was used to develop a transport and fate model. Experimental data from a laboratory meso-cosm study included the soil moisture content, NH4 and NO3- data. That data set was used to calibrate the model. Three types of OWTS were simulated: (1) pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (SND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. To better understand the nitrogen removal mechanism and the performance of OWTS technologies, replicate (n = 3) intact soil mesocosms were used with 15N-labelled nitrogen inputs. As a result, it was estimated that N removal by denitrification was predominant in P&S. However, it is suggested that N was removed by nitrification in SND and GEO. The calibrated model was used to estimate Nitrogen fluxes for both conventional and advanced OWTS. Also, the model predicted the N losses from nitrification and denitrification in all OWTS. These findings help to provide practitioners with guidelines to estimate N removal efficiencies for OWTS, and predict N loads and spatial distribution for identifying non-point sources.

  4. Plasma genetic and genomic abnormalities predict treatment response and clinical outcome in advanced prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Du, Meijun; Dittmar, Rachel L.; Lee, Adam; Nandy, Debashis; Yuan, Tiezheng; Guo, Yongchen; Wang, Yuan; Tschannen, Michael R.; Worthey, Elizabeth; Jacob, Howard; See, William; Kilari, Deepak; Wang, Xuexia; Hovey, Raymond L.; Huang, Chiang-Ching; Wang, Liang

    2015-01-01

    Liquid biopsies, examinations of tumor components in body fluids, have shown promise for predicting clinical outcomes. To evaluate tumor-associated genomic and genetic variations in plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and their associations with treatment response and overall survival, we applied whole genome and targeted sequencing to examine the plasma cfDNAs derived from 20 patients with advanced prostate cancer. Sequencing-based genomic abnormality analysis revealed locus-specific gains or losses that were common in prostate cancer, such as 8q gains, AR amplifications, PTEN losses and TMPRSS2-ERG fusions. To estimate tumor burden in cfDNA, we developed a Plasma Genomic Abnormality (PGA) score by summing the most significant copy number variations. Cox regression analysis showed that PGA scores were significantly associated with overall survival (p < 0.04). After androgen deprivation therapy or chemotherapy, targeted sequencing showed significant mutational profile changes in genes involved in androgen biosynthesis, AR activation, DNA repair, and chemotherapy resistance. These changes may reflect the dynamic evolution of heterozygous tumor populations in response to these treatments. These results strongly support the feasibility of using non-invasive liquid biopsies as potential tools to study biological mechanisms underlying therapy-specific resistance and to predict disease progression in advanced prostate cancer. PMID:25915538

  5. A prospective study of the efficacy of magnetic resonance spectroscopy imaging for predicting locally advanced prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Razi, Ali; Parizi, Mehdi Kardoust; Kazemeini, Seid Mohammad; Abedi, Akbar

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of magnetic resonance spectroscopy imaging (MRSI) for predicting locally advanced prostate cancer (PC). Materials and methods: Between April 2009 and July 2012, 80 consecutive patients with clinically localized PC had undergone endorectal MRSI before radical retropubic prostatectomy. Clinicopathological parameters, including age, preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA), Gleason score (GS) at biopsy, perinural invasion at biopsy, prostate weight at surgery, GS of surgical specimen, and pathological staging were recorded. The MRSI findings were compared with the histopathological findings of the radical prostatectomy. The diagnostic accuracy measures consisting of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) of MRSI, and other variables in the diagnosis of locally advanced PC (Pathology Stages pT3a, pT3b, or pT4) were evaluated. Results: Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of MRSI in detecting locally advanced PC is 42.4%, 93.6%, 82.3%, and 69.8%, respectively [area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve=0.658, p value <0.0001]. MRSI, cancer-positive core percentage at biopsy, and GS at biopsy are more accurate factors among all the predictive variables in predicting locally advanced PC. Conclusion: MRSI may be considered as a complementary diagnostic modality with high specificity and moderate sensitivity in predicting locally advanced PC. Combination of this modality with other predictive factors helps the surgeon and patient to select an appropriate treatment strategy. PMID:26328204

  6. Predictive Modeling of Estrogen Receptor Binding Agents Using Advanced Cheminformatics Tools and Massive Public Data

    PubMed Central

    Ribay, Kathryn; Kim, Marlene T.; Wang, Wenyi; Pinolini, Daniel; Zhu, Hao

    2016-01-01

    Estrogen receptors (ERα) are a critical target for drug design as well as a potential source of toxicity when activated unintentionally. Thus, evaluating potential ERα binding agents is critical in both drug discovery and chemical toxicity areas. Using computational tools, e.g., Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models, can predict potential ERα binding agents before chemical synthesis. The purpose of this project was to develop enhanced predictive models of ERα binding agents by utilizing advanced cheminformatics tools that can integrate publicly available bioassay data. The initial ERα binding agent data set, consisting of 446 binders and 8307 non-binders, was obtained from the Tox21 Challenge project organized by the NIH Chemical Genomics Center (NCGC). After removing the duplicates and inorganic compounds, this data set was used to create a training set (259 binders and 259 non-binders). This training set was used to develop QSAR models using chemical descriptors. The resulting models were then used to predict the binding activity of 264 external compounds, which were available to us after the models were developed. The cross-validation results of training set [Correct Classification Rate (CCR) = 0.72] were much higher than the external predictivity of the unknown compounds (CCR = 0.59). To improve the conventional QSAR models, all compounds in the training set were used to search PubChem and generate a profile of their biological responses across thousands of bioassays. The most important bioassays were prioritized to generate a similarity index that was used to calculate the biosimilarity score between each two compounds. The nearest neighbors for each compound within the set were then identified and its ERα binding potential was predicted by its nearest neighbors in the training set. The hybrid model performance (CCR = 0.94 for cross validation; CCR = 0.68 for external prediction) showed significant improvement over the original QSAR

  7. A triple-moment hail bulk microphysics scheme. Part I: Description and initial evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loftus, A. M.; Cotton, W. R.; Carrió, G. G.

    2014-10-01

    Hail processes in deep convection can have a substantial impact on precipitation characteristics as well as on dynamic and thermodynamic properties of convective downdrafts and cold pools, yet the realistic representation of hail in many cloud-resolving models employing bulk microphysical schemes is challenging. The limits imposed by fixing one or two of the distribution parameters in many one- and two-moment bulk microphysics schemes often lead to particularly poor representations of particles within the tails of size distribution spectra; an especially important consideration for hail, which covers a broad range of sizes in nature. In order to improve the representation of hail distributions in simulations of deep moist convection in cloud-resolving numerical models, a new triple-moment bulk hail microphysics scheme (3MHAIL) is presented and evaluated. The 3MHAIL scheme predicts the relative dispersion parameter for a gamma distribution function via prognostication of the sixth moment (related to the reflectivity factor) of the distribution in addition to the mass mixing ratio and number concentration (third and zeroeth moments, respectively) thereby allowing for a fully prognostic distribution function. Significant improvement in the representation of sedimentation, melting, and formation processes of hail are achieved with the 3MHAIL scheme compared to lower-order moment schemes.

  8. A triple-moment hail bulk microphysics scheme. Part I: Description and initial evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loftus, A. M.; Cotton, W. R.; Carrió, G. G.

    2014-11-01

    Hail processes in deep convection can have a substantial impact on precipitation characteristics as well as on dynamic and thermodynamic properties of convective downdrafts and cold pools, yet the realistic representation of hail in many cloud-resolving models employing bulk microphysical schemes is challenging. The limits imposed by fixing one or two of the distribution parameters in many one- and two-moment bulk microphysics schemes often lead to particularly poor representations of particles within the tails of size distribution spectra; an especially important consideration for hail, which covers a broad range of sizes in nature. In order to improve the representation of hail distributions in simulations of deep moist convection in cloud-resolving numerical models, a new triple-moment bulk hail microphysics scheme (3MHAIL) is presented and evaluated. The 3MHAIL scheme predicts the relative dispersion parameter for a gamma distribution function via prognostication of the sixth moment (related to the reflectivity factor) of the distribution in addition to the mass mixing ratio and number concentration (third and zeroeth moments, respectively) thereby allowing for a fully prognostic distribution function. Significant improvement in the representation of sedimentation, melting, and formation processes of hail are achieved with the 3MHAIL scheme compared to lower-order moment schemes.

  9. Microphysical Observations and Mesoscale Model Simulation of a Warm Fog Case during FRAM Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gultepe, I.; Milbrandt, J. A.

    2007-06-01

    The objective of this work is to apply a new microphysical parameterization for fog visibility for potential use in numerical weather forecast simulations, and to compare the results with ground-based observations. The observations from the Fog Remote Sensing And Modeling (FRAM) field which took place during the winter of 2005 2006 over southern Ontario, Canada (Phase I) were used in the analysis. The liquid water content (LWC), droplet number concentration (N d ), and temperature (T) were obtained from the fog measuring device (FMD) spectra and Rosemount probe, correspondingly. The visibility (Vis) from a visibility meter, liquid water path from microwave radiometers (MWR), and inferred fog properties such as mean volume diameter, LWC, and N d were also used in the analysis. The results showed that Vis is nonlinearly related to both LWC and N d . Comparisons between newly derived parameterizations and the ones already in use as a function of LWC suggested that if models can predict the total N d and LWC at each time step using a detailed microphysics parameterization, Vis can then be calculated for warm fog conditions. Using outputs from the Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community (MC2) model, being tested with a new multi-moment bulk microphysical scheme, the new Vis parameterization resulted in more accurate Vis values where the correction reached up to 20 50%.

  10. Early Identification of Students Predicted to Enroll in Advanced, Upper-Level High School Courses: An Examination of Validity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeRose, Diego S.; Clement, Russell W.

    2011-01-01

    Broward County Public Schools' Research Services department uses logistic regression analysis to compute an indicator to predict student enrollment in advanced high school courses, for students entering ninth grade for the first time. This prediction indicator, along with other student characteristics, supports high school guidance staffs in…

  11. Advance Prediction of the March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake: A Missed Opportunity for Disaster Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, C. A.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Soloviev, A.

    2012-12-01

    There was a missed opportunity for implementing important disaster preparedness measures following an earthquake prediction that was announced as an alarm in mid-2001. This intermediate-term middle-range prediction was the initiation of a chain of alarms that successfully detected the time, region, and magnitude range for the magnitude 9.0 March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The prediction chains were made using an algorithm called M8 and is the latest of many predictions tested worldwide for more than 25 years, the results of which show at least a 70% success rate. The earthquake detection could have been utilized to implement measures and improve earthquake preparedness in advance; unfortunately this was not done, in part due to the predictions' limited distribution and the lack of applying existing methods for using intermediate-term predictions to make decisions for taking action. The resulting earthquake and induced tsunami caused tremendous devastation to north-east Japan. Methods that were known in advance of the predication and further advanced during the prediction timeframe are presented in a scenario describing some possibilities on how the 2001 prediction may have been utilized to reduce significant damage, including damage to the Fukushima nuclear power plant, and to show prudent cost-effective actions can be taken if the prediction certainty is known, but not necessarily high. The purpose of this presentation is to show how the prediction information can be strategically used to enhance disaster preparedness and reduce future impacts from the world's largest earthquakes.

  12. Effects of Wildfire Pollution on the Microphysical and Electrical Properties of Pyrocumulus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duff, R.; Grant, L. D.; van den Heever, S. C.

    2014-12-01

    Pyrocumulus clouds form over wildfires when hot, smoke-filled air rises, cools and condenses. These clouds have higher cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations, which affect their microphysical and electrical properties. It is important to better understand pyrocumulus cloud microphysical characteristics and lightning formation, which have implications for the prediction of wildfire growth as well as the radiative and chemical characteristics of the upper troposphere. A recent observational study documented an electrified pyrocumulus over the May 2012 Hewlett Gulch fire located to the west of Fort Collins, Colorado. This cloud produced approximately 20 intracloud lightning flashes, and its electrical activity differed from surrounding convection that was not directly impacted by the fire and associated smoke. The goal of this research is to investigate aerosol-induced cloud-scale microphysical differences between clean clouds and polluted pyrocumulus to better characterize the mechanisms that cause pyrocumulus electrification. In order to address this goal, idealized cloud-resolving model simulations were performed using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The model environment was initialized with an average of the 12Z 16 May and 00Z 17 May 2012 observed Denver soundings to represent the conditions when the Hewlett Gulch pyrocumulus occurred. Five simulations were performed using surface aerosol concentrations from 100 to 5000 #/mg. The results demonstrate that in moderately polluted pyrocumulus, rain processes are suppressed while graupel production increases. Extremely polluted pyrocumulus, however, experience a complete shut-down of graupel production, which favors the production of large amounts of liquid water and smaller ice species such as ice crystals and snowflakes. The processes responsible for these microphysical changes, as well as inferred pyrocumulus electrification mechanisms, will be compared with those discussed in previous

  13. Microphysical and radiative characteristics of convective clouds during COHMEX

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fulton, Richard; Heymsfield, Gerald M.

    1990-01-01

    The microphysical structure and the evolution of two strong isolated thunderstorms that occurred on July 11, 1986 in northern Alabama were investigated using data obtained during the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment by CP-2 multiparameter radar, together with passive microwave measurements from ER-2 aircraft. A correlation was found between the magnitude of the microwave T(B) depression and the storm intensity, although a clear relationship was not always obvious between radar-deduced microphysical characteristics and passive microwave radiative observations.

  14. The prediction of the building precision in the Laser Engineered Net Shaping process using advanced networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Z. L.; Li, D. C.; Lu, B. H.; Zhang, A. F.; Zhu, G. X.; Pi, G.

    2010-05-01

    Laser Engineered Net Shaping (LENS) is an advanced manufacturing technology, but it is difficult to control the depositing height (DH) of the prototype because there are many technology parameters influencing the forming process. The effect of main parameters (laser power, scanning speed and powder feeding rate) on the DH of single track is firstly analyzed, and then it shows that there is the complex nonlinear intrinsic relationship between them. In order to predict the DH, the back propagation (BP) based network improved with Adaptive learning rate and Momentum coefficient (AM) algorithm, and the least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) network are both adopted. The mapping relationship between above parameters and the DH is constructed according to training samples collected by LENS experiments, and then their generalization ability, function-approximating ability and real-time are contrastively investigated. The results show that although the predicted result by the BP-AM approximates the experimental result, above performance index of the LS-SVM are better than those of the BP-AM. Finally, high-definition thin-walled parts of AISI316L are successfully fabricated. Hence, the LS-SVM network is more suitable for the prediction of the DH.

  15. A Mars Dust Model with Interactive Dynamics, Radiation, and Microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartwick, Victoria; Toon, O. Brian

    2014-11-01

    Variability of the present day Martian climate is dominated by globally enveloping dust storms that recur with a frequency of approximately three years. Small-scale aeolian processes predictably generate local seasonal storms. However, factors that enhance local storm strength and grow local phenomenon to global scales are poorly understood. Research with Martian general circulation models (GCM) has recently demonstrated a strong correlation between dust storm generation, strength and long-term stability and the global distribution of dust reservoirs and their temporal permanence. Here we present results from the NCAR Mars Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) coupled with a fully interactive dust microphysics scheme. Dust devil lifting and saltation wind driven lifting are parameterized in the emission scheme. Mass is distributed into 20 size bins with a radius range of 0.1 to 8 microns. The initial radial size distribution is log-normal with a sigma value of 1.5. Dust is allowed to advect horizontally and is removed from the atmosphere by dry deposition. Dust also impacts the radiative heating rate, as do water clouds.The large number of dust bins allows for the opportunity to track the size distribution of dust deposits and investigate the long term stability of dust source regions as a function of particle size.

  16. A Mars Dust Model with Interactive Dynamics, Radiation, and Microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartwick, V.; Toon, B.

    2014-12-01

    Variability of the present day Martian climate is dominated by globally enveloping dust storms that recur with a frequency of approximately three years. Small-scale aeolian processes predictably generate local seasonal storms. However, factors that enhance local storm strength and grow local phenomenon to global scales are poorly understood. Research with Martian general circulation models (GCM) has recently demonstrated a strong correlation between dust storm generation, strength and long-term stability and the global distribution of dust reservoirs and their temporal permanence. Here we present results from the NCAR Mars Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) coupled with a fully interactive dust microphysics scheme. Dust devil lifting and saltation wind driven lifting are parameterized in the emission scheme. Mass is distributed into 20 size bins with a radius range of 0.1 to 8 microns. The initial radial size distribution is log-normal with a sigma value of 1.5. Dust is allowed to advect horizontally and is removed from the atmosphere by dry deposition. Dust also impacts the radiative heating rate, as do water clouds.The large number of dust bins allows for the opportunity to track the size distribution of dust deposits and investigate the long term stability of dust source regions as a function of particle size.

  17. The Source Physics Experiments and Advances in Seismic Explosion Monitoring Predictive Capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walter, W. R.; Ford, S. R.; Antoun, T.; Pitarka, A.; Xu, H.; Vorobiev, O.; Rodgers, A.; Pyle, M. L.

    2012-12-01

    Despite many years of study, a number of seismic explosion phenomena remain incompletely understood. These include the generation of S-waves, the variation of absolute amplitudes with emplacement media differences, and the occasional generation of reversed Rayleigh waves. Advances in numerical methods and increased computational power have improved the physics contained in the modeling software and it is possible to couple non-linear source-region effects to far-field propagation codes to predict seismic observables, thereby allowing end-to-end modeling. However, despite the many sensor records from prior nuclear tests, the data available to develop and validate the simulation codes remain limited in important ways. This is particularly the case for the range of both scaled depths of burial and of source media, especially where full near-field to far-field records are available along with key quantitative parameter data such as depth, material properties and yield. For example, two of the most widely used seismic source models, both derived from the best empirical data, Mueller and Murphy (1971) and Denny and Johnson (1989), predict very different amplitudes for greatly overburied explosions. To provide new data to advance predictive explosion modeling capabilities, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is carrying out a series of seven chemical explosions over a range of depths and sizes in the Source Physics Experiments (SPE). These shots are taking place in the Climax Stock granite at the Nevada National Security Site, the location where reversed Rayleigh waves from a nuclear test were first observed in the 1962 HARDHAT event (e.g. Brune and Pomeroy, 1963). Three of the SPE shots have successfully occurred so far, and were well-recorded by an extensive set of instrumentation including seismic, acoustic, EM, and remote sensing. In parallel, detailed site characterization has been conducted using geologic mapping and sampling, borehole geophysics

  18. Gravitational radiation from binary neutron star mergers: Magnetic and microphysical effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neilsen, David; Anderson, Matthew; Lehner, Luis; Liebling, Steven L.; Motl, Patrick; Palenzuela, Carlos; Ponce, Marcelo

    2015-04-01

    Binary neutron star mergers will be important sources of gravitational radiation for Advanced LIGO. Understanding how different physical processes-such as magnetic and microphysical effects due to equations of state or neutrino cooling-are imprinted on the radiation is important for learning more about these systems. We perform a series of binary neutron star mergers to examine some of these effects on the gravitational radiation. We use three different realistic equations of state, ranging from soft to stiff, initially magnetized stars, and include neutrino cooling of the post-merger system using a leakage scheme. We discuss possible observational signatures for these systems.

  19. Diesel engine emissions and combustion predictions using advanced mixing models applicable to fuel sprays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abani, Neerav; Reitz, Rolf D.

    2010-09-01

    An advanced mixing model was applied to study engine emissions and combustion with different injection strategies ranging from multiple injections, early injection and grouped-hole nozzle injection in light and heavy duty diesel engines. The model was implemented in the KIVA-CHEMKIN engine combustion code and simulations were conducted at different mesh resolutions. The model was compared with the standard KIVA spray model that uses the Lagrangian-Drop and Eulerian-Fluid (LDEF) approach, and a Gas Jet spray model that improves predictions of liquid sprays. A Vapor Particle Method (VPM) is introduced that accounts for sub-grid scale mixing of fuel vapor and more accurately and predicts the mixing of fuel-vapor over a range of mesh resolutions. The fuel vapor is transported as particles until a certain distance from nozzle is reached where the local jet half-width is adequately resolved by the local mesh scale. Within this distance the vapor particle is transported while releasing fuel vapor locally, as determined by a weighting factor. The VPM model more accurately predicts fuel-vapor penetrations for early cycle injections and flame lift-off lengths for late cycle injections. Engine combustion computations show that as compared to the standard KIVA and Gas Jet spray models, the VPM spray model improves predictions of in-cylinder pressure, heat released rate and engine emissions of NOx, CO and soot with coarse mesh resolutions. The VPM spray model is thus a good tool for efficiently investigating diesel engine combustion with practical mesh resolutions, thereby saving computer time.

  20. Trajectory and Microphysical Modeling of TTL Water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ueyama, R.; Jensen, E. J.; Pfister, L.

    2014-12-01

    Processes that influence H2O concentrations in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) and consequently regulate stratospheric humidity are investigated in simulations of clouds along backward trajectories of TTL parcels initialized with H2O measurements from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Trajectories are calculated using offline calculations of seasonal mean radiative heating rates in the tropics merged with MERRA extratropical heating rates and ERA-Interim temperature and wind data that have been modified to enhance wave-driven variability in the TTL. We also examine the impact of convective influence along parcel trajectories on cloud formation and dehydration. The distribution of 100 hPa H2O mixing ratios simulated on the final day of the trajectories in boreal winter 2006-07 resembles that of MLS with distinct minima over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, but exhibits an overall dry bias of approximately 20%. Averaged over the tropics, subgrid-scale waves dehydrate the 100 hPa level by ~0.5 ppmv, while convection and cloud microphysical processes moisten by ~0.5 and ~0.7 ppmv, respectively. These three processes combined increase the tropical mean H2O estimate by roughly 20% compared to that based solely on the Lagrangian Dry Point of the trajectories. Possible causes of the model dry bias and TTL cirrus statistics in comparison to those of recent aircraft campaigns will also be discussed.

  1. Cloud Microphysics by Thermal Wave Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, B. J.; Bowdle, D. A.; Reischel, M.

    1985-01-01

    This experiments series is the first application of a low-gravity experimental technique to the study of cloud microphysics. The low-gravity environment is provided by the parabolic maneuver of NASA's KC-135 aircraft. The primary objective is to compare experimental observations of cloud droplet growth and evaporation in a convection free environment with a numerical model of the process. Beyond that, the work also involves the development and testing of low-gravity research techniques. In particular, passive methods of thermal control have been devised and used effectively. The study to date has shown that the method is particularly suitable for looking at interactions between adjoining portions of the cloud drop field and interactions of the drop field with a solid interface. After final analysis of the data, it is expected the results will shed light on the development of cloud droplet size spectra in natural clouds as well as the performance of certain types of cloud physics instrumentation, particularly continuous flow diffusion chambers and loud condensation nuclei counters.

  2. Predictions for Swift Follow-up Observations of Advanced LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Racusin, Judith; Evans, Phil; Connaughton, Valerie

    2015-04-01

    The likely detection of gravitational waves associated with the inspiral of neutron star binaries by the upcoming advanced LIGO/Virgo observatories will be complemented by searches for electromagnetic counterparts over large areas of the sky by Swift and other observatories. As short gamma-ray bursts (GRB) are the most likely electromagnetic counterpart candidates to these sources, we can make predictions based upon the last decade of GRB observations by Swift and Fermi. Swift is uniquely capable of accurately localizing new transients rapidly over large areas of the sky in single and tiled pointings, enabling ground-based follow-up. We describe simulations of the detectability of short GRB afterglows by Swift given existing and hypothetical tiling schemes with realistic observing conditions and delays, which guide the optimal observing strategy and improvements provided by coincident detection with observatories such as Fermi-GBM.

  3. Edge Fracture Prediction ofTraditional and Advanced Trimming Processes for AA6111-T4 Sheets

    SciTech Connect

    Hu, Xiaohua; Choi, Kyoo Sil; Sun, Xin; Golovashchenko, Segey F.

    2014-02-15

    This work examines the traditional and advanced trimming of AA6111-T4 aluminum sheets with finite element simulations. The Rice-Tracy damage model is used for the simulation with damage parameters estimated from experimental observation of grain aspect ratio near the fracture surface of trimmed parts. Fine meshes at the shearing zone, adaptive meshing, and adaptive contact techniques are used to accurately capture the contact interactions between the sharp corner of the trimming tools and the blank to be trimmed. To the knowledge of the authors, these are the first trimming simulations that can predict the effects of shearing clearance on burr heights with quantitative accuracy for AA6111-T4 aluminum sheets. In addition, the models have also accurately reproduced the crack initiation site as well as burr and sliver formation mechanisms observed experimentally.

  4. Surprise Questions for Survival Prediction in Patients With Advanced Cancer: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Hamano, Jun; Morita, Tatsuya; Inoue, Satoshi; Ikenaga, Masayuki; Matsumoto, Yoshihisa; Sekine, Ryuichi; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Hirohashi, Takeshi; Tajima, Tsukasa; Tatara, Ryohei; Watanabe, Hiroaki; Otani, Hiroyuki; Takigawa, Chizuko; Matsuda, Yoshinobu; Nagaoka, Hiroka; Mori, Masanori; Yamamoto, Naoki; Shimizu, Mie; Sasara, Takeshi

    2015-01-01

    Background. Predicting the short-term survival in cancer patients is an important issue for patients, family, and oncologists. Although the prognostic accuracy of the surprise question has value in 1-year mortality for cancer patients, the prognostic value for short-term survival has not been formally assessed. The primary aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic value of the surprise question for 7-day and 30-day survival in patients with advanced cancer. Patients and Methods. The present multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted in Japan from September 2012 through April 2014, involving 16 palliative care units, 19 hospital-based palliative care teams, and 23 home-based palliative care services. Results. We recruited 2,425 patients and included 2,361 for analysis: 912 from hospital-based palliative care teams, 895 from hospital palliative care units, and 554 from home-based palliative care services. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the 7-day survival surprise question were 84.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80.7%–88.0%), 68.0% (95% CI, 67.3%–68.5%), 30.3% (95% CI, 28.9%–31.5%), and 96.4% (95% CI, 95.5%–97.2%), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the 30-day surprise question were 95.6% (95% CI, 94.4%–96.6%), 37.0% (95% CI, 35.9%–37.9%), 57.6% (95% CI, 56.8%–58.2%), and 90.4% (95% CI, 87.7%–92.6%), respectively. Conclusion. Surprise questions are useful for screening patients for short survival. However, the high false-positive rates do not allow clinicians to provide definitive prognosis prediction. Implications for Practice: The findings of this study indicate that clinicians can screen patients for 7- or 30-day survival using surprise questions with 90% or more sensitivity. Clinicians cannot provide accurate prognosis estimation, and all patients will not always die within the defined periods. The

  5. An Advanced Data Assimilation System for Estuary and Coastal Ocean Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, M. J.; Murtugudde, R.; Brown, C. W.

    2008-12-01

    We are developing an advanced data assimilation system for the Chesapeake Bay Forecast System, a regional Earth System Prediction model. To accomplish this, the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) implementation on the Chesapeake Bay (ChesROMS) has been interfaced with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to create an efficient data assimilation system. The LETKF, an ensemble Kalman filtering scheme developed at the University of Maryland, is among the most advanced data assimilation methods and is very effective for large, non-linear dynamical systems in both sparse and dense data coverage situations. Crucial to the LETKF-ChesROMS assimilation system is having accurate open ocean boundary conditions from GODAE and other large scale products. Currently, the assimilation system is run with prescribed climatological boundary conditions in a relatively coarse resolution. In perfect model experiments using ChesROMS, the filter converges quickly and greatly reduces the analysis and subsequent forecast errors in the temperature, salinity, and velocity fields. This error reduction has proved fairly robust to sensitivity studies such as reduced data coverage. The LETKF also provides an efficient algorithm for error estimation and facilitates the investigation of the spatial distribution of the error. This information will be used to determine areas where more monitoring is needed and to address other issues of the observational impacts on the analyses and observational system simulation experiments, in addition to forecast initialization experiments and regional reanalyses for the past decade.

  6. Simulations of precipitation using the Community Earth System Model (CESM): Sensitivity to microphysics time step

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murthi, A.; Menon, S.; Sednev, I.

    2011-12-01

    An inherent difficulty in the ability of global climate models to accurately simulate precipitation lies in the use of a large time step, Δt (usually 30 minutes), to solve the governing equations. Since microphysical processes are characterized by small time scales compared to Δt, finite difference approximations used to advance microphysics equations suffer from numerical instability and large time truncation errors. With this in mind, the sensitivity of precipitation simulated by the atmospheric component of CESM, namely the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.1), to the microphysics time step (τ) is investigated. Model integrations are carried out for a period of five years with a spin up time of about six months for a horizontal resolution of 2.5 × 1.9 degrees and 30 levels in the vertical, with Δt = 1800 s. The control simulation with τ = 900 s is compared with one using τ = 300 s for accumulated precipitation and radi- ation budgets at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA), while keeping Δt fixed. Our choice of τ = 300 s is motivated by previous work on warm rain processes wherein it was shown that a value of τ around 300 s was necessary, but not sufficient, to ensure positive definiteness and numerical stability of the explicit time integration scheme used to integrate the microphysical equations. However, since the entire suite of microphysical processes are represented in our case, we suspect that this might impose additional restrictions on τ. The τ = 300 s case produces differences in large-scale accumulated rainfall from the τ = 900 s case by as large as 200 mm, over certain regions of the globe. The spatial patterns of total accumulated precipitation using τ = 300 s are in closer agreement with satellite observed precipitation, when compared to the τ = 900 s case. Differences are also seen in the radiation budget with the τ = 300 (900) s cases producing surpluses that range between 1-3 W/m2 at both the TOA and surface in the global

  7. Investigation to advance prediction techniques of the low-speed aerodynamics of V/STOL aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maskew, B.; Strash, D.; Nathman, J.; Dvorak, F. A.

    1985-01-01

    A computer program, VSAERO, has been applied to a number of V/STOL configurations with a view to advancing prediction techniques for the low-speed aerodynamic characteristics. The program couples a low-order panel method with surface streamline calculation and integral boundary layer procedures. The panel method--which uses piecewise constant source and doublet panels-includes an iterative procedure for wake shape and models boundary layer displacement effect using the source transpiration technique. Certain improvements to a basic vortex tube jet model were installed in the code prior to evaluation. Very promising results were obtained for surface pressures near a jet issuing at 90 deg from a flat plate. A solid core model was used in the initial part of the jet with a simple entrainment model. Preliminary representation of the downstream separation zone significantly improve the correlation. The program accurately predicted the pressure distribution inside the inlet on the Grumman 698-411 design at a range of flight conditions. Furthermore, coupled viscous/potential flow calculations gave very close correlation with experimentally determined operational boundaries dictated by the onset of separation inside the inlet. Experimentally observed degradation of these operational boundaries between nacelle-alone tests and tests on the full configuration were also indicated by the calculation. Application of the program to the General Dynamics STOL fighter design were equally encouraging. Very close agreement was observed between experiment and calculation for the effects of power on pressure distribution, lift and lift curve slope.

  8. [Plasma Biomarkers as Predictive Factors for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Sorafenib].

    PubMed

    Shiozawa, Kazue; Watanabe, Manabu; Ikehara, Takashi; Matsukiyo, Yasushi; Kogame, Michio; Shinohara, Mie; Kikuchi, Yoshinori; Igarashi, Yoshinori; Sumino, Yasukiyo

    2016-07-01

    We examined plasma biomarkers as predictive factors for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma(ad-HCC)patients treated with sorafenib. We analyzed a-fetoprotein(AFP), AFP-L3, des-g-carboxy prothrombin(DCP), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio(PLR), and vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)before sorafenib therapy, and changes in AFP-L3, NLR, PLR, and VEGF 1 month after sorafenib therapy in 16 patients. High AFP-L3(hazard ratio: 1.058, 95%CI: 1.019-1.098, p=0.003)and high NLR(hazard ratio: 1.475, 95%CI: 1.045-2.082, p=0.027)were significantly associated with poor prognosis in ad-HCC patients treated with sorafenib. There were no significant differences in changes in AFP-L3, NLR, PLR, and VEGF 1 month after sorafenib therapy. We suggest that AFP-L3 and NLR levels before sorafenib therapy in patients with ad-HCC are an important predictive factor for the therapeutic effect of sorafenib and patient survival. PMID:27431630

  9. Advanced error-prediction LDPC with temperature compensation for highly reliable SSDs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tokutomi, Tsukasa; Tanakamaru, Shuhei; Iwasaki, Tomoko Ogura; Takeuchi, Ken

    2015-09-01

    To improve the reliability of NAND Flash memory based solid-state drives (SSDs), error-prediction LDPC (EP-LDPC) has been proposed for multi-level-cell (MLC) NAND Flash memory (Tanakamaru et al., 2012, 2013), which is effective for long retention times. However, EP-LDPC is not as effective for triple-level cell (TLC) NAND Flash memory, because TLC NAND Flash has higher error rates and is more sensitive to program-disturb error. Therefore, advanced error-prediction LDPC (AEP-LDPC) has been proposed for TLC NAND Flash memory (Tokutomi et al., 2014). AEP-LDPC can correct errors more accurately by precisely describing the error phenomena. In this paper, the effects of AEP-LDPC are investigated in a 2×nm TLC NAND Flash memory with temperature characterization. Compared with LDPC-with-BER-only, the SSD's data-retention time is increased by 3.4× and 9.5× at room-temperature (RT) and 85 °C, respectively. Similarly, the acceptable BER is increased by 1.8× and 2.3×, respectively. Moreover, AEP-LDPC can correct errors with pre-determined tables made at higher temperatures to shorten the measurement time before shipping. Furthermore, it is found that one table can cover behavior over a range of temperatures in AEP-LDPC. As a result, the total table size can be reduced to 777 kBytes, which makes this approach more practical.

  10. A Comparison between Airborne and Mountaintop Cloud Microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, R.; Lowenthal, D. H.; Hallar, A. G.; McCubbin, I.; Avallone, L. M.; Mace, G. G.; Wang, Z.

    2014-12-01

    Complex terrain has a large impact on cloud dynamics and microphysics. Several studies have examined the microphysical details of orographically-enhanced clouds from either an aircraft or from a mountain top location. However, further research is needed to characterize the relationships between mountain top and airborne microphysical properties. During the winter of 2011, an airborne study, the Colorado Airborne Mixed-Phase Cloud Study (CAMPS), and a ground-based field campaign, the Storm Peak Lab (SPL) Cloud Property Validation Experiment (StormVEx) were conducted in the Park Range of the Colorado Rockies. The CAMPS study utilized the University of Wyoming King Air (UWKA) to provide airborne cloud microphysical and meteorological data on 29 flights totaling 98 flight hours over the Park Range from December 15, 2010 to February 28, 2011. The UWKA was equipped with instruments that measured both cloud droplet and ice crystal size distributions, liquid water content, total water content (vapor, liquid, and ice), and 3-dimensional wind speed and direction. The Wyoming Cloud Radar and Lidar were also deployed during the campaign. These measurements are used to characterize cloud structure upwind and above the Park Range. StormVEx measured cloud droplet, ice crystal, and aerosol size distributions at SPL, located on the west summit of Mt. Werner at 3220m MSL. The observations from SPL are used to determine mountain top cloud microphysical properties at elevations lower than the UWKA was able to sample in-situ. Comparisons showed that cloud microphysics aloft and at the surface were consistent with respect to snow growth processes while small crystal concentrations were routinely higher at the surface, suggesting ice nucleation near cloud base. The effects of aerosol concentrations and upwind stability on mountain top and downwind microphysics are considered.

  11. Progress in Representing Microphysical Processes in a Snow Growth Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erfani, Ehsan; Mitchell, David

    2015-04-01

    A steady-state snow growth model (SGM) has been developed based on the microphysical growth processes of vapor deposition, aggregation and riming. Climate models use mass-dimension (m-D) and area-dimension (A-D) power laws (e.g. m = αDβ) to formulate ice particle growth rates, however it is well known that the m-D and A-D power laws for the smallest ice particles differ considerably from the power laws for the largest particles. To overcome this problem, β and α are predicted as a function of diameter where the m-D expression is a 2nd-order polynomial in log-log space. By tailoring these m-D and A-D relationships to the SGM, ice particle growth rates and fall speeds are represented more accurately and realistically. The predicted size spectra by SGM are in good agreement with observed spectra from Colorado Airborne Mixed-Phase Cloud Study (CAMPS). Although ice particle riming often has little impact on ice particle size, its impact on ice particle mass and projected area can be considerable. A method is introduced to calculate rimed mass and area from unrimed mass and area, and from maximum mass and area that can be achieved by riming. The treatment for riming is explicit, accounting for the dependence of collision efficiency on droplet and ice particle size using both hydrodynamic theory and experimental measurements. It appears that the riming process is essential in characterizing the snowfall rates. Moreover, increase in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), due to aerosols, can modify cloud droplet SD (size distribution) and therefore decrease the snowfall rate. So, snowfall rate is sensitive to the shape of cloud droplet SD. It is speculated that by implementing the new m-D and A-D treatment, and riming growth in any climate model, the ice particle growth rates will become more accurate.

  12. The microphysics of collisionless shock waves.

    PubMed

    Marcowith, A; Bret, A; Bykov, A; Dieckman, M E; Drury, L O'C; Lembège, B; Lemoine, M; Morlino, G; Murphy, G; Pelletier, G; Plotnikov, I; Reville, B; Riquelme, M; Sironi, L; Novo, A Stockem

    2016-04-01

    Collisionless shocks, that is shocks mediated by electromagnetic processes, are customary in space physics and in astrophysics. They are to be found in a great variety of objects and environments: magnetospheric and heliospheric shocks, supernova remnants, pulsar winds and their nebulæ, active galactic nuclei, gamma-ray bursts and clusters of galaxies shock waves. Collisionless shock microphysics enters at different stages of shock formation, shock dynamics and particle energization and/or acceleration. It turns out that the shock phenomenon is a multi-scale non-linear problem in time and space. It is complexified by the impact due to high-energy cosmic rays in astrophysical environments. This review adresses the physics of shock formation, shock dynamics and particle acceleration based on a close examination of available multi-wavelength or in situ observations, analytical and numerical developments. A particular emphasis is made on the different instabilities triggered during the shock formation and in association with particle acceleration processes with regards to the properties of the background upstream medium. It appears that among the most important parameters the background magnetic field through the magnetization and its obliquity is the dominant one. The shock velocity that can reach relativistic speeds has also a strong impact over the development of the micro-instabilities and the fate of particle acceleration. Recent developments of laboratory shock experiments has started to bring some new insights in the physics of space plasma and astrophysical shock waves. A special section is dedicated to new laser plasma experiments probing shock physics. PMID:27007555

  13. The microphysics of collisionless shock waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcowith, A.; Bret, A.; Bykov, A.; Dieckman, M. E.; O'C Drury, L.; Lembège, B.; Lemoine, M.; Morlino, G.; Murphy, G.; Pelletier, G.; Plotnikov, I.; Reville, B.; Riquelme, M.; Sironi, L.; Stockem Novo, A.

    2016-04-01

    Collisionless shocks, that is shocks mediated by electromagnetic processes, are customary in space physics and in astrophysics. They are to be found in a great variety of objects and environments: magnetospheric and heliospheric shocks, supernova remnants, pulsar winds and their nebulæ, active galactic nuclei, gamma-ray bursts and clusters of galaxies shock waves. Collisionless shock microphysics enters at different stages of shock formation, shock dynamics and particle energization and/or acceleration. It turns out that the shock phenomenon is a multi-scale non-linear problem in time and space. It is complexified by the impact due to high-energy cosmic rays in astrophysical environments. This review adresses the physics of shock formation, shock dynamics and particle acceleration based on a close examination of available multi-wavelength or in situ observations, analytical and numerical developments. A particular emphasis is made on the different instabilities triggered during the shock formation and in association with particle acceleration processes with regards to the properties of the background upstream medium. It appears that among the most important parameters the background magnetic field through the magnetization and its obliquity is the dominant one. The shock velocity that can reach relativistic speeds has also a strong impact over the development of the micro-instabilities and the fate of particle acceleration. Recent developments of laboratory shock experiments has started to bring some new insights in the physics of space plasma and astrophysical shock waves. A special section is dedicated to new laser plasma experiments probing shock physics.

  14. Development and Application of Advanced Weather Prediction Technologies for the Wind Energy Industry (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahoney, W. P.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.; Myers, W.; Johnson, D.

    2010-12-01

    Wind energy decision makers are required to make critical judgments on a daily basis with regard to energy generation, distribution, demand, storage, and integration. Accurate knowledge of the present and future state of the atmosphere is vital in making these decisions. As wind energy portfolios expand, this forecast problem is taking on new urgency because wind forecast inaccuracies frequently lead to substantial economic losses and constrain the national expansion of renewable energy. Improved weather prediction and precise spatial analysis of small-scale weather events are crucial for renewable energy management. In early 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began a collaborative project with Xcel Energy Services, Inc. to perform research and develop technologies to improve Xcel Energy's ability to increase the amount of wind energy in their generation portfolio. The agreement and scope of work was designed to provide highly detailed, localized wind energy forecasts to enable Xcel Energy to more efficiently integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid. The wind prediction technologies are designed to help Xcel Energy operators make critical decisions about powering down traditional coal and natural gas-powered plants when sufficient wind energy is predicted. The wind prediction technologies have been designed to cover Xcel Energy wind resources spanning a region from Wisconsin to New Mexico. The goal of the project is not only to improve Xcel Energy’s wind energy prediction capabilities, but also to make technological advancements in wind and wind energy prediction, expand our knowledge of boundary layer meteorology, and share the results across the renewable energy industry. To generate wind energy forecasts, NCAR is incorporating observations of current atmospheric conditions from a variety of sources including satellites, aircraft, weather radars, ground-based weather stations, wind profilers, and even wind sensors on

  15. Effects of ice-phase cloud microphysics in simulating wintertime precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Jinwon; Cho, Han-Ru; Soong, Sy-Tzai

    1995-11-01

    We compare two numerical experiments to investigate the effects of ice-phase cloud microphysical processes on simulations of wintertime precipitation in the southwestern United States. Results of these simulations, one with and the other without ice-phase microphysics, suggest that an inclusion of ice-phase microphysics plays a crucial role in simulating wintertime precipitation. The simulation that employs both the ice and water-phase microphysics better reproduced the observed spatial distribution of precipitation compared to the one without ice-phase microphysics. The most significant effect of ice-phase microphysics appeared in local production of precipitating particles by collection processes, rather than in local condensation.

  16. 15-PGDH expression as a predictive factor response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in advanced gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Min; Li, Kai; Maskey, Ninu; Xu, Zhigao; Peng, ChunWei; Tian, Sufang; Li, Yan; Yang, Guifang

    2015-01-01

    Given the various clinical and pathologic responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) in gastric cancer (GC), potential biomarkers that reflecting the efficacy of NACT on GC should be investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate the 15-PGDH expression response to NACT in GC patients and its relationship with prognosis of GC. Immunohistochemical method was used to assess the level of 15-PGDH expression in 56 GC patients who received NACT before surgery and 46 patients who underwent surgical treatment without NACT as well as their corresponding adjacent non-neoplastic tissues. We found that there was no correlation of 15-PGDH expression between non-cancerous gastric tissues and GC tissues (P=0.519), while 15-PGDH expression level in NACT group was higher than that in nNACT group (P=0.015). In patients with NACT, the higher level of 15-PGDH expression was significantly associated with well-moderately differentiated grade (P=0.023), I/II stage (P=0.014) and with no lymph node metastasis (P=0.016). Moreover, statistically significant differences in overall survival (OS) were found among 15-PGDH expression (log-rank test, P<0.001) and TNM stage (log-rank test, P=0.032). Most importantly, expression of 15-PGDH was found to be an independent predictive factor by multivariate analysis (Hazard ratio (HR) 0.315 [0.120-0.827], P=0.019). These findings indicated that NACT could increase 15-PGDH expression in advanced GC patients, and 15-PGDH may serve as a candidate prognostic biomarker of advanced GC response to NACT. PMID:26261578

  17. Simulation of the recent evolution of stratospheric aerosols by the MOSTRA Simulation of the recent evolution of stratospheric aerosols by the MOSTRA microphysical/transport model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bingen, Christine; Errera, Quentin; Vanhellemont, Filip; Fussen, Didier; Mateshvili, Nina; Dekemper, Emmanuel; Loodts, Nicolas

    2010-05-01

    We present recent advances in the development of a microphysical/transport model for stratospheric aerosols, called MOdel for STRatospheric Aerosols (MOSTRA). MOSTRA is a 3D model describing the evolution in time and space of the stratospheric aerosol distribution described using a set of discrete size bins. The microphysical module used in this model makes use of the PSCBOX model developed by Larsen (2000). The transport module is based on the flux-form semi-Lagragian scheme by Lin and Rood (1996). The model structure will be presented with simulations of the evolution of the volcanic aerosol plume after recent volcanic eruptions. References: N. Larsen, Polar Stratospheric Clouds, Microphysical and optical models, Scientific Report 00-06, Danish Meteorological Institute, 2000 Lin, S.-J. Rood, R.B., Multidimensional Flux-Form Semi-Lagrangian Transport Schemes, Monthly Weather Review, 124, 2046-2070, 1996.

  18. The role of advanced reactive surface area characterization in improving predictions of mineral reaction rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckingham, L. E.; Zhang, S.; Mitnick, E.; Cole, D. R.; Yang, L.; Anovitz, L. M.; Sheets, J.; Swift, A.; Kneafsey, T. J.; Landrot, G.; Mito, S.; Xue, Z.; Steefel, C. I.; DePaolo, D. J.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.

    2014-12-01

    Geologic sequestration of CO2 in deep sedimentary formations is a promising means of mitigating carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants but the long-term fate of injected CO2 is challenging to predict. Reactive transport models are used to gain insight over long times but rely on laboratory determined mineral reaction rates that have been difficult to extrapolate to field systems. This, in part, is due to a lack of understanding of mineral reactive surface area. Many models use an arbitrary approximation of reactive surface area, applying orders of magnitude scaling factors to measured BET or geometric surface areas. Recently, a few more sophisticated approaches have used 2D and 3D image analyses to determine mineral-specific reactive surface areas that account for the accessibility of minerals. However, the ability of these advanced surface area estimates to improve predictions of mineral reaction rates has yet to be determined. In this study, we fuse X-ray microCT, SEM QEMSCAN, XRD, SANS, and SEM-FIB analysis to determine mineral-specific accessible reactive surface areas for a core sample from the Nagaoka pilot CO2 injection site (Japan). This sample is primarily quartz, plagioclase, smectite, K-feldspar, and pyroxene. SEM imaging shows abundant smectite cement and grain coatings that decrease the fluid accessibility of other minerals. However, analysis of FIB-SEM images reveals that smectite nano-pores are well connected such that access to underlying minerals is not occluded by smectite coatings. Mineral-specific accessible surfaces are determined, accounting for the connectivity of the pore space with and without connected smectite nano-pores. The large-scale impact of variations in accessibility and dissolution rates are then determined through continuum scale modeling using grid-cell specific information on accessible surface areas. This approach will be compared with a traditional continuum scale model using mineral abundances and common surface area

  19. The impact of hydrometeors on the microphysical parameterization in the WRF modelling system over southern peninsular India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ragi, A. R.; Sharan, Maithili; Haddad, Z. S.

    2016-05-01

    This study examines the influence of Purdue-Lin microphysical parameterization scheme (Lin et al.,1983) on quantitative precipitation for pre-monsoon/monsoon conditions over southern peninsular India in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. An ideal microphysical scheme has to describe the formation, growth of cloud droplets and ice crystals and fall out as precipitation. Microphysics schemes can be broadly categorized into two types: bin and bulk particle size distribution (Morrison, 2010). Bulk schemes predict one or more bulk quantities and assume some functional form for the particle size distribution. For better parameterization, proper interpretation of these hydrometeors (Cloud Droplets, Raindrops, Ice Crystals and Aggregates, Rimed Ice Particles, Graupel, Hail) and non-hydrometeors (Aerosols vs. Condensation Nuclei vs. Cloud Condensation Nuclei vs. Ice Nuclei) is very important. The Purdue-Lin scheme is a commonly used microphysics scheme in WRF model utilizing the "bulk" particle size distribution, meaning that a particle size distribution is assumed. The intercept parameter (N0) is, in fact, turns out to be independent of the density. However, in situ observations suggest (Haddad et al., 1996, 1997) that the mass weighted mean diameter is correlated with water content per unit volume (q), leading to the fact that N0 depends on it. Here, in order to analyze the correlation of droplet size distribution with the convection, we have carried out simulations by implementing a consistent methodology to enforce a correlation between N0 and q in the Purdue-Lin microphysics scheme in WRF model. The effect of particles in Indian Summer Monsoon has been examined using frequency distribution of rainfall at surface, daily rainfall over the domain and convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. The simulations are conducted by analyzing the maximum rainfall days in the pre-monsoon/monsoon seasons using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

  20. In-Service Design & Performance Prediction of Advanced Fusion Material Systems by Computational Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    G. R. Odette; G. E. Lucas

    2005-11-15

    This final report on "In-Service Design & Performance Prediction of Advanced Fusion Material Systems by Computational Modeling and Simulation" (DE-FG03-01ER54632) consists of a series of summaries of work that has been published, or presented at meetings, or both. It briefly describes results on the following topics: 1) A Transport and Fate Model for Helium and Helium Management; 2) Atomistic Studies of Point Defect Energetics, Dynamics and Interactions; 3) Multiscale Modeling of Fracture consisting of: 3a) A Micromechanical Model of the Master Curve (MC) Universal Fracture Toughness-Temperature Curve Relation, KJc(T - To), 3b) An Embrittlement DTo Prediction Model for the Irradiation Hardening Dominated Regime, 3c) Non-hardening Irradiation Assisted Thermal and Helium Embrittlement of 8Cr Tempered Martensitic Steels: Compilation and Analysis of Existing Data, 3d) A Model for the KJc(T) of a High Strength NFA MA957, 3e) Cracked Body Size and Geometry Effects of Measured and Effective Fracture Toughness-Model Based MC and To Evaluations of F82H and Eurofer 97, 3-f) Size and Geometry Effects on the Effective Toughness of Cracked Fusion Structures; 4) Modeling the Multiscale Mechanics of Flow Localization-Ductility Loss in Irradiation Damaged BCC Alloys; and 5) A Universal Relation Between Indentation Hardness and True Stress-Strain Constitutive Behavior. Further details can be found in the cited references or presentations that generally can be accessed on the internet, or provided upon request to the authors. Finally, it is noted that this effort was integrated with our base program in fusion materials, also funded by the DOE OFES.

  1. A numerical model of aerosol scavenging: Part 1, Microphysics parameterization

    SciTech Connect

    Molenkamp, C.R.; Bradley, M.M.

    1991-09-01

    We have developed a three-dimensional numerical model (OCTET) to simulate the dynamics and microphysics of clouds and the transport, diffusion and precipitation scavenging of aerosol particles. In this paper we describe the cloud microphysics and scavenging parameterizations. The representation of cloud microphysics is a bulk- water parameterization which includes water vapor and five types of hydrometeors (cloud droplets, rain drops, ice crystals, snow, and graupel). A parallel parameterization represents the scavenging interactions between pollutant particles and hydrometeors including collection of particles because of condensation nucleation, Brownian and phoretic attachment, and inertial capture, resuspension because of evaporation and sublimation; and transfer interactions where particles collected by one type of hydrometeor are transferred to another type of freezing, melting, accretion, riming and autoconversion.

  2. Cloud Processed CCN Affect Cloud Microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudson, J. G.; Noble, S. R., Jr.; Tabor, S. S.

    2015-12-01

    Variations in the bimodality/monomodality of CCN spectra (Hudson et al. 2015) exert opposite effects on cloud microphysics in two aircraft field projects. The figure shows two examples, droplet concentration, Nc, and drizzle liquid water content, Ld, against classification of CCN spectral modality. Low ratings go to balanced separated bimodal spectra, high ratings go to single mode spectra, strictly monomodal 8. Intermediate ratings go merged modes, e.g., one mode a shoulder of another. Bimodality is caused by mass or hygroscopicity increases that go only to CCN that made activated cloud droplets. In the Ice in Clouds Experiment-Tropical (ICE-T) small cumuli with lower Nc, greater droplet mean diameters, MD, effective radii, re, spectral widths, σ, cloud liquid water contents, Lc, and Ld were closer to more bimodal (lower modal ratings) below cloud CCN spectra whereas clouds with higher Nc, smaller MD, re, σ, and Ld were closer to more monomodal CCN (higher modal ratings). In polluted stratus clouds of the MArine Stratus/Stratocumulus Experiment (MASE) clouds that had greater Nc, and smaller MD, re, σ, Lc, and Ld were closer to more bimodal CCN spectra whereas clouds with lower Nc, and greater MD, re, σ, Lc, and Ld were closer to more monomodal CCN. These relationships are opposite because the dominant ICE-T cloud processing was coalescence whereas chemical transformations (e.g., SO2 to SO4) were dominant in MASE. Coalescence reduces Nc and thus also CCN concentrations (NCCN) when droplets evaporate. In subsequent clouds the reduced competition increases MD and σ, which further enhance coalescence and drizzle. Chemical transformations do not change Nc but added sulfate enhances droplet and CCN solubility. Thus, lower critical supersaturation (S) CCN can produce more cloud droplets in subsequent cloud cycles, especially for the low W and effective S of stratus. The increased competition reduces MD, re, and σ, which inhibit coalescence and thus reduce drizzle

  3. Predictive value of serum medroxyprogesterone acetate concentration for response in advanced or recurrent breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Nishimura, R; Nagao, K; Matsuda, M; Baba, K; Matsuoka, Y; Yamashita, H; Fukuda, M; Higuchi, A; Ikeda, K

    1997-08-01

    Medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) is one of the most commonly prescribed drugs for endocrine therapy of metastatic breast cancer. In this study, the serum MPA concentration was measured by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and evaluated for its usefulness in predicting the response in 79 cases of advanced or recurrent breast cancers. Overall, 29 patients (37%) achieved an objective response. The response rate correlated significantly with the oestrogen receptor (ER) status (P = 0.03), proliferative activity determined by DNA polymerase alpha (P = 0.04), the disease-free interval (DFI) (P = 0.05) and the serum MPA concentration (P < 0.001). Patients with ER-positive tumours, lower proliferative activity, a longer (DFI) or a higher serum MPA concentration responded more frequently. The mean serum MPA concentration in the responders with ER-positive tumours (P = 0.01) or tumours with a lower proliferative activity (P = 0.008) were significantly lower than in cases with ER-negative tumours or tumours with a higher proliferative activity, respectively. Cases with soft tissue metastases showed responses at significantly lower MPA concentrations (P = 0.003) than those with bone or visceral metastases. Furthermore, there was a dramatic decrease in the MPA concentration when a responder with a high concentration became unresponsive to the therapy. Thus, the serum MPA concentration is a determining factor for the response to treatment. PMID:9337682

  4. Methodological advances in predicting flow-induced dynamics of plants using mechanical-engineering theory.

    PubMed

    de Langre, Emmanuel

    2012-03-15

    The modeling of fluid-structure interactions, such as flow-induced vibrations, is a well-developed field of mechanical engineering. Many methods exist, and it seems natural to apply them to model the behavior of plants, and potentially other cantilever-like biological structures, under flow. Overcoming this disciplinary divide, and the application of such models to biological systems, will significantly advance our understanding of ecological patterns and processes and improve our predictive capabilities. Nonetheless, several methodological issues must first be addressed, which I describe here using two practical examples that have strong similarities: one from agricultural sciences and the other from nuclear engineering. Very similar issues arise in both: individual and collective behavior, small and large space and time scales, porous modeling, standard and extreme events, trade-off between the surface of exchange and individual or collective risk of damage, variability, hostile environments and, in some aspects, evolution. The conclusion is that, although similar issues do exist, which need to be exploited in some detail, there is a significant gap that requires new developments. It is obvious that living plants grow in and adapt to their environment, which certainly makes plant biomechanics fundamentally distinct from classical mechanical engineering. Moreover, the selection processes in biology and in human engineering are truly different, making the issue of safety different as well. A thorough understanding of these similarities and differences is needed to work efficiently in the application of a mechanistic approach to ecology. PMID:22357585

  5. A Priori Attitudes Predict Amniocentesis Uptake in Women of Advanced Maternal Age: A Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Grinshpun-Cohen, Julia; Miron-Shatz, Talya; Rhee-Morris, Laila; Briscoe, Barbara; Pras, Elon; Towner, Dena

    2015-01-01

    Amniocentesis is an invasive procedure performed during pregnancy to determine, among other things, whether the fetus has Down syndrome. It is often preceded by screening, which gives a probabilistic risk assessment. Thus, ample information is conveyed to women with the goal to inform their decisions. This study examined the factors that predict amniocentesis uptake among pregnant women of advanced maternal age (older than 35 years old at the time of childbirth). Participants filled out a questionnaire regarding risk estimates, demographics, and attitudes on screening and pregnancy termination before their first genetic counseling appointment and were followed up to 24 weeks of gestation. Findings show that women's decisions are not always informed by screening results or having a medical indication. Psychological factors measured at the beginning of pregnancy: amniocentesis risk tolerance, pregnancy termination tolerance, and age risk perception affected amniocentesis uptake. Although most women thought that screening for Down syndrome risk would inform their decision, they later stated other reasons for screening, such as preparing for the possibility of a child with special needs. Findings suggest that women's decisions regarding amniocentesis are driven not only by medical factors, but also by a priori attitudes. The authors believe that these should be addressed in the dialogue on women's informed use of prenatal tests. PMID:26065331

  6. A Microphysical Model of CO_2 Snow on Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, S. E.; Richardson, M. I.; Paige, D. A.

    1996-09-01

    Atmospheric condensation of CO_2 is a critical but poorly understood part of the Martian seasonal CO_2 cycle. During polar night, the latent heat released by CO_2 condensation is the major heat source, and CO2 clouds can substantially reduce the infrared emission from the condensing seasonal CO_2 polar cap. The CO_2 snow which precipitates from the atmosphere may also help determine the radiative and physical characteristics of the seasonal CO_2 polar caps, depending on the relative amount of condensation which takes place in the atmosphere. Previous models of atmospheric CO_2 condensation on Mars have not taken into account the finite rates of nucleation, growth, and sedimentation, or the radiative effects of the CO_2 clouds themselves, and their results may be inconsistent with available data. In order to address these issues, we have developed a one-dimensional model of the growth and precipitation of CO_2 snow in the polar night atmosphere of Mars. The model includes a realistic treatment of the microphysical processes of heat and mass transfer in both the continuum and free molecular regimes, as well as the transition region. We have also taken into account surface kinetics, or the finite rate at which molecules can be incorporated into the crystal lattice. We will present model calculations of snow particle growth and sedimentation rates for different values of atmospheric supersaturation and nucleation height. These results are compared with Viking IRTM observations to place constraints on the amount of atmospheric condensation. We will also present predictions of what TES and MOLA will see on Mars Global Surveyor.

  7. APPLICATION OF ADVANCED IN VITRO TECHNIQUES TO MEASURE, UNDERSTAND AND PREDICT THE KINETICS AND MECHANISMS OF XENOBIOTIC METABOLISM

    EPA Science Inventory

    We have developed a research program in metabolism that involves numerous collaborators across EPA as well as other federal and academic labs. A primary goal is to develop and apply advanced in vitro techniques to measure, understand and predict the kinetics and mechanisms of xen...

  8. A risk score for the prediction of advanced age-related macular degeneration: Development and validation in 2 prospective cohorts

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We aimed to develop an eye specific model which used readily available information to predict risk for advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We used the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) as our training dataset, which consisted of the 4,507 participants (contributing 1,185 affected v...

  9. Evidence of Mineral Dust Altering Cloud Microphysics and Precipitation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Min, Qilong; Li, Rui; Lin, Bing; Joseph, Everette; Wang, Shuyu; Hu, Yongxiang; Morris, Vernon; Chang, F.

    2008-01-01

    Multi-platform and multi-sensor observations are employed to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in mesoscale convective systems. It is clearly evident that for a given convection strength,small hydrometeors were more prevalent in the stratiform rain regions with dust than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust sector, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation process of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of precipitation. The consequences of the microphysical effects of the dust aerosols were to shift the precipitation size spectrum from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately suppressing precipitation.

  10. Development of Computational Capabilities to Predict the Corrosion Wastage of Boiler Tubes in Advanced Combustion Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Kung, Steven; Rapp, Robert

    2014-08-31

    coal-fired boilers resulting from the coexistence of sulfur and chlorine in the fuel. A new corrosion mechanism, i.e., “Active Sulfidation Corrosion Mechanism,” has been proposed to account for the accelerated corrosion wastage observed on the furnace walls of utility boilers burning coals containing sulfur and chlorine. In addition, a second corrosion mechanism, i.e., “Active Sulfide-to-Oxide Corrosion Mechanism,” has been identified to account for the rapid corrosion attack on superheaters and reheaters. Both of the newly discovered corrosion mechanisms involve the formation of iron chloride (FeCl2) vapor from iron sulfide (FeS) and HCl, followed by the decomposition of FeCl2 via self-sustaining cycling reactions. For higher alloys containing sufficient chromium, the attack on superheaters and reheaters is dominated by Hot Corrosion in the presence of a fused salt. Furthermore, two stages of the hot corrosion mechanism have been identified and characterized in detail. The initiation of hot corrosion attack induced by molten sulfate leads to Stage 1 “acidic” fluxing and re-precipitation of the protective scale formed initially on the deposit-covered alloy surfaces. Once the protective scale is penetrated, Stage 2 Hot Corrosion is initiated, which is dominated by “basic” fluxing and re-precipitation of the scale in the fused salt. Based on the extensive corrosion information generated from this project, corrosion modeling was performed using non-linear regression analysis. As a result of the modeling efforts, two predictive equations have been formulated, one for furnace walls and the other for superheaters and reheaters. These first-of-the-kind equations can be used to estimate the corrosion rates of boiler tubes based on coal chemistry, alloy compositions, and boiler operating conditions for advanced boiler systems.

  11. Factors Affecting the Evolution of Hurricane Erin and the Distributions of Hydrometeors: Role of Microphysical Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McFarquhar, Greg M.; Zhang, Henian; Dudhia, Jimy; Halverson, Jeffrey B.; Heymsfield, Gerald; Hood, Robbie; Marks, Frank, Jr.

    2003-01-01

    Fine-resolution simulations of Hurricane Erin 2001 are conducted using the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model version 3.5 to investigate the role of thermodynamic, boundary layer and microphysical processes in Erin's growth and maintenance, and their effects on the horizontal and vertical distributions of hydrometeors. Through comparison against radar, radiometer, and dropsonde data collected during the Convection and Moisture Experiment 4, it is seen that realistic simulations of Erin are obtained provided that fine resolution simulations with detailed representations of physical processes are conducted. The principle findings of the study are as follows: 1) a new iterative condensation scheme, which limits the unphysical increase of equivalent potential temperature associated with most condensation schemes, increases the horizontal size of the hurricane, decreases its maximum rainfall rate, reduces its intensity, and makes its eye more moist; 2) in general, microphysical parameterization schemes with more categories of hydrometeors produce more intense hurricanes, larger hydrometeor mixing ratios, and more intense updrafts and downdrafts; 3) the choice of coefficients describing hydrometeor fall velocities has as big of an impact on the hurricane simulations as does choice of microphysical parameterization scheme with no clear relationship between fall velocity and hurricane intensity; and 4) in order for a tropical cyclone to adequately intensify, an advanced boundary layer scheme (e.g., Burk-Thompson scheme) must be used to represent boundary layer processes. The impacts of varying simulations on the horizontal and vertical distributions of different categories of hydrometeor species, on equivalent potential temperature, and on storm updrafts and downdrafts are examined to determine how the release of latent heat feedbacks upon the structure of Erin. In general, all simulations tend to overpredict precipitation rate

  12. Analyzing numerics of bulk microphysics schemes in community models: warm rain processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sednev, I.; Menon, S.

    2012-08-01

    Implementation of bulk cloud microphysics (BLK) parameterizations in atmospheric models of different scales has gained momentum in the last two decades. Utilization of these parameterizations in cloud-resolving models when timesteps used for the host model integration are a few seconds or less is justified from the point of view of cloud physics. However, mechanistic extrapolation of the applicability of BLK schemes to the regional or global scales and the utilization of timesteps of hundreds up to thousands of seconds affect both physics and numerics. We focus on the mathematical aspects of BLK schemes, such as stability and positive-definiteness. We provide a strict mathematical definition for the problem of warm rain formation. We also derive a general analytical condition (SM-criterion) that remains valid regardless of parameterizations for warm rain processes in an explicit Eulerian time integration framework used to advanced finite-difference equations, which govern warm rain formation processes in microphysics packages in the Community Atmosphere Model and the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The SM-criterion allows for the existence of a unique positive-definite stable mass-conserving numerical solution, imposes an additional constraint on the timestep permitted due to the microphysics (like the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy condition for the advection equation), and prohibits use of any additional assumptions not included in the strict mathematical definition of the problem under consideration. By analyzing the numerics of warm rain processes in source codes of BLK schemes implemented in community models we provide general guidelines regarding the appropriate choice of time steps in these models.

  13. The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOX Production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carey, Lawrence; Koshak, William; Peterson, Harold; Matthee, Retha; Bain, A. Lamont

    2014-01-01

    The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TM) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell

  14. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  15. Advanced MRI may complement histological diagnosis of lower grade gliomas and help in predicting survival.

    PubMed

    Cuccarini, Valeria; Erbetta, A; Farinotti, M; Cuppini, L; Ghielmetti, F; Pollo, B; Di Meco, F; Grisoli, M; Filippini, G; Finocchiaro, G; Bruzzone, M G; Eoli, M

    2016-01-01

    MRI grading of grade II and III gliomas may have an important impact on treatment decisions. Occasionally,both conventional MRI (cMRI) and histology fail to clearly establish the tumour grade. Three cMRI features(no necrosis; no relevant oedema; absent or faint contrast enhancement) previously validated in 196 patients with supratentorial gliomas directed our selection of 68 suspected low-grade gliomas (LGG) that were also investigated by advanced MRI (aMRI), including perfusion weighted imaging (PWI), diffusion weighted imaging(DWI) and spectroscopy. All the gliomas had histopathological diagnoses. Sensitivity and specificity of cMRI preoperative diagnosis were 78.5 and 38.5 %, respectively, and 85.7 and 53.8 % when a MRI was included, respectively. ROC analysis showed that cut-off values of 1.29 for maximum rCBV, 1.69 for minimum rADC, 2.1 for rCho/Cr ratio could differentiate between LGG and HGG with a sensitivity of 61.5, 53.8, and 53.8 % and a specificity of 54.7, 43 and 64.3 %, respectively. A significantly longer OS was observed in patients with a maximum rCBV<1.46 and minimum rADC>1.69 (80 vs 55 months, p = 0.01; 80 vs 51 months, p = 0.002, respectively). This result was also confirmed when cases were stratified according to pathology (LGG vs HGG). The ability of a MRI to differentiate between LGG and HGG and to predict survival improved as the number of a MRI techniques considered increased. In a selected population of suspected LGG,classification by cMRI underestimated the actual fraction of HGG. aMRI slightly increased the diagnostic accuracy compared to histopathology. However, DWI and PWI were prognostic markers independent of histological grade. PMID:26468137

  16. Testing of Cloud Microphysics Scheme with Snow Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn Jong; Matsui, Toshihisa; Hou, Arthur; Lang, Stephen; Cifelli, Robert; Peters-Lidar, C.; Jackson, Gail; Rutledge, Steve; Petersen, Walter

    2008-01-01

    One of the grand challenges of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is to improve precipitation measurements in mid- and high-latitudes during cold seasons through the use of high-frequency passive microwave radiometry. For this, the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model with the Goddard microphysics scheme is coupled with the Satellite Data Simulation Unit (WRF-SDSU) that has been developed to facilitate the over-snowfall retrieval algorithm by providing virtual cloud library and microwave brightness temperature (To) measurements consistent to the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI). This study tested the Goddard cloud microphysics scheme in WRF in snowstorm events (January 20-22, 2007) over the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) site up in Ontario, Canada. In this meeting, we will present the performance of the Goddard cloud microphysics scheme both with 2ice (ice and snow) and 3ice (ice, snow and graupel) as well as other WRF microphysics schemes. Results will be compared with the King Radar data. We will also use the WRF model outputs to drive the Goddard SDSU to calculate radiances and backscattering signals consistent to satellite direct observations. These simulated radiance are evaluated against the measurement from A-Train satellites.

  17. Cirrus microphysics and radiative transfer: A case study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kinne, Stefan A.; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Heymsfield, Andrew J.

    1990-01-01

    During the Cirrus Intensive Field Operations of FIRE, data collected by the NCAR King Air in the vicinity of Wausau, WI on October 28 were selected to study the influence of cirrus cloud microphysics on radiative transfer and the role of microphysical approximations in radiative transfer models. The instrumentation of the King Air provided, aside from temperature and wind data, up-and downwelling broadband solar and infrared fluxes as well as detailed microphysical data. The aircraft data, supplied every second, are averaged over the 7 legs to represent the properties for that altitude. The resulting vertical profiles, however, suffer from the fact that each leg represents a different cloud column path. Based on the measured microphysical data particle size distributions of equivalent spheres for each cloud level are developed. Accurate radiative transfer calculations are performed, incorporating atmospheric and radiative data from the ground and the stratosphere. Comparing calculated to the measured up- and downwelling fluxes at the seven cloud levels for both the averaged and the three crossover data will help to assess the validity of particle size and shape approximation as they are frequently used to model cirrus clouds. Once agreement is achieved the model results may be applied to determine, in comparison to a cloudfree case, the influence of this particular cirrus on the radiation budget of the earth atmosphere system.

  18. Cloud Microphysics Budget in the Tropical Deep Convective Regime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Xiao-Fan; Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Cloud microphysics budgets in the tropical deep convective regime are analyzed based on a 2-D cloud resolving simulation. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind and large-scale horizontal advections derived from TOGA COARE for a 20-day period. The role of cloud microphysics is first examined by analyzing mass-weighted mean heat budget and column-integrated moisture budget. Hourly budgets show that local changes of mass-weighted mean temperature and column-integrated moisture are mainly determined by the residuals between vertical thermal advection and latent heat of condensation and between vertical moisture advection and condensation respectively. Thus, atmospheric thermodynamics depends on how cloud microphysical processes are parameterized. Cloud microphysics budgets are then analyzed for raining conditions. For cloud-vapor exchange between cloud system and its embedded environment, rainfall and evaporation of raindrop are compensated by the condensation and deposition of supersaturated vapor. Inside the cloud system, the condensation of supersaturated vapor balances conversion from cloud water to raindrop, snow, and graupel through collection and accretion processes. The deposition of supersaturated vapor balances conversion from cloud ice to snow through conversion and riming processes. The conversion and riming of cloud ice and the accretion of cloud water balance conversion from snow to graupel through accretion process. Finally, the collection of cloud water and the melting of graupel increase raindrop to compensate the loss of raindrop due to rainfall and the evaporation of raindrop.

  19. Indian summer monsoon precipitating clouds: role of microphysical process rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Pokhrel, Samir; Saha, Subodh K.

    2016-04-01

    The budget analysis of microphysical process rates based on Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) products are presented in the study. The relative importance of different microphysical process rates, which is crucial for GCMs, is investigated. The autoconversion and accretion processes are found to be vital for Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). The map-to-map correlations are examined between observed precipitation and MERRA reanalysis. The pattern correlations connote the fidelity of the MERRA datasets used here. Results of other microphysical parameters (e.g. ice water content from CloudSat, high cloud fraction from CALIPSO and MODIS, latent heating from TRMM, cloud ice mixing ratio from MERRA) are presented in this study. The tropospheric temperature from reanalysis product of MERRA and NCEP are also analyzed. Furthermore, the linkages between cloud microphysics production rates and dynamics, which are important for North-South tropospheric temperature gradient for maintaining the ISM circulation, are also discussed. The study demonstrates the microphysical process rates, which are actually responsible for the cloud hydrometeors and precipitation formation on the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations timescale. Cloud to rain water auto-conversion and snow accretion rates are the dominant processes followed by the rain accretion. All these tendency terms replicates the similar spatial patterns as that of precipitation. The quantification of microphysical process rates and precipitation over different regions are shown here. The freezing rate is also imperative for the formation of cloud ice as revealed by the observation. Freezing rates at upper level and snow accretion at middle level may have effect on latent heating release. Further it can modulate the north-south temperature gradient which can influence the large-scale monsoon dynamics. The rain water evaporation is also considered as a key aspect for controlling the low level

  20. Aerosols-Cloud-Microphysics Interactions in Tropical Cyclone Earl

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luna-Cruz, Yaitza

    Aerosols-cloud-microphysical processes are largely unknown in their influence on tropical cyclone evolution and intensification; aerosols possess the largest uncertainty. For example: What is the link between aerosols and cloud microphysics quantities? How efficient are the aerosols (i.e. dust from the Saharan Air Layer -SAL) as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN)? Does aerosols affect the vertical velocity, precipitation rates, cloud structure and lifetime? What are the dominant factors and in which sectors of the tropical cyclone? To address some of the questions in-situ microphysics measurements from the NASA DC-8 aircraft were obtained during the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) 2010 field campaign. A total of four named storms (Earl, Gaston, Karl and Mathew) were sampled. Earl presented the excellent opportunity to study aerosols-cloud-microphysics interactions because Saharan dust was present and it underwent rapid intensification. This thesis seeks to explore hurricane Earl to develop a better understanding of the relationship between the SAL aerosols and cloud microphysics evolution. To assist in the interpretation of the microphysics observations, high resolution numerical simulations of hurricane Earl were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with the new Aerosol-Aware bulk microphysics scheme. This new version of Thompson scheme includes explicit activation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) from a major CCN source (i.e. sulfates and sea salt) and explicit ice nucleation (IN) from mineral dust. Three simulations are performed: (1) the Control case with the old Thompson scheme and initial conditions from GFS model, (2) the Aerosol-Aware first baseline case with GOCART aerosol module as an input conditions, and (3) the Aerosol-Aware increase case in which the GOCART aerosols concentrations were increased significantly. Overall, results of model simulations along with aircraft observations

  1. Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, J.; Baker, D.; Braun, S.; Chou, M.-D.; Ferrier, B.; Johnson, D.; Khain, A.; Lang, S.; Lynn, B.

    2001-01-01

    The response of cloud systems to their environment is an important link in a chain of processes responsible for monsoons, frontal depression, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes and other climate variations (e.g., 30-60 day intra-seasonal oscillations). Numerical models of cloud properties provide essential insights into the interactions of clouds with each other, with their surroundings, and with land and ocean surfaces. Significant advances are currently being made in the modeling of rainfall and rain-related cloud processes, ranging in scales from the very small up to the simulation of an extensive population of raining cumulus clouds in a tropical- or midlatitude-storm environment. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a multi-dimensional nonhydrostatic dynamic/microphysical cloud resolving model. It has been used to simulate many different mesoscale convective systems that occurred in various geographic locations. In this paper, recent GCE model improvements (microphysics, radiation and surface processes) will be described as well as their impact on the development of precipitation events from various geographic locations. The performance of these new physical processes will be examined by comparing the model results with observations. In addition, the explicit interactive processes between cloud, radiation and surface processes will be discussed.

  2. Microphysical sensitivities of cloud-resolving model simulations of KWAJEX

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blossey, P. N.; Bretherton, C. S.

    2005-05-01

    Cloud-resolving model simulations of the conditions around Kwajalein Island during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX), July 24--September 15, 1999, are performed to understand the sensitivities of the results to changes in the model's microphysics and radiation parameterizations. An extensive set of observations were collected during KWAJEX, including high quality estimates of precipitation by an S-band ground validation radar. Large-scale forcings for the simulations --- which use cyclic boundary conditions --- have been derived from the observations by Minghua Zhang. The cloud-resolving model used here is the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM), developed by Marat Khairoutdinov at Colorado State University, to which the authors have added a second microphysical package (Fu et al 1995) and radiation scheme (from CAM3.0). While the alternate microphysics represents all hydrometeor interactions and has prognostic equations for water vapor, rain, snow, graupel, cloud water and cloud ice, SAM's default microphysics uses temperature to partition the condensate and precipitate among the phases and has prognostic equations only for total water (vapor+cloud) and precipitating water. The simulations are able to track the observed conditions over the full 52 day period without nudging. The different versions of the model generally reproduce the observed precipitation rate, temperature and relative humidity profiles, with mean temperature biases of less than 2K below the tropopause. However, detailed comparisons of simulated ISCCP cloud amounts and radar reflectivities with observations from ISCCP and the ground validation radar reveal important differences that are also reflected in the top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes. Such discrepancies are strongest in the suppressed periods during KWAJEX, and these are explored in detail to reveal factors that contribute to model biases. The different microphysical and radiation

  3. Vertical profile of fog microphysics : a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burnet, Frédéric; Brilouet, Pierre-Etienne; Mazoyer, Marie; Bourrianne, Thierry; Etcheberry, Jean-Michel; Gaillard, Brigitte; Legain, Dominique; Tzanos, Diane; Barrié, Joel; Barrau, Sébastien; Defoy, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    The occurrence and development of fogs result from the non-linear interaction of competing radiative, thermodynamic, microphysical and dynamical processes and the forecasting of their life cycle still remains a challenging issue. Several field campaigns have been carried out at the SIRTA observatory in the Paris suburb area (France). These experiments have shown that fog events exhibit large differences of the microphysical properties and various evolutions during their life cycle. To better understand relationships between the different processes and to validate numerical simulations it is necessary however to document the vertical profile of the fog microphysics. A CDP (Cloud Droplet Spectrometer) from DMT (Droplet Measurement Technology, Boulder, CO) has been modified to allow measurements of the droplet size distribution in fog layers with a tethered balloon. This instrumental set-up has been used during a field campaign during the winter 2013-214 in the Landes area in the South West of France. To validate the vertical profiles provided by the modified CDP, a mast was equipped with microphysical instruments at 2 altitude levels with an another CDP at 24 m and a Fog Monitor FM100 at 42 m. The instrumental set-up deployed during this campaign is presented. Data collected during a fog event that occurred during the night of 5-6 March 2014 are analysed. We show that microphysical properties such as droplet number concentration, LWC and mean droplet size, exhibit different time evolution during the fog life cycle depending on the altitude level. Droplet size distribution measurements are also investigated. They reveal sharp variations along the vertical close to the top of the fog layer. In addition it is shown that the shape of the size distributions at the top follows a time evolution typical of a quasi-adiabatic droplet growth.

  4. HOTAIR is a predictive and prognostic biomarker for patients with advanced gastric adenocarcinoma receiving fluorouracil and platinum combination chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Wei; Dong, Shuang; Duan, Bensong; Chen, Ping; Shi, Lei; Gao, Hengjun; Qi, Haizhi

    2015-01-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests that long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) HOTAIR participates in many types of cancer such as gastric cancer and may confer malignant phenotype to tumor cells. Fluorouracil and platinum combination chemotherapy is the first line therapy for gastric cancer. However, it is still unknown whether HOTAIR influences the outcome of cancer patients treated with chemotherapy. This study aimed to evaluate the association of HOTAIR expression with the prognosis of patients with advanced gastric adenocarcinoma (GA) receiving fluorouracil and platinum based chemotherapy. We examined the levels of HOTAIR in 168 GA samples using quantitative real-time PCR and analyzed its relationship with clinical features and prognosis of patients with advanced GA treated with fluorouracil and platinum based chemotherapy. Compared with paracancerous tissues, HOTAIR was significantly upregulated in GA tissues, especially in more advanced cases. High HOTAIR expression was an independent poor prognostic factor for patients with advanced GA. Further stratification analyses revealed that the association between HOTAIR expression and survival in patients with advanced GA remained significant in the subgroup of patients with TNM stages IIIA and IIIB, poorly differentiated, and smaller tumors. In conclusion, our results provide first evidence that HOTAIR may be served as a biomarker that predicts which patient with advanced GA will benefit from fluorouracil and platinum combination chemotherapy. PMID:26328013

  5. Predicting Advanced Placement Examination Success from FCAT Scores. Research Brief. Volume 0709

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Froman, Terry; Brown, Shelly; Tirado, Arleti

    2008-01-01

    Advanced Placement courses are offered at M-DCPS for students to acquire college credit or advanced college academic standing. A system has been developed in the past by the College Board to use the PSAT for 10th grade students to estimate their potential for AP Examination success. The same test has recently been applied in this district to 9th…

  6. Predicting Violence Among Forensic-Correctional Populations: The Past 2 Decades of Advancements and Future Endeavors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loza, Wagdy; Dhaliwal, Gurmeet K.

    2005-01-01

    Research on violence prediction during the past 2 decades has evolved appreciably in terms of depicting determinants of violence and developing psychometrically sound actuarial measures to predict the probability of future violent behavior. This article provides a brief synopsis of information on predicting violence gained in the past 2 decades,…

  7. Predicted reliability of aerospace electronics: Application of two advanced probabilistic concepts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suhir, E.

    Two advanced probabilistic design-for-reliability (PDfR) concepts are addressed and discussed in application to the prediction, quantification and assurance of the aerospace electronics reliability: 1) Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) model, which is an extension of the currently widely used Arrhenius model and, in combination with the exponential law of reliability, enables one to obtain a simple, easy-to-use and physically meaningful formula for the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF) of a material or a device after the given time in operation at the given temperature and under the given stress (not necessarily mechanical), and 2) Extreme Value Distribution (EVD) technique that can be used to assess the number of repetitive loadings that result in the material/device degradation and eventually lead to its failure by closing, in a step-wise fashion, the gap between the bearing capacity (stress-free activation energy) of the material or the device and the demand (loading). It is shown that the material degradation (aging, damage accumulation, flaw propagation, etc.) can be viewed, when BAZ model is considered, as a Markovian process, and that the BAZ model can be obtained as the ultimate steady-state solution to the well-known Fokker-Planck equation in the theory of Markovian processes. It is shown also that the BAZ model addresses the worst, but a reasonably conservative, situation. It is suggested therefore that the transient period preceding the condition addressed by the steady-state BAZ model need not be accounted for in engineering evaluations. However, when there is an interest in understanding the transient degradation process, the obtained solution to the Fokker-Planck equation can be used for this purpose. As to the EVD concept, it attributes the degradation process to the accumulation of damages caused by a train of repetitive high-level loadings, while loadings of levels that are considerably lower than their extreme values do not contribute

  8. Assimilation of Dual-Polarimetric Radar Observations with WRF 3DVAR and its Impact on Ice Microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, X.; Mecikalski, J. R.; Fehnel, T.; Posselt, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    Studies have shown that radar data assimilation can help with short-term prediction of convective weather by providing more accurate initial condition. However, it remains a big challenge to accurately describe the moist convective processes, especially the ice microphysics of convection, which is crucial for the modeling of quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). Dual-polarimetric (dual-pol) radar typically transmits both horizontally and vertically polarized radio wave pulses. From the two different reflected power returns, information on the type, shape, size, and orientation of cloud and precipitation microphysical particles are obtained, more accurate measurement of liquid and solid cloud and precipitation particles can be provided. The assimilation of dual-pol radar data is however, challenging work as few guidelines have been provided on dual-pol radar data assimilation research. It is our goal to examine how to use dual-pol radar data to improve forecast initialization for microphysical properties. This presentation will demonstrate our recent work on developing the forward operators for ice processes with assimilating dual-pol radar data for real case storms. In this study, high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system are used for real convective storms. Our recent research explores the use of the horizontal reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), specific differential phase (KDP), and radial velocity (VR) data for initializing convective storms and snowfall events, with a significant focus on improving representation of ice hydrometeors. Our previous research indicated that the use of ZDR can bring additional benefit into the hydrometeor fields than the use of ZH only. Furthermore, the combination of KDP and ZDR data provide the best initialization for precipitation particles with warm-rain radar data assimilation. Our ongoing work includes the development of

  9. Prediction of helicopter rotor discrete frequency noise: A computer program incorporating realistic blade motions and advanced acoustic formulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brentner, K. S.

    1986-01-01

    A computer program has been developed at the Langley Research Center to predict the discrete frequency noise of conventional and advanced helicopter rotors. The program, called WOPWOP, uses the most advanced subsonic formulation of Farassat that is less sensitive to errors and is valid for nearly all helicopter rotor geometries and flight conditions. A brief derivation of the acoustic formulation is presented along with a discussion of the numerical implementation of the formulation. The computer program uses realistic helicopter blade motion and aerodynamic loadings, input by the user, for noise calculation in the time domain. A detailed definition of all the input variables, default values, and output data is included. A comparison with experimental data shows good agreement between prediction and experiment; however, accurate aerodynamic loading is needed.

  10. Gene Expression Profile for Predicting Survival in Advanced-Stage Serous Ovarian Cancer Across Two Independent Datasets

    PubMed Central

    Yoshihara, Kosuke; Tajima, Atsushi; Yahata, Tetsuro; Kodama, Shoji; Fujiwara, Hiroyuki; Suzuki, Mitsuaki; Onishi, Yoshitaka; Hatae, Masayuki; Sueyoshi, Kazunobu; Fujiwara, Hisaya; Kudo, Yoshiki; Kotera, Kohei; Masuzaki, Hideaki; Tashiro, Hironori; Katabuchi, Hidetaka; Inoue, Ituro; Tanaka, Kenichi

    2010-01-01

    Background Advanced-stage ovarian cancer patients are generally treated with platinum/taxane-based chemotherapy after primary debulking surgery. However, there is a wide range of outcomes for individual patients. Therefore, the clinicopathological factors alone are insufficient for predicting prognosis. Our aim is to identify a progression-free survival (PFS)-related molecular profile for predicting survival of patients with advanced-stage serous ovarian cancer. Methodology/Principal Findings Advanced-stage serous ovarian cancer tissues from 110 Japanese patients who underwent primary surgery and platinum/taxane-based chemotherapy were profiled using oligonucleotide microarrays. We selected 88 PFS-related genes by a univariate Cox model (p<0.01) and generated the prognostic index based on 88 PFS-related genes after adjustment of regression coefficients of the respective genes by ridge regression Cox model using 10-fold cross-validation. The prognostic index was independently associated with PFS time compared to other clinical factors in multivariate analysis [hazard ratio (HR), 3.72; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.66–5.43; p<0.0001]. In an external dataset, multivariate analysis revealed that this prognostic index was significantly correlated with PFS time (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.20–1.98; p = 0.0008). Furthermore, the correlation between the prognostic index and overall survival time was confirmed in the two independent external datasets (log rank test, p = 0.0010 and 0.0008). Conclusions/Significance The prognostic ability of our index based on the 88-gene expression profile in ridge regression Cox hazard model was shown to be independent of other clinical factors in predicting cancer prognosis across two distinct datasets. Further study will be necessary to improve predictive accuracy of the prognostic index toward clinical application for evaluation of the risk of recurrence in patients with advanced-stage serous ovarian cancer. PMID:20300634

  11. The Clinical Significance of MiR-148a as a Predictive Biomarker in Patients with Advanced Colorectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Takahashi, Masanobu; Cuatrecasas, Miriam; Balaguer, Francesc; Hur, Keun; Toiyama, Yuji; Castells, Antoni; Boland, C. Richard; Goel, Ajay

    2012-01-01

    Aim Development of robust prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) is imperative for advancing treatment strategies for this disease. We aimed to determine whether expression status of certain miRNAs might have prognostic/predictive value in CRC patients treated with conventional cytotoxic chemotherapies. Methods We studied a cohort of 273 CRC specimens from stage II/III patients treated with 5-fluorouracil-based adjuvant chemotherapy and stage IV patients subjected to 5-fluorouracil and oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy. In a screening set (n = 44), 13 of 21 candidate miRNAs were successfully quantified by multiplex quantitative RT-PCR. In the validation set comprising of the entire patient cohort, miR-148a expression status was assessed by quantitative RT-PCR, and its promoter methylation was quantified by bisulfite pyrosequencing. Lastly, we analyzed the associations between miR-148a expression and patient survival. Results Among the candidate miRNAs studied, miR-148a expression was most significantly down-regulated in advanced CRC tissues. In stage III and IV CRC, low miR-148a expression was associated with significantly shorter disease free-survival (DFS), a worse therapeutic response, and poor overall survival (OS). Furthermore, miR-148a methylation status correlated inversely with its expression, and was associated with worse survival in stage IV CRC. In multivariate analysis, miR-148a expression was an independent prognostic/predictive biomarker for advanced CRC patients (DFS in stage III, low vs. high expression, HR 2.11; OS in stage IV, HR 1.93). Discussion MiR-148a status has a prognostic/predictive value in advanced CRC patients treated with conventional chemotherapy, which has important clinical implications in improving therapeutic strategies and personalized management of this malignancy. PMID:23056401

  12. Cloud Susceptibilities to Ice Nuclei: Microphysical Effects and Dynamical Feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paukert, Marco; Hoose, Corinna

    2015-04-01

    The impact of aerosols on cloud properties is currently not well established. This is largely attributed to the interdependencies of aerosols and cloud microphysical processes, among which primary ice formation contributes to considerable uncertainties. Although it is known that in a large range of thermodynamic conditions aerosol particles are required to initiate ice formation, identifying and characterizing the effect of specific ice nuclei is among current scientific efforts. Here we attempt to quantify the change of cloud properties with varying aerosol background concentrations. We adapt the concept of susceptibilities for mixed-phase and ice clouds, defining the susceptibility as the derivation of a macrophysical quantity with respect to ice nucleating aerosol concentrations. A focus of our study is the use of different model approaches in order to identify the distinct contributions of both cloud microphysics and cloud-dynamical feedbacks to the overall susceptibility. The classical method is the direct comparison of two independent model runs, where the whole range of microphysical and cloud-dynamical feedbacks contributes to different cloud properties in a perturbed simulation. Our alternative method relies on a single simulation which incorporates multiple executions of the microphysical scheme within the same time step, each "perturbed microphysics" scheme with varying aerosol concentrations and an additional set of cloud particle tracers. Since in the latter case the model dynamics are held constant and only microphysical feedbacks contribute to the properties of perturbed clouds, we can distinguish between the pure microphysical effect and the dynamical enhancement or suppression. For a persistent Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus cloud layer which is expected to be particularly sensitive to feedback cycles, we show an enhancement of the cloud susceptibility to ice nucleating particles by dynamics of around 50%, but a decay of the enhancement with time

  13. An Intercomparison of Microphysical Retrieval Algorithms for Upper Tropospheric Ice Clouds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Comstock, Jennifer M.; d'Entremont, Robert; DeSlover, Daniel; Mace, Gerald G.; Matrosov, Sergey Y.; McFarlane, Sally A.; Minnis, Patrick; Mitchell, David; Sassen, Kenneth; Shupe, Matthew D.; Turner, David D.; Wang, Zhien

    2006-01-01

    The large horizontal extent, location in the cold upper troposphere, and ice composition make cirrus clouds important modulators of the earth's radiation budget and climate. Cirrus cloud microphysical properties are difficult to measure and model because they are inhomogeneous in nature and their ice crystal size distribution and habit are not well characterized. Accurate retrievals of cloud properties are crucial for improving the representation of cloud scale processes in large-scale models and for accurately predicting the earth's future climate. A number of passive and active remote sensing retrieval algorithms exist for estimating the microphysical properties of upper tropospheric clouds. We believe significant progress has been made in the evolution of these retrieval algorithms in the last decade, however, there is room for improvement. Members of the Atmospheric Radiation measurement program (ARM) Cloud properties Working Group are involved in an intercomparison of optical depth(tau), ice water path, and characteristic particle size in clouds retrieved using ground-based instruments. The goals of this intercomparison are to evaluate the accuracy of state-of-the-art algorithms, quantify the uncertainties, and make recommendations for improvement.

  14. Improving Representation of Convective Transport for Scale-Aware Parameterization – Part I: Convection and Cloud Properties Simulated with Spectral Bin and Bulk Microphysics

    SciTech Connect

    Fan, Jiwen; Liu, Yi-Chin; Xu, Kuan-Man; North, Kirk; Collis, Scott M.; Dong, Xiquan; Zhang, Guang J.; Chen, Qian; Ghan, Steven J.

    2015-04-27

    The ultimate goal of this study is to improve representation of convective transport by cumulus parameterization for meso-scale and climate models. As Part I of the study, we perform extensive evaluations of cloud-resolving simulations of a squall line and mesoscale convective complexes in mid-latitude continent and tropical regions using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) and with two double-moment bulk microphysics schemes: a modified Morrison (MOR) and Milbrandt and Yau (MY2). Compared to observations, in general, SBM gives better simulations of precipitation, vertical velocity of convective cores, and the vertically decreasing trend of radar reflectivity than MOR and MY2, and therefore will be used for analysis of scale-dependence of eddy transport in Part II. The common features of the simulations for all convective systems are (1) the model tends to overestimate convection intensity in the middle and upper troposphere, but SBM can alleviate much of the overestimation and reproduce the observed convection intensity well; (2) the model greatly overestimates radar reflectivity in convective cores (SBM predicts smaller radar reflectivity but does not remove the large overestimation); and (3) the model performs better for mid-latitude convective systems than tropical system. The modeled mass fluxes of the mid latitude systems are not sensitive to microphysics schemes, but are very sensitive for the tropical case indicating strong microphysics modification to convection. Cloud microphysical measurements of rain, snow and graupel in convective cores will be critically important to further elucidate issues within cloud microphysics schemes.

  15. Accurate Prediction of Advanced Liver Fibrosis Using the Decision Tree Learning Algorithm in Chronic Hepatitis C Egyptian Patients

    PubMed Central

    Hashem, Somaya; Esmat, Gamal; Elakel, Wafaa; Habashy, Shahira; Abdel Raouf, Safaa; Darweesh, Samar; Soliman, Mohamad; Elhefnawi, Mohamed; El-Adawy, Mohamed; ElHefnawi, Mahmoud

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aim. Respectively with the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C in the world, using noninvasive methods as an alternative method in staging chronic liver diseases for avoiding the drawbacks of biopsy is significantly increasing. The aim of this study is to combine the serum biomarkers and clinical information to develop a classification model that can predict advanced liver fibrosis. Methods. 39,567 patients with chronic hepatitis C were included and randomly divided into two separate sets. Liver fibrosis was assessed via METAVIR score; patients were categorized as mild to moderate (F0–F2) or advanced (F3-F4) fibrosis stages. Two models were developed using alternating decision tree algorithm. Model 1 uses six parameters, while model 2 uses four, which are similar to FIB-4 features except alpha-fetoprotein instead of alanine aminotransferase. Sensitivity and receiver operating characteristic curve were performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. Results. The best model achieved 86.2% negative predictive value and 0.78 ROC with 84.8% accuracy which is better than FIB-4. Conclusions. The risk of advanced liver fibrosis, due to chronic hepatitis C, could be predicted with high accuracy using decision tree learning algorithm that could be used to reduce the need to assess the liver biopsy. PMID:26880886

  16. Accurate Prediction of Advanced Liver Fibrosis Using the Decision Tree Learning Algorithm in Chronic Hepatitis C Egyptian Patients.

    PubMed

    Hashem, Somaya; Esmat, Gamal; Elakel, Wafaa; Habashy, Shahira; Abdel Raouf, Safaa; Darweesh, Samar; Soliman, Mohamad; Elhefnawi, Mohamed; El-Adawy, Mohamed; ElHefnawi, Mahmoud

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aim. Respectively with the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C in the world, using noninvasive methods as an alternative method in staging chronic liver diseases for avoiding the drawbacks of biopsy is significantly increasing. The aim of this study is to combine the serum biomarkers and clinical information to develop a classification model that can predict advanced liver fibrosis. Methods. 39,567 patients with chronic hepatitis C were included and randomly divided into two separate sets. Liver fibrosis was assessed via METAVIR score; patients were categorized as mild to moderate (F0-F2) or advanced (F3-F4) fibrosis stages. Two models were developed using alternating decision tree algorithm. Model 1 uses six parameters, while model 2 uses four, which are similar to FIB-4 features except alpha-fetoprotein instead of alanine aminotransferase. Sensitivity and receiver operating characteristic curve were performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. Results. The best model achieved 86.2% negative predictive value and 0.78 ROC with 84.8% accuracy which is better than FIB-4. Conclusions. The risk of advanced liver fibrosis, due to chronic hepatitis C, could be predicted with high accuracy using decision tree learning algorithm that could be used to reduce the need to assess the liver biopsy. PMID:26880886

  17. Observations of cloud microphysics and ice formation during COPE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, J. W.; Choularton, T. W.; Blyth, A. M.; Liu, Z.; Bower, K. N.; Crosier, J.; Gallagher, M. W.; Williams, P. I.; Dorsey, J. R.; Flynn, M. J.; Bennett, L. J.; Huang, Y.; French, J.; Korolev, A.; Brown, P. R. A.

    2016-01-01

    We present microphysical observations of cumulus clouds measured over the southwest peninsula of the UK during the COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) in August 2013, which are framed into a wider context using ground-based and airborne radar measurements. Two lines of cumulus clouds formed in the early afternoon along convergence lines aligned with the peninsula. The lines became longer and broader during the afternoon due to new cell formation and stratiform regions forming downwind of the convective cells. Ice concentrations up to 350 L-1, well in excess of the expected ice nuclei (IN) concentrations, were measured in the mature stratiform regions, suggesting that secondary ice production was active. Detailed sampling focused on an isolated liquid cloud that glaciated as it matured to merge with a band of cloud downwind. In the initial cell, drizzle concentrations increased from ˜ 0.5 to ˜ 20 L-1 in around 20 min. Ice concentrations developed up to a few per litre, which is around the level expected of primary IN. The ice images were most consistent with freezing drizzle, rather than smaller cloud drops or interstitial IN forming the first ice. As new cells emerged in and around the cloud, ice concentrations up to 2 orders of magnitude higher than the predicted IN concentrations developed, and the cloud glaciated over a period of 12-15 min. Almost all of the first ice particles to be observed were frozen drops, while vapour-grown ice crystals were dominant in the latter stages. Our observations are consistent with the production of large numbers of small secondary ice crystals/fragments, by a mechanism such as Hallett-Mossop or droplets shattering upon freezing. Some of the small ice froze drizzle drops on contact, while others grew more slowly by vapour deposition. Graupel and columns were seen in cloud penetrations up to the -12 °C level, though many ice particles were mixed habit due to riming and growth by vapour deposition at multiple temperatures

  18. Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Reid, Terry; Schifer, Nicholas; Briggs, Maxwell

    2011-01-01

    Past methods of predicting net heat input needed to be validated. Validation effort pursued with several paths including improving model inputs, using test hardware to provide validation data, and validating high fidelity models. Validation test hardware provided direct measurement of net heat input for comparison to predicted values. Predicted value of net heat input was 1.7 percent less than measured value and initial calculations of measurement uncertainty were 2.1 percent (under review). Lessons learned during validation effort were incorporated into convertor modeling approach which improved predictions of convertor efficiency.

  19. Prediction Model for Prevalence and Incidence of Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration Based on Genetic, Demographic, and Environmental Variables

    PubMed Central

    Seddon, Johanna M.; Reynolds, Robyn; Maller, Julian; Fagerness, Jesen A.; Daly, Mark J.; Rosner, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    Purpose The joint effects of genetic, ocular, and environmental variables were evaluated and predictive models for prevalence and incidence of AMD were assessed. Methods Participants in the multicenter Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) were included in a prospective evaluation of 1446 individuals, of which 279 progressed to advanced AMD (geographic atrophy or neovascular disease) and 1167 did not progress during 6.3 years of follow-up. For prevalent AMD, 509 advanced cases were compared with 222 controls. Covariates for the incidence analysis included age, sex, education, smoking, body mass index (BMI), baseline AMD grade, and the AREDS vitamin–mineral treatment assignment. DNA specimens were evaluated for six variants in five genes related to AMD. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were performed for prevalent and incident advanced AMD. An algorithm was developed and receiver operating characteristic curves and C statistics were calculated to assess the predictive ability of risk scores to discriminate progressors from nonprogressors. Results All genetic polymorphisms were independently related to prevalence of advanced AMD, controlling for genetic factors, smoking, BMI, and AREDS treatment. Multivariate odds ratios (ORs) were 3.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7–7.1) for CFH Y402H; 3.7 (95% CI, 1.6 – 8.4) for CFH rs1410996; 25.4 (95% CI, 8.6 –75.1) for LOC387715 A69S (ARMS2); 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1– 0.7) for C2 E318D; 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1– 0.5) for CFB; and 3.6 (95% CI, 1.4 –9.4) for C3 R102G, comparing the homozygous risk/protective genotypes to the referent genotypes. For incident AMD, all these variants except CFB were significantly related to progression to advanced AMD, after controlling for baseline AMD grade and other factors, with ORs from 1.8 to 4.0 for presence of two risk alleles and 0.4 for the protective allele. An interaction was seen between CFH402H and treatment, after controlling for all genotypes. Smoking was independently

  20. The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carey, Lawrence D.; Peterson, Harold S.; Schultz, Elise V.; Matthee, Retha; Schultz, Christopher J.; Petersen, Walter A,; Bain, Lamont

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type (intracloud [IC] vs. cloud-to-ground [CG] ) and extent. Data and Methodology: a) NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TradeMark) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. b) LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles (Koshak et al. 2012). c) LNOM lightning characteristics are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler (DD) and polarimetric radar analyses of UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, Cband, polarimetric) and KHTX (S-band, Doppler).

  1. Soil erosion predictions from upland areas – a discussion of selected RUSLE2 advances and needs

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Obtaining more accurate soil loss estimates from upland areas is important for improving management practices on agricultural fields. Much of the soil erosion prediction research of the last 25 years has been concerned with this goal. The most widely used predictive relationships have been the Unive...

  2. Advanced Methods for Determining Prediction Uncertainty in Model-Based Prognostics with Application to Planetary Rovers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Sankararaman, Shankar

    2013-01-01

    Prognostics is centered on predicting the time of and time until adverse events in components, subsystems, and systems. It typically involves both a state estimation phase, in which the current health state of a system is identified, and a prediction phase, in which the state is projected forward in time. Since prognostics is mainly a prediction problem, prognostic approaches cannot avoid uncertainty, which arises due to several sources. Prognostics algorithms must both characterize this uncertainty and incorporate it into the predictions so that informed decisions can be made about the system. In this paper, we describe three methods to solve these problems, including Monte Carlo-, unscented transform-, and first-order reliability-based methods. Using a planetary rover as a case study, we demonstrate and compare the different methods in simulation for battery end-of-discharge prediction.

  3. Towards More Consistent Retrievals of Ice Cloud Optical and Microphysical Properties from Polar Orbiting Sensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baum, B. A.; Heymsfield, A.; Yang, P.

    2011-12-01

    Differences exist in the ice cloud optical thickness and effective particle size products provided by teams working with data from AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer), MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of the Earth Reflectance), Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR), and CALIOP (Cloud Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization). The issue is in large part due to the assumed ice cloud single-scattering properties that each team uses in their retrievals. To gain insight into this problem, we are developing ice cloud single-scattering properties consistently from solar through far-infrared wavelengths by merging ice cloud microphysical data from in situ measurements with the very latest light scattering calculations for ice habits that include droxtals, solid/hollow columns, plates, solid/hollow bullet rosettes, aggregates of columns, and small/large aggregates of plates. The in-situ measurements are from a variety of field campaigns, including ARM-IOP, CRYSTAL-FACE, ACTIVE, SCOUT, MidCiX, pre-AVE, TC-4, and MACPEX. Among other advances, the light scattering calculations include the full phase matrix (i.e., polarization), incorporate a new treatment of forward scattering, and three levels of surface roughness from smooth to severely roughened. This talk will focus on improvements to our methodology for building both spectral and narrowband bulk scattering optical models appropriate for satellite imagers and hyperspectral infrared sensors. The new models provide a basis for investigating retrieval differences in the products from the sensor teams. We will discuss recent work towards improving the consistency of ice cloud microphysical/optical property retrievals between solar, polarimetric, and infrared retrieval approaches. It will be demonstrated that severely roughened ice particles correspond best in comparisons to polarization measurements. Further discussion will provide insight as to the

  4. Improving a Spectral Bin Microphysical Scheme Using TRMM Satellite Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Xiaowen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Matsui, Toshihisa; Liu, Chuntao; Masunaga, Hirohiko

    2010-01-01

    Comparisons between cloud model simulations and observations are crucial in validating model performance and improving physical processes represented in the mod Tel.hese modeled physical processes are idealized representations and almost always have large rooms for improvements. In this study, we use data from two different sensors onboard TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) satellite to improve the microphysical scheme in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. TRMM observed mature-stage squall lines during late spring, early summer in central US over a 9-year period are compiled and compared with a case simulation by GCE model. A unique aspect of the GCE model is that it has a state-of-the-art spectral bin microphysical scheme, which uses 33 different bins to represent particle size distribution of each of the seven hydrometeor species. A forward radiative transfer model calculates TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) 85 GHz brightness temperatures from simulated particle size distributions. Comparisons between model outputs and observations reveal that the model overestimates sizes of snow/aggregates in the stratiform region of the squall line. After adjusting temperature-dependent collection coefficients among ice-phase particles, PR comparisons become good while TMI comparisons worsen. Further investigations show that the partitioning between graupel (a high-density form of aggregate), and snow (a low-density form of aggregate) needs to be adjusted in order to have good comparisons in both PR reflectivity and TMI brightness temperature. This study shows that long-term satellite observations, especially those with multiple sensors, can be very useful in constraining model microphysics. It is also the first study in validating and improving a sophisticated spectral bin microphysical scheme according to long-term satellite observations.

  5. Overview of microphysical and state parameter measurements from FIRE 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Miloshevich, Larry M.

    1993-01-01

    In this article we present data collected by the NCAR King Air and Sabreliner aircraft in the FIRE 2 cirrus project over southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma in Nov. and Dec. of 1991. We present state parameter and microphysical measurements in summary form for the dates which have been selected by the FIRE Science Team for intensive analysis, 25 and 26 Nov. and 5 and 6 Dec. We will also evaluate the performance of 'key' aircraft instrumentation.

  6. Microphysical controls on the isotopic composition of wintertime orographic precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, M.; Blossey, P. N.; Muhlbauer, A.; Kuang, Z.

    2016-06-01

    The sensitivity of mixed-phase orographic clouds, precipitation, and their isotopic content to changes in dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics is explored in idealized two-dimensional flow over a mountain barrier. These simulations use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with stable water isotopologues (HDO and H218O), which have been integrated into the Thompson microphysics scheme within WRF as part of the present project. In order to understand how the isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18Oprecip) is fixed, the mountain height, temperature, and the prescribed cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) have been varied in a series of simulations. For the given range of values explored in this work, changes in mountain height and temperature induce stronger responses in domain-averaged δ18Oprecip than do changes in CDNC by a factor of approximately 10. The strongest response to changing CDNC leads to local variations of δ18Oprecip of about 3‰, though those occur in regions of weak precipitation (<0.1 mm h-1). Changes in δ18Oprecip can be understood through the microphysical pathways by which precipitable hydrometeors are formed and by the isotopic signature associated with each pathway. The decrease in δ18Oprecip with increasing mountain height is not just a function of decreasing temperature but also reflects the changing contributions and distinct isotopic signatures of riming of cloud liquid and vapor deposition onto snow, the leading sources of precipitation in these simulations. The changes in δ18Oprecip with mountain height, temperature, and CDNC are governed in part by the microphysical pathways through which precipitating hydrometeors are formed and grow.

  7. Microphysical simulations of sulfur burdens from stratospheric sulfur geoengineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    English, J. M.; Toon, O. B.; Mills, M. J.

    2012-05-01

    Recent microphysical studies suggest that geoengineering by continuous stratospheric injection of SO2 gas may be limited by the growth of the aerosols. We study the efficacy of SO2, H2SO4 and aerosol injections on aerosol mass and optical depth using a three-dimensional general circulation model with sulfur chemistry and sectional aerosol microphysics (WACCM/CARMA). We find increasing injection rates of SO2 in a narrow band around the equator to have limited efficacy while broadening the injecting zone as well as injecting particles instead of SO2 gas increases the sulfate burden for a given injection rate, in agreement with previous work. We find that injecting H2SO4 gas instead of SO2 does not discernibly alter sulfate size or mass, in contrast with a previous study using a plume model with a microphysical model. However, the physics and chemistry in aircraft plumes, which are smaller than climate model grid cells, need to be more carefully considered. We also find significant perturbations to tropospheric aerosol for all injections studied, particularly in the upper troposphere and near the poles, where sulfate burden increases by up to 100 times. This enhanced burden could have implications for tropospheric radiative forcing and chemistry. These results highlight the need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions rather than attempt to cool the planet through geoengineering, and to further study geoengineering before it can be seriously considered as a climate intervention option.

  8. Impacts of PSC Microphysics on Modelled Ozone Loss

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drdla, K.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Winter-long simulations of the 1999-2000 winter using a coupled microphysical/chemical model have been carried out to explore how PSC microphysics affects ozone loss. Although many models assures that water ice formation leads to denitrification, these simulations show that observed characteristics of the 1999-2000 winter can not be reproduced by such a denitrification mechanism. Instead, denitrification observations are best reproduced by a small number of particles freezing at temperatures near the nitric acid trihydration condensation point. Implications of such a mechanism for assessments of future ozone loss will be discussed. The simulations have also revealed that ozone loss during the 1999-2000 winter was sensitive to chlorine reactivation that occurred during February. Uncertainties in PSC microphysics and heterogeneous reaction rates both influence the modelled chlorine reactivation. For the 1999-2000 winter, these uncertainties have a larger effect on model ozone loss than denitrification. The role of denitrification would have increased if the Arctic vortex had persisted for a longer period.

  9. The Influence of Microphysical Cloud Parameterization on Microwave Brightness Temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Skofronick-Jackson, Gail M.; Gasiewski, Albin J.; Wang, James R.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The microphysical parameterization of clouds and rain-cells plays a central role in atmospheric forward radiative transfer models used in calculating passive microwave brightness temperatures. The absorption and scattering properties of a hydrometeor-laden atmosphere are governed by particle phase, size distribution, aggregate density., shape, and dielectric constant. This study identifies the sensitivity of brightness temperatures with respect to the microphysical cloud parameterization. Cloud parameterizations for wideband (6-410 GHz observations of baseline brightness temperatures were studied for four evolutionary stages of an oceanic convective storm using a five-phase hydrometeor model in a planar-stratified scattering-based radiative transfer model. Five other microphysical cloud parameterizations were compared to the baseline calculations to evaluate brightness temperature sensitivity to gross changes in the hydrometeor size distributions and the ice-air-water ratios in the frozen or partly frozen phase. The comparison shows that, enlarging the rain drop size or adding water to the partly Frozen hydrometeor mix warms brightness temperatures by up to .55 K at 6 GHz. The cooling signature caused by ice scattering intensifies with increasing ice concentrations and at higher frequencies. An additional comparison to measured Convection and Moisture LA Experiment (CAMEX 3) brightness temperatures shows that in general all but, two parameterizations produce calculated T(sub B)'s that fall within the observed clear-air minima and maxima. The exceptions are for parameterizations that, enhance the scattering characteristics of frozen hydrometeors.

  10. An Integrated Theory for Predicting the Hydrothermomechanical Response of Advanced Composite Structural Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, C. C.; Lark, R. F.; Sinclair, J. H.

    1977-01-01

    An integrated theory is developed for predicting the hydrothermomechanical (HDTM) response of fiber composite components. The integrated theory is based on a combined theoretical and experimental investigation. In addition to predicting the HDTM response of components, the theory is structured to assess the combined hydrothermal effects on the mechanical properties of unidirectional composites loaded along the material axis and off-axis, and those of angleplied laminates. The theory developed predicts values which are in good agreement with measured data at the micromechanics, macromechanics, laminate analysis and structural analysis levels.

  11. Early prediction of pathological response in locally advanced rectal cancer based on sequential 18F-FDG PET

    PubMed Central

    HATT, MATHIEU; VAN STIPHOUT, RUUD; LE POGAM, ADRIEN; LAMMERING, GUIDO; VISVIKIS, DIMITRIS; LAMBIN, PHILIPPE

    2016-01-01

    Background The objectives of this study were to investigate the predictive value of sequential 18F-FDG PET scans for pathological tumor response grade (TRG) after preoperative chemoradiotherapy (PCRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and the impact of partial volume effects correction (PVC). Methods Twenty-eight LARC patients were included. Responders and non-responders status were determined in histopathology. PET indices [SUV max and mean, volume and total lesion glycolysis (TLG)] at baseline and their evolution after one and two weeks of PCRT were extracted by delineation of the PET images, with or without PVC. Their predictive value was investigated using Mann-Whitney-U tests and ROC analysis. Results Within baseline parameters, only SUVmean was correlated with response. No evolution after one week was predictive of the response, whereas after two weeks all the parameters except volume were, the best prediction being obtained with TLG (AUC 0.79, sensitivity 63%, specificity 92%). PVC had no significant impact on these results. Conclusion Several PET indices at baseline and their evolution after two weeks of PCRT are good predictors of response in LARC, with or without PVC, whereas results after one week are suboptimal. Best predictor was TLG reduction after two weeks, although baseline SUVmean had smaller but similar predictive power. PMID:22873767

  12. Drought Prediction Site Specific and Regional up to Three Years in Advance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suhler, G.; O'Brien, D. P.

    2002-12-01

    Dynamic Predictables has developed proprietary software that analyzes and predicts future climatic behavior based on past data. The programs employ both a regional thermodynamic model together with a unique predictive algorithm to achieve a high degree of prediction accuracy up to 36 months. The thermodynamic model was developed initially to explain the results of a study on global circulation models done at SUNY-Stony Brook by S. Hameed, R.G. Currie, and H. LaGrone (Int. Jour. Climatology, 15, pp.852-871, 1995). The authors pointed out that on a time scale of 2-70 months the spectrum of sea level pressure is dominated by the harmonics and subharmonics of the seasonal cycle and their combination tones. These oscillations are fundamental to an understanding of climatic variations on a sub-regional to continental basis. The oscillatory nature of these variations allows them to be used as broad based climate predictors. In addition, they can be subtracted from the data to yield residuals. The residuals are then analyzed to determine components that are predictable. The program then combines both the thermodynamic model results (the primary predictive model) with those from the residual data (the secondary model) to yield an estimate of the future behavior of the climatic variable. Spatial resolution is site specific or aggregated regional based upon appropriate length (45 years or more monthly data) and reasonable quality weather observation records. Most climate analysis has been based on monthly time-step data, but time scales on the order of days can be used. Oregon Climate Division 1 (Coastal) precipitation provides an example relating DynaPred's method to nature's observed elements in the early 2000s. The prediction's leading dynamic factors are the strong seasonal in the primary model combined with high secondary model contributions from planet Earth's Chandler Wobble (near 15 months) and what has been called the Quasi-Triennial Oscillation (QTO, near 36 months

  13. Laboratory measurements of resistivity in warm dense plasmas relevant to the microphysics of brown dwarfs

    PubMed Central

    Booth, N.; Robinson, A. P. L.; Hakel, P.; Clarke, R. J.; Dance, R. J.; Doria, D.; Gizzi, L. A.; Gregori, G.; Koester, P.; Labate, L.; Levato, T.; Li, B.; Makita, M.; Mancini, R. C.; Pasley, J.; Rajeev, P. P.; Riley, D.; Wagenaars, E.; Waugh, J. N.; Woolsey, N. C.

    2015-01-01

    Since the observation of the first brown dwarf in 1995, numerous studies have led to a better understanding of the structures of these objects. Here we present a method for studying material resistivity in warm dense plasmas in the laboratory, which we relate to the microphysics of brown dwarfs through viscosity and electron collisions. Here we use X-ray polarimetry to determine the resistivity of a sulphur-doped plastic target heated to Brown Dwarf conditions by an ultra-intense laser. The resistivity is determined by matching the plasma physics model to the atomic physics calculations of the measured large, positive, polarization. The inferred resistivity is larger than predicted using standard resistivity models, suggesting that these commonly used models will not adequately describe the resistivity of warm dense plasma related to the viscosity of brown dwarfs. PMID:26541650

  14. Cirrus microphysics and radiative transfer: Cloud field study on October 28, 1986

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kinne, Stefan; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Valero, Francisco P. J.; Sassen, Kenneth; Spinhirne, James D.

    1990-01-01

    The radiative properties of cirrus clouds present one of the unresolved problems in weather and climate research. Uncertainties in ice particle amount and size and, also, the general inability to model the single scattering properties of their usually complex particle shapes, prevent accurate model predictions. For an improved understanding of cirrus radiative effects, field experiments, as those of the Cirrus IFO of FIRE, are necessary. Simultaneous measurements of radiative fluxes and cirrus microphysics at multiple cirrus cloud altitudes allows the pitting of calculated versus measured vertical flux profiles; with the potential to judge current cirrus cloud modeling. Most of the problems in this study are linked to the inhomogeneity of the cloud field. Thus, only studies on more homogeneous cirrus cloud cases promises a possibility to improve current cirrus parameterizations. Still, the current inability to detect small ice particles will remain as a considerable handicap.

  15. Laboratory measurements of resistivity in warm dense plasmas relevant to the microphysics of brown dwarfs

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Booth, N.; Robinson, A. P. L.; Hakel, P.; Clarke, R. J.; Dance, R. J.; Doria, D.; Gizzi, L. A.; Gregori, G.; Koester, P.; Labate, L.; et al

    2015-11-06

    Since the observation of the first brown dwarf in 1995, numerous studies have led to a better understanding of the structures of these objects. Here we present a method for studying material resistivity in warm dense plasmas in the laboratory, which we relate to the microphysics of brown dwarfs through viscosity and electron collisions. Here we use X-ray polarimetry to determine the resistivity of a sulphur-doped plastic target heated to Brown Dwarf conditions by an ultra-intense laser. The resistivity is determined by matching the plasma physics model to the atomic physics calculations of the measured large, positive, polarization. Furthermore, themore » inferred resistivity is larger than predicted using standard resistivity models, suggesting that these commonly used models will not adequately describe the resistivity of warm dense plasma related to the viscosity of brown dwarfs.« less

  16. Minimalist Model of Ice Microphysics in Mixed-phase Stratiform Clouds

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, F.; Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Shaw, Raymond A.

    2013-07-28

    The question of whether persistent ice crystal precipitation from super cooled layer clouds can be explained by time-dependent, stochastic ice nucleation is explored using an approximate, analytical model, and a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model. The updraft velocity in the cloud defines an accumulation zone, where small ice particles cannot fall out until they are large enough, which will increase the residence time of ice particles in the cloud. Ice particles reach a quasi-steady state between growth by vapor deposition and fall speed at cloud base. The analytical model predicts that ice water content (wi) has a 2.5 power law relationship with ice number concentration ni. wi and ni from a LES cloud model with stochastic ice nucleation also confirm the 2.5 power law relationship. The prefactor of the power law is proportional to the ice nucleation rate, and therefore provides a quantitative link to observations of ice microphysical properties.

  17. Laboratory measurements of resistivity in warm dense plasmas relevant to the microphysics of brown dwarfs

    SciTech Connect

    Booth, N.; Robinson, A. P. L.; Hakel, P.; Clarke, R. J.; Dance, R. J.; Doria, D.; Gizzi, L. A.; Gregori, G.; Koester, P.; Labate, L.; Levato, T.; Li, B.; Makita, M.; Mancini, R. C.; Pasley, J.; Rajeev, P. P.; Riley, D.; Wagenaars, E.; Waugh, J. N.; Woolsey, N. C.

    2015-11-06

    Since the observation of the first brown dwarf in 1995, numerous studies have led to a better understanding of the structures of these objects. Here we present a method for studying material resistivity in warm dense plasmas in the laboratory, which we relate to the microphysics of brown dwarfs through viscosity and electron collisions. Here we use X-ray polarimetry to determine the resistivity of a sulphur-doped plastic target heated to Brown Dwarf conditions by an ultra-intense laser. The resistivity is determined by matching the plasma physics model to the atomic physics calculations of the measured large, positive, polarization. Furthermore, the inferred resistivity is larger than predicted using standard resistivity models, suggesting that these commonly used models will not adequately describe the resistivity of warm dense plasma related to the viscosity of brown dwarfs.

  18. Laboratory measurements of resistivity in warm dense plasmas relevant to the microphysics of brown dwarfs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, N.; Robinson, A. P. L.; Hakel, P.; Clarke, R. J.; Dance, R. J.; Doria, D.; Gizzi, L. A.; Gregori, G.; Koester, P.; Labate, L.; Levato, T.; Li, B.; Makita, M.; Mancini, R. C.; Pasley, J.; Rajeev, P. P.; Riley, D.; Wagenaars, E.; Waugh, J. N.; Woolsey, N. C.

    2015-11-01

    Since the observation of the first brown dwarf in 1995, numerous studies have led to a better understanding of the structures of these objects. Here we present a method for studying material resistivity in warm dense plasmas in the laboratory, which we relate to the microphysics of brown dwarfs through viscosity and electron collisions. Here we use X-ray polarimetry to determine the resistivity of a sulphur-doped plastic target heated to Brown Dwarf conditions by an ultra-intense laser. The resistivity is determined by matching the plasma physics model to the atomic physics calculations of the measured large, positive, polarization. The inferred resistivity is larger than predicted using standard resistivity models, suggesting that these commonly used models will not adequately describe the resistivity of warm dense plasma related to the viscosity of brown dwarfs.

  19. Predictive and prognostic significance of circulating endothelial cells in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Dong-mei; Zhang, Qin; Lv, Yan-ling; Ma, Xing-qun; Zhang, Yan; Liu, Hong-bing; Song, Yong

    2015-11-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive and prognostic values of circulating endothelial cells (CECs) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). A total of 102 newly diagnosed advanced NSCLC patients were enrolled in this study. The amount of CECs was enumerated by flow cytometry (CD45- CD31+ CD146+) at baseline. CEC counts of 56 patients were detected before and after two cycles of chemotherapy. We correlated the baseline and reduction of CECs after therapy with objective response rate (ORR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). The CEC level was significantly higher in advanced NSCLC patients, ranging from 57 to 1300 cells/10(5) cells (mean ± SD = 299 ± 221 cells/10(5) cells), than in patients with benign lesions (205 ± 97 cells/10(5) cells) and healthy volunteers (117 ± 33 cells/10(5) cells). When the cutoff value of CEC counts was 210 cells/10(5) cells, there was no significant association between CEC counts and OR/PFS/OS of the enrolled patients. However, patients with CEC response after chemotherapy have more chances to achieve OR (P < 0.001), and such patients showed longer PFS (P = 0.048) and OS (P = 0.018) than those without CEC response. In the multivariate analysis, the independent prognostic roles of brain metastasis (HR 6.165, P = 0.001), and CEC response (HR 0.442, P = 0.044) were found. The CEC counts could be considered as diagnostic biomarker for advanced NSCLC patients. And the reduction of CECs after treatment might be more ideal than the baseline CEC counts as a predictive or prognostic factor in patients treated with chemotherapy or anti-angiogenic therapy. PMID:26084612

  20. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced vehicular heat engines: Volume 1. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Khandelwal, P.K.; Provenzano, N.J.; Schneider, W.E.

    1996-02-01

    One of the major challenges involved in the use of ceramic materials is ensuring adequate strength and durability. This activity has developed methodology which can be used during the design phase to predict the structural behavior of ceramic components. The effort involved the characterization of injection molded and hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) PY-6 silicon nitride, the development of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology, and the development of analytical life prediction methodology. Four failure modes are addressed: fast fracture, slow crack growth, creep, and oxidation. The techniques deal with failures initiating at the surface as well as internal to the component. The life prediction methodology for fast fracture and slow crack growth have been verified using a variety of confirmatory tests. The verification tests were conducted at room and elevated temperatures up to a maximum of 1371 {degrees}C. The tests involved (1) flat circular disks subjected to bending stresses and (2) high speed rotating spin disks. Reasonable correlation was achieved for a variety of test conditions and failure mechanisms. The predictions associated with surface failures proved to be optimistic, requiring re-evaluation of the components` initial fast fracture strengths. Correlation was achieved for the spin disks which failed in fast fracture from internal flaws. Time dependent elevated temperature slow crack growth spin disk failures were also successfully predicted.

  1. Advanced validation of CFD-FDTD combined method using highly applicable solver for reentry blackout prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Yusuke

    2016-01-01

    An analysis model of plasma flow and electromagnetic waves around a reentry vehicle for radio frequency blackout prediction during aerodynamic heating was developed in this study. The model was validated based on experimental results from the radio attenuation measurement program. The plasma flow properties, such as electron number density, in the shock layer and wake region were obtained using a newly developed unstructured grid solver that incorporated real gas effect models and could treat thermochemically non-equilibrium flow. To predict the electromagnetic waves in plasma, a frequency-dependent finite-difference time-domain method was used. Moreover, the complicated behaviour of electromagnetic waves in the plasma layer during atmospheric reentry was clarified at several altitudes. The prediction performance of the combined model was evaluated with profiles and peak values of the electron number density in the plasma layer. In addition, to validate the models, the signal losses measured during communication with the reentry vehicle were directly compared with the predicted results. Based on the study, it was suggested that the present analysis model accurately predicts the radio frequency blackout and plasma attenuation of electromagnetic waves in plasma in communication.

  2. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

    PubMed

    Keenlyside, N S; Latif, M; Jungclaus, J; Kornblueh, L; Roeckner, E

    2008-05-01

    The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming. PMID:18451859

  3. Ideal MHD Stability Prediction and Required Power for EAST Advanced Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Junjie; Li, Guoqiang; Qian, Jinping; Liu, Zixi

    2012-11-01

    The Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) is the first fully superconducting tokamak with a D-shaped cross-sectional plasma presently in operation. The ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and required power for the EAST advanced tokamak (AT) scenario with negative central shear and double transport barrier (DTB) are investigated. With the equilibrium code TOQ and stability code GATO, the ideal MHD stability is analyzed. It is shown that a moderate ratio of edge transport barriers' (ETB) height to internal transport barriers' (ITBs) height is beneficial to ideal MHD stability. The normalized beta βN limit is about 2.20 (without wall) and 3.70 (with ideal wall). With the scaling law of energy confinement time, the required heating power for EAST AT scenario is calculated. The total heating power Pt increases as the toroidal magnetic field BT or the normalized beta βN is increased.

  4. Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 2, Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    This volume presents the following appendices: ceramic test specimen drawings and schematics, mixed-mode and biaxial stress fracture of structural ceramics for advanced vehicular heat engines (U. Utah), mode I/mode II fracture toughness and tension/torsion fracture strength of NT154 Si nitride (Brown U.), summary of strength test results and fractography, fractography photographs, derivations of statistical models, Weibull strength plots for fast fracture test specimens, and size functions.

  5. Development of Predictive Models of Advanced Propulsion Concepts for Low Cost Space Transportation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morrell, Michael Randy

    2002-01-01

    This final report presents the Graduate Student Research Program (GSRP) work Mr. Morrell was able to complete as a summer intern at NASA MSFS during the summer of 2001, and represents work completed from inception through project termination. The topics include: 1) NASA TD40 Organization; 2) Combustion Physics Lab; 3) Advanced Hydrocarbon Fuels; 4) GSRP Summer Tasks; 5) High Pressure Facility Installation; 6) High Pressure Combustion Issues; 7) High Energy Density Matter (HEDM) Hydrocarbons; and 8) GSRP Summer Intern Summary.

  6. OSMOSE an experimental program for improving neutronic predictions of advanced nuclear fuels.

    SciTech Connect

    Klann, R. T.; Aliberti, G.; Zhong, Z.; Graczyk, D.; Loussi, A.; Nuclear Engineering Division; Commissariat a l Energie Atomique

    2007-10-18

    This report describes the technical results of tasks and activities conducted in FY07 to support the DOE-CEA collaboration on the OSMOSE program. The activities are divided into five high-level tasks: reactor modeling and pre-experiment analysis, sample fabrication and analysis, reactor experiments, data treatment and analysis, and assessment for relevance to high priority advanced reactor programs (such as GNEP and Gen-IV).

  7. Advances and Challenges In Uncertainty Quantification with Application to Climate Prediction, ICF design and Science Stockpile Stewardship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, R.; Woodward, C. S.; Johannesson, G.; Domyancic, D.; Covey, C. C.; Lucas, D. D.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a critical field within 21st century simulation science that resides at the very center of the web of emerging predictive capabilities. The science of UQ holds the promise of giving much greater meaning to the results of complex large-scale simulations, allowing for quantifying and bounding uncertainties. This powerful capability will yield new insights into scientific predictions (e.g. Climate) of great impact on both national and international arenas, allow informed decisions on the design of critical experiments (e.g. ICF capsule design, MFE, NE) in many scientific fields, and assign confidence bounds to scientifically predictable outcomes (e.g. nuclear weapons design). In this talk I will discuss a major new strategic initiative (SI) we have developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to advance the science of Uncertainty Quantification at LLNL focusing in particular on (a) the research and development of new algorithms and methodologies of UQ as applied to multi-physics multi-scale codes, (b) incorporation of these advancements into a global UQ Pipeline (i.e. a computational superstructure) that will simplify user access to sophisticated tools for UQ studies as well as act as a self-guided, self-adapting UQ engine for UQ studies on extreme computing platforms and (c) use laboratory applications as a test bed for new algorithms and methodologies. The initial SI focus has been on applications for the quantification of uncertainty associated with Climate prediction, but the validated UQ methodologies we have developed are now being fed back into Science Based Stockpile Stewardship (SSS) and ICF UQ efforts. To make advancements in several of these UQ grand challenges, I will focus in talk on the following three research areas in our Strategic Initiative: Error Estimation in multi-physics and multi-scale codes ; Tackling the "Curse of High Dimensionality"; and development of an advanced UQ Computational Pipeline to enable

  8. Predicted and measured boundary layer refraction for advanced turboprop propeller noise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dittmar, James H.; Krejsa, Eugene A.

    1990-01-01

    Currently, boundary layer refraction presents a limitation to the measurement of forward arc propeller noise measured on an acoustic plate in the NASA Lewis 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel. The use of a validated boundary layer refraction model to adjust the data could remove this limitation. An existing boundary layer refraction model is used to predict the refraction for cases where boundary layer refraction was measured. In general, the model exhibits the same qualitative behavior as the measured refraction. However, the prediction method does not show quantitative agreement with the data. In general, it overpredicts the amount of refraction for the far forward angles at axial Mach number of 0.85 and 0.80 and underpredicts the refraction at axial Mach numbers of 0.75 and 0.70. A more complete propeller source description is suggested as a way to improve the prediction method.

  9. Microphysical and radiative changes in cirrus clouds by geoengineering the stratosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cirisan, A.; Spichtinger, P.; Luo, B. P.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Wernli, H.; Lohmann, U.; Peter, T.

    2013-05-01

    In the absence of tangible progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the implementation of solar radiation management has been suggested as measure to stop global warming. Here we investigate the impacts on northern midlatitude cirrus from continuous SO2emissions of 2-10 Mt/a in the tropical stratosphere. Transport of geoengineering aerosols into the troposphere was calculated along trajectories based on ERA Interim reanalyses using ozone concentrations to quantify the degree of mixing of stratospheric and tropospheric air termed "troposphericity". Modeled size distributions of the geoengineered H2SO4-H2O droplets have been fed into a cirrus box model with spectral microphysics. The geoengineering is predicted to cause changes in ice number density by up to 50%, depending on troposphericity and cooling rate. We estimate the resulting cloud radiative effects from a radiation transfer model. Complex interplay between the few large stratospheric and many small tropospheric H2SO4-H2O droplets gives rise to partly counteracting radiative effects: local increases in cloud radiative forcing up to +2 W/m2for low troposphericities and slow cooling rates, and decreases up to -7.5 W/m2for high troposphericities and fast cooling rates. The resulting mean impact on the northern midlatitudes by changes in cirrus is predicted to be low, namely <1% of the intended radiative forcing by the stratospheric aerosols. This suggests that stratospheric sulphate geoengineering is unlikely to have large microphysical effects on the mean cirrus radiative forcing. However, this study disregards feedbacks, such as temperature and humidity changes in the upper troposphere, which must be examined separately.

  10. Machine learning and statistical methods for the prediction of maximal oxygen uptake: recent advances.

    PubMed

    Abut, Fatih; Akay, Mehmet Fatih

    2015-01-01

    Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) indicates how many milliliters of oxygen the body can consume in a state of intense exercise per minute. VO2max plays an important role in both sport and medical sciences for different purposes, such as indicating the endurance capacity of athletes or serving as a metric in estimating the disease risk of a person. In general, the direct measurement of VO2max provides the most accurate assessment of aerobic power. However, despite a high level of accuracy, practical limitations associated with the direct measurement of VO2max, such as the requirement of expensive and sophisticated laboratory equipment or trained staff, have led to the development of various regression models for predicting VO2max. Consequently, a lot of studies have been conducted in the last years to predict VO2max of various target audiences, ranging from soccer athletes, nonexpert swimmers, cross-country skiers to healthy-fit adults, teenagers, and children. Numerous prediction models have been developed using different sets of predictor variables and a variety of machine learning and statistical methods, including support vector machine, multilayer perceptron, general regression neural network, and multiple linear regression. The purpose of this study is to give a detailed overview about the data-driven modeling studies for the prediction of VO2max conducted in recent years and to compare the performance of various VO2max prediction models reported in related literature in terms of two well-known metrics, namely, multiple correlation coefficient (R) and standard error of estimate. The survey results reveal that with respect to regression methods used to develop prediction models, support vector machine, in general, shows better performance than other methods, whereas multiple linear regression exhibits the worst performance. PMID:26346869

  11. A hybrid approach to advancing quantitative prediction of tissue distribution of basic drugs in human

    SciTech Connect

    Poulin, Patrick; Ekins, Sean; Theil, Frank-Peter

    2011-01-15

    A general toxicity of basic drugs is related to phospholipidosis in tissues. Therefore, it is essential to predict the tissue distribution of basic drugs to facilitate an initial estimate of that toxicity. The objective of the present study was to further assess the original prediction method that consisted of using the binding to red blood cells measured in vitro for the unbound drug (RBCu) as a surrogate for tissue distribution, by correlating it to unbound tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kpu) of several tissues, and finally to predict volume of distribution at steady-state (V{sub ss}) in humans under in vivo conditions. This correlation method demonstrated inaccurate predictions of V{sub ss} for particular basic drugs that did not follow the original correlation principle. Therefore, the novelty of this study is to provide clarity on the actual hypotheses to identify i) the impact of pharmacological mode of action on the generic correlation of RBCu-Kpu, ii) additional mechanisms of tissue distribution for the outlier drugs, iii) molecular features and properties that differentiate compounds as outliers in the original correlation analysis in order to facilitate its applicability domain alongside the properties already used so far, and finally iv) to present a novel and refined correlation method that is superior to what has been previously published for the prediction of human V{sub ss} of basic drugs. Applying a refined correlation method after identifying outliers would facilitate the prediction of more accurate distribution parameters as key inputs used in physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) and phospholipidosis models.

  12. Predicting Cost/Reliability/Maintainability of Advanced General Aviation Avionics Equipment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, M. R.; Kamins, M.; Mooz, W. E.

    1978-01-01

    A methodology is provided for assisting NASA in estimating the cost, reliability, and maintenance (CRM) requirements for general avionics equipment operating in the 1980's. Practical problems of predicting these factors are examined. The usefulness and short comings of different approaches for modeling coast and reliability estimates are discussed together with special problems caused by the lack of historical data on the cost of maintaining general aviation avionics. Suggestions are offered on how NASA might proceed in assessing cost reliability CRM implications in the absence of reliable generalized predictive models.

  13. LiverTox: Advanced QSAR and Toxicogeomic Software for Hepatotoxicity Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, P-Y.; Yuracko, K.

    2011-02-25

    YAHSGS LLC and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) established a CRADA in an attempt to develop a predictive system using a pre-existing ORNL computational neural network and wavelets format. This was in the interest of addressing national needs for toxicity prediction system to help overcome the significant drain of resources (money and time) being directed toward developing chemical agents for commerce. The research project has been supported through an STTR mechanism and funded by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences beginning Phase I in 2004 (CRADA No. ORNL-04-0688) and extending Phase II through 2007 (ORNL NFE-06-00020). To attempt the research objectives and aims outlined under this CRADA, state-of-the-art computational neural network and wavelet methods were used in an effort to design a predictive toxicity system that used two independent areas on which to base the system’s predictions. These two areas were quantitative structure-activity relationships and gene-expression data obtained from microarrays. A third area, using the new Massively Parallel Signature Sequencing (MPSS) technology to assess gene expression, also was attempted but had to be dropped because the company holding the rights to this promising MPSS technology went out of business. A research-scale predictive toxicity database system called Multi-Intelligent System for Toxicogenomic Applications (MISTA) was developed and its feasibility for use as a predictor of toxicological activity was tested. The fundamental focus of the CRADA was an attempt and effort to operate the MISTA database using the ORNL neural network. This effort indicated the potential that such a fully developed system might be used to assist in predicting such biological endpoints as hepatotoxcity and neurotoxicity. The MISTA/LiverTox approach if eventually fully developed might also be useful for automatic processing of microarray data to predict modes of action. A technical paper describing the

  14. Advanced turboprop noise prediction: Development of a code at NASA Langley based on recent theoretical results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farassat, F.; Dunn, M. H.; Padula, S. L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of a high speed propeller noise prediction code at Langley Research Center is described. The code utilizes two recent acoustic formulations in the time domain for subsonic and supersonic sources. The structure and capabilities of the code are discussed. Grid size study for accuracy and speed of execution on a computer is also presented. The code is tested against an earlier Langley code. Considerable increase in accuracy and speed of execution are observed. Some examples of noise prediction of a high speed propeller for which acoustic test data are available are given. A brisk derivation of formulations used is given in an appendix.

  15. Advanced Models and Controls for Prediction and Extension of Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-02-01

    Predictive models of capacity and power fade must consider a multiplicity of degradation modes experienced by Li-ion batteries in the automotive environment. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must presently be absorbed by overdesign and excess warranty costs. To reduce these costs and extend life, degradation models are under development that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. The lifetime models provide engineering feedback for cell, pack and system designs and are being incorporated into real-time control strategies.

  16. The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carey, L. D.; Koshak, W. J.; Peterson, H. S.; Schultz, E. V.; Matthee, R.; Schultz, C. J.; Petersen, W. A.; Bain, L.

    2012-12-01

    The objective of this preliminary study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type and extent. The mixed-phase region is where the noninductive charging (NIC) process is thought to generate most storm electrification during rebounding collisions between ice particles in the presence of supercooled water. As a result, prior radar-based studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate is well correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume, graupel mass, or ice mass flux. There is also some evidence that lightning type is associated with the convective state. Intracloud (IC) lightning tends to dominate during the updraft accumulation of precipitation ice mass while cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is more numerous during the downdraft-driven descent of radar echo associated with graupel and hail. More study is required to generalize these relationships, especially regarding lightning type, in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm kinematics, microphysics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for lightning NOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to well isolated convective cells on 3 April 2007 (single cell and multi-cell hailstorm, non-severe multi-cell) and 6 July 2007

  17. The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carey, Lawrence; Koshak, William; Petersen, Harold; Schultz, Elise; Schultz, Chris; Matthee, Retha; Bain, Lamont

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this preliminary study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type and extent. The mixed-phase region is where the noninductive charging (NIC) process is thought to generate most storm electrification during rebounding collisions between ice particles in the presence of supercooled water. As a result, prior radar-based studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate is well correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume, graupel mass, or ice mass flux. There is also some evidence that lightning type is associated with the convective state. Intracloud (IC) lightning tends to dominate during the updraft accumulation of precipitation ice mass while cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is more numerous during the downdraft-driven descent of radar echo associated with graupel and hail. More study is required to generalize these relationships, especially regarding lightning type, in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm kinematics, microphysics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for lightning NOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to well isolated convective cells on 3 April 2007 (single cell and multi-cell hailstorm, non-severe multicell) and 6 July 2007

  18. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  19. Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kranbuehl, D.; Kingsley, P.; Hart, S.; Loos, A.; Hasko, G.; Dexter, B.

    1992-01-01

    In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

  20. Evaluating the Performance of Single and Double Moment Microphysics Schemes During a Synoptic-Scale Snowfall Event

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.

    2011-01-01

    Increases in computing resources have allowed for the utilization of high-resolution weather forecast models capable of resolving cloud microphysical and precipitation processes among varying numbers of hydrometeor categories. Several microphysics schemes are currently available within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, ranging from single-moment predictions of precipitation content to double-moment predictions that include a prediction of particle number concentrations. Each scheme incorporates several assumptions related to the size distribution, shape, and fall speed relationships of ice crystals in order to simulate cold-cloud processes and resulting precipitation. Field campaign data offer a means of evaluating the assumptions present within each scheme. The Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) represented collaboration among the CloudSat, CALIPSO, and NASA Global Precipitation Measurement mission communities, to observe cold season precipitation processes relevant to forecast model evaluation and the eventual development of satellite retrievals of cloud properties and precipitation rates. During the C3VP campaign, widespread snowfall occurred on 22 January 2007, sampled by aircraft and surface instrumentation that provided particle size distributions, ice water content, and fall speed estimations along with traditional surface measurements of temperature and precipitation. In this study, four single-moment and two double-moment microphysics schemes were utilized to generate hypothetical WRF forecasts of the event, with C3VP data used in evaluation of their varying assumptions. Schemes that incorporate flexibility in size distribution parameters and density assumptions are shown to be preferable to fixed constants, and that a double-moment representation of the snow category may be beneficial when representing the effects of aggregation. These results may guide forecast centers in optimal configurations of their forecast models

  1. Development of advanced stability theory suction prediction techniques for laminar flow control. [on swept wings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Srokowski, A. J.

    1978-01-01

    The problem of obtaining accurate estimates of suction requirements on swept laminar flow control wings was discussed. A fast accurate computer code developed to predict suction requirements by integrating disturbance amplification rates was described. Assumptions and approximations used in the present computer code are examined in light of flow conditions on the swept wing which may limit their validity.

  2. Advances in Toxico-Cheminformatics: Supporting a New Paradigm for Predictive Toxicology

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s National Center for Computational Toxicology is building capabilities to support a new paradigm for toxicity screening and prediction through the harnessing of legacy toxicity data, creation of data linkages, and generation of new high-throughput screening (HTS) data. The D...

  3. GPU-Accelerated Stony-Brook University 5-class Microphysics Scheme in WRF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mielikainen, J.; Huang, B.; Huang, A.

    2011-12-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system. Microphysics plays an important role in weather and climate prediction. Several bulk water microphysics schemes are available within the WRF, with different numbers of simulated hydrometeor classes and methods for estimating their size fall speeds, distributions and densities. Stony-Brook University scheme (SBU-YLIN) is a 5-class scheme with riming intensity predicted to account for mixed-phase processes. In the past few years, co-processing on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) has been a disruptive technology in High Performance Computing (HPC). GPUs use the ever increasing transistor count for adding more processor cores. Therefore, GPUs are well suited for massively data parallel processing with high floating point arithmetic intensity. Thus, it is imperative to update legacy scientific applications to take advantage of this unprecedented increase in computing power. CUDA is an extension to the C programming language offering programming GPU's directly. It is designed so that its constructs allow for natural expression of data-level parallelism. A CUDA program is organized into two parts: a serial program running on the CPU and a CUDA kernel running on the GPU. The CUDA code consists of three computational phases: transmission of data into the global memory of the GPU, execution of the CUDA kernel, and transmission of results from the GPU into the memory of CPU. CUDA takes a bottom-up point of view of parallelism is which thread is an atomic unit of parallelism. Individual threads are part of groups called warps, within which every thread executes exactly the same sequence of instructions. To test SBU-YLIN, we used a CONtinental United States (CONUS) benchmark data set for 12 km resolution domain for October 24, 2001. A WRF domain is a geographic region of interest discretized into a 2-dimensional grid parallel to the ground. Each grid point has

  4. In silico assessment of the acute toxicity of chemicals: recent advances and new model for multitasking prediction of toxic effect.

    PubMed

    Kleandrova, Valeria V; Luan, Feng; Speck-Planche, Alejandro; Cordeiro, M Natália D S

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of acute toxicity is one of the most important stages to ensure the safety of chemicals with potential applications in pharmaceutical sciences, biomedical research, or any other industrial branch. A huge and indiscriminate number of toxicity assays have been carried out on laboratory animals. In this sense, computational approaches involving models based on quantitative-structure activity/toxicity relationships (QSAR/QSTR) can help to rationalize time and financial costs. Here, we discuss the most significant advances in the last 6 years focused on the use of QSAR/QSTR models to predict acute toxicity of drugs/chemicals in laboratory animals, employing large and heterogeneous datasets. The advantages and drawbacks of the different QSAR/QSTR models are analyzed. As a contribution to the field, we introduce the first multitasking (mtk) QSTR model for simultaneous prediction of acute toxicity of compounds by considering different routes of administration, diverse breeds of laboratory animals, and the reliability of the experimental conditions. The mtk-QSTR model was based on artificial neural networks (ANN), allowing the classification of compounds as toxic or non-toxic. This model correctly classified more than 94% of the 1646 cases present in the whole dataset, and its applicability was demonstrated by performing predictions of different chemicals such as drugs, dietary supplements, and molecules which could serve as nanocarriers for drug delivery. The predictions given by the mtk-QSTR model are in very good agreement with the experimental results. PMID:25694074

  5. Low acute hematological toxicity during chemotherapy predicts reduced disease control in advanced Hodgkin's disease.

    PubMed

    Brosteanu, O; Hasenclever, D; Loeffler, M; Diehl, V

    2004-03-01

    Chemotherapy-treated patients with advanced Hodgkin's disease (HD) differ considerably in acute hematotoxicity. Hematotoxicity may be indicative of pharmacological and metabolic heterogeneity. We hypothesized that low hematotoxicity might correlate with reduced systemic dose and thus reduced disease control. A total of 266 patients with advanced HD treated with cyclophosphamide, vincristine, procarbazine, prednisone, doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (COPP-ABVD) were analyzed (HD6 trial of the German Hodgkin's Lymphoma Study Group). The reported WHO grade of leukocytopenia was averaged over chemotherapy cycles given and weighted with the reciprocal dose intensity of the corresponding cycle. The low and high toxicity groups were defined in retrospect as having had an averaged WHO grade of leukocytopenia 2.1, respectively. The independent impact of low hematological toxicity on freedom from treatment failure (FFTF) was assessed multivariately adjusting for the international prognostic score for advanced HD. The results were validated in two independent cohorts [181 patients treated with COPP-ABVD (HD9-trial) and 250 patients treated with COPP-ABV-ifosfamide, methotrexate, etoposide, and prednisone (IMEP) (HD6 trial)]. The 5-year FFTF rates were 68% for patients with high toxicity vs 47% for patients with low toxicity [multivariate relative risk (RR) 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-3.0, p=0.0002]. Patients with low toxicity received significantly higher nominal dose ( p=0.02) and dose intensity ( p<0.0001). This finding was confirmed in both validation cohorts (multivariate RR 2.1, 95% CI 1.2-3.8, p=0.01 and RR 1.5, 95% CI 1.01-2.26, p=0.04, respectively). Patients with low hematotoxicity have significantly higher failure rates despite higher doses and dose intensity. Hematotoxicity is an independent prognostic factor for treatment outcome. This observation suggests a strategy of individualized dosing adapted to hematotoxicity

  6. Remote Sensing of Aerosol Optical and Microphysical Properties using Polarization and Lidar Techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mishchenko, Michael

    2003-01-01

    Tropospheric aerosols cause a substantial forcing of the terrestrial climate, but the magnitude of this forcing remains largely unknown. This explains the significant interest of the climate community to the prospect of measuring key aerosol properties from space using advanced remote sensing techniques. It has been known for a long time that polarization of the scattered light is much more sensitive to the aerosol microphysics than the scattered intensity. It is, therefore, not surprising that the most recent addition to the New Polar Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) payload is the so-called Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS). The main objective of this instrument is to measure the aerosol and cloud properties with accuracy and coverage sufficient for a reliable estimate of the direct and indirect aerosol forcings of climate. Accordingly, the first part of this lecture course will focus on describing the basic concept of the APS, the physical principles of polarization data analyses, and the results already obtained with an aircraft version of the APS. Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) represent another poorly understood aerosol component of the terrestrial atmosphere which affects the climate by supporting chemical reactions destroying the ozone layer. The high altitude of the PSCs and their predominant occurrence in high latitude and polar regions make it very difficult to study PSCs using conventional in situ techniques. Most of the information that we have about this type of clouds has been gathered using ground-based polarization lidars. The second part of the course will focus on explaining the physical principles of the polarization lidar technique and describing retrievals of PSC particle microphysical characteristics by converting I multispectral lidar measurements of the backscattered intensity and depolarization.

  7. Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science.

    PubMed

    Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

    2016-01-01

    One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets. PMID:27532883

  8. Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science

    PubMed Central

    Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

    2016-01-01

    One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets. PMID:27532883

  9. Microphysical simulations of sulfur burdens from stratospheric sulfur geoengineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    English, J. M.; Toon, O. B.; Mills, M. J.

    2012-01-01

    Recent microphysical studies suggest that geoengineering by continuous stratospheric injection of SO2 gas may be limited by the growth of the aerosols. We study the efficacy of SO2, H2SO4 and aerosol injections on aerosol mass and optical depth using a three-dimensional general circulation model with sulfur chemistry and sectional aerosol microphysics (WACCM/CARMA). We find increasing injection rates of SO2 in a narrow band around the equator to have limited efficacy while broadening the injecting zone as well as injecting particles instead of SO2 gas increases the sulfate burden for a given injection rate, in agreement with previous work. We find that injecting H2SO4 gas instead of SO2 does not discernibly alter sulfate size or mass, in contrast with a previous study using a plume model with a microphysical model. However, the physics and chemistry in aircraft plumes, which are smaller than climate model grid cells, need to be more carefully considered. We find equatorial injections increase aerosol optical depth in the Northern Hemisphere more than the Southern Hemisphere, potentially inducing regional climate changes. We also find significant perturbations to tropospheric aerosol for all injections studied, particularly in the upper troposphere and near the poles, where sulfate burden increases by up to 100 times. This enhanced burden could have implications for tropospheric radiative forcing and chemistry. These results highlight the need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions through means other than geoengineering, and to further study geoengineering before it can be seriously considered as a climate intervention option.

  10. Microphysical properties of low clouds over the North Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maruyama, Takumi; Hayasaka, Tadahiro

    2012-11-01

    Low clouds are widespread over the North Pacific Ocean during summer. Past ship observations, which were carried out in the western region of the North Pacific Ocean, suggested that low clouds (stratus and fog) are likely to occur when sea surface temperature (SST) is lower than surface air temperature (SAT). In this study, we investigated the SST-SAT relationship and microphysical properties of low clouds for the first step of understanding the mechanism of cloud occurrence, maintenance and disappearance by using MODIS satellite observations, JAMSTEC ship observations and MERRA reanalysis data. We divided the North Pacific into four regions according to meteorological condition and made basic statistical analysis about cloud properties in each region by using monthly mean data for July 2011. The statistical analysis indicates that in the central region of the North Pacific where SST-SAT value is negative and the difference is the largest, cloud effective particle radius (re) is larger than those in other regions. We also used ship observation data and simultaneous satellite observation data to examine the relationship between SST-SAT and cloud microphysical properties in detail. This analysis indicates that re in the positive SST-SAT area is larger than that in the negative SSTSAT area. This feature is opposite to the monthly mean results. It suggests that other factors such as humidity and aerosols as well as SST-SAT have to be taken into account, although the SST-SAT relationship can be one of the important factors determining cloud microphysical properties in the summer North Pacific region.

  11. Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sreekanth, T. S.

    Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three

  12. Predicting Earthquake Occurrence at Subduction-Zone Plate Boundaries Through Advanced Computer Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsu'Ura, M.; Hashimoto, C.; Fukuyama, E.

    2004-12-01

    In general, predicting the occurrence of earthquakes is very difficult, because of the complexity of actual faults and nonlinear interaction between them. From the standpoint of earthquake prediction, however, our target is limited to the large events that completely break down a seismogenic zone. To such large events we may apply the concept of the earthquake cycle. The entire process of earthquake generation cycles generally consists of tectonic loading due to relative plate motion, quasi-static rupture nucleation, dynamic rupture propagation and stop, and restoration of fault strength. This process can be completely described by a coupled nonlinear system, which consists of an elastic/viscoelastic slip-response function that relates fault slip to shear stress change and a fault constitutive law that prescribes change in shear strength with fault slip and contact time. The shear stress and the shear strength are related with each other through boundary conditions on the fault. The driving force of this system is observed relative plate motion. The system to describe the earthquake generation cycle is conceptually quite simple. The complexity in practical modeling mainly comes from complexity in structure of the real earth. Recently, we have developed a physics-based, predictive simulation system for earthquake generation at plate boundaries in and around Japan, where the four plates of Pacific, North American, Philippine Sea and Eurasian are interacting with each other. The simulation system consists of a crust-mantle structure model, a quasi-static tectonic loading model, and a dynamic rupture propagation model. First, we constructed a realistic 3D model of plate interfaces in and around Japan by applying an inversion technique to ISC hypocenter data, and computed viscoelastic slip-response functions for this structure model. Second, we introduced the slip- and time-dependent fault constitutive law with an inherent strength-restoration mechanism as a basic

  13. Analysis of TRMM Microphysical Measurements: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    SPEC Incorporated participated in three of the four TRMM field campaigns (TEFLUN-A, TEFLUN-B and KWAJEX), installing and operating a cloud particle imager (CPI) and a high volume precipitation spectrometer (HVPS) on the SPEC Learjet in TEFLUN-A, the University of North Dakota Citation in TEFLUN-B and KWAJEX, and a CPI on the NASA DC-8 in KWAJEX. This report presents and discusses new software tools and algorithms that were developed to analyze microphysical data collected during these field campaigns, as well as scientific interpretations of the data themselves. Software algorithms were developed to improve the analysis of microphysical measurements collected by the TRMM aircraft during the field campaigns. Particular attention was paid to developing and/or improving algorithms used to compute particle size distributions and ice water content. Software was also developed in support of production of the TRMM Common Microphysical Product (CMP) data files. CMP data files for TEFLUN-A field campaign were produced and submitted to the DAAC. Typical microphysical properties of convective and stratiform regions from TEFLUN-A and KWAJEX clouds were produced. In general, it was found that in the upper cloud region near -20 to -25 C, stratiform clouds contain very high (greater than 1 per cubic centimeter) concentrations of small ice particles, which are suspected to be a residual from homogeneous freezing and sedimentation of small drops in a convective updraft. In the upper cloud region near -20 to -25 C, convective clouds contain aggregates, which are not found lower in the cloud. Stratiform clouds contain aggregates at all levels, with the majority in the lowest levels. Convective cloud regions contain much higher LWC and drop concentrations than stratiform regions at all levels, and higher LWC in the middle and upper regions. Stratiform clouds contain higher IWC than convective clouds only at the lowest level. Irregular shaped ice particles are found in very high

  14. On the microphysical state of the surface of Triton

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eluszkiewicz, Janusz

    1991-01-01

    The microphysical processes involved in the pressureless sintering of particulate materials and the physical conditions likely to prevail on Triton are examined in order to investigate the processes leading to the frost metamorphism on Triton. It is argued that the presence of a well-annealed transparent nitrogen layer offers a natural explanation for most of what is seen on the surface of Triton; results of observations suggest that such a layer can form on Triton at 37 K on a seasonal time scale (about 100 earth years), provided the initial grain diameter is less than 1 micron. Grains up to 10 microns are allowed if grain growth does not hinder densification.

  15. Cirrus microphysics and infrared radiative transfer: A case study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ackerman, Thomas P.; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Valero, Francisco P. J.; Kinne, Stefan

    1988-01-01

    Coincident measurements of cirrus cloud microphysical properties such as particle size distribution and particle shape and morphology, and measurements of infrared intensity and flux were made. Data was acquired nearly simultaneously in space and time by a KingAir in cloud and by an ER-2 at an altitude of 19 km. Upwelling infrared intensities and fluxes measured from the ER-2 and observations of cloud particle size distributions and particle phase and morphology made from the KingAir are discussed. Broad-band flux measurements were available both in and below the cirrus layer from the KingAir.

  16. Studying the Microphysics of Superhydrophobic Surfaces using DNS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alame, Karim; Mahesh, Krishnan

    2014-11-01

    DNS using the volume of fluid methodology will be used to study the microphysics of the gas-water interfaces in super-hydrophobic surfaces. The numerical method will be summarized along with relevant validation examples. The effect of pressure difference on an interface between solid walls will be discussed and contrasted to theory. Modes of interface failure will be presented. Simulations of channel flow with gas trapped in single longitudinal groove will be discussed and contrasted to results from approximate modeling approaches. Implications for air-layer drag reduction will be discussed. Supported by Office of Naval Research.

  17. Microphysical properties of semi-transparent cirrus from AIRS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guignard, Anthony; Stubenrauch, Claudia; Cros, Sylvain; Lamquin, Nicolas; Baran, Anthony

    2010-05-01

    Cirrus covers about 30% of the globe and has been identified as one of the most influential atmospheric components on the Earth's radiative budget. In order to improve the parameterization of cirrus clouds within GCMs, modellers need long term records of cloud properties. Due to their complex microphysical characteristics (consisting of non-spherical ice crystals of various shapes and sizes) their physical and radiative properties are still not completely understood. Because of its high spectral resolution, the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) onboard the NASA Aqua satellite is used for the identification of cirrus clouds night and day. AIRS can be easily collocated with the spaceborne lidar CALIOP of the CALIPSO mission and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) of the CloudSat mission, as these instruments are part of the A-Train (a constellation of satellites that share the same orbit). These active instruments deliver accurate information on multi-layered clouds and geometrical cirrus thickness. We take advantage of the synergy between these passive and active remote sensing instruments to design a microphysical property retrieval for semi-transparent ice clouds. A subset of 17 channels between 8 and 12.5 micron has been selected in order to retrieve the effective diameter (De) and the ice water path (IWP) of the cirrus. The retrieval of De is based on spectral differences of cirrus emissivities. Relationships are complex and non-linear. Therefore we simulate these emissivities for a large range of values for De and IWP and for two ice crystal shapes (randomly oriented columns and aggregates). Ice crystal single scattering properties have been integrated over a bimodal size distribution and have been implemented into the 4A radiative transfer model coupled with Disort (taking into account multiple scattering) to generate look up tables that link these emissivities to the microphysical properties. We only consider clouds with temperatures less than 260 K and

  18. Separating dynamical and microphysical impacts of aerosols on deep convection applying piggybacking methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grabowski, Wojciech W.

    2016-04-01

    Formation and growth of cloud and precipitation particles ("cloud microphysics") affect cloud dynamics and such macroscopic cloud field properties as the mean surface rainfall, cloud cover, and liquid/ice water paths. Traditional approaches to investigate the impacts involve parallel simulations with different microphysical schemes or with different scheme parameters (such as the assumed droplet/ice concentration for single-moment bulk schemes or the assumed CCN/IN concentration for double-moment schemes). Such methodologies are not reliable because of the natural variability of a cloud field that is affected by the feedback between cloud microphysics and cloud dynamics. In a nutshell, changing the cloud microphysics leads to a different realization of the cloud-scale flow, and separating dynamical and microphysical impacts is cumbersome. A novel modeling methodology, referred to as the microphysical piggybacking, was recently developed to separate purely microphysical effects from the impact on the dynamics. The main idea is to use two sets of thermodynamic variables driven by two microphysical schemes or by the same scheme with different scheme parameters. One set is coupled to the dynamics and drives the simulation, and the other set piggybacks the simulated flow, that is, it responds to the simulated flow but does not affect it. By switching the sets (i.e., the set driving the simulation becomes the piggybacking one, and vice versa), the impact on the cloud dynamics can be isolated from purely microphysical effects. Application of this methodology to the daytime deep convection development over land based on the observations during the Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA) field project in Amazonia will be discussed applying single-moment and double-moment bulk microphysics schemes. We show that the new methodology documents a small indirect aerosol impact on convective dynamics, and a strong microphysical effect. These results question the postulated strong

  19. Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) architecture optimization strategies for a memory-bound Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Goddard microphysics scheme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mielikainen, Jarno; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen H.

    2014-10-01

    The Goddard cloud microphysics scheme is a sophisticated cloud microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF is a widely used weather prediction system in the world. It development is a done in collaborative around the globe. The Goddard microphysics scheme is very suitable for massively parallel computation as there are no interactions among horizontal grid points. Compared to the earlier microphysics schemes, the Goddard scheme incorporates a large number of improvements. Thus, we have optimized the code of this important part of WRF. In this paper, we present our results of optimizing the Goddard microphysics scheme on Intel Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) hardware. The Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor is the first product based on Intel MIC architecture, and it consists of up to 61 cores connected by a high performance on-die bidirectional interconnect. The Intel MIC is capable of executing a full operating system and entire programs rather than just kernels as the GPU do. The MIC coprocessor supports all important Intel development tools. Thus, the development environment is familiar one to a vast number of CPU developers. Although, getting a maximum performance out of MICs will require using some novel optimization techniques. Those optimization techniques are discusses in this paper. The results show that the optimizations improved performance of the original code on Xeon Phi 7120P by a factor of 4.7x. Furthermore, the same optimizations improved performance on a dual socket Intel Xeon E5-2670 system by a factor of 2.8x compared to the original code.

  20. Predictive and prognostic biomarkers for neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Lim, S H; Chua, W; Henderson, C; Ng, W; Shin, J-S; Chantrill, L; Asghari, R; Lee, C S; Spring, K J; de Souza, P

    2015-10-01

    Locally advanced rectal cancer is regularly treated with trimodality therapy consisting of neoadjuvant chemoradiation, surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. There is a need for biomarkers to assess treatment response, and aid in stratification of patient risk to adapt and personalise components of the therapy. Currently, pathological stage and tumour regression grade are used to assess response. Experimental markers include proteins involved in cell proliferation, apoptosis, angiogenesis, the epithelial to mesenchymal transition and microsatellite instability. As yet, no single marker is sufficiently robust to have clinical utility. Microarrays that screen a tumour for multiple promising candidate markers, gene expression and microRNA profiling will likely have higher yield and it is expected that a combination or panel of markers would prove most useful. Moving forward, utilising serial samples of circulating tumour cells or circulating nucleic acids can potentially allow us to demonstrate tumour heterogeneity, document mutational changes and subsequently measure treatment response. PMID:26032919

  1. Prediction of Unsteady Blade Surface Pressures on an Advanced Propeller at an Angle of Attack

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1989-01-01

    The numerical solution of the unsteady, three-dimensional, Euler equations is considered in order to obtain the blade surface pressures of an advanced propeller at an angle of attack. The specific configuration considered is the SR7L propeller at cruise conditions with a 4.6 deg inflow angle corresponding to the plus 2 deg nacelle tilt of the Propeller Test Assessment (PTA) flight test condition. The results indicate nearly sinusoidal response of the blade loading, with angle of attack. For the first time, detailed variations of the chordwise loading as a function of azimuthal angle are presented. It is observed that the blade is lightly loaded for part of the revolution and shocks appear from hub to about 80 percent radial station for the highly loaded portion of the revolution.

  2. Prediction of unsteady blade surface pressures on an advanced propeller at an angle of attack

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nallasamy, M.; Groeneweg, J. F.

    1989-01-01

    The paper considers the numerical solution of the unsteady, three-dimensional, Euler equations to obtain the blade surface pressures of an advanced propeller at an angle of attack. The specific configuration considered is the SR7L propeller at cruise conditions with a 4.6 deg inflow angle corresponding to the +2 deg nacelle tilt of the Propeller Test Assessment (PTA) flight test condition. The results indicate nearly sinusoidal response of the blade loading, with angle of attack. For the first time, detailed variations of the chordwise loading as a function of azimuthal angle are presented. It is observed that the blade is lightly loaded for part of the revolution and shocks appear from hub to about 80 percent radial station for the highly loaded portion of the revolution.

  3. Performance Prediction for a Hockey-Puck Silicon Crystal Monochromator at the Advanced Photon Source

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zunping; Rosenbaum, Gerd; Navrotski, Gary

    2014-03-01

    One of the Key Performance Parameters of the upgrade of the Advanced Photon Source (APS) is the increase of the storage ring current from 100 to 150 mA. In order to anticipate the impact of this increased heat load on the X-ray optics of the beamlines, the APS has implemented a systematic review, by means of finite element analysis and computational fluid dynamics, of the thermal performance of the different types of monochromators installed at the highest-heat-load insertion device beamlines. We present here simulations of the performance of a directly liquid nitrogen-cooled silicon crystal, the hockey-puck design. Calculations of the temperature and slope error at multiple ring currents under multiple operational conditions, including the influence of power, cooling, and diffraction surface thickness are included.

  4. Prognostic and Predictive Blood-Based Biomarkers in Patients with Advanced Pancreatic Cancer: Results from CALGB80303 (Alliance)

    PubMed Central

    Nixon, Andrew B.; Pang, Herbert; Starr, Mark D.; Friedman, Paula N.; Bertagnolli, Monica M.; Kindler, Hedy L.; Goldberg, Richard M.; Venook, Alan P.; Hurwitz, Herbert I.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose CALGB80303 was a phase III trial of 602 patients with locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic cancer comparing gemcitabine/bevacizumab versus gemcitabine/placebo. The study found no benefit in any outcome from the addition of bevacizumab to gemcitabine. Blood samples were collected and multiple angiogenic factors were evaluated and then correlated with clinical outcome in general (prognostic markers) and with benefit specifically from bevacizumab treatment (predictive markers). Experimental Design Plasma samples were analyzed via a novel multiplex ELISA platform for 31 factors related to tumor growth, angiogenesis, and inflammation. Baseline values for these factors were correlated with overall survival (OS) using univariate Cox proportional hazard regression models and multivariable Cox regression models with leave-one-out cross validation. Predictive markers were identified using a treatment by marker interaction term in the Cox model. Results Baseline plasma was available from 328 patients. Univariate prognostic markers for OS were identified including: Ang2, CRP, ICAM-1, IGFBP-1, TSP-2 (all P < 0.001). These prognostic factors were found to be highly significant, even after adjustment for known clinical factors. Additional modeling approaches yielded prognostic signatures from multivariable Cox regression. The gemcitabine/bevacizumab signature consisted of IGFBP-1, interleukin-6, PDGF-AA, PDGF-BB, TSP-2; whereas the gemcitabine/ placebo signature consisted of CRP, IGFBP-1, PAI-1, PDGF-AA, P-selectin (both P < 0.0001). Finally, three potential predictive markers of bevacizumab efficacy were identified: VEGF-D (P <0.01), SDF1 (P <0.05), and Ang2 (P < 0.05). Conclusion This study identified strong prognostic markers for pancreatic cancer patients. Predictive marker analysis indicated that plasma levels of VEGF-D, Ang2, and SDF1 significantly predicted for benefit or lack of benefit from bevacizumab in this population. PMID:24097873

  5. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - DYNAMO Recent Project Advancements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.; Higgins, W.

    2013-12-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within the Earth System Science (ESS) Division at NOAA's Climate Program Office. Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO): The Indian Ocean is one of Earth's most sensitive regions because the interactions between ocean and atmosphere there have a discernable effect on global climate patterns. The tropical weather that brews in that region can move eastward along the equator and reverberate around the globe, shaping weather and climate in far-off places. The vehicle for this variability is a phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. The MJO, which originates over the Indian Ocean roughly every 30 to 90 days, is known to influence the Asian and Australian monsoons. It can also enhance hurricane activity in the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, trigger torrential rainfall along the west coast of North America, and affect the onset of El Niño. CVP-funded scientists participated in the DYNAMO field campaign in 2011-12. Results from this international campaign are expected to improve researcher's insights into this influential phenomenon. A better understanding of the processes governing MJO is an essential step toward

  6. Advancing Ensemble Streamflow Prediction with Stochastic Meteorological Forcings for Hydrologic Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caraway, N.; Wood, A. W.; Rajagopalan, B.; Zagona, E. A.; Daugherty, L.

    2012-12-01

    River Forecast Centers of National Weather Service (NWS) produce seasonal streamflow forecasts via a method called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). NWS ESP forces the temperature index Snow17 and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SAC-SMA) models with historical weather sequences for the forecasting period, starting from models' current watershed initial conditions, to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. There are two major drawbacks of this method: (i) the ensembles are limited to the length of historical, limiting ensemble variability and (ii) incorporating seasonal climate forecasts (e.g., El Nino Southern Oscillation) relies on adjustment or weighting of ESP streamflow sequences. These drawbacks motivate the research presented here, which has two components: (i) a multi-site stochastic weather generator and (ii) generation of ensemble weather forecast inputs to the NWS model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. We enhanced the K-nearest neighbor bootstrap based stochastic generator include: (i) clustering the forecast locations into climatologically homogeneous regions to better capture the spatial heterogeneity and, (ii) conditioning the weather forecasts on a probabilistic seasonal climate forecast. This multi-site stochastic weather generator runs in R and the NWS models run within the new Community Hydrologic Prediction System, a forecasting sequence we label WG-ESP. The WG-ESP framework was applied to generate ensemble forecasts of spring season (April-July) streamflow in the San Juan River Basin, one of the major tributaries of the Colorado River, for the period 1981-2010. The hydrologic model requires daily weather sequences at 66 locations in the basin. The enhanced daily weather generator sequences captured the distributional properties and spatial dependence of the climatological ESP, and also generated weather sequences consistent with conditioning on seasonal climate forecasts. Spring season ensemble forecast lead times from

  7. Microphysics in the Multi-Scale Modeling Systems with Unified Physics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, J.; Lamg, S.; Matsui, T.; Shen, B.; Zeng, X.; Shi, R.

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the microphysics developments of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the heavy precipitation processes will be presented.

  8. An Intercomparison of Microphysical Retrieval Algorithms for Upper-Tropospheric Ice Clouds

    SciTech Connect

    Comstock, Jennifer M.; d'Entremont, Robert; DeSlover, Daniel; Mace, Gerald G.; Matrosov, S. Y.; McFarlane, Sally A.; Minnis, Patrick; Mitchell, David; Sassen, Kenneth; Shupe, Matthew D.; Turner, David D.; Wang, Zhien

    2007-02-01

    The large horizontal extent, location in the cold upper troposphere, and ice composition make cirrus clouds important modulators of the earth’s radiation budget and climate. Cirrus cloud microphysical properties are difficult to measure and model because they are inhomogeneous in nature and their ice crystal size distribution and habit are not well characterized. Accurate retrievals of cloud properties are crucial for improving the representation of cloud scale processes in large-scale models and for accurately predicting the earth’s future climate. A number of passive and active remote sensing retrievals exist for estimating the microphysical properties of upper tropospheric clouds. We believe significant progress has been made in the evolution of these retrieval algorithms in the last decade; however, there is room for improvement. Members of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (ARM) Cloud Properties Working Group are involved in an intercomparison of optical depth (tau), ice water path, and characteristic particle size in ice clouds retrieved using ground-based instruments. The goals of this intercomparison are to evaluate the accuracy of state-of-the-art algorithms, quantify the uncertainties, and make recommendations for improvement. Currently, there is significant scatter in the algorithms for difficult clouds with very small optical depths (tau<0.3) and thick ice clouds (tau>1). The good news is that for thin cirrus (0.3

  9. Multi-frequency radar studies of PMSE: statistical properties, microphysical results, and electron densities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Qiang; Rapp, Markus

    It is now common belief that polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE) originate from turbu-lence induced scatter in combination with a large Schmidt number due to the presence of charged ice particles. This theory predicts a distinct frequency dependence of PMSE signal strength such that simultaneous observations of PMSE at two well separated frequencies should allow to gain quantitative information about relevant atmospheric parameters such as ice particle properties. In this study, we first present the statistical properties of PMSE obtained from the simultaneous observations with the EISCAT Svalbard radar and the SOUSY Svalbard radar (collocated near Longyearbern (78oN, 16oE), with frequencies of 500 and 53.5 MHz, respec-tively) in June 2006 and also with the EISCAT VHF and UHF radars (collocated near Tromso (69oN, 19oE), with frequencies of 224 and 930 MHz, respectively) between 2003 and 2007. According to the above mentioned theory, volume reflectivity-ratios of PMSE simultaneously observed at two frequencies can be used to calculate the Schmidt number and hence radii of the charged aerosol particles. We have done this exercise for the calibrated observations with the ESR-SSR and with the EISCAT VHF-UHF radars, respectively. The resulting particle radii both display excellent agreement with expectations from microphysical models and indepen-dent observations of microphysical ice parameters. Finally, observations of electron densities with the EISCAT UHF-radar (i.e., in the absence of UHF-PMSE) have been used to interpret simultaneous and common volume observations of PMSE with the EISCAT VHF-radar. Key words: Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes, Schmidt number, volume reflectivity

  10. Usefulness of human epididymis protein 4 in predicting cytoreductive surgical outcomes for advanced ovarian tubal and peritoneal carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Zhijian; Chang, Xiaohong; Ye, Xue; Li, Yi; Cheng, Hongyan

    2015-01-01

    Objective Human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) is a promising biomarker of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). But its role in assessing the primary optimal debulking (OD) of EOC remains unknown. The purpose of this study is to elucidate the ability of preoperative HE4 in predicting the primary cytoreductive outcomes in advanced EOC, tubal or peritoneal carcinoma. Methods We reviewed the records of 90 patients with advanced ovarian, tubal or peritoneal carcinoma who underwent primary cytoreduction at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of Peking University People’s Hospital between November 2005 and October 2010. Preoperative serum HE4 and CA125 levels were detected with EIA kit. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the most useful HE4 cut-off value. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify significant preoperative clinical characteristics to predict optimal primary cytoreduction. Results OD was achieved in 47.7% (43/48) of patients. The median preoperative HE4 level for patients with OD vs. suboptimal debulking was 423 and 820 pmol/L, respectively (P<0.001). The areas under the ROC curve for HE4 and CA125 were 0.716 and 0.599, respectively (P=0.080). The most useful HE4 cut-off value was 473 pmol/L. Suboptimal cytoreduction was obtained in 66.7% (38/57) of cases with HE4 ≥473 pmol/L compared with only 27.3% (9/33) of cases with HE4 <473 pmol/L. At this threshold, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for diagnosing suboptimal debulking were 81%, 56%, 67%, and 73%, respectively. Logistic regression analysis showed that the patients with HE4 ≥473 pmol/L were less likely to achieve OD (odds ratio =5.044, P=0.002). Conclusions Preoperative serum HE4 may be helpful to predict whether optimal cytoreductive surgery could be obtained or whether extended cytoreduction would be needed by an interdisciplinary team. PMID:26157328

  11. A computational framework to advance hydrometeorological prediction capabilities in cold regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, M. P.; Kavetski, D.; Slater, A. G.; Lundquist, J. D.; Wood, A. W.; Gochis, D. J.; Gutmann, E. D.; Rasmussen, R.

    2012-12-01

    Many different modeling groups recognize the need for new computational frameworks for use as both (i) a model development tool to evaluate competing process representations; and (ii) a predictive tool to reliably represent model uncertainty. Here we describe a computational framework to explore different approaches for modeling the hydrology and thermodynamics of snow and partially frozen soils. The framework has two main features: it has a "numerically agile" structural core to support evaluating the impact of different numerical approximations (e.g., vertical discretization, linearizations, etc.), and it has the modularity to support experimenting with different constitutive functions and boundary conditions. The broad flexibility of the framework facilitates constructing multiple equally plausible model realizations - these realizations can be used either as ensembles to represent model uncertainty, or examined in a systematic way to isolate the impact of individual model components on model predictions and hence facilitate a controlled approach to hypothesis testing. Application of the framework in different snow environments emphasizes the impact of (and interactions among) different modeling decisions. The approaches used to parameterize turbulent heat fluxes, parameters controlling the storage of liquid water in the snowpack, and the lower boundary conditions for hydrology were especially important in the case studies examined. More generally, results show that the impacts of differences in model structure are often overwhelmed by uncertainty in a-priori estimates of model parameters, and suggest that careful specification of probability distributions of model parameters can be used to represent model uncertainty.

  12. A model to predict deflection of bevel-tipped active needle advancing in soft tissue.

    PubMed

    Datla, Naresh V; Konh, Bardia; Honarvar, Mohammad; Podder, Tarun K; Dicker, Adam P; Yu, Yan; Hutapea, Parsaoran

    2014-03-01

    Active needles are recently being developed to improve steerability and placement accuracy for various medical applications. These active needles can bend during insertion by actuators attached to their bodies. The bending of active needles enables them to be steered away from the critical organs on the way to target and accurately reach target locations previously unachievable with conventional rigid needles. These active needles combined with an asymmetric bevel-tip can further improve their steerability. To optimize the design and to develop accurate path planning and control algorithms, there is a need to develop a tissue-needle interaction model. This work presents an energy-based model that predicts needle deflection of active bevel-tipped needles when inserted into the tissue. This current model was based on an existing energy-based model for bevel-tipped needles, to which work of actuation was included in calculating the system energy. The developed model was validated with needle insertion experiments with a phantom material. The model predicts needle deflection reasonably for higher diameter needles (11.6% error), whereas largest error was observed for the smallest needle diameter (24.7% error). PMID:24296105

  13. MicroRNA-31 Emerges as a Predictive Biomarker of Pathological Response and Outcome in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Caramés, Cristina; Cristobal, Ion; Moreno, Víctor; Marín, Juan P; González-Alonso, Paula; Torrejón, Blanca; Minguez, Pablo; Leon, Ana; Martín, José I; Hernández, Roberto; Pedregal, Manuel; Martín, María J; Cortés, Delia; García-Olmo, Damian; Fernández, María J; Rojo, Federico; García-Foncillas, Jesús

    2016-01-01

    Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision has emerged as the standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients. However, many cases do not respond to neoadjuvant CRT, suffering unnecessary toxicities and surgery delays. Thus, identification of predictive biomarkers for neoadjuvant CRT is a current clinical need. In the present study, microRNA-31 expression was measured in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) biopsies from 78 patients diagnosed with LARC who were treated with neoadjuvant CRT. Then, the obtained results were correlated with clinical and pathological characteristics and outcome. High microRNA-31 (miR-31) levels were found overexpressed in 34.2% of cases. Its overexpression significantly predicted poor pathological response (p = 0.018) and worse overall survival (OS) (p = 0.008). The odds ratio for no pathological response among patients with miR-31 overexpression was 0.18 (Confidence Interval = 0.06 to 0.57; p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis corroborated the clinical impact of miR-31 in determining pathological response to neoadjuvant CRT as well as OS. Altogether, miR-31 quantification emerges as a novel valuable clinical tool to predict both pathological response and outcome in LARC patients. PMID:27271609

  14. MicroRNA-31 Emerges as a Predictive Biomarker of Pathological Response and Outcome in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Caramés, Cristina; Cristobal, Ion; Moreno, Víctor; Marín, Juan P.; González-Alonso, Paula; Torrejón, Blanca; Minguez, Pablo; Leon, Ana; Martín, José I.; Hernández, Roberto; Pedregal, Manuel; Martín, María J.; Cortés, Delia; García-Olmo, Damian; Fernández, María J.; Rojo, Federico; García-Foncillas, Jesús

    2016-01-01

    Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision has emerged as the standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients. However, many cases do not respond to neoadjuvant CRT, suffering unnecessary toxicities and surgery delays. Thus, identification of predictive biomarkers for neoadjuvant CRT is a current clinical need. In the present study, microRNA-31 expression was measured in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) biopsies from 78 patients diagnosed with LARC who were treated with neoadjuvant CRT. Then, the obtained results were correlated with clinical and pathological characteristics and outcome. High microRNA-31 (miR-31) levels were found overexpressed in 34.2% of cases. Its overexpression significantly predicted poor pathological response (p = 0.018) and worse overall survival (OS) (p = 0.008). The odds ratio for no pathological response among patients with miR-31 overexpression was 0.18 (Confidence Interval = 0.06 to 0.57; p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis corroborated the clinical impact of miR-31 in determining pathological response to neoadjuvant CRT as well as OS. Altogether, miR-31 quantification emerges as a novel valuable clinical tool to predict both pathological response and outcome in LARC patients. PMID:27271609

  15. Correlation of predicted and measured thermal stresses on an advanced aircraft structure with similar materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jenkins, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    A laboratory heating test simulating hypersonic heating was conducted on a heat-sink type structure to provide basic thermal stress measurements. Six NASTRAN models utilizing various combinations of bar, shear panel, membrane, and plate elements were used to develop calculated thermal stresses. Thermal stresses were also calculated using a beam model. For a given temperature distribution there was very little variation in NASTRAN calculated thermal stresses when element types were interchanged for a given grid system. Thermal stresses calculated for the beam model compared similarly to the values obtained for the NASTRAN models. Calculated thermal stresses compared generally well to laboratory measured thermal stresses. A discrepancy of signifiance occurred between the measured and predicted thermal stresses in the skin areas. A minor anomaly in the laboratory skin heating uniformity resulted in inadequate temperature input data for the structural models.

  16. Recent advances in squamous non-small cell lung cancer: evidence beyond predictive biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Genova, Carlo; Rijavec, Erika; Grossi, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    Squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has always been characterized by a limited number of therapeutic options and by the lack of actionable biomarkers compared to its non-squamous counterpart. Recent clinical trials have led to the approval of new anti-neoplastic drugs available to both non-squamous and squamous NSCLC, consisting in a vascular-disrupting agent and two immune check-point inhibitors; additionally, a monoclonal antibody targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is currently under evaluation by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). While predictive molecular biomarkers have not been identified with consistency and are still highly demanded, these agents proved themselves noteworthy and can be considered a powerful addition to the available treatments for squamous NSCLC. PMID:26567561

  17. Advances in CFD prediction of shock wave turbulent boundary layer interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knight, Doyle; Yan, Hong; Panaras, Argyris G.; Zheltovodov, Alexander

    2003-04-01

    The paper presents a summary of recent computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of shock wave turbulent boundary layer interactions. This survey was prepared as part of the activity of NATO RTO Working Group 10 which was established in December 1998, and considers results obtained subsequent to the previous survey paper on the same topic by Knight and Degrez (“Shock Wave Boundary Layer Interactions in High Mach Number Flows-A Critical Survey of Current CFD Prediction Capabilities”, AGARD Advisory Report AR-319, Volume II, December 1998). Five configurations are considered: 2-D compression corner, 2-D shock impingement, 2-D expansion-compression corner, 3-D single fin and 3-D double fin. Recent direct numerical simulations (DNS), large eddy simulations (LES) and Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations are compared with experiment. The capabilities and limitations are described, and future research needs identified.

  18. Recovery Act. Development and Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Gutierrez, Marte

    2013-12-31

    This research project aims to develop and validate an advanced computer model that can be used in the planning and design of stimulation techniques to create engineered reservoirs for Enhanced Geothermal Systems. The specific objectives of the proposal are to; Develop a true three-dimensional hydro-thermal fracturing simulator that is particularly suited for EGS reservoir creation; Perform laboratory scale model tests of hydraulic fracturing and proppant flow/transport using a polyaxial loading device, and use the laboratory results to test and validate the 3D simulator; Perform discrete element/particulate modeling of proppant transport in hydraulic fractures, and use the results to improve understand of proppant flow and transport; Test and validate the 3D hydro-thermal fracturing simulator against case histories of EGS energy production; and Develop a plan to commercialize the 3D fracturing and proppant flow/transport simulator. The project is expected to yield several specific results and benefits. Major technical products from the proposal include; A true-3D hydro-thermal fracturing computer code that is particularly suited to EGS; Documented results of scale model tests on hydro-thermal fracturing and fracture propping in an analogue crystalline rock; Documented procedures and results of discrete element/particulate modeling of flow and transport of proppants for EGS applications; and Database of monitoring data, with focus of Acoustic Emissions (AE) from lab scale modeling and field case histories of EGS reservoir creation.

  19. Microphysics in Multi-scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2012-01-01

    Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the microphysics development and its performance for the multi-scale modeling system will be presented.

  20. Cirrus Microphysical Properties from Stellar Aureole Measurements, Phase I

    SciTech Connect

    DeVore, J. G.; Kristl, J. A.; Rappaport, S. A.

    2012-04-20

    While knowledge of the impact of aerosols on climate change has improved significantly due to the routine, ground-based, sun photometer measurements of aerosols made at AERONET sites world-wide, the impact of cirrus clouds remains much less certain because they occur high in the atmosphere and are more difficult to measure. This report documents work performed on a Phase I SBIR project to retrieve microphysical properties of cirrus ice crystals from stellar aureole imagery. The Phase I work demonstrates that (1) we have clearly measured stellar aureole profiles; (2) we can follow the aureole profiles out to ~1/4 degree from stars (~1/2 degree from Jupiter); (3) the stellar aureoles from cirrus have very distinctive profiles, being flat out to a critical angle, followed by a steep power-law decline with a slope of ~-3; (4) the profiles are well modeled using exponential size distributions; and (5) the critical angle in the profiles is ~0.12 degrees, (6) indicating that the corresponding critical size ranges from ~150 to ~200 microns. The stage has been set for a Phase II project (1) to proceed to validating the use of stellar aureole measurements for retrieving cirrus particle size distributions using comparisons with optical property retrievals from other, ground-based instruments and (2) to develop an instrument for the routine, automatic measurement of thin cirrus microphysical properties.

  1. In-Situ Microphysics from the RACORO IOP

    DOE Data Explorer

    McFarquhar, Greg

    2013-11-08

    These files were generated by Greg McFarquhar and Robert Jackson at the University of Illinois. Please contact mcfarq@atmos.uiuc.edu or rjackso2@atmos.uiuc.edu for more information or for assistance in interpreting the content of these files. We highly recommend that anyone wishing to use these files do so in a collaborative endeavor and we welcome queries and opportunities for collaboration. There are caveats associated with the use of the data which are difficult to thoroughly document and not all products for all time periods have been thoroughly examined. This is a value added data set of the best estimate of cloud microphysical parameters derived using data collected by the cloud microphysical probes installed on the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter during RACORO. These files contain best estimates of liquid size distributions N(D) in terms of droplet diameter D, liquid water content LWC, extinction of liquid drops beta, effective radius of cloud drops (re), total number concentration of droplets NT, and radar reflectivity factor Z at 1 second resolution.

  2. Anvil microphysical signatures associated with lightning-produced NOx

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stith, Jeffrey L.; Basarab, Brett; Rutledge, Steven A.; Weinheimer, Andrew

    2016-02-01

    Thunderstorm anvils were studied during the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry experiment (DC3), using in situ measurements and observations of ice particles and NOx together with radar and Lightning Mapping Array measurements. A characteristic ice particle and NOx signature was found in the anvils from three storms, each containing high lightning flash rates in the storm core prior to anvil sampling. This signature exhibits high concentrations of frozen droplets (as measured by a Cloud Droplet Probe) coincident with lower NOx on the edges of the anvil. The central portion of these anvils exhibited a high degree of aggregation of these frozen droplets and higher levels of NOx. In contrast, a deep convective cell with low lightning flash rates had high concentrations of both frozen droplets and aggregated frozen droplets in its anvil's central region. A conceptual model for these results is presented and applied to the observations from each of these storms. High NOx concentrations are often found where aggregation of frozen droplets has occurred, which may be a reflection of aggregation by electrical forces in the regions where lightning is occurring, although the level of NOx for a given concentration of aggregates varies from storm to storm. These observations between anvil microphysics and lightning and/or NOx signatures suggest that lightning data may be an important tool to characterize or infer the microphysical, radiative, and chemical properties of thunderstorm anvils.

  3. Anvil microphysical signatures associated with lightning-produced NOx

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stith, J. L.; Basarab, B.; Rutledge, S. A.; Weinheimer, A.

    2015-11-01

    Thunderstorm anvils were studied during the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry experiment (DC3), using in situ measurements and observations of ice particles and NOx together with radar and lightning mapping array measurements. A characteristic ice particle and NOx signature was found in the anvils from three storms, each containing high lightning flash rates in the storm core prior to anvil sampling. This signature exhibits high concentrations of frozen droplets (as measured by a Cloud Droplet Probe) coincident with lower NOx on the edges of the anvil. The central portion of these anvils exhibited a high degree of aggregation of these frozen droplets and higher levels of NOx. In contrast, a deep convective cell with low lightning flash rates had high concentrations of frozen droplets in its anvil's central region. A conceptual model for these results is presented. The abundance of frozen drop (chain) aggregates vs. individual frozen droplets in the central anvil region of the strong thunderstorms that were studied appears to be related to the degree of electrification (marked by increased lightning flash rates). Accordingly, the highest NOx concentrations coexist with regions where the most aggregation of frozen droplets has occurred. These observations between anvil microphysics and lightning/NOx signatures suggest that lightning data may be an important tool to characterize or infer the microphysical, radiative and chemical properties of thunderstorm anvils.

  4. Parameterizations of Cloud Microphysics and Indirect Aerosol Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2014-05-19

    1. OVERVIEW Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [NRC, 2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path [Twomey, 1977] and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage [e.g., Ackerman et al., 2000]. Enhanced aerosol concentrations can also suppress warm rain processes by producing a narrow droplet spectrum that inhibits collision and coalescence processes [e.g., Squires and Twomey, 1961; Warner and Twomey, 1967; Warner, 1968; Rosenfeld, 1999]. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect [Albrecht, 1989], is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. Table 1 summarizes the key observational studies identifying the microphysical properties, cloud characteristics, thermodynamics and dynamics associated with cloud systems from high-aerosol continental environments. For example, atmospheric aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, warm-rain process, cold-rain process, cloud-top height, the depth of the mixed phase region, and occurrence of lightning. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing an enhanced source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Hypotheses have been developed to explain the effect of urban regions on convection and precipitation [van den Heever and Cotton, 2007 and Shepherd

  5. Godunov-Based Model of Swash Zone Dynamics to Advance Coastal Flood Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shakeri Majd, M.; Sanders, B. F.

    2012-12-01

    Urbanized lowlands in southern California are defended against coastal flooding by sandy beaches that dynamically adjust to changes in water level and wave conditions, particularly during storm events. Recent research has shown that coastal flood impacts are scaled by the volume of beach overtopping flows, and an improved characterization of dynamic overtopping rates is needed to improve coastal flood forecasting (Gallien et al. 2012). However, uncertainty in the beach slope and height makes it difficult to predict the onset of overtopping and the magnitude of resulting flooding. That is, beaches may evolve significantly over a storm event. Sallenger (Sallenger, 2000) describes Impact Levels to distinguish different impact regimes (swash, collision, overwash and inundation) on dunes and barrier islands. Our goal is to model processes in different regimes as was described by him. Godunov-based models adopt a depth-integrated, two-phase approach and the shallow-water hypothesis to resolve flow and sediment transport in a tightly coupled manner that resolves shocks in the air/fluid and fluid/sediment interface. These models are best known in the context of debris flow modeling where the ability to predict the flow of highly concentrated sediment/fluid mixtures is required. Here, the approach is directed at the swash zone. Existing Godunov-based models are reviewed and shown to have drawbacks relative to wetting and drying and "avalanching"—important processes in the swash zone. This nonphysical erosion can be described as the natural tendency of the schemes to smear out steep bed slopes. To denote and reduce these numerical errors, new numerical methods are presented to address these limitations and the resulting model is applied to a set of laboratory-scale test problems. The shallow-water hypothesis limits the applicability of the model to the swash zone, so it is forced by a time series of water level and cross-shore velocity that accounts for surf zone wave

  6. Advanced Procedures for Long-Term Creep Data Prediction for 2.25 Chromium Steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittaker, Mark T.; Wilshire, Brian

    2013-01-01

    A critical review of recent creep studies concluded that traditional approaches such as steady-state behavior, power law equations, and the view that diffusional creep mechanisms are dominant at low stresses should be seriously reconsidered. Specifically, creep strain rate against time curves show that a decaying primary rate leads into an accelerating tertiary stage, giving a minimum rather than a secondary period. Conventional steady-state mechanisms should therefore be abandoned in favor of an understanding of the processes governing strain accumulation and the damage phenomena causing tertiary creep and fracture. Similarly, creep always takes place by dislocation processes, with no change to diffusional creep mechanisms with decreasing stress, negating the concept of deformation mechanism maps. Alternative descriptions are then provided by normalizing the applied stress through the ultimate tensile stress and yield stress at the creep temperature. In this way, the resulting Wilshire equations allow accurate prediction of 100,00 hours of creep data using only property values from tests lasting 5000 hours for a series of 2.25 chromium steels, namely grades 22, 23, and 24.

  7. The Fitness Landscape of HIV-1 Gag: Advanced Modeling Approaches and Validation of Model Predictions by In Vitro Testing

    PubMed Central

    Omarjee, Saleha; Walker, Bruce D.; Chakraborty, Arup; Ndung'u, Thumbi

    2014-01-01

    Viral immune evasion by sequence variation is a major hindrance to HIV-1 vaccine design. To address this challenge, our group has developed a computational model, rooted in physics, that aims to predict the fitness landscape of HIV-1 proteins in order to design vaccine immunogens that lead to impaired viral fitness, thus blocking viable escape routes. Here, we advance the computational models to address previous limitations, and directly test model predictions against in vitro fitness measurements of HIV-1 strains containing multiple Gag mutations. We incorporated regularization into the model fitting procedure to address finite sampling. Further, we developed a model that accounts for the specific identity of mutant amino acids (Potts model), generalizing our previous approach (Ising model) that is unable to distinguish between different mutant amino acids. Gag mutation combinations (17 pairs, 1 triple and 25 single mutations within these) predicted to be either harmful to HIV-1 viability or fitness-neutral were introduced into HIV-1 NL4-3 by site-directed mutagenesis and replication capacities of these mutants were assayed in vitro. The predicted and measured fitness of the corresponding mutants for the original Ising model (r = −0.74, p = 3.6×10−6) are strongly correlated, and this was further strengthened in the regularized Ising model (r = −0.83, p = 3.7×10−12). Performance of the Potts model (r = −0.73, p = 9.7×10−9) was similar to that of the Ising model, indicating that the binary approximation is sufficient for capturing fitness effects of common mutants at sites of low amino acid diversity. However, we show that the Potts model is expected to improve predictive power for more variable proteins. Overall, our results support the ability of the computational models to robustly predict the relative fitness of mutant viral strains, and indicate the potential value of this approach for understanding viral immune evasion

  8. Executive Summary of the 2015 ISCD Position Development Conference on Advanced Measures From DXA and QCT: Fracture Prediction Beyond BMD.

    PubMed

    Shepherd, John A; Schousboe, John T; Broy, Susan B; Engelke, Klaus; Leslie, William D

    2015-01-01

    There have been many scientific advances in fracture risk prediction beyond bone density. The International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) convened a Position Development Conference (PDC) on the use of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry beyond measurement of bone mineral density for fracture risk assessment, including trabecular bone score and hip geometry measures. Previously, no guidelines for nonbone mineral density DXA measures existed. Furthermore, there have been advances in the analysis of quantitative computed tomography (QCT) including finite element analysis, QCT of the hip, DXA-equivalent hip measurements, and opportunistic screening that were not included in the previous ISCD positions. The topics and questions for consideration were developed by the ISCD Board of Directors and the Scientific Advisory Committee and were designed to address the needs of clinical practitioners. Three task forces were created and asked to conduct comprehensive literature reviews to address specific questions. The task forces included participants from many countries and a variety of interests including academic institutions and private health care delivery organizations. Representatives from industry participated as consultants to the task forces. Task force reports with proposed position statements were then presented to an international panel of experts with backgrounds in bone densitometry. The PDC was held in Chicago, Illinois, USA, contemporaneously with the Annual Meeting of the ISCD, February 26 through February 28, 2015. This Executive Summary describes the methodology of the 2015 PDC on advanced measures from DXA and QCT and summarizes the approved official positions. Six separate articles in this issue will detail the rationale, discussion, and additional research topics for each question the task forces addressed. PMID:26277847

  9. HPV Genotypes Predict Survival Benefits From Concurrent Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy in Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Cervix

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Chun-Chieh; Lai, Chyong-Huey; Huang, Yi-Ting; Chao, Angel; Chou, Hung-Hsueh; Hong, Ji-Hong

    2012-11-15

    Purpose: To study the prognostic value of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes in patients with advanced cervical cancer treated with radiation therapy (RT) alone or concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT). Methods and Materials: Between August 1993 and May 2000, 327 patients with advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage III/IVA or stage IIB with positive lymph nodes) were eligible for this study. HPV genotypes were determined using the Easychip Registered-Sign HPV genechip. Outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: We detected 22 HPV genotypes in 323 (98.8%) patients. The leading 4 types were HPV16, 58, 18, and 33. The 5-year overall and disease-specific survival estimates for the entire cohort were 41.9% and 51.4%, respectively. CCRT improved the 5-year disease-specific survival by an absolute 9.8%, but this was not statistically significant (P=.089). There was a significant improvement in disease-specific survival in the CCRT group for HPV18-positive (60.9% vs 30.4%, P=.019) and HPV58-positive (69.3% vs 48.9%, P=.026) patients compared with the RT alone group. In contrast, the differences in survival with CCRT compared with RT alone in the HPV16-positive and HPV-33 positive subgroups were not statistically significant (P=.86 and P=.53, respectively). An improved disease-specific survival was observed for CCRT treated patients infected with both HPV16 and HPV18, but these differenced also were not statistically significant. Conclusions: The HPV genotype may be a useful predictive factor for the effect of CCRT in patients with advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix. Verifying these results in prospective trials could have an impact on tailoring future treatment based on HPV genotype.

  10. The value of lactate dehydrogenase serum levels as a prognostic and predictive factor for advanced pancreatic cancer patients receiving sorafenib

    PubMed Central

    Faloppi, Luca; Bianconi, Maristella; Giampieri, Riccardo; Sobrero, Alberto; Labianca, Roberto; Ferrari, Daris; Barni, Sandro; Aitini, Enrico; Zaniboni, Alberto; Boni, Corrado; Caprioni, Francesco; Mosconi, Stefania; Fanello, Silvia; Berardi, Rossana; Bittoni, Alessandro; Andrikou, Kalliopi; Cinquini, Michela; Torri, Valter; Scartozzi, Mario; Cascinu, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    Although lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) serum levels, indirect markers of angiogenesis, are associated with a worse outcome in several tumours, their prognostic value is not defined in pancreatic cancer. Moreover, high levels are associated even with a lack of efficacy of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, contributing to explain negative results in clinical trials. We assessed the role of LDH in advanced pancreatic cancer receiving sorafenib. Seventy-one of 114 patients included in the randomised phase II trial MAPS (chemotherapy plus or not sorafenib) and with available serum LDH levels, were included in this analysis. Patients were categorized according to serum LDH levels (LDH ≤vs.> upper normal rate). A significant difference was found in progression free survival (PFS) and in overall survival (OS) between patients with LDH values under or above the cut-off (PFS: 5.2 vs. 2.7 months, p = 0.0287; OS: 10.7 vs. 5.9 months, p = 0.0021). After stratification according to LDH serum levels and sorafenib treatment, patients with low LDH serum levels treated with sorafenib showed an advantage in PFS (p = 0.05) and OS (p = 0.0012). LDH appears to be a reliable parameter to assess the prognosis of advanced pancreatic cancer patients, and it may be a predictive parameter to select patients candidate to receive sorafenib. PMID:26397228

  11. The value of lactate dehydrogenase serum levels as a prognostic and predictive factor for advanced pancreatic cancer patients receiving sorafenib.

    PubMed

    Faloppi, Luca; Bianconi, Maristella; Giampieri, Riccardo; Sobrero, Alberto; Labianca, Roberto; Ferrari, Daris; Barni, Sandro; Aitini, Enrico; Zaniboni, Alberto; Boni, Corrado; Caprioni, Francesco; Mosconi, Stefania; Fanello, Silvia; Berardi, Rossana; Bittoni, Alessandro; Andrikou, Kalliopi; Cinquini, Michela; Torri, Valter; Scartozzi, Mario; Cascinu, Stefano

    2015-10-27

    Although lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) serum levels, indirect markers of angiogenesis, are associated with a worse outcome in several tumours, their prognostic value is not defined in pancreatic cancer. Moreover, high levels are associated even with a lack of efficacy of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, contributing to explain negative results in clinical trials. We assessed the role of LDH in advanced pancreatic cancer receiving sorafenib. Seventy-one of 114 patients included in the randomised phase II trial MAPS (chemotherapy plus or not sorafenib) and with available serum LDH levels, were included in this analysis. Patients were categorized according to serum LDH levels (LDH ≤ vs.> upper normal rate). A significant difference was found in progression free survival (PFS) and in overall survival (OS) between patients with LDH values under or above the cut-off (PFS: 5.2 vs. 2.7 months, p = 0.0287; OS: 10.7 vs. 5.9 months, p = 0.0021). After stratification according to LDH serum levels and sorafenib treatment, patients with low LDH serum levels treated with sorafenib showed an advantage in PFS (p = 0.05) and OS (p = 0.0012). LDH appears to be a reliable parameter to assess the prognosis of advanced pancreatic cancer patients, and it may be a predictive parameter to select patients candidate to receive sorafenib. PMID:26397228

  12. Effects of microphysics and aerosols on TC Intensity and structure as seen from high resolution WRF simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khain, A.; Lynn, B. H.

    2014-12-01

    We simulate Hurricane Irene (2011) that moved northward along the eastern coast of the United States and weakened much faster than was predicted. The minimum pressure in Irene occurred about 40 h later than the time of maximum wind speed. Simulations performed with WRF with the spectral bin microphysics (SBM) showed that both the weakening of Irene and the time shift between maximum of wind and the minimum of pressure were caused by the effects of aerosols leading to the intensification of convection at its periphery resulting in an increase in size. Irena was also simulated using different bulk-parameterization schemes. The dispersion of TC in simulations using different schemes is very high, which indicates high sensitivity of TC intensity to microphysical processes. Despite the fact that new bulk-parameterization schemes simulated TC intensity quite well, non of bulk-schemes were able to predict the time shift between maximum wind and minimum surface pressure. The plausible reason is a too weak sensitivity of bulk schemes to aerosols.

  13. Immunohistochemical prediction of lapatinib efficacy in advanced HER2-positive breast cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Duchnowska, Renata; Wysocki, Piotr J.; Korski, Konstanty; Czartoryska-Arłukowicz, Bogumiła; Niwińska, Anna; Orlikowska, Marlena; Radecka, Barbara; Studziński, Maciej; Demlova, Regina; Ziółkowska, Barbara; Merdalska, Monika; Hajac, Łukasz; Myśliwiec, Paulina; Zuziak, Dorota; Dębska-Szmich, Sylwia; Lang, Istvan; Foszczyńska-Kłoda, Małgorzata; Karczmarek-Borowska, Bożenna; Żawrocki, Anton; Kowalczyk, Anna; Biernat, Wojciech; Jassem, Jacek

    2016-01-01

    Molecular mechanisms of lapatinib resistance in breast cancer are not well understood. The aim of this study was to correlate expression of selected proteins involved in ErbB family signaling pathways with clinical efficacy of lapatinib. Study group included 270 HER2-positive advanced breast cancer patients treated with lapatinib and capecitabine. Immunohistochemical expression of phosphorylated adenosine monophosphate-activated protein (p-AMPK), mitogen-activated protein kinase (p-MAPK), phospho (p)-p70S6K, cyclin E, phosphatase and tensin homolog were analyzed in primary breast cancer samples. The best discriminative value for progression-free survival (PFS) was established for each biomarker and subjected to multivariate analysis. At least one biomarker was determined in 199 patients. Expression of p-p70S6K was independently associated with longer (HR 0.45; 95% CI: 0.25–0.81; p = 0.009), and cyclin E with shorter PFS (HR 1.83; 95% CI: 1.06–3.14; p = 0.029). Expression of p-MAPK (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.13–2.29; p = 0.009) and cyclin E (HR 2.99; 95% CI: 1.29–6.94; p = 0.011) was correlated with shorter, and expression of estrogen receptor (HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.43–0.98; p = 0.041) with longer overall survival. Expression of p-AMPK negatively impacted response to treatment (HR 3.31; 95% CI 1.48–7.44; p = 0.004) and disease control (HR 3.07; 95% CI 1.25–7.58; p = 0.015). In conclusion: the efficacy of lapatinib seems to be associated with the activity of downstream signaling pathways – AMPK/mTOR and Ras/Raf/MAPK. Further research is warranted to assess the clinical utility of these data and to determine a potential role of combining lapatinib with MAPK pathway inhibitors. PMID:26623720

  14. Cloud microphysical relationships and their implication on the mixing processes in the stratocumulus clouds measured during the VOCALS-REx

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yum, S. S.; Wang, J.; Liu, Y.; Senum, G.; Springston, S. R.; McGraw, R. L.; Yeom, J.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the nature of marine stratocumulus clouds (MSCs) have been recognize as crucially important in climate change prediction due to their important roles in modulating radiation budget on a very wide spatial scale. However, despite the seemingly simple shape of MSCs, microphysical and dynamical characteristics of these clouds are very complex. MSCs are usually topped by much warmer and drier air and entrainment and mixing at the top of these clouds modulate the cloud microphysics and dynamics. The important point is that depending on how entrained air mixes with the cloudy air, further development of the cloud can turn out to be different. Here we examine this problem for the MSCs observed over the Southeastern Pacific. The airborne data we used were obtained from the G-1 aircraft during Vamos Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study-Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx). The data were recorded at various rates but the ones presented in this study are the 1Hz and 40Hz data. Cloud microphysics data obtained from horizontal penetrations through the clouds are analyzed to find the evidence for the dominant mixing mechanism of the entrained dry air from above the cloud top. We find that the dominant feature is the positive relationship between cloud droplet mean volume (V) and liquid water content (L). Despite this apparent trait of homogeneous mixing, relevant scale parameters (i.e., transition length scale and transition scale number) consistently suggest that inhomogeneous mixing would be dominant for the VOCALS MSCs. Here we propose that this clear discrepancy can be explained by vertical circulation mixing that can modulate the V-L relationship to suggest homogeneous mixing at the measurement altitudes, which was on average 10.2 mb down from the cloud top where actual mixing may have occurred inhomogeneously.

  15. Identification of a DNA methylation signature to predict disease-free survival in locally advanced rectal cancer

    PubMed Central

    Claus, Rainer; Weichenhan, Dieter; Jung, Klaus; Kitz, Julia; Grade, Marian; Wolff, Hendrik A.; Jo, Peter; Doyen, Jérôme; Gérard, Jean-Pierre; Johnsen, Steven A.; Plass, Christoph; Beißbarth, Tim; Ghadimi, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In locally advanced rectal cancer a preoperative predictive biomarker is necessary to adjust treatment specifically for those patients expected to suffer relapse. We applied whole genome methylation CpG island array analyses to an initial set of patients (n=11) to identify differentially methylated regions (DMRs) that separate a good from a bad prognosis group. Using a quantitative high-resolution approach, candidate DMRs were first validated in a set of 61 patients (test set) and then confirmed DMRs were further validated in additional independent patient cohorts (n=71, n=42). We identified twenty highly discriminative DMRs and validated them in the test set using the MassARRAY technique. Ten DMRs could be confirmed which allowed separation into prognosis groups (p=0.0207, HR=4.09). The classifier was validated in two additional cohorts (n=71, p=0.0345, HR=3.57 and n=42, p=0.0113, HR=3.78). Interestingly, six of the ten DMRs represented regions close to the transcriptional start sites of genes which are also marked by the Polycomb Repressor Complex component EZH2. In conclusion we present a classifier comprising 10 DMRs which predicts patient prognosis with a high degree of accuracy. These data may now help to discriminate between patients that may respond better to standard treatments from those that may require alternative modalities. PMID:25261372

  16. Microphysical Ice Crystal Properties in Mid-Latitude Frontal Cirrus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlage, Romy; Jurkat, Tina; Voigt, Christiane; Minikin, Andreas; Weigel, Ralf; Molleker, Sergej; Klingebiel, Marcus; Borrmann, Stephan; Luebke, Anna; Krämer, Martina; Kaufmann, Stefan; Schäfler, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    Cirrus clouds modulate the climate by reflection of shortwave solar radiation and trapping of longwave terrestrial radiation. Their net radiative effect can be positive or negative depending on atmospheric and cloud parameters including ice crystal number density, size and shape. Latter microphysical ice crystal properties have been measured during the mid-latitude cirrus mission ML-CIRRUS with a set of cloud instruments on the new research aircraft HALO. The mission took place in March/April 2014 with 16 flights in cirrus formed above Europe and the Atlantic. The ice clouds were encountered at altitudes from 7 to 14 km in the typical mid-latitude temperature range. A focus of the mission was the detection of frontal cirrus linked to warm conveyor belts (WCBs). Within WCBs, water vapor is transported in the warm sector of an extra-tropical cyclone from the humid boundary layer to the upper troposphere. Cirrus cloud formation can be triggered in the WCB outflow region at moderate updraft velocities and additionally at low updrafts within the high pressure system linked to the WCB. Due to their frequent occurrence, WCBs represent a major source for regions of ice supersaturation and cirrus formation in the mid-latitudes. Here, we use data from the Cloud and Aerosol Spectrometer with detection for POLarization (CAS-POL) and the Cloud Combination Probe (CCP), combining a Cloud Droplet Probe (CDP) and a greyscale Cloud Imaging Probe (CIPgs) to investigate the ice crystal distribution in the size range from 0.5 µm to 1 mm. We derive microphysical cirrus properties in mid-latitude warm front cirrus. Further, we investigate their variability and their dependence on temperature and relative humidity. Finally, we compare the microphysical properties of these frontal cirrus to cirrus clouds that formed at low updrafts within high pressure systems or at high updraft velocities in lee waves. We quantify statistically significant differences in cirrus properties formed in these

  17. Arrange and average algorithm for the retrieval of aerosol microphysical parameters from HSRL-2. Comparison with in-situ measurements during DISCOVER-AQ California and Texas (2013)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chemyakin, E.; Sawamura, P.; Mueller, D.; Burton, S. P.; Ferrare, R. A.; Hostetler, C. A.; Scarino, A. J.; Hair, J. W.; Berkoff, T.; Cook, A. L.; Harper, D. B.; Seaman, S. T.

    2015-12-01

    Although aerosols are only a fairly minor constituent of Earth's atmosphere they are able to affect its radiative energy balance significantly. Light detection and ranging (lidar) instruments have the potential to play a crucial role in atmospheric research as only these instruments provide information about aerosol properties at a high vertical resolution. We are exploring different algorithmic approaches to retrieve microphysical properties of aerosols using lidar. Almost two decades ago we started with inversion techniques based on Tikhonov's regularization that became a reference point for the improvement of retrieval capabilities of inversion algorithms. Recently we began examining the potential of the "arrange and average" scheme, which relies on a look-up table of optical and microphysical aerosol properties. The future combination of these two different inversion schemes may help us to improve the accuracy of the microphysical data products.The novel arrange and average algorithm was applied to retrieve aerosol optical and microphysical parameters using NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2) data. HSRL-2 is the first airborne HSRL system that is able to provide advanced datasets consisting of backscatter coefficients at 355, 532, and 1064 nm, and extinction coefficients at 355 and 532 nm as input information for aerosol microphysical retrievals. HSRL-2 was deployed on-board NASA LaRC's King Air aircraft during the Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and VERtically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ) field campaigns over the California Central Valley and Houston. Vertical profiles of aerosol optical properties and size distributions were obtained from in-situ instruments on-board the NASA's P-3B aircraft. As HSRL-2 flew along the same flight track of the P-3B, synergistic measurements and retrievals were obtained by these two independent platforms. We will present an

  18. Numerical Simulations of Optical Turbulence Using an Advanced Atmospheric Prediction Model: Implications for Adaptive Optics Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alliss, R.

    2014-09-01

    Optical turbulence (OT) acts to distort light in the atmosphere, degrading imagery from astronomical telescopes and reducing the data quality of optical imaging and communication links. Some of the degradation due to turbulence can be corrected by adaptive optics. However, the severity of optical turbulence, and thus the amount of correction required, is largely dependent upon the turbulence at the location of interest. Therefore, it is vital to understand the climatology of optical turbulence at such locations. In many cases, it is impractical and expensive to setup instrumentation to characterize the climatology of OT, so numerical simulations become a less expensive and convenient alternative. The strength of OT is characterized by the refractive index structure function Cn2, which in turn is used to calculate atmospheric seeing parameters. While attempts have been made to characterize Cn2 using empirical models, Cn2 can be calculated more directly from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) simulations using pressure, temperature, thermal stability, vertical wind shear, turbulent Prandtl number, and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE). In this work we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) NWP model to generate Cn2 climatologies in the planetary boundary layer and free atmosphere, allowing for both point-to-point and ground-to-space seeing estimates of the Fried Coherence length (ro) and other seeing parameters. Simulations are performed using a multi-node linux cluster using the Intel chip architecture. The WRF model is configured to run at 1km horizontal resolution and centered on the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) of the Big Island. The vertical resolution varies from 25 meters in the boundary layer to 500 meters in the stratosphere. The model top is 20 km. The Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) TKE scheme has been modified to diagnose the turbulent Prandtl number as a function of the Richardson number, following observations by Kondo and others. This modification

  19. Combined sphere-spheroid particle model for the retrieval of the microphysical aerosol parameters via regularized inversion of lidar data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samaras, Stefanos; Böckmann, Christine; Nicolae, Doina

    2016-06-01

    In this work we propose a two-step advancement of the Mie spherical-particle model accounting for particle non-sphericity. First, a naturally two-dimensional (2D) generalized model (GM) is made, which further triggers analogous 2D re-definitions of microphysical parameters. We consider a spheroidal-particle approach where the size distribution is additionally dependent on aspect ratio. Second, we incorporate the notion of a sphere-spheroid particle mixture (PM) weighted by a non-sphericity percentage. The efficiency of these two models is investigated running synthetic data retrievals with two different regularization methods to account for the inherent instability of the inversion procedure. Our preliminary studies show that a retrieval with the PM model improves the fitting errors and the microphysical parameter retrieval and it has at least the same efficiency as the GM. While the general trend of the initial size distributions is captured in our numerical experiments, the reconstructions are subject to artifacts. Finally, our approach is applied to a measurement case yielding acceptable results.

  20. New algorithm to derive the microphysical properties of the aerosols from lidar measurements using OPAC aerosol classification schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talianu, Camelia; Labzovskii, Lev; Toanca, Florica

    2014-05-01

    This paper presents a new method to retrieve the aerosol complex refractive index and effective radius from multiwavelength lidar data, using an integrated model-measurement approach. In the model, aerosols are assumed to be a non-spherical ensemble of internally mixed components, with variable proportions. OPAC classification schemes and basic components are used to calculate the microphysical properties, which are then fed into the T-matrix calculation code to generate the corresponding optical parameters. Aerosol intensive parameters (lidar ratios, extinction and backscatter Angstrom coefficients, and linear particle depolarization ratios) are computed at the altitude of the aerosol layers determined from lidar measurements, and iteratively compared to the values obtained by simulation for a certain aerosol type, for which the critical component's proportion in the overall mixture is varied. Microphysical inversion based on the Truncated Singular Value Decomposition (TSVD) algorithm is performed for selected cases of spherical aerosols, and comparative results of the two methods are shown. Keywords: Lidar, aerosols, Data inversion, Optical parameters, Complex Refractive Index Acknowledgments: This work has been supported by grants of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research, Programme for Research- Space Technology and Advanced Research - STAR, project numbers 38/2012 - CAPESA and 55/2013 - CARESSE, and by the European Community's FP7-INFRASTRUCTURES-2010-1 under grant no. 262254 - ACTRIS and by the European Community's FP7-PEOPLE-2011-ITN under grant no. 289923 - ITARS

  1. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    SciTech Connect

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  2. Microphysical fundamentals governing cirrus cloud growth: Modeling studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sassen, Kenneth; Dodd, Gregory C.; Starr, David

    1990-01-01

    For application to Global Climate Models, large scale numerical models of cirrus cloud formation and maintenance need to be refined to more reliably simulate the effects and feedbacks of high level clouds. A key aspect is how ice crystal growth is initiated in cirrus, which has started a cloud microphysical controversy between camps either believing that heterogeneous or homogeneous drop freezing is predominantly responsible for cold cirrus ice crystal nucleation. In view of convincing evidence for the existence of highly supercooled cloud droplets in the middle and upper troposphere, however, it is concluded that active ice nuclei are rather scarce at cirrus cloud altitudes, and so a new understanding of cirrus cloud formation is needed. This understanding is sought through an examination of cirrus cloud growth models.

  3. In-Situ Microphysics from the MPACE IOP

    DOE Data Explorer

    McFarquhar, Greg

    2008-01-15

    Best estimates of the size distributions of supercooled water droplets and ice crystals for mixed-phase clouds measured during M-PACE for spiral ascents/descents over Barrow and Oliktok Point, and for ramped ascents/descents between Barrow and Oliktok Point. Our best estimates of the bulk microphysical properties such as ice water content (IWC), liquid water content (LWC), effective radius of ice crystals defined following Fu (1996) (rei), effective radius of supercooled water droplets (rew), total ice crystal number concentration (Ni), total water droplet number concentration (Nw) and total condensed water content (CWC), are also provided. The quantities were derived from the FSSP, 1DC, 2DC, HVPS and the CVI. Note HVPS data are only available after 10 Oct 2004 and some procedures have been developed to account for the missing data.

  4. TRMM Common Microphysics Products: A Tool for Evaluating Spaceborne Precipitation Retrieval Algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kingsmill, David E.; Yuter, Sandra E.; Hobbs, Peter V.; Rangno, Arthur L.; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Stith, Jeffrey L.; Bansemer, Aaron; Haggerty, Julie A.; Korolev, Alexei V.

    2004-01-01

    A customized product for analysis of microphysics data collected from aircraft during field campaigns in support of the TRMM program is described. These Common Microphysics Products (CMP's) are designed to aid in evaluation of TRMM spaceborne precipitation retrieval algorithms. Information needed for this purpose (e.g., particle size spectra and habit, liquid and ice water content) was derived using a common processing strategy on the wide variety of microphysical instruments and raw native data formats employed in the field campaigns. The CMP's are organized into an ASCII structure to allow easy access to the data for those less familiar with and without the tools to accomplish microphysical data processing. Detailed examples of the CMP show its potential and some of its limitations. This approach may be a first step toward developing a generalized microphysics format and an associated community-oriented, non-proprietary software package for microphysics data processing, initiatives that would likely broaden community access to and use of microphysics datasets.

  5. A General Uncertainty Quantification Methodology for Cloud Microphysical Property Retrievals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Q.; Xie, S.; Chen, X.; Zhao, C.

    2014-12-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program provides long-term (~20 years) ground-based cloud remote sensing observations. However, there are large uncertainties in the retrieval products of cloud microphysical properties based on the active and/or passive remote-sensing measurements. To address this uncertainty issue, a DOE Atmospheric System Research scientific focus study, Quantification of Uncertainties in Cloud Retrievals (QUICR), has been formed. In addition to an overview of recent progress of QUICR, we will demonstrate the capacity of an observation-based general uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology via the ARM Climate Research Facility baseline cloud microphysical properties (MICROBASE) product. This UQ method utilizes the Karhunen-Loéve expansion (KLE) and Central Limit Theorems (CLT) to quantify the retrieval uncertainties from observations and algorithm parameters. The input perturbations are imposed on major modes to take into account the cross correlations between input data, which greatly reduces the dimension of random variables (up to a factor of 50) and quantifies vertically resolved full probability distribution functions of retrieved quantities. Moreover, this KLE/CLT approach has the capability of attributing the uncertainties in the retrieval output to individual uncertainty source and thus sheds light on improving the retrieval algorithm and observations. We will present the results of a case study for the ice water content at the Southern Great Plains during an intensive observing period on March 9, 2000. This work is performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  6. Meteorological and aerosol effects on marine cloud microphysical properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez, K. J.; Russell, L. M.; Modini, R. L.; Frossard, A. A.; Ahlm, L.; Corrigan, C. E.; Roberts, G. C.; Hawkins, L. N.; Schroder, J. C.; Bertram, A. K.; Zhao, R.; Lee, A. K. Y.; Lin, J. J.; Nenes, A.; Wang, Z.; Wonaschütz, A.; Sorooshian, A.; Noone, K. J.; Jonsson, H.; Toom, D.; Macdonald, A. M.; Leaitch, W. R.; Seinfeld, J. H.

    2016-04-01

    Meteorology and microphysics affect cloud formation, cloud droplet distributions, and shortwave reflectance. The Eastern Pacific Emitted Aerosol Cloud Experiment and the Stratocumulus Observations of Los-Angeles Emissions Derived Aerosol-Droplets studies provided measurements in six case studies of cloud thermodynamic properties, initial particle number distribution and composition, and cloud drop distribution. In this study, we use simulations from a chemical and microphysical aerosol-cloud parcel (ACP) model with explicit kinetic drop activation to reproduce observed cloud droplet distributions of the case studies. Four cases had subadiabatic lapse rates, resulting in fewer activated droplets, lower liquid water content, and higher cloud base height than an adiabatic lapse rate. A weighted ensemble of simulations that reflect measured variation in updraft velocity and cloud base height was used to reproduce observed droplet distributions. Simulations show that organic hygroscopicity in internally mixed cases causes small effects on cloud reflectivity (CR) (<0.01), except for cargo ship and smoke plumes, which increased CR by 0.02 and 0.07, respectively, owing to their high organic mass fraction. Organic hygroscopicity had larger effects on droplet concentrations for cases with higher aerosol concentrations near the critical diameter (namely, polluted cases with a modal peak near 0.1 µm). Differences in simulated droplet spectral widths (k) caused larger differences in CR than organic hygroscopicity in cases with organic mass fractions of 60% or less for the cases shown. Finally, simulations from a numerical parameterization of cloud droplet activation suitable for general circulation models compared well with the ACP model, except under high organic mass fraction.

  7. Cloud microphysics and aerosol indirect effects in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, U.; Stier, P.; Hoose, C.; Ferrachat, S.; Kloster, S.; Roeckner, E.; Zhang, J.

    2007-07-01

    The double-moment cloud microphysics scheme from ECHAM4 that predicts both the mass mixing ratios and number concentrations of cloud droplets and ice crystals has been coupled to the size-resolved aerosol scheme ECHAM5-HAM. ECHAM5-HAM predicts the aerosol mass, number concentrations and mixing state. The simulated liquid, ice and total water content and the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as a function of temperature in stratiform mixed-phase clouds between 0 and -35° C agree much better with aircraft observations in the ECHAM5 simulations. ECHAM5 performs better because more realistic aerosol concentrations are available for cloud droplet nucleation and because the Bergeron-Findeisen process is parameterized as being more efficient. The total anthropogenic aerosol effect includes the direct, semi-direct and indirect effects and is defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere net radiation between present-day and pre-industrial times. It amounts to -1.9 W m-2 in ECHAM5, when a relative humidity dependent cloud cover scheme and aerosol emissions representative for the years 1750 and 2000 from the AeroCom emission inventory are used. The contribution of the cloud albedo effect amounts to -0.7 W m-2. The total anthropogenic aerosol effect is larger when either a statistical cloud cover scheme or a different aerosol emission inventory are employed because the cloud lifetime effect increases.

  8. Modelling of contrail cirrus in a climate model: microphysical and optical properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bock, Lisa; Burkhardt, Ulrike; Kärcher, Bernd

    2014-05-01

    Contrail cirrus is the largest climate forcing component of aviation. Current estimates using a climate model rely on an approach parameterizing contrail microphysical processes based on ice water content alone. A microphysical two-moment-scheme (prognostic ice water content and ice particle number density) allows a more realistic representation of the microphysical and optical properties of contrail cirrus. That implies a better estimate of their radiative forcing and its sensitivity to changes in ice particle number concentration. We modify the cloud scheme in ECHAM5-HAM by changing the nucleation parameterization consistent with a fractional coverage. Afterwards the contrail cirrus module (Burkhardt and Kärcher, 2009) developed for one-moment microphysics is implemented in ECHAM5 and extended with a two-moment-scheme. An exact description of contrail cirrus volume is important for a realistic characterization of the microphysical and optical properties of contrail cirrus. Therefore, parameterizations for the growth of the contrail cirrus volume due to diffusion, wind shear and sedimentation are implemented. The fields of ice water content, ice particle number concentration, cloud coverage and the frequency of ice supersaturated regions are validated and microphysical and optical properties of contrail cirrus are studied. In an idealized experiment the relative importance of microphysical processes is evaluated. As a consequence of the improved parameterization of microphysical processes the optical depth of contrail cirrus is higher in regions with high flight density than it was in earlier studies (Burkhardt and Kärcher, 2011) due to the high ice particle number concentrations on the main flight routes. Microphysical and optical properties of contrail cirrus turn out to be strongly dependent on the initial ice particle number. Reducing the latter leads to an overall decrease of contrail cirrus optical depth and visible coverage.

  9. Prognostic and Predictive Value of Baseline and Posttreatment Molecular Marker Expression in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Treated With Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Bertolini, Federica . E-mail: bertolini.federica@policlinico.mo.it; Bengala, Carmelo; Losi, Luisa; Pagano, Maria; Iachetta, Francesco; Dealis, Cristina; Jovic, Gordana; Depenni, Roberta; Zironi, Sandra; Falchi, Anna Maria; Luppi, Gabriele; Conte, Pier Franco

    2007-08-01

    Purpose: To evaluate expression of a panel of molecular markers, including p53, p21, MLH1, MSH2, MIB-1, thymidylate synthase, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), and tissue vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), before and after treatment in patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer, to correlate the constitutive profile and dynamics of expression with pathologic response and outcome. Methods and Materials: Expression of biomarkers was evaluated by immunohistochemistry in tumor samples from 91 patients with clinical Stage II and III rectal cancer treated with preoperative pelvic radiotherapy (50 Gy) plus concurrent 5-fluorouracil by continuous intravenous infusion. Results: A pathologic complete remission was observed in 14 patients (15.4%). Patients with MLH1-positive tumors had a higher pathologic complete response rate (24.3% vs. 9.4%; p = 0.055). Low expression of constitutive p21, absence of EGFR expression after chemoradiotherapy, and high Dworak's tumor regression grade (TRG) were significantly associated with improved disease-free survival and overall survival. A high MIB-1 value after chemoradiotherapy was significantly associated with worse overall survival. Multivariate analysis confirmed the prognostic value of constitutive p21 expression as well as EGFR expression and MIB-1 value after chemoradiotherapy among patients not achieving TRG 3-4. Conclusions: In our study, we observed the independent prognostic value of EGFR expression after chemoradiotherapy on disease-free survival. Moreover, our study suggests that a constitutive high p21 expression and a high MIB-1 value after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy treatment could predict worse outcome in locally advanced rectal cancer.

  10. Primary Tumor Necrosis Predicts Distant Control in Locally Advanced Soft-Tissue Sarcomas After Preoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    MacDermed, Dhara M.; Miller, Luke L.; Peabody, Terrance D.; Simon, Michael A.; Luu, Hue H.; Haydon, Rex C.; Montag, Anthony G.; Undevia, Samir D.

    2010-03-15

    Purpose: Various neoadjuvant approaches have been evaluated for the treatment of locally advanced soft-tissue sarcomas. This retrospective study describes a uniquely modified version of the Eilber regimen developed at the University of Chicago. Methods and Materials: We treated 34 patients (28 Stage III and 6 Stage IV) with locally advanced soft-tissue sarcomas of an extremity between 1995 and 2008. All patients received preoperative therapy including ifosfamide (2.5 g/m2 per day for 5 days) with concurrent radiation (28 Gy in 3.5-Gy daily fractions), sandwiched between various chemotherapy regimens. Postoperatively, 47% received further adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: Most tumors (94%) were Grade 3, and all were T2b, with a median size of 10.3 cm. Wide excision was performed in 29 patients (85%), and 5 required amputation. Of the resected tumor specimens, 50% exhibited high (>=90%) treatment-induced necrosis and 11.8% had a complete pathologic response. Surgical margins were negative in all patients. The 5-year survival rate was 42.3% for all patients and 45.2% for Stage III patients. For limb-preservation patients, the 5-year local control rate was 89.0% and reoperation was required for wound complications in 17.2%. The 5-year freedom-from-distant metastasis rate was 53.4% (Stage IV patients excluded), and freedom from distant metastasis was superior if treatment-induced tumor necrosis was 90% or greater (84.6% vs. 19.9%, p = 0.02). Conclusions: This well-tolerated concurrent chemoradiotherapy approach yields excellent rates of limb preservation and local control. The resulting treatment-induced necrosis rates are predictive of subsequent metastatic risk, and this information may provide an opportunity to guide postoperative systemic therapies.

  11. Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Microphysics Within Winter Storms Using Field Data and In Situ Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colle, Brian A.; Molthan, Andrew; Yu, Ruyi; Nesbitt, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Snow prediction within models is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33-km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Cold-season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment over southern Ontario, as well as a few years (12 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. The GCPex presentation will focus on verification using aircraft spirals through warm frontal snow band event on 18 February 2012. All the BMPs realistically simulated the structure of the band and the vertical distribution of snow/ice aloft, except the SBU-YLIN overpredicted slightly and Thompson (THOM) underpredicted somewhat. The Morrison (MORR) scheme produced the best slope size distribution for snow, while the Stony Brook (SBU) underpredicted and the THOM slightly overpredicted. Those schemes that have the slope intercept a function of temperature (SBU and WSM6) tended to perform better for that parameter than others, especially the fixed intercept in Goddard. Overall, the spread among BMPs was smaller than in other studies, likely because there was limited riming with the band. For the 15 cases at SBNY, which include moderate and heavy riming events, the non-spherical snow assumption (THOM and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic

  12. CEA serum level as early predictive marker of outcome during EGFR-TKI therapy in advanced NSCLC patients.

    PubMed

    Facchinetti, Francesco; Aldigeri, Raffaella; Aloe, Rosalia; Bortesi, Beatrice; Ardizzoni, Andrea; Tiseo, Marcello

    2015-08-01

    Considering the role of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) serum levels as potential useful predictive marker during chemotherapy treatment, we studied its applicability in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine-kinase inhibitors (TKIs). Our retrospective cohort consists of 79 patients (33 EGFR mutated and 46 EGFR wild type or unknown) affected by advanced NSCLC, for whom CEA serum values at the beginning of TKI therapy and after the first month of treatment were available, regardless of treatment line. Baseline CEA value, percentage of CEA reduction after 1 month, and percentage of patients with ≥20 % CEA decrease after 1 month (CEA response) were correlated with disease control rate (DCR), progression-free (PFS), and overall (OS) survival, according to EGFR mutational status. Median baseline CEA levels were significantly higher in EGFR mutated (40.9 ng/ml; interquartile range (IQR) 8.9-197.6) than in wild-type cases (6.2 ng/ml; IQR 2.8-12.8; p = 0.003). Both percentage reduction in CEA levels (-10.7 vs. +13.4 %) and percentage of cases with CEA response (42 vs. 20 %) were significantly higher in mutated vs. wild-type/unknown patients (p = 0.007 and p = 0.027, respectively). In wild-type/unknown patients, CEA response was significantly correlated with DCR (p = 0.001) and resulted as a significant predictor of PFS both in univariate (p = 0.002) and in multivariate analyses (hazard ratio (HR) 0.27; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.11-0.66; p = 0.004); only a trend was found for OS prediction (p = 0.082). In EGFR-mutated group, CEA reduction did not show any correlation either with PFS or OS. CEA response after 1 month of EGFR-TKI therapy could be a useful marker, worthy to further studies, as early predictor of treatment outcome in EGFR wild-type/unknown unselected NSCLC cases for which no molecular predictor is yet available. PMID:25731731

  13. Baseline MELD Score Predicts Hepatic Decompensation during Antiviral Therapy in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C and Advanced Cirrhosis

    PubMed Central

    Dultz, Georg; Seelhof, Martin; Herrmann, Eva; Welker, Martin-Walter; Friedrich-Rust, Mireen; Teuber, Gerlinde; Kronenberger, Bernd; von Wagner, Michael; Vermehren, Johannes; Sarrazin, Christoph; Zeuzem, Stefan; Hofmann, Wolf Peter

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aims In patients with advanced liver cirrhosis due to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection antiviral therapy with peginterferon and ribavirin is feasible in selected cases only due to potentially life-threatening side effects. However, predictive factors associated with hepatic decompensation during antiviral therapy are poorly defined. Methods In a retrospective cohort study, 68 patients with HCV-associated liver cirrhosis (mean MELD score 9.18±2.72) were treated with peginterferon and ribavirin. Clinical events indicating hepatic decompensation (onset of ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, hospitalization) as well as laboratory data were recorded at baseline and during a follow up period of 72 weeks after initiation of antiviral therapy. To monitor long term sequelae of end stage liver disease an extended follow up for HCC development, transplantation and death was applied (240weeks, ±SD 136weeks). Results Eighteen patients (26.5%) achieved a sustained virologic response. During the observational period a hepatic decompensation was observed in 36.8%. Patients with hepatic decompensation had higher MELD scores (10.84 vs. 8.23, p<0.001) and higher mean bilirubin levels (26.74 vs. 14.63 µmol/l, p<0.001), as well as lower serum albumin levels (38.2 vs. 41.1 g/l, p = 0.015), mean platelets (102.64 vs. 138.95/nl, p = 0.014) and mean leukocytes (4.02 vs. 5.68/nl, p = 0.002) at baseline as compared to those without decompensation. In the multivariate analysis the MELD score remained independently associated with hepatic decompensation (OR 1.56, 1.18–2.07; p = 0.002). When the patients were grouped according to their baseline MELD scores, hepatic decompensation occurred in 22%, 59%, and 83% of patients with MELD scores of 6–9, 10–13, and >14, respectively. Baseline MELD score was significantly associated with the risk for transplantation/death (p<0.001). Conclusions Our data suggest that the

  14. Tropical Convective Responses to Microphysical and Radiative Processes: A Sensitivity Study With a 2D Cloud Resolving Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Xiao-Fan; Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.; Tao, W.-K.

    2004-01-01

    Prognostic cloud schemes are increasingly used in weather and climate models in order to better treat cloud-radiation processes. Simplifications are often made in such schemes for computational efficiency, like the scheme being used in the National Centers for Environment Prediction models that excludes some microphysical processes and precipitation-radiation interaction. In this study, sensitivity tests with a 2D cloud resolving model are carried out to examine effects of the excluded microphysical processes and precipitation-radiation interaction on tropical thermodynamics and cloud properties. The model is integrated for 10 days with the imposed vertical velocity derived from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment. The experiment excluding the depositional growth of snow from cloud ice shows anomalous growth of cloud ice and more than 20% increase of fractional cloud cover, indicating that the lack of the depositional snow growth causes unrealistically large mixing ratio of cloud ice. The experiment excluding the precipitation-radiation interaction displays a significant cooling and drying bias. The analysis of heat and moisture budgets shows that the simulation without the interaction produces more stable upper troposphere and more unstable mid and lower troposphere than does the simulation with the interaction. Thus, the suppressed growth of ice clouds in upper troposphere and stronger radiative cooling in mid and lower troposphere are responsible for the cooling bias, and less evaporation of rain associated with the large-scale subsidence induces the drying in mid and lower troposphere.

  15. Temperature and Material Flow Prediction in Friction-Stir Spot Welding of Advanced High-Strength Steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miles, M.; Karki, U.; Hovanski, Y.

    2014-10-01

    Friction-stir spot welding (FSSW) has been shown to be capable of joining advanced high-strength steel, with its flexibility in controlling the heat of welding and the resulting microstructure of the joint. This makes FSSW a potential alternative to resistance spot welding if tool life is sufficiently high, and if machine spindle loads are sufficiently low that the process can be implemented on an industrial robot. Robots for spot welding can typically sustain vertical loads of about 8 kN, but FSSW at tool speeds of less than 3000 rpm cause loads that are too high, in the range of 11-14 kN. Therefore, in the current work, tool speeds of 5000 rpm were employed to generate heat more quickly and to reduce welding loads to acceptable levels. Si3N4 tools were used for the welding experiments on 1.2-mm DP 980 steel. The FSSW process was modeled with a finite element approach using the Forge® software. An updated Lagrangian scheme with explicit time integration was employed to predict the flow of the sheet material, subjected to boundary conditions of a rotating tool and a fixed backing plate. Material flow was calculated from a velocity field that is two-dimensional, but heat generated by friction was computed by a novel approach, where the rotational velocity component imparted to the sheet by the tool surface was included in the thermal boundary conditions. An isotropic, viscoplastic Norton-Hoff law was used to compute the material flow stress as a function of strain, strain rate, and temperature. The model predicted welding temperatures to within 4%, and the position of the joint interface to within 10%, of the experimental results.

  16. Temperature and Material Flow Prediction in Friction-Stir Spot Welding of Advanced High-Strength Steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miles, M.; Karki, U.; Hovanski, Y.

    2014-09-01

    Friction-stir spot welding (FSSW) has been shown to be capable of joining advanced high-strength steel, with its flexibility in controlling the heat of welding and the resulting microstructure of the joint. This makes FSSW a potential alternative to resistance spot welding if tool life is sufficiently high, and if machine spindle loads are sufficiently low that the process can be implemented on an industrial robot. Robots for spot welding can typically sustain vertical loads of about 8 kN, but FSSW at tool speeds of less than 3000 rpm cause loads that are too high, in the range of 11-14 kN. Therefore, in the current work, tool speeds of 5000 rpm were employed to generate heat more quickly and to reduce welding loads to acceptable levels. Si3N4 tools were used for the welding experiments on 1.2-mm DP 980 steel. The FSSW process was modeled with a finite element approach using the Forge® software. An updated Lagrangian scheme with explicit time integration was employed to predict the flow of the sheet material, subjected to boundary conditions of a rotating tool and a fixed backing plate. Material flow was calculated from a velocity field that is two-dimensional, but heat generated by friction was computed by a novel approach, where the rotational velocity component imparted to the sheet by the tool surface was included in the thermal boundary conditions. An isotropic, viscoplastic Norton-Hoff law was used to compute the material flow stress as a function of strain, strain rate, and temperature. The model predicted welding temperatures to within 4%, and the position of the joint interface to within 10%, of the experimental results.

  17. Temperature and Material Flow Prediction in Friction-Stir Spot Welding of Advanced High-Strength Steel

    SciTech Connect

    Miles, Michael; Karki, U.; Hovanski, Yuri

    2014-10-01

    Friction-stir spot welding (FSSW) has been shown to be capable of joining advanced high-strength steel, with its flexibility in controlling the heat of welding and the resulting microstructure of the joint. This makes FSSW a potential alternative to resistance spot welding if tool life is sufficiently high, and if machine spindle loads are sufficiently low that the process can be implemented on an industrial robot. Robots for spot welding can typically sustain vertical loads of about 8 kN, but FSSW at tool speeds of less than 3000 rpm cause loads that are too high, in the range of 11–14 kN. Therefore, in the current work, tool speeds of 5000 rpm were employed to generate heat more quickly and to reduce welding loads to acceptable levels. Si3N4 tools were used for the welding experiments on 1.2-mm DP 980 steel. The FSSW process was modeled with a finite element approach using the Forge* software. An updated Lagrangian scheme with explicit time integration was employed to predict the flow of the sheet material, subjected to boundary conditions of a rotating tool and a fixed backing plate. Material flow was calculated from a velocity field that is two-dimensional, but heat generated by friction was computed by a novel approach, where the rotational velocity component imparted to the sheet by the tool surface was included in the thermal boundary conditions. An isotropic, viscoplastic Norton-Hoff law was used to compute the material flow stress as a function of strain, strain rate, and temperature. The model predicted welding temperatures to within percent, and the position of the joint interface to within 10 percent, of the experimental results.

  18. MATRIX-VBS Condensing Organic Aerosols in an Aerosol Microphysics Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gao, Chloe Y.; Tsigaridis, Konstas; Bauer, Susanne E.

    2015-01-01

    The condensation of organic aerosols is represented in a newly developed box-model scheme, where its effect on the growth and composition of particles are examined. We implemented the volatility-basis set (VBS) framework into the aerosol mixing state resolving microphysical scheme Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state (MATRIX). This new scheme is unique and advances the representation of organic aerosols in models in that, contrary to the traditional treatment of organic aerosols as non-volatile in most climate models and in the original version of MATRIX, this new scheme treats them as semi-volatile. Such treatment is important because low-volatility organics contribute significantly to the growth of particles. The new scheme includes several classes of semi-volatile organic compounds from the VBS framework that can partition among aerosol populations in MATRIX, thus representing the growth of particles via condensation of low volatility organic vapors. Results from test cases representing Mexico City and a Finish forrest condistions show good representation of the time evolutions of concentration for VBS species in the gas phase and in the condensed particulate phase. Emitted semi-volatile primary organic aerosols evaporate almost completely in the high volatile range, and they condense more efficiently in the low volatility range.

  19. Evaluation of WRF microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes in simulating a heavy rainfall event over Yangtze River delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kan, Yu; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yanan; Zhou, Cong

    2015-09-01

    The Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) version 3.5 has been used in this study to simulate a heavy rainfall event during the Meiyu season that occurred between 1 and 2 July 2014 over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) in China. The WRF model is driven by the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) Final (FNL) global tropospheric analysis data, and eight WRF nested experiments using four different microphysics (MP) schemes and two cumulus parameterizations (CP) are conducted to evaluate the effects of these microphysics and cumulus schemes on heavy rainfall predictions over YRV region. The four MPs selected in this study are Lin et al., WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme (WSM3), WRF Single-Moment 5-class scheme (WSM5) and WRF Single-Moment 6-class scheme (WSM6), and the two CPs are Kain-Fristch (KF) and Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) schemes. Sensitivity studies showed that all MPs coupling with KF and BMJ CP schemes can well capture the major rain belt from the northeast to southwest with three rainfall centers, but largely overestimate the rainfall near the border between Anhui and Hubei provinces along with the Yellow Sea shore, which produce an opposite trend compared to the observations. Large discrepancies are also presented in WRF simulations of heavy rainfall centers regarding their locations and magnitudes. All MPs coupling with KF CP scheme produced the rainfall areas shifting towards east compared to the observations, while all MPs with BMJ CP scheme tend to better predict the rainfall patterns with slightly more fake precipitation centers. Among all the experiments, the BMJ cumulus scheme has superiority in simulating the Meiyu rainfall over the KF scheme, and the WSM5-BMJ combination shows the best predictive skills.

  20. Anvil Glaciation in a Deep Cumulus Updraught over Florida Simulated with the Explicit Microphysics Model. I: Impact of Various Nucleation Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phillips, Vaughan T. J.; Andronache, Constantin; Sherwood, Steven C.; Bansemer, Aaron; Conant, William C.; Demott, Paul J.; Flagan, Richard C.; Heymsfield, Andy; Jonsson, Haflidi; Poellot, Micheal; Rissman, Tracey A.; Seinfeld, John H.; Vanreken, Tim; Varutbangkul, Varuntida; Wilson, James C.

    2005-01-01

    Simulations of a cumulonimbus cloud observed in the Cirrus regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) with an advanced version of the Explicit Microphysics Model (EMM) are presented. The EMM has size-resolved aerosols and predicts the time evolution of sizes, bulk densities and axial ratios of ice particles. Observations by multiple aircraft in the troposphere provide inputs to the model, including observations of the ice nuclei and of the entire size distribution of condensation nuclei. Homogeneous droplet freezing is found to be the source of almost all of the ice crystals in the anvil updraught of this particular model cloud. Most of the simulated droplets that freeze to form anvil crystals appear to be nucleated by activation of aerosols far above cloud base in the interior of the cloud ("secondary" or "in cloud" droplet nucleation). This is partly because primary droplets formed at cloud base are invariably depleted by accretion before they can reach the anvil base in the updraught, which promotes an increase with height of the average supersaturation in the updraught aloft. More than half of these aerosols, activated far above cloud base, are entrained into the updraught of this model cloud from the lateral environment above about 5 km above mean sea level. This confirms the importance of remote sources of atmospheric aerosol for anvil glaciation. Other nucleation processes impinge indirectly upon the anvil glaciation by modifying the concentration of supercooled droplets in the upper levels of the mixed-phase region. For instance, the warm-rain process produces a massive indirect impact on the anvil crystal concentration, because it determines the mass of precipitation forming in the updraught. It competes with homogeneous freezing as a sink for cloud droplets. The effects from turbulent enhancement of the warm-rain process and from the nucleation processes on the anvil ice properties are assessed.

  1. Finite difference simulations of seismic wave propagation for understanding earthquake physics and predicting ground motions: Advances and challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aochi, Hideo; Ulrich, Thomas; Ducellier, Ariane; Dupros, Fabrice; Michea, David

    2013-08-01

    Seismic waves radiated from an earthquake propagate in the Earth and the ground shaking is felt and recorded at (or near) the ground surface. Understanding the wave propagation with respect to the Earth's structure and the earthquake mechanisms is one of the main objectives of seismology, and predicting the strong ground shaking for moderate and large earthquakes is essential for quantitative seismic hazard assessment. The finite difference scheme for solving the wave propagation problem in elastic (sometimes anelastic) media has been more widely used since the 1970s than any other numerical methods, because of its simple formulation and implementation, and its easy scalability to large computations. This paper briefly overviews the advances in finite difference simulations, focusing particularly on earthquake mechanics and the resultant wave radiation in the near field. As the finite difference formulation is simple (interpolation is smooth), an easy coupling with other approaches is one of its advantages. A coupling with a boundary integral equation method (BIEM) allows us to simulate complex earthquake source processes.

  2. The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carey, Lawrence D.; Koshak, William J.; Peterson, Harold S.; Shultz, Elise; Matthee, Retha; Shultz, Christopher J.; Petersen, Walter A.; Bain, Lamont

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type (intracloud (IC) vs. cloud-to-ground (CG)) and extent.

  3. A microphysical model explains rate-and-state friction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Jianye; Spiers, Christopher J.

    2015-04-01

    The rate-and-state friction (RSF) laws were originally developed as a phenomenological description of the frictional behavior observed in lab experiments. In previous studies, the empirical RSF laws have been extensively and quite successfully applied to fault mechanisms. However, these laws can not readily be envisioned in terms of the underlying physics. There are several critical discrepancies between seismological constraints on RSF behavior associated with earthquakes and lab-derived RSF parameters, in particular regarding the static stress drop and characteristic slip distance associated with seismic events. Moreover, lab friction studies can address only limited fault topographies, displacements, experimental durations and P-T conditions, which means that scale issues, and especially processes like dilatation and fluid-rock interaction, cannot be fully taken into account. Without a physical basis accounting for such effects, extrapolation of lab-derived RSF data to nature involves significant, often unknown uncertainties. In order to more reliably apply experimental results to natural fault zones, and notably to extrapolate lab data beyond laboratory pressure, temperature and velocity conditions, an understanding of the microphysical mechanisms governing fault frictional behavior is required. Here, following some pioneering efforts (e.g. Niemeijer and Spiers, 2007; Den Hartog and Spiers, 2014), a mechanism-based microphysical model is developed for describing the frictional behavior of carbonate fault gouge, assuming that the frictional behavior seen in lab experiments is controlled by competing processes of intergranular slip versus contact creep by pressure solution. The model basically consists of two governing equations derived from energy/entropy balance considerations and the kinematic relations that apply to a granular fault gouge undergoing shear and dilation/compaction. These two equations can be written as ˙τ/K = Vimp- Lt[λ˙γsbps +(1-

  4. Continuous Profiles of Cloud Microphysical Properties for the Fixed Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Sites

    SciTech Connect

    Jensen, M; Jensen, K

    2006-06-01

    The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program defined a specific metric for the third quarter of Fiscal Year 2006 to produce and refine a one-year continuous time series of cloud microphysical properties based on cloud radar measurements for each of the fixed ARM sites. To accomplish this metric, we used a combination of recently developed algorithms that interpret radar reflectivity profiles, lidar backscatter profiles, and microwave brightness temperatures into the context of the underlying cloud microphysical structure.

  5. Titan's Detached Haze as a Test of Circulation and Microphysical Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    West, R. A.

    2011-12-01

    In 1981 Voyager ISS images showed a thin, high haze layer above Titan's main haze. Rages and Pollack (Icarus 55, 50-62, 1983) measured the altitude of this so-called detached haze to be at 357 km at the equator and about 27 km lower in the high southern latitudes. In the Voyager images and later in the Cassini ISS images starting in 2004 the detached haze was observed to be present and continuous over all latitudes south of the northern polar vortex boundary, but in the Cassini images beginning in 2004 the altitude of the haze was significantly higher (just over 500 km ) and more circular. West et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06204, doi:10.1029/2011GL046843, 2011) tracked the altitude of the haze from 2004 to August of 2010, and found that the altitude dropped dramatically and most rapidly near equinox in 2009. More recent images taken in 2011 show the altitude to be the same, within a few km, as the altitude measured by Rages and Pollack almost 30 earth years and one Titan year earlier. Two very different models to explain the existence and properties of the detached were put forward prior to the observation of the altitude shift. One by Rannou et al. (Nature 418, 853-856, 2002) produces the detached haze via a global meridional cell and includes seasonal variations. Another by Lavvas et al. (Icarus, 201, 626-633, doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2009.01.004, 2009), produces the haze by a purely steady-state microphysical mechanism and must be coupled with a dynamical process to produce the evolution. The collapse of Titan's detached haze is most likely a feature of the breakdown of a global meridional cell in the high stratosphere at equinox as solar heating becomes symmetric, although the haze does not disappear with the change in altitude as predicted by the model of Rannou et al.. The detached haze, a scientific curiosity for almost 30 years, has become an incisive test for Titan circulation and haze microphysical models. Part of this work was performed by the Jet

  6. Impact of large-scale dynamics on the microphysical properties of midlatitude cirrus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muhlbauer, Andreas; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Comstock, Jennifer M.; Diskin, Glenn S.; Evans, Stuart M.; Lawson, R. Paul; Marchand, Roger T.

    2014-04-01

    In situ microphysical observations of midlatitude cirrus collected during the Department of Energy Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) field campaign are combined with an atmospheric state classification for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to understand statistical relationships between cirrus microphysics and the large-scale meteorology. The atmospheric state classification is informed about the large-scale meteorology and state of cloudiness at the ARM SGP site by combining ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data with 14 years of continuous observations from the millimeter-wavelength cloud radar. Almost half of the cirrus cloud occurrences in the vicinity of the ARM SGP site during SPARTICUS can be explained by three distinct synoptic conditions, namely, upper level ridges, midlatitude cyclones with frontal systems, and subtropical flows. Probability density functions (PDFs) of cirrus microphysical properties such as particle size distributions (PSDs), ice number concentrations, and ice water content (IWC) are examined and exhibit striking differences among the different synoptic regimes. Generally, narrower PSDs with lower IWC but higher ice number concentrations are found in cirrus sampled in upper level ridges, whereas cirrus sampled in subtropical flows, fronts, and aged anvils show broader PSDs with considerably lower ice number concentrations but higher IWC. Despite striking contrasts in the cirrus microphysics for different large-scale environments, the PDFs of vertical velocity are not different, suggesting that vertical velocity PDFs are a poor predictor for explaining the microphysical variability in cirrus. Instead, cirrus microphysical contrasts may be driven by differences in ice supersaturations or aerosols.

  7. Haze Particles and Condensation in Pluto's Atmosphere Explored through Microphysical Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barth, E. L.

    2014-12-01

    To explore scenarios involving condensation in Pluto's atmosphere, a 1-D microphysics model based on the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) has been developed. CARMA has been used successfully many times to explore the vertical distribution, size, shape, and composition of particles in Titan's atmosphere, and in particular, to predict the appearance of methane condensate layers which were observed at the Huygens' landing site. Physical processes in CARMA include nucleation, condensation, evaporation, sedimentation, and coagulation. In Pluto's atmosphere, most of the condensation would require the presence of a troposphere with at least a few kilometers vertical extent. However, if photochemical production proceeds similarly to the case of Titan's atmosphere, there are possibilities for condensation at higher altitudes as well. A number of sensitivity tests will be presented, including variations in the abundance, size, and shape of haze particles; evaluating the onset of homogeneous methane nucleation; exploring the size distribution of the resulting methane ice particles; and the effects of condensation of other photochemically produced trace species as well.

  8. Combined Radiometer-Radar Microphysical Profile Estimations with Emphasis on High Frequency Brightness Temperature Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackson, Gail Skofronick; Wang, James R.; Heymsfield, Gerald M.; Hood, Robbie; Manning, Will; Meneghini, Robert; Weinman, James A.; Hildebrand, Peter (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Information about the vertical microphysical cloud structure is useful in many modeling and predictive practices. Radiometers and radars are used to observe hydrometeor properties. This paper describes an iterative retrieval algorithm that combines the use of airborne active and wideband (10 to 340 GHz) passive observations to estimate the vertical content and particle size distributions of liquid and frozen hydrometeors. The physically-based retrieval algorithm relies on the high frequencies (greater than 89 GHz) to provide details on the frozen hydrometeors. Neglecting the high frequencies yielded acceptable estimates of the liquid profiles, but the ice profiles were poorly retrieved. Airborne radar and radiometer observations from the third Convection and Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3) were used in the retrieval algorithm as constraints. Nadir profiles were estimated for a minute each of flight time (approximately 12.5 km along track) from an anvil, convection, and quasi- stratiform rain. The complex structure of the frozen hydrometeors required the most iterations for convergence for the anvil cloud type. The wideband observations were found to more than double the estimated frozen hydrometeor content as compared to retrievals using only 90-GHz and below. The convective and quasi-stratiform quickly reached convergence (minimized difference between observations and calculations using the estimated profiles). A qualitative validation using coincident in situ CAMEX-3 observations shows that the retrieved particle size distributions are well corroborated with independent measurements.

  9. The effect of cloud microphysics on climate sensitivity. Progress report, July 15, 1990--July 14, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Stamnes, K.

    1992-12-31

    Clouds play an important role in the climate system through radiative energy redistribution. The cloud radiative properties change if the cloud droplet size spectrum changes. This research shows that the climate is very sensitive to cloud water path and equivalent radius. To explore this issue, an accurate parameterization of cloud radiative properties for the purpose of climate modeling has been developed. A one-dimensional radiative convective model with a comprehensive radiative transfer scheme using the new parameterization of cloud radiative properties has also been developed to investigate the climate sensitivity to changes in cloud microphysics. By looking at clouds with different size distributions, we find that for clouds with the same cloud water amount and equivalent radius, the cloud radiative properties are essentially the same. Thus cloud radiative properties depend primarily on equivalent radius and are independent of the details of the size distribution. Our parameterization allows these two parameters to change independently. A sensitivity study has been performed, to consider cloud droplet size. First, we looked at cloud radiative forcing. The results show that the cloud radiative forcing is indeed very sensitive to the changes in cloud equivalent radius. Secondly, we have looked at the response of equilibrium temperature to changes in cloud equivalent radius. This sensitivity study suggests that in climate models, an interactive cloud parameterization is needed, in which cloud water amount and equivalent radius are predicted independently.

  10. Parallel implementation of WRF double moment 5-class cloud microphysics scheme on multiple GPUs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Melin; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen H.-L.

    2015-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Double Moment 5-class (WDM5) mixed ice microphysics scheme predicts the mixing ratio of hydrometeors and their number concentrations for warm rain species including clouds and rain. WDM5 can be computed in parallel in the horizontal domain using multi-core GPUs. In order to obtain a better GPU performance, we manually rewrite the original WDM5 Fortran module into a highly parallel CUDA C program. We explore the usage of coalesced memory access and asynchronous data transfer. Our GPU-based WDM5 module is scalable to run on multiple GPUs. By employing one NVIDIA Tesla K40 GPU, our GPU optimization effort on this scheme achieves a speedup of 252x with respect to its CPU counterpart Fortran code running on one CPU core of Intel Xeon E5-2603, whereas the speedup for one CPU socket (4 cores) with respect to one CPU core is only 4.2x. We can even boost the speedup of this scheme to 468x with respect to one CPU core when two NVIDIA Tesla K40 GPUs are applied.

  11. Comparing Aircraft Observations of Snowfall to Forecasts Using Single or Two Moment Bulk Water Microphysics Schemes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.

    2010-01-01

    High resolution weather forecast models with explicit prediction of hydrometeor type, size distribution, and fall speed may be useful in the development of precipitation retrievals, by providing representative characteristics of frozen hydrometeors. Several single or double-moment microphysics schemes are currently available within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, allowing for the prediction of up to three ice species. Each scheme incorporates different assumptions regarding the characteristics of their ice classes, particularly in terms of size distribution, density, and fall speed. In addition to the prediction of hydrometeor content, these schemes must accurately represent the vertical profile of water vapor to account for possible attenuation, along with the size distribution, density, and shape characteristics of ice crystals that are relevant to microwave scattering. An evaluation of a particular scheme requires the availability of field campaign measurements. The Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) obtained measurements of ice crystal shapes, size distributions, fall speeds, and precipitation during several intensive observation periods. In this study, C3VP observations obtained during the 22 January 2007 synoptic-scale snowfall event are compared against WRF model output, based upon forecasts using four single-moment and two double-moment schemes available as of version 3.1. Schemes are compared against aircraft observations by examining differences in size distribution, density, and content. In addition to direct measurements from aircraft probes, simulated precipitation can also be converted to equivalent, remotely sensed characteristics through the use of the NASA Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit. Outputs from high resolution forecasts are compared against radar and satellite observations emphasizing differences in assumed crystal shape and size distribution characteristics.

  12. A microphysical model for fault gouge friction applied to subduction megathrusts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartog, Sabine A. M.; Spiers, Christopher J.

    2014-02-01

    A microphysical model is developed for the steady state frictional behavior of illite-quartz fault gouge and applied to subduction megathrust P-T conditions. The model assumes a foliated, phyllosilicate-supported microstructure which shears by rate-independent frictional slip on the aligned phyllosilicates plus thermally activated deformation of the intervening quartz clasts. At low slip rates or high temperatures, the deformation of the clasts is easy, accommodating slip on the foliation without dilatation. With increasing velocity or decreasing temperature, the shear of the clasts becomes more difficult, increasing bulk shear strength, until slip is activated on inclined portions of the phyllosilicate foliation, where it anastomoses around the clasts. Slip at these sites leads to dilation involving clast/matrix debonding, balanced, at steady state, by compaction through thermally activated clast deformation. Model predictions, taking pressure solution as the thermally activated mechanism, show three regimes of velocity-dependent frictional behavior at temperatures in the range of 200-500°C, with velocity weakening occurring at 300-400°C, in broad agreement with previous experiments on illite-quartz gouge. Effects of slip rate, normal stress, and quartz fraction predicted by the model also resemble those seen experimentally. Extrapolation of the model to earthquake nucleation slip rates successfully predicts the onset of velocity-weakening behavior at the updip seismogenic limit on subduction megathrusts. The model further implies that the onset of seismogenesis is controlled by the thermally activated initiation of fault rock compaction through pressure solution of quartz, which counteracts dilatation due to slip on the fault rock foliation.

  13. The evolution of raindrop spectra: A review of microphysical essentials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beheng, K. D.

    The evolution of raindrops from cloud droplets is presented on the theoretical basis of cloud microphysical principles in terms of the spectral balance equation. Also, interconnections of the spectral balance equation to some related bulk balance equations are shown. The process especially outlined in this study is collisional interaction of drops. This can result in coagulation (permanent unification) or disaggregation (production of fragment droplets by collision-induced breakup). In distinguishing between cloud droplets and raindrops, emphasis is laid on a stringent definition of autoconversion, accretion, and self-collection. The related conversion rates are strictly defined for both the size distribution functions, themselves, as well as for the number and mass densities of cloud droplets and raindrops. A numerical example shows the effects of these mechanisms. In case of collision-induced breakup, the time rates of change of the size distribution function and the total number and mass densities are formulated. Finally, collision kernels are discussed, which, on one hand, are valid for raindrops and, on the other hand, for large droplets/ small raindrops as affected by turbulence.

  14. Using Directional Emissivity as a Probe of Particle Microphysical Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitman, K. M.; Wolff, M. J.; Bandfield, J. L.; Clayton, G. C.

    2002-09-01

    Real surfaces are not expected to be diffuse emitters, thus observed emissivity values are a function of viewing geometry. This fact has strong implications for analyses of the MGS/TES emission phase function (EPF) sequences and the upcoming Mars Exploration Rover mini-TES dataset. As reviewed previously [1], in the absence of strong thermal gradients, directional emissivity may be obtained via a combination of reciprocity and Kirchhoff's Law. Here we focus on the potential utility of directional emissivity as a direct probe of surface particle microphysical properties. We explore the effects of particle size and composition on observed radiances in the TES spectral regime using a combination of multiple scattering radiative transfer and Mie scattering algorithms. Comparisons of these simulated spectra to TES EPF observations of typical surface units (e.g., high and low albedo regions) will also be made. This work is supported through NASA grant NAGS-9820 (MJW) and LSU Board of Regents (KMP). [1] Pitman, K.M., et al. (2001), AAS-DPS meeting # 33, # 36.01.

  15. Microphysical and Dynamical Influences on Cirrus Cloud Optical Depth Distributions

    SciTech Connect

    Kay, J.; Baker, M.; Hegg, D.

    2005-03-18

    Cirrus cloud inhomogeneity occurs at scales greater than the cirrus radiative smoothing scale ({approx}100 m), but less than typical global climate model (GCM) resolutions ({approx}300 km). Therefore, calculating cirrus radiative impacts in GCMs requires an optical depth distribution parameterization. Radiative transfer calculations are sensitive to optical depth distribution assumptions (Fu et al. 2000; Carlin et al. 2002). Using raman lidar observations, we quantify cirrus timescales and optical depth distributions at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Lamont, OK (USA). We demonstrate the sensitivity of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) calculations to assumed optical depth distributions and to the temporal resolution of optical depth measurements. Recent work has highlighted the importance of dynamics and nucleation for cirrus evolution (Haag and Karcher 2004; Karcher and Strom 2003). We need to understand the main controls on cirrus optical depth distributions to incorporate cirrus variability into model radiative transfer calculations. With an explicit ice microphysics parcel model, we aim to understand the influence of ice nucleation mechanism and imposed dynamics on cirrus optical depth distributions.

  16. Aerosol Microphysical and Macrophysical Effects on Deep Convective Clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, T.; Li, Z.; Wilcox, E. M.; Oreopoulos, L.; Remer, L. A.; Yu, H.; Platnick, S. E.; Posselt, D. J.; Zhang, Z.; Martins, J. V.

    2014-12-01

    We illustrate a conceptual model of hydrometeor vertical development inside a convective cloud and its utility in studying of aerosol-DCC interactions. Both case studies and ensemble means are used to investigate aerosol-DCC interactions. We identify a few scenarios where possible signal of aerosol effect on DCC may be extracted. The results show a consistent and physically sound picture of aerosols affecting DCC microphysics as well as macrophysical properties. Specifically, pollutions and smokes are shown to consistently decrease ice particle size. On the contrary, dust particles close to source regions are shown to make cloud ice particle size more maritime like. We postulate that dust may achieve this by acting as either heterogeneous ice nuclei or giant cloud condensation nuclei. This contrast between smoke or pollution and dust also exists for their effects on cloud glaciation temperature. Smoke and pollution aerosols are shown to decrease glaciation temperature while dust particles do the opposite. Possible Implications of our results for studying aerosol indirect forcing, cirrus cloud properties, troposphere-stratosphere water vapor exchange and cloud latent heating are discussed.

  17. Constraints on PSC Particle Microphysics Derived From Lidar Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Li; Mishchenko, Michael I.

    2001-01-01

    Based on extensive T-matrix computations of light scattering by polydispersions of randomly oriented, rotationally symmetric nonspherical particles, we analyze existing lidar observations of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and derive several constraints on PSC particle microphysical properties. We show that sharp-edged nonspherical particles (finite circular cylinders) exhibit less variability of lidar backscattering characteristics with particle size and aspect ratio than particles with smooth surfaces (spheroids). For PSC particles significantly smaller than the wavelength, the backscatter color index Alpha and the depolarization color index Beta are essentially shape-independent. Observations for type Ia PSCs can be reproduced by spheroids with aspect ratios larger than 1.2, oblate cylinders with diameter-to-length ratios greater than 1.6, and prolate cylinders with length-to-diameter ratios greater than 1.4. The effective equal-volume-sphere radius for type la PSCs is about 0.8 microns or larger. Type Ib PSCs are likely to be composed of spheres or nearly spherical particles with effective radii smaller than 0.8 microns. Observations for type II PSCs are consistent with large ice crystals (effective radius greater than 1 micron modeled as cylinders or prolate spheroids.

  18. Observed Differences in Spectral Microphysical Retrievals from MODIS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Platnick, Steven E.; Zhang, Zhibo; Maddox, Brent; Ackeman, Steven A.

    2010-01-01

    The microphysical structure of clouds is of fundamental importance for understanding a variety of cloud radiation and physical processes. With the advent of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on the NASA EOS Terra and Aqua platforms, simultaneous global/daily 1km retrievals of cloud effective particle size are available using the heritage 3.7 an band from AVHRR as well as the 1.6 and 2.1 m shortwave IR bands. The MODIS cloud product (MOD06/MYD06 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively) provides separate effective radii results using each of these spectral bands. It has been found that significant differences can occur between the three size retrievals, mainly for liquid water marine boundary layer clouds and especially in broken (low cloud fraction) regimes. In particular, for such regimes, effective radii derived from the MODIS 2.1 lim band can be substantially larger than retrievals from the Heritage 3.7 lam band. In this paper, we present global and regional results of the differences, including correlations, view angle dependencies, and algorithm sensitivities for the existing MODIS Collection 5 product.

  19. Simulations of Aerosol Microphysics in the NASA GEOS-5 Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colarco, Peter; Smith; Randles; daSilva

    2010-01-01

    Aerosol-cloud-chemistry interactions have potentially large but uncertain impacts on Earth's climate. One path to addressing these uncertainties is to construct models that incorporate various components of the Earth system and to test these models against data. To that end, we have previously incorporated the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) module online in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5). GEOS-5 provides a platform for Earth system modeling, incorporating atmospheric and ocean general circulation models, a land surface model, a data assimilation system, and treatments of atmospheric chemistry and hydrologic cycle. Including GOCART online in this framework has provided a path for interactive aerosol-climate studies; however, GOCART only tracks the mass of aerosols as external mixtures and does not include the detailed treatments of aerosol size distribution and composition (internal mixtures) needed for aerosol-cloud-chemistry-climate studies. To address that need we have incorporated the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) online in GEOS-5. CARMA is a sectional aerosol-cloud microphysical model, capable of treating both aerosol size and composition explicitly be resolving the aerosol distribution into a variable number of size and composition groupings. Here we present first simulations of dust, sea salt, and smoke aerosols in GEOS-5 as treated by CARMA. These simulations are compared to available aerosol satellite, ground, and aircraft data and as well compared to the simulated distributions in our current GOCART based system.

  20. Iron Levels in Hepatocytes and Portal Tract Cells Predict Progression and Outcome of Patients with Advanced Chronic Hepatitis C1

    PubMed Central

    Lambrecht, Richard W.; Sterling, Richard K.; Naishadham, Deepa; Stoddard, Anne M.; Rogers, Thomas; Morishima, Chihiro; Morgan, Timothy R.; Bonkovsky, Herbert L.

    2011-01-01

    Background & Aims Iron might influence severity and progression of non-hemochromatotic liver diseases. We assessed the relationships between iron, variants in HFE, and progression and outcomes using data from the HALT-C Trial. We determined whether therapy with pegylated interferon (PegIFN) affects iron variables. Methods Participants were randomly assigned to groups given long-term therapy with PegIFN (n=400) or no therapy (n=413) for 3.5 y and followed for up to 8.7 y (median 6.0 y). Associations between patient characteristics and iron variables, at baseline and over time, were made using Kaplan-Meier analyses, Cox regression models, and repeated measures analysis of covariance. Iron was detected by Prussian blue staining. Results Patients with poor outcomes (increase in Child-Turcotte-Pugh score to ≥ 7, development of ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatocellular carcinoma, death) had significantly higher baseline scores for stainable iron in hepatocytes and cells in portal tracts than those without outcomes. Staining for iron in portal triads correlated with lobular and total Ishak inflammatory and fibrosis scores (P<0.0001). High baseline levels of iron in triads increased the risk for poor outcome (hazard ratio=1.35, P=0.02). Iron staining decreased in hepatocytes but increased in portal stromal cells over time (P<0.0001). Serum levels of iron and total iron binding capacity decreased significantly over time (P <0.0001), as did serum ferritin (P=0.0003). Long-term therapy with PegIFN did not affect levels of iron staining. Common variants in HFE did not correlate with outcomes, including development of hepatocellular carcinoma. Conclusions Degree of stainable iron in hepatocytes and portal tract cells predicts progression and clinical and histological outcomes of patients with advanced chronic hepatitis C. Long-term therapy with low-dose PegIFN did not improve outcomes or iron variables. PMID:21335007

  1. Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for improved regional weather prediction and monitoring of greenhouse gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagano, Thomas S.; Chahine, Moustafa T.; Susskind, Joel

    2008-12-01

    Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g. the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on MetOp) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast1. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

  2. Advanced colorectal adenoma related gene expression signature may predict prognostic for colorectal cancer patients with adenoma-carcinoma sequence

    PubMed Central

    Li, Bing; Shi, Xiao-Yu; Liao, Dai-Xiang; Cao, Bang-Rong; Luo, Cheng-Hua; Cheng, Shu-Jun

    2015-01-01

    Background: There are still no absolute parameters predicting progression of adenoma into cancer. The present study aimed to characterize functional differences on the multistep carcinogenetic process from the adenoma-carcinoma sequence. Methods: All samples were collected and mRNA expression profiling was performed by using Agilent Microarray high-throughput gene-chip technology. Then, the characteristics of mRNA expression profiles of adenoma-carcinoma sequence were described with bioinformatics software, and we analyzed the relationship between gene expression profiles of adenoma-adenocarcinoma sequence and clinical prognosis of colorectal cancer. Results: The mRNA expressions of adenoma-carcinoma sequence were significantly different between high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia group and adenocarcinoma group. The biological process of gene ontology function enrichment analysis on differentially expressed genes between high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia group and adenocarcinoma group showed that genes enriched in the extracellular structure organization, skeletal system development, biological adhesion and itself regulated growth regulation, with the P value after FDR correction of less than 0.05. In addition, IPR-related protein mainly focused on the insulin-like growth factor binding proteins. Conclusion: The variable trends of gene expression profiles for adenoma-carcinoma sequence were mainly concentrated in high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia and adenocarcinoma. The differentially expressed genes are significantly correlated between high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia group and adenocarcinoma group. Bioinformatics analysis is an effective way to study the gene expression profiles in the adenoma-carcinoma sequence, and may provide an effective tool to involve colorectal cancer research strategy into colorectal adenoma or advanced adenoma. PMID:26131062

  3. Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for Improved Regional Weather Prediction and Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pagano, Thomas S.; Chahine, Moustafa T.; Susskind, Joel

    2008-01-01

    Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g., the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on Met Op) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1 km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

  4. Systemic inflammatory status at baseline predicts bevacizumab benefit in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Botta, Cirino; Barbieri, Vito; Ciliberto, Domenico; Rossi, Antonio; Rocco, Danilo; Addeo, Raffaele; Staropoli, Nicoletta; Pastina, Pierpaolo; Marvaso, Giulia; Martellucci, Ignazio; Guglielmo, Annamaria; Pirtoli, Luigi; Sperlongano, Pasquale; Gridelli, Cesare; Caraglia, Michele; Tassone, Pierfrancesco; Tagliaferri, Pierosandro; Correale, Pierpaolo

    2013-01-01

    Bevacizumab is a humanized anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody able to produce clinical benefit in advanced non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients when combined to chemotherapy. At present, while there is a rising attention to bevacizumab-related adverse events and costs, no clinical or biological markers have been identified and validated for baseline patient selection. Preclinical findings suggest an important role for myeloid-derived inflammatory cells, such as neutrophils and monocytes, in the development of VEGF-independent angiogenesis. We conducted a retrospective analysis to investigate the role of peripheral blood cells count and of an inflammatory index, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), as predictors of clinical outcome in NSCLC patients treated with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy. One hundred twelve NSCLC patients treated with chemotherapy ± bevacizumab were retrospectively evaluated for the predictive value of clinical or laboratory parameters correlated with inflammatory status. Univariate analysis revealed that a high number of circulating neutrophils and monocytes as well as a high NLR were associated with shorter progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in bevacizumab-treated patients only. We have thus developed a model based on the absence or the presence of at least one of the above-mentioned inflammatory parameters. We found that the absence of all variables strongly correlated with longer PFS and OS (9.0 vs. 7.0 mo, HR: 0.39, p = 0.002; and 20.0 vs. 12.0 mo, HR: 0.29, p < 0.001 respectively) only in NSCLC patients treated with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy. Our results suggest that a baseline systemic inflammatory status is marker of resistance to bevacizumab treatment in NSCLC patients. PMID:23760488

  5. Systemic inflammatory status at baseline predicts bevacizumab benefit in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Botta, Cirino; Barbieri, Vito; Ciliberto, Domenico; Rossi, Antonio; Rocco, Danilo; Addeo, Raffaele; Staropoli, Nicoletta; Pastina, Pierpaolo; Marvaso, Giulia; Martellucci, Ignazio; Guglielmo, Annamaria; Pirtoli, Luigi; Sperlongano, Pasquale; Gridelli, Cesare; Caraglia, Michele; Tassone, Pierfrancesco; Tagliaferri, Pierosandro; Correale, Pierpaolo

    2013-06-01

    Bevacizumab is a humanized anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody able to produce clinical benefit in advanced non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients when combined to chemotherapy. At present, while there is a rising attention to bevacizumab-related adverse events and costs, no clinical or biological markers have been identified and validated for baseline patient selection. Preclinical findings suggest an important role for myeloid-derived inflammatory cells, such as neutrophils and monocytes, in the development of VEGF-independent angiogenesis. We conducted a retrospective analysis to investigate the role of peripheral blood cells count and of an inflammatory index, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), as predictors of clinical outcome in NSCLC patients treated with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy. One hundred and twelve NSCLC patients treated with chemotherapy ± bevacizumab were retrospectively evaluated for the predictive value of clinical or laboratory parameters correlated with inflammatory status. Univariate analysis revealed that a high number of circulating neutrophils and monocytes as well as a high NLR were associated with shorter progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in bevacizumab-treated patients only. We have thus developed a model based on the absence or the presence of at least one of the above-mentioned inflammatory parameters. We found that the absence of all variables strongly correlated with longer PFS and OS (9.0 vs. 7.0 mo, HR: 0.39, p = 0.002; and 20.0 vs. 12.0 mo, HR: 0.29, p < 0.001 respectively) only in NSCLC patients treated with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy. Our results suggest that a baseline systemic inflammatory status is marker of resistance to bevacizumab treatment in NSCLC patients. PMID:23760488

  6. Comparison of the PLTEMP code flow instability predictions with measurements made with electrically heated channels for the advanced test reactor.

    SciTech Connect

    Feldman, E.

    2011-06-09

    When the University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR) was designed in the 1960s the potential for fuel element burnout by a phenomenon referred to at that time as 'autocatalytic vapor binding' was of serious concern. This type of burnout was observed to occur at power levels considerably lower than those that were known to cause critical heat flux. The conversion of the MURR from HEU fuel to LEU fuel will probably require significant design changes, such as changes in coolant channel thicknesses, that could affect the thermal-hydraulic behavior of the reactor core. Therefore, the redesign of the MURR to accommodate an LEU core must address the same issues of fuel element burnout that were of concern in the 1960s. The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) was designed at about the same time as the MURR and had similar concerns with regard to fuel element burnout. These concerns were addressed in the ATR by two groups of thermal-hydraulic tests that employed electrically heated simulated fuel channels. The Croft (1964), Reference 1, tests were performed at ANL. The Waters (1966), Reference 2, tests were performed at Hanford Laboratories in Richland Washington. Since fuel element surface temperatures rise rapidly as burnout conditions are approached, channel surface temperatures were carefully monitored in these experiments. For self-protection, the experimental facilities were designed to cut off the electric power when rapidly increasing surface temperatures were detected. In both the ATR reactor and in the tests with electrically heated channels, the heated length of the fuel plate was 48 inches, which is about twice that of the MURR. Whittle and Forgan (1967) independently conducted tests with electrically heated rectangular channels that were similar to the tests by Croft and by Walters. In the Whittle and Forgan tests the heated length of the channel varied among the tests and was between 16 and 24 inches. Both Waters and Whittle and Forgan show that the cause of the

  7. Numerical framework and performance of the new multiple-phase cloud microphysics scheme in RegCM4.5: precipitation, cloud microphysics, and cloud radiative effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nogherotto, Rita; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Giuliani, Graziano; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo

    2016-07-01

    We implement and evaluate a new parameterization scheme for stratiform cloud microphysics and precipitation within regional climate model RegCM4. This new parameterization is based on a multiple-phase one-moment cloud microphysics scheme built upon the implicit numerical framework recently developed and implemented in the ECMWF operational forecasting model. The parameterization solves five prognostic equations for water vapour, cloud liquid water, rain, cloud ice, and snow mixing ratios. Compared to the pre-existing scheme, it allows a proper treatment of mixed-phase clouds and a more physically realistic representation of cloud microphysics and precipitation. Various fields from a 10-year long integration of RegCM4 run in tropical band mode with the new scheme are compared with their counterparts using the previous cloud scheme and are evaluated against satellite observations. In addition, an assessment using the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observational Simulator Package (COSP) for a 1-year sub-period provides additional information for evaluating the cloud optical properties against satellite data. The new microphysics parameterization yields an improved simulation of cloud fields, and in particular it removes the overestimation of upper level cloud characteristics of the previous scheme, increasing the agreement with observations and leading to an amelioration of a long-standing problem in the RegCM system. The vertical cloud profile produced by the new scheme leads to a considerably improvement of the representation of the longwave and shortwave components of the cloud radiative forcing.

  8. Evaluation of Cloud-resolving and Limited Area Model Intercomparison Simulations using TWP-ICE Observations. Part 2: Rain Microphysics

    SciTech Connect

    Varble, Adam; Zipser, Edward J.; Fridlind, Ann; Zhu, Ping; Ackerman, Andrew; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Fan, Jiwen; Hill, Adrian; Shipway, Ben; Williams, Christopher R.

    2014-12-27

    Ten 3D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations and four 3D limited area model (LAM) simulations of an intense mesoscale convective system observed on January 23-24, 2006 during the Tropical Warm Pool – International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) are compared with each other and with observations and retrievals from a scanning polarimetric radar, co-located UHF and VHF vertical profilers, and a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer in an attempt to explain published results showing a low bias in simulated stratiform rainfall. Despite different forcing methodologies, similar precipitation microphysics errors appear in CRMs and LAMs with differences that depend on the details of the bulk microphysics scheme used. One-moment schemes produce too many small raindrops, which biases Doppler velocities low, but produces rain water contents (RWCs) that are similar to observed. Two-moment rain schemes with a gamma shape parameter (μ) of 0 produce excessive size sorting, which leads to larger Doppler velocities than those produced in one-moment schemes, but lower RWCs than observed. Two moment schemes also produce a convective median volume diameter distribution that is too broad relative to observations and thus, may have issues balancing raindrop formation, collision coalescence, and raindrop breakup. Assuming a μ of 2.5 rather than 0 for the raindrop size distribution improves one-moment scheme biases, and allowing μ to have values greater than 0 may improve two-moment schemes. Under-predicted stratiform rain rates are associated with under-predicted ice water contents at the melting level rather than excessive rain evaporation, in turn likely associated with convective detrainment that is too high in the troposphere and mesoscale circulations that are too weak. In addition to stronger convective updrafts than observed, limited domain size prevents a large, well-developed stratiform region from developing in CRMs, while a dry bias in ECMWF analyses does the same to the LAMs.

  9. Profiling of aerosol microphysical properties at several EARLINET/AERONET sites during July 2012 ChArMEx/EMEP campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granados-Muñoz, M. J.; Navas-Guzmán, F.; Guerrero-Rascado, J. L.; Bravo-Aranda, J. A.; Binietoglou, I.; Pereira, S. N.; Basart, S.; Baldasano, J. M.; Belegante, L.; Chaikovsky, A.; Comerón, A.; D'Amico, G.; Dubovik, O.; Ilic, L.; Kokkalis, P.; Muñoz-Porcar, C.; Nickovic, S.; Nicolae, D.; Olmo, F. J.; Papayannis, A.; Pappalardo, G.; Rodríguez, A.; Schepanski, K.; Sicard, M.; Vukovic, A.; Wandinger, U.; Dulac, F.; Alados-Arboledas, L.

    2015-11-01

    The analysis of aerosol microphysical properties profiles at different European stations is made in the framework of the ChArMEx/EMEP 2012 field campaign (9-11 July 2012). During and in support to this campaign, five lidar ground-based stations (Athens, Barcelona, Bucharest, Évora and Granada) performed 72 h of continuous lidar and collocated and coincident sun-photometer measurements. Therefore it was possible to retrieve volume concentration profiles with the Lidar Radiometer Inversion Code (LIRIC). Results indicated the presence of a mineral dust plume affecting the Western Mediterranean region (mainly Granada station) whereas a different aerosol plume was observed over the Balkans area. LIRIC profiles showed a predominance of coarse spheroid particles above Granada, as expected for mineral dust, and an aerosol plume composed mainly of fine and coarse spherical particles above Athens and Bucharest. Due to the exceptional characteristics of the ChArMEx database, the analysis of the microphysical properties profiles temporal evolution was also possible. An in depth analysis was performed mainly at Granada station because of the availability of continuous lidar measurements and frequent AERONET inversion retrievals. The analysis at Granada was of special interest since the station was affected by mineral dust during the complete analyzed period. LIRIC was found to be a very useful tool for performing continuous monitoring of mineral dust, allowing for the analysis of the dynamics of the dust event in the vertical and temporal coordinates. Results obtained here illustrate the importance of having collocated and simultaneous advanced lidar and sun-photometer measurements in order to characterize the aerosol microphysical properties both in the vertical and temporal coordinates at a regional scale. In addition, this study revealed that the use of the depolarization information as input in LIRIC in the stations of Bucharest, Évora and Granada was crucial for the

  10. Linking Complex Problem Solving and General Mental Ability to Career Advancement: Does a Transversal Skill Reveal Incremental Predictive Validity?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mainert, Jakob; Kretzschmar, André; Neubert, Jonas C.; Greiff, Samuel

    2015-01-01

    Transversal skills, such as complex problem solving (CPS) are viewed as central twenty-first-century skills. Recent empirical findings have already supported the importance of CPS for early academic advancement. We wanted to determine whether CPS could also contribute to the understanding of career advancement later in life. Towards this end, we…

  11. Cloudy - simulating the non-equilibrium microphysics of gas and dust, and its observed spectrum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferland, Gary J.

    2014-01-01

    Cloudy is an open-source plasma/spectral simulation code, last described in the open-access journal Revista Mexicana (Ferland et al. 2013, 2013RMxAA..49..137F). The project goal is a complete simulation of the microphysics of gas and dust over the full range of density, temperature, and ionization that we encounter in astrophysics, together with a prediction of the observed spectrum. Cloudy is one of the more widely used theory codes in astrophysics with roughly 200 papers citing its documentation each year. It is developed by graduate students, postdocs, and an international network of collaborators. Cloudy is freely available on the web at trac.nublado.org, the user community can post questions on http://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/cloudy_simulations/info, and summer schools are organized to learn more about Cloudy and its use (http://cloud9.pa.uky.edu gary/cloudy/CloudySummerSchool/). The code’s widespread use is possible because of extensive automatic testing. It is exercised over its full range of applicability whenever the source is changed. Changes in predicted quantities are automatically detected along with any newly introduced problems. The code is designed to be autonomous and self-aware. It generates a report at the end of a calculation that summarizes any problems encountered along with suggestions of potentially incorrect boundary conditions. This self-monitoring is a core feature since the code is now often used to generate large MPI grids of simulations, making it impossible for a user to verify each calculation by hand. I will describe some challenges in developing a large physics code, with its many interconnected physical processes, many at the frontier of research in atomic or molecular physics, all in an open environment.

  12. In Situ Microphysical and Scattering Properties of Falling Snow in GPM-GCPEx

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duffy, G.; Nesbitt, S. W.; McFarquhar, G. M.; Poellot, M.; Chandrasekar, C. V.; Hudak, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Precipitation Measurement Cold-season Precipitation Experiment (GPM-GCPEx) field campaign was conducted near Egbert, Ontario, Canada in January-February 2012 to study the physical characteristics and microwave radiative properties of the column of hydrometeors in cold season precipitation events. Extensive in situ aircraft profiling was conducted with the University of North Dakota (UND) Citation aircraft within the volume of several remote sensing instruments within a wide variety of precipitation events, from snow to freezing drizzle. Several of the primary goals of GCPEx include improving our understanding of the microphysical characteristics of falling snow and how those characteristics relate to the multi-wavelength radiative characteristics In this study, particle size distribution parameters, effective particle densities, and habit distributions are determined using in-situ cloud measurements obtained on the UND citation using the High Volume Precipitation Spectrometer, the Cloud Particle Imager, and the Cloud Imaging Probe. These quantities are matched compared to multi-frequency radar measurements from the Environment Canada King City C-Band and NASA D3R Ku-Ka Band dual polarization radars. These analysis composites provide the basis for direct evaluation of particle size distributions and observed multi-wavelength and multi-polarization radar observations, including radar reflectivity, differential reflectivity, and dual wavelength ratio) in falling snow at weather radar and GPM radar frequencies. Theoretical predictions from Mie, Rayleigh-Gans, and more complex snowflake aggregate scattering model predictions using observed particle size distributions are compared with observed radar scattering characteristics along the Citation flight track.

  13. Microphysical processing of aerosol particles in orographic clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pousse-Nottelmann, S.; Zubler, E. M.; Lohmann, U.

    2015-08-01

    An explicit and detailed treatment of cloud-borne particles allowing for the consideration of aerosol cycling in clouds has been implemented into COSMO-Model, the regional weather forecast and climate model of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO). The effects of aerosol scavenging, cloud microphysical processing and regeneration upon cloud evaporation on the aerosol population and on subsequent cloud formation are investigated. For this, two-dimensional idealized simulations of moist flow over two bell-shaped mountains were carried out varying the treatment of aerosol scavenging and regeneration processes for a warm-phase and a mixed-phase orographic cloud. The results allowed us to identify different aerosol cycling mechanisms. In the simulated non-precipitating warm-phase cloud, aerosol mass is incorporated into cloud droplets by activation scavenging and released back to the atmosphere upon cloud droplet evaporation. In the mixed-phase cloud, a first cycle comprises cloud droplet activation and evaporation via the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process. A second cycle includes below-cloud scavenging by precipitating snow particles and snow sublimation and is connected to the first cycle via the riming process which transfers aerosol mass from cloud droplets to snowflakes. In the simulated mixed-phase cloud, only a negligible part of the total aerosol mass is incorporated into ice crystals. Sedimenting snowflakes reaching the surface remove aerosol mass from the atmosphere. The results show that aerosol processing and regeneration lead to a vertical redistribution of aerosol mass and number. Thereby, the processes impact the total aerosol number and mass and additionally alter the shape of the aerosol size distributions by enhancing the internally mixed/soluble Aitken and accumulation mode and generating coarse-mode particles. Concerning subsequent cloud formation at the second mountain, accounting for aerosol processing and regeneration increases

  14. Cloud microphysical background for the Israel-4 cloud seeding experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freud, Eyal; Koussevitzky, Hagai; Goren, Tom; Rosenfeld, Daniel

    2015-05-01

    The modest amount of rainfall in Israel occurs in winter storms that bring convective clouds from the Mediterranean Sea when the cold post frontal air interacts with its relatively warm surface. These clouds were seeded in the Israel-1 and Israel-2 cloud glaciogenic seeding experiments, which have shown statistically significant positive effect of added rainfall of at least 13% in northern Israel, whereas the Israel-3 experiment showed no added rainfall in the south. This was followed by operational seeding in the north since 1975. The lack of physical evidence for the causes of the positive effects in the north caused a lack of confidence in the statistical results and led to the Israel-4 randomized seeding experiment in northern Israel. This experiment started in the winter of 2013/14. The main difference from the previous experiments is the focus on the orographic clouds in the catchment of the Sea of Galilee. The decision to commence the experiment was partially based on evidence supporting the existence of seeding potential, which is reported here. Aircraft and satellite microphysical and dynamic measurements of the clouds document the critical roles of aerosols, especially sea spray, on cloud microstructure and precipitation forming processes. It was found that the convective clouds over sea and coastal areas are naturally seeded hygroscopically by sea spray and develop precipitation efficiently. The diminution of the large sea spray aerosols farther inland along with the increase in aerosol concentrations causes the clouds to develop precipitation more slowly. The short time available for the precipitation forming processes in super-cooled orographic clouds over the Golan Heights farthest inland represents the best glaciogenic seeding potential.

  15. The predictability of serum anti-Müllerian level in IVF/ICSI outcomes for patients of advanced reproductive age

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The role of serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) as predictor of in-vitro fertilization outcomes has been much debated. The aim of the present study is to investigate the practicability of combining serum AMH level with biological age as a simple screening method for counseling IVF candidates of advanced reproductive age with potential poor outcomes prior to treatment initiation. Methods A total of 1,538 reference patients and 116 infertile patients aged greater than or equal to 40 years enrolled in IVF/ICSI cycles were recruited in this retrospective analysis. A reference chart of the age-related distribution of serum AMH level for Asian population was first created. IVF/ICSI patients aged greater than or equal to 40 years were then divided into three groups according to the low, middle and high tertiles the serum AMH tertiles derived from the reference population of matching age. The cycle outcomes were analyzed and compared among each individual group. Results For reference subjects aged greater than or equal to 40 years, the serum AMH of the low, middle and high tertiles were equal or lesser than 0.48, 0.49-1.22 and equal or greater than 1.23 ng/mL respectively. IVF/ICSI patients aged greater than or equal to 40 years with AMH levels in the low tertile had the highest cycle cancellation rate (47.6%) with zero clinical pregnancy. The nadir AMH level that has achieved live birth was 0.56 ng/mL, which was equivalent to the 36.4th percentile of AMH level from the age-matched reference group. The optimum cut-off levels of AMH for the prediction of nonpregnancy and cycle cancellation were 1.05 and 0.68 ng/mL, respectively. Conclusions Two criteria: (1) age greater than or equal to 40 years and (2) serum AMH level in the lowest tertile (equal or lesser than 33.3rd percentile) of the matching age group, may be used as markers of futility for counseling IVF/ICSI candidates. PMID:21843363

  16. NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena

    2010-01-01

    AIRS (Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder), was launched, in conjunction with AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) on the NASA polar orbiting research satellite EOS (Earth Observing System) Aqua satellite in May 2002 as a next generation atmospheric sounding system. Atmospheric sounders provide information primarily about the vertical distribution of atmospheric temperature and water vapor distribution. This is achieved by measuring outgoing radiation in discrete channels (spectral intervals) which are sensitive primarily to variations of these geophysical parameters. The primary objectives of AIRS/AMSU were to utilize such information in order to improve the skill of numerical weather prediction as well as to measure climate variability and trends. AIRS is a multi-detector array grating spectrometer with 2378 channels covering the spectral range 650/cm (15 microns) to 2660/cm (3.6 microns) with a resolving power (i/a i) of roughly 1200 where a i is the spectral channel bandpass. Atmospheric temperature profile can be determined from channel observations taken within the 15 micron (the long-wave CO2 absorption band) and within the 4.2 micron (the short-wave CO2 absorption band). Radiances in these (and all other) spectral intervals in the infrared are also sensitive to the presence of clouds in the instrument?s field of view (FOV), which are present about 95% of the time. AIRS was designed so as to allow for the ability to produce accurate Quality Controlled atmospheric soundings under most cloud conditions. This was achieved by having 1) extremely low channel noise values in the shortwave portion of the spectrum and 2) a very flat spatial response function within a channel?s FOV. IASI, the high spectral resolution IR interferometer flying on the European METOP satellite, does not contain either of these important characteristics. The AIRS instrument was also designed to be extremely stabile with regard to its spectral radiometric characteristics, which is

  17. Meteorology, Macrophysics, Microphysics, Microwaves, and Mesoscale Modeling of Mediterranean Mountain Storms: The M8 Laboratory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor); Smith, Eric A.

    2002-01-01

    Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms can be accomplished by a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, from synoptic scale down through the mesoscale, the cloud macrophysical scale, and ultimately the cloud microphysical scale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. This involves intense convective development, stratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that affect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted in this study by three mountain storms producing damaging floods in northern Italy between 1992 and 2000, developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within a storm domain. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size disi:ributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within hazardous storm environments.

  18. What can the CMB tell about the microphysics of cosmic reheating?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drewes, Marco

    2016-03-01

    In inflationary cosmology, cosmic reheating after inflation sets the initial conditions for the hot big bang. We investigate how CMB data can be used to study the effective potential and couplings of the inflaton during reheating to constrain the underlying microphysics. If there is a phase of preheating that is driven by a parametric resonance or other instability, then the thermal history and expansion history during the reheating era depend on a large number of microphysical parameters in a complicated way. In this case the connection between CMB observables and microphysical parameters can only established with intense numerical studies. Such studies can help to improve CMB constraints on the effective inflaton potential in specific models, but parameter degeneracies usually make it impossible to extract meaningful best-fit values for individual microphysical parameters. If, on the other hand, reheating is driven by perturbative processes, then it can be possible to constrain the inflaton couplings and the reheating temperature from CMB data. This provides an indirect probe of fundamental microphysical parameters that most likely can never be measured directly in the laboratory, but have an immense impact on the evolution of the cosmos by setting the stage for the hot big bang.

  19. The Influence of Dust-radiation-microphysics Processes on Tropical Cyclone Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, S.; Cheng, C.; Chen, J.; Lin, Y.; Lee, H.; Tsai, I.

    2011-12-01

    Saharan dust can modify the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and its environment by changing the energy budget through direct and indirect radiative forcing. Scattering and absorption of radiation by suspended dust directly modifies the energy budget in the atmosphere and at the surface. Smaller dust particles can remain suspended in the air for prolonged periods and propagate over the Atlantic Ocean along with SAL. These fine particles can reach an altitude of 8-9 km, where they nucleate ice crystals and transform cloud microphysical properties, indirectly changing the energy budget. Thus, the dust within the air mass is likely to affect the evolution of hurricane properties, life cycles, and the corresponding cloud systems through the dust-cloud-radiation interactions. A tracer model based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (named WRFT) was developed to study the influence of dust-radiation-microphysics effects on hurricane activities. The dust-radiation effects and a two-moment microphysics scheme with dust particles acting as ice nuclei were implemented into WRFT. In this work, two easterly waves, which were precursors of Tropical Storm Debby and Hurricane Ernesto, during 18-25 August 2006 were studied. Four high-resolution numerical experiments were conducted with the combinations of activating/deactivating dust-radiation and/or dust-microphysics processes. Results from these four experiments are compared to investigate the influence of dust-radiation-microphysics processes on these two storm developments.

  20. A Lagrangian drop model to study warm rain microphysical processes in shallow cumulus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naumann, Ann Kristin; Seifert, Axel

    2015-09-01

    In this study, we introduce a Lagrangian drop (LD) model to study warm rain microphysical processes in shallow cumulus. The approach combines Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) including a bulk microphysics parameterization with an LD model for raindrop growth. The LD model is one-way coupled with the Eulerian LES and represents all relevant rain microphysical processes such as evaporation, accretion, and selfcollection among LDs as well as dynamical effects such as sedimentation and inertia. To test whether the LD model is fit for purpose, a sensitivity study for isolated shallow cumulus clouds is conducted. We show that the surface precipitation rate and the development of the raindrop size distribution are sensitive to the treatment of selfcollection in the LD model. Some uncertainty remains for the contribution of the subgrid-scale turbulence to the relative velocity difference of a pair of LDs, which appears as a factor in the collision kernel. Sensitivities to other model parameters such as the initial multiplicity or the initial mass distribution are small. Overall, sensitivities of the LD model are small compared to the uncertainties in the assumptions of the bulk rain microphysics scheme, and the LD model is well suited for particle-based studies of raindrop growth and dynamics. This opens up the opportunity to study effects like recirculation, deviations from terminal fall velocity and other microphysical phenomena that so far were not accessible for bin, bulk, or parcel models.

  1. Evaluation of Cloud Microphysics Simulated using a Meso-Scale Model Coupled with a Spectral Bin Microphysical Scheme through Comparison with Observation Data by Ship-Borne Doppler and Space-Borne W-Band Radars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iguchi, T.; Nakajima, T.; Khain, A. P.; Saito, K.; Takemura, T.; Okamoto, H.; Nishizawa, T.; Tao, W.-K.

    2012-01-01

    Equivalent radar reflectivity factors (Ze) measured by W-band radars are directly compared with the corresponding values calculated from a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic meso-scale model coupled with a spectral-bin-microphysical (SBM) scheme for cloud. Three case studies are the objects of this research: one targets a part of ship-borne observation using 95 GHz Doppler radar over the Pacific Ocean near Japan in May 2001; other two are aimed at two short segments of space-borne observation by the cloud profiling radar on CloudSat in November 2006. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations reproduce general features of vertical structures of Ze and Doppler velocity. A main problem in the reproducibility is an overestimation of Ze in ice cloud layers. A frequency analysis shows a strong correlation between ice water contents (IWC) and Ze in the simulation; this characteristic is similar to those shown in prior on-site studies. From comparing with the empirical correlations by the prior studies, the simulated Ze is overestimated than the corresponding values in the studies at the same IWC. Whereas the comparison of Doppler velocities suggests that large-size snowflakes are necessary for producing large velocities under the freezing level and hence rules out the possibility that an overestimation of snow size causes the overestimation of Ze. Based on the results of several sensitivity tests, we conclude that the source of the overestimation is a bias in the microphysical calculation of Ze or an overestimation of IWC. To identify the source of the problems needs further validation research with other follow-up observations.

  2. Simulation of cloud microphysical and chemical processes using a multicomponent framework. Part 2: Microphysical evolution of a wintertime orographic cloud

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, J.P. . Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences); Lamb, D. . Dept. of Meteorology)

    1999-07-15

    A detailed microphysical model is used to simulate the formation of wintertime orographic clouds in a two-dimensional domain under steady-state conditions. Mass contents and number concentrations of both liquid- and ice-phase cloud particles are calculated to be in reasonable agreement with observations. The ice particles in the cloud, as well as those precipitated to the surface, are classified into small cloud ice, planar crystals, columnar crystals, heavily rimed crystals, and crystal aggregates. Detailed examination of the results reveals that contact nucleation and rime splintering are the major ice-production mechanisms functioning in the warmer part of the cloud, whereas deposition/condensation-freezing nucleation is dominant at the upper levels. Surface precipitation, either in the form of rain or snow, develops mainly through riming and aggregation, removing over 17% of the total water vapor that entered the cloud. The spectral distributions of cloud particles in a multicomponent framework provide information not only on particle sizes but also on their solute contents and, for ice particles, their shapes. Examination of these multicomponent distributions reveals the mechanisms of particle formation and interaction, as well as the adaptation of crystal habits to the ambient conditions. Additional simulations were done to test the sensitivity of cloud and precipitation formation to the size distribution of aerosol particles. It is found that the size distribution of aerosol particles has significant influence on not only the warm-cloud processes, but also the cold-cloud processes. A reduction in aerosol particle concentration not only causes an earlier precipitation development but also an increase in the amount of total precipitation from the orographic clouds.

  3. Microphysical Properties of Warm Clouds During The Aircraft Take-Off and Landing Over Bucharest, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stefan, Sabina; Nicolae Vajaiac, Sorin; Boscornea, Andreea

    2016-06-01

    This paper is focused on airborne measurements of microphysical parameters into warm clouds when the aircraft penetrates the cloud, both during take-off and landing. The experiment was conducted during the aircraft flight between Bucharest and Craiova, in the southern part of Romania. The duration of the experimental flight was 2 hours and 35 minutes in October 7th, 2014, but the present study is dealing solely with the analysis of cloud microphysical properties at the beginning of the experiment (during the aircraft take-off) and at the end, when it got finalized by the aircraft landing procedure. The processing and interpretation of the measurements showed the differences between microphysical parameters, emphasizing that the type of cloud over Bucharest changed, as it was expected. In addition, the results showed that it is important to take into account both the synoptic context and the cloud perturbation due to the velocity of the aircraft, in such cases.

  4. Simulation of cirrus clouds with a quasi 2-moment microphysical scheme: a 1D case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinty, J.-P.

    2003-04-01

    Cirrus clouds are receiving a great scientific interest because of their importance on the climate system through their impact on the radiation budget and on the physico-chemical balance of the upper troposphere. In this presentation, we concentrate on the application of a mixed-phase 2-moment microphysical scheme to simulate cirrus cloud properties with various ice nucleation modes. The complete scheme is implemented in the multi-purpose mesoscale model MésoNH with several capabilities (3D real vs. academic flows, grid-nesting, etc.). The 1D FIRE and subvisible test cases of Jensen et al. (1994 and 1996 both in JGR) are selected in the present study. The simulations are performed with a similar a thermo-dynamical and dynamical framework and microphysical results are analysed. Additional variations of some critical input parameters (CCN and IN concentrations, vertical velocity and ice characteristics) are explored to test the sensitivity of the microphysical scheme.

  5. Influence of microphysics on the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Martin S.; O'Gorman, Paul A.

    2014-08-01

    Simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with a cloud-system resolving model are used to investigate the scaling of high percentiles of the precipitation distribution (precipitation extremes) over a wide range of surface temperatures. At surface temperatures above roughly 295 K, precipitation extremes increase with warming in proportion to the increase in surface moisture, following what is termed Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. At lower temperatures, the rate of increase of precipitation extremes depends on the choice of cloud and precipitation microphysics scheme and the accumulation period, and it differs markedly from CC scaling in some cases. Precipitation extremes are found to be sensitive to the fall speeds of hydrometeors, and this partly explains the different scaling results obtained with different microphysics schemes. The results suggest that microphysics play an important role in determining the response of convective precipitation extremes to warming, particularly when ice- and mixed-phase processes are important.

  6. Precipitation and microphysical studies with a low cost high resolution X-band radar: an innovative project prospective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Baelen, J.; Pointin, Y.; Wobrock, W.; Flossmann, A.; Peters, G.; Tridon, F.; Planche, C.

    2009-03-01

    This paper describes an innovative project which has just been launched at the "Laboratoire de Météorologie Physique" (LaMP) in Clermont-Ferrand in collaboration with the "Meteorologische Institut" in Hamburg, where a low cost X-band high resolution precipitation radar is combined with supporting measurements and a bin microphysical cloud resolving model in order to develop adapted Z-R relationships for accurate rain rate estimates over a local area such as a small catchment basin, an urban complex or even an agriculture domain. In particular, the use of K-band micro rain radars which can retrieve vertical profiles of drop size distribution and the associated reflectivity will be used to perform direct comparisons with X-band radar volume samples while a network of rain-gauges provides ground truth to which our rain estimates will be compared. Thus, the experimental suite of instrumentation should provide a detailed characterization of the various rain regimes and their associated Z-R relationship. Furthermore, we will make use of the hilly environment of the radar to test the use of novel attenuation methods in order to estimate rainfall rates. A second important aspect of this work is to use the detailed cloud modeling available at LaMP. Simulations of precipitating clouds in highly resolved 3-D dynamics model allow predicting the spectra of rain drops and precipitating ice particles. Radar reflectivity determined from these model studies will be compared with the observations in order to better understand which raindrop size spectrum shape factor should be applied to the radar algorithms as a function of the type of precipitating cloud. Likewise, these comparisons between the modeled and the observed reflectivity will also give us the opportunity to further improve our model microphysics and the parameterizations for meso-scale models.

  7. Alterations of Cloud Microphysics Due to Cloud Processed CCN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudson, J. G.; Tabor, S. S.; Noble, S. R., Jr.

    2015-12-01

    High-resolution CCN spectra have revealed bimodality (Hudson et al. 2015) similar to aerosol size spectra (e.g., Hoppel et al. 1985). Bimodality is caused by chemical and physical cloud processes that increase mass or hygroscopicity of only CCN that produced activated cloud droplets. Bimodality is categorized by relative CCN concentrations (NCCN) within the two modes, Nu-Np; i.e., NCCN within the higher critical supersaturation, Sc, mode that did not undergo cloud processing minus NCCN within the lower Sc mode that was cloud processed. Lower, especially negative, Nu-Np designates greater processing. The table shows regressions between Nu-Np and characteristics of clouds nearest the CCN measurements. ICE-T MASE parameter R SL R SL Nc 0.17 93.24 -0.26 98.65 MD -0.31 99.69 0.33 99.78 σ -0.27 99.04 0.48 100.00 Ld -0.31 99.61 0.38 99.96 Table. Correlation coefficients, R, and one-tailed significance levels in percent, SL, for Nu-Np with microphysics of the clouds closest to each CCN measurement, 75 ICE-T and 74 MASE cases. Nc is cloud droplet concentration, MD is cloud droplet mean diameter, σ is standard deviation of cloud droplet spectra, Ldis drizzle drop LWC. Two aircraft field campaigns, Ice in Clouds Experiment-Tropical (ICE-T) and Marine Stratus/Stratocumulus Experiment (MASE) show opposite R signs because coalescence dominated cloud processing in low altitude ICE-T cumuli whereas chemical transformations predominated in MASE low altitude polluted stratus. Coalescence reduces Nc and NCCN, which thus increases MD, and σ, which promote Ld. Chemical transformations, e.g., SO2 to SO4, increase CCN hygroscopicity, thus reducing Sc, but not affecting Nc or NCCN. Lower Sc CCN are capable of producing greater Nc in subsequent cloud cycles, which leads to lower MD and σ which reduce Ld (figure). These observations are consistent with cloud droplet growth models for the higher vertical wind (W) of cumuli and lower W of stratus. Coalescence thus reduces the indirect

  8. Prediction of plasma-induced damage distribution during silicon nitride etching using advanced three-dimensional voxel model

    SciTech Connect

    Kuboi, Nobuyuki Tatsumi, Tetsuya; Kinoshita, Takashi; Shigetoshi, Takushi; Fukasawa, Masanaga; Komachi, Jun; Ansai, Hisahiro

    2015-11-15

    The authors modeled SiN film etching with hydrofluorocarbon (CH{sub x}F{sub y}/Ar/O{sub 2}) plasma considering physical (ion bombardment) and chemical reactions in detail, including the reactivity of radicals (C, F, O, N, and H), the area ratio of Si dangling bonds, the outflux of N and H, the dependence of the H/N ratio on the polymer layer, and generation of by-products (HCN, C{sub 2}N{sub 2}, NH, HF, OH, and CH, in addition to CO, CF{sub 2}, SiF{sub 2}, and SiF{sub 4}) as ion assistance process parameters for the first time. The model was consistent with the measured C-F polymer layer thickness, etch rate, and selectivity dependence on process variation for SiN, SiO{sub 2}, and Si film etching. To analyze the three-dimensional (3D) damage distribution affected by the etched profile, the authors developed an advanced 3D voxel model that can predict the time-evolution of the etched profile and damage distribution. The model includes some new concepts for gas transportation in the pattern using a fluid model and the property of voxels called “smart voxels,” which contain details of the history of the etching situation. Using this 3D model, the authors demonstrated metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor SiN side-wall etching that consisted of the main-etch step with CF{sub 4}/Ar/O{sub 2} plasma and an over-etch step with CH{sub 3}F/Ar/O{sub 2} plasma under the assumption of a realistic process and pattern size. A large amount of Si damage induced by irradiated hydrogen occurred in the source/drain region, a Si recess depth of 5 nm was generated, and the dislocated Si was distributed in a 10 nm deeper region than the Si recess, which was consistent with experimental data for a capacitively coupled plasma. An especially large amount of Si damage was also found at the bottom edge region of the metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistors. Furthermore, our simulation results for bulk fin-type field-effect transistor side-wall etching

  9. Microphysics, Meteorology, Microwave and Modeling of Mediterranean Storms: The M(sup 5) Problem

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Eric A.; Fiorino, Steven; Mugnai, Alberto; Panegrossi, Giulia; Tripoli, Gregory; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, particularly from synoptic scale down to mesoscale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the September 25-28/1992 Genova flood event, the October 5-7/1998 Friuli flood event, and the October 13-15/2000 Piemonte flood event (all taking place in northern Italy), developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within the storm domains. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting proc esses. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size distributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within the storm environments. This paper presents detailed 4-dimensional analyses of the microphysical elements of the three severe Mediterranean storms identified above, investigated with the aid of SSM/I and TRMM satellite measurements (and other remote sensing measurements). The analyses are guided by nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulations at high resolution of the intense rain producing portions of the storm environments. The results emphasize how meteorological controls taking place at the large scale, coupled with localized terrain controls, ultimately determine the most salient features of the bulk microphysical

  10. Aerosol microphysical retrievals from precision filter radiometer direct solar radiation measurements and comparison with AERONET

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazadzis, S.; Veselovskii, I.; Amiridis, V.; Gröbner, J.; Suvorina, A.; Nyeki, S.; Gerasopoulos, E.; Kouremeti, N.; Taylor, M.; Tsekeri, A.; Wehrli, C.

    2014-07-01

    Synchronized sun-photometric measurements from the AERONET-CIMEL (AErosol RObotic NETwork) and GAW-PFR (Global Atmospheric Watch-Precision Filter Radiometer) aerosol networks are used to compare retrievals of the aerosol optical depth (AOD), effective radius, and volume concentration during a high-temporal-resolution measurement campaign at the Athens site in the Mediterranean Basin from 14 to 22 July 2009. During this period, direct-sun AOD retrievals from both instruments exhibited small differences in the range 0.01-0.02. The AODs measured with CIMEL and PFR instruments were inverted to retrieve particle microphysical properties using the linear estimation (LE) technique. For low aerosol loads (AOD < 0.2), measurements of the effective radius by the PFR were found to be -20% to +30% different from CIMEL values for both direct-sun data and inversion data. At higher loads (AOD > 0.4), measurements of the effective radius by the PFR are consistently 20 % lower than CIMEL for both direct-sun and inversion data. Volume concentrations at low aerosol loads from the PFR are up to 80% higher than the CIMEL for direct-sun data but are up to 20% lower when derived from inversion data under these same conditions. At higher loads, the percentage difference in volume concentrations from the PFR and CIMEL is systematically negative, with inversion data predicting differences 30% lower than those obtained from direct-sun data. An assessment of the effect of errors in the AOD retrieval on the estimation of PFR bulk parameters was performed and demonstrates that it is possible to estimate the particle volume concentration and effective radius with an uncertainty < 65% when AOD < 0.2 and when input errors are as high as 10%.

  11. The discriminatory capability of existing scores to predict advanced colorectal neoplasia: a prospective colonoscopy study of 5,899 screening participants

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Martin C. S.; Ching, Jessica Y. L.; Ng, Simpson; Lam, Thomas Y. T.; Luk, Arthur K. C.; Wong, Sunny H.; Ng, Siew C.; Ng, Simon S. M.; Wu, Justin C. Y.; Chan, Francis K. L.; Sung, Joseph J. Y.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of seven existing risk scoring systems in predicting advanced colorectal neoplasia in an asymptomatic Chinese cohort. We prospectively recruited 5,899 Chinese subjects aged 50–70 years in a colonoscopy screening programme(2008–2014). Scoring systems under evaluation included two scoring tools from the US; one each from Spain, Germany, and Poland; the Korean Colorectal Screening(KCS) scores; and the modified Asia Pacific Colorectal Screening(APCS) scores. The c-statistics, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values(PPVs), and negative predictive values(NPVs) of these systems were evaluated. The resources required were estimated based on the Number Needed to Screen(NNS) and the Number Needed to Refer for colonoscopy(NNR). Advanced neoplasia was detected in 364 (6.2%) subjects. The German system referred the least proportion of subjects (11.2%) for colonoscopy, whilst the KCS scoring system referred the highest (27.4%). The c-statistics of all systems ranged from 0.56–0.65, with sensitivities ranging from 0.04–0.44 and specificities from 0.74–0.99. The modified APCS scoring system had the highest c-statistics (0.65, 95% C.I. 0.58–0.72). The NNS (12–19) and NNR (5-10) were similar among the scoring systems. The existing scoring systems have variable capability to predict advanced neoplasia among asymptomatic Chinese subjects, and further external validation should be performed. PMID:26838178

  12. MicroRNA Expression Profiling of Peripheral Blood Samples Predicts Resistance to First-line Sunitinib in Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma Patients12

    PubMed Central

    Gámez-Pozo, Angelo; Antón-Aparicio, Luis M; Bayona, Cristina; Borrega, Pablo; Gallegos Sancho, María I; García-Domínguez, Rocío; de Portugal, Teresa; Ramos-Vázquez, Manuel; Pérez-Carrión, Ramón; Bolós, María V; Madero, Rosario; Sánchez-Navarro, Iker; Fresno Vara, Juan A; Arranz, Enrique Espinosa

    2012-01-01

    Anti-angiogenic therapy benefits many patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC), but there is still a need for predictive markers that help in selecting the best therapy for individual patients. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) regulate cancer cell behavior and may be attractive biomarkers for prognosis and prediction of response. Forty-four patients with RCC were recruited into this observational prospective study conducted in nine Spanish institutions. Peripheral blood samples were taken before initiation of therapy and 14 days later in patients receiving first-line therapy with sunitinib for advanced RCC. miRNA expression in peripheral blood was assessed using microarrays and L2 boosting was applied to filtered miRNA expression data. Several models predicting poor and prolonged response to sunitinib were constructed and evaluated by binary logistic regression. Blood samples from 38 patients and 287 miRNAs were evaluated. Twenty-eight miRNAs of the 287 were related to poor response and 23 of the 287 were related to prolonged response to sunitinib treatment. Predictive models identified populations with differences in the established end points. In the poor response group, median time to progression was 3.5 months and the overall survival was 8.5, whereas in the prolonged response group these values were 24 and 29.5 months, respectively. Ontology analyses pointed out to cancer-related pathways, such angiogenesis and apoptosis. miRNA expression signatures, measured in peripheral blood, may stratify patients with advanced RCC according to their response to first-line therapy with sunitinib, improving diagnostic accuracy. After proper validation, these signatures could be used to tailor therapy in this setting. PMID:23308047

  13. A Cloud-Resolving Modeling Intercomparison Study on Properties of Cloud Microphysics, Convection, and Precipitation for a Squall Line Cas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, J.; Han, B.; Morrison, H.; Varble, A.; Mansell, E.; Milbrandt, J.; Wang, Y.; Lin, Y.; Dong, X.; Giangrande, S. E.; Jensen, M. P.; Collis, S. M.; North, K.; Kollias, P.

    2015-12-01

    The large spread in CRM model simulations of deep convection and aerosol effects on deep convective clouds (DCCs) makes it difficult (1) to further our understanding of deep convection and (2) to define "benchmarks" and recommendations for their use in parameterization developments. Past model intercomparison studies used different models with different complexities of dynamic-microphysics interactions, making it hard to isolate the causes of differences between simulations. In this intercomparison study, we employed a much more constrained approach - with the same model and same experiment setups for simulations with different cloud microphysics schemes (one-moment, two-moment, and bin models). Both the piggybacking and interactive approaches are employed to explore the major microphysical processes that control the model differences and the significance of their feedback to dynamics through latent heating/cooling and cold pool characteristics. Real-case simulations are conducted for the squall line case 20 May 2011 from the MC3E field campaign. Results from the piggybacking approach show substantially different responses of the microphysics schemes to the same dynamical fields. Although the interactive microphysics-dynamics simulations buffer some differences compared with those from the piggyback runs, large differences still exist and are mainly contributed by ice microphysical processes parameterizations. The presentation will include in-depth analyses of the major microphysical processes for the squall line case, the significance of the feedback of the processes to dynamics, and how those results differ in different cloud microphysics schemes.

  14. Indian Summer Monsoon Drought 2009: Role of Aerosol and Cloud Microphysics

    SciTech Connect

    Hazra, Anupam; Taraphdar, Sourav; Halder, Madhuparna; Pokhrel, S.; Chaudhari, H. S.; Salunke, K.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Rao, S. A.

    2013-07-01

    Cloud dynamics played a fundamental role in defining Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during drought in 2009. The anomalously negative precipitation was consistent with cloud properties. Although, aerosols inhibited the growth of cloud effective radius in the background of sparse water vapor, their role is secondary. The primary role, however, is played by the interactive feedback between cloud microphysics and dynamics owing to reduced efficient cloud droplet growth, lesser latent heating release and shortage of water content. Cloud microphysical processes were instrumental for the occurrence of ISM drought 2009.

  15. Parameterizations of the Vertical Variability of Tropical Cirrus Cloud Microphysical and Optical Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Twohy, Cynthia; Heymsfield, Andrew; Gerber, Hermann

    2005-01-01

    Our multi-investigator effort was targeted at the following areas of interest to CRYSTAL-FACE: (1) the water budgets of anvils, (2) parameterizations of the particle size distributions and related microphysical and optical properties (3) characterizations of the primary ice particle habits, (4) the relationship of the optical properties to the microphysics and particle habits, and (5) investigation of the ice-nuclei types and mechanisms in anvil cirrus. Dr. Twohy's effort focused on (l), (2), and (5), with the measurement and analysis of ice water content and cirrus residual nuclei using the counterflow virtual impactor (CVI).

  16. Microphysical Timescales in Clouds and their Application in Cloud-Resolving Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne

    2007-01-01

    Independent prognostic variables in cloud-resolving modeling are chosen on the basis of the analysis of microphysical timescales in clouds versus a time step for numerical integration. Two of them are the moist entropy and the total mixing ratio of airborne water with no contributions from precipitating particles. As a result, temperature can be diagnosed easily from those prognostic variables, and cloud microphysics be separated (or modularized) from moist thermodynamics. Numerical comparison experiments show that those prognostic variables can work well while a large time step (e.g., 10 s) is used for numerical integration.

  17. An Investigation of the Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOx Production using DC3 Observations and the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carey, Lawrence; Koshak, William; Peterson, Harold; Matthee, Retha; Bain, Lamont

    2013-01-01

    The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TM) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell

  18. An Investigation of the Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOX Production using DC3 Observations and the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carey, Lawrence; Koshak, William; Peterson, Harold; Matthee, Retha; Bain, Lamont

    2013-01-01

    The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell

  19. An Investigation of the Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOX Production using DC3 Observations and the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carey, L. D.; Koshak, W. J.; Peterson, H. S.; Matthee, R.; Bain, A. L.

    2013-12-01

    The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOX). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOX production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOX production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOX production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOX are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell

  20. Impact of cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization on simulation of heavy rainfall event during 7-9 October 2007 over Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahbub Alam, M.

    2014-03-01

    In the present study, the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) version 3.2.1 has been used to simulate the heavy rainfall event that occurred between 7 and 9 October 2007 in the southern part of Bangladesh. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW version) modelling system with six different microphysics (MP) schemes and two different cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes in a nested configuration was chosen for simulating the event. The model domains consist of outer and inner domains having 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution, respectively with 28 vertical sigma levels. The impacts of cloud microphysical processes by means of precipitation, wind and reflectivity, kinematic and thermodynamic characteristics of the event have been studied. Sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather event. NCEP FNL data were used for the initial and boundary condition. The model ran for 72 h using initial data at 0000 UTC of 7 October 2007. The simulated rainfall shows that WSM6-KF combination gives better results for all combinations and after that Lin-KF combination. WSM3-KF has simulated, less area average rainfall out of all MP schemes that were coupled with KF scheme. The sharp peak of relative humidity up to 300 hPa has been simulated along the vertical line where maximum updraft has been found for all MPs coupled with KF and BMJ schemes. The simulated rain water and cloud water mixing ratio were maximum at the position where the vertical velocity and reflectivity has also been maximum. The production of rain water mixing ratio depends on MP schemes as well as CP schemes. Rainfall depends on rain water mixing ratio between 950 and 500 hPa. Rain water mixing ratio above 500 hPa level has no effect on surface rain.

  1. Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bin; Lee, June-Yi; Kang, In-Sik; Shukla, J.; Park, C.-K.; Kumar, A.; Schemm, J.; Cocke, S.; Kug, J.-S.; Luo, J.-J.; Zhou, T.; Wang, B.; Fu, X.; Yun, W.-T.; Alves, O.; Jin, E. K.; Kinter, J.; Kirtman, B.; Krishnamurti, T.; Lau, N. C.; Lau, W.; Liu, P.; Pegion, P.; Rosati, T.; Schubert, S.; Stern, W.; Suarez, M.; Yamagata, T.

    2009-07-01

    We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980-2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981-2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface

  2. Improved NASA-ANOPP Noise Prediction Computer Code for Advanced Subsonic Propulsion Systems. Volume 2; Fan Suppression Model Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kontos, Karen B.; Kraft, Robert E.; Gliebe, Philip R.

    1996-01-01

    The Aircraft Noise Predication Program (ANOPP) is an industry-wide tool used to predict turbofan engine flyover noise in system noise optimization studies. Its goal is to provide the best currently available methods for source noise prediction. As part of a program to improve the Heidmann fan noise model, models for fan inlet and fan exhaust noise suppression estimation that are based on simple engine and acoustic geometry inputs have been developed. The models can be used to predict sound power level suppression and sound pressure level suppression at a position specified relative to the engine inlet.

  3. Comparison of five models for end-stage liver disease in predicting the survival rate of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Hong, Ying-Fen; Chen, Zhan-Hong; Ma, Xiao-Kun; Li, Xing; Wu, Dong-Hao; Chen, Jie; Dong, Min; Wei, Li; Wang, Tian-Tian; Ruan, Dan-Yun; Lin, Ze-Xiao; Wen, Jing-Yun; Lin, Qu; Jia, Chang-Chang; Wu, Xiang-Yuan

    2016-04-01

    Prognosis of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is under expectation. Life expectancy more than 3 months is one inclusion criteria for molecular targeted drugs in clinical trials. The main purpose of this research is to compare Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and four MELD-based prognostic models in predicting the survival rate of advanced HCC patients. One hundred eighty-three patients with advanced HCC who were not amendable to standard anti-tumor therapy were retrospectively analyzed. Data were collected to classify patients according to MELD, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with the incorporation of serum sodium (MELD-NA), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to ascites and sodium (MELD-AS), integrated Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (iMELD), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to sodium (MESO) scores at diagnosis. 1-, 3-, and 6-month survivals were the end points used in the analysis. When predicting 1-month survival, MELD-AS, MELD, and MESO were the top 3 ranking staging systems. When predicting 3-month survival, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of MELD-AS is significantly higher than that of the other models (P < 0.05). When predicting 6-month survival, AUCs of MELD-AS and MELD-NA are significantly higher than those of the other models (P < 0.05). Cutoff point of MELD-AS is 23.11 with 40.5 % sensitivity and 93.8 % specificity at 1 month, 9.5 with 76.9 % sensitivity and 59.5 % specificity at 3 months, and 18.5 with 27.0 % sensitivity and 89.1 % specificity at 6 months. MELD-based scores of death group are significantly higher than those of survivors within 1 and 3 months (P < 0.001). Independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate analysis included persistent ascites, serum sodium, and thrombosis. MELD-AS is the best model in the prediction of short and intermediate survival among the five models for end-stage liver disease analyzed for Chinese advanced HCC patients

  4. Advanced prediction technique for the low speed aerodynamics of V/STOL aircraft. Volume 1: Technical discussion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beatty, T. D.; Worthey, M. K.

    1984-01-01

    The V/STOL Aircraft Propulsive Effects (VAPE) computerized prediction method is evaluated. The program analyzes viscous effects, various jet, inlet, and Short TakeOff and Landing (STOL) models, and examines the aerodynamic configurations of V/STOL aircraft.

  5. An Advanced Analytical Chemistry Experiment Using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry, MATLAB, and Chemometrics to Predict Biodiesel Blend Percent Composition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pierce, Karisa M.; Schale, Stephen P.; Le, Trang M.; Larson, Joel C.

    2011-01-01

    We present a laboratory experiment for an advanced analytical chemistry course where we first focus on the chemometric technique partial least-squares (PLS) analysis applied to one-dimensional (1D) total-ion-current gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-TIC) separations of biodiesel blends. Then, we focus on n-way PLS (n-PLS) applied to…

  6. The impact of single- and multi-moment microphysics on numerical simulations of supercells and tornadoes of the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma Tornado outbreak

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dawson, Daniel Thomas, II

    Accurate parameterization of cloud and precipitation microphysical processes is critically important in simulation and prediction of severe convective storms, including supercell storms and their associated circulations. The 3 May 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak was characterized by several discrete tornadic supercells in relatively close spatial and temporal proximity, which in general displayed relatively weak and small cold pools. In this work, a sophisticated multi-moment bulk microphysics parameterization scheme capable of predicting up to three moments of the drop or particle size distribution (PSD) for several liquid and ice hydrometeor species is evaluated and compared with traditional single-moment schemes through numerical simulations of the 3 May 1999 event. First, idealized simulations of this outbreak are conducted at horizontal grid spacings from 1 km down to 250 m, using a sounding extracted from a real-data simulation at 3 km grid spacing. The impacts of microphysics on cold pool strength and structure and on the overall reflectivity structure of the simulated storms are analyzed. It is shown through microphysics budget and trajectory analyses within the low level downdraft regions that the multi-moment scheme has several important advantages which lead to a much more realistic weaker and smaller cold pool and better reflectivity structure particularly in the forward flank region of the simulated supercells. Specifically, the improved treatment of evaporation and melting processes and their effects on the predicted rain and hail PSDs by the multi-moment scheme helps to control the cold bias often found in simulations using typical single-moment schemes. The multi-moment results are more consistent with observed thermodynamic conditions within the cold pools of the discrete supercells of the 3 May 1999 outbreak. Real-data simulations of this event down to 100 m horizontal resolution are performed, with an emphasis on the prediction of the Moore

  7. Impacts of cloud microphysics on trade wind cumulus: which cloud microphysics processes contribute to the diversity in a large eddy simulation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, Yousuke; Nishizawa, Seiya; Yashiro, Hisashi; Miyamoto, Yoshiaki; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki; Tomita, Hirofumi

    2015-12-01

    This study investigated the impact of several cloud microphysical schemes on the trade wind cumulus in the large eddy simulation model. To highlight the differences due to the cloud microphysical component, we developed a fully compressible large eddy simulation model, which excluded the implicit scheme and approximations as much as possible. The three microphysical schemes, the one-moment bulk, two-moment bulk, and spectral bin schemes were used for sensitivity experiments in which the other components were fixed. Our new large eddy simulation model using a spectral bin scheme successfully reproduced trade wind cumuli, and reliable model performance was confirmed. Results of the sensitivity experiments indicated that precipitation simulated by the one-moment bulk scheme started earlier, and its total amount was larger than that of the other models. By contrast, precipitation simulated by the two-moment scheme started late, and its total amount was small. These results support those of a previous study. The analyses revealed that the expression of two processes, (1) the generation of cloud particles and (2) the conversion from small droplets to raindrops, were crucial to the results. The fast conversion from cloud to rain and the large amount of newly generated cloud particles at the cloud base led to evaporative cooling and subsequent stabilization in the sub-cloud layer. The latent heat released at higher layers by the condensation of cloud particles resulted in the development of the boundary layer top height.

  8. Predictive potential role of GSTs gene polymorphisms in the treatment outcome of advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Liu, Kaixiong; Lin, Qichang; Ding, Haibo; Jin, Yongxu; Chen, Gongping

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate the possible association between GSTP1, GSTM1, and GSTT1 polymorphisms and treatment outcome of advanced NSCLC. Between October 2009 and October 2011, a total of 308 patients of NSCLC on stage IIIA, IIIB or IV, treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy were included. Polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism was used to genotype the GSTP1 and GSTM1, and GSTT1 polymorphisms. We found that the IIe/Val and Val/Val genotypes of GSTP1 showed more CR+PR to chemotherapy in advanced NSCLC when compared with IIe/IIe genotype, and the Ors (95% CI) were 0.37 (0.18-0.71) and 0.15 (0.07-0.38). The IIe/Val and Val/Val genotypes of GSTP1 were associated with longer overall survival of advanced NSCLC when compared with the IIe/IIe genotype (For IIe/Val vs IIe/IIe, 37.63 ± 2.01 months vs 30.25 ± 2.06 months; for Val/Val vs IIe/IIe, 39.84 ± 3.36 months vs 30.25 ± 2.06 months). In the Cox proportional hazards model, the IIe/Val and Val/Val genotypes significantly decreased risk of death from all causes in patients with advanced NSCLC, and the HRs (95% CIs) were 0.51 (0.28-0.94) and 0.35 (0.16-0.78), respectively. We found that the GSTP1 polymorphisms might affect the clinical outcome of patients with advanced NSCLC, and our results could help us to facilitate therapeutic decision for individualized therapy. PMID:26885019

  9. Intercomparison of four cloud microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the simulation of summer monsoon precipitation in the Langtang Valley, Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orr, Andrew; Couttet, Margaux; Collier, Emily; Immerzeel, Walter

    2016-04-01

    Better understanding of regional-scale precipitation patterns in the Himalayan region, and how these are affecting snow and ice, is critically required to increase our knowledge of the impacts of climate change on glaciers and snowpacks. This study examines how 4 different cloud microphysical schemes (Thompson, Morrison, WRF Single-Moment 5-class (WSM5; which is the WRF default scheme), and WRF Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6)) simulated precipitation in the Langtang Valley, Himalayas during the summer monsoon in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The precipitation is simulated for a ten-day period during July 2012 at high spatial-resolution (1.1 km) so as to simulate the local conditions in great detail. The model results are validated through a comparison with precipitation and radiation measurements made at two observation sites located on the main Langtang Valley floor and the mountain slopes. Analysis of water vapour and hydrometeors from each of the 4 schemes are also investigated to elucidate the main microphysics processes. The results show that the choice of microphysics scheme has a strong influence on precipitation in the Langtang Valley, with the simulated precipitation exhibiting large inter-model differences and significantly different day-to-day variability compared to measurements. The inter-model differences in simulated radiation were less marked, although under cloudy conditions all schemes demonstrated a significant positive bias in incoming radiation. However, overall the Morrison scheme showed the best agreement in terms of both precipitation and radiation over the ten-day period, while the poorest performing scheme is WDM6. Analysis of microphysics outputs suggested that 'cold-rain processes' is a key precipitation formation mechanism. The good performance of the Morrison scheme is consistent with its double-moment prediction of every ice-phase hydrometeor, which is ideally suited to represent this mechanism. By contrast, WDM6 is

  10. New utility of an old marker: serum low-density lipoprotein predicts histopathological response of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in locally advanced gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Ji-Chun; Guo, Ju-Feng; Teng, Rong-Yue; Wang, Qin-Chuan; Wang, Ji; Wei, Qun; Li, Zi-Duo; Shen, Jian-Guo; Wang, Lin-Bo

    2016-01-01

    Background Although the correlation between metabolic abnormality and gastric cancer has been extensively investigated, the question of whether metabolic parameters might influence the efficacy of chemotherapy in locally advanced gastric cancer is still unanswered. In our present study, we investigated the relationship between serum fasting glucose, lipid levels, and histopathological response of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in locally advanced gastric cancers. Patients and methods A total of 128 patients were identified from a prospectively maintained database of patients with locally advanced gastric cancer who received NAC between July 2004 and December 2012. Histopathological response after NAC was analyzed according to Becker’s tumor-regression grade. Univariate analyses and multivariable regression analyses were performed to determine the correlation between tumor size, differentiation, fasting glucose, lipid levels, and tumor histopathological response after NAC. Results Univariate analysis revealed that low-density lipoprotein level and total cholesterol, as well as tumor size and differentiation, correlated significantly with histopathological response. Low-density lipoprotein levels and tumor size were found to be independent predictors for histopathological response, according to multivariable regression analyses. Conclusion In this observational, hypothesis-generating study, serum low-density lipoprotein measurement was found to be useful in predicting chemosensitivity to locally advanced gastric cancer patients undergoing NAC. Incorporation of serum low-density lipoprotein levels into individualized treatment protocols could be considered in clinical practice. PMID:27574445

  11. Development of a numerical scheme to predict geomagnetic storms after intense solar events and geomagnetic activity 27 days in advance. Final report, 6 Aug 86-16 Nov 90

    SciTech Connect

    Akasofu, S.I.; Lee, L.H.

    1991-02-01

    The modern geomagnetic storm prediction scheme should be based on a numerical simulation method, rather than on a statistical result. Furthermore, the scheme should be able to predict the geomagnetic storm indices, such as the Dst and AE indices, as a function of time. By recognizing that geomagnetic storms are powered by the solar wind-magnetosphere generator and that its power is given in terms of the solar wind speed, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and polar angle, the authors have made a major advance in predicting both flare-induced storms and recurrent storms. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the prediction scheme can be calibrated using the interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observation, when the solar disturbance advances about half-way to the earth. It is shown, however, that we are still far from a reliable prediction scheme. The prediction of the IMF polar angle requires future advance in understanding characteristics of magnetic clouds.

  12. Optical and microphysical properties of atmospheric aerosols in Moldova

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aculinin, Alexandr; Smicov, Vladimir

    2010-05-01

    Measurements of aerosol properties in Kishinev, Moldova are being carried out within the framework of the international AERONET program managed by NASA/GSFC since 1999. Direct solar and sky diffuse radiances are measured by using of sunphotometer Cimel-318. Aerosol optical properties are retrieved from measured radiances by using of smart computational procedures developed by the AERONET's team. The instrument is situated at the ground-based solar radiation monitoring station giving the opportunity to make simultaneous spectral (win sunphotometer) and broadband (with the set of sensors from radiometric complex) solar radiation. Detailed description of the station and investigations in progress can be found at the http://arg.phys.asm.md. Ground station is placed in an urban environment of Kishinev city (47.00N; 28.56E; 205 m a.s.l). Summary of aerosol optical and microphysical properties retrieved from direct solar and diffuse sky radiance observations at Moldova site from September 1999 to June 2009 are presented below. Number of measurements (total): 1695 Number of measurements (for ?o, n, k): 223 Range of aerosol optical depth (AOD) @440 nm: 0.03 < ?(440) < 2.30, < ?(440)>=0.25 Range of Ångström parameter < α440_870 >: 0.14 < α < 2.28 Asymmetry factor (440/670/870/1020): 0.70/0.63/0.59/0.58 ±0.04 Refraction (n) and absorption (k) indices@440 nm: 1.41 ± 0.06; 0.009 ± 0.005 Single scattering albedo < ?o >(440/670/870/1020): 0.93/0.92/0.90/0.89 ±0.04 Parameters of volume particle size distribution function: (fine mode) volume median radius r v,f , μm: 0.17 ± 0.06 particle volume concentration Cv,f, μm3/μm2: 0.04 ± 0.03 (coarse mode) volume median radius rv,c , μm: 3.08 ± 0.64 particle volume concentration Cv,c, μm3/μm2: 0.03 ± 0.03 Climatic norms of AOD@500 nm and Ångström parameter < α440_870 > at the site of observation are equal to 0.21 ± 0.06 and 1.45 ± 0.14, respectively. The aerosol type in Moldova may be considered as 'urban

  13. Nomogram basing pre-treatment parameters predicting early response for locally advanced rectal cancer with neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone: a subgroup efficacy analysis of FOWARC study

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Huabin; Lan, Ping; Wang, Lei; Huang, Meijin; Kang, Liang; Wu, Xiaojian; Wang, Hui; Ling, Jiayu; Xiao, Jian; Wang, Jianping; Deng, Yanhong

    2016-01-01

    Objective To develop an accurate model with pre-treatment parameters to predict tumor regression and down-staging in locally advanced rectal cancer patients, basing the cohort of preoperative chemotherapy alone in FOWARC study. Patients and Methods From Jan 2011 to Feb 2015, complete data was available for 137 out of 165 patients who received preoperative chemotherapy alone. All pre-treatment clinical parameters were collected. Tumor regression grade (TRG) 0-1 was defined as good regression, and pathological TNM stage (ypTNM) 0-I after neoadjuvant treatment was defined as good down-staging. Nomogram was established to predict tumor regression and down-staging. The predictive performance of the model was assessed with concordance index and calibration plots. Results Of the 137 patients, 10 had TRG 0 (complete regression); 32 patients, TRG 1; and 95 patients, TRG 2 and 3 (poor regression); 56 (40.9%) patients were classified as good down-staging with ypTNM stage 0-I. The predictive nomograms were developed to predict the probability of TRG 0-1 and good down-staging with a C-index of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.604-0.797) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.681-0.844). Calibration plots showed good statistical performance on internal validation. Predictive factors in the models included tumor length, tumor circumferential extent, age, and ApoA1. Conclusions The model based on available clinical parameters could accurately predict early efficacy with neoadjuvant mFOLFOX6 chemotherapy alone, which might help in patient selection for optimized treatment. PMID:26646794

  14. The 20-22 January 2007 Snow Events over Canada: Microphysical Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao. W.K.; Shi, J.J.; Matsui, T.; Hao, A.; Lang, S.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Skofronick-Jackson, G.; Petersen, W.; Cifelli, R.; Rutledge, S.

    2009-01-01

    One of the grand challenges of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is to improve precipitation measurements in mid- and high-latitudes during cold seasons through the use of high-frequency passive microwave radiometry. Toward this end, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard microphysics scheme is coupled with a Satellite Data Simulation Unit (WRF-SDSU) that has been developed to facilitate over-land snowfall retrieval algorithms by providing a virtual cloud library and microwave brightness temperature (Tb) measurements consistent with the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI). This study tested the Goddard cloud microphysics scheme in WRF for snowstorm events (January 20-22, 2007) that took place over the Canadian CloudSAT/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) ground site (Centre for Atmospheric Research Experiments - CARE) in Ontario, Canada. In this paper, the performance of the Goddard cloud microphysics scheme both with 2ice (ice and snow) and 3ice (ice, snow and graupel) as well as other WRF microphysics schemes will be presented. The results are compared with data from the Environment Canada (EC) King Radar, an operational C-band radar located near the CARE site. In addition, the WRF model output is used to drive the Goddard SDSU to calculate radiances and backscattering signals consistent with direct satellite observations for evaluating the model results.

  15. Optimizing Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) Thompson cloud microphysics on Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mielikainen, Jarno; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen

    2014-05-01

    The Thompson cloud microphysics scheme is a sophisticated cloud microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The scheme is very suitable for massively parallel computation as there are no interactions among horizontal grid points. Compared to the earlier microphysics schemes, the Thompson scheme incorporates a large number of improvements. Thus, we have optimized the speed of this important part of WRF. Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) ushers in a new era of supercomputing speed, performance, and compatibility. It allows the developers to run code at trillions of calculations per second using the familiar programming model. In this paper, we present our results of optimizing the Thompson microphysics scheme on Intel Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) hardware. The Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor is the first product based on Intel MIC architecture, and it consists of up to 61 cores connected by a high performance on-die bidirectional interconnect. The coprocessor supports all important Intel development tools. Thus, the development environment is familiar one to a vast number of CPU developers. Although, getting a maximum performance out of MICs will require using some novel optimization techniques. Those optimization techniques are discusses in this paper. The results show that the optimization improved MIC performance by 3.4x. Furthermore, the optimized MIC code is 7.0x faster than the optimized multi-threaded code on the four CPU cores of a single socket Intel Xeon E5-2603 running at 1.8 GHz.

  16. Hail formation and growth in a 3D cloud model with hail-bin microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Xueliang; Huang, Meiyuan

    The hailstorm of 22 July 1976 in Colorado was studied using a three-dimensional compressible nonhydrostatic cloud model with hail-bin microphysics and parameterized bulk hail microphysics. Results show that observed storm features, such as long-lasting, transient weak-echo vaults and a pronounced forward overhang structure can be better simulated in the model with hail-bin microphysics. The role of a feeder updraft in forming and transferring graupel into a main updraft is analyzed using three-dimensional information on hail and graupel locations and corresponding wind field data from the simulations with hail-bin microphysics. It is found that the formation of a feeder cell with weaker updraft along the side of a main cell has two important roles in forming of hail in the simulated multicellular hailstorm. One is to efficiently transfer graupel descended along the edge of the main updraft or from a massive forward overhang region into the main updraft by preventing the rapid fall of graupel to the surface, and by lifting the low-level inflow by which graupel can be advected into the main updraft. Second, to evolve as a daughter cell in which hail from the decaying old cell can continue their growth. Based on the study, the primary role of a feeder cell is to transfer hail embryos originally formed in a main cell to reenter the main cell rather than to generate initial hail embryos as proposed by previous studies.

  17. Microphysics Parameterization in Convection and its Effects on Cloud Simulation in the NCAR CAM5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, G. J.; Song, X.

    2010-12-01

    Microphysical processes in convection are important to convection-cloud-climate interactions and atmospheric hydrological cycle. They are also essential to understanding aerosol-cloud interaction. However, their parameterization in GCMs is crude. As part of an effort to improve the convection parameterization scheme for the NCAR CAM using observations, we incorporate a cloud microphysics parameterization into the Zhang-McFarlane convection scheme. The scheme is then evaluated against observations of cloud ice and water from the TWP-ICE experiment and other sources using the NCAR SCAM. It is found that this physically-based treatment of convective microphysics yields more realistic vertical profiles of convective cloud ice and liquid water contents. Cloud water and ice budgets are calculated to estimate the role of cloud water and ice detrainment from convection as water and ice sources for large-scale clouds. The new microphysics treatment is further implemented into CAM5 to test its effect on GCM simulations of clouds. Results will be presented at the meeting, and the implications on the simulation of hydrological cycle will be discussed.

  18. Evaluation of Retrieval Algorithms for Ice Microphysics Using CALIPSO/CloudSat and Earthcare

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okamoto, Hajime; Sato, Kaori; Hagihara, Yuichiro; Ishimoto, Hiroshi; Borovoi, Anatoli; Konoshonkin, Alexander; Kustova, Natalia

    2016-06-01

    We developed lidar-radar algorithms that can be applied to Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) lidar and CloudSat data to retrieve ice microphysics. The algorithms were the extended version of previously reported algorithm [1] and can treat both of nadir pointing of CALIPSO lidar period and 3°-off-nadir pointing one. We used the scattering data bank produced by the physical optics methods [2] and created lidar look-up tables of quasi-horizontally oriented ice plates (Q2D-plate) for nadir- and off-nadir lidar pointing periods. Then LUTs were implemented in the ice retrieval algorithms. We performed several sensitivity studies to evaluate uncertainties in the retrieved ice microphysics due to ice particle orientation and shape. It was found that the implementation of orientation of horizontally oriented ice plate model in the algorithm drastically improved the retrieval results in both for nadir- and off-nadir lidar pointing periods. Differences in the retrieved microphysics between only randomly oriented ice model (3D-ice) and mixture of 3D-ice and Q2Dplate model were large especially in off-nadir period, e.g., 100% in effective radius and one order in ice water content, respectively. And differences in the retrieved ice microphysics among different mixture models were smaller than about 50% for effective radius in nadir period.

  19. Microphysical relationships of clouds observed during March 2000 Cloud IOP at SGP Site and important implications

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, C.; Liu, Y.

    2010-03-15

    Cloud droplet size distributions ---- hence the key microphysical quantities of climate importance (e.g., the total droplet concentration, liquid water content, relative dispersion, mean-volume radius, radar reflectivity, and effective radius) are determined by different physical mechanisms such as pre-cloud aerosols, cloud updraft and turbulent entrainment-mixing processes. Therefore, the relationships among these microphysical properties are expected to behave differently in response to aerosols, cloud updrafts and turbulent entrainment-mixing processes. Identifying and quantifying the influences on these microphysical relationships of the various mechanisms is critical for accurately representing cloud microphysics in climate models and for reducing the uncertainty in estimates of aerosol indirect effects. This study first examines the characteristics of the relationships between relative dispersion, droplet concentration, liquid water content, mean-volume radius, effective radius and radar reflectivity calculated from in-situ measurements of cloud droplet size distributions collected during the March 2000 Cloud IOP at the SGP site. The relationships are further analyzed to dissect the effects from different mechanisms/factors (aerosols, updraft, and different turbulent entrainment-mixing processes). Potential applications to improve radar retrievals of cloud properties will be explored as well.

  20. Examining the Sensitivity of Regional Scale Cloud Properties to Convective Microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Storer, R. L.; Zhang, G. J.; Song, X.

    2014-12-01

    A two-moment microphysics scheme for deep convection was implemented in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) by Song et al. (2012). The new scheme improved hydrometeor profiles in deep convective clouds and increased deep convective detrainment, reducing the negative biases in low and mid-level cloud fraction and liquid water path compared to observations. Here, we examine in more detail the impacts of this improved microphysical representation on regional scale water and radiation budgets. As the primary source of cloud water for stratus clouds is detrainment from deep and shallow convection, the enhanced convective activity leads to larger stratus cloud fractions, higher cloud water content, and more stratiform precipitation in all oceanic regions examined, particularly in the subtropics. This can be seen also in increased values of net cloud radiative forcing. Over land regions, cloud amounts are reduced, leading to weaker cloud forcing and increased OLR. The magnitude and, occasionally, the sign of the changes in cloud properties can differ if scaled by the precipitation produced in a region, and much of the changes occur in the mixed phase region of the atmosphere. This indicates that the complex interactions between liquid and ice phase microphysics can effect changes in regional scale circulations. We will present details of the large scale water and radiation budgets and the microphysical budgets of cloud liquid and ice for several regions. Results will be compared to cloud resolving model simulations.

  1. The Dependence on Grid Resolution of Numerically Simulated Convective Cloud Systems Using Ice Microphysics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braun, Scott A.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Ferrier, Bradley S.

    1999-01-01

    Mesoscale research and forecast models are increasingly being used at horizontal resolutions of 1-8 km to simulate a variety of precipitating systems. When the model is used to simulate convective systems, it is uncertain to what extent the dynamics and microphysics of convective updrafts can be resolved with grids larger than 1 km. In this study, two- and three-dimensional versions of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model are used to determine the impact of horizontal grid resolution on the behavior of the simulated storms and on the characteristics of the cloud microphysical fields. It will be shown that as resolution decreases from about 1 km to greater than 3 km, there is a fairly rapid degradation of the storm structure in the form of reduced convective mass fluxes, updraft tilts, and cloud microphysics. A high-resolution simulation of hurricane outer rainbands using the MM5 mesoscale model shows also that there can be a substantial modification of the key microphysical processes that contribute to rainfall as a result of reducing the horizontal resolution.

  2. Predicting the Inflow Distortion Tone Noise of the NASA Glenn Advanced Noise Control Fan with a Combined Quadrupole-Dipole Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koch, L. Danielle

    2012-01-01

    A combined quadrupole-dipole model of fan inflow distortion tone noise has been extended to calculate tone sound power levels generated by obstructions arranged in circumferentially asymmetric locations upstream of a rotor. Trends in calculated sound power level agreed well with measurements from tests conducted in 2007 in the NASA Glenn Advanced Noise Control Fan. Calculated values of sound power levels radiated upstream were demonstrated to be sensitive to the accuracy of the modeled wakes from the cylindrical rods that were placed upstream of the fan to distort the inflow. Results indicate a continued need to obtain accurate aerodynamic predictions and measurements at the fan inlet plane as engineers work towards developing fan inflow distortion tone noise prediction tools.

  3. New, Improved Goddard Bulk-Microphysical Schemes for Studying Precipitation Processes in WRF

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2007-01-01

    An improved bulk microphysical parameterization is implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting ()VRF) model. This bulk microphysical scheme has three different options, 2ICE (cloud ice & snow), 3ICE-graupel (cloud ice, snow & graupel) and 3ICE-hail (cloud ice, snow & hail). High-resolution model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of microphysical schemes on two different weather events (a midlatitude linear convective system and an Atlantic hurricane). The results suggest that microphysics has a major impact on the organization and precipitation processes associated with a summer midlatitude convective line system. The Goddard 3ICE scheme with a cloud ice-snow-hail configuration agreed better with observations in terms of rainfall intensity and a narrow convective line than did simulations with a cloud ice-snow-graupel or cloud ice-snow (i.e., 2ICE) configuration. This is because the 3ICE-hail scheme includes dense ice precipitating (hail) particle with very fast fall speed (over 10 in For an Atlantic hurricane case, the Goddard microphysical schemes had no significant impact on the track forecast but did affect the intensity slightly. The improved Goddard schemes are also compared with WRF's three other 3ICE bulk microphysical schemes: WSM6, Purdue-Lin and Thompson. For the summer midlatitude convective line system, all of the schemes resulted in simulated precipitation events that were elongated in the southwest-northeast direction in qualitative agreement with the observed feature. However, the Goddard 3ICE scheme with the hail option and the Thompson scheme agree better with observations in terms of rainfall intensity, expect that the Goddard scheme simulated more heavy rainfall (over 48 mm/h). For the Atlantic hurricane case, none of the schemes had a significant impact on the track forecast; however, the simulated intensity using the Purdue-Lin scheme was much stronger than the other schemes. The vertical distributions of model

  4. Feeling the Pulse of the Stratosphere: An Emerging Opportunity for Predicting Continental-Scale Cold Air Outbreaks One Month in Advance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Ming

    2016-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as cold air outbreaks (CAOs) pose great threats to human life and socioeconomic well-being of the modern society. In the past, our capability to predict their occurrences is constrained by the 2-week predictability limit for weather. We demonstrate here for the first time that a rapid increase of air mass transported into the polar stratosphere, referred to as "the pulse of the stratosphere (PULSE)", can often be predicted with a useful skill 4-6 weeks in advance by operational forecast models. We further show that the probability of the occurrence of continental-scale CAOs in mid-latitudes increases substantially above the normal condition within a short time period from one week before to 1‑2 weeks after the peak day of a PULSE event. In particular, we reveal that the three massive CAOs over North America in January and February of 2014 were preceded by three episodes of extreme mass transport into the polar stratosphere with peak intensities reaching a trillion tons per day, twice of that on an average winter day. Therefore, our capability to predict the PULSEs with operational forecast models, in conjunction with its linkage to continental-scale CAOs, opens up a new opportunity for 30‑day forecasts of continental-scale CAOs, such as those occurring over North America in the 2013-14 winter. A real time forecast experiment inaugurated in the winter of 2014-15 has given support to the idea that it is feasible to forecast CAOs one month in advance.

  5. LIMA (v1.0): A quasi two-moment microphysical scheme driven by a multimodal population of cloud condensation and ice freezing nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vié, B.; Pinty, J.-P.; Berthet, S.; Leriche, M.

    2016-02-01

    The paper describes the LIMA (Liquid Ice Multiple Aerosols) quasi two-moment microphysical scheme, which relies on the prognostic evolution of an aerosol population, and the careful description of the nucleating properties that enable cloud droplets and pristine ice crystals to form from aerosols. Several modes of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice freezing nuclei (IFN) are considered individually. A special class of partially soluble IFN is also introduced. These "aged" IFN act first as CCN and then as IFN by immersion nucleation at low temperatures. All the CCN modes are in competition with each other, as expressed by the single equation of maximum supersaturation. The IFN are insoluble aerosols that nucleate ice in several ways (condensation, deposition and immersion freezing) assuming the singular hypothesis. The scheme also includes the homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets, the Hallett-Mossop ice multiplication process and the freezing of haze at very low temperatures. LIMA assumes that water vapour is in thermodynamic equilibrium with the population of cloud droplets (adjustment to saturation in warm clouds). In ice clouds, the prediction of the number concentration of the pristine ice crystals is used to compute explicit deposition and sublimation rates (leading to free under/supersaturation over ice). The autoconversion, accretion and self-collection processes shape the raindrop spectra. The initiation of the large crystals and aggregates category is the result of the depositional growth of large crystals beyond a critical size. Aggregation and riming are computed explicitly. Heavily rimed crystals (graupel) can experience a dry or wet growth mode. An advanced version of the scheme includes a separate hail category of particles forming and growing exclusively in the wet growth mode. The sedimentation of all particle types is included. The LIMA scheme is inserted into the Meso-NH cloud-resolving mesoscale model. The flexibility of LIMA is illustrated

  6. LIMA (v1.0): a two-moment microphysical scheme driven by a multimodal population of cloud condensation and ice freezing nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vié, B.; Pinty, J.-P.; Berthet, S.; Leriche, M.

    2015-09-01

    The paper describes the 2-moment microphysical scheme LIMA (Liquid Ice Multiple Aerosols), which relies on the prognostic evolution of a three-dimensional (3-D) aerosol population, and the careful description of the nucleating properties that enable cloud droplets and pristine ice crystals to form. LIMA uses the aerosol nucleating properties to form cloud droplets and pristine ice crystals. Several modes of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) and Ice Freezing Nuclei (IFN) are considered individually. A special class of partially soluble IFN is also introduced. These "aged" IFN act first as CCN and then as IFN by immersion nucleation at low temperatures. All the CCN modes are in competition with each other, as expressed by the single equation of maximum supersaturation. The IFN are insoluble aerosols that nucleate ice in several ways (condensation, deposition and immersion freezing) assuming the singular hypothesis. The scheme also includes the homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets, the Hallett-Mossop ice multiplication process and the freezing of haze at very low temperature. LIMA assumes that water vapour is in thermodynamic equilibrium with the population of cloud droplets (adjustment to saturation in warm clouds). In ice clouds, the prediction of the number concentration of the pristine ice crystals is used to compute explicit deposition and sublimation rates (leading to free under/supersaturation over ice). The formation of hydrometeors is standard. The autoconversion, accretion and self-collection processes shape the raindrop spectra. The initiation of the large crystals and aggregates category is the result of the depositional growth of large crystals beyond a critical size. Aggregation and riming are computed explicitly. Heavily rimed crystals (graupel) can experience a dry or wet growth mode. An advanced version of the scheme includes a separate hail category of particles forming and growing exclusively in the wet growth mode. The sedimentation of all particle

  7. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 1: Theoretical development and application to yearly predictions for selected cities in the United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1986-01-01

    A rain attenuation prediction model is described for use in calculating satellite communication link availability for any specific location in the world that is characterized by an extended record of rainfall. Such a formalism is necessary for the accurate assessment of such availability predictions in the case of the small user-terminal concept of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The model employs the theory of extreme value statistics to generate the necessary statistical rainrate parameters from rain data in the form compiled by the National Weather Service. These location dependent rain statistics are then applied to a rain attenuation model to obtain a yearly prediction of the occurrence of attenuation on any satellite link at that location. The predictions of this model are compared to those of the Crane Two-Component Rain Model and some empirical data and found to be very good. The model is then used to calculate rain attenuation statistics at 59 locations in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) for the 20 GHz downlinks and 30 GHz uplinks of the proposed ACTS system. The flexibility of this modeling formalism is such that it allows a complete and unified treatment of the temporal aspects of rain attenuation that leads to the design of an optimum stochastic power control algorithm, the purpose of which is to efficiently counter such rain fades on a satellite link.

  8. A Comparison of Cloud Microphysical and Optical Properties during TOGA-COARE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strawa, A. W.; Pueschel, R. F.; Pilewskie, P.; Valero, F. P. J.; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    The impact of cirrus clouds on climate is an issue of research interest currently. Whether cirrus clouds heat or cool the Earth-atmosphere system depends on the cloud shortwave albedo and infrared reflectance and absorptance. These in turn are determined by the size distribution, phase, and composition of particles in the clouds. The TOGA-COARE campaign presented an excellent opportunity to study cirrus clouds and their influence on climate. In this campaign, a microphysics instrument package was flown aboard the DC-8 aircraft at medium altitudes in cirrus clouds. This package included a 2D Greyscale Cloud Particle Probe, a Forward Scattering Spectrometer Aerosol Probe, and an ice crystal replicator. At the same time the ER-2 equipped with a radiation measurement system flew coordinated flight tracks above the DC-8 at very high altitude. The radiation measurement made were short and long wave fluxes, as well as narrowband fluxes, both upwelling and downwelling. In addition LIDAR data is available. The existence of these data sets allows for a the comparison of radiation measurement with microphysical measurements. For example, the optical depth and effective radius retrieved from the ER-2 radiation measurements can be compared to the microphysical data. Conversely, the optical properties and fluxes produced by the clouds can be calculated from the microphysical measurements and compared to those measured aboard the ER-2. The assumptions required to make these comparisons are discussed. Typical microphysical results show a prevalence of micron-sized particles, in addition to the cloud particles that exceed 100 mm. The large number of small particles or "haze" cause the effective cloud radii to shift to smaller sizes, leading to changes in optical parameters.

  9. Studies of Radiation and Microphysics in Cirrus and Marine Stratocumulus Clouds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1999-01-01

    Two tasks were completed during this period. In the first, we examined the polarization of millimeter-wavelength radar beams scattered by ice crystals. Because of their non-spherical shape and size, ice crystals depolarize the incident polarized radar beam. In principle, this depolarization can be used to identify ice from liquid water, as well as provide some information on size. However, the amount of de-polarization is small, producing only a weak signal at the receiver. Our task was to determine the magnitude of such a signal and decide if our radar would be capable of measuring it under typical cirrus conditions. The theoretical study was carried out by Henrietta Lemke, a visiting graduate student from Germany. She had prior experience using a discrete dipole code to compute scattering depolarization. Dr. Kultegin Aydin of the Penn State Electrical Engineering Department, who is also expert in this area, consulted with us on this project at no cost to the project. Our conclusion was that the depolarization signal is too weak to be usefully measured by our system. Therefore we proceeded no further in this study. The second task involved the study of the effect of stratus microphysics on surface cloud forcing. Manajit Sengupta, a graduate student, and the project PI jointly carried out this task. The study used data culled from over a year of continuous radar and radiometer observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site in Oklahoma. The study compared solar radiation calculations made using constant microphysics with calculations made using a retrieved mean particle size. The results showed that on average the constant microphysics produced the correct forcing when compared with the observed forcing. We conclude, therefore, that there is little impetus on radiation grounds alone to include explicit microphysics in climate models. The question of pollutant particle emission impacts on microphysics remains to be resolved. A manuscript is in

  10. Performance of the Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework with Goddard Ice Microphysical Schemes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chern, Jiun-Dar; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Li, J.-L.; Mohr, Karen I.; Skofronick-Jackson, Gail M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-01-01

    The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has become a new approach for climate modeling. The embedded CRMs make it possible to apply CRM-based cloud microphysics directly within a GCM. However, most such schemes have never been tested in a global environment for long-term climate simulation. The benefits of using an MMF to evaluate rigorously and improve microphysics schemes are here demonstrated. Four one-moment microphysical schemes are implemented into the Goddard MMF and their results validated against three CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud ice products and other satellite data. The new four-class (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) ice scheme produces a better overall spatial distribution of cloud ice amount, total cloud fractions, net radiation, and total cloud radiative forcing than earlier three-class ice schemes, with biases within the observational uncertainties. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to examine the impact of recently upgraded microphysical processes on global hydrometeor distributions. Five processes dominate the global distributions of cloud ice and snow amount in long-term simulations: (1) allowing for ice supersaturation in the saturation adjustment, (2) three additional correction terms in the depositional growth of cloud ice to snow, (3) accounting for cloud ice fall speeds, (4) limiting cloud ice particle size, and (5) new size-mapping schemes for snow and graupel. Despite the cloud microphysics improvements, systematic errors associated with subgrid processes, cyclic lateral boundaries in the embedded CRMs, and momentum transport remain and will require future improvement.

  11. Performance of the Goddard multiscale modeling framework with Goddard ice microphysical schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chern, Jiun-Dar; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Li, J.-L. F.; Mohr, Karen I.; Skofronick-Jackson, Gail M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-03-01

    The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has become a new approach for climate modeling. The embedded CRMs make it possible to apply CRM-based cloud microphysics directly within a GCM. However, most such schemes have never been tested in a global environment for long-term climate simulation. The benefits of using an MMF to evaluate rigorously and improve microphysics schemes are here demonstrated. Four one-moment microphysical schemes are implemented into the Goddard MMF and their results validated against three CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud ice products and other satellite data. The new four-class (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) ice scheme produces a better overall spatial distribution of cloud ice amount, total cloud fractions, net radiation, and total cloud radiative forcing than earlier three-class ice schemes, with biases within the observational uncertainties. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to examine the impact of recently upgraded microphysical processes on global hydrometeor distributions. Five processes dominate the global distributions of cloud ice and snow amount in long-term simulations: (1) allowing for ice supersaturation in the saturation adjustment, (2) three additional correction terms in the depositional growth of cloud ice to snow, (3) accounting for cloud ice fall speeds, (4) limiting cloud ice particle size, and (5) new size-mapping schemes for snow and graupel. Despite the cloud microphysics improvements, systematic errors associated with subgrid processes, cyclic lateral boundaries in the embedded CRMs, and momentum transport remain and will require future improvement.

  12. Impacts of Microphysical Scheme on Convective and Stratiform Characteristics in Two High Precipitation Squall Line Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Di; Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike; Feng, Zhe; Kennedy, Aaron; Mullendore, Gretchen; Gilmore, Matthew; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of snow, graupel, and hail processes on simulated squall lines over the Southern Great Plains in the United States. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate two squall line events in Oklahoma during May 2007, and the simulations are validated against radar and surface observations. Several microphysics schemes are tested in this study, including the WRF 5-Class Microphysics (WSM5), WRF 6-Class Microphysics (WSM6), Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Three Ice (3-ice) with graupel, Goddard Two Ice (2-ice), and Goddard 3-ice hail schemes. Simulated surface precipitation is sensitive to the microphysics scheme when the graupel or hail categories are included. All of the 3-ice schemes overestimate the total precipitation with WSM6 having the largest bias. The 2-ice schemes, without a graupel/hail category, produce less total precipitation than the 3-ice schemes. By applying a radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm, we find that including graupel/hail processes increases the convective areal coverage, precipitation intensity, updraft, and downdraft intensities, and reduces the stratiform areal coverage and precipitation intensity. For vertical structures, simulations have higher reflectivity values distributed aloft than the observed values in both the convective and stratiform regions. Three-ice schemes produce more high reflectivity values in convective regions, while 2-ice schemes produce more high reflectivity values in stratiform regions. In addition, this study has demonstrated that the radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm can reasonably identify WRF-simulated precipitation, wind, and microphysical fields in both convective and stratiform regions.

  13. Impacts of Microphysical Scheme on Convective and Stratiform Characteristics in Two High Precipitation Squall Line Events

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, Di; Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike; Feng, Zhe; Kennedy, Aaron; Mullendore, Gretchen; Gilmore, Matthew; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2013-10-04

    This study investigates the impact of snow, graupel, and hail processes on the simulated squall lines over the Southern Great Plains in the United States. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate two squall line events in May 2007, and the results are validated against radar and surface observations in Oklahoma. Several microphysics schemes are tested in this study, including WRF 5-Class Microphysics Scheme (WSM5), WRF 6-Class Microphysics Scheme (WSM6), Goddard Three Ice scheme (Goddard 3-ice) with graupel, Goddard Two Ice scheme (Goddard 2-ice), and Goddard 3-ice hail scheme. The simulated surface precipitation is sensitive to the microphysics scheme, and especially to whether graupel or hail category is included. All of the three ice (3-ice) schemes overestimated the total precipitation, within which WSM6 has the highest overestimation. Two ice (2-ice) schemes, missing a graupel/hail category, produced less total precipitation than 3-ice schemes. By applying a radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm, we find that by including the graupel/hail processes, there is an increase in areal coverage, precipitation intensity, updraft and downdraft intensity in convective region and a reduction of areal coverage and its precipitation intensity in stratiform region. For vertical structures, all the bulk schemes, especially 2-ice schemes, have the highest reflectivity located at upper levels (~8 km), which is unrealistic compared to observations. In addition, this study shows the radar-based convective/stratiform partitioning algorithm can reasonably identify WRF simulated precipitation, wind and microphysics fields in both convective and stratiform regions.

  14. Performance of the Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework with Goddard Ice Microphysical Schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chern, J. D.; Tao, W. K.; Lang, S. E.; Matsui, T.; Li, J. L. F.; Mohr, K. I.

    2015-12-01

    The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has become a new approach for climate modeling. The embedded CRMs make it possible to apply CRM-based cloud microphysics directly within a GCM. However, most such schemes have never been tested in a global environment for long-term climate simulation. The benefits of using an MMF to evaluate rigorously and improve microphysics schemes are here demonstrated. Four one-moment microphysical schemes are implemented into the Goddard MMF and their results validated against three CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud ice products, CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud fractions, and other satellite data. The new four-class (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) ice scheme produces a better overall spatial distribution of cloud ice amount and total cloud radiative forcing than earlier three-class ice schemes, with biases within the observational uncertainties. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to examine the impact of recently upgraded microphysical processes on global hydrometeor distributions. Five processes dominate the global distributions of cloud ice and snow amount in long-term simulations: (1) allowing for ice supersaturation in the saturation adjustment, (2) three additional correction terms in the depositional growth of cloud ice to snow, (3) accounting for cloud ice fall speeds, (4) limiting cloud ice particle size, and (5) new size-mapping schemes for snow/graupel as functions of temperature and mixing ratio. Despite the cloud microphysics improvements, systematic errors associated with sub-grid processes and cyclic lateral boundaries in the embedded CRMs remain and will require future improvement.

  15. Microphysical and macrophysical responses of marine stratocumulus polluted by underlying ships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christensen, Matthew Wells

    Multiple sensors flying in the A-train constellation of satellites were used to determine the extent to which aerosol plumes from ships passing below marine stratocumulus alter the microphysical and macrophysical properties of the clouds. Aerosol plumes generated by ships sometimes influence cloud microphysical properties (effective radius) and, to a largely undetermined extent, cloud macrophysical properties (liquid water path, coverage, depth, precipitation, and longevity). Aerosol indirect effects were brought into focus, using observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and the 94-GHZ radar onboard CloudSat. To assess local cloud scale responses to aerosol, the locations of over one thousand ship tracks coinciding with the radar were meticulously logged by hand from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. MODIS imagery was used to distinguish ship tracks that were embedded in closed, open, and unclassifiable mesoscale cellular cloud structures. The impact of aerosol on the microphysical cloud properties in both the closed and open cell regimes were consistent with the changes predicted by the Twomey hypothesis. For the macrophysical changes, differences in the sign and magnitude of these properties were observed between cloud regimes. The results demonstrate that the spatial extent of rainfall (rain cover fraction) and intensity decrease in the clouds contaminated by the ship plume compared to the ambient pristine clouds. A