Science.gov

Sample records for adversarial risk analysis

  1. Adversarial risk analysis for counterterrorism modeling.

    PubMed

    Rios, Jesus; Rios Insua, David

    2012-05-01

    Recent large-scale terrorist attacks have raised interest in models for resource allocation against terrorist threats. The unifying theme in this area is the need to develop methods for the analysis of allocation decisions when risks stem from the intentional actions of intelligent adversaries. Most approaches to these problems have a game-theoretic flavor although there are also several interesting decision-analytic-based proposals. One of them is the recently introduced framework for adversarial risk analysis, which deals with decision-making problems that involve intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. We explore how adversarial risk analysis addresses some standard counterterrorism models: simultaneous defend-attack models, sequential defend-attack-defend models, and sequential defend-attack models with private information. For each model, we first assess critically what would be a typical game-theoretic approach and then provide the corresponding solution proposed by the adversarial risk analysis framework, emphasizing how to coherently assess a predictive probability model of the adversary's actions, in a context in which we aim at supporting decisions of a defender versus an attacker. This illustrates the application of adversarial risk analysis to basic counterterrorism models that may be used as basic building blocks for more complex risk analysis of counterterrorism problems.

  2. Modeling Opponents in Adversarial Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Rios Insua, David; Banks, David; Rios, Jesus

    2016-04-01

    Adversarial risk analysis has been introduced as a framework to deal with risks derived from intentional actions of adversaries. The analysis supports one of the decisionmakers, who must forecast the actions of the other agents. Typically, this forecast must take account of random consequences resulting from the set of selected actions. The solution requires one to model the behavior of the opponents, which entails strategic thinking. The supported agent may face different kinds of opponents, who may use different rationality paradigms, for example, the opponent may behave randomly, or seek a Nash equilibrium, or perform level-k thinking, or use mirroring, or employ prospect theory, among many other possibilities. We describe the appropriate analysis for these situations, and also show how to model the uncertainty about the rationality paradigm used by the opponent through a Bayesian model averaging approach, enabling a fully decision-theoretic solution. We also show how as we observe an opponent's decision behavior, this approach allows learning about the validity of each of the rationality models used to predict his decision by computing the models' (posterior) probabilities, which can be understood as a measure of their validity. We focus on simultaneous decision making by two agents.

  3. Intelligent adversary risk analysis: a bioterrorism risk management model.

    PubMed

    Parnell, Gregory S; Smith, Christopher M; Moxley, Frederick I

    2010-01-01

    The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender-attacker-defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The risk management model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data.

  4. Adversarial Risk Analysis for Urban Security Resource Allocation.

    PubMed

    Gil, César; Rios Insua, David; Rios, Jesus

    2016-04-01

    Adversarial risk analysis (ARA) provides a framework to deal with risks originating from intentional actions of adversaries. We show how ARA may be used to allocate security resources in the protection of urban spaces. We take into account the spatial structure and consider both proactive and reactive measures, in that we aim at both trying to reduce criminality as well as recovering as best as possible from it, should it happen. We deal with the problem by deploying an ARA model over each spatial unit, coordinating the models through resource constraints, value aggregation, and proximity. We illustrate our approach with an example that uncovers several relevant policy issues.

  5. The Adversarial Route Analysis Tool: A Web Application

    SciTech Connect

    Casson, William H. Jr.

    2012-08-02

    The Adversarial Route Analysis Tool is a type of Google maps for adversaries. It's a web-based Geospatial application similar to Google Maps. It helps the U.S. government plan operations that predict where an adversary might be. It's easily accessible and maintainble and it's simple to use without much training.

  6. A5: Automated Analysis of Adversarial Android Applications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-03

    A5: Automated Analysis of Adversarial Android Applications Timothy Vidas, Jiaqi Tan, Jay Nahata, Chaur Lih Tan, Nicolas Christin...03 JUN 2014 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A5: Automated Analysis of Adversarial Android ...to process Android malware. A5 is a hybrid system combining static and dynamic malware analysis techniques. Android ?s architecture permits many

  7. AGATE: Adversarial Game Analysis for Tactical Evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huntsberger, Terrance L.

    2013-01-01

    AGATE generates a set of ranked strategies that enables an autonomous vehicle to track/trail another vehicle that is trying to break the contact using evasive tactics. The software is efficient (can be run on a laptop), scales well with environmental complexity, and is suitable for use onboard an autonomous vehicle. The software will run in near-real-time (2 Hz) on most commercial laptops. Existing software is usually run offline in a planning mode, and is not used to control an unmanned vehicle actively. JPL has developed a system for AGATE that uses adversarial game theory (AGT) methods (in particular, leader-follower and pursuit-evasion) to enable an autonomous vehicle (AV) to maintain tracking/ trailing operations on a target that is employing evasive tactics. The AV trailing, tracking, and reacquisition operations are characterized by imperfect information, and are an example of a non-zero sum game (a positive payoff for the AV is not necessarily an equal loss for the target being tracked and, potentially, additional adversarial boats). Previously, JPL successfully applied the Nash equilibrium method for onboard control of an autonomous ground vehicle (AGV) travelling over hazardous terrain.

  8. Validation of Rational Deterrence Theory: Analysis of U.S. Government and Adversary Risk Propensity and Relative Emphasis on Gain or Loss

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-03-01

    31 B. RISK ANALYSIS PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATION ...........................32 1...37 4. Relative Emphasis on Loss or Gain..................................................39 5. Applicability of...53 III. CASE STUDY ANALYSIS: METHODOLOGY APPLICATION .......................57 A. CASE STUDY OVERVIEW

  9. Adversarial inferencing for generating dynamic adversary behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surman, Joshua M.; Hillman, Robert G.; Santos, Eugene, Jr.

    2003-09-01

    In the current world environment, the rapidly changing dynamics of organizational adversaries are increasing the difficulty for Military Analysts and Planners to accurately predict potential actions. As an integral part of the planning process, we need to assess our planning strategies against the range of potential adversarial actions. This dynamic world environment has established a necessity to develop tools to assist in establishing hypotheses for future adversary actions. Our research investigated the feasibility to utilize an adversarial tool as the core element within a predictive simulation to establish emergent adversarial behavior. It is our desire to use this intelligent adversary to generate alternative futures in performing Course of Action (COA) analysis. Such a system will allow planners to gauge and evaluate the effectiveness of alternative plans under varying actions and reactions. This research focuses on one of many possible techniques required to address the technical challenge of generating intelligent adversary behaviors. This development activity addresses two research components. First, establish an environment in which to perform the feasibility experiment and analysis. The proof of concept performed to analyze and assess this feasibility of utilizing an adversarial inferencing system to provide emergent adversary behavior is discussed. Second, determine if the appropriate interfaces can be reasonably established to provide integration with an existing force structure simulation framework. The authors also describe the envisioned simulation system and the software development performed to extend the inferencing engine and system interface toward that goal. The experimental results of observing emergent adversary behavior by applying the simulated COAs to the adversary model will be discussed. The research addresses numerous technological challenges in developing the necessary methodologies and tools for a software-based COA analysis

  10. Adversarial Risk Analysis for Dynamic Network Routing

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-03-20

    Industry Conference, the Conference on Algorithmic Decision Making (sponsored by DIMACS at Rutgers), Pennsylvania State University, the Army Conference on...kinds of decision processes that normal people regularly employ. 5 Bibliography Arce, D. and T. Sandler (2007). Terrorist Signalling and the Value of...game-theorist Gintis, 2009). A second issue is that it does not take account of all the information that is available (cf. Arce and Sandler , 2007

  11. Extended defense systems :I. adversary-defender modeling grammar for vulnerability analysis and threat assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Merkle, Peter Benedict

    2006-03-01

    Vulnerability analysis and threat assessment require systematic treatments of adversary and defender characteristics. This work addresses the need for a formal grammar for the modeling and analysis of adversary and defender engagements of interest to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Analytical methods treating both linguistic and numerical information should ensure that neither aspect has disproportionate influence on assessment outcomes. The adversary-defender modeling (ADM) grammar employs classical set theory and notation. It is designed to incorporate contributions from subject matter experts in all relevant disciplines, without bias. The Attack Scenario Space U{sub S} is the set universe of all scenarios possible under physical laws. An attack scenario is a postulated event consisting of the active engagement of at least one adversary with at least one defended target. Target Information Space I{sub S} is the universe of information about targets and defenders. Adversary and defender groups are described by their respective Character super-sets, (A){sub P} and (D){sub F}. Each super-set contains six elements: Objectives, Knowledge, Veracity, Plans, Resources, and Skills. The Objectives are the desired end-state outcomes. Knowledge is comprised of empirical and theoretical a priori knowledge and emergent knowledge (learned during an attack), while Veracity is the correspondence of Knowledge with fact or outcome. Plans are ordered activity-task sequences (tuples) with logical contingencies. Resources are the a priori and opportunistic physical assets and intangible attributes applied to the execution of associated Plans elements. Skills for both adversary and defender include the assumed general and task competencies for the associated plan set, the realized value of competence in execution or exercise, and the opponent's planning assumption of the task competence.

  12. Evaluation of risk from acts of terrorism :the adversary/defender model using belief and fuzzy sets.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2006-09-01

    Risk from an act of terrorism is a combination of the likelihood of an attack, the likelihood of success of the attack, and the consequences of the attack. The considerable epistemic uncertainty in each of these three factors can be addressed using the belief/plausibility measure of uncertainty from the Dempster/Shafer theory of evidence. The adversary determines the likelihood of the attack. The success of the attack and the consequences of the attack are determined by the security system and mitigation measures put in place by the defender. This report documents a process for evaluating risk of terrorist acts using an adversary/defender model with belief/plausibility as the measure of uncertainty. Also, the adversary model is a linguistic model that applies belief/plausibility to fuzzy sets used in an approximate reasoning rule base.

  13. Compliance monitoring for the chemical weapons convention preliminary operational concepts--an adversarial analysis. Technical report, 5 September-12 November 1991

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, D.; Rudney, B.

    1993-07-01

    The objective of this report is to assess preliminary operational concepts developed by the U.S. Army Chemical Research, Development and Engineering Center (CRDEC). The 'Adversarial Analysis Methodology for the Chemical Weapons Convention,' developed by the JAYCOR Team, provides a conceptual framework and criteria for this assessment. Adversarial analysis (AA) complements the CRDEC methodology by accounting for noncompliance activities and includes risk and vulnerability analyses as well as a politico-strategic assessment of potentially noncompliant nations. CRDEC highlights many difficulties, flaws, and discrepancies in the formal CWC verification regime. AA helps overcome these shortcomings. First, it identifies how an adversary might accomplish cheating, spoofing, and circumvention (CSC), including underlying motivations and objectives. Second, it highlights potential verification system vulnerabilities that would permit CSC. Finally, it assesses the impact of such activities qualitatively and quantitatively. The end product of this approach is a vulnerability assessment report describing the potential effectiveness of various deceptive practices and recommendations for improving the verification regime's resistance to deception.... On-Site Inspections, CRDEC, Adversarial Analysis, Verification, Deception, Chemical Weapons, Convention, Chemical Weapons, Noncompliance.

  14. Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model (PREPRINT)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-02-20

    pseudomallei Emerging infectious disease threats such as Nipah virus and additional hantaviruses . • Coxiella burnetii (Q fever) • Clostridium...Waterborne Pathogens • Lassa Fever • Other Rickettsias • Bacteria • Bunyaviruses • Rabies • Diarrheagenic E.coli • Hantaviruses • Prions* • Pathogenic

  15. Assessing and Minimizing Adversarial Risk in a Nuclear Material Transportation Network

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-01

    small modular reactor [21]. This technique seeks to categorize attacks in terms of their difficulty to execute, and then to assess risk by comparing “attack difficulty” with “potential attacker capability.” Cipiti et al. consider 13 dimensions of attack difficulty on a small modular reactor (grouped into two categories: attack preparation and attack execution), and for each of these 13 dimensions they divide difficulty into five levels, with level 1 being the easiest and level 5 the most difficult. For each potential

  16. A Forensically Sound Adversary Model for Mobile Devices

    PubMed Central

    Choo, Kim-Kwang Raymond

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose an adversary model to facilitate forensic investigations of mobile devices (e.g. Android, iOS and Windows smartphones) that can be readily adapted to the latest mobile device technologies. This is essential given the ongoing and rapidly changing nature of mobile device technologies. An integral principle and significant constraint upon forensic practitioners is that of forensic soundness. Our adversary model specifically considers and integrates the constraints of forensic soundness on the adversary, in our case, a forensic practitioner. One construction of the adversary model is an evidence collection and analysis methodology for Android devices. Using the methodology with six popular cloud apps, we were successful in extracting various information of forensic interest in both the external and internal storage of the mobile device. PMID:26393812

  17. A Forensically Sound Adversary Model for Mobile Devices.

    PubMed

    Do, Quang; Martini, Ben; Choo, Kim-Kwang Raymond

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose an adversary model to facilitate forensic investigations of mobile devices (e.g. Android, iOS and Windows smartphones) that can be readily adapted to the latest mobile device technologies. This is essential given the ongoing and rapidly changing nature of mobile device technologies. An integral principle and significant constraint upon forensic practitioners is that of forensic soundness. Our adversary model specifically considers and integrates the constraints of forensic soundness on the adversary, in our case, a forensic practitioner. One construction of the adversary model is an evidence collection and analysis methodology for Android devices. Using the methodology with six popular cloud apps, we were successful in extracting various information of forensic interest in both the external and internal storage of the mobile device.

  18. Pitfalls and Potential of Adversary Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Worthen, Blaine R.; Rogers, W. Todd

    1980-01-01

    The core of adversary evaluation is the existence of opposing viewpoints, not adherence to existing formats for presenting them. Suggests that evaluators develop adversary methods more appropriate for education. (Author/MLF)

  19. Optimal Online Prediction in Adversarial Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartlett, Peter L.

    In many prediction problems, including those that arise in computer security and computational finance, the process generating the data is best modelled as an adversary with whom the predictor competes. Even decision problems that are not inherently adversarial can be usefully modeled in this way, since the assumptions are sufficiently weak that effective prediction strategies for adversarial settings are very widely applicable.

  20. Learning consensus in adversarial environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vamvoudakis, Kyriakos G.; García Carrillo, Luis R.; Hespanha, João. P.

    2013-05-01

    This work presents a game theory-based consensus problem for leaderless multi-agent systems in the presence of adversarial inputs that are introducing disturbance to the dynamics. Given the presence of enemy components and the possibility of malicious cyber attacks compromising the security of networked teams, a position agreement must be reached by the networked mobile team based on environmental changes. The problem is addressed under a distributed decision making framework that is robust to possible cyber attacks, which has an advantage over centralized decision making in the sense that a decision maker is not required to access information from all the other decision makers. The proposed framework derives three tuning laws for every agent; one associated with the cost, one associated with the controller, and one with the adversarial input.

  1. Localization under Adversary Misdirection

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-01

    monitoring, seismology , communication, speech, and image analysis [30]. A sensor network consists of two main parts: nodes that make measurements on the...parameter is a core signal processing task with application across a wide variety of fields including communication, seismology , speech, and image

  2. Advanced Agent Methods in Adversarial Environment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-11-30

    scenario for investigating agents social behaviour in non-collaborative and adversarial environment. Deliverable 2: (month 12) Interim report...definition of measures and quantities of agents collective behaviour , adapted social knowledge model, meta-reasoning model and coalition formation...13 2.3 Examples of Adversarial Behaviour

  3. Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morring, Frank, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    A National Academies panel says the Hubble Space Telescope is too valuable ;or gamblingon a long-shot robotic mission to extend its service life, and urges Directly contradicting Administrator Sean O'Keefe, who killed a planned fifth shuttle servicing mission to the telescope on grounds it was too dangerous for a human crew in the post-Challenger environment, the expert committee found that upgrades to shuttle safety actually should make it less hazardous to fly to the telescope than it was before Columbia was lost. Risks of a telescope-servicing mission are only marginally greater than the planned missions to the International Space Station (ISS) O'Keefe has authorized, the panel found. After comparing those risks to the dangers inherent in trying to develop a complex space robot in the 39 months remaining in the Hubble s estimated service life, the panel opted for the human mission to save one of the major achievements of the American space program, in the words of Louis J. Lanzerotti, its chairman.

  4. Taxonomies of Cyber Adversaries and Attacks: A Survey of Incidents and Approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Meyers, C A; Powers, S S; Faissol, D M

    2009-10-08

    In this paper we construct taxonomies of cyber adversaries and methods of attack, drawing from a survey of the literature in the area of cyber crime. We begin by addressing the scope of cyber crime, noting its prevalence and effects on the US economy. We then survey the literature on cyber adversaries, presenting a taxonomy of the different types of adversaries and their corresponding methods, motivations, maliciousness, and skill levels. Subsequently we survey the literature on cyber attacks, giving a taxonomy of the different classes of attacks, subtypes, and threat descriptions. The goal of this paper is to inform future studies of cyber security on the shape and characteristics of the risk space and its associated adversaries.

  5. An analytic approach to cyber adversarial dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweeney, Patrick; Cybenko, George

    2012-06-01

    To date, cyber security investment by both the government and commercial sectors has been largely driven by the myopic best response of players to the actions of their adversaries and their perception of the adversarial environment. However, current work in applying traditional game theory to cyber operations typically assumes that games exist with prescribed moves, strategies, and payos. This paper presents an analytic approach to characterizing the more realistic cyber adversarial metagame that we believe is being played. Examples show that understanding the dynamic metagame provides opportunities to exploit an adversary's anticipated attack strategy. A dynamic version of a graph-based attack-defend game is introduced, and a simulation shows how an optimal strategy can be selected for success in the dynamic environment.

  6. Departments Take Adversary Roles in Law Course.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Galie, Peter; Berlin, Barry

    1980-01-01

    A modified adversary context within a team teaching approach was used in a course on media law and ethics. Although some problems occurred, overall reaction to the course structures and teaching procedures was favorable. (RL)

  7. Scientific method, adversarial system, and technology assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayo, L. H.

    1975-01-01

    A basic framework is provided for the consideration of the purposes and techniques of scientific method and adversarial systems. Similarities and differences in these two techniques of inquiry are considered with reference to their relevance in the performance of assessments.

  8. FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

  9. Adversarial Feature Selection Against Evasion Attacks.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Fei; Chan, Patrick P K; Biggio, Battista; Yeung, Daniel S; Roli, Fabio

    2016-03-01

    Pattern recognition and machine learning techniques have been increasingly adopted in adversarial settings such as spam, intrusion, and malware detection, although their security against well-crafted attacks that aim to evade detection by manipulating data at test time has not yet been thoroughly assessed. While previous work has been mainly focused on devising adversary-aware classification algorithms to counter evasion attempts, only few authors have considered the impact of using reduced feature sets on classifier security against the same attacks. An interesting, preliminary result is that classifier security to evasion may be even worsened by the application of feature selection. In this paper, we provide a more detailed investigation of this aspect, shedding some light on the security properties of feature selection against evasion attacks. Inspired by previous work on adversary-aware classifiers, we propose a novel adversary-aware feature selection model that can improve classifier security against evasion attacks, by incorporating specific assumptions on the adversary's data manipulation strategy. We focus on an efficient, wrapper-based implementation of our approach, and experimentally validate its soundness on different application examples, including spam and malware detection.

  10. Using Machine Learning in Adversarial Environments.

    SciTech Connect

    Warren Leon Davis

    2016-02-01

    Intrusion/anomaly detection systems are among the first lines of cyber defense. Commonly, they either use signatures or machine learning (ML) to identify threats, but fail to account for sophisticated attackers trying to circumvent them. We propose to embed machine learning within a game theoretic framework that performs adversarial modeling, develops methods for optimizing operational response based on ML, and integrates the resulting optimization codebase into the existing ML infrastructure developed by the Hybrid LDRD. Our approach addresses three key shortcomings of ML in adversarial settings: 1) resulting classifiers are typically deterministic and, therefore, easy to reverse engineer; 2) ML approaches only address the prediction problem, but do not prescribe how one should operationalize predictions, nor account for operational costs and constraints; and 3) ML approaches do not model attackers’ response and can be circumvented by sophisticated adversaries. The principal novelty of our approach is to construct an optimization framework that blends ML, operational considerations, and a model predicting attackers reaction, with the goal of computing optimal moving target defense. One important challenge is to construct a realistic model of an adversary that is tractable, yet realistic. We aim to advance the science of attacker modeling by considering game-theoretic methods, and by engaging experimental subjects with red teaming experience in trying to actively circumvent an intrusion detection system, and learning a predictive model of such circumvention activities. In addition, we will generate metrics to test that a particular model of an adversary is consistent with available data.

  11. Capturing the uncertainty in adversary attack simulations.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.; Brooks, Traci N.; Berry, Robert Bruce

    2008-09-01

    This work provides a comprehensive uncertainty technique to evaluate uncertainty, resulting in a more realistic evaluation of PI, thereby requiring fewer resources to address scenarios and allowing resources to be used across more scenarios. For a given set of dversary resources, two types of uncertainty are associated with PI for a scenario: (1) aleatory (random) uncertainty for detection probabilities and time delays and (2) epistemic (state of knowledge) uncertainty for the adversary resources applied during an attack. Adversary esources consist of attributes (such as equipment and training) and knowledge about the security system; to date, most evaluations have assumed an adversary with very high resources, adding to the conservatism in the evaluation of PI. The aleatory uncertainty in PI is ddressed by assigning probability distributions to detection probabilities and time delays. A numerical sampling technique is used to evaluate PI, addressing the repeated variable dependence in the equation for PI.

  12. Analysis of Affordance, Time, and Adaptation in the Assessment of Industrial Control System Cybersecurity Risk.

    PubMed

    Busby, J S; Green, B; Hutchison, D

    2017-01-17

    Industrial control systems increasingly use standard communication protocols and are increasingly connected to public networks-creating substantial cybersecurity risks, especially when used in critical infrastructures such as electricity and water distribution systems. Methods of assessing risk in such systems have recognized for some time the way in which the strategies of potential adversaries and risk managers interact in defining the risk to which such systems are exposed. But it is also important to consider the adaptations of the systems' operators and other legitimate users to risk controls, adaptations that often appear to undermine these controls, or shift the risk from one part of a system to another. Unlike the case with adversarial risk analysis, the adaptations of system users are typically orthogonal to the objective of minimizing or maximizing risk in the system. We argue that this need to analyze potential adaptations to risk controls is true for risk problems more generally, and we develop a framework for incorporating such adaptations into an assessment process. The method is based on the principle of affordances, and we show how this can be incorporated in an iterative procedure based on raising the minimum period of risk materialization above some threshold. We apply the method in a case study of a small European utility provider and discuss the observations arising from this.

  13. Auditing Rational Adversaries to Provably Manage Risks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-23

    PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Carnegie...investigation has affected changes in patient data privacy and security programs , according to 55 percent of respondents.” Prediction 2: Interventions that...26] HHS. HIPAA Privacy and Security Audit Program . [27] W. Hoeffding. Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables. Journal of the

  14. Probabilistic Characterization of Adversary Behavior in Cyber Security

    SciTech Connect

    Meyers, C A; Powers, S S; Faissol, D M

    2009-10-08

    The objective of this SMS effort is to provide a probabilistic characterization of adversary behavior in cyber security. This includes both quantitative (data analysis) and qualitative (literature review) components. A set of real LLNL email data was obtained for this study, consisting of several years worth of unfiltered traffic sent to a selection of addresses at ciac.org. The email data was subjected to three interrelated analyses: a textual study of the header data and subject matter, an examination of threats present in message attachments, and a characterization of the maliciousness of embedded URLs.

  15. Legality in Cyberspace: An Adversary View

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-03-01

    REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Legality in Cyberspace: An Adversary View 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b...participation in national security policy formulation. iii Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press LEGALITY IN CYBERSPACE: AN... legality of hostile cyber activity at a state lev- el remains imperfectly defined. While there is broad agreement among the United States and its allies

  16. Quantitative environmental risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Klovning, J.; Nilsen, E.F.

    1995-12-31

    According to regulations relating to implementation and rise of risk analysis in the petroleum activities issued by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, it is mandatory for an operator on the Norwegian Continental Shelf to establish acceptance criteria for environmental risk in the activities and carry out environmental risk analysis. This paper presents a {open_quotes}new{close_quotes} method for environmental risk analysis developed by the company. The objective has been to assist the company to meet rules and regulations and to assess and describe the environmental risk in a systematic manner. In the environmental risk analysis the most sensitive biological resource in the affected area is used to assess the environmental damage. The analytical method is based on the methodology for quantitative risk analysis related to loss of life. In addition it incorporates the effect of seasonal fluctuations in the environmental risk evaluations. The paper is describing the function of the main analytical sequences exemplified through an analysis of environmental risk related to exploration drilling in an environmental sensitive area on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

  17. Using adversary text to detect adversary phase changes.

    SciTech Connect

    Speed, Ann Elizabeth; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Warrender, Christina E.

    2009-05-01

    The purpose of this work was to help develop a research roadmap and small proof ofconcept for addressing key problems and gaps from the perspective of using text analysis methods as a primary tool for detecting when a group is undergoing a phase change. Self- rganizing map (SOM) techniques were used to analyze text data obtained from the tworld-wide web. Statistical studies indicate that it may be possible to predict phase changes, as well as detect whether or not an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.

  18. Risk analysis methodology survey

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batson, Robert G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

  19. Is risk analysis scientific?

    PubMed

    Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

    2014-07-01

    This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part).

  20. Risk analysis before launch

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behlert, Rene

    1988-08-01

    A quality methodology is proposed based on risk analysis and observation of technical facts. The procedures for the quantization of a risk are described and examples are given. A closed loop quality analysis is described. Overall mission safety goals are described. The concept of maintenance is developed to evolutionary maintenance. It is shown that a large number of data must be processed to apply the proposed methods. The use of computer data processing is required.

  1. Incorporating opponent models into adversary search

    SciTech Connect

    Carmel, D.; Markovitch, S.

    1996-12-31

    This work presents a generalized theoretical framework that allows incorporation of opponent models into adversary search. We present the M* algorithm, a generalization of minimax that uses an arbitrary opponent model to simulate the opponent`s search. The opponent model is a recursive structure consisting of the opponent`s evaluation function and its model of the player. We demonstrate experimentally the potential benefit of using an opponent model. Pruning in M* is impossible in the general case. We prove a sufficient condition for pruning and present the {alpha}{beta}* algorithm which returns the M* value of a tree while searching only necessary branches.

  2. Program risk analysis handbook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batson, R. G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations specify that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from extremely simple to complex network-based simulation, are described in this handbook in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique. All program risk assessment techniques are shown to be based on elicitation and encoding of subjective probability estimates from the various area experts on a program. Techniques to encode the five most common distribution types are given. Then, a total of twelve distinct approaches to risk assessment are given. Steps involved, good and bad points, time involved, and degree of computer support needed are listed. Why risk analysis should be used by all NASA program managers is discussed. Tools available at NASA-MSFC are identified, along with commercially available software. Bibliography (150 entries) and a program risk analysis check-list are provided.

  3. Arguing with Adversaries: Aikido, Rhetoric, and the Art of Peace

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroll, Barry M.

    2008-01-01

    The Japanese martial art of aikido affords a framework for understanding argument as harmonization rather than confrontation. Two movements, circling away ("tenkan") and entering in ("irimi"), suggest tactics for arguing with adversaries. The ethical imperative of aikido involves protecting one's adversary from harm, using the least force…

  4. Uses and Abuses of Adversary Evaluation: A Consumer's Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Worthen, Blaine R.; Rogers, W. Todd

    The major potentials and pitfalls of adversary evaluation in education are discussed. Reasons why the courtroom model may have limited utility, and the difficulties in the debate model are identified. It is argued that the existence of opposing viewpoints is the core of adversary evaluation, not adherence to existing formats for presenting…

  5. DWPF risk analysis summary

    SciTech Connect

    Shedrow, C.B.

    1990-10-01

    This document contains selected risk analysis data from Chapter 9 (Safety Analysis) of the Defense Waste Processing Facility Safety Analysis Report DWPF SAR and draft Addendum 1 to the Waste Tank Farms SAR. Although these data may be revised prior to finalization of the draft SAR and the draft addendum, they are presently the best available information and were therefore used in preparing the risk analysis portion of the DWPF Environmental Analysis (DWPF EA). This information has been extracted from those draft documents an approved under separate cover so that it can be used as reference material for the DWPF EA when it is placed in the public reading rooms. 9 refs., 4 tabs.

  6. 'Meatball searching' - The adversarial approach to online information retrieval

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jack, R. F.

    1985-01-01

    It is proposed that the different styles of online searching can be described as either formal (highly precise) or informal with the needs of the client dictating which is most applicable at a particular moment. The background and personality of the searcher also come into play. Particular attention is focused on meatball searching which is a form of online searching characterized by deliberate vagueness. It requires generally comprehensive searches, often on unusual topics and with tight deadlines. It is most likely to occur in search centers serving many different disciplines and levels of client information sophistication. Various information needs are outlined as well as the laws of meatball searching and the adversarial approach. Traits and characteristics important to sucessful searching include: (1) concept analysis, (2) flexibility of thinking, (3) ability to think in synonyms and (4) anticipation of variant word forms and spellings.

  7. Potential criminal adversaries of nuclear programs: a portrait

    SciTech Connect

    Jenkins, B.M.

    1980-07-01

    This paper examines the possibility that terrorists or other kinds of criminals might attempt to seize or sabotage a nuclear facility, steal nuclear material, or carry out other criminal activities in the nuclear domain which has created special problems for the security of nuclear programs. This paper analyzes the potential threat. Our tasks was to describe the potential criminal adversary, or rather the spectrum of potential adversaries who conceivably might carry out malevolent criminal actions against nuclear programs and facilities. We were concerned with both the motivations as well as the material and operational capabilities likely to be displayed by various categories of potential nuclear adversaries.

  8. d-Dimensional quantum state sharing with adversary structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Huawang; Dai, Yuewei

    2016-04-01

    A quantum secret sharing scheme with adversary structure is proposed. In the proposed scheme, the secret is a d-dimensional quantum state. The dealer can distribute the private keys according to the adversary structure and encode the quantum state through the d-dimensional Pauli unitary operation. The legitimate participants perform the unitary operations on the encrypted quantum state according to their private keys and recover the original quantum state. Compared to the existing QSS schemes, our scheme can be more efficient when only the adversary structure is given.

  9. Expert evidence, the adversary system, and the jury.

    PubMed

    Vidmar, Neil

    2005-01-01

    Many assertions have been made about the competence of juries in dealing with expert evidence. I review the types of expert evidence that jurors hear and the impact of adversary legal procedure on the form and manner in which evidence is presented. Empirical research indicates that jurors understand the adversary process, that they do not automatically defer to the opinions of experts, and that their verdicts appear to be generally consistent with external criteria of performance. Conflicts between the American adversary system and changes in trial procedures that might assist the jury in its task are also considered here.

  10. Bring a gun to a gunfight: armed adversaries and violence across nations.

    PubMed

    Felson, Richard B; Berg, Mark T; Rogers, Meghan L

    2014-09-01

    We use homicide data and the International Crime Victimization Survey to examine the role of firearms in explaining cross-national variation in violence. We suggest that while gun violence begets gun violence, it inhibits the tendency to engage in violence without guns. We attribute the patterns to adversary effects-i.e., the tendency of offenders to take into account the threat posed by their adversaries. Multi-level analyses of victimization data support the hypothesis that living in countries with high rates of gun violence lowers an individual's risk of an unarmed assault and assaults with less lethal weapons. Analyses of aggregate data show that homicide rates and gun violence rates load on a separate underlying factor than other types of violence. The results suggest that a country's homicide rate reflects, to a large extent, the tendency of its offenders to use firearms.

  11. With God on our side: Religious primes reduce the envisioned physical formidability of a menacing adversary.

    PubMed

    Holbrook, Colin; Fessler, Daniel M T; Pollack, Jeremy

    2016-01-01

    The imagined support of benevolent supernatural agents attenuates anxiety and risk perception. Here, we extend these findings to judgments of the threat posed by a potentially violent adversary. Conceptual representations of bodily size and strength summarize factors that determine the relative threat posed by foes. The proximity of allies moderates the envisioned physical formidability of adversaries, suggesting that cues of access to supernatural allies will reduce the envisioned physical formidability of a threatening target. Across two studies, subtle cues of both supernatural and earthly social support reduced the envisioned physical formidability of a violent criminal. These manipulations had no effect on the perceived likelihood of encountering non-conflictual physical danger, raising the possibility that imagined supernatural support leads participants to view themselves not as shielded from encountering perilous situations, but as protected should perils arise.

  12. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    PubMed

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  13. Trial of an Adversary Hearing: Public Policy in Weather Modification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fairley, William; Mosteller, Frederick

    1972-01-01

    The organization, presentation, and results of a mock adversary hearing on a topic involving the use of simple and complex statistics is described. The use of this format as a teaching technique for mathematics and statistics classes is discussed. (DT)

  14. Developing a General Contingency Planner for Adversarial Planning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-06-01

    and executing the procedures attached to the goal object. Goal objects are simply structures containing data and functions acting on this data. They...Planning in Uncertain ’Environments ......... 11 2.1.7 Explicitly Dealing With Time ............... 12 2.1.8 Distributed Execution of Plans...Dealing with Time in Adversarial Planning .. 39 ii SECTION PAGE 3.2.8 Distributed Execution in Adversarial Pl1a nliay e* * 6 o oe 6 oo o wo 6 o

  15. Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment

    SciTech Connect

    2014-02-10

    RAVEN has 3 major functionalities: 1. Provides a Graphical User Interface for the pre- and post-processing of the RELAP-7 input and output. 2. Provides the capability to model nuclear power plants control logic for the RELAP-7 code and dynamic control of the accident scenario evolution. This capability is based on a software structure that realizes a direct connection between the RELAP-7 solver engine (MOOSE) and a python environment where the variables describing the plant status are accessible in a scripting environment. RAVEN support the generation of the probabilistic scenario control by supplying a wide range of probability and cumulative distribution functions and their inverse functions. 3. Provides a general environment to perform probability risk analysis for RELAP-7, RELAP-5 and any generic MOOSE based applications. The probabilistic analysis is performed by sampling the input space of the coupled code parameters and it is enhanced by using modern artificial intelligence algorithms that accelerate the identification of the areas of major risk (in the input parameter space). This environment also provides a graphical visualization capability to analyze the outcomes. Among other approaches, the classical Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling algorithms are available. For the acceleration of the convergence of the sampling methodologies, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian regression, and collocation stochastic polynomials chaos are implemented. The same methodologies here described could be used to solve optimization and uncertainties propagation problems using the RAVEN framework.

  16. Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

    2015-01-01

    Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

  17. Compendium on Risk Analysis Techniques

    DTIC Science & Technology

    The evolution of risk analysis in the materiel acquisition process is traced from the Secretary Packard memorandum to current AMC guidance. Risk ... analysis is defined and many of the existing techniques are described in light of this definition and their specific role in program management and

  18. Translational benchmark risk analysis

    PubMed Central

    Piegorsch, Walter W.

    2010-01-01

    Translational development – in the sense of translating a mature methodology from one area of application to another, evolving area – is discussed for the use of benchmark doses in quantitative risk assessment. Illustrations are presented with traditional applications of the benchmark paradigm in biology and toxicology, and also with risk endpoints that differ from traditional toxicological archetypes. It is seen that the benchmark approach can apply to a diverse spectrum of risk management settings. This suggests a promising future for this important risk-analytic tool. Extensions of the method to a wider variety of applications represent a significant opportunity for enhancing environmental, biomedical, industrial, and socio-economic risk assessments. PMID:20953283

  19. Object Oriented Risk Analysis Workshop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pons, M. Güell I.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2009-04-01

    In the framework of the RISET Project (Interfaculty Network of Support to Education and Technology) an educational tool for introducing risk analysis has been developed. This workshop enables to carry a group of students (role-play game) through a step-by-step process of risk identification and quantification. The aim is to assess risk in a characteristic alpine village regarding natural hazards (rockfall, snow avalanche, flooding…) and is oriented to affected objects such as buildings, infrastructures... The workshop contains the following steps: 1.- Planning of the study and definition of stakeholders 2.- Hazard identification 3.- Risk analysis 4.- Risk assessment 5.- Proposition of mitigation measures 6- Risk management and cost-benefit analysis. During the process, information related to past events and useful concepts are provided in order to bring up discussion and decision making. The Risk Matrix and other graphical tools allow having a visual representation of the risk level and help to prioritize counter measures. At the end of the workshop, there is the possibility to compare the results between different groups and print out a summarizing report. This approach provides a rapid and comprehensible risk evaluation. The workshop is accessible from the internet and will be used for educational purposes at bachelor and master level as well as for external persons dealing with risk analysis.

  20. The Components of Microbiological Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Serraino, Andrea

    2015-02-03

    The paper describes the process of risk analysis in a food safety perspective. The steps of risk analysis defined as a process consisting of three interconnected components (risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication) are analysed. The different components of the risk assessment, risk management and risk communication are further described.

  1. The Components of Microbiological Risk Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Serraino, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The paper describes the process of risk analysis in a food safety perspective. The steps of risk analysis defined as a process consisting of three interconnected components (risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication) are analysed. The different components of the risk assessment, risk management and risk communication are further described. PMID:27800384

  2. Risk analysis and management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, H. E.

    1990-01-01

    Present software development accomplishments are indicative of the emerging interest in and increasing efforts to provide risk assessment backbone tools in the manned spacecraft engineering community. There are indications that similar efforts are underway in the chemical processes industry and are probably being planned for other high risk ground base environments. It appears that complex flight systems intended for extended manned planetary exploration will drive this technology.

  3. Semantic policy and adversarial modeling for cyber threat identification and avoidance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeFrancesco, Anton; McQueary, Bruce

    2009-05-01

    Today's enterprise networks undergo a relentless barrage of attacks from foreign and domestic adversaries. These attacks may be perpetrated with little to no funding, but may wreck incalculable damage upon the enterprises security, network infrastructure, and services. As more services come online, systems that were once in isolation now provide information that may be combined dynamically with information from other systems to create new meaning on the fly. Security issues are compounded by the potential to aggregate individual pieces of information and infer knowledge at a higher classification than any of its constituent parts. To help alleviate these challenges, in this paper we introduce the notion of semantic policy and discuss how it's use is evolving from a robust approach to access control to preempting and combating attacks in the cyber domain, The introduction of semantic policy and adversarial modeling to network security aims to ask 'where is the network most vulnerable', 'how is the network being attacked', and 'why is the network being attacked'. The first aspect of our approach is integration of semantic policy into enterprise security to augment traditional network security with an overall awareness of policy access and violations. This awareness allows the semantic policy to look at the big picture - analyzing trends and identifying critical relations in system wide data access. The second aspect of our approach is to couple adversarial modeling with semantic policy to move beyond reactive security measures and into a proactive identification of system weaknesses and areas of vulnerability. By utilizing Bayesian-based methodologies, the enterprise wide meaning of data and semantic policy is applied to probability and high-level risk identification. This risk identification will help mitigate potential harm to enterprise networks by enabling resources to proactively isolate, lock-down, and secure systems that are most vulnerable.

  4. Budget Risk & Prioritization Analysis Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Carlos Castillo, Jerel Nelson

    2010-12-31

    BRPAtool performs the following: •Assists managers in making solid decisions on what scope/activities to reduce and/or eliminate, to meet constrained budgets, based on multiple risk factors •Enables analysis of different budget scenarios •Can analyze risks and cost for each activity based on technical, quantifiable risk criteria and management-determined risks •Real-time analysis •Enables managers to determine the multipliers and where funding is best applied •Promotes solid budget defense

  5. Using an Adversary Hearing to Evaluate the Effectiveness of a Military Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Richard L.; Butler, Jeanne

    2008-01-01

    This study describes the design and implementation of an adversary hearing used to evaluate professional development initiatives in a military environment. The adversary hearing model used in the evaluation was developed to meet the requirements of an environment that differs from other environments in which adversary hearings have been used. The…

  6. Authentication in Reprogramming of Sensor Networks for Mote Class Adversaries

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-01

    Authentication in Reprogramming of Sensor Networks for Mote Class Adversaries 1 Limin Wang Sandeep S. Kulkarni Software Engineering and Network...Systems Laboratory Department of Computer Science and Engineering Michigan State University East Lansing MI 48824 USA Abstract Reprogramming is an... Engineering ,Software Engineering and Network Systems Laboratory,East Lansing,MI,48824 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING

  7. Adversarial Growth in Telephone Counsellors: Psychological and Environmental Influences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Sullivan, Julian; Whelan, Thomas A.

    2011-01-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate the level of adversarial growth among telephone counsellors, and to examine the influence of psychological and environmental factors on growth. In particular, the effect of compassion fatigue, empathy, environmental support and calls per shift on posttraumatic growth was assessed. Sixty-four telephone…

  8. Risk analysis and meat hygiene.

    PubMed

    Hathaway, S C

    1993-12-01

    Meat hygiene consists of three major activities: post-mortem inspection; monitoring and surveillance for chemical hazards; and maintenance of good hygienic practice throughout all stages between slaughter and consumption of meat. Risk analysis is an applied science of increasing importance to these activities in the following areas: facilitating the distribution of pre-harvest, harvest and post-harvest inspection resources, proportional to the likelihood of public health and animal health hazards; establishing internationally-harmonized standards and specifications which are consistent and science-based; and improving the safety and wholesomeness of meat and meat products in local and international trade. Risk analysis, in one form or another, is well developed with respect to establishing standards and specifications for chemical hazards; methods for risk analysis of post-mortem meat inspection programmes are beginning to emerge. However, risk analysis of microbiological hazards in meat and meat products presents particular difficulties. All areas of application currently suffer from a lack of international agreement on risk assessment and risk management methodology.

  9. Source Anonymity in WSNs against Global Adversary Utilizing Low Transmission Rates with Delay Constraints

    PubMed Central

    Bushnag, Anas; Abuzneid, Abdelshakour; Mahmood, Ausif

    2016-01-01

    Wireless sensor networks (WSN) are deployed for many applications such as tracking and monitoring of endangered species, military applications, etc. which require anonymity of the origin, known as Source Location Privacy (SLP). The aim in SLP is to prevent unauthorized observers from tracing the source of a real event by analyzing the traffic in the network. Previous approaches to SLP such as Fortified Anonymous Communication Protocol (FACP) employ transmission of real or fake packets in every time slot, which is inefficient. To overcome this shortcoming, we developed three different techniques presented in this paper. Dummy Uniform Distribution (DUD), Dummy Adaptive Distribution (DAD) and Controlled Dummy Adaptive Distribution (CAD) were developed to overcome the anonymity problem against a global adversary (which has the capability of analyzing and monitoring the entire network). Most of the current techniques try to prevent the adversary from perceiving the location and time of the real event whereas our proposed techniques confuse the adversary about the existence of the real event by introducing low rate fake messages, which subsequently lead to location and time privacy. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed techniques provide reasonable delivery ratio, delay, and overhead of a real event's packets while keeping a high level of anonymity. Three different analysis models are conducted to verify the performance of our techniques. A visualization of the simulation data is performed to confirm anonymity. Further, neural network models are developed to ensure that the introduced techniques preserve SLP. Finally, a steganography model based on probability is implemented to prove the anonymity of the techniques. PMID:27355948

  10. Source Anonymity in WSNs against Global Adversary Utilizing Low Transmission Rates with Delay Constraints.

    PubMed

    Bushnag, Anas; Abuzneid, Abdelshakour; Mahmood, Ausif

    2016-06-27

    Wireless sensor networks (WSN) are deployed for many applications such as tracking and monitoring of endangered species, military applications, etc. which require anonymity of the origin, known as Source Location Privacy (SLP). The aim in SLP is to prevent unauthorized observers from tracing the source of a real event by analyzing the traffic in the network. Previous approaches to SLP such as Fortified Anonymous Communication Protocol (FACP) employ transmission of real or fake packets in every time slot, which is inefficient. To overcome this shortcoming, we developed three different techniques presented in this paper. Dummy Uniform Distribution (DUD), Dummy Adaptive Distribution (DAD) and Controlled Dummy Adaptive Distribution (CAD) were developed to overcome the anonymity problem against a global adversary (which has the capability of analyzing and monitoring the entire network). Most of the current techniques try to prevent the adversary from perceiving the location and time of the real event whereas our proposed techniques confuse the adversary about the existence of the real event by introducing low rate fake messages, which subsequently lead to location and time privacy. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed techniques provide reasonable delivery ratio, delay, and overhead of a real event's packets while keeping a high level of anonymity. Three different analysis models are conducted to verify the performance of our techniques. A visualization of the simulation data is performed to confirm anonymity. Further, neural network models are developed to ensure that the introduced techniques preserve SLP. Finally, a steganography model based on probability is implemented to prove the anonymity of the techniques.

  11. Have Adversary Missiles Become a Revolution in Military Affairs?

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-01

    United States last had relative parity with the missile forces of potential adversaries in the early 1990s.1 Since then, the gap between our air and...relative parity , the author means that missile defenses had a rough balance versus threat missiles. The exact results of the Patriot engagements have been...Revolution in Military Affairs? Feature This “relative parity ” statement is more than simply a function of offensive missile versus defensive

  12. Trust-based Anonymous Communication: Adversary Models and Routing Algorithms

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-10-01

    Trust-based Anonymous Communication: Adversary Models and Routing Algorithms Aaron Johnson ∗ Paul Syverson U.S. Naval Research Laboratory... anonymous communication, and in particular onion routing, although we expect the approach to apply more broadly. This paper provides two main...contributions. First, we present a novel model to consider the various security con- cerns for route selection in anonymity networks when users vary their trust

  13. Destabilization of Adversarial Organizations with Strategic Interventions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-06-01

    interface the other software tools, such as Caesar III, Pythia and Dynet . The analysis procedure of the unified system is described more in Ch. 9...expected. CMU SCS ISR CASOS Report -45- Target Network Dynet : Multi-agent simulation Dynet

  14. A Course of Instruction in Risk Analysis.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    Contents: Risk analysis course schedule; Problems and perspectives - an introduction to a course of instruction in risk analysis ; Analytical...techniques; Overview of the process of risk analysis ; Network analysis; RISCA: USALMC’s network analyzer program; Case studies in risk analysis ; Armored...vehicle launched bridge (AVLB); Micom-air defense missile warhead/fuze subsystem performance; Helicopter performance risk analysis ; High performance fuze

  15. Evaluating data distribution and drift vulnerabilities of machine learning algorithms in secure and adversarial environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Kevin; Corbin, George; Blowers, Misty

    2014-05-01

    Machine learning is continuing to gain popularity due to its ability to solve problems that are difficult to model using conventional computer programming logic. Much of the current and past work has focused on algorithm development, data processing, and optimization. Lately, a subset of research has emerged which explores issues related to security. This research is gaining traction as systems employing these methods are being applied to both secure and adversarial environments. One of machine learning's biggest benefits, its data-driven versus logic-driven approach, is also a weakness if the data on which the models rely are corrupted. Adversaries could maliciously influence systems which address drift and data distribution changes using re-training and online learning. Our work is focused on exploring the resilience of various machine learning algorithms to these data-driven attacks. In this paper, we present our initial findings using Monte Carlo simulations, and statistical analysis, to explore the maximal achievable shift to a classification model, as well as the required amount of control over the data.

  16. 78 FR 55772 - Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: “American Adversaries...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-11

    ... Copley in a Transatlantic World'' SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given of the following determinations... Adversaries: West and Copley in a Transatlantic World,'' imported from abroad for temporary exhibition...

  17. A Quantitative Model-Driven Comparison of Command Approaches in an Adversarial Process Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-06-01

    12TH ICCRTS “Adapting C2 to the 21st Century” A Quantitative Model-Driven Comparison of Command Approaches in an Adversarial Process Model Tracks...Lenahan2 identified metrics and techniques for adversarial C2 process modeling . We intend to further that work by developing a set of adversarial process ...Approaches in an Adversarial Process Model 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK

  18. Nano risk analysis: advancing the science for nanomaterials risk management.

    PubMed

    Shatkin, Jo Anne; Abbott, Linda Carolyn; Bradley, Ann E; Canady, Richard Alan; Guidotti, Tee; Kulinowski, Kristen M; Löfstedt, Ragnar E; Louis, Garrick; MacDonell, Margaret; Macdonell, Margaret; Maynard, Andrew D; Paoli, Greg; Sheremeta, Lorraine; Walker, Nigel; White, Ronald; Williams, Richard

    2010-11-01

    Scientists, activists, industry, and governments have raised concerns about health and environmental risks of nanoscale materials. The Society for Risk Analysis convened experts in September 2008 in Washington, DC to deliberate on issues relating to the unique attributes of nanoscale materials that raise novel concerns about health risks. This article reports on the overall themes and findings of the workshop, uncovering the underlying issues for each of these topics that become recurring themes. The attributes of nanoscale particles and other nanomaterials that present novel issues for risk analysis are evaluated in a risk analysis framework, identifying challenges and opportunities for risk analysts and others seeking to assess and manage the risks from emerging nanoscale materials and nanotechnologies. Workshop deliberations and recommendations for advancing the risk analysis and management of nanotechnologies are presented.

  19. Crime, Punishment, and Evolution in an Adversarial Game

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-13

    in which the unique equilibrium is inefficient, the one-shot Adversarial Game has multiple equilibria, one of which is efficient – Utopia . In effect...Fix δ, α, ε, and θ. (a) The set of pure Bayesian Nash Equilibria consists of: (i) symmetric profile “ Utopia ”, in which each actor chooses P ; (ii...symmetric profile “Dystopia”, in which each actor chooses V ; (iii) any asymmetric “Semi- Utopia ” profile, in which a fraction z of actors choose P , the

  20. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  1. 34 CFR 21.10 - Adversary adjudications covered by the Act.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Adversary adjudications covered by the Act. 21.10 Section 21.10 Education Office of the Secretary, Department of Education EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE Which... adversary adjudications under section 554 of title 5 of the United States Code. These include the...

  2. 34 CFR 21.10 - Adversary adjudications covered by the Act.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Adversary adjudications covered by the Act. 21.10 Section 21.10 Education Office of the Secretary, Department of Education EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE Which... adversary adjudications under section 554 of title 5 of the United States Code. These include the...

  3. 34 CFR 21.10 - Adversary adjudications covered by the Act.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Adversary adjudications covered by the Act. 21.10 Section 21.10 Education Office of the Secretary, Department of Education EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE Which... adversary adjudications under section 554 of title 5 of the United States Code. These include the...

  4. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant... sensitive personal information, the risk analysis must also contain operational recommendations for responding to the data breach. Each risk analysis, regardless of findings and operational...

  5. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant... sensitive personal information, the risk analysis must also contain operational recommendations for responding to the data breach. Each risk analysis, regardless of findings and operational...

  6. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant... sensitive personal information, the risk analysis must also contain operational recommendations for responding to the data breach. Each risk analysis, regardless of findings and operational...

  7. General Risk Analysis Methodological Implications to Explosives Risk Management Systems,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    An investigation sponsored by the National Science Foundation has produced as one of its results a survey and evaluation of risk analysis methodologies...This paper presents some implications of the survey to risk analysis and decision making for explosives hazards such as may ultimately be

  8. 'Non-compliance' as illness management: Hemodialysis patients' descriptions of adversarial patient-clinician interactions.

    PubMed

    Allen, Dawn; Wainwright, Megan; Hutchinson, Thomas

    2011-07-01

    With only 50% of patients in developed countries following the therapies prescribed for them by health professionals, "non-compliance" is commonly described as causing increases in morbidity, hospital visits, and overall healthcare costs. A plethora of non-compliance studies have failed to identify consistent predictors for, or solutions to, patients' non-compliance. Our longitudinal (September 2006-September 2008) participatory action research (PAR) focused on (a) understanding hemodialysis patients' perspectives on the challenges and solutions to living well with their chronic illness and (b) taking action to improve this population's quality of life. The study's participants included seven purposefully sampled patients in two hospital hemodialysis units in Canada. A small sample size was essential to accommodate our commitment to conducting a PAR study with this patient population whose unpredictable health status presented significant challenges to recruitment, follow-up interviews, and participation in data analysis. Data collection and analysis over 2 years included over 100 h of ethnographic field observation, bi-weekly unrecorded and 12 audio-recorded in-dialysis interviews, five video-recorded life-history interviews, two video-recorded focus groups, and five video-recorded dialysis treatment sessions. Thematic content analysis drew attention to patients' descriptions of adversarial interactions with health professionals. In these interactions, three points of tension were identified: (a) between whole person care and "assembly line" treatment, (b) between patient knowledge and medical expertise, and (c) between shared decision-making and "digging to find out". The article concludes that these adversarial relationships are indicative of a lack of trust stemming from health professionals' failure to interact with patients as whole persons with unique expertise on their bodies, their experience of illness, and their lives.

  9. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W.

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  10. Socioeconomic Considerations in Dam Safety Risk Analysis.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-06-01

    The analytical review and summary critique of literature related to risk analysis was conducted for the purpose of highlighting those ideas, concepts...alternative solutions. The critique of the philosophical and analytical bases of risk analysis as further directed toward the specific problem of dam...safety risk analysis . Dam safety is unique in that it represents an extreme situation characteristic of low probability/high consequence event

  11. Efficient BDD-Based Planning for Non-Deterministic, Fault-Tolerant, and Adversarial Domains

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-06-01

    operator ( ). If the power is on (that is, AS> is = >@.A ), they increase or decrease the position, otherwise they cause no position change...tolerant planning and adversarial planning. Fault tolerant plan- ning addresses domains where non-determinism is caused by rare errors. The current...for synthesizing fault tolerant plans. Adversarial planning considers situations where non-determinism is caused by uncontrollable, but known

  12. Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries: Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-01-01

    C O R P O R A T I O N Research Report Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for...Armed Regional Adversaries: Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...states with small nuclear arsenals. It examines prospects for neutralizing their nuclear capabilities via combinations of offensive and defensive

  13. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chueng, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a risk management approach that allows planners to quantify the risk and efficiency tradeoff in the presence of uncertainties, and to make forward-looking choices in the development and execution of the plan. Demonstrate a planning and risk analysis framework that tightly integrates mathematical optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to solve complex problems.

  14. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and...

  15. Risk Analysis and Uncertainty: Implications for Counselling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hassenzahl, David

    2004-01-01

    Over the past two decades, the risk analysis community has made substantial advances in understanding and describing uncertainty. Uncertainty is ubiquitous, complex, both quantitative and qualitative in nature, and often irreducible. Uncertainty thus creates a challenge when using risk analysis to evaluate the rationality of group and individual…

  16. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and...

  17. Carbon Fiber Risk Analysis. [conference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    The scope and status of the effort to assess the risks associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers from civil aircraft is presented. Vulnerability of electrical and electronic equipment to carbon fibers, dispersal of carbon fibers, effectiveness of filtering systems, impact of fiber induced failures, and risk methodology are among the topics covered.

  18. Resource allocation using risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T. F.; Eisenhawer, S. W.

    2003-01-01

    Allocating limited resources among competing priorities is an important problem in management. In this paper we describe an approach to resource allocation using risk as a metric. We call this approach the Logic-Evolved Decision (LED) approach because we use logic-models to generate an exhaustive set of competing options and to describe the often highly complex model used for evaluating the risk reduction achieved by different resource allocations among these options. The risk evaluation then proceeds using probabilistic or linguistic input data.

  19. Carbon Fiber Risk Analysis: Conclusions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    It was concluded that preliminary estimates indicate that the public risk due to accidental release of carbon fiber from air transport aircraft is small. It was also concluded that further work is required to increase confidence in these estimates.

  20. Bridging the two cultures of risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Jasanoff, S. )

    1993-04-01

    During the past 15 years, risk analysis has come of age as an interdisciplinary field of remarkable breadth, nurturing connections among fields as diverse as mathematics, biostatistics, toxicology, and engineering on one hand, and law, psychology, sociology, and economics on the other hand. In this editorial, the author addresses the question: What has the presence of social scientists in the network meant to the substantive development of the field of risk analysis The answers offered here discuss the substantial progress in bridging the two cultures of risk analysis. Emphasis is made of the continual need for monitoring risk analysis. Topics include: the micro-worlds of risk assessment; constraining assumptions; and exchange programs. 14 refs.

  1. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  2. Adversarial reasoning and resource allocation: the LG approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stilman, Boris; Yakhnis, Vladimir; Umanskiy, Oleg; Boyd, Ron

    2005-05-01

    Many existing automated tools purporting to model the intelligent enemy utilize a fixed battle plan for the enemy while using flexible decisions of human players for the friendly side. According to the Naval Studies Board, "It is an open secret and a point of distress ... that too much of the substantive content of such M&S has its origin in anecdote, ..., or a narrow construction tied to stereotypical current practices of 'doctrinally correct behavior.'" Clearly, such runs lack objectivity by being heavily skewed in favor of the friendly forces. Presently, the military branches employ a variety of game-based simulators and synthetic environments, with manual (i.e., user-based) decision-making, for training and other purposes. However, without an ability to automatically generate the best strategies, tactics, and COA, the games serve mostly to display the current situation rather than form a basis for automated decision-making and effective training. We solve the problem of adversarial reasoning as a gaming problem employing Linguistic Geometry (LG), a new type of game theory demonstrating significant increase in size in gaming problems solvable in real and near-real time. It appears to be a viable approach for solving such practical problems as mission planning and battle management. Essentially, LG may be structured into two layers: game construction and game solving. Game construction includes construction of a game called an LG hypergame based on a hierarchy of Abstract Board Games (ABG). Game solving includes resource allocation for constructing an advantageous initial game state and strategy generation to reach a desirable final game state in the course of the game.

  3. Dealing with Uncertainty in Chemical Risk Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-12-01

    0 * (OF 41 C-DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY IN - CHEMICAL RISK ANALYSIS THESIS David S. Clement Captain, USAF AFIT/GOR/MA/8CD-2 DT[C. ~ELECTEf 2 9 MAR 18...AFIT/GOR/MA/88D-2 DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY IN CHEMICAL RISK ANALYSIS THESIS David S. Clement Captain, USAF AFIT/GOR/MA/88D-2 DTIC V ~ 27989 Approved...for public release; distribution unlimited S . AFIT/GOR/KA/88D-2 DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY IN CHEMICAL RISK ANALYSIS THESIS Presented to the Faculty

  4. CUMULATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cumulative Risk Analysis for Organophosphorus Pesticides
    R. Woodrow Setzer, Jr. NHEERL MD-74, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711

    The US EPA has recently completed a risk assessment of the effects of exposure to 33 organophosphorous pesticides (OPs) through the diet, water, and resi...

  5. On the Concept and Definition of Terrorism Risk.

    PubMed

    Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2015-12-01

    In this article, we provide some reflections on how to define and understand the concept of terrorism risk in a professional risk assessment context. As a basis for this discussion we introduce a set of criteria that we believe should apply to any conceptualization of terrorism risk. These criteria are based on both criteria used in other areas of risk analysis and our experience with terrorism risk analysis. That is, these criteria offer our perspective. We show that several of the suggested perspectives and definitions have weaknesses in relation to these criteria. A main problem identified is the idea that terrorism risk can be conceptualized as a function of probability and consequence, not as a function of the interactions between adaptive individuals and organizations. We argue that perspectives based solely on probability and consequence should be used cautiously or not at all because they fail to reflect the essential features of the concept of terrorism risk, the threats and attacks, their consequences, and the uncertainties, all in the context of adaptation by the adversaries. These three elements should in our view constitute the main pillars of the terrorism risk concept. From this concept we can develop methods for assessing the risk by identifying a set of threats, attacks, and consequence measures associated with the possible outcome scenarios together with a description of the uncertainties and interactions between the adversaries.

  6. Cassini nuclear risk analysis with SPARRC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ha, Chuong T.; Deane, Nelson A.

    1998-01-01

    The nuclear risk analysis of the Cassini mission is one of the most comprehensive risk analyses ever conducted for a space nuclear mission. The complexity of postulated accident scenarios and source term definitions, from launch to Earth swingby, has necessitated an extensive series of analyses in order to provide best-estimates of potential consequence results and bounding uncertainty intervals. The Space Accident Radiological Release and Consequence (SPARRC) family of codes, developed by Lockheed Martin to analyze polydispersed source terms and a combination of different atmospheric transport patterns, have been used for the Cassini Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). By identifying dominant contributors, the nuclear risk of each mission segment is understood with a high level of confidence. This paper provides the overall analysis process and insights developed from the risk analysis.

  7. Risk analysis approach. [of carbon fiber release

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huston, R. J.

    1979-01-01

    The assessment of the carbon fiber hazard is outlined. Program objectives, requirements of the risk analysis, and elements associated with the physical phenomena of the accidental release are described.

  8. Fuzzy risk analysis for nuclear safeguards

    SciTech Connect

    Zardecki, A.

    1993-01-01

    Analysis of a safeguards system, based on the notion of fuzzy sets and linguistic variables, concerns such as complexity and inherent imprecision in estimating the possibility of loss or compromise. The automated risk analysis allows the risk to be determined for an entire system based on estimates for lowest level components and the component proportion. In addition, for each component (asset) the most effective combination of protection mechanisms against a given set of threats is determined. A distinction between bar and featured risk is made.

  9. RISK ANALYSIS, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE: GETTING MORE FROM OUR DATA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression are common statistical techniques used to analyze agronomic experimental data and determine significant differences among yields due to treatments or other experimental factors. Risk analysis provides an alternate and complimentary examination of the same...

  10. Relative risk regression analysis of epidemiologic data.

    PubMed

    Prentice, R L

    1985-11-01

    Relative risk regression methods are described. These methods provide a unified approach to a range of data analysis problems in environmental risk assessment and in the study of disease risk factors more generally. Relative risk regression methods are most readily viewed as an outgrowth of Cox's regression and life model. They can also be viewed as a regression generalization of more classical epidemiologic procedures, such as that due to Mantel and Haenszel. In the context of an epidemiologic cohort study, relative risk regression methods extend conventional survival data methods and binary response (e.g., logistic) regression models by taking explicit account of the time to disease occurrence while allowing arbitrary baseline disease rates, general censorship, and time-varying risk factors. This latter feature is particularly relevant to many environmental risk assessment problems wherein one wishes to relate disease rates at a particular point in time to aspects of a preceding risk factor history. Relative risk regression methods also adapt readily to time-matched case-control studies and to certain less standard designs. The uses of relative risk regression methods are illustrated and the state of development of these procedures is discussed. It is argued that asymptotic partial likelihood estimation techniques are now well developed in the important special case in which the disease rates of interest have interpretations as counting process intensity functions. Estimation of relative risks processes corresponding to disease rates falling outside this class has, however, received limited attention. The general area of relative risk regression model criticism has, as yet, not been thoroughly studied, though a number of statistical groups are studying such features as tests of fit, residuals, diagnostics and graphical procedures. Most such studies have been restricted to exponential form relative risks as have simulation studies of relative risk estimation

  11. Malaria's contribution to World War One - the unexpected adversary.

    PubMed

    Brabin, Bernard J

    2014-12-16

    Malaria in the First World War was an unexpected adversary. In 1914, the scientific community had access to new knowledge on transmission of malaria parasites and their control, but the military were unprepared, and underestimated the nature, magnitude and dispersion of this enemy. In summarizing available information for allied and axis military forces, this review contextualizes the challenge posed by malaria, because although data exist across historical, medical and military documents, descriptions are fragmented, often addressing context specific issues. Military malaria surveillance statistics have, therefore, been summarized for all theatres of the War, where available. These indicated that at least 1.5 million solders were infected, with case fatality ranging from 0.2 -5.0%. As more countries became engaged in the War, the problem grew in size, leading to major epidemics in Macedonia, Palestine, Mesopotamia and Italy. Trans-continental passages of parasites and human reservoirs of infection created ideal circumstances for parasite evolution. Details of these epidemics are reviewed, including major epidemics in England and Italy, which developed following home troop evacuations, and disruption of malaria control activities in Italy. Elsewhere, in sub-Saharan Africa many casualties resulted from high malaria exposure combined with minimal control efforts for soldiers considered semi-immune. Prevention activities eventually started but were initially poorly organized and dependent on local enthusiasm and initiative. Nets had to be designed for field use and were fundamental for personal protection. Multiple prevention approaches adopted in different settings and their relative utility are described. Clinical treatment primarily depended on quinine, although efficacy was poor as relapsing Plasmodium vivax and recrudescent Plasmodium falciparum infections were not distinguished and managed appropriately. Reasons for this are discussed and the clinical trial data

  12. Risk Analysis Training within the Army: Current Status, Future Trends,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    risk analysis . Since risk analysis training in the Army is...become involved in risk analysis training. He reviews all risk analysis -related training done in any course at the Center. Also provided is information...expected to use the training. Then the future trend in risk analysis training is presented. New course, course changes and hardware/software changes that will make risk analysis more palatable are

  13. Criminal Defectors Lead to the Emergence of Cooperation in an Experimental, Adversarial Game

    PubMed Central

    D'Orsogna, Maria R.; Kendall, Ryan; McBride, Michael; Short, Martin B.

    2013-01-01

    While the evolution of cooperation has been widely studied, little attention has been devoted to adversarial settings wherein one actor can directly harm another. Recent theoretical work addresses this issue, introducing an adversarial game in which the emergence of cooperation is heavily reliant on the presence of “Informants,” actors who defect at first-order by harming others, but who cooperate at second-order by punishing other defectors. We experimentally study this adversarial environment in the laboratory with human subjects to test whether Informants are indeed critical for the emergence of cooperation. We find in these experiments that, even more so than predicted by theory, Informants are crucial for the emergence and sustenance of a high cooperation state. A key lesson is that successfully reaching and maintaining a low defection society may require the cultivation of criminals who will also aid in the punishment of others. PMID:23630591

  14. Are Forensic Experts Already Biased before Adversarial Legal Parties Hire Them?

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    This survey of 206 forensic psychologists tested the “filtering” effects of preexisting expert attitudes in adversarial proceedings. Results confirmed the hypothesis that evaluator attitudes toward capital punishment influence willingness to accept capital case referrals from particular adversarial parties. Stronger death penalty opposition was associated with higher willingness to conduct evaluations for the defense and higher likelihood of rejecting referrals from all sources. Conversely, stronger support was associated with higher willingness to be involved in capital cases generally, regardless of referral source. The findings raise the specter of skewed evaluator involvement in capital evaluations, where evaluators willing to do capital casework may have stronger capital punishment support than evaluators who opt out, and evaluators with strong opposition may work selectively for the defense. The results may provide a partial explanation for the “allegiance effect” in adversarial legal settings such that preexisting attitudes may contribute to partisan participation through a self-selection process. PMID:27124416

  15. Starlink corn: a risk analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Bucchini, Luca; Goldman, Lynn R

    2002-01-01

    Modern biotechnology has dramatically increased our ability to alter the agronomic traits of plants. Among the novel traits that biotechnology has made available, an important group includes Bacillus thuringiensis-derived insect resistance. This technology has been applied to potatoes, cotton, and corn. Benefits of Bt crops, and biotechnology generally, can be realized only if risks are assessed and managed properly. The case of Starlink corn, a plant modified with a gene that encodes the Bt protein Cry9c, was a severe test of U.S. regulatory agencies. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency had restricted its use to animal feed due to concern about the potential for allergenicity. However, Starlink corn was later found throughout the human food supply, resulting in food recalls by the Food and Drug Administration and significant disruption of the food supply. Here we examine the regulatory history of Starlink, the assessment framework employed by the U.S. government, assumptions and information gaps, and the key elements of government efforts to manage the product. We explore the impacts on regulations, science, and society and conclude that only significant advances in our understanding of food allergies and improvements in monitoring and enforcement will avoid similar events in the future. Specifically, we need to develop a stronger fundamental basis for predicting allergic sensitization and reactions if novel proteins are to be introduced in this fashion. Mechanisms are needed to assure that worker and community aeroallergen risks are considered. Requirements are needed for the development of valid assays so that enforcement and post market surveillance activities can be conducted. PMID:11781159

  16. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  17. Teen mothers at midlife: the long shadow of adversarial family caregiving.

    PubMed

    Smithbattle, Lee; Leonard, Victoria

    2014-01-01

    Despite keen interest in teen mothers' outcomes, few studies have followed teen mothers prospectively or examined how outcomes are shaped by family relationships and practices over time. This multigenerational, hermeneutic study began 21 years ago when 16 families were interviewed after the teen's infant reached 8 to 10 months of age. Families were re-interviewed every 4 to 5 years. This article describes the 3 families who exemplified adversarial caregiving at the first study and how their relationships unfolded and shaped long-term outcomes. Findings alert clinicians to the importance of recognizing red flags and intervening early to interrupt adversarial caregiving.

  18. Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

    PubMed Central

    Bogen, Kenneth T.; Cullen, Alison C.; Frey, H. Christopher; Price, Paul S.

    2009-01-01

    This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts. PMID:19223660

  19. Confronting deep uncertainties in risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-10-01

    How can risk analysts help to improve policy and decision making when the correct probabilistic relation between alternative acts and their probable consequences is unknown? This practical challenge of risk management with model uncertainty arises in problems from preparing for climate change to managing emerging diseases to operating complex and hazardous facilities safely. We review constructive methods for robust and adaptive risk analysis under deep uncertainty. These methods are not yet as familiar to many risk analysts as older statistical and model-based methods, such as the paradigm of identifying a single "best-fitting" model and performing sensitivity analyses for its conclusions. They provide genuine breakthroughs for improving predictions and decisions when the correct model is highly uncertain. We demonstrate their potential by summarizing a variety of practical risk management applications.

  20. Common Methods for Security Risk Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    Workshops was particularly influential among Canadian tool-designers in the late 1980’s. These models generally favour a software tool solution simply...tools that have too small a market to justify extensive software development. Also, most of the risk management standards that came out at this...companies developing specialized risk analysis tools, such as the Vulcanizer project of DOMUS Software Inc. The latter incorporated fuzzy logic to

  1. A risk analysis model for radioactive wastes.

    PubMed

    Külahcı, Fatih

    2011-07-15

    Hazardous wastes affect natural environmental systems to a significant extend, and therefore, it is necessary to control their harm through risk analysis. Herein, an effective risk methodology is proposed by considering their uncertain behaviors on stochastic, statistical and probabilistic bases. The basic element is attachment of a convenient probability distribution function (pdf) to a given waste quality measurement sequence. In this paper, (40)K contaminant measurements are adapted for risk assessment application after derivation of necessary fundamental formulations. The spatial contaminant distribution of (40)K is presented in the forms of maps and three-dimensional surfaces.

  2. Using Frankencerts for Automated Adversarial Testing of Certificate Validation in SSL/TLS Implementations

    PubMed Central

    Brubaker, Chad; Jana, Suman; Ray, Baishakhi; Khurshid, Sarfraz; Shmatikov, Vitaly

    2014-01-01

    Modern network security rests on the Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) and Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocols. Distributed systems, mobile and desktop applications, embedded devices, and all of secure Web rely on SSL/TLS for protection against network attacks. This protection critically depends on whether SSL/TLS clients correctly validate X.509 certificates presented by servers during the SSL/TLS handshake protocol. We design, implement, and apply the first methodology for large-scale testing of certificate validation logic in SSL/TLS implementations. Our first ingredient is “frankencerts,” synthetic certificates that are randomly mutated from parts of real certificates and thus include unusual combinations of extensions and constraints. Our second ingredient is differential testing: if one SSL/TLS implementation accepts a certificate while another rejects the same certificate, we use the discrepancy as an oracle for finding flaws in individual implementations. Differential testing with frankencerts uncovered 208 discrepancies between popular SSL/TLS implementations such as OpenSSL, NSS, CyaSSL, GnuTLS, PolarSSL, MatrixSSL, etc. Many of them are caused by serious security vulnerabilities. For example, any server with a valid X.509 version 1 certificate can act as a rogue certificate authority and issue fake certificates for any domain, enabling man-in-the-middle attacks against MatrixSSL and GnuTLS. Several implementations also accept certificate authorities created by unauthorized issuers, as well as certificates not intended for server authentication. We also found serious vulnerabilities in how users are warned about certificate validation errors. When presented with an expired, self-signed certificate, NSS, Safari, and Chrome (on Linux) report that the certificate has expired—a low-risk, often ignored error—but not that the connection is insecure against a man-in-the-middle attack. These results demonstrate that automated adversarial testing with

  3. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A... § 417.107(b) for debris. A debris risk analysis must account for risk to populations on land,...

  4. The dissection of risk: a conceptual analysis.

    PubMed

    O'Byrne, Patrick

    2008-03-01

    Recently, patient safety has gained popularity in the nursing literature. While this topic is used extensively and has been analyzed thoroughly, some of the concepts upon which it relies, such as risk, have remained undertheorized. In fact, despite its considerable use, the term 'risk' has been largely assumed to be inherently neutral - meaning that its definition and discovery is seen as objective and impartial, and that risk avoidance is natural and logical. Such an oversight in evaluation requires that the concept of risk be thoroughly analyzed as it relates to nursing practices, particularly in relation to those practices surrounding bio-political nursing care, such as public health, as well as other more trendy nursing topics, such as patient safety. Thus, this paper applies the Evolutionary Model of concept analysis to explore 'risk', and expose it as one mechanism of maintaining prescribed/ proscribed social practices. Thereby, an analysis of risk results in the definitions and roles of the discipline and profession of nursing expanding from solely being dedicated to patient care, to include, in addition, its functions as a governmental body that unwittingly maintains hegemonic infrastructures.

  5. Managing Quality, Identity and Adversaries in Public Discourse with Machine Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brennan, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Automation can mitigate issues when scaling and managing quality and identity in public discourse on the web. Discourse needs to be curated and filtered. Anonymous speech has to be supported while handling adversaries. Reliance on human curators or analysts does not scale and content can be missed. These scaling and management issues include the…

  6. Constructing Learning: Adversarial and Collaborative Working in the British Construction Industry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bishop, Dan; Felstead, Alan; Fuller, Alison; Jewson, Nick; Unwin, Lorna; Kakavelakis, Konstantinos

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines two competing systems of work organisation in the British construction industry and their consequences for learning. Under the traditional "adversarial" system, conflict, hostility and litigation between contractors are commonplace. Such a climate actively militates against collective learning and knowledge sharing between…

  7. Fostering Non-Adversarial Family/School Relationships through the Evaluation Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weissmann, Lenore R.; Harding, Carol Gibb

    Traditionally, when an "outside evaluation" concerning a child's problems in school is sought by families, schools anticipate that the results will be reported in the context of an adversarial relationship, and their experiences have often borne out this expectation. A multidisciplinary Learning Evaluation Center (LEC) based within a university…

  8. Mediation in Child Protection Cases: An Alternative to the Adversary System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmer, Sally E.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses two concerns regarding adverse effects of increased litigation in child protection cases: (1) fallout from the adversarial process on agencies' work with families; and (2) dissonance between the approaches of social workers and lawyers to decision-making about families. Recommends mediation to prevent less serious cases from going to…

  9. GalaxyGAN: Generative Adversarial Networks for recovery of galaxy features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schawinski, Kevin; Zhang, Ce; Zhang, Hantian; Fowler, Lucas; Krishnan Santhanam, Gokula

    2017-02-01

    GalaxyGAN uses Generative Adversarial Networks to reliably recover features in images of galaxies. The package uses machine learning to train on higher quality data and learns to recover detailed features such as galaxy morphology by effectively building priors. This method opens up the possibility of recovering more information from existing and future imaging data.

  10. Research Directions in Remote Detection of Covert Tactical Adversarial Intent of Individuals in Asymmetric Operations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-07-01

    emotions related to adversarial intent take place partially involuntarily through facial muscles. Other physiological actions such as speech...movement tracking, surveillance activity, facial expression, emotion , phenotypic patterns, and body language. Imagers provide data for extracting...posture, gait dynamics, facial recognition , carrying of backpacks, and unnatural frame proportions. ● Gas chromatography: Active collection of

  11. Risk factors analysis of consecutive exotropia

    PubMed Central

    Gong, Qianwen; Wei, Hong; Zhou, Xu; Li, Ziyuan; Liu, Longqian

    2016-01-01

    Abstract To evaluate clinical factors associated with the onset of consecutive exotropia (XT) following esotropia surgery. By a retrospective nested case-control design, we reviewed the medical records of 193 patients who had undergone initial esotropia surgery between 2008 and 2015, and had follow-up longer than 6 months. The probable risk factors were evaluated between groups 1 (consecutive XT) and 2 (non-consecutive exotropia). Pearson chi-square test and Mann–Whitney U test were used for univariate analysis, and conditional logistic regression model was applied for exploring the potential risk factors of consecutive XT. Consecutive exotropia occurred in 23 (11.9%) of 193 patients. Patients who had undergone large bilateral medial rectus recession (BMR) (P = 0.017) had a high risk of developing consecutive XT. Oblique dysfunction (P = 0.001), adduction limitation (P = 0.000) were associated with a high risk of consecutive XT, which was confirmed in the conditional logistic regression analysis. In addition, large amount of BMR (6 mm or more) was associated with higher incidence of adduction limitation (P = 0.045). The surgical methods and preoperative factors did not appear to influence the risk of developing consecutive XT (P > 0.05). The amount of surgery could be optimized to reduce the risk of consecutive XT. The presence of oblique overaction and postoperative adduction limitation may be associated with a high risk of consecutive XT, which may require close supervision, and/or even earlier operation intervention. PMID:27977611

  12. Advanced Risk Analysis for High-Performing Organizations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-01

    using traditional risk analysis techniques. Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP) is one technique that high performers can use to identify and mitigate the risks arising from operational complexity....The operational environment for many types of organizations is changing. Changes in operational environments are driving the need for advanced risk ... analysis techniques. Many types of risk prevalent in today’s operational environments (e.g., event risks, inherited risk) are not readily identified

  13. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  14. Risk Analysis of the Supply-Handling Conveyor System.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    The report documents the risk analysis that was performed on a supply-handling conveyor system. The risk analysis was done to quantify the risks...involved for project development in addition to compliance with the draft AMC regulation on risk analysis . The conveyor system is in the final phase of

  15. Risk analysis for confined space entries: Critical analysis of four tools applied to three risk scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burlet-Vienney, Damien; Chinniah, Yuvin; Bahloul, Ali; Roberge, Brigitte

    2016-01-01

    Investigation reports of fatal confined space accidents nearly always point to a problem of identifying or underestimating risks. This paper compares 4 different risk analysis tools developed for confined spaces by applying them to 3 hazardous scenarios. The tools were namely 1. a checklist without risk estimation (Tool A), 2. a checklist with a risk scale (Tool B), 3. a risk calculation without a formal hazard identification stage (Tool C), and 4. a questionnaire followed by a risk matrix (Tool D). Each tool's structure and practical application were studied. Tools A and B gave crude results comparable to those of more analytic tools in less time. Their main limitations were lack of contextual information for the identified hazards and greater dependency on the user's expertise and ability to tackle hazards of different nature. Tools C and D utilized more systematic approaches than tools A and B by supporting risk reduction based on the description of the risk factors. Tool D is distinctive because of 1. its comprehensive structure with respect to the steps suggested in risk management, 2. its dynamic approach to hazard identification, and 3. its use of data resulting from the risk analysis.

  16. Tsunamis: Global Exposure and Local Risk Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Glimsdal, S.; Horspool, N.; Griffin, J.; Davies, G.; Frauenfelder, R.

    2014-12-01

    The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to a better understanding of the likelihood of tsunami occurrence and potential tsunami inundation, and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) was one direct result of this event. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN-ISDR) adopted HFA in January 2005 in order to reduce disaster risk. As an instrument to compare the risk due to different natural hazards, an integrated worldwide study was implemented and published in several Global Assessment Reports (GAR) by UN-ISDR. The results of the global earthquake induced tsunami hazard and exposure analysis for a return period of 500 years are presented. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods (PTHA) are used. The resulting hazard levels for both methods are compared quantitatively for selected areas. The comparison demonstrates that the analysis is rather rough, which is expected for a study aiming at average trends on a country level across the globe. It is shown that populous Asian countries account for the largest absolute number of people living in tsunami prone areas, more than 50% of the total exposed people live in Japan. Smaller nations like Macao and the Maldives are among the most exposed by population count. Exposed nuclear power plants are limited to Japan, China, India, Taiwan, and USA. On the contrary, a local tsunami vulnerability and risk analysis applies information on population, building types, infrastructure, inundation, flow depth for a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period combined with empirical data on tsunami damages and mortality. Results and validation of a GIS tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment model are presented. The GIS model is adapted for optimal use of data available for each study. Finally, the importance of including landslide sources in the tsunami analysis is also discussed.

  17. Risk-driven security testing using risk analysis with threat modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Palanivel, Maragathavalli; Selvadurai, Kanmani

    2014-01-01

    Security testing is a process of determining risks present in the system states and protects them from vulnerabilities. But security testing does not provide due importance to threat modeling and risk analysis simultaneously that affects confidentiality and integrity of the system. Risk analysis includes identification, evaluation and assessment of risks. Threat modeling approach is identifying threats associated with the system. Risk-driven security testing uses risk analysis results in test case identification, selection and assessment to prioritize and optimize the testing process. Threat modeling approach, STRIDE is generally used to identify both technical and non-technical threats present in the system. Thus, a security testing mechanism based on risk analysis results using STRIDE approach has been proposed for identifying highly risk states. Risk metrics considered for testing includes risk impact, risk possibility and risk threshold. Risk threshold value is directly proportional to risk impact and risk possibility. Risk-driven security testing results in reduced test suite which in turn reduces test case selection time. Risk analysis optimizes the test case selection and execution process. For experimentation, the system models namely LMS, ATM, OBS, OSS and MTRS are considered. The performance of proposed system is analyzed using Test Suite Reduction Rate (TSRR) and FSM coverage. TSRR varies from 13.16 to 21.43% whereas FSM coverage is achieved up to 91.49%. The results show that the proposed method combining risk analysis with threat modeling identifies states with high risks to improve the testing efficiency.

  18. Low-thrust mission risk analysis.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yen, C. L.; Smith, D. B.

    1973-01-01

    A computerized multi-stage failure process simulation procedure is used to evaluate the risk in a solar electric space mission. The procedure uses currently available thrust-subsystem reliability data and performs approximate simulations of the thrust subsystem burn operation, the system failure processes, and the retargetting operations. The application of the method is used to assess the risks in carrying out a 1980 rendezvous mission to Comet Encke. Analysis of the results and evaluation of the effects of various risk factors on the mission show that system component failure rates is the limiting factor in attaining a high mission reliability. But it is also shown that a well-designed trajectory and system operation mode can be used effectively to partially compensate for unreliable thruster performance.

  19. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T; Rasmuson, D M

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  20. Risk and value analysis of SETI.

    PubMed

    Billingham, J

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  1. Risk and value analysis of SETI

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billingham, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

  2. Fire Risk Analysis for Armenian NPP Confinement

    SciTech Connect

    Poghosyan, Shahen; Malkhasyan, Albert; Bznuni, Surik; Amirjanyan, Armen

    2006-07-01

    Major fire occurred at Armenian NPP (ANPP) in October 1982 showed that fire-induced initiating events (IE) can have dominant contribution in overall risk of core damage. Probabilistic Safety Assessment study for fire-induced initiating events for ANPP was initiated in 2002. Analysis was performed for compartments fires in which could result in failure of components which are necessary for reactor cold shutdown. Analysis shows that main risk from fire at ANPP is conditioned by fire in cable tunnels 61-64. Meanwhile fire in confinement compartments don't have significant contribution to overall risk of core damage. The exception is so called 'confinement valves compartment' (room no.A-013/2) fire (more than 7.5% of CDF) in which fire could result in the loss of coolant accident with unavailability of primary makeup system, which directly leads to core damage. Detailed analysis of this problem that is common for typical WWER-440/230 reactors with no hermetic MCPs and recommendations for solution are presented in this paper. (authors)

  3. The development of human female competition: allies and adversaries

    PubMed Central

    Benenson, Joyce F.

    2013-01-01

    Throughout their lives, women provide for their own and their children's and grandchildren's needs and thus must minimize their risk of incurring physical harm. Alliances with individuals who will assist them in attaining these goals increase their probability of survival and reproductive success. High status in the community enhances access to physical resources and valuable allies. Kin, a mate, and affines share a mother's genetic interests, whereas unrelated women constitute primary competitors. From early childhood onwards, girls compete using strategies that minimize the risk of retaliation and reduce the strength of other girls. Girls’ competitive strategies include avoiding direct interference with another girl's goals, disguising competition, competing overtly only from a position of high status in the community, enforcing equality within the female community and socially excluding other girls. PMID:24167309

  4. Improving causal inferences in risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2013-10-01

    Recent headlines and scientific articles projecting significant human health benefits from changes in exposures too often depend on unvalidated subjective expert judgments and modeling assumptions, especially about the causal interpretation of statistical associations. Some of these assessments are demonstrably biased toward false positives and inflated effects estimates. More objective, data-driven methods of causal analysis are available to risk analysts. These can help to reduce bias and increase the credibility and realism of health effects risk assessments and causal claims. For example, quasi-experimental designs and analysis allow alternative (noncausal) explanations for associations to be tested, and refuted if appropriate. Panel data studies examine empirical relations between changes in hypothesized causes and effects. Intervention and change-point analyses identify effects (e.g., significant changes in health effects time series) and estimate their sizes. Granger causality tests, conditional independence tests, and counterfactual causality models test whether a hypothesized cause helps to predict its presumed effects, and quantify exposure-specific contributions to response rates in differently exposed groups, even in the presence of confounders. Causal graph models let causal mechanistic hypotheses be tested and refined using biomarker data. These methods can potentially revolutionize the study of exposure-induced health effects, helping to overcome pervasive false-positive biases and move the health risk assessment scientific community toward more accurate assessments of the impacts of exposures and interventions on public health.

  5. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  6. On Modeling of Adversary Behavior and Defense for Survivability of Military MANET Applications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-01-01

    Research Laboratory Computational and Information Sciences Directorate jinhee.cho@us.army.mil Abstract— In this paper we develop a methodology...adversary modeling, defense behavior modeling, survivability. 1. INTRODUCTION In this paper we address the survivability issue of a military mobile ad...defenders, the actions being the attack/defense strategies identified in the paper , and the payoff for each outcome being related to system survivability

  7. Robust Planning in Domains with Stochastic Outcomes, Adversaries, and Partial Observability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-12-01

    unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Keywords: Planning , Game Theory , Markov Decision Processes, Extensive-form... Theory with Economic Applications, volume 3, chapter 45, pages 1723–1759. Elsevier, September 2002. 3.1.1 Daniel S. Weld. Recent advances in AI planning ...Robust Planning in Domains with Stochastic Outcomes, Adversaries, and Partial Observability Hugh Brendan McMahan CMU-CS-06-166 December 2006 School

  8. Cooperation and punishment in an adversarial game: How defectors pave the way to a peaceful society

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Short, M. B.; Brantingham, P. J.; D'Orsogna, M. R.

    2010-12-01

    The evolution of human cooperation has been the subject of much research, especially within the framework of evolutionary public goods games, where several mechanisms have been proposed to account for persistent cooperation. Yet, in addressing this issue, little attention has been given to games of a more adversarial nature, in which defecting players, rather than simply free riding, actively seek to harm others. Here, we develop an adversarial evolutionary game using the specific example of criminal activity, recasting the familiar public goods strategies of punishers, cooperators, and defectors in this light. We then introduce a strategy—the informant—with no clear analog in public goods games and show that individuals employing this strategy are a key to the emergence of systems where cooperation dominates. We also find that a defection-dominated regime may be transitioned to one that is cooperation-dominated by converting an optimal number of players into informants. We discuss these findings, the role of informants, and possible intervention strategies in extreme adversarial societies, such as those marred by wars and insurgencies.

  9. Using detection and deterrence to reduce insider risk

    SciTech Connect

    Eggers, R F; Carlson, R L; Udell, C J

    1988-06-01

    This paper addresses a new concept of interaction between adversary detection and deterrence. It provides an initial evaluation of the effects of these variables on the risk of theft of special nuclear material by an insider adversary and can be extended to the sabotage threat. A steady-state risk equation is used. Exercises with this equation show that deterrence, resulting from the prospect of detection, has a greater ability to reduce the risk than the detection exercise itself. This is true for all cases except those in which the probability of detection is 1. Cases were developed for three different types of adversaries that can be distinguished from one another by the level of detection they are willing to tolerate before they are deterred from attempting a theft. By considering the effects of detection, deterrence, and adversary type, the ground work is laid for designing cost-effective insider threat-protection systems. 2 refs., 6 figs.

  10. Application of Risk Analysis: Response from a Systems Division,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    A review of theoretical literature reveals that most technical aspects of risk analysis have become a reasonably well-defined process with many... risk analysis in order to enhance its application. Also needed are better tools to enhance use of both subjective judgment and group decision processes...hope that it would lead to increased application of risk analysis in the acquisition process.

  11. FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, Robin K.

    1976-01-01

    A program for seismic risk analysis is described which combines generality of application, efficiency and accuracy of operation, and the advantage of small storage requirements. The theoretical basis for the program is first reviewed, and the computational algorithms used to apply this theory are described. The information required for running the program is listed. Published attenuation functions describing the variation with earthquake magnitude and distance of expected values for various ground motion parameters are summarized for reference by the program user. Finally, suggestions for use of the program are made, an example problem is described (along with example problem input and output) and the program is listed.

  12. Risk Analysis Related to Quality Management Principles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vykydal, David; Halfarová, Petra; Nenadál, Jaroslav; Plura, Jiří; Hekelová, Edita

    2012-12-01

    Efficient and effective implementation of quality management principles asks for a responsible approach from top managers' perspectives. A study of the current state of affairs in Czech organizations discovers a lot of shortcomings in this field that can be changed to vary managerial risks. The article identifies and analyses some of them and gives short guidance for appropriate treatment. Text of the article reflects the authors' experience as well as knowledge obtained from the systematic analysis of industrial companies' environments.

  13. Topographic Avalanche Risk: DEM Sensitivity Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nazarkulova, Ainura; Strobl, Josef

    2015-04-01

    GIS-based models are frequently used to assess the risk and trigger probabilities of (snow) avalanche releases, based on parameters and geomorphometric derivatives like elevation, exposure, slope, proximity to ridges and local relief energy. Numerous models, and model-based specific applications and project results have been published based on a variety of approaches and parametrizations as well as calibrations. Digital Elevation Models (DEM) come with many different resolution (scale) and quality (accuracy) properties, some of these resulting from sensor characteristics and DEM generation algorithms, others from different DEM processing workflows and analysis strategies. This paper explores the impact of using different types and characteristics of DEMs for avalanche risk modeling approaches, and aims at establishing a framework for assessing the uncertainty of results. The research question is derived from simply demonstrating the differences in release risk areas and intensities by applying identical models to DEMs with different properties, and then extending this into a broader sensitivity analysis. For the quantification and calibration of uncertainty parameters different metrics are established, based on simple value ranges, probabilities, as well as fuzzy expressions and fractal metrics. As a specific approach the work on DEM resolution-dependent 'slope spectra' is being considered and linked with the specific application of geomorphometry-base risk assessment. For the purpose of this study focusing on DEM characteristics, factors like land cover, meteorological recordings and snowpack structure and transformation are kept constant, i.e. not considered explicitly. Key aims of the research presented here are the development of a multi-resolution and multi-scale framework supporting the consistent combination of large area basic risk assessment with local mitigation-oriented studies, and the transferability of the latter into areas without availability of

  14. Autonomous and cooperative multi-UAV guidance in adversarial environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zengin, Ugur

    The research presented in this dissertation is aimed at developing rule-based autonomous and cooperative guidance strategies for UAVs to perform missions such as path planning, target tracking and rendezvous while reducing their risk/threat exposure level, and avoiding threats and/or obstacles by utilizing measurement information provided by sensors. First, a mathematical formulation is developed to represent the area of operation that contains various types of threats, obstacles, and restricted areas, in a single framework. Once constructed, there will be no need to distinguish between threats, obstacles and restricted areas as the framework already contains the information on what needs to be avoided and the level of penalty for a given position in the area. This framework provides the mathematical foundation for the guidance strategies to make intelligent decisions during the execution of the mission and also provides scalar metrics to assess the performance of a guidance strategy in a given mission. The autonomous guidance strategies are developed by using a rule-based expert system approach with the requirements of completing assigned mission or task, avoiding obstacle/restricted-areas, minimizing threat exposure level, considering the dynamic and communication constraints of the UAVs and avoiding collision. All these requirements and objectives are quantified and prioritized to facilitate the development of guidance algorithms that can be executed in real-time. The strategies consist of a set of "decision states", which contain rules to determine how the host UAV should move by generating heading and speed signals. Cooperation of multiple UAVs is modeled by minimizing a cost function, which is constructed based on the level of threat exposure for each UAV and distance of each UAV relative to the target. This improves the performance of the system in the terms of increasing the total area of coverage of the sensors onboard the UAVs, increasing the flexibility

  15. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk...

  16. Adversary phase change detection using SOMs and text data.

    SciTech Connect

    Speed, Ann Elizabeth; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Warrender, Christina E.

    2010-05-01

    In this work, we developed a self-organizing map (SOM) technique for using web-based text analysis to forecast when a group is undergoing a phase change. By 'phase change', we mean that an organization has fundamentally shifted attitudes or behaviors. For instance, when ice melts into water, the characteristics of the substance change. A formerly peaceful group may suddenly adopt violence, or a violent organization may unexpectedly agree to a ceasefire. SOM techniques were used to analyze text obtained from organization postings on the world-wide web. Results suggest it may be possible to forecast phase changes, and determine if an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.

  17. [Beliefs about the adversary, political violence and peace processes].

    PubMed

    Borja, Henry; Barreto, Idaly; Alzate, Mónica; Sabucedo, José Manuel; López López, Wilson

    2009-11-01

    The aim of this study is to test in a real political context whether or not a change in the beliefs which were fueling the political violence in question is required during the advent of a peace process. Two hypothesis are considered: a) in the case of these beliefs not being modified, there will be difficulties to reach an atmosphere of trust between both parts and the process will fail, and b) if this happens, the groups will develop more extreme beliefs against the opponent. The results obtained through a textual analysis support both hypotheses. During the failure of the peace process, neither the strategy of the delegitimization of the opponent nor the identities in conflict were modified. Consequently, when the process failed, responsibility for this failure was attributed to the opponent, and, at the same time, delegitimization against the opponent intensified.

  18. Concentration of Risk Model (CORM) Verification and Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-15

    Mental Health and using data from a repository at the University of Michigan, had attempted to identify soldiers at higher-than-average risk of suicide ...TRAC-M-TR-14-023 15 June 2014 Concentration of Risk Model (CORM) Verification and Analysis TRADOC Analysis Center - Monterey 700 Dyer Road Monterey...TRAC-M-TR-14-023 15 June 2014 Concentration of Risk Model (CORM) Verification and Analysis Edward M. Masotti Sam Buttrey TRADOC Analysis Center

  19. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome.

  20. Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

    PubMed

    Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions.

  1. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  2. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  3. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    SciTech Connect

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  4. Game Theoretic Evaluation of Threat Detection Problems-The Central Role of the Adversary

    SciTech Connect

    Heasler, Patrick G.; Wood, Thomas W.; Reichmuth, Barbara A.

    2007-01-01

    A wide variety of security problems hinge on the detection of threats and discrimination of threats from innocuous objects. The theory that frames these problems is common among medical diagnostics, radar and sonar imaging, and detection of radiological, chemical, and biological agents. In many of these problems, the nature of the threat is subject to control by a malicious adversary, and the choice of a reference (or "design basis") threat is a very diffcult, and often intractable, aspect of the problem. It is this class of problems that this report considers.

  5. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  6. Evaluating the Risks of Clinical Research: Direct Comparative Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S.; Wendler, David

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Objectives: Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. Methods: This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Results: Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Conclusions: Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about

  7. Environmental risk analysis for indirect coal liquefaction

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.; Suter, G.W. II; Baes, C.F. III; Bartell, S.M.; Cavendish, M.G.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.; Rosen, A.E.

    1985-01-01

    This report presents an analysis of the risks to fish, water quality (due to noxious algal blooms), crops, forests, and wildlife of two technologies for the indirect liquefaction of coal: Lurgi and Koppers-Totzek gasification of coal for Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. A variety of analytical techniques were used to make maximum use of the available data to consider effects of effluents on different levels of ecological organization. The most significant toxicants to fish were found to be ammonia, cadmium, and acid gases. An analysis of whole-effluent toxicity indicated that the Lurgi effluent is more acutely toxic than the Koppers-Totzek effluent. Six effluent components appear to pose a potential threat of blue-green algal blooms, primarily because of their effects on higher trophic levels. The most important atmospheric emissions with respect to crops, forests, and wildlife were found to be the conventional combustion products SO/sub 2/ and NO/sub 2/. Of the materials deposited on the soil, arsenic, cadmium, and nickel appear of greatest concern for phytotoxicity. 147 references, 5 figures, 41 tables.

  8. Multiobjective Risk Partitioning: An Application to Dam Safety Risk Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-04-01

    expectation distorts, and a’most eliminates, the distinctive features of many viable alternative policy options that could lead to the reduction of the risk...height of the dam) from 20 to 30 million dollirs would contribute to a negligible reduction of 0.1 units of conventional (unconditional) expected social...results could be easily influenced by either a change in the return period of the PMH or by the choice of the distribution. Therefore, it is

  9. The Use and Abuse of Risk Analysis in Policy Debate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herbeck, Dale A.; Katsulas, John P.

    The best check on the preposterous claims of crisis rhetoric is an appreciation of the nature of risk analysis and how it functions in argumentation. The use of risk analysis is common in policy debate. While the stock issues paradigm focused the debate exclusively on the affirmative case, the advent of policy systems analysis has transformed…

  10. Risk Analysis from a Top-Down Perspective

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-07-15

    and focused studies in critical areas. A variety of analyses, such as a localized version of the bottom up risk analysis approach and sensitivity...analysis, focus on these open ended cases to resolve them. Unresolvable decision conflicts include value judgments which risk analysis cannot solve

  11. Technical Risk Analysis - Exploiting the Power of MBSE

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-11-01

    UNCLASSIFIED DSTO-GD-0734 18. Technical Risk Analysis – Exploiting the Power of MBSE – Despina Tramoundanis1, Wayne Power1 and Daniel Spencer2...Functional Risk Analysis (FRA) conducted within a Model Based Systems Engineering ( MBSE ) environment. FRA is a rigorous technique used to explore potential...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Technical Risk Analysis â Exploiting the Power of MBSE â 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6

  12. RETHINKING THE ROLE OF SMALL-GROUP COLLABORATORS AND ADVERSARIES IN THE LONDON KLEINIAN DEVELOPMENT (1914-1968).

    PubMed

    Aguayo, Joseph; Regeczkey, Agnes

    2016-07-01

    The authors historically situate the London Kleinian development in terms of the small-group collaborations and adversaries that arose during the course of Melanie Klein's career. Some collaborations later became personally adversarial (e.g., those Klein had with Glover and Schmideberg); other adversarial relationships forever remained that way (with A. Freud); while still other long-term collaborations became theoretically contentious (such as with Winnicott and Heimann). After the Controversial Discussions in 1944, Klein marginalized one group of supporters (Heimann, Winnicott, and Riviere) in favor of another group (Rosenfeld, Segal, and Bion). After Klein's death in 1960, Bion maintained loyalty to Klein's ideas while quietly distancing his work from the London Klein group, immigrating to the United States in 1968.

  13. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  14. The cornucopia of meaningful leads: Applying deep adversarial autoencoders for new molecule development in oncology.

    PubMed

    Kadurin, Artur; Aliper, Alexander; Kazennov, Andrey; Mamoshina, Polina; Vanhaelen, Quentin; Khrabrov, Kuzma; Zhavoronkov, Alex

    2016-12-22

    Recent advances in deep learning and specifically in generative adversarial networks have demonstrated surprising results in generating new images and videos upon request even using natural language as input. In this paper we present the first application of generative adversarial autoencoders (AAE) for generating novel molecular fingerprints with a defined set of parameters. We developed a 7-layer AAE architecture with the latent middle layer serving as a discriminator. As an input and output the AAE uses a vector of binary fingerprints and concentration of the molecule. In the latent layer we also introduced a neuron responsible for growth inhibition percentage, which when negative indicates the reduction in the number of tumor cells after the treatment. To train the AAE we used the NCI-60 cell line assay data for 6252 compounds profiled on MCF-7 cell line. The output of the AAE was used to screen 72 million compounds in PubChem and select candidate molecules with potential anti-cancer properties. This approach is a proof of concept of an artificially-intelligent drug discovery engine, where AAEs are used to generate new molecular fingerprints with the desired molecular properties.

  15. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    PubMed

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  16. Risk analysis for Arctic offshore operations

    SciTech Connect

    Slomski, S.; Vivatrat, V.

    1986-04-01

    Offshore exploration for hydrocarbons is being conducted in the near-shore regions of the Beaufort Sea. This activity is expected to be intensified and expanded into the deeper portions of the Beaufort, as well as into the Chukchi Sea. The ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea are very variable, particularly in the deeper water regions. This variability greatly influences the probability of success or failure of an offshore operation. For example, a summer exploratory program conducted from a floating drilling unit may require a period of 60 to 100 days on station. The success of such a program depends on: (a) the time when the winter ice conditions deteriorate sufficiently for the drilling unit to move on station; (b) the number of summer invasions by the arctic ice pack, forcing the drilling unit to abandon station; (c) the rate at which first-year ice grows to the ice thickness limit of the supporting icebreakers; and (d) the extent of arctic pack expansion during the fall and early winter. In general, the ice conditions are so variable that, even with good planning, the change of failure of an offshore operation will not be negligible. Contingency planning for such events is therefore necessary. This paper presents a risk analysis procedure which can greatly benefit the planning of an offshore operation. A floating drilling program and a towing and installation operation for a fixed structure are considered to illustrate the procedure.

  17. Probabilistic risk analysis of groundwater remediation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolster, D.; Barahona, M.; Dentz, M.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Trinchero, P.; Valhondo, C.; Tartakovsky, D. M.

    2009-06-01

    Heterogeneity of subsurface environments and insufficient site characterization are some of the reasons why decisions about groundwater exploitation and remediation have to be made under uncertainty. A typical decision maker chooses between several alternative remediation strategies by balancing their respective costs with the probability of their success or failure. We conduct a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to determine the likelihood of the success of a permeable reactive barrier, one of the leading approaches to groundwater remediation. While PRA is used extensively in many engineering fields, its applications in hydrogeology are scarce. This is because rigorous PRA requires one to quantify structural and parametric uncertainties inherent in predictions of subsurface flow and transport. We demonstrate how PRA can facilitate a comprehensive uncertainty quantification for complex subsurface phenomena by identifying key transport processes contributing to a barrier's failure, each of which is amenable to uncertainty analysis. Probability of failure of a remediation strategy is computed by combining independent and conditional probabilities of failure of each process. Individual probabilities can be evaluated either analytically or numerically or, barring both, can be inferred from expert opinion.

  18. Risk analysis of colorectal cancer incidence by gene expression analysis

    PubMed Central

    Shangkuan, Wei-Chuan; Lin, Hung-Che; Chang, Yu-Tien; Jian, Chen-En; Fan, Hueng-Chuen; Chen, Kang-Hua; Liu, Ya-Fang; Hsu, Huan-Ming; Chou, Hsiu-Ling; Yao, Chung-Tay

    2017-01-01

    Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the leading cancers worldwide. Several studies have performed microarray data analyses for cancer classification and prognostic analyses. Microarray assays also enable the identification of gene signatures for molecular characterization and treatment prediction. Objective Microarray gene expression data from the online Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database were used to to distinguish colorectal cancer from normal colon tissue samples. Methods We collected microarray data from the GEO database to establish colorectal cancer microarray gene expression datasets for a combined analysis. Using the Prediction Analysis for Microarrays (PAM) method and the GSEA MSigDB resource, we analyzed the 14,698 genes that were identified through an examination of their expression values between normal and tumor tissues. Results Ten genes (ABCG2, AQP8, SPIB, CA7, CLDN8, SCNN1B, SLC30A10, CD177, PADI2, and TGFBI) were found to be good indicators of the candidate genes that correlate with CRC. From these selected genes, an average of six significant genes were obtained using the PAM method, with an accuracy rate of 95%. The results demonstrate the potential of utilizing a model with the PAM method for data mining. After a detailed review of the published reports, the results confirmed that the screened candidate genes are good indicators for cancer risk analysis using the PAM method. Conclusions Six genes were selected with 95% accuracy to effectively classify normal and colorectal cancer tissues. We hope that these results will provide the basis for new research projects in clinical practice that aim to rapidly assess colorectal cancer risk using microarray gene expression analysis. PMID:28229027

  19. Cooperation versus confrontation: a comparison of approaches to environmental risk management in Japan and the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Covello, V.T.; Kawamura, K.; Boroush, M.; Ikeda, S.; Lynes, P.F.; Minor, M.S.

    1988-06-01

    This paper compares approaches to environmental risk management in Japan and the US. The paper includes a historical examination of two case studies of environmental risk management: synthetic detergents and lead in gasoline. In addition, the paper discusses several important differences between Japan and the US, including (a) different attitudes toward separating environmental risk management from environmental risk assessment, and (b) different approaches toward environmental risk management. Specifically, the Japanese approach is based largely on a cooperative model of risk management, with a strong emphasis on negotiation and consensus-building, while the US approach is based largely on a confrontational model of risk management, with a strong emphasis on rigorous scientific analysis and open adversarial processes.

  20. Does Vicarious Experience of Suffering Affect Empathy for an Adversary? The Effects of Israelis' Visits to Auschwitz on Their Empathy for Palestinians

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shechter, Hava; Salomon, Gavriel

    2005-01-01

    Empathy for the adversary is part of peace education. Does the vicarious experience of suffering affect empathy towards the suffering of an adversary? Specifically, does the visit of Israeli youth to Auschwitz affect their empathy toward the Palestinians? Three hundred and nine high school students participated in the study: One half went on the…

  1. Loss Exposure and Risk Analysis Methodology (LERAM) Project Database Design.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1996-06-01

    MISREPS) to more capably support system safety engineering concepts such as hazard analysis and risk management. As part of the Loss Exposure and Risk ... Analysis Methodology (LERAM) project, the research into the methods which we employ to report, track, and analyze hazards has resulted in a series of low

  2. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260..., based on Applicant's: (A) Industry outlook; (B) Market position; (C) Management and financial...

  3. 49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260..., based on Applicant's: (A) Industry outlook; (B) Market position; (C) Management and financial...

  4. Virtues and Limitations of Risk Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weatherwax, Robert K.

    1975-01-01

    After summarizing the Rasmussion Report, the author reviews the probabilistic portion of the report from the perspectives of engineering utility and risk assessment uncertainty. The author shows that the report may represent a significant step forward in the assurance of reactor safety and an imperfect measure of actual reactor risk. (BT)

  5. Risk analysis for plant-made vaccines.

    PubMed

    Kirk, Dwayne D; McIntosh, Kim; Walmsley, Amanda M; Peterson, Robert K D

    2005-08-01

    The production of vaccines in transgenic plants was first proposed in 1990 however no product has yet reached commercialization. There are several risks during the production and delivery stages of this technology, with potential impact on the environment and on human health. Risks to the environment include gene transfer and exposure to antigens or selectable marker proteins. Risks to human health include oral tolerance, allergenicity, inconsistent dosage, worker exposure and unintended exposure to antigens or selectable marker proteins in the food chain. These risks are controllable through appropriate regulatory measures at all stages of production and distribution of a potential plant-made vaccine. Successful use of this technology is highly dependant on stewardship and active risk management by the developers of this technology, and through quality standards for production, which will be set by regulatory agencies. Regulatory agencies can also negatively affect the future viability of this technology by requiring that all risks must be controlled, or by applying conventional regulations which are overly cumbersome for a plant production and oral delivery system. The value of new or replacement vaccines produced in plant cells and delivered orally must be considered alongside the probability and severity of potential risks in their production and use, and the cost of not deploying this technology--the risk of continuing with the status quo alternative.

  6. Risk-Based Explosive Safety Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-11-30

    safety siting of energetic liquids and propellants can be greatly aided by the use of risk-based methodologies. The low probability of exposed...of energetic liquids and propellants can be greatly aided by the use of risk-based methodologies. The low probability of exposed personnel and the

  7. Risk analysis for worker exposure to benzene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallenbeck, William H.; Flowers, Roxanne E.

    1992-05-01

    Cancer risk factors (characterized by route, dose, dose rate per kilogram, fraction of lifetime exposed, species, and sex) were derived for workers exposed to benzene via inhalation or ingestion. Exposure at the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) permissible exposure limit (PEL) and at leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites were evaluated. At the current PEL of 1 ppm, the theoretical lifetime excess risk of cancer from benzene inhalation is ten per 1000. The theoretical lifetime excess risk for worker inhalation exposure at LUST sites ranged from 10 to 40 per 1000. These results indicate that personal protection should be required. The theoretical lifetime excess risk due to soil ingestion is five to seven orders of magnitude less than the inhalation risks.

  8. Extended risk-analysis model for activities of the project.

    PubMed

    Kušar, Janez; Rihar, Lidija; Zargi, Urban; Starbek, Marko

    2013-12-01

    Project management of product/service orders has become a mode of operation in many companies. Although these are mostly cyclically recurring projects, risk management is very important for them. An extended risk-analysis model for new product/service projects is presented in this paper. Emphasis is on a solution developed in the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Ljubljana, Slovenia. The usual project activities risk analysis is based on evaluation of the probability that risk events occur and on evaluation of their consequences. A third parameter has been added in our model: an estimate of the incidence of risk events. On the basis of the calculated activity risk level, a project team prepares preventive and corrective measures that should be taken according to the status indicators. An important advantage of the proposed solution is that the project manager and his team members are timely warned of risk events and they can thus activate the envisaged preventive and corrective measures as necessary.

  9. EC Transmission Line Risk Identification and Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Bigelow, Tim S

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this document is to assist in evaluating and planning for the cost, schedule, and technical project risks associated with the delivery and operation of the EC (Electron cyclotron) transmission line system. In general, the major risks that are anticipated to be encountered during the project delivery phase associated with the implementation of the Procurement Arrangement for the EC transmission line system are associated with: (1) Undefined or changing requirements (e.g., functional or regulatory requirements) (2) Underperformance of prototype, first unit, or production components during testing (3) Unavailability of qualified vendors for critical components Technical risks associated with the design and operation of the system are also identified.

  10. An analysis of the new EPA risk management rule

    SciTech Connect

    Loran, B.; Nand, K.; Male, M.

    1997-08-01

    Due to increasing public concern of risks from handling highly hazardous chemicals at various facilities, a number of state and federal regulatory agencies, such as the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and recently the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), have enacted regulations requiring these facilities to perform accidental risk analysis and develop process safety and risk management programs. The regulatory requirements to be fulfilled are described; the major components involved are a Process Hazard Analysis, a Consequence Analysis, and a Management Program. The performance of these analyses and the development of a management program for 21 facilities operated by the City of Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, treating drinking water supplies with chlorine, is discussed. The effectiveness of the EPA risk management rule in achieving risk reduction is critically analyzed; it is found that, while the rule increases the worker and public awareness of the inherent risks present, some of the analytical results obtained may have a limited practical application.

  11. Fire behavior and risk analysis in spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Friedman, Robert; Sacksteder, Kurt R.

    1988-01-01

    Practical risk management for present and future spacecraft, including space stations, involves the optimization of residual risks balanced by the spacecraft operational, technological, and economic limitations. Spacecraft fire safety is approached through three strategies, in order of risk: (1) control of fire-causing elements, through exclusion of flammable materials for example; (2) response to incipient fires through detection and alarm; and (3) recovery of normal conditions through extinguishment and cleanup. Present understanding of combustion in low gravity is that, compared to normal gravity behavior, fire hazards may be reduced by the absence of buoyant gas flows yet at the same time increased by ventilation flows and hot particle expulsion. This paper discusses the application of low-gravity combustion knowledge and appropriate aircraft analogies to fire detection, fire fighting, and fire-safety decisions for eventual fire-risk management and optimization in spacecraft.

  12. Risk analysis of an RTG on the Space Shuttle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frank, Michael V.

    1991-01-01

    As part of the effort to review the Ulysses Final Safety Analysis Report and to understand the risk of plutonium release from the Ulysses spacecraft General Purpose Heat Source-Radioisotope Thermal Generator (GPHS-RTG), the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP) and the author performed an integrated, quantitative analysis of the uncertainties of the calculated risk of plutonium release from Ulysses. Using state-of-the-art probabilistic risk assessment technology, the uncertainty analysis accounted for both variability and uncertainty of the key parameters of the risk analysis. The results show tht INSRP had high confidence that risk of fatal cancers from potential plutonium release associated with calculated launch and deployment accident scenarios is low.

  13. The application of risk analysis in aquatic animal health management.

    PubMed

    Peeler, E J; Murray, A G; Thebault, A; Brun, E; Giovaninni, A; Thrush, M A

    2007-09-14

    Risk analysis has only been regularly used in the management of aquatic animal health in recent years. The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPS) stimulated the application of risk analysis to investigate disease risks associated with international trade (import risk analysis-IRA). A majority (9 of 17) of the risk analyses reviewed were IRA. The other major focus has been the parasite of Atlantic salmon--Gyrodactylus salaris. Six studies investigated the spread of this parasite, between countries, rivers and from farmed to wild stocks, and clearly demonstrated that risk analysis can support aquatic animal health policy development, from international trade and biosecurity to disease interaction between wild and farmed stocks. Other applications of risk analysis included the spread of vertically transmitted pathogens and disease emergence in aquaculture. The Covello-Merkhofer, risk analysis model was most commonly used and appears to be a flexible tool not only for IRA but also the investigation of disease spread in other contexts. The limitations of the identified risk assessments were discussed. A majority were qualitative, partly due to the lack of data for quantitative analysis, and this, it can be argued, constrained their usefulness for trade purposes (i.e. setting appropriate sanitary measures); in other instances, a qualitative result was found to be adequate for decision making. A lack of information about the disease hazards of the large number of fish species traded is likely to constrain quantitative analysis for a number of years. The consequence assessment element of a risk analysis was most likely to be omitted, or limited in scope and depth, rarely extending beyond examining the evidence of susceptibility of farmed and wild species to the identified hazard. The reasons for this are discussed and recommendations made to develop guidelines for a consistent, systematic and multi-disciplinary approach to consequence

  14. Institutionalizing dissent: a proposal for an adversarial system of pharmaceutical research.

    PubMed

    Biddle, Justin

    2013-12-01

    There are serious problems with the way in which pharmaceutical research is currently practiced, many of which can be traced to the influence of commercial interests on research. One of the most significant is inadequate dissent, or organized skepticism. In order to ameliorate this problem, I develop a proposal that I call the "Adversarial Proceedings for the Evaluation of Pharmaceuticals," to be instituted within a regulatory agency such as the Food and Drug Administration for the evaluation of controversial new drugs and controversial drugs already in the market. This proposal is an organizational one based upon the "science court" proposal by Arthur Kantrowitz in the 1960s and 1970s. The primary benefit of this system is its ability to institutionalize dissent, thereby ensuring that one set of interests does not dominate all others.

  15. Control of Small Robot Squads in Complex Adversarial Environments: a Review

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-06-01

    and representation. Simply put, humans do not  think  in the same terms as  robots .    While there is extensive literature on human‐ robot  interactions...to be different from those of human warriors. These  non‐ humanoid  tactics should take into account the unique strengths and weaknesses of  robotic ...Control of Small  Robot  Squads in Complex Adversarial Environments: a Review    Topic: C2 Architectures and Technologies    Stuart Young, Army

  16. Insider adversary study for the Office of Safeguards and Security: US Department of Energy. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Sutton, R.H.

    1983-06-24

    This study provides the Department of Energy (DOE) with a comprehensive description of insider adversary activity at its nuclear facilities and those nuclear facilities operated for DOE by its contractors. The description is based on DOE's violation records from 1965 to 1982. Files were reviewed and data were collected from DOE Headquarters, field offices, and selected laboratory and contractor records. The quality and completeness of the study's data are somewhat limited due to inconsistencies in the organization, content, and availability of Headquarters and field office case reports. File organization and retention periods as well as reporting standards vary among DOE offices, facilities, and contractors. The range of crime reviewed was extensive and included major as well as minor levels of crimes. The criterion used for inclusion of crimes in this study was that they were committed by an insider who exhibited wrongful intent in the commission of the crime.

  17. Imparting protean behavior to mobile robots accomplishing patrolling tasks in the presence of adversaries.

    PubMed

    Curiac, Daniel-Ioan; Volosencu, Constantin

    2015-10-08

    Providing unpredictable trajectories for patrol robots is essential when coping with adversaries. In order to solve this problem we developed an effective approach based on the known protean behavior of individual prey animals-random zig-zag movement. The proposed bio-inspired method modifies the normal robot's path by incorporating sudden and irregular direction changes without jeopardizing the robot's mission. Such a tactic is aimed to confuse the enemy (e.g. a sniper), offering less time to acquire and retain sight alignment and sight picture. This idea is implemented by simulating a series of fictive-temporary obstacles that will randomly appear in the robot's field of view, deceiving the obstacle avoiding mechanism to react. The new general methodology is particularized by using the Arnold's cat map to obtain the timely random appearance and disappearance of the fictive obstacles. The viability of the proposed method is confirmed through an extensive simulation case study.

  18. When does familiarity promote versus undermine interpersonal attraction? A proposed integrative model from erstwhile adversaries.

    PubMed

    Finkel, Eli J; Norton, Michael I; Reis, Harry T; Ariely, Dan; Caprariello, Peter A; Eastwick, Paul W; Frost, Jeana H; Maniaci, Michael R

    2015-01-01

    This article began as an adversarial collaboration between two groups of researchers with competing views on a longstanding question: Does familiarity promote or undermine interpersonal attraction? As we explored our respective positions, it became clear that the limitations of our conceptualizations of the familiarity-attraction link, as well as the limitations of prior research, were masking a set of higher order principles capable of integrating these diverse conceptualizations. This realization led us to adopt a broader perspective, which focuses on three distinct relationship stages-awareness, surface contact, and mutuality-and suggests that the influence of familiarity on attraction depends on both the nature and the stage of the relationship between perceivers and targets. This article introduces the framework that emerged from our discussions and suggests directions for research to investigate its validity.

  19. A Comparison of Disease Risk Analysis Tools for Conservation Translocations.

    PubMed

    Dalziel, Antonia Eleanor; Sainsbury, Anthony W; McInnes, Kate; Jakob-Hoff, Richard; Ewen, John G

    2017-03-01

    Conservation translocations are increasingly used to manage threatened species and restore ecosystems. Translocations increase the risk of disease outbreaks in the translocated and recipient populations. Qualitative disease risk analyses have been used as a means of assessing the magnitude of any effect of disease and the probability of the disease occurring associated with a translocation. Currently multiple alternative qualitative disease risk analysis packages are available to practitioners. Here we compare the ease of use, expertise required, transparency, and results from, three different qualitative disease risk analyses using a translocation of the endangered New Zealand passerine, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), as a model. We show that the three methods use fundamentally different approaches to define hazards. Different methods are used to produce estimations of the risk from disease, and the estimations are different for the same hazards. Transparency of the process varies between methods from no referencing, or explanations of evidence to justify decisions, through to full documentation of resources, decisions and assumptions made. Evidence to support decisions on estimation of risk from disease is important, to enable knowledge acquired in the future, for example, from translocation outcome, to be used to improve the risk estimation for future translocations. Information documenting each disease risk analysis differs along with variation in emphasis of the questions asked within each package. The expertise required to commence a disease risk analysis varies and an action flow chart tailored for the non-wildlife health specialist are included in one method but completion of the disease risk analysis requires wildlife health specialists with epidemiological and pathological knowledge in all three methods. We show that disease risk analysis package choice may play a greater role in the overall risk estimation of the effect of disease on animal populations

  20. Maternal migration and autism risk: systematic analysis.

    PubMed

    Crafa, Daina; Warfa, Nasir

    2015-02-01

    Autism (AUT) is one of the most prevalent developmental disorders emerging during childhood, and can be amongst the most incapacitating mental disorders. Some individuals with AUT require a lifetime of supervised care. Autism Speaks reported estimated costs for 2012 at £34 billion in the UK; and $3.2 million-$126 billion in the US, Australia and Canada. Ethnicity and migration experiences appear to increase risks of AUT and relate to underlying biological risk factors. Sociobiological stress factors can affect the uterine environment, or relate to stress-induced epigenetic changes during pregnancy and delivery. Epigenetic risk factors associated with AUT also include poor pregnancy conditions, low birth weight, and congenital malformation. Recent studies report that children from migrant communities are at higher risk of AUT than children born to non-migrant mothers, with the exception of Hispanic children. This paper provides the first systematic review into prevalence and predictors of AUT with a particular focus on maternal migration stressors and epigenetic risk factors. AUT rates appear higher in certain migrant communities, potentially relating to epigenetic changes after stressful experiences. Although AUT remains a rare disorder, failures to recognize its public health urgency and local community needs continue to leave certain cultural groups at a disadvantage.

  1. Successful risk assessment may not always lead to successful risk control: A systematic literature review of risk control after root cause analysis.

    PubMed

    Card, Alan J; Ward, James; Clarkson, P John

    2012-01-01

    Root cause analysis is perhaps the most widely used tool in healthcare risk management, but does it actually lead to successful risk control? Are there categories of risk control that are more likely to be effective? And do healthcare risk managers have the tools they need to support the risk control process? This systematic review examines how the healthcare sector translates risk analysis to risk control action plans and examines how to do better. It suggests that the hierarchy of risk controls should inform risk control action planning and that new tools should be developed to improve the risk control process.

  2. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    SciTech Connect

    Bogen, K T

    2005-11-18

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.

  3. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  4. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    SciTech Connect

    Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.; Helms, Jovana; Imbro, Dennis Raymond; Sumner, Matthew C.

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  5. Asbestos Workshop: Sampling, Analysis, and Risk Assessment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-03-01

    fibrosis (fibrosis of the lining of the cavity holding the lungs) EMDQ March 2012 Chest x - ray showing areas of scarring related to asbestosis. 8...soil) •If the expected number of asbestos structures in a sample is λ, then the probability that there are exactly x asbestos fibers is equal to: •E.g...Estimating Risk for Asbestos Risk = Exposure x Toxicity = [Air] × ET × EF × IUR = f/cm3× hour/hour × day/day × (f/cm3)-1 For asbestos , ED is

  6. Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moynihan, Gary P.; Fonseca, Daniel J.; Ray, Paul S.

    2010-01-01

    A conceptual design has been announced of an expert-system computer program, and the development of a prototype of the program, intended for use as a project-management tool. The program integrates schedule and risk data for the purpose of determining the schedule applications of safety risks and, somewhat conversely, the effects of changes in schedules on changes on safety. It is noted that the design has been delivered to a NASA client and that it is planned to disclose the design in a conference presentation.

  7. Alcohol Consumption and Gastric Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Ke; Baloch, Zulqarnain; He, Ting-Ting; Xia, Xueshan

    2017-01-01

    Background We sought to determine by meta-analysis the relationship between drinking alcohol and the risk of gastric cancer. Material/Methods A systematic Medline search was performed to identify all published reports of drinking alcohol and the associated risk of gastric cancer. Initially we retrieved 2,494 studies, but after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, only ten studies were found to be eligible for our meta-analysis. Results Our meta-analysis showed that alcohol consumption elevated the risk of gastric cancer with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.39 (95% CI 1.20–1.61). Additionally, subgroup analysis showed that only a nested case-control report from Sweden did not support this observation. Subgroup analysis of moderate drinking and heavy drinking also confirmed that drinking alcohol increased the risk of gastric cancer. Publication bias analysis (Begg’s and Egger’s tests) showed p values were more than 0.05, suggesting that the 10 articles included in our analysis did not have a publication bias. Conclusions The results from this meta-analysis support the hypothesis that alcohol consumption can increase the risk of gastric cancer; suggesting that effective moderation of alcohol drinking may reduce the risk of gastric cancer. PMID:28087989

  8. A review of risk analysis and helicopter air ambulance accidents.

    PubMed

    Nix, Sam; Buckner, Steven; Cercone, Richard

    2014-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration announced a final rule in February 2014 that includes a requirement for helicopter air ambulance operators to institute preflight risk analysis programs. This qualitative study examined risk factors that were described in 22 preliminary, factual, and probable cause helicopter air ambulance accident and incident reports that were initiated by the National Transportation Safety Board between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2013. Insights into the effectiveness of existing preflight risk analysis strategies were gained by comparing these risk factors with the preflight risk analysis guidance that is published by the Federal Aviation Administration in the Flight Standards Information Management System. When appropriate, a deeper understanding of the human factors that may have contributed to occurrences was gained through methodologies that are described in the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System. The results of this study suggest that there are some vulnerabilities in existing preflight risk analysis guidelines that may affect safety in the helicopter air ambulance industry. The likelihood that human factors contributed to most of the helicopter air ambulance accidents and incidents that occurred during the study period was also evidenced. The results of this study suggest that effective risk analysis programs should provide pilots with both preflight and in-flight resources.

  9. Cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a detailed analysis and position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group.

    PubMed

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome," and "risk stratification" overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. There is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. With the objectives of clarifying these concepts and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group reviewed the evidence related to emerging cardiovascular risk factors and Canadian guideline recommendations in order to present a detailed analysis and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider risk factors related to ethnicity in order to appropriately evaluate everyone in their diverse patient populations.

  10. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    PubMed

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  11. Risk-benefit analysis: from a logical point of view.

    PubMed

    Spielthenner, Georg

    2012-06-01

    In this paper I am concerned with risk-benefit analysis; that is, the comparison of the risks of a situation to its related benefits. We all face such situations in our daily lives and they are very common in medicine too, where risk-benefit analysis has become an important tool for rational decision-making. This paper explores risk-benefit analysis from a logical point of view. In particular, it seeks a better understanding of the common view that decisions should be made by weighing risks against benefits and that an option should be chosen if its benefits outweigh its risks. I devote a good deal of this paper scrutinizing this popular view. Specifically, I demonstrate that this mode of reasoning is logically faulty if "risk" and "benefit" are taken in their absolute sense. But I also show that arguing in favour of an action because its benefits outweigh its risks can be valid if we refer to incremental risks and benefits.

  12. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  13. Economic Risk Analysis: Using Analytical and Monte Carlo Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Donnell, Brendan R.; Hickner, Michael A.; Barna, Bruce A.

    2002-01-01

    Describes the development and instructional use of a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet template that facilitates analytical and Monte Carlo risk analysis of investment decisions. Discusses a variety of risk assessment methods followed by applications of the analytical and Monte Carlo methods. Uses a case study to illustrate use of the spreadsheet tool…

  14. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    PubMed

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2016-11-28

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks.

  15. DOE 2009 Geothermal Risk Analysis: Methodology and Results (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    This presentation summarizes the methodology and results for a probabilistic risk analysis of research, development, and demonstration work-primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)-sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program.

  16. American Airlines Propeller STOL Transport Economic Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ransone, B.

    1972-01-01

    A Monte Carlo risk analysis on the economics of STOL transports in air passenger traffic established the probability of making the expected internal rate of financial return, or better, in a hypothetical regular Washington/New York intercity operation.

  17. USAWC Coronary Risk and Fitness Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-06-04

    hazardous chemicals or other to an increased risk of cancer of the (especially high fat diets) and bowel substances. mouth, throat , larynx (voice box...There is no sure technique lot death rate 60-80% greater than of the mouth, throat , larynx . giving up smoking People Nnmoke nonsmokers. They are more...mouth, throat . larynx . giving up smoking. People smoke nonsmokers. They are more likely esophagus, pancreas. and bladder. for different reasons and what

  18. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  19. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  20. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  1. Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

    PubMed

    Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

  2. The semantic distinction between "risk" and "danger": a linguistic analysis.

    PubMed

    Boholm, Max

    2012-02-01

    The analysis combines frame semantic and corpus linguistic approaches in analyzing the role of agency and decision making in the semantics of the words "risk" and "danger" (both nominal and verbal uses). In frame semantics, the meanings of "risk" and of related words, such as "danger," are analyzed against the background of a specific cognitive-semantic structure (a frame) comprising frame elements such as Protagonist, Bad Outcome, Decision, Possession, and Source. Empirical data derive from the British National Corpus (100 million words). Results indicate both similarities and differences in use. First, both "risk" and "danger" are commonly used to represent situations having potential negative consequences as the result of agency. Second, "risk" and "danger," especially their verbal uses (to risk, to endanger), differ in agent-victim structure, i.e., "risk" is used to express that a person affected by an action is also the agent of the action, while "endanger" is used to express that the one affected is not the agent. Third, "risk," but not "danger," tends to be used to represent rational and goal-directed action. The results therefore to some extent confirm the analysis of "risk" and "danger" suggested by German sociologist Niklas Luhmann. As a point of discussion, the present findings arguably have implications for risk communication.

  3. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    PubMed

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure.

  4. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    PubMed

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process.

  5. Land Use Adaptation Strategies Analysis in Landslide Risk Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yu-Ching; Chang, Chin-Hsin; Chen, Ying-Tung

    2013-04-01

    In order to respond to the impact of climate and environmental change on Taiwanese mountain region, this study used GTZ (2004) Risk analysis guidelines to assess the landslide risk for 178 Taiwanese mountain towns. This study used 7 indicators to assess landslide risk, which are rainfall distribution, natural environment vulnerability (e.g., rainfall threshold criterion for debris flow, historical disaster frequency, landslide ratio, and road density), physicality vulnerability (e.g., population density) and socio-economic vulnerability (e.g., population with higher education, death rate and income). The landslide risk map can be obtained by multiplying 7 indicators together and ranking the product. The map had 5 risk ranges, and towns within the range of 4 to 5, which are high landslide risk regions, and have high priority in reducing risk. This study collected the regions with high landslide risk regions and analyzed the difference after Typhoon Morakot (2009). The spatial distribution showed that after significant environmental damage high landslide risk regions moved from central to south Taiwan. The changeable pattern of risk regions pointed out the necessity of updating the risk map periodically. Based on the landslide risk map and the land use investigation data which was provided by the National Land Surveying and Mapping Center in 2007, this study calculated the size of the land use area with landslide disaster risk. According to the above results and discussion, this study can be used to suggest appropriate land use adaptation strategies provided for reducing landslide risk under the impact of climate and environmental change.

  6. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability

  7. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation.

    PubMed

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2014-01-15

    An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  8. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    PubMed

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures.

  9. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheung, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a systems engineering approach to resource planning by integrating mathematical modeling and constrained optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to generate an optimal task plan in the presence of uncertainties.

  10. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  11. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

  12. Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

  13. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: medicines.

    PubMed

    Luteijn, J M; White, B C; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Holm, F; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; McCarron, P A; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    Benefit-risk assessment in medicine has been a valuable tool in the regulation of medicines since the 1960s. Benefit-risk assessment takes place in multiple stages during a medicine's life-cycle and can be conducted in a variety of ways, using methods ranging from qualitative to quantitative. Each benefit-risk assessment method is subject to its own specific strengths and limitations. Despite its widespread and long-time use, benefit-risk assessment in medicine is subject to debate and suffers from a number of limitations and is currently still under development. This state of the art review paper will discuss the various aspects and approaches to benefit-risk assessment in medicine in a chronological pathway. The review will discuss all types of benefit-risk assessment a medicinal product will undergo during its lifecycle, from Phase I clinical trials to post-marketing surveillance and health technology assessment for inclusion in public formularies. The benefit-risk profile of a drug is dynamic and differs for different indications and patient groups. In the end of this review we conclude benefit-risk analysis in medicine is a developed practice that is subject to continuous improvement and modernisation. Improvement not only in methodology, but also in cooperation between organizations can improve benefit-risk assessment.

  14. Cutting out the middleman: physicians can contract directly with employers--a viable alternative to adversarial managed care agreements.

    PubMed

    Lester, Howard

    2002-01-01

    HMOs, PPOs, and other managed care "middlemen" control the means by which most physicians do business with employers. As physicians face dwindling reimbursements, greater practice restrictions, and increased pressure to sign adversarial middleman contracts, interest in direct contracting has grown. This article introduces direct contracting as an important alternative to commercial managed care agreements; cites the key advantages and process of direct contracting; and offers practical recommendations for helping physician practices successfully negotiate direct physician/employer agreements.

  15. Geotechnical risk analysis by flat dilatometer (DMT)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amoroso, Sara; Monaco, Paola

    2015-04-01

    In the last decades we have assisted at a massive migration from laboratory testing to in situ testing, to the point that, today, in situ testing is often the major part of a geotechnical investigation. The State of the Art indicates that direct-push in situ tests, such as the Cone Penetration Test (CPT) and the Flat Dilatometer Test (DMT), are fast and convenient in situ tests for routine site investigation. In most cases the DMT estimated parameters, in particular the undrained shear strength su and the constrained modulus M, are used with the common design methods of Geotechnical Engineering for evaluating bearing capacity, settlements etc. The paper focuses on the prediction of settlements of shallow foundations, that is probably the No. 1 application of the DMT, especially in sands, where undisturbed samples cannot be retrieved, and on the risk associated with their design. A compilation of documented case histories that compare DMT-predicted vs observed settlements, was collected by Monaco et al. (2006), indicating that, in general, the constrained modulus M can be considered a reasonable "operative modulus" (relevant to foundations in "working conditions") for settlement predictions based on the traditional linear elastic approach. Indeed, the use of a site investigation method, such as DMT, that improve the accuracy of design parameters, reduces risk, and the design can then center on the site's true soil variability without parasitic test variability. In this respect, Failmezger et al. (1999, 2015) suggested to introduce Beta probability distribution, that provides a realistic and useful description of variability for geotechnical design problems. The paper estimates Beta probability distribution in research sites where DMT tests and observed settlements are available. References Failmezger, R.A., Rom, D., Ziegler, S.R. (1999). "SPT? A better approach of characterizing residual soils using other in-situ tests", Behavioral Characterics of Residual Soils, B

  16. Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

    2015-04-01

    A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies.

  17. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures.

  18. An integrated risk analysis methodology in a multidisciplinary design environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hampton, Katrina Renee

    Design of complex, one-of-a-kind systems, such as space transportation systems, is characterized by high uncertainty and, consequently, high risk. It is necessary to account for these uncertainties in the design process to produce systems that are more reliable. Systems designed by including uncertainties and managing them, as well, are more robust and less prone to poor operations as a result of parameter variability. The quantification, analysis and mitigation of uncertainties are challenging tasks as many systems lack historical data. In such an environment, risk or uncertainty quantification becomes subjective because input data is based on professional judgment. Additionally, there are uncertainties associated with the analysis tools and models. Both the input data and the model uncertainties must be considered for a multi disciplinary systems level risk analysis. This research synthesizes an integrated approach for developing a method for risk analysis. Expert judgment methodology is employed to quantify external risk. This methodology is then combined with a Latin Hypercube Sampling - Monte Carlo simulation to propagate uncertainties across a multidisciplinary environment for the overall system. Finally, a robust design strategy is employed to mitigate risk during the optimization process. This type of approach to risk analysis is conducive to the examination of quantitative risk factors. The core of this research methodology is the theoretical framework for uncertainty propagation. The research is divided into three stages or modules. The first two modules include the identification/quantification and propagation of uncertainties. The third module involves the management of uncertainties or response optimization. This final module also incorporates the integration of risk into program decision-making. The risk analysis methodology, is applied to a launch vehicle conceptual design study at NASA Langley Research Center. The launch vehicle multidisciplinary

  19. Adversarial intent modeling using embedded simulation and temporal Bayesian knowledge bases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pioch, Nicholas J.; Melhuish, James; Seidel, Andy; Santos, Eugene, Jr.; Li, Deqing; Gorniak, Mark

    2009-05-01

    To foster shared battlespace awareness among air strategy planners, BAE Systems has developed Commander's Model Integration and Simulation Toolkit (CMIST), an Integrated Development Environment for authoring, integration, validation, and debugging of models relating multiple domains, including political, military, social, economic and information. CMIST provides a unified graphical user interface for such systems of systems modeling, spanning several disparate modeling paradigms. Here, we briefly review the CMIST architecture and then compare modeling results using two approaches to intent modeling. The first uses reactive agents with simplified behavior models that apply rule-based triggers to initiate actions based solely on observations of the external world at the current time in the simulation. The second method models proactive agents running an embedded CMIST simulation representing their projection of how events may unfold in the future in order to take early preventative action. Finally, we discuss a recent extension to CMIST that incorporates Temporal Bayesian Knowledge Bases for more sophisticated models of adversarial intent that are capable of inferring goals and future actions given evidence of current actions at particular times.

  20. The Effects of Sacred Value Networks Within an Evolutionary, Adversarial Game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCalla, Scott G.; Short, Martin B.; Brantingham, P. Jeffrey

    2013-05-01

    The effects of personal relationships and shared ideologies on levels of crime and the formation of criminal coalitions are studied within the context of an adversarial, evolutionary game first introduced in Short et al. (Phys. Rev. E 82:066114, 2010). Here, we interpret these relationships as connections on a graph of N players. These connections are then used in a variety of ways to define each player's "sacred value network"—groups of individuals that are subject to special consideration or treatment by that player. We explore the effects on the dynamics of the system that these networks introduce, through various forms of protection from both victimization and punishment. Under local protection, these networks introduce a new fixed point within the game dynamics, which we find through a continuum approximation of the discrete game. Under more complicated, extended protection, we numerically observe the emergence of criminal coalitions, or "gangs". We also find that a high-crime steady state is much more frequent in the context of extended protection networks, in both the case of Erdős-Rényi and small world random graphs.

  1. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    PubMed

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume.

  2. Credibility analysis of risk classes by generalized linear model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdemir, Ovgucan Karadag; Sucu, Meral

    2016-06-01

    In this paper generalized linear model (GLM) and credibility theory which are frequently used in nonlife insurance pricing are combined for reliability analysis. Using full credibility standard, GLM is associated with limited fluctuation credibility approach. Comparison criteria such as asymptotic variance and credibility probability are used to analyze the credibility of risk classes. An application is performed by using one-year claim frequency data of a Turkish insurance company and results of credible risk classes are interpreted.

  3. Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

    2016-08-13

    Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance.

  4. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    PubMed

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

  5. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a regulatory risk model

    SciTech Connect

    Kumar, A.; Manocha, A.; Shenoy, T.

    1999-07-01

    Health Risk Assessments (H.R.A.s) are increasingly being used in the environmental decision making process, starting from problem identification to the final clean up activities. A key issue concerning the results of these risk assessments is the uncertainty associated with them. This uncertainty has been associated with highly conservative estimates of risk assessment parameters in past studies. The primary purpose of this study was to investigate error propagation through a risk model. A hypothetical glass plant situated in the state of California was studied. Air emissions from this plant were modeled using the ISCST2 model and the risk was calculated using the ACE2588 model. The downwash was also considered during the concentration calculations. A sensitivity analysis on the risk computations identified five parameters--mixing depth for human consumption, deposition velocity, weathering constant, interception factors for vine crop and the average leaf vegetable consumption--which had the greatest impact on the calculated risk. A Monte Carlo analysis using these five parameters resulted in a distribution with a lesser percentage deviation than the percentage standard deviation of the input parameters.

  6. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  7. Dietary Patterns and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Lu, Pei-Ying; Shu, Long; Shen, Shan-Shan; Chen, Xu-Jiao; Zhang, Xiao-Yan

    2017-01-05

    A number of studies have examined the associations between dietary patterns and pancreatic cancer risk, but the findings have been inconclusive. Herein, we conducted this meta-analysis to assess the associations between dietary patterns and the risk of pancreatic cancer. MEDLINE (provided by the National Library of Medicine) and EBSCO (Elton B. Stephens Company) databases were searched for relevant articles published up to May 2016 that identified common dietary patterns. Thirty-two studies met the inclusion criteria and were finally included in this meta-analysis. A reduced risk of pancreatic cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest categories of healthy patterns (odds ratio, OR = 0.86; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.77-0.95; p = 0.004) and light-moderate drinking patterns (OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.83-0.98; p = 0.02). There was evidence of an increased risk for pancreatic cancer in the highest compared with the lowest categories of western-type pattern (OR = 1.24; 95% CI: 1.06-1.45; p = 0.008) and heavy drinking pattern (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.10-1.48; p = 0.002). The results of this meta-analysis demonstrate that healthy and light-moderate drinking patterns may decrease the risk of pancreatic cancer, whereas western-type and heavy drinking patterns may increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. Additional prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

  8. Quantitative Risk Analysis of Obstacle Limitation Standards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandaradura, Amila Silva

    Obstacle limitation surfaces (OLS) are the main safeguard against objects that can pose a hazard to aircraft operations at and around the airports. The standard dimensions of the most of these surfaces were estimated using the pilot's experience at the time when they were included in to the standard documents. As a result, some of these standards may have been overestimated while others may not provide an adequate level of safety. With airports moving to the Safety Management System (SMS) approach to design and operations safety, proper evaluation of the level of safety provided by OLS at specific sites becomes great importance to airport operators. There is no published evidence, however, for the estimation of the safety level provided by the existing OLS standards. Moreover, the rationale used by the ICAO to establish existing OLS standards is not readily available in the standard documents. Therefore this study attempts to collect actual flight path data using information provided by air traffic control radars and construct a methodology to assess the probability of aircraft deviating from their intended/protected path. The extension of the developed methodology can be used to estimate the OLS dimensions that provide an acceptable safety level for the aircraft operations. This will be helpful to estimate safe and efficient standard dimensions of the OLS and assess the risk level of objects to the aircraft operations around airports. In order to assess the existing standards and show the applications of the methodology, three case studies were conducted using aircraft data collected from Ottawa (CYOW), Calgary (CYYC) and Edmonton (CYEG) International Airports.

  9. A quantitative analysis of fish consumption and stroke risk.

    PubMed

    Bouzan, Colleen; Cohen, Joshua T; Connor, William E; Kris-Etherton, Penny M; Gray, George M; König, Ariane; Lawrence, Robert S; Savitz, David A; Teutsch, Steven M

    2005-11-01

    Although a rich source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that may confer multiple health benefits, some fish contain methyl mercury (MeHg), which may harm the developing fetus. U.S. government recommendations for women of childbearing age are to modify consumption of high-MeHg fish to reduce MeHg exposure, while recommendations encourage fish consumption among the general population because of the nutritional benefits. The Harvard Center for Risk Analysis convened an expert panel (see acknowledgements) to quantify the net impact of resulting hypothetical changes in fish consumption across the population. This paper estimates the impact of fish consumption on stroke risk. Other papers quantify coronary heart disease mortality risk and the impacts of both prenatal MeHg exposure and maternal intake of n-3 PUFAs on cognitive development. This analysis identified articles in a recent qualitative literature review that are appropriate for the development of a dose-response relationship between fish consumption and stroke risk. Studies had to satisfy quality criteria, quantify fish intake, and report the precision of the relative risk estimates. The analysis combined the relative risk results, weighting each proportionately to its precision. Six studies were identified as appropriate for inclusion in this analysis, including five prospective cohort studies and one case-control study (total of 24 exposure groups). Our analysis indicates that any fish consumption confers substantial relative risk reduction compared to no fish consumption (12% for the linear model), with the possibility that additional consumption confers incremental benefits (central estimate of 2.0% per serving per week).

  10. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    PubMed

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB).

  11. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Initial Proposal : Risk Analysis Study.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2005-11-01

    The Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS), operated on behalf of the ratepayers of the PNW by BPA and other Federal agencies, faces many uncertainties during the FY 2007-2009 rate period. Among these uncertainties, the largest revolve around hydro conditions, market prices and river operations for fish recovery. In order to provide a high probability of making its U.S. Treasury payments, BPA performs a Risk Analysis as part of its rate-making process. In this Risk Analysis, BPA identifies key risks, models their relationships, and then analyzes their impacts on net revenues (total revenues less expenses). BPA subsequently evaluates in the ToolKit Model the Treasury Payment Probability (TPP) resulting from the rates, risks, and risk mitigation measures described here and in the Wholesale Power Rate Development Study (WPRDS). If the TPP falls short of BPA's standard, additional risk mitigation revenues, such as PNRR and CRAC revenues are incorporated in the modeling in ToolKit until the TPP standard is met. Increased wholesale market price volatility and six years of drought have significantly changed the profile of risk and uncertainty facing BPA and its stakeholders. These present new challenges for BPA in its effort to keep its power rates as low as possible while fully meeting its obligations to the U.S. Treasury. As a result, the risk BPA faces in not receiving the level of secondary revenues that have been credited to power rates before receiving those funds is greater. In addition to market price volatility, BPA also faces uncertainty around the financial impacts of operations for fish programs in FY 2006 and in the FY 2007-2009 rate period. A new Biological Opinion or possible court-ordered change to river operations in FY 2006 through FY 2009 may reduce BPA's net revenues included Initial Proposal. Finally, the FY 2007-2009 risk analysis includes new operational risks as well as a more comprehensive analysis of non-operating risks. Both the operational

  12. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  13. From risk analysis to risk governance - Adapting to an ever more complex future.

    PubMed

    Pfeiffer, Dirk U

    2014-01-01

    Risk analysis is now widely accepted amongst veterinary authorities and other stakeholders around the world as a conceptual framework for integrating scientific evidence into animal health decision making. The resulting risk management for most diseases primarily involves linking epidemiological understanding with diagnostics and/or vaccines. Recent disease outbreaks such as Nipah virus, SARS, avian influenza H5N1, bluetongue serotype 8 and Schmallenberg virus have led to realising that we need to explicitly take into account the underlying complex interactions between environmental, epidemiological and social factors which are often also spatially and temporally heterogeneous as well as interconnected across affected regions and beyond. A particular challenge is to obtain adequate understanding of the influence of human behaviour and to translate this into effective mechanisms leading to appropriate behaviour change where necessary. Both, the One Health and the ecohealth approaches reflect the need for such a holistic systems perspective, however the current implementation of risk analysis frameworks for animal health and food safety is still dominated by a natural or biomedical perspective of science as is the implementation of control and prevention policies. This article proposes to integrate the risk analysis approach with a risk governance framework which explicitly adds the socio-economic context to policy development and emphasizes the need for organisational change and stakeholder engagement.

  14. DMAICR in an ergonomic risks analysis.

    PubMed

    Santos, E F; Lima, C R C

    2012-01-01

    The DMAICR problem-solving methodology is used throughout this paper to show you how to implement ergonomics recommendations. The DMAICR method consists of the following five six steps by which you can solve ergonomic design problems: The steps of the proposed method, adapting DMAICR, are the following: In the steep D, there is the definition of the project or the situation to be assessed and its guiding objectives, known as demand. In the step M, it relates to the work, tasks and organizational protocols and also includes the need of measuring. In the step A, all concepts are about the analysis itself. The step I is the moment of improving or incrementing. In the step C, control, prevention from prospective troublesome situation and implementation of management are the activities controlling the situation. R is Report. Some relevant technical and conceptual aspects for the comparison of these methodologies are illustrated in this paper. The steps of DMAICR were taken by a multifunctional team (multi-professional and multi-disciplinary) termed as focus group, composed by selected members of the company and supported by experts in ergonomics.

  15. Homeland security R&D roadmapping : risk-based methodological options.

    SciTech Connect

    Brandt, Larry D.

    2008-12-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories support the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in the development and execution of a research and development (R&D) strategy to improve the nation's preparedness against terrorist threats. Current approaches to planning and prioritization of DHS research decisions are informed by risk assessment tools and processes intended to allocate resources to programs that are likely to have the highest payoff. Early applications of such processes have faced challenges in several areas, including characterization of the intelligent adversary and linkage to strategic risk management decisions. The risk-based analysis initiatives at Sandia Laboratories could augment the methodologies currently being applied by the DHS and could support more credible R&D roadmapping for national homeland security programs. Implementation and execution issues facing homeland security R&D initiatives within the national laboratories emerged as a particular concern in this research.

  16. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    PubMed

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  17. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  18. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    SciTech Connect

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N. Andritsos, Nikolaos Psomas, Antonios Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  19. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  20. Evaluating the risk of patient re-identification from adverse drug event reports

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Our objective was to develop a model for measuring re-identification risk that more closely mimics the behaviour of an adversary by accounting for repeated attempts at matching and verification of matches, and apply it to evaluate the risk of re-identification for Canada’s post-marketing adverse drug event database (ADE).Re-identification is only demonstrably plausible for deaths in ADE. A matching experiment between ADE records and virtual obituaries constructed from Statistics Canada vital statistics was simulated. A new re-identification risk is considered, it assumes that after gathering all the potential matches for a patient record (all records in the obituaries that are potential matches for an ADE record), an adversary tries to verify these potential matches. Two adversary scenarios were considered: (a) a mildly motivated adversary who will stop after one verification attempt, and (b) a highly motivated adversary who will attempt to verify all the potential matches and is only limited by practical or financial considerations. Methods The mean percentage of records in ADE that had a high probability of being re-identified was computed. Results Under scenario (a), the risk of re-identification from disclosing the province, age at death, gender, and exact date of the report is quite high, but the removal of province brings down the risk significantly. By only generalizing the date of reporting to month and year and including all other variables, the risk is always low. All ADE records have a high risk of re-identification under scenario (b), but the plausibility of that scenario is limited because of the financial and practical deterrent even for highly motivated adversaries. Conclusions It is possible to disclose Canada’s adverse drug event database while ensuring that plausible re-identification risks are acceptably low. Our new re-identification risk model is suitable for such risk assessments. PMID:24094134

  1. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  2. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    SciTech Connect

    McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G.; Nix, G.

    2007-03-01

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.

  3. Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

    SciTech Connect

    Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

    1994-04-01

    The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

  4. RASOR Project: Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation of Risk, from Hazard to Risk using EO data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Over recent decades, there has been a dramatic rise in disasters, and their impact on human populations. Escalation in complexities in our societies is making risks increasingly difficult to understand and changing the ways in which hazards interact with each other. The Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk (RASOR) project developed a multi-hazard risk analysis platform to support the full cycle of disaster management. RASOR provides up-to-date hazard information across floods and geohazards, up-to-date exposure data from known sources and newly-generated EO-based data, and characterised quantitatively their vulnerabilities. RASOR also adapts the newly-developed 12m resolution global TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to risk management applications, using it as a base layer to develop specific disaster scenarios. RASOR overlays archived and near real-time very high resolution optical and radar satellite data, combined with in situ data for both global and local applications. A scenario-driven query system allows users to project situations into the future and model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event. Applications with regards to different case study sites are presented in order to illustrate the platform potential.

  5. Allergy reduces the risk of meningioma: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Peng-fei; Ji, Wen-Jun; Zhang, Xiao-hui; Li, Shou-wei; Yan, Chang-Xiang

    2017-01-01

    Meningiomas are the most common brain tumours; however, little is known regarding their aetiology. The data are inconsistent concerning atopic disease and the risk of developing meningioma. Thus, we conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the association between allergic conditions and the risk of developing meningioma. A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed and Web of SCI from Jan 1979 to Feb 2016. Two investigators independently selected the relevant articles according to the inclusion criteria. Eight case-control studies and 2 cohort studies were included in the final analysis, comprising 5,679 meningioma cases and 55,621 control subjects. Compared with no history of allergy, the pooled odds ratio (OR) for allergic conditions was 0.81 (0.70–0.94) for meningioma in a random-effects meta-analysis. Inverse correlations of meningioma occurrence were also identified for asthma and eczema, in which the pooled ORs were 0.78 (0.70–0.86) and 0.78 (0.69–0.87), respectively. A reduced risk of meningioma occurrence was identified in hay fever; however, the association was weak (0.88, 95% CI = 0.78–0.99). The source of this heterogeneity could be the various confounding variables in individual studies. Overall, the current meta-analysis indicated that allergy reduced the risk of developing meningiomas. Large cohort studies are required to investigate this relationship. PMID:28071746

  6. Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

    PubMed

    Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

    2005-08-31

    Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

  7. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    INTRODUCTION: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR CUMULATIVE RISK

    Hugh A. Barton1 and Carey N. Pope2
    1US EPA, Office of Research and Development, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
    2Department of...

  8. Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks--heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm.

    PubMed

    Prpich, G; Dagonneau, J; Rocks, S A; Lickorish, F; Pollard, S J T

    2013-10-01

    We summarise our recent efforts on the policy-level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below.

  9. An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risks in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Bruijn, K. M.; Diermanse, F. L. M.; Beckers, J. V. L.

    2014-02-01

    This paper discusses the new method developed to analyse flood risks in river deltas. Risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and since the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risks must be taken into account. A Monte Carlo based flood risk analysis framework for policy making was developed, which considers both storm surges and river flood waves and includes hydrodynamic interaction effects on flood risks. It was applied to analyse societal flood fatality risks (the probability of events with more than N fatalities) in the Rhine-Meuse delta.

  10. An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risk in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Bruijn, K. M.; Diermanse, F. L. M.; Beckers, J. V. L.

    2014-10-01

    This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risk must be taken into account. This paper presents a Monte Carlo-based flood risk analysis framework for policy making, which considers both storm surges and river flood waves and includes effects from hydrodynamic interaction on flood risk. It was applied to analyse societal flood fatality risk in the Rhine-Meuse delta.

  11. Safety risk analysis of an innovative environmental technology.

    PubMed

    Parnell, G S; Frimpon, M; Barnes, J; Kloeber, J M; Deckro, R E; Jackson, J A

    2001-02-01

    The authors describe a decision and risk analysis performed for the cleanup of a large Department of Energy mixed-waste subsurface disposal area governed by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). In a previous study, the authors worked with the site decision makers, state regulators, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regional regulators to develop a CERCLA-based multiobjective decision analysis value model and used the model to perform a screening analysis of 28 remedial alternatives. The analysis results identified an innovative technology, in situ vitrification, with high effectiveness versus cost. Since this technology had not been used on this scale before, the major uncertainties were contaminant migration and pressure buildup. Pressure buildup was a safety concern due to the potential risks to worker safety. With the help of environmental technology experts remedial alternative changes were identified to mitigate the concerns about contaminant migration and pressure buildup. The analysis results showed that the probability of an event with a risk to worker safety had been significantly reduced. Based on these results, site decision makers have refocused their test program to examine in situ vitrification and have continued the use of the CERCLA-based decision analysis methodology to analyze remedial alternatives.

  12. Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

    PubMed

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

    2009-04-01

    Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

  13. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  14. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  15. Hazardous materials transportation: a risk-analysis-based routing methodology.

    PubMed

    Leonelli, P; Bonvicini, S; Spadoni, G

    2000-01-07

    This paper introduces a new methodology based on risk analysis for the selection of the best route for the transport of a hazardous substance. In order to perform this optimisation, the network is considered as a graph composed by nodes and arcs; each arc is assigned a cost per unit vehicle travelling on it and a vehicle capacity. After short discussion about risk measures suitable for linear risk sources, the arc capacities are introduced by comparison between the societal and individual risk measures of each arc with hazardous materials transportation risk criteria; then arc costs are defined in order to take into account both transportation out-of-pocket expenses and risk-related costs. The optimisation problem can thus be formulated as a 'minimum cost flow problem', which consists of determining for a specific hazardous substance the cheapest flow distribution, honouring the arc capacities, from the origin nodes to the destination nodes. The main features of the optimisation procedure, implemented on the computer code OPTIPATH, are presented. Test results about shipments of ammonia are discussed and finally further research developments are proposed.

  16. Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

  17. Dietary Patterns and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Pei-Ying; Shu, Long; Shen, Shan-Shan; Chen, Xu-Jiao; Zhang, Xiao-Yan

    2017-01-01

    A number of studies have examined the associations between dietary patterns and pancreatic cancer risk, but the findings have been inconclusive. Herein, we conducted this meta-analysis to assess the associations between dietary patterns and the risk of pancreatic cancer. MEDLINE (provided by the National Library of Medicine) and EBSCO (Elton B. Stephens Company) databases were searched for relevant articles published up to May 2016 that identified common dietary patterns. Thirty-two studies met the inclusion criteria and were finally included in this meta-analysis. A reduced risk of pancreatic cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest categories of healthy patterns (odds ratio, OR = 0.86; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.77–0.95; p = 0.004) and light–moderate drinking patterns (OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.83–0.98; p = 0.02). There was evidence of an increased risk for pancreatic cancer in the highest compared with the lowest categories of western-type pattern (OR = 1.24; 95% CI: 1.06–1.45; p = 0.008) and heavy drinking pattern (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.10–1.48; p = 0.002). The results of this meta-analysis demonstrate that healthy and light–moderate drinking patterns may decrease the risk of pancreatic cancer, whereas western-type and heavy drinking patterns may increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. Additional prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings. PMID:28067765

  18. Analysis of automated highway system risks and uncertainties. Volume 5

    SciTech Connect

    Sicherman, A.

    1994-10-01

    This volume describes a risk analysis performed to help identify important Automated Highway System (AHS) deployment uncertainties and quantify their effect on costs and benefits for a range of AHS deployment scenarios. The analysis identified a suite of key factors affecting vehicle and roadway costs, capacities and market penetrations for alternative AHS deployment scenarios. A systematic protocol was utilized for obtaining expert judgments of key factor uncertainties in the form of subjective probability percentile assessments. Based on these assessments, probability distributions on vehicle and roadway costs, capacity and market penetration were developed for the different scenarios. The cost/benefit risk methodology and analysis provide insights by showing how uncertainties in key factors translate into uncertainties in summary cost/benefit indices.

  19. Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

    PubMed Central

    Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

    2015-01-01

    Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

  20. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  1. Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

    2016-04-01

    Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

  2. Risk-Based Measurement and Analysis: Application to Software Security

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-02-01

    Risk Diagnostic ( MRD ) 12 4.1 Driver Identification 12 4.1.1 Mission 12 4.1.2 Objectives 13 4.1.3 Drivers 14 4.1.4 Deriving a Set of Drivers 15...4.4 Mission Risk 21 4.5 The MRD : Key Tasks and Steps 22 5 Integrated Measurement and Analysis Framework (IMAF) 23 5.1 Using the IMAF to Direct...Identification 27 6.2 Standard Mapping 28 6.3 Driver Modeling 29 7 Summary and Next Steps 32 7.1 The IMAF and the MRD 32 7.2 Additional Research

  3. Risk Interfaces to Support Integrated Systems Analysis and Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objectives for systems analysis capability: Develop integrated understanding of how a complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. Why? Support development of integrated solutions that prevent unwanted outcomes (Implementable approaches to minimize mission resources(mass, power, crew time, etc.)); Support development of tools for autonomy (need for exploration) (Assess and maintain resilience -individuals, teams, integrated system). Output of this exercise: -Representation of interfaces based on Human System Risk Board (HSRB) Risk Summary information and simple status based on Human Research Roadmap; Consolidated HSRB information applied to support communication; Point-of-Departure for HRP Element planning; Ability to track and communicate status of collaborations. 4

  4. Hybrid Safety Analysis Using Functional and Risk Decompositions

    SciTech Connect

    COOPER,J. ARLIN; JOHNSON,ALICE J.; WERNER,PAUL W.

    2000-07-15

    Safety analysis of complex systems depends on decomposing the systems into manageable subsystems, from which analysis can be rolled back up to the system level. The authors have found that there is no single best way to decompose; in fact hybrid combinations of decompositions are generally necessary to achieve optimum results. They are currently using two backbone coordinated decompositions--functional and risk, supplemented by other types, such as organizational. An objective is to derive metrics that can be used to efficiently and accurately aggregate information through analysis, to contribute toward assessing system safety, and to contribute information necessary for defensible decisions.

  5. Methodology for risk analysis based on atmospheric dispersion modelling from nuclear risk sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.; Rigina, O.

    2003-04-01

    The main purpose of this multidisciplinary study is to develop a methodology for complex nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and to test it on example of estimation of nuclear risk to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident at a nuclear risk site (NRS). The main focus of the paper is the methodology for the evaluation of the atmospheric transport and deposition of radioactive pollutants from NRSs. The method developed for this evaluation is derived from a probabilistic point of view. The main question we are trying to answer is: What is the probability for radionuclide atmospheric transport and impact to different neighbouring regions and countries in case of an accident at an NPP? To answer this question we applied a number of different tools: (i) Trajectory Modelling - to calculate multiyear forward trajectories originating over the locations of selected risk sites; (ii) Dispersion Modelling - for long-term simulation and case studies of radionuclide transport from hypothetical accidental releases at NRSs; (iii) Cluster Analysis - to identify atmospheric transport pathways from NRSs; (iv) Probability Fields Analysis - to construct annual, monthly, and seasonal NRS impact indicators to identify the most impacted geographical regions; (v) Specific Case Studies - to estimate consequences for the environment and the populations after a hypothetical accident; (vi) Vulnerability Evaluation to Radioactive Deposition - to describe its persistence in the ecosystems with a focus to the transfer of certain radionuclides into the food chains of key importance for the intake and exposure for a whole population and for certain population groups; (vii) Risk Evaluation and Mapping - to analyse socio-economical consequences for different geographical areas and various population groups taking into account social-geophysical factors and probabilities, and using demographic databases based on GIS analysis.

  6. Development of a preliminary framework for informing the risk analysis and risk management of nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Morgan, Kara

    2005-12-01

    Decisions are often made even when there is uncertainty about the possible outcomes. However, methods for making decisions with uncertainty in the problem framework are scarce. Presently, safety assessment for a product containing engineered nano-scale particles is a very poorly structured problem. Many fields of study may inform the safety assessment of such particles (e.g., ultrafines, aerosols, debris from medical devices), but engineered nano-scale particles may present such unique properties that extrapolating from other types of studies may introduce, and not resolve, uncertainty. Some screening-level health effects studies conducted specifically on engineered nano-scale materials have been published and many more are underway. However, it is clear that the extent of research needed to fully and confidently understand the potential for health or environmental risk from engineered nano-scale particles may take years or even decades to complete. In spite of the great uncertainty, there is existing research and experience among researchers that can help to provide a taxonomy of particle properties, perhaps indicating a relative likelihood of risk, in order to prioritize nanoparticle risk research. To help structure this problem, a framework was developed from expert interviews of nanotechnology researchers. The analysis organizes the information as a system based on the risk assessment framework, in order to support the decision about safety. In the long term, this framework is designed to incorporate research results as they are generated, and therefore serve as a tool for estimating the potential for human health and environmental risk.

  7. Groundwater-risk analysis of New York utilizing GIS technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hillenbrand, Charles John, III

    Using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, data layers can be processed and analyzed to produce a regional groundwater-risk grid of New York State (NYS). GIS can be used to assess the potential to introduce contaminants at the ground surface, and assess the potential for the contaminants to migrate through the vadose zone and be introduced to an aquifer at the water-table. The potential to introduce contaminants to the ground surface was assessed utilizing existing database information in combination with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Resolution Land Classification (MRLC) land use grid. The databases allowed an analysis of contaminant association with Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes, risk evaluation of the contaminants using groundwater intake values protective of human health, the development of SIC code-risk values, the construction of a SIC code-risked facility point coverage, and the construction of a land use-risk grid; this grid assesses the potential to introduce contaminants to the ground surface. Aquifer susceptibility was determined by analyzing vadose zone residence time assuming saturated conditions. Vadose zone residence time is a measure of the vadose zone's ability to attenuate and retard the migration of contaminants. Existing data layers were processed to produce a depth to water-table (vadose zone thickness) grid. Existing GIS data layers of soil, surficial geology and bedrock geology, along with review of literature and pump/slug test data, enabled the creation of thickness, porosity and vertical hydraulic conductivity grids for the three considered components of the vadose zone. The average linear velocity was then calculated for each vadose zone component by dividing their hydraulic conductivity grid by their respective porosity grid. The thickness grid of each vadose zone component was then divided by their respective average linear velocity grid to produce vadose zone residence time grids. The sum

  8. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards

    PubMed Central

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional ‘Standard I’, which has a paternalistic orientation, and ‘Standard II’, established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being. PMID:27475751

  9. Risk analysis of landslide disaster in Ponorogo, East Java, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koesuma, S.; Saido, A. P.; Fukuda, Y.

    2016-11-01

    Ponorogo is one of regency in South-West of East Java Province, Indonesia, where located in subduction zone between Eurasia and Australia plate tectonics. It has a lot of mountain area which is disaster-prone area for landslide. We have collected landslide data in 305 villages in Ponorogo and make it to be Hazards Index. Then we also calculate Vulnerability Index, Economic Loss index, Environmental Damage Index and Capacity Index. The risk analysis map is composed of three components H (Hazards), V (Vulnerability, Economic Loss index, Environmental Damage Index) and C (Capacity Index). The method is based on regulations of National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB) number 02/2012 and number 03/2012. It has three classes of risk index, i.e. Low, Medium and High. Ponorogo city has a medium landslide risk index.

  10. Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-10-01

    Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix.

  11. [Risk analysis in radiation therapy: state of the art].

    PubMed

    Mazeron, R; Aguini, N; Deutsch, É

    2013-01-01

    Five radiotherapy accidents, from which two serial, occurred in France from 2003 to 2007, led the authorities to establish a roadmap for securing radiotherapy. By analogy with industrial processes, a technical decision form the French Nuclear Safety Authority in 2008 requires radiotherapy professionals to conduct analyzes of risks to patients. The process of risk analysis had been tested in three pilot centers, before the occurrence of accidents, with the creation of cells feedback. The regulation now requires all radiotherapy services to have similar structures to collect precursor events, incidents and accidents, to perform analyzes following rigorous methods and to initiate corrective actions. At the same time, it is also required to conduct analyzes a priori, less intuitive, and usually require the help of a quality engineer, with the aim of reducing risk. The progressive implementation of these devices is part of an overall policy to improve the quality of radiotherapy. Since 2007, no radiotherapy accident was reported.

  12. Risk factors for rape re-victimisation: a retrospective analysis.

    PubMed

    Lurie, S; Boaz, M; Golan, A

    2013-11-01

    Sexual re-victimisation refers to a pattern in which the sexual assault victim has an increased risk of subsequent victimisation relative to an individual who was never victimised. The purpose of our study was to identify risks factors for a second rape, the severest form of sexual re-victimisation. All rape victims treated at the First Regional Israeli Center for Sexual Assault Victims between October 2000 and July 2010 were included in this retrospective analysis. We compared characteristics of 53 rape victims who were victimised twice to those of 1,939 rape victims who were victimised once. We identified several risk factors for a second rape, which can be used in prevention programmes. These are: psychiatric background, history of social services involvement, adulthood, non-virginity and minority ethnicity.

  13. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-09-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional 'Standard I', which has a paternalistic orientation, and 'Standard II', established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being.

  14. Risk assessment and its application to flight safety analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Keese, D.L.; Barton, W.R.

    1989-12-01

    Potentially hazardous test activities have historically been a part of Sandia National Labs mission to design, develop, and test new weapons systems. These test activities include high speed air drops for parachute development, sled tests for component and system level studies, multiple stage rocket experiments, and artillery firings of various projectiles. Due to the nature of Sandia's test programs, the risk associated with these activities can never be totally eliminated. However, a consistent set of policies should be available to provide guidance into the level of risk that is acceptable in these areas. This report presents a general set of guidelines for addressing safety issues related to rocket flight operations at Sandia National Laboratories. Even though the majority of this report deals primarily with rocket flight safety, these same principles could be applied to other hazardous test activities. The basic concepts of risk analysis have a wide range of applications into many of Sandia's current operations. 14 refs., 1 tab.

  15. Meta-analysis of osteoporosis: fracture risks, medication and treatment.

    PubMed

    Liu, W; Yang, L-H; Kong, X-C; An, L-K; Wang, R

    2015-08-01

    Osteoporosis is a brittle bone disease that can cause fractures mostly in older men and women. Meta-analysis is the statistical method which is applied in the frame work for the assessment of results obtained from various research studies conducted in several years. A meta-analysis of osteoporotic fracture risk with medication non-adherence has been described to assess the bone fracture risk among patients non-adherent versus adherent to therapy for osteoporosis by many researchers. Osteoporosis therapy reduces the risk of fracture in clinical trials, and real-world adherence to therapy which is suboptimal and can reduce the effectiveness of intervention. The methods of Medline, Embase, and CINAHL were literature searched for these observational studies from year 1998 to 2009, and up to 2015. The results of meta-analysis of osteoporosis research on fractures of postmenopausal women and men are presented. The use of bisphosphonate therapy for osteoporosis has been described with other drugs. The authors, design, studies (women %), years (data), follow-up (wks), fractures (types), and compliance or persistence results from years 2004 to 2009 from are shown in a brief table. The meta-analysis studies have been reviewed from other researchers on osteoporosis and fractures, medications and treatments.

  16. Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lalk, Thomas R.; Spence, Cliff A.

    2003-01-01

    A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

  17. New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

  18. Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

    2016-01-01

    Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09–1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13–1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias—cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40–5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01–1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

  19. Working session 5: Operational aspects and risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cizelj, L.; Donoghue, J.

    1997-02-01

    A general observation is that both operational aspects and risk analysis cannot be adequately discussed without information presented in other sessions. Some overlap of conclusions and recommendations is therefore to be expected. Further, it was assumed that recommendations concerning improvements in some related topics were generated by other sessions and are not repeated here. These include: (1) Knowledge on degradation mechanisms (initiation, progression, and failure). (2) Modeling of degradation (initiation, progression, and failure). (3) Capabilities of NDE methods. (4) Preventive maintenance and repair. One should note here, however, that all of these directly affect both operational and risk aspects of affected plants. A list of conclusions and recommendations is based on available presentations and discussions addressing risk and operational experience. The authors aimed at reaching as broad a consensus as possible. It should be noted here that there is no strict delineation between operational and safety aspects of degradation of steam generator tubes. This is caused by different risk perceptions in different countries/societies. The conclusions and recommendations were divided into four broad groups: human reliability; leakage monitoring; risk impact; and consequence assessment.

  20. An Analysis of Discounting Procedures and Risk Analysis Techniques for Use in the Department of Defense.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-12-01

    risky investments by an amount equal to the cost of risk bearing. Thus the true opportunity cost of the private invesments foregone is the value placed...Discount Rate," Water Resources Research, Vol. 5: 947-957 (October 1969). 19. Hertz, David B. "Risk Analysis in Capital Invesement ," Harvard Business Review

  1. Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

  2. Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

    1986-01-01

    In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

  3. Application of Risk Analysis in the Acquisition of Major Weapon Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-08-01

    An implementation of a statistical approach to cost risk analysis is developed in this paper. A general discussion of risk analysis is presented to...familiarize the price analysis with the concepts involved and then forms are presented which allow for the implementation of risk analysis . Appropriate...definitions are given along with a step-by-step procedure. The results of the risk analysis are related to the effect of incentive contracts and several examples are presented. (Author)

  4. Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems: Modeling Individual Steps of a Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Shah, Anuj; Castleton, Karl J.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

    2004-06-01

    The study of the release and effects of chemicals in the environment and their associated risks to humans is central to public and private decision making. FRAMES 1.X, Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems, is a systems modeling software platform, developed by PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, that helps scientists study the release and effects of chemicals on a source to outcome basis, create environmental models for similar risk assessment and management problems. The unique aspect of FRAMES is to dynamically introduce software modules representing individual components of a risk assessment (e.g., source release of contaminants, fate and transport in various environmental media, exposure, etc.) within a software framework, manipulate their attributes and run simulations to obtain results. This paper outlines the fundamental constituents of FRAMES 2.X, an enhanced version of FRAMES 1.X, that greatly improve the ability of the module developers to “plug” their self-developed software modules into the system. The basic design, the underlying principles and a discussion of the guidelines for module developers are presented.

  5. Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Montibeller, Gilberto; von Winterfeldt, Detlof

    2015-07-01

    Behavioral decision research has demonstrated that judgments and decisions of ordinary people and experts are subject to numerous biases. Decision and risk analysis were designed to improve judgments and decisions and to overcome many of these biases. However, when eliciting model components and parameters from decisionmakers or experts, analysts often face the very biases they are trying to help overcome. When these inputs are biased they can seriously reduce the quality of the model and resulting analysis. Some of these biases are due to faulty cognitive processes; some are due to motivations for preferred analysis outcomes. This article identifies the cognitive and motivational biases that are relevant for decision and risk analysis because they can distort analysis inputs and are difficult to correct. We also review and provide guidance about the existing debiasing techniques to overcome these biases. In addition, we describe some biases that are less relevant because they can be corrected by using logic or decomposing the elicitation task. We conclude the article with an agenda for future research.

  6. Global Human Settlement Analysis for Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pesaresi, M.; Ehrlich, D.; Ferri, S.; Florczyk, A.; Freire, S.; Haag, F.; Halkia, M.; Julea, A. M.; Kemper, T.; Soille, P.

    2015-04-01

    The Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) is supported by the European Commission, Joint Research Center (JRC) in the frame of his institutional research activities. Scope of GHSL is developing, testing and applying the technologies and analysis methods integrated in the JRC Global Human Settlement analysis platform for applications in support to global disaster risk reduction initiatives (DRR) and regional analysis in the frame of the European Cohesion policy. GHSL analysis platform uses geo-spatial data, primarily remotely sensed and population. GHSL also cooperates with the Group on Earth Observation on SB-04-Global Urban Observation and Information, and various international partners andWorld Bank and United Nations agencies. Some preliminary results integrating global human settlement information extracted from Landsat data records of the last 40 years and population data are presented.

  7. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to...

  8. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to...

  9. 7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to...

  10. Risk-management and risk-analysis-based decision tools for attacks on electric power.

    PubMed

    Simonoff, Jeffrey S; Restrepo, Carlos E; Zimmerman, Rae

    2007-06-01

    Incident data about disruptions to the electric power grid provide useful information that can be used as inputs into risk management policies in the energy sector for disruptions from a variety of origins, including terrorist attacks. This article uses data from the Disturbance Analysis Working Group (DAWG) database, which is maintained by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), to look at incidents over time in the United States and Canada for the period 1990-2004. Negative binomial regression, logistic regression, and weighted least squares regression are used to gain a better understanding of how these disturbances varied over time and by season during this period, and to analyze how characteristics such as number of customers lost and outage duration are related to different characteristics of the outages. The results of the models can be used as inputs to construct various scenarios to estimate potential outcomes of electric power outages, encompassing the risks, consequences, and costs of such outages.

  11. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    PubMed

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009.

  12. Cascade vulnerability for risk analysis of water infrastructure.

    PubMed

    Sitzenfrei, R; Mair, M; Möderl, M; Rauch, W

    2011-01-01

    One of the major tasks in urban water management is failure-free operation for at least most of the time. Accordingly, the reliability of the network systems in urban water management has a crucial role. The failure of a component in these systems impacts potable water distribution and urban drainage. Therefore, water distribution and urban drainage systems are categorized as critical infrastructure. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is likely to experience harm induced by perturbation or stress. However, for risk assessment, we usually assume that events and failures are singular and independent, i.e. several simultaneous events and cascading events are unconsidered. Although failures can be causally linked, a simultaneous consideration in risk analysis is hardly considered. To close this gap, this work introduces the term cascade vulnerability for water infrastructure. Cascade vulnerability accounts for cascading and simultaneous events. Following this definition, cascade risk maps are a merger of hazard and cascade vulnerability maps. In this work cascade vulnerability maps for water distribution systems and urban drainage systems based on the 'Achilles-Approach' are introduced and discussed. It is shown, that neglecting cascading effects results in significant underestimation of risk scenarios.

  13. Sensitivity analysis of a two-dimensional probabilistic risk assessment model using analysis of variance.

    PubMed

    Mokhtari, Amirhossein; Frey, H Christopher

    2005-12-01

    This article demonstrates application of sensitivity analysis to risk assessment models with two-dimensional probabilistic frameworks that distinguish between variability and uncertainty. A microbial food safety process risk (MFSPR) model is used as a test bed. The process of identifying key controllable inputs and key sources of uncertainty using sensitivity analysis is challenged by typical characteristics of MFSPR models such as nonlinearity, thresholds, interactions, and categorical inputs. Among many available sensitivity analysis methods, analysis of variance (ANOVA) is evaluated in comparison to commonly used methods based on correlation coefficients. In a two-dimensional risk model, the identification of key controllable inputs that can be prioritized with respect to risk management is confounded by uncertainty. However, as shown here, ANOVA provided robust insights regarding controllable inputs most likely to lead to effective risk reduction despite uncertainty. ANOVA appropriately selected the top six important inputs, while correlation-based methods provided misleading insights. Bootstrap simulation is used to quantify uncertainty in ranks of inputs due to sampling error. For the selected sample size, differences in F values of 60% or more were associated with clear differences in rank order between inputs. Sensitivity analysis results identified inputs related to the storage of ground beef servings at home as the most important. Risk management recommendations are suggested in the form of a consumer advisory for better handling and storage practices.

  14. Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Möderl, Michael; Rauch, Wolfgang

    2011-12-01

    The presented spatial risk assessment method allows for managing critical network infrastructure in urban areas under abnormal and future conditions caused e.g., by terrorist attacks, infrastructure deterioration or climate change. For the spatial risk assessment, vulnerability maps for critical network infrastructure are merged with hazard maps for an interfering process. Vulnerability maps are generated using a spatial sensitivity analysis of network transport models to evaluate performance decrease under investigated thread scenarios. Thereby parameters are varied according to the specific impact of a particular threat scenario. Hazard maps are generated with a geographical information system using raster data of the same threat scenario derived from structured interviews and cluster analysis of events in the past. The application of the spatial risk assessment is exemplified by means of a case study for a water supply system, but the principal concept is applicable likewise to other critical network infrastructure. The aim of the approach is to help decision makers in choosing zones for preventive measures.

  15. A risk analysis of winter navigation in Finnish sea areas.

    PubMed

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub; Kujala, Pentti

    2015-06-01

    Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in north-European sea areas. In Finnish waters, the smooth flow of maritime traffic and safety of vessel navigation during the winter period are managed through the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system (FSWNS). This article focuses on accident risks in winter navigation operations, beginning with a brief outline of the FSWNS. The study analyses a hazard identification model of winter navigation and reviews accident data extracted from four winter periods. These are adopted as a basis for visualizing the risks in winter navigation operations. The results reveal that experts consider ship independent navigation in ice conditions the most complex navigational operation, which is confirmed by accident data analysis showing that the operation constitutes the type of navigation with the highest number of accidents reported. The severity of the accidents during winter navigation is mainly categorized as less serious. Collision is the most typical accident in ice navigation and general cargo the type of vessel most frequently involved in these accidents. Consolidated ice, ice ridges and ice thickness between 15 and 40cm represent the most common ice conditions in which accidents occur. Thus, the analysis presented in this article establishes the key elements for identifying the operation types which would benefit most from further safety engineering and safety or risk management development.

  16. Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP): Assessing Risk in Complex Environments

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-09-01

    5 1.6 Target Audience... 5 1.7 Focus on Risk .................................................................................. 6 2 Defining Risk...20 CMU/SEI-2005-TN-032 4.4 Extrinsic and Intrinsic Risk ............................................................. 21 5 Operational Risk in

  17. LAVA (Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology): A conceptual framework for automated risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.; Phillips, J.R.; Tisinger, R.M.; Brown, D.C.; FitzGerald, P.D.

    1986-01-01

    At Los Alamos National Laboratory, we have developed an original methodology for performing risk analyses on subject systems characterized by a general set of asset categories, a general spectrum of threats, a definable system-specific set of safeguards protecting the assets from the threats, and a general set of outcomes resulting from threats exploiting weaknesses in the safeguards system. The Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology (LAVA) models complex systems having large amounts of ''soft'' information about both the system itself and occurrences related to the system. Its structure lends itself well to automation on a portable computer, making it possible to analyze numerous similar but geographically separated installations consistently and in as much depth as the subject system warrants. LAVA is based on hierarchical systems theory, event trees, fuzzy sets, natural-language processing, decision theory, and utility theory. LAVA's framework is a hierarchical set of fuzzy event trees that relate the results of several embedded (or sub-) analyses: a vulnerability assessment providing information about the presence and efficacy of system safeguards, a threat analysis providing information about static (background) and dynamic (changing) threat components coupled with an analysis of asset ''attractiveness'' to the dynamic threat, and a consequence analysis providing information about the outcome spectrum's severity measures and impact values. By using LAVA, we have modeled our widely used computer security application as well as LAVA/CS systems for physical protection, transborder data flow, contract awards, and property management. It is presently being applied for modeling risk management in embedded systems, survivability systems, and weapons systems security. LAVA is especially effective in modeling subject systems that include a large human component.

  18. From network analysis to risk analysis--An approach to risk-based surveillance for bovine tuberculosis in Minnesota, US.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro-Lima, J; Enns, E A; Thompson, B; Craft, M E; Wells, S J

    2015-03-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) was first detected in 2005 in cattle in northwestern Minnesota (MN) through slaughter surveillance. By the end of 2008, 12 cattle herds were infected with bTB, and the main cause for infection was determined to be the movement of infected animals between herds. Bovine tuberculosis was contained in a smaller area in northwestern Minnesota classified as modified accredited (MA), corresponding to a prevalence inferior to 0.1% in cattle. From January 2008 to 2011, all cattle movements within the bTB MA were recorded electronically. The primary objectives of this study were to characterize cattle movements within this region and identify cattle herds with higher risk of bTB introduction based on network parameters and known risk factors from the published literature. During the period that data was collected, 57,460 cattle were moved in 3762 movements corresponding to permits issued to 682 premises, mostly representing private farms, sale yards, slaughter facilities and county or state fairs. Although sale yards represented less than 2% of the premises (nodes), 60% of the movements were to or from a sale yard. The network showed an overall density of 0.4%, a clustering coefficient of 14.6% and a betweenness centralization index of 12.7%, reflecting the low connectivity of this cattle network. The degree distribution showed that 20% of nodes performed 90% of the movements. Farms were ranked based on the total risk score and divided into high, medium, and low risk groups based on the score and its variability. The higher risk group included 14% (n=50) of the farms, corresponding to 80% of the cumulative risk for the farms in the bTB area. This analysis provides a baseline description about the contact structure of cattle movements in an area previously infected with bTB and develops a framework for a targeted surveillance approach for bTB to support future surveillance decisions.

  19. Risk analysis and the law: international law, the World Trade Organization, Codex Alimentarius and national legislation.

    PubMed

    Horton, L R

    2001-12-01

    This paper discusses the place of risk analysis in international trade from a US perspective, through looking at the activities of the World Trade Organization and the Codex Alimentarius Commission. After examining what the trade agreements say about risk analysis and how international bodies are advancing and using risk analysis, the paper goes on to assess how risk analysis is used at a national level. Finally, recommendations are made for strengthening international food safety initiatives.

  20. Systemic Risk and Complex Systems: A Graph-Theory Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lautier, Delphine; Raynaud, Franck

    This chapter summarizes several empirical studies in finance, undertaken through the prism of the graph theory. In these studies, we built graphs in order to investigate integration and systemic risk in derivative markets. Several classes of underlying assets (i.e. energy products, metals, financial assets, agricultural products) are considered, on a twelve-year period. In such a high dimensional analysis, the graph theory enables us to understand the dynamic behavior of our price system. The dimension of the fully connected graph being high, we rely on a specific type of graphs: Minimum Spanning Trees (MSTs). Such a tree is especially interesting for the study of systemic risk: it can be assimilated into the shortest and most probable path for the propagation of a price shock. We first examine the topology of the MSTs. Then, given the time dependency of our correlation-based graphs, we study their evolution over time and their stability.

  1. [Risk Factor Analysis of Pneumonia after Cardiovascular Surgery].

    PubMed

    Maekawa, Yoshiyuki; Abe, Shuichi; Nakamura, Ken; Uchida, Tetsuro; Sadahiro, Mitsuaki; Morikane, Keita

    2016-08-01

    Pneumonia is a major and life-threatening complication after cardiovascular surgery. The objective of our study was to describe epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and risk factors of pneumonia after cardiovascular surgery. From January 2007 to December 2011, 511 consecutive patients (age 67.3±11.9;336 men, 175 women) were enrolled in this study. Pneumonia was diagnosed according to Centers of Disease Control and Prevention surveillance criteria for healthcare associated infection. Data collection included preoperative, intraoperative, and post-operative variables. The overall incidence of pneumonia was 72 cases(14.0%). The mortality in pneumonia group was significantly higher than that in non-pneumonia group (16.6% vs 4.3%, Odds ratio 4.4 p<0.001). Multi-logistic analysis revealed that elderly patient, preoperative congestive heart failure, preoperative hemodialysis, and operation of the thoracic aorta were independent risk factors for pneumonia after cardiovascular surgery.

  2. Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks imposes additional challenges for clinical investigators in that hazard function (the rate) has no one-to-one link to the cumulative incidence function (CIF, the risk). CIF is of particular interest and can be estimated non-parametrically with the use cuminc() function. This function also allows for group comparison and visualization of estimated CIF. The effect of covariates on cause-specific hazard can be explored using conventional Cox proportional hazard model by treating competing events as censoring. However, the effect on hazard cannot be directly linked to the effect on CIF because there is no one-to-one correspondence between hazard and cumulative incidence. Fine-Gray model directly models the covariate effect on CIF and it reports subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR). However, SHR only provide information on the ordering of CIF curves at different levels of covariates, it has no practical interpretation as HR in the absence of competing risks. Fine-Gray model can be fit with crr() function shipped with the cmprsk package. Time-varying covariates are allowed in the crr() function, which is specified by cov2 and tf arguments. Predictions and visualization of CIF for subjects with given covariate values are allowed for crr object. Alternatively, competing risk models can be fit with riskRegression package by employing different link functions between covariates and outcomes. The assumption of proportionality can be checked by testing statistical significance of interaction terms involving failure time. Schoenfeld residuals provide another way to check model assumption. PMID:28251126

  3. A performance-based approach to landslide risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romeo, R. W.

    2009-04-01

    An approach for the risk assessment based on a probabilistic analysis of the performance of structures threatened by landslides is shown and discussed. The risk is a possible loss due to the occurrence of a potentially damaging event. Analytically the risk is the probability convolution of hazard, which defines the frequency of occurrence of the event (i.e., the demand), and fragility that defines the capacity of the system to withstand the event given its characteristics (i.e., severity) and those of the exposed goods (vulnerability), that is: Risk=p(D>=d|S,V) The inequality sets a damage (or loss) threshold beyond which the system's performance is no longer met. Therefore a consistent approach to risk assessment should: 1) adopt a probabilistic model which takes into account all the uncertainties of the involved variables (capacity and demand), 2) follow a performance approach based on given loss or damage thresholds. The proposed method belongs to the category of the semi-empirical ones: the theoretical component is given by the probabilistic capacity-demand model; the empirical component is given by the observed statistical behaviour of structures damaged by landslides. Two landslide properties alone are required: the area-extent and the type (or kinematism). All other properties required to determine the severity of landslides (such as depth, speed and frequency) are derived via probabilistic methods. The severity (or intensity) of landslides, in terms of kinetic energy, is the demand of resistance; the resistance capacity is given by the cumulative distribution functions of the limit state performance (fragility functions) assessed via damage surveys and cards compilation. The investigated limit states are aesthetic (of nominal concern alone), functional (interruption of service) and structural (economic and social losses). The damage probability is the probabilistic convolution of hazard (the probability mass function of the frequency of occurrence of given

  4. Approaches to uncertainty analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Bohn, M.P.; Wheeler, T.A.; Parry, G.W.

    1988-01-01

    An integral part of any probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is the performance of an uncertainty analysis to quantify the uncertainty in the point estimates of the risk measures considered. While a variety of classical methods of uncertainty analysis exist, application of these methods and developing new techniques consistent with existing PRA data bases and the need for expert (subjective) input has been an area of considerable interest since the pioneering Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) in 1975. This report presents the results of a critical review of existing methods for performing uncertainty analyses for PRAs, with special emphasis on identifying data base limitations on the various methods. Both classical and Baysian approaches have been examined. This work was funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of its ongoing full-scope PRA of the LaSalle nuclear power station. Thus in addition to the review, this report contains recommendations for a suitable uncertainty analysis methodology for the LaSalle PRA.

  5. Radiological risk analysis of potential SP-100 space mission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Bartram, B.W.; Weitzberg, A.

    1988-08-19

    This report presents a radiological risk analysis of three representative space mission scenarios utilizing a fission reactor. The mission profiles considered are: a high-altitude mission, launched by a TITAN IV launch vehicle, boosted by chemical upper stages into its operational orbit, a interplanetary nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) mission, started directly from a shuttle parking orbit, a low-altitude mission, launched by the Shuttle and boosted by a chemical stage to its operational orbit, with subsequent disposal boost after operation. 21 refs., 12 figs., 7 tabs.

  6. Hysterectomy and kidney cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Karami, Sara; Daugherty, Sarah E; Purdue, Mark P

    2014-01-15

    Recent cohort findings suggest that women who underwent a hysterectomy have an elevated relative risk of kidney cancer, although evidence from past studies has been inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published cohort and case-control studies to summarize the epidemiologic evidence investigating hysterectomy and kidney cancer. Studies published from 1950 through 2012 were identified through a search of PubMed and of references from relevant publications. Meta-analyses were conducted using random-effects models to estimate summary relative risks (SRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for hysterectomy, age at hysterectomy (<45, 45+ years) and time since hysterectomy (<10, 10+ years). The SRR for hysterectomy and kidney cancer for all published studies (seven cohort, six case-control) was 1.29 (95% CI, 1.16-1.43), with no evidence of between-study heterogeneity or publication bias. The summary effect was slightly weaker, although still significant, for cohorts (SRR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.11-1.42) compared with case-control findings (1.37; 95% CI, 1.09-1.73) and was observed irrespective of age at hysterectomy, time since the procedure and model adjustment for body mass index, smoking status and hypertension. Women undergoing a hysterectomy have an approximate 30% increased relative risk of subsequent kidney cancer. Additional research is needed to elucidate the biological mechanisms underlying this association.

  7. Metabolic Disease Risk in Children by Salivary Biomarker Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Goodson, J. Max; Kantarci, Alpdogan; Hartman, Mor-Li; Denis, Gerald V.; Stephens, Danielle; Hasturk, Hatice; Yaskell, Tina; Vargas, Jorel; Wang, Xiaoshan; Cugini, Maryann; Barake, Roula; Alsmadi, Osama; Al-Mutawa, Sabiha; Ariga, Jitendra; Soparkar, Pramod; Behbehani, Jawad; Behbehani, Kazem; Welty, Francine

    2014-01-01

    Objective The study of obesity-related metabolic syndrome or Type 2 diabetes (T2D) in children is particularly difficult because of fear of needles. We tested a non-invasive approach to study inflammatory parameters in an at-risk population of children to provide proof-of-principle for future investigations of vulnerable subjects. Design and Methods We evaluated metabolic differences in 744, 11-year old children selected from underweight, normal healthy weight, overweight and obese categories by analyzing fasting saliva samples for 20 biomarkers. Saliva supernatants were obtained following centrifugation and used for analyses. Results Salivary C-reactive protein (CRP) was 6 times higher, salivary insulin and leptin were 3 times higher, and adiponectin was 30% lower in obese children compared to healthy normal weight children (all P<0.0001). Categorical analysis suggested that there might be three types of obesity in children. Distinctly inflammatory characteristics appeared in 76% of obese children while in 13%, salivary insulin was high but not associated with inflammatory mediators. The remaining 11% of obese children had high insulin and reduced adiponectin. Forty percent of the non-obese children were found in groups which, based on biomarker characteristics, may be at risk for becoming obese. Conclusions Significantly altered levels of salivary biomarkers in obese children from a high-risk population, suggest the potential for developing non-invasive screening procedures to identify T2D-vulnerable individuals and a means to test preventative strategies. PMID:24915044

  8. Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Paulsen, Samuel S.

    2009-08-25

    Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

  9. Risk Perception Analysis Related To Existing Dams In Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solimene, Pellegrino

    2013-04-01

    earthfill dam is illustrated by defining the risk analysis during its construction and operation. A qualitative "Event Tree Analysis" makes clear with an example the probability of occurrence of the events triggered by an earthquake, and leads to a classification of the damage level. Finally, a System Dynamics (SD) approach is presented to investigate possibilities of a preventive planning in relationship to the risk, so that it's possible to establish shared procedures to achieve the correct management in any crisis phase. As a qualitative result of a SD application, figure 1 presents a flow-chart about a case study on the same dam so to illustrate the emergency planning in a step by step procedure according to the Regulations.

  10. Bisphosphonates and Risk of Cardiovascular Events: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Dae Hyun; Rogers, James R.; Fulchino, Lisa A.; Kim, Caroline A.; Solomon, Daniel H.; Kim, Seoyoung C.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objectives Some evidence suggests that bisphosphonates may reduce atherosclerosis, while concerns have been raised about atrial fibrillation. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the effects of bisphosphonates on total adverse cardiovascular (CV) events, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and CV death in adults with or at risk for low bone mass. Methods A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE through July 2014 identified 58 randomized controlled trials with longer than 6 months in duration that reported CV events. Absolute risks and the Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of total CV events, atrial fibrillation, MI, stroke, and CV death were estimated. Subgroup analyses by follow-up duration, population characteristics, bisphosphonate types, and route were performed. Results Absolute risks over 25–36 months in bisphosphonate-treated versus control patients were 6.5% versus 6.2% for total CV events; 1.4% versus 1.5% for atrial fibrillation; 1.0% versus 1.2% for MI; 1.6% versus 1.9% for stroke; and 1.5% versus 1.4% for CV death. Bisphosphonate treatment up to 36 months did not have any significant effects on total CV events (14 trials; ORs [95% CI]: 0.98 [0.84–1.14]; I2 = 0.0%), atrial fibrillation (41 trials; 1.08 [0.92–1.25]; I2 = 0.0%), MI (10 trials; 0.96 [0.69–1.34]; I2 = 0.0%), stroke (10 trials; 0.99 [0.82–1.19]; I2 = 5.8%), and CV death (14 trials; 0.88 [0.72–1.07]; I2 = 0.0%) with little between-study heterogeneity. The risk of atrial fibrillation appears to be modestly elevated for zoledronic acid (6 trials; 1.24 [0.96–1.61]; I2 = 0.0%), not for oral bisphosphonates (26 trials; 1.02 [0.83–1.24]; I2 = 0.0%). The CV effects did not vary by subgroups or study quality. Conclusions Bisphosphonates do not have beneficial or harmful effects on atherosclerotic CV events, but zoledronic acid may modestly increase the risk of atrial fibrillation. Given the large

  11. A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montewka, Jakub; Krata, Przemysław; Goerland, Floris; Kujala, Pentti

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents a model for risk analysis regarding marine traffic, with the emphasis on two types of the most common marine accidents which are: collision and grounding. The focus is on oil tankers as these pose the highest environmental risk. A case study in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a well-founded formula for risk calculation, which combines the probability of an unwanted event with its consequences. Thus the model is regarded a block type model, consisting of blocks for the probability of collision and grounding estimation respectively as well as blocks for consequences of an accident modelling. Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of a Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based model. The model defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion model and recognizes traffic flow as a non homogeneous process. The presented calculations address waterways crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. For assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a newly developed model, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are recognized. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be modelled by a sort of deterministic formulation. Risk due to tankers running aground addresses an approach fairway to an oil terminal in Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern costs of an oil spill, based on statistics of compensations claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds) by parties involved.

  12. Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) Tool to Support Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    McConnell, Emma R.; Bell, Shannon M.; Cote, Ila; Wang, Rong-Lin; Perkins, Edward J.; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gong, Ping; Burgoon, Lyle D.

    2014-01-01

    Environmental health risk assessors are challenged to understand and incorporate new data streams as the field of toxicology continues to adopt new molecular and systems biology technologies. Systematic screening reviews can help risk assessors and assessment teams determine which studies to consider for inclusion in a human health assessment. A tool for systematic reviews should be standardized and transparent in order to consistently determine which studies meet minimum quality criteria prior to performing in-depth analyses of the data. The Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) tool is focused on assisting risk assessment support teams in performing systematic reviews of transcriptomic studies. SOAR is a spreadsheet tool of 35 objective questions developed by domain experts, focused on transcriptomic microarray studies, and including four main topics: test system, test substance, experimental design, and microarray data. The tool will be used as a guide to identify studies that meet basic published quality criteria, such as those defined by the Minimum Information About a Microarray Experiment standard and the Toxicological Data Reliability Assessment Tool. Seven scientists were recruited to test the tool by using it to independently rate 15 published manuscripts that study chemical exposures with microarrays. Using their feedback, questions were weighted based on importance of the information and a suitability cutoff was set for each of the four topic sections. The final validation resulted in 100% agreement between the users on four separate manuscripts, showing that the SOAR tool may be used to facilitate the standardized and transparent screening of microarray literature for environmental human health risk assessment. PMID:25531884

  13. Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) tool to support risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McConnell, Emma R; Bell, Shannon M; Cote, Ila; Wang, Rong-Lin; Perkins, Edward J; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gong, Ping; Burgoon, Lyle D

    2014-01-01

    Environmental health risk assessors are challenged to understand and incorporate new data streams as the field of toxicology continues to adopt new molecular and systems biology technologies. Systematic screening reviews can help risk assessors and assessment teams determine which studies to consider for inclusion in a human health assessment. A tool for systematic reviews should be standardized and transparent in order to consistently determine which studies meet minimum quality criteria prior to performing in-depth analyses of the data. The Systematic Omics Analysis Review (SOAR) tool is focused on assisting risk assessment support teams in performing systematic reviews of transcriptomic studies. SOAR is a spreadsheet tool of 35 objective questions developed by domain experts, focused on transcriptomic microarray studies, and including four main topics: test system, test substance, experimental design, and microarray data. The tool will be used as a guide to identify studies that meet basic published quality criteria, such as those defined by the Minimum Information About a Microarray Experiment standard and the Toxicological Data Reliability Assessment Tool. Seven scientists were recruited to test the tool by using it to independently rate 15 published manuscripts that study chemical exposures with microarrays. Using their feedback, questions were weighted based on importance of the information and a suitability cutoff was set for each of the four topic sections. The final validation resulted in 100% agreement between the users on four separate manuscripts, showing that the SOAR tool may be used to facilitate the standardized and transparent screening of microarray literature for environmental human health risk assessment.

  14. Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance

    PubMed Central

    Ager, Alan A.; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Barros, Ana M. G.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max

    2017-01-01

    We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments. PMID:28257416

  15. RAVEN, a New Software for Dynamic Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cristian Rabiti; Andrea Alfonsi; Joshua Cogliati; Diego Mandelli; Robert Kinoshita

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN is a generic software driver to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis of code simulating complex systems. Initially developed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the RELAP-7 code [1] is currently being generalized with the addition of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These interfaces are used to extend RAVEN capabilities to any software as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or directly via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable to investigate the system response probing the input space using Monte Carlo, grid strategies, or Latin Hyper Cube schemes, but its strength is its focus toward system feature discovery like limit surfaces separating regions of the input space leading to system failure using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The paper will present an overview of the software capabilities and their implementation schemes followed by same application examples.

  16. Dietary acrylamide and cancer risk: an updated meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Pelucchi, Claudio; Bosetti, Cristina; Galeone, Carlotta; La Vecchia, Carlo

    2015-06-15

    The debate on the potential carcinogenic effect of dietary acrylamide is open. In consideration of the recent findings from large prospective investigations, we conducted an updated meta-analysis on acrylamide intake and the risk of cancer at several sites. Up to July 2014, we identified 32 publications. We performed meta-analyses to calculate the summary relative risk (RR) of each cancer site for the highest versus lowest level of intake and for an increment of 10 µg/day of dietary acrylamide, through fixed-effects or random-effects models, depending on the heterogeneity test. Fourteen cancer sites could be examined. No meaningful associations were found for most cancers considered. The summary RRs for high versus low acrylamide intake were 0.87 for oral and pharyngeal, 1.14 for esophageal, 1.03 for stomach, 0.94 for colorectal, 0.93 for pancreatic, 1.10 for laryngeal, 0.88 for lung, 0.96 for breast, 1.06 for endometrial, 1.12 for ovarian, 1.00 for prostate, 0.93 for bladder and 1.13 for lymphoid malignancies. The RR was of borderline significance only for kidney cancer (RR = 1.20; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.00-1.45). All the corresponding continuous estimates ranged between 0.95 and 1.03, and none of them was significant. Among never-smokers, borderline associations with dietary acrylamide emerged for endometrial (RR = 1.23; 95% CI, 1.00-1.51) and ovarian (RR = 1.39; 95% CI, 0.97-2.00) cancers. This systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies indicates that dietary acrylamide is not related to the risk of most common cancers. A modest association for kidney cancer, and for endometrial and ovarian cancers in never smokers only, cannot be excluded.

  17. A Hygrothermal Risk Analysis Applied to Residential Unvented Attics

    SciTech Connect

    Pallin, Simon B; Kehrer, Manfred

    2013-01-01

    Aresidential building, constructed with an unvented attic, is acommonroof assembly in the United States.The expected hygrothermal performance and service life of the roof are difficult to estimate due to a number of varying parameters.Typical parameters expected to vary are the climate, direction, and slope of the roof as well as the radiation properties of the surface material. Furthermore, influential parameters are indoor moisture excess, air leakages through the attic floor, and leakages from air-handling unit and ventilation ducts. In addition, the type of building materials such as the insulation material and closed or open cell spray polyurethane foam will influence the future performance of the roof. A development of a simulation model of the roof assembly will enable a risk and sensitivity analysis, in which the most important varying parameters on the hygrothermal performance can be determined. The model is designed to perform probabilistic simulations using mathematical and hygrothermal calculation tools. The varying input parameters can be chosen from existing measurements, simulations, or standards. An analysis is applied to determine the risk of consequences, such as mold growth, rot, or energy demand of the HVAC unit. Furthermore, the future performance of the roof can be simulated in different climates to facilitate the design of an efficient and reliable roof construction with the most suitable technical solution and to determine the most appropriate building materials for a given climate

  18. Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

    1994-05-01

    The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges.

  19. A Practical Guide for the Formulation of Propositions in the Bayesian Approach to DNA Evidence Interpretation in an Adversarial Environment.

    PubMed

    Gittelson, Simone; Kalafut, Tim; Myers, Steven; Taylor, Duncan; Hicks, Tacha; Taroni, Franco; Evett, Ian W; Bright, Jo-Anne; Buckleton, John

    2016-01-01

    The interpretation of complex DNA profiles is facilitated by a Bayesian approach. This approach requires the development of a pair of propositions: one aligned to the prosecution case and one to the defense case. This note explores the issue of proposition setting in an adversarial environment by a series of examples. A set of guidelines generalize how to formulate propositions when there is a single person of interest and when there are multiple individuals of interest. Additional explanations cover how to handle multiple defense propositions, relatives, and the transition from subsource level to activity level propositions. The propositions depend on case information and the allegations of each of the parties. The prosecution proposition is usually known. The authors suggest that a sensible proposition is selected for the defense that is consistent with their stance, if available, and consistent with a realistic defense if their position is not known.

  20. Poultry consumption and prostate cancer risk: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    He, Qian; Wan, Zheng-ce; Xu, Xiao-bing; Wu, Jing

    2016-01-01

    Background. Several kinds of foods are hypothesized to be potential factors contributing to the variation of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence. But the effect of poultry on PCa is still inconsistent and no quantitative assessment has been published up to date. So we conducted this meta-analysis to clarify the association between them. Materials and Methods. We conducted a literature search of PubMed and Embase for studies examining the association between poultry consumption and PCa up to June, 2015. Pooled risk ratio (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) of the highest versus lowest poultry consumption categories were calculated by fixed-effect model or random-effect model. Results. A total of 27 (12 cohort and 15 case-control) studies comprising 23,703 cases and 469,986 noncases were eligible for inclusion. The summary RR of total PCa incidence was 1.03 (95% CI [0.95–1.11]) for the highest versus lowest categories of poultry intake. The heterogeneity between studies was not statistically significant (P = 0.768, I2 = 28.5%). Synthesized analysis of 11 studies on high stage PCa and 8 studies on chicken exposure also demonstrated null association. We also did not obtain significant association in the subgroup of cohort study (RR = 1.04, 95% CI [0.98–1.10]), as well as in the subgroups of population-based case-control study and hospital-based case-control study. Then the studies were divided into three geographic groups: Western countries, Asia and South America. The pooled RRs in these areas did not reveal statistically significant association between poultry and PCa. Conclusions. This meta-analysis suggests no association between poultry consumption and PCa risk. Further well-designed studies are warranted to confirm the result. PMID:26855875

  1. Security risk assessment: applying the concepts of fuzzy logic.

    PubMed

    Bajpai, Shailendra; Sachdeva, Anish; Gupta, J P

    2010-01-15

    Chemical process industries (CPI) handling hazardous chemicals in bulk can be attractive targets for deliberate adversarial actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. It is therefore imperative to have comprehensive security risk management programme including effective security risk assessment techniques. In an earlier work, it has been shown that security risk assessment can be done by conducting threat and vulnerability analysis or by developing Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT). HAZOP type vulnerability assessment sheets can be developed that are scenario based. In SRFT model, important security risk bearing factors such as location, ownership, visibility, inventory, etc., have been used. In this paper, the earlier developed SRFT model has been modified using the concepts of fuzzy logic. In the modified SRFT model, two linguistic fuzzy scales (three-point and four-point) are devised based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Human subjectivity of different experts associated with previous SRFT model is tackled by mapping their scores to the newly devised fuzzy scale. Finally, the fuzzy score thus obtained is defuzzyfied to get the results. A test case of a refinery is used to explain the method and compared with the earlier work.

  2. 49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This... safety and security risk analyses required by § 172.820. The risk analysis to be performed may be... evaluating the safety and security of hazardous materials transport, selection of the route...

  3. An analysis of clinical risks in vaccine transportation.

    PubMed

    Fernando, Martina

    2004-10-01

    'Cold chain' transport is an integral part of a system of vaccine transportation that assures the potency of vaccines. If the temperature of vaccines is not kept between the ranges of 2 and 8 degrees C, this can lead to adverse effects especially for the recipients of first time immunization, as no protection is offered. This investigation has shown that there is considerable risk of vaccines being rendered impotent due to ad hoc collection of vaccines by healthcare professionals from pharmacy services, outside of the cold chain transport agreement with the vaccine supplier. This is because at present there are no guidelines for ad hoc collection of either vaccines or the approved cold chain equipment provided to transport the vaccine. The root cause analysis has shown that the general practice can manage this risk by making changes to its system for vaccine ordering, stock control and maintenance. A number of changes are proposed, including the appointment of a vaccine coordinator and the development of a protocol for ad hoc collection of vaccines from pharmacy. By focusing on improving the quality of the process, the practice can improve the care and safety of its immunization programme.

  4. A flexible count data regression model for risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Guikema, Seth D; Coffelt, Jeremy P; Goffelt, Jeremy P

    2008-02-01

    In many cases, risk and reliability analyses involve estimating the probabilities of discrete events such as hardware failures and occurrences of disease or death. There is often additional information in the form of explanatory variables that can be used to help estimate the likelihood of different numbers of events in the future through the use of an appropriate regression model, such as a generalized linear model. However, existing generalized linear models (GLM) are limited in their ability to handle the types of variance structures often encountered in using count data in risk and reliability analysis. In particular, standard models cannot handle both underdispersed data (variance less than the mean) and overdispersed data (variance greater than the mean) in a single coherent modeling framework. This article presents a new GLM based on a reformulation of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COM) distribution that is useful for both underdispersed and overdispersed count data and demonstrates this model by applying it to the assessment of electric power system reliability. The results show that the proposed COM GLM can provide as good of fits to data as the commonly used existing models for overdispered data sets while outperforming these commonly used models for underdispersed data sets.

  5. Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Shelhamer, M.

    2016-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

  6. Approximate Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis with Vine Copulas

    PubMed Central

    Bedford, Tim; Daneshkhah, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Many applications of risk analysis require us to jointly model multiple uncertain quantities. Bayesian networks and copulas are two common approaches to modeling joint uncertainties with probability distributions. This article focuses on new methodologies for copulas by developing work of Cooke, Bedford, Kurowica, and others on vines as a way of constructing higher dimensional distributions that do not suffer from some of the restrictions of alternatives such as the multivariate Gaussian copula. The article provides a fundamental approximation result, demonstrating that we can approximate any density as closely as we like using vines. It further operationalizes this result by showing how minimum information copulas can be used to provide parametric classes of copulas that have such good levels of approximation. We extend previous approaches using vines by considering nonconstant conditional dependencies, which are particularly relevant in financial risk modeling. We discuss how such models may be quantified, in terms of expert judgment or by fitting data, and illustrate the approach by modeling two financial data sets. PMID:26332240

  7. Approximate Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis with Vine Copulas.

    PubMed

    Bedford, Tim; Daneshkhah, Alireza; Wilson, Kevin J

    2016-04-01

    Many applications of risk analysis require us to jointly model multiple uncertain quantities. Bayesian networks and copulas are two common approaches to modeling joint uncertainties with probability distributions. This article focuses on new methodologies for copulas by developing work of Cooke, Bedford, Kurowica, and others on vines as a way of constructing higher dimensional distributions that do not suffer from some of the restrictions of alternatives such as the multivariate Gaussian copula. The article provides a fundamental approximation result, demonstrating that we can approximate any density as closely as we like using vines. It further operationalizes this result by showing how minimum information copulas can be used to provide parametric classes of copulas that have such good levels of approximation. We extend previous approaches using vines by considering nonconstant conditional dependencies, which are particularly relevant in financial risk modeling. We discuss how such models may be quantified, in terms of expert judgment or by fitting data, and illustrate the approach by modeling two financial data sets.

  8. Subsalt risk reduction using seismic sequence stratigraphic analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Wornardt, W.W. Jr.

    1994-12-31

    Several recent projects involving detailed seismic sequence stratigraphic analysis of existing wells near subsalt prospects in the south additions of the offshore Louisiana area in the Gulf of Mexico have demonstrated the utility of using seismic sequence stratigraphic analysis to reduce risk when drilling subsalt plays. First, the thick section of sedimentary rocks that was though to be above and below the salt was penetrated in the area away from the salt. These sedimentary rocks were accurately dated using maximum flooding surface first occurrence downhole of important bioevent, condensed sections, abundance and diversity histograms, and high-resolution biostratigraphy while the wells were being drilled. Potential reservoir sandstones within specific Vail sequences in these wells were projected using seismic data up to the subsalt and non-subsalt sediment interface. The systems tract above and below the maximum flooding surface and the type of reservoir sandstones that were to be encounterd were predictable based on the paleobathymetry, increase and decrease of fauna and flora, recognition of the bottom-set turbidite, slope fan and basin floor fan condensed sections, and superpositional relationship of the Vail sequences and systems tracts to provide a detailed sequence stratigraphic analysis of the well. Subsequently, wells drilled through the salt could be accurately correlated with Vail sequences and systems tracts in wells that were previously correlated away from the salt layer with seismic reflection profiles.

  9. Subsalt risk reduction using seismic sequence-stratigraphic analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Wornardt, W.W. Jr.

    1994-09-01

    Several recent projects involving detailed seismic-sequence stratigraphic analysis of existing wells near subsalt prospects in the south additions of the offshore Louisiana area in the Gulf of Mexico have demonstrated the utility of using seismic sequence-stratigraphic analysis to reduce risk when drilling subsalt plays. First, the thick section of sediments that was thought to be above and below the salt was penetrated in the area away from the salt. These sediments were accurately dated using maximum flooding surface first occurrence downhole of important bioevent, condensed sections, abundance and diversity histograms, and high-resolution biostratigraphy while the wells were being drilled. Potential reservoir sands within specific Vail sequences in these wells were projected on seismic up to the subsalt and non-subsalt sediment interface. The systems tract above and below the maximum flooding surface and the type of reservoir sands that were to be encountered were predictable based on the paleobathymetry, increase and decrease of fauna and flora abundance, recognition of the bottom-set turbidite, slope fan and basin floor fan condensed sections, and superpositional relationship of the Vail sequences and systems tracts to provide a detailed sequence-stratigraphic analysis of the well in question. Subsequently, the wells drilled through the salt could be accurately correlated with the Vail sequences and systems tracts in wells that were previously correlated with seismic reflection profiles away from the salt layer.

  10. NEW APPROACHES IN RISK ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STRESSORS TO HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explore the application of novel techniques for improving and integrating risk analysis of environmental stressors to human and ecological systems. Environmental protection decisions are guided by risk assessments serving as tools to develop regulatory policy and other relate...

  11. Developing risk management behaviours for nurses through medication incident analysis.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Maree; Tran, Duong Thuy; Young, Helen

    2011-12-01

    The aim of this study was to define risk management behaviours related to medication safety. Mixed methods were used to analyze 318 nursing related medication incidents reported in an Australian metropolitan hospital. Most incidents did not result in patient harm (93%). Omission of medications was the most frequent often related to patient absences from the unit or nurses failing to sign for medications. Thematic analysis resulted in the Medication Safety Subscales including 29 behavioural statements within three domains-administering medications, storage and management of medications, managing adverse events related to medications. The Medication Safety Subscales can be used by managers, educators and clinicians to reinforce the importance of medication safety. Early action by nurses may reduce patient injury.

  12. Precursor Analysis for Flight- and Ground-Based Anomaly Risk Significance Determination

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groen, Frank

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the precursor analysis for flight and ground based anomaly risk significance. It includes information on accident precursor analysis, real models vs. models, and probabilistic analysis.

  13. Peer Review of NRC Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect

    Anthony Koonce; James Knudsen; Robert Buell

    2011-03-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Models underwent a Peer Review using ASME PRA standard (Addendum C) as endorsed by NRC in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.200. The review was performed by a mix of industry probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) experts and NRC PRA experts. Representative SPAR models, one PWR and one BWR, were reviewed against Capability Category I of the ASME PRA standard. Capability Category I was selected as the basis for review due to the specific uses/applications of the SPAR models. The BWR SPAR model was reviewed against 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements; however, based on the Capability Category I level of review and the absence of internal flooding and containment performance (LERF) logic only 216 requirements were determined to be applicable. Based on the review, the BWR SPAR model met 139 of the 216 supporting requirements. The review also generated 200 findings or suggestions. Of these 200 findings and suggestions 142 were findings and 58 were suggestions. The PWR SPAR model was also evaluated against the same 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements. Of these requirements only 215 were deemed appropriate for the review (for the same reason as noted for the BWR). The PWR review determined that 125 of the 215 supporting requirements met Capability Category I or greater. The review identified 101 findings or suggestions (76 findings and 25 suggestions). These findings or suggestions were developed to identify areas where SPAR models could be enhanced. A process to prioritize and incorporate the findings/suggestions supporting requirements into the SPAR models is being developed. The prioritization process focuses on those findings that will enhance the accuracy, completeness and usability of the SPAR models.

  14. Hazard analysis and critical control point systems applied to public health risks: the example of seafood.

    PubMed

    Williams, R A; Zorn, D J

    1997-08-01

    The authors describe the way in which the two components of risk analysis--risk assessment and risk management--can be used in conjunction with the hazard analysis and critical control points concept to determine the allocation of resources at potential critical control points. This approach is examined in the context of risks to human health associated with seafood, and in particular with regard to ciguatera poisoning.

  15. The effectiveness of risk management: an analysis of project risk planning across industries and countries.

    PubMed

    Zwikael, Ofer; Ahn, Mark

    2011-01-01

    This article examines the effectiveness of current risk management practices to reduce project risk using a multinational, multi-industry study across different scenarios and cultures. A survey was administered to 701 project managers, and their supervisors, in seven industries and three diverse countries (New Zealand, Israel, and Japan), in multiple languages during the 2002-2007 period. Results of this study show that project context--industry and country where a project is executed--significantly impacts perceived levels of project risk, and the intensity of risk management processes. Our findings also suggest that risk management moderates the relationship between risk level and project success. Specifically, we found that even moderate levels of risk management planning are sufficient to reduce the negative effect risk levels have on project success.

  16. An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

    PubMed

    Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

    2011-07-01

    In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards.

  17. Excimer laser coronary angioplasty: relative risk analysis of clinical results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bittl, John A.

    1992-08-01

    Reports of successful use of excimer laser coronary angioplasty for complex coronary artery disease abound, yet firm indications for its use have not been defined. We attempted to treat 858 coronary stenoses in 764 consecutive patients (mean age 61 years; range 32 - 91 years; 75% men; 76% with Class III or IV angina) with excimer laser angioplasty at 308 nm. Successful treatment was achieved in 86% of patients, as indicated by risk analysis. This showed that certain angiographic features, such as lesions at a vessel bifurcation (odds ratio, OR equals 0.46; 95% confidence interval 0.23, 0.88; P equals 0.017;) or in a tortuous segment (OR equals 0.54; 95% CI equals 0.34, 0.88; P equals 0.041), have decreased likelihood of clinical success. On the other hand, ostial stenoses (OR equals 1.06; 95% CI equals 0.44, 2.56, P equals 0.903) and saphenous vein graft lesions (OR equals 2.17; 95% CI equals 0.98, 4.82; P equals 0.051) have acceptable success rates. Diffuse disease (> 20 mm), total occlusions and calcified lesions were treated as successfully as all other lesion types. Successful treatment with excimer laser coronary angioplasty was also achieved in almost all patients (15/16) who had a prior unsuccessful attempt at balloon angioplasty in the lesion was crossed with a guidewire yet resists either balloon catheter passage or full dilatation. Follow-up angiography was obtained in 70% of eligible patients. Angiographic restenosis, defined by > 50% stenosis, was seen in 60% of patients. Relative risk analysis showed an increased risk of restenosis when adjunctive balloon angioplasty was not used (OR equals 1.68; 95% CI equals 1.02, 2.28; P equals 0.039). Other variables known to affect the outcome of balloon angioplasty, such as lesion length or stenosis in degenerated saphenous vein bypass graft, did not influence the

  18. Imminent Cardiac Risk Assessment via Optical Intravascular Biochemical Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Wetzel, D.; Wetzel, L; Wetzel, M; Lodder, R

    2009-01-01

    Heart disease is by far the biggest killer in the United States, and type II diabetes, which affects 8% of the U.S. population, is on the rise. In many cases, the acute coronary syndrome and/or sudden cardiac death occurs without warning. Atherosclerosis has known behavioral, genetic and dietary risk factors. However, our laboratory studies with animal models and human post-mortem tissue using FT-IR microspectroscopy reveal the chemical microstructure within arteries and in the arterial walls themselves. These include spectra obtained from the aortas of ApoE-/- knockout mice on sucrose and normal diets showing lipid deposition in the former case. Also pre-aneurysm chemical images of knockout mouse aorta walls, and spectra of plaque excised from a living human patient are shown for comparison. In keeping with the theme of the SPEC 2008 conference Spectroscopic Diagnosis of Disease this paper describes the background and potential value of a new catheter-based system to provide in vivo biochemical analysis of plaque in human coronary arteries. We report the following: (1) results of FT-IR microspectroscopy on animal models of vascular disease to illustrate the localized chemical distinctions between pathological and normal tissue, (2) current diagnostic techniques used for risk assessment of patients with potential unstable coronary syndromes, and (3) the advantages and limitations of each of these techniques illustrated with patent care histories, related in the first person, by the physician coauthors. Note that the physician comments clarify the contribution of each diagnostic technique to imminent cardiac risk assessment in a clinical setting, leading to the appreciation of what localized intravascular chemical analysis can contribute as an add-on diagnostic tool. The quality of medical imaging has improved dramatically since the turn of the century. Among clinical non-invasive diagnostic tools, laboratory tests of body fluids, EKG, and physical examination are

  19. Using Qualitative Disease Risk Analysis for Herpetofauna Conservation Translocations Transgressing Ecological and Geographical Barriers.

    PubMed

    Bobadilla Suarez, Mariana; Ewen, John G; Groombridge, Jim J; Beckmann, K; Shotton, J; Masters, N; Hopkins, T; Sainsbury, Anthony W

    2017-03-01

    Through the exploration of disease risk analysis methods employed for four different UK herpetofauna translocations, we illustrate how disease hazards can be identified, and how the risk of disease can be analysed. Where ecological or geographical barriers between source and destination sites exist, parasite populations are likely to differ in identity or strain between the two sites, elevating the risk from disease and increasing the number and category of hazards requiring analysis. Simplification of the translocation pathway through the avoidance of these barriers reduces the risk from disease. The disease risk analysis tool is intended to aid conservation practitioners in decision making relating to disease hazards prior to implementation of a translocation.

  20. A quantitative risk analysis approach to port hydrocarbon logistics.

    PubMed

    Ronza, A; Carol, S; Espejo, V; Vílchez, J A; Arnaldos, J

    2006-01-16

    A method is presented that allows quantitative risk analysis to be performed on marine hydrocarbon terminals sited in ports. A significant gap was identified in the technical literature on QRA for the handling of hazardous materials in harbours published prior to this work. The analysis is extended to tanker navigation through port waters and loading and unloading facilities. The steps of the method are discussed, beginning with data collecting. As to accident scenario identification, an approach is proposed that takes into account minor and massive spills due to loading arm failures and tank rupture. Frequency estimation is thoroughly reviewed and a shortcut approach is proposed for frequency calculation. This allows for the two-fold possibility of a tanker colliding/grounding at/near the berth or while navigating to/from the berth. A number of probability data defining the possibility of a cargo spill after an external impact on a tanker are discussed. As to consequence and vulnerability estimates, a scheme is proposed for the use of ratios between the numbers of fatal victims, injured and evacuated people. Finally, an example application is given, based on a pilot study conducted in the Port of Barcelona, where the method was tested.

  1. Risk factors for temporomandibular disorder: Binary logistic regression analysis

    PubMed Central

    Magalhães, Bruno G.; de-Sousa, Stéphanie T.; de Mello, Victor V C.; da-Silva-Barbosa, André C.; de-Assis-Morais, Mariana P L.; Barbosa-Vasconcelos, Márcia M V.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To analyze the influence of socioeconomic and demographic factors (gender, economic class, age and marital status) on the occurrence of temporomandibular disorder. Study Design: One hundred individuals from urban areas in the city of Recife (Brazil) registered at Family Health Units was examined using Axis I of the Research Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders (RDC/TMD) which addresses myofascial pain and joint problems (disc displacement, arthralgia, osteoarthritis and oesteoarthrosis). The Brazilian Economic Classification Criteria (CCEB) was used for the collection of socioeconomic and demographic data. Then, it was categorized as Class A (high social class), Classes B/C (middle class) and Classes D/E (very poor social class). The results were analyzed using Pearson’s chi-square test for proportions, Fisher’s exact test, nonparametric Mann-Whitney test and Binary logistic regression analysis. Results: None of the participants belonged to Class A, 72% belonged to Classes B/C and 28% belonged to Classes D/E. The multivariate analysis revealed that participants from Classes D/E had a 4.35-fold greater chance of exhibiting myofascial pain and 11.3-fold greater chance of exhibiting joint problems. Conclusions: Poverty is a important condition to exhibit myofascial pain and joint problems. Key words:Temporomandibular joint disorders, risk factors, prevalence. PMID:24316706

  2. Model-based risk analysis of coupled process steps.

    PubMed

    Westerberg, Karin; Broberg-Hansen, Ernst; Sejergaard, Lars; Nilsson, Bernt

    2013-09-01

    A section of a biopharmaceutical manufacturing process involving the enzymatic coupling of a polymer to a therapeutic protein was characterized with regards to the process parameter sensitivity and design space. To minimize the formation of unwanted by-products in the enzymatic reaction, the substrate was added in small amounts and unreacted protein was separated using size-exclusion chromatography (SEC) and recycled to the reactor. The quality of the final recovered product was thus a result of the conditions in both the reactor and the SEC, and a design space had to be established for both processes together. This was achieved by developing mechanistic models of the reaction and SEC steps, establishing the causal links between process conditions and product quality. Model analysis was used to complement the qualitative risk assessment, and design space and critical process parameters were identified. The simulation results gave an experimental plan focusing on the "worst-case regions" in terms of product quality and yield. In this way, the experiments could be used to verify both the suggested process and the model results. This work demonstrates the necessary steps of model-assisted process analysis, from model development through experimental verification.

  3. INDICATORS OF RISK: AN ANALYSIS APPROACH FOR IMPROVED RIVER MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A risk index is an approach to measuring the level of risk to the plants and/or animals (biota) in a certain area using water and habitat quality information. A new technique for developing risk indices was applied to data collected from Mid-Atlantic streams of the U.S. during 1...

  4. What Defines Us as Professionals in the Field of Risk Analysis?

    PubMed

    Aven, Terje

    2016-08-11

    In a recent issue of Risk Analysis, the then-President of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), Pamela Williams, has some interesting reflections about the risk analysis field. She states that the ability and desire to tackle difficult problems using a risk analytical approach is what uniquely defines us as professionals in the field of risk analysis. The point of departure for her discussion is interviews with the plenary speakers of the 2014 SRA Annual Meeting, who addressed two divisive topics: hydraulic fracking and marijuana use. She points to several themes that invite contributions from the field of risk analysis, including: Has the full spectrum of potential risks and benefits been identified and weighted, and what are the risk tradeoffs or countervailing risks? Inspired by Williams's reflections, and by analyzing the issues raised in the interviews, this article seeks to clarify what our field is really providing. A main conclusion of the article is that it is essential to acknowledge that professionals in the field of risk analysis merely support the tackling of such problems, and that their genuine competence-that which distinguishes them from other professionals-lies in the risk analytical approach itself.

  5. Risk of coronary heart disease--risk analysis in the clinical practice of aerospace medicine using a programmable calculator.

    PubMed

    Everett, W D

    1981-09-01

    A simple program for the Hewlett-Packard HP-41C calculator is presented which allows the practicing flight surgeon to screen asymptomatic aviators for risk of aeromedically significant coronary artery disease. The risk equation used in the program is under ongoing investigation at the USAF School of Aerospace Medicine and will be refined. The program allows the flight surgeon to use risk analysis to select candidates for exercise stress testing and educate aviators on possible benefits to be derived from changes in lifestyle.

  6. Analysis of dysphagia risk using the modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly

    PubMed Central

    Byeon, Haewon

    2016-01-01

    [Purpose] The elderly are susceptible to dysphagia, and complications can be minimized if high-risk groups are screened in early stages and properly rehabilitated. This study provides basic material for the early detection and prevention of dysphagia by investigating the risks of dysphagia and related factors in community-dwelling elders. [Subjects and Methods] Participants included 325 community-dwelling elderly people aged 65 or older. The modified dysphagia risk assessment for the community-dwelling elderly was used to assess dysphagia risk. [Results] Approximately 52.6% (n=171) of participants belonged to the high-risk group for dysphagia. After adjusting for confounding variables, people aged 75+, who used dentures, and who needed partial help in daily living had a significantly higher risk of dysphagia. [Conclusion] It is necessary to develop guidelines for dysphagia for early detection and rehabilitation. PMID:27799680

  7. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory.

  8. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  9. [Risk communication in analysis of occupational health risk for industrial workers].

    PubMed

    Barg, A O; Lebedeva-Nesevrya, N A

    2015-01-01

    The article covers problems of risk communication system function on industrial enterprise. Sociologic study in machinery construction enterprise of Perm area helped to consider main procedures of informing on occupational risk for health of workers exposed to occupational hazards, to describe features and mechanisms of risk communication, to specify its model. The authors proved that main obstacles for efficient system of occupational risks communication are insufficiently thorough legal basis, low corporative social responsibility of the enterprise and low social value of health for workers. This article was prepared with the support of the Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation (Project No. 14-16-59011).

  10. Graduate Education in Risk Analysis for Food, Agriculture, and Veterinary Medicine: Challenges and Opportunities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Correia, Ana-Paula; Wolt, Jeffrey D.

    2010-01-01

    The notion of risk in relation to food and food production has heightened the need to educate students to effectively deal with risk in relation to decision making from a science-based perspective. Curricula and related materials were developed and adopted to support graduate learning opportunities in risk analysis and decision making as applied…

  11. A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

    2005-01-01

    Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

  12. Elusive Critical Elements of Transformative Risk Assessment Practice and Interpretation: Is Alternatives Analysis the Next Step?

    PubMed

    Francis, Royce A

    2015-11-01

    This article argues that "game-changing" approaches to risk analysis must focus on "democratizing" risk analysis in the same way that information technologies have democratized access to, and production of, knowledge. This argument is motivated by the author's reading of Goble and Bier's analysis, "Risk Assessment Can Be a Game-Changing Information Technology-But Too Often It Isn't" (Risk Analysis, 2013; 33: 1942-1951), in which living risk assessments are shown to be "game changing" in probabilistic risk analysis. In this author's opinion, Goble and Bier's article focuses on living risk assessment's potential for transforming risk analysis from the perspective of risk professionals-yet, the game-changing nature of information technologies has typically achieved a much broader reach. Specifically, information technologies change who has access to, and who can produce, information. From this perspective, the author argues that risk assessment is not a game-changing technology in the same way as the printing press or the Internet because transformative information technologies reduce the cost of production of, and access to, privileged knowledge bases. The author argues that risk analysis does not reduce these costs. The author applies Goble and Bier's metaphor to the chemical risk analysis context, and in doing so proposes key features that transformative risk analysis technology should possess. The author also discusses the challenges and opportunities facing risk analysis in this context. These key features include: clarity in information structure and problem representation, economical information dissemination, increased transparency to nonspecialists, democratized manufacture and transmission of knowledge, and democratic ownership, control, and interpretation of knowledge. The chemical safety decision-making context illustrates the impact of changing the way information is produced and accessed in the risk context. Ultimately, the author concludes that although

  13. Advanced probabilistic risk analysis using RAVEN and RELAP-7

    SciTech Connect

    Rabiti, Cristian; Alfonsi, Andrea; Mandelli, Diego; Cogliati, Joshua; Kinoshita, Robert

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN, under the support of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program [1], is advancing its capability to perform statistical analyses of stochastic dynamic systems. This is aligned with its mission to provide the tools needed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) path-lead [2] under the Department Of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability program [3]. In particular this task is focused on the synergetic development with the RELAP-7 [4] code to advance the state of the art on the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (NPP). The investigation of the probabilistic evolution of accident scenarios for a complex system such as a nuclear power plant is not a trivial challenge. The complexity of the system to be modeled leads to demanding computational requirements even to simulate one of the many possible evolutions of an accident scenario (tens of CPU/hour). At the same time, the probabilistic analysis requires thousands of runs to investigate outcomes characterized by low probability and severe consequence (tail problem). The milestone reported in June of 2013 [5] described the capability of RAVEN to implement complex control logic and provide an adequate support for the exploration of the probabilistic space using a Monte Carlo sampling strategy. Unfortunately the Monte Carlo approach is ineffective with a problem of this complexity. In the following year of development, the RAVEN code has been extended with more sophisticated sampling strategies (grids, Latin Hypercube, and adaptive sampling). This milestone report illustrates the effectiveness of those methodologies in performing the assessment of the probability of core damage following the onset of a Station Black Out (SBO) situation in a boiling water reactor (BWR). The first part of the report provides an overview of the available probabilistic analysis capabilities, ranging from the different types of distributions available, possible sampling

  14. Methodology for Risk Analysis of Dam Gates and Associated Operating Equipment Using Fault Tree Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-05-01

    aging gate structures at dam spillways, there is an increasing risk of potential dam failures due to gate inoperability, malfunction, or under-design...method uses probabilities for more events defined more precisely than in standard practice, and adds criticality analysis to rank each of the potential ...a combination of the two. One method defined by Boeing Systems (1998) classifies failure modes according to the three levels defined be- low in

  15. Advanced dynamical risk analysis for monitoring anaerobic digestion process.

    PubMed

    Hess, Jonathan; Bernard, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Methanogenic fermentation involves a natural ecosystem that can be used for waste water treatment. This anaerobic process can have two locally stable steady-states and an unstable one making the process hard to handle. The aim of this work is to propose analytical criteria to detect hazardous working modes, namely situations where the system evolves towards the acidification of the plant. We first introduce a commonly used simplified model and recall its main properties. To assess the evolution of the system we study the phase plane and split it into nineteen zones according to some qualitative traits. Then a methodology is introduced to monitor in real-time the trajectory of the system across these zones and determine its position in the plane. It leads to a dynamical risk index based on the analysis of the transitions from one zone to another, and generates a classification of the zones according to their dangerousness. Finally the proposed strategy is applied to a virtual process based on model ADM1. It is worth noting that the proposed approach do not rely on the value of the parameters and is thus very robust.

  16. Risk analysis of tyramine concentration in food production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doudová, L.; Buňka, F.; Michálek, J.; Sedlačík, M.; Buňková, L.

    2013-10-01

    The contribution is focused on risk analysis in food microbiology. This paper evaluates the effect of selected factors on tyramine production in bacterial strains of Lactococcus genus which were assigned as tyramine producers. Tyramine is a biogenic amine sythesized from an amino acid called tyrosine. It can be found in certain foodstuffs (often in cheese), and can cause a pseudo-response in sensitive individuals. The above-mentioned bacteria are commonly used in the biotechnological process of cheese production as starter cultures. The levels of factors were chosen with respect to the conditions which can occur in this technological process. To describe and compare tyramine production in chosen microorganisms, generalized regression models were applied. Tyramine production was modelled by Gompertz curves according to the selected factors (the lactose concentration of 0-1% w/v, NaCl 0-2% w/v and aero/anaerobiosis) for 3 different types of bacterial cultivation. Moreover, estimates of model parameters were calculated and tested; multiple comparisons were discussed as well. The aim of this paper is to find a combination of factors leading to a similar tyramine production level.

  17. Sensitivity analysis on parameters and processes affecting vapor intrusion risk.

    PubMed

    Picone, Sara; Valstar, Johan; van Gaans, Pauline; Grotenhuis, Tim; Rijnaarts, Huub

    2012-05-01

    A one-dimensional numerical model was developed and used to identify the key processes controlling vapor intrusion risks by means of a sensitivity analysis. The model simulates the fate of a dissolved volatile organic compound present below the ventilated crawl space of a house. In contrast to the vast majority of previous studies, this model accounts for vertical variation of soil water saturation and includes aerobic biodegradation. The attenuation factor (ratio between concentration in the crawl space and source concentration) and the characteristic time to approach maximum concentrations were calculated and compared for a variety of scenarios. These concepts allow an understanding of controlling mechanisms and aid in the identification of critical parameters to be collected for field situations. The relative distance of the source to the nearest gas-filled pores of the unsaturated zone is the most critical parameter because diffusive contaminant transport is significantly slower in water-filled pores than in gas-filled pores. Therefore, attenuation factors decrease and characteristic times increase with increasing relative distance of the contaminant dissolved source to the nearest gas diffusion front. Aerobic biodegradation may decrease the attenuation factor by up to three orders of magnitude. Moreover, the occurrence of water table oscillations is of importance. Dynamic processes leading to a retreating water table increase the attenuation factor by two orders of magnitude because of the enhanced gas phase diffusion.

  18. Reliability and risk analysis using artificial neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Robinson, D.G.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses preliminary research at Sandia National Laboratories into the application of artificial neural networks for reliability and risk analysis. The goal of this effort is to develop a reliability based methodology that captures the complex relationship between uncertainty in material properties and manufacturing processes and the resulting uncertainty in life prediction estimates. The inputs to the neural network model are probability density functions describing system characteristics and the output is a statistical description of system performance. The most recent application of this methodology involves the comparison of various low-residue, lead-free soldering processes with the desire to minimize the associated waste streams with no reduction in product reliability. Model inputs include statistical descriptions of various material properties such as the coefficients of thermal expansion of solder and substrate. Consideration is also given to stochastic variation in the operational environment to which the electronic components might be exposed. Model output includes a probabilistic characterization of the fatigue life of the surface mounted component.

  19. Retinal image analysis for automated glaucoma risk evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyúl, László G.

    2009-10-01

    Images of the eye ground not only provide an insight to important parts of the visual system but also reflect the general state of health of the entire human body. Automatic retina image analysis is becoming an important screening tool for early detection of certain risks and diseases. Glaucoma is one of the most common causes of blindness and is becoming even more important considering the ageing society. Robust mass-screening may help to extend the symptom-free life of affected patients. Our research is focused on a novel automated classification system for glaucoma, based on image features from fundus photographs. Our new data-driven approach requires no manual assistance and does not depend on explicit structure segmentation and measurements. First, disease independent variations, such as nonuniform illumination, size differences, and blood vessels are eliminated from the images. Then, the extracted high-dimensional feature vectors are compressed via PCA and combined before classification with SVMs takes place. The technique achieves an accuracy of detecting glaucomatous retina fundus images comparable to that of human experts. The "vessel-free" images and intermediate output of the methods are novel representations of the data for the physicians that may provide new insight into and help to better understand glaucoma.

  20. 3M corporate incinerator environmental monitoring study and risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Stevens, J.B.; Elnabarawy, M.T.; Pilney, J.

    1998-12-31

    A one-year multi-media environmental monitoring study was performed around the 3M Cottage Grove Facility. Particulate metals from the 3M Corporate hazardous waste incinerator were the focus of the study. Two environmental media were of primary interest: area soil sampling was conducted to investigate the impact of past incinerator emissions on the environment, and ambient air monitoring was conducted to address current impacts. Over 180 soil samples were taken from both agricultural and forested land in the vicinity of the Facility. More than 25 chemical parameters were then quantified in the samples. The potential impacts of past emissions from the incinerator were assessed by comparing chemical concentrations from locations where incinerator impacts were expected to be greatest (based on air dispersion modeling) to chemical concentrations in matched samples from sites expected to be least impacted. The ambient air monitoring network consisted of six stations. Source-receptor modeling was used to determine the most likely contribution of the incinerator and six additional major area sources for the air monitoring (i.e. filter) data at each station. The model provided a best-fit analysis regarding the likely contributions of each source to the sample results. The results of these evaluations lead to the conclusion that the current emissions from this Facility do not present an unacceptable risk to human health.

  1. Framework for risk analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES)

    SciTech Connect

    Whelan, G.; Buck, J.W.; Castleton, K.J.; Hoopes, B.L.; Pelton, M.A.; McDonald, J.P.; Gelston, G.M.; Taira, R.Y.

    1998-05-01

    The objectives of this workshop are to (1) provide the NRC staff and the public with an overview of currently available Federally-Sponsored dose models appropriate for decommissioning assessments and (2) discuss NRC staff-developed questions related to model selection criteria with the final rule on ``Radiological Criteria for License Termination`` (62 FR 39058). For over 40 years, medium specific models have been and will continue to be developed in an effort to understand and predict environmental phenomena, including fluid-flow patterns, contaminant migration and fate, human or wildlife exposures, impacts from specific toxicants to specific species and their organs, cost-benefit analyses, impacts from remediation alternatives, etc. For nearly 40 years, medium-specific models have been combined for either sequential or concurrent assessments. The evolution of multiple-media assessment tools has followed a logic progression. To allow a suite of users the flexibility and versatility to construct, combine, and couple attributes that meet their specific needs without unnecessarily burdening the user with extraneous capabilities, the development of a computer-based methodology to implement a Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) was begun in 1994. FRAMES represents a platform which links elements together and yet does not represent the models that are linked to or within it; therefore, changes to elements that are linked to or within FRAMES do not change the framework.

  2. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Zêzere, José L.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing the number and locations of exposed people is a crucial step in landslide risk management and emergency planning. The available population statistical data frequently have insufficient detail for an accurate assessment of potentially exposed people to hazardous events, mainly when they occur at the local scale, such as with landslides. The present study aims to apply dasymetric cartography to improving population spatial resolution and to assess the potentially exposed population. An additional objective is to compare the results with those obtained with a more common approach that uses, as spatial units, basic census units, which are the best spatial data disaggregation and detailed information available for regional studies in Portugal. Considering the Portuguese census data and a layer of residential building footprint, which was used as ancillary information, the number of exposed inhabitants differs significantly according to the approach used. When the census unit approach is used, considering the three highest landslide susceptible classes, the number of exposed inhabitants is in general overestimated. Despite the associated uncertainties of a general cost-benefit analysis, the presented methodology seems to be a reliable approach for gaining a first approximation of a more detailed estimation of exposed people. The approach based on dasymetric cartography allows the spatial resolution of population over large areas to be increased and enables the use of detailed landslide susceptibility maps, which are valuable for improving the exposed population assessment.

  3. Risk assessment for benefits analysis: framework for analysis of a thyroid-disrupting chemical.

    PubMed

    Axelrad, Daniel A; Baetcke, Karl; Dockins, Chris; Griffiths, Charles W; Hill, Richard N; Murphy, Patricia A; Owens, Nicole; Simon, Nathalie B; Teuschler, Linda K

    Benefit-cost analysis is of growing importance in developing policies to reduce exposures to environmental contaminants. To quantify health benefits of reduced exposures, economists generally rely on dose-response relationships estimated by risk assessors. Further, to be useful for benefits analysis, the endpoints that are quantified must be expressed as changes in incidence of illnesses or symptoms that are readily understood by and perceptible to the layperson. For most noncancer health effects and for nonlinear carcinogens, risk assessments generally do not provide the dose-response functions necessary for economic benefits analysis. This article presents the framework for a case study that addresses these issues through a combination of toxicology, epidemiology, statistics, and economics. The case study assesses a chemical that disrupts proper functioning of the thyroid gland, and considers the benefits of reducing exposures in terms of both noncancer health effects (hypothyroidism) and thyroid cancers. The effects are presumed to be due to a mode of action involving interference with thyroid-pituitary functioning that would lead to nonlinear dose response. The framework integrates data from animal testing, statistical modeling, human data from the medical and epidemiological literature, and economic methodologies and valuation studies. This interdisciplinary collaboration differs from the more typical approach in which risk assessments and economic analyses are prepared independently of one another. This framework illustrates particular approaches that may be useful for expanded quantification of adverse health effects, and demonstrates the potential of such interdisciplinary approaches. Detailed implementation of the case study framework will be presented in future publications.

  4. Simplified plant analysis risk (SPAR) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology: Comparisons with other HRA methods

    SciTech Connect

    J. C. Byers; D. I. Gertman; S. G. Hill; H. S. Blackman; C. D. Gentillon; B. P. Hallbert; L. N. Haney

    2000-07-31

    The 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology was developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) in 1994 by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). It was decided to revise that methodology for use by the Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) program. The 1994 ASP HRA methodology was compared, by a team of analysts, on a point-by-point basis to a variety of other HRA methods and sources. This paper briefly discusses how the comparisons were made and how the 1994 ASP HRA methodology was revised to incorporate desirable aspects of other methods. The revised methodology was renamed the SPAR HRA methodology.

  5. Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Methodology: Comparisons with other HRA Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Byers, James Clifford; Gertman, David Ira; Hill, Susan Gardiner; Blackman, Harold Stabler; Gentillon, Cynthia Ann; Hallbert, Bruce Perry; Haney, Lon Nolan

    2000-08-01

    The 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology was developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) in 1994 by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). It was decided to revise that methodology for use by the Simplified Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) program. The 1994 ASP HRA methodology was compared, by a team of analysts, on a point-by-point basis to a variety of other HRA methods and sources. This paper briefly discusses how the comparisons were made and how the 1994 ASP HRA methodology was revised to incorporate desirable aspects of other methods. The revised methodology was renamed the SPAR HRA methodology.

  6. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  7. Mothers' power assertion; children's negative, adversarial orientation; and future behavior problems in low-income families: early maternal responsiveness as a moderator of the developmental cascade.

    PubMed

    Kim, Sanghag; Kochanska, Grazyna

    2015-02-01

    Parental power assertion, a key dimension of family environment, generally sets in motion detrimental developmental cascades; however, evidence suggests that other qualities of parenting, such as responsiveness, can significantly moderate those processes. Mechanisms that account for such moderating effects are not fully understood. We propose a conceptual model of processes linking parental power assertion, parental responsiveness, children's negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the parent, and behavior problems. We test that model in a short-term longitudinal design involving 186 low-income, ethnically diverse mothers and their toddlers. When children were 30 months, the dyads were observed in multiple, lengthy, naturalistic laboratory interactions to assess behaviorally mothers' responsiveness and their power-assertive control style. At 33 months, we observed behavioral indicators of children's negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the mothers in several naturalistic and standardized paradigms. At 40 months, mothers rated children's behavior problems. The proposed moderated mediation sequence, tested using a new approach, PROCESS (Hayes, 2013), was supported. The indirect effect from maternal power assertion to children's negative, adversarial orientation to future behavior problems was present when mothers' responsiveness was either low or average but absent when mothers were highly responsive. This study elucidates a potential process that may link parental power assertion with behavior problems and highlights how positive aspects of parenting can moderate this process and defuse maladaptive developmental cascades. It also suggests possible targets for parenting intervention and prevention efforts.

  8. Mothers’ Power Assertion, Children’s Negative, Adversarial Orientation, and Future Behavior Problems in Low-Income Families: Early Maternal Responsiveness as a Moderator of the Developmental Cascade

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sanghag; Kochanska, Grazyna

    2014-01-01

    Parental power assertion, a key dimension of family environment, generally sets in motion detrimental developmental cascades; however, evidence suggests that other qualities of parenting, such as responsiveness, can significantly moderate those processes. Mechanisms that account for such moderating effects are not fully understood. We propose a conceptual model of processes linking parental power assertion, parental responsiveness, children’s negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the parent, and behavior problems. We test that model in a short-term longitudinal design involving 186 low-income, ethnically diverse mothers and their toddlers. When children were 30 months, the dyads were observed in multiple, lengthy, naturalistic laboratory interactions to assess behaviorally mothers’ responsiveness and their power-assertive control style. At 33 months, we observed behavioral indicators of children’s negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the mothers in several naturalistic and standardized paradigms. At 40 months, mothers rated children’s behavior problems. The proposed moderated mediation sequence, tested using a new approach, PROCESS (Hayes, 2013), was supported. The indirect effect from maternal power assertion to children’s negative, adversarial orientation to future behavior problems was present when mothers’ responsiveness was either low or average but absent when mothers were highly responsive. This study elucidates a potential process that may link parental power assertion with behavior problems and highlights how positive aspects of parenting can moderate this process and defuse maladaptive developmental cascades. It also suggests possible targets for parenting intervention and prevention efforts. PMID:25401483

  9. Men having sex with men donor deferral risk assessment: an analysis using risk management principles.

    PubMed

    Leiss, William; Tyshenko, Michael; Krewski, Daniel

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses issues associated with the lifetime deferral from donating blood of men having sex with men (MSM), in the context of well-established risk management principles, including ethical considerations associated with the risk-based approach to social policy matters. Specifically, it deals with the questions about the rationale for the existing policy in Canada of lifetime deferral for MSM, a rationale applied in practice by blood collection agencies and supported by the regulatory authority of Health Canada. We identify several alternative time frames for MSM deferral: sexual abstinence over either a 10-, 5-, or 1-year period or no deferral. Two options are selected for more complete discussion, namely, abstinence for a period of either 1 or 5 years before donation. The available evidence about estimated residual risk (RR)-that is, the risk remaining after various safeguards for blood are applied-strongly suggests that choosing a 1-year deferral period for MSM would almost certainly give rise to an incremental risk of transfusion-transmitted infection (TTI), over existing levels of risk, for blood recipients. The report argues that, under these circumstances, such a policy change would represent an unethical type of risk transfer, from one social group to another, and therefore would be unacceptable. The evidence is less clear when it comes to a change to either a 10- or 5-year deferral period. This is the case in part because the current level of RR is so low that there are, inevitably, substantial ranges of uncertainties associated with the risk estimation. There is no firm evidence that such a change in the deferral period for MSM would result in an incremental level of risk, although the possibility of a very small increase in risk cannot be entirely ruled out. Under these circumstances, other social policy issues, relevant to the idea of changing the deferral period for MSM, become worthy of additional consideration.

  10. Psycho-Cultural Analysis of Disaster Risk Attitudes in Situation Awareness

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-01

    require much information to make a decision. Second , we identified the severity of risks as ranked and characterized by sociocultural groups using...Schafer (1999) proposed a cognitive-social learning theory of risk taking. It suggests that risk taking attitude is affected by a mix of social...disaster aid planning. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Risk Management, Attitudinal Modeling, Sociocultural Analysis, Situation Awareness 16. SECURITY

  11. [Discussion on the building of post market risk analysis method in hemodialysis device].

    PubMed

    Xu, Honglei; Peng, Xiaolong; Tian, Xiaojun; Wang, Peilian

    2014-09-01

    This paper discussed the building of post market risk analysis method in hemodialysis device from the point of government supervision. By proposing practical research methods for post market risk identification and estimation on hemodialysis device, providing technical guidance for government to put risk management of hemodialysis device into effect, and offering reference for enterprises to carry out post market risk evaluation on their products as well.

  12. Cooperation under predation risk: a data-based ESS analysis

    PubMed Central

    Parker, G. A.; Milinski, M.

    1997-01-01

    Two fish that jointly approach a predator in order to inspect it share the deadly risk of capture depending on the distance between them. Models are developed that seek ESS inspection distances of both single prey and pairs, based on experimental data of the risk that prey (sticklebacks) incur when they approach a predator (pike) to varying distances. Our analysis suggests that an optimal inspection distance can exist for a single fish, and for two equal fish behaving entirely cooperatively so as to maximize the fitness of the pair. Two equal fish inspecting cooperatively should inspect at an equal distance from the predator. The optimal distance is much closer to the predator for cooperative pairs than for single inspectors. However, optimal inspection for two equal fish behaving cooperatively operates across a rather narrow band of conditions relating to the benefits of cooperation. Evolutionarily stable inspection can also exist for two equal fish behaving non-cooperatively such that each acts to make a best reply (in terms of its personal fitness) to its opponent's strategy. Non-cooperative pairs should also inspect at equal distance from the pike. Unlike the 'single fish' and 'cooperative' optima, which are unique inspection distances, there exists a range of ESS inspection distances. If either fish chooses to move to any point in this zone, the best reply of its opponent is to match it (move exactly alongside). Unilateral forward movement in the 'match zone' may not be possible without some cooperation, but if the pair can 'agree' to move forward synchronously, maintaining equal distance, inspection will occur at the nearest point in this zone to the predator. This 'near threshold' is an ESS and is closer to the predator than the single fish optimum: pairs behaving almost selfishly can thus attain greater benefits from inspection by the protection gained from Hamilton's dilution effect. That pairs should inspect more closely than single fish conforms with

  13. 77 FR 13260 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Litchi, Longan, and...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-06

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the.... SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks... Philippines. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for review and comment. DATES:...

  14. Employing the radiological and nuclear risk assessment methods (RNRAM) for assessing radiological and nuclear detection architectures

    SciTech Connect

    Brigantic, Robert T.; Eddy, Ryan R.

    2014-03-20

    The United States Department of Homeland Security’s Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) is charged with implementing domestic nuclear detection efforts to protect the U.S. from radiological and nuclear threats. DNDO is also responsible for coordinating the development of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (GNDA). DNDO utilizes a unique risk analysis tool to conduct a holistic risk assessment of the GNDA known as the Radiological and Nuclear Risk Assessment Methods (RNRAM). The capabilities of this tool will be used to support internal DNDO analyses and has also been used for other entities such as the International Atomic Energy Agency. The model uses a probabilistic risk assessment methodology and includes the ability to conduct a risk assessment of the effectiveness of layered architectures in the GNDA against an attack by an intelligent, adaptive adversary. This paper overviews the basic structure, capabilities, and use of RNRAM as used to assess different architectures and how various risk components are calculated through a series of interconnected modules. Also highlighted is flexible structure of RNRAM which can accommodate new modules in order to examine a variety of threat detection architectures and concepts.

  15. Analysis of the individual risk of altitude decompression sickness under repeated exposures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kumar, K. Vasantha; Horrigan, David J.; Waligora, James M.; Gilbert, John H.

    1991-01-01

    In a case-control study, researchers examined the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in individual subjects with higher number of exposures. Of the 126 subjects, 42 showed one or more episodes of DCS. Examination of the exposure-DCS relationship by odds ratio showed a linear relationship. Stratification analysis showed that sex, tissue ratio, and the presence of Doppler microbubbles were cofounders of this risk. A higher number of exposures increased the risk of DCS in this analysis.

  16. NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scroggins, Sharon; Duda, Kristen

    2008-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of NASA's risk analysis communication programs associated with changing environmental policies. The topics include: 1) NASA Program Transition; 2) Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC); and 3) Regulatory Tracking and Communication Process.

  17. 76 FR 76215 - Privacy Act; System of Records: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-12-06

    ... Act; System of Records: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the Department of State proposes to create a system of records, Risk Analysis and Management... Office of Management and Budget Circular No. A-130, Appendix I. DATES: This system of records will...

  18. 14 CFR 420.25 - Launch site location review-risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Launch site location review-risk analysis... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Criteria and Information Requirements for Obtaining a License § 420.25 Launch site location review—risk analysis. (a) If a...

  19. 14 CFR 420.25 - Launch site location review-risk analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Launch site location review-risk analysis... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Criteria and Information Requirements for Obtaining a License § 420.25 Launch site location review—risk analysis. (a) If a...

  20. Quantitative risk analysis for landslides -- Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2004-03-01

    Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative landslide risk analysis the

  1. The Importance of At-Risk Funding. Policy Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Emily; Griffith, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, states and districts have moved toward making education more equitable. A key component of equity in education is providing additional funds for economically disadvantaged students, commonly referred to as "at-risk students." At-risk students are most often defined as students who qualify for free or reduced priced…

  2. Analysis of Risk Management in Adapted Physical Education Textbooks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Kelle L.; Donovan, Jacqueline B.; Berg, Dominck A.

    2016-01-01

    Physical education teacher education (PETE) programs vary on how the topics of safe teaching and risk management are addressed. Common practices to cover such issues include requiring textbooks, lesson planning, peer teaching, videotaping, reflecting, and reading case law analyses. We used a mixed methods design to examine how risk management is…

  3. Risky Business: An Analysis of Teacher Risk Preferences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowen, Daniel H.; Buck, Stuart; Deck, Cary; Mills, Jonathan N.; Shuls, James V.

    2015-01-01

    A range of proposals aim to reform teacher compensation, recruitment, and retention. Teachers have generally not embraced these policies. One potential explanation for their objections is that teachers are relatively risk averse. We examine this hypothesis using a risk-elicitation task common to experimental economics. By comparing preferences of…

  4. Analysis of dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Su, Boni; Zhao, Jinlong

    2015-07-01

    Knowing the dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation and having an efficient evacuation plan play a very important role in the serious disasters such as earthquake, tsunami and hurricane. In this paper, the dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation in a densely populated area of Beijing was studied with consideration of different influencing factors. Firstly, the eight influencing factors including road width, node degree, safety betweenness, road resistor coefficient, building threat, pedestrian counterflow, illegal vehicle parking and traffic flow were considered to assess the road risk for pedestrian evacuation. Secondly, based on complex network theory, electric circuit theory and real situation of the roads, the comprehensive assessment function for road risk was developed quantitatively based on the eight influencing factors. Thirdly, we analyzed road risk for pedestrian evacuation considering different situations: current condition, regular condition, and optimal condition; the risk distribution maps were drawn to directly show the risk level. Through assessments, the roads with high risk for pedestrian evacuation were found, and an optimized evacuation plan was obtained and analyzed. This mathematical model can guide the emergency evacuation in real time. The process and the results are essential for improving the efficiency of evacuations which should considerably reduce the possibility of injuries, deaths and other losses in the disaster.

  5. Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  6. Comparative risk analysis of technological hazards (a review).

    PubMed Central

    Kates, R W; Kasperson, J X

    1983-01-01

    Hazards are threats to people and what they value and risks are measures of hazards. Comparative analyses of the risks and hazards of technology can be dated to Starr's 1969 paper [Starr, C. (1969) Science 165, 1232-1238] but are rooted in recent trends in the evolution of technology, the identification of hazard, the perception of risk, and the activities of society. These trends have spawned an interdisciplinary quasi profession with new terminology, methodology, and literature. A review of 54 English-language monographs and book-length collections, published between 1970 and 1983, identified seven recurring themes: (i) overviews of the field of risk assessment, (ii) efforts to estimate and quantify risk, (iii) discussions of risk acceptability, (iv) perception, (v) analyses of regulation, (vi) case studies of specific technological hazards, and (vii) agenda for research. Within this field, science occupies a unique niche, for many technological hazards transcend the realm of ordinary experience and require expert study. Scientists can make unique contributions to each area of hazard management but their primary contribution is the practice of basic science. Beyond that, science needs to further risk assessment by understanding the more subtle processes of hazard creation and by establishing conventions for estimating risk and for presenting and handling uncertainty. Scientists can enlighten the discussion of tolerable risk by setting risks into comparative contexts, by studying the process of evaluation, and by participating as knowledgeable individuals, but they cannot decide the issue. Science can inform the hazard management process by broadening the range of alternative control actions and modes of implementation and by devising methods to evaluate their effectiveness. PMID:6580625

  7. In silico analysis of nanomaterials hazard and risk.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Yoram; Rallo, Robert; Liu, Rong; Liu, Haoyang Haven

    2013-03-19

    false positive relative to false negative predictions and the reliability of toxicity data. To establish the environmental impact of ENMs identified as toxic, researchers will need to estimate the potential level of environmental exposure concentration of ENMs in the various media such as air, water, soil, and vegetation. When environmental monitoring data are not available, models of ENMs fate and transport (at various levels of complexity) serve as alternative approaches for estimating exposure concentrations. Risk management decisions regarding the manufacturing, use, and environmental regulations of ENMs would clearly benefit from both the assessment of potential ENMs exposure concentrations and suitable toxicity metrics. The decision process should consider the totality of available information: quantitative and qualitative data and the analysis of nanomaterials toxicity, and fate and transport behavior in the environment. Effective decision-making to address the potential impacts of nanomaterials will require considerations of the relevant environmental, ecological, technological, economic, and sociopolitical factors affecting the complete lifecycle of nanomaterials, while accounting for data and modeling uncertainties. Accordingly, researchers will need to establish standardized data management and analysis tools through nanoinformatics as a basis for the development of rational decision tools.

  8. Obesity and Risk of Thyroid Cancer: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis of 21 Observational Studies

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Jie; Huang, Min; Wang, Li; Ye, Wei; Tong, Yan; Wang, Hanmin

    2015-01-01

    Background Several studies have evaluated the association between obesity and thyroid cancer risk. However, the results remain uncertain. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis to assess the association between obesity and thyroid cancer risk. Material/Methods Published literature from PubMed, EMBASE, Springer Link, Ovid, Chinese Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and Chinese Biology Medicine (CBM) were retrieved before 10 August 2014. We included all studies that reported adjusted risk ratios (RRs), hazard ratios (HRs) or odds ratios (ORs), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of thyroid cancer risk. Results Thirty-two studies (n=12 620 676) were included in this meta-analysis. Obesity was associated with a significantly increased risk of thyroid cancer (adjusted RR=1.33; 95% CI, 1.24–1.42; I2=25%). In the subgroup analysis by study type, increased risk of thyroid cancer was found in cohort studies and case-control studies. In subgroup analysis by sex, both obese men and women were at significantly greater risk of thyroid cancer than non-obese subjects. When stratified by ethnicity, significantly elevated risk was observed in Caucasians and in Asians. In the age subgroup analysis, both young and old populations showed increased thyroid cancer risk. Subgroup analysis on smoking status showed that increased thyroid cancer risks were found in smokers and in non-smokers. In the histology subgroup analyses, increased risks of papillary thyroid cancer, follicular thyroid cancer, and anaplastic thyroid cancer were observed. However, obesity was associated with decreased risk of medullary thyroid cancer. Conclusions Our results indicate that obesity is associated with an increased thyroid cancer risk, except medullary thyroid cancer. PMID:25612155

  9. Terrorism risks and cost-benefit analysis of aviation security.

    PubMed

    Stewart, Mark G; Mueller, John

    2013-05-01

    We evaluate, for the U.S. case, the costs and benefits of three security measures designed to reduce the likelihood of a direct replication of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To do so, we assess risk reduction, losses, and security costs in the context of the full set of security layers. The three measures evaluated are installed physical secondary barriers (IPSB) to restrict access to the hardened cockpit door during door transitions, the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and the Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) Program. In the process, we examine an alternate policy measure: doubling the budget of the FFDO program to $44 million per year, installing IPSBs in all U.S. aircraft at a cost of $13.5 million per year, and reducing funding for FAMS by 75% to $300 million per year. A break-even cost-benefit analysis then finds the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack required for the benefit of each security measures to equal its cost. We find that the IPSB is costeffective if the annual attack probability of an otherwise successful attack exceeds 0.5% or one attack every 200 years. The FFDO program is costeffective if the annual attack probability exceeds 2%. On the other hand, more than two otherwise successful attacks per year are required for FAMS to be costeffective. A policy that includes IPSBs, an increased budget for FFDOs, and a reduced budget for FAMS may be a viable policy alternative, potentially saving hundreds of millions of dollars per year with consequences for security that are, at most, negligible.

  10. Risk of second primary cancer following prostate cancer radiotherapy: DVH analysis using the competitive risk model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takam, R.; Bezak, E.; Yeoh, E. E.

    2009-02-01

    This study aimed to estimate the risk of developing second primary cancer (SPC) corresponding to various radiation treatment techniques for prostate cancer. Estimation of SPC was done by analysing differential dose-volume histograms (DDVH) of normal tissues such as rectum, bladder and urethra with the competitive risk model. Differential DVHs were obtained from treatment planning systems for external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), low-dose-rate (LDR) and high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy techniques. The average risk of developing SPC was no greater than 0.6% for all treatment techniques but was lower with either LDR or HDR brachytherapy alone compared with any EBRT technique. For LDR and HDR brachytherapy alone, the risk of SPC for the rectum was 2.0 × 10-4% and 8.3 × 10-5% respectively compared with 0.2% for EBRT using five-field 3D-CRT to a total dose of 74 Gy. Overall, the risk of developing SPC for urethra following all radiation treatment techniques was very low compared with the rectum and bladder. Treatment plans which deliver equivalent doses of around 3-5 Gy to normal tissues were associated with higher risks of development of SPC.

  11. Stakeholder consultations and opportunities for integrating socio-behavioural factors into the pesticide risk analysis process.

    PubMed

    Calliera, Maura; Marchis, Alex; Sacchettini, Gabriele; Capri, Ettore

    2016-02-01

    The pesticide risk analysis process is well regulated in the EU, especially in relation to placing on the market authorisation procedures, but in order to avoid risks for human health and environment in the use phase, information on how these substances are employed and on socio-behavioural factors that can influence the exposure have to be taken into account. To better explore reasons about the gap between risk assessment and risk management, within the EU FP7 Health and Environmental Risks: Organisation, Integration and Cross-fertilisation of Scientific Knowledge (HEROIC) project, a stepwise stakeholder's consultation process was developed using a mixed approach in two different phases (survey and roundtable). We elicited stakeholder views regarding factors that could limit the pesticide risk assessment phase linked on how the knowledge is produced and the way the data are used in risk management and in risk communication, also taking into account qualitative factors such as responsibility, trust and behaviours, which could have impact on risk assessment policies. Activities deployed indicate that some changes and interaction are needed to better define the problems at the formulation stage, and the type of information risk assessor has to provide, to better inform risk manager in addressing different societal needs, to strengthen the credibility of the process of risk assessment and improve the effectiveness of policies. Integrations between disciplines may initially increase the complexity but in turn will provide a better and more useful estimation of the risk, reinforce transparency and drive a more efficient use of risk management resources.

  12. Motivations and possible actions of potential criminal adversaries of US nuclear programs

    SciTech Connect

    Bass, G.; Jenkins, B.; Kellen, K.; Krofcheek, J.; Petty, G.; Reinstedt, R.; Ronfeldt, D.

    1981-01-01

    The motivations that might impel individuals or groups to undertake criminal actions against US nuclear facilities or programs are explored in the report (R and R-2554-SL) from which this note is taken. The analysis involves examination of the motivations behind nuclear-related crimes that have already occurred and of those behind analogous nonnuclear crimes.

  13. Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.; Dyer, G.; Johnson, N.; McSwain, J. T.

    2011-02-01

    A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell into two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the

  14. Health risk analysis of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in big cities of China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yonghua; Hu, Liangfeng; Lu, Guanghua

    2014-05-01

    A probabilistic carcinogenic risk assessment of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in four big cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xiamen) of China was carried out. PAHs levels in these cities were collected from published literatures and converted into BaP equivalent (BaPeq) concentrations. The health risk assessment models recommended by US EPA were applied to quantitatively characterize the health risk values of PAHs. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk assessment. The results showed that BaPeq concentrations of four cities were all higher than the newest limited value (1 ng/m(3)) of China. Health risk assessment indicated that atmospheric PAHs in Guangzhou and Xiamen posed no or little carcinogenic risk on local residents. However, the PAHs in Beijing and Shanghai posed potential carcinogenic risk for adults and lifetime exposure. Notwithstanding the uncertainties, this study provides the primary information on the carcinogenic risk of atmospheric PAHs in studied cities of China.

  15. Sexual Risk Behavior among Male and Female Truant Youths: Exploratory, Multi-Group Latent Class Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Dembo, Richard; Wareham, Jennifer; Krupa, Julie; Winters, Ken C.

    2015-01-01

    Little is known of sexual risk behaviors among truant youths across gender. This study utilized latent class analysis to examined heterogeneity of sexual risk behaviors across gender among a sample of 300 truant adolescents. Results revealed two latent subgroups within gender: low vs. high sexual risk behaviors. There were gender differences in baseline covariates of sexual risk behaviors, with male truants in higher risk group experiencing ADHD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder) problems, and female truants in higher risk group experienced marijuana use and depression symptoms. African-American race was a significant covariate for high sexual risk behaviors for both genders. Service and practice implications of sexual risk issues of truant youth are discussed. PMID:27066517

  16. Anticipatory Understanding of Adversary Intent: A Signature-Based Knowledge System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-06-01

    including past research on signature analysis. This foundation emphasizes what Jerome Bruner (1986) calls logico-scientific knowledge. Standing in...knowledge are irreducible to one another. According to Bruner , efforts to reduce one to the other, or efforts to ignore one at the expense of the...other inevitably fail to capture the rich diversity of thought. In his outline of these two forms of knowledge, Bruner makes certain distinctions that

  17. Study of Adversarial and Defensive Components in an Experimental Machinery Control Systems Laboratory Environment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-01

    buffer overflow attacks on the PLC. This “bump in the wire” firewall operates seamlessly within the network and does not impact the process when...analysis and content searching/matching. Snort can detect a variety of attacks and network probes, such as buffer overflows, port scans and OS...zip d20tftpbo Digital Bond General Electric D20 ME D20 TFTP Buffer Overflow Tool - crashes the D20 tftp service, all processes are stopped

  18. Analysis of European mitochondrial haplogroups with Alzheimer disease risk.

    PubMed

    van der Walt, Joelle M; Dementieva, Yulia A; Martin, Eden R; Scott, William K; Nicodemus, Kristin K; Kroner, Charles C; Welsh-Bohmer, Kathleen A; Saunders, Ann M; Roses, Allen D; Small, Gary W; Schmechel, Donald E; Murali Doraiswamy, P; Gilbert, John R; Haines, Jonathan L; Vance, Jeffery M; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A

    2004-07-15

    We examined the association of mtDNA variation with Alzheimer disease (AD) risk in Caucasians (989 cases and 328 controls) testing the effect of individual haplogroups and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Logistic regression analyses were used to assess risk of haplogroups and SNPs with AD in both main effects and interaction models. Males classified as haplogroup U showed an increase in risk (OR = 2.30; 95% CI, 1.03-5.11; P = 0.04) of AD relative to the most common haplogroup H, while females demonstrated a significant decrease in risk with haplogroup U (OR = 0.44 ; 95% CI, 0.24-0.80; P = 0.007). Our results were independent of APOE genotype, demonstrating that the effect of mt variation is not confounded by APOE4 carrier status. We suggest that variations within haplogroup U may be involved in AD expression in combination with environmental exposures or nuclear proteins other than APOE.

  19. THE ROLE OF EXPOSURE ANALYSIS IN HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation will cover the basic methodologies used for assessing human exposures to environmental pollutants, and some of the scientific challenges involved in conducting exposure and risk assessments in support of regulatory evaluations.

  20. Analysis of factors that increase motorcycle rider risk compared to car driver risk.

    PubMed

    Keall, Michael D; Newstead, Stuart

    2012-11-01

    As in other parts of the Western world, there is concern in New Zealand about increasing popularity of motorcycles because of potential increases in road trauma. This study sought to identify important factors associated with increased risk for motorcyclists to inform potential policy approaches to reduce motorcyclist injury, such as changes to motorcyclist licensing, training and education. Using data extracted from a register of all New Zealand licensed motor vehicles that were matched to crash data, statistical models were fitted to examine patterns of motorcycle risk in comparison with small cars. These showed generally elevated risks for motorcyclists compared to cars, but particularly elevated risks for motorcycle owners aged in their 20s or who lived in more urbanised settings. In crashes, motorcyclists have little protection from injury, putting the motorcyclist at high risk of injury. When comparing new motorcycles with new cars, the odds of fatal or serious injury to a motorcycle rider involved in an injury crash were almost eight times the odds for a car driver.

  1. Exploring risk in professional nursing practice: an analysis of work refusal and professional risk.

    PubMed

    Beardwood, Barbara A; Kainer, Jan M

    2015-03-01

    This article explores risk in professional nursing practice. Professional risk refers to the threat of professional discipline if it is found that a registered nurse has violated professional nursing practice standards. We argue professional risk is socially constructed and understood differently by nurse regulatory bodies, unions, professional associations and frontline nurses. Regulatory bodies emphasize professional accountability of nurses; professional associations focus on system problems in health-care; unions undertake protecting nurses' right to health and safety; and frontline nurses experience fear and uncertainty in their attempt to interpret practice standards to avoid professional discipline. Perspectives of professional risk are investigated by analyzing three professional nursing bodies' views of professional codes governing the right of nurses to refuse unsafe work assignments. The workplace dynamics surrounding work refusal experienced by frontline nurses are illustrated primarily through the lens of the 2003 SARS influenza outbreak in Ontario, Canada. We conclude that frontline nurses in Ontario are required to manage risk by following professional protocols prioritizing patient care and professional accountability which disregard the systemic, unpredictable and hazardous circumstances in their everyday practice. Moreover, we argue professional protocols cannot anticipate every eventuality in clinical practice creating the fear of professional discipline for nurses.

  2. Risk Factors for Childhood Stunting in 137 Developing Countries: A Comparative Risk Assessment Analysis at Global, Regional, and Country Levels

    PubMed Central

    Danaei, Goodarz; Andrews, Kathryn G.; Sudfeld, Christopher R.; Fink, Günther; McCoy, Dana Charles; Sania, Ayesha; Smith Fawzi, Mary C.; Fawzi, Wafaie W.

    2016-01-01

    Background Stunting affects one-third of children under 5 y old in developing countries, and 14% of childhood deaths are attributable to it. A large number of risk factors for stunting have been identified in epidemiological studies. However, the relative contribution of these risk factors to stunting has not been examined across countries. We estimated the number of stunting cases among children aged 24–35 mo (i.e., at the end of the 1,000 days’ period of vulnerability) that are attributable to 18 risk factors in 137 developing countries. Methods and Findings We classified risk factors into five clusters: maternal nutrition and infection, teenage motherhood and short birth intervals, fetal growth restriction (FGR) and preterm birth, child nutrition and infection, and environmental factors. We combined published estimates and individual-level data from population-based surveys to derive risk factor prevalence in each country in 2010 and identified the most recent meta-analysis or conducted de novo reviews to derive effect sizes. We estimated the prevalence of stunting and the number of stunting cases that were attributable to each risk factor and cluster of risk factors by country and region. The leading risk worldwide was FGR, defined as being term and small for gestational age, and 10.8 million cases (95% CI 9.1 million–12.6 million) of stunting (out of 44.1 million) were attributable to it, followed by unimproved sanitation, with 7.2 million (95% CI 6.3 million–8.2 million), and diarrhea with 5.8 million (95% CI 2.4 million–9.2 million). FGR and preterm birth was the leading risk factor cluster in all regions. Environmental risks had the second largest estimated impact on stunting globally and in the South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia and Pacific regions, whereas child nutrition and infection was the second leading cluster of risk factors in other regions. Although extensive, our analysis is limited to risk factors for which effect sizes and

  3. An analysis of occupational risks for brain cancer.

    PubMed Central

    Brownson, R C; Reif, J S; Chang, J C; Davis, J R

    1990-01-01

    We evaluated the risks of brain cancer in relation to employment history in a case-control study of 312 cases and 1,248 cancer controls. Subjects were identified through the Missouri Cancer Registry for the period 1984 through 1988. Job classification was based on data routinely abstracted from hospital records. Elevated risks were identified for certain white collar occupations: for men employed in engineering, the odds ratio (OR) = 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.4, 10.3; for social science professionals, the OR = 6.1; 95% CI = 1.5, 26.1. Among occupations with potential exposure to occupational carcinogens, increased risks were observed for men employed in agricultural crop production (OR = 1.5; 95% CI = 1.0, 2.4), printing and publishing (OR = 2.8; 95% CI = 1.0, 8.3), and brickmasons and tilesetters (OR = 2.5; 95% CI = 0.5, 11.5). Most of elevated brain cancer risks were due to astrocytic cancers, but the excess among agricultural workers occurred in other cell types. No increase in risk was noted for current cigarette smokers (OR = 0.9; 95% CI = 0.7, 1.5) or ex-smokers (OR = 1.0; 95% CI = 0.7, 1.5). This exploratory study indicates a need for further studies of occupational risks of brain cancer. PMID:2297060

  4. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  5. Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: An assessment of the risk to Douglas commercial transport aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schjelderup, H. C.; Cook, C. Q.; Snyder, E.; Henning, B.; Hosford, J.; Gilles, D. L.; Swanstrom, C. W.

    1980-01-01

    The potential hazard to electrical and electronic devices should there be a release of free carbon fibers due to an aircraft crash and fire was assessed. Exposure and equipment sensitivity data were compiled for a risk analysis. Results are presented in the following areas: DC-9/DC-10 electrical/electronic component characterization; DC-9 and DC-10 fiber transfer functions; potential for transport aircraft equipment exposure to carbon fibers; and equipment vulnerability assessment. Results reflect only a negligible increase in risk for the DC-9 and DC-10 fleets either now or projected to 1993.

  6. Import risk analysis of fruit from Spain to Italy.

    PubMed

    Pani, G; Molinu, M G; Venditti, T; Dore, A; Ladu, G; D'Hallewin, G

    2012-01-01

    similar to the indigenous strains, we may conclude from this risk analysis that the import of the studied fruits produced in the 4 geographical areas of Spain does not increase the local baseline resistance.

  7. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Ramón Porta-Sancho, Juan

    2016-07-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

  8. Geospatial Analysis of Urban Land Use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic Fever Risk - a Review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izzah, L. N.; Majid, Z.; Ariff, M. A. M.; Fook, C. K.

    2016-09-01

    Human modification of the natural environment continues to create habitats in which vectors of a wide variety of human and animal pathogens (such as Plasmodium, Aedes aegypti, Arenavirus etc.) thrive if unabated with an enormous potential to negatively affect public health. Typical examples of these modifications include impoundments, dams, irrigation systems, landfills and so on that provide enabled environment for the transmission of Hemorrhagic fever such as malaria, dengue, avian flu, Lassa fever etc. Furthermore, contemporary urban dwelling pattern appears to be associated with the prevalence of Hemorrhagic diseases in recent years. These observations are not peculiar to the developing world, as urban expansion also contributes significantly to mosquito and other vectors habitats. This habitats offer breeding ground to some vector virus populations. The key to disease control is developing an understanding of the contribution of human landscape modification to vector-borne pathogen transmission and how a balance may be achieved between human development, public health, and responsible urban land use. A comprehensive review of urban land use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic fever risk has been conducted in this paper. The study found that most of the available literatures dwell more on the impact of urban land use on malaria and dengue fevers; however, studies are yet to be found discussing the implications of urban land use on the risk of Ebola, Lassa and other non-mosquito borne VHFs. A relational model for investigating the influence of urban land use change pattern on the risk of Hemorrhagic fever has been proposed in this study.

  9. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

  10. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas.

    PubMed

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-08-05

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation.

  11. Comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials using clinical risk-benefit analysis

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. Methods Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis) we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding) and benefit (thrombosis averted) were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding. Results The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement. Conclusions Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance. PMID:22233221

  12. Economic Risk Analysis of Experimental Cropping Systems Using the SMART Risk Tool

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Recently, a variant of stochastic dominance called stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) has been developed and applied. Unlike traditional stochastic dominance approaches, SERF uses the concept of certainty equivalents (CEs) to rank a set of risk-efficient alternatives instead of ...

  13. Small theories and large risks--is risk analysis relevant for epistemology?

    PubMed

    Cirković, Milan M

    2012-11-01

    Ought we to take seriously large risks predicted by "exotic" or improbable theories? We routinely assess risks on the basis or either common sense, or some developed theoretical framework based on the best available scientific explanations. Recently, there has been a substantial increase of interest in the low-probability "failure modes" of well-established theories, which can involve global catastrophic risks. However, here I wish to discuss a partially antithetical situation: alternative, low-probability ("small") scientific theories predicting catastrophic outcomes with large probability. I argue that there is an important methodological issue (determining what counts as the best available explanation in cases where the theories involved describe possibilities of extremely destructive global catastrophes), which has been neglected thus far. There is no simple answer to the correct method for dealing with high-probability high-stakes risks following from low-probability theories that still cannot be rejected outright, and much further work is required in this area. I further argue that cases like these are more numerous than usually assumed, for reasons including cognitive biases, sociological issues in science and the media image of science. If that is indeed so, it might lead to a greater weight of these cases in areas such as moral deliberation and policy making.

  14. Genomic analysis of high-risk smoldering multiple myeloma

    PubMed Central

    López-Corral, Lucía; Mateos, María Victoria; Corchete, Luis A.; Sarasquete, María Eugenia; de la Rubia, Javier; de Arriba, Felipe; Lahuerta, Juan-José; García-Sanz, Ramón; San Miguel, Jesús F.; Gutiérrez, Norma C.

    2012-01-01

    Smoldering myeloma is an asymptomatic plasma cell dyscrasia with a heterogeneous propensity to progress to active myeloma. In order to investigate the biology of smoldering myeloma patients with high risk of progression, we analyzed the genomic characteristics by FISH, SNP-arrays and gene expression profile of a group of patients with high-risk smoldering myeloma included in a multicenter randomized trial. Chromosomal abnormalities detected by FISH and SNP-arrays at diagnosis were not associated to risk of progression to symptomatic myeloma. However, the overexpression of four SNORD genes (SNORD25, SNORD27, SNORD30 and SNORD31) was correlated with shorter time to progression (P<0.03). When plasma cells from high-risk smoldering patients who progressed to symptomatic myeloma were sequentially analyzed, newly acquired lesions together with an increase in the proportion of plasma cells carrying a given abnormality were observed. These findings suggest that gene expression profiling is a valuable technique to identify smoldering myeloma patients with high risk of progression. (Clinical Trials NCT00443235) PMID:22331267

  15. Adversary phase change detection using S.O.M. and text data.

    SciTech Connect

    Speed, Ann Elizabeth; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Warrender, Christina E.

    2011-01-01

    In this work, we developed a self-organizing map (SOM) technique for using web-based text analysis to forecast when a group is undergoing a phase change. By 'phase change', we mean that an organization has fundamentally shifted attitudes or behaviors. For instance, when ice melts into water, the characteristics of the substance change. A formerly peaceful group may suddenly adopt violence, or a violent organization may unexpectedly agree to a ceasefire. SOM techniques were used to analyze text obtained from organization postings on the world-wide web. Results suggest it may be possible to forecast phase changes, and determine if an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.

  16. Adversary phase change detection using S.O.M. and text data.

    SciTech Connect

    Speed, Ann Elizabeth; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Warrender, Christina E.

    2010-09-01

    In this work, we developed a self-organizing map (SOM) technique for using web-based text analysis to forecast when a group is undergoing a phase change. By 'phase change', we mean that an organization has fundamentally shifted attitudes or behaviors. For instance, when ice melts into water, the characteristics of the substance change. A formerly peaceful group may suddenly adopt violence, or a violent organization may unexpectedly agree to a ceasefire. SOM techniques were used to analyze text obtained from organization postings on the world-wide web. Results suggest it may be possible to forecast phase changes, and determine if an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.

  17. Alzheimer's Disease is an Important Risk Factor of Fractures: a Meta-analysis of Cohort Studies.

    PubMed

    Liang, Ying; Wang, Lei

    2016-04-12

    The risk of fracture in individuals with Alzheimer's disease had not been fully quantified. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies was performed to estimate the impact of Alzheimer's disease on risk of fractures. Pubmed and Embase were searched for eligible cohort studies assessing the association between Alzheimer's disease and risk of fractures. The overall relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs were calculated using a random-effects model to evaluate the association. Six cohort studies with a total of 137,986 participants were included into the meta-analysis. Meta-analysis of a total of six studies showed that Alzheimer's disease was significantly associated with two-fold increased risk of fractures (RR = 2.18, 95 % CI 1.64-2.90, P < 0.001; I (2) = 91.4 %). Meta-regression analysis showed that type of fractures was a source of heterogeneity (P = 0.003). Meta-analysis of five studies on hip fracture showed that Alzheimer's disease was significantly associated with 2.5-fold increased risk of hip fracture (RR = 2.52, 95 % CI 2.26-2.81, P < 0.001; I (2) = 25.2 %). There was no risk of publication bias observed in the funnel plot. There is strong evidence that Alzheimer's disease is a risk factor of hip fracture.

  18. Quantitative landslide risk analysis Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2003-04-01

    Risk analysis, risk evaluation and risk management are integrated in the holistic concept of risk assessment. Internationally, various quantitative, semiquantitative and qualitative approaches exist to analyse the risk to life and/or the economic risk caused by landslides. In Iceland, a method to carry out snow avalanche risk analysis was developed in 1999, followed by rough guidelines on how to integrate results from landslide hazard assessments into a comprehensive landslide and snow avalanche risk assessment in 2002. The Icelandic regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides, issued by the Icelandic Ministry of the Environment in the year 2000, aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk, until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, an approach to calculate landslide risk in detail is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method and apply it in Bildudalur, NW-Iceland. Within this presentation, the risk analysis focuses on the risks to loose life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, under the consideration of changing vulnerabilities must be determined. Based on existent debris flow and rock fall run-out maps, hazard maps are derived and the respective risks are calculated. Already digitized elements at risk (people in houses) are verified and updated. The damage potential (the number of all of the people living or working at a specific location), derived from official statistics and own investigations, are attributed to each house. The vulnerability of the elements at risk is mainly based on literature studies. The probability of spatial impact (i.e. of the hazardous event impacting a building) is estimated using benchmarks given in literature, results from field

  19. Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newman, Lauri K.; Frigm, Ryan C.; Duncan, Matthew G.; Hejduk, Matthew D.

    2014-01-01

    Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.

  20. Probabilistic risk analysis of HCDA scenarios in a pool-type breeder reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Page, R.J.; Mueller, C.J.; Rothman, A.B.; Chasanov, M.; Sevy, R.; Marchaterre, J.F.; Froehle, P.J.; Pedersen, D.R.; Farhadieh, R.

    1985-01-01

    One potential design for the future generation of nuclear reactors is that of the breeder reactor. As with present-day reactors there is the necessity for demonstrating that such a reactor will be operable with very small risk to the public. As a result, a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) will be a valuable tool in the design of future nuclear plants. This paper presents a risk analysis performed to evaluate hypothetical core disruptive accidents (HCDAs) in a large, pool-type LMFBR, and how it was used to evaluate the reduction in risk brought about by the addition of various safety-related design options. It was shown that the base design met the NRC risk guidelines with some margin, and that a design option featuring emergency cooling of the reactor vessel greatly reduced the risk.

  1. Relative risk analysis of the use of radiation-emitting medical devices: A preliminary application

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.

    1996-06-01

    This report describes the development of a risk analysis approach for evaluating the use of radiation-emitting medial devices. This effort was performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The assessment approach has bee applied to understand the risks in using the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis for developing regulations and quality assurance requirements in the use of nuclear medical devices. The risk approach identifies and assesses the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance for the medical system. The approach uses expert screening techniques and relative risk profiling to incorporate the type, quality, and quantity of data available and to present results in an easily understood form.

  2. Metabolic syndrome risk factors and dry eye syndrome: a Meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Ye-Lei; Cheng, Ya-Lan; Ren, Yu-Ping; Yu, Xiao-Ning; Shentu, Xing-Chao

    2016-01-01

    AIM To explore the relationship between metabolic risk factors and dry eye syndrome (DES). METHODS Retrieved studies on the association of metabolic syndrome risk factors (hypertension, hyperglycemia, obesity, and hyperlipidemia) and DES were collected from PubMed, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library in December 2015. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were pooled to evaluate the final relationship. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to diagnostic criteria of DES. RESULTS Nine cross-sectional studies and three case-control studies were included in this Meta-analysis. The pooled results showed that people with hypertension, hyperglycemia, and hyperlipidemia had a higher risk of suffering from DES (P<0.05), especially the typical DES symptoms. On the other hand, obesity did not increase the risk of DES. CONCLUSION The present Meta-analysis suggests that all metabolic risk factors except obesity were risk factors for DES. PMID:27500114

  3. A starting point for Risk Assessment: The Fault Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)

    SciTech Connect

    Fine, A.M.

    1994-06-01

    This paper describes and discusses a basic safety analysis technique which may be useful for the beginning process of Risk Assessment and Risk Management. The technique uses judgmental factors on the part of analysts rather than dependence upon numerical techniques associated with more detailed analysis. The basic technique is presented and coupled to risk charts which may vary depending upon the intent of the analysis and the output required for the particular situation. Some variations are included to show how the technique may be used for prioritization of competing resources for necessary work.

  4. Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

    PubMed

    Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

    2012-01-01

    In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

  5. Analysis and classification of the tools for assessing the risks associated with industrial machines.

    PubMed

    Paques, Joseph-Jean; Gauthier, François; Perez, Alejandro

    2007-01-01

    To assess and plan future risk-analysis research projects, 275 documents describing methods and tools for assessing the risks associated with industrial machines or with other sectors such as the military, and the nuclear and aeronautics industries, etc., were collected. These documents were in the format of published books or papers, standards, technical guides and company procedures collected throughout industry. From the collected documents, 112 documents were selected for analysis; 108 methods applied or potentially applicable for assessing the risks associated with industrial machines were analyzed and classified. This paper presents the main quantitative results of the analysis of the methods and tools.

  6. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    SciTech Connect

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare.

  7. A risk analysis model of the relationship between beverage consumption from school vending machines and risk of adolescent overweight.

    PubMed

    Forshee, Richard A; Storey, Maureen L; Ginevan, Michael E

    2005-10-01

    Risk analysis is a widely used tool to understand problems in food safety policy, but it is seldom applied to nutrition policy. We propose that risk analysis be applied more often to inform debates on nutrition policy, and we conduct a risk assessment of the relationship of regular carbonated soft drink (RCSD) consumption in schools and body mass index (BMI) as a case study. Data for RCSD consumption in schools were drawn from three data sets: the Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals 1994-1996, 1998 (CSFII), the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2000 (NHANES), and the National Family Opinion (NFO) WorldGroup Share of Intake Panel (SIP) study. We used the largest relationship between RCSD and BMI that was published by prospective observational studies to characterize the maximum plausible relationship in our study. Consumption of RCSD in schools was low in all three data sets, ranging from 15 g/day in NFO-SIP to 60 g/day in NHANES. There was no relationship between RCSD consumption from all sources and BMI in either the CSFII or the NHANES data. The risk assessment showed no impact on BMI by removing RCSD consumption in school. These findings suggest that focusing adolescent overweight prevention programs on RCSD in schools will not have a significant impact on BMI.

  8. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

    PubMed

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction.

  9. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  10. Fruit flies risk analysis: Current situation and perspectives

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Trade in fresh agricultural commodities involves probability of entry and establishment of exotic organisms into the importing region or country. The term "risk" includes the product of likelihood that exotic organisms will enter and become established (survive and reproduce) in the importing regio...

  11. The impact of consumer phase models in microbial risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Nauta, Maarten; Christensen, Bjarke

    2011-02-01

    In quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), the consumer phase model (CPM) describes the part of the food chain between purchase of the food product at retail and exposure. Construction of a CPM is complicated by the large variation in consumer food handling practices and a limited availability of data. Therefore, several subjective (simplifying) assumptions have to be made when a CPM is constructed, but with a single CPM their impact on the QMRA results is unclear. We therefore compared the performance of eight published CPMs for Campylobacter in broiler meat in an example of a QMRA, where all the CPMs were analyzed using one single input distribution of concentrations at retail, and the same dose-response relationship. It was found that, between CPMs, there may be a considerable difference in the estimated probability of illness per serving. However, the estimated relative risk reductions are less different for scenarios modeling the implementation of control measures. For control measures affecting the Campylobacter prevalence, the relative risk is proportional irrespective of the CPM used. However, for control measures affecting the concentration the CPMs show some difference in the estimated relative risk. This difference is largest for scenarios where the aim is to remove the highly contaminated portion from human exposure. Given these results, we conclude that for many purposes it is not necessary to develop a new detailed CPM for each new QMRA. However, more observational data on consumer food handling practices and their impact on microbial transfer and survival are needed to generalize this conclusion.

  12. System, cost, and risk analysis for access to space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chase, James P.; Carter, Rebecca L.; Smith, Jeffrey L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper proposes the use of a new tool more quickly develop initial cost and risk estimates of alternative flight options for both single missions and the partnering of missions into a single space flight. this work is particularly useful for small missions that require low-cost opportunities for accessing space.

  13. Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yan, Yan

    2009-01-01

    The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

  14. Analysis of genetics and risk factors of Alzheimer's Disease.

    PubMed

    Panpalli Ates, M; Karaman, Y; Guntekin, S; Ergun, M A

    2016-06-14

    Alzheimer's Disease is the leading neurodegenerative cause of dementia. The pathogenesis is not clearly understood yet, is believed to be the complex interaction between genetic and environmental factors. Consequently vascular risk factors and Apolipoprotein E genotyping are increasingly gaining importance. This study aimed at assessing the relationships between Alzheimer's Disease and Apolipoprotein E phenotype and vascular risk factors. Patients diagnosed with "possible Alzheimer's Disease" in the Gazi University, Department of Neurology, were included in the study and age-matched volunteer patients who attended the polyclinic were included as a control group. In this study, the risk factors including low education level, smoking, hyperlipidemia, higher serum total cholesterol levels, and hyperhomocysteinemia were found to be statistically significantly more common in the Alzheimer's Disease group in comparison to the Control Group, while all Apolipoprotein E ε4/ε4 genotypes were found in the Alzheimer's Disease group. The presence of the Apolipoprotein E ε4 allele is believed to increase vascular risk factors as well as to affect Alzheimer's Disease directly. The biological indicators which are used in identifying the patients' genes will be probably used in the treatment plan of the patients in the future.

  15. Sensitivity analysis of a two-dimensional quantitative microbiological risk assessment: keeping variability and uncertainty separated.

    PubMed

    Busschaert, Pieter; Geeraerd, Annemie H; Uyttendaele, Mieke; Van Impe, Jan F

    2011-08-01

    The aim of quantitative microbiological risk assessment is to estimate the risk of illness caused by the presence of a pathogen in a food type, and to study the impact of interventions. Because of inherent variability and uncertainty, risk assessments are generally conducted stochastically, and if possible it is advised to characterize variability separately from uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis allows to indicate to which of the input variables the outcome of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment is most sensitive. Although a number of methods exist to apply sensitivity analysis to a risk assessment with probabilistic input variables (such as contamination, storage temperature, storage duration, etc.), it is challenging to perform sensitivity analysis in the case where a risk assessment includes a separate characterization of variability and uncertainty of input variables. A procedure is proposed that focuses on the relation between risk estimates obtained by Monte Carlo simulation and the location of pseudo-randomly sampled input variables within the uncertainty and variability distributions. Within this procedure, two methods are used-that is, an ANOVA-like model and Sobol sensitivity indices-to obtain and compare the impact of variability and of uncertainty of all input variables, and of model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. As a case study, this methodology is applied to a risk assessment to estimate the risk of contracting listeriosis due to consumption of deli meats.

  16. Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.

    PubMed

    Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R

    2005-11-15

    A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes.

  17. A coffee can, factor analysis, and prediction of antisocial behavior: the structure of criminal risk.

    PubMed

    Kroner, Daryl G; Mills, Jeremy F; Reddon, John R

    2005-01-01

    The predictive accuracy of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised, Level of Service Inventory-Revised, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, and the General Statistical Information on Recidivism were compared to four instruments randomly generated from the total pool of original items. None of the four original instruments better predicted post-release failure than the four randomly generated instruments. These results suggest two conclusions: (a) the instruments are only measuring criminal risk, and (b) no single instrument has captured sufficient risk assessment theory to result in better prediction than randomly derived instruments measuring criminal risk. A two-stage factor analysis was completed on 1614 cases. This analysis of the risk items indicated a 4-factor solution and all 4 factors were equal to the original instruments in predicting post-release failure. Thus, the original instruments did not improve prediction over randomly structured scales, nor did the restructuring of items improve risk assessment, suggesting substantial deficiencies in the conceptualization of risk assessment and instrumentation. We argue that developing a risk-based construct, which involves hypothesis testing and an explanation of behavior, is the optimal method to advance risk assessment within the criminal justice and mental health systems. Such an approach would provide targeted areas for clinical intervention that are salient to risk.

  18. Identifying At-Risk Students in General Chemistry via Cluster Analysis of Affective Characteristics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Julia Y. K.; Bauer, Christopher F.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify academically at-risk students in first-semester general chemistry using affective characteristics via cluster analysis. Through the clustering of six preselected affective variables, three distinct affective groups were identified: low (at-risk), medium, and high. Students in the low affective group…

  19. Introduction to Political Risk Analysis. Learning Packages in the Policy Sciences, PS-24.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coplin, William D.; O'Leary, Michael K.

    This package introduces college students to the kind of analysis that multinational corporations undertake to assess risks to their business operations due to political and economic conditions. Designed to be completed in 3 weeks, the four exercises enable students to (1) identify the major sources of political risk; (2) determine what social,…

  20. Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Coefficients for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides. An Uncertainty Analysis for Risk Coefficients Reported in Federal Guidance Report No. 13

    SciTech Connect

    Pawel, David; Leggett, Richard Wayne; Eckerman, Keith F; Nelson, Christopher

    2007-01-01

    Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.

  1. 78 FR 41908 - Plants for Planting Whose Importation Is Not Authorized Pending Pest Risk Analysis; Notice of...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-07-12

    ... Not Authorized Pending Pest Risk Analysis; Notice of Availability of Data Sheets for Taxa of Plants... our lists of plants for planting whose importation is not authorized pending pest risk analysis. This... pest risk analysis. Comments on the notice were required to be received on or before July 5, 2013....

  2. 76 FR 44572 - Plants for Planting Whose Importation Is Not Authorized Pending Pest Risk Analysis; Notice of...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-26

    ... Pending Pest Risk Analysis; Notice of Availability of Data Sheets for Taxa of Plants for Planting That Are... pending pest risk analysis. We have prepared data sheets that detail the scientific evidence we evaluated... not be authorized pending pest risk analysis. In most cases, the importation of the taxa would not...

  3. 75 FR 53273 - Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Risk Analysis Protocol

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-31

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XY53 Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research... Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce ACTION: Notice of availability of draft revised research protocol... availability of the draft revised Federal Aquatic Nuisance Species Research Risk Analysis Protocol...

  4. A meta-analysis of alcohol consumption and thyroid cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiaofei; Cheng, Wenli; Li, Jingdong; Zhu, Jingqiang

    2016-01-01

    Background It is still inconclusive whether alcohol consumption affects the risk of thyroid cancer. We conducted a meta-analysis of available epidemiological data to address this issue. Results Compared with nondrinkers, the pooled relative risks (RRs) and corresponding 95% confidential intervals (CIs) of thyroid cancer were 0.80 (95% CI 0.71-0.90) for any drinkers, 0.81 (95% CI 0.70-0.93) for light and 0.71 (95% CI 0.63-0.79) for moderate drinkers. The dose–response analysis suggested that there is no evidence of a dose-risk relationship between alcohol intaking and thyroid cancer risk (P = 0.112). Methods Eligible studies were identified by searching PubMed and EMbase databases. A total of 24 studies, included 9,990 cases with thyroid cancer, were included in this meta-analysis. We defined light alcohol intake as ≤ one drink/day and moderate as >one drink/day. The summary risk estimates were calculated by the random effects model. A dose-response analysis was also conducted for modeling the dose-risk relation. Conclusion This meta-analysis confirmed an inverse association between alcohol consumption and thyroid cancer risk. Further studies are needed to better understand the potential mechanisms underlying this association. PMID:27385005

  5. Review of Research Trends and Methods in Nano Environmental, Health, and Safety Risk Analysis.

    PubMed

    Erbis, Serkan; Ok, Zeynep; Isaacs, Jacqueline A; Benneyan, James C; Kamarthi, Sagar

    2016-08-01

    Despite the many touted benefits of nanomaterials, concerns remain about their possible environmental, health, and safety (EHS) risks in terms of their toxicity, long-term accumulation effects, or dose-response relationships. The published studies on EHS risks of nanomaterials have increased significantly over the past decade and half, with most focused on nanotoxicology. Researchers are still learning about health consequences of nanomaterials and how to make environmentally responsible decisions regarding their production. This article characterizes the scientific literature on nano-EHS risk analysis to map the state-of-the-art developments in this field and chart guidance for the future directions. First, an analysis of keyword co-occurrence networks is investigated for nano-EHS literature published in the past decade to identify the intellectual turning points and research trends in nanorisk analysis studies. The exposure groups targeted in emerging nano-EHS studies are also assessed. System engineering methods for risk, safety, uncertainty, and system reliability analysis are reviewed, followed by detailed descriptions where applications of these methods are utilized to analyze nanomaterial EHS risks. Finally, the trends, methods, future directions, and opportunities of system engineering methods in nano-EHS research are discussed. The analysis of nano-EHS literature presented in this article provides important insights on risk assessment and risk management tools associated with nanotechnology, nanomanufacturing, and nano-enabled products.

  6. Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

    PubMed

    von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

    2016-03-01

    Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

  7. A Person-Centered Analysis of Risk Factors that Compromise Wellbeing in Emerging Adulthood.

    PubMed

    Newcomb-Anjo, Sarah E; Barker, Erin T; Howard, Andrea L

    2016-11-08

    The transition to adulthood is a major life course transition that can pose risk to wellbeing. Research is needed to identify patterns of risk for compromised wellbeing, in order to best identify supports for individuals during this potentially vulnerable transition. The purpose of this study was to identify profiles of risk in an emerging adulthood sample, and to relate these profiles to mental health and subjective and academic wellbeing. Undergraduate emerging adults (N = 903, 82 % female), aged 18-25 years (M = 21.14, SD = 1.75), completed a series of questionnaires about risk factors, mental health, and academic variables. Results from a latent profile analysis identified four distinct risk profiles: Low Risk (76 %), Low Social Support Risk (4 %), Financial Risk (11 %), and Multiple Risk (8 %). The risk profiles were subsequently related to mental health and subjective and academic wellbeing outcomes, using a pseudo-class draws approach. Analyses indicated that the risk-pattern profiles differed in several ways across outcomes. Implications for targeted interventions are discussed.

  8. Risk factor profiles among intravenous drug using young adults: a latent class analysis (LCA) approach.

    PubMed

    James, Sigrid; McField, Edward S; Montgomery, Susanne B

    2013-03-01

    Using data from a cross-sectional study that examined health risk behaviors among urban intravenous drug-using (IDU) adolescents and young adults, this study investigated risk profiles among a high-risk sample (n=274). Risk profiles were empirically derived through latent class analysis based on indicators of engagement in health-risking behaviors, experience of abuse and violence as well as individual and family risk factors. The best fitting model was a 3-class model. Class 1 (n=95) captured participants with the lowest risk across all indicators. Compared to Class 1, Class 2 (n=128) and Class 3 (n=51) had elevated rates of engagement in health-risking behaviors as well as individual and family risk factors; however, Class 3 had the highest rate of engagement in sexual risk behavior, and backgrounds of substantial abuse and violence as well as familial psychopathology. Class 2 was the group most socioeconomically disadvantaged, with the highest percentage of participants coming from poor backgrounds, spending the longest time homeless and working the fewest months. Identifying subgroups of IDU has the potential to guide the development of more targeted and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this high-risk population.

  9. The informed society: an analysis of the public's information-seeking behavior regarding coastal flood risks.

    PubMed

    Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; De Maeyer, Philippe

    2012-08-01

    Recent flood risk management puts an increasing emphasis on the public's risk perception and its preferences. It is now widely recognized that a better knowledge of the public's awareness and concern about risks is of vital importance to outline effective risk communication strategies. Models such as Risk Information Seeking and Processing address this evolution by considering the public's needs and its information-seeking behavior with regard to risk information. This study builds upon earlier information-seeking models and focuses on the empirical relationships between information-seeking behavior and the constructs of risk perception, perceived hazard knowledge, response efficacy, and information need in the context of coastal flood risks. Specific focus is given to the mediating role of information need in the model and to the differences in information-seeking behavior between permanent and temporary residents. By means of a structured on-line questionnaire, a cross-sectional survey was carried out in the city of Ostend, one of the most vulnerable places to coastal flooding on the Belgian coast. Three hundred thirteen respondents participated in the survey. Path analysis reveals that information need does not act as a mediator in contrast to risk perception and perceived knowledge. In addition, it is shown that risk perception and perceived hazard knowledge are higher for permanent than temporary residents, leading to increased information-seeking behavior among the former group. Implications for risk communication are discussed.

  10. Comparing risk in conventional and organic dairy farming in the Netherlands: an empirical analysis.

    PubMed

    Berentsen, P B M; Kovacs, K; van Asseldonk, M A P M

    2012-07-01

    This study was undertaken to contribute to the understanding of why most dairy farmers do not convert to organic farming. Therefore, the objective of this research was to assess and compare risks for conventional and organic farming in the Netherlands with respect to gross margin and the underlying price and production variables. To investigate the risk factors a farm accountancy database was used containing panel data from both conventional and organic representative Dutch dairy farms (2001-2007). Variables with regard to price and production risk were identified using a gross margin analysis scheme. Price risk variables were milk price and concentrate price. The main production risk variables were milk yield per cow, roughage yield per hectare, and veterinary costs per cow. To assess risk, an error component implicit detrending method was applied and the resulting detrended standard deviations were compared between conventional and organic farms. Results indicate that the risk included in the gross margin per cow is significantly higher in organic farming. This is caused by both higher price and production risks. Price risks are significantly higher in organic farming for both milk price and concentrate price. With regard to production risk, only milk yield per cow poses a significantly higher risk in organic farming.

  11. Risk Analysis Based Business Rule Enforcement for Intelligent Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasilecas, Olegas; Smaizys, Aidas; Brazinskas, Ramunas

    Intelligent information systems are acting by structured rules and do not deal with possible impact on the business environment or future consequences. That is the main reason why automated decisions based on such rules cannot take responsibility and requires involvement or approval of dedicated business people. This limits decision automation possibilities in information systems. However, business rules describe business policy and represent business logics. This can be used in intelligent information systems, together with risk assessment model to simulate real business environment and evaluate possible impact of automated decisions, to support intelligent decision automation. The chapter proposes risk and business rule model integration to provide full intelligent decision automation model used for business rule enforcement and implementation into intelligent software systems of information systems.

  12. Risk analysis of sulfites used as food additives in China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jian Bo; Zhang, Hong; Wang, Hua Li; Zhang, Ji Yue; Luo, Peng Jie; Zhu, Lei; Wang, Zhu Tian

    2014-02-01

    This study was to analyze the risk of sulfites in food consumed by the Chinese people and assess the health protection capability of maximum-permitted level (MPL) of sulfites in GB 2760-2011. Sulfites as food additives are overused or abused in many food categories. When the MPL in GB 2760-2011 was used as sulfites content in food, the intake of sulfites in most surveyed populations was lower than the acceptable daily intake (ADI). Excess intake of sulfites was found in all the surveyed groups when a high percentile of sulfites in food was in taken. Moreover, children aged 1-6 years are at a high risk to intake excess sulfites. The primary cause for the excess intake of sulfites in Chinese people is the overuse and abuse of sulfites by the food industry. The current MPL of sulfites in GB 2760-2011 protects the health of most populations.

  13. A Quantitative Risk Analysis of Deficient Contractor Business System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-04-30

    August). Risk management guide for DoD acquisition. Washington, DC: Author. Appendix A. ANSI/ EIA - 748 Earned Value Management System (EVMS) Guidelines...Fleming & Koppelmann, 2005, pp. 191–214) ANSI/ EIA - 748 GUIDELINES ORGANIZATION Criterion 1. Define the authorized work elements for the agency. A WBS...12 Future Research Research Topic 2 Under ANSI/ EIA - 748 , Earned Value Management Systems (EVMS) must comply with 32 guidelines. When a

  14. The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trigg, M. A.; Birch, C. E.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P. J.; Winsemius, H. C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M. S.; Simpson, A. L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T. J.

    2016-09-01

    Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.

  15. Environmental risk assessment of antibiotics: an intensive care unit analysis.

    PubMed

    de Souza, Sandra Maria Lopes; Vasconcelos, Eliane Carvalho de; Dziedzic, Maurício; de Oliveira, Cíntia Mara Ribas

    2009-11-01

    Hospital effluents have been usually known by the microbiological pollution they cause, but only recently they have been considered a significant source of aquatic environmental pollution due to the presence of medicines in these effluents. In this context, an environmental risk assessment (ERA) is presented for the most used intravenous antibiotics in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of a hospital in Curitiba (Brazil). The amount of antibiotics used in the ICU was evaluated during 18months (June 2006 until November 2007), in order to calculate the Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC1). Antibiotic excretion data (on its original form) and the removal of the selected drugs in the sewage treatment plants based on the activated sludge system were used to calculate, respectively, PEC2 and PEC2r. The Predicted No-Effect Concentration (PNEC) of pharmaceuticals was also considered to assess the environmental risk by calculating the PEC/PNEC ratios. All PECs were 1ngL(-1). The worst-case PEC estimations (PEC1 and PEC2) were observed for sodic ceftriaxone, sodic cefazolin, meropenem, ampicillin, cefepime and sodic piperacillin. PEC/PNEC ratios showed that, given the present pattern of usage, high aquatic environmental risk is expected for these antibiotics. Further studies should be carried out to elucidate their contribution to increasing antimicrobial multi-drug-resistant species.

  16. Expected productivity-based risk analysis in conceptual design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wertz, Julie; Miller, David

    2006-07-01

    To be effectively used in design decisions, it is important to bring risk into the design process as a quantitative parameter that engineers can both understand and trade. One parameter that is often used when making design decisions is the productivity of a design. If instead of only the nominal value, it were possible to examine the expected value of the productivity metric, taking into account failures and risk items, the concept of risk could be brought into the design process in a very quantitative and tradable way. While the expected productivity is easy to calculate for a simple system, it is more complex if the system has a path-dependent productivity function. An approach has been developed to model the expected productivity of systems with path-dependent productivities, in an accurate and efficient manner. This approach has been tested against Monte Carlo simulations with excellent results. This paper discusses the need for the new modeling methodology, the details of the methodology that has been developed, and an example of how to use expected productivity in a trade study for a real mission, the Terrestrial Planet Finder Interferometer.

  17. Risk based analysis: A rational approach to site cleanup

    SciTech Connect

    Arulanatham, R.; So, E.

    1994-12-31

    Soil and groundwater pollution in urban areas often can pose a threat to either human health or water quality or both. This soil and groundwater cleanup can be a very lengthy process and requires significant economic resources. The cleanup levels or requirements required by one agency sometimes do not match that required by the other agency, especially those for soil pollution. The involvement of several agencies at different times during the reclamation process has often diminished the cost-effectiveness of the reclamation efforts. In an attempt to bring some solutions to minimize this kind of problem (which has been experienced by both the authors) the staff of the Alameda County Department of Environmental Health and the Regional Water Quality Control Board, San Francisco Bay Region, has jointly developed some workable guidelines to self-assist the responsible parties in deriving target cleanup goals that are both human health (or other ecological receptor) and water quality protective. The following is a 6-step summary of the methodology to assist the responsible parties in properly managing their pollution problem. These guidelines include: (1) site characterization; (2) initial risk-based screening of contaminants; (3) derivation of health and/or ecological risk-based cleanup goals; (4) derivation of groundwater quality-based cleanup goals; (5) site cleanup goals and site remediation; and (6) risk management decisions.

  18. Association between cholesterol intake and pancreatic cancer risk: evidence from a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hongqiang; Qin, Shiyong; Wang, Minghai; Zhang, Tao; Zhang, Shuguang

    2015-02-04

    Quantification of the association between the intake of cholesterol and risk of pancreatic cancer is still conflicting. We therefore conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the evidence from epidemiological studies of cholesterol intake and the risk of pancreatic cancer. Pertinent studies were delivered by PubMed and Web of Knowledge issued through April of 2014. A random effects model was used to process the data for analysis. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias were conducted. Dose-response relationship was assessed by restricted cubic spline and variance-weighted least squares regression analysis. With 4513 pancreatic cases exemplified, 16 articles were applied in the meta-analysis. Pooled results suggest that cholesterol intake level was significantly associated with the risk of pancreatic cancer [summary relative risk (RR) = 1.371, 95%CI = 1.155-1.627, I(2) = 58.2%], especially in America [summary RR = 1.302, 95%CI = 1.090-1.556]. A linear dose-response relation was attested that the risk of pancreatic cancer rises by 8% with 100 mg/day of cholesterol intake. [summary RR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.04-1.13]. In conclusion, our analysis suggests that a high intake of cholesterol might increase the risk of pancreatic cancer, especially in America.

  19. Cigarette smoking, N-acetyltransferase 2 genotypes, and breast cancer risk: pooled analysis and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Ambrosone, Christine B; Kropp, Silke; Yang, Jun; Yao, Song; Shields, Peter G; Chang-Claude, Jenny

    2008-01-01

    Approximately 10 years ago, it was noted that smoking increased risk of breast cancer among women with N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) slow acetylation genotypes. This report was followed by a number of studies to address this question. We pooled data from 10 existing studies and also conducted a meta-analysis of 13 studies published from 1996 to October 2006 that were conducted among women, were published in English, and had adequate information on smoking and NAT2 genotyping. Raw data were requested from authors. Unconditional logistic regression was done for pooled analysis, and random effect models was done for meta-analysis. Study heterogeneity was assessed, and sensitivity tests were done when subgroups were excluded from the analysis. In the pooled analysis, there was a significant interaction between smoking, NAT2 genotype, and risk of breast cancer [pack-years (continuous variable, P(interaction) = 0.03)], with higher pack-years significantly associated with an increased risk of breast cancer among women with NAT2 slow genotypes (pooled analysis relative risk, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.04). These findings were supported by the meta-analysis including all studies; pack-years were significantly associated with risk among slow acetylators in a dose-dependent fashion (meta-analysis relative risk, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-1.68 for > or =20 pack-years versus never smokers), but not among rapid acetylators. Similar relationships were noted for smoking status (ever, never) and duration of smoking. Our results show that cigarette smoking is associated with an increase in breast cancer risk among women with NAT2 slow acetylation genotypes. Because slow NAT2 genotypes are present in 50% to 60% of Caucasian populations, smoking is likely to play an important role in breast cancer etiology.

  20. Application of risk assessment and decision analysis to aquatic nuisance species.

    PubMed

    Suedel, Burton C; Bridges, Todd S; Kim, Jongbum; Payne, Barry S; Miller, Andrew C

    2007-01-01

    The spread of nonindigenous (nonnative) species introduced into the United States is a significant and growing national problem and results in lost agricultural productivity, increased health problems, native species extinctions, and expensive prevention and eradication efforts. Thousands of nonindigenous species have either become established or spread, and introduction of aquatic nuisance species (ANS) into freshwater lakes threaten aquatic biodiversity. Expanding global trade is likely to increase the number of species that are spread across the globe, so the need to develop an approach to predict potential ANS invasions is great. Risk assessments currently being used to assess ANS risk rely on qualitative or semiquantitative information and expert opinion; thus, such approaches lack transparency and repeatability. A more quantitative approach is needed to augment the qualitative approaches currently in use. A quantitative approach with the use of the traditional ecological risk assessment (traditional ERA) framework combined with decision analysis tools was developed for assessing ANS risks in which the causative ecological risk agent is an organism rather than a chemical. This paper presents a systematic risk assessment framework that includes structured decision analysis to help organize and analyze pertinent data, state assumptions, address uncertainties in estimating the probability of an undesired ANS introduction, or spread and integrate these outputs with stakeholder values. This paper also describes when and how decision analysis tools can be used in such assessments for ANS. This framework and methodology will enable risk managers to systematically evaluate and compare alternatives and actions supporting ANS risk management and thus credibly prioritize resources.

  1. Association between the CYP1B1 polymorphisms and risk of cancer: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jie-Ying; Yang, Yu; Liu, Zhi-Zhong; Xie, Jian-Jun; Du, Ya-Ping; Wang, Wei

    2015-04-01

    The previous, published data on the association between CYP1B1 polymorphisms and cancer risk remained controversial. To derive a more precise estimation of the association between the CYP1B1 polymorphisms and cancer risk, we performed a meta-analysis to investigate the association between cancer susceptibility and CYP1B1 Leu432Val, Asn453Ser, Arg48Gly, and Ala119Ser polymorphisms. For Asn453Ser and Arg48Gly polymorphisms, significantly decreased endometrial cancer was observed among Caucasians. For Ala119Ser polymorphism, we found that individuals with the minor variant genotypes had a high risk of prostate cancer. For Leu432Val polymorphism, we found that individuals with the minor variant genotypes had a higher risk of endometrial cancer and lung cancer and had a lower risk of ovarian cancer. In summary, this meta-analysis suggests that Leu432Val polymorphism is associated with ovarian cancer, lung cancer, and endometrial cancer risk; Asn453Ser and Arg48Gly polymorphisms are associated with endometrial cancer risk among Caucasians, Ala119Ser polymorphism is associated with prostate cancer risk, and Ala119Ser polymorphism is associated with breast cancer risk in Caucasians. In addition, our work also points out the importance of new studies for Ala119Ser polymorphism in endometrial cancer, because high heterogeneity was observed (I (2) > 75 %).

  2. Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.

  3. Analysis of health impact inputs to the US Department of Energy's risk information system

    SciTech Connect

    Droppo, J.G. Jr.; Buck, J.W.; Strenge, D.L.; Siegel, M.R.

    1990-08-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is in the process of completing a survey of environmental problems, referred to as the Environmental Survey, at their facilities across the country. The DOE Risk Information System (RIS) is being used to prioritize these environmental problems identified in the Environmental Survey's findings. This report contains a discussion of site-specific public health risk parameters and the rationale for their inclusion in the RIS. These parameters are based on computed potential impacts obtained with the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS). MEPAS is a computer-based methodology for evaluating the potential exposures resulting from multimedia environmental transport of hazardous materials. This report has three related objectives: document the role of MEPAS in the RIS framework, report the results of the analysis of alternative risk parameters that led to the current RIS risk parameters, and describe analysis of uncertainties in the risk-related parameters. 20 refs., 17 figs., 10 tabs.

  4. In-group rationalizations of risk and indoor tanning: A textual analysis of an online forum.

    PubMed

    Carcioppolo, Nick; Chudnovskaya, Elena V; Martinez Gonzalez, Andrea; Stephan, Tyler

    2016-07-01

    Unlike other health behaviors, there does not appear to be a strong relationship between perceived skin cancer risk and reduction or cessation of indoor tanning bed use. This study seeks to address this inconsistency by determining how indoor tanning bed users rationalize skin cancer risk with their tanning behavior. Qualitative textual analysis of indoor tanning message board posts (N = 330) revealed varied perceptions of risk, including acknowledging the risk of indoor tanning; denying or downplaying risk, often citing perceived health benefits associated with tanning; blaming outside forces for cancer, such as lotion or genetics; and fatalistic beliefs about cancer. These results highlight the nuanced relationship between perceived skin cancer risk and indoor tanning bed use.

  5. A Hybrid Latent Class Analysis Modeling Approach to Analyze Urban Expressway Crash Risk.

    PubMed

    Yu, Rongjie; Wang, Xuesong; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2017-04-01

    Crash risk analysis is rising as a hot research topic as it could reveal the relationships between traffic flow characteristics and crash occurrence risk, which is beneficial to understand crash mechanisms which would further refine the design of Active Traffic Management System (ATMS). However, the majority of the current crash risk analysis studies have ignored the impact of geometric characteristics on crash risk estimation while recent studies proved that crash occurrence risk was affected by the various alignment features. In this study, a hybrid Latent Class Analysis (LCA) modeling approach was proposed to account for the heterogeneous effects of geometric characteristics. Crashes were first segmented into homogenous subgroups, where the optimal number of latent classes was identified based on bootstrap likelihood ratio tests. Then, separate crash risk analysis models were developed using Bayesian random parameter logistic regression technique; data from Shanghai urban expressway system were employed to conduct the empirical study. Different crash risk contributing factors were unveiled by the hybrid LCA approach and better model goodness-of-fit was obtained while comparing to an overall total crash model. Finally, benefits of the proposed hybrid LCA approach were discussed.

  6. Maternal smoking and increased risk of sudden infant death syndrome: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kui; Wang, Xianmin

    2013-05-01

    Maternal smoking is detrimental to the development of fetuses and neonates. This meta-analysis was performed to measure the accumulated association of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) risk with both prenatal and postnatal maternal smoking. The odds ratio (OR) corresponding to the 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to assess the associations between maternal smoking and SIDS risk. The statistical heterogeneity among studies was assessed with the Q-test and I(2) statistics. The data for this meta-analysis were available from 35 case-control studies. The prenatal and postnatal maternal smoking was associated with a significantly increased risk of SIDS (OR=2.25, 95% CI=2.03-2.50 for prenatal maternal smoking analysis, and OR=1.97, 95% CI=1.77-2.19 for postnatal maternal smoking analysis, respectively) by random effects model. After stratified analyses, regardless of prenatal or postnatal smoking, heavy cigarette consumption increased the risk of SIDS and significantly elevated SIDS risk was found to be associated with co-sleeping with postnatal smoking mothers. Our results suggested that maternal smoking were associated with elevated SIDS risk, the effects were dose-dependent. In addition, SIDS risk was significantly increased in infants co-sleeping with postnatal smoking mothers.

  7. RAMPART (TM): Risk Assessment Method-Property Analysis and Ranking Tool v.4.0

    SciTech Connect

    Carson, Susan D.; Hunter, Regina L.; Link, Madison D.; Browitt, Robert D.

    2007-09-30

    RAMPART{trademark}, Risk Assessment Method-property Analysis and Ranking Tool, is a new type of computer software package for the assessment of risk to buildings. RAMPART{trademark} has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA). RAMPART {trademark} has been designed and developed to be a risk-based decision support tool that requires no risk analysis expertise on the part of the user. The RAMPART{trademark} user interface elicits information from the user about the building. The RAMPART{trademark} expert system is a set of rules that embodies GSA corporate knowledge and SNL's risk assessment experience. The RAMPART{trademark} database contains both data entered by the user during a building analysis session and large sets of natural hazard and crime data. RAMPART{trademark} algorithms use these data to assess the risk associated with a given building in the face of certain hazards. Risks arising from five natural hazards (earthquake, hurricane, winter storm, tornado and flood); crime (inside and outside the building); fire and terrorism are calculated. These hazards may cause losses of various kinds. RAMPART{trademark} considers death, injury, loss of mission, loss of property, loss of contents, loss of building use, and first-responder loss. The results of each analysis are presented graphically on the screen and in a written report.

  8. Space Weather Influence on Power Systems: Prediction, Risk Analysis, and Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yatsenko, Vitaliy

    2016-04-01

    This report concentrates on dynamic probabilistic risk analysis of optical elements for complex characterization of damages using physical model of solid state lasers and predictable level of ionizing radiation and space weather. The following main subjects will be covered by our report: (a) solid-state laser model; (b) mathematical models for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; and (c) software for modeling and prediction of ionizing radiation. A probabilistic risk assessment method for solid-state lasers is presented with consideration of some deterministic and stochastic factors. Probabilistic risk assessment is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in solid-state lasers for the purpose of cost-e®ectively improving their safety and performance. This method based on the Conditional Value-at-Risk measure (CVaR) and the expected loss exceeding Value-at-Risk (VaR). We propose to use a new dynamical-information approach for radiation damage risk assessment of laser elements by cosmic radiation. Our approach includes the following steps: laser modeling, modeling of ionizing radiation in°uences on laser elements, probabilistic risk assessment methods, and risk minimization. For computer simulation of damage processes at microscopic and macroscopic levels the following methods are used: () statistical; (b) dynamical; (c) optimization; (d) acceleration modeling, and (e) mathematical modeling of laser functioning. Mathematical models of space ionizing radiation in°uence on laser elements were developed for risk assessment in laser safety analysis. This is a so-called `black box' or `input-output' models, which seeks only to reproduce the behaviour of the system's output in response to changes in its inputs. The model inputs are radiation in°uences on laser systems and output parameters are dynamical characteristics of the solid laser. Algorithms and software for optimal structure and parameters of

  9. Adversarial Geospatial Abduction Problems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-01-01

    Technology, Vol. , No. , 20. 38 · Paulo Shakarian et al. Rossmo, D. K. and Rombouts, S. 2008. Geographic Profiling. In Enviromental Criminology and Crime...mlsapino/Conferma-I-fascia/TIST.pdf). Stollsteimer, J. F. 1963. A Working Model for Plant Numbers and Locations. Journal of Farm Economics 45, 3 (Aug.), 631

  10. Adversaries in Networks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-08-01

    academic year visiting UC Berkeley when Prof. Tong took his sabbatical there, where he had the privilege of working with Prof. David Tse. Oliver enjoys...juggling, puzzles, sailing, change-ringing, procrastinating , and long walks on the beach. iii 7 For the best parents in the world, who happen to be... scale example using the IEEE 14 bus network. For the control center, we present simulation results that compare different detection schemes based on the

  11. Adversaries or Allies?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Armstrong, Roger

    1991-01-01

    Describes a role-playing simulation of a public meeting where community members are concerned about toxic material dumping. Use of the simulation in postgraduate management courses to emphasize the importance of trust between people and between groups in work situations is discussed. (four references) (LRW)

  12. Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

  13. PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSALS - a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trinchero, P.; Delos, A.; Tartakovsky, D. M.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Bolster, D.; Dentz, M.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Molinero, J.

    2009-12-01

    The storage of contaminant material in superficial or sub-superficial repositories, such as tailing piles for mine waste or disposal sites for low and intermediate nuclear waste, poses a potential threat for the surrounding biosphere. The minimization of these risks can be achieved by supporting decision-makers with quantitative tools capable to incorporate all source of uncertainty within a rigorous probabilistic framework. A case study is presented where we assess the risks associated to the superficial storage of hazardous waste close to a populated area. The intrinsic complexity of the problem, involving many events with different spatial and time scales and many uncertainty parameters is overcome by using a formal PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) procedure that allows decomposing the system into a number of key events. Hence, the failure of the system is directly linked to the potential contamination of one of the three main receptors: the underlying karst aquifer, a superficial stream that flows near the storage piles and a protection area surrounding a number of wells used for water supply. The minimal cut sets leading to the failure of the system are obtained by defining a fault-tree that incorporates different events including the failure of the engineered system (e.g. cover of the piles) and the failure of the geological barrier (e.g. clay layer that separates the bottom of the pile from the karst formation). Finally the probability of failure is quantitatively assessed combining individual independent or conditional probabilities that are computed numerically or borrowed from reliability database.

  14. A Consistent Approach for Security Risk Assessments of Dams and Related Critical Infrastructure

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-01

    Washington, DC 20598, USA. Enrique.Matheu@hq.dhs.gov ABSTRACT: The Common Risk Model for Dams ( CRM -D), developed as a result of collaboration between the U.S...relationships among these variables. The CRM -D can effectively quantify the benefits of implementing a particular risk mitigation strategy and...the methodology to characterize the complexities of the adversary threat and the ability to interdict their actions. When first developed, CRM -D

  15. Risk analysis for dry snow slab avalanche release by skier triggering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McClung, David

    2013-04-01

    Risk analysis is of primary importance for skier triggering of avalanches since human triggering is responsible for about 90% of deaths from slab avalanches in Europe and North America. Two key measureable quantities about dry slab avalanche release prior to initiation are the depth to the weak layer and the slope angle. Both are important in risk analysis. As the slope angle increases, the probability of avalanche release increases dramatically. As the slab depth increases, the consequences increase if an avalanche releases. Among the simplest risk definitions is (Vick, 2002): Risk = (Probability of failure) x (Consequences of failure). Here, these two components of risk are the probability or chance of avalanche release and the consequences given avalanche release. In this paper, for the first time, skier triggered avalanches were analyzed from probability theory and its relation to risk for both the D and . The data consisted of two quantities : (,D) taken from avalanche fracture line profiles after an avalanche has taken place. Two data sets from accidentally skier triggered avalanches were considered: (1) 718 for and (2) a set of 1242 values of D which represent average values along the fracture line. The values of D were both estimated (about 2/3) and measured (about 1/3) by ski guides from Canadian Mountain Holidays CMH). I also analyzed 1231 accidentally skier triggered avalanches reported by CMH ski guides for avalanche size (representing destructive potential) on the Canadian scale. The size analysis provided a second analysis of consequences to verify that using D. The results showed that there is an intermediate range of both D and with highest risk. ForD, the risk (product of consequences and probability of occurrence) is highest for D in the approximate range 0.6 m - 1.0 m. The consequences are low for lower values of D and the chance of release is low for higher values of D. Thus, the highest product is in the intermediate range. For slope angles

  16. Risk Informed Design and Analysis Criteria for Nuclear Structures

    SciTech Connect

    Salmon, Michael W.

    2015-06-17

    Target performance can be achieved by defining design basis ground motion from results of a probabilistic seismic hazards assessment, and introducing known levels of conservatism in the design above the DBE. ASCE 4, 43, DOE-STD-1020 defined the DBE at 4x10-4 and introduce only slight levels of conservatism in response. ASCE 4, 43, DOE-STD-1020 assume code capacities shoot for about 98% NEP. There is a need to have a uniform target (98% NEP) for code developers (ACI, AISC, etc.) to aim for. In considering strengthening options, one must also consider cost/risk reduction achieved.

  17. QRA model-based risk impact analysis of traffic flow in urban road tunnels.

    PubMed

    Meng, Qiang; Qu, Xiaobo; Yong, Kum Thong; Wong, Yoke Heng

    2011-12-01

    Road tunnels are vital infrastructures providing underground vehicular passageways for commuters and motorists. Various quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models have recently been developed and employed to evaluate the safety levels of road tunnels in terms of societal risk (as measured by the F/N curve). For a particular road tunnel, traffic volume and proportion of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) are two adjustable parameters that may significantly affect the societal risk, and are thus very useful in implementing risk reduction solutions. To evaluate the impact the two contributing factors have on the risk, this article first presents an approach that employs a QRA model to generate societal risk for a series of possible combinations of the two factors. Some combinations may result in F/N curves that do not fulfill a predetermined safety target. This article thus proposes an "excess risk index" in order to quantify the road tunnel risk magnitudes that do not pass the safety target. The two-factor impact analysis can be illustrated by a contour chart based on the excess risk. Finally, the methodology has been applied to Singapore's KPE road tunnel and the results show that in terms of meeting the test safety target for societal risk, the traffic capacity of the tunnel should be no more than 1,200 vehs/h/lane, with a maximum proportion of 18% HGVs.

  18. Interaction analysis of the new pooled cohort equations for 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimation: a simulation analysis

    PubMed Central

    Schiros, Chun G; Denney, Thomas S; Gupta, Himanshu

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate the individual and interacting impacts of the continuous variables (age, total cholesterol (total-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and systolic blood pressure(BP)) on 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and better understand the pattern of predicted 10-year risk with change of each variable using recently published new pooled cohort equations. Design Simulation analysis was performed across the whole range of the boundary limits suggested for the continuous variables for groupings based on race and gender in the pooled cohort 10-year risk equations. Setting Computer-based simulation analysis. Participants Data were generated by simulation using prespecified variable ranges. Intervention Data simulation and visual display of the hazard analysis. Main outcome measures Interactions of age with other variables were analysed using multidimensional visualisation and hazard analysis. Results In African–American females, due to the interaction of age with HDL-C, treated BP and untreated BP, increasing age may not always increase 10-year risk. Furthermore, in the same cohort, increasing HDL-C level may result in higher 10-year risk for older individuals. For Caucasian females, due to square of Ln (age) term in the equation, the age-risk curve does not monotonically increase with age. The vertex is within the given age range of 40–79 years for a certain range of total-C and HDL-C, indicating that age may not always result in increased predicted 10-year risk. Conclusions The new pooled cohort equations are sophisticated as they take into account the interactions of the continuous variables in predicting 10-year risk. We find situations where the estimated 10-year risk does not follow the general secular trends. The impact of such interesting patterns may be substantial and therefore further exploration is needed as it has direct implications in clinical management for primary prevention. PMID:25941176

  19. Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials: Report from an International Workshop on the Role of Alternative Testing Strategies for Advancement: Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Shatkin, J. A.; Ong, Kimberly J.; Beaudrie, Christian; Clippinger, Amy J.; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Haber, Lynne T.; Hill, Myriam; Holden, Patricia; Kennedy, Alan J.; Kim, Baram; MacDonell, Margaret; Powers, Christina M.; Sharma, Monita; Sheremeta, Lorraine; Stone, Vicki; Sultan, Yasir; Turley, Audrey; White, Ronald H.

    2016-08-01

    The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATS use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article.

  20. Anticipating risk for human subjects participating in clinical research: application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis.

    PubMed

    Cody, Robert J

    2006-03-01

    Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a method applied in various industries to anticipate and mitigate risk. This methodology can be more systematically applied to the protection of human subjects in research. The purpose of FMEA is simple: prevent problems before they occur. By applying FMEA process analysis to the elements of a specific research protocol, the failure severity, occurrence, and detection rates can be estimated for calculation of a "risk priority number" (RPN). Methods can then be identified to reduce the RPN to levels where the risk/benefit ratio favors human subject benefit, to a greater magnitude than existed in the pre-analysis risk profile. At the very least, the approach provides a checklist of issues that can be individualized for specific research protocols or human subject populations.