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Sample records for adversarial risk analysis

  1. Modeling Opponents in Adversarial Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Rios Insua, David; Banks, David; Rios, Jesus

    2016-04-01

    Adversarial risk analysis has been introduced as a framework to deal with risks derived from intentional actions of adversaries. The analysis supports one of the decisionmakers, who must forecast the actions of the other agents. Typically, this forecast must take account of random consequences resulting from the set of selected actions. The solution requires one to model the behavior of the opponents, which entails strategic thinking. The supported agent may face different kinds of opponents, who may use different rationality paradigms, for example, the opponent may behave randomly, or seek a Nash equilibrium, or perform level-k thinking, or use mirroring, or employ prospect theory, among many other possibilities. We describe the appropriate analysis for these situations, and also show how to model the uncertainty about the rationality paradigm used by the opponent through a Bayesian model averaging approach, enabling a fully decision-theoretic solution. We also show how as we observe an opponent's decision behavior, this approach allows learning about the validity of each of the rationality models used to predict his decision by computing the models' (posterior) probabilities, which can be understood as a measure of their validity. We focus on simultaneous decision making by two agents. PMID:26133501

  2. Intelligent adversary risk analysis: a bioterrorism risk management model.

    PubMed

    Parnell, Gregory S; Smith, Christopher M; Moxley, Frederick I

    2010-01-01

    The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender-attacker-defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The risk management model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data. PMID:20002893

  3. Adversarial Risk Analysis for Urban Security Resource Allocation.

    PubMed

    Gil, César; Rios Insua, David; Rios, Jesus

    2016-04-01

    Adversarial risk analysis (ARA) provides a framework to deal with risks originating from intentional actions of adversaries. We show how ARA may be used to allocate security resources in the protection of urban spaces. We take into account the spatial structure and consider both proactive and reactive measures, in that we aim at both trying to reduce criminality as well as recovering as best as possible from it, should it happen. We deal with the problem by deploying an ARA model over each spatial unit, coordinating the models through resource constraints, value aggregation, and proximity. We illustrate our approach with an example that uncovers several relevant policy issues. PMID:26927388

  4. The Adversarial Route Analysis Tool: A Web Application

    SciTech Connect

    Casson, William H. Jr.

    2012-08-02

    The Adversarial Route Analysis Tool is a type of Google maps for adversaries. It's a web-based Geospatial application similar to Google Maps. It helps the U.S. government plan operations that predict where an adversary might be. It's easily accessible and maintainble and it's simple to use without much training.

  5. AGATE: Adversarial Game Analysis for Tactical Evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huntsberger, Terrance L.

    2013-01-01

    AGATE generates a set of ranked strategies that enables an autonomous vehicle to track/trail another vehicle that is trying to break the contact using evasive tactics. The software is efficient (can be run on a laptop), scales well with environmental complexity, and is suitable for use onboard an autonomous vehicle. The software will run in near-real-time (2 Hz) on most commercial laptops. Existing software is usually run offline in a planning mode, and is not used to control an unmanned vehicle actively. JPL has developed a system for AGATE that uses adversarial game theory (AGT) methods (in particular, leader-follower and pursuit-evasion) to enable an autonomous vehicle (AV) to maintain tracking/ trailing operations on a target that is employing evasive tactics. The AV trailing, tracking, and reacquisition operations are characterized by imperfect information, and are an example of a non-zero sum game (a positive payoff for the AV is not necessarily an equal loss for the target being tracked and, potentially, additional adversarial boats). Previously, JPL successfully applied the Nash equilibrium method for onboard control of an autonomous ground vehicle (AGV) travelling over hazardous terrain.

  6. Risk taking in adversarial situations: Civilization differences in chess experts.

    PubMed

    Chassy, Philippe; Gobet, Fernand

    2015-08-01

    The projections of experts in politics predict that a new world order will emerge within two decades. Being multipolar, this world will inevitably lead to frictions where civilizations and states will have to decide whether to risk conflict. Very often these decisions are informed if not taken by experts. To estimate risk-taking across civilizations, we examined strategies used in 667,599 chess games played over eleven years by chess experts from 11 different civilizations. We show that some civilizations are more inclined to settle for peace. Similarly, we show that once engaged in the battle, the level of risk taking varies significantly across civilizations, the boldest civilization using the riskiest strategy about 35% more than the most conservative civilization. We discuss which psychological factors might underpin these civilizational differences. PMID:25912894

  7. Extended defense systems :I. adversary-defender modeling grammar for vulnerability analysis and threat assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Merkle, Peter Benedict

    2006-03-01

    Vulnerability analysis and threat assessment require systematic treatments of adversary and defender characteristics. This work addresses the need for a formal grammar for the modeling and analysis of adversary and defender engagements of interest to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Analytical methods treating both linguistic and numerical information should ensure that neither aspect has disproportionate influence on assessment outcomes. The adversary-defender modeling (ADM) grammar employs classical set theory and notation. It is designed to incorporate contributions from subject matter experts in all relevant disciplines, without bias. The Attack Scenario Space U{sub S} is the set universe of all scenarios possible under physical laws. An attack scenario is a postulated event consisting of the active engagement of at least one adversary with at least one defended target. Target Information Space I{sub S} is the universe of information about targets and defenders. Adversary and defender groups are described by their respective Character super-sets, (A){sub P} and (D){sub F}. Each super-set contains six elements: Objectives, Knowledge, Veracity, Plans, Resources, and Skills. The Objectives are the desired end-state outcomes. Knowledge is comprised of empirical and theoretical a priori knowledge and emergent knowledge (learned during an attack), while Veracity is the correspondence of Knowledge with fact or outcome. Plans are ordered activity-task sequences (tuples) with logical contingencies. Resources are the a priori and opportunistic physical assets and intangible attributes applied to the execution of associated Plans elements. Skills for both adversary and defender include the assumed general and task competencies for the associated plan set, the realized value of competence in execution or exercise, and the opponent's planning assumption of the task competence.

  8. Evaluation of risk from acts of terrorism :the adversary/defender model using belief and fuzzy sets.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2006-09-01

    Risk from an act of terrorism is a combination of the likelihood of an attack, the likelihood of success of the attack, and the consequences of the attack. The considerable epistemic uncertainty in each of these three factors can be addressed using the belief/plausibility measure of uncertainty from the Dempster/Shafer theory of evidence. The adversary determines the likelihood of the attack. The success of the attack and the consequences of the attack are determined by the security system and mitigation measures put in place by the defender. This report documents a process for evaluating risk of terrorist acts using an adversary/defender model with belief/plausibility as the measure of uncertainty. Also, the adversary model is a linguistic model that applies belief/plausibility to fuzzy sets used in an approximate reasoning rule base.

  9. Adversary Sequence Interruption Model

    1985-11-15

    PC EASI is an IBM personal computer or PC-compatible version of an analytical technique for measuring the effectiveness of physical protection systems. PC EASI utilizes a methodology called Estimate of Adversary Sequence Interruption (EASI) which evaluates the probability of interruption (PI) for a given sequence of adversary tasks. Probability of interruption is defined as the probability that the response force will arrive before the adversary force has completed its task. The EASI methodology is amore » probabilistic approach that analytically evaluates basic functions of the physical security system (detection, assessment, communications, and delay) with respect to response time along a single adversary path. It is important that the most critical scenarios for each target be identified to ensure that vulnerabilities have not been overlooked. If the facility is not overly complex, this can be accomplished by examining all paths. If the facility is complex, a global model such as Safeguards Automated Facility Evaluation (SAFE) may be used to identify the most vulnerable paths. PC EASI is menu-driven with screen forms for entering and editing the basic scenarios. In addition to evaluating PI for the basic scenario, the sensitivities of many of the parameters chosen in the scenario can be analyzed. These sensitivities provide information to aid the analyst in determining the tradeoffs for reducing the probability of interruption. PC EASI runs under the Micro Data Base Systems'' proprietary database management system Knowledgeman. KMAN provides the user environment and file management for the specified basic scenarios, and KGRAPH the graphical output of the sensitivity calculations. This software is not included. Due to errors in release 2 of KMAN, PC EASI will not execute properly; release 1.07 of KMAN is required.« less

  10. Risk analysis for critical asset protection.

    PubMed

    McGill, William L; Ayyub, Bilal M; Kaminskiy, Mark

    2007-10-01

    This article proposes a quantitative risk assessment and management framework that supports strategic asset-level resource allocation decision making for critical infrastructure and key resource protection. The proposed framework consists of five phases: scenario identification, consequence and criticality assessment, security vulnerability assessment, threat likelihood assessment, and benefit-cost analysis. Key innovations in this methodology include its initial focus on fundamental asset characteristics to generate an exhaustive set of plausible threat scenarios based on a target susceptibility matrix (which we refer to as asset-driven analysis) and an approach to threat likelihood assessment that captures adversary tendencies to shift their preferences in response to security investments based on the expected utilities of alternative attack profiles assessed from the adversary perspective. A notional example is provided to demonstrate an application of the proposed framework. Extensions of this model to support strategic portfolio-level analysis and tactical risk analysis are suggested. PMID:18076495

  11. Adversarial reasoning: challenges and approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kott, Alexander; Ownby, Michael

    2005-05-01

    This paper defines adversarial reasoning as computational approaches to inferring and anticipating an enemy's perceptions, intents and actions. It argues that adversarial reasoning transcends the boundaries of game theory and must also leverage such disciplines as cognitive modeling, control theory, AI planning and others. To illustrate the challenges of applying adversarial reasoning to real-world problems, the paper explores the lessons learned in the CADET -- a battle planning system that focuses on brigade-level ground operations and involves adversarial reasoning. From this example of current capabilities, the paper proceeds to describe RAID -- a DARPA program that aims to build capabilities in adversarial reasoning, and how such capabilities would address practical requirements in Defense and other application areas.

  12. A Forensically Sound Adversary Model for Mobile Devices.

    PubMed

    Do, Quang; Martini, Ben; Choo, Kim-Kwang Raymond

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose an adversary model to facilitate forensic investigations of mobile devices (e.g. Android, iOS and Windows smartphones) that can be readily adapted to the latest mobile device technologies. This is essential given the ongoing and rapidly changing nature of mobile device technologies. An integral principle and significant constraint upon forensic practitioners is that of forensic soundness. Our adversary model specifically considers and integrates the constraints of forensic soundness on the adversary, in our case, a forensic practitioner. One construction of the adversary model is an evidence collection and analysis methodology for Android devices. Using the methodology with six popular cloud apps, we were successful in extracting various information of forensic interest in both the external and internal storage of the mobile device. PMID:26393812

  13. A Forensically Sound Adversary Model for Mobile Devices

    PubMed Central

    Choo, Kim-Kwang Raymond

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose an adversary model to facilitate forensic investigations of mobile devices (e.g. Android, iOS and Windows smartphones) that can be readily adapted to the latest mobile device technologies. This is essential given the ongoing and rapidly changing nature of mobile device technologies. An integral principle and significant constraint upon forensic practitioners is that of forensic soundness. Our adversary model specifically considers and integrates the constraints of forensic soundness on the adversary, in our case, a forensic practitioner. One construction of the adversary model is an evidence collection and analysis methodology for Android devices. Using the methodology with six popular cloud apps, we were successful in extracting various information of forensic interest in both the external and internal storage of the mobile device. PMID:26393812

  14. Adversarial Contests or Respectful Alliances

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seita, John R.; Brendtro, Larry K.

    2003-01-01

    Schools can become islands of stability or fields of battle for students with emotional and behavioral problems. Research on positive school climate and positive therapeutic outcomes points to the importance of replacing adversarial encounters with respectful relationships. This article discusses how this positive transformation can be achieved.…

  15. Optimal Online Prediction in Adversarial Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartlett, Peter L.

    In many prediction problems, including those that arise in computer security and computational finance, the process generating the data is best modelled as an adversary with whom the predictor competes. Even decision problems that are not inherently adversarial can be usefully modeled in this way, since the assumptions are sufficiently weak that effective prediction strategies for adversarial settings are very widely applicable.

  16. Learning consensus in adversarial environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vamvoudakis, Kyriakos G.; García Carrillo, Luis R.; Hespanha, João. P.

    2013-05-01

    This work presents a game theory-based consensus problem for leaderless multi-agent systems in the presence of adversarial inputs that are introducing disturbance to the dynamics. Given the presence of enemy components and the possibility of malicious cyber attacks compromising the security of networked teams, a position agreement must be reached by the networked mobile team based on environmental changes. The problem is addressed under a distributed decision making framework that is robust to possible cyber attacks, which has an advantage over centralized decision making in the sense that a decision maker is not required to access information from all the other decision makers. The proposed framework derives three tuning laws for every agent; one associated with the cost, one associated with the controller, and one with the adversarial input.

  17. An analytic approach to cyber adversarial dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweeney, Patrick; Cybenko, George

    2012-06-01

    To date, cyber security investment by both the government and commercial sectors has been largely driven by the myopic best response of players to the actions of their adversaries and their perception of the adversarial environment. However, current work in applying traditional game theory to cyber operations typically assumes that games exist with prescribed moves, strategies, and payos. This paper presents an analytic approach to characterizing the more realistic cyber adversarial metagame that we believe is being played. Examples show that understanding the dynamic metagame provides opportunities to exploit an adversary's anticipated attack strategy. A dynamic version of a graph-based attack-defend game is introduced, and a simulation shows how an optimal strategy can be selected for success in the dynamic environment.

  18. Scientific method, adversarial system, and technology assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayo, L. H.

    1975-01-01

    A basic framework is provided for the consideration of the purposes and techniques of scientific method and adversarial systems. Similarities and differences in these two techniques of inquiry are considered with reference to their relevance in the performance of assessments.

  19. Adaptation of a multi-resolution adversarial model for asymmetric warfare

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenberg, Brad; Gonsalves, Paul G.

    2006-05-01

    Recent military operations have demonstrated the use by adversaries of non-traditional or asymmetric military tactics to offset US military might. Rogue nations with links to trans-national terrorists have created a highly unpredictable and potential dangerous environment for US military operations. Several characteristics of these threats include extremism in beliefs, global in nature, non-state oriented, and highly networked and adaptive, thus making these adversaries less vulnerable to conventional military approaches. Additionally, US forces must also contend with more traditional state-based threats that are further evolving their military fighting strategies and capabilities. What are needed are solutions to assist our forces in the prosecution of operations against these diverse threat types and their atypical strategies and tactics. To address this issue, we present a system that allows for the adaptation of a multi-resolution adversarial model. The developed model can then be used to support both training and simulation based acquisition requirements to effectively respond to such an adversary. The described system produces a combined adversarial model by merging behavior modeling at the individual level with aspects at the group and organizational level via network analysis. Adaptation of this adversarial model is performed by means of an evolutionary algorithm to build a suitable model for the chosen adversary.

  20. Taxonomies of Cyber Adversaries and Attacks: A Survey of Incidents and Approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Meyers, C A; Powers, S S; Faissol, D M

    2009-10-08

    In this paper we construct taxonomies of cyber adversaries and methods of attack, drawing from a survey of the literature in the area of cyber crime. We begin by addressing the scope of cyber crime, noting its prevalence and effects on the US economy. We then survey the literature on cyber adversaries, presenting a taxonomy of the different types of adversaries and their corresponding methods, motivations, maliciousness, and skill levels. Subsequently we survey the literature on cyber attacks, giving a taxonomy of the different classes of attacks, subtypes, and threat descriptions. The goal of this paper is to inform future studies of cyber security on the shape and characteristics of the risk space and its associated adversaries.

  1. Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morring, Frank, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    A National Academies panel says the Hubble Space Telescope is too valuable ;or gamblingon a long-shot robotic mission to extend its service life, and urges Directly contradicting Administrator Sean O'Keefe, who killed a planned fifth shuttle servicing mission to the telescope on grounds it was too dangerous for a human crew in the post-Challenger environment, the expert committee found that upgrades to shuttle safety actually should make it less hazardous to fly to the telescope than it was before Columbia was lost. Risks of a telescope-servicing mission are only marginally greater than the planned missions to the International Space Station (ISS) O'Keefe has authorized, the panel found. After comparing those risks to the dangers inherent in trying to develop a complex space robot in the 39 months remaining in the Hubble s estimated service life, the panel opted for the human mission to save one of the major achievements of the American space program, in the words of Louis J. Lanzerotti, its chairman.

  2. Adversarial Feature Selection Against Evasion Attacks.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Fei; Chan, Patrick P K; Biggio, Battista; Yeung, Daniel S; Roli, Fabio

    2016-03-01

    Pattern recognition and machine learning techniques have been increasingly adopted in adversarial settings such as spam, intrusion, and malware detection, although their security against well-crafted attacks that aim to evade detection by manipulating data at test time has not yet been thoroughly assessed. While previous work has been mainly focused on devising adversary-aware classification algorithms to counter evasion attempts, only few authors have considered the impact of using reduced feature sets on classifier security against the same attacks. An interesting, preliminary result is that classifier security to evasion may be even worsened by the application of feature selection. In this paper, we provide a more detailed investigation of this aspect, shedding some light on the security properties of feature selection against evasion attacks. Inspired by previous work on adversary-aware classifiers, we propose a novel adversary-aware feature selection model that can improve classifier security against evasion attacks, by incorporating specific assumptions on the adversary's data manipulation strategy. We focus on an efficient, wrapper-based implementation of our approach, and experimentally validate its soundness on different application examples, including spam and malware detection. PMID:25910268

  3. Capturing the uncertainty in adversary attack simulations.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.; Brooks, Traci N.; Berry, Robert Bruce

    2008-09-01

    This work provides a comprehensive uncertainty technique to evaluate uncertainty, resulting in a more realistic evaluation of PI, thereby requiring fewer resources to address scenarios and allowing resources to be used across more scenarios. For a given set of dversary resources, two types of uncertainty are associated with PI for a scenario: (1) aleatory (random) uncertainty for detection probabilities and time delays and (2) epistemic (state of knowledge) uncertainty for the adversary resources applied during an attack. Adversary esources consist of attributes (such as equipment and training) and knowledge about the security system; to date, most evaluations have assumed an adversary with very high resources, adding to the conservatism in the evaluation of PI. The aleatory uncertainty in PI is ddressed by assigning probability distributions to detection probabilities and time delays. A numerical sampling technique is used to evaluate PI, addressing the repeated variable dependence in the equation for PI.

  4. FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

  5. Probabilistic Characterization of Adversary Behavior in Cyber Security

    SciTech Connect

    Meyers, C A; Powers, S S; Faissol, D M

    2009-10-08

    The objective of this SMS effort is to provide a probabilistic characterization of adversary behavior in cyber security. This includes both quantitative (data analysis) and qualitative (literature review) components. A set of real LLNL email data was obtained for this study, consisting of several years worth of unfiltered traffic sent to a selection of addresses at ciac.org. The email data was subjected to three interrelated analyses: a textual study of the header data and subject matter, an examination of threats present in message attachments, and a characterization of the maliciousness of embedded URLs.

  6. Using adversary text to detect adversary phase changes.

    SciTech Connect

    Speed, Ann Elizabeth; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Warrender, Christina E.

    2009-05-01

    The purpose of this work was to help develop a research roadmap and small proof ofconcept for addressing key problems and gaps from the perspective of using text analysis methods as a primary tool for detecting when a group is undergoing a phase change. Self- rganizing map (SOM) techniques were used to analyze text data obtained from the tworld-wide web. Statistical studies indicate that it may be possible to predict phase changes, as well as detect whether or not an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.

  7. Modeling adversarial intent for interactive simulation and gaming: the fused intent system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, Eugene, Jr.; McQueary, Bruce; Krause, Lee

    2008-04-01

    Understanding the intent of today's enemy necessitates changes in intelligence collection, processing, and dissemination. Unlike cold war antagonists, today's enemies operate in small, agile, and distributed cells whose tactics do not map well to established doctrine. This has necessitated a proliferation of advanced sensor and intelligence gathering techniques at level 0 and level 1 of the Joint Directors of Laboratories fusion model. The challenge is in leveraging modeling and simulation to transform the vast amounts of level 0 and level 1 data into actionable intelligence at levels 2 and 3 that include adversarial intent. Currently, warfighters are flooded with information (facts/observables) regarding what the enemy is presently doing, but provided inadequate explanations of adversarial intent and they cannot simulate 'what-if' scenarios to increase their predictive situational awareness. The Fused Intent System (FIS) aims to address these deficiencies by providing an environment that answers 'what' the adversary is doing, 'why' they are doing it, and 'how' they will react to coalition actions. In this paper, we describe our approach to FIS which includes adversarial 'soft-factors' such as goals, rationale, and beliefs within a computational model that infers adversarial intent and allows the insertion of assumptions to be used in conjunction with current battlefield state to perform what-if analysis. Our approach combines ontological modeling for classification and Bayesian-based abductive reasoning for explanation and has broad applicability to the operational, training, and commercial gaming domains.

  8. Quantitative environmental risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Klovning, J.; Nilsen, E.F.

    1995-12-31

    According to regulations relating to implementation and rise of risk analysis in the petroleum activities issued by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, it is mandatory for an operator on the Norwegian Continental Shelf to establish acceptance criteria for environmental risk in the activities and carry out environmental risk analysis. This paper presents a {open_quotes}new{close_quotes} method for environmental risk analysis developed by the company. The objective has been to assist the company to meet rules and regulations and to assess and describe the environmental risk in a systematic manner. In the environmental risk analysis the most sensitive biological resource in the affected area is used to assess the environmental damage. The analytical method is based on the methodology for quantitative risk analysis related to loss of life. In addition it incorporates the effect of seasonal fluctuations in the environmental risk evaluations. The paper is describing the function of the main analytical sequences exemplified through an analysis of environmental risk related to exploration drilling in an environmental sensitive area on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

  9. Incorporating opponent models into adversary search

    SciTech Connect

    Carmel, D.; Markovitch, S.

    1996-12-31

    This work presents a generalized theoretical framework that allows incorporation of opponent models into adversary search. We present the M* algorithm, a generalization of minimax that uses an arbitrary opponent model to simulate the opponent`s search. The opponent model is a recursive structure consisting of the opponent`s evaluation function and its model of the player. We demonstrate experimentally the potential benefit of using an opponent model. Pruning in M* is impossible in the general case. We prove a sufficient condition for pruning and present the {alpha}{beta}* algorithm which returns the M* value of a tree while searching only necessary branches.

  10. Risk analysis methodology survey

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batson, Robert G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

  11. Risk/Stress Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwerdtfeger, Don; Howell, Richard E.

    1986-01-01

    Identifies stress as a definite health hazard and risk factor involved in a variety of health situations. Proposes that stress identification efforts be considered in environmental analysis so that a more complete approach to risk assessment and management and health hazard prevention can occur. (ML)

  12. Is risk analysis scientific?

    PubMed

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). PMID:24919396

  13. Program risk analysis handbook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batson, R. G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations specify that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from extremely simple to complex network-based simulation, are described in this handbook in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique. All program risk assessment techniques are shown to be based on elicitation and encoding of subjective probability estimates from the various area experts on a program. Techniques to encode the five most common distribution types are given. Then, a total of twelve distinct approaches to risk assessment are given. Steps involved, good and bad points, time involved, and degree of computer support needed are listed. Why risk analysis should be used by all NASA program managers is discussed. Tools available at NASA-MSFC are identified, along with commercially available software. Bibliography (150 entries) and a program risk analysis check-list are provided.

  14. Constructing adversarial models for threat/enemy intent prediction and inferencing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, Eugene, Jr.; Negri, Allesandro

    2004-08-01

    We examine an adversary model that captures goals, intentions, biases, beliefs, and perceptions based on a dynamic cognitive architecture that evolves over time. The model manages the uncertainty surrounding the adversary using probabilistic networks. In particular, we consider the challenges of constructing such adversaries and provide solutions towards more effective and efficient engineering of such adversaries. We present the AII Template Generator tool which enables the rapid deployment of adversary models as well as on-demand construction of new adversary components.

  15. 'Meatball searching' - The adversarial approach to online information retrieval

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jack, R. F.

    1985-01-01

    It is proposed that the different styles of online searching can be described as either formal (highly precise) or informal with the needs of the client dictating which is most applicable at a particular moment. The background and personality of the searcher also come into play. Particular attention is focused on meatball searching which is a form of online searching characterized by deliberate vagueness. It requires generally comprehensive searches, often on unusual topics and with tight deadlines. It is most likely to occur in search centers serving many different disciplines and levels of client information sophistication. Various information needs are outlined as well as the laws of meatball searching and the adversarial approach. Traits and characteristics important to sucessful searching include: (1) concept analysis, (2) flexibility of thinking, (3) ability to think in synonyms and (4) anticipation of variant word forms and spellings.

  16. Targeted assets risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Bouwsema, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessments utilising the consolidated risk assessment process as described by Public Safety Canada and the Centre for Security Science utilise the five threat categories of natural, human accidental, technological, human intentional and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or explosive (CBRNE). The categories of human intentional and CBRNE indicate intended actions against specific targets. It is therefore necessary to be able to identify which pieces of critical infrastructure represent the likely targets of individuals with malicious intent. Using the consolidated risk assessment process and the target capabilities list, coupled with the CARVER methodology and a security vulnerability analysis, it is possible to identify these targeted assets and their weaknesses. This process can help emergency managers to identify where resources should be allocated and funding spent. Targeted Assets Risk Analysis (TARA) presents a new opportunity to improve how risk is measured, monitored, managed and minimised through the four phases of emergency management, namely, prevention, preparation, response and recovery. To reduce risk throughout Canada, Defence Research and Development Canada is interested in researching the potential benefits of a comprehensive approach to risk assessment and management. The TARA provides a framework against which potential human intentional threats can be measured and quantified, thereby improving safety for all Canadians. PMID:23615063

  17. DWPF risk analysis summary

    SciTech Connect

    Shedrow, C.B.

    1990-10-01

    This document contains selected risk analysis data from Chapter 9 (Safety Analysis) of the Defense Waste Processing Facility Safety Analysis Report DWPF SAR and draft Addendum 1 to the Waste Tank Farms SAR. Although these data may be revised prior to finalization of the draft SAR and the draft addendum, they are presently the best available information and were therefore used in preparing the risk analysis portion of the DWPF Environmental Analysis (DWPF EA). This information has been extracted from those draft documents an approved under separate cover so that it can be used as reference material for the DWPF EA when it is placed in the public reading rooms. 9 refs., 4 tabs.

  18. d-Dimensional quantum state sharing with adversary structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Huawang; Dai, Yuewei

    2016-04-01

    A quantum secret sharing scheme with adversary structure is proposed. In the proposed scheme, the secret is a d-dimensional quantum state. The dealer can distribute the private keys according to the adversary structure and encode the quantum state through the d-dimensional Pauli unitary operation. The legitimate participants perform the unitary operations on the encrypted quantum state according to their private keys and recover the original quantum state. Compared to the existing QSS schemes, our scheme can be more efficient when only the adversary structure is given.

  19. Potential criminal adversaries of nuclear programs: a portrait

    SciTech Connect

    Jenkins, B.M.

    1980-07-01

    This paper examines the possibility that terrorists or other kinds of criminals might attempt to seize or sabotage a nuclear facility, steal nuclear material, or carry out other criminal activities in the nuclear domain which has created special problems for the security of nuclear programs. This paper analyzes the potential threat. Our tasks was to describe the potential criminal adversary, or rather the spectrum of potential adversaries who conceivably might carry out malevolent criminal actions against nuclear programs and facilities. We were concerned with both the motivations as well as the material and operational capabilities likely to be displayed by various categories of potential nuclear adversaries.

  20. Trial of an Adversary Hearing: Public Policy in Weather Modification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fairley, William; Mosteller, Frederick

    1972-01-01

    The organization, presentation, and results of a mock adversary hearing on a topic involving the use of simple and complex statistics is described. The use of this format as a teaching technique for mathematics and statistics classes is discussed. (DT)

  1. Bring a gun to a gunfight: armed adversaries and violence across nations.

    PubMed

    Felson, Richard B; Berg, Mark T; Rogers, Meghan L

    2014-09-01

    We use homicide data and the International Crime Victimization Survey to examine the role of firearms in explaining cross-national variation in violence. We suggest that while gun violence begets gun violence, it inhibits the tendency to engage in violence without guns. We attribute the patterns to adversary effects-i.e., the tendency of offenders to take into account the threat posed by their adversaries. Multi-level analyses of victimization data support the hypothesis that living in countries with high rates of gun violence lowers an individual's risk of an unarmed assault and assaults with less lethal weapons. Analyses of aggregate data show that homicide rates and gun violence rates load on a separate underlying factor than other types of violence. The results suggest that a country's homicide rate reflects, to a large extent, the tendency of its offenders to use firearms. PMID:24913946

  2. With God on our side: Religious primes reduce the envisioned physical formidability of a menacing adversary.

    PubMed

    Holbrook, Colin; Fessler, Daniel M T; Pollack, Jeremy

    2016-01-01

    The imagined support of benevolent supernatural agents attenuates anxiety and risk perception. Here, we extend these findings to judgments of the threat posed by a potentially violent adversary. Conceptual representations of bodily size and strength summarize factors that determine the relative threat posed by foes. The proximity of allies moderates the envisioned physical formidability of adversaries, suggesting that cues of access to supernatural allies will reduce the envisioned physical formidability of a threatening target. Across two studies, subtle cues of both supernatural and earthly social support reduced the envisioned physical formidability of a violent criminal. These manipulations had no effect on the perceived likelihood of encountering non-conflictual physical danger, raising the possibility that imagined supernatural support leads participants to view themselves not as shielded from encountering perilous situations, but as protected should perils arise. PMID:26524139

  3. The effect of horizontal eye movements on free recall: a preregistered adversarial collaboration.

    PubMed

    Matzke, Dora; Nieuwenhuis, Sander; van Rijn, Hedderik; Slagter, Heleen A; van der Molen, Maurits W; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2015-02-01

    A growing body of research has suggested that horizontal saccadic eye movements facilitate the retrieval of episodic memories in free recall and recognition memory tasks. Nevertheless, a minority of studies have failed to replicate this effect. This article attempts to resolve the inconsistent results by introducing a novel variant of proponent-skeptic collaboration. The proposed approach combines the features of adversarial collaboration and purely confirmatory preregistered research. Prior to data collection, the adversaries reached consensus on an optimal research design, formulated their expectations, and agreed to submit the findings to an academic journal regardless of the outcome. To increase transparency and secure the purely confirmatory nature of the investigation, the 2 parties set up a publicly available adversarial collaboration agreement that detailed the proposed design and all foreseeable aspects of the data analysis. As anticipated by the skeptics, a series of Bayesian hypothesis tests indicated that horizontal eye movements did not improve free recall performance. The skeptics suggested that the nonreplication may partly reflect the use of suboptimal and questionable research practices in earlier eye movement studies. The proponents countered this suggestion and used a p curve analysis to argue that the effect of horizontal eye movements on explicit memory did not merely reflect selective reporting. PMID:25621378

  4. Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment

    2014-02-10

    RAVEN has 3 major functionalities: 1. Provides a Graphical User Interface for the pre- and post-processing of the RELAP-7 input and output. 2. Provides the capability to model nuclear power plants control logic for the RELAP-7 code and dynamic control of the accident scenario evolution. This capability is based on a software structure that realizes a direct connection between the RELAP-7 solver engine (MOOSE) and a python environment where the variables describing the plant statusmore » are accessible in a scripting environment. RAVEN support the generation of the probabilistic scenario control by supplying a wide range of probability and cumulative distribution functions and their inverse functions. 3. Provides a general environment to perform probability risk analysis for RELAP-7, RELAP-5 and any generic MOOSE based applications. The probabilistic analysis is performed by sampling the input space of the coupled code parameters and it is enhanced by using modern artificial intelligence algorithms that accelerate the identification of the areas of major risk (in the input parameter space). This environment also provides a graphical visualization capability to analyze the outcomes. Among other approaches, the classical Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling algorithms are available. For the acceleration of the convergence of the sampling methodologies, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian regression, and collocation stochastic polynomials chaos are implemented. The same methodologies here described could be used to solve optimization and uncertainties propagation problems using the RAVEN framework.« less

  5. Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment

    SciTech Connect

    2014-02-10

    RAVEN has 3 major functionalities: 1. Provides a Graphical User Interface for the pre- and post-processing of the RELAP-7 input and output. 2. Provides the capability to model nuclear power plants control logic for the RELAP-7 code and dynamic control of the accident scenario evolution. This capability is based on a software structure that realizes a direct connection between the RELAP-7 solver engine (MOOSE) and a python environment where the variables describing the plant status are accessible in a scripting environment. RAVEN support the generation of the probabilistic scenario control by supplying a wide range of probability and cumulative distribution functions and their inverse functions. 3. Provides a general environment to perform probability risk analysis for RELAP-7, RELAP-5 and any generic MOOSE based applications. The probabilistic analysis is performed by sampling the input space of the coupled code parameters and it is enhanced by using modern artificial intelligence algorithms that accelerate the identification of the areas of major risk (in the input parameter space). This environment also provides a graphical visualization capability to analyze the outcomes. Among other approaches, the classical Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling algorithms are available. For the acceleration of the convergence of the sampling methodologies, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian regression, and collocation stochastic polynomials chaos are implemented. The same methodologies here described could be used to solve optimization and uncertainties propagation problems using the RAVEN framework.

  6. Adversarial Growth in Telephone Counsellors: Psychological and Environmental Influences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Sullivan, Julian; Whelan, Thomas A.

    2011-01-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate the level of adversarial growth among telephone counsellors, and to examine the influence of psychological and environmental factors on growth. In particular, the effect of compassion fatigue, empathy, environmental support and calls per shift on posttraumatic growth was assessed. Sixty-four telephone…

  7. Terrorism and Perspectivist Philosophy: Understanding Adversarial News Coverage.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Thomas W.

    Perspective realism, particularly as modified into the special case of adversarial perspectivism, and the analogy of reciprocal concave and convex world views, is an important and neglected component in accounting for the widespread discrepancies in the reporting of so-called "terrorist" events. However, the tendencies toward cooperation between…

  8. Semantic policy and adversarial modeling for cyber threat identification and avoidance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeFrancesco, Anton; McQueary, Bruce

    2009-05-01

    Today's enterprise networks undergo a relentless barrage of attacks from foreign and domestic adversaries. These attacks may be perpetrated with little to no funding, but may wreck incalculable damage upon the enterprises security, network infrastructure, and services. As more services come online, systems that were once in isolation now provide information that may be combined dynamically with information from other systems to create new meaning on the fly. Security issues are compounded by the potential to aggregate individual pieces of information and infer knowledge at a higher classification than any of its constituent parts. To help alleviate these challenges, in this paper we introduce the notion of semantic policy and discuss how it's use is evolving from a robust approach to access control to preempting and combating attacks in the cyber domain, The introduction of semantic policy and adversarial modeling to network security aims to ask 'where is the network most vulnerable', 'how is the network being attacked', and 'why is the network being attacked'. The first aspect of our approach is integration of semantic policy into enterprise security to augment traditional network security with an overall awareness of policy access and violations. This awareness allows the semantic policy to look at the big picture - analyzing trends and identifying critical relations in system wide data access. The second aspect of our approach is to couple adversarial modeling with semantic policy to move beyond reactive security measures and into a proactive identification of system weaknesses and areas of vulnerability. By utilizing Bayesian-based methodologies, the enterprise wide meaning of data and semantic policy is applied to probability and high-level risk identification. This risk identification will help mitigate potential harm to enterprise networks by enabling resources to proactively isolate, lock-down, and secure systems that are most vulnerable.

  9. Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

    2015-01-01

    Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

  10. Object Oriented Risk Analysis Workshop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pons, M. Güell I.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2009-04-01

    In the framework of the RISET Project (Interfaculty Network of Support to Education and Technology) an educational tool for introducing risk analysis has been developed. This workshop enables to carry a group of students (role-play game) through a step-by-step process of risk identification and quantification. The aim is to assess risk in a characteristic alpine village regarding natural hazards (rockfall, snow avalanche, flooding…) and is oriented to affected objects such as buildings, infrastructures... The workshop contains the following steps: 1.- Planning of the study and definition of stakeholders 2.- Hazard identification 3.- Risk analysis 4.- Risk assessment 5.- Proposition of mitigation measures 6- Risk management and cost-benefit analysis. During the process, information related to past events and useful concepts are provided in order to bring up discussion and decision making. The Risk Matrix and other graphical tools allow having a visual representation of the risk level and help to prioritize counter measures. At the end of the workshop, there is the possibility to compare the results between different groups and print out a summarizing report. This approach provides a rapid and comprehensible risk evaluation. The workshop is accessible from the internet and will be used for educational purposes at bachelor and master level as well as for external persons dealing with risk analysis.

  11. Risk analysis and management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, H. E.

    1990-01-01

    Present software development accomplishments are indicative of the emerging interest in and increasing efforts to provide risk assessment backbone tools in the manned spacecraft engineering community. There are indications that similar efforts are underway in the chemical processes industry and are probably being planned for other high risk ground base environments. It appears that complex flight systems intended for extended manned planetary exploration will drive this technology.

  12. Budget Risk & Prioritization Analysis Tool

    2010-12-31

    BRPAtool performs the following: •Assists managers in making solid decisions on what scope/activities to reduce and/or eliminate, to meet constrained budgets, based on multiple risk factors •Enables analysis of different budget scenarios •Can analyze risks and cost for each activity based on technical, quantifiable risk criteria and management-determined risks •Real-time analysis •Enables managers to determine the multipliers and where funding is best applied •Promotes solid budget defense

  13. Code System to Calculate Brief Adversary Threat Loss Estimate.

    SciTech Connect

    HARLAN, CHARLENE P.

    1999-11-23

    Version 00 PC-BATLE is an analytical stochastic model designed to simulate combat engagements between a security force at a nuclear facility and an adversary force attempting to steal nuclear materials or to cause the release of radiological materials through an act of sabotage. The engagement is modeled as a modified continuous-time Markov process in which the state of the process at any time is the number of guards and adversaries currently in the system. Casualties to guards and adversaries are determined automatically by the model based on combatant characteristics and site parameters. Combatant characteristics which are specified as input data include force size, type of weapon used, posture, percent of time delaying (an attempt to prolong the engagement), proficiency, defense or assault tactic, and degradation in firing due to an individual's posture. Site parameters include range of the engagement, exposure to the combatants, and degradation in firing due to target illumination. Reinforcements to either or both forces can be specified by the user and will automatically be included at the appropriate time. Output consists of data on engagement duration, combatant survival, and win probabilities.

  14. Code System to Calculate Brief Adversary Threat Loss Estimate.

    1999-11-23

    Version 00 PC-BATLE is an analytical stochastic model designed to simulate combat engagements between a security force at a nuclear facility and an adversary force attempting to steal nuclear materials or to cause the release of radiological materials through an act of sabotage. The engagement is modeled as a modified continuous-time Markov process in which the state of the process at any time is the number of guards and adversaries currently in the system. Casualtiesmore » to guards and adversaries are determined automatically by the model based on combatant characteristics and site parameters. Combatant characteristics which are specified as input data include force size, type of weapon used, posture, percent of time delaying (an attempt to prolong the engagement), proficiency, defense or assault tactic, and degradation in firing due to an individual's posture. Site parameters include range of the engagement, exposure to the combatants, and degradation in firing due to target illumination. Reinforcements to either or both forces can be specified by the user and will automatically be included at the appropriate time. Output consists of data on engagement duration, combatant survival, and win probabilities.« less

  15. Source Anonymity in WSNs against Global Adversary Utilizing Low Transmission Rates with Delay Constraints.

    PubMed

    Bushnag, Anas; Abuzneid, Abdelshakour; Mahmood, Ausif

    2016-01-01

    Wireless sensor networks (WSN) are deployed for many applications such as tracking and monitoring of endangered species, military applications, etc. which require anonymity of the origin, known as Source Location Privacy (SLP). The aim in SLP is to prevent unauthorized observers from tracing the source of a real event by analyzing the traffic in the network. Previous approaches to SLP such as Fortified Anonymous Communication Protocol (FACP) employ transmission of real or fake packets in every time slot, which is inefficient. To overcome this shortcoming, we developed three different techniques presented in this paper. Dummy Uniform Distribution (DUD), Dummy Adaptive Distribution (DAD) and Controlled Dummy Adaptive Distribution (CAD) were developed to overcome the anonymity problem against a global adversary (which has the capability of analyzing and monitoring the entire network). Most of the current techniques try to prevent the adversary from perceiving the location and time of the real event whereas our proposed techniques confuse the adversary about the existence of the real event by introducing low rate fake messages, which subsequently lead to location and time privacy. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed techniques provide reasonable delivery ratio, delay, and overhead of a real event's packets while keeping a high level of anonymity. Three different analysis models are conducted to verify the performance of our techniques. A visualization of the simulation data is performed to confirm anonymity. Further, neural network models are developed to ensure that the introduced techniques preserve SLP. Finally, a steganography model based on probability is implemented to prove the anonymity of the techniques. PMID:27355948

  16. Source Anonymity in WSNs against Global Adversary Utilizing Low Transmission Rates with Delay Constraints

    PubMed Central

    Bushnag, Anas; Abuzneid, Abdelshakour; Mahmood, Ausif

    2016-01-01

    Wireless sensor networks (WSN) are deployed for many applications such as tracking and monitoring of endangered species, military applications, etc. which require anonymity of the origin, known as Source Location Privacy (SLP). The aim in SLP is to prevent unauthorized observers from tracing the source of a real event by analyzing the traffic in the network. Previous approaches to SLP such as Fortified Anonymous Communication Protocol (FACP) employ transmission of real or fake packets in every time slot, which is inefficient. To overcome this shortcoming, we developed three different techniques presented in this paper. Dummy Uniform Distribution (DUD), Dummy Adaptive Distribution (DAD) and Controlled Dummy Adaptive Distribution (CAD) were developed to overcome the anonymity problem against a global adversary (which has the capability of analyzing and monitoring the entire network). Most of the current techniques try to prevent the adversary from perceiving the location and time of the real event whereas our proposed techniques confuse the adversary about the existence of the real event by introducing low rate fake messages, which subsequently lead to location and time privacy. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed techniques provide reasonable delivery ratio, delay, and overhead of a real event's packets while keeping a high level of anonymity. Three different analysis models are conducted to verify the performance of our techniques. A visualization of the simulation data is performed to confirm anonymity. Further, neural network models are developed to ensure that the introduced techniques preserve SLP. Finally, a steganography model based on probability is implemented to prove the anonymity of the techniques. PMID:27355948

  17. Initial Decision and Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-29

    Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

  18. Evaluating data distribution and drift vulnerabilities of machine learning algorithms in secure and adversarial environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Kevin; Corbin, George; Blowers, Misty

    2014-05-01

    Machine learning is continuing to gain popularity due to its ability to solve problems that are difficult to model using conventional computer programming logic. Much of the current and past work has focused on algorithm development, data processing, and optimization. Lately, a subset of research has emerged which explores issues related to security. This research is gaining traction as systems employing these methods are being applied to both secure and adversarial environments. One of machine learning's biggest benefits, its data-driven versus logic-driven approach, is also a weakness if the data on which the models rely are corrupted. Adversaries could maliciously influence systems which address drift and data distribution changes using re-training and online learning. Our work is focused on exploring the resilience of various machine learning algorithms to these data-driven attacks. In this paper, we present our initial findings using Monte Carlo simulations, and statistical analysis, to explore the maximal achievable shift to a classification model, as well as the required amount of control over the data.

  19. An Efficient Protocol for Secure Two-Party Computation in the Presence of Malicious Adversaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindell, Yehuda; Pinkas, Benny

    We show an efficient secure two-party protocol, based on Yao's construction, which provides security against malicious adversaries. Yao's original protocol is only secure in the presence of semi-honest adversaries. Security against malicious adversaries can be obtained by applying the compiler of Goldreich, Micali and Wigderson (the "GMW compiler"). However, this approach does not seem to be very practical as it requires using generic zero-knowledge proofs.

  20. Quantifying Adversary Capabilities to Inform Defensive Resource Allocation.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chen; Bier, Vicki M

    2016-04-01

    We propose a Bayesian Stackelberg game capable of analyzing the joint effects of both attacker intent and capabilities on optimal defensive strategies. The novel feature of our model is the use of contest success functions from economics to capture the extent to which the success of an attack is attributable to the adversary's capability (as well as the level of defensive investment), rather than pure luck. Results of a two-target example suggest that precise assessment of attacker intent may not be necessary if we have poor estimates of attacker capability. PMID:25929274

  1. 78 FR 55772 - Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: “American Adversaries...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-11

    ... Copley in a Transatlantic World'' SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given of the following determinations... Adversaries: West and Copley in a Transatlantic World,'' imported from abroad for temporary exhibition...

  2. GROWING NEED FOR RISK ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk analysis has been increasingly receiving attention in making environmental decisions. or example, in its May 18, 1993 Combustion Strategy announcement, EPA required that any issuance of a new hazardous waste combustion permit be preceded by the performance of a complete (dir...

  3. Risk analysis of spent fuel transportation

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1986-01-01

    This book discusses the kinds of judgments that must go into a technical analysis of risk and moves on to the sociopolitical aspects of risk analysis where the same set of facts can be honestly but differently interpreted. Also outlines options available in risk management and reviews courts' involvement with risk analysis.

  4. Living in an Adversarial Society. Concept Paper No. 11. NCTE Concept Paper Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Denny

    Suggesting that U.S. society is an adversarial one that makes sure that certain groups of people fail, this paper explores the ascription of failure in the adversarial contexts of the family, the school, and the workplace. The paper argues that if Americans continue to ascribe pariah status to large segments of the society, then the United States…

  5. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  6. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... analysis or VA's Office of Inspector General conducts an independent risk analysis of the data breach....

  7. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... analysis or VA's Office of Inspector General conducts an independent risk analysis of the data breach....

  8. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... analysis or VA's Office of Inspector General conducts an independent risk analysis of the data breach....

  9. North energy system risk analysis features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prokhorov, V. A.; Prokhorov, D. V.

    2015-12-01

    Risk indicator analysis for a decentralized energy system of the North was carried out. Based on analysis of damages caused by accidents at energy systems, their structure is selected, and a North energy system risk determination method was proposed.

  10. Static-99R reporting practices in sexually violent predator cases: Does norm selection reflect adversarial allegiance?

    PubMed

    Chevalier, Caroline S; Boccaccini, Marcus T; Murrie, Daniel C; Varela, Jorge G

    2015-06-01

    We surveyed experts (N = 109) who conduct sexually violent predator (SVP) evaluations to obtain information about their Static-99R score reporting and interpretation practices. Although most evaluators reported providing at least 1 normative sample recidivism rate estimate, there were few other areas of consensus. Instead, reporting practices differed depending on the side for which evaluators typically performed evaluations. Defense evaluators were more likely to endorse reporting practices that convey the lowest possible level of risk (e.g., routine sample recidivism rates, 5-year recidivism rates) and the highest level of uncertainty (e.g., confidence intervals, classification accuracy), whereas prosecution evaluators were more likely to endorse practices suggesting the highest possible level of risk (e.g., high risk/need sample recidivism rates, 10-year recidivism rates). Reporting practices from state-agency evaluators tended to be more consistent with those of prosecution evaluators than defense evaluators, although state-agency evaluators were more likely than other evaluators to report that it was at least somewhat difficult to choose an appropriate normative comparison group. Overall, findings provide evidence for adversarial allegiance in Static-99R score reporting and interpretation practices. PMID:25495715

  11. Human collective dynamics: Two groups in adversarial encounter. [melete code

    SciTech Connect

    Sandoval, D.L.; Harlow, F.H.; Genin, K.E.

    1988-04-01

    The behavior of a group of people depends strongly on the interaction of personal (individual) traits with the collective moods of the group as a whole. We have developed a computer program to model circumstances of this nature with recognition of the crucial role played by such psychological properties as fear, excitement, peer pressure, moral outrage, and anger, together with the distribution among participants of intrinsic susceptibilities to these emotions. This report extends previous work to consider two groups of people in adversarial encounter, for example, two platoons in battle, a SWAT team against rioting prisoners, or opposing mobs of different ethnic backgrounds. Closely related applications of the modeling include prowling groups of predatory animals interacting with herds of prey, and even the ''slow-mob'' behavior of social or political units in their response to legislative or judicial activities. Examples in this present study emphasize battlefield encounters, with each group characterizzed by its susceptibilities, skills, and other manifestions of both intentional and accidental circumstances. Specifically, we investigate the relative importance of leadership, camaraderie, training level (i.e. skill in firing weapons), bravery, excitability, and dedication in the battle performance of personnel with random or specified distributions of capabilities and susceptibilities in these various regards. The goal is to exhibit the probable outcome of these encounters in circumstances involving specified battle goals and distributions of terrain impediments. A collateral goal is to provide a real-time hands-on battle simulator into which a leadership trainee can insert his own interactive command.

  12. Satisfiability-unsatisfiability transition in the adversarial satisfiability problem.

    PubMed

    Bardoscia, Marco; Nagaj, Daniel; Scardicchio, Antonello

    2014-03-01

    Adversarial satisfiability (AdSAT) is a generalization of the satisfiability (SAT) problem in which two players try to make a Boolean formula true (resp. false) by controlling their respective sets of variables. AdSAT belongs to a higher complexity class in the polynomial hierarchy than SAT, and therefore the nature of the critical region and the transition are not easily parallel to those of SAT and worthy of independent study. AdSAT also provides an upper bound for the transition threshold of the quantum satisfiability problem (QSAT). We present a complete algorithm for AdSAT, show that 2-AdSAT is in P, and then study two stochastic algorithms (simulated annealing and its improved variant) and compare their performances in detail for 3-AdSAT. Varying the density of clauses α we claim that there is a sharp SAT-UNSAT transition at a critical value whose upper bound is αc≲1.5, suggesting a much stricter upper bound for the QSAT transition than those previously found. PMID:24730811

  13. 29 CFR 102.143 - “Adversary adjudication” defined; entitlement to award; eligibility for award.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... at any time after October 1, 1984. (b) A respondent in an adversary adjudication who prevails in that... control. Part-time employees shall be included on a proportional basis. (g) The net worth and number...

  14. 29 CFR 102.143 - “Adversary adjudication” defined; entitlement to award; eligibility for award.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... at any time after October 1, 1984. (b) A respondent in an adversary adjudication who prevails in that... control. Part-time employees shall be included on a proportional basis. (g) The net worth and number...

  15. 29 CFR 102.143 - “Adversary adjudication” defined; entitlement to award; eligibility for award.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... at any time after October 1, 1984. (b) A respondent in an adversary adjudication who prevails in that... control. Part-time employees shall be included on a proportional basis. (g) The net worth and number...

  16. 29 CFR 102.143 - “Adversary adjudication” defined; entitlement to award; eligibility for award.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... at any time after October 1, 1984. (b) A respondent in an adversary adjudication who prevails in that... control. Part-time employees shall be included on a proportional basis. (g) The net worth and number...

  17. 29 CFR 102.143 - “Adversary adjudication” defined; entitlement to award; eligibility for award.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... at any time after October 1, 1984. (b) A respondent in an adversary adjudication who prevails in that... control. Part-time employees shall be included on a proportional basis. (g) The net worth and number...

  18. Adversarial reasoning and resource allocation: the LG approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stilman, Boris; Yakhnis, Vladimir; Umanskiy, Oleg; Boyd, Ron

    2005-05-01

    Many existing automated tools purporting to model the intelligent enemy utilize a fixed battle plan for the enemy while using flexible decisions of human players for the friendly side. According to the Naval Studies Board, "It is an open secret and a point of distress ... that too much of the substantive content of such M&S has its origin in anecdote, ..., or a narrow construction tied to stereotypical current practices of 'doctrinally correct behavior.'" Clearly, such runs lack objectivity by being heavily skewed in favor of the friendly forces. Presently, the military branches employ a variety of game-based simulators and synthetic environments, with manual (i.e., user-based) decision-making, for training and other purposes. However, without an ability to automatically generate the best strategies, tactics, and COA, the games serve mostly to display the current situation rather than form a basis for automated decision-making and effective training. We solve the problem of adversarial reasoning as a gaming problem employing Linguistic Geometry (LG), a new type of game theory demonstrating significant increase in size in gaming problems solvable in real and near-real time. It appears to be a viable approach for solving such practical problems as mission planning and battle management. Essentially, LG may be structured into two layers: game construction and game solving. Game construction includes construction of a game called an LG hypergame based on a hierarchy of Abstract Board Games (ABG). Game solving includes resource allocation for constructing an advantageous initial game state and strategy generation to reach a desirable final game state in the course of the game.

  19. RISK ANALYSIS: CASE HISTORY OF PUCCINIA JACEAE ON YELLOW STARTHISTLE

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Risk analysis has five components: Risk awareness, Risk perception, Risk assessment, Risk management, and Risk communication. Using the case with the foreign plant pathogen, Puccinia jaceae, under evaluation for biological control of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis, YST), approaches and...

  20. Collaborative effects-based planning using adversary models and target set optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pioch, Nicholas J.; Daniels, Troy; Pielech, Bradford

    2004-08-01

    The Strategy Development Tool (SDT), sponsored by AFRL-IFS, supports effects-based planning at multiple levels of war through three core capabilities: plan authoring, center of gravity (COG) modeling and analysis, and target system analysis. This paper describes recent extensions to all three of these capabilities. The extended plan authoring subsystem supports collaborative planning in which a user delegates elaboration of objectives to other registered users. A suite of collaboration tools allows planners to assign planning tasks, submit plan fragments, and review submitted plans, while a collaboration server transparently handles message routing and persistence. The COG modeling subsystem now includes an enhanced adversary modeling tool that provides a lightweight ontology for building temporal causal models relating enemy goals, beliefs, actions, and resources across multiple types of COGs. Users may overlay friendly interventions, analyze their impact on enemy COGs, and automatically incorporate the causal chains stemming from the best interventions into the current plan. Finally, the target system analysis subsystem has been extended with option generation tools that use network-based optimization algorithms to select candidate target set options to achieve specified effects.

  1. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chueng, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a risk management approach that allows planners to quantify the risk and efficiency tradeoff in the presence of uncertainties, and to make forward-looking choices in the development and execution of the plan. Demonstrate a planning and risk analysis framework that tightly integrates mathematical optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to solve complex problems.

  2. Risk Analysis and Uncertainty: Implications for Counselling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hassenzahl, David

    2004-01-01

    Over the past two decades, the risk analysis community has made substantial advances in understanding and describing uncertainty. Uncertainty is ubiquitous, complex, both quantitative and qualitative in nature, and often irreducible. Uncertainty thus creates a challenge when using risk analysis to evaluate the rationality of group and individual…

  3. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed...

  4. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed...

  5. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BENEFITS ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Among the important types of information considered in decision making at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the outputs of risk assessments and benefit-cost analyses. Risk assessments present estimates of the adverse consequences of exposure to environmental poll...

  6. Carbon Fiber Risk Analysis. [conference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    The scope and status of the effort to assess the risks associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers from civil aircraft is presented. Vulnerability of electrical and electronic equipment to carbon fibers, dispersal of carbon fibers, effectiveness of filtering systems, impact of fiber induced failures, and risk methodology are among the topics covered.

  7. Malaria's contribution to World War One - the unexpected adversary.

    PubMed

    Brabin, Bernard J

    2014-01-01

    Malaria in the First World War was an unexpected adversary. In 1914, the scientific community had access to new knowledge on transmission of malaria parasites and their control, but the military were unprepared, and underestimated the nature, magnitude and dispersion of this enemy. In summarizing available information for allied and axis military forces, this review contextualizes the challenge posed by malaria, because although data exist across historical, medical and military documents, descriptions are fragmented, often addressing context specific issues. Military malaria surveillance statistics have, therefore, been summarized for all theatres of the War, where available. These indicated that at least 1.5 million solders were infected, with case fatality ranging from 0.2 -5.0%. As more countries became engaged in the War, the problem grew in size, leading to major epidemics in Macedonia, Palestine, Mesopotamia and Italy. Trans-continental passages of parasites and human reservoirs of infection created ideal circumstances for parasite evolution. Details of these epidemics are reviewed, including major epidemics in England and Italy, which developed following home troop evacuations, and disruption of malaria control activities in Italy. Elsewhere, in sub-Saharan Africa many casualties resulted from high malaria exposure combined with minimal control efforts for soldiers considered semi-immune. Prevention activities eventually started but were initially poorly organized and dependent on local enthusiasm and initiative. Nets had to be designed for field use and were fundamental for personal protection. Multiple prevention approaches adopted in different settings and their relative utility are described. Clinical treatment primarily depended on quinine, although efficacy was poor as relapsing Plasmodium vivax and recrudescent Plasmodium falciparum infections were not distinguished and managed appropriately. Reasons for this are discussed and the clinical trial data

  8. Carbon Fiber Risk Analysis: Conclusions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    It was concluded that preliminary estimates indicate that the public risk due to accidental release of carbon fiber from air transport aircraft is small. It was also concluded that further work is required to increase confidence in these estimates.

  9. Bridging the two cultures of risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Jasanoff, S. )

    1993-04-01

    During the past 15 years, risk analysis has come of age as an interdisciplinary field of remarkable breadth, nurturing connections among fields as diverse as mathematics, biostatistics, toxicology, and engineering on one hand, and law, psychology, sociology, and economics on the other hand. In this editorial, the author addresses the question: What has the presence of social scientists in the network meant to the substantive development of the field of risk analysis The answers offered here discuss the substantial progress in bridging the two cultures of risk analysis. Emphasis is made of the continual need for monitoring risk analysis. Topics include: the micro-worlds of risk assessment; constraining assumptions; and exchange programs. 14 refs.

  10. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    SciTech Connect

    Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.; Sanzo, D.L.

    1997-08-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.

  11. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  12. Risk analysis of computer system designs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vallone, A.

    1981-01-01

    Adverse events during implementation can affect final capabilities, schedule and cost of a computer system even though the system was accurately designed and evaluated. Risk analysis enables the manager to forecast the impact of those events and to timely ask for design revisions or contingency plans before making any decision. This paper presents a structured procedure for an effective risk analysis. The procedure identifies the required activities, separates subjective assessments from objective evaluations, and defines a risk measure to determine the analysis results. The procedure is consistent with the system design evaluation and enables a meaningful comparison among alternative designs.

  13. Are Forensic Experts Already Biased before Adversarial Legal Parties Hire Them?

    PubMed

    Neal, Tess M S

    2016-01-01

    This survey of 206 forensic psychologists tested the "filtering" effects of preexisting expert attitudes in adversarial proceedings. Results confirmed the hypothesis that evaluator attitudes toward capital punishment influence willingness to accept capital case referrals from particular adversarial parties. Stronger death penalty opposition was associated with higher willingness to conduct evaluations for the defense and higher likelihood of rejecting referrals from all sources. Conversely, stronger support was associated with higher willingness to be involved in capital cases generally, regardless of referral source. The findings raise the specter of skewed evaluator involvement in capital evaluations, where evaluators willing to do capital casework may have stronger capital punishment support than evaluators who opt out, and evaluators with strong opposition may work selectively for the defense. The results may provide a partial explanation for the "allegiance effect" in adversarial legal settings such that preexisting attitudes may contribute to partisan participation through a self-selection process. PMID:27124416

  14. Are Forensic Experts Already Biased before Adversarial Legal Parties Hire Them?

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    This survey of 206 forensic psychologists tested the “filtering” effects of preexisting expert attitudes in adversarial proceedings. Results confirmed the hypothesis that evaluator attitudes toward capital punishment influence willingness to accept capital case referrals from particular adversarial parties. Stronger death penalty opposition was associated with higher willingness to conduct evaluations for the defense and higher likelihood of rejecting referrals from all sources. Conversely, stronger support was associated with higher willingness to be involved in capital cases generally, regardless of referral source. The findings raise the specter of skewed evaluator involvement in capital evaluations, where evaluators willing to do capital casework may have stronger capital punishment support than evaluators who opt out, and evaluators with strong opposition may work selectively for the defense. The results may provide a partial explanation for the “allegiance effect” in adversarial legal settings such that preexisting attitudes may contribute to partisan participation through a self-selection process. PMID:27124416

  15. Criminal defectors lead to the emergence of cooperation in an experimental, adversarial game.

    PubMed

    D'Orsogna, Maria R; Kendall, Ryan; McBride, Michael; Short, Martin B

    2013-01-01

    While the evolution of cooperation has been widely studied, little attention has been devoted to adversarial settings wherein one actor can directly harm another. Recent theoretical work addresses this issue, introducing an adversarial game in which the emergence of cooperation is heavily reliant on the presence of "Informants," actors who defect at first-order by harming others, but who cooperate at second-order by punishing other defectors. We experimentally study this adversarial environment in the laboratory with human subjects to test whether Informants are indeed critical for the emergence of cooperation. We find in these experiments that, even more so than predicted by theory, Informants are crucial for the emergence and sustenance of a high cooperation state. A key lesson is that successfully reaching and maintaining a low defection society may require the cultivation of criminals who will also aid in the punishment of others. PMID:23630591

  16. Criminal Defectors Lead to the Emergence of Cooperation in an Experimental, Adversarial Game

    PubMed Central

    D'Orsogna, Maria R.; Kendall, Ryan; McBride, Michael; Short, Martin B.

    2013-01-01

    While the evolution of cooperation has been widely studied, little attention has been devoted to adversarial settings wherein one actor can directly harm another. Recent theoretical work addresses this issue, introducing an adversarial game in which the emergence of cooperation is heavily reliant on the presence of “Informants,” actors who defect at first-order by harming others, but who cooperate at second-order by punishing other defectors. We experimentally study this adversarial environment in the laboratory with human subjects to test whether Informants are indeed critical for the emergence of cooperation. We find in these experiments that, even more so than predicted by theory, Informants are crucial for the emergence and sustenance of a high cooperation state. A key lesson is that successfully reaching and maintaining a low defection society may require the cultivation of criminals who will also aid in the punishment of others. PMID:23630591

  17. DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT ENDPOINTS FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk analyses, both human health and ecological, will be important factors in determining which DOE sites should be cleaned up and in deciding if acceptable performance standards have been met. Risk analysis procedures for humans use the individual as the 'unit' of observation, a...

  18. CUMULATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cumulative Risk Analysis for Organophosphorus Pesticides
    R. Woodrow Setzer, Jr. NHEERL MD-74, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711

    The US EPA has recently completed a risk assessment of the effects of exposure to 33 organophosphorous pesticides (OPs) through the diet, water, and resi...

  19. Risk analysis approach. [of carbon fiber release

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    The assessment of the carbon fiber hazard is outlined. Program objectives, requirements of the risk analysis, and elements associated with the physical phenomena of the accidental release are described.

  20. Risk analysis in bioequivalence and biowaiver decisions.

    PubMed

    Kubbinga, Marlies; Langguth, Peter; Barends, Dirk

    2013-07-01

    This article evaluates the current biowaiver guidance documents published by the FDA, EU and WHO from a risk based perspective. The authors introduce the use of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk calculation tool to show that current regulatory documents implicitly limit the risk for bioinequivalence after granting a biowaiver by reduction of the incidence, improving the detection and limiting the severity of any unforeseen bioinequivalent product. In addition, the authors use the risk calculation to expose yet unexplored options for future extension of comparative in vitro tools for biowaivers. PMID:23280474

  1. RISK ANALYSIS, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE: GETTING MORE FROM OUR DATA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression are common statistical techniques used to analyze agronomic experimental data and determine significant differences among yields due to treatments or other experimental factors. Risk analysis provides an alternate and complimentary examination of the same...

  2. Failure risk assessment by analysis and testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, N.; Ebbeler, D.; Creager, M.

    1992-01-01

    The sources of information on which to base an evaluation of reliability or failure risk of an aerospace flight system are (1) experience from tests and flights and (2) engineering analysis. It is rarely feasible to establish high reliability at high confidence by testing aerospace systems or components. Moreover, failure prediction by conventional, deterministic methods of engineering analysis can become arbitrary and subject to serious misinterpretation when uncertain or approximate information is used to establish analysis parameter values and to calibrate the accuracy of engineering models. The limitations of testing to evaluate failure risk are discussed, and a statistical approach which incorporates both engineering analysis and testing is presented.

  3. Fuzzy risk analysis for nuclear safeguards

    SciTech Connect

    Zardecki, A.

    1993-05-01

    Analysis of a safeguards system, based on the notion of fuzzy sets and linguistic variables, concerns such as complexity and inherent imprecision in estimating the possibility of loss or compromise. The automated risk analysis allows the risk to be determined for an entire system based on estimates for lowest level components and the component proportion. In addition, for each component (asset) the most effective combination of protection mechanisms against a given set of threats is determined. A distinction between bar and featured risk is made.

  4. Fuzzy risk analysis for nuclear safeguards

    SciTech Connect

    Zardecki, A.

    1993-01-01

    Analysis of a safeguards system, based on the notion of fuzzy sets and linguistic variables, concerns such as complexity and inherent imprecision in estimating the possibility of loss or compromise. The automated risk analysis allows the risk to be determined for an entire system based on estimates for lowest level components and the component proportion. In addition, for each component (asset) the most effective combination of protection mechanisms against a given set of threats is determined. A distinction between bar and featured risk is made.

  5. Using Frankencerts for Automated Adversarial Testing of Certificate Validation in SSL/TLS Implementations.

    PubMed

    Brubaker, Chad; Jana, Suman; Ray, Baishakhi; Khurshid, Sarfraz; Shmatikov, Vitaly

    2014-01-01

    Modern network security rests on the Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) and Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocols. Distributed systems, mobile and desktop applications, embedded devices, and all of secure Web rely on SSL/TLS for protection against network attacks. This protection critically depends on whether SSL/TLS clients correctly validate X.509 certificates presented by servers during the SSL/TLS handshake protocol. We design, implement, and apply the first methodology for large-scale testing of certificate validation logic in SSL/TLS implementations. Our first ingredient is "frankencerts," synthetic certificates that are randomly mutated from parts of real certificates and thus include unusual combinations of extensions and constraints. Our second ingredient is differential testing: if one SSL/TLS implementation accepts a certificate while another rejects the same certificate, we use the discrepancy as an oracle for finding flaws in individual implementations. Differential testing with frankencerts uncovered 208 discrepancies between popular SSL/TLS implementations such as OpenSSL, NSS, CyaSSL, GnuTLS, PolarSSL, MatrixSSL, etc. Many of them are caused by serious security vulnerabilities. For example, any server with a valid X.509 version 1 certificate can act as a rogue certificate authority and issue fake certificates for any domain, enabling man-in-the-middle attacks against MatrixSSL and GnuTLS. Several implementations also accept certificate authorities created by unauthorized issuers, as well as certificates not intended for server authentication. We also found serious vulnerabilities in how users are warned about certificate validation errors. When presented with an expired, self-signed certificate, NSS, Safari, and Chrome (on Linux) report that the certificate has expired-a low-risk, often ignored error-but not that the connection is insecure against a man-in-the-middle attack. These results demonstrate that automated adversarial testing with frankencerts

  6. Using Frankencerts for Automated Adversarial Testing of Certificate Validation in SSL/TLS Implementations

    PubMed Central

    Brubaker, Chad; Jana, Suman; Ray, Baishakhi; Khurshid, Sarfraz; Shmatikov, Vitaly

    2014-01-01

    Modern network security rests on the Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) and Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocols. Distributed systems, mobile and desktop applications, embedded devices, and all of secure Web rely on SSL/TLS for protection against network attacks. This protection critically depends on whether SSL/TLS clients correctly validate X.509 certificates presented by servers during the SSL/TLS handshake protocol. We design, implement, and apply the first methodology for large-scale testing of certificate validation logic in SSL/TLS implementations. Our first ingredient is “frankencerts,” synthetic certificates that are randomly mutated from parts of real certificates and thus include unusual combinations of extensions and constraints. Our second ingredient is differential testing: if one SSL/TLS implementation accepts a certificate while another rejects the same certificate, we use the discrepancy as an oracle for finding flaws in individual implementations. Differential testing with frankencerts uncovered 208 discrepancies between popular SSL/TLS implementations such as OpenSSL, NSS, CyaSSL, GnuTLS, PolarSSL, MatrixSSL, etc. Many of them are caused by serious security vulnerabilities. For example, any server with a valid X.509 version 1 certificate can act as a rogue certificate authority and issue fake certificates for any domain, enabling man-in-the-middle attacks against MatrixSSL and GnuTLS. Several implementations also accept certificate authorities created by unauthorized issuers, as well as certificates not intended for server authentication. We also found serious vulnerabilities in how users are warned about certificate validation errors. When presented with an expired, self-signed certificate, NSS, Safari, and Chrome (on Linux) report that the certificate has expired—a low-risk, often ignored error—but not that the connection is insecure against a man-in-the-middle attack. These results demonstrate that automated adversarial testing with

  7. Starlink corn: a risk analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Bucchini, Luca; Goldman, Lynn R

    2002-01-01

    Modern biotechnology has dramatically increased our ability to alter the agronomic traits of plants. Among the novel traits that biotechnology has made available, an important group includes Bacillus thuringiensis-derived insect resistance. This technology has been applied to potatoes, cotton, and corn. Benefits of Bt crops, and biotechnology generally, can be realized only if risks are assessed and managed properly. The case of Starlink corn, a plant modified with a gene that encodes the Bt protein Cry9c, was a severe test of U.S. regulatory agencies. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency had restricted its use to animal feed due to concern about the potential for allergenicity. However, Starlink corn was later found throughout the human food supply, resulting in food recalls by the Food and Drug Administration and significant disruption of the food supply. Here we examine the regulatory history of Starlink, the assessment framework employed by the U.S. government, assumptions and information gaps, and the key elements of government efforts to manage the product. We explore the impacts on regulations, science, and society and conclude that only significant advances in our understanding of food allergies and improvements in monitoring and enforcement will avoid similar events in the future. Specifically, we need to develop a stronger fundamental basis for predicting allergic sensitization and reactions if novel proteins are to be introduced in this fashion. Mechanisms are needed to assure that worker and community aeroallergen risks are considered. Requirements are needed for the development of valid assays so that enforcement and post market surveillance activities can be conducted. PMID:11781159

  8. Multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management.

    PubMed

    Hämäläinen, R P; Lindstedt, M R; Sinkko, K

    2000-08-01

    Radiation protection authorities have seen a potential for applying multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management and planning to deal with conflicting objectives, different parties involved, and uncertainties. This type of approach is expected to help in the following areas: to ensure that all relevant attributes are considered in decision making; to enhance communication between the concerned parties, including the public; and to provide a method for explicitly including risk analysis in the process. A multiattribute utility theory analysis was used to select a strategy for protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident. The value-focused approach and the use of a neutral facilitator were identified as being useful. PMID:11051070

  9. Managing Quality, Identity and Adversaries in Public Discourse with Machine Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brennan, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Automation can mitigate issues when scaling and managing quality and identity in public discourse on the web. Discourse needs to be curated and filtered. Anonymous speech has to be supported while handling adversaries. Reliance on human curators or analysts does not scale and content can be missed. These scaling and management issues include the…

  10. Fostering Non-Adversarial Family/School Relationships through the Evaluation Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weissmann, Lenore R.; Harding, Carol Gibb

    Traditionally, when an "outside evaluation" concerning a child's problems in school is sought by families, schools anticipate that the results will be reported in the context of an adversarial relationship, and their experiences have often borne out this expectation. A multidisciplinary Learning Evaluation Center (LEC) based within a university…

  11. News Media Adversary and Consensus Roles, and Legislator Use of News Media for Job Information.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riffe, Daniel

    A study examined how Alabama legislators' ratings of news media for job-relevant information correlate with their views on news media adversary and consensus agent roles. Eighty-two questionnaires (out of 140 mailed) were completed by Alabama state representatives and senators for a return rate of 59%. Results suggested that lawmakers who believe…

  12. Procedural Justice in Family Court: Does the Adversary Model Make Sense?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Melton, Gary B.; Lind, E. Allan

    1982-01-01

    Reviews research and theory on procedural justice concerning family disputes, and discusses existing proposals for reform of family court procedures. Holds that adversary proceedings in custody disputes may be more beneficial to older children and disputing parents than nonadversary procedures. Identifies areas for needed research in procedural…

  13. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  14. Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

    PubMed Central

    Bogen, Kenneth T.; Cullen, Alison C.; Frey, H. Christopher; Price, Paul S.

    2009-01-01

    This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts. PMID:19223660

  15. A risk analysis model for radioactive wastes.

    PubMed

    Külahcı, Fatih

    2011-07-15

    Hazardous wastes affect natural environmental systems to a significant extend, and therefore, it is necessary to control their harm through risk analysis. Herein, an effective risk methodology is proposed by considering their uncertain behaviors on stochastic, statistical and probabilistic bases. The basic element is attachment of a convenient probability distribution function (pdf) to a given waste quality measurement sequence. In this paper, (40)K contaminant measurements are adapted for risk assessment application after derivation of necessary fundamental formulations. The spatial contaminant distribution of (40)K is presented in the forms of maps and three-dimensional surfaces. PMID:21571428

  16. The development of human female competition: allies and adversaries

    PubMed Central

    Benenson, Joyce F.

    2013-01-01

    Throughout their lives, women provide for their own and their children's and grandchildren's needs and thus must minimize their risk of incurring physical harm. Alliances with individuals who will assist them in attaining these goals increase their probability of survival and reproductive success. High status in the community enhances access to physical resources and valuable allies. Kin, a mate, and affines share a mother's genetic interests, whereas unrelated women constitute primary competitors. From early childhood onwards, girls compete using strategies that minimize the risk of retaliation and reduce the strength of other girls. Girls’ competitive strategies include avoiding direct interference with another girl's goals, disguising competition, competing overtly only from a position of high status in the community, enforcing equality within the female community and socially excluding other girls. PMID:24167309

  17. Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Boenke, A

    2001-12-01

    The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here. PMID:11761126

  18. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  19. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  20. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  1. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  2. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  3. 14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... risk is minimal. (2) An applicant shall perform a risk analysis when a populated area is located...

  4. Tsunamis: Global Exposure and Local Risk Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Glimsdal, S.; Horspool, N.; Griffin, J.; Davies, G.; Frauenfelder, R.

    2014-12-01

    The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to a better understanding of the likelihood of tsunami occurrence and potential tsunami inundation, and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) was one direct result of this event. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN-ISDR) adopted HFA in January 2005 in order to reduce disaster risk. As an instrument to compare the risk due to different natural hazards, an integrated worldwide study was implemented and published in several Global Assessment Reports (GAR) by UN-ISDR. The results of the global earthquake induced tsunami hazard and exposure analysis for a return period of 500 years are presented. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods (PTHA) are used. The resulting hazard levels for both methods are compared quantitatively for selected areas. The comparison demonstrates that the analysis is rather rough, which is expected for a study aiming at average trends on a country level across the globe. It is shown that populous Asian countries account for the largest absolute number of people living in tsunami prone areas, more than 50% of the total exposed people live in Japan. Smaller nations like Macao and the Maldives are among the most exposed by population count. Exposed nuclear power plants are limited to Japan, China, India, Taiwan, and USA. On the contrary, a local tsunami vulnerability and risk analysis applies information on population, building types, infrastructure, inundation, flow depth for a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period combined with empirical data on tsunami damages and mortality. Results and validation of a GIS tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment model are presented. The GIS model is adapted for optimal use of data available for each study. Finally, the importance of including landslide sources in the tsunami analysis is also discussed.

  5. Risk analysis for confined space entries: Critical analysis of four tools applied to three risk scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burlet-Vienney, Damien; Chinniah, Yuvin; Bahloul, Ali; Roberge, Brigitte

    2016-06-01

    Investigation reports of fatal confined space accidents nearly always point to a problem of identifying or underestimating risks. This paper compares 4 different risk analysis tools developed for confined spaces by applying them to 3 hazardous scenarios. The tools were namely 1. a checklist without risk estimation (Tool A), 2. a checklist with a risk scale (Tool B), 3. a risk calculation without a formal hazard identification stage (Tool C), and 4. a questionnaire followed by a risk matrix (Tool D). Each tool's structure and practical application were studied. Tools A and B gave crude results comparable to those of more analytic tools in less time. Their main limitations were lack of contextual information for the identified hazards and greater dependency on the user's expertise and ability to tackle hazards of different nature. Tools C and D utilized more systematic approaches than tools A and B by supporting risk reduction based on the description of the risk factors. Tool D is distinctive because of 1. its comprehensive structure with respect to the steps suggested in risk management, 2. its dynamic approach to hazard identification, and 3. its use of data resulting from the risk analysis. PMID:26864350

  6. Low-thrust mission risk analysis.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yen, C. L.; Smith, D. B.

    1973-01-01

    A computerized multi-stage failure process simulation procedure is used to evaluate the risk in a solar electric space mission. The procedure uses currently available thrust-subsystem reliability data and performs approximate simulations of the thrust subsystem burn operation, the system failure processes, and the retargetting operations. The application of the method is used to assess the risks in carrying out a 1980 rendezvous mission to Comet Encke. Analysis of the results and evaluation of the effects of various risk factors on the mission show that system component failure rates is the limiting factor in attaining a high mission reliability. But it is also shown that a well-designed trajectory and system operation mode can be used effectively to partially compensate for unreliable thruster performance.

  7. Cooperation and punishment in an adversarial game: How defectors pave the way to a peaceful society

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Short, M. B.; Brantingham, P. J.; D'Orsogna, M. R.

    2010-12-01

    The evolution of human cooperation has been the subject of much research, especially within the framework of evolutionary public goods games, where several mechanisms have been proposed to account for persistent cooperation. Yet, in addressing this issue, little attention has been given to games of a more adversarial nature, in which defecting players, rather than simply free riding, actively seek to harm others. Here, we develop an adversarial evolutionary game using the specific example of criminal activity, recasting the familiar public goods strategies of punishers, cooperators, and defectors in this light. We then introduce a strategy—the informant—with no clear analog in public goods games and show that individuals employing this strategy are a key to the emergence of systems where cooperation dominates. We also find that a defection-dominated regime may be transitioned to one that is cooperation-dominated by converting an optimal number of players into informants. We discuss these findings, the role of informants, and possible intervention strategies in extreme adversarial societies, such as those marred by wars and insurgencies.

  8. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T; Rasmuson, D M

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  9. Risk and value analysis of SETI.

    PubMed

    Billingham, J

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking. PMID:11538075

  10. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  11. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  12. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  13. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  14. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  15. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert...

  16. Fire Risk Analysis for Armenian NPP Confinement

    SciTech Connect

    Poghosyan, Shahen; Malkhasyan, Albert; Bznuni, Surik; Amirjanyan, Armen

    2006-07-01

    Major fire occurred at Armenian NPP (ANPP) in October 1982 showed that fire-induced initiating events (IE) can have dominant contribution in overall risk of core damage. Probabilistic Safety Assessment study for fire-induced initiating events for ANPP was initiated in 2002. Analysis was performed for compartments fires in which could result in failure of components which are necessary for reactor cold shutdown. Analysis shows that main risk from fire at ANPP is conditioned by fire in cable tunnels 61-64. Meanwhile fire in confinement compartments don't have significant contribution to overall risk of core damage. The exception is so called 'confinement valves compartment' (room no.A-013/2) fire (more than 7.5% of CDF) in which fire could result in the loss of coolant accident with unavailability of primary makeup system, which directly leads to core damage. Detailed analysis of this problem that is common for typical WWER-440/230 reactors with no hermetic MCPs and recommendations for solution are presented in this paper. (authors)

  17. Landsafe: Landing Site Risk Analysis Software Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, R.; Bostelmann, J.; Cornet, Y.; Heipke, C.; Philippe, C.; Poncelet, N.; de Rosa, D.; Vandeloise, Y.

    2012-08-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe) is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs), hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  18. Analysis of exogenous components of mortality risks.

    PubMed

    Blinkin, V L

    1998-04-01

    A new technique for deriving exogenous components of mortality risks from national vital statistics has been developed. Each observed death rate Dij (where i corresponds to calendar time (year or interval of years) and j denotes the number of corresponding age group) was represented as Dij = Aj + BiCj, and unknown quantities Aj, Bi, and Cj were estimated by a special procedure using the least-squares principle. The coefficients of variation do not exceed 10%. It is shown that the term Aj can be interpreted as the endogenous and the second term BiCj as the exogenous components of the death rate. The aggregate of endogenous components Aj can be described by a regression function, corresponding to the Gompertz-Makeham law, A(tau) = gamma + beta x e alpha tau, where gamma, beta, and alpha are constants, tau is age, A(tau) [symbol: see text] tau = tau j identical to A(tau j) identical to Aj and tau j is the value of age tau in jth age group. The coefficients of variation for such a representation does not exceed 4%. An analysis of exogenous risk levels in the Moscow and Russian populations during 1980-1995 shows that since 1992 all components of exogenous risk in the Moscow population had been increasing up to 1994. The greatest contribution to the total level of exogenous risk was lethal diseases, and their death rate was 387 deaths per 100,000 persons in 1994, i.e., 61.9% of all deaths. The dynamics of exogenous mortality risk change during 1990-1994 in the Moscow population and in the Russian population without Moscow had been identical: the risk had been increasing and its value in the Russian population had been higher than that in the Moscow population. PMID:9637078

  19. Autonomous and cooperative multi-UAV guidance in adversarial environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zengin, Ugur

    The research presented in this dissertation is aimed at developing rule-based autonomous and cooperative guidance strategies for UAVs to perform missions such as path planning, target tracking and rendezvous while reducing their risk/threat exposure level, and avoiding threats and/or obstacles by utilizing measurement information provided by sensors. First, a mathematical formulation is developed to represent the area of operation that contains various types of threats, obstacles, and restricted areas, in a single framework. Once constructed, there will be no need to distinguish between threats, obstacles and restricted areas as the framework already contains the information on what needs to be avoided and the level of penalty for a given position in the area. This framework provides the mathematical foundation for the guidance strategies to make intelligent decisions during the execution of the mission and also provides scalar metrics to assess the performance of a guidance strategy in a given mission. The autonomous guidance strategies are developed by using a rule-based expert system approach with the requirements of completing assigned mission or task, avoiding obstacle/restricted-areas, minimizing threat exposure level, considering the dynamic and communication constraints of the UAVs and avoiding collision. All these requirements and objectives are quantified and prioritized to facilitate the development of guidance algorithms that can be executed in real-time. The strategies consist of a set of "decision states", which contain rules to determine how the host UAV should move by generating heading and speed signals. Cooperation of multiple UAVs is modeled by minimizing a cost function, which is constructed based on the level of threat exposure for each UAV and distance of each UAV relative to the target. This improves the performance of the system in the terms of increasing the total area of coverage of the sensors onboard the UAVs, increasing the flexibility

  20. Adversary phase change detection using SOMs and text data.

    SciTech Connect

    Speed, Ann Elizabeth; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Warrender, Christina E.

    2010-05-01

    In this work, we developed a self-organizing map (SOM) technique for using web-based text analysis to forecast when a group is undergoing a phase change. By 'phase change', we mean that an organization has fundamentally shifted attitudes or behaviors. For instance, when ice melts into water, the characteristics of the substance change. A formerly peaceful group may suddenly adopt violence, or a violent organization may unexpectedly agree to a ceasefire. SOM techniques were used to analyze text obtained from organization postings on the world-wide web. Results suggest it may be possible to forecast phase changes, and determine if an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.

  1. [Beliefs about the adversary, political violence and peace processes].

    PubMed

    Borja, Henry; Barreto, Idaly; Alzate, Mónica; Sabucedo, José Manuel; López López, Wilson

    2009-11-01

    The aim of this study is to test in a real political context whether or not a change in the beliefs which were fueling the political violence in question is required during the advent of a peace process. Two hypothesis are considered: a) in the case of these beliefs not being modified, there will be difficulties to reach an atmosphere of trust between both parts and the process will fail, and b) if this happens, the groups will develop more extreme beliefs against the opponent. The results obtained through a textual analysis support both hypotheses. During the failure of the peace process, neither the strategy of the delegitimization of the opponent nor the identities in conflict were modified. Consequently, when the process failed, responsibility for this failure was attributed to the opponent, and, at the same time, delegitimization against the opponent intensified. PMID:19861109

  2. Conceptual issues with risk analysis in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolet, Pierrick; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Lévy, Sébastien

    2015-04-01

    Risk analysis is a tricky procedure, where one can easily make mistakes. Indeed, although risk equations are rather general, transferring a methodology to another context or hazard type can often lead to inaccuracies or even significant errors. To illustrate this, common mistakes made with the Swiss methodology are presented, together with possible solutions. This includes the following: Risk analysis for moving objects only takes the process dimension into account (e.g. the length of a road section potentially affected by a landslide), but not the object dimension (e.g. the cars length). This is a fair simplification as long as the object dimension is considerably smaller than the process dimension. However, when the object is large compared to the process (e.g. rockfalls on a train), the results will be wrong. This problem can be illustrated by considering two blocs. According to this methodology a 1 m diameter bloc will be twice more susceptible to reach a train than a 50 cm bloc. This is obviously not correct. When it comes to rockfalls risk analysis on roads or railway found in the literature, the bloc dimension is usually neglected, in favour of the object dimension, which is a fair assumption in this context. However, it is possible to include both dimensions by using the sum of the lengths instead of one of them. Risk analysis is usually performed using 3 different scenarios, for 3 different ranges of return periods, namely 1-30, 30-100 and 100-300 years. In order to be conservative, the operator commonly considers the magnitude of the worst event that happens with a return period included between the class bounds, which means that the operator evaluates the magnitude reached or overpassed with a return period of 30, 100 and 300 years respectively. Then, since the magnitude corresponds to the upper bounds of the classes, risk is calculated using the frequency corresponding to these return periods and not to the middle of the class (and also subtracting the

  3. Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

    PubMed

    Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. PMID:25039254

  4. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    SciTech Connect

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R. ); Englehart, D.R.W. )

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value.

  5. FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, Robin K.

    1976-01-01

    A program for seismic risk analysis is described which combines generality of application, efficiency and accuracy of operation, and the advantage of small storage requirements. The theoretical basis for the program is first reviewed, and the computational algorithms used to apply this theory are described. The information required for running the program is listed. Published attenuation functions describing the variation with earthquake magnitude and distance of expected values for various ground motion parameters are summarized for reference by the program user. Finally, suggestions for use of the program are made, an example problem is described (along with example problem input and output) and the program is listed.

  6. Risk Analysis Related to Quality Management Principles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vykydal, David; Halfarová, Petra; Nenadál, Jaroslav; Plura, Jiří; Hekelová, Edita

    2012-12-01

    Efficient and effective implementation of quality management principles asks for a responsible approach from top managers' perspectives. A study of the current state of affairs in Czech organizations discovers a lot of shortcomings in this field that can be changed to vary managerial risks. The article identifies and analyses some of them and gives short guidance for appropriate treatment. Text of the article reflects the authors' experience as well as knowledge obtained from the systematic analysis of industrial companies' environments.

  7. Topographic Avalanche Risk: DEM Sensitivity Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nazarkulova, Ainura; Strobl, Josef

    2015-04-01

    GIS-based models are frequently used to assess the risk and trigger probabilities of (snow) avalanche releases, based on parameters and geomorphometric derivatives like elevation, exposure, slope, proximity to ridges and local relief energy. Numerous models, and model-based specific applications and project results have been published based on a variety of approaches and parametrizations as well as calibrations. Digital Elevation Models (DEM) come with many different resolution (scale) and quality (accuracy) properties, some of these resulting from sensor characteristics and DEM generation algorithms, others from different DEM processing workflows and analysis strategies. This paper explores the impact of using different types and characteristics of DEMs for avalanche risk modeling approaches, and aims at establishing a framework for assessing the uncertainty of results. The research question is derived from simply demonstrating the differences in release risk areas and intensities by applying identical models to DEMs with different properties, and then extending this into a broader sensitivity analysis. For the quantification and calibration of uncertainty parameters different metrics are established, based on simple value ranges, probabilities, as well as fuzzy expressions and fractal metrics. As a specific approach the work on DEM resolution-dependent 'slope spectra' is being considered and linked with the specific application of geomorphometry-base risk assessment. For the purpose of this study focusing on DEM characteristics, factors like land cover, meteorological recordings and snowpack structure and transformation are kept constant, i.e. not considered explicitly. Key aims of the research presented here are the development of a multi-resolution and multi-scale framework supporting the consistent combination of large area basic risk assessment with local mitigation-oriented studies, and the transferability of the latter into areas without availability of

  8. System Analysis and Risk Assessment System.

    2000-11-20

    Version 00 SARA4.16 is a program that allows the user to review the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and to perform limited sensitivity analysis on these results. This tool is intended to be used by a less technical oriented user and does not require the level of understanding of PRA concepts required by a full PRA analysis tool. With this program a user can review the information generated by a PRA analyst andmore » compare the results to those generated by making limited modifications to the data in the PRA. Also included in this program is the ability to graphically display the information stored in the database. This information includes event trees, fault trees, P&IDs and uncertainty distributions. SARA 4.16 is incorporated in the SAPHIRE 5.0 code package.« less

  9. Game Theoretic Evaluation of Threat Detection Problems-The Central Role of the Adversary

    SciTech Connect

    Heasler, Patrick G.; Wood, Thomas W.; Reichmuth, Barbara A.

    2007-01-01

    A wide variety of security problems hinge on the detection of threats and discrimination of threats from innocuous objects. The theory that frames these problems is common among medical diagnostics, radar and sonar imaging, and detection of radiological, chemical, and biological agents. In many of these problems, the nature of the threat is subject to control by a malicious adversary, and the choice of a reference (or "design basis") threat is a very diffcult, and often intractable, aspect of the problem. It is this class of problems that this report considers.

  10. NUCRAC: a code for the estimation of adversary-action consequences in the nuclear power fuel cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Kaul, D.C.; Ritzman, R.L.; Roberts, J.A.; Sachs, E.S.

    1986-02-01

    A program sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and designed to estimate the potential consequences of adversary actions in the nuclear power fuel cycle has been completed. So that the results of this consequence analysis would be comparable to that of the reactor Safety Study (RSS), the methodology described in the RSS and implemented in the Calculation of Reactor Accident Consequences (CRAC) code served as the baseline for consequence evaluation in this study. Four portions of the RSS methodology were modified for use in this study: the atmospheric dispersion model, the inhalation dose factors, the criterion for early mortality from lung dose, and the model for chronic pathways to man. Implementation of these modifications to the CRAC code resulted in the preparation and application of a revised code termed NUCRAC. These modifications are described in detail. Detailed instructions for the operation of NUCRAC are presented in the form of a user-manual. Inputs and outputs for an example calculation are also presented.

  11. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  12. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  13. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  14. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  15. OVERVIEW: MYCOTOXIN RISK ANALYSIS IN THE USA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The objective of the risk assessment process is to provide the basis for decisions that will allow successful management of the risk. Poor risk management decisions that result from inadequate risk assessment can be enormousely costly, both economically and in terms of human or animal health. Accco...

  16. RETHINKING THE ROLE OF SMALL-GROUP COLLABORATORS AND ADVERSARIES IN THE LONDON KLEINIAN DEVELOPMENT (1914-1968).

    PubMed

    Aguayo, Joseph; Regeczkey, Agnes

    2016-07-01

    The authors historically situate the London Kleinian development in terms of the small-group collaborations and adversaries that arose during the course of Melanie Klein's career. Some collaborations later became personally adversarial (e.g., those Klein had with Glover and Schmideberg); other adversarial relationships forever remained that way (with A. Freud); while still other long-term collaborations became theoretically contentious (such as with Winnicott and Heimann). After the Controversial Discussions in 1944, Klein marginalized one group of supporters (Heimann, Winnicott, and Riviere) in favor of another group (Rosenfeld, Segal, and Bion). After Klein's death in 1960, Bion maintained loyalty to Klein's ideas while quietly distancing his work from the London Klein group, immigrating to the United States in 1968. PMID:27428585

  17. Scientists urge DHS to improve Bioterrorism Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Parnell, Gregory S; Borio, Luciana L; Brown, Gerald G; Banks, David; Wilson, Alyson G

    2008-12-01

    In 2006, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) completed its first Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA), intended to be the foundation for DHS's subsequent biennial risk assessments mandated by Homeland Security Presidential Directive 10 (HSPD-10). At the request of DHS, the National Research Council established the Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis to provide an independent, scientific peer review of the BTRA. The Committee found a number of shortcomings in the BTRA, including a failure to consider terrorists as intelligent adversaries in their models, unnecessary complexity in threat and consequence modeling and simulations, and a lack of focus on risk management. The Committee unanimously concluded that an improved BTRA is needed to provide a more credible foundation for risk-informed decision making. PMID:18976117

  18. [Irrationality and risk--a problem analysis].

    PubMed

    Bergler, R

    1995-04-01

    The way one experiences risks and one's risk behaviour is not centrally the result of rational considerations and decisions. Contradictions and incompatibilities can be proved empirically: (1) General paranoiac hysterical fear of risks, (2) complete repression of health risks, (3) unsureness and inability in dealing with risks, (4) prejudice against risks, (5) admiring risk behaviour, (6) seeking dangerous ways to test one's own limits, (7) readiness for aggression by not subjectively being able to control the risk, (8) naively assessing a risk positively thus intensifying pleasurable sensation, (9) increased preparedness to take risks in groups, (10) increased preparedness to take risk in anonymity, (11) accepting risks as a creative challenge for achievement motivation, (12) loss of innovation when avoiding risks. The awareness and assessment of risk factors is dependent on (1) personality factors (achievement-motivated persons experience risk as a creative challenge; risk behaviour being a variation in stimulus and exploration of one's environment), (2) the social back-ground (booster function), (3) the culture-related assessment of being able to control risks and (4) age (youthful risk behaviour being a way of coping with developmental exercises, e.g. purposely breaking parent's rules, provocatively demonstrating adult behaviour, a means to solve frustrating performance failures, advantages through social acceptance). The way one copes with risk factors is based on subjective estimation of risk; this assessment is made anew for each area of behaviour according to the specific situation. Making a decision and acting upon it is the result of simultaneously assessing the possible psychological benefit-cost factors of taking risks. The extent, to which the threat of risk factors is felt, depends on the importance one attaches to certain needs and benefits of quality of life and, in addition to this, what the subjective probabilities are that one is likely to be

  19. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups. PMID:23160540

  20. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    SciTech Connect

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  1. Evaluating the Risks of Clinical Research: Direct Comparative Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S.; Wendler, David

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Objectives: Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. Methods: This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Results: Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Conclusions: Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about

  2. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  3. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  4. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P.

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance. PMID:25136688

  5. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    PubMed

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance. PMID:25136688

  6. Insider adversary study for the Office of Safeguards and Security: US Department of Energy. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Sutton, R.H.

    1983-06-24

    This study provides the Department of Energy (DOE) with a comprehensive description of insider adversary activity at its nuclear facilities and those nuclear facilities operated for DOE by its contractors. The description is based on DOE's violation records from 1965 to 1982. Files were reviewed and data were collected from DOE Headquarters, field offices, and selected laboratory and contractor records. The quality and completeness of the study's data are somewhat limited due to inconsistencies in the organization, content, and availability of Headquarters and field office case reports. File organization and retention periods as well as reporting standards vary among DOE offices, facilities, and contractors. The range of crime reviewed was extensive and included major as well as minor levels of crimes. The criterion used for inclusion of crimes in this study was that they were committed by an insider who exhibited wrongful intent in the commission of the crime.

  7. When does familiarity promote versus undermine interpersonal attraction? A proposed integrative model from erstwhile adversaries.

    PubMed

    Finkel, Eli J; Norton, Michael I; Reis, Harry T; Ariely, Dan; Caprariello, Peter A; Eastwick, Paul W; Frost, Jeana H; Maniaci, Michael R

    2015-01-01

    This article began as an adversarial collaboration between two groups of researchers with competing views on a longstanding question: Does familiarity promote or undermine interpersonal attraction? As we explored our respective positions, it became clear that the limitations of our conceptualizations of the familiarity-attraction link, as well as the limitations of prior research, were masking a set of higher order principles capable of integrating these diverse conceptualizations. This realization led us to adopt a broader perspective, which focuses on three distinct relationship stages-awareness, surface contact, and mutuality-and suggests that the influence of familiarity on attraction depends on both the nature and the stage of the relationship between perceivers and targets. This article introduces the framework that emerged from our discussions and suggests directions for research to investigate its validity. PMID:25910379

  8. Institutionalizing dissent: a proposal for an adversarial system of pharmaceutical research.

    PubMed

    Biddle, Justin

    2013-12-01

    There are serious problems with the way in which pharmaceutical research is currently practiced, many of which can be traced to the influence of commercial interests on research. One of the most significant is inadequate dissent, or organized skepticism. In order to ameliorate this problem, I develop a proposal that I call the "Adversarial Proceedings for the Evaluation of Pharmaceuticals," to be instituted within a regulatory agency such as the Food and Drug Administration for the evaluation of controversial new drugs and controversial drugs already in the market. This proposal is an organizational one based upon the "science court" proposal by Arthur Kantrowitz in the 1960s and 1970s. The primary benefit of this system is its ability to institutionalize dissent, thereby ensuring that one set of interests does not dominate all others. PMID:24552075

  9. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260.17 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are...

  10. ANALYSIS OF LAMB MORTALITY USING COMPETING RISKS

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A competing risks model was used to describe lamb mortality up to four weeks of age in a composite sheep flock with 8,642 lamb records. Discrete survival methods were applied using sire and animal models. The results indicated that substantial variation exists in the risk of lambs dying from diffe...

  11. Virtues and Limitations of Risk Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weatherwax, Robert K.

    1975-01-01

    After summarizing the Rasmussion Report, the author reviews the probabilistic portion of the report from the perspectives of engineering utility and risk assessment uncertainty. The author shows that the report may represent a significant step forward in the assurance of reactor safety and an imperfect measure of actual reactor risk. (BT)

  12. Risk analysis for worker exposure to benzene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallenbeck, William H.; Flowers, Roxanne E.

    1992-05-01

    Cancer risk factors (characterized by route, dose, dose rate per kilogram, fraction of lifetime exposed, species, and sex) were derived for workers exposed to benzene via inhalation or ingestion. Exposure at the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) permissible exposure limit (PEL) and at leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites were evaluated. At the current PEL of 1 ppm, the theoretical lifetime excess risk of cancer from benzene inhalation is ten per 1000. The theoretical lifetime excess risk for worker inhalation exposure at LUST sites ranged from 10 to 40 per 1000. These results indicate that personal protection should be required. The theoretical lifetime excess risk due to soil ingestion is five to seven orders of magnitude less than the inhalation risks.

  13. 48 CFR 252.239-7018 - Supply chain risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Supply chain risk. 252.239... Clauses 252.239-7018 Supply chain risk. As prescribed in 239.7306(b), use the following clause: Supply... contractor incidental to a contract. Supply chain risk means the risk that an adversary may...

  14. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Bigelow, Tim S

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  15. Risk Analysis and the Construction of News.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilkins, Lee; Patterson, Philip

    1987-01-01

    Explains that the news media commit fundamental errors of attribution in covering risk situations by (1) treating them as novelties, (2) failing to analyze the entire system, and (3) using insufficiently analytical language. (NKA)

  16. Fire behavior and risk analysis in spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Friedman, Robert; Sacksteder, Kurt R.

    1988-01-01

    Practical risk management for present and future spacecraft, including space stations, involves the optimization of residual risks balanced by the spacecraft operational, technological, and economic limitations. Spacecraft fire safety is approached through three strategies, in order of risk: (1) control of fire-causing elements, through exclusion of flammable materials for example; (2) response to incipient fires through detection and alarm; and (3) recovery of normal conditions through extinguishment and cleanup. Present understanding of combustion in low gravity is that, compared to normal gravity behavior, fire hazards may be reduced by the absence of buoyant gas flows yet at the same time increased by ventilation flows and hot particle expulsion. This paper discusses the application of low-gravity combustion knowledge and appropriate aircraft analogies to fire detection, fire fighting, and fire-safety decisions for eventual fire-risk management and optimization in spacecraft.

  17. The role of risk analysis in understanding bioterrorism.

    PubMed

    Haas, Charles N

    2002-08-01

    Recent events have made the domestic risk from bioterrorism more tangible. The risk management process so far, however, has not benefited from many of the contributions that analysts, communicators, and managers can make to the public discourse. Risk professionals can contribute much to the understanding of and solutions to bioterrorist events and threats. This article will provide an overview of the bioterrorism problem and outline a number of areas to which members of the Society for Risk Analysis, and other risk practitioners, could usefully contribute. PMID:12224741

  18. Risk analysis of an RTG on the Space Shuttle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frank, Michael V.

    1991-01-01

    As part of the effort to review the Ulysses Final Safety Analysis Report and to understand the risk of plutonium release from the Ulysses spacecraft General Purpose Heat Source-Radioisotope Thermal Generator (GPHS-RTG), the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP) and the author performed an integrated, quantitative analysis of the uncertainties of the calculated risk of plutonium release from Ulysses. Using state-of-the-art probabilistic risk assessment technology, the uncertainty analysis accounted for both variability and uncertainty of the key parameters of the risk analysis. The results show tht INSRP had high confidence that risk of fatal cancers from potential plutonium release associated with calculated launch and deployment accident scenarios is low.

  19. Risk analysis of Finnish peacekeeping in Kosovo.

    PubMed

    Lehtomäki, Kyösti; Pääkkönen, Rauno J; Rantanen, Jorma

    2005-04-01

    The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future. PMID:15876212

  20. Oil shale health and environmental risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Gratt, L.B.

    1983-04-01

    The potential human health and environmental risks of hypothetical one-million-barrels-per-day oil shale industry have been analyzed to serve as an aid in the formulation and management of a program of environmental research. The largest uncertainties for expected fatalities are in the public sector from air pollutants although the occupational sector is estimated to have 60% more expected fatalities than the public sector. Occupational safety and illness have been analyzed for the oil shale fuel cycle from extraction to delivery of products for end use. Pneumoconiosis from the dust environment is the worker disease resulting in the greatest number of fatalities, followed by chronic bronchitis, internal cancer, and skin cancers, respectively. Research recommendations are presented for reducing the uncertainties in the risks analyzed and to fill data gaps to estimate other risks.

  1. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    SciTech Connect

    Bogen, K T

    2005-11-18

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.

  2. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  3. Risk analysis: Wet weather flows in S.E. Michigan

    SciTech Connect

    Bulkley, J.W.

    1994-12-31

    Institutional aspects of risk analysis are examined in two separate activities in the state of Michigan. The state of Michigan`s relative risk project, patterned after the US EPA`s risk reduction report, provided an institutional mechanism to rank environmental issues facing the state of Michigan in terms of relative risk in 1991--92. This project identified 24 important environmental issues facing the state. These were categorized into four primary groups ranging from highest priority to medium priority. Seventeen of the identified issues are directly related to water resources, including water pollution in the Great Lakes. Combined sewer overflows are identified as the primary focus remaining for point-source discharges. The second institutional aspect of risk analysis considered in this paper is the development of a demonstration program for combined sewer overflow in the Rouge River Basin, which will help establish the trade-off between increased and risk reduction from such overflows.

  4. Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moynihan, Gary P.; Fonseca, Daniel J.; Ray, Paul S.

    2010-01-01

    A conceptual design has been announced of an expert-system computer program, and the development of a prototype of the program, intended for use as a project-management tool. The program integrates schedule and risk data for the purpose of determining the schedule applications of safety risks and, somewhat conversely, the effects of changes in schedules on changes on safety. It is noted that the design has been delivered to a NASA client and that it is planned to disclose the design in a conference presentation.

  5. Latent Model Analysis of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors among High-Risk Minority Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.

    2007-01-01

    Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV risk profile using a latent model analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a risk and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…

  6. Analysis of driver casualty risk for different work zone types.

    PubMed

    Weng, Jinxian; Meng, Qiang

    2011-09-01

    Using driver casualty data from the Fatality Analysis Report System, this study examines driver casualty risk and investigates the risk contributing factors in the construction, maintenance and utility work zones. The multiple t-tests results show that the driver casualty risk is statistically different depending on the work zone type. Moreover, construction work zones have the largest driver casualty risk, followed by maintenance and utility work zones. Three separate logistic regression models are developed to predict driver casualty risk for the three work zone types because of their unique features. Finally, the effects of risk factors on driver casualty risk for each work zone type are examined and compared. For all three work zone types, five significant risk factors including road alignment, truck involvement, most harmful event, vehicle age and notification time are associated with increased driver casualty risk while traffic control devices and restraint use are associated with reduced driver casualty risk. However, one finding is that three risk factors (light condition, gender and day of week) exhibit opposing effects on the driver casualty risk in different types of work zones. This may largely be due to different work zone features and driver behavior in different types of work zones. PMID:21658509

  7. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Risk Analysis Study.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    BPA's operating environment is filled with numerous uncertainties, and thus the rate-setting process must take into account a wide spectrum of risks. The objective of the Risk Analysis is to identify, model, and analyze the impacts that key risks have on BPA's net revenue (total revenues less total expenses). This is carried out in two distinct steps: a risk analysis step, in which the distributions, or profiles, of operating and non operating risks are defined, and a risk mitigation step, in which different rate tools are tested to assess their ability to recover BPA's costs in the face of this uncertainty. Two statistical models are used in the risk analysis step for this rate proposal, the Risk Analysis Model (RiskMod), and the Non-Operating Risk Model (NORM), while a third model, the ToolKit, is used to test the effectiveness of rate tools options in the risk mitigation step. RiskMod is discussed in Sections 2.1 through 2.4, the NORM is discussed in Section 2.5, and the ToolKit is discussed in Section 3. The models function together so that BPA can develop rates that cover all of its costs and provide a high probability of making its Treasury payments on time and in full during the rate period. By law, BPA's payments to Treasury are the lowest priority for revenue application, meaning that payments to Treasury are the first to be missed if financial reserves are insufficient to pay all bills on time. For this reason, BPA measures its potential for recovering costs in terms of probability of being able to make Treasury payments on time (also known as Treasury Payment Probability or TPP).

  8. Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

    PubMed

    Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. PMID:26010201

  9. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billingham, J.

    1986-01-01

    The risks, values, and costs of the SETI project are evaluated and compared with those of the Viking project. Examination of the scientific values, side benefits, and costs of the two projects reveal that both projects provide equal benefits at equal costs. The probability of scientific and technical success is analyzed.

  10. A risk analysis model in concurrent engineering product development.

    PubMed

    Wu, Desheng Dash; Kefan, Xie; Gang, Chen; Ping, Gui

    2010-09-01

    Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three-dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company. PMID:20840492

  11. Economic Risk Analysis: Using Analytical and Monte Carlo Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Donnell, Brendan R.; Hickner, Michael A.; Barna, Bruce A.

    2002-01-01

    Describes the development and instructional use of a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet template that facilitates analytical and Monte Carlo risk analysis of investment decisions. Discusses a variety of risk assessment methods followed by applications of the analytical and Monte Carlo methods. Uses a case study to illustrate use of the spreadsheet tool…

  12. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  13. DOE 2009 Geothermal Risk Analysis: Methodology and Results (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    This presentation summarizes the methodology and results for a probabilistic risk analysis of research, development, and demonstration work-primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)-sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program.

  14. American Airlines Propeller STOL Transport Economic Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ransone, B.

    1972-01-01

    A Monte Carlo risk analysis on the economics of STOL transports in air passenger traffic established the probability of making the expected internal rate of financial return, or better, in a hypothetical regular Washington/New York intercity operation.

  15. Vulnerability and vigilance: threat awareness and perceived adversary intent moderate the impact of mortality salience on intergroup violence.

    PubMed

    Hirschberger, Gilad; Pyszczynski, Thomas; Ein-Dor, Tsachi

    2009-05-01

    Three studies examined whether perceived adversary intent and personal vulnerability moderate the effects of mortality salience (MS) on violent solutions to conflict. In Study 1, following MS, Israeli participants read a description of de-escalating or escalating Iranian rhetoric. In Study 2, following MS, Israeli participants read about tensions with Iran and reflected on the personal ramifications of the conflict or on the content of the passage. In Study 3, Israeli participants with direct war exposure were compared to participants with no war exposure, and following MS, read a description of escalating or de-escalating Hezbollah rhetoric. Results revealed that MS increased support of violence under escalating conditions and low perceived vulnerability. However, for persons with direct war exposure, MS induced support of violence contingent on adversary rhetoric. Thus, direct experience with war leads to a more nuanced contingent response to existential threat not present among those without direct war experience. PMID:19208903

  16. SARA (System Analysis and Risk Assessment): An NRC risk management tool

    SciTech Connect

    Sattison, M.B.; Robinson, R.C.

    1987-01-01

    The System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system is being developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory under the direction and guidance of the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The objective of this project is to provide a personal computer (PC)-based, user-friendly system for the computation and analysis of information on nuclear power plant risk characteristics. The latest released version of SARA (Version 2.0) contains the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) results from four of the five plants included in the NUREG-1150 study. These plants are: Surry;Peach Bottom;Sequoyah;and Grand Gulf.

  17. Modeling multiple communities of interest for interactive simulation and gaming: the dynamic adversarial gaming algorithm project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, Eugene, Jr.; Zhao, Qunhua; Pratto, Felicia; Pearson, Adam R.; McQueary, Bruce; Breeden, Andy; Krause, Lee

    2007-04-01

    Nowadays, there is an increasing demand for the military to conduct operations that are beyond traditional warfare. In these operations, analyzing and understanding those who are involved in the situation, how they are going to behave, and why they behave in certain ways is critical for success. The challenge lies in that behavior does not simply follow universal/fixed doctrines; it is significantly influenced by soft factors (i.e. cultural factors, societal norms, etc.). In addition, there is rarely just one isolated enemy; the behaviors and responses of all groups in the region, and the dynamics of the interaction among them composes an important part of the whole picture. The Dynamic Adversarial Gaming Algorithm (DAGA) project aims to provide a wargaming environment for automation of simulating dynamics of geopolitical crisis and eventually be applied to military simulation and training domain, and/or commercial gaming arena. The focus of DAGA is on modeling communities of interest (COIs), where various individuals, groups, and organizations as well as their interactions are captured. The framework should provide a context for COIs to interact with each other and influence others' behaviors. These behaviors must incorporate soft factors by modeling cultural knowledge. We do so by representing cultural variables and their influence on behavior using probabilistic networks. In this paper, we describe our COI modeling, the development of cultural networks, the interaction architecture, and a prototype of DAGA.

  18. Adversarial intent modeling using embedded simulation and temporal Bayesian knowledge bases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pioch, Nicholas J.; Melhuish, James; Seidel, Andy; Santos, Eugene, Jr.; Li, Deqing; Gorniak, Mark

    2009-05-01

    To foster shared battlespace awareness among air strategy planners, BAE Systems has developed Commander's Model Integration and Simulation Toolkit (CMIST), an Integrated Development Environment for authoring, integration, validation, and debugging of models relating multiple domains, including political, military, social, economic and information. CMIST provides a unified graphical user interface for such systems of systems modeling, spanning several disparate modeling paradigms. Here, we briefly review the CMIST architecture and then compare modeling results using two approaches to intent modeling. The first uses reactive agents with simplified behavior models that apply rule-based triggers to initiate actions based solely on observations of the external world at the current time in the simulation. The second method models proactive agents running an embedded CMIST simulation representing their projection of how events may unfold in the future in order to take early preventative action. Finally, we discuss a recent extension to CMIST that incorporates Temporal Bayesian Knowledge Bases for more sophisticated models of adversarial intent that are capable of inferring goals and future actions given evidence of current actions at particular times.

  19. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:19048472

  20. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  1. Cutting out the middleman: physicians can contract directly with employers--a viable alternative to adversarial managed care agreements.

    PubMed

    Lester, Howard

    2002-01-01

    HMOs, PPOs, and other managed care "middlemen" control the means by which most physicians do business with employers. As physicians face dwindling reimbursements, greater practice restrictions, and increased pressure to sign adversarial middleman contracts, interest in direct contracting has grown. This article introduces direct contracting as an important alternative to commercial managed care agreements; cites the key advantages and process of direct contracting; and offers practical recommendations for helping physician practices successfully negotiate direct physician/employer agreements. PMID:12534262

  2. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  3. Environmental transport in the Oil Shale Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Feerer, J L; Gratt, L B

    1983-06-01

    The Oil Shale Risk Analysis differs from similar efforts in coal and nuclear energy in that the industry is not yet developed to a commercial scale. Many assumptions are necessary to predict the future oil shale industry pollutants, the environmental transport of these pollutants, and subsequent human health and environmental effects. The environmental transport analysis in the Oil Shale Risk Analysis is used as an example of applying assumptions to the best available data to predict potential environmental effects of a future commercial industry. The analysis provides information to aid in formulating and managing a program of environmental research focused on reducing uncertainties in critical areas. PMID:6879167

  4. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    PubMed

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. PMID:22410502

  5. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    PubMed

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. PMID:26061899

  6. Land Use Adaptation Strategies Analysis in Landslide Risk Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yu-Ching; Chang, Chin-Hsin; Chen, Ying-Tung

    2013-04-01

    In order to respond to the impact of climate and environmental change on Taiwanese mountain region, this study used GTZ (2004) Risk analysis guidelines to assess the landslide risk for 178 Taiwanese mountain towns. This study used 7 indicators to assess landslide risk, which are rainfall distribution, natural environment vulnerability (e.g., rainfall threshold criterion for debris flow, historical disaster frequency, landslide ratio, and road density), physicality vulnerability (e.g., population density) and socio-economic vulnerability (e.g., population with higher education, death rate and income). The landslide risk map can be obtained by multiplying 7 indicators together and ranking the product. The map had 5 risk ranges, and towns within the range of 4 to 5, which are high landslide risk regions, and have high priority in reducing risk. This study collected the regions with high landslide risk regions and analyzed the difference after Typhoon Morakot (2009). The spatial distribution showed that after significant environmental damage high landslide risk regions moved from central to south Taiwan. The changeable pattern of risk regions pointed out the necessity of updating the risk map periodically. Based on the landslide risk map and the land use investigation data which was provided by the National Land Surveying and Mapping Center in 2007, this study calculated the size of the land use area with landslide disaster risk. According to the above results and discussion, this study can be used to suggest appropriate land use adaptation strategies provided for reducing landslide risk under the impact of climate and environmental change.

  7. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation.

    PubMed

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2014-01-15

    An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials. PMID:24239259

  8. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability

  9. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    PubMed

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures. PMID:27575259

  10. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheung, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a systems engineering approach to resource planning by integrating mathematical modeling and constrained optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to generate an optimal task plan in the presence of uncertainties.

  11. Risk D&D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2009-05-28

    Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health & safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects.

  12. Statin use and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Jin, Shaolin; Jiang, Jianping; Bai, Pengcheng; Zhang, Mei; Tong, Xujun; Wang, Hui; Lu, Youqun

    2015-01-01

    This meta-analysis investigates the associations of statins use and fracture risk. Two reviewers independently searched six databases including PubMed, Cochrane Library, Ovid, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Wanfang databases. Studies retrieved from database searches were screened using our stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria. A sum of 17 studies, published between 2000 and 2014, were included in this meta-analysis. The results of this meta-analysis suggested that statins use was associated with a decreased risk of fracture (OR=0.80; 95% CI, 0.73-0.88; P < 0.00001). In the subgroup analysis by study design, statins was significantly associated with a decreased risk of fracture in both case-control studies (OR=0.67; 95% CI, 0.55-0.87; P < 0.0001) and cohort studies (OR=0.86; 95% CI, 0.77-0.97; P=0.02). In the female subgroup analysis, statins user showed decreased fracture risk (OR=0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.92; P=0.005). In the subgroup analysis by duration of follow-up, studies with both long and short duration of follow-up showed decreased risk of fracture (OR=0.67; 95% CI, 0.54-0.82; P=0.001 and OR=0.85; 95% CI, 0.74-0.96; P=0.01). Studies with large sample size and small sample size showed decreased risk of fracture (OR=0.85; 95% CI, 0.77-0.94; P=0.002 and OR=0.65; 95% CI, 0.54-0.78; P < 0.0001). In conclusion, this meta-analysis suggested a significant association between statins use and decreased fracture risk. PMID:26221409

  13. Contract Negotiations Supported Through Risk Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodrigues, Sérgio A.; Vaz, Marco A.; Souza, Jano M.

    Many clients often view software as a commodity; then, it is critical that IT sellers know how to create value into their offering to differentiate their service from all the others. Clients sometimes refuse to contract software development due to lack of technical understanding or simply because they are afraid of IT contractual commitments. The IT negotiators who recognize the importance of this issue and the reason why it is a problem will be able to work to reach the commercial terms they want. Therefore, this chapter aims to stimulate IT professionals to improve their negotiation skills and presents a computational tool to support managers to get the best out of software negotiations through the identification of contract risks.

  14. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

  15. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: medicines.

    PubMed

    Luteijn, J M; White, B C; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Holm, F; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; McCarron, P A; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    Benefit-risk assessment in medicine has been a valuable tool in the regulation of medicines since the 1960s. Benefit-risk assessment takes place in multiple stages during a medicine's life-cycle and can be conducted in a variety of ways, using methods ranging from qualitative to quantitative. Each benefit-risk assessment method is subject to its own specific strengths and limitations. Despite its widespread and long-time use, benefit-risk assessment in medicine is subject to debate and suffers from a number of limitations and is currently still under development. This state of the art review paper will discuss the various aspects and approaches to benefit-risk assessment in medicine in a chronological pathway. The review will discuss all types of benefit-risk assessment a medicinal product will undergo during its lifecycle, from Phase I clinical trials to post-marketing surveillance and health technology assessment for inclusion in public formularies. The benefit-risk profile of a drug is dynamic and differs for different indications and patient groups. In the end of this review we conclude benefit-risk analysis in medicine is a developed practice that is subject to continuous improvement and modernisation. Improvement not only in methodology, but also in cooperation between organizations can improve benefit-risk assessment. PMID:21683115

  16. Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

  17. Geotechnical risk analysis by flat dilatometer (DMT)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amoroso, Sara; Monaco, Paola

    2015-04-01

    In the last decades we have assisted at a massive migration from laboratory testing to in situ testing, to the point that, today, in situ testing is often the major part of a geotechnical investigation. The State of the Art indicates that direct-push in situ tests, such as the Cone Penetration Test (CPT) and the Flat Dilatometer Test (DMT), are fast and convenient in situ tests for routine site investigation. In most cases the DMT estimated parameters, in particular the undrained shear strength su and the constrained modulus M, are used with the common design methods of Geotechnical Engineering for evaluating bearing capacity, settlements etc. The paper focuses on the prediction of settlements of shallow foundations, that is probably the No. 1 application of the DMT, especially in sands, where undisturbed samples cannot be retrieved, and on the risk associated with their design. A compilation of documented case histories that compare DMT-predicted vs observed settlements, was collected by Monaco et al. (2006), indicating that, in general, the constrained modulus M can be considered a reasonable "operative modulus" (relevant to foundations in "working conditions") for settlement predictions based on the traditional linear elastic approach. Indeed, the use of a site investigation method, such as DMT, that improve the accuracy of design parameters, reduces risk, and the design can then center on the site's true soil variability without parasitic test variability. In this respect, Failmezger et al. (1999, 2015) suggested to introduce Beta probability distribution, that provides a realistic and useful description of variability for geotechnical design problems. The paper estimates Beta probability distribution in research sites where DMT tests and observed settlements are available. References Failmezger, R.A., Rom, D., Ziegler, S.R. (1999). "SPT? A better approach of characterizing residual soils using other in-situ tests", Behavioral Characterics of Residual Soils, B

  18. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures. PMID:25264172

  19. Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hwang, H.; Reich, M.; Shinozuka, M.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents a reliability analysis method for safety evaluation of nuclear structures. By utilizing this method, it is possible to estimate the limit state probability in the lifetime of structures and to generate analytically the fragility curves for PRA studies. The earthquake ground acceleration, in this approach, is represented by a segment of stationary Gaussian process with a zero mean and a Kanai-Tajimi Spectrum. All possible seismic hazard at a site represented by a hazard curve is also taken into consideration. Furthermore, the limit state of a structure is analytically defined and the corresponding limit state surface is then established. Finally, the fragility curve is generated and the limit state probability is evaluated. In this paper, using a realistic reinforced concrete containment as an example, results of the reliability analysis of the containment subjected to dead load, live load and ground earthquake acceleration are presented and a fragility curve for PRA studies is also constructed.

  20. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    PubMed

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. PMID:21679738

  1. Credibility analysis of risk classes by generalized linear model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdemir, Ovgucan Karadag; Sucu, Meral

    2016-06-01

    In this paper generalized linear model (GLM) and credibility theory which are frequently used in nonlife insurance pricing are combined for reliability analysis. Using full credibility standard, GLM is associated with limited fluctuation credibility approach. Comparison criteria such as asymptotic variance and credibility probability are used to analyze the credibility of risk classes. An application is performed by using one-year claim frequency data of a Turkish insurance company and results of credible risk classes are interpreted.

  2. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  3. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  4. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    PubMed

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases. PMID:24402720

  5. Quantitative Risk Analysis of Obstacle Limitation Standards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandaradura, Amila Silva

    Obstacle limitation surfaces (OLS) are the main safeguard against objects that can pose a hazard to aircraft operations at and around the airports. The standard dimensions of the most of these surfaces were estimated using the pilot's experience at the time when they were included in to the standard documents. As a result, some of these standards may have been overestimated while others may not provide an adequate level of safety. With airports moving to the Safety Management System (SMS) approach to design and operations safety, proper evaluation of the level of safety provided by OLS at specific sites becomes great importance to airport operators. There is no published evidence, however, for the estimation of the safety level provided by the existing OLS standards. Moreover, the rationale used by the ICAO to establish existing OLS standards is not readily available in the standard documents. Therefore this study attempts to collect actual flight path data using information provided by air traffic control radars and construct a methodology to assess the probability of aircraft deviating from their intended/protected path. The extension of the developed methodology can be used to estimate the OLS dimensions that provide an acceptable safety level for the aircraft operations. This will be helpful to estimate safe and efficient standard dimensions of the OLS and assess the risk level of objects to the aircraft operations around airports. In order to assess the existing standards and show the applications of the methodology, three case studies were conducted using aircraft data collected from Ottawa (CYOW), Calgary (CYYC) and Edmonton (CYEG) International Airports.

  6. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Mozambique.

    PubMed

    1996-12-01

    Mozambique's National STD/AIDS Control Program (NACP) estimates that, at present, about 8% of the population is infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The epidemic is expected to peak in 1997. By 2001, Mozambique is projected to have 1,650,000 HIV-positive adults 15-49 years of age, of whom 500,000 will have developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and 500,000 AIDS orphans. Incidence rates are highest in the country's central region, the transport corridors, and urban centers. The rapid spread of HIV has been facilitated by extreme poverty, the social upheaval and erosion of traditional norms created by years of political conflict and civil war, destruction of the primary health care infrastructure, growth of the commercial sex work trade, and labor migration to and from neighboring countries with high HIV prevalence. Moreover, about 10% of the adult population suffers from sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), including genital ulcers. NACP, created in 1988, is attempting to curb the further spread of HIV through education aimed at changing high-risk behaviors and condom distribution to prevent STD transmission. Theater performances and radio/television programs are used to reach the large illiterate population. The integration of sex education and STD/AIDS information in the curricula of primary and secondary schools and universities has been approved by the Ministry of Education. Several private companies have been persuaded to distribute condoms to their employees. Finally, the confidentiality of HIV patients has been guaranteed. In 1993, the total AIDS budget was US $1.67 million, 50% of which was provided by the European Union. The European Commission seeks to develop a national strategy for managing STDs within the primary health care system. PMID:12320532

  7. Risk Analysis Methodology for Kistler's K-1 Reusable Launch Vehicle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Birkeland, Paul W.

    2002-01-01

    Missile risk analysis methodologies were originally developed in the 1940s as the military experimented with intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology. As the range of these missiles increased, it became apparent that some means of assessing the risk posed to neighboring populations was necessary to gauge the relative safety of a given test. There were many unknowns at the time, and technology was unpredictable at best. Risk analysis itself was in its infancy. Uncertainties in technology and methodology led to an ongoing bias toward conservative assumptions to adequately bound the problem. This methodology ultimately became the Casualty Expectation Analysis that is used to license Expendable Launch Vehicles (ELVs). A different risk analysis approach was adopted by the commercial aviation industry in the 1950s. At the time, commercial aviation technology was more firmly in hand than ICBM technology. Consequently commercial aviation risk analysis focused more closely on the hardware characteristics. Over the years, this approach has enabled the advantages of technological and safety advances in commercial aviation hardware to manifest themselves in greater capabilities and opportunities. The Boeing 777, for example, received approval for trans-oceanic operations "out of the box," where all previous aircraft were required, at the very least, to demonstrate operations over thousands of hours before being granted such approval. This "out of the box" approval is likely to become standard for all subsequent designs. In short, the commercial aircraft approach to risk analysis created a more flexible environment for industry evolution and growth. In contrast, the continued use of the Casualty Expectation Analysis by the launch industry is likely to hinder industry maturation. It likely will cause any safety and reliability gains incorporated into RLV design to be masked by the conservative assumptions made to "bound the problem." Consequently, for the launch

  8. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Initial Proposal : Risk Analysis Study.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2005-11-01

    The Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS), operated on behalf of the ratepayers of the PNW by BPA and other Federal agencies, faces many uncertainties during the FY 2007-2009 rate period. Among these uncertainties, the largest revolve around hydro conditions, market prices and river operations for fish recovery. In order to provide a high probability of making its U.S. Treasury payments, BPA performs a Risk Analysis as part of its rate-making process. In this Risk Analysis, BPA identifies key risks, models their relationships, and then analyzes their impacts on net revenues (total revenues less expenses). BPA subsequently evaluates in the ToolKit Model the Treasury Payment Probability (TPP) resulting from the rates, risks, and risk mitigation measures described here and in the Wholesale Power Rate Development Study (WPRDS). If the TPP falls short of BPA's standard, additional risk mitigation revenues, such as PNRR and CRAC revenues are incorporated in the modeling in ToolKit until the TPP standard is met. Increased wholesale market price volatility and six years of drought have significantly changed the profile of risk and uncertainty facing BPA and its stakeholders. These present new challenges for BPA in its effort to keep its power rates as low as possible while fully meeting its obligations to the U.S. Treasury. As a result, the risk BPA faces in not receiving the level of secondary revenues that have been credited to power rates before receiving those funds is greater. In addition to market price volatility, BPA also faces uncertainty around the financial impacts of operations for fish programs in FY 2006 and in the FY 2007-2009 rate period. A new Biological Opinion or possible court-ordered change to river operations in FY 2006 through FY 2009 may reduce BPA's net revenues included Initial Proposal. Finally, the FY 2007-2009 risk analysis includes new operational risks as well as a more comprehensive analysis of non-operating risks. Both the operational

  9. Bayes Method Plant Aging Risk Analysis

    1992-03-13

    DORIAN is an integrated package for performing Bayesian aging analysis of reliability data; e.g. for identifying trends in component failure rates and/or outage durations as a function of time. The user must specify several alternatives hypothesized aging models (i.e. possible trends) along with prior probabilities indicating the subjective probability that each trend is actually the correct one. DORIAN then uses component failure and/or repair data over time to update these prior probabilities and develop amore » posterior probability for each aging model, representing the probability that each model is the correct one in light of the observed data rather than a priori. Mean, median, and 5th and 95th percentile trends are also compiled from the posterior probabilities.« less

  10. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  11. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    PubMed

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-01

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks. PMID:19640668

  12. Nonstationary risk analysis of climate extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez-Demoulin, V.; Davison, A. C.; Suveges, M.

    2009-04-01

    There is growing interest in the modelling of the size and frequency of rare events in a changing climate. Standard models for extreme events are based on the modelling of annual maxima or exceedances over high or under low thresholds: in either case appropriate probability distributions are fitted to the data, and extrapolation to rare events is based on the fitted models. Very often, however, extremal models do not take full advantage of techniques that are standard in other domains of statistics. Smoothing methods are now well-established in many domains of statistics, and are increasingly used in analysis of extremal data. The crucial idea of smoothing is to replace a simple linear or quadratic form of dependence of one variable on another by a more flexible form, and thus to 'allow the data to speak for themselves,ánd thus, perhaps, to reveal unexpected features. There are many approaches to smoothing in the context of linear regression, of which the use of spline smoothing and of local polynomial modelling are perhaps the most common. Under the first, a basis of spline functions is used to represent the dependence; often this is called generalised additive modelling. Under the second, polynomial models are fitted locally to the data, resulting in a more flexible overall fit. The selection of the degree of smoothing is crucial, and there are automatic ways to do this. The talk will describe some applications of smoothing to data on temperature extremes, elucidating the relation between cold winter weather in the Alps and the North Atlantic Oscillation, and changes in the lengths of usually hot and cold spells in Britain. The work mixes classical models for extremes, generalised additive modelling, local polynomial smoothing, and the bootstrap. References Chavez-Demoulin, V. and Davison, A. C. (2005) Generalized additive modelling of sample extremes. Applied Statistics, 54, 207-222. Süveges, M. (2007) Likelihood estimation of the extremal index. Extremes, 10

  13. A meta-analysis on depression and subsequent cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    2007-01-01

    Background The authors tested the hypothesis that depression is a possible factor influencing the course of cancer by reviewing prospective epidemiological studies and calculating summary relative risks. Methods Studies were identified by computerized searches of Medline, Embase and PsycINFO. as well as manual searches of reference lists of selected publications. Inclusion criteria were cohort design, population-based sample, structured measurement of depression and outcome of cancer known for depressed and non-depressed subjects Results Thirteen eligible studies were identified. Based on eight studies with complete crude data on overall cancer, our summary relative risk (95% confidence interval) was 1.19 (1.06–1.32). After adjustment for confounders we pooled a summary relative risk of 1.12 (0.99–1.26). No significant association was found between depression and subsequent breast cancer risk, based on seven heterogeneous studies, with or without adjustment for possible confounders. Subgroup analysis of studies with a follow-up of ten years or more, however, resulted in a statistically significant summary relative risk of 2.50 (1.06–5.91). No significant associations were found for lung, colon or prostate cancer. Conclusion This review suggests a tendency towards a small and marginally significant association between depression and subsequent overall cancer risk and towards a stronger increase of breast cancer risk emerging many years after a previous depression. PMID:18053168

  14. Key Attributes of the SAPHIRE Risk and Reliability Analysis Software for Risk-Informed Probabilistic Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis Smith; James Knudsen; Kellie Kvarfordt; Ted Wood

    2008-08-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has lead to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30 to 40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena.

  15. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  16. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    SciTech Connect

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N. Andritsos, Nikolaos Psomas, Antonios Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  17. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    SciTech Connect

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  18. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G.; Nix, G.

    2007-03-01

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.

  19. Towards secure virtual directories : a risk analysis framework.

    SciTech Connect

    Claycomb, William R.

    2010-07-01

    Directory services are used by almost every enterprise computing environment to provide data concerning users, computers, contacts, and other objects. Virtual directories are components that provide directory services in a highly customized manner. Unfortunately, though the use of virtual directory services are widespread, an analysis of risks posed by their unique position and architecture has not been completed. We present a detailed analysis of six attacks to virtual directory services, including steps for detection and prevention. We also describe various categories of attack risks, and discuss what is necessary to launch an attack on virtual directories. Finally, we present a framework to use in analyzing risks to individual enterprise computing virtual directory instances. We show how to apply this framework to an example implementation, and discuss the benefits of doing so.

  20. Characterization and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

    1981-01-01

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed, using the event and fault-tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which are, at present, unquantifiable using either classical or Bayesian statistics. it is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events, and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance.

  1. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  2. Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

    PubMed

    Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

    2005-08-31

    Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference. PMID:15908107

  3. RASOR Project: Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation of Risk, from Hazard to Risk using EO data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Over recent decades, there has been a dramatic rise in disasters, and their impact on human populations. Escalation in complexities in our societies is making risks increasingly difficult to understand and changing the ways in which hazards interact with each other. The Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk (RASOR) project developed a multi-hazard risk analysis platform to support the full cycle of disaster management. RASOR provides up-to-date hazard information across floods and geohazards, up-to-date exposure data from known sources and newly-generated EO-based data, and characterised quantitatively their vulnerabilities. RASOR also adapts the newly-developed 12m resolution global TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to risk management applications, using it as a base layer to develop specific disaster scenarios. RASOR overlays archived and near real-time very high resolution optical and radar satellite data, combined with in situ data for both global and local applications. A scenario-driven query system allows users to project situations into the future and model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event. Applications with regards to different case study sites are presented in order to illustrate the platform potential.

  4. Safety risk analysis of an innovative environmental technology.

    PubMed

    Parnell, G S; Frimpon, M; Barnes, J; Kloeber, J M; Deckro, R E; Jackson, J A

    2001-02-01

    The authors describe a decision and risk analysis performed for the cleanup of a large Department of Energy mixed-waste subsurface disposal area governed by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). In a previous study, the authors worked with the site decision makers, state regulators, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regional regulators to develop a CERCLA-based multiobjective decision analysis value model and used the model to perform a screening analysis of 28 remedial alternatives. The analysis results identified an innovative technology, in situ vitrification, with high effectiveness versus cost. Since this technology had not been used on this scale before, the major uncertainties were contaminant migration and pressure buildup. Pressure buildup was a safety concern due to the potential risks to worker safety. With the help of environmental technology experts remedial alternative changes were identified to mitigate the concerns about contaminant migration and pressure buildup. The analysis results showed that the probability of an event with a risk to worker safety had been significantly reduced. Based on these results, site decision makers have refocused their test program to examine in situ vitrification and have continued the use of the CERCLA-based decision analysis methodology to analyze remedial alternatives. PMID:11332543

  5. Homeland security R&D roadmapping : risk-based methodological options.

    SciTech Connect

    Brandt, Larry D.

    2008-12-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories support the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in the development and execution of a research and development (R&D) strategy to improve the nation's preparedness against terrorist threats. Current approaches to planning and prioritization of DHS research decisions are informed by risk assessment tools and processes intended to allocate resources to programs that are likely to have the highest payoff. Early applications of such processes have faced challenges in several areas, including characterization of the intelligent adversary and linkage to strategic risk management decisions. The risk-based analysis initiatives at Sandia Laboratories could augment the methodologies currently being applied by the DHS and could support more credible R&D roadmapping for national homeland security programs. Implementation and execution issues facing homeland security R&D initiatives within the national laboratories emerged as a particular concern in this research.

  6. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  7. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  8. Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

  9. Analysis of automated highway system risks and uncertainties. Volume 5

    SciTech Connect

    Sicherman, A.

    1994-10-01

    This volume describes a risk analysis performed to help identify important Automated Highway System (AHS) deployment uncertainties and quantify their effect on costs and benefits for a range of AHS deployment scenarios. The analysis identified a suite of key factors affecting vehicle and roadway costs, capacities and market penetrations for alternative AHS deployment scenarios. A systematic protocol was utilized for obtaining expert judgments of key factor uncertainties in the form of subjective probability percentile assessments. Based on these assessments, probability distributions on vehicle and roadway costs, capacity and market penetration were developed for the different scenarios. The cost/benefit risk methodology and analysis provide insights by showing how uncertainties in key factors translate into uncertainties in summary cost/benefit indices.

  10. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  11. Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

    2016-04-01

    Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

  12. RADTRAN 5: A computer code for transportation risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Neuhauser, K. S.; Kanipe, F. L.

    1991-01-01

    RADTRAN 5 is a computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, NM, to estimate radiological and nonradiological risks of radioactive materials transportation. RADTRAN 5 is written in ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77 and contains significant advances in the methodology for route-specific analysis first developed by SNL for RADTRAN 4 (Neuhauser and Kanipe, 1992). Like the previous RADTRAN codes, RADTRAN 5 contains two major modules for incident-free and accident risk amlysis, respectively. All commercially important transportation modes may be analyzed with RADTRAN 5: highway by combination truck; highway by light-duty vehicle; rail; barge; ocean-going ship; cargo air; and passenger air.

  13. Risk Interfaces to Support Integrated Systems Analysis and Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objectives for systems analysis capability: Develop integrated understanding of how a complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. Why? Support development of integrated solutions that prevent unwanted outcomes (Implementable approaches to minimize mission resources(mass, power, crew time, etc.)); Support development of tools for autonomy (need for exploration) (Assess and maintain resilience -individuals, teams, integrated system). Output of this exercise: -Representation of interfaces based on Human System Risk Board (HSRB) Risk Summary information and simple status based on Human Research Roadmap; Consolidated HSRB information applied to support communication; Point-of-Departure for HRP Element planning; Ability to track and communicate status of collaborations. 4

  14. 49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This... safety and security risk analyses required by § 172.820. The risk analysis to be performed may...

  15. 49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This... safety and security risk analyses required by § 172.820. The risk analysis to be performed may...

  16. 49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This... safety and security risk analyses required by § 172.820. The risk analysis to be performed may...

  17. Hybrid Safety Analysis Using Functional and Risk Decompositions

    SciTech Connect

    COOPER,J. ARLIN; JOHNSON,ALICE J.; WERNER,PAUL W.

    2000-07-15

    Safety analysis of complex systems depends on decomposing the systems into manageable subsystems, from which analysis can be rolled back up to the system level. The authors have found that there is no single best way to decompose; in fact hybrid combinations of decompositions are generally necessary to achieve optimum results. They are currently using two backbone coordinated decompositions--functional and risk, supplemented by other types, such as organizational. An objective is to derive metrics that can be used to efficiently and accurately aggregate information through analysis, to contribute toward assessing system safety, and to contribute information necessary for defensible decisions.

  18. Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1994-05-01

    The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

  19. Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

  20. Evaluating the risk of patient re-identification from adverse drug event reports

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Our objective was to develop a model for measuring re-identification risk that more closely mimics the behaviour of an adversary by accounting for repeated attempts at matching and verification of matches, and apply it to evaluate the risk of re-identification for Canada’s post-marketing adverse drug event database (ADE).Re-identification is only demonstrably plausible for deaths in ADE. A matching experiment between ADE records and virtual obituaries constructed from Statistics Canada vital statistics was simulated. A new re-identification risk is considered, it assumes that after gathering all the potential matches for a patient record (all records in the obituaries that are potential matches for an ADE record), an adversary tries to verify these potential matches. Two adversary scenarios were considered: (a) a mildly motivated adversary who will stop after one verification attempt, and (b) a highly motivated adversary who will attempt to verify all the potential matches and is only limited by practical or financial considerations. Methods The mean percentage of records in ADE that had a high probability of being re-identified was computed. Results Under scenario (a), the risk of re-identification from disclosing the province, age at death, gender, and exact date of the report is quite high, but the removal of province brings down the risk significantly. By only generalizing the date of reporting to month and year and including all other variables, the risk is always low. All ADE records have a high risk of re-identification under scenario (b), but the plausibility of that scenario is limited because of the financial and practical deterrent even for highly motivated adversaries. Conclusions It is possible to disclose Canada’s adverse drug event database while ensuring that plausible re-identification risks are acceptably low. Our new re-identification risk model is suitable for such risk assessments. PMID:24094134

  1. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Börner, Susanne; Albino, Juan Carlos Torrico; Caraveo, Luz María Nieto; Tejeda, Ana Cristina Cubillas

    2015-05-01

    The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believed affected their personal health both at home and outside their homes. They were also asked to describe each photograph in writing. Photographs and written explanations were analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative content analysis. Risk perception plays a crucial role in the development of Risk Communication Programs (RCPs) aimed at the improvement of community health. The photography technique opens up a promising field for environmental health research since it affords a realistic and concise impression of the perceived risks. Adolescents in both communities perceived different environmental health risks as detrimental to their well-being, e.g. waste, air pollution, and lack of hygiene. Yet, some knowledge gaps remain which need to be addressed. PMID:26017963

  2. [Risk analysis in radiation therapy: state of the art].

    PubMed

    Mazeron, R; Aguini, N; Deutsch, É

    2013-01-01

    Five radiotherapy accidents, from which two serial, occurred in France from 2003 to 2007, led the authorities to establish a roadmap for securing radiotherapy. By analogy with industrial processes, a technical decision form the French Nuclear Safety Authority in 2008 requires radiotherapy professionals to conduct analyzes of risks to patients. The process of risk analysis had been tested in three pilot centers, before the occurrence of accidents, with the creation of cells feedback. The regulation now requires all radiotherapy services to have similar structures to collect precursor events, incidents and accidents, to perform analyzes following rigorous methods and to initiate corrective actions. At the same time, it is also required to conduct analyzes a priori, less intuitive, and usually require the help of a quality engineer, with the aim of reducing risk. The progressive implementation of these devices is part of an overall policy to improve the quality of radiotherapy. Since 2007, no radiotherapy accident was reported. PMID:23787020

  3. Risk assessment and its application to flight safety analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Keese, D.L.; Barton, W.R.

    1989-12-01

    Potentially hazardous test activities have historically been a part of Sandia National Labs mission to design, develop, and test new weapons systems. These test activities include high speed air drops for parachute development, sled tests for component and system level studies, multiple stage rocket experiments, and artillery firings of various projectiles. Due to the nature of Sandia's test programs, the risk associated with these activities can never be totally eliminated. However, a consistent set of policies should be available to provide guidance into the level of risk that is acceptable in these areas. This report presents a general set of guidelines for addressing safety issues related to rocket flight operations at Sandia National Laboratories. Even though the majority of this report deals primarily with rocket flight safety, these same principles could be applied to other hazardous test activities. The basic concepts of risk analysis have a wide range of applications into many of Sandia's current operations. 14 refs., 1 tab.

  4. Risk factors for rape re-victimisation: a retrospective analysis.

    PubMed

    Lurie, S; Boaz, M; Golan, A

    2013-11-01

    Sexual re-victimisation refers to a pattern in which the sexual assault victim has an increased risk of subsequent victimisation relative to an individual who was never victimised. The purpose of our study was to identify risks factors for a second rape, the severest form of sexual re-victimisation. All rape victims treated at the First Regional Israeli Center for Sexual Assault Victims between October 2000 and July 2010 were included in this retrospective analysis. We compared characteristics of 53 rape victims who were victimised twice to those of 1,939 rape victims who were victimised once. We identified several risk factors for a second rape, which can be used in prevention programmes. These are: psychiatric background, history of social services involvement, adulthood, non-virginity and minority ethnicity. PMID:24219731

  5. Code System to Calculate Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis.

    2002-02-18

    Version 04 IRRAS Version 4.16, the latest in a series (2.0, 2.5, 4.0, 4.15), is a program developed for the purpose of performing those functions necessary to create and analyze a complete Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This program includes functions to allow the user to create event trees and fault trees, to define accident sequences and basic event failure data, to solve system and accident sequence fault trees, to quantify cut sets, and to performmore » uncertainty analysis on the results. Also included in this program are features to allow the analyst to generate reports and displays that can be used to document the results of an analysis. Since this software is a very detailed technical tool, the user of this program should be familiar with PRA concepts and the methods used to perform these analyses. IRRAS Version 4.16 is the latest in the stand-alone IRRAS series (2.0, 2.5, 4.0, 4.15). Be sure to review the PSR-405/ SAPHIRE 7.06 package which was released in January 2000 and includes three programs: the Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS), the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system, the Models And Results Database (MAR-D) system, and the Fault tree, Event tree and P&ID (FEP) editors.« less

  6. Corticosteroids and Pediatric Septic Shock Outcomes: A Risk Stratified Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Atkinson, Sarah J.; Cvijanovich, Natalie Z.; Thomas, Neal J.; Allen, Geoffrey L.; Anas, Nick; Bigham, Michael T.; Hall, Mark; Freishtat, Robert J.; Sen, Anita; Meyer, Keith; Checchia, Paul A.; Shanley, Thomas P.; Nowak, Jeffrey; Quasney, Michael; Weiss, Scott L.; Banschbach, Sharon; Beckman, Eileen; Howard, Kelli; Frank, Erin; Harmon, Kelli; Lahni, Patrick; Lindsell, Christopher J.; Wong, Hector R.

    2014-01-01

    Background The potential benefits of corticosteroids for septic shock may depend on initial mortality risk. Objective We determined associations between corticosteroids and outcomes in children with septic shock who were stratified by initial mortality risk. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of an ongoing, multi-center pediatric septic shock clinical and biological database. Using a validated biomarker-based stratification tool (PERSEVERE), 496 subjects were stratified into three initial mortality risk strata (low, intermediate, and high). Subjects receiving corticosteroids during the initial 7 days of admission (n = 252) were compared to subjects who did not receive corticosteroids (n = 244). Logistic regression was used to model the effects of corticosteroids on 28-day mortality and complicated course, defined as death within 28 days or persistence of two or more organ failures at 7 days. Results Subjects who received corticosteroids had greater organ failure burden, higher illness severity, higher mortality, and a greater requirement for vasoactive medications, compared to subjects who did not receive corticosteroids. PERSEVERE-based mortality risk did not differ between the two groups. For the entire cohort, corticosteroids were associated with increased risk of mortality (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–4.0, p = 0.004) and a complicated course (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1–2.5, p = 0.012). Within each PERSEVERE-based stratum, corticosteroid administration was not associated with improved outcomes. Similarly, corticosteroid administration was not associated with improved outcomes among patients with no comorbidities, nor in groups of patients stratified by PRISM. Conclusions Risk stratified analysis failed to demonstrate any benefit from corticosteroids in this pediatric septic shock cohort. PMID:25386653

  7. Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lalk, Thomas R.; Spence, Cliff A.

    2003-01-01

    A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

  8. New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

  9. Risk assessment as an evolved threat detection and analysis process.

    PubMed

    Blanchard, D Caroline; Griebel, Guy; Pobbe, Roger; Blanchard, Robert J

    2011-03-01

    Risk assessment is a pattern of activities involved in detection and analysis of threat stimuli and the situations in which the threat is encountered. It is a core process in the choice of specific defenses, such as flight, freezing, defensive threat and defensive attack, that counter the threat and minimize the danger it poses. This highly adaptive process takes into account important characteristics, such as type and location (including distance from the subject) of the threat, as well as those (e.g. presence of an escape route or hiding place) of the situation, combining them to predict which specific defense is optimal with that particular combination of threat and situation. Risk assessment is particularly associated with ambiguity either of the threat stimulus or of the outcome of available defensive behaviors. It is also crucial in determining that threat is no longer present, permitting a return to normal, nondefensive behavior. Although risk assessment has been described in detail in rodents, it is also a feature of human defensive behavior, particularly in association with ambiguity. Rumination may be a specifically human form of risk assessment, more often expressed by women, and highly associated with anxiety. Risk assessment behaviors respond to drugs effective against generalized anxiety disorder; however, flight, a dominant specific defense in many common situations, shows a pharmacological response profile closer to that of panic disorder. Risk assessment and flight also appear to show some consistent differences in terms of brain regional activation patterns, suggesting a potential biological differentiation of anxiety and fear/panic systems. An especially intriguing possibility is that mirror neurons may respond to some of the same types of situational differences that are analyzed during risk assessment, suggesting an additional functional role for these neurons. PMID:21056591

  10. Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

    2016-01-01

    Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09-1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13-1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias-cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40-5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01-1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

  11. Computer Security Risk Assessment

    1992-02-11

    LAVA/CS (LAVA for Computer Security) is an application of the Los Alamos Vulnerability Assessment (LAVA) methodology specific to computer and information security. The software serves as a generic tool for identifying vulnerabilities in computer and information security safeguards systems. Although it does not perform a full risk assessment, the results from its analysis may provide valuable insights into security problems. LAVA/CS assumes that the system is exposed to both natural and environmental hazards and tomore » deliberate malevolent actions by either insiders or outsiders. The user in the process of answering the LAVA/CS questionnaire identifies missing safeguards in 34 areas ranging from password management to personnel security and internal audit practices. Specific safeguards protecting a generic set of assets (or targets) from a generic set of threats (or adversaries) are considered. There are four generic assets: the facility, the organization''s environment; the hardware, all computer-related hardware; the software, the information in machine-readable form stored both on-line or on transportable media; and the documents and displays, the information in human-readable form stored as hard-copy materials (manuals, reports, listings in full-size or microform), film, and screen displays. Two generic threats are considered: natural and environmental hazards, storms, fires, power abnormalities, water and accidental maintenance damage; and on-site human threats, both intentional and accidental acts attributable to a perpetrator on the facility''s premises.« less

  12. Plasma prolactin and breast cancer risk: a meta- analysis

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Minghao; Wu, Xiujuan; Chai, Fan; Zhang, Yi; Jiang, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women, and its incidence is on a constant rise. Previous studies suggest that higher levels of plasma prolactin are associated with escalated risk of breast cancer, however, these results are contradictory and inconclusive. PubMed and Medline were used to search and identify published observational studies that assessed the relationship between plasma prolactin levels and the risk of breast cancer. The pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a fixed-effects or random-effects model. A total of 7 studies were included in our analysis. For the highest versus lowest levels of plasma prolactin, the pooled RR (95% CI) of breast cancer were 1.16 (1.04, 1.29). In subgroup analyses, we found a positive association between plasma prolactin levels and the risk of breast cancer among the patients who were postmenopausal, ER+/PR+ or in situ and invasive carcinoma. However, this positive association was not detected in the premenopausal and ER-/PR- patients. In conclusion, the present study provides evidence supporting a significantly positive association between plasma prolactin levels and the risk of breast cancer. PMID:27184120

  13. Plasma prolactin and breast cancer risk: a meta- analysis.

    PubMed

    Wang, Minghao; Wu, Xiujuan; Chai, Fan; Zhang, Yi; Jiang, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women, and its incidence is on a constant rise. Previous studies suggest that higher levels of plasma prolactin are associated with escalated risk of breast cancer, however, these results are contradictory and inconclusive. PubMed and Medline were used to search and identify published observational studies that assessed the relationship between plasma prolactin levels and the risk of breast cancer. The pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a fixed-effects or random-effects model. A total of 7 studies were included in our analysis. For the highest versus lowest levels of plasma prolactin, the pooled RR (95% CI) of breast cancer were 1.16 (1.04, 1.29). In subgroup analyses, we found a positive association between plasma prolactin levels and the risk of breast cancer among the patients who were postmenopausal, ER(+)/PR(+) or in situ and invasive carcinoma. However, this positive association was not detected in the premenopausal and ER(-)/PR(-) patients. In conclusion, the present study provides evidence supporting a significantly positive association between plasma prolactin levels and the risk of breast cancer. PMID:27184120

  14. Working session 5: Operational aspects and risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cizelj, L.; Donoghue, J.

    1997-02-01

    A general observation is that both operational aspects and risk analysis cannot be adequately discussed without information presented in other sessions. Some overlap of conclusions and recommendations is therefore to be expected. Further, it was assumed that recommendations concerning improvements in some related topics were generated by other sessions and are not repeated here. These include: (1) Knowledge on degradation mechanisms (initiation, progression, and failure). (2) Modeling of degradation (initiation, progression, and failure). (3) Capabilities of NDE methods. (4) Preventive maintenance and repair. One should note here, however, that all of these directly affect both operational and risk aspects of affected plants. A list of conclusions and recommendations is based on available presentations and discussions addressing risk and operational experience. The authors aimed at reaching as broad a consensus as possible. It should be noted here that there is no strict delineation between operational and safety aspects of degradation of steam generator tubes. This is caused by different risk perceptions in different countries/societies. The conclusions and recommendations were divided into four broad groups: human reliability; leakage monitoring; risk impact; and consequence assessment.

  15. [Radiobiological analysis of cancerogenic risk values in radioepidemiological investigations].

    PubMed

    Rozhdestvenskiĭ, L M

    2008-01-01

    The aim of the present article consisted in critical analysis of the epidemiological approach to radiocancerogenic risk estimation in region of low level radiation (LLR). The estimation is making by means of mathematician models that ignore a principal difference in biological action of LLR and high level radiation (HLR). The main formal characteristic of LLR action is the presence of a plateau in beginning of a dose-effect curve of radiogenic risk. It may be argued by the following positions: repeating the plateau-phenomenon on various radiobiological effects, in different tests and bioobjects, first; a paradoxical trend of reciprocal ERR/Sv increasing regarding dose decreasing in region of plateau, second, and third, the increasing of the curvature in dose-effect curve beginning. The presence of a plateau is associated with the presence of a real radiogenic risk threshold. Besides, the analysis of processes influencing significantly the dynamics of initial radiation injury of biologically important macromolecules showed the preference in region of LLR those, decreasing/eliminating genome damages. There is follows from mentioned above a necessity to evaluate radiogenic risks in LLR region separately from HLR region. PMID:18825986

  16. EDUCATIONAL SECTION: risk analysis in surgical oncology-part I: concepts and tools.

    PubMed

    Rew, D A

    2000-09-01

    All clinical procedures invoke risk. Many interventions in cancer management carry a particularly high element of risk, expressed through morbidity and premature death. Formal risk analysis is a discipline which is fundamental to engineering, to finance, to the airline industry and many other sectors of public life. Clinical risk analysis involves risk prediction, risk management and risk avoidance. Risk analysis is rarely invoked or taught in the clinical sciences, and management appraisals on individual patients almost never include a formal estimate of risk. Clinical decisions tend to be guided by qualitative judgements, and by the personality interactions of patients and clinicians. A formal evaluation of risk on a case by case and procedural basis might reduce morbidity and cost in surgical oncology practice. This article introduces the concepts, the spectrum and history of risk analysis and the tools for risk prediction. PMID:11034813

  17. Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

  18. Predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease is influenced by the risk equation adopted: a cross-sectional analysis

    PubMed Central

    Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Mellalieu, Stephen D; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

    2014-01-01

    Background Validated risk equations are currently recommended to assess individuals to determine those at ‘high risk’ of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there is no longer a risk ‘equation of choice’. Aim This study examined the differences between four commonly-used CVD risk equations. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, south Wales. Method Analysis of 790 individuals (474 females, 316 males) with no prior diagnosis of CVD or diabetes. Ten-year CVD risk was predicted by entering the relevant variables into the QRISK2, Framingham Lipids, Framingham BMI, and JBS2 risk equations. Results The Framingham BMI and JBS2 risk equations predicted a higher absolute risk than the QRISK2 and Framingham Lipids equations, and CVD risk increased concomitantly with age irrespective of which risk equation was adopted. Only a small proportion of females (0–2.1%) were predicted to be at high risk of developing CVD using any of the risk algorithms. The proportion of males predicted at high risk ranged from 5.4% (QRISK2) to 20.3% (JBS2). After age stratification, few differences between isolated risk factors were observed in males, although a greater proportion of males aged ≥50 years were predicted to be at ‘high risk’ independent of risk equation used. Conclusions Different risk equations can influence the predicted 10-year CVD risk of individuals. More males were predicted at ‘high risk’ using the JBS2 or Framingham BMI equations. Consideration should also be given to the number of isolated risk factors, especially in younger adults when evaluating CVD risk. PMID:25267049

  19. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  20. Alcohol and injury: a risk function analysis from the Emergency Room Collaborative Alcohol Analysis Project (ERCAAP).

    PubMed

    Cherpitel, Cheryl J; Bond, Jason; Ye, Yu

    2006-01-01

    While emergency room (ER) studies have documented a strong association of alcohol and injury, less is known about the level of risk at which various quantities of alcohol or particular patterns of drinking place the individual for injury. Comparative risk function analyses are carried out in ER samples in seven countries that cover sites in 14 studies included in the Emergency Room Collaborative Alcohol Analysis Project (ERCAAP). Risk of injury is analyzed for the mean number of drinks consumed per day and the number of occasions in which 5 or more drinks were consumed at one time (5+) during the last year. All countries showed similar increases in injury risk to an average volume of about 2 drinks per day, with a leveling off of risk at higher average daily volumes, with the exception of Italy. Risk of injury increased to 12 or more 5+ days for the USA, Canada and Mexico, but leveled off after only 3 5+ days for Argentina and Spain. Poland showed increased risk to 30 5+ days. Similar risk curves were found for both males and females, although females were at lower risk of injury in all countries expect Spain and Poland. In low detrimental drinking pattern societies, risk curves showed higher risk for any drinking and any frequency of 5+ but at higher levels of each, risk levels decreased nearly to levels found for abstainers. Risk functions were also consistent across gender and age groups in low detrimental drinking pattern societies, with higher risk for males and those <30. For those countries with high detrimental drinking patterns, injury risk increased with volume and 5+ drinking primarily among males. This ER-based risk function analysis suggests that risk of injury increases proportionally with increased alcohol consumption at lower consumption levels, but a threshold effect is achieved at relatively low levels of mean daily consumption and higher consumption times. Risk may be culturally specific, dependent, in part, on the manner in which alcohol is used

  1. Global Human Settlement Analysis for Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pesaresi, M.; Ehrlich, D.; Ferri, S.; Florczyk, A.; Freire, S.; Haag, F.; Halkia, M.; Julea, A. M.; Kemper, T.; Soille, P.

    2015-04-01

    The Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) is supported by the European Commission, Joint Research Center (JRC) in the frame of his institutional research activities. Scope of GHSL is developing, testing and applying the technologies and analysis methods integrated in the JRC Global Human Settlement analysis platform for applications in support to global disaster risk reduction initiatives (DRR) and regional analysis in the frame of the European Cohesion policy. GHSL analysis platform uses geo-spatial data, primarily remotely sensed and population. GHSL also cooperates with the Group on Earth Observation on SB-04-Global Urban Observation and Information, and various international partners andWorld Bank and United Nations agencies. Some preliminary results integrating global human settlement information extracted from Landsat data records of the last 40 years and population data are presented.

  2. Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems: Modeling Individual Steps of a Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Shah, Anuj; Castleton, Karl J.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

    2004-06-01

    The study of the release and effects of chemicals in the environment and their associated risks to humans is central to public and private decision making. FRAMES 1.X, Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems, is a systems modeling software platform, developed by PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, that helps scientists study the release and effects of chemicals on a source to outcome basis, create environmental models for similar risk assessment and management problems. The unique aspect of FRAMES is to dynamically introduce software modules representing individual components of a risk assessment (e.g., source release of contaminants, fate and transport in various environmental media, exposure, etc.) within a software framework, manipulate their attributes and run simulations to obtain results. This paper outlines the fundamental constituents of FRAMES 2.X, an enhanced version of FRAMES 1.X, that greatly improve the ability of the module developers to “plug” their self-developed software modules into the system. The basic design, the underlying principles and a discussion of the guidelines for module developers are presented.

  3. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to...

  4. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to...

  5. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

    2007-11-01

    This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably

  6. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    PubMed

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. PMID:20731790

  7. Risk analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations. [Aggregated Systems Model (ASM)

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.

    1982-06-01

    The Aggregated Systems Model (ASM), a probabilisitic risk analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between risks and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the risk of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that risk were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments.

  8. Recent Advances in Launch Vehicle Toxic Hazard and Risk Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyman, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    A number of widely used rocket propellants produce toxic combustion byproducts or are themselves toxic in their un-reacted state. In this paper we focus on the methodology used to evaluate early flight catastrophic failures and nominal launch emissions that release large amounts of propellant or combustion products into the planetary boundary layer that pose a potential risk to launch area personnel, spectators, or the general public. The United States has traditionally used the Rocket Exhaust Effluent Diffusion Model (REEDM) [1] to access the hazard zones associated with such releases. REEDM is a 1970's vintage Gaussian atmospheric dispersion model that is limited in its ability to accurately simulate certain aspects of the initial source geometry and dynamics of a vehicle breakup and propellant fragment dispersion. The Launch Area Toxic Risk Analysis 3-Dimensional (LATRA3D) [2] computer program has been developed that addresses many of REEDM's deficiencies. LATRA3D is a probabilistic risk analysis tool that simulates both nominal vehicle flight and in-flight failure emissions.

  9. A risk analysis of winter navigation in Finnish sea areas.

    PubMed

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub; Kujala, Pentti

    2015-06-01

    Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in north-European sea areas. In Finnish waters, the smooth flow of maritime traffic and safety of vessel navigation during the winter period are managed through the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system (FSWNS). This article focuses on accident risks in winter navigation operations, beginning with a brief outline of the FSWNS. The study analyses a hazard identification model of winter navigation and reviews accident data extracted from four winter periods. These are adopted as a basis for visualizing the risks in winter navigation operations. The results reveal that experts consider ship independent navigation in ice conditions the most complex navigational operation, which is confirmed by accident data analysis showing that the operation constitutes the type of navigation with the highest number of accidents reported. The severity of the accidents during winter navigation is mainly categorized as less serious. Collision is the most typical accident in ice navigation and general cargo the type of vessel most frequently involved in these accidents. Consolidated ice, ice ridges and ice thickness between 15 and 40cm represent the most common ice conditions in which accidents occur. Thus, the analysis presented in this article establishes the key elements for identifying the operation types which would benefit most from further safety engineering and safety or risk management development. PMID:25819212

  10. From network analysis to risk analysis--An approach to risk-based surveillance for bovine tuberculosis in Minnesota, US.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro-Lima, J; Enns, E A; Thompson, B; Craft, M E; Wells, S J

    2015-03-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) was first detected in 2005 in cattle in northwestern Minnesota (MN) through slaughter surveillance. By the end of 2008, 12 cattle herds were infected with bTB, and the main cause for infection was determined to be the movement of infected animals between herds. Bovine tuberculosis was contained in a smaller area in northwestern Minnesota classified as modified accredited (MA), corresponding to a prevalence inferior to 0.1% in cattle. From January 2008 to 2011, all cattle movements within the bTB MA were recorded electronically. The primary objectives of this study were to characterize cattle movements within this region and identify cattle herds with higher risk of bTB introduction based on network parameters and known risk factors from the published literature. During the period that data was collected, 57,460 cattle were moved in 3762 movements corresponding to permits issued to 682 premises, mostly representing private farms, sale yards, slaughter facilities and county or state fairs. Although sale yards represented less than 2% of the premises (nodes), 60% of the movements were to or from a sale yard. The network showed an overall density of 0.4%, a clustering coefficient of 14.6% and a betweenness centralization index of 12.7%, reflecting the low connectivity of this cattle network. The degree distribution showed that 20% of nodes performed 90% of the movements. Farms were ranked based on the total risk score and divided into high, medium, and low risk groups based on the score and its variability. The higher risk group included 14% (n=50) of the farms, corresponding to 80% of the cumulative risk for the farms in the bTB area. This analysis provides a baseline description about the contact structure of cattle movements in an area previously infected with bTB and develops a framework for a targeted surveillance approach for bTB to support future surveillance decisions. PMID:25577678

  11. [Risk Factor Analysis of Pneumonia after Cardiovascular Surgery].

    PubMed

    Maekawa, Yoshiyuki; Abe, Shuichi; Nakamura, Ken; Uchida, Tetsuro; Sadahiro, Mitsuaki; Morikane, Keita

    2016-08-01

    Pneumonia is a major and life-threatening complication after cardiovascular surgery. The objective of our study was to describe epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and risk factors of pneumonia after cardiovascular surgery. From January 2007 to December 2011, 511 consecutive patients (age 67.3±11.9;336 men, 175 women) were enrolled in this study. Pneumonia was diagnosed according to Centers of Disease Control and Prevention surveillance criteria for healthcare associated infection. Data collection included preoperative, intraoperative, and post-operative variables. The overall incidence of pneumonia was 72 cases(14.0%). The mortality in pneumonia group was significantly higher than that in non-pneumonia group (16.6% vs 4.3%, Odds ratio 4.4 p<0.001). Multi-logistic analysis revealed that elderly patient, preoperative congestive heart failure, preoperative hemodialysis, and operation of the thoracic aorta were independent risk factors for pneumonia after cardiovascular surgery. PMID:27476560

  12. Competing risk analysis using R: an easy guide for clinicians.

    PubMed

    Scrucca, L; Santucci, A; Aversa, F

    2007-08-01

    In the last decade with widespread use of quantitative analyses in medical research, close co-operation between statisticians and physicians has become essential from the experimental design through all phases of complex statistical analysis. On the other hand, easy-to-use statistical packages allow clinicians to perform basic statistical analyses themselves. Since the software they most commonly use does not perform in depth competing risk analysis, we recommend an add-on package for the R statistical software. We provide all the instructions for downloading it from internet and illustrate how to use it for analysis of a sample dataset of patients who underwent haematopoietic stem cell transplantation for acute leukaemia. PMID:17563735

  13. LAVA (Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology): A conceptual framework for automated risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.; Phillips, J.R.; Tisinger, R.M.; Brown, D.C.; FitzGerald, P.D.

    1986-01-01

    At Los Alamos National Laboratory, we have developed an original methodology for performing risk analyses on subject systems characterized by a general set of asset categories, a general spectrum of threats, a definable system-specific set of safeguards protecting the assets from the threats, and a general set of outcomes resulting from threats exploiting weaknesses in the safeguards system. The Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology (LAVA) models complex systems having large amounts of ''soft'' information about both the system itself and occurrences related to the system. Its structure lends itself well to automation on a portable computer, making it possible to analyze numerous similar but geographically separated installations consistently and in as much depth as the subject system warrants. LAVA is based on hierarchical systems theory, event trees, fuzzy sets, natural-language processing, decision theory, and utility theory. LAVA's framework is a hierarchical set of fuzzy event trees that relate the results of several embedded (or sub-) analyses: a vulnerability assessment providing information about the presence and efficacy of system safeguards, a threat analysis providing information about static (background) and dynamic (changing) threat components coupled with an analysis of asset ''attractiveness'' to the dynamic threat, and a consequence analysis providing information about the outcome spectrum's severity measures and impact values. By using LAVA, we have modeled our widely used computer security application as well as LAVA/CS systems for physical protection, transborder data flow, contract awards, and property management. It is presently being applied for modeling risk management in embedded systems, survivability systems, and weapons systems security. LAVA is especially effective in modeling subject systems that include a large human component.

  14. Contextual Risk Factors for Low Birth Weight: A Multilevel Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kayode, Gbenga A.; Amoakoh-Coleman, Mary; Agyepong, Irene Akua; Ansah, Evelyn; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin

    2014-01-01

    Background Low birth weight (LBW) remains to be a leading cause of neonatal death and a major contributor to infant and under-five mortality. Its prevalence has not declined in the last decade in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Asia. Some individual level factors have been identified as risk factors for LBW but knowledge is limited on contextual risk factors for LBW especially in SSA. Methods Contextual risk factors for LBW in Ghana were identified by performing multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis of 6,900 mothers dwelling in 412 communities that participated in the 2003 and 2008 Demographic and Health Surveys in Ghana. Results Contextual-level factors were significantly associated with LBW: Being a rural dweller increased the likelihood of having a LBW infant by 43% (OR 1.43; 95% CI 1.01–2.01; P-value <0.05) while living in poverty-concentrated communities increased the risk of having a LBW infant twofold (OR 2.16; 95% CI 1.29–3.61; P-value <0.01). In neighbourhoods with a high coverage of safe water supply the odds of having a LBW infant reduced by 28% (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.57–0.96; P-value <0.05). Conclusion This study showed contextual risk factors to have independent effects on the prevalence of LBW infants. Being a rural dweller, living in a community with a high concentration of poverty and a low coverage of safe water supply were found to increase the prevalence of LBW infants. Implementing appropriate community-based intervention programmes will likely reduce the occurrence of LBW infants. PMID:25360709

  15. Characterization and Risk Factor Analysis for Reoperation After Microendoscopic Diskectomy.

    PubMed

    Hong, Xin; Liu, Lei; Bao, Junping; Shi, Rui; Fan, Yudong; Wu, Xiaotao

    2015-06-01

    A population-based database of 1263 consecutive patients who underwent microendoscopic diskectomy for single-level lumbar disk herniation between 2005 and 2010 was retrospectively analyzed to identify causes and characteristics of reoperation and associated risk factors. A total of 952 patients were eligible. Of these, 58 had revision spinal surgery. Causes and clinical parameters were retrospectively assessed, and possible risk factors were evaluated by multivariate logistic regression analysis. In total, 76 disk herniations were excised with revision diskectomy, with or without interbody fusion. The overall mean interval between primary surgery and revision surgery was 39.05 months (range, 2-95 months). Cumulative overall reoperation rates gradually increased from 1.56% at 1 year to 8.17% after nearly 10 years. Reoperated patients were older and had a higher level of lumbar degeneration, with severe Modic changes (type 1, 17.2%; type 2, 34.5%), vs patients without reoperation (type 1, 1.5%; type 2, 30.6%). In addition, patients with reoperation had a higher rate of obvious adjacent disk degeneration (81.1%). Logistic regression analysis showed that adjacent segment degeneration and Pfirrmann grading for disk degeneration were significant risk factors for reoperation after primary microendoscopic diskectomy (odds ratios, 2.448 and 1.510, respectively). The current study reported a relatively low incidence of reoperation after primary microendoscopic diskectomy. Adjacent segment degeneration and Pfirrmann grading for disk degeneration were identified as risk factors for reoperation after microendoscopic diskectomy to treat lumbar disk herniation. Treatment options for patients with these factors at the first visit should be carefully evaluated. PMID:26091222

  16. 75 FR 53273 - Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Risk Analysis Protocol

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-31

    ... Risk Analysis Protocol AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and... availability of the draft revised Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Risk Analysis Protocol (Protocol... aquatic species that are the target of this risk analysis. Language used in the NANPCA...

  17. 14 CFR 420.25 - Launch site location review-risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Launch site location review-risk analysis... Requirements for Obtaining a License § 420.25 Launch site location review—risk analysis. (a) If a flight... risk analysis. (b) For licensed launches, the FAA will not approve the location of the proposed...

  18. 14 CFR 420.25 - Launch site location review-risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Launch site location review-risk analysis... Requirements for Obtaining a License § 420.25 Launch site location review—risk analysis. (a) If a flight... risk analysis. (b) For licensed launches, the FAA will not approve the location of the proposed...

  19. 14 CFR 420.25 - Launch site location review-risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Launch site location review-risk analysis... Requirements for Obtaining a License § 420.25 Launch site location review—risk analysis. (a) If a flight... risk analysis. (b) For licensed launches, the FAA will not approve the location of the proposed...

  20. 14 CFR 420.25 - Launch site location review-risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Launch site location review-risk analysis... Requirements for Obtaining a License § 420.25 Launch site location review—risk analysis. (a) If a flight... risk analysis. (b) For licensed launches, the FAA will not approve the location of the proposed...

  1. 14 CFR 420.25 - Launch site location review-risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Launch site location review-risk analysis... Requirements for Obtaining a License § 420.25 Launch site location review—risk analysis. (a) If a flight... risk analysis. (b) For licensed launches, the FAA will not approve the location of the proposed...

  2. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... Analysis. 2.71 Section 2.71 Agriculture Office of the Secretary of Agriculture DELEGATIONS OF AUTHORITY BY... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to...

  3. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... Analysis. 2.71 Section 2.71 Agriculture Office of the Secretary of Agriculture DELEGATIONS OF AUTHORITY BY... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to...

  4. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... Analysis. 2.71 Section 2.71 Agriculture Office of the Secretary of Agriculture DELEGATIONS OF AUTHORITY BY... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to...

  5. A performance-based approach to landslide risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romeo, R. W.

    2009-04-01

    An approach for the risk assessment based on a probabilistic analysis of the performance of structures threatened by landslides is shown and discussed. The risk is a possible loss due to the occurrence of a potentially damaging event. Analytically the risk is the probability convolution of hazard, which defines the frequency of occurrence of the event (i.e., the demand), and fragility that defines the capacity of the system to withstand the event given its characteristics (i.e., severity) and those of the exposed goods (vulnerability), that is: Risk=p(D>=d|S,V) The inequality sets a damage (or loss) threshold beyond which the system's performance is no longer met. Therefore a consistent approach to risk assessment should: 1) adopt a probabilistic model which takes into account all the uncertainties of the involved variables (capacity and demand), 2) follow a performance approach based on given loss or damage thresholds. The proposed method belongs to the category of the semi-empirical ones: the theoretical component is given by the probabilistic capacity-demand model; the empirical component is given by the observed statistical behaviour of structures damaged by landslides. Two landslide properties alone are required: the area-extent and the type (or kinematism). All other properties required to determine the severity of landslides (such as depth, speed and frequency) are derived via probabilistic methods. The severity (or intensity) of landslides, in terms of kinetic energy, is the demand of resistance; the resistance capacity is given by the cumulative distribution functions of the limit state performance (fragility functions) assessed via damage surveys and cards compilation. The investigated limit states are aesthetic (of nominal concern alone), functional (interruption of service) and structural (economic and social losses). The damage probability is the probabilistic convolution of hazard (the probability mass function of the frequency of occurrence of given

  6. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

    2015-04-01

    Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

  7. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures.

  8. Radiological risk analysis of potential SP-100 space mission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Bartram, B.W.; Weitzberg, A.

    1988-08-19

    This report presents a radiological risk analysis of three representative space mission scenarios utilizing a fission reactor. The mission profiles considered are: a high-altitude mission, launched by a TITAN IV launch vehicle, boosted by chemical upper stages into its operational orbit, a interplanetary nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) mission, started directly from a shuttle parking orbit, a low-altitude mission, launched by the Shuttle and boosted by a chemical stage to its operational orbit, with subsequent disposal boost after operation. 21 refs., 12 figs., 7 tabs.

  9. Metabolic Disease Risk in Children by Salivary Biomarker Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Goodson, J. Max; Kantarci, Alpdogan; Hartman, Mor-Li; Denis, Gerald V.; Stephens, Danielle; Hasturk, Hatice; Yaskell, Tina; Vargas, Jorel; Wang, Xiaoshan; Cugini, Maryann; Barake, Roula; Alsmadi, Osama; Al-Mutawa, Sabiha; Ariga, Jitendra; Soparkar, Pramod; Behbehani, Jawad; Behbehani, Kazem; Welty, Francine

    2014-01-01

    Objective The study of obesity-related metabolic syndrome or Type 2 diabetes (T2D) in children is particularly difficult because of fear of needles. We tested a non-invasive approach to study inflammatory parameters in an at-risk population of children to provide proof-of-principle for future investigations of vulnerable subjects. Design and Methods We evaluated metabolic differences in 744, 11-year old children selected from underweight, normal healthy weight, overweight and obese categories by analyzing fasting saliva samples for 20 biomarkers. Saliva supernatants were obtained following centrifugation and used for analyses. Results Salivary C-reactive protein (CRP) was 6 times higher, salivary insulin and leptin were 3 times higher, and adiponectin was 30% lower in obese children compared to healthy normal weight children (all P<0.0001). Categorical analysis suggested that there might be three types of obesity in children. Distinctly inflammatory characteristics appeared in 76% of obese children while in 13%, salivary insulin was high but not associated with inflammatory mediators. The remaining 11% of obese children had high insulin and reduced adiponectin. Forty percent of the non-obese children were found in groups which, based on biomarker characteristics, may be at risk for becoming obese. Conclusions Significantly altered levels of salivary biomarkers in obese children from a high-risk population, suggest the potential for developing non-invasive screening procedures to identify T2D-vulnerable individuals and a means to test preventative strategies. PMID:24915044

  10. Risk analysis of a gas-processing complex in India.

    PubMed

    Garg, R K; Khan, A A

    1991-09-01

    ONGC's Hazira Gas-Processing Complex (HGPC) consists of facilities for receiving natural gas along with associated condensate from an off-shore field at a rate of 20 MMN M3 per day. After separating the condensate, which is processed in condensate fractionation units, the gas is processed through various steps to recover LPG and to reduce its dew point to less than 5 degrees C in order to make it suitable for transportation over long distances. The acid gas recovered during the gas-sweetening step is processed to obtain sulphur. The major products manufactured at HGPC therefore are lean sweet gas, LPG, NGL, and sulphur. The Oil and Natural Gas Commission awarded the assignment on Hazard Study and Risk Analysis of their Hazira Gas-Processing Complex (HGPC) to the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in association with the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO). The scope of this assignment covered a number of closely related and fully defined activities normally encountered in this type of work. Identification of hazards through the most appropriate methods, assigning frequency of occurrence of major unwanted incidents, quantification and assessment of probable damage to plant equipment, environment, human and animal life due to an unexpected event, and evaluation of various methods for reducing risk, together constituted the methodology for this assignment. Detailed recommendations aimed at reducing risk and enhancing reliability of plant and machinery were made. This article gives an overview of the assignment. PMID:1947347

  11. Analysis of Radiation Pneumonitis Risk Using a Generalized Lyman Model

    SciTech Connect

    Tucker, Susan L. Liu, H. Helen; Liao Zhongxing; Wei Xiong; Wang Shulian; Jin Hekun; Komaki, Ritsuko; Martel, Mary K.; Mohan, Radhe

    2008-10-01

    Purpose: To introduce a version of the Lyman normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) model adapted to incorporate censored time-to-toxicity data and clinical risk factors and to apply the generalized model to analysis of radiation pneumonitis (RP) risk. Methods and Materials: Medical records and radiation treatment plans were reviewed retrospectively for 576 patients with non-small cell lung cancer treated with radiotherapy. The time to severe (Grade {>=}3) RP was computed, with event times censored at last follow-up for patients not experiencing this endpoint. The censored time-to-toxicity data were analyzed using the standard and generalized Lyman models with patient smoking status taken into account. Results: The generalized Lyman model with patient smoking status taken into account produced NTCP estimates up to 27 percentage points different from the model based on dose-volume factors alone. The generalized model also predicted that 8% of the expected cases of severe RP were unobserved because of censoring. The estimated volume parameter for lung was not significantly different from n = 1, corresponding to mean lung dose. Conclusions: NTCP models historically have been based solely on dose-volume effects and binary (yes/no) toxicity data. Our results demonstrate that inclusion of nondosimetric risk factors and censored time-to-event data can markedly affect outcome predictions made using NTCP models.

  12. Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Paulsen, Samuel S.

    2009-08-25

    Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

  13. Risk Perception Analysis Related To Existing Dams In Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solimene, Pellegrino

    2013-04-01

    earthfill dam is illustrated by defining the risk analysis during its construction and operation. A qualitative "Event Tree Analysis" makes clear with an example the probability of occurrence of the events triggered by an earthquake, and leads to a classification of the damage level. Finally, a System Dynamics (SD) approach is presented to investigate possibilities of a preventive planning in relationship to the risk, so that it's possible to establish shared procedures to achieve the correct management in any crisis phase. As a qualitative result of a SD application, figure 1 presents a flow-chart about a case study on the same dam so to illustrate the emergency planning in a step by step procedure according to the Regulations.

  14. Bisphosphonates and Risk of Cardiovascular Events: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Dae Hyun; Rogers, James R.; Fulchino, Lisa A.; Kim, Caroline A.; Solomon, Daniel H.; Kim, Seoyoung C.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objectives Some evidence suggests that bisphosphonates may reduce atherosclerosis, while concerns have been raised about atrial fibrillation. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the effects of bisphosphonates on total adverse cardiovascular (CV) events, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and CV death in adults with or at risk for low bone mass. Methods A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE through July 2014 identified 58 randomized controlled trials with longer than 6 months in duration that reported CV events. Absolute risks and the Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of total CV events, atrial fibrillation, MI, stroke, and CV death were estimated. Subgroup analyses by follow-up duration, population characteristics, bisphosphonate types, and route were performed. Results Absolute risks over 25–36 months in bisphosphonate-treated versus control patients were 6.5% versus 6.2% for total CV events; 1.4% versus 1.5% for atrial fibrillation; 1.0% versus 1.2% for MI; 1.6% versus 1.9% for stroke; and 1.5% versus 1.4% for CV death. Bisphosphonate treatment up to 36 months did not have any significant effects on total CV events (14 trials; ORs [95% CI]: 0.98 [0.84–1.14]; I2 = 0.0%), atrial fibrillation (41 trials; 1.08 [0.92–1.25]; I2 = 0.0%), MI (10 trials; 0.96 [0.69–1.34]; I2 = 0.0%), stroke (10 trials; 0.99 [0.82–1.19]; I2 = 5.8%), and CV death (14 trials; 0.88 [0.72–1.07]; I2 = 0.0%) with little between-study heterogeneity. The risk of atrial fibrillation appears to be modestly elevated for zoledronic acid (6 trials; 1.24 [0.96–1.61]; I2 = 0.0%), not for oral bisphosphonates (26 trials; 1.02 [0.83–1.24]; I2 = 0.0%). The CV effects did not vary by subgroups or study quality. Conclusions Bisphosphonates do not have beneficial or harmful effects on atherosclerotic CV events, but zoledronic acid may modestly increase the risk of atrial fibrillation. Given the large

  15. A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montewka, Jakub; Krata, Przemysław; Goerland, Floris; Kujala, Pentti

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents a model for risk analysis regarding marine traffic, with the emphasis on two types of the most common marine accidents which are: collision and grounding. The focus is on oil tankers as these pose the highest environmental risk. A case study in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a well-founded formula for risk calculation, which combines the probability of an unwanted event with its consequences. Thus the model is regarded a block type model, consisting of blocks for the probability of collision and grounding estimation respectively as well as blocks for consequences of an accident modelling. Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of a Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based model. The model defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion model and recognizes traffic flow as a non homogeneous process. The presented calculations address waterways crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. For assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a newly developed model, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are recognized. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be modelled by a sort of deterministic formulation. Risk due to tankers running aground addresses an approach fairway to an oil terminal in Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern costs of an oil spill, based on statistics of compensations claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds) by parties involved.

  16. Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) tool to support risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McConnell, Emma R; Bell, Shannon M; Cote, Ila; Wang, Rong-Lin; Perkins, Edward J; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gong, Ping; Burgoon, Lyle D

    2014-01-01

    Environmental health risk assessors are challenged to understand and incorporate new data streams as the field of toxicology continues to adopt new molecular and systems biology technologies. Systematic screening reviews can help risk assessors and assessment teams determine which studies to consider for inclusion in a human health assessment. A tool for systematic reviews should be standardized and transparent in order to consistently determine which studies meet minimum quality criteria prior to performing in-depth analyses of the data. The Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) tool is focused on assisting risk assessment support teams in performing systematic reviews of transcriptomic studies. SOAR is a spreadsheet tool of 35 objective questions developed by domain experts, focused on transcriptomic microarray studies, and including four main topics: test system, test substance, experimental design, and microarray data. The tool will be used as a guide to identify studies that meet basic published quality criteria, such as those defined by the Minimum Information About a Microarray Experiment standard and the Toxicological Data Reliability Assessment Tool. Seven scientists were recruited to test the tool by using it to independently rate 15 published manuscripts that study chemical exposures with microarrays. Using their feedback, questions were weighted based on importance of the information and a suitability cutoff was set for each of the four topic sections. The final validation resulted in 100% agreement between the users on four separate manuscripts, showing that the SOAR tool may be used to facilitate the standardized and transparent screening of microarray literature for environmental human health risk assessment. PMID:25531884

  17. Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) Tool to Support Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    McConnell, Emma R.; Bell, Shannon M.; Cote, Ila; Wang, Rong-Lin; Perkins, Edward J.; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gong, Ping; Burgoon, Lyle D.

    2014-01-01

    Environmental health risk assessors are challenged to understand and incorporate new data streams as the field of toxicology continues to adopt new molecular and systems biology technologies. Systematic screening reviews can help risk assessors and assessment teams determine which studies to consider for inclusion in a human health assessment. A tool for systematic reviews should be standardized and transparent in order to consistently determine which studies meet minimum quality criteria prior to performing in-depth analyses of the data. The Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) tool is focused on assisting risk assessment support teams in performing systematic reviews of transcriptomic studies. SOAR is a spreadsheet tool of 35 objective questions developed by domain experts, focused on transcriptomic microarray studies, and including four main topics: test system, test substance, experimental design, and microarray data. The tool will be used as a guide to identify studies that meet basic published quality criteria, such as those defined by the Minimum Information About a Microarray Experiment standard and the Toxicological Data Reliability Assessment Tool. Seven scientists were recruited to test the tool by using it to independently rate 15 published manuscripts that study chemical exposures with microarrays. Using their feedback, questions were weighted based on importance of the information and a suitability cutoff was set for each of the four topic sections. The final validation resulted in 100% agreement between the users on four separate manuscripts, showing that the SOAR tool may be used to facilitate the standardized and transparent screening of microarray literature for environmental human health risk assessment. PMID:25531884

  18. Development of partial failure analysis method in probability risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Ni, T.; Modarres, M.

    1996-12-01

    This paper presents a new approach to evaluate the partial failure effect on current Probability Risk Assessments (PRAs). An integrated methodology of the thermal-hydraulic analysis and fuzzy logic simulation using the Dynamic Master Logic Diagram (DMLD) was developed. The thermal-hydraulic analysis used in this approach is to identify partial operation effect of any PRA system function in a plant model. The DMLD is used to simulate the system performance of the partial failure effect and inspect all minimal cut sets of system functions. This methodology can be applied in the context of a full scope PRA to reduce core damage frequency. An example of this application of the approach is presented. The partial failure data used in the example is from a survey study of partial failure effects from the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS).

  19. RAVEN, a New Software for Dynamic Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cristian Rabiti; Andrea Alfonsi; Joshua Cogliati; Diego Mandelli; Robert Kinoshita

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN is a generic software driver to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis of code simulating complex systems. Initially developed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the RELAP-7 code [1] is currently being generalized with the addition of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These interfaces are used to extend RAVEN capabilities to any software as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or directly via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable to investigate the system response probing the input space using Monte Carlo, grid strategies, or Latin Hyper Cube schemes, but its strength is its focus toward system feature discovery like limit surfaces separating regions of the input space leading to system failure using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The paper will present an overview of the software capabilities and their implementation schemes followed by same application examples.

  20. Site Response and Liquefaction Risk Analysis for Bucharest, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannich, D.; Ehret, D.; Hoetzl, H.; Grandas, C.; Huber, G.; Bala, A.

    2007-12-01

    Bucharest, the capital of Romania, with more than 2 million inhabitants, is considered, after Istanbul, the second- most earthquake-endangered metropolis in Europe. Four major earthquakes with moment-magnitudes between 6.9 and 7.7 hit Bucharest in the last 65 years. All disastrous earthquakes are generated within a small epicentral area - the Vrancea region - about 150 km northeast of Bucharest. Thick unconsolidated sedimentary layers in the area of Bucharest amplify the arriving seismic shear waves causing severe destruction. Thus, pertinent site response analysis combined with liquefaction risk analysis for the city area are of highest priority for the disaster prevention and mitigation of earthquake effects. Within the frame of the Collaborative Research Center (CRC) 461: "Strong Earthquakes: A Challenge for Geosciences and Civil Engineering, at the University of Karlsruhe, Germany, recently detailed field investigations for the near-surface soil layers in Bucharest were performed. These include Seismic Cone Penetration Tests (SCPTU) and seismic refraction measurements for shallow depths. SCPTU is used to obtain a detailed distribution of the shear wave velocities and in situ state parameters of soils. The results are used for site response analysis with linear and non-linear wave-propagation models as well as for a liquefaction risk analysis. Commonly linear-equivalent models are used to simulate the response of the soil during earthquakes. Nevertheless, the linear-equivalent model cannot reproduce non-linear effects like liquefaction, layer isolation, and consolidation during shaking. Thus, a 1-D wave propagation model was used to study the influence of non- linear effects in the site response analysis. Cone resistance, sleeve friction and pore water pressure registered continuous by the SCPTU method until depths of 35m permit to determine by simplified empirical methods the factor of safety and the probability of liquefaction for different soil layers at

  1. A Hygrothermal Risk Analysis Applied to Residential Unvented Attics

    SciTech Connect

    Pallin, Simon B; Kehrer, Manfred

    2013-01-01

    Aresidential building, constructed with an unvented attic, is acommonroof assembly in the United States.The expected hygrothermal performance and service life of the roof are difficult to estimate due to a number of varying parameters.Typical parameters expected to vary are the climate, direction, and slope of the roof as well as the radiation properties of the surface material. Furthermore, influential parameters are indoor moisture excess, air leakages through the attic floor, and leakages from air-handling unit and ventilation ducts. In addition, the type of building materials such as the insulation material and closed or open cell spray polyurethane foam will influence the future performance of the roof. A development of a simulation model of the roof assembly will enable a risk and sensitivity analysis, in which the most important varying parameters on the hygrothermal performance can be determined. The model is designed to perform probabilistic simulations using mathematical and hygrothermal calculation tools. The varying input parameters can be chosen from existing measurements, simulations, or standards. An analysis is applied to determine the risk of consequences, such as mold growth, rot, or energy demand of the HVAC unit. Furthermore, the future performance of the roof can be simulated in different climates to facilitate the design of an efficient and reliable roof construction with the most suitable technical solution and to determine the most appropriate building materials for a given climate

  2. Post mitigation impact risk analysis for asteroid deflection demonstration missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; Thuillot, William; Bancelin, David; Cano, Juan L.; Cichocki, Filippo

    2015-08-01

    Even though mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts, only the realization of mitigation demonstration missions can validate this claim. Such a deflection demonstration attempt has to be cost effective, easy to validate, and safe in the sense that harmless asteroids must not be turned into potentially hazardous objects. Uncertainties in an asteroid's orbital and physical parameters as well as those additionally introduced during a mitigation attempt necessitate an in depth analysis of deflection mission designs in order to dispel planetary safety concerns. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential kinetic impactor based deflection demonstration missions proposed in the framework of the NEOShield project. Our results confirm that mitigation induced uncertainties have a significant influence on the deflection outcome. Those cannot be neglected in post deflection impact risk studies. We show, furthermore, that deflection missions have to be assessed on an individual basis in order to ensure that asteroids are not inadvertently transported closer to the Earth at a later date. Finally, we present viable targets and mission designs for a kinetic impactor test to be launched between the years 2025 and 2032.

  3. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-05-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges.

  4. Incorporating Classification Uncertainty in Competing- risks Nest- failure Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Nesting birds risk nest failure due to many causes. Though partitioning risk of failure among causes has long been of interest to ornithologists, formal methods for estimating competing risk have been lacking.

  5. Application of fuzzy expert systems for EOR project risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ting-Horng, Chung; Carroll, H.B.; Lindsey, R.

    1995-12-31

    This work describes a new method for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project preassessment. Instead of using the conventional costly simulation approach, a fuzzy expert system was developed. A database of EOR project costs and oil prices of the past decades was incorporated into the expert system. The EOR project risk-analysis includes three stages: (1) preliminary screening of EOR methods, (2) field performance estimation, and (3) economic analysis. Since this fuzzy expert system has incorporated both implemented EOR technology and experts` experience, it thus reduces the requirements of massive laboratory and field data for input. Estimates of displacement efficiency (E{sub d}) and sweep efficiency (E{sub v}) were formulated for each EOR process. E{sub d} and E{sub v} were treated as fuzzy variables. The overall recovery efficiency is evaluated from the product of Ed and Ev using fuzzy set arithmetic. Economic analysis is based on the estimated recovery efficiency, residual oil inplace, oil price, and operating costs. Examples of the application of the developed method for a CO{sub 2}-flooding project analysis is presented.

  6. Poultry consumption and prostate cancer risk: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    He, Qian; Wan, Zheng-ce; Xu, Xiao-bing; Wu, Jing

    2016-01-01

    Background. Several kinds of foods are hypothesized to be potential factors contributing to the variation of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence. But the effect of poultry on PCa is still inconsistent and no quantitative assessment has been published up to date. So we conducted this meta-analysis to clarify the association between them. Materials and Methods. We conducted a literature search of PubMed and Embase for studies examining the association between poultry consumption and PCa up to June, 2015. Pooled risk ratio (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) of the highest versus lowest poultry consumption categories were calculated by fixed-effect model or random-effect model. Results. A total of 27 (12 cohort and 15 case-control) studies comprising 23,703 cases and 469,986 noncases were eligible for inclusion. The summary RR of total PCa incidence was 1.03 (95% CI [0.95–1.11]) for the highest versus lowest categories of poultry intake. The heterogeneity between studies was not statistically significant (P = 0.768, I2 = 28.5%). Synthesized analysis of 11 studies on high stage PCa and 8 studies on chicken exposure also demonstrated null association. We also did not obtain significant association in the subgroup of cohort study (RR = 1.04, 95% CI [0.98–1.10]), as well as in the subgroups of population-based case-control study and hospital-based case-control study. Then the studies were divided into three geographic groups: Western countries, Asia and South America. The pooled RRs in these areas did not reveal statistically significant association between poultry and PCa. Conclusions. This meta-analysis suggests no association between poultry consumption and PCa risk. Further well-designed studies are warranted to confirm the result. PMID:26855875

  7. Application of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework on risk management of sea ports and offshore terminals.

    PubMed

    Mokhtari, Kambiz; Ren, Jun; Roberts, Charles; Wang, Jin

    2011-08-30

    Ports and offshore terminals are critical infrastructure resources and play key roles in the transportation of goods and people. With more than 80 percent of international trade by volume being carried out by sea, ports and offshore terminals are vital for seaborne trade and international commerce. Furthermore in today's uncertain and complex environment there is a need to analyse the participated risk factors in order to prioritise protective measures in these critically logistics infrastructures. As a result of this study is carried out to support the risk assessment phase of the proposed Risk Management (RM) framework used for the purpose of sea ports and offshore terminals operations and management (PTOM). This has been fulfilled by integration of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework into the risk assessment phase as a backbone of the phase. For this reason Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) are used to analyse the risk factors associated within the PTOM. This process will eventually help the port professionals and port risk managers to investigate the identified risk factors more in detail. In order to deal with vagueness of the data Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and possibility approach are used to overcome the disadvantages of the conventional probability based approaches. PMID:21705142

  8. Will HIV Vaccination Reshape HIV Risk Behavior Networks? A Social Network Analysis of Drug Users' Anticipated Risk Compensation

    PubMed Central

    Young, April M.; Halgin, Daniel S.; DiClemente, Ralph J.; Sterk, Claire E.; Havens, Jennifer R.

    2014-01-01

    Background An HIV vaccine could substantially impact the epidemic. However, risk compensation (RC), or post-vaccination increase in risk behavior, could present a major challenge. The methodology used in previous studies of risk compensation has been almost exclusively individual-level in focus, and has not explored how increased risk behavior could affect the connectivity of risk networks. This study examined the impact of anticipated HIV vaccine-related RC on the structure of high-risk drug users' sexual and injection risk network. Methods A sample of 433 rural drug users in the US provided data on their risk relationships (i.e., those involving recent unprotected sex and/or injection equipment sharing). Dyad-specific data were collected on likelihood of increasing/initiating risk behavior if they, their partner, or they and their partner received an HIV vaccine. Using these data and social network analysis, a "post-vaccination network" was constructed and compared to the current network on measures relevant to HIV transmission, including network size, cohesiveness (e.g., diameter, component structure, density), and centrality. Results Participants reported 488 risk relationships. Few reported an intention to decrease condom use or increase equipment sharing (4% and 1%, respectively). RC intent was reported in 30 existing risk relationships and vaccination was anticipated to elicit the formation of five new relationships. RC resulted in a 5% increase in risk network size (n = 142 to n = 149) and a significant increase in network density. The initiation of risk relationships resulted in the connection of otherwise disconnected network components, with the largest doubling in size from five to ten. Conclusions This study demonstrates a new methodological approach to studying RC and reveals that behavior change following HIV vaccination could potentially impact risk network connectivity. These data will be valuable in parameterizing future network models

  9. Approximate Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis with Vine Copulas

    PubMed Central

    Bedford, Tim; Daneshkhah, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Many applications of risk analysis require us to jointly model multiple uncertain quantities. Bayesian networks and copulas are two common approaches to modeling joint uncertainties with probability distributions. This article focuses on new methodologies for copulas by developing work of Cooke, Bedford, Kurowica, and others on vines as a way of constructing higher dimensional distributions that do not suffer from some of the restrictions of alternatives such as the multivariate Gaussian copula. The article provides a fundamental approximation result, demonstrating that we can approximate any density as closely as we like using vines. It further operationalizes this result by showing how minimum information copulas can be used to provide parametric classes of copulas that have such good levels of approximation. We extend previous approaches using vines by considering nonconstant conditional dependencies, which are particularly relevant in financial risk modeling. We discuss how such models may be quantified, in terms of expert judgment or by fitting data, and illustrate the approach by modeling two financial data sets. PMID:26332240

  10. Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Shelhamer, M.

    2016-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

  11. A flexible count data regression model for risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Guikema, Seth D; Coffelt, Jeremy P; Goffelt, Jeremy P

    2008-02-01

    In many cases, risk and reliability analyses involve estimating the probabilities of discrete events such as hardware failures and occurrences of disease or death. There is often additional information in the form of explanatory variables that can be used to help estimate the likelihood of different numbers of events in the future through the use of an appropriate regression model, such as a generalized linear model. However, existing generalized linear models (GLM) are limited in their ability to handle the types of variance structures often encountered in using count data in risk and reliability analysis. In particular, standard models cannot handle both underdispersed data (variance less than the mean) and overdispersed data (variance greater than the mean) in a single coherent modeling framework. This article presents a new GLM based on a reformulation of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COM) distribution that is useful for both underdispersed and overdispersed count data and demonstrates this model by applying it to the assessment of electric power system reliability. The results show that the proposed COM GLM can provide as good of fits to data as the commonly used existing models for overdispered data sets while outperforming these commonly used models for underdispersed data sets. PMID:18304118

  12. Diabetes and Risk of Arterial Stiffness: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

    PubMed

    Xu, Min; Huang, Ya; Xie, Lan; Peng, Kui; Ding, Lin; Lin, Lin; Wang, Po; Hao, Mingli; Chen, Yuhong; Sun, Yimin; Qi, Lu; Wang, Weiqing; Ning, Guang; Bi, Yufang

    2016-06-01

    We aimed to explore the causal association between type 2 diabetes (T2D) and increased arterial stiffness. We performed a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis in 11,385 participants from a well-defined community study in Shanghai during 2011-2013. We genotyped 34 T2D-associated common variants identified in East Asians and created a genetic risk score (GRS). We assessed arterial stiffness noninvasively with the measurement of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV). We used the instrumental variable (IV) estimator to qualify the causal relationship between T2D and increased arterial stiffness. We found each 1-SD increase in T2D_GRS was associated with 6% higher risk in increased arterial stiffness (95% CI 1.01, 1.12), after adjustment of other metabolic confounders. Using T2D_GRS as the IV, we demonstrated a causal relationship between T2D and arterial stiffening (odds ratio 1.24, 95% CI 1.06, 1.47; P = 0.008). When categorizing the genetic loci according to their effect on insulin secretion or resistance, we found genetically determined decrease in insulin secretion was associated with increase in baPWV (βIV = 122.3 cm/s, 95% CI 41.9, 204.6; P = 0.0005). In conclusion, our results provide evidence supporting a causal association between T2D and increased arterial stiffness in a Chinese population. PMID:26953161

  13. Statistical Analysis of Risk Factors in the Prebreathe Reduction Protocol

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gerth, Wayne A.; Gernhardt, Michael L.; Conkin, Johnny; Homick, Jerry L. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The 165 exposures from four 2-hour protocols were analyzed for correlations or trends between decompression sickness (DCS) or venous gas emboli (VGE), and variables that affect risk in the subject and astronaut populations. The assumption in this global survey is that the distributions of gender, age, body mass index, etc., are equally represented in all four tested procedures. We used Student t-test for comparisons between means and chi-square test between comparisons of proportions with p<0.05 defining a significant level. The type and distribution of the 19 cases of DCS were similar to historical cases. There was no correlation of age, gender, body mass index or fitness level with greater incidence of DCS or VGE. However increased age was associated with more Grade IV VGE in males. The duration and quantity of exercise during prebreathe is inversely related to risk of DCS and VGE. The latency time for VGE was longer (103 min +/- 56 SD, n = 15) when the ergometry was done approximately 15 min into the prebreathe than when done at the start of the prebreathe (53 min +/- 31, n = 13). The order of the ergometry did not influence the overall DCS and VGE incidence. We identified variables other than those of the prebreathe procedures that influence the DCS and VGE outcome. The analysis suggests that males over 40 years have a high incidence of Grade IV VGE.

  14. An analysis of clinical risks in vaccine transportation.

    PubMed

    Fernando, Martina

    2004-10-01

    'Cold chain' transport is an integral part of a system of vaccine transportation that assures the potency of vaccines. If the temperature of vaccines is not kept between the ranges of 2 and 8 degrees C, this can lead to adverse effects especially for the recipients of first time immunization, as no protection is offered. This investigation has shown that there is considerable risk of vaccines being rendered impotent due to ad hoc collection of vaccines by healthcare professionals from pharmacy services, outside of the cold chain transport agreement with the vaccine supplier. This is because at present there are no guidelines for ad hoc collection of either vaccines or the approved cold chain equipment provided to transport the vaccine. The root cause analysis has shown that the general practice can manage this risk by making changes to its system for vaccine ordering, stock control and maintenance. A number of changes are proposed, including the appointment of a vaccine coordinator and the development of a protocol for ad hoc collection of vaccines from pharmacy. By focusing on improving the quality of the process, the practice can improve the care and safety of its immunization programme. PMID:15577715

  15. NEW APPROACHES IN RISK ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STRESSORS TO HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explore the application of novel techniques for improving and integrating risk analysis of environmental stressors to human and ecological systems. Environmental protection decisions are guided by risk assessments serving as tools to develop regulatory policy and other relate...

  16. Risk analysis of sustainable urban drainage and irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ursino, Nadia

    2015-09-01

    Urbanization, by creating extended impervious areas, to the detriment of vegetated ones, may have an undesirable influence on the water and energy balances of urban environments. The storage and infiltration capacity of the drainage system lessens the negative influence of urbanization, and vegetated areas help to re-establish pre-development environmental conditions. Resource limitation, climate, leading to increasing water scarcity, demographic and socio-institutional shifts promote more integrated water management. Storm-water harvesting for landscape irrigation mitigates possible water restrictions for the urban population in drought scenarios. A new probabilistic model for sustainable rainfall drainage, storage and re-use systems was implemented in this study. Risk analysis of multipurpose storage capacities was generalized by the use of only a few dimensionless parameters and applied to a case study in a Mediterranean-type climate, although the applicability of the model is not restricted to any particular climatic type.

  17. Precursor Analysis for Flight- and Ground-Based Anomaly Risk Significance Determination

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groen, Frank

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the precursor analysis for flight and ground based anomaly risk significance. It includes information on accident precursor analysis, real models vs. models, and probabilistic analysis.

  18. Risk of Window Period HIV Infection in High Infectious Risk Donors: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kucirka, Lauren M.; Sarathy, Harini; Govindan, Priyanka; Wolf, Joshua H.; Ellison, Trevor A.; Hart, Leah J.; Montgomery, Robert A.; Ros, R. Lorie; Segev, Dorry L.

    2010-01-01

    The OPTN defines high risk donors (HRDs), colloquially known as “CDC high risk donors,” as those thought to carry an increased risk of HIV window period (WP) infection prior to serologic detectability. However, the true risk of such infection remains unknown. To quantify the risk of WP infection in each HRD behavior category, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of HIV prevalence and incidence. Of 3,476 abstracts reviewed, 27 eligible studies of HIV infection in HRD populations were identified. Pooled HIV incidence estimates were calculated for each category of HRD behavior and used to calculate the risk of WP HIV infection. Risks ranged from 0.09–12.1 per 10,000 donors based on WP for ELISA and 0.04–4.9 based on nucleic acid testing (NAT), with NAT reducing WP risk by over 50% in each category. Injection drug users had the greatest risk of WP infection (4.9 per 10,000 donors by NAT WP), followed by men who have sex with men (4.2:10,000), commercial sex workers (2.7:10,000), incarcerated donors (0.9:10,000), donors exposed to HIV through blood (0.6:10,000), donors engaging in high risk sex (0.3:10,000), and hemophiliacs (0.035:10,000). These estimates can help inform patient and provider decision-making regarding HRDs. PMID:21366859

  19. Peer Review of NRC Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect

    Anthony Koonce; James Knudsen; Robert Buell

    2011-03-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Models underwent a Peer Review using ASME PRA standard (Addendum C) as endorsed by NRC in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.200. The review was performed by a mix of industry probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) experts and NRC PRA experts. Representative SPAR models, one PWR and one BWR, were reviewed against Capability Category I of the ASME PRA standard. Capability Category I was selected as the basis for review due to the specific uses/applications of the SPAR models. The BWR SPAR model was reviewed against 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements; however, based on the Capability Category I level of review and the absence of internal flooding and containment performance (LERF) logic only 216 requirements were determined to be applicable. Based on the review, the BWR SPAR model met 139 of the 216 supporting requirements. The review also generated 200 findings or suggestions. Of these 200 findings and suggestions 142 were findings and 58 were suggestions. The PWR SPAR model was also evaluated against the same 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements. Of these requirements only 215 were deemed appropriate for the review (for the same reason as noted for the BWR). The PWR review determined that 125 of the 215 supporting requirements met Capability Category I or greater. The review identified 101 findings or suggestions (76 findings and 25 suggestions). These findings or suggestions were developed to identify areas where SPAR models could be enhanced. A process to prioritize and incorporate the findings/suggestions supporting requirements into the SPAR models is being developed. The prioritization process focuses on those findings that will enhance the accuracy, completeness and usability of the SPAR models.

  20. Security risk assessment: applying the concepts of fuzzy logic.

    PubMed

    Bajpai, Shailendra; Sachdeva, Anish; Gupta, J P

    2010-01-15

    Chemical process industries (CPI) handling hazardous chemicals in bulk can be attractive targets for deliberate adversarial actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. It is therefore imperative to have comprehensive security risk management programme including effective security risk assessment techniques. In an earlier work, it has been shown that security risk assessment can be done by conducting threat and vulnerability analysis or by developing Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT). HAZOP type vulnerability assessment sheets can be developed that are scenario based. In SRFT model, important security risk bearing factors such as location, ownership, visibility, inventory, etc., have been used. In this paper, the earlier developed SRFT model has been modified using the concepts of fuzzy logic. In the modified SRFT model, two linguistic fuzzy scales (three-point and four-point) are devised based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Human subjectivity of different experts associated with previous SRFT model is tackled by mapping their scores to the newly devised fuzzy scale. Finally, the fuzzy score thus obtained is defuzzyfied to get the results. A test case of a refinery is used to explain the method and compared with the earlier work. PMID:19744788

  1. An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

    PubMed

    Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

    2011-07-01

    In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. PMID:21231949

  2. Excimer laser coronary angioplasty: relative risk analysis of clinical results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bittl, John A.

    1992-08-01

    Reports of successful use of excimer laser coronary angioplasty for complex coronary artery disease abound, yet firm indications for its use have not been defined. We attempted to treat 858 coronary stenoses in 764 consecutive patients (mean age 61 years; range 32 - 91 years; 75% men; 76% with Class III or IV angina) with excimer laser angioplasty at 308 nm. Successful treatment was achieved in 86% of patients, as indicated by risk analysis. This showed that certain angiographic features, such as lesions at a vessel bifurcation (odds ratio, OR equals 0.46; 95% confidence interval 0.23, 0.88; P equals 0.017;) or in a tortuous segment (OR equals 0.54; 95% CI equals 0.34, 0.88; P equals 0.041), have decreased likelihood of clinical success. On the other hand, ostial stenoses (OR equals 1.06; 95% CI equals 0.44, 2.56, P equals 0.903) and saphenous vein graft lesions (OR equals 2.17; 95% CI equals 0.98, 4.82; P equals 0.051) have acceptable success rates. Diffuse disease (> 20 mm), total occlusions and calcified lesions were treated as successfully as all other lesion types. Successful treatment with excimer laser coronary angioplasty was also achieved in almost all patients (15/16) who had a prior unsuccessful attempt at balloon angioplasty in the lesion was crossed with a guidewire yet resists either balloon catheter passage or full dilatation. Follow-up angiography was obtained in 70% of eligible patients. Angiographic restenosis, defined by > 50% stenosis, was seen in 60% of patients. Relative risk analysis showed an increased risk of restenosis when adjunctive balloon angioplasty was not used (OR equals 1.68; 95% CI equals 1.02, 2.28; P equals 0.039). Other variables known to affect the outcome of balloon angioplasty, such as lesion length or stenosis in degenerated saphenous vein bypass graft, did not influence the

  3. Imminent cardiac risk assessment via optical intravascular biochemical analysis.

    PubMed

    Wetzel, David L; Wetzel, Louis H; Wetzel, Mark D; Lodder, Robert A

    2009-06-01

    Heart disease is by far the biggest killer in the United States, and type II diabetes, which affects 8% of the U.S. population, is on the rise. In many cases, the acute coronary syndrome and/or sudden cardiac death occurs without warning. Atherosclerosis has known behavioral, genetic and dietary risk factors. However, our laboratory studies with animal models and human post-mortem tissue using FT-IR microspectroscopy reveal the chemical microstructure within arteries and in the arterial walls themselves. These include spectra obtained from the aortas of ApoE-/- knockout mice on sucrose and normal diets showing lipid deposition in the former case. Also pre-aneurysm chemical images of knockout mouse aorta walls, and spectra of plaque excised from a living human patient are shown for comparison. In keeping with the theme of the SPEC 2008 conference 'Spectroscopic Diagnosis of Disease...' this paper describes the background and potential value of a new catheter-based system to provide in vivo biochemical analysis of plaque in human coronary arteries. We report the following: (1) results of FT-IR microspectroscopy on animal models of vascular disease to illustrate the localized chemical distinctions between pathological and normal tissue, (2) current diagnostic techniques used for risk assessment of patients with potential unstable coronary syndromes, and (3) the advantages and limitations of each of these techniques illustrated with patent care histories, related in the first person, by the physician coauthors. Note that the physician comments clarify the contribution of each diagnostic technique to imminent cardiac risk assessment in a clinical setting, leading to the appreciation of what localized intravascular chemical analysis can contribute as an add-on diagnostic tool. The quality of medical imaging has improved dramatically since the turn of the century. Among clinical non-invasive diagnostic tools, laboratory tests of body fluids, EKG, and physical examination

  4. Imminent Cardiac Risk Assessment via Optical Intravascular Biochemical Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Wetzel, D.; Wetzel, L; Wetzel, M; Lodder, R

    2009-01-01

    Heart disease is by far the biggest killer in the United States, and type II diabetes, which affects 8% of the U.S. population, is on the rise. In many cases, the acute coronary syndrome and/or sudden cardiac death occurs without warning. Atherosclerosis has known behavioral, genetic and dietary risk factors. However, our laboratory studies with animal models and human post-mortem tissue using FT-IR microspectroscopy reveal the chemical microstructure within arteries and in the arterial walls themselves. These include spectra obtained from the aortas of ApoE-/- knockout mice on sucrose and normal diets showing lipid deposition in the former case. Also pre-aneurysm chemical images of knockout mouse aorta walls, and spectra of plaque excised from a living human patient are shown for comparison. In keeping with the theme of the SPEC 2008 conference Spectroscopic Diagnosis of Disease this paper describes the background and potential value of a new catheter-based system to provide in vivo biochemical analysis of plaque in human coronary arteries. We report the following: (1) results of FT-IR microspectroscopy on animal models of vascular disease to illustrate the localized chemical distinctions between pathological and normal tissue, (2) current diagnostic techniques used for risk assessment of patients with potential unstable coronary syndromes, and (3) the advantages and limitations of each of these techniques illustrated with patent care histories, related in the first person, by the physician coauthors. Note that the physician comments clarify the contribution of each diagnostic technique to imminent cardiac risk assessment in a clinical setting, leading to the appreciation of what localized intravascular chemical analysis can contribute as an add-on diagnostic tool. The quality of medical imaging has improved dramatically since the turn of the century. Among clinical non-invasive diagnostic tools, laboratory tests of body fluids, EKG, and physical examination are

  5. Risk factors for temporomandibular disorder: Binary logistic regression analysis

    PubMed Central

    Magalhães, Bruno G.; de-Sousa, Stéphanie T.; de Mello, Victor V C.; da-Silva-Barbosa, André C.; de-Assis-Morais, Mariana P L.; Barbosa-Vasconcelos, Márcia M V.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To analyze the influence of socioeconomic and demographic factors (gender, economic class, age and marital status) on the occurrence of temporomandibular disorder. Study Design: One hundred individuals from urban areas in the city of Recife (Brazil) registered at Family Health Units was examined using Axis I of the Research Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders (RDC/TMD) which addresses myofascial pain and joint problems (disc displacement, arthralgia, osteoarthritis and oesteoarthrosis). The Brazilian Economic Classification Criteria (CCEB) was used for the collection of socioeconomic and demographic data. Then, it was categorized as Class A (high social class), Classes B/C (middle class) and Classes D/E (very poor social class). The results were analyzed using Pearson’s chi-square test for proportions, Fisher’s exact test, nonparametric Mann-Whitney test and Binary logistic regression analysis. Results: None of the participants belonged to Class A, 72% belonged to Classes B/C and 28% belonged to Classes D/E. The multivariate analysis revealed that participants from Classes D/E had a 4.35-fold greater chance of exhibiting myofascial pain and 11.3-fold greater chance of exhibiting joint problems. Conclusions: Poverty is a important condition to exhibit myofascial pain and joint problems. Key words:Temporomandibular joint disorders, risk factors, prevalence. PMID:24316706

  6. Mothers' power assertion; children's negative, adversarial orientation; and future behavior problems in low-income families: early maternal responsiveness as a moderator of the developmental cascade.

    PubMed

    Kim, Sanghag; Kochanska, Grazyna

    2015-02-01

    Parental power assertion, a key dimension of family environment, generally sets in motion detrimental developmental cascades; however, evidence suggests that other qualities of parenting, such as responsiveness, can significantly moderate those processes. Mechanisms that account for such moderating effects are not fully understood. We propose a conceptual model of processes linking parental power assertion, parental responsiveness, children's negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the parent, and behavior problems. We test that model in a short-term longitudinal design involving 186 low-income, ethnically diverse mothers and their toddlers. When children were 30 months, the dyads were observed in multiple, lengthy, naturalistic laboratory interactions to assess behaviorally mothers' responsiveness and their power-assertive control style. At 33 months, we observed behavioral indicators of children's negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the mothers in several naturalistic and standardized paradigms. At 40 months, mothers rated children's behavior problems. The proposed moderated mediation sequence, tested using a new approach, PROCESS (Hayes, 2013), was supported. The indirect effect from maternal power assertion to children's negative, adversarial orientation to future behavior problems was present when mothers' responsiveness was either low or average but absent when mothers were highly responsive. This study elucidates a potential process that may link parental power assertion with behavior problems and highlights how positive aspects of parenting can moderate this process and defuse maladaptive developmental cascades. It also suggests possible targets for parenting intervention and prevention efforts. PMID:25401483

  7. Mothers’ Power Assertion, Children’s Negative, Adversarial Orientation, and Future Behavior Problems in Low-Income Families: Early Maternal Responsiveness as a Moderator of the Developmental Cascade

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sanghag; Kochanska, Grazyna

    2014-01-01

    Parental power assertion, a key dimension of family environment, generally sets in motion detrimental developmental cascades; however, evidence suggests that other qualities of parenting, such as responsiveness, can significantly moderate those processes. Mechanisms that account for such moderating effects are not fully understood. We propose a conceptual model of processes linking parental power assertion, parental responsiveness, children’s negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the parent, and behavior problems. We test that model in a short-term longitudinal design involving 186 low-income, ethnically diverse mothers and their toddlers. When children were 30 months, the dyads were observed in multiple, lengthy, naturalistic laboratory interactions to assess behaviorally mothers’ responsiveness and their power-assertive control style. At 33 months, we observed behavioral indicators of children’s negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the mothers in several naturalistic and standardized paradigms. At 40 months, mothers rated children’s behavior problems. The proposed moderated mediation sequence, tested using a new approach, PROCESS (Hayes, 2013), was supported. The indirect effect from maternal power assertion to children’s negative, adversarial orientation to future behavior problems was present when mothers’ responsiveness was either low or average but absent when mothers were highly responsive. This study elucidates a potential process that may link parental power assertion with behavior problems and highlights how positive aspects of parenting can moderate this process and defuse maladaptive developmental cascades. It also suggests possible targets for parenting intervention and prevention efforts. PMID:25401483

  8. INDICATORS OF RISK: AN ANALYSIS APPROACH FOR IMPROVED RIVER MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A risk index is an approach to measuring the level of risk to the plants and/or animals (biota) in a certain area using water and habitat quality information. A new technique for developing risk indices was applied to data collected from Mid-Atlantic streams of the U.S. during 1...

  9. Risk Profiles of Children Entering Residential Care: A Cluster Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagaman, Jessica L.; Trout, Alexandra L.; Chmelka, M. Beth; Thompson, Ronald W.; Reid, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Children in residential care are a heterogeneous population, presenting various combinations of risks. Existing studies on these children suggest high variability across multiple domains (e.g., academics, behavior). Given this heterogeneity, it is important to begin to identify the combinations and patterns of multiple risks, or risk profiles,…

  10. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory. PMID:25828551

  11. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  12. A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

    2005-01-01

    Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

  13. Graduate Education in Risk Analysis for Food, Agriculture, and Veterinary Medicine: Challenges and Opportunities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Correia, Ana-Paula; Wolt, Jeffrey D.

    2010-01-01

    The notion of risk in relation to food and food production has heightened the need to educate students to effectively deal with risk in relation to decision making from a science-based perspective. Curricula and related materials were developed and adopted to support graduate learning opportunities in risk analysis and decision making as applied…

  14. [Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

    PubMed

    Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

    2014-08-01

    A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality. PMID:25509315

  15. Advanced probabilistic risk analysis using RAVEN and RELAP-7

    SciTech Connect

    Rabiti, Cristian; Alfonsi, Andrea; Mandelli, Diego; Cogliati, Joshua; Kinoshita, Robert

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN, under the support of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program [1], is advancing its capability to perform statistical analyses of stochastic dynamic systems. This is aligned with its mission to provide the tools needed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) path-lead [2] under the Department Of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability program [3]. In particular this task is focused on the synergetic development with the RELAP-7 [4] code to advance the state of the art on the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (NPP). The investigation of the probabilistic evolution of accident scenarios for a complex system such as a nuclear power plant is not a trivial challenge. The complexity of the system to be modeled leads to demanding computational requirements even to simulate one of the many possible evolutions of an accident scenario (tens of CPU/hour). At the same time, the probabilistic analysis requires thousands of runs to investigate outcomes characterized by low probability and severe consequence (tail problem). The milestone reported in June of 2013 [5] described the capability of RAVEN to implement complex control logic and provide an adequate support for the exploration of the probabilistic space using a Monte Carlo sampling strategy. Unfortunately the Monte Carlo approach is ineffective with a problem of this complexity. In the following year of development, the RAVEN code has been extended with more sophisticated sampling strategies (grids, Latin Hypercube, and adaptive sampling). This milestone report illustrates the effectiveness of those methodologies in performing the assessment of the probability of core damage following the onset of a Station Black Out (SBO) situation in a boiling water reactor (BWR). The first part of the report provides an overview of the available probabilistic analysis capabilities, ranging from the different types of distributions available, possible sampling

  16. [Risk communication in analysis of occupational health risk for industrial workers].

    PubMed

    Barg, A O; Lebedeva-Nesevrya, N A

    2015-01-01

    The article covers problems of risk communication system function on industrial enterprise. Sociologic study in machinery construction enterprise of Perm area helped to consider main procedures of informing on occupational risk for health of workers exposed to occupational hazards, to describe features and mechanisms of risk communication, to specify its model. The authors proved that main obstacles for efficient system of occupational risks communication are insufficiently thorough legal basis, low corporative social responsibility of the enterprise and low social value of health for workers. This article was prepared with the support of the Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation (Project No. 14-16-59011). PMID:26596113

  17. Integrating input output analysis with risk assessment to evaluate the population risk of arsenic.

    PubMed

    Ma, Hwong-Wen; Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Hung, Ming-Lung; Chao, Chia-Wei; Li, Pei-Chiun

    2012-01-17

    Multimedia and site-specific risk assessments (RA) of major sources releasing arsenic (As) were converted into sector-based risk coefficients, which were integrated with the Input Output Table (IO) to analyze the association between sector activities and health risks. The developed IO-RA framework is a valuable tool for unfolding the risk chain linking the receptors, exposure pathways, emission sources, and production and consumption activities associated with various industrial sectors. The enlarged decision space along the chain can then be considered in planning risk management strategies. This case study estimates that air emissions of As result in 1.54 carcinogenic cases. Export is the primary driving force and accounts for approximately 48% of the final demand that leads to population risks of As. The ranking of the contribution of the five sectors in terms of total population risks is as follows: electricity supply (1.06E+00), steelmaking (2.2 × 10(-1)), cement kilns (1.50 × 10(-1)), semiconductor manufacturing (6.34 × 10(-2)) and incinerators (4.31 × 10(-2)). The electricity supply, steelmaking industry, and cement kilns are the major sectors, not only because their emissions directly cause risk but also because they have a stronger influence on the risk generated by other sectors. PMID:22192073

  18. Simplified plant analysis risk (SPAR) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology: Comparisons with other HRA methods

    SciTech Connect

    J. C. Byers; D. I. Gertman; S. G. Hill; H. S. Blackman; C. D. Gentillon; B. P. Hallbert; L. N. Haney

    2000-07-31

    The 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology was developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) in 1994 by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). It was decided to revise that methodology for use by the Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) program. The 1994 ASP HRA methodology was compared, by a team of analysts, on a point-by-point basis to a variety of other HRA methods and sources. This paper briefly discusses how the comparisons were made and how the 1994 ASP HRA methodology was revised to incorporate desirable aspects of other methods. The revised methodology was renamed the SPAR HRA methodology.

  19. Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Methodology: Comparisons with other HRA Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Byers, James Clifford; Gertman, David Ira; Hill, Susan Gardiner; Blackman, Harold Stabler; Gentillon, Cynthia Ann; Hallbert, Bruce Perry; Haney, Lon Nolan

    2000-08-01

    The 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology was developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) in 1994 by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). It was decided to revise that methodology for use by the Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) program. The 1994 ASP HRA methodology was compared, by a team of analysts, on a point-by-point basis to a variety of other HRA methods and sources. This paper briefly discusses how the comparisons were made and how the 1994 ASP HRA methodology was revised to incorporate desirable aspects of other methods. The revised methodology was renamed the SPAR HRA methodology.

  20. 3M corporate incinerator environmental monitoring study and risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Stevens, J.B.; Elnabarawy, M.T.; Pilney, J.

    1998-12-31

    A one-year multi-media environmental monitoring study was performed around the 3M Cottage Grove Facility. Particulate metals from the 3M Corporate hazardous waste incinerator were the focus of the study. Two environmental media were of primary interest: area soil sampling was conducted to investigate the impact of past incinerator emissions on the environment, and ambient air monitoring was conducted to address current impacts. Over 180 soil samples were taken from both agricultural and forested land in the vicinity of the Facility. More than 25 chemical parameters were then quantified in the samples. The potential impacts of past emissions from the incinerator were assessed by comparing chemical concentrations from locations where incinerator impacts were expected to be greatest (based on air dispersion modeling) to chemical concentrations in matched samples from sites expected to be least impacted. The ambient air monitoring network consisted of six stations. Source-receptor modeling was used to determine the most likely contribution of the incinerator and six additional major area sources for the air monitoring (i.e. filter) data at each station. The model provided a best-fit analysis regarding the likely contributions of each source to the sample results. The results of these evaluations lead to the conclusion that the current emissions from this Facility do not present an unacceptable risk to human health.

  1. Framework for risk analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES)

    SciTech Connect

    Whelan, G.; Buck, J.W.; Castleton, K.J.; Hoopes, B.L.; Pelton, M.A.; McDonald, J.P.; Gelston, G.M.; Taira, R.Y.

    1998-05-01

    The objectives of this workshop are to (1) provide the NRC staff and the public with an overview of currently available Federally-Sponsored dose models appropriate for decommissioning assessments and (2) discuss NRC staff-developed questions related to model selection criteria with the final rule on ``Radiological Criteria for License Termination`` (62 FR 39058). For over 40 years, medium specific models have been and will continue to be developed in an effort to understand and predict environmental phenomena, including fluid-flow patterns, contaminant migration and fate, human or wildlife exposures, impacts from specific toxicants to specific species and their organs, cost-benefit analyses, impacts from remediation alternatives, etc. For nearly 40 years, medium-specific models have been combined for either sequential or concurrent assessments. The evolution of multiple-media assessment tools has followed a logic progression. To allow a suite of users the flexibility and versatility to construct, combine, and couple attributes that meet their specific needs without unnecessarily burdening the user with extraneous capabilities, the development of a computer-based methodology to implement a Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) was begun in 1994. FRAMES represents a platform which links elements together and yet does not represent the models that are linked to or within it; therefore, changes to elements that are linked to or within FRAMES do not change the framework.

  2. Risk analysis of tyramine concentration in food production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doudová, L.; Buňka, F.; Michálek, J.; Sedlačík, M.; Buňková, L.

    2013-10-01

    The contribution is focused on risk analysis in food microbiology. This paper evaluates the effect of selected factors on tyramine production in bacterial strains of Lactococcus genus which were assigned as tyramine producers. Tyramine is a biogenic amine sythesized from an amino acid called tyrosine. It can be found in certain foodstuffs (often in cheese), and can cause a pseudo-response in sensitive individuals. The above-mentioned bacteria are commonly used in the biotechnological process of cheese production as starter cultures. The levels of factors were chosen with respect to the conditions which can occur in this technological process. To describe and compare tyramine production in chosen microorganisms, generalized regression models were applied. Tyramine production was modelled by Gompertz curves according to the selected factors (the lactose concentration of 0-1% w/v, NaCl 0-2% w/v and aero/anaerobiosis) for 3 different types of bacterial cultivation. Moreover, estimates of model parameters were calculated and tested; multiple comparisons were discussed as well. The aim of this paper is to find a combination of factors leading to a similar tyramine production level.

  3. Risk analysis systems for veterinary biologicals: a regulator's tool box.

    PubMed

    Osborne, C G; McElvaine, M D; Ahl, A S; Glosser, J W

    1995-12-01

    Recent advances in biology and technology have significantly improved our ability to produce veterinary biologicals of high purity, efficacy and safety, virtually anywhere in the world. At the same time, increasing trade and comprehensive trade agreements, such as the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT: now the World Trade Organisation [WTO]), have put pressure on governments to use scientific principles in the regulation of trade for a wide range of products, including veterinary biologicals. In many cases, however, nations have been reluctant to allow the movement of veterinary biologicals, due to the perceived threat of importing an exotic disease. This paper discusses the history of risk analysis as a decision support tool and provides examples of how this tool may be used in a science-based regulatory system for veterinary biologicals. A wide variety of tools are described, including qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative methods, most with a long history of use in engineering and the health and environmental sciences. PMID:8639961

  4. Reliability and risk analysis using artificial neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Robinson, D.G.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses preliminary research at Sandia National Laboratories into the application of artificial neural networks for reliability and risk analysis. The goal of this effort is to develop a reliability based methodology that captures the complex relationship between uncertainty in material properties and manufacturing processes and the resulting uncertainty in life prediction estimates. The inputs to the neural network model are probability density functions describing system characteristics and the output is a statistical description of system performance. The most recent application of this methodology involves the comparison of various low-residue, lead-free soldering processes with the desire to minimize the associated waste streams with no reduction in product reliability. Model inputs include statistical descriptions of various material properties such as the coefficients of thermal expansion of solder and substrate. Consideration is also given to stochastic variation in the operational environment to which the electronic components might be exposed. Model output includes a probabilistic characterization of the fatigue life of the surface mounted component.

  5. Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    C. Robert Kenley; John W. Collins; John M. Beck; Harold J. Heydt; Chad B. Garcia

    2001-10-01

    This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.

  6. Adversary phase change detection using S.O.M. and text data.

    SciTech Connect

    Speed, Ann Elizabeth; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Warrender, Christina E.

    2010-09-01

    In this work, we developed a self-organizing map (SOM) technique for using web-based text analysis to forecast when a group is undergoing a phase change. By 'phase change', we mean that an organization has fundamentally shifted attitudes or behaviors. For instance, when ice melts into water, the characteristics of the substance change. A formerly peaceful group may suddenly adopt violence, or a violent organization may unexpectedly agree to a ceasefire. SOM techniques were used to analyze text obtained from organization postings on the world-wide web. Results suggest it may be possible to forecast phase changes, and determine if an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.

  7. Adversary phase change detection using S.O.M. and text data.

    SciTech Connect

    Speed, Ann Elizabeth; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Warrender, Christina E.

    2011-01-01

    In this work, we developed a self-organizing map (SOM) technique for using web-based text analysis to forecast when a group is undergoing a phase change. By 'phase change', we mean that an organization has fundamentally shifted attitudes or behaviors. For instance, when ice melts into water, the characteristics of the substance change. A formerly peaceful group may suddenly adopt violence, or a violent organization may unexpectedly agree to a ceasefire. SOM techniques were used to analyze text obtained from organization postings on the world-wide web. Results suggest it may be possible to forecast phase changes, and determine if an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.

  8. Improving uncertainty analysis in European Union risk assessment of chemicals.

    PubMed

    Verdonck, Frederik A M; Souren, Astrid; van Asselt, Marjolein B A; Van Sprang, Patrick A; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

    2007-07-01

    Handling uncertainty in curren European Union (EU) risk assessment of new and existing substances is problematic for several reasons. The known or quantifiable sources of uncertainty are mainly considered. Uncertainty is insufficiently, explicitly communicated to risk managers and decision makers but hidden and concealed in risk quotient numbers that appear to be certain and, therefore, create a false sense of certainty and protectiveness. The new EU chemical policy legislation, REACH, is an opportunity to learn from interdisciplinary thinking in order to evolve to smart risk assessment: an assessment in which awareness and openness to uncertainty is used to produce better characterizations and evaluations of risks. In a smart risk assessment context, quantifying uncertainty is not an aim but just a productive means to refine the assessment or to find alternative solutions for the problem at stake. Guidance and examples are given on how to differentiate, assess, and use uncertainty. PMID:17695106

  9. Smoking and fracture risk: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Kanis, J A; Johnell, O; Oden, A; Johansson, H; De Laet, C; Eisman, J A; Fujiwara, S; Kroger, H; McCloskey, E V; Mellstrom, D; Melton, L J; Pols, H; Reeve, J; Silman, A; Tenenhouse, A

    2005-02-01

    Smoking is widely considered a risk factor for future fracture. The aim of this study was to quantify this risk on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex and bone mineral density (BMD). We studied 59,232 men and women (74% female) from ten prospective cohorts comprising EVOS/EPOS, DOES, CaMos, Rochester, Sheffield, Rotterdam, Kuopio, Hiroshima and two cohorts from Gothenburg. Cohorts were followed for a total of 250,000 person-years. The effect of current or past smoking, on the risk of any fracture, any osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture alone was examined using a Poisson model for each sex from each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex and BMD. The results of the different studies were merged using the weighted beta-coefficients. Current smoking was associated with a significantly increased risk of any fracture compared to non-smokers (RR=1.25; 95% Confidence Interval (CI)=1.15-1.36). Risk ratio (RR) was adjusted marginally downward when account was taken of BMD, but it remained significantly increased (RR=1.13). For an osteoporotic fracture, the risk was marginally higher (RR=1.29; 95% CI=1.13-1.28). The highest risk was observed for hip fracture (RR=1.84; 95% CI=1.52-2.22), but this was also somewhat lower after adjustment for BMD (RR=1.60; 95% CI=1.27-2.02). Risk ratios were significantly higher in men than in women for all fractures and for osteoporotic fractures, but not for hip fracture. Low BMD accounted for only 23% of the smoking-related risk of hip fracture. Adjustment for body mass index had a small downward effect on risk for all fracture outcomes. For osteoporotic fracture, the risk ratio increased with age, but decreased with age for hip fracture. A smoking history was associated with a significantly increased risk of fracture compared with individuals with no smoking history, but the risk ratios were lower than for current smoking. We conclude that a history of smoking results in fracture risk

  10. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  11. The role of the expert witness in the adversarial legal system.

    PubMed

    Beran, Roy G

    2009-08-01

    So often we hear the legal profession berate expert witnesses as "hired guns" whose bias is for sale. While this may be relevant to a small minority of "experts", the majority do their job with integrity and in an ethical fashion. An advocate for a proposition will not call a witness to support a claim if it is clear that the witness holds an opposing view. It follows that the bias emanates from the lawyer, not the witness. A witness without a formed view cannot truly claim to be an expert, as the expert should have sufficient knowledge to form an opinion. Once that opinion has been expressed and justified, the lawyer will select the most persuasive and cogently constructed opinion with which to convince the court. The expert witness must commence the assessment without bias or favour; must collect her or his history and examination of the relevant material; evaluate all the facts and evidence provided for scrutiny; seek additional material where there appears to be a deficiency; and draw on all of these data to formulate an opinion in response to questions posed by the instructing lawyer. The expert need not support or refute the stance proposed by the lawyer but the lawyer will only use those opinions favourable to the lawyer's case and hold the remainder as privileged where even that option prevails. It follows that the role of the expert is to provide a well-prepared analysis; it is the lawyer who is paid to be biased. PMID:19771993

  12. 75 FR 6345 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh False Coriander From...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-09

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation into the continental... Panama. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. DATES:...

  13. 75 FR 78207 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Rambutan Fruit...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-15

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation into the continental... importation of fresh rambutan fruit from Malaysia and Vietnam. We are making the pest risk analysis...

  14. Meta-analysis of studies using statins as a reducer for primary liver cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Zhong, Guo-Chao; Liu, Yan; Ye, Yuan-Yuan; Hao, Fa-Bao; Wang, Kang; Gong, Jian-Ping

    2016-01-01

    A protective effect of statins on primary liver cancer (PLC) risk has been suggested. However, issues about the dose–response relationship, the protective effect of individual statins, and PLC risk reduction among at-risk populations remain unsolved. Therefore, a meta-analysis was conducted. PubMed and EMBASE were searched for studies providing the risk ratio (RR) on statins and PLC risk. Summary RRs were calculated using a random-effects model. Twenty-five studies were identified. Stain use was significantly associated with a reduced risk of PLC (RR = 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.53–0.69). The summary RR for every additional 50 cumulative defined daily doses per year was 0.87 (95% CI = 0.83–0.91). Evidence of a non-linear dose–response relationship between statins and PLC risk was found (Pnon-linearity < 0.01). All individual statins significantly reduced PLC risk, and the risk reduction was more evident with rosuvastatin. The inverse association between statins and PLC risk remained among populations with common risk factors. Subgroup analyses revealed more significant reduction in PLC risk by statins in high- versus non-high-risk populations (Pinteraction = 0.02). Overall, these findings add to our understanding of the association between statins and PLC risk. Whether statin use is causally associated with a reduced risk of PLC should be further studied. PMID:27198922

  15. Empirical analysis of farmers' drought risk perception: objective factors, personal circumstances, and social influence.

    PubMed

    Duinen, Rianne van; Filatova, Tatiana; Geurts, Peter; Veen, Anne van der

    2015-04-01

    Drought-induced water shortage and salinization are a global threat to agricultural production. With climate change, drought risk is expected to increase as drought events are assumed to occur more frequently and to become more severe. The agricultural sector's adaptive capacity largely depends on farmers' drought risk perceptions. Understanding the formation of farmers' drought risk perceptions is a prerequisite to designing effective and efficient public drought risk management strategies. Various strands of literature point at different factors shaping individual risk perceptions. Economic theory points at objective risk variables, whereas psychology and sociology identify subjective risk variables. This study investigates and compares the contribution of objective and subjective factors in explaining farmers' drought risk perception by means of survey data analysis. Data on risk perceptions, farm characteristics, and various other personality traits were collected from farmers located in the southwest Netherlands. From comparing the explanatory power of objective and subjective risk factors in separate models and a full model of risk perception, it can be concluded that farmers' risk perceptions are shaped by both rational and emotional factors. In a full risk perception model, being located in an area with external water supply, owning fields with salinization issues, cultivating drought-/salt-sensitive crops, farm revenue, drought risk experience, and perceived control are significant explanatory variables of farmers' drought risk perceptions. PMID:25514996

  16. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-12-31

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risk from postulated options or endstates. Comparative Risk Analysis is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remedial options or future endstates. It addresses the cumulative risks imposed by the Rocky Flats Plant and provides risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures. Currently, there is no approved methodology that aggregates various risk estimates. Along with academic and field expert review, the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology is being reviewed and refined. A Rocky Flats Plant Risk Assessment Focus Group was established. Stakeholder involvement in the development provides an opportunity to influence the information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the methodology.

  17. Analysis of the individual risk of altitude decompression sickness under repeated exposures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kumar, K. Vasantha; Horrigan, David J.; Waligora, James M.; Gilbert, John H.

    1991-01-01

    In a case-control study, researchers examined the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in individual subjects with higher number of exposures. Of the 126 subjects, 42 showed one or more episodes of DCS. Examination of the exposure-DCS relationship by odds ratio showed a linear relationship. Stratification analysis showed that sex, tissue ratio, and the presence of Doppler microbubbles were cofounders of this risk. A higher number of exposures increased the risk of DCS in this analysis.

  18. 75 FR 74007 - Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Risk Analysis Protocol

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-11-30

    ... published in the Federal Register on August 31, 2010 (75 FR 53273). The period of public comment expired on... Risk Analysis Protocol AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and... finalized Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Risk Analysis Protocol (Protocol), developed by...

  19. NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scroggins, Sharon; Duda, Kristen

    2008-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of NASA's risk analysis communication programs associated with changing environmental policies. The topics include: 1) NASA Program Transition; 2) Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC); and 3) Regulatory Tracking and Communication Process.

  20. 49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This...) and (d), a route may include the point where the carrier takes possession of the material and...

  1. 49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This...) and (d), a route may include the point where the carrier takes possession of the material and...

  2. Risky Business: An Analysis of Teacher Risk Preferences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowen, Daniel H.; Buck, Stuart; Deck, Cary; Mills, Jonathan N.; Shuls, James V.

    2015-01-01

    A range of proposals aim to reform teacher compensation, recruitment, and retention. Teachers have generally not embraced these policies. One potential explanation for their objections is that teachers are relatively risk averse. We examine this hypothesis using a risk-elicitation task common to experimental economics. By comparing preferences of…

  3. Analysis of dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Su, Boni; Zhao, Jinlong

    2015-07-01

    Knowing the dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation and having an efficient evacuation plan play a very important role in the serious disasters such as earthquake, tsunami and hurricane. In this paper, the dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation in a densely populated area of Beijing was studied with consideration of different influencing factors. Firstly, the eight influencing factors including road width, node degree, safety betweenness, road resistor coefficient, building threat, pedestrian counterflow, illegal vehicle parking and traffic flow were considered to assess the road risk for pedestrian evacuation. Secondly, based on complex network theory, electric circuit theory and real situation of the roads, the comprehensive assessment function for road risk was developed quantitatively based on the eight influencing factors. Thirdly, we analyzed road risk for pedestrian evacuation considering different situations: current condition, regular condition, and optimal condition; the risk distribution maps were drawn to directly show the risk level. Through assessments, the roads with high risk for pedestrian evacuation were found, and an optimized evacuation plan was obtained and analyzed. This mathematical model can guide the emergency evacuation in real time. The process and the results are essential for improving the efficiency of evacuations which should considerably reduce the possibility of injuries, deaths and other losses in the disaster.

  4. Analysis of Risk Management in Adapted Physical Education Textbooks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Kelle L.; Donovan, Jacqueline B.; Berg, Dominck A.

    2016-01-01

    Physical education teacher education (PETE) programs vary on how the topics of safe teaching and risk management are addressed. Common practices to cover such issues include requiring textbooks, lesson planning, peer teaching, videotaping, reflecting, and reading case law analyses. We used a mixed methods design to examine how risk management is…

  5. The Importance of At-Risk Funding. Policy Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Emily; Griffith, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, states and districts have moved toward making education more equitable. A key component of equity in education is providing additional funds for economically disadvantaged students, commonly referred to as "at-risk students." At-risk students are most often defined as students who qualify for free or reduced priced…

  6. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    SciTech Connect

    Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

    2003-10-01

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

  7. Risk.

    PubMed

    Cole, Stephen R; Hudgens, Michael G; Brookhart, M Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-02-15

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  8. Comparative Risk Analysis for Metropolitan Solid Waste Management Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Ni-Bin; Wang, S. F.

    1996-01-01

    Conventional solid waste management planning usually focuses on economic optimization, in which the related environmental impacts or risks are rarely considered. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the methodology of how optimization concepts and techniques can be applied to structure and solve risk management problems such that the impacts of air pollution, leachate, traffic congestion, and noise increments can be regulated in the iong-term planning of metropolitan solid waste management systems. Management alternatives are sequentially evaluated by adding several environmental risk control constraints stepwise in an attempt to improve the management strategies and reduce the risk impacts in the long run. Statistics associated with those risk control mechanisms are presented as well. Siting, routing, and financial decision making in such solid waste management systems can also be achieved with respect to various resource limitations and disposal requirements.

  9. Comparative risk analysis of technological hazards (a review).

    PubMed Central

    Kates, R W; Kasperson, J X

    1983-01-01

    Hazards are threats to people and what they value and risks are measures of hazards. Comparative analyses of the risks and hazards of technology can be dated to Starr's 1969 paper [Starr, C. (1969) Science 165, 1232-1238] but are rooted in recent trends in the evolution of technology, the identification of hazard, the perception of risk, and the activities of society. These trends have spawned an interdisciplinary quasi profession with new terminology, methodology, and literature. A review of 54 English-language monographs and book-length collections, published between 1970 and 1983, identified seven recurring themes: (i) overviews of the field of risk assessment, (ii) efforts to estimate and quantify risk, (iii) discussions of risk acceptability, (iv) perception, (v) analyses of regulation, (vi) case studies of specific technological hazards, and (vii) agenda for research. Within this field, science occupies a unique niche, for many technological hazards transcend the realm of ordinary experience and require expert study. Scientists can make unique contributions to each area of hazard management but their primary contribution is the practice of basic science. Beyond that, science needs to further risk assessment by understanding the more subtle processes of hazard creation and by establishing conventions for estimating risk and for presenting and handling uncertainty. Scientists can enlighten the discussion of tolerable risk by setting risks into comparative contexts, by studying the process of evaluation, and by participating as knowledgeable individuals, but they cannot decide the issue. Science can inform the hazard management process by broadening the range of alternative control actions and modes of implementation and by devising methods to evaluate their effectiveness. PMID:6580625

  10. In silico analysis of nanomaterials hazard and risk.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Yoram; Rallo, Robert; Liu, Rong; Liu, Haoyang Haven

    2013-03-19

    false positive relative to false negative predictions and the reliability of toxicity data. To establish the environmental impact of ENMs identified as toxic, researchers will need to estimate the potential level of environmental exposure concentration of ENMs in the various media such as air, water, soil, and vegetation. When environmental monitoring data are not available, models of ENMs fate and transport (at various levels of complexity) serve as alternative approaches for estimating exposure concentrations. Risk management decisions regarding the manufacturing, use, and environmental regulations of ENMs would clearly benefit from both the assessment of potential ENMs exposure concentrations and suitable toxicity metrics. The decision process should consider the totality of available information: quantitative and qualitative data and the analysis of nanomaterials toxicity, and fate and transport behavior in the environment. Effective decision-making to address the potential impacts of nanomaterials will require considerations of the relevant environmental, ecological, technological, economic, and sociopolitical factors affecting the complete lifecycle of nanomaterials, while accounting for data and modeling uncertainties. Accordingly, researchers will need to establish standardized data management and analysis tools through nanoinformatics as a basis for the development of rational decision tools. PMID:23138971

  11. Terrorism risks and cost-benefit analysis of aviation security.

    PubMed

    Stewart, Mark G; Mueller, John

    2013-05-01

    We evaluate, for the U.S. case, the costs and benefits of three security measures designed to reduce the likelihood of a direct replication of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To do so, we assess risk reduction, losses, and security costs in the context of the full set of security layers. The three measures evaluated are installed physical secondary barriers (IPSB) to restrict access to the hardened cockpit door during door transitions, the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and the Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) Program. In the process, we examine an alternate policy measure: doubling the budget of the FFDO program to $44 million per year, installing IPSBs in all U.S. aircraft at a cost of $13.5 million per year, and reducing funding for FAMS by 75% to $300 million per year. A break-even cost-benefit analysis then finds the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack required for the benefit of each security measures to equal its cost. We find that the IPSB is costeffective if the annual attack probability of an otherwise successful attack exceeds 0.5% or one attack every 200 years. The FFDO program is costeffective if the annual attack probability exceeds 2%. On the other hand, more than two otherwise successful attacks per year are required for FAMS to be costeffective. A policy that includes IPSBs, an increased budget for FFDOs, and a reduced budget for FAMS may be a viable policy alternative, potentially saving hundreds of millions of dollars per year with consequences for security that are, at most, negligible. PMID:23035984

  12. Radiation-related cancer risks from CT colonography screening: a risk-benefit analysis

    PubMed Central

    de González, Amy Berrington; Kim, Kwang Pyo; Knudsen, Amy B.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Rutter, Carolyn M.; Smith-Bindman, Rebecca; Yee, Judy; Kuntz, Karen M.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Zauber, Ann G.; Berg, Christine D.

    2012-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this study was to estimate the ratio of cancers prevented to induced (benefit-risk ratio) for CT colonography screening every five years from age 50-80. Materials and methods Radiation-related cancer risk was estimated using risk projection models based on the National Research Council's BEIR VII committee's report and screening protocols from the American College of Radiology Imaging Network's National CT Colonography Trial. Uncertainty limits (UL) were estimated using Monte-Carlo simulation methods. Comparative modelling with three colorectal cancer microsimulation models was used to estimate the potential reduction in colorectal cancer cases and deaths. Results The estimated mean effective dose per CT colonography screen was 8mSv for females and 7mSv for males. The estimated number of radiation-related cancers from CT colonography screening every 5 years from age 50-80 was 150 cases/100,000 individuals (95%UL:80-280) for males and females. The estimated number of colorectal cancers prevented by CT colonography every 5 years from age 50-80 ranged across the three microsimulation models from 3580 to 5190/100,000, yielding a benefit-risk ratio that varied from 24:1(95%UL=13:1-45:1) to 35:1(95%UL=19:1-65:1). The benefit-risk ratio for cancer deaths was even higher than the ratio for cancer cases. Inclusion of radiation-related cancer risks from CT scans following-up extracolonic findings did not materially alter the results. Conclusions Concerns have been raised about recommending CT colonography as a routine screening tool because of the potential harms, including the radiation risks. Based on these models the benefits from CT colonography screening every five years from age 50-80 clearly outweigh the radiation risks. PMID:21427330

  13. Risk analysis and safety policy developments in the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Bottelberghs, P H

    2000-01-01

    In the Netherlands, external safety policy has been developed and implemented since the early eighties on the basis of a risk-based approach involving quantitative criteria for the tolerability of risk. Good experiences have been gained with the risk policy that applies to some 4000 establishments in the Netherlands where hazardous substances are present. On the basis of these experiences, legislation is now being prepared to give the risk tolerability criteria a full legal basis. This is aimed, in particular, to balance between risk control measures at the source through the licensing system, and spatial planning instruments to protect, e.g. residential areas against major hazards. The revision of the Seveso directive (96/82/EC) leads to the implementation of an integrated form of safety reporting, evaluation and inspection. Practical tools were developed for this implementation, e.g. for facilitating the selection of establishments and for assessing risks from major hazard establishments to surface water. In the past few years, the application of risk-based safety policy has been extended to other fields than establishments, e.g. for transport of hazardous chemicals and external safety of airports. PMID:10677654

  14. The impact of communicating genetic risks of disease on risk-reducing health behaviour: systematic review with meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hollands, Gareth J; French, David P; Griffin, Simon J; Prevost, A Toby; Sutton, Stephen; King, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the impact of communicating DNA based disease risk estimates on risk-reducing health behaviours and motivation to engage in such behaviours. Design Systematic review with meta-analysis, using Cochrane methods. Data sources Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials up to 25 February 2015. Backward and forward citation searches were also conducted. Study selection Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials involving adults in which one group received personalised DNA based estimates of disease risk for conditions where risk could be reduced by behaviour change. Eligible studies included a measure of risk-reducing behaviour. Results We examined 10 515 abstracts and included 18 studies that reported on seven behavioural outcomes, including smoking cessation (six studies; n=2663), diet (seven studies; n=1784), and physical activity (six studies; n=1704). Meta-analysis revealed no significant effects of communicating DNA based risk estimates on smoking cessation (odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.35, P=0.67), diet (standardised mean difference 0.12, 95% confidence interval −0.00 to 0.24, P=0.05), or physical activity (standardised mean difference −0.03, 95% confidence interval −0.13 to 0.08, P=0.62). There were also no effects on any other behaviours (alcohol use, medication use, sun protection behaviours, and attendance at screening or behavioural support programmes) or on motivation to change behaviour, and no adverse effects, such as depression and anxiety. Subgroup analyses provided no clear evidence that communication of a risk-conferring genotype affected behaviour more than communication of the absence of such a genotype. However, studies were predominantly at high or unclear risk of bias, and evidence was typically of low quality. Conclusions Expectations that communicating DNA based risk estimates changes behaviour is not supported by existing evidence

  15. Risk analysis of the thermal sterilization process. Analysis of factors affecting the thermal resistance of microorganisms.

    PubMed

    Akterian, S G; Fernandez, P S; Hendrickx, M E; Tobback, P P; Periago, P M; Martinez, A

    1999-03-01

    A risk analysis was applied to experimental heat resistance data. This analysis is an approach for processing experimental thermobacteriological data in order to study the variability of D and z values of target microorganisms depending on the deviations range of environmental factors, to determine the critical factors and to specify their critical tolerance. This analysis is based on sets of sensitivity functions applied to a specific case of experimental data related to the thermoresistance of Clostridium sporogenes and Bacillus stearothermophilus spores. The effect of the following factors was analyzed: the type of target microorganism; nature of the heating substrate; pH, temperature; type of acid employed and NaCl concentration. The type of target microorganism to be inactivated, the nature of the substrate (reference or real food) and the heating temperature were identified as critical factors, determining about 90% of the alteration of the microbiological risk. The effect of the type of acid used for the acidification of products and the concentration of NaCl can be assumed to be negligible factors for the purposes of engineering calculations. The critical non-uniformity in temperature during thermobacteriological studies was set as 0.5% and the critical tolerances of pH value and NaCl concentration were 5%. These results are related to a specific case study, for that reason their direct generalization is not correct. PMID:10357273

  16. The Measurement and Analysis Risk Factors Dependence Correlation in Software Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jianjie, Ding; Hong, Hou; Kegang, Hao; Xiaoqun, Guo

    The complexity of software process leads to that there are all kinds of fuzzy correlations among different process management risk factors, such as dependence correlation among software risk factors. It’s difficult to analyze risk data directly by mathematic tools because that risk data is uncertain and rough. Based on the rough set theory and the data in risk management library, the risk factors dependence correlation analysis system(RFDCAS) is established, and the dependence coefficient and its calculate formula on the base of equivalence class is suggested. The RFDCAS unveils the dependence correlation among risk factors contribute to risk management, and can help discover the problems in the software process improvement management.

  17. FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF PESTICIDE CONCENTRATIONS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT (FRANCO MODEL)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes a method for statistically characterizing the occurrence and duration of pesticide concentrations in surface waters receiving runoff from agricultural lands. The characterization bridges the gap between simulated instream pesticide modeling and the risk asse...

  18. THE ROLE OF EXPOSURE ANALYSIS IN HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation will cover the basic methodologies used for assessing human exposures to environmental pollutants, and some of the scientific challenges involved in conducting exposure and risk assessments in support of regulatory evaluations.

  19. Risk analysis for truck transportation of high consequence cargo.

    SciTech Connect

    Waters, Robert David

    2010-09-01

    The fixed facilities control everything they can to drive down risk. They control the environment, work processes, work pace and workers. The transportation sector drive the State and US highways with high kinetic energy and less-controllable risks such as: (1) other drivers (beginners, impaired, distracted, etc.); (2) other vehicles (tankers, hazmat, super-heavies); (3) road environments (bridges/tunnels/abutments/construction); and (4) degraded weather.

  20. Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.; Dyer, G.; Johnson, N.; McSwain, J. T.

    2011-02-01

    A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell into two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the

  1. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  2. Adversaries or Allies?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Armstrong, Roger

    1991-01-01

    Describes a role-playing simulation of a public meeting where community members are concerned about toxic material dumping. Use of the simulation in postgraduate management courses to emphasize the importance of trust between people and between groups in work situations is discussed. (four references) (LRW)

  3. Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: An assessment of the risk to Douglas commercial transport aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schjelderup, H. C.; Cook, C. Q.; Snyder, E.; Henning, B.; Hosford, J.; Gilles, D. L.; Swanstrom, C. W.

    1980-01-01

    The potential hazard to electrical and electronic devices should there be a release of free carbon fibers due to an aircraft crash and fire was assessed. Exposure and equipment sensitivity data were compiled for a risk analysis. Results are presented in the following areas: DC-9/DC-10 electrical/electronic component characterization; DC-9 and DC-10 fiber transfer functions; potential for transport aircraft equipment exposure to carbon fibers; and equipment vulnerability assessment. Results reflect only a negligible increase in risk for the DC-9 and DC-10 fleets either now or projected to 1993.

  4. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Ramón Porta-Sancho, Juan

    2016-07-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

  5. Risk analysis methods and techniques for veterinary biologicals used in Australia.

    PubMed

    Owusu, J

    1995-12-01

    Advances in modern science and technology and the globalisation of the veterinary manufacturing industry, coupled with the relaxation of trade restrictions by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade treaty on sanitary and phytosanitary measures, call for an international approach to standards of acceptable risk and risk analysis methodology. In Australia, different elements of risk analysis are undertaken by different agencies. The agencies employ screening risk assessment, which uses simple worst-case scenarios and conservative data to set priorities and identify issues of limited risk. The approach is multi-factorial, assessing risk to public health, animals and the environment. The major components of the analysis process are risk assessment, risk management, and procedures for communicating and monitoring risk. The author advocates the possible use of quantitative risk assessment, based on acceptable international standards, in making international trade decisions. In the absence of acceptable international standards, it is proposed that countries adopt mutual recognition of comparable standards and specifications employed by national agencies. PMID:8639948

  6. Systematic review and meta-analysis on vitamin D receptor polymorphisms and cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Xu, Yeqiong; He, Bangshun; Pan, Yuqin; Deng, Qiwen; Sun, Huiling; Li, Rui; Gao, Tianyi; Song, Guoqi; Wang, Shukui

    2014-05-01

    The vitamin D receptor (VDR) can influence cancer susceptibility through binding to vitamin D. However, the previous studies were contradictory. Therefore this meta-analysis was conducted to clarify the association between VDR polymorphisms (BsmI, TaqI, FokI, and ApaI) and cancer risk. One hundred twenty-six studies were enrolled through PubMed. For VDR BsmI polymorphism, significantly increased cancer risks were observed in the overall analysis. In the further stratified analysis, increased risks were observed in colorectal and skin cancer, especially in Caucasian population. However, no significant associations were observed in other VDR polymorphisms in the overall analysis. In the further subgroup analysis, increased risks were found in oral, breast, and basal cell cancer while decreased risk was found in prostate cancer in t allele carriers of TaqI polymorphism. For VDR FokI polymorphism, increased risks were found in ovarian and skin cancer while decreased risk in glioma in f allele carriers. For VDR ApaI polymorphism, increased risk was observed in basal cell cancer, especially in Asian population in a allele carriers. In conclusion, these results indicated that b allele of BamI polymorphism was a risk factor for cancer susceptibility. Meanwhile, t allele of TaqI polymorphism was a risk factor for oral, breast, and basal cell cancer and a protective factor for prostate cancer. Moreover, f allele of FokI polymorphism was a risk factor for ovarian and skin cancer and a protective factor for glioma. Finally, a allele of ApaI polymorphism was a risk factor for basal cell cancer in Asian population. PMID:24408013

  7. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

  8. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas.

    PubMed

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

  9. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  10. Reduced cancer risk in vegetarians: an analysis of recent reports.

    PubMed

    Lanou, Amy Joy; Svenson, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    This report reviews current evidence regarding the relationship between vegetarian eating patterns and cancer risk. Although plant-based diets including vegetarian and vegan diets are generally considered to be cancer protective, very few studies have directly addressed this question. Most large prospective observational studies show that vegetarian diets are at least modestly cancer protective (10%-12% reduction in overall cancer risk) although results for specific cancers are less clear. No long-term randomized clinical trials have been conducted to address this relationship. However, a broad body of evidence links specific plant foods such as fruits and vegetables, plant constituents such as fiber, antioxidants and other phytochemicals, and achieving and maintaining a healthy weight to reduced risk of cancer diagnosis and recurrence. Also, research links the consumption of meat, especially red and processed meats, to increased risk of several types of cancer. Vegetarian and vegan diets increase beneficial plant foods and plant constituents, eliminate the intake of red and processed meat, and aid in achieving and maintaining a healthy weight. The direct and indirect evidence taken together suggests that vegetarian diets are a useful strategy for reducing risk of cancer. PMID:21407994

  11. Finding and fixing systems weaknesses: probabilistic methods and applications of engineering risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth

    2002-04-01

    Methods of engineering risk analysis are based on a functional analysis of systems and on the probabilities (generally Bayesian) of the events and random variables that affect their performances. These methods allow identification of a system's failure modes, computation of its probability of failure or performance deterioration per time unit or operation, and of the contribution of each component to the probabilities and consequences of failures. The model has been extended to include the human decisions and actions that affect components' performances, and the management factors that affect behaviors and can thus be root causes of system failures. By computing the risk with and without proposed measures, one can then set priorities among different risk management options under resource constraints. In this article, I present briefly the engineering risk analysis method, then several illustrations of risk computations that can be used to identify a system's weaknesses and the most cost-effective way to fix them. The first example concerns the heat shield of the space shuttle orbiter and shows the relative risk contribution of the tiles in different areas of the orbiter's surface. The second application is to patient risk in anesthesia and demonstrates how the engineering risk analysis method can be used in the medical domain to rank the benefits of risk mitigation measures, in that case, mostly organizational. The third application is a model of seismic risk analysis and mitigation, with application to the San Francisco Bay area for the assessment of the costs and benefits of different seismic provisions of building codes. In all three cases, some aspects of the results were not intuitively obvious. The probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) method allowed identifying system weaknesses and the most cost-effective way to fix them. PMID:12022679

  12. A Fuzzy Set Risk Analysis Technique for Water Supply under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogardi, I.

    2012-04-01

    The main purpose of the risk analysis techniques is to select/rank management actions for local waterworks/water authorities under climate change. Risk of water supply is influenced by the available water supply, water demand and consequences of water shortage. Due to the inherently uncertain climate change estimation, all these quantities influenced by climate change are also uncertain. Thus, the combination of water shortages and consequences may be accomplished in a risk analysis framework. Often, frequency based statistical information is unavailable so common probabilistic risk analysis may not be applicable. To this end, a non-probabilistic risk analysis is presented that is relatively simple, practical and applicable with available data/information. The method is based on simplified fuzzy set mathematics. Thus, supply, demand and consequences are represented as uncertain (fuzzy) numbers. Four main parts of the methodology include 1. formulation of alternative management actions, 2. definition of the structure of ranking criteria, 3. estimation of ranking criteria values for each management action, and 4. ranking of the management actions according to the ranking criteria. Management actions are evaluated according to several criteria. One group of criteria considers water supply risk reduction for the various users. Another group of criteria may be also necessary: one related to the realization of the actions. Both water quantity and quality risk are considered. The use of the risk analysis techniques is illustrated by a case example.

  13. Economic Risk Analysis of Experimental Cropping Systems Using the SMART Risk Tool

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Recently, a variant of stochastic dominance called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) has been developed and applied. Unlike traditional stochastic dominance approaches, SERF uses the concept of certainty equivalents (CEs) to rank a set of risk-efficient alternatives instead of ...

  14. Risk Factors for Gambling Problems: An Analysis by Gender.

    PubMed

    Hing, Nerilee; Russell, Alex; Tolchard, Barry; Nower, Lia

    2016-06-01

    Differences in problem gambling rates between males and females suggest that associated risk factors vary by gender. Previous combined analyses of male and female gambling may have obscured these distinctions. This study aimed to develop separate risk factor models for gambling problems for males and for females, and identify gender-based similarities and differences. It analysed data from the largest prevalence study in Victoria Australia (N = 15,000). Analyses determined factors differentiating non-problem from at-risk gamblers separately for women and men, then compared genders using interaction terms. Separate multivariate analyses determined significant results when controlling for all others. Variables included demographics, gambling behaviour, gambling motivations, money management, and mental and physical health. Significant predictors of at-risk status amongst female gamblers included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on private betting, electronic gaming machines (EGMs), scratch tickets or bingo, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. For males, risk factors included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, low education, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on EGMs, table games, races, sports or lotteries, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. High risk groups requiring appropriate interventions comprise young adults, especially males; middle-aged female EGM gamblers; non-English speaking populations; frequent EGM, table games, race and sports gamblers; and gamblers motivated by escape. PMID:25948418

  15. Relative risk analysis of the use of radiation-emitting medical devices: A preliminary application

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.

    1996-06-01

    This report describes the development of a risk analysis approach for evaluating the use of radiation-emitting medial devices. This effort was performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The assessment approach has bee applied to understand the risks in using the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis for developing regulations and quality assurance requirements in the use of nuclear medical devices. The risk approach identifies and assesses the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance for the medical system. The approach uses expert screening techniques and relative risk profiling to incorporate the type, quality, and quantity of data available and to present results in an easily understood form.

  16. Metabolic syndrome risk factors and dry eye syndrome: a Meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Ye-Lei; Cheng, Ya-Lan; Ren, Yu-Ping; Yu, Xiao-Ning; Shentu, Xing-Chao

    2016-01-01

    AIM To explore the relationship between metabolic risk factors and dry eye syndrome (DES). METHODS Retrieved studies on the association of metabolic syndrome risk factors (hypertension, hyperglycemia, obesity, and hyperlipidemia) and DES were collected from PubMed, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library in December 2015. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were pooled to evaluate the final relationship. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to diagnostic criteria of DES. RESULTS Nine cross-sectional studies and three case-control studies were included in this Meta-analysis. The pooled results showed that people with hypertension, hyperglycemia, and hyperlipidemia had a higher risk of suffering from DES (P<0.05), especially the typical DES symptoms. On the other hand, obesity did not increase the risk of DES. CONCLUSION The present Meta-analysis suggests that all metabolic risk factors except obesity were risk factors for DES. PMID:27500114

  17. Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, Lauri K.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Duncan, Matthew G.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

    2014-01-01

    Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.

  18. Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

    PubMed

    Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

    2012-01-01

    In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described. PMID:22317712

  19. A starting point for Risk Assessment: The Fault Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)

    SciTech Connect

    Fine, A.M.

    1994-06-01

    This paper describes and discusses a basic safety analysis technique which may be useful for the beginning process of Risk Assessment and Risk Management. The technique uses judgmental factors on the part of analysts rather than dependence upon numerical techniques associated with more detailed analysis. The basic technique is presented and coupled to risk charts which may vary depending upon the intent of the analysis and the output required for the particular situation. Some variations are included to show how the technique may be used for prioritization of competing resources for necessary work.

  20. Risk analysis of space transportation during the space station era

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1989-01-01

    This study addresses the operational risks of manned space transportation during the era of space station deployment along with alternative launch vehicle architectures to reduce the risks. Vehicle architectures considered included shuttle only, an additional unmanned launch vehicle, and a second manned/unmanned launch vehicle. Projections are made for the operational parameters and flight event probabilities. Using these projections and Space Station era mission models, the operability of alternative vehicle architectures are examined, and implications to future manned space program plans are summarized.

  1. Dairy consumption and lung cancer risk: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Yi; Li, Hui; Xu, Kaiwu; Li, Xin; Hu, Chunlin; Wei, Hongyan; Zeng, Xiaoyun; Jing, Xiaoli

    2016-01-01

    Background Lung cancer risk is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between dairy consumption and lung cancer risk. Methods The databases included EMBASE, Medline (PubMed), and Web of Science. The relationship between dairy consumption and lung cancer risk was analyzed by relative risk or odds ratio estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We identified eight prospective cohort studies, which amounted to 10,344 cases and 61,901 participants. Results For milk intake, relative risk was 0.95 (95% CI: 0.76–1.15); heterogeneity was 70.2% (P=0.003). For total dairy product intake, relative risk was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.89–1.03), heterogeneity was 68.4% (P=0.004). Conclusion There was no significant association between dairy consumption and lung cancer risk. PMID:26766916

  2. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  3. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    SciTech Connect

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare.

  4. A risk-informed approach to safety margins analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli

    2013-07-01

    The Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway is a systematic approach developed to characterize and quantify safety margins of nuclear power plant structures, systems and components. The model has been tested on the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Lab.

  5. Fruit flies risk analysis: Current situation and perspectives

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Trade in fresh agricultural commodities involves probability of entry and establishment of exotic organisms into the importing region or country. The term "risk" includes the product of likelihood that exotic organisms will enter and become established (survive and reproduce) in the importing regio...

  6. Small Area Analysis of Risk for Childhood Lead Poisoning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Mary Jean; Shenassa, Edmond; Tips, Nancy

    Although mean blood lead (BPb) levels in the United States continue to decrease, there is evidence that certain populations, particularly young children living in communities with a high proportion of older, poorly maintained housing, remain at high risk for lead exposure. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the prevalence…

  7. System, cost, and risk analysis for access to space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chase, James P.; Carter, Rebecca L.; Smith, Jeffrey L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper proposes the use of a new tool more quickly develop initial cost and risk estimates of alternative flight options for both single missions and the partnering of missions into a single space flight. this work is particularly useful for small missions that require low-cost opportunities for accessing space.

  8. Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yan, Yan

    2009-01-01

    The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

  9. Analysis of lung tumor risks in rats exposed to radon.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, E S; Cross, F T; Dagle, G E

    1996-03-01

    Using data on 3117 rats exposed by inhalation to radon, radon progeny and uranium ore dust, the hazard function (or age-specific risk) for lung tumor incidence was modeled as a function of exposure, exposure rate and other factors. The overall estimate of lifetime risk was 237 cases per 10(6) rats per WLM (237 per 10(6) WLM), reasonably comparable to estimates obtained from data for humans. The data below 1000 WLM (20-640 WLM) were consistent with linearity with positive excess risks at all levels; however, evidence of statistically significant excess risk was limited to exposures of 80 WLM or greater. Evidence for an inverse exposure-rate effect was limited primarily to cumulative exposures exceeding 1000 WLM (1280-10,240 WLM) and to comparison of results at 100 and 1000 WL. Even at these levels, the possibility that the effect might be explained by time since last exposure or by heterogeneity across experiments could not be entirely excluded. The inverse exposure-rate effect was strongest for epidermoid and adenosquamous tumors, and the only indication of such an effect at exposures below 1000 WLM was modest evidence (P=0.024) in analyses limited to these tumors. When all lung tumors, or all malignant lung tumors, were included, there was no evidence of such an effect below 1000 WLM. These data support the viewpoint that the inverse exposure-rate effect is primarily a high-dose phenomenon. PMID:8927704

  10. The impact of consumer phase models in microbial risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Nauta, Maarten; Christensen, Bjarke

    2011-02-01

    In quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), the consumer phase model (CPM) describes the part of the food chain between purchase of the food product at retail and exposure. Construction of a CPM is complicated by the large variation in consumer food handling practices and a limited availability of data. Therefore, several subjective (simplifying) assumptions have to be made when a CPM is constructed, but with a single CPM their impact on the QMRA results is unclear. We therefore compared the performance of eight published CPMs for Campylobacter in broiler meat in an example of a QMRA, where all the CPMs were analyzed using one single input distribution of concentrations at retail, and the same dose-response relationship. It was found that, between CPMs, there may be a considerable difference in the estimated probability of illness per serving. However, the estimated relative risk reductions are less different for scenarios modeling the implementation of control measures. For control measures affecting the Campylobacter prevalence, the relative risk is proportional irrespective of the CPM used. However, for control measures affecting the concentration the CPMs show some difference in the estimated relative risk. This difference is largest for scenarios where the aim is to remove the highly contaminated portion from human exposure. Given these results, we conclude that for many purposes it is not necessary to develop a new detailed CPM for each new QMRA. However, more observational data on consumer food handling practices and their impact on microbial transfer and survival are needed to generalize this conclusion. PMID:20738819

  11. Analysis of genetics and risk factors of Alzheimer's Disease.

    PubMed

    Panpalli Ates, M; Karaman, Y; Guntekin, S; Ergun, M A

    2016-06-14

    Alzheimer's Disease is the leading neurodegenerative cause of dementia. The pathogenesis is not clearly understood yet, is believed to be the complex interaction between genetic and environmental factors. Consequently vascular risk factors and Apolipoprotein E genotyping are increasingly gaining importance. This study aimed at assessing the relationships between Alzheimer's Disease and Apolipoprotein E phenotype and vascular risk factors. Patients diagnosed with "possible Alzheimer's Disease" in the Gazi University, Department of Neurology, were included in the study and age-matched volunteer patients who attended the polyclinic were included as a control group. In this study, the risk factors including low education level, smoking, hyperlipidemia, higher serum total cholesterol levels, and hyperhomocysteinemia were found to be statistically significantly more common in the Alzheimer's Disease group in comparison to the Control Group, while all Apolipoprotein E ε4/ε4 genotypes were found in the Alzheimer's Disease group. The presence of the Apolipoprotein E ε4 allele is believed to increase vascular risk factors as well as to affect Alzheimer's Disease directly. The biological indicators which are used in identifying the patients' genes will be probably used in the treatment plan of the patients in the future. PMID:27026590

  12. Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.

    PubMed

    Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R

    2005-11-15

    A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes. PMID:16323804

  13. Space-Time Analysis to Identify Areas at Risk of Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Poliany C. O.; Santos, Emerson S.; Ignotti, Eliane; Hacon, Sandra S.

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed at identifying areas that were at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in residents aged 45 years or older of the cities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande between 2009 and 2011. We conducted an ecological study of mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. Mortality rates were calculated for each census tract by the Local Empirical Bayes estimator. High- and low-risk clusters were identified by retrospective space-time scans for each year using the Poisson probability model. We defined the year and month as the temporal analysis unit and the census tracts as the spatial analysis units adjusted by age and sex. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the socioeconomic and environmental variables by risk classification. High-risk clusters showed higher income ratios than low-risk clusters, as did temperature range and atmospheric particulate matter. Low-risk clusters showed higher humidity than high-risk clusters. The Eastern region of Várzea Grande and the central region of Cuiabá were identified as areas at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in individuals aged 45 years or older. High mortality risk was associated with socioeconomic and environmental factors. More high-risk clusters were observed at the end of the dry season. PMID:26504836

  14. Application of the Maximum Entropy Method to Risk Analysis of Mergers and Acquisitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Jigang; Song, Wenyun

    The maximum entropy (ME) method can be used to analyze the risk of mergers and acquisitions when only pre-acquisition information is available. A practical example of the risk analysis of China listed firms’ mergers and acquisitions is provided to testify the feasibility and practicality of the method.

  15. Identifying At-Risk Students in General Chemistry via Cluster Analysis of Affective Characteristics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Julia Y. K.; Bauer, Christopher F.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify academically at-risk students in first-semester general chemistry using affective characteristics via cluster analysis. Through the clustering of six preselected affective variables, three distinct affective groups were identified: low (at-risk), medium, and high. Students in the low affective group…

  16. Introduction to Political Risk Analysis. Learning Packages in the Policy Sciences, PS-24.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coplin, William D.; O'Leary, Michael K.

    This package introduces college students to the kind of analysis that multinational corporations undertake to assess risks to their business operations due to political and economic conditions. Designed to be completed in 3 weeks, the four exercises enable students to (1) identify the major sources of political risk; (2) determine what social,…

  17. Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Coefficients for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides. An Uncertainty Analysis for Risk Coefficients Reported in Federal Guidance Report No. 13

    SciTech Connect

    Pawel, David; Leggett, Richard Wayne; Eckerman, Keith F; Nelson, Christopher

    2007-01-01

    Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.

  18. Grouping of Diverse Stressors for Cumulative Risk Analysis (CRA) by Media, Time and Toxicity

    EPA Science Inventory

    CRAs may address multiple chemical, physical, biological or psychosocial stressors. Approaches for grouping diverse stressors prior to risk analysis can simplify some complexities associated with CRAs. For CRAs involving chemical mixtures, this entails developing CRA exposure gr...

  19. Review of Research Trends and Methods in Nano Environmental, Health, and Safety Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Erbis, Serkan; Ok, Zeynep; Isaacs, Jacqueline A; Benneyan, James C; Kamarthi, Sagar

    2016-08-01

    Despite the many touted benefits of nanomaterials, concerns remain about their possible environmental, health, and safety (EHS) risks in terms of their toxicity, long-term accumulation effects, or dose-response relationships. The published studies on EHS risks of nanomaterials have increased significantly over the past decade and half, with most focused on nanotoxicology. Researchers are still learning about health consequences of nanomaterials and how to make environmentally responsible decisions regarding their production. This article characterizes the scientific literature on nano-EHS risk analysis to map the state-of-the-art developments in this field and chart guidance for the future directions. First, an analysis of keyword co-occurrence networks is investigated for nano-EHS literature published in the past decade to identify the intellectual turning points and research trends in nanorisk analysis studies. The exposure groups targeted in emerging nano-EHS studies are also assessed. System engineering methods for risk, safety, uncertainty, and system reliability analysis are reviewed, followed by detailed descriptions where applications of these methods are utilized to analyze nanomaterial EHS risks. Finally, the trends, methods, future directions, and opportunities of system engineering methods in nano-EHS research are discussed. The analysis of nano-EHS literature presented in this article provides important insights on risk assessment and risk management tools associated with nanotechnology, nanomanufacturing, and nano-enabled products. PMID:26882074

  20. Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

    PubMed

    von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

    2016-03-01

    Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform. PMID:25663430

  1. Risk factor profiles among intravenous drug using young adults: a latent class analysis (LCA) approach.

    PubMed

    James, Sigrid; McField, Edward S; Montgomery, Susanne B

    2013-03-01

    Using data from a cross-sectional study that examined health risk behaviors among urban intravenous drug-using (IDU) adolescents and young adults, this study investigated risk profiles among a high-risk sample (n=274). Risk profiles were empirically derived through latent class analysis based on indicators of engagement in health-risking behaviors, experience of abuse and violence as well as individual and family risk factors. The best fitting model was a 3-class model. Class 1 (n=95) captured participants with the lowest risk across all indicators. Compared to Class 1, Class 2 (n=128) and Class 3 (n=51) had elevated rates of engagement in health-risking behaviors as well as individual and family risk factors; however, Class 3 had the highest rate of engagement in sexual risk behavior, and backgrounds of substantial abuse and violence as well as familial psychopathology. Class 2 was the group most socioeconomically disadvantaged, with the highest percentage of participants coming from poor backgrounds, spending the longest time homeless and working the fewest months. Identifying subgroups of IDU has the potential to guide the development of more targeted and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this high-risk population. PMID:23254231

  2. Comparing risk in conventional and organic dairy farming in the Netherlands: an empirical analysis.

    PubMed

    Berentsen, P B M; Kovacs, K; van Asseldonk, M A P M

    2012-07-01

    This study was undertaken to contribute to the understanding of why most dairy farmers do not convert to organic farming. Therefore, the objective of this research was to assess and compare risks for conventional and organic farming in the Netherlands with respect to gross margin and the underlying price and production variables. To investigate the risk factors a farm accountancy database was used containing panel data from both conventional and organic representative Dutch dairy farms (2001-2007). Variables with regard to price and production risk were identified using a gross margin analysis scheme. Price risk variables were milk price and concentrate price. The main production risk variables were milk yield per cow, roughage yield per hectare, and veterinary costs per cow. To assess risk, an error component implicit detrending method was applied and the resulting detrended standard deviations were compared between conventional and organic farms. Results indicate that the risk included in the gross margin per cow is significantly higher in organic farming. This is caused by both higher price and production risks. Price risks are significantly higher in organic farming for both milk price and concentrate price. With regard to production risk, only milk yield per cow poses a significantly higher risk in organic farming. PMID:22720936

  3. Risk Factor Profiles among Intravenous Drug Using Young Adults: A Latent Class Analysis (LCA) Approach

    PubMed Central

    James, Sigrid; McField, Edward S.; Montgomery, Susanne B.

    2013-01-01

    Using data from a cross-sectional study that examined health risk behaviors among urban intravenous drug-using (IDU) adolescents and young adults, this study investigated risk profiles among a high-risk sample (n=274). Risk profiles were empirically derived through latent class analysis based on indicators of engagement in health-risking behaviors, experience of abuse and violence as well as individual and family risk factors. The best fitting model was a 3-class model. Class 1 (n=95) captured participants with the lowest risk across all indicators. Compared to Class 1, Class 2 (n=128) and Class 3 (n=51) had elevated rates of engagement in health-risking behaviors as well as individual and family risk factors; however, Class 3 had the highest rate of engagement in sexual risk behavior, and backgrounds of substantial abuse and violence as well as familial psychopathology. Class 2 was the group most socioeconomically disadvantaged, with the highest percentage of participants coming from poor backgrounds, spending the longest time homeless and working the fewest months. Identifying subgroups of IDU has the potential to guide the development of more targeted and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this high-risk population. PMID:23254231

  4. Risk Analysis Based Business Rule Enforcement for Intelligent Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasilecas, Olegas; Smaizys, Aidas; Brazinskas, Ramunas

    Intelligent information systems are acting by structured rules and do not deal with possible impact on the business environment or future consequences. That is the main reason why automated decisions based on such rules cannot take responsibility and requires involvement or approval of dedicated business people. This limits decision automation possibilities in information systems. However, business rules describe business policy and represent business logics. This can be used in intelligent information systems, together with risk assessment model to simulate real business environment and evaluate possible impact of automated decisions, to support intelligent decision automation. The chapter proposes risk and business rule model integration to provide full intelligent decision automation model used for business rule enforcement and implementation into intelligent software systems of information systems.

  5. Relapsing fever in pregnancy: analysis of high-risk factors.

    PubMed

    Melkert, P W

    1988-10-01

    The diagnosis of tick-borne relapsing fever was established in 27 pregnant patients by demonstration of Borrelia spirochaetes in a thick blood smear and the borrelia index was estimated to calculate the density of the spirochaetaemia. Clinical findings are described and compared with those reported from Rwanda. The results suggest that the density of the spirochaetaemia and the gestational age are the main high-risk factors. PMID:3191046

  6. Safety, tolerability and risk benefit analysis of tiotropium in COPD

    PubMed Central

    Oba, Yuji; Zaza, Tareq; Thameem, Danish M

    2008-01-01

    COPD is a chronic disease and, like many other chronic diseases, there is no treatment to reverse the severity of the disease except for lung transplant. To date, no inhaled medications have been shown to improve survival. Tiotropium bromide is a long-acting inhaled anticholinergic drug for the treatment of COPD that can improve lung function, reduce symptoms and exacerbations, and improve quality of life with once-daily dosing. It was initially approved and marketed in several countries in Europe in 2002 and then approved in the US in 2004. Tiotropium is generally well tolerated with dry mouth being the main adverse effect. Other adverse effects include constipation, tachycardia, blurred vision, urinary retention and increased intraocular pressure. Despite the recently raised concerns about an excess risk of cardiovascular adverse events with inhaled anticholinergic agents, the risk/benefit ratio of tiotropium appears still favorable given the favorable safety profile demonstrated in the UPLIFT study. However, caution should be advised in patients at high risk for cardiovascular disease given the paucity of data in such patients. PMID:19281075

  7. Generalized nonlinear models for rear-end crash risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Lao, Yunteng; Zhang, Guohui; Wang, Yinhai; Milton, John

    2014-01-01

    A generalized nonlinear model (GNM)-based approach for modeling highway rear-end crash risk is formulated using Washington State traffic safety data. Previous studies majorly focused on causal factor identification and crash risk modeling using Generalized linear Models (GLMs), such as Poisson regression, Logistic regression, etc. However, their basic assumption of a generalized linear relationship between the dependent variable (for example, crash rate) and independent variables (for example, contribute factors to crashes) established via a link function can be often violated in reality. Consequently, the GLM-based modeling results could provide biased findings and conclusions. In this research, a GNM-based approach is developed to utilize a nonlinear regression function to better elaborate non-monotonic relationships between the independent and dependent variables using the rear end accident data collected from 10 highway routes from 2002 through 2006. The results show for example that truck percentage and grade have a parabolic impact: they increase crash risks initially, but decrease them after the certain thresholds. Such non-monotonic relationships cannot be captured by regular GLMs which further demonstrate the flexibility of GNM-based approaches in the nonlinear relationship among data and providing more reasonable explanations. The superior GNM-based model interpretations help better understand the parabolic impacts of some specific contributing factors for selecting and evaluating rear-end crash safety improvement plans. PMID:24125803

  8. Prioritizing risk analysis quality control plans based on Sigma-metrics.

    PubMed

    Westgard, Sten

    2013-03-01

    Six Sigma provides data-driven techniques that can enhance and improve the EP23 risk management approach for formulating quality control (QC) Plans. Risk analysis has significant drawbacks in its ability to identify and appropriately prioritize hazards and failure modes for mitigation of risks. Six Sigma quality management is inherently risk oriented on the basis of the required tolerance limits that define defective products. Six Sigma QC tools provide a quantitative assessment of method performance and an objective selection/design of statistical QC procedures. Furthermore, the observed sigma performance of a method is useful for prioritizing the need for development of QC plans. PMID:23331728

  9. TNF -308 G/A Polymorphism and Risk of Acne Vulgaris: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jian-Kang; Wu, Wen-Juan; Qi, Jue; He, Li; Zhang, Ya-Ping

    2014-01-01

    Background The -308 G/A polymorphism in the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) gene has been implicated in the risk of acne vulgaris, but the results are inconclusive. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the overall association between the -308 G/A polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Methods We searched in Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science and CNKI for studies evaluating the association between the -308 G/A gene polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Data were extracted and statistical analysis was performed using STATA 12.0 software. Results A total of five publications involving 1553 subjects (728 acne vulgaris cases and 825 controls) were included in this meta-analysis. Combined analysis revealed a significant association between this polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk under recessive model (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.37–5.44, p = 0.004 for AA vs. AG + GG). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed that the acne vulgaris risk associated with the -308 G/A gene polymorphism was significantly elevated among Caucasians under recessive model (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.13–4.86, p = 0.023). Conclusion This meta-analysis suggests that the -308 G/A polymorphism in the TNF gene contributes to acne vulgaris risk, especially in Caucasian populations. Further studies among different ethnicity populations are needed to validate these findings. PMID:24498378

  10. The value of integrating information from multiple hazards for flood risk analysis and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Escuder-Bueno, I.; Altarejos-García, L.; Serrano-Lombillo, A.

    2014-02-01

    This article presents a methodology for estimating flood risk in urban areas integrating pluvial flooding, river flooding and failure of both small and large dams. The first part includes a review of basic concepts on flood risk analysis, evaluation and management. Flood risk analyses may be developed at local, regional and national level, however a general methodology to perform a quantitative flood risk analysis including different flood hazards is still required. The second part describes the proposed methodology, which presents an integrated approach - combining pluvial, river flooding and flooding from dam failure, as applied to a case study: an urban area located downstream of a dam under construction. The methodology enhances the approach developed within the SUFRI project ("Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management to cope with the residual risk", 2009-2011). This article also shows how outcomes from flood risk analysis provide better and more complete information to inform authorities, local entities and the stakeholders involved in decision-making with regard to flood risk management.

  11. Vasectomy and prostate cancer risk: a meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Shang, Yonggang; Han, Guangwei; Li, Jia; Zhao, Jiang; Cui, Dong; Liu, Chengcheng; Yi, Shanhong

    2015-01-01

    Some studies have suggested that vasectomy is associated with the increased risk of prostate cancer, however, this conclusion is not supported by all the published studies. In order to examine the relationship between vasectomy and prostate cancer risk, we conducted a meta-analysis of cohort studies to clarify this controversial association. PubMed and Medline were used to identify the cohort studies that reported the association of vasectomy with prostate cancer risk from 1980 to January 2015. Based on a random effects model, the RR and 95% CI were used to assess the combined risk. In total, 10 cohort studies involving more than 7027 cases and 429914 participants were included. There was no significant relationship between vasectomy and prostate cancer risk, the pooled RR (95%CI) was 1.11[0.98, 1.27] (P = 0.109). In subgroup-analysis, the relationship between vasectomy and prostate cancer risk was not significantly modified by the length of follow-up and population distribution except Americans. Omission of any single study had little effect on the pooled risk estimate. Little evidence of publication bias was found. In conclusion, our meta-analysis suggests that vasectomy is not associated with the increased risk of prostate cancer. More studies based on other populations including the Chinese are needed. PMID:25927401

  12. Analysis of health impact inputs to the US Department of Energy's risk information system

    SciTech Connect

    Droppo, J.G. Jr.; Buck, J.W.; Strenge, D.L.; Siegel, M.R.

    1990-08-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is in the process of completing a survey of environmental problems, referred to as the Environmental Survey, at their facilities across the country. The DOE Risk Information System (RIS) is being used to prioritize these environmental problems identified in the Environmental Survey's findings. This report contains a discussion of site-specific public health risk parameters and the rationale for their inclusion in the RIS. These parameters are based on computed potential impacts obtained with the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS). MEPAS is a computer-based methodology for evaluating the potential exposures resulting from multimedia environmental transport of hazardous materials. This report has three related objectives: document the role of MEPAS in the RIS framework, report the results of the analysis of alternative risk parameters that led to the current RIS risk parameters, and describe analysis of uncertainties in the risk-related parameters. 20 refs., 17 figs., 10 tabs.

  13. [Identification of schistosomiasis risk areas using spatial analysis in Lauro de Freitas, Bahia State, Brazil].

    PubMed

    Cardim, Luciana Lobato; Ferraudo, Antonio Sergio; Pacheco, Selma Turrioni Azevedo; Reis, Renato Barbosa; Silva, Marta Mariana Nascimento; Carneiro, Deborah Daniela M Trabuco; Bavia, Maria Emilia

    2011-05-01

    The spread of schistosomiasis mansoni defies efforts by Brazil's Unified National Health System, thus demonstrating the need to reassess endemic control programs in the country. The aim of this study was to demarcate geographic areas at risk of schistosomiasis in Lauro de Freitas, Bahia State, Brazil, and to establish the epidemiological and socioeconomic profile of the disease in this municipality (county). Kernel density estimator exploratory analysis was used for visual identification of areas at risk. Kulldorff & Nagarwalla's spatial analysis was used to obtain statistically significant clusters and to measure risk. These technologies identified four risk areas for schistosomiasis. Clusters identified within the risk areas were characterized by lower socioeconomic conditions. Multiple correspondence analyses showed a distinct profile for positive patients in the primary cluster. The techniques employed here represent an important methodological acquisition for tracking and controlling schistosomiasis in Lauro de Freitas. PMID:21655841

  14. Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.

  15. Stakeholder consultations and opportunities for integrating socio-behavioural factors into the pesticide risk analysis process.

    PubMed

    Calliera, Maura; Marchis, Alex; Sacchettini, Gabriele; Capri, Ettore

    2016-02-01

    The pesticide risk analysis process is well regulated in the EU, especially in relation to placing on the market authorisation procedures, but in order to avoid risks for human health and environment in the use phase, information on how these substances are employed and on socio-behavioural factors that can influence the exposure have to be taken into account. To better explore reasons about the gap between risk assessment and risk management, within the EU FP7 Health and Environmental Risks: Organisation, Integration and Cross-fertilisation of Scientific Knowledge (HEROIC) project, a stepwise stakeholder's consultation process was developed using a mixed approach in two different phases (survey and roundtable). We elicited stakeholder views regarding factors that could limit the pesticide risk assessment phase linked on how the knowledge is produced and the way the data are used in risk management and in risk communication, also taking into account qualitative factors such as responsibility, trust and behaviours, which could have impact on risk assessment policies. Activities deployed indicate that some changes and interaction are needed to better define the problems at the formulation stage, and the type of information risk assessor has to provide, to better inform risk manager in addressing different societal needs, to strengthen the credibility of the process of risk assessment and improve the effectiveness of policies. Integrations between disciplines may initially increase the complexity but in turn will provide a better and more useful estimation of the risk, reinforce transparency and drive a more efficient use of risk management resources. PMID:26498808

  16. RAMPART (TM): Risk Assessment Method-Property Analysis and Ranking Tool v.4.0

    SciTech Connect

    2007-09-30

    RAMPART{trademark}, Risk Assessment Method-property Analysis and Ranking Tool, is a new type of computer software package for the assessment of risk to buildings. RAMPART{trademark} has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA). RAMPART {trademark} has been designed and developed to be a risk-based decision support tool that requires no risk analysis expertise on the part of the user. The RAMPART{trademark} user interface elicits information from the user about the building. The RAMPART{trademark} expert system is a set of rules that embodies GSA corporate knowledge and SNL's risk assessment experience. The RAMPART{trademark} database contains both data entered by the user during a building analysis session and large sets of natural hazard and crime data. RAMPART{trademark} algorithms use these data to assess the risk associated with a given building in the face of certain hazards. Risks arising from five natural hazards (earthquake, hurricane, winter storm, tornado and flood); crime (inside and outside the building); fire and terrorism are calculated. These hazards may cause losses of various kinds. RAMPART{trademark} considers death, injury, loss of mission, loss of property, loss of contents, loss of building use, and first-responder loss. The results of each analysis are presented graphically on the screen and in a written report.

  17. RAMPART (TM): Risk Assessment Method-Property Analysis and Ranking Tool v.4.0

    2007-09-30

    RAMPART{trademark}, Risk Assessment Method-property Analysis and Ranking Tool, is a new type of computer software package for the assessment of risk to buildings. RAMPART{trademark} has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA). RAMPART {trademark} has been designed and developed to be a risk-based decision support tool that requires no risk analysis expertise on the part of the user. The RAMPART{trademark} user interface elicits information from the user aboutmore » the building. The RAMPART{trademark} expert system is a set of rules that embodies GSA corporate knowledge and SNL's risk assessment experience. The RAMPART{trademark} database contains both data entered by the user during a building analysis session and large sets of natural hazard and crime data. RAMPART{trademark} algorithms use these data to assess the risk associated with a given building in the face of certain hazards. Risks arising from five natural hazards (earthquake, hurricane, winter storm, tornado and flood); crime (inside and outside the building); fire and terrorism are calculated. These hazards may cause losses of various kinds. RAMPART{trademark} considers death, injury, loss of mission, loss of property, loss of contents, loss of building use, and first-responder loss. The results of each analysis are presented graphically on the screen and in a written report.« less

  18. In-group rationalizations of risk and indoor tanning: A textual analysis of an online forum.

    PubMed

    Carcioppolo, Nick; Chudnovskaya, Elena V; Martinez Gonzalez, Andrea; Stephan, Tyler

    2016-07-01

    Unlike other health behaviors, there does not appear to be a strong relationship between perceived skin cancer risk and reduction or cessation of indoor tanning bed use. This study seeks to address this inconsistency by determining how indoor tanning bed users rationalize skin cancer risk with their tanning behavior. Qualitative textual analysis of indoor tanning message board posts (N = 330) revealed varied perceptions of risk, including acknowledging the risk of indoor tanning; denying or downplaying risk, often citing perceived health benefits associated with tanning; blaming outside forces for cancer, such as lotion or genetics; and fatalistic beliefs about cancer. These results highlight the nuanced relationship between perceived skin cancer risk and indoor tanning bed use. PMID:25550403

  19. Space Weather Influence on Power Systems: Prediction, Risk Analysis, and Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yatsenko, Vitaliy

    2016-04-01

    This report concentrates on dynamic probabilistic risk analysis of optical elements for complex characterization of damages using physical model of solid state lasers and predictable level of ionizing radiation and space weather. The following main subjects will be covered by our report: (a) solid-state laser model; (b) mathematical models for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; and (c) software for modeling and prediction of ionizing radiation. A probabilistic risk assessment method for solid-state lasers is presented with consideration of some deterministic and stochastic factors. Probabilistic risk assessment is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in solid-state lasers for the purpose of cost-e®ectively improving their safety and performance. This method based on the Conditional Value-at-Risk measure (CVaR) and the expected loss exceeding Value-at-Risk (VaR). We propose to use a new dynamical-information approach for radiation damage risk assessment of laser elements by cosmic radiation. Our approach includes the following steps: laser modeling, modeling of ionizing radiation in°uences on laser elements, probabilistic risk assessment methods, and risk minimization. For computer simulation of damage processes at microscopic and macroscopic levels the following methods are used: () statistical; (b) dynamical; (c) optimization; (d) acceleration modeling, and (e) mathematical modeling of laser functioning. Mathematical models of space ionizing radiation in°uence on laser elements were developed for risk assessment in laser safety analysis. This is a so-called `black box' or `input-output' models, which seeks only to reproduce the behaviour of the system's output in response to changes in its inputs. The model inputs are radiation in°uences on laser systems and output parameters are dynamical characteristics of the solid laser. Algorithms and software for optimal structure and parameters of

  20. Influence of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum on risk avoidance in addiction: a mediation analysis*

    PubMed Central

    Yamamoto, Dorothy J.; Woo, Choong-Wan; Wager, Tor D.; Regner, Michael F.; Tanabe, Jody

    2015-01-01

    Background Alterations in frontal and striatal function are hypothesized to underlie risky decision-making in drug users, but how these regions interact to affect behavior is incompletely understood. We used mediation analysis to investigate how prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum together influence risk avoidance in abstinent drug users. Method Thirty-seven abstinent substance-dependent individuals (SDI) and 43 controls underwent fMRI while performing a decision-making task involving risk and reward. Analyses of a priori regions-of-interest tested whether activity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and ventral striatum (VST) explained group differences in risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis was conducted to identify brain regions influencing the negative VST-risk avoidance relationship. Results Right DLPFC (RDLPFC) positively mediated the group-risk avoidance relationship (p < 0.05); RDLPFC activity was higher in SDI and predicted higher risk avoidance across groups, controlling for SDI vs. controls. Conversely, VST activity negatively influenced risk avoidance (p < 0.05); it was higher in SDI, and predicted lower risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis revealed that, across group, RDLPFC and left temporal-parietal junction positively (p ≤ 0.001) while right thalamus and left middle frontal gyrus negatively (p < 0.005) mediated the VST activity-risk avoidance relationship. Conclusion RDLPFC activity mediated less risky decision-making while VST mediated more risky decision-making across drug users and controls. These results suggest a dual pathway underlying decision-making, which, if imbalanced, may adversely influence choices involving risk. Modeling contributions of multiple brain systems to behavior through mediation analysis could lead to a better understanding of mechanisms of behavior and suggest neuromodulatory treatments for addiction. PMID:25736619

  1. PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSALS - a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trinchero, P.; Delos, A.; Tartakovsky, D. M.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Bolster, D.; Dentz, M.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Molinero, J.

    2009-12-01

    The storage of contaminant material in superficial or sub-superficial repositories, such as tailing piles for mine waste or disposal sites for low and intermediate nuclear waste, poses a potential threat for the surrounding biosphere. The minimization of these risks can be achieved by supporting decision-makers with quantitative tools capable to incorporate all source of uncertainty within a rigorous probabilistic framework. A case study is presented where we assess the risks associated to the superficial storage of hazardous waste close to a populated area. The intrinsic complexity of the problem, involving many events with different spatial and time scales and many uncertainty parameters is overcome by using a formal PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) procedure that allows decomposing the system into a number of key events. Hence, the failure of the system is directly linked to the potential contamination of one of the three main receptors: the underlying karst aquifer, a superficial stream that flows near the storage piles and a protection area surrounding a number of wells used for water supply. The minimal cut sets leading to the failure of the system are obtained by defining a fault-tree that incorporates different events including the failure of the engineered system (e.g. cover of the piles) and the failure of the geological barrier (e.g. clay layer that separates the bottom of the pile from the karst formation). Finally the probability of failure is quantitatively assessed combining individual independent or conditional probabilities that are computed numerically or borrowed from reliability database.

  2. Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

  3. Risk Informed Design and Analysis Criteria for Nuclear Structures

    SciTech Connect

    Salmon, Michael W.

    2015-06-17

    Target performance can be achieved by defining design basis ground motion from results of a probabilistic seismic hazards assessment, and introducing known levels of conservatism in the design above the DBE. ASCE 4, 43, DOE-STD-1020 defined the DBE at 4x10-4 and introduce only slight levels of conservatism in response. ASCE 4, 43, DOE-STD-1020 assume code capacities shoot for about 98% NEP. There is a need to have a uniform target (98% NEP) for code developers (ACI, AISC, etc.) to aim for. In considering strengthening options, one must also consider cost/risk reduction achieved.

  4. Risk analysis for dry snow slab avalanche release by skier triggering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McClung, David

    2013-04-01

    Risk analysis is of primary importance for skier triggering of avalanches since human triggering is responsible for about 90% of deaths from slab avalanches in Europe and North America. Two key measureable quantities about dry slab avalanche release prior to initiation are the depth to the weak layer and the slope angle. Both are important in risk analysis. As the slope angle increases, the probability of avalanche release increases dramatically. As the slab depth increases, the consequences increase if an avalanche releases. Among the simplest risk definitions is (Vick, 2002): Risk = (Probability of failure) x (Consequences of failure). Here, these two components of risk are the probability or chance of avalanche release and the consequences given avalanche release. In this paper, for the first time, skier triggered avalanches were analyzed from probability theory and its relation to risk for both the D and . The data consisted of two quantities : (,D) taken from avalanche fracture line profiles after an avalanche has taken place. Two data sets from accidentally skier triggered avalanches were considered: (1) 718 for and (2) a set of 1242 values of D which represent average values along the fracture line. The values of D were both estimated (about 2/3) and measured (about 1/3) by ski guides from Canadian Mountain Holidays CMH). I also analyzed 1231 accidentally skier triggered avalanches reported by CMH ski guides for avalanche size (representing destructive potential) on the Canadian scale. The size analysis provided a second analysis of consequences to verify that using D. The results showed that there is an intermediate range of both D and with highest risk. ForD, the risk (product of consequences and probability of occurrence) is highest for D in the approximate range 0.6 m - 1.0 m. The consequences are low for lower values of D and the chance of release is low for higher values of D. Thus, the highest product is in the intermediate range. For slope angles

  5. Japanese Encephalitis Risk and Contextual Risk Factors in Southwest China: A Bayesian Hierarchical Spatial and Spatiotemporal Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Xing; Cao, Mingqin; Feng, Hai-Huan; Fan, Heng; Chen, Fei; Feng, Zijian; Li, Xiaosong; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

    2014-01-01

    It is valuable to study the spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and its association with the contextual risk factors in southwest China, which is the most endemic area in China. Using data from 2004 to 2009, we applied GISmapping and spatial autocorrelation analysis to analyze reported incidence data of JE in 438 counties in southwest China, finding that JE cases were not randomly distributed, and a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model identified the east part of southwest China as a high risk area. Meanwhile, the Bayesian hierarchical spatial model in 2006 demonstrated a statistically significant association between JE and the agricultural and climatic variables, including the proportion of rural population, the pig-to-human ratio, the monthly precipitation and the monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures. Particular emphasis was placed on the time-lagged effect for climatic factors. The regression method and the Spearman correlation analysis both identified a two-month lag for the precipitation, while the regression method found a one-month lag for temperature. The results show that the high risk area in the east part of southwest China may be connected to the agricultural and climatic factors. The routine surveillance and the allocation of health resources should be given more attention in this area. Moreover, the meteorological variables might be considered as possible predictors of JE in southwest China. PMID:24739769

  6. Anticipating risk for human subjects participating in clinical research: application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis.

    PubMed

    Cody, Robert J

    2006-03-01

    Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a method applied in various industries to anticipate and mitigate risk. This methodology can be more systematically applied to the protection of human subjects in research. The purpose of FMEA is simple: prevent problems before they occur. By applying FMEA process analysis to the elements of a specific research protocol, the failure severity, occurrence, and detection rates can be estimated for calculation of a "risk priority number" (RPN). Methods can then be identified to reduce the RPN to levels where the risk/benefit ratio favors human subject benefit, to a greater magnitude than existed in the pre-analysis risk profile. At the very least, the approach provides a checklist of issues that can be individualized for specific research protocols or human subject populations. PMID:16537191

  7. Report on the U.S. DOE Geothermal Technologies Program's 2009 Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    NREL conducted an annual program risk analysis on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program (GTP). NREL implemented a probabilistic risk analysis of GTP-sponsored research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) work, primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). The analysis examined estimates of improvement potential derived from program RD&D work for two types of technology performance metric (TPM): EGS-enabling technologies potential and EGS cost improvement potential. Four risk teams (exploration, wells/pumps/tools, reservoir engineering, and power conversion) comprised of industry experts, DOE laboratory researchers, academic researchers, and laboratory subcontractors estimated the RD&D impacts and TPM-improvement probability distributions. The assessment employed a risk analysis spreadsheet add-in that uses Monte Carlo simulation to drive the Geothermal Electric Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM). The GETEM-based risk analysis used baseline data from the experts' discussion of multiple reports and data sources. Risk results are expressed in terms of each metric's units and/or the program's top-level metric: levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Results--both qualitative comments and quantitative improvement potential--are thorough and cohesive in three of the four expert groups. This conference paper summarizes the industry's current thinking on various metrics and potential for research improvement in geothermal technologies.

  8. Nonparametric Analysis of Bivariate Gap Time with Competing Risks

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Chiung-Yu; Wang, Chenguang; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Summary This article considers nonparametric methods for studying recurrent disease and death with competing risks. We first point out that comparisons based on the well-known cumulative incidence function can be confounded by different prevalence rates of the competing events, and that comparisons of the conditional distribution of the survival time given the failure event type are more relevant for investigating the prognosis of different patterns of recurrence disease. We then propose nonparametric estimators for the conditional cumulative incidence function as well as the conditional bivariate cumulative incidence function for the bivariate gap times, that is, the time to disease recurrence and the residual lifetime after recurrence. To quantify the association between the two gap times in the competing risks setting, a modified Kendall’s tau statistic is proposed. The proposed estimators for the conditional bivariate cumulative incidence distribution and the association measure account for the induced dependent censoring for the second gap time. Uniform consistency and weak convergence of the proposed estimators are established. Hypothesis testing procedures for two-sample comparisons are discussed. Numerical simulation studies with practical sample sizes are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed nonparametric estimators and tests. An application to data from a pancreatic cancer study is presented to illustrate the methods developed in this article. PMID:26990686

  9. Risk Analysis of On-Orbit Spacecraft Refueling Concepts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cirillo, William M.; Stromgren, Chel; Cates, Grant R.

    2010-01-01

    On-orbit refueling of spacecraft has been proposed as an alternative to the exclusive use of Heavy-lift Launch Vehicles to enable human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). In these scenarios, beyond LEO spacecraft are launched dry (without propellant) or partially dry into orbit, using smaller or fewer element launch vehicles. Propellant is then launched into LEO on separate launch vehicles and transferred to the spacecraft. Refueling concepts are potentially attractive because they reduce the maximum individual payload that must be placed in Earth orbit. However, these types of approaches add significant complexity to mission operations and introduce more uncertainty and opportunities for failure to the mission. In order to evaluate these complex scenarios, the authors developed a Monte Carlo based discrete-event model that simulates the operational risks involved with such strategies, including launch processing delays, transportation system failures, and onorbit element lifetimes. This paper describes the methodology used to simulate the mission risks for refueling concepts, the strategies that were evaluated, and the results of the investigation. The results of the investigation show that scenarios that employ refueling concepts will likely have to include long launch and assembly timelines, as well as the use of spare tanker launch vehicles, in order to achieve high levels of mission success through Trans Lunar Injection.

  10. Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ager, A.; Finney, M.

    2009-04-01

    Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and intensity maps over large areas (10,000 - 2,000,000 ha). The MTT algorithm is parallelized for multi-threaded processing and is imbedded in a number of research and applied fire modeling applications. High performance computers (e.g., 32-way 64 bit SMP) are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the 32 bit desktop FlamMap3 program (www.fire.org). Extensive testing has shown that this algorithm can replicate large fire boundaries in the heterogeneous landscapes that typify much of the wildlands in the western U.S. In this paper, we describe the application of the MTT algorithm to understand spatial patterns of burn probability (BP), and to analyze wildfire risk to key human and ecological values. The work is focused on a federally-managed 2,000,000 ha landscape in the central interior region of Oregon State, USA. The fire-prone study area encompasses a wide array of topography and fuel types and a number of highly valued resources that are susceptible to fire. We quantitatively defined risk as the product of the probability of a fire and the resulting consequence. Burn probabilities at specific intensity classes were estimated for each 100 x 100 m pixel by simulating 100,000 wildfires under burn conditions that replicated recent severe wildfire events that occurred under conditions where fire suppression was generally ineffective (97th percentile, August weather). We repeated the simulation under milder weather (70th percentile, August weather) to replicate a "wildland fire use scenario" where suppression is minimized to

  11. Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. PMID:21608109

  12. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: economics and marketing-finance.

    PubMed

    Kalogeras, N; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Pennings, J M E; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Holm, F; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    All market participants (e.g., investors, producers, consumers) accept a certain level of risk as necessary to achieve certain benefits. There are many types of risk including price, production, financial, institutional, and individual human risks. All these risks should be effectively managed in order to derive the utmost of benefits and avoid disruption and/or catastrophic economic consequences for the food industry. The identification, analysis, determination, and understanding of the benefit-risk trade-offs of market participants in the food markets may help policy makers, financial analysts and marketers to make well-informed and effective corporate investment strategies in order to deal with highly uncertain and risky situations. In this paper, we discuss the role that benefits and risks play in the formation of the decision-making process of market-participants, who are engaged in the upstream and downstream stages of the food supply chain. In addition, we review the most common approaches (expected utility model and psychometrics) for measuring benefit-risk trade-offs in the economics and marketing-finance literature, and different factors that may affect the economic behaviour in the light of benefit-risk analyses. Building on the findings of our review, we introduce a conceptual framework to study the benefit-risk behaviour of market participants. Specifically, we suggest the decoupling of benefits and risks into the separate components of utilitarian benefits, hedonic benefits, and risk attitude and risk perception, respectively. Predicting and explaining how market participants in the food industry form their overall attitude in light of benefit-risk trade-offs may be critical for policy-makers and managers who need to understand the drivers of the economic behaviour of market participants with respect to production, marketing and consumption of food products. PMID:21871522

  13. At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

    PubMed Central

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Borgwardt, Stefan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana; Woods, Scott W; McGlashan, Thomas H; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R; McGuire, Philip

    2015-01-01

    An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR−). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR− subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan’s nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR−: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan’s nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide. PMID:26407788

  14. Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

    2014-10-01

    Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

  15. Identification and Prioritization of Analysis Cases for Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Risk Screening

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Richard M.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Van Cleve, Frances B.

    2010-06-16

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of marine and hydrokinetic energy generation projects. The development process consists of two main phases of analysis. In the first phase, preliminary risk analyses will take the form of screening studies in which key environmental impacts and the uncertainties that create risk are identified, leading to a better-focused characterization of the relevant environmental effects. Existence of critical data gaps will suggest areas in which specific modeling and/or data collection activities should take place. In the second phase, more detailed quantitative risk analyses will be conducted, with residual uncertainties providing the basis for recommending risk mitigation and monitoring activities. We also describe the process used for selecting three cases for fiscal year 2010 risk screening analysis using the ERES. A case is defined as a specific technology deployed in a particular location involving certain environmental receptors specific to that location. The three cases selected satisfy a number of desirable criteria: 1) they correspond to real projects whose deployment is likely to take place in the foreseeable future; 2) the technology developers are willing to share technology and project-related data; 3) the projects represent a diversity of technology-site-receptor characteristics; 4) the projects are of national interest, and 5) environmental effects data may be available for the projects.

  16. Transcatheter versus surgical aortic valve replacement in intermediate risk patients: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Misenheimer, Jacob A.; Jones, Wesley; Bahekar, Amol; Caughey, Melissa; Ramm, Cassandra J.; Caranasos, Thomas G.; Yeung, Michael; Vavalle, John P.

    2016-01-01

    Background Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has been approved in patients with high or prohibited surgical risk for surgery for treatment of severe symptomatic aortic stenosis. Prospective studies examining the benefits of TAVR in intermediate risk patients are ongoing. Other smaller studies including lower risk patients have been conducted, but further meta-analysis of these studies is required to draw more broad comparisons. Methods A Medline search was conducted using standard methodology to search for clinical trials and observational studies including intermediate risk patients. We limited our meta-analysis to studies matching patient populations by propensity scores or randomization and examined clinical outcomes between TAVR and surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). Results Analysis of the TAVR and SAVR cohorts revealed no significant differences in the outcomes of 30-day [OR (95% CI): 0.85 (0.57, 1.26)] or 1-year mortality [OR (95% CI): 0.96 (0.75, 1.23)]. A trend towards benefit with TAVR was noted in terms of neurological events and myocardial infarction (MI) without statistical significance. A statistically significant decrease in risk of post-procedural acute renal failure in the TAVR group [OR (95% CI): 0.52 (0.27, 0.99)] was observed, but so was a significantly higher rate of pacemaker implantations for the TAVR group [OR (95% CI): 6.51 (3.23, 13.12)]. Conclusions We conclude that in intermediate risk patients undergoing aortic valve replacement, the risk of mortality, neurological outcomes, and MI do not appear to be significantly different between TAVR and SAVR. However, there appears to be a significant reduction in risk of acute renal failure at the expense of an increased risk of requiring a permanent pacemaker in low and intermediate risk patients undergoing TAVR compared to SAVR. PMID:27280087

  17. Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.

    PubMed

    Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu

    2016-01-01

    Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value. PMID:27386264

  18. Accidental Water Pollution Risk Analysis of Mine Tailings Ponds in Guanting Reservoir Watershed, Zhangjiakou City, China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Renzhi; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Zhijiao; Borthwick, Alistair; Zhang, Ke

    2015-12-01

    Over the past half century, a surprising number of major pollution incidents occurred due to tailings dam failures. Most previous studies of such incidents comprised forensic analyses of environmental impacts after a tailings dam failure, with few considering the combined pollution risk before incidents occur at a watershed-scale. We therefore propose Watershed-scale Tailings-pond Pollution Risk Analysis (WTPRA), designed for multiple mine tailings ponds, stemming from previous watershed-scale accidental pollution risk assessments. Transferred and combined risk is embedded using risk rankings of multiple routes of the "source-pathway-target" in the WTPRA. The previous approach is modified using multi-criteria analysis, dam failure models, and instantaneous water quality models, which are modified for application to multiple tailings ponds. The study area covers the basin of Gutanting Reservoir (the largest backup drinking water source for Beijing) in Zhangjiakou City, where many mine tailings ponds are located. The resultant map shows that risk is higher downstream of Gutanting Reservoir and in its two tributary basins (i.e., Qingshui River and Longyang River). Conversely, risk is lower in the midstream and upstream reaches. The analysis also indicates that the most hazardous mine tailings ponds are located in Chongli and Xuanhua, and that Guanting Reservoir is the most vulnerable receptor. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are performed to validate the robustness of the WTPRA method. PMID:26633450

  19. Accidental Water Pollution Risk Analysis of Mine Tailings Ponds in Guanting Reservoir Watershed, Zhangjiakou City, China

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Renzhi; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Zhijiao; Borthwick, Alistair; Zhang, Ke

    2015-01-01

    Over the past half century, a surprising number of major pollution incidents occurred due to tailings dam failures. Most previous studies of such incidents comprised forensic analyses of environmental impacts after a tailings dam failure, with few considering the combined pollution risk before incidents occur at a watershed-scale. We therefore propose Watershed-scale Tailings-pond Pollution Risk Analysis (WTPRA), designed for multiple mine tailings ponds, stemming from previous watershed-scale accidental pollution risk assessments. Transferred and combined risk is embedded using risk rankings of multiple routes of the “source-pathway-target” in the WTPRA. The previous approach is modified using multi-criteria analysis, dam failure models, and instantaneous water quality models, which are modified for application to multiple tailings ponds. The study area covers the basin of Gutanting Reservoir (the largest backup drinking water source for Beijing) in Zhangjiakou City, where many mine tailings ponds are located. The resultant map shows that risk is higher downstream of Gutanting Reservoir and in its two tributary basins (i.e., Qingshui River and Longyang River). Conversely, risk is lower in the midstream and upstream reaches. The analysis also indicates that the most hazardous mine tailings ponds are located in Chongli and Xuanhua, and that Guanting Reservoir is the most vulnerable receptor. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are performed to validate the robustness of the WTPRA method. PMID:26633450

  20. Climate change induced risk analysis of Addis Ababa city (Ethiopia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jalayer, Fatemeh; Herslund, Lise; Cavan, Gina; Printz, Andreas; Simonis, Ingo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Hellevik, Siri; Fekade, Rebka; Nebebe, Alemu; Woldegerima, Tekle; Workalemahu, Liku; Workneh, Abraham; Yonas, Nebyou; Abebe Bekele, Essete; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

    2013-04-01

    CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its objective is to develop context-centered methods to assess vulnerability and increase knowledge on managing climate related risks and to estimate the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The project downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves, desertification. It also evaluates and links: social vulnerability; urban green structures and ecosystem services; urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. CLUVA combines assessment approaches to investigate how cities, communities and households can resist and cope with, as well as recover from climate induced hazards. This multi-scale and multi-disciplinary qualitative, quantitative and probabilistic approach of CLUVA is currently being applied to selected African test cities (Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania; Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso; St. Louis - Senegal). In particular, the poster will report on the progresses of the Addis Ababa case study. Addis Ababa, the largest city in Ethiopia, is exposed to heat waves, drought, and, more recently, to flash floods. Due to undulating topography, poor waste management and the absence of sustainable storm water management, Addis Ababa is prone to severe flood events during the rainy seasons. Metropolitan Addis Ababa is crossed by several small watercourses. Torrential rains, very common during the rainy season, cause a sudden rise in the flow of these water courses, inundating and damaging the settlements along their banks and affecting the livelihood of the local population. The combination of climate change and development pressures are expected to exacerbate the

  1. Development of distribution system reliability and risk analysis models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Northcote-Green, J. E. D.; Vismor, T. D.; Brooks, C. L.

    1981-08-01

    The overall objectives of a research project were to: determine distribution reliability assessment methods currently used by the industry; develop a general outage reporting scheme suitable for a wide variety of distributing utilities (reliability model); develop a model for predicting the reliability of future system configurations (risk model); and compile a handbook of reliability assessment methods designed specifically for use by the practicing distribution engineer. Emphasis was placed on compiling and organizing reliability assessment techniques presently used by the industry. The project examined reliability evaluation from two perspectives: historical and predictive assessment. Two reliability assessment models, HISRAM - the historical reliability assessment model and PRAM - the predictive reliability assessment model were developed. Each model was tested in a utility environment by the Duquesne Light Company and the Public Service Electric and Gas Company of New Jersey. A survey of 56 diverse utilities served as a basis for examining current distribution reliability assessment practices in the electric power industry.

  2. Smoking, Radiotherapy, Diabetes and Osteoporosis as Risk Factors for Dental Implant Failure: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Hui; Liu, Nizhou; Xu, Xinchen; Qu, Xinhua; Lu, Eryi

    2013-01-01

    Background There are conflicting reports as to the association between smoking, radiotherapy, diabetes and osteoporosis and the risk of dental implant failure. We undertook a meta-analysis to evaluate the association between smoking, radiotherapy, diabetes and osteoporosis and the risk of dental implant failure. Methods A comprehensive research on MEDLINE and EMBASE, up to January 2013, was conducted to identify potential studies. References of relevant studies were also searched. Screening, data extraction and quality assessment were conducted independently and in duplicate. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool estimates of relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results A total of 51 studies were identified in this meta-analysis, with more than 40,000 dental implants placed under risk-threatening conditions. The pooled RRs showed a direct association between smoking (n = 33; RR = 1.92; 95% CI, 1.67–2.21) and radiotherapy (n = 16; RR = 2.28; 95% CI, 1.49–3.51) and the risk of dental implant failure, whereas no inverse impact of diabetes (n = 5; RR = 0.90; 95% CI, 0.62–1.32) on the risk of dental implant failure was found. The influence of osteoporosis on the risk of dental implant failure was direct but not significant (n = 4; RR = 1.09; 95% CI, 0.79–1.52). The subgroup analysis indicated no influence of study design, geographical location, length of follow-up, sample size, or mean age of recruited patients. Conclusions Smoking and radiotherapy were associated with an increased risk of dental implant failure. The relationship between diabetes and osteoporosis and the risk of implant failure warrant further study. PMID:23940794

  3. The risk of kidney stones following bariatric surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Thongprayoon, Charat; Cheungpasitporn, Wisit; Vijayvargiya, Priya; Anthanont, Pimjai; Erickson, Stephen B

    2016-04-01

    Background With rising prevalence of morbid obesity, the number of bariatric surgeries performed each year has been increasing worldwide. The objective of this meta-analysis was to assess the risk of kidney stones following bariatric surgery. Methods A literature search was performed using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception through July 2015. Only studies reporting relative risks, odd ratios or hazard ratios (HRs) to compare risk of kidney stones in patients who underwent bariatric surgery versus no surgery were included. Pooled risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using a random-effect, generic inverse variance method. Results Four studies (One randomized controlled trial and three cohort studies) with 11,348 patients were included in analysis to assess the risk of kidney stones following bariatric surgery. The pooled RR of kidney stones in patients undergoing bariatric surgery was 1.22 (95% CI, 0.63-2.35). The type of bariatric surgery subgroup analysis demonstrated an increased risk of kidney stones in patients following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) with the pooled RR of 1.73 (95% CI, 1.30-2.30) and a decreased risk of kidney stones in patients following restrictive procedures including laparoscopic banding or sleeve gastrectomy with the pooled RR of 0.37 (95% CI, 0.16-0.85). Conclusions Our meta-analysis demonstrates an association between RYGB and increased risk of kidney stones. Restrictive bariatric surgery, on the other hand, may decrease kidney stone risk. Future study with long-term follow-up data is needed to confirm this potential benefit of restrictive bariatric surgery. PMID:26803902

  4. Relative Risk of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: A Spatial Analysis in Urban Area

    PubMed Central

    de Araújo, Valdelaine Etelvina Miranda; Pinheiro, Letícia Cavalari; Almeida, Maria Cristina de Mattos; de Menezes, Fernanda Carvalho; Morais, Maria Helena Franco; Reis, Ilka Afonso; Assunção, Renato Martins; Carneiro, Mariângela

    2013-01-01

    Background Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease whose factors involved in transmission are poorly understood, especially in more urban and densely populated counties. In Brazil, the VL urbanization is a challenge for the control program. The goals were to identify the greater risk areas for human VL and the risk factors involved in transmission. Methodology This is an ecological study on the relative risk of human VL. Spatial units of analysis were the coverage areas of the Basic Health Units (146 small-areas) of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Human VL cases, from 2007 to 2009 (n = 412), were obtained in the Brazilian Reportable Disease Information System. Bayesian approach was used to model the relative risk of VL including potential risk factors involved in transmission (canine infection, socioeconomic and environmental features) and to identify the small-areas of greater risk to human VL. Principal Findings The relative risk of VL was shown to be correlated with income, education, and the number of infected dogs per inhabitants. The estimates of relative risk of VL were higher than 1.0 in 54% of the areas (79/146). The spatial modeling highlighted 14 areas with the highest relative risk of VL and 12 of them are concentrated in the northern region of the city. Conclusions The spatial analysis used in this study is useful for the identification of small-areas according to risk of human VL and presents operational applicability in control and surveillance program in an urban environment with an unequal spatial distribution of the disease. Thus the frequent monitoring of relative risk of human VL in small-areas is important to direct and prioritize the actions of the control program in urban environment, especially in big cities. PMID:24244776

  5. Analysis of purine metabolites in maternal serum for evaluating the risk of gestosis.

    PubMed

    Senyavina, N V; Khaustova, S A; Grebennik, T K; Pavlovich, S V

    2013-09-01

    Metabolome analysis of the serum from pregnant patients aimed at detection of low-molecular-weight biomarkers of gestation process disorders indicated a relationship between the metabolic profile of maternal serum and risk of gestosis. In women with pre-eclampsia or preterm delivery, analysis of serum purine metabolites revealed changes in the metabolite concentrations, associated with pregnancy complications. PMID:24288739

  6. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VIII - Risk Assessment Documentation Package

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  7. Intercellular Adhesion Molecule-1 (ICAM-1) Polymorphisms and Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    CHENG, Daye; LIANG, Bin

    2015-01-01

    Background: Intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) Lys469Glu (K469E) polymorphism and Gly 241Arg (G241R) polymorphism might play important roles in cancer development and progression. However, the results of previous studies are inconsistent. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between ICAM-1 K469E and G241R polymorphisms and the risk of cancer by meta-analysis. Methods: A comprehensive literature search (last search updated in November 2013) was conducted to identify case-control studies that investigated the association between ICAM-1 K469E and G241R polymorphisms and cancer risk. Results: A total of 18 case-control studies for ICAM-1 polymorphisms were included in the meta-analysis, including 4,844 cancer cases and 5,618 healthy controls. For K469E polymorphism, no significant association was found between K469E polymorphism and cancer risk. However, subgroup analysis by ethnicity revealed one genetic comparison (GG vs. AA) presented the relationship with cancer risk in Asian subgroup, and two genetic models (GG+GA vs. AA and GA vs. AA) in European subgroup, respectively. For G241R polymorphism, G241R polymorphism was significantly association with cancer risk in overall analysis. The subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed that G241R polymorphism was significantly associated with cancer risk in European subgroup. Conclusion: ICAM-1 G241R polymorphism might be associated with cancer risk, especially in European populations, but the results doesn’t support ICAM-1 K469E polymorphism as a risk factor for cancer. PMID:26284202

  8. Myeloperoxidase Polymorphism, Menopausal Status, and Breast Cancer Risk: An Update Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Qi-Liu; Huang, Xiu-Li; Mo, Cui-Ju; Li, Shan; Zhao, Jin-Min

    2013-01-01

    Myeloperoxidase (MPO) is a metabolic/oxidative lysosomal enzyme secreted by reactive neutrophils at the sites of inflamed organs and tissues during phagocytosis. MPO has been either directly or indirectly linked to neoplasia, which is a well-established risk factor for many types of cancer. A large number of studies have reported the role of MPO G-463A polymorphism regarding breast-cancer risk. However, the published findings are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to determine more precise estimations for the relationship. Eligible studies were identified by searching several electronic databases for relevant reports published before June 2012. According to the inclusion criteria and exclusion criteria, a total of five eligible studies were included in the pooled analyses. When the five eligible studies concerning MPO G-463A polymorphism were pooled into this meta-analysis, there was no evidence found for a significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk in any genetic model. We also categorized by ethnicity (Caucasian or Asian) for subgroup analysis; according to this subgroup analysis, we found no significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk in any genetic model. However, in the stratified analysis for the premenopausal group, women carrying the AA genotype were found to have a significantly reduced risk (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.34–0.94, p = 0.027). Under the recessive model, there was a significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk (OR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.34–0.93, p = 0.025). We conclude that MPO-G463A polymorphism might not be a good predictor of breast-cancer risk, though menopausal status modified women’s risk of developing breast cancer. PMID:23991124

  9. Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

    2006-01-01

    We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

  10. Seismically induced relay chatter risk analysis for the Advanced Test Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Khericha, S.T.; Calley, M.B.; Farmer, F.G.; Eide, S.A.; Ravindra, M.K.; Campbell, R.D.

    1992-12-31

    A seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed as part of the Level I PRA for the Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). This seismic PRA included a comprehensive and efficient seismically-induced relay chatter risk analysis. The key elements to this comprehensive and efficient seismically-induced relay chatter analysis included (1) screening procedures to identify the critical relays to be evaluated, (2) streamlined seismic fragility evaluation, and (3) comprehensive seismic risk evaluation using detailed event trees and fault trees. These key elements were performed to provide a core fuel damage frequency evaluation due to seismically induced relay chatter. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of including seismically-induced relay chatter events in the seismic PRA. The systems analysis was performed by EG&G Idaho, Inc. and the fragilities for the relays were developed by EQE Engineering Consultants.

  11. Seismically induced relay chatter risk analysis for the Advanced Test Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Khericha, S.T.; Calley, M.B.; Farmer, F.G. ); Eide, S.A. ); Ravindra, M.K.; Campbell, R.D. )

    1992-01-01

    A seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed as part of the Level I PRA for the Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). This seismic PRA included a comprehensive and efficient seismically-induced relay chatter risk analysis. The key elements to this comprehensive and efficient seismically-induced relay chatter analysis included (1) screening procedures to identify the critical relays to be evaluated, (2) streamlined seismic fragility evaluation, and (3) comprehensive seismic risk evaluation using detailed event trees and fault trees. These key elements were performed to provide a core fuel damage frequency evaluation due to seismically induced relay chatter. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of including seismically-induced relay chatter events in the seismic PRA. The systems analysis was performed by EG G Idaho, Inc. and the fragilities for the relays were developed by EQE Engineering Consultants.

  12. 76 FR 50992 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Shredded Lettuce From Egypt

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-17

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the...: Notice. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the... weeds via the importation of fresh shredded lettuce from Egypt. We are making the pest risk...

  13. 7 CFR 319.37-12 - Prohibited articles and articles whose importation is not authorized pending pest risk analysis...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... not authorized pending pest risk analysis accompanying restricted articles. 319.37-12 Section 319.37... Prohibited articles and articles whose importation is not authorized pending pest risk analysis accompanying... in the same container as an article whose importation is not authorized pending pest risk...

  14. 7 CFR 319.37-12 - Prohibited articles and articles whose importation is not authorized pending pest risk analysis...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... not authorized pending pest risk analysis accompanying restricted articles. 319.37-12 Section 319.37... Prohibited articles and articles whose importation is not authorized pending pest risk analysis accompanying... in the same container as an article whose importation is not authorized pending pest risk...

  15. 76 FR 38349 - Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Dragon Fruit From Thailand...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-30

    ...We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation into the continental United States of dragon fruit from Thailand. Based on this analysis, we believe that the application of one or more designated phytosanitary measures will be sufficient to mitigate the risks of introducing or disseminating plant pests or noxious......

  16. Sensitivity analysis of the Ohio phosphorus risk index

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Phosphorus (P) Index is a widely used tool for assessing the vulnerability of agricultural fields to P loss; yet, few of the P Indices developed in the U.S. have been evaluated for their accuracy. Sensitivity analysis is one approach that can be used prior to calibration and field-scale testing ...

  17. Risk Factor Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Teresa E. Jordan

    2015-09-30

    This submission contains information used to compute the risk factors for the GPFA-AB project (DE-EE0006726). The risk factors are natural reservoir quality, thermal resource quality, potential for induced seismicity, and utilization. The methods used to combine the risk factors included taking the product, sum, and minimum of the four risk factors. The files are divided into images, rasters, shapefiles, and supporting information. The image files show what the raster and shapefiles should look like. The raster files contain the input risk factors, calculation of the scaled risk factors, and calculation of the combined risk factors. The shapefiles include definition of the fairways, definition of the US Census Places, the center of the raster cells, and locations of industries. Supporting information contains details of the calculations or processing used in generating the files. An image of the raster will have the same name except *.png as the file ending instead of *.tif. Images with “fairways” or “industries” added to the name are composed of a raster with the relevant shapefile added. The file About_GPFA-AB_Phase1RiskAnalysisTask5DataUpload.pdf contains information the citation, special use considerations, authorship, etc. More details on each file are given in the spreadsheet “list_of_contents.csv” in the folder “SupportingInfo”. Code used to calculate values is available at https://github.com/calvinwhealton/geothermal_pfa under the folder “combining_metrics”.

  18. Association between Breastfeeding and Endometrial Cancer Risk: Evidence from a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Lianlian; Li, Jingxi; Shi, Zhan

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of the association between breastfeeding and risk of endometrial cancer is still conflicting. We therefore conducted a meta-analysis to assess the association between breastfeeding and endometrial cancer risk. Pertinent studies were identified by a search of PubMed and Web of Knowledge through April 2015. A random effect model was used to combine the data for analysis. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias were conducted. Dose-response relationships were assessed by restricted cubic spline and variance-weighted least squares regression analysis. Fourteen articles involving 5158 endometrial cancer cases and 706,946 participants were included in this meta-analysis. Pooled results suggested that breastfeeding significantly reduced the risk of endometrial cancer (summary relative risk (RR): 0.77, 95% CI: 0.62–0.96, I2: 63.0%), especially in North America (summary RR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.79–0.95). A linear dose-response relationship was found, with the risk of endometrial cancer decreased by 2% for every one-month increase in the duration of breastfeeding (summary RR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97–0.99). Our analysis suggested that breastfeeding, particularly a longer duration of breastfeeding, was inversely associated with the risk of endometrial cancer, especially in North America, but not in Europe and Asia, probably due to the small number of cases included. Due to this limitation, further studies originating in other countries are required to assess the association between breastfeeding and endometrial cancer risk. PMID:26184301

  19. Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu

    2016-01-01

    Background Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. Methods We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Results Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50–0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58–0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71–1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger’s test (p = 0.26). Conclusions This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted. PMID:26960146

  20. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: food and nutrition.

    PubMed

    Tijhuis, M J; de Jong, N; Pohjola, M V; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Hendriksen, M; Hoekstra, J; Holm, F; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; van Leeuwen, F X R; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Rompelberg, C; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    Benefit-risk assessment in food and nutrition is relatively new. It weighs the beneficial and adverse effects that a food (component) may have, in order to facilitate more informed management decisions regarding public health issues. It is rooted in the recognition that good food and nutrition can improve health and that some risk may be acceptable if benefit is expected to outweigh it. This paper presents an overview of current concepts and practices in benefit-risk analysis for food and nutrition. It aims to facilitate scientists and policy makers in performing, interpreting and evaluating benefit-risk assessments. Historically, the assessments of risks and benefits have been separate processes. Risk assessment is mainly addressed by toxicology, as demanded by regulation. It traditionally assumes that a maximum safe dose can be determined from experimental studies (usually in animals) and that applying appropriate uncertainty factors then defines the 'safe' intake for human populations. There is a minor role for other research traditions in risk assessment, such as epidemiology, which quantifies associations between determinants and health effects in humans. These effects can be both adverse and beneficial. Benefit assessment is newly developing in regulatory terms, but has been the subject of research for a long time within nutrition and epidemiology. The exact scope is yet to be defined. Reductions in risk can be termed benefits, but also states rising above 'the average health' are explored as benefits. In nutrition, current interest is in 'optimal' intake; from a population perspective, but also from a more individualised perspective. In current approaches to combine benefit and risk assessment, benefit assessment mirrors the traditional risk assessment paradigm of hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization. Benefit-risk comparison can be qualitative and quantitative. In a quantitative comparison, benefits