Using Machine Learning in Adversarial Environments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Warren Leon Davis

Intrusion/anomaly detection systems are among the first lines of cyber defense. Commonly, they either use signatures or machine learning (ML) to identify threats, but fail to account for sophisticated attackers trying to circumvent them. We propose to embed machine learning within a game theoretic framework that performs adversarial modeling, develops methods for optimizing operational response based on ML, and integrates the resulting optimization codebase into the existing ML infrastructure developed by the Hybrid LDRD. Our approach addresses three key shortcomings of ML in adversarial settings: 1) resulting classifiers are typically deterministic and, therefore, easy to reverse engineer; 2) ML approachesmore » only address the prediction problem, but do not prescribe how one should operationalize predictions, nor account for operational costs and constraints; and 3) ML approaches do not model attackers’ response and can be circumvented by sophisticated adversaries. The principal novelty of our approach is to construct an optimization framework that blends ML, operational considerations, and a model predicting attackers reaction, with the goal of computing optimal moving target defense. One important challenge is to construct a realistic model of an adversary that is tractable, yet realistic. We aim to advance the science of attacker modeling by considering game-theoretic methods, and by engaging experimental subjects with red teaming experience in trying to actively circumvent an intrusion detection system, and learning a predictive model of such circumvention activities. In addition, we will generate metrics to test that a particular model of an adversary is consistent with available data.« less

Towards an Iterated Game Model with Multiple Adversaries in Smart-World Systems.

PubMed

He, Xiaofei; Yang, Xinyu; Yu, Wei; Lin, Jie; Yang, Qingyu

2018-02-24

Diverse and varied cyber-attacks challenge the operation of the smart-world system that is supported by Internet-of-Things (IoT) (smart cities, smart grid, smart transportation, etc.) and must be carefully and thoughtfully addressed before widespread adoption of the smart-world system can be fully realized. Although a number of research efforts have been devoted to defending against these threats, a majority of existing schemes focus on the development of a specific defensive strategy to deal with specific, often singular threats. In this paper, we address the issue of coalitional attacks, which can be launched by multiple adversaries cooperatively against the smart-world system such as smart cities. Particularly, we propose a game-theory based model to capture the interaction among multiple adversaries, and quantify the capacity of the defender based on the extended Iterated Public Goods Game (IPGG) model. In the formalized game model, in each round of the attack, a participant can either cooperate by participating in the coalitional attack, or defect by standing aside. In our work, we consider the generic defensive strategy that has a probability to detect the coalitional attack. When the coalitional attack is detected, all participating adversaries are penalized. The expected payoff of each participant is derived through the equalizer strategy that provides participants with competitive benefits. The multiple adversaries with the collusive strategy are also considered. Via a combination of theoretical analysis and experimentation, our results show that no matter which strategies the adversaries choose (random strategy, win-stay-lose-shift strategy, or even the adaptive equalizer strategy), our formalized game model is capable of enabling the defender to greatly reduce the maximum value of the expected average payoff to the adversaries via provisioning sufficient defensive resources, which is reflected by setting a proper penalty factor against the adversaries

GANViz: A Visual Analytics Approach to Understand the Adversarial Game.

PubMed

Wang, Junpeng; Gou, Liang; Yang, Hao; Shen, Han-Wei

2018-06-01

Generative models bear promising implications to learn data representations in an unsupervised fashion with deep learning. Generative Adversarial Nets (GAN) is one of the most popular frameworks in this arena. Despite the promising results from different types of GANs, in-depth understanding on the adversarial training process of the models remains a challenge to domain experts. The complexity and the potential long-time training process of the models make it hard to evaluate, interpret, and optimize them. In this work, guided by practical needs from domain experts, we design and develop a visual analytics system, GANViz, aiming to help experts understand the adversarial process of GANs in-depth. Specifically, GANViz evaluates the model performance of two subnetworks of GANs, provides evidence and interpretations of the models' performance, and empowers comparative analysis with the evidence. Through our case studies with two real-world datasets, we demonstrate that GANViz can provide useful insight into helping domain experts understand, interpret, evaluate, and potentially improve GAN models.

Towards an Iterated Game Model with Multiple Adversaries in Smart-World Systems †

PubMed Central

Yang, Xinyu; Yu, Wei; Lin, Jie; Yang, Qingyu

2018-01-01

Diverse and varied cyber-attacks challenge the operation of the smart-world system that is supported by Internet-of-Things (IoT) (smart cities, smart grid, smart transportation, etc.) and must be carefully and thoughtfully addressed before widespread adoption of the smart-world system can be fully realized. Although a number of research efforts have been devoted to defending against these threats, a majority of existing schemes focus on the development of a specific defensive strategy to deal with specific, often singular threats. In this paper, we address the issue of coalitional attacks, which can be launched by multiple adversaries cooperatively against the smart-world system such as smart cities. Particularly, we propose a game-theory based model to capture the interaction among multiple adversaries, and quantify the capacity of the defender based on the extended Iterated Public Goods Game (IPGG) model. In the formalized game model, in each round of the attack, a participant can either cooperate by participating in the coalitional attack, or defect by standing aside. In our work, we consider the generic defensive strategy that has a probability to detect the coalitional attack. When the coalitional attack is detected, all participating adversaries are penalized. The expected payoff of each participant is derived through the equalizer strategy that provides participants with competitive benefits. The multiple adversaries with the collusive strategy are also considered. Via a combination of theoretical analysis and experimentation, our results show that no matter which strategies the adversaries choose (random strategy, win-stay-lose-shift strategy, or even the adaptive equalizer strategy), our formalized game model is capable of enabling the defender to greatly reduce the maximum value of the expected average payoff to the adversaries via provisioning sufficient defensive resources, which is reflected by setting a proper penalty factor against the adversaries

Potential criminal adversaries of nuclear programs: a portrait

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkins, B.M.

1980-07-01

This paper examines the possibility that terrorists or other kinds of criminals might attempt to seize or sabotage a nuclear facility, steal nuclear material, or carry out other criminal activities in the nuclear domain which has created special problems for the security of nuclear programs. This paper analyzes the potential threat. Our tasks was to describe the potential criminal adversary, or rather the spectrum of potential adversaries who conceivably might carry out malevolent criminal actions against nuclear programs and facilities. We were concerned with both the motivations as well as the material and operational capabilities likely to be displayed bymore » various categories of potential nuclear adversaries.« less

Extracting Knowledge from Graph Data in Adversarial Settings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skillicorn, David

Graph data captures connections and relationships among individuals, and between individuals and objects, places, and times. Because many of the properties f graphs are emergent, they are resistant to manipulation by adversaries. This robustness comes at the expense of more-complex analysis algorithms. We describe several approaches to analysing graph data, illustrating with examples from the relationships within al Qaeda.

Generative Adversarial Networks for Noise Reduction in Low-Dose CT.

PubMed

Wolterink, Jelmer M; Leiner, Tim; Viergever, Max A; Isgum, Ivana

2017-12-01

Noise is inherent to low-dose CT acquisition. We propose to train a convolutional neural network (CNN) jointly with an adversarial CNN to estimate routine-dose CT images from low-dose CT images and hence reduce noise. A generator CNN was trained to transform low-dose CT images into routine-dose CT images using voxelwise loss minimization. An adversarial discriminator CNN was simultaneously trained to distinguish the output of the generator from routine-dose CT images. The performance of this discriminator was used as an adversarial loss for the generator. Experiments were performed using CT images of an anthropomorphic phantom containing calcium inserts, as well as patient non-contrast-enhanced cardiac CT images. The phantom and patients were scanned at 20% and 100% routine clinical dose. Three training strategies were compared: the first used only voxelwise loss, the second combined voxelwise loss and adversarial loss, and the third used only adversarial loss. The results showed that training with only voxelwise loss resulted in the highest peak signal-to-noise ratio with respect to reference routine-dose images. However, CNNs trained with adversarial loss captured image statistics of routine-dose images better. Noise reduction improved quantification of low-density calcified inserts in phantom CT images and allowed coronary calcium scoring in low-dose patient CT images with high noise levels. Testing took less than 10 s per CT volume. CNN-based low-dose CT noise reduction in the image domain is feasible. Training with an adversarial network improves the CNNs ability to generate images with an appearance similar to that of reference routine-dose CT images.

Learning consensus in adversarial environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vamvoudakis, Kyriakos G.; García Carrillo, Luis R.; Hespanha, João. P.

2013-05-01

This work presents a game theory-based consensus problem for leaderless multi-agent systems in the presence of adversarial inputs that are introducing disturbance to the dynamics. Given the presence of enemy components and the possibility of malicious cyber attacks compromising the security of networked teams, a position agreement must be reached by the networked mobile team based on environmental changes. The problem is addressed under a distributed decision making framework that is robust to possible cyber attacks, which has an advantage over centralized decision making in the sense that a decision maker is not required to access information from all the other decision makers. The proposed framework derives three tuning laws for every agent; one associated with the cost, one associated with the controller, and one with the adversarial input.

Semantic policy and adversarial modeling for cyber threat identification and avoidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeFrancesco, Anton; McQueary, Bruce

2009-05-01

Today's enterprise networks undergo a relentless barrage of attacks from foreign and domestic adversaries. These attacks may be perpetrated with little to no funding, but may wreck incalculable damage upon the enterprises security, network infrastructure, and services. As more services come online, systems that were once in isolation now provide information that may be combined dynamically with information from other systems to create new meaning on the fly. Security issues are compounded by the potential to aggregate individual pieces of information and infer knowledge at a higher classification than any of its constituent parts. To help alleviate these challenges, in this paper we introduce the notion of semantic policy and discuss how it's use is evolving from a robust approach to access control to preempting and combating attacks in the cyber domain, The introduction of semantic policy and adversarial modeling to network security aims to ask 'where is the network most vulnerable', 'how is the network being attacked', and 'why is the network being attacked'. The first aspect of our approach is integration of semantic policy into enterprise security to augment traditional network security with an overall awareness of policy access and violations. This awareness allows the semantic policy to look at the big picture - analyzing trends and identifying critical relations in system wide data access. The second aspect of our approach is to couple adversarial modeling with semantic policy to move beyond reactive security measures and into a proactive identification of system weaknesses and areas of vulnerability. By utilizing Bayesian-based methodologies, the enterprise wide meaning of data and semantic policy is applied to probability and high-level risk identification. This risk identification will help mitigate potential harm to enterprise networks by enabling resources to proactively isolate, lock-down, and secure systems that are most vulnerable.

Resilient Distributed Estimation Through Adversary Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yuan; Kar, Soummya; Moura, Jose M. F.

2018-05-01

This paper studies resilient multi-agent distributed estimation of an unknown vector parameter when a subset of the agents is adversarial. We present and analyze a Flag Raising Distributed Estimator ($\\mathcal{FRDE}$) that allows the agents under attack to perform accurate parameter estimation and detect the adversarial agents. The $\\mathcal{FRDE}$ algorithm is a consensus+innovations estimator in which agents combine estimates of neighboring agents (consensus) with local sensing information (innovations). We establish that, under $\\mathcal{FRDE}$, either the uncompromised agents' estimates are almost surely consistent or the uncompromised agents detect compromised agents if and only if the network of uncompromised agents is connected and globally observable. Numerical examples illustrate the performance of $\\mathcal{FRDE}$.

Arguing with Adversaries: Aikido, Rhetoric, and the Art of Peace

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kroll, Barry M.

2008-01-01

The Japanese martial art of aikido affords a framework for understanding argument as harmonization rather than confrontation. Two movements, circling away ("tenkan") and entering in ("irimi"), suggest tactics for arguing with adversaries. The ethical imperative of aikido involves protecting one's adversary from harm, using the least force…

Bring a gun to a gunfight: armed adversaries and violence across nations.

PubMed

Felson, Richard B; Berg, Mark T; Rogers, Meghan L

2014-09-01

We use homicide data and the International Crime Victimization Survey to examine the role of firearms in explaining cross-national variation in violence. We suggest that while gun violence begets gun violence, it inhibits the tendency to engage in violence without guns. We attribute the patterns to adversary effects-i.e., the tendency of offenders to take into account the threat posed by their adversaries. Multi-level analyses of victimization data support the hypothesis that living in countries with high rates of gun violence lowers an individual's risk of an unarmed assault and assaults with less lethal weapons. Analyses of aggregate data show that homicide rates and gun violence rates load on a separate underlying factor than other types of violence. The results suggest that a country's homicide rate reflects, to a large extent, the tendency of its offenders to use firearms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Creative Persuasion: A Study on Adversarial Behaviors and Strategies in Phishing Attacks

PubMed Central

Rajivan, Prashanth; Gonzalez, Cleotilde

2018-01-01

Success of phishing attacks depend on effective exploitation of human weaknesses. This research explores a largely ignored, but crucial aspect of phishing: the adversarial behavior. We aim at understanding human behaviors and strategies that adversaries use, and how these may determine the end-user response to phishing emails. We accomplish this through a novel experiment paradigm involving two phases. In the adversarial phase, 105 participants played the role of a phishing adversary who were incentivized to produce multiple phishing emails that would evade detection and persuade end-users to respond. In the end-user phase, 340 participants performed an email management task, where they examined and classified phishing emails generated by participants in phase-one along with benign emails. Participants in the adversary role, self-reported the strategies they employed in each email they created, and responded to a test of individual creativity. Data from both phases of the study was combined and analyzed, to measure the effect of adversarial behaviors on end-user response to phishing emails. We found that participants who persistently used specific attack strategies (e.g., sending notifications, use of authoritative tone, or expressing shared interest) in all their attempts were overall more successful, compared to others who explored different strategies in each attempt. We also found that strategies largely determined whether an end-user was more likely to respond to an email immediately, or delete it. Individual creativity was not a reliable predictor of adversarial performance, but it was a predictor of an adversary's ability to evade detection. In summary, the phishing example provided initially, the strategies used, and the participants' persistence with some of the strategies led to higher performance in persuading end-users to respond to phishing emails. These insights may be used to inform tools and training procedures to detect phishing strategies in

Quantitative Risk Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helms, J.

2017-02-10

The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investmentsmore » or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.« less

Multipath Very-Simplified Estimate of Adversary Sequence Interruption v. 2.1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snell, Mark K.

2017-10-10

MP VEASI is a training tool that models physical protection systems for fixed sites using Adversary Sequence Diagrams (ASDs) and then uses the ASD to find most-vulnerable adversary paths through the ASD. The identified paths have the lowest Probability of Interruption among all the paths through the ASD.

Decorrelated jet substructure tagging using adversarial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimmin, Chase; Sadowski, Peter; Baldi, Pierre; Weik, Edison; Whiteson, Daniel; Goul, Edward; Søgaard, Andreas

2017-10-01

We describe a strategy for constructing a neural network jet substructure tagger which powerfully discriminates boosted decay signals while remaining largely uncorrelated with the jet mass. This reduces the impact of systematic uncertainties in background modeling while enhancing signal purity, resulting in improved discovery significance relative to existing taggers. The network is trained using an adversarial strategy, resulting in a tagger that learns to balance classification accuracy with decorrelation. As a benchmark scenario, we consider the case where large-radius jets originating from a boosted resonance decay are discriminated from a background of nonresonant quark and gluon jets. We show that in the presence of systematic uncertainties on the background rate, our adversarially trained, decorrelated tagger considerably outperforms a conventionally trained neural network, despite having a slightly worse signal-background separation power. We generalize the adversarial training technique to include a parametric dependence on the signal hypothesis, training a single network that provides optimized, interpolatable decorrelated jet tagging across a continuous range of hypothetical resonance masses, after training on discrete choices of the signal mass.

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

2018-02-01

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Probabilistic Characterization of Adversary Behavior in Cyber Security

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyers, C A; Powers, S S; Faissol, D M

2009-10-08

The objective of this SMS effort is to provide a probabilistic characterization of adversary behavior in cyber security. This includes both quantitative (data analysis) and qualitative (literature review) components. A set of real LLNL email data was obtained for this study, consisting of several years worth of unfiltered traffic sent to a selection of addresses at ciac.org. The email data was subjected to three interrelated analyses: a textual study of the header data and subject matter, an examination of threats present in message attachments, and a characterization of the maliciousness of embedded URLs.

Adversarial Threshold Neural Computer for Molecular de Novo Design.

PubMed

Putin, Evgeny; Asadulaev, Arip; Vanhaelen, Quentin; Ivanenkov, Yan; Aladinskaya, Anastasia V; Aliper, Alex; Zhavoronkov, Alex

2018-03-30

In this article, we propose the deep neural network Adversarial Threshold Neural Computer (ATNC). The ATNC model is intended for the de novo design of novel small-molecule organic structures. The model is based on generative adversarial network architecture and reinforcement learning. ATNC uses a Differentiable Neural Computer as a generator and has a new specific block, called adversarial threshold (AT). AT acts as a filter between the agent (generator) and the environment (discriminator + objective reward functions). Furthermore, to generate more diverse molecules we introduce a new objective reward function named Internal Diversity Clustering (IDC). In this work, ATNC is tested and compared with the ORGANIC model. Both models were trained on the SMILES string representation of the molecules, using four objective functions (internal similarity, Muegge druglikeness filter, presence or absence of sp 3 -rich fragments, and IDC). The SMILES representations of 15K druglike molecules from the ChemDiv collection were used as a training data set. For the different functions, ATNC outperforms ORGANIC. Combined with the IDC, ATNC generates 72% of valid and 77% of unique SMILES strings, while ORGANIC generates only 7% of valid and 86% of unique SMILES strings. For each set of molecules generated by ATNC and ORGANIC, we analyzed distributions of four molecular descriptors (number of atoms, molecular weight, logP, and tpsa) and calculated five chemical statistical features (internal diversity, number of unique heterocycles, number of clusters, number of singletons, and number of compounds that have not been passed through medicinal chemistry filters). Analysis of key molecular descriptors and chemical statistical features demonstrated that the molecules generated by ATNC elicited better druglikeness properties. We also performed in vitro validation of the molecules generated by ATNC; results indicated that ATNC is an effective method for producing hit compounds.

78 FR 55772 - Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: “American Adversaries...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-11

... DEPARTMENT OF STATE [Public Notice 8464] Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: ``American Adversaries: West and Copley in a Transatlantic World'' SUMMARY: Notice is hereby... objects to be included in the exhibition ``American Adversaries: West and Copley in a Transatlantic World...

Networking in the Presence of Adversaries

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-12

a topological graph with linear algebraic constraints. As a practical example, such a model arises from an electric power system in which the power...flow is governed by the Kirchhoff law. When an adversary launches an MiM data attack, part of the sensor data are intercepted and substituted with

Scientific method, adversarial system, and technology assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayo, L. H.

1975-01-01

A basic framework is provided for the consideration of the purposes and techniques of scientific method and adversarial systems. Similarities and differences in these two techniques of inquiry are considered with reference to their relevance in the performance of assessments.

Gender Identity and Adversarial Sexual Beliefs as Predictors of Attitudes toward Sexual Harassment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murrell, Audrey J.; Dietz-Uhler, Beth L.

1993-01-01

Examines impact of gender identity and adversarial sexual beliefs as predictors of attitudes toward sexual harassment for 52 female and 55 male college students. Adversarial beliefs and experience with sexual harassment predict less tolerant attitudes toward harassment for males, whereas strong gender group identity and experience with harassment…

With God on our side: Religious primes reduce the envisioned physical formidability of a menacing adversary.

PubMed

Holbrook, Colin; Fessler, Daniel M T; Pollack, Jeremy

2016-01-01

The imagined support of benevolent supernatural agents attenuates anxiety and risk perception. Here, we extend these findings to judgments of the threat posed by a potentially violent adversary. Conceptual representations of bodily size and strength summarize factors that determine the relative threat posed by foes. The proximity of allies moderates the envisioned physical formidability of adversaries, suggesting that cues of access to supernatural allies will reduce the envisioned physical formidability of a threatening target. Across two studies, subtle cues of both supernatural and earthly social support reduced the envisioned physical formidability of a violent criminal. These manipulations had no effect on the perceived likelihood of encountering non-conflictual physical danger, raising the possibility that imagined supernatural support leads participants to view themselves not as shielded from encountering perilous situations, but as protected should perils arise. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are Forensic Experts Already Biased before Adversarial Legal Parties Hire Them?

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

This survey of 206 forensic psychologists tested the “filtering” effects of preexisting expert attitudes in adversarial proceedings. Results confirmed the hypothesis that evaluator attitudes toward capital punishment influence willingness to accept capital case referrals from particular adversarial parties. Stronger death penalty opposition was associated with higher willingness to conduct evaluations for the defense and higher likelihood of rejecting referrals from all sources. Conversely, stronger support was associated with higher willingness to be involved in capital cases generally, regardless of referral source. The findings raise the specter of skewed evaluator involvement in capital evaluations, where evaluators willing to do capital casework may have stronger capital punishment support than evaluators who opt out, and evaluators with strong opposition may work selectively for the defense. The results may provide a partial explanation for the “allegiance effect” in adversarial legal settings such that preexisting attitudes may contribute to partisan participation through a self-selection process. PMID:27124416

Studies and Analyses of Aided Adversarial Decision Making. Phase 2: Research on Human Trust in Automation

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-04-01

34AFRL-HE-WP-TR-1999-0216 UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY STUDIES AND ANALYSES OF AIDED ADVERSARIAL DECISION MAKING PHASE 2: RESEARCH ON...Analyses of Aided Adversarial Decision Making . C: F41624-94-D-6000 Phase 2: Research on Human Trust in Automation PE: 62202F PR: 7184 6. AUTHOR(S) TA...Buffalo. This work focused on Aided Adversarial Decision Making (AADM) in Information Warfare (1W) environments. Previous work examined informational

Learning Perfectly Secure Cryptography to Protect Communications with Adversarial Neural Cryptography

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Researches in Artificial Intelligence (AI) have achieved many important breakthroughs, especially in recent years. In some cases, AI learns alone from scratch and performs human tasks faster and better than humans. With the recent advances in AI, it is natural to wonder whether Artificial Neural Networks will be used to successfully create or break cryptographic algorithms. Bibliographic review shows the main approach to this problem have been addressed throughout complex Neural Networks, but without understanding or proving the security of the generated model. This paper presents an analysis of the security of cryptographic algorithms generated by a new technique called Adversarial Neural Cryptography (ANC). Using the proposed network, we show limitations and directions to improve the current approach of ANC. Training the proposed Artificial Neural Network with the improved model of ANC, we show that artificially intelligent agents can learn the unbreakable One-Time Pad (OTP) algorithm, without human knowledge, to communicate securely through an insecure communication channel. This paper shows in which conditions an AI agent can learn a secure encryption scheme. However, it also shows that, without a stronger adversary, it is more likely to obtain an insecure one. PMID:29695066

Learning Perfectly Secure Cryptography to Protect Communications with Adversarial Neural Cryptography.

PubMed

Coutinho, Murilo; de Oliveira Albuquerque, Robson; Borges, Fábio; García Villalba, Luis Javier; Kim, Tai-Hoon

2018-04-24

Researches in Artificial Intelligence (AI) have achieved many important breakthroughs, especially in recent years. In some cases, AI learns alone from scratch and performs human tasks faster and better than humans. With the recent advances in AI, it is natural to wonder whether Artificial Neural Networks will be used to successfully create or break cryptographic algorithms. Bibliographic review shows the main approach to this problem have been addressed throughout complex Neural Networks, but without understanding or proving the security of the generated model. This paper presents an analysis of the security of cryptographic algorithms generated by a new technique called Adversarial Neural Cryptography (ANC). Using the proposed network, we show limitations and directions to improve the current approach of ANC. Training the proposed Artificial Neural Network with the improved model of ANC, we show that artificially intelligent agents can learn the unbreakable One-Time Pad (OTP) algorithm, without human knowledge, to communicate securely through an insecure communication channel. This paper shows in which conditions an AI agent can learn a secure encryption scheme. However, it also shows that, without a stronger adversary, it is more likely to obtain an insecure one.

CARA: Cognitive Architecture for Reasoning About Adversaries

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-20

synthesis approach taken here the KIDS principle (Keep It Descriptive, Stupid ) applies, and agents and organizations are profiled in great detail...developed two algorithms to make forecasts about adversarial behavior. We developed game-theoretical approaches to reason about group behavior. We...to automatically make forecasts about group behavior together with methods to quantify the uncertainty inherent in such forecasts; • Developed

Reinforced Adversarial Neural Computer for de Novo Molecular Design.

PubMed

Putin, Evgeny; Asadulaev, Arip; Ivanenkov, Yan; Aladinskiy, Vladimir; Sanchez-Lengeling, Benjamin; Aspuru-Guzik, Alán; Zhavoronkov, Alex

2018-06-12

In silico modeling is a crucial milestone in modern drug design and development. Although computer-aided approaches in this field are well-studied, the application of deep learning methods in this research area is at the beginning. In this work, we present an original deep neural network (DNN) architecture named RANC (Reinforced Adversarial Neural Computer) for the de novo design of novel small-molecule organic structures based on the generative adversarial network (GAN) paradigm and reinforcement learning (RL). As a generator RANC uses a differentiable neural computer (DNC), a category of neural networks, with increased generation capabilities due to the addition of an explicit memory bank, which can mitigate common problems found in adversarial settings. The comparative results have shown that RANC trained on the SMILES string representation of the molecules outperforms its first DNN-based counterpart ORGANIC by several metrics relevant to drug discovery: the number of unique structures, passing medicinal chemistry filters (MCFs), Muegge criteria, and high QED scores. RANC is able to generate structures that match the distributions of the key chemical features/descriptors (e.g., MW, logP, TPSA) and lengths of the SMILES strings in the training data set. Therefore, RANC can be reasonably regarded as a promising starting point to develop novel molecules with activity against different biological targets or pathways. In addition, this approach allows scientists to save time and covers a broad chemical space populated with novel and diverse compounds.

Liberal Democracy and Objective Journalism: Partners or Adversaries?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reeb, Richard H., Jr.

Contemporary journalism, although claiming to be politically objective and neutral, has become a powerful critic of the conduct of the government, often seeming to be a force for the reordering of national priorities along leftist lines. This "adversary journalism" of the past 15 years has strayed a long way from the neutral journalism…

Evaluating the risk of patient re-identification from adverse drug event reports

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Our objective was to develop a model for measuring re-identification risk that more closely mimics the behaviour of an adversary by accounting for repeated attempts at matching and verification of matches, and apply it to evaluate the risk of re-identification for Canada’s post-marketing adverse drug event database (ADE).Re-identification is only demonstrably plausible for deaths in ADE. A matching experiment between ADE records and virtual obituaries constructed from Statistics Canada vital statistics was simulated. A new re-identification risk is considered, it assumes that after gathering all the potential matches for a patient record (all records in the obituaries that are potential matches for an ADE record), an adversary tries to verify these potential matches. Two adversary scenarios were considered: (a) a mildly motivated adversary who will stop after one verification attempt, and (b) a highly motivated adversary who will attempt to verify all the potential matches and is only limited by practical or financial considerations. Methods The mean percentage of records in ADE that had a high probability of being re-identified was computed. Results Under scenario (a), the risk of re-identification from disclosing the province, age at death, gender, and exact date of the report is quite high, but the removal of province brings down the risk significantly. By only generalizing the date of reporting to month and year and including all other variables, the risk is always low. All ADE records have a high risk of re-identification under scenario (b), but the plausibility of that scenario is limited because of the financial and practical deterrent even for highly motivated adversaries. Conclusions It is possible to disclose Canada’s adverse drug event database while ensuring that plausible re-identification risks are acceptably low. Our new re-identification risk model is suitable for such risk assessments. PMID:24094134

On the Concept and Definition of Terrorism Risk.

PubMed

Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

2015-12-01

In this article, we provide some reflections on how to define and understand the concept of terrorism risk in a professional risk assessment context. As a basis for this discussion we introduce a set of criteria that we believe should apply to any conceptualization of terrorism risk. These criteria are based on both criteria used in other areas of risk analysis and our experience with terrorism risk analysis. That is, these criteria offer our perspective. We show that several of the suggested perspectives and definitions have weaknesses in relation to these criteria. A main problem identified is the idea that terrorism risk can be conceptualized as a function of probability and consequence, not as a function of the interactions between adaptive individuals and organizations. We argue that perspectives based solely on probability and consequence should be used cautiously or not at all because they fail to reflect the essential features of the concept of terrorism risk, the threats and attacks, their consequences, and the uncertainties, all in the context of adaptation by the adversaries. These three elements should in our view constitute the main pillars of the terrorism risk concept. From this concept we can develop methods for assessing the risk by identifying a set of threats, attacks, and consequence measures associated with the possible outcome scenarios together with a description of the uncertainties and interactions between the adversaries. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Generative Adversarial Networks: An Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creswell, Antonia; White, Tom; Dumoulin, Vincent; Arulkumaran, Kai; Sengupta, Biswa; Bharath, Anil A.

2018-01-01

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) provide a way to learn deep representations without extensively annotated training data. They achieve this through deriving backpropagation signals through a competitive process involving a pair of networks. The representations that can be learned by GANs may be used in a variety of applications, including image synthesis, semantic image editing, style transfer, image super-resolution and classification. The aim of this review paper is to provide an overview of GANs for the signal processing community, drawing on familiar analogies and concepts where possible. In addition to identifying different methods for training and constructing GANs, we also point to remaining challenges in their theory and application.

RETHINKING THE ROLE OF SMALL-GROUP COLLABORATORS AND ADVERSARIES IN THE LONDON KLEINIAN DEVELOPMENT (1914-1968).

PubMed

Aguayo, Joseph; Regeczkey, Agnes

2016-07-01

The authors historically situate the London Kleinian development in terms of the small-group collaborations and adversaries that arose during the course of Melanie Klein's career. Some collaborations later became personally adversarial (e.g., those Klein had with Glover and Schmideberg); other adversarial relationships forever remained that way (with A. Freud); while still other long-term collaborations became theoretically contentious (such as with Winnicott and Heimann). After the Controversial Discussions in 1944, Klein marginalized one group of supporters (Heimann, Winnicott, and Riviere) in favor of another group (Rosenfeld, Segal, and Bion). After Klein's death in 1960, Bion maintained loyalty to Klein's ideas while quietly distancing his work from the London Klein group, immigrating to the United States in 1968. © 2016 The Psychoanalytic Quarterly, Inc.

The Effects of an Adversarial Process on Adoption Decisions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryburn, Murray

1993-01-01

Examines the legal and social work process in contested adoption proceedings, and argues that there are moral grounds for repealing provisions in British legislation on forced adoption. Considers the adversarial process that characterizes adoption hearings, the role of poverty in the lives of families whose children are admitted to foster care,…

Evaluating data distribution and drift vulnerabilities of machine learning algorithms in secure and adversarial environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Kevin; Corbin, George; Blowers, Misty

2014-05-01

Machine learning is continuing to gain popularity due to its ability to solve problems that are difficult to model using conventional computer programming logic. Much of the current and past work has focused on algorithm development, data processing, and optimization. Lately, a subset of research has emerged which explores issues related to security. This research is gaining traction as systems employing these methods are being applied to both secure and adversarial environments. One of machine learning's biggest benefits, its data-driven versus logic-driven approach, is also a weakness if the data on which the models rely are corrupted. Adversaries could maliciously influence systems which address drift and data distribution changes using re-training and online learning. Our work is focused on exploring the resilience of various machine learning algorithms to these data-driven attacks. In this paper, we present our initial findings using Monte Carlo simulations, and statistical analysis, to explore the maximal achievable shift to a classification model, as well as the required amount of control over the data.

An Extended Chemical Plant Environmental Protection Game on Addressing Uncertainties of Human Adversaries.

PubMed

Zhu, Zhengqiu; Chen, Bin; Qiu, Sihang; Wang, Rongxiao; Chen, Feiran; Wang, Yiping; Qiu, Xiaogang

2018-03-27

Chemical production activities in industrial districts pose great threats to the surrounding atmospheric environment and human health. Therefore, developing appropriate and intelligent pollution controlling strategies for the management team to monitor chemical production processes is significantly essential in a chemical industrial district. The literature shows that playing a chemical plant environmental protection (CPEP) game can force the chemical plants to be more compliant with environmental protection authorities and reduce the potential risks of hazardous gas dispersion accidents. However, results of the current literature strictly rely on several perfect assumptions which rarely hold in real-world domains, especially when dealing with human adversaries. To address bounded rationality and limited observability in human cognition, the CPEP game is extended to generate robust schedules of inspection resources for inspection agencies. The present paper is innovative on the following contributions: (i) The CPEP model is extended by taking observation frequency and observation cost of adversaries into account, and thus better reflects the industrial reality; (ii) Uncertainties such as attackers with bounded rationality, attackers with limited observation and incomplete information (i.e., the attacker's parameters) are integrated into the extended CPEP model; (iii) Learning curve theory is employed to determine the attacker's observability in the game solver. Results in the case study imply that this work improves the decision-making process for environmental protection authorities in practical fields by bringing more rewards to the inspection agencies and by acquiring more compliance from chemical plants.

An Extended Chemical Plant Environmental Protection Game on Addressing Uncertainties of Human Adversaries

PubMed Central

Wang, Rongxiao; Chen, Feiran; Wang, Yiping; Qiu, Xiaogang

2018-01-01

Chemical production activities in industrial districts pose great threats to the surrounding atmospheric environment and human health. Therefore, developing appropriate and intelligent pollution controlling strategies for the management team to monitor chemical production processes is significantly essential in a chemical industrial district. The literature shows that playing a chemical plant environmental protection (CPEP) game can force the chemical plants to be more compliant with environmental protection authorities and reduce the potential risks of hazardous gas dispersion accidents. However, results of the current literature strictly rely on several perfect assumptions which rarely hold in real-world domains, especially when dealing with human adversaries. To address bounded rationality and limited observability in human cognition, the CPEP game is extended to generate robust schedules of inspection resources for inspection agencies. The present paper is innovative on the following contributions: (i) The CPEP model is extended by taking observation frequency and observation cost of adversaries into account, and thus better reflects the industrial reality; (ii) Uncertainties such as attackers with bounded rationality, attackers with limited observation and incomplete information (i.e., the attacker’s parameters) are integrated into the extended CPEP model; (iii) Learning curve theory is employed to determine the attacker’s observability in the game solver. Results in the case study imply that this work improves the decision-making process for environmental protection authorities in practical fields by bringing more rewards to the inspection agencies and by acquiring more compliance from chemical plants. PMID:29584679

'Meatball searching' - The adversarial approach to online information retrieval

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jack, R. F.

1985-01-01

It is proposed that the different styles of online searching can be described as either formal (highly precise) or informal with the needs of the client dictating which is most applicable at a particular moment. The background and personality of the searcher also come into play. Particular attention is focused on meatball searching which is a form of online searching characterized by deliberate vagueness. It requires generally comprehensive searches, often on unusual topics and with tight deadlines. It is most likely to occur in search centers serving many different disciplines and levels of client information sophistication. Various information needs are outlined as well as the laws of meatball searching and the adversarial approach. Traits and characteristics important to sucessful searching include: (1) concept analysis, (2) flexibility of thinking, (3) ability to think in synonyms and (4) anticipation of variant word forms and spellings.

34 CFR 21.10 - Adversary adjudications covered by the Act.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Adversary adjudications covered by the Act. 21.10 Section 21.10 Education Office of the Secretary, Department of Education EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE Which... Assistance for Local Educational Agencies in Areas Affected by Federal Activity) (20 U.S.C. 240(g)). (2...

Revitalizing Adversary Evaluation: Deep Dark Deficits or Muddled Mistaken Musings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thurston, Paul

1978-01-01

The adversary evaluation model consists of utilizing the judicial process as a metaphor for educational evaluation. In this article, previous criticism of the model is addressed and its fundamental problems are detailed. It is speculated that the model could be improved by borrowing ideas from other legal forms of inquiry. (Author/GC)

Cooperative Control of Distributed Autonomous Vehicles in Adversarial Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-14

COOPERATIVE CONTROL OF DISTRIBUTED AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES IN ADVERSARIAL ENVIRONMENTS Grant #F49620–01–1–0361 Final Report Jeff Shamma Department of...CONTRACT NUMBER F49620-01-1-0361 5b. GRANT NUMBER 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE COOPERATIVE CONTROL OF DISTRIBUTED AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES IN...single dominant language or a distribution of languages. A relation to multivehicle systems is understanding how highly autonomous vehicles on extended

Constructing Learning: Adversarial and Collaborative Working in the British Construction Industry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bishop, Dan; Felstead, Alan; Fuller, Alison; Jewson, Nick; Unwin, Lorna; Kakavelakis, Konstantinos

2009-01-01

This paper examines two competing systems of work organisation in the British construction industry and their consequences for learning. Under the traditional "adversarial" system, conflict, hostility and litigation between contractors are commonplace. Such a climate actively militates against collective learning and knowledge sharing between…

GalaxyGAN: Generative Adversarial Networks for recovery of galaxy features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schawinski, Kevin; Zhang, Ce; Zhang, Hantian; Fowler, Lucas; Krishnan Santhanam, Gokula

2017-02-01

GalaxyGAN uses Generative Adversarial Networks to reliably recover features in images of galaxies. The package uses machine learning to train on higher quality data and learns to recover detailed features such as galaxy morphology by effectively building priors. This method opens up the possibility of recovering more information from existing and future imaging data.

Procedural Justice in Family Court: Does the Adversary Model Make Sense?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Melton, Gary B.; Lind, E. Allan

1982-01-01

Reviews research and theory on procedural justice concerning family disputes, and discusses existing proposals for reform of family court procedures. Holds that adversary proceedings in custody disputes may be more beneficial to older children and disputing parents than nonadversary procedures. Identifies areas for needed research in procedural…

Methodology for characterizing potential adversaries of Nuclear Material Safeguards Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirkwood, C.W.; Pollock, S.M.

1978-11-01

The results are described of a study by Woodward--Clyde Consultants to assist the University of California Lawrence Livermore Laboratory in the development of methods to analyze and evaluate Nuclear Material Safeguards (NMS) Systems. The study concentrated on developing a methodology to assist experts in describing, in quantitative form, their judgments about the characteristics of potential adversaries of NMS Systems.

Cooperation and punishment in an adversarial game: How defectors pave the way to a peaceful society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Short, M. B.; Brantingham, P. J.; D'Orsogna, M. R.

2010-12-01

The evolution of human cooperation has been the subject of much research, especially within the framework of evolutionary public goods games, where several mechanisms have been proposed to account for persistent cooperation. Yet, in addressing this issue, little attention has been given to games of a more adversarial nature, in which defecting players, rather than simply free riding, actively seek to harm others. Here, we develop an adversarial evolutionary game using the specific example of criminal activity, recasting the familiar public goods strategies of punishers, cooperators, and defectors in this light. We then introduce a strategy—the informant—with no clear analog in public goods games and show that individuals employing this strategy are a key to the emergence of systems where cooperation dominates. We also find that a defection-dominated regime may be transitioned to one that is cooperation-dominated by converting an optimal number of players into informants. We discuss these findings, the role of informants, and possible intervention strategies in extreme adversarial societies, such as those marred by wars and insurgencies.

Toward Adversarial Online Learning and the Science of Deceptive Machines

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-14

noise . Adver- saries can take advantage of this inherent blind spot to avoid detection (mimicry). Adversarial label noise is the intentional switching...of classification labels leading to de- terministic noise , error that the model cannot capture due to its generalization bias. An experiment in user...potentially infinite and with imperfect information. We will combine Monte-Carlo tree search ( MCTS ) with rein- forcement learning because the manipulation

Managing Quality, Identity and Adversaries in Public Discourse with Machine Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brennan, Michael

2012-01-01

Automation can mitigate issues when scaling and managing quality and identity in public discourse on the web. Discourse needs to be curated and filtered. Anonymous speech has to be supported while handling adversaries. Reliance on human curators or analysts does not scale and content can be missed. These scaling and management issues include the…

Translation-aware semantic segmentation via conditional least-square generative adversarial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Mi; Hu, Xiangyun; Zhao, Like; Pang, Shiyan; Gong, Jinqi; Luo, Min

2017-10-01

Semantic segmentation has recently made rapid progress in the field of remote sensing and computer vision. However, many leading approaches cannot simultaneously translate label maps to possible source images with a limited number of training images. The core issue is insufficient adversarial information to interpret the inverse process and proper objective loss function to overcome the vanishing gradient problem. We propose the use of conditional least squares generative adversarial networks (CLS-GAN) to delineate visual objects and solve these problems. We trained the CLS-GAN network for semantic segmentation to discriminate dense prediction information either from training images or generative networks. We show that the optimal objective function of CLS-GAN is a special class of f-divergence and yields a generator that lies on the decision boundary of discriminator that reduces possible vanished gradient. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed architecture at translating images from label maps in the learning process. Experiments on a limited number of high resolution images, including close-range and remote sensing datasets, indicate that the proposed method leads to the improved semantic segmentation accuracy and can simultaneously generate high quality images from label maps.

Generative adversarial network based telecom fraud detection at the receiving bank.

PubMed

Zheng, Yu-Jun; Zhou, Xiao-Han; Sheng, Wei-Guo; Xue, Yu; Chen, Sheng-Yong

2018-06-01

Recently telecom fraud has become a serious problem especially in developing countries such as China. At present, it can be very difficult to coordinate different agencies to prevent fraud completely. In this paper we study how to detect large transfers that are sent from victims deceived by fraudsters at the receiving bank. We propose a new generative adversarial network (GAN) based model to calculate for each large transfer a probability that it is fraudulent, such that the bank can take appropriate measures to prevent potential fraudsters to take the money if the probability exceeds a threshold. The inference model uses a deep denoising autoencoder to effectively learn the complex probabilistic relationship among the input features, and employs adversarial training that establishes a minimax game between a discriminator and a generator to accurately discriminate between positive samples and negative samples in the data distribution. We show that the model outperforms a set of well-known classification methods in experiments, and its applications in two commercial banks have reduced losses of about 10 million RMB in twelve weeks and significantly improved their business reputation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adversarial Risk Analysis for Dynamic Network Routing

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-20

Attacker’s strategy space A . Then the Defender finds IEP [ã ′] = ∑I i=1 piai, where ã is Attacker’s choice of IED sites, which is unknown and thus...r∈D IEP [ã ′]Y r, where Y is the (actual) payoff matrix for the Defender. In order to construct P , we describe the mirroring argument. The...Attacker will try to find argmax P∈P IEP [ã ′]X̃(ω)IEQ[·|ω][r̃], (3) which elicits one mixed-strategy. Next, allowing ω to have non-unitary support

Identifying quantum phase transitions with adversarial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huembeli, Patrick; Dauphin, Alexandre; Wittek, Peter

2018-04-01

The identification of phases of matter is a challenging task, especially in quantum mechanics, where the complexity of the ground state appears to grow exponentially with the size of the system. Traditionally, physicists have to identify the relevant order parameters for the classification of the different phases. We here follow a radically different approach: we address this problem with a state-of-the-art deep learning technique, adversarial domain adaptation. We derive the phase diagram of the whole parameter space starting from a fixed and known subspace using unsupervised learning. This method has the advantage that the input of the algorithm can be directly the ground state without any ad hoc feature engineering. Furthermore, the dimension of the parameter space is unrestricted. More specifically, the input data set contains both labeled and unlabeled data instances. The first kind is a system that admits an accurate analytical or numerical solution, and one can recover its phase diagram. The second type is the physical system with an unknown phase diagram. Adversarial domain adaptation uses both types of data to create invariant feature extracting layers in a deep learning architecture. Once these layers are trained, we can attach an unsupervised learner to the network to find phase transitions. We show the success of this technique by applying it on several paradigmatic models: the Ising model with different temperatures, the Bose-Hubbard model, and the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model with disorder. The method finds unknown transitions successfully and predicts transition points in close agreement with standard methods. This study opens the door to the classification of physical systems where the phase boundaries are complex such as the many-body localization problem or the Bose glass phase.

Static-99R reporting practices in sexually violent predator cases: Does norm selection reflect adversarial allegiance?

PubMed

Chevalier, Caroline S; Boccaccini, Marcus T; Murrie, Daniel C; Varela, Jorge G

2015-06-01

We surveyed experts (N = 109) who conduct sexually violent predator (SVP) evaluations to obtain information about their Static-99R score reporting and interpretation practices. Although most evaluators reported providing at least 1 normative sample recidivism rate estimate, there were few other areas of consensus. Instead, reporting practices differed depending on the side for which evaluators typically performed evaluations. Defense evaluators were more likely to endorse reporting practices that convey the lowest possible level of risk (e.g., routine sample recidivism rates, 5-year recidivism rates) and the highest level of uncertainty (e.g., confidence intervals, classification accuracy), whereas prosecution evaluators were more likely to endorse practices suggesting the highest possible level of risk (e.g., high risk/need sample recidivism rates, 10-year recidivism rates). Reporting practices from state-agency evaluators tended to be more consistent with those of prosecution evaluators than defense evaluators, although state-agency evaluators were more likely than other evaluators to report that it was at least somewhat difficult to choose an appropriate normative comparison group. Overall, findings provide evidence for adversarial allegiance in Static-99R score reporting and interpretation practices. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Saliency detection by conditional generative adversarial network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Xiaoxu; Yu, Hui

2018-04-01

Detecting salient objects in images has been a fundamental problem in computer vision. In recent years, deep learning has shown its impressive performance in dealing with many kinds of vision tasks. In this paper, we propose a new method to detect salient objects by using Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (GAN). This type of network not only learns the mapping from RGB images to salient regions, but also learns a loss function for training the mapping. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that Conditional GAN has been used in salient object detection. We evaluate our saliency detection method on 2 large publicly available datasets with pixel accurate annotations. The experimental results have shown the significant and consistent improvements over the state-of-the-art method on a challenging dataset, and the testing speed is much faster.

The adversarial court system and the expert medical witness: 'The truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth?'.

PubMed

Ryan, Matthew

2003-06-01

This discussion aims to provide the occasional medical expert witness with background knowledge of the adversarial court system and the role of the medical expert witness within it. The parallel evolution of the adversarial and inquisitorial legal systems has been more out of tradition rather than any systematic review of the effectiveness of one system or the other. Both legal systems have their merits and limitations. Witnesses within the adversarial system are required to present evidence in a structured and highly stylized format consisting of 'evidence in chief' followed by 'cross-examination'. This format is an attempt to exclude unreliable evidence. The medical witness is an 'expert' by means of specialized knowledge not possessed by the general public. This distinction allows the expert medical witness to offer his or her opinion as evidence. There remain several limitations to the expert's evidence and these relate to common knowledge, field of expertise and the 'ultimate issue'. The current practice of selection of expert medical witnesses is seriously flawed with several pressures operating to maximise bias and inaccurate testimony. Doctors should not only anticipate change in this area they should lead reform in this area.

SegAN: Adversarial Network with Multi-scale L1 Loss for Medical Image Segmentation.

PubMed

Xue, Yuan; Xu, Tao; Zhang, Han; Long, L Rodney; Huang, Xiaolei

2018-05-03

Inspired by classic Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), we propose a novel end-to-end adversarial neural network, called SegAN, for the task of medical image segmentation. Since image segmentation requires dense, pixel-level labeling, the single scalar real/fake output of a classic GAN's discriminator may be ineffective in producing stable and sufficient gradient feedback to the networks. Instead, we use a fully convolutional neural network as the segmentor to generate segmentation label maps, and propose a novel adversarial critic network with a multi-scale L 1 loss function to force the critic and segmentor to learn both global and local features that capture long- and short-range spatial relationships between pixels. In our SegAN framework, the segmentor and critic networks are trained in an alternating fashion in a min-max game: The critic is trained by maximizing a multi-scale loss function, while the segmentor is trained with only gradients passed along by the critic, with the aim to minimize the multi-scale loss function. We show that such a SegAN framework is more effective and stable for the segmentation task, and it leads to better performance than the state-of-the-art U-net segmentation method. We tested our SegAN method using datasets from the MICCAI BRATS brain tumor segmentation challenge. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed SegAN with multi-scale loss: on BRATS 2013 SegAN gives performance comparable to the state-of-the-art for whole tumor and tumor core segmentation while achieves better precision and sensitivity for Gd-enhance tumor core segmentation; on BRATS 2015 SegAN achieves better performance than the state-of-the-art in both dice score and precision.

VIGAN: Missing View Imputation with Generative Adversarial Networks.

PubMed

Shang, Chao; Palmer, Aaron; Sun, Jiangwen; Chen, Ko-Shin; Lu, Jin; Bi, Jinbo

2017-01-01

In an era when big data are becoming the norm, there is less concern with the quantity but more with the quality and completeness of the data. In many disciplines, data are collected from heterogeneous sources, resulting in multi-view or multi-modal datasets. The missing data problem has been challenging to address in multi-view data analysis. Especially, when certain samples miss an entire view of data, it creates the missing view problem. Classic multiple imputations or matrix completion methods are hardly effective here when no information can be based on in the specific view to impute data for such samples. The commonly-used simple method of removing samples with a missing view can dramatically reduce sample size, thus diminishing the statistical power of a subsequent analysis. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for view imputation via generative adversarial networks (GANs), which we name by VIGAN. This approach first treats each view as a separate domain and identifies domain-to-domain mappings via a GAN using randomly-sampled data from each view, and then employs a multi-modal denoising autoencoder (DAE) to reconstruct the missing view from the GAN outputs based on paired data across the views. Then, by optimizing the GAN and DAE jointly, our model enables the knowledge integration for domain mappings and view correspondences to effectively recover the missing view. Empirical results on benchmark datasets validate the VIGAN approach by comparing against the state of the art. The evaluation of VIGAN in a genetic study of substance use disorders further proves the effectiveness and usability of this approach in life science.

Reconstruction of three-dimensional porous media using generative adversarial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosser, Lukas; Dubrule, Olivier; Blunt, Martin J.

2017-10-01

To evaluate the variability of multiphase flow properties of porous media at the pore scale, it is necessary to acquire a number of representative samples of the void-solid structure. While modern x-ray computer tomography has made it possible to extract three-dimensional images of the pore space, assessment of the variability in the inherent material properties is often experimentally not feasible. We present a method to reconstruct the solid-void structure of porous media by applying a generative neural network that allows an implicit description of the probability distribution represented by three-dimensional image data sets. We show, by using an adversarial learning approach for neural networks, that this method of unsupervised learning is able to generate representative samples of porous media that honor their statistics. We successfully compare measures of pore morphology, such as the Euler characteristic, two-point statistics, and directional single-phase permeability of synthetic realizations with the calculated properties of a bead pack, Berea sandstone, and Ketton limestone. Results show that generative adversarial networks can be used to reconstruct high-resolution three-dimensional images of porous media at different scales that are representative of the morphology of the images used to train the neural network. The fully convolutional nature of the trained neural network allows the generation of large samples while maintaining computational efficiency. Compared to classical stochastic methods of image reconstruction, the implicit representation of the learned data distribution can be stored and reused to generate multiple realizations of the pore structure very rapidly.

The Effect of Adversary Unmanned Aerial Systems on the US Concept of Air Superiority

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-04

impact on the US concept of air superiority. Politically, psychologically , and operationally, air superiority is important. UAS are capable of attack...challenge to the US concept of air superiority. Adversary drones have the potential to be a sporadic but deadly and psychologically powerful weapon that...toll they took in lives and equipment, kamikaze attacks also had a psychological impact. Dr. Alvin D. Coox, a professor of history and Asian studies

The cornucopia of meaningful leads: Applying deep adversarial autoencoders for new molecule development in oncology

PubMed Central

Kadurin, Artur; Aliper, Alexander; Kazennov, Andrey; Mamoshina, Polina; Vanhaelen, Quentin; Khrabrov, Kuzma; Zhavoronkov, Alex

2017-01-01

Recent advances in deep learning and specifically in generative adversarial networks have demonstrated surprising results in generating new images and videos upon request even using natural language as input. In this paper we present the first application of generative adversarial autoencoders (AAE) for generating novel molecular fingerprints with a defined set of parameters. We developed a 7-layer AAE architecture with the latent middle layer serving as a discriminator. As an input and output the AAE uses a vector of binary fingerprints and concentration of the molecule. In the latent layer we also introduced a neuron responsible for growth inhibition percentage, which when negative indicates the reduction in the number of tumor cells after the treatment. To train the AAE we used the NCI-60 cell line assay data for 6252 compounds profiled on MCF-7 cell line. The output of the AAE was used to screen 72 million compounds in PubChem and select candidate molecules with potential anti-cancer properties. This approach is a proof of concept of an artificially-intelligent drug discovery engine, where AAEs are used to generate new molecular fingerprints with the desired molecular properties. PMID:28029644

Fine-Tuning Neural Patient Question Retrieval Model with Generative Adversarial Networks.

PubMed

Tang, Guoyu; Ni, Yuan; Wang, Keqiang; Yong, Qin

2018-01-01

The online patient question and answering (Q&A) system attracts an increasing amount of users in China. Patient will post their questions and wait for doctors' response. To avoid the lag time involved with the waiting and to reduce the workload on the doctors, a better method is to automatically retrieve the semantically equivalent question from the archive. We present a Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) based approach to automatically retrieve patient question. We apply supervised deep learning based approaches to determine the similarity between patient questions. Then a GAN framework is used to fine-tune the pre-trained deep learning models. The experiment results show that fine-tuning by GAN can improve the performance.

Risk taking in adversarial situations: Civilization differences in chess experts.

PubMed

Chassy, Philippe; Gobet, Fernand

2015-08-01

The projections of experts in politics predict that a new world order will emerge within two decades. Being multipolar, this world will inevitably lead to frictions where civilizations and states will have to decide whether to risk conflict. Very often these decisions are informed if not taken by experts. To estimate risk-taking across civilizations, we examined strategies used in 667,599 chess games played over eleven years by chess experts from 11 different civilizations. We show that some civilizations are more inclined to settle for peace. Similarly, we show that once engaged in the battle, the level of risk taking varies significantly across civilizations, the boldest civilization using the riskiest strategy about 35% more than the most conservative civilization. We discuss which psychological factors might underpin these civilizational differences. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Creating Turbulent Flow Realizations with Generative Adversarial Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Ryan; Graf, Peter; Chertkov, Michael

2017-11-01

Generating valid inflow conditions is a crucial, yet computationally expensive, step in unsteady turbulent flow simulations. We demonstrate a new technique for rapid generation of turbulent inflow realizations that leverages recent advances in machine learning for image generation using a deep convolutional generative adversarial network (DCGAN). The DCGAN is an unsupervised machine learning technique consisting of two competing neural networks that are trained against each other using backpropagation. One network, the generator, tries to produce samples from the true distribution of states, while the discriminator tries to distinguish between true and synthetic samples. We present results from a fully-trained DCGAN that is able to rapidly draw random samples from the full distribution of possible inflow states without needing to solve the Navier-Stokes equations, eliminating the costly process of spinning up inflow turbulence. This suggests a new paradigm in physics informed machine learning where the turbulence physics can be encoded in either the discriminator or generator. Finally, we also propose additional applications such as feature identification and subgrid scale modeling.

DAGAN: Deep De-Aliasing Generative Adversarial Networks for Fast Compressed Sensing MRI Reconstruction.

PubMed

Yang, Guang; Yu, Simiao; Dong, Hao; Slabaugh, Greg; Dragotti, Pier Luigi; Ye, Xujiong; Liu, Fangde; Arridge, Simon; Keegan, Jennifer; Guo, Yike; Firmin, David; Keegan, Jennifer; Slabaugh, Greg; Arridge, Simon; Ye, Xujiong; Guo, Yike; Yu, Simiao; Liu, Fangde; Firmin, David; Dragotti, Pier Luigi; Yang, Guang; Dong, Hao

2018-06-01

Compressed sensing magnetic resonance imaging (CS-MRI) enables fast acquisition, which is highly desirable for numerous clinical applications. This can not only reduce the scanning cost and ease patient burden, but also potentially reduce motion artefacts and the effect of contrast washout, thus yielding better image quality. Different from parallel imaging-based fast MRI, which utilizes multiple coils to simultaneously receive MR signals, CS-MRI breaks the Nyquist-Shannon sampling barrier to reconstruct MRI images with much less required raw data. This paper provides a deep learning-based strategy for reconstruction of CS-MRI, and bridges a substantial gap between conventional non-learning methods working only on data from a single image, and prior knowledge from large training data sets. In particular, a novel conditional Generative Adversarial Networks-based model (DAGAN)-based model is proposed to reconstruct CS-MRI. In our DAGAN architecture, we have designed a refinement learning method to stabilize our U-Net based generator, which provides an end-to-end network to reduce aliasing artefacts. To better preserve texture and edges in the reconstruction, we have coupled the adversarial loss with an innovative content loss. In addition, we incorporate frequency-domain information to enforce similarity in both the image and frequency domains. We have performed comprehensive comparison studies with both conventional CS-MRI reconstruction methods and newly investigated deep learning approaches. Compared with these methods, our DAGAN method provides superior reconstruction with preserved perceptual image details. Furthermore, each image is reconstructed in about 5 ms, which is suitable for real-time processing.

Interrater reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores provided in Canadian criminal proceedings.

PubMed

Edens, John F; Penson, Brittany N; Ruchensky, Jared R; Cox, Jennifer; Smith, Shannon Toney

2016-12-01

Published research suggests that most violence risk assessment tools have relatively high levels of interrater reliability, but recent evidence of inconsistent scores among forensic examiners in adversarial settings raises concerns about the "field reliability" of such measures. This study specifically examined the reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) scores in Canadian criminal cases identified in the legal database, LexisNexis. Over 250 reported cases were located that made mention of the VRAG, with 42 of these cases containing 2 or more scores that could be submitted to interrater reliability analyses. Overall, scores were skewed toward higher risk categories. The intraclass correlation (ICCA1) was .66, with pairs of forensic examiners placing defendants into the same VRAG risk "bin" in 68% of the cases. For categorical risk statements (i.e., low, moderate, high), examiners provided converging assessment results in most instances (86%). In terms of potential predictors of rater disagreement, there was no evidence for adversarial allegiance in our sample. Rater disagreement in the scoring of 1 VRAG item (Psychopathy Checklist-Revised; Hare, 2003), however, strongly predicted rater disagreement in the scoring of the VRAG (r = .58). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Learning Physics-based Models in Hydrology under the Framework of Generative Adversarial Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpatne, A.; Kumar, V.

2017-12-01

Generative adversarial networks (GANs), that have been highly successful in a number of applications involving large volumes of labeled and unlabeled data such as computer vision, offer huge potential for modeling the dynamics of physical processes that have been traditionally studied using simulations of physics-based models. While conventional physics-based models use labeled samples of input/output variables for model calibration (estimating the right parametric forms of relationships between variables) or data assimilation (identifying the most likely sequence of system states in dynamical systems), there is a greater opportunity to explore the full power of machine learning (ML) methods (e.g, GANs) for studying physical processes currently suffering from large knowledge gaps, e.g. ground-water flow. However, success in this endeavor requires a principled way of combining the strengths of ML methods with physics-based numerical models that are founded on a wealth of scientific knowledge. This is especially important in scientific domains like hydrology where the number of data samples is small (relative to Internet-scale applications such as image recognition where machine learning methods has found great success), and the physical relationships are complex (high-dimensional) and non-stationary. We will present a series of methods for guiding the learning of GANs using physics-based models, e.g., by using the outputs of physics-based models as input data to the generator-learner framework, and by using physics-based models as generators trained using validation data in the adversarial learning framework. These methods are being developed under the broad paradigm of theory-guided data science that we are developing to integrate scientific knowledge with data science methods for accelerating scientific discovery.

Institutionalizing dissent: a proposal for an adversarial system of pharmaceutical research.

PubMed

Biddle, Justin

2013-12-01

There are serious problems with the way in which pharmaceutical research is currently practiced, many of which can be traced to the influence of commercial interests on research. One of the most significant is inadequate dissent, or organized skepticism. In order to ameliorate this problem, I develop a proposal that I call the "Adversarial Proceedings for the Evaluation of Pharmaceuticals," to be instituted within a regulatory agency such as the Food and Drug Administration for the evaluation of controversial new drugs and controversial drugs already in the market. This proposal is an organizational one based upon the "science court" proposal by Arthur Kantrowitz in the 1960s and 1970s. The primary benefit of this system is its ability to institutionalize dissent, thereby ensuring that one set of interests does not dominate all others.

Adversarial allegiance: The devil is in the evidence details, not just on the witness stand.

PubMed

McAuliff, Bradley D; Arter, Jeana L

2016-10-01

This study examined the potential influence of adversarial allegiance on expert testimony in a simulated child sexual abuse case. A national sample of 100 witness suggestibility experts reviewed a police interview of an alleged 5-year-old female victim. Retaining party (prosecution, defense) and interview suggestibility (low, high) varied across experts. Experts were very willing to testify, but more so for the prosecution than the defense when interview suggestibility was low and vice versa when interview suggestibility was high. Experts' anticipated testimony focused more on prodefense aspects of the police interview and child's memory overall (negativity bias), but favored retaining party only when interview suggestibility was low. Prosecution-retained experts shifted their focus from prodefense aspects of the case in the high suggestibility interview to proprosecution aspects in the low suggestibility interview; defense experts did not. Blind raters' perceptions of expert focus mirrored those findings. Despite an initial bias toward retaining party, experts' evaluations of child victim accuracy and police interview quality were lower in the high versus low interview suggestibility condition only. Our data suggest that adversarial allegiance exists, that it can (but not always) influence how experts process evidence, and that it may be more likely in cases involving evidence that is not blatantly flawed. Defense experts may evaluate this type of evidence more negatively than prosecution experts because of negativity bias and positive testing strategies associated with confirmation bias. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Adversarial Allegiance: The Devil is in the Evidence Details, Not Just on the Witness Stand

PubMed Central

McAuliff, Bradley D.; Arter, Jeana L.

2016-01-01

This study examined the potential influence of adversarial allegiance on expert testimony in a simulated child sexual abuse case. A national sample of 100 witness suggestibility experts reviewed a police interview of an alleged 5 year-old female victim. Retaining party (prosecution, defense) and interview suggestibility (low, high) varied across experts. Experts were very willing to testify, but more so for the prosecution than the defense when interview suggestibility was low and vice versa when interview suggestibility was high. Experts' anticipated testimony focused more on pro-defense aspects of the police interview and child's memory overall (negativity bias), but favored retaining party only when interview suggestibility was low. Unlike prosecution-retained experts who shifted their focus from pro-defense aspects of the case in the high suggestibility interview to pro-prosecution aspects in the low suggestibility interview, defense experts did not. Blind raters' perceptions of expert focus mirrored those findings. Despite an initial bias toward retaining party, experts' evaluations of child victim accuracy and interview quality were lower in the high versus low interview suggestibility condition only. Our data suggest that adversarial allegiance exists, that it can (but not always) influence how experts process evidence, and that it may be more likely in cases involving evidence that is not blatantly flawed. Defense experts may evaluate this type of evidence more negatively than prosecution experts due to negativity bias and positive testing strategies associated with confirmation bias. PMID:27243362

Generative adversarial networks for brain lesion detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alex, Varghese; Safwan, K. P. Mohammed; Chennamsetty, Sai Saketh; Krishnamurthi, Ganapathy

2017-02-01

Manual segmentation of brain lesions from Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) is cumbersome and introduces errors due to inter-rater variability. This paper introduces a semi-supervised technique for detection of brain lesion from MRI using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). GANs comprises of a Generator network and a Discriminator network which are trained simultaneously with the objective of one bettering the other. The networks were trained using non lesion patches (n=13,000) from 4 different MR sequences. The network was trained on BraTS dataset and patches were extracted from regions excluding tumor region. The Generator network generates data by modeling the underlying probability distribution of the training data, (PData). The Discriminator learns the posterior probability P (Label Data) by classifying training data and generated data as "Real" or "Fake" respectively. The Generator upon learning the joint distribution, produces images/patches such that the performance of the Discriminator on them are random, i.e. P (Label Data = GeneratedData) = 0.5. During testing, the Discriminator assigns posterior probability values close to 0.5 for patches from non lesion regions, while patches centered on lesion arise from a different distribution (PLesion) and hence are assigned lower posterior probability value by the Discriminator. On the test set (n=14), the proposed technique achieves whole tumor dice score of 0.69, sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 59%. Additionally the generator network was capable of generating non lesion patches from various MR sequences.

Modeling urbanization patterns at a global scale with generative adversarial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, A. T.; Strano, E.; Gonzalez, M.

2017-12-01

Current demographic projections show that, in the next 30 years, global population growth will mostly take place in developing countries. Coupled with a decrease in density, such population growth could potentially double the land occupied by settlements by 2050. The lack of reliable and globally consistent socio-demographic data, coupled with the limited predictive performance underlying traditional urban spatial explicit models, call for developing better predictive methods, calibrated using a globally-consistent dataset. Thus, richer models of the spatial interplay between the urban built-up land, population distribution and energy use are central to the discussion around the expansion and development of cities, and their impact on the environment in the context of a changing climate. In this talk we discuss methods for, and present an analysis of, urban form, defined as the spatial distribution of macroeconomic quantities that characterize a city, using modern machine learning methods and best-available remote-sensing data for the world's largest 25,000 cities. We first show that these cities may be described by a small set of patterns in radial building density, nighttime luminosity, and population density, which highlight, to first order, differences in development and land use across the world. We observe significant, spatially-dependent variance around these typical patterns, which would be difficult to model using traditional statistical methods. We take a first step in addressing this challenge by developing CityGAN, a conditional generative adversarial network model for simulating realistic urban forms. To guide learning and measure the quality of the simulated synthetic cities, we develop a specialized loss function for GAN optimization that incorporates standard spatial statistics used by urban analysis experts. Our framework is a stark departure from both the standard physics-based approaches in the literature (that view urban forms as fractals with a

FOOD RISK ANALYSIS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...

Security risk assessment: applying the concepts of fuzzy logic.

PubMed

Bajpai, Shailendra; Sachdeva, Anish; Gupta, J P

2010-01-15

Chemical process industries (CPI) handling hazardous chemicals in bulk can be attractive targets for deliberate adversarial actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. It is therefore imperative to have comprehensive security risk management programme including effective security risk assessment techniques. In an earlier work, it has been shown that security risk assessment can be done by conducting threat and vulnerability analysis or by developing Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT). HAZOP type vulnerability assessment sheets can be developed that are scenario based. In SRFT model, important security risk bearing factors such as location, ownership, visibility, inventory, etc., have been used. In this paper, the earlier developed SRFT model has been modified using the concepts of fuzzy logic. In the modified SRFT model, two linguistic fuzzy scales (three-point and four-point) are devised based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Human subjectivity of different experts associated with previous SRFT model is tackled by mapping their scores to the newly devised fuzzy scale. Finally, the fuzzy score thus obtained is defuzzyfied to get the results. A test case of a refinery is used to explain the method and compared with the earlier work.

Mothers' power assertion; children's negative, adversarial orientation; and future behavior problems in low-income families: early maternal responsiveness as a moderator of the developmental cascade.

PubMed

Kim, Sanghag; Kochanska, Grazyna

2015-02-01

Parental power assertion, a key dimension of family environment, generally sets in motion detrimental developmental cascades; however, evidence suggests that other qualities of parenting, such as responsiveness, can significantly moderate those processes. Mechanisms that account for such moderating effects are not fully understood. We propose a conceptual model of processes linking parental power assertion, parental responsiveness, children's negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the parent, and behavior problems. We test that model in a short-term longitudinal design involving 186 low-income, ethnically diverse mothers and their toddlers. When children were 30 months, the dyads were observed in multiple, lengthy, naturalistic laboratory interactions to assess behaviorally mothers' responsiveness and their power-assertive control style. At 33 months, we observed behavioral indicators of children's negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the mothers in several naturalistic and standardized paradigms. At 40 months, mothers rated children's behavior problems. The proposed moderated mediation sequence, tested using a new approach, PROCESS (Hayes, 2013), was supported. The indirect effect from maternal power assertion to children's negative, adversarial orientation to future behavior problems was present when mothers' responsiveness was either low or average but absent when mothers were highly responsive. This study elucidates a potential process that may link parental power assertion with behavior problems and highlights how positive aspects of parenting can moderate this process and defuse maladaptive developmental cascades. It also suggests possible targets for parenting intervention and prevention efforts. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Game theoretic analysis of physical protection system design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Canion, B.; Schneider, E.; Bickel, E.

The physical protection system (PPS) of a fictional small modular reactor (SMR) facility have been modeled as a platform for a game theoretic approach to security decision analysis. To demonstrate the game theoretic approach, a rational adversary with complete knowledge of the facility has been modeled attempting a sabotage attack. The adversary adjusts his decisions in response to investments made by the defender to enhance the security measures. This can lead to a conservative physical protection system design. Since defender upgrades were limited by a budget, cost benefit analysis may be conducted upon security upgrades. One approach to cost benefitmore » analysis is the efficient frontier, which depicts the reduction in expected consequence per incremental increase in the security budget.« less

Wide-threat detection: recognition of adversarial missions and activity patterns in Empire Challenge 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levchuk, Georgiy; Shabarekh, Charlotte; Furjanic, Caitlin

2011-06-01

In this paper, we present results of adversarial activity recognition using data collected in the Empire Challenge (EC 09) exercise. The EC09 experiment provided an opportunity to evaluate our probabilistic spatiotemporal mission recognition algorithms using the data from live air-born and ground sensors. Using ambiguous and noisy data about locations of entities and motion events on the ground, the algorithms inferred the types and locations of OPFOR activities, including reconnaissance, cache runs, IED emplacements, logistics, and planning meetings. In this paper, we present detailed summary of the validation study and recognition accuracy results. Our algorithms were able to detect locations and types of over 75% of hostile activities in EC09 while producing 25% false alarms.

DETERMINING ELECTRONIC AND CYBER ATTACK RISK LEVEL FOR UNMANNED AIRCRAFT IN A CONTESTED ENVIRONMENT

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

AIR COMMAND AND STAFF COLLEGE AIR UNIVERSITY DETERMINING ELECTRONIC AND CYBER ATTACK RISK LEVEL FOR UNMANNED AIRCRAFT IN A CONTESTED ENVIRONMENT...iii ABSTRACT During operations in a contested air environment, adversary electronic warfare (EW) and cyber-attack capability will pose a high...10 Russian Federation Electronic Warfare Systems ...................................................12 Chinese Cyber Warfare Program

Mothers’ Power Assertion, Children’s Negative, Adversarial Orientation, and Future Behavior Problems in Low-Income Families: Early Maternal Responsiveness as a Moderator of the Developmental Cascade

PubMed Central

Kim, Sanghag; Kochanska, Grazyna

2014-01-01

Parental power assertion, a key dimension of family environment, generally sets in motion detrimental developmental cascades; however, evidence suggests that other qualities of parenting, such as responsiveness, can significantly moderate those processes. Mechanisms that account for such moderating effects are not fully understood. We propose a conceptual model of processes linking parental power assertion, parental responsiveness, children’s negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the parent, and behavior problems. We test that model in a short-term longitudinal design involving 186 low-income, ethnically diverse mothers and their toddlers. When children were 30 months, the dyads were observed in multiple, lengthy, naturalistic laboratory interactions to assess behaviorally mothers’ responsiveness and their power-assertive control style. At 33 months, we observed behavioral indicators of children’s negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the mothers in several naturalistic and standardized paradigms. At 40 months, mothers rated children’s behavior problems. The proposed moderated mediation sequence, tested using a new approach, PROCESS (Hayes, 2013), was supported. The indirect effect from maternal power assertion to children’s negative, adversarial orientation to future behavior problems was present when mothers’ responsiveness was either low or average but absent when mothers were highly responsive. This study elucidates a potential process that may link parental power assertion with behavior problems and highlights how positive aspects of parenting can moderate this process and defuse maladaptive developmental cascades. It also suggests possible targets for parenting intervention and prevention efforts. PMID:25401483

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

PubMed

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

Is risk analysis scientific?

PubMed

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Using Frankencerts for Automated Adversarial Testing of Certificate Validation in SSL/TLS Implementations.

PubMed

Brubaker, Chad; Jana, Suman; Ray, Baishakhi; Khurshid, Sarfraz; Shmatikov, Vitaly

2014-01-01

Modern network security rests on the Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) and Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocols. Distributed systems, mobile and desktop applications, embedded devices, and all of secure Web rely on SSL/TLS for protection against network attacks. This protection critically depends on whether SSL/TLS clients correctly validate X.509 certificates presented by servers during the SSL/TLS handshake protocol. We design, implement, and apply the first methodology for large-scale testing of certificate validation logic in SSL/TLS implementations. Our first ingredient is "frankencerts," synthetic certificates that are randomly mutated from parts of real certificates and thus include unusual combinations of extensions and constraints. Our second ingredient is differential testing: if one SSL/TLS implementation accepts a certificate while another rejects the same certificate, we use the discrepancy as an oracle for finding flaws in individual implementations. Differential testing with frankencerts uncovered 208 discrepancies between popular SSL/TLS implementations such as OpenSSL, NSS, CyaSSL, GnuTLS, PolarSSL, MatrixSSL, etc. Many of them are caused by serious security vulnerabilities. For example, any server with a valid X.509 version 1 certificate can act as a rogue certificate authority and issue fake certificates for any domain, enabling man-in-the-middle attacks against MatrixSSL and GnuTLS. Several implementations also accept certificate authorities created by unauthorized issuers, as well as certificates not intended for server authentication. We also found serious vulnerabilities in how users are warned about certificate validation errors. When presented with an expired, self-signed certificate, NSS, Safari, and Chrome (on Linux) report that the certificate has expired-a low-risk, often ignored error-but not that the connection is insecure against a man-in-the-middle attack. These results demonstrate that automated adversarial testing with frankencerts

Using Frankencerts for Automated Adversarial Testing of Certificate Validation in SSL/TLS Implementations

PubMed Central

Brubaker, Chad; Jana, Suman; Ray, Baishakhi; Khurshid, Sarfraz; Shmatikov, Vitaly

2014-01-01

Modern network security rests on the Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) and Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocols. Distributed systems, mobile and desktop applications, embedded devices, and all of secure Web rely on SSL/TLS for protection against network attacks. This protection critically depends on whether SSL/TLS clients correctly validate X.509 certificates presented by servers during the SSL/TLS handshake protocol. We design, implement, and apply the first methodology for large-scale testing of certificate validation logic in SSL/TLS implementations. Our first ingredient is “frankencerts,” synthetic certificates that are randomly mutated from parts of real certificates and thus include unusual combinations of extensions and constraints. Our second ingredient is differential testing: if one SSL/TLS implementation accepts a certificate while another rejects the same certificate, we use the discrepancy as an oracle for finding flaws in individual implementations. Differential testing with frankencerts uncovered 208 discrepancies between popular SSL/TLS implementations such as OpenSSL, NSS, CyaSSL, GnuTLS, PolarSSL, MatrixSSL, etc. Many of them are caused by serious security vulnerabilities. For example, any server with a valid X.509 version 1 certificate can act as a rogue certificate authority and issue fake certificates for any domain, enabling man-in-the-middle attacks against MatrixSSL and GnuTLS. Several implementations also accept certificate authorities created by unauthorized issuers, as well as certificates not intended for server authentication. We also found serious vulnerabilities in how users are warned about certificate validation errors. When presented with an expired, self-signed certificate, NSS, Safari, and Chrome (on Linux) report that the certificate has expired—a low-risk, often ignored error—but not that the connection is insecure against a man-in-the-middle attack. These results demonstrate that automated adversarial testing with

Program risk analysis handbook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Batson, R. G.

1987-01-01

NASA regulations specify that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from extremely simple to complex network-based simulation, are described in this handbook in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique. All program risk assessment techniques are shown to be based on elicitation and encoding of subjective probability estimates from the various area experts on a program. Techniques to encode the five most common distribution types are given. Then, a total of twelve distinct approaches to risk assessment are given. Steps involved, good and bad points, time involved, and degree of computer support needed are listed. Why risk analysis should be used by all NASA program managers is discussed. Tools available at NASA-MSFC are identified, along with commercially available software. Bibliography (150 entries) and a program risk analysis check-list are provided.

Splenomegaly Segmentation using Global Convolutional Kernels and Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks

PubMed Central

Huo, Yuankai; Xu, Zhoubing; Bao, Shunxing; Bermudez, Camilo; Plassard, Andrew J.; Liu, Jiaqi; Yao, Yuang; Assad, Albert; Abramson, Richard G.; Landman, Bennett A.

2018-01-01

Spleen volume estimation using automated image segmentation technique may be used to detect splenomegaly (abnormally enlarged spleen) on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans. In recent years, Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNN) segmentation methods have demonstrated advantages for abdominal organ segmentation. However, variations in both size and shape of the spleen on MRI images may result in large false positive and false negative labeling when deploying DCNN based methods. In this paper, we propose the Splenomegaly Segmentation Network (SSNet) to address spatial variations when segmenting extraordinarily large spleens. SSNet was designed based on the framework of image-to-image conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN). Specifically, the Global Convolutional Network (GCN) was used as the generator to reduce false negatives, while the Markovian discriminator (PatchGAN) was used to alleviate false positives. A cohort of clinically acquired 3D MRI scans (both T1 weighted and T2 weighted) from patients with splenomegaly were used to train and test the networks. The experimental results demonstrated that a mean Dice coefficient of 0.9260 and a median Dice coefficient of 0.9262 using SSNet on independently tested MRI volumes of patients with splenomegaly.

The Effects of Sacred Value Networks Within an Evolutionary, Adversarial Game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCalla, Scott G.; Short, Martin B.; Brantingham, P. Jeffrey

2013-05-01

The effects of personal relationships and shared ideologies on levels of crime and the formation of criminal coalitions are studied within the context of an adversarial, evolutionary game first introduced in Short et al. (Phys. Rev. E 82:066114, 2010). Here, we interpret these relationships as connections on a graph of N players. These connections are then used in a variety of ways to define each player's "sacred value network"—groups of individuals that are subject to special consideration or treatment by that player. We explore the effects on the dynamics of the system that these networks introduce, through various forms of protection from both victimization and punishment. Under local protection, these networks introduce a new fixed point within the game dynamics, which we find through a continuum approximation of the discrete game. Under more complicated, extended protection, we numerically observe the emergence of criminal coalitions, or "gangs". We also find that a high-crime steady state is much more frequent in the context of extended protection networks, in both the case of Erdős-Rényi and small world random graphs.

3D conditional generative adversarial networks for high-quality PET image estimation at low dose.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Yu, Biting; Wang, Lei; Zu, Chen; Lalush, David S; Lin, Weili; Wu, Xi; Zhou, Jiliu; Shen, Dinggang; Zhou, Luping

2018-07-01

Positron emission tomography (PET) is a widely used imaging modality, providing insight into both the biochemical and physiological processes of human body. Usually, a full dose radioactive tracer is required to obtain high-quality PET images for clinical needs. This inevitably raises concerns about potential health hazards. On the other hand, dose reduction may cause the increased noise in the reconstructed PET images, which impacts the image quality to a certain extent. In this paper, in order to reduce the radiation exposure while maintaining the high quality of PET images, we propose a novel method based on 3D conditional generative adversarial networks (3D c-GANs) to estimate the high-quality full-dose PET images from low-dose ones. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) include a generator network and a discriminator network which are trained simultaneously with the goal of one beating the other. Similar to GANs, in the proposed 3D c-GANs, we condition the model on an input low-dose PET image and generate a corresponding output full-dose PET image. Specifically, to render the same underlying information between the low-dose and full-dose PET images, a 3D U-net-like deep architecture which can combine hierarchical features by using skip connection is designed as the generator network to synthesize the full-dose image. In order to guarantee the synthesized PET image to be close to the real one, we take into account of the estimation error loss in addition to the discriminator feedback to train the generator network. Furthermore, a concatenated 3D c-GANs based progressive refinement scheme is also proposed to further improve the quality of estimated images. Validation was done on a real human brain dataset including both the normal subjects and the subjects diagnosed as mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Experimental results show that our proposed 3D c-GANs method outperforms the benchmark methods and achieves much better performance than the state

Adversarial reasoning and resource allocation: the LG approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stilman, Boris; Yakhnis, Vladimir; Umanskiy, Oleg; Boyd, Ron

2005-05-01

Many existing automated tools purporting to model the intelligent enemy utilize a fixed battle plan for the enemy while using flexible decisions of human players for the friendly side. According to the Naval Studies Board, "It is an open secret and a point of distress ... that too much of the substantive content of such M&S has its origin in anecdote, ..., or a narrow construction tied to stereotypical current practices of 'doctrinally correct behavior.'" Clearly, such runs lack objectivity by being heavily skewed in favor of the friendly forces. Presently, the military branches employ a variety of game-based simulators and synthetic environments, with manual (i.e., user-based) decision-making, for training and other purposes. However, without an ability to automatically generate the best strategies, tactics, and COA, the games serve mostly to display the current situation rather than form a basis for automated decision-making and effective training. We solve the problem of adversarial reasoning as a gaming problem employing Linguistic Geometry (LG), a new type of game theory demonstrating significant increase in size in gaming problems solvable in real and near-real time. It appears to be a viable approach for solving such practical problems as mission planning and battle management. Essentially, LG may be structured into two layers: game construction and game solving. Game construction includes construction of a game called an LG hypergame based on a hierarchy of Abstract Board Games (ABG). Game solving includes resource allocation for constructing an advantageous initial game state and strategy generation to reach a desirable final game state in the course of the game.

Imparting protean behavior to mobile robots accomplishing patrolling tasks in the presence of adversaries.

PubMed

Curiac, Daniel-Ioan; Volosencu, Constantin

2015-10-08

Providing unpredictable trajectories for patrol robots is essential when coping with adversaries. In order to solve this problem we developed an effective approach based on the known protean behavior of individual prey animals-random zig-zag movement. The proposed bio-inspired method modifies the normal robot's path by incorporating sudden and irregular direction changes without jeopardizing the robot's mission. Such a tactic is aimed to confuse the enemy (e.g. a sniper), offering less time to acquire and retain sight alignment and sight picture. This idea is implemented by simulating a series of fictive-temporary obstacles that will randomly appear in the robot's field of view, deceiving the obstacle avoiding mechanism to react. The new general methodology is particularized by using the Arnold's cat map to obtain the timely random appearance and disappearance of the fictive obstacles. The viability of the proposed method is confirmed through an extensive simulation case study.

Quantum Capacity under Adversarial Quantum Noise: Arbitrarily Varying Quantum Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlswede, Rudolf; Bjelaković, Igor; Boche, Holger; Nötzel, Janis

2013-01-01

We investigate entanglement transmission over an unknown channel in the presence of a third party (called the adversary), which is enabled to choose the channel from a given set of memoryless but non-stationary channels without informing the legitimate sender and receiver about the particular choice that he made. This channel model is called an arbitrarily varying quantum channel (AVQC). We derive a quantum version of Ahlswede's dichotomy for classical arbitrarily varying channels. This includes a regularized formula for the common randomness-assisted capacity for entanglement transmission of an AVQC. Quite surprisingly and in contrast to the classical analog of the problem involving the maximal and average error probability, we find that the capacity for entanglement transmission of an AVQC always equals its strong subspace transmission capacity. These results are accompanied by different notions of symmetrizability (zero-capacity conditions) as well as by conditions for an AVQC to have a capacity described by a single-letter formula. In the final part of the paper the capacity of the erasure-AVQC is computed and some light shed on the connection between AVQCs and zero-error capacities. Additionally, we show by entirely elementary and operational arguments motivated by the theory of AVQCs that the quantum, classical, and entanglement-assisted zero-error capacities of quantum channels are generically zero and are discontinuous at every positivity point.

Automated Program Analysis for Cybersecurity (APAC)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-14

AUTOMATED PROGRAM ANALYSIS FOR CYBERSECURITY (APAC) FIVE DIRECTIONS, INC JULY 2016 FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT APPROVED... CYBERSECURITY (APAC) 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA8750-14-C-0050 5b. GRANT NUMBER N/A 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 61101E 6. AUTHOR(S) William Arbaugh...AC Team Adversarial Challenge Team, responsible for creating malicious applications APAC Automated Program Analysis for Cybersecurity BAE BAE Systems

When does familiarity promote versus undermine interpersonal attraction? A proposed integrative model from erstwhile adversaries.

PubMed

Finkel, Eli J; Norton, Michael I; Reis, Harry T; Ariely, Dan; Caprariello, Peter A; Eastwick, Paul W; Frost, Jeana H; Maniaci, Michael R

2015-01-01

This article began as an adversarial collaboration between two groups of researchers with competing views on a longstanding question: Does familiarity promote or undermine interpersonal attraction? As we explored our respective positions, it became clear that the limitations of our conceptualizations of the familiarity-attraction link, as well as the limitations of prior research, were masking a set of higher order principles capable of integrating these diverse conceptualizations. This realization led us to adopt a broader perspective, which focuses on three distinct relationship stages-awareness, surface contact, and mutuality-and suggests that the influence of familiarity on attraction depends on both the nature and the stage of the relationship between perceivers and targets. This article introduces the framework that emerged from our discussions and suggests directions for research to investigate its validity. © The Author(s) 2014.

A Theoretical Analysis: Physical Unclonable Functions and The Software Protection Problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nithyanand, Rishab; Solis, John H.

2011-09-01

Physical Unclonable Functions (PUFs) or Physical One Way Functions (P-OWFs) are physical systems whose responses to input stimuli (i.e., challenges) are easy to measure (within reasonable error bounds) but hard to clone. This property of unclonability is due to the accepted hardness of replicating the multitude of uncontrollable manufacturing characteristics and makes PUFs useful in solving problems such as device authentication, software protection, licensing, and certified execution. In this paper, we focus on the effectiveness of PUFs for software protection and show that traditional non-computational (black-box) PUFs cannot solve the problem against real world adversaries in offline settings. Our contributionsmore » are the following: We provide two real world adversary models (weak and strong variants) and present definitions for security against the adversaries. We continue by proposing schemes secure against the weak adversary and show that no scheme is secure against a strong adversary without the use of trusted hardware. Finally, we present a protection scheme secure against strong adversaries based on trusted hardware.« less

Framework for Identifying Cybersecurity Risks in Manufacturing

DOE PAGES

Hutchins, Margot J.; Bhinge, Raunak; Micali, Maxwell K.; ...

2015-10-21

Increasing connectivity, use of digital computation, and off-site data storage provide potential for dramatic improvements in manufacturing productivity, quality, and cost. However, there are also risks associated with the increased volume and pervasiveness of data that are generated and potentially accessible to competitors or adversaries. Enterprises have experienced cyber attacks that exfiltrate confidential and/or proprietary data, alter information to cause an unexpected or unwanted effect, and destroy capital assets. Manufacturers need tools to incorporate these risks into their existing risk management processes. This article establishes a framework that considers the data flows within a manufacturing enterprise and throughout its supplymore » chain. The framework provides several mechanisms for identifying generic and manufacturing-specific vulnerabilities and is illustrated with details pertinent to an automotive manufacturer. Finally, in addition to providing manufacturers with insights into their potential data risks, this framework addresses an outcome identified by the NIST Cybersecurity Framework.« less

Framework for Identifying Cybersecurity Risks in Manufacturing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hutchins, Margot J.; Bhinge, Raunak; Micali, Maxwell K.

Increasing connectivity, use of digital computation, and off-site data storage provide potential for dramatic improvements in manufacturing productivity, quality, and cost. However, there are also risks associated with the increased volume and pervasiveness of data that are generated and potentially accessible to competitors or adversaries. Enterprises have experienced cyber attacks that exfiltrate confidential and/or proprietary data, alter information to cause an unexpected or unwanted effect, and destroy capital assets. Manufacturers need tools to incorporate these risks into their existing risk management processes. This article establishes a framework that considers the data flows within a manufacturing enterprise and throughout its supplymore » chain. The framework provides several mechanisms for identifying generic and manufacturing-specific vulnerabilities and is illustrated with details pertinent to an automotive manufacturer. Finally, in addition to providing manufacturers with insights into their potential data risks, this framework addresses an outcome identified by the NIST Cybersecurity Framework.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rivera, W. Gary; Robinson, David Gerald; Wyss, Gregory Dane

The charter for adversarial delay is to hinder access to critical resources through the use of physical systems increasing an adversarys task time. The traditional method for characterizing access delay has been a simple model focused on accumulating times required to complete each task with little regard to uncertainty, complexity, or decreased efficiency associated with multiple sequential tasks or stress. The delay associated with any given barrier or path is further discounted to worst-case, and often unrealistic, times based on a high-level adversary, resulting in a highly conservative calculation of total delay. This leads to delay systems that require significantmore » funding and personnel resources in order to defend against the assumed threat, which for many sites and applications becomes cost prohibitive. A new methodology has been developed that considers the uncertainties inherent in the problem to develop a realistic timeline distribution for a given adversary path. This new methodology incorporates advanced Bayesian statistical theory and methodologies, taking into account small sample size, expert judgment, human factors and threat uncertainty. The result is an algorithm that can calculate a probability distribution function of delay times directly related to system risk. Through further analysis, the access delay analyst or end user can use the results in making informed decisions while weighing benefits against risks, ultimately resulting in greater system effectiveness with lower cost.« less

Cyber situation awareness: modeling detection of cyber attacks with instance-based learning theory.

PubMed

Dutt, Varun; Ahn, Young-Suk; Gonzalez, Cleotilde

2013-06-01

To determine the effects of an adversary's behavior on the defender's accurate and timely detection of network threats. Cyber attacks cause major work disruption. It is important to understand how a defender's behavior (experience and tolerance to threats), as well as adversarial behavior (attack strategy), might impact the detection of threats. In this article, we use cognitive modeling to make predictions regarding these factors. Different model types representing a defender, based on Instance-Based Learning Theory (IBLT), faced different adversarial behaviors. A defender's model was defined by experience of threats: threat-prone (90% threats and 10% nonthreats) and nonthreat-prone (10% threats and 90% nonthreats); and different tolerance levels to threats: risk-averse (model declares a cyber attack after perceiving one threat out of eight total) and risk-seeking (model declares a cyber attack after perceiving seven threats out of eight total). Adversarial behavior is simulated by considering different attack strategies: patient (threats occur late) and impatient (threats occur early). For an impatient strategy, risk-averse models with threat-prone experiences show improved detection compared with risk-seeking models with nonthreat-prone experiences; however, the same is not true for a patient strategy. Based upon model predictions, a defender's prior threat experiences and his or her tolerance to threats are likely to predict detection accuracy; but considering the nature of adversarial behavior is also important. Decision-support tools that consider the role of a defender's experience and tolerance to threats along with the nature of adversarial behavior are likely to improve a defender's overall threat detection.

A5: Automated Analysis of Adversarial Android Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-03

algorithm is fairly intuitive. First, A5 invokes the DED [11] decompiler to create Java classes from the Android application code. Next, A5 uses Soot [30...implemented such as Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, sensors , etc. These hardware features are very common in physical devices and are simply not present in the...such as Androguard [1] and Soot [30]. Deficiencies in these tools may also manifest in A5. The bytecode static analysis is limited to finding only

Status of risk-benefit analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Horn, A.J.; Wilson, R.

1976-12-01

The benefits and deficiencies of cost benefit analysis are reviewed. It is pointed out that, if decision making involving risks and benefits is to improve, more attention must be paid to the clear presentation of the assumptions, values, and results. Reports need to present concise summaries which convey the uncertainties and limitations of the analysis in addition to the matrix of costs, risks, and benefits. As the field of risk-benefit analysis advances the estimation of risks and benefits will become more precise and implicit valuations will be made more explicit. Corresponding improvements must also be made to enhance communications betweenmore » the risk-benefit analyst and the accountable decision maker.« less

A 2D chaotic path planning for mobile robots accomplishing boundary surveillance missions in adversarial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curiac, Daniel-Ioan; Volosencu, Constantin

2014-10-01

The path-planning algorithm represents a crucial issue for every autonomous mobile robot. In normal circumstances a patrol robot will compute an optimal path to ensure its task accomplishment, but in adversarial conditions the problem is getting more complicated. Here, the robot’s trajectory needs to be altered into a misleading and unpredictable path to cope with potential opponents. Chaotic systems provide the needed framework for obtaining unpredictable motion in all of the three basic robot surveillance missions: area, points of interests and boundary monitoring. Proficient approaches have been provided for the first two surveillance tasks, but for boundary patrol missions no method has been reported yet. This paper addresses the mentioned research gap by proposing an efficient method, based on chaotic dynamic of the Hénon system, to ensure unpredictable boundary patrol on any shape of chosen closed contour.

Space Station Program threat and vulnerability analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Meter, Steven D.; Veatch, John D.

1987-01-01

An examination has been made of the physical security of the Space Station Program at the Kennedy Space Center in a peacetime environment, in order to furnish facility personnel with threat/vulnerability information. A risk-management approach is used to prioritize threat-target combinations that are characterized in terms of 'insiders' and 'outsiders'. Potential targets were identified and analyzed with a view to their attractiveness to an adversary, as well as to the consequentiality of the resulting damage.

Human collective dynamics: Two groups in adversarial encounter. [melete code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandoval, D.L.; Harlow, F.H.; Genin, K.E.

1988-04-01

The behavior of a group of people depends strongly on the interaction of personal (individual) traits with the collective moods of the group as a whole. We have developed a computer program to model circumstances of this nature with recognition of the crucial role played by such psychological properties as fear, excitement, peer pressure, moral outrage, and anger, together with the distribution among participants of intrinsic susceptibilities to these emotions. This report extends previous work to consider two groups of people in adversarial encounter, for example, two platoons in battle, a SWAT team against rioting prisoners, or opposing mobs ofmore » different ethnic backgrounds. Closely related applications of the modeling include prowling groups of predatory animals interacting with herds of prey, and even the ''slow-mob'' behavior of social or political units in their response to legislative or judicial activities. Examples in this present study emphasize battlefield encounters, with each group characterizzed by its susceptibilities, skills, and other manifestions of both intentional and accidental circumstances. Specifically, we investigate the relative importance of leadership, camaraderie, training level (i.e. skill in firing weapons), bravery, excitability, and dedication in the battle performance of personnel with random or specified distributions of capabilities and susceptibilities in these various regards. The goal is to exhibit the probable outcome of these encounters in circumstances involving specified battle goals and distributions of terrain impediments. A collateral goal is to provide a real-time hands-on battle simulator into which a leadership trainee can insert his own interactive command.« less

An Analysis of Technology Transition Within the Department of Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

relentless adversaries, it is essential that the DoD performs technology transition in a practical yet expedient manner. Time is a critical factor in...themselves, rather than rely on DOD labs to do so—a practice that brings cost and schedule risk since programs may well find themselves addressing problems...that utilized non-traditional, industry practices to abate the difficulties bringing technologies to a suitable maturation state. Albeit these

Proposed Doctrine Based Structure of the Armored Reconnaissance Squadron

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-09

adversarial, non -state non -adversarial and International Organizations (IO). Non -state adversarial are groups that oppose the interest and priorities of...Canada and its partners; these groups include violent extremist organizations and criminal organizations. Non - state non -adversarial are groups that... Grouping can be executed to facilitate control , communications, function or output of a collection. Recall, that for the purpose of this analysis

Cyber Adversary Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-01

that the Government formulated or supplied the drawings, specifications, or other data does not license the holder or any other person or corporation ...preparation. Berk , V. H., Cybenko, G., Souza, I. G. D., & Murphy, J. P. (2012, January). “Managing Malicious Insider Risk through BANDIT.” In System... finances , human resources for example; • Tactics – Short term goals and techniques to achieve those goals; • Strategy – Long term outcomes and

WMD Intent Identification and Interaction Analysis Using the Dark Web

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

WMD Intent Identification and Interaction Analysis Using the Dark Web Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release; distribution is...Organization/Institution: University of Arizona Project Title: WMD Intent Identification and Interaction Analysis Using the Dark Web Report Period: Final...and social media analytics. We are leveraging our highly successful Dark Web project as our research testbed (for identifying target adversarial

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.

1997-08-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities andmore » that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.« less

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and risk...

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and risk...

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and risk...

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant...) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive... possible after the data breach, a non-VA entity with relevant expertise in data breach assessment and risk...

PTSD symptoms, satisfaction with life, and prejudicial attitudes toward the adversary among Israeli civilians exposed to ongoing missile attacks.

PubMed

Besser, Avi; Neria, Yuval

2009-08-01

Few studies have examined the consequences of exposure to ongoing missile attacks in civilian populations. The authors examine the relationships between such exposure, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), satisfaction with life, and prejudicial attitudes toward the adversary. By using a stratified probability sampling, 160 adults, exposed to repeated missile attacks in southern Israel, were compared to 181 adults from areas outside the range of these attacks. Exposed participants reported more PTSD symptoms and less satisfaction with life, as compared to unexposed participants. The associations between PTSD and satisfaction with life and between PTSD and prejudicial attitudes were significantly stronger among the exposed participants, as compared to those who were not exposed to the attacks. Theoretical and clinical implications of the findings are discussed.

A concept analysis of forensic risk.

PubMed

Kettles, A M

2004-08-01

Forensic risk is a term used in relation to many forms of clinical practice, such as assessment, intervention and management. Rarely is the term defined in the literature and as a concept it is multifaceted. Concept analysis is a method for exploring and evaluating the meaning of words. It gives precise definitions, both theoretical and operational, for use in theory, clinical practice and research. A concept analysis provides a logical basis for defining terms through providing defining attributes, case examples (model, contrary, borderline, related), antecedents and consequences and the implications for nursing. Concept analysis helps us to refine and define a concept that derives from practice, research or theory. This paper will use the strategy of concept analysis to find a working definition for the concept of forensic risk. In conclusion, the historical background and literature are reviewed using concept analysis to bring the term into focus and to define it more clearly. Forensic risk is found to derive both from forensic practice and from risk theory. A proposed definition of forensic risk is given.

Risk analysis based on hazards interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost

2017-04-01

Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).

Automatic Large-Scalae 3d Building Shape Refinement Using Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bittner, K.; d'Angelo, P.; Körner, M.; Reinartz, P.

2018-05-01

Three-dimensional building reconstruction from remote sensing imagery is one of the most difficult and important 3D modeling problems for complex urban environments. The main data sources provided the digital representation of the Earths surface and related natural, cultural, and man-made objects of the urban areas in remote sensing are the digital surface models (DSMs). The DSMs can be obtained either by light detection and ranging (LIDAR), SAR interferometry or from stereo images. Our approach relies on automatic global 3D building shape refinement from stereo DSMs using deep learning techniques. This refinement is necessary as the DSMs, which are extracted from image matching point clouds, suffer from occlusions, outliers, and noise. Though most previous works have shown promising results for building modeling, this topic remains an open research area. We present a new methodology which not only generates images with continuous values representing the elevation models but, at the same time, enhances the 3D object shapes, buildings in our case. Mainly, we train a conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN) to generate accurate LIDAR-like DSM height images from the noisy stereo DSM input. The obtained results demonstrate the strong potential of creating large areas remote sensing depth images where the buildings exhibit better-quality shapes and roof forms.

Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.

PubMed

Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal

2018-02-01

Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Generative adversarial networks recover features in astrophysical images of galaxies beyond the deconvolution limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schawinski, Kevin; Zhang, Ce; Zhang, Hantian; Fowler, Lucas; Santhanam, Gokula Krishnan

2017-05-01

Observations of astrophysical objects such as galaxies are limited by various sources of random and systematic noise from the sky background, the optical system of the telescope and the detector used to record the data. Conventional deconvolution techniques are limited in their ability to recover features in imaging data by the Shannon-Nyquist sampling theorem. Here, we train a generative adversarial network (GAN) on a sample of 4550 images of nearby galaxies at 0.01 < z < 0.02 from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and conduct 10× cross-validation to evaluate the results. We present a method using a GAN trained on galaxy images that can recover features from artificially degraded images with worse seeing and higher noise than the original with a performance that far exceeds simple deconvolution. The ability to better recover detailed features such as galaxy morphology from low signal to noise and low angular resolution imaging data significantly increases our ability to study existing data sets of astrophysical objects as well as future observations with observatories such as the Large Synoptic Sky Telescope (LSST) and the Hubble and James Webb space telescopes.

Bridging the two cultures of risk analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jasanoff, S.

1993-04-01

During the past 15 years, risk analysis has come of age as an interdisciplinary field of remarkable breadth, nurturing connections among fields as diverse as mathematics, biostatistics, toxicology, and engineering on one hand, and law, psychology, sociology, and economics on the other hand. In this editorial, the author addresses the question: What has the presence of social scientists in the network meant to the substantive development of the field of risk analysis The answers offered here discuss the substantial progress in bridging the two cultures of risk analysis. Emphasis is made of the continual need for monitoring risk analysis. Topicsmore » include: the micro-worlds of risk assessment; constraining assumptions; and exchange programs. 14 refs.« less

Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chueng, Kar-Ming

2008-01-01

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a risk management approach that allows planners to quantify the risk and efficiency tradeoff in the presence of uncertainties, and to make forward-looking choices in the development and execution of the plan. Demonstrate a planning and risk analysis framework that tightly integrates mathematical optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to solve complex problems.

Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

PubMed

Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

2017-08-01

With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Using adversary text to detect adversary phase changes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Speed, Ann Elizabeth; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Warrender, Christina E.

2009-05-01

The purpose of this work was to help develop a research roadmap and small proof ofconcept for addressing key problems and gaps from the perspective of using text analysis methods as a primary tool for detecting when a group is undergoing a phase change. Self- rganizing map (SOM) techniques were used to analyze text data obtained from the tworld-wide web. Statistical studies indicate that it may be possible to predict phase changes, as well as detect whether or not an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.

An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications.

PubMed

Aven, Terje

2018-05-01

To solve real-life problems-such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change-and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community. It builds on a fundamental change in thinking, from the search for accurate predictions and risk estimates, to knowledge generation related to concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods, and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and (in a broad sense) manage risk. Examples are used to illustrate the importance of this distinct/separate risk analysis science for solving risk problems, supporting science in general and other disciplines in particular. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk analysis of computer system designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vallone, A.

1981-01-01

Adverse events during implementation can affect final capabilities, schedule and cost of a computer system even though the system was accurately designed and evaluated. Risk analysis enables the manager to forecast the impact of those events and to timely ask for design revisions or contingency plans before making any decision. This paper presents a structured procedure for an effective risk analysis. The procedure identifies the required activities, separates subjective assessments from objective evaluations, and defines a risk measure to determine the analysis results. The procedure is consistent with the system design evaluation and enables a meaningful comparison among alternative designs.

Engineering Trade-off Considerations Regarding Design-for-Security, Design-for-Verification, and Design-for-Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie; Label, Kenneth

2018-01-01

The United States government has identified that application specific integrated circuit (ASIC) and field programmable gate array (FPGA) hardware are at risk from a variety of adversary attacks. This finding affects system security and trust. Consequently, processes are being developed for system mitigation and countermeasure application. The scope of this tutorial pertains to potential vulnerabilities and countermeasures within the ASIC/FPGA design cycle. The presentation demonstrates how design practices can affect the risk for the adversary to: change circuitry, steal intellectual property, and listen to data operations. An important portion of the design cycle is assuring the design is working as specified or as expected. This is accomplished by exhaustive testing of the target design. Alternatively, it has been shown that well established schemes for test coverage enhancement (design-for-verification (DFV) and design-for-test (DFT)) can create conduits for adversary accessibility. As a result, it is essential to perform a trade between robust test coverage versus reliable design implementation. The goal of this tutorial is to explain the evolution of design practices; review adversary accessibility points due to DFV and DFT circuitry insertion (back door circuitry); and to describe common engineering trade-off considerations for test versus adversary threats.

ITS risk analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-06-01

Risk analysis plays a key role in the implementation of an architecture. Early definition of the situations, processes, or events that have the potential for impeding the implementation of key elements of the ITS National Architecture is a critical e...

Auditing Rational Adversaries to Provably Manage Risks

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-23

series of white papers on accountability-based privacy governance in which one recommendation is that organisations should have in place policies and...that this state of affairs raises is how to design effective audit and punishment schemes. This paper articulates a desirable property and presents an...In this section, we provide an overview of our model using a motivating scenario that will serve as a running example for this paper . Consider a

14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Debris risk analysis. 417.225 Section 417.225 Aeronautics and Space COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION, FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A...

Strategic Mobility 21: Integrated Tracking System Analysis and Concept Design

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-08-31

public and foreign nationals, companies, and governments , including adversary governments , and may be exported. c. This statement may not be used on...42 ii Integrated Tracking System Analysis & Concept Design LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Southern California Association of Governments ...conducted under the auspices of the California State University – Long Beach Foundation, a government -industry academic collaborative enterprise

Extractive waste management: A risk analysis approach.

PubMed

Mehta, Neha; Dino, Giovanna Antonella; Ajmone-Marsan, Franco; Lasagna, Manuela; Romè, Chiara; De Luca, Domenico Antonio

2018-05-01

Abandoned mine sites continue to present serious environmental hazards because the heavy metals associated with extractive waste are continuously released into the environment, where they threaten human life and the environment. Remediating and securing extractive waste are complex, lengthy and costly processes. Thus, in most European countries, a site is considered for intervention when it poses a risk to human health and the surrounding environment. As a consequence, risk analysis presents a viable decisional approach towards the management of extractive waste. To evaluate the effects posed by extractive waste to human health and groundwater, a risk analysis approach was used for an abandoned nickel extraction site in Campello Monti in North Italy. This site is located in the Southern Italian Alps. The area consists of large and voluminous mafic rocks intruded by mantle peridotite. The mining activities in this area have generated extractive waste. A risk analysis of the site was performed using Risk Based Corrective Action (RBCA) guidelines, considering the properties of extractive waste and water for the properties of environmental matrices. The results showed the presence of carcinogenic risk due to arsenic and risks to groundwater due to nickel. The results of the risk analysis form a basic understanding of the current situation at the site, which is affected by extractive waste. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

PubMed

Hansson, Sven Ove

2018-02-26

Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

TITLE: Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Fengshan Liu...SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations 5b. GRANT NUMBER...identifying the prevalence of women with incomplete visualization of the breast . We developed a code to estimate the breast cancer risks using the

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis,more » and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.« less

Risk-Stratified Imputation in Survival Analysis

PubMed Central

Kennedy, Richard E.; Adragni, Kofi P.; Tiwari, Hemant K.; Voeks, Jenifer H.; Brott, Thomas G.; Howard, George

2013-01-01

Background Censoring that is dependent on covariates associated with survival can arise in randomized trials due to changes in recruitment and eligibility criteria to minimize withdrawals, potentially leading to biased treatment effect estimates. Imputation approaches have been proposed to address censoring in survival analysis; and while these approaches may provide unbiased estimates of treatment effects, imputation of a large number of outcomes may over- or underestimate the associated variance based on the imputation pool selected. Purpose We propose an improved method, risk-stratified imputation, as an alternative to address withdrawal related to the risk of events in the context of time-to-event analyses. Methods Our algorithm performs imputation from a pool of replacement subjects with similar values of both treatment and covariate(s) of interest, that is, from a risk-stratified sample. This stratification prior to imputation addresses the requirement of time-to-event analysis that censored observations are representative of all other observations in the risk group with similar exposure variables. We compared our risk-stratified imputation to case deletion and bootstrap imputation in a simulated dataset in which the covariate of interest (study withdrawal) was related to treatment. A motivating example from a recent clinical trial is also presented to demonstrate the utility of our method. Results In our simulations, risk-stratified imputation gives estimates of treatment effect comparable to bootstrap and auxiliary variable imputation while avoiding inaccuracies of the latter two in estimating the associated variance. Similar results were obtained in analysis of clinical trial data. Limitations Risk-stratified imputation has little advantage over other imputation methods when covariates of interest are not related to treatment, although its performance is superior when covariates are related to treatment. Risk-stratified imputation is intended for

The Importance of Context: Risk-based De-identification of Biomedical Data.

PubMed

Prasser, Fabian; Kohlmayer, Florian; Kuhn, Klaus A

2016-08-05

Data sharing is a central aspect of modern biomedical research. It is accompanied by significant privacy concerns and often data needs to be protected from re-identification. With methods of de-identification datasets can be transformed in such a way that it becomes extremely difficult to link their records to identified individuals. The most important challenge in this process is to find an adequate balance between an increase in privacy and a decrease in data quality. Accurately measuring the risk of re-identification in a specific data sharing scenario is an important aspect of data de-identification. Overestimation of risks will significantly deteriorate data quality, while underestimation will leave data prone to attacks on privacy. Several models have been proposed for measuring risks, but there is a lack of generic methods for risk-based data de-identification. The aim of the work described in this article was to bridge this gap and to show how the quality of de-identified datasets can be improved by using risk models to tailor the process of de-identification to a concrete context. We implemented a generic de-identification process and several models for measuring re-identification risks into the ARX de-identification tool for biomedical data. By integrating the methods into an existing framework, we were able to automatically transform datasets in such a way that information loss is minimized while it is ensured that re-identification risks meet a user-defined threshold. We performed an extensive experimental evaluation to analyze the impact of using different risk models and assumptions about the goals and the background knowledge of an attacker on the quality of de-identified data. The results of our experiments show that data quality can be improved significantly by using risk models for data de-identification. On a scale where 100 % represents the original input dataset and 0 % represents a dataset from which all information has been removed, the

Malaria's contribution to World War One - the unexpected adversary.

PubMed

Brabin, Bernard J

2014-12-16

Malaria in the First World War was an unexpected adversary. In 1914, the scientific community had access to new knowledge on transmission of malaria parasites and their control, but the military were unprepared, and underestimated the nature, magnitude and dispersion of this enemy. In summarizing available information for allied and axis military forces, this review contextualizes the challenge posed by malaria, because although data exist across historical, medical and military documents, descriptions are fragmented, often addressing context specific issues. Military malaria surveillance statistics have, therefore, been summarized for all theatres of the War, where available. These indicated that at least 1.5 million solders were infected, with case fatality ranging from 0.2 -5.0%. As more countries became engaged in the War, the problem grew in size, leading to major epidemics in Macedonia, Palestine, Mesopotamia and Italy. Trans-continental passages of parasites and human reservoirs of infection created ideal circumstances for parasite evolution. Details of these epidemics are reviewed, including major epidemics in England and Italy, which developed following home troop evacuations, and disruption of malaria control activities in Italy. Elsewhere, in sub-Saharan Africa many casualties resulted from high malaria exposure combined with minimal control efforts for soldiers considered semi-immune. Prevention activities eventually started but were initially poorly organized and dependent on local enthusiasm and initiative. Nets had to be designed for field use and were fundamental for personal protection. Multiple prevention approaches adopted in different settings and their relative utility are described. Clinical treatment primarily depended on quinine, although efficacy was poor as relapsing Plasmodium vivax and recrudescent Plasmodium falciparum infections were not distinguished and managed appropriately. Reasons for this are discussed and the clinical trial data

Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

2009-04-01

Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

From Adversary to Partner: Have Quality Improvement Organizations Made the Transition?

PubMed Central

Bradley, Elizabeth H; Carlson, Melissa DA; Gallo, William T; Scinto, Jeanne; Campbell, Miriam K; Krumholz, Harlan M

2005-01-01

Objective To describe the perceived impact of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Quality Improvement Organizations (QIOs) on quality of care for patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction, in the context of new efforts to work more collaboratively with hospitals in the pursuit of quality improvement. Data Source Primary data collected from a national random sample of 105 hospital quality management directors interviewed between January and July 2002. Study Design We interviewed quality management directors concerning their interactions with the QIO interventions, the helpfulness of QIO interventions and the degree to which they helped or hindered their hospital quality efforts, and their recommendations for improving QIO effectiveness. Principle Findings More than 90% of hospitals reported that their QIO had initiated specific interventions, the most common being the provision of educational materials, benchmark data, and hospital performance data. Many respondents (60%) rated most QIO interventions as helpful or very helpful, although only one-quarter of respondents believed quality of care would have been worse without the QIO interventions. To increase QIO efficacy, respondents recommended that QIOs appeal more directly to senior administration, target physicians (not just hospital employees), and enhance the perceived validity and timeliness of data used in quality indicators. Conclusions Our study demonstrates that the QIOs have overcome, to some degree, the previously adversarial and punitive roles of Peer Review Organizations with hospitals. The generally positive view among most hospital quality improvement directors concerning the QIO interventions suggests that QIOs are potentially poised to take a leading role in promoting quality of care. However, the full potential of QIOs will likely not be realized until QIOs are able to engender greater engagement from senior hospital administration and physicians. PMID:15762902

49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

PubMed

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-12-01

Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

PubMed

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

PubMed

Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

2013-01-01

When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

Training-Image Based Geostatistical Inversion Using a Spatial Generative Adversarial Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laloy, Eric; Hérault, Romain; Jacques, Diederik; Linde, Niklas

2018-01-01

Probabilistic inversion within a multiple-point statistics framework is often computationally prohibitive for high-dimensional problems. To partly address this, we introduce and evaluate a new training-image based inversion approach for complex geologic media. Our approach relies on a deep neural network of the generative adversarial network (GAN) type. After training using a training image (TI), our proposed spatial GAN (SGAN) can quickly generate 2-D and 3-D unconditional realizations. A key characteristic of our SGAN is that it defines a (very) low-dimensional parameterization, thereby allowing for efficient probabilistic inversion using state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In addition, available direct conditioning data can be incorporated within the inversion. Several 2-D and 3-D categorical TIs are first used to analyze the performance of our SGAN for unconditional geostatistical simulation. Training our deep network can take several hours. After training, realizations containing a few millions of pixels/voxels can be produced in a matter of seconds. This makes it especially useful for simulating many thousands of realizations (e.g., for MCMC inversion) as the relative cost of the training per realization diminishes with the considered number of realizations. Synthetic inversion case studies involving 2-D steady state flow and 3-D transient hydraulic tomography with and without direct conditioning data are used to illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed SGAN-based inversion. For the 2-D case, the inversion rapidly explores the posterior model distribution. For the 3-D case, the inversion recovers model realizations that fit the data close to the target level and visually resemble the true model well.

Robust Structural Analysis and Design of Distributed Control Systems to Prevent Zero Dynamics Attacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weerakkody, Sean; Liu, Xiaofei; Sinopoli, Bruno

We consider the design and analysis of robust distributed control systems (DCSs) to ensure the detection of integrity attacks. DCSs are often managed by independent agents and are implemented using a diverse set of sensors and controllers. However, the heterogeneous nature of DCSs along with their scale leave such systems vulnerable to adversarial behavior. To mitigate this reality, we provide tools that allow operators to prevent zero dynamics attacks when as many as p agents and sensors are corrupted. Such a design ensures attack detectability in deterministic systems while removing the threat of a class of stealthy attacks in stochasticmore » systems. To achieve this goal, we use graph theory to obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for the presence of zero dynamics attacks in terms of the structural interactions between agents and sensors. We then formulate and solve optimization problems which minimize communication networks while also ensuring a resource limited adversary cannot perform a zero dynamics attacks. Polynomial time algorithms for design and analysis are provided.« less

Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

2009-04-01

Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

PubMed

Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

2016-04-01

Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Sexual abuse prevention with high-risk males: the roles of victim empathy and rape myths.

PubMed

Schewe, P A; O'Donohue, W

1993-01-01

The outcome of two sexual abuse prevention programs, one emphasizing victim empathy and the other stressing modifying rape myths, was evaluated with high-risk males. Sixty-eight high-risk males, as determined by self-reported likelihood of committing sexual abuse, were randomly assigned to an empathy-treatment, a facts-treatment, or a no-treatment control group. Treatment effects were assessed using subjects' pre- and post-treatment scores on the Likelihood of Sexually Abusing scale, the Rape Empathy Scale, the Acceptance of Interpersonal Violence scale, the Adversarial Sexual Beliefs Scale, and a test of self-reported sexual arousal to forced versus consenting sex. In addition, posttest scores on an Asch-type conformity measure were obtained. Results of validity checks indicated that high-risk subjects differed from low-risk subjects on a number of rape-related variables, that the victim-empathy condition increased subjects' empathy, and that subjects found both treatments to be credible and helpful. Comparisons between the empathy-, facts-, and no-treatment group contraindicated the practice of dispelling rape myths as a method of preventing rape among high-risk males.

CUMULATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDES

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative Risk Analysis for Organophosphorus Pesticides
R. Woodrow Setzer, Jr. NHEERL MD-74, USEPA, RTP, NC 27711

The US EPA has recently completed a risk assessment of the effects of exposure to 33 organophosphorous pesticides (OPs) through the diet, water, and resi...

Evolution of trends in risk management.

PubMed

Aziz, Farah; Khalil, Alizan; Hall, John C

2005-07-01

In the past, the detection and response to adverse clinical events were viewed as an inherent part of professionalism; and, if perceived problems were not sorted out at that level, the ultimate expression of dissatisfaction was litigation. There are now demands for the adoption of more transparent and effective processes for risk management. Reviews of surgical practice have highlighted the presence of unacceptable levels of avoidable adverse events. This is being resolved in two ways. First, attention is being directed to the extent that training and experience have on outcomes after surgery, and both appear to be important. Second, a greater appreciation of human factors engineering has promoted a greater involvement of surgeons in processes involving teamwork and non-technical skills. The community wants surgeons who are competent and health-care systems that minimize risk. In recent times attention has been focused on the turmoil associated with change; but, when events are viewed over a period of several decades, there has been considerable progress towards these ideals. Further advancement would be aided by removing the adversarial nature of malpractice systems that have failed to maintain standards.

Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

2011-12-01

Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability

CaloGAN: Simulating 3D high energy particle showers in multilayer electromagnetic calorimeters with generative adversarial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paganini, Michela; de Oliveira, Luke; Nachman, Benjamin

2018-01-01

The precise modeling of subatomic particle interactions and propagation through matter is paramount for the advancement of nuclear and particle physics searches and precision measurements. The most computationally expensive step in the simulation pipeline of a typical experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is the detailed modeling of the full complexity of physics processes that govern the motion and evolution of particle showers inside calorimeters. We introduce CaloGAN, a new fast simulation technique based on generative adversarial networks (GANs). We apply these neural networks to the modeling of electromagnetic showers in a longitudinally segmented calorimeter and achieve speedup factors comparable to or better than existing full simulation techniques on CPU (100 ×-1000 × ) and even faster on GPU (up to ˜105× ). There are still challenges for achieving precision across the entire phase space, but our solution can reproduce a variety of geometric shower shape properties of photons, positrons, and charged pions. This represents a significant stepping stone toward a full neural network-based detector simulation that could save significant computing time and enable many analyses now and in the future.

Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

PubMed

Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

2014-09-01

Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

PubMed

Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

2015-09-01

We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Practical Guide for the Formulation of Propositions in the Bayesian Approach to DNA Evidence Interpretation in an Adversarial Environment.

PubMed

Gittelson, Simone; Kalafut, Tim; Myers, Steven; Taylor, Duncan; Hicks, Tacha; Taroni, Franco; Evett, Ian W; Bright, Jo-Anne; Buckleton, John

2016-01-01

The interpretation of complex DNA profiles is facilitated by a Bayesian approach. This approach requires the development of a pair of propositions: one aligned to the prosecution case and one to the defense case. This note explores the issue of proposition setting in an adversarial environment by a series of examples. A set of guidelines generalize how to formulate propositions when there is a single person of interest and when there are multiple individuals of interest. Additional explanations cover how to handle multiple defense propositions, relatives, and the transition from subsource level to activity level propositions. The propositions depend on case information and the allegations of each of the parties. The prosecution proposition is usually known. The authors suggest that a sensible proposition is selected for the defense that is consistent with their stance, if available, and consistent with a realistic defense if their position is not known. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Risk as a social phenomenon.

PubMed

Jamison, Wesley V

2003-01-01

What do nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef have in common? The answer is multifaceted. They all share aspects of mass production and consumption, and therefore consumer confidence comes into play in evaluating each of the products' merits. They all produce some level of anxiety--be it in response to adverse media coverage, or the successes of adversarial interest groups in publicizing those products' weaknesses--among consumers who wonder what if any level of the product should be consumed. Finally, nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef all share risk; that is, the perceived and real detriments of producing and consuming those products. Whether or not the associated risks--from increased cancer to increased heart disease--are real is beside the point. When talking about risk, scientific education must deal with the perception of risk as much as its reality. Risk is a socially defined phenomenon, and as such, the successful scientists/communicator must understand the social evaluations of it. While many scientists take a rational view of risk evaluation and consumers often make rational decisions about technological and scientific risk based upon the costs and benefits of that technology, this approach is problematic for three reasons. First, the nature of modern risks has changed in that risk is complex, incomprehensible and uncontrollable to the average person. Second, the rational approach assumes that all costs and benefits of a technology, both real and potential, both current and future, can be known and therefore rationally evaluated. This is not the case. Third, evidence from Europe indicates that trust in information sources about risk has fallen, and thus classic scientific education campaigns that rely upon increasing public knowledge and acceptance of technological and scientific risk are problematic. Because of these factors we argue that effective scientific response must begin to understand the social components of risk if campaigns to shape

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

PubMed

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Evaluating the Risks of Clinical Research: Direct Comparative Analysis

PubMed Central

Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S.; Wendler, David

2014-01-01

Abstract Objectives: Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. Methods: This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Results: Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Conclusions: Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the “risks of daily life” standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about

Impact of model-based risk analysis for liver surgery planning.

PubMed

Hansen, C; Zidowitz, S; Preim, B; Stavrou, G; Oldhafer, K J; Hahn, H K

2014-05-01

A model-based risk analysis for oncologic liver surgery was described in previous work (Preim et al. in Proceedings of international symposium on computer assisted radiology and surgery (CARS), Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 353–358, 2002; Hansen et al. Int I Comput Assist Radiol Surg 4(5):469–474, 2009). In this paper, we present an evaluation of this method. To prove whether and how the risk analysis facilitates the process of liver surgery planning, an explorative user study with 10 liver experts was conducted. The purpose was to compare and analyze their decision-making. The results of the study show that model-based risk analysis enhances the awareness of surgical risk in the planning stage. Participants preferred smaller resection volumes and agreed more on the safety margins’ width in case the risk analysis was available. In addition, time to complete the planning task and confidence of participants were not increased when using the risk analysis. This work shows that the applied model-based risk analysis may influence important planning decisions in liver surgery. It lays a basis for further clinical evaluations and points out important fields for future research.

Coffee consumption and risk of fractures: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, Huifang; Yao, Ke; Zhang, Wenjie; Zhou, Jun; Wu, Taixiang

2012-01-01

Introduction Recent studies have indicated higher risk of fractures among coffee drinkers. To quantitatively assess the association between coffee consumption and the risk of fractures, we conducted this meta-analysis. Material and methods We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for prospective studies reporting the risk of fractures with coffee consumption. Quality of included studies was assessed with the Newcastle Ottawa scale. We conducted a meta-analysis and a cumulative meta-analysis of relative risk (RR) for an increment of one cup of coffee per day, and explored the potential dose-response relationship. Sensitivity analysis was performed where statistical heterogeneity existed. Results We included 10 prospective studies covering 214,059 participants and 9,597 cases. There was overall 3.5% higher fracture risk for an increment of one cup of coffee per day (RR = 1.035, 95% CI: 1.019-1.052). Pooled RRs were 1.049 (95% CI: 1.022-1.077) for women and 0.910 (95% CI: 0.873-0.949) for men. Among women, RR was 1.055 (95% CI: 0.999-1.114) for younger participants, and 1.047 (95% CI: 1.016-1.080) for older ones. Cumulative meta-analysis indicated that risk estimates reached a stabilization level (RR = 1.035, 95% CI: 1.019-1.052), and it revealed a positive dose-response relationship between coffee consumption and risk of fractures either for men and women combined or women specifically. Conclusions This meta-analysis suggests an overall harm of coffee intake in increasing the risk of fractures, especially for women. But current data are insufficient to reach a convincing conclusion and further research needs to be conducted. PMID:23185185

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

Risk analysis for veterinary biologicals released into the environment.

PubMed

Silva, S V; Samagh, B S; Morley, R S

1995-12-01

All veterinary biologicals licensed in Canada must be shown to be pure, potent, safe and effective. A risk-based approach is used to evaluate the safety of all biologicals, whether produced by conventional methods or by molecular biological techniques. Traditionally, qualitative risk assessment methods have been used for this purpose. More recently, quantitative risk assessment has become available for complex issues. The quantitative risk assessment method uses "scenario tree analysis' to predict the likelihood of various outcomes and their respective impacts. The authors describe the quantitative risk assessment approach which is used within the broader context of risk analysis (i.e. risk assessment, risk management and risk communication) to develop recommendations for the field release of veterinary biologicals. The general regulatory framework for the licensing of veterinary biologicals in Canada is also presented.

Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

PubMed

Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

2016-08-13

Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.

2012-02-01

Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coalmore » electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.« less

Inhalation Anthrax: Dose Response and Risk Analysis

PubMed Central

Thran, Brandolyn; Morse, Stephen S.; Hugh-Jones, Martin; Massulik, Stacey

2008-01-01

The notion that inhalation of a single Bacillus anthracis spore is fatal has become entrenched nearly to the point of urban legend, in part because of incomplete articulation of the scientific basis for microbial risk assessment, particularly dose-response assessment. Risk analysis (ie, risk assessment, risk communication, risk management) necessitates transparency: distinguishing scientific facts, hypotheses, judgments, biases in interpretations, and potential misinformation. The difficulty in achieving transparency for biothreat risk is magnified by misinformation and poor characterization of both dose-response relationships and the driving mechanisms that cause susceptibility or resistance to disease progression. Regrettably, this entrenchment unnecessarily restricts preparedness planning to a single response scenario: decontaminate until no spores are detectable in air, water, or on surfaces—essentially forcing a zero-tolerance policy inconsistent with the biology of anthrax. We present evidence about inhalation anthrax dose-response relationships, including reports from multiple studies documenting exposures insufficient to cause inhalation anthrax in laboratory animals and humans. The emphasis of the article is clarification about what is known from objective scientific evidence for doses of anthrax spores associated with survival and mortality. From this knowledge base, we discuss the need for future applications of more formal risk analysis processes to guide development of alternative non-zero criteria or standards based on science to inform preparedness planning and other risk management activities. PMID:18582166

The dissection of risk: a conceptual analysis.

PubMed

O'Byrne, Patrick

2008-03-01

Recently, patient safety has gained popularity in the nursing literature. While this topic is used extensively and has been analyzed thoroughly, some of the concepts upon which it relies, such as risk, have remained undertheorized. In fact, despite its considerable use, the term 'risk' has been largely assumed to be inherently neutral - meaning that its definition and discovery is seen as objective and impartial, and that risk avoidance is natural and logical. Such an oversight in evaluation requires that the concept of risk be thoroughly analyzed as it relates to nursing practices, particularly in relation to those practices surrounding bio-political nursing care, such as public health, as well as other more trendy nursing topics, such as patient safety. Thus, this paper applies the Evolutionary Model of concept analysis to explore 'risk', and expose it as one mechanism of maintaining prescribed/ proscribed social practices. Thereby, an analysis of risk results in the definitions and roles of the discipline and profession of nursing expanding from solely being dedicated to patient care, to include, in addition, its functions as a governmental body that unwittingly maintains hegemonic infrastructures.

49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This... safety and security risk analyses required by § 172.820. The risk analysis to be performed may be...

49 CFR Appendix D to Part 172 - Rail Risk Analysis Factors

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Rail Risk Analysis Factors D Appendix D to Part... REQUIREMENTS, AND SECURITY PLANS Pt. 172, App. D Appendix D to Part 172—Rail Risk Analysis Factors A. This... safety and security risk analyses required by § 172.820. The risk analysis to be performed may be...

Multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management.

PubMed

Hämäläinen, R P; Lindstedt, M R; Sinkko, K

2000-08-01

Radiation protection authorities have seen a potential for applying multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management and planning to deal with conflicting objectives, different parties involved, and uncertainties. This type of approach is expected to help in the following areas: to ensure that all relevant attributes are considered in decision making; to enhance communication between the concerned parties, including the public; and to provide a method for explicitly including risk analysis in the process. A multiattribute utility theory analysis was used to select a strategy for protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident. The value-focused approach and the use of a neutral facilitator were identified as being useful.

PSFGAN: a generative adversarial network system for separating quasar point sources and host galaxy light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stark, Dominic; Launet, Barthelemy; Schawinski, Kevin; Zhang, Ce; Koss, Michael; Turp, M. Dennis; Sartori, Lia F.; Zhang, Hantian; Chen, Yiru; Weigel, Anna K.

2018-06-01

The study of unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) and quasars depends on the reliable decomposition of the light from the AGN point source and the extended host galaxy light. The problem is typically approached using parametric fitting routines using separate models for the host galaxy and the point spread function (PSF). We present a new approach using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) trained on galaxy images. We test the method using Sloan Digital Sky Survey r-band images with artificial AGN point sources added that are then removed using the GAN and with parametric methods using GALFIT. When the AGN point source is more than twice as bright as the host galaxy, we find that our method, PSFGAN, can recover point source and host galaxy magnitudes with smaller systematic error and a lower average scatter (49 per cent). PSFGAN is more tolerant to poor knowledge of the PSF than parametric methods. Our tests show that PSFGAN is robust against a broadening in the PSF width of ± 50 per cent if it is trained on multiple PSFs. We demonstrate that while a matched training set does improve performance, we can still subtract point sources using a PSFGAN trained on non-astronomical images. While initial training is computationally expensive, evaluating PSFGAN on data is more than 40 times faster than GALFIT fitting two components. Finally, PSFGAN is more robust and easy to use than parametric methods as it requires no input parameters.

Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

2017-07-01

Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

PubMed

Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

2015-04-01

A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

2015-10-01

In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

PubMed

Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

2016-04-01

An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

Tsunamis: Global Exposure and Local Risk Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Glimsdal, S.; Horspool, N.; Griffin, J.; Davies, G.; Frauenfelder, R.

2014-12-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to a better understanding of the likelihood of tsunami occurrence and potential tsunami inundation, and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) was one direct result of this event. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN-ISDR) adopted HFA in January 2005 in order to reduce disaster risk. As an instrument to compare the risk due to different natural hazards, an integrated worldwide study was implemented and published in several Global Assessment Reports (GAR) by UN-ISDR. The results of the global earthquake induced tsunami hazard and exposure analysis for a return period of 500 years are presented. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods (PTHA) are used. The resulting hazard levels for both methods are compared quantitatively for selected areas. The comparison demonstrates that the analysis is rather rough, which is expected for a study aiming at average trends on a country level across the globe. It is shown that populous Asian countries account for the largest absolute number of people living in tsunami prone areas, more than 50% of the total exposed people live in Japan. Smaller nations like Macao and the Maldives are among the most exposed by population count. Exposed nuclear power plants are limited to Japan, China, India, Taiwan, and USA. On the contrary, a local tsunami vulnerability and risk analysis applies information on population, building types, infrastructure, inundation, flow depth for a certain tsunami scenario with a corresponding return period combined with empirical data on tsunami damages and mortality. Results and validation of a GIS tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment model are presented. The GIS model is adapted for optimal use of data available for each study. Finally, the importance of including landslide sources in the tsunami analysis is also discussed.

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) themore » Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

PubMed

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Benefit-risk analysis : a brief review and proposed quantitative approaches.

PubMed

Holden, William L

2003-01-01

Given the current status of benefit-risk analysis as a largely qualitative method, two techniques for a quantitative synthesis of a drug's benefit and risk are proposed to allow a more objective approach. The recommended methods, relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-treat (RV-NNT) and its extension, minimum clinical efficacy (MCE) analysis, rely upon efficacy or effectiveness data, adverse event data and utility data from patients, describing their preferences for an outcome given potential risks. These methods, using hypothetical data for rheumatoid arthritis drugs, demonstrate that quantitative distinctions can be made between drugs which would better inform clinicians, drug regulators and patients about a drug's benefit-risk profile. If the number of patients needed to treat is less than the relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-harm in an RV-NNT analysis, patients are willing to undergo treatment with the experimental drug to derive a certain benefit knowing that they may be at risk for any of a series of potential adverse events. Similarly, the results of an MCE analysis allow for determining the worth of a new treatment relative to an older one, given not only the potential risks of adverse events and benefits that may be gained, but also by taking into account the risk of disease without any treatment. Quantitative methods of benefit-risk analysis have a place in the evaluative armamentarium of pharmacovigilance, especially those that incorporate patients' perspectives.

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish amore » lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.« less

Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2017-04-01

Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presentedmore » a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.« less

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

PubMed

I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

2008-05-01

Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

Attack Methodology Analysis: Emerging Trends in Computer-Based Attack Methodologies and Their Applicability to Control System Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bri Rolston

2005-06-01

Threat characterization is a key component in evaluating the threat faced by control systems. Without a thorough understanding of the threat faced by critical infrastructure networks, adequate resources cannot be allocated or directed effectively to the defense of these systems. Traditional methods of threat analysis focus on identifying the capabilities and motivations of a specific attacker, assessing the value the adversary would place on targeted systems, and deploying defenses according to the threat posed by the potential adversary. Too many effective exploits and tools exist and are easily accessible to anyone with access to an Internet connection, minimal technical skills,more » and a significantly reduced motivational threshold to be able to narrow the field of potential adversaries effectively. Understanding how hackers evaluate new IT security research and incorporate significant new ideas into their own tools provides a means of anticipating how IT systems are most likely to be attacked in the future. This research, Attack Methodology Analysis (AMA), could supply pertinent information on how to detect and stop new types of attacks. Since the exploit methodologies and attack vectors developed in the general Information Technology (IT) arena can be converted for use against control system environments, assessing areas in which cutting edge exploit development and remediation techniques are occurring can provide significance intelligence for control system network exploitation, defense, and a means of assessing threat without identifying specific capabilities of individual opponents. Attack Methodology Analysis begins with the study of what exploit technology and attack methodologies are being developed in the Information Technology (IT) security research community within the black and white hat community. Once a solid understanding of the cutting edge security research is established, emerging trends in attack methodology can be identified and the gap

Alzheimer disease and cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shi, Hai-bin; Tang, Bo; Liu, Yao-Wen; Wang, Xue-Feng; Chen, Guo-Jun

2015-03-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) and cancer are seemingly two opposite ends of one spectrum. Studies have suggested that patients with AD showed a reduced risk of cancer and vice versa. However, available evidences are not conclusive. So we conducted a meta-analysis using published literatures to systematically examine cancer risk in AD patients. A PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science search were conducted in May 2014. Pooled risk ratios (RRs) with their corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using random-effects meta-analysis. We tested for publication bias and heterogeneity, and stratified for study characteristics, smoking-related cancers versus nonsmoking-related cancers, and site-specific cancers. Nine studies were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with controls, the pooled RR of cancer in AD patients was 0.55 (95 % CI 0.41-0.75), with significant heterogeneity among these studies (P < 0.001, I(2) = 83.5 %). The reduced cancer risk was more substantial when we restricted analyses to cohort studies, studies with adjusted estimates, studies defining AD by generally accepted criteria, and studies with longer length of follow-up. In sub-analyses for site-specific cancers, only lung cancer showed significant decreased risk (RR 0.72; 95 % CI 0.56-0.91). We did not find significant publication bias (P = 0.251 for Begg and Mazumdar's test and P = 0.143 for Egger's regression asymmetry test). These results support an association between AD and decreased cancer risk.

A semi-quantitative approach to GMO risk-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Morris, E Jane

2011-10-01

In many countries there are increasing calls for the benefits of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to be considered as well as the risks, and for a risk-benefit analysis to form an integral part of GMO regulatory frameworks. This trend represents a shift away from the strict emphasis on risks, which is encapsulated in the Precautionary Principle that forms the basis for the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and which is reflected in the national legislation of many countries. The introduction of risk-benefit analysis of GMOs would be facilitated if clear methodologies were available to support the analysis. Up to now, methodologies for risk-benefit analysis that would be applicable to the introduction of GMOs have not been well defined. This paper describes a relatively simple semi-quantitative methodology that could be easily applied as a decision support tool, giving particular consideration to the needs of regulators in developing countries where there are limited resources and experience. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the release of an insect resistant maize variety in South Africa as a case study. The applicability of the method in the South African regulatory system is also discussed, as an example of what might be involved in introducing changes into an existing regulatory process.

Practical results from a mathematical analysis of guard patrols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Indusi, Joseph P.

1978-12-01

Using guard patrols as a primary detection mechanism is not generally viewed as a highly efficient detection method when compared to electronic means. Many factors such as visibility, alertness, and the space-time coincidence of guard and adversary presence all have an effect on the probability of detection. Mathematical analysis of the guard patrol detection problem is related to that of classical search theory originally developed for naval search operations. The results of this analysis tend to support the current practice of using guard forces to assess and respond to previously detected intrusions and not as the primary detection mechanism. 6more » refs.« less

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in themore » risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.« less

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... preparation of the risk analysis may include data mining if necessary for the development of relevant... degree of protection for the data, e.g., unencrypted, plain text; (6) Time the data has been out of VA...

The Use and Abuse of Risk Analysis in Policy Debate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herbeck, Dale A.; Katsulas, John P.

The best check on the preposterous claims of crisis rhetoric is an appreciation of the nature of risk analysis and how it functions in argumentation. The use of risk analysis is common in policy debate. While the stock issues paradigm focused the debate exclusively on the affirmative case, the advent of policy systems analysis has transformed…

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

PubMed

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

2018-04-01

There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

14 CFR Appendix C to Part 420 - Risk Analysis

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Analysis C Appendix C to Part 420... TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LICENSE TO OPERATE A LAUNCH SITE Pt. 420, App. C Appendix C to Part 420—Risk Analysis (a... table C-1. Table C-1 provides sources where an applicant may obtain data acceptable to the FAA. An...

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fraass, B.

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. Wemore » therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation

Proton-pump inhibitors and risk of fractures: an update meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, B; Huang, Y; Li, H; Sun, W; Liu, J

2016-01-01

To identify the relationship between proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) and the risk of fracture, we conducted an update meta-analysis of observational studies. Results showed that PPI use was associated with a modestly increased risk of hip, spine, and any-site fracture. Many studies have investigated the association of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) with fracture risk, but the results have been inconsistent. To evaluate this question, we performed a meta-analysis of relevant observational studies. A systematic literature search up to February 2015 was performed in PubMed. We combined relative risks (RRs) for fractures using random-effects models and conducted subgroup and stratified analyses. Eighteen studies involving a total of 244,109 fracture cases were included in this meta-analysis. Pooled analysis showed that PPI use could moderately increase the risk of hip fracture [RR = 1.26, 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) 1.16–1.36]. There was statistically significant heterogeneity among studies (p < 0.001; I 2 = 71.9 %). After limiting to cohort studies, there was also a moderate increase in hip fracture risk without evidence of study heterogeneity. Pooling revealed that short-term use (<1 year) and longer use (>1 year) were similarly associated with increased risk of hip fracture. Furthermore, a moderately increased risk of spine (RR = 1.58, 95 % CI 1.38–1.82) and any-site fracture (RR = 1.33, 95 % CI 1.15–1.54) was also found among PPI users. In this update meta-analysis of observational studies, PPI use modestly increased the risk of hip, spine, and any-site fracture, but no evidence of duration effect in subgroup analysis.

Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

2018-03-01

In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

Applicability of risk-based management and the need for risk-based economic decision analysis at hazardous waste contaminated sites.

PubMed

Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

2003-07-01

Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacDonald, Douglas G.; Clements, Samuel L.; Patrick, Scott W.

Securing high value and critical assets is one of the biggest challenges facing this nation and others around the world. In modern integrated systems, there are four potential modes of attack available to an adversary: • physical only attack, • cyber only attack, • physical-enabled cyber attack, • cyber-enabled physical attack. Blended attacks involve an adversary working in one domain to reduce system effectiveness in another domain. This enables the attacker to penetrate further into the overall layered defenses. Existing vulnerability assessment (VA) processes and software tools which predict facility vulnerabilities typically evaluate the physical and cyber domains separately. Vulnerabilitiesmore » which result from the integration of cyber-physical control systems are not well characterized and are often overlooked by existing assessment approaches. In this paper, we modified modification of the timely detection methodology, used for decades in physical security VAs, to include cyber components. The Physical and Cyber Risk Analysis Tool (PACRAT) prototype illustrates an integrated vulnerability assessment that includes cyber-physical interdependencies. Information about facility layout, network topology, and emplaced safeguards is used to evaluate how well suited a facility is to detect, delay, and respond to attacks, to identify the pathways most vulnerable to attack, and to evaluate how often safeguards are compromised for a given threat or adversary type. We have tested the PACRAT prototype on critical infrastructure facilities and the results are promising. Future work includes extending the model to prescribe the recommended security improvements via an automated cost-benefit analysis.« less

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such

Stingray Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis: WEC Risk Registers

DOE Data Explorer

Ken Rhinefrank

2016-07-25

Analysis method to systematically identify all potential failure modes and their effects on the Stingray WEC system. This analysis is incorporated early in the development cycle such that the mitigation of the identified failure modes can be achieved cost effectively and efficiently. The FMECA can begin once there is enough detail to functions and failure modes of a given system, and its interfaces with other systems. The FMECA occurs coincidently with the design process and is an iterative process which allows for design changes to overcome deficiencies in the analysis.Risk Registers for major subsystems completed according to the methodology described in "Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis Risk Reduction Program Plan.pdf" document below, in compliance with the DOE Risk Management Framework developed by NREL.

A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

2005-01-01

Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

Risk analysis approach. [of carbon fiber release

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huston, R. J.

1979-01-01

The assessment of the carbon fiber hazard is outlined. Program objectives, requirements of the risk analysis, and elements associated with the physical phenomena of the accidental release are described.

The effectiveness of risk management: an analysis of project risk planning across industries and countries.

PubMed

Zwikael, Ofer; Ahn, Mark

2011-01-01

This article examines the effectiveness of current risk management practices to reduce project risk using a multinational, multi-industry study across different scenarios and cultures. A survey was administered to 701 project managers, and their supervisors, in seven industries and three diverse countries (New Zealand, Israel, and Japan), in multiple languages during the 2002-2007 period. Results of this study show that project context--industry and country where a project is executed--significantly impacts perceived levels of project risk, and the intensity of risk management processes. Our findings also suggest that risk management moderates the relationship between risk level and project success. Specifically, we found that even moderate levels of risk management planning are sufficient to reduce the negative effect risk levels have on project success. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management

Treesearch

Carol Miller; Alan A. Ager

2012-01-01

Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyze the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires. Over the past 10 years, the application of risk analysis to wildland fire management has seen steady growth with new risk-based analytical tools that support a wide range of fire and fuels...

Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

PubMed

Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

2012-01-01

In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

Risk assessment for juvenile justice: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Schwalbe, Craig S

2007-10-01

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.

Risk analysis for dry snow slab avalanche release by skier triggering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClung, David

2013-04-01

Risk analysis is of primary importance for skier triggering of avalanches since human triggering is responsible for about 90% of deaths from slab avalanches in Europe and North America. Two key measureable quantities about dry slab avalanche release prior to initiation are the depth to the weak layer and the slope angle. Both are important in risk analysis. As the slope angle increases, the probability of avalanche release increases dramatically. As the slab depth increases, the consequences increase if an avalanche releases. Among the simplest risk definitions is (Vick, 2002): Risk = (Probability of failure) x (Consequences of failure). Here, these two components of risk are the probability or chance of avalanche release and the consequences given avalanche release. In this paper, for the first time, skier triggered avalanches were analyzed from probability theory and its relation to risk for both the D and . The data consisted of two quantities : (,D) taken from avalanche fracture line profiles after an avalanche has taken place. Two data sets from accidentally skier triggered avalanches were considered: (1) 718 for and (2) a set of 1242 values of D which represent average values along the fracture line. The values of D were both estimated (about 2/3) and measured (about 1/3) by ski guides from Canadian Mountain Holidays CMH). I also analyzed 1231 accidentally skier triggered avalanches reported by CMH ski guides for avalanche size (representing destructive potential) on the Canadian scale. The size analysis provided a second analysis of consequences to verify that using D. The results showed that there is an intermediate range of both D and with highest risk. ForD, the risk (product of consequences and probability of occurrence) is highest for D in the approximate range 0.6 m - 1.0 m. The consequences are low for lower values of D and the chance of release is low for higher values of D. Thus, the highest product is in the intermediate range. For slope angles

Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

2016-04-01

Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

Body mass index and risk of BPH: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, S; Mao, Q; Lin, Y; Wu, J; Wang, X; Zheng, X; Xie, L

2012-09-01

Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting results relating obesity to BPH. A meta-analysis of cohort and case-control studies was conducted to pool the risk estimates of the association between obesity and BPH. Eligible studies were retrieved by both computer searches and review of references. We analyzed abstracted data with random effects models to obtain the summary risk estimates. Dose-response meta-analysis was performed for studies reporting categorical risk estimates for a series of exposure levels. A total of 19 studies met the inclusion criteria of the meta-analysis. Positive association with body mass index (BMI) was observed in BPH and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) combined group (odds ratio=1.27, 95% confidence intervals 1.05-1.53). In subgroup analysis, BMI exhibited a positive dose-response relationship with BPH/LUTS in population-based case-control studies and a marginal positive association was observed between risk of BPH and increased BMI. However, no association between BPH/LUTS and BMI was observed in other subgroups stratified by study design, geographical region or primary outcome. The overall current literatures suggested that BMI was associated with increased risk of BPH. Further efforts should be made to confirm these findings and clarify the underlying biological mechanisms.

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at ‘high risk’: a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools

PubMed Central

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-01-01

Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180

Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

PubMed Central

Bogen, Kenneth T.; Cullen, Alison C.; Frey, H. Christopher; Price, Paul S.

2009-01-01

This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts. PMID:19223660

Risk Analysis Methods for Deepwater Port Oil Transfer Systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-06-01

This report deals with the risk analysis methodology for oil spills from the oil transfer systems in deepwater ports. Failure mode and effect analysis in combination with fault tree analysis are identified as the methods best suited for the assessmen...

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

2018-01-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Context Sensing System Analysis for Privacy Preservation Based on Game Theory.

PubMed

Wang, Shengling; Li, Luyun; Sun, Weiman; Guo, Junqi; Bie, Rongfang; Lin, Kai

2017-02-10

In a context sensing system in which a sensor-equipped mobile phone runs an unreliable context-aware application, the application can infer the user's contexts, based on which it provides personalized services. However, the application may sell the user's contexts to some malicious adversaries to earn extra profits, which will hinder its widespread use. In the real world, the actions of the user, the application and the adversary in the context sensing system affect each other, so that their payoffs are constrained mutually. To figure out under which conditions they behave well (the user releases, the application does not leak and the adversary does not retrieve the context), we take advantage of game theory to analyze the context sensing system. We use the extensive form game and the repeated game, respectively, to analyze two typical scenarios, single interaction and multiple interaction among three players, from which Nash equilibriums and cooperation conditions are obtained. Our results show that the reputation mechanism for the context-sensing system in the former scenario is crucial to privacy preservation, so is the extent to which the participants are concerned about future payoffs in the latter one.

Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila

2011-01-01

Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

Chemical facility vulnerability assessment project.

PubMed

Jaeger, Calvin D

2003-11-14

Sandia National Laboratories, under the direction of the Office of Science and Technology, National Institute of Justice, conducted the chemical facility vulnerability assessment (CFVA) project. The primary objective of this project was to develop, test and validate a vulnerability assessment methodology (VAM) for determining the security of chemical facilities against terrorist or criminal attacks (VAM-CF). The project also included a report to the Department of Justice for Congress that in addition to describing the VAM-CF also addressed general observations related to security practices, threats and risks at chemical facilities and chemical transport. In the development of the VAM-CF Sandia leveraged the experience gained from the use and development of VAs in other areas and the input from the chemical industry and Federal agencies. The VAM-CF is a systematic, risk-based approach where risk is a function of the severity of consequences of an undesired event, the attack potential, and the likelihood of adversary success in causing the undesired event. For the purpose of the VAM-CF analyses Risk is a function of S, L(A), and L(AS), where S is the severity of consequence of an event, L(A) is the attack potential and L(AS) likelihood of adversary success in causing a catastrophic event. The VAM-CF consists of 13 basic steps. It involves an initial screening step, which helps to identify and prioritize facilities for further analysis. This step is similar to the prioritization approach developed by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Other steps help to determine the components of the risk equation and ultimately the risk. The VAM-CF process involves identifying the hazardous chemicals and processes at a chemical facility. It helps chemical facilities to focus their attention on the most critical areas. The VAM-CF is not a quantitative analysis but, rather, compares relative security risks. If the risks are deemed too high, recommendations are developed for

7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Analysis. 2.71 Section 2.71 Agriculture Office of the Secretary of Agriculture DELEGATIONS OF AUTHORITY BY... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to human...

7 CFR 2.71 - Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Analysis. 2.71 Section 2.71 Agriculture Office of the Secretary of Agriculture DELEGATIONS OF AUTHORITY BY... Chief Economist § 2.71 Director, Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. (a) Delegations..., Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis: (1) Responsible for assessing the risks to human...

Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

PubMed

Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

2016-01-01

Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

2016-07-01

Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N

Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much.more » Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.« less

NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scroggins, Sharon; Duda, Kristen

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of NASA's risk analysis communication programs associated with changing environmental policies. The topics include: 1) NASA Program Transition; 2) Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC); and 3) Regulatory Tracking and Communication Process.

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

PubMed

van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

2009-12-05

We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis Overestimates the Risk of Revision Arthroplasty: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter D; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

2015-11-01

Although Kaplan-Meier survival analysis is commonly used to estimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint arthroplasty, it theoretically overestimates the risk of revision in the presence of competing risks (such as death). Because the magnitude of overestimation is not well documented, the potential associated impact on clinical and policy decision-making remains unknown. We performed a meta-analysis to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent does the Kaplan-Meier method overestimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint replacement compared with alternative competing-risks methods? (2) Is the extent of overestimation influenced by followup time or rate of competing risks? We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, and Web of Science (1946, 1980, 1980, and 1899, respectively, to October 26, 2013) and included article bibliographies for studies comparing estimated cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using both Kaplan-Meier and competing-risks methods. We excluded conference abstracts, unpublished studies, or studies using simulated data sets. Two reviewers independently extracted data and evaluated the quality of reporting of the included studies. Among 1160 abstracts identified, six studies were included in our meta-analysis. The principal reason for the steep attrition (1160 to six) was that the initial search was for studies in any clinical area that compared the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier versus competing-risks methods for any event (not just the cumulative incidence of hip or knee revision); we did this to minimize the likelihood of missing any relevant studies. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) comparing the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with the competing-risks method for each study and used DerSimonian and Laird random effects models to pool these RRs. Heterogeneity was explored using stratified meta-analyses and

Changes in Classes of Injury-Related Risks and Consequences of Risk-Level Drinking: a Latent Transition Analysis.

PubMed

Cochran, Gerald; Field, Craig; Caetano, Raul

2015-07-01

Risk-level drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related violence are risk factors that result in injuries. The current study sought to identify which subgroups of patients experience the most behavioral change following a brief intervention. A secondary analysis of data from a brief alcohol intervention study was conducted. The sample (N = 664) includes at-risk drinkers who experienced an injury and were admitted for care to a Level 1 trauma center. Injury-related items from the Short Inventory of Problems+6 were used to perform a latent transition analysis to describe class transitions participants experienced following discharge. Four classes emerged for the year before and after the current injury. Most individuals transitioned from higher-risk classes into those with lower risk. Some participants maintained risky profiles, and others increased risks and consequences. Drinking and driving remained a persistent problem among the study participants. Although a large portion of intervention recipients improved risks and consequences of alcohol use following discharge, more intensive intervention services may be needed for a subset of patients who showed little or no improvement.

Critical asset and portfolio risk analysis: an all-hazards framework.

PubMed

Ayyub, Bilal M; McGill, William L; Kaminskiy, Mark

2007-08-01

This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

2011-01-01

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diabetes mellitus and risk of hip fractures: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fan, Y; Wei, F; Lang, Y; Liu, Y

2016-01-01

This meta-analysis revealed that diabetic adults had a twofold greater risk of hip fractures compared with non-diabetic populations, and this association was more pronounced in type 1 diabetes. The relationship between diabetes mellitus and risk of hip fracture yielded conflicting results. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the association between diabetes mellitus and the risk of hip fractures based on observational studies. We conducted a systematic literature search of PubMed and Embase databases through May 2015. We selected cohort and case-control studies providing at least age-adjusted risk ratio (RR) and corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CI) of hip fractures among diabetic and non-diabetic subjects. Moreover, we pooled the female-to-male RR of hip fractures from studies that reported gender-specific risk estimate in a single study. Twenty-one studies involving 82,293 hip fracture events among 6,995,272 participants were identified. Diabetes mellitus was associated with an increased risk of hip fractures (RR 2.07; 95 % CI 1.83-2.33) in a random effects model. Subgroup analysis indicated that excess risk of hip fracture was more pronounced in type 1 diabetes (RR 5.76; 95 % CI 3.66-9.07) than that in type 2 diabetes (RR 1.34; 95 % CI 1.19-1.51). The pooled female-to-male RR of hip fractures was 1.09 (95 % CI 0.93-1.28). Individuals with diabetes mellitus have an excessive risk of hip fractures, and this relationship is more pronounced in type 1 diabetes. The association between diabetes and hip fracture risk is similar in men and women.

Comprehensive risk analysis for structure type selection.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

Optimization of bridge selection and design traditionally has been sought in terms of the finished structure. This study presents a : more comprehensive risk-based analysis that includes user costs and accidents during the construction phase. Costs f...

Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartram, Bart W.; Vaughan, Frank R.; Englehart, Richard W., Dr.

1991-01-01

The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value.

Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

2016-10-01

Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Biomechanical analysis on fracture risk associated with bone deformity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, Nur Amalina Nadiah Mustafa; Som, Mohd Hanafi Mat; Basaruddin, Khairul Salleh; Daud, Ruslizam

2017-09-01

Osteogenesis Imperfecta (OI) is a disease related to bone deformity and is also known as `brittle bone' disease. Currently, medical personnel predict the bone fracture solely based on their experience. In this study, the prediction for risk of fracture was carried out by using finite element analysis on the simulated OI bone of femur. The main objective of this research was to analyze the fracture risk of OI-affected bone with respect to various loadings. A total of 12 models of OI bone were developed by applying four load cases and the angle of deformation for each of the models was calculated. The models were differentiated into four groups, namely standard, light, mild and severe. The results show that only a small amount of load is required to increase the fracture risk of the bone when the model is tested with hopping conditions. The analysis also shows that the torsional load gives a small effect to the increase of the fracture risk of the bone.

Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

Addressing Beacon re-identification attacks: quantification and mitigation of privacy risks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yongan; Carey, Knox; Lloyd, David; Sofia, Heidi; Baker, Dixie; Flicek, Paul; Shringarpure, Suyash; Bustamante, Carlos; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Tang, Haixu; Wang, XiaoFeng; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

2018-01-01

The Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) created the Beacon Project as a means of testing the willingness of data holders to share genetic data in the simplest technical context—a query for the presence of a specified nucleotide at a given position within a chromosome. Each participating site (or “beacon”) is responsible for assuring that genomic data are exposed through the Beacon service only with the permission of the individual to whom the data pertains and in accordance with the GA4GH policy and standards. While recognizing the inference risks associated with large-scale data aggregation, and the fact that some beacons contain sensitive phenotypic associations that increase privacy risk, the GA4GH adjudged the risk of re-identification based on the binary yes/no allele-presence query responses as acceptable. However, recent work demonstrated that, given a beacon with specific characteristics (including relatively small sample size and an adversary who possesses an individual’s whole genome sequence), the individual’s membership in a beacon can be inferred through repeated queries for variants present in the individual’s genome. In this paper, we propose three practical strategies for reducing re-identification risks in beacons. The first two strategies manipulate the beacon such that the presence of rare alleles is obscured; the third strategy budgets the number of accesses per user for each individual genome. Using a beacon containing data from the 1000 Genomes Project, we demonstrate that the proposed strategies can effectively reduce re-identification risk in beacon-like datasets. PMID:28339683

Latent Model Analysis of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors among High-Risk Minority Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.

2007-01-01

Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV risk profile using a latent model analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a risk and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…

Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Schnase, J.L.

2006-01-01

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

Meta-analysis: Risk of dry mouth with second generation antidepressants.

PubMed

Cappetta, Kiley; Beyer, Chad; Johnson, Jessica A; Bloch, Michael H

2018-06-08

The goal of this meta-analysis was to quantify the risk of dry mouth associated with commonly prescribed antidepressant agents and examine the potential implications of medication class, dose, and pharmacodynamics and dose on risk of treatment-induced dry mouth. A PubMed search was conducted to identify double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials examining the efficacy and tolerability of second generation antidepressant medications for adults with depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, and OCD. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to quantify the pooled risk ratio of treatment-emergent dry mouth with second generation antidepressants compared to placebo. Stratified subgroup analysis and meta-regression was utilized to further examine the effects antidepressant agent, class, dosage, indication, and receptor affinity profile on the measured risk of dry mouth. 99 trials involving 20,868 adults. SNRIs (Relative Risk (RR)=2.24, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.95-2.58, z=11.2, p<0.001) were associated with a significantly greater risk of dry mouth (test for subgroup differences χ 2 =7.6, df=1; p=0.006) compared to placebo than SSRIs (RR=1.65, 95% CI: 1.39-1.95, z=5.8, p<0.001). There was a significant difference found in the risk of dry mouth between diagnostic indications within the SNRI class (test for subgroup differences χ 2 =9.63, df=1; p=0.002). Anxiety diagnoses (RR=2.78, 95% CI: 2.29-3.38, z=10.32, p<0.001) were associated with a greater risk of dry mouth compared to depression (RR=1.80, 95% CI: 1.48-2.18, z=5.85, p<0.001). Decreased affinity for Alpha-1 (PE=0.18, 95% CI: 0.07-0.28, z=3.26, p=0.001) and Alpha-2 (PE=0.49, 95% CI: 0.22-0.75, z=3.64, p<0.001) receptors and SERT (PE=0.07, 95% CI: 0.01-0.14, z=2.10, p<0.05) was significantly associated with increased risk of dry mouth. The current meta-analysis suggests that SSRIs, SNRIs, and atypical antidepressants are all associated with varying degrees of increased risk of dry mouth. SNRIs were

Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

PubMed

Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

2004-04-01

Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

2014-10-01

Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

PubMed

Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

2012-05-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Migraine Headache and Ischemic Stroke Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Spector, June T.; Kahn, Susan R.; Jones, Miranda R.; Jayakumar, Monisha; Dalal, Deepan; Nazarian, Saman

2010-01-01

Background Observational studies, including recent large cohort studies which were unavailable for prior meta-analysis, have suggested an association between migraine headache and ischemic stroke. We performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the strength of association between migraine and ischemic stroke risk. Methods We systematically searched electronic databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, through February 2009 for studies of human subjects in the English language. Study selection using a priori selection criteria, data extraction, and assessment of study quality were conducted independently by reviewer pairs using standardized forms. Results Twenty-one (60%) of 35 studies met the selection criteria, for a total of 622,381 participants (13 case-control, 8 cohort studies) included in the meta-analysis. The pooled adjusted odds ratio of ischemic stroke comparing migraineurs to non-migraineurs using a random effects model was 2.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-2.76). The pooled adjusted effect estimates for studies that reported relative risks and hazard ratios, respectively, were 2.41 (95% CI, 1.81-3.20) and 1.52 (95% CI, 0.99-2.35). The overall pooled effect estimate was 2.04 (95% CI, 1.72-2.43). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding lower quality studies. Conclusions Migraine is associated with increased ischemic stroke risk. These findings underscore the importance of identifying high-risk migraineurs with other modifiable stroke risk factors. Future studies of the effect of migraine treatment and modifiable risk factor reduction on stroke risk in migraineurs are warranted. PMID:20493462

State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

PubMed

Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

2012-01-01

Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cybersecurity Roadmap for the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

economic, political, and military world. This unprecedented capability to connect a globalized world carries significant risk and opportunity for cyber ... criminals , spies, and state or non-state adversaries to exploit cybersecurity weaknesses for their own gain.

Global Persistent Attack: A Systems Architecture, Process Modeling, and Risk Analysis Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

develop an analysis process for quantifying risk associated with the limitations presented by a fiscally constrained environment. The second step...previous independent analysis of each force structure provided information for quantifying risk associated with the given force presentations, the

76 FR 76103 - Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-06

... Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the... portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, system of records contain criminal...) * * * (2) * * * Risk Analysis and Management Records, STATE-78. * * * * * (b) * * * (1) * * * Risk Analysis...

LINEBACkER: Bio-inspired Data Reduction Toward Real Time Network Traffic Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teuton, Jeremy R.; Peterson, Elena S.; Nordwall, Douglas J.

Abstract—One essential component of resilient cyber applications is the ability to detect adversaries and protect systems with the same flexibility adversaries will use to achieve their goals. Current detection techniques do not enable this degree of flexibility because most existing applications are built using exact or regular-expression matching to libraries of rule sets. Further, network traffic defies traditional cyber security approaches that focus on limiting access based on the use of passwords and examination of lists of installed or downloaded programs. These approaches do not readily apply to network traffic occurring beyond the access control point, and when the datamore » in question are combined control and payload data of ever increasing speed and volume. Manual analysis of network traffic is not normally possible because of the magnitude of the data that is being exchanged and the length of time that this analysis takes. At the same time, using an exact matching scheme to identify malicious traffic in real time often fails because the lists against which such searches must operate grow too large. In this work, we introduce an alternative method for cyber network detection based on similarity-measuring algorithms for gene sequence analysis. These methods are ideal because they were designed to identify similar but nonidentical sequences. We demonstrate that our method is generally applicable to the problem of network traffic analysis by illustrating its use in two different areas both based on different attributes of network traffic. Our approach provides a logical framework for organizing large collections of network data, prioritizing traffic of interest to human analysts, and makes it possible to discover traffic signatures without the bias introduced by expert-directed signature generation. Pattern recognition on reduced representations of network traffic offers a fast, efficient, and more robust way to detect anomalies.« less

Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

Application of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework on risk management of sea ports and offshore terminals.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Kambiz; Ren, Jun; Roberts, Charles; Wang, Jin

2011-08-30

Ports and offshore terminals are critical infrastructure resources and play key roles in the transportation of goods and people. With more than 80 percent of international trade by volume being carried out by sea, ports and offshore terminals are vital for seaborne trade and international commerce. Furthermore in today's uncertain and complex environment there is a need to analyse the participated risk factors in order to prioritise protective measures in these critically logistics infrastructures. As a result of this study is carried out to support the risk assessment phase of the proposed Risk Management (RM) framework used for the purpose of sea ports and offshore terminals operations and management (PTOM). This has been fulfilled by integration of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework into the risk assessment phase as a backbone of the phase. For this reason Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) are used to analyse the risk factors associated within the PTOM. This process will eventually help the port professionals and port risk managers to investigate the identified risk factors more in detail. In order to deal with vagueness of the data Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and possibility approach are used to overcome the disadvantages of the conventional probability based approaches. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

2017-04-01

Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

PubMed

Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

2015-09-01

Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

PubMed

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality

Evaluation of rail test frequencies using risk analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-03

Several industries now use risk analysis to develop : inspection programs to ensure acceptable mechanical integrity : and reliability. These industries include nuclear and electric : power generation, oil refining, gas processing, onshore and : offsh...

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA

PubMed Central

Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-01-01

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants. PMID:28665325

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA.

PubMed

Fuentes-Bargues, José Luis; González-Cruz, Mª Carmen; González-Gaya, Cristina; Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-06-30

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants.

Spatiotemporal analysis of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Wei; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Dong; Li, Tian-xiao; Cheng, Kun; Cui, Song

2017-06-01

Droughts are natural disasters that pose significant threats to agricultural production as well as living conditions, and a spatial-temporal difference analysis of agricultural drought risk can help determine the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the drought risk within a region. Moreover, this type of analysis can provide a theoretical basis for the identification, prevention, and mitigation of drought disasters. In this study, the overall dispersion and local aggregation of projection points were based on research by Friedman and Tukey (IEEE Trans on Computer 23:881-890, 1974). In this work, high-dimensional samples were clustered by cluster analysis. The clustering results were represented by the clustering matrix, which determined the local density in the projection index. This method avoids the problem of determining a cutoff radius. An improved projection pursuit model is proposed that combines cluster analysis and the projection pursuit model, which offer advantages for classification and assessment, respectively. The improved model was applied to analyze the agricultural drought risk of 13 cities in Heilongjiang Province over 6 years (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014). The risk of an agricultural drought disaster was characterized by 14 indicators and the following four aspects: hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and resistance capacity. The spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed. The spatial distribution results indicated that Suihua, Qigihar, Daqing, Harbin, and Jiamusi are located in high-risk areas, Daxing'anling and Yichun are located in low-risk areas, and the differences among the regions were primarily caused by the aspects exposure and resistance capacity. The temporal variation results indicated that the risk of agricultural drought in most areas presented an initially increasing and then decreasing trend. A higher value for the exposure

Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

PubMed

Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

2005-08-31

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

2017-12-01

This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

Night Shift Work and Risk of Depression: Meta-analysis of Observational Studies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This study aimed to assess whether night shift work is associated with the risk of depression by using a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in August, 2016 to locate eligible studies and investigated the association between night shift work and the risk of depression, reporting outcome measures with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the meta-analysis of a total of 11 observational studies with 9 cross-sectional study, 1 longitudinal study, and 1 cohort study, night shift work was significantly associated with an increased risk of depression (OR/RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.24–1.64; I2 = 78.0%). Also, subgroup meta-analyses by gender, night shift work duration, type of occupation, continent, and type of publication showed that night shift work was consistently associated with the increased risk of depression. The current meta-analysis suggests that night shift work is associated with the increased risk of depression. However, further large prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm this association. PMID:28581264

Precursor Analysis for Flight- and Ground-Based Anomaly Risk Significance Determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groen, Frank

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the precursor analysis for flight and ground based anomaly risk significance. It includes information on accident precursor analysis, real models vs. models, and probabilistic analysis.

Classifying Nanomaterial Risks Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linkov, I.; Steevens, J.; Chappell, M.; Tervonen, T.; Figueira, J. R.; Merad, M.

There is rapidly growing interest by regulatory agencies and stakeholders in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of the product life cycle (e.g., development, production, use and disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological material may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material because of the variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as promote the safe use/handling of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. The stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial's physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgement. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.1,2

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

Meta-analysis: eating frequency and risk of colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Liu, Yanqiong; Tang, Weizhong; Zhai, Limin; Yang, Shi; Wu, Junrong; Xie, Li; Wang, Jian; Deng, Yan; Qin, Xue; Li, Shan

2014-04-01

Eating frequency has been implicated in the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in several epidemiological studies with contradictory and inconclusive findings. We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate their relationship. The pooled relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated to estimate the effects. A total of 15 eligible studies with 141,431 subjects and 11,248 cases were retrieved after a comprehensive search of the PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science databases up to October 2013. The overall meta-analysis revealed no strong significant association between eating frequency and risk of CRC in different eating occasion categories (1 meal/day): RR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.94-1.09, P = 0.709; 3 vs. <3 daily meals: RR = 1.17, 95% CI 0.93-1.46; 4 vs. <3 daily meals: RR = 1.13, 95% CI 0.92-1.38; ≥ 5 vs. <3 daily meals: RR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.61-1.47; 4 vs. ≤ 3 daily meals: RR = 1.18, 95% CI 0.92-1.51; and 1-2 vs. 3 or 4 daily meals: RR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.63-1.06). However, modest evidence of an increased risk of CRC in case-control studies (RR = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.11-1.52) and ≥ 5 vs. ≤ 3 meals group (RR = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.11-1.52) was observed. Our meta-analysis results do not support the hypothesis that eating frequency strongly reduced or increased the risk of CRC. Clinical randomized trials are required to evaluate this relationship further.

Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Xu, Jiuhong; Song, Chunli; Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

2017-01-10

To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture.

TNF -308 G/A Polymorphism and Risk of Acne Vulgaris: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Yang, Jian-Kang; Wu, Wen-Juan; Qi, Jue; He, Li; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2014-01-01

Background The -308 G/A polymorphism in the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) gene has been implicated in the risk of acne vulgaris, but the results are inconclusive. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the overall association between the -308 G/A polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Methods We searched in Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science and CNKI for studies evaluating the association between the -308 G/A gene polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Data were extracted and statistical analysis was performed using STATA 12.0 software. Results A total of five publications involving 1553 subjects (728 acne vulgaris cases and 825 controls) were included in this meta-analysis. Combined analysis revealed a significant association between this polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk under recessive model (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.37–5.44, p = 0.004 for AA vs. AG + GG). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed that the acne vulgaris risk associated with the -308 G/A gene polymorphism was significantly elevated among Caucasians under recessive model (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.13–4.86, p = 0.023). Conclusion This meta-analysis suggests that the -308 G/A polymorphism in the TNF gene contributes to acne vulgaris risk, especially in Caucasian populations. Further studies among different ethnicity populations are needed to validate these findings. PMID:24498378

TNF-308 G/A polymorphism and risk of acne vulgaris: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Jian-Kang; Wu, Wen-Juan; Qi, Jue; He, Li; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2014-01-01

The -308 G/A polymorphism in the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) gene has been implicated in the risk of acne vulgaris, but the results are inconclusive. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the overall association between the -308 G/A polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. We searched in Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science and CNKI for studies evaluating the association between the -308 G/A gene polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk. Data were extracted and statistical analysis was performed using STATA 12.0 software. A total of five publications involving 1553 subjects (728 acne vulgaris cases and 825 controls) were included in this meta-analysis. Combined analysis revealed a significant association between this polymorphism and acne vulgaris risk under recessive model (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.37-5.44, p = 0.004 for AA vs. AG + GG). Subgroup analysis by ethnicity showed that the acne vulgaris risk associated with the -308 G/A gene polymorphism was significantly elevated among Caucasians under recessive model (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.13-4.86, p = 0.023). This meta-analysis suggests that the -308 G/A polymorphism in the TNF gene contributes to acne vulgaris risk, especially in Caucasian populations. Further studies among different ethnicity populations are needed to validate these findings.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENTS FOR MUNICIPAL WASTE COMBUSTORS

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative health risk assessments have been performed for a number of proposed municipal waste combustor (MWC) facilities over the past several years. his article presents the results of a comparative analysis of a total of 21 risk assessments, focusing on seven of the most co...

Analysis of the individual risk of altitude decompression sickness under repeated exposures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, K. Vasantha; Horrigan, David J.; Waligora, James M.; Gilbert, John H.

1991-01-01

In a case-control study, researchers examined the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in individual subjects with higher number of exposures. Of the 126 subjects, 42 showed one or more episodes of DCS. Examination of the exposure-DCS relationship by odds ratio showed a linear relationship. Stratification analysis showed that sex, tissue ratio, and the presence of Doppler microbubbles were cofounders of this risk. A higher number of exposures increased the risk of DCS in this analysis.

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

PubMed Central

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2016-01-01

In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

1995-12-31

It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements inmore » health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada`s concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health.« less

An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

PubMed

Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

2011-07-01

In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation ofmore » the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.« less

Meta-analysis on shift work and risks of specific obesity types.

PubMed

Sun, M; Feng, W; Wang, F; Li, P; Li, Z; Li, M; Tse, G; Vlaanderen, J; Vermeulen, R; Tse, L A

2018-01-01

This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the associations between shift work patterns and risks of specific types of obesity. PubMed was searched until March 2017 for observational studies that examined the relationships between shift work patterns and obesity. Odds ratio for obesity was extracted using a fixed-effects or random-effects model. Subgroup meta-analyses were carried out for study design, specific obesity types and characteristics of shift work pattern. A total of 28 studies were included in this meta-analysis. The overall odds ratio of night shift work was 1.23 (95% confidence interval = 1.17-1.29) for risk of obesity/overweight. Cross-sectional studies showed a higher risk of 1.26 than those with the cohort design (risk ratio = 1.10). Shift workers had a higher frequency of developing abdominal obesity (odds ratio = 1.35) than other obesity types. Permanent night workers demonstrated a 29% higher risk than rotating shift workers (odds ratio 1.43 vs. 1.14). This meta-analysis confirmed the risks of night shift work for the development of overweight and obesity with a potential gradient association suggested, especially for abdominal obesity. Modification of working schedules is recommended, particularly for prolonged permanent night work. More accurate and detailed measurements on shift work patterns should be conducted in future research. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

The control of chemical weapons: A strategic analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stern, J.E.

This thesis develops an analytical framework for optimal design of a ban on chemical weapons (CW). The thesis addresses two principal questions: first, could it be in the interest of individual states to adopt a CW ban, even if compliance by adversaries cannot be presupposed Second, how can designers of the treaty maximize incentives to accede and comply, but simultaneously minimize the threat to national sovereignty, including the risk of giving up a deterrent stockpile, and the risk that sensitive information would be revealed during inspections Three problems can plague any disarmament agreement. The first danger is that the agreementmore » will be so minimalist that although all countries may adhere to it, it will have little effect on international behavior. The second danger is that the treaty will have such a weak enforcement mechanism that although nations may accede, they may not comply under conditions of international stress. The third danger is that the terms of the arrangement will be so onerous that few nations will agree to adopt it in the first place. This thesis develops a framework for thinking about how to strike the proper balance between these competing concerns. A salient characteristic of CW is the relative ease with which they can be produced in secret. The dissertation analyzes the effectiveness of inspection procedures of varying intrusiveness, and investigates the risks to sensitive government and industrial facilities. The thesis concludes with an analysis of the extent to which a ban on a single weapon could enhance the stability of the [open quotes]balance of terror.[close quotes] The author makes specific policy recommendations about how to set the optimal level of enforcement so that the ban is likely to succeed, and thus become more than a symbolic gesture.« less

The control of chemical weapons: A strategic analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stern, J.E.

This thesis develops an analytical framework for optimal design of a ban on chemical weapons (CW). The thesis addresses two principal questions: first, could it be in the interest of individual states to adopt a CW ban, even if compliance by adversaries cannot be presupposed? Second, how compliance by adverse can designers of the treaty maximize incentives to accede and to national comply, but simultaneously minimize the threat sovereignty, including the risk of giving up a deterrent stockpile, and the risk that sensitive information would be revealed during inspections? Three problems can plague any disarmament agreement will be so minimalistmore » that although all countries may adhere to it, it will have little effect on international behavior. The second danger is that weak enforcement mechanism that the treaty will have such a although nations may accede, they may not comply under conditions of international stress. The third danger is that the terms of the arrangement will be so onerous that few nations will agree to adopt it in the first place. This thesis develops a framework for thinking about how to strike the proper balance between these competing concerns. A salient characteristic of CW is the relative ease with which they can be produced in secret. The dissertation analyzes the effectiveness of inspection procedures of varying intrusiveness, and investigates the risks to sensitive government and industrial facilities. The thesis concludes with an analysis of the extent to which a ban on a single weapon could enhance the stability of the ``balance of terror.`` The author makes specific policy recommendations about how to set the optimal level of enforcement so that the ban is likely to succeed, and thus become more than a symbolic gesture.« less

A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

2017-08-01

Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Addressing Beacon re-identification attacks: quantification and mitigation of privacy risks.

PubMed

Raisaro, Jean Louis; Tramèr, Florian; Ji, Zhanglong; Bu, Diyue; Zhao, Yongan; Carey, Knox; Lloyd, David; Sofia, Heidi; Baker, Dixie; Flicek, Paul; Shringarpure, Suyash; Bustamante, Carlos; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Tang, Haixu; Wang, XiaoFeng; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

2017-07-01

The Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) created the Beacon Project as a means of testing the willingness of data holders to share genetic data in the simplest technical context-a query for the presence of a specified nucleotide at a given position within a chromosome. Each participating site (or "beacon") is responsible for assuring that genomic data are exposed through the Beacon service only with the permission of the individual to whom the data pertains and in accordance with the GA4GH policy and standards.While recognizing the inference risks associated with large-scale data aggregation, and the fact that some beacons contain sensitive phenotypic associations that increase privacy risk, the GA4GH adjudged the risk of re-identification based on the binary yes/no allele-presence query responses as acceptable. However, recent work demonstrated that, given a beacon with specific characteristics (including relatively small sample size and an adversary who possesses an individual's whole genome sequence), the individual's membership in a beacon can be inferred through repeated queries for variants present in the individual's genome.In this paper, we propose three practical strategies for reducing re-identification risks in beacons. The first two strategies manipulate the beacon such that the presence of rare alleles is obscured; the third strategy budgets the number of accesses per user for each individual genome. Using a beacon containing data from the 1000 Genomes Project, we demonstrate that the proposed strategies can effectively reduce re-identification risk in beacon-like datasets. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

Bacterial vaginosis in pregnancy and the risk of prematurity: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Flynn, C A; Helwig, A L; Meurer, L N

1999-11-01

We conducted this meta-analysis to determine the magnitude of risk conferred by bacterial vaginosis during pregnancy on preterm delivery. We selected articles from a combination of the results of a MEDLINE search (1966-1996), a manual search of bibliographies, and contact with leading researchers. We included case control and cohort studies evaluating the risk of preterm delivery, low birth weight, preterm premature rupture of membranes, or preterm labor for pregnant women who had bacterial vaginosis and those who did not. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS. Two investigators independently conducted literature searches, applied inclusion criteria, performed data extraction, and critically appraised included studies. Summary estimates of risk were calculated as odds ratios (ORs) using the fixed and random effects models. We included 19 studies in the final analysis. Bacterial vaginosis during pregnancy was associated with a statistically significant increased risk for all outcomes evaluated. In the subanalyses for preterm delivery, bacterial vaginosis remained a significant risk factor. Pooling adjusted ORs yielded a 60% increased risk of preterm delivery given the presence of bacterial vaginosis. Bacterial vaginosis is an important risk factor for prematurity and pregnancy morbidity. Further studies will help clarify the benefits of treating bacterial vaginosis and the potential role of screening during pregnancy.

Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

2016-04-01

In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

Dietary zinc and iron intake and risk of depression: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Zongyao; Li, Bingrong; Song, Xingxing; Zhang, Dongfeng

2017-05-01

The associations between dietary zinc and iron intake and risk of depression remain controversial. Thus, we carried out a meta-analysis to evaluate these associations. A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Wanfang databases for relevant studies up to January 2017. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random effects model. A total of 9 studies for dietary zinc intake and 3 studies for dietary iron intake were finally included in present meta-analysis. The pooled RRs with 95% CIs of depression for the highest versus lowest dietary zinc and iron intake were 0.67 (95% CI: 0.58-0.76) and 0.57 (95% CI: 0.34-0.95), respectively. In subgroup analysis by study design, the inverse association between dietary zinc intake and risk of depression remained significant in the cohort studies and cross-sectional studies. The pooled RRs (95% CIs) for depression did not substantially change in the influence analysis and subgroup analysis by adjustment for body mass index (BMI). The present meta-analysis indicates inverse associations between dietary zinc and iron intake and risk of depression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

American Airlines Propeller STOL Transport Economic Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ransone, B.

1972-01-01

A Monte Carlo risk analysis on the economics of STOL transports in air passenger traffic established the probability of making the expected internal rate of financial return, or better, in a hypothetical regular Washington/New York intercity operation.

Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies

PubMed Central

Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

2017-01-01

To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture. PMID:27911854

Risk factors for chronic and recurrent otitis media-a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Yan; Xu, Min; Zhang, Jin; Zeng, Lingxia; Wang, Yanfei; Zheng, Qing Yin

2014-01-01

Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; P<0.00001). Snoring appeared to be a significant risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.78-2.16; P<0.00001). A patient history of acute otitis media (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.

Risk Factors for Chronic and Recurrent Otitis Media–A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yan; Xu, Min; Zhang, Jin; Zeng, Lingxia; Wang, Yanfei; Zheng, Qing Yin

2014-01-01

Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13–1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13–13.89; P<0.00001). Snoring appeared to be a significant risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.78–2.16; P<0.00001). A patient history of acute otitis media (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06–116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02–1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11–13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria. PMID:24466073

Night Shift Work and Risk of Depression: Meta-analysis of Observational Studies.

PubMed

Lee, Aeyoung; Myung, Seung Kwon; Cho, Jung Jin; Jung, Yu Jin; Yoon, Jong Lull; Kim, Mee Young

2017-07-01

This study aimed to assess whether night shift work is associated with the risk of depression by using a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in August, 2016 to locate eligible studies and investigated the association between night shift work and the risk of depression, reporting outcome measures with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the meta-analysis of a total of 11 observational studies with 9 cross-sectional study, 1 longitudinal study, and 1 cohort study, night shift work was significantly associated with an increased risk of depression (OR/RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.24-1.64; I² = 78.0%). Also, subgroup meta-analyses by gender, night shift work duration, type of occupation, continent, and type of publication showed that night shift work was consistently associated with the increased risk of depression. The current meta-analysis suggests that night shift work is associated with the increased risk of depression. However, further large prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm this association. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Oil-spill risk analysis: Cook inlet outer continental shelf lease sale 149. Volume 1. The analysis. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.; Anderson, C.M.

1994-08-01

This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis (OSRA) conducted for the proposed lower Cook Inlet Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Lease Sale 149. The objective of this analysis was to estimate relative oil-spill risks associated with oil and gas production from the leasing alternatives proposed for the lease sale. The Minerals Management Service (MMS) will consider the analysis in the environmental impact statement (EIS) prepared for the lease sale. The analysis for proposed OCS Lease Sale 149 was conducted in three parts corresponding to different aspects of the overall problem. The first part dealt with the probability of oil-spillmore » occurrence. The second dealt with trajectories of oil spills from potential spill sites to various environmental resources or land segments. The third part combined the results of the first two parts to give estimates of the overall oil-spill risk if there is oil production as a result of the lease sale. To aid the analysis, conditional risk contour maps of seasonal conditional probabilities of spill contact were generated for each environmental resource or land segment in the study area (see vol. 2).« less

Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

2016-01-01

Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09–1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13–1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias—cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40–5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01–1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

Calcium Intake and the Risk of Ovarian Cancer: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Song, Xingxing; Li, Zongyao; Ji, Xinqiang; Zhang, Dongfeng

2017-06-30

Several epidemiological studies have evaluated the association between calcium intake and the risk of ovarian cancer. However, the results of these studies remain controversial. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis to explore the association between calcium intake and the risk of ovarian cancer. Pubmed, Embase and Web of Science were searched for eligible publications up to April 2017. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the random-effects model. Small-study effect was estimated using Egger's test and the funnel plot. Among 15 epidemiological studies involving 493,415 participants and 7453 cases eligible for this meta-analysis, 13 studies were about dietary calcium intake, 4 studies about dairy calcium intake and 7 studies about dietary plus supplemental calcium intake. When comparing the highest with the lowest intake, the pooled RRs of ovarian cancer were 0.80 (95% CI 0.72-0.89) for dietary calcium, 0.80 (95% CI 0.66-0.98) for dairy calcium and 0.90 (95% CI 0.65-1.24) for dietary plus supplemental calcium, respectively. Dietary calcium was significantly associated with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer among cohort studies (RR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.74-0.99) and among case-control studies ( RR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.64-0.89). In subgroup analysis by ovarian cancer subtypes, we found a statistically significant association between the dietary calcium ( RR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.69-0.88) and the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). This meta-analysis indicated that increased calcium intake might be inversely associated with the risk of ovarian cancer; this still needs to be confirmed by larger prospective cohort studies.

Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.

PubMed

Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu

2016-01-01

Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.

Risk and value analysis of SETI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Billingham, J.

1990-01-01

This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

Risk and value analysis of SETI.

PubMed

Billingham, J

1990-01-01

This paper attempts to apply a traditional risk and value analysis to the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence--SETI. In view of the difficulties of assessing the probability of success, a comparison is made between SETI and a previous search for extraterrestrial life, the biological component of Project Viking. Our application of simple Utility Theory, given some reasonable assumptions, suggests that SETI is at least as worthwhile as the biological experiment on Viking.

Risk Factors of Mortality from All Asbestos-Related Diseases: A Competing Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Abós-Herràndiz, Rafael; Rodriguez-Blanco, Teresa; Garcia-Allas, Isabel; Rosell-Murphy, Isabel-Magdalena; Albertí-Casas, Constança; Tarrés, Josep; Krier-Günther, Illona; Martinez-Artés, Xavier; Orriols, Ramon; Grimau-Malet, Isidre; Canela-Soler, Jaume

2017-01-01

The mortality from all malignant and nonmalignant asbestos-related diseases remains unknown. The authors assessed the incidence and risk factors for all asbestos-related deaths. The sample included 544 patients from an asbestos-exposed community in the area of Barcelona (Spain), between Jan 1, 1970, and Dec 31, 2006. Competing risk regression through a subdistribution hazard analysis was used to estimate risk factors for the outcomes. Asbestos-related deaths were observed in 167 (30.7%) patients and 57.5% of these deaths were caused by some type of mesothelioma. The incidence rate after diagnosis was 3,600 per 100,000 person-years. In 7.5% of patients death was non-asbestos-related, while pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma were identified in 87 (16.0%) and 18 (3.3%) patients, respectively. Age, sex, household exposure, cumulative nonmalignant asbestos-related disease, and single malignant pathology were identified as risk factors for asbestos-related death. These findings suggest the need to develop a preventive approach to the community and to improve the clinical follow-up process of these patients.

Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

PubMed

Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

2010-12-01

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Value-at-Risk analysis using ARMAX GARCHX approach for estimating risk of banking subsector stock return’s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewi Ratih, Iis; Sutijo Supri Ulama, Brodjol; Prastuti, Mike

2018-03-01

Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the statistical methods used to measure market risk by estimating the worst losses in a given time period and level of confidence. The accuracy of this measuring tool is very important in determining the amount of capital that must be provided by the company to cope with possible losses. Because there is a greater losses to be faced with a certain degree of probability by the greater risk. Based on this, VaR calculation analysis is of particular concern to researchers and practitioners of the stock market to be developed, thus getting more accurate measurement estimates. In this research, risk analysis of stocks in four banking sub-sector, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia will be done. Stock returns are expected to be influenced by exogenous variables, namely ICI and exchange rate. Therefore, in this research, stock risk estimation are done by using VaR ARMAX-GARCHX method. Calculating the VaR value with the ARMAX-GARCHX approach using window 500 gives more accurate results. Overall, Bank Central Asia is the only bank had the estimated maximum loss in the 5% quantile.

Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yuan

2018-04-01

GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

Vitamin E and risk of age-related cataract: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Yufei; Jiang, Wenjie; Xie, Zhutian; Wu, Wenlong; Zhang, Dongfeng

2015-10-01

We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between vitamin E and age-related cataract (ARC). The fixed- or random-effect model was selected based on heterogeneity. Meta-regression was used to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated using Begg's test. The dose-response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model. Relevant studies were identified by a search of PubMed and the Cochrane Library to May 2014, without language restrictions. Studies involved samples of people of all ages. Dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high serum tocopherol levels were significantly associated with decreased risk of ARC, the pooled relative risk was 0·73 (95% CI 0·58, 0·92), 0·86 (95% CI 0·75, 0·99) and 0·77 (95% CI 0·66, 0·91), respectively. Supplemental vitamin E intake was non-significantly associated with ARC risk (relative risk=0·92; 95% CI 0·78, 1·07). The findings from dose-response analysis showed evidence of a non-linear association between dietary vitamin E intake and ARC. The risk of ARC decreased with dietary vitamin E intake from 7 mg/d (relative risk=0·94; 95% CI 0·90, 0·97). The findings of the meta-analysis indicated that dietary vitamin E intake, dietary and supplemental vitamin E intake, and high level of serum tocopherol might be significantly associated with reduced ARC risk.

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene polymorphism and risk of chronic myelogenous leukemia: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Chen; Yichao, Jin; Jiaxin, Lin; Yueting, Zhang; Qin, Lu; Tonghua, Yang

2015-01-01

Reported evidence supports a role for methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) in the risk of chronic myelogenous leykemia (CML). However, these reports arrived at non-conclusive and even conflicting results regarding the association between two common MTHFR polymorphisms (C677T and A1298C) and CML risk. Thus, a meta-analysis was carried out to clarify a more precise association between these two polymorphisms and the CML risk by updating the available publications. Pooled odds ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and stratification analysis were performed to estimate the relationship between MTHFR polymorphisms and the risk of CML under different genetic comparison models. Data from the meta-analysis showed no significant association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and CML risk. However, significant associations were found between MTHFR A1298C variants and CML risk under homozygous comparison model (CC vs AA, OR=1.62, 95% CI=1.11-2.36, p=0.01) and dominant comparison model (CC+AC vs AA, OR=1.68, 95% CI=1.17-2.43, p=0.005) in overall population; especially more obvious impacts were noticed for Asian populations in subgroup analysis for homozygous model (CC vs AA, OR=2.00, 95% CI=1.25-3.21, p=0.004) and dominant model (CC+AC vs AA, OR=2.49, 95% CI=1.42-4.36, p=0.001), but this did not apply in Caucasian populations. The results of this meta-analysis suggested no significant association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and CML risk, while an increased CML risk was noticed for 1298C variant carriers, especially in Asian populations but not in Caucasian populations, which suggested ethnicity differences between MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms and risk of CML.

Lung Cancer Risk in Painters: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Guha, Neela; Merletti, Franco; Steenland, Nelson Kyle; Altieri, Andrea; Cogliano, Vincent; Straif, Kurt

2010-01-01

Objective We conducted a meta-analysis to quantitatively compare the association between occupation as a painter and the incidence or mortality from lung cancer. Data sources PubMed and the reference lists of pertinent publications were searched and reviewed. For the meta-analysis, we used data from 47 independent cohort, record linkage, and case–control studies (from a total of 74 reports), including > 11,000 incident cases or deaths from lung cancer among painters. Data extraction Three authors independently abstracted data and assessed study quality. Data synthesis The summary relative risk (meta-RR, random effects) for lung cancer in painters was 1.35 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.29–1.41; 47 studies] and 1.35 (95% CI, 1.21–1.51; 27 studies) after controlling for smoking. The relative risk was higher in never-smokers (meta-RR = 2.00; 95% CI, 1.09–3.67; 3 studies) and persisted when restricted to studies that adjusted for other occupational exposures (meta-RR = 1.57; 95% CI, 1.21–2.04; 5 studies). The results remained robust when stratified by study design, sex, and study location and are therefore unlikely due to chance or bias. Furthermore, exposure–response analyses suggested that the risk increased with duration of employment. Conclusion These results support the conclusion that occupational exposures in painters are causally associated with the risk of lung cancer. PMID:20064777

Evaluating Moving Target Defense with PLADD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Stephen T.; Outkin, Alexander V.; Gearhart, Jared Lee

This project evaluates the effectiveness of moving target defense (MTD) techniques using a new game we have designed, called PLADD, inspired by the game FlipIt [28]. PLADD extends FlipIt by incorporating what we believe are key MTD concepts. We have analyzed PLADD and proven the existence of a defender strategy that pushes a rational attacker out of the game, demonstrated how limited the strategies available to an attacker are in PLADD, and derived analytic expressions for the expected utility of the game’s players in multiple game variants. We have created an algorithm for finding a defender’s optimal PLADD strategy. Wemore » show that in the special case of achieving deterrence in PLADD, MTD is not always cost effective and that its optimal deployment may shift abruptly from not using MTD at all to using it as aggressively as possible. We believe our effort provides basic, fundamental insights into the use of MTD, but conclude that a truly practical analysis requires model selection and calibration based on real scenarios and empirical data. We propose several avenues for further inquiry, including (1) agents with adaptive capabilities more reflective of real world adversaries, (2) the presence of multiple, heterogeneous adversaries, (3) computational game theory-based approaches such as coevolution to allow scaling to the real world beyond the limitations of analytical analysis and classical game theory, (4) mapping the game to real-world scenarios, (5) taking player risk into account when designing a strategy (in addition to expected payoff), (6) improving our understanding of the dynamic nature of MTD-inspired games by using a martingale representation, defensive forecasting, and techniques from signal processing, and (7) using adversarial games to develop inherently resilient cyber systems.« less

The risk factors for avian influenza on poultry farms: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Youming; Li, Peng; Wu, Yangli; Sun, Xiangdong; Yu, Kangzhen; Yu, Chuanhua; Qin, Aijian

2014-11-01

Avian influenza is a severe threat both to humans and poultry, but so far, no systematic review on the identification and evaluation of the risk factors of avian influenza infection has been published. The objective of this meta-analysis is to provide evidence for decision-making and further research on AI prevention through identifying the risk factors associated with AI infection on poultry farms. The results from 15 selected studies on risk factors for AI infections on poultry farms were analyzed quantitatively by meta-analysis. Open water source (OR=2.89), infections on nearby farms (OR=4.54), other livestock (OR=1.90) and disinfection of farm (OR=0.54) have significant association with AI infection on poultry farms. The subgroup analysis results indicate that there exist different risk factors for AI infections in different types of farms. The main risk factors for AI infection in poultry farms are environmental conditions (open water source, infections on nearby farms), keeping other livestock on the same farm and no disinfection of the farm. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Categorizing accident sequences in the external radiotherapy for risk analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Purpose This study identifies accident sequences from the past accidents in order to help the risk analysis application to the external radiotherapy. Materials and Methods This study reviews 59 accidental cases in two retrospective safety analyses that have collected the incidents in the external radiotherapy extensively. Two accident analysis reports that accumulated past incidents are investigated to identify accident sequences including initiating events, failure of safety measures, and consequences. This study classifies the accidents by the treatments stages and sources of errors for initiating events, types of failures in the safety measures, and types of undesirable consequences and the number of affected patients. Then, the accident sequences are grouped into several categories on the basis of similarity of progression. As a result, these cases can be categorized into 14 groups of accident sequence. Results The result indicates that risk analysis needs to pay attention to not only the planning stage, but also the calibration stage that is committed prior to the main treatment process. It also shows that human error is the largest contributor to initiating events as well as to the failure of safety measures. This study also illustrates an event tree analysis for an accident sequence initiated in the calibration. Conclusion This study is expected to provide sights into the accident sequences for the prospective risk analysis through the review of experiences. PMID:23865005

Segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Voss, A; Fischer, C; Schroeder, R; Figulla, H R; Goernig, M

2010-01-01

The prognostic value of heart rate variability in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is limited and does not contribute to risk stratification although the dynamics of ventricular repolarization differs considerably between DCM patients and healthy subjects. Neither linear nor nonlinear methods of heart rate variability analysis could discriminate between patients at high and low risk for sudden cardiac death. The aim of this study was to analyze the suitability of the new developed segmented Poincaré plot analysis (SPPA) to enhance risk stratification in DCM. In contrast to the usual applied Poincaré plot analysis the SPPA retains nonlinear features from investigated beat-to-beat interval time series. Main features of SPPA are the rotation of cloud of points and their succeeded variability depended segmentation. Significant row and column probabilities were calculated from the segments and led to discrimination (up to p<0.005) between low and high risk in DCM patients. For the first time an index from Poincaré plot analysis of heart rate variability was able to contribute to risk stratification in patients suffering from DCM.

Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.

PubMed

Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R

2005-11-15

A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes.

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2006-01-01

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials: Report from an International Workshop on the Role of Alternative Testing Strategies for Advancement: Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shatkin, J. A.; Ong, Kimberly J.; Beaudrie, Christian

The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATSmore » use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article.« less

RAMPART (TM): Risk Assessment Method-Property Analysis and Ranking Tool v.4.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carson, Susan D.; Hunter, Regina L.; Link, Madison D.

RAMPART{trademark}, Risk Assessment Method-property Analysis and Ranking Tool, is a new type of computer software package for the assessment of risk to buildings. RAMPART{trademark} has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA). RAMPART {trademark} has been designed and developed to be a risk-based decision support tool that requires no risk analysis expertise on the part of the user. The RAMPART{trademark} user interface elicits information from the user about the building. The RAMPART{trademark} expert system is a set of rules that embodies GSA corporate knowledge and SNL's risk assessment experience. The RAMPART{trademark} database containsmore » both data entered by the user during a building analysis session and large sets of natural hazard and crime data. RAMPART{trademark} algorithms use these data to assess the risk associated with a given building in the face of certain hazards. Risks arising from five natural hazards (earthquake, hurricane, winter storm, tornado and flood); crime (inside and outside the building); fire and terrorism are calculated. These hazards may cause losses of various kinds. RAMPART{trademark} considers death, injury, loss of mission, loss of property, loss of contents, loss of building use, and first-responder loss. The results of each analysis are presented graphically on the screen and in a written report.« less

Fried food and prostate cancer risk: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lippi, Giuseppe; Mattiuzzi, Camilla

2015-01-01

We performed systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies that investigated the potential association between fried food consumption and prostate cancer risk. Four case-control studies were finally selected for this systematic literature review, totaling 2579 cancer patients and 2277 matched controls. In two of these studies, the larger intake of fried food was associated with a 1.3- to 2.3-fold increased risk of prostate cancer, no significant association was found in another, whereas an inverse relationship was observed in the remaining. The meta-analysis of published data showed that larger intake of fried food was associated with a 35% (95% CI 17-57%) increased risk of prostate cancer. The results of this systematic literature review support the notion that larger intake of fried foods may have a role in increasing the risk of prostate cancer.

Breast Cancer Risk From Modifiable and Non-Modifiable Risk Factors among Women in Southeast Asia: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed

Nindrea, Ricvan Dana; Aryandono, Teguh; Lazuardi, Lutfan

2017-12-28

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine breast cancer risk from modifiable and non-modifiable factors among women in Southeast Asia. Methods: This meta-analysis was performed on research articles on breast cancer risk factors in PubMed, ProQuest and EBSCO databases published between 1997 and October 2017. Pooled odds ratios (OR) are calculated using fixed and random-effect models. Data were processed using Review Manager 5.3 (RevMan 5.3). Results: From a total of 1,211 articles, 15 studies (1 cohort and 14 case control studies) met the criteria for systematic review. Meta-analysis results showed that of the known modifiable risk factors for breast cancer, parity (nulipara) had the highest odd ratio (OR = 1.85 [95% CI 1.47-2.32]) followed by body mass index (overweight) (OR = 1.61 [95% CI 1.43-1.80]) and use of oral contraceptives (OR = 1.27 [95% CI 1.07-1.51]). Of non-modifiable risk factors, family history of breast cancer had the highest odd ratio (OR = 2.53 [95% CI 1.25-5.09]), followed by age (≥ 40 years) (OR = 1.53 [95% CI 1.34-1.76]) and menopausal status (OR = 1.44 [95% CI 1.26-1.65]). Conclusion: This analysis confirmed associations between both modifiable risk factors (parity, body mass index and use of oral contraceptives) and non-modifiable risk factors (family history of breast cancer, age and menopausal status) with breast cancer. Creative Commons Attribution License

Risk analysis and the law: international law, the World Trade Organization, Codex Alimentarius and national legislation.

PubMed

Horton, L R

2001-12-01

This paper discusses the place of risk analysis in international trade from a US perspective, through looking at the activities of the World Trade Organization and the Codex Alimentarius Commission. After examining what the trade agreements say about risk analysis and how international bodies are advancing and using risk analysis, the paper goes on to assess how risk analysis is used at a national level. Finally, recommendations are made for strengthening international food safety initiatives.

Milk, yogurt, and lactose intake and ovarian cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Jing; Tang, Wenru; Sang, Lei; Dai, Xiaoli; Wei, Danping; Luo, Ying; Zhang, Jihong

2015-01-01

Inconclusive information for the role of dairy food intake in relation to ovarian cancer risk may associate with adverse effects of lactose, which has been hypothesized to increase gonadotropin levels in animal models and ecological studies. Up to now, several studies have indicated the association between dairy food intake and risk of ovarian cancer, but no identified founding was reported. We performed this meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of the association between dairy food intake and ovarian cancer risk. Using the data from 19 available publications, we examined dairy food including low-fat/skim milk, whole milk, yogurt and lactose in relation to risk of ovarian cancer by meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to assess the association. We observed a slightly increased risk of ovarian cancer with high intake of whole milk, but has no statistical significance (OR = 1.228, 95% CI = 1.031-1.464, P = 0.022). The results of other milk models did not provide evidence of positive association with ovarian cancer risk. This meta-analysis suggests that low-fat/skim milk, whole milk, yogurt and lactose intake has no associated with increased risk of ovarian cancer. Further studies with larger participants worldwide are needed to validate the association between dairy food intake and ovarian cancer.

Practical, transparent prospective risk analysis for the clinical laboratory.

PubMed

Janssens, Pim Mw

2014-11-01

Prospective risk analysis (PRA) is an essential element in quality assurance for clinical laboratories. Practical approaches to conducting PRA in laboratories, however, are scarce. On the basis of the classical Failure Mode and Effect Analysis method, an approach to PRA was developed for application to key laboratory processes. First, the separate, major steps of the process under investigation are identified. Scores are then given for the Probability (P) and Consequence (C) of predefined types of failures and the chances of Detecting (D) these failures. Based on the P and C scores (on a 10-point scale), an overall Risk score (R) is calculated. The scores for each process were recorded in a matrix table. Based on predetermined criteria for R and D, it was determined whether a more detailed analysis was required for potential failures and, ultimately, where risk-reducing measures were necessary, if any. As an illustration, this paper presents the results of the application of PRA to our pre-analytical and analytical activities. The highest R scores were obtained in the stat processes, the most common failure type in the collective process steps was 'delayed processing or analysis', the failure type with the highest mean R score was 'inappropriate analysis' and the failure type most frequently rated as suboptimal was 'identification error'. The PRA designed is a useful semi-objective tool to identify process steps with potential failures rated as risky. Its systematic design and convenient output in matrix tables makes it easy to perform, practical and transparent. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

PubMed

Boenke, A

2001-12-01

The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

Calcium Intake and the Risk of Ovarian Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Song, Xingxing; Li, Zongyao; Ji, Xinqiang; Zhang, Dongfeng

2017-01-01

Several epidemiological studies have evaluated the association between calcium intake and the risk of ovarian cancer. However, the results of these studies remain controversial. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis to explore the association between calcium intake and the risk of ovarian cancer. Pubmed, Embase and Web of Science were searched for eligible publications up to April 2017. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the random-effects model. Small-study effect was estimated using Egger’s test and the funnel plot. Among 15 epidemiological studies involving 493,415 participants and 7453 cases eligible for this meta-analysis, 13 studies were about dietary calcium intake, 4 studies about dairy calcium intake and 7 studies about dietary plus supplemental calcium intake. When comparing the highest with the lowest intake, the pooled RRs of ovarian cancer were 0.80 (95% CI 0.72–0.89) for dietary calcium, 0.80 (95% CI 0.66–0.98) for dairy calcium and 0.90 (95% CI 0.65–1.24) for dietary plus supplemental calcium, respectively. Dietary calcium was significantly associated with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer among cohort studies (RR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.74–0.99) and among case-control studies (RR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.64–0.89). In subgroup analysis by ovarian cancer subtypes, we found a statistically significant association between the dietary calcium (RR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.69–0.88) and the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). This meta-analysis indicated that increased calcium intake might be inversely associated with the risk of ovarian cancer; this still needs to be confirmed by larger prospective cohort studies. PMID:28665326

Risk factors for baclofen pump infection in children: a multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Spader, Heather S; Bollo, Robert J; Bowers, Christian A; Riva-Cambrin, Jay

2016-06-01

OBJECTIVE Intrathecal baclofen infusion systems to manage severe spasticity and dystonia are associated with higher infection rates in children than in adults. Factors unique to this population, such as poor nutrition and physical limitations for pump placement, have been hypothesized as the reasons for this disparity. The authors assessed potential risk factors for infection in a multivariate analysis. METHODS Patients who underwent implantation of a programmable pump and intrathecal catheter for baclofen infusion at a single center between January 1, 2000, and March 1, 2012, were identified in this retrospective cohort study. The primary end point was infection. Potential risk factors investigated included preoperative (i.e., demographics, body mass index [BMI], gastrostomy tube, tracheostomy, previous spinal fusion), intraoperative (i.e., surgeon, antibiotics, pump size, catheter location), and postoperative (i.e., wound dehiscence, CSF leak, and number of revisions) factors. Univariate analysis was performed, and a multivariate logistic regression model was created to identify independent risk factors for infection. RESULTS A total of 254 patients were evaluated. The overall infection rate was 9.8%. Univariate analysis identified young age, shorter height, lower weight, dehiscence, CSF leak, and number of revisions within 6 months of pump placement as significantly associated with infection. Multivariate analysis identified young age, dehiscence, and number of revisions as independent risk factors for infection. CONCLUSIONS Young age, wound dehiscence, and number of revisions were independent risk factors for infection in this pediatric cohort. A low BMI and the presence of either a gastrostomy or tracheostomy were not associated with infection and may not be contraindications for this procedure.

Dose-Dependent Associations between Wine Drinking and Breast Cancer Risk - Meta-Analysis Findings.

PubMed

Chen, Jia-Yan; Zhu, Hong-Cheng; Guo, Qing; Shu, Zheng; Bao, Xu-Hui; Sun, Feng; Qin, Qin; Yang, Xi; Zhang, Chi; Cheng, Hong-Yan; Sun, Xin-Chen

2016-01-01

To investigate any potential association between wine and breast cancer risk. We quantitatively assessed associations by conducting a meta-analysis based on evidence from observational studies. In May 2014, we performed electronic searches in PubMed, EmBase and the Cochrane Library to identify studies examining the effect of wine drinking on breast cancer incidence. The relative risk (RR) or odds ratio (OR) were used to measure any such association. The analysis was further stratified by confounding factors that could influence the results. A total of twenty-six studies (eight case-control and eighteen cohort studies) involving 21,149 cases were included in our meta-analysis. Our study demonstrated that wine drinking was associated with breast cancer risk. A 36% increase in breast cancer risk was observed across overall studies based on the highest versus lowest model, with a combined RR of 1.0059 (95%CI 0.97-1.05) in dose-response analysis. However, 5 g/d ethanol from wine seemed to have protective value from our non-linear model. Our findings indicate that wine drinking is associated with breast cancer risk in a dose-dependent manner. High consumption of wine contributes to breast cancer risk with protection exerted by low doses. Further investigations are needed for clarification.

Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Hua, Xiaoli; Yu, Lili; You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu

2016-01-01

Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68-0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50-0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58-0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71-1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger's test (p = 0.26). This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted.

Association among Dietary Flavonoids, Flavonoid Subclasses and Ovarian Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

You, Ruxu; Yang, Yu; Liao, Jing; Chen, Dongsheng; Yu, Lixiu

2016-01-01

Background Previous studies have indicated that intake of dietary flavonoids or flavonoid subclasses is associated with the ovarian cancer risk, but presented controversial results. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation of these associations. Methods We performed a search in PubMed, Google Scholar and ISI Web of Science from their inception to April 25, 2015 to select studies on the association among dietary flavonoids, flavonoid subclasses and ovarian cancer risk. The information was extracted by two independent authors. We assessed the heterogeneity, sensitivity, publication bias and quality of the articles. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Results Five cohort studies and seven case-control studies were included in the final meta-analysis. We observed that intake of dietary flavonoids can decrease ovarian cancer risk, which was demonstrated by pooled RR (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.98). In a subgroup analysis by flavonoid subtypes, the ovarian cancer risk was also decreased for isoflavones (RR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50–0.92) and flavonols (RR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.58–0.80). While there was no compelling evidence that consumption of flavones (RR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.71–1.03) could decrease ovarian cancer risk, which revealed part sources of heterogeneity. The sensitivity analysis indicated stable results, and no publication bias was observed based on the results of Funnel plot analysis and Egger’s test (p = 0.26). Conclusions This meta-analysis suggested that consumption of dietary flavonoids and subtypes (isoflavones, flavonols) has a protective effect against ovarian cancer with a reduced risk of ovarian cancer except for flavones consumption. Nevertheless, further investigations on a larger population covering more flavonoid subclasses are warranted. PMID:26960146

Dietary Inflammatory Index and Colorectal Cancer Risk-A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Godos, Justyna; Hébert, James R; Wirth, Michael D; Piuri, Gabriele; Speciani, Attilio F; Grosso, Giuseppe

2017-09-20

Diet and chronic inflammation of the colon have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). The possible link between inflammatory potential of diet, measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII ® ), and CRC has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from nine studies were eligible, of which five were case-control and four were cohort studies. Results from meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII scores, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and CRC. Individuals in the highest versus the lowest (reference) DII category showed an overall 40% increased risk of CRC with moderate evidence of heterogeneity [relative risk (RR) = 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.26, 1.55; I ² = 69%, p < 0.001]. When analyzed as a continuous variable, results showed an increased risk of CRC of 7% for a 1-point increase in the DII score. Results remained unchanged when analyses were restricted to the four prospective studies. Results of our meta-analysis support the importance of adopting a healthier anti-inflammatory diet in preventing CRC. These results further substantiate the utility of DII as tool to characterize the inflammatory potential of diet and to predict CRC.

Hazards and occupational risk in hard coal mines - a critical analysis of legal requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Marcin

2017-11-01

This publication concerns the problems of occupational safety and health in hard coal mines, the basic elements of which are the mining hazards and the occupational risk. The work includes a comparative analysis of selected provisions of general and industry-specific law regarding the analysis of hazards and occupational risk assessment. Based on a critical analysis of legal requirements, basic assumptions regarding the practical guidelines for occupational risk assessment in underground coal mines have been proposed.

Dietary Cholesterol Intake and Risk of Lung Cancer: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Lin, Xiaojing; Liu, Lingli; Fu, Youyun; Gao, Jing; He, Yunyun; Wu, Yang; Lian, Xuemei

2018-02-08

Multiple epidemiologic studies have evaluated the relationship between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk, but the association is controversial and inconclusive. A meta-analysis of case-control studies and cohort studies was conducted to evaluate the relationship between dietary cholesterol intake and lung cancer risk in this study. A relevant literature search up to October 2017 was performed in Web of Science, PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Sinomed, and VIP Journal Integration Platform. Ten case-control studies and six cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis, and the risk estimates were pooled using either fixed or random effects models. The case-control studies with a total of 6894 lung cancer cases and 29,736 controls showed that dietary cholesterol intake was positively associated with lung cancer risk (Odds Ratio = 1.70, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.43-2.03). However, there was no evidence of an association between dietary cholesterol intake and risk of lung cancer among the 241,920 participants and 1769 lung cancer cases in the cohort studies (Relative Risk = 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.94-1.25). Due to inconsistent results from case-control and cohort studies, it is difficult to draw any conclusion regarding the effects of dietary cholesterol intake on lung cancer risk. Carefully designed and well-conducted cohort studies are needed to identify the association between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk.

Analysis of risk factors in the development of retinopathy of prematurity.

PubMed

Knezević, Sanja; Stojanović, Nadezda; Oros, Ana; Savić, Dragana; Simović, Aleksandra; Knezević, Jasmina

2011-01-01

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a multifactorial disease that occurs most frequently in very small and very sick preterm infants, and it has been identified as the major cause of childhood blindness. The aim of this study was to evaluate ROP incidence and risk factors associated with varying degrees of illness. The study was conducted at the Centre for Neonatology, Paediatric Clinic of the Clinical Centre Kragujevac, Serbia, in the period from June 2006 to December 2008. Ophthalmologic screening was performed in all children with body weight lower than 2000 g or gestational age lower than 36 weeks. We analyzed eighteen postnatal and six perinatal risk factors and the group correlations for each of the risk factors. Out of 317 children that were screened, 56 (17.7%) developed a mild form of ROP, while 68 (21.5%) developed a severe form. Univariate analysis revealed a large number of statistically significant risk factors for the development of ROP, especially the severe form. Multivariate logistical analysis further separated two independent risk factors: small birth weight (p = 0.001) and damage of central nervous system (p = 0.01). Independent risk factors for transition from mild to severe forms of ROP were identified as: small birth weight (p = 0.05) and perinatal risk factors (p = 0.02). Small birth weight and central nervous system damage were risk factors for the development of ROP, perinatal risk factors were identified as significant for transition from mild to severe form of ROP.

Fruit and vegetable intake and prostate cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Meng, Hongzhou; Hu, Wenyi; Chen, Zhaodian; Shen, Yuehong

2014-06-01

Recent reports have examined the effect of fruit and vegetable intake on the risk of prostate cancer, but the results are inconsistent. A meta-analysis of prospective studies was conducted to arrive at quantitative conclusions about the contribution of vegetable and fruit intake to the incidence of prostate cancer. A comprehensive, systematic search of medical literature published up to June 2012 was performed to identify relevant studies. Separate meta-analyses were conducted for fruit and vegetable consumption. The presence of publication bias was assessed using Egger and Begg tests. In total, 16 cohort studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. The combined adjusted relative risk comparing highest with lowest categories showed that there was no association between vegetable and fruit consumption and prostate cancer incidence. The pooled relative risk was 0.97 (95%CI 0.93, 1.01) for vegetables and 1.02 (95%CI 0.98, 1.07) for fruit. There is no heterogeneity between the studies. No publication bias was detected. This meta-analysis suggests that total fruit or vegetable consumption may not exert a protective role in the risk of prostate cancer. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Working session 5: Operational aspects and risk analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cizelj, L.; Donoghue, J.

1997-02-01

A general observation is that both operational aspects and risk analysis cannot be adequately discussed without information presented in other sessions. Some overlap of conclusions and recommendations is therefore to be expected. Further, it was assumed that recommendations concerning improvements in some related topics were generated by other sessions and are not repeated here. These include: (1) Knowledge on degradation mechanisms (initiation, progression, and failure). (2) Modeling of degradation (initiation, progression, and failure). (3) Capabilities of NDE methods. (4) Preventive maintenance and repair. One should note here, however, that all of these directly affect both operational and risk aspects ofmore » affected plants. A list of conclusions and recommendations is based on available presentations and discussions addressing risk and operational experience. The authors aimed at reaching as broad a consensus as possible. It should be noted here that there is no strict delineation between operational and safety aspects of degradation of steam generator tubes. This is caused by different risk perceptions in different countries/societies. The conclusions and recommendations were divided into four broad groups: human reliability; leakage monitoring; risk impact; and consequence assessment.« less

78 FR 69604 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-20

... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of... Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' and its information collection... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food.'' IV. How To...

Risk of malignancy in ankylosing spondylitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Deng, Chuiwen; Li, Wenli; Fei, Yunyun; Li, Yongzhe; Zhang, Fengchun

2016-08-18

Current knowledge about the overall and site-specific risk of malignancy associated with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to address this knowledge gap. Five databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, the Cochrane library and the virtual health library) were systematically searched. A manual search of publications within the last 2 years in key journals in the field (Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases, Rheumatology and Arthritis &rheumatology) was also performed. STATA 11.2 software was used to conduct the meta-analysis. After screening, twenty-three studies, of different designs, were eligible for meta-analysis. AS is associated with a 14% (pooled RR 1.14; 95% CI 1.03-1.25) increase in the overall risk for malignancy. Compared to controls, patients with AS are at a specific increased risk for malignancy of the digestive system (pooled RR 1.20; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.42), multiple myelomas (pooled RR 1.92; 95% CI 1.37 to 3.69) and lymphomas (pooled RR 1.32; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.57). On subgroup analysis, evidence from high quality cohort studies indicated that AS patients from Asia are at highest risk for malignancy overall. Confirmation of findings from large-scale longitudinal studies is needed to identify specific risk factors and to evaluate treatment effects.

The concept of antifragility and its implications for the practice of risk analysis.

PubMed

Aven, Terje

2015-03-01

Nassim Taleb's antifragile concept has been shown considerable interest in the media and on the Internet recently. For Taleb, the antifragile concept is a blueprint for living in a black swan world (where surprising extreme events may occur), the key being to love variation and uncertainty to some degree, and thus also errors. The antonym of "fragile" is not robustness or resilience, but "please mishandle" or "please handle carelessly," using an example from Taleb when referring to sending a package full of glasses by post. In this article, we perform a detailed analysis of this concept, having a special focus on how the antifragile concept relates to common ideas and principles of risk management. The article argues that Taleb's antifragile concept adds an important contribution to the current practice of risk analysis by its focus on the dynamic aspects of risk and performance, and the necessity of some variation, uncertainties, and risk to achieve improvements and high performance at later stages. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk analysis procedure for post-wildfire natural hazards in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Peter

2010-05-01

Following a severe wildfire season in 2003, and several subsequent damaging debris flow and flood events, the British Columbia Forest Service developed a procedure for analysing risks to public safety and infrastructure from such events. At the same time, the Forest Service undertook a research program to determine the extent of post-wildfire hazards, and examine the hydrologic and geomorphic processes contributing to the hazards. The risk analysis procedure follows the Canadian Standards Association decision-making framework for risk management (which in turn is based on international standards). This has several steps: identification of risk, risk analysis and estimation, evaluation of risk tolerability, developing control or mitigation strategies, and acting on these strategies. The Forest Service procedure deals only with the first two steps. The results are passed on to authorities such as the Provincial Emergency Program and local government, who are responsible for evaluating risks, warning residents, and applying mitigation strategies if appropriate. The objective of the procedure is to identify and analyse risks to public safety and infrastructure. The procedure is loosely based on the BAER (burned area emergency response) program in the USA, with some important differences. Our procedure focuses on identifying risks and warning affected parties, not on mitigation activities such as broadcast erosion control measures. Partly this is due to limited staff and financial resources. Also, our procedure is not multi-agency, but is limited to wildfires on provincial forest land; in British Columbia about 95% of forest land is in the publicly-owned provincial forest. Each fire season, wildfires are screened by size and proximity to values at risk such as populated areas. For selected fires, when the fire is largely contained, the procedure begins with an aerial reconnaissance of the fire, and photography with a hand-held camera, which can be used to make a

Prenatal antibiotic use and risk of childhood wheeze/asthma: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhao, Desheng; Su, Hong; Cheng, Jian; Wang, Xu; Xie, Mingyu; Li, Kesheng; Wen, Liying; Yang, Huihui

2015-12-01

Existing body of knowledge suggests that antibiotic use during pregnancy was inconsistently associated with childhood wheeze/asthma. The aim of this study was to determine whether exposure to antibiotic during pregnancy could increase the risk for childhood wheeze/asthma using a comprehensive meta-analysis. PubMed, MEDLINE, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were systematically searched for studies up to September 10, 2014, and additional studies were found by searching reference lists of relevant articles. For this meta-analysis, cohort studies and case-control studies assessing the association between antibiotic use during pregnancy and risk of childhood wheeze/asthma were included. Extracted data were mainly pooled using random-effects model. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale (NOS). Ten studies were identified in final analysis. Pooling analysis of these studies showed an OR of 1.20 (95% CI, 1.13-1.27) for wheeze/asthma. After excluding case-control studies and prospective studies without achieving high scores on the NOS, the pooled OR was 1.18 (95% CI, 1.11-1.26). We found the risk of antibiotic use and pooled ORs of wheeze/asthma were 1.09 (95% CI, 0.92-1.29) for the first trimester, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.01-1.29) for the second trimester, and 1.33 (95% CI, 1.11-1.60) for the third trimester, respectively. This meta-analysis suggests that antibiotic exposure during pregnancy may increase the risk of wheeze/asthma in childhood. Besides, the risk of developing wheeze/asthma in childhood was marked during last two trimesters of pregnancy. Future studies of large-size and prospective cohorts which adequately address concerns for confounder bias are needed to examine the relationship between antibiotic use and risk of childhood asthma. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Use of benzodiazepine and risk of cancer: A meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Kim, Hong-Bae; Myung, Seung-Kwon; Park, Yon Chul; Park, Byoungjin

2017-02-01

Several observational epidemiological studies have reported inconsistent results on the association between the use of benzodiazepine and the risk of cancer. We investigated the association by using a meta-analysis. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the bibliographies of relevant articles to locate additional publications in January 2016. Three evaluators independently reviewed and selected eligible studies based on predetermined selection criteria. Of 796 articles meeting our initial criteria, a total of 22 observational epidemiological studies with 18 case-control studies and 4 cohort studies were included in the final analysis. Benzodiazepine use was significantly associated with an increased risk of cancer (odds ratio [OR] or relative risk [RR] 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.21) in a random-effects meta-analysis of all studies. Subgroup meta-analyses by various factors such as study design, type of case-control study, study region, and methodological quality of study showed consistent findings. Also, a significant dose-response relationship was observed between the use of benzodiazepine and the risk of cancer (p for trend <0.01). The current meta-analysis of observational epidemiological studies suggests that benzodiazepine use is associated with an increased risk of cancer. © 2016 UICC.

Dietary fat intake and ovarian cancer risk: a meta-analysis of epidemiological studies

PubMed Central

Qiu, Wenlong; Lu, Heng; Qi, Yana; Wang, Xiuwen

2016-01-01

Observational studies assessing the association of dietary fat and risk of ovarian cancer yield discrepant results. Pertinent prospective cohort studies were identified by a PubMed search from inception to December 2015. Sixteen independent case-control and nine cohort studies on dietary fat intake were included, with approximately 900,000 subjects in total. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals were pooled using a random effects model. Heterogeneity, sensitivity analysis and publication bias were assessed; subgroup analysis and analysis stratified by EOC histology were conducted. The reported studies showed a significant increase of ovarian cancer risk with high consumption of total-, saturated-, and trans-fats, while serous ovarian cancer was more susceptible to dietary fat consumption than other pathological subtypes. No evidence of positive association between dietary fat intake and ovarian cancer risk was provided by cohort studies. Menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy, body mass index (BMI), and pregnancy times, modified the objective associations. In conclusion, the meta-analysis findings indicate that high consumption of total, saturated and trans-fats increase ovarian cancer risk, and different histological subtypes have different susceptibility to dietary fat. PMID:27119509

78 FR 11611 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-19

... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of... Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food.'' FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Domini Bean... Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' with a 120-day comment...

Behavioral Modeling of Adversaries with Multiple Objectives in Counterterrorism.

PubMed

Mazicioglu, Dogucan; Merrick, Jason R W

2018-05-01

Attacker/defender models have primarily assumed that each decisionmaker optimizes the cost of the damage inflicted and its economic repercussions from their own perspective. Two streams of recent research have sought to extend such models. One stream suggests that it is more realistic to consider attackers with multiple objectives, but this research has not included the adaption of the terrorist with multiple objectives to defender actions. The other stream builds off experimental studies that show that decisionmakers deviate from optimal rational behavior. In this article, we extend attacker/defender models to incorporate multiple objectives that a terrorist might consider in planning an attack. This includes the tradeoffs that a terrorist might consider and their adaption to defender actions. However, we must also consider experimental evidence of deviations from the rationality assumed in the commonly used expected utility model in determining such adaption. Thus, we model the attacker's behavior using multiattribute prospect theory to account for the attacker's multiple objectives and deviations from rationality. We evaluate our approach by considering an attacker with multiple objectives who wishes to smuggle radioactive material into the United States and a defender who has the option to implement a screening process to hinder the attacker. We discuss the problems with implementing such an approach, but argue that research in this area must continue to avoid misrepresenting terrorist behavior in determining optimal defensive actions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Sweetened carbonated beverage consumption and cancer risk: meta-analysis and review.

PubMed

Boyle, Peter; Koechlin, Alice; Autier, Philippe

2014-09-01

There is speculation on an association between sweetened, carbonated beverage consumption and cancer risk. This study aimed to examine this issue. Over 50 independent estimates of risk were available, 11 for colas specifically. A random-effects meta-analysis was carried out with tests for publication bias performed as well as Higgins and Thompson's I measure of the percentage of heterogeneity between studies that could not be explained by chance. Over all the different sites of cancer, the summary relative risk (SRR), when all 55 independent estimates were considered together, was SRR=1.03 [95% confidence interval (0.96; 1.11)]. When individual cancer sites were considered, there was no significant increase or decrease in the meta-analysis estimate of risk of cancer of the pancreas, bladder, kidney, squamous cell or adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus, colon, gastric cardia, gastric noncardia, prostate, breast, larynx and ovary or of the oral cavity, pharynx or glioma. There was no evidence in a sensitivity analysis from those studies that reported results separately for colas of an associated risk of pancreas cancer [SRR=1.00, 95% confidence interval (0.61; 1.65)]. The results for all other forms of cancers were considerably hampered by poor methodology and small numbers of studies (mainly one report on each cancer site studied). Overall, the findings are reassuring in terms of the association between soft drinks, including colas, and cancer risk, although the quality of many of the studies is quite poor by acceptable, modern standards and no study has been carried out with use of carbonated beverages as a primary hypothesis.

Dietary Inflammatory Index and Cardiovascular Risk and Mortality-A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Godos, Justyna; Hébert, James R; Wirth, Michael D; Piuri, Gabriele; Speciani, Attilio F; Grosso, Giuseppe

2018-02-12

Diet and chronic inflammation have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and related mortality. The possible link between the inflammatory potential of diet measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII ® ) and CVD has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from 14 studies were eligible, of which two were case-control, eleven were cohort, and one was cross-sectional. Results from the random-effects meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and CVD. Individuals in the highest versus the lowest (reference) DII category showed a 36% increased risk of CVD incidence and mortality, with moderate evidence of heterogeneity (relative risk (RR) = 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19, 1.57; heterogeneity index I ² = 69%, p < 0.001). When analyzed as a continuous variable, results showed an increased risk of CVD risk and mortality of 8% for each one-point increase in the DII score. Results remained unchanged when analyses were restricted to the prospective studies. Results of our meta-analysis support the importance of adopting a healthier anti-inflammatory diet for preventing CVD incidence and related mortality. In conclusion, a pro-inflammatory diet is associated with increased risk of CVD and CVD mortality. These results further substantiate the utility of DII as tool to characterize the inflammatory potential of diet and to predict CVD incidence and mortality.

The Risks to Patient Privacy from Publishing Data from Clinical Anesthesia Studies.

PubMed

O'Neill, Liam; Dexter, Franklin; Zhang, Nan

2016-06-01

In this article, we consider the privacy implications of posting data from small, randomized trials, observational studies, or case series in anesthesia from a few (e.g., 1-3) hospitals. Prior to publishing such data as supplemental digital content, the authors remove attributes that could be used to re-identify individuals, a process known as "anonymization." Posting health information that has been properly "de-identified" is assumed to pose no risks to patient privacy. Yet, computer scientists have demonstrated that this assumption is flawed. We consider various realistic scenarios of how the publication of such data could lead to breaches of patient privacy. Several examples of successful privacy attacks are reviewed, as well as the methods used. We survey the latest models and methods from computer science for protecting health information and their application to posting data from small anesthesia studies. To illustrate the vulnerability of such published data, we calculate the "population uniqueness" for patients undergoing one or more surgical procedures using data from the State of Texas. For a patient selected uniformly at random, the probability that an adversary could match this patient's record to a unique record in the state external database was 42.8% (SE < 0.1%). Despite the 42.8% being an unacceptably high level of risk, it underestimates the risk for patients from smaller states or provinces. We propose an editorial policy that greatly reduces the likelihood of a privacy breach, while supporting the goal of transparency of the research process.

Smoking increases the risk of diabetic foot amputation: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Min; Zhang, Wei; Yan, Zhaoli; Yuan, Xiangzhen

2018-02-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that smoking is associated with diabetic foot amputation. However, the currently available results are inconsistent and controversial. Therefore, the present study performed a meta-analysis to systematically review the association between smoking and diabetic foot amputation and to investigate the risk factors of diabetic foot amputation. Public databases, including PubMed and Embase, were searched prior to 29th February 2016. The heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochran's Q statistic and the I 2 statistic, and odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated and pooled appropriately. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the stability of the results. In addition, Egger's test was applied to assess any potential publication bias. Based on the research, a total of eight studies, including five cohort studies and three case control studies were included. The data indicated that smoking significantly increased the risk of diabetic foot amputation (OR=1.65; 95% CI, 1.09-2.50; P<0.0001) compared with non-smoking. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the pooled analysis did not vary substantially following the exclusion of any one study. Additionally, there was no evidence of publication bias (Egger's test, t=0.1378; P=0.8958). Furthermore, no significant difference was observed between the minor and major amputation groups in patients who smoked (OR=0.79; 95% CI, 0.24-2.58). The results of the present meta-analysis suggested that smoking is a notable risk factor for diabetic foot amputation. Smoking cessation appears to reduce the risk of diabetic foot amputation.

A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

2014-10-01

Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

Credibility analysis of risk classes by generalized linear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdemir, Ovgucan Karadag; Sucu, Meral

2016-06-01

In this paper generalized linear model (GLM) and credibility theory which are frequently used in nonlife insurance pricing are combined for reliability analysis. Using full credibility standard, GLM is associated with limited fluctuation credibility approach. Comparison criteria such as asymptotic variance and credibility probability are used to analyze the credibility of risk classes. An application is performed by using one-year claim frequency data of a Turkish insurance company and results of credible risk classes are interpreted.

Risk analysis of information security in a mobile instant messaging and presence system for healthcare.

PubMed

Bønes, Erlend; Hasvold, Per; Henriksen, Eva; Strandenaes, Thomas

2007-09-01

Instant messaging (IM) is suited for immediate communication because messages are delivered almost in real time. Results from studies of IM use in enterprise work settings make us believe that IM based services may prove useful also within the healthcare sector. However, today's public instant messaging services do not have the level of information security required for adoption of IM in healthcare. We proposed MedIMob, our own architecture for a secure enterprise IM service for use in healthcare. MedIMob supports IM clients on mobile devices in addition to desktop based clients. Security threats were identified in a risk analysis of the MedIMob architecture. The risk analysis process consists of context identification, threat identification, analysis of consequences and likelihood, risk evaluation, and proposals for risk treatment. The risk analysis revealed a number of potential threats to the information security of a service like this. Many of the identified threats are general when dealing with mobile devices and sensitive data; others are threats which are more specific to our service and architecture. Individual threats identified in the risks analysis are discussed and possible counter measures presented. The risk analysis showed that most of the proposed risk treatment measures must be implemented to obtain an acceptable risk level; among others blocking much of the additional functionality of the smartphone. To conclude on the usefulness of this IM service, it will be evaluated in a trial study of the human-computer interaction. Further work also includes an improved design of the proposed MedIMob architecture. 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd

Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

2007-11-01

This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably

Specifying the ovarian cancer risk threshold of 'premenopausal risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy' for ovarian cancer prevention: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Manchanda, Ranjit; Legood, Rosa; Antoniou, Antonis C; Gordeev, Vladimir S; Menon, Usha

2016-09-01

Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) is the most effective intervention to prevent ovarian cancer (OC). It is only available to high-risk women with >10% lifetime OC risk. This threshold has not been formally tested for cost-effectiveness. To specify the OC risk thresholds for RRSO being cost-effective for preventing OC in premenopausal women. The costs as well as effects of surgical prevention ('RRSO') were compared over a lifetime with 'no RRSO' using a decision analysis model. RRSO was undertaken in premenopausal women >40 years. The model was evaluated at lifetime OC risk levels: 2%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% and 10%. Costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. Uncertainty in the model was assessed using both deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Outcomes included in the analyses were OC, breast cancer (BC) and additional deaths from coronary heart disease. Total costs and effects were estimated in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); incidence of OC and BC; as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Published literature, Nurses Health Study, British National Formulary, Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines and National Health Service reference costs. The time horizon is lifetime and perspective: payer. Premenopausal RRSO is cost-effective at 4% OC risk (life expectancy gained=42.7 days, ICER=£19 536/QALY) with benefits largely driven by reduction in BC risk. RRSO remains cost-effective at >8.2% OC risk without hormone replacement therapy (ICER=£29 071/QALY, life expectancy gained=21.8 days) or 6%if BC risk reduction=0 (ICER=£27 212/QALY, life expectancy gained=35.3 days). Sensitivity analysis indicated results are not impacted much by costs of surgical prevention or treatment of OC/ BC or cardiovascular disease. However, results were sensitive to RRSO utility scores. Additionally, 37%, 61%, 74%, 84%, 96% and 99.5% simulations on PSA are cost

Wine drinking and epithelial ovarian cancer risk: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Kim, Hee Seung; Shouten, Leo J.; Larsson, Susanna C.; Chung, Hyun Hoon; Kim, Yong Beom; Ju, Woong; Park, Noh Hyun; Song, Yong Sang; Kim, Seung Cheol; Kang, Soon-Beom

2010-01-01

Objective Wine has been the focus in the prevention of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) development because resveratrol abundant in wine has anti-carcinogenic properties. However, epidemiologic results have been heterogenous in the chemopreventive effect of wine on the development of EOC. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis for comparing EOC risk between wine and never drinkers using previous related studies. Methods After extensive search of the literature between January 1986 and December 2008, we analyzed 10 studies (3 cohort and 7 case control studies) with 135,871 women, who included 65,578 of wine and 70,293 of never drinkers. Results In all studies, there was no significant difference in EOC risk between wine and never drinkers (odds ratio [OR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 1.38; random effects). When we performed re-analysis according to the study design, 3 cohort and 7 case control studies showed that there were also no significant differences in EOC risk between wine and never drinkers, respectively (OR, 1.44 and 1.04; 95% CI, 0.74 and 2.82 and 0.88 to 1.22; random effects). In sub-analyses using 2 case-control studies, EOC risk was not different between former and never drinkers (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.87 to 1.44; fixed effect), and between current and former drinkers (OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.41 to 1.34; random effects). Conclusion Although resveratrol, abundantly found in wine, is a promising naturally occurring compound with chemopreventive properties on EOC in preclinical studies, this meta-analysis suggests the epidemiologic evidence shows no association between wine drinking and EOC risk. PMID:20613902

78 FR 24691 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-26

... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' that appeared in... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' with a 120-day...

Meta-analysis of the rs2075650 polymorphism and risk of Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

He, Ya; Li, Chen; Yang, Ying; Li, Yizhou; Wang, Yuan; Yang, Hua; Jin, Tianbo; Chen, Songsheng

2016-10-01

Several researchers have suggested that the rs2075650 polymorphism is significantly associated with an increased risk of developing Alzheimer disease (AD) in European. However, some others found inconsistent results in Asian (Chinese and Korean). We addressed the controversy through performing a meta-analysis of the relationship between rs2075650 in TOMM40 (translocase of outer mitochondrial membrane 40 homologue) and Alzheimer disease. We selected eight case-control studies involving 4290 cases of Alzheimer disease and 5556 healthy individuals. The association between the TOMM40 rs2075650 polymorphism and Alzheimer disease was examined by overall odds ratio (OR) with a 95 % confidence interval (CI). We used different genetic model analysis, sensitivity analysis, and assessments of bias in our meta-analysis. The pooled analysis showed the inconsistent results that TOMM40 rs2075650 polymorphism was associated with Alzheimer disease in European and Korean population in all genetic models, but there was no significant association between the TOMM40 rs2075650 polymorphism and Alzheimer disease risk in Chinese population. We conclude that rs2075650 in TOMM40 gene may increase the risk of Alzheimer disease.

The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

[The role of a specialised risk analysis group in the Veterinary Services of a developing country].

PubMed

Urbina-Amarís, M E

2003-08-01

Since the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures was established, risk analysis in trade, and ultimately in Veterinary and Animal Health Services, has become strategically important. Irrespective of their concept (discipline, approach, method, process), all types of risk analysis in trade involve four periods or phases:--risk identification-- risk assessment--risk management--risk information or communication. All veterinarians involved in a risk analysis unit must have in-depth knowledge of statistics and the epidemiology of transmissible diseases, as well as a basic knowledge of veterinary science, economics, mathematics, data processing and social communication, to enable them to work with professionals in these disciplines. Many developing countries do not have enough well-qualified professionnals in these areas to support a risk analysis unit. This will need to be rectified by seeking strategic alliances with other public or private sectors that will provide the required support to run the unit properly. Due to the special nature of its risk analysis functions, its role in supporting decision-making, and the criteria of independence and transparency that are so crucial to its operations, the hierarchical position of the risk analysis unit should be close to the top management of the Veterinary Service. Due to the shortage of personnel in developing countries with the required training and scientific and technical qualifications, countries with organisations responsible for both animal and plant health protection would be advised to set up integrated plant and animal risk analysis units. In addition, these units could take charge of all activities relating to WTO agreements and regional agreements on animal and plant health management.

Understanding policy persistence-The case of police drug detection dog policy in NSW, Australia.

PubMed

Hughes, Caitlin E; Ritter, Alison; Lancaster, Kari; Hoppe, Robert

2017-06-01

Significant research attention has been given to understanding the processes of drug policy reform. However, there has been surprisingly little analysis of the persistence of policy in the face of opposition and evidence of ineffectiveness. In this article we analysed just such a case - police drug detection dog policy in NSW, Australia. We sought to identify factors which may account for the continuation of this policy, in spite of counter-evidence and concerted advocacy. The analysis was conducted using the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF). We collated documents relating to NSW drug detection dog policy from 1995 to 2016, including parliamentary records (NSW Parliament Hansard), government and institutional reports, legislation, police procedures, books, media, and academic publications. Texts were then read, coded and classified against the core dimensions of the ACF, including subsystem actors and coalitions, their belief systems and resources and venues employed for policy debate. Three coalitions were identified as competing in the policy subsystem: security/law and order, civil liberties and harm reduction. Factors that aided policy stability were the continued dominance of the security/law and order coalition since they introduced the drug dog policy; a power imbalance enabling the ruling coalition to limit when and where the policy was discussed; and a highly adversarial policy subsystem. In this context even technical knowledge that dogs infringed civil liberties and increased risks of overdose were readily downplayed, leading to only incremental changes in implementation rather than policy cessation or wholesale revision. The analysis provides new insights into why the accumulation of new evidence and advocacy efforts can be insufficient to drive significant policy change. It poses a challenge for the evidence-based paradigm suggesting that in highly adversarial policy subsystems new evidence is unlikely to generate policy change without broader

Deterrence and WMD Terrorism: Calibrating Its Potential Contributions to Risk Reduction

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

ideology and aspiration (so-called franchisees ) • operational enablers (financiers etc.) • moral legitimizers • state sponsors • passive state...of al Qaeda • groups affiliated by ideology and aspiration (so-called franchisees ) • operational enablers (financiers etc.) • moral legitimizers...of deterrence.14 One is “deterrence by the threat of punishment,” which compels the adversary to try to calculate whether the potential benefits of

Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lalk, Thomas R.; Spence, Cliff A.

2003-01-01

A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

Risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism after traumatic injury: A competing risks analysis.

PubMed

Van Gent, Jan-Michael; Calvo, Richard Yee; Zander, Ashley L; Olson, Erik J; Sise, C Beth; Sise, Michael J; Shackford, Steven R

2017-12-01

Venous thromboembolism, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is typically reported as a composite measure of the quality of trauma center care. Given that recent data suggesting postinjury DVT and PE are distinct clinical processes, a better understanding may result from analyzing them as independent, competing events. Using competing risks analysis, we evaluated our hypothesis that the risk factors and timing of postinjury DVT and PE are different. We examined all adult trauma patients admitted to our Level I trauma center from July 2006 to December 2011 who received at least one surveillance duplex ultrasound of the lower extremities and who were at high risk or greater for DVT. Outcomes included DVT and PE events, and time-to-event from admission. We used competing risks analysis to evaluate risk factors for DVT while accounting for PE as a competing event, and vice versa. Of 2,370 patients, 265 (11.2%) had at least one venous thromboembolism event, 235 DVT only, 19 PE only, 11 DVT and PE. Within 2 days of admission, 38% of DVT cases had occurred compared with 26% of PE. Competing risks modeling of DVT as primary event identified older age, severe injury (Injury Severity Score, ≥ 15), mechanical ventilation longer than 4 days, active cancer, history of DVT or PE, major venous repair, male sex, and prophylactic enoxaparin and prophylactic heparin as associated risk factors. Modeling of PE as the primary event showed younger age, nonsevere injury (Injury Severity Score, < 15), central line placement, and prophylactic heparin as relevant factors. The risk factors for PE and DVT after injury were different, suggesting that they are clinically distinct events that merit independent consideration. Many DVT events occurred early despite prophylaxis, bringing into question the preventability of postinjury DVT. We recommend trauma center quality reporting program measures be revised to account for DVT and PE as unique events. Epidemiologic

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R; Kazandjian, D; Blumenthal, G; Pazdur, R; Woodcock, J

2016-12-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analyses. There is much interest in quantifying regulatory approaches to benefit and risk. In this work the use of a quantitative benefit-risk analysis was applied to regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Benefits and risks associated with 20 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions associated with a set of candidate treatments submitted between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed. For benefit analysis, the median overall survival (OS) was used where available. When not available, OS was estimated based on overall response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS). Risks were analyzed based on magnitude (or severity) of harm and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was explored to demonstrate analysis of systematic uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes considered were found to be consistent with the benefit-risk logic. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Circulating Selenium and Prostate Cancer Risk: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

PubMed

Yarmolinsky, James; Bonilla, Carolina; Haycock, Philip C; Langdon, Ryan J Q; Lotta, Luca A; Langenberg, Claudia; Relton, Caroline L; Lewis, Sarah J; Evans, David M; Davey Smith, George; Martin, Richard M

2018-05-17

In the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT), selenium supplementation (causing a median 114 μg/L increase in circulating selenium) did not lower overall prostate cancer risk, but increased risk of high-grade prostate cancer and type 2 diabetes. Mendelian randomization analysis uses genetic variants to proxy modifiable risk factors and can strengthen causal inference in observational studies. We constructed a genetic instrument comprising 11 single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly (P < 5 × 10-8) associated with circulating selenium in genome-wide association studies. In a Mendelian randomization analysis of 72 729 men in the PRACTICAL Consortium (44 825 case subjects, 27 904 control subjects), 114 μg/L higher genetically elevated circulating selenium was not associated with prostate cancer (odds ratio [OR] = 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.89 to 1.13). In concordance with findings from SELECT, selenium was weakly associated with advanced (including high-grade) prostate cancer (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.49) and type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 0.97 to 1.43; in a type 2 diabetes genome-wide association study meta-analysis with up to 49 266 case subjects and 249 906 control subjects). Our Mendelian randomization analyses do not support a role for selenium supplementation in prostate cancer prevention and suggest that supplementation could have adverse effects on risks of advanced prostate cancer and type 2 diabetes.

Meta-analysis: Does garlic intake reduce risk of gastric cancer?

PubMed

Kodali, R T; Eslick, Guy D

2015-01-01

In the past 2 decades, various epidemiological studies investigated whether garlic can positively modify the risk of gastric cancer. Garlic contains numerous sulfide compounds, including diallyl trisulfide, which have anticarcinogenic properties. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine if garlic intake reduces the risk of gastric cancer. An electronic search of MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE to June 2014 was completed. There were 14 case control studies, 2 randomized controlled studies, and 1 cohort study that fulfilled our inclusion criteria. We used a random effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of gastric cancer with garlic consumption. Meta-analysis of a total of 8,621 cases and 14,889 controls was conducted. Significant variability in duration of garlic intake and reference categories for amount of intake was noted. High, low, and any garlic intake were all associated with reduced risk of gastric cancer. High intake had the most significant risk reduction, OR = 0.49 (95% CI: 0.38-0.62). Heterogeneity was low (I² = 30.85, P = 0.17). A more modest risk reduction was associated with low intake, OR = 0.75 (95% CI: 0.58-0.97). Half of the studies did not separate garlic intake into high or low amounts, intake was only noted as consumption vs. non-consumption. Any amount of consumption still showed a risk reduction similar to low intake, OR = 0.77 (95% CI: 0.60-1.00). Low and any amount of consumption showed moderate heterogeneity (58% and 45%, respectively). Garlic intake appears to be associated with reduced risk of gastric cancer. Further high quality studies are required to confirm this finding and to assess the amount of garlic that needs to be consumed for protective effect.

Translational benchmark risk analysis

PubMed Central

Piegorsch, Walter W.

2010-01-01

Translational development – in the sense of translating a mature methodology from one area of application to another, evolving area – is discussed for the use of benchmark doses in quantitative risk assessment. Illustrations are presented with traditional applications of the benchmark paradigm in biology and toxicology, and also with risk endpoints that differ from traditional toxicological archetypes. It is seen that the benchmark approach can apply to a diverse spectrum of risk management settings. This suggests a promising future for this important risk-analytic tool. Extensions of the method to a wider variety of applications represent a significant opportunity for enhancing environmental, biomedical, industrial, and socio-economic risk assessments. PMID:20953283

Oil-spill risk analysis: Beaufort Sea outer continental shelf lease sale 170. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, C.M.; Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.

1997-02-01

This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis conducted for OCS Lease Sale 170, Beaufort Sea. The objective of this analysis was to estimate relative risks associated with oil and gas production for the proposed lease sale.

Groundwater contamination from waste management sites: The interaction between risk-based engineering design and regulatory policy: 1. Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massmann, Joel; Freeze, R. Allan

1987-02-01

This paper puts in place a risk-cost-benefit analysis for waste management facilities that explicitly recognizes the adversarial relationship that exists in a regulated market economy between the owner/operator of a waste management facility and the government regulatory agency under whose terms the facility must be licensed. The risk-cost-benefit analysis is set up from the perspective of the owner/operator. It can be used directly by the owner/operator to assess alternative design strategies. It can also be used by the regulatory agency to assess alternative regulatory policy, but only in an indirect manner, by examining the response of an owner/operator to the stimuli of various policies. The objective function is couched in terms of a discounted stream of benefits, costs, and risks over an engineering time horizon. Benefits are in the form of revenues for services provided; costs are those of construction and operation of the facility. Risk is defined as the cost associated with the probability of failure, with failure defined as the occurrence of a groundwater contamination event that violates the licensing requirements established for the facility. Failure requires a breach of the containment structure and contaminant migration through the hydrogeological environment to a compliance surface. The probability of failure can be estimated on the basis of reliability theory for the breach of containment and with a Monte-Carlo finite-element simulation for the advective contaminant transport. In the hydrogeological environment the hydraulic conductivity values are defined stochastically. The probability of failure is reduced by the presence of a monitoring network operated by the owner/operator and located between the source and the regulatory compliance surface. The level of reduction in the probability of failure depends on the probability of detection of the monitoring network, which can be calculated from the stochastic contaminant transport simulations. While

An Updated Meta-Analysis of Risk of Multiple Sclerosis following Infectious Mononucleosis

PubMed Central

Handel, Adam E.; Williamson, Alexander J.; Disanto, Giulio; Handunnetthi, Lahiru; Giovannoni, Gavin; Ramagopalan, Sreeram V.

2010-01-01

Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) appears to develop in genetically susceptible individuals as a result of environmental exposures. Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is an almost universal finding among individuals with MS. Symptomatic EBV infection as manifested by infectious mononucleosis (IM) has been shown in a previous meta-analysis to be associated with the risk of MS, however a number of much larger studies have since been published. Methods/Principal Findings We performed a Medline search to identify articles published since the original meta-analysis investigating MS risk following IM. A total of 18 articles were included in this study, including 19390 MS patients and 16007 controls. We calculated the relative risk of MS following IM using a generic inverse variance with random effects model. This showed that the risk of MS was strongly associated with IM (relative risk (RR) 2.17; 95% confidence interval 1.97–2.39; p<10−54). Discussion Our results establish firmly that a history of infectious mononucleosis significantly increases the risk of multiple sclerosis. Future work should focus on the mechanism of this association and interaction with other risk factors. PMID:20824132

Risk factors in laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Kanakala, Venkatesh; Borowski, David W; Pellen, Michael G C; Dronamraju, Shridhar S; Woodcock, Sean A A; Seymour, Keith; Attwood, Stephen E A; Horgan, Liam F

2011-01-01

Laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) is the operation of choice in the treatment of symptomatic gallstone disease. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors for LC, outcomes include operating time, length of stay, conversion rate, morbidity and mortality. All patients undergoing LC between 1998 and 2007 in a single district general hospital. Risk factors were examined using uni- and multivariate analysis. 2117 patients underwent LC, with 1706 (80.6%) patients operated on electively. Male patients were older, had more co-morbidity and more emergency surgery than females. The median post-operative hospital stay was one day, and was positively correlated with the complexity of surgery. Conversion rates were higher in male patients (OR 1.47, p = 0.047) than in females, and increased with co-morbidity. Emergency surgery (OR 1.75, p = 0.005), male gender (OR 1.68, p = 0.005), increasing co-morbidity and complexity of surgery were all positively associated with the incidence of complications (153/2117 [7.2%]), whereas only male gender was significantly associated with mortality (OR 5.71, p = 0.025). Adverse outcome from LC is particularly associated with male gender, but also the patient's co-morbidity, complexity and urgency of surgery. Risk-adjusted outcome analysis is desirable to ensure an informed consent process. Copyright © 2011 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using landslide risk analysis to protect fish habitat

Treesearch

R. M. Rice

1986-01-01

The protection of anadromous fish habitat is an important water quslity concern in the Pacific Northwest. Sediment from logging-related debris avalanches can cause habitat degradation. Research on conditions associated with the sites where debris avalanches originate has resulted in a risk assessment methodology based on linear discriminant analysis. The probability...

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

PubMed Central

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-01-01

Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-11-01

Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit-risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit-risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit-risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit-risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit-risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Benefit-risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

Analysis of dengue fever risk using geostatistics model in bone regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amran, Stang, Mallongi, Anwar

2017-03-01

This research aim is to analysis of dengue fever risk based on Geostatistics model in Bone Regency. Risk levels of dengue fever are denoted by parameter of Binomial distribution. Effect of temperature, rainfalls, elevation, and larvae abundance are investigated through Geostatistics model. Bayesian hierarchical method is used in estimation process. Using dengue fever data in eleven locations this research shows that temperature and rainfall have significant effect of dengue fever risk in Bone regency.

Mobile phone use and risk of tumors: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Myung, Seung-Kwon; Ju, Woong; McDonnell, Diana D; Lee, Yeon Ji; Kazinets, Gene; Cheng, Chih-Tao; Moskowitz, Joel M

2009-11-20

Case-control studies have reported inconsistent findings regarding the association between mobile phone use and tumor risk. We investigated these associations using a meta-analysis. We searched MEDLINE (PubMed), EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library in August 2008. Two evaluators independently reviewed and selected articles based on predetermined selection criteria. Of 465 articles meeting our initial criteria, 23 case-control studies, which involved 37,916 participants (12,344 patient cases and 25,572 controls), were included in the final analyses. Compared with never or rarely having used a mobile phone, the odds ratio for overall use was 0.98 for malignant and benign tumors (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.07) in a random-effects meta-analysis of all 23 studies. However, a significant positive association (harmful effect) was observed in a random-effects meta-analysis of eight studies using blinding, whereas a significant negative association (protective effect) was observed in a fixed-effects meta-analysis of 15 studies not using blinding. Mobile phone use of 10 years or longer was associated with a risk of tumors in 13 studies reporting this association (odds ratio = 1.18; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.34). Further, these findings were also observed in the subgroup analyses by methodologic quality of study. Blinding and methodologic quality of study were strongly associated with the research group. The current study found that there is possible evidence linking mobile phone use to an increased risk of tumors from a meta-analysis of low-biased case-control studies. Prospective cohort studies providing a higher level of evidence are needed.

Insomnia and risk of dementia in older adults: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

de Almondes, Katie Moraes; Costa, Mônica Vieira; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro Fernandes; Diniz, Breno Satler

2016-06-01

There are cross-sectional evidences of an association between sleep disorders and cognitive impairment on older adults. However, there are no consensus by means of longitudinal studies data on the increased risk of developing dementia related to insomnia. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the risk of incident all-cause dementia in individuals with insomnia in population-based prospective cohort studies. Five studies of 5.242 retrieved references were included in the meta-analysis. We used the generic inverse variance method with a random effects model to calculate the pooled risk of dementia in older adults with insomnia. We assessed heterogeneity in the meta-analysis by means of the Q-test and I2 index. Study quality was assessed with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale The results showed that Insomnia was associated with a significant risk of all-cause dementia (RR = 1.53 CI95% (1.07-2.18), z = 2.36, p = 0.02). There was evidence for significant heterogeneity in the analysis (q-value = 2.4, p < 0.001 I2 = 82%). Insomnia is associated with an increased risk for dementia. This results provide evidences that future studies should investigate dementia prevention among elderly individuals through screening and proper management of insomnia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The risk of kidney stones following bariatric surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Thongprayoon, Charat; Cheungpasitporn, Wisit; Vijayvargiya, Priya; Anthanont, Pimjai; Erickson, Stephen B

2016-01-01

With rising prevalence of morbid obesity, the number of bariatric surgeries performed each year has been increasing worldwide. The objective of this meta-analysis was to assess the risk of kidney stones following bariatric surgery. A literature search was performed using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception through July 2015. Only studies reporting relative risks, odd ratios or hazard ratios (HRs) to compare risk of kidney stones in patients who underwent bariatric surgery versus no surgery were included. Pooled risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using a random-effect, generic inverse variance method. Four studies (One randomized controlled trial and three cohort studies) with 11,348 patients were included in analysis to assess the risk of kidney stones following bariatric surgery. The pooled RR of kidney stones in patients undergoing bariatric surgery was 1.22 (95% CI, 0.63-2.35). The type of bariatric surgery subgroup analysis demonstrated an increased risk of kidney stones in patients following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) with the pooled RR of 1.73 (95% CI, 1.30-2.30) and a decreased risk of kidney stones in patients following restrictive procedures including laparoscopic banding or sleeve gastrectomy with the pooled RR of 0.37 (95% CI, 0.16-0.85). Our meta-analysis demonstrates an association between RYGB and increased risk of kidney stones. Restrictive bariatric surgery, on the other hand, may decrease kidney stone risk. Future study with long-term follow-up data is needed to confirm this potential benefit of restrictive bariatric surgery.

Selenium Exposure and Cancer Risk: an Updated Meta-analysis and Meta-regression

PubMed Central

Cai, Xianlei; Wang, Chen; Yu, Wanqi; Fan, Wenjie; Wang, Shan; Shen, Ning; Wu, Pengcheng; Li, Xiuyang; Wang, Fudi

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the associations between selenium exposure and cancer risk. We identified 69 studies and applied meta-analysis, meta-regression and dose-response analysis to obtain available evidence. The results indicated that high selenium exposure had a protective effect on cancer risk (pooled OR = 0.78; 95%CI: 0.73–0.83). The results of linear and nonlinear dose-response analysis indicated that high serum/plasma selenium and toenail selenium had the efficacy on cancer prevention. However, we did not find a protective efficacy of selenium supplement. High selenium exposure may have different effects on specific types of cancer. It decreased the risk of breast cancer, lung cancer, esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, and prostate cancer, but it was not associated with colorectal cancer, bladder cancer, and skin cancer. PMID:26786590

TERT rs2736098 polymorphism and cancer risk: results of a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Qi, Hao-Yu; Zou, Peng; Zhao, Lin; Zhu, Jue; Gu, Ai-Hua

2012-01-01

Several studies have demonstrated associations between the TERT rs2736098 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and susceptibility to cancer development. However, there are conflicting results. A systematic meta-analysis was therefore performed to establish the cancer risk associated with the polymorphism. In this meta-analysis, a total of 6 case-control studies, including 5,567 cases and 6,191 controls, were included. Crude odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were used to assess the strength of associations in several genetic models. Our results showed no association reaching the level of statistical significance for overall risk. Interestingly, in the stratified analyses (subdivided by ethnicity), significantly increased risks were found in the Asian subgroup which indicates the TERT rs2736098 polymorphism may have controversial involvement in cancer susceptibility. Overall, this meta-analysis indicates that the TERT rs2736098 polymorphism may have little involvement in cancer susceptibility.

Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

2014-11-01

As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe themore » RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.« less

The Ecology of Early Childhood Risk: A Canonical Correlation Analysis of Children’s Adjustment, Family, and Community Context in a High-Risk Sample

PubMed Central

Aiyer, Sophie M.; Wilson, Melvin N.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Dishion, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

The ecology of the emergence of psycho-pathology in early childhood is often approached by the analysis of a limited number of contextual risk factors. In the present study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of ecological risk by conducting a canonical correlation analysis of 13 risk factors at child age 2 and seven narrow-band scales of internalizing and externalizing problem behaviors at child age 4, using a sample of 364 geographically and ethnically diverse, disadvantaged primary caregivers, alternative caregivers, and preschool-age children. Participants were recruited from Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children sites and were screened for family risk. Canonical correlation analysis revealed that (1) a first latent combination of family and individual risks of caregivers predicted combinations of child emotional and behavioral problems, and that (2) a second latent combination of contextual and structural risks predicted child somatic complaints. Specifically, (1) the combination of chaotic home, conflict with child, parental depression, and parenting hassles predicted a co-occurrence of internalizing and externalizing behaviors, and (2) the combination of father absence, perceived discrimination, neighborhood danger, and fewer children living in the home predicted child somatic complaints. The research findings are discussed in terms of the development of psychopathology, as well as the potential prevention needs of families in high-risk contexts. PMID:23700232

Analysis of exogenous components of mortality risks.

PubMed

Blinkin, V L

1998-04-01

A new technique for deriving exogenous components of mortality risks from national vital statistics has been developed. Each observed death rate Dij (where i corresponds to calendar time (year or interval of years) and j denotes the number of corresponding age group) was represented as Dij = Aj + BiCj, and unknown quantities Aj, Bi, and Cj were estimated by a special procedure using the least-squares principle. The coefficients of variation do not exceed 10%. It is shown that the term Aj can be interpreted as the endogenous and the second term BiCj as the exogenous components of the death rate. The aggregate of endogenous components Aj can be described by a regression function, corresponding to the Gompertz-Makeham law, A(tau) = gamma + beta x e alpha tau, where gamma, beta, and alpha are constants, tau is age, A(tau) [symbol: see text] tau = tau j identical to A(tau j) identical to Aj and tau j is the value of age tau in jth age group. The coefficients of variation for such a representation does not exceed 4%. An analysis of exogenous risk levels in the Moscow and Russian populations during 1980-1995 shows that since 1992 all components of exogenous risk in the Moscow population had been increasing up to 1994. The greatest contribution to the total level of exogenous risk was lethal diseases, and their death rate was 387 deaths per 100,000 persons in 1994, i.e., 61.9% of all deaths. The dynamics of exogenous mortality risk change during 1990-1994 in the Moscow population and in the Russian population without Moscow had been identical: the risk had been increasing and its value in the Russian population had been higher than that in the Moscow population.

Meta-analysis on night shift work and risk of metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Wang, F; Zhang, L; Zhang, Y; Zhang, B; He, Y; Xie, S; Li, M; Miao, X; Chan, E Y Y; Tang, J L; Wong, M C S; Li, Z; Yu, I T S; Tse, L A

2014-09-01

This study aims to quantitatively summarize the association between night shift work and the risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS), with special reference to the dose-response relationship with years of night shift work. We systematically searched all observational studies published in English on PubMed and Embase from 1971 to 2013. We extracted effect measures (relative risk, RR; or odd ratio, OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) from individual studies to generate pooled results using meta-analysis approach. Pooled RR was calculated using random- or fixed-effect model. Downs and Black scale was applied to assess the methodological quality of included studies. A total of 13 studies were included. The pooled RR for the association between 'ever exposed to night shift work' and MetS risk was 1.57 (95% CI = 1.24-1.98, pheterogeneity  = 0.001), while a higher risk was indicated in workers with longer exposure to night shifts (RR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.32-2.36, pheterogeneity  = 0.936). Further stratification analysis demonstrated a higher pooled effect of 1.84 (95% CI = 1.45-2.34) for studies using the NCEP-ATPIII criteria, among female workers (RR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.10-2.34) and the countries other than Asia (RR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.39-1.95). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the results. No evidence of publication bias was detected. The present meta-analysis suggested that night shift work is significantly associated with the risk of MetS, and a positive dose-response relationship with duration of exposure was indicated. © 2014 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2014 World Obesity.

The association between dietary zinc intake and risk of pancreatic cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Li; Gai, Xuesong

2017-06-30

Previous reports have suggested a potential association on dietary zinc intake with the risk of pancreatic cancer. Since the associations between different studies were controversial, we therefore conducted a meta-analysis to reassess the relationship between dietary zinc intake and pancreatic cancer risk. A comprehensive search from the databases of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Medline was performed until January 31, 2017. Relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) derived by using random effect model was used. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias were conducted. Our meta-analysis was based on seven studies involving 1659 cases, including two prospective cohort studies and five case-control studies. The total RR of pancreatic cancer risk for the highest versus the lowest categories of dietary zinc intake was 0.798 (0.621-0.984), with its significant heterogeneity among studies ( I 2 =58.2%, P =0.026). The average Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS) score was 7.29, suggesting a high quality. There was no publication bias in the meta-analysis about dietary zinc intake on the risk of pancreatic cancer. Subgroup analyses showed that dietary zinc intake could reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer in case-control studies and among American populations. In conclusion, we found that highest category of dietary zinc intake can significantly reduce the risk of pancreatic cancer, especially among American populations. © 2017 The Author(s).

A comparative critical study between FMEA and FTA risk analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristea, G.; Constantinescu, DM

2017-10-01

Today there is used an overwhelming number of different risk analyses techniques with acronyms such as: FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) and its extension FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis), DRBFM (Design Review by Failure Mode), FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) and and its extension ETA (Event Tree Analysis), HAZOP (Hazard & Operability Studies), HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) and What-if/Checklist. However, the most used analysis techniques in the mechanical and electrical industry are FMEA and FTA. In FMEA, which is an inductive method, information about the consequences and effects of the failures is usually collected through interviews with experienced people, and with different knowledge i.e., cross-functional groups. The FMEA is used to capture potential failures/risks & impacts and prioritize them on a numeric scale called Risk Priority Number (RPN) which ranges from 1 to 1000. FTA is a deductive method i.e., a general system state is decomposed into chains of more basic events of components. The logical interrelationship of how such basic events depend on and affect each other is often described analytically in a reliability structure which can be visualized as a tree. Both methods are very time-consuming to be applied thoroughly, and this is why it is oftenly not done so. As a consequence possible failure modes may not be identified. To address these shortcomings, it is proposed to use a combination of FTA and FMEA.

Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perelló, Josep

2007-09-01

Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Failures Based on Fuzzy Event Tree Method

PubMed Central

Fu, Xiao; Gu, Chong-Shi; Su, Huai-Zhi; Qin, Xiang-Nan

2018-01-01

Earth-rock dams make up a large proportion of the dams in China, and their failures can induce great risks. In this paper, the risks associated with earth-rock dam failure are analyzed from two aspects: the probability of a dam failure and the resulting life loss. An event tree analysis method based on fuzzy set theory is proposed to calculate the dam failure probability. The life loss associated with dam failure is summarized and refined to be suitable for Chinese dams from previous studies. The proposed method and model are applied to one reservoir dam in Jiangxi province. Both engineering and non-engineering measures are proposed to reduce the risk. The risk analysis of the dam failure has essential significance for reducing dam failure probability and improving dam risk management level. PMID:29710824

Fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and possible risk factors: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Moayeri, Ardeshir; Mohamadpour, Mahmoud; Mousavi, Seyedeh Fatemeh; Shirzadpour, Ehsan; Mohamadpour, Safoura; Amraei, Mansour

2017-01-01

Aim Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have an increased risk of bone fractures. A variable increase in fracture risk has been reported depending on skeletal site, diabetes duration, study design, insulin use, and so on. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the association between T2DM with fracture risk and possible risk factors. Methods Different databases including PubMed, Institute for Scientific Information, and Scopus were searched up to May 2016. All epidemiologic studies on the association between T2DM and fracture risk were included. The relevant data obtained from these papers were analyzed by a random effects model and publication bias was assessed by funnel plot. All analyses were done by R software (version 3.2.1) and STATA (version 11.1). Results Thirty eligible studies were selected for the meta-analysis. We found a statistically significant positive association between T2DM and hip, vertebral, or foot fractures and no association between T2DM and wrist, proximal humerus, or ankle fractures. Overall, T2DM was associated with an increased risk of any fracture (summary relative risk =1.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.06) and increased with age, duration of diabetes, and insulin therapy. Conclusion Our findings strongly support an association between T2DM and increased risk of overall fracture. These findings emphasize the need for fracture prevention strategies in patients with diabetes. PMID:28442913

76 FR 65317 - 60-Day Notice of Proposed Information Collection: DS-4184, Risk Management and Analysis (RAM)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-20

..., Risk Management and Analysis (RAM) ACTION: Notice of request for public comments. SUMMARY: The... of 1995. Title of Information Collection: Risk Analysis and Management. OMB Control Number: None.... Methodology: The State Department, is implementing a Risk Analysis and Management Program to vet potential...

Alcohol Intake and Risk of Thyroid Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

PubMed

Hong, Seung-Hee; Myung, Seung-Kwon; Kim, Hyeon Suk

2017-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess whether alcohol intake is associated with the risk of thyroid cancer by a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in June of 2015 to locate eligible studies. We included observational studies such as cross-sectional studies, case-control studies, and cohort studies reporting odd ratios (ORs) or relative risk (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We included 33 observational studies with two cross-sectional studies, 20 case-controls studies, and 11 cohort studies, which involved a total of 7,725 thyroid cancer patients and 3,113,679 participants without thyroid cancer in the final analysis. In the fixed-effect model meta-analysis of all 33 studies, we found that alcohol intake was consistently associated with a decreased risk of thyroid cancer (OR or RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.83; I 2 =38.6%). In the subgroup meta-analysis by type of study, alcohol intake also decreased the risk of thyroid cancer in both case-control studies (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.92; I 2 =29.5%; n=20) and cohort studies (RR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.82; I 2 =0%; n=11). Moreover, subgroup meta-analyses by type of thyroid cancer, gender, amount of alcohol consumed, and methodological quality of study showed that alcohol intake was significantly associated with a decreased risk of thyroid cancer. The current meta-analysis of observational studies found that, unlike most of other types of cancer, alcohol intake decreased the risk of thyroid cancer.